A Multi-Proxy Paradigm in the Pursuit of Ocean Paleoredox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbar, A. D.; Duan, Y.; Kendall, B.; Reinhard, C.; Severmann, S.; Lyons, T. W.

2011-12-01

The geologic record provides abundant evidence for variations in ocean oxygenation throughout Earth history. Expansion of ocean anoxic zones is expected in the future as a consequence of global climate change, with attendant effects on global nutrient inventories, carbon cycling and fluxes of trace greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Therefore, studying ancient ocean redox variations not only teaches us about the history of the Earth system, but also provides insights into how the system may respond to analogous human perturbations. However, the extent, duration, causes, and consequences of most past variations are poorly understood. This problem motivates the development of paleoredox proxies, including novel stable isotope systems such as Mo, Fe, U and Tl. Experience with these emerging isotope systems demonstrates great promise but also many challenges. The Mo isotope system is illustrative. To first order, the geochemical cycling and isotope systematics of this element are straightforward, making it a useful proxy. However, critical unresolved issues include: (a) uncertainties in the ocean inputs through time; (b) ambiguities about fractionation mechanisms; (c) inadequate understanding of how modern analogs map to ancient systems. Similar challenges confront all the novel isotope systems. The way forward requires integration of multiple isotopic proxies, as well as information gleaned from careful analyses of element concentrations. For example, an episode of Mo enrichment in the 2.5 Ga Mt. McRae Shale is generally interpreted as resulting from buildup of Mo in seawater due to oxidative weathering. This enrichment is therefore thought to indicate a "whiff" of O2 in the environment prior to the Great Oxidation Event that began at 2.4 Ga. Molybdenum isotopes are consistent with this interpretation. However, Mo enrichment due to enhanced input from low-T hydrothermal sources in an anoxic regime cannot be completely excluded given the current state of knowledge of Mo isotope systematics from such sources. By considering sedimentary Fe enrichments together with Fe isotopes, we find that the Mo enrichment correlates with the telltale signature of a shelf-to-basin Fe redox "shuttle". Uranium isotopes also exhibit variations indicative of redox transformations. This multi-proxy dataset therefore paints a robust picture of trace metal redox cycling consistent with the "whiff" interpretation.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

Changes in mid to late Holocene monsoon strength in eastern Mexico inferred from high-resolution maar lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Byrne, R.; Wogau, K.; Bohnel, H.

2013-12-01

Understanding the Holocene variation in central Mexico's summer precipitation can help identify the processes responsible for climatic change and clarify the role of climate in Mesoamerican cultural change. We present proxy results from Aljojuca, a maar lake in the Oriental-Serdan Basin in Mexico's Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The 12 m sediment core from Aljojuca features a laminated, high-resolution proxy archive. A chronology established via radiocarbon dating shows a basal date of 6,200 cal. years B.P. We use fluctuations in pollen, elemental geochemistry, and the stable isotope ratios of authigenic carbonates to reconstruct the timing and duration of mid to late Holocene droughts in central Mexico. We compare these results with geochemical analyses of maar wall rocks and palynological analyses of modern moss polsters to strengthen our interpretations of proxy results. We interpret periods of aridity as periods of reduced summer precipitation and therefore decreased summer monsoon strength. Our results reveal evidence of a gradual decrease in monsoon strength from the mid to late Holocene. We also identify a multi-century dry period between 1,150 and 800 cal yr. BP, coinciding with the abandonment of the nearby fortified city of Cantona. Spatiotemporal analysis of this and other paleoclimatic records reveals region-wide evidence of this ';Terminal Classic' drought, although its timing is spatially heterogeneous. Our results represent one of the only high-resolution mid-Holocene records from the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt.

A Multi-Proxy Investigation into the Biomineralization Pathways of Benthic Invertebrate Taxa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeCorte, I. A.; Liu, Y. W.; Doss, W. C.; Ries, J. B.; Eagle, R.

2016-12-01

Ocean acidification is the result of surface ocean absorption of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and endangers many marine organisms. Decreases in pH and a coupled reduction in CaCO3 saturation state have been shown to disrupt the process of biomineralization within many species of marine calcifiers. Recent studies, however, demonstrate that calcifying organisms respond in diverse ways to changes in pH and CaCO3 saturation state. We examine element ratios (including Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, Li/Ca, and B/Ca) and boron isotope ratios (δ11B) in 7 macro-invertebrate species (blue crab, shrimp, coralline red algae, pencil urchin, purple urchin, temperate coral, and serpulid worm) and compare results to net calcification rates and experimental seawater carbonate system parameters. Correlations between seawater carbonate chemistry and the elemental compositions of biogenic calcite and aragonite vary widely and are highly taxon-specific, ranging from strongly correlated to no significant response—a finding that is consistent with mounting evidence that many marine calcifying organisms regulate the chemistry of the fluid at their site of calcification. A Rayleigh framework is used to interpret the elemental data. We then analyze δ11B of the same samples as a proxy for pH at their site of calcification. Preliminary results suggest that coralline red algae, shrimp, urchin, serpulid worm and temperate coral taxa elevate pH at the site of calcification relative to the organism's ambient seawater. We plan to utilize a multi-proxy approach to examine the biomineralization pathways that influence elemental and boron isotope fractionation during calcification and precipitation of biogenic aragonite and calcite. A better understanding of these biomineralization pathways will help us to predict the responses of benthic invertebrate taxa to ocean acidification, as well as provide insights into drivers of so-called vital effects on elemental and stable boron isotope fractionation within biogenic carbonates—thereby assessing the fidelity of these proxies for reconstructing paleo-environmental change within a diverse range of marine calcifiers.

Synchronous multi-decadal climate variability of the whole Pacific areas revealed in tree rings since 1567

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Cook, Edward; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records - A Synthesis of a Multi-Proxy Approach in Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziehmer, Malin Michelle; Nicolussi, Kurt; Schlüchter, Christian; Leuenberger, Markus

2017-04-01

High-resolution climate reconstructions based on tree-ring proxies are often limited by the individual segment length of living trees selected at the defined sampling sites, which mostly results in relatively short multi-centennial proxy series. A potential extension of living wood records comprise the addition of subfossil and archeological wood remains resulting in chronologies and associated climate reconstructions which are able to cover a few millennia in central Europe (e.g. Büntgen et al., 2011). However, existing multi-millennial tree-ring width chronologies in central Europe rank among the longest continuous chronologies world-wide and span the entire Holocene (Becker et al., 1993; Nicolussi et al. 2009). So far, these chronologies have mainly been used for dating subfossil wood samples, floating chronologies and archeological artifacts, but only in parts for reconstructing climate. Finds of Holocene wood remains in glacier forefields, peat bogs and small lakes allow us not only to establish such long-term tree-ring width records; further they offer the possibility to establish multi-millennial proxy records for the entire Holocene by using a multi-proxy approach which includes both tree-ring width and triple stable isotope ratios. As temperature limits tree growth at the Alpine upper tree line, the existing tree-ring width records are currently limited to reconstruct a single environmental variable. In the framework of the project Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records, we combine tree-ring width, cellulose content as well as carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotope series in a multi-proxy approach which allows the reconstruction of past environments by combining both Holocene wood remains and recent tree samples from two Alpine tree-line species. For this purpose, α-cellulose is prepared from 5-year tree ring blocks following the procedure after Boettger et al. (2007) and subsequently crushed by ultrasonic homogenization (Laumer et al., 2009). The cellulose content is determined for each individual sample and carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios are measured simultaneously (Loader et al., 2015). The isotope records of carbon, oxygen and hydrogen show distinct low-frequency trends for the Early- and Mid-Holocene, but the individual series per proxy are often offset in their isotopic signature. As the sampling sites in our study are distributed along a SW-NE transect, the influence of the site conditions (latitude, longitude, elevation, exposition) and the tree species is tested and subsequently a correction is applied to the individual series. In addition, the tree-ring width records operate as a helpful tool in detecting and attributing the influence of larch budmoth outbreaks on the cellulose content and isotope records. We here present a synthesis of the applied multi-proxy approach and its ability to reconstruct Holocene climate variability for the time span from 9000 to 3500 years b2k covering the Early-Holocene (9000 to 7200 years b2k) and Mid-Holocene (7200 to 4200 years b2k) and the transition to the late Holocene (4200 to 3500 years b2k) as well as the recent 400 years including the modern warming. References Becker, B., & Kromer, B. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 1993, 103(1): 67-71 Boettger, T., et al. Anal. Chem., 2007, 79: 4603-4612 Büntgen, U. et al. Science, 2011, 331(6017): 578-582 Laumer, W., et al. Rapid Commun. Mass Spectrom., 2009, 23: 1934-1940 Loader, N.J., et al. Anal. Chem., 2015, 87: 376-380 Nicolussi K., et al. The Holocene, 2009, 19(6): 909-920

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.;

Centennial-scale winter climate variability over the last two millennia in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on paired δ18O and Mg/Ca in Globorotalia truncatulinoides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortiz, V.; Thirumalai, K.; Richey, J. N.; Quinn, T. M.

2014-12-01

We present a replicated record of paired foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca variations in multi-cores collected from the Garrison Basin (26º43'N, 93º55'W) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Using δ18O (sea surface temperature, SST; sea surface salinity, SSS proxy) and Mg/Ca (SST proxy) variations in non-encrusted planktic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides we produce time series spanning the last two millennia that is characterized by centennial-scale climate variability. We interpret geochemical variations in G. truncatulinoides to reflect winter climate variability because data from a sediment trap, located ~350 km east of the core site, reveal that annual flux of G. truncatulinoides is heavily weighted towards winter (peak production in January-February; Spear et al., 2011). Similar centennial-scale variability is also observed in the foraminiferal geochemistry of Globigerinoides ruber in the same multi-cores, which likely reflect mean annual climate variations. Our replicated results and comparisons to other SST reconstructions from the region lend confidence that the northern GOM surface ocean underwent large, centennial-scale variability, most likely dominated by changes in winter climate. This variability occurred in a time period where climate forcing is small and background conditions are similar to pre-industrial times. References: Spear, J.W.; Poore, R.Z., and Quinn, T.M., 2011, Globorotalia truncatulinoides (dextral) Mg/Ca as a proxy for Gulf of Mexico winter mixed-layer temperature: Evidence from a sediment trap in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Micropaleontology, 80, 53-61.

A High-Resolution Record of Warm Water Inflow and Iceberg Calving in Upernavik Isfjord During the Past 150 Years.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermassen, F.; Andresen, C. S.; Sabine, S.; Holtvoeth, J.; Cordua, A. E.; Wangner, D. J.; Dyke, L. M.; Kjaer, K. H.; Kokfelt, U.; Haubner, K.

2016-12-01

There is a growing body of evidence demonstrating that changes in warm water inflow to Greenlandic fjords are linked to the rapid retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This process is thought to be responsible for a substantial component of the increased mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet over the last two decades. Sediment cores from glaciated fjords provide high-resolution sedimentological and biological proxy records which can be used to evaluate the interplay of warm water inflow and glacier calving over recent time scales. In this study, multiple short cores ( 2 m) from Upernavik Isfjord, West Greenland, were analysed to establish a multi-proxy record of glacier behaviour and oceanographic conditions that spans the past 150 years. The down-core variation in the amount of ice-rafted debris reveals periods of increased glacier calving, and biomarker proxies are used to reconstruct variability in the inflow of warm, Atlantic-sourced water to the fjord. Measurements of the sortable silt grain size are used to reconstruct bottom-current strength; periods of vigorous current flow are assumed to be due to enhanced warm water inflow. Finally, a record of glacier terminus position changes, derived from historical observations and satellite imagery, allows comparison of our new proxy records with the retreat of the ice margin from 1849 onwards. We use these data to assess the relative importance of mechanisms controlling the (rapid) retreat of marine-terminating glaciers in Upernavik Isfjord.

Spatial reconstruction of semi-quantitative precipitation fields over Africa during the nineteenth century from documentary evidence and gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, Sharon E.; Klotter, Douglas; Dezfuli, Amin K.

2012-07-01

The article presents a newly created precipitation data set for the African continent and describes the methodology used in its creation. It is based on a combination of proxy data and rain gauge records. The data set is semi-quantitative, with a "wetness" index of - 3 to + 3 to describe the quality of the rainy season. It covers the period AD 1801 to 1900 and includes data for 90 geographical regions of the continent. The results underscore a multi-decadal period of aridity early in the nineteenth century.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan; Box, Jason E.; Feulner, Georg; Mann, Michael E.; Robinson, Alexander; Rutherford, Scott; Schaffernicht, Erik J.

2015-05-01

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

Multi-proxy records of Eocene vegetation and climatic dynamics from North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldon, N. D.; Smith, S. Y.; Stromberg, C. A.; Hyland, E.; Miller, L. A.

2010-12-01

The Eocene is characterized by a “thermal maximum” in the early part, and a shift to “icehouse” conditions by the end of the epoch. Consequently, this is an interesting time to look at vegetation dynamics and understanding plant responses to environmental change, especially as refinement of global climate models is needed if we are to understand future climate change impacts. Paleobotanical evidence, such as phytoliths (plant silica bodies), and paleoenvironmental indicators, such as paleosols, offer an opportunity to study vegetation composition and dynamics in the absence of macrofossils on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To examine the interaction between paleoclimatic/paleoenvironmental changes and paleovegetation changes, we will compare and contrast two well-dated, high-resolution, multi-proxy records from North America. The margins of the Green River Basin system during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (53-50 Ma) are an extremely important location for understanding ecological composition and potential climatic drivers of North American floral diversification, because this area is widely considered the point of origin for many modern grass clades. We examined paleosols preserved in the fluvial, basin-margin Wasatch Formation preserved near South Pass, Wyoming. Field identification of the paleosols indicated a suite that includes Entisols, Inceptisols, and Alfisols. To reconstruct paleovegetation, pedogenic carbonates were analyzed isotopically, and samples were collected and extracted for phytoliths . By combining these paleobotanical proxies with quantitative climatic proxies on whole rock geochemistry, we will present an integrated vegetation-climate history of the EECO at the margins of the Green River Basin. Second, we will present high-resolution record of vegetation patterns based on phytoliths from a section of the Renova Formation, Timberhills region, Montana dated to 39.2 ± 3 Ma. The section is composed of Alfisols, Entisols, Inceptisols, and composite paleosols superimposed onto floodplain sediments. Phytoliths from 27 paleosol horizons were extracted to reconstruct a high-resolution vegetation history. Phytolith morphotypes are predominantly from forest plants, confirming the presence of forests in Montana ~40 Ma. Tropical elements such as palms (Arecaceae) and spiral gingers (Costaceae) are present throughout the section, suggesting this was a paratropical forest. The high-resolution sampling demonstrates that vegetation shifts between three main dominant plant types: woody forest plants, Costaceae, and grasses. The heterogeneity is likely due to succession and vegetation patchiness. High proportions of grasses are correlated with low numbers of aquatic biosilica (diatoms, sponge spicules, chrysophytes) that suggests that these grasses were tolerant of relatively drier conditions, while Costaceae today inhabit forest gaps and margins so represent a specific microhabitat associated with the forest plants. Taken in concert, these two new studies provide examples of high-resolution, multi-proxy records of paleovegetation that can be compared with regional paleoclimatic reconstructions to examine the interplay between climatic and biotic change.

Immediate replacement of fishing with dairying by the earliest farmers of the northeast Atlantic archipelagos

PubMed Central

Cramp, Lucy J. E.; Jones, Jennifer; Sheridan, Alison; Smyth, Jessica; Whelton, Helen; Mulville, Jacqui; Sharples, Niall; Evershed, Richard P.

2014-01-01

The appearance of farming, from its inception in the Near East around 12 000 years ago, finally reached the northwestern extremes of Europe by the fourth millennium BC or shortly thereafter. Various models have been invoked to explain the Neolithization of northern Europe; however, resolving these different scenarios has proved problematic due to poor faunal preservation and the lack of specificity achievable for commonly applied proxies. Here, we present new multi-proxy evidence, which qualitatively and quantitatively maps subsistence change in the northeast Atlantic archipelagos from the Late Mesolithic into the Neolithic and beyond. A model involving significant retention of hunter–gatherer–fisher influences was tested against one of the dominant adoptions of farming using a novel suite of lipid biomarkers, including dihydroxy fatty acids, ω-(o-alkylphenyl)alkanoic acids and stable carbon isotope signatures of individual fatty acids preserved in cooking vessels. These new findings, together with archaeozoological and human skeletal collagen bulk stable carbon isotope proxies, unequivocally confirm rejection of marine resources by early farmers coinciding with the adoption of intensive dairy farming. This pattern of Neolithization contrasts markedly to that occurring contemporaneously in the Baltic, suggesting that geographically distinct ecological and cultural influences dictated the evolution of subsistence practices at this critical phase of European prehistory. PMID:24523264

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate record may exhibit larger low-frequency variability than GCMs currently simulate, indicative of incomplete physics and/or forcings.

Proxy comparisons for Paleogene sea water temperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Bar, Marijke; de Nooijer, Lennart; Schouten, Stefan; Ziegler, Martin; Sluijs, Appy; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2017-04-01

Several studies have reconstructed Paleogene seawater temperatures, using single- or multi-proxy approaches (e.g. Hollis et al., 2012 and references therein), particularly comparing TEX86 with foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca. Whereas trends often agree relatively well, absolute temperatures can differ significantly between proxies, possibly because they are often applied to (extreme) climate events/transitions (e.g. Sluijs et al., 2011), where certain assumptions underlying the temperature proxies may not hold true. A more general long-term multi-proxy temperature reconstruction, is therefore necessary to validate the different proxies and underlying presumed boundary conditions. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach using foraminiferal calcite and organic proxies to generate a low-resolution, long term (80 Myr) paleotemperature record for the Bass River core (New Jersey, North Atlantic). Oxygen (δ18O), clumped isotopes (Δ47) and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera, as well as the organic proxies MBT'-CBT, TEX86H, U37K' index and the LDI were determined on the same sediments. The youngest samples of Miocene age are characterized by a high BIT index (>0.8) and fractional abundance of the C32 1,15-diol (>0.6; de Bar et al., 2016) and the absence of foraminifera, all suggesting high continental input and shallow depths. The older sediment layers (˜30 to 90 Ma) display BIT values and C32 1,15-diol fractional abundances <0.3, implying marine conditions. The temperature records (˜30 to 90 Ma) show the global transition from the Cretaceous to Eocene greenhouse world into the icehouse climate. The TEX86H sea surface temperature (SST) record shows a gradual cooling over time of ˜35 to 20 ˚ C, whereas the δ18O-derived bottom water temperatures (BWTs) decrease from ˜20 to 10 ˚ C, and the Mg/Ca and Δ47-derived BWTs decrease from ˜25 to 15 ˚ C. The absolute temperature difference between the δ18O and Δ47, might be explained by local variations in seawater δ18O composition. Similarly, the difference in Mg/Ca- and δ18O-derived BWTs is likely caused by uncertainties in the seawater Mg/Ca model and the relationship between the seawater Mg/Ca and the incorporation of Mg into the foraminiferal shell. The U37K' index could not be calculated as only di-unsaturated alkenones were identified, indicating that SSTs were > 28 ˚ C. In contrast, LDI temperatures were considerably lower and varied only between 21 and 19 ˚ C. MBT'-CBT derived mean annual temperatures for the ages of 9 and 20 Ma align well with the TEX86H SSTs. Overall, the agreement of the paleotemperature proxies in terms of main tendencies, and the covariation with the global benthic oxygen isotope compilation suggests that temperatures in this region varied in concert with global climate variability. The fact that offsets between the different proxies used here remain fairly constant down to 90 Ma ago, indicates that the fundamental mechanisms responsible for the proxy relation to temperature remained constant. de Bar, M. W., et al. (2016), Constraints on the application of long chain diol proxies in the Iberian Atlantic margin, Org. Geochem., 101, 184-195. Hollis, C. J., et al. (2012), Early Paleogene temperature history of the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Reconciling proxies and models, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 349, 53-66. Sluijs, A., et al. (2011), Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Climate of the Past, 7(1), 47-61.

Growth rates and geochemical proxies in Late Campanian bivalves - New insights from micro-X-ray Fluorescence mapping and numerical growth modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, Niels; Goderis, Steven; van Malderen, Stijn; Vanhaecke, Frank; Claeys, Philippe

2017-04-01

Understanding the Late Cretaceous greenhouse climate is of vital importance for understanding present and future climate change. While a lot of good work has been done to reconstruct climate in this interesting period, most paleoclimatic studies have focused on long-term climate change[1]. Alternatively, multi-proxy records from marine bivalves provide us with a unique opportunity to study past climate on a seasonal scale. However, previous fossil bivalve studies have reported ambiguous results with regard to the interpretation of trace element and stable isotope proxies in marine bivalve shells[2]. One major problem in the interpretation of such records is the bivalve's vital effect and the occurrence of disequilibrium fractionation during bivalve growth. Both these problems are linked to the annual growth cycle of marine bivalves, which introduces internal effects on the incorporation of isotopes and trace elements into the shell[3]. Understanding this growth cycle in extinct bivalves is therefore of great importance for the interpretation of seasonal proxy records in their shells. In this study, three different species of extinct Late Campanian bivalves (two rudist species and one oyster species) that were found in the same stratigraphic interval are studied. Micro-X-Ray Fluorescence line scanning and mapping of trace elements such as Mg, Sr, S and Zn, calibrated by LA-ICP-MS measurements, is combined with microdrilled stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis on the well-preserved part of the shells. Data of this multi-proxy study is compared with results from a numerical growth model written in the open-source statistics package R[4] and based on annual growth increments observed in the shells and shell thickness. This growth model is used together with proxy data to reconstruct rates of trace element incorporation into the shell and to calculate the mass balance of stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. In order to achieve this goal, 2D mapping of bivalve shell surfaces is combined with high-precision point measurements and linescans to characterize different carbonate facies within the shell and to model changes in proxy data in three dimensions. Comparison of sub-annual variations in growth rate and shell geometry with proxy data sheds light on the degree to which observed seasonal variations in geochemical proxies are dependent on internal mechanisms of shell growth as opposed to external mechanisms such as climatic and environmental change. The use of three different species of bivalve from the same paleoenvironment allows the examination of species-specific responses to environmental change. This study attempts to determine which proxies in which species of bivalve are suitable for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and will aid future paleoseasonality studies in interpreting seasonally resolved multi-proxy records. References 1 DeConto R.M., et al. Cambridge University Press; 2000. 2 Elliot M, et al., PPP 2009. 3 Steuber T. Geology. 1996. 4 R core team, 2004, www.R-project.org

Multi-proxy evidence for Late Pleistocene-Holocene climatic and environmental changes in Lop-Nur, Xinjiang, Northwest China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, C.; Yang, D.; Peng, Z.; Zhang, Z.; Weiguo, L.; He, J.; Zhou, C.

2008-01-01

A 10.35-m-long sediment core from the Luobei depression in Lop-Nur, Xinjiang, Northwest China, provides detailed information about environmental changes during the Late Pleistocene. The samples taken every 5 cm of the core were analyzed for 10 environmental proxies, including magnetic susceptibility, granularity, chroma, carbonate and loss on ignition (LOI), and pH value. The chronology data are provided by the uranium/thorium disequilibrium dates. The sediments of the section were deposited during the last 32000 years. The results of analysis of 10 proxies were examined using multivariate statistical analysis, and the principal components were calculated. According to the results, the Late Pleistocene sequence contains four climatic and environmental stages appearing in the cycles of cold-wet and warm-dry changes. During 10-9 ka BP, it was the earliest warm episode in the Holocene. Environmental changes in this district were restricted by global change, as suggested by the analysis of glacial-interglacial cycles. But it was different from the mutative trend of a monsoon region in East China because of its own characteristics, which was the situation of cold-wet and warm-dry climate-environment change. The candidate reason may be the uplift of the Tibet Plateau and the westerly wind circulation. ?? Science Press, Institute of Geochemistry, CAS and Springer-Verlag GmbH 2008.

Model Sensitivity to North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing at 8.2 Ka

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrill, Carrie; Legrande, Allegra Nicole; Renssen, H.; Bakker, P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2013-01-01

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Effects of phone versus mail survey methods on the measurement of health-related quality of life and emotional and behavioural problems in adolescents.

PubMed

Erhart, Michael; Wetzel, Ralf M; Krügel, André; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike

2009-12-30

Telephone interviews have become established as an alternative to traditional mail surveys for collecting epidemiological data in public health research. However, the use of telephone and mail surveys raises the question of to what extent the results of different data collection methods deviate from one another. We therefore set out to study possible differences in using telephone and mail survey methods to measure health-related quality of life and emotional and behavioural problems in children and adolescents. A total of 1700 German children aged 8-18 years and their parents were interviewed randomly either by telephone or by mail. Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and mental health problems (MHP) were assessed using the KINDL-R Quality of Life instrument and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) children's self-report and parent proxy report versions. Mean Differences ("d" effect size) and differences in Cronbach alpha were examined across modes of administration. Pearson correlation between children's and parents' scores was calculated within a multi-trait-multi-method (MTMM) analysis and compared across survey modes using Fisher-Z transformation. Telephone and mail survey methods resulted in similar completion rates and similar socio-demographic and socio-economic makeups of the samples. Telephone methods resulted in more positive self- and parent proxy reports of children's HRQoL (SMD < or = 0.27) and MHP (SMD < or = 0.32) on many scales. For the phone administered KINDL, lower Cronbach alpha values (self/proxy Total: 0.79/0.84) were observed (mail survey self/proxy Total: 0.84/0.87). KINDL MTMM results were weaker for the phone surveys: mono-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.31 (mail: r = 0.45); multi-trait-mono-method mean (self/parents) r = 0.29/0.36 (mail: r = 0.34/0.40); multi-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.14 (mail: r = 0.21). Weaker MTMM results were also observed for the phone administered SDQ: mono-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.32 (mail: r = 0.40); multi-trait-mono-method mean (self/parents) r = 0.24/0.30 (mail: r = 0.20/0.32); multi-trait-multi-method mean r = 0.14 (mail = 0.14). The SDQ classification into borderline and abnormal for some scales was affected by the method (OR = 0.36-1.55). The observed differences between phone and mail surveys are small but should be regarded as relevant in certain settings. Therefore, while both methods are valid, some changes are necessary. The weaker reliability and MTMM validity associated with phone methods necessitates improved phone adaptations of paper and pencil questionnaires. The effects of phone versus mail survey modes are partly different across constructs/measures.

Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

2017-10-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

Comparison of multi-proxy data with past1000 model output over the Terminal Classic Period (800-1000 A.D.) on the Yucatan Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pelt, S.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Allen, D. M.

2015-12-01

The decline of the Mayan Civilization is thought to be caused by a series of droughts that affected the Yucatan Peninsula during the Terminal Classic Period (T.C.P.) 800-1000 AD. The goals of this study are two-fold: (a) to compare paleo-model simulations of the past 1000 years with a compilation of multiple proxies of changes in moisture conditions for the Yucatan Peninsula during the T.C.P. and (b) to use this comparison to inform the modeling of groundwater recharge in this region, with a focus on generating the daily climate data series needed as input to a groundwater recharge model. To achieve the first objective, we compiled a dataset of 5 proxies from seven locations across the Yucatan Peninsula, to be compared with temperature and precipitation output from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), which is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) past1000 experiment. The proxy dataset includes oxygen isotopes from speleothems and gastropod/ostrocod shells (11 records); and sediment density, mineralogy, and magnetic susceptibility records from lake sediment cores (3 records). The proxy dataset is supplemented by a compilation of reconstructed temperatures using pollen and tree ring records for North America (archived in the PAGES2k global network data). Our preliminary analysis suggests that many of these datasets show evidence of drier and warmer climate on the Yucatan Peninsula around the T.C.P. when compared to modern conditions, although the amplitude and timing of individual warming and drying events varies between sites. This comparison with modeled output will ultimately be used to inform backward shift factors that will be input to a stochastic weather generator. These shift factors will be based on monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and applied to a modern daily climate time series for the Yucatan Peninsula to produce a daily climate time series for the T.C.P.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.

2017-12-01

Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

Characterizing phantom arteries with multi-channel laser ultrasonics and photo-acoustics.

PubMed

Johnson, Jami L; van Wijk, Kasper; Sabick, Michelle

2014-03-01

Multi-channel photo-acoustic and laser ultrasonic waves are used to sense the characteristics of proxies for healthy and diseased vessels. The acquisition system is non-contacting and non-invasive with a pulsed laser source and a laser vibrometer detector. As the wave signatures of our targets are typically low in amplitude, we exploit multi-channel acquisition and processing techniques. These are commonly used in seismology to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of data. We identify vessel proxies with a diameter on the order of 1 mm, at a depth of 18 mm. Variations in scattered and photo-acoustic signatures are related to differences in vessel wall properties and content. The methods described have the potential to improve imaging and better inform interventions for atherosclerotic vessels, such as the carotid artery. Copyright © 2014 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extending isotopic fractionation in phytoplankton for Phanerozoic pCO2 reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkowski, C. R.; Agostini, S.; Weijers, J.; Schouten, S.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is a keystone in many earth system dynamics, including the biosphere, carbon cycle, and climate. In order to better understand the impact of today's exceptional increases in pCO2 on the future, we look to secular trends in pCO2. Photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation (Ɛp), calculated from the difference between the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of environmental CO2 and biomass, has some of the lowest uncertainty in estimation among CO2 proxies. However, Ɛp is generally applied to species-specific compounds which have an evolution-limited record (e.g. alkenones limited ca. 50 Ma). To extend the use of Ɛp, we explore the general phytoplankton biomarker phytane. As the fossilized side-chain of chlorophyll, phytane is spatially and temporally ubiquitous, with the potential to record pCO2 back to the earliest photoautotrophs in the geologic record. To develop and validate its potential as a pCO2 proxy, we explored phytane in modern environments, in a multi-proxy case study, and in a Phanerozoic reconstruction. As a proof-of-concept, the δ13C of phytane was tested in modern environments at naturally-occurring CO2 vents in Japan and Italy, which showed clear fractionation over the steep CO2 gradient. This was then further tested in a multi-proxy assessment in DSDP site 467 that spans the last 15 Ma, looking at both well-established (i.e. alkenones) and potential (i.e. phytane, steranes, hopanes) pCO2 proxies; phytane represented the average δ13C for these biomarkers. Finally, the δ13C of phytane data over the Phanerozoic was compiled, showing agreement with literature reconstructions of pCO2. Current pCO2 reconstructions are derived from many different types of proxies, which can create incongruities and inconsistencies throughout time, making this single well-constrained proxy that ubiquitously spans the geologic record a useful addition to the palaeo-detective's toolbox.

Climate, environment and society in southern Italy during the last 2000 years. A review of the environmental, historical and archaeological evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadori, Laura; Giraudi, Carlo; Masi, Alessia; Magny, Michel; Ortu, Elena; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Izdebski, Adam

2016-03-01

This paper examines the interrelationship between the natural and human history of Sicily over the last 2000 years. It presents a close comparison of the data from the key multi-proxy site of Lago di Pergusa - located inland in the eastern part of Sicily - with the existing archaeological and textual evidence on the socio-economic processes. The article also includes a review of the available natural proxy archives from the Central Mediterranean. On the basis of the isotope and pollen data from the Lago di Pergusa core PRG2, we identified two humid periods (ca. 450-750 AD and ca. 1400-1800 AD) as well as a dry one (ca. 1100-1350 AD); our evidence corresponds closely with other environmental palaeoclimate proxies from the Mediterranean region. In our synthesis of the environmental, historical and archaeological evidence from southern Italy, we argue that during both periods of increased humidity - that is during the late antique-Byzantine times and during the late medieval and early modern periods - intense agricultural use of the Sicilian landscape developed on an unprecedented scale. This in turn contributed to the impressive demographic and economic expansion visible during these periods. A sudden period of aridity followed the first of these eras of humidity-related agricultural growth. This climatic shift, dated to around 750 AD, corresponds to a decrease in synanthropic taxa and a recovery of arboreal vegetation. We argue that in this case a climatic change contributed to socio-economic decline. Moreover, as this change occurred prior to the Arab invasion of Sicily in AD 827, the environmental processes may help to explain the collapse of Byzantine society on Sicily which, in turn made the Muslim conquest possible. After this event, there occurred a longer period of agricultural decline, lasting until around 1000 AD, after which we see the first signs of a slow recovery. Ongoing research in nearby archaeological sites will help defining if it was a local change or a regional, potentially climate-induced phenomenon. Although textual evidence records considerable population losses during the later Middle Ages as a result of the Black Death, the effects of the plague are not obviously apparent in the pollen data, except for some short term fluctuations.

Evidence of Himalayan uplift as seen in Neogene records of Indian monsoon variability from ODP Hole 722B, NW Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthusamy, Prakasam; Gupta, Anil K.; Saini, Naresh K.

2013-04-01

The Indian monsoon is one of the most interesting climatic features on Earth impacting most populous countries of South and East Asia. It is marked by seasonal reversals of wind direction with southwesterly winds in summer (June-September) and northeasterly winds in winter (December-February). The monsoon not only impacts socioeconomic conditions of Asia but also brings important changes in fauna and flora, ocean upwelling and primary productivity in the Arabian Sea. The Himalaya has undergone several phases of rapid uplift and exhumation since the early Miocene which led to major intensification of the Indian monsoon. The monsoon is driven by the thermal contrast between land and sea, and is intimately linked with the latitudinal movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The effect of Indian monsoon variability and the Himalayan uplift can be seen in numerous proxy records across the region. In this study we discussed about the Indian monsoon intensification and the Himalayan uplift since the early Miocene based on multi proxy records such as planktic foraminiferal relative abundances (Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and mixed layer species), total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3 and elemental data from ODP Hole 722B (2028 mbsf), northwestern Arabian Sea. The TOC, CaCO3 and elemental variations of the ODP Hole 722B suggest multi phase of monsoonal intensification and Himalayan uplifts. Our results suggest that in the early Miocene (23.03 Ma) to ~15Ma, the wind strength and productivity were low. A major change is observed at ~15 Ma, during which time numerous proxies show abrupt changes. TOC, CaCO3 and Elemental analyses results reveal that a major change in the productivity, wind strength and chemical weathering starts around 15 Ma and extends up to 10 Ma. This suggests that a major Himalayan uplift occurred during ~15-10 Ma that drove Indian monsoon intensification. A similar change is also observed during 5 to 1 Ma. These long-term paleoclimatic trends correlated to Himalayan uplift. Major peaks in various proxy records correspond with enhanced monsoonal strength and the Himalayan uplift. Keywords: Indian monsoon; Himalayan uplift; Arabian Sea; Productivity; Planktic foraminifera; Total Organic Carbon

A point-by-point multi-scale surface temperature reconstruction method and tests by pseudo proxy experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.

2016-12-01

This study present a multi-scale approach combining Mode Decomposition and Variance Matching (MDVM) method and basic process of Point-by-Point Regression (PPR) method. Different from the widely applied PPR method, the scanning radius for each grid box, were re-calculated considering the impact from topography (i.e. mean altitudes and fluctuations). Thus, appropriate proxy records were selected to be candidates for reconstruction. The results of this multi-scale methodology could not only provide the reconstructed gridded temperature, but also the corresponding uncertainties of the four typical timescales. In addition, this method can bring in another advantage that spatial distribution of the uncertainty for different scales could be quantified. To interpreting the necessity of scale separation in calibration, with proxy records location over Eastern Asia, we perform two sets of pseudo proxy experiments (PPEs) based on different ensembles of climate model simulation. One consist of 7 simulated results by 5 models (BCC-CSM1-1, CSIRO-MK3L-1-2, HadCM3, MPI-ESM-P, and Giss-E2-R) of the "past1000" simulation from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The other is based on the simulations of Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The pseudo-records network were obtained by adding the white noise with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) increasing from 0.1 to 1.0 to the simulated true state and the locations mainly followed the PAGES-2k network in Asia. Totally, 400 years (1601-2000) simulation was used for calibration and 600 years (1001-1600) for verification. The reconstructed results were evaluated by three metrics 1) root mean squared error (RMSE), 2) correlation and 3) reduction of error (RE) score. The PPE verification results have shown that, in comparison with ordinary linear calibration method (variance matching), the RMSE and RE score of PPR-MDVM are improved, especially for the area with sparse proxy records. To be noted, in some periods with large volcanic activities, the RMSE of MDVM get larger than VM for higher SNR cases. It should be inferred that the volcanic eruptions might blur the intrinsic characteristics of multi-scales variabilities of the climate system and the MDVM method would show less advantage in that case.

Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy: medical diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Donna Andrea

2003-04-01

Medical diagnostic criteria for Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy are presented. The strength of the known facts may vary from case to case, and thus there may be different degrees of diagnostic conviction. Therefore, diagnostic criteria for a definitive diagnosis, and a possible diagnosis of Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy are provided. Because the gathering of evidence in a case may, ultimately, diminish or exclude the diagnosis of Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy, diagnostic criteria for the inconclusive determination and the definitely excluded diagnosis are also enunciated.

Climate and tectonic variability during Late Quaternary in western fringe of Tibetan Plateau: case study from Trans-Himalayan ranges of Ladakh, NW India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phartiyal, B.

2016-12-01

The climate system plays an important role in the geomorphological dynamics of a region. The cold, arid, high altitude, tectonically active areas of Ladakh (India) in Trans Himalaya, western Tibetan Plateau is none exception. Noticeable change in the landscape with a shift from fluvial to lacustrine regime at 10000 yrs BP forming big open valley lakes occupying the present day river valleys is attributed to the early Holocene northward advancement of the mean latitudinal position of the summer ITCZ causing wetter conditions in this dry area. The glaciers of the Ladakh range are almost depleted and the northern range glaciers show andrastic retreat in the Quaternary time. Lakes were studied using multi-proxies, to record centennial and decadal scale climatic variability. Spatial and temporal setting of Spituk palaeolake (12600-240 cal yrs BP) along Indus River, was analyzed using multi proxies. The lake that extended for 40-50 km covering an area of 106 km2, was formed after Older Dryas as a result of river blockage by precipitation induced debris flow and seismicity. Two lake phases between 12600-9000 and 5500-3200 cal yrs BP show stable lake conditions and have synchronous relationship between high variation in monsoon intensity, high δ18O values in the Guliya core, rise in temperature and high solar insolation. High magnetic susceptibility and clay content along with diversified diatom and other freshwater algae and land derived organic matter are indicative of fresh water supply leading to high lake level from 4700 yr BP onwards in the present pro-glacial lakes studied. The multi-proxy data provides evidence of much higher and stable lake level during 3700 yr BP and 3000 yr BP onwards due to high water supply in these lake. It is in contrast to the records of weak ISM conditions and low lake level in rest of the part of Indian peninsula during the period. The study also suggests strong western disturbance activity during 4800-3000 yr BP leading to high lake level in this region. The ongoing researches aim to make an inventory/dataset of these records and address the climate-tectonics interaction with respect to the lake outburst consequences.

Conventionalism and Methodological Standards in Contending with Skepticism about Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brumble, K. C.

2012-12-01

What it means to measure and interpret confidence and uncertainty in a result is often particular to a specific scientific community and its methodology of verification. Additionally, methodology in the sciences varies greatly across disciplines and scientific communities. Understanding the accuracy of predictions of a particular science thus depends largely upon having an intimate working knowledge of the methods, standards, and conventions utilized and underpinning discoveries in that scientific field. Thus, valid criticism of scientific predictions and discoveries must be conducted by those who are literate in the field in question: they must have intimate working knowledge of the methods of the particular community and of the particular research under question. The interpretation and acceptance of uncertainty is one such shared, community-based convention. In the philosophy of science, this methodological and community-based way of understanding scientific work is referred to as conventionalism. By applying the conventionalism of historian and philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn to recent attacks upon methods of multi-proxy mean temperature reconstructions, I hope to illuminate how climate skeptics and their adherents fail to appreciate the need for community-based fluency in the methodological standards for understanding uncertainty shared by the wider climate science community. Further, I will flesh out a picture of climate science community standards of evidence and statistical argument following the work of philosopher of science Helen Longino. I will describe how failure to appreciate the conventions of professionalism and standards of evidence accepted in the climate science community results in the application of naïve falsification criteria. Appeal to naïve falsification in turn has allowed scientists outside the standards and conventions of the mainstream climate science community to consider themselves and to be judged by climate skeptics as valid critics of particular statistical reconstructions with naïve and misapplied methodological criticism. Examples will include the skeptical responses to multi-proxy mean temperature reconstructions and congressional hearings criticizing the work of Michael Mann et al.'s Hockey Stick.

Internal Climatic Influences From Secular To Multi-decadal Scales: Comparison Of NAO Reconstructions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; de Vernal, A.

2017-12-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major dominant mode of variability in winter atmospheric circulation, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks in the North Atlantic sector. To understand the role of this internal climatic oscillations on the past climate variability, several proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO were published during the last decades. Two of them are available during the past 1,200 years: a first NAO reconstruction published by Trouet et al. (2009) and a second proposed by Ortega et al. (2015). The major discrepancy between the two reconstructions concerns the transition period between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age. The first NAO reconstruction shows persistent positive phases during the MCA (AD 1000-1300) but this dominant trend is not highlighted in the reconstruction proposed by Ortega et al. (2015), asking the question of the influence of predictors used to reconstruct the NAO signal during the last millennia. In these study, we compare the two NAO reconstructions in order to determine the effect of bi-proxy or multi-proxy approach on the signal reconstructed. Using statistical and wavelet analysis methods, we conclude that the number of predictors used do not have impact on the signal reconstruct. The two reconstructions signals are characterized by similar variabilities expressed from multi-decadal to multi-secular scales. The major trend difference seems to be link to the type of the predictor and particularly the use of Greenland ice cores in the reconstruction proposed in 2015.

Middle to Late Pleistocene multi-proxy record of environmental response to climate change from the Vienna Basin, Central Europe (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcher, Bernhard C.; Frank-Fellner, Christa; Lomax, Johanna; Preusser, Frank; Ottner, Franz; Scholger, Robert; Wagreich, Michael

2017-10-01

Tectonic basins can represent valuable archives of the environmental history. Presented here are the stratigraphy and multi-proxy analyses of two adjacent alluvial fans in the Quaternary active parts of the Vienna Basin, situated at the interface of the Atlantic, European continental and Mediterranean climate. Deposits comprise a sequence of coarse-grained fluvial deposits intercalated by laterally extensive horizons of pedogenically altered fine sediments. To establish palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, fine-grained sequences from a drill core and outcrop data were analysed according to its malacofauna, palaeopedology, susceptibility and sedimentology. The chronological framework is provided by 38 luminescence ages and supported by geomagnetic polarity investigations. Distinct warm periods each associated with a geomagnetic excursion, are recorded in three pedocomplexes formed during the Last Interglacial and two earlier interglacial periods, indicted to correlate with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9 and MIS 11, respectively. Environmental conditions during the early last glacial period (MIS 5, c. 100-70 ka) are reconstructed from mollusc-shell rich overbank fines deposited along a former channel belt, covered by massive sheetflood deposits during MIS 2. Analysed warm phases suggest strong variations in humidity, ranging from steppe to forest dominated environments. The study presents one of the few numerically dated Middle Pleistocene multi-proxy records and one of the most comprehensive malacological datasets covering the early phases of last glacial period of continental Europe.

Psychological Needs, Engagement, and Work Intentions: A Bayesian Multi-Measurement Mediation Approach and Implications for HRD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shuck, Brad; Zigarmi, Drea; Owen, Jesse

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to empirically examine the utility of self-determination theory (SDT) within the engagement-performance linkage. Design/methodology/approach: Bayesian multi-measurement mediation modeling was used to estimate the relation between SDT, engagement and a proxy measure of performance (e.g. work intentions) (N =…

Holocene temperature shifts around Greenland: Paleolimnological approaches to quantifying past warmth and documenting its consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Lasher, G. E.; McFarlin, J. M.; Francis, D. R.; Kelly, M. A.; Langdon, P. G.; Levy, L.; Osburn, M. R.; Osterberg, E. C.

2015-12-01

Insolation-driven warmth across the Arctic during the early to middle Holocene (the Holocene Thermal Maximum, or HTM) represents a geologically accessible analog for future warming and its impacts. Improved constraints on the magnitude and seasonality of HTM warmth around Greenland's margins can advance the use of paleoclimate data to test and improve climate and ice sheet models. Here we present an overview of our recent efforts to reconstruct climate through the Holocene around the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet using multiple proxies in lake sediments. We use insect (chironomid) assemblages to derive quantitative estimates of Holocene temperatures at sites with minimal soil and vegetation development near the eastern, northwestern and western margins of the ice sheet. Our chironomid-based temperature reconstructions consistently imply HTM July air temperatures 3 to 4.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene in these sectors of Greenland. The timing of reconstructed peak warmth differs between sites, with onset varying from ~10 ka to ~6.5 ka, but in good agreement with glacial geology and other evidence from each region. Our reconstructed temperature anomalies are larger than those typically inferred from annually-integrated indicators from the ice sheet itself, but comparable to the few other quantitative summer temperature estimates available from beyond the ice sheet on Greenland. Additional records are needed to confirm the magnitude of HTM warmth and to better define its seasonality and spatial pattern. To provide independent constraints on paleotemperatures and to elucidate additional aspects of Holocene paleoclimate, we are also employing oxygen isotopes of chironomid remains and other aquatic organic materials, and molecular organic proxies, in parallel (see Lasher et al. and McFarlin et al., this meeting). Combined with glacial geologic evidence, these multi-proxy records elucidate diverse aspects of HTM climate around Greenland - including temperature, hydroclimate, and the response of Greenland's glaciers to past climate change.

Arctic temperature and moisture trends during the past 2000 years - Progress from multiproxy-paleoclimate data compilations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell; Routson, Cody; McKay, Nicholas; Beltrami, Hugo; Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Konecky, Bronwen; Saenger, Casey

2017-04-01

Instrumental climate data and climate-model projections show that Arctic-wide surface temperature and precipitation are positively correlated. Higher temperatures coincide with greater moisture by: (1) expanding the duration and source area for evaporation as sea ice retracts, (2) enhancing the poleward moisture transport, and (3) increasing the water-vapor content of the atmosphere. Higher temperature also influences evaporation rate, and therefore precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), the climate variable often sensed by paleo-hydroclimate proxies. Here, we test whether Arctic temperature and moisture also correlate on centennial timescales over the Common Era (CE). We use the new PAGES2k multiproxy-temperature dataset along with a first-pass compilation of moisture-sensitive proxy records to calculate century-scale composite timeseries, with a focus on longer records that extend back through the first millennium CE. We present a new Arctic borehole temperature reconstruction as a check on the magnitude of Little Ice Age cooling inferred from the proxy records, and we investigate the spatial pattern of centennial-scale variability. Similar to previous reconstructions, v2 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature dataset shows that, prior to the 20th century, mean annual Arctic-wide temperature decreased over the CE. The millennial-scale cooling trend is most prominent in proxy records from glacier ice, but is also registered in lake and marine sediment, and trees. In contrast, the composite of moisture-sensitive (primarily P-E) records does not exhibit a millennial-scale trend. Determining whether fluctuations in the mean state of Arctic temperature and moisture were in fact decoupled is hampered by the difficulty in detecting a significant trend within the relatively small number of spatially heterogeneous multi-proxy moisture-sensitive records. A decoupling of temperature and moisture would indicate that evaporation had a strong counterbalancing effect on precipitation and/or that shifting circulation patterns overwhelmed any multi-centennial-scale co-variability.

Correlating wine quality indicators to chemical and sensory measurements.

PubMed

Hopfer, Helene; Nelson, Jenny; Ebeler, Susan E; Heymann, Hildegarde

2015-05-12

Twenty-seven commercial Californian Cabernet Sauvignon wines of different quality categories were analyzed with sensory and chemical methods. Correlations between five quality proxies-points awarded during a wine competition, wine expert scores, retail price, vintage, and wine region-were correlated to sensory attributes, volatile compounds, and elemental composition. Wine quality is a multi-faceted construct, incorporating many different layers. Depending on the quality proxy studied, significant correlations between quality and attributes, volatiles and elements were found, some of them previously reported in the literature.

Reconstructing Holocene temperature and salinity variations in the western Baltic Sea region: a multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Ash, Jeanine L.; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Quintana Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; Van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.; Passey, Benjamin H.; Rønø Clausen, Ole; Bennike, Ole; Andrén, Elinor; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Andrén, Thomas; Filipsson, Helena L.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Slomp, Caroline P.; Bauersachs, Thorsten

2017-12-01

Sediment records recovered from the Baltic Sea during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 provide a unique opportunity to study paleoenvironmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. Such studies contribute to a better understanding of how environmental parameters change in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins. Here we present a multi-proxy-based reconstruction of paleotemperature (both marine and terrestrial), paleosalinity, and paleoecosystem changes from the Little Belt (Site M0059) over the past ˜ 8000 years and evaluate the applicability of inorganic- and organic-based proxies in this particular setting. All salinity proxies (diatoms, aquatic palynomorphs, ostracods, diol index) show that lacustrine conditions occurred in the Little Belt until ˜ 7400 cal yr BP. A connection to the Kattegat at this time can thus be excluded, but a direct connection to the Baltic Proper may have existed. The transition to the brackish-marine conditions of the Littorina Sea stage (more saline and warmer) occurred within ˜ 200 years when the connection to the Kattegat became established after ˜ 7400 cal yr BP. The different salinity proxies used here generally show similar trends in relative changes in salinity, but often do not allow quantitative estimates of salinity. The reconstruction of water temperatures is associated with particularly large uncertainties and variations in absolute values by up to 8 °C for bottom waters and up to 16 °C for surface waters. Concerning the reconstruction of temperature using foraminiferal Mg  /  Ca ratios, contamination by authigenic coatings in the deeper intervals may have led to an overestimation of temperatures. Differences in results based on the lipid paleothermometers (long chain diol index and TEXL86) can partly be explained by the application of modern-day proxy calibrations to intervals that experienced significant changes in depositional settings: in the case of our study, the change from freshwater to marine conditions. Our study shows that particular caution has to be taken when applying and interpreting proxies in coastal environments and marginal seas, where water mass conditions can experience more rapid and larger changes than in open ocean settings. Approaches using a multitude of independent proxies may thus allow a more robust paleoenvironmental assessment.

High-resolution Record of Holocene Climate, Vegetation, and Fire from a Raised Peat Bog, Prince Edward Island, Canadian Maritimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peros, M. C.; Chan, K.; Ponsford, L.; Carroll, J.; Magnan, G.

2014-12-01

Raised peat bogs receive all precipitation and nutrients from the atmosphere and are thus widely used archives for information on past environments and climates. In this paper we provide high-resolution multi-proxy data from a raised bog from northeastern Prince Edward Island, located in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. We studied testate amoeba (a proxy for water table depth), macrocharcoal (a proxy for local-scale fire), peat humification (a proxy for decomposition), plant macrofossils (indicative of local-scale vegetation), and organic matter content (yielding carbon accumulation rates) from a 5.5 m long core lifted from the center of Baltic Bog. Eleven AMS radiocarbon dates show that peat accumulation began before 9000 cal yr BP and continued almost uninterrupted until the present. The macrofossil data show that a transition from a sedge-dominated fen to a sphagnum-dominated bog occurred around 8000 cal yr BP, and sphagnum remained dominant in the bog throughout most of the Holocene. A testate amoeba-based reconstruction of water table depth indicates that conditions were drier during the early Holocene (~8000 to 5000 cal yr BP) and became gradually wetter into the late Holocene. In addition, a number of higher frequency shifts in precipitation are inferred throughout the Holocene on the basis of the testate amoeba and humification results. The macrocharcoal evidence indicates fire—probably in the surrounding forest—was relatively more common during the early Holocene, perhaps due to drier climate conditions. A large influx of charcoal at around 2000 cal yr BP suggests the presence of one or more major fires at this time, and a concurrent decrease in the rate of peat accumulation indicates the fire may have affected the bog itself. The data from Baltic Bog is broadly comparable to other proxy data (in particular pollen studies) from the Canadian Maritimes. This work is important because it: 1) helps us better understand the role of hydroclimatic variability in influencing peat bog ecosystems; and 2), represents one of the few peat-based records of Holocene paleoclimate from the region.

Using Resin-Based 3D Printing to Build Geometrically Accurate Proxies of Porous Sedimentary Rocks.

PubMed

Ishutov, Sergey; Hasiuk, Franciszek J; Jobe, Dawn; Agar, Susan

2018-05-01

Three-dimensional (3D) printing is capable of transforming intricate digital models into tangible objects, allowing geoscientists to replicate the geometry of 3D pore networks of sedimentary rocks. We provide a refined method for building scalable pore-network models ("proxies") using stereolithography 3D printing that can be used in repeated flow experiments (e.g., core flooding, permeametry, porosimetry). Typically, this workflow involves two steps, model design and 3D printing. In this study, we explore how the addition of post-processing and validation can reduce uncertainty in the 3D-printed proxy accuracy (difference of proxy geometry from the digital model). Post-processing is a multi-step cleaning of porous proxies involving pressurized ethanol flushing and oven drying. Proxies are validated by: (1) helium porosimetry and (2) digital measurements of porosity from thin-section images of 3D-printed proxies. 3D printer resolution was determined by measuring the smallest open channel in 3D-printed "gap test" wafers. This resolution (400 µm) was insufficient to build porosity of Fontainebleau sandstone (∼13%) from computed tomography data at the sample's natural scale, so proxies were printed at 15-, 23-, and 30-fold magnifications to validate the workflow. Helium porosities of the 3D-printed proxies differed from digital calculations by up to 7% points. Results improved after pressurized flushing with ethanol (e.g., porosity difference reduced to ∼1% point), though uncertainties remain regarding the nature of sub-micron "artifact" pores imparted by the 3D printing process. This study shows the benefits of including post-processing and validation in any workflow to produce porous rock proxies. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Abrupt and severe 20th Century changes in the fire regimes of southeastern Australia: Evidence from a 3000 year multi-proxy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick; Mooney, Scott; Allen, Kathryn; Willersdorf, Timothy

2015-04-01

Fire is the dominant natural disturbance in southeastern Australia. For millennia it has been the driving force shaping terrestrial ecosystems in the region -- simultaneously killing vegetation and initiating regeneration across whole landscapes. Fire regimes across the region are driven by several factors including climate, vegetation, and ignition sources. Humans have been a significant contributing factor to past and present fire regimes. Prior to European settlement in the late 1700s, Aboriginal Australians used frequent, low-intensity fires to manage vegetation across much of the landscape. European settlement led to the displacement of Aboriginal communities and a shift to active fire suppression and control. This changing approach to fire management is widely believed to have initiated a fundamental shift towards extreme, high-intensity fire events as fuel loads increased. In addition, during the 20th Century prolonged periods of warm, dry conditions have occurred with greater frequency and intensity. The relative importance of climate and fire management practices on contemporary fire regimes is vigorously debated in Australia and is directly relevant to land management policies and their implementation. To put the current fire regime into historical context, we used a multi-proxy approach combining palaeo-charcoal and tree-ring analyses to assess how fire regimes have changed over the last 3000 years in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia. We found almost no evidence of high-intensity fires in the 3000 years that preceded the 20th Century. However, in the mid-20th Century there is a sudden and dramatic increase in the presence of charcoal and the pulsed establishment of trees across the landscape, suggesting a recent shift from low-intensity fires with minimal charcoal signatures to moderate- to high-intensity fires with substantial charcoal inputs. Importantly, the tree-ring data demonstrate that most of these fires were not stand-replacing and led to the establishment of multiple-age cohorts. While there is a clear shift in the fire regime in the 20th Century, the intensification of fire occurs nearly 150 years after European settlement in this area and has led to the establishment of complex, multi-aged forests across the landscape, suggesting an important interaction between fire management practices associated with European settlement and changing climatic conditions.

A Multi-proxy Approach to Using Cave Sediment Carbon Isotopes for Late Holocene Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J. S.; van Beynen, P.

2007-12-01

Carbon isotopes from cave sediments collected from Jennings Cave in Marion County, Florida were analyzed using a multi-proxy approach. Fulvic acids (FAs), humic acids (HAs), black carbon, phytoliths, and bulk organic matter were extracted from the sediments for carbon isotope analysis to determine periods of vegetation change caused by climatic influences during the Late Holocene (~\\ 2,800 years BP). The carbon isotope record ranges from -35‰ to -14‰, exhibiting variability of ~\\ -21‰, within the different proxies, which indicates changes between C3 and C4 vegetation. This likely indicates changes between a sub-tropical forested environment and more arid, grassy plains conditions. These changes in plant assemblages were in response to changes in available water resources, with increased temperatures and evapotranspiration leading to arid conditions and a shift toward less C3 vegetation (increased C4 vegetation) during the MWP. The cave sediment fulvic acid cabon isotopes record agrees well with ä13C values from a speleothem collected nearby that covers the same time period. Prolonged migration of the NAO and ITCZ affects precipitation in Florida and likely caused vegetation changes during these climatic shifts.

Holocene multi-proxy environmental reconstruction from lake Hakluytvatnet, Amsterdamøya Island, Svalbard (79.5°N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gjerde, Marthe; Bakke, Jostein; D'Andrea, William J.; Balascio, Nicholas L.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Vasskog, Kristian; Ólafsdóttir, Sædis; Røthe, Torgeir O.; Perren, Bianca B.; Hormes, Anne

2018-03-01

High resolution proxy records of past climate are sparse in the Arctic due to low organic production that restricts the use of radiocarbon dating and challenging logistics that make data collection difficult. Here, we present a new lake record from lake Hakluytvatnet at Amsterdamøya island (79.5°N), the northwesternmost island on Svalbard. Multi-proxy analyses of lake sediments in combination with geomorphological mapping reveal large environmental shifts that have taken place at Amsterdamøya during the Holocene. A robust chronology has been established for the lake sediment core through 28 AMS radiocarbon ages, and this gives an exceptionally well-constrained age control for a lake at this latitude. The Holocene was a period with large changes in the Hakluytvatnet catchment, and the onset of the Neoglacial (ca. 5 ka) marks the start of modern-day conditions in the catchment. The Neoglacial is characterized by fluctuations in the minerogenic input to the lake as well as internal productivity, and we suggest that these fluctuations are driven by atmospherically forced precipitation changes as well as sea ice extent modulating the amount of moisture that can reach Hakluytvatnet.

Timescale dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jian; Yan, Qing; Wang, Huijun

2018-04-01

Precipitation/humidity proxies are widely used to reconstruct the historical East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations based on the assumption that summer precipitation over eastern China is closely and stably linked to the strength of EASM. However, whether the observed EASM-precipitation relationship (e.g., increased precipitation with a stronger EASM) was stable throughout the past remains unclear. In this study, we used model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III and Community Earth System Model to investigate the stability of the EASM-precipitation relationship over the last millennium on different timescales. The model results indicate that the EASM strength (defined as the regionally averaged meridional wind) was enhanced in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ˜ 950-1250 AD), during which there was increased precipitation over eastern China, and weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ˜ 1500-1800 AD), during which there was decreased precipitation, consistent with precipitation/humidity proxies. However, the simulated EASM-precipitation relationship is only stable on a centennial and longer timescale and is unstable on a shorter timescale. The nonstationary short-timescale EASM-precipitation relationship broadly exhibits a multi-decadal periodicity, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system and has no significant correlation to external forcings. Our results have implications for understanding the discrepancy among various EASM proxies on a multi-decadal timescale and highlight the need to rethink reconstructed decadal EASM variations based on precipitation/humidity proxies.

Culturing Fundamentals Used To Design And Execute A Long-Term Multi-stressor Experiment To Assess Impact Of Deoxygenation, Ocean Acidification, And Warming On Benthic Foraminiferal Community Composition, Growth, And Carbonate Yield: Design And Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, J. M.; Wit, J. C.

2015-12-01

The geochemistry recorded in carbonate foraminiferal tests (shells) is often used as proxy for past oceanographic events and environments. By understanding past oceanic and climatic conditions, we can better predict future climate scenarios, a relevant ability in these times of global change. The fact that foraminifera are biological entities can be pivotal for understanding their geochemical records. Thus, growing foraminifera under known physicochemical conditions and analyzing the geochemistry of their cultured carbonate can yield insightful perspectives for proxy refinement and development. Because parameters often co-vary in nature, proper proxy calibration can only be done with materials grown in strictly controlled and known environments. This presentation will review the various crucial aspects of foraminiferal maintenance and culturing, especially from the perspective of proxy development. These fundamentals were used to design a long-term multi-stressor experiment with oxygen, pCO2 (pH), and temperature as variables to test the single, double or triple threats of deoxygenation, ocean acidification, and oceanic warming. Results on assemblage composition, survivorship and growth of a continental shelf benthic foraminiferal community will be presented. Although one agglutinated morphospecies grew in each of the five treatments, growth of individual calcareous species was more restricted. Initial results indicate that pCO2 was not the factor that impacted communities most. Supported in part by NSF OCE-1219948.

Multi Proxy Observations of Changes in the Late Holocene Paleoenvironment of a South East Texas Reverse Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mckay, M.

2016-12-01

Baffin Bay is a Reverse estuary located in the semi-arid south Texas coastal plain. It receives on average 60-80 cm of precipitation per year with evaporation exceeding precipitation by 60 cm/year. It has experienced a variety of paleoenvironmental influences since its formation as sea levels rose during the Holocene period. Many of these environmental influences include some terrestrial deposits from creeks, and changes in precipitation patterns. One of the most significant influences on the bay was when it was separated from the Gulf of Mexico by the formation of a large Barrier Island (Padre Island) 5,500 years ago. In recent times, Baffin Bay has experienced decreases in water quality. While it is evident that current anthropological inputs (increased nutrient loading, etc.) are contributory, natural factors that include long-term changes in precipitation patterns, and fresh water flows, along with changes in the bays circulation patterns may also influence the functioning of the bay. In this study, short sediment cores ( 1.3-1.7 m) were taken from twelve locations around the main basin and tributaries of the bay. All cores were sampled at either one or five centimetre intervals depending on the technique employed, using several non-destructive and destructive proxy techniques. Chronological control was provided by Cs-137/Pb-210 analyses. Proxy analysis has corresponded well with both with known events and with the assistance of Cs-137/Pb-210 analyses, are able help discern environmental inputs that are of anthropological origin as opposed to those that of a natural origin or cycle.

Millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon variations in South China since the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xisheng; Chu, Guoqiang; Sheng, Mei; Zhang, Shuqin; Li, Jinhua; Chen, Yun; Tang, Ling; Su, Youliang; Pei, Junling; Yang, Zhenyu

2016-10-01

Characterizing spatiotemporal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is critical for full understanding of its behavior, dynamics, and future impacts. The present knowledge about ASM variations since the last glaciation in South China largely relies on several precisely-dated speleothem stable oxygen isotope (δ18 O) records. Although these speleothem δ18 O signals provide useful evidence for regional past environmental changes, their validity for denoting ASM intensity remains a great controversy. The Huguangyan Maar Lake (HML) provides one of the most complete archives of environmental and climatic changes in the tropical-subtropical South and East Asia since the last glaciation. Here we document a continuous centennial- to millennial-scale ASM record over the past 16 ky BP from the high-sedimentation-rate HML sediments. In contrast with the low-amplitude variations of Chinese speleothem-derived δ18 O signals and the Chinese loess-based monsoon precipitation proxy indexes, our multi-proxy records reveal a pattern of high-amplitude regional climatic fluctuations, including fine-scale oscillations during the Bølling-Allerød warming, the 8.2 ka cooling event, and an abrupt climate shift from 6.5-5.9 ka. The existence of Bond-like cold/dry events indicates a distinct influence of the North Atlantic circulation on low-latitude monsoon changes. The broad comparability between the HML paleo-proxies, Chinese speleothem δ18 O records, and the northern hemisphere summer insolation throughout the Holocene, suggests that solar insolation exerts a profound influence on ASM changes. These findings reinforce a model of combined insolation and glacial forcing of the ASM.

Decadal-scale progression of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events - Are warmings at the end of Heinrich-Stadials different from others?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erhardt, T.; Capron, E.; Rasmussen, S.; Schuepbach, S.; Bigler, M.; Fischer, H.

2017-12-01

During the last glacial period proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) events. Marine proxy records from the Atlantic also reveal, that some of the warming events where preceded by large ice rafting events, referred to as Heinrich events. Different mechanisms have been proposed, that can produce DO-like warming in model experiments, however the progression and plausible trigger of the events and their possible interplay with the Heinrich events is still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. We use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt and terrestrial aerosol concentrations over the period 10-60 ka from two Greenland deep ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxy records from one of the cores to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the individual warming events. The timing differences are then used to explore whether the DO warming events that terminate Heinrich-Stadials progressed differently in comparison to those after Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Our analysis indicates no difference in the progression of the warming terminating Heinrich-Stadials and Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Combining the evidence from all warming events in the period, our analysis shows a consistent lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature by approximately one decade. This implies that both the moisture transport to Greenland and the intensity of the Asian winter monsoon changed before the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic was reduced, rendering a collapse of the sea-ice cover as a trigger for the DO events unlikely.

Myths and realities of training in obstetric emergencies.

PubMed

Draycott, Timothy J; Collins, Katherine J; Crofts, Joanna F; Siassakos, Dimitrios; Winter, Cathy; Weiner, Carl P; Donald, Fiona

2015-11-01

Training for intrapartum emergencies is a promising strategy to reduce preventable harm during birth; however, not all training is clinically effective. Many myths have developed around such training. These principally derive from misinformed beliefs that all training must be effective, cheap, independent of context and sustainable. The current evidence base for effective training supports local, unit-based and multi-professional training, with appropriate mannequins, and practice-based tools to support the best care. Training programmes based on these principles are associated with improved clinical outcomes, but we need to understand how and why that is, and also why some training is associated with no improvements, or even deterioration in outcomes. Effective training is not cheap, but it can be cost-effective. Insurers have the fiscal power to incentivise training, but they should demand the evidence of clinical effect; aspiration and proxies alone should no longer be sufficient for funding, in any resource setting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Host, family and community proxies for infections potentially associated with leukaemia.

PubMed

Law, Graham Richard

2008-01-01

Three hypotheses have proposed the involvement of infections in the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, suggesting either a specific leukaemogenic infection or a series of common infections that lead to a dysregulation of the immune system. Much of the evidence for the link with infections has been based on epidemiological observations, often using proxy measures of infection. Proxy measures include population mixing, parental occupation, age distribution of incidence, spatial and space-time clustering of cases, birth order and day care during infancy. This paper discusses the proxies used and examines to what extent a commonly used proxy measure, birth order, is a fair representation of either specific infections or general infectious load. It is clear that although leukaemia, and other diseases, may be linked with infections, one needs to (1) measure specific and general infections with more accuracy and (2) understand how proxy measures relate to real infections in the population.

The Use of Proxy Caches for File Access in a Multi-Tier Grid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brun, R.; Duellmann, D.; Ganis, G.; Hanushevsky, A.; Janyst, L.; Peters, A. J.; Rademakers, F.; Sindrilaru, E.

2011-12-01

The use of proxy caches has been extensively studied in the HEP environment for efficient access of database data and showed significant performance with only very moderate operational effort at higher grid tiers (T2, T3). In this contribution we propose to apply the same concept to the area of file access and analyse the possible performance gains, operational impact on site services and applicability to different HEP use cases. Base on a proof-of-concept studies with a modified XROOT proxy server we review the cache efficiency and overheads for access patterns of typical ROOT based analysis programs. We conclude with a discussion of the potential role of this new component at the different tiers of a distributed computing grid.

The Use of Proxy Caches for File Access in a Multi-Tier Grid Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brun, R.; Dullmann, D.; Ganis, G.

2012-04-19

The use of proxy caches has been extensively studied in the HEP environment for efficient access of database data and showed significant performance with only very moderate operational effort at higher grid tiers (T2, T3). In this contribution we propose to apply the same concept to the area of file access and analyze the possible performance gains, operational impact on site services and applicability to different HEP use cases. Base on a proof-of-concept studies with a modified XROOT proxy server we review the cache efficiency and overheads for access patterns of typical ROOT based analysis programs. We conclude with amore » discussion of the potential role of this new component at the different tiers of a distributed computing grid.« less

Bivalves as indicators of environmental variation and potential anthropogenic impacts in the southern Barents Sea

PubMed Central

Carroll, Michael L.; Johnson, Beverly J.; Henkes, Gregory A.; McMahon, Kelton W.; Voronkov, Andrey; Ambrose, William G.; Denisenko, Stanislav G.

2009-01-01

Identifying patterns and drivers of natural variability in populations is necessary to gauge potential effects of climatic change and the expected increases in commercial activities in the Arctic on communities and ecosystems. We analyzed growth rates and shell geochemistry of the circumpolar Greenland smooth cockle, Serripes groenlandicus, from the southern Barents Sea over almost 70 years between 1882 and 1968. The datasets were calibrated via annually-deposited growth lines, and growth, stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C), and trace elemental (Mg, Sr, Ba, Mn) patterns were linked to environmental variations on weekly to decadal scales. Standardized growth indices revealed an oscillatory growth pattern with a multi-year periodicity, which was inversely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), and positively related to local river discharge. Up to 60% of the annual variability in the Ba/Ca could be explained by variations in river discharge at the site closest to the rivers, but the relationship disappeared at a more distant location. Patterns of δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca together provide evidence that bivalve growth ceases at elevated temperatures during the fall and recommences at the coldest temperatures in the early spring, with the implication that food, rather than temperature, is the primary driver of bivalve growth. The multi-proxy approach of combining the annually integrated information from the growth results and higher resolution geochemical results yielded a robust interpretation of biophysical coupling in the region over temporal and spatial scales. We thus demonstrate that sclerochronological proxies can be useful retrospective analytical tools for establishing a baseline of ecosystem variability in assessing potential combined impacts of climatic change and increasing commercial activities on Arctic communities. PMID:19394657

Characterizing the Lower Paleolithic bone industry from Schöningen 12 II: A multi-proxy study.

PubMed

Julien, Marie-Anne; Hardy, Bruce; Stahlschmidt, Mareike C; Urban, Brigitte; Serangeli, Jordi; Conard, Nicholas J

2015-12-01

Although preservation of Paleolithic faunal assemblages from open-air settings is often poor, the Lower Paleolithic sites of Schöningen provide exceptionally well-preserved mammalian faunal material for investigating hominin/animal relationships. Pleistocene fossil assemblages, however, usually reflect a complex taphonomic history in which natural and anthropogenic processes are often superimposed. A number of examples of osseous finds that resemble tools were recently discovered in the MIS 9 deposits of Schöningen 12 II. Non-anthropogenic agents are known to produce surface modifications mimicking human artifacts and the identification of osseous remains used and/or deliberately modified by ancient hominins is often controversial in such old contexts. Multiple lines of evidence are thus useful for distinguishing between osseous artifacts and "eco-facts". In this paper, the recognition of the use of bone for different technological purposes by late Middle Pleistocene hominins is addressed through a multi-proxy study combining geoarcheology, bone taphonomy, zooarcheology, and use-wear analysis. This allowed the identification of the processes and agents responsible for the formation and modification of the different bone assemblages of Schöningen 12 II. Our analysis points to different types of bones having been likely used as tools. These results expand the diversity of the organic technological repertoire of the Middle Pleistocene hominins, making Schöningen 12 II a remarkable new source of information on osseous technology long before the Upper Paleolithic, the period traditionally viewed as the start of the systematic use of bone tools. Together with other observations of bone tools documented during the Lower and Middle Paleolithic, the results from Schöningen show that archeologists may have underestimated the diversity and importance of osseous technology among archaic hominins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants of neonatal mortality in rural and urban Nigeria: Evidence from a population-based national survey.

PubMed

Adewuyi, Emmanuel O; Zhao, Yun

2017-02-01

Significant reduction in the global burden of neonatal mortality was achieved through the millennium development goals. In Nigeria, however, only a marginal reduction was realized. This study assesses the rural-urban differences in neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and the associated risk factors in Nigeria. The dataset from the 2013 Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS), disaggregated by rural-urban residence (n = 20 449 and 9935, respectively), was explored using univariate, bivariate, and multivariable analysis. Complex samples analysis was applied to adjust for the unequal selection probabilities due to the multi-stage cluster sampling method used in the 2013 NDHS. The adjusted relationship between the outcome and predictor variables was assessed on multi-level logistic regression analysis. NMR for rural and urban populations was 36 and 28 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Risk factors in urban residence were lack of electricity access (adjusted OR [AOR], 1.555; 95%CI: 1.089-2.220), small birth size (as a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 3.048; 95%CI: 2.047-4.537), and male gender (AOR, 1.666; 95%CI: 1.215-2.284). Risk factors in rural residence were small birth size (a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 2.118; 95%CI: 1.600-2.804), and birth interval <2 years (AOR, 2.149; 95%CI: 1.760-2.624). Cesarean delivery was a risk factor both in rural (AOR, 5.038; 95%CI: 2.617-9.700) and urban Nigeria (AOR, 2.632; 95%CI: 1.543-4.489). Determinants of neonatal mortality were different in rural and urban Nigeria, and rural neonates had greater risk of mortality than their urban counterparts. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Assessing the utility of elemental ratios as a paleotemperature proxy in shells of patelloid limpets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graniero, Lauren; Surge, Donna; Gillikin, David

2015-04-01

Archaeological shell and fish middens are rich sources of paleoenvironmental proxy data. Carbonate hard part remains contained in such deposits have been used as archives of coastal marine climate and human-climate interactions. Oxygen isotope records from fast-growing limpet shells potentially capture summer and winter seasons, and thus, approach the full seasonal range of sea surface temperature (SST). Fast-growing shells are often short-lived, providing "snap-shots" of multi-year seasonal cycles. Patelloid limpet shells are common constituents in archaeological middens found along European, African, and South American coastlines. Oxygen isotope ratios of archaeological limpet shells from the genus, Patella, have been used to reconstruct seasonal SST and ocean circulation patterns during the Late Quaternary. Such studies depend on the ability to constrain the oxygen isotope ratio of seawater; therefore, alternative proxies are necessary for coastal localities where this is not possible. Elemental ratios (e.g., Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca) have been used as paleotemperature proxies in corals and foraminifera with varying degrees of success and appear problematic in bivalves. Here, we test whether such elemental ratios are useful as an alternative SST proxy in patelloid limpet shells.

Multi-timescale data assimilation for atmosphere–ocean state estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steiger, Nathan; Hakim, Gregory

2016-06-24

Paleoclimate proxy data span seasonal to millennial timescales, and Earth's climate system has both high- and low-frequency components. Yet it is currently unclear how best to incorporate multiple timescales of proxy data into a single reconstruction framework and to also capture both high- and low-frequency components of reconstructed variables. Here we present a data assimilation approach that can explicitly incorporate proxy data at arbitrary timescales. The principal advantage of using such an approach is that it allows much more proxy data to inform a climate reconstruction, though there can be additional benefits. Through a series of offline data-assimilation-based pseudoproxy experiments,more » we find that atmosphere–ocean states are most skillfully reconstructed by incorporating proxies across multiple timescales compared to using proxies at short (annual) or long (~ decadal) timescales alone. Additionally, reconstructions that incorporate long-timescale pseudoproxies improve the low-frequency components of the reconstructions relative to using only high-resolution pseudoproxies. We argue that this is because time averaging high-resolution observations improves their covariance relationship with the slowly varying components of the coupled-climate system, which the data assimilation algorithm can exploit. These results are consistent across the climate models considered, despite the model variables having very different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, our results also suggest that it may be possible to reconstruct features of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation based on atmospheric surface temperature proxies, though here we find such reconstructions lack spectral power over a broad range of frequencies.« less

New tree-ring evidence for the Late Glacial period from the northern pre-Alps in eastern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinig, Frederick; Nievergelt, Daniel; Esper, Jan; Friedrich, Michael; Helle, Gerhard; Hellmann, Lena; Kromer, Bernd; Morganti, Sandro; Pauly, Maren; Sookdeo, Adam; Tegel, Willy; Treydte, Kerstin; Verstege, Anne; Wacker, Lukas; Büntgen, Ulf

2018-04-01

The rate and magnitude of temperature variability at the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum into the early Holocene represents a natural analog to current and predicted climate change. A limited number of high-resolution proxy archives, however, challenges our understanding of environmental conditions during this period. Here, we present combined dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from 253 newly discovered subfossil pine stumps from Zurich, Switzerland. The individual trees reveal ages of 41-506 years and were growing between the Allerød and Preboreal (∼13‧900-11‧300 cal BP). Together with previously collected pines from this region, this world's best preserved Late Glacial forest substantially improves the earliest part of the absolutely dated European tree-ring width chronology between 11‧300 and 11‧900 cal BP. Radiocarbon measurements from 65 Zurich pines between ∼12‧320 and 13‧950 cal BP provide a perspective to prolong the continuous European tree-ring record by another ∼2000 years into the Late Glacial era. These data will also be relevant for pinpointing the Laacher See volcanic eruption (∼12‧900 cal BP) and two major Alpine earthquakes (∼13‧770 and ∼11‧600 cal BP). In summary, this study emphasizes the importance of dating precision and multi-proxy comparison to disentangle environmental signals from methodological noise, particularly during periods of high climate variability but low data availability, such as the Younger Dryas cold spell (∼11‧700 and 12‧900 cal BP).

