The System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA). A tool in rational drug selection for formulary inclusion.

PubMed

Janknegt, R; Steenhoek, A

1997-04-01

Rational drug selection for formulary purposes is important. Besides rational selection criteria, other factors play a role in drug decision making, such as emotional, personal financial and even unconscious criteria. It is agreed that these factors should be excluded as much as possible in the decision making process. A model for drug decision making for formulary purposes is described, the System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA). In the SOJA method, selection criteria for a given group of drugs are prospectively defined and the extent to which each drug fulfils the requirements for each criterion is determined. Each criterion is given a relative weight, i.e. the more important a given selection criterion is considered, the higher the relative weight. Both the relative scores for each drug per selection criterion and the relative weight of each criterion are determined by a panel of experts in this field. The following selection criteria are applied in all SOJA scores: clinical efficacy, incidence and severity of adverse effects, dosage frequency, drug interactions, acquisition cost, documentation, pharmacokinetics and pharmaceutical aspects. Besides these criteria, group specific criteria are also used, such as development of resistance when a SOJA score was made for antimicrobial agents. The relative weight that is assigned to each criterion will always be a subject of discussion. Therefore, interactive software programs for use on a personal computer have been developed, in which the user of the system may enter their own personal relative weight to each selection criterion and make their own personal SOJA score. The main advantage of the SOJA method is that all nonrational selection criteria are excluded and that drug decision making is based solely on rational criteria. The use of the interactive SOJA discs makes the decision process fully transparent as it becomes clear on which criteria and weighting decisions are based. We have seen that the use of this method for drug decision making greatly aids the discussion in the formulary committee, as discussion becomes much more concrete. The SOJA method is time dependent. Documentation on most products is still increasing and the score for this criterion will therefore change continuously. New products are introduced and prices are also subject to change. To overcome the time-dependence of the SOJA method, regular updates of interactive software programs are being made, in which changes in acquisition cost, documentation or a different weighting of criteria are included, as well as newly introduced products. The possibility of changing the official acquisition cost into the actual purchasing costs for the hospital in question provides a tailor-made interactive program.

Performance Standards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burton, Nancy W.

2011-01-01

The educational technologies of the past quarter century--from teaching machines to minimal competency testing--all share the general purpose of helping educators make better, or more uniform, decisions. The currently favored technique for shaping local decisions is criterion-referenced testing. Some criterion-referenced testers first find out how…

Health Economic Data in Reimbursement of New Medical Technologies: Importance of the Socio-Economic Burden as a Decision-Making Criterion.

PubMed

Iskrov, Georgi; Dermendzhiev, Svetlan; Miteva-Katrandzhieva, Tsonka; Stefanov, Rumen

2016-01-01

Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies. This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria. Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation. New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

PubMed

Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

2018-04-09

Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.

Applications of Decision Theory to Test-Based Decision Making. Project Psychometric Aspects of Item Banking No. 23. Research Report 87-9.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be identified as a specific configuration of one or…

A discrimination task used as a novel method of testing decision-making behavior following traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Martens, Kris M; Vonder Haar, Cole; Hutsell, Blake A; Hoane, Michael R

2012-10-10

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) results in a multitude of deficits following injury. Some of the most pervasive in humans are the changes that affect frontally-mediated cognitive functioning, such as decision making. The assessment of decision-making behavior in rodents has been extensively tested in the field of the experimental analysis of behavior. However, due to the narrow therapeutic window following TBI, time-intensive operant paradigms are rarely incorporated into the battery of tests traditionally used, the majority of which assess motor and sensory functioning. The cognitive measures that are used are frequently limited to memory and do not account for changes in decision-making behavior. The purpose of the present study was to develop a simplified discrimination task that can assess deficits in decision-making behavior in rodents. For the task, rats were required to dig in cocoa-scented sand (versus unscented sand) for a reinforcer. Rats were given 12 sessions per day until a criterion level of 80% accuracy for 3 days straight was reached. Once the criterion was achieved, cortical contusion injuries were induced (frontal, parietal, or sham). Following a recovery period, the rats were re-tested on cocoa versus unscented sand. Upon reaching criterion, a reversal discrimination was evaluated in which the reinforcer was placed in unscented sand. Finally, a novel scent discrimination (basil versus coffee with basil reinforced), and a reversal (coffee) were evaluated. The results indicated that the Dig task is a simple experimental preparation that can be used to assess deficits in decision-making behavior following TBI.

Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions. PMID:22335815

Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Defechereux, Thierry; Paolucci, Francesco; Mirelman, Andrew; Youngkong, Sitaporn; Botten, Grete; Hagen, Terje P; Niessen, Louis W

2012-02-15

Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

Criterion-Referenced Testing and Measurement: A Review of Technical Issues and Developments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hambleton, Ronald K.; And Others

The success of objectives-based programs depends to a considerable extent on how effectively students and teachers assess mastery of objectives and make decisions for future instruction. While educators disagree on the usefulness of criterion-referenced tests the position taken in this monograph is that criterion-referenced tests are useful, and…

What Is True Halving in the Payoff Matrix of Game Theory?

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

In game theory, there are two social interpretations of rewards (payoffs) for decision-making strategies: (1) the interpretation based on the utility criterion derived from expected utility theory and (2) the interpretation based on the quantitative criterion (amount of gain) derived from validity in the empirical context. A dynamic decision theory has recently been developed in which dynamic utility is a conditional (state) variable that is a function of the current wealth of a decision maker. We applied dynamic utility to the equal division in dove-dove contests in the hawk-dove game. Our results indicate that under the utility criterion, the half-share of utility becomes proportional to a player’s current wealth. Our results are consistent with studies of the sense of fairness in animals, which indicate that the quantitative criterion has greater validity than the utility criterion. We also find that traditional analyses of repeated games must be reevaluated. PMID:27487194

What Is True Halving in the Payoff Matrix of Game Theory?

PubMed

Ito, Hiromu; Katsumata, Yuki; Hasegawa, Eisuke; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

In game theory, there are two social interpretations of rewards (payoffs) for decision-making strategies: (1) the interpretation based on the utility criterion derived from expected utility theory and (2) the interpretation based on the quantitative criterion (amount of gain) derived from validity in the empirical context. A dynamic decision theory has recently been developed in which dynamic utility is a conditional (state) variable that is a function of the current wealth of a decision maker. We applied dynamic utility to the equal division in dove-dove contests in the hawk-dove game. Our results indicate that under the utility criterion, the half-share of utility becomes proportional to a player's current wealth. Our results are consistent with studies of the sense of fairness in animals, which indicate that the quantitative criterion has greater validity than the utility criterion. We also find that traditional analyses of repeated games must be reevaluated.

Multi-view Decision Making (MVDM) Workshop

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

reflect the realities of system-of-systems development, acquisition, fielding and support: multi-view decision making (MVDM). MVDM addresses the...including mission risk, interoperable acquisition, and operational security and survivability. Hence, a multi-view approach to decision making is

AHP for Risk Management Based on Expected Utility Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, Rumiko; Miyagi, Hayao

This paper presents a model of decision-making considering the risk assessment. The conventional evaluation in AHP is considered to be a kind of utility. When dealing with the risk, however, it is necessary to consider the probability of damage. In order to take risk into decision-making problem, we construct AHP based on expected utility. The risk is considered as a related element of criterion rather than criterion itself. The expected utility is integrated, considering that satisfaction is positive utility and damage by risk is negative utility. Then, evaluation in AHP is executed using the expected utility.

Multi-criteria clinical decision support: A primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare.

PubMed

Dolan, James G

2010-01-01

Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers.Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine "hard data" with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings.The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Multi-criteria clinical decision support: A primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.

2010-01-01

Current models of healthcare quality recommend that patient management decisions be evidence-based and patient-centered. Evidence-based decisions require a thorough understanding of current information regarding the natural history of disease and the anticipated outcomes of different management options. Patient-centered decisions incorporate patient preferences, values, and unique personal circumstances into the decision making process and actively involve both patients along with health care providers as much as possible. Fundamentally, therefore, evidence-based, patient-centered decisions are multi-dimensional and typically involve multiple decision makers. Advances in the decision sciences have led to the development of a number of multiple criteria decision making methods. These multi-criteria methods are designed to help people make better choices when faced with complex decisions involving several dimensions. They are especially helpful when there is a need to combine “hard data” with subjective preferences, to make trade-offs between desired outcomes, and to involve multiple decision makers. Evidence-based, patient-centered clinical decision making has all of these characteristics. This close match suggests that clinical decision support systems based on multi-criteria decision making techniques have the potential to enable patients and providers to carry out the tasks required to implement evidence-based, patient-centered care effectively and efficiently in clinical settings. The goal of this paper is to give readers a general introduction to the range of multi-criteria methods available and show how they could be used to support clinical decision-making. Methods discussed include the balance sheet, the even swap method, ordinal ranking methods, direct weighting methods, multi-attribute decision analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) PMID:21394218

Evaluation of purchase intention of customers in two wheeler automobile segment: AHP and TOPSIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sri Yogi, Kottala

2018-03-01

Winning heart of customers is preeminent main design of any business organization in global business environment. This paper explored customer’s priorities while purchasing a two wheeler automobile segment using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) as a multi criteria decision making tools to accomplish the research objectives. Study has been done to analyze different criteria to be considered during purchasing of two wheeler automobiles among respondents using structured questionnaire based on SAATY scale. Based on our previous work on empirical & fuzzy logic approach to product quality and purchase intention of customers in two wheeler- operational, performance, economic, brand value and maintenance aspects are considered as decision criteria of customers while purchasing a two wheeler. The study suggests high pick up during overtaking, petrol saving, reasonable spare parts price, unique in design and identity and easy to change gear as main criterion in purchasing process. We also found some leading two wheeler automobiles models available in Indian market using some objective function criterion in choosing some important characteristics like price, cylinder capacity, brake horse power and weight during purchasing process of two wheeler automobile in Indian market based on respondents perception.

A Decision-Making Method with Grey Multi-Source Heterogeneous Data and Its Application in Green Supplier Selection

PubMed Central

Dang, Yaoguo; Mao, Wenxin

2018-01-01

In view of the multi-attribute decision-making problem that the attribute values are grey multi-source heterogeneous data, a decision-making method based on kernel and greyness degree is proposed. The definitions of kernel and greyness degree of an extended grey number in a grey multi-source heterogeneous data sequence are given. On this basis, we construct the kernel vector and greyness degree vector of the sequence to whiten the multi-source heterogeneous information, then a grey relational bi-directional projection ranking method is presented. Considering the multi-attribute multi-level decision structure and the causalities between attributes in decision-making problem, the HG-DEMATEL method is proposed to determine the hierarchical attribute weights. A green supplier selection example is provided to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the proposed method. PMID:29510521

A Decision-Making Method with Grey Multi-Source Heterogeneous Data and Its Application in Green Supplier Selection.

PubMed

Sun, Huifang; Dang, Yaoguo; Mao, Wenxin

2018-03-03

In view of the multi-attribute decision-making problem that the attribute values are grey multi-source heterogeneous data, a decision-making method based on kernel and greyness degree is proposed. The definitions of kernel and greyness degree of an extended grey number in a grey multi-source heterogeneous data sequence are given. On this basis, we construct the kernel vector and greyness degree vector of the sequence to whiten the multi-source heterogeneous information, then a grey relational bi-directional projection ranking method is presented. Considering the multi-attribute multi-level decision structure and the causalities between attributes in decision-making problem, the HG-DEMATEL method is proposed to determine the hierarchical attribute weights. A green supplier selection example is provided to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the proposed method.

Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landmesser, John Andrew

2014-01-01

Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

Multi-criteria decision making to support waste management: A critical review of current practices and methods.

PubMed

Goulart Coelho, Lineker M; Lange, Liséte C; Coelho, Hosmanny Mg

2017-01-01

Solid waste management is a complex domain involving the interaction of several dimensions; thus, its analysis and control impose continuous challenges for decision makers. In this context, multi-criteria decision-making models have become important and convenient supporting tools for solid waste management because they can handle problems involving multiple dimensions and conflicting criteria. However, the selection of the multi-criteria decision-making method is a hard task since there are several multi-criteria decision-making approaches, each one with a large number of variants whose applicability depends on information availability and the aim of the study. Therefore, to support researchers and decision makers, the objectives of this article are to present a literature review of multi-criteria decision-making applications used in solid waste management, offer a critical assessment of the current practices, and provide suggestions for future works. A brief review of fundamental concepts on this topic is first provided, followed by the analysis of 260 articles related to the application of multi-criteria decision making in solid waste management. These studies were investigated in terms of the methodology, including specific steps such as normalisation, weighting, and sensitivity analysis. In addition, information related to waste type, the study objective, and aspects considered was recorded. From the articles analysed it is noted that studies using multi-criteria decision making in solid waste management are predominantly addressed to problems related to municipal solid waste involving facility location or management strategy.

Shared decision-making at the end of life: A focus group study exploring the perceptions and experiences of multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals working in the home setting.

PubMed

Brogan, Paula; Hasson, Felicity; McIlfatrick, Sonja

2018-01-01

Globally recommended in healthcare policy, Shared Decision-Making is also central to international policy promoting community palliative care. Yet realities of implementation by multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals who provide end-of-life care in the home are unclear. To explore multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals' perceptions and experiences of Shared Decision-Making at end of life in the home. Qualitative design using focus groups, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. A total of 43 participants, from multi-disciplinary community-based services in one region of the United Kingdom, were recruited. While the rhetoric of Shared Decision-Making was recognised, its implementation was impacted by several interconnecting factors, including (1) conceptual confusion regarding Shared Decision-Making, (2) uncertainty in the process and (3) organisational factors which impeded Shared Decision-Making. Multiple interacting factors influence implementation of Shared Decision-Making by professionals working in complex community settings at the end of life. Moving from rhetoric to reality requires future work exploring the realities of Shared Decision-Making practice at individual, process and systems levels.

The ethics of end-of-life decisions in the elderly: deliberations from the ECOPE study.

PubMed

Reiter-Theil, Stella

2003-06-01

Is age a factor underlying clinical decision-making? Should age be a criterion in the allocation of health care resources? Is it correct to criticize this approach as 'ageism'? What role does 'paternalism' play? These questions are the focus of this chapter which takes an interdisciplinary perspective of clinical ethics in order to provide an ethical evaluation of the situation of the elderly in health care. First, the text of the chapter is based on the descriptive level referring to (a) clinical ethics consultation, (b) the ECOPE study on 'Ethical Conditions of Passive Euthanasia' focusing on decision-making, and studies about age as a factor in clinical decisions, such as the American SUPPORT study. Second, at the normative level, ethical deliberations are discussed for and against age as a criterion for allocating health care resources. Finally, it is suggested that the differences in evidence to be found about the role of age as a factor in clinical decision-making may be due to the different national health policies as well as to the insufficient awareness of ethical principles violated by covert 'ageist' attitudes.

Finding the numerical compensation in multiple criteria decision-making problems under fuzzy environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Mahima; Mohanty, B. K.

2017-04-01

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to derive the level of compensation numerically in multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems under fuzzy environment. The degree of compensation is dependent on the tranquility and anxiety level experienced by the decision-maker while taking the decision. Higher tranquility leads to the higher realisation of the compensation whereas the increased level of anxiety reduces the amount of compensation in the decision process. This work determines the level of tranquility (or anxiety) using the concept of fuzzy sets and its various level sets. The concepts of indexing of fuzzy numbers, the risk barriers and the tranquility level of the decision-maker are used to derive his/her risk prone or risk averse attitude of decision-maker in each criterion. The aggregation of the risk levels in each criterion gives us the amount of compensation in the entire MCDM problem. Inclusion of the compensation leads us to model the MCDM problem as binary integer programming problem (BIP). The solution to BIP gives us the compensatory decision to MCDM. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a numerical example.

Method Development for Clinical Comprehensive Evaluation of Pediatric Drugs Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Application to Inhaled Corticosteroids for Children with Asthma.

PubMed

Yu, Yuncui; Jia, Lulu; Meng, Yao; Hu, Lihua; Liu, Yiwei; Nie, Xiaolu; Zhang, Meng; Zhang, Xuan; Han, Sheng; Peng, Xiaoxia; Wang, Xiaoling

2018-04-01

Establishing a comprehensive clinical evaluation system is critical in enacting national drug policy and promoting rational drug use. In China, the 'Clinical Comprehensive Evaluation System for Pediatric Drugs' (CCES-P) project, which aims to compare drugs based on clinical efficacy and cost effectiveness to help decision makers, was recently proposed; therefore, a systematic and objective method is required to guide the process. An evidence-based multi-criteria decision analysis model that involved an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was developed, consisting of nine steps: (1) select the drugs to be reviewed; (2) establish the evaluation criterion system; (3) determine the criterion weight based on the AHP; (4) construct the evidence body for each drug under evaluation; (5) select comparative measures and calculate the original utility score; (6) place a common utility scale and calculate the standardized utility score; (7) calculate the comprehensive utility score; (8) rank the drugs; and (9) perform a sensitivity analysis. The model was applied to the evaluation of three different inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) used for asthma management in children (a total of 16 drugs with different dosage forms and strengths or different manufacturers). By applying the drug analysis model, the 16 ICSs under review were successfully scored and evaluated. Budesonide suspension for inhalation (drug ID number: 7) ranked the highest, with comprehensive utility score of 80.23, followed by fluticasone propionate inhaled aerosol (drug ID number: 16), with a score of 79.59, and budesonide inhalation powder (drug ID number: 6), with a score of 78.98. In the sensitivity analysis, the ranking of the top five and lowest five drugs remains unchanged, suggesting this model is generally robust. An evidence-based drug evaluation model based on AHP was successfully developed. The model incorporates sufficient utility and flexibility for aiding the decision-making process, and can be a useful tool for the CCES-P.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Assessment and Appraisal of Orphan Drugs.

PubMed

Iskrov, Georgi; Miteva-Katrandzhieva, Tsonka; Stefanov, Rumen

2016-01-01

Limited resources and expanding expectations push all countries and types of health systems to adopt new approaches in priority setting and resources allocation. Despite best efforts, it is difficult to reconcile all competing interests, and trade-offs are inevitable. This is why multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has played a major role in recent uptake of value-based reimbursement. MCDA framework enables exploration of stakeholders' preferences, as well as explicit organization of broad range of criteria on which real-world decisions are made. Assessment and appraisal of orphan drugs tend to be one of the most complicated health technology assessment (HTA) tasks. Access to market approved orphan therapies remains an issue. Early constructive dialog among rare disease stakeholders and elaboration of orphan drug-tailored decision support tools could set the scene for ongoing accumulation of evidence, as well as for proper reimbursement decision-making. The objective of this study was to create an MCDA value measurement model to assess and appraise orphan drugs. This was achieved by exploring the preferences on decision criteria's weights and performance scores through a stakeholder-representative survey and a focus group discussion that were both organized in Bulgaria. Decision criteria that describe the health technology's characteristics were unanimously agreed as the most important group of reimbursement considerations. This outcome, combined with the high individual weight of disease severity and disease burden criteria, underlined some of the fundamental principles of health care - equity and fairness. Our study proved that strength of evidence may be a key criterion in orphan drug assessment and appraisal. Evidence is used not only to shape reimbursement decision-making but also to lend legitimacy to policies pursued. The need for real-world data on orphan drugs was largely stressed. Improved knowledge on MCDA feasibility and integration to HTA is of paramount importance, as progress in medicine and innovative health technologies should correspond to patient, health-care system, and societal values.

Multi-criteria group decision making for evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs under uncertainty.

PubMed

Wibowo, Santoso; Deng, Hepu

2015-06-01

This paper presents a multi-criteria group decision making approach for effectively evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs under uncertainty in an organization. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used for adequately representing the subjective and imprecise assessments of the decision makers in evaluating the relative importance of evaluation criteria and the performance of individual e-waste recycling programs with respect to individual criteria in a given situation. An interactive fuzzy multi-criteria decision making algorithm is developed for facilitating consensus building in a group decision making environment to ensure that all the interest of individual decision makers have been appropriately considered in evaluating alternative e-waste recycling programs with respect to their corporate sustainability performance. The developed algorithm is then incorporated into a multi-criteria decision support system for making the overall performance evaluation process effectively and simple to use. Such a multi-criteria decision making system adequately provides organizations with a proactive mechanism for incorporating the concept of corporate sustainability into their regular planning decisions and business practices. An example is presented for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed approach in evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs in organizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing an immersion ESL curriculum using analytic hierarchy process.

PubMed

Tang, Hui-Wen Vivian

2011-11-01

The main purpose of this study is to fill a substantial knowledge gap regarding reaching a uniform group decision in English curriculum design and planning. A comprehensive content-based course criterion model extracted from existing literature and expert opinions was developed. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to identify the relative importance of course criteria for the purpose of tailoring an optimal one-week immersion English as a second language (ESL) curriculum for elementary school students in a suburban county of Taiwan. The hierarchy model and AHP analysis utilized in the present study will be useful for resolving several important multi-criteria decision-making issues in planning and evaluating ESL programs. This study also offers valuable insights and provides a basis for further research in customizing ESL curriculum models for different student populations with distinct learning needs, goals, and socioeconomic backgrounds. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

1977-01-01

Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

Distractor Plausibility and Criterion Placement in Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benjamin, Aaron S.; Bawa, Sameer

2004-01-01

To set an optimal decision criterion on a test of recognition, a subject must estimate the degree to which they can discriminate previously studied from unstudied stimuli. To do so accurately, the subject must assess not only their mastery of the material but also the extent to which the distractors yield mnemonic evidence that makes them…

Eating and drinking interventions for people at risk of lacking decision-making capacity: who decides and how?

PubMed

Clarke, Gemma; Galbraith, Sarah; Woodward, Jeremy; Holland, Anthony; Barclay, Stephen

2015-06-11

Some people with progressive neurological diseases find they need additional support with eating and drinking at mealtimes, and may require artificial nutrition and hydration. Decisions concerning artificial nutrition and hydration at the end of life are ethically complex, particularly if the individual lacks decision-making capacity. Decisions may concern issues of life and death: weighing the potential for increasing morbidity and prolonging suffering, with potentially shortening life. When individuals lack decision-making capacity, the standard processes of obtaining informed consent for medical interventions are disrupted. Increasingly multi-professional groups are being utilised to make difficult ethical decisions within healthcare. This paper reports upon a service evaluation which examined decision-making within a UK hospital Feeding Issues Multi-Professional Team. A three month observation of a hospital-based multi-professional team concerning feeding issues, and a one year examination of their records. The key research questions are: a) How are decisions made concerning artificial nutrition for individuals at risk of lacking decision-making capacity? b) What are the key decision-making factors that are balanced? c) Who is involved in the decision-making process? Decision-making was not a singular decision, but rather involved many different steps. Discussions involving relatives and other clinicians, often took place outside of meetings. Topics of discussion varied but the outcome relied upon balancing the information along four interdependent axes: (1) Risks, burdens and benefits; (2) Treatment goals; (3) Normative ethical values; (4) Interested parties. Decision-making was a dynamic ongoing process with many people involved. The multiple points of decision-making, and the number of people involved with the decision-making process, mean the question of 'who decides' cannot be fully answered. There is a potential for anonymity of multiple decision-makers to arise. Decisions in real world clinical practice may not fit precisely into a model of decision-making. The findings from this service evaluation illustrate that within multi-professional team decision-making; decisions may contain elements of both substituted and supported decision-making, and may be better represented as existing upon a continuum.

Diffusion theory of decision making in continuous report.

PubMed

Smith, Philip L

2016-07-01

I present a diffusion model for decision making in continuous report tasks, in which a continuous, circularly distributed, stimulus attribute in working memory is matched to a representation of the attribute in the stimulus display. Memory retrieval is modeled as a 2-dimensional diffusion process with vector-valued drift on a disk, whose bounding circle represents the decision criterion. The direction and magnitude of the drift vector describe the identity of the stimulus and the quality of its representation in memory, respectively. The point at which the diffusion exits the disk determines the reported value of the attribute and the time to exit the disk determines the decision time. Expressions for the joint distribution of decision times and report outcomes are obtained by means of the Girsanov change-of-measure theorem, which allows the properties of the nonzero-drift diffusion process to be characterized as a function of a Euclidian-distance Bessel process. Predicted report precision is equal to the product of the decision criterion and the drift magnitude and follows a von Mises distribution, in agreement with the treatment of precision in the working memory literature. Trial-to-trial variability in criterion and drift rate leads, respectively, to direct and inverse relationships between report accuracy and decision times, in agreement with, and generalizing, the standard diffusion model of 2-choice decisions. The 2-dimensional model provides a process account of working memory precision and its relationship with the diffusion model, and a new way to investigate the properties of working memory, via the distributions of decision times. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

A framework for designing and analyzing binary decision-making strategies in cellular systems†

PubMed Central

Porter, Joshua R.; Andrews, Burton W.; Iglesias, Pablo A.

2015-01-01

Cells make many binary (all-or-nothing) decisions based on noisy signals gathered from their environment and processed through noisy decision-making pathways. Reducing the effect of noise to improve the fidelity of decision-making comes at the expense of increased complexity, creating a tradeoff between performance and metabolic cost. We present a framework based on rate distortion theory, a branch of information theory, to quantify this tradeoff and design binary decision-making strategies that balance low cost and accuracy in optimal ways. With this framework, we show that several observed behaviors of binary decision-making systems, including random strategies, hysteresis, and irreversibility, are optimal in an information-theoretic sense for various situations. This framework can also be used to quantify the goals around which a decision-making system is optimized and to evaluate the optimality of cellular decision-making systems by a fundamental information-theoretic criterion. As proof of concept, we use the framework to quantify the goals of the externally triggered apoptosis pathway. PMID:22370552

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

PubMed

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-09-17

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

PubMed Central

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-01-01

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

Adaptive Allocation of Decision Making Responsibility Between Human and Computer in Multi-Task Situations. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chu, Y. Y.

1978-01-01

A unified formulation of computer-aided, multi-task, decision making is presented. Strategy for the allocation of decision making responsibility between human and computer is developed. The plans of a flight management systems are studied. A model based on the queueing theory was implemented.

Intuitionistic fuzzy analytical hierarchical processes for selecting the paradigms of mangroves in municipal wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Ouyang, Xiaoguang; Guo, Fen

2018-04-01

Municipal wastewater discharge is widespread and one of the sources of coastal eutrophication, and is especially uncontrolled in developing and undeveloped coastal regions. Mangrove forests are natural filters of pollutants in wastewater. There are three paradigms of mangroves for municipal wastewater treatment and the selection of the optimal one is a multi-criteria decision-making problem. Combining intuitionistic fuzzy theory, the Fuzzy Delphi Method and the fuzzy analytical hierarchical process (AHP), this study develops an intuitionistic fuzzy AHP (IFAHP) method. For the Fuzzy Delphi Method, the judgments of experts and representatives on criterion weights are made by linguistic variables and quantified by intuitionistic fuzzy theory, which is also used to weight the importance of experts and representatives. This process generates the entropy weights of criteria, which are combined with indices values and weights to rank the alternatives by the fuzzy AHP method. The IFAHP method was used to select the optimal paradigm of mangroves for treating municipal wastewater. The entropy weights were entrained by the valid evaluation of 64 experts and representatives via online survey. Natural mangroves were found to be the optimal paradigm for municipal wastewater treatment. By assigning different weights to the criteria, sensitivity analysis shows that natural mangroves remain to be the optimal paradigm under most scenarios. This study stresses the importance of mangroves for wastewater treatment. Decision-makers need to contemplate mangrove reforestation projects, especially where mangroves are highly deforested but wastewater discharge is uncontrolled. The IFAHP method is expected to be applied in other multi-criteria decision-making cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Program management aid for redundancy selection and operational guidelines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodge, P. W.; Davis, W. L.; Frumkin, B.

1972-01-01

Although this criterion was developed specifically for use on the shuttle program, it has application to many other multi-missions programs (i.e. aircraft or mechanisms). The methodology employed is directly applicable even if the tools (nomographs and equations) are for mission peculiar cases. The redundancy selection criterion was developed to insure that both the design and operational cost impacts (life cycle costs) were considered in the selection of the quantity of operational redundancy. These tools were developed as aids in expediting the decision process and not intended as the automatic decision maker. This approach to redundancy selection is unique in that it enables a pseudo systems analysis to be performed on an equipment basis without waiting for all designs to be hardened.

Multi-objective decision-making model based on CBM for an aircraft fleet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Bin; Lin, Lin

2018-04-01

Modern production management patterns, in which multi-unit (e.g., a fleet of aircrafts) are managed in a holistic manner, have brought new challenges for multi-unit maintenance decision making. To schedule a good maintenance plan, not only does the individual machine maintenance have to be considered, but also the maintenance of the other individuals have to be taken into account. Since most condition-based maintenance researches for aircraft focused on solely reducing maintenance cost or maximizing the availability of single aircraft, as well as considering that seldom researches concentrated on both the two objectives: minimizing cost and maximizing the availability of a fleet (total number of available aircraft in fleet), a multi-objective decision-making model based on condition-based maintenance concentrated both on the above two objectives is established. Furthermore, in consideration of the decision maker may prefer providing the final optimal result in the form of discrete intervals instead of a set of points (non-dominated solutions) in real decision-making problem, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on support vector regression is proposed to solve the above multi-objective decision-making model. Finally, a case study regarding a fleet is conducted, with the results proving that the approach efficiently generates outcomes that meet the schedule requirements.

Reliability and criterion-related validity testing (construct) of the Endotracheal Suction Assessment Tool (ESAT©).

PubMed

Davies, Kylie; Bulsara, Max K; Ramelet, Anne-Sylvie; Monterosso, Leanne

2018-05-01

To establish criterion-related construct validity and test-retest reliability for the Endotracheal Suction Assessment Tool© (ESAT©). Endotracheal tube suction performed in children can significantly affect clinical stability. Previously identified clinical indicators for endotracheal tube suction were used as criteria when designing the ESAT©. Content validity was reported previously. The final stages of psychometric testing are presented. Observational testing was used to measure construct validity and determine whether the ESAT© could guide "inexperienced" paediatric intensive care nurses' decision-making regarding endotracheal tube suction. Test-retest reliability of the ESAT© was performed at two time points. The researchers and paediatric intensive care nurse "experts" developed 10 hypothetical clinical scenarios with predetermined endotracheal tube suction outcomes. "Experienced" (n = 12) and "inexperienced" (n = 14) paediatric intensive care nurses were presented with the scenarios and the ESAT© guiding decision-making about whether to perform endotracheal tube suction for each scenario. Outcomes were compared with those predetermined by the "experts" (n = 9). Test-retest reliability of the ESAT© was measured at two consecutive time points (4 weeks apart) with "experienced" and "inexperienced" paediatric intensive care nurses using the same scenarios and tool to guide decision-making. No differences were observed between endotracheal tube suction decisions made by "experts" (n = 9), "inexperienced" (n = 14) and "experienced" (n = 12) nurses confirming the tool's construct validity. No differences were observed between groups for endotracheal tube suction decisions at T1 and T2. Criterion-related construct validity and test-retest reliability of the ESAT© were demonstrated. Further testing is recommended to confirm reliability in the clinical setting with the "inexperienced" nurse to guide decision-making related to endotracheal tube suction. The ESAT© is the first validated tool to systematically guide endotracheal nursing practice for the "inexperienced" nurse. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of decision criterion in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false recognition memory: False memory falls and rises as a function of restriction on criterion setting.

PubMed

Jou, Jerwen; Escamilla, Eric E; Arredondo, Mario L; Pena, Liann; Zuniga, Richard; Perez, Martin; Garcia, Clarissa

2018-02-01

How much of the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false memory is attributable to decision criterion is so far a controversial issue. Previous studies typically used explicit warnings against accepting the critical lure to investigate this issue. The assumption is that if the false memory results from using a liberally biased criterion, it should be greatly reduced or eliminated by an explicit warning against accepting the critical lure. Results showed that warning was generally ineffective. We asked the question of whether subjects can substantially reduce false recognition without being warned when the test forces them to make a distinction between true and false memories. Using a two-alternative forced choice in which criterion plays a relatively smaller role, we showed that subjects could indeed greatly reduce the rate of false recognition. However, when the forced-choice restriction was removed from the two-item choice test, the rate of false recognition rebounded to that of the hit for studied list words, indicating the role of criterion in false recognition.

Supplier Selection Using Weighted Utility Additive Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karande, Prasad; Chakraborty, Shankar

2015-10-01

Supplier selection is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem which mainly involves evaluating a number of available suppliers according to a set of common criteria for choosing the best one to meet the organizational needs. For any manufacturing or service organization, selecting the right upstream suppliers is a key success factor that will significantly reduce purchasing cost, increase downstream customer satisfaction and improve competitive ability. The past researchers have attempted to solve the supplier selection problem employing different MCDM techniques which involve active participation of the decision makers in the decision-making process. This paper deals with the application of weighted utility additive (WUTA) method for solving supplier selection problems. The WUTA method, an extension of utility additive approach, is based on ordinal regression and consists of building a piece-wise linear additive decision model from a preference structure using linear programming (LP). It adopts preference disaggregation principle and addresses the decision-making activities through operational models which need implicit preferences in the form of a preorder of reference alternatives or a subset of these alternatives present in the process. The preferential preorder provided by the decision maker is used as a restriction of a LP problem, which has its own objective function, minimization of the sum of the errors associated with the ranking of each alternative. Based on a given reference ranking of alternatives, one or more additive utility functions are derived. Using these utility functions, the weighted utilities for individual criterion values are combined into an overall weighted utility for a given alternative. It is observed that WUTA method, having a sound mathematical background, can provide accurate ranking to the candidate suppliers and choose the best one to fulfill the organizational requirements. Two real time examples are illustrated to prove its applicability and appropriateness in solving supplier selection problems.

A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.

2011-05-01

Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.

Form and Objective of the Decision Rule in Absolute Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, J. D.

1997-01-01

In several conditions of a line length identification experiment, the subjects' decision making strategies were systematically biased against the responses on the edges of the stimulus range. When the range and number of the stimuli were small, the bias caused the percentage of correct responses to be highest in the center and lowest on the extremes of the range. Two general classes of decision rules that would explain these results are considered. The first class assumes that subjects intend to adopt an optimal decision rule, but systematically misrepresent one or more parameters of the decision making context. The second class assumes that subjects use a different measure of performance than the one assumed by the experimenter: instead of maximizing the chances of a correct response, the subject attempts to minimize the expected size of the response error (a "fidelity criterion"). In a second experiment, extended experience and feedback did not diminish the bias effect, but explicitly penalizing all response errors equally, regardless of their size, did reduce or eliminate it in some subjects. Both results favor the fidelity criterion over the optimal rule.

Experts in offside decision making learn to compensate for their illusory perceptions.

PubMed

Put, Koen; Baldo M, V C; Cravo, André M; Wagemans, Johan; Helsen, Werner F

2013-12-01

In association football, the flash-lag effect appears to be a viable explanation for erroneous offside decision making. Due to this spatiotemporal illusion, assistant referees (ARs) perceive the player who receives the ball ahead of his real position. In this experiment, a laboratory decision-making task was used to demonstrate that international top-class ARs, compared with amateur soccer players, do not have superior perceptual sensitivity. They clearly modify their decision criterion according to the contextual needs and, therefore, show a higher response bias toward not responding to the stimulus, in particular in the most difficult situations. Thus, international ARs show evidence for response-level compensation, resulting in a specific cost (i.e., more misses), which clearly reflects the use of particular (cognitive) strategies. In summary, it appears that experts in offside decision making can be distinguished from novices more on the cognitive or decision-making level than on the perceptual level.

Based on a multi-agent system for multi-scale simulation and application of household's LUCC: a case study for Mengcha village, Mizhi county, Shaanxi province.

PubMed

Chen, Hai; Liang, Xiaoying; Li, Rui

2013-01-01

Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) offer a conceptual approach to include multi-actor decision making into models of land use change. Through the simulation based on the MAS, this paper tries to show the application of MAS in the micro scale LUCC, and reveal the transformation mechanism of difference scale. This paper starts with a description of the context of MAS research. Then, it adopts the Nested Spatial Choice (NSC) method to construct the multi-scale LUCC decision-making model. And a case study for Mengcha village, Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province is reported. Finally, the potentials and drawbacks of the following approach is discussed and concluded. From our design and implementation of the MAS in multi-scale model, a number of observations and conclusions can be drawn on the implementation and future research directions. (1) The use of the LUCC decision-making and multi-scale transformation framework provides, according to us, a more realistic modeling of multi-scale decision making process. (2) By using continuous function, rather than discrete function, to construct the decision-making of the households is more realistic to reflect the effect. (3) In this paper, attempts have been made to give a quantitative analysis to research the household interaction. And it provides the premise and foundation for researching the communication and learning among the households. (4) The scale transformation architecture constructed in this paper helps to accumulate theory and experience for the interaction research between the micro land use decision-making and the macro land use landscape pattern. Our future research work will focus on: (1) how to rational use risk aversion principle, and put the rule on rotation between household parcels into model. (2) Exploring the methods aiming at researching the household decision-making over a long period, it allows us to find the bridge between the long-term LUCC data and the short-term household decision-making. (3) Researching the quantitative method and model, especially the scenario analysis model which may reflect the interaction among different household types.

A new web-based framework development for fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making.

PubMed

Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

2016-01-01

Fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making (FMCGDM) process is usually used when a group of decision-makers faces imprecise data or linguistic variables to solve the problems. However, this process contains many methods that require many time-consuming calculations depending on the number of criteria, alternatives and decision-makers in order to reach the optimal solution. In this study, a web-based FMCGDM framework that offers decision-makers a fast and reliable response service is proposed. The proposed framework includes commonly used tools for multi-criteria decision-making problems such as fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The integration of these methods enables taking advantages of the strengths and complements each method's weakness. Finally, a case study of location selection for landfill waste in Morocco is performed to demonstrate how this framework can facilitate decision-making process. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully accomplish the goal of this study.

Ranking Schools' Academic Performance Using a Fuzzy VIKOR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musani, Suhaina; Aziz Jemain, Abdul

2015-06-01

Determination rank is structuring alternatives in order of priority. It is based on the criteria determined for each alternative involved. Evaluation criteria are performed and then a composite index composed of each alternative for the purpose of arranging in order of preference alternatives. This practice is known as multiple criteria decision making (MCDM). There are several common approaches to MCDM, one of the practice is known as VIKOR (Multi-criteria Optimization and Compromise Solution). The objective of this study is to develop a rational method for school ranking based on linguistic information of a criterion. The school represents an alternative, while the results for a number of subjects as the criterion. The results of the examination for a course, is given according to the student percentage of each grade. Five grades of excellence, honours, average, pass and fail is used to indicate a level of achievement in linguistics. Linguistic variables are transformed to fuzzy numbers to form a composite index of school performance. Results showed that fuzzy set theory can solve the limitations of using MCDM when there is uncertainty problems exist in the data.

Information presentation format moderates the unconscious-thought effect: The role of recollection.

PubMed

Abadie, Marlène; Waroquier, Laurent; Terrier, Patrice

2016-09-01

The unconscious-thought effect occurs when distraction improves complex decision-making. In two experiments using the unconscious-thought paradigm, we investigated the effect of presentation format of decision information (i) on memory for decision-relevant information and (ii) on the quality of decisions made after distraction, conscious deliberation or immediately. We used the process-dissociation procedure to measure recollection and familiarity. The two studies showed that presenting information blocked per criterion led participants to recollect more decision-relevant details compared to a presentation by option. Moreover, a Bayesian meta-analysis of the two studies provided strong evidence that conscious deliberation resulted in better decisions when the information was presented blocked per criterion and substantial evidence that distraction improved decision quality when the information was presented blocked per option. Finally, Study 2 revealed that the recollection of decision-relevant details mediated the effect of presentation format on decision quality in the deliberation condition. This suggests that recollection contributes to conscious deliberation efficacy.

Research of Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique for Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, Dodi; Arisandi, Diki; Usman, Ari; Irwan, Dedy; Rahim, Robbi

2017-12-01

One of the roles of decision support system is that it can assist the decision maker in obtaining the appropriate alternative with the desired criteria, one of the methods that could apply for the decision maker is SMART method with multicriteria decision making. This multi-criteria decision-making theory has meaning where every alternative has criteria and has value and weight, and the author uses this approach to facilitate decision making with a compelling case. The problems discussed in this paper are classified into problems of a variety Multiobjective (multiple goals to be accomplished) and multicriteria (many of the decisive criteria in reaching such decisions).

Equipment Selection by using Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yavuz, Mahmut

2016-10-01

In this study, Fuzzy TOPSIS method was performed for the selection of open pit truck and the optimal solution of the problem was investigated. Data from Turkish Coal Enterprises was used in the application of the method. This paper explains the Fuzzy TOPSIS approaches with group decision-making application in an open pit coal mine in Turkey. An algorithm of the multi-person multi-criteria decision making with fuzzy set approach was applied an equipment selection problem. It was found that Fuzzy TOPSIS with a group decision making is a method that may help decision-makers in solving different decision-making problems in mining.

Eco-Environment Status Evaluation and Change Analysis of Qinghai Based on National Geographic Conditions Census Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, M.; Zhu, M.; Wang, Y.; Xu, C.; Yang, H.

2018-04-01

As the headstream of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Lantsang River, located in the hinterland of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qinghai province is hugely significant for ecosystem as well as for ecological security and sustainable development in China. With the accomplishment of the first national geographic condition census, the frequent monitoring has begun. The classification indicators of the census and monitoring data are highly correlated with Technical Criterion for Ecosystem Status Evaluation released by Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2015. Based on three years' geographic conditions data (2014-2016), Landsat-8 images and thematic data (water resource, pollution emissions, meteorological data, soil erosion, etc.), a multi-years and high-precision eco-environment status evaluation and spatiotemporal change analysis of Qinghai province has been researched on the basis of Technical Criterion for Ecosystem Status Evaluation in this paper. Unlike the evaluation implemented by environmental protection department, the evaluation unit in this paper is town rather than county. The evaluation result shows that the eco-environment status in Qinghai is generally in a fine condition, and has significant regional differences. The eco-environment status evaluation based on national geographic conditions census and monitoring data can improve both the time and space precision. The eco-environment status with high space precise and multi-indices is a key basis for environment protection decision-making.

How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

2014-02-01

In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare.

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

FSAW for REIT selection in multi-criteria decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adawiyah, C. W. Rabiatul; Abdullah, Lazim

2014-07-01

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is profitable investments that gain Malaysian investors' attention. It can be a great way to increase our net worth. Due to the existence of many property trusts, investors face difficulties in determining the best property trusts to invest their wealth. This high risk investment makes investors cautious in choosing the platform for investing their wealth. In real world situation, the data collected are inexact and ambiguous. Investment reminds investors to beware because it carries risk no matter low or high. There are lots of things that investors need to consider before invest in any property or trust. The aim of this paper is to identify the best criteria of REIT and determine the best property trust that helps investors gain profits in their investment. Four experts in areas of investment are randomly selected to assess and provide information regarding to Malaysia's REITs. Decision makers were asked to rate the criteria for every alternatives by using the linguistic variables. The five linguistic variables were used as input data to test fuzzy simple additive weighting (FSAW) model. From the study conducted, transparency indicates the necessary criteria for each property trust. This decision making model used to be possible to test FSAW model in investment sector. The decision makers also asked to evaluate the alternatives based on the linguistic ranking variables to rank the alternatives and the result shows the best alternative in this case is Amanah Harta Tanah PNB. The ranking signifies the impact of the criterion and alternatives to investors especially REITs investors.

Brain signals do not demonstrate unconscious decision making: an interpretation based on graded conscious awareness.

PubMed

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2014-02-01

Neuroscientific studies have shown that brain activity correlated with a decision to move can be observed before a person reports being consciously aware of having made that decision (e.g., Libet, Gleason, Wright, & Pearl, 1983; Soon, Brass, Heinze, & Haynes, 2008). Given that a later event (i.e., conscious awareness) cannot cause an earlier one (i.e., decision-related brain activity), such results have been interpreted as evidence that decisions are made unconsciously (e.g., Libet, 1985). We argue that this interpretation depends upon an all-or-none view of consciousness, and we offer an alternative interpretation of the early decision-related brain activity based on models in which conscious awareness of the decision to move develops gradually up to the level of a reporting criterion. Under this interpretation, the early brain activity reflects sub-criterion levels of awareness rather than complete absence of awareness and thus does not suggest that decisions are made unconsciously. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A two-phased fuzzy decision making procedure for IT supplier selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shohaimay, Fairuz; Ramli, Nazirah; Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah

2013-09-01

In many studies on fuzzy decision making, linguistic terms are usually represented by corresponding fixed triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. However, the fixed fuzzy numbers used in decision making process may not explain the actual respondents' opinions. Hence, a two-phased fuzzy decision making procedure is proposed. First, triangular fuzzy numbers were built based on respondents' opinions on the appropriate range (0-100) for each seven-scale linguistic terms. Then, the fuzzy numbers were integrated into fuzzy decision making model. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated in a case study of supplier selection in Information Technology (IT) department. The results produced via the developed fuzzy numbers were consistent with the results obtained using fixed fuzzy numbers. However, with different set of fuzzy numbers based on respondents, there is a difference in the ranking of suppliers based on criterion X1 (background of supplier). Hopefully the proposed model which incorporates fuzzy numbers based on respondents will provide a more significant meaning towards future decision making.

The effect of uncertainties in distance-based ranking methods for multi-criteria decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaini, Nor I.; Utyuzhnikov, Sergei V.

2017-08-01

Data in the multi-criteria decision making are often imprecise and changeable. Therefore, it is important to carry out sensitivity analysis test for the multi-criteria decision making problem. The paper aims to present a sensitivity analysis for some ranking techniques based on the distance measures in multi-criteria decision making. Two types of uncertainties are considered for the sensitivity analysis test. The first uncertainty is related to the input data, while the second uncertainty is towards the Decision Maker preferences (weights). The ranking techniques considered in this study are TOPSIS, the relative distance and trade-off ranking methods. TOPSIS and the relative distance method measure a distance from an alternative to the ideal and antiideal solutions. In turn, the trade-off ranking calculates a distance of an alternative to the extreme solutions and other alternatives. Several test cases are considered to study the performance of each ranking technique in both types of uncertainties.

Assessing English Language Learner Content Knowledge in the Mainstream Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark-Gareca, Beth

2013-01-01

In K-12 environments in the US, classroom tests are a central means by which teachers assess English Language Learner (ELL) content knowledge. Performance on routine classroom assessments is often a contributing criterion for school based decision-making and can affect decisions relating to academic tracking, retention, and access to academic…

A Comparison of Decision-Making Methods for Criterion-Referenced Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haladyna, Tom; Roid, Gale

The problems associated with misclassifying students when pass-fail decisions are based on test scores are discussed. One protection against misclassification is to set a confidence interval around the cutting score. Those whose scores fall above the interval are passed; those whose scores fall below the interval are failed; and those whose scores…

fMRI evidence for a dual process account of the speed-accuracy tradeoff in decision-making.

PubMed

Ivanoff, Jason; Branning, Philip; Marois, René

2008-07-09

The speed and accuracy of decision-making have a well-known trading relationship: hasty decisions are more prone to errors while careful, accurate judgments take more time. Despite the pervasiveness of this speed-accuracy trade-off (SAT) in decision-making, its neural basis is still unknown. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) we show that emphasizing the speed of a perceptual decision at the expense of its accuracy lowers the amount of evidence-related activity in lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, this speed-accuracy difference in lateral prefrontal cortex activity correlates with the speed-accuracy difference in the decision criterion metric of signal detection theory. We also show that the same instructions increase baseline activity in a dorso-medial cortical area involved in the internal generation of actions. These findings suggest that the SAT is neurally implemented by modulating not only the amount of externally-derived sensory evidence used to make a decision, but also the internal urge to make a response. We propose that these processes combine to control the temporal dynamics of the speed-accuracy trade-off in decision-making.

Prioritizing Project Risks Using AHP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thibadeau, Barbara M

2007-01-01

This essay introduces the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a method by which to rank project risks, in terms of importance as well as likelihood. AHP is way to handle quantifiable and/or intangible criteria in the decision making process. It is a multi-objective multi-criteria decision-making approach that is based on the idea of pair-wise comparisons of alternatives with respect to a given criterion (e.g., which alternative, A or B, is preferred and by how much more is it preferred) or with respect to an objective (e.g., which is more important, A or B, and by how much more is itmore » important). This approach was pioneered by Thomas Saaty in the late 1970's. It has been suggested that a successful project is one that successfully manages risk and that project management is the management of uncertainty. Risk management relies on the quantification of uncertainty which, in turn, is predicated upon the accuracy of probabilistic approaches (in terms of likelihood as well as magnitude). In many cases, the appropriate probability distribution (or probability value) is unknown. And, researchers have shown that probability values are not made very accurately, that the use of verbal expressions is not a suitable alternative, that there is great variability in the use and interpretation of these values and that there is a great reluctance to assign them in the first place. Data from an ongoing project is used to show that AHP can be used to obtain these values, thus overcoming some of the problems associated with the direct assignment of discrete probability values. A novel method by which to calculate the consistency of the data is introduced. The AHP approach is easily implemented and, typically, offers results that are consistent with the decision maker's intuition.« less

Working memory and decision processes in visual area v4.

PubMed

Hayden, Benjamin Y; Gallant, Jack L

2013-01-01

Recognizing and responding to a remembered stimulus requires the coordination of perception, working memory, and decision-making. To investigate the role of visual cortex in these processes, we recorded responses of single V4 neurons during performance of a delayed match-to-sample task that incorporates rapid serial visual presentation of natural images. We found that neuronal activity during the delay period after the cue but before the images depends on the identity of the remembered image and that this change persists while distractors appear. This persistent response modulation has been identified as a diagnostic criterion for putative working memory signals; our data thus suggest that working memory may involve reactivation of sensory neurons. When the remembered image reappears in the neuron's receptive field, visually evoked responses are enhanced; this match enhancement is a diagnostic criterion for decision. One model that predicts these data is the matched filter hypothesis, which holds that during search V4 neurons change their tuning so as to match the remembered cue, and thus become detectors for that image. More generally, these results suggest that V4 neurons participate in the perceptual, working memory, and decision processes that are needed to perform memory-guided decision-making.

