Internal Climatic Influences From Secular To Multi-decadal Scales: Comparison Of NAO Reconstructions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; de Vernal, A.

2017-12-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major dominant mode of variability in winter atmospheric circulation, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks in the North Atlantic sector. To understand the role of this internal climatic oscillations on the past climate variability, several proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO were published during the last decades. Two of them are available during the past 1,200 years: a first NAO reconstruction published by Trouet et al. (2009) and a second proposed by Ortega et al. (2015). The major discrepancy between the two reconstructions concerns the transition period between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age. The first NAO reconstruction shows persistent positive phases during the MCA (AD 1000-1300) but this dominant trend is not highlighted in the reconstruction proposed by Ortega et al. (2015), asking the question of the influence of predictors used to reconstruct the NAO signal during the last millennia. In these study, we compare the two NAO reconstructions in order to determine the effect of bi-proxy or multi-proxy approach on the signal reconstructed. Using statistical and wavelet analysis methods, we conclude that the number of predictors used do not have impact on the signal reconstruct. The two reconstructions signals are characterized by similar variabilities expressed from multi-decadal to multi-secular scales. The major trend difference seems to be link to the type of the predictor and particularly the use of Greenland ice cores in the reconstruction proposed in 2015.

Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Done, J.; Ge, M.

2017-12-01

How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

2015-04-01

The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

2017-04-01

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

Multi-scale Holocene Asian monsoon variability deduced from a twin-stalagmite record in southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Wang, Yongjin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Richard Lawrence; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Liu, Dianbing; Shao, Qingfeng; Deng, Chao; Zhang, Zhenqiu; Wang, Quan

2016-07-01

We present two isotopic (δ18O and δ13C) sequences of a twin-stalagmite from Zhuliuping Cave, southwestern China, with 230Th dates from 14.6 to 4.6 ka. The stalagmite δ18O record characterizes orbital- to decadal-scale variability of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intensity, with the Holocene optimum period (HOP) between 9.8 and 6.8 ka BP which is reinforced by its co-varying δ13C data. The large multi-decadal scale amplitude of the cave δ18O indicates its high sensitivity to climate change. Four centennial-scale weak ASM events during the early Holocene are centered at 11.2, 10.8, 9.1 and 8.2 ka. They can be correlated to cold periods in the northern high latitudes, possibly resulting from rapid dynamics of atmospheric circulation associated with North Atlantic cooling. The 8.2 ka event has an amplitude more than two-thirds that of the Younger Dryas (YD), and is significantly stronger than other cave records in the Asia monsoon region, likely indicating a more severe dry climate condition at the cave site. At the end of the YD event, the δ13C record lags the δ18O record by 300-500 yr, suggesting a multi-centennial slow response of vegetation and soil processes to monsoon enhancement.

Multi-Proxy Reconstructions of Northeast Pacific Decadal Variability from Bivalve Mollusks and Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, B.; Griffin, D.

2017-12-01

Decadal-scale climate variability in the Northeast Pacific Ocean profoundly influences fisheries production, forest growth, wildfire, drought, and snowpack in western North America. However, there remains considerable and long-standing uncertainly in its behavior prior to AD 1900 and the extent to which 20th century dynamics are atypical in a multi-centennial context. Here, we target the leading EOF of SST in the northeastern Pacific (ARCSST) as an index of Pacific Decadal Variability, which has been dynamically linked to sea level pressure and unlike the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index, retains a linear warming trend. The ARCSST reconstruction is generated from a broad network of target-sensitive North American tree-ring data standardized using signal-free detrending to preserve lower frequency signals common to the original data. In a preliminary analysis, the mean of the approximately 50 chronologies that significantly (p < 0.01) correlate to the target variable explain 60% of the variance in cool-season ARCSST. Reconstruction skill is independently verified by three marine bivalve (Pacific geoduck; Panopea generosa) chronologies, the mean of which accounts for over 50% of the reconstruction variance over the common 1870-1900 interval. The nested reconstruction spans over 500 years and indicates that i) PDV is dominated by pentadecadal cycles, ii) century-long quiescent periods can occur, iii) 20th century regime shifts are typical, but iv) late 20th century warming is atypical in the longer-term context. Moreover, the reconstruction closely tracks paleofisheries datasets, particularly northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) abundance inferred from scale deposition rates in the Santa Barbara Basin.

On the origin of multi-decadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2012-11-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies associated with accelerating sea level rise. However, the causes of multi-decadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine the causes of the Greenland temperature variability, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA(G-NH)) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardised NH temperature from the standardised Greenland temperature. It decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); Polar amplification; and Regional variability (GTA(G-NH)). The Central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio = Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multi-decadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. Another orthogonal component of the Greenland and NH temperatures, GTP(G+NH) (Greenland temperature plus = standardized Greenland temperature + standardized NH temperature) exhibited the multi-decadal variations that were likely induced by large volcanic eruptions, increasing greenhouse gasses, and internal variation of climate. We found that the GTA(G-NH) has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modelling indicates that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and to associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul

2016-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning retrospective predictions at the decadal (5-years), seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; van den Hurk, B.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2016-12-01

The European consortium earth system model (EC-Earth; http://www.ec-earth.org) has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-08-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Simulated decadal modes of the NH atmospheric circulation arising from intra-decadal variability, external forcing and slow-decadal climate processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Jiale; Zheng, Xiaogu; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Liu, Haibo; Grainger, Simon; Ying, Kairan

2017-04-01

A decadal variance decomposition method is applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) and the sea level pressure (SLP) taken from the last millennium (850-1850 AD) experiment with the coupled climate model CCSM4, to estimate the contribution of the intra-decadal variability to the inter-decadal variability. By removing the intra-decadal variability from the total inter-decadal variability, the residual variability is more likely to be associated with slowly varying external forcings and slow-decadal climate processes, and therefore is referred to as slow-decadal variability. The results show that the (multi-)decadal changes of the NH 500-hPa GPH are primarily dominated by slow-decadal variability, whereas the NH SLP field is primarily dominated by the intra-decadal variability. At both pressure levels, the leading intra-decadal modes each have features related to the El Niño-southern oscillation, the intra-decadal variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO); while the leading slow-decadal modes are associated with external radiative forcing (mostly with volcanic aerosol loadings), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and the slow-decadal variability of AO and PDO. Moreover, the radiative forcing has much weaker effect to the SLP than that to the 500-hPa GPH.

300 Years of East African Climate Variability from Oxygen Isotopes in a Kenya Coral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, R.

2003-04-01

Instrumental records of climate variability from the western Indian Ocean are relatively scarce and short. Here I present a monthly resolution stable isotopic record acquired from a large living coral head (Porites) from the Malindi Marine Reserve, Kenya (3^oS, 40^oE). The annual chronology is precise and is based on exceptionally clear high and low density growth band couplets. The record extends from 1696 to 1996 A.D., making it the longest coral climate record from the Indian Ocean and one of the longest available worldwide. We have analyzed the uppermost portion of the coral colony in triplicate, using 3 separate cores. This upper section, used for calibration purposes, also provides estimates of signal fidelity and noise in the climate recording system internal to the colony. Coral δ18O at this site primarily records SST; linear regression of monthly coral δ18O vs. SST yields a slope of -0.26 ppm δ18O per ^oC, and δ18O explains ˜57% of the SST variance. Additional isotopic variability may result from changes in seawater δ18O due to local runoff or regional evaporation/precipitation balance, but these changes are likely to be small because local rainfall δ18O is not strongly depleted relative to seawater and salinity gradients are small. The coral record indicates a clear warming trend of about 1.5^oC that accelerates in the latest 20th century, superimposed on strong decadal variability that persists throughout the record. In fact, δ18O values in the 1990's exceed the 300 year envelope (they are lower) and correspond with apparently unprecedented coral bleaching in coastal East Africa. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In general, East African SST and rainfall are better correlated with Pacific ENSO indicators than with the Indian Monsoon at all periods (inter-annual through multi-decadal) but the correlation weakens after 1975. One dramatic new result we report here is a strong indication of a major cool and dry period from 1750--1820 A.D. This is the single largest multi-decadal anomaly of the past 300 years and correlates perfectly in time with the historically and anecdotally defined Lapanarat Drought. Our results indicate a strong link between multi-decadal tropical cold SST anomalies And far-reaching continental droughts in East Africa. Causes and links to other climate recording systems will be explored. Interannual-decadal SST variations are strongly coherent with ENSO indices and other ENSO-sensitive coral records on decadal and interannual time scales. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous work has argued that this component likely reflects a monsoonal influence. However, decadal variance in both Malindi and Seychelles (Charles et al. 1997) coral records is more strongly coherent with ENSO indices than with the India or East Africa rain indices. The coherency of both coral records with Pacific indicators suggests instead that Indian Ocean variability reflects decadal ENSO-like variability originating in the Pacific. These records don't correlate significantly with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation implying a dominant role for the tropical Pacific (as opposed to extra-tropical regions) as a source of regional decadal variability in the western Indian Ocean. This work confirms that the tropical Pacific can act as an agent of decadal climate variability over a very large spatial scale.

Decadal to centennial oscillations in the upper and lower boundaries of the San Diego, California margin Oxygen Minimum Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhre, S. E.; Hill, T. M.; Frieder, C.; Grupe, B.

2016-02-01

Here we present two new marine sediment archives from the continental margin of San Diego, California, USA, which record decadal to centennial oscillations in the hydrographic structure of the Eastern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). The two cores, located at 528 and 1,180 m water depth, record oceanographic history across overlapping timescales. Biotic communities, including Foraminifera, Echinodermata, Brachiopoda, Mollusca and Ostrocoda, were examined in subsurface (>10 cm sediment core depth) samples. Chronologies for both cores were developed with reservoir-corrected 14C dates of mixed planktonic Foraminifera and linearly interpolated sedimentation rates. Sediment ages for the cores range from 400-1,800 years before present. Indices of foraminiferal community density, diversity and evenness are applied as biotic proxies to track the intensification of the continental margin OMZ. Biotic communities at the shallower site reveal multi-decadal to centennial timescales of OMZ intensification, whereas the deeper site exhibits decadal to multi-decadal scales of hydrographic variability. Hypoxia-associated foraminiferal genera Uvigerina and Bolivina were compositionally dominant during intervals of peak foraminiferal density. Invertebrate assemblages often co-occurred across taxa groups, and thereby provide a broad trophic context for interpreting changes in the margin seafloor. Variability in the advection of Pacific Equatorial Water may mechanistically contribute to this described hydrographic variability. This investigation reconstructs historical timescales of OMZ intensification, seafloor ecological variability, and synchrony between open-ocean processes and regional climate.

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

A Zonal Mode in the Indian Ocean over the Past Millennium? Isotopic Evidence from Continental Climate Archives and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Cohen, L. R.; Chuman, A. F.; Huang, Y.

2011-12-01

We present new evidence for multi-decadal to millennial scale hydro-climatic change in the continental Indian Ocean region over the past two millennia. We assess regional hydrological variability using new records of the δD of terrestrial plant waxes from the sediments of several lakes in tropical East Africa and Indonesia. We compare these new data to previous δ18O and δD records from the region and interpret these results in light of an isotope-enabled climate model simulation of the past 130 years. Long-term trends in our data support a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)'s mean position over the past millennium, bringing progressively wetter conditions and D-depleted waxes to our southernmost site (~8°S) starting around 950 C.E. while maintaining overall wet conditions at our northernmost site (~0°N) until the end of the 19th century. Superimposed on this long-term trend are a series of pronounced, multi-decadal to centennial scale isotopic excursions that are of the same timing but in opposite directions on the two sides of the Indian Ocean. These zonally asymmetric isotopic fluctuations become progressively more pronounced beginning around 1400 C.E., with the onset of Little Ice Age cool conditions recorded in sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Northern Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). Previous work in the IPWP region suggests cooler SST, reduced boreal summer Asian monsoon intensity, and less ENSO-like activity during the Little Ice Age [Oppo et al., 2009, Nature 460:1113, and references therein], although recent paleolimnological reconstructions from Java indicate punctuated droughts during this time [Rodysill et al., 2010, Eos Trans. AGU, 91(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP51B-04]. Our records suggest that multi-decadal to centennial precipitation variability was in fact enhanced during this time period in parts of equatorial East Africa and western Indonesia. The direction of isotopic excursions in our records resembles the variations associated with the negative mode of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) observed in modern seasonal data. To investigate the potential for an IOZM-like mode to explain multi-decadal phenomena over the past millennium, we compare the variations in our records and in other previously published δ18O and δD records from the region to a model simulation of the past 130 years by the Stable Water Isotope INtercomparison Group (SWING). We find significant multi-decadal isotopic variability associated with the IOZM in the SWING experiment. We analyze the isotopic signature associated with both the IOZM and ENSO and use these findings to help interpret the multi-decadal variability evident in continental paleoclimate archives over the past millennium in the Indian Ocean region.

Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Gray, S.T.; Palecki, M.A.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests a link between drought occurrence in the conterminous United States (US) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in both the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on decadal to multidecadal (D2M) time scales. Results show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the most consistent indicator of D2M drought variability in the conterminous US during the 20th century, but during the 19th century the tropical Pacific is a more consistent indicator of D2 M drought. The interaction between El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the AMO explain a large part of the D2M drought variability in the conterminous US. More modeling studies are needed to reveal possible mechanisms linking low-frequency ENSO variability and the AMO with drought in the conterminous US. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Paleoclimatological perspective on the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, T. A.; Lehr, C.; Mellin, I.; Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.

2012-11-01

During recent decades the Mekong River has experienced substantial interannual variations between droughts and major floods. The causes of these variations have been sought in climate change and dam construction. However, so far little research has addressed whether these recent variations are significantly different to long-term variations in the past. Hence, the aim of our paper is to place the recent variations between droughts and floods into a historical and paleoclimatological context. To achieve this we analysed the Mekong's meteorological conditions over the period 1300-2005 with a basin scale approach by using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), which is a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset derived from tree-ring growth records. The correlation analyses, both in time and frequency domains, showed correlation between MADA and the Mekong's discharge over the period 1910-2005 which suggests that MADA can be used as proxy for the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin. We found that the meteorological conditions of the Mekong varied at multi-annual, decadal and centennial scales over the study period. We found two especially distinct features: firstly, multi-annual and decadal variation between prolonged wet and dry epochs; and secondly, epochs with higher or lower interannual variability between very dry and wet years. Furthermore we found two epochs with exceptionally large interannual variability, one at the beginning of 17th century and the other in the post 1950 epoch. Both epochs are characterized by distinct increases in variability between very wet and dry years. The variability in the post 1950 epoch is much higher compared to any of the other epochs included in this study. Thus, during recent decades the climate in the Mekong has exhibited features that have not been experienced for at least several centuries. These findings call for further climate research, particularly regarding increased climate variability, and resilient adaptation and development approaches in the basin.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and major drivers of variability between 1950 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Sidibe, M.; Mahe, G. M.; Paturel, J. E.; Anifowose, B. A.; Lawler, D.; Amoussou, E.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s, triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on water resources and food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we aim at investigating the key large-scale controls determining and modulating climate-river flows relationships at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2005. Using the first complete monthly streamflow data set (1950-2005) over western and central Africa, streamflow trend and variability are seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in other hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. In particular, the recent post-1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In addition, the time-evolution of river flows is shown to be primarily driven by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow, as determined using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns (such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which are together modulating the West African monsoon. Furthermore, influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, vegetation and land use cover, soil properties, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows have been examined. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current global to regional climate models to simulate such ranges of variability and understand regional hydroclimate, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2017-12-01

Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.Above results are discussed in a peer-review paper just being accepted for publication on Climate Dynamics (Alessandri et al., 2017; doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y).

Stochastically-forced Decadal Variability in Australian Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taschetto, A.

2015-12-01

Iconic Australian dry and wet periods were driven by anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as the worst short-term drought in the southeast in 1982 associated with the strong El Niño and the widespread "Big Wet" in 1974 linked with a La Niña event. The association with oceanic conditions makes droughts predictable to some extent. However, prediction can be difficult when there is no clear external forcing such as El Niños. Can dry spells be triggered and maintained with no ocean memory? In this study, we investigate the potential role of internal multi-century atmospheric variability in controlling the frequency, duration and intensity of long-term dry and wet spells over Australia. Two multi-century-scale simulations were performed with the NCAR CESM: (1) a fully-coupled simulation (CPLD) and (2) an atmospheric simulation forced by a seasonal SST climatology derived from the coupled experiment (ACGM). Results reveal that droughts and wet spells can indeed be generated by internal variability of the atmosphere. Those internally generated events are less severe than those forced by oceanic variability, however the duration of dry and wet spells longer than 3 years is comparable with and without the ocean memory. Large-scale ocean modes of variability seem to play an important role in producing continental-scale rainfall impacts over Australia. While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role in generating droughts in the fully coupled model, perturbations of monsoonal winds seem to be the main trigger of dry spells in the AGCM case. Droughts in the mid-latitude regions such as Tasmania can be driven by perturbations in the Southern Annular Mode, not necessarily linked to oceanic conditions even in the fully-coupled model. The mechanisms behind internally-driven mega-droughts and mega-wets will be discussed.

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 last millennium simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Kairan; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu; Lou, Jiale; Zhao, Tianbao

2018-02-01

The modes of variability that arise from the slow-decadal (potentially predictable) and intra-decadal (unpredictable) components of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China are examined, in a 1000 year (850-1850 AD) experiment using the CCSM4 model. Solar variations, volcanic aerosols, orbital forcing, land use, and greenhouse gas concentrations provide the main forcing and boundary conditions. The analysis is done using a decadal variance decomposition method that identifies sources of potential decadal predictability and uncertainty. The average potential decadal predictabilities (ratio of slow-to-total decadal variance) are 0.62 and 0.37 for the temperature and rainfall over China, respectively, indicating that the (multi-)decadal variations of temperature are dominated by slow-decadal variability, while precipitation is dominated by unpredictable decadal noise. Possible sources of decadal predictability for the two leading predictable modes of temperature are the external radiative forcing, and the combined effects of slow-decadal variability of the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), respectively. Combined AO and PDO slow-decadal variability is associated also with the leading predictable mode of precipitation. External radiative forcing as well as the slow-decadal variability of PDO are associated with the second predictable rainfall mode; the slow-decadal variability of Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is associated with the third predictable precipitation mode. The dominant unpredictable decadal modes are associated with intra-decadal/inter-annual phenomena. In particular, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the intra-decadal variability of the AMO, PDO and AO are the most important sources of prediction uncertainty.

Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Ning; Neelin, J. David; Lau, William K.-M.

1999-01-01

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.

2017-12-01

Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to paleoclimate time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderholm, H. W.; Folland, C. K.; Zhang, P.; Gunnarson, B. E.; Jeong, J. H.; Ren, H.

2017-12-01

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), strongly related to the latitude of the North Atlantic and European summer storm tracks, exerts a considerable influence on European summer climate variability and extremes. Here we extend the period covered by the SNAO from July and August to June, July and August (JJA). As well as marked interannual variability, the JJA SNAO has shown a large inter-decadal change since the 1970s. Decadally averaged, there has been a change from a very positive to a rather negative SNAO phase. This change in SNAO phase is opposite in sign from that expected by a number of climate models under enhanced greenhouse forcing by the late twenty first century. It has led to noticeably wetter summers in North West Europe in the last decade. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, SNAO variability is linked to variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST): observations and models indicate an association between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) where the cold (warm) phase of the AMO corresponds a positive (negative) phase of the SNAO. Observations also indicate a link with SST in the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic where, particularly on decadal time scales, SST warming may favour a more positive phase of the SNAO. Influences of Arctic climate change on North Atlantic and European atmospheric circulation may also exist, particularly reduced sea ice coverage, perhaps favouring the negative phase of the SNAO. A new tree-ring data based JJA SNAO reconstruction extending over the last millennium, as well as climate model output for the same period, enables us to examine the influence of North Atlantic SST and Arctic sea-ice coverage, as well as SNAO impacts on European summer climate, in a long-term, pre-industrial context.

Conference Summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, David B.

2014-07-01

This conference on ``Multi-wavelength AGN Surveys and Studies'' has provided a detailed look at the explosive growth over the past decade, of available astronomical data from a growing list of large scale sky surveys, from radio-to-gamma rays. We are entering an era were multi-epoch (months to weeks) surveys of the entire sky, and near-instantaneous follow-up observations of variable sources, are elevating time-domain astronomy to where it is becoming a major contributor to our understanding of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). While we can marvel at the range of extragalactic phenomena dispayed by sources discovered in the original ``Markarian Survey'' - the first large-scale objective prism survey of the Northern Sky carried out at the Byurakan Astronomical Observtory almost a half-century ago - it is clear from the talks and posters presented at this meeting that the data to be be obtained over the next decade will be needed if we are to finally understand which phase of galaxy evolution each Markarian Galaxy represents.

Decoding the spatial signatures of multi-scale climate variability - a climate network perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, R. V.; Jajcay, N.; Wiedermann, M.; Ekhtiari, N.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

During the last years, the application of complex networks as a versatile tool for analyzing complex spatio-temporal data has gained increasing interest. Establishing this approach as a new paradigm in climatology has already provided valuable insights into key spatio-temporal climate variability patterns across scales, including novel perspectives on the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or the emergence of extreme precipitation patterns in monsoonal regions. In this work, we report first attempts to employ network analysis for disentangling multi-scale climate variability. Specifically, we introduce the concept of scale-specific climate networks, which comprises a sequence of networks representing the statistical association structure between variations at distinct time scales. For this purpose, we consider global surface air temperature reanalysis data and subject the corresponding time series at each grid point to a complex-valued continuous wavelet transform. From this time-scale decomposition, we obtain three types of signals per grid point and scale - amplitude, phase and reconstructed signal, the statistical similarity of which is then represented by three complex networks associated with each scale. We provide a detailed analysis of the resulting connectivity patterns reflecting the spatial organization of climate variability at each chosen time-scale. Global network characteristics like transitivity or network entropy are shown to provide a new view on the (global average) relevance of different time scales in climate dynamics. Beyond expected trends originating from the increasing smoothness of fluctuations at longer scales, network-based statistics reveal different degrees of fragmentation of spatial co-variability patterns at different scales and zonal shifts among the key players of climate variability from tropically to extra-tropically dominated patterns when moving from inter-annual to decadal scales and beyond. The obtained results demonstrate the potential usefulness of systematically exploiting scale-specific climate networks, whose general patterns are in line with existing climatological knowledge, but provide vast opportunities for further quantifications at local, regional and global scales that are yet to be explored.

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and their relation to climate variability between 1950 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Rouché, Nathalie; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2017-04-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s. This triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we examine how rainfall variability has impacted on river flow at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2010, as well as the key large-scale controls on this relationship. For the first time, we establish a complete, gap-filled, monthly streamflow data set, which extends from 1950 to 2010, over the western and central African region. To achieve this, we used linear regression modelling across and between 600 flow gauging stations (see initial database information at http://www.hydrosciences.fr/sierem/index_en.htm). Streamflow trend and variability are then seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in three different rainfall data sets (i.e. CRU TS3.24, GPCC V7, IRD-HSM). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In particular, we note that the recent post 1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). Using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis, the time-evolution of western and central African river flows are analysed, and are all characterized by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns, such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and/or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Furthermore, hitherto-poorly understood hydroclimatic processes related to these teleconnections at decadal timescales will be examined in this study. Influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, shape, vegetation and landuse cover, soil type, ground-water level, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows will also be assessed. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current regional and global climate models to simulate such ranges of variability, to significantly improve regional hydroclimate understanding, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

Principles and practical implementation for high resolution multi-sensor QPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, C. V.; Lim, S.; Cifelli, R.

2011-12-01

The multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (MPE) is a principle and a practical concept and is becoming a well-known term in the scientific circles of hydrology and atmospheric science. The main challenge in QPE is that precipitation is a highly variable quantity with extensive spatial and temporal variability at multiple scales. There are MPE products produced from satellites, radars, models and ground sensors. There are MPE products at global scale (Heinemann et al. 2002), continental scale (Seo et al. 2010; Zhang et al. 2011) and regional scale (Kitzmiller et al. 2011). Lots of the MPE products are used to alleviate the problems of one type of sensor by another. Some multi-sensor products are used to move across scales. This paper looks at a comprehensive view of the "concept of multi sensor precipitation estimate", from different perspectives. This paper delineates the MPE problem into three categories namely, a) Scale based MPE, b) MPE for accuracy enhancement and coverage and c) Integrative across scales. For example, by introducing dual polarization radar data to the MPE system, QPE can be improved significantly. In last decade, dual polarization radars are becoming an important tool for QPE in operational networks. Dual polarization radars offer an advantage to interpret more accurate physical models by providing information of the size, shape, phase and orientation of hydrometers (Bringi and Chandrasekar 2001). In addition, these systems have the ability to provide measurements that are immune to absolute radar calibration and partial beam blockage as well as help in data quality enhancement. By integrating these characteristics of dual polarization radar, QPE performance can be improved in comparison of single polarization radar based QPE (Cifelli and Chandrasekar 2010). Dual-polarization techniques have been applied to S and C band radar systems for several decades and higher frequency system such as X band are now widely available to the radar community. One solution to the dilemma of precipitation variability across scales can be to supplement existing long-range radar networks with short-range higher frequency systems (X band). The smaller X band systems provide more portability and higher data resolution, and networks of these systems may be a cost-effective option for improved rainfall estimation for radar networks with large separation distances (McLaughlin et al. 2009). This paper will describe the principles of the MPE concept and implementation issues of within the context of the classification described above.

Using multi-resolution proxies to assess ENSO impacts on the mean state of the tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamperidou, C.; Conroy, J. L.

2016-12-01

Observations and model simulations indicate that the relationship between ENSO and the mean state of the tropical Pacific is a two-way interaction. On one hand, a strong zonal SST gradient (dSST) in the Pacific (colder cold tongue) increases the potential intensity of upcoming ENSO events and may lead to increased ENSO variance. On the other hand, in a period of increased ENSO activity, large events can warm the cold tongue at decadal scales via residual heating, and thus lead to reduced zonal SST gradient (ENSO rectification mechanism). The short length of the observational record hinders our ability to confidently evaluate which mechanism dominates in each period, and whether it is sensitive to external climate forcing. This question is effectively a question of interaction between two timescales: interannual and decadal. Paleoclimate proxies of different resolutions can help elucidate this question, since they can be independent records of variability in these separate timescales. Here, we use coral proxies of ENSO variability from across the Pacific and multi-proxy records of dSST at longer timescales. Proxies, models, and observations indicate that in periods of increased ENSO activity, dSST is negatively correlated with ENSO variance at decadal timescales, indicating that strong ENSO events may affect the decadal mean state via warming the cold tongue. Using climate model simulations we attribute this effect to residual nonlinear dynamical heating, thus supporting the ENSO rectification mechanism. On the contrary, in periods without strong events, ENSO variance and dSST are positively correlated, which indicates that the primary mechanism at work is the effect of the mean state on ENSO. Our analysis also quantitatively identifies the regions where paleoclimate proxies are needed in order to reduce the existing uncertainties in ENSO-mean state interactions. Hence, this study is a synthesis of observations, model simulations and paleoclimate proxy evidence guided by the fundamental and open question of multi-scale interactions in the tropical Pacific, and illustrates the need for multi-resolution paleoclimate proxies and their potential uses.

Precipitation changes in the western tropical Pacific over the past millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richey, Julie; Sachs, Julian P.

2016-01-01

Palau is linked to both meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and changes in the Pacific Walker Circula- tion (PWC) associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Thus, Palau’s hydroclimate should be sensitive to mean shifts in the ITCZ and PWC on decadal to centennial time scales. Using compound- specific hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of dinosterol in lake sediments, we generated a decadal-resolution proxy record of hydroclimatic variability in Palau spanning the past 800 yr. Results indicate a dry- ing trend during the Little Ice Age in Palau, consistent with a south- ward displacement of the ITCZ. In addition to the secular drying trend, there are persistent large (~20‰) multi-decadal to centennial oscillations in the δ2H record, the most recent of which indicates an abrupt shift to drier conditions in the mid-1970s that coincides with a decadal-scale negative shift in the Southern Oscillation Index.

Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

2017-12-01

This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

Decadal- to Centennial-Scale Variations in Anchovy Biomass in the Last 250 Years Inferred From Scales Preserved in Laminated Sediments off the Coast of Pisco, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvatteci, R.; Field, D.; Gutierrez, D.; Baumgartner, T.; Ferreira, V.; Velazco, F.; Niquen, M.; Guevara, R.; Sifeddine, A.; Ortlieb, L.

2005-12-01

The highly productive upwelling environment off the coast of Peru sustains one of the world's largest fisheries, the Peruvian anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens), but variability on interannual to decadal timescales results in dramatic variations in catch. We quantified variations in anchovy scale abundance preserved in laminated sediments collected at 300 m depth of the Peruvian margin (near Pisco, central Peru) to infer decadal- to centennial-scale population variability prior to the development of the fishery. High-resolution subsampling of 2.5 - 8.2 mm was done following the laminated structure of the core. A chronology based on downcore excess 210Pb activities and 14C-AMS ages indicate that samples represent an estimated 1-7 years in time. Anchovy scale deposition is correlated with anchovy landings at Pisco, indicating that scale deposition can be used as a proxy of (at least) local biomass. A small, but significant, reduction in anchovy scale width (0.2 mm) after the development of the fishery suggests a small effect of the fishery on anchovy size distributions. While decadal-scale variability in anchovy scale deposition is persistent throughout the record, a dramatic increase in scale flux occurred around 1860 A.D. and persists for approximately a century. Our results indicate that centennial-scale variability composes a large portion of the variability. However, decadal-scale variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is not correlated with the inferred biomass variability prior to the development of the fishery. Shifts in the distribution of the population may account for an additional component of the variability in scale deposition.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE PAGES

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

2016-12-02

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

2016-02-01

Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

Wintertime atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific frontal zone and its relationship to dominant atmospheric internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okajima, S.; Nakamura, H.; Nishii, K.; Miyasaka, T.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; Taguchi, B.

2016-02-01

A decadal-scale warm SST anomaly observed in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) tends to accompany a basin-scale anticyclonic anomaly in the troposphere that peaks in January. A set of sensitivity experiments conducted with an AGCM simulates an anticyclonic ensemble response over the North Pacific in January. As observed, the simulated anticyclonic response is in equivalent barotropic structure and maintained mainly through energy conversion from the ensemble mean circulation realized under the climatological SST, suggesting that the anomaly may have a characteristic of a dynamical mode. Conversion of both available potential energy (APE) and kinetic energy (KE) from the mean flow is important for the observed anomaly, while only the former is important for the model response. This is because the model response is located to the north of the jet core region whereas the observed anomaly is straddling the jet exit region, which appears to be in correspondence to the northwestward displacement of the center of the dominant atmospheric internal variability in our model relative to the observed center. Transient eddy feedback forcing also acts to maintain the observed anomaly rather efficiently, while its efficiency is much lower for the simulated response, which seems to be consistent with the poleward displacement of the anticyclonic response from the jet and stormtrack axes. A multi-decadal integration of our coupled GCM also suggests that atmospheric internal variability may be important for determining atmospheric response to the decadal SST variability of the SAFZ.

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Perona, Paolo

2017-07-01

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854-1999), climate proxies (AD 1600-1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2-7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55-80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47-54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

The role of clouds in driving North Atlantic multi-decadal climate variability in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, A. C.; Bellomo, K.; Murphy, L.

2013-12-01

Large scale warming and cooling periods of the North Atlantic is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The pattern of warming and cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20th century that has a characteristic spatial structure with maximum warming in the mid-latitudes and subtropics. This has been most often attributed to changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn affects poleward heat transport. A recent modeling study by Booth et al. (2012), however, suggested that aerosols can explain both the spatial pattern and temporal history of Atlantic SST through indirect effects of aerosols on cloud cover; although this idea is controversial (Zhang et al., 2013). We have found observational evidence that changes in cloud amount can drive SST changes on multi-decadal timescale. We hypothesize that a positive local feedback between SST and cloud radiative effect amplifies SST and gives rise to the observed pattern of SST change. During cool North Atlantic periods, a southward shift of the ITCZ strengthens the trade winds in the tropical North Atlantic and increases low-level cloud cover, which acts to amplify the SST cooling in the North Atlantic. During warm periods in the North Atlantic, the opposite response occurs. We are testing whether the amplitude of this feedback is realistically simulated in the CMIP5 models, and whether inter-model differences in the amplitude of the feedback can explain differences in model simulations of Atlantic multi-decadal variability.

Multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over the headwater catchments in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Jun; Chen, Ji; Wang, Keyi; Sivakumar, Bellie

2017-08-01

This paper examines the multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over 16 headwater catchments in the Pearl River basin, South China. The long-term daily streamflow data (1952-2000), obtained using a macro-scale hydrological model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and a routing scheme, are studied. Temporal features of streamflow variability at 10 different timescales, ranging from 6 days to 8.4 years, are revealed with the Haar wavelet transform. The principal component analysis (PCA) is performed to categorize the headwater catchments with the coherent modes of multi-scale wavelet spectra. The results indicate that three distinct modes, with different variability distributions at small timescales and seasonal scales, can explain 95% of the streamflow variability. A large majority of the catchments (i.e. 12 out of 16) exhibit consistent mode feature on multi-scale variability throughout three sub-periods (1952-1968, 1969-1984, and 1985-2000). The multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation are identified to be associated with the regional flood and drought tendency over the headwater catchments in southern China.

D/H Ratios From Sierra Nevada Varved Lake Sediments Record Decadal Hydroclimate Variability During The Medieval Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, L. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Sessions, A. L.; Charles, C. D.; Anderson, R. S.

2009-12-01

Assessment of the risks of persistent drought requires multiple realizations of decadal and centennial scale hydroclimate variability that extend beyond the relatively short period of instrumental record. Much remains to be learned about the so called “mega droughts” in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, where various lines of evidence point toward the occurrence of severe, decades-long droughts during Medieval times, approximately 900-1400 AD. Here we present a continuous, decadal scale record of hydroclimate variability in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that extends through the heart of the purported Medieval mega droughts. Previous work on the stable hydrogen isotope (D/H) ratios of refractory plant lipid compounds stored in lake sediments demonstrated that these compounds reflect the D/H values of lake water and/or shallow ground water--reservoirs both fed by local precipitation. Lake sediment D/H can therefore reflect the processes that determine D/H of precipitation, including temperature, humidity and moisture source. We have measured D/H of aquatic and terrestrial plant fatty acids extracted from a suite of sediment cores collected at Swamp Lake (elevation: 1554m), in Yosemite National Park, along the Sierra Nevada crest. Measurements with biennial resolution were made for two time periods: the 20th century and the 13th-15th centuries. D/H fluctuations in 20th century sediment contain relatively strong decadal structure. Comparison with instrumentally recorded climate variability reveals that lower D/H concentrations are associated with years of higher than normal annual precipitation, cooler than normal wintertime temperatures, and positive April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) anomalies throughout the Sierra Nevada, (and conversely for elevated D/H concentrations). The range of variability is approximately 50‰. These associations may be driven by the variable mass-balance impact of evaporation on the isotopic composition of lake water and shallow groundwater in the Swamp Lake watershed, depending on the extent to which these reservoirs are replenished seasonally by wintertime precipitation. Throughout the Medieval period, we observe significant (>30‰), reproducible D/H variability that also fluctuates on multi-year to decadal time scales, with mean values falling within the same range as those recorded over the 20th century. Strong covariance among the aquatic and terrestrial plant fatty acids analyzed, along with the mean values, lends confidence that primary isotopic signatures have been retained. These results can therefore be compared directly to other measures of hydroclimate variability throughout the last millennium, offering a unique new perspective on the mega-drought intervals.

Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

2003-01-01

It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Variability of basin-scale terrestrial water storage from a novel application of the water budget equation: the Amazon and the Mississippi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.; Mariotti, A.; Swenson, S.

2007-12-01

In an approach termed the P-E-R (or simply PER) method, we apply the basin water budget equation to diagnose the long-term variability of the total terrestrial water storage (TWS). The key input variables are observed precipitation (P) and runoff (R), and estimated evaporation (E). Unlike typical offline land-surface model estimate where only atmospheric variables are used as input, the direct use of observed runoff in the PER method imposes an important constraint on the diagnosed TWS. Although there lack basin-scale observations of evaporation, the tendency of E to have significantly less variability than the difference between precipitation and runoff (P-R) minimizes the uncertainties originating from estimated evaporation. Compared to the more traditional method using atmospheric moisture convergence (MC) minus R (MCR method), the use of observed precipitation in PER method is expected to lead to general improvement, especially in regions atmospheric radiosonde data are too sparse to constrain the atmospheric model analyzed MC such as in the remote tropics. TWS was diagnosed using the PER method for the Amazon (1970-2006) and the Mississippi Basin (1928-2006), and compared with MCR method, land-surface model and reanalyses, and NASA's GRACE satellite gravity data. The seasonal cycle of diagnosed TWS over the Amazon is about 300 mm. The interannual TWS variability in these two basins are 100-200 mm, but multi-dacadal changes can be as large as 600-800 mm. Major droughts such as the Dust Bowl period had large impact with water storage depleted by 500 mm over a decade. Within the short period 2003-2006 when GRACE data was available, PER and GRACE show good agreement both for seasonal cycle and interannual variability, providing potential to cross-validate each other. In contrast, land-surface model results are significantly smaller than PER and GRACE, especially towards longer timescales. While we currently lack independent means to verify these long-term changes, simple error analysis using 3 precipitation datasets and 3 evaporation estimates suggest that the multi-decadal amplitude can be uncertain up to a factor of 2, while the agreement is high on interannual timescales. The large TWS variability implies the remarkable capacity of land-surface in storing and taking up water that may be under-represented in models. The results also suggest the existence of water storage memories on multi-year time scales, significantly longer than typically assumed seasonal timescales associated with surface soil moisture.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

2011-01-01

Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

A note on Bjerkne's hypothesis for North Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, Kirk; Stouffer, Ron

1991-01-01

On decadal time-scales the historical surface temperature record over land in the Northern Hemisphere is dominated by polar amplified variations. These variations are coherent with SST anomalies concentrated in the Northwest Atlantic, but extending with lesser amplitude into the North Pacific as well. Bierknes suggested that multi-year SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic were due to irregular changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. In support of the Bjerknes hypothesis there is evidence that winter overturning in the Labrador Sea was suppressed for a brief period from 1967-1969 by a cap of relative fresh water at the surface. Cause and effect are unclear, but this event was associated with a marked cooling of the entire Northern Hemisphere. The difference in SST averaged over the Northern Hemisphere oceans and SST averaged over the Southern Hemisphere oceans from the equator to 40°S is coherent with Sahel summer rainfall on decadal time scales. Empirical evidence is supported by numerical experiments with the British Meteorological Office atmospheric climate model which simulate augmented monsoonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa in response to realistic warm SST anomalies in the Northwest Atlantic. A coupled ocean-atmosphere global model exhibits two equilibrium climate states. One has an active thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and the other does not. The two climate states provide an extreme example which illustrates the type of large scale air sea interaction Bjerknes visualized as a mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on decadal time-scales.

Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Ocean Active Upper-Layer Heat Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byshev, Vladimir I.; Neiman, Victor G.; Anisimov, Mikhail V.; Gusev, Anatoly V.; Serykh, Ilya V.; Sidorova, Alexandra N.; Figurkin, Alexander L.; Anisimov, Ivan M.

2017-07-01

Spatial patterns in multi-decadal variability in upper ocean heat content for the last 60 years are examined using a numerical model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russia (INM Model) and sea water temperature-salinity data from the World Ocean Database (in: Levitus, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 66, U.S. Wash.: Gov. Printing Office, 2009). Both the model and the observational data show that the heat content of the Active Upper Layer (AUL) in particular regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans have experienced prominent simultaneous variations on multi-decadal (25-35 years) time scales. These variations are compared earlier revealed climatic alternations in the Northern Atlantic region during the last century (Byshev et al. in Doklady Earth Sci 438(2):887-892, 2011). We found that from the middle of 1970s to the end of 1990s the AUL heat content decreased in several oceanic regions, while the mean surface temperature increased on Northern Hemisphere continents according to IPCC (in: Stocker et al. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013). This means that the climate-forcing effect of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in certain energy-active areas determines not only local climatic processes, but also have an influence on global-scale climate phenomena. Here we show that specific regional features of the AUL thermal structure are in a good agreement with climatic conditions on the adjacent continents. Further, the ocean AUL in the five distinctive regions identified in our study have resumed warming in the first decade of this century. By analogy inference from previous climate scenarios, this may signal the onset of more continental climate over mainlands.

Multi-species coral Sr/Ca-based sea-surface temperature reconstruction using Orbicella faveolata and Siderastrea siderea from the Florida Straits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flannery, Jennifer A.; Richey, Julie N.; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Poore, Richard Z.; DeLong, Kristine L.

2017-01-01

We present new, monthly-resolved Sr/Ca-based sea-surface temperature (SST) records from two species of massive coral, Orbicella faveolata and Siderastrea siderea, from the Dry Tortugas National Park, FL, USA (DTNP). We combine these new records with published data from three additional S. siderea coral colonies to generate a 278-year long multi-species stacked Sr/Ca-SST record from DTNP. The composite record of mean annual Sr/Ca-SST at DTNP shows pronounced decadal-scale variability with a range of 1 to 2°C. Notable cool intervals in the Sr/Ca-derived SST lasting about a decade centered at ~1845, ~1935, and ~1965 are associated with reduced summer Sr/Ca-SST (monthly maxima < 29°C), and imply a reduction in the spatial extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). There is significant coherence between the composite DTNP Sr/Ca-SST record and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, with the AMO lagging Sr/Ca-SST at DTNP by 9 years. Low frequency variability in the Gulf Stream surface transport, which originates near DTNP, may provide a link for the lagged relationship between multidecadal variability at DTNP and the AMO.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.

North Atlantic sea-level variability during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrels, Roland; Long, Antony; Saher, Margot; Barlow, Natasha; Blaauw, Maarten; Haigh, Ivan; Woodworth, Philip

2014-05-01

Climate modelling studies have demonstrated that spatial and temporal sea-level variability observed in North Atlantic tide-gauge records is controlled by a complex array of processes, including ice-ocean mass exchange, freshwater forcing, steric changes, changes in wind fields, and variations in the speed of the Gulf Stream. Longer records of sea-level change, also covering the pre-industrial period, are important as a 'natural' and long-term baseline against which to test model performance and to place recent and future sea-level changes and ice-sheet change into a long-term context. Such records can only be reliably and continuously reconstructed from proxy methods. Salt marshes are capable of recording decimetre-scale sea-level variations with high precision and accuracy. In this paper we present four new high-resolution proxy records of (sub-) decadal sea-level variability reconstructed from salt-marsh sediments in Iceland, Nova Scotia, Maine and Connecticut that span the past 400 to 900 years. Our records, based on more than 100 new radiocarbon analyses, Pb-210 and Cs-137 measurements as well as other biological and geochemical age markers, together with hundreds of new microfossil observations from contemporary and fossil salt marshes, capture not only the rapid 20th century sea-level rise, but also small-scale (decimetre, multi-decadal) sea-level fluctuations during preceding centuries. We show that in Iceland three periods of rapid sea-level rise are synchronous with the three largest positive shifts of the reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Along the North American east coast we compare our data with salt-marsh records from New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida and observe a trend of increased pre-industrial sea-level variability from south to north (Florida to Nova Scotia). Mass changes and freshwater forcing cannot explain this pattern. Based on comparisons with instrumental sea-level data and modelling studies we hypothesise that multi-decadal to centennial changes in wind and air pressure are more important than mass flux from land-based ice as drivers of North Atlantic sea-level variability during the last millennium.

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Intra- to Multi-Decadal Temperature Variability over the Continental United States: 1896-2012

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Optimal Ranking Regime (ORR) method was used to identify intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output – a time series’ most significant non-overlapping periods of high o...

Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, H.; Feser, F.; Weisse, R.; Zahn, M.

2009-12-01

Regional climate models, which are constrained by large scale information (spectral nudging) provided by re-analyses, allow for the construction of a mostly homogeneous description of regional weather statistics since about 1950. The potential of this approach has been demonstrated for Northern Europe. That data set, named CoastDat, does not only contain hourly data on atmospheric variables, in particular wind, but also on marine weather, i.e., short term water level, current and sea state variations. Another example is the multi-decadal variability of Polar Lows in the subarctic waters. The utility of such data sets is broad, from risk assessments related to coastal wind and wave conditions, assessment of determining the causes for regional climate change, a-posteriori analysis of the efficiency of environmental legislation (example: lead). In the paper, the methodology is outlined, examples are provided and the utility of the product discussed.

Increasing Influence of Societal Response Variables in Coastal Evolution Projections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; McCoy, C. A.; Pietrafesa, L. J.

2010-12-01

Recent efforts to project changes in coastal erosion and vulnerability of the state of South Carolina’s (SC’s) oceanfront for different scenarios of future sea level have reinforced the significance of the influence of societal modifications and response to past and anticipated coastal change in these systems. For large reaches of the SC coast human interactions have been a dominant signal driving coastal change across annual to decadal scales. Over the last 20 years, SC’s shoreline has been advanced seawards in many areas due to a combination of sustained societal commitment to beach nourishment and to a lull in atmospheric storms; reversing the long-term erosional trend of shoreline change. Adjacent areas not yet threatened or where coastal defense is unsupported economically have continued to migrate landwards. Locally, efforts focused on stabilizing the subaerial beach have not moderated long-term shoreward migration of the shoreface changing the overall morphology of the coastal boundary waves and currents are operating against. These societal effects, coupled with realistic, substative assessments of future atmospheric storm activity and sea level variability, both over scales of seasons to multi-decades, require consideration to realistically project future coastal behavior across time and spatial scales for planning and resource management. As with future climate and sea level variability effects on the shoreline, the scale and intensity of societal response is not static or precisely projected spatially and temporally into the future. With continued expansion of coastal development and erosion into previously lightly developed and defended coastal areas, societal influences should be expected to increase. Increasing cost of larger scale defenses will likely drive pressure for hardened structures to enhance ”softer” nourishment strategies. However, this strategy would further modify the ability of nature to respond to natural forces. Nourishment programs are strongly cyclic and can act in or out of phase with natural cyclic (inlet migration, sea level variability) or stochastic (storms) drivers with significant effects on coastal response and predictions of coastal behavior. Economic cycles and events may similarly moderate timing and scale of coastal defense relative to natural drivers. Societal decisions to not, enhance and or even abandon and remove existing engineering structures as future forces and costs increase, can result in a disproportional response and potentially failure of a section of coast. Some communities have expressed confidence in the ability to maintain the oceanfront shoreline against most projections of sea level rise over the next 100 years. The long-term trend in sea level change may be less important than naturally occurring regional scale, seasonal to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in sea level; and these are complex but deterministic. There is less confidence, however, in the ability to combat passive submergence and associated flooding issues behind the immediate oceanfront. To the extent that may influence commitment to defend the oceanfront could strongly influence coastal behavior and stability in the long term.

Quantifying climate changes of the Common Era for Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luoto, Tomi P.; Nevalainen, Liisa

2017-10-01

In this study, we aim to quantify summer air temperatures from sediment records from Southern, Central and Northern Finland over the past 2000 years. We use lake sediment archives to estimate paleotemperatures applying fossil Chironomidae assemblages and the transfer function approach. The used enhanced Chironomidae-based temperature calibration set was validated in a 70-year high-resolution sediment record against instrumentally measured temperatures. Since the inferred and observed temperatures showed close correlation, we deduced that the new calibration model is reliable for reconstructions beyond the monitoring records. The 700-year long temperature reconstructions from three sites at multi-decadal temporal resolution showed similar trends, although they had differences in timing of the cold Little Ice Age (LIA) and the initiation of recent warming. The 2000-year multi-centennial reconstructions from three different sites showed resemblance with each other having clear signals of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and LIA, but with differences in their timing. The influence of external forcing on climate of the southern and central sites appeared to be complex at the decadal scale, but the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was closely linked to the temperature development of the northern site. Solar activity appears to be synchronous with the temperature fluctuations at the multi-centennial scale in all the sites. The present study provides new insights into centennial and decadal variability in air temperature dynamics in Northern Europe and on the external forcing behind these trends. These results are particularly useful in comparing regional responses and lags of temperature trends between different parts of Scandinavia.

Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-05-01

Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB).In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Paul D.; Alexander, M. Joan; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Butler, Amy H.; Davies, Huw C.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lane, Todd P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Martius, Olivia; Maue, Ryan N.; Peltier, W. Richard; Sato, Kaoru; Scaife, Adam A.; Zhang, Chidong

2017-11-01

This paper synthesizes and summarizes atmospheric variability on time scales from seconds to decades through a phenomenological census. We focus mainly on unforced variability in the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. In addition to atmosphere-only modes, our scope also includes coupled modes, in which the atmosphere interacts with the other components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The topics covered include turbulence on time scales of seconds and minutes, gravity waves on time scales of hours, weather systems on time scales of days, atmospheric blocking on time scales of weeks, the Madden-Julian Oscillation on time scales of months, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on time scales of years, and the North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, Pacific Decadal, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations on time scales of decades. The paper serves as an introduction to a special collection of Geophysical Research Letters on atmospheric variability. We hope that both this paper and the collection will serve as a useful resource for the atmospheric science community and will act as inspiration for setting future research directions.

