Merino, Gabriel Guillermo
The design of grid-connected photovoltaic wind generator system supplying a farmstead in Nebraska has been undertaken in this dissertation. The design process took into account competing criteria that motivate the use of different sources of energy for electric generation. The criteria considered were 'Financial', 'Environmental', and 'User/System compatibility'. A distance based multi-objective decision making methodology was developed to rank design alternatives. The method is based upon a precedence order imposed upon the design objectives and a distance metric describing the performance of each alternative. This methodology advances previous work by combining ambiguous information about the alternatives with a decision-maker imposed precedence order in the objectives. Design alternatives, defined by the photovoltaic array and wind generator installed capacities, were analyzed using the multi-objective decision making approach. The performance of the design alternatives was determined by simulating the system using hourly data for an electric load for a farmstead and hourly averages of solar irradiation, temperature and wind speed from eight wind-solar energy monitoring sites in Nebraska. The spatial variability of the solar energy resource within the region was assessed by determining semivariogram models to krige hourly and daily solar radiation data. No significant difference was found in the predicted performance of the system when using kriged solar radiation data, with the models generated vs. using actual data. The spatial variability of the combined wind and solar energy resources was included in the design analysis by using fuzzy numbers and arithmetic. The best alternative was dependent upon the precedence order assumed for the main criteria. Alternatives with no PV array or wind generator dominated when the 'Financial' criteria preceded the others. In contrast, alternatives with a nil component of PV array but a high wind generator component
Hardy, Terry L.
Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.
Hardy, Terry L.
Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.
Zhu, Yue-he; Luo, Ya-zhong
Space station logistics strategy optimisation is a complex engineering problem with multiple objectives. Finding a decision-maker-preferred compromise solution becomes more significant when solving such a problem. However, the designer-preferred solution is not easy to determine using the traditional method. Thus, a hybrid approach that combines the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, physical programming, and differential evolution (DE) algorithm is proposed to deal with the optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to acquire a Pareto frontier and help determine the range parameters of the physical programming. Physical programming is employed to convert the four-objective problem into a single-objective problem, and a DE algorithm is applied to solve the resulting physical programming-based optimisation problem. Five kinds of objective preference are simulated and compared. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can produce good compromise solutions corresponding to different decision-makers' preferences.
Hardy, Terry L.
Selecting the best option among alternatives is often a difficult process. This process becomes even more difficult when the evaluation criteria are vague or qualitative, and when the objectives vary in importance and scope. Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.
Aytaç Adalı, Esra; Tuş Işık, Ayşegül
A decision making process requires the values of conflicting objectives for alternatives and the selection of the best alternative according to the needs of decision makers. Multi-objective optimization methods may provide solution for this selection. In this paper it is aimed to present the laptop selection problem based on MOORA plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) and multi-objective optimization on the basis of simple ratio analysis (MOOSRA) which are relatively new multi-objective optimization methods. The novelty of this paper is solving this problem with the MULTIMOORA and MOOSRA methods for the first time.
Qu, Wentao; Wang, Yajuan; Kang, Xianzhi; Xi, Xiaopeng; Zou, Wei
Influencing factors in cluster well pumping unit wire rope was analyzed corresponding index system. According to its characteristics, combined with fuzzy set theory, a multi-objective decision-making model of luster well pumping unit wire rope was set up, and the example of application was given to verify its feasibility.
Dong, Feifei; Liu, Yong; Su, Han; Zou, Rui; Guo, Huaicheng
Water quality management and load reduction are subject to inherent uncertainties in watershed systems and competing decision objectives. Therefore, optimal decision-making modeling in watershed load reduction is suffering due to the following challenges: (a) it is difficult to obtain absolutely "optimal" solutions, and (b) decision schemes may be vulnerable to failure. The probability that solutions are feasible under uncertainties is defined as reliability. A reliability-oriented multi-objective (ROMO) decision-making approach was proposed in this study for optimal decision making with stochastic parameters and multiple decision reliability objectives. Lake Dianchi, one of the three most eutrophic lakes in China, was examined as a case study for optimal watershed nutrient load reduction to restore lake water quality. This study aimed to maximize reliability levels from considerations of cost and load reductions. The Pareto solutions of the ROMO optimization model were generated with the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, demonstrating schemes representing different biases towards reliability. The Pareto fronts of six maximum allowable emission (MAE) scenarios were obtained, which indicated that decisions may be unreliable under unpractical load reduction requirements. A decision scheme identification process was conducted using the back propagation neural network (BPNN) method to provide a shortcut for identifying schemes at specific reliability levels for decision makers. The model results indicated that the ROMO approach can offer decision makers great insights into reliability tradeoffs and can thus help them to avoid ineffective decisions.
Riegels, Niels; Jessen, Oluf; Madsen, Henrik
A multi-objective robust decision making approach is demonstrated that supports seasonal water management in the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The approach uses multi-objective optimization to identify a Pareto-optimal set of management alternatives. Ensemble simulation is used to evaluate how each member of the Pareto set performs under a range of uncertain future conditions, and a robustness criterion is used to select a preferred alternative. Data mining tools are then used to identify ranges of uncertain factor values that lead to unacceptable performance for the preferred alternative. The approach is compared to a multi-criteria scenario analysis approach to estimate whether the introduction of additional complexity has the potential to improve decision making. Dry season irrigation in Thailand is managed through non-binding recommendations about the maximum extent of rice cultivation along with incentives for less water-intensive crops. Management authorities lack authority to prevent river withdrawals for irrigation when rice cultivation exceeds recommendations. In practice, this means that water must be provided to irrigate the actual planted area because of downstream municipal water supply requirements and water quality constraints. This results in dry season reservoir withdrawals that exceed planned withdrawals, reducing carryover storage to hedge against insufficient wet season runoff. The dry season planning problem in Thailand can therefore be framed in terms of decisions, objectives, constraints, and uncertainties. Decisions include recommendations about the maximum extent of rice cultivation and incentives for growing less water-intensive crops. Objectives are to maximize benefits to farmers, minimize the risk of inadequate carryover storage, and minimize incentives. Constraints include downstream municipal demands and water quality requirements. Uncertainties include the actual extent of rice cultivation, dry season precipitation, and
Bastian, Nathaniel D; Ekin, Tahir; Kang, Hyojung; Griffin, Paul M; Fulton, Lawrence V; Grannan, Benjamin C
The management of hospitals within fixed-input health systems such as the U.S. Military Health System (MHS) can be challenging due to the large number of hospitals, as well as the uncertainty in input resources and achievable outputs. This paper introduces a stochastic multi-objective auto-optimization model (SMAOM) for resource allocation decision-making in fixed-input health systems. The model can automatically identify where to re-allocate system input resources at the hospital level in order to optimize overall system performance, while considering uncertainty in the model parameters. The model is applied to 128 hospitals in the three services (Air Force, Army, and Navy) in the MHS using hospital-level data from 2009 - 2013. The results are compared to the traditional input-oriented variable returns-to-scale Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The application of SMAOM to the MHS increases the expected system-wide technical efficiency by 18 % over the DEA model while also accounting for uncertainty of health system inputs and outputs. The developed method is useful for decision-makers in the Defense Health Agency (DHA), who have a strategic level objective of integrating clinical and business processes through better sharing of resources across the MHS and through system-wide standardization across the services. It is also less sensitive to data outliers or sampling errors than traditional DEA methods.
Yu, Sen; He, Li; Lu, Hongwei
Worldwide, many rivers experience water deficiency to such an extent that artificial water recharge is the only option for their ecological restoration. In this contribution, a framework was proposed for scenario-based, integrated decision-making, and evaluation of spatial and temporal multi-objectives for the ecological restoration of water-deficient rivers. Firstly, water-deficient rivers are divided into different regions using a GIS tool according to their spatial distribution characteristics. Secondly, decision objectives and variables are chosen, and scenarios are established for different regions over both spatial and temporal scales. Thirdly, the improved principal component projection (IPCP) method is applied to evaluate the different scenarios. Finally, coupled with the output data, scenarios for whole rivers are then optimally combined. Accordingly, decision-makers can then choose satisfactory scenarios as decision schemes. The framework is then tested through a case study in support of decision-making for the ecological restoration of the Yongding River using artificially recharged and recycled water. The case study demonstrates that the proposed framework was practical and effective for Yongding river ecological restoration with artificial recharge. It is also capable of identifying optimal restoration scenarios from a range of scenarios generated by the newly developed decision-support system.
Lizotte, Daniel J.; Laber, Eric B.
We present new methodology based on Multi-Objective Markov Decision Processes for developing sequential decision support systems from data. Our approach uses sequential decision-making data to provide support that is useful to many different decision-makers, each with different, potentially time-varying preference. To accomplish this, we develop an extension of fitted-Q iteration for multiple objectives that computes policies for all scalarization functions, i.e. preference functions, simultaneously from continuous-state, finite-horizon data. We identify and address several conceptual and computational challenges along the way, and we introduce a new solution concept that is appropriate when different actions have similar expected outcomes. Finally, we demonstrate an application of our method using data from the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness and show that our approach offers decision-makers increased choice by a larger class of optimal policies. PMID:28018133
A GIS-based Adaptive Management Decision Support System to Develop a Multi-Objective Framework: A case study utilizing GIS technologies and physically-based models to archieve improved decision making for site management.
Coleman, Andre M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Lane, Leonard J.; Tagestad, Jerry D.; Roberts, Damon
The notion of Adaptive Management (AM) allows for the realization and adjustment of management practices in response to elements of uncertainty. In terms of natural resource management, this will typically integrate monitoring, databases, simulation modeling, decision theory, and expert judgment to evaluate management alternatives and adapt them as necessary to continually improve the natural resource condition as defined by the stakeholders. Natural resource management scenarios can often be expressed, viewed, and understood as a spatial and temporal problem. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies and physically-based models provide an effective state-of-the-art solution for deriving, understanding, and applying AM scenarios for land use and remediation. A recently developed GIS-based adaptive management decision support system is presented for the U.S. Department of Defense Yakima Training Center near Yakima, Washington.
Chambers, David W
A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.
Basdekas, L.; Stewart, N.; Triana, E.
Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) is currently engaged in an Integrated Water Resource Plan (IWRP) to address the complex planning scenarios, across multiple time scales, currently faced by CSU. The modeling framework developed for the IWRP uses a flexible data-centered Decision Support System (DSS) with a MODSIM-based modeling system to represent the operation of the current CSU raw water system coupled with a state-of-the-art multi-objective optimization algorithm. Three basic components are required for the framework, which can be implemented for planning horizons ranging from seasonal to interdecadal. First, a water resources system model is required that is capable of reasonable system simulation to resolve performance metrics at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales of interest. The system model should be an existing simulation model, or one developed during the planning process with stakeholders, so that 'buy-in' has already been achieved. Second, a hydrologic scenario tool(s) capable of generating a range of plausible inflows for the planning period of interest is required. This may include paleo informed or climate change informed sequences. Third, a multi-objective optimization model that can be wrapped around the system simulation model is required. The new generation of multi-objective optimization models do not require parameterization which greatly reduces problem complexity. Bridging the gap between research and practice will be evident as we use a case study from CSU's planning process to demonstrate this framework with specific competing water management objectives. Careful formulation of objective functions, choice of decision variables, and system constraints will be discussed. Rather than treating results as theoretically Pareto optimal in a planning process, we use the powerful multi-objective optimization models as tools to more efficiently and effectively move out of the inferior decision space. The use of this framework will help CSU
Pasam, Gopi Krishna; Manohar, T. Gowri
Determination of available transfer capability (ATC) requires the use of experience, intuition and exact judgment in order to meet several significant aspects in the deregulated environment. Based on these points, this paper proposes two heuristic approaches to compute ATC. The first proposed heuristic algorithm integrates the five methods known as continuation repeated power flow, repeated optimal power flow, radial basis function neural network, back propagation neural network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to obtain ATC. The second proposed heuristic model is used to obtain multiple ATC values. Out of these, a specific ATC value will be selected based on a number of social, economic, deregulated environmental constraints and related to specific applications like optimization, on-line monitoring, and ATC forecasting known as multi-objective decision based optimal ATC. The validity of results obtained through these proposed methods are scrupulously verified on various buses of the IEEE 24-bus reliable test system. The results presented and derived conclusions in this paper are very useful for planning, operation, maintaining of reliable power in any power system and its monitoring in an on-line environment of deregulated power system. In this way, the proposed heuristic methods would contribute the best possible approach to assess multiple objective ATC using integrated methods.
Xia, Hu; Zhuang, Jian; Yu, Dehong
Many multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) have been successful in approximating the Pareto Front. However, well-distributed solutions in the objective and decision spaces are still required in many real-life applications. In this paper, a novel MOEA is proposed to this problem. Distinct from other MOEAs, the proposed algorithm suggests a framework, which includes two crowding estimation methods, multiple selection methods for mating and search strategies for variation, to improve the MOEA' s searching ability, and the diversity of its solutions. The algorithm emphasizes the importance of using the decision space and the objective space diversities. The objective space crowding and decision space crowding distances are designed using different ideas. To produce new individuals, three different types of mating selections and their respective search strategies are constructed for the main population and the two sparse populations, with the help of the two crowding measurements. Finally, based on the experimental tests on 17 unconstrained multi-objective optimization problems, the proposed algorithm is demonstrated to have better results compared to several state-of-the-art MOEAs. A detailed analysis on the effectiveness and robustness of the framework is also presented.
Ward, V. L.; Singh, R.; Reed, P. M.; Keller, K.
As water resources problems typically involve several stakeholders with conflicting objectives, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are now key tools for understanding management tradeoffs. Given the growing complexity of water planning problems, it is important to establish if an algorithm can consistently perform well on a given class of problems. This knowledge allows the decision analyst to focus on eliciting and evaluating appropriate problem formulations. This study proposes a multi-objective adaptation of the classic environmental economics "Lake Problem" as a computationally simple but mathematically challenging MOEA benchmarking problem. The lake problem abstracts a fictional town on a lake which hopes to maximize its economic benefit without degrading the lake's water quality to a eutrophic (polluted) state through excessive phosphorus loading. The problem poses the challenge of maintaining economic activity while confronting the uncertainty of potentially crossing a nonlinear and potentially irreversible pollution threshold beyond which the lake is eutrophic. Objectives for optimization are maximizing economic benefit from lake pollution, maximizing water quality, maximizing the reliability of remaining below the environmental threshold, and minimizing the probability that the town will have to drastically change pollution policies in any given year. The multi-objective formulation incorporates uncertainty with a stochastic phosphorus inflow abstracting non-point source pollution. We performed comprehensive diagnostics using 6 algorithms: Borg, MOEAD, eMOEA, eNSGAII, GDE3, and NSGAII to ascertain their controllability, reliability, efficiency, and effectiveness. The lake problem abstracts elements of many current water resources and climate related management applications where there is the potential for crossing irreversible, nonlinear thresholds. We show that many modern MOEAs can fail on this test problem, indicating its suitability as a
With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...
Lindelow, John; And Others
Chapter 6 in a volume on school leadership, this chapter makes a case for the use of participative decision-making (PDM) at the school-site level, outlines guidelines for its implementation, and describes the experiences of some schools with PDM systems. It begins by citing research indicating the advantages of PDM, including better decisions,…
Mehallis, Mantha, Ed.
This collection of essays focuses on the importance of accurate and timely information for effective decision making. First, Ivan Lach considers the proliferation of statewide planning and policy formation and discusses problems with and ways to improve statewide research. Next, Cheryl Opacinch focuses on decision making for federal postsecondary…
Davenport, Thomas H
Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups.
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication
Jonassen, David H.
Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…
Discusses how a positive partnership with the architect can help one who is inexperienced in building design and construction make smart building decisions. Tips address how to prevent change orders, what red flags to look for in a building project, what the administrator should expect from the architect to make the project run smoothly, and what…
Metternicht, Graciela; Blanco, Paula; del Valle, Hector; Laterra, Pedro; Hardtke, Leonardo; Bouza, Pablo
Wildlife is part of the Patagonian rangelands sheep farming environment, with the potential of providing extra revenue to livestock owners. As sheep farming became less profitable, farmers and ranchers could focus on sustainable wildlife harvesting. It has been argued that sustainable wildlife harvesting is ecologically one of the most rational forms of land use because of its potential to provide multiple products of high value, while reducing pressure on ecosystems. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is the most conspicuous wild ungulate of Patagonia. Guanaco ?bre, meat, pelts and hides are economically valuable and have the potential to be used within the present Patagonian context of production systems. Guanaco populations in South America, including Patagonia, have experienced a sustained decline. Causes for this decline are related to habitat alteration, competition for forage with sheep, and lack of reasonable management plans to develop livelihoods for ranchers. In this study we propose an approach to explicitly determinate optimal stocking rates based on trade-offs between guanaco density and livestock grazing intensity on rangelands. The focus of our research is on finding optimal sheep stocking rates at paddock level, to ensure the highest production outputs while: a) meeting requirements of sustainable conservation of guanacos over their minimum viable population; b) maximizing soil carbon sequestration, and c) minimizing soil erosion. In this way, determination of optimal stocking rate in rangelands becomes a multi-objective optimization problem that can be addressed using a Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) approach. Basically, this approach converts multi-objective problems into single-objective optimizations, by introducing a set of objective weights. Objectives are represented using fuzzy set theory and fuzzy memberships, enabling each objective function to adopt a value between 0 and 1. Each objective function indicates the satisfaction of
Eight psychometric instruments were administered to 10 elite male Portuguese orienteers. The cognitive process involved in decision making did not differ between the best orienteers and the others. This group of athletes had a high capacity for work realization and a strong need to be in control of interpersonal situations. (Author/SV)
Warner, Linda Sue
In contrast to European cultures, many American Indian societies have been matriarchal. Indian women have had a great deal of power, both as individuals and as groups, and have held various leadership roles within their tribes. Traditionally, Indian women have worked in partnership with men, and decision-making has been related to consensus…
In shared decision making (SDM), principals collaborate with teachers and sometimes parents to take actions aimed at improving instruction and school climate. While research on SDM outcomes is still inconclusive, the literature shows that SDM brings both benefits and problems, and that the principal is a key figure. This brief offers a sampling of…
Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P
The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.
of a DDM Testbed 69 4.3.2 Design of Experiments on Distributed 71 Mission Planning 5. AUTOMATED DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES 76 5.1 SEQUENTIAL...missile assignment scenario. A sequential assignment algorithm has been fully computer implemented and preliminary experiments with it have been run. An...implementation of a distributed version in which several humans can participate in experiments simultaneously. The distributed version will allow L1 us to
Alongi, M.; Howard, C.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Ryan, J. N.
Unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) using hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has recently fostered an unprecedented acceleration in energy development. Regulations seek to protect environmental quality of areas surrounding UOGD, while maintaining economic benefits. One such regulation is a setback distance, which dictates the minimum proximity between an oil and gas well and an object such as a residential or commercial building, property line, or water source. In general, most setback regulations have been strongly politically motivated without a clear scientific basis for understanding the relationship between the setback distance and various performance outcomes. This presentation discusses a new decision support framework for setback regulations, as part of a large NSF-funded sustainability research network (SRN) on UOGD. The goal of the decision support framework is to integrate a wide array of scientific information from the SRN into a coherent framework that can help inform policy regarding UOGD. The decision support framework employs multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) optimization coupled with simulation models of air quality and other performance-based outcomes on UOGD. The result of the MOEA optimization runs are quantitative tradeoff curves among different objectives. For example, one such curve could demonstrate air pollution concentrations versus estimates of energy development profits, for different levels of setback distance. Our results will also inform policy-relevant discussions surrounding UOGD such as comparing single- and multi-well pads, as well as regulations on the density of well development over a spatial area.
... medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002138.htm Sterilization surgery - making a decision To use the sharing features on this page, ... about all the options available to you before making the decision to have a sterilization procedure. Alternative Names Deciding ...
Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.
Czaczkes, Tomer J.; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen
Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155
Feldman, M. S.; Sarbaugh-Thompson, M.
Electronic communication can either facilitate or sabotage decision-making contexts. This article formulates recommendations about when and how to use electronic communication to enhance decision making and describes various decision contexts. Solutions to communication problems such as groupthink, social deadlock, bureaucratic isolation from…
Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N
Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients.
Waldrop, Deborah P.; Meeker, Mary Ann
Purpose: This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. Methods: This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36…
Mankins, Michael C; Steele, Richard
Many executives have grown skeptical of strategic planning. Is it any wonder? Despite all the time and energy that go into it, strategic planning most often acts as a barrier to good decision making and does little to influence strategy. Strategic planning fails because of two factors: It typically occurs annually, and it focuses on individual business units. As such, the process is completely at odds with the way executives actually make important strategy decisions, which are neither constrained by the calendar nor defined by unit boundaries. Thus, according to a survey of 156 large companies, senior executives often make strategic decisions outside the planning process, in an ad hoc fashion and without rigorous analysis or productive debate. But companies can fix the process if they attack its root problems. A few forward-looking firms have thrown out their calendar-driven, business-unit-focused planning procedures and replaced them with continuous, issues-focused decision making. In doing so, they rely on several basic principles: They separate, but integrate, decision making and plan making. They focus on a few key themes. And they structure strategy reviews to produce real decisions. When companies change the timing and focus of strategic planning, they also change the nature of senior management's discussions about strategy--from "review and approve" to "debate and decide," in which top executives actively think through every major decision and its implications for the company's performance and value. The authors have found that these companies make more than twice as many important strategic decisions per year as companies that follow the traditional planning model.
Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq
The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.
Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.
Pearson, John M; Watson, Karli K; Platt, Michael L
Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision making in health and disease.
Pearson, John M.; Watson, Karli K.; Platt, Michael L.
Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision-making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision-making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision-making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision-making in health and disease. PMID:24908481
Murdach, A D
Social workers increasingly are being required to assist clients in emergency situations. Such conditions typically require rapid decision making and quick action. In this article, the processes practitioners use in their interventions in psychiatric emergencies are examined. This examination is based on concepts derived from cognitive psychology and decision-making theory. Implications for practice and training also are discussed.
decision- making. 14. SUBJECT TERMS optimal decision-making, regret, Iowa gambling task, exponentially weighted moving average, change point...Iowa Gambling Task ......................................................... 3 2. Convoy Task...81 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. The Iowa Gambling Task screenshot (from Sacchi, 2014
Duryea, Elias J.