Bidding Behavior in a Multi-attribute First-price Auction

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

of applying key features of the multi-unit auction to proxy buyer /seller marginal valuations of the attributes of a job. Two experiments were...compensation package show promise in ascertaining buyer /seller marginal valuations of a job. This research effort was supported by a grant from the...auctions observed in the goods market, as measured by maximizing consumer and producer surplus, are likely to have promising applications to labor markets

Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6745-6764. http://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2k Consortium, 2017: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data, 1-33. http://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Evaluation of Patient and Proxy Responses on the Activity Measure for Post Acute Care

PubMed Central

Jette, Alan M.; Ni, Pengsheng; Rasch, Elizabeth K.; Appelman, Jed; Sandel, M. Elizabeth; Terdiman, Joseph; Chan, Leighton

2012-01-01

Background and Purpose Our objective was to examine the agreement between adult patients with stroke and family member or clinician proxies in Activity Measure for Post Acute Care (AM-PAC) summary scores for daily activity, basic mobility, and applied cognitive function. Methods This study involved 67 patients with stroke admitted to a hospital within the Kaiser Permanente of Northern California system and were participants in a parent study on stroke outcomes. Each participant and proxy respondent completed the AM-PAC by personal or telephone interview at the point of hospital discharge and/or during one or more transitions to different post-acute care settings. Results The results suggest that for patients with a stroke proxy AM-PAC data are robust for family or clinician proxy assessment of basic mobility function, clinician proxy assessment of daily activity function, but less robust for family proxy assessment of daily activity function and for all proxy groups’ assessment of applied cognitive function. The pattern of disagreement between patient and proxy was, on average, relatively small and random. There was little evidence of systematic bias between proxy and patient reports of their functional status. The degree of concordance between patient and proxy was similar for those with moderate to severe strokes compared with mild strokes. Conclusions Patient and proxy ratings on the AM-PAC achieved adequate agreement for use in stroke research where using proxy respondents could reduce sample selection bias. The AM-PAC data can be implemented across institutional as well as community care settings while achieving precision and reducing respondent burden. PMID:22343646

Holocene climate dynamics in the Eastern Italian Alps: a multi-proxy study from ice and peat bogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Segnana, Michela; Festi, Daniela; Oeggl, Klaus; Barbante, Carlo

2014-05-01

The Eastern Italian Alps are located near one of the areas in the world with some of the longest records of extreme environmental use by human activity. In this area, paleo-climate studies are hampered by the lack of high-resolution multi-proxy records with adequate chronological control. With this project, we propose to reconstruct Holocene climatic and environmental variations in the Eastern Italian Alps using terrestrial and glaciological archives. We aim to study the characteristics of different climate stages in this sector of the Alps using an ice core drilled on the top of the Ortles glacier (46°30' N, 10°32 E, 3850 m a.s.l.) and ombrotrophic peat bog records from the Dolomites (Danta di Cadore, 46°34' N, 12°33 E, 1400 m a.s.l. and Coltrondo 46°39'28.37''N 12°26'59.17''E, 1800 m a.s.l., Belluno province). The study of global climatic change require a holistic and multi-proxy approach to better understand several complex and often non-linear relationships. In the Italian Alps our study on peat cores represents the first attempt where a multi-proxy approach is applied, and here we report our first results. A 7.0 m peat sequence was extracted in Danta di Cadore. The depth-age scale, based upon independent 14C and 210Pb dates and modeled with the Clam method (Blaauw, 2010), demonstrates that the archive covers more than 13,200 years (cal BP). We determined physical proprieties, Ca and Ti trends, pore water pH, conductivity, and Ca/Mg ratios to identify changes in trophic conditions. The results confirm that the uppermost 400 cm are composed of ombrotrophic peat representing the longest Eastern Alpine ombrotrophic record yet obtained, covering the last 7,000 years. The oldest radiocarbon age (13,200 years cal BP) provides evidence that, during the Bölling-Alleröd interstadial, the upper part of the Piave Glacier was ice-free up to 1400 m a.s.l.. At that time pollen assemblages show that a conifer forest characterized the local vegetation. This forest was then affected by the climatic cooling of the Younger Dryas, which caused an opening of the vegetation. The climatic amelioration occurring at the onset of the Holocene favored the local expansion of warmth-demanding species. X-ray Fluorescence Core Scanner (XRF-CS) analysis was applied for the first time on Eastern Alpine peat sequences. XRF-CS signals were calibrated with ICP-MS, showing very high correlation and demonstrating that the XRF-CS technique provides reliable quantitative data. Results provide information about geochemical processes occurring in the bog. The impact of mining activity was also evaluated. Concentration levels and enrichment factors (EFs) of several trace elements such as Pb, Ag and Cd correspond to the historical data about mining activities in the Cadore region. Lead isotopes ratios were measured to identify natural and anthropogenic sources of Pb emissions. Results show an increase of Pb deriving from fuel combustion over the last decades that gradually overlie the impacts of mining activity. The decreasing 206Pb/207Pb trend reached its minimum value of 1.153 in the 1990s and then increased again. In these years, Italy started to follow EU rules to limit global pollutants in the atmosphere, and finally banned leaded fuels in 2002. Both 206Pb/207Pb ratio and Pb fluxes show a particular event between 1975 and 1980: this behavior is characteristic of the ILE (Isotopic Lead Experiment), a large-scale isotopic tracer experiment which was carried out in the Piedmont region (N-W Italy). This multi-proxy approach that integrates, using new chronological insights, chemical physical and biological features of the core, improves our understanding of Eastern Alpine Holocene climate, helping to delineate biotic and abiotic responses to climate dynamics during the present interglacial. Blaauw, M. 2010. Methods and code for 'classical' age modeling of radiocarbon sequences. Quarternary Geochronology, 5: 512-518.

Comment on "Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?" by A. Fiori, A. Zarlenga, H. Gotovac, I. Jankovic, E. Volpi, V. Cvetkovic, and G. Dagan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuman, Shlomo P.

2016-07-01

Fiori et al. (2015) examine the predictive capabilities of (among others) two "proxy" non-Fickian transport models, MRMT (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer) and CTRW (Continuous-Time Random Walk). In particular, they compare proxy model predictions of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a sequence of control planes with near-ergodic BTCs generated through two- and three-dimensional simulations of nonreactive, mean-uniform advective transport in single realizations of stationary, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The authors find fitted proxy model parameters to be nonunique and devoid of clear physical meaning. This notwithstanding, they conclude optimistically that "i. Fitting the proxy models to match the BTC at [one control plane] automatically ensures prediction at downstream control planes [and thus] ii. … the measured BTC can be used directly for prediction, with no need to use models underlain by fitting." I show that (a) the authors' findings follow directly from (and thus confirm) theoretical considerations discussed earlier by Neuman and Tartakovsky (2009), which (b) additionally demonstrate that proxy models will lack similar predictive capabilities under more realistic, non-Markovian flow and transport conditions that prevail under flow through nonstationary (e.g., multiscale) media in the presence of boundaries and/or nonuniformly distributed sources, and/or when flow/transport are conditioned on measurements.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) - A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C. G.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-09-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7-8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2-4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1-2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-01-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

Potential for tree rings to reveal spatial patterns of past drought variability across western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Alison J.; Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Grierson, Pauline F.

2018-02-01

Proxy records have provided major insights into the variability of past climates over long timescales. However, for much of the Southern Hemisphere, the ability to identify spatial patterns of past climatic variability is constrained by the sparse distribution of proxy records. This is particularly true for mainland Australia, where relatively few proxy records are located. Here, we (1) assess the potential to use existing proxy records in the Australasian region—starting with the only two multi-century tree-ring proxies from mainland Australia—to reveal spatial patterns of past hydroclimatic variability across the western third of the continent, and (2) identify strategic locations to target for the development of new proxy records. We show that the two existing tree-ring records allow robust reconstructions of past hydroclimatic variability over spatially broad areas (i.e. > 3° × 3°) in inland north- and south-western Australia. Our results reveal synchronous periods of drought and wet conditions between the inland northern and southern regions of western Australia as well as a generally anti-phase relationship with hydroclimate in eastern Australia over the last two centuries. The inclusion of 174 tree-ring proxy records from Tasmania, New Zealand and Indonesia and a coral record from Queensland did not improve the reconstruction potential over western Australia. However, our findings suggest that the addition of relatively few new proxy records from key locations in western Australia that currently have low reconstruction skill will enable the development of a comprehensive drought atlas for the region, and provide a critical link to the drought atlases of monsoonal Asia and eastern Australia and New Zealand.

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing the Causal Components of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosnold, W. D.; Todhunter, P. E.; Dong, X.; Rundquist, B.; Majorowicz, J.; Blackwell, D. D.

2004-05-01

Separation of climate forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases from natural radiative climate forcing is difficult because the composite temperature signal in the meteorological and multi-proxy temperature records cannot be resolved directly into radiative forcing components. To address this problem, we have initiated a large-scale, multidisciplinary project to test coherence between ground surface temperatures (GST) reconstructed from borehole T-z profiles, surface air temperatures (SAT), soil temperatures, and solar radiation. Our hypothesis is that radiative heating and heat exchange between the ground and the air directly control the ground surface temperature. Consequently, borehole T-z measurements at multi-year intervals spanning time periods when solar radiation, soil and air temperatures have been recorded should enable comparison of the thermal energy stored in the ground to these quantities. If coherence between energy storage, solar radiation, GST, SAT and multi-proxy temperature data can be discerned for a one or two decade scale, synthesis of GST and multi-proxy data over the past several centuries may enable us to separately determine the anthropogenic and natural forcings of climate change. The data we are acquiring include: (1) New T-z measurements in boreholes previously used in paleoclimate and heat flow research in Canada and the United States from the 1970's to the present. (2) Meteorological data from the US Historical Climatology Network and the Automated Weather Data Network of the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and Environment Canada. (3) Direct and remotely sensed data on land use, environment, and soil properties at selected borehole and meteorological sites for the periods between borehole observations. The project addresses three related questions: What is the coherence between the GST, SAT, soil temperatures and solar radiation? Have microclimate changes at borehole sites and climate stations affected temperature trends? If good coherence is obtained, can the coherence between thermal energy stored in the ground and radiative forcing during the time between T-z measurements be extended several centuries into the past?

Marine sedimentary coring and high-quality, multi-proxy records in the high-latitude North Pacific: a synthesis of paleoceanographic cruise and research effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borreggine, M. J.; Myhre, S. E.; Smith-Mislan, A.; Davis, C. V.; Deutsch, C.

2016-12-01

We assessed sedimentary coring efforts, data acquisition and publications from the subpolar North Pacific and marginal seas from 1951-2015. We found a total of 1,249 sediment cores collected by American, French, Japanese and Russian research vessels across the Subarctic Pacific (639 cores), Alaskan Gyre (8 cores), Sea of Okhotsk (270 cores), Bering Sea (120 cores), and the Sea of Japan (212 cores). Of these, 27% are investigated in peer-reviewed publications; this fraction varies from the Subarctic Pacific (18%), Alaskan Gyre (100%), Sea of Okhotsk (33%), Bering Sea (57%), and the Sea of Japan (25%). We assess the biological, geochemical, isotopic, and stratigraphic lines of evidence available for these cores, alongside coring technology, location, depth, cruise and vessel metadata. Coring effort peaked in 1996, 2009, and 2010 where 86, 90, and 67 cores, respectively, were recovered in the five regions collectively. Piston cores are the most common (347 cores) of the 24 different coring technologies used in the last 64 years. Published sedimentation rates range across the Subarctic Pacific (0.132-208 cm/ka), Alaskan Gyre (9-10,000 cm/ka), Sea of Okhotsk (0.7-115.5 cm/ka), Bering Sea (3-250 cm/ka), and the Sea of Japan (0.5-25 cm/ka), with the highest rates in the Alaskan Gyre. Age model development has transitioned from singular techniques to multiproxy approaches. Recent chronologies are built using a mix of isotope stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, tephrochronology, % opal, color, and lithophysical proxies. Out of 275 published chronologies for the North Pacific, 132 (48%) are built with radiocarbon dating. Sedimentary data in the North Pacific includes biological, geochemical, isotopic, and stratigraphic analyses, and we document all proxy evidence to-date across all cores assessed. This database of coring and publication provides a unique resource and comprehensive assessment to the paleoceanographic community, can be used to identify strengths and weaknesses in North Pacific paleoceanography, and will be made publicly available. Additionally, the database is used to recreate past sea ice, temperature, and oxygen conditions in two additional submissions at the 2016 AGU Fall Meeting.

Palaeocirculation across New Zealand during the last glacial maximum at ˜21 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Vandergoes, Marcus; Almond, Peter; Renwick, James; Stephens, Tom; Bostock, Helen; Mackintosh, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Williams, Paul W.; Ackerley, Duncan; Neil, Helen; Fowler, Anthony M.

2012-03-01

What circulation pattern drove Southern Alps glacial advances at ˜21 ka? Late 20th century glacial advances in New Zealand are commonly attributed to a dual precipitation increase and cooler than normal temperatures associated with enhanced westerly flow that occur under synoptic pressure patterns termed 'zonal' regimes (Kidson, 2000). But was the circulation pattern that supported major Southern Alps glacial advances during the global LGM similar to the modern analog? Here, a Regional Climate Regime Classification (RCRC) time slice was used to infer past circulation for New Zealand during the LGM at ˜21 ka. Palaeoclimate information that supported the construction of the ˜21 ka time slice was derived from the NZ-INTIMATE Climate Event Stratigraphy (CES), one new Auckland maar proxy record, and additional low-resolution data sourced from the literature. The terrestrial evidence at ˜21 ka implicates several possibilities for past circulation, depending on how interpretations for some proxies are made. The interpretation considered most tenable for the LGM, based on the agreement between terrestrial evidence, marine reconstructions and palaeoclimate model results is an 'anticyclonic/zonal' circulation regime characterized by increased influences from blocking 'highs' over the South Island during winter and an increase in zonal and trough synoptic types (with southerly to westerly quarter wind flow) during summer. These seasonal circulation traits would have generated lower mean annual temperatures, cooler than normal summer temperatures, and overall lower mean annual precipitation for New Zealand (particularly in the western South Island) at ˜21 ka. The anticyclonic/zonal time slice reconstruction presented in this study has different spatial traits than the late 20th Century and the early Little Ice Age signatures, suggesting more than one type of regional circulation pattern can drive Southern Alps glacial activity. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that temperature over precipitation change is more important as the primary modulator of Southern Alps ice advances. The RCRC approach also demonstrates some subtle advantages of integrating multi-proxy data within a palaeocirculation context for New Zealand, notably because this reconstruction technique enables direct comparisons to coarsely resolved palaeoclimate model outputs that do not have downscaled information.

Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henke, L. M. K.; Lambert, F. H.; Charman, D. J.

2015-11-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean-atmosphere coupled oscillation over the equatorial Pacific, is the most important source of global climate variability on inter-annual time scales. It has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences such as devastation of South American fish populations and increased forest fires in Indonesia. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability, hence proxy data is used to extend the record. However, different proxy sources have produced varying reconstructions of ENSO, with some evidence for a temperature-precipitation divergence in ENSO trends over the past millennium, in particular during the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using EOF-based weighting to create two new large-scale ENSO reconstructions derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies respectively. The method is developed and validated using pseudoproxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. The precipitation ENSO reconstruction displays a significantly more El Niño-like state during the LIA than the MCA, while the temperature reconstruction shows no significant difference. The trends shown in the precipitation ENSO reconstruction are relatively robust to variations in the precipitation EOF pattern. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers significantly from a lack of high-quality, favourably located proxy records, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records.

Ediacaran Marine Redox Heterogeneity and Early Animal Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Li, Chao; Planavsky, Noah J.; Shi, Wei; Zhang, Zihu; Zhou, Chuanming; Cheng, Meng; Tarhan, Lidya G.; Luo, Genming; Xie, Shucheng

2015-01-01

Oxygenation has widely been viewed as a major factor driving the emergence and diversification of animals. However, links between early animal evolution and shifts in surface oxygen levels have largely been limited to extrapolation of paleoredox conditions reconstructed from unfossiliferous strata to settings in which contemporaneous fossils were preserved. Herein, we present a multi-proxy paleoredox study of late Ediacaran (ca. 560-551 Ma) shales hosting the Miaohe Konservat-Lagerstätte of South China and, for comparison, equivalent non-fossil-bearing shales at adjacent sections. For the fossiliferous strata at Miaohe there is geochemical evidence for anoxic conditions, but paleontological evidence for at least episodically oxic conditions. An oxygen-stressed environment is consistent with the low diversity and simple morphology of Miaohe Biota macrofossils. However, there is no evidence for euxinic (anoxic and sulphidic) conditions for the fossiliferous strata at Miaohe, in contrast to adjacent unfossiliferous sections. Our results indicate that Ediacaran marine redox chemistry was highly heterogeneous, even at the kilometre-scale. Therefore, our study provides direct—rather than inferred—evidence that anoxia played a role in shaping a landmark Ediacaran ecosystem. If the anoxic conditions characteristic of the studied sections were widespread in the late Neoproterozoic, environmental stress would have hindered the development of complex ecosystems. PMID:26597559

The last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region: a multi-archives synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, Lucie; Siani, Giuseppe; Landais, Amaelle; Bassinot, Frank; Genty, Dominique; Govin, Aline; Michel, Elisabeth; Nomade, Sebastien; Waelbroeck, Claire

2016-04-01

Multiple proxies record past climatic changes in different climate archives. These proxies are influenced by different component of the climate system and bring complementary information on past climate variability. The major limitation when combining proxies from different archives comes from the coherency of their chronologies. Indeed, each climate archives possess their own dating methods, not necessarily coherent with each other's. Consequently, when we want to assess the latitudinal changes and mechanisms behind a climate event, we often have to rely on assumptions of synchronisation between the different archives, such as synchronous temperature changes during warming events (Austin and Hibbert 2010). Recently, a dating method originally developed to produce coherent chronologies for ice cores (Datice,Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) has been adapted in order to integrate different climate archives (ice cores, sediment cores and speleothems (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2015, Bazin et al., in prep)). In this presentation we present the validation of this multi-archives dating tool with a first application covering the last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region. For this experiment, we consider the records from Monticchio, the MD90-917, Tenaghi Philippon and Lake Orhid sediment cores as well as continuous speleothems from Sofular, Soreq and La Mine caves. Using the Datice dating tool, and with the identification of common tephra layers between the cores considered, we are able to produce a multi-archives coherent chronology for this region, independently of any climatic assumption. Using this common chronological framework, we show that the usual climatic synchronisation assumptions are not valid over this region for the last glacial-interglacial transition. Finally, we compare our coherent Mediterranean chronology with Greenland ice core records in order to discuss the sequence of events of the last Deglaciation between these two regions.

Extreme flood event reconstruction spanning the last century in the El Bibane Lagoon (southeastern Tunisia): a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Affouri, Aida; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib

2017-06-01

Climate models project that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency and the severity of some extreme weather events. The flood events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. Recent studies of lagoon sediments have enhanced our knowledge on extreme hydrological events such as palaeo-storms and on their relation with climate change over the last millennium. However, few studies have been undertaken to reconstruct past flood events from lagoon sediments. Here, the past flood activity was investigated using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological and geochemical analysis of surfaces sediments from a southeastern Tunisian catchment in order to trace the origin of sediment deposits in the El Bibane Lagoon. Three sediment sources were identified: marine, fluvial and aeolian. When applying this multi-proxy approach on core BL12-10, recovered from the El Bibane Lagoon, we can see that finer material, a high content of the clay and silt, and a high content of the elemental ratios (Fe / Ca and Ti / Ca) characterise the sedimentological signature of the palaeo-flood levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. For the last century, which is the period covered by the BL12-10 short core, three palaeo-flood events were identified. The age of these flood events have been determined by 210Pb and 137Cs chronology and give ages of AD 1995 ± 6, 1970 ± 9 and 1945 ± 9. These results show a good temporal correlation with historical flood events recorded in southern Tunisia in the last century (AD 1932, 1969, 1979 and 1995). Our finding suggests that reconstruction of the history of the hydrological extreme events during the upper Holocene is possible in this location through the use of the sedimentary archives.

Holocene environmental changes inferred from biological and sedimentological proxies in a high elevation Great Basin lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, David B.; Starratt, Scott W.; Anderson, Lysanna; Kusler, Jennifer E.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Addison, Jason A.; Wan, Elmira

2015-01-01

Multi-proxy analyses were conducted on a sediment core from Favre Lake, a high elevation cirque lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, and provide a ca. 7600 year record of local and regional environmental change. Data indicate that lake levels were lower from 7600-5750 cal yr BP, when local climate was warmer and/or drier than today. Effective moisture increased after 5750 cal yr BP and remained relatively wet, and possibly cooler, until ca. 3750 cal yr BP. Results indicate generally dry conditions but also enhanced climatic variability from 3750-1750 cal yr BP, after which effective moisture increased. The timing of major changes in the Favre Lake proxy data are roughly coeval and in phase with those recorded in several paleoclimate studies across the Great Basin, suggesting regional climatic controls on local conditions and similar responses at high and low altitudes.

OAE2 and the Platycopid Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, David

2010-05-01

More than 20 years ago the first detailed multi-proxy investigation of the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event (CTBE) in SE England revealed a distinctive pattern of changes in ostracod assemblages. Coincident with a major global positive carbon stable-isotope excursion during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE 2), a marked reduction in floral and faunal diversity was attributed to decreasing levels of dissolved oxygen, consequent on an intensification and expansion of the oceanic Oxygen Minimum Zone into shelf seas. As podocopid ostracod taxa became locally extinct, platycopid ostracods became dominant; from this observation was developed the "Platycopid Signal" hypothesis which claimed that dominance of platycopids in ostracod assemblages signalled dysaerobic conditions on the sea floor. Subsequently this interpretation was widely accepted and applied to the recognition of other dysaerobic intervals in the geological record. However, the modern biological and ecological support claimed for the Platycopid Signal has been challenged and found wanting. In the case of the much-studied CTBE sections in SE England this effectively removes the only remaining pillar of support for the notion of bottom-water dysaerobia in the Anglo-Paris Basin during OAE2, which has already been contradicted by macrofossil, trace fossil and geochemical evidence. A new interpretation of the Platycopid Signal as indicative of oligotrophy is supported by other palaeontological proxy evidence in the CTBE and by observations that living platycopids appear to be adapted to filter-feed on nano- and picoplankton phytodetritus which predominates in oligotrophic conditions. Brandão, S.N. & Horne, D.J., 2009. The Platycopid Signal of oxygen depletion in the ocean: a critical evaluation of the evidence from modern ostracod biology, ecology and depth distribution. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 286, 126-133. Horne, D.J., Brandão, S.N. & Slipper, I.J. The Platycopid Signal deciphered: responses of ostracod taxa to environmental change during the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event (Late Cretaceous) in SE England. Submitted to Cretaceous Research…

Leaf wax records of late Holocene hydrologic changes on Abaco Island, Northern Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamalavage, A.; Feakins, S. J.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Louchouarn, P.; Fall, P. L.; Albury, N. A.; Donnelly, J. P.

2016-12-01

Previous pollen-based evidence from Abaco Island (Little Bahama Bank, Northern Bahamas) indicates that the terrestrial forest changed in dominance over the last 1500 years from palms to pines, and that this change is potentially driven by climate and/or anthropogenic factors. Geochemical markers (δ13Corg, δ15Norg,, C/N, and lignin phenols) measured from bulk sedimentary matter that has accumulated in Blackwood Sinkhole on Abaco Island also support the pollen-based evidence that vegetation has not been constant throughout the late Holocene (last 3000 years). More specifically, these geochemical markers document three intervals where sedimentary deposition was dominated by a different source of organic matter. These changes are likely driven by the combination of the ecological response to shoreline migration from Holocene sea-level rise, and a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at 1000 Cal yrs BP. However, the specific impact of a southward ITCZ displacement at 1000 Cal yrs BP on Abaco rainfall variability remains uncertain (e.g., quantity, seasonality). This research will explore hydrologic variability associated with regional vegetation changes by measuring precipitation isotopic composition based upon plant leaf wax n-alkanoic acid and n-alkane biomarkers. We find C29 and C31 n-alkanes and C24, C26, C28, and C30 n-alkanoic acids record the same hydrogen isotopic values within uncertainties indicating a uniform terrestrial vegetation source. We find a negative shift (-50‰) towards present in our initial analyses; the results of ongoing work will be presented at the meeting. This multi-proxy approach will allow us to resolve the nature of the leaf wax biomarker hydrogen isotope evidence for past precipitation, including testing for the impacts of vegetation on the hydrological proxy, and testing predictions of a shift in precipitation on Abaco Island over the late Holocene coincident with a southward displacement of the ITCZ.

Abrupt climate variability since the last deglaciation based on a high-resolution, multi-proxy peat record from NW Iran: The hand that rocked the Cradle of Civilization?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi, Arash; Pourmand, Ali; Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Ferer-Tyler, Erin; Peterson, Larry C.; Aichner, Bernhard; Feakins, Sarah J.; Daryaee, Touraj; Djamali, Morteza; Beni, Abdolmajid Naderi; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.; Swart, Peter K.

2015-09-01

We present a high-resolution (sub-decadal to centennial), multi-proxy reconstruction of aeolian input and changes in palaeohydrological conditions based on a 13000 Yr record from Neor Lake's peripheral peat in NW Iran. Variations in relative abundances of refractory (Al, Zr, Ti, and Si), redox sensitive (Fe) and mobile (K and Rb) elements, total organic carbon (TOC), δ13CTOC, compound-specific leaf wax hydrogen isotopes (δD), carbon accumulation rates and dust fluxes presented here fill a large gap in the existing terrestrial paleoclimate records from the interior of West Asia. Our results suggest that a transition occurred from dry and dusty conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) to a relatively wetter period with higher carbon accumulation rates and low aeolian input during the early Holocene (9000-6000 Yr BP). This period was followed by relatively drier and dustier conditions during middle to late Holocene, which is consistent with orbital changes in insolation that affected much of the northern hemisphere. Numerous episodes of high aeolian input spanning a few decades to millennia are prevalent during the middle to late Holocene. Wavelet analysis of variations in Ti abundances as a proxy for aeolian input revealed notable periodicities at 230, 320, and 470 years with significant periodicities centered around 820, 1550, and 3110 years over the last 13000 years. Comparison with palaeoclimate archives from West Asia, the North Atlantic and African lakes point to a teleconnection between North Atlantic climate and the interior of West Asia during the last glacial termination and the Holocene epoch. We further assess the potential role of abrupt climate change on early human societies by comparing our record of palaeoclimate variability with historical, geological and archaeological archives from this region. The terrestrial record from this study confirms previous evidence from marine sediments of the Arabian Sea that suggested climate change influenced the termination of the Akkadian empire. In addition, nearly all observed episodes of enhanced dust deposition during the middle to late Holocene coincided with times of drought, famine, and power transitions across the Iranian Plateau, Mesopotamia and the eastern Mediterranean region. These findings indicate that while socio-economic factors are traditionally considered to shape ancient human societies in this region, the influence of abrupt climate change should not be underestimated.

Palaeoenvironments during a terminal Oligocene or early Miocene transgression in a fluvial system at the southwestern tip of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, D. L.; Neumann, F. H.; Cawthra, H. C.; Carr, A. S.; Scott, L.; Durugbo, E. U.; Humphries, M. S.; Cowling, R. M.; Bamford, M. K.; Musekiwa, C.; MacHutchon, M.

2017-03-01

A multi-proxy study of an offshore core in Saldanha Bay (South Africa) provides new insights into fluvial deposition, ecosystems, phytogeography and sea-level history during the late Paleogene-early Neogene. Offshore seismic data reveal bedrock topography, and provide evidence of relative sea levels as low as - 100 m during the Oligocene. 3D landscape reconstruction reveals hills, plains and an anastomosing river system. A Chattian or early Miocene age for the sediments is inferred from dinoflagellate taxa Distatodinium craterum, Chiropteridium lobospinosum, Homotryblium plectilum and Impagidinium paradoxum. The subtropical forest revealed by palynology includes lianas and vines, evergreen trees, palms and ferns, implying higher water availability than today, probably reduced seasonal drought and stronger summer rainfall. From topography, sedimentology and palynology we reconstruct Podocarpaceae-dominated forests, Proto-Fynbos, and swamp/riparian forests with palms and other angiosperms. Rhizophoraceae present the first South African evidence of Palaeogene/Neogene mangroves. Subtropical woodland-thicket with Combretaceae and Brachystegia (Peregrinipollis nigericus) probably developed on coastal plains. Some of the last remaining Gondwana elements on the sub-continent, e.g., Araucariaceae, are recorded. Charred particles signal fires prior to the onset of summer dry climate at the Cape. Marine and terrestrial palynomorphs, together with organic and inorganic geochemical proxy data, suggest a gradual glacio-eustatic transgression. The data shed light on Southern Hemisphere biogeography and regional climatic conditions at the Palaeogene-Neogene transition. The proliferation of the vegetation is partly ascribed to changes in South Atlantic oceanographic circulation, linked to the closure of the Central American Seaway and the onset of the Benguela Current 14 Ma.

Medieval Horse Stable; The Results of Multi Proxy Interdisciplinary Research

PubMed Central

Dejmal, Miroslav; Lisá, Lenka; Fišáková Nývltová, Miriam; Bajer, Aleš; Petr, Libor; Kočár, Petr; Kočárová, Romana; Nejman, Ladislav; Rybníček, Michal; Sůvová, Zdenka; Culp, Randy; Vavrčík, Hanuš

2014-01-01

A multi proxy approach was applied in the reconstruction of the architecture of Medieval horse stable architecture, the maintenance practices associated with that structure as well as horse alimentation at the beginning of 13th century in Central Europe. Finally, an interpretation of the local vegetation structure along Morava River, Czech Republic is presented. The investigated stable experienced two construction phases. The infill was well preserved and its composition reflects maintenance practices. The uppermost part of the infill was composed of fresh stabling, which accumulated within a few months at the end of summer. Horses from different backgrounds were kept in the stable and this is reflected in the results of isotope analyses. Horses were fed meadow grasses as well as woody vegetation, millet, oat, and less commonly hemp, wheat and rye. Three possible explanations of stable usage are suggested. The stable was probably used on a temporary basis for horses of workers employed at the castle, courier horses and horses used in battle. PMID:24670874

A multi-proxy analysis of Late Quaternary ocean and climate variability for the Maldives, Inner Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunzel, Dorothea; Schmiedl, Gerhard; Lindhorst, Sebastian; Mackensen, Andreas; Reolid, Jesús; Romahn, Sarah; Betzler, Christian

2017-12-01

As a natural sediment trap, the marine sediments of the sheltered central part of the Maldives Inner Sea represent an exceptional archive for paleoenvironmental and climate changes in the equatorial Indian Ocean. To evaluate the complex interplay between high-latitude and monsoonal climate variability, related dust fluxes, and regional oceanographic responses, we focused on Fe / Al, Ti / Al and Si / Ca ratios as proxies for terrigenous sediment delivery and total organic carbon (TOC) and Br XRF counts as proxies for marine productivity. Benthic foraminiferal fauna distributions, grain size and stable δ18O and δ13C data were used for evaluating changes in the benthic ecosystem and changes in the intermediate water circulation, bottom water current velocity and oxygenation. Our multi-proxy data record reveals an enhanced dust supply during the glacial intervals, causing elevated Fe / Al and Si / Ca ratios, an overall coarsening of the sediment and an increasing amount of agglutinated benthic foraminifera. The enhanced dust fluxes can be attributed to higher dust availability in the Asian desert and loess areas and its transport by intensified winter monsoon winds during glacial conditions. These combined effects of wind-induced mixing of surface waters and dust fertilization during the cold phases resulted in an increased surface water productivity and related organic carbon fluxes. Thus, the development of highly diverse benthic foraminiferal faunas with certain detritus and suspension feeders was fostered. The difference in the δ13C signal between epifaunal and deep infaunal benthic foraminifera reveals intermediate water oxygen concentrations between approximately 40 and 100 µmol kg-1 during this time. The precessional fluctuation pattern of oxygen changes resembles that from the deep Arabian Sea, suggesting an expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) from the Arabian Sea into the tropical Indian Ocean with a probable regional signal of strengthened winter-monsoon-induced organic matter fluxes and oxygen consumption further controlled by the varying inflow intensity of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). In addition, the bottom water oxygenation pattern of the Maldives Inner Sea reveals a long phase of reduced ventilation during the last glacial period. This process is likely linked to the combined effects of generally enhanced oxygen consumption rates during high-productivity phases, reduced AAIW production and the restriction of upper bathyal environments in the Inner Sea during sea-level lowstands. Thus, our multi-proxy record reflects a close linkage between the Indian monsoon oscillation, intermediate water circulation, productivity and sea-level changes on orbital timescale.

An ocean-ice coupled response during the last glacial: a view from a marine isotopic stage 3 record south of the Faeroe Shetland Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumaque, J.; Eynaud, F.; Zaragosi, S.; Marret, F.; Matsuzaki, K. M.; Kissel, C.; Roche, D. M.; Malaizé, B.; Michel, E.; Billy, I.; Richter, T.; Palis, E.

2012-12-01

The rapid climatic variability characterising the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3 (~60-30 cal ka BP) provides key issues to understand the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere dynamics. Here we investigate the response of sea-surface paleoenvironments to the MIS3 climatic variability through the study of a high resolution oceanic sedimentological archive (core MD99-2281, 60°21' N; 09°27' W; 1197 m water depth), retrieved during the MD114-IMAGES (International Marine Global Change Study) cruise from the southern part of the Faeroe Bank. This sector was under the proximal influence of European ice sheets (Fennoscandian Ice Sheet to the East, British Irish Ice Sheet to the South) during the last glacial and thus probably responded to the MIS3 pulsed climatic changes. We conducted a multi-proxy analysis of core MD99-2281, including magnetic properties, x-ray fluorescence measurements, characterisation of the coarse (>150 μm) lithic fraction (grain concentration) and the analysis of selected biogenic proxies (assemblages and stable isotope ratio of calcareous planktonic foraminifera, dinoflagellate cyst - e.g. dinocyst - assemblages). Results presented here are focussed on the dinocyst response, this proxy providing the reconstruction of past sea-surface hydrological conditions, qualitatively as well as quantitatively (e.g. transfer function sensu lato). Our study documents a very coherent and sensitive oceanic response to the MIS3 rapid climatic variability: strong fluctuations, matching those of stadial/interstadial climatic oscillations as depicted by Greenland ice cores, are recorded in the MD99-2281 archive. Proxies of terrigeneous and detritical material suggest increases in continental advection during Greenland Stadials (including Heinrich events), the latter corresponding also to southward migrations of polar waters. At the opposite, milder sea-surface conditions seem to develop during Greenland Interstadials. After 30 ka, reconstructed paleohydrological conditions evidence strong shifts in SST: this increasing variability seems consistent with the hypothesised coalescence of the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets at that time, which could have directly influenced sea-surface environments in the vicinity of core MD99-2281.

An Ocean - ice coupled response during the last glacial: zooming on the marine isotopic stage 3 south of the Faeroe Shetland Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumaque, J.; Eynaud, F.; Zaragosi, S.; Marret, F.; Matsuzaki, K. M.; Kissel, C.; Roche, D. M.; Malaizé, B.; Michel, E.; Billy, I.; Richter, T.; Palis, E.

2012-08-01

The rapid climatic variability characterising the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3 (~ 60-30 CAL-ka BP) provides key issues to understand the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere dynamics. Here we investigate the response of sea-surface paleoenvironments to the MIS3 climatic variability through the study of a high resolution oceanic sedimentological archive (core MD99-2281, 60°21' N; 09°27' W; 1197 m water depth), retrieved during the MD114-IMAGES (International Marine Global Change Study) cruise from the Southern part of the Faeroe Bank. This sector was under the proximal influence of European Ice Sheets (Fennoscandian Ice Sheet to the East, British Irish Ice Sheet to the South) and thus probably recorded their response to the MIS3 pulsed climatic changes. We conducted a multi-proxy analysis on core MD99-2281, including magnetic properties, X-Ray Fluorescence measurements, characterisation of the coarse (> 150 μm) lithic fraction (grain concentration) and the analysis of selected biogenic proxies (assemblages and stable isotope ratio of calcareous planktonic foraminifera, dinoflagellate cyst - e.g. dinocyst - assemblages). Results presented here are focussed on the dinocyst response, this proxy providing the reconstruction of past sea-surface hydrological conditions, qualitatively as well as quantitatively (e.g. transfer function sensu lato). Our study documents a very coherent and sensitive oceanic response to the MIS3 rapid climatic variability: strong fluctuations, matching those of stadial/interstadial climatic oscillations as depicted by Greenland Ice Cores, are recorded in the MD99-2281 archive. Proxies of terrigeneous and detritical material typify increases in continental advection during Greenland Stadials (including Heinrich events), the latter corresponding also to southward migrations of polar waters. At the opposite, milder sea-surface conditions seem to develop during Greenland Interstadials. After 30 ka, reconstructed paleohydrological conditions evidence strong shifts in SST: this increasing variability seems consistent with the hypothesised coalescence of the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets at that time, which could have directly influenced sea-surface environments in the vicinity of core MD99-2281.

Evidence for a bi-partition of the Younger Dryas Stadial in East Asia associated with inversed climate characteristics compared to Europe.

PubMed

Schlolaut, Gordon; Brauer, Achim; Nakagawa, Takeshi; Lamb, Henry F; Tyler, Jonathan J; Staff, Richard A; Marshall, Michael H; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Bryant, Charlotte L; Tarasov, Pavel E

2017-03-31

The Younger Dryas Stadial (YDS) was an episode of northern hemispheric cooling which occurred within the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT). A major driver for the YDS climate was a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been inferred that the AMOC began to strengthen mid-YDS, producing a bipartite structure of the YDS in records from continental Europe. These records imply that the polar front and westerlies shifted northward, producing a warmer second phase of the YDS in Europe. Here we present multi-proxy data from the sediments of Lake Suigetsu (Japan), as evidence that a related bi-partition of the YDS also occurred in East Asia. Besides showing for the first time that the bi-partition was not limited to the North Atlantic/European region, the data also imply a climatic dipole between Europe and East Asia since the cold-warm characteristics are reversed at Lake Suigetsu. We suggest that changes in eastward moisture transport from the North Atlantic are the primary mechanism by which the teleconnection can be explained.

Publication bias in obesity treatment trials?

PubMed

Allison, D B; Faith, M S; Gorman, B S

1996-10-01

The present investigation examined the extent of publication bias (namely the tendency to publish significant findings and file away non-significant findings) within the obesity treatment literature. Quantitative literature synthesis of four published meta-analyses from the obesity treatment literature. Interventions in these studies included pharmacological, educational, child, and couples treatments. To assess publication bias, several regression procedures (for example weighted least-squares, random-effects multi-level modeling, and robust regression methods) were used to regress effect sizes onto their standard errors, or proxies thereof, within each of the four meta-analysis. A significant positive beta weight in these analyses signified publication bias. There was evidence for publication bias within two of the four published meta-analyses, such that reviews of published studies were likely to overestimate clinical efficacy. The lack of evidence for publication bias within the two other meta-analyses might have been due to insufficient statistical power rather than the absence of selection bias. As in other disciplines, publication bias appears to exist in the obesity treatment literature. Suggestions are offered for managing publication bias once identified or reducing its likelihood in the first place.

Fragility of estimated spatial temperature patterns in climate field reconstructions of the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Vaccaro, A.; Guillot, D.; Rajaratnam, B.

2013-12-01

Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the Common Era can provide insight into dynamical causes of low-frequency climate variability. For instance, the Mann et al. [2009] study found that the reconstructed sea-surface temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (hereinafter MCA - LIA) is marked by a La-Niña like pattern over the tropical Pacific, and proposed dynamical explanations for this observation. In this talk, we assess the robustness of such spatial patterns. First we examine the impact of the CFR methodology. Starting with the network of Mann et al. [2008] (hereinafter M08), we perform temperature reconstruction using four different CFR techniques: RegEM-TTLS [Schneider, 2001], the Mann et al. [2009] implementation of RegEM-TTLS (hereinafter M09), Canonical Correlation Analysis [Smerdon et al., 2010, CCA] and GraphEM [Guillot et al., in revision]. We find that results are greatly method-dependent even with identical inputs. While the M09 reconstruction displays a La Niña-like pattern over the tropical Pacific for MCA - LIA, CCA gives a neutral pattern, RegEM-TTLS and GraphEM both display El Niño-like pattern but show different amplitudes. Next we assess a given CFR technique's sensitivity to the selection of inputs. Proxies are selected based on the statistical significance of their correlations with HadCRUT3v annual temperature. A multiple hypothesis test [Ventura et al., 2004] is conducted to preclude spurious correlations. This choice has a large impact on resulting CFRs. In particular, whether the correlation is calculated between local or regional temperature-proxy pairs determines the number of significant records included in the proxy network. This in turn greatly affects the reconstructed spatial patterns and the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature time series with all CFR methods investigated. In order to further analyze CFRs' sensitivities to the abovementioned procedural choices, we assemble an updated multi-proxy network and produce a new 2000-year-long global temperature reconstruction. The network expands upon the existing M08 network by screening tree-ring proxies for the 'divergence problem' [D'Arrigo et al., 2008] and adds 58 non tree-ring proxies, of which 28 are located in the tropics and 11 are available within at least the past 1500 years. Overall, considerable differences are still evident among reconstructions using different CFR methods. Yet such differences are smaller using the updated proxy network compared with using the M08 network, consistent with pseudoproxy studies [Wang et al, 2013]. Our results collectively highlight the fragility of reconstructed patterns in the current state of proxy networks and CFR methods. We conclude that dynamical interpretations of such patterns are premature until these technical aspects are resolved. Reference: Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 3015-3060, doi:10.5194/cpd-9-3015-2013, 2013.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

PubMed

Winter, Amos; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas; Kushnir, Yochanan; Black, David; Lohmann, Gerrit; Burnett, Allison; Haug, Gerald H; Estrella-Martínez, Juan; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Beaufort, Luc; Rubino, Angelo; Cheng, Hai

2015-07-14

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Discontinuities, cross-scale patterns, and the organization of ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nash, Kirsty L.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Eason, Tarsha; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Knutson, Melinda; Nelson, R. John; Nystrom, Magnus; Stow, Craig A.; Sandstrom, Shana M.

2014-01-01

Ecological structures and processes occur at specific spatiotemporal scales, and interactions that occur across multiple scales mediate scale-specific (e.g., individual, community, local, or regional) responses to disturbance. Despite the importance of scale, explicitly incorporating a multi-scale perspective into research and management actions remains a challenge. The discontinuity hypothesis provides a fertile avenue for addressing this problem by linking measureable proxies to inherent scales of structure within ecosystems. Here we outline the conceptual framework underlying discontinuities and review the evidence supporting the discontinuity hypothesis in ecological systems. Next we explore the utility of this approach for understanding cross-scale patterns and the organization of ecosystems by describing recent advances for examining nonlinear responses to disturbance and phenomena such as extinctions, invasions, and resilience. To stimulate new research, we present methods for performing discontinuity analysis, detail outstanding knowledge gaps, and discuss potential approaches for addressing these gaps.

The conceptualization and measurement of cognitive reserve using common proxy indicators: Testing some tenable reflective and formative models.

PubMed

Ikanga, Jean; Hill, Elizabeth M; MacDonald, Douglas A

2017-02-01

The examination of cognitive reserve (CR) literature reveals a lack of consensus regarding conceptualization and pervasive problems with its measurement. This study aimed at examining the conceptual nature of CR through the analysis of reflective and formative models using eight proxies commonly employed in the CR literature. We hypothesized that all CR proxies would significantly contribute to a one-factor reflective model and that educational and occupational attainment would produce the strongest loadings on a single CR factor. The sample consisted of 149 participants (82 male/67 female), with 18.1 average years of education and ages of 45-99 years. Participants were assessed for eight proxies of CR (parent socioeconomic status, intellectual functioning, level of education, health literacy, occupational prestige, life leisure activities, physical activities, and spiritual and religious activities). Primary statistical analyses consisted of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to test reflective models and structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models. CFA did not produce compelling support for a unitary CR construct when using all eight of our CR proxy variables in a reflective model but fairly cogent evidence for a one-factor model with four variable proxies. A second three-factor reflective model based upon an exploratory principal components analysis of the eight proxies was tested using CFA. Though all eight indicators significantly loaded on their assigned factors, evidence in support of overall model fit was mixed. Based upon the results involving the three-factor reflective model, two alternative formative models were developed and evaluated. While some support was obtained for both, the model in which the formative influences were specified as latent variables appeared to best account for the contributions of all eight proxies to the CR construct. While the findings provide partial support for our hypothesis regarding CR as a one-dimensional reflective construct, the results strongly suggest that the construct is more complex than what can be captured in a reflective model alone. There is a need for theory to better identify and differentiate formative from reflective indicators and to articulate the mechanisms by which CR develops and operates.

Multi-proxies Approach of Climatic Records In Terrestrial Mollusks Shells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labonne, M.; Rousseau, D. D.; Ben Othman, D.; Luck, J. M.; Metref, S.

Fossil land snails shells constitute a valuable source of information for the study of Quaternary deposits as they are commonly preserved in many regions and notably in loess sequences. The use of stable isotope composition of the carbonate in the shells was previously applied to reconstruct past climate or environnements but the technic was not widely exploited and compared with other proxies from the same sequence. In this study, we have analysed stables isotopes, trace elements and Sr isotopes from both shells of land snails Vertigo modesta and the sediment from the Eustis upper Pleistocene loess sequence (Nebraska, USA). This serie developed during the last glaciation and records the last deglaciation between 18,000 and 12,000 B.P. years. We compare the paleoclimatic information obtained by different proxies, such as mag- netic susceptibility, temperature and moisture estimated by land snails assemblage with geochemical data measured on land snails shells in order to validate the climatic information obtained with this proxy. Our study demonstrates that shell carbonate reflects environmental conditions estimated by other proxies. Carbon and oxygen iso- topes show cyclic variations (millenial cycles) along the profile which correlate with stratigraphic units and could be link with the retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet. Trace element and Sr isotopes in the shells indicate various origins for the eolian dusts in the two main loess units along the sequence.

Centennial-scale links between Atlantic Ocean dynamics and hydroclimate over the last 4400 years: Insights from the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, K.; Quinn, T. M.; Okumura, Y.; Richey, J. N.; Partin, J. W.; Poore, R. Z.

2015-12-01

Surface circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is an important mediator of global climate and yet its variability is poorly constrained on centennial timescales. Changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in late Holocene climate variability in the Western Hemisphere, although the relationship between AMOC variability and hydroclimate is uncertain due to the lack of sufficiently highly resolved proxy records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) from the Garrison Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) spanning the last 4,400 years to better constrain past sea-surface conditions. We generated time series of paired Mg/Ca (SST proxy) and δ18O (SST and SSS proxy) variations in planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white variety) from three multi-cores collected in 2010. Using a Monte Carlo-based technique we produce a stacked record from the three multi-cores and constrain analytical, calibration, chronological, and sampling uncertainties. We apply this technique to existing paired Mg/Ca- δ18O studies in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to facilitate comparison between time-uncertain proxy reconstructions. The Garrison Basin stack exhibits large centennial-scale variability (σSST~0.6°C; δ18Osw~0.17‰) and indicates a substantially cool (0.9±0.5°C) and fresh (0.26±0.1‰) Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-1850 A.D.), corroborating extant records from the Gulf of Mexico. Focusing on the last millennium, we analyze a suite of oceanic and terrestrial proxy records to demonstrate a centennial-scale link between salt advection in the Atlantic Ocean, a diagnostic parameter of ocean circulation, and hydroclimate in the adjacent continents. The ensuing multiproxy relationships seem to be consistent with spatial field correlations of limited salinity and rainfall instrumental/reanalysis data, which suggest that NGOM salinity varies with large-scale Atlantic Ocean circulation and continental precipitation. Our results imply significant centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene and are consistent with limited observational analysis indicating a slowdown of AMOC during the LIA.

Attachment representations in mothers with abnormal illness behaviour by proxy.

PubMed

Adshead, Gwen; Bluglass, Kerry

2005-10-01

Abnormal illness behaviour by proxy (also known as factitious illness by proxy or Munchhausen syndrome by proxy) is a type of child maltreatment, the origins of which are poorly understood. To describe attachment representations in a cohort of mothers demonstrating abnormal illness behaviour by proxy. Sixty-seven mothers who had shown this behaviour took part in a semistructured interview assessing their attachment representations. Only 12 mothers (18%) were rated secure in terms of their own childhood attachments. There was evidence of unresolved trauma or loss reactions in 40 mothers (60%). Eighteen mothers (27%) gave unusually disorganised and incoherent accounts of attachment relationships in their own childhoods. The frequency of these attachment categories is higher than in normal non-clinical samples. Insecure attachment is a risk factor for this type of child maltreatment. Therapeutic interventions could be offered in relation to unresolved traumatic stress or bereavement responses. Further study of similar groups, such as mothers with sick children or mothers with histories of traumatic experience, would be a useful next step.

Stalkers and harassers of British royalty: an exploration of proxy behaviours for violence.

PubMed

James, David V; Mullen, Paul E; Meloy, J Reid; Pathé, Michele T; Preston, Lulu; Darnley, Brian; Farnham, Frank R; Scalora, Mario J

2011-01-01

Study of risk factors for violence to prominent people is difficult because of low base rates. This study of harassers of the royal family examined factors suggested in the literature as proxies for violence--breaching security barriers, achieving proximity, approach with a weapon, and approach with homicidal ideation. A stratified sample of different types of approach behaviour was randomly extracted from 2,332 Royalty Protection Police files, which had been divided into behavioural types. The final sample size was 275. Significant differences in illness symptomatology and motivation were found for each proxy group. Querulants were significantly over-represented in three of the four groups. There was generally little overlap between the proxy groups. There is no evidence of the proxy items examined being part of a "pathway to violence". Different motivations may be associated with different patterns of risk. Risk assessment must incorporate knowledge of the interactions between motivation, mental state, and behaviour. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Advance care planning and proxy decision making for patients with advanced Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Kwak, Jung; Wallendal, Maggie S; Fritsch, Thomas; Leo, Gary; Hyde, Trevor

2014-03-01

To examine advance care planning practices and proxy decision making by family healthcare proxies for patients with advanced Parkinson disease (PD). Sixty-four spouses and adult children, self-designated as a/the healthcare proxy for advanced patients with PD, participated in a cross-sectional survey study. Sixty patients with PD (95%) had completed a living will, but only 38% had shared the document with a physician. Among three life-support treatments--cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), ventilator, and feeding tube--47% of patients opted for CPR, 16% for ventilator, and 20% for feeding tube. Forty-two percent of proxies did not know patients' preferences for one or more of the three life-support treatments. Only 28% of proxies reported that patients wanted hospice. Patients who shared advance directives with a physician were significantly less likely to choose CPR and a feeding tube and they were more likely to choose hospice. In a hypothetical end-of-life (EOL) scenario, the majority of proxies chose comfort care as the EOL goal of care (53%) and pain and symptom management only as the course of treatment option (72%); these proxy choices for patients, however, were not associated with patients' preferences for life support. Patients' proxies preferred a form of shared decision making with other family members and physicians. Advance care planning is effective when patients, families, and healthcare professionals together consider future needs for EOL care decisions. Further efforts are needed by healthcare professionals to provide evidence-based education about care options and facilitate advanced discussion and shared decision making by the patient and families.

Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiori, A.; Zarlenga, A.; Gotovac, H.; Jankovic, I.; Volpi, E.; Cvetkovic, V.; Dagan, G.

2015-12-01

We examine the prediction capability of two approximate models (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) and Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW)) of non-Fickian transport, by comparison with accurate 2-D and 3-D numerical simulations. Both nonlocal in time approaches circumvent the need to solve the flow and transport equations by using proxy models to advection, providing the breakthrough curves (BTC) at control planes at any x, depending on a vector of five unknown parameters. Although underlain by different mechanisms, the two models have an identical structure in the Laplace Transform domain and have the Markovian property of independent transitions. We show that also the numerical BTCs enjoy the Markovian property. Following the procedure recommended in the literature, along a practitioner perspective, we first calibrate the parameters values by a best fit with the numerical BTC at a control plane at x1, close to the injection plane, and subsequently use it for prediction at further control planes for a few values of σY2≤8. Due to a similar structure and Markovian property, the two methods perform equally well in matching the numerical BTC. The identified parameters are generally not unique, making their identification somewhat arbitrary. The inverse Gaussian model and the recently developed Multi-Indicator Model (MIM), which does not require any fitting as it relates the BTC to the permeability structure, are also discussed. The application of the proxy models for prediction requires carrying out transport field tests of large plumes for a long duration.

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieten, Rolf; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Spoetl, Christoph; Winterhalder, Sophie; Koltai, Gabriella; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Terzer, Stefan; Zanchettin, Davide; Mangini, Augusto

2016-04-01

A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describing low-frequency sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic ocean. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most recent AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years (Svendsen et al., 2014) with a time lag of 10-20 years. The lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Before 1800 there were two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values (dryer conditions) lasting several decades in our speleothem record centered around 1680 CE and 1470 CE. The elevated ratios indicate that drier conditions than present may have occurred in the region during periods of warm Atlantic surface waters.

Self-consistent asset pricing models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.

2007-08-01

We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are) supposed to explain. As already reported in several articles, self-consistency implies correlations between the return disturbances. As a consequence, the alphas and betas of the factor model are unobservable. Self-consistency leads to renormalized betas with zero effective alphas, which are observable with standard OLS regressions. When the conditions derived from internal consistency are not met, the model is necessarily incomplete, which means that some sources of risk cannot be replicated (or hedged) by a portfolio of stocks traded on the market, even for infinite economies. Analytical derivations and numerical simulations show that, for arbitrary choices of the proxy which are different from the true market portfolio, a modified linear regression holds with a non-zero value αi at the origin between an asset i's return and the proxy's return. Self-consistency also introduces “orthogonality” and “normality” conditions linking the betas, alphas (as well as the residuals) and the weights of the proxy portfolio. Two diagnostics based on these orthogonality and normality conditions are implemented on a basket of 323 assets which have been components of the S&P500 in the period from January 1990 to February 2005. These two diagnostics show interesting departures from dynamical self-consistency starting about 2 years before the end of the Internet bubble. Assuming that the CAPM holds with the self-consistency condition, the OLS method automatically obeys the resulting orthogonality and normality conditions and therefore provides a simple way to self-consistently assess the parameters of the model by using proxy portfolios made only of the assets which are used in the CAPM regressions. Finally, the factor decomposition with the self-consistency condition derives a risk-factor decomposition in the multi-factor case which is identical to the principal component analysis (PCA), thus providing a direct link between model-driven and data-driven constructions of risk factors. This correspondence shows that PCA will therefore suffer from the same limitations as the CAPM and its multi-factor generalization, namely lack of out-of-sample explanatory power and predictability. In the multi-period context, the self-consistency conditions force the betas to be time-dependent with specific constraints.

600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, A.; Vieten, R.

2015-12-01

A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most-recently published AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years with a time lag of 10-20 years. The time lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Over the past 600 years there are two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values lasting several decades in our speleothem record. They are centered around 1680 CE and 1470 CE. The elevated ratios indicate that drier conditions than present occurred in the region during periods of warm Atlantic surface waters. This may be a precursor of conditions now and to come.

The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation throughout the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wassenburg, Jasper; Dietrich, Stephan; Fietzke, Jan; Fohlmeister, Jens; Wei, Wei; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Richter, Detlev; Sabaoui, Abdellah; Lohmann, Gerrit; Andreae, Meinrat; Immenhauser, Adrian

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a major impact on Northern Hemisphere winter climate. Trouet et al. (2009) reconstructed the NAO for the last millennium based on a Moroccan tree ring PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) reconstruction and a Scottish speleothem record. More recently, Olsen et al. (2012) extended the NAO record back to 5.2 ka BP based on a lake record from West Greenland. It is, however, well known that the NAO exhibits non-stationary behavior and the use of a single location for a NAO reconstruction may not capture the complete variability. In addition, the imprint of the NAO on European rainfall patterns in the Early and Mid Holocene on (multi-) centennial timescales is still largely unknown. This is related to difficulties in establishing robust correlations between different proxy records and the fact that proxies may not only reflect winter conditions (i.e., the season when the NAO has the largest influence). Here we present a precisely dated, high resolution speleothem δ18O record from NW Morocco covering the complete Early and Mid Holocene. Carbon and oxygen isotopes were measured at a resolution of 15 years. A multi-proxy approach provides solid evidence that speleothem δ18O values reflect changes in past rainfall intensity. The Moroccan record shows a significant correlation with a speleothem rainfall record from western Germany, which covers the entire Holocene (Fohlmeister et al., 2012). The combination with the extended speleothem record from Scotland, speleothem records from north Italy and the NAO reconstruction from West Greenland (Olsen et al., 2012) allows us to study the variability of the NAO during the entire Holocene. The relation between West German and Northwest Moroccan rainfall has not been stationary, which is evident from the changing signs of correlation. The Early Holocene is characterized by a positive correlation, which changes between 9 and 8 ka BP into a negative correlation. Simulations with the state-of-the-art earth system model COSMOS for the Early and Mid Holocene (Wei and Lohmann, 2012) indicate that this change in the NAO teleconnection is related to large-scale circulation changes due to the ice sheet configuration and deglaciation. References: Fohlmeister, J., Schroder-Ritzrau, A., Scholz, D., Riechelmann, D.F.C., Mudelsee, M., Wackerbarth, A., Gerdes, A., Riechelmann, S., Immenhauser, A., Richter, D.K., Mangini, A., 2012. Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability. Climate of the Past 8, 1751-1764. Olsen, J., Anderson, J.N., Knudsen, M.F., 2012. Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past 5,200 years. Nature Geoscience DOI:10.1038/NGEO1589, Trouet, V., Esper, J., Graham, N.E., Baker, A., Scourse, J.D., Frank, D.C., 2009. Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 324, 78-80. Wei, W., Lohmann, G., 2012. Simulated Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the Holocene. Journal of Climate 6989-7002.

Multi-Century Record of Anthropogenic Impacts on an Urbanized Mesotidal Estuary: Salem Sound, MA

EPA Science Inventory

Salem, MA, located north of Boston, has a rich, well-documented history dating back to settlement in 1626 CE, but the associated anthropogenic impacts on Salem Sound are poorly constrained. This project utilized dated sediment cores from the sound to assess the proxy record of an...

Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years, since the mid-Holocene. The 1000 years period is also evidenced in terrestrial alkanes and Minorca sediment drift grain size, which respectively indicate changes in the Rhône hydrology and changes in the north-western Mediterranean deep water formation. These findings suggests that an original climate driver influences the Gulf of Lion area. Finally, both clay mineral content from PB06, indicative of past storminess and δ18O record from the north western Iberia, related to precipitations, record the well known 1500 years period since the middle Holocene. The presence of this period, widely encountered in the Atlantic, highlights the link between the north-western Mediterranean and the Atlantic climate variability.

Late-Holocene climate and environmental change on the Antarctic Peninsula: multi-proxy palaeoclimate records from frozen moss banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, T.; Amesbury, M.; Royles, J.; Hodgson, D.; Convey, P.; Griffiths, H.; Charman, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, with air temperature increases of 3°C recorded since the mid-20th century. However, instrumental climate records are mostly limited to the late 1950s onwards and existing palaeoenvironmental data that provide a longer-term context to recent climate and biological changes are often spatially isolated and temporally fragmented. Ice-core records from the AP are not suitably located to be able to examine the spatial signature of climate changes over time. Moss banks located along the western AP are ideal archives for palaeoclimate research as they are well-preserved, have sufficiently high accumulation rates to permit decadally resolved analyses using multiple proxies over the last c. 4000 years, and are easily dated with 14C and 210Pb. Potential climate proxies (moss accumulation and growth rates, Δ13C in moss cellulose, testate amoebae concentration) are sensitive to regional temperature change, moderated by water availability and surface microclimate. Here we present multi-proxy records of biological change from these archives of late Holocene climate variability. We identified significant changepoints in six cores at three sites, across a transect spanning c. 600 km, observing that biological response to recent rapid warming on the AP is pervasive and unprecedented over the last 150 years. Longer records show that recent change is also unusual in the context of the past 4000 years and suggest that westerly wind strength linked to the Southern Annular Mode is the most likely driver of centennial-scale AP temperature variability. Widespread changes in the terrestrial biosphere of the AP in response to past temperature suggest that terrestrial ecosystems will alter rapidly under future warming scenarios, leading to major changes in the biology and landscape of this iconic region — an Antarctic greening to parallel well-established observations in the Arctic.

A multi-proxy assessment of dieback causes in a Mediterranean oak species.

PubMed

Colangelo, Michele; Camarero, J Julio; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Borghetti, Marco; De Micco, Veronica; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco

2017-05-01

Drought stress causes forest dieback that is often explained by two interrelated mechanisms, namely hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. However, it is still unclear which functional and structural alterations, related to these mechanisms, predispose to dieback. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach for the characterization of tree structure (radial growth, wood anatomy) and functioning (δ13C, δ18O and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs)) in tree rings before and after drought-induced dieback. We aim to discriminate which is the main mechanism and to assess which variables can act as early-warning proxies of drought-triggered damage. The study was tailored in southern Italy in two forests (i.e., San Paolo (SP) and Oriolo (OR)) where declining and non-declining trees of a ring-porous tree species (Quercus frainetto Ten.) showing anisohydric behavior coexist. Both stands showed growth decline in response to warm and dry spring conditions, although the onset of dieback was shifted between them (2002 in SP and 2009 in OR). Declining trees displayed a sharp growth drop after this onset with reductions of 49% and 44% at SP and OR sites, respectively. Further, contrary to what we expected, declining trees showed a lower intrinsic water-use efficiency compared with non-declining trees after the dieback onset (with reductions of 9.7% and 5.6% at sites SP and OR, respectively), due to enhanced water loss through transpiration, as indicated by the lower δ18O values. This was more noticeable at the most drought-affected SP stand. Sapwood NSCs did not differ between declining and non-declining trees, indicating no carbon starvation in affected trees. Thus, the characterized structural and functional alterations partially support the hydraulic failure mechanism of dieback. Finally, we show that growth data are reliable early-warning proxies of drought-triggered dieback. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hydroclimate variability in the Nile River Basin during the past 28,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castañeda, Isla S.; Schouten, Stefan; Pätzold, Jürgen; Lucassen, Friedrich; Kasemann, Simone; Kuhlmann, Holger; Schefuß, Enno

2016-03-01

It has long been known that extreme changes in North African hydroclimate occurred during the late Pleistocene yet many discrepancies exist between sites regarding the timing, duration and abruptness of events such as Heinrich Stadial (HS) 1 and the African Humid Period (AHP). The hydroclimate history of the Nile River is of particular interest due to its lengthy human occupation history yet there are presently few continuous archives from the Nile River corridor, and pre-Holocene studies are rare. Here we present new organic and inorganic geochemical records of Nile Basin hydroclimate from an eastern Mediterranean (EM) Sea sediment core spanning the past 28 ka BP. Our multi-proxy records reflect the fluctuating inputs of Blue Nile versus White Nile material to the EM Sea in response to gradual changes in local insolation and also capture abrupt hydroclimate events driven by remote climate forcings, such as HS1. We find strong evidence for extreme aridity within the Nile Basin evolving in two distinct phases during HS1, from 17.5 to 16 ka BP and from 16 to 14.5 ka BP, whereas peak wet conditions during the AHP are observed from 9 to 7 ka BP. We find that zonal movements of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB), and associated shifts in the dominant moisture source (Atlantic versus Indian Ocean moisture) to the Nile Basin, likely contributed to abrupt hydroclimate variability in northern East Africa during HS1 and the AHP as well as to non-linear behavior of hydroclimate proxies. We note that different proxies show variable gradual and abrupt responses to individual hydroclimate events, and thus might have different inherent sensitivities, which may be a factor contributing to the controversy surrounding the abruptness of past events such as the AHP. During the Late Pleistocene the Nile Basin experienced extreme hydroclimate fluctuations, which presumably impacted Paleolithic cultures residing along the Nile corridor.

Highly-seasonal monsoons controlled by Central Asian Eocene epicontinental sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougeois, Laurie; Tindall, Julia; de Rafélis, Marc; Reichart, Gert-Jan; de Nooijer, Lennart; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume

2015-04-01

Modern Asian climate is mainly controlled by seasonal reverse winds driven by continent-ocean thermal contrast. This yields monsoon pattern characterized by a strong seasonality in terms of precipitation and temperature and a duality between humidity along southern and eastern Asia and aridity in Central Asia. According to climate models, Asian Monsoons and aridification have been governed by Tibetan plateau uplift, global climate changes and the retreat of a vast epicontinental sea (the Proto-Paratethys sea) that used to cover Eurasia in Eocene times (55 to 34 Myr ago). Evidence for Asian aridification and monsoons a old as Eocene, are emerging from proxy and model data, however, the role of the Proto-Paratethys sea remains to be established by proxy data. By applying a novel infra-annual geochemical multi-proxy methodology on Eocene oyster shells of the Proto-Paratethys sea and comparing results to climate simulations, we show that the Central Asian region was generally arid with high seasonality from hot and arid summers to wetter winters. This high seasonality in Central Asia supports a monsoonal circulation was already established although the climate pattern was significantly different than today. During winter months, a strong influence of the Proto-Paratethys moisture is indicated by enhanced precipitations significantly higher than today. Precipitation probably dwindled because of the subsequent sea retreat as well as the uplift of the Tibetan and Pamir mountains shielding the westerlies. During Eocene summers, the local climate was hotter and more arid than today despite the presence of the Proto Paratethys. This may be explained by warmer Eocene global conditions with a strong anticyclonic Hadley cell descending at Central Asian latitudes (25 to 45 N). urthermore, the Tibetan plateau emerging at this time to the south must have already contributed a stronger Foehn effect during summer months bringing warm and dry air into Central Asia. Proto-Paratethys moisture driven into Asia by the westerlies during winters provides a potential mechanical link between Eocene global climate and Asian aridification through sea level fluctuations.

Mapping the Proxies of Memory and Learning Function in Senior Adults with High-performing, Normal Aging and Neurocognitive Disorders.

PubMed

Lu, Hanna; Xi, Ni; Fung, Ada W T; Lam, Linda C W

2018-06-09

Memory and learning, as the core brain function, shows controversial results across studies focusing on aging and dementia. One of the reasons is because of the multi-faceted nature of memory and learning. However, there is still a dearth of comparable proxies with psychometric and morphometric portrait in clinical and non-clinical populations. We aim to investigate the proxies of memory and learning function with direct and derived measures and examine their associations with morphometric features in senior adults with different cognitive status. Based on two modality-driven tests, we assessed the component-specific memory and learning in the individuals with high performing (HP), normal aging, and neurocognitive disorders (NCD) (n = 488). Structural magnetic resonance imaging was used to measure the regional cortical thickness with surface-based morphometry analysis in a subsample (n = 52). Compared with HP elderly, the ones with normal aging and minor NCD showed declined recognition memory and working memory, whereas had better learning performance (derived scores). Meanwhile, major NCD patients showed more breakdowns of memory and learning function. The correlation between proxies of memory and learning and cortical thickness exhibited the overlapped and unique neural underpinnings. The proxies of memory and learning could be characterized by component-specific constructs with psychometric and morphometric bases. Overall, the constructs of memory are more likely related to the pathological changes, and the constructs of learning tend to reflect the cognitive abilities of compensation.

Specialist palliative care services for adults with advanced, incurable illness in hospital, hospice, or community settings--protocol for a systematic review.

PubMed

Gaertner, Jan; Siemens, Waldemar; Antes, Gerd; Meerpohl, Joerg J; Xander, Carola; Schwarzer, Guido; Stock, Stephanie; Becker, Gerhild

2015-09-25

Specialist palliative care (SPC) interventions aim to relieve and prevent suffering in the physical, psychological, social, and spiritual domain. Therefore, SPC is carried out by a multi-professional team with different occupations (e.g., physician, nurse, psychologist, and social worker). Remaining skepticism concerning the need for SPC may be based on the scarcity of high-quality evaluations about the external evidence for SPC. Therefore, we will conduct a systematic review according to Cochrane standards to examine the effects of SPC for adults with advanced illness. The comprehensive systematic literature search will include randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster RCTs. We will search the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and PsycINFO. Patients must be adults suffering from life-limiting diseases. Proxy and caregiver outcomes will not be assessed in order to ensure a clear and well-defined research question for this review. Interventions may be in an in- or outpatient setting, e.g., consulting service, palliative care ward, and palliative outpatient clinic. In line with the multi-dimensional scope of palliative care, the primary outcome is quality of life (QoL). Key secondary outcomes are patients' symptom burden, place of death and survival, and health economic aspects. Subgroup analysis will assess results according to cancer type, age, early vs not early SPC, site of care, and setting. Analysis will be performed with the current RevMan software. We will use the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias assessment tool. The quality of evidence will be judged according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The available evidence will be summarized and discussed to provide a basis for decision-making among health care professionals and policy makers. For SPC, we believe that multi-professional care is of utmost importance. Therefore, single-profession interventions such as physician consultations will not be included. Based on the multi-dimensional scope of palliative care, we chose QoL as the primary outcome, despite an expected heterogeneity among the QoL outcomes. We consider unidimensional endpoints such as "pain" for the physical domain to be inadequate for capturing the true scope of (S)PC (i.e., QoL) as defined by the World Health Organization. PROSPERO CRD42015020674.

Climatic variability during the last deglaciation: A stalagmite-based multi-proxy record from Mawmluh cave, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, C.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Routh, J.; Fietz, S.; Mangini, A.; Ghosh, P.; Lone, M. A.; Rangarajan, R.; Eliasson, J.

2016-12-01

The Mawmluh cave in northeastern India, is affected by global climate patterns displaying glacial-interglacial patterns and also the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Precipitation from the ISM plays a vital role for the local community and thus, understanding the driving forces of ISM fluctuations became a recent focus of a number of paleoclimate studies. Here, we used the stalagmite KM-1 from Mawmluh cave to reconstruct climate variability during the last glacial-interglacial transition from 22 to 6 ka. For the first time, molecular proxy data (TEX86 and MBT/CBT derived from isoprenoid and branched GDGTs respectively) were coupled to stable isotope records (δ13C and δ18O) and compared to other speleothem records in Asia. ISM system abruptly transition between a suppressed and active state which is associated to changes in vegetation and thus shifts in δ13C. The abrupt δ13C shift observed in our record indicate changes to wetter climate in the Holocene, which are coupled to increase in abundance of GDGTs indicating higher production and/or transfer to KM-1. The TEX86-derived temperature roughly follows the glaciation-deglaciation cycle and Holocene changes. The TEX86 results show good correspondence with the δ18O records for temperature highlighting the potential for the use of molecular proxy in speleothem based climate reconstructions. While the MBT/CBT proxy is also defined as a temperature proxy it is not coupled with δ18O patterns, and thus shows no clear temperature signal. A decoupling between MBT/CBT from soils and the connected speleothems as well as a precipitation-moisture effect on this proxy have been previously reported. In this particular case the MBT/CBT seems to be better related to precipitation-monsoon changes, and thus warrant further exploration as a complementary proxy to isotope records for monsoon strength.

Climatic and anthropogenic controls on Mississippi River floods: a multi-proxy palaeoflood approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, S. E.; Therrell, M. D.; Remo, J. W.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.

2017-12-01

Over the last century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation, and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment budget and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood risk is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability prior to the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood risk on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), but that artificial channelization has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the last century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the last five hundred years that combines sedimentary, tree-ring, and instrumental records, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood has increased by 20% over the period of record, with 75% of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood risk to levels that are unprecedented within the last five centuries.

Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, K.; Ryves, D. B.; Anderson, N. J.; Bryant, C. L.; Tyler, J. J.

2014-08-01

Equatorial East Africa has a complex regional patchwork of climate regimes, sensitive to climate fluctuations over a variety of temporal and spatial scales during the late Holocene. Understanding how these changes are recorded in and interpreted from biological and geochemical proxies in lake sedimentary records remains a key challenge to answering fundamental questions regarding the nature, spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African palaeo-records. Using a paired lake approach, where neighbouring lakes share the same geology, climate and landscape, it might be expected that the systems will respond similarly to external climate forcing. Sediment cores from two crater lakes in western Uganda spanning the last ~1000 years were examined to assess diatom community responses to late Holocene climate and environmental changes, and to test responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis (RDA). These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. Lakes Nyamogusingiri and Kyasanduka appear to operate as independent systems in their recording of a similar hydrological response signal via distinct diatom records. However, whilst their fossil diatom records demonstrate an individualistic, indirect response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, the inferred lake levels show similar overall trends and reflect the broader patterns observed in Uganda and across East Africa. The lakes appear to be sensitive to large-scale climatic perturbations, with evidence of a dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. AD 1000-1200). The diatom record from Lake Nyamogusingiri suggests a drying climate during the main phase of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (ca. AD 1600-1800), whereas the diatom response from the shallower Lake Kyasanduka is more complex (with groundwater likely playing a key role), and may be driven more by changes in silica and other nutrients, rather than by lake level. The sensitivity of these two Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down in ca. AD 1800, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments, although both proxy records appear to respond to the drought recorded across East Africa in the mid-20th century. The data highlight the complexity of diatom community responses to external drivers (climate or cultural), even in neighbouring, shallow freshwater lakes. This research also illustrates the importance of, and the need to move towards, a multi-lake, multi-proxy landscape approach to understanding regional hydrological change which will allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, climate forcing and ecosystem response models.

Proxy decision making and dementia: Using Construal Level Theory to analyse the thoughts of decision makers.

PubMed

Convey, Helen; Holt, Janet; Summers, Barbara

2018-07-01

This study explored the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to analyse proxy decision maker thinking about a hypothetical ethical dilemma, relating to a person who has dementia. Proxy decision makers make decisions on behalf of individuals who are living with dementia when dementia affects that individual's decision making ability. Ethical dilemmas arise because there is a need to balance the individual's past and contemporary values and views. Understanding of how proxy decision makers respond is incomplete. Construal Level Theory contends that individuals imagine reactions and make predications about the future by crossing psychological distance. This involves abstract thinking, giving meaning to decisions. There is no empirical evidence of Construal Level Theory being used to analyse proxy decision maker thinking. Exploring the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to understand dementia carer thinking regarding proxy decisions may provide insights which inform the support given. Descriptive qualitative research with semi-structured interviews. Seven participants were interviewed using a hypothetical dementia care scenario in February 2016. Interview transcripts were analysed for themes. Construal Level Theory was applied to analyse participant responses within themes using the Linguistic Category Model. Participants travelled across psychological distance, using abstract thinking to clarify goals and provide a basis for decisions. When thinking concretely participants established boundaries regarding the ethical dilemma. Construal Level Theory gives insight into proxy decision maker thinking and the levels of abstraction used. Understanding what dementia carers think about when making proxy decisions may help nurses to understand their perspectives and to provide appropriate support. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparing Apples to Apples: Paleoclimate Model-Data comparison via Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, Sylvia; Emile-Geay, Julien; Evans, Michael; Noone, David

2014-05-01

The wealth of paleodata spanning the last millennium (hereinafter LM) provides an invaluable testbed for CMIP5-class GCMs. However, comparing GCM output to paleodata is non-trivial. High-resolution paleoclimate proxies generally contain a multivariate and non-linear response to regional climate forcing. Disentangling the multivariate environmental influences on proxies like corals, speleothems, and trees can be complex due to spatiotemporal climate variability, non-stationarity, and threshold dependence. Given these and other complications, many paleodata-GCM comparisons take a leap of faith, relating climate fields (e.g. precipitation, temperature) to geochemical signals in proxy data (e.g. δ18O in coral aragonite or ice cores) (e.g. Braconnot et al., 2012). Isotope-enabled GCMs are a step in the right direction, with water isotopes providing a connector point between GCMs and paleodata. However, such studies are still rare, and isotope fields are not archived as part of LM PMIP3 simulations. More importantly, much of the complexity in how proxy systems record and transduce environmental signals remains unaccounted for. In this study we use proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al., 2013) to bridge this conceptual gap. A PSM mathematically encodes the mechanistic understanding of the physical, geochemical and, sometimes biological influences on each proxy. To translate GCM output to proxy space, we have synthesized a comprehensive, consistently formatted package of published PSMs, including δ18O in corals, tree ring cellulose, speleothems, and ice cores. Each PSM is comprised of three sub-models: sensor, archive, and observation. For the first time, these different components are coupled together for four major proxy types, allowing uncertainties due to both dating and signal interpretation to be treated within a self-consistent framework. The output of this process is an ensemble of many (say N = 1,000) realizations of the proxy network, all equally plausible under assumed dating uncertainties. We demonstrate the utility of the PSM framework with an integrative multi-PSM simulation. An intermediate-complexity AGCM with isotope physics (SPEEDY-IER, (Molteni, 2003, Dee et al., in prep)) is used to simulate the isotope hydrology and atmospheric response to SSTs derived from the LM PMIP3 integration of the CCSM4 model (Landrum et al., 2012). Relevant dynamical and isotope variables are then used to drive PSMs, emulating a realistic multiproxy network (Emile-Geay et al., 2013). We then ask the following question: given our best knowledge of proxy systems, what aspects of GCM behavior may be validated, and with what uncertainties? We approach this question via a three-tiered 'perfect model' study. A random realization of the simulated proxy data (hereafter 'PaleoObs') is used as a benchmark in the following comparisons: (1) AGCM output (without isotopes) vs. PaleoObs; (2) AGCM output (with isotopes) vs. PaleoObs; (3) coupled AGCM-PSM-simulated proxy ensemble vs. PaleoObs. Enhancing model-data comparison using PSMs highlights uncertainties that may arise from ignoring non-linearities in proxy-climate relationships, or the presence of age uncertainties (as is most typically done is paleoclimate model-data intercomparison). Companion experiments leveraging the 3 sub-model compartmentalization of PSMs allows us to quantify the contribution of each sub-system to the observed model-data discrepancies. We discuss potential repercussions for model-data comparison and implications for validating predictive climate models using paleodata. References Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Zhao, Y., 06 2012. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nature Clim. Change 2 (6), 417-424. URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456 Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., Wittenberg, A. T., Apr 01 2013. Estimating central equatorial pacific sst variability over the past millennium. part i: Methodology and validation. Journal of Climate 26 (7), 2302-2328. URL http://search.proquest.com/docview/1350277733?accountid=14749 Evans, M., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Thompson, D. M., Anchukaitis, K. J., 2013. Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology. Quaternary Science Reviews. URL http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012QuInt.279U.134E Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Capotondi, A., Lawrence, P. J., Teng, H., 2012. Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4. Journal of Climate (submitted) Molteni, F., 2003. Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Climate Dynamics, 175-191

Measuring the Wage Costs of Limited English: Issues with Using Interviewer versus Self-Reports in Determining Latino Wages

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, Darrick; Goldsmith, Arthur H.; Darity, William, Jr.