Large-Scale, Multi-Sensor Atmospheric Data Fusion Using Hybrid Cloud Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Hua, H.; Fetzer, E. J.

2015-12-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, MODIS, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over decades. Moving to multi-sensor, long-duration presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over 10 years of data. HySDS is a Hybrid-Cloud Science Data System that has been developed and applied under NASA AIST, MEaSUREs, and ACCESS grants. HySDS uses the SciFlow workflow engine to partition analysis workflows into parallel tasks (e.g. segmenting by time or space) that are pushed into a durable job queue. The tasks are "pulled" from the queue by worker Virtual Machines (VM's) and executed in an on-premise Cloud (Eucalyptus or OpenStack) or at Amazon in the public Cloud or govCloud. In this way, years of data (millions of files) can be processed in a massively parallel way. Input variables (arrays) are pulled on-demand into the Cloud using OPeNDAP URLs or other subsetting services, thereby minimizing the size of the transferred data. We are using HySDS to automate the production of multiple versions of a ten-year A-Train water vapor climatology under a MEASURES grant. We will present the architecture of HySDS, describe the achieved "clock time" speedups in fusing datasets on our own nodes and in the Amazon Cloud, and discuss the Cloud cost tradeoffs for storage, compute, and data transfer. Our system demonstrates how one can pull A-Train variables (Levels 2 & 3) on-demand into the Amazon Cloud, and cache only those variables that are heavily used, so that any number of compute jobs can be executed "near" the multi-sensor data. Decade-long, multi-sensor studies can be performed without pre-staging data, with the researcher paying only his own Cloud compute bill.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

The modulation of Tibetan Plateau heating on the multi-scale northernmost margin activity of East Asia summer monsoon in northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jie; Liu, Chen; Chen, Haishan

2018-02-01

The northernmost margin of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) could well reflect wet/dry climate variability in the EASM marginal zone (northern China). The study shows that EASM occurs in northern China from Meiyu period to midsummer, and it is also the advancing period of the northern margin of EASM (NMEASM) before the 43rd pentad. NMEASM activity exhibits multi-scale variability, at cycles of 2-3-yr, 4-6-yr and 9-12-yr, which respond not only to EASM intensity but also to westerly circulation anomaly, exhibiting the mid-latitude Eurasian waves and the high-latitude Eurasian teleconnection (EU) patterns. The positive anomalies of Silk Road pattern and EU pattern in recent two decades contribute to the enhanced west-ridge and east-trough anomaly around 120°E over northern China, leading to divergence of moisture flux and north wind anomaly, which is helpful for southward western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and southward NMEASM. Negative Eurasian pattern along subtropical Jet leads to anticyclone anomaly over south of the Yangtze River, deep trough and north wind anomaly along the west coast of the subtropical Pacific, contributing to southward WPSH and NMEASM at the cycle of 4-6-yr. Remote forcing sources of these anomalous Eurasian waves include North Europe, north of Caspian Sea, Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau and the west of Lake Baikal; the south of Lake Baikal is a local forcing region. The Tibetan Plateau heating and snow cover could modulate Eurasian wave pattern at multi-scale, which could be used as prediction reference of multi-scale NMEASM.

A novel way to detect correlations on multi-time scales, with temporal evolution and for multi-variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Xoplaki, Elena; Zhu, Congwen; Luterbacher, Juerg

2016-06-01

In this paper, two new methods, Temporal evolution of Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDCCA) and Temporal evolution of Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDPCCA), are proposed by generalizing DCCA and DPCCA. Applying TDCCA/TDPCCA, it is possible to study correlations on multi-time scales and over different periods. To illustrate their properties, we used two climatological examples: i) Global Sea Level (GSL) versus North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and ii) Summer Rainfall over Yangtze River (SRYR) versus previous winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find significant correlations between GSL and NAO on time scales of 60 to 140 years, but the correlations are non-significant between 1865-1875. As for SRYR and PDO, significant correlations are found on time scales of 30 to 35 years, but the correlations are more pronounced during the recent 30 years. By combining TDCCA/TDPCCA and DCCA/DPCCA, we proposed a new correlation-detection system, which compared to traditional methods, can objectively show how two time series are related (on which time scale, during which time period). These are important not only for diagnosis of complex system, but also for better designs of prediction models. Therefore, the new methods offer new opportunities for applications in natural sciences, such as ecology, economy, sociology and other research fields.

Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

2017-11-01

An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.; Graham, N.E.

1998-01-01

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Impacts of Pacific SSTs on California Winter Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

2017-12-01

Consecutive below-normal precipitation years and resulted multi-year droughts are critical issues as the recent 2012-2015 drought of California caused tremendous socio-economic damages. However, studies on the causes of the multi-year droughts lack. In this study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts (1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2015) in California during the last two decades, we investigated the atmospheric and oceanic characteristics of the three drought events for winter (December-February, DJF) in order to understand large-scale circulations that are responsible for initiation, maintenance, and termination of the droughts. It was found that abnormally developed upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific are primarily responsible for precipitation deficits and then droughts. These ridges developed when negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) including La Niña events are pervasive in the tropical Pacific. After 3 or 4 years, the droughts ended under the opposite conditions; upper-tropospheric troughs in the North Pacific with El Niño events in the tropics. Results of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for the 41-year (1974/75-2014/15) 500 hPa geopotential height in DJF revealed that, during the drought periods, the positive phases of the first and second EOF mode (EOF1+ and EOF2+, respectively) were active one by one, positioning upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific. While EOF1+ is associated with cold tropical central Pacific and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), EOF2+ is associated with the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern (i.e., warm western tropical Pacific and cool eastern tropical Pacific near the southern Peru). Based on these results, we developed a regression model for winter precipitation. While dominant SST factors differ by decades, for the recent two decades (1994/1995-2014/2015), 56% variability of DJF precipitation is explained by the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern and PDO (NINO3.4 signal removed) together. These results suggest that SST variability not only in the western/eastern tropical Pacific but also in the North Pacific independently contribute to precipitation variability and long-term droughts in California.

Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

2015-04-01

Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como operations.

Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

PubMed Central

Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

2016-01-01

Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years). Moreover, the 2–3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements. PMID:27007388

Stochastic simulation and decadal prediction of hydroclimate in the Western Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, A. W.; Chekroun, M. D.; Cook, E.; D'Arrigo, R.; Ghil, M.; Greene, A. M.; Holsclaw, T.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Lall, U.; Lu, M.; Smyth, P.

2012-12-01

Improved estimates of climate over the next 10 to 50 years are needed for long-term planning in water resource and flood management. However, the task of effectively incorporating the results of climate change research into decision-making face a ``double conflict of scales'': the temporal scales of climate model projections are too long, while their usable spatial scales (global to planetary) are much larger than those needed for actual decision making (at the regional to local level). This work is designed to help tackle this ``double conflict'' in the context of water management over monsoonal Asia, based on dendroclimatic multi-century reconstructions of drought indices and river flows. We identify low-frequency modes of variability with time scales from interannual to interdecadal based on these series, and then generate future scenarios based on (a) empirical model decadal predictions, and (b) stochastic simulations generated with autoregressive models that reproduce the power spectrum of the data. Finally, we consider how such scenarios could be used to develop reservoir optimization models. Results will be presented based on multi-century Upper Indus river discharge reconstructions that exhibit a strong periodicity near 27 years that is shown to yield some retrospective forecasting skill over the 1700-2000 period, at a 15-yr yield time. Stochastic simulations of annual PDSI drought index values over the Upper Indus basin are constructed using Empirical Model Reduction; their power spectra are shown to be quite realistic, with spectral peaks near 5--8 years.

Remote and Local Influences in Forecasting Pacific SST: a Linear Inverse Model and a Multimodel Ensemble Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faggiani Dias, D.; Subramanian, A. C.; Zanna, L.; Miller, A. J.

2017-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific sector is well known to vary on time scales from seasonal to decadal, and the ability to predict these SST fluctuations has many societal and economical benefits. Therefore, we use a suite of statistical linear inverse models (LIMs) to understand the remote and local SST variability that influences SST predictions over the North Pacific region and further improve our understanding on how the long-observed SST record can help better guide multi-model ensemble forecasts. Observed monthly SST anomalies in the Pacific sector (between 15oS and 60oN) are used to construct different regional LIMs for seasonal to decadal prediction. The forecast skills of the LIMs are compared to that from two operational forecast systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) revealing that the LIM has better skill in the Northeastern Pacific than NMME models. The LIM is also found to have comparable forecast skill for SST in the Tropical Pacific with NMME models. This skill, however, is highly dependent on the initialization month, with forecasts initialized during the summer having better skill than those initialized during the winter. The forecast skill with LIM is also influenced by the verification period utilized to make the predictions, likely due to the changing character of El Niño in the 20th century. The North Pacific seems to be a source of predictability for the Tropics on seasonal to interannual time scales, while the Tropics act to worsen the skill for the forecast in the North Pacific. The data were also bandpassed into seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales to identify the relationships between time scales using the structure of the propagator matrix. For the decadal component, this coupling occurs the other way around: Tropics seem to be a source of predictability for the Extratropics, but the Extratropics don't improve the predictability for the Tropics. These results indicate the importance of temporal scale interactions in improving predictability on decadal timescales. Hence, we show that LIMs are not only useful as benchmarks for estimates of statistical skill, but also to isolate contributions to the forecast skills from different timescales, spatial scales or even model components.

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, A.W.; Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, K.

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Ghil, Michael

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology and Variability Spanning 6.5 Decades from Regional Dynamical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman-Morales, J.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region. In spite of their tremendous episodic impacts on the health, economy and mood of the region, climate-scale behavior of SAW is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product and construct an hourly SAW catalogue spanning 65 years. We describe the long-term SAW climatology at relevant time-space resolutions, i.e, we developed local and regional SAW indices and analyse their variability on hourly, daily, annual, and multi-decadal timescales. Local and regional SAW indices are validated with available anemometer observations. Characteristic behaviors are revealed, e.g. the SAW intensity-duration relationship. At interdecadal time scales, we find that seasonal SAW activity is sensitive to prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system that are also known to affect the hydroclimate of this region. Lastly, we do not find any long-term trend in SAW frequency and intensity as previously reported. Instead, we identify a significant long-term trend in SAW behavior whereby contribution of extreme SAW events to total seasonal SAW activity has been increasing at the expense of moderate events. These findings motivate further investigation on SAW evolution in future climate and its impact on wildfires.

Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, P.; Kumar, D.; Yun, J.; Short, G.; Klausner, J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2014-12-01

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the continental United States (US) at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are anyway difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risks are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Acknowledgment: Funding provided by US DOE's ARPA-E through Award DE-AR0000374.

Continental-Scale Temperature Reconstructions from the PAGES 2k Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.

2012-12-01

We present a major new synthesis of seven regional temperature reconstructions to elucidate the global pattern of variations and their association with climate-forcing mechanisms over the past two millennia. To coordinate the integration of new and existing data of all proxy types, the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project developed the 2k Network. It comprises nine working groups representing eight continental-scale regions and the oceans. The PAGES 2k Consortium, authoring this paper, presently includes 79 representatives from 25 countries. For this synthesis, each of the PAGES 2k working groups identified the proxy climate records for reconstructing past temperature and associated uncertainty using the data and methodologies that they deemed most appropriate for their region. The datasets are from 973 sites where tree rings, pollen, corals, lake and marine sediment, glacier ice, speleothems, and historical documents record changes in biologically and physically mediated processes that are sensitive to temperature change, among other climatic factors. The proxy records used for this synthesis are available through the NOAA World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. On long time scales, the temperature reconstructions display similarities among regions, and a large part of this common behavior can be explained by known climate forcings. Reconstructed temperatures in all regions show an overall long-term cooling trend until around 1900 C.E., followed by strong warming during the 20th century. On the multi-decadal time scale, we assessed the variability among the temperature reconstructions using principal component (PC) analysis of the standardized decadal mean temperatures over the period of overlap among the reconstructions (1200 to 1980 C.E.). PC1 explains 35% of the total variability and is strongly correlated with temperature reconstructions from the four Northern Hemisphere regions, and with the sum of external forcings including solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases. PC2 captures 18% of the variability and is correlated most strongly with the Southern Hemisphere regions of Australasia and South America. PC3 captures 15% of the variability in the temperature reconstructions with a predominant loading from Antarctica. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades (10th percentiles) in each region were analyzed and compared with climate forcings. Only 22% of the regionally coldest decades can be ascribed to extreme minima in solar forcing, and 17% to volcanic forcing. The association between extremely warm regional temperatures and solar maxima is weaker than for cold temperatures and their corresponding solar minima. Spatially, volcanic forcing moderately increased the frequency of extremely cold decades in the Northern Hemisphere reconstructions, but had no significant effect in the Southern Hemisphere. Solar and volcanic impacts do not induce globally consistent decadal temperature shifts, but they increase the probability of cooling or warming at the continental scale. The majority of cold and warm decades identified here cannot be explained by changes in the records of volcanic activity or solar forcing. This indicates that at this timescale, prior to the anthropogenic buildup of greenhouse gases, unforced internal variability in the coupled ocean/atmosphere system was the dominant control on temperature variation.

Accounting for Rainfall Spatial Variability in Prediction of Flash Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, M.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.; Vergara, H. J.

2016-12-01

Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 20,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. Next the model is used to predict flash flooding characteristics all over the continental U.S., specifically over regions poorly covered by hydrological observations. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

Accounting for rainfall spatial variability in the prediction of flash floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, Manabendra; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hong, Yang; Vergara, Humberto; Flamig, Zachary L.

2017-04-01

Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 15,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. The database has been subjected to rigorous quality control by accounting for radar beam height and percentage snow in basins. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, De-Zheng; Bryan, Frank

Largely following the order in which the lectures were given in the graduate class on climate dynamics at the University of Colorado, the book starts with the topic of moist convection in the tropics. Summarizing decades-long research into a succinct article, Moncrieff [this volume] reviews the state of the art of understanding of organized precipitating convective systems with an eye to improving the representation of such systems in global weather and climate models. Moncrieff also addresses in this chapter the multi-scale convective organization in the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a major source of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. The second chapter proceeds to a prominent phenomenon on the seasonal time scale: monsoons. In covering this topic, Li [this volume] focuses his analysis on the Asian monsoon and dissects the physical processes that are responsible for its intraseasonal and interannual variability. All three subcomponents of the Asian monsoon are covered here: the Indian monsoon, the East Asian monsoon, and the Western North Pacific monsoon.

AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability andmore » predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.« less

Searching for forcing signatures in decadal patterns of shoreline change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burningham, H.; French, J.

2016-12-01

Analysis of shoreline position at spatial scales of the order 10 - 100 km and at a multi-decadal time-scale has the potential to reveal regional coherence (or lack of) in the primary controls on shoreline tendencies and trends. Such information is extremely valuable for the evaluation of climate forcing on coastal behaviour. Segmenting a coast into discrete behaviour units based on these types of analyses is often subjective, however, and in the context of pervasive human interventions and alongshore variability in ocean climate, determining the most important controls on shoreline dynamics can be challenging. Multivariate analyses provide one means to resolve common behaviours across shoreline position datasets, thereby underpinning a more objective evaluation of possible coupling between shorelines at different scales. In an analysis of the Suffolk coast (eastern England) we explore the use of multivariate statistics to understand and classify mesoscale coastal behaviour. Suffolk comprises a relatively linear shoreline that shifts from east-facing in the north to southeast-facing in the south. Although primarily formed of a beach foreshore backed by cliffs or shingle barrier, the shoreline is punctuated at 3 locations by narrow tidal inlets with offset entrances that imply a persistent north to south sediment transport direction. Tidal regime decreases south to north from mesotidal (3.6m STR) to microtidal (1.9m STR), and the bimodal wave climate (northeast and southwest modes) presents complex local-scale variability in nearshore conditions. Shorelines exhibit a range of decadal behaviours from rapid erosion (up to 4m/yr) to quasi-stability that cannot be directly explained by the spatial organisation of contemporary landforms or coastal defences. A multivariate statistical approach to shoreline change analysis helps to define the key modes of change and determine the most likely forcing factors.

PDO and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Control Grassland Plant Production across the United States Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parton, W. J.; Del Grosso, S. J.; Smith, W. K.; Chen, M.

2017-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are multi-annual to multi-decadal climate patterns defined by ocean temperature anomalies that can strongly modulate climate variability. Here we evaluated the impacts of PDO and ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on observed grassland above ground plant production (ANPP; 1940 to 2015), spring (April to July) cumulative actual evapotranspiration (iAET; 1900 to 2015) , and satellite-derived growing season (April to October) cumulative normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI 1982 to 2015) across the United States Great Plains. The results showed that grassland ANPP is well correlated to iAET (r2=0.69) and iNDVI (r2=0.50 to 0.70) for the Cheyenne Wyoming and Northeastern Colorado long-term ANPP sites. At the site scale, during the negative phase of the PDO, we find ANPP is much lower (25%) and that variability of iAET, iNDVI, and ANPP are much higher (2 to 3 times) compared to the warm phase PDO. Further, we find there is a high frequency of below normal iAET when PDO and ENSO SST's are both negative, while there is a high frequency of above normal iAET when PDO and ENSO values are positive. At the regional scale, iAET, iNDVI, and modeled ANPP data sets show that plant production and iAET values are high in the southern Great Plains and low in the northern Great Plains when spring PDO and ENSO are both in the positive phase, while the opposite pattern is observed when both PDO and ENSO are both in the negative phase. Variability of iAET, iNDVI, and modeled ANPP are much higher in the central Great Plains during the negative phase PDO. We demonstrate clearly that the PDO and ENSO SST anomalies have large impacts on mean and variability of grassland plant production across the Great Plains.

Antarctic warming driven by internal Southern Ocean deep convection oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Torge; Pedro, Joel B.; Steig, Eric J.; Jochum, Markus; Park, Wonsun; Rasmussen, Sune O.

2016-04-01

Simulations with the free-running, complex coupled Kiel Climate Model (KCM) show that heat release associated with recurring Southern Ocean deep convection can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of 0.5-2.0 °C. We propose a mechanism connecting the intrinsic ocean variability with Antarctic warming that involves the following three steps: Preconditioning: heat supplied by the lower branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean, trapped by the Weddell Gyre circulation; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the preconditioned, thermally unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice-albedo feedbacks (on annual to decadal timescales) and slower Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to the convective heat release (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales), drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport towards Antarctica resulting in warming over the continent. Further, we discuss the potential role of this mechanism to explain climate variability observed in Antarctic ice-core records.

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also addressed.

Linking the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Global Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.

2016-02-01

This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

Regional dry-season climate changes due to three decades of Amazonian deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Jaya; Medvigy, David; Fueglistaler, Stephan; Walko, Robert

2017-02-01

More than 20% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades, triggering important hydroclimatic changes. Small-scale (a few kilometres) deforestation in the 1980s has caused thermally triggered atmospheric circulations that increase regional cloudiness and precipitation frequency. However, these circulations are predicted to diminish as deforestation increases. Here we use multi-decadal satellite records and numerical model simulations to show a regime shift in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing deforestation in Rondônia, Brazil. Compared with the 1980s, present-day deforested areas in downwind western Rondônia are found to be wetter than upwind eastern deforested areas during the local dry season. The resultant precipitation change in the two regions is approximately +/-25% of the deforested area mean. Meso-resolution simulations robustly reproduce this transition when forced with increasing deforestation alone, showing that large-scale climate variability plays a negligible role. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness reduction is found to play an essential role in the present-day dry-season hydroclimate. Our study illustrates the strong scale sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation and suggests that deforestation is sufficiently advanced to have caused a shift from a thermally to a dynamically driven hydroclimatic regime.

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2011-01-01

Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5-14 days or more. From a recent 20th century atmospheric reanalysis (1,2) winters with more frequent blocking persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability (AMV). Ocean circulation is forced by wind-stress curl and related air/sea heat exchange, and we find that their space-time structure is associated with dominant blocking patterns: weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat exchange contribute to the warm phase of AMV. Increased blocking activity extending from Greenland to British Isles is evident when winter blocking days of the cold years (1900-1929) are subtracted from those of the warm years (1939-1968).

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthlen, Denise L.

2011-01-01

Based on the 20th century atmospheric reanalysis, winters with more frequent blocking, in a band of blocked latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability. Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic, which involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5 days or more, influences fundamentally the ocean circulation and upper ocean properties by impacting wind patterns. Winters with clusters of more frequent blocking between Greenland and western Europe correspond to a warmer, more saline subpolar ocean. The correspondence between blocked westerly winds and warm ocean holds in recent decadal episodes (especially, 1996-2010). It also describes much longer-timescale Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV), including the extreme, pre-greenhouse-gas, northern warming of the 1930s-1960s. The space-time structure of the wind forcing associated with a blocked regime leads to weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat-exchange, both of which contribute to the warm phase of AMV.

Variations in the Relationship Between Precipitation and Tree Growth in the North-Central Rocky Mountains Identified Using a Tree-Ring Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wise, E.

2007-12-01

Much of the western United States is in the midst of a multi-year drought that has placed a renewed sense of urgency on water availability issues. The characterization of variability over relevant space and time scales has emerged as one of the top needs concerning the hydrological cycle, but understanding hydroclimatic variability at decadal and longer time scales has been limited by instrumental data that are both spatially and temporally inadequate. The reconstruction of moisture variables from tree-rings has been recognized as an important source of information on long-term water supply variability. Moisture variables of interest may include annual precipitation, snowpack, summer precipitation, and streamflow. Trees in closely co-located sites can vary widely in the signal they reflect, particularly in a region with the complex topography and hydroclimatic variability that is seen in the north-central Rocky Mountains. In this study, climatic and geospatial information was combined with tree-ring chronologies in order to better-understand factors determining variations in the response of tree growth to a particular precipitation signal. Resulting spatial variability in moisture seasonality and growth response provide insight into the region's moisture patterns and better characterization of the region's hydroclimatic variability.

Temporal Changes in Forest Contexts at Multiple Extents: Three Decades of Fragmentation in the Gran Chaco (1979-2010), Central Argentina.

PubMed

Frate, Ludovico; Acosta, Alicia T R; Cabido, Marcelo; Hoyos, Laura; Carranza, Maria Laura

2015-01-01

The context in which a forest exists strongly influences its function and sustainability. Unveiling the multi-scale nature of forest fragmentation context is crucial to understand how human activities affect the spatial patterns of forests across a range of scales. However, this issue remains almost unexplored in subtropical ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed temporal changes (1979-2010) in forest contexts in the Argentinean dry Chaco at multiple extents. We classified forests over the last three decades based on forest context amount (Pf) and structural connectivity (Pff), which were measured using a moving window approach fixed at eight different extents (from local, ~ 6 ha, to regional, ~ 8300 ha). Specific multi-scale forest context profiles (for the years 1979 and 2010) were defined by projecting Pf vs. Pff mean values and were compared across spatial extents. The distributions of Pf across scales were described by scalograms and their shapes over time were compared. The amount of agricultural land and rangelands across the scales were also analyzed. The dry Chaco has undergone an intensive process of fragmentation, resulting in a shift from landscapes dominated by forests with gaps of rangelands to landscapes where small forest patches are embedded in agricultural lands. Multi-scale fragmentation analysis depicted landscapes in which local exploitation, which perforates forest cover, occurs alongside extensive forest clearings, reducing forests to small and isolated patches surrounded by agricultural lands. In addition, the temporal diminution of Pf's variability along with the increment of the mean slope of the Pf 's scalograms, indicate a simplification of the spatial pattern of forest over time. The observed changes have most likely been the result of the interplay between human activities and environmental constraints, which have shaped the spatial patterns of forests across scales. Based on our results, strategies for the conservation and sustainable management of the dry Chaco should take into account both the context of each habitat location and the scales over which a forest pattern might be preserved, altered or restored.

Temporal Changes in Forest Contexts at Multiple Extents: Three Decades of Fragmentation in the Gran Chaco (1979-2010), Central Argentina

PubMed Central

Frate, Ludovico; Acosta, Alicia T. R.; Cabido, Marcelo; Hoyos, Laura; Carranza, Maria Laura

2015-01-01

The context in which a forest exists strongly influences its function and sustainability. Unveiling the multi-scale nature of forest fragmentation context is crucial to understand how human activities affect the spatial patterns of forests across a range of scales. However, this issue remains almost unexplored in subtropical ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed temporal changes (1979–2010) in forest contexts in the Argentinean dry Chaco at multiple extents. We classified forests over the last three decades based on forest context amount (P f) and structural connectivity (P ff), which were measured using a moving window approach fixed at eight different extents (from local, ~ 6 ha, to regional, ~ 8300 ha). Specific multi-scale forest context profiles (for the years 1979 and 2010) were defined by projecting P f vs. P ff mean values and were compared across spatial extents. The distributions of P f across scales were described by scalograms and their shapes over time were compared. The amount of agricultural land and rangelands across the scales were also analyzed. The dry Chaco has undergone an intensive process of fragmentation, resulting in a shift from landscapes dominated by forests with gaps of rangelands to landscapes where small forest patches are embedded in agricultural lands. Multi-scale fragmentation analysis depicted landscapes in which local exploitation, which perforates forest cover, occurs alongside extensive forest clearings, reducing forests to small and isolated patches surrounded by agricultural lands. In addition, the temporal diminution of P f’s variability along with the increment of the mean slope of the P f ‘s scalograms, indicate a simplification of the spatial pattern of forest over time. The observed changes have most likely been the result of the interplay between human activities and environmental constraints, which have shaped the spatial patterns of forests across scales. Based on our results, strategies for the conservation and sustainable management of the dry Chaco should take into account both the context of each habitat location and the scales over which a forest pattern might be preserved, altered or restored. PMID:26630387

Oscillations and trends of river discharge in the southern Central Andes and linkages with climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.

2017-12-01

This study analyzes the discharge variability of small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) in the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) was applied to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends, based on four time series of monthly-normalized discharge anomaly between 1940 and 2015. Statistically significant trends reveal increasing discharge during the past decades and document an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be best described by five quasi-periodic statistically significant oscillatory modes, with mean periods varying from 1 to ∼20 y. Moreover, we show that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (∼20 y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (∼2-5 y). Previous studies highlighted a rapid increase in discharge in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. Our results suggest that the rapid discharge increase in the NW Argentine Andes coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge, which is mainly linked to a negative to positive transition of the PDO phase and TSA variability associated with a long-term increasing trend. We therefore suggest that variations in discharge in this region are largely driven by both natural variability and the effects of global climate change. We furthermore posit that the links between atmospheric and hydrologic processes result from a combination of forcings that operate on different spatiotemporal scales.

A Decade of High-Resolution Arctic Sea Ice Measurements from Airborne Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, K.; Farrell, S. L.; Connor, L. N.; Jackson, C.; Richter-Menge, J.

2017-12-01

Satellite altimeters carried on board ERS-1,-2, EnviSat, ICESat, CryoSat-2, AltiKa and Sentinel-3 have transformed our ability to map the thickness and volume of the polar sea ice cover, on seasonal and decadal time-scales. The era of polar satellite altimetry has coincided with a rapid decline of the Arctic ice cover, which has thinned, and transitioned from a predominantly multi-year to first-year ice cover. In conjunction with basin-scale satellite altimeter observations, airborne surveys of the Arctic Ocean at the end of winter are now routine. These surveys have been targeted to monitor regions of rapid change, and are designed to obtain the full snow and ice thickness distribution, across a range of ice types. Sensors routinely deployed as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) campaigns include the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter, the frequency-modulated continuous-wave snow radar, and the Digital Mapping System (DMS). Airborne measurements yield high-resolution data products and thus present a unique opportunity to assess the quality and characteristics of the satellite observations. We present a suite of sea ice data products that describe the snow depth and thickness of the Arctic ice cover during the last decade. Fields were derived from OIB measurements collected between 2009-2017, and from reprocessed data collected during ad-hoc sea ice campaigns prior to OIB. Our bespoke algorithms are designed to accommodate the heterogeneous sea ice surface topography, that varies at short spatial scales. We assess regional and inter-annual variability in the sea ice thickness distribution. Results are compared to satellite-derived ice thickness fields to highlight the sensitivities of satellite footprints to the tails of the thickness distribution. We also show changes in the dynamic forcing shaping the ice pack over the last eight years through an analysis of pressure-ridge sail-height distributions and surface roughness conditions. Variability is linked to the geographic location and extent of multi-year sea ice. Finally, we describe accessing our high-resolution data products at the NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry.

A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, Andrew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico

2018-01-01

We present the application of a parametric stochastic weather generator within a nonstationary context, enabling simulations of weather sequences conditioned on interannual and multi-decadal trends. The generalized linear model framework of the weather generator allows any number of covariates to be included, such as large-scale climate indices, local climate information, seasonal precipitation and temperature, among others. Here we focus on the Salado A basin of the Argentine Pampas as a case study, but the methodology is portable to any region. We include domain-averaged (e.g., areal) seasonal total precipitation and mean maximum and minimum temperatures as covariates for conditional simulation. Areal covariates are motivated by a principal component analysis that indicates the seasonal spatial average is the dominant mode of variability across the domain. We find this modification to be effective in capturing the nonstationarity prevalent in interseasonal precipitation and temperature data. We further illustrate the ability of this weather generator to act as a spatiotemporal downscaler of seasonal forecasts and multidecadal projections, both of which are generally of coarse resolution.

Exploring the Links in Monthly to Decadal Variability of the Atmospheric Water Balance Over the Wettest Regions in ERA-20C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, M.

2017-10-01

Monthly-to-decadal variability of the regional precipitation over Intertropical Convergence Zone and north-Atlantic and north-Pacific storm tracks was investigated using ERA-20C reanalysis. Satellite-based precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) climatological patterns were well reproduced by ERA-20C. Regional P and E monthly time series displayed 20% differences, but these decreased rapidly with time scale ( 10% at yearly time scales). Spectral analysis showed good scale-by-scale statistical agreement between ERA-20C and observations. Using ERA-Interim showed no improvement despite the much wider range of information assimilated (including satellites). Remarkably high Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis coefficients (ρDCCA > 0.7 and often ρDCCA > 0.9) revealed tight links between the nonperiodic variability of P, moisture divergence (DIV), and pressure velocity (ω) at monthly-to-decadal time scales over all the wet regions. In contrast, ρDCCA was essentially nonsignificant between nonperiodic P and E or sea surface temperature (SST). Thus, the nonperiodic monthly-to-decadal variability of precipitation in these regions is almost fully controlled by dynamics and not by local E or SST (suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron relation). Analysis of regional nonperiodic standard deviations and power spectra (and respective spectral exponents, β) provided further robustness to this conclusion. Finally, clear transitions in β for P, DIV, and ω between tropical and storm track regions were found. The latter is dominated by transient storms, with energy accumulation at synoptic scales and β < 0.1 at monthly-to-decadal time scales, implying that variability and information creation decrease rapidly with time scale. Larger β values (0.2 to 0.4) were found in the tropics, implying longer-range autocorrelations and slower decreasing variability and information creation with time scale, consistent with the important forcing from internal modes of variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

2015-09-15

Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Wong, Takmeng; Allan, Richard; Slingo, Anthony; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Soden, Brian J.; Gordon, C. T.; Miller, Alvin J.; Yang, Shi-Keng; Randall, David R.;

Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

2017-12-01

There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 for which the probability to remain under 1.5 K is 48%. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-like futures overshoot with very high probability. This underscores that over the next century, the state of the environment will be strongly influenced by past, present and future economical policies.

Dissecting the multi-scale spatial relationship of earthworm assemblages with soil environmental variability.

PubMed

Jiménez, Juan J; Decaëns, Thibaud; Lavelle, Patrick; Rossi, Jean-Pierre

2014-12-05

Studying the drivers and determinants of species, population and community spatial patterns is central to ecology. The observed structure of community assemblages is the result of deterministic abiotic (environmental constraints) and biotic factors (positive and negative species interactions), as well as stochastic colonization events (historical contingency). We analyzed the role of multi-scale spatial component of soil environmental variability in structuring earthworm assemblages in a gallery forest from the Colombian "Llanos". We aimed to disentangle the spatial scales at which species assemblages are structured and determine whether these scales matched those expressed by soil environmental variables. We also tested the hypothesis of the "single tree effect" by exploring the spatial relationships between root-related variables and soil nutrient and physical variables in structuring earthworm assemblages. Multivariate ordination techniques and spatially explicit tools were used, namely cross-correlograms, Principal Coordinates of Neighbor Matrices (PCNM) and variation partitioning analyses. The relationship between the spatial organization of earthworm assemblages and soil environmental parameters revealed explicitly multi-scale responses. The soil environmental variables that explained nested population structures across the multi-spatial scale gradient differed for earthworms and assemblages at the very-fine- (<10 m) to medium-scale (10-20 m). The root traits were correlated with areas of high soil nutrient contents at a depth of 0-5 cm. Information on the scales of PCNM variables was obtained using variogram modeling. Based on the size of the plot, the PCNM variables were arbitrarily allocated to medium (>30 m), fine (10-20 m) and very fine scales (<10 m). Variation partitioning analysis revealed that the soil environmental variability explained from less than 1% to as much as 48% of the observed earthworm spatial variation. A large proportion of the spatial variation did not depend on the soil environmental variability for certain species. This finding could indicate the influence of contagious biotic interactions, stochastic factors, or unmeasured relevant soil environmental variables.

Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale Cloud Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.

1998-01-01

The atmospheric circulation and its interaction with the oceanic circulation involve non-linear and non-local exchanges of energy and water over a very large range of space and time scales. These exchanges are revealed, in part, by the related variations of clouds, which occur on a similar range of scales as the atmospheric motions that produce them. Collection of comprehensive measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, clouds and surface allows for diagnosis of some of these exchanges. The use of a multi-satellite-network approach by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) comes closest to providing complete coverage of the relevant range space and time scales over which the clouds, atmosphere and ocean vary. A nearly 15-yr dataset is now available that covers the range from 3 hr and 30 km to decade and planetary. This paper considers three topics: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and how they may influence radiation-cloud interactions, and (2) cloud variations at "moderate" scales and how they may cause natural climate variability, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and how they affect the climate. The emphasis in this discussion is on the more mature subject of cloud-radiation interactions. There is now a need to begin similar detailed diagnostic studies of water exchange processes.

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biondi, Franco; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2001-01-01

Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the twentieth century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California extends the instrumental record and reveals decadal-scale variability back to 1661. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability that provides a preliminary view of multiannual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late l700s to mid-1800s. A comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947.

The Humboldt Current System: Ecosystem components and processes, fisheries, and sediment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montecino, Vivian; Lange, Carina B.

2009-12-01

In the Humboldt Current System (HCS), biological and non-biological components, ecosystem processes, and fisheries are known to be affected by multi-decadal, inter-annual, annual, and intra-seasonal scales. The interplay between atmospheric variability, the poleward undercurrent, the shallow oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), and the fertilizing effect of coastal upwelling and overall high primary production rates drive bio-physical interactions, the carbon biomass, and fluxes of gases and particulate and dissolved matter through the water column. Coastal upwelling (permanent and seasonally modulated off Peru and northern Chile, and markedly seasonal between 30°S and 40°S) is the key process responsible for the high biological productivity in the HCS. At present, the western coast of South America produces more fish per unit area than any other region in the world ocean (i.e. ∼7.5 × 10 6 t of anchoveta were landed in 2007). Climate changes on different temporal scales lead to alterations in the distribution ranges of anchoveta and sardine populations and shifts in their dominance throughout the HCS. The factors affecting the coastal marine ecosystem that reverberate in the fisheries are crucial from a social perspective, since the economic consequences of mismanagement can be severe. Fish remains are often well-preserved in sediment settings under the hypoxic conditions of the OMZ off Peru and Chile, and reveal multi-decadal variability and centennial-scale changes in fish populations. Sediment studies from the Chilean continental margin encompassing the last 20,000 years of deposition reveal changes in sub-surface conditions in the HCS during deglaciation, interpreted to include: a major reorganization of the OMZ; a deglacial increase in denitrification decoupled from local marine productivity; and higher deglacial and Holocene paleoproductivities compared to the Last Glacial Maximum in central-south Chile (35-37°S) while this scheme is reversed for north-central Chile. Multi-scale, interdisciplinary approaches and focused research groups are needed to understand air-sea interactions, plankton dynamics, biomass removal by fisheries, and the transformation and fluxes of matter across the different HCS components. In this paper, we present a multidisciplinary synthesis of the HCS that covers its physics, atmosphere, primary and secondary production, medium and high trophic levels, fisheries including management aspects, and relevant sedimentary studies.

Using synchronization in multi-model ensembles to improve prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiemstra, P.; Selten, F.

2012-04-01

In recent decades, many climate models have been developed to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth's climate system. Although these models are all based on the same basic physical principles, they still show different behavior. This is for example caused by the choice of how to parametrize sub-grid scale processes. One method to combine these imperfect models, is to run a multi-model ensemble. The models are given identical initial conditions and are integrated forward in time. A multi-model estimate can for example be a weighted mean of the ensemble members. We propose to go a step further, and try to obtain synchronization between the imperfect models by connecting the multi-model ensemble, and exchanging information. The combined multi-model ensemble is also known as a supermodel. The supermodel has learned from observations how to optimally exchange information between the ensemble members. In this study we focused on the density and formulation of the onnections within the supermodel. The main question was whether we could obtain syn-chronization between two climate models when connecting only a subset of their state spaces. Limiting the connected subspace has two advantages: 1) it limits the transfer of data (bytes) between the ensemble, which can be a limiting factor in large scale climate models, and 2) learning the optimal connection strategy from observations is easier. To answer the research question, we connected two identical quasi-geostrohic (QG) atmospheric models to each other, where the model have different initial conditions. The QG model is a qualitatively realistic simulation of the winter flow on the Northern hemisphere, has three layers and uses a spectral imple-mentation. We connected the models in the original spherical harmonical state space, and in linear combinations of these spherical harmonics, i.e. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We show that when connecting through spherical harmonics, we only need to connect 28% of the state variables to obtain synchronization. In addition, when connecting through EOFs, we can reduce this percentage even more to 12%. This reduction is caused by the more efficient description of the model state variables when using EOFs. The connected state variables center around the medium scale structures in the model. Small and large scale structures need not be connected in order to obtain synchronization. This could be related to the baroclinic instabilities in the QG model which are located in the medium scale structures of the model. The baroclinic instabilities are the main source of divergence between the two connected models.

Biological and climate controls on North Atlantic marine carbon dynamics over the last millennium: Insights from an absolutely-dated shell based record from the North Icelandic Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, I. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Richardson, C.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Butler, P. G.

2017-12-01

Given the rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO2) over the industrial era there is a pressing need to construct longterm records of natural carbon cycling prior to this perturbation and to develop a more robust understanding of the role the oceans play in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon. Here we reconstruct the historical biological and climatic controls on the carbon isotopic (δ13C-shell) composition of the North Icelandic shelf waters over the last millennium derived from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica. Variability in the annually resolved δ13C-shell record is dominated by multi-decadal variability with a negative trend (-0.003±0.002‰yr-1) over the industrial era (1800-2000). This trend is consistent with the marine Suess effect brought about by the sequestration of isotopically light carbon (δ13C of CO2) derived from the burning of fossil fuels. Comparison of the δ13C-shell record with contemporary proxy archives, over the last millennium, and instrumental data over the 20th century, suggests that primary productivity and climate conditions over the sub-polar North Atlantic region played a vital role in driving inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variability in the δ13C-shell record. Our results highlight that relative shifts in the proportion of sub-polar mode waters and Arctic intermediate waters entrained onto the North Icelandic shelf, coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO), are the likely physical mechanisms that drive natural variations in seawater δ13C variability on the North Icelandic shelf.

Caribbean coral growth influenced by anthropogenic aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Cox, Peter M.; Economou, Theo; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Carilli, Jessica; Guzman, Hector M.

2013-05-01

Coral growth rates are highly dependent on environmental variables such as sea surface temperature and solar irradiance. Multi-decadal variability in coral growth rates has been documented throughout the Caribbean over the past 150-200 years, and linked to variations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Multi-decadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, in turn, has been linked to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Here, we examine the drivers of changes in coral growth rates in the western Caribbean between 1880 and 2000, using previously published coral growth chronologies from two sites in the region, and a numerical model. Changes in coral growth rates over this period coincided with variations in sea surface temperature and incoming short-wave radiation. Our model simulations show that variations in the concentration of anthropogenic aerosols caused variations in sea surface temperature and incoming radiation in the second half of the twentieth century. Before this, variations in volcanic aerosols may have played a more important role. With the exception of extreme mass bleaching events, we suggest that neither climate change from greenhouse-gas emissions nor ocean acidification is necessarily the driver of multi-decadal variations in growth rates at some Caribbean locations. Rather, the cause may be regional climate change due to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Hydroclimate variability in NE Brazil over the last 2K

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giselle, Utida; Ioanna, Bouloubassi; Francisco, Cruz; Enno, Schefuβ; Abdel, Sifeddine; Vincent, Klein; Johan, Etourneau; Renata, Zocatelli; André, Zular; Hai, Cheng; Laurence, Edwards R.

2016-04-01

Precipitation associated with the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) supplies more than 70% of tropical South America's annual precipitation and is fundamental in sustaining the water regime for regional socioeconomic activities. Motivated by the fact that the greatest uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation trends lies in the tropics, and particularly in South America, a number of recent proxy and modeling studies have aimed at understanding SASM spatiotemporal variability regarding its dynamics, driving mechanisms and teleconnections. Exact reconstructions of past meridional ITCZ displacements (timing, sign, amplitude), however, are currently lacking, mainly because of the paucity of suited high-resolution archives. This restricts our ability to assess regional rainfall variability at decadal to centennial timescales, especially in the hydroclimatic-sensitive semi-arid Nordeste, needed to understand the interactions between SASM and ITCZ and to evaluate the impact of Pacific-Atlantic climate interactions on the regional rainfall variability at decadal/multi-decadal scale. Here we present two new and complementary high-resolution records of past precipitation over the last 2K from the north area of Nordeste, an area ideally located to track fluctuations in the southernmost edge of ITCZ movement. We present a new δO18 record from a local speleothem and combine it, for the first time, with δD analyses of wax lipids in well-dated sediments from a nearby lake. The two independent records show a remarkable similarity and are characterized by strong decadal to multidecadal variability as well as century-scale changes. The period 250-450 yrs CE appears as the wettest phase over the last 2K, while the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by extremely dry conditions. Following the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is a relatively wetter phase. The data document fluctuations of southern meridional ITCZ movements during the last millennium that compare well with available records of fluctuations in northern ITCZ extension (Cariaco Basin). Comparisons to proxy records from tropical South America regions affected by the SASM and the South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) allow evaluating the SAMS/SACZ-ITCZ linkages. Furthermore, the data are discussed in terms of the role of the Atlantic and Pacific modes of variability in modulating regional hydroclimate.

Decadal Variations in Eastern Canada's Taiga Wood Biomass Production Forced by Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions.

PubMed

Boucher, Etienne; Nicault, Antoine; Arseneault, Dominique; Bégin, Yves; Karami, Mehdi Pasha

2017-05-26

Across Eastern Canada (EC), taiga forests represent an important carbon reservoir, but the extent to which climate variability affects this ecosystem over decades remains uncertain. Here, we analyze an extensive network of black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.) ring width and wood density measurements and provide new evidence that wood biomass production is influenced by large-scale, internal ocean-atmosphere processes. We show that while black spruce wood biomass production is primarily governed by growing season temperatures, the Atlantic ocean conveys heat from the subtropics and influences the decadal persistence in taiga forests productivity. Indeed, we argue that 20-30 years periodicities in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as part of the the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) directly influence heat transfers to adjacent lands. Winter atmospheric conditions associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might also impact EC's taiga forests, albeit indirectly, through its effect on SSTs and sea ice conditions in surrounding seas. Our work emphasizes that taiga forests would benefit from the combined effects of a warmer atmosphere and stronger ocean-to-land heat transfers, whereas a weakening of these transfers could cancel out, for decades or longer, the positive effects of climate change on Eastern Canada's largest ecosystem.

The bivalve Glycymeris longior as an environmental archive for the Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Socorro Doldan, María; Morsan, Enrique Mario; Giménez, Lucas; Zaidman, Paula Cecilia

2017-04-01

Southern Hemisphere lacks of suitable high-resolution long datasets for the marine environment. This is translated in poor understanding of climate dynamics and processes at regional and continental-scale. We assessed the potential of Glycymeris longior as an environmental indicator for the mid-latitudes of South Atlantic by applying sclerochronological techniques on sample sets collected from San Matías Gulf, Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic. We present a reconstruction of marine environmental variability of SMG for the period 1890-2016, covering 125 years. The reconstruction is based on the growth increment series for the first absolutely-dated annually-resolved multi-decadal G. longior bivalve on Sothern Atlantic. Shells were collected in 1918, 1933, 1945, 1983, 1989, 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Sample depth varies between collection years. Age of the individuals was estimated from the hinge region of the shell. G. longior forms an annual narrow growth line. Maximal longevity was 40 years old. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths. Correlations between the growth increment indices and regional temperature series (sea surface temperatures, continental temperatures) and other proxies were made. Preliminary results indicate that G.longior sclerochronologies, combined with low-frequency proxies can facilitate reconstructions of oceanographic variability. We discuss multi-decadal climate variability. Given the ability to generate annually-resolved chronologies G. longior is likely to be used as a climate recorder in southern South America. Hence, G. longior shells from Pleistocene marine deposits from Patagonia, Argentina, have a considerable potential to contain information of past climate for mid-latitudes of South Atlantic.

Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

2016-04-01

Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the large scale pattern, can provide related compact and meaningful information. In addition, the availability for the area of interest of a 20-year long dataset of directional spectra (in frequency and direction) offers an independent, but theoretically corresponding and significantly long dataset, allowing to penetrate the wave problem through different perspectives. In particular, we investigate the contribution of the individual wave systems that modulate the variability of waves in the Adriatic Sea. A characterization of wave conditions based on wave spectra in fact brings out a more detailed description of the different wave regimes, their associated meteorological conditions and their variation in time and geographical space.

Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

Coralline algal Barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability

PubMed Central

Hetzinger, S.; Halfar, J.; Zack, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Kunz, B. E.; Jacob, D. E.; Adey, W. H.

2013-01-01

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes. PMID:23636135

Coralline algal barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability.

PubMed

Hetzinger, S; Halfar, J; Zack, T; Mecking, J V; Kunz, B E; Jacob, D E; Adey, W H

2013-01-01

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes.

On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-03-01

Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills.

Multi-decadal to centennial scale variations in sea surface temperature off southeast Korea over the last 2000 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. E.; Park, W.; Bae, S. W.; Nam, S. I.

2016-12-01

We have reconstructed variations in sea surface temperature (SST) for the last 2000 yr by using the alkenone unsaturation index of marine sediments of cores TY2010 PC4 and ARA/ES 03-01 GC01 recovered from the southwestern part of the East Sea. The core site is chracterized by very high sedimentation rate so that a new high-resolution continuous SST record can be reconstructed with an average temporal resolution of 2-7 years. The core top alkenone temperature (20.5°C) is higher than the annual averaged in situ SST (18 °C) and it corresponds to those of summer to autumn. During the last 2000 yr, the alkenone temperatures exhibited fluctuations on multi-decadal to centennial time scales. The temperatures were relatively warm fluctuating between 19.6°C and 21°C on centennial time scale during the period of AD 0- 1200. There were two evident cold periods: AD 1200-1400 and AD 1600-1800. The lowest temperature (approximately 18°C) occurred at AD 1290 and AD 1650. The temperatures increased toward 20 centry, which is consistent with anthropogenic global warming. Results of singular spectrum analysis of the last 2000 yr SST record suggest that there is characteristic periodicity of 100 yr and 160 yr and 50-60 yr, which can be natural variability of climate system. In addition, a comparison of the SST record with global volcanic forcing data shows that volcanic events also can be correlated to the distinct cooling events.

Multidecadal Variability in Surface Albedo Feedback Across CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Adam; Flanner, Mark; Perket, Justin

2018-02-01

Previous studies quantify surface albedo feedback (SAF) in climate change, but few assess its variability on decadal time scales. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble data set, we calculate time evolving SAF in multiple decades from surface albedo and temperature linear regressions. Results are meaningful when temperature change exceeds 0.5 K. Decadal-scale SAF is strongly correlated with century-scale SAF during the 21st century. Throughout the 21st century, multimodel ensemble mean SAF increases from 0.37 to 0.42 W m-2 K-1. These results suggest that models' mean decadal-scale SAFs are good estimates of their century-scale SAFs if there is at least 0.5 K temperature change. Persistent SAF into the late 21st century indicates ongoing capacity for Arctic albedo decline despite there being less sea ice. If the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble results are representative of the Earth, we cannot expect decreasing Arctic sea ice extent to suppress SAF in the 21st century.

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of season date across the sample landscapes and the variability in the corresponding NDVI values at that date showed the strongest correlation with the biodiversity indices; 3) The significance of the models improved when using 3×3km site extent both for MODIS and Landsat based models due most likely to the larger sample size over 3x3km.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction over 9 Millennia from a Composite 14C and 10Be Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Krivova, N.; Kovaltsov, G.; Solanki, S. K.