A position statement is offered that clarifies the function, role, and emphasis of decision making within the field of health education, and a rationale that proposes that health decision-making efforts be limited to areas where evidence links a health behavior (i.e., smoking) to a health problem (i.e., lung cancer) is presented. (Author/CJ)
Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)
Thompson, Bertha Boya
Suggests a decision-making model that can be applied by high school students to a variety of environmental problems, and illustrates how the model can be used to make decisions concerning future energy shortages. Provides criteria for judging allocation priorities of limited resources and stimulates awareness of alternative solutions to energy…
Paddock, Susan C.; Sferra, Bobbie A.
This handbook for parents defines and describes the process of citizen participation in educational decision making. After describing the history of citizen involvement, the booklet answers questions regarding why and how community members can become involved in policy formation. Problems in participatory decision making and strategies for…
decision maker’s beliefs must be known to him- self (De Finetti 1974). However, objective probabilities (i.e., frequencies) - those known from observations...CA: Duxbury Press, 664. De Finetti , B. 1974. Theory of probability. New York: Wiley. Dempster, A.P. 1968. A generalization of Bayesian inference
A number of different types of health decisions and choices can be distinguished from a wide range: individual decisions, health policy decisions, health action decisions, regulatory decisions regarding the health system, micro-level health decisions and decisions made outside of the health sector. With regard to health-related matters, decision-making is characterised by the level of uncertainty, the complexity of the health system and its structure, the role of urgency and the obligation to act; however, there is a significant emotional factor in these decisions and the supremacy of the individual in the decision-making process. On the policy side, health-related decision-making poses questions concerning the role of expertise and necessitates the development of public debate. The issue of a better balance between the quest for security and safety and respect for civil liberties and rights should be more and more acute in the future. As for the matter of health financing, namely through social security and insurance, it calls for a re-examination of the economic analysis of health decisions and policy and the development of a more coherent position on the right to health versus the right to universal coverage.
Insabato, Andrea; Pannunzi, Mario; Rolls, Edmund T; Deco, Gustavo
Neurons have been recorded that reflect in their firing rates the confidence in a decision. Here we show how this could arise as an emergent property in an integrate-and-fire attractor network model of decision making. The attractor network has populations of neurons that respond to each of the possible choices, each biased by the evidence for that choice, and there is competition between the attractor states until one population wins the competition and finishes with high firing that represents the decision. Noise resulting from the random spiking times of individual neurons makes the decision making probabilistic. We also show that a second attractor network can make decisions based on the confidence in the first decision. This system is supported by and accounts for neuronal responses recorded during decision making and makes predictions about the neuronal activity that will be found when a decision is made about whether to stay with a first decision or to abort the trial and start again. The research shows how monitoring can be performed in the brain and this has many implications for understanding cognitive functioning.
Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)
The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that
theory ana- sessment and initial planning , so as to lytical perspectives and appreciate the fact strengthen the option to be implement., that there are a...OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION Klein Associates, Inc. (If applicable) U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Social Sciences 6c. ADDRESS...on training and decision-aid development. T IS ’" IME to admit that the theories and sis, a technique for evaluating an option as in ideals of
Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R.; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel
Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala’s role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize “somatic marker” type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an “impulsive,” habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. PMID:20920513
Hoyle, Julie E.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.
DECIDE is a teacher-friendly, integrated approach designed to stimulate learning by allowing students to make decisions about situations they face in their lives while using scientific weather principles. This learning unit integrates weather science, decision theory, mathematics, statistics, geography, and reading in a context of decision…
Deco, Gustavo; Rolls, Edmund T.; Romo, Ranulfo
During decision making between sequential stimuli, the first stimulus must be held in memory and then compared with the second. Here, we show that in systems that encode the stimuli by their firing rate, neurons can use synaptic facilitation not only to remember the first stimulus during the delay but during the presentation of the second stimulus so that they respond to a combination of the first and second stimuli, as has been found for “partial differential” neurons recorded in the ventral premotor cortex during vibrotactile flutter frequency decision making. Moreover, we show that such partial differential neurons provide important input to a subsequent attractor decision-making network that can then compare this combination of the first and second stimuli with inputs from other neurons that respond only to the second stimulus. Thus, both synaptic facilitation and neuronal attractor dynamics can account for sequential decision making in such systems in the brain. PMID:20360555
Carpenter, Stephanie M.; Yoon, Carolyn
Research on consumer decision making and aging is especially important for fostering a better understanding of ways to maintain consumer satisfaction and high decision quality across the life span. We provide a review of extant research on the effects of normal aging on cognition and decision processes and how these age-related processes are influenced by task environment, meaningfulness of the task, and consumer expertise. We consider how research centered on these topics generates insights about changes in consumption decisions that occur with aging and identify a number of gaps and directions for future research. PMID:22360794
Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)
This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.
Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III
Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.
Calculations aimed at representing the thought process of decision makers are common within multi-objective decision support tools. These calculations that mathematically describe preferences most often combine various utility scores (i.e., abilities to satisfy desires) with weig...
Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali
Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751
Souther, J. W.
The need to teach informational writing as a decision-making process is discussed. Situational analysis, its relationship to decisions in writing, and the need for relevant assignments are considered. Teaching students to ask the right questions is covered. The need to teach writing responsiveness is described. Three steps to get started and four teaching techniques are described. The information needs of the 'expert' and the 'manager' are contrasted.
Flight crews must make decisions and take action when systems fail or emergencies arise during flight. These situations may involve high stress. Full-missiion flight simulation studies have shown that crews differ in how effectively they cope in these circumstances, judged by operational errors and crew coordination. The present study analyzed the problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains fitting three different personality profiles. Our goal was to identify more and less effective strategies that could serve as the basis for crew selection or training. Methods: Twelve 3-member B-727 crews flew a 5-leg mission simulated flight over 1 1/2 days. Two legs included 4 abnormal events that required decisions during high workload periods. Transcripts of videotapes were analyzed to describe decision making strategies. Crew performance (errors and coordination) was judged on-line and from videotapes by check airmen. Results: Based on a median split of crew performance errors, analyses to date indicate a difference in general strategy between crews who make more or less errors. Higher performance crews showed greater situational awareness - they responded quickly to cues and interpreted them appropriately. They requested more decision relevant information and took into account more constraints. Lower performing crews showed poorer situational awareness, planning, constraint sensitivity, and coordination. The major difference between higher and lower performing crews was that poorer crews made quick decisions and then collected information to confirm their decision. Conclusion: Differences in overall crew performance were associated with differences in situational awareness, information management, and decision strategy. Captain personality profiles were associated with these differences, a finding with implications for crew selection and training.
Chen, Stephanie Y.; Ross, Brian H.; Murphy, Gregory L.
Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of whether categories are relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use both was and was not appropriate. PMID:25309475
Rabinovich, Mikhail I.; Huerta, Ramón; Afraimovich, Valentin
We suggest a new paradigm for intelligent decision-making suitable for dynamical sequential activity of animals or artificial autonomous devices that depends on the characteristics of the internal and external world. To do it we introduce a new class of dynamical models that are described by ordinary differential equations with a finite number of possibilities at the decision points, and also include rules solving this uncertainty. Our approach is based on the competition between possible cognitive states using their stable transient dynamics. The model controls the order of choosing successive steps of a sequential activity according to the environment and decision-making criteria. Two strategies (high-risk and risk-aversion conditions) that move the system out of an erratic environment are analyzed.
Taverner, William J.; Brick, Peggy
This lesson helps participants examine their own attitudes and feelings about being faced with an unplanned pregnancy and understand the difficult choices involved when women need to make a decision about unplanned pregnancy. The lesson uses brainstorming, discussion, an examination of "case studies," and role-playing to help participants develop…
Knoop, Robert; O'Reilly, Robert
This study attempts to render more specific the curriculum decisionmaking models of Goodlad and Myers. Perceived and desired loci and methods of making curriculum decisions in the secondary schools were determined by secondary school personnel in Ontario schools. Results indicated that teachers desired to have their ideas considered rather than to…
Szu, Harold; Jung, TP; Makeig, Scott
We propose to enhance the decision making of pilot, co-pilot teams, over a range of vehicle platforms, with the aid of neuroscience. The goal is to optimize this collaborative decision making interplay in time-critical, stressful situations. We will research and measure human facial expressions, personality typing, and brainwave measurements to help answer questions related to optimum decision-making in group situations. Further, we propose to examine the nature of intuition in this decision making process. The brainwave measurements will be facilitated by a University of California, San Diego (UCSD) developed wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) sensing cap. We propose to measure brainwaves covering the whole head area with an electrode density of N=256, and yet keep within the limiting wireless bandwidth capability of m=32 readouts. This is possible because solving Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and finding the hidden brainwave sources allow us to concentrate selective measurements with an organized sparse source -->s sensing matrix [Φs], rather than the traditional purely random compressive sensing (CS) matrix[Φ].
Davis, Don E; Hook, Joshua N; Van Tongeren, Daryl R; DeBlaere, Cirleen; Rice, Kenneth G; Worthington, Everett L
Prominent models and interventions designed to promote forgiveness have distinguished one's decision to forgive from achieving forgiveness as an end state, but because of a lack of a strong measure, there is a weak research base on making a decision to forgive. Thus, in three studies, the authors developed the Decision to Forgive Scale (DTFS) and examined evidence for its reliability and construct validity. The article focused on distinguishing making a decision to forgive from achieved level of forgiveness. Scores on the DTFS showed evidence of reliability, with Cronbach's alpha coefficients ranging from .92 to .94, and a 1-week temporal stability coefficient of .68. Using several strategies, the authors demonstrated that the DTFS is empirically distinct from the Transgression-Related Interpersonal Motivations scale (TRIM; McCullough et al., 1998). Namely, a 3-factor confirmatory factor analysis that included the DTFS and the 2 TRIM subscales showed excellent fit, suggesting these instruments assess 3 different constructs. The DTFS was only moderately related to the TRIM subscales, was more strongly related to stage of change than the TRIM, and predicted subsequent TRIM scores in a cross-lagged model. Finally, although decisions to forgive generally suggested greater forgiveness, these constructs interacted to predict existential distress. Namely, as decisional forgiveness increased, revenge was more strongly related to existential distress. Overall, the DTFS shows considerable promise for further clinical and basic research applications.
Kabler, Michael L.; Genshaft, Judy L.
Three areas related to decision making are discussed: (1) a research survey summary of multidisciplinary team decision making (MTD); (2) four approaches for structuring MTD decision making; and (3) styles of leadership as a factor that impacts on the decision-making teams. (Author/PN)
Kerr, Norbert L; Tindale, R Scott
Theory and research on small group performance and decision making is reviewed. Recent trends in group performance research have found that process gains as well as losses are possible, and both are frequently explained by situational and procedural contexts that differentially affect motivation and resource coordination. Research has continued on classic topics (e.g., brainstorming, group goal setting, stress, and group performance) and relatively new areas (e.g., collective induction). Group decision making research has focused on preference combination for continuous response distributions and group information processing. New approaches (e.g., group-level signal detection) and traditional topics (e.g., groupthink) are discussed. New directions, such as nonlinear dynamic systems, evolutionary adaptation, and technological advances, should keep small group research vigorous well into the future.
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. PMID:25987751
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.
Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.
Einhom and Hogarth (1979) Mynatt , Doherty, and Tweney (1977) Wason and Johnson-Laird (1972) 2. Decision making Models: These are not usually mathematical...395-416. Mynatt , C. R., M. E. Doherty, and R. D. Tweney. "Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: an experimental study of scientific...Telephone Interview, 1998. Mynatt , C. R., M. E. Doherty, and R. D. Tweney. "Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: an experimental
Focuses on the use of graphic representations to enable students to improve their decision making skills in the social studies. Explores three visual aids used in assisting students with decision making: (1) the force field; (2) the decision tree; and (3) the decision making grid. (CMK)
Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio
Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…
Background to Decision Making, 103. (No reference listed). 69 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS Bertalanffy , Ludwig von . General Systems Theory...Washington, D.C.: Headquarters, Department of the Army), 1993, 6-3. 30 Carl Von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans by Michael Howard and Peter Paret...Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke’s famous dictum that “no plan survives contact with the enemy.”2 Current keystone doctrine establishes flexibility
Weber, Elke U; Johnson, Eric J
A full range of psychological processes has been put into play to explain judgment and choice phenomena. Complementing work on attention, information integration, and learning, decision research over the past 10 years has also examined the effects of goals, mental representation, and memory processes. In addition to deliberative processes, automatic processes have gotten closer attention, and the emotions revolution has put affective processes on a footing equal to cognitive ones. Psychological process models provide natural predictions about individual differences and lifespan changes and integrate across judgment and decision making (JDM) phenomena. "Mindful" JDM research leverages our knowledge about psychological processes into causal explanations for important judgment and choice regularities, emphasizing the adaptive use of an abundance of processing alternatives. Such explanations supplement and support existing mathematical descriptions of phenomena such as loss aversion or hyperbolic discounting. Unlike such descriptions, they also provide entry points for interventions designed to help people overcome judgments or choices considered undesirable.
Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Ibáñez, Agustín; Roca, María; Torralva, Teresa; Manes, Facundo
A large proportion of human social neuroscience research has focused on the issue of decision-making. Impaired decision-making is a symptomatic feature of a number of neurodegenerative diseases, but the nature of these decision-making deficits depends on the particular disease. Thus, examining the qualitative differences in decision-making impairments associated with different neurodegenerative diseases could provide valuable information regarding the underlying neural basis of decision-making. Nevertheless, few comparative reports of decision-making across patient groups exist. In this Review, we examine the neuroanatomical substrates of decision-making in relation to the neuropathological changes that occur in Alzheimer disease, frontotemporal dementia, Parkinson disease and Huntington disease. We then examine the main findings from studies of decision-making in these neurodegenerative diseases. Finally, we suggest a number of recommendations that future studies could adopt to aid our understanding of decision-making cognition.
Adida, M; Maurel, M; Kaladjian, A; Fakra, E; Lazerges, P; Da Fonseca, D; Belzeaux, R; Cermolacce, M; Azorin, J-M
Abnormalities involving the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have long been postulated to underpin the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Investigations of PFC integrity have focused mainly on the dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) and abnormalities in this region have been extensively documented. However, defects in schizophrenia may extend to other prefrontal regions, including the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC), and evidence of VMPFC abnormalities comes from neuropathological, structural and functional studies. Patients with acquired brain injury to the VMPFC display profound disruption of social behaviour and poor judgment in their personal lives. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was developed to assess decision-making in these neurological cases : it presents a series of 100 choices from four card decks that differ in the distribution of rewarding and punishing outcomes. Whilst healthy volunteers gradually develop a preference for the two "safe" decks over the course of the task, patients with VMPFC lesions maintain a preference for the two "risky" decks which are associated with high reinforcement in the short term, but significant long-term debt. Interestingly, damage to VMPFC may cause both poor performance on the IGT and lack of insight concerning the acquired personality modification. Recently, our group reported a trait-related decisionmaking impairment in the three phases of bipolar disorder. In a PET study, VMPFC dysfunction was shown in bipolar manic patients impaired on a decision-making task and an association between decision-making cognition and lack of insight was described in mania. A quantitative association between grey matter volume of VMPFC and memory impairment was previously reported in schizophrenia. Research suggests that lack of insight is a prevalent feature in schizophrenia patients, like auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, and disorganized speech and thinking. Because schizophrenia is associated with significant social or occupational
Forsythe, J. Chris; Speed, Ann E.; Jordan, Sabina E.; Xavier, Patrick G.
A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.
Fessler, J F; Adams, S B
Decision making in ruminant orthopedics is determined by many factors, the most of important of which is age, size, and value of the patient, the nature of the injury, the prognosis for effective treatment and satisfactory healing, the intentions of the client, and the experiences of the veterinarian. Ruminant orthopedics currently is expanding to include the treatment of llamas and small ruminants as companion animals in addition to the treatment of valuable livestock. The future promises increasing sophistication in treatments and an ever higher quality of patient care.
Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the interpretation of evidence ratios. A natural question is, how often will you get it right when you choose on the basis of some threshold value of the evidence ratio? The evidence ratio will be different in different realizations of the data, and its utility can be examined in a Neyman-Pearson like way to see what the trade-offs are between statistical power (the chance of "getting it right") versus the false alarm rate, picking the alternative hypothesis when the null is actually true. I will show some simple examples which show that there can be a surprisingly large range for an evidence ratio under different realizations of the data. It seems best not to simply rely on Jeffrey's scale when decisions have to be taken, but also to examine the probability of taking the "wrong" decision if some evidence ratio is taken to be decisive. Interestingly, Turing knew this and applied it during WWII, although (like much else) he did not publish it.
This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult.
Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V
In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions.
Wang, Xinqing; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Dong; Zhu, Huijie; Zhang, Qing
The problem of fault reasoning has aroused great concern in scientific and engineering fields. However, fault investigation and reasoning of complex system is not a simple reasoning decision-making problem. It has become a typical multi-constraint and multi-objective reticulate optimization decision-making problem under many influencing factors and constraints. So far, little research has been carried out in this field. This paper transforms the fault reasoning problem of complex system into a paths-searching problem starting from known symptoms to fault causes. Three optimization objectives are considered simultaneously: maximum probability of average fault, maximum average importance, and minimum average complexity of test. Under the constraints of both known symptoms and the causal relationship among different components, a multi-objective optimization mathematical model is set up, taking minimizing cost of fault reasoning as the target function. Since the problem is non-deterministic polynomial-hard(NP-hard), a modified multi-objective ant colony algorithm is proposed, in which a reachability matrix is set up to constrain the feasible search nodes of the ants and a new pseudo-random-proportional rule and a pheromone adjustment mechinism are constructed to balance conflicts between the optimization objectives. At last, a Pareto optimal set is acquired. Evaluation functions based on validity and tendency of reasoning paths are defined to optimize noninferior set, through which the final fault causes can be identified according to decision-making demands, thus realize fault reasoning of the multi-constraint and multi-objective complex system. Reasoning results demonstrate that the improved multi-objective ant colony optimization(IMACO) can realize reasoning and locating fault positions precisely by solving the multi-objective fault diagnosis model, which provides a new method to solve the problem of multi-constraint and multi-objective fault diagnosis and
editor at Harvard Business Review , wrote an essay called, When to Trust Your Gut. The essay describes intuitive decision-making in business leaders...9 Peter F. Drucker, "The Effective Decision," in Harvard Business Review on Decision Making, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2001, pp...2-3. Hereafter cited as Drucker, HBR. 10 Drucker, HBR, p. 2. 11 Amitai Etzioni, "Humble Decision Making," in Harvard Business Review on Decision
Goldberg, Alvin A.; Hannegan, David W., Jr.
This paper applies some of the research done on small group decision-making to the process of identification and selection of colleges by high school students. It argues that, since the decisions that are reached are often group decisions, or are at least strongly influenced by groups, an understanding of group decision-making processes can be…
Labrecque, Michel; Ratté, Stéphane; Frémont, Pierre; Cauchon, Michel; Ouellet, Jérôme; Hogg, William; McGowan, Jessie; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Njoya, Merlin; Légaré, France
Abstract Objective To compare the ability of users of 2 medical search engines, InfoClinique and the Trip database, to provide correct answers to clinical questions and to explore the perceived effects of the tools on the clinical decision-making process. Design Randomized trial. Setting Three family medicine units of the family medicine program of the Faculty of Medicine at Laval University in Quebec city, Que. Participants Fifteen second-year family medicine residents. Intervention Residents generated 30 structured questions about therapy or preventive treatment (2 questions per resident) based on clinical encounters. Using an Internet platform designed for the trial, each resident answered 20 of these questions (their own 2, plus 18 of the questions formulated by other residents, selected randomly) before and after searching for information with 1 of the 2 search engines. For each question, 5 residents were randomly assigned to begin their search with InfoClinique and 5 with the Trip database. Main outcome measures The ability of residents to provide correct answers to clinical questions using the search engines, as determined by third-party evaluation. After answering each question, participants completed a questionnaire to assess their perception of the engine’s effect on the decision-making process in clinical practice. Results Of 300 possible pairs of answers (1 answer before and 1 after the initial search), 254 (85%) were produced by 14 residents. Of these, 132 (52%) and 122 (48%) pairs of answers concerned questions that had been assigned an initial search with InfoClinique and the Trip database, respectively. Both engines produced an important and similar absolute increase in the proportion of correct answers after searching (26% to 62% for InfoClinique, for an increase of 36%; 24% to 63% for the Trip database, for an increase of 39%; P = .68). For all 30 clinical questions, at least 1 resident produced the correct answer after searching with either
1992) and MINOS (Murtagh & Saunders, 1983) non-linear programming ( NLP ) solvers, a simple, hospital-based textbook problem (Anderson et al., 2012...example, using the CONOPT NLP solver in GAMS resulted in an alternate (but similar) solution set. Detailing multiple solution sets that result in...changing funding (COST) and FTEs as shown in Table 4 (CONOPT) and in Table 5 (MINOS). Both NLP solvers executed this analysis (see the Appendix for the
Amir, Tami; Gati, Itamar
The present research investigated the relations among the measured and the expressed career decision-making difficulties in a sample of 299 young adults who intended to apply to college or university. As hypothesised, the correlations between career decision-making difficulties, as measured by the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire…
Bridge, Jeffrey A.; McBee-Strayer, Sandra M.; Cannon, Elizabeth A.; Sheftall, Arielle H.; Reynolds, Brady; Campo, John V.; Pajer, Kathleen A.; Barbe, Remy P.; Brent, David A.
Objective: Decision-making deficits have been linked to suicidal behavior in adults. However, it remains unclear whether impaired decision making plays a role in the etiopathogenesis of youth suicidal behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine decision-making processes in adolescent suicide attempters and never-suicidal comparison…
Ren, Jingzheng; Liang, Hanwei; Dong, Liang; Sun, Lu; Gao, Zhiqiu
Industrial symbiosis provides novel and practical pathway to the design for the sustainability. Decision support tool for its verification is necessary for practitioners and policy makers, while to date, quantitative research is limited. The objective of this work is to present an innovative approach for supporting decision-making in the design for the sustainability with the implementation of industrial symbiosis in chemical complex. Through incorporating the emergy theory, the model is formulated as a multi-objective approach that can optimize both the economic benefit and sustainable performance of the integrated industrial system. A set of emergy based evaluation index are designed. Multi-objective Particle Swarm Algorithm is proposed to solve the model, and the decision-makers are allowed to choose the suitable solutions form the Pareto solutions. An illustrative case has been studied by the proposed method, a few of compromises between high profitability and high sustainability can be obtained for the decision-makers/stakeholders to make decision.