Note on Professor Sizer's Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balderston, Frederick E.

1979-01-01

Issues suggested by John Sizer's paper, an overview of the assessment of institutional performance, include: the efficient-frontier approach, multiple-criterion decision-making models, performance analysis approached as path analysis, and assessment of academic quality. (JMD)

Use of Information Technology Tools in Source Selection Decision Making: A Study on USAF’s KC-X Tanker Replacement Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

The most common outranking methods are the preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation ( PROMETHEE ) and the elimination and...Brans and Ph. Vincke, “A Preference Ranking Organization Method: (The PROMETHEE Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making),” Management Science 31... PROMETHEE ). This method needs a preference function for each criterion to compute the degree of preference.72 “The credibility of the outranking

A Multi Criteria Group Decision-Making Model for Teacher Evaluation in Higher Education Based on Cloud Model and Decision Tree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Ting-Cheng; Wang, Hui

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a cloud multi-criteria group decision-making model for teacher evaluation in higher education which is involving subjectivity, imprecision and fuzziness. First, selecting the appropriate evaluation index depending on the evaluation objectives, indicating a clear structural relationship between the evaluation index and…

Financial decision-making abilities and financial exploitation in older African Americans: Preliminary validity evidence for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS).

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Ficker, Lisa J; Rahman-Filipiak, Annalise

2016-01-01

This study examines preliminary evidence for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS), a new person-centered approach to assessing capacity to make financial decisions, and its relationship to self-reported cases of financial exploitation in 69 older African Americans. More than one third of individuals reporting financial exploitation also had questionable decisional abilities. Overall, decisional ability score and current decision total were significantly associated with cognitive screening test and financial ability scores, demonstrating good criterion validity. Study findings suggest that impaired decisional abilities may render older adults more vulnerable to financial exploitation, and that the LFDRS is a valid tool.

A Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision-Making and Conflict Resolution (abstract)

EPA Science Inventory

This contribution describes the implementation of the conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) metric to create a general multi-stakeholder decision-making framework. It is observed that stakeholder dissatisfactions (distance to their individual ideal solutions) can be interpreted as ran...

A Decision Model for Steady-State Choice in Concurrent Chains

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christensen, Darren R.; Grace, Randolph C.

2010-01-01

Grace and McLean (2006) proposed a decision model for acquisition of choice in concurrent chains which assumes that after reinforcement in a terminal link, subjects make a discrimination whether the preceding reinforcer delay was short or long relative to a criterion. Their model was subsequently extended by Christensen and Grace (2008, 2009a,…

Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

2014-09-01

The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

Network-centric decision architecture for financial or 1/f data models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Massey, Stoney; Case, Carl T.; Songy, Claude G.

2002-12-01

This paper presents a decision architecture algorithm for training neural equation based networks to make autonomous multi-goal oriented, multi-class decisions. These architectures make decisions based on their individual goals and draw from the same network centric feature set. Traditionally, these architectures are comprised of neural networks that offer marginal performance due to lack of convergence of the training set. We present an approach for autonomously extracting sample points as I/O exemplars for generation of multi-branch, multi-node decision architectures populated by adaptively derived neural equations. To test the robustness of this architecture, open source data sets in the form of financial time series were used, requiring a three-class decision space analogous to the lethal, non-lethal, and clutter discrimination problem. This algorithm and the results of its application are presented here.

Approach to numerical safety guidelines based on a core melt criterion. [PWR; BWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

1982-01-01

A plausible approach is proposed for translating a single level criterion to a set of numerical guidelines. The criterion for core melt probability is used to set numerical guidelines for various core melt sequences, systems and component unavailabilities. These guidelines can be used as a means for making decisions regarding the necessity for replacing a component or improving part of a safety system. This approach is applied to estimate a set of numerical guidelines for various sequences of core melts that are analyzed in Reactor Safety Study for the Peach Bottom Nuclear Power Plant.

Who decides? Decision making and Fertility Preservation in Teens with Cancer: A Review of the literature

PubMed Central

Quinn, Gwendolyn P.; Murphy, Devin; Knapp, Caprice; Stearsman, Daniel K.; Bradley-Klug, Kathy L.; Sawczyn, Kelly; Clayman, Marla L.

2011-01-01

Purpose The knowledge that cancer treatment may impair fertility in pediatric populations is an emerging aspect of quality of life in this population. However, decision making and use of fertility preservation among adolescent cancer patients and their families has not been well studied. This review summarizes the available literature on aspects of decision making and fertility preservation in adolescent cancer patients. Methods An electronic search was performed to identify peer reviewed studies published between 1999-2009 using key MESH terms and inclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria limited eligible studies to those that focused on adolescent decision-making in cancer treatment or fertility preservation, fertility concerns in pediatric oncology, capacity for decision-making, and health decision making in pediatrics. Studies were excluded that did not meet at least one of these criterion. Results A total of 29 articles were reviewed and summarized. Three categories of results were seen: a focus on adolescent decision making in oncology, decision making in chronic illness, and decision making in cancer related infertility and preservation. Conclusion The majority of studies showed adolescents have a strong desire to participate in decisions about their cancer treatment and many have concerns regarding their future fertility although barriers often prevented these discussions. More research is needed to explore the role of teens and parents in decisions about fertility in relation to cancer treatment. PMID:21939862

On Decision-Making Among Multiple Rule-Bases in Fuzzy Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tunstel, Edward; Jamshidi, Mo

1997-01-01

Intelligent control of complex multi-variable systems can be a challenge for single fuzzy rule-based controllers. This class of problems cam often be managed with less difficulty by distributing intelligent decision-making amongst a collection of rule-bases. Such an approach requires that a mechanism be chosen to ensure goal-oriented interaction between the multiple rule-bases. In this paper, a hierarchical rule-based approach is described. Decision-making mechanisms based on generalized concepts from single-rule-based fuzzy control are described. Finally, the effects of different aggregation operators on multi-rule-base decision-making are examined in a navigation control problem for mobile robots.

Multi-objective decision-making under uncertainty: Fuzzy logic methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.

1995-01-01

Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.

Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.

PubMed

Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W

2013-01-01

Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Prioritising Emerging or Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases Associated with Climate Change in Canada

PubMed Central

Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software ‘M-MACBETH’. The tools were trialed on nine ‘test’ pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued. PMID:23950868

BCS or Just BS: How College Football Could Crown the Wrong National Champion? Just Do the Math--Correctly!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teasley, C.E. Wynn; Hornyak, Martin

2010-01-01

The 2009 college football season is here, but there has been a continuing controversy swirling over how the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) selects its national champion. College football uses a multi-criterion decision matrix (MCDM) evaluation technique to determine which two teams will play for the national championship. We analyzed the BCS…

Multi-criteria decision making--an approach to setting priorities in health care.

PubMed

Nobre, F F; Trotta, L T; Gomes, L F

1999-12-15

The objective of this paper is to present a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach to support public health decision making that takes into consideration the fuzziness of the decision goals and the behavioural aspect of the decision maker. The approach is used to analyse the process of health technology procurement in a University Hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The method, known as TODIM, relies on evaluating alternatives with a set of decision criteria assessed using an ordinal scale. Fuzziness in generating criteria scores and weights or conflicts caused by dealing with different viewpoints of a group of decision makers (DMs) are solved using fuzzy set aggregation rules. The results suggested that MCDM models, incorporating fuzzy set approaches, should form a set of tools for public health decision making analysis, particularly when there are polarized opinions and conflicting objectives from the DM group. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Discriminating talent-identified junior Australian football players using a video decision-making task.

PubMed

Woods, Carl T; Raynor, Annette J; Bruce, Lyndell; McDonald, Zane

2016-01-01

This study examined if a video decision-making task could discriminate talent-identified junior Australian football players from their non-talent-identified counterparts. Participants were recruited from the 2013 under 18 (U18) West Australian Football League competition and classified into two groups: talent-identified (State U18 Academy representatives; n = 25; 17.8 ± 0.5 years) and non-talent-identified (non-State U18 Academy selection; n = 25; 17.3 ± 0.6 years). Participants completed a video decision-making task consisting of 26 clips sourced from the Australian Football League game-day footage, recording responses on a sheet provided. A score of "1" was given for correct and "0" for incorrect responses, with the participants total score used as the criterion value. One-way analysis of variance tested the main effect of "status" on the task criterion, whilst a bootstrapped receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminant ability of the task. An area under the curve (AUC) of 1 (100%) represented perfect discrimination. Between-group differences were evident (P < 0.05) and the ROC curve was maximised with a score of 15.5/26 (60%) (AUC = 89.0%), correctly classifying 92% and 76% of the talent-identified and non-talent-identified participants, respectively. Future research should investigate the mechanisms leading to the superior decision-making observed in the talent-identified group.

The application of a multi-dimensional assessment approach to talent identification in Australian football.

PubMed

Woods, Carl T; Raynor, Annette J; Bruce, Lyndell; McDonald, Zane; Robertson, Sam

2016-07-01

This study investigated whether a multi-dimensional assessment could assist with talent identification in junior Australian football (AF). Participants were recruited from an elite under 18 (U18) AF competition and classified into two groups; talent identified (State U18 Academy representatives; n = 42; 17.6 ± 0.4 y) and non-talent identified (non-State U18 Academy representatives; n = 42; 17.4 ± 0.5 y). Both groups completed a multi-dimensional assessment, which consisted of physical (standing height, dynamic vertical jump height and 20 m multistage fitness test), technical (kicking and handballing tests) and perceptual-cognitive (video decision-making task) performance outcome tests. A multivariate analysis of variance tested the main effect of status on the test criterions, whilst a receiver operating characteristic curve assessed the discrimination provided from the full assessment. The talent identified players outperformed their non-talent identified peers in each test (P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve reflected near perfect discrimination (AUC = 95.4%), correctly classifying 95% and 86% of the talent identified and non-talent identified participants, respectively. When compared to single assessment approaches, this multi-dimensional assessment reflects a more comprehensive means of talent identification in AF. This study further highlights the importance of assessing multi-dimensional performance qualities when identifying talented team sports.

[Quality of life or life expectancy? Criteria and sources of information in the decision-making of patients undergoing aortic valve surgery].

PubMed

Schmied, Wolfram; Barnick, Saskia; Heimann, Dierk; Schäfers, Hans-Joachim; Köllner, Volker

2015-01-01

Physicians are expected to involve patients adequately in the decision-making process prior to surgery. To this end, it is essential to have knowledge about the potential reasons for such a decision. In this study we investigated which information sources and decision criteria are important to patients prior to aortic valve surgery. A consecutive sample of 468 patients (70.1%m, aged 66.9±14.2 years) was examined 2 years after aortic valve replacement or reconstruction with a self-developed questionnaire. Preoperative discussion with a cardiologist or a cardiac surgeon was the information source patients used most frequently and felt to be the most helpful. The most important decision criterion was quality of life, followed by life expectancy and likelihood of reoperation. Two years postoperatively, 97.3% of the patients were satisfied with their decision. Preoperative counseling by a physician plays an essential role in the decision-making process prior to cardiac surgery. Patients want to be involved in decision-making, though they do not want to bear the full responsibility.

Exploring the perspectives and preferences for HTA across German healthcare stakeholders using a multi-criteria assessment of a pulmonary heart sensor as a case study.

PubMed

Wahlster, Philip; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Schaller, Sandra; Kriza, Christine; Kolominsky-Rabas, Peter

2015-04-28

Health technology assessment and healthcare decision-making are based on multiple criteria and evidence, and heterogeneous opinions of participating stakeholders. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a potential framework to systematize this process and take different perspectives into account. The objectives of this study were to explore perspectives and preferences across German stakeholders when appraising healthcare interventions, using multi-criteria assessment of a heart pulmonary sensor as a case study. An online survey of 100 German healthcare stakeholders was conducted using a comprehensive MCDA framework (EVIDEM V2.2). Participants were asked to provide i) relative weights for each criterion of the framework; ii) performance scores for a health pulmonary sensor, based on available data synthesized for each criterion; and iii) qualitative feedback on the consideration of contextual criteria. Normalized weights and scores were combined using a linear model to calculate a value estimate across different stakeholders. Differences across types of stakeholders were explored. The survey was completed by 54 participants. The most important criteria were efficacy, patient reported outcomes, disease severity, safety, and quality of evidence (relative weight >0.075 each). Compared to all participants, policymakers gave more weight to budget impact and quality of evidence. The quantitative appraisal of a pulmonary heart sensor revealed differences in scoring performance of this intervention at the criteria level between stakeholder groups. The highest value estimate of the sensor reached 0.68 (on a scale of 0 to 1, 1 representing maximum value) for industry representatives and the lowest value of 0.40 was reported for policymakers, compared to 0.48 for all participants. Participants indicated that most qualitative criteria should be considered and their impact on the quantitative appraisal was captured transparently. The study identified important variations in perspectives across German stakeholders when appraising a healthcare intervention and revealed that MCDA can demonstrate the value of a specified technology for all participating stakeholders. Better understanding of these differences at the criteria level, in particular between policymakers and industry representatives, is important to focus innovation aligned with patient health and healthcare system values and constraints.

Making objective decisions in mechanical engineering problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raicu, A.; Oanta, E.; Sabau, A.

2017-08-01

Decision making process has a great influence in the development of a given project, the goal being to select an optimal choice in a given context. Because of its great importance, the decision making was studied using various science methods, finally being conceived the game theory that is considered the background for the science of logical decision making in various fields. The paper presents some basic ideas regarding the game theory in order to offer the necessary information to understand the multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems in engineering. The solution is to transform the multiple-criteria problem in a one-criterion decision problem, using the notion of utility, together with the weighting sum model or the weighting product model. The weighted importance of the criteria is computed using the so-called Step method applied to a relation of preferences between the criteria. Two relevant examples from engineering are also presented. The future directions of research consist of the use of other types of criteria, the development of computer based instruments for decision making general problems and to conceive a software module based on expert system principles to be included in the Wiki software applications for polymeric materials that are already operational.

Smart Grid as Multi-layer Interacting System for Complex Decision Makings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bompard, Ettore; Han, Bei; Masera, Marcelo; Pons, Enrico

This chapter presents an approach to the analysis of Smart Grids based on a multi-layer representation of their technical, cyber, social and decision-making aspects, as well as the related environmental constraints. In the Smart Grid paradigm, self-interested active customers (prosumers), system operators and market players interact among themselves making use of an extensive cyber infrastructure. In addition, policy decision makers define regulations, incentives and constraints to drive the behavior of the competing operators and prosumers, with the objective of ensuring the global desired performance (e.g. system stability, fair prices). For these reasons, the policy decision making is more complicated than in traditional power systems, and needs proper modeling and simulation tools for assessing "in vitro" and ex-ante the possible impacts of the decisions assumed. In this chapter, we consider the smart grids as multi-layered interacting complex systems. The intricacy of the framework, characterized by several interacting layers, cannot be captured by closed-form mathematical models. Therefore, a new approach using Multi Agent Simulation is described. With case studies we provide some indications about how to develop agent-based simulation tools presenting some preliminary examples.

Highlights from the 17th International Conference on Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Whistler, BC, August 6-11, 2004

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

related to one of the following areas: 1. Group Decision Support Methods; 2. Decision Support Methods; 3. AHP applications; 4. Multi...Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) algorithms; 5. Industrial engineering applications; 6. Behavioural considerations, and 7. Fuzzy MCDM. 3...making. This is especially important when using software like AHP or when constructing questionnaires for SME’s ( see [10] for many examples

Multi-Metric Sustainability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowlin, Shannon; Heimiller, Donna; Macknick, Jordan

2014-12-01

A readily accessible framework that allows for evaluating impacts and comparing tradeoffs among factors in energy policy, expansion planning, and investment decision making is lacking. Recognizing this, the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) funded an exploration of multi-metric sustainability analysis (MMSA) to provide energy decision makers with a means to make more comprehensive comparisons of energy technologies. The resulting MMSA tool lets decision makers simultaneously compare technologies and potential deployment locations.

Decision-making under surprise and uncertainty: Arsenic contamination of water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Mozumder, Pallab; Halim, Nafisa

2018-05-01

With ignorance and potential surprise dominating decision making in water resources, a framework for dealing with such uncertainty is a critical need in hydrology. We operationalize the 'potential surprise' criterion proposed by Shackle, Vickers, and Katzner (SVK) to derive decision rules to manage water resources under uncertainty and ignorance. We apply this framework to managing water supply systems in Bangladesh that face severe, naturally occurring arsenic contamination. The uncertainty involved with arsenic in water supplies makes the application of conventional analysis of decision-making ineffective. Given the uncertainty and surprise involved in such cases, we find that optimal decisions tend to favor actions that avoid irreversible outcomes instead of conventional cost-effective actions. We observe that a diversification of the water supply system also emerges as a robust strategy to avert unintended outcomes of water contamination. Shallow wells had a slight higher optimal level (36%) compare to deep wells and surface treatment which had allocation levels of roughly 32% under each. The approach can be applied in a variety of other cases that involve decision making under uncertainty and surprise, a frequent situation in natural resources management.

Towards a conceptual multi-agent-based framework to simulate the spatial group decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavami, Seyed Morsal; Taleai, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Most spatial problems are multi-actor, multi-issue and multi-phase in nature. In addition to their intrinsic complexity, spatial problems usually involve groups of actors from different organizational and cognitive backgrounds, all of whom participate in a social structure to resolve or reduce the complexity of a given problem. Hence, it is important to study and evaluate what different aspects influence the spatial problem resolution process. Recently, multi-agent systems consisting of groups of separate agent entities all interacting with each other have been put forward as appropriate tools to use to study and resolve such problems. In this study, then in order to generate a better level of understanding regarding the spatial problem group decision-making process, a conceptual multi-agent-based framework is used that represents and specifies all the necessary concepts and entities needed to aid group decision making, based on a simulation of the group decision-making process as well as the relationships that exist among the different concepts involved. The study uses five main influencing entities as concepts in the simulation process: spatial influence, individual-level influence, group-level influence, negotiation influence and group performance measures. Further, it explains the relationship among different concepts in a descriptive rather than explanatory manner. To illustrate the proposed framework, the approval process for an urban land use master plan in Zanjan—a provincial capital in Iran—is simulated using MAS, the results highlighting the effectiveness of applying an MAS-based framework when wishing to study the group decision-making process used to resolve spatial problems.

Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment in Canada: insights from an expert panel discussion.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron; Hoch, Jeffrey; Siebert, Uwe

2015-02-01

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a decision-making tool, has received increasing attention in recent years, notably in the healthcare field. For Canada, it is unclear whether and how MCDA should be incorporated into the existing health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making process. To facilitate debate on improving HTA decision-making in Canada, a workshop was held in conjunction with the 8th World Congress on Health Economics of the International Health Economics Association in Toronto, Canada in July 2011. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential benefits and challenges related to the use of MCDA for HTA decision-making in Canada. This paper summarizes and discusses the recommendations of an expert panel convened at the workshop to discuss opportunities and concerns with reference to the implementation of MCDA in Canada.

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A.; Christensen, Dane T.

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility andmore » reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.« less

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A; Isley, Steven C

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility andmore » reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.« less

Linguistic multi-criteria decision-making with representing semantics by programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wu-E.; Ma, Chao-Qun; Han, Zhi-Qiu

2017-01-01

A linguistic multi-criteria decision-making method is introduced. In this method, a maximising discrimination programming assigns the semanteme values to linguistic variables to represent their semantics. Incomplete preferences from using linguistic information are expressed by the constraints of the model. Such assignment can amplify the difference between alternatives. Thus, the discrimination of the decision model is increased, which facilitates the decision-maker to rank or order the alternatives for making a decision. We also discuss the parameter setting and its influence, and use an application example to illustrate the proposed method. Further, the results with three types of semantic structure highlight the ability of the method in handling different semantic structures.

Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

MIRA is an approach that facilitates stakeholder engagement for collaborative multi-objective decision making. MIRA is designed to facilitate and support an inclusive, explicit, transparent, iterative learning-based decision process.

Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

PubMed

Li, Yan

2017-05-25

The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

Assessing regional environmental quality by integrated use of remote sensing, GIS, and spatial multi-criteria evaluation for prioritization of environmental restoration.

PubMed

Rahman, Md Rejaur; Shi, Z H; Chongfa, Cai

2014-11-01

This study was an attempt to analyse the regional environmental quality with the application of remote sensing, geographical information system, and spatial multiple criteria decision analysis and, to project a quantitative method applicable to identify the status of the regional environment of the study area. Using spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) approach with expert knowledge in this study, an integrated regional environmental quality index (REQI) was computed and classified into five levels of regional environment quality viz. worse, poor, moderate, good, and very good. During the process, a set of spatial criteria were selected (here, 15 criterions) together with the degree of importance of criteria in sustainability of the regional environment. Integrated remote sensing and GIS technique and models were applied to generate the necessary factors (criterions) maps for the SMCE approach. The ranking, along with expected value method, was used to standardize the factors and on the other hand, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was applied for calculating factor weights. The entire process was executed in the integrated land and water information system (ILWIS) software tool that supports SMCE. The analysis showed that the overall regional environmental quality of the area was at moderate level and was partly determined by elevation. Areas under worse and poor quality of environment indicated that the regional environmental status showed decline in these parts of the county. The study also revealed that the human activities, vegetation condition, soil erosion, topography, climate, and soil conditions have serious influence on the regional environment condition of the area. Considering the regional characteristics of environmental quality, priority, and practical needs for environmental restoration, the study area was further regionalized into four priority areas which may serve as base areas of decision making for the recovery, rebuilding, and protection of the environment.

Comparing perceptual and preferential decision making.

PubMed

Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg

2016-06-01

Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.

MICROPIK: A Multiple-Alternatives, Criterion-Referenced Decisioning Model for Evaluating CAI Software and Microcomputer Hardware Against Selected Curriculum Instructional Objectives. Paper and Report Series No. 73.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wholeben, Brent Edward

This report describing the use of operations research techniques to determine which courseware packages or what microcomputer systems best address varied instructional objectives focuses on the MICROPIK model, a highly structured evaluation technique for making such complex instructional decisions. MICROPIK is a multiple alternatives model (MAA)…

Rough Set Based Splitting Criterion for Binary Decision Tree Classifiers

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-26

Alata O. Fernandez-Maloigne C., and Ferrie J.C. (2001). Unsupervised Algorithm for the Segmentation of Three-Dimensional Magnetic Resonance Brain ...instinctual and learned responses in the brain , causing it to make decisions based on patterns in the stimuli. Using this deceptively simple process...2001. [2] Bohn C. (1997). An Incremental Unsupervised Learning Scheme for Function Approximation. In: Proceedings of the 1997 IEEE International

Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support.

PubMed

Laukkanen, Sanna; Kangas, Annika; Kangas, Jyrki

2002-02-01

Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.

Reduction of influence of task difficulty on perceptual decision making by STN deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

Green, Nikos; Bogacz, Rafal; Huebl, Julius; Beyer, Ann-Kristin; Kühn, Andrea A; Heekeren, Hauke R

2013-09-09

Neurocomputational models of optimal decision making ascribe a crucial role-the computation of conflict between choice alternatives-to the subthalamic nucleus (STN). Specifically, these models predict that deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the STN will diminish the influence of decision conflict on decision making. In this work, patients with Parkinson's disease judged the direction of motion in random dot stimuli while ON and OFF DBS. To induce decision conflict, we varied the task difficulty (motion coherence), leading to increased reaction time (RT) in trials with greater task difficulty in healthy subjects. Results indicate that DBS significantly influences performance for perceptual decisions under high decision conflict. RT increased substantially OFF DBS as the task became more difficult, and a diffusion model best accounted for behavioral data. In contrast, ON DBS, the influence of task difficulty on RT was significantly reduced and a race model best accounted for the observed data. Individual data fits of evidence accumulation models demonstrate different information processing under distinct DBS states. Furthermore, ON DBS, speed-accuracy tradeoffs affected the magnitude of decision criterion adjustment significantly less compared to OFF DBS. Together, these findings suggest a crucial role for the STN in adjusting decision making during high-conflict trials in perceptual decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis respons to the implementation of nuclear installations safety culture using AHP-TOPSIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Situmorang, J.; Kuntoro, I.; Santoso, S.; Subekti, M.; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

An analysis of responses to the implementation of nuclear installations safety culture has been done using AHP (Analitic Hierarchy Process) - TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution). Safety culture is considered as collective commitments of the decision-making level, management level, and individual level. Thus each level will provide a subjective perspective as an alternative approach to implementation. Furthermore safety culture is considered by the statement of five characteristics which in more detail form consist of 37 attributes, and therefore can be expressed as multi-attribute state. Those characteristics and or attributes will be a criterion and its value is difficult to determine. Those criteria of course, will determine and strongly influence the implementation of the corresponding safety culture. To determine the pattern and magnitude of the influence is done by using a TOPSIS that is based on decision matrix approach and is composed of alternatives and criteria. The weight of each criterion is determined by AHP technique. The data used are data collected through questionnaires at the workshop on safety and health in 2015. .Reliability test of data gives Cronbah Alpha value of 95.5% which according to the criteria is stated reliable. Validity test using bivariate correlation analysis technique between each attribute give Pearson correlation for all attribute is significant at level 0,01. Using confirmatory factor analysis gives Kaise-Meyer-Olkin of sampling Adequacy (KMO) is 0.719 and it is greater than the acceptance criterion 0.5 as well as the 0.000 significance level much smaller than 0.05 and stated that further analysis could be performed. As a result of the analysis it is found that responses from the level of decision maker (second echelon) dominate the best order preference rank to be the best solution in strengthening the nuclear installation safety culture, except for the first characteristics, safety is a clearly recognized value. The rank of preference order is obtained sequentially according to the level of policy maker, management and individual or staff.

Multi-criteria GIS-based siting of an incineration plant for municipal solid waste.

PubMed

Tavares, Gilberto; Zsigraiová, Zdena; Semiao, Viriato

2011-01-01

Siting a municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration plant requires a comprehensive evaluation to identify the best available location(s) that can simultaneously meet the requirements of regulations and minimise economic, environmental, health, and social costs. A spatial multi-criteria evaluation methodology is presented to assess land suitability for a plant siting and applied to Santiago Island of Cape Verde. It combines the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to estimate the selected evaluation criteria weights with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial data analysis that avoids the subjectivity of the judgements of decision makers in establishing the influences between some criteria or clusters of criteria. An innovative feature of the method lies in incorporating the environmental impact assessment of the plant operation as a criterion in the decision-making process itself rather than as an a posteriori assessment. Moreover, a two-scale approach is considered. At a global scale an initial screening identifies inter-municipal zones satisfying the decisive requirements (socio-economic, technical and environmental issues, with weights respectively, of 48%, 41% and 11%). A detailed suitability ranking inside the previously identified zones is then performed at a local scale in two phases and includes environmental assessment of the plant operation. Those zones are ranked by combining the non-environmental feasibility of Phase 1 (with a weight of 75%) with the environmental assessment of the plant operation impact of Phase 2 (with a weight of 25%). The reliability and robustness of the presented methodology as a decision supporting tool is assessed through a sensitivity analysis. The results proved the system effectiveness in the ranking process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

PubMed

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.

Option generation in decision making: ideation beyond memory retrieval

PubMed Central

Del Missier, Fabio; Visentini, Mimì; Mäntylä, Timo

2015-01-01

According to prescriptive decision theories, the generation of options for choice is a central aspect of decision making. A too narrow representation of the problem may indeed limit the opportunity to evaluate promising options. However, despite the theoretical and applied significance of this topic, the cognitive processes underlying option generation are still unclear. In particular, while a cued recall account of option generation emphasizes the role of memory and executive control, other theoretical proposals stress the importance of ideation processes based on various search and thinking processes. Unfortunately, relevant behavioral evidence on the cognitive processes underlying option generation is scattered and inconclusive. In order to reach a better understanding, we carried out an individual-differences study employing a wide array of cognitive predictors, including measures of episodic memory, semantic memory, cognitive control, and ideation fluency. The criterion tasks consisted of three different poorly-structured decision-making scenarios, and the participants were asked to generate options to solve these problems. The main criterion variable of the study was the number of valid options generated, but also the diversity and the quality of generated options were examined. The results showed that option generation fluency and diversity in the context of ill-structured decision making are supported by ideation ability even after taking into account the effects of individual differences in several other aspects of cognitive functioning. Thus, ideation processes, possibly supported by search and thinking processes, seem to contribute to option generation beyond basic associative memory retrieval. The findings of the study also indicate that generating more options may have multifaceted consequences for choice, increasing the quality of the best option generated but decreasing the mean quality of the options in the generated set. PMID:25657628

Option generation in decision making: ideation beyond memory retrieval.

PubMed

Del Missier, Fabio; Visentini, Mimì; Mäntylä, Timo

2014-01-01

According to prescriptive decision theories, the generation of options for choice is a central aspect of decision making. A too narrow representation of the problem may indeed limit the opportunity to evaluate promising options. However, despite the theoretical and applied significance of this topic, the cognitive processes underlying option generation are still unclear. In particular, while a cued recall account of option generation emphasizes the role of memory and executive control, other theoretical proposals stress the importance of ideation processes based on various search and thinking processes. Unfortunately, relevant behavioral evidence on the cognitive processes underlying option generation is scattered and inconclusive. In order to reach a better understanding, we carried out an individual-differences study employing a wide array of cognitive predictors, including measures of episodic memory, semantic memory, cognitive control, and ideation fluency. The criterion tasks consisted of three different poorly-structured decision-making scenarios, and the participants were asked to generate options to solve these problems. The main criterion variable of the study was the number of valid options generated, but also the diversity and the quality of generated options were examined. The results showed that option generation fluency and diversity in the context of ill-structured decision making are supported by ideation ability even after taking into account the effects of individual differences in several other aspects of cognitive functioning. Thus, ideation processes, possibly supported by search and thinking processes, seem to contribute to option generation beyond basic associative memory retrieval. The findings of the study also indicate that generating more options may have multifaceted consequences for choice, increasing the quality of the best option generated but decreasing the mean quality of the options in the generated set.

Modelling a suitable location for Urban Solid Waste Management using AHP method and GIS -A geospatial approach and MCDM Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, M.; Islam, A.; Hossain, A.; Mustaque, S.

2016-12-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM) is advanced analytical method to evaluate appropriate result or decision from multiple criterion environment. Present time in advanced research, MCDM technique is progressive analytical process to evaluate a logical decision from various conflict. In addition, Present day Geospatial approach (e.g. Remote sensing and GIS) also another advanced technical approach in a research to collect, process and analyze various spatial data at a time. GIS and Remote sensing together with the MCDM technique could be the best platform to solve a complex decision making process. These two latest process combined very effectively used in site selection for solid waste management in urban policy. The most popular MCDM technique is Weighted Linear Method (WLC) where Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is another popular and consistent techniques used in worldwide as dependable decision making. Consequently, the main objective of this study is improving a AHP model as MCDM technique with Geographic Information System (GIS) to select a suitable landfill site for urban solid waste management. Here AHP technique used as a MCDM tool to select the best suitable landfill location for urban solid waste management. To protect the urban environment in a sustainable way municipal waste needs an appropriate landfill site considering environmental, geological, social and technical aspect of the region. A MCDM model generate from five class related which related to environmental, geological, social and technical using AHP method and input the result set in GIS for final model location for urban solid waste management. The final suitable location comes out that 12.2% of the area corresponds to 22.89 km2 considering the total study area. In this study, Keraniganj sub-district of Dhaka district in Bangladesh is consider as study area which is densely populated city currently undergoes an unmanaged waste management system especially the suitable landfill sites for waste dumping site.

The Opportunities and Challenges of the State-owned Exploration Companies Confronting the Prosperous Mineral Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Bangfei; Xie, Hui

The stated-owned exploration companies (SOEC), of state-owned enterprises background, go for profits as well as national and social responsibility. The SOEC play significant roles in commercial mineral exploration by taking advantage of their brands, strong financial backing and operation capability to integrate the capital and technology. Since the disadvantage of backwardness, the SOEC have to deal with multiple problems, such as high costs of mineral rights acquisition, multi-cooperation project management, and the criterions for traditional techniques can not adapt the rapid commercial mineral exploration and evaluation. Under the new situation, the SOEC should be careful to make investment decisions, strengthen project management, introduce venture capital funds, and cooperate with the government and the state-owned exploration institution (SOEI). It's suggested to carry out small-scale assembled explorations to reduce the exploration risks and costs, and to increase the exploration success rate.

Clinical course and recommendations for patients after anterior cruciate ligament injury and subsequent reconstruction

PubMed Central

Gokeler, Alli; Dingenen, Bart; Mouton, Caroline; Seil, Romain

2017-01-01

Almost all athletes who have suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury expect a full return to sports at the same pre-injury level after ACL reconstruction (ACLR). Detailed patient information on the reasonable outcomes of the surgery may be essential to improve patient satisfaction. Pre-operative rehabilitation before ACLR should be considered as an addition to the standard of care to maximise functional outcomes after ACLR. We propose an optimised criterion-based rehabilitation programme within a biopsychosocial framework. No benchmark exists for evaluating return-to-sport (RTS) readiness after ACLR. Therefore, the authors propose a multi-factorial RTS test battery. A combination of both physical and psychological elements should be included in the RTS test battery. There is need for shared decision-making regarding RTS. Cite this article: EFORT Open Rev 2017;2:410-420. DOI: 10.1302/2058-5241.2.170011 PMID:29209517

A model of the human supervisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kok, J. J.; Vanwijk, R. A.

1977-01-01

A general model of the human supervisor's behavior is given. Submechanisms of the model include: the observer/reconstructor; decision-making; and controller. A set of hypothesis is postulated for the relations between the task variables and the parameters of the different submechanisms of the model. Verification of the model hypotheses is considered using variations in the task variables. An approach is suggested for the identification of the model parameters which makes use of a multidimensional error criterion. Each of the elements of this multidimensional criterion corresponds to a certain aspect of the supervisor's behavior, and is directly related to a particular part of the model and its parameters. This approach offers good possibilities for an efficient parameter adjustment procedure.

Decision making in healthy participants on the Iowa Gambling Task: new insights from an operant approach.

PubMed

Bull, Peter N; Tippett, Lynette J; Addis, Donna Rose

2015-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has contributed greatly to the study of affective decision making. However, researchers have observed high inter-study and inter-individual variability in IGT performance in healthy participants, and many are classified as impaired using standard criteria. Additionally, while decision-making deficits are often attributed to atypical sensitivity to reward and/or punishment, the IGT lacks an integrated sensitivity measure. Adopting an operant perspective, two experiments were conducted to explore these issues. In Experiment 1, 50 healthy participants completed a 200-trial version of the IGT which otherwise closely emulated Bechara et al.'s (1999) original computer task. Group data for Trials 1-100 closely replicated Bechara et al.'s original findings of high net scores and preferences for advantageous decks, suggesting that implementations that depart significantly from Bechara's standard IGT contribute to inter-study variability. During Trials 101-200, mean net scores improved significantly and the percentage of participants meeting the "impaired" criterion was halved. An operant-style stability criterion applied to individual data revealed this was likely related to individual differences in learning rate. Experiment 2 used a novel operant card task-the Auckland Card Task (ACT)-to derive quantitative estimates of sensitivity using the generalized matching law. Relative to individuals who mastered the IGT, persistent poor performers on the IGT exhibited significantly lower sensitivity to magnitudes (but not frequencies) of rewards and punishers on the ACT. Overall, our findings demonstrate the utility of operant-style analysis of IGT data and the potential of applying operant concurrent-schedule procedures to the study of human decision making.

Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid for Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Systems - MCEARD

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated sustainability assessment is part of a new paradigm for urban water decision making. Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) is an integrative framework used in urban water sustainability assessment, which has a particular focus on utilising stakeholder participation. Here ...

Concurrent criterion validity of the safe driving behavior measure: a predictor of on-road driving outcomes.

PubMed

Classen, Sherrilene; Wang, Yanning; Winter, Sandra M; Velozo, Craig A; Lanford, Desiree N; Bédard, Michel

2013-01-01

We determined the concurrent criterion validity of the Safe Driving Behavior Measure (SDBM) for on-road outcomes (passing or failing the on-road test as determined by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist) among older drivers and their family members-caregivers. On the basis of ratings from 168 older drivers and 168 family members-caregivers, we calculated receiver operating characteristic curves. The drivers' area under the curve (AUC) was .620 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .514-.725, p = .043). The family members-caregivers' AUC was .726 (95% CI = .622-.829, p ≤ .01). Older drivers' ratings showed statistically significant yet poor concurrent criterion validity, but family members-caregivers' ratings showed good concurrent criterion validity for the criterion on-road driving test. Continuing research with a more representative sample is being pursued to confirm the SDBM's concurrent criterion validity. This screening tool may be useful for generalist practitioners to use in making decisions regarding driving. Copyright © 2013 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

Concurrent Criterion Validity of the Safe Driving Behavior Measure: A Predictor of On-Road Driving Outcomes

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanning; Winter, Sandra M.; Velozo, Craig A.; Lanford, Desiree N.; Bédard, Michel

2013-01-01

We determined the concurrent criterion validity of the Safe Driving Behavior Measure (SDBM) for on-road outcomes (passing or failing the on-road test as determined by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist) among older drivers and their family members–caregivers. On the basis of ratings from 168 older drivers and 168 family members–caregivers, we calculated receiver operating characteristic curves. The drivers’ area under the curve (AUC) was .620 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .514–.725, p = .043). The family members–caregivers’ AUC was .726 (95% CI = .622–.829, p ≤ .01). Older drivers’ ratings showed statistically significant yet poor concurrent criterion validity, but family members–caregivers’ ratings showed good concurrent criterion validity for the criterion on-road driving test. Continuing research with a more representative sample is being pursued to confirm the SDBM’s concurrent criterion validity. This screening tool may be useful for generalist practitioners to use in making decisions regarding driving. PMID:23245789

Operation Exodus: The Massacre of 44 Philippine Police Commandos In Mamasapano Clash

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

strategic thinking, utilizing Game Theory and Multi-Attribute Decision Making; the combination of these two dynamic tools is used to evaluate their...thinking, utilizing Game Theory and Multi-Attribute Decision Making; the combination of these two dynamic tools is used to evaluate their potential...35 A. GAME THEORETIC APPROACH ......................................................36 B. APPLYING GAME THEORY TO OPLAN: EXODUS

'They have to show that they can make it': vitality as a criterion for the prognosis of premature infants.

PubMed

Brinchmann, B S

2000-03-01

In this article, the vitality of premature infants will be described and discussed. Vitality was one of the main factors in a grounded theory study in which the aim was to generate knowledge concerning the ethical decision-making processes with which nurses and physicians are faced in a neonatal unit. Which assessments underlie decisions about whether to start, continue or stop medical treatment of very sick premature babies? A descriptive study design, including 120 hours of field observations and 22 qualitative in-depth interviews with doctors and nurses, was chosen. Strauss and Glaser's comparative method was used to analyse the field observations and interviews. The findings indicate that life-and-death decisions are somewhat ambivalent; experience does not always make them easier. In situations of ambiguity, decisions also seem to be based upon the vitality of the babies concerned.

A safety-based decision making architecture for autonomous systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musto, Joseph C.; Lauderbaugh, L. K.

1991-01-01

Engineering systems designed specifically for space applications often exhibit a high level of autonomy in the control and decision-making architecture. As the level of autonomy increases, more emphasis must be placed on assimilating the safety functions normally executed at the hardware level or by human supervisors into the control architecture of the system. The development of a decision-making structure which utilizes information on system safety is detailed. A quantitative measure of system safety, called the safety self-information, is defined. This measure is analogous to the reliability self-information defined by McInroy and Saridis, but includes weighting of task constraints to provide a measure of both reliability and cost. An example is presented in which the safety self-information is used as a decision criterion in a mobile robot controller. The safety self-information is shown to be consistent with the entropy-based Theory of Intelligent Machines defined by Saridis.

Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Sensitivity of additive aggregation methods to scaling and compensation assumptions

EPA Science Inventory

Analytical methods for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) support the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services for environmental decision making. Many published case studies transform ecosystem service outcomes into a common metric and aggregate the outcomes to set land ...

Deciding Factors: Do Factors beyond Achievement Influence Teachers' Student Placement Decisions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riley, Tasha

2014-01-01

Since teachers' decisions potentially have consequences for learners' future educational and life opportunities, it is imperative to determine the basis of teachers' decision-making in order to determine whether it is discriminatory. This study combines qualitative and quantitative methods towards a multi-school, multi-region study of Australian…

Deciding with the eye: how the visually manipulated accessibility of information in memory influences decision behavior.

PubMed

Platzer, Christine; Bröder, Arndt; Heck, Daniel W

2014-05-01

Decision situations are typically characterized by uncertainty: Individuals do not know the values of different options on a criterion dimension. For example, consumers do not know which is the healthiest of several products. To make a decision, individuals can use information about cues that are probabilistically related to the criterion dimension, such as sugar content or the concentration of natural vitamins. In two experiments, we investigated how the accessibility of cue information in memory affects which decision strategy individuals rely on. The accessibility of cue information was manipulated by means of a newly developed paradigm, the spatial-memory-cueing paradigm, which is based on a combination of the looking-at-nothing phenomenon and the spatial-cueing paradigm. The results indicated that people use different decision strategies, depending on the validity of easily accessible information. If the easily accessible information is valid, people stop information search and decide according to a simple take-the-best heuristic. If, however, information that comes to mind easily has a low predictive validity, people are more likely to integrate all available cue information in a compensatory manner.

Fuzzy decision-making framework for treatment selection based on the combined QUALIFLEX-TODIM method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Pu; Zhang, Hong-yu; Wang, Jian-qiang

2017-10-01

Treatment selection is a multi-criteria decision-making problem of significant concern in the medical field. In this study, a fuzzy decision-making framework is established for treatment selection. The framework mitigates information loss by introducing single-valued trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers to denote evaluation information. Treatment selection has multiple criteria that remarkably exceed the alternatives. In consideration of this characteristic, the framework utilises the idea of the qualitative flexible multiple criteria method. Furthermore, it considers the risk-averse behaviour of a decision maker by employing a concordance index based on TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multi-criteria decision-making) method. A sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the robustness of the framework. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted to compare the framework with several extant methods. Results indicate the advantages of the framework and its better performance compared with the extant methods.

Prediction of Potential Hit Song and Musical Genre Using Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monterola, Christopher; Abundo, Cheryl; Tugaff, Jeric; Venturina, Lorcel Ericka

Accurately quantifying the goodness of music based on the seemingly subjective taste of the public is a multi-million industry. Recording companies can make sound decisions on which songs or artists to prioritize if accurate forecasting is achieved. We extract 56 single-valued musical features (e.g. pitch and tempo) from 380 Original Pilipino Music (OPM) songs (190 are hit songs) released from 2004 to 2006. Based on an effect size criterion which measures a variable's discriminating power, the 20 highest ranked features are fed to a classifier tasked to predict hit songs. We show that regardless of musical genre, a trained feed-forward neural network (NN) can predict potential hit songs with an average accuracy of ΦNN = 81%. The accuracy is about +20% higher than those of standard classifiers such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA, ΦLDA = 61%) and classification and regression trees (CART, ΦCART = 57%). Both LDA and CART are above the proportional chance criterion (PCC, ΦPCC = 50%) but are slightly below the suggested acceptable classifier requirement of 1.25*ΦPCC = 63%. Utilizing a similar procedure, we demonstrate that different genres (ballad, alternative rock or rock) of OPM songs can be automatically classified with near perfect accuracy using LDA or NN but only around 77% using CART.

Criteria for determining a basic health services package. Recent developments in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Stolk, E A; Poley, M J

2005-03-01

The criterion of medical need figures prominently in the Dutch model for reimbursement decisions as well as in many international models for health care priority setting. Nevertheless the conception of need remains too vague and general to be applied successfully in priority decisions. This contribution explores what is wrong with the proposed definitions of medical need and identifies features in the decision-making process that inhibit implementation and usefulness of this criterion. In contrast to what is commonly assumed, the problem is not so much a failure to understand the nature of the medical need criterion and the value judgments involved. Instead the problem seems to be a mismatch between the information regarding medical need and the way in which these concerns are incorporated into policy models. Criteria--medical need, as well as other criteria such as effectiveness and cost-effectiveness--are usually perceived as "hurdles," and each intervention can pass or fail assessment on the basis of each criterion and therefore be included or excluded from public funding. These models fail to understand that choices are not so much between effective and ineffective treatments, or necessary and unnecessary ones. Rather, choices are often between interventions that are somewhat effective and/or needed. Evaluation of such services requires a holistic approach and not a sequence of fail or pass judgments. To improve applicability of criteria that pertain to medical need we therefore suggest further development of these criteria beyond their original binary meaning and propose meaningful ways in which these criteria can be integrated into policy decisions.

Exposure to Unethical Career Events: Effects on Decision-Making, Climate, and Socialization

PubMed Central

Mumford, Michael D.; Waples, Ethan P.; Antes, Alison L.; Murphy, Stephen T.; Connelly, Shane; Brown, Ryan P.; Devenport, Lynn D.

2009-01-01

An implicit goal of many interventions intended to enhance integrity is to minimize peoples’ exposure to unethical events. The intent of the present effort was to examine if exposure to unethical practices in the course of one’s work is related to ethical decision-making. Accordingly, 248 doctoral students in the biological, health, and social sciences were asked to complete a field appropriate measure of ethical decision-making. In addition, they were asked to complete measures examining the perceived acceptability of unethical events and a measure examining perceptions of ethical climate. When these criterion measures were correlated with a measure examining the frequency with which they had been exposed to unethical events in their day-to-day work, it was found that event exposure was strongly related to ethical decision-making, but less strongly related to climate perceptions and perceptions of event acceptability. However, these relationships were moderated by level of experience. The implications of these findings for practices intended to improve ethics are discussed. PMID:19936323

Piéron’s Law and Optimal Behavior in Perceptual Decision-Making

PubMed Central

van Maanen, Leendert; Grasman, Raoul P. P. P.; Forstmann, Birte U.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2012-01-01

Piéron’s Law is a psychophysical regularity in signal detection tasks that states that mean response times decrease as a power function of stimulus intensity. In this article, we extend Piéron’s Law to perceptual two-choice decision-making tasks, and demonstrate that the law holds as the discriminability between two competing choices is manipulated, even though the stimulus intensity remains constant. This result is consistent with predictions from a Bayesian ideal observer model. The model assumes that in order to respond optimally in a two-choice decision-making task, participants continually update the posterior probability of each response alternative, until the probability of one alternative crosses a criterion value. In addition to predictions for two-choice decision-making tasks, we extend the ideal observer model to predict Piéron’s Law in signal detection tasks. We conclude that Piéron’s Law is a general phenomenon that may be caused by optimality constraints. PMID:22232572

Exposure to Unethical Career Events: Effects on Decision-Making, Climate, and Socialization.

PubMed

Mumford, Michael D; Waples, Ethan P; Antes, Alison L; Murphy, Stephen T; Connelly, Shane; Brown, Ryan P; Devenport, Lynn D

2009-09-01

An implicit goal of many interventions intended to enhance integrity is to minimize peoples' exposure to unethical events. The intent of the present effort was to examine if exposure to unethical practices in the course of one's work is related to ethical decision-making. Accordingly, 248 doctoral students in the biological, health, and social sciences were asked to complete a field appropriate measure of ethical decision-making. In addition, they were asked to complete measures examining the perceived acceptability of unethical events and a measure examining perceptions of ethical climate. When these criterion measures were correlated with a measure examining the frequency with which they had been exposed to unethical events in their day-to-day work, it was found that event exposure was strongly related to ethical decision-making, but less strongly related to climate perceptions and perceptions of event acceptability. However, these relationships were moderated by level of experience. The implications of these findings for practices intended to improve ethics are discussed.

A Model of Physical Performance for Occupational Tasks.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hogan, Joyce

This report acknowledges the problems faced by industrial/organizational psychologists who must make personnel decisions involving physically demanding jobs. The scarcity of criterion-related validation studies and the difficulty of generalizing validity are considered, and a model of physical performance that builds on Fleishman's (1984)…

Valuing information for sewer replacement decisions.

PubMed

van Riel, Wouter; Langeveld, Jeroen; Herder, Paulien; Clemens, François

Decision-making for sewer asset management is partially based on intuition and often lacks explicit argumentation, hampering decision transparency and reproducibility. This is not to be preferred in light of public accountability and cost-effectiveness. It is unknown to what extent each decision criterion is appreciated by decision-makers. Further insight into this relative importance improves understanding of decision-making of sewer system managers. As such, a digital questionnaire (response ratio 43%), containing pairwise comparisons between 10 relevant information sources, was sent to all 407 municipalities in the Netherlands to analyse the relative importance and assess whether a shared frame of reasoning is present. Thurstone's law of comparative judgment was used for analysis, combined with several consistency tests. Results show that camera inspections were valued highest, while pipe age was considered least important. The respondents were pretty consistent per individual and also showed consistency as a group. This indicated a common framework of reasoning among the group. The feedback of the group showed, however, the respondents found it difficult to make general comparisons without having a context. This indicates decision-making in practice is more likely to be steered by other mechanisms than purely combining information sources.

Multi-objective decision-making under uncertainty: Fuzzy logic methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.

1994-01-01

Selecting the best option among alternatives is often a difficult process. This process becomes even more difficult when the evaluation criteria are vague or qualitative, and when the objectives vary in importance and scope. Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.

Young adults' decision making surrounding heavy drinking: a multi-staged model of planned behaviour.

PubMed

Northcote, Jeremy

2011-06-01

This paper examines the real life contexts in which decisions surrounding heavy drinking are made by young adults (that is, on occasions when five or more alcoholic drinks are consumed within a few hours). It presents a conceptual model that views such decision making as a multi-faceted and multi-staged process. The mixed method study draws on purposive data gathered through direct observation of eight social networks consisting of 81 young adults aged between 18 and 25 years in Perth, Western Australia, including in-depth interviews with 31 participants. Qualitative and some basic quantitative data were gathered using participant observation and in-depth interviews undertaken over an eighteen month period. Participants explained their decision to engage in heavy drinking as based on a variety of factors. These elements relate to socio-cultural norms and expectancies that are best explained by the theory of planned behaviour. A framework is proposed that characterises heavy drinking as taking place in a multi-staged manner, with young adults having: 1. A generalised orientation to the value of heavy drinking shaped by wider influences and norms; 2. A short-term orientation shaped by situational factors that determines drinking intentions for specific events; and 3. An evaluative orientation shaped by moderating factors. The value of qualitative studies of decision making in real life contexts is advanced to complement the mostly quantitative research that dominates research on alcohol decision making. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-dependent urgency influences speed-accuracy trade-offs in decision-making and movement execution.