2008-01-01

Scholars have found that poor English proficiency is negatively associated with wages using self-reported measures. However, these estimates may suffer from misclassification bias. Interviewer ratings are likely to more accurately proxy employer assessment of worker language ability. Using self-reported and interviewer ratings from the Multi-City…

High-resolution analysis of upper Miocene lake deposits: Evidence for the influence of Gleissberg-band solar forcing

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Mandic, Oleg

2013-01-01

A high-resolution multi-proxy analysis was conducted on a 1.5-m-long core of Tortonian age (~ 10.5 Ma; Late Miocene) from Austria (Europe). The lake sediments were studied with a 1-cm resolution to detect all small-scale variations based on palynomorphs (pollen and dinoflagellate cysts), ostracod abundance, geochemistry (carbon and sulfur) and geophysics (magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma radiation). Based on an already established age model for a longer interval of the same core, this sequence can be limited to approx. two millennia of Late Miocene time with a resolution of ~ 13.7 years per sample. The previous study documented the presence of solar forcing, which was verified within various proxies on this 1.5-m core by a combination of REDFIT spectra and Gaussian filters. Significant repetitive signals ranged in two discrete intervals corresponding roughly to 55–82 and 110–123 years, fitting well within the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle ranges. Based on these results, the environmental changes along the 2000-year Late Miocene sequence are discussed. No major ecological turnovers are expected in this very short interval. Nonetheless, even within this brief time span, dinoflagellates document rapid changes between oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions, which are frequently coupled with lake stratification and dysoxic bottom waters. These phases prevented ostracods and molluscs from settling and promoted the activity of sulfur bacteria. The pollen record indicates rather stable wetland vegetation with a forested hinterland. Shifts in the pollen spectra can be mainly attributed to variations in transport mechanisms. These are represented by a few phases of fluvial input but mainly by changes in wind intensity and probably also wind direction. Such influence is most likely caused by solar cycles, leading to a change in source area for the input into the lake. Furthermore, these solar-induced variations seem to be modulated by longer solar cycles. The filtered data display comparable patterns and modulations, which seem to be forced by the 1000-year and 1500-year cycles. The 1000-year cycle modulated especially the lake surface proxies, whereas the 1500-year cycle is mainly reflected in hinterland proxies, indicating strong influence on transport mechanisms. PMID:23407808

Characterizing the Response of Fluvial Systems to Extreme Global Warming During the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum: An Analysis of the Wasatch and Green River Formations, Uinta Basin, UT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, E. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

2013-12-01

The Wasatch and Green River Formations in the Uinta Basin, UT contain fluvial sandstones that record changes in terrestrial sedimentation coincident with Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and at least six post-PETM hyperthermal climate change events. While proxies for chemical weathering rates during the PETM have been developed using the marine osmium isotope record, to date there has been little research on chemical weathering rates in proximal terrestrial depocenters. This work is one part of a multi-proxy research effort combining quantitative petrographic analysis, the stable carbon isotope record, and a high-resolution stratigraphic and sedimentologic framework across the southern margin of the Uinta Basin. Relative tectonic quiescence in the Uinta Basin during the Early Eocene suggests that climate is the forcing mechanism controlling fluvial architecture and composition, and gradual basin subsidence has preserved at least six pulses of greenhouse climate change during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Terrestrial records of PETM climate do not support a humid climate with increased precipitation as previously suggested from marine proxies of climate change. Instead, terrestrial records of the PETM climate show evidence of prolonged drought punctuated by intense terrestrial flooding events in mid-latitude continental interiors. Increases in chemical weathering rates during the PETM due to increased temperature and average precipitation is cited as a key carbon sink to initiate a recovery phase where atmospheric CO2 returned to normal concentrations. If terrestrial records of chemical weathering rates differ substantially from marine proxies the carbon-cycle dynamics active during the EECO must be reconsidered. Initial results of this study show that these peak hyperthermal climate change conditions in the Uinta Basin preserve more compositionally and texturally immature sediments due to extremely high erosion and deposition rates, and subdued duration of transport. In particular the relative proportions of preserved potassium and especially plagioclase feldspar are sensitive to these pulses of greenhouse climate change. This dataset suggests that the seasonality of sediment dispersal and transport can play a more important role in the preservation potential of unstable mineral phases in the sedimentary record than just variations in global chemical weathering rates. Compositional variability in perenially wet and peaked seasonality facies in fluvial sandstones in the Wasatch Formation.

Deciphering Late-Pleistocence landscape evolution: linking proxies by combining pedo-stratigraphy and luminescence dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreutzer, Sebastian; Meszner, Sascha; Faust, Dominik; Fuchs, Markus

2014-05-01

Interpreting former landscape evolution asks for understanding the processes that sculpt such landforms by means of deciphering complex systems. For reconstructing terrestrial Quaternary environments based on loess archives this might be considered, at least, as a three step process: (1) Identifying valuable records in appropriate morphological positions in a previously defined research area, (2) analysing the profiles by field work and laboratory methods and finally (3) linking the previously considered pseudo-isolated systems to set up a comprehensive picture. Especially the first and the last step might bring some pitfalls, as it is tempting to specify single records as pseudo-isolated, closed systems. They might be, with regard to their preservation in their specific morphological position, but in fact they are part of a complex, open system. Between 2008 and 2013, Late-Pleistocene loess archives in Saxony have been intensively investigated by field and laboratory methods. Linking pedo- and luminescence dating based chronostratigraphies, a composite profile for the entire Saxonian Loess Region has been established. With this, at least, two-fold approach we tried to avoid misinterpretations that might appear when focussing on one standard profile in an open morphological system. Our contribution focuses on this multi-proxy approach to decipher the Late-Pleistocene landscape evolution in the Saxonian Loess Region. Highlighting the challenges and advantages of combining different methods, we believe that (1) this multi-proxy approach is without alternative, (2) the combination of different profiles may simplify the more complex reality, but it may be a useful generalisation to understand and reveal the stratigraphical significance of the landscape evolution in this region.

Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

Temperature record and sapropel formation during the late Pliocene in central Mediterranean: a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancq, Julien; Grossi, Vincent; Huguet, Carme; Pittet, Bernard; Rosell-Mele, Antoni; Mattioli, Emanuela

2014-05-01

The late Pliocene (Piacenzian; 3.6-2.6 Myr) in the Mediterranean region is characterized by the deposition of organic-rich sedimentary layers named sapropels. Sapropel formation has been related to the strengthening of the precessionally-controlled African monsoon, triggering enhanced primary productivity and/or improved organic matter preservation. However, the relative importance of surface-ocean productivity versus deep-water preservation for sapropel formation remains a long standing debate among the science community. Here, we used a multi-proxy approach to characterize long-term environmental conditions and to discuss sapropel formation during the late Pliocene at Punta Grande/Punta Piccola sections (southwest Sicily). Sea and air temperatures were reconstructed using all the lipid biomarker-based temperature proxies currently available: the alkenone unsaturation index (UK'37), the tetraether index (TEX86), the Long-chain Diol Index (LDI), and the degree of methylation/cyclization of branched tetraether (MBT/CBT). Results show that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were relatively stable throughout the late Pliocene, but that consistent increases are recorded in most sapropel layers. SST record was then compared with variations in total organic carbon proportions, lipid biomarkers contents and nannofossil assemblages. Based on these observations, two mechanisms of formation can be inferred for each sapropel. A first series of sapropels is likely due to a better preservation of organic matter, due to the development of a thermohaline stratification of the water column and to oxygen depleted bottom waters. The second series of sapropels is more likely due to enhanced primary productivity in a non-stratified water column.

Multi-proxy Reconstructions of Deglacial Variability of Antarctic Intermediate Water Circulation in the Western Tropical Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, K.; Oppo, D.; Curry, W. B.

2012-12-01

Reconstruction of changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) circulation across the last deglaciation is critical in constraining the links between AAIW and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and understanding how AAIW influences oceanic heat transport and carbon budget across abrupt climate events. Here we systematically establish in situ calibrations for carbonate saturation state (B/Ca), nutrient (Cd/Ca and δ13C) and watermass proxies (ɛNd) in foraminifera using multicore tops and ambient seawater samples collected from the Demerara Rise, western tropical Atlantic. Through the multi-proxy reconstructions, deglacial variability of intermediate water circulation in the western tropical Atlantic can be further constrained. The reconstructed seawater Cd record from the Demerara Rise sediment core (KNR197-3-46CDH, at 947 m water depth) over the last 21 kyrs suggests reduced presence of AAIW during the cold intervals (LGM, H1 and YD) when AMOC was reduced. Down-core B/Ca record shows elevated intermediate water Δ[CO32-] during these cold intervals, further indicating a weaker influence of AAIW in the western tropical Atlantic. The δ13C record exhibits a pronounced deglacial minimum and a clear decoupling between δ13C and Cd/Ca after the AMOC completely recovered at around 8 kyr BP. This could be due to the carbonate ion effect on benthic Cd/Ca or the influence of organic matter remineralization on benthic δ13C. A new ɛNd record for the last deglaciation will be provided to evaluate the relative proportions of southern and northern waters at this intermediate site in the western tropical Atlantic.

Validation of a proxy for estrogen receptor status in breast cancer patients using dispensing data.

PubMed

Srasuebkul, Preeyaporn; Dobbins, Timothy A; Pearson, Sallie-Anne

2014-06-01

To assess the performance of a proxy for estrogen receptor (ER) status in breast cancer patients using dispensing data. We derived our proxy using 167 patients. ER+ patients had evidence of at least one dispensing record for hormone therapy during the lookback period, irrespective of diagnosis date and ER- had no dispensing records for hormone therapy during the period. We validated the proxy against our gold standard, ER status from pathology reports or medical records. We assessed the proxy's performance using three lookback periods: 4.5 years, 2 years, 1 year. More than half of our cohort (62%) were >50 years, 54% had stage III/IV breast cancer at recruitment, (46%) were diagnosed with breast cancer in 2009 and 23% were diagnosed before 2006. Sensitivity and specificity were high for the 4.5 year lookback period (93%, 95% CI: 86-96%; and 95%: 83-99%), respectively) and remained high for the 2-year lookback period (91%: 84-95%; and 95%: 83-99%). Sensitivity decreased (83%: 75.2-89%) but specificity remained high (95%: 83-99%) using the 1-year lookback period and the period is long enough to allow sufficient time for hormone therapy to be dispensed. Our proxy accurately infers ER status in studies of breast cancer treatment based on secondary health data. The proxy is most robust with a minimum lookback period of 2 years. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Examination of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction methods using a simple climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, In-Sik; Yoo, Jin Ho

2006-02-01

A simple climate model was designed as a proxy for the real climate system, and a number of prediction models were generated by slightly perturbing the physical parameters of the simple model. A set of long (240 years) historical hindcast predictions were performed with various prediction models, which are used to examine various issues of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction, such as the best ways of blending multi-models and the selection of models. Based on these results, we suggest a feasible way of maximizing the benefit of using multi models in seasonal prediction. In particular, three types of multi-model ensemble prediction systems, i.e., the simple composite, superensemble, and the composite after statistically correcting individual predictions (corrected composite), are examined and compared to each other. The superensemble has more of an overfitting problem than the others, especially for the case of small training samples and/or weak external forcing, and the corrected composite produces the best prediction skill among the multi-model systems.

Behavioral Problems and Childhood Epilepsy: Parent vs Child Perspectives.

PubMed

Eom, Soyong; Caplan, Rochelle; Berg, Anne T

2016-12-01

To test whether the reported association between pediatric epilepsy and behavioral problems may be distorted by the use of parental proxy report instruments. Children in the Connecticut Study of Epilepsy were assessed 8-9 years after their epilepsy diagnosis (time-1) with the parent-proxy Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) (ages 6-18 years) or the Young Adult Self-Report (≥18 years of age). For children <18 years of age, parents also completed the Child Health Questionnaire, which contains scales for impact of child's illness on the parents. The same study subjects completed the Adult Self-Report 6-8 years later (time-2). Sibling controls were also tested. Case-control differences were examined for evidence suggesting more behavioral problems in cases with epilepsy than in controls based on proxy- vs self-report measures. At time-1, parent-proxy CBCL scores were significantly higher (worse) for cases than controls (n = 140 matched pairs). After adjustment for Child Health Questionnaire scales reflecting parent emotional and time impact, only 1 case-control difference on the CBCL remained significant. Self-reported Young Adult Self-Report scores did not differ between cases and controls (n = 42 pairs). At time-2, there were no significant self-reported case-control differences on the Adult Self-Report (n = 105 pairs). Parent-proxy behavior measures appear to be influenced by the emotional impact of epilepsy on parents. This may contribute to apparent associations between behavioral problems and childhood epilepsy. Self-report measures in older adolescents (>18 years of age) and young adults do not confirm parental perceptions. Evidence suggesting more behavioral problems in children with epilepsy should be interpreted in light of the source of information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Older adults’ attitudes toward noncompetent subjects participating in Alzheimers research

PubMed Central

Karlawish, Jason; Rubright, Jonathan; Casarett, David; Cary, Mark; TenHave, Thomas; Sankar, Pamela

2008-01-01

Objective Since research that enrolls noncompetent patients with Alzheimers disease and does not present potential benefit to subjects is the source of substantial ethical controversy, we assessed willingness to have a proxy for research decision making, and, for each of two Alzheimers disease biomarker studies (minimal risk blood draw and a greater than minimal risk blood draw and lumbar puncture), willingness to grant an advance consent, and willingness to grant a proxy leeway over advance consent. Methods Face to face survey of 538 persons 65 and over who resided in the Southeastern Pennsylvania region Results The majority 83% (445/538) granted advance consent to a blood draw study and nearly half to a blood draw plus lumbar puncture 259 (48%). Most persons (96%) were willing to identify a proxy for research decision making and most were willing to grant their proxy leeway over their advance consent: blood draw 434 (81%), and 375 (70%) blood draw plus lumbar puncture. Combining the preferences for advance consent and leeway, the proportion who would permit being enrolled in the blood draw and spinal fluid sample studies were, respectively, 92% (497/538) and 75% (404/538). Multi-variate models showed that willingness to be enrolled in research was most strongly associated with a favorable attitude about biomedical research. Conclusions Older adults generally support enrolling noncompetent persons with Alzheimers disease into research that does not present a benefit to subjects. Willingness to grant their proxy leeway over advance consent and a favorable attitude about biomedical research substantially explain this willingness. PMID:18923066

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert K.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; Cook, Edward; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Dietze, Michael C.; Hessl, Amy; Hubeny, J. Bradford; Jackson, Stephen T.; Marsicek, Jeremiah; McLachlan, Jason S.; Mock, Cary J.; Moore, David J. P.; Nichols, Jonathan M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Schaefer, Kevin; Trouet, Valerie; Umbanhowar, Charles; Williams, John W.; Yu, Zicheng

2017-01-01

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks, including vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, are strongly influenced by multi-decadal to millennial-scale variations in climate that cannot be captured by instrumental climate observations. Paleoclimate information is therefore essential for understanding contemporary ecosystems and their potential trajectories under a variety of future climate conditions. With the exception of fossil pollen records, there are a limited number of northeastern US (NE US) paleoclimate archives that can provide constraints on its temperature and hydroclimate history. Moreover, the records that do exist have not been considered together. Tree-ring data indicate that the 20th century was one of the wettest of the past 500 years in the eastern US (Pederson et al., 2014), and lake-level records suggest it was one of the wettest in the Holocene (Newby et al., 2014); how such results compare with other available data remains unclear, however. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions are consistent with the long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE–1700 CE) evident in hemispheric-scale reconstructions, but hydroclimate reconstructions reveal new information, including an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. NE US paleo data suggest that conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly were warmer and drier than during the Little Ice Age, and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration over the past century of a longer-term wetting trend in the NE US, and coupled with the abrupt shift from a cooling trend to a warming trend from increased greenhouse gases, may have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US, make inter-proxy comparisons, and improve estimates of uncertainty in the reconstructions.

Late-Holocene vegetation and climate change in Jeju Island, Korea and its implications for ENSO influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jungjae; Shin, Young Ho; Byrne, Roger

2016-12-01

Several recent studies suggest the hypothesis that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor controlling the Holocene East Asian Monsoon (EAM). However, the mechanism underlying this influence remains unclear due to the lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records from the coast of East Asia. Here, we provide a new record of late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia based on multi-proxy evidence (pollen, organic content, magnetic susceptibility, grain size) obtained from a sediment core from Jeju Island, South Korea. As Jeju Island is strongly influenced by the Kuroshio flow, our sediment proxy records contain ENSO signals from the tropical Pacific. The study area was affected by dry/cool conditions in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) between 4350 and 1920 cal yr BP when El Niños were frequent, and by rapid warming/wetting and forestation since 1920 cal yr BP when La Niñas were more common. Jeju Island was relatively dry/cool between 2100 and 1600, 1300-1200, 1100-1000, 800-650, and 300-50 cal yr BP, as opposed to the Galápagos Islands, which were relatively wet/warm, reflecting the ENSO-related negative correlation between eastern and western margins of Pacific. Wet conditions may have prevailed during the early Little Ice Age (LIA) (620-280 cal yr BP) despite consistent cooling. This period of high precipitation may have been associated with the increased landfall of typhoons and with warmer Kuroshio currents under La Niña-like conditions. According to our results, EAM on the East Asian coastal margin was predominantly driven by ENSO activity, rather than by the precession effect. Paleoclimatic data from Jeju Island, with its insular position and closeness to warm Kuroshio currents, provide clear evidence of these ENSO influences.

Could strength of exposure to the residential neighbourhood modify associations between walkability and physical activity?

PubMed

Ivory, Vivienne C; Blakely, Tony; Pearce, Jamie; Witten, Karen; Bagheri, Nasser; Badland, Hannah; Schofield, Grant

2015-12-01

The importance of neighbourhoods for health and wellbeing may vary according to an individual's reliance on their local resources, but this assertion is rarely tested. We investigate whether greater neighbourhood 'exposure' through reliance on or engagement with the residential setting magnifies neighbourhood-health associations. Three built environment characteristics (destination density, streetscape (attractiveness of built environment) and street connectivity) and two physical activity components (weekday and weekend accelerometer counts) were measured for 2033 residents living in 48 neighbourhoods within four New Zealand cities in 2009-2010, giving six different built environment-physical activity associations. Interactions for each built environment-physical activity association with four individual-level characteristics (acting as proxies for exposure: gender, working status, car access, and income) were assessed with multi-level regression models; a total of 24 'tests'. Of the 12 weekday built environment-physical activity tests, 5 interaction terms were significant (p < 0.05) in the expected direction (e.g. stronger streetscape-physical activity among those with restricted car access). For weekend tests, one association was statistically significant. No significant tests were contradictory. Pooled across the 12 weekday physical activity 'tests', a 1 standard deviation increase in the walkability of the built environment was associated with an overall 3.8% (95% CI: 3.6%-4.1%) greater increase in weekday physical activity across all the types of people we hypothesised to spend more time in their residential neighbourhood, and for weekend physical activity it was 4.2% (95% CI 3.9%-4.5%). Using multiple evaluation methods, interactions were in line with our hypothesis, with a stronger association seen for proxy exposure indicators (for example, restricted car access). Added to the wider evidence base, our study strengthens causal evidence of an effect of the built environment on physical activity, and highlights that health gains from improvements of the residential neighbourhood may be greater for some people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Labrador Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: Calcite dissolution or low biogenic carbonate fluxes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Nicole; de Vernal, Anne; Mucci, Alfonso; Filippova, Alexandra; Kienast, Markus

2017-04-01

Low concentrations of biogenic carbonate characterize the sediments deposited in the Labrador Sea during the last glaciation. This may reflect poor calcite preservation and/or low biogenic carbonate productivity and fluxes. Regional bottom water ventilation was reduced during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), so the calcite lysocline might have been shallower than at present in the deep Labrador Sea making dissolution of calcite shells in the deep Labrador Sea possible. To address the issue, a multi-proxy approach based on micropaleontological counts (coccoliths, foraminifers, palynomorphs) and biogeochemical analyses (alkenones) was applied in the investigation of core HU2008-029-004-PC recovered in the northwestern Labrador Sea. Calcite dissolution indices based on the relative abundance benthic foraminifera shells to their organic linings as well as on fragmentation of planktonic foraminifera shells were used to evaluate changes in calcite dissolution/ preservation since the LGM. In addition, the ratio of the concentrations of coccoliths, specifically of the alkenone-producer Emiliania huxleyi, and alkenones (Emiliania huxleyi: alkenones) was explored as a potential new proxy of calcite dissolution. A sharp increase in coccoliths, foraminifers and organic linings from nearly none to substantial concentrations at 12 ka, reflect a jump to significantly greater biogenic fluxes at the glacial-interglacial transition. Furthermore, conventional dissolution indices (shells/linings of benthic foraminifera and fragmentation of planktic foraminifers) reveal that dissolution is not likely responsible for the lower glacial abundances of coccoliths and foraminifers. Only the low Emiliania huxleyi: alkenones ratios in glacial sediments could be interpreted as evidence of increased dissolution during the LGM. Given the evidence of allochthonous alkenone input into the glacial Labrador Sea, the latter observations must be treated with caution. Overall, the records indicate that low biogenic fluxes during the LGM were the most likely cause of the decreased biogenic carbonate concentrations.

Cognitive Reserve in Healthy Aging and Alzheimer's Disease: A Meta-Analysis of fMRI Studies.

PubMed

Colangeli, Stefano; Boccia, Maddalena; Verde, Paola; Guariglia, Paola; Bianchini, Filippo; Piccardi, Laura

2016-08-01

Cognitive reserve (CR) has been defined as the ability to optimize or maximize performance through differential recruitment of brain networks. In the present study, we aimed at providing evidence for a consistent brain network underpinning CR in healthy and pathological aging. To pursue this aim, we performed a coordinate-based meta-analysis of 17 functional magnetic resonance imaging studies on CR proxies in healthy aging, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We found that different brain areas were associated with CR proxies in healthy and pathological aging. A wide network of areas, including medial and lateral frontal areas, that is, anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, as well as precuneus, was associated with proxies of CR in healthy elderly patients. The CR proxies in patients with AD and amnesic-MCI were associated with activation in the anterior cingulate cortex. These results were discussed hypothesizing the existence of possible compensatory mechanisms in healthy and pathological aging. © The Author(s) 2016.

Solar wind variations in the 60-100 year period range: A review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feynman, J.

1983-01-01

The evidence for and against the reality of a solar wind variation in the period range of 60-100 years is reexamined. Six data sets are reviewed; sunspot numbers, geomagnetic variations, two auroral data sets and two (14)C data sets. These data are proxies for several different aspects of the solar wind and the presence or absence of 60-100 year cyclic behavior in a particular data set does not necessarily imply the presence or absence of this variation in other sets. It was concluded that two different analyses of proxy data for a particular characteristic of the heliospheric solar wind yielded conflicting results. This conflict can be resolved only by future research. It is also definitely confirmed that proxy data for the solar wind in the ecliptic at 1 A.U. undergo a periodic variation with a period of approximately 87 years. The average amplitude and phase of this variation as seen in eleven cycles of proxy data are presented.

The Halo Boundary of Galaxy Clusters in the SDSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baxter, Eric; Chang, Chihway; Jain, Bhuvnesh; Adhikari, Susmita; Dalal, Neal; Kravtsov, Andrey; More, Surhud; Rozo, Eduardo; Rykoff, Eli; Sheth, Ravi K.

2017-05-01

Analytical models and simulations predict a rapid decline in the halo density profile associated with the transition from the “infalling” regime outside the halo to the “collapsed” regime within the halo. Using data from SDSS, we explore evidence for such a feature in the density profiles of galaxy clusters using several different approaches. We first estimate the steepening of the outer galaxy density profile around clusters, finding evidence for truncation of the halo profile. Next, we measure the galaxy density profile around clusters using two sets of galaxies selected on color. We find evidence of an abrupt change in galaxy colors that coincides with the location of the steepening of the density profile. Since galaxies that have completed orbits within the cluster are more likely to be quenched of star formation and thus appear redder, this abrupt change in galaxy color can be associated with the transition from single-stream to multi-stream regimes. We also use a standard model comparison approach to measure evidence for a “splashback”-like feature, but find that this approach is very sensitive to modeling assumptions. Finally, we perform measurements using an independent cluster catalog to test for potential systematic errors associated with cluster selection. We identify several avenues for future work: improved understanding of the small-scale galaxy profile, lensing measurements, identification of proxies for the halo accretion rate, and other tests. With upcoming data from the DES, KiDS, and HSC surveys, we can expect significant improvements in the study of halo boundaries.

Drought in the northern Bahamas from 3300 to 2500 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Hengstum, Peter J.; Maale, Gerhard; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Albury, Nancy A.; Onac, Bogdan P.; Sullivan, Richard M.; Winkler, Tyler S.; Tamalavage, Anne E.; MacDonald, Dana

2018-04-01

Intensification and western displacement of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) is projected for this century, which can decrease Caribbean and southeastern American rainfall on seasonal and annual timescales. However, additional hydroclimate records are needed from the northern Caribbean to understand the long-term behavior of the NASH, and better forecast its future behavior. Here we present a multi-proxy sinkhole lake reconstruction from a carbonate island that is proximal to the NASH (Abaco Island, The Bahamas). The reconstruction indicates the northern Bahamas experienced a drought from ∼3300 to ∼2500 Cal yrs BP, which coincides with evidence from other hydroclimate and oceanographic records (e.g., Africa, Caribbean, and South America) for a synchronous southern displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and North Atlantic Hadley Cell. The specific cause of the hydroclimate change in the northeastern Caribbean region from ∼3300 to 2500 Cal yrs BP was probably coeval southern or western displacement of the NASH, which would have increased northeastern Caribbean exposure to subsiding air from higher altitudes.

Potential for timing high-energy marine inundation events in the recent geological past through age-dating of reef boulders in Fiji

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, James P.; Etienne, Samuel

2014-12-01

Transported coastal boulders have increasingly come to represent a valuable element of investigations within the broader framework of multi-proxy approaches applied to coastal hazard studies. Through a case study on Taveuni Island in Fiji, this paper outlines some approaches and hindrances to effective timing of prehistorical high-energy marine inundation events (storms and tsunamis) on tropical coastlines from the evidence of reef-platform carbonate boulders. Various sources of errors are outlined that investigators must consider when attempting to use carbonate boulder ages as a surrogate for timing past events. On Taveuni, uranium : thorium dates with a high level of precision (1-7 years) suggest that major inundation events have a return period of approximately 40-45 years since 1650 AD. Of particular importance, considerably different age dates are provided by coral samples sourced from the top and bottom (i.e. opposite faces) of individual boulders, so highlighting interpretation biases that must be avoided.

An experimental 392-year documentary-based multi-proxy (vine and grain) reconstruction of May-July temperatures for Kőszeg, West-Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Wilson, Rob; Bariska, István

2011-07-01

In this paper, we present a 392-year-long preliminary temperature reconstruction for western Hungary. The reconstructed series is based on five vine- and grain-related historical phenological series from the town of Kőszeg. We apply dendrochronological methods for both signal assessment of the phenological series and the resultant temperature reconstruction. As a proof of concept, the present reconstruction explains 57% of the temperature variance of May-July Budapest mean temperatures and is well verified with coefficient of efficiency values in excess of 0.45. The developed temperature reconstruction portrays warm conditions during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries with a period of cooling until the coldest reconstructed period centred around 1815, which was followed by a period of warming until the 1860s. The phenological evidence analysed here represent an important data source from which non-biased estimates of past climate can be derived that may provide information at all possible time-scales.

Differential Effects of Ocean Acidification on Coral Calcification: Insights from Geochemistry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holcomb, M.; Decarlo, T. M.; Venn, A.; Tambutte, E.; Gaetani, G. A.; Tambutte, S.; Allemand, D.; McCulloch, M. T.

2014-12-01

Although ocean acidification is expected to negatively impact calcifying animals due to the formation of CaCO3 becoming less favorable, experimental evidence is mixed. Corals have received considerable attention in this regard; laboratory culture experiments show there to be a wide array of calcification responses to acidification. Here we will show how relationships for the incorporation of various trace elements and boron isotopes into synthetic aragonite can be used to reconstruct carbonate chemistry at the site of calcification. In turn the chemistry at the site of calcification can be determined under different ocean acidification scenarios and differences in the chemistry at the site of calcification linked to different calcification responses to acidification. Importantly we will show that the pH of the calcifying fluid alone is insufficient to estimate calcification responses, thus a multi-proxy approach using multiple trace elements and isotopes is required to understand how the site of calcification is affected by ocean acidification.

The epidemiology of bovine respiratory disease: What is the evidence for predisposing factors?

PubMed Central

Taylor, Jared D.; Fulton, Robert W.; Lehenbauer, Terry W.; Step, Douglas L.; Confer, Anthony W.

2010-01-01

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most costly disease of beef cattle in North America. It is multi-factorial, with a variety of physical and physiological stressors combining to predispose cattle to pneumonia. However, efforts to discern which factors are most important have frequently failed to establish definitive answers. Calves are at highest risk shortly after transport. Risk factors include purchasing from sale barns and commingling. It is unclear whether or not these practices increase susceptibility, increase exposure, or are proxies for poor management. Lighter-weight calves appear to be at greater risk, although this has not been consistent. Persistent infection (PI) with bovine virus diarrhea virus increases BRD occurrence, but it is unclear if PI calves affect other cattle in the feedlot. The complexity of BRD has made it difficult to define involvement of individual factors. Stressors may play a role as “necessary but not sufficient” components, requiring additive effects to cause disease. PMID:21197200

The timing and importance of arboriculture and agroforestry in a temperate East Polynesia Society, the Moriori, Rekohu (Chatham Island)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Jacobsen, Geraldine E.; Barber, Ian G.

2016-10-01

Identifying arboriculture and agroforestry in Polynesian Societies has usually relied heavily upon the ethnographic record in the absence of direct archaeological evidence. In this paper we outline a multi-proxy research design, including ethnography, palynology, anthracology, archaeology and a high precision chronology to evaluate arboriculture and agroforestry as components of Moriori subsistence practices before the arrival of Europeans in 1791. The colonisers of Rekohu brought with them a mainland New Zealand endemic tree, Corynocarpus laevigatus, and the technology to propagate the tree in a less than ideal climate and to process its drupe into a storable source of carbohydrate in what was a difficult environment for Polynesian cultivation practices. We also present a conceptual model of forest change due to Moriori fuel selection practices which suggests that Moriori were actively managing these forest spaces for food, fuel, medicine, construction material and as a habitation space, therefore making agroforestry an important component of Moriori subsistence.

Structural Assimilation Revisited: Mexican-Origin Nativity and Cross-Ethnic Primary Ties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Susan K.

2006-01-01

Classical assimilation theory postulates that over time, members of immigrant groups will develop more primary ties with native members of the host society. However, lack of data has led most research to rely on the study of either spatial mobility or other secondary variables as proxies of primary ties. Using data from the Multi-City Study of…

A multi-proxy climatic record from the central Tengger Desert, southern Mongolian Plateau: Implications for the aridification of inner Asia since the late Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zaijun; Wang, Fei; Wang, Xin; Li, Baofeng; Chen, Fahu

2018-07-01

Aridification of the Asian interior is one of the most significant paleoenvironmental events during the Cenozoic. However, continuous paleoclimatic records from desert interiors are scarce because of the lack of outcrops, erosion and discontinuous sediment accumulation. Here we report a multi-proxy climatic record for the last ∼3.55 Ma from paleomagnetically-dated drilling core WEDP01 from the central Tengger Desert, which is one of the most important sediment source areas for Northern Hemisphere atmospheric dust and the Chinese Loess Plateau. Analysis of grain-size components indicates the onset of continuous dust deposition at 2.6 Ma and desert formation at 0.9 Ma. In addition, analysis of major element content and sediment color reveals a stepwise process of increasing aridification and significant cooling in the Tengger Desert area. Simultaneous aridification events in northwest China during the Quaternary were probably induced by the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Northern Hemisphere glaciation may have been another important factor for Asian aridification; meanwhile, the increased dust emission from sources such as the Tengger Desert may provide a positive feedback mechanism for global cooling.

Multiscale combination of climate model simulations and proxy records over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Tian, Qinhua

2018-05-01

To highlight the compatibility of climate model simulation and proxy reconstruction at different timescales, a timescale separation merging method combining proxy records and climate model simulations is presented. Annual mean surface temperature anomalies for the last millennium (851-2005 AD) at various scales over the land of the Northern Hemisphere were reconstructed with 2° × 2° spatial resolution, using an optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. All target series were decomposed using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method followed by power spectral analysis. Four typical components were obtained at inter-annual, decadal, multidecadal, and centennial timescales. A total of 323 temperature-sensitive proxy chronologies were incorporated after screening for each component. By scaling the proxy components using variance matching and applying a localized OI algorithm to all four components point by point, we obtained merged surface temperatures. Independent validation indicates that the most significant improvement was for components at the inter-annual scale, but this became less evident with increasing timescales. In mid-latitude land areas, 10-30% of grids were significantly corrected at the inter-annual scale. By assimilating the proxy records, the merged results reduced the gap in response to volcanic forcing between a pure reconstruction and simulation. Difficulty remained in verifying the centennial information and quantifying corresponding uncertainties, so additional effort should be devoted to this aspect in future research.

Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lobsiger, Simon; Fischer, Daniela; Tylmann, Wojciech; Bonk, Alicja; Filipiak, Janusz; Grosjean, Martin

2014-12-01

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N-22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380-730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907-2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011-2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

Multiple oscillations during the Lateglacial as recorded in a multi-proxy, high-resolution record of the Moervaart palaeolake (NW Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bos, Johanna A. A.; De Smedt, Philippe; Demiddele, Hendrik; Hoek, Wim Z.; Langohr, Roger; Marcelino, Vera; Van Asch, Nelleke; Van Damme, Dirk; Van der Meeren, Thijs; Verniers, Jacques; Boeckx, Pascal; Boudin, Mathieu; Court-Picon, Mona; Finke, Peter; Gelorini, Vanessa; Gobert, Stefan; Heiri, Oliver; Martens, Koen; Mostaert, Frank; Serbruyns, Lynn; Van Strydonck, Mark; Crombé, Philippe

2017-04-01

This paper presents the results of multi-disciplinary research carried out on the deposits of Moervaart depression, NW Belgium, one of the largest palaeolakes (∼25 km2) that existed during the Lateglacial interstadial in NW Europe. The multi-proxy study, including physical (organic matter and calcium carbonate, magnetic susceptibility, micromorphological), botanical (pollen, macrofossils, diatoms), zoological (ostracods, molluscs, chironomids) and chemical analyses (stable carbon and oxygen isotopes) has resulted in a detailed reconstruction of the Lateglacial landscape as well of the local conditions that prevailed in the lake itself. A chronology of the record was provided by radiocarbon dating and comparison with radiocarbon dates of the nearby Rieme site. These yielded a good match with the regional biostratigraphy. During the Lateglacial, vegetation and geomorphology of the landscape in general changed from a tundra landscape to a boreal forest. The vegetation development, however, was interrupted by a number of cold reversals. Three centennial-scale cold oscillations are present in the record: 1) the so-called Older Dryas corresponding to GI-1d in the Greenland ice-cores, 2) a short and pronounced cold event during the early Allerød, which could be correlated to GI-1c2 and 3) a cooling event during the late Allerød probably corresponding to the Intra Allerød Cold Period (IACP) or GI-1b. The latter most likely was responsible for the disappearance of the Moervaart palaeolake.

The diatom flora of Lake Kinneret (Israel) - Paleolimnological evidence for Holocene climate change and human impact in the southeastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vossel, Hannah; Reed, Jane M.; Litt, Thomas

2015-04-01

The Mediterranean basin is a region of highly complex topography and climatic variability, such that our understanding of the past environmental variability is still limited. Diatoms (single-celled siliceous algae, Bacillariophyceae) are abundant, diverse and sensitive to a wide range of environmental parameters. They are often well preserved in lake sediment records, and have well-recognised potential to generate high-quality paleolimnological data. Diatoms remain one of the least-exploited proxies in Mediterranean palaeoclimate research. Here, we present results of diatom analysis of an 18 m sediment core from Lake Kinneret (Israel) as part of a multi-proxy study of Holocene climate change and human impact in the Levant (http://www.sfb806.uni-koeln.de). Results are compared with other proxy data including pollen, and with output data from regional climate modelling, to strengthen interpretation of environmental change in the southeastern Mediterranean. The results show remarkable shifts in the diatom flora over the last ca. 8,000 years. Preliminary investigations show that 98% of the diatom taxa can be classified as oligohalobous-indifferent and as alkaliphilous, as is typical of freshwater, alkaline lakes of open hydrology in limestone, karst-dominated catchments. Changes in the diatom data over time can be interpreted mainly in terms of productivity shifts, with a clear trend from oligotrophic at the base to hypereutrophic in the modern lake. The eutrophication trend accelerates after ca. 3,000 cal. yrs. BP, indicating the influence of increased human activity in the catchment, identified previously by analysis of the vegetational history (Schiebel, 2013). The analysis of the composition of the diatom flora also provides some evidence for lake-level fluctuations, as a proxy for shifts in moisture availability. Low lake-level stands are characterized by low diatom concentration and increased relative abundance of littoral taxa. High lake-level stands are marked by the clear dominance of planktonic species, such as Cyclotella ocellata PANTOCSEK and Cyclotella paleo-ocellata VOSSEL & VAN DE VIJVER (a newly described centric diatom which may be endemic (Vossel et al., 2015), in phases of high diatom concentration. Such inferred lake-level oscillations correlate well with the output from the climatic models from the Levant region, representing changes in moisture availability (Litt et al., 2012), although the signal is obscured in the last 3,000 years by the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication. References Litt, T.; Ohlwein, C.; Neumann, F. H.; Hense, A. & Stein, M. (2012): Holocene climate variability in the Levant from the Dead Sea pollen record. - Quat. Sci. Rev., 49: 95-105. Schiebel, V. (2013): Vegetation and climate history of the southern Levant during the last 30,000 years based on palynological investigation. - Unpublished PhD thesis. Vossel, H.; Reed, J. M.; Houk, V.; Cvetkoska, A. & Van de Vijver, B. (2015): Cyclotella paleo-ocellata, a new centric diatom (Bacillariophyta) from Lake Kinneret (Israel). Fottea, 15 (1), in press.

Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

2013-12-01

Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and compared to other proxy records. (2) a multiproxy reconstruction of temperature over the Common Era (Mann et al., 2009), where we find that about one third of the records display significant departures from normality. Accordingly, accounting for skewness in proxy predictors has a notable influence on both reconstructed global mean and spatial patterns of temperature change. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records thus requires cares, but can be done with relatively simple tools. References - Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, D. Shindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326(5957), 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303. - Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and D. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activ- ity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165.

The environmental, archaeological and historical evidence for regional climatic changes and their societal impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izdebski, Adam; Pickett, Jordan; Roberts, Neil; Waliszewski, Tomasz

2016-03-01

This paper examines the evidence for climatic changes in the Eastern Mediterranean for the period 200-800 AD and offers hypotheses on the role of climatic fluctuations in the societal developments that occurred in this region at the end of Antiquity. The geographical focus of the paper includes Anatolia and the Levant, two major regions of the Eastern Roman Empire that are rich in environmental, historical and archaeological data. The paper starts with the review of current research on the economic, settlement and vegetation history of the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity, which provides the necessary framework for the study of potential climate impacts. The core of the article is devoted to the analysis of the palaeoclimatic evidence, which is divided in two groups. The first one encompasses the direct evidence, that is palaeoclimate proxies and the textual record of extreme weather events, while the second includes indirect information on climate, in particular multi-proxy studies that include pollen analysis, archaeological evidence, and the historical evidence of subsistence crises. We conclude that during our study period there occurred three periods of substantially different climatic conditions. A late Roman drought ∼350-470 AD was followed by a dramatic shift to much wetter climatic conditions. These in turn changed into increasing dryness after ∼730 AD in Anatolia and ∼670 AD in the Levant. The lack of chronological precision in the dating of the archaeological evidence and of some climatic records makes it impossible at present to make conclusive observations regarding the societal responses to these climatic fluctuations. Nonetheless in all probability, the extended and - in some areas - severe late Roman drought did not cause any major social upheaval or economic decline in Anatolia or the Levant, although it appears to have contributed to a change in patterns of water use in the cities. In contrast, the increased availability of moisture after ∼470 AD does appear to have contributed to the expansion of rural settlement and agriculture into environmentally marginal terrain, including semi-arid areas such as the Negev. In this way climate probably contributed to the general economic prosperity of the late Roman Empire in the east of the Mediterranean basin. The end of this late Roman world system came about finally in mid-7th c. and, at least in Anatolia, is not directly associated with any shift in climatic conditions. Aridity during early Medieval times may be one of the main factors behind the gradual long-term decline of settlement on the marginal lands in the Levant following Islamic conquest.

Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

2016-02-01

Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

Glacial-Interglacial, Orbital and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability for the Last Glacial Cycle at Shackleton Site U1385 based on Dinoflagellate Cysts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datema, M.

2015-12-01

The Shackleton Site (IODP Expedition 339 Site U1385), located off the West-Portuguese Margin, preserves a continuous high-fidelity record of millennial-scale climate variability for the last several glacial cycles (~1.4 Myr) that can be correlated precisely to patterns observed in polar ice cores. In addition, rapid delivery of terrestrial material to the deep-sea environment allows the correlation of these marine records to European terrestrial climate records. This unique marine-ice-terrestrial linkage makes the Shackleton Site the ideal reference section for studying Quaternary abrupt climate change. The main objective of studying Site U1385 is to establish a marine reference section of Pleistocene climate change. We generated (sub)millennial-scale (~600 year interval) dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage records from Shackleton Site U1385 (IODP Expedition 339) to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity/upwelling over the last 152 kyrs. In addition, our approach allows for detailed land-sea correlations, because we also counted assemblages of pollen and spores from higher plants. Dinocyst SST and upwelling proxies, as well as warm/cold pollen proxies from Site U1385 show glacial-interglacial, orbital and stadial-interstadial climate variability and correlate very well to Uk'37, planktic foraminifer δ18O and Ca/Ti proxies of previously drilled Shackleton Sites and Greenland Ice Core δ18O. The palynological proxies capture (almost) all Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last glacial cycle, also before ~70 ka, where millennial-scale variability is overprinted by precession. We compare the performance and results of the palynology of Site U1385 to proxies of previously drilled Shackleton Sites and conclude that palynology strengthens the potential of this site to form a multi-proxy reference section for millennial scale climate variability across the Pleistocene-Holocene. Finally, we will present a long-term paleoceanographic perspective down to ~150 ka.

The Indonesian Throughflow: Oceanographic responses to Holocene changes in the mean Pacific state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobel, A. W.; Oppo, D.; Eglinton, T. I.; Gibbons, F. T.; Montlucon, D.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2009-12-01

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which transfers upper ocean waters from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, plays an essential role in global ocean circulation and tropical climate regulation. The flow and mixing regimes of the ITF are affected by changes in temperature, winds and upwelling caused by the Asian Monsoon/Intertropical Convergence Zone (AM/ITCZ) and interannual variations in El Niño (EN). Because the ITF is located in the Western Pacific Warm Pool, an area from which the atmosphere derives a large portion of its heat and water budget, changes in the ITF have the potential to perturb atmospheric circulation globally. Despite the importance of this region to global climate, changes in the ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon affecting the ITF are still poorly understood. Our study used organic geochemical proxies for upwelling in the Makassar Strait to investigate Holocene oceanographic changes in the ITF in response to EN and the AM/ITCZ. A core-top biomarker survey was performed on multi-core samples from the Makassar Strait and surrounding areas. Concentrations of cholesterol (an indicator of integrated primary productivity) were determined by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry and were then compared with maps of regional July-August SST and determined to accurately reflect regional upwelling. Based on the findings of the core-top survey, a down-core biomarker record was generated from core BJ8-03-70 GGC taken from the West Sulawesi Margin in the Eastern Makassar Strait, an area that experiences seasonal upwelling associated with the boreal summer Asian monsoon. Cholesterol data show a trend towards increasing concentrations (upwelling or thermocline shoaling) in the late Holocene with a considerable increase approximately 6,000 years before present. Additionally, upwelling intensity appears to show more centennial-millennial variability during the late Holocene. Evidence that the summer monsoon has decreased in strength over the course of the Holocene (e.g. Wang et al., 2005) suggests that the increase in cholesterol is not a response to an increase in monsoon-driven upwelling. Because a shallower thermocline is associated with weak trade winds (El Niño-like conditions in the modern ocean), we interpret these results to represent a mid Holocene transition to a more El Niño-like mean Pacific state. This interpretation is consistent with previous evidence (Moy et al., 2002 and Conroy et al., 2008, yet the timing and reason for this transition is not well constrained. Further work should seek to develop a higher-resolution, multi-proxy dataset to explore and explain this change.

Late glacial to Holocene water level and climate changes in the Gulf of Gemlik, Sea of Marmara: evidence from multi-proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filikci, Betül; Eriş, Kürşad Kadir; Çağatay, Namık; Sabuncu, Asen; Polonia, Alina

2017-10-01

Multi-proxy analyses of new piston core M13-08 together with seismic data from the Gulf of Gemlik provide a detailed record of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes with special emphasis on the timing of the connections between the Sea of Marmara (SoM) and the Gulf of Gemlik during the late Pleistocene to Holocene. The deposition of a subaqueous delta sourced from the Armutlu River to the north is attributed to the lowstand lake level at -60 m in the gulf prior to 13.5 cal ka BP. On the basis of the seismic data, it is argued that the higher lake level (-60 m) in the gulf compared to the SoM level (-85 m) attests to its disconnection from the SoM during the late glacial period. Ponto-Caspian assemblages in the lacustrine sedimentary unit covering the time period between 13.5 and 12 cal ka BP represent a relict that was introduced into the gulf by a Black Sea outflow during the marine isotope stage 3 interstadial. Contrary to the findings of previous studies, the data suggest that such an outflow into the Gulf of Gemlik during the late glacial period could have occurred only if the SoM lake level (-85 m) was shallower than the sill depth (-55 m) of the gulf in the west. A robust age model of the core indicates the connection of the gulf with the marine SoM at 12 cal ka BP, consistent with the sill depth (-55 m) of the gulf on the global sea level curve. Strong evidence of a marine incursion into the gulf is well documented by the μ-XRF Sr/Ca data. The available profiles of elemental ratios in core M13-08, together with the age-depth model, imply that a warm and wet climate prevailed in the gulf during the early Holocene (12-10.1 cal ka BP), whereas the longest drought occurred during the middle Holocene (8.2-5.4 cal ka BP). The base of the main Holocene sapropel in the gulf is dated at 10.1 cal ka BP, i.e., 500 years younger than its equivalent in the SoM. The late Holocene is earmarked by warm and wet climate periods (5.0-4.2 and 4.2-2.7 cal ka BP) with some brief cold/dry periods (4.2 and 2.7-0.9 cal ka BP).

Multicentury Reconstruction of Precipitations (1300-2014) in Eastern Canada from Tree-Ring Width and Carbon and Oxygen Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giguère, Claudie; Boucher, Étienne; Bergeron, Yves

2016-04-01

Tree ring series enabling long hydroclimatic reconstructions are scarce in Northeastern America, mostly because most boreal species are rather thermo-dependant. Here we propose a new multi-proxy analysis (tree-ring, δ13C and δ18O) from one of the oldest Thuja occidentalis population in NE America (lake Duparquet, Quebec). These rare precipitation-sensitive, long-living trees (> 800 years) grow on xeric rocky shores and their potential for paleo-hydroclimatic reconstructions (based on ring widths solely) was previously assessed. The objectives of this study are twofold i) to strengthen the hydroclimatic signal of this long tree-ring chronology by adding analysis of stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ18O) and ii) to reconstruct summer precipitation back to 1300 AD, which will represent, by far, the longest high-resolution hydroclimatic reconstruction in this region. A tree-ring chronology was constructed from 61 trees sampled in standing position. Eleven trees were also sampled to produce pooled carbon and oxygen isotope chronologies (annually resolved) with a replication of five to six trees per year. Signal analysis (correlation between climatic data and proxy values) confirms that growth is positively influenced by spring precipitations (May-June), while δ13C is negatively correlated to summer precipitation (June to August) and positively to June temperature. Adding δ18O analysis will strengthen the signal even more, since wood cellulose should be enriched in δ18O when high evapotranspiration conditions prevail. Based on a multi-proxy approach, a summer precipitation reconstruction was developed and compared to other temperature reconstructions from this region as well as to southernmost hydroclimatic reconstructions (e.g. Cook et al). A preliminary analysis of external and internal forcing is proposed in conclusion.

Evidence of coupled carbon and iron cycling at a hydrocarbon-contaminated site from time lapse magnetic susceptibility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lund, Anders L.; Slater, Lee D.; Atekwana, Estella A.; Ntarlagiannis, Dimitrios; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.; Bekins, Barbara A.

2017-01-01

Conventional characterization and monitoring of hydrocarbon (HC) pollution is often expensive and time-consuming. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) has been proposed as an inexpensive, long-term monitoring proxy of the degradation of HC. We acquired repeated down hole MS logging data in boreholes at a HC-contaminated field research site in Bemidji, MN, USA. The MS data were analyzed in conjunction with redox conditions and iron availability within the source zone to better assess whether MS can serve as a proxy for monitoring HC contamination in unconsolidated sediments. The MS response at the site diminished during the sampling period, which was found to coincide with depletion of solid phase iron in the source zone. Previous geochemical observations and modeling at the site suggest that the most likely cause of the decrease in MS is the transformation of magnetite to siderite, coupled with the exhaustion of ferrihydrite. Although the temporal MS response at this site gives valuable field-scale evidence for changing conditions of iron cycling and stability of iron minerals it does not provide a simple proxy for long-term monitoring of biodegradation of hydrocarbons in the smear zone.

Multi-proxy reconstructions of hydrologic change during the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the North American Interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eley, Y.; Hren, M. T.

2016-12-01

The dramatic shift from a 'greenhouse' to an 'icehouse' world that occurred during the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT, 34-33.5 Ma) is associated with changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, extinction events in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the establishment of a continental-scale ice sheet on Antarctica. Terrestrial records of the EOT, however, show limited consensus regarding the intensity and impact of this transition, complicating our understanding of how terrestrial hydrology responds to climatic change of this magnitude. Stable isotopes of fossil bones and teeth from the White River Group (WRG) in Nebraska have been interpreted to show an 8 °C decrease in mean annual temperatures across the EOT, with an increase in seasonality, however these studies find no evidence for accompanying changes in aridity. Conversely, other studies have inferred increased aridity in the early Oligocene based on changes in the δ18O and δ13C values of mammalian tooth enamel sampled from the same location. Some of this ambiguity is likely to stem from the difficulty in separating the influence of factors such as temperature, water availability and atmospheric circulation patterns on the δ18O composition of ungulate tooth enamel. We present paired leaf wax biomarker and clay hydrogen isotope data from the WRG to produce a new multi-proxy record of hydrological change and accompanying ecosystem shifts through the EOT in the North American interior. Hydrogen isotopes of clay minerals show a negative shift of <15‰ from the late Eocene through early Oligocene, while in contrast leaf wax n-alkanes record a negative shift in excess of 50‰, in tandem with a positive change in average chain length. We infer an increase in aridity from these data, with an associated potential shift in vegetation cover towards more savannah-style plant species as the climate became drier during the transition into the Oligocene. These data provide new constraints on the impact of the EOT in North America, and highlight the potential role of increasing aridity, in addition to declining temperatures, in shaping the hydrology of the region during this interval.

Vegetation history and paleoclimate at Lake Dojran (FYROM/Greece) during the Late Glacial and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masi, Alessia; Francke, Alexander; Pepe, Caterina; Thienemann, Matthias; Wagner, Bernd; Sadori, Laura

2018-03-01

A new high-resolution pollen and NPP (non-pollen palynomorph) analysis has been performed on the sediments of Lake Dojran, a transboundary lake located at the border between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The sequence covers the last 12 500 years and provides information on the vegetational dynamics of the Late Glacial and Holocene for the southern Balkans. Robust age model, sedimentological diatom, and biomarker analyses published previously have been the base for a multi-perspective interpretation of the new palynological data. Pollen analysis revealed that the Late Glacial is characterized by steppic taxa with prevailing Amaranthaceae, Artemisia and Poaceae. The arboreal vegetation starts to rise after 11 500 yr BP, taking a couple of millennia to be definitively attested. Holocene vegetation is characterized by the dominance of mesophilous plants. The Quercus robur type and Pinus are the most abundant taxa, followed by the Quercus cerris type, the Quercus ilex type and Ostrya-Carpinus orientalis. The first attestation of human presence can be presumed at 5000 yr BP from the contemporary presence of cereals, Juglans and Rumex. A drop in both pollen concentration and influx together with a δ18Ocarb shift indicates increasing aridity and precedes clear and continuous human signs since 4000 yr BP. Also, a correlation between Pediastrum boryanum and fecal stanol suggests that the increase in nutrients in the water is related to human presence and pasture. An undoubted expansion of human-related plants occurs since 2600 yr BP when cereals, arboreal cultivated and other synanthropic non-cultivated taxa are found. A strong reduction in arboreal vegetation occurred at 2000 yr BP, when the Roman Empire impacted a landscape undergoing climate dryness in the whole Mediterranean area. In recent centuries the human impact still remains high but spots of natural vegetation are preserved. The Lake Dojran multi-proxy analysis including pollen data provides clear evidence of the importance of this approach in paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cross-interpretation of several proxies allows us to comprehend past vegetation dynamics and human impact in the southern Balkans.

Multi-proxy evidence for decreased terrestrial contribution to sedimentary organic matter in coastal areas of the East China Sea during the past 100years.

PubMed

Cao, Yunyun; Xing, Lei; Zhang, Ting; Liao, Wen-Hsuan

2017-12-01

Little is known about temporal changes in sedimentary organic matter (OM) in the East China Sea (ECS) due to the lack of continuous high-resolution records. In this study, we used a multi-proxy approach to reconstruct sedimentary OM variations over the past 100years from three sediment cores collected from the coastal areas of the ECS. For the three cores, total organic carbon (TOC) normalized concentrations of phytoplankton biomarkers (brassicasterol+dinosterol+alkenones) and a marine archaea biomarker (crenarchaeol) showed gradual increases over the past 100years with a greater increase after the 1980s. These increases are attributed to eutrophic conditions caused by monsoonal variation and intensified human activities in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) over the past century. Conversely, TOC-normalized concentrations of higher plant biomarker long-chain n-alkanes (∑(C 27 +C 29 +C 31 n-alkanes)) showed no obvious trend over the past 100years. The δ 13 C values of TOC (δ 13 C TOC ), the terrestrial and marine biomarker ratio (TMBR) index, and the branched and isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index for the three cores record a gradual decrease in the contribution of terrestrial organic matter (TOM) since the 1960s. This decrease is likely linked to enhanced dam construction in the YRB from the 1960s onwards, leading to a reduction in TOM input to the ECS. A three end-member mixing model based on δ 13 C TOC values and the TMBR index was used to further divide sedimentary OM into three factions: marine organic matter (MOM), plant OM, and soil OM. The MOM contribution gradually increased over the past 100years, while the contribution of soil OM gradually decreased over the past 100years with a significant decline during the past 50years. This trend can also be related to intensify dam construction in the middle and upper reaches of the YR since the 1960s. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atlantic forcing of Western Mediterranean winter rain minima during the last 12,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielhofer, Christoph; Fletcher, William J.; Mischke, Steffen; De Batist, Marc; Campbell, Jennifer F. E.; Joannin, Sebastien; Tjallingii, Rik; El Hamouti, Najib; Junginger, Annett; Stele, Andreas; Bussmann, Jens; Schneider, Birgit; Lauer, Tobias; Spitzer, Katrin; Strupler, Michael; Brachert, Thomas; Mikdad, Abdeslam

2017-02-01

The limited availability of high-resolution continuous archives, insufficient chronological control, and complex hydro-climatic forcing mechanisms lead to many uncertainties in palaeo-hydrological reconstructions for the Western Mediterranean. In this study we present a newly recovered 19.63 m long core from Lake Sidi Ali in the North African Middle Atlas, a transition zone of Atlantic, Western Mediterranean and Saharan air mass trajectories. With a multi-proxy approach based on magnetic susceptibility, carbonate and total organic C content, core-scanning and quantitative XRF, stable isotopes of ostracod shells, charcoal counts, Cedrus pollen abundance, and a first set of diatom data, we reconstruct Western Mediterranean hydro-climatic variability, seasonality and forcing mechanisms during the last 12,000 yr. A robust chronological model based on AMS 14C dated pollen concentrates supports our high-resolution multi-proxy study. Long-term trends reveal low lake levels at the end of the Younger Dryas, during the mid-Holocene interval 6.6 to 5.4 cal ka BP, and during the last 3000 years. In contrast, lake levels are mostly high during the Early and Mid-Holocene. The record also shows sub-millennial- to centennial-scale decreases in Western Mediterranean winter rain at 11.4, 10.3, 9.2, 8.2, 7.2, 6.6, 6.0, 5.4, 5.0, 4.4, 3.5, 2.9, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 0.7, and 0.2 cal ka BP. Early Holocene winter rain minima are in phase with cooling events and millennial-scale meltwater discharges in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Our proxy parameters do not show so far a clear impact of Saharan air masses on Mediterranean hydro-climate in North Africa. However, a significant hydro-climatic shift at the end of the African Humid Period (∼5 ka) indicates a change in climate forcing mechanisms. The Late Holocene climate variability in the Middle Atlas features a multi-centennial-scale NAO-type pattern, with Atlantic cooling and Western Mediterranean winter rain maxima generally associated with solar minima.

Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dätwyler, Christoph; Neukom, Raphael; Abram, Nerilie J.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Grosjean, Martin; Jacques-Coper, Martín; Karoly, David J.; Villalba, Ricardo

2017-11-01

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-tropics. Here, we assess the stationarity of SAM spatial correlations with instrumental and paleoclimate proxy data for the past millennium. The instrumental period shows that temporal non-stationarities in SAM teleconnections are not consistent across the SH land areas. This suggests that the influence of the SAM index is modulated by regional effects. However, within key-regions with good proxy data coverage (South America, Tasmania, New Zealand), teleconnections are mostly stationary over the instrumental period. Using different stationarity criteria for proxy record selection, we provide new austral summer and annual mean SAM index reconstructions over the last millennium. Our summer SAM reconstructions are very robust to changes in proxy record selection and the selection of the calibration period, particularly on the multi-decadal timescale. In contrast, the weaker performance and lower agreement in the annual mean SAM reconstructions point towards changing teleconnection patterns that may be particularly important outside the summer months. Our results clearly portend that the temporal stationarity of the proxy-climate relationships should be taken into account in the design of comprehensive regional and hemispherical climate reconstructions. The summer SAM reconstructions show no significant relationship to solar, greenhouse gas and volcanic forcing, with the exception of an extremely strong negative anomaly following the AD 1257 Samalas eruption. Furthermore, reconstructed pre-industrial summer SAM trends are very similar to trends obtained by model control simulations. We find that recent trends in the summer SAM lie outside the 5-95% range of pre-industrial natural variability.

Lake deposits record evidence of large post-1505 AD earthquakes in western Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazoui, Z.; Bertrand, S.; Vanneste, K.; Yokoyama, Y.; Van Der Beek, P.; Nomade, J.; Gajurel, A.

2016-12-01

According to historical records, the last large earthquake that ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) in western Nepal occurred in 1505 AD. Since then, no evidence of other large earthquakes has been found in historical records or geological archives. In view of the catastrophic consequences to millions of inhabitants of Nepal and northern India, intense efforts currently focus on improving our understanding of past earthquake activity and complement the historical data on Himalayan earthquakes. Here we report a new record, based on earthquake-triggered turbidites in lakes. We use lake sediment records from Lake Rara, western Nepal, to reconstruct the occurrence of seismic events. The sediment cores were studied using a multi-proxy approach combining radiocarbon and 210Pb chronologies, physical properties (X-ray computerized axial tomography scan, Geotek multi-sensor core logger), high-resolution grain size, inorganic geochemistry (major elements by ITRAX XRF core scanning) and bulk organic geochemistry (C, N concentrations and stable isotopes). We identified several sequences of dense and layered fine sand mainly composed of mica, which we interpret as earthquake-triggered turbidites. Our results suggest the presence of a synchronous event between the two lake sites correlated with the well-known 1505 AD earthquake. In addition, our sediment records reveal five earthquake-triggered turbidites younger than the 1505 AD event. By comparison with historical archives, we relate one of those to the 1833 AD MFT rupture. The others may reflect successive ruptures of the Western Nepal Fault System. Our study sheds light on events that have not been recorded in historical chronicles. Those five MMI>7 earthquakes permit addressing the problem of missing slip on the MFT in western Nepal and reevaluating the risk of a large earthquake affecting western Nepal and North India.

Evaluation of the Intermittent Exotropia Questionnaire using Rasch analysis.

PubMed

Leske, David A; Holmes, Jonathan M; Melia, B Michele

2015-04-01

The Intermittent Exotropia Questionnaire (IXTQ) is a patient, proxy, and parental report of quality of life specific to children with intermittent exotropia. We refine the IXTQ using Rasch analysis to improve reliability and validity. Rasch analysis was performed on responses of 575 patients with intermittent exotropia enrolled from May 15, 2008, through July 24, 2013, and their parents from each of the 4 IXTQ health-related quality-of-life questionnaires (child 5 through 7 years of age and child 8 through 17 years of age, proxy, and parent questionnaires). Questionnaire performance and structure were confirmed in a separate cohort of 379 patients with intermittent exotropia. One item was removed from the 12-item child and proxy questionnaires, and response options in the 8- to 17-year-old child IXTQ and proxy IXTQ were combined into 3 response options for both questionnaires. Targeting was relatively poor for the child and proxy questionnaires. For the parent questionnaire, 3 subscales (psychosocial, function, and surgery) were evident. One item was removed from the psychosocial subscale. Resulting subscales had appropriate targeting. The Rasch-revised IXTQ may be a useful instrument for determining how intermittent exotropia affects health-related quality of life of children with intermittent exotropia and their parents, particularly for cohort studies.

The validity of proxy-based data on loneliness in suicide research: a case-control psychological autopsy study in rural China.

PubMed

Niu, Lu; Jia, Cunxian; Ma, Zhenyu; Wang, Guojun; Yu, Zhenjun; Zhou, Liang

2018-05-01

There is a lack of evidence for the role of loneliness on suicide using psychological autopsy method, and the validity of proxy informants' reports on loneliness is not well established. This study aimed to investigate the validity of proxy respondent reports on loneliness, and the reliability and validity of the University of California Los Angeles Loneliness Scale-6 (ULS-6) as used in psychological autopsy method with rural elderly people in China. Two hundred forty-two suicide cases and 242 normal community controls were selected, and the psychological autopsy method was utilized to collect information. Data from proxy respondents of the living controls were compared with data reported by the targets (gold standards). Subject-proxy concordance for ULS-6 was fair (ICC = 0.447) in the living controls. The suicide cases were more likely to have a higher score of ULS-6 than the living controls. Additionally, our data supported that ULS-6 had adequate psychometric properties in both suicide and control groups: factor analyses yielded one-factor component solution; Cronbach's alpha (both > 0.90) demonstrated excellent internal consistency; the Spearman correlation analysis indicated that the ULS-6 score was positively correlated with depression; and negatively correlated with QOL and social support. Results support proxy-based data on loneliness in research of suicide in older adults in rural China, and the ULS-6 is a psychometrically sound instrument for measuring loneliness in psychological autopsy studies.

A multi-proxy intercomparison of environmental change in two maar lake records from central Turkey during the last 14 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. Neil; Allcock, Samantha L.; Arnaud, Fabien; Dean, Jonathan R.; Eastwood, Warren J.; Jones, Matthew D.; Leng, Melanie J.; Metcalfe, Sarah E.; Malet, Emmanuel; Woodbridge, Jessie; Yiǧitbaşıoǧlu, Hakan

2016-04-01

Individual palaeoenvironmental records are a combination of regional-scale (e.g. climatic) and local factors. In order to separate these signals, we compare multiple proxies from two nearby maar lake records, on the assumption that common signals are due to regional-scale forcing. On the other side, we infer that residual signals are likely to be local and site-specific, rather than reflecting regional climate changes. A new core sequence from Nar lake has been dated by varve counting and U-Th as covering the last 13,800 years (Dean et al., 2015; Roberts et al., 2016). Periods of marked dryness are associated with peaks in Mg/dolomite, elevated Diatom-Inferred Electrical Conductivity, an absence of laminated sediments, and low Quercus/chenopod ratios. These conditions occurred during the Late-Glacial stadial, at 4.3-3.7 and 3.2-2.6 ka BP. Wet phases occurred during the early Holocene and again 1.5-0.6 ka, characterised by negative δ18O values, calcite precipitation, high Ca/Sr ratios, a high % of planktonic diatoms, laminated sediments, and high Quercus/chenopod ratios. Comparison with the independently dated record from Eski Acıgöl (Roberts et al., 2001) shows good correspondence for many proxies, especially for δ18O. A ranking of multiple proxies shows the worst correspondence is for clastic lithogenic elements (e.g. Ti flux). Differences between the two lake records are caused by basin infilling at Eski Acıgöl, which fails to register climatic changes during the last 2 ka, and to catchment erosion and increased flux of lithogenic elements into Nar lake; this is catchment-specific and primarily anthropogenic rather than climatic in origin. In separating a regional signal from site-specific "noise", two lakes may therefore be better than one. Dean, J.R. et al. 2015 Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate over the late glacial and Holocene, reconstructed from the sediments of Nar lake, central Turkey, using stable isotopes and carbonate mineralogy. Quaternary Science Reviews 124, 162-174. Roberts, N et al. 2001 The tempo of Holocene climatic change in the eastern Mediterranean region: new high-resolution crater-lake sediment data from central Turkey. The Holocene 11, 721-736. Roberts, N., et al 2016 in press, A tale of two lakes: a multi-proxy comparison of Late Glacial and Holocene environmental change in Cappadocia, Turkey. Journal of Quaternary Science

Widespread Ice across the South Weddell Sea Region prior to the Late Eocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, A.; Riley, T. R.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Rittner, M.

2016-12-01

The extent of ice sheets across East Antarctica, and Antarctica in general during the high CO2 world of the late Eocene is not well understood due to a paucity of direct evidence. Examination of late Eocene-Oligocene marine sands from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 113 Site 696 located on the southeastern margin of the South Orkney Microcontinent (SOM) has revealed abundant sand grains with mechanical features diagnostic of iceberg-rafted debris (IBRD). Using a multi-proxy approach that included petrographic analysis of over 250,000 grains, detrital zircon geochronology and apatite thermochronometry we found that the IBRD sources ranged from the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains of West Antarctica to the coastal region of Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica. This evidence requires that glaciers quite possibly draining mountainous regions calved at sea level across the southern Weddell Sea coast at least 2.5 million years before the oxygen isotope event Oi-1 (34-33.5 Ma), a time when atmospheric CO2 was declining. Icebergs from East Antarctic sources were transported to the SOM by the Antarctic Coastal Current and thereby mixed with icebergs from West Antarctic sources in the cyclonic Weddell Gyre, which then transported the icebergs northwards towards the Scotia Sea.

Direct observation of sequential oxidations of a titania-bound molecular proxy catalyst generated through illumination of molecular sensitizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsiang-Yun; Ardo, Shane

2018-01-01

Natural photosynthesis uses the energy in sunlight to oxidize or reduce reaction centres multiple times, therefore preparing each reaction centre for a multiple-electron-transfer reaction that will ultimately generate stable reaction products. This process relies on multiple chromophores per reaction centre to quickly generate the active state of the reaction centre and to outcompete deleterious charge recombination. Using a similar design principle, we report spectroscopic evidence for the generation of a twice-oxidized TiO2-bound molecular proxy catalyst after low-intensity visible-light excitation of co-anchored molecular Ru(II)-polypyridyl dyes. Electron transfer from an excited dye to TiO2 generated a Ru(III) state that subsequently and repeatedly reacted with neighbouring Ru(II) dyes via self-exchange electron transfer to ultimately oxidize a distant co-anchored proxy catalyst before charge recombination. The largest yield for twice-oxidized proxy catalysts occurred when they were present at low coverage, suggesting that large dye/electrocatalyst ratios are also desired in dye-sensitized photoelectrochemical cells.

A multi-proxy record of Holocene hydroclimate change from a windward montane wetland, Molokai, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beilman, D. W.; Kallstrom, R.; Elison Timm, O.; Nichols, J. E.; Massa, C.

2016-12-01

A core raised from a windward mountain bog on the Island of Molokai, Hawaii was studied to reconstruct changes in hydroclimate and ecosystem response. The 250-cm radiocarbon-dated profile shows that formation of peat (organic matter greater than 90% and bulk density below 0.2 g cm-3) began around 10,000 years ago, in response to wetter conditions needed to waterlog and stabilize soil organic matter, and has continued through the Holocene. A previously-published pollen record from this site has no chronological information, but suggests that the dominant forest species have been present throughout but varied substantially in their relative abundance over Holocene time. The stable carbon isotope value of organic matter (δ13COM) showed a pattern of increasingly more-positive values from 10,000 to 8000 years ago, consistent with decreased stomatal conductance in woody vegetation and an early Holocene drying trend. An overall Holocene decrease in rainfall over the Pacific near Hawaii is also observed in transient model simulations forced by insolation, greenhouse gases and ice. Between 4000 and 2000 years ago, more-negative δ13COM values and a maximum in organic carbon accumulation suggest a period of somewhat wetter climate that seems to have ended around 2,000 years ago. The distribution and abundance of leaf wax compounds including alkyl lipids in the profile suggests a lower relative abundance of woody species 8000 to 3000 years ago and a shift towards more woody inputs preceding the arrival of humans. Taken together, evidence from this windward location shows an overall decrease in rainfall during the Holocene in general agreement with other Hawaii proxy data and model simulations. But these new data also show important millennial-scale changes in hydroclimate and ecosystem responses. Comparison to proxy records at leeward Hawaii locations revealed an onset of peat formation at around the same time at a similar elevation in the early Holocene, but both similarities and differences in hydroclimate trends, and overall complex pattern relative to reconstructions of Holocene El Nino variation, suggesting influence of both tropical and extratropical Pacific circulation.

Refining our estimate of atmospheric CO2 across the Eocene-Oligocene climatic transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heureux, Ana M. C.; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.

2015-01-01

The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) followed by Oligocene isotope event 1 (Oi-1) is a dramatic global switch in climate characterized by deep-sea cooling and the first formation of permanent Antarctic ice. Models and proxy evidence suggest that declining partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2atm) below a threshold may explain the onset of global cooling and associated ice formation at Oi-1. However, significant uncertainty remains in the estimated values and salient features of reconstructed CO2atm across this interval. In this study, we present novel carbon isotope records from size separated diatom associated organic matter (δ13Cdiatom) preserved in silica frustules. Physical preservation of this material allows concurrent investigation of isotopic and cell size information, providing two input parameters for biogeochemical models and the reconstruction of CO2atm. We estimate CO2atm in two ways; first we use size and reaction-diffusion kinetics of a cell to calculate a CO2atm threshold. Second we use the calibrated relationship between ɛp(diatom) and carbon dioxide from culture and field studies to create a record of CO2atm prior to and across the transition. Our study, from site 1090 in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, shows CO2atm values fluctuating between 900 and 1700 ± 100 p.p.m.v. across the EOT followed by a drop to values in the order of 700 to 800 ± 100 p.p.m.v. just prior to the onset of Oi-1. Our values and magnitude of CO2atm change differ from previous estimates, but confirm the overall trends inferred from boron isotopes and alkenones, including a marked rebound following Oi-1. Due to the intricate nature of the climate system and complexities in constraining paleo-proxies, this work emphasizes the importance of a multi-proxy approach to estimating of CO2atm in order to elucidate its role in the emplacement of Antarctic ice-sheets at the EOT.

Lake ecosystem response to rapid lateglacial climate changes in lake sediments from northern Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Słowiński, Michał; Zawiska, Izabela; Ott, Florian; Noryśkiewicz, Agnieszka M.; Apolinarska, Karina; Lutyńska, Monika; Michczyńska, Danuta J.; Brauer, Achim; Wulf, Sabine; Skubała, Piotr; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław

2013-04-01

During the Late Glacial Period environment changes were triggered by climatic oscillations which in turn controlled processes like, for example, permafrost thawing, vegetation development and ground water circulation. These environmental changes are ideally recorded in lake sediments and thus can be reconstructed applying a multi-poxy approach. Here, we present the results from the Trzechowskie paleolake, located in the northern Polish lowlands (eastern part of the Pomeranian Lakeland). The site is situated on the outwash plain of the Wda River, which was formed during the Pomeranian phase of the Vistulian glaciation ca 16,000 14C yrs BP. The depression of the Trzechowskie lake basin formed after melting of a buried ice block during the Allerød (13903±170 cal yrs BP). We reconstructed environmental changes in the Trzechowskie paleolake and its catchment using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, cladocera, diatoms, oribatidae mite) and geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition (LOI), CaCO3 content). In addition, we carried out µ-XRF element core scanning. The chronology has been established by means of biostratigraphyAMS14C dating on plant macro remains, varve counting in laminated intervals and the late Allerød Laacher See Tephra isochrone. Our results showed that biogenic accumulation in the lake started during the Bølling. Development of coniferous forest during the Allerød with dominance of Pinus sylvestris lead to leaching of carbonates in the catchment due to low pH increasing the flux of Ca ions into the lake. In consequence calcite precipitating in the lake increased as evidences by increasing CaCO3 contents. Both biotic and physical proxies clearly reflect the rapid decrease in productivity at the onset of the Younger Dryas. We compare the data from the Trzechowskie paleolake with the Meerfelder Maar and Rehwiese lake records based on tephrochronological synchronization using the Laacher See Tephra. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute ICLEA (Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis) funded by the Helmholtz Association.

The Mekong at climatic crossroads: Lessons from the geological past.

PubMed

Penny, Dan

2008-05-01

The wetlands of the lower Mekong River Basin are ecologically and socioeconomically significant, but they are threatened by predicted climatic change. The likely response of wetland ecosystems to altered flooding regimes and surface-water chemistry is unknown in detail and difficult to model. One way of exploring the impact of climate change on wetland ecosystems is to utilize proxy environmental data that reveal patterns of change over geological time. In recent years, the coverage and resolution of proxy climatic data have improved markedly in the region. Recent evidence of the South China Sea transgression into southern and central Cambodia and paleobotanical evidence from the Tonle Sap ("Great Lake") and elsewhere allow us to explore how periods of higher-than-present sea level and increased monsoon rainfall in the past have impacted the wetland ecology of the lower Mekong River Basin.

The halo boundary of galaxy clusters in the SDSS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baxter, Eric; Chang, Chihway; Jain, Bhuvnesh

Analytical models and simulations predict a rapid decline in the halo density profile associated with the transition from the "infalling" regime outside the halo to the "collapsed" regime within the halo. Using data from SDSS, we explore evidence for such a feature in the density profiles of galaxy clusters using several different approaches. We first estimate the steepening of the outer galaxy density profile around clusters, finding evidence for truncation of the halo profile. Next, we measure the galaxy density profile around clusters using two sets of galaxies selected on color. We find evidence of an abrupt change in galaxymore » colors that coincides with the location of the steepening of the density profile. Since galaxies that have completed orbits within the cluster are more likely to be quenched of star formation and thus appear redder, this abrupt change in galaxy color can be associated with the transition from single-stream to multi-stream regimes. We also use a standard model comparison approach to measure evidence for a "splashback"-like feature, but find that this approach is very sensitive to modeling assumptions. Finally, we perform measurements using an independent cluster catalog to test for potential systematic errors associated with cluster selection. We identify several avenues for future work: improved understanding of the small-scale galaxy profile, lensing measurements, identification of proxies for the halo accretion rate, and other tests. As a result, with upcoming data from the DES, KiDS, and HSC surveys, we can expect significant improvements in the study of halo boundaries.« less

The Halo Boundary of Galaxy Clusters in the SDSS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baxter, Eric; Jain, Bhuvnesh; Sheth, Ravi K.

Analytical models and simulations predict a rapid decline in the halo density profile associated with the transition from the “infalling” regime outside the halo to the “collapsed” regime within the halo. Using data from SDSS, we explore evidence for such a feature in the density profiles of galaxy clusters using several different approaches. We first estimate the steepening of the outer galaxy density profile around clusters, finding evidence for truncation of the halo profile. Next, we measure the galaxy density profile around clusters using two sets of galaxies selected on color. We find evidence of an abrupt change in galaxymore » colors that coincides with the location of the steepening of the density profile. Since galaxies that have completed orbits within the cluster are more likely to be quenched of star formation and thus appear redder, this abrupt change in galaxy color can be associated with the transition from single-stream to multi-stream regimes. We also use a standard model comparison approach to measure evidence for a “splashback”-like feature, but find that this approach is very sensitive to modeling assumptions. Finally, we perform measurements using an independent cluster catalog to test for potential systematic errors associated with cluster selection. We identify several avenues for future work: improved understanding of the small-scale galaxy profile, lensing measurements, identification of proxies for the halo accretion rate, and other tests. With upcoming data from the DES, KiDS, and HSC surveys, we can expect significant improvements in the study of halo boundaries.« less

Fuzzification of continuous-value spatial evidence for mineral prospectivity mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefi, Mahyar; Carranza, Emmanuel John M.

2015-01-01

Complexities of geological processes portrayed as certain feature in a map (e.g., faults) are natural sources of uncertainties in decision-making for exploration of mineral deposits. Besides natural sources of uncertainties, knowledge-driven (e.g., fuzzy logic) mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) is also plagued and incurs further uncertainty in subjective judgment of analyst when there is no reliable proven value of evidential scores corresponding to relative importance of geological features that can directly be measured. In this regard, analysts apply expert opinion to assess relative importance of spatial evidences as meaningful decision support. This paper aims for fuzzification of continuous spatial data used as proxy evidence to facilitate and to support fuzzy MPM to generate exploration target areas for further examination of undiscovered deposits. In addition, this paper proposes to adapt the concept of expected value to further improve fuzzy logic MPM because the analysis of uncertain variables can be presented in terms of their expected value. The proposed modified expected value approach to MPM is not only a multi-criteria approach but it also treats uncertainty of geological processes a depicted by maps or spatial data in term of biased weighting more realistically in comparison with classified evidential maps because fuzzy membership scores are defined continuously whereby, for example, there is no need to categorize distances from evidential features to proximity classes using arbitrary intervals. The proposed continuous weighting approach and then integrating the weighted evidence layers by using modified expected value function, described in this paper can be used efficiently in either greenfields or brownfields.