Holder, A R
Failure to obtain "adequate" medical care for a child constitutes child neglect, which may be used as the basis for prosecution of parents, removal of the child from the home, or court-ordered medical treatment. "Adequate" care is usually construed as that which is given by a licensed physician, but, in case of dispute, courts almost never engage in choosing one medical approach over another. The principle that parents may not refuse medical care, however, is made very difficult when children have malignancies--the long-term nature of the treatment means that, if the child is left at home, court order or not, the parents may flee with their child. Removing the child from the home, however, adds that trauma to the ill child's burdens. Questions should be asked before making a request to a court to order a therapy which will prolong but not save a child's life if the parents would prefer to spare their child the side effects. Parents, however, may always refuse to permit their child to participate in research studies, no matter how promising. Adolescents are increasingly believed to be capable of medical decision making; most courts, however, would not allow an adolescent to refuse life-saving treatment.
Starcke, Katrin; Brand, Matthias
Many decisions must be made under stress, and many decision situations elicit stress responses themselves. Thus, stress and decision making are intricately connected, not only on the behavioral level, but also on the neural level, i.e., the brain regions that underlie intact decision making are regions that are sensitive to stress-induced changes. The purpose of this review is to summarize the findings from studies that investigated the impact of stress on decision making. The review includes those studies that examined decision making under stress in humans and were published between 1985 and October 2011. The reviewed studies were found using PubMed and PsycInfo searches. The review focuses on studies that have examined the influence of acutely induced laboratory stress on decision making and that measured both decision-making performance and stress responses. Additionally, some studies that investigated decision making under naturally occurring stress levels and decision-making abilities in patients who suffer from stress-related disorders are described. The results from the studies that were included in the review support the assumption that stress affects decision making. If stress confers an advantage or disadvantage in terms of outcome depends on the specific task or situation. The results also emphasize the role of mediating and moderating variables. The results are discussed with respect to underlying psychological and neural mechanisms, implications for everyday decision making and future research directions.
Sun, S A; Djordjević, S; Khu, S T
It is widely recognised that flood risk needs to be taken into account when designing a storm sewer network. Flood risk is generally a combination of flood consequences and flood probabilities. This paper aims to explore the decision making in flood risk based storm sewer network design. A multiobjective optimization is proposed to find the Pareto front of optimal designs in terms of low construction cost and low flood risk. The decision making process then follows this multi-objective optimization to select a best design from the Pareto front. The traditional way of designing a storm sewer system based on a predefined design storm is used as one of the decision making criteria. Additionally, three commonly used risk based criteria, i.e., the expected flood risk based criterion, the Hurwicz criterion and the stochastic dominance based criterion, are investigated and applied in this paper. Different decisions are made according to different criteria as a result of different concerns represented by the criteria. The proposed procedure is applied to a simple storm sewer network design to demonstrate its effectiveness and the different criteria are compared.
Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.
Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…
Pahwa, Rohini; Fulginiti, Anthony; Brekke, John S; Rice, Eric
Disclosure related to mental illness has been linked to various positive outcomes, including better mental health. However, many individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) continue to practice non-disclosure. Even though disclosure inherently occurs within the context of one's social relationships, research has generally conceptualized mental illness disclosure as an individual level phenomenon and neglected to consider preferences concerning to whom an individual discloses and the factors that influence this decision. The current study uses the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM) by Greene (2009) to better understand the processes of mental illness disclosure preference and selective disclosure for individuals with SMI (n = 60) using multivariate random intercept logistic regression with an emphasis on the constituent factors of disclosure preference at both individual and relational levels. The majority of participants were found to practice selective disclosure, with 68% of the participants identifying at least 1 network member to whom they could disclose. Family members and friends were central to the selective disclosure process, comprising the greatest proportion of network members who, both were and were not identified as preferred confidants. Women were found to show higher odds of preference for mental illness disclosure than men. Having lower perceived social support was associated with lower odds of disclosure preference. Among relational factors, greater relationship availability and lower dyadic tangible social support were associated with lower odds of disclosure preference. Practice and research implications of using social network analysis to get a deeper understanding of disclosure and disclosure preference are discussed, including implications for future interventions targeting stigma reduction. (PsycINFO Database Record
Patrick, Nicholas J. M.
Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).
Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.
2, Modelisation et Application, Masson, Paris. Chyen, G. H-L., and A.H. Levis, 1985, "Analysis of Preprocessors and Decision Aids in Organizations...34Decision Aiding and Coordination in Decision-making Organizations," S.M. Thesis , LIDS-TH-1737, Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, MIT
Decision-making processes were investigated in a laboratory analogue of clinical diagnosis and through computer simulations of decision making. The data indicated that nonprobabilistic theories can provide plausible and complete accounts of decision behavior and can improve quantitative accuracy of predictions that are based on traditional…
Kortas, Linda; And Others
The Career Decision Scale, Assessment of Career Decision Making, and Cognitive Differentiation Grid were administered to 598 community college students. Results indicated a relationship between decision-making styles and vocational construct structure. Poorly developed vocational schemas predispose individuals toward dependent and intuitive…
Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.
We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…
Morey, Janis T.; Dansereau, Donald F.
College students' decision making is often less than optimal and sometimes leads to negative consequences. The effectiveness of two strategies for improving student decision making--node-link mapping and social perspective taking (SPT)--are examined. Participants using SPT were significantly better able to evaluate decision options and develop…
Smith, D L; Hamrick, M H; Anspaugh, D J
Teachers are usually very enthusiastic in their evaluations of decision stories. Decision Story Strategies offer a change of pace, promote student involvement and stimulate creative thinking, problem solving and everpresent creative teaching-learning opportunities. The real-life problems presented within the structure of a decision story provide meaningful learning opportunities for students. Students begin to think in a broader perspective when considering other points of view and information sources. The Decision Story Strategy used with the Decision-Making Model provides a powerful tool for health educators to develop skills for making and evaluating decisions in an interesting and meaningful context. It may not be a panacea for all health educators, but is an effective strategy for the teacher concerned with developing independent decision makers. Most importantly, students are provided opportunities to solve their present problems as well as develop decision-making skills for the future.
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.
Mosqueda-Díaz, Angélica; Mendoza-Parra, Sara; Jofré-Aravena, Viviane
Decision making in health is a frequent situation, although potentially difficult, depending on patient/user characteristics and the context or the situation of health. This causes decisional conflicts in patients/users. The present study proposes to analyze the decision making process in health, conceptually, and nurses' contributions to understand and confront the phenomenon. The Ottawa the Model of Decisions Making in Health, proposed by Annette O'Connor, arises as a useful tool that enables nurses to carry out effective interventions with persons who face decision problems. Patients/users can assume a more active participation in the decisions on their own health.
Saksinchai, Apinat; Boonchuay, Chanwit; Ongsakul, Weerakorn
This paper proposes a multi-objective bidding strategy for a generation company (GenCo) in uniform price spot market using non-dominated sorting particle swarm optimization (NSPSO). Instead of using a tradeoff technique, NSPSO is introduced to solve the multi-objective strategic bidding problem considering expected profit maximization and risk (profit variation) minimization. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to simulate rivals' bidding behavior. Test results indicate that the proposed approach can provide the efficient non-dominated solution front effectively. In addition, it can be used as a decision making tool for a GenCo compromising between expected profit and price risk in spot market.
Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery
The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.
Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos
Human performance on perceptual classification tasks approaches that of an ideal observer, but economic decisions are often inconsistent and intransitive, with preferences reversing according to the local context. We discuss the view that suboptimal choices may result from the efficient coding of decision-relevant information, a strategy that allows expected inputs to be processed with higher gain than unexpected inputs. Efficient coding leads to ‘robust’ decisions that depart from optimality but maximise the information transmitted by a limited-capacity system in a rapidly-changing world. We review recent work showing that when perceptual environments are variable or volatile, perceptual decisions exhibit the same suboptimal context-dependence as economic choices, and propose a general computational framework that accounts for findings across the two domains. PMID:25488076
Reduction in prices now makes it possible for almost any institution to use computer graphics for administrative decision making and research. Current and potential uses of computer graphics in these two areas are discussed. (JN)
BAILEY, STEPHEN K.
THE AUTHOR EXAMINES THE VARIOUS WAYS IN WHICH THE UNIVERSITY CAN AND SHOULD INFLUENCE URBAN DECISION MAKING. THE CENTRAL UNIVERSITY ROLE IS SENSITIZING THE DECISION MAKERS AND THE CITIZENS TO HUMAN MISERY, SUCH AS BIGOTRY, SQUALOR, DISEASE, UGLINESS, POVERTY, AND IGNORANCE. LONG-RANGE ROLES ARE PINPOINTING THE PROBLEMS URBAN DECISION MAKERS SHOULD…
Karl, Herman A.; Turner, Christine E.
Alan Leshner's Editorial “Public engagement with science” (14 Feb., p. 977) highlights a conundrum: Why is science often ignored in important societal decisions, even as the call for decisions based on sound science escalates? One reason is that decision-making is often driven by a variety of nonscientific, adversarial, and stakeholder dynamics
Hill, Marie C; Cox, Carol L
Immunisation decision making is not a straightforward process for parents. Many factors influence parental decision making on whether they immunise their child with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. The feasibility study described in this article provides insight into influencing factors associated with decisions regarding the immunisation of children by parents. The study findings suggest that the practice nurse is a credible source of information for parents seeking informed decision making. At a time when the incidence of measles and mumps is rising in the UK, the provision of appropriate information by the practice nurse has the potential to increase uptake of the MMR vaccine.
Fischer, Ute; Orasanu, Judith; Wich, Mike; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)
In traditional laboratory studies of decision making, the experimenter structures the problem, defines the goal and specifies available information. In contrast, when people make decisions in non-laboratory environments characterized as complex, dynamic and consequential, they must first identify the problem and determine what information and responses are relevant. The present research was designed to investigate which situational aspects are important to experienced pilots making aviation decisions. Twenty-eight professional pilots were asked to sort descriptions of 22 aircraft incidents into piles involving similar types of major decisions. Preliminary analyses suggest four underlying variables: time pressure, risk level, available resources, and certainty of goal attainment.
Brazer, S. David; Rich, William; Ross, Susan A.
Purpose: The dual purpose of this paper is to determine how superintendents in US school districts work with stakeholders in the decision-making process and to learn how different choices superintendents make affect decision outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This multiple case study of three school districts employs qualitative methodology to…
HILTON, THOMAS L.; AND OTHERS
THE PROBLEM OF THIS LONGITUDINAL STUDY WAS TO IDENTIFY THE COGNITIVE PROCESSES WHICH ARE INVOLVED IN CAREER DECISION-MAKING AND THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF THESE PROCESSES ON CAREER DEVELOPMENT. AREAS OF CONCERN WERE (1) IDENTIFICATION OF STRATEGIES BY WHICH AN INDIVIDUAL CAN OVERCOME DECISION-MAKING DIFFICULTY, (2) ASSESSMENT OF THE SHORT-TERM…
Brower, Robert E.; Balch, Bradley V.
It is essential for every school leader to possess the savvy to effect positive change, raise achievement levels, and foster a positive school climate. Now it seems that the struggle for school leaders to make productive decisions has become clouded with ever-growing uncertainty and skepticism. "Transformational Leadership & Decision Making in…
Wales, Charles E.; And Others
Defines education's new paradigm as schooling based on decision making, the critical thinking skills serving it, and the knowledge base supporting it. Outlines a model decision-making process using a hypothetical breakfast problem; a late riser chooses goals, generates ideas, develops an action plan, and implements and evaluates it. (4 references)…
Seright, Teresa J.
The purpose of this study was to develop substantive theory regarding decision making by the novice nurse in a rural hospital setting. Interviews were guided by the following research questions: What cues were used by novice rural registered nurses in order to make clinical decisions? What were the sources of feedback which influenced subsequent…
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience. PMID:27034630
Yanik, H. Bahadir; Memis, Yasin
Engaging students in studies about conservation and sustainability can support their understanding of making environmental conscious decisions to conserve Earth. This article aims to contribute these efforts and direct students' attention to how they can use mathematics to make environmental decisions. Contributors to iSTEM: Integrating…
Moser, Albine; Houtepen, Rob; van der Bruggen, Harry; Spreeuwenberg, Cor; Widdershoven, Guy
This article examines how people with type 2 diabetes perceive autonomous decision making and which moral capacities they consider important in diabetes nurses' support of autonomous decision making. Fifteen older adults with type 2 diabetes were interviewed in a nurse-led unit. First, the data were analysed using the grounded theory method. The participants described a variety of decision-making processes in the nurse and family care-giver context. Later, descriptions of the decision-making processes were analysed using hermeneutic text interpretation. We suggest first- and second-order moral capacities that nurses specializing in diabetes need to promote the autonomous decision making of their patients. We recommend nurses to engage in ongoing, interactive reflective practice to further develop these moral capacities.
The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…
Yang, Chyan; Wu, Chia-Chun
The purpose of this research is to provide managers of shopping websites information regarding consumer purchasing decisions based on the Consumer Styles Inventory (CSI). According to the CSI, one can capture what decision-making styles online shoppers use. Furthermore, this research also discusses the gender differences among online shoppers. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to understand the decision-making styles and discriminant analysis was used to distinguish the differences between female and male shoppers. The result shows that there are differences in purchasing decisions between online female and male Internet users.
This book approaches the smoking debate from a new angle. The thrust of the study was to determine if smokers are cognizant of the risks connected with smoking, and if so, how these risk beliefs influence the decision to smoke. The study evaluates the government's anti-smoking policies and recommends changes to these policies. Viscusi does not address the actual health risks of smoking independent of risk perception and subsequent behavioral data; the US Surgeon General's smoking risk assessments are acknowledged at face vale.
much caffeine can cause headaches, irritability, sleeplessness, and heart problems. Six cups of instant (or four cups of percolated) coffee a day is...operation of the aircraft and to implement the decision in a timely manner. (Berlin, Gruber, Holmes, Jensen, Lau, Mills , & O’Kane, 1982, p. 4) The need for a...into the Air Force UPT Program. 9 REFERENCES Berlin, J. I., Gruber, E. V., Holmes, C. W., Jensen, P. K., Lau, J. R., Mills , J. W., & O’Kane, J. M
Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín
The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384
Borer, Nicholas K.; Mavris, DImitri N.
Most practical engineering systems design problems have multiple and conflicting objectives. Furthermore, the satisfactory attainment level for each objective ( requirement ) is likely uncertain early in the design process. Systems with long design cycle times will exhibit more of this uncertainty throughout the design process. This is further complicated if the system is expected to perform for a relatively long period of time, as now it will need to grow as new requirements are identified and new technologies are introduced. These points identify a need for a systems design technique that enables decision making amongst multiple objectives in the presence of uncertainty. Traditional design techniques deal with a single objective or a small number of objectives that are often aggregates of the overarching goals sought through the generation of a new system. Other requirements, although uncertain, are viewed as static constraints to this single or multiple objective optimization problem. With either of these formulations, enabling tradeoffs between the requirements, objectives, or combinations thereof is a slow, serial process that becomes increasingly complex as more criteria are added. This research proposal outlines a technique that attempts to address these and other idiosyncrasies associated with modern aerospace systems design. The proposed formulation first recasts systems design into a multiple criteria decision making problem. The now multiple objectives are decomposed to discover the critical characteristics of the objective space. Tradeoffs between the objectives are considered amongst these critical characteristics by comparison to a probabilistic ideal tradeoff solution. The proposed formulation represents a radical departure from traditional methods. A pitfall of this technique is in the validation of the solution: in a multi-objective sense, how can a decision maker justify a choice between non-dominated alternatives? A series of examples help the
Lee, Daeyeol; Seo, Hyojung
Human choice behaviors during social interactions often deviate from the predictions of game theory. This might arise partly from the limitations in the cognitive abilities necessary for recursive reasoning about the behaviors of others. In addition, during iterative social interactions, choices might change dynamically as knowledge about the intentions of others and estimates for choice outcomes are incrementally updated via reinforcement learning. Some of the brain circuits utilized during social decision making might be general-purpose and contribute to isomorphic individual and social decision making. By contrast, regions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and temporal parietal junction (TPJ) might be recruited for cognitive processes unique to social decision making.
Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.
As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and
Parker, Francine M; Morris, Arlene H
Shared decision-making is an effective management strategy that may have positive implications for nurse educators facing curricular and course delivery issues. Use of shared or participative decision-making recognizes that decisions made for the overall good of the organization should include those integrally involved, i.e., faculty, students and administration. Ultimately, effective student learning should be the outcome of decisions related to curricular and content delivery. In this anecdotal paper, the authors present shared decision-making (SDM) as a management strategy that may be effectively utilized in a range of situations in educational settings. An exemplar is presented regarding changes in course delivery methods at two sister schools of nursing. Strategies to promote successful implementation, as well as challenges in initiating SDM, are discussed. The information presented in this paper can benefit nurse educators by offering a collaborative approach to the issues of evolving nursing curricula and content delivery.
Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement
to embrace improvisation and reflection.3 The theory of reflection-in-action requires practitioners to question the structure of assumptions within...how we make decisions shape these heuristics and their accompanying biases. The theory of reflection-in-action and its implications for decision... theory ) which sought to describe human behavior as a rational maximization of cost-benefit decisions, Kahne- man and Tversky provided a simple
Decisionproe-ssr-Deci-sion outcomes, Organizational Learning , Strategic Management, Decision Models, Culture, Group Think, Decision Errors, Industrial...in the process mode. a~q REFERENCES Argyris, C. and Schon, D.A. Organizational Learning : A Theory of Action Perspectives. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley...process of strategic decision making. Richard Normann, associated with the Service Management Group, Paris, provides a framework for organizational
wide range of scales and species from social bacteria to large mammals. (a) Papers published in peer-reviewed journals (N/A for none) Enter List of...groups of independent agents, across taxonomic groups, from bacteria to humans. Individual reports for the various years are attached as appendices...used to make predictions about how bacteria navigate noisy, dynamic environments. The mathematical tools we have developed are general and apply to
Shankar, Karthik H
How realistic is it to adopt a quantum random walk model to account for decisions involving two choices? Here, we discuss the neural plausibility and the effect of initial state and boundary thresholds on such a model and contrast it with various features of the classical random walk model of decision making.
Discusses the impact of public opinion on government decision-making, and develops a model that describes how certain input or control factors can combine to produce discontinuous or divergent policy decisions. Available from: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Box 211, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, single copies available. (Author/JG)
We propose a model of vocational choice that can be used for analyzing and guiding the decision processes underlying career and job choices. Our model is based on research in behavioral decision making (BDM), in particular the choice goals framework developed by Bettman, Luce, and Payne (1998). The basic model involves two major processes. First,…
Butow, Phyllis; Tattersall, Martin
Cancer treatment outcomes have improved over the past 20 years, but treatment decision making in this context remains complex. There are often a number of reasonable treatment alternatives, including no treatment in some circumstances. Patients and doctors often have to weigh up uncertain benefits against uncertain costs. Shared decision making…
This paper suggests an innovative idea of using the "technology fair" as a means for promoting pre-service teachers (university students) decision-making skills. The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of a procedure of working with primary school children to complete and present a technology fair project, on the decision-making…
Veksler, Vladislav D.; Gray, Wayne D.; Schoelles, Michael J.
Reinforcement learning (RL) models of decision-making cannot account for human decisions in the absence of prior reward or punishment. We propose a mechanism for choosing among available options based on goal-option association strengths, where association strengths between objects represent previously experienced object proximity. The proposed…
Yu, Jai Y; Frank, Loren M
When making a decision it is often necessary to consider the available alternatives in order to choose the most appropriate option. This deliberative process, where the pros and cons of each option are considered, relies on memories of past actions and outcomes. The hippocampus and prefrontal cortex are required for memory encoding, memory retrieval and decision making, but it is unclear how these areas support deliberation. Here we examine the potential neural substrates of these processes in the rat. The rat is a powerful model to investigate the network mechanisms underlying deliberation in the mammalian brain given the anatomical and functional conservation of its hippocampus and prefrontal cortex to other mammalian systems. Importantly, it is amenable to large scale neural recording while performing laboratory tasks that exploit its natural decision-making behavior. Focusing on findings in the rat, we discuss how hippocampal-cortical interactions could provide a neural substrate for deliberative decision making.
Rosenbloom, Michael H; Schmahmann, Jeremy D; Price, Bruce H
Decision-making is a complex executive function that draws on past experience, present goals, and anticipation of outcome, and which is influenced by prevailing and predicted emotional tone and cultural context. Functional imaging investigations and focal lesion studies identify the orbitofrontal, anterior cingulate, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices as critical to decision-making. The authors review the connections of these prefrontal regions with the neocortex, limbic system, basal ganglia, and cerebellum, highlight current ideas regarding the cognitive processes of decision-making that these networks subserve, and present a novel integrated neuroanatomical model for decision-making. Finally, clinical relevance of this circuitry is illustrated through a discussion of frontotemporal dementia, traumatic brain injury, and sociopathy.
Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen
Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead. PMID:25999877
Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen
Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.
Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.
The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.
Shaposhnikov, A V
The article covers modern principles of the decision-making method, used in medicine and gastroenterology, in particular. These principles are based upon taking into consideration psychosocial features of a doctor and a patient, types of doctor's thinking and pathologic processes, as well as the effect of a range of negative factors, such as conformism, engageness of a doctor, neurotism etc. The author pioneers the treatment of decision-making in medicine.
requirements 1.2 - Agile Wargames, 2.6 - Mission Command Processes and decision-making, and 2.2 - Enhancing Subject Matter Expert ( SME ) Elicitation...Raymond, 1989). In the aviation domain, pilots exhibit different visual scanning patterns during various phases of flying under instrument flight rules ( IFR ... SME ) Elicitation Techniques, and 2.2 Mission Command Processes and decision-making (Alt et al., 2013). ARO research interests are defined by the
Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma
Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…
While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the
Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.
Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Torralva, Teresa; Roca, María; Szenkman, Daniela; Ibanez, Agustin; Richly, Pablo; Pose, Mariángeles; Manes, Facundo
We sought to investigate the decision making profile of Primary Progressive Aphasia (PPA) by assessing patients diagnosed with this disease (n = 10), patients diagnosed with behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD, n = 35), and matched controls (n = 14) using the Iowa Gambling Task, a widely used test that mimics real-life decision making. Participants were also evaluated with a complete neuropsychological battery. Patients with PPA were unable to adopt an advantageous strategy on the IGT, which resulted in a flat performance, different to that exhibited by both controls (who showed advantageous decision making) and bvFTD patients (who showed risk-appetitive behavior). The decision making profile of PPA patients was not associated with performance on language tasks and did not differ between sub-variants of the disease (namely, semantic dementia and progressive nonfluent aphasia). Investigating decision making in PPA is crucial both from a theoretical perspective, as it can shed light about the way in which language interacts with other cognitive functions, as well as a clinical standpoint, as it could lead to a more objective detection of impairments of decision making deficits in this condition.
Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Torralva, Teresa; Roca, María; Szenkman, Daniela; Ibanez, Agustin; Richly, Pablo; Pose, Mariángeles; Manes, Facundo
We sought to investigate the decision making profile of Primary Progressive Aphasia (PPA) by assessing patients diagnosed with this disease (n = 10), patients diagnosed with behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD, n = 35), and matched controls (n = 14) using the Iowa Gambling Task, a widely used test that mimics real-life decision making. Participants were also evaluated with a complete neuropsychological battery. Patients with PPA were unable to adopt an advantageous strategy on the IGT, which resulted in a flat performance, different to that exhibited by both controls (who showed advantageous decision making) and bvFTD patients (who showed risk-appetitive behavior). The decision making profile of PPA patients was not associated with performance on language tasks and did not differ between sub-variants of the disease (namely, semantic dementia and progressive nonfluent aphasia). Investigating decision making in PPA is crucial both from a theoretical perspective, as it can shed light about the way in which language interacts with other cognitive functions, as well as a clinical standpoint, as it could lead to a more objective detection of impairments of decision making deficits in this condition. PMID:22207422
Manning, Timmy; Sleator, Roy D; Walsh, Paul
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a class of powerful machine learning models for classification and function approximation which have analogs in nature. An ANN learns to map stimuli to responses through repeated evaluation of exemplars of the mapping. This learning approach results in networks which are recognized for their noise tolerance and ability to generalize meaningful responses for novel stimuli. It is these properties of ANNs which make them appealing for applications to bioinformatics problems where interpretation of data may not always be obvious, and where the domain knowledge required for deductive techniques is incomplete or can cause a combinatorial explosion of rules. In this paper, we provide an introduction to artificial neural network theory and review some interesting recent applications to bioinformatics problems. PMID:24335433
Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner
Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be
Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D
A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.
Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P; Grinband, Jack
Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy.
Yearsley, James M.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.
Classical probability theory has been influential in modelling decision processes, despite empirical findings that have been persistently paradoxical from classical perspectives. For such findings, some researchers have been successfully pursuing decision models based on quantum theory (QT). One unique feature of QT is the collapse postulate, which entails that measurements (or in decision-making, judgements) reset the state to be consistent with the measured outcome. If there is quantum structure in cognition, then there has to be evidence for the collapse postulate. A striking, a priori prediction, is that opinion change will be slowed down (under idealized conditions frozen) by continuous judgements. In physics, this is the quantum Zeno effect. We demonstrate a quantum Zeno effect in decision-making in humans and so provide evidence that advocates the use of quantum principles in decision theory, at least in some cases. PMID:27053743
Yearsley, James M; Pothos, Emmanuel M
Classical probability theory has been influential in modelling decision processes, despite empirical findings that have been persistently paradoxical from classical perspectives. For such findings, some researchers have been successfully pursuing decision models based on quantum theory (QT). One unique feature of QT is the collapse postulate, which entails that measurements (or in decision-making, judgements) reset the state to be consistent with the measured outcome. If there is quantum structure in cognition, then there has to be evidence for the collapse postulate. A striking, a prioriprediction, is that opinion change will be slowed down (under idealized conditions frozen) by continuous judgements. In physics, this is the quantum Zeno effect. We demonstrate a quantum Zeno effect in decision-making in humans and so provide evidence that advocates the use of quantum principles in decision theory, at least in some cases.
In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals.
Churchland, Anne K.; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N.
Simple perceptual tasks have laid the groundwork for understanding the neurobiology of decision making. Here, we challenge this foundation to explain how decision-making circuitry adjusts to a more difficult task. We measured behavioral and physiological responses on a 2- and 4-choice direction discrimination decision task. For both tasks, firing rates in the lateral intraparietal area appeared to reflect the accumulation of evidence for or against each choice. Evidence accumulation began at a lower firing rate for the 4-choice task, but reached a common level at the end of the decision process. The larger excursion suggests that subjects required more evidence before making a choice. Further, on both tasks, we observed a time-dependent rise in firing rates that may impose a deadline for deciding. These physiological observations constitute an effective strategy for handling increased task difficulty. The differences appear to explain subjects’ accuracy and reaction times. PMID:18488024
Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.
A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393
Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris
Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in
Kurek, Wojciech; Ostfeld, Avi
A multi-objective methodology utilizing the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2) linked to EPANET for trading-off pumping costs, water quality, and tanks sizing of water distribution systems is developed and demonstrated. The model integrates variable speed pumps for modeling the pumps operation, two water quality objectives (one based on chlorine disinfectant concentrations and one on water age), and tanks sizing cost which are assumed to vary with location and diameter. The water distribution system is subject to extended period simulations, variable energy tariffs, Kirchhoff's laws 1 and 2 for continuity of flow and pressure, tanks water level closure constraints, and storage-reliability requirements. EPANET Example 3 is employed for demonstrating the methodology on two multi-objective models, which differ in the imposed water quality objective (i.e., either with disinfectant or water age considerations). Three-fold Pareto optimal fronts are presented. Sensitivity analysis on the storage-reliability constraint, its influence on pumping cost, water quality, and tank sizing are explored. The contribution of this study is in tailoring design (tank sizing), pumps operational costs, water quality of two types, and reliability through residual storage requirements, in a single multi-objective framework. The model was found to be stable in generating multi-objective three-fold Pareto fronts, while producing explainable engineering outcomes. The model can be used as a decision tool for both pumps operation, water quality, required storage for reliability considerations, and tank sizing decision-making.
Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey
Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…
Transrectal ultrasonography has been available for making management decisions since the mid 1980’s. This technology allows for the real-time visualization of internal structures (i.e. ovary and fetus) that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. The use of this technology in making reproductive manag...
St John, C.
Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.
Zamarian, Laura; Höfler, Julia; Kuchukhidze, Giorgi; Delazer, Margarete; Bonatti, Elisabeth; Kemmler, Georg; Trinka, Eugen
Recent neuroimaging studies have reported structural and functional brain abnormalities in patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME), which may also involve cortical and subcortical networks that are important for decision making. This study is the first attempt to examine decision making in JME. Twenty-two patients with JME (median age 26.00, range 18-50) and 33 healthy controls (median age 26.00, range 18-57) participated in the study. For the JME group, the median age at seizure onset was 14.00 years (range 1-20); the median epilepsy duration was 11.50 years (range 3-45). Eleven patients (50 %) had pharmacoresistant seizures. All participants completed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a widely used standard task of decision making. In this task, contingencies are not explained and feedback on previous decisions has to be used in order to learn to choose the advantageous alternatives. In the IGT, patients with JME showed difficulty in learning to choose advantageously compared to healthy controls. Difficulty was enhanced for the patients with pharmacoresistant seizures. A correlation analysis revealed an association between decision-making performance of patients with JME and executive functions. Results indicate that patients with JME have difficulty in making advantageous decisions and that persistence of seizures might be a critical factor for cognitive functioning. Findings of this study add a new aspect to the neuropsychological profile of JME. Difficulty in decision making may impair functioning of patients with JME in everyday life and affect their adherence to treatment plans.
Medicine is incorporating genetic services into all avenues of health-care, ranging from the rarest to the most common diseases. Cognitive theories of decision-making still dominate professionals' understanding of patient decision-making about how to use genetic information and whether to have testing. I discovered a conceptual model of decision-making while carrying out a phenomenological-hermeneutic descriptive study of a convenience sample of 12 couples who were interviewed while deciding whether to undergo prenatal genetic testing. Thirty-two interviews were conducted with 12 men and 12 women separately. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and all data were analyzed using three levels of coding that were sorted into 30 categories and then abstracted into three emergent meta-themes that described men's and women's attempts to make sense and find meaning in how to best use prenatal genetic technology. Their descriptions of how they thought about, communicated, and coped with their decision were so detailed it was possible to discern nine different types of thinking they engaged in while deciding to accept or decline testing. They believed that decision-making is a process of working through your own personal style of thinking. This might include only one or any combination of the following types of thinking: analytical, ethical, moral, reflective, practical, hypothetical, judgmental, scary, and second sight, as described in detail by these 12 couples.
Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M
The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.
Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio
This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.
Postmes, T; Spears, R; Cihangir, S
Two studies investigated the impact of group norms for maintaining consensus versus norms for critical thought on group decisions in a modification of the biased sampling paradigm (G. Stasser & W. Titus, 1985). Both studies showed that critical norms improved the quality of decisions, whereas consensus norms did not. This effect appeared to be mediated by the perceived value of shared and unshared information: Consensus norm groups valued shared information more highly than critical groups did, and valence was a good predictor of decision outcome. In addition, the 2nd study showed that the group norm manipulation has no impact on individual decisions, consistent with the assumption that this is a group effect. Results suggest that the content of group norms is an important factor influencing the quality of group decision-making processes and that the content of group norms may be related to the group's proneness for groupthink.
Virtually all of the longer decisions are from incidents #30--32, a pumping station fire. This was a unique case in our interviews. First, it took almost...select one. In other words, we found virtually no Instances of the standard laboratory paradigm for decision making: conscious and deliberate...Heidi L. (1985). Eyewitness Memory Enhancement in the Police Interview: Cognitive Retrieval Mnemonics Versus Hypnosis . Journal of Applied Psychology, 70
of this effort to establish a universal CRM evaluation methodology useful throughout the 7 Codes icd/or AA industry. The author’s participation in the...on communication) to the decision training and evaluation being offered to the single-person cockpit elsewhere described as ADM. From a historical...risk assessment skills. 5) Learning to consider all resources available. 6) Learning to how evaluate your flight and decision making skills. Recent
tools . Decision support tools are systems designed to support and even enhance human decision making augmenting the amount of information that...well short of an reverse engineering system . IDA Pro was chosen because it is a commonly used reverse engineering tool and also used by the reverse...reason. A debugger is a tool designed for human use. For an artificial agent system , the interface provided by the debug tool unnecessarily limits
Kaitaniemi, Pekka; Scheiner, Annette; Klemola, Tero; Ruohomäki, Kai
Ecological systems contain a huge amount of quantitative variation between and within species and locations, which makes it difficult to obtain unambiguous verification of theoretical predictions. Ordinary experiments consider just a few explanatory factors and are prone to providing oversimplified answers because they ignore the complexity of the factors that underlie variation. We used multi-objective optimization (MO) for a mechanistic analysis of the potential ecological and evolutionary causes and consequences of variation in the life-history traits of a species of moth. Optimal life-history solutions were sought for environmental conditions where different life stages of the moth were subject to predation and other known fitness-reducing factors in a manner that was dependent on the duration of these life stages and on variable mortality rates. We found that multi-objective optimal solutions to these conditions that the moths regularly experience explained most of the life-history variation within this species. Our results demonstrate that variation can have a causal interpretation even for organisms under steady conditions. The results suggest that weather and species interactions can act as underlying causes of variation, and MO acts as a corresponding adaptive mechanism that maintains variation in the traits of organisms.
Wang, Zheng; Busemeyer, Jerome R
Many decision making tasks in life involve a categorization process, but the effects of categorization on subsequent decision making has rarely been studied. This issue was explored in three experiments (N=721), in which participants were shown a face stimulus on each trial and performed variations of categorization-decision tasks. On C-D trials, they categorized the stimulus and then made an action decision; on X-D trials, they were told the category and then made an action decision; on D-alone trials, they only made an action decision. An interference effect emerged in some of the conditions, such that the probability of an action on the D-alone trials (i.e., when there was no explicit categorization before the decision) differed from the total probability of the same action on the C-D or X-D trials (i.e., when there was explicit categorization before the decision). Interference effects are important because they indicate a violation of the classical law of total probability, which is assumed by many cognitive models. Across all three experiments, a complex pattern of interference effects systematically occurred for different types of stimuli and for different types of categorization-decision tasks. These interference effects present a challenge for traditional cognitive models, such as Markov and signal detection models, but a quantum cognition model, called the belief-action entanglement (BAE) model, predicted that these results could occur. The BAE model employs the quantum principles of superposition and entanglement to explain the psychological mechanisms underlying the puzzling interference effects. The model can be applied to many important and practical categorization-decision situations in life.
This paper assesses the decision making patterns in medical ethics: the formalized pattern of decision science, the meditative pattern of an art of judgement and lastly the still-to-be-elaborated pattern of kairology or sense of the right time. The ethical decision is to be thought out in the conditions of medical action while resorting to the philosophical concepts that shed light on the issue. And it is precisely where medicine and philosophy of human action meet that the Greek notion of kairos, or "propitious moment", evokes the critical point where decision has to do with what is vital. Reflection shows that this kairos can be thought out outside the sacrificial pattern (deciding comes down to killing a possibility) by understanding the opportune moment as a sign of ethical action, as the condition for the formation of the subject (making a decision) and finally as a new relationship to time, including in the context of medical urgency. Thus with an approach to clinical ethics centred on the relation to the individual, the focus is less on the probabilistic knowledge of the decidable than on the meaning of the decision, and the undecidable comes to be accepted as an infinite dimension going beyond the limits of our acts, which makes the contingency and the grandeur of human responsibility.
Lighthall, Geoffrey K.; Vazquez-Guillamet, Cristina
Background Human decision making involves the deliberate formulation of hypotheses and plans as well as the use of subconscious means of judging probability, likely outcome, and proper action. Rationale There is a growing recognition that intuitive strategies such as use of heuristics and pattern recognition described in other industries are applicable to high-acuity environments in medicine. Despite the applicability of theories of cognition to the intensive care unit, a discussion of decision-making strategies is currently absent in the critical care literature. Content This article provides an overview of known cognitive strategies, as well as a synthesis of their use in critical care. By understanding the ways by which humans formulate diagnoses and make critical decisions, we may be able to minimize errors in our own judgments as well as build training activities around known strengths and limitations of cognition. PMID:26387708
Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf
Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to all group-living organisms; we introduce key concepts and principles developed in the context of animal and human group decisions; and we discuss, with appropriate examples, the applicability of each of these concepts in microbial contexts. In particular, we discuss the roles of information pooling, control skew, speed vs. accuracy trade-offs, local feedbacks, quorum thresholds, conflicts of interest, and the reliability of social information. We conclude that collective decision-making in microbes shares many features with collective decision-making in higher taxa, and we call for greater integration between this fledgling field and other allied areas of research, including in the humanities and the physical sciences. PMID:24624121
Gevarter, William B.
Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.
Sheer, D. P.
For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints
Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian
In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.
Zhang, Shaowu; Si, Aung; Pahl, Mario
Honeybees can easily be trained to perform different types of discrimination tasks under controlled laboratory conditions. This review describes a range of experiments carried out with free-flying forager honeybees under such conditions. The research done over the past 30 or so years suggests that cognitive abilities (learning and perception) in insects are more intricate and flexible than was originally imagined. It has become apparent that honeybees are capable of a variety of visually guided tasks, involving decision making under challenging situations: this includes simultaneously making use of different sensory modalities, such as vision and olfaction, and learning to use abstract concepts such as "sameness" and "difference." Many studies have shown that decision making in foraging honeybees is highly flexible. The trained animals learn how to solve a task, and do so with a high accuracy, but when they are presented with a new variation of the task, they apply the learnt rules from the earlier setup to the new situation, and solve the new task as well. Honeybees therefore not only feature a rich behavioral repertoire to choose from, but also make decisions most apt to the current situation. The experiments in this review give an insight into the environmental cues and cognitive resources that are probably highly significant for a forager bee that must continually make decisions regarding patches of resources to be exploited.
Dshemuchadse, Maja; Scherbaum, Stefan; Goschke, Thomas
In intertemporal decision making, individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to an extent that seems irrational from an economical perspective. This behavior has been attributed to a lack of self-control and reflection, the nonlinearity of human time perception, and several other sources.…
Reflective decision making is an important component in a teacher's professional expertise, and aptness for integrating it into professional practice can be nurtured in most teachers. This article uses vignettes from student teachers' journals to describe four modes of thinking that can provide a useful framework for fostering growth in novice and…
Bastons, Miquel; Armengou, Jaume
There is both individual and collective widespread concern in society about the impact of human activity and the effects of our decisions on the physical and social environment. This concern is included within the idea of sustainability. The meaning of the concept is still ambiguous and its practical effectiveness disputed. Like many other authors, this article uses as a starting point the definition proposed by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Our common future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987), considering it to be a proposal for changing the assessment of the effects of decisions, from at least two perspectives: (1) what effects we should consider and (2) how we should assess them. Based on this double perspective, sustainability is explored as a method for decision-making which both expands the assessment of the consequences, and also provides an objective criterion for such assessment. It will be argued that the idea of sustainability, seen from this perspective, brings to decision-making two qualities which had been partially lost: realism and impartiality. In turn, the criteria for realism and impartiality in decision-making can be used to identify the limitations of some partial approaches to sustainability, which suffer from insufficient realism (emotional altruism), insufficient impartiality (tactical altruism) or both phenomena at once (egoism). The article concludes by demonstrating how realism and impartiality provide the basis for a new form of sustainable decision-making (ethical sustainability), which is dependent on the development of two moral virtues, prudence and benevolence, and which brings practical effectiveness and ethical sense to the concept of sustainability.
Faber, B. A.; Harou, J. J.
The Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is participating in a re- operation study of the Mississippi Headwaters reservoir system. The study, termed ROPE (Reservoir Operation Plan Evaluation), will develop a new operation policy for the reservoir system in a Shared Vision Planning effort. The current operating plan is 40 years old and does not account for the diverse objectives of the system altered by increased development and resource awareness. Functions of the six-reservoir system include flood damage reduction, recreation, fish and wildlife habitat considerations, tribal resources, water quality, water supply, erosion and sedimentation control, and hydropower production. Experience has shown that a modeling approach using both optimization, which makes decisions based on their value to objectives, and simulation, which makes decisions that follow operating instructions or rules, is an effective way to improve or develop new operating policies. HEC's role in this study was to develop a multi- objective optimization model of the system using HEC-PRM (Prescriptive Reservoir Model), a generalized computer program that performs multi-period deterministic network-flow optimization of reservoir systems. The optimization model's purpose is to enable stakeholders and decision makers to select appropriate tradeoffs between objectives, and have these tradeoffs reflected in proposed rules. Initial single-objective optimizations allow stakeholders to verify that the penalty functions developed by experts accurately represent their interests. Once penalty functions are confirmed, trade-off curves between pairs of system objectives are developed, and stakeholders and decision makers choose a desired balance between the two objectives. These chosen balance points are maintained in optimizations that consider all objectives. Finally, optimal system decisions are studied to infer operating patterns that embody the chosen tradeoffs. The
Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O
For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.
Prevette, S.S., Westinghouse Hanford, Richland, WA
Performance Measures, and the trend information that results from their analyses, can help managers in their decision making process. The business decisions that are to be discussed are: Assignment of limited Resources, Funding, Budget; Contractor Rewards/Incentives; Where to focus Process Improvement, Reengineering efforts; When to ask ``What Happened?!!``; Determine if a previous decision was effectively implemented. Trending can provide an input for rational Business Decisions. Key Element is determination of whether or not a significant trend exists - segregating Common Cause from Special Cause. The Control Chart is the tool for accomplishment of trending and determining if you are meeting your Business Objectives. Eliminate Numerical Targets; the goal is Significant Improvement. Profound Knowledge requires integrating data results with gut feeling.
With the dissemination of non-invasive human neuroimaging techniques such as fMRI and the advancement of cognitive science, neuroimaging studies focusing on emotions and social cognition have become established. Along with this advancement, behavioral economics taking emotional and social factors into account for economic decisions has been merged with neuroscientific studies, and this interdisciplinary approach is called neuroeconomics. Past neuroeconomics studies have demonstrated that subcortical emotion-related brain structures play an important role in "irrational" decision-making. The research field that investigates the role of central neurotransmitters in this process is worthy of further development. Here, we provide an overview of recent molecular neuroimaging studies to further the understanding of the neurochemical basis of "irrational" or emotional decision-making and the future direction, including clinical implications, of the field.
Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.
People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425
Sumpter, David J.T.; Pratt, Stephen C.
Animal groups are said to make consensus decisions when group members come to agree on the same option. Consensus decisions are taxonomically widespread and potentially offer three key benefits: maintenance of group cohesion, enhancement of decision accuracy compared with lone individuals and improvement in decision speed. In the absence of centralized control, arriving at a consensus depends on local interactions in which each individual's likelihood of choosing an option increases with the number of others already committed to that option. The resulting positive feedback can effectively direct most or all group members to the best available choice. In this paper, we examine the functional form of the individual response to others' behaviour that lies at the heart of this process. We review recent theoretical and empirical work on consensus decisions, and we develop a simple mathematical model to show the central importance to speedy and accurate decisions of quorum responses, in which an animal's probability of exhibiting a behaviour is a sharply nonlinear function of the number of other individuals already performing this behaviour. We argue that systems relying on such quorum rules can achieve cohesive choice of the best option while also permitting adaptive tuning of the trade-off between decision speed and accuracy. PMID:19073480
Placek, Rita; Pearson, Kaye
A program for improving adolescents' decision-making skills to reduce the number of inappropriate behavioral choices related to wellness is described. The targeted population consisted of seventh and tenth grade students in a rural, middle class community. Data from local law enforcement records and school-based program referrals supported…
Purcell, Braden A.; Heitz, Richard P.; Cohen, Jeremiah Y.; Schall, Jeffrey D.; Logan, Gordon D.; Palmeri, Thomas J.
Stochastic accumulator models account for response time in perceptual decision-making tasks by assuming that perceptual evidence accumulates to a threshold. The present investigation mapped the firing rate of frontal eye field (FEF) visual neurons onto perceptual evidence and the firing rate of FEF movement neurons onto evidence accumulation to…
El-Mallakh, Rif; Zinner, Jill; Mackey, Amanda; Tamas, Rebecca L.; Martin, Chanley M.; Dalton, Jerad; Dhaliwal, Nitu; Luddington, Nicole; Numan, Farhad U.; Nunes, Ross; Taylor, Stephen; Ye, Lu
Objective: Several conspiring factors have resulted in an increase in the level of medical burden in psychiatric patients. Psychiatry residents require increasing levels of medical sophistication. To assess the medical decision-making of psychiatry residents, the authors examined the outcome in subjects initially seen in the emergency psychiatric…
Winter, Scott R.