PubMed

Thura, David; Cos, Ignasi; Trung, Jessica; Cisek, Paul

2014-12-03

Speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SATs) exist in both decision-making and movement control, and are generally studied separately. However, in natural behavior animals are free to adjust the time invested in deciding and moving so as to maximize their reward rate. Here, we investigate whether shared mechanisms exist for SAT adjustment in both decisions and actions. Two monkeys performed a reach decision task in which they watched 15 tokens jump, one every 200 ms, from a central circle to one of two peripheral targets, and had to guess which target would ultimately receive the majority of tokens. The monkeys could decide at any time, and once a target was reached, the remaining token movements accelerated to either 50 ms ("fast" block) or 150 ms ("slow" block). Decisions were generally earlier and less accurate in fast than slow blocks, and in both blocks, the criterion of accuracy decreased over time within each trial. This could be explained by a simple model in which sensory information is combined with a linearly growing urgency signal. Remarkably, the duration of the reaching movements produced after the decision decreased over time in a similar block-dependent manner as the criterion of accuracy estimated by the model. This suggests that SATs for deciding and acting are influenced by a shared urgency/vigor signal. Consistent with this, we observed that the vigor of saccades performed during the decision process was higher in fast than in slow blocks, suggesting the influence of a context-dependent global arousal. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3416442-13$15.00/0.

Restoring Natural Streamflow Variability by Modifying Multi-purpose Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiau, J.

2010-12-01

Multi-purpose reservoirs typically provide benefits of water supply, hydroelectric power, and flood mitigation. Hydroelectric power generations generally do not consume water. However, temporal distribution of downstream flows is highly changed due to hydro-peaking effects. Associated with offstream diversion of water supplies for municipal, industrial, and agricultural requirements, natural streamflow characteristics of magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change is significantly altered by multi-purpose reservoir operation. Natural flow regime has long been recognized a master factor for ecosystem health and biodiversity. Restoration of altered flow regime caused by multi-purpose reservoir operation is the main objective of this study. This study presents an optimization framework that modifying reservoir operation to seeking balance between human and environmental needs. The methodology presented in this study is applied to the Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, with main purpose of providing stable water-supply and auxiliary purpose of electricity generation and flood-peak attenuation. Reservoir releases are dominated by two decision variables, i.e., duration of water releases for each day and percentage of daily required releases within the duration. The current releasing policy of the Feitsui Reservoir releases water for water-supply and hydropower purposes during 8:00 am to 16:00 pm each day and no environmental flows releases. Although greater power generation is obtained by 100% releases distributed within 8-hour period, severe temporal alteration of streamflow is observed downstream of the reservoir. Modifying reservoir operation by relaxing these two variables and reserve certain ratio of streamflow as environmental flow to maintain downstream natural variability. The optimal reservoir releasing policy is searched by the multi-criterion decision making technique for considering reservoir performance in terms of shortage ratio and power generation and downstream hydrologic alterations in terms of ecological relevant indicators. The results show that the proposed methodology can mitigate hydro-peaking effects on natural variability, while maintains efficient reservoir operation.

Knowledge based system and decision making methodologies in materials selection for aircraft cabin metallic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Pashupati Raj

Materials selection processes have been the most important aspects in product design and development. Knowledge-based system (KBS) and some of the methodologies used in the materials selection for the design of aircraft cabin metallic structures are discussed. Overall aircraft weight reduction means substantially less fuel consumption. Part of the solution to this problem is to find a way to reduce overall weight of metallic structures inside the cabin. Among various methodologies of materials selection using Multi Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) techniques, a few of them are demonstrated with examples and the results are compared with those obtained using Ashby's approach in materials selection. Pre-defined constraint values, mainly mechanical properties, are employed as relevant attributes in the process. Aluminum alloys with high strength-to-weight ratio have been second-to-none in most of the aircraft parts manufacturing. Magnesium alloys that are much lighter in weight as alternatives to the Al-alloys currently in use in the structures are tested using the methodologies and ranked results are compared. Each material attribute considered in the design are categorized as benefit and non-benefit attribute. Using Ashby's approach, material indices that are required to be maximized for an optimum performance are determined, and materials are ranked based on the average of consolidated indices ranking. Ranking results are compared for any disparity among the methodologies.

PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

PubMed

Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

2018-01-01

Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

Evaluating the Impact of Environmentally Friendly Cleaners on System Readiness

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-05

branches of the armed services. USAEC and ATC are currently leading a multi-agency initiative to comprehensively test several cleaning products and...34 Any panel with pitting was given a severity rating of 4. Some cleaning products tested to date have had difficulty meeting the criterion for sandwich...DOD agencies will be able to better preserve readiness, save money and avoid bad decisions by knowing which alternative cleaning products meet its

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

Decision making in healthy participants on the Iowa Gambling Task: new insights from an operant approach

PubMed Central

Bull, Peter N.; Tippett, Lynette J.; Addis, Donna Rose

2015-01-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has contributed greatly to the study of affective decision making. However, researchers have observed high inter-study and inter-individual variability in IGT performance in healthy participants, and many are classified as impaired using standard criteria. Additionally, while decision-making deficits are often attributed to atypical sensitivity to reward and/or punishment, the IGT lacks an integrated sensitivity measure. Adopting an operant perspective, two experiments were conducted to explore these issues. In Experiment 1, 50 healthy participants completed a 200-trial version of the IGT which otherwise closely emulated Bechara et al.'s (1999) original computer task. Group data for Trials 1–100 closely replicated Bechara et al.'s original findings of high net scores and preferences for advantageous decks, suggesting that implementations that depart significantly from Bechara's standard IGT contribute to inter-study variability. During Trials 101–200, mean net scores improved significantly and the percentage of participants meeting the “impaired” criterion was halved. An operant-style stability criterion applied to individual data revealed this was likely related to individual differences in learning rate. Experiment 2 used a novel operant card task—the Auckland Card Task (ACT)—to derive quantitative estimates of sensitivity using the generalized matching law. Relative to individuals who mastered the IGT, persistent poor performers on the IGT exhibited significantly lower sensitivity to magnitudes (but not frequencies) of rewards and punishers on the ACT. Overall, our findings demonstrate the utility of operant-style analysis of IGT data and the potential of applying operant concurrent-schedule procedures to the study of human decision making. PMID:25904884

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 1: Theoretical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

[A multi-measure analysis of the similarity, attraction, and compromise effects in multi-attribute decision making].

PubMed

Tsuzuki, Takashi; Matsui, Hiroshi; Kikuchi, Manabu

2012-12-01

In multi-attribute decision making, the similarity, attraction, and compromise effects warrant specific investigation as they cause violations of principles in rational choice. In order to investigate these three effects simultaneously, we assigned 145 undergraduates to three context effect conditions. We requested them to solve the same 20 hypothetical purchase problems, each of which had three alternatives described along two attributes. We measured their choices, confidence ratings, and response times. We found that manipulating the third alternative had significant context effects for choice proportions and confidence ratings in all three conditions. Furthermore, the attraction effect was the most prominent with regard to choice proportions. In the compromise effect condition, although the choice proportion of the third alternative was high, the confidence rating was low and the response time was long. These results indicate that the relationship between choice proportions and confidence ratings requires further theoretical investigation. They also suggest that a combination of experimental and modeling studies is imperative to reveal the mechanisms underlying the context effects in multi-attribute, multi-alternative decision making.

TACtic- A Multi Behavioral Agent for Trading Agent Competition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosravi, Hassan; Shiri, Mohammad E.; Khosravi, Hamid; Iranmanesh, Ehsan; Davoodi, Alireza

Software agents are increasingly being used to represent humans in online auctions. Such agents have the advantages of being able to systematically monitor a wide variety of auctions and then make rapid decisions about what bids to place in what auctions. They can do this continuously and repetitively without losing concentration. To provide a means of evaluating and comparing (benchmarking) research methods in this area the trading agent competition (TAC) was established. This paper describes the design, of TACtic. Our agent uses multi behavioral techniques at the heart of its decision making to make bidding decisions in the face of uncertainty, to make predictions about the likely outcomes of auctions, and to alter the agent's bidding strategy in response to the prevailing market conditions.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolios, Athanasios; Read, George; Ioannou, Anastasia

2016-01-01

This paper presents an analytical multi-criterion analysis for the prioritisation of risks for the development of tidal energy projects. After a basic identification of risks throughout the project and relevant stakeholders in the UK, classified through a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis, relevant questionnaires provided scores to each risk and corresponding weights for each of the different sectors. Employing an extended technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution as well as the weighted sum method based on the data obtained, the risks identified are ranked based on their criticality, drawing attention of the industry in mitigating the ones scoring higher. Both methods were modified to take averages at different stages of the analysis in order to observe the effects on the final risk ranking. A sensitivity analysis of the results was also carried out with regard to the weighting factors given to the perceived expertise of participants, with different results being obtained whether a linear, squared or square root regression is used. Results of the study show that academics and industry have conflicting opinions with regard to the perception of the most critical risks.

A model for making project funding decisions at the National Cancer Institute.

PubMed

Hall, N G; Hershey, J C; Kessler, L G; Stotts, R C

1992-01-01

This paper describes the development of a model for making project funding decisions at The National Cancer Institute (NCI). The American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST) is a multiple-year, multiple-site demonstration project, aimed at reducing smoking prevalence. The initial request for ASSIST proposals was answered by about twice as many states as could be funded. Scientific peer review of the proposals was the primary criterion used for funding decisions. However, a modified Delphi process made explicit several criteria of secondary importance. A structured questionnaire identified the relative importance of these secondary criteria, some of which we incorporated into a composite preference function. We modeled the proposal funding decision as a zero-one program, and adjusted the preference function and available budget parametrically to generate many suitable outcomes. The actual funding decision, identified by our model, offers significant advantages over manually generated solutions found by experts at NCI.

[Vitality as a criterion of the prognosis in the treatment of premature children?].

PubMed

Brinchmann, B S

1999-08-30

The aim of this study was to generate knowledge about the ethical decision-making processes nurses and physicians are faced with in a neonatal unit. What are the ethical assessments underlying decisions about whether to start, continue or stop medical treatment of very sick premature babies? The theoretical framework was deontological ethics, utilitarianism, Aristotelian virtue ethics theory and an ethics of proximity. A descriptive study design with 120 hours of field observations and 22 qualitative in-depth interviews was chosen. Strauss & Glaser's comparative method, grounded theory, was used to analyze the field observations and interviews. The findings seem to indicate that ethical decisions are somewhat ambivalent. Experience does not always make these decisions easier. There are indications that nurses and physicians use elements from all the different ethical positions. In situations of ambiguity, decisions are also based upon the vitality of the babies.

Coding Theory Information Theory and Radar

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

the design and synthesis of artificial multiagent systems and for the understanding of human decision-making processes. This... altruism that may exist in a complex society. SGT derives its ability to account simultaneously for both group and individual interests from the structure of ...satisficing decision theory as a model of human decision mak- ing. 2 Multi-Attribute Decision Making Many decision problems involve the consideration of

Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall-runoff model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan; Shawn Matott, L.

2015-04-01

GLUE is one of the most commonly used informal methodologies for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Despite the ease-of-use of GLUE, it involves a number of subjective decisions such as the strategy for identifying the behavioural solutions. This study evaluates the impact of behavioural solution identification strategies in GLUE on the quality of model output uncertainty. Moreover, two new strategies are developed to objectively identify behavioural solutions. The first strategy considers Pareto-based ranking of parameter sets, while the second one is based on ranking the parameter sets based on an aggregated criterion. The proposed strategies, as well as the traditional strategies in the literature, are evaluated with respect to reliability (coverage of observations by the envelope of model outcomes) and sharpness (width of the envelope of model outcomes) in different numerical experiments. These experiments include multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation of three rainfall-runoff models with different number of parameters. To demonstrate the importance of behavioural solution identification strategy more appropriately, GLUE is also compared with two other informal multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation methods (Pareto optimization and DDS-AU). The results show that the model output uncertainty varies with the behavioural solution identification strategy, and furthermore, a robust GLUE implementation would require considering multiple behavioural solution identification strategies and choosing the one that generates the desired balance between sharpness and reliability. The proposed objective strategies prove to be the best options in most of the case studies investigated in this research. Implementing such an approach for a high-dimensional calibration problem enables GLUE to generate robust results in comparison with Pareto optimization and DDS-AU.

Comparison of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TODIM methods for landfill location selection.

PubMed

Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

2016-01-01

Landfill location selection is a multi-criteria decision problem and has a strategic importance for many regions. The conventional methods for landfill location selection are insufficient in dealing with the vague or imprecise nature of linguistic assessment. To resolve this problem, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods are proposed. The aim of this paper is to use fuzzy TODIM (the acronym for Interactive and Multi-criteria Decision Making in Portuguese) and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods for the selection of landfill location. The proposed methods have been applied to a landfill location selection problem in the region of Casablanca, Morocco. After determining the criteria affecting the landfill location decisions, fuzzy TODIM and fuzzy AHP methods are applied to the problem and results are presented. The comparisons of these two methods are also discussed.

Fuzzy Logic Approaches to Multi-Objective Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.

1994-01-01

Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.

A Note on the Validity and Reliability of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Benefit-Risk Assessment of Medicines.

PubMed

Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

2015-11-01

The comparative evaluation of benefits and risks is one of the most important tasks during the development, market authorization and post-approval pharmacovigilance of medicinal products. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been recommended to support decision making in the benefit-risk assessment (BRA) of medicines. This paper identifies challenges associated with bias or variability that practitioners may encounter in this field and presents solutions to overcome them. The inclusion of overlapping or preference-complementary criteria, which are frequent violations to the assumptions of this model, should be avoided. For each criterion, a value function translates the original outcomes into preference-related scores. Applying non-linear value functions to criteria defined as the risk of suffering a certain event during the study introduces specific risk behaviours in this prescriptive, rather than descriptive, model and is therefore a questionable practice. MCDA uses weights to compare the importance of the model criteria with each other; during their elicitation a frequent situation where (generally favourable) mild effects are directly traded off against low probabilities of suffering (generally unfavourable) severe effects during the study is known to lead to biased and variable weights and ought to be prevented. The way the outcomes are framed during the elicitation process, positively versus negatively for instance, may also lead to differences in the preference weights, warranting an appropriate justification during each implementation. Finally, extending the weighted-sum MCDA model into a fully inferential tool through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is desirable. However, this task is troublesome and should not ignore that clinical trial endpoints generally are positively correlated.

A multi-valued neutrosophic qualitative flexible approach based on likelihood for multi-criteria decision-making problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Juan-juan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Yang, Wu-E.

2017-01-01

In this paper, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems based on the qualitative flexible multiple criteria method (QUALIFLEX), in which the criteria values are expressed by multi-valued neutrosophic information, are investigated. First, multi-valued neutrosophic sets (MVNSs), which allow the truth-membership function, indeterminacy-membership function and falsity-membership function to have a set of crisp values between zero and one, are introduced. Then the likelihood of multi-valued neutrosophic number (MVNN) preference relations is defined and the corresponding properties are also discussed. Finally, an extended QUALIFLEX approach based on likelihood is explored to solve MCDM problems where the assessments of alternatives are in the form of MVNNs; furthermore an example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method, together with a comparison analysis.

The conceptualisation of health-related quality of life in decision-making by intensive care physicians: A qualitative inquiry.

PubMed

Haines, Dr Kimberley J; Remedios, Louisa; Berney, Sue C; Knott, Dr Cameron; Denehy, Linda

2017-05-01

To explore how intensive care physicians conceptualise and prioritise patient health-related quality of life in their decision-making. General qualitative inquiry using elements of Grounded Theory. Six ICU physicians participated. A large, closed, mixed ICU at a university-affiliated hospital, Australia. Three themes emerged: (1) Multi-dimensionality of HRQoL-HRQoL was described as difficult to understand; the patient was viewed as the best informant. Proxy information on HRQoL and health preferences was used to direct clinical care, despite not always being trusted. (2) Prioritisation of HRQoL within decision-making-this varied across the patient's health care trajectory. Premorbid HRQoL was prioritised when making admission decisions and used to predict future HRQoL. (3) Role of physician in decision-making-the physicians described their role as representing society with peers influencing their decision-making. All participants considered their practice to be similar to their peers, referring to their practice as the "middle of the road". This is a novel finding, emphasising other important influences in high-stakes decision-making. Critical care physicians conceptualised HRQoL as a multi-dimensional subjective construct. Patient (or proxy) voice was integral in establishing patient HRQoL and future health preferences. HRQoL was important in high stakes decision-making including initiating invasive and burdensome therapies or in redirecting therapeutic goals. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Critical Care Nurses Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision making by urgency gating: theory and experimental support.

PubMed

Thura, David; Beauregard-Racine, Julie; Fradet, Charles-William; Cisek, Paul

2012-12-01

It is often suggested that decisions are made when accumulated sensory information reaches a fixed accuracy criterion. This is supported by many studies showing a gradual build up of neural activity to a threshold. However, the proposal that this build up is caused by sensory accumulation is challenged by findings that decisions are based on information from a time window much shorter than the build-up process. Here, we propose that in natural conditions where the environment can suddenly change, the policy that maximizes reward rate is to estimate evidence by accumulating only novel information and then compare the result to a decreasing accuracy criterion. We suggest that the brain approximates this policy by multiplying an estimate of sensory evidence with a motor-related urgency signal and that the latter is primarily responsible for neural activity build up. We support this hypothesis using human behavioral data from a modified random-dot motion task in which motion coherence changes during each trial.

The illusion of handy wins: Problem gambling, chasing, and affective decision-making.

PubMed

Nigro, Giovanna; Ciccarelli, Maria; Cosenza, Marina

2018-01-01

Chasing losses is a behavioral marker and a diagnostic criterion for gambling disorder. It consists in continuing gambling to recoup previous losses. Although chasing has been recognized playing a central role in gambling disorder, research on this topic is relatively scarce, and it remains unclear whether chasing affects decision-making in behavioral tasks in which participants gain or loss some money. Even if several studies found that the more the gambling involvement, the poorer the decision-making, to date no research investigated the role of chasing in decision-making. The study aimed to first investigate the relation between chasing and decision-making in adult gamblers. One hundred and four VLT players were administered the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), a computerized task measuring chasing, and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Correlation analysis showed that the higher the SOGS scores, the higher the propensity to chase, and the poorer the decision-making performance. Regression analysis revealed that chasing propensity and gambling severity predicted IGT performance. Mediation analysis indicated that the association between gambling severity and poor decision-making is mediated by chasing. Gambling severity was assessed by means of a self-report measure. The generalizability of findings is limited, since the study focused only on VLT players. This study provides the first evidence that chasing, along with gambling severity, affects decision-making, at least in behavioral tasks involving money. Since chasers and non-chasers could be two different sub-types of gamblers, treatment protocols should take into account the additive role of chasing in gambling disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making: a critical review using a systematic search strategy.

PubMed

Blumenthal-Barby, J S; Krieger, Heather

2015-05-01

The role of cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making is of growing interest. The purpose of this study was to determine whether studies on cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making are based on actual or hypothetical decisions and are conducted with populations that are representative of those who typically make the medical decision; to categorize the types of cognitive biases and heuristics found and whether they are found in patients or in medical personnel; and to critically review the studies based on standard methodological quality criteria. Data sources were original, peer-reviewed, empirical studies on cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making found in Ovid Medline, PsycINFO, and the CINAHL databases published in 1980-2013. Predefined exclusion criteria were used to identify 213 studies. During data extraction, information was collected on type of bias or heuristic studied, respondent population, decision type, study type (actual or hypothetical), study method, and study conclusion. Of the 213 studies analyzed, 164 (77%) were based on hypothetical vignettes, and 175 (82%) were conducted with representative populations. Nineteen types of cognitive biases and heuristics were found. Only 34% of studies (n = 73) investigated medical personnel, and 68% (n = 145) confirmed the presence of a bias or heuristic. Each methodological quality criterion was satisfied by more than 50% of the studies, except for sample size and validated instruments/questions. Limitations are that existing terms were used to inform search terms, and study inclusion criteria focused strictly on decision making. Most of the studies on biases and heuristics in medical decision making are based on hypothetical vignettes, raising concerns about applicability of these findings to actual decision making. Biases and heuristics have been underinvestigated in medical personnel compared with patients. © The Author(s) 2014.

Let's keep metaphysics out of medical ethics: a critique of Poplawski and Gillett.

PubMed Central

Leavitt, F J

1992-01-01

I argue that the concept of 'longitudinal form', which Poplawski and Gillett have introduced into ethical discussions about embryos and gametes, involves too many metaphysical subtleties to be a useful aid to making moral decisions. I conclude by suggesting a criterion for relevance in medical ethics. PMID:1460650

Achievement Testing in the No Child Left Behind Era: The Arkansas Benchmark

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, John D.; Howerton, D. Lynn; Jones, Craig H.

2008-01-01

The No Child Left Behind Act and the accountability movement in public education caused many states to develop criterion-referenced academic achievement tests. Scores from these tests are often used to make high stakes decisions. Even so, these tests typically do not receive independent psychometric scrutiny. We evaluated the 2005 Arkansas…

Adaptive Criterion Setting in Perceptual Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stuttgen, Maik C.; Yildiz, Ali; Gunturkun, Onur

2011-01-01

Pigeons responded in a perceptual categorization task with six different stimuli (shades of gray), three of which were to be classified as "light" or "dark", respectively. Reinforcement probability for correct responses was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 across blocks of sessions and was unequal for correct light and dark responses. Introduction of a new…

Legitimizing Race as a Decision Making Criterion: Where Are We Going?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, William Bradford

The Assistant Attorney-General for Civil Rights argues that preferential treatment to individuals based on their race cannot be justified under the law. Reynolds reviews the drafting of the Constitution and notes that the Constitution wronged blacks when it accorded them a fractional status of free persons. The doctrine of…

A feedback control model for network flow with multiple pure time delays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Press, J.

1972-01-01

A control model describing a network flow hindered by multiple pure time (or transport) delays is formulated. Feedbacks connect each desired output with a single control sector situated at the origin. The dynamic formulation invokes the use of differential difference equations. This causes the characteristic equation of the model to consist of transcendental functions instead of a common algebraic polynomial. A general graphical criterion is developed to evaluate the stability of such a problem. A digital computer simulation confirms the validity of such criterion. An optimal decision making process with multiple delays is presented.

Collaborative Response and Recovery from a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Animal Health Emergency: Supporting Decision Making in a Complex Environment with Multiple Stakeholders

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

RESPONSE AND RECOVERY FROM A FOOT-AND- MOUTH DISEASE ANIMAL HEALTH EMERGENCY: SUPPORTING DECISION MAKING IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH MULTIPLE...Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE COLLABORATIVE RESPONSE AND RECOVERY FROM A FOOT-AND- MOUTH DISEASE ANIMAL HEALTH EMERGENCY: SUPPORTING DECISION MAKING...200 words ) This thesis recommends ways to support decision makers who must operate within the multi-stakeholder complex situation of response and

A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach for Estimating the Number of Clusters in a Data Set

PubMed Central

Peng, Yi; Zhang, Yong; Kou, Gang; Shi, Yong

2012-01-01

Determining the number of clusters in a data set is an essential yet difficult step in cluster analysis. Since this task involves more than one criterion, it can be modeled as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. This paper proposes a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM)-based approach to estimate the number of clusters for a given data set. In this approach, MCDM methods consider different numbers of clusters as alternatives and the outputs of any clustering algorithm on validity measures as criteria. The proposed method is examined by an experimental study using three MCDM methods, the well-known clustering algorithm–k-means, ten relative measures, and fifteen public-domain UCI machine learning data sets. The results show that MCDM methods work fairly well in estimating the number of clusters in the data and outperform the ten relative measures considered in the study. PMID:22870181

An EGR performance evaluation and decision-making approach based on grey theory and grey entropy analysis

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is one of the main methods of reducing NOX emissions and has been widely used in marine diesel engines. This paper proposes an optimized comprehensive assessment method based on multi-objective grey situation decision theory, grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis to evaluate the performance and optimize rate determination of EGR, which currently lack clear theoretical guidance. First, multi-objective grey situation decision theory is used to establish the initial decision-making model according to the main EGR parameters. The optimal compromise between diesel engine combustion and emission performance is transformed into a decision-making target weight problem. After establishing the initial model and considering the characteristics of EGR under different conditions, an optimized target weight algorithm based on grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis is applied to generate the comprehensive evaluation and decision-making model. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied to a TBD234V12 turbocharged diesel engine, and the results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method for providing theoretical support and a reference for further EGR optimization. PMID:29377956

An EGR performance evaluation and decision-making approach based on grey theory and grey entropy analysis.

PubMed

Zu, Xianghuan; Yang, Chuanlei; Wang, Hechun; Wang, Yinyan

2018-01-01

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is one of the main methods of reducing NOX emissions and has been widely used in marine diesel engines. This paper proposes an optimized comprehensive assessment method based on multi-objective grey situation decision theory, grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis to evaluate the performance and optimize rate determination of EGR, which currently lack clear theoretical guidance. First, multi-objective grey situation decision theory is used to establish the initial decision-making model according to the main EGR parameters. The optimal compromise between diesel engine combustion and emission performance is transformed into a decision-making target weight problem. After establishing the initial model and considering the characteristics of EGR under different conditions, an optimized target weight algorithm based on grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis is applied to generate the comprehensive evaluation and decision-making model. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied to a TBD234V12 turbocharged diesel engine, and the results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method for providing theoretical support and a reference for further EGR optimization.

Multi-alternative decision-making with non-stationary inputs.

PubMed

Nunes, Luana F; Gurney, Kevin

2016-08-01

One of the most widely implemented models for multi-alternative decision-making is the multihypothesis sequential probability ratio test (MSPRT). It is asymptotically optimal, straightforward to implement, and has found application in modelling biological decision-making. However, the MSPRT is limited in application to discrete ('trial-based'), non-time-varying scenarios. By contrast, real world situations will be continuous and entail stimulus non-stationarity. In these circumstances, decision-making mechanisms (like the MSPRT) which work by accumulating evidence, must be able to discard outdated evidence which becomes progressively irrelevant. To address this issue, we introduce a new decision mechanism by augmenting the MSPRT with a rectangular integration window and a transparent decision boundary. This allows selection and de-selection of options as their evidence changes dynamically. Performance was enhanced by adapting the window size to problem difficulty. Further, we present an alternative windowing method which exponentially decays evidence and does not significantly degrade performance, while greatly reducing the memory resources necessary. The methods presented have proven successful at allowing for the MSPRT algorithm to function in a non-stationary environment.

Single-photon decision maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

2015-08-01

Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

An investigation of the role of some person and situation variables in multiple cue probability learning.

PubMed

Bayindir, Mustafa; Bolger, Fergus; Say, Bilge

2016-07-19

Making decisions using judgements of multiple non-deterministic indicators is an important task, both in everyday and professional life. Learning of such decision making has often been studied as the mapping of stimuli (cues) to an environmental variable (criterion); however, little attention has been paid to the effects of situation-by-person interactions on this learning. Accordingly, we manipulated cue and feedback presentation mode (graphic or numeric) and task difficulty, and measured individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC). We predicted that graphic presentation, fewer cues, and elevated WMC would facilitate learning, and that person and task characteristics would interact such that presentation mode compatible with the decision maker's cognitive capability (enhanced visual or verbal WMC) would assist learning, particularly for more difficult tasks. We found our predicted main effects, but no significant interactions, except that those with greater WMC benefited to a larger extent with graphic than with numeric presentation, regardless of which type of working memory was enhanced or number of cues. Our findings suggest that the conclusions of past research based predominantly on tasks using numeric presentation need to be reevaluated and cast light on how working memory helps us learn multiple cue-criterion relationships, with implications for dual-process theories of cognition.

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

[Decision making in the elderly: which tools for its evaluation by the clinician?].

PubMed

Hommet, Caroline; Constans, Thierry; Atanasova, Boriana; Mondon, Karl

2010-09-01

Numerous decision-making situations occur in the activities of daily living. The consequences of the decision-making capacity disturbances may have a great impact on the patient's autonomy, financial management, and his or her reaction to a diagnosis as well as the ability to accept a therapeutic option or give informed consent. Decision-making is a complex and multi-dimensional process and brings into play attention, memory and executive functions, which are processed in the prefrontal cortex, particularly vulnerable in aging. A better comprehension of the mechanisms of decision-making, and of the resulting social consequences of their dysfunction may improve autonomy of the elderly. Unfortunately, we still lack appropriate tools to explore decision-making in routine practice.

Decision-making Strategies and Performance among Seniors1

PubMed Central

Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael

2011-01-01

Using paper and pencil experiments administered in senior centers, we examine decision-making performance in multi-attribute decision problems. We differentiate the effects of declining cognitive performance and changing cognitive process on decision-making performance of seniors as they age. We find a significant decline in performance with age due to reduced reliance on common heuristics and increased decision-making randomness among our oldest subjects. However, we find that increasing the number of options in a decision problem increases the number of heuristics brought to the task. This challenges the choice overload view that people give up when confronted with too much choice. PMID:22408282

Financial Decision-making Abilities and Financial Exploitation in Older African Americans: Preliminary Validity Evidence for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS)

PubMed Central

Ficker, Lisa J.; Rahman-Filipiak, Annalise

2015-01-01

This study examines preliminary evidence for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS), a new person-centered approach to assessing capacity to make financial decisions, and its relationship to self-reported cases of financial exploitation in 69 older African Americans. More than one third of individuals reporting financial exploitation also had questionable decisional abilities. Overall, decisional ability score and current decision total were significantly associated with cognitive screening test and financial ability scores, demonstrating good criterion validity. Financially exploited individuals, and non-exploited individuals, showed mean group differences on the Mini Mental State Exam, Financial Situational Awareness, Psychological Vulnerability, Current Decisional Ability, and Susceptibility to undue influence subscales, and Total Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale Score. Study findings suggest that impaired decisional abilities may render older adults more vulnerable to financial exploitation, and that the LFDRS is a valid tool for measuring both decisional abilities and financial exploitation. PMID:26285038

The reliability and validity of a child and adolescent participation in decision-making questionnaire.

PubMed

O'Hare, L; Santin, O; Winter, K; McGuinness, C

2016-09-01

There is a growing impetus across the research, policy and practice communities for children and young people to participate in decisions that affect their lives. Furthermore, there is a dearth of general instruments that measure children and young people's views on their participation in decision-making. This paper presents the reliability and validity of the Child and Adolescent Participation in Decision-Making Questionnaire (CAP-DMQ) and specifically looks at a population of looked-after children, where a lack of participation in decision-making is an acute issue. The participants were 151 looked after children and adolescents between 10-23 years of age who completed the 10 item CAP-DMQ. Of the participants 113 were in receipt of an advocacy service that had an aim of increasing participation in decision-making with the remaining participants not having received this service. The results showed that the CAP-DMQ had good reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94) and showed promising uni-dimensional construct validity through an exploratory factor analysis. The items in the CAP-DMQ also demonstrated good content validity by overlapping with prominent models of child and adolescent participation (Lundy 2007) and decision-making (Halpern 2014). A regression analysis showed that age and gender were not significant predictors of CAP-DMQ scores but receipt of advocacy was a significant predictor of scores (effect size d = 0.88), thus showing appropriate discriminant criterion validity. Overall, the CAP-DMQ showed good reliability and validity. Therefore, the measure has excellent promise for theoretical investigation in the area of child and adolescent participation in decision-making and equally shows empirical promise for use as a measure in evaluating services, which have increasing the participation of children and adolescents in decision-making as an intended outcome. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Meta-modelling, visualization and emulation of multi-dimensional data for virtual production intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Wolfgang; Hermanns, Torsten; Al Khawli, Toufik

2017-07-01

Decision making for competitive production in high-wage countries is a daily challenge where rational and irrational methods are used. The design of decision making processes is an intriguing, discipline spanning science. However, there are gaps in understanding the impact of the known mathematical and procedural methods on the usage of rational choice theory. Following Benjamin Franklin's rule for decision making formulated in London 1772, he called "Prudential Algebra" with the meaning of prudential reasons, one of the major ingredients of Meta-Modelling can be identified finally leading to one algebraic value labelling the results (criteria settings) of alternative decisions (parameter settings). This work describes the advances in Meta-Modelling techniques applied to multi-dimensional and multi-criterial optimization by identifying the persistence level of the corresponding Morse-Smale Complex. Implementations for laser cutting and laser drilling are presented, including the generation of fast and frugal Meta-Models with controlled error based on mathematical model reduction Reduced Models are derived to avoid any unnecessary complexity. Both, model reduction and analysis of multi-dimensional parameter space are used to enable interactive communication between Discovery Finders and Invention Makers. Emulators and visualizations of a metamodel are introduced as components of Virtual Production Intelligence making applicable the methods of Scientific Design Thinking and getting the developer as well as the operator more skilled.

Multi-objective optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yue-he; Luo, Ya-zhong

2016-10-01

Space station logistics strategy optimisation is a complex engineering problem with multiple objectives. Finding a decision-maker-preferred compromise solution becomes more significant when solving such a problem. However, the designer-preferred solution is not easy to determine using the traditional method. Thus, a hybrid approach that combines the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, physical programming, and differential evolution (DE) algorithm is proposed to deal with the optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to acquire a Pareto frontier and help determine the range parameters of the physical programming. Physical programming is employed to convert the four-objective problem into a single-objective problem, and a DE algorithm is applied to solve the resulting physical programming-based optimisation problem. Five kinds of objective preference are simulated and compared. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can produce good compromise solutions corresponding to different decision-makers' preferences.

DATA COLLECTION MANAGER MODULE OF REGION III'S MULTI-CRITERIA INTEGRATED RESOURCE ASSESSMENT (MIRA) ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

This proposal pertains to the on-going development of the Data Collection Manager (DCM) module, which is one of three modules that compose MIRA, Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment. MIRA is Region III's newly conceived and continually developing decision support approac...

Design for sustainability of industrial symbiosis based on emergy and multi-objective particle swarm optimization.

PubMed

Ren, Jingzheng; Liang, Hanwei; Dong, Liang; Sun, Lu; Gao, Zhiqiu

2016-08-15

Industrial symbiosis provides novel and practical pathway to the design for the sustainability. Decision support tool for its verification is necessary for practitioners and policy makers, while to date, quantitative research is limited. The objective of this work is to present an innovative approach for supporting decision-making in the design for the sustainability with the implementation of industrial symbiosis in chemical complex. Through incorporating the emergy theory, the model is formulated as a multi-objective approach that can optimize both the economic benefit and sustainable performance of the integrated industrial system. A set of emergy based evaluation index are designed. Multi-objective Particle Swarm Algorithm is proposed to solve the model, and the decision-makers are allowed to choose the suitable solutions form the Pareto solutions. An illustrative case has been studied by the proposed method, a few of compromises between high profitability and high sustainability can be obtained for the decision-makers/stakeholders to make decision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do persons with dementia participate in decision making related to health and daily care? A multi-case study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Many countries have passed laws giving patients the right to participate in decisions about health care. People with dementia cannot be assumed to be incapable of making decisions on their diagnosis alone as they may have retained cognitive abilities. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of how persons with dementia participated in making decisions about health care and how their family carers and professional caregivers influenced decision making. Methods This Norwegian study had a qualitative multi-case design. The triad in each of the ten cases consisted of the person with dementia, the family carer and the professional caregiver, in all 30 participants. Inclusion criteria for the persons with dementia were: (1) 67 years or older (2) diagnosed with dementia (3) Clinical Dementia Rating score 2, moderate dementia; (3) able to communicate verbally. The family carers and professional caregivers were then asked to participate. A semi-structured interview guide was used in interviews with family carers and professional caregivers. Field notes were written after participant observation of interactions between persons with dementia and professional caregivers during morning care or activities at a day centre. How the professional caregivers facilitated decision making was the focus of the observations that varied in length from 30 to 90 minutes. The data were analyzed using framework analysis combined with a hermeneutical interpretive approach. Results Professional caregivers based their assessment of mental competence on experience and not on standardized tests. Persons with dementia demonstrated variability in how they participated in decision making. Pseudo-autonomous decision making and delegating decision making were new categories that emerged. Autonomous decision making did occur but shared decision making was the most typical pattern. Reduced mental capacity, lack of available choices or not being given the opportunity to participate led to non-involvement. Not all decisions were based on logic; personal values and relationships were also considered. Conclusions Persons with moderate dementia demonstrated variability in how they participated in decision making. Optimal involvement was facilitated by positioning them as capable of influencing decisions, assessing decision-specific competence, clarifying values and understanding the significance of relationships and context. PMID:22870952

Paradigms of mangroves in treatment of anthropogenic wastewater pollution.

PubMed

Ouyang, Xiaoguang; Guo, Fen

2016-02-15

Mangroves have been increasingly recognized for treating wastewater from aquaculture, sewage and other sources with the overwhelming urbanization trend. This study clarified the three paradigms of mangroves in disposing wastewater contaminants: natural mangroves, constructed wetlands (including free water surface and subsurface flow) and mangrove-aquaculture coupling systems. Plant uptake is the common major mechanism for nutrient removal in all the paradigms as mangroves are generally nitrogen and phosphorus limited. Besides, sediments accrete and provide substrates for microbial activities, thereby removing organic matter and nutrients from wastewater in natural mangroves and constructed wetlands. Among the paradigms, the mangrove-aquaculture coupling system was determined to be the optimal alternative for aquaculture wastewater treatment by multi-criterion decision making. Sensitivity analysis shows variability of alternative ranking but underpins the coupling system as the most environment-friendly and cost-efficient option. Mangrove restoration is expected to be achievable if aquaculture ponds are planted with mangrove seedlings, creating the coupling system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

More Heads Are Better than One: School-Based Decision-Making in Varied School Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mokoena, Sello; Machaisa, Rebotile

2018-01-01

In this multi-case qualitative study the degree to which school-based decision-making (SBDM) is understood and conceptualised by the members of school governing bodies (SGBs)--educators, chairpersons of SGBs, principals, and learner representative councils-as well the extent to which decisions were shared among the various groups represented on…

Application of Grey Relational Analysis to Decision-Making during Product Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsiao, Shih-Wen; Lin, Hsin-Hung; Ko, Ya-Chuan

2017-01-01

A multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach was proposed in this study as a prediction method that differs from the conventional production and design methods for a product. When a client has different dimensional requirements, this approach can quickly provide a company with design decisions for each product. The production factors of a…

Processing Technology Selection for Municipal Sewage Treatment Based on a Multi-Objective Decision Model under Uncertainty.

PubMed

Chen, Xudong; Xu, Zhongwen; Yao, Liming; Ma, Ning

2018-03-05

This study considers the two factors of environmental protection and economic benefits to address municipal sewage treatment. Based on considerations regarding the sewage treatment plant construction site, processing technology, capital investment, operation costs, water pollutant emissions, water quality and other indicators, we establish a general multi-objective decision model for optimizing municipal sewage treatment plant construction. Using the construction of a sewage treatment plant in a suburb of Chengdu as an example, this paper tests the general model of multi-objective decision-making for the sewage treatment plant construction by implementing a genetic algorithm. The results show the applicability and effectiveness of the multi-objective decision model for the sewage treatment plant. This paper provides decision and technical support for the optimization of municipal sewage treatment.

Evidence accumulation in decision making: unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D; Cummins, Tarrant D R

2004-04-01

An evidence accumulation model of forced-choice decision making is proposed to unify the fast and frugal take the best (TTB) model and the alternative rational (RAT) model with which it is usually contrasted. The basic idea is to treat the TTB model as a sequential-sampling process that terminates as soon as any evidence in favor of a decision is found and the rational approach as a sequential-sampling process that terminates only when all available information has been assessed. The unified TTB and RAT models were tested in an experiment in which participants learned to make correct judgments for a set of real-world stimuli on the basis of feedback, and were then asked to make additional judgments without feedback for cases in which the TTB and the rational models made different predictions. The results show that, in both experiments, there was strong intraparticipant consistency in the use of either the TTB or the rational model but large interparticipant differences in which model was used. The unified model is shown to be able to capture the differences in decision making across participants in an interpretable way and is preferred by the minimum description length model selection criterion.

A framework for multi-stakeholder decision-making and conflict resolution

EPA Science Inventory

We propose a decision-making framework to compute compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives. In our setting, we shape the stakeholder dis-satisfaction distribution by solving a conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) minimiz...

Lifecycle analysis for automobiles: Uses and limitations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaines, L.; Stodolsky, F.

There has been a recent trend toward the use of lifecycle analysis (LCA) as a decision-making tool for the automotive industry. However, the different practitioners` methods and assumptions vary widely, as do the interpretations put on the results. The lack of uniformity has been addressed by such groups as the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), but standardization of methodology assures neither meaningful results nor appropriate use of the results. This paper examines the types of analysis that are possible for automobiles, explains possible pitfalls to be avoided, and suggests ways thatmore » LCA can be used as part of a rational decision-making procedure. The key to performing a useful analysis is identification of the factors that will actually be used in making the decision. It makes no sense to analyze system energy use in detail if direct financial cost is to be the decision criterion. Criteria may depend on who is making the decision (consumer, producer, regulator). LCA can be used to track system performance for a variety of criteria, including emissions, energy use, and monetary costs, and these can have spatial and temporal distributions. Because optimization of one parameter is likely to worsen another, identification of trade-offs is an important function of LCA.« less

An evaluation of treatment decisions at a colorectal cancer multi-disciplinary team.

PubMed

Wood, J J; Metcalfe, C; Paes, A; Sylvester, P; Durdey, P; Thomas, M G; Blazeby, J M

2008-10-01

It is mandatory for treatment decisions for patients with colorectal cancer to be made within the context of a multi-disciplinary team (MDT) meeting. It is currently uncertain, however, how to best evaluate the quality of MDT decision-making. This study examined MDT decision-making by studying whether MDT treatment decisions were implemented and investigated the reasons why some decisions changed after the meeting. Consecutive MDT treatment decisions were prospectively recorded. Implementation of decisions was studied by examining hospital records. Reasons for changes in MDT decisions were identified. In all, 201 consecutive treatment decisions were analysed, concerning 157 patients. Twenty decisions (10.0%, 95% confidence interval 6.3-15.2%) were not implemented. Looking at the reasons for nonimplementation, nine (40%) related to co-morbidity, seven (35%) to patient choice, two changed in light of new clinical information, one doctor changed a decision and for one changed decision, no reason was apparent. When decisions changed, the final treatment was always more conservative than was originally planned and decisions were more likely to change for colon rather than rectal cancer (P = 0.024). The vast majority of colorectal MDT decisions were implemented and when decisions changed, it mostly related to patient factors that had not been taken into account. Analysis of the implementation of team decisions is an informative process to monitor the quality of MDT decision-making.

Minnesota's Comprehensive Assessments: 1998 and 1999 Participation and Performance of Students with Disabilities. State Assessment Series, Minnesota Report 32.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walz, Lynn; Thompson, Sandra; Thurlow, Martha; Spicuzza, Richard

This report focuses on the participation and performance of students with disabilities on the initial administration of Minnesota's Comprehensive Assessments (MCAs). The MCAs are criterion-referenced tests used for district accountability purposes and as tools for making decisions about curriculum and instruction. Assessments in mathematics and…

The Role of Evidence in the Decision-Making Process of Selecting Essential Medicines in Developing Countries: The Case of Tanzania

PubMed Central

Mori, Amani Thomas; Kaale, Eliangiringa Amos; Ngalesoni, Frida; Norheim, Ole Frithjof; Robberstad, Bjarne

2014-01-01

Background Insufficient access to essential medicines is a major health challenge in developing countries. Despite the importance of Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine Lists in facilitating access to medicines, little is known about how they are updated. This study aims to describe the process of updating the Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List in Tanzania and further examines the criteria and the underlying evidence used in decision-making. Methods This is a qualitative study in which data were collected by in-depth interviews and document reviews. Interviews were conducted with 18 key informants who were involved in updating the Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List. We used a thematic content approach to analyse the data. Findings The Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List was updated by committees of experts who were recruited mostly from referral hospitals and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Efficacy, safety, availability and affordability were the most frequently utilised criteria in decision-making, although these were largely based on experience rather than evidence. In addition, recommendations from international guidelines and medicine promotions also influenced decision-making. Cost-effectiveness, despite being an important criterion for formulary decisions, was not utilised. Conclusions Recent decisions about the selection of essential medicines in Tanzania were made by committees of experts who largely used experience and discretionary judgement, leaving evidence with only a limited role in decision-making process. There may be several reasons for the current limited use of evidence in decision-making, but one hypothesis that remains to be explored is whether training experts in evidence-based decision-making would lead to a better and more explicit use of evidence. PMID:24416293

The role of evidence in the decision-making process of selecting essential medicines in developing countries: the case of Tanzania.

PubMed

Mori, Amani Thomas; Kaale, Eliangiringa Amos; Ngalesoni, Frida; Norheim, Ole Frithjof; Robberstad, Bjarne

2014-01-01

Insufficient access to essential medicines is a major health challenge in developing countries. Despite the importance of Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine Lists in facilitating access to medicines, little is known about how they are updated. This study aims to describe the process of updating the Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List in Tanzania and further examines the criteria and the underlying evidence used in decision-making. This is a qualitative study in which data were collected by in-depth interviews and document reviews. Interviews were conducted with 18 key informants who were involved in updating the Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List. We used a thematic content approach to analyse the data. The Standard Treatment Guidelines and National Essential Medicine List was updated by committees of experts who were recruited mostly from referral hospitals and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Efficacy, safety, availability and affordability were the most frequently utilised criteria in decision-making, although these were largely based on experience rather than evidence. In addition, recommendations from international guidelines and medicine promotions also influenced decision-making. Cost-effectiveness, despite being an important criterion for formulary decisions, was not utilised. Recent decisions about the selection of essential medicines in Tanzania were made by committees of experts who largely used experience and discretionary judgement, leaving evidence with only a limited role in decision-making process. There may be several reasons for the current limited use of evidence in decision-making, but one hypothesis that remains to be explored is whether training experts in evidence-based decision-making would lead to a better and more explicit use of evidence.

Selection of adequate site location during early stages of construction project management: A multi-criteria decision analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marović, Ivan; Hanak, Tomaš

2017-10-01

In the management of construction projects special attention should be given to the planning as the most important phase of decision-making process. Quality decision-making based on adequate and comprehensive collaboration of all involved stakeholders is crucial in project’s early stages. Fundamental reasons for existence of this problem arise from: specific conditions of construction industry (final products are inseparable from the location i.e. location has a strong influence of building design and its structural characteristics as well as technology which will be used during construction), investors’ desires and attitudes, and influence of socioeconomic and environment aspects. Considering all mentioned reasons one can conclude that selection of adequate construction site location for future investment is complex, low structured and multi-criteria problem. To take into account all the dimensions, the proposed model for selection of adequate site location is devised. The model is based on AHP (for designing the decision-making hierarchy) and PROMETHEE (for pairwise comparison of investment locations) methods. As a result of mixing basis feature of both methods, operational synergies can be achieved in multi-criteria decision analysis. Such gives the decision-maker a sense of assurance, knowing that if the procedure proposed by the presented model has been followed, it will lead to a rational decision, carefully and systematically thought out.

Making the right decisions about new technologies: a perspective on criteria and preferences in hospitals.

PubMed

Gurtner, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Decision makers in hospitals are regularly faced with choices about the adoption of new technologies. Wrong decisions lead to a waste of resources and can have serious effects on the patients' and hospital's well-being. The goal of this research was to contribute to the understanding of decision making in hospitals. This study produced insights regarding relevant decision criteria and explored their specific relevance. An initial empirical survey was used to collect the relevant criteria for technological decision making in hospitals. In total, 220 experts in the field of health technology assessment from 34 countries participated in the survey. As a second step, the abovementioned criteria were used to form the basis of an analytic hierarchy process model. A group of 115 physicians, medical technical assistants, and other staff, all of whom worked in the field of radiooncology, prioritized the criteria. An analysis of variance was performed to explore differences among groups in terms of institutional and personal categorization variables. The first part of the research revealed seven key criteria for technological decision making in hospitals. The analytic hierarchy process model revealed that organizational impact was the most important criterion, followed by budget impact. The analysis of variance indicated that there were differences in the perceptions of the importance of the identified criteria. This exploration of the criteria for technological decision making in hospitals will help decision makers consider all of the relevant aspects, leading to more structured and rational decisions. For the optimal resource allocation, all of the relevant stakeholder perspectives and local issues must be considered appropriately.

What is adaptive about adaptive decision making? A parallel constraint satisfaction account.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Jekel, Marc

2014-12-01

There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns - as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ELICIT: An alternative imprecise weight elicitation technique for use in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Sanogo, Vassiki; Moussa, Kouame Richard

2016-01-01

In this paper, the readers are introduced to ELICIT, an imprecise weight elicitation technique for multicriteria decision analysis for healthcare. The application of ELICIT consists of two steps: the rank ordering of evaluation criteria based on decision-makers' (DMs) preferences using the principal component analysis; and the estimation of criteria weights and their descriptive statistics using the variable interdependent analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The application of ELICIT is illustrated with a hypothetical case study involving the elicitation of weights for five criteria used to select the best device for eye surgery. The criteria were ranked from 1-5, based on a strict preference relationship established by the DMs. For each criterion, the deterministic weight was estimated as well as the standard deviation and 95% credibility interval. ELICIT is appropriate in situations where only ordinal DMs' preferences are available to elicit decision criteria weights.

Deciding how to decide: ventromedial frontal lobe damage affects information acquisition in multi-attribute decision making.