The halo boundary of galaxy clusters in the SDSS

DOE PAGES

Baxter, Eric; Chang, Chihway; Jain, Bhuvnesh; ...

2017-05-18

Analytical models and simulations predict a rapid decline in the halo density profile associated with the transition from the "infalling" regime outside the halo to the "collapsed" regime within the halo. Using data from SDSS, we explore evidence for such a feature in the density profiles of galaxy clusters using several different approaches. We first estimate the steepening of the outer galaxy density profile around clusters, finding evidence for truncation of the halo profile. Next, we measure the galaxy density profile around clusters using two sets of galaxies selected on color. We find evidence of an abrupt change in galaxymore » colors that coincides with the location of the steepening of the density profile. Since galaxies that have completed orbits within the cluster are more likely to be quenched of star formation and thus appear redder, this abrupt change in galaxy color can be associated with the transition from single-stream to multi-stream regimes. We also use a standard model comparison approach to measure evidence for a "splashback"-like feature, but find that this approach is very sensitive to modeling assumptions. Finally, we perform measurements using an independent cluster catalog to test for potential systematic errors associated with cluster selection. We identify several avenues for future work: improved understanding of the small-scale galaxy profile, lensing measurements, identification of proxies for the halo accretion rate, and other tests. As a result, with upcoming data from the DES, KiDS, and HSC surveys, we can expect significant improvements in the study of halo boundaries.« less

Multi-scale controls of historical forest-fire regimes: new insights from fire-scar networks

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Peter M. Brown; Calvin Farris; Peter Z. Fule; Donald McKenzie; Thomas W. Swetnam; Alan H. Taylor; Megan L. Van Horne

2011-01-01

Anticipating future forest-fire regimes under changing climate requires that scientists and natural resource managers understand the factors that control fire across space and time. Fire scars—proxy records of fires, formed in the growth rings of long-lived trees—provide an annually accurate window into past low-severity fire regimes. In western North America, networks...

A 2000-yr-long multi-proxy lacustrine record from eastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada reveals first millennium AD cold period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Briner, Jason P.; Axford, Yarrow; Francis, Donna R.; Miller, Gifford H.; Walker, Ian R.

2011-05-01

We generate a multi-proxy sub-centennial-scale reconstruction of environmental change during the past two millennia from Itilliq Lake, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. Our reconstruction arises from a finely subsectioned 210Pb- and 14C-dated surface sediment core and includes measures of organic matter (e.g., chlorophyll a; carbon-nitrogen ratio) and insect (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages. Within the past millennium, the least productive, and by inference coldest, conditions occurred ca. AD 1700-1850, late in the Little Ice Age. The 2000-yr sediment record also reveals an episode of reduced organic matter deposition during the 6th-7th century AD; combined with the few other records comparable in resolution that span this time interval from Baffin Island, we suggest that this cold episode was experienced regionally. A comparable cold climatic episode occurred in Alaska and western Canada at this time, suggesting that the first millennium AD cold climate anomaly may have occurred throughout the Arctic. Dramatic increases in aquatic biological productivity at multiple trophic levels are indicated by increased chlorophyll a concentrations since AD 1800 and chironomid concentrations since AD 1900, both of which have risen to levels unprecedented over the past 2000 yr.

A multi-proxy paleolimnological reconstruction of Holocene climate conditions in the Great Basin, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinemann, Scott A.; Porinchu, David F.; Bloom, Amy M.; Mark, Bryan G.; Box, Jason E.

2009-11-01

A sediment core spanning ˜ 7000 cal yr BP recovered from Stella Lake, a small sub-alpine lake located in Great Basin National Park, Nevada, was analyzed for subfossil chironomids (non-biting midges), diatoms, and organic content (estimated by loss-on-ignition (LOI)). Subfossil chironomid analysis indicates that Stella Lake was characterized by a warm, middle Holocene, followed by a cool "Neoglacial" period, with the last two millennia characterized by a return to warmer conditions. Throughout the majority of the core the Stella Lake diatom-community composition is dominated by small, periphytic taxa which are suggestive of shallow, cool, alkaline, oligotrophic waters with extensive seasonal ice cover. A reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed by applying a midge-based inference model for MJAT (two-component WA-PLS) consisting of 79 lakes and 54 midge taxa ( rjack2 = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). Comparison of the chironomid-inferred temperature record to existing regional paleoclimate reconstructions suggests that the midge-inferred temperatures correspond well to regional patterns. This multi-proxy record provides valuable insight into regional Holocene climate and environmental conditions by providing a quantitative reconstruction of peak Holocene warmth and aquatic ecosystem response to these changes in the Great Basin, a region projected to experience increased aridity and higher temperatures.

Seasonal to multi-decadal trends in apparent optical properties in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, James G.; Nelson, Norman B.; Siegel, David A.

2017-01-01

Multi-decadal, monthly observations of optical and biogeochemical properties, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ), and a proxy for its spectral shape reflect changes in phytoplankton and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) characteristics. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provide an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and decadal time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the magnitude and spectral shape proxy of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to available biological and optical data from the BATS time series program. The time series analyses reveal a 1.01%±0.18% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 443 nm over the upper 75 m of the water column while showing no significant change in selected spectral characteristics over the study period. These and other observations indicate that changes in phytoplankton rather than changes in CDOM abundance are the primary driver for the diffuse attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region. Our findings are inconsistent with previous decadal-scale global ocean water clarity and global satellite ocean color analyses yet are consistent with recent analyses of the BATS time series and highlight the value of long-term consistent observation at ocean time series sites.

Late Quaternary environmental change inferred from phytoliths and other soil-related proxies: Case studies from the central and southern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cordova, C.E.; Johnson, W.C.; Mandel, R.D.; Palmer, M.W.

2011-01-01

This study investigates stable carbon isotopes (??13C), opal phytolith assemblages, burnt phytoliths, microscopic charcoal and Sporormiella spores from modern soils and paleosols in Kansas and Oklahoma. Grass and dicot phytoliths in combination with ??13C are used as proxies for reconstructing the structure of grasslands and woodlands. Burnt grass phytoliths and microscopic charcoal are evaluated as proxies for reconstructing paleofire incidence. Concentrations of the fungal spore Sporormiella are used as a proxy for assessing large herbivore activity. These proxies were tested on various modern grassland communities of the central and southern Great Plains, including areas with bison, cattle, and small herbivores, and areas under different fire frequencies.Opal phytolith assemblages and ??13C values show that before cal 11ka, C3 grasses and woody plants predominated in areas that today are dominated by C4 grasses. The origin of the shortgrass prairie dates back to about cal 10ka. The origin of the tallgrass prairie, however, is not clear as phytolith data show variable assemblages throughout the Holocene (mixed-grass, tallgrass, and tallgrass-woodland mosaic). Different proxies (burnt phytoliths vs. charcoal) reveal different fire frequencies, but it is apparent that microfossil evidence for fire incidence is closely related to the abundance of woody plants in the landscape.Before cal 12. ka, soils show somewhat elevated concentration of Sporormiella, but lower concentrations than the modern high-density bison and cattle grazing areas. Throughout the Holocene, Sporormiella frequencies are low, which suggests lower large ungulate densities and perhaps high mobility. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Do human parents face a quantity-quality tradeoff?: evidence from a Shuar community.

PubMed

Hagen, Edward H; Barrett, H Clark; Price, Michael E

2006-07-01

A number of evolutionary theories of human life history assume a quantity-quality tradeoff for offspring production: parents with fewer offspring can have higher biological fitness than those with more. Direct evidence for such a tradeoff, however, is mixed. We tested this assumption in a community of Ecuadorian Shuar hunter-horticulturalists, using child anthropometry as a proxy for fitness. We measured the impact of household consumer/producer (CP) ratio on height, weight, skinfold thicknesses, and arm and calf circumferences of 85 children and young adults. To control for possible "phenotypic" correlates that might mask the effect of CP ratio on anthropometry, we also measured household garden productivity, wealth, and social status. Regression models of the age-standardized variables indicated a significant negative impact of CP ratio on child growth and nutrition. The age-standardized height and weight of children in households with the largest CP ratio (10) were 1.38 and 1.44 standard deviations, respectively, below those of children in households with the smallest CP ratio (2). Surprisingly, garden productivity, wealth, and status had little to no effect on the fitness proxies. There was, however, an interesting and unexpected interaction between status and sex: for females, but not males, higher father status correlated significantly with higher values on the proxies.

Climate proxy data as groundwater tracers in regional flow systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, J. F.; Morrissey, S. K.; Stute, M.

2008-05-01

The isotopic and chemical signatures of groundwater reflect local climate conditions. By systematically analyzing groundwater and determining their hydrologic setting, records of past climates can be constructed. Because of their chemistries and relatively uncomplicated source functions, dissolved noble gases have yielded reliable records of continental temperatures for the last 30,000 to 50,000 years. Variations in the stable isotope compositions of groundwater due to long term climate changes have also been documented over these time scales. Because glacial - interglacial climate changes are relatively well known, these climate proxies can be used as "stratigraphic" markers within flow systems and used to distinguish groundwaters that have recharged during the Holocene from those recharged during the last glacial period, important time scales for distinguishing regional and local flow systems in many aquifers. In southern Georgia, the climate proxy tracers were able to identify leakage from surface aquifers into the Upper Floridan aquifer in areas previously thought to be confined. In south Florida, the transition between Holocene and glacial signatures in the Upper Floridan aquifer occurs mid-way between the recharge area and Lake Okeechobee. Down gradient of the lake, the proxies are uniform, indicating recharge during the last glacial period. Furthermore, there is no evidence for leakage from the shallow aquifers into the Upper Floridan. In the Lower Floridan, the climate proxies indicate that the saline water entered the aquifer after sea level rose to its present level.

The Pliocene to recent history of the Kuroshio and Tsushima Currents: a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Stephen J.; Kitamura, Akihisa; Iryu, Yasufumi; Itaki, Takuya; Koizumi, Itaru; Hoiles, Peter W.

2015-12-01

The Kuroshio Current is a major western boundary current controlled by the North Pacific Gyre. It brings warm subtropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to Japan exerting a major control on Asian climate. The Tsushima Current is a Kuroshio offshoot transporting warm water into the Japan Sea. Various proxies are used to determine the paleohistory of these currents. Sedimentological proxies such as reefs, bedforms, sediment source and sorting reveal paleocurrent strength and latitude. Proxies such as coral and mollusc assemblages reveal past shelfal current activity. Microfossil assemblages and organic/inorganic geochemical analyses determine paleo- sea surface temperature and salinity histories. Transportation of tropical palynomorphs and migrations of Indo-Pacific species to Japanese waters also reveal paleocurrent activity. The stratigraphic distribution of these proxies suggests the Kuroshio Current reached its present latitude (35 °N) by ~3 Ma when temperatures were 1 to 2 °C lower than present. At this time a weak Tsushima Current broke through Tsushima Strait entering the Japan Sea. Similar oceanic conditions persisted until ~2 Ma when crustal stretching deepened the Tsushima Strait allowing inflow during every interglacial. The onset of stronger interglacial/glacial cycles ~1 Ma was associated with increased North Pacific Gyre and Kuroshio Current intensity. This triggered Ryukyu Reef expansion when reefs reached their present latitude (~31 °N), thereafter the reef front advanced (~31 °N) and retreated (~25 °N) with each cycle. Foraminiferal proxy data suggests eastward deflection of the Kuroshio Current from its present path at 24 °N into the Pacific Ocean due to East Taiwan Channel restriction during the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently Kuroshio flow resumed its present trajectory during the Holocene. Ocean modeling and geochemical proxies show that the Kuroshio Current path may have been similar during glacials and interglacials, however the glacial mode of this current remains controversial. Paleohistorical studies form important analogues for current behavior with future climate change, however, there are insufficient studies at present in the region that may be used for this purpose. Modeling of the response of the Kuroshio Current to future global warming reveals that current velocity may increase by up to 0.3 m/sec associated with a northward migration of the Kuroshio Extension.

Mercury Sodium Exospheric Emission as a Proxy for Solar Perturbations Transit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsini, S.; Mangano, V.; Milillo, A.; Plainaki, C.; Mura, A.; Raines, J. M.; Laurenza, M.; De Angelis, E.; Rispoli, R.; Lazzarotto, F.; Aronica, A.

2018-05-01

We report about recent results published on Scientific Reports @nature.com showing the first evidence of direct relationship between exosphere Na dynamics observed from ground and ICME transit at Mercury, as detected by MESSENGER.

Holocene temperature history at the west Greenland Ice Sheet margin reconstructed from lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Losee, S.; Briner, J. P.; Francis, D.; Langdon, P. G.; Walker, I.

2011-12-01

Paleoclimate proxy data can help reduce uncertainties regarding how the Greenland Ice Sheet, and thus global sea level, will respond to future climate change. Studies of terrestrial deposits along Greenland's margins offer opportunities to reconstruct both past temperature changes and the associated changes in Greenland Ice Sheet extent, thus empirically characterizing the ice sheet's response to temperature change. Here we present Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions developed from sediment records of five lakes along the western ice sheet margin, near Jakobshavn Isbræ and Disko Bugt. Insect (Chironomidae, or non-biting midge) remains from North Lake provide quantitative estimates of summer temperatures over the past ca. 7500 years at multi-centennial resolution, and changes in sediment composition at all five lakes offer evidence for glacier fluctuations, changes in lake productivity, and other environmental changes throughout the Holocene. Aims of this study include quantification of warmth in the early to mid Holocene, when summer solar insolation forcing exceeded present-day values at northern latitudes and the local Greenland Ice Sheet margin receded inboard of its present position, and the magnitude of subsequent Neoglacial and Little Ice Age cooling that drove ice sheet expansion. We find that the Jakobshavn Isbrae region experienced the warmest temperatures of the Holocene (with summers 2 to 3.5 degrees C warmer than present) between ~6000 and 4000 years ago. Neoglacial cooling began rather abruptly ~4000 years ago and intensified 3000 years ago. Our proxy data suggest that the coldest summers of the Holocene occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Jakobshavn region. These results agree well with previous glacial geologic studies reconstructing local ice margin positions through the Holocene. Such reconstructions of paleoclimate and past ice sheet extent provide targets for testing and improving ice sheet models.

A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schittek, Karsten; Kock, Sebastian T.; Lücke, Andreas; Hense, Jonathan; Ohlendorf, Christian; Kulemeyer, Julio J.; Lupo, Liliana C.; Schäbitz, Frank

2016-05-01

High-altitude cushion peatlands are versatile archives for high-resolution palaeoenvironmental studies, due to their high accumulation rates, range of proxies, and sensitivity to climatic and/or human-induced changes. Especially within the Central Andes, the knowledge about climate conditions during the Holocene is limited. In this study, we present the environmental and climatic history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland (CTP), located in the dry Puna of NW Argentina, based on a multi-proxy approach. X-ray fluorescence (XRF), stable isotope and element content analyses (δ13C, δ15N, TN and TOC) were conducted to analyse the inorganic geochemistry throughout the sequence, revealing changes in the peatlands' past redox conditions. Pollen assemblages give an insight into substantial environmental changes on a regional scale. The palaeoclimate varied significantly during the last 2100 years. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that in situ moisture changes were coupled to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). A period of sustained dry conditions prevailed from around 150 BC to around AD 150. A more humid phase dominated between AD 200 and AD 550. Afterwards, the climate was characterised by changes between drier and wetter conditions, with droughts at around AD 650-800 and AD 1000-1100. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century (1815 Tambora eruption) seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes. In the past, the peatland recovered from climatic perturbations. Today, CTP is heavily degraded by human interventions, and the peat deposit is becoming increasingly susceptible to erosion and incision.

Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe

PubMed Central

Väliranta, M.; Salonen, J. S.; Heikkilä, M.; Amon, L.; Helmens, K.; Klimaschewski, A.; Kuhry, P.; Kultti, S.; Poska, A.; Shala, S.; Veski, S.; Birks, H. H.

2015-01-01

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses. PMID:25858780

Growth of a deep-water, predatory fish is influenced by the productivity of a boundary current system

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Hoang Minh; Rountrey, Adam N.; Meeuwig, Jessica J.; Coulson, Peter G.; Feng, Ming; Newman, Stephen J.; Waite, Anya M.; Wakefield, Corey B.; Meekan, Mark G.

2015-01-01

The effects of climate change on predatory fishes in deep shelf areas are difficult to predict because complex processes may govern food availability and temperature at depth. We characterised the net impact of recent environmental changes on hapuku (Polyprion oxygeneios), an apex predator found in continental slope habitats (>200 m depth) by using dendrochronology techniques to develop a multi-decadal record of growth from otoliths. Fish were sampled off temperate south-western Australia, a region strongly influenced by the Leeuwin Current, a poleward-flowing, eastern boundary current. The common variance among individual growth records was relatively low (3.4%), but the otolith chronology was positively correlated (r = 0.61, p < 0.02) with sea level at Fremantle, a proxy for the strength of the Leeuwin Current. The Leeuwin Current influences the primary productivity of shelf ecosystems, with a strong current favouring growth in hapuku. Leeuwin Current strength is predicted to decline under climate change models and this study provides evidence that associated productivity changes may flow through to higher trophic levels even in deep water habitats. PMID:25761975

Widespread Antarctic glaciation during the Late Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Andrew; Riley, Teal R.; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Rittner, Martin

2017-01-01

Marine sedimentary rocks drilled on the southeastern margin of the South Orkney microcontinent in Antarctica (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 113 Site 696) were deposited between ∼36.5 Ma to 33.6 Ma, across the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition. The recovered rocks contain abundant grains exhibiting mechanical features diagnostic of iceberg-rafted debris. Sand provenance based on a multi-proxy approach that included petrographic analysis of over 275,000 grains, detrital zircon geochronology and apatite thermochronometry rule out local sources (Antarctic Peninsula or the South Orkney Islands) for the material. Instead the ice-transported grains show a clear provenance from the southern Weddell Sea region, extending from the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains of West Antarctica to the coastal region of Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica. This study provides the first evidence for a continuity of widespread glacier calving along the coastline of the southern Weddell Sea embayment at least 2.5 million yrs before the prominent oxygen isotope event at 34-33.5 Ma that is considered to mark the onset of widespread glaciation of the Antarctic continent.

Growth of a deep-water, predatory fish is influenced by the productivity of a boundary current system.

PubMed

Nguyen, Hoang Minh; Rountrey, Adam N; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Coulson, Peter G; Feng, Ming; Newman, Stephen J; Waite, Anya M; Wakefield, Corey B; Meekan, Mark G

2015-03-12

The effects of climate change on predatory fishes in deep shelf areas are difficult to predict because complex processes may govern food availability and temperature at depth. We characterised the net impact of recent environmental changes on hapuku (Polyprion oxygeneios), an apex predator found in continental slope habitats (>200 m depth) by using dendrochronology techniques to develop a multi-decadal record of growth from otoliths. Fish were sampled off temperate south-western Australia, a region strongly influenced by the Leeuwin Current, a poleward-flowing, eastern boundary current. The common variance among individual growth records was relatively low (3.4%), but the otolith chronology was positively correlated (r = 0.61, p < 0.02) with sea level at Fremantle, a proxy for the strength of the Leeuwin Current. The Leeuwin Current influences the primary productivity of shelf ecosystems, with a strong current favouring growth in hapuku. Leeuwin Current strength is predicted to decline under climate change models and this study provides evidence that associated productivity changes may flow through to higher trophic levels even in deep water habitats.

The Limit of Magnetic-Shear Energy in Solar Active Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Ronald; Falconer, David; Sterling, Alphonse

2012-01-01

It has been found previously, by measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region's magnetic field, (1) that there is a sharp upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region's magnetic flux content, and (2) that most active regions are near this limit when their field explodes in a coronal mass ejection/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy-limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, we present evidence that specifies the underlying magnetic condition that gives rise to the free-energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free-energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find evidence that (1) in active regions at and near their free-energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non-free magnetic energy the potential field would have is of the order of one in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free-energy limit. Evidently, most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than one cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches one, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is one, most active regions are compelled to explode.

Familial aggregation patterns in mathematical ability.

PubMed

Wijsman, Ellen M; Robinson, Nancy M; Ainsworth, Kathryn H; Rosenthal, Elisabeth A; Holzman, Ted; Raskind, Wendy H

2004-01-01

Mathematical talent is an asset in modern society both at an individual and a societal level. Environmental factors such as quality of mathematics education undoubtedly affect an individual's performance, and there is some evidence that genetic factors also may play a role. The current study was performed to investigate the feasibility of undertaking genetics studies on mathematical ability. Because the etiology of low ability in mathematics is likely to be multifactorial and heterogeneous, we evaluated families ascertained through a proband with high mathematical performance in grade 7 on the SAT to eliminate, to some degree, adverse environmental factors. Families of sex-matched probands, selected for high verbal performance on the SAT, served as the comparison group. We evaluated a number of proxy measures for their usefulness in the study of clustering of mathematical talent. Given the difficulty of testing mathematics performance across developmental ages, especially with the added complexity of decreasing exposure to formal mathematics concepts post schooling, we also devised a semiquantitative scale that incorporated educational, occupational, and avocational information as a surrogate for an academic mathematics measure. Whereas several proxy measures showed no evidence of a genetic basis, we found that the semiquantitative scale of mathematical talent showed strong evidence of a genetic basis, with a differential response as a function of the performance measure used to select the proband. This observation suggests that there may be a genetic basis to specific mathematical talent, and that specific, as opposed to proxy, investigative measures that are designed to measure such talent in family members could be of benefit for this purpose.

The Limit of Magnetic-Shear Energy in Solar Active Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.; Sterling, Alphonse C.

2013-01-01

It has been found previously, by measuring from active ]region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, (1) that there is a sharp upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) that most active regions are near this limit when their field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main ]sequence path bordering the free ]energy ]limit line in (flux content, free ]energy proxy) phase space. Here we present evidence that specifies the underlying magnetic condition that gives rise to the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find evidence that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic ]shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is of order 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. Evidently, most active regions in which this core ]field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1, most active regions are compelled to explode.

Measuring the sustainability of a natural system by using multi-criteria distance function methods: Some critical issues.

PubMed

Diaz-Balteiro, L; Belavenutti, P; Ezquerro, M; González-Pachón, J; Ribeiro Nobre, S; Romero, C

2018-05-15

There is an important body of literature using multi-criteria distance function methods for the aggregation of a battery of sustainability indicators in order to obtain a composite index. This index is considered to be a proxy of the sustainability goodness of a natural system. Although this approach has been profusely used in the literature, it is not exempt from difficulties and potential pitfalls. Thus, in this paper, a significant number of critical issues have been identified showing different procedures capable of avoiding, or at least of mitigating, the inherent potential pitfalls associated with each one. The recommendations made in the paper could increase the theoretical soundness of the multi-criteria distance function methods when this type of approach is applied in the sustainability field, thus increasing the accuracy and realism of the sustainability measurements obtained. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibrating multiple isotopic proxies in a modern aragonite speleothem from northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronay, E.; Oster, J. L.; Sharp, W. D.; Marks, N.; Erhardt, A.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.

2017-12-01

Uranium, strontium, and calcium isotope ratios in calcite speleothems are used as proxies for water-soil-rock interactions and prior calcite precipitation, and thus provide information about effective rainfall amount variations, primarily in semi-arid or highly seasonal regions. However, less is known about how these proxies function in humid regions and in aragonite speleothems. In this study, we use meteorological data to calibrate (234U/238U)i and 87Sr/86Sr in a modern aragonite speleothem from northeast India, the rainiest place on Earth, to determine how these proxies reflect effective monsoon rainfall amount. MAW-0201 is an annually laminated aragonite stalagmite that grew from 1960-2013 in Mawmluh Cave, Meghalaya, India. Rainfall here is extremely seasonal due to the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), which brings several meters of rain to the region each summer, but with inter-annual variability in total rainfall. The δ18O in Mawmluh dripwater and speleothems reflects moisture source and transport, rather than rainfall amount. Variations in Mg, U, and Ba concentrations in MAW-0201 show seasonal and multi-annual variability. U and Mg are closely correlated, but multi-year periods show significant anti-correlation. The Mg and U distribution coefficients in calcite and aragonite indicate correlated periods are times of prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and anti-correlated periods are times of prior aragonite precipitation (PAP) in the epikarst. We use δ44/40Ca to test this hypothesis, as Ca isotopes fractionate differently during calcite and aragonite precipitation and speleothem δ44/40Ca will record unique PAP and PCP fingerprints. We propose such shifts from PCP to PAP reflect hydrologic variability and/or flow path changes, which provide a useful tool for understanding epikarst hydrology but may also be a complicating factor in speleothem-based paleoclimate interpretations. Preliminary (234U/238U)i (always <1) and 87Sr/86Sr spanning 1991-2009 each show significant variability outside of analytical error. (234U/238U)i displays a decadal trend, gradually increasing until 2000 and decreasing to the end of the record. Several years in the 87Sr/86Sr record have anomalously high values, which may reflect increased sea spray input and provide unique information on the wind component of the ISM.

Multiple Types of Memory and Everyday Functional Assessment in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Beaver, Jenna

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective Current proxy measures for assessing everyday functioning (e.g., questionnaires, performance-based measures, and direct observation) show discrepancies in their rating of functional status. The present study investigated the relationship between multiple proxy measures of functional status and content memory (i.e., memory for information), temporal order memory, and prospective memory in an older adult sample. Method A total of 197 community-dwelling older adults who did (n = 45) or did not meet (n = 152) criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), completed six different assessments of functional status (two questionnaires, two performance-based tasks, and two direct observation tasks) as well as experimental measures of content memory, prospective memory, and temporal order memory. Results After controlling for demographics and content memory, the temporal order and prospective memory measures explained a significant amount of variance in all proxy functional status measures. When all variables were entered into the regression analyses, content memory and prospective memory were found to be significant predictors of all measures of functional status, whereas temporal order memory was a significant predictor for the questionnaire and direct observation measures, but not performance-based measures. Conclusion The results suggest that direct observation and questionnaire measures may be able to capture components of everyday functioning that require context and temporal sequencing abilities, such as multi-tasking, that are not as well captured in many current laboratory performance-based measures of functional status. Future research should aim to inform the development and use of maximally effective and valid proxy measures of functional ability. PMID:28334170

Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

PubMed

Mazzoni, Alberto; Lindén, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T

2015-12-01

Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo.

Detecting oscillatory patterns and time lags from proxy records with non-uniform sampling: Some pitfalls and possible solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Reik

2013-04-01

Time series analysis offers a rich toolbox for deciphering information from high-resolution geological and geomorphological archives and linking the thus obtained results to distinct climate and environmental processes. Specifically, on various time-scales from inter-annual to multi-millenial, underlying driving forces exhibit more or less periodic oscillations, the detection of which in proxy records often allows linking them to specific mechanisms by which the corresponding drivers may have affected the archive under study. A persistent problem in geomorphology is that available records do not present a clear signal of the variability of environmental conditions, but exhibit considerable uncertainties of both the measured proxy variables and the associated age model. Particularly, time-scale uncertainty as well as the heterogeneity of sampling in the time domain are source of severe conceptual problems that may lead to false conclusions about the presence or absence of oscillatory patterns and their mutual phasing in different archives. In my presentation, I will discuss how one can cope with non-uniformly sampled proxy records to detect and quantify oscillatory patterns in one or more data sets. For this purpose, correlation analysis is reformulated using kernel estimates which are found superior to classical estimators based on interpolation or Fourier transform techniques. In order to characterize non-stationary or noisy periodicities and their relative phasing between different records, an extension of continuous wavelet transform is utilized. The performance of both methods is illustrated for different case studies. An extension to explicitly considering time-scale uncertainties by means of Bayesian techniques is briefly outlined.

Holocene evolution of aquatic bioactivity and terrestrial erosion inferred from Skorarvatn, Vestfirðir, Iceland: Where is the Little Ice Age?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, D.; Geirsdottir, A.; Miller, G. H.

2016-12-01

Icelandic lake sediment is well suited to provide high-resolution, well-dated continuous archives of North Atlantic climate variability. We provide new insight into the Holocene climate evolution of Vestfirðir, NW Iceland, from a 10.3 ka multi-proxy lake sediment record from non-glacial lake Skorarvatn. Age control is derived from a combination of tephrochronology and 14C-dated macrofossils. Sediment samples were analyzed for both physical (MS, density) and biological (TC, TN, δ13C, δ15N, C/N, BSi) climate proxies, providing a sub-centennial record of aquatic bioactivity and terrestrial landscape stability, and hence, summer temperature. The lake basin was ice free by at least 10.3 ka yet the waning Icelandic Ice Sheet persisted in the catchment until 9.3 ka. The local Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), inferred from maximum aquatic bioactivity, spans 8.9 to 7.2 ka but was interrupted by significant cooling at 8.2 ka. In accordance with other Icelandic climate records documenting progressively cooler summers following the HTM, our record reveals reduced aquatic productivity and elevated terrestrial erosion toward the present. Superimposed on this 1st order trend are abrupt episodes of cooling, inferred from low aquatic bioactivity and/or enhanced landscape instability, at 6.4, 4.2, 3, 2.5 and 1.5 ka. Surprisingly, there is no clear indication of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in our record despite evidence for the local ice cap, Drangajökull, attaining maximum areal coverage at this time. Persistently low temperatures inferred from reduced aquatic productivity plateau at 2 ka whereas increasing terrestrial erosion ceases at 1 ka. Lack of a catchment erosion signal during the LIA may be the result of depleted catchment soils and/or perennially frozen ground preventing the mobilization of soil and vegetation. With the exception of the LIA, Skorarvatn's qualitative summer temperature record corresponds closely to summer sea surface temperature and sea ice records on the North Iceland Shelf, supporting previous evidence that the North Atlantic imparts a significant impact of the state of Iceland's terrestrial climate.

High latitude control on tropical North Pacific thermocline oxygen via deep ocean circulation: implications for atmospheric CO2 and N2O concentrations over TERM1.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaccard, S. L.; Eric, G. D.; Haug, G. H.; Sigman, D. M.; Francois, R.; Dulski, P.

2006-12-01

Low-latitude Pacific Ocean records of past changes in productivity and denitrification have often been ascribed to local processes, including changes in local wind forcing, with some recent hypothesis calling on remote control by thermocline ventilation processes. Here we show that deep thermohaline circulation, a fundamentally high-latitude process, is also linked to the low-latitude thermocline biogeochemistry through its impact on nutrient and dissolved oxygen distributions. We present new, multi-proxy evidence from sediment records from the abyssal subarctic North Pacific, including sedimentary redox-sensitive trace metal distribution, Th-normalized biogenic barium, calcium carbonate, and opal mass accumulation rates, and bulk sedimentary 15N measurements. These proxies show that the abyss was significantly depleted in oxygen, and low 13C, all consistent with high DIC concentrations. Meanwhile, above a deep chemical divide, the overlying waters were relatively well-oxygenated and nutrient-poor. At the mid-point of the deglaciation, the glacial deep water mass dissipated upwards in the water column, releasing deeply-sequestered CO2 to the atmosphere and shifting nutrients into the thermocline. The flux of regenerated nutrients to the sunlit surface ocean associated with this breakdown of the deep water mass enhanced primary productivity throughout the subarctic Pacific, while records from lower latitudes of the North Pacific show a parallel boom in export production. The accelerated flux of organic matter from the surface contributed towards an intensification of the thermocline oxygen minimum zone, accelerating denitrification in the Eastern (sub)tropical North Pacific and the production of nitrous oxide. These observations, taken together with our evidence for changes in the deep North Pacific, suggest that the flux of nutrients from the deep North Pacific into the upper water column increased at the end of the ice age. This release may have occurred via the polar oceans, which today feed nutrients into the lower latitude thermocline. Alternatively, it may have occurred directly, by vertical mixing in the ocean interior. Regardless of the mechanism, this transition led to the modern configuration of a relatively well-ventilated deep sea, overlain by an oxygen minimum.

High-resolution multi-proxy reconstruction of Lake Ighiel (Western Carpathians, Romania): processes and controlling factors of lacustrine dynamics during the mid and late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haliuc, Aritina; Veres, Daniel; Hubay, Katalin; Begy, Robert; Brauer, Achim; Hutchinson, Simon; Braun, Mihaly

2016-04-01

Concerns about current and prospective environmental change have increased the interest in past climate variability and its impact on the bio-hydro-atmosphere and human society. Acting as high-resolution terrestrial archives, lacustrine sediments are the result of the complex interaction between internal and external forcing and an important tool in efforts to resolve questions related to the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions of the recent past. Here we discuss a new, high-resolution sedimentary record from the Romanian Carpathians (central-eastern Europe). Lake Ighiel (46° 10'50"N, 23° 22'00"E) is a small lake located in a mid-altitude mountain belt (Trascau Mountains) at an altitude of 924 m ( lake maximum depth 9 m; catchment area 487 ha). We employ detailed 210Pb and 14C dating coupled with high-resolution X-ray fluorescence scanning (μ-XRF) measurements, long-core sedimentary logging, environmental magnetic proxies (susceptibility, natural and induced remanences) in an attempt to trace the 6000 years evolution of lake-catchment system. More specifically, we discuss: i) the temporal evolution of the main sedimentation phases of the lake based on sedimentological, geochemical and magnetic proxies; ii) the amplitude and interplay of processes (natural and/or anthropogenic) controlling the depositional environment through time; iii) assess the contribution of each controlling factors and reconstruct the evolution of lacustrine system and palaeoclimate forcing using multivariate statistics. The sedimentary record can be divided into six phases based on alternating high and low detrital fluxes, oscillating lacustrine productivity and redox conditions. A series of detrital events (5200; 4800; 5400; 5250; 4500; 4050; 3800; 3500; 3250; 3050; 2650; 2350; 2250; 1400; 1100; 500; 100 cal yr BP) were identified by microfacies analyses and X-ray fluorescence scanning (μ-XRF) analysis. These events are reflected in most of the parameters and appear synchronous with climatically induced forcing such as increased regional precipitation and decreased total solar radiation. These changes are superimposed on clear anthropogenic derived contributions reflecting natural and mineral resource exploitation during the early metal ages, the Roman and Medieval periods, as well as during the recent period. The comparison of the our proxies with similarly resolved records from central-eastern Europe highlight the potential of Lake Ighiel as a record of palaeoclimatic and palaeohydrological conditions in a region still lacking high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental archives. The authors acknowledge financial support from project PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0530 "Millennial-scale geochemical records of anthropogenic impact and natural climate change in the Romanian Carpathians", contract nr. 15/02.09.2013.

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Foley, Kevin M.; Johnson, Andrew L. A.; Williams, Mark; Riesselman, Christina

2013-01-01

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's Pliocene Research,Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Environment and paleoecology of a 12 ka mid-North American Younger Dryas forest chronicled in tree rings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panyushkina, Irina P.; Leavitt, Steven W.; Thompson, Todd A.; Schneider, Allan F.; Lange, Todd

2008-01-01

Until now, availability of wood from the Younger Dryas abrupt cooling event (YDE) in N. America ca. 12.9 to 11.6 ka has been insufficient to develop high-resolution chronologies for refining our understanding of YDE conditions. Here we present a multi-proxy tree-ring chronology (ring widths, “events” evidenced by microanatomy and macro features, stable isotopes) from a buried black spruce forest in the Great Lakes area (Liverpool East site), spanning 116 yr at ca. 12,000 cal yr BP. During this largely cold and wet period, the proxies convey a coherent and precise forest history including frost events, tilting, drowning and burial in estuarine sands as the Laurentide Ice Sheet deteriorated. In the middle of the period, a short mild interval appears to have launched the final and largest episode of tree recruitment. Ultimately the tops of the trees were sheared off after death, perhaps by wind-driven ice floes, culminating an interval of rising water and sediment deposition around the base of the trees. Although relative influences of the continental ice sheet and local effects from ancestral Lake Michigan are indeterminate, the tree-ring proxies provide important insight into environment and ecology of a N. American YDE boreal forest stand.

An assessment of latest Cretaceous Pycnodonte vesicularis (Lamarck, 1806) shells as records for palaeoseasonality: a multi-proxy investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, Niels J.; Vellekoop, Johan; Vorsselmans, Robin; Golreihan, Asefeh; Soete, Jeroen; Petersen, Sierra V.; Meyer, Kyle W.; Casadio, Silvio; Speijer, Robert P.; Claeys, Philippe

2018-06-01

In order to assess the potential of the honeycomb oyster Pycnodonte vesicularis for the reconstruction of palaeoseasonality, several specimens recovered from late Maastrichtian strata in the Neuquén Basin (Argentina) were subject to a multi-proxy investigation, involving scanning techniques and trace element and isotopic analysis. Combined CT scanning and light microscopy reveals two calcite microstructures in P. vesicularis shells (vesicular and foliated calcite). Micro-XRF analysis and cathodoluminescence microscopy show that reducing pore fluids were able to migrate through the vesicular portions of the shells (aided by bore holes) and cause recrystallization of the vesicular calcite. This renders the vesicular portions not suitable for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. In contrast, stable isotope and trace element compositions show that the original chemical composition of the foliated calcite is well-preserved and can be used for the reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental conditions. Stable oxygen and clumped isotope thermometry on carbonate from the dense hinge of the shell yield sea water temperatures of 11°C, while previous TEX86H palaeothermometry yielded much higher temperatures. The difference is ascribed to seasonal bias in the growth of P. vesicularis, causing warm seasons to be underrepresented from the record, while TEX86H palaeothermometry seems to be biased towards warmer surface water temperatures. The multi-proxy approach employed here enables us to differentiate between well-preserved and diagenetically altered portions of the shells and provides an improved methodology for reconstructing palaeoenvironmental conditions in deep time. While establishing a chronology for these shells was complicated by growth cessations and diagenesis, cyclicity in trace elements and stable isotopes allowed for a tentative interpretation of the seasonal cycle in late Maastrichtian palaeoenvironment of the Neuquén Basin. Attempts to independently verify the seasonality in sea water temperature by Mg / Ca ratios of shell calcite are hampered by significant uncertainty due to the lack of proper transfer functions for pycnodontein oysters. Future studies of fossil ostreid bivalves should target dense, foliated calcite rather than sampling bulk or vesicular calcite. Successful application of clumped isotope thermometry on fossil bivalve calcite in this study indicates that temperature seasonality in fossil ostreid bivalves may be constrained by the sequential analysis of well-preserved foliated calcite samples using this method.

Multi-proxy evidence for climate-driven changes in arctic lakes from northern Russia over the Holocene.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Self, Angela; Brooks, Stephen; Jones, Vivienne; Solovieva, Nadia; McGowan, Suzanne; Rosén, Peter; Parrott, Emily; Seppä, Heikki; Salonen, Sakari

2010-05-01

Average arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world over the last 100 years and climate projections suggest this trend is likely to continue resulting in an additional warming of 2 - 3°C in annual mean air temperatures by 2050. Freshwater ecosystems occupy a substantial area of the terrestrial environment in the Arctic and are particularly sensitive to temperature increases which may lead to profound changes in catchment characteristics, permafrost, hydrology and nutrient availability. Therefore it is important to understand how past changes in climate have affected these ecosystems. In this paper we present one of the first quantitative multi-proxy climate records from arctic Siberia. The affect of early - mid Holocene and recent climate change on arctic lakes in northern Russia were investigated in multi-proxy studies. The past climate was reconstructed using chironomid inference models to estimate mean July air temperatures and trends in continentality. Stable isotopes and LOI were analysed to infer past changes in sediment organic matter. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and/or diatoms were used to infer changes in lake water total organic carbon and algal pigments and/or diatoms were used to infer changes in productivity and light penetration in the lake. Analyses of a sediment core from a tundra lake (Lake Kharinei) in north-eastern European Russia show significant assemblage changes in diatoms, chironomids and pigments, which coincide with climate-driven vegetation shifts from open birch forest to spruce forest and then to tundra over the Holocene. During the open birch phase of the late Glacial - early Holocene, chironomid-inferred reconstructions suggest that the climate was approximately 1 - 3°C warmer and more continental than present. Isotopic analyses indicate a productive environment receiving a significant input of organic material from terrestrial plants into the lake. Both diatoms and NIRS-TOC also suggest that the lake water was relatively high in TOC. Spruce forest became established within the catchment during the early - mid Holocene, which appears to have stimulated algal production. Throughout this period July air temperatures are inferred to have gradually declined to present-day values and the climate became more maritime. From ca. 4000 cal yrs BP July air temperatures remained stable but continentality increased leading to a shorter ice-free period. The pollen and macrofossil record indicates a transition to tundra vegetation ca 3000 cal yr BP which coincides with major changes in pigments, chironomids and diatoms. High resolution reconstruction of climate variability over the last 200 years from two tundra lakes on the Putoran Plateau, western Siberia, suggest that mean July air temperatures warmed by approximately 0.5°C between ca 1820 - 1980 and have remained relatively stable over the last 30 years. However major compositional changes in the chironomid and diatom assemblages have occurred within the last 125 - 50 years. Since the 1970s increases in the instrumental June temperature record and a chironomid-inferred shift to a more maritime climate have been accompanied by increases in diatom accumulation rates together with an increase in within-lake productivity and a trend towards increased algal productivity (as highlighted by stable isotope analysis). The synchronicity of the changes suggests the biota may be responding to lengthening of the ice-free period and related limnological changes. The changes in these Russian lakes corroborate results from Europe and Arctic Canada and indicate a circumpolar pattern of climate-driven regime change in arctic lakes in the last 100 years.

Planktonic Foraminifera Proxies Calibration Off the NW Iberian Margin: Nutrients Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salgueiro, E.; Castro, C. G.; Zuniga, D.; Martin, P. A.; Groeneveld, J.; de la Granda, F.; Villaceiros-Robineau, N.; Alonso-Perez, F.; Alberto, A.; Rodrigues, T.; Rufino, M. M.; Abrantes, F. F. G.; Voelker, A. H. L.

2014-12-01

Planktonic foraminifera (PF) shells preserved in marine sediments are a useful tool to reconstruct productivity conditions at different geological timescales. However, the accuracy of these paleoreconstructions depends on the data set and calibration quality. Several calibration works have been defining and improving the use of proxies for productivity and nutrient cycling parameters. Our contribution is centred on a multi-proxy calibration at a regional coastal upwelling system. To minimize the existing uncertainties affecting the use of trace elements and C stable isotopes as productivity proxy in the high productivity upwelling areas, we investigate the content and distribution of Ba/Ca and δ13C in the water column, its transference into the planktonic foraminifera shells, and, how the living planktonic foraminifera Ba/Ca and δ13C signal is related to the same planktonic foraminiferal species preserved in the sediment record. This study is based on a large data set from two stations (RAIA - 75m water depth, and CALIBERIA - 350m water depth) located off the NW Iberian margin (41.5-42.5ºN; 9-10ºW), and includes: i) two year monthly water column data (temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll a, Ba/Ca, and δ13C-DIC); ii) seasonal Ba/Ca, δ13C in several living PF species at both stations; and iii) Ba/Ca and δ13C in several PF species from a large set of core-top sediment samples in the study region. Additionally, total organic carbon and total alkenones were also measured in the sediment. Our results showed the link between productivity proxies in the surface sediment foraminifera assemblage and the processes regulating the actual phytoplankton dynamics in an upwelling area. The understanding of this relationship has special relevance since it gives fundamental information related to the past oceanic biogeochemistry and/or climate and improves the prevision of future changes against possible climate variability due to anthropogenic forcing.

Oral health-related quality of life in youth receiving cleft-related surgery: self-report and proxy ratings.

PubMed

Broder, Hillary L; Wilson-Genderson, Maureen; Sischo, Lacey

2017-04-01

This paper evaluated the impact of cleft-related surgery on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) of youth with cleft over time. Data were derived from a 5-year, multi-center, prospective, longitudinal study of 1196 youth with cleft lip and/or palate and their caregivers. Eligible youth were between 7.5 and 18.5 years old, spoke English or Spanish, and were non-syndromic. During each observational period, which included baseline, and 1- and 2-year post-baseline follow-up visits, youths and their caregivers completed the Child Oral Health Impact Profile, a validated measure of OHRQoL. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to analyze the effects of receipt of craniofacial surgery on OHRQoL over time. During the course of this study a total of 516 patients (43 %) received at least one surgery. Youth in the surgery recommendation group had lower self- (β = -2.18, p < 0.05) and proxy-rated (β = -2.92, p < 0.02) OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical self- and proxy-rated OHRQoL at baseline. Both surgical and non-surgical youth (β = 3.73, p < 0.001) and caregiver (β = 1.91, p < 0.05) ratings of OHRQoL improved over time. There was significant incremental improvement (time × surgery interaction) in self-reported OHRQoL for youth postsurgery (β = 1.04, p < 0.05), but this postsurgery increment was not seen in the caregiver proxy ratings. Surgical intervention impacts OHRQoL among youth with cleft. Youth who were surgical candidates had lower baseline self- and caregiver-rated OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical youth. Youth who underwent cleft-related surgery had significant incremental improvements in self-rated but not caregiver (proxy)-rated OHRQoL after surgery.

Phanerozoic pCO2 recorded by the plants that used it: refinement, independent validation and multi-proxy comparison of a physiological model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franks, P.; Royer, D. L.; Kowalczyk, J.; Milligan, J.

2016-12-01

CO2 has been described as the most important greenhouse gas in terms of maintaining a habitable climate on Earth. However, pCO2 has not been constant through time and the resulting variability of its forcing has contributed to periodic swings in global climate between warmer and cooler periods. Reliable prediction of the magnitude and effects of future global warming with increasing pCO2 depends on quantifying climate sensitivity to forcing by pCO2, which can only be measured from the record of pCO2 and temperature in Earth's geological past. This has been difficult because of inherent uncertainties, sometimes unquantifiable, in the reconstruction of pCO2 for past geologic periods. Recently a new CO2 proxy was developed based on the principle that photosynthesis by plants is quantitatively dependent on pCO2 (CO2 being the substrate for photosynthesis), with the record of this relationship preserved in the structure and chemistry of plant fossils (Franks et al., 2014, Geophysical Research Letters, 41: 4685-4694). This method has constrained uncertainty to more moderate bounds and eliminated instances of unbounded uncertainty. Here we describe a refinement to one of the input physiological quantities, the present-day ratio of intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration, ci/ca, which improves model accuracy. We also summarise the key findings of an independent validation and multi proxy comparison of the model using fossil plant material from a floristically diverse early Paleocene site which, at 64.5 Ma, was living 1.5 m.y after the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (KPB) mass extinction event. Principal amongst these findings is an upward revision of pCO2 to a median 612 ppm for the early Paleocene, with a corresponding minimum average Earth system sensitivity of 3.8 °C.

Major storm periods and climate forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Bony, Guénaëlle

2015-12-01

Big storm events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. In the Western Mediterranean, where human societies colonized and occupied the coastal areas since the Ancient times, the variability of storm activity for the past three millennia was investigated with a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical study from a lagoonal sequence. Mappings of the geochemistry and magnetic susceptibility of detrital sources in the watershed of the lagoon and from the coastal barriers were undertaken in order to track the terrestrial or coastal/marine origin of sediments deposited into the lagoon. The multi-proxy analysis shows that coarser material, low magnetic susceptibility, and high strontium content characterize the sedimentological signature of the paleostorm levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. A comparison with North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean paleoclimate proxies shows that the phases of high storm activity occurred during cold periods, suggesting a climatically-controlled mechanism for the occurrence of these storm periods. Besides, an in-phase storm activity pattern is found between the Western Mediterranean and Northern Europe. Spectral analyses performed on the Sr content revealed a new 270-year solar-driven pattern of storm cyclicity. For the last 3000 years, this 270-year cycle defines a succession of ten major storm periods (SP) with a mean duration of 96 ± 54 yr. Periods of higher storm activity are recorded from >680 to 560 cal yr BC (SP10, end of the Iron Age Cold Period), from 140 to 820 cal yr AD (SP7 to SP5) with a climax of storminess between 400 and 800 cal yr AD (Dark Ages Cold Period), and from 1230 to >1800 cal yr AD (SP3 to SP1, Little Ice Age). Periods of low storm activity occurred from 560 cal yr BC to 140 cal yr AD (SP9 and SP8, Roman Warm Period) and from 820 to 1230 cal yr AD (SP4, Medieval Warm Period).

Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the persistence case but still positive overall.

Land-Sea relationships of climate-related records: example of the Holocene in the eastern Canadian Arctic and Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vernal, Anne; Fréchette, Bianca; Hillaire-Marcel, Claude

2017-04-01

Anne de Vernal, Bianca Fréchette, Claude Hillaire-Marcel Important progresses have been made to reconstruct climate and ocean changes through time. However, there is often a hiatus between the land-based climate reconstructions and paleoceanographical data. The reconstructed parameters are not the same (e.g. surface air temperature vs. sea-surface temperature). Moreover, the spatial (local to regional) and temporal dimensions (seasonal, annual to multi-decadal) of proxy-data are often inconsistent, thus preventing direct correlation of time series and often leading to uncertainties in multi-site, multi-proxy compilations. Here, we address the issue of land-sea relationships in the eastern Canadian Arctic-Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea-western Greenland based on the examination of different climate-related information from marine cores (dinocysts) collected nearshore vs. offshore, ice cores (isotopes), fjord and lake data (pollen). The combined information tends to indicate that "climate" changes are not easily neither adequately captured by temperature and temperature shifts. However, the seasonal contrast of temperatures seems to be a key parameter. Whereas it is often attenuated offshore, it is generally easy to reconstruct nearshore, where water stratification is usually stronger. The confrontation of data also shows a relationship between ice core data and sea-ice cover and/or sea-surface salinity, suggesting that air-sea exchanges in basins surrounding ice sheets play a significant role with respect to their isotopic composition. On the whole, combined onshore-offshore data consistently suggest a two-step shift towards optimal summer and winter conditions the circum Baffin Bay and northern Labrador Sea at 7.5 and 6 ka BP. These delayed optimal conditions seem to result from ice-meltwater discharges maintaining low salinity conditions in marine surface waters and thus a strong seasonality.

Not so deserted…paleoecology and human subsistence in Central Iberia (Guadalajara, Spain) around the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yravedra, José; Julien, Marie-Anne; Alcaraz-Castaño, Manuel; Estaca-Gómez, Verónica; Alcolea-González, Javier; de Balbín-Behrmann, Rodrigo; Lécuyer, Christophe; Marcel, Claude Hillaire; Burke, Ariane

2016-05-01

In contrast to the coastal areas of the Iberian Peninsula, the Upper Palaeolithic settlement of central Iberia, dominated by the Spanish plateau, is poorly known. Traditional models assume a total or virtual depopulation of the interior of the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial. In this paper we present a detailed investigation of human-environment interactions through the first zooarchaeological, taphonomic and isotopic study of the key site of Peña Capón, a rock shelter located in the south-eastern foothills of the Central System range that contains a multi-layered deposit dated to marine isotope stage 2 (MIS 2). Analyses of the faunal assemblages of the Proto-Solutrean (3) and Middle Solutrean (2) layers show that human preferentially hunted horse, deer and iberian ibex living in the vicinity of the rock shelter. Isotope geochemistry of the animal remains of Peña Capón provides us with the first detailed intra-tooth multi-proxy analysis for this time period in south-western Europe, providing estimates of climatic conditions, seasonal flucturation of diet, as well as patterns of seasonal mobility. Our results indicate that human presence at Peña Capón was apparently restricted to relatively warm intervals around the LGM or reflects the presence of an ecological refuge, and provide us with evidence of recurrent human presence in the Iberian interior during the Upper Paleolithic prior to the Magdalenian.

Anthropogenic Eutrophication of Narragansett Bay: Evidence from Dated Sediment Cores

EPA Science Inventory

The organic matter preserved in estuarine sediments provides a number of useful indicators, or "proxies" that can be used to infer paleoenvironmental changes One type of paleoenvironmental change is anthropogenic eutrophication. The human activity largely responsible for increasi...

Climatic controls on Later Stone Age human adaptation in Africa's southern Cape.

PubMed

Chase, Brian M; Faith, J Tyler; Mackay, Alex; Chevalier, Manuel; Carr, Andrew S; Boom, Arnoud; Lim, Sophak; Reimer, Paula J

2018-01-01

Africa's southern Cape is a key region for the evolution of our species, with early symbolic systems, marine faunal exploitation, and episodic production of microlithic stone tools taken as evidence for the appearance of distinctively complex human behavior. However, the temporally discontinuous nature of this evidence precludes ready assumptions of intrinsic adaptive benefit, and has encouraged diverse explanations for the occurrence of these behaviors, in terms of regional demographic, social and ecological conditions. Here, we present a new high-resolution multi-proxy record of environmental change that indicates that faunal exploitation patterns and lithic technologies track climatic variation across the last 22,300 years in the southern Cape. Conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation were humid, and zooarchaeological data indicate high foraging returns. By contrast, the Holocene is characterized by much drier conditions and a degraded resource base. Critically, we demonstrate that systems for technological delivery - or provisioning - were responsive to changing humidity and environmental productivity. However, in contrast to prevailing models, bladelet-rich microlithic technologies were deployed under conditions of high foraging returns and abandoned in response to increased aridity and less productive subsistence environments. This suggests that posited links between microlithic technologies and subsistence risk are not universal, and the behavioral sophistication of human populations is reflected in their adaptive flexibility rather than in the use of specific technological systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A 13000-year, high-resolution multi-proxy record of climate variability with episodes of enhanced atmospheric dust in Western Asia: Evidence from Neor peat complex in NW Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi, O.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Peterson, L. C.

2011-12-01

The regional climate over West Asia, extending between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, is governed by interactions between three major synoptic systems; mid-latitude Westerlies, the Siberian Anticyclone and the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon. In recent years, a number of paleoclimate studies have drawn potential links between episodes of abrupt climate change during the Holocene, and the rise and fall of human civilizations across the "Fertile Crescent" of West Asia. High-resolution archives of climate variability from this region, however, are scarce, and at times contradicting. For example, while pollen and planktonic data from lakes in Turkey and Iran suggest that dry, continental conditions prevailed during the early-middle Holocene, oxygen isotope records indicate that relatively wet conditions dominated during this interval over West Asia. We present interannual to decadal multi-proxy records of climate variability from a peat complex in NW Iran to reconstruct changes in moisture and atmospheric dust content during the last 13000 years. Radiocarbon dating on 20 samples from a 775-cm peat core show a nearly constant rate of accumulation (1.7 mm yr-1, R2=0.99) since 13356 ± 116 cal yr B.P. Down-core X-ray fluorescence measurements of conservative lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Zr, Ti) as well as redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Fe, K, Rb, Zn, Cu, and Co) at 2 mm intervals reveal several periods of elevated dust input to this region since the early Holocene. Down-core variations of total organic carbon and total nitrogen co-vary closely and are inversely correlated with conservative lithogenic elements (Al, Si, Ti), indicating a potential link between climate change and accumulation of organic carbon in the Neor peat mire. Major episodes of enhanced dust deposition (13000-12000, 11700-11200, 9200-8800, 7000-6000, 4200-3200, 2800-2200 and 1500-600 cal yr B.P) are in good agreement with other proxy records that document more arid climate in Asia and eastern Mediterranean Sea during these intervals. The relationship between periods of elevated dust input and the response of civilizations in the region, such as the Akkadian and Persian Empires, can also be inferred from variation of conservative lithogenic elements since 4200 cal yr B.P. Intensive dust deposition during 4200-3200 cal yr BP, for example, coincides with similar dry conditions documented by oxygen isotope and geochemical data from Lake Van and Tecer of Turkey, the geochemical data from the Gulf of Oman and oxygen isotope records from Soreq Cave in Israel. Several significant periodicities (e.g. 750, 900, 1550 and 3000 yr) observed from wavelet analysis of refractory elements correspond with the timing of internal climate feedbacks and/or solar variability as potential modulating mechanisms for abrupt climate change in West Asia during the Holocene.

Timing and Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrological Impacts: Periodicity in Natural Variations

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers, and predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. In palaeoclmatic investigations, climate proxy evidence has une...

Ethical use of covert videoing techniques in detecting Munchausen syndrome by proxy.

PubMed Central

Foreman, D M; Farsides, C

1993-01-01

Munchausen syndrome by proxy is an especially malignant form of child abuse in which the carer (usually the mother) fabricates or exacerbates illness in the child to obtain medical attention. It can result in serious illness and even death of the child and it is difficult to detect. Some investigators have used video to monitor the carer's interaction with the child without obtaining consent--covert videoing. The technique presents several ethical problems, including exposure of the child to further abuse and a breach of trust between carer, child, and the professionals. Although covert videoing can be justified in restricted circumstances, new abuse procedures under the Children Act now seem to make its use unethical in most cases. Sufficient evidence should mostly be obtained from separation of the child and carer or videoing with consent to enable action to be taken to protect the child under an assessment order. If the new statutory instruments prove ineffective in Munchausen syndrome by proxy covert videoing may need to be re-evaluated. PMID:8401021

Time discounting and the body mass index. Evidence from the Netherlands.

PubMed

Borghans, Lex; Golsteyn, Bart H H

2006-01-01

In many Western countries, the relative weight of people -- measured by the body mass index (BMI) -- has increased substantially in recent years, leading to an increasing incidence of overweight and related health problems. As with many forms of risky behavior, it is plausible that overweight is related to the individual discount rate. Increases in credit card debts, the rise in gambling and the development of a more hedonic life style, suggest that the average discount rate has increased over time. An increase in time discounting may be a contributing factor in the rise in BMI. Applying a large set of indicators for the individual discount rate from a Dutch survey, this paper analyzes whether changes in time discounting can account for differences in body mass between individuals at a given point in time and whether changes in the average individual discount rate can explain the remarkable increase in BMI experienced in recent years in the Netherlands. We find some evidence for a link between time discounting and differences in BMI between people, but this relationship depends strongly on the choice of the proxy for the discount rate. Giving our hypothesis the best chance, we analyze the development of the time discounting proxies that are most strongly related to BMI. We find no evidence for a change of these proxies over time. Our main conclusion therefore is that overweight might be related to the way people discount future health benefits, but the increase in BMI is more likely explained by shifts in other parameters that determine the intertemporal decisions regarding the trade-off of current and future health and satisfaction.

Cross contrast multi-channel image registration using image synthesis for MR brain images.

PubMed

Chen, Min; Carass, Aaron; Jog, Amod; Lee, Junghoon; Roy, Snehashis; Prince, Jerry L

2017-02-01

Multi-modal deformable registration is important for many medical image analysis tasks such as atlas alignment, image fusion, and distortion correction. Whereas a conventional method would register images with different modalities using modality independent features or information theoretic metrics such as mutual information, this paper presents a new framework that addresses the problem using a two-channel registration algorithm capable of using mono-modal similarity measures such as sum of squared differences or cross-correlation. To make it possible to use these same-modality measures, image synthesis is used to create proxy images for the opposite modality as well as intensity-normalized images from each of the two available images. The new deformable registration framework was evaluated by performing intra-subject deformation recovery, intra-subject boundary alignment, and inter-subject label transfer experiments using multi-contrast magnetic resonance brain imaging data. Three different multi-channel registration algorithms were evaluated, revealing that the framework is robust to the multi-channel deformable registration algorithm that is used. With a single exception, all results demonstrated improvements when compared against single channel registrations using the same algorithm with mutual information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Late Eocene Hydrological Conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feakins, S. J.; Deconto, R. M.; Warny, S.

2013-12-01

The late Eocene to Oligocene transition (EOT) witnessed a major ice advance on Antarctica. Little is known about hydrological conditions in the Antarctic Peninsula during the late Eocene prior to the major ice advance. Here we explore the hydrological conditions with proxy reconstructions from marine sediment core NBP0602A-3C, adjacent to the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, with sediments dated to approximately 35.9 × 1.1 Ma providing a snapshot of conditions prior to the EOT. We combine plant leaf wax hydrogen isotopic evidence paired with previously-published evidence from pollen assemblages from the marine core, and compare to results of climate model experiments. The pollen from late Eocene sediments of NBP0602A-3C indicate a Nothofagidites (southern beech) dominated landscape. In the same sediments, leaf wax hydrogen isotope (δDwax) values average -202×7‰ (1σ, n=22) for the C28 n-alkanoic acid. Based on an estimated net fractionation of -100‰, these values suggest paleoprecipitation δD values on the order of -118×8‰. The similarity between Late Eocene precipitation isotopic reconstructions (with no ice on what was then an island) and in situ modern isotopic values (while ice-covered) is surprising as ice-free conditions should imply warmer temperatures which would normally imply more enriched isotopic values. Convergent isotopic compositions during demonstrably different environments require a dynamical test to evaluate this validity of this isotopic result. In order to test the isotopic response to an expanding Antarctic ice sheet across the EOT, we conducted experiments with an isotope-enabled GCM. We simulated conditions before, during, and after the transition by systematically decreasing carbon dioxide levels from 1000 to 560 ppm while increasing ice volume to represent an ice-free to fully glaciated continent. Model experiments predict changes in vegetation cover from mixed forest to tundra biomes, reductions in austral summer temperature of 5-10 degrees C, reductions in precipitation of only ~0.5 mm/yr, and more negative precipitation δD values by ~25‰, broadly in keeping with proxy evidence. The model results confirm that the dramatic environmental change at the EOT would be represented by a relatively small magnitude isotopic shift in precipitation, at least at the tip of the Antarctic peninsula, where the proxy reconstruction from NBP0602A-3C is located. Isotopes in precipitation over the center of the continent are well known to be sensitive recorders of late Pleistocene environmental change, however longer sedimentary deposits are for the most part not preserved where the largest signals would be recorded. The combination of proxy and model evidence is particularly powerful for establishing robust regional environmental interpretations from single marine core proxy reconstructions, as well as for establishing the most sensitive locations to target for future drilling.

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

2016-04-01

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Multi-Method Provenance Analysis of Namibian Desert Sand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeesch, P.; Garzanti, E.

2014-12-01

Mineralogical, geochemical and geochronological provenance proxies each have their own strengths and weaknesses: a. Bulk geochemistry, framework petrography and heavy mineral compositions can differentiate between source areas characterised by different lithologies, but are sensitive to hydraulic sorting and chemical alteration. b. Detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology is insensitive to winnowing effects, but is 'blind' to lithologies devoid of zircon and cannot differentiate between first cycle and recycled sediments. c. Cosmogenic neon isotopes can be used to identify different generations of surface exposure while simultaneously tracking different magmatic sources. The challenge is then to combine these different proxies into a self consistent story, and do so in as objective a manner as possible. We here present a case study of Namibia's Namib Sand Sea and Skeleton Coast ergs, in which all the aforementioned methods have been combined using a three-way multidimensional scaling (aka INDividual Differences SCALing or INDSCAL) analysis: 1. Each of the datasets was represented by a 'dissimilarity matrix' of pairwise distances between samples. 2. The set of these matrices was fed into the INDSCAL algorithm, which produces two pieces of graphical output: the 'group configuration', which is a scatter plot or 'map' in which similar samples plot close together and dissimilar samples plot far apart, and the 'proxy weights', in which not the samples but the proxies are plotted according to the weight they attached to the 'group configuration' axes. The INDSCAL map of the Namibia dataset indicates that (a) long-shore drift of Orange River sediments dominates the coastal sediment compositions all along the Namibian coast until Angola, and (b) that light and heavy minerals tell complementary parts of the provenance story.

Multiple Types of Memory and Everyday Functional Assessment in Older Adults.

PubMed

Beaver, Jenna; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen

2017-06-01

Current proxy measures for assessing everyday functioning (e.g., questionnaires, performance-based measures, and direct observation) show discrepancies in their rating of functional status. The present study investigated the relationship between multiple proxy measures of functional status and content memory (i.e., memory for information), temporal order memory, and prospective memory in an older adult sample. A total of 197 community-dwelling older adults who did (n = 45) or did not meet (n = 152) criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), completed six different assessments of functional status (two questionnaires, two performance-based tasks, and two direct observation tasks) as well as experimental measures of content memory, prospective memory, and temporal order memory. After controlling for demographics and content memory, the temporal order and prospective memory measures explained a significant amount of variance in all proxy functional status measures. When all variables were entered into the regression analyses, content memory and prospective memory were found to be significant predictors of all measures of functional status, whereas temporal order memory was a significant predictor for the questionnaire and direct observation measures, but not performance-based measures. The results suggest that direct observation and questionnaire measures may be able to capture components of everyday functioning that require context and temporal sequencing abilities, such as multi-tasking, that are not as well captured in many current laboratory performance-based measures of functional status. Future research should aim to inform the development and use of maximally effective and valid proxy measures of functional ability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Advantages of Task-Specific Multi-Objective Optimisation in Evolutionary Robotics.

PubMed

Trianni, Vito; López-Ibáñez, Manuel

2015-01-01

The application of multi-objective optimisation to evolutionary robotics is receiving increasing attention. A survey of the literature reveals the different possibilities it offers to improve the automatic design of efficient and adaptive robotic systems, and points to the successful demonstrations available for both task-specific and task-agnostic approaches (i.e., with or without reference to the specific design problem to be tackled). However, the advantages of multi-objective approaches over single-objective ones have not been clearly spelled out and experimentally demonstrated. This paper fills this gap for task-specific approaches: starting from well-known results in multi-objective optimisation, we discuss how to tackle commonly recognised problems in evolutionary robotics. In particular, we show that multi-objective optimisation (i) allows evolving a more varied set of behaviours by exploring multiple trade-offs of the objectives to optimise, (ii) supports the evolution of the desired behaviour through the introduction of objectives as proxies, (iii) avoids the premature convergence to local optima possibly introduced by multi-component fitness functions, and (iv) solves the bootstrap problem exploiting ancillary objectives to guide evolution in the early phases. We present an experimental demonstration of these benefits in three different case studies: maze navigation in a single robot domain, flocking in a swarm robotics context, and a strictly collaborative task in collective robotics.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ISSUES IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN REGION

EPA Science Inventory

Mounting evidence from both instrumental and proxy records shows global climate continues to change. nalysis of near-surface temperatures over land and oceans during the past 130 years shows marked warming during the first half of this century with relatively steady temperatures ...

Holocene vegetation changes through Lac Ledro sediments (Trentino, Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannin, Sebastien; Vannière, Boris; Galop, Didier; Magny, Michel; Gilli, Adrian; Chapron, Emmanuel; Wirth, Stéfanie; Anselmetti, Flavio; Desmet, Marc

2010-05-01

Lake Ledro is part of the French program ANR LAMA (coordinators: M. Magny and N. Combourieu Nebout) which aims to link Holocene paleoenvironmental changes along a north-south transect in Italy. Lake Ledro (652 m a.s.l.; Trentino, north-eastern Italy) is the northward component of the transect. It is located on the southern slope of the Alps and its catchment area covers 131 km2 with mountains culminating at 1500-2000 m. A multi-proxy approach based on biotic and abiotic indicators (lake-level, palynology, geochemistry and geophysic) was developed from deep and littoral cores, including sediment sequences in Early and Middle Bronze Age lake-shore archaeological sites. We aim reconstructing paleoenvironmental changes resulting from both climate and anthropic influences trough the entire Holocene. A deep master core was built after extracting twin cores from a non disturbed sediment zone recognised by seismic-reflexion investigations. The age-depth model is based on 13 AMS 14C ages measured on terrestrial plant macrofossils and the mean temporal resolution for analyses is ca 60 years. Palynological study shows the usual vegetation succession for the southern slope of the Alps. During the first part of the Holocene, abrupt changes are observed in pollen assemblages in relation to changes in other proxies (XRF and Magnetic Susceptibility) and correlate with cold events associated to the deglaciation in the North-Atlantic area. Cool episodes corresponding to the PreBoreal Oscillation (ca 11.3 ka cal BP) and 8.2 ka event are respectively characterized by stopping afforestation and a strong development of Abies in the local ecosystem. During the second part of the Holocene, two declines of arboreal pollen abundance are observed in relation with occurrences in both cereal and anthropic pollen indicators. These two phases are confirmed by increase in soil erosion as indicated by abiotic proxies. They give evidence of two successive steps for human settlement (Early-Middle Bronze Age and Iron Age) separated by forest development. In addition, XRF data allow two successive distinct palaeohydrological periods to be recognized into the Holocene. Finally, comparison between littoral and deep cores reinforces our interpretation and helps to disentangle climate and anthropic influences on the Holocene environment in the Central Mediterranean region.

Geo-social media as a proxy for hydrometeorological data for streamflow estimation and to improve flood monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo-Estrada, Camilo; de Andrade, Sidgley Camargo; Abe, Narumi; Fava, Maria Clara; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; de Albuquerque, João Porto

2018-02-01

Floods are one of the most devastating types of worldwide disasters in terms of human, economic, and social losses. If authoritative data is scarce, or unavailable for some periods, other sources of information are required to improve streamflow estimation and early flood warnings. Georeferenced social media messages are increasingly being regarded as an alternative source of information for coping with flood risks. However, existing studies have mostly concentrated on the links between geo-social media activity and flooded areas. Thus, there is still a gap in research with regard to the use of social media as a proxy for rainfall-runoff estimations and flood forecasting. To address this, we propose using a transformation function that creates a proxy variable for rainfall by analysing geo-social media messages and rainfall measurements from authoritative sources, which are later incorporated within a hydrological model for streamflow estimation. We found that the combined use of official rainfall values with the social media proxy variable as input for the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), improved streamflow simulations for flood monitoring. The combination of authoritative sources and transformed geo-social media data during flood events achieved a 71% degree of accuracy and a 29% underestimation rate in a comparison made with real streamflow measurements. This is a significant improvement on the respective values of 39% and 58%, achieved when only authoritative data were used for the modelling. This result is clear evidence of the potential use of derived geo-social media data as a proxy for environmental variables for improving flood early-warning systems.

Distribution of biologic, anthropogenic, and volcanic constituents as a proxy for sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGann, Mary; Erikson, Li H.; Wan, Elmira; Powell, Charles; Maddocks, Rosalie F.; Barnard, P.L.; Jaffee, B.E.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2013-01-01

Although conventional sediment parameters (mean grain size, sorting, and skewness) and provenance have typically been used to infer sediment transport pathways, most freshwater, brackish, and marine environments are also characterized by abundant sediment constituents of biological, and possibly anthropogenic and volcanic, origin that can provide additional insight into local sedimentary processes. The biota will be spatially distributed according to its response to environmental parameters such as water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, organic carbon content, grain size, and intensity of currents and tidal flow, whereas the presence of anthropogenic and volcanic constituents will reflect proximity to source areas and whether they are fluvially- or aerially-transported. Because each of these constituents have a unique environmental signature, they are a more precise proxy for that source area than the conventional sedimentary process indicators. This San Francisco Bay Coastal System study demonstrates that by applying a multi-proxy approach, the primary sites of sediment transport can be identified. Many of these sites are far from where the constituents originated, showing that sediment transport is widespread in the region. Although not often used, identifying and interpreting the distribution of naturally-occurring and allochthonous biologic, anthropogenic, and volcanic sediment constituents is a powerful tool to aid in the investigation of sediment transport pathways in other coastal systems.

Noble Gas Proxy Evidence Of Holocene Climate Fluctuations In The Elwha Watershed, Olympic Mountains, Washington

EPA Science Inventory

Paleotempertures retrieved from the groundwater archives in the largest watershed (≈800 km2) in the Olympic Mountains suggest asynchronous Olympic Peninsula climate responses during the Everson interstade period after the last continental glacial maximum. Dissolved noble gases fr...

A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Burns, S. J.; Taylor, B. L.; Cruz, F. W.; Bird, B. W.; Abbott, M. B.; Kanner, L. C.; Cheng, H.; Novello, V. F.

2012-08-01

We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past ~2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative δ18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for δ18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Examining supply changes in Australia's cocaine market.

PubMed

Hughes, Caitlin E; Chalmers, Jenny; Bright, David A; Matthew-Simmons, Francis; Sindicich, Natasha

2012-05-01

Media attention to cocaine use and supply has increased following some of the largest cocaine seizures in Australia's history. Whether there has been an expansion in supply remains unclear. This paper examines the evidence behind assertions of increased supply in Australia and the scale and nature of any apparent increase, using proxy indicators of cocaine importation, distribution and use. Eight proxies of cocaine importation, distribution and use were adopted, including amount of importation, mode of importation and supply flows to Australia. Each proxy indicator was sourced using publicly available and Australia-wide data, including information on the total weight of border seizures, mode of detection and country of embarkation of individual seizures. Data permitting, trends were examined for up to a 12 year period (1997-1998 to 2009-2010). Since 2006-2007 there was evidence of increased cocaine importation, albeit less than between 1998-1999 and 2001-2002. There were further signs that the 2006-2007 expansion coincided with a diversification of trafficking routes to and through Australia (beyond the traditional site of entry-Sydney) and shifts in the geographic distribution of use. The congruity between indicators suggests that there has been a recent expansion in cocaine supply to and distribution within Australia, but that the more notable shift has concerned the nature of supply, with an apparent growth in importation and distribution beyond New South Wales. The diversification of cocaine supply routes may increase risks of market entrenchment and organised crime throughout Australia. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Associations between Resting, Activity, and Daily Metabolic Rate in Free-Living Endotherms: No Universal Rule in Birds and Mammals.

PubMed

Portugal, Steven J; Green, Jonathan A; Halsey, Lewis G; Arnold, Walter; Careau, Vincent; Dann, Peter; Frappell, Peter B; Grémillet, David; Handrich, Yves; Martin, Graham R; Ruf, Thomas; Guillemette, Magella M; Butler, Patrick J

2016-01-01

Energy management models provide theories and predictions for how animals manage their energy budgets within their energetic constraints, in terms of their resting metabolic rate (RMR) and daily energy expenditure (DEE). Thus, uncovering what associations exist between DEE and RMR is key to testing these models. Accordingly, there is considerable interest in the relationship between DEE and RMR at both inter- and intraspecific levels. Interpretation of the evidence for particular energy management models is enhanced by also considering the energy spent specifically on costly activities (activity energy expenditure [AEE] = DEE - RMR). However, to date there have been few intraspecific studies investigating such patterns. Our aim was to determine whether there is a generality of intraspecific relationships among RMR, DEE, and AEE using long-term data sets for bird and mammal species. For mammals, we use minimum heart rate (fH), mean fH, and activity fH as qualitative proxies for RMR, DEE, and AEE, respectively. For the birds, we take advantage of calibration equations to convert fH into rate of oxygen consumption in order to provide quantitative proxies for RMR, DEE, and AEE. For all 11 species, the DEE proxy was significantly positively correlated with the RMR proxy. There was also evidence of a significant positive correlation between AEE and RMR in all four mammal species but only in some of the bird species. Our results indicate there is no universal rule for birds and mammals governing the relationships among RMR, AEE, and DEE. Furthermore, they suggest that birds tend to have a different strategy for managing their energy budgets from those of mammals and that there are also differences in strategy between bird species. Future work in laboratory settings or highly controlled field settings can tease out the environmental and physiological processes contributing to variation in energy management strategies exhibited by different species.

The conceptualisation of health-related quality of life in decision-making by intensive care physicians: A qualitative inquiry.

PubMed

Haines, Dr Kimberley J; Remedios, Louisa; Berney, Sue C; Knott, Dr Cameron; Denehy, Linda

2017-05-01

To explore how intensive care physicians conceptualise and prioritise patient health-related quality of life in their decision-making. General qualitative inquiry using elements of Grounded Theory. Six ICU physicians participated. A large, closed, mixed ICU at a university-affiliated hospital, Australia. Three themes emerged: (1) Multi-dimensionality of HRQoL-HRQoL was described as difficult to understand; the patient was viewed as the best informant. Proxy information on HRQoL and health preferences was used to direct clinical care, despite not always being trusted. (2) Prioritisation of HRQoL within decision-making-this varied across the patient's health care trajectory. Premorbid HRQoL was prioritised when making admission decisions and used to predict future HRQoL. (3) Role of physician in decision-making-the physicians described their role as representing society with peers influencing their decision-making. All participants considered their practice to be similar to their peers, referring to their practice as the "middle of the road". This is a novel finding, emphasising other important influences in high-stakes decision-making. Critical care physicians conceptualised HRQoL as a multi-dimensional subjective construct. Patient (or proxy) voice was integral in establishing patient HRQoL and future health preferences. HRQoL was important in high stakes decision-making including initiating invasive and burdensome therapies or in redirecting therapeutic goals. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Critical Care Nurses Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconstructing Holocene palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Elinor; Andrén, Thomas; Ash, Jeanine; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Slomp, Caroline; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; van Helmond, Niels; Expedition 347 Science Party

2016-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past against the background of climate changes. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and its sediment records provide a unique opportunity to analyse palaeo-environmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. IODP Expedition 347 recovered an exceptional set of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea which allow high-resolution reconstructions in unprecedented quality. We present a comparison of commonly-used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt over the past ˜8000 years. Our aim is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations of individual proxies. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14Cdating, biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records, and sediment stratigraphy. Sedimentary organic carbon content and the bulk elemental composition have been measured, and can be used to determine the depositional environment and degree of oxygen depletion (e.g., Mo, Corg/Ptot). Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as a land/air-temperature proxy. Comparison with dinoflagellate cysts, insect remains, and green algae remains from the same samples provides a direct land-sea comparison. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets, including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Palynomorph analyses are therefore complemented with analyses of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), to reconstruct variations in Baltic Sea surface temperatures (SST). In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT). Benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C measurements (monospecific) and foraminifera and ostracod faunal assemblage analyses allow us to estimate bottom water salinity and environmental changes qualitatively and quantitatively. Low bottom water salinity (˜23 in bottom waters) and varying diagenesis in the Little Belt's organic-rich sediments complicates the application of benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca as a palaeotemperature proxy. Reliable bottom water temperatures, however, are reconstructed using clumped isotope analyses of mollusc material. In addition, diatoms and the diol index (DI) are analysed to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The results of this inter-proxy comparison study will be used to reconstruct gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

Reconstructing palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from IODP Site M0059 (Little Belt)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Thomas; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Cotterill, Carol

2015-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and hence provides a unique opportunity to analyse past changes. IODP Expedition 347 recovered a unique set of long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea Basin which allow new high-resolution reconstructions. The application of existing and development of new proxies in such a setting is complicated, as environmental changes often occur on much faster time scales with much larger variations. Therefore, we present a comparison of commonly used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14C dating and biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records. The aim of our study is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations for specific proxies. Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as land/air-temperature proxies. By comparison with dinoflagellate cysts and green algae remains from the same samples, a direct land-sea comparison is provided. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Chironomid remains are used where possible as indicators for surface water conditions during the warm season. Analyses of palynomorphs and chironomids are complemented with the analysis of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), which both allow reconstructing variation in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the Baltic Sea. In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) and the diol index (DI) to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The low salinity (25 psu) of the Little Belt is a potential limitation for several of the used proxies, which could lead to under-estimation of paleo-temperatures. To quantitatively and qualitatively estimate the impact of salinity, δ18O measurements (monospecific) and faunal assemblage analyses are performed on benthic foraminifera as well as ostracod faunal assemblages, which are especially sensitive to bottom water salinity changes. The results of this inter-comparison study will be useful for the reconstruction of gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

A Fifty-Year Coral Sr/Ca Time Series from Guam, Mariana Islands: In situ Monitoring and Comparison to Observed Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lander, M.