2017-12-01

The Sun is the main external energy source to the Earth and thus the knowledge of solar variability on different time scales is important for understanding the solar influence on the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. The overall energy input and its spectral distribution are described by the total (TSI) and spectral (SSI) solar irradiance, respectively. Direct measurements of the solar irradiance provide information on solar variability on the decadal and shorter time scales, while the sunspot number record covers four centuries. On yet longer time scales only indirect proxies can be used, such as the concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. These isotopes are produced in the terrestrial atmosphere by impinging cosmic rays, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. Therefore the isotope data retrieved from various natural archives around the globe show a very high degree of similarity reflecting changes in the solar activity. Nevertheless, significant short-term deviations can be observed due to the different geochemical production processes and local climatic conditions. We will present the newest TSI/SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years based on a new consistent composite multi-isotope proxy series. The solar irradiance reconstruction reveals the global and robust pattern of solar variability in the past.

Regional and climate forcing on forage fish and apex predators in the California Current: new insights from a fully coupled ecosystem model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Rose, K.; Curchitser, E. N.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Costa, D. P.; Hedstrom, K.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled ecosystem model is used to describe the impact of regional and climate variability on changes in abundance and distribution of forage fish and apex predators in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel (NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for two forage fish species (sardine and anchovy) and one apex predator (California sea lion). Sardine and anchovy are specifically included in the model as they exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances, and are commonly found in the diet of California sea lions. Output from the model demonstrates how regional-scale (i.e., upwelling intensity) and basin-scale (i.e., PDO and ENSO signals) physical processes control species distributions and predator-prey interactions on interannual time scales. The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions leads to the formation of seasonal hotspots where prey and predator spatially overlap. While specifically focused on sardine, anchovy and sea lions, the modeling framework presented here can provide new insights into the physical and biological mechanisms controlling trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only, the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting time scale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus also minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, in southwestern and southeastern Europe summer trends in mean precipitation emerge already within the next decades. Yet across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend in general emerges earlier. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

PubMed

Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

2016-04-01

Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time-scales of the European surface air temperature variability: The role of the 7-8 year cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067325

Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to increasing evaporation and transpiration processes. Second, annual variability in streamflow is not statistically correlated with annual temperature variability but appears to be highly correlated with annual precipitation variability. This implies that on a year-to-year basis, changes in streamflow volumes are directly affected by precipitation and not temperature. Future development of a predictive streamflow model will need to take into consideration these two processes to obtain accurate results. In order to extend predictive skill to the multi-year scale relationships between precipitation, temperature and persistent climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Oscillation will need to be examined.

Multi-level multi-task learning for modeling cross-scale interactions in nested geospatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, Shuai; Zhou, Jiayu; Tan, Pang-Ning; Fergus, Emi; Wagner, Tyler; Sorrano, Patricia

2017-01-01

Predictive modeling of nested geospatial data is a challenging problem as the models must take into account potential interactions among variables defined at different spatial scales. These cross-scale interactions, as they are commonly known, are particularly important to understand relationships among ecological properties at macroscales. In this paper, we present a novel, multi-level multi-task learning framework for modeling nested geospatial data in the lake ecology domain. Specifically, we consider region-specific models to predict lake water quality from multi-scaled factors. Our framework enables distinct models to be developed for each region using both its local and regional information. The framework also allows information to be shared among the region-specific models through their common set of latent factors. Such information sharing helps to create more robust models especially for regions with limited or no training data. In addition, the framework can automatically determine cross-scale interactions between the regional variables and the local variables that are nested within them. Our experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms all the baseline methods in at least 64% of the regions for 3 out of 4 lake water quality datasets evaluated in this study. Furthermore, the latent factors can be clustered to obtain a new set of regions that is more aligned with the response variables than the original regions that were defined a priori from the ecology domain.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-03-01

A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only; the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby, the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting timescale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus, minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are also given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, and in southwestern and southeastern Europe, summer trends in mean precipitation already emerge within the next few decades. However, across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend, in general, emerges earlier.

Multi-Scale Computational Models for Electrical Brain Stimulation

PubMed Central

Seo, Hyeon; Jun, Sung C.

2017-01-01

Electrical brain stimulation (EBS) is an appealing method to treat neurological disorders. To achieve optimal stimulation effects and a better understanding of the underlying brain mechanisms, neuroscientists have proposed computational modeling studies for a decade. Recently, multi-scale models that combine a volume conductor head model and multi-compartmental models of cortical neurons have been developed to predict stimulation effects on the macroscopic and microscopic levels more precisely. As the need for better computational models continues to increase, we overview here recent multi-scale modeling studies; we focused on approaches that coupled a simplified or high-resolution volume conductor head model and multi-compartmental models of cortical neurons, and constructed realistic fiber models using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Further implications for achieving better precision in estimating cellular responses are discussed. PMID:29123476

Asymmetry of agricultural water consumption in arid regions during alternating decadal scale wet and dry periods: explanation using behavioral economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fuqiang

2017-04-01

Increase of human water consumption for agriculture and consequent degradation of the ecological environment is a common feature in many arid regions. Understanding the driving mechanisms behind this phenomenon is of critical importance for regional sustainable development. In this study, analyses of temporal patterns of human water consumption are carried out in three hyper-arid inland basins, i.e., Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia, and the Tarim and Heihe River Basins in Northwestern China. Multi-decadal time series of hydrological and human consumption data are divided into decadal sequences of wet and dry years. During the wet phases, the greater water availability inspires economic expansion and human water consumption experiences growth at a rate faster than that of incoming water. During the dry phases, however, the expanded economy (e.g., irrigation land expansion in an agriculture-based economy) has been managed to sustain or even to increase production by over-exploitation of water with sophisticated technologies. Inability to reduce human water consumption at a rate commensurate with the decrease of incoming water supply leads to serious ecosystem degradation. This asymmetric human water consumption response of society to decadal scale hydrologic variability can be explained in terms of prospect theory drawn from behavioral economics, which states that people tend to be risk averse when facing gains and show risk preference when facing losses. In the three socio-hydrological case studies, direct economic gain/loss has relatively low value but high certainty when compared to indirect economic loss/gain (such as environmental or sustainability loss/gain), which has high value but with high uncertainty. According to prospect theory, people tend to gain direct economic benefits at the expense of environmental degradation and at the risk of system collapse. The outcomes of this study have major implications for water resources management at long time scales, and in particular calls for increased understanding of human-water system interactions and feedbacks at the decadal time scale.

Tree Rings Show Recent High Summer-Autumn Precipitation in Northwest Australia Is Unprecedented within the Last Two Centuries

PubMed Central

O'Donnell, Alison J.; Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Page, Gerald F. M.; Grierson, Pauline F.

2015-01-01

An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec–May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar–May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995–2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. PMID:26039148

Tree Rings Show Recent High Summer-Autumn Precipitation in Northwest Australia Is Unprecedented within the Last Two Centuries.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Alison J; Cook, Edward R; Palmer, Jonathan G; Turney, Chris S M; Page, Gerald F M; Grierson, Pauline F

2015-01-01

An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec-May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910-2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar-May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910-2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995-2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode.

Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.

PubMed

Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

2016-01-01

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.

Creating Near-Term Climate Scenarios for AgMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, L.; Greene, A. M.; Baethgen, W.

2012-12-01

For the next assessment report of the IPCC (AR5), attention is being given to development of climate information that is appropriate for adaptation, such as decadal-scale and near-term predictions intended to capture the combined effects of natural climate variability and the emerging climate change signal. While the science and practice evolve for the production and use of dynamic decadal prediction, information relevant to agricultural decision-makers can be gained from analysis of past decadal-scale trends and variability. Statistical approaches that mimic the characteristics of observed year-to-year variability can indicate the range of possibilities and their likelihood. In this talk we present work towards development of near-term climate scenarios, which are needed to engage decision-makers and stakeholders in the regions in current decision-making. The work includes analyses of decadal-scale variability and trends in the AgMIP regions, and statistical approaches that capture year-to-year variability and the associated persistence of wet and dry years. We will outline the general methodology and some of the specific considerations in the regional application of the methodology for different AgMIP regions, such those for Western Africa versus southern Africa. We will also show some examples of quality checks and informational summaries of the generated data, including (1) metrics of information quality such as probabilistic reliability for a suite of relevant climate variables and indices important for agriculture; (2) quality checks relative to the use of this climate data in crop models; and, (3) summary statistics (e.g., for 5-10-year periods or across given spatial scales).

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to ...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess...

A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F.

2004-12-01

Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established.

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; ...

2016-01-01

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Predictionmore » (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.« less

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

PubMed

Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-11-13

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

2016-01-01

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana P.; Hodes, Jared L.; Arulraj, Malarvizhi

2017-10-01

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), wavelet, and wavelet coherence analysis of baseflow time-series from 126 streamgauges (record-length > 50 years; small and mid-size watersheds) in the US South Atlantic (USSA) region reveal three principal modes of space-time variability: (1) a region-wide dominant mode tied to annual precipitation that exhibits non-stationary decadal variability after the mid 1990s concurrent with the warming of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation); (2) two spatial modes, east and west of the Blue Ridge, exhibiting nonstationary seasonal to sub-decadal variability before and after 1990 attributed to complex nonlinear interactions between ENSO and AMO impacting precipitation and recharge; and (3) deep (decadal) and shallow (< 6 years) space-time modes of groundwater variability separating basins with high and low annual mean baseflow fraction (MBF) by physiographic region. The results explain the propagation of multiscale climate variability into the regional groundwater system through recharge modulated by topography, geomorphology, and geology to determine the spatial organization of baseflow variability at decadal (and longer) time-scales, that is, deep hydrologic drought. Further, these findings suggest potential for long-range predictability of hydrological drought in small and mid-size watersheds, where baseflow is a robust indicator of nonstationary yield capacity of the underlying groundwater basins. Predictive associations between climate mode indices and deep baseflow (e.g. persistent decreases of the decadal-scale components of baseflow during the cold phase of the AMO in the USSA) can be instrumental toward improving forecast lead-times and long-range mitigation of severe drought.

Using coral Ba/Ca records to investigate seasonal to decadal scale biogeochemical cycling in the surface and intermediate ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaVigne, M.; Cobb, K. M.; DeLong, K. L.; Freiberger, M. M.; Grottoli, A. G.; Hill, T. M.; Miller, H. R.; Nurhati, I. S.; Richey, J. N.; Serrato Marks, G.; Sherrell, R. M.

2016-12-01

Dissolved barium (BaSW), a bio-intermediate element, is linked to several biogeochemical processes such as the cycling and export of nutrients, organic carbon (Corg), and barite in surface and intermediate oceans. Dynamic BaSW cycling has been demonstrated in the water column on short timescales (days-weeks) while sedimentary records have documented geologic-scale changes in barite preservation driven by export production. Our understanding of how seasonal-decadal scale climate variability impacts these biogeochemical processes currently lacks robust records. Ba/Ca calibrations in surface and deep sea corals suggest barium is incorporated via cationic substitution in both aragonite and calcite. Here we demonstrate the utility of Ba/Ca for reconstructing biogeochemical variability using examples of surface and deep sea coral records. Century-long deep sea coral records from the California Current System (bamboo corals: 900-1500m) record interannual variations in Ba/Ca, likely reflecting changes in barite formation via bacterial Corg respiration or barite saturation state. A surface Porites coral Ba/Ca record from Christmas Island (central equatorial Pacific: 1978-1995) shows maxima during low productivity El Niño warm periods, suggesting that variations in BaSW are driven by biological removal via direct cellular uptake or indirectly via barite precipitation with the decomposition of large phytoplankton blooms at this location. Similarly, a sixteen-year long Siderastera siderea surface coral record from Dry Tortugas, FL (Gulf of Mexico: 1991-2007) shows seasonal Ba/Ca cycles that align with annual chlorophyll and δ13C. Taken together, these records demonstrate the linkages among Corg, nutrient cycling and BaSW in the surface and intermediate ocean on seasonal to decadal timescales. Multi-proxy paleoceanographic reconstructions including Ba/Ca have the potential to elucidate the mechanisms linking past climate, productivity, nutrients, and BaSW cycling in the past.

Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Alexander, Michael A.; Yamagata, Toshio; Yuan, Dongliang; Ishii, Masayoshi; Pegion, Philip; Zheng, Jian; Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Leben, Robert R.

2014-09-01

Previous studies have linked the rapid sea level rise (SLR) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) since the early 1990s to the Pacific decadal climate modes, notably the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the north Pacific or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) considering its basin wide signature. Here, the authors investigate the changing patterns of decadal (10-20 years) and multidecadal (>20 years) sea level variability (global mean SLR removed) in the Pacific associated with the IPO, by analyzing satellite and in situ observations, together with reconstructed and reanalysis products, and performing ocean and atmosphere model experiments. Robust intensification is detected for both decadal and multidecadal sea level variability in the WTP since the early 1990s. The IPO intensity, however, did not increase and thus cannot explain the faster SLR. The observed, accelerated WTP SLR results from the combined effects of Indian Ocean and WTP warming and central-eastern tropical Pacific cooling associated with the IPO cold transition. The warm Indian Ocean acts in concert with the warm WTP and cold central-eastern tropical Pacific to drive intensified easterlies and negative Ekman pumping velocity in western-central tropical Pacific, thereby enhancing the western tropical Pacific SLR. On decadal timescales, the intensified sea level variability since the late 1980s or early 1990s results from the "out of phase" relationship of sea surface temperature anomalies between the Indian and central-eastern tropical Pacific since 1985, which produces "in phase" effects on the WTP sea level variability.

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of WRF-CMAQ Ozone Simulations over the Contiguous United States (2017 MAC-MAQ Conference Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of ozone simulations performed with the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over the contiguous United States is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air ...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Predictionmore » (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.« less

Comparison of environmental forcings affecting suspended sediments variability in two macrotidal, highly-turbid estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Schmidt, Sabine; Sottolichio, Aldo

2017-11-01

The relative contribution of environmental forcing frequencies on turbidity variability is, for the first time, quantified at seasonal and multiannual time scales in tidal estuarine systems. With a decade of high-frequency, multi-site turbidity monitoring, the two nearby, macrotidal and highly-turbid Gironde and Loire estuaries (west France) are excellent natural laboratories for this purpose. Singular Spectrum Analyses, combined with Lomb-Scargle periodograms and Wavelet Transforms, were applied to the continuous multiannual turbidity time series. Frequencies of the main environmental factors affecting turbidity were identified: hydrological regime (high versus low river discharges), river flow variability, tidal range, tidal cycles, and turbulence. Their relative influences show similar patterns in both estuaries and depend on the estuarine region (lower or upper estuary) and the time scale (multiannual or seasonal). On the multiannual time scale, the relative contribution of tidal frequencies (tidal cycles and range) to turbidity variability decreases up-estuary from 68% to 47%, while the influence of river flow frequencies increases from 3% to 42%. On the seasonal time scale, the relative influence of forcings frequencies remains almost constant in the lower estuary, dominated by tidal frequencies (60% and 30% for tidal cycles and tidal range, respectively); in the upper reaches, it is variable depending on hydrological regime, even if tidal frequencies are responsible for up 50% of turbidity variance. These quantifications show the potential of combined spectral analyses to compare the behavior of suspended sediment in tidal estuaries throughout the world and to evaluate long-term changes in environmental forcings, especially in a context of global change. The relevance of this approach to compare nearby and overseas systems and to support management strategies is discussed (e.g., selection of effective operation frequencies/regions, prediction of the most affected regions by the implementation of operational management plans).

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Natural climate variability occurs over a wide range of time and space scales as a result of processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and their coupled interactions. Such internally generated climate fluctuations pose significant challenges for the identification of externally forced climate signals such as those driven by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This challenge is exacerbated for regional climate responses evaluated from short (< 50 years) data records. The limited duration of the observations also places strong constraints on how well the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability are known, especially on multi-decadal time scales. The observational constraints, in turn, pose challenges for evaluation of climate models, including their representation of internal variability and assessing the accuracy of their responses to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings. A promising new approach to climate model assessment is the advent of large (10-100 member) "initial-condition" ensembles of climate change simulations with individual models. Such ensembles allow for accurate determination, and straightforward separation, of externally forced climate signals and internal climate variability on regional scales. The range of climate trajectories in a given model ensemble results from the fact that each simulation represents a particular sequence of internal variability superimposed upon a common forced response. This makes clear that nature's single realization is only one of many that could have unfolded. This perspective leads to a rethinking of approaches to climate model evaluation that incorporate observational uncertainty due to limited sampling of internal variability. Illustrative examples across a range of well-known climate phenomena including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic climate change will be discussed.

A Skilful Marine Sclerochronological Network Based Reconstruction of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, D.; Hall, I. R.; Slater, S. M.; Scourse, J. D.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Garry, F. K.

2017-12-01

Spatial network analyses of precisely dated, and annually resolved, tree-ring proxy records have facilitated robust reconstructions of past atmospheric climate variability and the associated mechanisms and forcings that drive it. In contrast, a lack of similarly dated marine archives has constrained the use of such techniques in the marine realm, despite the potential for developing a more robust understanding of the role basin scale ocean dynamics play in the global climate system. Here we show that a spatial network of marine molluscan sclerochronological oxygen isotope (δ18Oshell) series spanning the North Atlantic region provides a skilful reconstruction of basin scale North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analyses demonstrate that the composite marine series (referred to as δ18Oproxy_PC1) is significantly sensitive to inter-annual variability in North Atlantic SSTs (R=-0.61 P<0.01) and surface air temperatures (SATs; R=-0.67, P<0.01) over the 20th century. Subpolar gyre (SPG) SSTs dominates variability in the δ18Oproxy_PC1 series at sub-centennial frequencies (R=-0.51, P<0.01). Comparison of the δ18Oproxy_PC1 series against variability in the strength of the European Slope Current and maximum North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation derived from numeric climate models (CMIP5), indicates that variability in the SPG region, associated with the strength of the surface currents of the North Atlantic, are playing a significant role in shaping the multi-decadal scale SST variability over the industrial era. These analyses demonstrate that spatial networks developed from sclerochronological archives can provide powerful baseline archives of past ocean variability that can facilitate the development of a quantitative understanding for the role the oceans play in the global climate systems and constraining uncertainties in numeric climate models.

Watershed-scale response of groundwater recharge to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation (Alberta, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Masaki; Farrow, Christopher R.

2014-12-01

Groundwater recharge sets a constraint on aquifer water balance in the context of water management. Historical data on groundwater and other relevant hydrological processes can be used to understand the effects of climatic variability on recharge, but such data sets are rare. The climate of the Canadian prairies is characterized by large inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation, which provides opportunities to examine the response of groundwater recharge to changes in meteorological conditions. A decadal study was conducted in a small (250 km2) prairie watershed in Alberta, Canada. Relative magnitude of annual recharge, indicated by water-level rise, was significantly correlated with a combination of growing-season precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which drives depression-focussed infiltration of meltwater. Annual precipitation was greater than vapour flux at an experimental site in some years and smaller in other years. On average precipitation minus vapour flux was 10 mm y-1, which was comparable to the magnitude of watershed-scale groundwater recharge estimated from creek baseflow. Average baseflow showed a distinct shift from a low value (4 mm y-1) in 1982-1995 to a high value (15 mm y-1) in 2003-2013, indicating the sensitivity of groundwater recharge to a decadal-scale variability of meteorological conditions.

Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2017-10-01

Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleoclimate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, B. J.; Thyer, M. A.; Kuczera, G. A.

2012-12-01

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. To characterize long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate and instrumental data describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yrs is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run-lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. Model selection techniques were used to determine a suitable stochastic model to simulate these run-lengths. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, was found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and was rejected in favor of a gamma distribution. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. Application to two high-quality rainfall sites close to water supply reservoirs found that mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry state was 15%-28% lower than the wet state. The model was able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multi-year accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations for the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive AR(1) model was unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Furthermore, analysis of the impact of the CIMSS framework on drought risk analysis found that short-term drought risks conditional on IPO/PDO state were considerably higher than the traditional AR(1) model.hort-term conditional water supply drought risks for the CIMSS and AR(1) models for the dry IPO-PDO scenario with a range of initial storage levels expressed as a proportion of the annual demand (yield).

Forced and Internal Multi-Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and their Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.

2017-12-01

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), a basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature warming or cooling pattern varying on decadal and longer time scales, is one of the most important climate variations in the Atlantic basin. The AMV has shown to be associated with significant climate impacts regionally and globally, from Atlantic hurricane activities, frequency and severity of droughts across North America, as well as rainfall anomalies across the African Sahel and northeast Brazil. Despite the important impacts of the AMV, its mechanisms are not completely understood. In particular, it is not clear how much of the historical Atlantic SST fluctuations were forced by anthropogenic sources such as greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling, versus driven internally by changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the Atlantic. Using climate models such as the NCAR large ensemble simulations, we were able to successfully separate the forced and internally generated North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies through a signal-to-noise maximizing Empirical Orthogonal Function (S/N EOF) analysis method. Two forced modes were identified with one representing a hemispherical symmetric mode and one asymmetric mode. The symmetric mode largely represents the greenhouse forced component while the asymmetric mode resembles the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. When statistically removing both of the forced modes, the residual multidecadal Atlantic SST variability shows a very similar structure as the AMV in the preindustrial simulation. The distinct climate impacts of each of these modes are also identified and the implications and challenges for decadal climate prediction will be discussed.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Interhemispheric Changes in Atlantic Ocean Heat Content and Their Link to Global Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Lee, S. K.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.

2015-12-01

This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. The effect of eddies on the NH (SH) poleward of 30° is opposite with heat flux divergence (convergence), which must be balanced by sinking (rising) motion, consistent with a poleward (equatorward) displacement of the jet stream and mean storm track. The mechanism described here could easily be interpreted for the case of strong SAMHT, with the reverse influence on the interhemispheric atmospheric circulation and monsoons. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

Large-Scale, Parallel, Multi-Sensor Data Fusion in the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Hua, H.

2012-12-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time "matchups" between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, assemble merged datasets, and compute fused products for further scientific and statistical analysis. To efficiently assemble such decade-scale datasets in a timely manner, we are utilizing Elastic Computing in the Cloud and parallel map/reduce-based algorithms. "SciReduce" is a Hadoop-like parallel analysis system, programmed in parallel python, that is designed from the ground up for Earth science. SciReduce executes inside VMWare images and scales to any number of nodes in the Cloud. Unlike Hadoop, in which simple tuples (keys & values) are passed between the map and reduce functions, SciReduce operates on bundles of named numeric arrays, which can be passed in memory or serialized to disk in netCDF4 or HDF5. Thus, SciReduce uses the native datatypes (geolocated grids, swaths, and points) that geo-scientists are familiar with. We are deploying within SciReduce a versatile set of python operators for data lookup, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and statistical analysis. All operators take in sets of geo-located arrays and generate more arrays. Large, multi-year satellite and model datasets are automatically "sharded" by time and space across a cluster of nodes so that years of data (millions of granules) can be compared or fused in a massively parallel way. Input variables (arrays) are pulled on-demand into the Cloud using OPeNDAP or webification URLs, thereby minimizing the size of the stored input and intermediate datasets. A typical map function might assemble and quality control AIRS Level-2 water vapor profiles for a year of data in parallel, then a reduce function would average the profiles in lat/lon bins (again, in parallel), and a final reduce would aggregate the climatology and write it to output files. We are using SciReduce to automate the production of multiple versions of a multi-year water vapor climatology (AIRS & MODIS), stratified by Cloudsat cloud classification, and compare it to models (ECMWF & MERRA reanalysis). We will present the architecture of SciReduce, describe the achieved "clock time" speedups in fusing huge datasets on our own nodes and in the Amazon Cloud, and discuss the Cloud cost tradeoffs for storage, compute, and data transfer.

Large-Scale, Parallel, Multi-Sensor Data Fusion in the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Manipon, G.; Hua, H.

2012-04-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time "matchups" between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, assemble merged datasets, and compute fused products for further scientific and statistical analysis. To efficiently assemble such decade-scale datasets in a timely manner, we are utilizing Elastic Computing in the Cloud and parallel map/reduce-based algorithms. "SciReduce" is a Hadoop-like parallel analysis system, programmed in parallel python, that is designed from the ground up for Earth science. SciReduce executes inside VMWare images and scales to any number of nodes in the Cloud. Unlike Hadoop, in which simple tuples (keys & values) are passed between the map and reduce functions, SciReduce operates on bundles of named numeric arrays, which can be passed in memory or serialized to disk in netCDF4 or HDF5. Thus, SciReduce uses the native datatypes (geolocated grids, swaths, and points) that geo-scientists are familiar with. We are deploying within SciReduce a versatile set of python operators for data lookup, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and statistical analysis. All operators take in sets of geo-arrays and generate more arrays. Large, multi-year satellite and model datasets are automatically "sharded" by time and space across a cluster of nodes so that years of data (millions of granules) can be compared or fused in a massively parallel way. Input variables (arrays) are pulled on-demand into the Cloud using OPeNDAP or webification URLs, thereby minimizing the size of the stored input and intermediate datasets. A typical map function might assemble and quality control AIRS Level-2 water vapor profiles for a year of data in parallel, then a reduce function would average the profiles in bins (again, in parallel), and a final reduce would aggregate the climatology and write it to output files. We are using SciReduce to automate the production of multiple versions of a multi-year water vapor climatology (AIRS & MODIS), stratified by Cloudsat cloud classification, and compare it to models (ECMWF & MERRA reanalysis). We will present the architecture of SciReduce, describe the achieved "clock time" speedups in fusing huge datasets on our own nodes and in the Amazon Cloud, and discuss the Cloud cost tradeoffs for storage, compute, and data transfer.

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia.

PubMed

Zhang, Huan; Werner, Johannes P; García-Bustamante, Elena; González-Rouco, Fidel; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo; Fraedrich, Klaus; Jungclaus, Johann H; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Zhu, Xiuhua; Xoplaki, Elena; Chen, Fahu; Duan, Jianping; Ge, Quansheng; Hao, Zhixin; Ivanov, Martin; Schneider, Lea; Talento, Stefanie; Wang, Jianglin; Yang, Bao; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-05-16

East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.

Asymmetric variations in the tropical ascending branches of Hadley circulations and the associated mechanisms and effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bo

2018-03-01

This study investigates the variations in the tropical ascending branches (TABs) of Hadley circulations (HCs) during past decades, using a variety of reanalysis datasets. The northern tropical ascending branch (NTAB) and the southern tropical ascending branch (STAB), which are defined as the ascending branches of the Northern Hemisphere HC and Southern Hemisphere HC, respectively, are identified and analyzed regarding their trends and variability. The reanalysis datasets consistently show a persistent increase in STAB during past decades, whereas they show less consistency in NTAB regarding its decadalto multidecadal variability, which generally features a decreasing trend. These asymmetric trends in STAB and NTAB are attributed to asymmetric trends in the tropical SSTs. The relationship between STAB/NTAB and tropical SSTs is further examined regarding their interannual and decadal- to multidecadal variability. On the interannual time scale, the STAB and NTAB are essentially modulated by the eastern-Pacific type of ENSO, with a strengthened (weakened) STAB (NTAB) under an El Niño condition. On the decadal- to multidecadal time scale, the variability of STAB and NTAB is closely related to the southern tropical SSTs and the meridional asymmetry of global tropical SSTs, respectively. The tropical eastern Pacific SSTs (southern tropical SSTs) dominate the tropical SST-NTAB/STAB relationship on the interannual (decadal- to multidecadal) scale, whereas the NTAB is a passive factor in this relationship. Moreover, a cross-hemispheric relationship between the NTAB/STAB and the HC upper-level meridional winds is revealed.

Interannual Modulation of Subtropical Atlantic Boreal Summer Dust Variability by ENSO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeFlorio, Mike; Goodwin, Ian D.; Cayan, Dan

2016-01-01

Dust variability in the climate system has been studied for several decades, yet there remains an incomplete understanding of the dynamical mechanisms controlling interannual and decadal variations in dust transport. The sparseness of multi-year observational datasets has limited our understanding of the relationship between climate variations and atmospheric dust. We use available observations and a century-length fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation to show that the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a control on North African dust transport during boreal summer. In CESM, this relationship is stronger over the dusty tropical North Atlantic than near Barbados, onemore » of the few sites having a multi-decadal observed record. During strong La Niña summers in CESM, a statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric easterly wind is associated with an increase in North African dust transport over the Atlantic. Barbados dust and Pacific SST variability are only weakly correlated in both observations and CESM, suggesting that other processes are controlling the crossbasin variability of dust. We also use our CESM simulation to show that the relationship between downstream North African dust transport and ENSO fluctuates on multidecadal timescales and may be modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings indicate that existing observations of dust over the tropical North Atlantic are not extensive enough to completely describe the variability of dust and dust transport, and demonstrate the importance of global models to supplement and interpret observational records.« less

Untangling the causes a decadal-scale drought: a case study in southeast Australia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie; Gallant, Ailie

2017-04-01

Prolonged droughts on the order of multiple years to a decade have recently afflicted many parts of highly populated regions around the globe, for example, the southwest United States and southeast Australia. However, the causes of these droughts remain unclear. A significant contribution from natural decadal-scale climate variability is likely, but there is also conflicting evidence of any contribution from anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to untangle the causes of a 13-year drought in southeast Australia spanning 1997-2009. A suite of historical and control simulations from fully coupled GCMs contained in the CMIP5 archive are employed, and the potential contributions of random climate variability, SST forcing and anthropogenic forcing to the drought are examined. It is likely that random, decadal-scale variability played a significant role in producing the prolonged rainfall deficits across southeast Australia. These were reinforced by several years with El Niño-like conditions, which commonly induce drought in the region, and a lack of La Niña conditions, which are more likely to bring rain. Evidence of contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the drought is limited

Global Climate Change: Valuable Insights from Concordant and Discordant Ice Core Histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosley-Thompson, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Porter, S. E.; Goodwin, B. P.; Wilson, A. B.

2014-12-01

Earth's ice cover is responding to the ongoing large-scale warming driven in part by anthropogenic forces. The highest tropical and subtropical ice fields are dramatically shrinking and/or thinning and unique climate histories archived therein are now threatened, compromised or lost. Many ice fields in higher latitudes are also experiencing and recording climate system changes although these are often manifested in less evident and spectacular ways. The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has experienced a rapid, widespread and dramatic warming over the last 60 years. Carefully selected ice fields in the AP allow reconstruction of long histories of key climatic variables. As more proxy climate records are recovered it is clear they reflect a combination of expected and unexpected responses to seemingly similar climate forcings. Recently acquired temperature and precipitation histories from the Bruce Plateau are examined within the context provided by other cores recently collected in the AP. Understanding the differences and similarities among these records provides a better understanding of the forces driving climate variability in the AP over the last century. The Arctic is also rapidly warming. The δ18O records from the Bona-Churchill and Mount Logan ice cores from southeast Alaska and southwest Yukon Territory, respectively, do not record this strong warming. The Aleutian Low strongly influences moisture transport to this geographically complex region, yet its interannual variability is preserved differently in these cores located just 110 km apart. Mount Logan is very sensitive to multi-decadal to multi-centennial climate shifts in the tropical Pacific while low frequency variability on Bona-Churchill is more strongly connected to Western Arctic sea ice extent. There is a natural tendency to focus more strongly on commonalities among records, particularly on regional scales. However, it is also important to investigate seemingly poorly correlated records, particularly those from geographically complex settings that appear to be dominated by similar large-scale climatological processes. Better understanding of the spatially and temporally diverse responses in such regions will expand our understanding of the mechanisms forcing climate variability in meteorologically complex environments.

Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

2013-12-01

The Straits of Singapore and Malacca (SSM) connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, the largest marginal sea situated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consequently, sea level in the SSM is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale sea level variability is dominant by the Asian monsoon. Interannual sea level signals are modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the long term, regional sea level is driven by the global climate change. However, relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on regional sea level in the SSM are yet to be quantified. In present study, publicly available tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are used to derive long-term sea level trend and variability in SSM. We used the data from research-quality stations, including four located in the Singapore Strait (Tanjong Pagar, Raffles Lighthouse, Sultan Shoal and Sembawang) and seven situated in the Malacca Strait (Kelang, Keling, Kukup, Langkawji, Lumut, Penang and Ko Taphao Noi), each one having 25-39 year data up to the year 2011. Harmonic analysis is performed to filter out astronomic tides from the tide gauge records when necessary; and missing data are reconstructed using identified relationships between sea level and the governing phenomena. The obtained sea level anomalies (SLAs) and reconstructed mean sea level are then validated against satellite altimetry data from AVISO. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea level in the SSM is varying with global mean sea level, rising for the period 1984-2009 at the rate 1.8-2.3 mm/year in the Singapore Strait and 1.1-2.8 mm/year in the Malacca Strait. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ×5 cm with correlation coefficient of -0.7 (in correspondence with the Multivariate ENSO Index). The IOD modulates interannual sea level variability only in the Malacca Strait in the range of ×3 cm with a correlation coefficient of -0.6 (with respect to the Dipole Mode Index). At annual scale, SLAs in the SSM are mainly monsoon-driven; of the order of 20 cm. Mean sea level in the Singapore Strait reach the peak during northeast monsoon and trough during southwest monsoon; while these in the Malacca Strait are highest at middle of both monsoons and lowest during their transitional monsoonal seasons. Global and regional signals are quantitatively captured in the SSM. In comparison with the global sea level trends, SSM sea level rise are larger for recent decades 1984-2009. Taking into account the rough estimate of land subsidence rates in Singapore (2006-2011) and Peninsular Malaysia (1994-2004), the trend of absolute sea level rise in SSM follows regional tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO modulates sea level variabilities in the entire SSM region, while IOD affects the Malacca Strait only. At annual scale, sea level responds differently to the Asian monsoon: quasi-periodic cycles are observed twice a year in the Malacca Strait, but once a year in the Singapore Strait. Such behavior implies that the narrow channel constriction between the Singapore and Malacca Straits may be a reason of different variability of sea level in the domains.

Historical analysis of interannual rainfall variability and trends in southeastern Brazil based on observational and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vásquez P., Isela L.; de Araujo, Lígia Maria Nascimento; Molion, Luiz Carlos Baldicero; de Araujo Abdalad, Mariana; Moreira, Daniel Medeiros; Sanchez, Arturo; Barbosa, Humberto Alves; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa

2018-02-01

The Brazilian Southeast is considered a humid region. It is also prone to landslides and floods, a result of significant increases in rainfall during spring and summer caused by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Recently, however, the region has faced a striking rainfall shortage, raising serious concerns regarding water availability. The present work endeavored to explain the meteorological drought that has led to hydrological imbalance and water scarcity in the region. Hodrick-Prescott smoothing and wavelet transform techniques were applied to long-term hydrologic and sea surface temperature (SST)—based climate indices monthly time series data in an attempt to detect cycles and trends that could help explain rainfall patterns and define a framework for improving the predictability of extreme events in the region. Historical observational hydrologic datasets available include monthly precipitation amounts gauged since 1888 and 1940 and stream flow measured since the 1930s. The spatial representativeness of rain gauges was tested against gridded rainfall satellite estimates from 2000 to 2015. The analyses revealed variability in four time scale domains—infra-annual, interannual, quasi-decadal and inter-decadal or multi-decadal. The strongest oscillations periods revealed were: for precipitation—8 months, 2, 8 and 32 years; for Pacific SST in the Niño-3.4 region—6 months, 2, 8 and 35.6 years, for North Atlantic SST variability—6 months, 2, 8 and 32 years and for Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index—6.19 months, 2.04, 8.35 and 27.31 years. Other periodicities less prominent but still statistically significant were also highlighted.

ReOBS: a new approach to synthesize long-term multi-variable dataset and application to the SIRTA supersite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiriaco, Marjolaine; Dupont, Jean-Charles; Bastin, Sophie; Badosa, Jordi; Lopez, Julio; Haeffelin, Martial; Chepfer, Helene; Guzman, Rodrigo

2018-05-01

A scientific approach is presented to aggregate and harmonize a set of 60 geophysical variables at hourly timescale over a decade, and to allow multiannual and multi-variable studies combining atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, radiation, clouds and aerosols from ground-based observations. Many datasets from ground-based observations are currently in use worldwide. They are very valuable because they contain complete and precise information due to their spatio-temporal co-localization over more than a decade. These datasets, in particular the synergy between different type of observations, are under-used because of their complexity and diversity due to calibration, quality control, treatment, format, temporal averaging, metadata, etc. Two main results are presented in this article: (1) a set of methods available for the community to robustly and reliably process ground-based data at an hourly timescale over a decade is described and (2) a single netCDF file is provided based on the SIRTA supersite observations. This file contains approximately 60 geophysical variables (atmospheric and in ground) hourly averaged over a decade for the longest variables. The netCDF file is available and easy to use for the community. In this article, observations are re-analyzed. The prefix re refers to six main steps: calibration, quality control, treatment, hourly averaging, homogenization of the formats and associated metadata, as well as expertise on more than a decade of observations. In contrast, previous studies (i) took only some of these six steps into account for each variable, (ii) did not aggregate all variables together in a single file and (iii) did not offer an hourly resolution for about 60 variables over a decade (for the longest variables). The approach described in this article can be applied to different supersites and to additional variables. The main implication of this work is that complex atmospheric observations are made readily available for scientists who are non-experts in measurements. The dataset from SIRTA observations can be downloaded at http://sirta.ipsl.fr/reobs.html (last access: April 2017) (Downloads tab, no password required) under https://doi.org/10.14768/4F63BAD4-E6AF-4101-AD5A-61D4A34620DE.

Herbivore Impact on Tundra Plant Community Dynamics Using Long-term Remote Sensing Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Q.; Engstrom, R.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

2014-12-01

Arctic tundra biome is now experiencing dramatic environmental changes accentuated by summer sea-ice decline, permafrost thaw, and shrub expansion. Multi-decadal time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, a spectral metric of vegetation productivity) shows an overall "greening" trend across the Arctic tundra biome. Regional trends in climate plausibly explain large-scale patterns of increasing plant productivity, as diminished summer sea-ice extent warms the adjacent land causing tundra vegetation to respond positively (increased photosynthetic aboveground biomass). However, at more local scales, there is a great deal of spatial variability in NDVI trends that likely reflects differences in hydrology and soil conditions, disturbance history, and use by wildlife and humans. Particularly, habitat use by large herbivores, such as reindeer and caribou, has large impacts on vegetation dynamics at local and regional scales, but the role of herbivores in modulating the response of vegetation to warming climate has received little attention. This study investigates regional tundra plant community dynamics within inhabits of different sizes of wild caribou/reindeer herds across the Arctic using GIMMS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) 3g data product. The Taimyr herd in Russia is one of the largest herds in the world with a population increase from 450,000 in 1975 to about 1 million animals in 2000. The population of the porcupine caribou herd has fluctuated in the past three decades between 100,000 and 180,000. Time-series of the maximum NDVI within the inhabit area of the Taimyr herd has increased about 2% per decade over the past three decades, while within the inhabit area of the Porcupine herd the maximum NDVI has increased about 5% per decade. Our results indicate that the impact of large herbivores can be detected from space and further analyses on seasonal dynamics of vegetation indices and herbivore behavior may provide more understanding of the plant-herbivore interactions within the context of a 'greening' Arctic.

1400 yr multiproxy record of climate variability from the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richey, J.N.; Poore, R.Z.; Flower, B.P.; Quinn, T.M.

2007-01-01

A continuous decadal-scale resolution record of climate variability over the past 1400 yr in the northern Gulf of Mexico was constructed from a box core recovered in the Pigmy Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Proxies include paired analyses of Mg/Ca and δ18O in the white variety of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and relative abundance variations of G. sacculifer in the foraminifer assemblages. Two multi-decadal intervals of sustained high Mg/Ca indicate that Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were as warm or warmer than near-modern conditions between 1000 and 1400 yr B.P. Foraminiferal Mg/Ca during the coolest interval of the Little Ice Age (ca. 250 yr B.P.) indicate that SST was 2–2.5 °C below modern SST. Four minima in the Mg/Ca record between 900 and 250 yr B.P. correspond with the Maunder, Spörer, Wolf, and Oort sunspot minima, suggesting a link between changes in solar insolation and SST variability in the Gulf of Mexico. An abrupt shift recorded in both δ18Ocalcite and relative abundance of G. sacculifer occurred ca. 600 yr B.P. The shift in the Pigmy Basin record corresponds with a shift in the sea-salt-sodium (ssNa) record from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core, linking changes in high-latitude atmospheric circulation with the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Paradigm change in ocean studies: multi-platform observing and forecasting integrated approach in response to science and society needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

The last 20 years of ocean research have allowed a description of the state of the large-scale ocean circulation. However, it is also well known that there is no such thing as an ocean state and that the ocean varies a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. More recently, in the last 10 years, new monitoring and modelling technologies have emerged allowing quasi real time observation and forecasting of the ocean at regional and local scales. Theses new technologies are key components of recent observing & forecasting systems being progressively implemented in many regional seas and coastal areas of the world oceans. As a result, new capabilities to characterise the ocean state and more important, its variability at small spatial and temporal scales, exists today in many cases in quasi-real time. Examples of relevance for society can be cited, among others our capabilities to detect and understand long-term climatic changes and also our capabilities to better constrain our forecasting capabilities of the coastal ocean circulation at temporal scales from sub-seasonal to inter-annual and spatial from regional to meso and submesoscale. The Mediterranean Sea is a well-known laboratory ocean where meso and submesoscale features can be ideally observed and studied as shown by the key contributions from projects such as Perseus, CMEMS, Jericonext, among others. The challenge for the next 10 years is the integration of theses technologies and multiplatform observing and forecasting systems to (a) monitor the variability at small scales mesoscale/weeks) in order (b) to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability and by this (c) establish the decadal variability, understand the associated biases and correct them. In other words, the new observing systems now allow a major change in our focus of ocean observation, now from small to large scales. Recent studies from SOCIB -www.socib.es- have shown the importance of this new small to large-scale multi-platform approach in ocean observation. Three examples from the integration capabilities of SOCIB facilities will be presented and discussed. First the quasi-continuous high frequency glider monitoring of the Ibiza Channel since 2011, an important biodiversity hot spot and a 'choke' point in the Western Mediterranean circulation, has allowed us to reveal a high frequency variability in the North-South exchanges, with very significant changes (0.8 - 0.9 Sv) occurring over periods of days to week of the same order as the previously known seasonal cycle. HF radar data and model results have also contributed more recently to better describe and understand the variability at small scales. Second, the Alborex/Perseus project multi-platform experiment (e.g., RV catamaran, 2 gliders, 25 drifters, 3 Argo type profilers & satellite data) that focused on submesoscale processes and ecosystem response and carried out in the Alborán Sea in May 2014. Glider results showed significant chlorophyll subduction in areas adjacent to the steep density front with patterns related to vertical motion. Initial dynamical interpretations will be presented. Third and final, I will discuss the key relevance of the data centre to guarantee data interoperability, quality control, availability and distribution for this new approach to ocean observation and forecasting to be really efficient in responding to key scientific state of the art priorities, enhancing technology development and responding to society needs.

Corrigendum to "Decadal to millennial variations in water column parameters in pelagic marine environments of the Western Tethys (Carpathian realm) during Middle-Late Jurassic - Evidence from the radiolarian record" [Glob. Planet. Chang. 162 (2018) 148-162

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bąk, Marta; Bąk, Krzysztof; Michalik, Mariola

2018-04-01

The authors regret (Abstract. The causal link between changes in Middle-Late Jurassic radiolarian habitat group abundances, microfacies and water column conditions in the Western Tethys was studied based on the examination of siliceous limestones and cherts from the Tatra Mountains, Central Western Carpathians. Deposition occurred on a morphological high with incised pelagic sedimentation within a tropical zone. High-resolution quantitative analyses of millimetre-thick microlaminae show changes in microfacies constituents that most likely record the fluxes of nutrients and biological activity in superficial waters. Variability of radiolarian assemblages that are classified to represent (i) upwelling and (ii) stratified water taxa suggest successive changes in water conditions that fluctuated between periods of upwelling and periods of formation of a thick, stratified, warm superficial layer above a deep thermocline during middle Bajocian-late Oxfordian time. Such variations would be strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere global circulation patterns, which are caused by pressure gradients and are the result of Walker circulation along the equatorial part of the Tethys and the Panthalassa Ocean, including the duration of El Niño-like and La Niña-like cycles, which affect sea surface temperature trends on decadal scales. The fluctuations in radiolarian assemblages in the sediments indicate that long-term palaeoceanographic changes occurred on multi-decadal to centennial-scales during the Bajocian, but lengthened in duration to millennial-scale during the Bathonian through the Oxfordian.)

Data fusion of multi-scale representations for structural damage detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Tian; Xu, Zili

2018-01-01

Despite extensive researches into structural health monitoring (SHM) in the past decades, there are few methods that can detect multiple slight damage in noisy environments. Here, we introduce a new hybrid method that utilizes multi-scale space theory and data fusion approach for multiple damage detection in beams and plates. A cascade filtering approach provides multi-scale space for noisy mode shapes and filters the fluctuations caused by measurement noise. In multi-scale space, a series of amplification and data fusion algorithms are utilized to search the damage features across all possible scales. We verify the effectiveness of the method by numerical simulation using damaged beams and plates with various types of boundary conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and noise immunity of the proposed method. The applicability is further validated via laboratory cases studies focusing on different damage scenarios. Both results demonstrate that the proposed method has a superior noise tolerant ability, as well as damage sensitivity, without knowing material properties or boundary conditions.

Do outdoor environmental noise and atmospheric NO2 levels spatially overlap in urban areas?

PubMed

Tenailleau, Quentin M; Bernard, Nadine; Pujol, Sophie; Parmentier, Anne-Laure; Boilleaut, Mathieu; Houot, Hélène; Joly, Daniel; Mauny, Frédéric

2016-07-01

The urban environment holds numerous emission sources for air and noise pollution, creating optimum conditions for environmental multi-exposure situations. Evaluation of the joint-exposure levels is the main obstacle for multi-exposure studies and one of the biggest challenges of the next decade. The present study aims to describe the noise/NO2 multi-exposure situations in the urban environment by exploring the possible discordant and concordant situations of both exposures. Fine-scale diffusion models were developed in the European medium-sized city of Besançon (France), and a classification method was used to evaluate the multi-exposure situations in the façade perimeter of 10,825 buildings. Although correlated (Pearson's r = 0.64, p < 0.01), urban spatial distributions of the noise and NO2 around buildings do not overlap, and 30% of the buildings were considered to be discordant in terms of the noise and NO2 exposure levels. This discrepancy is spatially structured and associated with variables describing the building's environment. Our results support the presence of several co-existing, multi-exposure situations across the city impacted by both the urban morphology and the emission and diffusion/propagation phases of each pollutant. Identifying the mechanisms of discrepancy and convergence of multi-exposure situations could help improve the health risk assessment and public health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patterns in the species-environment relationship depend on both scale and choice of response variables

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin McGarigal

2004-01-01

Multi-scale investigations of species/environment relationships are an important tool in ecological research. The scale at which independent and dependent variables are measured, and how they are coded for analysis, can strongly influence the relationships that are discovered. However, little is known about how the coding of the dependent variable set influences...

Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and Their Effect on Surface Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Tan, Qian; Wild, Martin; Qian, Yun; Yu, Hongbin; Bian, Huisheng; Wang, Weiguo

2012-01-01

We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations and ground-based remote sensing and in-situ measurements have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol optical depth and concentration trends and their relationship to the changes of emissions" and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world, including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America, Europe, Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions, dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities, downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area, and remote regions that are considered to representing "background" conditions.

Use of multi-disciplinary mooring data to extend intermittent OA observations from ship surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Send, U.; Ohman, M. D.; Martz, T. R.; Dickson, A. G.; Feely, R. A.; Demer, D.; Washburn, L.

2012-12-01

Ship surveys along the US West Coast have provided valuable insight into the conditions and changes in the water column that affect the ocean acidification state. Examples are the decades of CalCOFI sampling off southern California, and the West Coast ship survey published in Feely et al 2008. What is lacking in these observations is a description of the temporal variability of the conditions observed, and of the processes at work that lead to observed conditions or changes. Multi-disciplinary moorings are ideally suited for adding this dimension to the available observations which is critical for an understanding of the OA mechanisms. One example is the occurrence of corrosive water near the seafloor on the continental shelf, which was found in the Feely et al survey. Time series data from a mooring off Del Mar, California, with oxygen and pH sensors near the bottom in 100m depth show the frequency and intensity of corrosive and hypoxic conditions there, and how they relate to physical processes (cross-shelf and along-shelf flow), biological conditions, and climate processes (here La Nina). In the upwelling and open-ocean regimes off Pt. Conception two moorings (CCE1, CCE2) have been collecting data since early 2009 and 2010, respectively, co-located with CalCOFI stations and CCE LTER cardinal sites for ship observations. A glider also routinely passes by these moorings (along CalCOFI line 80). The moorings carry physical, oxygen, pH, pCO2, nutrient, and ecosystem sensors (chlorophyll fluorescence, water column irradiance absorption, acoustic backscatter) and telemeter most data in real-time. The mooring time series show the variability of OA parameters on daily, weekly, seasonal, and interannual time scales, and in the context of the spatial and historical sampling from ships. The multi-disciplinary sensor suite allows to study the forcing of the OA variability on those various time scales, and the impact on the ecosystem. Combined with the spatial information from ships, and with the physical and biological variables observed at the mooring, we can also start to estimate individual terms in a carbon budget. Examples for these applications will be given in the presentation.