PubMed

Fellows, Lesley K

2006-04-01

Ventromedial frontal lobe (VMF) damage is associated with impaired decision making. Recent efforts to understand the functions of this brain region have focused on its role in tracking reward, punishment and risk. However, decision making is complex, and frontal lobe damage might be expected to affect it at other levels. This study used process-tracing techniques to explore the effect of VMF damage on multi-attribute decision making under certainty. Thirteen subjects with focal VMF damage were compared with 11 subjects with frontal damage that spared the VMF and 21 demographically matched healthy control subjects. Participants chose rental apartments in a standard information board task drawn from the literature on normal decision making. VMF subjects performed the decision making task in a way that differed markedly from all other groups, favouring an 'alternative-based' information acquisition strategy (i.e. they organized their information search around individual apartments). In contrast, both healthy control subjects and subjects with damage predominantly involving dorsal and/or lateral prefrontal cortex pursued primarily 'attribute-based' search strategies (in which information was acquired about categories such as rent and noise level across several apartments). This difference in the pattern of information acquisition argues for systematic differences in the underlying decision heuristics and strategies employed by subjects with VMF damage, which in turn may affect the quality of their choices. These findings suggest that the processes supported by ventral and medial prefrontal cortex need to be conceptualized more broadly, to account for changes in decision making under conditions of certainty, as well as uncertainty, following damage to these areas.

Dynamic Educational e-Content Selection Using Multiple Criteria in Web-Based Personalized Learning Environments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manouselis, Nikos; Sampson, Demetrios

This paper focuses on the way a multi-criteria decision making methodology is applied in the case of agent-based selection of offered learning objects. The problem of selection is modeled as a decision making one, with the decision variables being the learner model and the learning objects' educational description. In this way, selection of…

Patchy 'coherence': using normalization process theory to evaluate a multi-faceted shared decision making implementation program (MAGIC).

PubMed

Lloyd, Amy; Joseph-Williams, Natalie; Edwards, Adrian; Rix, Andrew; Elwyn, Glyn

2013-09-05

Implementing shared decision making into routine practice is proving difficult, despite considerable interest from policy-makers, and is far more complex than merely making decision support interventions available to patients. Few have reported successful implementation beyond research studies. MAking Good Decisions In Collaboration (MAGIC) is a multi-faceted implementation program, commissioned by The Health Foundation (UK), to examine how best to put shared decision making into routine practice. In this paper, we investigate healthcare professionals' perspectives on implementing shared decision making during the MAGIC program, to examine the work required to implement shared decision making and to inform future efforts. The MAGIC program approached implementation of shared decision making by initiating a range of interventions including: providing workshops; facilitating development of brief decision support tools (Option Grids); initiating a patient activation campaign ('Ask 3 Questions'); gathering feedback using Decision Quality Measures; providing clinical leads meetings, learning events, and feedback sessions; and obtaining executive board level support. At 9 and 15 months (May and November 2011), two rounds of semi-structured interviews were conducted with healthcare professionals in three secondary care teams to explore views on the impact of these interventions. Interview data were coded by two reviewers using a framework derived from the Normalization Process Theory. A total of 54 interviews were completed with 31 healthcare professionals. Partial implementation of shared decision making could be explained using the four components of the Normalization Process Theory: 'coherence,' 'cognitive participation,' 'collective action,' and 'reflexive monitoring.' Shared decision making was integrated into routine practice when clinical teams shared coherent views of role and purpose ('coherence'). Shared decision making was facilitated when teams engaged in developing and delivering interventions ('cognitive participation'), and when those interventions fit with existing skill sets and organizational priorities ('collective action') resulting in demonstrable improvements to practice ('reflexive monitoring'). The implementation process uncovered diverse and conflicting attitudes toward shared decision making; 'coherence' was often missing. The study showed that implementation of shared decision making is more complex than the delivery of patient decision support interventions to patients, a portrayal that often goes unquestioned. Normalizing shared decision making requires intensive work to ensure teams have a shared understanding of the purpose of involving patients in decisions, and undergo the attitudinal shifts that many health professionals feel are required when comprehension goes beyond initial interpretations. Divergent views on the value of engaging patients in decisions remain a significant barrier to implementation.

Patchy ‘coherence’: using normalization process theory to evaluate a multi-faceted shared decision making implementation program (MAGIC)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Implementing shared decision making into routine practice is proving difficult, despite considerable interest from policy-makers, and is far more complex than merely making decision support interventions available to patients. Few have reported successful implementation beyond research studies. MAking Good Decisions In Collaboration (MAGIC) is a multi-faceted implementation program, commissioned by The Health Foundation (UK), to examine how best to put shared decision making into routine practice. In this paper, we investigate healthcare professionals’ perspectives on implementing shared decision making during the MAGIC program, to examine the work required to implement shared decision making and to inform future efforts. Methods The MAGIC program approached implementation of shared decision making by initiating a range of interventions including: providing workshops; facilitating development of brief decision support tools (Option Grids); initiating a patient activation campaign (‘Ask 3 Questions’); gathering feedback using Decision Quality Measures; providing clinical leads meetings, learning events, and feedback sessions; and obtaining executive board level support. At 9 and 15 months (May and November 2011), two rounds of semi-structured interviews were conducted with healthcare professionals in three secondary care teams to explore views on the impact of these interventions. Interview data were coded by two reviewers using a framework derived from the Normalization Process Theory. Results A total of 54 interviews were completed with 31 healthcare professionals. Partial implementation of shared decision making could be explained using the four components of the Normalization Process Theory: ‘coherence,’ ‘cognitive participation,’ ‘collective action,’ and ‘reflexive monitoring.’ Shared decision making was integrated into routine practice when clinical teams shared coherent views of role and purpose (‘coherence’). Shared decision making was facilitated when teams engaged in developing and delivering interventions (‘cognitive participation’), and when those interventions fit with existing skill sets and organizational priorities (‘collective action’) resulting in demonstrable improvements to practice (‘reflexive monitoring’). The implementation process uncovered diverse and conflicting attitudes toward shared decision making; ‘coherence’ was often missing. Conclusions The study showed that implementation of shared decision making is more complex than the delivery of patient decision support interventions to patients, a portrayal that often goes unquestioned. Normalizing shared decision making requires intensive work to ensure teams have a shared understanding of the purpose of involving patients in decisions, and undergo the attitudinal shifts that many health professionals feel are required when comprehension goes beyond initial interpretations. Divergent views on the value of engaging patients in decisions remain a significant barrier to implementation. PMID:24006959

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF DICHLOROACETIC ACID (DCA) USING A MULTI-ENDPOINT MEDAKA ASSAY

EPA Science Inventory

In regulating the safety of water, EPA makes decisions on what chemical contaminants to regulate and at what levels. To make these decisions, the EPA needs hazard identification and dose-response information. Current rodent methods for generating required information have limita...

TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

PubMed

Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

2016-01-01

In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

Incorporating ecosystem function concept in environmental planning and decision making by means of multi-criteria evaluation: the case-study of Kalloni, Lesbos, Greece.

PubMed

Oikonomou, Vera; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Troumbis, Andreas Y

2011-01-01

Nature provides life-support services which do not merely constitute the basis for ecosystem integrity but also benefit human societies. The importance of such multiple outputs is often ignored or underestimated in environmental planning and decision making. The economic valuation of ecosystem functions or services has been widely used to make these benefits economically visible and thus address this deficiency. Alternatively, the relative importance of the components of ecosystem value can be identified and compared by means of multi-criteria evaluation. Hereupon, this article proposes a conceptual framework that couples ecosystem function analysis, multi criteria evaluation and social research methodologies for introducing an ecosystem function-based planning and management approach. The framework consists of five steps providing the structure of a participative decision making process which is then tested and ratified, by applying the discrete multi-criteria method NAIADE, in the Kalloni Natura 2000 site, on Lesbos, Greece. Three scenarios were developed and evaluated with regard to their impacts on the different types of ecosystem functions and the social actors' value judgements. A conflict analysis permitted the better elaboration of the different views, outlining the coalitions formed in the local community and shaping the way towards reaching a consensus.

Incorporating Ecosystem Function Concept in Environmental Planning and Decision Making by Means of Multi-Criteria Evaluation: The Case-Study of Kalloni, Lesbos, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oikonomou, Vera; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G.; Troumbis, Andreas Y.

2011-01-01

Nature provides life-support services which do not merely constitute the basis for ecosystem integrity but also benefit human societies. The importance of such multiple outputs is often ignored or underestimated in environmental planning and decision making. The economic valuation of ecosystem functions or services has been widely used to make these benefits economically visible and thus address this deficiency. Alternatively, the relative importance of the components of ecosystem value can be identified and compared by means of multi-criteria evaluation. Hereupon, this article proposes a conceptual framework that couples ecosystem function analysis, multi criteria evaluation and social research methodologies for introducing an ecosystem function-based planning and management approach. The framework consists of five steps providing the structure of a participative decision making process which is then tested and ratified, by applying the discrete multi-criteria method NAIADE, in the Kalloni Natura 2000 site, on Lesbos, Greece. Three scenarios were developed and evaluated with regard to their impacts on the different types of ecosystem functions and the social actors' value judgements. A conflict analysis permitted the better elaboration of the different views, outlining the coalitions formed in the local community and shaping the way towards reaching a consensus.

Uncertainty analysis for effluent trading planning using a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach.

PubMed

Zhang, J L; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Baetz, B W; Liu, J

2017-06-01

In this study, a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach (BESMA) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies. BESMA incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian estimation, and probabilistic-possibilistic interval programming with fuzzy random coefficients (PPI-FRC) within a general framework. Based on the water quality protocols provided by SWAT, posterior distributions of parameters can be analyzed through Bayesian estimation; stochastic characteristic of nutrient loading can be investigated which provides the inputs for the decision making. PPI-FRC can address multiple uncertainties in the form of intervals with fuzzy random boundaries and the associated system risk through incorporating the concept of possibility and necessity measures. The possibility and necessity measures are suitable for optimistic and pessimistic decision making, respectively. BESMA is applied to a real case of effluent trading planning in the Xiangxihe watershed, China. A number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different trading ratios and treatment rates. The results can not only facilitate identification of optimal effluent-trading schemes, but also gain insight into the effects of trading ratio and treatment rate on decision making. The results also reveal that decision maker's preference towards risk would affect decision alternatives on trading scheme as well as system benefit. Compared with the conventional optimization methods, it is proved that BESMA is advantageous in (i) dealing with multiple uncertainties associated with randomness and fuzziness in effluent-trading planning within a multi-source, multi-reach and multi-period context; (ii) reflecting uncertainties existing in nutrient transport behaviors to improve the accuracy in water quality prediction; and (iii) supporting pessimistic and optimistic decision making for effluent trading as well as promoting diversity of decision alternatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Healthcare managers' decision making: findings of a small scale exploratory study.

PubMed

Macdonald, Jackie; Bath, Peter A; Booth, Andrew

2008-12-01

Managers who work in publicly funded healthcare organizations are an understudied group. Some of the influences on their decisions may be unique to healthcare. This study considers how to integrate research knowledge effectively into healthcare managers' decision making, and how to manage and integrate information that will include community data. This first phase in a two-phase mixed methods research study used a qualitative, multiple case studies design. Nineteen semi-structured interviews were undertaken using the critical incident technique. Interview transcripts were analysed using the NatCen Framework. One theme represented ;information and decisions'. Cases were determined to involve complex multi-level, multi-situational decisions with participants in practical rather than ceremonial work roles. Most considered organizational knowledge in the first two decision phases and external knowledge, including research, in the third phase. All participants engaged in satisficing to some degree.

A Model for Estimating the Reliability and Validity of Criterion-Referenced Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edmonston, Leon P.; Randall, Robert S.

A decision model designed to determine the reliability and validity of criterion referenced measures (CRMs) is presented. General procedures which pertain to the model are discussed as to: Measures of relationship, Reliability, Validity (content, criterion-oriented, and construct validation), and Item Analysis. The decision model is presented in…

Allocating health care: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, or the veil of ignorance?

PubMed

Goold, S D

1996-01-01

Assuming that rationing health care is unavoidable, and that it requires moral reasoning, how should we allocate limited health care resources? This question is difficult because our pluralistic, liberal society has no consensus on a conception of distributive justice. In this article I focus on an alternative: Who shall decide how to ration health care, and how shall this be done to respect autonomy, pluralism, liberalism, and fairness? I explore three processes for making rationing decisions: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, and applications of the veil of ignorance. I evaluate these processes as examples of procedural justice, assuming that there is no outcome considered the most just. I use consent as a criterion to judge competing processes so that rationing decisions are, to some extent, self-imposed. I also examine the processes' feasibility in our current health care system. Cost-utility analysis does not meet criteria for actual or presumed consent, even if costs and health-related utility could be measured perfectly. Existing structures of government cannot creditably assimilate the information required for sound rationing decisions, and grassroots efforts are not representative. Applications of the veil of ignorance are more useful for identifying principles relevant to health care rationing than for making concrete rationing decisions. I outline a process of decision making, specifically for health care, that relies on substantive, selected representation, respects pluralism, liberalism, and deliberative democracy, and could be implemented at the community or organizational level.

Building a picture: Prioritisation of exotic diseases for the pig industry in Australia using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Brookes, V J; Hernández-Jover, M; Cowled, B; Holyoake, P K; Ward, M P

2014-01-01

Diseases that are exotic to the pig industry in Australia were prioritised using a multi-criteria decision analysis framework that incorporated weights of importance for a range of criteria important to industry stakeholders. Measurements were collected for each disease for nine criteria that described potential disease impacts. A total score was calculated for each disease using a weighted sum value function that aggregated the nine disease criterion measurements and weights of importance for the criteria that were previously elicited from two groups of industry stakeholders. One stakeholder group placed most value on the impacts of disease on livestock, and one group placed more value on the zoonotic impacts of diseases. Prioritisation lists ordered by disease score were produced for both of these groups. Vesicular diseases were found to have the highest priority for the group valuing disease impacts on livestock, followed by acute forms of African and classical swine fever, then highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. The group who valued zoonotic disease impacts prioritised rabies, followed by Japanese encephalitis, Eastern equine encephalitis and Nipah virus, interspersed with vesicular diseases. The multi-criteria framework used in this study systematically prioritised diseases using a multi-attribute theory based technique that provided transparency and repeatability in the process. Flexibility of the framework was demonstrated by aggregating the criterion weights from more than one stakeholder group with the disease measurements for the criteria. This technique allowed industry stakeholders to be active in resource allocation for their industry without the need to be disease experts. We believe it is the first prioritisation of livestock diseases using values provided by industry stakeholders. The prioritisation lists will be used by industry stakeholders to identify diseases for further risk analysis and disease spread modelling to understand biosecurity risks to this industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two Validated Ways of Improving the Ability of Decision-Making in Emergencies; Results from a Literature Review

PubMed Central

Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Berlin, Johan; Carlström, Eric

2016-01-01

The aim of the current review wasto study the existing knowledge about decision-making and to identify and describe validated training tools.A comprehensive literature review was conducted by using the following keywords: decision-making, emergencies, disasters, crisis management, training, exercises, simulation, validated, real-time, command and control, communication, collaboration, and multi-disciplinary in combination or as an isolated word. Two validated training systems developed in Sweden, 3 level collaboration (3LC) and MacSim, were identified and studied in light of the literature review in order to identify how decision-making can be trained. The training models fulfilled six of the eight identified characteristics of training for decision-making.Based on the results, these training models contained methods suitable to train for decision-making. PMID:27878123

Improved multi-objective ant colony optimization algorithm and its application in complex reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xinqing; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Dong; Zhu, Huijie; Zhang, Qing

2013-09-01

The problem of fault reasoning has aroused great concern in scientific and engineering fields. However, fault investigation and reasoning of complex system is not a simple reasoning decision-making problem. It has become a typical multi-constraint and multi-objective reticulate optimization decision-making problem under many influencing factors and constraints. So far, little research has been carried out in this field. This paper transforms the fault reasoning problem of complex system into a paths-searching problem starting from known symptoms to fault causes. Three optimization objectives are considered simultaneously: maximum probability of average fault, maximum average importance, and minimum average complexity of test. Under the constraints of both known symptoms and the causal relationship among different components, a multi-objective optimization mathematical model is set up, taking minimizing cost of fault reasoning as the target function. Since the problem is non-deterministic polynomial-hard(NP-hard), a modified multi-objective ant colony algorithm is proposed, in which a reachability matrix is set up to constrain the feasible search nodes of the ants and a new pseudo-random-proportional rule and a pheromone adjustment mechinism are constructed to balance conflicts between the optimization objectives. At last, a Pareto optimal set is acquired. Evaluation functions based on validity and tendency of reasoning paths are defined to optimize noninferior set, through which the final fault causes can be identified according to decision-making demands, thus realize fault reasoning of the multi-constraint and multi-objective complex system. Reasoning results demonstrate that the improved multi-objective ant colony optimization(IMACO) can realize reasoning and locating fault positions precisely by solving the multi-objective fault diagnosis model, which provides a new method to solve the problem of multi-constraint and multi-objective fault diagnosis and reasoning of complex system.

Multi-object detection and tracking technology based on hexagonal opto-electronic detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yong; Hao, Qun; Li, Xiang

2008-02-01

A novel multi-object detection and tracking technology based on hexagonal opto-electronic detector is proposed, in which (1) a new hexagonal detector, which is composed of 6 linear CCDs, has been firstly developed to achieve the field of view of 360 degree, (2) to achieve the detection and tracking of multi-object with high speed, the object recognition criterions of Object Signal Width Criterion (OSWC) and Horizontal Scale Ratio Criterion (HSRC) are proposed. In this paper, Simulated Experiments have been carried out to verify the validity of the proposed technology, which show that the detection and tracking of multi-object can be achieved with high speed by using the proposed hexagonal detector and the criterions of OSWC and HSRC, indicating that the technology offers significant advantages in Photo-electric Detection, Computer Vision, Virtual Reality, Augment Reality, etc.

Different profiles of decision making and physiology under varying levels of stress in trained military personnel.

PubMed

Gamble, Katherine R; Vettel, Jean M; Patton, Debra J; Eddy, Marianna D; Caroline Davis, F; Garcia, Javier O; Spangler, Derek P; Thayer, Julian F; Brooks, Justin R

2018-03-23

Decision making is one of the most vital processes we use every day, ranging from mundane decisions about what to eat to life-threatening choices such as how to avoid a car collision. Thus, the context in which our decisions are made is critical, and our physiology enables adaptive responses that account for how environmental stress influences our performance. The relationship between stress and decision making can additionally be affected by one's expertise in making decisions in high-threat environments, where experts can develop an adaptive response that mitigates the negative impacts of stress. In the present study, 26 male military personnel made friend/foe discriminations in an environment where we manipulated the level of stress. In the high-stress condition, participants received a shock when they incorrectly shot a friend or missed shooting a foe; in the low-stress condition, participants received a vibration for an incorrect decision. We characterized performance using signal detection theory to investigate whether a participant changed their decision criterion to avoid making an error. Results showed that under high-stress, participants made more false alarms, mistaking friends as foes, and this co-occurred with increased high frequency heart rate variability. Finally, we examined the relationship between decision making and physiology, and found that participants exhibited adaptive behavioral and physiological profiles under different stress levels. We interpret this adaptive profile as a marker of an expert's ingrained training that does not require top down control, suggesting a way that expert training in high-stress environments helps to buffer negative impacts of stress on performance. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Research on AHP decision algorithms based on BP algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Guan, Jianhe

2017-10-01

Decision making is the thinking activity that people choose or judge, and scientific decision-making has always been a hot issue in the field of research. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple and practical multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making method that combines quantitative and qualitative and can show and calculate the subjective judgment in digital form. In the process of decision analysis using AHP method, the rationality of the two-dimensional judgment matrix has a great influence on the decision result. However, in dealing with the real problem, the judgment matrix produced by the two-dimensional comparison is often inconsistent, that is, it does not meet the consistency requirements. BP neural network algorithm is an adaptive nonlinear dynamic system. It has powerful collective computing ability and learning ability. It can perfect the data by constantly modifying the weights and thresholds of the network to achieve the goal of minimizing the mean square error. In this paper, the BP algorithm is used to deal with the consistency of the two-dimensional judgment matrix of the AHP.

Decision-making patterns for dietary supplement purchases among women aged 25 to 45 years.

PubMed

Miller, Carla K; Russell, Teri; Kissling, Grace

2003-11-01

Women frequently consume dietary supplements but the criteria used to select supplements have received little investigation. This research identified the decision-making criteria used for dietary supplements among women aged 25 to 45 years who consumed a supplement at least four times per week. Participants (N=51) completed an in-store shopping interview that was audiotaped, transcribed, and analyzed qualitatively for the criteria used to make supplement selections. Qualitative analysis revealed 10 key criteria and the number of times each person used each criterion was quantified. Cluster analysis identified five homogeneous subgroups of participants based on the criteria used. These included brand shopper, bargain shopper, quality shopper, convenience shopper, and information gatherer. Supplement users vary in the criteria used to make point-of-purchase supplement selections. Dietetics professionals can classify supplement users according to the criteria used to tailor their nutrition counseling and better meet the educational needs of consumers.

Decision-Making Models of Remember-Know Judgments: Comment on Rotello, Macmillan, and Reeder (2004)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murdock, Bennet

2006-01-01

The sum-difference theory of remembering and knowing (STREAK) provides a sophisticated account of many interactions in the remember-know (R-K) area (C. M. Rotello, N. A. Macmillan, & J. A. Reeder, 2004; see record 2004-15929-002). It assumes 2 orthogonal strength dimensions and oblique criterion planes. Another dual-process model (J. T. Wixted…

Realism and Impartiality: Making Sustainability Effective in Decision-Making.

PubMed

Bastons, Miquel; Armengou, Jaume

2017-08-01

There is both individual and collective widespread concern in society about the impact of human activity and the effects of our decisions on the physical and social environment. This concern is included within the idea of sustainability. The meaning of the concept is still ambiguous and its practical effectiveness disputed. Like many other authors, this article uses as a starting point the definition proposed by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Our common future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987), considering it to be a proposal for changing the assessment of the effects of decisions, from at least two perspectives: (1) what effects we should consider and (2) how we should assess them. Based on this double perspective, sustainability is explored as a method for decision-making which both expands the assessment of the consequences, and also provides an objective criterion for such assessment. It will be argued that the idea of sustainability, seen from this perspective, brings to decision-making two qualities which had been partially lost: realism and impartiality. In turn, the criteria for realism and impartiality in decision-making can be used to identify the limitations of some partial approaches to sustainability, which suffer from insufficient realism (emotional altruism), insufficient impartiality (tactical altruism) or both phenomena at once (egoism). The article concludes by demonstrating how realism and impartiality provide the basis for a new form of sustainable decision-making (ethical sustainability), which is dependent on the development of two moral virtues, prudence and benevolence, and which brings practical effectiveness and ethical sense to the concept of sustainability.

Interoceptive and exteroceptive attention have opposite effects on subsequent somatosensory perceptual decision making.

PubMed

Mirams, Laura; Poliakoff, Ellen; Brown, Richard J; Lloyd, Donna M

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that interoceptive and exteroceptive attention might have different perceptual effects. However, the effects of these different types of body-focused attention have never been directly compared. The current research investigated how interoceptive and exteroceptive attention affect subsequent performance on the somatic signal detection task (SSDT). In Experiment 1, 37 participants completed the SSDT under usual testing conditions and after performing an interoceptive heartbeat perception task. This task led to a more liberal response criterion, leading to increased touch reports in the presence and absence of a target vibration. This finding is consistent with suggestions that attending internally contributes to physical symptom reporting in patients with medically unexplained symptoms (MUS). In Experiment 2, 40 participants completed the SSDT before and after an exteroceptive grating orientation task. This task led to a more stringent response criterion, leading to decreased touch reports in the presence and absence of the target, possibly via a reduction in sensory noise. This work demonstrates that internal and external body-focused attention can have opposite effects on subsequent somatic perceptual decision making and suggests that attentional training could be useful for patients reporting MUS.

When Does Decisional Impairment Become Decisional Incompetence? Ethical and Methodological Issues in Capacity Research in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Kim, Scott Y H

2006-01-01

Most decision-making capacity (DMC) research has focused on measuring the decision-making abilities of patients, rather than on how such persons may be categorized as competent or incompetent. However, research ethics policies and practices either assume that we can differentiate or attempt to guide the differentiation of the competent from the incompetent. Thus there is a need to build on the recent advances in capacity research by conceptualizing and studying DMC as a categorical concept. This review discusses why there is a need for such research and addresses challenges and obstacles, both practical and theoretical. After a discussion of the potential obstacles and suggesting ways to overcome them, it discusses why clinicians with expertise in capacity assessments may be the best source of a provisional “gold standard” for criterion validation of categorical capacity status. The review provides discussions of selected key methodological issues in conducting research that treats DMC as a categorical concept, such as the issue of the optimal number of expert judges needed to generate a criterion standard and the kinds of information presented to the experts in obtaining their judgments. Future research needs are outlined. PMID:16177276

A Method for Decision Making using Sustainability Indicators

EPA Science Inventory

Calculations aimed at representing the thought process of decision makers are common within multi-objective decision support tools. These calculations that mathematically describe preferences most often combine various utility scores (i.e., abilities to satisfy desires) with weig...

Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

2016-06-28

Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.

Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

2016-01-01

Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

Consensus oriented fuzzified decision support for oil spill contingency management.

PubMed

Liu, Xin; Wirtz, Kai W

2006-06-30

Studies on multi-group multi-criteria decision-making problems for oil spill contingency management are in their infancy. This paper presents a second-order fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) model to resolve decision-making problems in the area of contingency management after environmental disasters such as oil spills. To assess the performance of different oil combat strategies, second-order FCE allows for the utilization of lexical information, the consideration of ecological and socio-economic criteria and the involvement of a variety of stakeholders. On the other hand, the new approach can be validated by using internal and external checks, which refer to sensitivity tests regarding its internal setups and comparisons with other methods, respectively. Through a case study, the Pallas oil spill in the German Bight in 1998, it is demonstrated that this approach can help decision makers who search for an optimal strategy in multi-thread contingency problems and has a wider application potential in the field of integrated coastal zone management.

Real-Time Analysis of a Sensor's Data for Automated Decision Making in an IoT-Based Smart Home.

PubMed

Khan, Nida Saddaf; Ghani, Sayeed; Haider, Sajjad

2018-05-25

IoT devices frequently generate large volumes of streaming data and in order to take advantage of this data, their temporal patterns must be learned and identified. Streaming data analysis has become popular after being successfully used in many applications including forecasting electricity load, stock market prices, weather conditions, etc. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been successfully utilized in understanding the embedded interesting patterns/behaviors in the data and forecasting the future values based on it. One such pattern is modelled and learned in the present study to identify the occurrence of a specific pattern in a Water Management System (WMS). This prediction aids in making an automatic decision support system, to switch OFF a hydraulic suction pump at the appropriate time. Three types of ANN, namely Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO), Multi-Input Single-Output (MISO), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) have been compared, for multi-step-ahead forecasting, on a sensor's streaming data. Experiments have shown that RNN has the best performance among three models and based on its prediction, a system can be implemented to make the best decision with 86% accuracy.

A Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision-Making and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This contribution describes the implementation of the conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) metric to create a general multi-stakeholder decision-making framework. It is observed that stakeholder dissatisfactions (distance to their individual ideal solutions) can be interpreted as random variables. We thus shape the dissatisfaction distribution and find an optimal compromise solution by solving a CVaR minimization problem parameterized in the probability level. This enables us to generalize multi-stakeholder settings previously proposed in the literature that minimizes average and worst-case dissatisfactions. We use the concept of the CVaR norm to give a geometric interpretation to this problem and use the properties of this norm to prove that the CVaR minimization problem yields Pareto optimal solutions for any choice of the probability level. We discuss a broad range of potential applications of the framework. We demonstrate the framework in a bio-waste processing facility location case study, where we seek compromise solutions (facility locations) that balance stakeholder priorities on transportation, safety, water quality, and capital costs. This conference presentation abstract explains a new decision-making framework that computes compromise solution alternatives (reach consensus) by mitigating dissatisfactions among stakeholders as needed for SHC Decision Science and Support Tools project.

The use of multi-criteria decision making models in evaluating anesthesia method options in circumcision surgery.

PubMed

Hancerliogullari, Gulsah; Hancerliogullari, Kadir Oymen; Koksalmis, Emrah

2017-01-23

Determining the most suitable anesthesia method for circumcision surgery plays a fundamental role in pediatric surgery. This study is aimed to present pediatric surgeons' perspective on the relative importance of the criteria for selecting anesthesia method for circumcision surgery by utilizing the multi-criteria decision making methods. Fuzzy set theory offers a useful tool for transforming linguistic terms into numerical assessments. Since the evaluation of anesthesia methods requires linguistic terms, we utilize the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Both mathematical decision-making methods are originated from individual judgements for qualitative factors utilizing the pair-wise comparison matrix. Our model uses four main criteria, eight sub-criteria as well as three alternatives. To assess the relative priorities, an online questionnaire was completed by three experts, pediatric surgeons, who had experience with circumcision surgery. Discussion of the results with the experts indicates that time-related factors are the most important criteria, followed by psychology, convenience and duration. Moreover, general anesthesia with penile block for circumcision surgery is the preferred choice of anesthesia compared to general anesthesia without penile block, which has a greater priority compared to local anesthesia under the discussed main-criteria and sub-criteria. The results presented in this study highlight the need to integrate surgeons' criteria into the decision making process for selecting anesthesia methods. This is the first study in which multi-criteria decision making tools, specifically fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS, are used to evaluate anesthesia methods for a pediatric surgical procedure.

Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2016-04-01

Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and our model. For each product, the experiment is composed by two cascade simulations: 1) an ex-ante simulation using forecast data, and 2) an ex-post simulation with observations. Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability, and the operational value of the different forecast products is evaluated against the perfect foresight on the basis of expected crop productivity as well as the final decisions under different decision-making criterions. Our results show that not all products generate beneficial effects to farmers' performance, and the forecast errors might be amplified due to farmers' decision-making process and risk attitudes, yielding little or even worse performance compared with the empirical approaches.

Supporting multi-stakeholder environmental decisions.

PubMed

Hajkowicz, Stefan A

2008-09-01

This paper examines how multiple criteria analysis (MCA) can be used to support multi-stakeholder environmental management decisions. It presents a study through which 48 stakeholders from environmental, primary production and community interest groups used MCA to prioritise 30 environmental management problems in the Mackay-Whitsunday region of Queensland, Australia. The MCA model, with procedures for aggregating multi-stakeholder output, was used to inform a final decision on the priority of the region's environmental management problems. The result was used in the region's environmental management plan as required under Australia's Natural Heritage Trust programme. The study shows how relatively simple MCA methods can help stakeholders make group decisions, even when they hold strongly conflicting preferences.

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Technique for Gradation of Jute Fibres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhuri, P. K.

2014-12-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making is a branch of Operation Research (OR) having a comparatively short history of about 40 years. It is being popularly used in the field of engineering, banking, fixing policy matters etc. It can also be applied for taking decisions in daily life like selecting a car to purchase, selecting bride or groom and many others. Various MCDM methods namely Weighted Sum Model (WSM), Weighted Product Model (WPM), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) and Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) are there to solve many decision making problems, each having its own limitations. However it is very difficult to decide which MCDM method is the best. MCDM methods are prospective quantitative approaches for solving decision problems involving finite number of alternatives and criteria. Very few research works in textiles have been carried out with the help of this technique particularly where decision taking among several alternatives becomes the major problem based on some criteria which are conflicting in nature. Gradation of jute fibres on the basis of the criteria like strength, root content, defects, colour, density, fineness etc. is an important task to perform. The MCDM technique provides enough scope to be applied for the gradation of jute fibres or ranking among several varieties keeping in view a particular object and on the basis of some selection criteria and their relative weightage. The present paper is an attempt to explore the scope of applying the multiplicative AHP method of multi-criteria decision making technique to determine the quality values of selected jute fibres on the basis of some above stated important criteria and ranking them accordingly. A good agreement in ranking is observed between the existing Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) grading and proposed method.

Grey Language Hesitant Fuzzy Group Decision Making Method Based on Kernel and Grey Scale

PubMed Central

Diao, Yuzhu; Hu, Aqin

2018-01-01

Based on grey language multi-attribute group decision making, a kernel and grey scale scoring function is put forward according to the definition of grey language and the meaning of the kernel and grey scale. The function introduces grey scale into the decision-making method to avoid information distortion. This method is applied to the grey language hesitant fuzzy group decision making, and the grey correlation degree is used to sort the schemes. The effectiveness and practicability of the decision-making method are further verified by the industry chain sustainable development ability evaluation example of a circular economy. Moreover, its simplicity and feasibility are verified by comparing it with the traditional grey language decision-making method and the grey language hesitant fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (GLHWAA) operator integration method after determining the index weight based on the grey correlation. PMID:29498699

Grey Language Hesitant Fuzzy Group Decision Making Method Based on Kernel and Grey Scale.

PubMed

Li, Qingsheng; Diao, Yuzhu; Gong, Zaiwu; Hu, Aqin

2018-03-02

Based on grey language multi-attribute group decision making, a kernel and grey scale scoring function is put forward according to the definition of grey language and the meaning of the kernel and grey scale. The function introduces grey scale into the decision-making method to avoid information distortion. This method is applied to the grey language hesitant fuzzy group decision making, and the grey correlation degree is used to sort the schemes. The effectiveness and practicability of the decision-making method are further verified by the industry chain sustainable development ability evaluation example of a circular economy. Moreover, its simplicity and feasibility are verified by comparing it with the traditional grey language decision-making method and the grey language hesitant fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (GLHWAA) operator integration method after determining the index weight based on the grey correlation.

[Treatment Decision-Making Process of Cancer Patients].

PubMed

Lee, Shiu-Yu C Katie

2016-10-01

The decision-making process that is used by cancer patients to determine their treatment has become more multi-foci, difficult and complicated in recent years. This has in part been attributed to the increasing incidence rate of cancer in Taiwan and the rapid development of medical technologies and treatment modalities. Oncology nurses must assist patients and family to make informed and value-based treatment decisions. Decision-making is an information process that involves appraising one's own expectation and values based on his/her knowledge on cancer and treatment options. Because cancer treatment involves risks and uncertainties, and impacts quality of life, the treatment decision-making for cancer is often stressful, or even conflicting. This paper discusses the decision-making behaviors of cancer patients and the decisional conflict, participation, and informational needs that are involved in cancer treatment. The trend toward shared decision-making and decisional support will be also explored in order to facilitate the future development of appropriate clinical interventions and research.

Multi-criteria, personalized route planning using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadi, S.; Delavar, M. R.

2011-06-01

This paper presents a generic model for using different decision strategies in multi-criteria, personalized route planning. Some researchers have considered user preferences in navigation systems. However, these prior studies typically employed a high tradeoff decision strategy, which used a weighted linear aggregation rule, and neglected other decision strategies. The proposed model integrates a pairwise comparison method and quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) aggregation operators to form a personalized route planning method that incorporates different decision strategies. The model can be used to calculate the impedance of each link regarding user preferences in terms of the route criteria, criteria importance and the selected decision strategy. Regarding the decision strategy, the calculated impedance lies between aggregations that use a logical "and" (which requires all the criteria to be satisfied) and a logical "or" (which requires at least one criterion to be satisfied). The calculated impedance also includes taking the average of the criteria scores. The model results in multiple alternative routes, which apply different decision strategies and provide users with the flexibility to select one of them en-route based on the real world situation. The model also defines the robust personalized route under different decision strategies. The influence of different decision strategies on the results are investigated in an illustrative example. This model is implemented in a web-based geographical information system (GIS) for Isfahan in Iran and verified in a tourist routing scenario. The results demonstrated, in real world situations, the validity of the route planning carried out in the model.

Distinction between Externally vs. Internally Guided Decision-Making: Operational Differences, Meta-Analytical Comparisons and Their Theoretical Implications

PubMed Central

Nakao, Takashi; Ohira, Hideki; Northoff, Georg

2012-01-01

Most experimental studies of decision-making have specifically examined situations in which a single less-predictable correct answer exists (externally guided decision-making under uncertainty). Along with such externally guided decision-making, there are instances of decision-making in which no correct answer based on external circumstances is available for the subject (internally guided decision-making). Such decisions are usually made in the context of moral decision-making as well as in preference judgment, where the answer depends on the subject’s own, i.e., internal, preferences rather than on external, i.e., circumstantial, criteria. The neuronal and psychological mechanisms that allow guidance of decisions based on more internally oriented criteria in the absence of external ones remain unclear. This study was undertaken to compare decision-making of these two kinds empirically and theoretically. First, we reviewed studies of decision-making to clarify experimental–operational differences between externally guided and internally guided decision-making. Second, using multi-level kernel density analysis, a whole-brain-based quantitative meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies was performed. Our meta-analysis revealed that the neural network used predominantly for internally guided decision-making differs from that for externally guided decision-making under uncertainty. This result suggests that studying only externally guided decision-making under uncertainty is insufficient to account for decision-making processes in the brain. Finally, based on the review and results of the meta-analysis, we discuss the differences and relations between decision-making of these two types in terms of their operational, neuronal, and theoretical characteristics. PMID:22403525

Comparison of Multi-Criteria Decision Support Methods (AHP, TOPSIS, SAW & PROMENTHEE) for Employee Placement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widianta, M. M. D.; Rizaldi, T.; Setyohadi, D. P. S.; Riskiawan, H. Y.

2018-01-01

The right decision in placing employees in an appropriate position in a company will support the quality of management and will have an impact on improving the quality of human resources of the company. Such decision-making can be assisted by an approach through the Decision Support System (DSS) to improve accuracy in the employee placement process. The purpose of this paper is to compare the four methods of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), ie Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Of Evaluations (PROMETHEE) for the application of employee placement in accordance with predetermined criteria. The ranking results and the accuracy level obtained from each method are different depending on the different scaling and weighting processes in each method.

Sequential decision tree using the analytic hierarchy process for decision support in rectal cancer.

PubMed

Suner, Aslı; Çelikoğlu, Can Cengiz; Dicle, Oğuz; Sökmen, Selman

2012-09-01

The aim of the study is to determine the most appropriate method for construction of a sequential decision tree in the management of rectal cancer, using various patient-specific criteria and treatments such as surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the priorities of variables. Relevant criteria used in two decision steps and their relative priorities were established by a panel of five general surgeons. Data were collected via a web-based application and analyzed using the "Expert Choice" software specifically developed for the AHP. Consistency ratios in the AHP method were calculated for each set of judgments, and the priorities of sub-criteria were determined. A sequential decision tree was constructed for the best treatment decision process, using priorities determined by the AHP method. Consistency ratios in the AHP method were calculated for each decision step, and the judgments were considered consistent. The tumor-related criterion "presence of perforation" (0.331) and the patient-surgeon-related criterion "surgeon's experience" (0.630) had the highest priority in the first decision step. In the second decision step, the tumor-related criterion "the stage of the disease" (0.230) and the patient-surgeon-related criterion "surgeon's experience" (0.281) were the paramount criteria. The results showed some variation in the ranking of criteria between the decision steps. In the second decision step, for instance, the tumor-related criterion "presence of perforation" was just the fifth. The consistency of decision support systems largely depends on the quality of the underlying decision tree. When several choices and variables have to be considered in a decision, it is very important to determine priorities. The AHP method seems to be effective for this purpose. The decision algorithm developed by this method is more realistic and will improve the quality of the decision tree. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Models of expert assessments and their study in problems of choice and decision-making in management of motor transport processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belokurov, V. P.; Belokurov, S. V.; Korablev, R. A.; Shtepa, A. A.

2018-05-01

The article deals with decision making concerning transport tasks on search iterations in the management of motor transport processes. An optimal selection of the best option for specific situations is suggested in the management of complex multi-criteria transport processes.

Putting Bandits into Context: How Function Learning Supports Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Eric; Konstantinidis, Emmanouil; Speekenbrink, Maarten

2018-01-01

The authors introduce the contextual multi-armed bandit task as a framework to investigate learning and decision making in uncertain environments. In this novel paradigm, participants repeatedly choose between multiple options in order to maximize their rewards. The options are described by a number of contextual features which are predictive of…

Decision Making for Pap Testing among Pacific Islander Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiss, Jie W.; Mouttapa, Michele; Sablan-Santos, Lola; DeGuzman Lacsamana, Jasmine; Quitugua, Lourdes; Park Tanjasiri, Sora

2016-01-01

This study employed a Multi-Attribute Utility (MAU) model to examine the Pap test decision-making process among Pacific Islanders (PI) residing in Southern California. A total of 585 PI women were recruited through social networks from Samoan and Tongan churches, and Chamorro family clans. A questionnaire assessed Pap test knowledge, beliefs and…

Near-Earth object hazardous impact: A Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach.

PubMed

Sánchez-Lozano, J M; Fernández-Martínez, M

2016-11-16

The impact of a near-Earth object (NEO) may release large amounts of energy and cause serious damage. Several NEO hazard studies conducted over the past few years provide forecasts, impact probabilities and assessment ratings, such as the Torino and Palermo scales. These high-risk NEO assessments involve several criteria, including impact energy, mass, and absolute magnitude. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to classify hazardous NEOs. Our approach applies a combination of two methods from a widely utilized decision making theory. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is employed to determine the criteria weights, which influence the decision making, and the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to obtain a ranking of alternatives (potentially hazardous NEOs). In addition, NEO datasets provided by the NASA Near-Earth Object Program are utilized. This approach allows the classification of NEOs by descending order of their TOPSIS ratio, a single quantity that contains all of the relevant information for each object.

Experimental Evaluation of Suitability of Selected Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods for Large-Scale Agent-Based Simulations.

PubMed

Tučník, Petr; Bureš, Vladimír

2016-01-01

Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can be formally implemented by various methods. This study compares suitability of four selected MCDM methods, namely WPM, TOPSIS, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, for future applications in agent-based computational economic (ACE) models of larger scale (i.e., over 10 000 agents in one geographical region). These four MCDM methods were selected according to their appropriateness for computational processing in ACE applications. Tests of the selected methods were conducted on four hardware configurations. For each method, 100 tests were performed, which represented one testing iteration. With four testing iterations conducted on each hardware setting and separated testing of all configurations with the-server parameter de/activated, altogether, 12800 data points were collected and consequently analyzed. An illustrational decision-making scenario was used which allows the mutual comparison of all of the selected decision making methods. Our test results suggest that although all methods are convenient and can be used in practice, the VIKOR method accomplished the tests with the best results and thus can be recommended as the most suitable for simulations of large-scale agent-based models.

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Sampling and assessment accuracy in mate choice: a random-walk model of information processing in mating decision.

PubMed

Castellano, Sergio; Cermelli, Paolo

2011-04-07

Mate choice depends on mating preferences and on the manner in which mate-quality information is acquired and used to make decisions. We present a model that describes how these two components of mating decision interact with each other during a comparative evaluation of prospective mates. The model, with its well-explored precedents in psychology and neurophysiology, assumes that decisions are made by the integration over time of noisy information until a stopping-rule criterion is reached. Due to this informational approach, the model builds a coherent theoretical framework for developing an integrated view of functions and mechanisms of mating decisions. From a functional point of view, the model allows us to investigate speed-accuracy tradeoffs in mating decision at both population and individual levels. It shows that, under strong time constraints, decision makers are expected to make fast and frugal decisions and to optimally trade off population-sampling accuracy (i.e. the number of sampled males) against individual-assessment accuracy (i.e. the time spent for evaluating each mate). From the proximate-mechanism point of view, the model makes testable predictions on the interactions of mating preferences and choosiness in different contexts and it might be of compelling empirical utility for a context-independent description of mating preference strength. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scoring and setting pass/fail standards for an essay certification examination in nurse-midwifery.

PubMed

Fullerton, J T; Greener, D L; Gross, L J

1992-03-01

Examination for certification or licensure of health professionals (credentialing) in the United States is almost exclusively of the multiple choice format. The certification examination for entry into the practice of the profession of nurse-midwifery has, however, used a modified essay format throughout its twenty-year history. The examination has recently undergone a revision in the method for score interpretation and for pass/fail decision-making. The revised method, described in this paper, has important implications for all health professional credentialing agencies which use modified essay, oral or practical methods of competency assessment. This paper describes criterion-referenced scoring, the process of constructing the essay items, the methods for assuring validity and reliability for the examination, and the manner of standard setting. In addition, two alternative methods for increasing the validity of the pass/fail decision are evaluated, and the rationale for decision-making about marginal candidates is described.

Shared decision-making – transferring research into practice: the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.

2008-01-01

Objective To illustrate how the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be used to promote shared decision-making and enhance clinician-patient communication. Methods Tutorial review. Results The AHP promotes shared decision making by creating a framework that is used to define the decision, summarize the information available, prioritize information needs, elicit preferences and values, and foster meaningful communication among decision stakeholders. Conclusions The AHP and related multi-criteria methods have the potential for improving the quality of clinical decisions and overcoming current barriers to implementing shared decision making in busy clinical settings. Further research is needed to determine the best way to implement these tools and to determine their effectiveness. Practice Implications Many clinical decisions involve preference-based trade-offs between competing risks and benefits. The AHP is a well-developed method that provides a practical approach for improving patient-provider communication, clinical decision-making, and the quality of patient care in these situations. PMID:18760559

An analytic expression for the sheath criterion in magnetized plasmas with multi-charged ion species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hatami, M. M., E-mail: m-hatami@kntu.ac.ir

2015-04-15

The generalized Bohm criterion in magnetized multi-component plasmas consisting of multi-charged positive and negative ion species and electrons is analytically investigated by using the hydrodynamic model. It is assumed that the electrons and negative ion density distributions are the Boltzmann distribution with different temperatures and the positive ions enter into the sheath region obliquely. Our results show that the positive and negative ion temperatures, the orientation of the applied magnetic field and the charge number of positive and negative ions strongly affect the Bohm criterion in these multi-component plasmas. To determine the validity of our derived generalized Bohm criterion, itmore » reduced to some familiar physical condition and it is shown that monotonically reduction of the positive ion density distribution leading to the sheath formation occurs only when entrance velocity of ion into the sheath satisfies the obtained Bohm criterion. Also, as a practical application of the obtained Bohm criterion, effects of the ionic temperature and concentration as well as magnetic field on the behavior of the charged particle density distributions and so the sheath thickness of a magnetized plasma consisting of electrons and singly charged positive and negative ion species are studied numerically.« less

Possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic aggregation operators and their application to multi-criteria group decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şahin, Rıdvan; Liu, Peide

2017-07-01

Simplified neutrosophic set (SNS) is an appropriate tool used to express the incompleteness, indeterminacy and uncertainty of the evaluation objects in decision-making process. In this study, we define the concept of possibility SNS including two types of information such as the neutrosophic performance provided from the evaluation objects and its possibility degree using a value ranging from zero to one. Then by extending the existing neutrosophic information, aggregation models for SNSs that cannot be used effectively to fusion the two different information described above, we propose two novel neutrosophic aggregation operators considering possibility, which are named as a possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted arithmetic averaging operator and possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted geometric averaging operator, and discuss their properties. Moreover, we develop a useful method based on the proposed aggregation operators for solving a multi-criteria group decision-making problem with the possibility simplified neutrosophic information, in which the weights of decision-makers and decision criteria are calculated based on entropy measure. Finally, a practical example is utilised to show the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

PubMed

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

2013-09-01

Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

PubMed

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

PubMed Central

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

Integrating evidence and individual preferences using a web-based multi-criteria decision analytic tool: an application to prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Dowie, Jack; Henderson, Joan; Bayram, Clare; Britt, Helena; Howard, Kirsten

2011-01-01

Annalisa© (AL) is a web-based decision-support template grounded in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It uses a simple expected value algorithm to calculate a score for each option by taking into account the individual's preferences for different criteria (as importance weights) and the evidence of the performance of each option on each criterion. Given the uncertainty surrounding the trade offs between benefits and harms for prostate cancer screening, this topic was chosen as the vehicle to introduce this new decision-support template. The aim of the study was to introduce a new decision-support template, AL, and to develop and pilot a decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening using it. A decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening (ALProst) was implemented in the AL template. ALProst incorporated evidence on both the benefits and the potential harms of prostate cancer screening (the 'attributes') from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Individual weights for each attribute were elicited during interviews. By combining the individual's preferences and the evidence, the best option for the user was identified on the basis of quantified scores. A convenience sample of computer-proficient primary-care physicians (general practitioners [GPs] in Australia) from the Sydney Metropolitan area (Australia) were invited to complete a face-to-face interview involving the decision-support tool. Preference for undergoing prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer, both personally and for their patients, was sought prior to seeing the tool. After gaining hands-on experience with using the tool, GPs were asked to comment on the merits of the template and the tool. Preference for presenting the benefits of prostate cancer screening as the relative or absolute risk reduction in prostate cancer-specific mortality was also sought. Of 60 GPs approached, ten (six men and four women) completed an interview (16.7% response rate). Most GPs agreed/strongly agreed with positive statements about the ease with which they could use AL (seven GPs), and understand the information in, and format of, AL (nine and eight, respectively). Eight agreed/strongly agreed that ALProst would be a useful tool for discussing prostate cancer screening with their patients. GPs were also asked to nominate difficult clinical decisions that they, and their patients, have had to make; responses included cancer screening (including prostate cancer); treating patients with multiple illnesses/diseases; managing multiple cardiovascular disease risk factors; and managing patients who are receiving multiple medications. The common element was the need to consider multiple factors in making these complex decisions. AL is distinguishable from most other decision-support templates available today by its underlying conceptual framework, MCDA, and its power to combine individual preferences with evidence to derive the best option for the user quantitatively. It therefore becomes potentially useful for all decisions at all levels in the healthcare system. Moreover, it will provide a universal graphic 'language' that can overcome the burden to patients of encountering a plethora of widely varying decision aids for different conditions during their lifetime.

The development of a multi-criteria decision analysis aid to help with contraceptive choices: My Contraception Tool.

PubMed

French, Rebecca S; Cowan, Frances M; Wellings, Kaye; Dowie, Jack

2014-04-01

My Contraception Tool (MCT) applies the principles of multi-criteria decision analysis to the choice of contraceptive method. Its purpose is to make the decision-making process transparent to the user and to suggest a method to them based on their own preferences. The contraceptive option that emerges as optimal from the analysis takes account of the probability of a range of outcomes and the relative weight ascribed to them by the user. The development of MCT was a collaborative project between London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Brook, FPA and Maldaba Ltd. MCT is available online via the Brook and FPA websites. In this article we describe MCT's development and how it works. Further work is needed to assess the impact it has on decision quality and contraceptive behaviour.