2016-12-01

Located on the northern edge of the West Pacific Warm Pool, Guam is positioned to obtain uniquely valuable natural records of west Pacific maritime paleoclimate. This study is the first to evaluate the application of the coral Sr/Ca sea surface temperature (SST) proxy to the reconstruction of Guam's climate history. To help test the fidelity of the coral Sr/Ca proxy to actual climate, and how it might be affected by environmental variables—on Guam or elsewhere—the study documented monthly seawater oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O), pH, cation, and nitrate concentrations from September 2009 to December 2010 at a Porites lutea colony in Guam's Apra Harbor. The study site was chosen for its accessibility, so that environmental conditions could be readily monitored. A 50-year Sr/Ca record was carefully compared to instrumental records, the quality and reliability of which were also closely examined. Time series of seawater δ18O, pH, and cation concentrations show some evidence of freshwater input from direct rainfall or stream discharge into the harbor. The Sr/Ca proxy SST results, however, are robust, and do not appear to have been significantly affected. The Sr/Ca proxy reproduces the long-term warming trend observed in the historical records of regional SST and local air temperature. Moreover, it shows remarkable fidelity to regional ocean-atmosphere variations as represented by the indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The consistency of the results with Guam's historical instrumental records, with previous δ18O results from Guam, and with previous Sr/Ca proxy results in similar environments elsewhere, demonstrate the efficacy of accessible near-shore sites for obtaining reliable Sr/Ca climate proxies, and the utility of Guam as a source for accurate coral records of western Pacific Ocean regional climate.

Climate-induced fluvial dynamics in tropical Africa around the last glacial maximum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangen, Mark; Neumann, Katharina; Eisenberg, Joachim

2011-11-01

The alluvia of the Ntem, Nyong and Sanaga fluvial systems in southern Cameroon recorded repeated fluvial activity fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene, including the last glacial maximum (LGM), the beginning of the African Humid Period and the northern hemispheric Bølling-Allerød. We applied a multi-proxy approach on alluvial stratigraphies dated between 22.4 and 13.0 cal ka BP, including remote sensing, sedimentological and morphogenetic methods, phytoliths, sponge spicules, 14C and δ 13C data. A distinct NE-SW gradient of landscape and fluvial dynamics around the LGM can be drawn, with evidence for the persistence of extended fluvial rainforest refuges only in the Ntem catchment. The Sanaga and Nyong catchment areas were characterized by frequent channel migrations, floodplain reorganization and unstable vegetation subject to fire, including grasslands, woodlands, and gallery forests with bamboo thickets. In spite of increasing rainfall after 16.4 cal ka BP, persisting landscape instability played the major role for fluvial system dynamics, floodplain transformations and vegetation development until 13.0 cal ka BP, before a general landscape stabilization and rainforest expansion set in at the beginning of the Holocene.

Millennial-scale variations in western Sierra Nevada precipitation during the last glacial cycle MIS 4/3 transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oster, Jessica L.; Montañez, Isabel P.; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Sharp, Warren D.; Stock, Greg M.; Spero, Howard J.; Tinsley, John; Zachos, James C.

2014-07-01

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles had far-reaching effects on Northern Hemisphere and tropical climate systems during the last glacial period, yet the climatic response to D-O cycles in western North America is controversial, especially prior to 55 ka. We document changes in precipitation along the western slope of the central Sierra Nevada during early Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 4 (55-67 ka) from a U-series dated speleothem record from McLean's Cave. The timing of our multi-proxy geochemical dataset is coeval with D-O interstadials (15-18) and stadials, including Heinrich Event 6. The McLean's Cave stalagmite indicates warmer and drier conditions during Greenland interstadials (GISs 15-18), signified by elevated δ18O, δ13C, reflectance, and trace element concentrations, and less radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr. Our record extends evidence of a strong linkage between high-latitude warming and reduced precipitation in western North America to early MIS 3 and MIS 4. This record shows that the linkage persists in diverse global climate states, and documents the nature of the climatic response in central California to Heinrich Event 6.

Multi-proxy dating the 'Millennium Eruption' of Changbaishan to late 946 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, Clive; Wacker, Lukas; Xu, Jiandong; Galván, Juan Diego; Stoffel, Markus; Guillet, Sébastien; Corona, Christophe; Sigl, Michael; Di Cosmo, Nicola; Hajdas, Irka; Pan, Bo; Breuker, Remco; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan; Fei, Jie; Hammond, James O. S.; Büntgen, Ulf

2017-02-01

Ranking among the largest volcanic eruptions of the Common Era (CE), the 'Millennium Eruption' of Changbaishan produced a widely-dispersed tephra layer (known as the B-Tm ash), which represents an important tie point for palaeoenvironmental studies in East Asia. Hitherto, there has been no consensus on its age, with estimates spanning at least the tenth century CE. Here, we identify the cosmogenic radiocarbon signal of 775 CE in a subfossil larch engulfed and killed by pyroclastic currents emplaced during the initial rhyolitic phase of the explosive eruption. Combined with glaciochemical evidence from Greenland, this enables us to date the eruption to late 946 CE. This secure date rules out the possibility that the Millennium Eruption contributed to the collapse of the Bohai Kingdom (Manchuria/Korea) in 926 CE, as has previously been hypothesised. Further, despite the magnitude of the eruption, we do not see a consequent cooling signal in tree-ring-based reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. A tightly-constrained date for the Millennium Eruption improves the prospect for further investigations of historical sources that may shed light on the eruption's impacts, and enhances the value of the B-Tm ash as a chronostratigraphic marker.

A 2500-yr late Holocene multi-proxy record of vegetation and hydrologic changes from a cave guano-clay sequence in SW Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onac, Bogdan P.; Hutchinson, Simon M.; Geantă, Anca; Forray, Ferenc L.; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Giurgiu, Alexandra M.; Coroiu, Ioan

2015-05-01

We provide sedimentological, geochemical, mineral magnetic, stable carbon isotope, charcoal, and pollen-based evidence from a guano/clay sequence in Gaura cu Muscă Cave (SW Romania), from which we deduced that from 1230 BC to AD 1240 climate oscillated between wet and dry. From 1230 BC to AD 1000 the climate was wetter than the present, prompting flooding of the cave, preventing bats from roosting, and resulting in a slow rate of clay accumulation. The second half of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was generally drier; the cave experienced occasional flash flooding in between which maternity bat roosts established in the cave. One extremely wet event occurred around AD 1170, when Fe/Mn and Ti/Zr ratios show the highest values coincident with a substantial increase of sediment load in the underground stream. The mineral magnetic characteristics for the second part of the MWP indicate the partial input of surface-sourced sediments reflecting agricultural development and forest clearance in the area. Pollen and microcharcoal studies confirm that the overall vegetation cover and human land use have not changed much in this region since the medieval times.

Timing of atmospheric precipitation in the Zagros Mountains inferred from a multi-proxy record from Lake Mirabad, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Lora R.; Ito, Emi; Schwalb, Antje; Wright, Herbert E.

2006-11-01

A sediment core 7.2 m long from Lake Mirabad, Iran, was examined for loss-on-ignition, mineralogy, oxygen-isotopic composition of authigenic calcite, and trace-element composition of ostracodes to complement earlier pollen and ostracode-assemblage studies. Pollen, ostracode-inferred lake level, and high Sr/Ca ratios indicate that the early Holocene (10000 to 6500 cal yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene. Low δ18O values during this interval are interpreted as resulting from winter-dominated precipitation, characteristic of a Mediterranean climate. Increasing δ18O values after 6500 cal yr BP signal a gradual increase in spring rains, which are present today. A severe 600-yr drought occurred at ca. 5500 cal yr BP, shortly after the transition from pistachio-almond to oak forest. During the late Holocene, two milder droughts occurred at about 1500 and 500 cal yr BP. Within the resolution of the record, no drought is evident during the collapse of the Akkadian empire (4200-3900 cal yr BP). Rather, a decrease in δ18O values to early-Holocene levels may indicate the return to a Mediterranean precipitation regime.

Munchausen syndrome by proxy in twins.

PubMed Central

Lee, D A

1979-01-01

A family is described in which twin infants had repeated admissions for apparent haemoptysis. It was proved that the mother was simulating these episodes and she eventually injured one of the children with a pin. The mother has subsequently shown some evidence of a Munchausen tendency in herself. PMID:507921

Collective Contexts in Conversation: Grounding by Proxy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eshghi, Arash; Healey, Patrick G. T.

2016-01-01

Anecdotal evidence suggests that participants in conversation can sometimes act as a coalition. This implies a level of conversational organization in which groups of individuals form a coherent unit. This paper investigates the implications of this phenomenon for psycholinguistic and semantic models of shared context in dialog. We present a…

Educational Disparities and Conflict: Evidence from Lebanon

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tfaily, Rania; Diab, Hassan; Kulczycki, Andrzej

2013-01-01

This article examines the impact of Lebanon's civil war (1975-1991) on disparities in education among the country's main religious sects and across various regions. District of registration is adopted as a proxy for religious affiliation through a novel, detailed classification to assess sectarian differentials by region and regional differentials…

Dowry and Intrahousehold Bargaining: Evidence from China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Philip H.

2009-01-01

This paper analyzes the relationship between a woman's intrahousehold bargaining position and her welfare within marriage using household data from rural China. Simultaneity problems are overcome by using dowry to proxy for bargaining position. Omitted variable bias is addressed by using grain shocks in the year preceding marriage as an instrument…

Luminescence signal profiling: a new proxy for sedimentologically "invisible" marine Mass Transport Deposits (MTDs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López, Gloria I.; Bialik, Or; Waldmann, Nicolas

2017-04-01

When dealing with fine-grained, organic-rich, colour-monotone, underwater marine sediment cores retrieved from the continental shelf or slope, the initial visual impression, upon split-opening the vessels, is often of a "disappointing" homogeneous, monotonous, continuous archive. Only after thorough, micro- to macro-scale, multi-parameter investigations the sediment reveals its treasures, initially by performing some measurements on the intact core itself, hence depicting for the first time its contents, and subsequently by carrying out the destructive, multi-proxy sample-based analyses. Usually, routine Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) measurements of petrophysical parameters (e.g. magnetic susceptibility, density, P-Wave velocity) on un-split sediment cores are the first undertaken while still on-board in the field or back at the laboratory. Less often done, but equally valuable, are continuous X-Ray and CT scan imaging of the same intact archives. Upon splitting, routine granulometry, micro- and macro-fossil and invertebrate identification, total organic / inorganic carbon content (TOC / TIC), amid other analyses take place. The geochronology component is also established usually by AMS 14C on selected organic-rich units, and less common is Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating used on the coarser-grained, siliciclastic layers. A relatively new tool used in Luminescence, the Portable OSL Reader, employed to rapidly assess the luminescence signal of untreated poly-mineral samples to assist with targeted field sampling for full OSL dating, was used for the first time in marine sediment cores as a novel petrophysical characterization tool with astonishing results. In this study, two 2 m-long underwater piston sediment cores recovered from 200 m depths on the continental shelf off-southern Israel, were subjected to pulsed-photon stimulation (PPSL) obtaining favourable luminescence signals along their entire lengths. Astoundingly, luminescence signals were obtained on both, already split-opened cores. Both cores depicted the monotonous characteristics of homogeneousness down-core as per most of the results obtained from the non-destructive and destructive tests. One of the cores showed several small higher energy events, including a Mass Transport Deposit (MTD) within its first 10 cm, only fully visible on the CT scan imaging, the PPSL profile and particle size distribution plot. This initial investigation demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of luminescence profiling as a new sedimentological and petrophysical proxy to better visualize homogeneous yet complex, fine-grained, underwater archives. Moreover, it helps to understand the continuity of the stratigraphy and linearity of deposition of the sediment, besides assisting on the estimation of relative ages provided that good OSL ages are obtained throughout the recovered archive.

The Sex and Race Specific Relationship between Anthropometry and Body Fat Composition Determined from Computed Tomography: Evidence from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Mongraw-Chaffin, Morgana; Golden, Sherita Hill; Allison, Matthew A; Ding, Jingzhong; Ouyang, Pamela; Schreiner, Pamela J; Szklo, Moyses; Woodward, Mark; Young, Jeffery Hunter; Anderson, Cheryl A M

2015-01-01

Few studies have investigated the relationship of anthropometric measurements with computed tomography (CT) body fat composition, and even fewer determined if these relationships differ by sex and race. CT scans from 1,851 participants in the population based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis were assessed for visceral and subcutaneous fat areas by semi-automated segmentation of body compartments. Regression models were used to investigate relationships for anthropometry with visceral and subcutaneous fat separately by sex and race/ethnicity. Participants were 50% female, 41% Caucasian, 13% Asian, 21% African American, and 25% Hispanic. For visceral fat, the positive relationship with weight (p = 0.028), waist circumference (p<0.001), waist to hip ratio (p<0.001), and waist to height ratio (p = 0.05) differed by sex, with a steeper slope for men. That is, across the range of these anthropometric measures the rise in visceral fat is faster for men than for women. Additionally, there were differences by race/ethnicity in the relationship with height (p<0.001), weight (p<0.001), waist circumference (p<0.001), hip circumference (p = 0.006), and waist to hip ratio (p = 0.001) with the Hispanic group having shallower slopes. For subcutaneous fat, interaction by sex was found for all anthropometric indices at p<0.05, but not for race/ethnicity. The relationship between anthropometry and underlying adiposity differs by sex and race/ethnicity. When anthropometry is used as a proxy for visceral fat in research, sex-specific models should be used.

The Sex and Race Specific Relationship between Anthropometry and Body Fat Composition Determined from Computed Tomography: Evidence from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

PubMed Central

Mongraw-Chaffin, Morgana; Golden, Sherita Hill; Allison, Matthew A.; Ding, Jingzhong; Ouyang, Pamela; Schreiner, Pamela J.; Szklo, Moyses; Woodward, Mark; Young, Jeffery Hunter; Anderson, Cheryl A. M.

2015-01-01

Background Few studies have investigated the relationship of anthropometric measurements with computed tomography (CT) body fat composition, and even fewer determined if these relationships differ by sex and race. Methods CT scans from 1,851 participants in the population based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis were assessed for visceral and subcutaneous fat areas by semi-automated segmentation of body compartments. Regression models were used to investigate relationships for anthropometry with visceral and subcutaneous fat separately by sex and race/ethnicity. Results Participants were 50% female, 41% Caucasian, 13% Asian, 21% African American, and 25% Hispanic. For visceral fat, the positive relationship with weight (p = 0.028), waist circumference (p<0.001), waist to hip ratio (p<0.001), and waist to height ratio (p = 0.05) differed by sex, with a steeper slope for men. That is, across the range of these anthropometric measures the rise in visceral fat is faster for men than for women. Additionally, there were differences by race/ethnicity in the relationship with height (p<0.001), weight (p<0.001), waist circumference (p<0.001), hip circumference (p = 0.006), and waist to hip ratio (p = 0.001) with the Hispanic group having shallower slopes. For subcutaneous fat, interaction by sex was found for all anthropometric indices at p<0.05, but not for race/ethnicity. Conclusion The relationship between anthropometry and underlying adiposity differs by sex and race/ethnicity. When anthropometry is used as a proxy for visceral fat in research, sex-specific models should be used. PMID:26448048

Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brohan, P.

2012-12-01

The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations - notable differences include large differences in multi-decadal variability between proxy reconstructions, and big uncertainties in the effect of volcanic eruptions. Because the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. By constraining key aspects of the reconstructions and simulations, instrumental observations, inevitably from a limited period, can reduce reconstruction uncertainty throughout the millennium. A considerable quantity of early instrumental observations are preserved in the world's archives. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East-India Company (EEIC), and 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure have been preserved in the British Library. Similar records from voyages of exploration and scientific investigation are preserved in published literature and the records in National Archives. Some of these records have been extracted and digitised, providing hundreds of thousands of new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5C). This provides a powerful out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions --- supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this --- such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

2017-12-01

We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the Central American isthmus resulting in an El Niño-like pattern accompanied by drying over the Maritime Continent - as seen in the proxy data. Together these results show a dominant role for altered tropical SST gradients driving changes in tropical rainfall, and a lesser role for inter-hemispheric shifts in the ITCZ.

Dry seasons identified in oak tree-ring chronology in the Czech Lands over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolny, Petr; Brazdil, Rudolf; Büntgen, Ulf; Rybnicek, Michal; Kolar, Tomas; Reznickova, Ladislava; Valasek, Hubert; Kotyza, Oldrich

2015-04-01

There is growing evidence on amplification of hydrological regimes as a consequence of rising temperatures, increase in evaporation and changes in circulation patterns. These processes may be responsible for higher probability of hydroclimatic extremes occurrence in regional scale. Extreme events such as floods or droughts are rare from their definition and for better understanding of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of their occurrence, long-term proxy archives may be analysed. Recently several tree ring width chronologies were compiled from hardwood species occurring in lowland positions and their analysis proved that they are moisture-sensitive and suitable for hydroclimate reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new oak (Quercus sp) ring width (RW) dataset for the Czech Republic and the last 1250 years. We explain the process of oak chronology standardization that was based on several only slightly different de-trending techniques and subsequent chronology development steps. We hypothesize that the most severe RW increment reductions (negative extremes) reflect extremely dry spring-summer conditions. Negative extremes were assigned for years in which transformed oak RWs were lower than the minus 1.5 standard deviation. To verify our hypothesis, we compare typical climatic conditions in negative extreme years with climatology of the reference period 1961-1990. Comparison was done for various instrumental measurements (1805-2012), existing proxy reconstructions (1500-1804) and also for documentary evidence from historical archives (before 1500). We found that years of negative extremes are characterized with distinctly above average spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) air temperatures and below average precipitation amounts. Typical sea level pressure spatial distribution in those years shows positive pressure anomaly over British Isles and Northern Sea, the pattern that synoptically corresponds to blocking anticyclone bringing to Central Europe warm air from SW and low precipitation totals with higher probability of drought occurrence. Our results provide consistent physical explanation of extremely dry seasons occurring in Central Europe. However, direct comparisons of individual RW extreme seasons with existing documentary evidence show the complexity the problem as some extremes identified in oak RW chronology were not confirmed in documentary archives and vice versa. We discuss possible causes of such differences related to the fact that various proxies may have problems to record real intensity or duration of extreme events e.g. due to non-linear response of proxy data to climate drivers or due to shift in seasonality.

The Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle (MIS 5-2) re-examined based on long proxy records from central and northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmens, Karin F.

2014-02-01

Current multi-proxy studies on a long sediment sequence preserved at Sokli (N Finland), i.e. in the central area of Fennoscandian glaciations, are drastically changing classic ideas of glaciations, vegetation and climate in northern Europe during the Late Pleistocene. The sediments in the Sokli basin have escaped major glacial erosion due to non-typical bedrock conditions. In this review, the Sokli record is compared in great detail with other long proxy records from central, temperate and northern, boreal Europe. These comprise the classic records of La Grande Pile (E France) and Oerel (N Germany) and more recently obtained records from Horoszki Duże (E Poland) and Lake Yamozero (NW Russia). The focus of the review is on pollen, lithology and macrofossil- and insect-based temperature inferences. The long records are further compared with recent proxy data from nearby terrestrial sites as well as with the rapidly accumulating high-resolution proxy data from the ocean realm. The comparison allows a re-examination of the environmental history and climate evolution of the Last Interglacial-Glacial (LI-G) cycle (MIS 5-2). It shows that environmental and climate conditions during MIS 5 (ca 130-70 ka BP) were distinctly different from those during MIS 4-2 (ca 70-15 ka BP). MIS 5 is characterized by three long forested intervals (broadly corresponding to MIS 5e, 5c, 5a), both in temperate and northern boreal Europe. These mild periods were interrupted by two short, relatively cold and dry intervals (MIS 5d and 5b) with mountain-centered glaciation in Fennoscandia. Millennial scale climate events were superimposed upon these longer lasting climate fluctuations. The time interval encompassing MIS 4-2 shows open vegetation. It is characterized by two glacial maxima (MIS 4 and 2) with sub-continental scale glaciation over northern Europe and dry conditions in strongly continental eastern European settings. High amplitude climate oscillations of millennial duration characterized the climate variability of MIS 3. Mild climate conditions in early MIS 3 caused large-scale deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, and ice-free conditions with Betula-dominated vegetation (including tree birch) persisted over large parts of Fennoscandia, possibly interrupted by glaciation, during major part of MIS 3 till ca 35 ka BP. Overall, MIS 5 was mostly mild with warmest or peak interglacial conditions at the very start during MIS 5e. MIS 4-2 was mostly cold with most extreme or peak glacial conditions in the closing phase during MIS 2. This points to a subdivision of the last climate cycle into an early, overall mild interglacial half and a late, overall cold glacial half, each with duration of ca 50 ka. This review also shows that the climate variability in central and northern Europe during the LI-G cycle was mostly in degrees of continentality with major shifts in winter temperature and precipitation values; summer temperatures, on the other hand, remained largely unchanged. It points to the waxing and waning of sea-ice over the North Atlantic Ocean as a possible characteristic feature of the Late Pleistocene. The present compilation, based on long terrestrial sequences, high-resolution multi-proxy data from the oceans, and quantified paleo-climate data, strongly favors a definition of entire Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 5 as the Last Interglacial similar as in the original marine stratigraphy and the stratigraphy at La Grande Pile in France. The proxy-based climate data places the start of the Last Glacial at the base of MIS 4 and the northwest European Pleniglacial. It shows that the division between the Eemian (MIS 5e) and the Early Weichselian (MIS 5d-a) is not useful, as not relevant from a climate point of view.

Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Büntgen, U.; D'Arrigo, R.; Petersen, A. C.

2010-06-01

Evidence has been found for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in a number of forests at high northern latitudes and alpine locations. Furthermore, at some of these sites, emergent subpopulations of trees show negative growth trends with rising temperature. These findings are typically referred to as the "Divergence Problem" (DP). Given the high relevance of paleoclimatic reconstructions for policy-related studies, it is important for dendrochronologists to address this issue of potential model uncertainties associated with the DP. Here we address this issue by proposing a calibration technique, termed "stochastic response function" (SRF), which allows the presence or absence of any instabilities in growth response of trees (or any other climate proxy) to their calibration target to be visualized and detected. Since this framework estimates confidence limits and subsequently provides statistical significance tests, the approach is also very well suited for proxy screening prior to the generation of a climate-reconstruction network. Two examples of tree growth/climate relationships are provided, one from the North American Arctic treeline and the other from the upper treeline in the European Alps. Instabilities were found to be present where stabilities were reported in the literature, and vice versa, stabilities were found where instabilities were reported. We advise to apply SRFs in future proxy-screening schemes, next to the use of correlations and RE/CE statistics. It will improve the strength of reconstruction hindcasts.

Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Büntgen, U.; D'Arrigo, R.; Petersen, A. C.

2010-02-01

Evidence has been found for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in a number of forests at high northern latitudes and alpine locations. Furthermore, at some of these sites, emergent subpopulations of trees show negative growth trends with rising temperature. These findings are typically referred to as the "Divergence Problem" (DP). Given the high relevance of paleoclimatic reconstructions for policy-related studies, it is important for dendrochronologists to address this issue of potential model uncertainties associated with the DP. Here we address this issue by proposing a calibration technique, termed "stochastic response function" (SRF), which allows the presence or absence of any instabilities in growth response of trees (or any other climate proxy) to their calibration target to be visualized and detected. Since this framework estimates confidence limits and subsequently provides statistical significance tests, the approach is also very well suited for proxy screening prior to the generation of a climate-reconstruction network. Two examples of tree growth/climate relationships are provided, one from the North American Arctic treeline and the other from the upper treeline in the European Alps. Instabilities were found to be present where stabilities were reported in the literature, and vice versa, stabilities were found where instabilities were reported. We advise to apply SRFs in future proxy-screening schemes, next to the use of correlations and RE/CE statistics. It will improve the strength of reconstruction hindcasts.

Variations in productivity and eolian fluxes in the northeastern Arabian Sea during the past 110 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, Ali; Marcantonio, Franco; Schulz, Hartmut

2004-04-01

High-resolution (one to two samples/ka) radionuclide proxy records from core 93KL in the northeastern Arabian Sea provide evidence for millennial climate variability over the past 110 ka. We interpret 230Th-normalized 232Th fluxes as a proxy for eolian input, and authigenic uranium concentrations as a proxy for past productivity. We attribute orbital and suborbital variations in both proxies to changes in the intensity of the southwest Indian Ocean monsoon. The highest 230Th-normalized 232Th fluxes occur at times that are consistent with the timing of the Younger Dryas, Heinrich events 1-7 and cold Dansgaard-Oeschger stadial events recorded in the GISP2 ice core. Such high dust fluxes may be due to a weakened southwest monsoon in conjunction with strengthened northwesterlies from the Arabian Peninsula and Mesopotamia. Authigenic uranium concentrations, on the other hand, are highest during warm Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials when the southwest monsoon is intensified relative to the northwesterly winds. Our results also indicate that on orbital timescales maximum average eolian fluxes coincide with the timing of marine isotopic stage (MIS) 2 and 4, while minimum fluxes occur during MIS 1, 3 and 5. Although the forcing mechanism(s) controlling suborbital variabilities in monsoonal intensity is still debated, our findings suggest an atmospheric teleconnection between the low-latitude southwest monsoon and North Atlantic climate.

Munchausen by proxy syndrome mimicking systemic autoinflammatory disease: case report and review of the literature.

PubMed

Wittkowski, Helmut; Hinze, Claas; Häfner-Harms, Sigrid; Oji, Vinzenz; Masjosthusmann, Katja; Monninger, Martina; Grenzebach, Ulrike; Foell, Dirk

2017-04-05

Systemic autoinflammatory diseases (SAIDs) represent a growing number of monogenic, polygenic or multifactorial disorders that are often difficult to diagnose. Here we report a patient who was initially erroneously diagnosed and treated for SAID. Symptoms consisted of recurrent fever, erythematous and/or blistering skin lesions, angioedema, susceptibility to bleeding, external ear infections and reversible anisocoria in the absence of laboratory evidence of systemic inflammation. After two and a half years of extensive diagnostic work-up and multiple empirical therapies, a final diagnosis of Munchausen by proxy syndrome (MBPS) was established. The diagnosis of SAID needs to be carefully reassessed if measurable systemic inflammation is missing, and MBPS should be included in the differential diagnosis.

[Munchausen by proxy syndrome].

PubMed

Depauw, A; Loas, G; Delhaye, M

2015-01-01

The Munchausen syndrome by proxy (MSBP) was first described in 1977 by the English paediatrician Roy Meadow. The MSBP is an extremely complicated diagnosis because of the difficulty in finding the incriminating evidence of its existence and because of the ethical issue it raises for caregivers. Its implications from a medical, psychological and legal point of view raise difficult questions for any professional confronted to it. In this article we will first present the case of a 16-year-old teenager who had been bedridden in hospital for a year, before an atypical form of MSBP was finally diagnosed, after a stay in a child and adolescent psychiatry unit. We will then discuss this case in light of a literature review on the MSBP.

Geochemical signatures of tsunami deposits - what do they tell us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chague-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James R.

2010-05-01

In the last two and half decades, but even more since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT), there has been a significant increase in the amount of literature dealing with recent, historical and palaeotsunamis. Much has been written and debated about the diagnostic criteria of historical and palaeotsunami deposits. Most of the diagnostic criteria or proxies used reflect the expertise of the researchers involved and thus tend to be biased towards sedimentology, stratigraphy and micropalaeontology, with some reference to geomorphology, archaeology, anthropology and palynology. It should however be noted that all criteria have never been reported from one site, and neither are they all found in one single deposit. Thus, the lack of one or more proxies should not be taken as unique evidence to refute the tsunamigenic origin of a specific deposit. Although geochemical signatures have long been used as indicators for palaeosalinity in sedimentary sequences, there appears to have been some reluctance to use them to help in the identification of historical and palaeotsunami deposits. Like other proxies, geochemistry alone may not provide a definite answer to the origin of a deposit. Furthermore, poor preservation due to environmental conditions or as a result of post-diagenetic processes, might complicate the interpretation of geochemical signatures left by tsunami inundation. Similar taphonomic problems are also faced for microfossil proxies. However, geochemistry provides another piece to the puzzle, and together with other proxies, it can help identify palaeotsunami deposits. Geochemical signatures can also provide clues about the landward limit of runup of a tsunami, beyond the area of sediment deposition. This was recently documented following the 2004 IOT and the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. A summary of examples of geochemical signatures recorded in interstitial water and sediment of recent, historical and palaeotsunami deposits is presented.

Fossil bryophytes as recorders of ancient CO2 levels: Experimental evidence and a Cretaceous case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, Benjamin J.; Beerling, David J.; Brentnall, Stuart J.; Royer, Dana L.

2005-09-01

Biological and geochemical CO2 proxies provide critical constraints on understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 in driving climate change during Earth history. As no single existing CO2 proxy is without its limitations, there is a clear need for new approaches to reconstructing past CO2 concentrations. Here we develop a new pre-Quaternary CO2 proxy based on the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of astomatous land plants. In a series of CO2-controlled laboratory experiments, we show that the carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) of a range of bryophyte (liverwort and moss) species increases with atmospheric CO2 across the range 375 to 6000 ppm. Separate experiments establish that variations in growth temperature, water content and substrate type have minor impacts on the Δ13C of liverworts but not mosses, indicating the greater potential of liverworts to faithfully record past variations in CO2. A mechanistic model for calculating past CO2 concentrations from bryophyte Δ13C (White et al., 1994) is extended and calibrated using our experimental results. The potential for fossil liverworts to record past CO2 changes is investigated by analyzing the δ13C of specimens collected from Alexander Island, Antarctica dating to the "greenhouse" world of the mid-Cretaceous. Our analysis and isotopic model yield mid-Cretaceous CO2 concentrations of 1000-1400 ppm, in general agreement with independent proxy data and long-term carbon cycle models. The exceptionally long evolutionary history of bryophytes offers the possibility of reconstructing CO2 concentrations back to the mid-Ordovician, pre-dating all currently used quantitative CO2 proxies.

Validating the use of scintillation proxies to study ionospheric scintillation over the Ugandan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amabayo, Emirant B.; Jurua, Edward; Cilliers, Pierre J.

2015-06-01

In this study, we compare the standard scintillation indices (S4 and σΦ) from a SCINDA receiver with scintillation proxies (S4p and | sDPR |) derived from two IGS GPS receivers. Amplitude (S4) and phase (σΦ) scintillation data were obtained from the SCINDA installed at Makerere University (0.34°N, 32.57°E). The corresponding amplitude (S4p) and phase (| sDPR |) scintillation proxies were derived from data archived by IGS GPS receivers installed at Entebbe (0.04°N, 32.44°E) and Mbarara (0.60°S, 30.74°E). The results show that for most of the cases analysed in this study, σΦ and | sDPR | are in agreement. Amplitude scintillation occurrence estimated using the S4p are fairly consistent with the standard S4, mainly between 17:00 UT and 21:00 UT, despite a few cases of over and under estimation of scintillation levels by S4p. Correlation coefficients between σΦ and the | sDPR | proxy revealed positive correlation. Generally, S4p and S4 exhibits both moderate and strong positive correlation. TEC depletions associated with equatorial plasma bubbles are proposed as the cause of the observed scintillation over the region. These equatorial plasma bubbles were evident along the ray paths to satellites with PRN 2, 15, 27 and 11 as observed from MBAR and EBBE. In addition to equatorial plasma bubbles, atmospheric gravity waves with periods similar to those of large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were also observed as one of the mechanisms for scintillation occurrence. The outcome of this study implies that GPS derived scintillation proxies can be used to quantify scintillation levels in the absence of standard scintillation data in the equatorial regions.

Connecting optical and X-ray tracers of galaxy cluster relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Ian D.; Parker, Laura C.; Hlavacek-Larrondo, Julie

2018-04-01

Substantial effort has been devoted in determining the ideal proxy for quantifying the morphology of the hot intracluster medium in clusters of galaxies. These proxies, based on X-ray emission, typically require expensive, high-quality X-ray observations making them difficult to apply to large surveys of groups and clusters. Here, we compare optical relaxation proxies with X-ray asymmetries and centroid shifts for a sample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey clusters with high-quality, archival X-ray data from Chandra and XMM-Newton. The three optical relaxation measures considered are the shape of the member-galaxy projected velocity distribution - measured by the Anderson-Darling (AD) statistic, the stellar mass gap between the most-massive and second-most-massive cluster galaxy, and the offset between the most-massive galaxy (MMG) position and the luminosity-weighted cluster centre. The AD statistic and stellar mass gap correlate significantly with X-ray relaxation proxies, with the AD statistic being the stronger correlator. Conversely, we find no evidence for a correlation between X-ray asymmetry or centroid shift and the MMG offset. High-mass clusters (Mhalo > 1014.5 M⊙) in this sample have X-ray asymmetries, centroid shifts, and Anderson-Darling statistics which are systematically larger than for low-mass systems. Finally, considering the dichotomy of Gaussian and non-Gaussian clusters (measured by the AD test), we show that the probability of being a non-Gaussian cluster correlates significantly with X-ray asymmetry but only shows a marginal correlation with centroid shift. These results confirm the shape of the radial velocity distribution as a useful proxy for cluster relaxation, which can then be applied to large redshift surveys lacking extensive X-ray coverage.

Advantages of Task-Specific Multi-Objective Optimisation in Evolutionary Robotics

PubMed Central

Trianni, Vito; López-Ibáñez, Manuel

2015-01-01

The application of multi-objective optimisation to evolutionary robotics is receiving increasing attention. A survey of the literature reveals the different possibilities it offers to improve the automatic design of efficient and adaptive robotic systems, and points to the successful demonstrations available for both task-specific and task-agnostic approaches (i.e., with or without reference to the specific design problem to be tackled). However, the advantages of multi-objective approaches over single-objective ones have not been clearly spelled out and experimentally demonstrated. This paper fills this gap for task-specific approaches: starting from well-known results in multi-objective optimisation, we discuss how to tackle commonly recognised problems in evolutionary robotics. In particular, we show that multi-objective optimisation (i) allows evolving a more varied set of behaviours by exploring multiple trade-offs of the objectives to optimise, (ii) supports the evolution of the desired behaviour through the introduction of objectives as proxies, (iii) avoids the premature convergence to local optima possibly introduced by multi-component fitness functions, and (iv) solves the bootstrap problem exploiting ancillary objectives to guide evolution in the early phases. We present an experimental demonstration of these benefits in three different case studies: maze navigation in a single robot domain, flocking in a swarm robotics context, and a strictly collaborative task in collective robotics. PMID:26295151

A multi-proxy record of MIS 11-12 deglaciation and glacial MIS 12 instability from the Sulmona basin (central Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regattieri, Eleonora; Giaccio, Biagio; Galli, Paolo; Nomade, Sebastien; Peronace, Edoardo; Messina, Paolo; Sposato, Andrea; Boschi, Chiara; Gemelli, Maurizio

2016-01-01

A multi-proxy record (lithology, XRF, CaCO3 content, carbonate δ18O and δ13C) was acquired from a sediment core drilled in the intermountain Sulmona basin (central Italy). Tephrostratigraphic analyses of three volcanic ash layers ascribe the investigated succession to the MIS 12-MIS 11 period, spanning the interval ca. 500-410 ka. Litho-pedo facies assemblage indicates predominant lacustrine deposition, interrupted by a minor sub-aerial and lake low stand episode. Variations in major and minor elements concentrations are related to changes in the clastic input to the lake. The oxygen isotopic composition of carbonate (δ18Oc) intervals is interpreted mainly as a proxy for the amount of precipitation in the high-altitude catchment of the karst recharge system. The record shows pronounced hydrological variability at orbital and millennial time-scales, which appears closely related to the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation pattern and replicates North Atlantic and west Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fluctuations. The MIS 12 glacial inception is marked by an abrupt reduction of precipitation, lowering of the lake level and enhanced catchment erosion. A well-defined and isotopically prominent interstadial with increased precipitation maybe related to insolation maxima-precession minima at ca. 465 ka. This interstadial ends abruptly at ca. 457 ka and it is followed by a phase of strong short-term instability. Drastic lake-level lowering and enhanced clastic flux characterized the MIS 12 glacial maximum. Lacustrine deposition restarted about 440 ka ago. The MIS 12-MIS 11 transition is characterized by a rapid increase in the precipitation, lake-level rise and reduction in the clastic input, interrupted by a short and abrupt return to drier conditions. Comparison with marine records from the Iberian margin and western Mediterranean suggests that major events of ice rafted debris deposition, related to southward migrations of the polar front, match the harshest periods in central Italy. This indicates strong teleconnections between Northern hemisphere ice sheet dynamics, North Atlantic oceanic conditions and Mediterranean continental hydrology.

Half-precessional climate forcing of Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics on the East African equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verschuren, D.; Sinninghe Damste, J. S.; Moernaut, J.; Kristen, I.; Fagot, M.; Blaauw, M.; Haug, G. H.; Project Members, C.

2008-12-01

The EuroCLIMATE project CHALLACEA produced a detailed multi-proxy reconstruction of the climate history of equatorial East Africa, based on the sediment record of Lake Challa, a 4.2 km2, 92-m deep crater lake on the lower East slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Kenya/Tanzania). Relatively stable sedimentation dynamics over the past 25,000 years resulted in a unique combination of high temporal resolution, excellent radiometric (210Pb, 14C) age control, and confidence that recording parameters of the climatic proxy signals extracted from the sediment have remained constant through time. The equatorial (3 deg. S) location of our study site in East Africa, where seasonal migration of convective activity spans the widest latitude range worldwide, produced unique information on how varying rainfall contributions from the northeasterly and southeasterly Indian Ocean monsoons shaped regional climate history. The Challa proxy records for temperature (TEX86) and moisture balance (reflection-seismic stratigraphy and the BIT index of soil bacterial input) uniquely weave together tropical climate variability at orbital and shorter time scales. The temporal pattern of reconstructed moisture balance bears the clear signature of half- precessional insolation forcing of Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics, modified by northern-latitude influence on moisture-balance variation at millennial and century time scales. During peak glacial time (but not immediately before) and the Younger Dryas, NH ice sheet influences overrode local insolation influence on monsoon intensity. After the NH ice sheets had melted and a relatively stable interglacial temperature regime developed, precession-driven summer insolation became the dominant determinant of regional moisture balance, with anti-phased patterns of Holocene hydrological change in the northern and southern (sub)tropics, and a uniquely hybrid pattern on the East African equator. In the last 2-3000 years a series of multi-century droughts with links to high latitude climate variability exerted widespread influence across the African continent. In northern and western tropical Africa these drought episodes accentuated the late- Holocene drying trend; in southern tropical Africa they mitigated or aborted the trend to increasing monsoon rainfall prescribed by SH insolation forcing.

Evidence of a prolonged drought ca. 4200 yr BP correlated with prehistoric settlement abandonment from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave, N-Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, J.; Kherbouche, F.; Genty, D.; Blamart, D.; Cheng, H.; Dewilde, F.; Hachi, S.; Edwards, L. R.; Régnier, E.; Michelot, J.-L.

2015-07-01

Middle Holocene cultures have been widely studied round the E-Mediterranean basin in the last 30 years and past cultural activities have been commonly linked with regional climate changes. However, in many cases such linkage is equivocal, in part due to existing climatic evidence that has been derived from areas outside the distribution of ancient settlements, leading to uncertainty from complex spatial heterogeneity in both climate and demography. A few high-resolution well-dated paleoclimate records were recently established using speleothems in the Central and E-Mediterranean basin, however, the scarcity of such records in the western part of the Mediterranean prevents us from correlating past climate evolutions across the basin and deciphering climate-culture relation at fine time scales. Here we report the first decadal-resolved Mid-Holocene climate proxy records from the W-Mediterranean basin based on the stable carbon and oxygen isotopes analyses of two U/Th dated stalagmites from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave in N-Algeria. Comparison of our records with those from Italy and Israel reveals synchronous (multi) centennial dry phases centered at ca. 5600, ca. 5200 and ca. 4200 yr BP across the Mediterranean basin. New calibrated radiocarbon dating constrains reasonably well the age of rich anthropogenic deposits (e.g., faunal remains, pottery, charcoal) excavated inside the cave, which allows the comparison between in situ evidence of human occupation and of climate change. This approach shows that the timing of a prolonged drought at ca. 4400-3800 yr BP blankets the onset of cave abandonment shortly after ca. 4403 cal yr BP, supporting the hypothesis that a climate anomaly may have played a role in this cultural disruption.

Evidence of a prolonged drought ca. 4200 yr BP correlated with prehistoric settlement abandonment from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave, Northern Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, J.; Kherbouche, F.; Genty, D.; Blamart, D.; Cheng, H.; Dewilde, F.; Hachi, S.; Edwards, R. L.; Régnier, E.; Michelot, J.-L.

2016-01-01

Middle Holocene cultures have been widely studied around the Eastern-Mediterranean basin in the last 30 years and past cultural activities have been commonly linked with regional climate changes. However, in many cases such linkage is equivocal, in part due to existing climatic evidence that has been derived from areas outside the distribution of ancient settlements, leading to uncertainty from complex spatial heterogeneity in both climate and demography. A few high-resolution well-dated paleoclimate records were recently established using speleothems in the Central and Eastern-Mediterranean basin, however, the scarcity of such records in the western part of the Mediterranean prevents us from correlating past climate evolutions across the basin and deciphering climate-culture relation at fine timescales. Here we report the first decadal-resolved Mid-Holocene climate proxy records from the Western-Mediterranean basin based on the stable carbon and oxygen isotopes analyses of two U/Th dated stalagmites from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave in Northern Algeria. Comparison of our records with those from Italy and Israel reveals synchronous (multi) centennial dry phases centered at ca. 5600, ca. 5200 and ca. 4200 yr BP across the Mediterranean basin. New calibrated radiocarbon dating constrains reasonably well the age of rich anthropogenic deposits (e.g., faunal remains, pottery, charcoal) excavated inside the cave, which allows the comparison between in situ evidence of human occupation and of climate change. This approach shows that the timing of a prolonged drought at ca. 4400-3800 yr BP blankets the onset of cave abandonment shortly after ca. 4403 cal yr BP, supporting the hypothesis that a climate anomaly may have played a role in this cultural disruption.

Late Pleistocene (MIS5-3) environmental reconstruction from north-eastern Iberia through microvertebrate and palaeobotanical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allue, Ethel; Bennàssar, Maria; Biltekin, Demet; Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Burjachs, Francesc; Euba, Itxaso; Expósito, Isabel; Fernández-García, Mónica; López-García, Juan Manuel

2014-05-01

The aim of this work is to analyze the environmental changes during the Late Pleistocene on the basis of a multi-approach study based on natural and archaeological deposits from NE Iberian Peninsula. The focussed area, although having a small extension (some 32.000 square kilometres), covers a large range of ecosystems and bioclimatic conditions from the Mediterranean seashore to the summit of the Pyrenean mountain ranges (up to 2000 masl). This synthetical approach includes materials from various contexts including 10 archaeological deposits and a single natural deposit. In this work, plant (pollen and charcoals) and animal (small mammals, amphibians and reptiles) records are being analysed and compared in order to present an overview of the environmental changes occurred from the MIS5 to MIS3. On the first hand, we are using the small-vertebrate records recovered from archaeological deposits. These proxies are mainly the product of pellets from birds of prey and are key ecological markers. On the second hand, palaeobotanical evidences, pollen and charcoal, have different formation processes. Charcoal remains are mostly from archaeological deposits and are due to human activities related to fire showing evidences of the local vegetation. Pollen evidences from archaeological and natural contexts are deposited through natural processes (wind, insects, etc.) and show regional scale vegetation record. Results indicate the presence of temperate elements during all these periods (especially at the seashore area), with a more important representation and extension southwards or changes in altitude from taxa with eurosiberian affinities during coldest periods. Forest coverage, plant and vertebrate distribution along the territory point out a mosaic landscape formed by open areas and forests. These landscapes have probably a more or less Mediterranean or Eurosiberian character depending on the climatic moment and their location with variations along the sequence.

Solar System Chaos and its climatic and biogeochemical consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, M.; Tada, R.; Ozaki, K.; Olsen, P. E.

2017-12-01

Insolation changes caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters are the main driver of climatic variations, whose pace has been used for astronomically-calibrated geologic time scales of high accuracy to understand Earth system dynamics. However, the astrophysical models beyond several tens of million years ago have large uncertainty due to chaotic behavior of the Solar System, and its impact on amplitude modulation of multi-Myr-scale orbital variations and consequent climate changes has become the subject of debate. Here we show the geologic constraints on the past chaotic behavior of orbital cycles from early Mesozoic monsoon-related records; the 30-Myr-long lake level records of the lacustrine sequence in Newark-Hartford basins (North America) and 70-Myr-long biogenic silica (BSi) burial flux record of pelagic deep-sea chert sequence in Inuyama area (Japan). BSi burial flux of chert could be considered as proportional to the dissolved Si (DSi) input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi ( 100 kyr), because chert could represent a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (Ikeda et al., 2017).These geologic records show multi-Myr cycles with similar frequency modulations of eccentricity solution of astronomical model La2010d (Laskar et al., 2011) compared with other astronomical solutions, but not exactly same. Our geologic records provide convincing evidence for the past chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System and new and challenging additional constraints for astrophysical models. In addition, we find that ˜10 Myr cycle detected in monsoon proxies and their amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr cycle may be related to the amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr eccentricity cycle through non-linear process(es) of Earth system dynamics, suggesting possible impact of the chaotic behavior of Solar planets on climate change. Further impact of multi-Myr orbital cycles on global biogeochemical cycles will be discussed.

Groundwater and Terrestrial Water Storage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; Chambers, Don P.; Famiglietti, James S.

2012-01-01

Groundwater is a vital resource and also a dynamic component of the water cycle. Unconfined aquifer storage is less responsive to short term weather conditions than the near surface terrestrial water storage (TWS) components (soil moisture, surface water, and snow). However, save for the permanently frozen regions, it typically exhibits a larger range of variability over multi-annual periods than the other components. Groundwater is poorly monitored at the global scale, but terrestrial water storage (TWS) change data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are a reasonable proxy for unconfined groundwater at climatic scales.

Family factors in end-of-life decision-making: family conflict and proxy relationship.

PubMed

Parks, Susan Mockus; Winter, Laraine; Santana, Abbie J; Parker, Barbara; Diamond, James J; Rose, Molly; Myers, Ronald E

2011-02-01

Few studies have examined proxy decision-making regarding end-of-life treatment decisions. Proxy accuracy is defined as whether proxy treatment choices are consistent with the expressed wishes of their index elder. The purpose of this study was to examine proxy accuracy in relation to two family factors that may influence proxy accuracy: perceived family conflict and type of elder-proxy relationship. Telephone interviews with 202 community-dwelling elders and their proxy decision makers were conducted including the Life-Support Preferences Questionnaire (LSPQ), and a measure of family conflict, and sociodemographic characteristics, including type of relationship. Elder-proxy accuracy was associated with the type of elder-proxy relationship. Adult children demonstrated the lowest elder-proxy accuracy and spousal proxies the highest elder-proxy accuracy. Elder-proxy accuracy was associated with family conflict. Proxies reporting higher family conflict had lower elder-proxy accuracy. No interaction between family conflict and relationship type was revealed. Spousal proxies were more accurate in their substituted judgment than adult children, and proxies who perceive higher degree of family conflict tended to be less accurate than those with lower family conflict. Health care providers should be aware of these family factors when discussing advance care planning.

Mid Holocene Evidence of High Energy Events in the Geological Record: Sedimentary Deposits from Cauvery Delta Coast, SE Coast of India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karthikeyan, A.; Seshachalam, S.; Jonathan, M. P.; Roy, P. D.

2014-12-01

The Cauvery Basin is one of the important sedimentary basins of southern India and provides information on geological processes since the Cretaceous. Most of the studies in the basin have been carried out on the sediments representing Cretaceous with less emphasis on the Quaternary period with marine high energy event. In the present study, we present the sedimentological and micro fauna assemblages in the 150 cm long trench from the Kameshwaram village, Nagapattinam District, South East Coast of India, in order to reconstruct the past event. OSL and Carbon dating of sand layer sediments from the Cauvery Basin provide the first proxy-record of marine event from the region over the Mid Holocene. A multi proxy approach using trench sediments from Cauvery Delta Coast, East coast of Tamil Nadu provides a high resolution record of high energy event. The dating of the event layer indicates 6 and 8 kyrs also below the layer shell layer was preserved, the radio carbon date of the shell layer was 6545 BC. A combination of sedimentological parameters of grain size, sorting, geochemical analysis (XRF) of Fe, Mn, Ti, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sr, Zr and foraminifera species like Ammonia beccarri, Ammonia dentate and Asterorotalia trispinosa were identified. The sediment layers have thinning-up sequences and it starts from 130 cm to the bottom of the layer 150 cm which included shell debris, and rip-up clasts. In addition, characteristic variations in elemental content at the bottom units of Zr, Ti, Ca is showing higher concentration, which is an indicator of high-energy depositional event often associated with an increase in Ti (2.08 % to 16.016 %) and Sr (116 ppm to 275 ppm). Ca on the other hand suggests a marine influence and Fe, Mn, Cr, Ni values are showing lower concentration indicating that the high marine energy event had inundated the Nagapattinam district in SE coast of India. Based on the multiproxy evidences, we conclude that this could be a major marine event during the Mid Holocene period in this region, which is being studied in detail in other parts of the coastal region in SE coast of India.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gogou, Alexandra; Triantaphyllou, Maria; Xoplaki, Elena; Izdebski, Adam; Parinos, Constantine; Dimiza, Margarita; Bouloubassi, Ioanna; Luterbacher, Juerg; Kouli, Katerina; Martrat, Belen; Toreti, Andrea; Fleitmann, Dominik; Rousakis, Gregory; Kaberi, Helen; Athanasiou, Maria; Lykousis, Vasilios

2016-03-01

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ∼2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ΑD 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gogou, Alexandra; Triantaphyllou, Maria; Xoplaki, Elena; Izdebski, Adam; Parinos, Constantine; Dimiza, Margarita; Bouloubassi, Ioanna; Luterbacher, Juerg; Kouli, Katerina; Martrat, Belen; Toreti, Andrea; Fleitmann, Dominik; Rousakis, Gregory; Kaberi, Helen; Athanasiou, Maria; Lykousis, Vasilios

2016-04-01

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 2 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2°C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ΑD 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The palaeoclimatic evidence derived from M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

What Happens when Sea Ice Retreats, Peatlands Form, and a Landbridge Drowns? A Molecular View of the Last Deglacial from the Pacific-Arctic Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocis, J. J.; Petsch, S.; Castañeda, I. S.; Brigham-Grette, J.

2014-12-01

Arctic peatlands and thermokarst lakes (TK) are thought to play a significant role in changing atmospheric methane concentration (AMC) during the last deglacial. However, there is debate concerning timing of their initiation and extent they drove variations in AMC. Models show sea ice cover (SIC) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can also play a significant role. Yet, changes in peatland/TK lake areal extent in response to those dynamics as continental shelves were submerged are often not considered. To examine such connections, we report on molecular proxies in marine records that reveal change in terrestrial organic matter (TOM) export, SIC, and SSTs as sea levels rose during the last 18 ka in the Pacific-Arctic Gateway. Here, TOM input to the ocean was tracked by measuring the flux of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, n-alkyl lipids, and pentacyclic triterpenoids. SIC and SSTs were reconstructed using modern calibrations of highly branched isoprenoid alkene abundances in surface sediments from the Bering and Chukchi Seas. SSTs were also reconstructed based on the relative abundance of isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers. Our sediment records reveal increased flux of TOM coincides with peatland/TK lake initiation, reduced SIC (~20%), and warmer SSTs (~4°C) as AMC increased during the Bølling-Allerød (BA). Terrestrial flux dramatically reduced as SIC increased (~50%) and SSTs cooled as AMC fell during the Younger Dryas. Most notably, TOM export rapidly rebounds as AMC abruptly rose throughout the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), when SSTs warmed by ~3°C and SIC diminished and peatland areal extent increased. Using multi-proxy evidence in combination with a simple model that accounts for submergence of peatland/TK lake area, we estimate that the exposed Beringian shelf emitted an amount of CH4 comparable to previously reported peatland emissions in Alaska during the BA and HTM. The GDGT-based methane index (MI) was <0.3 throughout our sediment records, suggesting destabilized marine gas hydrates were not the principal source of methane. Results of our study provide novel marine-based evidence for the timing of peatland and TK lake initiation and the role sea ice played in contributing to variations in AMC during deglacial sea level rise in the Arctic.

New carbon-isotope evidence from the Polish Basin for a major carbon-cycle perturbation at the Triassic-Jurassic Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pointer, Robyn; Hesselbo, Stephen; Littler, Kate; Pieńkowski, Grzegorz; Hodbod, Marta

2016-04-01

Carbon-isotope analysis of fossil plant material from a Polish core provides new evidence of a perturbation to the atmospheric carbon-cycle at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary (~201 Ma). The Triassic-Jurassic boundary was a time of extreme climate change which also coincided with the end-Triassic mass extinction. The new data will allow us to identify climatic changes in the Polish Basin across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and evaluate these changes on a broader scale by comparison to data from other sites located around the world. The Niekłan borehole core, located in the southern Polish Basin, provides a ~200 metre-long terrestrial record spanning the Rhaetian and Hettangian, including the Triassic-Jurassic boundary (~208-199 Ma). The Niekłan core consists of interbedded fluvial and lacustrine sediments containing preserved plant material and thus provides an excellent opportunity to study both terrestrial palaeoenvironmental changes in the Polish Basin and perturbations in the carbon-cycle more broadly. Carbon-isotope analysis of macrofossil plant material and microscopic woody phytoclasts from the Niekłan core reveals a negative carbon-isotope excursion (CIE) of ~-3‰ at the end of the Rhaetian, before a gradual return to more positive values thereafter. The negative CIE suggests an injection of isotopically-light carbon into the atmosphere occurred just before the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. Likely sources of this carbon include volcanogenic gases, methane released from gas hydrates, or a combination of the two. The negative CIE seen in plant material at Niekłan is also recorded in a variety of geological materials from contemporaneous sites world-wide. These time-equivalent, but geographically separated, records indicate that the negative CIE recorded in the Niekłan plant material is the result of a regional or global carbon-cycle perturbation and is not merely a local signal. Future work will focus on using a range of palaeoenvironmental proxies in order to produce a detailed record of climate change at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary to complement the new fossil plant carbon-isotope record from the Niekłan core. A new, detailed, multi-proxy record from the Polish Basin will allow us to quantify the climate changes occurring in the basin across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary.

fiReproxies: A computational model providing insight into heat-affected archaeological lithic assemblages.

PubMed

Sorensen, Andrew C; Scherjon, Fulco

2018-01-01

Evidence for fire use becomes increasingly sparse the further back in time one looks. This is especially true for Palaeolithic assemblages. Primary evidence of fire use in the form of hearth features tends to give way to clusters or sparse scatters of more durable heated stone fragments. In the absence of intact fireplaces, these thermally altered lithic remains have been used as a proxy for discerning relative degrees of fire use between archaeological layers and deposits. While previous experimental studies have demonstrated the physical effects of heat on stony artefacts, the mechanisms influencing the proportion of fire proxy evidence within archaeological layers remain understudied. This fundamental study is the first to apply a computer-based model (fiReproxies) in an attempt to simulate and quantify the complex interplay of factors that ultimately determine when and in what proportions lithic artefacts are heated by (anthropogenic) fires. As an illustrative example, we apply our model to two hypothetical archaeological layers that reflect glacial and interglacial conditions during the late Middle Palaeolithic within a generic simulated cave site to demonstrate how different environmental, behavioural and depositional factors like site surface area, sedimentation rate, occupation frequency, and fire size and intensity can, independently or together, significantly influence the visibility of archaeological fire signals.

fiReproxies: A computational model providing insight into heat-affected archaeological lithic assemblages

PubMed Central

Scherjon, Fulco

2018-01-01

Evidence for fire use becomes increasingly sparse the further back in time one looks. This is especially true for Palaeolithic assemblages. Primary evidence of fire use in the form of hearth features tends to give way to clusters or sparse scatters of more durable heated stone fragments. In the absence of intact fireplaces, these thermally altered lithic remains have been used as a proxy for discerning relative degrees of fire use between archaeological layers and deposits. While previous experimental studies have demonstrated the physical effects of heat on stony artefacts, the mechanisms influencing the proportion of fire proxy evidence within archaeological layers remain understudied. This fundamental study is the first to apply a computer-based model (fiReproxies) in an attempt to simulate and quantify the complex interplay of factors that ultimately determine when and in what proportions lithic artefacts are heated by (anthropogenic) fires. As an illustrative example, we apply our model to two hypothetical archaeological layers that reflect glacial and interglacial conditions during the late Middle Palaeolithic within a generic simulated cave site to demonstrate how different environmental, behavioural and depositional factors like site surface area, sedimentation rate, occupation frequency, and fire size and intensity can, independently or together, significantly influence the visibility of archaeological fire signals. PMID:29768454

Spontaneous eye blink rate and dopamine synthesis capacity: preliminary evidence for an absence of positive correlation.

PubMed

Sescousse, Guillaume; Ligneul, Romain; van Holst, Ruth J; Janssen, Lieneke K; de Boer, Femke; Janssen, Marcel; Berry, Anne S; Jagust, William J; Cools, Roshan

2018-05-01

Dopamine is central to a number of cognitive functions and brain disorders. Given the cost of neurochemical imaging in humans, behavioural proxy measures of dopamine have gained in popularity in the past decade, such as spontaneous eye blink rate (sEBR). Increased sEBR is commonly associated with increased dopamine function based on pharmacological evidence and patient studies. Yet, this hypothesis has not been validated using in vivo measures of dopamine function in humans. To fill this gap, we measured sEBR and striatal dopamine synthesis capacity using [ 18 F]DOPA PET in 20 participants (nine healthy individuals and 11 pathological gamblers). Our results, based on frequentist and Bayesian statistics, as well as region-of-interest and voxel-wise analyses, argue against a positive relationship between sEBR and striatal dopamine synthesis capacity. They show that, if anything, the evidence is in favour of a negative relationship. These results, which complement findings from a recent study that failed to observe a relationship between sEBR and dopamine D2 receptor availability, suggest that caution and nuance are warranted when interpreting sEBR in terms of a proxy measure of striatal dopamine. © 2018 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience published by Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Palaeolimnological evidence of vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl (Austria) toward climate related changes since the last "vanished-lake" stage.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolotti, Monica; Milan, Manuela; Boscaini, Adriano; Soja, Gerhard; Herzig, Alois

2013-04-01

The palaeolimnological reconstruction of secular evolution of Euroepan Lakes with key socio-economical relevance respect to large (climate change) and local scale (land use, tourism) environmental changes, represents one of the objectives of the project EuLakes (European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors, Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change, Reg. N. 2CE243P3), launched in 2010 within the Central European Inititiative. The project consortium comprises lakes of different morphology and prevalent human uses, including the meso-eutrophic Lake Neusiedl, the largest Austrian lake (total area 315 km2), and the westernmost shallow (mean depth 1.2 m) steppe lake of the Euro-Asiatic continent. The volume of Lake Neusiedl can potentially change over the years, in relation with changing balance between atmospheric precipitation and lake water evapotranspiration. Changing water budget, together with high lake salinity and turbidity, have important implications over the lake ecosystem. This contribution illustrates results of the multi-proxi palaeolimnological reconstruction of ecologial changes occurred in Lake Neusiedl during the last ca. 140 years, i.e. since the end of the last "vanished-lake" stage (1865-1871). Geochemical and biological proxies anticipate the increase in lake productivity of ca. 10 years (1950s) respect to what reported in the literature. Diatom species composition indicate a biological lake recovery in the late 1980s, and suggest a second increment in lake productivity since the late 1990s, possibly in relation with the progressive increase in the nitrogen input from agriculture. Abundance of diatoms typical of brackish waters indicated no significant long-term change in lake salinity, while variations in species toleranting dessiccation confirm the vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl toward climate-driven changes in the lake water balance. This fragility is aggravated by the the semi-arid climate conditions of the catchemnt area. Biodiversity changes, pollution, agricultural and touristic over-exploitation represent further risk factors.

Opportunistic Feeding Strategy for the Earliest Old World Hypsodont Equids: Evidence from Stable Isotope and Dental Wear Proxies

PubMed Central

Tütken, Thomas; Kaiser, Thomas M.; Vennemann, Torsten; Merceron, Gildas

2013-01-01

Background The equid Hippotherium primigenium, with moderately hypsodont cheek teeth, rapidly dispersed through Eurasia in the early late Miocene. This dispersal of hipparions into the Old World represents a major faunal event during the Neogene. The reasons for this fast dispersal of H. primigenium within Europe are still unclear. Based on its hypsodonty, a high specialization in grazing is assumed although the feeding ecology of the earliest European hipparionines within a pure C3 plant ecosystem remains to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings A multi-proxy approach, combining carbon and oxygen isotopes from enamel as well as dental meso- and microwear analyses of cheek teeth, was used to characterize the diet of the earliest European H. primigenium populations from four early Late Miocene localities in Germany (Eppelsheim, Höwenegg), Switzerland (Charmoille), and France (Soblay). Enamel δ13C values indicate a pure C3 plant diet with small (<1.4‰) seasonal variations for all four H. primigenium populations. Dental wear and carbon isotope compositions are compatible with dietary differences. Except for the Höwenegg hipparionines, dental microwear data indicate a browse-dominated diet. By contrast, the tooth mesowear patterns of all populations range from low to high abrasion suggesting a wide spectrum of food resources. Conclusions/Significance Combined dental wear and stable isotope analysis enables refined palaeodietary reconstructions in C3 ecosystems. Different H. primigenium populations in Europe had a large spectrum of feeding habits with a high browsing component. The combination of specialized phenotypes such as hypsodont cheek teeth with a wide spectrum of diet illustrates a new example of the Liem’s paradox. This dietary flexibility associated with the capability to exploit abrasive food such as grasses probably contributed to the rapid dispersal of hipparionines from North America into Eurasia and the fast replacement of the brachydont equid Anchitherium by the hypsodont H. primigenium in Europe. PMID:24040254

Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayliffe, Linda K.; Bird, Michael I.; Gagan, Michael K.; Isdale, Peter J.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Parker, Bruce; Griffin, David; Nongkas, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2004-12-01

A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977-1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5-1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ18O, δ13C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982-1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean-atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by ˜1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.

Historical droughts in northern Vietnam captured by variability in speleothem δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardt, B. F.; McGee, D.; Burns, S. J.; Hieu, N.; Hieu, D. T.

2015-12-01

Speleothem records overlapping with the historical period offer valuable comparisons of documentary evidence with speleothem proxy data. These records provide opportunities to 'ground-truth' the paleo-record, fill in gaps in the historical record, and more confidently extent the paleo-record into deeper time. Here we present isotopic results from a stalagmite collected in northern Vietnam spanning 1200 to 1950 CE, a period with a rich historical record in Vietnam. This sample adds significantly to the relatively sparse paleoclimate record from Southeast Asia. The record includes several multi-decadal positive excursions of ≥1 per mille in calcite δ18O. A preliminary age model, based on six U/Th ages, suggests possible correspondence to noted droughts from the historical record, including the Angkor Droughts, the Ming Dynasty Drought, the Strange Parallels Drought, and the Victorian Holocaust Drought. As modeling studies indicate a strong correlation between rainfall δ18O and both the intensity of summer monsoon winds and summer rainfall over northern Vietnam (e.g., Liu et al., 2014), these excursions are consistent with a decrease in regional precipitation. The Vietnam record shows an overall negative trend during the Little Ice Age. The study site is located well south of the westerly wind belt, ruling out a shift between monsoonal and mid-latitude circulation systems as a likely explanation for the northern Vietnam record. We explore the correspondence between our record and other proxy data from Southeast Asia and suggest possible implications of the differences between Vietnamese and Chinese speleothem records during the Little Ice Age. References cited: Liu Z., Wen X., Brady E. C., Otto-Bliesner B., Yu G., Lu H., Cheng H., Wang Y., Zheng W., Ding Y., Edwards R. L., Cheng J., Liu W. and Yang H. (2014) Chinese cave records and the East Asia Summer Monsoon. Quaternary Science Reviews 83, 115-128.

Global Tsunami Database: Adding Geologic Deposits, Proxies, and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocko, V. R.; Varner, J.

2007-12-01

A result of collaboration between NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES), the Global Tsunami Database includes instrumental records, human observations, and now, information inferred from the geologic record. Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data, historical reports, and information gleaned from published tsunami deposit research build a multi-faceted view of tsunami hazards and their history around the world. Tsunami history provides clues to what might happen in the future, including frequency of occurrence and maximum wave heights. However, instrumental and written records commonly span too little time to reveal the full range of a region's tsunami hazard. The sedimentary deposits of tsunamis, identified with the aid of modern analogs, increasingly complement instrumental and human observations. By adding the component of tsunamis inferred from the geologic record, the Global Tsunami Database extends the record of tsunamis backward in time. Deposit locations, their estimated age and descriptions of the deposits themselves fill in the tsunami record. Tsunamis inferred from proxies, such as evidence for coseismic subsidence, are included to estimate recurrence intervals, but are flagged to highlight the absence of a physical deposit. Authors may submit their own descriptions and upload digital versions of publications. Users may sort by any populated field, including event, location, region, age of deposit, author, publication type (extract information from peer reviewed publications only, if you wish), grain size, composition, presence/absence of plant material. Users may find tsunami deposit references for a given location, event or author; search for particular properties of tsunami deposits; and even identify potential collaborators. Users may also download public-domain documents. Data and information may be viewed using tools designed to extract and display data from the Oracle database (selection forms, Web Map Services, and Web Feature Services). In addition, the historic tsunami archive (along with related earthquakes and volcanic eruptions) is available in KML (Keyhole Markup Language) format for use with Google Earth and similar geo-viewers.

Effectiveness of Strict vs. Multiple Use Protected Areas in Reducing Tropical Forest Fires: A Global Analysis Using Matching Methods

PubMed Central

Nelson, Andrew; Chomitz, Kenneth M.

2011-01-01

Protected areas (PAs) cover a quarter of the tropical forest estate. Yet there is debate over the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation, especially when local people have rights to use the forest. A key analytic problem is the likely placement of PAs on marginal lands with low pressure for deforestation, biasing comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Using matching techniques to control for this bias, this paper analyzes the global tropical forest biome using forest fires as a high resolution proxy for deforestation; disaggregates impacts by remoteness, a proxy for deforestation pressure; and compares strictly protected vs. multiple use PAs vs indigenous areas. Fire activity was overlaid on a 1 km map of tropical forest extent in 2000; land use change was inferred for any point experiencing one or more fires. Sampled points in pre-2000 PAs were matched with randomly selected never-protected points in the same country. Matching criteria included distance to road network, distance to major cities, elevation and slope, and rainfall. In Latin America and Asia, strict PAs substantially reduced fire incidence, but multi-use PAs were even more effective. In Latin America, where there is data on indigenous areas, these areas reduce forest fire incidence by 16 percentage points, over two and a half times as much as naïve (unmatched) comparison with unprotected areas would suggest. In Africa, more recently established strict PAs appear to be effective, but multi-use tropical forest protected areas yield few sample points, and their impacts are not robustly estimated. These results suggest that forest protection can contribute both to biodiversity conservation and CO2 mitigation goals, with particular relevance to the REDD agenda. Encouragingly, indigenous areas and multi-use protected areas can help to accomplish these goals, suggesting some compatibility between global environmental goals and support for local livelihoods. PMID:21857950

A late Holocene record of solar-forced atmospheric blocking variability over Northern Europe inferred from varved lake sediments of Lake Kuninkaisenlampi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarni, Saija; Muschitiello, Francesco; Weege, Stefanie; Brauer, Achim; Saarinen, Timo

2016-12-01

This study presents a new varved lake sediment sequence from Lake Kuninkaisenlampi, Eastern Finland. The record is constituted by alternations of clastic and biogenic laminae and provides a precise chronology extending back to 3607 ± 94 varve yrs. BP. The seasonality of the boreal climatic zone, with cold winters and mild summers, is reflected in the varve structure as a succession of three laminae from bottom to top, (i) a coarse to fine-grained detrital lamina marked by detrital catchment material transported by spring floods; (ii) a biogenic lamina with diatoms, plant and insect remnants reflecting biological productivity during the season of lake productivity; and (iii) a very fine amorphous organic lamina deposited during the winter stratification. The thickness of the detrital lamina in the lake reflects changes in the rate of spring snow melt in the catchment and is, therefore, considered a proxy for winter conditions. Hence, the record allows reconstructing local climate and environmental conditions on inter-annual to the multi-centennial timescales. We find that minerogenic accumulation reflected in the detrital lamina exhibits a high multi-decadal to centennial-scale spectral coherency with proxies for solar activity, such as Δ14C, and Total Solar Irradiance, suggesting a strong link between solar variability and sediment transport to the lake basin. Increased catchment erosion is observed during periods of low solar activity, which we ascribe to the development of more frequent atmospheric winter blocking circulation induced by solar-forced changes in the stratosphere. We suggest that soil frost in the catchment of Lake Kuninkaisenlampi related to more frequent winter blocking led to increased surface run-off and ultimately to increased catchment erosion during spring. We conclude that, during the past ca 3600 years, solar forcing may have modulated multi-decadal to centennial variations in sedimentation regimes in lakes from Eastern Finland and potentially in other North European lakes.

Reconstructing Environmental Change Using Lake Varves as a Climate Proxy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dempsey, Christopher; Bodzin, Alec; Cirucci, Lori; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors describe an investigative activity in which their eighth-grade students reconstructed past environmental change in the New England area using data from lake varves in central Vermont to examine evidence of climate change. The investigation uses an authentic paleoclimate record (Ridge 2011) from the Pleistocene epoch,…

Understanding and (Dis)trusting Food Assurance Schemes: Consumer Confidence and the "Knowledge Fix"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eden, Sally; Bear, Christopher; Walker, Gordon

2008-01-01

This paper uses evidence from focus groups with consumers in England to consider how consumers understand and evaluate a range of proxies or intermediary organisations that offer assurance about food and consumer products, particularly voluntary certification schemes. This addresses the current concern in developed economies about providing…

Health disparities in chickenpox or shingles in Alberta?

PubMed

Russell, M L; Schopflocher, D P; Svenson, L W

2008-01-01

Exploring for evidence of socio-economic health disparities in chickenpox and shingles in Alberta, Canada. Chickenpox and shingles cases were identified from administrative data from Alberta's universal health care insurance system for 1994-2002. Incident cases were those with the earliest dated utilization of a health service (chickenpox: ICD9-CM 052/ICD10-CA B01; shingles: ICD9-CM 053/ ICD10-CA B02). Crude and age-specific rates were estimated for each year by an indicator of socio-demographic status based upon the nature of the payer and eligibility for health care premium subsidy (SES-proxy) for the provincial health care insurance system. Among young children there is a gradient of disparity in chickenpox rates prior to the year in which publicly funded vaccination programs were implemented. After this point, disparities decline but less so for First Nations children than for others. There was no evidence of disparity by SES-proxy for shingles. Publicly funded vaccination programs may effectively contribute to reduction in disease disparities for vaccine-preventable diseases. Further study is required to ascertain why disparities continue for First Nations children.

The Crvenka loess-paleosol sequence (Vojvodina, Northern Serbia)- a record of continuous domination of the Late Pleistocene grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markovic, Slobodan; Sümegi, Pál; Stevens, Thomas; Obreht, Igor; Chu, Wei; Buggle, Björn; Zech, Michael; Zech, Roland; Hambach, Ulrich; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Zeeden, Christian; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Svircev, Zorica

2016-04-01

In this study we present a comparison of two independent paleo-environmental evidences: novel n-alkane biomarkers and traditional land snails assemblages, associated with widely used proxy records such as the low field magnetic susceptibility, grain size and various isotopic and geochemical indices. These paleo-environmental proxy records provide evidence for the continued predominance of the different grassland vegetation types during the entire Late Pleistocene. The results presented in this study highlight the spatial differences in the environmental conditions during the Late Pleistocene across the European loess belt. Contrary to other European loess provinces characterized by high diversity of the Late Pleistocene environments (ranging from tundra-like to deciduous forest habitats), our investigations indicate a continued dominance of grassland-dominated ecosystems in the southeastern Carpathian Basin. This uninterrupted presence of Late Pleistocene grassland zone in the southeastern part of the Carpathian Basin may have played an important role in the preservation of exceptional biodiversity of the Balkan region, as well as in the migration of anatomically modern humans into Europe.

Ecological neighborhoods as a framework for umbrella species selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2018-01-01

Umbrella species are typically chosen because they are expected to confer protection for other species assumed to have similar ecological requirements. Despite its popularity and substantial history, the value of the umbrella species concept has come into question because umbrella species chosen using heuristic methods, such as body or home range size, are not acting as adequate proxies for the metrics of interest: species richness or population abundance in a multi-species community for which protection is sought. How species associate with habitat across ecological scales has important implications for understanding population size and species richness, and therefore may be a better proxy for choosing an umbrella species. We determined the spatial scales of ecological neighborhoods important for predicting abundance of 8 potential umbrella species breeding in Nebraska using Bayesian latent indicator scale selection in N-mixture models accounting for imperfect detection. We compare the conservation value measured as collective avian abundance under different umbrella species selected following commonly used criteria and selected based on identifying spatial land cover characteristics within ecological neighborhoods that maximize collective abundance. Using traditional criteria to select an umbrella species resulted in sub-maximal expected collective abundance in 86% of cases compared to selecting an umbrella species based on land cover characteristics that maximized collective abundance directly. We conclude that directly assessing the expected quantitative outcomes, rather than ecological proxies, is likely the most efficient method to maximize the potential for conservation success under the umbrella species concept.

Multi-proxy reconstructions and the power of integration across marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, B.

2013-12-01

Over the past decade, dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) techniques have been increasingly applied to growth increments of various bivalve, fish, and coral species. In particular, the use of crossdating ensures that all increments in a dataset have assigned the correct calendar year of formation and that the resulting chronology is exactly placed in time. Such temporal alignment facilitates direct comparisons among chronologies that span diverse taxa and ecosystems, illustrating the pervasive, synchronizing influence of climate from alpine forests to the continental slope. Such an approach can be particularly beneficial to reconstructions in that each species captures climate signals from its unique 'perspective' of life history and habitat. For example, combinations of tree-ring data and chronologies for the long-lived bivalve Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa) capture substantially more variance in regional sea surface temperatures than either proxy could explain alone. Just as importantly, networks of chronologies spanning multiple trophic levels can help identify climate variables critical to ecosystem functioning, which can then be targeted to generate most biologically relevant reconstructions possible. Along the west coast of North America, fish and bivalve chronologies in combination with records of seabird reproductive success indicate that winter sea-level pressure is closely associated with California Current productivity, which can be hind-cast over the past six centuries using coastal tree-ring chronologies. Thus, multiple proxies not only increase reconstruction skill, but also help isolate climate variables most closely linked to ecosystem structure and functioning.

Multi-proxy reconstructions and the power of integration across marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, P. J.

2011-12-01

Over the past decade, dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) techniques have been increasingly applied to growth increments of various bivalve, fish, and coral species. In particular, the use of crossdating ensures that all increments in a dataset have assigned the correct calendar year of formation and that the resulting chronology is exactly placed in time. Such temporal alignment facilitates direct comparisons among chronologies that span diverse taxa and ecosystems, illustrating the pervasive, synchronizing influence of climate from alpine forests to the continental slope. Such an approach can be particularly beneficial to reconstructions in that each species captures climate signals from its unique 'perspective' of life history and habitat. For example, combinations of tree-ring data and chronologies for the long-lived bivalve Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa) capture substantially more variance in regional sea surface temperatures than either proxy could explain alone. Just as importantly, networks of chronologies spanning multiple trophic levels can help identify climate variables critical to ecosystem functioning, which can then be targeted to generate most biologically relevant reconstructions possible. Along the west coast of North America, fish and bivalve chronologies in combination with records of seabird reproductive success indicate that winter sea-level pressure is closely associated with California Current productivity, which can be hind-cast over the past six centuries using coastal tree-ring chronologies. Thus, multiple proxies not only increase reconstruction skill, but also help isolate climate variables most closely linked to ecosystem structure and functioning.