The purpose of this study was to determine if a reflexive learning treatment utilizing select case studies could enhance the decision-making of pilots who encounter an irreversible emergency. Participants, who consisted of members of the subject university's professional pilot program, were divided into either a control or experimental group and…
Franks, Nigel R; Dornhaus, Anna; Fitzsimmons, Jon P; Stevens, Martin
We demonstrate a speed versus accuracy trade-off in collective decision making. House-hunting ant colonies choose a new nest more quickly in harsh conditions than in benign ones and are less discriminating. The errors that occur in a harsh environment are errors of judgement not errors of omission because the colonies have discovered all of the alternative nests before they initiate an emigration. Leptothorax albipennis ants use quorum sensing in their house hunting. They only accept a nest, and begin rapidly recruiting members of their colony, when they find within it a sufficient number of their nest-mates. Here we show that these ants can lower their quorum thresholds between benign and harsh conditions to adjust their speed-accuracy trade-off. Indeed, in harsh conditions these ants rely much more on individual decision making than collective decision making. Our findings show that these ants actively choose to take their time over judgements and employ collective decision making in benign conditions when accuracy is more important than speed. PMID:14667335
Cone, W. Henry
Administrators cannot afford to remain ignorant of the work of neuroscientists over the last 30 years. The findings of brain research can help administrators gain a better understanding of decision making. The author lists four benefits to education that administrators can provide through greater knowledge of the brain. (WD)
Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J.
An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability. PMID:21647306
Evergreen State Coll., Olympia, Washington.
This document presents a description of the process of governance and decisionmaking at Evergreen State University. The system: (1) calls for the continuous flow of information and for the effective keeping of necessary records; (2) provides for getting the work done and for making decisions where the action is; (3) allows for creative policy…
Dunwell, Robert R.
The author examines the traditional, academic, decision-making processes in light of humanistic pressures that have evolved in the past three decades and concludes that these processes must undergo fundamental changes to include those participants who should be enfranchised. (MB)
Due in part to conflicting opinions and research results, the practice of sustained silent reading (SSR) in schools has been questioned. After a frustrating experience with SSR, the author of this article began a data-driven decision-making process to gain new insights on how to structure silent reading in a classroom, including a comparison…
Utility Theory ( MAUT ). iv Multiattribute Methodologies for Decision Making in COEAs Table of Contents 1. Purpose... Multiattribute Utility Theory a. As with AHP the application of MAUT begins with hierarchical decomposition illustrated in Figure 1. The complete demonstration...Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), (4) Multiattribute Value Theory (I4AVT), and (5) Multiattribute Utility Theory ( MAUT ). Each of these techniques
Lusby, Linda A.
This document examines the underlying rationale for the development of a global approach in consumer studies. The concept of consumer ethics is discussed and the consumer decision-making process is placed within an ecosystem perspective of the marketplace. The model developed introduces educators, marketers, and consumers to a more global…
Ashford-Rowe, Kevin H.; Holt, Marnie
The "emerging educational institutional decision-making matrix" is developed to allow educational institutions to adopt a rigorous and consistent methodology of determining which of the myriad of emerging educational technologies will be the most compelling for the institution, particularly ensuring that it is the educational or pedagogical but…
Gies, Joseph C.
A routine-sounding request for a science lab renovation grew into a controversy with immense implications: Is DNA research safe? Does it belong on campus? Is it beyond human capacity to control? The decision-making role of the University of Michigan regents is described. (Editor/LBH)
Reports generalizations about specific patterns emerging from a panel employing a decision-making Delphi process that attempted to forecast the long-range general environment for higher education in Michigan. Participating were 24 influential persons with knowledge of factors important within the state. (Author/RH)
Boney, Jo; Baker, Jacqueline D.
Research and a literature review suggest that nurses lack skills for effective clinical decision making. An educational program that facilitated development of critical thinking focused on four qualities: determining accuracy of information, determining bias, identifying inconsistencies in reasoning, and evaluating the strength of an argument. (SK)
This study considers how ABCS (Army Battle Command System) capabilities achieve information dominance and how they influence the military decision...making process. The work examines how ABCS enables commanders and staffs to achieve information dominance at the brigade and battalion levels. Further...future digitized systems that will gain information dominance for the future commander. It promotes the continued development information dominance technologies
Lapenta, William; Irwin, Dan
SERVIR is a regional visualization and monitoring system for Mesoamerica that integrates satellite and other geospatial data for improved scientific knowledge and decision making by managers, researchers, students, and the general public. SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). This talk will provide an overview of products and services available through SERVIR.
Albert, Dustin; Steinberg, Laurence
In this article, we review the most important findings to have emerged during the past 10 years in the study of judgment and decision making (JDM) in adolescence and look ahead to possible new directions in this burgeoning area of research. Three inter-related shifts in research emphasis are of particular importance and serve to organize this…
An ultrasound demonstration was conducted for participants (~ 110 people) of the Arkansas Cattle Grower’s Conference, Hope, AR. Evaluation of live animals with ultrasound technology allows beef producers the ability to make selection and management decisions. Specifically, ultrasound at the conclu...
AFOSR: 1.8 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF PORTFOLIO Support experimental and computational modeling work in: 1. Understanding cognitive...AREAS IN PORTFOLIO 1. Mathematical and Computational Cognition 2. Robust Decision Making in Human-System Interface 3. Computational and Machine...Interactions with Other Organizations ONR (Paul Bello) • Perception, Metacognition , and Cognitive Control Program ONR (Tom McKenna) • Computational
Kustusch, Mary Bridget; Ptak, Corey; Sayre, Eleanor C.; Franklin, Scott V.
It is increasingly common in physics classes for students to work together to solve problems and perform laboratory experiments. When students work together, they need to negotiate the roles and decision making within the group. We examine how a large group of students negotiates authority as part of their two week summer College Readiness Program at Rochester Institute of Technology. The program is designed to develop metacognitive skills in first generation and Deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) STEM undergraduates through cooperative group work, laboratory experimentation, and explicit reflection exercises. On the first full day of the program, the students collaboratively developed a sign for the word ``metacognition'' for which there is not a sign in American Sign Language. This presentation will focus on three aspects of the ensuing discussion: (1) how the instructor communicated expectations about decision making; (2) how the instructor promoted student-driven decision making rather than instructor-driven policy; and (3) one student's shifts in decision making behavior. We conclude by discussing implications of this research for activity-based physics instruction.
Kenward, Ben; Folke, Sara; Holmberg, Jacob; Johansson, Alexandra; Gredeback, Gustaf
The term "goal directed" conventionally refers to either of 2 separate process types--motor processes organizing action oriented toward physical targets and decision-making processes that select these targets by integrating desire for and knowledge of action outcomes. Even newborns are goal directed in the first sense, but the status of…
van Ravenzwaaij, Don; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
In their influential "Psychological Review" article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the feedforward inhibition model (FFI), can mimic the…
The study investigated the relationship of nature of science (NOS) instruction and students' decision-making (DM) related to a controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. Participants were ninth-grade students in four intact sections (two regulars and two honors) in a public high school in the Midwest. All four groups were…
Cubillo, Jose Maria; Sanchez, Joaquin; Cervino, Julio
Purpose--The purpose of this paper is to propose a theoretical model that integrates the different groups of factors which influence the decision-making process of international students, analysing different dimensions of this process and explaining those factors which determine students' choice. Design/methodology/approach--A hypothetical model…
Being able to make decisions is important for all students. Students need to have opportunities to choose from among alternative situations. Reading, as one curriculum area, provides a plethora of opportunities to choose and to select. The philosopher John Locke believed the following facets of an individual's development were in the ensuing order…
Moore, J. William; And Others
Undergraduates (n=142) participated in study on decision making in which prospective administrators made monetary commitments to long-term goals under varying conditions. Found significant negative correlation between anxiety level and commitments to previously chosen courses of action; no significant effects of job security on commitment; and…
Leet, Don R.; Charkins, R. J.; Lang, Nancy A.; Lopus, Jane S.; Tamaribuchi, Gail
This book highlights and examines basic economic concepts as they relate to consumer, business, social, and personal choices. Students are shown connections between their classroom learning and their real-world experiences in budgeting, career planning, credit management, and housing. The set of 15 lessons include: (1) "Decision Making: Scarcity,…
This paper seeks to investigate the extent of influence of corporate (or organisational) responsibility on university students' career decision-making. It reports on a pilot study conducted at the University of Sydney which aims to: explore students' ethical, professional and social understanding regarding corporate responsibility; determine the…
Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.
Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…
Ten Cate, Olle; Hart, Danielle; Ankel, Felix; Busari, Jamiu; Englander, Robert; Glasgow, Nicholas; Holmboe, Eric; Iobst, William; Lovell, Elise; Snell, Linda S; Touchie, Claire; Van Melle, Elaine; Wycliffe-Jones, Keith
The decision to trust a medical trainee with the critical responsibility to care for a patient is fundamental to clinical training. When carefully and deliberately made, such decisions can serve as significant stimuli for learning and also shape the assessment of trainees. Holding back entrustment decisions too much may hamper the trainee's development toward unsupervised practice. When carelessly made, however, they jeopardize patient safety. Entrustment decision-making processes, therefore, deserve careful analysis.Members (including the authors) of the International Competency-Based Medical Education Collaborative conducted a content analysis of the entrustment decision-making process in health care training during a two-day summit in September 2013 and subsequently reviewed the pertinent literature to arrive at a description of the critical features of this process, which informs this article.The authors discuss theoretical backgrounds and terminology of trust and entrustment in the clinical workplace. The competency-based movement and the introduction of entrustable professional activities force educators to rethink the grounds for assessment in the workplace. Anticipating a decision to grant autonomy at a designated level of supervision appears to align better with health care practice than do most current assessment practices. The authors distinguish different modes of trust and entrustment decisions and elaborate five categories, each with related factors, that determine when decisions to trust trainees are made: the trainee, supervisor, situation, task, and the relationship between trainee and supervisor. The authors' aim in this article is to lay a theoretical foundation for a new approach to workplace training and assessment.
Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)
Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.
van der Lee, J H; Svrcek, W Y; Young, B R
Model Predictive Control is a valuable tool for the process control engineer in a wide variety of applications. Because of this the structure of an MPC can vary dramatically from application to application. There have been a number of works dedicated to MPC tuning for specific cases. Since MPCs can differ significantly, this means that these tuning methods become inapplicable and a trial and error tuning approach must be used. This can be quite time consuming and can result in non-optimum tuning. In an attempt to resolve this, a generalized automated tuning algorithm for MPCs was developed. This approach is numerically based and combines a genetic algorithm with multi-objective fuzzy decision-making. The key advantages to this approach are that genetic algorithms are not problem specific and only need to be adapted to account for the number and ranges of tuning parameters for a given MPC. As well, multi-objective fuzzy decision-making can handle qualitative statements of what optimum control is, in addition to being able to use multiple inputs to determine tuning parameters that best match the desired results. This is particularly useful for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) cases where the definition of "optimum" control is subject to the opinion of the control engineer tuning the system. A case study will be presented in order to illustrate the use of the tuning algorithm. This will include how different definitions of "optimum" control can arise, and how they are accounted for in the multi-objective decision making algorithm. The resulting tuning parameters from each of the definition sets will be compared, and in doing so show that the tuning parameters vary in order to meet each definition of optimum control, thus showing the generalized automated tuning algorithm approach for tuning MPCs is feasible.
Schwikert, Shane R.; Curran, Tim
Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the by-products of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the two heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective pre-experimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical frame work that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PMID:25347534
Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim
Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options.
The study investigated the relationship of nature of science (NOS) instruction and students' decision-making (DM) related to a controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. Participants were ninth-grade students in four intact sections (two regulars and two honors) in a public high school in the Midwest. All four groups were taught by their regular science teacher. The treatment comprised a four-week unit about genetic engineering. Two groups (one regular and one honors), referred to as comparison groups, received instruction in genetic engineering and how to formulate arguments and make decisions related to this controversial issue. The other two groups (one regular and one honors), referred to as treatment groups, received instruction in genetic engineering and how to apply NOS aspects as they formulate arguments and make decisions in relation to this controversial issue. Chi-square analyses showed significant differences between the comparison and the treatment groups in relation to the understandings of four NOS aspects. There were no differences in their decisions, but there were differences in their DM factors in the context of the controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. These results are discussed in light of the relationship between students' understandings of NOS and their DM related to controversial socioscientific issues.
Wemm, Stephanie E; Wulfert, Edelgard
The study examined the effects of a social stressor (Trier Social Stress Test) on 24 male and 32 female college students' affective and physiological reactivity and their subsequent performance on a decision-making task (Iowa Gambling Task). The 56 participants were randomly assigned to a social stressor or a control condition. Compared to controls, participants in the stress condition responded with higher heart rates and skin conductance responses, reported more negative affect, and on the decision-making task made less advantageous choices. An exploratory regression analysis revealed that among men higher levels of heart rate were positively correlated with riskier choices on the Iowa Gambling Task, whereas for women this relationship was curvilinear. Exploratory correlational analyses showed that lower levels of skin conductance within the stress condition were associated with greater levels of substance use and gambling. The results suggest that the presence of a stressor may generally result in failure to attend to the full range of possible consequences of a decision. The relationship pattern between the degree of stress responding and successful decision making may be different for men and women.
Zhang, Long; Wang, Kai; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Chen, Xingui
Previous studies have reported that trait anxiety (TA) affects decision making. However, results remain largely inconsistent across studies. The aim of the current study was to further address the interaction between TA and decision making. 304 subjects without depression from a sample consisting of 642 participants were grouped into high TA (HTA), medium TA (MTA) and low TA (LTA) groups based on their TA scores from State Trait Anxiety Inventory. All subjects were assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) that measures decision making under ambiguity and the Game of Dice Task (GDT) that measures decision making under risk. While the HTA and LTA groups performed worse on the IGT compared to the MTA group, performances on the GDT between the three groups did not differ. Furthermore, the LTA and HTA groups showed different individual deck level preferences in the IGT: the former showed a preference for deck B indicating that these subjects focused more on the magnitude of rewards, and the latter showed a preference for deck A indicating significant decision making impairment. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety has effect on decision making under ambiguity but not decision making under risk and different levels of trait anxiety related differently to individual deck level preferences in the IGT. PMID:26000629
Yukalov, V. I. Sornette, D.
The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this space, form an involutive bijective algebra. A measure is defined for quantifying the entanglement produced by the action of prospect operators. This measure characterizes the level of complexity of prospects involved in decision making. An explicit expression is found for the maximal entanglement produced by the operators of multimode prospects.
Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan; Sibony, Olivier
When an executive makes a big bet, he or she typically relies on the judgment of a team that has put together a proposal for a strategic course of action. After all, the team will have delved into the pros and cons much more deeply than the executive has time to do. The problem is, biases invariably creep into any team's reasoning-and often dangerously distort its thinking. A team that has fallen in love with its recommendation, for instance, may subconsciously dismiss evidence that contradicts its theories, give far too much weight to one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case. That's why, with important decisions, executives need to conduct a careful review not only of the content of recommendations but of the recommendation process. To that end, the authors-Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases; Lovallo of the University of Sydney; and Sibony of McKinsey-have put together a 12-question checklist intended to unearth and neutralize defects in teams' thinking. These questions help leaders examine whether a team has explored alternatives appropriately, gathered all the right information, and used well-grounded numbers to support its case. They also highlight considerations such as whether the team might be unduly influenced by self-interest, overconfidence, or attachment to past decisions. By using this practical tool, executives will build decision processes over time that reduce the effects of biases and upgrade the quality of decisions their organizations make. The payoffs can be significant: A recent McKinsey study of more than 1,000 business investments, for instance, showed that when companies worked to reduce the effects of bias, they raised their returns on investment by seven percentage points. Executives need to realize that the judgment of even highly experienced, superbly competent managers can be fallible. A disciplined decision-making process, not individual genius, is the key to good
Deco, Gustavo; Rolls, Edmund T.
Behavioral, neurophysiological, and theoretical studies are converging to a common theory of decision-making that assumes an underlying diffusion process which integrates both the accumulation of perceptual and cognitive evidence for making the decision and motor choice in one unifying neural network. In particular, neuronal activity in the ventral premotor cortex (VPC) is related to decision-making while trained monkeys compare two mechanical vibrations applied sequentially to the tip of a finger to report which of the two stimuli have the higher frequency (Romo et al. 2004, Neuron 41: 165). In particular, neurons were found whose response depended only on the difference between the two applied frequencies, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We describe an integrate-and-fire attractor model with realistic synaptic dynamics including AMPA, NMDA and GABA synapses which can reproduce the decision-making related response selectivity of VPC neurons during the comparison period of the task. Populations of neurons for each decision in the biased competition attractor receive a bias input that depends on the firing rates of neurons in the VPC that code for the two vibrotactile frequencies. It was found that if the connectivity parameters of the network are tuned, using mean-field techniques, so that the network has two possible stable stationary final attractors respectively related to the two possible decisions, then the firing rate of the neurons in whichever attractor wins reflects the sign of the difference in the frequencies being compared but not the absolute frequencies. Thus Weber's law for frequency comparison is not encoded by the firing rate of the neurons in these attractors. An analysis of the nonstationary evolution of the dynamics of the network model shows that Weber's law is implemented in the probability of transition from the initial spontaneous firing state to one of the two possible attractor states
Polezzi, David; Sartori, Giuseppe; Rumiati, Rino; Vidotto, Giulio; Daum, Irene
Understanding the neurocognitive basis of risk-taking behavior is an important issue, especially in economic decision-making. Classical behavioral studies have shown that risk-attitude changes across different contexts, but little is so far known about the brain correlates of processing of outcomes across such context shifts. In this study, EEG was recorded while subjects performed a gambling task. Participants could choose between a risky and a safer option, within two different contexts: one in which options yielded gains and losses of the same magnitude (Zero Expected Value context) and another in which gains were larger than losses (Positive Expected Value context). Based on their risk-attitude, two groups were compared: subjects who are risk-seekers in the zero Expected Value context (Zero-Oriented group) and subjects who are risk-seekers in the positive Expected Value condition (Positive-Oriented group). The Feedback Related Negativity (FRN) reflects this distinction, with each group being insensitive to magnitude of outcomes in the condition in which they were risk-prone. P300 amplitude mirrored the behavioral results, with larger amplitudes in the condition in which each group showed a higher risk-tendency. Source analyses highlighted the involvement of posterior cingulate cortex in risky decision-making. Taken together, the findings make a contribution to the clarification of the neurocognitive substrates of risky decision-making.
Simons, Pascale; Benders, Jos; Bergs, Jochen; Marneffe, Wim; Vandijck, Dominique
Purpose - Sustainable improvement is likely to be hampered by ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in care processes (the organization's decision-making context). Lean management can improve implementation results because it decreases ambiguity and uncertainties. But does it succeed? Many quality improvement (QI) initiatives are appropriate improvement strategies in organizational contexts characterized by low ambiguity and uncertainty. However, most care settings do not fit this context. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a Lean-inspired change program changed the organization's decision-making context, making it more amenable for QI initiatives. Design/methodology/approach - In 2014, 12 professionals from a Dutch radiotherapy institute were interviewed regarding their perceptions of a Lean program in their organization and the perceived ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in their clinical processes. A survey (25 questions), addressing the same concepts, was conducted among the interviewees in 2011 and 2014. The structured interviews were analyzed using a deductive approach. Quantitative data were analyzed using appropriate statistics. Findings - Interviewees experienced improved shared visions and the number of uncertain cause-effect relations decreased. Overall, more positive (99) than negative Lean effects (18) were expressed. The surveys revealed enhanced process predictability and standardization, and improved shared visions. Practical implications - Lean implementation has shown to lead to greater transparency and increased shared visions. Originality/value - Lean management decreased ambiguous objectives and reduced uncertainties in clinical process cause-effect relations. Therefore, decision making benefitted from Lean increasing QI's sustainability.
Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.
The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.
Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.
This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.
... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Decision-making procedures. 10010.48... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which... in its formal decision-making procedures provisions for consideration of environmental factors...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2013-07-01 2012-07-01 true Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...
... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Decision-making procedures. 10010.48... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which... in its formal decision-making procedures provisions for consideration of environmental factors...
... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Decision-making procedures. 10010.48... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which... in its formal decision-making procedures provisions for consideration of environmental factors...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...
... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Decision-making procedures. 10010.48... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which... in its formal decision-making procedures provisions for consideration of environmental factors...
Schildkamp, Kim, Ed.; Lai, Mei Kuin, Ed.; Earl, Lorna, Ed.
In a context where schools are held more and more accountable for the education they provide, data-based decision making has become increasingly important. This book brings together scholars from several countries to examine data-based decision making. Data-based decision making in this book refers to making decisions based on a broad range of…
Bright, Leslie Shay
The purpose of this study was to describe and determine the prevalence of decision-making characteristics of recreational backcountry groups when making a decision of where to travel and ride in avalanche terrain from the perspective of individuals. Decision-making characteristics encompassed communication, decision-making processes, leadership,…
Campbell, Andrew; Whitehead, Jo; Finkelstein, Sydney
Decision making lies at the heart of our personal and professional lives. Yet the daunting reality is that enormously important decisions made by intelligent, responsible people with the best information and intentions are nevertheless hopelessly flawed at times. In part, that's due to the way our brains work. Modern neuroscience teaches us that two hard-wired processes in the brain--pattern recognition and emotional tagging--are critical to decision making. Both are normally reliable; indeed, they provide us with an evolutionary advantage. But in certain circumstances, either one can trip us up and skew our judgment. In this article, Campbell and Whitehead, directors at the Ashridge Strategic Management Centre, together with Finkelstein, of Dartmouth's Tuck School, describe the conditions that promote errors of judgment and explore how organizations can build safeguards against them into the decision-making process. In their analysis, the authors delineate three "red-flag conditions" that are responsible either for distorting emotional tagging or for encouraging people to see false patterns: conflicts of interest; attachments to people, places, or things; and the presence of misleading memories, which seem, but really are not, relevant and comparable to the current situation. Using a global chemical company as an example, the authors describe the steps leaders can take to counteract those biases: inject fresh experience or analysis, introduce further debate and more challenges to their thinking, and impose stronger governance. Rather than rely on the wisdom of experienced chairmen, the humility of CEOs, or the standard organizational checks and balances, the authors urge, everyone involved in important decisions should explicitly consider whether red flags exist and, if they do, lobby for appropriate safeguards.
Flaming, Susan C.