Improved Multi-Axial, Temperature and Time Dependent (MATT) Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, D. E.; Anderson, G. L.; Macon, D. J.

2002-01-01

An extensive effort has recently been completed by the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle program to completely characterize the effects of multi-axial loading, temperature and time on the failure characteristics of three filled epoxy adhesives (TIGA 321, EA913NA, EA946). As part of this effort, a single general failure criterion was developed that accounted for these effects simultaneously. This model was named the Multi- Axial, Temperature, and Time Dependent or MATT failure criterion. Due to the intricate nature of the failure criterion, some parameters were required to be calculated using complex equations or numerical methods. This paper documents some simple but accurate modifications to the failure criterion to allow for calculations of failure conditions without complex equations or numerical techniques.

An improved hybrid multi-criteria/multidimensional model for strategic industrial location selection: Casablanca industrial zones as a case study.

PubMed

Boutkhoum, Omar; Hanine, Mohamed; Agouti, Tarik; Tikniouine, Abdessadek

2015-01-01

In this paper, we examine the issue of strategic industrial location selection in uncertain decision making environments for implanting new industrial corporation. In fact, the industrial location issue is typically considered as a crucial factor in business research field which is related to many calculations about natural resources, distributors, suppliers, customers, and most other things. Based on the integration of environmental, economic and social decisive elements of sustainable development, this paper presents a hybrid decision making model combining fuzzy multi-criteria analysis with analytical capabilities that OLAP systems can provide for successful and optimal industrial location selection. The proposed model mainly consists in three stages. In the first stage, a decision-making committee has been established to identify the evaluation criteria impacting the location selection process. In the second stage, we develop fuzzy AHP software based on the extent analysis method to assign the importance weights to the selected criteria, which allows us to model the linguistic vagueness, ambiguity, and incomplete knowledge. In the last stage, OLAP analysis integrated with multi-criteria analysis employs these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate, rank and select the strategic industrial location for implanting new business corporation in the region of Casablanca, Morocco. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of criteria weights and the preferences given by decision makers on the final rankings of strategic industrial locations.

Decision Criterion Dynamics in Animals Performing an Auditory Detection Task

PubMed Central

Mill, Robert W.; Alves-Pinto, Ana; Sumner, Christian J.

2014-01-01

Classical signal detection theory attributes bias in perceptual decisions to a threshold criterion, against which sensory excitation is compared. The optimal criterion setting depends on the signal level, which may vary over time, and about which the subject is naïve. Consequently, the subject must optimise its threshold by responding appropriately to feedback. Here a series of experiments was conducted, and a computational model applied, to determine how the decision bias of the ferret in an auditory signal detection task tracks changes in the stimulus level. The time scales of criterion dynamics were investigated by means of a yes-no signal-in-noise detection task, in which trials were grouped into blocks that alternately contained easy- and hard-to-detect signals. The responses of the ferrets implied both long- and short-term criterion dynamics. The animals exhibited a bias in favour of responding “yes” during blocks of harder trials, and vice versa. Moreover, the outcome of each single trial had a strong influence on the decision at the next trial. We demonstrate that the single-trial and block-level changes in bias are a manifestation of the same criterion update policy by fitting a model, in which the criterion is shifted by fixed amounts according to the outcome of the previous trial and decays strongly towards a resting value. The apparent block-level stabilisation of bias arises as the probabilities of outcomes and shifts on single trials mutually interact to establish equilibrium. To gain an intuition into how stable criterion distributions arise from specific parameter sets we develop a Markov model which accounts for the dynamic effects of criterion shifts. Our approach provides a framework for investigating the dynamics of decisions at different timescales in other species (e.g., humans) and in other psychological domains (e.g., vision, memory). PMID:25485733

Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cetiner, Sacit M; Kisner, Roger A; Muhlheim, Michael David

2015-07-01

Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or nomore » human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The integration of deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses (i.e., neutronics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulics) and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermal-hydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies.« less

DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS.

PubMed

Gilabert-Perramon, Antoni; Torrent-Farnell, Josep; Catalan, Arancha; Prat, Alba; Fontanet, Manel; Puig-Peiró, Ruth; Merino-Montero, Sandra; Khoury, Hanane; Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Badia, Xavier

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service). The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test. The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., "unmet needs" or "nonmedical costs"). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., "Mandate and scope of healthcare system", "Environmental impact") or adapted ("population priorities and access") for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: "disease severity", "unmet needs" and "comparative effectiveness", while the "size of the population" had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test-retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime. MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

On the dynamic nature of response criterion in recognition memory: effects of base rate, awareness, and feedback.

PubMed

Rhodes, Matthew G; Jacoby, Larry L

2007-03-01

The authors examined whether participants can shift their criterion for recognition decisions in response to the probability that an item was previously studied. Participants in 3 experiments were given recognition tests in which the probability that an item was studied was correlated with its location during the test. Results from all 3 experiments indicated that participants' response criteria were sensitive to the probability that an item was previously studied and that shifts in criterion were robust. In addition, awareness of the bases for criterion shifts and feedback on performance were key factors contributing to the observed shifts in decision criteria. These data suggest that decision processes can operate in a dynamic fashion, shifting from item to item.

Multiple stakeholders in multi-criteria decision-making in the context of Municipal Solid Waste Management: A review.

PubMed

Soltani, Atousa; Hewage, Kasun; Reza, Bahareh; Sadiq, Rehan

2015-01-01

Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is a complicated process that involves multiple environmental and socio-economic criteria. Decision-makers look for decision support frameworks that can guide in defining alternatives, relevant criteria and their weights, and finding a suitable solution. In addition, decision-making in MSWM problems such as finding proper waste treatment locations or strategies often requires multiple stakeholders such as government, municipalities, industries, experts, and/or general public to get involved. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is the most popular framework employed in previous studies on MSWM; MCDA methods help multiple stakeholders evaluate the often conflicting criteria, communicate their different preferences, and rank or prioritize MSWM strategies to finally agree on some elements of these strategies and make an applicable decision. This paper reviews and brings together research on the application of MCDA for solving MSWM problems with more focus on the studies that have considered multiple stakeholders and offers solutions for such problems. Results of this study show that AHP is the most common approach in consideration of multiple stakeholders and experts and governments/municipalities are the most common participants in these studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Is it possible to determine the competency of a patient?].

PubMed

Payne, J

2004-01-01

The contemporary medicine goes through a deep transition with regard particularly to humanization; modern ethics has effected sundry changes in attitudes to patients and one of them is the edification of her/his right to make choices about her/himself. The concept of autonomy however meets the problem of assessment of the level to which the concrete patient is capable of making decision due to various impairments and strains. One possible criterion, which is compliant with traditional philosophy and which is based on rationality is suggested here.

Multiple stakeholders in multi-criteria decision-making in the context of Municipal Solid Waste Management: A review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soltani, Atousa; Hewage, Kasun; Reza, Bahareh

2015-01-15

Highlights: • We review Municipal Solid Waste Management studies with focus on multiple stakeholders. • We focus on studies with multi-criteria decision analysis methods and discover their trends. • Most studies do not offer solutions for situations where stakeholders compete for more benefits or have unequal voting powers. • Governments and experts are the most participated stakeholders and AHP is the most dominant method. - Abstract: Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is a complicated process that involves multiple environmental and socio-economic criteria. Decision-makers look for decision support frameworks that can guide in defining alternatives, relevant criteria and their weights, andmore » finding a suitable solution. In addition, decision-making in MSWM problems such as finding proper waste treatment locations or strategies often requires multiple stakeholders such as government, municipalities, industries, experts, and/or general public to get involved. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is the most popular framework employed in previous studies on MSWM; MCDA methods help multiple stakeholders evaluate the often conflicting criteria, communicate their different preferences, and rank or prioritize MSWM strategies to finally agree on some elements of these strategies and make an applicable decision. This paper reviews and brings together research on the application of MCDA for solving MSWM problems with more focus on the studies that have considered multiple stakeholders and offers solutions for such problems. Results of this study show that AHP is the most common approach in consideration of multiple stakeholders and experts and governments/municipalities are the most common participants in these studies.« less

Current Scientific Approaches to Decision Making in Complex Systems. 3. Volume 2. Conference Position Papers

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-01

Search: Traffic on a Multi- dimensional Structure R. i. Atkin, University of Essex, England b. Annex. Volume 3: Decision: Foundation and Practice Brian R...Gaines, University of Essex, England Volume 4: Competing Modes of Cognition and Communication in Simulated and Self-Reflective Systems Stein Braten... University of Oslo, Norway Volume 5: On the Spontaneous Emergence of Decision Making Constraints in Communicating Hierarchical Structure John S

A SMALL FISH MULTI-ENDPOINT BIOASSAY FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF WATER CONTAMINANTS PRESENT IN LOW CONCENTRATIONS: MEDAKA AND DICHLOROACETIC ACID

EPA Science Inventory

In regulating the safety of water under SDWA and the CWA, the EPA makes decisions on what chemical contaminants to regulate and at what levels. To make these decisions the EPA needs hazard identification and dose-response information. Current methods that rely on rodent models fo...

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Concise evaluation of decision aids.

PubMed

Stalmeier, Peep F M; Roosmalen, Marielle S

2009-01-01

Decision aids purport to help patients make treatment related choices. Several instruments exist to evaluate decision aids. Our aim is to compare the responsiveness of several instruments. Two different decision aids were randomized in patients at high risk for breast and ovarian cancer. Treatment choices were between prophylactic surgery and screening. Effect sizes were calculated to compare the responsiveness of the measures. One decision aid was randomized in 390 women, the other in 91 ensuing mutation carriers. Three factors were identified related to Information, Well-being and Decision Making. Within each factor, single item measures were as responsive as multi-item measures. Four single items, 'the amount of information received for decision making,' 'strength of preference,' 'I weighed the pros and cons,' and 'General Health,' were adequately responsive to the decision aids. These items might be considered for inclusion in questionnaires to evaluate decision aids.

Multi-criteria decision analysis of breast cancer control in low- and middle- income countries: development of a rating tool for policy makers.

PubMed

Venhorst, Kristie; Zelle, Sten G; Tromp, Noor; Lauer, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a rating tool for policy makers to prioritize breast cancer interventions in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), based on a simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The definition and identification of criteria play a key role in MCDA, and our rating tool could be used as part of a broader priority setting exercise in a local setting. This tool may contribute to a more transparent priority-setting process and fairer decision-making in future breast cancer policy development. First, an expert panel (n = 5) discussed key considerations for tool development. A literature review followed to inventory all relevant criteria and construct an initial set of criteria. A Delphi study was then performed and questionnaires used to discuss a final list of criteria with clear definitions and potential scoring scales. For this Delphi study, multiple breast cancer policy and priority-setting experts from different LMICs were selected and invited by the World Health Organization. Fifteen international experts participated in all three Delphi rounds to assess and evaluate each criterion. This study resulted in a preliminary rating tool for assessing breast cancer interventions in LMICs. The tool consists of 10 carefully crafted criteria (effectiveness, quality of the evidence, magnitude of individual health impact, acceptability, cost-effectiveness, technical complexity, affordability, safety, geographical coverage, and accessibility), with clear definitions and potential scoring scales. This study describes the development of a rating tool to assess breast cancer interventions in LMICs. Our tool can offer supporting knowledge for the use or development of rating tools as part of a broader (MCDA based) priority setting exercise in local settings. Further steps for improving the tool are proposed and should lead to its useful adoption in LMICs.

Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garfi, M.; Tondelli, S.; Bonoli, A.

2009-10-15

The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders:more » The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.« less

ELICIT: An alternative imprecise weight elicitation technique for use in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare

PubMed Central

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Sanogo, Vassiki; Moussa, Kouame Richard

2015-01-01

Objective In this paper, the readers are introduced to ELICIT, an imprecise weight elicitation technique for multicriteria decision analysis for healthcare. Methods The application of ELICIT consists of two steps: the rank ordering of evaluation criteria based on decision-makers’ (DMs) preferences using the principal component analysis; and the estimation of criteria weights and their descriptive statistics using the variable interdependent analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The application of ELICIT is illustrated with a hypothetical case study involving the elicitation of weights for five criteria used to select the best device for eye surgery. Results The criteria were ranked from 1–5, based on a strict preference relationship established by the DMs. For each criterion, the deterministic weight was estimated as well as the standard deviation and 95% credibility interval. Conclusions ELICIT is appropriate in situations where only ordinal DMs’ preferences are available to elicit decision criteria weights. PMID:26361235

Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

PubMed

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Rational decision making in medicine: Implications for overuse and underuse.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Elqayam, Shira; Dale, William

2018-06-01

In spite of substantial spending and resource utilization, today's health care remains characterized by poor outcomes, largely due to overuse (overtesting/overtreatment) or underuse (undertesting/undertreatment) of health services. To a significant extent, this is a consequence of low-quality decision making that appears to violate various rationality criteria. Such suboptimal decision making is considered a leading cause of death and is responsible for more than 80% of health expenses. In this paper, we address the issue of overuse or underuse of health care interventions from the perspective of rational choice theory. We show that what is considered rational under one decision theory may not be considered rational under a different theory. We posit that the questions and concerns regarding both underuse and overuse have to be addressed within a specific theoretical framework. The applicable rationality criterion, and thus the "appropriateness" of health care delivery choices, depends on theory selection that is appropriate to specific clinical situations. We provide a number of illustrations showing how the choice of theoretical framework influences both our policy and individual decision making. We also highlight the practical implications of our analysis for the current efforts to measure the quality of care and link such measurements to the financing of health care services. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of fuzzy AHP method to IOCG prospectivity mapping: A case study in Taherabad prospecting area, eastern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Ali; Karimpour, Mohammad Hassan; Ghaderi, Majid

2014-12-01

Using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique, we propose a method for mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) which is commonly used for exploration of mineral deposits. The fuzzy AHP is a popular technique which has been applied for multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. In this paper we used fuzzy AHP and geospatial information system (GIS) to generate prospectivity model for Iron Oxide Copper-Gold (IOCG) mineralization on the basis of its conceptual model and geo-evidence layers derived from geological, geochemical, and geophysical data in Taherabad area, eastern Iran. The FuzzyAHP was used to determine the weights belonging to each criterion. Three geoscientists knowledge on exploration of IOCG-type mineralization have been applied to assign weights to evidence layers in fuzzy AHP MPM approach. After assigning normalized weights to all evidential layers, fuzzy operator was applied to integrate weighted evidence layers. Finally for evaluating the ability of the applied approach to delineate reliable target areas, locations of known mineral deposits in the study area were used. The results demonstrate the acceptable outcomes for IOCG exploration.

Sinkhole Susceptibility Analysis for Karapinar/konya via Multi Criteria Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarı, F.

2017-11-01

Sinkholes are being a natural hazard which threads economic and human life. Sudden occurrence characteristic of sinkholes make it unable to escape. There are a lot of factor that activate sinkholes such as geology, irrigation, land use and human related factors. In Karapınar, Konya, there are over 200 sinkholes and this count is getting increased in recent years. Especially active agricultural lands, decreasing ground water level, extreme irrigation by 55267 water wells increase the risk factor of Karapınar. Nowadays, considering the economic contribution of Karapınar to Turkey economy in the field of agriculture, solar energy fields and thermal reactor which will be planned in next few years, prediction of sinkholes and searching for preventation ways are being more important issue. In this study, sinkhole susceptibility map via AHP was carried out for Karapınar in Konya. Slope, land use, elevation, geology, water wells, distance to roads and settlements criteria are included to determine susceptibility. The weights are calculated with AHP for each criterion and generated susceptibility map is overlapped with existing sinkholes. Suggestions and results are shared for this study.

Framing discrimination: effects of inclusion versus exclusion mind-sets on stereotypic judgments.

PubMed

Hugenberg, Kurt; Bodenhausen, Galen V; McLain, Melissa

2006-12-01

Three studies investigated how inclusion versus exclusion strategies differentially lead to stereotypic decisions. In inclusion strategies, suitable targets are selected from a list of candidates, whereas in exclusion strategies, unsuitable candidates are eliminated. Across 2 separate target domains (Study 1: male and female politicians; Studies 2 and 3: African American and European American basketball players), exclusion strategies, as compared with inclusion strategies, elicited higher levels of both sensitivity stereotyping (i.e., greater difficulty distinguishing among members of stereotyped groups) and criterion stereotyping (i.e., setting different decision thresholds for judging members of different groups; see M. R. Banaji & A. G. Greenwald, 1995). Thus, the strategy used during decision making can influence the final decision via 2 theoretically distinct stereotyping mechanisms. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Failure Criterion For Isotropic Time Dependent Materials Which Accounts for Multi-Axial Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, D. E.; Anderson, G. L.; Macon, D. J.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle program has recently conducted testing to characterize the effects of multi-axial loading, temperature and time on the failure characteristics of TIGA321, EA913NA, EA946 (three filled epoxy adhesives). From the test data a "Multi-Axial, Temperature, and Time Dependent" or MATT failure criterion was developed. It is shown that this criterion simplifies, for constant load and constant load rate conditions, into a form that can be easily used for stress analysis. Failure for TIGA321 and EA913NA are characterized below their glass transition temperature. Failure for EA946 is characterized for conditions that pass through its glass transition. The MATT failure criterion is shown to be accurate for a wide range of conditions for these adhesives.

Balancing costs and benefits at different stages of medical innovation: a systematic review of Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).

PubMed

Wahlster, Philip; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Kriza, Christine; Niederländer, Charlotte; Kolominsky-Rabas, Peter

2015-07-09

The diffusion of health technologies from translational research to reimbursement depends on several factors included the results of health economic analysis. Recent research identified several flaws in health economic concepts. Additionally, the heterogeneous viewpoints of participating stakeholders are rarely systematically addressed in current decision-making. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) provides an opportunity to tackle these issues. The objective of this study was to review applications of MCDA methods in decisions addressing the trade-off between costs and benefits. Using basic steps of the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic review of the healthcare literature was performed to identify original research articles from January 1990 to April 2014. Medline, PubMed, Springer Link and specific journals were searched. Using predefined categories, bibliographic records were systematically extracted regarding the type of policy applications, MCDA methodology, criteria used and their definitions. 22 studies were included in the analysis. 15 studies (68 %) used direct MCDA approaches and seven studies (32 %) used preference elicitation approaches. Four studies (19 %) focused on technologies in the early innovation process. The majority (18 studies - 81 %) examined reimbursement decisions. Decision criteria used in studies were obtained from the literature research and context-specific studies, expert opinions, and group discussions. The number of criteria ranged between three up to 15. The most frequently used criteria were health outcomes (73 %), disease impact (59 %), and implementation of the intervention (40 %). Economic criteria included cost-effectiveness criteria (14 studies, 64 %), and total costs/budget impact of an intervention (eight studies, 36 %). The process of including economic aspects is very different among studies. Some studies directly compare costs with other criteria while some include economic consideration in a second step. In early innovation processes, MCDA can provide information about stakeholder preferences as well as evidence needs in further development. However, only a minority of these studies include economic features due to the limited evidence. The most important economic criterion cost-effectiveness should not be included from a technical perspective as it is already a composite of costs and benefit. There is a significant lack of consensus in methodology employed by the various studies which highlights the need for guidance on application of MCDA at specific phases of an innovation.

Brain areas consistently linked to individual differences in perceptual decision-making in younger as well as older adults before and after training.

PubMed

Kühn, Simone; Schmiedek, Florian; Schott, Björn; Ratcliff, Roger; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Düzel, Emrah; Lindenberger, Ulman; Lövden, Martin

2011-09-01

Perceptual decision-making performance depends on several cognitive and neural processes. Here, we fit Ratcliff's diffusion model to accuracy data and reaction-time distributions from one numerical and one verbal two-choice perceptual-decision task to deconstruct these performance measures into the rate of evidence accumulation (i.e., drift rate), response criterion setting (i.e., boundary separation), and peripheral aspects of performance (i.e., nondecision time). These theoretical processes are then related to individual differences in brain activation by means of multiple regression. The sample consisted of 24 younger and 15 older adults performing the task in fMRI before and after 100 daily 1-hr behavioral training sessions in a multitude of cognitive tasks. Results showed that individual differences in boundary separation were related to striatal activity, whereas differences in drift rate were related to activity in the inferior parietal lobe. These associations were not significantly modified by adult age or perceptual expertise. We conclude that the striatum is involved in regulating response thresholds, whereas the inferior parietal lobe might represent decision-making evidence related to letters and numbers.

Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

PubMed

Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

2008-11-01

In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

2016-04-01

This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

A framework for multi-stakeholder decision-making and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We propose a decision-making framework to compute compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives. In our setting, we shape the stakeholder dis-satisfaction distribution by solving a conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) minimization problem. The CVaR problem is parameterized by a probability level that shapes the tail of the dissatisfaction distribution. The proposed approach allows us to compute a family of compromise solutions and generalizes multi-stakeholder settings previously proposed in the literature that minimize average and worst-case dissatisfactions. We use the concept of the CVaR norm to give a geometric interpretation to this problem +and use the properties of this norm to prove that the CVaR minimization problem yields Pareto optimal solutions for any choice of the probability level. We discuss a broad range of potential applications of the framework that involve complex decision-making processes. We demonstrate the developments using a biowaste facility location case study in which we seek to balance stakeholder priorities on transportation, safety, water quality, and capital costs. This manuscript describes the methodology of a new decision-making framework that computes compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives as needed for SHC Decision Science and Support Tools project. A biowaste facility location is employed as the case study

Solving multi-objective optimization problems in conservation with the reference point method

PubMed Central

Dujardin, Yann; Chadès, Iadine

2018-01-01

Managing the biodiversity extinction crisis requires wise decision-making processes able to account for the limited resources available. In most decision problems in conservation biology, several conflicting objectives have to be taken into account. Most methods used in conservation either provide suboptimal solutions or use strong assumptions about the decision-maker’s preferences. Our paper reviews some of the existing approaches to solve multi-objective decision problems and presents new multi-objective linear programming formulations of two multi-objective optimization problems in conservation, allowing the use of a reference point approach. Reference point approaches solve multi-objective optimization problems by interactively representing the preferences of the decision-maker with a point in the criteria (objectives) space, called the reference point. We modelled and solved the following two problems in conservation: a dynamic multi-species management problem under uncertainty and a spatial allocation resource management problem. Results show that the reference point method outperforms classic methods while illustrating the use of an interactive methodology for solving combinatorial problems with multiple objectives. The method is general and can be adapted to a wide range of ecological combinatorial problems. PMID:29293650

The Impact of the Mode of Thought in Complex Decisions: Intuitive Decisions are Better

PubMed Central

Usher, Marius; Russo, Zohar; Weyers, Mark; Brauner, Ran; Zakay, Dan

2011-01-01

A number of recent studies have reported that decision quality is enhanced under conditions of inattention or distraction (unconscious thought; Dijksterhuis, 2004; Dijksterhuis and Nordgren, 2006; Dijksterhuis et al., 2006). These reports have generated considerable controversy, for both experimental (problems of replication) and theoretical reasons (interpretation). Here we report the results of four experiments. The first experiment replicates the unconscious thought effect, under conditions that validate and control the subjective criterion of decision quality. The second and third experiments examine the impact of a mode of thought manipulation (without distraction) on decision quality in immediate decisions. Here we find that intuitive or affective manipulations improve decision quality compared to analytic/deliberation manipulations. The fourth experiment combines the two methods (distraction and mode of thought manipulations) and demonstrates enhanced decision quality, in a situation that attempts to preserve ecological validity. The results are interpreted within a framework that is based on two interacting subsystems of decision-making: an affective/intuition based system and an analytic/deliberation system. PMID:21716605

A prospective analysis of implementation of multi-disciplinary team decisions in breast cancer.

PubMed

English, Rachel; Metcalfe, Chris; Day, James; Rayter, Zenon; Blazeby, Jane M

2012-09-01

Multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs) management of patients with cancer is mandatory in the United Kingdom, and auditing team decision-making by examining rates of decision implementation and reasons for nonimplementation may inform this practice. Consecutive breast cancer MDT decisions, subsequent decision implementation, and reasons for nonimplementation were prospectively recorded. Factors associated with nonimplementation of the MDT decision were analyzed with logistic regression. Of 289 consecutive MDT decisions involving 210 women, 20 (6.9%, 95% CIs 4.3%-10.5%) were not implemented. Most changed MDT decisions did so because of patient preferences (n = 13, 65%), with the discovery of new clinical information (n = 3) and individual doctor's views (n = 4) also leading to decision nonimplementation. MDT decisions were significantly less likely to be adhered to in patients with confirmed malignant disease compared to those with benign or 'unknown' disease categories (p < 0.001) and MDT decisions in older patients were significantly more likely not to be implemented than in younger patients (p = 0.002). Auditing nonimplementation of MDT recommendations and examining reasons for changed decisions is a useful process to monitor team performance and to identify factors that need more attention during the MDT meeting to ensure that the process makes optimal patient centered decisions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Developing a Software for Fuzzy Group Decision Support System: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baba, A. Fevzi; Kuscu, Dincer; Han, Kerem

2009-01-01

The complex nature and uncertain information in social problems required the emergence of fuzzy decision support systems in social areas. In this paper, we developed user-friendly Fuzzy Group Decision Support Systems (FGDSS) software. The software can be used for multi-purpose decision making processes. It helps the users determine the main and…

[Mechanisms for allocating financial resources after decentralization in the state of Jalisco].

PubMed

Pérez-Núñez, Ricardo; Arredondo-López, Armando; Pelcastre, Blanca

2006-01-01

To analyze, from the decision maker's perspective, the financial resource allocation process of the health services of the state of Jalisco (SSJ, per its abbreviation in spanish), within the context of decentralization. Through a qualitative approximation using semi-structured individual interviews of key personnel in managerial positions as the method for compiling information, the experience of the SSJ in financial resource allocation was documented. From September to November 2003, the perception of managers and administrators regarding their level of autonomy in decision-making was explored as well as the process they follow for the allocation of financial resources, in order to identify the criteria they use and their justifications. From the point of view of decision-makers, autonomy of the SSJ has increased considerably since decentralization was implemented, although the degree of decision-making freedom remains limited due mainly to high adminstrative costs associated with salaries. In this sense, the implications attributable to labor situations that are still centralized are evident. Some innovative systems for financial resource allocation have been established in the SSJ for the sanitary regions and hospitals based upon administrative-managerial and productivity incentives. Adjustments were also made for degree of marginalization and population lag, under the equity criterion. General work conditions and decision-making autonomy of the sanitary regions constitute outstanding aspects pending decentralization. Although decentralization has granted more autonomy to the SSJ, the level of decision-making freedom for allocating financial resources has been held within the highest hierarchical levels.

Building a Predictive Capability for Decision-Making that Supports MultiPEM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carmichael, Joshua Daniel

Multi-phenomenological explosion monitoring (multiPEM) is a developing science that uses multiple geophysical signatures of explosions to better identify and characterize their sources. MultiPEM researchers seek to integrate explosion signatures together to provide stronger detection, parameter estimation, or screening capabilities between different sources or processes. This talk will address forming a predictive capability for screening waveform explosion signatures to support multiPEM.

Three-Dimensional Dynamic Rupture in Brittle Solids and the Volumetric Strain Criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uenishi, K.; Yamachi, H.

2017-12-01

As pointed out by Uenishi (2016 AGU Fall Meeting), source dynamics of ordinary earthquakes is often studied in the framework of 3D rupture in brittle solids but our knowledge of mechanics of actual 3D rupture is limited. Typically, criteria derived from 1D frictional observations of sliding materials or post-failure behavior of solids are applied in seismic simulations, and although mode-I cracks are frequently encountered in earthquake-induced ground failures, rupture in tension is in most cases ignored. Even when it is included in analyses, the classical maximum principal tensile stress rupture criterion is repeatedly used. Our recent basic experiments of dynamic rupture of spherical or cylindrical monolithic brittle solids by applying high-voltage electric discharge impulses or impact loads have indicated generation of surprisingly simple and often flat rupture surfaces in 3D specimens even without the initial existence of planes of weakness. However, at the same time, the snapshots taken by a high-speed digital video camera have shown rather complicated histories of rupture development in these 3D solid materials, which seem to be difficult to be explained by, for example, the maximum principal stress criterion. Instead, a (tensile) volumetric strain criterion where the volumetric strain (dilatation or the first invariant of the strain tensor) is a decisive parameter for rupture seems more effective in computationally reproducing the multi-directionally propagating waves and rupture. In this study, we try to show the connection between this volumetric strain criterion and other classical rupture criteria or physical parameters employed in continuum mechanics, and indicate that the criterion has, to some degree, physical meanings. First, we mathematically illustrate that the criterion is equivalent to a criterion based on the mean normal stress, a crucial parameter in plasticity. Then, we mention the relation between the volumetric strain criterion and the failure envelope of the Mohr-Coulomb criterion that describes shear-related rupture. The critical value of the volumetric strain for rupture may be controlled by the apparent cohesion and apparent angle of internal friction of the Mohr-Coulomb criterion.

The Influence of Organizational Image on College Selection: What Students Seek in Institutions of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pampaloni, Andrea M.

2010-01-01

Colleges and universities rely on their image to attract new members. This study focuses on the decision-making process of students preparing to apply to college. High school students were surveyed at college open houses to identify the factors most influential to their college application decision-making. A multi-methods analysis found that…

Seven Reliability Indices for High-Stakes Decision Making: Description, Selection, and Simple Calculation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Stacey L.; Vannest, Kimberly J.; Davis, John L.

2011-01-01

The reliability of data is a critical issue in decision-making for practitioners in the school. Percent Agreement and Cohen's kappa are the two most widely reported indices of inter-rater reliability, however, a recent Monte Carlo study on the reliability of multi-category scales found other indices to be more trustworthy given the type of data…

A tuning algorithm for model predictive controllers based on genetic algorithms and fuzzy decision making.

PubMed

van der Lee, J H; Svrcek, W Y; Young, B R

2008-01-01

Model Predictive Control is a valuable tool for the process control engineer in a wide variety of applications. Because of this the structure of an MPC can vary dramatically from application to application. There have been a number of works dedicated to MPC tuning for specific cases. Since MPCs can differ significantly, this means that these tuning methods become inapplicable and a trial and error tuning approach must be used. This can be quite time consuming and can result in non-optimum tuning. In an attempt to resolve this, a generalized automated tuning algorithm for MPCs was developed. This approach is numerically based and combines a genetic algorithm with multi-objective fuzzy decision-making. The key advantages to this approach are that genetic algorithms are not problem specific and only need to be adapted to account for the number and ranges of tuning parameters for a given MPC. As well, multi-objective fuzzy decision-making can handle qualitative statements of what optimum control is, in addition to being able to use multiple inputs to determine tuning parameters that best match the desired results. This is particularly useful for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) cases where the definition of "optimum" control is subject to the opinion of the control engineer tuning the system. A case study will be presented in order to illustrate the use of the tuning algorithm. This will include how different definitions of "optimum" control can arise, and how they are accounted for in the multi-objective decision making algorithm. The resulting tuning parameters from each of the definition sets will be compared, and in doing so show that the tuning parameters vary in order to meet each definition of optimum control, thus showing the generalized automated tuning algorithm approach for tuning MPCs is feasible.

Experimental Evaluation of Suitability of Selected Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods for Large-Scale Agent-Based Simulations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can be formally implemented by various methods. This study compares suitability of four selected MCDM methods, namely WPM, TOPSIS, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, for future applications in agent-based computational economic (ACE) models of larger scale (i.e., over 10 000 agents in one geographical region). These four MCDM methods were selected according to their appropriateness for computational processing in ACE applications. Tests of the selected methods were conducted on four hardware configurations. For each method, 100 tests were performed, which represented one testing iteration. With four testing iterations conducted on each hardware setting and separated testing of all configurations with the–server parameter de/activated, altogether, 12800 data points were collected and consequently analyzed. An illustrational decision-making scenario was used which allows the mutual comparison of all of the selected decision making methods. Our test results suggest that although all methods are convenient and can be used in practice, the VIKOR method accomplished the tests with the best results and thus can be recommended as the most suitable for simulations of large-scale agent-based models. PMID:27806061

Applying multi-criteria decision-making to improve the waste reduction policy in Taiwan.

PubMed

Su, Jun-Pin; Hung, Ming-Lung; Chao, Chia-Wei; Ma, Hwong-wen

2010-01-01

Over the past two decades, the waste reduction problem has been a major issue in environmental protection. Both recycling and waste reduction policies have become increasingly important. As the complexity of decision-making has increased, it has become evident that more factors must be considered in the development and implementation of policies aimed at resource recycling and waste reduction. There are many studies focused on waste management excluding waste reduction. This study paid more attention to waste reduction. Social, economic, and management aspects of waste treatment policies were considered in this study. Further, a life-cycle assessment model was applied as an evaluation system for the environmental aspect. Results of both quantitative and qualitative analyses on the social, economic, and management aspects were integrated via the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method into the comprehensive decision-making support system of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). A case study evaluating the waste reduction policy in Taoyuan County is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of this model. In the case study, reinforcement of MSW sorting was shown to be the best practice. The model in this study can be applied to other cities faced with the waste reduction problems.

Towards sustainable infrastructure management: knowledge-based service-oriented computing framework for visual analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vatcha, Rashna; Lee, Seok-Won; Murty, Ajeet; Tolone, William; Wang, Xiaoyu; Dou, Wenwen; Chang, Remco; Ribarsky, William; Liu, Wanqiu; Chen, Shen-en; Hauser, Edd

2009-05-01

Infrastructure management (and its associated processes) is complex to understand, perform and thus, hard to make efficient and effective informed decisions. The management involves a multi-faceted operation that requires the most robust data fusion, visualization and decision making. In order to protect and build sustainable critical assets, we present our on-going multi-disciplinary large-scale project that establishes the Integrated Remote Sensing and Visualization (IRSV) system with a focus on supporting bridge structure inspection and management. This project involves specific expertise from civil engineers, computer scientists, geographers, and real-world practitioners from industry, local and federal government agencies. IRSV is being designed to accommodate the essential needs from the following aspects: 1) Better understanding and enforcement of complex inspection process that can bridge the gap between evidence gathering and decision making through the implementation of ontological knowledge engineering system; 2) Aggregation, representation and fusion of complex multi-layered heterogeneous data (i.e. infrared imaging, aerial photos and ground-mounted LIDAR etc.) with domain application knowledge to support machine understandable recommendation system; 3) Robust visualization techniques with large-scale analytical and interactive visualizations that support users' decision making; and 4) Integration of these needs through the flexible Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) framework to compose and provide services on-demand. IRSV is expected to serve as a management and data visualization tool for construction deliverable assurance and infrastructure monitoring both periodically (annually, monthly, even daily if needed) as well as after extreme events.

A multi-block adaptive solving technique based on lattice Boltzmann method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Xie, Jiahua; Li, Xiaoyue; Ma, Zhenghai; Zou, Jianfeng; Zheng, Yao

2018-05-01

In this paper, a CFD parallel adaptive algorithm is self-developed by combining the multi-block Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) with Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR). The mesh refinement criterion of this algorithm is based on the density, velocity and vortices of the flow field. The refined grid boundary is obtained by extending outward half a ghost cell from the coarse grid boundary, which makes the adaptive mesh more compact and the boundary treatment more convenient. Two numerical examples of the backward step flow separation and the unsteady flow around circular cylinder demonstrate the vortex structure of the cold flow field accurately and specifically.

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process in healthcare research: A systematic literature review and evaluation of reporting.

PubMed

Schmidt, Katharina; Aumann, Ines; Hollander, Ines; Damm, Kathrin; von der Schulenburg, J-Matthias Graf

2015-12-24

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), developed by Saaty in the late 1970s, is one of the methods for multi-criteria decision making. The AHP disaggregates a complex decision problem into different hierarchical levels. The weight for each criterion and alternative are judged in pairwise comparisons and priorities are calculated by the Eigenvector method. The slowly increasing application of the AHP was the motivation for this study to explore the current state of its methodology in the healthcare context. A systematic literature review was conducted by searching the Pubmed and Web of Science databases for articles with the following keywords in their titles or abstracts: "Analytic Hierarchy Process," "Analytical Hierarchy Process," "multi-criteria decision analysis," "multiple criteria decision," "stated preference," and "pairwise comparison." In addition, we developed reporting criteria to indicate whether the authors reported important aspects and evaluated the resulting studies' reporting. The systematic review resulted in 121 articles. The number of studies applying AHP has increased since 2005. Most studies were from Asia (almost 30%), followed by the US (25.6%). On average, the studies used 19.64 criteria throughout their hierarchical levels. Furthermore, we restricted a detailed analysis to those articles published within the last 5 years (n = 69). The mean of participants in these studies were 109, whereas we identified major differences in how the surveys were conducted. The evaluation of reporting showed that the mean of reported elements was about 6.75 out of 10. Thus, 12 out of 69 studies reported less than half of the criteria. The AHP has been applied inconsistently in healthcare research. A minority of studies described all the relevant aspects. Thus, the statements in this review may be biased, as they are restricted to the information available in the papers. Hence, further research is required to discover who should be interviewed and how, how inconsistent answers should be dealt with, and how the outcome and stability of the results should be presented. In addition, we need new insights to determine which target group can best handle the challenges of the AHP.

Do neurocognitive deficits in decision making differentiate conduct disorder subtypes?

PubMed

Fanti, Kostas A; Kimonis, Eva R; Hadjicharalambous, Maria-Zoe; Steinberg, Laurence

2016-09-01

The present study aimed to test whether neurocognitive deficits involved in decision making underlie subtypes of conduct-disorder (CD) differentiated on the basis of callous-unemotional (CU) traits. Eighty-five participants (M age = 10.94 years) were selected from a sample of 1200 children based on repeated assessment of CD and CU traits. Participants completed a multi-method battery of well-validated measures of risky decision making and associated constructs of selective attention and future orientation (Stroop, Stoplight, and Delay-Discounting Tasks). Findings indicated that impaired decision making, selective attention, and future orientation contribute to the antisocial presentations displayed by children with CD, irrespective of level of CU traits. Youth high on CU traits without CD showed less risky decision making, as indicated by their performance on the Stoplight laboratory task, than those high on both CD and CU traits, suggesting a potential protective factor against the development of antisocial behavior.

Impact of Robotic Surgery on Decision Making: Perspectives of Surgical Teams

PubMed Central

Randell, Rebecca; Alvarado, Natasha; Honey, Stephanie; Greenhalgh, Joanne; Gardner, Peter; Gill, Arron; Jayne, David; Kotze, Alwyn; Pearman, Alan; Dowding, Dawn

2015-01-01

There has been rapid growth in the purchase of surgical robots in both North America and Europe in recent years. Whilst this technology promises many benefits for patients, the introduction of such a complex interactive system into healthcare practice often results in unintended consequences that are difficult to predict. Decision making by surgeons during an operation is affected by variables including tactile perception, visual perception, motor skill, and instrument complexity, all of which are changed by robotic surgery, yet the impact of robotic surgery on decision making has not been previously studied. Drawing on the approach of realist evaluation, we conducted a multi-site interview study across nine hospitals, interviewing 44 operating room personnel with experience of robotic surgery to gather their perspectives on how robotic surgery impacts surgeon decision making. The findings reveal both potential benefits and challenges of robotic surgery for decision making. PMID:26958244

Impact of Robotic Surgery on Decision Making: Perspectives of Surgical Teams.

PubMed

Randell, Rebecca; Alvarado, Natasha; Honey, Stephanie; Greenhalgh, Joanne; Gardner, Peter; Gill, Arron; Jayne, David; Kotze, Alwyn; Pearman, Alan; Dowding, Dawn

2015-01-01

There has been rapid growth in the purchase of surgical robots in both North America and Europe in recent years. Whilst this technology promises many benefits for patients, the introduction of such a complex interactive system into healthcare practice often results in unintended consequences that are difficult to predict. Decision making by surgeons during an operation is affected by variables including tactile perception, visual perception, motor skill, and instrument complexity, all of which are changed by robotic surgery, yet the impact of robotic surgery on decision making has not been previously studied. Drawing on the approach of realist evaluation, we conducted a multi-site interview study across nine hospitals, interviewing 44 operating room personnel with experience of robotic surgery to gather their perspectives on how robotic surgery impacts surgeon decision making. The findings reveal both potential benefits and challenges of robotic surgery for decision making.

Decision-making process of patients with gynecological cancer regarding their cancer treatment choices using the analytic hierarchy process.

PubMed

Kitamura, Yuko

2010-12-01

In order to support patients' decision-making regarding cancer treatments, it is important to clarify which criteria that cancer patients use to set priorities in their treatment choices. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical decision-making method, this article investigates the criteria and the priorities of patients with gynecological cancer. In the AHP, multiple and hierarchical criteria in the decision-making process were organized by a repeated pairwise judgment of the participants so as to serialize the alternatives along with the rational order of the priorities. For the alternatives "to receive treatment" and "to not receive treatment," the following five criteria were set: "anxiety about relapse and metastasis", "distress about side-effects", "advice of family", "advice of medical staff", and "economic burden". The participants determined a pairwise priority scale, as well as a priority scale between the alternatives for every criterion. The logical consistency of their answers was checked by a consistency index (CI). The participants were 31 patients with ovarian or endometrial cancer who were being followed up after undergoing surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Of the participants who answered the questionnaire, 17 satisfied the logical consistency. Of the five criteria for the treatment choices, "anxiety about relapse and metastasis" and "advice of medical staff" were found to be the important factors for treatment choice; however, the weight attached to the priority criteria differed much among the patients. The AHP made it possible to support patients' decision-making in order to clarify their priority criteria and to quantitatively present their decision-making process. © 2010 The Author. Journal compilation © 2010 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

Out-of-Hospital Decision-Making and Factors Influencing the Regional Distribution of Injured Patients in a Trauma System

PubMed Central

Newgard, Craig D.; Nelson, Maria J.; Kampp, Michael; Saha, Somnath; Zive, Dana; Schmidt, Terri; Daya, Mohamud; Jui, Jonathan; Wittwer, Lynn; Warden, Craig; Sahni, Ritu; Stevens, Mark; Gorman, Kyle; Koenig, Karl; Gubler, Dean; Rosteck, Pontine; Lee, Jan; Hedges, Jerris R.

2011-01-01

Background The decision-making processes used for out-of-hospital trauma triage and hospital selection in regionalized trauma systems remain poorly understood. The objective of this study was to understand the process of field triage decision-making in an established trauma system. Methods We used a mixed methods approach, including EMS records to quantify triage decisions and reasons for hospital selection in a population-based, injury cohort (2006 - 2008), plus a focused ethnography to understand EMS cognitive reasoning in making triage decisions. The study included 10 EMS agencies providing service to a 4-county regional trauma system with 3 trauma centers and 13 non-trauma hospitals. For qualitative analyses, we conducted field observation and interviews with 35 EMS field providers and a round-table discussion with 40 EMS management personnel to generate an empirical model of out-of-hospital decision making in trauma triage. Results 64,190 injured patients were evaluated by EMS, of whom 56,444 (88.0%) were transported to acute care hospitals and 9,637 (17.1% of transports) were field trauma activations. For non-trauma activations, patient/family preference and proximity accounted for 78% of destination decisions. EMS provider judgment was cited in 36% of field trauma activations and was the sole criterion in 23% of trauma patients. The empirical model demonstrated that trauma triage is driven primarily by EMS provider “gut feeling” (judgment) and relies heavily on provider experience, mechanism of injury, and early visual cues at the scene. Conclusions Provider cognitive reasoning for field trauma triage is more heuristic than algorithmic and driven primarily by provider judgment, rather than specific triage criteria. PMID:21817971

How can multi criteria decision analysis support value assessment of pharmaceuticals? - Findings from a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Kolasa, Katarzyna; Zah, Vladimir; Kowalczyk, Marta

2018-04-29

As budget constraints become more and more visible, there is growing recognition for greater transparency and greater stakeholders' engagement in the pharmaceuticals' pric-ing&reimbursement (P&R) decision making. New frameworks of drugs' value assessments are searched for. Among them, the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) receives more and more attention. In 2014, ISPOR established Task Force to provide methodological recommendations for MCDA utilization in the health care decision making. Still, there is not so much knowledge about the real life experience with MCDA's adaptation to the P&R processes. Areas covered: A systematic literature review was performed to understand the rationale for MCDA adaptation, methodology used as well as its impact on P&R outcomes. Expert commentary: In total 102 hits were found through the search of databases, out of which 18 publications were selected. Although limited in scope, the review highlighted how MCDA can im-prove the decision making processes not only regarding pricing & reimbursement but also contribute to the the risk benefit assessment as well as optimization of treatment outcomes. Still none of re-viewed studies did report how MCDA results actually impacted the real life settings.

A multi-criteria decision making approach to identify a vaccine formulation.

PubMed

Dewé, Walthère; Durand, Christelle; Marion, Sandie; Oostvogels, Lidia; Devaster, Jeanne-Marie; Fourneau, Marc

2016-01-01

This article illustrates the use of a multi-criteria decision making approach, based on desirability functions, to identify an appropriate adjuvant composition for an influenza vaccine to be used in elderly. The proposed adjuvant system contained two main elements: monophosphoryl lipid and α-tocopherol with squalene in an oil/water emulsion. The objective was to elicit a stronger immune response while maintaining an acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile. The study design, the statistical models, the choice of the desirability functions, the computation of the overall desirability index, and the assessment of the robustness of the ranking are all detailed in this manuscript.

Critical multi-level governance issues of integrated modelling: An example of low-water management in the Adour-Garonne basin (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzega, Pierre; Therond, Olivier; Debril, Thomas; March, Hug; Sibertin-Blanc, Christophe; Lardy, Romain; Sant'ana, Daniel

2014-11-01

This paper presents the experience gained related to the development of an integrated simulation model of water policy. Within this context, we analyze particular difficulties raised by the inclusion of multi-level governance that assigns the responsibility of individual or collective decision-making to a variety of actors, regarding measures of which the implementation has significant effects toward the sustainability of socio-hydrosystems. Multi-level governance procedures are compared with the potential of model-based impact assessment. Our discussion is illustrated on the basis of the exploitation of the multi-agent platform MAELIA dedicated to the simulation of social, economic and environmental impacts of low-water management in a context of climate and regulatory changes. We focus on three major decision-making processes occurring in the Adour-Garonne basin, France: (i) the participatory development of the Master Scheme for Water Planning and Management (SDAGE) under the auspices of the Water Agency; (ii) the publication of water use restrictions in situations of water scarcity; and (iii) the determination of the abstraction volumes for irrigation and their allocation. The MAELIA platform explicitly takes into account the mode of decision-making when it is framed by a procedure set beforehand, focusing on the actors' participation and on the nature and parameters of the measures to be implemented. It is observed that in some water organizations decision-making follows patterns that can be represented as rule-based actions triggered by thresholds of resource states. When decisions are resulting from individual choice, endowing virtual agents with bounded rationality allows us to reproduce (in silico) their behavior and decisions in a reliable way. However, the negotiation processes taking place during the period of time simulated by the models in arenas of collective choices are not all reproducible. Outcomes of some collective decisions are very little or not at all predictable. The development and simulation of a priori policy scenarios capturing the most plausible or interesting outcomes of such collective decisions on measures for low-water management allows these difficulties to be overcome. The building of these kind of scenarios requires close collaboration between researchers and stakeholders involved in arenas of collective choice, and implies the integration of the production of model and the analysis of scenarios as one component of the polycentric political process of water management.

Implementation of preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (Promethee) on selection system of student’s achievement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlitasari, L.; Suhartini, D.; Nurrosikawati, L.

2018-03-01

Selection of Student Achievement is conducted every year, starting from the level of Study Program, Faculty, to University, which then rank one will be sent to Kopertis level. The criteria made for the selection are Academic and Rich Scientific, Organizational, Personality, and English. In order for the selection of Student Achievement is Objective, then in addition to the presence of the jury is expected to use methods that support the decision to be more optimal in determining the Student Achievement. One method used is the Promethee Method. Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (Promethee) is a method of ranking in Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). PROMETHEE has the advantage that there is a preference type against the criteria that can take into account alternatives with other alternatives on the same criteria. The conjecture of alternate dominance over a criterion used in PROMETHEE is the use of values in the relationships between alternative ranking values. Based on the calculation result, from 7 applicants between Manual and Promethee Matrices, rank 1, 2, and 3, did not change, only 4 to 7 positions were changed. However, after the sensitivity test, almost all criteria experience a high level of sensitivity. Although it does not affect the students who will be sent to the next level, but can bring psychological impact on prospective student’s achievement

Causal Inference for Cross-Modal Action Selection: A Computational Study in a Decision Making Framework.

PubMed

Daemi, Mehdi; Harris, Laurence R; Crawford, J Douglas

2016-01-01

Animals try to make sense of sensory information from multiple modalities by categorizing them into perceptions of individual or multiple external objects or internal concepts. For example, the brain constructs sensory, spatial representations of the locations of visual and auditory stimuli in the visual and auditory cortices based on retinal and cochlear stimulations. Currently, it is not known how the brain compares the temporal and spatial features of these sensory representations to decide whether they originate from the same or separate sources in space. Here, we propose a computational model of how the brain might solve such a task. We reduce the visual and auditory information to time-varying, finite-dimensional signals. We introduce controlled, leaky integrators as working memory that retains the sensory information for the limited time-course of task implementation. We propose our model within an evidence-based, decision-making framework, where the alternative plan units are saliency maps of space. A spatiotemporal similarity measure, computed directly from the unimodal signals, is suggested as the criterion to infer common or separate causes. We provide simulations that (1) validate our model against behavioral, experimental results in tasks where the participants were asked to report common or separate causes for cross-modal stimuli presented with arbitrary spatial and temporal disparities. (2) Predict the behavior in novel experiments where stimuli have different combinations of spatial, temporal, and reliability features. (3) Illustrate the dynamics of the proposed internal system. These results confirm our spatiotemporal similarity measure as a viable criterion for causal inference, and our decision-making framework as a viable mechanism for target selection, which may be used by the brain in cross-modal situations. Further, we suggest that a similar approach can be extended to other cognitive problems where working memory is a limiting factor, such as target selection among higher numbers of stimuli and selections among other modality combinations.

Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Tian

In this dissertation we study emergent collective decision-making in social groups with time-varying interactions and heterogeneously informed individuals. First we analyze a nonlinear dynamical systems model motivated by animal collective motion with heterogeneously informed subpopulations, to examine the role of uninformed individuals. We find through formal analysis that adding uninformed individuals in a group increases the likelihood of a collective decision. Secondly, we propose a model for human shared decision-making with continuous-time feedback and where individuals have little information about the true preferences of other group members. We study model equilibria using bifurcation analysis to understand how the model predicts decisions based on the critical threshold parameters that represent an individual's tradeoff between social and environmental influences. Thirdly, we analyze continuous-time data of pairs of human subjects performing an experimental shared tracking task using our second proposed model in order to understand transient behavior and the decision-making process. We fit the model to data and show that it reproduces a wide range of human behaviors surprisingly well, suggesting that the model may have captured the mechanisms of observed behaviors. Finally, we study human behavior from a game-theoretic perspective by modeling the aforementioned tracking task as a repeated game with incomplete information. We show that the majority of the players are able to converge to playing Nash equilibrium strategies. We then suggest with simulations that the mean field evolution of strategies in the population resemble replicator dynamics, indicating that the individual strategies may be myopic. Decisions form the basis of control and problems involving deciding collectively between alternatives are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering. Understanding how multi-agent systems make decisions among alternatives also provides insight for designing decentralized control laws for engineering applications from mobile sensor networks for environmental monitoring to collective construction robots. With this dissertation we hope to provide additional methodology and mathematical models for understanding the behavior and control of collective decision-making in multi-agent systems.

Some Results of Weak Anticipative Concept Applied in Simulation Based Decision Support in Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kljajić, Miroljub; Kofjač, Davorin; Kljajić Borštnar, Mirjana; Škraba, Andrej

2010-11-01

The simulation models are used as for decision support and learning in enterprises and in schools. Tree cases of successful applications demonstrate usefulness of weak anticipative information. Job shop scheduling production with makespan criterion presents a real case customized flexible furniture production optimization. The genetic algorithm for job shop scheduling optimization is presented. Simulation based inventory control for products with stochastic lead time and demand describes inventory optimization for products with stochastic lead time and demand. Dynamic programming and fuzzy control algorithms reduce the total cost without producing stock-outs in most cases. Values of decision making information based on simulation were discussed too. All two cases will be discussed from optimization, modeling and learning point of view.

Placement Decisions and Disparities among Aboriginal Groups: An Application of the Decision Making Ecology through Multi-Level Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fluke, John D.; Chabot, Martin; Fallon, Barbara; MacLaurin, Bruce; Blackstock, Cindy

2010-01-01

Objective: This paper examined the relative influence of clinical and organizational characteristics on the decision to place a child in out-of-home care at the conclusion of a child maltreatment investigation. It tested the hypothesis that extraneous factors, specifically, organizational characteristics, impact the decision to place a child in…

Measures and Interpretations of Vigilance Performance: Evidence Against the Detection Criterion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, J. D.

1998-01-01

Operators' performance in a vigilance task is often assumed to depend on their choice of a detection criterion. When the signal rate is low this criterion is set high, causing the hit and false alarm rates to be low. With increasing time on task the criterion presumably tends to increase even further, thereby further decreasing the hit and false alarm rates. Virtually all of the empirical evidence for this simple interpretation is based on estimates of the bias measure Beta from signal detection theory. In this article, I describe a new approach to studying decision making that does not require the technical assumptions of signal detection theory. The results of this new analysis suggest that the detection criterion is never biased toward either response, even when the signal rate is low and the time on task is long. Two modifications of the signal detection theory framework are considered to account for this seemingly paradoxical result. The first assumes that the signal rate affects the relative sizes of the variances of the information distributions; the second assumes that the signal rate affects the logic of the operator's stopping rule. Actual or potential applications of this research include the improved training and performance assessment of operators in areas such as product quality control, air traffic control, and medical and clinical diagnosis.

Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

1984-01-01

Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision propagation in numerical modeling using both classical Monte-Carlo probabilistic approach and also so-called Hybrid approach using possibility theory. Second approach deals with new multi-criteria decision-making methods which consider information imperfection, source reliability, importance and conflict, using fuzzy sets as well as possibility and belief function theories. Implemented methods consider information imperfection propagation and information fusion in total aggregation methods such as AHP (Saaty, 1980) or partial aggregation methods such as the Electre outranking method (see Soft Electre Tri ) or decisions in certain but also risky or uncertain contexts (see new COWA-ER and FOWA-ER- Cautious and Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging-Evidential Reasoning). For example, the ER-MCDA methodology considers expert assessment as a multi-criteria decision process based on imperfect information provided by more or less heterogeneous, reliable and conflicting sources: it mixes AHP, fuzzy sets theory, possibility theory and belief function theory using DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache Theory) framework which provides powerful fusion rules.

Use of the AHP methodology in system dynamics: Modelling and simulation for health technology assessments to determine the correct prosthesis choice for hernia diseases.

PubMed

Improta, Giovanni; Russo, Mario Alessandro; Triassi, Maria; Converso, Giuseppe; Murino, Teresa; Santillo, Liberatina Carmela

2018-05-01

Health technology assessments (HTAs) are often difficult to conduct because of the decisive procedures of the HTA algorithm, which are often complex and not easy to apply. Thus, their use is not always convenient or possible for the assessment of technical requests requiring a multidisciplinary approach. This paper aims to address this issue through a multi-criteria analysis focusing on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This methodology allows the decision maker to analyse and evaluate different alternatives and monitor their impact on different actors during the decision-making process. However, the multi-criteria analysis is implemented through a simulation model to overcome the limitations of the AHP methodology. Simulations help decision-makers to make an appropriate decision and avoid unnecessary and costly attempts. Finally, a decision problem regarding the evaluation of two health technologies, namely, the evaluation of two biological prostheses for incisional infected hernias, will be analysed to assess the effectiveness of the model. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment for Hospital Buildings Using a Gis-Based Group Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach: a Case Study of Tehran, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, M.; Moshiri, B.

2015-12-01

Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert's judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

Multi-criteria decision support framework for sustainable implementation of effective green supply chain management practices.

PubMed

Boutkhoum, Omar; Hanine, Mohamed; Boukhriss, Hicham; Agouti, Tarik; Tikniouine, Abdessadek

2016-01-01

At present, environmental issues become real critical barriers for many supply chain corporations concerning the sustainability of their businesses. In this context, several studies have been proposed from both academia and industry trying to develop new measurements related to green supply chain management (GSCM) practices to overcome these barriers, which will help create new environmental strategies, implementing those practices in their manufacturing processes. The objective of this study is to present the technical and analytical contribution that multi-criteria decision making analysis (MCDA) can bring to environmental decision making problems, and especially to GSCM field. For this reason, a multi-criteria decision-making methodology, combining fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (fuzzy TOPSIS), is proposed to contribute to a better understanding of new sustainable strategies through the identification and evaluation of the most appropriate GSCM practices to be adopted by industrial organizations. The fuzzy AHP process is used to construct hierarchies of the influential criteria, and then identify the importance weights of the selected criteria, while the fuzzy TOPSIS process employs these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate and measure the performance of each alternative. To illustrate the effectiveness and performance of our MCDA approach, we have applied it to a chemical industry corporation located in Safi, Morocco.

a Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group Mcdm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.; Khamespanah, F.

2014-10-01

Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

Risk Identification in Major Weapon Systems Acquisition in the Republic of China Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

Association. Washington DC, 1985. 22. Agor , Weston H . "How Top Executives Use Their Intuition to Make Important Decisions," Business Horizon. New York NY, (Jan...Data for Supportability Risk Drivers ..................................... 141 Appendix H : Ranked Data for Supportability Risk Drivers after Ties...block the observations may be ranked according to criterion of interest (26:299). B. Procedures. 1. Hypotheses. H Each ranking of the random variables

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management.

PubMed

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-17

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

PubMed Central

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members’ capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches. PMID:28094787

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

Multi-objective, multiple participant decision support for water management in the Andarax catchment, Almeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Cauwenbergh, N.; Pinte, D.; Tilmant, A.; Frances, I.; Pulido-Bosch, A.; Vanclooster, M.

2008-04-01

Water management in the Andarax river basin (Almeria, Spain) is a multi-objective, multi-participant, long-term decision-making problem that faces several challenges. Adequate water allocation needs informed decisions to meet increasing socio-economic demands while respecting the environmental integrity of this basin. Key players in the Andarax water sector include the municipality of Almeria, the irrigators involved in the intensive greenhouse agricultural sector, and booming second residences. A decision support system (DSS) is developed to rank different sustainable planning and management alternatives according to their socio-economic and environmental performance. The DSS is intimately linked to sustainability indicators and is designed through a public participation process. Indicators are linked to criteria reflecting stakeholders concerns in the 2005 field survey, such as fulfilling water demand, water price, technical and economical efficiency, social and environmental impacts. Indicators can be partly quantified after simulating the operation of the groundwater reservoir over a 20-year planning period and partly through a parallel expert evaluation process. To predict the impact of future water demand in the catchment, several development scenarios are designed to be evaluated in the DSS. The successive multi-criteria analysis of the performance indicators permits the ranking of the different management alternatives according to the multiple objectives formulated by the different sectors/participants. This allows more informed and transparent decision-making processes for the Andarax river basin, recognizing both the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of water resources management.

Application of an integrated multi-criteria decision making AHP-TOPSIS methodology for ETL software selection.

PubMed

Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

2016-01-01

Actually, a set of ETL software (Extract, Transform and Load) is available to constitute a major investment market. Each ETL uses its own techniques for extracting, transforming and loading data into data warehouse, which makes the task of evaluating ETL software very difficult. However, choosing the right software of ETL is critical to the success or failure of any Business Intelligence project. As there are many impacting factors in the selection of ETL software, the same process is considered as a complex multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. In this study, an application of decision-making methodology that employs the two well-known MCDM techniques, namely Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods is designed. In this respect, the aim of using AHP is to analyze the structure of the ETL software selection problem and obtain weights of the selected criteria. Then, TOPSIS technique is used to calculate the alternatives' ratings. An example is given to illustrate the proposed methodology. Finally, a software prototype for demonstrating both methods is implemented.

Theoretical aspects of cellular decision-making and information-processing.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

2012-01-01

Microscopic biological processes have extraordinary complexity and variety at the sub-cellular, intra-cellular, and multi-cellular levels. In dealing with such complex phenomena, conceptual and theoretical frameworks are crucial, which enable us to understand seemingly different intra- and inter-cellular phenomena from unified viewpoints. Decision-making is one such concept that has attracted much attention recently. Since a number of cellular behavior can be regarded as processes to make specific actions in response to external stimuli, decision-making can cover and has been used to explain a broad range of different cellular phenomena [Balázsi et al. (Cell 144(6):910, 2011), Zeng et al. (Cell 141(4):682, 2010)]. Decision-making is also closely related to cellular information-processing because appropriate decisions cannot be made without exploiting the information that the external stimuli contain. Efficiency of information transduction and processing by intra-cellular networks determines the amount of information obtained, which in turn limits the efficiency of subsequent decision-making. Furthermore, information-processing itself can serve as another concept that is crucial for understanding of other biological processes than decision-making. In this work, we review recent theoretical developments on cellular decision-making and information-processing by focusing on the relation between these two concepts.

The limits of intelligence in design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Papamichael, K.; Protzen, J.P.

1993-05-01

A new, comprehensive design theory is presented, applicable to all design domains such as engineering and industrial design, architecture, city and regional planning, and, in general, any goal-oriented activity that involves decision making. The design process is analyzed into fundamental activities that are characterized with respect to the nature of knowledge requirements and the degree to which they can be specified and delegated to others, in general, and to computers in particular. The characterization of design problems as ``wicked,`` or ``ill-defined,`` design has been understood as a rational activity, that is ``thinking before acting.`` The new theory presented in thismore » paper suggests that design is ``thinking and feeling while acting,`` supporting the position that design is only partially rational. Intelligence, ``natural`` or ``artificial,`` is only one of two requirements for design, the other being emotions. Design decisions are only partially inferred, that is, they are not entirely the product of reasoning. Rather, design decisions are based on judgment that requires the notion of ``good`` and ``bad,`` which is attributed to feelings, rather than thoughts. The presentation of the design theory extends to the implications associated with the limits of intelligence in design, which, in turn, become constraints on the potential role of computers in design. Many of the current development efforts in computer-aided design violate these constraints, especially in the implementation of expert systems and multi-criterion evaluation models. These violations are identified and discussed in detail. Finally, specific areas for further research and development in computer-aided design are presented and discussed.« less

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

[End-of-life decisions and practices in critically ill patients in the cardiac intensive care unit. A nationwide survey].

PubMed

Schimmer, C; Hamouda, K; Oezkur, M; Sommer, S-P; Leistner, M; Leyh, R

2016-03-01

Ethical and medical criteria in the decision-making process of withholding or withdrawal of life support therapy in critically ill patients present a great challenge in intensive care medicine. The purpose of this work was to assess medical and ethical criteria that influence the decision-making process for changing the aim of therapy in critically ill cardiac surgery patients. A questionnaire was distributed to all German cardiac surgery centers (n = 79). All clinical directors, intensive care unit (ICU) consultants and ICU head nurses were asked to complete questionnaires (n = 237). In all, 86 of 237 (36.3 %) questionnaires were returned. Medical reasons which influence the decision-making process for changing the aim of therapy were cranial computed tomography (cCT) with poor prognosis (91.9 %), multi-organ failure (70.9 %), and failure of assist device therapy (69.8 %). Concerning ethical reasons, poor expected quality of life (48.8 %) and the presumed patient's wishes (40.7 %) were reported. There was a significant difference regarding the perception of the three different professional groups concerning medical and ethical criteria as well as the involvement in the decision-making process. In critically ill cardiac surgery patients, medical reasons which influence the decision-making process for changing the aim of therapy included cCT with poor prognosis, multi-organ failure, and failure of assist device therapy. Further studies are mandatory in order to be able to provide adequate answers to this difficult topic.

Prospect Theory and Interval-Valued Hesitant Set for Safety Evacuation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kou, Meng; Lu, Na

2018-01-01

The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.

Costing bias in economic evaluations.

PubMed

Frappier, Julie; Tremblay, Gabriel; Charny, Mark; Cloutier, L Martin

2015-01-01

Determining the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions is key to the decision-making process in healthcare. Cost comparisons are used to demonstrate the economic value of treatment options, to evaluate the impact on the insurer budget, and are often used as a key criterion in treatment comparison and comparative effectiveness; however, little guidance is available to researchers for establishing the costing of clinical events and resource utilization. Different costing methods exist, and the choice of underlying assumptions appears to have a significant impact on the results of the costing analysis. This editorial describes the importance of the choice of the costing technique and it's potential impact on the relative cost of treatment options. This editorial also calls for a more efficient approach to healthcare intervention costing in order to ensure the use of consistent costing in the decision-making process.

Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2013-01-01

Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: Science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Lonsdorf, E.V.; Knutson, M.G.; Laskowski, H.P.; Lor, S.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS. ?? 2010 .

Application of multi-criteria decision-making on strategic municipal solid waste management in Dalmatia, Croatia.

PubMed

Vego, Goran; Kucar-Dragicević, Savka; Koprivanac, Natalija

2008-11-01

The efficiency of providing a waste management system in the coastal part of Croatia consisting of four Dalmatian counties has been modelled. Two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA, were applied to assist with the systematic analysis and evaluation of the alternatives. The analysis covered two levels; first, the potential number of waste management centres resulting from possible inter-county cooperation; and second, the relative merits of siting of waste management centres in the coastal or hinterland zone was evaluated. The problem was analysed according to several criteria; and ecological, economic, social and functional criteria sets were identified as relevant to the decision-making process. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods were shown to be efficient tools for analysing the problem considered. Such an approach provided new insights to waste management planning at the strategic level, and gave a reason for rethinking some of the existing strategic waste management documents in Croatia.

Evaluation of healthcare waste treatment/disposal alternatives by using multi-criteria decision-making techniques.

PubMed

Özkan, Aysun

2013-02-01

Healthcare waste should be managed carefully because of infected, pathological, etc. content especially in developing countries. Applied management systems must be the most appropriate solution from a technical, environmental, economic and social point of view. The main objective of this study was to analyse the current status of healthcare waste management in Turkey, and to investigate the most appropriate treatment/disposal option by using different decision-making techniques. For this purpose, five different healthcare waste treatment/disposal alternatives including incineration, microwaving, on-site sterilization, off-site sterilization and landfill were evaluated according to two multi-criteria decision-making techniques: analytic network process (ANP) and ELECTRE. In this context, benefits, costs and risks for the alternatives were taken into consideration. Furthermore, the prioritization and ranking of the alternatives were determined and compared for both methods. According to the comparisons, the off-site sterilization technique was found to be the most appropriate solution in both cases.

Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

2015-10-01

Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

2018-02-01

A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

Application of TOPSIS and VIKOR improved versions in a multi criteria decision analysis to develop an optimized municipal solid waste management model.

PubMed

Aghajani Mir, M; Taherei Ghazvinei, P; Sulaiman, N M N; Basri, N E A; Saheri, S; Mahmood, N Z; Jahan, A; Begum, R A; Aghamohammadi, N

2016-01-15

Selecting a suitable Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method is a crucial stage to establish a Solid Waste Management (SWM) system. Main objective of the current study is to demonstrate and evaluate a proposed method using Multiple Criteria Decision Making methods (MCDM). An improved version of Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) applied to obtain the best municipal solid waste management method by comparing and ranking the scenarios. Applying this method in order to rank treatment methods is introduced as one contribution of the study. Besides, Viekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) compromise solution method applied for sensitivity analyses. The proposed method can assist urban decision makers in prioritizing and selecting an optimized Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) treatment system. Besides, a logical and systematic scientific method was proposed to guide an appropriate decision-making. A modified TOPSIS methodology as a superior to existing methods for first time was applied for MSW problems. Applying this method in order to rank treatment methods is introduced as one contribution of the study. Next, 11 scenarios of MSW treatment methods are defined and compared environmentally and economically based on the waste management conditions. Results show that integrating a sanitary landfill (18.1%), RDF (3.1%), composting (2%), anaerobic digestion (40.4%), and recycling (36.4%) was an optimized model of integrated waste management. An applied decision-making structure provides the opportunity for optimum decision-making. Therefore, the mix of recycling and anaerobic digestion and a sanitary landfill with Electricity Production (EP) are the preferred options for MSW management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting for reasonableness: Exploring the personal internal framework affecting decisions about cancer drug funding.

PubMed

Sinclair, Shane; Hagen, Neil A; Chambers, Carole; Manns, Braden; Simon, Anita; Browman, George P

2008-05-01

Drug decision-makers are involved in developing and implementing policy, procedure and processes to support health resource allocation regarding drug treatment formularies. A variety of approaches to decision-making, including formal decision-making frameworks, have been developed to support transparent and fair priority setting. Recently, a decision tool, 'The 6-STEPPPs Tool', was developed to assist in making decisions about new cancer drugs within the public health care system. We conducted a qualitative study, utilizing focus groups and participant observation, in order to investigate the internal frameworks that supported and challenged individual participants as they applied this decision tool within a multi-stakeholder decision process. We discovered that health care resource allocation engaged not only the minds of decision-makers but profoundly called on the often conflicting values of the heart. Objective decision-making frameworks for new drug therapies need to consider the subjective internal frameworks of decision-makers that affect decisions. Understanding the very human, internal turmoil experienced by individuals involved in health care resource allocation, sheds additional insight into how to account for reasonableness and how to better support difficult decisions through transparent, values-based resource allocation policy, procedures and processes.

Using multi-criteria decision making for selection of the optimal strategy for municipal solid waste management.

PubMed

Jovanovic, Sasa; Savic, Slobodan; Jovicic, Nebojsa; Boskovic, Goran; Djordjevic, Zorica

2016-09-01

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) is a relatively new tool for decision makers who deal with numerous and often contradictory factors during their decision making process. This paper presents a procedure to choose the optimal municipal solid waste (MSW) management system for the area of the city of Kragujevac (Republic of Serbia) based on the MCDM method. Two methods of multiple attribute decision making, i.e. SAW (simple additive weighting method) and TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution), respectively, were used to compare the proposed waste management strategies (WMS). Each of the created strategies was simulated using the software package IWM2. Total values for eight chosen parameters were calculated for all the strategies. Contribution of each of the six waste treatment options was valorized. The SAW analysis was used to obtain the sum characteristics for all the waste management treatment strategies and they were ranked accordingly. The TOPSIS method was used to calculate the relative closeness factors to the ideal solution for all the alternatives. Then, the proposed strategies were ranked in form of tables and diagrams obtained based on both MCDM methods. As shown in this paper, the results were in good agreement, which additionally confirmed and facilitated the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Using Covert Response Activation to Test Latent Assumptions of Formal Decision-Making Models in Humans.

PubMed

Servant, Mathieu; White, Corey; Montagnini, Anna; Burle, Borís

2015-07-15

Most decisions that we make build upon multiple streams of sensory evidence and control mechanisms are needed to filter out irrelevant information. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making have recently been enriched by attentional mechanisms that weight sensory evidence in a dynamic and goal-directed way. However, the framework retains the longstanding hypothesis that motor activity is engaged only once a decision threshold is reached. To probe latent assumptions of these models, neurophysiological indices are needed. Therefore, we collected behavioral and EMG data in the flanker task, a standard paradigm to investigate decisions about relevance. Although the models captured response time distributions and accuracy data, EMG analyses of response agonist muscles challenged the assumption of independence between decision and motor processes. Those analyses revealed covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") in a fraction of trials in which the correct response was finally given, providing intermediate states of evidence accumulation and response activation at the single-trial level. We extended the models by allowing motor activity to occur before a commitment to a choice and demonstrated that the proposed framework captured the rate, latency, and EMG surface of partial errors, along with the speed of the correction process. In return, EMG data provided strong constraints to discriminate between competing models that made similar behavioral predictions. Our study opens new theoretical and methodological avenues for understanding the links among decision making, cognitive control, and motor execution in humans. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making assume that sensory information is accumulated until a criterion quantity of evidence is obtained, from where the decision terminates in a choice and motor activity is engaged. The very existence of covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") during the evidence accumulation process challenges this longstanding assumption. In the present work, we use partial errors to better constrain sequential sampling models at the single-trial level. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3510371-15$15.00/0.

Systematic narrative review of decision frameworks to select the appropriate modelling approaches for health economic evaluations.

PubMed

Tsoi, B; O'Reilly, D; Jegathisawaran, J; Tarride, J-E; Blackhouse, G; Goeree, R

2015-06-17

In constructing or appraising a health economic model, an early consideration is whether the modelling approach selected is appropriate for the given decision problem. Frameworks and taxonomies that distinguish between modelling approaches can help make this decision more systematic and this study aims to identify and compare the decision frameworks proposed to date on this topic area. A systematic review was conducted to identify frameworks from peer-reviewed and grey literature sources. The following databases were searched: OVID Medline and EMBASE; Wiley's Cochrane Library and Health Economic Evaluation Database; PubMed; and ProQuest. Eight decision frameworks were identified, each focused on a different set of modelling approaches and employing a different collection of selection criterion. The selection criteria can be categorized as either: (i) structural features (i.e. technical elements that are factual in nature) or (ii) practical considerations (i.e. context-dependent attributes). The most commonly mentioned structural features were population resolution (i.e. aggregate vs. individual) and interactivity (i.e. static vs. dynamic). Furthermore, understanding the needs of the end-users and stakeholders was frequently incorporated as a criterion within these frameworks. There is presently no universally-accepted framework for selecting an economic modelling approach. Rather, each highlights different criteria that may be of importance when determining whether a modelling approach is appropriate. Further discussion is thus necessary as the modelling approach selected will impact the validity of the underlying economic model and have downstream implications on its efficiency, transparency and relevance to decision-makers.

Building uncertainty into cost-effectiveness rankings: portfolio risk-return tradeoffs and implications for decision rules.

PubMed

O'Brien, B J; Sculpher, M J

2000-05-01

Current principles of cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the rank ordering of programs by expected economic return (eg, quality-adjusted life-years gained per dollar expended). This criterion ignores the variance associated with the cost-effectiveness of a program, yet variance is a common measure of risk when financial investment options are appraised. Variation in health care program return is likely to be a criterion of program selection for health care managers with fixed budgets and outcome performance targets. Characterizing health care resource allocation as a risky investment problem, we show how concepts of portfolio analysis from financial economics can be adopted as a conceptual framework for presenting cost-effectiveness data from multiple programs as mean-variance data. Two specific propositions emerge: (1) the current convention of ranking programs by expected return is a special case of the portfolio selection problem in which the decision maker is assumed to be indifferent to risk, and (2) for risk-averse decision makers, the degree of joint risk or covariation in cost-effectiveness between programs will create incentives to diversify an investment portfolio. The conventional normative assumption of risk neutrality for social-level public investment decisions does not apply to a large number of health care resource allocation decisions in which health care managers seek to maximize returns subject to budget constraints and performance targets. Portfolio theory offers a useful framework for studying mean-variance tradeoffs in cost-effectiveness and offers some positive predictions (and explanations) of actual decision making in the health care sector.

Algorithm of choosing type of mechanical assembly production of instrument making enterprises of Industry 4.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakoldaev, D. A.; Shukalov, A. V.; Zharinov, I. O.; Zharinov, O. O.

2018-05-01

The task of the algorithm of choosing the type of mechanical assembly production of instrument making enterprises of Industry 4.0 is being studied. There is a comparison of two project algorithms for Industry 3.0 and Industry 4.0. The algorithm of choosing the type of mechanical assembly production of instrument making enterprises of Industry 4.0 is based on the technological route analysis of the manufacturing process in a company equipped with cyber and physical systems. This algorithm may give some project solutions selected from the primary part or the auxiliary one of the production. The algorithm decisive rules are based on the optimal criterion.

A decision support system using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for the optimal environmental reclamation of an open-pit mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bascetin, A.

2007-04-01

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important factors in open-pit design and production planning. It also affects economic considerations in open-pit design as a function of plan location and depth. Furthermore, the selection is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by applying a systematic and logical approach to assess the priorities based on the inputs of several specialists from different functional areas within the mine company. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, the selection of an optimal reclamation method using an AHP-based model was evaluated for coal production in an open-pit coal mine located at Seyitomer region in Turkey. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a reclamation method that satisfies optimal specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and using the proposed model can reduce the time taken to select a optimal method.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Application of a Sensemaking Approach to Ethics Training in the Physical Sciences and Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kligyte, Vykinta; Marcy, Richard T.; Waples, Ethan P.; Sevier, Sydney T.; Godfrey, Elaine S.; Mumford, Michael D.; Hougen, Dean F.

2008-06-01

Integrity is a critical determinant of the effectiveness of research organizations in terms of producing high quality research and educating the new generation of scientists. A number of responsible conduct of research (RCR) training programs have been developed to address this growing organizational concern. However, in spite of a significant body of research in ethics training, it is still unknown which approach has the highest potential to enhance researchers' integrity. One of the approaches showing some promise in improving researchers' integrity has focused on the development of ethical decision-making skills. The current effort proposes a novel curriculum that focuses on broad metacognitive reasoning strategies researchers use when making sense of day-to-day social and professional practices that have ethical implications for the physical sciences and engineering. This sensemaking training has been implemented in a professional sample of scientists conducting research in electrical engineering, atmospheric and computer sciences at a large multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary, and multi-university research center. A pre-post design was used to assess training effectiveness using scenario-based ethical decision-making measures. The training resulted in enhanced ethical decision-making of researchers in relation to four ethical conduct areas, namely data management, study conduct, professional practices, and business practices. In addition, sensemaking training led to researchers' preference for decisions involving the application of the broad metacognitive reasoning strategies. Individual trainee and training characteristics were used to explain the study findings. Broad implications of the findings for ethics training development, implementation, and evaluation in the sciences are discussed.

Application of a sensemaking approach to ethics training in the physical sciences and engineering.

PubMed

Kligyte, Vykinta; Marcy, Richard T; Waples, Ethan P; Sevier, Sydney T; Godfrey, Elaine S; Mumford, Michael D; Hougen, Dean F

2008-06-01

Integrity is a critical determinant of the effectiveness of research organizations in terms of producing high quality research and educating the new generation of scientists. A number of responsible conduct of research (RCR) training programs have been developed to address this growing organizational concern. However, in spite of a significant body of research in ethics training, it is still unknown which approach has the highest potential to enhance researchers' integrity. One of the approaches showing some promise in improving researchers' integrity has focused on the development of ethical decision-making skills. The current effort proposes a novel curriculum that focuses on broad metacognitive reasoning strategies researchers use when making sense of day-to-day social and professional practices that have ethical implications for the physical sciences and engineering. This sensemaking training has been implemented in a professional sample of scientists conducting research in electrical engineering, atmospheric and computer sciences at a large multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary, and multi-university research center. A pre-post design was used to assess training effectiveness using scenario-based ethical decision-making measures. The training resulted in enhanced ethical decision-making of researchers in relation to four ethical conduct areas, namely data management, study conduct, professional practices, and business practices. In addition, sensemaking training led to researchers' preference for decisions involving the application of the broad metacognitive reasoning strategies. Individual trainee and training characteristics were used to explain the study findings. Broad implications of the findings for ethics training development, implementation, and evaluation in the sciences are discussed.

Selection of the open pit mining cut-off grade strategy under price uncertainty using a risk based multi-criteria ranking system / Wybór strategii określania warunku opłacalności wydobycia w kopalniach odkrywkowych w warunkach niepewności cen w oparciu o wielokryterialny system rankingowy z uwzględnieniem czynników ryzyka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azimi, Yousue; Osanloo, Montza; Esfahanipour, Akbar

2012-12-01

Cut-off Grade Strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economic, environmental, and legal issues in relation to exploitation of a mineral resource. A decision making system is proposed to select the best technically feasible COGS under price uncertainty. In the proposed system both the conventional discounted cash flow and modern simulation based real option valuations are used to evaluate the alternative strategies. Then the conventional expected value criterion and a multiple criteria ranking system were used to rank the strategies based on the two valuation methods. In the multiple criteria ranking system besides the expected value other stochastic orders expressing abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses and achieving the predefined goals of the exploitation strategy are considered. Finally, the best strategy is selected based on the overall average rank of strategies through all ranking systems. The proposed system was examined using the data of Sungun Copper Mine. To assess the merits of the alternatives better, ranking process was done at both high (prevailing economic condition) and low price conditions. Ranking results revealed that at different price conditions and valuation methods, different results would be obtained. It is concluded that these differences are due to the different behavior of the embedded option to close the mine early, which is more likely to be exercised under low price condition rather than high price condition. The proposed system would enhance the quality of decision making process by providing a more informative and certain platform for project evaluation.

An innovative approach to addressing childhood obesity: a knowledge-based infrastructure for supporting multi-stakeholder partnership decision-making in Quebec, Canada.

PubMed

Addy, Nii Antiaye; Shaban-Nejad, Arash; Buckeridge, David L; Dubé, Laurette

2015-01-23

Multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) have become a widespread means for deploying policies in a whole of society strategy to address the complex problem of childhood obesity. However, decision-making in MSPs is fraught with challenges, as decision-makers are faced with complexity, and have to reconcile disparate conceptualizations of knowledge across multiple sectors with diverse sets of indicators and data. These challenges can be addressed by supporting MSPs with innovative tools for obtaining, organizing and using data to inform decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a "portrait", which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions, and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed to provide semantic support for the MSP process, defining objectives, strategies, actions, indicators, and data sources. In the future, software interacting with the ontology can facilitate interactive browsing by decision-makers in the MSP in the form of concepts, instances, relationships, and axioms. Our ontology also facilitates the integration and interpretation of community data, and can help in managing semantic interoperability between different knowledge sources. Future work will focus on defining specifications for the development of a database of indicators and an information system to help decision-makers to view, analyze and organize indicators for their community. This work should improve MSP decision-making in the development of interventions to address childhood obesity.

An Innovative Approach to Addressing Childhood Obesity: A Knowledge-Based Infrastructure for Supporting Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Decision-Making in Quebec, Canada

PubMed Central

Addy, Nii Antiaye; Shaban-Nejad, Arash; Buckeridge, David L.; Dubé, Laurette

2015-01-01

Multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) have become a widespread means for deploying policies in a whole of society strategy to address the complex problem of childhood obesity. However, decision-making in MSPs is fraught with challenges, as decision-makers are faced with complexity, and have to reconcile disparate conceptualizations of knowledge across multiple sectors with diverse sets of indicators and data. These challenges can be addressed by supporting MSPs with innovative tools for obtaining, organizing and using data to inform decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a “portrait”, which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions, and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed to provide semantic support for the MSP process, defining objectives, strategies, actions, indicators, and data sources. In the future, software interacting with the ontology can facilitate interactive browsing by decision-makers in the MSP in the form of concepts, instances, relationships, and axioms. Our ontology also facilitates the integration and interpretation of community data, and can help in managing semantic interoperability between different knowledge sources. Future work will focus on defining specifications for the development of a database of indicators and an information system to help decision-makers to view, analyze and organize indicators for their community. This work should improve MSP decision-making in the development of interventions to address childhood obesity. PMID:25625409

A study protocol of the effectiveness of PEGASUS: a multi-centred study comparing an intervention to promote shared decision making about breast reconstruction with treatment as usual.

PubMed

Harcourt, Diana; Paraskeva, Nicole; White, Paul; Powell, Jane; Clarke, Alex

2017-10-02

Increasingly, women elect breast reconstruction after mastectomy. However, their expectations of surgery are often not met, and dissatisfaction with outcome and ongoing psychosocial concerns and distress are common. We developed a patient-centered intervention, PEGASUS:(Patients' Expectations and Goals: Assisting Shared Understanding of Surgery) which supports shared decision making by helping women clarify their own, individual goals about reconstruction so that they can discuss these with their surgeon. Our acceptability/feasibility work has shown it is well received by patients and health professionals alike. We now need to establish whether PEGASUS improves patients' experiences of breast reconstruction decision making and outcomes. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to examine the effectiveness of PEGASUS, an intervention designed to support shared decision making about breast reconstruction. A multi-centered sequential study will compare the impact of PEGASUS with usual care, in terms of patient reported outcomes (self-reported satisfaction with the outcome of surgery, involvement in decision making and in the consultation) and health economics. Initially we will collect data from our comparison (usual care) group (90 women) who will complete standardized measures (Breast-Q, EQ5D -5 L and ICECAP- A) at the time of decision making, 3, 6 and 12 months after surgery. Health professionals will then be trained to use PEGASUS, which will be delivered to the intervention group (another 90 women completing the same measures at the time of decision making, and 3, 6 and 12 months after surgery). Health professionals and a purposefully selected sample of participants will be interviewed about whether their expectations of reconstruction were met, and their experiences of PEGASUS (if appropriate). PEGASUS may have the potential to provide health professionals with an easily accessible tool aiming to support shared decision making and improve patients' satisfaction with breast reconstruction. Results of this study will be available at the end of 2019. ISRCTN 18000391 (DOI 10.1186/ISRCTN18000391) 27/01/2016.

Knowledge translation strategies to improve the use of evidence in public health decision making in local government: intervention design and implementation plan

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Knowledge translation strategies are an approach to increase the use of evidence within policy and practice decision-making contexts. In clinical and health service contexts, knowledge translation strategies have focused on individual behavior change, however the multi-system context of public health requires a multi-level, multi-strategy approach. This paper describes the design of and implementation plan for a knowledge translation intervention for public health decision making in local government. Methods Four preliminary research studies contributed findings to the design of the intervention: a systematic review of knowledge translation intervention effectiveness research, a scoping study of knowledge translation perspectives and relevant theory literature, a survey of the local government public health workforce, and a study of the use of evidence-informed decision-making for public health in local government. A logic model was then developed to represent the putative pathways between intervention inputs, processes, and outcomes operating between individual-, organizational-, and system-level strategies. This formed the basis of the intervention plan. Results The systematic and scoping reviews identified that effective and promising strategies to increase access to research evidence require an integrated intervention of skill development, access to a knowledge broker, resources and tools for evidence-informed decision making, and networking for information sharing. Interviews and survey analysis suggested that the intervention needs to operate at individual and organizational levels, comprising workforce development, access to evidence, and regular contact with a knowledge broker to increase access to intervention evidence; develop skills in appraisal and integration of evidence; strengthen networks; and explore organizational factors to build organizational cultures receptive to embedding evidence in practice. The logic model incorporated these inputs and strategies with a set of outcomes to measure the intervention’s effectiveness based on the theoretical frameworks, evaluation studies, and decision-maker experiences. Conclusion Documenting the design of and implementation plan for this knowledge translation intervention provides a transparent, theoretical, and practical approach to a complex intervention. It provides significant insights into how practitioners might engage with evidence in public health decision making. While this intervention model was designed for the local government context, it is likely to be applicable and generalizable across sectors and settings. Trial registration Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Register ACTRN12609000953235. PMID:24107358

Research on the influence of parking charging strategy based on multi-level extension theory of group decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Fen; Hu, Wanxin

2017-05-01

Based on analysis of the impact of the experience of parking policy at home and abroad, design the impact analysis process of parking strategy. First, using group decision theory to create a parking strategy index system and calculate its weight. Index system includes government, parking operators and travelers. Then, use a multi-level extension theory to analyze the CBD parking strategy. Assess the parking strategy by calculating the correlation of each indicator. Finally, assess the strategy of parking charges through a case. Provide a scientific and reasonable basis for assessing parking strategy. The results showed that the model can effectively analyze multi-target, multi-property parking policy evaluation.

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2003-01-01

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

Cluster Analysis and Gaussian Mixture Estimation of Correlated Time-Series by Means of Multi-dimensional Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibuki, Takero; Suzuki, Sei; Inoue, Jun-ichi

We investigate cross-correlations between typical Japanese stocks collected through Yahoo!Japan website ( http://finance.yahoo.co.jp/ ). By making use of multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) for the cross-correlation matrices, we draw two-dimensional scattered plots in which each point corresponds to each stock. To make a clustering for these data plots, we utilize the mixture of Gaussians to fit the data set to several Gaussian densities. By minimizing the so-called Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with respect to parameters in the mixture, we attempt to specify the best possible mixture of Gaussians. It might be naturally assumed that all the two-dimensional data points of stocks shrink into a single small region when some economic crisis takes place. The justification of this assumption is numerically checked for the empirical Japanese stock data, for instance, those around 11 March 2011.

Fuzzy-based decision strategy in real-time strategic games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volna, Eva

2017-11-01

The aim of this article is to describe our own gaming artificial intelligence for OpenTTD, which is a real-time building strategy game. A multi-agent system with fuzzy decision-making was used for the proposal itself. The multiagent system was chosen because real-time strategy games achieve great complexity and require decomposition of the problem into individual problems, which are then solved by individual cooperating agents. The system becomes then more stable and easily expandable. The fuzzy approach makes the decision-making process of strategies easier thanks to the use of uncertainty. In the conclusion, own experimental results were compared with other approaches.

Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

DOEpatents

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

2005-08-30

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Determine the optimal carrier selection for a logistics network based on multi-commodity reliability criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yi-Kuei; Yeh, Cheng-Ta

2013-05-01

From the perspective of supply chain management, the selected carrier plays an important role in freight delivery. This article proposes a new criterion of multi-commodity reliability and optimises the carrier selection based on such a criterion for logistics networks with routes and nodes, over which multiple commodities are delivered. Carrier selection concerns the selection of exactly one carrier to deliver freight on each route. The capacity of each carrier has several available values associated with a probability distribution, since some of a carrier's capacity may be reserved for various orders. Therefore, the logistics network, given any carrier selection, is a multi-commodity multi-state logistics network. Multi-commodity reliability is defined as a probability that the logistics network can satisfy a customer's demand for various commodities, and is a performance indicator for freight delivery. To solve this problem, this study proposes an optimisation algorithm that integrates genetic algorithm, minimal paths and Recursive Sum of Disjoint Products. A practical example in which multi-sized LCD monitors are delivered from China to Germany is considered to illustrate the solution procedure.

The target-to-foils shift in simultaneous and sequential lineups.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E; Davey, Sherrie L

2005-04-01

A theoretical cornerstone in eyewitness identification research is the proposition that witnesses, in making decisions from standard simultaneous lineups, make relative judgments. The present research considers two sources of support for this proposal. An experiment by G. L. Wells (1993) showed that if the target is removed from a lineup, witnesses shift their responses to pick foils, rather than rejecting the lineups, a result we will term a target-to-foils shift. Additional empirical support is provided by results from sequential lineups which typically show higher accuracy than simultaneous lineups, presumably because of a decrease in the use of relative judgments in making identification decisions. The combination of these two lines of research suggests that the target-to-foils shift should be reduced in sequential lineups relative to simultaneous lineups. Results of two experiments showed an overall advantage for sequential lineups, but also showed a target-to-foils shift equal in size for simultaneous and sequential lineups. Additional analyses indicated that the target-to-foils shift in sequential lineups was moderated in part by an order effect and was produced with (Experiment 2) or without (Experiment 1) a shift in decision criterion. This complex pattern of results suggests that more work is needed to understand the processes which underlie decisions in simultaneous and sequential lineups.

Multi-objective optimization of solid waste flows: environmentally sustainable strategies for municipalities.

PubMed

Minciardi, Riccardo; Paolucci, Massimo; Robba, Michela; Sacile, Roberto

2008-11-01

An approach to sustainable municipal solid waste (MSW) management is presented, with the aim of supporting the decision on the optimal flows of solid waste sent to landfill, recycling and different types of treatment plants, whose sizes are also decision variables. This problem is modeled with a non-linear, multi-objective formulation. Specifically, four objectives to be minimized have been taken into account, which are related to economic costs, unrecycled waste, sanitary landfill disposal and environmental impact (incinerator emissions). An interactive reference point procedure has been developed to support decision making; these methods are considered appropriate for multi-objective decision problems in environmental applications. In addition, interactive methods are generally preferred by decision makers as they can be directly involved in the various steps of the decision process. Some results deriving from the application of the proposed procedure are presented. The application of the procedure is exemplified by considering the interaction with two different decision makers who are assumed to be in charge of planning the MSW system in the municipality of Genova (Italy).

Family involvement in medical decision-making: Perceptions of nursing and psychology students.

PubMed

Itzhaki, Michal; Hildesheimer, Galya; Barnoy, Sivia; Katz, Michael

2016-05-01

Family members often rely on health care professionals to guide and support them through the decision-making process. Although family involvement in medical decisions should be included in the preservice curriculum for the health care professions, perceptions of students in caring professions on family involvement in medical decision-making have not yet been examined. To examine the perceptions of nursing and psychology students on family involvement in medical decision-making for seriously ill patients. A descriptive cross-sectional design was used. First year undergraduate nursing and psychology students studying for their Bachelor of Arts degree were recruited. Perceptions were assessed with a questionnaire constructed based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which examines decision-maker preferences. The questionnaire consisted of two parts referring to the respondent once as the patient and then as the family caregiver. Questionnaires were completed by 116 nursing students and 156 psychology students. Most were of the opinion that family involvement in decision-making is appropriate, especially when the patient is incapable of making decisions. Nursing students were more inclined than psychology students to think that financial, emotional, and value-based considerations should be part of the family's involvement in decision-making. Both groups of students perceived the emotional consideration as most acceptable, whereas the financial consideration was considered the least acceptable. Nursing and psychology students perceive family involvement in medical decision-making as appropriate. In order to train students to support families in the process of decision-making, further research should examine Shared Decision-Making (SDM) programs, which involve patient and clinician collaboration in health care decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NEV supply chain coordination and sustainability considering sales effort and risk aversion under the CVaR criterion

PubMed Central

Xu, Xingzhong

2018-01-01

In a two-echelon new energy vehicle (NEV) supply chain consisting of a risk-neutral manufacturer and a risk-averse retailer, the coordination and sustainability problem is investigated. The risk-averse retailer, who makes sales effort and undertakes the incurred effort cost, decides the order quantity and sales effort level under the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) criterion. We derive the optimal centralized decisions of a vertically integrated supply chain where the retailer is owned by the manufacturer. Taking such a centralized case as the benchmark, we prove that the subsidy-sharing-based wholesale price (SS-WP) contract fails to coordinate the NEV supply chain under the decentralized case where the retailer makes decisions independently. Then we design a subsidy-sharing-based sales rebate/penalty (SS-SRP) contract and derive the contract parameters to achieve coordination. We evaluate the coordination efficiency of this contract and find that a well-designed SS-SRP contract can promote the NEV sales and lead to a Pareto-improving win-win situation for both the NEV manufacturer and retailer compared to the non-coordination case. A series of numerical experiments are carried out to compare the effects of significant parameters under the SS-WP and SS-SRP contract and provide additional observations and implications, including an indication of the necessary conditions to sustainably maintain the NEV supply chain. PMID:29912926

A risk-based multi-objective model for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naserizade, Sareh S.; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Montaseri, Hossein

2018-02-01

In this study, a new stochastic model based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and multi-objective optimization methods is developed for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system (WDS). This model determines minimization of risk which is caused by simultaneous multi-point contamination injection in WDS using CVaR approach. The CVaR considers uncertainties of contamination injection in the form of probability distribution function and calculates low-probability extreme events. In this approach, extreme losses occur at tail of the losses distribution function. Four-objective optimization model based on NSGA-II algorithm is developed to minimize losses of contamination injection (through CVaR of affected population and detection time) and also minimize the two other main criteria of optimal placement of sensors including probability of undetected events and cost. Finally, to determine the best solution, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), as a subgroup of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach, is utilized to rank the alternatives on the trade-off curve among objective functions. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the importance of each criterion on PROMETHEE results considering three relative weighting scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is examined through applying it to Lamerd WDS in the southwestern part of Iran. The PROMETHEE suggests 6 sensors with suitable distribution that approximately cover all regions of WDS. Optimal values related to CVaR of affected population and detection time as well as probability of undetected events for the best optimal solution are equal to 17,055 persons, 31 mins and 0.045%, respectively. The obtained results of the proposed methodology in Lamerd WDS show applicability of CVaR-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model for incorporating the main uncertainties of contamination injection in order to evaluate extreme value of losses in WDS.

Application of optimal control principles to describe the supervisory control behavior of AAA crew members

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hale, C.; Valentino, G. J.

1982-01-01

Supervisory decision making and control behavior within a C(3) oriented, ground based weapon system is being studied. The program involves empirical investigation of the sequence of control strategies used during engagement of aircraft targets. An engagement is conceptually divided into several stages which include initial information processing activity, tracking, and ongoing adaptive control decisions. Following a brief description of model parameters, two experiments which served as initial investigation into the accuracy of assumptions regarding the importance of situation assessment in procedure selection are outlined. Preliminary analysis of the results upheld the validity of the assumptions regarding strategic information processing and cue-criterion relationship learning. These results indicate that this model structure should be useful in studies of supervisory decision behavior.

Optimization of Multi-Fidelity Computer Experiments via the EQIE Criterion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Xu; Tuo, Rui; Jeff Wu, C. F.

Computer experiments based on mathematical models are powerful tools for understanding physical processes. This article addresses the problem of kriging-based optimization for deterministic computer experiments with tunable accuracy. Our approach is to use multi- delity computer experiments with increasing accuracy levels and a nonstationary Gaussian process model. We propose an optimization scheme that sequentially adds new computer runs by following two criteria. The first criterion, called EQI, scores candidate inputs with given level of accuracy, and the second criterion, called EQIE, scores candidate combinations of inputs and accuracy. Here, from simulation results and a real example using finite element analysis,more » our method out-performs the expected improvement (EI) criterion which works for single-accuracy experiments.« less

Optimization of Multi-Fidelity Computer Experiments via the EQIE Criterion

DOE PAGES

He, Xu; Tuo, Rui; Jeff Wu, C. F.

2017-01-31

Computer experiments based on mathematical models are powerful tools for understanding physical processes. This article addresses the problem of kriging-based optimization for deterministic computer experiments with tunable accuracy. Our approach is to use multi- delity computer experiments with increasing accuracy levels and a nonstationary Gaussian process model. We propose an optimization scheme that sequentially adds new computer runs by following two criteria. The first criterion, called EQI, scores candidate inputs with given level of accuracy, and the second criterion, called EQIE, scores candidate combinations of inputs and accuracy. Here, from simulation results and a real example using finite element analysis,more » our method out-performs the expected improvement (EI) criterion which works for single-accuracy experiments.« less

Competence, practical rationality and what a patient values.

PubMed

Craigie, Jillian

2011-07-01

According to the principle of patient autonomy, patients have the right to be self-determining in decisions about their own medical care, which includes the right to refuse treatment. However, a treatment refusal may legitimately be overridden in cases where the decision is judged to be incompetent. It has recently been proposed that in assessments of competence, attention should be paid to the evaluative judgments that guide patients' treatment decisions. In this paper I examine this claim in light of theories of practical rationality, focusing on the difficult case of an anorexic person who is judged to be competent and refuses treatment, thereby putting themselves at risk of serious harm. I argue that the standard criteria for competence assess whether a treatment decision satisfies the goals of practical decision-making, and that this same criterion can be applied to a patient's decision-guiding commitments. As a consequence I propose that a particular understanding of practical rationality offers a theoretical framework for justifying involuntary treatment in the anorexia case. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Decision problems in management of construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafranko, E.

2017-10-01

In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.

PubMed

Lee, Chih-Sheng

2012-05-01

This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of Ethics Decision-Making Frameworks by Canadian Ethics Consultants: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Kaposy, Chris; Brunger, Fern; Maddalena, Victor; Singleton, Richard

2016-10-01

In this study, Canadian healthcare ethics consultants describe their use of ethics decision-making frameworks. Our research finds that ethics consultants in Canada use multi-purpose ethics decision-making frameworks, as well as targeted frameworks that focus on reaching an ethical resolution to a particular healthcare issue, such as adverse event reporting, or difficult triage scenarios. Several interviewees mention the influence that the accreditation process in Canadian healthcare organizations has on the adoption and use of such frameworks. Some of the ethics consultants we interviewed also report on their reluctance to use these tools. Limited empirical work has been done previously on the use of ethics decision-making frameworks. This study begins to fill this gap in our understanding of the work of healthcare ethics consultants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decision Making in the Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking In response to a problem, This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Hybrid MCDA Methods to Integrate Multiple Ecosystem Services in Forest Management Planning: A Critical Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhde, Britta; Andreas Hahn, W.; Griess, Verena C.; Knoke, Thomas

2015-08-01

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.