Multi-level, multi-scale resource selection functions and resistance surfaces for conservation planning: Pumas as a case study

PubMed Central

Vickers, T. Winston; Ernest, Holly B.; Boyce, Walter M.

2017-01-01

The importance of examining multiple hierarchical levels when modeling resource use for wildlife has been acknowledged for decades. Multi-level resource selection functions have recently been promoted as a method to synthesize resource use across nested organizational levels into a single predictive surface. Analyzing multiple scales of selection within each hierarchical level further strengthens multi-level resource selection functions. We extend this multi-level, multi-scale framework to modeling resistance for wildlife by combining multi-scale resistance surfaces from two data types, genetic and movement. Resistance estimation has typically been conducted with one of these data types, or compared between the two. However, we contend it is not an either/or issue and that resistance may be better-modeled using a combination of resistance surfaces that represent processes at different hierarchical levels. Resistance surfaces estimated from genetic data characterize temporally broad-scale dispersal and successful breeding over generations, whereas resistance surfaces estimated from movement data represent fine-scale travel and contextualized movement decisions. We used telemetry and genetic data from a long-term study on pumas (Puma concolor) in a highly developed landscape in southern California to develop a multi-level, multi-scale resource selection function and a multi-level, multi-scale resistance surface. We used these multi-level, multi-scale surfaces to identify resource use patches and resistant kernel corridors. Across levels, we found puma avoided urban, agricultural areas, and roads and preferred riparian areas and more rugged terrain. For other landscape features, selection differed among levels, as did the scales of selection for each feature. With these results, we developed a conservation plan for one of the most isolated puma populations in the U.S. Our approach captured a wide spectrum of ecological relationships for a population, resulted in effective conservation planning, and can be readily applied to other wildlife species. PMID:28609466

Multi-level, multi-scale resource selection functions and resistance surfaces for conservation planning: Pumas as a case study.

PubMed

Zeller, Katherine A; Vickers, T Winston; Ernest, Holly B; Boyce, Walter M

2017-01-01

The importance of examining multiple hierarchical levels when modeling resource use for wildlife has been acknowledged for decades. Multi-level resource selection functions have recently been promoted as a method to synthesize resource use across nested organizational levels into a single predictive surface. Analyzing multiple scales of selection within each hierarchical level further strengthens multi-level resource selection functions. We extend this multi-level, multi-scale framework to modeling resistance for wildlife by combining multi-scale resistance surfaces from two data types, genetic and movement. Resistance estimation has typically been conducted with one of these data types, or compared between the two. However, we contend it is not an either/or issue and that resistance may be better-modeled using a combination of resistance surfaces that represent processes at different hierarchical levels. Resistance surfaces estimated from genetic data characterize temporally broad-scale dispersal and successful breeding over generations, whereas resistance surfaces estimated from movement data represent fine-scale travel and contextualized movement decisions. We used telemetry and genetic data from a long-term study on pumas (Puma concolor) in a highly developed landscape in southern California to develop a multi-level, multi-scale resource selection function and a multi-level, multi-scale resistance surface. We used these multi-level, multi-scale surfaces to identify resource use patches and resistant kernel corridors. Across levels, we found puma avoided urban, agricultural areas, and roads and preferred riparian areas and more rugged terrain. For other landscape features, selection differed among levels, as did the scales of selection for each feature. With these results, we developed a conservation plan for one of the most isolated puma populations in the U.S. Our approach captured a wide spectrum of ecological relationships for a population, resulted in effective conservation planning, and can be readily applied to other wildlife species.

Bivalves as indicators of environmental variation and potential anthropogenic impacts in the southern Barents Sea

PubMed Central

Carroll, Michael L.; Johnson, Beverly J.; Henkes, Gregory A.; McMahon, Kelton W.; Voronkov, Andrey; Ambrose, William G.; Denisenko, Stanislav G.

2009-01-01

Identifying patterns and drivers of natural variability in populations is necessary to gauge potential effects of climatic change and the expected increases in commercial activities in the Arctic on communities and ecosystems. We analyzed growth rates and shell geochemistry of the circumpolar Greenland smooth cockle, Serripes groenlandicus, from the southern Barents Sea over almost 70 years between 1882 and 1968. The datasets were calibrated via annually-deposited growth lines, and growth, stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C), and trace elemental (Mg, Sr, Ba, Mn) patterns were linked to environmental variations on weekly to decadal scales. Standardized growth indices revealed an oscillatory growth pattern with a multi-year periodicity, which was inversely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), and positively related to local river discharge. Up to 60% of the annual variability in the Ba/Ca could be explained by variations in river discharge at the site closest to the rivers, but the relationship disappeared at a more distant location. Patterns of δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca together provide evidence that bivalve growth ceases at elevated temperatures during the fall and recommences at the coldest temperatures in the early spring, with the implication that food, rather than temperature, is the primary driver of bivalve growth. The multi-proxy approach of combining the annually integrated information from the growth results and higher resolution geochemical results yielded a robust interpretation of biophysical coupling in the region over temporal and spatial scales. We thus demonstrate that sclerochronological proxies can be useful retrospective analytical tools for establishing a baseline of ecosystem variability in assessing potential combined impacts of climatic change and increasing commercial activities on Arctic communities. PMID:19394657

A late Holocene record of solar-forced atmospheric blocking variability over Northern Europe inferred from varved lake sediments of Lake Kuninkaisenlampi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarni, Saija; Muschitiello, Francesco; Weege, Stefanie; Brauer, Achim; Saarinen, Timo

2016-12-01

This study presents a new varved lake sediment sequence from Lake Kuninkaisenlampi, Eastern Finland. The record is constituted by alternations of clastic and biogenic laminae and provides a precise chronology extending back to 3607 ± 94 varve yrs. BP. The seasonality of the boreal climatic zone, with cold winters and mild summers, is reflected in the varve structure as a succession of three laminae from bottom to top, (i) a coarse to fine-grained detrital lamina marked by detrital catchment material transported by spring floods; (ii) a biogenic lamina with diatoms, plant and insect remnants reflecting biological productivity during the season of lake productivity; and (iii) a very fine amorphous organic lamina deposited during the winter stratification. The thickness of the detrital lamina in the lake reflects changes in the rate of spring snow melt in the catchment and is, therefore, considered a proxy for winter conditions. Hence, the record allows reconstructing local climate and environmental conditions on inter-annual to the multi-centennial timescales. We find that minerogenic accumulation reflected in the detrital lamina exhibits a high multi-decadal to centennial-scale spectral coherency with proxies for solar activity, such as Δ14C, and Total Solar Irradiance, suggesting a strong link between solar variability and sediment transport to the lake basin. Increased catchment erosion is observed during periods of low solar activity, which we ascribe to the development of more frequent atmospheric winter blocking circulation induced by solar-forced changes in the stratosphere. We suggest that soil frost in the catchment of Lake Kuninkaisenlampi related to more frequent winter blocking led to increased surface run-off and ultimately to increased catchment erosion during spring. We conclude that, during the past ca 3600 years, solar forcing may have modulated multi-decadal to centennial variations in sedimentation regimes in lakes from Eastern Finland and potentially in other North European lakes.

A Fiji multi-coral δ18O composite approach to obtaining a more accurate reconstruction of the last two-centuries of the ocean-climate variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Linsley, Braddock K.; Corrège, Thierry; Wu, Henry C.; Lemley, Gavin M.; Howe, Steve; Cabioch, Guy

2014-12-01

The limited availability of oceanographic data in the tropical Pacific Ocean prior to the satellite era makes coral-based climate reconstructions a key tool for extending the instrumental record back in time, thereby providing a much needed test for climate models and projections. We have generated a unique regional network consisting of five Porites coral δ18O time series from different locations in the Fijian archipelago. Our results indicate that using a minimum of three Porites coral δ18O records from Fiji is statistically sufficient to obtain a reliable signal for climate reconstruction, and that application of an approach used in tree ring studies is a suitable tool to determine this number. The coral δ18O composite indicates that while sea surface temperature (SST) variability is the primary driver of seasonal δ18O variability in these Fiji corals, annual average coral δ18O is more closely correlated to sea surface salinity (SSS) as previously reported. Our results highlight the importance of water mass advection in controlling Fiji coral δ18O and salinity variability at interannual and decadal time scales despite being located in the heavy rainfall region of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Fiji δ18O composite presents a secular freshening and warming trend since the 1850s coupled with changes in both interannual (IA) and decadal/interdecadal (D/I) variance. The changes in IA and D/I variance suggest a re-organization of climatic variability in the SPCZ region beginning in the late 1800s to period of a more dominant interannual variability, which could correspond to a southeast expansion of the SPCZ.

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

2003-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Ocean Monitoring Indicators for the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry derived from a high-resolution reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solidoro, Cosimo; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Bolzon, Giorgio; Salon, Stefano; Teruzzi, Anna; Lazzari, Paolo; Crise, Alessandro

2017-04-01

In recent years the interest in multi-decadal reanalyses of the status of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem has been rising constantly, also in light of the need of information for a proper implementation of European directives (e.g. MSFD). State-of-art reanalyses of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry - being an optimal integration of multi-platforms data and numerical models - constitute an extremely relevant source of information in evaluating the ecosystem status at basin and sub-basin scale. Furthermore, they provide highly valuable data to be used as boundary conditions for local studies. The objective of this work is to produce sensible environmental indicators useful to characterize the environmental status of the Mediterranean starting from an upgraded high-resolution reanalysis of Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry delivered in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Services (CMEMS). The reanalysis was qualified by a comparison against several available data sets, in terms of the main surface and sub-surface biogeochemical essential climate variables (chlorophyll, carbon dioxide partial pressure, ocean acidity, nutrients, oxygen). The reanalysis outputs reproduced spatial patterns, seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of the assessed variables, allowing for a proper description of recent trends and present status of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry. Our results confirm the vision of the Mediterranean as a mainly oligotrophic ecosystem with the presence of significant biogeochemical gradients from the eastern to the western sub-basins (e.g. in chlorophyll, nutrients, primary production). Our reanalysis can be used to contribute estimating eutrophication MFSD descriptors, atmospheric carbon sequestration fluxes, first assessment of potential resources available for the higher trophic levels and more. Indeed, the reanalysis data set provides a suitable basis for the estimation of the so-called Ocean Monitoring Indicators (OMIs) and Essential Biogeochemical Variables (EBVs), developed within CMEMS for the Ocean State Report. Some of the OMIs that have been proposed so far for the Mediterranean biogeochemistry include indicators describing: the influence of physical forcing on ecosystem (e.g. mixed layer depth); the basic ecosystem status, functioning and changes (e.g. nutrient concentration, oxygen content, chlorophyll and their variability at monthly/seasonal/annual/decadal scale); the ecosystem health (e.g. anoxia indicators, N/P ratio); the relation of ocean ecosystem with fisheries (e.g. integrated primary production, phyto/zooplankton biomasses) and climate change (e.g. acidification, CO2 fluxes). Recent results in the Mediterranean Sea OMIs investigation will be widely discussed in our contribution.

Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong

2018-02-01

Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

A further assessment of vegetation feedback on decadal Sahel rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, Fred; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia

2013-03-01

The effect of vegetation feedback on decadal-scale Sahel rainfall variability is analyzed using an ensemble of climate model simulations in which the atmospheric general circulation model ICTPAGCM ("SPEEDY") is coupled to the dynamic vegetation model VEGAS to represent feedbacks from surface albedo change and evapotranspiration, forced externally by observed sea surface temperature (SST) changes. In the control experiment, where the full vegetation feedback is included, the ensemble is consistent with the observed decadal rainfall variability, with a forced component 60 % of the observed variability. In a sensitivity experiment where climatological vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed from the control experiment, the ensemble of simulations is not consistent with the observations because of strongly reduced amplitude of decadal rainfall variability, and the forced component drops to 35 % of the observed variability. The decadal rainfall variability is driven by SST forcing, but significantly enhanced by land-surface feedbacks. Both, local evaporation and moisture flux convergence changes are important for the total rainfall response. Also the internal decadal variability across the ensemble members (not SST-forced) is much stronger in the control experiment compared with the one where vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed. It is further shown that this positive vegetation feedback is physically related to the albedo feedback, supporting the Charney hypothesis.

North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant variability mode for the winter climate of the North Atlantic sector. During a positive (negative) NAO phase, the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the subtropical Azores high and the subpolar Icelandic low is anomalously strong (weak). This affects, for example, temperature, precipitation, wind, and surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, and over large parts of Europe. In observations we find enhanced sub-decadal variability of the NAO index that goes along with a dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The corresponding SLP and SST patterns are reproduced in a control experiment of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Large-scale air-sea interaction is suggested to be essential for the North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in the KCM. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role, setting the timescale of the variability by providing a delayed negative feedback to the NAO. The interplay of the NAO and the AMOC on the sub-decadal timescale is further investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. For example, the average CMIP5 model AMOC pattern associated with sub-decadal variability is characterized by a deep-reaching dipolar structure, similar to the KCM's sub-decadal AMOC variability pattern. The results suggest that dynamical air-sea interactions are crucial to generate enhanced sub-decadal variability in the North Atlantic climate.

Comprehensive Evaluation of 1850-2100 Active Layer Thickness and Thawing Index Variability across the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frauenfeld, O. W.; Peng, X.; Zhang, T.

2016-12-01

Both the thawing index (TI) and active layer thickness (ALT) can be useful indicators of climate change in cold regions and have important implications for various surface-atmosphere interactions. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the Northern Hemisphere TI and ALT under historical and projected climate change. We combine gridded and station-based observations to assess the multi-model ensemble mean of 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models over 1850-2005. The TI and ALT are assessed based on 1901-2014 Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data, and observational ALT from 348 station locations across the Northern Hemisphere. We then employ three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) from the same CMIP5 multi-model ensemble means to evaluate changes for 2006-2100. Over the historical period, the TI varies from 0-11,000°C-days in the Northern Hemisphere, and we find good agreement between CMIP5 models and CRU data; however, the models generally underestimate observed TI and its long-term trends. Over the 2006-2100 period, the multi-model ensemble averaged TI increases significantly for all three RCPs, ranging from 1.5°C-days/yr for RCP 2.6, to 14°C-days/yr for RCP 8.5. The spatial variations in ALT from observing stations exhibit significant variability and generally range from 80-320 cm across the Northern Hemisphere, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the European Alps. Calculating observational ALT for 1971-2000 from CRU, we find lower values (30-650 cm). The CMIP5 climatology agrees well with the CRU estimates. ALT trends over the observational period are generally less than 1.5 cm/decade, but as high as 3 cm/decade in some isolated regions. While this general trend magnitude agrees with that from CMIP5, the multi-model ensemble underestimates trends and exhibits much less spatial variability. Projected trends range from 0.77 cm/decade in RCP 2.6, to 6.5 cm/decade in RCP 8.5 in the permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere. Over the observational period, summer air temperature and precipitation are found to be the main drivers of ALT variability. However, the declining Arctic sea ice trend is also strongly negatively correlated with ALT increases, pointing to a common driver of these cryospheric changes.

Multi-year Droughts in California in the Last Two Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

2016-12-01

Multi-year droughts in California including the notorious 2013-2014 drought became serious problems recently, causing significant socio-economic damages. In the present study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts in California, i.e., 1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2014, during the recent two decades (1995-2014), we compared and investigated their characteristics of the atmosphere and the oceans. By positioning abnormally strong anticyclonic circulations at 500 hPa over the North Pacific, the droughts seem to start around strong La Niña years and continued or intensified until the year prior to an El Niño. While precipitation decreases in La Niña years have been well documented previously, the intensification of droughts in the later period has not. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses suggest that, around strong La Niña years, the first EOF mode (EOF1) of the 500 hPa height is active, while the second EOF mode (EOF2) becomes active in moderate/weak La Nina years. It is also found that while EOF1 is sensitive to SST variability in the central Pacific which is associated with the major ENSO events, EOF2 is sensitive to that in the western/South Pacific. Relations to various climate variability other than ENSO, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH), Pacific/North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are also examined.

Interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric radiocarbon reveals natural variability of Southern Ocean winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, K. B.; Mikaloff-Fletcher, S. E.; Bianchi, D.; Beaulieu, C.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hogg, A. G.; Iudicone, D.; Lintner, B. R.; Naegler, T.; Reimer, P. J.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R. D.

2011-10-01

Tree ring Δ14C data (Reimer et al., 2004; McCormac et al., 2004) indicate that atmospheric Δ14C varied on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, in both hemispheres, over the period between AD 950 and 1830. The Northern and Southern Hemispheric Δ14C records display similar variability, but from the data alone is it not clear whether these variations are driven by the production of 14C in the stratosphere (Stuiver and Quay, 1980) or by perturbations to exchanges between carbon reservoirs (Siegenthaler et al., 1980). As the sea-air flux of 14CO2 has a clear maximum in the open ocean regions of the Southern Ocean, relatively modest perturbations to the winds over this region drive significant perturbations to the interhemispheric gradient. In this study, model simulations are used to show that Southern Ocean winds are likely a main driver of the observed variability in the interhemispheric gradient over AD 950-1830, and further, that this variability may be larger than the Southern Ocean wind trends that have been reported for recent decades (notably 1980-2004). This interpretation also implies that there may have been a significant weakening of the winds over the Southern Ocean within a few decades of AD 1375, associated with the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The driving forces that could have produced such a shift in the winds at the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition remain unknown. Our process-focused suite of perturbation experiments with models raises the possibility that the current generation of coupled climate and earth system models may underestimate the natural background multi-decadal- to centennial-timescale variations in the winds over the Southern Ocean.

Large-Scale, Multi-Sensor Atmospheric Data Fusion Using Hybrid Cloud Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Brian; Manipon, Gerald; Hua, Hook; Fetzer, Eric

2014-05-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over decades. Moving to multi-sensor, long-duration analyses of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over 10 years of data. To efficiently assemble such datasets, we are utilizing Elastic Computing in the Cloud and parallel map-reduce-based algorithms. However, these problems are Data Intensive computing so the data transfer times and storage costs (for caching) are key issues. SciReduce is a Hadoop-like parallel analysis system, programmed in parallel python, that is designed from the ground up for Earth science. SciReduce executes inside VMWare images and scales to any number of nodes in a hybrid Cloud (private eucalyptus & public Amazon). Unlike Hadoop, SciReduce operates on bundles of named numeric arrays, which can be passed in memory or serialized to disk in netCDF4 or HDF5. Multi-year datasets are automatically "sharded" by time and space across a cluster of nodes so that years of data (millions of files) can be processed in a massively parallel way. Input variables (arrays) are pulled on-demand into the Cloud using OPeNDAP URLs or other subsetting services, thereby minimizing the size of the cached input and intermediate datasets. We are using SciReduce to automate the production of multiple versions of a ten-year A-Train water vapor climatology under a NASA MEASURES grant. We will present the architecture of SciReduce, describe the achieved "clock time" speedups in fusing datasets on our own nodes and in the Cloud, and discuss the Cloud cost tradeoffs for storage, compute, and data transfer. We will also present a concept and prototype for staging NASA's A-Train Atmospheric datasets (Levels 2 & 3) in the Amazon Cloud so that any number of compute jobs can be executed "near" the multi-sensor data. Given such a system, multi-sensor climate studies over 10-20 years of data could be perform

Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2010-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-01-01

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

2008-12-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is the world's most ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the A-Train platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the cloud scenes from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time matchups between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, and assemble merged datasets for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the VizFlow GUI, or uses a text editor to modify the simple XML workflow documents. The SciFlo client & server engines optimize the execution of such distributed workflows and allow the user to transparently find and use datasets and operators without worrying about the actual location of the Grid resources. The engine transparently moves data to the operators, and moves operators to the data (on the dozen trusted SciFlo nodes). SciFlo also deploys a variety of Data Grid services to: query datasets in space and time, locate & retrieve on-line data granules, provide on-the-fly variable and spatial subsetting, and perform pairwise instrument matchups for A-Train datasets. These services are combined into efficient workflows to assemble the desired large-scale, merged climate datasets. SciFlo is currently being applied in several large climate studies: comparisons of aerosol optical depth between MODIS, MISR, AERONET ground network, and U. Michigan's IMPACT aerosol transport model; characterization of long-term biases in microwave and infrared instruments (AIRS, MLS) by comparisons to GPS temperature retrievals accurate to 0.1 degrees Kelvin; and construction of a decade-long, multi-sensor water vapor climatology stratified by classified cloud scene by bringing together datasets from AIRS/AMSU, AMSR-E, MLS, MODIS, and CloudSat (NASA MEASUREs grant, Fetzer PI). The presentation will discuss the SciFlo technologies, their application in these distributed workflows, and the many challenges encountered in assembling and analyzing these massive datasets.

Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

2009-04-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time "matchups" between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, assemble merged datasets, and compute fused products for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the VizFlow GUI, or uses a text editor to modify the simple XML workflow documents. The SciFlo client & server engines optimize the execution of such distributed workflows and allow the user to transparently find and use datasets and operators without worrying about the actual location of the Grid resources. The engine transparently moves data to the operators, and moves operators to the data (on the dozen trusted SciFlo nodes). SciFlo also deploys a variety of Data Grid services to: query datasets in space and time, locate & retrieve on-line data granules, provide on-the-fly variable and spatial subsetting, perform pairwise instrument matchups for A-Train datasets, and compute fused products. These services are combined into efficient workflows to assemble the desired large-scale, merged climate datasets. SciFlo is currently being applied in several large climate studies: comparisons of aerosol optical depth between MODIS, MISR, AERONET ground network, and U. Michigan's IMPACT aerosol transport model; characterization of long-term biases in microwave and infrared instruments (AIRS, MLS) by comparisons to GPS temperature retrievals accurate to 0.1 degrees Kelvin; and construction of a decade-long, multi-sensor water vapor climatology stratified by classified cloud scene by bringing together datasets from AIRS/AMSU, AMSR-E, MLS, MODIS, and CloudSat (NASA MEASUREs grant, Fetzer PI). The presentation will discuss the SciFlo technologies, their application in these distributed workflows, and the many challenges encountered in assembling and analyzing these massive datasets.

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, C.; Faust, E.

2013-01-01

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr - driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

PubMed

Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

2014-01-01

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Kamiya, T.; Schwede, S.; Willard, D.A.

2003-01-01

We present paleoclimate evidence for rapid (< 100 years) shifts of ~2-4oC in Chesapeake Bay (CB) temperature ~2100, 1600, 950, 650, 400 and 150 years before present (years BP) reconstructed from magnesium/calcium (Mg/Ca) paleothermometry. These include large temperature excursions during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1900 AD) and the Medieval Warm Period (~800-1300 AD) possibly related to changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Evidence is presented for a long period of sustained regional and North Atlantic-wide warmth with low-amplitude temperature variability between ~450 and 1000 AD. In addition to centennial-scale temperature shifts, the existence of numerous temperature maxima between 2200 and 250 years BP (average ~70 years) suggests that multi-decadal processes typical of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are an inherent feature of late Holocene climate. However, late 19th and 20th century temperature extremes in Chesapeake Bay associated with NAO climate variability exceeded those of the prior 2000 years, including the interval 450-1000 AD, by 2-3oC, suggesting anomalous recent behavior of the climate system.

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A.; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M.; Zhao, Jian-xin

2014-01-01

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability. PMID:24416214

Coral luminescence identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a primary driver of river runoff variability impacting the southern Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M; Zhao, Jian-xin

2014-01-01

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.

Factors Affecting the Inter-annual to Centennial Time Scale Variability of All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2016-04-01

The All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is highly important for the livelihood of more than 1 billion people living in the Indian sub-continent. The agriculture of this region is heavily dependent on seasonal (JJAS) monsoon rainfall. An early start or a slight delay of monsoon, or an early withdrawal or prolonged monsoon season may upset the farmer's agricultural plans, can cause significant reduction in crop yield, and hence economic loss. Understanding of AISMR is also vital because it is a part of global atmospheric circulation system. Several studies show that AISMR is influenced by internal climate forcings (ICFs) viz. ENSO, AMO, PDO etc. as well as external climate forcings (ECFs) viz. Greenhouse Gases, volcanic eruptions, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We investigate the influence of ICFs and ECFs on AISMR using recently developed statistical technique called De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA). DPCCA can analyse a complex system of several interlinked variables. Often, climatic variables, being cross correlated, are simultaneously tele-connected with several other variables and it is not easy to isolate their intrinsic relationship. In the presence of non-stationarities and background signals the calculated correlation coefficients can be overestimated and erroneous. DPCCA method removes the non-stationarities and partials out the influence of background signals from the variables being cross correlated and thus give a robust estimate of correlation. We have performed the analysis using NOAA Reconstructed SSTs and homogenised instrumental AISMR data set from 1854-1999. By employing the DPCCA method we find that there is a statistically insignificant negative intrinsic relation (by excluding the influence of ICFs, and ECFs except TSI) between AISMR and TSI on decadal to centennial time scale. The ICFs considerably modulate the relation between AISMR and solar activity between 50-80 year time scales and transform this relationship to statistically significant positive. We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. Further, we find that there is statistically positive intrinsic relation between AISMR and AMO from 26 to 100 year time scales which is modulated by ICFs (PDO, ENSO) and ECFs. PDO, ENSO, and solar activity weaken this intrinsic relationship whereas the combined effect of ECFc (solar activity, volcanic eruptions, CO2, & tropospheric aerosol optical depth) results in strengthening of this relationship from 70 to 100 year time scales. There is a negative intrinsic relation between AISMR and PDO which is not statistically significant at any time scale. However this relationship becomes statistically significant only in the presence of combined effect of North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO (4-39 year time scale) and individual effect of TSI (3-26 year time scale) on AISMR. We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.

Pyrodiversity promotes avian diversity over the decade following forest fire

Treesearch

Morgan W. Tingley; Viviana Ruiz-Gutiérrez; Robert L. Wilkerson; Christine A. Howell; Rodney B. Siegel

2016-01-01

An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity.We test whether pyrodiversity—defined as the standard deviation of fire severity—increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year...

Space Technology 5 Multi-point Observations of Field-aligned Currents: Temporal Variability of Meso-Scale Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan; Wang, Yongli; Slavin, James A.; Strangeway, Robert J.

2007-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of - 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx. 1 min for meso-scale currents and approx. 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Southwestern USA Drought over Multiple Millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzer, M. W.; Kipfmueller, K. F.

2014-12-01

Severe to extreme drought conditions currently exist across much of the American West. There is increasing concern that climate change may be worsening droughts in the West and particularly the Southwest. Thus, it is important to understand the role of natural variability and to place current conditions in a long-term context. We present a tree-ring derived reconstruction of regional-scale precipitation for the Southwestern USA over several millennia. A network of 48 tree-ring chronologies from California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado was used. All of the chronologies are at least 1,000 years long. The network was subjected to data reduction through PCA and a "nested" multiple linear regression reconstruction approach. The regression model was able to capture 72% of the variance in September-August precipitation over the last 1,000 years and 53% of the variance over the first millennium of the Common Era. Variance captured and spatial coverage further declined back in time as the shorter chronologies dropped out of the model, eventually reaching 24% of variance captured at 3250 BC. Results show regional droughts on decadal- to multi-decadal scales have been prominent and persistent phenomena in the region over the last several millennia. Anthropogenic warming is likely to exacerbate the effects of future droughts on human and other biotic populations.

High Resolution Environmental Magnetic Study of a Holocene Sedimentary Record from Zaca Lake, Ca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platzman, E. S.; Lund, S.; Kirby, M. E.; Feakins, S. J.

2012-12-01

Magnetic studies of Holocene lake sediments recovered from Zaca lake have yielded a 3000-year high resolution record of environmental variability and paleolimnology. Zaca lake is a small oligomictic lake ~12m deep situated 730 m above sea level in the steep canyons of the San Rafael mountains, NW of Santa Barbara. Throughout much of the year Zaca lake is anaerobic below 7m. Hydrogen sulfide, fed into the lake via runoff and local sulphur springs, is present throughout the hypolimnion with concentrations sometime exceeding 30 mg/ l. During the summer months when the lake is stratified, light colored carbonate rich microlaminae are formed; and often during the winter months when the lake overturns, killing the anaerobic bacteria, black microlamina rich in iron sulfide are deposited on the lake floor, creating a stratigraphy reflecting patterns of environmental variability on annual to millennial scales. Samples for magnetic analysis were obtained from 8.5 m of core recovered from the central region of Zaca lake. Ages, constrained using radiocarbon chronostratigraphy, yielded sedimentation rates of 2-10 mm/yr with an average rate of 3 mm per yr over the 3000 yr interval. Parameters reflecting decadal scale variability in magnetic concentration (susceptibility, ARM, SIRM) and grainsize (ARM/Chi) were measured every 2 cm. Additional rock magnetic tests, including thermal demagnetization of three component IRM, were applied at selected intervals to constrain the magnetic mineralogy. These data were combined with analyses of clastic grain size, % calcium carbonate and % organics to create a multiproxy record of environmental variability. Results show that Zaca lake has had a complex depositional history. Anthropogenic effects associated with European colonization are present in the upper meters. Most notable, however, is a dramatic shift in the magnetic parameters and mineralogy between the upper and lower half of the core (circa 1300 ybp) indicating a shift in regime, and very different processes may have affected the magnetic signal. Zaca lake sediments also record a pronounced cyclicity at a variety of timescales. In addition to a documented mm scale cyclicity, cyclicity at the 1 cm (multi-year) and 10 cm (decadal) scales may reflect rainfall patterns and fire history of the central California coast ranges.

Decadal time scale variability recorded in the Quelccaya summit ice core δ18O isotopic ratio series and its relation with the sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mélice, J. L.; Roucou, P.

The spectral characteristics of the δ18O isotopic ratio time series of the Quelccaya ice cap summit core are investigated with the multi taper method (MTM), the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the wavelet transform (WT) techniques for the 500 y long 1485-1984 period. The most significant (at the 99.8% level) cycle according to the MTM F-test has a period centered at 14.4 y while the largest variance explaining oscillation according to the SSA technique has a period centered at 12.9 y. The stability over time of these periods is investigated by performing evolutive MTM and SSA on the 500 y long δ18O series with a 100 y wide moving window. It is shown that the cycles with largest amplitude and that the oscillations with largest extracting variance have corresponding periods aggregated around 13.5 y that are very stable over the period between 1485 and 1984. The WT of the same isotopic time series reveals the existence of a main oscillation around 12 y which are also very stable in time. The relation between the isotopic data at Quelccaya and the annual sea surface temperature (SST) field anomalies is then evaluated for the overlapping 1919-1984 period. Significant global correlation and significant coherency at 12.1 y are found between the isotopic series and the annual global sea surface temperature (GSST) series. Moreover, the correlation between the low (over 8 y) frequency component of the isotopic time series and the annual SST field point out significant values in the tropical North Atlantic. This region is characterized by a main SST variability at 12.8 y. The Quelccaya δ18O isotopic ratio series may therefore be considered as a good recorder of the tropical North Atlantic SSTs. This may be explained by the following mechanism: the water vapor amount evaporated by the tropical North Atlantic is function of the SST. So is the water vapor δ18O isotopic ratio. This water vapor is advected during the rainy season by northeast winds and precipitates at the Quelccaya summit with its tropical North Atlantic isotopic signature. It is also suggested from this described stability of the decadal time scale variability observed in the Quelccaya isotopic series, that the decadal time scale GSST variability was also stable during the last five centuries.

Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Känel, Lukas; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Gruber, Nicolas

2017-08-01

A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998-2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.

Himalayan glaciers: understanding contrasting patterns of glacier behavior using multi-temporal satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racoviteanu, A.

2014-12-01

High rates of glacier retreat for the last decades are often reported, and believed to be induced by 20th century climate changes. However, regional glacier fluctuations are complex, and depend on a combination of climate and local topography. Furthermore, in ares such as the Hindu-Kush Himalaya, there are concerns about warming, decreasing monsoon precipitation and their impact on local glacier regimes. Currently, the challenge is in understanding the magnitude of feedbacks between large-scale climate forcing and small-scale glacier behavior. Spatio-temporal patterns of glacier distribution are still llimited in some areas of the high Hindu-Kush Himalaya, but multi-temporal satellite imagery has helped fill spatial and temporal gaps in regional glacier parameters in the last decade. Here I present a synopsis of the behavior of glaciers across the Himalaya, following a west to east gradient. In particular, I focus on spatial patterns of glacier parameters in the eastern Himalaya, which I investigate at multi-spatial scales using remote sensing data from declassified Corona, ASTER, Landsat ETM+, Quickbird and Worldview2 sensors. I also present the use of high-resolution imagery, including texture and thermal analysis for mapping glacier features at small scale, which are particularly useful in understanding surface trends of debris-covered glaciers, which are prevalent in the Himalaya. I compare and contrast spatial patterns of glacier area and élévation changes in the monsoon-influenced eastern Himalaya (the Everest region in the Nepal Himalaya and Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya) with other observations from the dry western Indian Himalaya (Ladakh and Lahul-Spiti), both field measurements and remote sensing-based. In the eastern Himalaya, results point to glacier area change of -0.24 % ± 0.08% per year from the 1960's to the 2006's, with a higher rate of retreat in the last decade (-0.43% /yr). Debris-covered glacier tongues show thinning trends of -30.8 m± 39 m on average over the last four decades, similar to other studies in the same climatic area. However, at small scales, the behavior of glaciers is highly heterogenous, with contrasting patterns of thickening glacier termini versus retreating nad thinning glacier tongues.

Evaluation of a Multi-Decadal Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone by Comparison with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Steenrod, Steven; Pawson, Steven

2003-01-01

One key application of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is prediction of the response of ozone and other constituents to various natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These include changes in composition, such as the previous rise and recent decline in emission of man-made chlorofluorcarbons, changes in aerosol loading due to volcanic eruption, and changes in solar forcing. Comparisons of hindcast model results for the past few decades with observations are a key element of model evaluation and provide a sense of the reliability of model predictions. The 25 year data set from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers is a cornerstone of such model evaluation. Here we report evaluation of three-dimensional multi-decadal simulation of stratospheric composition. Meteorological fields for this off-line calculation are taken from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model. Model fields are compared with observations from TOMS and also with observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). This overall evaluation will emphasize the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of the simulation compared with observed atmospheric variability.

Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread, Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations.

PubMed

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; McKinlay, John; Newbery, Kym; Takahashi, Akinori; Kato, Akiko; Barbraud, Christophe; DeLord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-01-01

Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980's and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960's. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.

Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread, Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations

PubMed Central

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; McKinlay, John; Newbery, Kym; Takahashi, Akinori; Kato, Akiko; Barbraud, Christophe; DeLord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-01-01

Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980’s and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960’s. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20th century exploitation of fish and whale populations. PMID:26488299

Space Technology 5 Multi-Point Observations of Temporal Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan; Wang, Yongli; Slavin, James A.; Strangeway, Robert J.

2008-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of approximately 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approximately 1 min for meso-scale currents and approximately 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Modeling the Impacts of Long-Term Warming Trends on Gross Primary Productivity Across North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. A.; Grant, R. F.

2014-12-01

There is evidence of warming over recent decades in most regions of North America (NA) that affects ecosystem productivity and the past decade has been the warmest since instrumental records of global surface temperatures began. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal variability and trends of warming across NA using climate data from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2010 with a 3-hourly time-step and 0.250 x 0.250 spatial resolution as part of the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A comprehensive mathematical process model, ecosys was used to simulate impacts of this variability in warming on gross primary productivity (GPP). In a test of model results, annual GPP modeled for pixels which corresponded to the locations of 25 eddy covariance towers correlated well (R2=0.76) with annual GPP derived from the flux towers in 2005. At the continental scale long-term (2000 - 2010) annual average modeled GPP for NA correlated well (geographically weighed regression R2 = 0.8) with MODIS GPP, demonstrating close similarities in spatial patterns. Results from the NARR indicated that most areas of NA, particularly high latitude regions, have experienced warming but changes in precipitation vary spatially over the last three decades. GPP modeled in most areas with lower mean annual air temperature (Ta), such as those in boreal climate zones, increased due to early spring and late autumn warming observed in NARR. However modeled GPP declined in most southwestern regions of NA, due to water stress from rising Ta and declining precipitation. Overall, GPP modeled across NA had a positive trend of +0.025 P g C yr-1 with a range of -1.16 to 0.87 P g C yr-1 from the long-term mean. Interannual variability of GPP was the greatest in southwest of US and part of the Great Plains, which could be as a result of frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) events that led to major droughts.

Characterizing environmental change in interior Alaska (1982-2012) using multi-temporal, multi-scale remote sensing data and field measurements

Treesearch

Hans-Erik Andersen; Robert. Pattison

2012-01-01

We investigate how vegetation in the Tanana Valley of interior Alaska (120,000 km2) has responded to a changing climate over the preceding three decades (1982-2012). Expected impacts include: 1) drying of wetlands and subsequent encroachment of woody vegetation into areas previously dominated by herbaceous and bryoid vegetation types, 2) changes...

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

Long-range persistence in the global mean surface temperature and the global warming "time bomb"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, M.; Rypdal, K.

2012-04-01

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Maximum Likelihood Estimations (MLE) based on instrumental data over the last 160 years indicate that there is Long-Range Persistence (LRP) in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) on time scales of months to decades. The persistence is much higher in sea surface temperature than in land temperatures. Power spectral analysis of multi-model, multi-ensemble runs of global climate models indicate further that this persistence may extend to centennial and maybe even millennial time-scales. We also support these conclusions by wavelet variogram analysis, DFA, and MLE of Northern hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstructions over the last two millennia. These analyses indicate that the GMST is a strongly persistent noise with Hurst exponent H>0.9 on time scales from decades up to at least 500 years. We show that such LRP can be very important for long-term climate prediction and for the establishment of a "time bomb" in the climate system due to a growing energy imbalance caused by the slow relaxation to radiative equilibrium under rising anthropogenic forcing. We do this by the construction of a multi-parameter dynamic-stochastic model for the GMST response to deterministic and stochastic forcing, where LRP is represented by a power-law response function. Reconstructed data for total forcing and GMST over the last millennium are used with this model to estimate trend coefficients and Hurst exponent for the GMST on multi-century time scale by means of MLE. Ensembles of solutions generated from the stochastic model also allow us to estimate confidence intervals for these estimates.

Multi-scale approach to the environmental factors effects on spatio-temporal variability of Chironomus salinarius (Diptera: Chironomidae) in a French coastal lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartier, V.; Claret, C.; Garnier, R.; Fayolle, S.; Franquet, E.

2010-03-01

The complexity of the relationships between environmental factors and organisms can be revealed by sampling designs which consider the contribution to variability of different temporal and spatial scales, compared to total variability. From a management perspective, a multi-scale approach can lead to time-saving. Identifying environmental patterns that help maintain patchy distribution is fundamental in studying coastal lagoons, transition zones between continental and marine waters characterised by great environmental variability on spatial and temporal scales. They often present organic enrichment inducing decreased species richness and increased densities of opportunist species like C hironomus salinarius, a common species that tends to swarm and thus constitutes a nuisance for human populations. This species is dominant in the Bolmon lagoon, a French Mediterranean coastal lagoon under eutrophication. Our objective was to quantify variability due to both spatial and temporal scales and identify the contribution of different environmental factors to this variability. The population of C. salinarius was sampled from June 2007 to June 2008 every two months at 12 sites located in two areas of the Bolmon lagoon, at two different depths, with three sites per area-depth combination. Environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen both in sediment and under water surface, sediment organic matter content and grain size) and microbial activities (i.e. hydrolase activities) were also considered as explanatory factors of chironomid densities and distribution. ANOVA analysis reveals significant spatial differences regarding the distribution of chironomid larvae for the area and the depth scales and their interaction. The spatial effect is also revealed for dissolved oxygen (water), salinity and fine particles (area scale), and for water column depth. All factors but water column depth show a temporal effect. Spearman's correlations highlight the seasonal effect (temperature, dissolved oxygen in sediment and water) as well as the effect of microbial activities on chironomid larvae. Our results show that a multi-scale approach identifies patchy distribution, even when there is relative environmental homogeneity.

Quantifying the Climate-Scale Accuracy of Satellite Cloud Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Y.; Wielicki, B. A.; Sun-Mack, S.; Minnis, P.; Liang, L.; Di Girolamo, L.

2014-12-01

Instrument calibration and cloud retrieval algorithms have been developed to minimize retrieval errors on small scales. However, measurement uncertainties and assumptions within retrieval algorithms at the pixel level may alias into decadal-scale trends of cloud properties. We first, therefore, quantify how instrument calibration changes could alias into cloud property trends. For a perfect observing system the climate trend accuracy is limited only by the natural variability of the climate variable. Alternatively, for an actual observing system, the climate trend accuracy is additionally limited by the measurement uncertainty. Drifts in calibration over time may therefore be disguised as a true climate trend. We impose absolute calibration changes to MODIS spectral reflectance used as input to the CERES Cloud Property Retrieval System (CPRS) and run the modified MODIS reflectance through the CPRS to determine the sensitivity of cloud properties to calibration changes. We then use these changes to determine the impact of instrument calibration changes on trend uncertainty in reflected solar cloud properties. Secondly, we quantify how much cloud retrieval algorithm assumptions alias into cloud optical retrieval trends by starting with the largest of these biases: the plane-parallel assumption in cloud optical thickness (τC) retrievals. First, we collect liquid water cloud fields obtained from Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) measurements to construct realistic probability distribution functions (PDFs) of 3D cloud anisotropy (a measure of the degree to which clouds depart from plane-parallel) for different ISCCP cloud types. Next, we will conduct a theoretical study with dynamically simulated cloud fields and a 3D radiative transfer model to determine the relationship between 3D cloud anisotropy and 3D τC bias for each cloud type. Combining these results provides distributions of 3D τC bias by cloud type. Finally, we will estimate the change in frequency of occurrence of cloud types between two decades and will have the information needed to calculate the total change in 3D optical thickness bias between two decades. If we uncover aliases in this study, the results will motivate the development and rigorous testing of climate specific cloud retrieval algorithms.

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Auroop R.; Ganguli, Poulomi; Kumar, Devashish

2014-09-01

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the contiguous United States at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especiallymore » for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risk are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Our analyses showed that in the near term, more than 200 counties are likely to be exposed to water scarcity in the next three decades. Further, we noticed that stream gauges in more than five counties in the 2030s and ten counties in the 2040s showed a significant increase in water temperature, which exceeded the power plant effluent temperature threshold set by the EPA. Power plants in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas are likely to be vulnerable owing to climate driven water stresses. In all, our analysis suggests that under various combinations of plausible climate change and population growth scenarios, anywhere between 4.5 and 9 quads of delivered electricity (from existing plants) would be generated in counties that are at risk of water scarcity and/or unacceptably high stream temperatures.« less

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

2016-01-01

Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability, which in turn, will lead to a better understanding of internal Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability and its response to external climate forcing mechanisms.

A national perspective on paleoclimate streamflow and water storage infrastructure in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Sun, Xun; Cook, Edward

2017-04-01

Large-scale water storage infrastructure in the Conterminous United States (CONUS) provides a means of regulating the temporal variability in water supply with storage capacities ranging from seasonal storage in the wetter east to multi-annual and decadal-scale storage in the drier west. Regional differences in water availability across the CONUS provides opportunities for optimizing water dependent economic activities, such as food and energy production, through storage and transportation. However, the ability to sufficiently regulate water supplies into the future is compromised by inadequate monitoring of non-federally-owned dams that make up around 97% of all dams. Furthermore, many of these dams are reaching or have exceeded their economic design life. Understanding the role of dams in the current and future landscape of water requirements in the CONUS is needed to prioritize dam safety remediation or identify where redundant dams may be removed. A national water assessment and planning process is needed for addressing water requirements, accounting for regional differences in water supply and demand, and the role of dams in such a landscape. Most dams in the CONUS were designed without knowledge of devastating floods and prolonged droughts detected in multi-centennial paleoclimate records, consideration of projected climate change, nor consideration of optimal operation across large-scale regions. As a step towards informing water supply across the CONUS we present a paleoclimate reconstruction of annual streamflow across the CONUS over the past 555 years using a spatially and temporally complete paleoclimate record of summer drought across the CONUS targeting a set of US Geological Survey streamflow sites. The spatial and temporal structures of national streamflow variability are analyzed using hierarchical clustering, principal component analysis, and wavelet analyses. The reconstructions show signals of contemporary droughts such as the Dust Bowl (1930s) and 1950s droughts. Decadal-scale variability was detected in the late 1900s in the western US, however, similar modes of temporal variability were rarely present prior to the 1950s. The 20th century featured longer wet spells and shorter dry spells compared with the preceding 450 years. Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast are negatively correlated with the central US suggesting the potential to mitigate some drought impacts by balancing economic activities and insurance pools across these regions during major droughts. The converging issues of a slowly growing US population, evolving demands for food, energy, and water, aging dams, and reduced water storage capacity through decommissioning and sedimentation highlights the pressing need for a national water assessment and a subsequent national water plan. There are many factors that need to be understood in order to appropriately assess dam and reservoir requirements across the CONUS and to improve water use and flood protection efficiency. In addition to historical and paleoclimate-informed surface water supply, factors requiring consideration in planning for future dam and reservoir infrastructure include: -the role of conjunctive surface and groundwater storage and use; -basin-scale operational strategies to balance sectoral water demand; -projections of surface water supply; -projections of regional water demands; -impacts of water conservation; and -the influence of water policy and financial instruments.

Multi-scale variability and long-range memory in indoor Radon concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Reik V.; Potirakis, Stelios; Barbosa, Susana

2014-05-01

The presence or absence of long-range correlations in the variations of indoor Radon concentrations has recently attracted considerable interest. As a radioactive gas naturally emitted from the ground in certain geological settings, understanding environmental factors controlling Radon concentrations and their dynamics is important for estimating its effect on human health and the efficiency of possible measures for reducing the corresponding exposition. In this work, we re-analyze two high-resolution records of indoor Radon concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal, each of which spans several months of continuous measurements. In order to evaluate the presence of long-range correlations and fractal scaling, we utilize a multiplicity of complementary methods, including power spectral analysis, ARFIMA modeling, classical and multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis, and two different estimators of the signals' fractal dimensions. Power spectra and fluctuation functions reveal some complex behavior with qualitatively different properties on different time-scales: white noise in the high-frequency part, indications of some long-range correlated process dominating time scales of several hours to days, and pronounced low-frequency variability associated with tidal and/or meteorological forcing. In order to further decompose these different scales of variability, we apply two different approaches. On the one hand, applying multi-resolution analysis based on the discrete wavelet transform allows separately studying contributions on different time scales and characterize their specific correlation and scaling properties. On the other hand, singular system analysis (SSA) provides a reconstruction of the essential modes of variability. Specifically, by considering only the first leading SSA modes, we achieve an efficient de-noising of our environmental signals, highlighting the low-frequency variations together with some distinct scaling on sub-daily time-scales resembling the properties of a long-range correlated process.

Hydrologic impacts of land cover variability and change at seasonal to decadal time scales over North America, 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Land cover variability and change have been shown to influence the terrestrial hydrologic cycle by altering the partitioning of moisture and energy fluxes. However, the magnitude and directionality of the relationship between land cover and surface hydrology has been shown to vary substantially across regions. Here, we provide an assessment of the impacts of land cover change on hydrologic processes at seasonal (vegetation phenology) to decadal scales (land cover conversion) in the United States and Mexico. To this end, we combine time series of remotely-sensed land surface characteristics with land cover maps for different decades as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Land surface characteristics (leaf area index, surface albedo, and canopy fraction derived from normalized difference vegetation index) were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) at 8-day intervals over the period 2000-2016. Land cover maps representing conditions in 1992, 2001, and 2011 were derived by homogenizing the National Land Cover Database over the US and the INEGI Series I through V maps over Mexico. An additional map covering all of North America was derived from the most frequent land cover class observed in each pixel of the MODIS MOD12Q1 product during 2001-2013. Land surface characteristics were summarized over land cover fractions at 1/16 degree (6 km) resolution. For each land cover map, hydrologic simulations were conducted that covered the period 1980-2013, using the best-available, hourly meteorological forcings at a similar spatial resolution. Based on these simulations, we present a comparison of the contributions of land cover change and climate variability at seasonal to decadal scales on the hydrologic and energy budgets, identifying the dominant components through time and space. This work also offers a valuable dataset on land cover variability and its hydrologic response for continental-scale assessments and modeling.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

Explanatory Power of Multi-scale Physical Descriptors in Modeling Benthic Indices Across Nested Ecoregions of the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holburn, E. R.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Poff, N. L.; Cuhaciyan, C. O.