The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into
Leshno, Moshe; Levy, Haim
Stochastic Dominance (SD) criteria are decision making tools which allow us to choose among various strategies with only partial information on the decision makers' preferences. The notion of Stochastic Dominance has been extensively employed and developed in the area of economics, finance, agriculture, statistics, marketing and operation research since the late 1960s. For example, it may tell us which of two medical treatments with uncertain outcomes is preferred in the absence of full information on the patients' preferences. This paper presents a short review of the SD paradigm and demonstrates how the SD criteria may be employed in medical decision making, using the case of small abdominal aortic aneurysms as an illustration. Thus, for instance by assuming risk aversion one can employ second-degree stochastic dominance to divide the set of all possible treatments into the efficient set, from which the decision makers should always choose, and the inefficient (inferior) set. By employing Prospect Stochastic Dominance (PSD) a similar division can be conducted corresponding to all S-shaped utility functions.
Beck, Jeffrey M.; Ma, Wei Ji; Kiani, Roozbeh; Hanks, Tim; Churchland, Anne K.; Roitman, Jamie; Shadlen, Michael N.; Latham, Peter E.; Pouget, Alexandre
When making a decision, one must first accumulate evidence, often over time, and then select the appropriate action. Here, we present a neural model of decision making that can perform both evidence accumulation and action selection optimally. More specifically, we show that, given a Poisson-like distribution of spike counts, biological neural networks can accumulate evidence without loss of information through linear integration of neural activity, and can select the most likely action through attractor dynamics. This holds for arbitrary correlations, any tuning curves, continuous and discrete variables, and sensory evidence whose reliability varies over time. Our model predicts that the neurons in the lateral intraparietal cortex involved in evidence accumulation encode, on every trial, a probability distribution which predicts the animal’s performance. We present experimental evidence consistent with this prediction, and discuss other predictions applicable to more general settings. PMID:19109917
García-Altés, Anna; Argimon, Josep M
Improving the quality and transparency of governmental healthcare decision-making has an impact on the health of the population through policies, organisational management and clinical practice. Moreover, the comparison between healthcare centres and the transparent feedback of results to professionals and to the wider public contribute directly to improved results. The "Results Centre" of the Catalan healthcare system measures and disseminates the results achieved by the different healthcare centres in order to facilitate a shared decision-making process, thereby enhancing the quality of healthcare provided to the population of Catalonia (Spain). This is a pioneering initiative in Spain and is aligned with the most advanced countries in terms of policies of transparency and accountability.
Leisti, Tuomas; Radun, Jenni; Virtanen, Toni; Nyman, Göte; Häkkinen, Jukka
The verbalization of one's thoughts has been shown to impair judgment and decision making in some cases, particularly when targets are perceptual. This finding has been attributed to the fact that non-verbal processes are sometimes difficult to verbalize, which may cause a shift in processing that is maladaptive to the task. The study shows that concurrent written explanations can also enhance judgment and decision making in certain visual choice tasks. This finding suggests that the effect of verbalization on perceptual tasks is not dependent on whether the targets of the judgment are verbal or perceptual but rather on whether there is adequate vocabulary to execute the task and whether the task benefits from a more analytic approach.
The area of judgment and decision making has given rise to the study of many interesting phenomena, including reasoning fallacies, which are also of interest to behavior analysts. Indeed, techniques and principles of behavior analysis may be applied to study these fallacies. This article reviews research from a behavioral perspective that suggests that humans are not the information-seekers we sometimes suppose ourselves to be. Nor do we utilize information effectively when it is presented. This is shown from the results of research utilizing matching to sample and other behavioral tools (monetary reward, feedback, instructional control) to study phenomena such as the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect, and probability matching. Research from a behavioral perspective can complement research from other perspectives in furthering our understanding of judgment and decision making. PMID:22478308
Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.
793–810. 39. Wagatsuma H, Yamaguchi Y (2007) Neural dynamics of the cognitive map in the hippocampus. Cognitive Neurodynamics 1: 119–141. 40. Kifer Y...Transient Cognitive Dynamics, Metastability, and Decision Making Mikhail I. Rabinovich1*, Ramón Huerta1,2, Pablo Varona2, Valentin S. Afraimovich3 1...Óptica, UASLP, San Luis de Potosı́, Mexico Abstract The idea that cognitive activity can be understood using nonlinear dynamics has been intensively
Banerjee, A.; Jadhav, S. L.; Bhawalkar, J. S.
Few clinicians grasp the true concept of probability expressed in the ‘P value.’ For most, a statistically significant P value is the end of the search for truth. In fact, the opposite is the case. The present paper attempts to put the P value in proper perspective by explaining different types of probabilities, their role in clinical decision making, medical research and hypothesis testing. PMID:21234167
the group process during the experiment and the influence of the MBTI. 7 Subsidiary Research Ouestions and Hypothesis The research objectives were...members’ contributions. Margolis explained how defensive feelings can influence the group members: Feeling defensive, individuals protect themselves and...encouraging diversity and nonconformity during group decision making" (18:449). Another way to guard against groupthink.is to pick someone in the group who will
Nicolis, Grégoire; Nicolis, Stamatios C.
A probabilistic approach to decision-making is developed in which the states of the underlying stochastic process, assumed to be of the Markov type, represent the competing options. The principal parameters determining the dominance of a particular option versus the others are identified and the transduction of information associated to the transitions between states is quantified using a set of entropy-like quantities.
Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."
I have attempted to use Feinstein's model of clinimetric indexes and his criteria as a focus for further development of measures that in physical therapy are currently considered "soft" or "subjective". I feel this development will enhance the body of knowledge by objectifying a portion of clinical assessment (eg, the patient's complaints, "subjective" portion of the POMR's SOAP format) that is in tremendous need of quantification. By making these "soft" data "hard," I feel we will enhance the decision-making power of clinicians.
Walker, Paul; Lovat, Terry
This paper is predicated on the understanding that clinical encounters between clinicians and patients should be seen primarily as inter-relations among persons and, as such, are necessarily moral encounters. It aims to relocate the discussion to be had in challenging medical decision-making situations, including, for example, as the end of life comes into view, onto a more robust moral philosophical footing than is currently commonplace. In our contemporary era, those making moral decisions must be cognizant of the existence of perspectives other than their own, and be attuned to the demands of inter-subjectivity. Applicable to clinical practice, we propose and justify a Habermasian approach as one useful means of achieving what can be described as dialogic consensus. The Habermasian approach builds around, first, his discourse theory of morality as universalizable to all and, second, communicative action as a cooperative search for truth. It is a concrete way to ground the discourse which must be held in complex medical decision-making situations, in its actual reality. Considerations about the theoretical underpinnings of the application of dialogic consensus to clinical practice, and potential difficulties, are explored.
Temel, Veysel; Birol, Sefa Sahan; Nas, Kazim; Akpinar, Selahattin; Tekin, Murat
The aim of the study was to examine the self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles of the teachers in various branches of Çat town of Erzurum Province, Turkey in terms of some variables in 2014-2015 year. A total of 153 teachers (84 females and 69 males) (age (? = 1.6536 ± 0.72837) from different departments participated in the…
Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promote collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in
Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R
Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that--in both the foraging and the casino frames--participants' choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization.
Korn, Christoph W.; Bach, Dominik R.
Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that—in both the foraging and the casino frames—participants’ choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization. PMID:26024504
Wolfe, A.K.; Vogt, D.P.; Hwang, Ho-Ling
Executive Order 12898, signed on February 11, 1994, broadly states that federal activities, programs, and policies should not produce disproportionately high and adverse impacts on minority and low-income populations. Moreover, the Order indicates that these populations should not be denied the benefits of, or excluded from participation in, these activities, programs, and policies. Because a presidential memorandum accompanying the order said that National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents should begin to address environmental justice immediately, much attention has been paid to assessment-related issues. Also important, a topic that appears to have received relatively little attention, is how decision makers should be expected to use information about environmental justice in their decision making. This paper discusses issues surrounding the use of environmental justice information in the decision-making process by focusing on the following five main topics: (1) the importance, or weight, attached to environmental justice within larger decision-making contexts; (2) the potential tension between localized environmental justice issues and regional or national issues and needs; (3) the use of environmental justice information to develop (perhaps in concert with affected minority and low-income communities) appropriate mitigation strategies, or to establish conditions under which activities, programs, and policies may be accepted locally; (4) the general implications of shifting the distribution of broadly defined risks, costs, and benefits among different population groups; and (5) the implications of implementing environmental justice on an individual, ad hoc basis rather than within a larger environmental justice framework. This paper raises the issues and discusses the implications of alternative approaches to them.
Valentini, Gabriele; Fernández-Oto, Cristian; Dorigo, Marco
The engineering of large-scale decentralised systems requires sound methodologies to guarantee the attainment of the desired macroscopic system-level behaviour given the microscopic individual-level implementation. While a general-purpose methodology is currently out of reach, specific solutions can be given to broad classes of problems by means of well-conceived design patterns. We propose a design pattern for collective decision making grounded on experimental/theoretical studies of the nest-site selection behaviour observed in honeybee swarms (Apis mellifera). The way in which honeybee swarms arrive at consensus is fairly well-understood at the macroscopic level. We provide formal guidelines for the microscopic implementation of collective decisions to quantitatively match the macroscopic predictions. We discuss implementation strategies based on both homogeneous and heterogeneous multiagent systems, and we provide means to deal with spatial and topological factors that have a bearing on the micro-macro link. Finally, we exploit the design pattern in two case studies that showcase the viability of the approach. Besides engineering, such a design pattern can prove useful for a deeper understanding of decision making in natural systems thanks to the inclusion of individual heterogeneities and spatial factors, which are often disregarded in theoretical modelling. PMID:26496359
Over the last century there have not been significant changes in the anatomical location of obstruction. The age of presentation has increased along with age related co-morbidity. Management has consequently been challenging as risks keep on increasing with advanced age. Hence, clear decision making has become essential in its management. A selective review of the literature pertaining to common age related aetiologies, diagnosis methods leading to standard decision making and treatment of acute intestinal obstruction was done. The same is obtained from randomized controlled studies, meta-analysis and other related evidence based publications. Predicting the conservative or operative management of Bowel Obstruction (BO) is difficult. BO in young age, in unscarred abdomen and Large Bowel Obstruction (LBO) needs early surgery. Decision on surgery should be taken in paediatric patient by second day and preferably between 3-5 days of admission in adults. Higher American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade correlates well with the mortalities. In this article, the timing of surgery, methods to avoid bowel resection and type of surgery in various causes are stressfully analysed and discussed. PMID:28050445
Dansereau, Donald F.; Knight, Danica K.; Flynn, Patrick M.
Human judgment and decision making (JDM) has substantial room for improvement, especially among adolescents. Increased technological and social complexity “ups the ante” for developing impactful JDM interventions and aids. Current explanatory advances in this field emphasize dual processing models that incorporate both experiential and analytic processing systems. According to these models, judgment and decisions based on the experiential system are rapid and stem from automatic reference to previously stored episodes. Those based on the analytic system are viewed as slower and consciously developed. These models also hypothesize that metacognitive (self-monitoring) activities embedded in the analytic system influence how and when the two systems are used. What is not included in these models is the development of an intersection between the two systems. Because such an intersection is strongly suggested by memory and educational research as the basis of wisdom/expertise, the present paper describes an Integrated Judgment and Decision-Making Model (IJDM) that incorporates this component. Wisdom/expertise is hypothesized to contain a collection of schematic structures that can emerge from the accumulation of similar episodes or repeated analytic practice. As will be argued, in comparisons to dual system models, the addition of this component provides a broader basis for selecting and designing interventions to improve adolescent JDM. Its development also has implications for generally enhancing cognitive interventions by adopting principles from athletic training to create automated, expert behaviors. PMID:24391350
Oud, Bastiaan; Krajbich, Ian; Miller, Kevin; Cheong, Jin Hyun; Botvinick, Matthew; Fehr, Ernst
Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem. PMID:26763695
Dansereau, Donald F; Knight, Danica K; Flynn, Patrick M
Human judgment and decision making (JDM) has substantial room for improvement, especially among adolescents. Increased technological and social complexity "ups the ante" for developing impactful JDM interventions and aids. Current explanatory advances in this field emphasize dual processing models that incorporate both experiential and analytic processing systems. According to these models, judgment and decisions based on the experiential system are rapid and stem from automatic reference to previously stored episodes. Those based on the analytic system are viewed as slower and consciously developed. These models also hypothesize that metacognitive (self-monitoring) activities embedded in the analytic system influence how and when the two systems are used. What is not included in these models is the development of an intersection between the two systems. Because such an intersection is strongly suggested by memory and educational research as the basis of wisdom/expertise, the present paper describes an Integrated Judgment and Decision-Making Model (IJDM) that incorporates this component. Wisdom/expertise is hypothesized to contain a collection of schematic structures that can emerge from the accumulation of similar episodes or repeated analytic practice. As will be argued, in comparisons to dual system models, the addition of this component provides a broader basis for selecting and designing interventions to improve adolescent JDM. Its development also has implications for generally enhancing cognitive interventions by adopting principles from athletic training to create automated, expert behaviors.
García-Retamero, Rocío; Takezawa, Masanori; Gigerenzer, Gerd
In daily life, people frequently make inferences about current and future states of the world. Most of these inferences are not made individually, but by exchanging information about which strategies could be used with other people. In an experiment, we analyzed whether exchanging information socially increased the probability of selecting the most adaptive strategy. In our experiment, take-the-best (TTB; Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 1996), a simple heuristic that employs one-reason decision making, achieved the highest payoff. Results showed that the fit of TTB increased substantially across trial blocks when participants were allowed to exchange information with other group members. In contrast, when participants made inferences individually, they did not select the most adaptive strategy even after seven trial blocks. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that group communication increases the likelihood that participants select the most adaptive strategy for making inferences.
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2013-07-01 2012-07-01 true Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...
Galotti, Kathleen M.; Kozberg, Steven F.; Gustafon, Mary
Typically, adolescence is a time when individuals begin to make consequential, life-framing decisions. However, much of the decision-making literature focuses on high-risk decisions, such as the use of drugs and alcohol, while much less is known about how adolescents make positive decisions, for example, regarding their educational or career…
Rodríguez-Pimentel, Leticia; Silva-Romo, Rodolfo; Wacher-Rodarte, Niels
Management implies decision-making and economics deals with efficiency which means to obtain the best possible results with the available resources, and to compare such results with those that were foreseen. The economic evaluation comprises a set of techniques aimed at comparing resource allocation on alternate courses of action and its consequences. In health care, these results are the overall well-being of the society. This paper summarizes the techniques that are customarily used in economic evaluation, and intends to serve as an introductory text to increasing the ability of the readers to grasp original articles in the field of health economics.
Giuliano, Mark E.; Johnston, Mark D.
Multi-objective algorithms for scheduling offer many advantages over the more conventional single objective approach. By keeping user objectives separate instead of combined, more information is available to the end user to make trade-offs between competing objectives. Unlike single objective algorithms, which produce a single solution, multi-objective algorithms produce a set of solutions, called a Pareto surface, where no solution is strictly dominated by another solution for all objectives. From the end-user perspective a Pareto-surface provides a tool for reasoning about trade-offs between competing objectives. From the perspective of a software developer multi-objective algorithms provide an additional challenge. How can you tell if one multi-objective algorithm is better than another? This paper presents formal and visual tools for evaluating multi-objective algorithms and shows how the developer process of selecting an algorithm parallels the end-user process of selecting a solution for execution out of the Pareto-Surface.
Hartmann, David J; Van Valey, Thomas; Fuqua, Wayne
This paper presents methods and challenges attendant on the use of protocol analysis to develop a model of heuristic processing applied to research ethics. Participants are exposed to ethically complex scenarios and asked to verbalize their thoughts as they formulate a requested decision. The model identifies functional parts of the decision-making task: interpretation, retrieval, judgment and editing and seeks to reliably code participant verbalizations to those tasks as well as to a set of cognitive tools generally useful in such work. Important difficulties in the reliability and external validity of measurement are evaluated and a small set of illustrative data is used in support of that discussion. Results indicate that both intuitive emotional but also more deliberative cognition is present which is consistent with work in related literatures in expertise and in neuropsychology. Finally, the theoretical and practical potential of the approach is elaborated, particularly through links to a framing in Aristotelian ethics.
Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Simes, J.
Climate assessments have become an accepted and commonly used component of long term water management and planning. There is substantial variation in the methods used in these assessments; however, managers and decision-makers have come to value their utility to identify future system limitations, and to evaluate future alternatives to ensure satisfactory system performance. A new set of decision-making frameworks have been proposed, including robust decision making (RDM), and decision scaling, that directly address the deep uncertainties found in both future climate, and non-climatic factors. Promising results have been obtained using these new frameworks, offering a more comprehensive understanding of future conditions leading to failures, and identification of measures to address these failures. Data and resource constraints have limited the use of these frameworks within the Bureau of Reclamation. We present here a modified framework that captures the strengths of previously proposed methods while using a suite of analysis tool that allow for a 'rapid climate assessment' to be performed. A scalable approach has been taken where more complex tools can be used if project resources allow. This 'rapid assessment' is demonstrated through two case studies on the Santa Ana and Colorado Rivers where previous climate assessments have been completed. Planning-level measures are used to compare how decision making is affected when using this new decision making framework.
theme is the work on novice-expert differences in problem-solving, which goes back to deGroot . 1I As Newell2 notes, decision-making is a form of problem...26 REFERENCES (Cont’d) 11. A.D. deGroot , Thought and Choice in Chess, Mouton, The Hague, Nether- lands, 1965. 12. A. Newell, "Reasoning, Problem...Gentner and A.L. Stevens (eds.), Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, 1983. 26. W.B. Rouse and N.M. Morris , "On Looking into the Black Box: Prospects and Limits in
He, Hongmei; McGinnity, Thomas Martin; Coleman, Sonya; Gardiner, Bryan
Machine learning enables the creation of a nonlinear mapping that describes robot-environment interaction, whereas computing linguistics make the interaction transparent. In this paper, we develop a novel application of a linguistic decision tree for a robot route learning problem by dynamically deciding the robot's behavior, which is decomposed into atomic actions in the context of a specified task. We examine the real-time performance of training and control of a linguistic decision tree, and explore the possibility of training a machine learning model in an adaptive system without dual CPUs for parallelization of training and control. A quantified evaluation approach is proposed, and a score is defined for the evaluation of a model's robustness regarding the quality of training data. Compared with the nonlinear system identification nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with eXogeneous inputs model structure with offline parameter estimation, the linguistic decision tree model with online linguistic ID3 learning achieves much better performance, robustness, and reliability.
van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A. David
Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a “forward” mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders. PMID:22492194
For many years, economic development has mean industrial recruitment where business-at-any-cost was preached by a small elite, where civic discord replaced civic discussion, where families made more money but had less to spend, where residents learned to lock their doors, where communities changed from the unique to commonplace and a thousand towns looked alike. But now, scores of communities are saying no to old, worn-out approaches to development and embracing a new kind of development that respects the community and the environment. Created collaboratively by people from all walks of community life, this new approach is called sustainable community economic development. Though new, sustainable development is based on traditional values of stewardship and working together. Its principles are powerful in their simplicity. Its lessons enrich community decision making. This paper describes these principles and lessons. It introduces a community decision-making process that applies them and suggests the kinds of results you can expect from such a process in your town.
Shad, Mujeeb U; Bidesi, Anup S; Chen, Li-Ann; Thomas, Binu P; Ernst, Monique; Rao, Uma
The study examined the relationship between risk-taking behavior during selection of monetary rewards and activations in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), brain regions that are associated with decision-making. Thirty-three adolescents with no personal or family history of any psychiatric illness were administered the Wheel of Fortune (WOF) task using a functional magnetic resonance imaging protocol. The WOF is a computerized two-choice, probabilistic monetary reward task. Selection of a reward, particularly a low-probability/high-magnitude reward choice, induced greater activations in dorsal ACC, ventrolateral OFC and mPFC than the control condition. Although similar findings have been reported by earlier studies, the results from this study were not impacted by reaction times and expected values and persisted even after controlling for sociodemographic factors. Post hoc analysis revealed greater activation of ACC and mPFC in response to selection of rewards of larger magnitude than those of smaller magnitude when the probability of reward was maintained constant. Adolescents with greater frequency of high-risk behavior (defined as low-probability/high-magnitude reward choice) had lower activation of ACC, OFC and mPFC than those who engaged in this behavior less frequently. These findings suggest individual differences in prefrontal cortical function with regards to decision-making process in adolescents.
Keller, James M.; Yan, Bolin
The fuzzy integral has been shown to be an effective tool for the aggregation of evidence in decision making. Of primary importance in the development of a fuzzy integral pattern recognition algorithm is the choice (construction) of the measure which embodies the importance of subsets of sources of evidence. Sugeno fuzzy measures have received the most attention due to the recursive nature of the fabrication of the measure on nested sequences of subsets. Possibility measures exhibit an even simpler generation capability, but usually require that one of the sources of information possess complete credibility. In real applications, such normalization may not be possible, or even desirable. In this report, both the theory and a decision making algorithm for a variation of the fuzzy integral are presented. This integral is based on a possibility measure where it is not required that the measure of the universe be unity. A training algorithm for the possibility densities in a pattern recognition application is also presented with the results demonstrated on the shuttle-earth-space training and testing images.
Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji
Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.
Lindsen, Job P; Jones, Rhiannon; Shimojo, Shinsuke; Bhattacharya, Joydeep
The objectives of the current study were twofold: (i) to investigate the neural precursors of the formation of a subjective preference of facial stimuli, and (ii) to characterize the spatiotemporal brain activity patterns distinguishing between preferred and non-preferred faces. Multivariate EEG signals were recorded while participants made preference decisions, based on approachability, between two faces presented sequentially with unrestricted viewing time; the decision being made after presentation of the second face. The paired faces were similar in their physical properties, emphasizing the role of the subjective experience of the participants in making the decisions. EEG signals were analyzed in terms of event-related-potential (ERP) components and wavelet-based time-frequency-representations (TFR). The behavioural data showed that the presentation order and the exposure duration did not influence preference formation. The EEG data showed three effects. The earliest effect, the sustained posterior ERP positivity for preferred first faces as compared to non-preferred first faces, was found following the onset of the first face, and this was interpreted as the formation of a positive first impression of the first face. The two later effects following the second faces were an increase of frontal theta band oscillations around 500 ms for preferred second faces and of posterior gamma band oscillations around 650 ms for preferred first faces; both of which were interpreted as being related to the formation of a preference. All of these effects occurred well before the moment of conscious decision, thereby suggesting the implicitness of these neurally identifiable components.