Lake ecosystem response to late Allerød climatic fluctuation (northern Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Słowiński, Michał; Zawiska, Izabela; Ott, Florian; Noryśkiewicz, Agnieszka M.; Plessen, Birgit; Apolinarska, Karina; Lutyńska, Monika; Michczyńska, Danuta J.; Wulf, Sabine; Skubała, Piotr; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Brauer, Achim

2014-05-01

The aim of this study is a better understanding, how local lake ecosystems responded to climate changes during the late Allerød - Younger Dryas transition. Therefore, we carried out a detailed high-resolution multi-proxy case study on the partly laminated sediments from the Trzechowskie palaeolake, located in the Pomeranian Lakeland, northern Poland (53°52'40"N, 18°12'93"E). We reconstructed the ecosystem response to climatic and environmental changes using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, Cladocera, diatoms) and classical geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition, CaCO3 content) in combination with high-resolution µ-XRF element core scanning. The core chronology has been established by biostratigraphy, AMS 14C-dating on plant macro remains, varve counting within the laminated intervals and the Laacher See Tephra (12880 varve yrs BP) as a precise isochrone. Framework of our investigation is a period covering 367 varve years of the late Allerød and the beginning of the Younger Dryas period where varve preservation gradually ceases. The pronounced changes at the late Allerød - Younger Dryas transition is well-reflected in all environmental indicators but with conspicuous leads and lags reflecting complex responses of lake ecosystems to climate variation. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute ICLEA (Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis) funded by the Helmholtz Association. The research was supported by the National Science Centre Poland (grants No. NN 306085037 and NCN 2011/01/B/ST10/07367).

Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Douglas, Peter M J; Affek, Hagit P; Ivany, Linda C; Houben, Alexander J P; Sijp, Willem P; Sluijs, Appy; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark

2014-05-06

Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at similar latitudes, with SSTs above 20 °C in the southwest Pacific contrasting with SSTs between 5 and 15 °C in the South Atlantic. Validation of this zonal temperature difference has been impeded by uncertainties inherent to the individual paleotemperature proxies applied at these sites. Here, we present multiproxy data from Seymour Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, that provides well-constrained evidence for annual SSTs of 10-17 °C (1σ SD) during the middle and late Eocene. Comparison of the same paleotemperature proxy at Seymour Island and at the East Tasman Plateau indicate the presence of a large and consistent middle-to-late Eocene SST gradient of ∼7 °C between these two sites located at similar paleolatitudes. Intermediate-complexity climate model simulations suggest that enhanced oceanic heat transport in the South Pacific, driven by deep-water formation in the Ross Sea, was largely responsible for the observed SST gradient. These results indicate that very warm SSTs, in excess of 18 °C, did not extend uniformly across the Eocene southern high latitudes, and suggest that thermohaline circulation may partially control the distribution of high-latitude ocean temperatures in greenhouse climates. The pronounced zonal SST heterogeneity evident in the Eocene cautions against inferring past meridional temperature gradients using spatially limited data within given latitudinal bands.

Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures

PubMed Central

Douglas, Peter M. J.; Affek, Hagit P.; Ivany, Linda C.; Houben, Alexander J. P.; Sijp, Willem P.; Sluijs, Appy; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark

2014-01-01

Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at similar latitudes, with SSTs above 20 °C in the southwest Pacific contrasting with SSTs between 5 and 15 °C in the South Atlantic. Validation of this zonal temperature difference has been impeded by uncertainties inherent to the individual paleotemperature proxies applied at these sites. Here, we present multiproxy data from Seymour Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, that provides well-constrained evidence for annual SSTs of 10–17 °C (1σ SD) during the middle and late Eocene. Comparison of the same paleotemperature proxy at Seymour Island and at the East Tasman Plateau indicate the presence of a large and consistent middle-to-late Eocene SST gradient of ∼7 °C between these two sites located at similar paleolatitudes. Intermediate-complexity climate model simulations suggest that enhanced oceanic heat transport in the South Pacific, driven by deep-water formation in the Ross Sea, was largely responsible for the observed SST gradient. These results indicate that very warm SSTs, in excess of 18 °C, did not extend uniformly across the Eocene southern high latitudes, and suggest that thermohaline circulation may partially control the distribution of high-latitude ocean temperatures in greenhouse climates. The pronounced zonal SST heterogeneity evident in the Eocene cautions against inferring past meridional temperature gradients using spatially limited data within given latitudinal bands. PMID:24753570

Environmental and Physiological Influences on the TEX86 Proxy: Results from Continuous Culture Studies and Stable Carbon Isotope Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, A.; Hurley, S.; Elling, F. J.; Koenneke, M.; Santoro, A. E.; Buchwald, C.; Wankel, S. D.; Hinrichs, K. U.; Zhang, Y.; Shah Walter, S. R.

2015-12-01

Membrane lipids of marine Archaea - known as GDGTs - are the basis of the TEX86 sea surface temperature (SST) paleoproxy. GDGTs are ubiquitous in marine sediments, and their broad distribution and high preservation potential have led to an ever-increasing use of TEX86. The planktonic Thaumarchaeota that are believed to be the major sources of GDGTs to marine sediments are autotrophic nitrifiers, assimilating carbon directly from dissolved CO2. Therefore the δ13C values of GDGTs additionally provide information about the DIC system and paleoproductivity. However, as for all biological proxies, understanding the physiology and biochemistry of the responsible organisms is essential to understanding how the proxies work. From this perspective, the TEX86-SST proxy is uniquely perplexing: How is it possible that multiple approaches to calibration show a good correlation between TEX86 and SSTs, when maximum activity of Thaumarchaeota is near and below the base of the photic zone? Here we show data from two studies that help address this question. Analyses of GDGT δ13C values show that the dominant GDGT flux to sediments is not from the sea surface. The data are measured on intact GDGTs purified by orthogonal dimensions of HPLC, followed by measurement of δ13C values on a Spooling Wire Microcombustion (SWiM)-IRMS with 1σ precision of ±0.2‰ and accuracy of ±0.3‰. Using this approach, we confirm that GDGTs, generally around -19.0‰ to -18.5‰, are isotopically "heavy" compared to other marine lipids, and that crenarchaeol in particular is a good tracer of water column GDGT export. In parallel, we investigated the mechanistic underpinning of the TEX86 proxy using isothermal culture studies of the ammonia-oxidizing thaumarchaeon Nitrosopumilus maritimus SCM1 to explore the relationship between TEX86 and growth conditions. Evidence suggests that growth rate and electron donor supply are important controls on GDGT ratios and that TEX86 scales with the in-situ rate of nitrification. Constraining the physiological basis of the TEX86 proxy and the mechanism by which this signal is transported to the sedimentary record is crucial to the proxy's application to ancient environments.

Global Monsoon Change During the Last Glacial Maximum: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Change of Global Monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of 7 coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) The annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10% and 5%, respectively; (2) The monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer-minus-winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) The monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) Distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

Functional traits of testate amoebae and multi-proxy data unveil exceptional Baltic bog ecohydrology, autogenic succession and climate change during the last 2000 years in CE Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Gałka, Mariusz; Tobolski, Kazimierz; Lamentowicz, Łukasz; Ersek, Vasile; Jassey, Vincent E. J.; van der Knaap, Willem O.

2017-04-01

We studied two peat cores from the Baltic raised bog (Mechacz Wielki in NE Poland). We aimed to separate signal of extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of the raised bog development using multi-proxy high-resolution approach. Using testate amoebae transfer function, we found that the bog revealed exceptionally stable hydrological conditions during the last 2k with a relatively high water table and lack of local fire events that allowed for rapid peat accumulation (2.75 mm/year) in the bog. Furthermore, the strong correlation between pH and community-weighted mean of testate amoeba traits suggests that other variables than water-table depth play a role in driving microbial properties under stable hydrological conditions. There is a difference in hydrological dynamics in bogs between NW and NE Poland until ca CE 1500, after which the water table reconstructions possess more similarities. Our data suggest a common regional climatic forcing in Mechacz Wielki, Gązwa and Kontolanrahka. Though it may still be too early to attempt a regional summary of wetness change in the southern Baltic region, this study is a next step to better understand the long-term peatland palaeohydrology in NE Europe. We suggest that extrinsic factors (climate) played an important role as a driver in mire development during the bog stage (AD 500-2012). Our results also show how various functional traits relate to different environmental variables in a range of trophic and hydrological scenarios on long time scales.

A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, Central Rocky Mountains U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh; Brunelle, Andrea; Thompson, Robert S.

2015-01-01

Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.

The bivalve Glycymeris longior as an environmental archive for the Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Socorro Doldan, María; Morsan, Enrique Mario; Giménez, Lucas; Zaidman, Paula Cecilia

2017-04-01

Southern Hemisphere lacks of suitable high-resolution long datasets for the marine environment. This is translated in poor understanding of climate dynamics and processes at regional and continental-scale. We assessed the potential of Glycymeris longior as an environmental indicator for the mid-latitudes of South Atlantic by applying sclerochronological techniques on sample sets collected from San Matías Gulf, Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic. We present a reconstruction of marine environmental variability of SMG for the period 1890-2016, covering 125 years. The reconstruction is based on the growth increment series for the first absolutely-dated annually-resolved multi-decadal G. longior bivalve on Sothern Atlantic. Shells were collected in 1918, 1933, 1945, 1983, 1989, 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Sample depth varies between collection years. Age of the individuals was estimated from the hinge region of the shell. G. longior forms an annual narrow growth line. Maximal longevity was 40 years old. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths. Correlations between the growth increment indices and regional temperature series (sea surface temperatures, continental temperatures) and other proxies were made. Preliminary results indicate that G.longior sclerochronologies, combined with low-frequency proxies can facilitate reconstructions of oceanographic variability. We discuss multi-decadal climate variability. Given the ability to generate annually-resolved chronologies G. longior is likely to be used as a climate recorder in southern South America. Hence, G. longior shells from Pleistocene marine deposits from Patagonia, Argentina, have a considerable potential to contain information of past climate for mid-latitudes of South Atlantic.

A fluvial record of the mid-Holocene rapid climatic changes in the middle Rhone valley (Espeluche-Lalo, France) and of their impact on Late Mesolithic and Early Neolithic societies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Jean-François; Delhon, Claire; Magnin, Frédéric; Bonté, Sandrine; Peyric, Dominique; Thiébault, Stéphanie; Guilbert, Raphaele; Beeching, Alain

2016-03-01

This multi-proxy study of a small floodplain in the Rhone catchment area, at the northern edge of the Mediterranean morphoclimatic system, provides valuable information concerning the impact of mid-Holocene climate variability (8.5-7.0 ka) and the effects of two rapid climatic changes (8.2 and 7.7/7.1 ka) on an alluvial plain, its basin and the first farming societies of the Rhone valley. Around 7.7/7.1 ka, the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in insolation and (2) variations in solar activity amplified marine and atmospheric circulation in the north-west Atlantic (Bond event 5b), which imply continental hydrological, soil and vegetation changes in the small catchment area. For this period, strong fluctuations in the plant cover ratio have been identified, related to a regime of sustained and regular fires, as well as abundant erosion of the hill slopes and frequent fluvial metamorphoses which led to braiding of the watercourse in this floodplain. There are few data available to evaluate the impact of natural events on prehistoric communities. This continental archive offers clear multi-proxy data for discussion of these aspects, having 4 cultural layers interbedded in the fluvial sequence (1 Late Mesolithic, 3 Cardial/Epicardial). Earlier data indicate the difficulty in recognizing such cultural features in the low alluvial plains of southern France during the Mesolithic/Early Neolithic transition, which should lead to caution when developing settlement models for this period.

Quantifying Proxy Influence in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, D. N.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

We examine the influence of proxies in the climate field reconstruction known as the Last Millennium Reanalysis (Hakim et al. 2016; JGR-A). This data assimilation framework uses the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an agnostic prior, proxies from the PAGES 2k Consortium (2017; Sci. Data), and an offline ensemble square-root filter for assimilation. Proxies are forward modeled using an observation model ("proxy system model") that maps from the prior space to the proxy space. We assess proxy impact using the method of Cardinali et al. (2004; QJRMS), where influence is measured in observation space; that is, at the location of observations. Influence is determined by three components: the prior at the location, the proxy at the location, and remote proxies as mediated by the spatial covariance information in the prior. Consequently, on a per-proxy basis, influence is higher for spatially isolated proxies having small error, and influence is lower for spatially dense proxies having large error. Results show that proxy influence depends strongly on the observation model. Assuming the proxies depend linearly on annual mean temperature yields the largest per-proxy influence for coral d18O and coral Sr/Ca records, and smallest influence for tree-ring width. On a global basis (summing over all proxies of a given type), tree-ring width and coral d18O have the largest influence. A seasonal model for the proxies yields very different results. In this case we model the proxies linearly on objectively determined seasonal temperature, except for tree proxies, which are fit to a bivariate model on seasonal temperature and precipitation. In this experiment, on a per-proxy basis, tree-ring density has by far the greatest influence. Total proxy influence is dominated by tree-ring width followed by tree-ring density. Compared to the results for the annual-mean observation model, the experiment where proxies are measured seasonally has more than double the total influence (sum over all proxies); this experiment also has higher verification scores when measured against other 20th century temperature reconstructions. These results underscore the importance of improving proxy system models, since they increase the amount of information available for data-assimilation-based reconstructions.

Multi-proxy analyses of geo-bio-archives - a key to reconstruct major environmental and ecological changes in the Ephesia, W Turkey, during the last eight millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, Friederike; Knipping, Maria; Pint, Anna; Krichel, Marc; Schwarzbauer, Jan; Dsikowitzky, Larissa; Brückner, Helmut

2016-04-01

This interdisciplinary geoarchaeological research in the environs of the ancient city of Ephesus (W Turkey) focuses on (i) Holocene landscape reconstruction along with sea-level changes, and (ii) human impact on landscape evolution. More than 200 sediment cores were retrieved from geo-bio-archives and analysed with a multi-proxy approach (geochemical, sedimentological, microfaunal, palynological, and parasitological methods). The Holocene palaeogeographic changes in the embayment of the Küçük Menderes (Kaystros) on the Aegean coast of Turkey with the famous ancient city of Ephesus are counted amongst the most dramatic ones in the Mediterranean. About seven millennia ago, the maximum marine transgression filled the Küçük Menderes graben up to 20 km inland. Since then, the coastline has continuously shifted westwards due to the progradation of the deltas of this river and its tributaries. Besides other natural factors, like sea level fluctuations and tectonics, the speed of delta progradation was mainly governed by the riverine sediment load, which, in turn, was very much dependent on the human impact on the vegetation cover of the drainage basins. The sedimentation rates confirm this assumption: While low rates occurred between the 5th and the 1st millennia BC (up to 1 mm/year), much higher rates (4 - 30 mm/year) can be calculated thereafter. In response to these dramatic environmental changes, human settlements and their harbours had to be relocated several times from the 1st millennium BC onwards. The Koressos harbour and the Roman harbour were important hubs for commerce with the islands in the Aegean Sea. The nowadays silted-up harbour basins are valuable geo-bio-archives. The Roman harbours inventory shows high heavy metal concentrations (lead, copper), fruit tree pollen and eggs of intestinal parasites from the 1st millennium BC until the 7th century AD, as evidence of intensive human impact during that period of time. The occurrence of organic compounds (abietane, retene, loliolode and β-cyclocitral originating, e.g., from natural resins, tar and bitumen) also correlate with the intensive use of the harbour. In contrast, the lake and swamps of Belevi, located 14 km upstream of Ephesus, represent a geo-bio-archive with a quasi-natural sedimentation. However, even there the palynological analysis clearly reveals settlement activities already since the 7th millennium BC. The proof of the Santorini tephra of 1630 BC is an excellent marker horizon; it is the first time that this ash was detected in the environs of Ephesus.

A database of paleoceanographic sediment cores from the North Pacific, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borreggine, Marisa; Myhre, Sarah E.; Mislan, K. Allison S.; Deutsch, Curtis; Davis, Catherine V.

2017-09-01

We assessed sediment coring, data acquisition, and publications from the North Pacific (north of 30° N) from 1951 to 2016. There are 2134 sediment cores collected by American, French, Japanese, Russian, and international research vessels across the North Pacific (including the Pacific subarctic gyre, Alaskan gyre, Japan margin, and California margin; 1391 cores), the Sea of Okhotsk (271 cores), the Bering Sea (123 cores), and the Sea of Japan (349 cores) reported here. All existing metadata associated with these sediment cores are documented here, including coring date, location, core number, cruise number, water depth, vessel metadata, and coring technology. North Pacific sediment core age models are built with isotope stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, tephrochronology, % opal, color, and lithological proxies. Here, we evaluate the iterative generation of each published age model and provide comprehensive documentation of the dating techniques used, along with sedimentation rates and age ranges. We categorized cores according to the availability of a variety of proxy evidence, including biological (e.g., benthic and planktonic foraminifera assemblages), geochemical (e.g., major trace element concentrations), isotopic (e.g., bulk sediment nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon isotopes), and stratigraphic (e.g., preserved laminations) proxies. This database is a unique resource to the paleoceanographic and paleoclimate communities and provides cohesive accessibility to sedimentary sequences, age model development, and proxies. The data set is publicly available through PANGAEA at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875998.

IPv6 Addressing Proxy: Mapping Native Addressing from Legacy Technologies and Devices to the Internet of Things (IPv6)

PubMed Central

Jara, Antonio J.; Moreno-Sanchez, Pedro; Skarmeta, Antonio F.; Varakliotis, Socrates; Kirstein, Peter

2013-01-01

Sensors utilize a large number of heterogeneous technologies for a varied set of application environments. The sheer number of devices involved requires that this Internet be the Future Internet, with a core network based on IPv6 and a higher scalability in order to be able to address all the devices, sensors and things located around us. This capability to connect through IPv6 devices, sensors and things is what is defining the so-called Internet of Things (IoT). IPv6 provides addressing space to reach this ubiquitous set of sensors, but legacy technologies, such as X10, European Installation Bus (EIB), Controller Area Network (CAN) and radio frequency ID (RFID) from the industrial, home automation and logistic application areas, do not support the IPv6 protocol. For that reason, a technique must be devised to map the sensor and identification technologies to IPv6, thus allowing homogeneous access via IPv6 features in the context of the IoT. This paper proposes a mapping between the native addressing of each technology and an IPv6 address following a set of rules that are discussed and proposed in this work. Specifically, the paper presents a technology-dependent IPv6 addressing proxy, which maps each device to the different subnetworks built under the IPv6 prefix addresses provided by the internet service provider for each home, building or user. The IPv6 addressing proxy offers a common addressing environment based on IPv6 for all the devices, regardless of the device technology. Thereby, this offers a scalable and homogeneous solution to interact with devices that do not support IPv6 addressing. The IPv6 addressing proxy has been implemented in a multi-protocol card and evaluated successfully its performance, scalability and interoperability through a protocol built over IPv6. PMID:23686145

The Paleoclimate Uncertainty Cascade: Tracking Proxy Errors Via Proxy System Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Dee, S. G.; Evans, M. N.; Adkins, J. F.

2014-12-01

Paleoclimatic observations are, by nature, imperfect recorders of climate variables. Empirical approaches to their calibration are challenged by the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty, which may confound the interpretation of signals and the identifiability of the noise. In this talk, I will demonstrate the utility of proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al, 2013, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024) to quantify the impact of all known sources of uncertainty. PSMs explicitly encode the mechanistic knowledge of the physical, chemical, biological and geological processes from which paleoclimatic observations arise. PSMs may be divided into sensor, archive and observation components, all of which may conspire to obscure climate signals in actual paleo-observations. As an example, we couple a PSM for the δ18O of speleothem calcite to an isotope-enabled climate model (Dee et al, submitted) to analyze the potential of this measurement as a proxy for precipitation amount. A simple soil/karst model (Partin et al, 2013, 10.1130/G34718.1) is used as sensor model, while a hiatus-permitting chronological model (Haslett & Parnell, 2008, 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00623.x) is used as part of the observation model. This subdivision allows us to explicitly model the transformation from precipitation amount to speleothem calcite δ18O as a multi-stage process via a physical and chemical sensor model, and a stochastic archive model. By illustrating the PSM's behavior within the context of the climate simulations, we show how estimates of climate variability may be affected by each submodel's transformation of the signal. By specifying idealized climate signals(periodic vs. episodic, slow vs. fast) to the PSM, we investigate how frequency and amplitude patterns are modulated by sensor and archive submodels. To the extent that the PSM and the climate models are representative of real world processes, then the results may help us more accurately interpret existing paleodata, characterize their uncertainties, and design sampling strategies that exploit their strengths while mitigating their weaknesses.

The dendroclimatic proxies from the northern Quebec taiga in the PAGES 2K network: recent advances and future developments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Naulier, Maud; Arseneault, Dominique; Savard, Martine; Bégin, Christian; Boucher, Etienne; Bégin, Yves; Guiot, Joël

2016-04-01

Northeastern North America was historically underrepresented in the network of climate proxies used for climate reconstructions over the last two millennia. Indeed, in North America most high-resolution climate proxies are long tree-ring chronologies but, in Northeastern North America, these chronologies are highly challenging due to short tree longevity, high frequency and severity of wildfires and remoteness of many areas. Here, we will present the efforts accomplished during the last decade by our team in developing millennial-long tree-ring chronologies in the northern Quebec taiga. We sampled black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P] subfossil tree remains naturally fallen in the littoral zone of six lakes to build six site-specific ring-width chronologies as well as two chronologies of stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C in tree-ring cellulose). These chronologies, which are now included in the PAGES 2K network, were independently used to reconstruct summer temperature variations showing a well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly and the impact of volcanic and solar forcings at regional scale. We will also discuss non-climatic influences on these chronologies (i.e. wildfires and sampling height inconsistency), as well as the ongoing effort to extend the reconstructions in time to cover the last 2500 years. Finally, a new European funded project called MAIDEN-SPRUCE will be introduced. Within MAIDEN-SPRUCE, we will use a data-model approach to improve our understanding of the links between forests and climate over the last millennium. More specifically, we will adapt the process-based ecophysiological model MAIDENiso to investigate factors influencing the growth and underlying biogeochemical processes of black spruce. One of our objectives is to provide the first multi-proxy (ring widths and δ18O and δ13C in tree-ring cellulose) regional climate reconstruction in Eastern North America over the last millennium taking into account mechanistic rules, including nonlinear or threshold relationships.

IPv6 addressing proxy: mapping native addressing from legacy technologies and devices to the Internet of Things (IPv6).

PubMed

Jara, Antonio J; Moreno-Sanchez, Pedro; Skarmeta, Antonio F; Varakliotis, Socrates; Kirstein, Peter

2013-05-17

Sensors utilize a large number of heterogeneous technologies for a varied set of application environments. The sheer number of devices involved requires that this Internet be the Future Internet, with a core network based on IPv6 and a higher scalability in order to be able to address all the devices, sensors and things located around us. This capability to connect through IPv6 devices, sensors and things is what is defining the so-called Internet of Things (IoT). IPv6 provides addressing space to reach this ubiquitous set of sensors, but legacy technologies, such as X10, European Installation Bus (EIB), Controller Area Network (CAN) and radio frequency ID (RFID) from the industrial, home automation and logistic application areas, do not support the IPv6 protocol. For that reason, a technique must be devised to map the sensor and identification technologies to IPv6, thus allowing homogeneous access via IPv6 features in the context of the IoT. This paper proposes a mapping between the native addressing of each technology and an IPv6 address following a set of rules that are discussed and proposed in this work. Specifically, the paper presents a technology-dependent IPv6 addressing proxy, which maps each device to the different subnetworks built under the IPv6 prefix addresses provided by the internet service provider for each home, building or user. The IPv6 addressing proxy offers a common addressing environment based on IPv6 for all the devices, regardless of the device technology. Thereby, this offers a scalable and homogeneous solution to interact with devices that do not support IPv6 addressing. The IPv6 addressing proxy has been implemented in a multi-protocol Sensors 2013, 13 6688 card and evaluated successfully its performance, scalability and interoperability through a protocol built over IPv6.

Practical experience using speleothem data in multi-proxy climate reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N.

2009-04-01

Speleothem records have clear potential to extend and sharpen our understanding of past climate change. Many speleothem records feature both high sample resolution and precision age models, characteristics generally available only in tree-ring records, among terrestrial climate proxies. Speleothem records also avoid some processes that add uncertainty to the interpretation of biological proxy records. At the same time, model results suggest that even if speleothems did provide long and perfect records of meteoric water isotope concentrations, it would not be always be obvious how to interpret the isotopic fluctuations unambiguously in terms of precipitation or temperature variability. Other uncertainties can arise from local hydrologic and speleothem growth processes, as well as sampling and calibration uncertainties. Similar comments apply to other sorts of speleothem-derived records, e.g., verve thickness. These issues of interpretation are especially important in cases where data availability makes calibration to local climate data problematic and when past climate conditions limit the relevance of such calibrations. The presentation will focus broadly on the use of speleothem records together with other sorts of proxy records either to get a general idea of climatic change during some period, or for more formal climate field reconstruction. Examples from few such efforts will be given. Results from simulations with models incorporating stable water isotopes will be discussed, with consideration of what the results imply about the climatic interpretation of speleothem isotope records. The views will be those a climate scientist trying to make better use of speleothem data, a perspective which will highlight 1) where climate researchers would benefit from better understanding of isotope and speleothem processes, and 2) what steps that speleothem researchers could take to tighten the physical interpretation of their records. Convergence on these points will allow us to take better take advantage of the precision and spatial distribution of speleothem records offer for the understanding of past climate.

Stable Carbon Isotopes in Treerings; Revisiting the Paleocloud Proxy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagen, M.; Zorita, E.; Dorado Liñán, I.; Loader, N.; McCarroll, D.; Robertson, I.; Young, G.

2017-12-01

The long term relationship between cloud cover and temperature is one of the most important climate feedbacks contributing to determining the value of climate sensitivity. Climate models still reveal a large spread in the simulation of changes in cloud cover under future warming scenarios and clarity might be aided by a picture of the past variability of cloudiness. Stable carbon isotope ratios from tree ring records have been successfully piloted as a palaeocloud proxy in geographical areas traditionally producing strong dendroclimatological reconstructions (high northern latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere) and with some notable successes elsewhere too. An expansion of tree-ring based palaeocloud reconstructions might help to estimate past variations of cloud cover in periods colder or warmer than the 20th century, providing a way to test model test this specific aspect. Calibration with measured instrumental sunshine and cloud data reveals stable carbon isotope ratios from tree rings as an indicator of incoming short wave solar radiation (SWR) in non-moisture stressed sites, but the statistical identification of the SWR signal is hampered by its interannual co-variability with air temperature during the growing season. Here we present a spatio-temporal statistical analysis of a multivariate stable carbon isotope tree ring data set over Europe to assess its usefulness to reconstruct past solar radiation changes. The interannual co-variability of the tree ring records stronger covariation with SWR than with air temperature. The resulting spatial patterns of interannual co-variability are strongly linked to atmospheric circulation in a physically consistent manner. However, the multidecadal variations in the proxy records show a less physically coherent picture. We explore whether atmospheric corrections applied to the proxy series are contributing to differences in the multi decadal signal and investigate whether multidecadal variations in soil moisture perturb the SWR. Preliminary results of strategies to bypass these problems are explored.

Evidence for local and global redox conditions at an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian) mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Cole T.; Fike, David A.; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Lu, Wanyi; Lu, Zunli

2018-01-01

Profound changes in environmental conditions, particularly atmospheric oxygen levels, are thought to be important drivers of several major biotic events (e.g. mass extinctions and diversifications). The early Paleozoic represents a key interval in the oxygenation of the ocean-atmosphere system and evolution of the biosphere. Global proxies (e.g. carbon (δ13C) and sulfur (δ34S) isotopes) are used to diagnose potential changes in oxygenation and infer causes of environmental change and biotic turnover. The Cambrian-Ordovician contains several trilobite extinctions (some are apparently local, but others are globally correlative) that are attributed to anoxia based on coeval positive δ13C and δ34S excursions. These extinction and excursion events have yet to be coupled with more recently developed proxies thought to be more reflective of local redox conditions in the water column (e.g. I/Ca) to confirm whether these extinctions were associated with oxygen crises over a regional or global scale. Here we examine an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian Stage) extinction event previously interpreted to reflect a continuation of recurrent early Paleozoic anoxic events that expanded into nearshore environments. δ13C, δ34S, and I/Ca trends were measured from three sections in the Great Basin region to test whether I/Ca trends support the notion that anoxia was locally present in the water column along the Laurentian margin. Evidence for anoxia is based on coincident, but not always synchronous, positive δ13C and δ34S excursions (mainly from carbonate-associated sulfate and less so from pyrite data), a 30% extinction of standing generic diversity, and near-zero I/Ca values. Although evidence for local water column anoxia from the I/Ca proxy broadly agrees with intervals of global anoxia inferred from δ13C and δ34S trends, a more complex picture is evident where spatially and temporally variable local trends are superimposed on time-averaged global trends. Stratigraphic sections from the distal and deeper part of the basin (Shingle Pass and Meiklejohn Peak) preserve synchronous global (δ13C and δ34S) and water column (I/Ca) evidence for anoxia, but not at the more proximal section (Ibex, UT). Although geochemical and paleontological evidence point toward anoxia as the driver of this Early Ordovician extinction event, differences between I/Ca and δ13C-δ34S signals suggest regional variation in the timing, extent, and persistence of anoxia.

Shell alterations in limpets as putative biomarkers for multi-impacted coastal areas.

PubMed

Begliomini, Felipe Nincao; Maciel, Daniele Claudino; de Almeida, Sérgio Mendonça; Abessa, Denis Moledo; Maranho, Luciane Alves; Pereira, Camilo Seabra; Yogui, Gilvan Takeshi; Zanardi-Lamardo, Eliete; Castro, Ítalo Braga

2017-07-01

During the last years, shell alterations in gastropods have been proposed as tools to be used in monitoring programs. However, no studies were so far performed investigating the relationships among shell parameters and classical biomarkers of damage. The relationship between shell alterations (biometrics, shape and elemental composition) and biomarkers (LPO and DNA strand break) was evaluated in the limpet L. subrugosa sampled along a contamination gradient in a multi-impacted coastal zone from southeastern Brazil. Statistically significant differences were detected among sites under different pollution levels. The occurrence of shell malformations was consistent with environmental levels of several hazardous substances reported for the studied area and related to lipid peroxidation and DNA damage. In addition, considering the low mobility, wide geographic distribution, ease of collection and abundance of limpets in coastal zones, this putative tool may be a cost-effective alternative to traditional biomarkers. Thus, shell alterations in limpets seem to be good proxies for assessing biological adverse effects in multi-impacted coastal zones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficiently Multi-User Searchable Encryption Scheme with Attribute Revocation and Grant for Cloud Storage

PubMed Central

Wang, Shangping; Zhang, Xiaoxue; Zhang, Yaling

2016-01-01

Cipher-policy attribute-based encryption (CP-ABE) focus on the problem of access control, and keyword-based searchable encryption scheme focus on the problem of finding the files that the user interested in the cloud storage quickly. To design a searchable and attribute-based encryption scheme is a new challenge. In this paper, we propose an efficiently multi-user searchable attribute-based encryption scheme with attribute revocation and grant for cloud storage. In the new scheme the attribute revocation and grant processes of users are delegated to proxy server. Our scheme supports multi attribute are revoked and granted simultaneously. Moreover, the keyword searchable function is achieved in our proposed scheme. The security of our proposed scheme is reduced to the bilinear Diffie-Hellman (BDH) assumption. Furthermore, the scheme is proven to be secure under the security model of indistinguishability against selective ciphertext-policy and chosen plaintext attack (IND-sCP-CPA). And our scheme is also of semantic security under indistinguishability against chosen keyword attack (IND-CKA) in the random oracle model. PMID:27898703

Efficiently Multi-User Searchable Encryption Scheme with Attribute Revocation and Grant for Cloud Storage.

PubMed

Wang, Shangping; Zhang, Xiaoxue; Zhang, Yaling

2016-01-01

Cipher-policy attribute-based encryption (CP-ABE) focus on the problem of access control, and keyword-based searchable encryption scheme focus on the problem of finding the files that the user interested in the cloud storage quickly. To design a searchable and attribute-based encryption scheme is a new challenge. In this paper, we propose an efficiently multi-user searchable attribute-based encryption scheme with attribute revocation and grant for cloud storage. In the new scheme the attribute revocation and grant processes of users are delegated to proxy server. Our scheme supports multi attribute are revoked and granted simultaneously. Moreover, the keyword searchable function is achieved in our proposed scheme. The security of our proposed scheme is reduced to the bilinear Diffie-Hellman (BDH) assumption. Furthermore, the scheme is proven to be secure under the security model of indistinguishability against selective ciphertext-policy and chosen plaintext attack (IND-sCP-CPA). And our scheme is also of semantic security under indistinguishability against chosen keyword attack (IND-CKA) in the random oracle model.

Do Persistence and Passion Matter: Evidence from the Educational Testing Service Major Field Test in Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ketcham, David; Nigro, Peter; Roberto, Michael

2018-01-01

The authors examined the determinants of success on the Educational Testing Service Major Field Test in Business. The authors find that gender, SAT performance, and concentration are significant predictors of performance. Additionally, they derive proxies for student passion and persistence, and find that the greater the student's passion for…

Recommendations on privatization of alcohol retail sales and prevention of excessive alcohol consumption and related harms.

PubMed

2012-04-01

The Community Preventive Services Task Force recommends against privatization of alcohol retail sales in settings with current government control of retail sales, based on strong evidence that privatization results in increased per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages, a well-established proxy for excessive consumption and related harms. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Psychometric Evaluation of the Demographic Index of Cultural Exposure (DICE) in Two Mexican-Origin Community Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cruz, Rick A.; Wilkinson, Anna V.; Bondy, Melissa L.; Koehly, Laura M.

2012-01-01

Reliability and validity evidence is provided for the Demographic Index of Cultural Exposure (DICE), consisting of six demographic proxy indicators of acculturation, within two community samples of Mexican-origin adults (N= 497 for each sample). Factor analytic procedures were used to examine the common variance shared between the six demographic…

Education Outcomes, School Governance and Parents' Demand for Accountability: Evidence from Albania. Policy Research Working Paper 5643

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serra, Danila; Barr, Abigail; Packard, Truman

2011-01-01

The extent to which teachers and school directors are held to account may play a central role in determining education outcomes, particularly in developing and transition countries where institutional deficiencies can distort incentives. This paper investigates the relationship between an expanded set of school inputs, including proxies for the…

Geochemical constraints on the temperature and timing of carbonate formation and lithification in the Nankai Trough, NanTroSEIZE transect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sample, James C.; Torres, Marta E.; Fisher, Andrew; Hong, Wei-Li; Destrigneville, Christine; Defliese, William F.; Tripati, Aradhna E.

2017-02-01

Information about diagenetic processes and temperatures during burial of sediments entering the subduction zone is important for understanding changes in physical properties and seismic behavior during deformation. The geochemistry of authigenic carbonates from accretionary prisms can serve as proxies for conditions during carbonate cementation and resultant lithification. We report results from the Nankai accretionary prism recovered from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) sites C0011 and C0012 and we document continued cementation of deep sediment sections prior to subduction. Elemental and isotope data provide evidence for complex mixing of different isotopic reservoirs in pore waters contributing to carbonate chemical signatures. Carbon stable isotope values exhibit a broad range (δ13CV-PDB = +0.1‰ to -22.5‰) that corresponds to different stages of cement formation during burial. Carbonate formation temperatures from carbonate-clumped isotope geochemistry range from 16 °C to 63 °C at Site C0011 and 8.7 °C to 68 °C at Site C0012. The correspondence between the clumped-isotope temperatures and extrapolations of measured in situ temperatures indicate the carbonate is continuing to form at present. Calculated water isotopic compositions are in some cases enriched in 18O relative to measured interstitial waters suggesting a component of inherited seawater or input from clay-bound water. Low oxygen isotope values and the observed Ba/Ca ratios are also consistent with carbonate cementation at depth. Strontium isotopes of interstitial waters (87Sr/86Sr of 0.7059-0.7069) and carbonates (87Sr/86Sr of 0.70715-0.70891) support formation of carbonates from a mixture of strontium reservoirs including current interstitial waters and relic seawater contemporaneous with deposition. Collectively our data reflect mixed sources of dissolved inorganic carbon and cations that include authigenic phases driven by organic carbon and volcanic alteration reactions. Physical properties of input sediments continue to undergo modification by carbonate cementation at present. Due to ongoing recrystallization, temperatures from carbonate-clumped isotopes reflect the modern geothermal gradient and may serve as useful measures of geothermal gradients in other siliciclastic basins where carbonate cementation occurs. We conclude that clumped-isotope signatures in authigenic carbonates from accretionary prisms are important proxies for the timing and conditions of cementation in active margins. Our results highlight the importance of using multi-proxy approaches to elucidate the history of carbonate cementation, particularly to establish carbonate precipitation at depth and its potential impact on the physical and mechanical properties of the sediment prior to subduction.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Indian Summer Monsoon dynamics during Termination II and MIS 5e

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magiera, Matthias; Erhardt, Andrea M.; Hartland, Adam; Kwiecien, Ola; Cheng, Hai; Immenhauser, Adrian; Turchyn, Alexandra; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2017-04-01

The interpretation of speleothem oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) as proxy for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics is ambiguous, due to multiple influencing factors. Here we combine δ18O and calcium isotope δ44Ca analyses with elemental data to delineate regional shifts in moisture source, local rainfall amount, and changes in ISM intensity and length during Termination II and MIS 5e. Oxygen isotope ratios reflect a mixed signal of moisture source dynamics and rainfall amount; δ44Ca and Mg/Ca ratios are interpreted as proxies for local effective moisture and prior calcite precipitation (PCP) in the epikarst. The age of stalagmite MAW-3 from Mawmluh Cave, NE India, is constraint by six U-series dates. 108 samples, obtained at 0.4 mm resolution from the 70 mm long speleothem sample, have been analysed for δ18O, δ44Ca and Mg/Ca. Oxygen isotope ratios were measured on a ThermoFisher Scientific MAT 253 at Ruhr-University Bochum. Elemental ratios were measured on a quadrupole ICP-MS at Waikato University. Calcium isotope ratios were analyzed on a ThermoFisher Scientific Triton at University of Cambridge. MAW-3 grew from 136 kyrs BP to 96 kyrs BP, covering Termination II and MIS 5e. Oxygen isotope values are high (ca. +0.91 ‰) during Termination II, reach a minimum during MIS 5e (-3.5 ‰), and rise again to -0.2 ‰ at the end of MIS 5e. Calcium isotope ratios range from -0.32 ‰ to -0.70 ‰ and show a positive correlation (R2= 0.7) with δ18O. High δ18O values during Termination II reflect reduced atmospheric circulation and/or a proximal moisture source (Bay of Bengal), implying lowered ISM intensity. A positive correlation of δ18O with δ44Ca suggests concurrent changes of moisture source location and local rainfall amount, with a proximal moisture source and reduced effective rainfall during periods of weak ISM. Elevated Mg/Ca ratios at such intervals corroborate PCP occurrence, which reflects dry conditions. The beginning of MIS 5e (ca. 132 kyrs BP) is marked by a rapid change to lower δ18O and δ44Ca, suggesting increased local infiltration with increasing ISM rainfall, and a concurrent change to a more distal moisture source. The MAW-3 multi-proxy record compares well with reconstructions from China and northern India, the latter being more depleted, due to Rayleigh fractionation. We suggest that multi-proxy analyses of δ18O, δ44Ca and Mg/Ca greatly help to delineate regional circulation pattern and local effective moisture dynamics in monsoonal settings.

Cretaceous honeycomb oysters (Pycnodonte vesicularis) as palaeoseasonality records: A multi-proxy study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, Niels J.; Vellekoop, Johan; Vorsselmans, Robin; Golreihan, Asefeh; Petersen, Sierra V.; Meyer, Kyle W.; Speijer, Robert P.; Claeys, Philippe

2017-04-01

Pycnodonte or "honeycomb-oysters" (Bivalvia: Gryphaeidea) is an extinct genus of calcite-producing bivalves which is found in abundance in Cretaceous to Pleistocene fossil beds worldwide. As such, Pycnodonte shells could be ideal tracers of palaeoclimate through time, with the capability to reconstruct sea water conditions and palaeotemperatures in a range of palaeoenvironmental settings. Only few studies have attempted to reconstruct palaeoclimate based on Pycnodonte shells and with variable degrees of success (e.g. Videt, 2003; Huyge et al., 2015). Our study investigates the shell growth, structure and chemical characteristics of Maastrichtian Pycnodonte vesicularis from Bajada de Jaguel in Argentina and aims to rigorously test the application of multiple palaeoenvironmental proxies on the shells of several Maastrichtian Pycnodonte oysters for palaeoclimate reconstruction. The preservation state of four calcite shells was assessed by fluorescence microscopy, cathodoluminescence and micro X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) mapping. Their shell structure was investigated using a combination of XRF mapping, high-resolution color scanning and microCT scanning. Long integration time point-by-point XRF line scanning yielded high-resolution trace element profiles through the hinge of all shells. Microdrilled samples from the same locations on the shell were analyzed for trace element composition by ICP-MS and for stable carbon and oxygen isotopes by IRMS. Preservation of the calcite microstructure was found to be of sufficient quality to allow discussion of original shell porosity, annual growth increments and pristine chemical signatures of the bivalves. The combination of fluorescence and cathodoluminescence microscopy with XRF mapping and microCT scanning sheds light on the characteristic internal "honeycomb" structure of these extinct bivalves and allows comparison with that of the related extant Neopycnodonte bivalves (Wisshak et al., 2009). Furthermore, high resolution trace element and stable isotope records allow discussion of the degree to which Pycnodonte shells record their palaeoenvironment and can be used to reconstruct past sea water conditions. Preliminary results indicate that stable isotope and trace element ratios in Pynodonte shells record different seasonally changing sea water conditions in the Maastrichtian and reconstructed temperatures are consistent with results from clumped isotope analysis on the same shells and TEX86 analysis on the surrounding rocks. This multi-proxy study sheds light on the shell structure of Pycnodonte oysters, their chemical signature and growth pattern and investigates the expression of palaeoenvironmental proxies in the pristine shell calcite of these bivalves. This investigation shows the potential of using fossil Pycnodonte bivalves as a new archive for palaeoclimate reconstruction on a seasonal scale over a wide range of palaeolatitudes from the Cretaceous until the Pleistocene. References Huyghe et al. (2015) J. Geol Soc 172.5: 576-587. Videt (2003) Diss. Université Rennes 1. Wisshak, et al. (2009) Deep-Sea Res Pt I 56.3: 374-407.

Mechanisms Underlying Early Medieval Droughts in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

Multidecadal drought during the early Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 800-1200 CE) in Mesoamerica has been implicated in the demise of many pre-Columbian societies, including the Maya. The mechanisms behind these droughts, however, are poorly understood. Researchers most often interpret these records as tracking the mean position of the ITCZ, with a southward shifted ITCZ resulting in Mesoamerican drought. This is puzzling, however, because our dynamical understanding of the ITCZ and its role in interhemispheric heat transport would suggest a more northward shifted ITCZ during the MCA. Here, we evaluate two hypotheses to reconcile existing proxies and dynamics. First, we assess whether evidence for dry conditions during the MCA is robust across multiple Mesoamerican proxy records, focusing on the influence of radiometric dating uncertainty on estimates of drought timing. Second, we use control simulations of CCSM4 and HadCM3, as well as a broader synthesis of oceanic and terrestrial proxies, to explore the mechanisms responsible for long-term drought in Mesoamerica. Ultimately, we suggest that a temporary slowdown of the AMOC, either internally or externally forced, combined with local and regional land surface feedbacks can explain these droughts in Mesoamerica.

Register of the last 1000 years of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic change in Isla Grande de Chiloé, inferred through a multi-proxy approach: Lake Pastahué, Chile-South Center (42°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troncoso, Jose; Alvarez, Denisse; Díaz, Gustavo; Fierro, Pablo; Araneda, Alberto; Torrejón, Fernando; Rondanelli, Mauricio; Fagel, Nathalie; Urrutia, Roberto

2017-04-01

Knowledge of the past environmental and climatic conditions of the lake ecosystems of the Isla Grande de Chiloé and its relationship with the anthropic effect, on a high temporal resolution scale, is scarcely known. Specifically, multi-proxy studies provide a better understanding of the context in which changes occurred in the past. This insular region is particularly interesting because environmental conditions (pre and post-Hispanic) and knowledge about the impacts generated in the ecosystems during the Spanish colonization process have so far been little studied, compared to the rest of Chile continental. This research is a new contribution to the scarce information existing for the last millennium of the Isla Grande de Chiloé. The objective of this work was to reconstruct the environmental and climatic history of the last 1000 years, from the Lake Pastahué, in the Isla Grande de Chiloé through a multi-proxy analysis and compare them with other records for the region. The core sediment was sub-sampled to perform sedimentological analysis (organic matter, carbonates, magnetic susceptibility and granulometry) and biological indicators (pollen, chironomids). The age model was constructed from the activity of 210Pb,137Cs and 14C. The pollen results reveal a composition of nordpatagónico forest represented by Nothofagus, Weinmannia, Drimys, Tepualia, Myrtaceae, Poaceae and Pteridophyta, while the anthropic effect for the last cm of the profile is represented by Rumex and Pinus. The results show a significant increase in magnetic susceptibility since the middle of the 20th century, suggesting an increase in allochthonous material to the lake. The sedimentological parameters and the chironomid assembly show similar variations along the profile, which also shows changes in the trophic state of the lake. The changes recorded in lake Pastahue are directly related to past climatic phenomena occurring in the last millennium, such as the medieval climatic anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) manifested in increases and decreases in temperatures, these antecedents are in agreement with others records for the region. The variations observed for the last cm of the profile could be a result of the decrease of the forests due to the intensification of the agricultural and cattle activities generated by the chilotes from century XX to the present time. The data provided by this research are still insufficient to establish an extralocal climatic influence of MCA and LIA events in Chiloé; although certain trends are observed. Research Funded by the projects: CONICYT- Scholarship PhD National 2014, FONDECYT N°1120807 and CRHIAM / CONICYT / FONDAP / 15130015.

Merging Multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3 Past-1000 Ensemble Simulations with Tree Ring Proxy Data by Optimal Interpolation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Luo, Yong; Xing, Pei; Nie, Suping; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

Two sets of gridded annual mean surface air temperature in past millennia over the Northern Hemisphere was constructed employing optimal interpolation (OI) method so as to merge the tree ring proxy records with the simulations from CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project). Both the uncertainties in proxy reconstruction and model simulations can be taken into account applying OI algorithm. For better preservation of physical coordinated features and spatial-temporal completeness of climate variability in 7 copies of model results, we perform the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis to truncate the ensemble mean field as the first guess (background field) for OI. 681 temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies are collected and screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and Past Global Changes (PAGES-2k) project. Firstly, two methods (variance matching and linear regression) are employed to calibrate the tree ring chronologies with instrumental data (CRUTEM4v) individually. In addition, we also remove the bias of both the background field and proxy records relative to instrumental dataset. Secondly, time-varying background error covariance matrix (B) and static "observation" error covariance matrix (R) are calculated for OI frame. In our scheme, matrix B was calculated locally, and "observation" error covariance are partially considered in R matrix (the covariance value between the pairs of tree ring sites that are very close to each other would be counted), which is different from the traditional assumption that R matrix should be diagonal. Comparing our results, it turns out that regional averaged series are not sensitive to the selection for calibration methods. The Quantile-Quantile plots indicate regional climatologies based on both methods are tend to be more agreeable with regional reconstruction of PAGES-2k in 20th century warming period than in little ice age (LIA). Lager volcanic cooling response over Asia and Europe in context of recent millennium are detected in our datasets than that revealed in regional reconstruction from PAGES-2k network. Verification experiments have showed that the merging approach really reconcile the proxy data and model ensemble simulations in an optimal way (with smaller errors than both of them). Further research is needed to improve the error estimation on them.

The formation of fire residues associated with hunter-gatherers in humid tropical environments: A geo-ethnoarchaeological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friesem, David E.; Lavi, Noa; Madella, Marco; Boaretto, Elisabetta; Ajithparsad, P.; French, Charles

2017-09-01

Tropical forests have been an important human habitat and played a significant role in early human dispersal and evolution. Likewise, the use of fire, besides being one of the exceptional characteristics of humans, serves as a marker for human evolution. While the use of fire by prehistoric hunter-gatherers is relatively well documented in arid and temperate environments, the archaeological evidence in humid tropical environment is to date very limited. We first review the archaeological evidence for hunter-gatherer use of fire in humid tropical environments and suggest that better understanding of formation processes is required. We present a geo-ethnoarchaeological study from South India, involving ethnography, excavations and laboratory-based analyses in order to build a new framework to study fire residues in humid tropical forests associated with hunter-gatherer's use of fire. Ethnographic observations point to a dynamic and ephemeral use of hearths. Hearths location were dictated by the social and ever-changing social dynamics of the site. The hearths deposited small amount of residues which were later swept on a daily basis, re-depositing ash and charcoal in waste areas and leaving only a microscopic signal in the original location. Particular acidic conditions and intensive biological activity within tropical sediments result in the complete dissolution of ash and bones while favouring the preservation of charcoal and phytoliths. Consequently, the identification of fire residues in humid tropical forests and the reconstruction of the human use of fire must involve multi-proxy microscopic analysis to detect its micro-signatures.

A high-elevation, multi-proxy biotic and environmental record of MIS 6-4 from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Ian M.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.; Anderson, R. Scott; Johnson, Kirk R.; Mahan, Shannon; Ager, Thomas A.; Baker, Richard G.; Blaauw, Maarten; Bright, Jordon; Brown, Peter M.; Bryant, Bruce; Calamari, Zachary T.; Carrara, Paul E.; Michael D., Cherney; Demboski, John R.; Elias, Scott A.; Fisher, Daniel C.; Gray, Harrison J.; Haskett, Danielle R.; Honke, Jeffrey S.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kline, Douglas; Leonard, Eric M.; Lifton, Nathaniel A.; Lucking, Carol; McDonald, H. Gregory; Miller, Dane M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Nash, Stephen E.; Newton, Cody; Paces, James B.; Petrie, Lesley; Plummer, Mitchell A.; Porinchu, David F.; Rountrey, Adam N.; Scott, Eric; Sertich, Joseph J. W.; Sharpe, Saxon E.; Skipp, Gary L.; Strickland, Laura E.; Stucky, Richard K.; Thompson, Robert S.; Wilson, Jim

2014-01-01

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~ 140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.

Four thousand years of environmental change and human activity in the Cochabamba Basin, Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Joseph J.; Gosling, William D.; Coe, Angela L.; Brooks, Stephen J.; Gulliver, Pauline

The Cochabamba Basin (Bolivia) is on the ancient road network connecting Andean and lowland areas. Little is known about the longevity of this trade route or how people responded to past environmental changes. The eastern end of the Cochabamba valley system constricts at the Vacas Lake District, constraining the road network and providing an ideal location in which to examine past human-environmental interactions. Multi-proxy analysis of sediment from Lake Challacaba has allowed a c. 4000 year environmental history to be reconstructed. Fluctuations in drought tolerant pollen taxa and calcium carbonate indicate two periods of reduced moisture availability ( c. 4000-3370 and c. 2190-1020 cal yr BP) compared to adjacent wetter episodes ( c. 3370-2190 and c. 1020 cal yr BP-present). The moisture fluctuations broadly correlate to El Niño/Southern Oscillation variations reported elsewhere. High charcoal abundance from c. 4000 to 2000 yr ago indicates continuous use of the ancient road network. A decline in charcoal and an increase in dung fungus ( Sporormiella) c. 1340 -1210 cal yr BP, suggests that cultural changes were a major factor in shaping the modern landscape. Despite undisputable impacts of human populations on the Polylepis woodlands today, we see no evidence of woodland clearance in the Challacaba record.

Determinants of the lethality of climate-related disasters in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM): a cross-country analysis

PubMed Central

Andrewin, Aisha N.; Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose M.; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2015-01-01

Floods and storms are climate-related hazards posing high mortality risk to Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations. However risk factors for their lethality remain untested. We conducted an ecological study investigating risk factors for flood and storm lethality in CARICOM nations for the period 1980–2012. Lethality - deaths versus no deaths per disaster event- was the outcome. We examined biophysical and social vulnerability proxies and a decadal effect as predictors. We developed our regression model via multivariate analysis using a generalized logistic regression model with quasi-binomial distribution; removal of multi-collinear variables and backward elimination. Robustness was checked through subset analysis. We found significant positive associations between lethality, percentage of total land dedicated to agriculture (odds ratio [OR] 1.032; 95% CI: 1.013–1.053) and percentage urban population (OR 1.029, 95% CI 1.003–1.057). Deaths were more likely in the 2000–2012 period versus 1980–1989 (OR 3.708, 95% CI 1.615–8.737). Robustness checks revealed similar coefficients and directions of association. Population health in CARICOM nations is being increasingly impacted by climate-related disasters connected to increasing urbanization and land use patterns. Our findings support the evidence base for setting sustainable development goals (SDG). PMID:26153115

A high-elevation, multi-proxy biotic and environmental record of MIS 6–4 from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ian M. Miller; Mitchell A. Plummer; Various Others

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bonesmore » of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5« less

The impact of environment change on culture evolution in east Ancient Silk Road.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, G.; Liu, F.; Li, G.; Zhang, D. D.; Lee, H. F.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Ancient Silk Road played an important role in culture communication between west and east parts of the Eurasia during Bronze Age and historical period. Tens of archaic civilizations rise and fall in east parts of the Ancient Silk Road, climate change is attributed as one of the most important driving forces, while the process and mechanism for the impact of environmental change on culture evolution in the area has not been well-understood. Here we report new paleoclimate data based on multi-proxy analysis from two well-dated aeolian deposit sequences in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam basin, where locate at the throat position of the Ancient Silk Road. Comparing with high-resolution tree rings from Qilian Mountain nearby, and archaeological evidence and historical documents, we proposed that two desertification events occurred in west Hexi Corridor between 3400-3100 BP and post 1450 AD, which induced two cultural discontinuity in that area. Climate was dry between 3400-2900 BP and wet between 2900-2000 BP in lowlands of east Qaidam basin, mismatching with the development of Nuomuhong Bronze culture in the area during 3400-2450 BP. We propose culture evolution in east Ancient Silk Road was mainly influenced by precipitation change of highlands in mountain areas,which was further influenced by large-scale vapor transport.

Climate and hydrology of the last interglaciation (MIS 5) in Owens Basin, California: Isotopic and geochemical evidence from core OL-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, H.-C.; Bischoff, J.L.; Ku, T.-L.; Zhu, Z.-Y.

2004-01-01

??18O, ??13C, total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, and acid-leachable Li, Mg and Sr concentrations on 443 samples from 32 to 83 m depth in Owens Lake core OL-92 were analyzed to study the climatic and hydrological conditions between 60 and 155 ka with a resolution of ???200 a. The multi-proxy data show that Owens Lake overflowed during wet/cold conditions of marine isotope stages (MIS) 4, 5b and 6, and was closed during the dry/warm conditions of MIS 5a, c and e. The lake partially overflowed during MIS 5d. Our age model places the MIS 4/5 boundary at ca 72.5 ka and the MIS 5/6 boundary (Termination II) at ca 140 ka, agreeing with the Devils Hole chronology. The diametrical precipitation intensities between the Great Basin (cold/wet) and eastern China (cold/dry) on Milankovitch time scales imply a climatic teleconnection across the Pacific. It also probably reflects the effect of high-latitude ice sheets on the southward shifts of both the summer monsoon frontal zone in eastern Asia and the polar jet stream in western North America during glacial periods. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Travel Time Inversion adopting Gaussian Process Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauerberger, S.; Holschneider, M.

2017-12-01

A major application in seismology is the determination of seismic velocity models. Travel time measurements are putting an integral constraint on the velocity between source and receiver. We provide insight into travel time inversion from a correlation-based Bayesian point of view. Therefore, the concept of Gaussian process regression is adopted to estimate a velocity model. The non-linear travel time integral is approximated by a 1st order Taylor expansion. A heuristic covariance describes correlations amongst observations and a priori model. That approach enables us to assess a proxy of the Bayesian posterior distribution at ordinary computational costs. No multi dimensional numeric integration nor excessive sampling is necessary. Instead of stacking the data, we suggest to progressively build the posterior distribution. Incorporating only a single evidence at a time accounts for the deficit of linearization. As a result, the most probable model is given by the posterior mean whereas uncertainties are described by the posterior covariance.As a proof of concept, a synthetic purely 1d model is addressed. Therefore a single source accompanied by multiple receivers is considered on top of a model comprising a discontinuity. We consider travel times of both phases - direct and reflected wave - corrupted by noise. Left and right of the interface are assumed independent where the squared exponential kernel serves as covariance.

Summary of the Snowmastodon Project Special Volume. A high-elevation, multi-proxy biotic and environmental record of MIS 6-4 from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Ian M.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.; Scott Anderson, R.; Johnson, Kirk R.; Mahan, Shannon A.; Ager, Thomas A.; Baker, Richard G.; Blaauw, Maarten; Bright, Jordon; Brown, Peter M.; Bryant, Bruce; Calamari, Zachary T.; Carrara, Paul E.; Cherney, Michael D.; Demboski, John R.; Elias, Scott A.; Fisher, Daniel C.; Gray, Harrison J.; Haskett, Danielle R.; Honke, Jeffrey S.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kline, Douglas; Leonard, Eric M.; Lifton, Nathaniel A.; Lucking, Carol; Gregory McDonald, H.; Miller, Dane M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Nash, Stephen E.; Newton, Cody; Paces, James B.; Petrie, Lesley; Plummer, Mitchell A.; Porinchu, David F.; Rountrey, Adam N.; Scott, Eric; Sertich, Joseph J. W.; Sharpe, Saxon E.; Skipp, Gary L.; Strickland, Laura E.; Stucky, Richard K.; Thompson, Robert S.; Wilson, Jim

2014-11-01

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean-atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010-2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~ 140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.

Reconstruction of precipitation variability in Estonia since the eighteenth century, inferred from oak and spruce tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helama, Samuli; Sohar, Kristina; Läänelaid, Alar; Bijak, Szymon; Jaagus, Jaak

2018-06-01

There is plenty of evidence for intensification of the global hydrological cycle. In Europe, the northern areas are predicted to receive more precipitation in the future and observational evidence suggests a parallel trend over the past decades. As a consequence, it would be essential to place the recent trend in precipitation in the context of proxy-based estimates of reconstructed precipitation variability over the past centuries. Tree rings are frequently used as proxy data for palaeoclimate reconstructions. Here we use deciduous ( Quercus robur) and coniferous ( Picea abies) tree-ring width chronologies from western Estonia to deduce past early-summer (June) precipitation variability since 1771. Statistical model transforming our tree-ring data into estimates of precipitation sums explains 42% of the variance in instrumental variability. Comparisons with products of gridded reconstructions of soil moisture and summer precipitation illustrate robust correlations with soil moisture (Palmer Drought Severity Index), but lowered correlation with summer precipitation estimates prior to mid-nineteenth century, these instabilities possibly reflecting the general uncertainties inherent to early meteorological and proxy data. Reconstructed precipitation variability was negatively correlated to the teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern, on annual to decadal and longer scales. These relationships demonstrate the positive precipitation anomalies to result from increase in zonal inflow and cyclonic activity, the negative anomalies being linked with the high pressure conditions enhanced during the atmospheric blocking episodes. Recently, the instrumental data have demonstrated a remarkable increase in summer (June) precipitation in the study region. Our tree-ring based reconstruction reproduces this trend in the context of precipitation history since eighteenth century and quantifies the unprecedented abundance of June precipitation over the recent years.

A Quantitative Prioritisation of Human and Domestic Animal Pathogens in Europe

PubMed Central

McIntyre, K. Marie; Setzkorn, Christian; Hepworth, Philip J.; Morand, Serge; Morse, Andrew P.; Baylis, Matthew

2014-01-01

Disease or pathogen risk prioritisations aid understanding of infectious agent impact within surveillance or mitigation and biosecurity work, but take significant development. Previous work has shown the H-(Hirsch-)index as an alternative proxy. We present a weighted risk analysis describing infectious pathogen impact for human health (human pathogens) and well-being (domestic animal pathogens) using an objective, evidence-based, repeatable approach; the H-index. This study established the highest H-index European pathogens. Commonalities amongst pathogens not included in previous surveillance or risk analyses were examined. Differences between host types (humans/animals/zoonotic) in pathogen H-indices were explored as a One Health impact indicator. Finally, the acceptability of the H-index proxy for animal pathogen impact was examined by comparison with other measures. 57 pathogens appeared solely in the top 100 highest H-indices (1) human or (2) animal pathogens list, and 43 occurred in both. Of human pathogens, 66 were zoonotic and 67 were emerging, compared to 67 and 57 for animals. There were statistically significant differences between H-indices for host types (humans, animal, zoonotic), and there was limited evidence that H-indices are a reasonable proxy for animal pathogen impact. This work addresses measures outlined by the European Commission to strengthen climate change resilience and biosecurity for infectious diseases. The results include a quantitative evaluation of infectious pathogen impact, and suggest greater impacts of human-only compared to zoonotic pathogens or scientific under-representation of zoonoses. The outputs separate high and low impact pathogens, and should be combined with other risk assessment methods relying on expert opinion or qualitative data for priority setting, or could be used to prioritise diseases for which formal risk assessments are not possible because of data gaps. PMID:25136810

Climatic History of the Northeastern United States During the Past 3000 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael;

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; Cook, Edward; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Dietze, Michael C.; Hessl, Amy; Hubeny, J. Bradford; Jackson, Stephen T.; Marsicek, Jeremiah; McLachlan, Jason; Mock, Cary J.; Moore, David J. P.; Nichols, Jonathan; Peteet, Dorothy; Schaefer, Kevin; Trouet, Valerie; Umbanhowar, Charles; Williams, John W.; Yu, Zicheng

2017-10-01

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE-1700 CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750 CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

Heavier smoking increases coffee consumption: findings from a Mendelian randomization analysis.

PubMed

Bjørngaard, Johan H; Nordestgaard, Ask Tybjærg; Taylor, Amy E; Treur, Jorien L; Gabrielsen, Maiken E; Munafò, Marcus R; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne; Åsvold, Bjørn Olav; Romundstad, Pål; Davey Smith, George

2017-12-01

There is evidence for a positive relationship between cigarette and coffee consumption in smokers. Cigarette smoke increases metabolism of caffeine, so this may represent a causal effect of smoking on caffeine intake. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses in the UK Biobank (N = 114 029), the Norwegian HUNT study (N = 56 664) and the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) (N = 78 650). We used the rs16969968 genetic variant as a proxy for smoking heaviness in all studies and rs4410790 and rs2472297 as proxies for coffee consumption in UK Biobank and CGPS. Analyses were conducted using linear regression and meta-analysed across studies. Each additional cigarette per day consumed by current smokers was associated with higher coffee consumption (0.10 cups per day, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.17). There was weak evidence for an increase in tea consumption per additional cigarette smoked per day (0.04 cups per day, 95% CI: -0.002, 0.07). There was strong evidence that each additional copy of the minor allele of rs16969968 (which increases daily cigarette consumption) in current smokers was associated with higher coffee consumption (0.16 cups per day, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.20), but only weak evidence for an association with tea consumption (0.04 cups per day, 95% CI: -0.01, 0.09). There was no clear evidence that rs16969968 was associated with coffee or tea consumption in never or former smokers or that the coffee-related variants were associated with cigarette consumption. Higher cigarette consumption causally increases coffee intake. This is consistent with faster metabolism of caffeine by smokers, but could also reflect a behavioural effect of smoking on coffee drinking. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Heavier smoking increases coffee consumption: findings from a Mendelian randomization analysis

PubMed Central

Bjørngaard, Johan H; Nordestgaard, Ask Tybjærg; Taylor, Amy E; Treur, Jorien L; Gabrielsen, Maiken E; Munafò, Marcus R; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne; Åsvold, Bjørn Olav; Romundstad, Pål; Davey Smith, George

2017-01-01

Abstract Background There is evidence for a positive relationship between cigarette and coffee consumption in smokers. Cigarette smoke increases metabolism of caffeine, so this may represent a causal effect of smoking on caffeine intake. Methods We performed Mendelian randomization analyses in the UK Biobank (N = 114 029), the Norwegian HUNT study (N = 56 664) and the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) (N = 78 650). We used the rs16969968 genetic variant as a proxy for smoking heaviness in all studies and rs4410790 and rs2472297 as proxies for coffee consumption in UK Biobank and CGPS. Analyses were conducted using linear regression and meta-analysed across studies. Results Each additional cigarette per day consumed by current smokers was associated with higher coffee consumption (0.10 cups per day, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.17). There was weak evidence for an increase in tea consumption per additional cigarette smoked per day (0.04 cups per day, 95% CI: −0.002, 0.07). There was strong evidence that each additional copy of the minor allele of rs16969968 (which increases daily cigarette consumption) in current smokers was associated with higher coffee consumption (0.16 cups per day, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.20), but only weak evidence for an association with tea consumption (0.04 cups per day, 95% CI: -0.01, 0.09). There was no clear evidence that rs16969968 was associated with coffee or tea consumption in never or former smokers or that the coffee-related variants were associated with cigarette consumption. Conclusions Higher cigarette consumption causally increases coffee intake. This is consistent with faster metabolism of caffeine by smokers, but could also reflect a behavioural effect of smoking on coffee drinking. PMID:29025033

Proxy assessment of health-related quality of life in african american and white respondents with prostate cancer: perspective matters.

PubMed

Pickard, A Simon; Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Knight, Sara J; Knight, Sara L; Sharifi, Roohollah; Wu, Zhigang; Hung, Shih-Ying; Witt, Whitney P; Chang, Chih-Hung; Bennett, Charles L

2009-02-01

An emerging issue in the proxy literature is whether specifying different proxy viewpoints contributes to different health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessments, and if so, how might each perspective be informative in medical decision making. The aims of this study were to determine if informal caregiver assessments of patients with prostate cancer differed when prompted from both the patient perspective (proxy-patient) and their own viewpoint (proxy-proxy), and to identify factors associated with differences in proxy perspectives (ie, the intraproxy gap). Using a cross-sectional design, prostate cancer patients and their informal caregivers were recruited from urology clinics in the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Healthcare System in Chicago. Dyads assessed HRQL using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and EORTC QLQ-C30. Of 87 dyads, most caregivers were female (83%) and were spouses/partners (58%). Mean difference scores between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives were statistically significant for QLQ-C30 physical and emotional functioning, and VAS (all P < 0.05), with the proxy-patient perspective closer to patient self-report. Emotional functioning had the largest difference, mean 6.0 (SD 12.8), an effect size = 0.47. Factors weakly correlated with the intraproxy gap included relationship (spouse) and proxy gender for role functioning, and health literacy (limited/functional) for physical functioning (all P < 0.05, 0.20 < r < 0.35). Meaningful differences between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives on mental health were consistent with a conceptual framework for understanding proxy perspectives. Prompting different proxy viewpoints on patient health could help clinicians identify patients who may benefit from clinical intervention.

Proxy Assessment of Health-Related Quality of Life in African American and White Respondents With Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Pickard, A. Simon; Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Knight, Sara J.; Sharifi, Roohollah; Wu, Zhigang; Hung, Shih-Ying; Witt, Whitney P.; Chang, Chih-Hung; Bennett, Charles L.

2011-01-01

Objectives An emerging issue in the proxy literature is whether specifying different proxy viewpoints contributes to different health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessments, and if so, how might each perspective be informative in medical decision making. The aims of this study were to determine if informal caregiver assessments of patients with prostate cancer differed when prompted from both the patient perspective (proxy-patient) and their own viewpoint (proxy-proxy), and to identify factors associated with differences in proxy perspectives (ie, the intraproxy gap). Research Design and Methods Using a cross-sectional design, prostate cancer patients and their informal caregivers were recruited from urology clinics in the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Healthcare System in Chicago. Dyads assessed HRQL using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and EORTC QLQ-C30. Results Of 87 dyads, most caregivers were female (83%) and were spouses/partners (58%). Mean difference scores between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives were statistically significant for QLQ-C30 physical and emotional functioning, and VAS (all P < 0.05), with the proxy-patient perspective closer to patient self-report. Emotional functioning had the largest difference, mean 6.0 (SD 12.8), an effect size = 0.47. Factors weakly correlated with the intraproxy gap included relationship (spouse) and proxy gender for role functioning, and health literacy (limited/functional) for physical functioning (all P < 0.05, 0.20 < r < 0.35). Conclusions Meaningful differences between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives on mental health were consistent with a conceptual framework for understanding proxy perspectives. Prompting different proxy viewpoints on patient health could help clinicians identify patients who may benefit from clinical intervention. PMID:19169118

Negative communication in psychosis: understanding pathways to poorer patient outcomes.

PubMed

Finnegan, Deirdre; Onwumere, Juliana; Green, Catherine; Freeman, Daniel; Garety, Philippa; Kuipers, Elizabeth

2014-11-01

High expressed emotion (EE) is a robust predictor of elevated rates of relapse and readmission in schizophrenia. However, far less is known about how high EE leads to poorer patient outcomes. This study was designed to examine links between high EE (criticism), affect, and multidimensional aspects of positive symptoms in patients with psychosis. Thirty-eight individuals with nonaffective psychosis were randomly exposed to proxy high-EE or neutral speech samples and completed self-report measures of affect and psychosis symptoms. Patients reported significant increases in anxiety, anger, and distress after exposure to the proxy high-EE speech sample as well as increases in their appraisals of psychosis symptoms: voice controllability, delusional preoccupation, and conviction. These findings offer further evidence of the potential deleterious impact of a negative interpersonal environment on patient symptoms in psychosis.

Traces on the 'Ubaidian Shore: Mid-Holocene Eustasis, Marine Transgression, and Urbanization in the Mesopotamian Delta (Iraq)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournelle, J. R.; Smith, J. R.; Hritz, C.; Nsf Hrrpaa 1045974

2011-12-01

Development and flourit of pre-urban and urban complex societies of southern Mesopotamia (Iraq) during the mid-Holocene took place in the context of Tigris-Euphrates and Karun-Karkheh deltaic progradation on one hand, and marine transgression at the head of the Gulf on the other. Understanding these processes has profound implications for assessing likely resource bioavailability, resource extraction and transport options, population distribution and density, and labour requirements for intensification/ extensification of extraction and production activities during this critical formative period. Multiple attempts have been made to reconstruct the Gulf "shoreline" at various pre-historic and historical periods. Because no systematic coring operations have been undertaken in the region, these attempts have been hampered by the paucity of direct geologic evidence. Conflicting hypotheses based on models of deltaic subsidence, tectonic uplift, and and/or eustatic change were barely testable against scant available cores and archaeologically-derived proxies from a few sites on the western "shore," such as H3, Eridu, Ur, Uruk, and Tell al Oueli. Recently published coring operations in the Iranian Karun-Karkheh delta add considerably to the available corpus of archaeological and geomorphologic data useful for reconstructing the timeline and extent of these processes, especially on the eastern "shore," but these are also bounded in spatial and temporal extent. Multi-scale, multi-sensor processing of remote sensing data and imagery make possible a fuller interpretation of geomorphologic and artifactual evidence bearing on overall shoreline reconstruction from approximately 6,000-3,000 BCE. This paper reports the results of combining interpreted LANDSAT, ASTER, SPOT, CORONA, Digital Globe, and other imagery with multiple derived Digital Elevation Models, thus providing stochastic boundaries for re-interpreting geological and archaeological point data, as well as new pilot data collected in 2010-2011. The result is better understanding of the likely location, extent, and impact of maximum mid-Holocene marine incursion into lower Mesopotamia and Khuzistan associated with deltaic geomorphological and ecological evolution, with implications for assessing site locations, agricultural potential, and water transport routes available to the world's oldest-known cities.

Multi-centennial Record of Labrador Sea Primary Productivity and Sea-Ice Variability Archived in Coralline Algal Ba/Ca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Phoebe; Halfar, Jochen; Adey, Walter; Hetzinger, Steffen; Zack, Thomas; Moore, Kent; Wortmann, Ulrich; Williams, Branwen; Hou, Alicia

2017-04-01

Arctic sea-ice thickness and concentration have dropped by approximately 9% per decade since 1978. Concurrent with this sea-ice decline is an increase in rates of phytoplankton productivity, driven by shoaling of the mixed layer and enhanced transmittance of solar radiation into the surface ocean. This has recently been confirmed by phytoplankton studies in Arctic and Subarctic basins that have revealed earlier timing, prolonged duration, and increased primary productivity of the spring phytoplankton bloom. However, difficulties of navigating in remote ice-laden waters and harsh polar climates have often resulted in short and incomplete records of in-situ plankton abundance in the northwestern Labrador Sea. Alternatively, information of past ocean productivity may be gained through the study of trace nutrient distributions in the surface water column. Investigations of dissolved barium (Ba) concentrations in the Arctic reveal significant depletions of Ba in surface seawaters due to biological scavenging during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Here we apply a barium-to-calcium (Ba/Ca) and carbon isotope (δ13C) multiproxy approach to long-lived crustose coralline algae in order to reconstruct an annually-resolved multi-centennial record of Labrador Sea productivity related to sea-ice variability in Labrador, Canada that extends well into the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1646 AD). The crustose coralline alga Clathromorphum compactum is a shallow marine calcareous plant that is abundant along the eastern Canadian coastline, and produces annual growth increments which allow for the precise calendar dating and geochemical sampling of hard tissue. Algal Ba/Ca ratios can serve as a promising new proxy for surface water productivity, demonstrating a close correspondence to δ13C that does not suffer from the anthropogenically-induced carbon isotope decline (ex. Suess Effect) beginning in the 1960s. Coralline algal Ba/Ca demonstrates statistically significant correlations to both observational and proxy records of sea-ice extent and transport variability, and shows a persistent pattern of covariability that is broadly consistent with the timing and phasing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Lower algal Ba/Ca values are interpreted as increased productivity (via biological scavenging) coinciding with warming sea surface temperatures and melting of sea-ice, and vice versa. This relationship is further supported by negative correlations between algal Ba/Ca and spatially averaged chlorophyll α concentrations determined from Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS; 1998 - 2009) ocean colour data. Extended comparisons to a multi-centennial tree-ring proxy AMO index demonstrates more frequent positive Ba/Ca excursions (indicating reduced productivity) associated with AMO cool phases during the Little Ice Age, followed by a step-wise decline in Ba/Ca (indicating increasing productivity) from 1910 to present levels - unprecedented in the last 365 years. Our multi-centennial record of coralline algal Ba/Ca in the Subarctic northwest Atlantic demonstrates a long-term increasing trend in primary productivity that is in agreement with recent satellite-based productivity in the Arctic Ocean. This ongoing increase in phytoplankton productivity is expected to fundamentally alter marine biodiversity and trophic dynamics as warming and freshening of the surface layer is projected to intensify over the coming century.

High-resolution multiproxy climate reconstruction for southern South America since 1000 AD: LOTRED-SA, a new IGBP-PAGES initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiefer, T.

2006-12-01

Regional high-resolution multi-proxy climate reconstructions and associated uncertainties for the last ca. 1000 years is a priority area of future research within the Past Global Changes project of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP-PAGES). Considerable progress has been made in the reconstruction techniques, in the handling of a wide range of high- and low-frequency proxy data, and in the quantity and quality of proxy data sets available at continental and northern hemispheric or global scale. Regional reconstructions are particularly important since regional climate change and extremes exhibit much larger amplitudes than hemispherical and global reconstructions. LOTRED-SA (Long-Term climate REconstruction and Dynamics of southern South America is a new collaborative long-term initiative under the umbrella of PAGES and will involve many research groups from different countries. The initiative seeks (i) to collate the large number of disperse already existing and new paleoclimate data sets (documentary data, early instrumental data, data from tree rings, glaciers and ice cores, high resolution marine and lake sediments, pollen data of peat cores etc.) for the last ca. 1000 years available for South America, and (ii) to use the Mann et al. (1998, Nature), Luterbacher et al. (2004, Science) and Moberg et al. (2005, Nature) methodologies to work towards a regional reconstruction at different temporal and spatial resolution with associated uncertainties for southern South America. This contribution reports on the state-of-the-art and the scientific highlights of the first LOTRED-SA science conference (October 2006 in Mendoza, Argentina).

Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

PubMed Central

Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T.

2015-01-01

Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

Ocean and atmosphere teleconnections modulate east tropical Pacific productivity at late to middle Pleistocene terminations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diz, Paula; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Bernárdez, Patricia; Pérez-Arlucea, Marta; Hall, Ian R.

2018-07-01

The modern Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) is a key oceanographic region for regulating the Earth's climate system, accounting for between 5-10% of global marine production whilst also representing a major source of carbon dioxide efflux to the atmosphere. Changes in ocean dynamics linked to the nutrient supply from the Southern Ocean have been suggested to have played a dominant role in regulating EEP productivity over glacial-interglacial timescales of the past 500 ka. Yet, the full extent of the climate and oceanic teleconnections and the mechanisms promoting the observed increase of productivity occurring at glacial terminations remain poorly understood. Here we present multi-proxy, micropaleontological, geochemical and sedimentological records from the easternmost EEP to infer changes in atmospheric patterns and oceanic processes potentially influencing regional primary productivity over glacial-interglacial cycles of the mid-late Pleistocene (∼0-650 ka). These proxy data support a leading role for the north-south migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in shaping past productivity variability in the EEP. Productivity increases during glacial periods and notably peaks at major and "extra" glacial terminations (those occurring 1-2 precession cycles after some major terminations) coincident with the inferred southernmost position of the ITCZ. The comparison of our reconstructions with proxy records of climate variability suggests the intensification of related extratropical atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections during deglaciation events. These processes may have re-activated the supply of southern sourced nutrients to the EEP, potentially contributing to enhanced productivity in the EEP and thus counterbalancing the oceanic carbon dioxide outgassing at glacial terminations.

Investigating the Predictive Roles of Working Memory and IQ in Academic Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alloway, Tracy Packiam; Alloway, Ross G.

2010-01-01

There is growing evidence for the relationship between working memory and academic attainment. The aim of the current study was to investigate whether working memory is simply a proxy for IQ or whether there is a unique contribution to learning outcomes. The findings indicate that children's working memory skills at 5 years of age were the best…

Intelligence Makes People Think like Economists: Evidence from the General Social Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, Bryan; Miller, Stephen C.