2005-05-01

Using over 300 R/EMAP sites in OR and WA, we examine the relative explanatory power of watershed, valley, and reach scale descriptors in modeling variation in benthic macroinvertebrate indices. Innovative metrics describing flow regime, geomorphic processes, and hydrologic-distance weighted watershed and valley characteristics are used in multiple regression and regression tree modeling to predict EPT richness, % EPT, EPT/C, and % Plecoptera. A nested design using seven ecoregions is employed to evaluate the influence of geographic scale and environmental heterogeneity on the explanatory power of individual and combined scales. Regression tree models are constructed to explain variability while identifying threshold responses and interactions. Cross-validated models demonstrate differences in the explanatory power associated with single-scale and multi-scale models as environmental heterogeneity is varied. Models explaining the greatest variability in biological indices result from multi-scale combinations of physical descriptors. Results also indicate that substantial variation in benthic macroinvertebrate response can be explained with process-based watershed and valley scale metrics derived exclusively from common geospatial data. This study outlines a general framework for identifying key processes driving macroinvertebrate assemblages across a range of scales and establishing the geographic extent at which various levels of physical description best explain biological variability. Such information can guide process-based stratification to avoid spurious comparison of dissimilar stream types in bioassessments and ensure that key environmental gradients are adequately represented in sampling designs.

Seasonal to multi-decadal trends in apparent optical properties in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, James G.; Nelson, Norman B.; Siegel, David A.

2017-01-01

Multi-decadal, monthly observations of optical and biogeochemical properties, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ), and a proxy for its spectral shape reflect changes in phytoplankton and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) characteristics. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provide an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and decadal time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the magnitude and spectral shape proxy of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to available biological and optical data from the BATS time series program. The time series analyses reveal a 1.01%±0.18% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 443 nm over the upper 75 m of the water column while showing no significant change in selected spectral characteristics over the study period. These and other observations indicate that changes in phytoplankton rather than changes in CDOM abundance are the primary driver for the diffuse attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region. Our findings are inconsistent with previous decadal-scale global ocean water clarity and global satellite ocean color analyses yet are consistent with recent analyses of the BATS time series and highlight the value of long-term consistent observation at ocean time series sites.

Downscaling and hydrological uncertainties in 20th century hydrometeorological reconstructions over France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Caillouet, Laurie; Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Sauquet, Eric; Thirel, Guillaume; Graff, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The record length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years, which is not enough to properly explore the natural hydrometeorological variability, a key to better understand the effects of anthropogenic climate change. This work proposes a comparison of different hydrometeorological reconstruction datasets over France built on the downscaling of the NOAA 20th century global extended reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at assessing the uncertainties related to these reconstructions and improving our knowledge of the multi-decadal hydrometeorological variability over the 20th century. High-resolution daily meteorological reconstructions over the period 1871-2012 are obtained with two statistical downscaling methods based on the analogue approach: the deterministic ANALOG method (Dayon et al., 2015) and the probabilistic SCOPE method (Caillouet et al., 2016). These reconstructions are then used as forcings for the GR6J lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model and the SIM physically-based distributed hydrological model, in order to derive daily streamflow reconstructions over a set of around 70 reference near-natural catchments. Results show a large multi-decadal streamflow variability over the last 140 years, which is however relatively consistent over France. Empirical estimates of three types of uncertainty - structure of the downscaling method, small-scale internal variability, and hydrological model structure - show roughly equal contributions to the streamflow uncertainty at the annual time scale, with values as high as 20% of the interannual mean. Caillouet, L., Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., and Graff, B.: Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, Clim. Past, 12, 635-662, doi:10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, 2016. Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776, 2011. Dayon, G., Boé, J., and Martin, E.: Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022236, 2015.

Creation and validation of a novel body condition scoring method for the magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) in the zoo setting.

PubMed

Clements, Julie; Sanchez, Jessica N

2015-11-01

This research aims to validate a novel, visual body scoring system created for the Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) suitable for the zoo practitioner. Magellanics go through marked seasonal fluctuations in body mass gains and losses. A standardized multi-variable visual body condition guide may provide a more sensitive and objective assessment tool compared to the previously used single variable method. Accurate body condition scores paired with seasonal weight variation measurements give veterinary and keeper staff a clearer understanding of an individual's nutritional status. San Francisco Zoo staff previously used a nine-point body condition scale based on the classic bird standard of a single point of keel palpation with the bird restrained in hand, with no standard measure of reference assigned to each scoring category. We created a novel, visual body condition scoring system that does not require restraint to assesses subcutaneous fat and muscle at seven body landmarks using illustrations and descriptive terms. The scores range from one, the least robust or under-conditioned, to five, the most robust, or over-conditioned. The ratio of body weight to wing length was used as a "gold standard" index of body condition and compared to both the novel multi-variable and previously used single-variable body condition scores. The novel multi-variable scale showed improved agreement with weight:wing ratio compared to the single-variable scale, demonstrating greater accuracy, and reliability when a trained assessor uses the multi-variable body condition scoring system. Zoo staff may use this tool to manage both the colony and the individual to assist in seasonally appropriate Magellanic penguin nutrition assessment. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karamperidou, Christina; Engel, Victor; Lall, Upmanu; Stabenau, Erik; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

The climate of the last two millennia off Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrantes, Fatima; Rodrigues, Teresa; Rufino, Marta; Naughton, Filipa; Gil, Isabelle; Salgueiro, Emilia; Stroynowski, Zuzia; Santos, Celia; Oliveira, Dulce; Domingues, Sandra; Drago, Teresa; Mil-Homens, Mario

2017-04-01

More than global or hemispheric variability, regional scale climate conditions are the ones that are highly relevant to ecosystems and societies. The Iberian Peninsula, at mid-latitude and the western extreme of the European continent, is a key point for climate reconstructions. In this study we combine a multi-proxy analyses of six inner-shelf high-sedimentation sites covering the last 2 millennia, that span along the Iberian margin from 41° N to 36 °N. This approach provides a latitudinal perspective of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) evolution as well as information on the continental conditions (mainly precipitation) and marine primary production at multi-decadal scale. Furthermore, a regional stack was constructed and compared to North Hemisphere (NH) and global climatological series in order to investigate the role of external forcing on regional climate. Results show a temporal SST variability comparable with the NH and European mean atmospheric temperature records for the last 2 millennia, over a long-term cooling trend that ends at the beginning of the 20th century. Reconstructed cold conditions, with an average of 0.5 °C colder SST in the north and 1.2°C in the south, encompassing most of the 15th to the 19th century, characterizes the Little Ice Age (LIA). During the 20th century SSTs are equivalent to pre-LIA, but marked by higher amplitude decadal oscillations, in particular after 1970, within the Great Solar Maximum. Precipitation is high in the northern sites at the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period and during the LIA in all records. Strong precipitation/ flood events occur in good agreement with the Tagus basin terrace ages and historical documentation and at times of major shifts in solar activity. Primary production shows a southward decrease specially clear for the Algarve site and an important shift at AD 1800, when the opposing trend in the southern and north sites points to a general weakening in upwelling intensity in the north concomitant with an upwelling increase in the south.

Societal Impacts of Natural Decadal Climate Variability - The Pacemakers of Civilizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, V. M.

2017-12-01

Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) is one of the oldest areas of climate research. Building on centuries-long literature, a substantial body of research has emerged in the last two to three decades, focused on understanding causes, mechanisms, and impacts of DCV. Several DCV phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability (TAG for brevity), West Pacific Warm Pool variability, and decadal variability of El Niño-La Niña events - have been identified in observational records; and are associated with variability of worldwide atmospheric circulations, water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures; and oceanic circulations, salinity, and temperatures. Tree-ring based drought index data going back more than 700 years show presence of decadal hydrologic cycles (DHCs) in North America, Europe, and South Asia. Some of these cycles were associated with the rise and fall of civilizations, large-scale famines which killed millions of people, and acted as catalysts for socio-political revolutions. Instrument-measured data confirm presence of such worldwide DHCs associated with DCV phenomena; and show these DCV phenomena's worldwide impacts on river flows, crop productions, inland water-borne transportation, hydro-electricity generation, and agricultural irrigation. Fish catch data also show multiyear to decadal catch variability associated with these DCV phenomena in all oceans. This talk, drawn from my recently-published book (Mehta, V.M., 2017: Natural Decadal Climate Variability: Societal Impacts. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 326 pp.), will give an overview of worldwide impacts of DCV phenomena, with specific examples of socio-economic-political impacts. This talk will also describe national and international security implications of such societal impacts, and worldwide food security implications. The talk will end with an outline of needed actions to adapt to these impacts.

Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies which integrate multiple datasets (i.e. climate, fuels, topography, and ignition sources) to accurately estimate carbon emission from tundra burning and its global climate feedbacks in coming decades.

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qiu

Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

2016-06-02

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Tree-ring based reconstructions of interannual to decadal scale precipitation variability for northeastern Utah since 1226 A.D.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.T.; Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

Samples from 107 pin??on pines (Pinus edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single-year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent one of the wettest periods in the reconstruction. The proxy record indicates that the instrumental record (approximately 1900 to the Present) underestimates the potential frequency and severity of severe, sustained droughts in this area, while over representing the prominence of wet episodes. In the longer record, the empirical probability of any decadal scale drought exceeding the duration of the 1954 through 1964 drought is 94 percent, while the probability for any wet event exceeding the duration of the 1965 through 1999 wet spell is only 1 percent. Hence, estimates of future water availability in the Uinta Basin and forecasts for exports to the Colorado River, based on the 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000 "normal" periods, may be overly optimistic.

AERONET Version 3 Release: Providing Significant Improvements for Multi-Decadal Global Aerosol Database and Near Real-Time Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holben, Brent; Slutsker, Ilya; Giles, David; Eck, Thomas; Smirnov, Alexander; Sinyuk, Aliaksandr; Schafer, Joel; Sorokin, Mikhail; Rodriguez, Jon; Kraft, Jason;

Assessment of the Interactions Among Tropospheric Aerosol Loading, Radiative Balance and Clouds Through Examination of Their Multi-decadal Trends

EPA Science Inventory

While aerosol radiative effects have been recognized as some of the largest sources of uncertainty among the forcers of climate change, the verification of the spatial and temporal variability of aerosol radiative forcing has remained challenging. Anthropogenic emissions of prima...

Characterising Dynamic Instability in High Water-Cut Oil-Water Flows Using High-Resolution Microwave Sensor Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Weixin; Jin, Ningde; Han, Yunfeng; Ma, Jing

2018-06-01

In the present study, multi-scale entropy algorithm was used to characterise the complex flow phenomena of turbulent droplets in high water-cut oil-water two-phase flow. First, we compared multi-scale weighted permutation entropy (MWPE), multi-scale approximate entropy (MAE), multi-scale sample entropy (MSE) and multi-scale complexity measure (MCM) for typical nonlinear systems. The results show that MWPE presents satisfied variability with scale and anti-noise ability. Accordingly, we conducted an experiment of vertical upward oil-water two-phase flow with high water-cut and collected the signals of a high-resolution microwave resonant sensor, based on which two indexes, the entropy rate and mean value of MWPE, were extracted. Besides, the effects of total flow rate and water-cut on these two indexes were analysed. Our researches show that MWPE is an effective method to uncover the dynamic instability of oil-water two-phase flow with high water-cut.

Users matter : multi-agent systems model of high performance computing cluster users.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

North, M. J.; Hood, C. S.; Decision and Information Sciences

2005-01-01

High performance computing clusters have been a critical resource for computational science for over a decade and have more recently become integral to large-scale industrial analysis. Despite their well-specified components, the aggregate behavior of clusters is poorly understood. The difficulties arise from complicated interactions between cluster components during operation. These interactions have been studied by many researchers, some of whom have identified the need for holistic multi-scale modeling that simultaneously includes network level, operating system level, process level, and user level behaviors. Each of these levels presents its own modeling challenges, but the user level is the most complex duemore » to the adaptability of human beings. In this vein, there are several major user modeling goals, namely descriptive modeling, predictive modeling and automated weakness discovery. This study shows how multi-agent techniques were used to simulate a large-scale computing cluster at each of these levels.« less

Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1999-01-01

Changing patterns of correlations between the historical average June-November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and October-March precipitation totals for 84 climate divisions in the western US indicate a large amount of variability in SOI/precipitation relations on decadal time scales. Correlations of western US precipitation with SOI and other indices of tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes were much weaker from 1920 to 1950 than during recent decades. This variability in teleconnections is associated with the character of tropical air-sea interactions as indexed by the number of out-of-phase SOI/tropical sea surface temperature (SST) episodes, and with decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western US are strong when SOI and NINO3 are out-of-phase and PDO is negative. ENSO teleconnections are weak when SOI and NINO3 are weakly correlated and PDO is positive. Decadal modes of tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability are important indicators of periods when ENSO indices, like SOI, can be used as reliable predictors of winter precipitation in the US.

Evaluation of Scale Reliability with Binary Measures Using Latent Variable Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2010-01-01

A method for interval estimation of scale reliability with discrete data is outlined. The approach is applicable with multi-item instruments consisting of binary measures, and is developed within the latent variable modeling methodology. The procedure is useful for evaluation of consistency of single measures and of sum scores from item sets…

Large-Scale, Parallel, Multi-Sensor Atmospheric Data Fusion Using Cloud Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Hua, H.; Fetzer, E.

2013-05-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over decades. Moving to multi-sensor, long-duration analyses of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over 10 years of data. To efficiently assemble such datasets, we are utilizing Elastic Computing in the Cloud and parallel map/reduce-based algorithms. However, these problems are Data Intensive computing so the data transfer times and storage costs (for caching) are key issues. SciReduce is a Hadoop-like parallel analysis system, programmed in parallel python, that is designed from the ground up for Earth science. SciReduce executes inside VMWare images and scales to any number of nodes in the Cloud. Unlike Hadoop, SciReduce operates on bundles of named numeric arrays, which can be passed in memory or serialized to disk in netCDF4 or HDF5. Figure 1 shows the architecture of the full computational system, with SciReduce at the core. Multi-year datasets are automatically "sharded" by time and space across a cluster of nodes so that years of data (millions of files) can be processed in a massively parallel way. Input variables (arrays) are pulled on-demand into the Cloud using OPeNDAP URLs or other subsetting services, thereby minimizing the size of the cached input and intermediate datasets. We are using SciReduce to automate the production of multiple versions of a ten-year A-Train water vapor climatology under a NASA MEASURES grant. We will present the architecture of SciReduce, describe the achieved "clock time" speedups in fusing datasets on our own nodes and in the Cloud, and discuss the Cloud cost tradeoffs for storage, compute, and data transfer. We will also present a concept/prototype for staging NASA's A-Train Atmospheric datasets (Levels 2 & 3) in the Amazon Cloud so that any number of compute jobs can be executed "near" the multi-sensor data. Given such a system, multi-sensor climate studies over 10-20 years of data could be performed in an efficient way, with the researcher paying only his own Cloud compute bill.; Figure 1 -- Architecture.

Large-Scale, Parallel, Multi-Sensor Atmospheric Data Fusion Using Cloud Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Hua, H.; Fetzer, E. J.

2013-12-01

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the 'A-Train' platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over decades. Moving to multi-sensor, long-duration analyses of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another (MODIS), and to a model (MERRA), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the 'cloud scenes' from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over 10 years of data. To efficiently assemble such datasets, we are utilizing Elastic Computing in the Cloud and parallel map/reduce-based algorithms. However, these problems are Data Intensive computing so the data transfer times and storage costs (for caching) are key issues. SciReduce is a Hadoop-like parallel analysis system, programmed in parallel python, that is designed from the ground up for Earth science. SciReduce executes inside VMWare images and scales to any number of nodes in the Cloud. Unlike Hadoop, SciReduce operates on bundles of named numeric arrays, which can be passed in memory or serialized to disk in netCDF4 or HDF5. Figure 1 shows the architecture of the full computational system, with SciReduce at the core. Multi-year datasets are automatically 'sharded' by time and space across a cluster of nodes so that years of data (millions of files) can be processed in a massively parallel way. Input variables (arrays) are pulled on-demand into the Cloud using OPeNDAP URLs or other subsetting services, thereby minimizing the size of the cached input and intermediate datasets. We are using SciReduce to automate the production of multiple versions of a ten-year A-Train water vapor climatology under a NASA MEASURES grant. We will present the architecture of SciReduce, describe the achieved 'clock time' speedups in fusing datasets on our own compute nodes and in the public Cloud, and discuss the Cloud cost tradeoffs for storage, compute, and data transfer. We will also present a concept/prototype for staging NASA's A-Train Atmospheric datasets (Levels 2 & 3) in the Amazon Cloud so that any number of compute jobs can be executed 'near' the multi-sensor data. Given such a system, multi-sensor climate studies over 10-20 years of data could be performed in an efficient way, with the researcher paying only his own Cloud compute bill. SciReduce Architecture

Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

Community benthic paleoecology from high-resolution climate records: Mollusca and foraminifera in post-glacial environments of the California margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhre, Sarah E.; Kroeker, Kristy J.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter; Kennett, James P.

2017-01-01

Paleoecological reconstructions of past climate are often based on a single taxonomic group with a consistent presence. Less is known about the relationship between multi-taxon community-wide change and climate variability. Here we reconstruct paleoecological change in a Late Quaternary (16.1-3.4 ka) sediment core from the California margin (418 m below sea level) of Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), USA, using Mollusca (Animalia) and Foraminifera (Rhizaria) microfossils. Building upon previous investigations, we use multivariate ordination and cluster analyses to interpret community-scale changes in these distinctly different taxonomic groups across discrete climate episodes. The strongest differences between seafloor biological communities occurred between glacial (prior to Termination IA, 14.7 ka) and interglacial climate episodes. Holocene communities were well partitioned, indicating that sub-millennial oceanographic variability was recorded by these microfossils. We document strong evidence of chemosynthetic trophic webs and sulfidic environments (from gastropod Alia permodesta and bivalve Lucinoma aequizonata), which characterized restricted intervals previously interpreted as well oxygenated (such as the Pre-Bølling Warming). Mollusc records indicate first-order trophic energetic shifts between detrital and chemosynthetically-fixed carbon. Molluscs associated with widely different physiological preferences occur here within single, decadal intervals of sediment, and as such mollusc assemblages may reflect significant inter-decadal oceanographic variability. Foraminifera assemblages provide exceptional records of the sequential, chronological progression of the deglacial climatic and oceanographic events, whereas mollusc assemblages reflect non-chronological similarities in reoccurring communities. Foraminifera taxa that drive community similarity here are also independently recognized as marker species for seafloor hypoxia regimes, which provides support for the idea that oxygenation change is a principal driver of seafloor environmental variability.

Forest dynamics in the temperate rainforests of Alaska: from individual tree to regional scales

Treesearch

Tara M. Barrett

2015-01-01

Analysis of remeasurement data from 1079 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots revealed multi-scale change occurring in the temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska. In the western half of the region, including Prince William Sound, aboveground live tree biomass and carbon are increasing at a rate of 8 ( ± 2 ) percent per decade, driven by an increase in Sitka...

Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A. P.; Blaker, A. T.; New, A. L.

2012-08-01

A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15-30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.

Multi-Scale Microstructural Thermoelectric Materials: Transport Behavior, Non-Equilibrium Preparation, and Applications.

PubMed

Su, Xianli; Wei, Ping; Li, Han; Liu, Wei; Yan, Yonggao; Li, Peng; Su, Chuqi; Xie, Changjun; Zhao, Wenyu; Zhai, Pengcheng; Zhang, Qingjie; Tang, Xinfeng; Uher, Ctirad

2017-05-01

Considering only about one third of the world's energy consumption is effectively utilized for functional uses, and the remaining is dissipated as waste heat, thermoelectric (TE) materials, which offer a direct and clean thermal-to-electric conversion pathway, have generated a tremendous worldwide interest. The last two decades have witnessed a remarkable development in TE materials. This Review summarizes the efforts devoted to the study of non-equilibrium synthesis of TE materials with multi-scale structures, their transport behavior, and areas of applications. Studies that work towards the ultimate goal of developing highly efficient TE materials possessing multi-scale architectures are highlighted, encompassing the optimization of TE performance via engineering the structures with different dimensional aspects spanning from the atomic and molecular scales, to nanometer sizes, and to the mesoscale. In consideration of the practical applications of high-performance TE materials, the non-equilibrium approaches offer a fast and controllable fabrication of multi-scale microstructures, and their scale up to industrial-size manufacturing is emphasized here. Finally, the design of two integrated power generating TE systems are described-a solar thermoelectric-photovoltaic hybrid system and a vehicle waste heat harvesting system-that represent perhaps the most important applications of thermoelectricity in the energy conversion area. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Physical and biogeochemical variability in Todos Santos Bay, northwestern Baja California, derived from a numerical NPZD model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Rico, Jorge; Rivas, David

2018-07-01

A physical-biogeochemical Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) numerical model is used to study the variability of coastal phytoplankton biomass in northwestern Baja California and the Todos Santos Bay (TSB), a region of high socioeconomic importance located in the southern California Current System. The model reproduces adequately the most important oceanographic features of the study area, like the coastal chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) maxima and thermal gradients in the regions of enhanced coastal upwelling. The variability of Chl-a in the TSB is influenced by the activity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and decadal modes of the Pacific, e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). From de multi-year model simulation (2004-2011), this large-scale influence is remarkable in two contrasting anomalous years. The year 2006 was anomalously warm and with low Chl-a levels, associated with warm phases of ENSO and PDO and a weakening of the NPGO. These climatic anomalies caused a strong stratification and weak upwelling around the TSB, which induced a poor nutrient input into the Bay and a deep and weak subsurface Chl-a maximum (SCM) during summer. The year 2011, on the other hand, was a cold year with enhanced upwelling during the spring, associated with cold phases of ENSO and PDO and an intensification of the NPGO. These conditions also caused a weak stratification and an intense nutrient transport into the TSB and hence a shallower and stronger SCM.

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model performance. Results were analyzed at three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed in the modeling work. The sensitivity of the model to small-scale rainfall variability was discussed as well.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Analysis of Decadal Vegetation Dynamics Using Multi-Scale Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Y.; Chen, K.

2013-12-01

This study aims at quantifying vegetation fractional cover (VFC) by incorporating multi-resolution satellite images, including Formosat-2(RSI), SPOT(HRV/HRG), Landsat (MSS/TM) and Terra/Aqua(MODIS), to investigate long-term and seasonal vegetation dynamics in Taiwan. We used 40-year NDVI records for derivation of VFC, with field campaigns routinely conducted to calibrate the critical NDVI threshold. Given different sensor capabilities in terms of their spatial and spectral properties, translation and infusion of NDVIs was used to assure NDVI coherence and to determine the fraction of vegetation cover at different spatio-temporal scales. Based on the proposed method, a bimodal sequence of intra-annual VFC which corresponds to the dual-cropping agriculture pattern was observed. Compared to seasonal VFC variation (78~90%), decadal VFC reveals moderate oscillations (81~86%), which were strongly linked with landuse changes and several major disturbances. This time-series mapping of VFC can be used to examine vegetation dynamics and its response associated with short-term and long-term anthropogenic/natural events.

Multi-group acculturation orientations in a changing context: Palestinian Christian Arab adolescents in Israel after the lost decade.

PubMed

Munayer, Salim J; Horenczyk, Gabriel

2014-10-01

Grounded in a contextual approach to acculturation of minorities, this study examines changes in acculturation orientations among Palestinian Christian Arab adolescents in Israel following the "lost decade of Arab-Jewish coexistence." Multi-group acculturation orientations among 237 respondents were assessed vis-à-vis two majorities--Muslim Arabs and Israeli Jews--and compared to 1998 data. Separation was the strongest endorsed orientation towards both majority groups. Comparisons with the 1998 data also show a weakening of the Integration attitude towards Israeli Jews, and also distancing from Muslim Arabs. For the examination of the "Westernisation" hypothesis, multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analyses of perceptions of Self and group values clearly showed that, after 10 years, Palestinian Christian Arabs perceive Israeli Jewish culture as less close to Western culture, and that Self and the Christian Arab group have become much closer, suggesting an increasing identification of Palestinian Christian Arab adolescents with their ethnoreligious culture. We discuss the value of a multi-group, multi-method, and multi-wave approach to the examination of the role of the political context in acculturation processes. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

Generalized Radiative Transfer as an Efficient Computational Tool for Spatial and/or Spectral Integration over Unresolved Variability in Multi-Angle Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. B.; Xu, F.; Diner, D. J.

2017-12-01

Two perennial problems in applied theoretical and computational radiative transfer (RT) are: (1) the impact of unresolved spatial variability on large-scale fluxes (in climate models) or radiances (in remote sensing); and (2) efficient-yet-accurate estimation of broadband spectral integrals in radiant energy budget estimation as well as in remote sensing, in particular, of trace gases.Generalized RT (GRT) is a modification of classic RT in an optical medium with uniform extinction where Beer's exponential law for direct transmission is replaced by a monotonically decreasing function with a slower power-law decay. In a convenient parameterized version of GRT, mean extinction replaces the uniform value and just one new property is introduced. As a non-dimensional metric for the unresolved variability, we use the square of the mean extinction coefficient divided by its variance. This parameter is also the exponent of the power-law tail of the modified transmission law.This specific form of sub-exponential transmission has explored for almost two decades in application to spatial variability in the presence of long-range correlations, much like in turbulent media such as clouds, with a focus on multiple scattering. It has also been proposed by Conley and Collins (JQSRT, 112, 1525-, 2011) to improve on the standard (weak-line) implementation of the correlated-k technique for efficient spectral integration.We have merged these two applications within a rigorous formulation of the combined problem, and solve the new integral RT equations in the single-scattering limit. The result is illustrated by addressing practical problems in multi-angle remote sensing of aerosols using the O2 A-band, an emerging methodology for passive profiling of coarse aerosols and clouds.

Woody vegetation die off and regeneration in response to rainfall variability in the west African Sahel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, Martin; Tappan, G. Gray; Aziz Diouf, Abdoul; Beye, Gora; Mbow, Cheikh; Fensholt, Rasmus

2017-01-01

The greening in the Senegalese Sahel has been linked to an increase in net primary productivity, with significant long-term trends being closely related to the woody strata. This study investigates woody plant growth and mortality within greening areas in the pastoral areas of Senegal, and how these dynamics are linked to species diversity, climate, soil and human management. We analyse woody cover dynamics by means of multi-temporal and multi-scale Earth Observation, satellite based rainfall and in situ data sets covering the period 1994 to 2015. We find that favourable conditions (forest reserves, low human population density, sufficient rainfall) led to a rapid growth of Combretaceae and Balanites aegyptiaca between 2000 and 2013 with an average increase of 4% woody cover. However, the increasing dominance and low drought resistance of drought prone species bears the risk of substantial woody cover losses following drought years. This was observed in 2014–2015, with a die off of Guiera senegalensis in most places of the study area. We show that woody cover and woody cover trends are closely related to mean annual rainfall, but no clear relationship with rainfall trends was found over the entire study period. The observed spatial and temporal variation contrasts with the simplified labels of “greening” or “degradation”. While in principal a low woody plant diversity negatively impacts regional resilience, the Sahelian system is showing signs of resilience at decadal time scales through widespread increases in woody cover and high regeneration rates after periodic droughts. We have reaffirmed that the woody cover in Sahel responds to its inherent climatic variability and does not follow a linear trend.

Spatio-temporal error growth in the multi-scale Lorenz'96 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, S.; Fernández, J.; Rodríguez, M. A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2010-07-01

The influence of multiple spatio-temporal scales on the error growth and predictability of atmospheric flows is analyzed throughout the paper. To this aim, we consider the two-scale Lorenz'96 model and study the interplay of the slow and fast variables on the error growth dynamics. It is shown that when the coupling between slow and fast variables is weak the slow variables dominate the evolution of fluctuations whereas in the case of strong coupling the fast variables impose a non-trivial complex error growth pattern on the slow variables with two different regimes, before and after saturation of fast variables. This complex behavior is analyzed using the recently introduced Mean-Variance Logarithmic (MVL) diagram.

Fire-induced changes in boreal forest canopy volume and soil organic matter from multi-temporal airborne lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonzo, M.; Cook, B.; Andersen, H. E.; Babcock, C. R.; Morton, D. C.

2016-12-01

Fire in boreal forests initiates a cascade of biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Over typical fire return intervals, net radiative forcing from boreal forest fires depends on the offsetting impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and post-fire changes in land surface albedo. Whether boreal forest fires warm or cool the climate over these multi-decadal intervals depends on the magnitude of fire emissions and the time scales of decomposition, albedo changes, and forest regrowth. Our understanding of vegetation and surface organic matter (SOM) changes from boreal forest fires is shaped by field measurements and moderate resolution remote sensing data. Intensive field plot measurements offer detailed data on overstory, understory, and SOM changes from fire, but sparse plot data can be difficult to extend across the heterogeneous boreal forest landscape. Conversely, satellite measurements of burn severity are spatially extensive but only provide proxy measures of fire effects. In this research, we seek to bridge the scale gap between existing intensive and extensive methods using a combination of airborne lidar data and time series of Landsat data to evaluate pre- and post-fire conditions across Alaska's Kenai Peninsula. Lidar-based estimates of pre-fire stand structure and composition were essential to characterize the loss of canopy volume from fires between 2001 and 2014, quantify transitions from live to dead standing carbon pools, and isolate vegetation recovery following fire over 1 to 13 year time scales. Results from this study demonstrate the utility of lidar for estimating pre-fire structure and species composition at the scale of individual tree crowns. Multi-temporal airborne lidar data also provide essential insights regarding the heterogeneity of canopy and SOM losses at a sub-Landsat pixel scale. Fire effects are forest-structure and species dependent with variable temporal lags in carbon release due to delayed mortality (>5 years post fire) and standing dead trees. Establishing the spatial and temporal scales of canopy structural change will aid in constraining estimates of net radiative forcing from both carbon release and albedo in the years following fire.

Optimal ranking regime analysis of intra- to multidecadal U.S. climate variability. Part I: Temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Optimal Ranking Regime (ORR) method was used to identify intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output – a time series’ most significant non-overlapping periods of high o...

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrafesa, L. J.

2017-12-01

We study Non-Stationary, Non-Linear time series of global surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, and via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the buried, internal modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 167 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, both in the ocean and the atmosphere over land, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-year, decadal, multi-decadal, centennial and overall warming trends in the ocean, atmosphere and the combination therein. The oceanic rate of warming is less than two thirds of that of the atmosphere. While our findings on overall trends of fossil fuel burning and planetary temperatures are only visually correlative, by employing a mathematical methodology well known in ergonomics, this study causally links the upward rise in planetary surface temperature from the latter part of the 19th Century and into the 21st Century, to the contemporaneous upward rise in fossil fuel burning and suggests that if present fossil fuel burning is not curtailed there will be continued warming of the planet in the future.

Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less

The role of alpha-rhythm states in perceptual learning: insights from experiments and computational models

PubMed Central

Sigala, Rodrigo; Haufe, Sebastian; Roy, Dipanjan; Dinse, Hubert R.; Ritter, Petra

2014-01-01

During the past two decades growing evidence indicates that brain oscillations in the alpha band (~10 Hz) not only reflect an “idle” state of cortical activity, but also take a more active role in the generation of complex cognitive functions. A recent study shows that more than 60% of the observed inter-subject variability in perceptual learning can be ascribed to ongoing alpha activity. This evidence indicates a significant role of alpha oscillations for perceptual learning and hence motivates to explore the potential underlying mechanisms. Hence, it is the purpose of this review to highlight existent evidence that ascribes intrinsic alpha oscillations a role in shaping our ability to learn. In the review, we disentangle the alpha rhythm into different neural signatures that control information processing within individual functional building blocks of perceptual learning. We further highlight computational studies that shed light on potential mechanisms regarding how alpha oscillations may modulate information transfer and connectivity changes relevant for learning. To enable testing of those model based hypotheses, we emphasize the need for multidisciplinary approaches combining assessment of behavior and multi-scale neuronal activity, active modulation of ongoing brain states and computational modeling to reveal the mathematical principles of the complex neuronal interactions. In particular we highlight the relevance of multi-scale modeling frameworks such as the one currently being developed by “The Virtual Brain” project. PMID:24772077

Intra- and inter-population variability and evaluation of the physical development of a young generation.

PubMed

Yampolskaya, Yulia A

2005-07-01

This study is concerned with long-term anthropometric examinations of children and adolescents aged 3-17 years in Moscow (over 10,500 persons, longitudinal and cross-sectional). Population variability of physical development was analyzed by means of regional estimation tables, which were developed on the basis of a regression analysis (scale of the regression of body mass to body length within a range from M - 1sigmaR to M + 2 sigmaR) and used for individual and group diagnostics taking into account age and sex. Such an approach allowed for the determination of the dynamics of the variability of Moscow schoolchildren from decade to decade (inter-population variability) and variations due to social differences (intra-population variability).

Demonstration of SST value as EBVs descriptor in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Taramelli, A.

2017-12-01

Sea Surface Temperature is an Essential Climate and Ocean Variable (ECV - EOV) able to capture critical scales in the seascape warming patterns and to highlight the exceeding of thresholds. This presentation addresses the changes of the SST in the last three decades over the Mediterranean Sea, a "Large Marine Ecosystem (LME)", in order to speculate the value of such powerful variable, as proxy for the assessment of ecosystem state in terms of ecosystem structures, functions and composition key descriptor. Time series of daily SST for the period 1982-2016, estimated from multi-sensor satellite data and provided by Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS-EU) are used to perform different statistical analysis on common fish species. Results highlight the critical conditions, the general trends as well as the spatial and temporal patterns, in terms of thermal growth, vitality and stress influence on selected fish species. Results confirm a constant increasing trend in SST with an average rise of 1.4° C in the past thirty years. The variance associated to the average trend is not constant across the entire Mediterranean Sea opening the way to multiple scenarios for fish growth and vitality in the diverse sub-basins. A major effort is oriented in addressing the cross-scale ecological interactions to assess the feasibility of using SST as descriptor for Essential Biodiversity Variables, able to prioritize areas and to feed operational tools for planning and management in the Mediterranean LME.

Non-Gaussian Multi-resolution Modeling of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, M.; Paul, D.; Lee, T. C. M.; Matsuo, T.

2016-12-01

The most dynamic coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere occurs in the Earth's polar atmosphere. Our objective is to model scale-dependent stochastic characteristics of high-latitude ionospheric electric fields that originate from solar wind magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions. The Earth's high-latitude ionospheric electric field exhibits considerable variability, with increasing non-Gaussian characteristics at decreasing spatio-temporal scales. Accurately representing the underlying stochastic physical process through random field modeling is crucial not only for scientific understanding of the energy, momentum and mass exchanges between the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, but also for modern technological systems including telecommunication, navigation, positioning and satellite tracking. While a lot of efforts have been made to characterize the large-scale variability of the electric field in the context of Gaussian processes, no attempt has been made so far to model the small-scale non-Gaussian stochastic process observed in the high-latitude ionosphere. We construct a novel random field model using spherical needlets as building blocks. The double localization of spherical needlets in both spatial and frequency domains enables the model to capture the non-Gaussian and multi-resolutional characteristics of the small-scale variability. The estimation procedure is computationally feasible due to the utilization of an adaptive Gibbs sampler. We apply the proposed methodology to the computational simulation output from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) magnetosphere model. Our non-Gaussian multi-resolution model results in characterizing significantly more energy associated with the small-scale ionospheric electric field variability in comparison to Gaussian models. By accurately representing unaccounted-for additional energy and momentum sources to the Earth's upper atmosphere, our novel random field modeling approach will provide a viable remedy to the current numerical models' systematic biases resulting from the underestimation of high-latitude energy and momentum sources.

Radio Videos of Orion Protostars (with X-ray Colors!)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbrich, Jan; Wolk, Scott; Menten, Karl; Reid, Mark; Osten, Rachel

2013-07-01

High-energy processes in Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) can be observed both in X-rays and in the centimetric radio wavelength range. While the past decade has brought a lot of progress in the field of X-ray observations of YSOs, (proto)stellar centimetric radio astronomy has only recently begun to catch up with the advent of the newly expanded Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (JVLA). The enhanced sensitivity is fundamentally improving our understanding of YSO radio properties by providing unprecedented sensitivity and thus spectral as well as temporal resolution. As a result, it is becoming easier to disentangle coronal-type nonthermal radio emission emanating from the immediate vicinity of YSOs from thermal emission on larger spatial scales, for example ionized material at the base of outflows. Of particular interest is the correlation of the by now relatively well-characterized X-ray flaring variability with the nonthermal radio variability. We present first results of multi-epoch simultaneous observations using Chandra and the JVLA, targeting the Orion Nebula Cluster and highlighting the capabilities of the JVLA for radio continuum observations of YSOs.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

2017-12-01

This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

Application of multi-scale wavelet entropy and multi-resolution Volterra models for climatic downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sehgal, V.; Lakhanpal, A.; Maheswaran, R.; Khosa, R.; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-01-01

This study proposes a wavelet-based multi-resolution modeling approach for statistical downscaling of GCM variables to mean monthly precipitation for five locations at Krishna Basin, India. Climatic dataset from NCEP is used for training the proposed models (Jan.'69 to Dec.'94) and are applied to corresponding CanCM4 GCM variables to simulate precipitation for the validation (Jan.'95-Dec.'05) and forecast (Jan.'06-Dec.'35) periods. The observed precipitation data is obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product at 0.25 degree spatial resolution. This paper proposes a novel Multi-Scale Wavelet Entropy (MWE) based approach for clustering climatic variables into suitable clusters using k-means methodology. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to obtain the representative Principal Components (PC) explaining 90-95% variance for each cluster. A multi-resolution non-linear approach combining Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Second Order Volterra (SoV) is used to model the representative PCs to obtain the downscaled precipitation for each downscaling location (W-P-SoV model). The results establish that wavelet-based multi-resolution SoV models perform significantly better compared to the traditional Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) based frameworks. It is observed that the proposed MWE-based clustering and subsequent PCA, helps reduce the dimensionality of the input climatic variables, while capturing more variability compared to stand-alone k-means (no MWE). The proposed models perform better in estimating the number of precipitation events during the non-monsoon periods whereas the models with clustering without MWE over-estimate the rainfall during the dry season.

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

Multi-decadal Variability of the Wind Power Output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner Bossi, Nicolas; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Prieto, Luis; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the long-term wind power variability is essential to provide a realistic outlook on the power output during the lifetime of a planned wind power project. In this work, the Power Output (Po) of a market wind turbine is simulated with a daily resolution for the period 1871-2009 at two different locations in Spain, one at the Central Iberian Plateau and another at the Gibraltar Strait Area. This is attained through a statistical downscaling of the daily wind conditions. It implements a Greedy Algorithm as classificator of a geostrophic-based wind predictor, which is derived by considering the SLP daily field from the 56 ensemble members of the longest homogeneous reanalysis available (20CR, 1871-2009). For calibration and validation purposes we use 10 years of wind observations (the predictand) at both sites. As a result, a series of 139 annual wind speed Probability Density Functions (PDF) are obtained, with a good performance in terms of wind speed uncertainty reduction (average daily wind speed MAE=1.48 m/s). The obtained centennial series allow to investigate the multi-decadal variability of wind power from different points of view. Significant periodicities around the 25-yr frequency band, as well as long-term linear trends are detected at both locations. In addition, a negative correlation is found between annual Po at both locations, evidencing the differences in the dynamical mechanisms ruling them (and possible complementary behavior). Furthermore, the impact that the three leading large-scale circulation patterns over Iberia (NAO, EA and SCAND) exert over wind power output is evaluated. Results show distinct (and non-stationary) couplings to these forcings depending on the geographical position and season or month. Moreover, significant non-stationary correlations are observed with the slow varying Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index for both case studies. Finally, an empirical relationship is explored between the annual Po and the parameters of the Weibull PDF. This allowed us to derive a linear model to estimate the annual power output from those parameters, which results especially useful when no wind power data is available.

Multi-Decadal Averages of Basal Melt for Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica Using Airborne Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, I.; Bell, R. E.; Tinto, K. J.; Frearson, N.; Kingslake, J.; Padman, L.; Siddoway, C. S.; Fricker, H. A.

2017-12-01

Changes in ice shelf mass balance are key to the long term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although the most extensive ice shelf mass loss currently is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, many other ice shelves experience changes in thickness on time scales from annual to ice age cycles. Here, we focus on the Ross Ice Shelf. An 18-year record (1994-2012) of satellite radar altimetry shows substantial variability in Ross Ice Shelf height on interannual time scales, complicating detection of potential long-term climate-change signals in the mass budget of this ice shelf. Variability of radar signal penetration into the ice-shelf surface snow and firn layers further complicates assessment of mass changes. We investigate Ross Ice Shelf mass balance using aerogeophysical data from the ROSETTA-Ice surveys using IcePod. We use two ice-penetrating radars; a 2 GHz unit that images fine-structure in the upper 400 m of the ice surface and a 360 MHz radar to identify the ice shelf base. We have identified internal layers that are continuous along flow from the grounding line to the ice shelf front. Based on layer continuity, we conclude that these layers must be the horizons between the continental ice of the outlet glaciers and snow accumulation once the ice is afloat. We use the Lagrangian change in thickness of these layers, after correcting for strain rates derived using modern day InSAR velocities, to estimate multidecadal averaged basal melt rates. This method provides a novel way to quantify basal melt, avoiding the confounding impacts of spatial and short-timescale variability in surface accumulation and firn densification processes. Our estimates show elevated basal melt rates (> -1m/yr) around Byrd and Mullock glaciers within 100 km from the ice shelf front. We also compare modern InSAR velocity derived strain rates with estimates from the comprehensive ground-based RIGGS observations during 1973-1978 to estimate the potential magnitude of strain-driven thickness changes over four decades. Combining maps of basal melt rate with radar derived basal reflectivity, we identify regions that are undergoing melting and freezing and provide a comprehensive understanding of how ocean processes may be changing the base of Ross Ice Shelf in recent decades.

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Modeling the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in O3 Distributions

EPA Science Inventory

We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine the influence of long-range pollutant transport on trends in surface level O3 distributions. The WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and multi-decadal model simulations were...

The Need for a Harmonized Repository for Next-Generation Human Activity Data

EPA Science Inventory

Multi-tiered human time-activity-location data can inform many efforts to describe human exposures to air pollutants and other chemicals on a range of temporal and spatial scales. In the last decade, EPA's Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD) has served as a harmonized rep...

Reconstructing the backbone of the Saccharomycotina yeast phylogeny using genome-scale data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the phylogenetic relationships among the yeasts of the subphylum Saccharomycotina is a prerequisite for understanding the evolution of their metabolisms and ecological lifestyles. In the last two decades, the use of rDNA and multi-locus data sets has greatly advanced our understanding ...

Findings from a Multi-Year Scale-up Effectiveness Trial of Everyday Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaden-Kiernan, Michael; Borman, Geoffrey; Caverly, Sarah; Bell, Nance; Ruiz de Castilla, Veronica; Sullivan, Kate; Rodriguez, Debra

2015-01-01

This study addresses the effectiveness of "Everyday Mathematics" (EM), a widely used core mathematics curriculum that reflects over two decades of National Science Foundation (NSF)-sponsored research and development studies (Klein, 2007; National Research Council, 2004) and aligns well with recommended policies and practices by the…

Determining the Effect of the Lunar Nodal Cycle on Tidal Mixing and North Pacific Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, D. J.; Schmittner, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Norton, N. J.; Müller, M.

2016-02-01

Oscillations in the moon's orbit around the earth modulate regional tidal dissipation with a periodicity of 18.6 years. In regions where the diurnal tidal constituents dominate diapycnal mixing, this Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC) may be significant enough to influence ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and climate variability. Such periodicity in the LNC as an external forcing may provide a mechanistic source for Pacific decadal variability (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) where diurnal tidal constituents are strong. We have introduced three enhancements to the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better simulate tidal-forced mixing. First, we have produced a sub-grid scale bathymetry scheme that better resolves the vertical distribution of the barotropic energy flux in regions where the native CESM grid does not resolve high spatial-scale bathymetric features. Second, we test a number of alternative barotropic tidal constituent energy flux fields that are derived from various satellite altimeter observations and tidal models. Third, we introduce modulations of the individual diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal constituents, ranging from monthly to decadal periods, as derived from the full lunisolar tidal potential. Using both ocean-only and fully-coupled configurations, we test the influence of these enhancements, particularly the LNC modulations, on ocean mixing and bidecadal climate variability in CESM.

Changing climate in the Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lluch-Cota, Salvador E.; Parés-Sierra, Alejandro; Magaña-Rueda, Víctor O.; Arreguín-Sánchez, Francisco; Bazzino, Gastón; Herrera-Cervantes, Hugo; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

2010-10-01

We conducted a four year interdisciplinary collaborative project focused in the Gulf of California, the most important fishing region for Mexico. We reviewed published reports, collected and analyzed physical, chemical and ecological data sets, and developed models for the physical (atmosphere and ocean) and ecological components of this large marine ecosystem, to examine prevalent scientific questions regarding climate variability and change in the region, covering three time scales (ENSO, decadal-to-interdecadal, and long-term trend). We were able to describe how the Gulf of California influences the northward propagation of coastal trapped Kelvin waves associated with El Niño (ENSO) events, and how this signal, together with changes in the atmospheric forcing, results in a ENSO signature inside the Gulf. For the decadal-to-multidecadal scales, we found coherent trends among series, and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The long-term temperature signal for the Gulf of California shows a warming that occurred in the mid 20th century, approximately a decade before that in the California Current. This signal is coherent with fluctuations in the industrial fisheries catch records (sardine and shrimps). For the recent decades we found no significant sustained long-term trend in any of the time series of physical and ecological variables that we considered. Instead, variability seems to be fully dominated by the interaction of PDO and ENSO. We stress the urgent need for more modeling efforts and the establishment of interdisciplinary (physical and biological) observation platforms for the marine environment in the Gulf of California.

Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanimoto, Youichi; Hanawa, Kimio; Toba, Yoshiaki

1993-06-01

It is unclear whether the recent increases in global temperatures are really due to the increase of greenhouse gases or are a manifestation of natural variability. Temporal evolution and spectral structure of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific over the last 37 years are investigated on the three characteristic time scales: shorter than 24 months (HF), 24-60 months (ES), and longer than 60 months (DC). The leading empirical-orthogonal function (EOF) for the DC time scale is characterized by a zonally elongated monopole centered at around 40[degrees]N, 180[degrees]. The leading EOF for the HF time scale is somewhatmore » similar to that for the DC time scale, although there are two centers of action with the same polarity at the mid and western Pacific. The leading EOF for the ES time scale, however, exhibits a different pattern whose center of action at the mid Pacific is located farther southeastward. In the time evolution of the SST anomalies associated with the leading EOF of the DC time scale, several anomaly periods can be identified that last five years or longer. The transition from a persistent period to another with the opposite polarity is generally very brief, except for the one that lasts throughout the late 1960s. The EOF analysis was repeated separately on these persistent anomaly periods and the long transition period. The spatial structure of the leading EOF of the SST variability with the ES time scale is found to be sensitive to the polarity of the decadal anomaly. These results are suggestive of the possible influence of the decadal SST variability upon the spatial structure of the variability with shorter time scales. 31 refs., 8 figs.« less

Investigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Surface, Airborne, and Satellite on Local to Continental-Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leifer, I.; Tratt, D. M.; Egland, E. T.; Gerilowski, K.; Vigil, S. A.; Buchwitz, M.; Krings, T.; Bovensmann, H.; Krautwurst, S.; Burrows, J. P.

2013-12-01

In situ meteorological observations, including 10-m winds (U), in conjunction with greenhouse gas (GHG - methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor) measurements by continuous wave Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (CEAS) were conducted onboard two specialized platforms: MACLab (Mobile Atmospheric Composition Laboratory in a RV) and AMOG Surveyor (AutoMObile Greenhouse gas) - a converted commuter automobile. AMOG Surveyor data were collected for numerous southern California sources including megacity, geology, fossil fuel industrial, animal husbandry, and landfill operations. MACLab investigated similar sources along with wetlands on a transcontinental scale from California to Florida to Nebraska covering more than 15,000 km. Custom software allowing real-time, multi-parameter data visualization (GHGs, water vapor, temperature, U, etc.) improved plume characterization and was applied to large urban area and regional-scale sources. The capabilities demonstrated permit calculation of source emission strength, as well as enable documenting microclimate variability. GHG transect data were compared with airborne HyperSpectral Imaging data to understand temporal and spatial variability and to ground-truth emission strength derived from airborne imagery. These data also were used to validate satellite GHG products from SCIAMACHY (2003-2005) and GOSAT (2009-2013) that are currently being analyzed to identify significant decadal-scale changes in North American GHG emission patterns resulting from changes in anthropogenic and natural sources. These studies lay the foundation for the joint ESA/NASA COMEX campaign that will map GHG plumes by remote sensing and in situ measurements for a range of strong sources to derive emission strength through inverse plume modeling. COMEX is in support of the future GHG monitoring satellites, such as CarbonSat and HyspIRI. GHG transect data were compared with airborne HyperSpectral Imaging data to understand temporal and spatial variability and to ground-truth emission strength derived from airborne imagery. These data also were used to validate satellite GHG products from SCIAMACHY (2003-2005) and GOSAT (2009-2013) that are currently being analyzed to identify significant decadal-scale changes in North American GHG emission patterns resulting from changes in anthropogenic and natural sources. These studies lay the foundation for the joint ESA/NASA COMEX campaign that will map GHG plumes by remote sensing and in situ measurements for a range of strong sources to derive emission strength through inverse plume modeling. COMEX is in support of the future GHG monitoring satellites, such as CarbonSat and HyspIRI.

Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades.