Iqbal, Muhammad; Naeem, Muhammad; Anpalagan, Alagan; Ahmed, Ashfaq; Azam, Muhammad
Optimization problems relating to wireless sensor network planning, design, deployment and operation often give rise to multi-objective optimization formulations where multiple desirable objectives compete with each other and the decision maker has to select one of the tradeoff solutions. These multiple objectives may or may not conflict with each other. Keeping in view the nature of the application, the sensing scenario and input/output of the problem, the type of optimization problem changes. To address different nature of optimization problems relating to wireless sensor network design, deployment, operation, planing and placement, there exist a plethora of optimization solution types. We review and analyze different desirable objectives to show whether they conflict with each other, support each other or they are design dependent. We also present a generic multi-objective optimization problem relating to wireless sensor network which consists of input variables, required output, objectives and constraints. A list of constraints is also presented to give an overview of different constraints which are considered while formulating the optimization problems in wireless sensor networks. Keeping in view the multi facet coverage of this article relating to multi-objective optimization, this will open up new avenues of research in the area of multi-objective optimization relating to wireless sensor networks. PMID:26205271
Iqbal, Muhammad; Naeem, Muhammad; Anpalagan, Alagan; Ahmed, Ashfaq; Azam, Muhammad
Optimization problems relating to wireless sensor network planning, design, deployment and operation often give rise to multi-objective optimization formulations where multiple desirable objectives compete with each other and the decision maker has to select one of the tradeoff solutions. These multiple objectives may or may not conflict with each other. Keeping in view the nature of the application, the sensing scenario and input/output of the problem, the type of optimization problem changes. To address different nature of optimization problems relating to wireless sensor network design, deployment, operation, planing and placement, there exist a plethora of optimization solution types. We review and analyze different desirable objectives to show whether they conflict with each other, support each other or they are design dependent. We also present a generic multi-objective optimization problem relating to wireless sensor network which consists of input variables, required output, objectives and constraints. A list of constraints is also presented to give an overview of different constraints which are considered while formulating the optimization problems in wireless sensor networks. Keeping in view the multi facet coverage of this article relating to multi-objective optimization, this will open up new avenues of research in the area of multi-objective optimization relating to wireless sensor networks.
Osipow, Samuel H.; Reed, Robin
To examine the process of career indecision, 203 college stuents were given the Career Decision Scale, and the Johnson Decision Making Inventory. Results indicate that one of the Johnson types is associated with a higher degree of career indecision. Spontaneous external decision making types scored highest on the Career Decision Scale, followed by…
Evers, Colin W.
Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…
Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori
A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.
Bjornstad, David J.; Wolfe, Amy K.
Framing remediation decision making as negotiation: (1) social choice, not technology choice; (2) prompts decision makers to identify interested and affected parties, anticipate objections, effectively address and ameliorate objections, and avoid unacceptable decisions.
Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted.
Mau, Wei-Cheng J.
This study investigated cultural dimensions of career decision-making difficulties using the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire. Career decision-making difficulties were compared among White, African, Hispanic, and Asian American high school and university students at U.S. schools. Results indicated Asian American students perceived…
Suchman, J. Richard; DiSario, Martha R.
An instructional system is presented for building the competencies of adult basic education students in making consumer decisions, and offers a guide to teachers who wish to design their own decision-making problems for students. The first four chapters provide a brief introduction, discuss the rational consumer decision-making process and the…
Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.
The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…
Kampmann, Jennifer A.
Within the scope of leadership and management, decision making greatly defines the role of university administrator, in particular, the university department head and his/her ability to be a reflective practitioner in the realm of decision making. Decision making is one characteristic of university department head work which warrants close…
James, Constance R.; Smith, J. Goosby
This article presents a classroom ethical decision-making exercise designed to help students make reasoned ethical decisions while gaining insight into their own and others' ethical decision-making strategies. During the exercise, students individually analyze an original mini-case, then meet in small groups to reach consensus on the advice and…
Outdoor leaders function in naturalistic decision-making contexts and may be influenced by personal, social, and environmental factors in making critical decisions in the field. The experience level of the outdoor instructor is posited as a critical variable in the development of his/her decision-making and overall judgment. This research measures…
... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major... Corporation's decision making process to ensure adequate consideration of environmental factors. (b)...
Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Lu, Mingyang; Schultz, Daniel; Onuchic, Jose' N.
The choice that bacteria make between sporulation and competence when subjected to stress provides a prototypical example of collective cell fate determination that is stochastic on the individual cell level, yet predictable (deterministic) on the population level. This collective decision is performed by an elaborated gene network. Considerable effort has been devoted to simplify its complexity by taking physics approaches to untangle the basic functional modules that are integrated to form the complete network: (1) A stochastic switch whose transition probability is controlled by two order parameters—population density and internal/external stress. (2) An adaptable timer whose clock rate is normalized by the same two previous order parameters. (3) Sensing units which measure population density and external stress. (4) A communication module that exchanges information about the cells' internal stress levels. (5) An oscillating gate of the stochastic switch which is regulated by the timer. The unique circuit architecture of the gate allows special dynamics and noise management features. The gate opens a window of opportunity in time for competence transitions, during which the circuit generates oscillations that are translated into a chain of short intervals with high transition probability. In addition, the unique architecture of the gate allows filtering of external noise and robustness against variations in circuit parameters and internal noise. We illustrate that a physics approach can be very valuable in investigating the decision process and in identifying its general principles. We also show that both cell-cell variability and noise have important functional roles in the collectively controlled individual decisions. PMID:25401094
Osbourn, Gordon Cecil
The brain is often identified with decision-making processes in the biological world. In fact, single cells, single macromolecules (proteins) and populations of molecules also make simple decisions. These decision processes are essential to survival and to the biological self-assembly and self-repair processes that we seek to emulate. How do these tiny systems make effective decisions? How do they make decisions in concert with a cooperative network of other molecules or cells? How can we emulate the decision-making behaviors of small-scale biological systems to program and self-assemble microsystems? This LDRD supported research to answer these questions. Our work included modeling and simulation of protein populations to help us understand, mimic, and categorize molecular decision-making mechanisms that nonequilibrium systems can exhibit. This work is an early step towards mimicking such nanoscale and microscale biomolecular decision-making processes in inorganic systems.
N'Guyen, Steve; Moulin-Frier, Clément; Droulez, Jacques
We propose a new approach for solving a class of discrete decision making problems under uncertainty with positive cost. This issue concerns multiple and diverse fields such as engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, cognitive science and many others. Basically, an agent has to choose a single or series of actions from a set of options, without knowing for sure their consequences. Schematically, two main approaches have been followed: either the agent learns which option is the correct one to choose in a given situation by trial and error, or the agent already has some knowledge on the possible consequences of his decisions; this knowledge being generally expressed as a conditional probability distribution. In the latter case, several optimal or suboptimal methods have been proposed to exploit this uncertain knowledge in various contexts. In this work, we propose following a different approach, based on the geometric intuition of distance. More precisely, we define a goal independent quasimetric structure on the state space, taking into account both cost function and transition probability. We then compare precision and computation time with classical approaches. PMID:24376697
Salek, M. Mehdi; Guasto, Jeffrey S.; Stocker, Roman
Swimming cells are often guided by chemical gradients (``chemotaxis'') to search for nutrients, hosts, and mates, and to avoid predators and noxious substances. It remains unclear, however, how variable the chemotactic abilities of cells are among cells of one species, and whether there are better ``decision makers'' within a population. Inspired by studies in macro-organism ecology, we fabricated a microfluidic ``T-maze'' in which marine bacteria are subjected to a chemical attractant gradient at each of a series of consecutive T-junctions. We used video microscopy to capture the motion of thousands of bacteria as they migrate up or down the gradient at each subsequent junction. This approach provides detailed statistics at both the single-cell and population levels, while simultaneously sorting the cells by chemotactic ability. Using a range of bacteria, we demonstrate how the microfluidic T-maze allows us to sort the better decision-making cells in the population, opening the door for improved efficiency of a range of microbial processes in nature and industry.
Bhattacharya, K.; Vicsek, Tamás
Most of us must have been fascinated by the eye-catching displays of collectively moving animals. Schools of fish can move in a rather orderly fashion and then change direction amazingly abruptly. There are a large number of further examples both from the living and the non-living world for phenomena during which the many interacting, permanently moving units seem to arrive at a common behavioural pattern taking place in a short time. As a paradigm of this type of phenomena we consider the problem of how birds arrive at a decision resulting in their synchronized landing. We introduce a simple model to interpret this process. Collective motion prior to landing is modelled using a simple self-propelled particle (SPP) system with a new kind of boundary condition, while the tendency and the sudden propagation of the intention of landing are introduced through rules analogous to the random field Ising model in an external field. We show that our approach is capable of capturing the most relevant features of collective decision making in a system of units with variance of individual intentions and being under an increasing level of pressure to switch states. We find that as a function of the few parameters of our model the collective switching from the flying to the landing state is indeed much sharper than the distribution of individual landing intentions. The transition is accompanied by a number of interesting features discussed in this paper.
Wang, Ping; Wu, Guangqiang
Typical multidisciplinary design optimization(MDO) has gradually been proposed to balance performances of lightweight, noise, vibration and harshness(NVH) and safety for instrument panel(IP) structure in the automotive development. Nevertheless, plastic constitutive relation of Polypropylene(PP) under different strain rates, has not been taken into consideration in current reliability-based and collaborative IP MDO design. In this paper, based on tensile test under different strain rates, the constitutive relation of Polypropylene material is studied. Impact simulation tests for head and knee bolster are carried out to meet the regulation of FMVSS 201 and FMVSS 208, respectively. NVH analysis is performed to obtain mainly the natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes, while the crashworthiness analysis is employed to examine the crash behavior of IP structure. With the consideration of lightweight, NVH, head and knee bolster impact performance, design of experiment(DOE), response surface model(RSM), and collaborative optimization(CO) are applied to realize the determined and reliability-based optimizations, respectively. Furthermore, based on multi-objective genetic algorithm(MOGA), the optimal Pareto sets are completed to solve the multi-objective optimization(MOO) problem. The proposed research ensures the smoothness of Pareto set, enhances the ability of engineers to make a comprehensive decision about multi-objectives and choose the optimal design, and improves the quality and efficiency of MDO.
Warren, Jamie B; Wiggins, Nikki
Since the Institute of Medicine published Crossing the Quality Chasm in 2001, healthcare systems have become more focused on improving the quality of healthcare delivery. At Oregon Health & Science University and Doernbecher Children's Hospital, we recognize the need to take an interprofessional, team-based approach to improving the care we provide to our current and future patients. We describe here an ongoing quality improvement project in the Doernbecher Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU), with specific attention to the factors we believe have contributed to the implementation and early success of the project. These factors include the history of quality improvement work in our NICU and in the field of neonatology, the "dyad leadership" structure under which we operate in our NICU, and our developing understanding of the concept of "team intelligence." These elements have led to the formation of a team that can practice shared decision making and work as one to realize a shared goal.
Gettings, M. E.
Combining information of disparate types from multiple data or model sources is a fundamental task in decision making theory. Procedures for combining and utilizing quantitative data with uncertainties are well-developed in several approaches, but methods for including qualitative and semi-quantitative data are much less so. Possibility theory offers an approach to treating all three data types in an objective and repeatable way. In decision making, biases are frequently present in several forms, including those arising from data quality, data spatial and temporal distribution, and the analyst's knowledge and beliefs as to which data or models are most important. The latter bias is particularly evident in the case of qualitative data and there are numerous examples of analysts feeling that a qualitative dataset is more relevant than a quantified one. Possibility theory and fuzzy logic now provide fairly general rules for quantifying qualitative and semi-quantitative data in ways that are repeatable and minimally biased. Once a set of quantified data and/or model layers is obtained, there are several methods of combining them to obtain insight useful in decision making. These include: various combinations of layers using formal fuzzy logic (for example, layer A and (layer B or layer C) but not layer D); connecting the layers with varying influence links in a Fuzzy Cognitive Map; and using the set of layers for the universe of discourse for agent based model simulations. One example of logical combinations that have proven useful is the definition of possible habitat for valley fever fungus (Coccidioides sp.) using variables such as soil type, altitude, aspect, moisture and temperature. A second example is the delineation of the lithology and possible mineralization of several areas beneath basin fill in southern Arizona. A Fuzzy Cognitive Map example is the impacts of development and operation of a hypothetical mine in an area adjacent to a city. In this model
Purcell, Braden A.; Heitz, Richard P.; Cohen, Jeremiah Y.; Schall, Jeffrey D.; Logan, Gordon D.; Palmeri, Thomas J.
Stochastic accumulator models account for response time in perceptual decision-making tasks by assuming that perceptual evidence accumulates to a threshold. The present investigation mapped the firing rate of frontal eye field (FEF) visual neurons onto perceptual evidence and the firing rate of FEF movement neurons onto evidence accumulation to test alternative models of how evidence is combined in the accumulation process. The models were evaluated on their ability to predict both response time distributions and movement neuron activity observed in monkeys performing a visual search task. Models that assume gating of perceptual evidence to the accumulating units provide the best account of both behavioral and neural data. These results identify discrete stages of processing with anatomically distinct neural populations and rule out several alternative architectures. The results also illustrate the use of neurophysiological data as a model selection tool and establish a novel framework to bridge computational and neural levels of explanation. PMID:20822291
Sörensen, Silvia; Mak, Wingyun; Pinquart, Martin
The need to plan for future health care and residential adjustments increases with age, growing frailty, and restrictions in coverage of long-term care and will continue to grow with population aging. Older adults’ lack of financial preparation for health care costs, insufficient knowledge about available options, and inadequate communication about care-related values has become an increasing public health challenge. This chapter describes a model of Preparation for Future Care (PFC), which encompasses different levels and domains of planning. Research about the extent to which planning is helpful in navigating care transitions is reviewed, and barriers and facilitators of planning including individual, familial, cultural, and national long-term care policy factors are discussed. Planning in the context of dementia and practical approaches that can be taken to enhance PFC is addressed, as well as recommendations for future research in the area of planning and decision making in the context of care transitions. PMID:26207079
Bogdan-Lovis, Elizabeth Libby; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret
In its brief tenure evidence-based medicine (EBM) has proven to be a powerful magnet for criticism, while at the same time it has demonstrated impressive resilience. Located within the ongoing critical discourse surrounding the strengths and weaknesses of an EBM approach is the persistent question of the proper place of the social sciences relative to other disciplinary perspectives. This article considers one way the social sciences might usefully illuminate EBM-mediated human interactions to influence policy. We focus on the ethical nexus of the human impulse for unlimited consumption of health care resources in those situations where there exist competing clinical management options and suggest strategies for resource-preserving shared decision making. We conclude that a frugal default option is a fruitful avenue for future exploration in such situations.
Kelly, Rosemary R.; Hatcher, Tim
This study explored differences between career decision-making self-efficacy (CDMSE) and career barriers of students enrolled in applied technology programs compared to those enrolled in college transfer. Participants in the ex post facto cross-sectional survey included 787 students at a community college. The following research questions were…
Vetter, Donald P.; And Others
This unit on economic decision-making is the fourth of five units in a ninth grade social studies course (see SO 010 891). Major objectives are to help students (1) explain how dissent and protest may be used as effective means of change and to consider the consequences of such actions; (2) examine the judicial branch of government in order to…
Rodriquez, Luis F.; Drysdale, Alan E.; Jones, Harry; Levri, Julie A.
The Advanced Life Support (ALS) Metric is the predominant tool for predicting the cost of ALS systems. Metric goals for the ALS Program are daunting, requiring a threefold increase in the ALS Metric by 2010. Confounding the problem, the rate new ALS technologies reach the maturity required for consideration in the ALS Metric and the rate at which new configurations are developed is slow, limiting the search space and potentially giving the perspective of a ALS technology, the ALS Metric may remain elusive. This paper is a sequel to a paper published in the proceedings of the 2003 ICES conference entitled, "Managing to the metric: an approach to optimizing life support costs." The conclusions of that paper state that the largest contributors to the ALS Metric should be targeted by ALS researchers and management for maximum metric reductions. Certainly, these areas potentially offer large potential benefits to future ALS missions; however, the ALS Metric is not the only decision-making tool available to the community. To facilitate decision-making within the ALS community a combination of metrics should be utilized, such as the Equivalent System Mass (ESM)-based ALS metric, but also those available through techniques such as life cycle costing and faithful consideration of the sensitivity of the assumed models and data. Often a lack of data is cited as the reason why these techniques are not considered for utilization. An existing database development effort within the ALS community, known as OPIS, may provide the opportunity to collect the necessary information to enable the proposed systems analyses. A review of these additional analysis techniques is provided, focusing on the data necessary to enable these. The discussion is concluded by proposing how the data may be utilized by analysts in the future.
Pope, Thaddeus Mason; Hexum, Melinda
This "Legal Briefing" column covers recent legal developments involving patient decision aids.This topic has been the subject of recent articles in JCE. It is included in the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. And it has received significant attention in the biomedical literature, including a new book, a thematic issue of Health Affairs, and a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine. Moreover, physicians and health systems across the United States are increasingly integrating decision aids into their clinical practice. Both federal and state laws play a significant role in promoting this expanded use. On the other hand, concerns about liability could stymie development and implementation. We categorize legal developments concerning patient decision aids into the following five sections: 1. Development of decision aids. 2. Effectiveness of decision aids. 3. Federal regulation of decision aids. 4. State regulation of decision aids. 5. Legal concerns regarding decision aids.
Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans
This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.
Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Celik, D. Billur
Problem Statement: Decision making is a critical cognitive process in every area of human life. In this process, the individuals play an active role and obtain outputs with their functional use of decision-making skills. Therefore, the decision-making process can affect the course of life, life satisfaction, and the social relations of an…
Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley
Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives. PMID:27069380
Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley
Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives.
Byra, Mark; Jenkins, Jayne
In the inclusion style of teaching, learners must make decisions about level of task difficulty. They must decide at which level to enter the presented task and then, for additional sets of trials, decide whether to perform the task the same way, make it more difficult, or make it less difficult. This study examined learner decision making in a…
Jansen, Brenda R. J.; van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C. K.; Huizenga, Hilde M.
Decisions can be made by applying a variety of decision-making rules--sequential rules in which decisions are based on a sequential evaluation of choice dimensions and the integrative normative rule in which decisions are based on an integration of choice dimensions. In this study, we investigated the developmental trajectory of such…
Bright, Jim E. H.; Pryor, Robert G. L.; Harpham, Lucy
Two studies are reported that investigate the role of chance events as influences in career decision making. In study one, the results of a large-scale survey of high-school and university students (N=772) investigating influences on their career decision making are presented. Chance events were reported as influencing the career decisions of…
Hoy, Wayne K.; Tarter, C. J.
Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine the research literature on decision making and identify and develop a set of heuristics that work for school decision makers. Design/methodology/approach: This analysis is a synthesis of the research on decision-making heuristics that work. Findings: A set of nine rules for swift and smart decision…
Nelson, Gary D.
Although the development of rational decision making skills among school age populations has been identified as a goal of school health education programs, few measurement tools or methods exist to assess such skills. In order to develop an instrument for assessing adolescent health decision-making skills, a preliminary health decision making…
Gati, Itamar; Saka, Noa
Examines the construct of career-related decision-making difficulties among 1,843 Israeli adolescents. Three versions of the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) were constructed to match three decision situations. The structures of the revised CDDQ were found similar to that proposed by I. Gati et al. (1996). Boys reported…
Kang, Sunghyun; Seo, Jiwan; Choi, Seungjin; Kim, Junho; Han, Sangyong
As the Internet technology and social media advance, various information and opinions are shared and distributed through the online communities. However, the existence of implicit and explicit bias of opinions may have a potential influence on the outcomes. Compared to the importance of mitigating biased information, the study in this field is relatively young and does not address many important issues. In this paper we propose the noble approach to mitigate the biased opinions using conventional machine learning methods. The proposed method extracts the useful features such as inclination and sentiment of the community members. They are classified based on their previous behavior, and the propensity of the members is understood. This information on each community and its members is very useful and improve the ability to make an unbiased decision. The proposed method presented in this paper is shown to have the ability to assist optimal, fair and good decision making while also reducing the influence of implicit bias.
Bain, Gregory Ian; McGuire, Duncan Thomas
Limited wrist fusions are effective surgical procedures for providing pain relief while preserving motion of the wrist in patients with localized arthritis of the carpus. In deciding which motion-preserving procedure to perform, the etiology of the arthritis, which joints are involved, and which are spared should be determined. The main principle is to fuse the involved joints and to allow motion through the uninvolved joints. In this article, we discuss the various traumatic and nontraumatic conditions causing arthritis of the wrist and the treatment options for those conditions. Common indications for limited wrist fusions include scapholunate advanced collapse and scaphoid nonunion advanced collapse. Options for treating these conditions include three- and four-corner fusions as well as a proximal row carpectomy. This paper discusses which procedures are the most appropriate as well as the outcomes of these procedures. If the basic principles of limited wrist fusions are adhered to, a good outcome can be obtained. The authors' surgical technique and decision-making processes are discussed. PMID:24179713
Mason, Keith J.
This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.
Crapse, Trinity B; Basso, Michele A
A long-standing question in systems neuroscience is how the activity of single neurons gives rise to our perceptions and actions. Critical insights into this question occurred in the last part of the 20th century when scientists began linking modulations of neuronal activity directly to perceptual behavior. A significant conceptual advance was the application of signal detection theory to both neuronal activity and behavior, providing a quantitative assessment of the relationship between brain and behavior. One metric that emerged from these efforts was choice probability (CP), which provides information about how well an ideal observer can predict the choice an animal makes from a neuron's discharge rate distribution. In this review, we describe where CP has been studied, locational trends in the values found, and why CP values are typically so low. We discuss its dependence on correlated activity among neurons of a population, assess whether it arises from feedforward or feedback mechanisms, and investigate what CP tells us about how many neurons are required for a decision and how they are pooled to do so.
This paper is a reflection on the representation of nurses and their practice at a global level. In considering the International Council of Nurses (ICN) conference in Malta (2011), it is clear that certain assumptions have been made about nurses and their practice which assume that globalization is under way for the whole of the profession and that the assumptions can be applied equally around the world. These assumptions appear in many ways to be implicit rather than explicit. The implicitness of the assumptions is examined against the particular decision-making processes adopted by the ICN. An attempt is then made to identify another base for the ongoing global work of the ICN. This involves the exploration of taboo (that which is forbidden because it is either holy or unclean) as a way of examining why nursing is not properly valued, despite years of international representation. The paper concludes with some thoughts on how such a new approach interfaces with the possibilities held out by new information technologies.