2010-01-01

Education is by far the strongest predictor of whether a non-economist will share the economic beliefs of the average economist. (Caplan, 2001) Is the effect of education as large as it seems? Or is education largely a proxy for cognitive ability? Using data from the General Social Survey (GSS), we show that the estimated effect of education…

Overcoming systemic roadblocks to sustainability: The evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies

PubMed Central

Beddoe, Rachael; Costanza, Robert; Farley, Joshua; Garza, Eric; Kent, Jennifer; Kubiszewski, Ida; Martinez, Luz; McCowen, Tracy; Murphy, Kathleen; Myers, Norman; Ogden, Zach; Stapleton, Kevin; Woodward, John

2009-01-01

A high and sustainable quality of life is a central goal for humanity. Our current socio-ecological regime and its set of interconnected worldviews, institutions, and technologies all support the goal of unlimited growth of material production and consumption as a proxy for quality of life. However, abundant evidence shows that, beyond a certain threshold, further material growth no longer significantly contributes to improvement in quality of life. Not only does further material growth not meet humanity's central goal, there is mounting evidence that it creates significant roadblocks to sustainability through increasing resource constraints (i.e., peak oil, water limitations) and sink constraints (i.e., climate disruption). Overcoming these roadblocks and creating a sustainable and desirable future will require an integrated, systems level redesign of our socio-ecological regime focused explicitly and directly on the goal of sustainable quality of life rather than the proxy of unlimited material growth. This transition, like all cultural transitions, will occur through an evolutionary process, but one that we, to a certain extent, can control and direct. We suggest an integrated set of worldviews, institutions, and technologies to stimulate and seed this evolutionary redesign of the current socio-ecological regime to achieve global sustainability. PMID:19240221

17 CFR 240.14a-1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... a meeting, the earliest date they may be used to effect corporate action. (f) Proxy. The term “proxy... proxy; or (iii) The furnishing of a form of proxy or other communication to security holders under... proxy; or (iv) A communication by a security holder who does not otherwise engage in a proxy...

12 CFR 569.4 - Proxy soliciting material.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proxy soliciting material. 569.4 Section 569.4 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.4 Proxy soliciting material. No solicitation of a proxy shall be made by means of any statement, form of proxy...

Expression of Aleutian Low variations by a proxy record of precipitation oxygen isotopes in the Matanuska-Susitna region on Cook Inlet, south central Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Engstrom, D. R.

2017-12-01

North Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes strongly influence the climatology of Alaska by altering the strength and position of the Aleutian Low. During the past decade, the development of oxygen isotope proxy records that reflect the isotope composition of precipitation has provided substantial evidence of hydroclimatic variability in Alaska in response to Aleutian Low variations during the Holocene. However, a clear understanding of how the isotopic composition of precipitation reflects Aleutian Low variations remains uncertain because modern and proxy observations and modeling studies provide different predictions for regions (coastal and interior), elevations (0 to 5000 m), and time-scales (seasonal to century) that cannot be adequately tested by existing data. Precipitation isotope proxy records from Mount Logan, Denali, Jellybean Lake and Horse Trail Fen provide valuable perspectives at high elevation and interior (leeward) locations but no data has been available from near sea level on the coastal (windward) side of the Alaska and Chugach Mountain Ranges. Here we present newly recovered marl lake sediment cores from the Matanuska-Susitna region of Knik Arm on Cook Inlet, near Wasilla, 50 km north of Anchorage, AK that provide complete de-glacial and Holocene records of precipitation oxygen isotopes. Geochronology is underway based on identification of known tephras and AMS radiocarbon dating of terrestrial macrofossils. Modern and historic sediments are dated by 210Pb. The groundwater fed site is hydrologically open, unaffected by evaporation, has exceptionally high rates of marl sedimentation and preliminary results indicate clearly defined oxygen isotope excursions in the late 1970's and early 1940's, periods when North Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of the Aleutian Low is known to have undergone shifts. These results help to evaluate contrasting models of atmospheric circulation and associated isotope fractionation which is critical for proxy interpretation of paleo-records.

Reconstructing past occupational exposures: how reliable are women's reports of their partner's occupation?

PubMed

Tagiyeva, Nara; Semple, Sean; Devereux, Graham; Sherriff, Andrea; Henderson, John; Elias, Peter; Ayres, Jon G

2011-06-01

Most of the evidence on agreement between self- and proxy-reported occupational data comes from interview-based studies. The authors aimed to examine agreement between women's reports of their partner's occupation and their partner's own description using questionnaire-based data collected as a part of the prospective, population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Information on present occupation was self-reported by women's partners and proxy-reported by women through questionnaires administered at 8 and 21 months after the birth of a child. Job titles were coded to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC2000) using software developed by the University of Warwick (Computer-Assisted Structured Coding Tool). The accuracy of proxy-report was expressed as percentage agreement and kappa coefficients for four-, three- and two-digit SOC2000 codes obtained in automatic and semiautomatic (manually improved) coding modes. Data from 6016 couples at 8 months and 5232 couples at 21 months postnatally were included in the analyses. The agreement between men's self-reported occupation and women's report of their partner's occupation in fully automatic coding mode at four-, three- and two-digit code level was 65%, 71% and 77% at 8 months and 68%, 73% and 76% at 21 months. The accuracy of agreement was slightly improved by semiautomatic coding of occupations: 73%/73%, 78%/77% and 83%/80% at 8/21 months respectively. While this suggests that women's description of their partners' occupation can be used as a valuable tool in epidemiological research where data from partners are not available, this study revealed no agreement between these young women and their partners at the two-digit level of SOC2000 coding in approximately one in five cases. Proxy reporting of occupation introduces a statistically significant degree of error in classification. The effects of occupational misclassification by proxy reporting in retrospective occupational epidemiological studies based on questionnaire data should be considered.

A pedigree-based proxy measure of genetic predisposition of drinking and alcohol use among female sex workers in China: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Yu; Qiao, Shan; Su, Shaobing; Zhang, Liying; Zhou, Yuejiao

2017-02-01

Scientific evidence has suggested that genetic factors accounted for more than half of the vulnerability of developing alcohol use problems. However, collecting genetic data poses a significant challenge for most population-based behavioral studies. The aim of this study was to assess the utilities of a pedigree-based proxy measure of genetic predisposition of drinking (GPD) and its effect on alcohol use behaviors as well as its interactions with personal and environmental factors. In the current study, cross-sectional data were collected from 700 female sex workers (FSW) in Guangxi, China. Participants provided information on a pedigree-based proxy measure of GPD and their alcohol use behaviors. Chi-square and independent t-test was applied for examining the bivariate associations between GPD and alcohol use behaviors; multivariate and ordinal regression models were used to examine the effect of GPD on alcohol use. This study found that women with a higher composite score of GPD tended to have a higher risk of alcohol use problem compared to their counterparts (p < .05). GPD was a significant predictor of alcohol use problems (p < .05), especially among women who had mental health issues or lack of health cares. The pedigree-based measure provided a useful proxy of GPD among participants. Both FSW's mental health and health care access interact with GPD and affect their drinking patterns. By understanding the genetic basis of alcohol use, we can develop scalable and efficacious interventions that will take into consideration the individual risk profile and environmental influences.

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

On Quasi-biennial Oscillations in Chromospheric Macrospicules and Their Potential Relation to the Global Solar Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R.

2018-04-01

This study aims to provide further evidence for the potential influence of the global solar magnetic field on localized chromospheric jets, the macrospicules (MS). To find a connection between the long-term variation of properties of MS and other solar activity proxies, including, e.g., the temporal variation of the frequency shift of solar global oscillations, sunspot area, etc., a database overarching seven years of observations was compiled. This database contains 362 MS, based on observations at the 30.4 nm of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Three of the five investigated physical properties of MS show a clear long-term temporal variation after smoothing the raw data. Wavelet analysis of the temporal variation of maximum length, maximum area, and average velocity is carried out. The results reveal a strong pattern of periodicities at around 2 years (also referred to as quasi-biennial oscillations—QBOs). A comparison with solar activity proxies that also possess the properties of QBOs provides some interesting features: the minima and maxima of QBOs of MS properties occur at around the same epoch as the minima and maxima of these activity proxies. For most of the time span investigated, the oscillations are out of phase. This out-of-phase behavior was also corroborated by a cross-correlation analysis. These results suggest that the physical processes that generate and drive the long-term evolution of the global solar activity proxies may be coupled to the short-term local physical processes driving the macrospicules, and, therefore modulate the properties of local dynamics.

The stomatal CO2 proxy does not saturate at high atmospheric CO2 concentrations: evidence from stomatal index responses of Araucariaceae conifers.

PubMed

Haworth, Matthew; Elliott-Kingston, Caroline; McElwain, Jennifer C

2011-09-01

The inverse relationship between the number of stomata on a leaf surface and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO(2)]) in which the leaf developed allows plants to optimise water-use efficiency (WUE), but it also permits the use of fossil plants as proxies of palaeoatmospheric [CO(2)]. The ancient conifer family Araucariaceae is often represented in fossil floras and may act as a suitable proxy of palaeo-[CO(2)], yet little is known regarding the stomatal index (SI) responses of extant Araucariaceae to [CO(2)]. Four Araucaria species (Araucaria columnaris, A. heterophylla, A. angustifolia and A. bidwillii) and Agathis australis displayed no significant relationship in SI to [CO(2)] below current ambient levels (~380 ppm). However, representatives of the three extant genera within the Araucariaceae (A. bidwillii, A. australis and Wollemia nobilis) all exhibited significant reductions in SI when grown in atmospheres of elevated [CO(2)] (1,500 ppm). Stomatal conductance was reduced and WUE increased when grown under elevated [CO(2)]. Stomatal pore length did not increase alongside reduced stomatal density (SD) and SI in the three araucariacean conifers when grown at elevated [CO(2)]. These pronounced SD and SI reductions occur at higher [CO(2)] levels than in other species with more recent evolutionary origins, and may reflect an evolutionary legacy of the Araucariaceae in the high [CO(2)] world of the Mesozoic Era. Araucariacean conifers may therefore be suitable stomatal proxies of palaeo-[CO(2)] during periods of "greenhouse" climates and high [CO(2)] in the Earth's history.

12 CFR 569.2 - Form of proxies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Form of proxies. 569.2 Section 569.2 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.2 Form of proxies. Every form of proxy shall conform to the following requirements: (a) The proxy shall be revocable at will by...

A rapid method to assess a broad inventory of organic species in marine sediments using ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Radović, Jagoš R; Silva, Renzo C; Snowdon, Ryan W; Brown, Melisa; Larter, Steve; Oldenburg, Thomas B P

2016-06-15

A broad range of organic species in marine sediments is routinely used as biogeochemical proxies of Earth history. These species are typically analyzed using different analytical methods, targeting very specific components and often including time-intensive sample preparation. There is, therefore, a need for a more comprehensive, rapid and high-throughput approach to simultaneously analyze a broad range of known sedimentary polar species and also have a surveillance capability able to identify candidate new species classes. Whole solvent extracts from recently deposited Gulf of Mexico marine sediments were obtained after a simple, one-step extraction. They were analyzed by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), using atmospheric pressure photoionization in positive ion mode (APPI-P), over a broad mass range (m/z 150-1500). From 3000 to over 5000 peaks per sample were assigned molecular formulae, and the majority of assignments (90%) showed an absolute error lower than 200 ppb. The detected species belong to the NO1-7 , N4 O2-8 , O1-9 , HC, N and OS compound classes, including known biomarker species such as pigments (e.g. tetrapyrrole macrocycles and carotenoids) and lipids (e.g. glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, GDGTs), but also compounds of still unknown detailed molecular structure, but with clear potential geochemical relevance. The reported method enables rapid (12 min FTICR-MS analysis time) and simultaneous detection of a broad range of multi-heteroatom, polar organic species in whole sediment extracts. This allows for higher sample throughput, a more comprehensive investigation of sedimentary geochemistry, and potentially the discovery of new components and derivation of novel, multi-species proxies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Multi-Proxy Approach to Reconstruct Climate Variability in the Western Mediterranean across the Penultimate and Last Glacial Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, Y.; Toucanne, S.; Bonnin, L.; Fontanier, C.; Jouet, G.; Tripati, A. K.

2016-12-01

The Mediterranean as a model miniature ocean is an ideal study area for the links between climate change and anoxia. Organic rich-sapropelic deposits punctuate Quaternary sediments series in the basin. These deposits reveal the occurrence of anoxic conditions during times when the circulation of the Mediterranean ocean was deeply perturbed. The `'Nilotic paradigm' proposes anoxia was a direct result of massive inputs of fresh water from the Nile. It is also possible that these sapropels could occur in response to periods of intense rainfall and riverine discharge on the northern Mediterranean coast. To resolve the sequence of events linked to sapropel deposition in the western Mediterranean, we use a multi-proxy (oxygen and carbon isotopes, benthic foraminifera assemblage and trace element geochemistry of foraminifera calcite) approach to examine sediments from the Tyrhennian Sea off the eastern Corsica margin in order to reconstruct climate variability during the penultimate glacial termination, and we compare results to those for the last glacial period. Our preliminary results show increased abundance of epifaunal and deep infaunal benthic species during MIS 5e ( 122-125 kyr BP), accompanied by a rise in Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) using G. bulloides. A sharp decline in SST at 135 kyr BP coincides with Heinrich Stadial 5 in the North Atlantic. We will compare the timing of Mg/Ca-based SST minima and reconstructed water d18O variations to Heinrich Stadials in the North Atlantic in order to infer the mechanisms responsible for cooling in the Tyrrhenian Sea. This analysis should shed light on the proposed atmospheric teleconnection causing cooling of western Mediterranean waters via intensification of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude wind systems.

Multi-proxy palaeoclimate reconstructions from peatlands in southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, Thomas; Hughes, Paul; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van Bellen, Simon; Daley, Tim; Loader, Neil; Street-Perrott, Alayne

2014-05-01

There is a relative paucity of palaeoclimatic archives in South America relative to many other regions of the world. This paucity must be addressed in order to validate climate models and improve our understanding of the global climate system. The southern westerlies represent an important component of climatic variability in the region and, in turn, their migration and changes in their intensity can play a key role in determining whether the Southern Ocean functions as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Increased ventilation of deep waters with elevated concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon, driven by enhanced Ekman transport, leads to increased outgassing of carbon dioxide. However, as instrumental records are limited to the latter half of the twentieth century, little is known about the long-term variability of the southern Westerlies and their subsequent effects. The Peninsula Brunswick and Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego are directly situated in the core path of the southern westerlies during the Austral summer and they are ideally suited for studies of past variability in westerly intensity and position. The region's abundant peatlands are capable of recording these long-term changes, as wind intensity and westerly position affects precipitation and temperature, two key drivers (i.e. P-E) of water-table dynamics in ombrotrophic peatlands. Currently, the peatlands of southern Patagonia represent a relatively unexploited resource in terms of palaeoclimate reconstruction. As a result, we have developed a new regional network of multi-proxy (testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, stable isotopes) archives, supported by high-resolution radiocarbon chronologies, to develop quantitative climate reconstructions for southern South America spanning the last ~2000 years using Sphagnum magellanicum-dominated peat deposits.

New Sedimentary Records from Contourite Drifts on the West Antarctic Continental Margin: Reconstruction of Palaeoenvironmental Changes during the Late Quaternary by Combining an Integrated Chronostratigraphic Approach with Multi-Proxy Investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillenbrand, C. D.; Crowhurst, S.; Channell, J. E. T.; Williams, M.; Hodell, D. A.; Xuan, C.; Allen, C. S.; Ehrmann, W. U.; Graham, A. G. C.; Larter, R. D.

2016-12-01

Giant sediment drifts located on the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the Bellingshausen Sea contain a high-resolution archive of ice sheet history in West Antarctica and of palaeoceanographic changes in the Southern Ocean. However, previous studies on sediment cores recovered from these contourite drifts, including Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 178, were compromised by lack of reliable high-resolution chronological control. This shortcoming is mainly caused by the very low abundance of calcareous microfossils in the sediments that are required for applying radiocarbon dating and stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) stratigraphy. Moreover, sediments assumed to have been deposited during glacial periods consist almost entirely of terrigenous detritus, i.e. they lack even siliceous microfossils that could be utilised for biostratigraphic purposes. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) proposal 732-Full2 aims to obtain continuous, high-resolution records from sites on the West Antarctic sediment drifts and to develop reliable age models for them. The strategy for achieving the second objective is to use a range of chronostratigraphic techniques, including relative geomagnetic palaeointensity (RPI) and δ18O stratigraphy, on sedimentary sequences recovered from the shallowest parts of the drift crests, where the preservation of calcareous microfossils is expected be higher than in deeper water. Here we present preliminary results of multi-proxy investigations on new piston and box cores recovered from the proposed drill sites during site survey investigation cruise JR298 of the RRS James Clark Ross in 2015. Apart from the integrated chronological approach, the new cores augment previous assessments of palaeoenvironmental change on the West Antarctic continental margin during glacial-interglacial cycles of the Late Quaternary.

Multi-Decadal analysis of Global Trends in Microseism Intensity: A Proxy for Changes in Extremal Storm Activity and Oceanic Wave State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, R. E.; Aster, R. C.; Rowe, C. A.

2016-12-01

The Earth's seismic noise spectrum features two globally ubiquitous peaks near 8 and 16 s periods (secondary and primary bands) that arise when storm-generated ocean gravity waves are converted to seismic energy, predominantly into Rayleigh waves. Because of its regionally integrative nature, microseism intensity and other seismographic data from long running sites can provide useful proxies for wave state. Expanding an earlier study of global microseism trends (Aster et al., 2010), we analyze digitally-archived, up-to-date (through late 2016) multi-decadal seismic data from stations of global seismographic networks to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of wave climate over the past >20 years. The IRIS Noise Tool Kit (Bahavair et al., 2013) is used to produce ground motion power spectral density (PSD) estimates in 3-hour overlapping time series segments. The result of this effort is a longer duration and more broadly geographically distributed PSD database than attained in previous studies, particularly for the primary microseism band. Integrating power within the primary and secondary microseism bands enables regional characterization of spatially-integrated trends in wave states and storm event statistics of varying thresholds. The results of these analyses are then interpreted within the context of recognized modes of atmospheric variability, including the particularly strong 2015-2016 El Niño. We note a number of statistically significant increasing trends in both raw microseism power and storm activity occurring at multiple stations in the Northwest Atlantic and Southeast Pacific consistent with generally increased wave heights and storminess in these regions. Such trends in wave activity have the potential to significantly influence coastal environments particularly under rising global sea levels.

Environmental Records from Great Barrier Reef Corals: Inshore versus Offshore Drivers

PubMed Central

Walther, Benjamin D.; Kingsford, Michael J.; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2013-01-01

The biogenic structures of stationary organisms can be effective recorders of environmental fluctuations. These proxy records of environmental change are preserved as geochemical signals in the carbonate skeletons of scleractinian corals and are useful for reconstructions of temporal and spatial fluctuations in the physical and chemical environments of coral reef ecosystems, including The Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We compared multi-year monitoring of water temperature and dissolved elements with analyses of chemical proxies recorded in Porites coral skeletons to identify the divergent mechanisms driving environmental variation at inshore versus offshore reefs. At inshore reefs, water Ba/Ca increased with the onset of monsoonal rains each year, indicating a dominant control of flooding on inshore ambient chemistry. Inshore multi-decadal records of coral Ba/Ca were also highly periodic in response to flood-driven pulses of terrigenous material. In contrast, an offshore reef at the edge of the continental shelf was subject to annual upwelling of waters that were presumed to be richer in Ba during summer months. Regular pulses of deep cold water were delivered to the reef as indicated by in situ temperature loggers and coral Ba/Ca. Our results indicate that although much of the GBR is subject to periodic environmental fluctuations, the mechanisms driving variation depend on proximity to the coast. Inshore reefs are primarily influenced by variable freshwater delivery and terrigenous erosion of catchments, while offshore reefs are dominated by seasonal and inter-annual variations in oceanographic conditions that influence the propensity for upwelling. The careful choice of sites can help distinguish between the various factors that promote Ba uptake in corals and therefore increase the utility of corals as monitors of spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions. PMID:24204743

Changes in monsoon-driven upwelling in the South China Sea over glacial Terminations I and II: a multi-proxy record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadatzki, Henrik; Sarnthein, Michael; Andersen, Nils

2016-06-01

Upwelling intensity in the South China Sea has changed over glacial-interglacial cycles in response to orbital-scale changes in the East Asian Monsoon. Here, we evaluate new multi-proxy records of two sediment cores from the north-eastern South China Sea to uncover millennial-scale changes in winter monsoon-driven upwelling over glacial Terminations I and II. On the basis of U/Th-based speleothem chronology, we compare these changes with sediment records of summer monsoon-driven upwelling east of South Vietnam. Ocean upwelling is traced by reduced (UK'37-based) temperature and increased nutrient and productivity estimates of sea surface waters (δ13C on planktic foraminifera, accumulation rates of alkenones, chlorins, and total organic carbon). Accordingly, strong winter upwelling occurred north-west of Luzon (Philippines) during late Marine Isotope Stage 6.2, Heinrich (HS) and Greenland stadials (GS) HS-11, GS-26, GS-25, HS-1, and the Younger Dryas. During these stadials, summer upwelling decreased off South Vietnam and sea surface salinity reached a maximum suggesting a drop in monsoon rains, concurrent with speleothem records of aridity in China. In harmony with a stadial-to-interstadial see-saw pattern, winter upwelling off Luzon in turn was weak during interstadials, in particular those of glacial Terminations I and II, when summer upwelling culminated east of South Vietnam. Most likely, this upwelling terminated widespread deep-water stratification, coeval with the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. Yet, a synchronous maximum in precipitation fostered estuarine overturning circulation in the South China Sea, in particular as long as the Borneo Strait was closed when sea level dropped below -40 m.

Unveiling exceptional Baltic bog ecohydrology, autogenic succession and climate change during the last 2000 years in CE Europe using replicate cores, multi-proxy data and functional traits of testate amoebae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gałka, Mariusz; Tobolski, Kazimierz; Lamentowicz, Łukasz; Ersek, Vasile; Jassey, Vincent E. J.; van der Knaap, Willem O.; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

2017-01-01

We present the results of high-resolution, multi-proxy palaeoecological investigations of two parallel peat cores from the Baltic raised bog Mechacz Wielki in NE Poland. We aim to evaluate the role of regional climate and autogenic processes of the raised bog itself in driving the vegetation and hydrology dynamics. Based on partly synchronous changes in Sphagnum communities in the two study cores we suggest that extrinsic factors (climate) played an important role as a driver in mire development during the bog stage (500-2012 CE). Using a testate amoebae transfer function, we found exceptionally stable hydrological conditions during the last 2000 years with a relatively high water table and lack of local fire events that allowed for rapid peat accumulation (2.75 mm/year) in the bog. Further, the strong correlation between pH and community-weighted mean of testate amoeba traits suggests that other variables than water-table depth play a role in driving microbial properties under stable hydrological conditions. There is a difference in hydrological dynamics in bogs between NW and NE Poland until ca 1500 CE, after which the water table reconstructions show more similarities. Our results illustrate how various functional traits relate to different environmental variables in a range of trophic and hydrological scenarios on long time scales. Moreover, our data suggest a common regional climatic forcing in Mechacz Wielki, Gązwa and Kontolanrahka. Though it may still be too early to attempt a regional summary of wetness change in the southern Baltic region, this study is a next step to better understand the long-term peatland palaeohydrology in NE Europe.

Holocene tephrostratigraphy in high-latitude peatlands of the Southern Hemisphere: a link through time?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, T. P.; Amesbury, M. J.; Charman, D.; De Vleeeschouwer, F.; Hodgson, D.; Hughes, P. D. M.; Mauquoy, D.; Piotrowska, N.; Royles, J.; van Bellen, S.; Vanneste, H.

2014-12-01

We present preliminary tephrostratigraphic data from south Patagonian peatlands and moss banks from the Antarctic Peninsula that provide greater chronological constraint to Holocene palaeoclimatic records and increase the potential for inter-regional correlation. Relative to the Northern Hemisphere, there is a paucity of high-resolution, robustly dated Holocene palaeoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere, limiting our ability to validate climate models in this region and fully understand variation in the global climate system over time. In the absence of long-term instrumental data, multi-proxy (testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, δ13C, δ18O and δD) palaeoclimatic records from south Patagonian peatlands can provide valuable information about the long-term variability of the southern westerlies, a key component in determining the Southern Ocean's function as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Similarly, multi-proxy palaeoclimatic reconstructions from moss banks provide a unique terrestrial palaeoenvironmental archive from the Antarctic Peninsula, where records of past ecological change are rare and provide vital context for the recent, rapid biotic change recorded since the mid-20th century. Robust chronologies are imperative for the accurate examination of spatial and temporal patterns in Holocene climate variation. Previous work has confirmed the presence of discrete tephra horizons in south Patagonian peatlands and Antarctic Peninsula moss banks but the examination of distal, cryptotephras is currently underemployed as a geochronological tool. The chronological potential of these archives is considerable, given their high and largely continuous accumulation rates and suitability for 14C dating, presenting additional opportunities to refine the ages of major Holocene eruptions. Here, we present initial tephrostratigraphic results from both regions and explore the links between them.

Multi-decadal Records of Ocean Acidification and Toxic Heavy Metal Pollution in Coral Cores from Oahu, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, J.; Tolliver, R.; Field, D. B.; Young, C.; Stafford, G.; Day, R. D.

2016-12-01

Monitoring of the physiological/ecological response of marine calcifying organisms to the combination of lower pH and toxic metal pollutants (e.g. Cu and Sn from boat anti-fouling paints) into the oceans requires detailed knowledge of the rates and spatial distribution of ocean acidification (OA) and trace metal composition over time. Yet, measurement of metal concentrations and carbonate system parameters in the modern ocean from seawater bottle data is patchy (e.g. CDIAC/WOCE Carbon Data; http://cdiac.ornl.gov) and there remain few long-term surface water pH monitoring stations; the two longest continuous records of ocean pH extend back less than 30 years (Bermuda - BATS, 31°40'N, 64°10'W; Hawaii - HOTs, 22°45'N, 158°00'W). Much attention has therefore been focused on trace metal and ocean carbonate system proxy development to allow reconstruction of seawater metal content and pH in the past. Of particular promise is the boron isotope (δ11B) pH-proxy measured in marine calcifying organisms such as coral that can be cored enabling multi-decadal, annual-resolution, records of trace element incorporation and seawater pH to be generated. Here we present continuous Cu/Ca and Sn/Ca records in addition to δ11B data from three coral cores of Porites lutea. collected from waters proximal to Oahu, Hawaii. The diagenetic integrity of samples is verified using X-ray diffraction to assess the degree of calcite replacement. These cores reach a maximum depth of 80 cm and represent approximately 80 years of coral growth and seawater chemistry.

Tropical North Atlantic Coral-Based Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Reconstructions From the Little Ice Age and Early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saenger, C.; Cohen, A.; Oppo, D.; Hubbard, D.

2006-12-01

Understanding the magnitude and spatial extent of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) cooling during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 A.D.; LIA) is important for elucidating low-latitude paleoclimate, but present estimates are poorly constrained. We used Sr/Ca and δ18O variability within the aragonitic skeleton of the coral genus Montastrea to reconstruct SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) during the LIA and early Holocene (EH) in the tropical Atlantic. Four seasonally-resolved coral Sr/Ca records from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Bermuda indicate SST is highly correlated (r2 = 0.94) with modern Montastrea Sr/Ca and mean annual coral extension. A Sr/Ca -SST calibration that combines temperature and growth rate effects on coral Sr/Ca was applied to fossil St. Croix corals to reconstruct Caribbean climate during 5-10 year intervals of the LIA (440 ± 30 yBP) and EH (7200 ± 30; EH). Contrary to previous coral-based LIA proxy reconstructions, we find mean SST during the LIA was similar to today, but approximately 1.2°C cooler during the EH. Both periods exhibited higher amplitude seasonal variability indicating other SST estimates may be seasonally biased. Based on residual coral δ18O, we find the LIA and EH were saltier, which suggests previous cooling estimates of 1-3°C relative to today may be exaggerated by changes in seawater δ18O. Our results are consistent with a southerly migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the LIA, but their corroboration requires longer, high-resolution proxy reconstructions that place our two brief multi-annual coral records from the LIA and EH, respectively, within the context of multi-decadal variability.

Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

2014-12-01

Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

Preboreal climate oscillations in Europe: Wiggle-match dating and synthesis of Dutch high-resolution multi-proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bos, Johanna A. A.; van Geel, Bas; van der Plicht, Johannes; Bohncke, Sjoerd J. P.

2007-08-01

In order to compare environmental and inferred climatic change during the Preboreal in The Netherlands, five terrestrial records were analysed. Detailed multi-proxy analyses including microfossils (e.g., pollen, spores, algae, and fungal spores), macroremains (e.g., seeds, fruits, wood, mosses, etc.), and loss on ignition measurements were carried out with high temporal resolution. To link the five Preboreal records, accurate chronologies were produced by AMS 14C wiggle-match dating. The Dutch records show that following the Lateglacial/Holocene climate warming, birch woodlands expanded between 11,530 and 11,500 cal BP during the Friesland Phase of the Preboreal. After the Friesland Phase, two distinct climatic shifts could be inferred: (1) around 11,430-11,350 cal BP the expansion of birch forests was interrupted by a dry continental phase with open grassland vegetation, the Rammelbeek Phase. This phase was coeval with the coldest part of the Preboreal oscillation (PBO) as observed in the δ 18O record of the Greenland ice-core records and has been attributed to a large meltwater flux that resulted in a temporary decrease of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. (2) At the start of the Late Preboreal, between 11,270 and 11,210 cal BP, a sudden shift to a more humid climate occurred and birch forests expanded again. A simultaneous increase in the cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be suggests that these changes in climate and vegetation were forced by a sudden decline in solar activity. Expansion of pine occurred during the later part of the Late Preboreal. At the onset of the Boreal, between 10,770 and 10,700 cal BP, dense woodlands with hazel, oak, elm and pine started to develop in The Netherlands.

System Support for Forensic Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

A Mid-Holocene Relative Sea-Level Stack, New Jersey, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Walker, J. S.; Kemp, A.; Shaw, T. J.; Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

Most high resolution (decimeter- and decadal-scale) relative sea-level (RSL) records using salt-marsh microfossils as a proxy only extend through the Common Era, limiting our understanding of driving mechanisms of RSL change and how sea-level is influenced by changing climate. Records beyond the Common Era are limited by the depth of continuous sequences of salt-marsh peat suitable for high resolution reconstructions, as well as contamination by local processes such as sediment compaction. In contrast, sequences of basal peats have produced compaction-free RSL records through the Holocene, but at a low resolution (meter- and centennial-scale). We devise a new Multi-Proxy Presence/Absence Method (MP2AM) to develop a mid-Holocene RSL stack. We stack a series of 1 m basal peat cores that overlap along a uniform elevational gradient above an incompressible basal sand. We analyzed three sea-level indicators from 14 cores: foraminifera, testate amoebae, and stable carbon isotope geochemistry. To reconstruct RSL, this multi-proxy approach uses the timesaving presence/absence of forams and testates to determine the elevation of the highest occurrence of forams and the lowest occurrence of testates in each basal core. We use stable carbon isotope geochemistry to determine the C3/C4 vegetation boundary in each core. We develop age-depth models for each core using a series of radiocarbon dates. The RSL records from each 1 m basal core are combined to create a stack or, in effect, one long core of salt-marsh material. This method removes the issue of compaction to create a continuous RSL record to address temporal changes and periods of climate and sea-level variability. We reconstruct a southern NJ mid-Holocene RSL record from Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, where Kemp et al. (2013) completed a 2500 yr RSL record using a foraminifera-based transfer function approach. Preliminary radiocarbon dates suggest the basal sequence is at least 4246-4408 cal yrs BP. Presence/absence of forams and testates and the transition of C3/C4 vegetation is identified in each core and constrained with radiocarbon dating. A short core with full counts of forams and testates is used to test the new method and compare with the traditional foraminifera-based transfer function approach and the local tide gauge record.

Reconstructing Holocene glacier activity at Langfjordjøkelen, Arctic Norway, using multi-proxy fingerprinting of distal glacier-fed lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittmeier, Hella E.; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; Trachsel, Mathias

2015-04-01

Late Glacial and Holocene glacier fluctuations are important indicators of climate variability in the northern polar region and contain knowledge vital to understanding and predicting present and future climate changes. However, there still is a lack of robustly dated terrestrial climate records from Arctic Norway. Here, we present a high-resolution relative glacier activity record covering the past ∼10,000 cal. a BP from the northern outlet of the Langfjordjøkelen ice cap in Arctic Norway. This record is reconstructed from detailed geomorphic mapping, multi-proxy sedimentary fingerprinting and analyses of distal glacier-fed lake sediments. We used Principal Component Analysis to characterize sediments of glacial origin and trace them in a chain of downstream lakes. Of the variability in the sediment record of the uppermost Lake Jøkelvatnet, 73% can be explained by the first Principal Component axis and tied directly to upstream glacier erosion, whereas the glacial signal becomes weaker in the more distal Lakes Store Rundvatnet and Storvatnet. Magnetic susceptibility and titanium count rates were found to be the most suitable indicators of Holocene glacier activity in the distal glacier-fed lakes. The complete deglaciation of the valley of Sør-Tverrfjorddalen occurred ∼10,000 cal. a BP, followed by a reduced or absent glacier during the Holocene Thermal Optimum. The Langfjordjøkelen ice cap reformed with the onset of the Neoglacial ∼4100 cal. a BP, and the gradually increasing glacier activity culminated at the end of the Little Ice Age in the early 20th century. Over the past 2000 cal. a BP, the record reflects frequent high-amplitude glacier fluctuations. Periods of reduced glacier activity were centered around 1880, 1600, 1250 and 950 cal. a BP, while intervals of increased glacier activity occurred around 1680, 1090, 440 and 25 cal. a BP. The large-scale Holocene glacier activity of the Langfjordjøkelen ice cap is consistent with regional temperature proxy reconstructions and glacier variability across Norway. Long-term changes in the extent of the northern outlet of the Langfjordjøkelen ice cap largely followed trends in regional summer temperatures, whereas winter season atmospheric variability may have triggered decadal-scale glacial fluctuations and generally affected the amplitude of glacier events.

Troubling the Boundaries: Overcoming Methodological Challenges in a Multi-Sectoral and Multi-Jurisdictional HIV/HCV Policy Scoping Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hare, Kathleen A.; Dubé, Anik; Marshall, Zack; Gahagan, Jacqueline; Harris, Gregory E.; Tucker, Maryanne; Dykeman, Margaret; MacDonald, Jo-Ann

2016-01-01

Policy scoping reviews are an effective method for generating evidence-informed policies. However, when applying guiding methodological frameworks to complex policy evidence, numerous, unexpected challenges can emerge. This paper details five challenges experienced and addressed by a policy trainee-led, multi-disciplinary research team, while…

Neodymium and carbon isotopic fingerprints of warm Pliocene circulation throughout the deep Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Scher, H. D.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.

2013-12-01

The mid-Piacenzian age of the Pliocene is the most recent interval in Earth's history to sustain global warmth within the range predicted for the 21st century. To understand this interval, the USGS PRISM Project has developed a reconstruction of global conditions at 3.264-3.025 Ma, which includes a significant North Atlantic warm SST anomaly coupled with increased evaporation. Warm anomalies are also detected in the deep ocean as far as 46°S, suggesting that enhanced meridional overturning circulation may have been responsible for more southerly penetration of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). However, deep temperature proxies are not diagnostic of water mass, and some coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in NADW production in the 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future climate. We present a new multi-proxy synthesis of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the PRISM interval, using the neodymium isotopic composition (ɛNd) of fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source and the δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age. This reconstruction utilizes both new and previously published data from 11 DSDP and ODP sites in the North Atlantic (Site 610) and along depth transects from equatorial Ceara Rise, southern mid-latitude Walvis Ridge, and south Atlantic Meteor Rise/Agulhas Ridge. Published data from ferromanganese crusts constrain Pliocene Antarctic deep waters at ~ ɛNd = -8, distinct from the less radiogenic ɛNd = -11.5 that characterizes Pliocene northern component water (NCW). These values fingerprint northern and southern sources throughout the Atlantic basin. Pliocene fish teeth from Site 610 (2400 m water depth) and from four Ceara Rise sites (3000-4300 m) preserve distinctly North Atlantic ɛNd. When averaged across the PRISM interval, mean values for these five sites range from ɛNd = -10.97 to -10.25, and the Pliocene depth transect closely mirrors the structure of the modern column, indicating that Ceara Rise was dominantly influenced by NCW at all depths. In contrast, Walvis Ridge water column structure was significantly different in the Pliocene. Today, a core of NADW between 1800 and 3500 m overlies abyssal southern component water (SCW). During the Pliocene, however, sites at 4000 and 4700 m were influenced exclusively by NCW, with PRISM mean ɛNd of -11.14 and -11.45. In contrast, mean ɛNd = -9.86 indicates that the shallowest site (2500 m), which sits in the core of NADW today, was instead influenced by SCW throughout the PRISM interval. The Meteor Rise/Agulhas Ridge transect provides further evidence for south Atlantic restructuring in the warm Pliocene. At the deepest Agulhas Ridge site (3700 m), PRISM mean ɛNd = -8.47, an unequivocally SCW signature. Today, the shallower Meteor Rise sites (2000 and 2500 m) are within NADW, yet mean PRISM ɛNd = -7.68 and -7.82 - more radiogenic than the SCW end member - raising the possibility that south Atlantic intermediate waters incorporated both Pacific and Antarctic components in the Pliocene.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: A multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4??C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Millennial-scale climate variations in western Mediterranean during late Pleistocene-early Holocene: multi-proxy analyses from Padul peatbog (southern Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Toney, Jaime L.; Anderson, R. Scott; Kaufman, Darrell; Bright, Jordon; Sachse, Dirk

2017-04-01

Padul peatbog, located in southern Iberian Peninsula (western Mediterranean region) is a unique area for palaeoenvironmental studies due to its location, between arid and temperate climates. Previous studies showed that the Padul peatbog contains a continuous record of the last ca. 0.8-1 Ma, so it is an extraordinary site to identify glacial-interglacial phases as well as Heinrich and D-O events, linked to orbital- and suborbital-scale variations. In 2015, a new 42 m long core was taken from this area, providing an excellent sediment record probably for the last ca. 300,000 years. This study is focused on the paleoenvironmental and climatic reconstruction of the late Pleistocene and the early Holocene (ca. from 50,000 to 9,500 cal. yrs BP), using AMS 14C and AAR dating, high-resolution pollen analysis, lithology, continuous XRF-scanning, X-ray diffraction, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry. These different proxies provide information not only about the regional environment change but also about local changes in the conditions of the Padul lake/peatbog due to variations in water temperature, pH or nutrients.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective.

PubMed

Dowsett, Harry J; Robinson, Marci M

2009-01-13

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4 degrees C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Gastric emptying of multi-particulate dosage forms.

PubMed

Newton, J Michael

2010-08-16

The evidence in the literature for the concept that multi-particulate dosage forms below a specific size empty from the stomach as if they were liquids and hence have the potential to provide the best solution to the formulation of controlled release oral dosage forms, has been considered. There is some evidence that particles less than 1.0mm provide a more rapid response than larger size particles but there is also evidence that this is not always the case and that rapid and reproducible gastric emptying of small particles does not always occur when they are administered. There is strong evidence that food can delay the gastric emptying of multi-particulate systems. Some of the misconception for gastric emptying performance of multi-particulate system is shown to be related to the limitation of the study design and limitation of the way the data is processed. Nevertheless, there is clear evidence that multi-particulate systems can provide effective oral controlled release dosage forms. There is still some way to go with experimental techniques which would allow a definitive answer to the issue of how the variability of the gastric emptying of multi-particulate systems of less than 2.0mm arises. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya. NBER Working Paper No. 14707

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dupas, Pascaline

2009-01-01

I use a randomized experiment to test whether information can change sexual behavior among teenagers in Kenya. Providing information on the relative risk of HIV infection by partner's age led to a 28% decrease in teen pregnancy, an objective proxy for the incidence of unprotected sex. Self-reported sexual behavior data suggests substitution away…

Quantile Treatment Effects of College Quality on Earnings: Evidence from Administrative Data in Texas. NBER Working Paper No. 18068

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Rodney J.; Li, Jing; Lovenheim, Michael F.

2012-01-01

This paper uses administrative data on schooling and earnings from Texas to estimate the effect of college quality on the distribution of earnings. We proxy college quality using the college sector from which students graduate and focus on identifying how graduating from UT-Austin, Texas A\\&M or a community college affects the distribution of…

Branched GDGT distributions in lakes from Mexico and Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, A.; Werne, J. P.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Pérez, L.; Caballero, M.

2017-12-01

The potential to use bacterial derived branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) to reconstruct mean annual air temperatures from soils sparked significant interest in the terrestrial paleoclimate community, where a high-fidelity paleotemperature proxy is desperately needed. While the source of brGDGTs remains unknown (but are potentially attributed to the highly diverse phylum Acidobacteria), much evidence points to the potential for these bacteria to live not only in the terrestrial environment but also in lake water and sediments as well. Though the application of brGDGTs to lacustrine reconstructions is promising, the initial applications of soil-based MBT/CBT proxy to lacustrine sediments typically resulted in lower temperatures than were reasonable, likely due to additions from lacustrine bacterial brGDGTs. Here, we present data from a suite of >100 lakes in Mexico and Central America, producing a regional core-top calibration different from those developed in other regions. Results indicate a significant role for regional differences in controlling the brGDGTs distribution, likely due to different brGDGT-producing microbial communities thriving under varying environmental conditions. Rigorous development of brGDGT based proxies will improve our understanding of the source and applicability of these biomarkers, and increase confidence in the accuracy of paleotemperature reconstructions to numerous lacustrine records in the region.

Machine-learning techniques for geochemical discrimination of 2011 Tohoku tsunami deposits

PubMed Central

Kuwatani, Tatsu; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato; Watanabe, Takahiro; Ogawa, Yasumasa; Komai, Takeshi; Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi

2014-01-01

Geochemical discrimination has recently been recognised as a potentially useful proxy for identifying tsunami deposits in addition to classical proxies such as sedimentological and micropalaeontological evidence. However, difficulties remain because it is unclear which elements best discriminate between tsunami and non-tsunami deposits. Herein, we propose a mathematical methodology for the geochemical discrimination of tsunami deposits using machine-learning techniques. The proposed method can determine the appropriate combinations of elements and the precise discrimination plane that best discerns tsunami deposits from non-tsunami deposits in high-dimensional compositional space through the use of data sets of bulk composition that have been categorised as tsunami or non-tsunami sediments. We applied this method to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and to background marine sedimentary rocks. After an exhaustive search of all 262,144 (= 218) combinations of the 18 analysed elements, we observed several tens of combinations with discrimination rates higher than 99.0%. The analytical results show that elements such as Ca and several heavy-metal elements are important for discriminating tsunami deposits from marine sedimentary rocks. These elements are considered to reflect the formation mechanism and origin of the tsunami deposits. The proposed methodology has the potential to aid in the identification of past tsunamis by using other tsunami proxies. PMID:25399750

Linking Fossil Fish Cyclicity and Paleoenvironmental Proxies in the mid-Devonian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grogan, D.; Whiteside, J. H.; Trewin, N. H.; Johnson, J. E.

2009-12-01

The significant radiation of fishes throughout the Devonian, combined with the abundance of well-preserved fossil fish assemblages from this period, provides for a high-resolution record of prevalent fish taxa in the Orcadian basin of North Scotland. In addition to their ability to serve as a lake-level and lake-chemistry proxy, the waxing and waning of dominant fish taxa exhibit a pronounced cyclicity, suggesting they respond to broader climate rhythms. Recent studies of mid-Devonian lacustrine sedimentary sequences have quantitatively demonstrated the presence of Milankovitch cyclicity in geochemical and gamma ray proxy records. Spectral analysis of gamma ray data show a strong obliquity peak usually associated with ice-house conditions; this obliquity signal is unexpected as tropical latitudes in the mid-Devonian are traditionally thought to have been in a greenhouse climate. Geochemical data include the measurement of bulk carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, molecule-specific carbon isotopes of plant biomarkers, and depth ranks from eight sections of the Caithness Flagstone Group of the Orcadian Basin. Evidence for orbital forcing of climate change paired with the fossil fish record provides a unique opportunity to establish an astronomically calibrated timescale for the mid-Devonian, as well as to make a quantitative assessment of the validity of a greenhouse climate existing in the mid-Devonian.

Sensitivity of wetland hydrology to external climate forcing in central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammertsma, Emmy I.; Donders, Timme H.; Pearce, Christof; Cremer, Holger; Gaiser, Evelyn E.; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

2015-11-01

Available proxy records from the Florida peninsula give a varying view on hydrological changes during the late Holocene. Here we evaluate the consistency and sensitivity of local wetland records in relation to hydrological changes over the past 5 ka based on pollen and diatom proxies from peat cores in Highlands Hammock State Park, central Florida. Around 5 cal ka BP, a dynamic floodplain environment is present. Subsequently, a wetland forest establishes, followed by a change to persistent wet conditions between 2.5 and 2.0 ka. Long hydroperiods remain despite gradual succession and basin infilling with maximum wet conditions between 1.3 and 1.0 ka. The wet phase and subsequent strong drying over the last millennium, as indicated by shifts in both pollen and diatom assemblages, can be linked to the early Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, respectively, driven by regionally higher sea-surface temperatures and a temporary northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Changes during the 20th century are the result of constructions intended to protect the Highlands Hammock State Park from wildfires. The multiple cores and proxies allow distinguishing local and regional hydrological changes. The peat records reflect relatively subtle climatic changes that are not evident from regional pollen records from lakes.

Spatial Covariability of Temperature and Hydroclimate as a Function of Timescale During the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKay, N.

2017-12-01

As timescale increases from years to centuries, the spatial scale of covariability in the climate system is hypothesized to increase as well. Covarying spatial scales are larger for temperature than for hydroclimate, however, both aspects of the climate system show systematic changes on large-spatial scales on orbital to tectonic timescales. The extent to which this phenomenon is evident in temperature and hydroclimate at centennial timescales is largely unknown. Recent syntheses of multidecadal to century-scale variability in hydroclimate during the past 2k in the Arctic, North America, and Australasia show little spatial covariability in hydroclimate during the Common Era. To determine 1) the evidence for systematic relationships between the spatial scale of climate covariability as a function of timescale, and 2) whether century-scale hydroclimate variability deviates from the relationship between spatial covariability and timescale, we quantify this phenomenon during the Common Era by calculating the e-folding distance in large instrumental and paleoclimate datasets. We calculate this metric of spatial covariability, at different timescales (1, 10 and 100-yr), for a large network of temperature and precipitation observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (n=2447), from v2.0.0 of the PAGES2k temperature database (n=692), and from moisture-sensitive paleoclimate records North America, the Arctic, and the Iso2k project (n = 328). Initial results support the hypothesis that the spatial scale of covariability is larger for temperature, than for precipitation or paleoclimate hydroclimate indicators. Spatially, e-folding distances for temperature are largest at low latitudes and over the ocean. Both instrumental and proxy temperature data show clear evidence for increasing spatial extent as a function of timescale, but this phenomenon is very weak in the hydroclimate data analyzed here. In the proxy hydroclimate data, which are predominantly indicators of effective moisture, e-folding distance increases from annual to decadal timescales, but does not continue to increase to centennial timescales. Future work includes examining additional instrumental and proxy datasets of moisture variability, and extending the analysis to millennial timescales of variability.

Terrestrial Evidence for Holocene Pluvials in Coastal Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, L.; Simms, A.; Rockwell, T. K.; Peters, R. B.

2016-12-01

In 1861 a series of large storms attributed to a prolonged atmospheric river event impacted the coast of California, inundated large regions of the state for weeks on end, stalled the government, and devastated the economy. A recent report by the USGS, the Arkstorm Report, predicted a similar sized event today could cost the state more than $700 billion in long-term economic losses. The high-resolution sedimentary record from the Santa Barbara Basin indicates 8 flooding events similar to or larger than the 1861 event have occurred in the past 2000 years. However, little terrestrial evidence for these events has been identified to determine coastal impacts or test the completeness of the Santa Barbara Channel record. Here we show evidence from coastal wetlands along the Santa Barbara Channel that alluvial fan progradation events have recurred at least 7 times over the last 7ka. Because most streams in the Transverse ranges flow only during storms, these alluvial fan building events are interpreted to represent large flooding events. We use a chronology derived from over 40 radiocarbon dates from 39 vibracores up to 4m in length, and 7 Geoprobe cores up to 13m in length from Carpinteria Marsh to test whether these alluvial fan progradation events and/or other abrupt stratigraphic changes are synchronous with regionally documented climatic events. We show that a compilation of biological, sedimentological, geochemical, and archeological proxies for flooding, storms, and/or wet climate conditions from sites throughout the southwestern United States demonstrates the difficulty in correlating and interpreting regional Holocene events across variable proxies and geographic regions. Despite this variation, isolating the purely sedimentological proxies (increase in sedimentation rates, increase in grain size, decrease in organic content, etc.) seems to demonstrate a correlation between alluvial fan progradation events in Carpinteria at 0.3-0.9 ka and 3.5 ka and records of wet conditions throughout the western US, while a lack of alluvial fan deposits from 2-3 ka correlates with the Late Holocene Dry Period. Whether these flooding events represent increased occurrences of atmospheric river events, heightened El Nino activity, or longer-term changes in atmospheric conditions remains an open question.

Correspondence of Mesozoic Eustatic Sea-Level Change with Palaeoclimate Proxies: Evidence for Glacio-Eustasy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, M.; Davies, A.; Gréselle, B.

2011-12-01

Large-scale changes in stratigraphic architecture and facies that are brought about by changes in relative sea-level have been the focus of much academic and industry study over the last few decades. The authors, plus numerous colleagues, have studied over 11,000 stratigraphic sections worldwide. By applying biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic calibration in suitable locations from this dataset it is possible to demonstrate over 250 synchronous global sequence stratigraphic events in the Phanerozoic including over 100 in the Mesozoic. This then raises the question - what causes globally synchronous eustatic sea-level change? To answer this question requires an understanding of both the pace and amplitude of the observed eustatic sea-level change. In successions where duration can be deduced from orbital forcing cycles, our observed sea-level changes appear to be relatively rapid - less than 500,000 years, for example, for sea-level rises in the Late Jurassic. The amplitude of such rises is in the order of tens of metres. Such rates and amplitudes as inferred from our global model preclude tectonism as a primary driver and implicate glacio-eustacy as a key driving mechanism, even in supposed "greenhouse times". Given the clear economic importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms driving this eustatic change we have compiled records of key isotopic proxies through the entire Mesozoic in an effort to explore the relationship between global sea-level and palaeoclimate. Our research reveals a clear link between many large-scale maximum flooding events with known episodes of palaeoclimatic warming and between climatic cooling events and lowstand intervals, further implicating glacio-eustacy. In addition to the isotopic proxy evidence we have also compiled direct indicators for the occurrence of cold polar conditions, including the presence of ice sheets, in the Mesozoic (e.g. tillites, glendonites). This has been incorporated into plate tectonic reconstructions in order to explore the relationship with the presence of significant polar land masses. Both isotopic and direct evidence suggest the episodic presence of polar ice sheets for periods previously supposed as ice free and that glacio-eustacy can be suggested as a major driver of Mesozoic eustatic sea-level change.

Estimating population ecology models for the WWW market: evidence of competitive oligopolies.

PubMed

de Cabo, Ruth Mateos; Gimeno, Ricardo

2013-01-01

This paper proposes adapting a particle filtering algorithm to model online Spanish real estate and job search market segments based on the Lotka-Volterra competition equations. For this purpose the authors use data on Internet information searches from Google Trends to proxy for market share. Market share evolution estimations are coherent with those observed in Google Trends. The results show evidence of low website incompatibility in the markets analyzed. Competitive oligopolies are most common in such low-competition markets, instead of the monopolies predicted by theoretical ecology models under strong competition conditions.

A 3400 year paleolimnological record of prehispanic human–environment interactions in the Holmul region of the southern Maya lowlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, David B.; Estrada-Belli, Francisco; Anderson, Lysanna

2015-01-01

The timing, magnitude and drivers of late Holocene environmental change in the Holmul region of the southern Maya lowlands are examined by combining paleoenvironmental and archeological data. Environmental proxy analyses on a ~ 3350 cal yr lacustrine sediment record include pollen, charcoal, loss on ignition, magnetic suscep- tibility, and elemental geochemistry. Archeological evidence is derived from extensive settlement surveys conducted near the study site. Results indicate nearby settlement and agricultural activity taking place in an environment characterized by open forest from around 3350 to 950 cal yr BP. The fire history shows a dramatic increase in burning during the Classic period, possibly reflecting changing agricultural strategies. A distinct band of carbonate deposited from 1270 to 1040 cal yr BP suggests decreased hydrologic input associated with drier conditions. Abrupt changes in proxy data around 940 cal yr BP indicate a cessation of human disturbance and local abandonment of the area.

Does the subjective quality of life of children with specific learning disabilities (SpLD) agree with their parents' proxy reports?

PubMed

Rotsika, V; Coccossis, M; Vlassopoulos, M; Papaeleftheriou, E; Sakellariou, K; Anagnostopoulos, D C; Kokkevi, A; Skevington, S

2011-10-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate agreement between child-parent proxy reports on quality of life (QoL) in children with specific learning disabilities (SpLD) and in a control group of typically developing children. One hundred and sixteen children aged 8-14 years with SpLD, and 312 same age typically developing children with their parents (one or both), respectively, completed the child and parent versions of the KINDL(R) questionnaire. Values were analyzed with ANOVA and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Significant mean differences were found between children with SpLD and their mother's proxy ratings. So, mothers reported significantly lower scores in the dimension of everyday functioning in school, but significantly higher scores regarding the child's physical and emotional well-being. For typically developing children, significant differences between children and parents' proxy ratings were found in physical well-being and self-esteem with both parents reporting higher scores. Concerning ICC, correlations were few and low in the SpLD group but more robust in the typically developing child-parent proxy ratings with values ranging from 0.22 to 0.46. In the case of SpLD, the child's problem area, which is reflected in the KINDL(R) dimension of everyday functioning in school, seems to be an issue of controversial value that may be differentially perceived by children and their mothers. Further, it can be argued that as mothers seemed to perceive in a more negative way the child's QoL at school, they were at the same time attempting to counterbalance their reactions by overestimating the child's physical and emotional well-being. Besides differences, there is a tendency even low for mothers and children with SpLD to converge toward similar perceptions regarding the child's physical and emotional well-being and satisfaction with friends that is showing some rather common understanding of the child's overall well-being and his/her relationships with peers. In the control group, agreement between children and parents seems to be more even and evident. Proxy assessments in children with SpLD and their parents may be useful for planning targeted support interventions for these families.

Cordilleran Ice Sheet meltwater delivery to the coastal waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendy, I. L.; Taylor, M.; Gombiner, J. H.; Hemming, S. R.; Bryce, J. G.; Blichert-Toft, J.

2014-12-01

Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) delivered meltwater to the NE Pacific Ocean off BC and WA via glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), ice rafting and subglacial meltwater discharge. A deglacial glaciomarine sedimentation record is preserved in the well dated ~50-kyr core MD02-2496 (48˚58.47' N, 127˚02.14' W, water depth 1243 m), collected off Vancouver Island. To understand the history of the relationship between the CIS, climate and meltwater discharge, high resolution, multi-proxy geochemical records from the interval that captures the Fraser Glaciation (~30-10 ka) were generated. These proxies include Mg/Ca temperatures and δ18Oseawater from planktonic foraminiferal sp. N. pachyderma and G. bulloides, elemental and organic carbon (Corg) geochemistry of bulk sediments, ɛNd and K/Ar dating of the <63µm fraction. A detailed reconstruction of CIS retreat has been generated based on the source of glaciomarine sediments and ice rafted debris (IRD), as well as evidence for processes such as GLOF events and iceberg discharge. At the Fraser Glaciation initiation (~30 ka) <63µm glaciomarine sediments deposited at MD02-2496 had a ~100 Ma volcanic rock source. The CIS passed over the Vancouver Island continental shelf at Tofino at ~20 ka ~75 km from the site dramatically increasing sedimentation. From ~19 to 17.3 ka GLOFs created cyclic (~80 year) sedimentary packages of ~300 Ma (ɛNd of ~-8) shale associated with terrestrial Corg, and ~100 Ma (ɛNd of ~-3) volcanic sediment associated with marine Corg. The GLOFs were likely to be associated with glacial lake Missoula outburst flooding, occurring during the interval of the coolest ocean temperatures (2-4°C) and most depleted δ18Oseawater (-1.75‰). At 17.3 ka as ocean temperatures increased by ~3°C and δ18Oseawater increased to ~0‰, IRD deposition increased dramatically at the site, terminating abruptly at 16.2 ka. At the Bølling, ocean temperatures rose by > 3°C to 10-12°C in association with an additional IRD event at ~14.8 ka sourced from a ~75 Ma felsic volcanic source, likely the Southern Coast Plutonic Complex. At no point in the δ18Oseawater reconstruction is an obvious meltwater isotopic signature recorded despite the sedimentary evidence for both ice rafting and outburst flooding. Thus CIS meltwater likely entered the NE Pacific Ocean via hyperpycnal flow.

Show me the data: advances in multi-model benchmarking, assimilation, and forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; Kelly, R.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Desai, A. R.; Simkins, J.; Gardella, A.; Serbin, S.

2016-12-01

Researchers want their data to inform carbon cycle predictions, but there are considerable bottlenecks between data collection and the use of data to calibrate and validate earth system models and inform predictions. This talk highlights recent advancements in the PEcAn project aimed at it making it easier for individual researchers to confront models with their own data: (1) The development of an easily extensible site-scale benchmarking system aimed at ensuring that models capture process rather than just reproducing pattern; (2) Efficient emulator-based Bayesian parameter data assimilation to constrain model parameters; (3) A novel, generalized approach to ensemble data assimilation to estimate carbon pools and fluxes and quantify process error; (4) automated processing and downscaling of CMIP climate scenarios to support forecasts that include driver uncertainty; (5) a large expansion in the number of models supported, with new tools for conducting multi-model and multi-site analyses; and (6) a network-based architecture that allows analyses to be shared with model developers and other collaborators. Application of these methods is illustrated with data across a wide range of time scales, from eddy-covariance to forest inventories to tree rings to paleoecological pollen proxies.

Pluvial lakes in the Great Basin of the western United States: a view from the outcrop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, Marith C.; Adams, Kenneth D.; Oviatt, Charles G.; Bacon, Steven N.

2014-01-01

Paleo-lakes in the western United States provide geomorphic and hydrologic records of climate and drainage-basin change at multiple time scales extending back to the Miocene. Recent reviews and studies of paleo-lake records have focused on interpretations of proxies in lake sediment cores from the northern and central parts of the Great Basin. In this review, emphasis is placed on equally important studies of lake history during the past ∼30 years that were derived from outcrop exposures and geomorphology, in some cases combined with cores. Outcrop and core records have different strengths and weaknesses that must be recognized and exploited in the interpretation of paleohydrology and paleoclimate. Outcrops and landforms can yield direct evidence of lake level, facies changes that record details of lake-level fluctuations, and geologic events such as catastrophic floods, drainage-basin changes, and isostatic rebound. Cores can potentially yield continuous records when sampled in stable parts of lake basins and can provide proxies for changes in lake level, water temperature and chemistry, and ecological conditions in the surrounding landscape. However, proxies such as stable isotopes may be influenced by several competing factors the relative effects of which may be difficult to assess, and interpretations may be confounded by geologic events within the drainage basin that were unrecorded or not recognized in a core. The best evidence for documenting absolute lake-level changes lies within the shore, nearshore, and deltaic sediments that were deposited across piedmonts and at the mouths of streams as lake level rose and fell. We review the different shorezone environments and resulting deposits used in such reconstructions and discuss potential estimation errors. Lake-level studies based on deposits and landforms have provided paleohydrologic records ranging from general changes during the past million years to centennial-scale details of fluctuations during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Outcrop studies have documented the integration histories of several important drainage basins, including the Humboldt, Amargosa, Owens, and Mojave river systems, that have evolved since the Miocene within the active tectonic setting of the Great Basin; these histories have influenced lake levels in terminal basins. Many pre-late Pleistocene lakes in the western Great Basin were significantly larger and record wetter conditions than the youngest lakes. Outcrop-based lake-level data provide important checks on core-based proxy interpretations; we discuss four such comparisons. In some cases, such as for Lakes Owens and Manix, outcrop and core data synthesis yields stronger and more complete records; in other cases, such as for Bonneville and Lahontan, conflicts point toward reconsideration of confounding factors in interpretation of core-based proxies.

Do patient and proxy agree? Long-term changes in multiple sclerosis physical impact and walking ability on patient-reported outcome scales.

PubMed

Sonder, Judith M; Balk, Lisanne J; Bosma, Libertje V A E; Polman, Chris H; Uitdehaag, Bernard M J

2014-10-01

Patient-reported outcome scales (PROs) are useful in monitoring changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) over time. Although these scales are reliable and valid measures in longitudinal studies in MS patients, it is unknown what the impact is when obtaining longitudinal data from proxies. The objective of this paper is to compare longitudinal changes in patient and proxy responses on PROs assessing physical impact of MS and walking ability. In a prospective observational study, data on the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29 physical) and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12) were obtained from 137 patient-proxy couples at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Demographic and disease-related variables explaining agreement or disagreement between patients and proxies were investigated using linear regression analyses. Full agreement was found in 56% (MSIS) and 62% (MSWS) of the patient-proxy couples. Complete disagreement was very rare for both scales (2% MSIS, 5% MSWS). When patients were more positive than proxies, a higher age, longer disease duration, longer patient-proxy relationship and increased levels of depression, anxiety and caregiver burden in proxies were observed. In the majority of the patient-proxy couples there was agreement. Proxies can serve as a valuable source of information, but caution remains essential when using scores from proxies. © The Author(s), 2014.

12 CFR 569.3 - Holders of proxies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Holders of proxies. 569.3 Section 569.3 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.3 Holders of proxies. No proxy of a mutual savings association with a term greater than eleven months or solicited at...

New directions in hydro-climatic histories: observational data recovery, proxy records and the atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the earth (ACRE) initiative in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Fiona; Allan, Rob; Switzer, Adam D.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Wasson, Robert James; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Gartner, Richard

2015-12-01

The value of historic observational weather data for reconstructing long-term climate patterns and the detailed analysis of extreme weather events has long been recognized (Le Roy Ladurie, 1972; Lamb, 1977). In some regions however, observational data has not been kept regularly over time, or its preservation and archiving has not been considered a priority by governmental agencies. This has been a particular problem in Southeast Asia where there has been no systematic country-by-country method of keeping or preserving such data, the keeping of data only reaches back a few decades, or where instability has threatened the survival of historic records. As a result, past observational data are fragmentary, scattered, or even absent altogether. The further we go back in time, the more obvious the gaps. Observational data can be complimented however by historical documentary or proxy records of extreme events such as floods, droughts and other climatic anomalies. This review article highlights recent initiatives in sourcing, recovering, and preserving historical weather data and the potential for integrating the same with proxy (and other) records. In so doing, it focuses on regional initiatives for data research and recovery - particularly the work of the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth's (ACRE) Southeast Asian regional arm (ACRE SEA) - and the latter's role in bringing together disparate, but interrelated, projects working within this region. The overarching goal of the ACRE SEA initiative is to connect regional efforts and to build capacity within Southeast Asian institutions, agencies and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to improve and extend historical instrumental, documentary and proxy databases of Southeast Asian hydroclimate, in order to contribute to the generation of high-quality, high-resolution historical hydroclimatic reconstructions (reanalyses) and, to build linkages with humanities researchers working on issues in environmental and climatic history in the region. Thus, this article also highlights the inherent value of multi/cross/inter-disciplinary projects in providing better syntheses and understanding of human and environmental/climatic variability and change.

Inferring biogeochemistry past: a millennial-scale multimodel assimilation of multiple paleoecological proxies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Dawson, A.; Heilman, K.; Hooten, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Paciorek, C. J.; Pederson, N.; Rollinson, C.; Tipton, J.

2017-12-01

The pre-industrial period serves as an essential baseline against which we judge anthropogenic impacts on the earth's systems. However, direct measurements of key biogeochemical processes, such as carbon, water, and nutrient cycling, are absent for this period and there is no direct way to link paleoecological proxies, such as pollen and tree rings, to these processes. Process-based terrestrial ecosystem models provide a way to make inferences about the past, but have large uncertainties and by themselves often fail to capture much of the observed variability. Here we investigate the ability to improve inferences about pre-industrial biogeochemical cycles through the formal assimilation of proxy data into multiple process-based models. A Tobit ensemble filter with explicit estimation of process error was run at five sites across the eastern US for three models (LINKAGES, ED2, LPJ-GUESS). In addition to process error, the ensemble accounted for parameter uncertainty, estimated through the assimilation of the TRY and BETY trait databases, and driver uncertainty, accommodated by probabilistically downscaling and debiasing CMIP5 GCM output then filtering based on paleoclimate reconstructions. The assimilation was informed by four PalEON data products, each of which includes an explicit Bayesian error estimate: (1) STEPPS forest composition estimated from fossil pollen; (2) REFAB aboveground biomass (AGB) estimated from fossil pollen; (3) tree ring AGB and woody net primary productivity (wNPP); and (4) public land survey composition, stem density, and AGB. By comparing ensemble runs with and without data assimilation we are able to assess the information contribution of the proxy data to constraining biogeochemical fluxes, which is driven by the combination of model uncertainty, data uncertainty, and the strength of correlation between observed and unobserved quantities in the model ensemble. To our knowledge this is the first attempt at multi-model data assimilation with terrestrial ecosystem models. Results from the data-model assimilation allow us to assess the consistency across models in post-assimilation inferences about indirectly inferred quantities, such as GPP, soil carbon, and the water budget.

Environmental controls for the precipitation of different fibrous calcite cement fabrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritter, Ann-Christine; Wiethoff, Felix; Neuser, Rolf D.; Richter, Detlev K.; Immenhauser, Adrian

2016-04-01

Abiogenic calcite cements are widely used as climate archives. They can yield information on environmental change and climate dynamics at the time when the sediment was lithified in a (marine) diagenetic environment. Radiaxial-fibrous (RFC) and fascicular-optic fibrous (FOFC) calcite cements are two very common and similar pore-filling cement fabrics in Palaeozoic and Mesozoic carbonate rocks (Richter et al., 2011) and in Holocene Mg-calcitic speleothems (Richter et al., 2015). Both fabrics are characterised by distinct crystallographic properties. Current research has shown that these fabrics are often underexplored and that a careful combination of conservative and innovative proxies allows for a better applicability of these carbonate archives to paleoenvironmental reconstructions (Ritter et al., 2015). A main uncertainty in this context is that it is still poorly understood which parameters lead to the formation of either RFC or FOFC and if differential crystallographic parameters affect proxy data from these fabrics. This study aims at a better understanding of the environmental factors that may control either RFC or FOFC precipitation. Therefore, suitable samples (a stalagmite and a Triassic marine cement succession), each with clearly differentiable layers of RFC and FOFC, were identified and analysed in high detail using a multi-proxy approach. Detailed thin section and cathodoluminescence analysis of the samples allowed for a precise identification of layers consisting solely of either RFC or FOFC. Isotopic (δ13C, δ18O) as well as trace elemental compositions have been determined and the comparison of data obtained from these different carbonate archives sheds light on changes in environmental parameters during RFC or FOFC precipitation. References: Richter, D.K., et al., 2011. Radiaxial-fibrous calcites: A new look at an old problem. Sedimentary Geology, 239, 26-36 Richter, D.K., et al., 2015. Radiaxial-fibrous and fascicular-optic Mg-calcitic cave cements: a characterization usig electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD). International Journal of Speleology, 44, 91-98 Ritter, A.-C., et al., 2015. Application of redox sensitive proxies and carbonate clumped isotopes to Mesozoic and Palaeozoic radiaxial fibrous calcite cements. Chemical Geology, 417, 306-321

Patient-rated versus proxy-rated cognitive and functional measures in older adults

PubMed Central

Howland, Molly; Allan, Kevin C; Carlton, Caitlin E; Tatsuoka, Curtis; Smyth, Kathleen A; Sajatovic, Martha

2017-01-01

Objectives Patients with cognitive impairment may have difficulty reporting their functional and cognitive abilities, which are important clinical outcomes. Health care proxies may be able to corroborate patient self-reports. Several studies reported discrepancy between patient and proxy ratings, though the literature is sparse on changes over time of these ratings. Our goals in this 12-month study were to compare patient and proxy reports on functioning, cognition, and everyday executive function, and to further elucidate correlates of patient–proxy discrepancy. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of individuals older than 70 years who ranged from having no cognitive impairment to having moderate dementia who had a proxy available to complete instruments at baseline (N=76). Measurements included Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study–Activities of Daily Living Inventory (ADCS-ADLI), Neuro-QOL Executive Function, PROMIS Applied Cognition (PROMIS-Cog), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and Geriatric Depression Scale. Results Patient- and proxy-rated ADCS-ADLI were correlated at baseline and at 1-year follow-up. Patient and proxy ratings were discrepant on Neuro-QOL Executive Function and PROMIS-Cog. Greater patient–proxy discrepancy on PROMIS-Cog was associated with younger age and less depression, and greater patient–proxy discrepancy on Neuro-QOL Executive Function was associated with less depression and worse cognitive impairment. Patient–proxy discrepancy increased over time for everyday executive function. Changes in proxy-rated but not patient-rated ADCS-ADLI correlated with MMSE changes. Conclusion Patients and proxies generally agree in reporting on activities of daily living. Patient and proxy reports differ in their respective evaluation of cognitive functioning and everyday executive function. Ratings from both sources may be preferred for these two domains, though studies using gold standard measures are necessary. It is important that clinicians are aware of the differences between patient and proxy perspective to create an accurate clinical picture and guide treatment. PMID:28352208

Fidelity of the Sr/Ca proxy in recording ocean temperature in the western Atlantic coral Siderastrea siderea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Roberts, Kelsey E.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Morrison, Jennifer M.; Richey, Julie

2017-01-01

Massive corals provide a useful archive of environmental variability, but careful testing of geochemical proxies in corals is necessary to validate the relationship between each proxy and environmental parameter throughout the full range of conditions experienced by the recording organisms. Here we use samples from a coral-growth study to test the hypothesis that Sr/Ca in the coral Siderastrea siderea accurately records sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropics (Florida, USA) along 350 km of reef tract. We test calcification rate, measured via buoyant weight, and linear extension (LE) rate, estimated with Alizarin Red-S staining, as predictors of variance in the Sr/Ca records of 39 individual S. siderea corals grown at four outer-reef locations next to in-situ temperature loggers during two, year-long periods. We found that corals with calcification rates < 1.7 mg cm−2 d−1 or < 1.7 mm yr−1 LE returned spuriously high Sr/Ca values, leading to a cold-bias in Sr/Ca-based SST estimates. The threshold-type response curves suggest that extension rate can be used as a quality-control indicator during sample and drill-path selection when using long cores for SST paleoreconstruction. For our corals that passed this quality control step, the Sr/Ca-SST proxy performed well in estimating mean annual temperature across three sites spanning 350 km of the Florida reef tract. However, there was some evidence that extreme temperature stress in 2010 (cold snap) and 2011 (SST above coral-bleaching threshold) may have caused the corals not to record the temperature extremes. Known stress events could be avoided during modern calibrations of paleoproxies.

Differential investment in body girths by sex: Evidence from 3D photonic scanning in a Thai cohort.

PubMed

Shirley, Meghan K; Cole, Tim J; Charoensiriwath, Supiya; Treleaven, Philip; Wells, Jonathan C K

2017-08-01

Life history trade-offs may manifest between competing organs and tissues in the body. Sexual dimorphism in tissue investment is well-established in humans, with sex-associated body shape differences linked to natural and sexual selection. This study uses three-dimensional (3D) photonic scanning to test whether males and females differentially invest energy in various body regions in relation to two independent proxies of growth. Body shape data (multiple girths) came from a Thai cohort (n = 11,610; 53% female; age range 21-88 years). Weight was considered a proxy for recent energy acquisition. Stature represented completed growth, a proxy for energy acquisition earlier in life. The data were analyzed using growth-proxy by sex interaction log-log regression models adjusting for age, salary and number of children. For a given percentage increase in weight, females showed greater percentage increases than males in girths of the arm, chest, hip, thigh, knee and calf (p < 0.001), whilst males exceeded females in head and waist girths (also p < 0.001). For a given percentage increase in height, weight and all girths showed greater proportional changes in males than females (p < 0.001). These results indicate sex-specific life history strategies wherein the direction and timing of energy investment in girths varies between the sexes. The results add to literature suggesting that sexual dimorphism in body morphology is not a fixed trait; rather, differential energy allocation to specific body regions appears to be a plastic strategy adjusted in relation to energy acquisition across the life course. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Testing the fidelity of the Sr/Ca proxy in recording ocean temperature in a western Atlantic coral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuffner, I. B.; Roberts, K.; Flannery, J. A.; Richey, J. N.; Morrison, J. M.

2017-12-01

Massive corals provide a useful archive of environmental variability, but careful testing of geochemical proxies in corals is necessary to validate the relationship between each proxy and environmental parameter throughout the full range of conditions experienced by the recording organisms. Here we use samples from a field-based coral-growth study to test the hypothesis that Sr/Ca in the coral Siderastrea siderea accurately records sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropics (Florida, USA) along 350 km of reef tract. We test calcification rate, measured via buoyant weight, and linear extension (LE) rate, estimated with Alizarin Red-S staining, as predictors of variance in the Sr/Ca records of 39 individual S. siderea corals grown at four outer-reef locations next to in-situ temperature loggers during two, year-long periods. We found that corals with calcification rates less than 1.7 mg cm-2 d-1 or LE rates less than 1.7 mm yr-1 returned spuriously high Sr/Ca values, leading to a cold bias in Sr/Ca-based SST estimates. The threshold-type response curves suggest that LE rate can be used as a quality-control indicator during sample and microdrill-path selection when using long cores for SST paleoreconstruction. For our corals that passed this quality control step, the Sr/Ca-SST proxy performed well in estimating mean annual SST across three sites spanning 350 km of the Florida reef tract. However, there was some evidence that extreme temperature stress in 2010 (cold snap) and 2011 (SST above coral-bleaching threshold) may have caused the corals not to record the temperature extremes. Known stress events could be avoided during modern calibrations of paleoproxies.

Evolution of the Li-Yu Lake at Eastern Taiwan: Evidences from Magnetic Proxies and Pollen Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Wang, L.; Chen, S.

2008-12-01

The Li-Yu Lake located at Hua-Lien County of eastern Taiwan seems to be originally a river and was trapped by a landslide to form a lake after. To investigate the truth, a lacustrine sediment core of about 8 meters was raised from the lake and magnetic proxies and pollen analysis were employed to analyze it. Based on the C- 14 dating, this core provides the information for the last 7000 years Magnetic proxies point out that the records could be clearly distinguished into two parts from the depth of about 2.6 meters : the deeper part dominates very coarse grained with higher oxidized magnetic minerals and vice versa at the shallower part. This boundary corresponds an ages of about 2300 yrB.P. Pollen analysis reveals that no pollen could be found at the depths below 2.8 meters; only aquatic plant pollens, such as Poaceae, Cyperaceae and Mynophyllum, were found at the depth between 2.8-2.5 meters; tree and shrub pollens began to appear at about 2.5 m in depth. These results proposed that sediments below 2.8 m (before 2400 yrBP) might be a river deposit; the river was blocked at its northern end to form a lake between 2300-2400 yrBP in consideration of the topography, and regular lake deposits occurred after 2300 yrBP. Furthermore, magnetic proxies were found to have a clear change during the age interval of about 900-600 yrBP. Pollen patterns also support this point. It is proposed that the river piracy might have happened at the southern area of the lake at this time. The literatures recording the human activity in this area seem to support this point of view.

Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from Lake Iznik (W Turkey) and Üçaǧizli Cave (S Turkey) - implications for human dispersal in the Upper Palaeolithic along coastal Anatolia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viehberg, Finn A.; Assanov, Sergey; Kuhn, Steven; Reed, Jane; Ülgen, Umut B.; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Melles, Martin

2013-04-01

Transcontinental dispersal of modern humans from the Near East to the Balkans in the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic is expected to have followed the coastline (i.e., Yarımburgaz, Karain and Üçaǧızlı caves). Lake Iznik is situated 80 km south of the Bosphorus (Western Turkey) close to the Marmara Sea. Here we retrieved a continuous sediment record covering the past ~40 ka cal BP. A multiproxy approach enabled us to reconstruct the environmental history. We included biological proxies i.e., diatoms, cladocerans and ostracods as biological proxies, but also physical and geochemical proxies were analysed. Geomorphological findings in the lake basin and geochemical analyses hint to changing lake water levels at least since 40 ka cal BP that lasted until c. 11 cal. kyr BP. This supports the theory of persisting dry climate conditions before the onset of the Holocene also inferred from geochemical sediment proxies (i.e., element analysis), diatoms and ostracod shell chemistry. The Upper Palaeolithic sequences (45-33 ka cal BP) at the Üçaǧızlı Cave (Hatay) yield clear evidence of the technological transition between Initial Upper Palaeolithic and Ahmarian, but also documents major shifts in diet of past hunting community. The identified animal remains in the cave sequence change from larger ungulates to smaller ungulates and increase in fish and shellfish. It is proposed that the compositional change in game is not solitarily caused by technology advances, but also by environmental and climatic changes as inferred from sediment archives of Lake Iznik.

Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2018-02-01

Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale in sickle cell disease: feasibility, reliability, and validity.