PubMed

Schmidtko, Sunke; Stramma, Lothar; Visbeck, Martin

2017-02-15

Ocean models predict a decline in the dissolved oxygen inventory of the global ocean of one to seven per cent by the year 2100, caused by a combination of a warming-induced decline in oxygen solubility and reduced ventilation of the deep ocean. It is thought that such a decline in the oceanic oxygen content could affect ocean nutrient cycles and the marine habitat, with potentially detrimental consequences for fisheries and coastal economies. Regional observational data indicate a continuous decrease in oceanic dissolved oxygen concentrations in most regions of the global ocean, with an increase reported in a few limited areas, varying by study. Prior work attempting to resolve variations in dissolved oxygen concentrations at the global scale reported a global oxygen loss of 550 ± 130 teramoles (10 12  mol) per decade between 100 and 1,000 metres depth based on a comparison of data from the 1970s and 1990s. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the entire ocean oxygen inventory by analysing dissolved oxygen and supporting data for the complete oceanic water column over the past 50 years. We find that the global oceanic oxygen content of 227.4 ± 1.1 petamoles (10 15  mol) has decreased by more than two per cent (4.8 ± 2.1 petamoles) since 1960, with large variations in oxygen loss in different ocean basins and at different depths. We suggest that changes in the upper water column are mostly due to a warming-induced decrease in solubility and biological consumption. Changes in the deeper ocean may have their origin in basin-scale multi-decadal variability, oceanic overturning slow-down and a potential increase in biological consumption.

Multi-hole pressure probes to air data system for subsonic small-scale air vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchenko, A. M.; Berezin, D. R.; Puzirev, L. N.; Tarasov, A. Z.; Kharitonov, A. M.; Shmakov, A. S.

2016-10-01

A brief review of research performed to develop multi-hole probes to measure of aerodynamic angles, dynamic head, and static pressure of a flying vehicle. The basis of these works is the application a well-known classical multi-hole pressure probe technique of measuring of a 3D flow to use in the air data system. Two multi-hole pressure probes with spherical and hemispherical head to air-data system for subsonic small-scale vehicles have been developed. A simple analytical probe model with separation of variables is proposed. The probes were calibrated in the wind tunnel, one of them is in-flight tested.

Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.

2018-01-01

Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

Integrated Data Modeling and Simulation on the Joint Polar Satellite System Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Christopher J.; Boyce, Leslye; Smith, Gary; Li, Angela; Barrett, Larry

2012-01-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System is a modern, large-scale, complex, multi-mission aerospace program, and presents a variety of design, testing and operational challenges due to: (1) System Scope: multi-mission coordination, role, responsibility and accountability challenges stemming from porous/ill-defined system and organizational boundaries (including foreign policy interactions) (2) Degree of Concurrency: design, implementation, integration, verification and operation occurring simultaneously, at multiple scales in the system hierarchy (3) Multi-Decadal Lifecycle: technical obsolesce, reliability and sustainment concerns, including those related to organizational and industrial base. Additionally, these systems tend to become embedded in the broader societal infrastructure, resulting in new system stakeholders with perhaps different preferences (4) Barriers to Effective Communications: process and cultural issues that emerge due to geographic dispersion and as one spans boundaries including gov./contractor, NASA/Other USG, and international relationships.

Evaluation of Multi-Scale Climate Effects on Annual Recruitment Levels of the Japanese Eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan

PubMed Central

Tzeng, Wann-Nian; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Han, Yu-San; Hsu, Chih-Chieh; Chang, Chih-Wei; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hsieh, Chih-hao

2012-01-01

Long-term (1967–2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean–atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system. PMID:22383976

Evaluation of multi-scale climate effects on annual recruitment levels of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan.

PubMed

Tzeng, Wann-Nian; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Han, Yu-San; Hsu, Chih-Chieh; Chang, Chih-Wei; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

2012-01-01

Long-term (1967-2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean-atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system.

Multi-Decadal Variability in the Bering Sea: A Synthesis of Model Results and Observations from 1948 to the Present

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

stated that the development and use of high-resolution Arctic climate and systems models are important stepping stones for dedicated studies of...W., J. L. Clement Kinney, D. C. Marble , and J. Jakacki, 2008: Towards eddy resolving models of the Arctic Ocean: Ocean Modeling in an Eddying

Simulating Changes in Tropospheric Aerosol Burden and its Radiative Effects across the Northern Hemisphere: Contrasting Multi-Decadal Trends between Asia and North America

EPA Science Inventory

Though aerosol radiative effects have been recognized as some of the largest sources of uncertainty among the forcers of climate change, the verification of the spatial and temporal variability of the magnitude and directionality of aerosol radiative forcing has remained challeng...

Quantifying the decadal changes of PM2.5 over New York through a combination of satellite, model and in-situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, X.; Fiore, A. M.; Curci, G.; Lyapustin, A.; Wang, Y.; Civerolo, K.; Ku, M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R.

2017-12-01

Ambient exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the top global health concerns. Efforts have been made to regulate PM2.5 precursor emissions across the U.S.A, which are expected to mitigate the air pollution related health impacts. However, quantifying the health outcomes from emission controls requires robust estimates of PM2.5 exposures that accurately describe the spatial and temporal variability of PM2.5. Satellite remote sensing offers the potential to fill the gaps of the sparse, limited sampling of in situ measurement networks and is increasingly being used in health assessments. We provide new estimates of PM2.5 over New York State with 1 km spatial resolution that use Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AOD and a regional air quality model (CMAQ) to estimate the AOD-PM2.5 scaling factors. Next, we evaluate three major sources of uncertainties of satellite-derived PM2.5 data and their impacts on the derived decadal changes: 1) satellite retrieval of AOD, 2) optical properties of the particles, 3) relationships between the aerosol burden in the planetary boundary layer and full atmospheric column. Finally, we analyze the decadal changes of PM2.5 over New York State using the newly developed PM2.5 data, alongside four other PM2.5 estimates including satellite-derived PM2.5 developed by van Donkelaar et al. (2015), statistical land use regression developed by Beckerman et al. (2013), CMAQ simulations, and a Bayesian fusion of CMAQ and ground-based measurements. By evaluating the decadal changes of PM2.5 from multiple datasets over areas with dense (e.g. New York City area) and sparse ground-based measurements (e.g. upstate New York), we evaluate the extent to which satellite remote sensing could help better quantify the health outcomes of emission controls. References: Beckerman et al., (2013), A Hybrid Approach to Estimating National Scale Spatiotemporal Variability of PM2.5 in the Contiguous United States, Environ. Sci. Technol., 47(13), 7233-7241. van Donkelaar et al. (2015), High-Resolution Satellite-Derived PM2.5 from Optimal Estimation and Geographically Weighted Regression over North America, Environ. Sci. Technol., 49(17), 10482-10491.

Multi scale habitat relationships of Martes americana in northern Idaho, U.S.A.

Treesearch

Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Samuel A. Cushman; David O. Wallin; Jim Hayden

2012-01-01

We used bivariate scaling and logistic regression to investigate multiple-scale habitat selection by American marten (Martes americana). Bivariate scaling reveals dramatic differences in the apparent nature and strength of relationships between marten occupancy and a number of habitat variables across a range of spatial scales. These differences include reversals in...

Aeolian responses to climate variability during the past century on Mesquite Lake Playa, Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, John W.; Breit, George N.; Buckingham, S.E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Bogle, Rian C.; Luo, Lifeng; Goldstein, Harland L.; Vogel, John M.

2015-01-01

The erosion and deposition of sediments by wind from 1901 to 2013 have created large changes in surface features of Mesquite Lake playa in the Mojave Desert. The decadal scale recurrence of sand-sheet development, migration, and merging with older dunes appears related to decadal climatic changes of drought and wetness as recorded in the precipitation history of the Mojave Desert, complemented by modeled soil-moisture index values. Historical aerial photographs, repeat land photographs, and satellite images document the presence and northward migration of a mid-20th century sand sheet that formed during a severe regional drought that coincided with a multi-decadal cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The sand sheet slowly eroded during the wetter conditions of the subsequent PDO warm phase (1977–1998) due to a lack of added sediment. Sand cohesion gradually increased in the sand sheet by seasonal additions of salt and clay and by re-precipitation of gypsum, which resulted in the wind-carving of yardangs in the receding sand sheet. Smaller yardangs were aerodynamically shaped from coppice dunes with salt-clay crusts, and larger yardangs were carved along the walls and floor of trough blowouts. Evidence of a 19th century cycle of sand-sheet formation and erosion is indicated by remnants of yardangs, photographed in 1901 and 1916, that were found buried in the mid-20th century sand sheet. Three years of erosion measurements on the playa, yardangs, and sand sheets document relatively rapid wind erosion. The playa has lowered 20 to 40 cm since the mid-20th century and a shallow deflation basin has developed since 1999. Annually, 5–10 cm of surface sediment was removed from yardang flanks by a combination of wind abrasion, deflation, and mass movement. The most effective erosional processes are wind stripping of thin crusts that form on the yardang surfaces after rain events and the slumping of sediment blocks from yardang flanks. These wind-eroded landforms persist several decades to a century before eroding away or being buried by younger sands. On Mesquite Lake playa the climatic history of alternating PDO phases of multi-decadal drought and wetness is recorded twice by the presence of yardangs formed nearly a century apart.

The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

PubMed

Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

2017-07-01

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Two Centuries of Climate Variability From a Gulf of Papua Coral Confirms a Coherent, Widespread Multidecadal Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, J. E.; Lough, J.; Reed, E. V.; Schrag, D. P.

2016-12-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool is intimately involved with large-scale climate variability on seasonal to secular time scales. The lack of long instrumental observations in this region has motivated paleoclimatic analyses using diverse proxy data sources. We present here new multicentury paleoclimate records from a Gulf of Papua coral that capture past variability with a Pacific-wide signature. We have developed stable isotope, Sr/Ca, skeletal density, and luminescence data from a coral core recovered at Bramble Cay, Australia (9°S, 144°E). The geochemical records span CE 1775-1993 and are dominated by low-frequency (decade-century scale) variability that is consistent with records from other proxies in the same region, and with other coral records from far-flung sites across the southwest Pacific. Unlike in many Pacific coral records, we observe no strong trend towards warmer conditions. Although skeletal density bands are clearly visible, they show inconsistent seasonal phasing with the geochemical tracers of sea surface temperature (SST; Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope content), and skeletal density does not correlate with these tracers on longer time scales. In this coral, density banding must be controlled by a more complex mix of internal and/or external factors. Luminescent banding and reconstructed salinity provide similar histories, suggesting a common hydroclimatic signal with significant variability at periods of decades and longer. The strong low-frequency behavior in these new climate records of SST and hydroclimate, from a remote region of the Indo-Pacific, confirms an important source of internal climate variability, on a poorly documented time scale, from a region with far-reaching climatic importance.

European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2011-12-01

Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the persistence case but still positive overall.

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. P.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ruedy, R. A.

1992-01-01

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

PubMed

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Multi-Decadal Pathfinder Data Sets of Global Land Biophysical Variables from AVHRR and MODIS and their Use in GCM Studies of Biogeophysics and Biogeochemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myneni, Ranga

2003-01-01

The problem of how the scale, or spatial resolution, of reflectance data impacts retrievals of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and fraction absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) has been investigated. We define the goal of scaling as the process by which it is established that LAI and FPAR values derived from coarse resolution sensor data equal the arithmetic average of values derived independently from fine resolution sensor data. The increasing probability of land cover mixtures with decreasing resolution is defined as heterogeneity, which is a key concept in scaling studies. The effect of pixel heterogeneity on spectral reflectances and LAI/FPAR retrievals is investigated with 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data aggregated to different coarse spatial resolutions. It is shown that LAI retrieval errors at coarse resolution are inversely related to the proportion of the dominant land cover in such pixel. Further, large errors in LAI retrievals are incurred when forests are minority biomes in non-forest pixels compared to when forest biomes are mixed with one another, and vice-versa. A physically based technique for scaling with explicit spatial resolution dependent radiative transfer formulation is developed. The successful application of this theory to scaling LAI retrievals from AVHRR data of different resolutions is demonstrated

Predicting Species Distributions Using Record Centre Data: Multi-Scale Modelling of Habitat Suitability for Bat Roosts.

PubMed

Bellamy, Chloe; Altringham, John

2015-01-01

Conservation increasingly operates at the landscape scale. For this to be effective, we need landscape scale information on species distributions and the environmental factors that underpin them. Species records are becoming increasingly available via data centres and online portals, but they are often patchy and biased. We demonstrate how such data can yield useful habitat suitability models, using bat roost records as an example. We analysed the effects of environmental variables at eight spatial scales (500 m - 6 km) on roost selection by eight bat species (Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctula, Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii, M. nattereri, M. daubentonii, and Plecotus auritus) using the presence-only modelling software MaxEnt. Modelling was carried out on a selection of 418 data centre roost records from the Lake District National Park, UK. Target group pseudoabsences were selected to reduce the impact of sampling bias. Multi-scale models, combining variables measured at their best performing spatial scales, were used to predict roosting habitat suitability, yielding models with useful predictive abilities. Small areas of deciduous woodland consistently increased roosting habitat suitability, but other habitat associations varied between species and scales. Pipistrellus were positively related to built environments at small scales, and depended on large-scale woodland availability. The other, more specialist, species were highly sensitive to human-altered landscapes, avoiding even small rural towns. The strength of many relationships at large scales suggests that bats are sensitive to habitat modifications far from the roost itself. The fine resolution, large extent maps will aid targeted decision-making by conservationists and planners. We have made available an ArcGIS toolbox that automates the production of multi-scale variables, to facilitate the application of our methods to other taxa and locations. Habitat suitability modelling has the potential to become a standard tool for supporting landscape-scale decision-making as relevant data and open source, user-friendly, and peer-reviewed software become widely available.

Generating Vegetation Leaf Area Index Earth System Data Record from Multiple Sensors. Part 1; Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram; Schull, Mitchell A.; Samanta, Arindam; Shabanov, Nikolay V.; Milesi, Cristina; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga B.

2008-01-01

The generation of multi-decade long Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) from remote sensing measurements of multiple sensors is key to monitoring long-term changes in vegetation due to natural and anthropogenic influences. Challenges in developing such ESDRs include problems in remote sensing science (modeling of variability in global vegetation, scaling, atmospheric correction) and sensor hardware (differences in spatial resolution, spectral bands, calibration, and information content). In this paper, we develop a physically based approach for deriving LAI and FPAR products from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data that are of comparable quality to the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI and FPAR products, thus realizing the objective of producing a long (multi-decadal) time series of these products. The approach is based on the radiative transfer theory of canopy spectral invariants which facilitates parameterization of the canopy spectral bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF). The methodology permits decoupling of the structural and radiometric components and obeys the energy conservation law. The approach is applicable to any optical sensor, however, it requires selection of sensor-specific values of configurable parameters, namely, the single scattering albedo and data uncertainty. According to the theory of spectral invariants, the single scattering albedo is a function of the spatial scale, and thus, accounts for the variation in BRF with sensor spatial resolution. Likewise, the single scattering albedo accounts for the variation in spectral BRF with sensor bandwidths. The second adjustable parameter is data uncertainty, which accounts for varying information content of the remote sensing measurements, i.e., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, low information content), vs. spectral BRF (higher information content). Implementation of this approach indicates good consistency in LAI values retrieved from NDVI (AVHRRmode) and spectral BRF (MODIS-mode). Specific details of the implementation and evaluation of the derived products are detailed in the second part of this two-paper series.

Nicholas Metropolis Award for Outstanding Doctoral Thesis Work in Computational Physics Talk: Understanding Nano-scale Electronic Systems via Large-scale Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Chao

2009-03-01

Nano-scale physical phenomena and processes, especially those in electronics, have drawn great attention in the past decade. Experiments have shown that electronic and transport properties of functionalized carbon nanotubes are sensitive to adsorption of gas molecules such as H2, NO2, and NH3. Similar measurements have also been performed to study adsorption of proteins on other semiconductor nano-wires. These experiments suggest that nano-scale systems can be useful for making future chemical and biological sensors. Aiming to understand the physical mechanisms underlying and governing property changes at nano-scale, we start off by investigating, via first-principles method, the electronic structure of Pd-CNT before and after hydrogen adsorption, and continue with coherent electronic transport using non-equilibrium Green’s function techniques combined with density functional theory. Once our results are fully analyzed they can be used to interpret and understand experimental data, with a few difficult issues to be addressed. Finally, we discuss a newly developed multi-scale computing architecture, OPAL, that coordinates simultaneous execution of multiple codes. Inspired by the capabilities of this computing framework, we present a scenario of future modeling and simulation of multi-scale, multi-physical processes.

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated. Methods According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades. Results According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables. Conclusions Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task. PMID:22768874

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

Multi-Scale Modeling and the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J.

2015-12-01

Turbulence and convection play a fundamental role in many key weather and climate science topics. Unfortunately, current atmospheric models cannot explicitly resolve most turbulent and convective flow. Because of this fact, turbulence and convection in the atmosphere has to be parameterized - i.e. equations describing the dynamical evolution of the statistical properties of turbulence and convection motions have to be devised. Recently a variety of different models have been developed that attempt at simulating the atmosphere using variable resolution. A key problem however is that parameterizations are in general not explicitly aware of the resolution - the scale awareness problem. In this context, we will present and discuss a specific approach, the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) parameterization, that not only is in itself a multi-scale parameterization but it is also particularly well suited to deal with the scale-awareness problems that plague current variable-resolution models. It does so by representing small-scale turbulence using a classic Eddy-Diffusivity (ED) method, and the larger-scale (boundary layer and tropospheric-scale) eddies as a variety of plumes using the Mass-Flux (MF) concept.

Interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on southwest China's temperature over the past 250 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Wang, Lei; Dong, Zhipeng; Zhou, Feifei; Zhao, Yan; Li, Jinbao; Li, Yingjun; Cao, Xinguang

2018-05-01

The temperature gradient between southwestern China and Indian Ocean is one key driver of the Indian Summer Monsoon, suggesting the necessity to understand temperature variability in southwestern China. Contrary to the general warming experienced in most of China, a few regions in southwestern China have undergone a cooling trend since the 1950s. To place this cooling trend in a historical context, this study develops an Abies fabri tree-ring width chronology in the Sichuan Basin, the most populated region in southwest China. The chronology spans from 1590 to 2012, with its reliable portion from 1758 to 2012, by far the longest in the Sichuan Basin. To better extract regional climate signals encoded in tree rings with strong local disturbances, we incorporate climate signals of nearby tree-ring chronologies to generate a large-scale tree-ring chronology (LSC). The LSC shows higher correlations with temperature near the sampling site on Mount Emei and sea surface temperatures of the northern Atlantic Ocean than chronologies developed using traditional methods. The highest correlations between the LSC and temperature are found from current February to July in the Sichuan Basin for the period 1901-1950 (r = 0.70), with a sharp decrease afterwards. Interdecadal variations of the LSC match well with Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation reconstructions, except for the late nineteenth century and after 1980s. This study provides evidence that southwest China is a transitional region both affected by the interdecadal temperature variations of the northern Atlantic and Asian areas, although their influences weakened in recent possible due to enhanced human activities.

Long-term impact of a precision agriculture system on grain crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Research is lacking on the long-term impacts of field-scale precision agriculture practices on grain production. Following more than a decade (1993-2003) of yield and soil mapping and water quality assessment, a multi-faceted, ‘precision agriculture system’ (PAS) was implemented from 2004 to 2014 on...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of WRF-CMAQ Ozone Simulations over the Contiguous United States (2017 CMAS)

EPA Science Inventory

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over the contiguous United States is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and...

Ten-year optical monitoring of PKS 0735+178: historical comparison, multiband behavior, and variability timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciprini, S.; Takalo, L. O.; Tosti, G.; Raiteri, C. M.; Fiorucci, M.; Villata, M.; Nucciarelli, G.; Lanteri, L.; Nilsson, K.; Ros, J. A.

2007-05-01

Aims:New data and results on the optical behavior of the prominent blazar PKS 0735+178 (also known as OI 158, S3 0735+17, DA 237, 1ES 0735+178, 3EG J0737+1721) are presented, through the most continuous BVRI data available in the period 1994-2004 (about 500 nights of observations). In addition, the whole historical light curve, and a new photometric calibration of comparison stars in the field of this source are reported. Methods: Several methods for time series analysis of sparse data sets are developed, adapted, and applied to the reconstructed historical light curve and to each observing season of our unpublished optical database on PKS 0735+178. Optical spectral indexes are calculated from the multi-band observations and studied on long-term (years) durations as well. For the first time in this source, variability modes, characteristic timescales, and the signal power spectrum are explored and identified over 3 decades in time with sufficient statistics. The novel investigation of mid-term optical scales (days, weeks), could be also applied and compared to blazar gamma-ray light curves that will be provided, on the same timescales, by the forthcoming GLAST observatory. Results: In the last 10 years the optical emission of PKS 0735+178 exhibited a rather achromatic behavior and a variability mode resembling the shot-noise. The source was at an intermediate or low brightness level, showing a mild flaring activity and a superimposition/succession of rapid and slower flares, without extraordinary and isolated outbursts, but, at any rate, characterized by one major active phase in 2001. Several mid-term scales of variability were found, the more common falling into duration intervals of about 27-28 days, 50-56 days and 76-79 days. Rapid variability in the historical light curve appears to be modulated by a general, slower, and rather oscillating temporal trend, where typical amplitudes of about 4.5, 8.5, and 11-13 years can be identified. This spectral and temporal analysis, accompanying our data publication, suggests the occurrence of distinctive signatures at mid-term durations that can likely be of transitory nature. On the other hand the possible pseudo-cyclical or multi-component modulations at long times could be more stable, recurrent and correlated to the bimodal radio flux behavior and the twisted radio structure observed over several years in this blazar.

Exploring the control of land-atmospheric oscillations over terrestrial vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depoorter, Mathieu; Green, Julia; Gentine, Pierre; Liu, Yi; van Eck, Christel; Regnier, Pierre; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Miralles, Diego

2015-04-01

Vegetation dynamics play an important role in the climate system due to their control on the carbon, energy and water cycles. The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation is regulated by internal climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms, including fires, land use, volcano eruptions or greenhouse gas emissions. Ocean-atmospheric oscillations, affect the fluxes of heat and water over continents, leading to anomalies in radiation, precipitation or temperature at widely separated locations (i.e. teleconnections); an effect of ocean-atmospheric oscillations on terrestrial primary productivity can therefore be expected. While different studies have shown the general importance of internal climate variability for global vegetation dynamics, the control by particular teleconnections over the regional growth and decay of vegetation is still poorly understood. At continental to global scales, satellite remote sensing offers a feasible approach to enhance our understanding of the main drivers of vegetation variability. Traditional studies of the multi-decadal variability of global vegetation have been usually based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which extends back to the early '80s. There are, however, some limitations to NDVI observations; arguably the most important of these limitations is that from the plant physiology perspective the index does not have a well-defined meaning, appearing poorly correlated to vegetation productivity. On the other hand, recently developed records from other remotely-sensed properties of vegetation, like fluorescence or microwave vegetation optical depth, have proven a significantly better correspondence to above-ground biomass. To enhance our understanding of the controls of ocean-atmosphere oscillations over vegetation, we propose to explore the link between climate oscillation extremes and net primary productivity over the last two decades. The co-variability of a range of climate oscillation indices and newly-derived records of fluorescence and vegetation optical depth is analyzed using a statistical framework based on correlations, bootstrapping and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). Results will enable us to characterize regional hotspots where particular climatic oscillations control vegetation productivity, as well as allowing us to underpin the climatic variables behind this control.

Gradient design for liquid chromatography using multi-scale optimization.

PubMed

López-Ureña, S; Torres-Lapasió, J R; Donat, R; García-Alvarez-Coque, M C

2018-01-26

In reversed phase-liquid chromatography, the usual solution to the "general elution problem" is the application of gradient elution with programmed changes of organic solvent (or other properties). A correct quantification of chromatographic peaks in liquid chromatography requires well resolved signals in a proper analysis time. When the complexity of the sample is high, the gradient program should be accommodated to the local resolution needs of each analyte. This makes the optimization of such situations rather troublesome, since enhancing the resolution for a given analyte may imply a collateral worsening of the resolution of other analytes. The aim of this work is to design multi-linear gradients that maximize the resolution, while fulfilling some restrictions: all peaks should be eluted before a given maximal time, the gradient should be flat or increasing, and sudden changes close to eluting peaks are penalized. Consequently, an equilibrated baseline resolution for all compounds is sought. This goal is achieved by splitting the optimization problem in a multi-scale framework. In each scale κ, an optimization problem is solved with N κ  ≈ 2 κ variables that are used to build the gradients. The N κ variables define cubic splines written in terms of a B-spline basis. This allows expressing gradients as polygonals of M points approximating the splines. The cubic splines are built using subdivision schemes, a technique of fast generation of smooth curves, compatible with the multi-scale framework. Owing to the nature of the problem and the presence of multiple local maxima, the algorithm used in the optimization problem of each scale κ should be "global", such as the pattern-search algorithm. The multi-scale optimization approach is successfully applied to find the best multi-linear gradient for resolving a mixture of amino acid derivatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time and length scales within a fire and implications for numerical simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

TIESZEN,SHELDON R.

2000-02-02

A partial non-dimensionalization of the Navier-Stokes equations is used to obtain order of magnitude estimates of the rate-controlling transport processes in the reacting portion of a fire plume as a function of length scale. Over continuum length scales, buoyant times scales vary as the square root of the length scale; advection time scales vary as the length scale, and diffusion time scales vary as the square of the length scale. Due to the variation with length scale, each process is dominant over a given range. The relationship of buoyancy and baroclinc vorticity generation is highlighted. For numerical simulation, first principlesmore » solution for fire problems is not possible with foreseeable computational hardware in the near future. Filtered transport equations with subgrid modeling will be required as two to three decades of length scale are captured by solution of discretized conservation equations. By whatever filtering process one employs, one must have humble expectations for the accuracy obtainable by numerical simulation for practical fire problems that contain important multi-physics/multi-length-scale coupling with up to 10 orders of magnitude in length scale.« less

A Multi-Scale Distribution Model for Non-Equilibrium Populations Suggests Resource Limitation in an Endangered Rodent

PubMed Central

Bean, William T.; Stafford, Robert; Butterfield, H. Scott; Brashares, Justin S.

2014-01-01

Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define “available” habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining “available” habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists. PMID:25237807

Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Gonçalves, João; Alves, Paulo; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Honrado, João P

2018-01-01

Global environmental changes are rapidly affecting species' distributions and habitat suitability worldwide, requiring a continuous update of biodiversity status to support effective decisions on conservation policy and management. In this regard, satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) offer a more integrative and quicker evaluation of ecosystem responses to environmental drivers and changes than climate and structural or compositional landscape attributes. Thus, EFAs may hold advantages as predictors in Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and for implementing multi-scale species monitoring programs. Here we describe a modelling framework to assess the predictive ability of EFAs as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) against traditional datasets (climate, land-cover) at several scales. We test the framework with a multi-scale assessment of habitat suitability for two plant species of conservation concern, both protected under the EU Habitats Directive, differing in terms of life history, range and distribution pattern (Iris boissieri and Taxus baccata). We fitted four sets of SDMs for the two test species, calibrated with: interpolated climate variables; landscape variables; EFAs; and a combination of climate and landscape variables. EFA-based models performed very well at the several scales (AUCmedian from 0.881±0.072 to 0.983±0.125), and similarly to traditional climate-based models, individually or in combination with land-cover predictors (AUCmedian from 0.882±0.059 to 0.995±0.083). Moreover, EFA-based models identified additional suitable areas and provided valuable information on functional features of habitat suitability for both test species (narrowly vs. widely distributed), for both coarse and fine scales. Our results suggest a relatively small scale-dependence of the predictive ability of satellite-derived EFAs, supporting their use as meaningful EBVs in SDMs from regional and broader scales to more local and finer scales. Since the evaluation of species' conservation status and habitat quality should as far as possible be performed based on scalable indicators linking to meaningful processes, our framework may guide conservation managers in decision-making related to biodiversity monitoring and reporting schemes.

Detecting changes resulting from human pressure in a naturally quick-changing and heterogeneous environment: Spatial and temporal scales of variability in coastal lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Ruzafa, A.; Marcos, C.; Pérez-Ruzafa, I. M.; Barcala, E.; Hegazi, M. I.; Quispe, J.

2007-10-01

To detect changes in ecosystems due to human impact, experimental designs must include replicates at the appropriate scale to avoid pseudoreplication. Although coastal lagoons, with their highly variable environmental factors and biological assemblages, are relatively well-studied systems, very little is known about their natural scales of variation. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal scales of variability in the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain) using structured hierarchical sampling designs, mixed and permutational multi-variate analyses of variance, and ordination multi-variate analyses applied to hydrographical parameters, nutrients, chlorophyll a and ichthyoplankton in the water column, and to macrophyte and fish benthic assemblages. Lagoon processes in the Mar Menor show heterogeneous patterns at different temporal and spatial scales. The water column characteristics (including nutrient concentration) showed small-scale spatio-temporal variability, from 10 0 to 10 1 km and from fortnightly to seasonally. Biological features (chlorophyll a concentration and ichthyoplankton assemblage descriptors) showed monthly changes and spatial patterns at the scale of 10 0 (chlorophyll a) - 10 1 km (ichthyoplankton). Benthic assemblages (macrophytes and fishes) showed significant differences between types of substrates in the same locality and between localities, according to horizontal gradients related with confinement in the lagoon, at the scale of 10 0-10 1 km. The vertical zonation of macrophyte assemblages (at scales of 10 1-10 2 cm) overlaps changes in substrata and horizontal gradients. Seasonal patterns in vegetation biomass were not significant, but the significant interaction between Locality and Season indicated that the seasons of maximum and minimum biomass depend on local environmental conditions. Benthic fish assemblages showed no significant patterns at the monthly scale but did show seasonal patterns.

Cyclic changes of Asian monsoon intensity during the early mid-Holocene from annually-laminated stalagmites, central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dianbing; Wang, Yongjin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. L.; Kong, Xinggong

2015-08-01

Climate during the early Holocene was highly variable due to the complex interplay of external and internal forcing mechanisms. The relative importance for them on the Asian monsoon (AM) evolution yet remains to be resolved. Here we present two-to six-yr-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) records of five stalagmites, four of which are annually-laminated, from Qingtian Cave, central China, revealing detailed AM variability between 10.9 and 6.1 ka BP. Over the contemporaneous periods, the δ18O records agree well with each other at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. When pieced together with the previously published isotopic data from the same cave, the final δ18O record reveals detailed AM variability from the last deglaciation to the mid-Holocene, consistent with other cave records. The most striking feature of the δ18O record is the recurrence of centennial-scale oscillations, especially during the annually-counted period (8.8-6.1 ka BP). Cross-wavelet analyses between the δ18O record and solar proxies show strong coherence at 200-yr cycle, suggesting that solar output was actively involved as a primary contributor. The AM depression at 8.2 ka BP is indistinguishable in amplitude and pattern from a series of weak AM events after 8 ka BP. We speculate that these centennial-scale AM changes might be regulated by the positive feedbacks of oceanic/atmospheric interactions to the solar activity under the condition of the retreat of continental ice-sheets.

Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

Results from Navigator GPS Flight Testing for the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lulich, Tyler D.; Bamford, William A.; Wintermitz, Luke M. B.; Price, Samuel R.

2012-01-01

The recent delivery of the first Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Navigator Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to the Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission spacecraft is a high water mark crowning a decade of research and development in high-altitude space-based GPS. Preceding MMS delivery, the engineering team had developed receivers to support multiple missions and mission studies, such as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) navigation for the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), above the constellation navigation for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) proof-of-concept studies, cis-Lunar navigation with rapid re-acquisition during re-entry for the Orion Project and an orbital demonstration on the Space Shuttle during the Hubble Servicing Mission (HSM-4).

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2016-04-01

South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological stations. The proposed model will be validated by using the (National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research) NCEP/NCAR predictors for the period of 1960-1990 and validated for 1990-2000. To investigate the efficiency of the proposed model, it will be compared with the multivariate multiple regression model and with dynamical downscaling climate models by using different climate indices that describe the frequency, intensity and duration of the variables of interest. KEY WORDS: Climate change, Copula, Monsoon, Quantile regression, Spatio-temporal distribution.

CMAQ MODELING FOR AIR TOXICS AT FINE SCALES: A PROTOTYPE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Toxic air pollutants (TAPs) or hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) exhibit considerable spatial and temporal variability across urban areas. Therefore, the ability of chemical transport models (CTMs), e.g. Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), to reproduce the spatial and tempor...

Insight to forcing of late Quaternary climate change from aeolian dust archives in eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, H. A.; Marx, S.; Soderholm, J.; Denholm, J.; Petherick, L.

2010-12-01

The Australian continent is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere. Historical dust emissions records display inter-annual variability in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and inter-decadal variability which has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These reflect change in hydrometeorology of the continents two major dust source regions, the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The historical records do not allow longer term variability of ENSO and the PDO and their influence on Australia to be quantified. Importantly, sub-Milankovitch centennial to multi-millennial scale climate cycles and their impacts are not represented in the historical records. In this paper we present summary results from the analysis of two aeolain dust records spanning 7 ka and 45 ka. These were developed from ombrotrophic mire and lacustrine sediment cores collected from the Australian Alps and southeast Queensland. Both sites are located in the southeast Australian dust transport pathway and provide rare insight to forcings of climate variability and its impacts on eastern Australia through the late Quaternary. Age controls for the cores were established using 14C and 210Pb dating [McGowan et al. 2008, 2010]. The cores were sliced into 2 to 5 mm segments with a sub-sample of each segment combusted at 450°C for 12 hrs to destroy organic material and allow recovery of mineral dust. Geochemical fingerprinting of the < 90 µm fraction of the dust was used to determine provenance and to account for contamination by fluvial and/or colluvial sediments [Marx et al. 2005]. Analysis of the dust records, proxy for hydrometeorology, identified tropical ocean teleconnections, variability of solar irradiance and change in ocean deep water circulation as the principal causes of inter-decadal to centennial scale climate cycles and change. Predictions of future climate must consider these forcings so that in water scarce regions of Australia the effect on the hydroclimate is incorporated into the design of water allocation policy and infrastructure, and the management of environmental systems. Comparison with ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica indicate both synchronicity of global climate variability and the impact of forcings originating from the North Hemisphere. These results highlight the potential for adverse impacts on the climate of Australia by disturbance to North Atlantic Ocean circulation. References Marx, S. K., et al. 2005: Provenance of long travelled dust determined with ultra trace element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers. Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 30, 699-716. McGowan, H.A., et al. 2008: An ultra-high resolution record of aeolian sedimentation during the late Quaternary from eastern Australia. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 265(3-4), 171-181. McGowan, H. A., et al. 2010: Evidence of solar and tropical ocean forcing of hydroclimate cycles in southeastern Australia for the past 6500 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10705, doi:10.1029/2010GL042918.

A multi-sensor remote sensing approach for measuring primary production from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gautier, Catherine

1989-01-01

It is proposed to develop a multi-sensor remote sensing method for computing marine primary productivity from space, based on the capability to measure the primary ocean variables which regulate photosynthesis. The three variables and the sensors which measure them are: (1) downwelling photosynthetically available irradiance, measured by the VISSR sensor on the GOES satellite, (2) sea-surface temperature from AVHRR on NOAA series satellites, and (3) chlorophyll-like pigment concentration from the Nimbus-7/CZCS sensor. These and other measured variables would be combined within empirical or analytical models to compute primary productivity. With this proposed capability of mapping primary productivity on a regional scale, we could begin realizing a more precise and accurate global assessment of its magnitude and variability. Applications would include supplementation and expansion on the horizontal scale of ship-acquired biological data, which is more accurate and which supplies the vertical components of the field, monitoring oceanic response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, correlation with observed sedimentation patterns and processes, and fisheries management.

Spatial multi-scale variability of soil nutrients in relation to environmental factors in a typical agricultural region, eastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lv, Jianshu; Zhang, Bing; Bi, Jun

2013-04-15

Identifying the sources of spatial variability and deficiency risk of soil nutrients is a crucial issue for soil and agriculture management. A total of 1247 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) were collected at the nodes of a 2×2 km grid in Rizhao City and the contents of soil organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were determined. Factorial kriging analysis (FKA), stepwise multiple regression, and indicator kriging (IK) were appled to investigate the scale dependent correlations among soil nutrients, identify the sources of spatial variability at each spatial scale, and delineate the potential risk of soil nutrient deficiency. Linear model of co-regionalization (LMC) fitting indicated that the presence of multi-scale variation was comprised of nugget effect, an exponential structure with a range of 12 km (local scale), and a spherical structure with a range of 84 km (regional scale). The short-range variation of OC and TN was mainly dominated by land use types, and TP was controlled by terrain. At long-range scale, spatial variation of OC, TN, and TP was dominated by parent material. Indicator kriging maps depicted the probability of soil nutrient deficiency compared with the background values in eastern Shandong province. The high deficiency risk area of all nutrient integration was mainly located in eastern and northwestern parts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilifarska, N. A.

2012-12-01

The strong sensitivity of the Earth's radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone—reported previously—is analysed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T)—driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)—explains 75% of total variability of Earth's T variations during the period 1926-2011. We have analysed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05-0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.

Multi-scale models of grassland passerine abundance in a fragmented system in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renfrew, R.B.; Ribic, C.A.

2008-01-01

Fragmentation of grasslands has been implicated in grassland bird population declines. Multi-scale models are being increasingly used to assess potential factors that influence grassland bird presence, abundance, and productivity. However, studies rarely assess fragmentation metrics, and seldom evaluate more than two scales or interactions among scales. We evaluated the relative importance of characteristics at multiple scales to patterns in relative abundance of Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), and Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). We surveyed birds in 74 southwestern Wisconsin pastures from 1997 to 1999 and compared models with explanatory variables from multiple scales: within-patch vegetation structure (microhabitat), patch (macrohabitat), and three landscape extents. We also examined interactions between macrohabitat and landscape factors. Core area of pastures was an important predictor of relative abundance, and composition of the landscape was more important than configuration. Relative abundance was frequently higher in pastures with more core area and in landscapes with more grassland and less wooded area. The direction and strength of the effect of core pasture size on relative abundance changed depending on amount of wooded area in the landscape. Relative abundance of grassland birds was associated with landscape variables more frequently at the 1200-m scale than at smaller scales. To develop better predictive models, parameters at multiple scales and their interactive effects should be included, and results should be evaluated in the context of microhabitat variability, landscape composition, and fragmentation in the study area. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

A Decade-Long European-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Ban, N.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Schar, C.

2016-12-01

Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer designs that involve conventional multi-core CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation over Europe using the GPU-enabled COSMO version on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 gridpoints. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss some of the advantages and prospects from using GPUs, and focus on the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we investigate the organization of convective clouds and on validate hourly rainfall distributions with various high-resolution data sets.

Dynamics of particulate organic matter composition in coastal systems: Forcing of spatio-temporal variability at multi-systems scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liénart, Camilla; Savoye, Nicolas; David, Valérie; Ramond, Pierre; Rodriguez Tress, Paco; Hanquiez, Vincent; Marieu, Vincent; Aubert, Fabien; Aubin, Sébastien; Bichon, Sabrina; Boinet, Christophe; Bourasseau, Line; Bozec, Yann; Bréret, Martine; Breton, Elsa; Caparros, Jocelyne; Cariou, Thierry; Claquin, Pascal; Conan, Pascal; Corre, Anne-Marie; Costes, Laurence; Crouvoisier, Muriel; Del Amo, Yolanda; Derriennic, Hervé; Dindinaud, François; Duran, Robert; Durozier, Maïa; Devesa, Jérémy; Ferreira, Sophie; Feunteun, Eric; Garcia, Nicole; Geslin, Sandrine; Grossteffan, Emilie; Gueux, Aurore; Guillaudeau, Julien; Guillou, Gaël; Jolly, Orianne; Lachaussée, Nicolas; Lafont, Michel; Lagadec, Véronique; Lamoureux, Jézabel; Lauga, Béatrice; Lebreton, Benoît; Lecuyer, Eric; Lehodey, Jean-Paul; Leroux, Cédric; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Macé, Eric; Maria, Eric; Mousseau, Laure; Nowaczyk, Antoine; Pineau, Philippe; Petit, Franck; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Raimbault, Patrick; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Rouaud, Vanessa; Sauriau, Pierre-Guy; Sultan, Emmanuelle; Susperregui, Nicolas

2018-03-01

In costal systems, particulate organic matter (POM) results from a multiplicity of sources having their respective dynamics in terms of production, decomposition, transport and burial. The POM pool experiences thus considerable spatial and temporal variability. In order to better understand this variability, the present study employs statistical multivariate analyses to investigate links between POM composition and environmental forcings for a panel of twelve coastal systems distributed along the three maritime regions of France and monitored weekly to monthly for 1 to 8 years. At multi-system scale, two main gradients of POC composition have been identified: a 'Continent-Ocean' gradient associated with hydrodynamics, sedimentary dynamics and depth of the water column, and a gradient of trophic status related to nutrient availability. At local scale, seasonality of POC composition appears to be station-specific but still related to part of the above-mentioned forcings. A typology of systems was established by coupling spatial and temporal variability of POC composition. Four groups were highlighted: (1) the estuarine stations where POC composition is dominated by terrestrial POM and driven by hydrodynamics and sedimentary processes, (2) the oligotrophic systems, characterized by the contribution of diazotrophs due to low nutrient availability, and the marine meso/eutroph systems whose POC composition is (3) either deeply dominated by phytoplankton or (4) dominated by phytoplankton but where the contribution of continental and benthic POC is not negligible and is driven by hydrodynamics, sedimentary processes and the height of the water column. Finally, the present study provides several insights into the different forcings to POM composition and dynamics in temperate coastal systems at local and multi-system scales. This work also presents a methodological approach that establishes statistical links between forcings and POM composition, helping to gain more objectively insight of forcings.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

The unusual suspect: Land use is a key predictor of biodiversity patterns in the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Inês Santos; Proença, Vânia; Pereira, Henrique Miguel

2014-11-01

Although land use change is a key driver of biodiversity change, related variables such as habitat area and habitat heterogeneity are seldom considered in modeling approaches at larger extents. To address this knowledge gap we tested the contribution of land use related variables to models describing richness patterns of amphibians, reptiles and passerines in the Iberian Peninsula. We analyzed the relationship between species richness and habitat heterogeneity at two spatial resolutions (i.e., 10 km × 10 km and 50 km × 50 km). Using both ordinary least square and simultaneous autoregressive models, we assessed the relative importance of land use variables, climate variables and topographic variables. We also compare the species-area relationship with a multi-habitat model, the countryside species-area relationship, to assess the role of the area of different types of habitats on species diversity across scales. The association between habitat heterogeneity and species richness varied with the taxa and spatial resolution. A positive relationship was detected for all taxa at a grain size of 10 km × 10 km, but only passerines responded at a grain size of 50 km × 50 km. Species richness patterns were well described by abiotic predictors, but habitat predictors also explained a considerable portion of the variation. Moreover, species richness patterns were better described by a multi-habitat species-area model, incorporating land use variables, than by the classic power model, which only includes area as the single explanatory variable. Our results suggest that the role of land use in shaping species richness patterns goes beyond the local scale and persists at larger spatial scales. These findings call for the need of integrating land use variables in models designed to assess species richness response to large scale environmental changes.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties.

PubMed

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Nakano, Kazunari; Zhang, Yong; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanoue, Masahiro; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-07-20

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Nakano, Kazunari; Zhang, Yong; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanoue, Masahiro; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-07-01

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Identifying and Evaluating the Relationships that Control a Land Surface Model's Hydrological Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Mahanama, Sarith P.

2012-01-01

The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today 's land surface models (LSMs) arguably reflect a lot of guesswork given the lack of contemporaneous evaporation and soil moisture observations at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. The inherent soil moisture-runoff relationships used in the LSMs are also of uncertain accuracy. Evaluating these relationships is difficult but crucial given that they have a major impact on how the land component contributes to hydrological and meteorological variability within the climate system. The relationships, it turns out, can be examined efficiently and effectively with a simple water balance model framework. The simple water balance model, driven with multi-decadal observations covering the conterminous United States, shows how different prescribed relationships lead to different manifestations of hydrological variability, some of which can be compared directly to observations. Through the testing of a wide suite of relationships, the simple model provides estimates for the underlying relationships that operate in nature and that should be operating in LSMs. We examine the relationships currently used in a number of different LSMs in the context of the simple water balance model results and make recommendations for potential first-order improvements to these LSMs.

USING CMAQ FOR EXPOSURE MODELING AND CHARACTERIZING THE SUB-GRID VARIABILITY FOR EXPOSURE ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric processes and the associated transport and dispersion of atmospheric pollutants are known to be highly variable in time and space. Current air quality models that characterize atmospheric chemistry effects, e.g. the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), provide vo...

The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.

2009-08-01

SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other hand, water infiltration is poor on shallow soils, and vegetation is sparse and discontinuous, with more concentrated run-off that ends in pools or low lands within structured endorheic watersheds. Land surface in the Gourma is characterized by rapid response to climate variability, strong intra-seasonal, seasonal and inter-annual variations in vegetation growth, soil moisture and energy balance. Despite the multi-decadal drought, which still persists, ponds and lakes have increased, the grass cover has largely recovered, and there are signs of increased tree cover at least in the low lands.

Molluscan sclerochronology on the Faroese Shelf and its potential to obtain closer insights into the climate variability of North Atlantic water masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonitz, F. G. W.; Andersson Dahl, C.; Trofimova, T.

2016-12-01

In this study, we investigate the climate variability in the North Atlantic during the last 350 years by applying sclerochronological methods. The inflow of North Atlantic water masses into the Arctic and the Norwegian Sea is important for the climate in these regions. A better understanding of the climate variability on highly resolved time scales is needed to obtain a better fundament for climate predictions for these areas. However, highly resolved paleoclimate records are sparse in the North Atlantic and instrumental data cover only the last 50 - 150 years. Bivalve shells provide highly resolved climate archives, especially the shells of the long-lived bivalve species Arctica islandica. This widely occurring species forms annual growth increments, which can be analyzed similarly to tree rings. Climatic and oceanographic changes are recorded population-wide in the shell`s growth rate and in the isotopic composition of the shell. Hence, multi-centennial absolutely dated chronologies can be built by cross-matching live-collected and sub-fossil specimens. Our chronology building effort has led to the first multi-centennial absolutely dated chronology from the Faroese Shelf covering the time period from AD 1642 - 2013. The growth indices of the chronology anti-correlate with April - September sea surface temperatures (SST) for the last 100 years indicating favorable conditions for growth when temperatures are lower. This also suggests that the main growing season of A. islandica around the Faroe Islands occurs in this time period; a hypothesis supported by δ18O-based temperature reconstructions from growth increments representing the years 2001 - 2013. The RBAR, which is an indicator for the signal strength throughout the chronology shows an inverse relationship with Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) data indicating that periods of higher AMO indexes result in a weakened signal strength in the chronology for the same time period. In conclusion, our results suggest that a combination of the growth increment variability and δ18O measurements of the growth increments can provide a tool to obtain information about the year-to-year SST variability beyond instrumental observations and the signal strength throughout the chronology may provide information about the timing of major AMO shifts.

Temperature variability inferred from tree-ring records in Weichang region, China, and its teleconnection with large-scale climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yanchao; Liu, Yu; Zhang, Huifang; Wang, Hui; Guo, Jingli; Zhang, Erliang; Wang, Jun; Li, Xiao

2018-04-01

Based on the combination of two dendrochronologies, the annual mean temperature from May to June for the last 160 years was reconstructed in Weichang region, China, with the predictor variables accounting 43.3% of the variance during the calibration period of 1956-2012. Warm periods with temperature levels great than the mean (17.66 °C) occurred in 1853-1881, 1886-1891, 1904-1909, 1923-1930, 1964-1970, 1980-1988, 1998-2002 and 2007-2011; and cold periods with temperature levels less than the mean occurred in 1882-1885, 1892-1898, 1901-1903, 1910-1922, 1931-1963, 1971-1979, 1989-1997 and 2003-2006. The reconstruction showed that droughts usually occurred in the warm years. And the reconstructed temperature series showed an almost reverse trend to the total precipitation of previous August to present July from Chifeng-Weichang on inter-decadal scale, which indicate the basic feature of climate was warm-dry and cold-wet in Weichang region. The reconstructed temperature series showed a linear increasing trend with a rise 0.11 °C from 1880 to 2012. Comparisons with other temperature series revealed a consistently warming trend after the mid-1950s and confirmed a good repeatability and high reliability in our reconstruction. Spatial correlation implied the reconstruction could represent a regional temperature signal in the large parts of northern China and Central-Eastern Mongolia. The multi-taper method reveals several significant periodicities in our reconstruction over the past 160 years, suggesting possible linkages with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, lunar gravity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity. Correlation analysis between the reconstruction and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), lunar geocentric declination, PDO and sunspot number further demonstrates that the temperature variations in Weichang region are negatively correlated with SOI and positively correlated with lunar gravity, PDO and solar activity in the long term.

Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

PubMed

Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

2016-02-01

Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional climate response collaboratives: Multi-institutional support for climate resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Averyt, Kristen; Derner, Justin D.; Dilling, Lisa; Guerrero, Rafael; Joyce, Linda A.; McNeeley, Shannon; McNie, Elizabeth; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ojima, Dennis; O'Malley, Robin; Peck, Dannele; Ray, Andrea J.; Reeves, Matt; Travis, William

2018-01-01

Federal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales grew over the past decade (2010s). To maximize efficiency and effectiveness in serving multiple sectors and scales, it has become critical to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. We discuss lessons learned from a multi-institutional “regional climate response collaborative” that comprises three different federally-supported climate service entities in the Rocky Mountain west and northern plains region. These lessons include leveraging different strengths of each partner, creating deliberate mechanisms to increase cross-entity communication and joint ownership of projects, and placing a common priority on stakeholder-relevant research and outcomes. We share the conditions that fostered successful collaboration, which can be transferred elsewhere, and suggest mechanisms for overcoming potential barriers. Synergies are essential for producing actionable research that informs climate-related decisions for stakeholders and ultimately enhances climate resilience at regional scales.

Climate-driven polar motion: 2003-2015.

PubMed

Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R

2016-04-01

Earth's spin axis has been wandering along the Greenwich meridian since about 2000, representing a 75° eastward shift from its long-term drift direction. The past 115 years have seen unequivocal evidence for a quasi-decadal periodicity, and these motions persist throughout the recent record of pole position, in spite of the new drift direction. We analyze space geodetic and satellite gravimetric data for the period 2003-2015 to show that all of the main features of polar motion are explained by global-scale continent-ocean mass transport. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and global cryosphere together explain nearly the entire amplitude (83 ± 23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9° ± 7.6°) of the observed motion. We also find that the TWS variability fully explains the decadal-like changes in polar motion observed during the study period, thus offering a clue to resolving the long-standing quest for determining the origins of decadal oscillations. This newly discovered link between polar motion and global-scale TWS variability has broad implications for the study of past and future climate.

Climate-driven polar motion: 2003–2015

PubMed Central

Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.

2016-01-01

Earth’s spin axis has been wandering along the Greenwich meridian since about 2000, representing a 75° eastward shift from its long-term drift direction. The past 115 years have seen unequivocal evidence for a quasi-decadal periodicity, and these motions persist throughout the recent record of pole position, in spite of the new drift direction. We analyze space geodetic and satellite gravimetric data for the period 2003–2015 to show that all of the main features of polar motion are explained by global-scale continent-ocean mass transport. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and global cryosphere together explain nearly the entire amplitude (83 ± 23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9° ± 7.6°) of the observed motion. We also find that the TWS variability fully explains the decadal-like changes in polar motion observed during the study period, thus offering a clue to resolving the long-standing quest for determining the origins of decadal oscillations. This newly discovered link between polar motion and global-scale TWS variability has broad implications for the study of past and future climate. PMID:27152348

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutowski, William J.

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASMmore » can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes in the freshwater flux between arctic climate system components resulting from decadal changes in land and sea ice, seasonal snow, vegetation, and ocean circulation. - Changing energetics due to decadal changes in ice mass, vegetation, and air-sea interactions. - The role of small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes that influence decadal variability. This research has been addressing modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change. RASM can facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts.« less

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Understanding multidecadal variability in ENSO amplitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2013-12-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific vary as a result of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere driven largely by the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has a large impact on the local climate and hydrology of the tropical Pacific, as well as broad-reaching effects on global climate. ENSO amplitude is known to vary on long timescales, which makes it very difficult to quantify its response to climate change and constrain the physical processes that drive it. In order to assess the extent of unforced multidecadal changes in ENSO variability, a linear regression of local SST changes is applied to the GFDL CM2.1 model 4000-yr pre-industrial control run. The resulting regression coefficient strengths, which represent the sensitivity of SST changes to thermocline depth and zonal wind stress, vary by up to a factor of 2 on multi-decadal time scales. This long-term modulation in ocean-atmosphere coupling is highly correlated with ENSO variability, but do not explain the reasons for such variability. Variation in the relationship between SST changes and wind stress points to a role for changing stratification in the central equatorial Pacific in modulating ENSO amplitudes with stronger stratification reducing the response to winds. The main driving mechanism we have identified for higher ENSO variance are changes in the response of zonal winds to SST anomalies. The shifting convection and precipitation patterns associated with the changing state of the atmosphere also contribute to the variability of the regression coefficients. These mechanisms drive much of the variability in ENSO amplitude and hence ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific.

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.K.; Anderson, D.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.; Houser, P.; Hou, A.; Lang, S.; Lau, W.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kakar, R.;

Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, Heikki; Seitola, Teija; Silén, Johan; Räisänen, Jouni

2016-11-01

A performance expectation is that Earth system models simulate well the climate mean state and the climate variability. To test this expectation, we decompose two 20th century reanalysis data sets and 12 CMIP5 model simulations for the years 1901-2005 of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature using randomised multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA). Due to the relatively short time span, we concentrate on the representation of multi-annual variability which the RMSSA method effectively captures as separate and mutually orthogonal spatio-temporal components. This decomposition is a unique way to separate statistically significant quasi-periodic oscillations from one another in high-dimensional data sets.The main results are as follows. First, the total spectra for the two reanalysis data sets are remarkably similar in all timescales, except that the spectral power in ERA-20C is systematically slightly higher than in 20CR. Apart from the slow components related to multi-decadal periodicities, ENSO oscillations with approximately 3.5- and 5-year periods are the most prominent forms of variability in both reanalyses. In 20CR, these are relatively slightly more pronounced than in ERA-20C. Since about the 1970s, the amplitudes of the 3.5- and 5-year oscillations have increased, presumably due to some combination of forced climate change, intrinsic low-frequency climate variability, or change in global observing network. Second, none of the 12 coupled climate models closely reproduce all aspects of the reanalysis spectra, although some models represent many aspects well. For instance, the GFDL-ESM2M model has two nicely separated ENSO periods although they are relatively too prominent as compared with the reanalyses. There is an extensive Supplement and YouTube videos to illustrate the multi-annual variability of the data sets.

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

2017-11-15

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

The Observatory for Multi-Epoch Gravitational Lens Astrophysics (OMEGA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustakas, Leonidas A.; Bolton, Adam J.; Booth, Jeffrey T.; Bullock, James S.; Cheng, Edward; Coe, Dan; Fassnacht, Christopher D.; Gorjian, Varoujan; Heneghan, Cate; Keeton, Charles R.; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Lawrence, Charles R.; Marshall, Philip J.; Metcalf, R. Benton; Natarajan, Priyamvada; Nikzad, Shouleh; Peterson, Bradley M.; Wambsganss, Joachim

2008-07-01

Dark matter in a universe dominated by a cosmological constant seeds the formation of structure and is the scaffolding for galaxy formation. The nature of dark matter remains one of the fundamental unsolved problems in astrophysics and physics even though it represents 85% of the mass in the universe, and nearly one quarter of its total mass-energy budget. The mass function of dark matter "substructure" on sub-galactic scales may be enormously sensitive to the mass and properties of the dark matter particle. On astrophysical scales, especially at cosmological distances, dark matter substructure may only be detected through its gravitational influence on light from distant varying sources. Specifically, these are largely active galactic nuclei (AGN), which are accreting super-massive black holes in the centers of galaxies, some of the most extreme objects ever found. With enough measurements of the flux from AGN at different wavelengths, and their variability over time, the detailed structure around AGN, and even the mass of the super-massive black hole can be measured. The Observatory for Multi-Epoch Gravitational Lens Astrophysics (OMEGA) is a mission concept for a 1.5-m near-UV through near-IR space observatory that will be dedicated to frequent imaging and spectroscopic monitoring of ~100 multiply-imaged active galactic nuclei over the whole sky. Using wavelength-tailored dichroics with extremely high transmittance, efficient imaging in six channels will be done simultaneously during each visit to each target. The separate spectroscopic mode, engaged through a flip-in mirror, uses an image slicer spectrograph. After a period of many visits to all targets, the resulting multidimensional movies can then be analyzed to a) measure the mass function of dark matter substructure; b) measure precise masses of the accreting black holes as well as the structure of their accretion disks and their environments over several decades of physical scale; and c) measure a combination of Hubble's local expansion constant and cosmological distances to unprecedented precision. We present the novel OMEGA instrumentation suite, and how its integrated design is ideal for opening the time domain of known cosmologically-distant variable sources, to achieve the stated scientific goals.

A multi-model ensemble view of winter heat flux dynamics and the dipole mode in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Cabos, William

2017-02-01

Changes in surface heat fluxes affect several climate processes controlling the Mediterranean climate. These include the winter formation of deep waters, which is the primary driver of the Mediterranean Sea overturning circulation. Previous studies that characterize the spatial and temporal variability of surface heat flux anomalies over the basin reveal the existence of two statistically dominant patterns of variability: a monopole of uniform sign and an east-west dipole of opposite signs. In this work, we use the 12 regional climate model ensemble from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes that control the variability of heat fluxes over the Mediterranean Sea from interannual to decadal timescales (here defined as timescales > 6 year). Our findings suggest that while the monopole structure captures variability in the winter-to-winter domain-average net heat flux, the dipole pattern tracks changes in the Mediterranean climate that are connected to the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EA/WR) atmospheric teleconnection pattern. Furthermore, while the monopole exhibits significant differences in the spatial structure across the multi-model ensemble, the dipole pattern is very robust and more clearly identifiable in the anomaly maps of individual years. A heat budget analysis of the dipole pattern reveals that changes in winds associated with the EA/WR pattern exert dominant control through both a direct effect on the latent heat flux (i.e., wind speed) and an indirect effect through specific humidity (e.g., wind advection). A simple reconstruction of the heat flux variability over the deep-water formation regions of the Gulf of Lion and the Aegean Sea reveals that the combination of the monopole and dipole time series explains over 90 % of the heat flux variance in these regions. Given the important role that surface heat flux anomalies play in deep-water formation and the regional climate, improving our knowledge on the dynamics controlling the leading modes of heat flux variability may enhance our predictability of the climate of the Mediterranean area.

Effects of ice shelf basal melt variability on evolution of Thwaites Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Perego, M.

2017-12-01

Theory, modeling, and observations indicate that marine ice sheets on a retrograde bed, including Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, are only conditionally stable. Previous modeling studies have shown that rapid, unstable retreat can occur when steady ice-shelf basal melting causes the grounding line to retreat past restraining bedrock bumps. Here we explore the initiation and evolution of unstable retreat of Thwaites Glacier when the ice-shelf basal melt forcing includes temporal variability mimicking realistic climate variability. We use the three-dimensional, higher-order Model for Prediction Across Scales-Land Ice (MPASLI) model forced with an ice shelf basal melt parameterization derived from previous coupled ice sheet/ocean simulations. We add sinusoidal temporal variability to the melt parameterization that represents shoaling and deepening of Circumpolar Deep Water. We perform an ensemble of 250 year duration simulations with different values for the amplitude, period, and phase of the variability. Preliminary results suggest that, overall, variability leads to slower grounding line retreat and less mass loss than steady simulations. Short period (2 yr) variability leads to similar results as steady forcing, whereas decadal variability can result in up to one-third less mass loss. Differences in phase lead to a large range in mass loss/grounding line retreat, but it is always less than the steady forcing. The timing of ungrounding from each restraining bedrock bump, which is strongly affected by the melt variability, is the rate limiting factor, and variability-driven delays in ungrounding at each bump accumulate. Grounding line retreat in the regions between bedrock bumps is relatively unaffected by ice shelf melt variability. While the results are sensitive to the form of the melt parameterization and its variability, we conclude that decadal period ice shelf melt variability could potentially delay marine ice sheet instability by up to many decades. However, it does not alter the eventual mass loss and sea level rise at centennial scales. The potential differences are significant enough to highlight the need for further observations to constrain the amplitude and period of the modes of climate and ocean variability relevant to Antarctic ice shelf melting.

Multi-scale Material Parameter Identification Using LS-DYNA® and LS-OPT®

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stander, Nielen; Basudhar, Anirban; Basu, Ushnish

2015-06-15

Ever-tightening regulations on fuel economy and carbon emissions demand continual innovation in finding ways for reducing vehicle mass. Classical methods for computational mass reduction include sizing, shape and topology optimization. One of the few remaining options for weight reduction can be found in materials engineering and material design optimization. Apart from considering different types of materials by adding material diversity, an appealing option in automotive design is to engineer steel alloys for the purpose of reducing thickness while retaining sufficient strength and ductility required for durability and safety. Such a project was proposed and is currently being executed under themore » auspices of the United States Automotive Materials Partnership (USAMP) funded by the Department of Energy. Under this program, new steel alloys (Third Generation Advanced High Strength Steel or 3GAHSS) are being designed, tested and integrated with the remaining design variables of a benchmark vehicle Finite Element model. In this project the principal phases identified are (i) material identification, (ii) formability optimization and (iii) multi-disciplinary vehicle optimization. This paper serves as an introduction to the LS-OPT methodology and therefore mainly focuses on the first phase, namely an approach to integrate material identification using material models of different length scales. For this purpose, a multi-scale material identification strategy, consisting of a Crystal Plasticity (CP) material model and a Homogenized State Variable (SV) model, is discussed and demonstrated. The paper concludes with proposals for integrating the multi-scale methodology into the overall vehicle design.« less

Global Synthesis of Common Era Hydroclimate using Water Isotope Proxies from Multiple Archives: First Results from the PAGES Iso2k Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Partin, J. W.; Conroy, J. L.; Fischer, M.; Jones, M.; Jonkers, L.; McKay, N.; Stevenson, S.; Thompson, D. M.; Tyler, J. J.; Churakova (Sidorova), O.; Comas-Bru, L.; Dassie, E. P.; Dee, S.; DeLong, K. L.; Falster, G.; Martrat, B.

2017-12-01

Global, multi-proxy paleoclimate data syntheses for the Common Era (CE) have revealed a long-term cooling over the past millennium followed by a recent warming, with possible multi-decadal to centennial temperature variability in some regions. However, changes in atmospheric-oceanic circulation or hydroclimate have yet to be assessed on a global scale. Excellently suited to this purpose are proxies for the δ18O and δD of environmental waters found in glacier and ground ice, speleothems, corals, tree rings, and lake and marine sediments, which track common signals related to circulation and hydroclimate. Here, we utilize the new PAGES Iso2k database, a global compilation of CE δ18O and δD records, to investigate spatiotemporal variability and secular trends in global hydroclimate during the past 2 kyr. Overall, subtle but robust circulation shifts are apparent during the CE. We find preliminary evidence for secular trends in δ18O of lake water, precipitation/soil water, and seawater, with the direction and magnitude of trends varying by the type of environmental water (e.g., precipitation vs. seawater) and by region. We also find evidence for centennial-scale variations in regional δ18O and δD, for example a basin-wide Atlantic δ18Oseawater anomaly emerging during the 18th century and possible freshening of the western Pacific during the 20th century. On land, latitudinal trends in mean CE δ18Olake are consistent with present day gradients of δ18Oprecipitation, with evaporation exerting additional strong influence at mid-latitudes. In the ocean, coral δ18O in the western equatorial Pacific is found to reflect salinity rather than (or in addition to) temperature, providing potential quantitative constraints on past moisture balance from corals. We evaluate the dynamics of these spatiotemporal patterns through comparison with isotope-enabled model simulations, discuss relevant climatic inferences, and reexamine proxy interpretations.

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Multi-physics and multi-scale characterization of shale anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarout, J.; Nadri, D.; Delle Piane, C.; Esteban, L.; Dewhurst, D.; Clennell, M. B.

2012-12-01

Shales are the most abundant sedimentary rock type in the Earth's shallow crust. In the past decade or so, they have attracted increased attention from the petroleum industry as reservoirs, as well as more traditionally for their sealing capacity for hydrocarbon/CO2 traps or underground waste repositories. The effectiveness of both fundamental and applied shale research is currently limited by (i) the extreme variability of physical, mechanical and chemical properties observed for these rocks, and by (ii) the scarce data currently available. The variability in observed properties is poorly understood due to many factors that are often irrelevant for other sedimentary rocks. The relationships between these properties and the petrophysical measurements performed at the field and laboratory scales are not straightforward, translating to a scale dependency typical of shale behaviour. In addition, the complex and often anisotropic micro-/meso-structures of shales give rise to a directional dependency of some of the measured physical properties that are tensorial by nature such as permeability or elastic stiffness. Currently, fundamental understanding of the parameters controlling the directional and scale dependency of shale properties is far from complete. Selected results of a multi-physics laboratory investigation of the directional and scale dependency of some critical shale properties are reported. In particular, anisotropic features of shale micro-/meso-structures are related to the directional-dependency of elastic and fluid transport properties: - Micro-/meso-structure (μm to cm scale) characterization by electron microscopy and X-ray tomography; - Estimation of elastic anisotropy parameters on a single specimen using elastic wave propagation (cm scale); - Estimation of the permeability tensor using the steady-state method on orthogonal specimens (cm scale); - Estimation of the low-frequency diffusivity tensor using NMR method on orthogonal specimens (<μm scale). For each of the above properties, leading-edge experimental techniques have been associated with novel interpretation tools. In this contribution, these experimental and interpretation methods are described. Relationships between the measured properties and the corresponding micro-/meso-structural features are discussed. For example, P-wave velocity was measured along 100 different propagation paths on a single cylindrical shale specimen using miniature ultrasonic transducers. Assuming that (i) the elastic tensor of this shale is transversely isotropic; and (i) the sample has been cored perfectly perpendicular to the bedding plane (symmetry plane is horizontal), Thomsen's anisotropy parameters inverted from the measured velocities are: - P-wave velocity along the symmetry axis (perpendicular to the bedding plane) αo=3.45km/s; - P-wave anisotropy ɛ=0.12; - Parameter controlling the wave front geometry δ=0.058. A novel inversion algorithm allows for recovering these parameters without assuming a priori a horizontal bedding (symmetry) plane. The inversion of the same data set using this algorithm yields (i) αo=3.23km/s, ɛ=0.25 and δ=0.18, and (ii) the elastic symmetry axis is inclined of ω=30° with respect to the specimen's axis. Such difference can have strong impact on field applications (AVO, ray tracing, tomography).

Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

2012-04-01

Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

Statistical post-processing of seasonal multi-model forecasts: Why is it so hard to beat the multi-model mean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, Stefan

2017-04-01

Initialised climate forecasts on seasonal time scales, run several months or even years ahead, are now an integral part of the battery of products offered by climate services world-wide. The availability of seasonal climate forecasts from various modeling centres gives rise to multi-model ensemble forecasts. Post-processing such seasonal-to-decadal multi-model forecasts is challenging 1) because the cross-correlation structure between multiple models and observations can be complicated, 2) because the amount of training data to fit the post-processing parameters is very limited, and 3) because the forecast skill of numerical models tends to be low on seasonal time scales. In this talk I will review new statistical post-processing frameworks for multi-model ensembles. I will focus particularly on Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches, which are flexible enough to capture commonly made assumptions about collective and model-specific biases of multi-model ensembles. Despite the advances in statistical methodology, it turns out to be very difficult to out-perform the simplest post-processing method, which just recalibrates the multi-model ensemble mean by linear regression. I will discuss reasons for this, which are closely linked to the specific characteristics of seasonal multi-model forecasts. I explore possible directions for improvements, for example using informative priors on the post-processing parameters, and jointly modelling forecasts and observations.

Reconstructing Holocene glacier activity at Langfjordjøkelen, Arctic Norway, using multi-proxy fingerprinting of distal glacier-fed lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittmeier, Hella E.; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; Trachsel, Mathias

2015-04-01

Late Glacial and Holocene glacier fluctuations are important indicators of climate variability in the northern polar region and contain knowledge vital to understanding and predicting present and future climate changes. However, there still is a lack of robustly dated terrestrial climate records from Arctic Norway. Here, we present a high-resolution relative glacier activity record covering the past ∼10,000 cal. a BP from the northern outlet of the Langfjordjøkelen ice cap in Arctic Norway. This record is reconstructed from detailed geomorphic mapping, multi-proxy sedimentary fingerprinting and analyses of distal glacier-fed lake sediments. We used Principal Component Analysis to characterize sediments of glacial origin and trace them in a chain of downstream lakes. Of the variability in the sediment record of the uppermost Lake Jøkelvatnet, 73% can be explained by the first Principal Component axis and tied directly to upstream glacier erosion, whereas the glacial signal becomes weaker in the more distal Lakes Store Rundvatnet and Storvatnet. Magnetic susceptibility and titanium count rates were found to be the most suitable indicators of Holocene glacier activity in the distal glacier-fed lakes. The complete deglaciation of the valley of Sør-Tverrfjorddalen occurred ∼10,000 cal. a BP, followed by a reduced or absent glacier during the Holocene Thermal Optimum. The Langfjordjøkelen ice cap reformed with the onset of the Neoglacial ∼4100 cal. a BP, and the gradually increasing glacier activity culminated at the end of the Little Ice Age in the early 20th century. Over the past 2000 cal. a BP, the record reflects frequent high-amplitude glacier fluctuations. Periods of reduced glacier activity were centered around 1880, 1600, 1250 and 950 cal. a BP, while intervals of increased glacier activity occurred around 1680, 1090, 440 and 25 cal. a BP. The large-scale Holocene glacier activity of the Langfjordjøkelen ice cap is consistent with regional temperature proxy reconstructions and glacier variability across Norway. Long-term changes in the extent of the northern outlet of the Langfjordjøkelen ice cap largely followed trends in regional summer temperatures, whereas winter season atmospheric variability may have triggered decadal-scale glacial fluctuations and generally affected the amplitude of glacier events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas J.

This paper summarizes a number of perspectives that have emerged from the sustainability sciences in recent decades (NRC, 1999; Kates et al., 2001; NRC, 2006; Kates, 2010) that shed light on the role of place in multi-scale sustainability science and vice-versa, ranging from the importance of the co-production of knowledge for sustainable development to threats to a ''sense of place'' from global environmental and economic changes.

Navigating California's Stormy Seas: A Multi-Case Study of Presidential Leadership in the Midst of Fiscal Crisis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Kristin Lane

2012-01-01

California's fiscal crisis is more severe than those of past decades and as a result, the State's community colleges have experienced substantial cuts to their budgets. Multiple reductions in funding since 2008 have forced colleges to scale back their course offerings, reduce personnel, and limit student services. This lack of funding has created…

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Funk, C.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-01-01

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.

A new hybrid meta-heuristic algorithm for optimal design of large-scale dome structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaveh, A.; Ilchi Ghazaan, M.

2018-02-01

In this article a hybrid algorithm based on a vibrating particles system (VPS) algorithm, multi-design variable configuration (Multi-DVC) cascade optimization, and an upper bound strategy (UBS) is presented for global optimization of large-scale dome truss structures. The new algorithm is called MDVC-UVPS in which the VPS algorithm acts as the main engine of the algorithm. The VPS algorithm is one of the most recent multi-agent meta-heuristic algorithms mimicking the mechanisms of damped free vibration of single degree of freedom systems. In order to handle a large number of variables, cascade sizing optimization utilizing a series of DVCs is used. Moreover, the UBS is utilized to reduce the computational time. Various dome truss examples are studied to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method, as compared to some existing structural optimization techniques. The results indicate that the MDVC-UVPS technique is a powerful search and optimization method for optimizing structural engineering problems.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

PubMed Central

Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-01-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958–2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different. PMID:27713662

Multi-decadal analysis reveals contrasting patterns of resilience and decline in coral assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanner, Jason E.

2017-12-01

A 50-yr study of coral dynamics at Heron Island, on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, shows that community change on a single reef is highly variable and that while some areas of the reef are in decline, others are recovering well 40 yr after a major cyclonic disturbance that eliminated all corals in the study plot. At one site, the genus-level composition in 2012 was identical to that before the cyclone, although it took around 30 yr to recover, and there were still differences at the species level. The colony size structure of some species at this site, notably the dominant Acropora digitifera, which had over 40% cover in 2012, also recovered after 30 yr, although sub-dominant species still lacked large colonies even after 40 yr. Given the small scale of the individual study plots (1 m2), this shows an unexpected degree of determinism in assemblage structure. At a second site, however, both composition and size structure changed dramatically over the last 40 yr of the study as both external and internal factors altered local environmental conditions. At both sites, major changes in composition appear to be related to drying out of the reef crest due to changes in flow regimes and/or natural accretion. At the site that has recovered, erosion has reversed this drying out, whereas no such erosion has occurred at the second site. If such erosion occurs, or sea levels increase due to global warming, then the second site may also prove to be resilient over decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Contribution of Phenological and Physiological Variations on Northern Vegetation Productivity Changes over Last Three Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram

2015-01-01

Plant phenology and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts of phenology and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we investigate 1) how vegetation phenology and physiological status (maximum photosynthesis) are evolved over last three decades and 2) how such components (phenology and physiological status) contribute on inter-annual variation of the GPP during the last three decades. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed (GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd generation) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)) to extract larger scale phenology metrics (growing season start, end and duration); and productivity (i.e., growing season integrated vegetation index, GSIVI) to answer these questions. For evaluation purpose, we also introduced field-measured phenology and productivity datasets (e.g., FLUXNET) and possible remotely-sensed and modeled metrics at continental and regional scales. From this investigation, we found that onset of the growing season has advanced by 1.61 days per decade and the growing season end has delayed by 0.67 days per decade over the circumpolar region. This asymmetric extension of growing season results in a longer growing-season trend (2.96 days per decade) and widespread increasing vegetation-productivity trend (2.96 GSIVI per decade) over Northern land. However, the regionally-diverged phenology shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity, inter-annual variability and trend. We quantified that about 50 percent, 13 percent and 6.5 percent of Northern land's inter-annual variability are dominantly controlled by the onset of the growing season, the end of the growing season and the maximum photosynthetic state, respectively. Productivity characterization over the other approximately 30 percent region has been driven by these co-dominant drivers. Our study clearly shows that regionally different contribution of phenological and physiological components on characterizing vegetation production over the last three decades.

Hydrographical variability and major ecosystem changes as recorded in the growth of Arctica islandica from the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trofimova, Tamara; Andersson, Carin; Bonitz, Fabian

2017-04-01

Reconstruction of marine climate variability on regional to global scales requires a network of climatically sensitive annually resolved archives from key oceanographic locations. The small number of records existing to date impedes the application of a network approach. In this study, we aim at improving the spatial coverage of annually resolved paleo proxy records by investigating the impact of climate variability on sclerochronological records of A. islandica from the Viking Bank in the northern North Sea. The northern North Sea has an excellent oceanographic setting because its hydrography is primarily controlled by the major Atlantic water inflow to the North Sea. Using annual growth increment measurements of 30 shells we constructed a 265-year shell-growth chronology spanning the time interval AD 1748-2013. Chronology statistics (Rbar (>0.5) and EPS (>0.85)) indicate a robust signal of a common environmental forcing controlling shell growth for the major part of the record. Comparison with other sclerochronologies from the oceanographically related locations reveals a coherency on longer time scales, which is likely a response to a common environmental driver or a combination of such drivers. No significant correlation on the year-on-year level has been found between the chronology and time series of temperature and salinity from the area close to the study site. However, the timing of major hydrographical anomalies described for the region (Great Salinity Anomalies) coincide with a decrease in shell growth; likely in response to an impact on lower trophic levels, i.e. plankton composition and abundance. Spectral analysis of the chronology reveals a 21-26 year periodicity recorded in the shell growth. The variability on a similar time scale has been observed in multiple records from the North Atlantic and in model outputs. It has been suggested to represent one of the dominant scales of multi-decadal variability especially pronounced prior to the 20th century. In our chronology this variability is clearly observed prior to the 1920's and fades out towards present day. This change coincides with the most significant regime shift in the North Atlantic observed in the 20th-century, connected with dramatic warming and increasing Atlantic inflow. Hence, our data show that growth chronology from the Viking Bank region has a high potential to be used in climate variability studies and can significantly contribute to the development of a spatial sclerochronological network.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, M. J.; Heiser, M.

1998-01-01

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Eric A.

start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally- sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

Snowpack variations since AD 1150 in the Andes of Chile and Argentina (30°-37°S) inferred from rainfall, tree-ring and documentary records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masiokas, M. H.; Villalba, R.; Christie, D. A.; Betman, E.; Luckman, B. H.; Le Quesne, C.; Prieto, M. R.; Mauget, S.

2012-03-01

The Andean snowpack is the main source of freshwater and arguably the single most important natural resource for the populated, semi-arid regions of central Chile and central-western Argentina. However, apart from recent analyses of instrumental snowpack data, very little is known about the long term variability of this key natural resource. Here we present two complementary, annually-resolved reconstructions of winter snow accumulation in the southern Andes between 30°-37°S. The reconstructions cover the past 850 years and were developed using simple regression models based on snowpack proxies with different inherent limitations. Rainfall data from central Chile (very strongly correlated with snow accumulation values in the adjacent mountains) were used to extend a regional 1951-2010 snowpack record back to AD 1866. Subsequently, snow accumulation variations since AD 1150 were inferred from precipitation-sensitive tree-ring width series. The reconstructed snowpack values were validated with independent historical and instrumental information. An innovative time series analysis approach allowed the identification of the onset, duration and statistical significance of the main intra- to multi-decadal patterns in the reconstructions and indicates that variations observed in the last 60 years are not particularly anomalous when assessed in a multi-century context. In addition to providing new information on past variations for a highly relevant hydroclimatic variable in the southern Andes, the snowpack reconstructions can also be used to improve the understanding and modeling of related, larger-scale atmospheric features such as ENSO and the PDO.

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

2016-12-01

Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soon, Willie W.-H.

2005-08-01

This letter offers new evidence motivating a more serious consideration of the potential Arctic temperature responses as a consequence of the decadal, multidecadal and longer-term persistent forcing by the ever-changing solar irradiance both in terms of total solar irradiance (TSI, i.e., integrated over all wavelengths) and the related UV irradiance. The support for such a solar modulator can be minimally derived from the large (>75%) explained variance for the decadally-smoothed Arctic surface air temperatures (SATs) by TSI and from the time-frequency structures of the TSI and Arctic SAT variability as examined by wavelet analyses. The reconstructed Arctic SAT time series based on the inverse wavelet transform, which includes decadal (5-15 years) and multidecadal (40-80 years) variations and a longer-term trend, contains nonstationary but persistent features that are highly correlated with the Sun's intrinsic magnetic variability especially on multidecadal time scales.

Climate impact on malaria in northern Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Tourre, Yves M; Vignolles, Cécile; Viel, Christian; Mounier, Flore

2017-11-27

The Paluclim project managed by the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) found that total rainfall for a 3-month period is a confounding factor for the density of malaria vectors in the region of Nouna in the Sahel administrative territory of northern Burkina Faso. Following the models introduced in 1999 by Craig et al. and in 2003 by Tanser et al., a climate impact model for malaria risk (using different climate indices) was created. Several predictions of this risk at different temporal scales (i.e. seasonal, inter-annual and low-frequency) were assessed using this climate model. The main result of this investigation was the discovery of a significant link between malaria risk and low-frequency rainfall variability related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This result is critical for the health information systems in this region. Knowledge of the AMO phases would help local authorities to organise preparedness and prevention of malaria, which is of particular importance in the climate change context.

The climate sensitivity of food security in Mali - a historical perspective on availability and access dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, A.; Krishnamurthy, P. K.; Cousin, R.; Choularton, R. J.

2011-12-01

We present results based on an analysis of a 2005 livelihood survey of ~2000 rural households in ~200 villages scattered across Mali, a sparsely populated, large land-locked country in West Africa, to elucidate the role of climate variability and change in shaping availability and access dimensions of food security. The Comprehensive Food Security Vulnerability Analysis is a recurrent survey carried out by the World Food Programme and in-country partners to map out nutritional and socio-economic status during normal (~food secure) conditions in the hope of understanding underlying cause(s) and prevent the next food security crisis. We set the spatial characterization of food security that emerges from the CFSVA against the background of a varying climate, on intra-seasonal, interannual and multi-decadal time scales: through elucidation of the influence of climate on agricultural production we arrive at an interpretation of structural and conjunctural events affecting food security. We conclude with a discussion of possible interventions to reduce vulnerability.

Multi-Scale Observation of Time-Variable Interactions of a Stream and its Valley Bottom During a Storm Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hixson, J.; Ward, A. S.; Schmadel, N.

2015-12-01

The exchange of water and solutes across the stream-hyporheic-riparian-hillslope continuum is controlled by the interaction of dynamic hydrological processes with the underlying geological setting. Our current understanding of exchange processes is primarily based on field observations collected during baseflow conditions, with few studies considering time-variable stream-aquifer interactions during storm events. We completed ten sets of four in-stream tracer slug injections during and after a large storm event in a headwater catchment at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon. The injections were performed in three adjacent 50-meter study reaches, enabling comparison of spatial heterogeneity in transport processes. Reach-scale data demonstrate apparent trends with discharge in both transient storage and long-term storage (commonly "channel water balance"). Comparison of flowpath-scale observations from a network of monitoring wells to reach-scale observations showed that the advective timescale changed with discharge making it difficult to infer process from simple, reach-scale tracer studies. Overall, our results highlight the opportunities and challenges for interpretation of multi-scale solute tracer data along the stream-hyporheic-riparian-hillslope continuum.

Continuing the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, O.; Pilewskie, P.; Kopp, G.; Richard, E. C.; Sparn, T.; Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

Radiative energy from the Sun establishes the basic climate of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and defines the terrestrial environment that supports all life on the planet. External solar variability on a wide range of scales ubiquitously affects the Earth system, and combines with internal forcings, including anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols, and natural modes such as ENSO, and volcanic forcing, to define past, present, and future climates. Understanding these effects requires continuous measurements of total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance that meet the stringent requirements of climate-quality accuracy and stability over time. The current uninterrupted 39-year total solar irradiance (TSI) climate data record is the result of several overlapping instruments flown on different missions. Measurement continuity, required to link successive instruments to the existing data record to discern long-term trends makes this important climate data record susceptible to loss in the event of a gap in measurements. While improvements in future instrument accuracy will reduce the risk of a gap, the 2017 launch of TSIS-1 ensures continuity of the solar irradiance record into the next decade. There are scientific and programmatic motivations for addressing the challenges of maintaining the solar irradiance data record beyond TSIS-1. The science rests on well-founded requirements of establishing a trusted climate observing network that can monitor trends in fundamental climate variables. Programmatically, the long-term monitoring of solar irradiance must be balanced within the broader goals of NASA Earth Science. New concepts for a low-risk, cost efficient observing strategy is a priority. New highly capable small spacecraft, low-cost launch vehicles and a multi-decadal plan to provide overlapping TSI and SSI data records are components of a low risk/high reliability plan with lower annual cost than past implementations. This paper provides the justification for prioritizing solar irradiance observations and plans for extending the record into the next two decades that adheres to the rigors of quantifiable methods for meeting objectives.

Radio variability in the Phoenix Deep Survey at 1.4 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, P. J.; Drury, J. A.; Bell, M. E.; Murphy, T.; Gaensler, B. M.

2016-09-01

We use archival data from the Phoenix Deep Survey to investigate the variable radio source population above 1 mJy beam-1 at 1.4 GHz. Given the similarity of this survey to other such surveys we take the opportunity to investigate the conflicting results which have appeared in the literature. Two previous surveys for variability conducted with the Very Large Array (VLA) achieved a sensitivity of 1 mJy beam-1. However, one survey found an areal density of radio variables on time-scales of decades that is a factor of ˜4 times greater than a second survey which was conducted on time-scales of less than a few years. In the Phoenix deep field we measure the density of variable radio sources to be ρ = 0.98 deg-2 on time-scales of 6 months to 8 yr. We make use of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer infrared cross-ids, and identify all variable sources as an active galactic nucleus of some description. We suggest that the discrepancy between previous VLA results is due to the different time-scales probed by each of the surveys, and that radio variability at 1.4 GHz is greatest on time-scales of 2-5 yr.

Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; ...

2015-06-01

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enablingmore » improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Classification of riparian forest species and health condition using multi-temporal and hyperspatial imagery from unmanned aerial system.

PubMed

Michez, Adrien; Piégay, Hervé; Lisein, Jonathan; Claessens, Hugues; Lejeune, Philippe

2016-03-01

Riparian forests are critically endangered many anthropogenic pressures and natural hazards. The importance of riparian zones has been acknowledged by European Directives, involving multi-scale monitoring. The use of this very-high-resolution and hyperspatial imagery in a multi-temporal approach is an emerging topic. The trend is reinforced by the recent and rapid growth of the use of the unmanned aerial system (UAS), which has prompted the development of innovative methodology. Our study proposes a methodological framework to explore how a set of multi-temporal images acquired during a vegetative period can differentiate some of the deciduous riparian forest species and their health conditions. More specifically, the developed approach intends to identify, through a process of variable selection, which variables derived from UAS imagery and which scale of image analysis are the most relevant to our objectives.The methodological framework is applied to two study sites to describe the riparian forest through two fundamental characteristics: the species composition and the health condition. These characteristics were selected not only because of their use as proxies for the riparian zone ecological integrity but also because of their use for river management.The comparison of various scales of image analysis identified the smallest object-based image analysis (OBIA) objects (ca. 1 m(2)) as the most relevant scale. Variables derived from spectral information (bands ratios) were identified as the most appropriate, followed by variables related to the vertical structure of the forest. Classification results show good overall accuracies for the species composition of the riparian forest (five classes, 79.5 and 84.1% for site 1 and site 2). The classification scenario regarding the health condition of the black alders of the site 1 performed the best (90.6%).The quality of the classification models developed with a UAS-based, cost-effective, and semi-automatic approach competes successfully with those developed using more expensive imagery, such as multi-spectral and hyperspectral airborne imagery. The high overall accuracy results obtained by the classification of the diseased alders open the door to applications dedicated to monitoring of the health conditions of riparian forest. Our methodological framework will allow UAS users to manage large imagery metric datasets derived from those dense time series.

Past climate variability between 97 and 7 ka reconstructed from a multi proxy speleothem record from Western Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winterhalder, Sophie; Scholz, Denis; Mangini, Augusto; Spötl, Christoph; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Pajón, Jesús M.

2016-04-01

The tropical hydrological cycle plays a key role in regulating global climate, mainly through the export of heat and moisture to higher latitudes, and is highly sensitive to climate change, for instance due to changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous work on Caribbean stalagmites suggests a strong connection of precipitation variability to North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperatures on multidecadal to millenial timescales (Fensterer et al., 2012; Fensterer et al., 2013; Winter et al., 2011). Cold phases in the NA potentially lead to a southward shift of the ITCZ and thus drier conditions in Cuba. On orbital timescales, Cuban stalagmites suggest a relation of speleothem δ18O values with the δ18O value of Caribbean surface waters (Fensterer et al., 2013). Here we present an expansion of the Cuban speleothem record covering the whole last glacial period from the end of MIS5c (97 ka BP) until 7 ka with hiatuses between 93-80 ka, 37-35 ka and 13-10 ka. Stalagmite Cuba medio (CM) has been precisely dated with 60 230Th/U-ages, mainly performed by the MC-ICPMS technique. The δ18O and δ13C records are completed by a continuous, high resolution LA-ICPMS trace element profile. These data allow for the first time to establish a multi-proxy climate reconstruction for the North Western Caribbean at decadal to centennial resolution for this period. The long-term variability of the δ18O values probably reflects rainfall amount in Cuba. The response to some Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich stadials confirms the previously observed correlation between Caribbean and NA climate variability. However, this connection is not clearly imprinted throughout the record. Furthermore, trace elements, such as Mg, do not proof without ambiguity drier conditions in Cuba during NA cold events, such as the Heinrich stadials. This suggests that climate variability in Cuba was more complex during the last 100ka, and that the NA was not the only driving factor. Due to the competing influence of the NA, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean, the proposed severe changes in the tropical hydrological cycle during that time (such as variations of the ITCZ, insolation and the thermohaline circulation (THC)) have potentially lead to significant changes in sources and trajectories of precipitation in Western Cuba. Our record, thus, provides an important contribution towards understanding and differentiating these parameters on Caribbean climate during glacial climate changes. References: Fensterer, C., Scholz, D., Hoffmann, D., Spötl, C., Pajón, J.M., Mangini, A., 2012. Cuban stalagmite suggests relationship between Caribbean precipitation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the past 1.3 ka. The Holocene, 0959683612449759. Fensterer, C., Scholz, D., Hoffmann, D.L., Spötl, C., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Horn, C., Pajón, J.M., Mangini, A., 2013. Millennial-scale climate variability during the last 12.5 ka recorded in a Caribbean speleothem. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 361, 143-151. Winter, A., Miller, T., Kushnir, Y., Sinha, A., Timmermann, A., Jury, M.R., Gallup, C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., 2011. Evidence for 800years of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability from a Puerto Rican speleothem. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 308, 23-28.

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

Robust multiscale prediction of Po River discharge using a twofold AR-NN approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessio, Silvia; Taricco, Carla; Rubinetti, Sara; Zanchettin, Davide; Rubino, Angelo; Mancuso, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean area is among the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades and potentially substantial future drying according to climate projections. However, significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates these long-term hydrological trend as observed, for instance, in North Italian precipitation and river discharge records. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. In order to forecast short and noisy hydroclimatic time series, we apply a twofold statistical approach that we improved with respect to previous works [1]. Our prediction strategy consists in the application of two independent methods that use autoregressive models and feed-forward neural networks. Since all prediction methods work better on clean signals, the predictions are not performed directly on the series, but rather on each significant variability components extracted with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). In this contribution, we will illustrate the multiscale prediction approach and its application to the case of decadal prediction of annual-average Po River discharges (Italy). The discharge record is available for the last 209 years and allows to work with both interannual and decadal time-scale components. Fifteen-year forecasts obtained with both methods robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the second half of the 2020s. We will discuss advantages and limitations of the proposed statistical approach in the light of the current capabilities of decadal climate prediction systems based on numerical climate models, toward an integrated dynamical and statistical approach for the interannual-to-decadal prediction of hydroclimate variability in medium-size river basins. [1] Alessio et. al., Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core, Clim. of the Past, 8, 831-839, 2012.

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E.; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change. PMID:26295478

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Wet Season Rainfall Totals in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, D. W.; Lopez, L.; Granato-Souza, D.; Barbosa, A. C. M. C.; Torbenson, M.; Villalba, R.; Pereira, G. D. A.; Feng, S.; Schongart, J.; Cook, E. R.

2017-12-01

The Amazon Basin is a globally important center of deep atmospheric convection, energy balance, and biodiversity, but only a handful of weather stations in this vast Basin have recorded rainfall measurements for at least 50 years. The available rainfall and river level observations suggest that the hydrologic cycle in the Amazon may have become amplified in the last 40-years, with more extreme rainfall and streamflow seasonality, deeper droughts, and more severe flooding. These changes in the largest hydrological system on earth may be early evidence of the expected consequences of anthropogenic climate change and deforestation in the coming century. Placing these observed and simulated changes in the context of natural climate variability during the late Holocene is a significant challenge for high-resolution paleoclimatology. We have developed exactly dated and well-replicated annual tree-ring chronologies from two native Amazonian tree species (Cedrela sp and Centrolobium microchaete). These moisture sensitive chronologies have been used to compute two reconstructions of wet season rainfall totals, one in the southern Amazon based on Centrolobium and another in the eastern equatorial Amazon using Cedrela. Both reconstructions are over 200-years long and extend the available instrumental observations in each region by over 150-years. These reconstructions are well correlated with the same regional and large-scale climate dynamics that govern the inter-annual variability of the instrumental wet season rainfall totals. Increased multi-decadal variability is reconstructed after 1950 with the Centrolobium chronologies in the southern Amazon. The Cedrela reconstruction from the eastern Amazon exhibits changes in the spatial pattern of correlation with regional rainfall stations and the large-scale sea surface temperature field after 1990 that may be consistent with recent changes in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in March over the western Atlantic and South American sector.

Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.

2017-12-01

An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

PubMed

Penaluna, Brooke E; Dunham, Jason B; Railsback, Steve F; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Diel, Seasonal, and Interannual Variability in Abundance of Major Mesozooplankton Taxa in the Sargasso Sea as Related to Changing Environmental Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, J.; Steinberg, D. K.; Latour, R. J.

2016-02-01

Temporal changes in mesozooplankton community structure affect planktonic food web interactions and biogeochemical cycling. Epipelagic mesozooplankton biomass in the Sargasso Sea has increased over the last two decades, with a related increase in zooplankton-mediated carbon export. Unknown, however, is what are the patterns and variability at different temporal scales (diel, seasonal, and interannual) in abundance of each major zooplankton taxon, and how do these patterns relate to physical and other environmental changes? We enumerated major taxa of mesozooplankton collected from monthly day and night net tows in the epipelagic zone at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea from 1999 to 2010. Abundances of each taxon were determined using a ZooScan optical imaging system and microscopy. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were used to determine what environmental parameters best explain abundance of major taxa. We used annual averages to consider broader patterns. Zooplankton taxa with the most pronounced diel vertical migration (i.e., night:day ratio, N:D, >>1) included Limacina spp. pteropods (N:D=2.02), euphausiids (1.93), calanoid copepods (1.34), and heteropods (1.34). Taxa with a pronounced spring abundance peak included chaetognaths, larvaceans, and Limacina spp. pteropods, while harpacticoid copepods peaked in late summer, and calanoid copepods in both spring and summer. Environmental variables affecting abundance differed amongst taxa. For example, calanoid copepod density was highly influenced by the abundance of a major predator- chaetognaths. Multi-year densities of calanoid copepods and ostracods both increased with increasing Water Column Stratification Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, indicating warmer sea surface temperatures are favorable for these taxa. We discuss how these temporal patterns at different scales help predict effects of global climate change on the zooplankton community.

HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

EPA Science Inventory

High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Broderick, Ciaran; Burt, Timothy P.; Curley, Mary; Duffy, Catriona; Hall, Julia; Harrigan, Shaun; Matthews, Tom K. R.; Macdonald, Neil; McCarthy, Gerard; McCarthy, Mark P.; Mullan, Donal; Noone, Simon; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ryan, Ciara; Sweeney, John; Thorne, Peter W.; Walsh, Seamus; Wilby, Robert L.

2018-03-01

A continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2011-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

INTERDISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Consensus of Multi-Agent Systems with Prestissimo Scale-Free Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hong-Yong; Lu, Lan; Cao, Ke-Cai; Zhang, Si-Ying

2010-04-01

In this paper, the relations of the network topology and the moving consensus of multi-agent systems are studied. A consensus-prestissimo scale-free network model with the static preferential-consensus attachment is presented on the rewired link of the regular network. The effects of the static preferential-consensus BA network on the algebraic connectivity of the topology graph are compared with the regular network. The robustness gain to delay is analyzed for variable network topology with the same scale. The time to reach the consensus is studied for the dynamic network with and without communication delays. By applying the computer simulations, it is validated that the speed of the convergence of multi-agent systems can be greatly improved in the preferential-consensus BA network model with different configuration.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M; Cook, Edward R

2016-03-16

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and north-south anti-phasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, the Balkans, etc) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the Western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the Western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15-year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude there is an 89% likelihood this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

PubMed

Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien

2017-01-01

Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.

Predicting coral bleaching in response to environmental stressors using 8 years of global-scale data.

PubMed

Yee, Susan Harrell; Barron, Mace G

2010-02-01

Coral reefs have experienced extensive mortality over the past few decades as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. There is an increasing realization that other environmental factors, including water mixing, solar radiation, water depth, and water clarity, interact with temperature to either exacerbate bleaching or protect coral from mass bleaching. The relative contribution of these factors to variability in mass bleaching at a global scale has not been quantified, but can provide insights when making large-scale predictions of mass bleaching events. Using data from 708 bleaching surveys across the globe, a framework was developed to predict the probability of moderate or severe bleaching as a function of key environmental variables derived from global-scale remote-sensing data. The ability of models to explain spatial and temporal variability in mass bleaching events was quantified. Results indicated approximately 20% improved accuracy of predictions of bleaching when solar radiation and water mixing, in addition to elevated temperature, were incorporated into models, but predictive accuracy was variable among regions. Results provide insights into the effects of environmental parameters on bleaching at a global scale.

Characterizing Air Temperature Changes in the Tarim Basin over 1960–2012

PubMed Central

Peng, Dongmei; Wang, Xiujun; Zhao, Chenyi; Wu, Xingren; Jiang, Fengqing; Chen, Pengxiang

2014-01-01

There has been evidence of warming rate varying largely over space and between seasons. However, little has been done to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin, northwest China. In this study, we collected daily air temperature from 19 meteorological stations for the period of 1960–2012, and analyzed annual mean temperature (AMT), the annual minimum (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax), and mean temperatures of all twelve months and four seasons and their anomalies. Trend analyses, standard deviation of the detrended anomaly (SDDA) and correlations were carried out to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of various mean air temperatures. Our data showed that increasing trend was much greater in the Tmin (0.55°C/10a) than in the AMT (0.25°C/10a) and Tmax (0.12°C/10a), and the fluctuation followed the same order. There were large spatial variations in the increasing trends of both AMT (from −0.09 to 0.43 °C/10a) and Tmin (from 0.15 to 1.12°C/10a). Correlation analyses indicated that AMT had a significantly linear relationship with Tmin and the mean temperatures of four seasons. There were also pronounced changes in the monthly air temperature from November to March at decadal time scale. The seasonality (i.e., summer and winter difference) of air temperature was stronger during the period of 1960–1979 than over the recent three decades. Our preliminary analyses indicated that local environmental conditions (such as elevation) might be partly responsible for the spatial variability, and large scale climate phenomena might have influences on the temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin. In particular, there was a significant correlation between index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and air temperature of May (P = 0.004), and between the index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and air temperature of July (P = 0.026) over the interannual to decadal time scales. PMID:25375648

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort.