Hybrid MCDA Methods to Integrate Multiple Ecosystem Services in Forest Management Planning: A Critical Review.

PubMed

Uhde, Britta; Hahn, W Andreas; Griess, Verena C; Knoke, Thomas

2015-08-01

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.

Decision technology.

PubMed

Edwards, W; Fasolo, B

2001-01-01

This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.

Incentives for Optimal Multi-level Allocation of HIV Prevention Resources

PubMed Central

Malvankar, Monali M.; Zaric, Gregory S.

2013-01-01

HIV/AIDS prevention funds are often allocated at multiple levels of decision-making. Optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds maximizes the number of HIV infections averted. However, decision makers often allocate using simple heuristics such as proportional allocation. We evaluate the impact of using incentives to encourage optimal allocation in a two-level decision-making process. We model an incentive based decision-making process consisting of an upper-level decision maker allocating funds to a single lower-level decision maker who then distributes funds to local programs. We assume that the lower-level utility function is linear in the amount of the budget received from the upper-level, the fraction of funds reserved for proportional allocation, and the number of infections averted. We assume that the upper level objective is to maximize the number of infections averted. We illustrate with an example using data from California, U.S. PMID:23766551

Human striatal activation during adjustment of the response criterion in visual word recognition.

PubMed

Kuchinke, Lars; Hofmann, Markus J; Jacobs, Arthur M; Frühholz, Sascha; Tamm, Sascha; Herrmann, Manfred

2011-02-01

Results of recent computational modelling studies suggest that a general function of the striatum in human cognition is related to shifting decision criteria in selection processes. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in 21 healthy subjects to examine the hemodynamic responses when subjects shift their response criterion on a trial-by-trial basis in the lexical decision paradigm. Trial-by-trial criterion setting is obtained when subjects respond faster in trials following a word trial than in trials following nonword trials - irrespective of the lexicality of the current trial. Since selection demands are equally high in the current trials, we expected to observe neural activations that are related to response criterion shifting. The behavioural data show sequential effects with faster responses in trials following word trials compared to trials following nonword trials, suggesting that subjects shifted their response criterion on a trial-by-trial basis. The neural responses revealed a signal increase in the striatum only in trials following word trials. This striatal activation is therefore likely to be related to response criterion setting. It demonstrates a role of the striatum in shifting decision criteria in visual word recognition, which cannot be attributed to pure error-related processing or the selection of a preferred response. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average.

PubMed

Gorsevski, Pece V; Donevska, Katerina R; Mitrovski, Cvetko D; Frizado, Joseph P

2012-02-01

This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the fuzzy topsis multi-attribute decision making method to determine scholarship recipients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvanizam, I.

2018-03-01

Some scholarships have been routinely offered by Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of the Republic of Indonesia for students at Syiah Kuala University. In reality, the scholarship selection process is becoming subjective and highly complex problem. Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) techniques can be a solution in order to solve scholarship selection problem. In this study, we demonstrated the application of a fuzzy TOPSIS as an MADM technique by using a numerical example in order to calculate a triangular fuzzy number for the fuzzy data onto a normalized weight. We then use this normalized value to construct the normalized fuzzy decision matrix. We finally use the fuzzy TOPSIS to rank alternatives in descending order based on the relative closeness to the ideal solution. The result in terms of final ranking shows slightly different from the previous work.

[Involving patients, the insured and the general public in healthcare decision making].

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin

2016-01-01

No doubt, the public should be involved in healthcare decision making, especially when decision makers from politics and self-government agencies are faced with the difficult task of setting priorities. There is a general consensus on the need for a stronger patient centeredness, even in HTA processes, and internationally different ways of public participation are discussed and tested in decision making processes. This paper describes how the public can be involved in different decision situations, and it shows how preference measurement methods are currently being used in an international context to support decision making. It distinguishes between different levels of decision making on health technologies: approval, assessment, pricing, and finally utilization. The range of participation efforts extends from qualitative surveys of patients' needs (Citizen Councils of NICE in the UK) to science-based documentation of quantitative patient preferences, such as in the current pilot projects of the FDA in the US and the EMA at the European level. Possible approaches for the elicitation and documentation of preference structures and trade-offs in relation to alternate health technologies are decision aids, such as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), that provide the necessary information for weighting and prioritizing decision criteria. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Designing and Evaluating Participatory Cyber-Infrastructure Systems for Multi-Scale Citizen Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, Gregory J.

2010-01-01

Widespread and continuous spatial and temporal environmental data is essential for effective environmental monitoring, sustainable natural resource management, and ecologically responsible decisions. Our environmental monitoring, data management and reporting enterprise is not matched to current problems, concerns, and decision-making needs.…

Impact of Decision Criteria on Federal Aviation Administration Certification of Military Commercial Derivative Aircraft

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

Capt Low was a member of the Sigma Iota Epsilon professional management fraternity. He has performed as an on-equipment and off-equipment...FAA Certification, Military Commercial Derivative Aircraft, Multi-Attribute Decision Making 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials - an example in hemato-oncology.

PubMed

Jacob, Louis; Uvarova, Maria; Boulet, Sandrine; Begaj, Inva; Chevret, Sylvie

2016-06-02

Multi-Arm Multi-Stage designs aim at comparing several new treatments to a common reference, in order to select or drop any treatment arm to move forward when such evidence already exists based on interim analyses. We redesigned a Bayesian adaptive design initially proposed for dose-finding, focusing our interest in the comparison of multiple experimental drugs to a control on a binary criterion measure. We redesigned a phase II clinical trial that randomly allocates patients across three (one control and two experimental) treatment arms to assess dropping decision rules. We were interested in dropping any arm due to futility, either based on historical control rate (first rule) or comparison across arms (second rule), and in stopping experimental arm due to its ability to reach a sufficient response rate (third rule), using the difference of response probabilities in Bayes binomial trials between the treated and control as a measure of treatment benefit. Simulations were then conducted to investigate the decision operating characteristics under a variety of plausible scenarios, as a function of the decision thresholds. Our findings suggest that one experimental treatment was less efficient than the control and could have been dropped from the trial based on a sample of approximately 20 instead of 40 patients. In the simulation study, stopping decisions were reached sooner for the first rule than for the second rule, with close mean estimates of response rates and small bias. According to the decision threshold, the mean sample size to detect the required 0.15 absolute benefit ranged from 63 to 70 (rule 3) with false negative rates of less than 2 % (rule 1) up to 6 % (rule 2). In contrast, detecting a 0.15 inferiority in response rates required a sample size ranging on average from 23 to 35 (rules 1 and 2, respectively) with a false positive rate ranging from 3.6 to 0.6 % (rule 3). Adaptive trial design is a good way to improve clinical trials. It allows removing ineffective drugs and reducing the trial sample size, while maintaining unbiased estimates. Decision thresholds can be set according to predefined fixed error decision rates. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01342692 .

Shared decision-making in medical encounters regarding breast cancer treatment: the contribution of methodological triangulation.

PubMed

Durif-Bruckert, C; Roux, P; Morelle, M; Mignotte, H; Faure, C; Moumjid-Ferdjaoui, N

2015-07-01

The aim of this study on shared decision-making in the doctor-patient encounter about surgical treatment for early-stage breast cancer, conducted in a regional cancer centre in France, was to further the understanding of patient perceptions on shared decision-making. The study used methodological triangulation to collect data (both quantitative and qualitative) about patient preferences in the context of a clinical consultation in which surgeons followed a shared decision-making protocol. Data were analysed from a multi-disciplinary research perspective (social psychology and health economics). The triangulated data collection methods were questionnaires (n = 132), longitudinal interviews (n = 47) and observations of consultations (n = 26). Methodological triangulation revealed levels of divergence and complementarity between qualitative and quantitative results that suggest new perspectives on the three inter-related notions of decision-making, participation and information. Patients' responses revealed important differences between shared decision-making and participation per se. The authors note that subjecting patients to a normative behavioural model of shared decision-making in an era when paradigms of medical authority are shifting may undermine the patient's quest for what he or she believes is a more important right: a guarantee of the best care available. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Applying a multi-replication framework to support dynamic situation assessment and predictive capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, Craig; McGraw, Robert M.; Steinman, Jeffrey S.

2005-05-01

Technological advances and emerging threats reduce the time between target detection and action to an order of a few minutes. To effectively assist with the decision-making process, C4I decision support tools must quickly and dynamically predict and assess alternative Courses Of Action (COAs) to assist Commanders in anticipating potential outcomes. These capabilities can be provided through the faster-than-real-time predictive simulation of plans that are continuously re-calibrating with the real-time picture. This capability allows decision-makers to assess the effects of re-tasking opportunities, providing the decision-maker with tremendous freedom to make time-critical, mid-course decisions. This paper presents an overview and demonstrates the use of a software infrastructure that supports DSAP capabilities. These DSAP capabilities are demonstrated through the use of a Multi-Replication Framework that supports (1) predictivie simulations using JSAF (Joint Semi-Automated Forces); (2) real-time simulation, also using JSAF, as a state estimation mechanism; and, (3) real-time C4I data updates through TBMCS (Theater Battle Management Core Systems). This infrastructure allows multiple replications of a simulation to be executed simultaneously over a grid faster-than-real-time, calibrated with live data feeds. A cost evaluator mechanism analyzes potential outcomes and prunes simulations that diverge from the real-time picture. In particular, this paper primarily serves to walk a user through the process for using the Multi-Replication Framework providing an enhanced decision aid.

[Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology resource allocation and assessment: so far and so near?

PubMed

Campolina, Alessandro Gonçalves; Soárez, Patrícia Coelho De; Amaral, Fábio Vieira do; Abe, Jair Minoro

2017-10-26

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an emerging tool that allows the integration of relevant factors for health technology assessment (HTA). This study aims to present a summary of the methodological characteristics of MCDA: definitions, approaches, applications, and implementation stages. A case study was conducted in the São Paulo State Cancer Institute (ICESP) in order to understand the perspectives of decision-makers in the process of drafting a recommendation for the incorporation of technology in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS), through a report by the Brazilian National Commission for the Incorporation of Technologies in the SUS (CONITEC). Paraconsistent annotated evidential logic Eτ was the methodological approach adopted in the study, since it can serve as an underlying logic for constructs capable of synthesizing objective information (from the scientific literature) and subjective information (from experts' values and preferences in the area of knowledge). It also allows the incorporation of conflicting information (contradictions), as well as vague and even incomplete information in the valuation process, resulting from imperfection of the available scientific evidence. The method has the advantages of allowing explicit consideration of the criteria that influenced the decision, facilitating follow-up and visualization of process stages, allowing assessment of the contribution of each criterion separately, and in aggregate, to the decision's outcome, facilitating the discussion of diverging perspectives by different stakeholder groups, and increasing the understanding of the resulting recommendations. The use of an explicit MCDA approach should facilitate conflict mediation and optimize participation by different stakeholder groups.

An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

PubMed

Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

2017-01-01

Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting the training outcome of individual working dogs.

On optimal soft-decision demodulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, L. N.

1975-01-01

Wozencraft and Kennedy have suggested that the appropriate demodulator criterion of goodness is the cut-off rate of the discrete memoryless channel created by the modulation system; the criterion of goodness adopted in this note is the symmetric cut-off rate which differs from the former criterion only in that the signals are assumed equally likely. Massey's necessary condition for optimal demodulation of binary signals is generalized to M-ary signals. It is shown that the optimal demodulator decision regions in likelihood space are bounded by hyperplanes. An iterative method is formulated for finding these optimal decision regions from an initial good quess. For additive white Gaussian noise, the corresponding optimal decision regions in signal space are bounded by hypersurfaces with hyperplane asymptotes; these asymptotes themselves bound the decision regions of a demodulator which, in several examples, is shown to be virtually optimal. In many cases, the necessary condition for demodulator optimality is also sufficient, but a counter example to its general sufficiency is given.

Conflict and Criterion Setting in Recognition Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran, Tim; DeBuse, Casey; Leynes, P. Andrew

2007-01-01

Recognition memory requires both retrieval processes and control processes such as criterion setting. Decision criteria were manipulated by offering different payoffs for correct "old" versus "new" responses. Criterion setting influenced the following late-occurring (1,000+ ms), conflict-sensitive event-related brain potential (ERP) components:…

Choices in health care: a contribution from The Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, W P

1995-10-01

In this paper it will be argued that choices in health care are necessary, desirable and just. An important choice that each society has to make, is: what basic services should be available to everybody independently of an individual's purchasing power? The Dutch Government Committee on Choices in Health Care advised the use of four criteria: basic care must be necessary, effective, efficient and cannot be left to the individual's responsibility. Because important decisions with respect to the second criterion-the effectiveness of care-are made by physicians in the consulting room or at the operating table, physicians do have a primary responsibility in making the right choices.

Multilevel Evaluation Systems Project. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, Joan L.

Several studies were conducted in 1987 by the Multilevel Evaluation Systems Project, which focuses on developing a model for a multi-purpose, multi-user evaluation system to facilitate educational decision making and evaluation. The project model emphasizes on-going integrated assessment of individuals, classes, and programs using a variety of…

Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Cung, E. S.

2014-09-01

This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines VIKOR method with fuzzified data to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multi-criteria evaluation indicators. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used to consider the uncertainty of weights and the crisp data of proxy variables. This approach can effectively propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the south Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the results from general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods, such as those developed by Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland. The evaluated priorities were significantly dependent on the employed decision-making method. The proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.

Gis-Based Site Selection for Underground Natural Resources Using Fuzzy Ahp-Owa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabzevari, A. R.; Delavar, M. R.

2017-09-01

Fuel consumption has significantly increased due to the growth of the population. A solution to address this problem is the underground storage of natural gas. The first step to reach this goal is to select suitable places for the storage. In this study, site selection for the underground natural gas reservoirs has been performed using a multi-criteria decision-making in a GIS environment. The "Ordered Weighted Average" (OWA) operator is one of the multi-criteria decision-making methods for ranking the criteria and consideration of uncertainty in the interaction among the criteria. In this paper, Fuzzy AHP_OWA (FAHP_OWA) is used to determine optimal sites for the underground natural gas reservoirs. Fuzzy AHP_OWA considers the decision maker's risk taking and risk aversion during the decision-making process. Gas consumption rate, temperature, distance from main transportation network, distance from gas production centers, population density and distance from gas distribution networks are the criteria used in this research. Results show that the northeast and west of Iran and the areas around Tehran (Tehran and Alborz Provinces) have a higher attraction for constructing a natural gas reservoir. The performance of the used method was also evaluated. This evaluation was performed using the location of the existing natural gas reservoirs in the country and the site selection maps for each of the quantifiers. It is verified that the method used in this study is capable of modeling different decision-making strategies used by the decision maker with about 88 percent of agreement between the modeling and test data.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Cost-Utility Analysis: Current Methodological Issues and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark J. C.; Dubois, Dominique J.

2011-01-01

The use of cost–effectiveness as final criterion in the reimbursement process for listing of new pharmaceuticals can be questioned from a scientific and policy point of view. There is a lack of consensus on main methodological issues and consequently we may question the appropriateness of the use of cost–effectiveness data in health care decision-making. Another concern is the appropriateness of the selection and use of an incremental cost–effectiveness threshold (Cost/QALY). In this review, we focus mainly on only some key methodological concerns relating to discounting, the utility concept, cost assessment, and modeling methodologies. Finally we will consider the relevance of some other important decision criteria, like social values and equity. PMID:21713127

On multi-site damage identification using single-site training data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthorpe, R. J.; Manson, G.; Worden, K.

2017-11-01

This paper proposes a methodology for developing multi-site damage location systems for engineering structures that can be trained using single-site damaged state data only. The methodology involves training a sequence of binary classifiers based upon single-site damage data and combining the developed classifiers into a robust multi-class damage locator. In this way, the multi-site damage identification problem may be decomposed into a sequence of binary decisions. In this paper Support Vector Classifiers are adopted as the means of making these binary decisions. The proposed methodology represents an advancement on the state of the art in the field of multi-site damage identification which require either: (1) full damaged state data from single- and multi-site damage cases or (2) the development of a physics-based model to make multi-site model predictions. The potential benefit of the proposed methodology is that a significantly reduced number of recorded damage states may be required in order to train a multi-site damage locator without recourse to physics-based model predictions. In this paper it is first demonstrated that Support Vector Classification represents an appropriate approach to the multi-site damage location problem, with methods for combining binary classifiers discussed. Next, the proposed methodology is demonstrated and evaluated through application to a real engineering structure - a Piper Tomahawk trainer aircraft wing - with its performance compared to classifiers trained using the full damaged-state dataset.

Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

2013-01-01

Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

2015 Gout classification criteria: an American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism collaborative initiative

PubMed Central

Neogi, Tuhina; Jansen, Tim L Th A; Dalbeth, Nicola; Fransen, Jaap; Schumacher, H Ralph; Berendsen, Dianne; Brown, Melanie; Choi, Hyon; Edwards, N Lawrence; Janssens, Hein J E M; Lioté, Frédéric; Naden, Raymond P; Nuki, George; Ogdie, Alexis; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Saag, Kenneth; Singh, Jasvinder A; Sundy, John S; Tausche, Anne-Kathrin; Vaquez-Mellado, Janitzia; Yarows, Steven A; Taylor, William J

2015-01-01

Objective Existing criteria for the classification of gout have suboptimal sensitivity and/or specificity, and were developed at a time when advanced imaging was not available. The current effort was undertaken to develop new classification criteria for gout. Methods An international group of investigators, supported by the American College of Rheumatology and the European League Against Rheumatism, conducted a systematic review of the literature on advanced imaging of gout, a diagnostic study in which the presence of monosodium urate monohydrate (MSU) crystals in synovial fluid or tophus was the gold standard, a ranking exercise of paper patient cases, and a multi-criterion decision analysis exercise. These data formed the basis for developing the classification criteria, which were tested in an independent data set. Results The entry criterion for the new classification criteria requires the occurrence of at least one episode of peripheral joint or bursal swelling, pain, or tenderness. The presence of MSU crystals in a symptomatic joint/bursa (ie, synovial fluid) or in a tophus is a sufficient criterion for classification of the subject as having gout, and does not require further scoring. The domains of the new classification criteria include clinical (pattern of joint/bursa involvement, characteristics and time course of symptomatic episodes), laboratory (serum urate, MSU-negative synovial fluid aspirate), and imaging (double-contour sign on ultrasound or urate on dual-energy CT, radiographic gout-related erosion). The sensitivity and specificity of the criteria are high (92% and 89%, respectively). Conclusions The new classification criteria, developed using a data-driven and decision-analytic approach, have excellent performance characteristics and incorporate current state-of-the-art evidence regarding gout. PMID:26359487

Placement decisions and disparities among aboriginal groups: an application of the decision making ecology through multi-level analysis.

PubMed

Fluke, John D; Chabot, Martin; Fallon, Barbara; MacLaurin, Bruce; Blackstock, Cindy

2010-01-01

This paper examined the relative influence of clinical and organizational characteristics on the decision to place a child in out-of-home care at the conclusion of a child maltreatment investigation. It tested the hypothesis that extraneous factors, specifically, organizational characteristics, impact the decision to place a child in out-of-home care. A secondary aim was to identify possible decision making influences related to disparities in placement decisions tied to Aboriginal children. Research suggests that the Aboriginal status of the child and structural risk factors affecting the family, such as poverty and poor housing, substantially account for this overrepresentation. The decision to place a child in out-of-home care was examined using data from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect. This child welfare dataset collected information about the results of nearly 5,000 child maltreatment investigations as well as a description of the characteristics of the workers and organization responsible for conducting those investigations. Multi-level statistical models were developed using MPlus software, which can accommodate dichotomous outcome variables, which are more reflective of decision making in child welfare. MPlus allows the specific case of the logistic link function for binary outcome variables under maximum likelihood estimation. Final models revealed the importance of the number of Aboriginal reports to an organization as a key second level predictor of the placement decision. It is the only second level factor that remains in the final model. This finding was very stable when tested over several different levels of proportionate caseload representation ranging from greater than 50% to 20% of the caseload. Disparities among Aboriginal children in child welfare decision making were identified at the agency level. The study provides additional evidence supporting the possibility that one source of overrepresentation of Aboriginal children in the Canadian foster care system is a lack of appropriate resources at the agency or community level. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidimensional indexing structure for use with linear optimization queries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Lawrence David (Inventor); Castelli, Vittorio (Inventor); Chang, Yuan-Chi (Inventor); Li, Chung-Sheng (Inventor); Smith, John Richard (Inventor)

2002-01-01

Linear optimization queries, which usually arise in various decision support and resource planning applications, are queries that retrieve top N data records (where N is an integer greater than zero) which satisfy a specific optimization criterion. The optimization criterion is to either maximize or minimize a linear equation. The coefficients of the linear equation are given at query time. Methods and apparatus are disclosed for constructing, maintaining and utilizing a multidimensional indexing structure of database records to improve the execution speed of linear optimization queries. Database records with numerical attributes are organized into a number of layers and each layer represents a geometric structure called convex hull. Such linear optimization queries are processed by searching from the outer-most layer of this multi-layer indexing structure inwards. At least one record per layer will satisfy the query criterion and the number of layers needed to be searched depends on the spatial distribution of records, the query-issued linear coefficients, and N, the number of records to be returned. When N is small compared to the total size of the database, answering the query typically requires searching only a small fraction of all relevant records, resulting in a tremendous speedup as compared to linearly scanning the entire dataset.

Optimizing structure of complex technical system by heterogeneous vector criterion in interval form

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lysenko, A. V.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Yurkov, N. K.; Grishko, A. K.

2018-05-01

The article examines the methods of development and multi-criteria choice of the preferred structural variant of the complex technical system at the early stages of its life cycle in the absence of sufficient knowledge of parameters and variables for optimizing this structure. The suggested methods takes into consideration the various fuzzy input data connected with the heterogeneous quality criteria of the designed system and the parameters set by their variation range. The suggested approach is based on the complex use of methods of interval analysis, fuzzy sets theory, and the decision-making theory. As a result, the method for normalizing heterogeneous quality criteria has been developed on the basis of establishing preference relations in the interval form. The method of building preferential relations in the interval form on the basis of the vector of heterogeneous quality criteria suggest the use of membership functions instead of the coefficients considering the criteria value. The former show the degree of proximity of the realization of the designed system to the efficient or Pareto optimal variants. The study analyzes the example of choosing the optimal variant for the complex system using heterogeneous quality criteria.

MULTI-SCALED VULNERABILITY ANALYSES: IMPROVING DECISION-MAKING AT REGIONAL TO LOCAL LEVELS THROUGH PARTNERSHIP

EPA Science Inventory

Decision-makers at all scales are faced with setting priorities for both use of limited resources and for risk management. While there are all kinds of monitoring data and models to project conditions at different spatial and temporal scales, synthesized information to establish ...

Dopamine, paranormal belief, and the detection of meaningful stimuli.

PubMed

Krummenacher, Peter; Mohr, Christine; Haker, Helene; Brugger, Peter

2010-08-01

Dopamine (DA) is suggested to improve perceptual and cognitive decisions by increasing the signal-to-noise ratio. Somewhat paradoxically, a hyperdopaminergia (arguably more accentuated in the right hemisphere) has also been implied in the genesis of unusual experiences such as hallucinations and paranormal thought. To test these opposing assumptions, we used two lateralized decision tasks, one with lexical (tapping left-hemisphere functions), the other with facial stimuli (tapping right-hemisphere functions). Participants were 40 healthy right-handed men, of whom 20 reported unusual, "paranormal" experiences and beliefs ("believers"), whereas the remaining participants were unexperienced and critical ("skeptics"). In a between-subject design, levodopa (200 mg) or placebo administration was balanced between belief groups (double-blind procedure). For each task and visual field, we calculated sensitivity (d') and response tendency (criterion) derived from signal detection theory. Results showed the typical right visual field advantage for the lexical decision task and a higher d' for verbal than facial stimuli. For the skeptics, d' was lower in the levodopa than in the placebo group. Criterion analyses revealed that believers favored false alarms over misses, whereas skeptics displayed the opposite preference. Unexpectedly, under levodopa, these decision preferences were lower in both groups. We thus infer that levodopa (1) decreases sensitivity in perceptual-cognitive decisions, but only in skeptics, and (2) makes skeptics less and believers slightly more conservative. These results stand at odd to the common view that DA generally improves signal-to-noise ratios. Paranormal ideation seems an important personality dimension and should be assessed in investigations on the detection of signals in noise.

'The biggest thing is trying to live for two people': Spousal experiences of supporting decision-making participation for partners with TBI.

PubMed

Knox, Lucy; Douglas, Jacinta M; Bigby, Christine

2015-01-01

To understand how the spouses of individuals with severe TBI experience the process of supporting their partners with decision-making. This study adopted a constructivist grounded theory approach, with data consisting of in-depth interviews conducted with spouses over a 12-month period. Data were analysed through an iterative process of open and focused coding, identification of emergent categories and exploration of relationships between categories. Participants were four spouses of individuals with severe TBI (with moderate-severe disability). Spouses had shared committed relationships (marriage or domestic partnerships) for at least 4 years at initial interview. Three spouses were in relationships that had commenced following injury. Two main themes emerged from the data. The first identified the saliency of the relational space in which decision-making took place. The second revealed the complex nature of decision-making within the spousal relationship. Spouses experience decision-making as a complex multi-stage process underpinned by a number of relational factors. Increased understanding of this process can guide health professionals in their provision of support for couples in exploring decision-making participation after injury.

Energy efficiency business options for industrial end users in Latin American competitive energy markets: The case of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botero, Sergio

2002-01-01

Energy markets today in Latin America and worldwide are being restructured from monopolies, either state-owned or privately-owned, to be more openly competitive and incorporate more participation from the private sector. Thus, the schemes that were formerly developed to foster end use energy efficiency are no longer applicable because they were based on mandatory regulations made with political decisions, without sufficiently considering economic feasibility. A consensus exists that the only way energy efficiency could survive in this new paradigm is by being market oriented, giving better services, and additional options to users. However; there is very little information on what end users prefer, and which options would most satisfy customers. Using Colombia as a case study, this research determines and categorizes the energy efficiency business options for large energy end users that can freely participate in the competitive energy market. The energy efficiency market is understood as a market of services aiming to increase efficiency in energy use. These services can be grouped into seven business options. A survey, following the descriptive method, was sent to energy end users in order to determine their preferences for specific energy efficiency business options, as well as the decision-making criteria taken into account for such options. This data was categorized in ten industry groups. As a conclusion, energy efficiency providers should adapt not only to the economic activity or processes of each customer, but also to the potential business options. It was also found that not all industries consider performance contracting as their most preferred option, as a matter of fact, some industries show much higher preference for conventional business options. Among end users, the divergence in option preferences contrasted with the convergence in decision-making criteria. The decision-making criteria "cost-benefit ratio" overwhelmed all other criterion. End users appear to chose a specific energy efficiency option based mostly on obtaining better economic returns, giving low consideration to other criterion that feature differences among the energy efficiency options.

Reconnaissance blind multi-chess: an experimentation platform for ISR sensor fusion and resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, Andrew J.; Richardson, Casey L.; Kain, Sean M.; Stankiewicz, Paul G.; Guseman, Paul R.; Schreurs, Blake A.; Dunne, Jeffrey A.

2016-05-01

This paper introduces the game of reconnaissance blind multi-chess (RBMC) as a paradigm and test bed for understanding and experimenting with autonomous decision making under uncertainty and in particular managing a network of heterogeneous Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) sensors to maintain situational awareness informing tactical and strategic decision making. The intent is for RBMC to serve as a common reference or challenge problem in fusion and resource management of heterogeneous sensor ensembles across diverse mission areas. We have defined a basic rule set and a framework for creating more complex versions, developed a web-based software realization to serve as an experimentation platform, and developed some initial machine intelligence approaches to playing it.

Cross-scale phenological data integration to benefit resource management and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Andrew D.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Climate change is presenting new challenges for natural resource managers charged with maintaining sustainable ecosystems and landscapes. Phenology, a branch of science dealing with seasonal natural phenomena (bird migration or plant flowering in response to weather changes, for example), bridges the gap between the biosphere and the climate system. Phenological processes operate across scales that span orders of magnitude—from leaf to globe and from days to seasons—making phenology ideally suited to multiscale, multiplatform data integration and delivery of information at spatial and temporal scales suitable to inform resource management decisions.A workshop report: Workshop held June 2016 to investigate opportunities and challenges facing multi-scale, multi-platform integration of phenological data to support natural resource management decision-making.

Justification and radiology: some ethical considerations.

PubMed

Sia, Santiago

2009-07-01

This paper, which seeks to address the issue of justification in radiology, intends firstly to comment on the current discussion of the ethical foundation of radiological practice that focuses on the move from utilitarianism to the rights-centred criterion. Secondly, and this constitutes the bulk of the paper, it aims to offer a philosophical perspective, which is hoped will lead to a consideration of certain specific areas in ethical decision-making in the attempts here to deal with the main issue of justification in radiology.

Improving accountability in vaccine decision-making.

PubMed

Timmis, James Kenneth; Black, Steven; Rappuoli, Rino

2017-11-01

Healthcare decisions, in particular those affecting entire populations, should be evidence-based and taken by decision-makers sharing broad alignment with affected stakeholders. However, criteria, priorities and procedures for decision-making are sometimes non-transparent, frequently vary considerably across equivalent decision-bodies, do not always consider the broader benefits of new health-measures, and therefore do not necessarily adequately represent the relevant stakeholder-spectrum. Areas covered: To address these issues in the context of the evaluation of new vaccines, we have proposed a first baseline set of core evaluation criteria, primarily selected by members of the vaccine research community, and suggested their implementation in vaccine evaluation procedures. In this communication, we review the consequences and utility of stakeholder-centered core considerations to increase transparency in and accountability of decision-making procedures, in general, and of the benefits gained by their inclusion in Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis tools, exemplified by SMART Vaccines, specifically. Expert commentary: To increase effectiveness and comparability of health decision outcomes, decision procedures should be properly standardized across equivalent (national) decision bodies. To this end, including stakeholder-centered criteria in decision procedures would significantly increase their transparency and accountability, support international capacity building to improve health, and reduce societal costs and inequity resulting from suboptimal health decision-making.

Alisse : Advanced life support system evaluator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunet, Jean; Gerbi, Olivier; André, Philippe; Davin, Elisabeth; Avezuela Rodriguez, Raul; Carbonero, Fernando; Soumalainen, Emilia; Lasseur, Christophe

Long duration missions, such as the establishment of permanent bases on the lunar surface or the travel to Mars, require such an amount of life support consumables (e.g. food, water and oxygen) that direct supply or re-supply from Earth is not an option anymore. Regenerative Life Support Systems are therefore necessary to sustain long-term manned space mission to increase recycling rates and so reduce the launched mass. The architecture of an Environmental Controlled Life Support System widely depends on the mission scenario. Even for a given mission scenario, different architectures could be envisaged which need to be evaluated and compared with appropriate tools. As these evaluation and comparison, based on the single criterion of Equivalent System Mass, was not considered com-prehensive enough, ESA is developing a multi-criteria evaluation tool: ALISSE (Advanced Life Support System Evaluator). The main objective of ALISSE, and of the work presented here, is the definition and implemen-tation of a metrics system, addressing the complexity of any ECLSS along its Life Cycle phases. A multi-dimensional and multi-criteria (i.e. mass, energy, efficiency, risk to human, reliability, crew time, sustainability, life cycle cost) approach is proposed through the development of a computing support platform. Each criterion being interrelated with the others, a model based system approach is used. ALISSE is expected to provide significant inputs to the ESA Concurrent Design Facility and, as a consequence, to be a highly valuable tool for decision process linked to any manned space mission. Full contact detail for the contact author : Jean Brunet Sherpa Engineering General Manager Phone : 0033(0)608097480 j.brunet@sherpa-eng.com

Dopamine Modulates the Efficiency of Sensory Evidence Accumulation During Perceptual Decision Making.

PubMed

Beste, Christian; Adelhöfer, Nico; Gohil, Krutika; Passow, Susanne; Roessner, Veit; Li, Shu-Chen

2018-04-02

Perceptual decision making is the process through which available sensory information is gathered and processed to guide our choices. However, the neuropsychopharmacological basis of this important cognitive function is largely elusive. Yet, theoretical considerations suggest that the dopaminergic system may play an important role. In a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study design, we examined the effect of methylphenidate in 2 dosages (0.25 mg/kg and 0.5 mg/kg body weight) in separate groups of healthy young adults. We used a moving dots task in which the coherency of the direction of moving dots stimuli was manipulated in 3 levels (5%, 15%, and 35%). Drift diffusion modelling was applied to behavioral data to capture subprocesses of perceptual decision making. The findings show that only the drift rate (v), reflecting the efficiency of sensory evidence accumulation, but not the decision criterion threshold (a) or the duration of nondecisional processes (Ter), is affected by methylphenidate vs placebo administration. Compared with placebo, administering 0.25 mg/kg methylphenidate increased v, but only in the 35% coherence condition. Administering 0.5 mg/kg methylphenidate did not induce modulations. The data suggest that dopamine selectively modulates the efficacy of evidence accumulation during perceptual decision making. This modulation depends on 2 factors: (1) the degree to which the dopaminergic system is modulated using methylphenidate (i.e., methylphenidate dosage) and (2) the signal-to-noise ratio of the visual information. Dopamine affects sensory evidence accumulation only when dopamine concentration is not shifted beyond an optimal level and the incoming information is less noisy.

Localized prostate cancer treatment decision-making information online: improving its effectiveness and dissemination for nonprofit and government-supported organizations.

PubMed

Silk, Kami J; Perrault, Evan K; Nazione, Samantha; Pace, Kristin; Hager, Polly; Springer, Steven

2013-12-01

The current study reports findings from evaluation research conducted to identify how online prostate cancer treatment decision-making information can be both improved and more effectively disseminated to those who need it most. A multi-method, multi-target approach was used and guided by McGuire's Communication Matrix Model. Focus groups (n = 31) with prostate cancer patients and their family members, and in-depth interviews with physicians (n = 8), helped inform a web survey (n = 89). Results indicated that physicians remain a key information source for medical advice and the Internet is a primary channel used to help make informed prostate cancer treatment decisions. Participants reported a need for more accessible information related to treatment options and treatment side effects. Additionally, physicians indicated that the best way for agencies to reach them with new information to deliver to patients is by contacting them directly and meeting with them one-on-one. Advice for organizations to improve their current prostate cancer web offerings and further ways to improve information dissemination are discussed.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Improvement and Extension of Shape Evaluation Criteria in Multi-Scale Image Segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, M.; Honda, Y.; Kondo, A.

2016-06-01

From the last decade, the multi-scale image segmentation is getting a particular interest and practically being used for object-based image analysis. In this study, we have addressed the issues on multi-scale image segmentation, especially, in improving the performances for validity of merging and variety of derived region's shape. Firstly, we have introduced constraints on the application of spectral criterion which could suppress excessive merging between dissimilar regions. Secondly, we have extended the evaluation for smoothness criterion by modifying the definition on the extent of the object, which was brought for controlling the shape's diversity. Thirdly, we have developed new shape criterion called aspect ratio. This criterion helps to improve the reproducibility on the shape of object to be matched to the actual objectives of interest. This criterion provides constraint on the aspect ratio in the bounding box of object by keeping properties controlled with conventional shape criteria. These improvements and extensions lead to more accurate, flexible, and diverse segmentation results according to the shape characteristics of the target of interest. Furthermore, we also investigated a technique for quantitative and automatic parameterization in multi-scale image segmentation. This approach is achieved by comparing segmentation result with training area specified in advance by considering the maximization of the average area in derived objects or satisfying the evaluation index called F-measure. Thus, it has been possible to automate the parameterization that suited the objectives especially in the view point of shape's reproducibility.

Hierarchical distance-based fuzzy approach to evaluate urban water supply systems in a semi-arid region.

PubMed

Yekta, Tahereh Sadeghi; Khazaei, Mohammad; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Mahvi, Amir Hossein; Nasseri, Simin; Yari, Ahmad Reza

2015-01-01

Hierarchical distance-based fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making was served as a tool to evaluate the drinking water supply systems of Qom, a semi-arid city located in central part of Iran. A list of aspects consisting of 6 criteria and 35 sub-criteria were evaluated based on a linguistic term set by five decision-makers. Four water supply alternatives including "Public desalinated distribution system", "PET Bottled Drinking Water", "Private desalinated water suppliers" and "Household desalinated water units" were assessed based on criteria and sub-criteria. Data were aggregated and normalized to apply Performance Ratings of Alternatives. Also, the Performance Ratings of Alternatives were aggregated again to achieve the Aggregate Performance Ratings. The weighted distances from ideal solution and anti-ideal solution were calculated after secondary normalization. The proximity of each alternative to the ideal solution was determined as the final step. The alternatives were ranked based on the magnitude of ideal solutions. Results showed that "Public desalinated distribution system" was the most appropriate alternative to supply the drinking needs of Qom population. Also, "PET Bottled Drinking Water" was the second acceptable option. A novel classification of alternatives to satisfy the drinking water requirements was proposed which is applicable for the other cities located in semi-arid regions of Iran. The health issues were considered as independent criterion, distinct from the environmental issues. The constraints of high-tech alternatives were also considered regarding to the level of dependency on overseas.

Geospatial strategy for sustainable management of municipal solid waste for growing urban environment.

PubMed

Pandey, Prem Chandra; Sharma, Laxmi Kant; Nathawat, Mahendra Singh

2012-04-01

This paper presents the implementation of a Geospatial approach for improving the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal suitability site assessment in growing urban environment. The increasing trend of population growth and the absolute amounts of waste disposed of worldwide have increased substantially reflecting changes in consumption patterns, consequently worldwide. MSW is now a bigger problem than ever. Despite an increase in alternative techniques for disposing of waste, land-filling remains the primary means. In this context, the pressures and requirements placed on decision makers dealing with land-filling by government and society have increased, as they now have to make decisions taking into considerations environmental safety and economic practicality. The waste disposed by the municipal corporation in the Bhagalpur City (India) is thought to be different from the landfill waste where clearly scientific criterion for locating suitable disposal sites does not seem to exist. The location of disposal sites of Bhagalpur City represents the unconsciousness about the environmental and public health hazards arising from disposing of waste in improper location. Concerning about urban environment and health aspects of people, a good method of waste management and appropriate technologies needed for urban area of Bhagalpur city to improve this trend using Multi Criteria Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing for selection of suitable disposal sites. The purpose of GIS was to perform process to part restricted to highly suitable land followed by using chosen criteria. GIS modeling with overlay operation has been used to find the suitability site for MSW.

D-Side: A Facility and Workforce Planning Group Multi-criteria Decision Support System for Johnson Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

2005-01-01

"To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, and to inspire the next generation of explorers" is NASA's mission. The Systems Management Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is searching for methods to effectively manage the Center's resources to meet NASA's mission. D-Side is a group multi-criteria decision support system (GMDSS) developed to support facility decisions at JSC. D-Side uses a series of sequential and structured processes to plot facilities in a three-dimensional (3-D) graph on the basis of each facility alignment with NASA's mission and goals, the extent to which other facilities are dependent on the facility, and the dollar value of capital investments that have been postponed at the facility relative to the facility replacement value. A similarity factor rank orders facilities based on their Euclidean distance from Ideal and Nadir points. These similarity factors are then used to allocate capital improvement resources across facilities. We also present a parallel model that can be used to support decisions concerning allocation of human resources investments across workforce units. Finally, we present results from a pilot study where 12 experienced facility managers from NASA used D-Side and the organization's current approach to rank order and allocate funds for capital improvement across 20 facilities. Users evaluated D-Side favorably in terms of ease of use, the quality of the decision-making process, decision quality, and overall value-added. Their evaluations of D-Side were significantly more favorable than their evaluations of the current approach. Keywords: NASA, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Decision Support System, AHP, Euclidean Distance, 3-D Modeling, Facility Planning, Workforce Planning.

A clinical decision-making mechanism for context-aware and patient-specific remote monitoring systems using the correlations of multiple vital signs.

PubMed

Forkan, Abdur Rahim Mohammad; Khalil, Ibrahim

2017-02-01

In home-based context-aware monitoring patient's real-time data of multiple vital signs (e.g. heart rate, blood pressure) are continuously generated from wearable sensors. The changes in such vital parameters are highly correlated. They are also patient-centric and can be either recurrent or can fluctuate. The objective of this study is to develop an intelligent method for personalized monitoring and clinical decision support through early estimation of patient-specific vital sign values, and prediction of anomalies using the interrelation among multiple vital signs. In this paper, multi-label classification algorithms are applied in classifier design to forecast these values and related abnormalities. We proposed a completely new approach of patient-specific vital sign prediction system using their correlations. The developed technique can guide healthcare professionals to make accurate clinical decisions. Moreover, our model can support many patients with various clinical conditions concurrently by utilizing the power of cloud computing technology. The developed method also reduces the rate of false predictions in remote monitoring centres. In the experimental settings, the statistical features and correlations of six vital signs are formulated as multi-label classification problem. Eight multi-label classification algorithms along with three fundamental machine learning algorithms are used and tested on a public dataset of 85 patients. Different multi-label classification evaluation measures such as Hamming score, F1-micro average, and accuracy are used for interpreting the prediction performance of patient-specific situation classifications. We achieved 90-95% Hamming score values across 24 classifier combinations for 85 different patients used in our experiment. The results are compared with single-label classifiers and without considering the correlations among the vitals. The comparisons show that multi-label method is the best technique for this problem domain. The evaluation results reveal that multi-label classification techniques using the correlations among multiple vitals are effective ways for early estimation of future values of those vitals. In context-aware remote monitoring this process can greatly help the doctors in quick diagnostic decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ecologically based model of alcohol-consumption decision making: evidence for the discriminative and predictive role of contextual reward and punishment information.

PubMed

Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R

2009-05-01

Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory.

Multi-criteria decision making approaches for quality control of genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Malovini, Alberto; Rognoni, Carla; Puca, Annibale; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2009-03-01

Experimental errors in the genotyping phases of a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) can lead to false positive findings and to spurious associations. An appropriate quality control phase could minimize the effects of this kind of errors. Several filtering criteria can be used to perform quality control. Currently, no formal methods have been proposed for taking into account at the same time these criteria and the experimenter's preferences. In this paper we propose two strategies for setting appropriate genotyping rate thresholds for GWAS quality control. These two approaches are based on the Multi-Criteria Decision Making theory. We have applied our method on a real dataset composed by 734 individuals affected by Arterial Hypertension (AH) and 486 nonagenarians without history of AH. The proposed strategies appear to deal with GWAS quality control in a sound way, as they lead to rationalize and make explicit the experimenter's choices thus providing more reproducible results.

Examining Challenges Related to the Production of Actionable Climate Knowledge for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Focus on Climate Knowledge System Producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.

2017-12-01

Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally, enabling the production of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making requires multi-level effort beyond the individual level.

Development of a Decision Support System for Monitoring, Reporting, Forecasting Ecological Conditions of the Appalachian Trail

Treesearch

Y. Wang; R. Nemani; F. Dieffenbach; K. Stolte; G. Holcomb

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a collaborative multi-agency effort to develop an Appalachian Trail (A.T.) MEGA-Transect Decision Support System (DSS) for monitoring, reporting and forecasting ecological conditions of the A.T. and the surrounding lands. The project is to improve decision-making on management of the A.T. by providing a coherent framework for data integration,...

An Integrated DEMATEL-VIKOR Method-Based Approach for Cotton Fibre Selection and Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Chatterjee, Prasenjit; Prasad, Kanika

2018-01-01

Selection of the most appropriate cotton fibre type for yarn manufacturing is often treated as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem as the optimal selection decision needs to be taken in presence of several conflicting fibre properties. In this paper, two popular MCDM methods in the form of decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) are integrated to aid the cotton fibre selection decision. DEMATEL method addresses the interrelationships between various physical properties of cotton fibres while segregating them into cause and effect groups, whereas, VIKOR method helps in ranking all the considered 17 cotton fibres from the best to the worst. The derived ranking of cotton fibre alternatives closely matches with that obtained by the past researchers. This model can assist the spinning industry personnel in the blending process while making accurate fibre selection decision when cotton fibre properties are numerous and interrelated.

Do we need a threshold conception of competence?

PubMed

den Hartogh, Govert

2016-03-01

On the standard view we assess a person's competence by considering her relevant abilities without reference to the actual decision she is about to make. If she is deemed to satisfy certain threshold conditions of competence, it is still an open question whether her decision could ever be overruled on account of its harmful consequences for her ('hard paternalism'). In practice, however, one normally uses a variable, risk dependent conception of competence, which really means that in considering whether or not to respect a person's decision-making authority we weigh her decision on several relevant dimensions at the same time: its harmful consequences, its importance in terms of the person's own relevant values, the infringement of her autonomy involved in overruling it, and her decision-making abilities. I argue that we should openly recognize the multi-dimensional nature of this judgment. This implies rejecting both the threshold conception of competence and the categorical distinction between hard and soft paternalism.

An Integrated DEMATEL-VIKOR Method-Based Approach for Cotton Fibre Selection and Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Chatterjee, Prasenjit; Prasad, Kanika

2018-06-01

Selection of the most appropriate cotton fibre type for yarn manufacturing is often treated as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem as the optimal selection decision needs to be taken in presence of several conflicting fibre properties. In this paper, two popular MCDM methods in the form of decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) are integrated to aid the cotton fibre selection decision. DEMATEL method addresses the interrelationships between various physical properties of cotton fibres while segregating them into cause and effect groups, whereas, VIKOR method helps in ranking all the considered 17 cotton fibres from the best to the worst. The derived ranking of cotton fibre alternatives closely matches with that obtained by the past researchers. This model can assist the spinning industry personnel in the blending process while making accurate fibre selection decision when cotton fibre properties are numerous and interrelated.

Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

PubMed

Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

2013-01-01

Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

Multi-level multi-criteria analysis of alternative fuels for waste collection vehicles in the United States.

PubMed

Maimoun, Mousa; Madani, Kaveh; Reinhart, Debra

2016-04-15

Historically, the U.S. waste collection fleet was dominated by diesel-fueled waste collection vehicles (WCVs); the growing need for sustainable waste collection has urged decision makers to incorporate economically efficient alternative fuels, while mitigating environmental impacts. The pros and cons of alternative fuels complicate the decisions making process, calling for a comprehensive study that assesses the multiple factors involved. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods allow decision makers to select the best alternatives with respect to selection criteria. In this study, two MCDA methods, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), were used to rank fuel alternatives for the U.S. waste collection industry with respect to a multi-level environmental and financial decision matrix. The environmental criteria consisted of life-cycle emissions, tail-pipe emissions, water footprint (WFP), and power density, while the financial criteria comprised of vehicle cost, fuel price, fuel price stability, and fueling station availability. The overall analysis showed that conventional diesel is still the best option, followed by hydraulic-hybrid WCVs, landfill gas (LFG) sourced natural gas, fossil natural gas, and biodiesel. The elimination of the WFP and power density criteria from the environmental criteria ranked biodiesel 100 (BD100) as an environmentally better alternative compared to other fossil fuels (diesel and natural gas). This result showed that considering the WFP and power density as environmental criteria can make a difference in the decision process. The elimination of the fueling station and fuel price stability criteria from the decision matrix ranked fossil natural gas second after LFG-sourced natural gas. This scenario was found to represent the status quo of the waste collection industry. A sensitivity analysis for the status quo scenario showed the overall ranking of diesel and fossil natural gas to be more sensitive to changing fuel prices as compared to other alternatives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Decision Making with Spikes: From ISI Distributions to Behaviour via Information Gain.

PubMed

Caballero, Javier A; Lepora, Nathan F; Gurney, Kevin N

2015-01-01

Computational theories of decision making in the brain usually assume that sensory 'evidence' is accumulated supporting a number of hypotheses, and that the first accumulator to reach threshold triggers a decision in favour of its associated hypothesis. However, the evidence is often assumed to occur as a continuous process whose origins are somewhat abstract, with no direct link to the neural signals - action potentials or 'spikes' - that must ultimately form the substrate for decision making in the brain. Here we introduce a new variant of the well-known multi-hypothesis sequential probability ratio test (MSPRT) for decision making whose evidence observations consist of the basic unit of neural signalling - the inter-spike interval (ISI) - and which is based on a new form of the likelihood function. We dub this mechanism s-MSPRT and show its precise form for a range of realistic ISI distributions with positive support. In this way we show that, at the level of spikes, the refractory period may actually facilitate shorter decision times, and that the mechanism is robust against poor choice of the hypothesized data distribution. We show that s-MSPRT performance is related to the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) or information gain between ISI distributions, through which we are able to link neural signalling to psychophysical observation at the behavioural level. Thus, we find the mean information needed for a decision is constant, thereby offering an account of Hick's law (relating decision time to the number of choices). Further, the mean decision time of s-MSPRT shows a power law dependence on the KLD offering an account of Piéron's law (relating reaction time to stimulus intensity). These results show the foundations for a research programme in which spike train analysis can be made the basis for predictions about behavior in multi-alternative choice tasks.

Probabilistic Decision Making with Spikes: From ISI Distributions to Behaviour via Information Gain

PubMed Central

Caballero, Javier A.; Lepora, Nathan F.; Gurney, Kevin N.

2015-01-01

Computational theories of decision making in the brain usually assume that sensory 'evidence' is accumulated supporting a number of hypotheses, and that the first accumulator to reach threshold triggers a decision in favour of its associated hypothesis. However, the evidence is often assumed to occur as a continuous process whose origins are somewhat abstract, with no direct link to the neural signals - action potentials or 'spikes' - that must ultimately form the substrate for decision making in the brain. Here we introduce a new variant of the well-known multi-hypothesis sequential probability ratio test (MSPRT) for decision making whose evidence observations consist of the basic unit of neural signalling - the inter-spike interval (ISI) - and which is based on a new form of the likelihood function. We dub this mechanism s-MSPRT and show its precise form for a range of realistic ISI distributions with positive support. In this way we show that, at the level of spikes, the refractory period may actually facilitate shorter decision times, and that the mechanism is robust against poor choice of the hypothesized data distribution. We show that s-MSPRT performance is related to the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) or information gain between ISI distributions, through which we are able to link neural signalling to psychophysical observation at the behavioural level. Thus, we find the mean information needed for a decision is constant, thereby offering an account of Hick's law (relating decision time to the number of choices). Further, the mean decision time of s-MSPRT shows a power law dependence on the KLD offering an account of Piéron's law (relating reaction time to stimulus intensity). These results show the foundations for a research programme in which spike train analysis can be made the basis for predictions about behavior in multi-alternative choice tasks. PMID:25923907

Physician as partner or salesman? Shared decision-making in real-time encounters.