PubMed

Panepinto, Julie A; Torres, Sylvia; Bendo, Cristiane B; McCavit, Timothy L; Dinu, Bogdan; Sherman-Bien, Sandra; Bemrich-Stolz, Christy; Varni, James W

2014-01-01

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited blood disorder characterized by a chronic hemolytic anemia that can contribute to fatigue and global cognitive impairment in patients. The study objective was to report on the feasibility, reliability, and validity of the PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale in SCD for pediatric patient self-report ages 5-18 years and parent proxy-report for ages 2-18 years. This was a cross-sectional multi-site study whereby 240 pediatric patients with SCD and 303 parents completed the 18-item PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale. Participants also completed the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales. The PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale evidenced excellent feasibility, excellent reliability for the Total Scale Scores (patient self-report α = 0.90; parent proxy-report α = 0.95), and acceptable reliability for the three individual scales (patient self-report α = 0.77-0.84; parent proxy-report α = 0.90-0.97). Intercorrelations of the PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale with the PedsQL™ Generic Core Scales were predominantly in the large (≥0.50) range, supporting construct validity. PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale Scores were significantly worse with large effects sizes (≥0.80) for patients with SCD than for a comparison sample of healthy children, supporting known-groups discriminant validity. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated an acceptable to excellent model fit in SCD. The PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale demonstrated acceptable to excellent measurement properties in SCD. The results demonstrate the relative severity of fatigue symptoms in pediatric patients with SCD, indicating the potential clinical utility of multidimensional assessment of fatigue in patients with SCD in clinical research and practice. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale in Sickle Cell Disease: Feasibility, Reliability and Validity

PubMed Central

Panepinto, Julie A.; Torres, Sylvia; Bendo, Cristiane B.; McCavit, Timothy L.; Dinu, Bogdan; Sherman-Bien, Sandra; Bemrich-Stolz, Christy; Varni, James W.

2013-01-01

Background Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited blood disorder characterized by a chronic hemolytic anemia that can contribute to fatigue and global cognitive impairment in patients. The study objective was to report on the feasibility, reliability, and validity of the PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale in SCD for pediatric patient self-report ages 5–18 years and parent proxy-report for ages 2–18 years. Procedure This was a cross-sectional multi-site study whereby 240 pediatric patients with SCD and 303 parents completed the 18-item PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale. Participants also completed the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales. Results The PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale evidenced excellent feasibility, excellent reliability for the Total Scale Scores (patient self-report α = 0.90; parent proxy-report α = 0.95), and acceptable reliability for the three individual scales (patient self-report α = 0.77–0.84; parent proxy-report α = 0.90–0.97). Intercorrelations of the PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale with the PedsQL™ Generic Core Scales were predominantly in the large (≥ 0.50) range, supporting construct validity. PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale Scores were significantly worse with large effects sizes (≥0.80) for patients with SCD than for a comparison sample of healthy children, supporting known-groups discriminant validity. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated an acceptable to excellent model fit in SCD. Conclusions The PedsQL™ Multidimensional Fatigue Scale demonstrated acceptable to excellent measurement properties in SCD. The results demonstrate the relative severity of fatigue symptoms in pediatric patients with SCD, indicating the potential clinical utility of multidimensional assessment of fatigue in patients with SCD in clinical research and practice. PMID:24038960

Multi-proxy experimental calibration in cold water corals for high resolution paleoreconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelejero, C.; Martínez-Dios, A.; Ko, S.; Sherrell, R. M.; Kozdon, R.; López-Sanz, À.; Calvo, E.

2017-12-01

Cold-water corals (CWCs) display an almost cosmopolitan distribution over a wide range of depths. Similar to their tropical counterparts, they can provide continuous, high-resolution records of up to a century or more. Several CWC elemental and isotopic ratios have been suggested as useful proxies, but robust calibrations under controlled conditions in aquaria are needed. Whereas a few such calibrations have been performed for tropical corals, they are still pending for CWCs. This reflects the technical challenges involved in maintaining these slow-growing animals alive during the long-term experiments required to achieve sufficient skeletal growth for geochemical analyses. We will show details of the set up and initial stages of a long-term experiment being run at the ICM (Barcelona), where live specimens (>150) of Desmophyllum dianthus sampled in Comau Fjord (Chile) are kept under controlled and manipulated physical chemistry (temperature, pH, phosphate, barium, cadmium) and feeding conditions. With this set up, we aim to calibrate experimentally several specific elemental ratios including P/Ca, Ba/Ca, Cd/Ca, B/Ca, U/Ca and Mg/Li as proxies of nutrients dynamics, pH, carbonate ion concentration and temperature. For the trace element analysis, we are analyzing coral skeletons using Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS), running quantitative analyses on spot sizes of tens of microns, and comparing to micromilling and solution ICP-MS. Preliminary data obtained using these techniques will be presented, as well as measurements of calcification rate. Since coral-water corals are potentially vulnerable to ocean acidification, the same experiment is being exploited to assess potential effects of the pH stressor in D. dianthus; main findings to date will be summarized.

Sedimentary Geochemical and Palynological Evidence of Late-Holocene Paleoenvironmental Change from Baradères Bay, Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrington, E. J.; Lane, C.; Hawkes, A.; Donnelly, J. P.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Woodruff, J. D.; Maio, C. V.; Grochocki, K. K.; Taylor, A. K.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate studies in equatorial regions are essential to decipher the forcing mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation dynamics. Caribbean paleoclimate records are particularly sensitive to changes in tropical convection, as they reside on the edge of the annual migrational range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and record perturbations to many Pacific and Atlantic climate forcings. Significant sub-regional variability exists in the modern Caribbean climate and responsible forcing mechanisms on centennial to millennial timescales are largely unresolved, as reliable paleohydrological records are geographically sparse. In this study we aim to determine regional paleoenvironmental change with a specific interest in an abrupt dry period between 3200 and 2400 14C yr BP inferred from an oxygen isotope record from the nearby Lake Miragoâne, Haiti. Chronologically synchronous results from a Barbados stalagmite indicate wet conditions, which imply contrasting sub-regional hydrological responses between the northern and southern Caribbean basin. The development of multiple proximal paleoenvironmental records allows for better assessment of sub-regional Caribbean climate dynamics and the verification of existing proxy trends. We are conducting multi-proxy analyses on a 6360 14C yr, 9-meter sediment core extracted from Baradères Bay, Haiti, including loss on ignition (LOI), bulk sediment carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope geochemistry, n-alkane hydrogen (δD) isotope geochemistry, x-ray fluorescence (XRF), and fossil pollen counts. Preliminary LOI data reveal that between 6400 and 3000 14C yr B.P. inorganic carbon ranged from 15 to 30% and organic carbon from 8 to 20%. From 3000 14C yr B.P. to present organic content decreased (9 - 13%) and inorganic carbon content increased (28 - 30%). Preliminary pollen analyses show a decrease in Rhizophora (red mangrove) pollen abundances between 3000 and 4000 14C yr BP, possibly indicating a change in estuary salinity. Additionally, XRF data show low concentrations of titanium and zircon between 5600 and 6200 14C yr BP, which may indicate a reduction in terrestrial material input. Forthcoming δD analyses of terrestrially-derived n-alkanes should help to elucidate potential paleohydrologic mechanisms responsible for the apparent changes.

Development of a calibration for the B isotope paleo-pH proxy in the deep sea coral Desmophyllum dianthus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anagnostou, E.; Huang, K.; You, C.; Sherrell, R. M.

2011-12-01

The boron isotope ratio (δ11B) of foraminifera and coral carbonate has been proposed to record seawater pH. Here we test this pH proxy in the deep sea coral Desmophyllum dianthus (D. dianthus ). This coral species is cosmopolitan in geographic distribution and tolerates a wide temperature and depth range. Previous studies have shown that fossil D. dianthus skeletons can be dated precisely with U/Th measurements. Additionally, skeletal mass is sufficient for multiple elemental, isotopic, and radiocarbon measurements per sample making it a powerful candidate for paleoceanographic reconstructions. Ten modern corals from a depth range of 274-1470m in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans were analyzed using the sublimation method and multi-collector ICP-MS (Neptune), and the measured δ11B was regressed against ambient pH taken from hydrographic data sets (range pH 7.6 to 8.1). Replicate skeletal subsamples from a single coral agree within 0.35% (2SD). The array of δ11B values for these corals plots above the seawater borate δ11B vs. pH curve (Klochko et al., 2006) by an apparently constant value of 11.7 ± 1.2%, well above the range of values seen in foraminifera and surface corals. This offset is attributed to either partial incorporation of boric acid from seawater or, more likely, to physiological manipulation of the calcifying fluid to pH 8.7-9.0. The uncertainty in calculation of seawater pH from δ11B, dominated by the uncertainty in the offset value, currently limits the precision of absolute pH reconstructions to ±0.09pH units. However, the empirical calibration could be used to examine relative pH changes, thereby overcoming contributions to the uncertainty in the offset that result from the calculation of the empirical fractionation factor α and from sampling bias and variable vital effects among individuals, reducing the reconstruction error envelope. This study provides the first evidence that δ11B in D. dianthus has the potential to record ambient seawater pH.

Late Quaternary Paleoclimatic History of Tropical South America From Drilling Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Seltzer, G. O.; Rigsby, C. A.; Lowenstein, T. K.; Ku, R.

2003-12-01

Seven drill cores were recovered from Lake Titicaca during the NSF/ICDP/DOSECC drilling expedition of 2001. Sub-lake floor drilling depths ranged from 53 to 139 m; water depths ranged from 40 to 232 m; recoveries ranged from 75 to 112 percent. Our most detailed multi-proxy analyses to date have been done on Core 2B raised from the central basin of the lake from 232 m water depth, drilled to 139.26 m sub-lakefloor with 140.61 m of total sediment recovered (101 percent). A basal age of 200 Ka is estimated by linear extrapolation from radiocarbon measurements in the upper 25 m of core; Ar-Ar dating of interbedded ashes and U/Th dating of abiogenic aragonites are underway. The volume and lake level of Lake Titicaca have undergone large changes several times during the late Quaternary. Proxies for these water level changes (each of different fidelity) include the ratio of planktonic-to-benthic diatoms, sedimentary carbonate content, and stable isotopic content of organic carbon. The most recent of these changes, has been described previously from earlier piston cores. In the early and middle Holocene the lake fell below its outlet to 85 m below modern level, lake salinity increased several-fold, and the Salar de Uyuni, which receives overflow from Titicaca, dessicated. In contrast, Lake Titicaca was deep, fresh, and overflowing (southward to the Salar de Uyuni) throughout the last glacial maximum from prior to 25,000 BP to at least 15,000 BP. According to extrapolated ages, the penultimate major lowstand of Lake Titicaca occurred prior to 60,000 BP, when seismic evidence indicates that lake level was about 200 m lower than present. Near the end of this lowstand, the lake also became quite saline. There are at least three, and possibly more, older lowstands, each separated temporally by periods in which the lake freshened dramatically and overflowed. These results will be compared with results from previous drilling in the Salar de Uyuni.

The Association of Proxy Care Engagement with Proxy Reports of Patient Experience and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Roydhouse, Jessica K; Gutman, Roee; Keating, Nancy L; Mor, Vincent; Wilson, Ira B

2018-05-27

To assess the association of proxy-specific covariates with proxy-reported patient cancer care experience, quality rating, and quality of life. Secondary analysis of data from the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study. Cross-sectional observational study. The respondents were proxies for patients with incident colorectal or lung cancer. Analyses used linear regression models and adjusted for patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Outcomes included patients' experiences with medical care, nursing care, and care coordination, overall quality ratings, and physical and mental health, all scored on 0-100 scales (0 = worst, 100 = best). Independent variables included the proxy's relationship with the patient and engagement in patient care. Of 1,011 proxies, most were the patient's spouse (50 percent) or child (36 percent). Although most proxies (66 percent) always attended medical visits, 3 percent reported never attending. After adjustment, on average children reported worse experiences and poorer quality care than spouses (4-9 points lower across outcomes). Proxies who never attended medical visits reported significantly worse medical care (-11 points, 95 percent CI = -18 to -3) and care coordination (-13 points, 95 percent CI = -20 to -6). Collecting data on proxy engagement in care is warranted if proxy responses are used. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Historical Earthquakes And Their Geologic Signature On The Guerrero, Mexican Pacific Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez Herrera, M.; Rangel, V.; Kostoglodov, V.; Ruíz-Fernández, A.; Machain, M.; Caballero, M.; Goguitchaichrili, A.

2012-12-01

Historical, ethnographic and instrumental data show that the Pacific coast of Mexico has been exposed to destructive tsunamis over at least the past 500 years. This coast parallels the active Mexican subduction zone, where earthquakes M > 8 have been registered and are known to have triggered tsunamis. The purpose of our study was two-fold, a) to determine whether we could distinguish the geologic signature of historical earthquakes, and b) whether tsunami deposits are preserved in the tropical environments of the Barra de Potosí Bay, Guerrero coast. Multiple sites were dug and cores recovered to determine the presence, continuity and extension of a sharp basal contact between a clayish silt unit and a sand unit. The trench, pit, and monolith at Barra de Potosí yield a similar stratigraphy. Several lines of evidence using a multi-proxy approach (historical studies, interviews with local witnesses, geomorphological and geological surveys, coring and trenching, and laboratory analyses including grain size, micropaleontology, geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility and radiometric dating - Pb-210 and C-14) indicate the occurrence of two earthquakes that we link to local events: the 1985 (M 8.1) Mexico and possibly the 1907 (M 8.3) earthquake. No conclusive evidence of tsunami deposits were recognized, however an anomalous sand layer with incorporated mud clasts, shallow marine foraminifera, and the presence of organic debris in this sand bed suggests a mixture of terrestrial influence associated with the inland transport of high-energy marine material most likely from a nearshore beach environment. The radiocarbon dates provide a minimum age i.e. the maximum estimate for the period of burial of the plant material in the lower observed sand layer of ca. 2320-2050 cal yr BP (Cal BC 370 to 100). We thereby provide onshore geological evidence of historical coseismic deformation and possibly a tsunami on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Response of alpine vegetation growth dynamics to snow cover phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Wu, C.

2017-12-01

Alpine vegetation plays a crucial role in global energy cycles with snow cover, an essential component of alpine land cover showing high sensitivity to climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a typical alpine vegetation ecosystem and is rich of snow resources. With global warming, the snow of the TP has undergone significant changes that will inevitably affect the growth of alpine vegetation, but observed evidence of such interaction is limited. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of the responses of alpine vegetation growth to snow cover variability is still not well characterized on TP region. To investigate this, we calculated three indicators, the start (SOS) and length (LOS) of growing season, and the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) as proxies of vegetation growth dynamics from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2000-2015. Snow cover duration (SCD) and melt (SCM) dates were also extracted during the same time frame from the combination of MODIS and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data. We found that the snow cover phenology had a strong control on alpine vegetation growth dynamics. Furthermore, the responses of SOS, LOS and NDVImax to snow cover phenology varied among plant functional types, eco-geographical zones, and temperature and precipitation gradients. The alpine steppes showed a much stronger negative correlation between SOS and SCD, and also a more evidently positive relationship between LOS and SCD than other types, indicating a longer SCD would lead to an earlier SOS and longer LOS. Most areas showed positive correlation between SOS and SCM, while a contrary response was also found in the warm but drier areas. Both SCD and SCM showed positive correlations with NDVImax, but the relationship became weaker with the increase of precipitation. Our findings provided strong evidences between vegetation growth and snow cover phenology, and changes in snow cover should be also considered when analyzing alpine vegetation growth dynamics in future.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.

PubMed

Sigl, M; Winstrup, M; McConnell, J R; Welten, K C; Plunkett, G; Ludlow, F; Büntgen, U; Caffee, M; Chellman, N; Dahl-Jensen, D; Fischer, H; Kipfstuhl, S; Kostick, C; Maselli, O J; Mekhaldi, F; Mulvaney, R; Muscheler, R; Pasteris, D R; Pilcher, J R; Salzer, M; Schüpbach, S; Steffensen, J P; Vinther, B M; Woodruff, T E

2015-07-30

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigl, M.; Winstrup, M.; McConnell, J. R.; Welten, K. C.; Plunkett, G.; Ludlow, F.; Büntgen, U.; Caffee, M.; Chellman, N.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Fischer, H.; Kipfstuhl, S.; Kostick, C.; Maselli, O. J.; Mekhaldi, F.; Mulvaney, R.; Muscheler, R.; Pasteris, D. R.; Pilcher, J. R.; Salzer, M.; Schüpbach, S.; Steffensen, J. P.; Vinther, B. M.; Woodruff, T. E.

2015-07-01

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Evaluation of organic geochemical and micropaleontological proxies for Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions in Tampa Bay, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Soelen, E. E.; Brooks, G.; Lammertsma, E.; Donders, T.; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Sangiorgi, F.; Cremer, H.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Reichart, G. J.

2009-04-01

The exact consequences of human induced climate change are as yet not known. One of the current debates concerns the relation between rising sea surface temperatures (SST) and enhanced hurricane activity. It has also been suggested that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability plays a major role in providing favorable circumstances for hurricane development. Paleo-climate reconstructions can help understanding long-term trends in hurricane activity. However, reliable climate reconstructions first require that suitable proxies are developed and tested. For this purpose, a pilot-study was performed using biomarkers, pollen, dinoflagellates and diatoms in a core from Tampa-Bay, Florida, covering the Holocene. The hydrological cycle in this part of Florida is strongly affected by both ENSO [1] and hurricanes. Biomarkers of both terrestrial and marine origin were abundant in the core sediments. High taraxerol concentrations were found which are characteristic for the close proximity of mangrove forests on the bays fringes. Other vascular plant derived biomarkers include friedelanone and β-sitosterol. Marine biomarkers include amongst others dinosterol and long-chain C37 and C38 alkenones, indicative for dinoflagellates and haptophyte algae respectively. These biomarkers are absent in sediments older than 7 kyr BP, indicating a non-marine depositional environment. In sediments younger than 7 kyr BP, increasing amounts of marine biomarkers indicate a transition towards estuarine conditions. SST was reconstructed on the alkenones-based paleothermometer Uk'37 and indicates temperatures of ~ 26°C for the past ~4 kyr. Between 7 and 4 kyr BP, concentrations of alkenones in the sediments are too low for reliable SST reconstructions. The shift towards estuarine conditions is a consequence of rising sea-levels following the last deglaciation and is in agreement with earlier findings by Cronin et al. [2], who recognized a change from lacustrine to marine sediments around 7 kyr BP in the same sediment core. Dinoflagellates and diatoms indicate increasing marine conditions from 7 kyr BP onwards, implying that sea level continued rising. Also the pollen-record shows a shift around 7 kyr BP, with a decrease in Cypress swamp vegetation and a slight increase in mangrove pollen, indicative of transgression. Organic geochemical and micropaleontological proxies are in agreement with each other and confirm earlier findings for Holocene Tampa Bay development. The excellent preservation of both terrestrial and marine biomarkers makes them a useful proxy for the reconstruction of SST, precipitation and runoff and eventually hurricanes, especially when read a multi-proxy approach.

NASA SPoRT GOES-R Proving Ground Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Jedloec, Gary J.

2010-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) helping prepare forecasters understand the unique products to come from the GOES-R instrument suite. SPoRT is working collaboratively with other members of the GOES-R PG team and Algorithm Working Group (AWG) scientists to develop and disseminate a suite of proxy products that address specific forecast problems for the WFOs, Regional and National Support Centers, and other NOAA users. These products draw on SPoRT s expertise with the transition and evaluation of products into operations from the MODIS instrument and the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The MODIS instrument serves as an excellent proxy for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) that will be aboard GOES-R. SPoRT has transitioned and evaluated several multi-channel MODIS products. The true and false color products are being used in natural hazard detection by several SPoRT partners to provide better observation of land features, such as fires, smoke plumes, and snow cover. Additionally, many of SPoRT s partners are coastal offices and already benefit from the MODIS sea surface temperature composite. This, along with other surface feature observations will be developed into ABI proxy products for diagnostic use in the forecast process as well as assimilation into forecast models. In addition to the MODIS instrument, the NALMA has proven very valuable to WFOs with access to these total lightning data. These data provide situational awareness and enhanced warning decision making to improve lead times for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. One effort by SPoRT scientists includes a lightning threat product to create short-term model forecasts of lightning activity. Additionally, SPoRT is working with the AWG to create GLM proxy data from several of the ground based total lightning networks, such as the NALMA. The evaluation will focus on the vastly improved spatial coverage of the GLM, but with the trade-off of lower resolution compared to the NALMA. In addition to the above tasks, SPoRT will make these data available in the NWS next generation display software, AWIPS II. This has already been successfully completed for the two basic GLM proxies. SPoRT will use these products to train forecasters on the capabilities of GOES-R and foster feedback to develop additional products, visualizations, and requirements beneficial to end users needs. These developments and feedback will be made available to the GOES-R Proving Ground for the upcoming 2010 Spring Program in Norman, Oklahoma.

Goal specificity: a proxy measure for improvements in environmental outcomes in collaborative governance.

PubMed

Biddle, Jennifer C; Koontz, Tomas M

2014-12-01

Collaborative governance critics continually call for evidence to support its prevalent use. As is often the case in environmental policy, environmental outcomes occur at a rate incompatible with political agendas. In addition, a multitude of possibly confounding variables makes it difficult to correlate collaborative governance processes with environmental outcomes. The findings of this study offer empirical evidence that collaborative processes have a measurable, beneficial effect on environmental outcomes. Through the use of a unique paired-waterbody design, our dataset reduced the potential for confounding variables to impact our environmental outcome measurements. The results of a path analysis indicate that the output of setting specific pollutant reduction goals is significantly related to watershed partnerships' level of attainment of their environmental improvement goals. The action of setting specific goals (e.g. percentage of load reductions in pollutant levels) is fostered by sustained participation from partnership members throughout the lifecycle of the collaborative. In addition, this study demonstrates the utility of logic modeling for environmental planning and management, and suggests that the process of setting specific pollutant reduction goals is a useful proxy measure for reporting progress towards improvements in environmental outcomes when long-term environmental data are not available. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

δ15N Values in Crassostrea virginica Shells Provides Early Direct Evidence for Nitrogen Loading to Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, H. D.; Andrus, C. F. T.; Lambert, W. J.; Rick, T. C.; Gillikin, D. P.

2017-03-01

Crassostrea virginica is one of the most common estuarine bivalves in the United States’ east coast and is frequently found in archaeological sites and sub-fossil deposits. Although there have been several sclerochronological studies on stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in the shells of this species, less is known about δ15N values within their shells, which could be a useful paleoenvironmental proxy to assess estuarine nitrogen dynamics. Modern C. virginica samples were collected in Chesapeake Bay for comparison with archaeological shells from nearby sites ranging in age from ~100 to 3,200 years old. Left valves were sampled by milling the hinge area and the resulting powder was analyzed for %N and δ15N values. Comparison of δ15N values between C. virginica shells shows relatively constant values from ~1250 BC to ~1800 AD. After ~1800 AD, there are rapid increases in 15N enrichment in the shells, which continue to increase in value up to the modern shell values. The increase in δ15N values is evidence of early anthropogenic impact in Chesapeake Bay. These results corroborate the observation that coastal nitrogen pollution occurred earlier than the 19th century and support the use of oyster shell δ15N values as a useful environmental proxy.

Eutrophication History of Small Shallow Lakes in Estonia: Evidence from Multiproxy Analysis of Lake Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koff, T.; Marzecova, A.; Vandel, E.; Mikomägi, A.; Avi, E.

2015-12-01

Human activities have impacted aquatic systems through the release of contaminants and the regulation of surface and groundwater. Although environmental monitoring has been essential in detecting eutrophication, biodiversity loss or water quality deterioration, monitoring activities are limited in time and are thus not sufficient in their scope to identify causality and thresholds. Paleolimnological studies increasingly show that the response of lakes to climatic and human influences is complex, multidimensional, and often indirectly mediated through watershed processes. In this study we examine the history of eutrophication processes in small lakes in Estonia using the multi-proxy analysis of sediment. Study sites represent lakes with different anthropogenic stressors: urbanisation and recreational use, run-off from an oil shale mine, and fish-kills and liming measures. We have used diverse analytical methods, such as elemental analysis, stable isotopes, fossil pigments, diatoms and Cladocera remains. The information derived from sedimentary indicators broadly agrees with the historical evidence of eutrophication and pollution. Moreover, the sediment records are indispensable for identifying additional issues such as: 1) earlier onset of cultural eutrophication; 2) the significant impact of catchment erosion on the deterioration of lake quality, particularly cyanobacterial blooms; and 3) changes in sedimentation processes with significance for internal biogeochemical cycling of nutrients. Importantly, the integration of several methods has significantly improved interpretation of sedimentary data and elucidated the different strengths of various indicator types. The project findings prove to be highly relevant for both the prediction of the ecological responses of lakes to different anthropogenic impacts and the establishment of reasonable reference target conditions in restoration schemes, as well as for methodological improvements of the sediment analysis.

Fossils from Quaternary fluvial archives: Sources of biostratigraphical, biogeographical and palaeoclimatic evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Tom S.; Bridgland, David R.; Limondin-Lozouet, Nicole; Schreve, Danielle C.

2017-06-01

Fluvial sedimentary archives have the potential to preserve a wide variety of palaeontological evidence, ranging from robust bones and teeth found in coarse gravel aggradations to delicate insect remains and plant macrofossils from fine-grained deposits. Over the last decade, advances in Quaternary biostratigraphy based on vertebrate and invertebrate fossils (primarily mammals and molluscs) have been made in many parts of the world, resulting in improved relative chronologies for fluviatile sequences. Complementary fossil groups, such as insects, ostracods and plant macrofossils, are also increasingly used in multi-proxy palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, allowing direct comparison of the climates and environments that prevailed at different times across widely separated regions. This paper reviews these topics on a regional basis, with an emphasis on the latest published information, and represents an update to the 2007 review compiled by the FLAG-inspired IGCP 449 biostratigraphy subgroup. Disparities in the level of detail available for different regions can largely be attributed to varying potential for preservation of fossil material, which is especially poor in areas of non-calcareous bedrock, but to some extent also reflect research priorities in different parts of the world. Recognition of the value of biostratigraphical and palaeoclimatic frameworks, which have been refined over many decades in the 'core regions' for such research (particularly for the late Middle and Late Pleistocene of NW Europe), has focussed attention on the need to accumulate similar palaeontological datasets in areas lacking such long research histories. Although the emerging datasets from these understudied regions currently allow only tentative conclusions to be drawn, they represent an important stage in the development of independent biostratigraphical and palaeoenvironmental schemes, which can then be compared and contrasted.

Kinetic and Potential Sputtering Enhancements of Lunar Regolith Erosion: The Contribution of the Heavy Multicharged (Minority) Solar Wind Constituents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, F. W.; Barghouty, A. F.

2012-01-01

We report preliminary results for H+, Ar+1, Ar+6 and Ar+9 ion sputtering of JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant at solar wind velocities, obtain ed at the ORNL Multicharged Ion Research Facility using quadrupole ma ss spectrometry. The multi-charged Ar ions were used as proxies for i ntermediate mass solar wind multicharged ions. Prior to the Ar beam e xposures, the sample was exposed to high fluence H+ irradiation to si mulate H-loading due to the dominant solar wind constituent. A x80 en hancement of oxygen sputtering by Ar+ over same velocity H+ was measu red and an additional x2 increase for Ar+9 over same velocity Ar+ was demonstrated, giving clear evidence of the importance of potential s puttering by multicharged ions. This enhancement was observed to pers ist to the maximum fluences investigated (approx 10(exp 16)/sq cm). As discussed in a companion abstract by N. Barghouty, such persistent s puttering enhancement has significant implications on weathering and aging of lunar regolith. In addition, XPS measurements showed strong evidence of Fe reduction for those target areas that had been exposed to high fluence Ar+ and Ar+8 beams. Preferential oxidation of the Fe -reduced beam-exposed regions during transfer to the XPS system led t o enhanced O concentrations in those regions as well. On the basis of these very promising preliminary results, a NASA-LASER project on mo re extensive measurements was recently selected for funding. The prop osal expands the collaboration with NASA-MSFC for the simulation effort, and adds a new collaboration with NASA-GSFC for lunar mission-rele vant measurements.

Middle Holocene thermal maximum in eastern Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.; Bartlein, P. J.

2015-12-01

A new systematic review of diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records (Kaufman et al., Quat. Sci. Rev., in revision) has clarified the primary multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas). Composite time series from midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies. The paleo observations are also compared with recently published simulations (Bartlein et al., Clim. Past Discuss., 2015) that used a regional climate model to simulate the effects of global and regional-scale forcings at 11 and 6 ka. During the early Holocene (11.5-8 ka), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, the newly compiled paleo evidence (mostly sensitive to summer conditions) indicates that temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present, although the overall lowest average temperatures occurred during the earliest Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8-4 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. The paleo evidence for low and variable temperatures during the early Holocene contrasts with more uniformly high temperatures during the middle Holocene and agrees with the climate simulations, which show that temperature in eastern Beringia was on average lower at 11 ka and higher at 6 ka than at present (pre-industrial). Low temperatures during the early Holocene can be attributed in part to the summer chilling caused by flooding the continental shelves, whereas the mid-Holocene thermal maximum was likely driven by the loss of the Laurentide ice sheet, rise in greenhouse gases, higher-than-present summer insolation, and expansion of forest over tundra.

12 CFR 563b.255 - What must the form of proxy include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... proxy include? The form of proxy must include all of the following: (a) A statement in bold face type... separately. (d) The phrase “Revocable Proxy” in bold face type (at least 18 point). (e) A description of any... the member received a proxy statement before he or she signed the form of proxy. (g) The date, time...

Proxy-assisted multicasting of video streams over mobile wireless networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Maggie; Pezeshkmehr, Layla; Moh, Melody

2005-03-01

This work addresses the challenge of providing seamless multimedia services to mobile users by proposing a proxy-assisted multicast architecture for delivery of video streams. We propose a hybrid system of streaming proxies, interconnected by an application-layer multicast tree, where each proxy acts as a cluster head to stream out content to its stationary and mobile users. The architecture is based on our previously proposed Enhanced-NICE protocol, which uses an application-layer multicast tree to deliver layered video streams to multiple heterogeneous receivers. We targeted the study on placements of streaming proxies to enable efficient delivery of live and on-demand video, supporting both stationary and mobile users. The simulation results are evaluated and compared with two other baseline scenarios: one with a centralized proxy system serving the entire population and one with mini-proxies each to serve its local users. The simulations are implemented using the J-SIM simulator. The results show that even though proxies in the hybrid scenario experienced a slightly longer delay, they had the lowest drop rate of video content. This finding illustrates the significance of task sharing in multiple proxies. The resulted load balancing among proxies has provided a better video quality delivered to a larger audience.

Soil carbon cycling proxies: Understanding their critical role in predicting climate change feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Vanessa L.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; DeAngelis, Kristen

The complexity of processes and interactions that drive soil C dynamics necessitate the use of proxy variables to represent soil characteristics that cannot be directly measured (correlative proxies), or that aggregate information about multiple soil characteristics into one variable (integrative proxies). These proxies have proven useful for understanding the soil C cycle, which is highly variable in both space and time, and are now being used to make predictions of the C fate and persistence under future climate scenarios. As these proxies are used at increasingly larger scales, the C pools and processes that proxies represent must be thoughtfully consideredmore » in order to minimize uncertainties in empirical understanding, as well as in model parameters and in model outcomes. The importance of these uncertainties is further amplified by the current need to make predictions of the C cycle for the non steady state environmental conditions resulting from global climate change. To clarify the appropriate uses of proxy variables, we provide specific examples of proxy variables that could improve decision making, adaptation choices, and modeling skill, while not foreclosing on – and also encouraging – continued work on their mechanistic underpinnings. We explore the use of three common soil proxies used to study soil organic matter: metabolic quotient, clay content, and physical fractionation. We also consider emerging data types, specifically genome-sequence data, and how these serve as proxies for microbial community activities. We opine that the demand for increasing mechanistic detail, and the flood of data from new imaging and genetic techniques, does not replace the value of correlative and integrative proxies--variables that are simpler, easier, or cheaper to measure. By closely examining the current knowledge gaps and broad assumptions in soil C cycling with the proxies already in use, we can develop new hypotheses and specify criteria for new and needed proxies.« less

A critical framework for the assessment of biological palaeoproxies: predicting past climate and levels of atmospheric CO(2) from fossil leaves.

PubMed

Jordan, Gregory J

2011-10-01

This review uses proxies of past temperature and atmospheric CO(2) composition based on fossil leaves to illustrate the uncertainties in biologically based proxies of past environments. Most leaf-based proxies are geographically local or genetically restricted and therefore can be confounded by evolution, extinction, changes in local environment or immigration of species. Stomatal frequency proxies illustrate how genetically restricted proxies can be particularly vulnerable to evolutionary change. High predictive power in the modern world resulting from the use of a very narrow calibration cannot be confidently extrapolated into the past (the Ginkgo paradox). Many foliar physiognomic proxies of climate are geographically local and use traits that are more or less fixed for individual species. Such proxies can therefore be confounded by floristic turnover and biome shifts in the region of calibration. Uncertainty in proxies tends to be greater for more ancient fossils. I present a set of questions that should be considered before using a proxy. Good proxies should be relatively protected from environmental and genetic change, particularly through having high information content and being founded on biomechanical or biochemical principles. Some current and potential developments are discussed, including those that involve more mechanistically sound proxies and better use of multivariate approaches. © 2011 The Author. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Comparison of Geochemical, Grain-Size, and Magnetic Proxies for Rock Flour and Ice- Rafted Debris in the Late Pleistocene Mono Basin, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, S. H.; Hemming, S. R.; Kent, D. V.

2008-12-01

Advance and retreat of mountain glaciers are important indicators of climate variability, but the most direct proxy record, mapping and dating of moraines, is by nature discontinous. The Sierra Nevada form the western boundary of the Mono Lake basin, and the proximity of the large Pleistocene lake to the glacial canyons of the Sierra presents a rare opportunity to examine glacial variability in a continuous, well-dated lacustrine sequence. We have applied a geochemical proxy for rock flour to the glacial silts of the late Pleistocene Wilson Creek Formation, but because it is time- and sample-intensive, another method is required for a high-resolution record. Previous microscopic examination, thermomagnetic measurements, XRD analysis, and new isothermal remnant magnetization (IRM) acquisition curves show that the magnetic mineralogy is dominated by fine-grained, unaltered magnetite. Bulk measurements show strong susceptibility (mean ~ 16 x 10- 6 m3/kg) and remanent magnetization (mean IRM ~ 10-2 Am2/kg) compared to diluting components (carbonate, smectite, rhyolitic ash). The Wilson Creek type section sediments also contain a coarse lithic fraction, quantified by counting the >2cm clasts in outcrop and the >425 μm fraction in the bulk sediment. Susceptibility, IRM, and ARM (anhysteretic remnant magnetization) are quite similar throughout the type section, with the abundance of coarse lithic fraction correlative to the ratio k/IRM. Because the magnetic fraction of the rock flour is fine-grained magnetite, IRM should capture the changes in concentration of flour through time, and the major features of the (low-resolution) geochemical flour proxy record are identifiable in the IRM record. Flux-correction of the IRM results in a rock flour proxy record with major peaks between 36 and 48 ka, similar to a rock flour record from neighboring Owens Lake. This regional glacial signal contrasts with peaks in coarse lithics between 58 and 68 ka in the Wilson Creek record; coupled with coeval high lake levels and a lack of geomorphic evidence of glacier-lake interaction, this is taken to indicate that the rafting was due to shore ice, rather than glacial icebergs.

The reluctance to burden others as a value in end-of-life decision making: a source of inaccuracy in substituted judgment.

PubMed

Winter, Laraine; Parks, Susan M

2012-03-01

Most patients are decisionally incapacitated at the end of life, leaving final treatment decisions to proxies, whose substituted judgment is often inaccurate. We investigated the reluctance to burden others (RBO), a commonly cited patient value, as a possible source of proxy inaccuracy. In a sample of 202 elders and their proxies, elders responded to three burden-related questions and the Life-prolonging Treatment Preferences Questionnaire. Proxies used substituted judgment to respond to the same questions. Although RBO predicted treatment preferences for both elders and proxies, elders rated RBO significantly more important than did proxies. In addition, larger elder-proxy differences in RBO were associated with more inaccurate substituted judgment.

Representation of layer-counted proxy records as probability densities on error-free time axes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

2016-04-01

Time series derived from paleoclimatic proxy records exhibit substantial dating uncertainties in addition to the measurement errors of the proxy values. For radiometrically dated proxy archives, Goswami et al. [1] have recently introduced a framework rooted in Bayesian statistics that successfully propagates the dating uncertainties from the time axis to the proxy axis. The resulting proxy record consists of a sequence of probability densities over the proxy values, conditioned on prescribed age values. One of the major benefits of this approach is that the proxy record is represented on an accurate, error-free time axis. Such unambiguous dating is crucial, for instance, in comparing different proxy records. This approach, however, is not directly applicable to proxy records with layer-counted chronologies, as for example ice cores, which are typically dated by counting quasi-annually deposited ice layers. Hence the nature of the chronological uncertainty in such records is fundamentally different from that in radiometrically dated ones. Here, we introduce a modification of the Goswami et al. [1] approach that is specifically designed for layer-counted proxy records, instead of radiometrically dated ones. We apply our method to isotope ratios and dust concentrations in the NGRIP core, using a published 60,000-year chronology [2]. It is shown that the further one goes into the past, the more the layer-counting errors accumulate and lead to growing uncertainties in the probability density sequence for the proxy values that results from the proposed approach. For the older parts of the record, these uncertainties affect more and more a statistically sound estimation of proxy values. This difficulty implies that great care has to be exercised when comparing and in particular aligning specific events among different layer-counted proxy records. On the other hand, when attempting to derive stochastic dynamical models from the proxy records, one is only interested in the relative changes, i.e. in the increments of the proxy values. In such cases, only the relative (non-cumulative) counting errors matter. For the example of the NGRIP records, we show that a precise estimation of these relative changes is in fact possible. References: [1] Goswami et al., Nonlin. Processes Geophys. (2014) [2] Svensson et al., Clim. Past (2008)

A multi-proxy palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic record within full glacial lacustrine deposits, western Tennessee, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimley, D.A.; Daniel, L.; Kaplan, S.W.; Yansa, C.H.; Curry, B. Brandon; Oches, E.A.

2009-01-01

The Fulton Section, along the Mississippi River in western Tennessee, USA, is a 1km continuous exposure (~20m vertically) of Quaternary fluvial and lacustrine deposits, inset within Eocene sediments and buried by thick loess. Fossiliferous slackwater lake sediments record maximum aggradation during the last two major glaciations, with deposition between ca. 190-140 ka and 24-1814C ka BP, based on amino acid and radiocarbon chronology, respectively. During the onset of full glacial conditions (ca. 24-22 14C ka BP), a relatively permanent shallow lake environment is indicated by ostracods, aquatic molluscs, and both pollen and macrofossils of aquatic plants. By 21.8 14C ka BP, increasing emergent plants, amphibious gastropods (Pomatiopsis) and heavier ??18O compositions suggest marsh-like conditions in a periodically drying lake. The surrounding uplands consisted of Picea-Pinus woodlands mixed with cool-temperate hardwoods (e.g. Quercus, Populus, Carya), grasses and herbs. More open conditions ensued ca. 20 14C ka BP, with loess and slopewash gradually infilling the former lake by 18 14C ka BP. Modern analogue analyses of ostracods and palaeontological evidence imply a full glacial climate similar to today's mixed-boreal zone in central Minnesota, USA, about 98C cooler in mean annual temperature than present-day western Tennessee. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A path analysis study of factors influencing hospital staff perceptions of quality of care factors associated with patient satisfaction and patient experience.

PubMed

Leggat, Sandra G; Karimi, Leila; Bartram, Timothy

2017-11-16

Hospital staff are interested in information on patient satisfaction and patient experience that can help them improve quality of care. Staff perceptions of quality of care have been identified as useful proxies when patient data are not available. This study explores the organizational factors and staff attitudes that influence staff perceptions of the quality of the care they provide in relation to patient satisfaction and patient experience. Cross sectional survey completed by 258 staff of a large multi-campus, integrated metropolitan hospital in Australia. Structured equation modelling was used to analyse the data. Our data suggest that different perceived organizational factors and staff attitudes contribute to different pathways for patient satisfaction and patient experience indicators. Hospital staff in our sample were more likely to indicate they provided the care that would result in higher patient satisfaction if they felt empowered within a psychologically safe environment. Conversely their views on patient experience were related to their commitment towards their hospital. There was no relationship between the staff perceptions of patient satisfaction and the staff response to the friends and family test. This study provides empirical evidence that staff perceptions of the quality of care they provide that is seen to be related to patient satisfaction and patient experience are enacted through different pathways that reflect differing perceptions of organizational factors and workplace psychological attitudes.

Investor sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from provincial TV audience rating in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongjie; Zhang, Yuzhao; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

2017-01-01

In this paper, we advocate the provincial TV audience rating as the novel proxy for the provincial investor sentiment (PIS) and investigate its relation with stock returns. The empirical results firstly show that the PIS is positively related to stock returns. Secondly, we provide direct evidence on the existence of home bias in China by observing that the provincial correlation coefficient is significantly larger than the cross-provincial correlation coefficient. Finally, the PIS can explain a large proportion of provincial comovement. To sum up, all these findings support the role of the non-traditional information sources in understanding the ;anomalies; in stock market.

Development of six PROMIS pediatrics proxy-report item banks

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pediatric self-report should be considered the standard for measuring patient reported outcomes (PRO) among children. However, circumstances exist when the child is too young, cognitively impaired, or too ill to complete a PRO instrument and a proxy-report is needed. This paper describes the development process including the proxy cognitive interviews and large-field-test survey methods and sample characteristics employed to produce item parameters for the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) pediatric proxy-report item banks. Methods The PROMIS pediatric self-report items were converted into proxy-report items before undergoing cognitive interviews. These items covered six domains (physical function, emotional distress, social peer relationships, fatigue, pain interference, and asthma impact). Caregivers (n = 25) of children ages of 5 and 17 years provided qualitative feedback on proxy-report items to assess any major issues with these items. From May 2008 to March 2009, the large-scale survey enrolled children ages 8-17 years to complete the self-report version and caregivers to complete the proxy-report version of the survey (n = 1548 dyads). Caregivers of children ages 5 to 7 years completed the proxy report survey (n = 432). In addition, caregivers completed other proxy instruments, PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales Parent Proxy-Report version, PedsQL™ Asthma Module Parent Proxy-Report version, and KIDSCREEN Parent-Proxy-52. Results Item content was well understood by proxies and did not require item revisions but some proxies clearly noted that determining an answer on behalf of their child was difficult for some items. Dyads and caregivers of children ages 5-17 years old were enrolled in the large-scale testing. The majority were female (85%), married (70%), Caucasian (64%) and had at least a high school education (94%). Approximately 50% had children with a chronic health condition, primarily asthma, which was diagnosed or treated within 6 months prior to the interview. The PROMIS proxy sample scored similar or better on the other proxy instruments compared to normative samples. Conclusions The initial calibration data was provided by a diverse set of caregivers of children with a variety of common chronic illnesses and racial/ethnic backgrounds. The PROMIS pediatric proxy-report item banks include physical function (mobility n = 23; upper extremity n = 29), emotional distress (anxiety n = 15; depressive symptoms n = 14; anger n = 5), social peer relationships (n = 15), fatigue (n = 34), pain interference (n = 13), and asthma impact (n = 17). PMID:22357192

Linking Concurrent Self-Reports and Retrospective Proxy Reports About the Last Year of Life: A Prevailing Picture of Life Satisfaction Decline

PubMed Central

Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam; Schupp, Jürgen; Sprangers, Mirjam A. G.; Wagner, Gert G.

2014-01-01

Objective. We examined the extent to which retrospective proxy reports of well-being mirror participant self-reports at 12–24 months before death and how proxy reports of well-being change over the last year of life. We also explored the role of sociodemographic, cognitive, and health factors of both participants and proxies in moderating such associations. Method. We used retrospective proxy ratings obtained in the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (N = 164; age at death = 19–99 years). Results. Results revealed moderate agreement between self- and proxy reports (r = .42), but proxies, on average, overestimated participants’ life satisfaction by two thirds of a scale point on a 0–10 scale (or 0.4 SD). Discrepancies were particularly pronounced when proxies themselves reported low life satisfaction. Over the last year of life, participants were viewed to have experienced declines in life satisfaction (−0.54 SD). Declines were stronger for ill participants and proxies who reported low life satisfaction. Discussion. Results qualify theoretical expectations and empirical results based on self-report data that are typically available 1 or 2 years before death. We discuss that retrospective proxy reports in panel surveys can be used as a hypothesis-generating tool to gather insights into late life. PMID:23766436

δ15N as a proxy for historic anthropogenic nitrogen loading in Charleston Harbor, SC, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, T. N.; Andrus, C. F. T.

2015-12-01

Bivalve shell geochemistry can serve as a useful indicator of changes in coastal environments. There is increasing interest in developing paleoenvironmental proxies from mollusk shell organic components. Numerous studies have focused on how the δ15N obtained from bivalve tissues can be used to trace present-day wastewater input into estuaries. However, comparatively little attention has been paid to tracing the impact of anthropogenic nitrogen loading into estuaries over time. By measuring historic levels of δ15N in the organic fraction of oyster shells (Crassostrea virginica) from archaeological sites around Charleston Harbor and comparing those levels to the δ15N content of modern shells, it is possible to assess how nitrogen has fluctuated historically in the area. Whole-shell samples from the Late Archaic Period (~3000-4000 BP, Late Woodland Period (~1400-800 BP), 18th and 19th centuries, and modern controls were measured for %N and d15N. Evidence of increased anthropogenic input of N is expected to begin in the early historic period based on similar analysis in Chesapeake Bay. More ancient samples may give insight into baseline conditions prior to recent population growth and industrialization. This information could help understand how large-scale anthropogenic nitrogen loading has affected coastal ecosystems over time and guide future remediation. Furthermore, this project will help refine and improve this novel proxy of past environmental conditions.

Learning speed is affected by personality and reproductive investment in a songbird.

PubMed

Rivera-Gutierrez, Hector Fabio; Martens, Tine; Pinxten, Rianne; Eens, Marcel

2017-01-01

Individuals from different taxa, including songbirds, differ consistently in behaviour and personality when facing different situations. Although our understanding of animal behaviour has increased, knowledge about between-individual differences in cognitive abilities is still limited. By using an experimental approach and a free-living songbird (Parus major) as a model, we attempted to understand between-individual differences in habituation to playbacks (as a proxy of learning speed), by investigating the role of personality, age and reproductive investment (clutch size). Pre-breeding males were tested for exploration (a proxy of personality) in standardized conditions. In addition, the same individuals were exposed to three playbacks in the field during incubation. Birds significantly moved less, stayed further away and overlapped less the playback with successive playback stimulation. While a decrease in the locomotor behaviour can be explained by personality, differences in habituation of overlapping were predicted by both reproductive investment and personality. Fast explorers habituated less. Moreover, males paired to females with larger clutches did not vary the intensity of overlapping. Since habituation requires information for recognition of non-threatening signals, personality may bias information gathering. While fast explorers may collect less information from the environment, slow explorers (reactive birds) seem to pay attention to environmental clues and collect detailed information. We provided evidence that the rate of habituation of behavioural responses, a proxy of cognitive abilities, may be affected by different factors and in a complex way.

Polar synchronization and the synchronized climatic history of Greenland and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jeseung; Reischmann, Elizabeth; Rial, José A.

2014-01-01

Stable isotope proxies from ice cores show subtle differences in the climatic fluctuations of the Arctic and Antarctic, and recent analyses have revealed evidence of polar synchronization at the millennial time scale. At this scale, we analogize the polar climates of the last ice ages to two coupled nonlinear oscillators, which adjust their natural rhythms until they synchronize at a common frequency and constant phase shift. Heat and mass transfers across the intervening ocean and atmosphere make the coupling possible. Here we statistically demonstrate the existence of this phenomenon in polar proxy records with methane-matched age models, and quantify their phase relationship. We show that the time series of representative proxy records of the last glaciation recorded in Greenland (GRIP, NGRIP) and Antarctica (Byrd, Dome C) satisfy phase synchronization conditions, independently of age, for periods ranging 1-6 ky, and can be transformed into one another by a π/2 phase shift, with Antarctica temperature variations leading Greenland's. Based on these results, we use the polar synchronization paradigm to replicate the 800 ky-long, Antarctic, EPICA time series from a theoretical model that extends Greenland's 100 ky-long GRIP record to 800 ky. Statistical analysis of the simulated and actual Antarctic records shows that the procedure is stable to change in adjustable parameters, and requires the coupling between the polar climates to be proportional mainly to the difference in heat storage between the two regions.

Evidence of multidecadal climate variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature-proxy record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; DeLong, K.L.; Richey, J.N.; Quinn, T.M.

2009-01-01

A comparison of a Mg/Ca-based sea-surface temperature (SST)-anomaly record from the northern Gulf of Mexico, a calculated index of variability in observed North Atlantic SST known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and a tree-ring reconstruction of the AMO contain similar patterns of variation over the last 110 years. Thus, the multidecadal variability observed in the instrumental record is present in the tree-ring and Mg/Ca proxy data. Frequency analysis of the Gulf of Mexico SST record and the tree-ring AMO reconstruction from 1550 to 1990 found similar multidecadal-scale periodicities (???30-60 years). This multidecadal periodicity is about half the observed (60-80 years) variability identified in the AMO for the 20th century. The historical records of hurricane landfalls reveal increased landfalls in the Gulf Coast region during time intervals when the AMO index is positive (warmer SST), and decreased landfalls when the AMO index is negative (cooler SST). Thus, we conclude that alternating intervals of high and low hurricane landfall occurrences may continue on multidecadal timescales along the northern Gulf Coast. However, given the short length of the instrumental record, the actual frequency and stability of the AMO are uncertain, and additional AMO proxy records are needed to establish the character of multidecadal-scale SST variability in the North Atlantic. ?? 2009 US Government.

Alimemazine poisoning as evidence of Munchausen syndrome by proxy: A pediatric case report.

PubMed

Gomila, Isabel; López-Corominas, Victoria; Pellegrini, Manuela; Quesada, Loreto; Miravet, Elena; Pichini, Simona; Barceló, Bernardino

2016-09-01

Munchausen syndrome by proxy (MSBP), also known as fabricated or induced illness in a child by a caretaker, is a form of abuse where a caregiver deliberately produces or feigns illness in a person under his or her care, so that the proxy will receive medical care that gratifies the caregiver. The affected children are often hospitalized for long periods and endure repetitive, painful and expensive diagnostic attempts. We present an analytically confirmed case of MSBP by alimemazine. A 3-year-old boy was brought repetitively to a Pediatric Emergency Department by his mother because he presented limb tremors, dysarthria, obnubilation, and ataxia and generalized tonic-clonic seizures coinciding with intermittent fever. Neither the rest of the physical examination nor the complementary tests showed any significant alterations. MSBP was suspected and a routine systematic toxicological analysis in urine and blood was requested. Alimemazine was detected in all biological samples. The administration of this drug was never mentioned by the mother and the subsequent interview with her corroborated the suspicion of MSBP. Clinically, after separation from the mother, the child's neurological symptoms gradually improved until the complete disappearance of the cerebellar symptoms. Alimemazine was quantified in serum, urine, gastric content and cerebrospinal fluid samples by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (maximum serum level was 0.42μg/ml). Hair quantification of alimemazine was performed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in different segments of hair. The results confirmed regular substance use during the at least eight last months (8.8, 14.7, 19.7 and 4.6ng/mg hair starting from most proximal segment). This patient represents the first case published with analytical data of alimemazine in blood, urine, gastric content, cerebrospinal fluid and hair, which allowed us to prove an acute and repetitive poisoning with alimemazine as evidence of MSBP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of trace element pyritization to pyrite oxidation processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Manuel; Díaz, Rut; Mendoza, Ursula; Capilla, Ramses; Böttcher, Michael; Luiza Albuquerque, Ana; Machado, Wilson

2014-05-01

Total trace elements concentration variability in marine sediments has been widely used as a proxy for redox conditions and marine paleoprodutivity. However, partial extraction procedures reduce influences of detrital sedimentary fractions, and information on trace element geochemical partitioning can contribute to provide comprehensive evidences on elemental sensitivity to particular processes. The potential effect of sedimentary pyrite re-oxidative cycling on the degree of trace metal pyritization (DTMP) has not been previously evaluated. This study investigates this effect in 4 sediment cores from the continental shelf under the influence of a tropical upwelling system (Cabo Frio, Brazil). The relation of DTMP with stable isotope signals (δ34SCRS) of chromium reducible sulfur, which becomes lighter in response to intense pyrite re-oxidative cycling in the study area, suggests high (As, Cd and Mn), low (Cu and Zn) or negligible (Cr and Ni) re-oxidation influences. The oldest, pyrite-richer sediments provide an apparent threshold for intense pyrite re-oxidation, after which most trace elements (As, Cd, Zn and Mn) presented more accentuated pyritization. A middle shelf core presented negative correlations of reactive (HCl-soluble) Mn, Cu and Ni with pyrite iron, suggesting Mn oxide (and associated metals) depletion in reaction with pyrite. Results provided evidences for coupled influences from both aerobic and anaerobic oxidative processes on trace elements incorporation into pyrite. Pyrite δ34S signatures under the oxic bottom water from the study area were similar to those from euxinic sedimentary environments, suggesting that pyrite re-oxidative cycling can affect trace element susceptibility to be incorporated and preserved into pyrite in a wide range of sedimentary conditions. The evaluation of trace elements sensitivity to these processes can contribute to improve the use of multiple DTMP data (e.g., as paleoredox proxies). Considering that S re-oxidative cycling is ubiquitous in many sedimentary conditions, such coupled use of DTMP and δ34SCRS proxies can be possibly applied to a large variety of sedimentary environments.

The diatom record from beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global proxy perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scherer, Reed P.

1993-01-01

Recent glaciological evaluation and modeling of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) support the possibility that the WAIS disintegrated during one or more Pleistocene interglacial period(s). The magnitude of sea level and oxygen isotope variation during certain late-Pleistocene interglacial periods is also consistent with the possibility of major retreat of the WAIS. Although oxygen isotopes from deep-sea sediments provide the best available proxy record for global ice volume (despite the ambiguities in the record), the source of ice volume changes must be hypothesized. Based on the intensity of interglacial isotopic shifts recorded in Southern Ocean marine sedimentary records, stage 11 (400,000 years ago) is the strongest candidate for WAIS collapse, but the records for stages 9, 7, and 5.5 are all consistent with the possibility of multiple late-Pleistocene collapses. Seismic reflection studies through the WAIS have revealed thick successions of strata with seismic characteristics comparable to upper Tertiary marine sediments. Small samples of glacial diamictons from beneath the ice sheet have been collected via hot-water drilled access holes. These sediments include mixed diatom assemblages of varying ages. Late-Miocene diatoms dominate many samples, probably reflecting marine deposition in West Antarctic basins prior to development of a dominantly glacial phase in West Antarctica. In addition to late-Miocene diatoms, samples from Upstream B (1988/89) contain rare post-Miocene diatoms, many of which imply deposition in the West Antarctic interior during one or more Pleistocene deglaciation periods. Age-diagnostic fossils in glacial sediments beneath ice sheets provide relatively coarse chronostratigraphic control, but they do contain direct evidence of regional deglaciation. Thus, sub-glacial till samples provide the evidence regarding the source of ice sheet variability seen in well-dated proxy records. Combined, these independent data sets can provide a more comprehensive and less speculative interpretation of the history of past glacial minima in currently glaciated polar regions.

Comparing ungulate dietary proxies using discriminant function analysis.

PubMed

Fraser, Danielle; Theodor, Jessica M

2011-12-01

A variety of tooth-wear and morphological dietary proxies have been proposed for ungulates. In turn, they have been applied to fossil specimens with the purpose of reconstructing the diets of extinct taxa. Although these dietary proxies have been used in isolation and in combination, a consistent set of statistical analyses has never been applied to all of the available datasets. The purpose of this study is to determine how well the most commonly used dietary proxies classify ungulates as browsers, grazers, and mixed feeders individually and in combination. Discriminant function analysis is applied to individual dietary proxies (hypsodonty, mesowear, microwear, and several cranial dietary proxies) and to combinations thereof to compare rates of successful dietary classification. In general, the tooth-wear dietary proxies (mesowear and microwear) perform better than morphological dietary proxies, though none are strong proxies in isolation. The success rates of the cranial dietary proxies are not increased substantially when ruminants and bovids are analyzed separately, and significance among the three dietary guilds is reduced when controlling for phylogenetic relatedness. The combination of hypsodonty, mesowear, and microwear is found to have a high rate of successful dietary classification, but a combination of all commonly used proxies increases the success rate to 100%. In most cases, mixed feeders bear the greatest resemblance to browsers suggesting that a morphology intermediate to browsers and grazers may represent a fitness valley resulting from the inability to exploit both browse and graze efficiently. These results are important for future paleoecological studies and should be used as a guide for determining which dietary proxies are appropriate to the research question. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Different immune cells mediate mechanical pain hypersensitivity in male and female mice

PubMed Central

Sorge, Robert E.; Mapplebeck, Josiane C.S.; Rosen, Sarah; Beggs, Simon; Taves, Sarah; Alexander, Jessica K.; Martin, Loren J.; Austin, Jean-Sebastien; Sotocinal, Susana G.; Chen, Di; Yang, Mu; Shi, Xiang Qun; Huang, Hao; Pillon, Nicolas J.; Bilan, Philip J.; Tu, Yu Shan; Klip, Amira; Ji, Ru-Rong; Zhang, Ji; Salter, Michael W.; Mogil, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

A large and rapidly increasing body of evidence indicates that microglia-neuron signaling is essential for chronic pain hypersensitivity. Here we show using multiple approaches that microglia are not required for mechanical pain hypersensitivity in female mice; female mice achieve similar levels of pain hypersensitivity using adaptive immune cells, likely T-lymphocytes. This sexual dimorphism suggests that male mice cannot be used as proxies for females in pain research. PMID:26120961

A multiproxy environmental investigation of Holocene wood from a submerged conifer forest in Lake Huron, USA

Treesearch

R. Douglas Hunter; Irina P. Panyushkina; Steven W. Leavitt; Alex C. Wiedenhoeft; John Zawiskie

2006-01-01

Remains of a Holocene drowned forest in southern Lake Huron discovered in 12.5 m of water (164 m above sea level), 4.5 km east of Lexington, Michigan USA (Sanilac site), provided wood to investigate environment and lake history using several proxies. Macrofossil evidence indicates a forest comprised primarily of conifers equivalent to the modern “rich conifer swamp”...

Transformations and Fates of Terrigenous Dissolved Organic Matter in River-influenced Ocean Margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fichot, Cedric G.

Rivers contribute about 0.25 Pg of terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) to the ocean each year. The fate and transformations of this material have important ramifications for the metabolic state of the ocean, air-sea CO2 exchange, and the global carbon cycle. Stable isotopic compositions and terrestrial biomarkers suggest tDOC must be efficiently mineralized in ocean margins. Nonetheless, the extent of tDOC mineralization in these environments remains unknown, as no quantitative estimate is available. The complex interplay of biogeochemical and physical processes in these systems compounded by the limited practicality of chemical proxies (organic biomarkers, isotopic compositions) make the quantification of tDOC mineralization in these dynamic systems particularly challenging. In this dissertation, new optical proxies were developed (Chapters 1 and 2) and facilitated the first quantitative assessment of tDOC mineralization in a dynamic river-influenced ocean margin (Chapter 3) and the monitoring of continental runoff distributions in the coastal ocean using remote sensing (Chapter 4). The optical properties of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were used as optical proxies for dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) and %tDOC. In both proxies, the CDOM spectral slope coefficient ( S275-295) was exploited for its informative properties on the chemical nature and composition of dissolved organic matter. In the first proxy, a strong relationship between S275-295 and the ratio of CDOM absorption to [DOC] facilitated accurate retrieval (+/- 4%) of [DOC] from CDOM. In the second proxy, the existence of a strong relationship between S275-295 and the DOC-normalized lignin yield facilitated the estimation of the %tDOC from S 275-295. Using the proxies, the tDOC concentration can be retrieved solely from CDOM absorption coefficients (lambda = 275-295 nm) in river-influenced ocean margins. The practicality of optical proxies facilitated the calculation of tDOC mineralization rates on the Louisiana shelf. Seasonal tDOC mass balances for the shelf revealed that between 26% (winter) and 71% (summer) of the mixed layer tDOC is mineralized during its residence on the shelf. Independent approaches further indicated biomineralization accounts for 60% of the tDOC mineralization whereas photomineralization contributes only 8%. The remaining 32% was attributed to the coupled photo-biomineralization. On an annual basis, our results indicated ˜40% of the tDOC discharged by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers to the Louisiana shelf (˜1 Tg tDOC) is mineralized within 2 to 3 months. This extensive mineralization on the shelf is direct evidence ocean margins act as efficient filters of tDOC between the land and ocean. Finally, the amenability of S275-295 to ocean color remote sensing was demonstrated, and facilitates the real-time, synoptic monitoring of tDOC and freshwater runoff in coastal waters. Implementation of this approach provided the first pan-Arctic distributions of tDOC and continental runoff in surface polar waters, and will help understand the manifestations of climate change in this remote region.

Premium campground with lake view - pingo remnants as preferred Mesolithic settlement sites?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüser, Andreas; Enters, Dirk; Wolters, Steffen

2016-04-01

Pingo remnants are typical but not always easily visible landscape features in northwestern Germany and the Netherlands. Some of them are still small lakes but present-day land-use mostly disguises the existence of formerly water-filled depressions. In addition the circular wall structures have often been leveled by agricultural activities in modern times. However, according to estimates several hundreds pingo remnants bearing witness to Weichselian periglacial conditions can still be found in East Frisia and in the area between the rivers Elbe and Weser. Preliminary paleoecological investigations have shown that the majority of them were water-filled until Neolithic times making them a potential campground of preference for the Mesolithic population. In addition to wind shelter behind wall structures or dunes, Mesolithic hunter-gatherer communities could have used here both aquatic and terrestrial food resources. We investigated three of these pingo remnants in northwestern Germany using a multi-proxy approach combining an iterative archaeological site analysis with sediment core studies including geochemical and biological proxies. Our results show that Mesolithic artifacts are often concentrated close to open water bodies. The sediment cores obtained cover the time span from the late Palaeolithic to modern times. Excellent preservation conditions and a moderate sedimentation rate during the Mesolithic enables environmental change to be reconstructed.

CLIMLINK: Climate forcing factors for marine environmental change during the mid- and late Holocene - a link between the NE Atlantic and the Baltic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polovodova Asteman, Irina; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; Bąk, Małgorzata; Binczewska, Anna; Borówka, Ryszard; Dobosz, Sławomir; Jansen, Eystein; Kaniak, Aleksandra; Moros, Matthias; Perner, Kerstin; Sławinska, Joanna

2015-04-01

Climate change has a strong amplifying effect on the environment of marginal seas such as the Baltic Sea. Owing to the connection of the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic (and the resultant pathway of water exchange via the narrow Danish Straits), changes in the Baltic region are suggested to be driven by external oceanic and atmospheric forcing originating in the Atlantic, particularly in the eastern Nordic seas, the Skagerrak, and the Kattegat. CLIMLINK aims to reconstruct mid- to late Holocene ecosystem changes in these regions and identify linkages, common forcing factors and effects for the Baltic Sea on a millennial to decadal time scale. High-resolution sediment records from selected key sites in the Norwegian Trench, and central Baltic Sea are studied by using a multi-proxy approach. Micropalaeontological studies of diatoms and foraminifera are combined with geochemical proxies, such as stable isotopes, Mg/Ca, TOC, TIC, C/N, XRF and magnetic susceptibility in order to achieve a more comprehensive view on environmental changes during the last 6000 to 8000 years. The chronology of the sediment cores is secured by using multiple dating tools: Hg-pollution records, 137Cs, 210Pb, 14C and tephra layers. Herein we present the initial results of the project.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction over 9 Millennia from a Composite 14C and 10Be Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Krivova, N.; Kovaltsov, G.; Solanki, S. K.

2017-12-01

The Sun is the main external energy source to the Earth and thus the knowledge of solar variability on different time scales is important for understanding the solar influence on the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. The overall energy input and its spectral distribution are described by the total (TSI) and spectral (SSI) solar irradiance, respectively. Direct measurements of the solar irradiance provide information on solar variability on the decadal and shorter time scales, while the sunspot number record covers four centuries. On yet longer time scales only indirect proxies can be used, such as the concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. These isotopes are produced in the terrestrial atmosphere by impinging cosmic rays, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. Therefore the isotope data retrieved from various natural archives around the globe show a very high degree of similarity reflecting changes in the solar activity. Nevertheless, significant short-term deviations can be observed due to the different geochemical production processes and local climatic conditions. We will present the newest TSI/SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years based on a new consistent composite multi-isotope proxy series. The solar irradiance reconstruction reveals the global and robust pattern of solar variability in the past.

Changes in sea ice cover and ice sheet extent at the Yermak Plateau during the last 160 ka - Reconstructions from biomarker records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremer, A.; Stein, R.; Fahl, K.; Ji, Z.; Yang, Z.; Wiers, S.; Matthiessen, J.; Forwick, M.; Löwemark, L.; O'Regan, M.; Chen, J.; Snowball, I.

2018-02-01

The Yermak Plateau is located north of Svalbard at the entrance to the Arctic Ocean, i.e. in an area highly sensitive to climate change. A multi proxy approach was carried out on Core PS92/039-2 to study glacial-interglacial environmental changes at the northern Barents Sea margin during the last 160 ka. The main emphasis was on the reconstruction of sea ice cover, based on the sea ice proxy IP25 and the related phytoplankton - sea ice index PIP25. Sea ice was present most of the time but showed significant temporal variability decisively affected by movements of the Svalbard Barents Sea Ice Sheet. For the first time, we prove the occurrence of seasonal sea ice at the eastern Yermak Plateau during glacial intervals, probably steered by a major northward advance of the ice sheet and the formation of a coastal polynya in front of it. Maximum accumulation of terrigenous organic carbon, IP25 and the phytoplankton biomarkers (brassicasterol, dinosterol, HBI III) can be correlated to distinct deglaciation events. More severe, but variable sea ice cover prevailed at the Yermak Plateau during interglacials. The general proximity to the sea ice margin is further indicated by biomarker (GDGT) - based sea surface temperatures below 2.5 °C.

A medical application integrating remote 3D visualization tools to access picture archiving and communication system on mobile devices.

PubMed

He, Longjun; Ming, Xing; Liu, Qian

2014-04-01

With computing capability and display size growing, the mobile device has been used as a tool to help clinicians view patient information and medical images anywhere and anytime. However, for direct interactive 3D visualization, which plays an important role in radiological diagnosis, the mobile device cannot provide a satisfactory quality of experience for radiologists. This paper developed a medical system that can get medical images from the picture archiving and communication system on the mobile device over the wireless network. In the proposed application, the mobile device got patient information and medical images through a proxy server connecting to the PACS server. Meanwhile, the proxy server integrated a range of 3D visualization techniques, including maximum intensity projection, multi-planar reconstruction and direct volume rendering, to providing shape, brightness, depth and location information generated from the original sectional images for radiologists. Furthermore, an algorithm that changes remote render parameters automatically to adapt to the network status was employed to improve the quality of experience. Finally, performance issues regarding the remote 3D visualization of the medical images over the wireless network of the proposed application were also discussed. The results demonstrated that this proposed medical application could provide a smooth interactive experience in the WLAN and 3G networks.

Tropical Pacific climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly: progress and pitfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Charles, C.; Sayani, H. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.; Atwood, A. R.

2016-12-01

A vast trove of paleoclimate records indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1200AD) was characterized by relative warmth throughout the Northern Hemisphere and significant hydroclimate anomalies - particularly well-resolved over North America - that posed a challenge to human populations. The global-scale nature of the climate anomalies has driven speculation that the tropical Pacific, with its rich spectrum of natural variability and far-reaching impact, may have undergone a prolonged reorganization during the MCA. While some key records from across the tropical Pacific document significant changes in temperature and/or hydrology, a dynamically-consistent picture of the MCA tropical Pacific climate state has proven elusive. In particular, there are few if any robust paleoclimate constraints from the central Pacific, where even modest changes in ocean temperature translate into distinct patterns of global atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we present a new collection of fossil coral multi-proxy records from Christmas Island (2N, 157W) that provide robust constraints on both temperature and hydrological changes during the MCA. We employ both modern coral data, instrumental climate data, and climate model output in developing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties associated with the new fossil coral data. In doing so, we illustrate the clear benefits of modern environmental monitoring campaigns that inform the generation of paleoclimate pseudo-proxies.

Developing Present-day Proxy Cases Based on NARVAL Data for Investigating Low Level Cloud Responses to Future Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, Stephanie

2017-04-01

The energy budget of the entire global climate is significantly influenced by the presence of boundary layer clouds. The main aim of the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2) project is to improve climate model predictions by means of process studies of clouds and precipitation. This study makes use of observed elevated moisture layers as a proxy of future changes in tropospheric humidity. The associated impact on radiative transfer triggers fast responses in boundary layer clouds, providing a framework for investigating this phenomenon. The investigation will be carried out using data gathered during the Next-generation Aircraft Remote-sensing for VALidation (NARVAL) South campaigns. Observational data will be combined with ECMWF reanalysis data to derive the large scale forcings for the Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Simulations will be generated for a range of elevated moisture layers, spanning a multi-dimensional phase space in depth, amplitude, elevation, and cloudiness. The NARVAL locations will function as anchor-points. The results of the large eddy simulations and the observations will be studied and compared in an attempt to determine how simulated boundary layer clouds react to changes in radiative transfer from the free troposphere. Preliminary LES results will be presented and discussed.

LA-ICP-MS-derived U-concentrations and microstructural domains within biogenic aragonite of Arctica islandica shell.

PubMed

Helama, Samuli; Heikkilä, Pasi; Rinne, Katja; Nielsen, Jan Kresten; Nielsen, Jesper Kresten

2015-05-01

Understanding of the uranium uptake processes (both in vivo and post-mortem) into the skeletal structures of marine calcifiers is a subject of multi-disciplinary interest. U-concentration changes within the molluscan shell may serve as a paleoceanographic proxy of the pH history. A proxy of this type is needed to track the effects of fossil fuel emissions to ocean acidification. Moreover, attaining reliable U-series dates using shell materials would be a geochronological breakthrough. Picturing the high-resolution changes of U-concentrations in shell profiles is now possible by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Here, we analyzed in situ U-concentration variations in sub-fossilized shells of ocean quahog (Arctica islandica), a commonly studied bivalve species in Quaternary geoscience, using LA-ICP-MS. Microstructural details of the shell profiles were achieved by the scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Comparison of the shell aragonite microstructure with the changes in U-concentration revealed that uranium of possibly secondary origin is concentrated into the porous granular layers of the shell. Our results reinforce the hypothesis that U-concentration variations can be linked with microstructural differences within the shell. A combination of LA-ICP-MS and SEM analyses is recommended as an interesting approach for understanding the U-concentration variations in similar materials.

Generalist solutions to complex problems: generating practice-based evidence - the example of managing multi-morbidity

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A growing proportion of people are living with long term conditions. The majority have more than one. Dealing with multi-morbidity is a complex problem for health systems: for those designing and implementing healthcare as well as for those providing the evidence informing practice. Yet the concept of multi-morbidity (the presence of >2 diseases) is a product of the design of health care systems which define health care need on the basis of disease status. So does the solution lie in an alternative model of healthcare? Discussion Strengthening generalist practice has been proposed as part of the solution to tackling multi-morbidity. Generalism is a professional philosophy of practice, deeply known to many practitioners, and described as expertise in whole person medicine. But generalism lacks the evidence base needed by policy makers and planners to support service redesign. The challenge is to fill this practice-research gap in order to critically explore if and when generalist care offers a robust alternative to management of this complex problem. We need practice-based evidence to fill this gap. By recognising generalist practice as a ‘complex intervention’ (intervening in a complex system), we outline an approach to evaluate impact using action-research principles. We highlight the implications for those who both commission and undertake research in order to tackle this problem. Summary Answers to the complex problem of multi-morbidity won’t come from doing more of the same. We need to change systems of care, and so the systems for generating evidence to support that care. This paper contributes to that work through outlining a process for generating practice-based evidence of generalist solutions to the complex problem of person-centred care for people with multi-morbidity. PMID:23919296

Multi-criteria clinical decision support: A primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare.

PubMed

Dolan, James G

2010-01-01

Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers.Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine "hard data" with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings.The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Multi-criteria clinical decision support: A primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.

2010-01-01

Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers. Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine “hard data” with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings. The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) PMID:21394218

Generalist solutions to complex problems: generating practice-based evidence--the example of managing multi-morbidity.

PubMed

Reeve, Joanne; Blakeman, Tom; Freeman, George K; Green, Larry A; James, Paul A; Lucassen, Peter; Martin, Carmel M; Sturmberg, Joachim P; van Weel, Chris

2013-08-07

A growing proportion of people are living with long term conditions. The majority have more than one. Dealing with multi-morbidity is a complex problem for health systems: for those designing and implementing healthcare as well as for those providing the evidence informing practice. Yet the concept of multi-morbidity (the presence of >2 diseases) is a product of the design of health care systems which define health care need on the basis of disease status. So does the solution lie in an alternative model of healthcare? Strengthening generalist practice has been proposed as part of the solution to tackling multi-morbidity. Generalism is a professional philosophy of practice, deeply known to many practitioners, and described as expertise in whole person medicine. But generalism lacks the evidence base needed by policy makers and planners to support service redesign. The challenge is to fill this practice-research gap in order to critically explore if and when generalist care offers a robust alternative to management of this complex problem. We need practice-based evidence to fill this gap. By recognising generalist practice as a 'complex intervention' (intervening in a complex system), we outline an approach to evaluate impact using action-research principles. We highlight the implications for those who both commission and undertake research in order to tackle this problem. Answers to the complex problem of multi-morbidity won't come from doing more of the same. We need to change systems of care, and so the systems for generating evidence to support that care. This paper contributes to that work through outlining a process for generating practice-based evidence of generalist solutions to the complex problem of person-centred care for people with multi-morbidity.

Tales from the South (and West) Pacific in the Common Era: A Climate Proxy Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Partin, J. W.; Maupin, C. R.; Hereid, K. A.; Gorman, M. K.

2010-12-01

The southwest Pacific is a major source of tropical climate variability through heat and moisture exchanges associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). These variations are especially significant at the annual, interannual (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and multi-decadal timescales. Gridded SST data products are available in the pre-satellite era in this region for the past ~130 years, although data density is a significant issue for the older half of these records. Time series of salinity (SSS) and rainfall from this region are exceedingly rare. Thus, climate proxy records must be used to reconstruct SST, SSS, and rainfall variations in the Common Era (CE) in the tropical Pacific. The analytical laboratory for paleoclimate studies at UT has focused its research efforts into producing climate proxy time series from southwest tropical Pacific using modern and fossil corals, and speleothems. Our most recent results are summarized in this presentation, although much of this work is still in progress. Coral climate records have been generated from Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (16°S, 166°E) and Misima Island, Papua New Guinea (10.6°S, 152.8°E). The Vanuatu coral record of monthly resolved Sr/Ca variations extends back to the late 18th century. All strong ENSO warm phase events of the 20th century observed in the instrumental record are also observed in the coral record. We note that several ENSO warm phase events in the 19th century portion of the coral record are comparable in size to that recorded in response to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The Misima coral record of monthly resolved δ18O and Sr/Ca variations spans the interval ~1414-1645 CE — the heart of the Little Ice Age. Amplitude modulation of interannual variability is observed in this LIA record, much like what is observed during the relatively quiescent period of 1920-1950 in the 20th century instrumental and proxy records of ENSO. However, the amplitude of individual ENSO warm phase events in the LIA record is reduced, relative to that of the 1941/1942 ENSO warm phase events observed in a near modern coral record from Misima. Speleothem climate records have been generated from Espirito Santo, Vanuatu (15.5°S, 167°E) and Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands (~9°S, 160°E). The Vanuatu record of δ18O variations is from a fast-growing speleothem (~1-3 mm/year), which yields a record of rainfall variability spanning ~1670-2005 CE, as dated by U-Th disequilibrium techniques. Interannual changes in speleothem δ18O appear to capture ENSO events and subsequent reorganizations of the SPCZ. The Vanuatu speleothem δ18O record also exhibits concentrations of variance on the decadal scale. The Guadalcanal record of δ18O variations is also from a fast-growing speleothem (~1-4 mm/year), which yields a record of rainfall variability spanning ~1650-2010 CE, as dated by U-Th disequilibrium techniques. The δ18O records from both of these stalagmites provide evidence for changes in convection in the equatorial WPWP region of the SPCZ: the rising limb of the Pacific Walker Circulation.

Fidelity of the Sr/Ca proxy in recording ocean temperature in the western Atlantic coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Roberts, Kelsey E.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Morrison, Jennifer M.; Richey, Julie N.

2017-01-01

Massive corals provide a useful archive of environmental variability, but careful testing of geochemical proxies in corals is necessary to validate the relationship between each proxy and environmental parameter throughout the full range of conditions experienced by the recording organisms. Here we use samples from a coral-growth study to test the hypothesis that Sr/Ca in the coral Siderastrea siderea accurately records sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropics (Florida, USA) along 350 km of reef tract. We test calcification rate, measured via buoyant weight, and linear extension (LE) rate, estimated with Alizarin Red-S staining, as predictors of variance in the Sr/Ca records of 39 individual S. siderea corals grown at four outer-reef locations next to in-situ temperature loggers during two, year-long periods. We found that corals with calcification rates < 1.7 mg cm-2 d-1 or < 1.7 mm yr-1 LE returned spuriously high Sr/Ca values, leading to a cold-bias in Sr/Ca-based SST estimates. The threshold-type response curves suggest that extension rate can be used as a quality-control indicator during sample and drill-path selection when using long cores for SST paleoreconstruction. For our corals that passed this quality control step, the Sr/Ca-SST proxy performed well in estimating mean annual temperature across three sites spanning 350 km of the Florida reef tract. However, there was some evidence that extreme temperature stress in 2010 (cold snap) and 2011 (SST above coral-bleaching threshold) may have caused the corals not to record the temperature extremes. Known stress events could be avoided during modern calibrations of paleoproxies.