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

The impact of AMO and NAO in Western Iberia during the Late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Leira, M.; Trigo, R.; Vázquez-Loureiro, D.; Carballeira, R.; Sáez, A.

2016-12-01

High mountain lakes in the Iberian Peninsula are particularly sensitive to the influence of North Atlantic large-scale modes of climate variability due to their geographical position and the reduced anthropic disturbances. In this context, Serra da Estrela (Portugal), the westernmost range of the Sistema Central, constitutes a physical barrier to air masses coming from the Atlantic Ocean. However, long-term climate reconstructions have not yet been conducted. We present a climate reconstruction of this region based on facies analysis, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter and a preliminary study of diatom assemblages from the sedimentary record of Lake Peixão (1677 m a.s.l.; Serra da Estrela) for the last ca. 3500 years. A multivariate statistical analysis has been performed to recognize the main environmental factors controlling the sedimentary infill. Our results reveal that two main processes explain the 70% of the total variance. Thus, changes in primary productivity, reflected in organic matter accumulation, and variations in runoff, related to external particles input, explain 53% and 17% respectively. Additionally, evidence of changes in productivity and water level regime recorded as variations in diatom assemblages correlate well with our interpretations. A comparison between the lake productivity changes and previous Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) reconstructions shows a good correlation, suggesting this climate mode as the main driver over lacustrine primary productivity at multi-decadal scales. In turn, changes in terrigenous inputs, linked to precipitation, seem to be more influenced by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Hence, our results highlight that although the climate regime in this area is clearly influenced by the NAO, the AMO also plays a key role at long-term time-scales.

Simulating Salt Movement and Transformation using a Coupled Reactive Transport Model in Variably-Saturated Groundwater Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakoli Kivi, S.; Bailey, R. T.; Gates, T.

2016-12-01

Salinization is one of the major concerns in irrigated agricultural landscapes. Increasing salinity concentrations are due principally to evaporative concentration; dissolution of salts from weathered minerals and bedrock; and a high water table that results from excessive irrigation, canal seepage, and a lack of efficient drainage systems; leading to decreasing crop yield. High groundwater salinity loading to nearby river systems also impacts downstream areas, with saline river water diverted for application on irrigated fields. In this study, a solute transport model coupled with equilibrium chemistry reactions has been developed to simulate transport of individual salt ions in regional-scale aquifer systems and thereby investigate strategies for salinity remediation. The physically-based numerical model is based on the UZF-RT3D variably-saturated, multi-species groundwater reactive transport modeling code, and accounts for advection, dispersion, carbon and nitrogen cycling, oxidation-reduction reactions, and salt ion equilibrium chemistry reactions such as complexation, ion exchange, and precipitation/dissolution. Each major salt ion (sulfate, chloride, bicarbonate, calcium, sodium, magnesium, potassium) is included. The model has been tested against measured soil salinity at a small scale (soil profile) and against soil salinity, groundwater salinity, and groundwater salinity loading to surface water at the regional scale (500 km2) in the Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV) in southeastern Colorado, an area acutely affected by salinization for many decades and greatly influenced by gypsum deposits. Preliminary results of using the model in scenario analysis suggest that increasing irrigation efficiency, sealing earthen canals, and rotational fallowing of land can decrease the groundwater salt load to the Arkansas River by 50 to 70% and substantially lower soil salinity in the root zone.

What Caused the Winter Drought in Western Nepal during Recent Years?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, S-Y; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Gillies, R.

Western Nepal has experienced consecutive and worsened winter drought conditions since 2000 culminating in a severe drought episode during 2008-2009. In this study, the meteorological conditons and a historical pespective of the winter droughts in western Nepal were analyzed using respectively instumental records and a paleoclimatic drought index. Althought decadal-scale drought conditions were found to be recurrent in the paleoclimate record, the severity of the recent decadal drought (since 2000) clearly stands out in the 700 years of record and, this is suggestive of potential anthropogenic influences in the recent decades. Meteorological diagnosis using atmospheric reanalysis in the recent decadesmore » revealed that (1) winter drought in western Nepal is linked to the Arctic Oscillation and its decadal variability, which initiates a tropospheric short-wave train across the Europe, Eurasia and South Asia, and that (2) the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean likely contributes to the suppression of rainfall through enhanced local Hadley circultion. It is therefore conceivable that the recent spells of decadal drought in Nepal drought are symptomatic of both natural variability and anthropogenic influences.« less

Non-stationary dynamics in the bouncing ball: A wavelet perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Behera, Abhinna K., E-mail: abhinna@iiserkol.ac.in; Panigrahi, Prasanta K., E-mail: pprasanta@iiserkol.ac.in; Sekar Iyengar, A. N., E-mail: ansekar.iyengar@saha.ac.in

2014-12-01

The non-stationary dynamics of a bouncing ball, comprising both periodic as well as chaotic behavior, is studied through wavelet transform. The multi-scale characterization of the time series displays clear signatures of self-similarity, complex scaling behavior, and periodicity. Self-similar behavior is quantified by the generalized Hurst exponent, obtained through both wavelet based multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis and Fourier methods. The scale dependent variable window size of the wavelets aptly captures both the transients and non-stationary periodic behavior, including the phase synchronization of different modes. The optimal time-frequency localization of the continuous Morlet wavelet is found to delineate the scales corresponding tomore » neutral turbulence, viscous dissipation regions, and different time varying periodic modulations.« less

Centennial-scale winter climate variability over the last two millennia in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on paired δ18O and Mg/Ca in Globorotalia truncatulinoides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortiz, V.; Thirumalai, K.; Richey, J. N.; Quinn, T. M.

2014-12-01

We present a replicated record of paired foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca variations in multi-cores collected from the Garrison Basin (26º43'N, 93º55'W) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Using δ18O (sea surface temperature, SST; sea surface salinity, SSS proxy) and Mg/Ca (SST proxy) variations in non-encrusted planktic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides we produce time series spanning the last two millennia that is characterized by centennial-scale climate variability. We interpret geochemical variations in G. truncatulinoides to reflect winter climate variability because data from a sediment trap, located ~350 km east of the core site, reveal that annual flux of G. truncatulinoides is heavily weighted towards winter (peak production in January-February; Spear et al., 2011). Similar centennial-scale variability is also observed in the foraminiferal geochemistry of Globigerinoides ruber in the same multi-cores, which likely reflect mean annual climate variations. Our replicated results and comparisons to other SST reconstructions from the region lend confidence that the northern GOM surface ocean underwent large, centennial-scale variability, most likely dominated by changes in winter climate. This variability occurred in a time period where climate forcing is small and background conditions are similar to pre-industrial times. References: Spear, J.W.; Poore, R.Z., and Quinn, T.M., 2011, Globorotalia truncatulinoides (dextral) Mg/Ca as a proxy for Gulf of Mexico winter mixed-layer temperature: Evidence from a sediment trap in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Micropaleontology, 80, 53-61.

An Investigation of the Hydroclimate Variability of Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. A.; Semazzi, F. H. M.

2015-12-01

The flow of the Victoria Nile, and the productivity of the dams along it, is determined by the level of Lake Victoria, which is primarily dictated by the rainfall and temperature variability over the Lake Victoria Basin. Notwithstanding the indisputable decline of water resources over the lake basin during the Long Rains of March - May, there is a strong indication based on IPCC climate projections that this trend, which has persisted for several decades, will reverse in the next few decades. This phenomenon has come to be known as the Eastern-Central African climate change paradox and could have profound implications on sustainable development for the next few decades in Lake Victoria Basin. The purpose of this study is to investigate the climate variability associated with the East African Climate Change Paradox for the recent decades. This research analyzes observations to understand the sources of variability and potential physical mechanisms related to the decline in precipitation over Eastern Africa. We then investigate the hydrological factors involved in the decline of Lake Victoria levels in the context of the decline in rainfall. While East Africa has been experiencing persistent decline of the Long Rains for multiple decades, this same decline is not seen in annual rainfall. The remaining seasons show an increase in rainfall which is compensating for the decline of the Long Rains. It is possible that the Long Rains season is shifting in such a way that the season starts earlier, in February, and ending sooner. The corresponding annual Lake Victoria levels modeled using observed rainfall do not decline in the recent decades, except when the Long Rains seasonal variability is considered without variability from other seasons. This shift could impact hydroelectric power planning on a monthly or seasonal time scale, and could potentially have a large impact on agriculture, since it would shift the growing season in the region.

Probabilistic simulation of multi-scale composite behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liaw, D. G.; Shiao, M. C.; Singhal, S. N.; Chamis, Christos C.

1993-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the probabilistic composite material properties at all composite scale levels due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties and in the fabrication process variables. The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of material properties. The sensitivity of the probabilistic composite material property to each random variable is determined. This information can be used to reduce undesirable uncertainties in material properties at the macro scale of the composite by reducing the uncertainties in the most influential random variables at the micro scale. This methodology was implemented into the computer code PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in the material properties of a typical laminate and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The experimental data of composite material properties at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN.

Hierarchical coarse-graining model for photosystem II including electron and excitation-energy transfer processes.

PubMed

Matsuoka, Takeshi; Tanaka, Shigenori; Ebina, Kuniyoshi

2014-03-01

We propose a hierarchical reduction scheme to cope with coupled rate equations that describe the dynamics of multi-time-scale photosynthetic reactions. To numerically solve nonlinear dynamical equations containing a wide temporal range of rate constants, we first study a prototypical three-variable model. Using a separation of the time scale of rate constants combined with identified slow variables as (quasi-)conserved quantities in the fast process, we achieve a coarse-graining of the dynamical equations reduced to those at a slower time scale. By iteratively employing this reduction method, the coarse-graining of broadly multi-scale dynamical equations can be performed in a hierarchical manner. We then apply this scheme to the reaction dynamics analysis of a simplified model for an illuminated photosystem II, which involves many processes of electron and excitation-energy transfers with a wide range of rate constants. We thus confirm a good agreement between the coarse-grained and fully (finely) integrated results for the population dynamics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual runoff and evapotranspiration of forestlands and non-forestlands in selected basins of the Loess Plateau of China.

Treesearch

Yanhui Wang; Pengtao Yu; Karl-Heinz Feger; Xiaohua Wei; Ge Sun; et al

2011-01-01

Large-scale forestation has been undertaken over decades principally to control the serious soil erosion in the Loess Plateau of China. A quantitative assessment of the hydrological effects of forestation, especially on basin water yield, is critical for the sustainable forestry development within this dry region. In this study, we constructed the multi-annual water...

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Influences of roughness on the inertial mechanism of turbulent boundary-layer scale separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Rachel

Measurements and scaling analyses are conducted to clarify the combined effects of roughness and Reynolds number on momentum transport in the rough-wall zero pressure gradient turbulent boundary layer. A series of multi-sensor hot-wire experiments are presented that cover nearly a decade in Reynolds number and nearly three decades in the inner-normalized sand grain roughness. This dissertation utilizes the difference between two velocity-vorticity correlations to represent the turbulent inertia term in the statement of the mean dynamics for turbulent boundary layer flow. Analyses focus on the first term on the right hand side of the equation, because it is physically affiliated with change-of-scale effects (Tennekes and Lumley, 1972). Similarity analysis, streamwise correlations, and spectral methods are performed to elucidate the scaling behaviors of the turbulent inertia term relative to the mean dynamics. The present results reveal complex behaviors in the long-time statistics of the velocity-vorticity correlation that exhibit both Reynolds number and roughness dependencies. The results broadly support the combined roughness-Reynolds number description provided by Mehdi et al, (2013).

Interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric radiocarbon reveals natural variability of Southern Ocean winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, K. B.; Fletcher, S. E. M.; Bianchi, D.; Beaulieu, C.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hogg, A. G.; Iudicone, D.; Lintner, B.; Naegler, T.; Reimer, P. J.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R. D.

2011-01-01

Tree ring Δ14C data (Reimer et al., 2004; McCormac et al., 2004) indicate that atmospheric Δ14C varied on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, in both hemispheres, over the pre-industrial period AD 950-1830. Although the Northern and Southern Hemispheric Δ14C records display similar variability, it is difficult from these data alone to distinguish between variations driven by 14CO2 production in the upper atmosphere (Stuiver, 1980) and exchanges between carbon reservoirs (Siegenthaler, 1980). Here we consider rather the Interhemispheric Gradient in atmospheric Δ14C as revealing of the background pre-bomb air-sea Disequilbrium Flux between 14CO2 and CO2. As the global maximum of the Disequilibrium Flux is squarely centered in the open ocean regions of the Southern Ocean, relatively modest perturbations to the winds over this region drive significant perturbations to the Interhemispheric Gradient. The analysis presented here implies that changes to Southern Ocean windspeeds are likely a main driver of the observed variability in the Interhemispheric Gradient over 950-1830, and further, that this variability may be larger than the Southern Ocean wind trends that have been reported for recent decades (notably 1980-2004). This interpretation also implies a significant weakening of the winds over the Southern Ocean within a few decades of AD 1375, associated with the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The driving forces that could have produced such a shift in the winds remain unkown.

Modeling Time-Dependent Behavior of Concrete Affected by Alkali Silica Reaction in Variable Environmental Conditions.

PubMed

Alnaggar, Mohammed; Di Luzio, Giovanni; Cusatis, Gianluca

2017-04-28

Alkali Silica Reaction (ASR) is known to be a serious problem for concrete worldwide, especially in high humidity and high temperature regions. ASR is a slow process that develops over years to decades and it is influenced by changes in environmental and loading conditions of the structure. The problem becomes even more complicated if one recognizes that other phenomena like creep and shrinkage are coupled with ASR. This results in synergistic mechanisms that can not be easily understood without a comprehensive computational model. In this paper, coupling between creep, shrinkage and ASR is modeled within the Lattice Discrete Particle Model (LDPM) framework. In order to achieve this, a multi-physics formulation is used to compute the evolution of temperature, humidity, cement hydration, and ASR in both space and time, which is then used within physics-based formulations of cracking, creep and shrinkage. The overall model is calibrated and validated on the basis of experimental data available in the literature. Results show that even during free expansions (zero macroscopic stress), a significant degree of coupling exists because ASR induced expansions are relaxed by meso-scale creep driven by self-equilibriated stresses at the meso-scale. This explains and highlights the importance of considering ASR and other time dependent aging and deterioration phenomena at an appropriate length scale in coupled modeling approaches.

Modeling Time-Dependent Behavior of Concrete Affected by Alkali Silica Reaction in Variable Environmental Conditions

PubMed Central

Alnaggar, Mohammed; Di Luzio, Giovanni; Cusatis, Gianluca

2017-01-01

Alkali Silica Reaction (ASR) is known to be a serious problem for concrete worldwide, especially in high humidity and high temperature regions. ASR is a slow process that develops over years to decades and it is influenced by changes in environmental and loading conditions of the structure. The problem becomes even more complicated if one recognizes that other phenomena like creep and shrinkage are coupled with ASR. This results in synergistic mechanisms that can not be easily understood without a comprehensive computational model. In this paper, coupling between creep, shrinkage and ASR is modeled within the Lattice Discrete Particle Model (LDPM) framework. In order to achieve this, a multi-physics formulation is used to compute the evolution of temperature, humidity, cement hydration, and ASR in both space and time, which is then used within physics-based formulations of cracking, creep and shrinkage. The overall model is calibrated and validated on the basis of experimental data available in the literature. Results show that even during free expansions (zero macroscopic stress), a significant degree of coupling exists because ASR induced expansions are relaxed by meso-scale creep driven by self-equilibriated stresses at the meso-scale. This explains and highlights the importance of considering ASR and other time dependent aging and deterioration phenomena at an appropriate length scale in coupled modeling approaches. PMID:28772829

Improvement and Extension of Shape Evaluation Criteria in Multi-Scale Image Segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, M.; Honda, Y.; Kondo, A.

2016-06-01

From the last decade, the multi-scale image segmentation is getting a particular interest and practically being used for object-based image analysis. In this study, we have addressed the issues on multi-scale image segmentation, especially, in improving the performances for validity of merging and variety of derived region's shape. Firstly, we have introduced constraints on the application of spectral criterion which could suppress excessive merging between dissimilar regions. Secondly, we have extended the evaluation for smoothness criterion by modifying the definition on the extent of the object, which was brought for controlling the shape's diversity. Thirdly, we have developed new shape criterion called aspect ratio. This criterion helps to improve the reproducibility on the shape of object to be matched to the actual objectives of interest. This criterion provides constraint on the aspect ratio in the bounding box of object by keeping properties controlled with conventional shape criteria. These improvements and extensions lead to more accurate, flexible, and diverse segmentation results according to the shape characteristics of the target of interest. Furthermore, we also investigated a technique for quantitative and automatic parameterization in multi-scale image segmentation. This approach is achieved by comparing segmentation result with training area specified in advance by considering the maximization of the average area in derived objects or satisfying the evaluation index called F-measure. Thus, it has been possible to automate the parameterization that suited the objectives especially in the view point of shape's reproducibility.

Landsat and GRACE observations of arid wetland dynamics in a dryland river system under multi-decadal hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zunyi; Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Devadas, Rakhesh; Clarke, Kenneth; Lewis, Megan

2016-12-01

Arid wetlands are important for biodiversity conservation, but sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability and hydroclimatic events. Amplification of the water cycle, including the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and wet extremes, is expected to alter spatial and temporal hydrological patterns in arid wetlands globally, with potential threats to ecosystem services and their functioning. Despite these pressing challenges, the ecohydrological interactions and resilience of arid wetlands to highly variable water regimes over long time periods remain largely unknown. Recent broad-scale drought and floods over Australia provide unique opportunities to improve our understanding of arid wetland ecosystem responses to hydroclimatic extremes. Here we analysed the ecohydrological dynamics of the Coongie Lakes arid wetland in central Australia, one of the world's largest Ramsar-designated wetlands, using more than two decades (1988-2011) of vegetation and floodwater extent retrievals derived from Landsat satellite observations. To explore the impacts of large-scale hydrological fluctuations on the arid wetland, we further coupled Landsat measurements with Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Pronounced seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of flood and vegetation activities were observed over the wetland, with variations in vegetation growth extent highly correlated with flood extent (r = 0.64, p < 0.05) that ranged from nearly zero to 3456 km2. We reported the hydrological dynamics and associated ecosystem responses to be largely driven by the two phases (El Niño and La Niña) of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean-atmosphere system. Changes in flood and vegetation extent were better explained by GRACE-TWSA (r = 0.8, lag = 0 month) than rainfall (r = 0.34, lag = 3 months) over the water source area, demonstrating that TWS is a valuable hydrological indicator for complex dryland river systems. The protracted Millennium Drought from 2001 to 2009 resulted in long-term absence of major flood events, which substantially suppressed wetland vegetation growth. However, the 2010-11 La Niña induced flooding events led to an exceptionally large resurgence of vegetation, with a mean vegetation growth extent anomaly exceeding the historical average (1988-2011) by more than 1.5 standard deviations, suggesting a significant resilience of arid wetland ecosystems to climate variability. This study showed the ecological functioning of arid wetlands is particularly sensitive to large-scale hydrological fluctuations and extreme drought conditions, and vulnerable to future altered water regimes due to climate change. The methods developed herein can be applied to arid wetlands located in other dryland river systems across the globe.

Towards a Multi-scale Montecarlo Climate Emulator for Coastal Flooding and Long-Term Coastal Change Modeling: The Beautiful Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, A.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Hegermiller, C.; Serafin, K.; Anderson, D. L.; Ruggiero, P.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Vitousek, S.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.; Gonzalez, M.; Mendez, F. J.

2016-02-01

Long-term coastal evolution and coastal flooding hazards are the result of the non-linear interaction of multiple oceanographic, hydrological, geological and meteorological forcings (e.g., astronomical tide, monthly mean sea level, large-scale storm surge, dynamic wave set-up, shoreline evolution, backshore erosion). Additionally, interannual variability and trends in storminess and sea level rise are climate drivers that must be considered. Moreover, the chronology of the hydraulic boundary conditions plays an important role since a collection of consecutive minor storm events can have more impact than the 100-yr return level event. Therefore, proper modeling of shoreline erosion, beach recovery and coastal flooding should consider the sequence of storms, the multivariate nature of the hydrodynamic forcings, and the different time scales of interest (seasonality, interannual and decadal variability). To address this `beautiful problem', we propose a hybrid approach that combines: (a) numerical hydrodynamic and morphodynamic models (SWAN for wave transformation, a shoreline change model, X-Beach for modeling infragravity waves and erosion of the backshore during extreme events and RFSM-EDA (Jamieson et al, 2012) for high resolution flooding of the coastal hinterland); (b) long-term data bases (observational and hindcast) of sea state parameters, astronomical tides and non-tidal residuals; and (c) statistical downscaling techniques, non-linear data mining, and extreme value models. The statistical downscaling approaches for multivariate variables are based on circulation patterns (Espejo et al., 2014), the chronology of the circulation patterns (Guanche et al, 2013) and the event hydrographs of multivariate extremes, resulting in a time-dependent climate emulator of hydraulic boundary conditions for coupled simulations of the coastal change and flooding models. ReferencesEspejo et al (2014) Spectral ocean wave climate variability based on circulation patterns, J Phys Oc, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0276.1 Guanche et al (2013) Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns, Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1690-3 Jamieson et al (2012) A highly efficient 2D flood model with sub-element topography, Proc. Of the Inst Civil Eng., 165(10), 581-595

Interannual variability (1979-2013) of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water mass formation: past observation reanalysis and coupled ocean-atmosphere high-resolution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somot, Samuel; Houpert, Loic; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Dubois, Clotilde; Herrmann, Marine; Waldman, Robin; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Cassou, Christophe

2015-04-01

The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore observing, simulating and understanding the long-term temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water formation is still today a very challenging task. We try here to tackle those issues thanks to (1) a thorough reanalysis of past in-situ observations (CTD, Argo, surface and deep moorings, gliders) and (2) an ERA-Interim driven simulation using a recently-developed fully coupled Regional Climate System Model (CNRM-RCSM4, Sevault et al. 2014). The multi-decadal simulation (1979-2013) is designed to be temporally and spatially homogeneous with a realistic chronology, a high resolution representation of both the regional ocean and atmosphere, specific initial conditions, a long-term spin-up and a full ocean-atmosphere coupling without constraint at the air-sea interface. The observation reanalysis allows to reconstruct interannual time series of deep water formation indicators (ocean surface variables, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, dense water volumes and characteristics of the deep water). Using the observation-based indicators and the model outputs, the 34 Winters of the period 1979-2013 are analysed in terms of weather regimes, related Winter air-sea fluxes, ocean preconditioning, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, deep water formation rate and long-term evolution of the deep water hydrology.

Stellar Populations and Nearby Galaxies with the LSST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Abhijit; Olsen, K.; Monet, D. G.; LSST Stellar Populations Collaboration

2009-01-01

The LSST will produce a multi-color map and photometric object catalog of half the sky to r=27.6 (AB mag; 5-sigma). Time-space sampling of each field spanning ten years will allow variability, proper motion and parallax measurements for objects brighter than r=24.7. As part of providing an unprecedented map of the Galaxy, the accurate multi-band photometry will permit photometric parallaxes, chemical abundances and a handle on ages via colors at turn-off for main-sequence (MS) stars at all distances within the Galaxy as well as in the Magellanic Clouds, and dwarf satellites of the Milky Way. This will support comprehensive studies of star formation histories and chemical evolution for field stars. The structures of the Clouds and dwarf spheroidals will be traced with the MS stars, to equivalent surface densities fainter than 35 mag/square arc-second. With geometric parallax accuracy of 1 milli-arc-sec, comparable to HIPPARCOS but reaching more than 10 magnitudes fainter, a robust complete sample of solar neighborhood stars will be obtained. The LSST time sampling will identify and characterize variable stars of all types, from time scales of 1 hr to several years, a feast for variable star astrophysics. The combination of wide coverage, multi-band photometry, time sampling and parallax taken together will address several key problems: e.g. fine tuning the extragalactic distance scale by examining properties of RR Lyraes and Cepheids as a function of parent populations, extending the faint end of the galaxy luminosity function by discovering them using star count density enhancements on degree scales tracing, and indentifying inter-galactic stars through novae and Long Period Variables.

Unsupervised Change Detection for Geological and Ecological Monitoring via Remote Sensing: Application on a Volcanic Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falco, N.; Pedersen, G. B. M.; Vilmunandardóttir, O. K.; Belart, J. M. M. C.; Sigurmundsson, F. S.; Benediktsson, J. A.

2016-12-01

The project "Environmental Mapping and Monitoring of Iceland by Remote Sensing (EMMIRS)" aims at providing fast and reliable mapping and monitoring techniques on a big spatial scale with a high temporal resolution of the Icelandic landscape. Such mapping and monitoring will be crucial to both mitigate and understand the scale of processes and their often complex interlinked feedback mechanisms.In the EMMIRS project, the Hekla volcano area is one of the main sites under study, where the volcanic eruptions, extreme weather and human activities had an extensive impact on the landscape degradation. The development of innovative remote sensing approaches to compute earth observation variables as automatically as possible is one of the main tasks of the EMMIRS project. Furthermore, a temporal remote sensing archive is created and composed by images acquired by different sensors (Landsat, RapidEye, ASTER and SPOT5). Moreover, historical aerial stereo photos allowed decadal reconstruction of the landscape by reconstruction of digital elevation models. Here, we propose a novel architecture for automatic unsupervised change detection analysis able to ingest multi-source data in order to detect landscape changes in the Hekla area. The change detection analysis is based on multi-scale analysis, which allows the identification of changes at different level of abstraction, from pixel-level to region-level. For this purpose, operators defined in mathematical morphology framework are implemented to model the contextual information, represented by the neighbour system of a pixel, allowing the identification of changes related to both geometrical and spectral domains. Automatic radiometric normalization strategy is also implemented as pre-processing step, aiming at minimizing the effect of different acquisition conditions. The proposed architecture is tested on multi-temporal data sets acquired over different time periods coinciding with the last three eruptions (1980-1981, 1991, 2000) occurred on Hekla volcano. The results reveal emplacement of new lava flows and the initial vegetation succession, providing insightful information on the evolving of vegetation in such environment. Shadow and snow patch changes are resolved in post-processing by exploiting the available spectral information.

Relevance of multiple spatial scales in habitat models: A case study with amphibians and grasshoppers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altmoos, Michael; Henle, Klaus

2010-11-01

Habitat models for animal species are important tools in conservation planning. We assessed the need to consider several scales in a case study for three amphibian and two grasshopper species in the post-mining landscapes near Leipzig (Germany). The two species groups were selected because habitat analyses for grasshoppers are usually conducted on one scale only whereas amphibians are thought to depend on more than one spatial scale. First, we analysed how the preference to single habitat variables changed across nested scales. Most environmental variables were only significant for a habitat model on one or two scales, with the smallest scale being particularly important. On larger scales, other variables became significant, which cannot be recognized on lower scales. Similar preferences across scales occurred in only 13 out of 79 cases and in 3 out of 79 cases the preference and avoidance for the same variable were even reversed among scales. Second, we developed habitat models by using a logistic regression on every scale and for all combinations of scales and analysed how the quality of habitat models changed with the scales considered. To achieve a sufficient accuracy of the habitat models with a minimum number of variables, at least two scales were required for all species except for Bufo viridis, for which a single scale, the microscale, was sufficient. Only for the European tree frog ( Hyla arborea), at least three scales were required. The results indicate that the quality of habitat models increases with the number of surveyed variables and with the number of scales, but costs increase too. Searching for simplifications in multi-scaled habitat models, we suggest that 2 or 3 scales should be a suitable trade-off, when attempting to define a suitable microscale.

New Insights in Tropospheric Ozone and its Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Ziemke, Jerry R.; Rodriquez, Jose M.

2011-01-01

We have produced time-slice simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism. These simulations are forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years and use constant specified surface emissions, thereby providing a measure of the dynamically controlled ozone response. We examine the model performance in simulating tropospheric ozone and its variability. Here we show targeted comparisons results from our simulations with a multi-decadal tropical tropospheric column ozone dataset obtained from satellite observations of total column ozone. We use SHADOZ ozonesondes to gain insight into the observed vertical response and compare with the simulated vertical structure. This work includes but is not limited to ENSO related variability.

Satellite Imagery Analysis for Automated Global Food Security Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, D.; Brumby, S. P.; Chartrand, R.; Keisler, R.; Mathis, M.; Beneke, C. M.; Nicholaeff, D.; Skillman, S.; Warren, M. S.; Poehnelt, J.

2017-12-01

The recent computing performance revolution has driven improvements in sensor, communication, and storage technology. Multi-decadal remote sensing datasets at the petabyte scale are now available in commercial clouds, with new satellite constellations generating petabytes/year of daily high-resolution global coverage imagery. Cloud computing and storage, combined with recent advances in machine learning, are enabling understanding of the world at a scale and at a level of detail never before feasible. We present results from an ongoing effort to develop satellite imagery analysis tools that aggregate temporal, spatial, and spectral information and that can scale with the high-rate and dimensionality of imagery being collected. We focus on the problem of monitoring food crop productivity across the Middle East and North Africa, and show how an analysis-ready, multi-sensor data platform enables quick prototyping of satellite imagery analysis algorithms, from land use/land cover classification and natural resource mapping, to yearly and monthly vegetative health change trends at the structural field level.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Environmental hydro-refugia demonstrated by vegetation vigour in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

PubMed Central

Reynolds, S. C.; Marston, C. G.; Hassani, H.; King, G. C. P.; Bennett, M. R.

2016-01-01

Climate shifts at decadal scales can have environmental consequences, and therefore, identifying areas that act as environmental refugia is valuable in understanding future climate variability. Here we illustrate how, given appropriate geohydrology, a rift basin and its catchment can buffer vegetation response to climate signals on decadal time-scales, therefore exerting strong local environmental control. We use time-series data derived from Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) residuals that record vegetation vigour, extracted from a decadal span of MODIS images, to demonstrate hydrogeological buffering. While this has been described previously it has never been demonstrated via remote sensing and results in relative stability in vegetation vigour inside the delta, compared to that outside. As such the Delta acts as a regional hydro-refugium. This provides insight, not only to the potential impact of future climate in the region, but also demonstrates why similar basins are attractive to fauna, including our ancestors, in regions like eastern Africa. Although vertebrate evolution operates on time scales longer than decades, the sensitivity of rift wetlands to climate change has been stressed by some authors, and this work demonstrates another example of the unique properties that such basins can afford, given the right hydrological conditions. PMID:27775028

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-07-01

In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

Characterizing Temperature Variability and Associated Large Scale Meteorological Patterns Across South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detzer, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Mechoso, C. R.; Barkhordarian, A.; Lee, H.

2017-12-01

South America's climate varies considerably owing to its large geographic range and diverse topographical features. Spanning the tropics to the mid-latitudes and from high peaks to tropical rainforest, the continent experiences an array of climate and weather patterns. Due to this considerable spatial extent, assessing temperature variability at the continent scale is particularly challenging. It is well documented in the literature that temperatures have been increasing across portions of South America in recent decades, and while there have been many studies that have focused on precipitation variability and change, temperature has received less scientific attention. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the drivers of temperature variability is critical for interpreting future change. First, k-means cluster analysis is used to identify four primary modes of temperature variability across the continent, stratified by season. Next, composites of large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are calculated for months assigned to each cluster. Initial results suggest that LSMPs, defined using meteorological variables such as sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, and wind, are able to identify synoptic scale mechanisms important for driving temperature variability at the monthly scale. Some LSMPs indicate a relationship with known recurrent modes of climate variability. For example, composites of geopotential height suggest that the Southern Annular Mode is an important, but not necessarily dominant, component of temperature variability over southern South America. This work will be extended to assess the drivers of temperature extremes across South America.

Recent changes and drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; El Kenawy, Ahmed; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Peña-Gallardo, Marina; Beguería, Santiago; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel

2016-08-01

We analysed recent evolution and meteorological drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in the Canary Islands for the period 1961-2013. We employed long and high-quality time series of meteorological variables to analyse current AED changes in this region and found that AED has increased during the investigated period. Overall, the annual ETo, which was estimated by means of the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation, increased significantly by 18.2 mm decade-1 on average, with a stronger trend in summer (6.7 mm decade-1). In this study we analysed the contribution of (i) the aerodynamic (related to the water vapour that a parcel of air can store) and (ii) radiative (related to the available energy to evaporate a quantity of water) components to the decadal variability and trends of ETo. More than 90 % of the observed ETo variability at the seasonal and annual scales can be associated with the variability in the aerodynamic component. The variable that recorded more significant changes in the Canary Islands was relative humidity, and among the different meteorological factors used to calculate ETo, relative humidity was the main driver of the observed ETo trends. The observed trend could have negative consequences in a number of water-depending sectors if it continues in the future.

Multi-epoch intranight optical monitoring of eight radio-quiet BL Lac candidates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Gopal-Krishna; Stalin, C. S.; Chand, H.; Srianand, R.; Petitjean, P.

2017-10-01

For a new sample of eight weak-line quasars (WLQs) we report a sensitive search in 20 intranight monitoring sessions, for blazar-like optical flux variations on hour-like and longer time-scale (day/month/year-like). The sample consists exclusively of the WLQs that are not radio-loud and either have been classified as 'radio-weak probable BL Lac candidates' and/or are known to have exhibited at least one episode of large, blazar-like optical variability. Whereas only a hint of intranight variability is seen for two of these WLQs, J104833.5+620305.0 (z = 0.219) and J133219.6+622715.9 (z = 3.15), statistically significant internight variability at a few per cent level is detected for three of the sources, including the radio-intermediate WLQ J133219.6+622715.9 (z = 3.15) and the well-known bona fide radio-quiet WLQs J121221.5+534128.0 (z = 3.10) and WLQ J153259.9-003944.1 (z = 4.62). In the rest frame, this variability is intraday and in the far-ultraviolet band. On the time-scale of a decade, we find for three of the WLQs large brightness changes, amounting to 1.655 ± 0.009, 0.163 ± 0.010 and 0.144 ± 0.018 mag, for J104833.5+620305.0, J123743.1+630144.9 and J232428.4+144324.4, respectively. Whereas the latter two are confirmed radio-quiet WLQs, the extragalactic nature of J104833.5+620305.0 remains to be well established, thanks to the absence of any feature(s) in its available optical spectra. This study forms a part of our ongoing campaign of intranight optical monitoring of radio-quiet WLQs, in order to improve the understanding of this enigmatic class of active galactic nuclei and to look among them for a possible tiny, elusive population of radio-quiet BL Lacs.

Dry-wet variations and cause analysis in Northeast China at multi-time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qi; Pan, Feifei; Pan, Xuebiao; Hu, Liting; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Yang, Pengyu; Wei, Pei; Pan, Zhihua

2017-07-01

Global warming has caused unevenly distributed changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, which has and will certainly impact on the wet-dry variations. Based on daily meteorological data collected at 91 weather stations in Northeast China (NEC), the spatiotemporal characteristics of dry and wet climatic variables (precipitation, crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and humid index (HI)) are analyzed, and the probable reasons causing the changes in these variables are discussed during the period of 1961-2014. Precipitation showed non-significant trend over the period of 1961-2014, while ET0 showed a significant decreasing trend, which led to climate wetting in NEC. The period of 2001-2012 exhibited smaller semiarid area and larger humid area compared to the period of 1961-1980, indicating NEC has experienced wetting process at decadal scale. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity, and wind speed was the second most sensitive variable. Sunshine hours and temperature were found to be less influential to ET0 in the study area. The changes in wind speed in the recent 54 years have caused the greatest influence on ET0, followed by temperature. For each month, wind speed was the most significant variable causing ET0 reduction in all months except July. Temperature, as a dominant factor, made a positive contribution to ET0 in February and March, as well as sunshine hours in June and July, and relative humidity in August and September. In summary, NEC has experienced noticeable climate wetting due to the significantly decreasing ET0, and the decrease in wind speed was the biggest contributor for the ET0 reduction. Although agricultural drought crisis is expected to be partly alleviated, regional water resources management and planning in Northeast China should consider the potential water shortage and water conflict in the future because of spatiotemporal dry-wet variations in NEC.

Landscape structure, groundwater dynamics, and soil water content influence soil respiration across riparian-hillslope transitions in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, Montana

Treesearch

Vincent J. Pacific; Brian L. McGlynn; Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Daniel L. Welsch; Howard E. Epstein

2011-01-01

Variability in soil respiration at various spatial and temporal scales has been the focus of much research over the last decade aimed to improve our understanding and parameterization of physical and environmental controls on this flux. However, few studies have assessed the control of landscape position and groundwater table dynamics on the spatiotemporal variability...

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

South Pacific hydrologic and cyclone variability during the last 3000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, Michael R.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Tierney, Jessica E.

2016-04-01

Major excursions in the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and/or changes in its intensity are thought to drive tropical cyclone (TC) and precipitation variability across much of the central South Pacific. A lack of conventional sites typically used for multimillennial proxy reconstructions has limited efforts to extend observational rainfall/TC data sets and our ability to fully assess the risks posed to central Pacific islands by future changes in fresh water availability or the frequency of storm landfalls. Here we use the sedimentary record of Apu Bay, offshore the island of Tahaa, French Polynesia, to explore the relationship between SPCZ position/intensity and tropical cyclone overwash, resolved at decadal time scales, since 3200 years B.P. Changes in orbital precession and Pacific sea surface temperatures best explain evidence for a coordinated pattern of rainfall variability at Tahaa and across the Pacific over the late Holocene. Our companion record of tropical cyclone activity from Tahaa suggests major storm activity was higher between 2600-1500 years B.P., when decadal scale SPCZ variability may also have been stronger. A transition to lower storm frequency and a shift or expansion of the SPCZ toward French Polynesia around 1000 years B.P. may have prompted Polynesian migration into the central Pacific.

Advancing High Spatial and Spectral Resolution Remote Sensing for Observing Plant Community Response to Environmental Variability and Change in the Alaskan Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas Zesati, Sergio A.

The Arctic is being impacted by climate change more than any other region on Earth. Impacts to terrestrial ecosystems have the potential to manifest through feedbacks with other components of the Earth System. Of particular concern is the potential for the massive store of soil organic carbon to be released from arctic permafrost to the atmosphere where it could exacerbate greenhouse warming and impact global climate and biogeochemical cycles. Even though substantial gains to our understanding of the changing Arctic have been made, especially over the past decade, linking research results from plot to regional scales remains a challenge due to the lack of adequate low/mid-altitude sampling platforms, logistic constraints, and the lack of cross-scale validation of research methodologies. The prime motivation of this study is to advance observational capacities suitable for documenting multi-scale environmental change in arctic terrestrial landscapes through the development and testing of novel ground-based and low altitude remote sensing methods. Specifically this study addressed the following questions: • How well can low-cost kite aerial photography and advanced computer vision techniques model the microtopographic heterogeneity of changing tundra surfaces? • How does imagery from kite aerial photography and fixed time-lapse digital cameras (pheno-cams) compare in their capacity to monitor plot-level phenological dynamics of arctic vegetation communities? • Can the use of multi-scale digital imaging systems be scaled to improve measurements of ecosystem properties and processes at the landscape level? • How do results from ground-based and low altitude digital remote sensing of the spatiotemporal variability in ecosystem processes compare with those from satellite remote sensing platforms? Key findings from this study suggest that cost-effective alternative digital imaging and remote sensing methods are suitable for monitoring and quantifying plot to landscape level ecosystem structure and phenological dynamics at multiple temporal scales. Overall, this study has furthered our knowledge of how tundra ecosystems in the Arctic change seasonally and how such change could impact remote sensing studies conducted from multiple platforms and across multiple spatial scales. Additionally, this study also highlights the urgent need for research into the validation of satellite products in order to better understand the causes and consequences of the changing Arctic and its potential effects on global processes. This study focused on sites located in northern Alaska and was formed in collaboration with Florida International University (FIU) and Grand Valley State University (GVSU) as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network (AON). All efforts were supported through the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Cyber-ShARE Center of Excellence, and the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX).

Using decadal climate prediction to characterize and manage changing drought and flood risks in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazrus, H.; Done, J.; Morss, R. E.

2017-12-01

A new branch of climate science, known as decadal prediction, seeks to predict the time-varying trajectory of climate over the next 3-30 years and not just the longer-term trends. Decadal predictions bring climate information into the time horizon of decision makers, particularly those tasked with managing water resources and floods whose master planning is often on the timescale of decades. Information from decadal predictions may help alleviate some aspects of vulnerability by helping to inform decisions that reduce drought and flood exposure and increase adaptive capacities including preparedness, response, and recovery. This presentation will highlight an interdisciplinary project - involving atmospheric and social scientists - on the development of decadal climate information and its use in decision making. The presentation will explore the skill and utility of decadal drought and flood prediction along Colorado's Front Range, an area experiencing rapid population growth and uncertain climate variability and climate change impacts. Innovative statistical and dynamical atmospheric modeling techniques explore the extent to which Colorado precipitation can be predicted on decadal scales using remote Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns. Concurrently, stakeholder interviews with flood managers in Colorado are being used to explore the potential utility of decadal climate information. Combining the modeling results with results from the stakeholder interviews shows that while there is still significant uncertainty surrounding precipitation on decadal time scales, relevant and well communicated decadal information has potential to be useful for drought and flood management.

Multi-scale evaluation of the environmental controls on burn probability in a southern Sierra Nevada landscape

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller

2011-01-01

We examined the scale-dependent relationship between spatial fire likelihood or burn probability (BP) and some key environmental controls in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Continuous BP estimates were generated using a fire simulation model. The correspondence between BP (dependent variable) and elevation, ignition density, fuels and aspect was evaluated...

A multi-scale evaluation of pack stack effects on subalpine meadow plant communities in the Sierra Nevada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We evaluated the influence of pack stock (i.e., horse and mule) use on meadow plant communities in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Meadows were sampled to account for inherent variability across multiple scales by: 1) controlling for among-meadow var...

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

Lens-Aided Multi-Angle Spectroscopy (LAMAS) Reveals Small-Scale Outflow Structure in Quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Paul J.

2006-06-01

Spectral differences between lensed quasar image components are common. Since lensing is intrinsically achromatic, these differences are typically explained as the effect of either microlensing, or as light path time delays sampling intrinsic quasar spectral variability. Here we advance a novel third hypothesis: some spectral differences are due to small line-of-sight differences through quasar disk wind outflows. In particular, we propose that variable spectral differences seen only in component A of the widest separation lens SDSS J1004+4112 are due to differential absorption along the sight lines. The absorber properties required by this hypothesis are akin to known broad absorption line (BAL) outflows but must have a broader, smoother velocity profile. We interpret the observed C IV emission-line variability as further evidence for spatial fine structure transverse to the line of sight. Since outflows are likely to be rotating, such absorber fine structure can consistently explain some of the UV and X-ray variability seen in AGNs. The implications are many: (1) Spectroscopic differences in other lensed objects may be due to this ``lens-aided multi-angle spectroscopy'' (LAMAS). (2) Outflows have fine structure on size scales of arcseconds, as seen from the nucleus. (3) Assuming either broad absorption line region sizes proposed in recent wind models, or typically assumed continuum emission region sizes, LAMAS and/or variability provide broadly consistent absorber size scale estimates of ~1015 cm. (4) Very broad smooth absorption may be ubiquitous in quasar spectra, even when no obvious troughs are seen.

Intrinsic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes of the Asian Summer Monsoon: A Re-assessment of Monsoon-ENSO Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H. T.

2000-01-01

Using global rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) data for the past two decades (1979-1998), we have investigated the intrinsic modes of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and ENSO co-variability. Three recurring ASM rainfall-SST coupled modes were identified. The first is a basin scale mode that features SST and rainfall variability over the entire tropics (including the ASM region), identifiable with those occurring during El Nino or La Nina. This mode is further characterized by a pronounced biennial variation in ASM rainfall and SST associated with fluctuations of the anomalous Walker circulation that occur during El Nino/La Nina transitions. The second mode comprises mixed regional and basin-scale rainfall and SST signals, with pronounced intraseasonal and interannual variabilities. This mode features a SST pattern associated with a developing La Nina, with a pronounced low level anticyclone in the subtropics of the western Pacific off the coast of East Asia. The third mode depicts an east-west rainfall and SST dipole across the southern equatorial Indian Ocean, most likely stemming from coupled ocean-atmosphere processes within the ASM region. This mode also possesses a decadal time scale and a linear trend, which are not associated with El Nino/La Nina variability. Possible causes of year-to-year rainfall variability over the ASM and sub-regions have been evaluated from a reconstruction of the observed rainfall from singular eigenvectors of the coupled modes. It is found that while basin-scale SST can account for portions of ASM rainfall variability during ENSO events (up to 60% in 1998), regional processes can accounts up to 20-25% of the rainfall variability in typical non-ENSO years. Stronger monsoon-ENSO relationship tends to occur in the boreal summer immediately preceding a pronounced La Nina, i.e., 1998, 1988 and 1983. Based on these results, we discuss the possible impacts of the ASM on ENSO variability via the west Pacific anticyclone and articulate a hypothesis that anomalous wind forcings derived from the anticyclone may be instrumental in inducing a strong biennial modulation to natural ENSO cycles.

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-01-01

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Two Decades (almost) of Keck Observations of Io

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Pater, I.; Davies, A. G.; de Kleer, K.

2015-12-01

We have regularly observed Io with the 10-m Keck Telescope since 1998, initially using the speckle imaging technique, and switching to Adaptive Optics techniques when this became available in 2001. In this talk we will discuss several eruptions that we witnessed, and present 20-30 year timelines of thermal emission from Pele, Pillan, Janus Patera, Kanehekili Fluctus, and Loki Patera, updating timelines in recent publications [1, 2] with additional Keck adaptive optics data obtained between 2002 and 2015. These new timelines are the most comprehensive plots ever produced of the volcanic thermal emission variability for these or any other locations on Io, utilizing data from multiple ground- and space-based assets. Our continuing multi-decadal observing program forms the basis for charting the variability of Io's volcanic activity, of great importance for understanding the evolution of the Galilean satellite system, and with the expectation of new missions to the jovian system in the next decade. Acknowledgements: This research is in part supported by NSF grant AST-1313485 to UC Berkeley. AGD is supported by a grant from the NASA OPR Program. References: [1] Davies et al. (2012) Icarus, 221, 466-470. [2] Rathbun and Spencer (2010) Icarus, 209, 625-630.

The Drivers of the CH4 Seasonal Cycle in the Arctic and What Long-Term Observations of CH4 Imply About Trends in Arctic CH4 Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, C.; Karion, A.; Bruhwiler, L.; Miller, J. B.; Wofsy, S. C.; Miller, C. E.; Chang, R. Y.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Daube, B.; Pittman, J. V.; Dinardo, S. J.

2012-12-01

The large seasonal change in the atmospheric column for CH4 in the Arctic is driven by two dominant processes: transport of CH4 from low latitudes and surface emissions throughout the Arctic region. The NOAA ESRL Carbon Cycle Group Aircraft Program along with the NASA funded Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) have initiated an effort to better understand the factors controlling the seasonal changes in the mole fraction of CH4 in the Arctic with a multi-scale aircraft observing network in Alaska. The backbone of this network is multi-species flask sampling from 500 to 8000 masl that has been conducted every two weeks for the last 10 years over Poker Flat, AK. In addition regular profiles at the interior Alaska site at Poker Flat, NOAA has teamed up with the United States Coast Guard to make profiling flights with continuous observations of CO2, CO, CH4 and Ozone between Kodiak and Barrow every 2 weeks. More recently, CARVE has significantly added to this observational network with targeted flights focused on exploring the variability of CO2, CH4 and CO in the boundary layer both in the interior and the North Slope regions of Alaska. Taken together with the profiling of HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO), ground sites at Barrow and a new CARVE interior Alaska surface site just north of Fairbanks, AK, we now have the ability to investigate the full evolution of the seasonal cycle in the Arctic using both the multi-scale sampling offered by the different aircraft platforms as well as the multi-species sampling offered by in-situ and flask sampling. The flasks also provide a valuable tie-point between different platforms so that spatial and temporal gradients can be properly interpreted. In the context of the seasonal cycle observed by the aircraft platforms we will look at long term ground observations over the last 20 years to assess changes in Arctic CH4 emissions which have occurred as a result of 0.6C/decade changes in mean surface temperatures.

Putting ''place'' a multiscale context: perspectices from the sustainability sciences

DOE PAGES

Wilbanks, Thomas J.

2015-05-04

This paper summarizes a number of perspectives that have emerged from the sustainability sciences in recent decades (NRC, 1999; Kates et al., 2001; NRC, 2006; Kates, 2010) that shed light on the role of place in multi-scale sustainability science and vice-versa, ranging from the importance of the co-production of knowledge for sustainable development to threats to a ''sense of place'' from global environmental and economic changes.

Mass timber rocking panel retrofit of a four-story soft-story building with full-scale shake table validation

Treesearch

Pouria Bahmani; John van de Lindt; Asif Iqbal; Douglas Rammer

2017-01-01

Soft-story wood-frame buildings have been recognized as a disaster preparedness problem for decades. There are tens of thousands of these multi-family three- and four-story structures throughout California and the United States. The majority were constructed between 1920 and 1970, with many being prevalent in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. The NEES Soft...