PubMed

Karnieli-Miller, Orit; Eisikovits, Zvi

2009-07-01

The results of recent research have led to the increased advocacy of shared decision-making regarding medical treatment. Nonetheless, only a limited number of studies have focused on the process of decision-making in real-time encounters. The present paper aims to document and analyze this process. Specifically, we assess whether these decisions are the result of partnership or of persuasive tactics based on power and hierarchical relationships. We will describe and analyze different strategies used by pediatric gastroenterologists in breaking bad news encounters, as well as their consequences. The analysis is based on a multi-method, multi-participant phenomenological study on breaking bad news to adolescents and their families regarding a chronic illness. It included 17 units of analysis (actual encounters and 52 interviews with physicians, parents and adolescents). Data were collected from three hospitals in Northern Israel using observations and audiotapes of diagnosis disclosure encounters and audio-taped interviews with all participants. The analysis identified eight different presentation tactics used in actual encounters during which physicians made various use of language, syntax and different sources of power to persuade patients to agree with their preferred treatment choice. The tactics included various ways of presenting the illness, treatment and side effects; providing examples from other success or failure stories; sharing the decision only concerning technicalities; and using plurals and authority. The findings suggest that shared decision-making may be advocated as a philosophical tenet or a value, but it is not necessarily implemented in actual communication with patients. Rather, treatment decisions tend to be unilaterally made, and a variety of persuasive approaches are used to ensure agreement with the physician's recommendation. The discussion is focused on the complexity of sharing a decision, especially in the initial bad news encounter; and the potentially harmful implications on building a trusting relationship between the physician and the family when a decision is not shared.

A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavrotas, George, E-mail: mavrotas@chemeng.ntua.gr; Skoulaxinou, Sotiria; Gakis, Nikos

2013-09-15

Highlights: • The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. • The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. • The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). • The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty yearsmore » they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the application of the model in a Greek region.« less

The Multi-College Concept; Organization and Administration of the Community College in the State of Washington.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Boyd

This study, by Eastern Washington State College, is an attempt to describe the "ideal" organizational structure of a community college in either a single- or multi-college district. It includes organizational charts, position descriptions, and decision-making responsibilities. State and federal law, existing collegiate and corporate…

Using histograms to introduce randomization in the generation of ensembles of decision trees

DOEpatents

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick; Littau, David

2005-02-22

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to create a histogram, a module to evaluate a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, a module to select a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method includes the steps of reading the data; creating a histogram; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, selecting a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Acceptance of shared decision making with reference to an electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) and its association to decision making in patients: an evaluation study.

PubMed

Hirsch, Oliver; Keller, Heidemarie; Krones, Tanja; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

2011-07-07

Decision aids based on the philosophy of shared decision making are designed to help patients make informed choices among diagnostic or treatment options by delivering evidence-based information on options and outcomes. A patient decision aid can be regarded as a complex intervention because it consists of several presumably relevant components. Decision aids have rarely been field tested to assess patients' and physicians' attitudes towards them. It is also unclear what effect decision aids have on the adherence to chosen options. The electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) to be used within the clinical encounter has a modular structure and contains evidence-based decision aids for the following topics: cardiovascular prevention, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, oral antidiabetics, conventional and intensified insulin therapy, and unipolar depression. We conducted an evaluation study in which 29 primary care physicians included 192 patients. After the consultation, patients filled in questionnaires and were interviewed via telephone two months later. We used generalised estimation equations to measure associations within patient variables and traditional crosstab analyses. Patients were highly satisfied with arriba-lib and the process of shared decision making. Two-thirds of patients reached in the telephone interview wanted to be counselled again with arriba-lib. There was a high congruence between preferred and perceived decision making. Of those patients reached in the telephone interview, 80.7% said that they implemented the decision, independent of gender and education. Elderly patients were more likely to say that they implemented the decision. Shared decision making with our multi-modular electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) was accepted by a high number of patients. It has positive associations to general aspects of decision making in patients. It can be used for patient groups with a wide range of individual characteristics.

Multi-model Effort Highlights Progress, Future Needs in Renewable Energy

Science.gov Websites

January 9, 2018 Models of the U.S. electricity sector are relied upon by sector stakeholders and decision of VRE technologies. The report also documents differences in modeling methodologies and shows how long-term planning and decision-making, both for the respective agencies and for other electricity

Using Personality Data to Make Decisions about Global Managers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramesh, Anuradha; Hazucha, Joy F.; Bank, Jurgen

2008-01-01

A major challenge that decisions makers face in multi-national organizations is how to compare managers from different parts of the globe. This challenge is both psychometric and practical. We draw on the cross-cultural psychology literature to propose a three-step framework to compare personality data from different countries. The first step…

Systems Analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruen, M.

2008-05-01

In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

Assessment of health-care waste disposal methods using a VIKOR-based fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method.

PubMed

Liu, Hu-Chen; Wu, Jing; Li, Ping

2013-12-01

Nowadays selection of the appropriate treatment method in health-care waste (HCW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities especially in developing countries. Assessment of HCW disposal alternatives can be regarded as a complicated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem which requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. The objective of this paper is to present a new MCDM technique based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method for evaluating HCW disposal methods. Linguistic variables are used by decision makers to assess the ratings and weights for the established criteria. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group assessment. The computational procedure of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in Shanghai, one of the largest cities of China. The HCW treatment alternatives considered in this study include "incineration", "steam sterilization", "microwave" and "landfill". The results obtained using the proposed approach are analyzed in a comparative way. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrating multi-criteria techniques with geographical information systems in waste facility location to enhance public participation.

PubMed

Higgs, Gary

2006-04-01

Despite recent U.K. Government commitments' to encourage public participation in environmental decision making, those exercises conducted to date have been largely confined to 'traditional' modes of participation such as the dissemination of information and in encouraging feedback on proposals through, for example, questionnaires or surveys. It is the premise of this paper that participative approaches that use IT-based methods, based on combined geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria evaluation techniques that could involve the public in the decision-making process, have the potential to build consensus and reduce disputes and conflicts such as those arising from the siting of different types of waste facilities. The potential of these techniques are documented through a review of the existing literature in order to highlight the opportunities and challenges facing decision makers in increasing the involvement of the public at different stages of the waste facility management process. It is concluded that there are important lessons to be learned by researchers, consultants, managers and decision makers if barriers hindering the wider use of such techniques are to be overcome.

Amplifying Each Patient's Voice: A Systematic Review of Multi-criteria Decision Analyses Involving Patients.

PubMed

Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Hamed, Alaa; Zaiser, Erica

2017-04-01

Qualitative methods tend to be used to incorporate patient preferences into healthcare decision making. However, for patient preferences to be given adequate consideration by decision makers they need to be quantified. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is one way to quantify and capture the patient voice. The objective of this review was to report on existing MCDAs involving patients to support the future use of MCDA to capture the patient voice. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched in June 2014 for English-language papers with no date restriction. The following search terms were used: 'multi-criteria decision*', 'multiple criteria decision*', 'MCDA', 'benefit risk assessment*', 'risk benefit assessment*', 'multicriteri* decision*', 'MCDM', 'multi-criteri* decision*'. Abstracts were included if they reported the application of MCDA to assess healthcare interventions where patients were the source of weights. Abstracts were excluded if they did not apply MCDA, such as discussions of how MCDA could be used; or did not evaluate healthcare interventions, such as MCDAs to assess the level of health need in a locality. Data were extracted on weighting method, variation in patient and expert preferences, and discussion on different weighting techniques. The review identified ten English-language studies that reported an MCDA to assess healthcare interventions and involved patients as a source of weights. These studies reported 12 applications of MCDA. Different methods of preference elicitation were employed: direct weighting in workshops; discrete choice experiment surveys; and the analytical hierarchy process using both workshops and surveys. There was significant heterogeneity in patient responses and differences between patients, who put greater weight on disease characteristics and treatment convenience, and experts, who put more weight on efficacy. The studies highlighted cognitive challenges associated with some weighting methods, though patients' views on their ability to undertake weighting tasks was positive. This review identified several recent examples of MCDA used to elicit patient preferences, which support the feasibility of using MCDA to capture the patient voice. Challenges identified included, how best to reflect the heterogeneity of patient preferences in decision making and how to manage the cognitive burden associated with some MCDA tasks.

An Integrated Approach of Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Based AHP and Fuzzy COPRAS for Machine Tool Evaluation.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; Aoyama, Hideki; Case, Keith

2015-01-01

Globalization of business and competitiveness in manufacturing has forced companies to improve their manufacturing facilities to respond to market requirements. Machine tool evaluation involves an essential decision using imprecise and vague information, and plays a major role to improve the productivity and flexibility in manufacturing. The aim of this study is to present an integrated approach for decision-making in machine tool selection. This paper is focused on the integration of a consistent fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a fuzzy COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) for multi-attribute decision-making in selecting the most suitable machine tool. In this method, the fuzzy linguistic reference relation is integrated into AHP to handle the imprecise and vague information, and to simplify the data collection for the pair-wise comparison matrix of the AHP which determines the weights of attributes. The output of the fuzzy AHP is imported into the fuzzy COPRAS method for ranking alternatives through the closeness coefficient. Presentation of the proposed model application is provided by a numerical example based on the collection of data by questionnaire and from the literature. The results highlight the integration of the improved fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy COPRAS as a precise tool and provide effective multi-attribute decision-making for evaluating the machine tool in the uncertain environment.

Development of an evidence-based decision pathway for vestibular schwannoma treatment options.

PubMed

Linkov, Faina; Valappil, Benita; McAfee, Jacob; Goughnour, Sharon L; Hildrew, Douglas M; McCall, Andrew A; Linkov, Igor; Hirsch, Barry; Snyderman, Carl

To integrate multiple sources of clinical information with patient feedback to build evidence-based decision support model to facilitate treatment selection for patients suffering from vestibular schwannomas (VS). This was a mixed methods study utilizing focus group and survey methodology to solicit feedback on factors important for making treatment decisions among patients. Two 90-minute focus groups were conducted by an experienced facilitator. Previously diagnosed VS patients were recruited by clinical investigators at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC). Classical content analysis was used for focus group data analysis. Providers were recruited from practices within the UPMC system and were surveyed using Delphi methods. This information can provide a basis for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to develop a treatment decision support system for patients with VS. Eight themes were derived from these data (focus group + surveys): doctor/health care system, side effects, effectiveness of treatment, anxiety, mortality, family/other people, quality of life, and post-operative symptoms. These data, as well as feedback from physicians were utilized in building a multi-criteria decision model. The study illustrated steps involved in the development of a decision support model that integrates evidence-based data and patient values to select treatment alternatives. Studies focusing on the actual development of the decision support technology for this group of patients are needed, as decisions are highly multifactorial. Such tools have the potential to improve decision making for complex medical problems with alternate treatment pathways. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Allocation decisions of health insurance rehabilitation managers--An explorative case study concerning stroke rehabilitation].

PubMed

Hasenbein, U; Wallesch, C-W

2003-12-01

We investigated processes of and subjective reasons for resource allocation in three out of four rehabilitation specialists of a regional office of a major health insurance. Decisions of health insurance personnel include approval of and duration of rehabilitation treatment and choice of clinical provider. Insurance specialists are mainly involved in documentation and coordination, whereas decisions mainly follow expert recommendations, mainly of the medical service. Allocation is based primarily on somatic impairment and disability, psychosocial function, motivation and rehabilitation potential are regarded as secondary. Goals and expected results of rehabilitation are neither individually defined nor their achievement evaluated. Decision processes are dominated by routines and agreements. Only exceptionally, defined rules and procedures are applied. Active case management is hampered by a highly specialized internal structure of the investigated insurance fund. The optimal fulfillment of individual requirements for a limited-time rehabilitation treatment is the central criterion for decision making. However, the specialists lack detailed information concerning appropriateness, quality and efficacy of rehabilitation providers, especially when taking patient-related variables into account. Instead, they trust that only high-quality institutions are contracted. Systematic control and feedback of rehabilitation results is not available. The surveyed rehabilitation managers do not include cost aspects in their decision-making. They would regard this as alien to a member- and patient-oriented policy. Improvement potentials with respect to rehabilitation case management are being reviewed.

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion method for planning water resources systems with a trading mechanism.

PubMed

Zeng, X T; Huang, G H; Li, Y P; Zhang, J L; Cai, Y P; Liu, Z P; Liu, L R

2016-12-01

This study developed a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion (FSGZ) method for water resources allocation and water quality management with a trading-mechanism (WAQT) under uncertainties. FSGZ can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, and it can also quantify objective/subjective fuzziness in the decision-making process. Risk-averse attitudes and robustness coefficient are joined to express the relationship between the expected target and outcome under various risk preferences of decision makers and systemic robustness. The developed method is applied to a real-world case of WAQT in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin in northwest China, where an effective mechanism (e.g., market trading) to simultaneously confront severely diminished water availability and degraded water quality is required. Results of water transaction amounts, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes, and system benefits under various scenarios are analyzed, which indicate that a trading-mechanism is a more sustainable method to manage water-environment crisis in the study region. Additionally, consideration of anthropogenic (e.g., a risk-averse attitude) and systemic factors (e.g., the robustness coefficient) can support the generation of a robust plan associated with risk control for WAQT when uncertainty is present. These findings assist local policy and decision makers to gain insights into water-environment capacity planning to balance the basin's social and economic growth with protecting the region's ecosystems.

Project evaluation and selection using fuzzy Delphi method and zero - one goal programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alias, Suriana; Adna, Nofarziah; Arsad, Roslah; Soid, Siti Khuzaimah; Ali, Zaileha Md

2014-12-01

Project evaluation and selection is a factor affecting the impotence of board director in which is trying to maximize all the possible goals. Assessment of the problem occurred in organization plan is the first phase for decision making process. The company needs a group of expert to evaluate the problems. The Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) is a systematic procedure to evoke the group's opinion in order to get the best result to evaluate the project performance. This paper proposes an evaluation and selection of the best alternative project based on combination of FDM and Zero - One Goal Programming (ZOGP) formulation. ZOGP is used to solve the multi-criteria decision making for final decision part by using optimization software LINDO 6.1. An empirical example on an ongoing decision making project in Johor, Malaysia is implemented for case study.

Emerging medical informatics with case-based reasoning for aiding clinical decision in multi-agent system.

PubMed

Shen, Ying; Colloc, Joël; Jacquet-Andrieu, Armelle; Lei, Kai

2015-08-01

This research aims to depict the methodological steps and tools about the combined operation of case-based reasoning (CBR) and multi-agent system (MAS) to expose the ontological application in the field of clinical decision support. The multi-agent architecture works for the consideration of the whole cycle of clinical decision-making adaptable to many medical aspects such as the diagnosis, prognosis, treatment, therapeutic monitoring of gastric cancer. In the multi-agent architecture, the ontological agent type employs the domain knowledge to ease the extraction of similar clinical cases and provide treatment suggestions to patients and physicians. Ontological agent is used for the extension of domain hierarchy and the interpretation of input requests. Case-based reasoning memorizes and restores experience data for solving similar problems, with the help of matching approach and defined interfaces of ontologies. A typical case is developed to illustrate the implementation of the knowledge acquisition and restitution of medical experts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

A Practical, Robust Methodology for Acquiring New Observation Data Using Computationally Expensive Groundwater Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siade, Adam J.; Hall, Joel; Karelse, Robert N.

2017-11-01

Regional groundwater flow models play an important role in decision making regarding water resources; however, the uncertainty embedded in model parameters and model assumptions can significantly hinder the reliability of model predictions. One way to reduce this uncertainty is to collect new observation data from the field. However, determining where and when to obtain such data is not straightforward. There exist a number of data-worth and experimental design strategies developed for this purpose. However, these studies often ignore issues related to real-world groundwater models such as computational expense, existing observation data, high-parameter dimension, etc. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on existing methods and software, to efficiently conduct such analyses for large-scale, complex regional groundwater flow systems for which there is a wealth of available observation data. The method utilizes the well-established d-optimality criterion, and the minimax criterion for robust sampling strategies. The so-called Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to reduce the computational burden associated with uncertainty quantification. And, a heuristic methodology, based on the concept of the greedy algorithm, is proposed for developing robust designs with subsets of the posterior parameter samples. The proposed methodology is tested on a synthetic regional groundwater model, and subsequently applied to an existing, complex, regional groundwater system in the Perth region of Western Australia. The results indicate that robust designs can be obtained efficiently, within reasonable computational resources, for making regional decisions regarding groundwater level sampling.

Utilization of a Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Building Effective Command Centers: Process and Products

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

cognitive task analysis , organizational information dissemination and interaction, systems engineering, collaboration and communications processes, decision-making processes, and data collection and organization. By blending these diverse disciplines command centers can be designed to support decision-making, cognitive analysis, information technology, and the human factors engineering aspects of Command and Control (C2). This model can then be used as a baseline when dealing with work in areas of business processes, workflow engineering, information management,

The Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Method Based on Interval Grey Trapezoid Fuzzy Linguistic Variables.

PubMed

Yin, Kedong; Wang, Pengyu; Li, Xuemei

2017-12-13

With respect to multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems, where attribute values take the form of interval grey trapezoid fuzzy linguistic variables (IGTFLVs) and the weights (including expert and attribute weight) are unknown, improved grey relational MAGDM methods are proposed. First, the concept of IGTFLV, the operational rules, the distance between IGTFLVs, and the projection formula between the two IGTFLV vectors are defined. Second, the expert weights are determined by using the maximum proximity method based on the projection values between the IGTFLV vectors. The attribute weights are determined by the maximum deviation method and the priorities of alternatives are determined by improved grey relational analysis. Finally, an example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method and the flexibility of IGTFLV.

WeightLifter: Visual Weight Space Exploration for Multi-Criteria Decision Making.

PubMed

Pajer, Stephan; Streit, Marc; Torsney-Weir, Thomas; Spechtenhauser, Florian; Muller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald

2017-01-01

A common strategy in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is to rank alternative solutions by weighted summary scores. Weights, however, are often abstract to the decision maker and can only be set by vague intuition. While previous work supports a point-wise exploration of weight spaces, we argue that MCDM can benefit from a regional and global visual analysis of weight spaces. Our main contribution is WeightLifter, a novel interactive visualization technique for weight-based MCDM that facilitates the exploration of weight spaces with up to ten criteria. Our technique enables users to better understand the sensitivity of a decision to changes of weights, to efficiently localize weight regions where a given solution ranks high, and to filter out solutions which do not rank high enough for any plausible combination of weights. We provide a comprehensive requirement analysis for weight-based MCDM and describe an interactive workflow that meets these requirements. For evaluation, we describe a usage scenario of WeightLifter in automotive engineering and report qualitative feedback from users of a deployed version as well as preliminary feedback from decision makers in multiple domains. This feedback confirms that WeightLifter increases both the efficiency of weight-based MCDM and the awareness of uncertainty in the ultimate decisions.

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.; Chu, Y. Y.; Greenstein, J. S.; Walden, R. S.

1976-01-01

An investigation was made of interaction between a human pilot and automated on-board decision making systems. Research was initiated on the topic of pilot problem solving in automated and semi-automated flight management systems and attempts were made to develop a model of human decision making in a multi-task situation. A study was made of allocation of responsibility between human and computer, and discussed were various pilot performance parameters with varying degrees of automation. Optimal allocation of responsibility between human and computer was considered and some theoretical results found in the literature were presented. The pilot as a problem solver was discussed. Finally the design of displays, controls, procedures, and computer aids for problem solving tasks in automated and semi-automated systems was considered.

Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) User Manual: A ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities (SHC) Research Program is developing methodologies, resources, and tools to assist community members and local decision makers in implementing policy choices that facilitate sustainable approaches in managing their resources affecting the built environment, natural environment, and human health. In order to assist communities and decision makers in implementing sustainable practices, EPA is developing computer-based systems including models, databases, web tools, and web browsers to help communities decide upon approaches that support their desired outcomes. Communities need access to resources that will allow them to achieve their sustainability objectives through intelligent decisions in four key sustainability areas: • Land Use • Buildings and Infrastructure • Transportation • Materials Management (i.e., Municipal Solid Waste [MSW] processing and disposal) The Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) is designed to support sustainable decision-making for communities, local and regional planners, and policy and decision makers. Document is an EPA Technical Report, which is the user manual for the Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) tool. The purpose of the document is to provide basic guidance on use of the tool for users

Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular. PMID:22206355

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-04-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment.

Consumer Education Resource Guide, K-12. A Multi-Disciplinary Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calhoun, Calfrey C.; And Others

The guide suggests methods and resources for planning learning experiences in teaching consumer education to students at the K-12 levels. The major topics and related areas are: (1) financial planning (estimating income, estimating expenses, establishing goals, making decisions, and making the financial plan); (2) buying (importance of planned…

Cloud/web mapping and geoprocessing services - Intelligently linking geoinformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenendaal, Bert; Brovelli, Maria Antonia; Wu, Lixin

2016-04-01

We live in a world that is alive with information and geographies. "Everything happens somewhere" (Tosta, 2001). This reality is being exposed in the digital earth technologies providing a multi-dimensional, multi-temporal and multi-resolution model of the planet, based on the needs of diverse actors: from scientists to decision makers, communities and citizens (Brovelli et al., 2015). We are building up a geospatial information infrastructure updated in real time thanks to mobile, positioning and sensor observations. Users can navigate, not only through space but also through time, to access historical data and future predictions based on social and/or environmental models. But how do we find the information about certain geographic locations or localities when it is scattered in the cloud and across the web of data behind a diversity of databases, web services and hyperlinked pages? We need to be able to link geoinformation together in order to integrate it, make sense of it, and use it appropriately for managing the world and making decisions.

Evidence use in decision-making on introducing innovations: a systematic scoping review with stakeholder feedback.

PubMed

Turner, Simon; D'Lima, Danielle; Hudson, Emma; Morris, Stephen; Sheringham, Jessica; Swart, Nick; Fulop, Naomi J

2017-12-04

A range of evidence informs decision-making on innovation in health care, including formal research findings, local data and professional opinion. However, cultural and organisational factors often prevent the translation of evidence for innovations into practice. In addition to the characteristics of evidence, it is known that processes at the individual level influence its impact on decision-making. Less is known about the ways in which processes at the professional, organisational and local system level shape evidence use and its role in decisions to adopt innovations. A systematic scoping review was used to review the health literature on innovations within acute and primary care and map processes at the professional, organisational and local system levels which influence how evidence informs decision-making on innovation. Stakeholder feedback on the themes identified was collected via focus groups to test and develop the findings. Following database and manual searches, 31 studies reporting primary qualitative data met the inclusion criteria: 24 were of sufficient methodological quality to be included in the thematic analysis. Evidence use in decision-making on innovation is influenced by multi-level processes (professional, organisational, local system) and interactions across these levels. Preferences for evidence vary by professional group and health service setting. Organisations can shape professional behaviour by requiring particular forms of evidence to inform decision-making. Pan-regional organisations shape innovation decision-making at lower levels. Political processes at all levels shape the selection and use of evidence in decision-making. The synthesis of results from primary qualitative studies found that evidence use in decision-making on innovation is influenced by processes at multiple levels. Interactions between different levels shape evidence use in decision-making (e.g. professional groups and organisations can use local systems to validate evidence and legitimise innovations, while local systems can tailor or frame evidence to influence activity at lower levels). Organisational leaders need to consider whether the environment in which decisions are made values diverse evidence and stakeholder perspectives. Further qualitative research on decision-making practices that highlights how and why different types of evidence come to count during decisions, and tracks the political aspects of decisions about innovation, is needed.

Psychological harassment in the nursing workplace: an observational study.

PubMed

Fornés, Joana; Cardoso, Meiremar; Castelló, Joana Maria; Gili, Margalida

2011-06-01

Psychological harassment in the workplace involves disrespectful or humiliating behavior to workers. Nurses make up one of the groups that are most exposed to these behaviors. This descriptive study investigated the most common types of psychological harassment in the nursing workplace and their relationship with sociodemographic variables among 285 nurses in Spain. Findings indicate differences in the prevalence of psychological harassment depending on the criterion that was used. Psychological harassment is positively correlated with a desire to abandon the profession and negatively with participation in decision making. The results suggest combining different measures to evaluate psychological harassment in the workplace and zero-tolerance polices for psychological abuse. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fairness, severe intellectual disability, and the special case of transplantation.

PubMed

Wightman, Aaron; Goldberg, Aviva; Diekema, Douglas

2018-05-21

Children with severe intellectual disability have historically been excluded from solid organ transplantation. The purpose of this article was to review the arguments for excluding this population, including claims of poorer recipient and graft survival, a lower QoL as pediatric recipients become adults, and poorer outcomes for other, more deserving pediatric transplant candidates, and make the case that these arguments are no longer persuasive. We will argue that pediatric transplant centers for reasons of social justice, value of relationships, power differential, and fairness should generally not consider intellectual ability or disability as a criterion when making decisions regarding organ transplant eligibility. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-stage ranking of emergency technology alternatives for water source pollution accidents using a fuzzy group decision making tool.

PubMed

Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; You, Hong

2016-06-05

Due to the increasing number of unexpected water source pollution events, selection of the most appropriate disposal technology for a specific pollution scenario is of crucial importance to the security of urban water supplies. However, the formulation of the optimum option is considerably difficult owing to the substantial uncertainty of such accidents. In this research, a multi-stage technical screening and evaluation tool is proposed to determine the optimal technique scheme, considering the areas of pollutant elimination both in drinking water sources and water treatment plants. In stage 1, a CBR-based group decision tool was developed to screen available technologies for different scenarios. Then, the threat degree caused by the pollution was estimated in stage 2 using a threat evaluation system and was partitioned into four levels. For each threat level, a corresponding set of technique evaluation criteria weights was obtained using Group-G1. To identify the optimization alternatives corresponding to the different threat levels, an extension of TOPSIS, a multi-criteria interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy decision making technique containing the four arrays of criteria weights, to a group decision environment was investigated in stage 3. The effectiveness of the developed tool was elaborated by two actual thallium-contaminated scenarios associated with different threat levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria decision-making on assessment of proposed tidal barrage schemes in terms of environmental impacts.

PubMed

Wu, Yunna; Xu, Chuanbo; Ke, Yiming; Chen, Kaifeng; Xu, Hu

2017-12-15

For tidal range power plants to be sustainable, the environmental impacts caused by the implement of various tidal barrage schemes must be assessed before construction. However, several problems exist in the current researches: firstly, evaluation criteria of the tidal barrage schemes environmental impact assessment (EIA) are not adequate; secondly, uncertainty of criteria information fails to be processed properly; thirdly, correlation among criteria is unreasonably measured. Hence the contributions of this paper are as follows: firstly, an evaluation criteria system is established from three dimensions of hydrodynamic, biological and morphological aspects. Secondly, cloud model is applied to describe the uncertainty of criteria information. Thirdly, Choquet integral with respect to λ-fuzzy measure is introduced to measure the correlation among criteria. On the above bases, a multi-criteria decision-making decision framework for tidal barrage scheme EIA is established to select the optimal scheme. Finally, a case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linguistic hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method based on evidential reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Huan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Zhang, Hong-yu; Chen, Xiao-hong

2016-01-01

Linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets (LHFSs), which can be used to represent decision-makers' qualitative preferences as well as reflect their hesitancy and inconsistency, have attracted a great deal of attention due to their flexibility and efficiency. This paper focuses on a multi-criteria decision-making approach that combines LHFSs with the evidential reasoning (ER) method. After reviewing existing studies of LHFSs, a new order relationship and Hamming distance between LHFSs are introduced and some linguistic scale functions are applied. Then, the ER algorithm is used to aggregate the distributed assessment of each alternative. Subsequently, the set of aggregated alternatives on criteria are further aggregated to get the overall value of each alternative. Furthermore, a nonlinear programming model is developed and genetic algorithms are used to obtain the optimal weights of the criteria. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to show the feasibility and usability of the method, and comparison analysis with the existing method is made.

Some induced intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators applied to multi-attribute group decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhi-xin; Xia, Guo-ping; Chen, Ming-yuan

2011-11-01

In this paper, we define various induced intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators, including induced intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator, induced intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid averaging (I-IFHA) operator, induced interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy OWA operator, and induced interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid averaging (I-IIFHA) operator. We also establish various properties of these operators. And then, an approach based on I-IFHA operator and intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (WA) operator is developed to solve multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems. In such problems, attribute weights and the decision makers' (DMs') weights are real numbers and attribute values provided by the DMs are intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs), and an approach based on I-IIFHA operator and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy WA operator is developed to solve MAGDM problems where the attribute values provided by the DMs are interval-valued IFNs. Furthermore, induced intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid geometric operator and induced interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid geometric operator are proposed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the developed approaches.

A conceptual framework for economic optimization of an animal health surveillance portfolio.

PubMed

Guo, X; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

2016-04-01

Decision making on hazard surveillance in livestock product chains is a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and multi-criteria process that includes a variety of decision alternatives. The multi-hazard aspect means that the allocation of the scarce resource for surveillance should be optimized from the point of view of a surveillance portfolio (SP) rather than a single hazard. In this paper, we present a novel conceptual approach for economic optimization of a SP to address the resource allocation problem for a surveillance organization from a theoretical perspective. This approach uses multi-criteria techniques to evaluate the performances of different settings of a SP, taking cost-benefit aspects of surveillance and stakeholders' preferences into account. The credibility of the approach has also been checked for conceptual validity, data needs and operational validity; the application potentials of the approach are also discussed.

Smoking and the bandit: A preliminary study of smoker and non-smoker differences in exploratory behavior measured with a multi-armed bandit task

PubMed Central

Addicott, Merideth A.; Pearson, John M.; Wilson, Jessica; Platt, Michael L.; McClernon, F. Joseph

2014-01-01

Advantageous decision-making is an adaptive trade-off between exploring alternatives and exploiting the most rewarding option. This trade-off may be related to maladaptive decision-making associated with nicotine dependence; however, explore/exploit behavior has not been previously investigated in the context of addiction. The explore/exploit trade-off is captured by the multi-armed bandit task, in which different arms of a slot machine are chosen to discover the relative payoffs. The goal of this study was to preliminarily investigate whether smokers differ from non-smokers in their degree of exploratory behavior. Smokers (n = 18) and non-smokers (n = 17) completed a six-armed bandit task as well as self-report measures of behavior and personality traits. Smokers were found to exhibit less exploratory behavior (i.e. made fewer switches between slot machine arms) than non-smokers within the first 300 trials of the bandit task. The overall proportion of exploratory choices negatively correlated with self-reported measures of delay aversion and nonplanning impulsivity. These preliminary results suggest that smokers make fewer initial exploratory choices on the bandit task. The bandit task is a promising measure that could provide valuable insights into how nicotine use and dependence is associated with explore/exploit decision-making. PMID:23245198

Don't Discount Societal Value in Cost-Effectiveness Comment on "Priority Setting for Universal Health Coverage: We Need Evidence-Informed Deliberative Processes, Not Just More Evidence on Cost-Effectiveness".

PubMed

Hall, William

2017-01-14

As healthcare resources become increasingly scarce due to growing demand and stagnating budgets, the need for effective priority setting and resource allocation will become ever more critical to providing sustainable care to patients. While societal values should certainly play a part in guiding these processes, the methodology used to capture these values need not necessarily be limited to multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA)-based processes including 'evidence-informed deliberative processes.' However, if decision-makers intend to not only incorporates the values of the public they serve into decisions but have the decisions enacted as well, consideration should be given to more direct involvement of stakeholders. Based on the examples provided by Baltussen et al, MCDA-based processes like 'evidence-informed deliberative processes' could be one way of achieving this laudable goal. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

2011-05-30

Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on Data Clustering and Intelligent Decision Algorithm of Indoor Localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zexi

2018-01-01

Indoor positioning technology enables the human beings to have the ability of positional perception in architectural space, and there is a shortage of single network coverage and the problem of location data redundancy. So this article puts forward the indoor positioning data clustering algorithm and intelligent decision-making research, design the basic ideas of multi-source indoor positioning technology, analyzes the fingerprint localization algorithm based on distance measurement, position and orientation of inertial device integration. By optimizing the clustering processing of massive indoor location data, the data normalization pretreatment, multi-dimensional controllable clustering center and multi-factor clustering are realized, and the redundancy of locating data is reduced. In addition, the path is proposed based on neural network inference and decision, design the sparse data input layer, the dynamic feedback hidden layer and output layer, low dimensional results improve the intelligent navigation path planning.

A sequential sampling account of response bias and speed-accuracy tradeoffs in a conflict detection task.

PubMed

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Humphreys, Michael; Neal, Andrew

2014-03-01

Signal Detection Theory (SDT; Green & Swets, 1966) is a popular tool for understanding decision making. However, it does not account for the time taken to make a decision, nor why response bias might change over time. Sequential sampling models provide a way of accounting for speed-accuracy trade-offs and response bias shifts. In this study, we test the validity of a sequential sampling model of conflict detection in a simulated air traffic control task by assessing whether two of its key parameters respond to experimental manipulations in a theoretically consistent way. Through experimental instructions, we manipulated participants' response bias and the relative speed or accuracy of their responses. The sequential sampling model was able to replicate the trends in the conflict responses as well as response time across all conditions. Consistent with our predictions, manipulating response bias was associated primarily with changes in the model's Criterion parameter, whereas manipulating speed-accuracy instructions was associated with changes in the Threshold parameter. The success of the model in replicating the human data suggests we can use the parameters of the model to gain an insight into the underlying response bias and speed-accuracy preferences common to dynamic decision-making tasks. © 2013 American Psychological Association

Automation of Tooling Backup and Cutter Selection for Engineering Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terekhov, M. V.; Averchenkov, V. I.; Reutov, A. A.; Handozhko, A. V.

2017-01-01

This paper reports the analysis of a tool support procedure for mechanical engineering and basic trends in the automation of this field are revealed. The system of technical-organizational measures directed at the formation, management and development of the tool stock and a high degree of technological readiness of manufacturing are described. The problems of an automated optimum cutter selection are considered. A mathematical support for a choice of cutters with through-away tips is described. A simulator for the description of combined cutters is presented. Basic criteria defining cutter choice are established. The problem of a multi-criterion fuzzy estimation of alternatives at different significance of choice criteria is solved. The criterion significance ranking at the parameter choice of cutter plates and tool supports is carried out. A set of estimations of cutter plate forms and other cutter parameters taking into account a relative significance of criteria is defined. The application of a decisive rule in the choice of an alternative required is described, which consists in the definition of the intersection of sets of alternative estimations.

A framework for treating DSM-5 alternative model for personality disorder features.

PubMed

Hopwood, Christopher J

2018-04-15

Despite its demonstrated empirical superiority over the DSM-5 Section 2 categorical model of personality disorders for organizing the features of personality pathology, limitations remain with regard to the translation of the DSM-5 Section 3 alternative model of personality disorders (AMPD) to clinical practice. The goal of this paper is to outline a general and preliminary framework for approaching treatment from the perspective of the AMPD. Specific techniques are discussed for the assessment and treatment of both Criterion A personality dysfunction and Criterion B maladaptive traits. A concise and step-by-step model is presented for clinical decision making with the AMPD, in the hopes of offering clinicians a framework for treating personality pathology and promoting further research on the clinical utility of the AMPD. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing Multi-Person and Person-Machine Distributed Decision Making Using an Extended Psychological Distancing Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-02-01

human-to- human communication patterns during situation assessment and cooperative problem solving tasks. The research proposed for the second URRP year...Hardware development. In order to create an environment within which to study multi-channeled human-to- human communication , a multi-media observation...that machine-to- human communication can be used to increase cohesion between humans and intelligent machines and to promote human-machine team

Management of complex knowledge in planning for sustainable development: The use of multi-criteria decision aids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kain, Jaan-Henrik; Soederberg, Henriette

2008-01-15

The vision of sustainable development entails new and complex planning situations, confronting local policy makers with changing political conditions, different content in decision making and planning and new working methods. Moreover, the call for sustainable development has been a major driving force towards an increasingly multi-stakeholder planning system. This situation requires competence in working in, and managing, groups of actors, including not only experts and project owners but also other categories of stakeholders. Among other qualities, such competence requires a working strategy aimed at integrating various, and sometimes incommensurable, forms of knowledge to construct a relevant and valid knowledge basemore » prior to decision making. Consequently, there lies great potential in methods that facilitate the evaluation of strategies for infrastructural development across multiple knowledge areas, so-called multi-criteria decision aids (MCDAs). In the present article, observations from six case studies are discussed, where the common denominators are infrastructural planning, multi-stakeholder participation and the use of MCDAs as interactive decision support. Three MCDAs are discussed - NAIADE, SCA and STRAD - with an emphasis on how they function in their procedural context. Accordingly, this is not an analysis of MCDA algorithms, of software programming aspects or of MCDAs as context-independent 'decision machines'-the focus is on MCDAs as actor systems, not as expert systems. The analysis is carried out across four main themes: (a) symmetrical management of different forms of knowledge; (b) management of heterogeneity, pluralism and conflict; (c) functionality and ease of use; and (d) transparency and trust. It shows that STRAD, by far, seems to be the most useful MCDA in interactive settings. NAIADE and SCA are roughly equivalent but have their strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Moreover, it was found that some MCDA issues require further attention, i.e., regarding transparency and understandability; qualitative/quantitative knowledge input; switching between different modes of weighting; software flexibility; as well as graphic and user interfaces.« less

Measurements of Rationality: Individual Differences in Information Processing, the Transitivity of Preferences and Decision Strategies

PubMed Central

Sleboda, Patrycja; Sokolowska, Joanna

2017-01-01

The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI) and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) through checking their relation to the transitivity axiom. The second goal was to test the relation between decision strategies and cognitive style as well as the relation between decision strategies and the transitivity of preferences. The following characteristics of strategies were investigated: requirements for trade-offs, maximization vs. satisficing and option-wise vs. attribute-wise information processing. Respondents were given choices between two multi-attribute options. The options were designed so that the choice indicated which strategy was applied. Both the REI-R and the CRT were found to be good predictors of the transitivity of preferences. Respondents who applied compensatory strategies and the maximization criterion scored highly on the REI-R and in the CRT, whereas those who applied the satisficing rule scored highly on the REI-R but not in the CRT. Attribute-wise information processing was related to low scores in both measurements. Option-wise information processing led to a high transitivity of preferences. PMID:29093695

A spatial decision support system (SDSS) for sustainable tourism planning in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminu, M.; Matori, A. N.; Yusof, K. W.

2014-02-01

The study describes a methodological approach based on an integrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) of Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to determine nature conservation and tourism development priorities among the highland areas. A set of criteria and indicators were defined to evaluate the highlands biodiversity conservation and tourism development. Pair wise comparison technique was used in order to support solution of a decision problem by evaluating possible alternatives from different perspectives. After the weights have been derived from the pairwise comparison technique, the next step was to compute the unweighted supermatrix, weighted supermatrix and the limit matrix. The limit matrix was normalized to obtain the priorities and the results transferred into GIS environment. Elements evaluated and ranked were represented by criterion maps. Map layers reflecting the opinion of different experts involved were summed using the weighted overlay approach of GIS. Subsequently sustainable tourism development scenarios were generated. The generation of scenarios highlighted the critical issues of the decision problem because it allows one to gradually narrow down a problem.

Measurements of Rationality: Individual Differences in Information Processing, the Transitivity of Preferences and Decision Strategies.

PubMed

Sleboda, Patrycja; Sokolowska, Joanna

2017-01-01

The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory ( REI ) and the Cognitive Reflection Test ( CRT ) through checking their relation to the transitivity axiom. The second goal was to test the relation between decision strategies and cognitive style as well as the relation between decision strategies and the transitivity of preferences. The following characteristics of strategies were investigated: requirements for trade-offs, maximization vs. satisficing and option-wise vs. attribute-wise information processing. Respondents were given choices between two multi-attribute options. The options were designed so that the choice indicated which strategy was applied. Both the REI-R and the CRT were found to be good predictors of the transitivity of preferences. Respondents who applied compensatory strategies and the maximization criterion scored highly on the REI-R and in the CRT , whereas those who applied the satisficing rule scored highly on the REI-R but not in the CRT . Attribute-wise information processing was related to low scores in both measurements. Option-wise information processing led to a high transitivity of preferences.

Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research

PubMed Central

Singh, Sonal

2013-01-01

Background: Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  Methods: This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Discussion: Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences. PMID:24555077

Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Maruthur, Nisa M; Joy, Susan; Dolan, James; Segal, Jodi B; Shihab, Hasan M; Singh, Sonal

2013-01-01

Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences.

Context Effects in Multi-Alternative Decision Making: Empirical Data and a Bayesian Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkins, Guy; Brown, Scott D.; Steyvers, Mark; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2012-01-01

For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates--sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and…

75 FR 33534 - Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Final Decision on Proposed Amendments to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-14

... incorporates an equivalent 2.25 percent true milk protein criterion for determining if a product meets the... percent true milk protein criterion for determining if a product meets the compositional standard. The... solids and incorporates an equivalent 2.25 percent true milk protein criterion for determining whether a...

Guardianship and End-of-Life Decision Making

PubMed Central

Cohen, Andrew B.; Wright, Megan S.; Cooney, Leo; Fried, Terri

2015-01-01

As the population ages, more adults will develop impaired decision-making capacity and have no family members or friends available to make medical decisions on their behalf. In such situations, a professional guardian is often appointed by the court. This is an official who has no pre-existing relationship with the impaired individual but is paid to serve as a surrogate decision-maker. When a professional guardian is faced with decisions concerning life-sustaining treatment, substituted judgment may be impossible, and reports have repeatedly suggested that guardians are reluctant to make the decision to limit care. Clinicians are well positioned to assist guardians with these decisions and safeguard the rights of the vulnerable persons they represent. Doing so effectively requires knowledge of the laws governing end-of-life decisions by guardians. Clinicians, however, are often uncertain about whether guardians are empowered to withhold treatment and when their decisions require judicial review. To address this issue, we analyzed state guardianship statutes and reviewed recent legal cases in order to characterize the authority of a guardian over choices about end-of-life treatment. We found that a large majority of state guardianship statutes have no language about end-of-life decisions and identified just five legal cases over the past decade that addressed a guardian’s authority over these decisions, with only one case providing a broad framework applicable to clinical practice. Work to improve end-of-life decision-making by guardians may benefit from a multi-disciplinary effort to develop comprehensive standards that can guide clinicians and guardians when treatment decisions need to be made. PMID:26258634

Characterization of Kentucky dairy producer decision-making behavior.

PubMed

Russell, R A; Bewley, J M

2013-07-01

To address dairy clientele needs, industry professionals need to understand how dairy producers make decisions. A survey was distributed to all licensed Kentucky milk producers (n=1,074) to better understand factors that influence dairy producer decisions. A total of 236 surveys were returned; 7 were omitted because they were incomplete, leaving 229 for subsequent analyses (21% response rate). The survey consisted of questions about dairy operational success criteria, decision evaluation criteria, information sources, and technology adoption. The mean response to each survey question was calculated after assigning the following numeric values to producer response categories: 1 = not important, 3 = important, 5 = very important. The most important source of influence or information in decision making was advice from consultants, nutritionists, and veterinarians (3.70±1.23), followed by consultation with business partners and family members (3.68±1.29), and intuition and gut feeling (3.10±1.45). Producers with large herds (≥200 cows) relied more heavily on information from consultants, nutritionists, and veterinarians and on employee input than did producers with small herds (1 to 49 cows). Producers with small herds did not use effect on employee morale as a criterion to evaluate decisions as much as those with larger herds did. In regard to adoption of automated monitoring technologies, producers indicated that modest adoption rates were a result of (1) not being familiar with technologies that are available (55%), (2) undesirable cost to benefit ratios (42%), and (3) too much information provided without knowing what to do with it (36%). As herd size increased, the percentage of producers selecting poor technical support and training and compatibility issues as reasons for slow adoption of automated technologies increased. This insight into dairy producer decision making should help industry professionals address dairy producer issues and concerns. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selecting the Acceptance Criteria of Medicines in the Reimbursement List of Public Health Insurance of Iran, Using the "Borda" Method: a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Viyanchi, Amir; Rasekh, Hamid Reza; Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; SafiKhani, Hamid Reza

2015-01-01

Decision-making for medicines to be accepted in Iran's public health insurance reimbursement list is a complex process and involves factors, which should be considered in applying a coverage for medicine costs. These processes and factors are not wholly assessed, while assessment of these factors is an essential need for getting a transparent and evidence-based approach toward medicine reimbursement in Iran. This paper aims to show an evidence-based approach toward medicine selection criteria to inform the medical reimbursement decision makers in Iranian health insurance organizations. To explore an adaptable decision-making framework while incorporating a method called "Borda" in medicine reimbursement assessment, we used the help of an expert group including decision makers and clinical researchers who are also policy makers to appraise the five chief criteria that have three sub criteria (Precision, Interpretability, and Cost). Also software "Math-lab"7, "SPSS" 17 and Excel 2007 were used in this study. "Borda" estimates the amount of perceived values from different criteria and creates a range from one to five while providing a comprehensive measurement of a large spectrum of criteria. Participants reported that the framework provided an efficient approach to systematic consideration in a pragmatic format consisting of many parts to guide decision-makings, including criteria and value (a model with the core of Borda) and evidences (medicine reimbursement based on criteria). The most important criterion for medicine acceptance in health insurance companies, in Iran, is the "life-threatening" factor and "evidence quality" is accounted as the fifth important factor. This pilot study showed the usefulness of incorporating Borda in medicine reimbursement decisions to support a transparent and systematic appraisal of health insurance companies' deeds. Further research is needed to advance Borda-based approaches that are effective on health insurance decision making.

Selecting the Acceptance Criteria of Medicines in the Reimbursement List of Public Health Insurance of Iran, Using the “Borda” Method: a Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Viyanchi, Amir; Rasekh, Hamid Reza; Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; SafiKhani, Hamid Reza

2015-01-01

Decision-making for medicines to be accepted in Iran’s public health insurance reimbursement list is a complex process and involves factors, which should be considered in applying a coverage for medicine costs. These processes and factors are not wholly assessed, while assessment of these factors is an essential need for getting a transparent and evidence-based approach toward medicine reimbursement in Iran. This paper aims to show an evidence-based approach toward medicine selection criteria to inform the medical reimbursement decision makers in Iranian health insurance organizations. To explore an adaptable decision-making framework while incorporating a method called “Borda” in medicine reimbursement assessment, we used the help of an expert group including decision makers and clinical researchers who are also policy makers to appraise the five chief criteria that have three sub criteria (Precision, Interpretability, and Cost). Also software “Math-lab”7, “SPSS” 17 and Excel 2007 were used in this study. “Borda” estimates the amount of perceived values from different criteria and creates a range from one to five while providing a comprehensive measurement of a large spectrum of criteria. Participants reported that the framework provided an efficient approach to systematic consideration in a pragmatic format consisting of many parts to guide decision-makings, including criteria and value (a model with the core of Borda) and evidences (medicine reimbursement based on criteria). The most important criterion for medicine acceptance in health insurance companies, in Iran, is the "life-threatening" factor and "evidence quality" is accounted as the fifth important factor. This pilot study showed the usefulness of incorporating Borda in medicine reimbursement decisions to support a transparent and systematic appraisal of health insurance companies' deeds. Further research is needed to advance Borda-based approaches that are effective on health insurance decision making. PMID:26664402

Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics Technology Evaluation and Selection Using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making Process and Non-Deterministic Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burg, Cecile M.; Hill, Geoffrey A.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Geiselhart, Karl A.

2004-01-01

The Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center has investigated revolutionary Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics (PAA) technologies and configurations for a Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) type aircraft as part of its research for NASA s Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) Project. Within the context of the long-term NASA goal of reducing the perceived aircraft noise level by a factor of 4 relative to 1997 state of the art, major configuration changes in the propulsion airframe integration system were explored with noise as a primary design consideration. An initial down-select and assessment of candidate PAA technologies for the BWB was performed using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) process consisting of organized brainstorming and decision-making tools. The assessments focused on what effect the PAA technologies had on both the overall noise level of the BWB and what effect they had on other major design considerations such as weight, performance and cost. A probabilistic systems analysis of the PAA configurations that presented the best noise reductions with the least negative impact on the system was then performed. Detailed results from the MADM study and the probabilistic systems analysis will be published in the near future.

Measurement of breast volume is a useful supplement to select candidates for surgical breast reduction.

PubMed

Ikander, Peder; Drejøe, Jennifer Berg; Lumholt, Pavia; Sjøstrand, Helle; Matzen, Steen; Quirinia, Anne; Siersen, Hans Erik; Ringberg, Anita; Lambaa, Susanne; Hölmich, Lisbet Rosenkrantz

2014-01-01

The indication for breast reduction in a public welfare or an insurance paid setting depends on the severity of the subjective symptoms and the clinical evaluation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of breast volume as an objective criterion to establish the indication for breast reduction surgery, thus establishing a standard decision basis that can be shared by surgeons and departments to secure patients fair and equal treatment opportunities. A total of 427 patients who were referred to three Danish public hospitals with breast hypertrophy in the period from January 2007 to March 2011 were included prospectively in the study. The patients' subjective complaints, height, weight and standard breast measurements were registered as well as the decision for or against surgery. Breast volume was measured using transparent plastic cups. Cut-off values for breast volume were calculated based on whether or not the patients were offered reduction surgery. Most patients (93%) with a breast volume below 800 cc were not offered surgery, while most with a volume exceeding 900 cc were offered surgery (94%). In the grey zone between 800 and 900 cc, the indication seemed to be less clear-cut, and additional parameters need to be included. Breast volume can be used as an objective criterion in addition to the presently used criteria. Breast volume can easily be measured and has become appreciated by plastic surgeons dealing with patients with breast hypertrophy as a tool which facilitates their decision-making and patients' acceptance of the decisions made. not relevant. not relevant.