I contrast Robert Veatch's recent liberal vision of medical decision-making with a more rationalist liberal model. According to Veatch, physicians are biased in their determination of what is in their patient's overall interests in favour of their medical interests. Because of the extent of this bias, we should abandon the practice of physicians offering what they guess to be the best treatment option. Patients should buddy up with physicians who share the same values -- 'deep value pairing'. The goal of choice is maximal promotion of patient values. I argue that if subjectivism about value and valuing is true, this move is plausible. However, if objectivism about value is true -- that there really are states which are good for people regardless of whether they desire to be in them -- then we should accept a more rationalist liberal alternative. According to this alternative, what is required to decide which course is best is rational dialogue between physicians and patients, both about the patient's circumstances and her values, and not the seeking out of people, physicians or others, who share the same values. Rational discussion requires that physicians be reasonable and empathic. I describe one possible account of a reasonable physician.
EBSCOhost ), EBSCOhost (accessed April 25, 2013), 10. 5 Army Doctrine Publication 5-0, The Operations Process, Headquarters, Department of the Army, May...and Giroux, 2011. Klein, Gary A. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1999. eBook Collection ( EBSCOhost ... EBSCOhost . Accessed April 25, 2013. Owens, Bill. Lifting the Fog of War. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000. 20 Ross, Karol G
Landmesser, John Andrew
Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…
Ashmos, D P; McDaniel, R R
An exploratory study examined variation in the participation of physicians in hospital strategic decision making as a function of (1) strategic decision content or (2) hospital strategy, or both. The findings revealed that who participates is a function of decision content while how physicians participate is a function of decision content and the interaction of decision content and hospital strategy. PMID:1869445
Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.
A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.
Examines decision making in educational organizations, focusing on problems associated with identifying and labeling issues. Factors influencing labeling include decision maker characteristics such as filtering ability, aspiration level, capabilities and experience, stress, "satisficing" proclivity, anchoring and adjustment, selective…
General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.
Nygren, Thomas E.
Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior.
... environmental document (i.e., the EA, finding of no significant impact, EIS, or notice of intent), in addition... environmental factors. (b) The Trust shall consider in its decision-making process only decision...
Weaver, J. W.; Small, M. C.
Methyl-tert butyl ether (MTBE) has been used as a gasoline additive to serve two major purposes. The first use was as an octane-enhancer to replace organic lead, beginning in 1979. The second use, which began about 1992, was as a oxygenated additive to meet requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990. Generally, the amount of MTBE used for octane enhancement was lower than that required to meet CAAA requirements. An unintended consequence of MTBE use has been widespread groundwater contamination. The decision to use certain amounts of MTBE or other chemcials as gasoline additives is the outcome of economic, regulatory, policy, political, and scientific considerations. Decision makers ask questions such as "How do ground water impacts change with changing MTBE content? How many wells would be impacted? and What are the associated costs?" These are best answered through scientific inquiry, but many different approaches could be developed. Decision criteria include time, money, comprehensiveness, and complexity of the approach. Because results must be communicated to a non-technical audience, there is a trade off between the complexity of the approach and the ability to convince economists, lawyers and policy makers that results make sense. The question on MTBE content posed above was investigated using transport models, a release scenario and gasoline composition. Because of the inability of transport models to predict future concentrations, an approach was chosen to base comparative assessment on a calibrated model. By taking this approach, "generic" modeling with arbitrarily selected parameters was avoided and the validity of the simulation results rests upon relatively small extrapolations from the original calibrated models. A set of simulations was performed that assumed 3% (octane enhancement) and 11% (CAAA) MTBE in gasoline. The results were that ground water concentrations would be reduced in proportion to the reduction of MTBE in the fuel
Problems can be subdivided into two main categories: well structured problems and ill structured problems. The first require routine repetitive decisions which are generally amenable to programmable decision processes. The second require novel nonprogrammable decision processes. The decision making processes can be subdivided into those representative of those done by humans and those done by machine. Many of such decision processes require a combination of humans d machines. Automated decision making and problem solving technologies are expected to have their greatest potential impact in the space program.
Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.
Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100
Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P; Glasspool, David W
Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.
Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit
A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.
Snethen, Julia A; Broome, Marion E; Knafl, Kathleen; Deatrick, Janet A; Angst, Denise B
The decision-making process related to a child's participation in clinical trials often involves multiple family members. The aim of this study was to compare family patterns of decision-making within and across family units in pediatric clinical trials. Participants for this secondary analysis included 14 families from a larger study of informed consent. Four distinct patterns of decision-making were identified: Exclusionary, informative, collaborative, and delegated. These patterns varied with regard to three dimensions of parents' decision-making goals, child level of involvement, and the parental role. These patterns of decision-making affect how parents and children communicate with health professionals and influence the effectiveness of health care providers interactions with the family related to the decision-making process.
This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.
Yapici, Nilay; Zimmer, Manuel; Domingos, Ana I
People think they are in control of their own decisions: what to eat or drink, whom to marry or pick a fight with, where to live, what to buy. Behavioural economists and neurophysiologists have long studied decision-making behaviours. However, these behaviours have only recently been studied through the light of molecular genetics. Here, we review recent research in mice, Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans, that analyses the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying decision-making. These studies interrogate decision-making about food, sexual behaviour, aggression or foraging strategies, and add molecular and cell biology understanding onto the consilience of brain and decision.
Yapici, Nilay; Zimmer, Manuel; Domingos, Ana I
People think they are in control of their own decisions: what to eat or drink, whom to marry or pick a fight with, where to live, what to buy. Behavioural economists and neurophysiologists have long studied decision-making behaviours. However, these behaviours have only recently been studied through the light of molecular genetics. Here, we review recent research in mice, Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans, that analyses the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying decision-making. These studies interrogate decision-making about food, sexual behaviour, aggression or foraging strategies, and add molecular and cell biology understanding onto the consilience of brain and decision. PMID:25239948
Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael
Using paper and pencil experiments administered in senior centers, we examine decision-making performance in multi-attribute decision problems. We differentiate the effects of declining cognitive performance and changing cognitive process on decision-making performance of seniors as they age. We find a significant decline in performance with age due to reduced reliance on common heuristics and increased decision-making randomness among our oldest subjects. However, we find that increasing the number of options in a decision problem increases the number of heuristics brought to the task. This challenges the choice overload view that people give up when confronted with too much choice. PMID:22408282
Walker, Keith D.; Donlevy, J. Kent
This article examines the ethical conundrum of educational decision makers when faced with a plethora of conflicting value-based decisions. It offers an analysis of a well-known fable as the foil to demonstrate the problematic nature of ethical relativism and postmodern ethics in resolving that conundrum, while advocating the use of five core…
purpose Our approach to exploring whether an Electroencephalogy-driven Decision Aid (EEG-DA) can be used to enhance training has two...encouraging, as high false alarm rates can lead users to distrust automated decision aids . (Parasuraman & Wickens, 2008). Table 3 Hit % FA % A’ d
Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS.
To advance our understanding of how the brain makes food decisions, it is essential to combine knowledge from two fields that have not yet been well integrated: the neuro-computational basis of decision-making and the homeostatic regulators of feeding. This Review integrates these two literatures from a neuro-computational perspective, with an emphasis in describing the variables computed by different neural systems and how they affect dietary choice. We highlight what is unique about feeding decisions, the mechanisms through which metabolic and endocrine factors affect the decision-making circuitry, why making healthy food choices is difficult for many people, and key processes at work in the obesity epidemic.
Le Berre, A-P; Rauchs, G; La Joie, R; Mézenge, F; Boudehent, C; Vabret, F; Segobin, S; Viader, F; Allain, P; Eustache, F; Pitel, A-L; Beaunieux, H
Alcohol-dependent individuals usually favor instant gratification of alcohol use and ignore its long-term negative consequences, reflecting impaired decision-making. According to the somatic marker hypothesis, decision-making abilities are subtended by an extended brain network. As chronic alcohol consumption is known to be associated with brain shrinkage in this network, the present study investigated relationships between brain shrinkage and decision-making impairments in alcohol-dependent individuals early in abstinence using voxel-based morphometry. Thirty patients performed the Iowa Gambling Task and underwent a magnetic resonance imaging investigation (1.5T). Decision-making performances and brain data were compared with those of age-matched healthy controls. In the alcoholic group, a multiple regression analysis was conducted with two predictors (gray matter [GM] volume and decision-making measure) and two covariates (number of withdrawals and duration of alcoholism). Compared with controls, alcoholics had impaired decision-making and widespread reduced gray matter volume, especially in regions involved in decision-making. The regression analysis revealed links between high GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and right hippocampal formation, and high decision-making scores (P<0.001, uncorrected). Decision-making deficits in alcoholism may result from impairment of both emotional and cognitive networks.
One of the key components of effective management is the ability to make decisions. To more effectively assist hospital supervisors and managers in dealing with and making appropriate judgments, educators need to examine carefully the processes involved in decision making and how they impact on both the individual and the group. The following discussion of structured small-group decision making is adapted from an independent study of the literature undertaken by this author to dissect these processes and how they impact on the decisions made.
Tremblay, Sébastien; Gagnon, Jean-François; Lafond, Daniel; Hodgetts, Helen M; Doiron, Maxime; Jeuniaux, Patrick P J M H
While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies - using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules - have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called "IMAGE" to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed.
Cahir, Caitriona; Thomas, Kevin
Although affect is a fundamental element of decision making, there are different theoretical accounts and conflicting empirical evidence of its influence. This experiment was done to begin a more coherent account of the influence of affect by using standardised images to induce affect and a betting task to measure decision making. Eighty-five participants were assigned to a positive, a negative, or a neutral affect condition before making decisions on two hypothetical horse races. Analysis indicated that those in the positive and negative conditions made lower-risk decisions than those in the neutral condition; however, this did not differ between the races, suggesting that task familiarity did not moderate the influence of affect. Contrary to previous research, these results indicate that positive and negative affect do not necessarily exert symmetrical effects on decision making. Implications for the major accounts of the influence of affect on decision making are discussed in relation to the findings.
Bridges, Edwin M.
How the administrator might anticipate student-initiated reform is examined by observing present school practices, crisis condition influence on the decision process, and implications of alternative administrative action. (LN)
Mehlman, Maxwell J
Opponents of reproductive choice are attempting to limit reproductive decisions based on certain underlying reasons. This commentary explores the rationales for these limitations and the objections to them. It concludes that reasoned-based limitations are unsupportable and unenforceable.
Conner, D. W.
Decisions requiring passenger comfort technology were shown to depend on: the relationship between comfort and other factors (e.g., cost, urgency, alternate modes) in traveler acceptance of the systems, serving a selected market require technology to quantify effects of comfort versus offsetting factors in system acceptance. Public predict the maximum percentage of travelers who willingly accept the overall comfort of any trip ride. One or the other of these technology requirements apply to decisions on system design, operation and maintenance.
Chambers, Christopher P.; Echenique, Federico; Saito, Kota
We describe the observable content of some of the most widely used models of decision under uncertainty: models of translation invariant preferences. In particular, we characterize the models of variational, maxmin, constant absolute risk aversion, and constant relative risk aversion utilities. In each case we present a revealed preference axiom that is satisfied by a dataset if and only if the dataset is consistent with the corresponding utility representation. We test our axioms using data from an experiment on financial decisions. PMID:27035947
Research into human decision making (DM) processes from outside of education paint a different picture of DM than current DM models in education. This pilot study assesses the use of critical decision method (CDM)--developed from observations of firefighters' DM -- in the context of primary mathematics teachers' in-class DM. Preliminary results…
Wilpert, B.; And Others
Based on analysis of data on 432 decision-makers from around the world, this study examines the decision-making phenomenon that individuals tend to move toward riskier decisions after group discussion. Findings of the analysis contradicted earlier studies, showing a consistent shift toward greater risk avoidance. Available from Elsevier Scientific…
Bernacer, Javier; Balderas, Gloria; Martinez-Valbuena, Ivan; Pastor, Maria A; Murillo, Jose Ignacio
Newell & Shanks (N&S) carry out an extremely sharp and static distinction between conscious and unconscious decisions, ignoring a process that dynamically transfers decisions and actions between the conscious and unconscious domains of the mind: habitual decision making. We propose a new categorisation and discuss the main characteristics of this process from a philosophical and neuroscientific perspective.
Crow, Stephen M.; And Others
Linkages among gender, decision making, and values related to moral development and equity/equality are studied for 54 graduate and 186 undergraduate business school students (48 percent females) attending a Southern urban university. Results illustrate gender-related differences in value systems, weights of decision issues, and decisions. Future…
Jacobs, Janis E.; And Others
This study investigated the processes and outcomes of family decision-making during children's transition from late childhood to adolescence. Members of 28 one-parent families and 40 two-parent families completed four decision tasks independently, then as a family. Decision tasks concerned selecting a bicycle, a snack, a movie, and a camp for the…
Decision making processes are the research problem, that has been increasingly undertaken. Alcohol addiction is a disease associated with unfavorable decision making, in spite of its negative consequences. Impulsivity plays an important role in alcoholics' decision making. It can be understood in terms of behavioral and/or cognitive flexibility disorders, that manifest in cognitive function disorders, making it difficult or even impossible to quickly and adequately assess the situation and to adjust behavior according to its requirements.. Neurobiological and genetic research indicate the existing relationship between impulsivity and certain genetic predisposition. In alcohol addicts, impulsivity can be understood also in terms of specific personality traits, e.g. novelty seeking according to the theory of Cloninger. Although the concept of impulsivity itself has been the main topic of many studies, not many of them concern also decision making processes. In studies concerning alcoholics' decision making, the relationship between this processes and behavioral impulsivity defined in many different ways, has been noticed. Some of these works define unfavorable decision making processes itself as a feature of impulsivity. Based on the results of theoretical works and research studies, it seems that it would be worth to define more precisely the concept of impulsivity, in order to determine its effect on decision making. The assessment of whether - and to what extent - the two variables (impulsivity and decision making) can be considered as separate should also be taken into account.
Zhang, Long; Dong, Yi; Ji, Yifu; Tao, Rui; Chen, Xuequan; Ye, Jianguo; Zhang, Lei; Yu, Fengqiong; Zhu, Chunyan; Wang, Kai
This study aimed to investigate whether deficits in decision making were potential endophenotype markers for OCD considering different phases of the disease. Fifty-seven non-medicated OCD patients (nmOCD), 77 medicated OCD patients (mOCD), 48 remitted patients with OCD (rOCD) and 115 healthy controls were assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which measured decision making under ambiguity, and the Game of Dice Task (GDT), which measured decision making under risk. While the three patients groups showed impaired performance on the IGT compared with healthy controls, all patients showed intact performance on the GDT. Furthermore, the rOCD patients showed a preference for deck B, indicating that they showed more sensitivity to the frequency of loss than to the magnitude of loss, whereas the mOCD patients showed a preference for deck A, indicating that they had more sensitivity to the magnitude of loss than to the frequency of loss. These data suggested that OCD patients had trait-related impairments in decision making under ambiguity but not under risk, and that dissociation of decision making under ambiguity and under risk is an appropriate potential neurocognitive endophenotype for OCD. The subtle but meaningful differences in decision making performance between the OCD groups require further study. PMID:26601899
von Winterfeldt, Detlof
All decisions, whether they are personal, public, or business-related, are based on the decision maker's beliefs and values. Science can and should help decision makers by shaping their beliefs. Unfortunately, science is not easily accessible to decision makers, and scientists often do not understand decision makers' information needs. This article presents a framework for bridging the gap between science and decision making and illustrates it with two examples. The first example is a personal health decision. It shows how a formal representation of the beliefs and values can reflect scientific inputs by a physician to combine with the values held by the decision maker to inform a medical choice. The second example is a public policy decision about managing a potential environmental hazard. It illustrates how controversial beliefs can be reflected as uncertainties and informed by science to make better decisions. Both examples use decision analysis to bridge science and decisions. The conclusions suggest that this can be a helpful process that requires skills in both science and decision making.
Zhang, Long; Dong, Yi; Ji, Yifu; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Ma, Huijuan; Chen, Xingui; Wang, Kai
Evidence in the literature suggests that executive dysfunction is regarded as an endophenotype candidate for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Decision making is an important domain of executive function. However, few studies that have investigated whether decision making is a potential endophenotype for OCD have produced inconsistent results. Differences in the findings across these studies may be attributed to several factors: different study materials, comorbidity, medication, etc. There are at least two types of decision making that differ mainly in the degree of uncertainty and how much useful information about consequences and their probabilities are provided to the decision maker: decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk. The aim of the present study was to simultaneously examine decision making under ambiguity as assessed by the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and decision making under risk as measured by the Game of Dice Task (GDT) in OCD patients and their unaffected first-degree relative (UFDR) for the first time. The study analyzed 55 medication-naïve, non-depressed OCD patient probands, 55 UFDRs of the OCD patients and 55 healthy matched comparison subjects (CS) without a family history of OCD with the IGT, the GDT and a neuropsychological test battery. While the OCD patients and the UFDRs performed worse than the CS on the IGT, they were unimpaired on the GDT. Our study supports the claim that decision making under ambiguity differs from decision making under risk and suggests that dissociation of decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk may qualify to be a neurocognitive endophenotypes for OCD.
Gartlehner, Gerald; Matyas, Nina
Shared decision making in medicine has become a widely promoted approach. The goal is for patients and physicians to reach a mutual, informed decision by taking into consideration scientific evidence, clinical experience, and the patient's personal values or preferences. Shared decision making, however, is not a straightforward process. In practice, it might fall short of what it promises and might even be misused to whitewash monetary motives. In this article, which summarizes a presentation given at the 17(th) Annual Conference of the German Network Evidence-based Medicine on March 4(th), 2016 in Cologne, Germany, we discuss three contextual factors that in our opinion can have a tremendous impact on any informed decision making: 1) opinions and convictions of physicians or other clinicians; 2) uncertainty of the evidence regarding benefits and harms; 3) uncertainty of patients about their own values and preferences. But despite barriers and shortcomings, modern medicine currently does not have an alternative to shared decision making. Shared decision making has become a central theme in good quality health care because it has a strong ethical component. Advocates of shared decision making, however, must realize that not all patients prefer to participate in decision making. For those who do, however, we must ensure that shared decisions can be made in a neutral environment as free of biases and conflicts of interest as possible.
Aitken, Leanne M
Effective decision-making has the potential to facilitate improvements in health care. This paper reports several aspects of a study which used "thinking aloud" within a concept attainment framework to examine the decision-making processes of expert critical care nurses in relation to haemodynamic monitoring. The purpose of this study was to examine whether hypotheses were used in the decision-making process and, if so, were hypotheses deactivated when no longer relevant. In addition, the strategies that were used during the decision-making process were examined. Eight expert critical care nurses consented to participate in the study after ethics clearance was obtained from both the University and Hospital ethics committees. The majority of expert critical care nurse participants in this study demonstrated extensive use of hypotheses to explain the relationship between attributes and concepts. There was no evidence of specific deactivation of hypotheses when they were no longer relevant. Participants demonstrated use of a range of decision-making strategies, with a Focus Gambling Strategy being the most common. The reason for using different decision-making strategies was not clear and may represent variation between decision-makers or between scenarios for each individual decision-maker. Recommendations are made to help improve critical care nurses' decision-making.
Winterbottom, Anna; Bekker, Hilary L; Conner, Mark; Mooney, Andrew
Including narratives in health-care interventions is increasingly popular. However, narrative information may bias individual's decision making, resulting in patients making poorer decisions. This systematic review synthesises the evidence about the persuasiveness of narrative information on individuals' decision making. Seventeen studies met the review criteria; 41% of studies employed first person narration, 59% third person. Narrative information influenced decision making more than the provision of no additional information and/or statistically based information in approximately a third of the studies (5/17); studies employing first person narratives were twice as likely to find an effect. There was some evidence that narrative information encouraged the use of heuristic rather than systematic processing. However, there was little consistency in the methods employed and the narratives' content to provide evidence on why narratives affect the decision process and outcome, whether narratives facilitate or bias decision making, and/or whether narratives affect the quality of the decision being made. Until evidence is provided on why and how narratives influence decision making, the use of narratives in interventions to facilitate medical decision making should be treated cautiously.
Santos, Carlos D.; Przybyzin, Sebastian; Wikelski, Martin; Dechmann, Dina K. N.
Social animals routinely are challenged to make consensus decisions about movement directions and routes. However, the underlying mechanisms facilitating such decision-making processes are still poorly known. A prominent question is how group members participate in group decisions. We addressed this question by examining how flocks of homing pigeons (Columba livia) decide their homing direction. We released newly formed flocks varying in size and determined the time taken to choose a homing direction (decision-making period) and the accuracy of that choice. We found that the decision-making period increases exponentially with flock size, which is consistent with a participatory decision-making process. We additionally found that there is no effect of flock size on the accuracy of the decisions made, which does not match with current theory for democratic choices of flight directions. Our combined results are better explained by a participatory choice of leaders that subsequently undertake the flock directional decisions. However, this decision-making model would only entirely fit with our results if leaders were chosen based on traits other than their navigational experience. Our study provides rare empirical evidence elucidating decision-making processes in freely moving groups of animals. PMID:26863416
Jackson, Simon A.; Kleitman, Sabina
Decision-making is a complex process that is largely studied from an experimental perspective or in specific organizational contexts. As such, no generalizable framework exists with which to study decision-making from an individual differences perspective for predictive/selection purposes. By generalising a context-specific decision model proposed…
Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward
The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…
Payne, Lesle Karns
The author in this article presents a theory of decision-making in nursing, specifically a middle-range theory of intuitive decision-making in nursing created through the synthesis of Patricia Benner's model of skill acquisition in nursing and Damasio's somatic marker hypothesis. The author proposes that Damasio's somatic state is equivalent to what Benner has identified as intuition. When a nurse is faced with a decision, intuition, if developed, is a somatic state that creates a measurable physiological biasing signal (skin conductive response) that helps in making an advantageous decision. Research, educational, clinical and theoretical implications are discussed.
Roldán, Édgar; Neri, Izaak; Dörpinghaus, Meik; Meyr, Heinrich; Jülicher, Frank
We show that the steady-state entropy production rate of a stochastic process is inversely proportional to the minimal time needed to decide on the direction of the arrow of time. Here we apply Wald's sequential probability ratio test to optimally decide on the direction of time's arrow in stationary Markov processes. Furthermore, the steady-state entropy production rate can be estimated using mean first-passage times of suitable physical variables. We derive a first-passage time fluctuation theorem which implies that the decision time distributions for correct and wrong decisions are equal. Our results are illustrated by numerical simulations of two simple examples of nonequilibrium processes.
Roldán, Édgar; Neri, Izaak; Dörpinghaus, Meik; Meyr, Heinrich; Jülicher, Frank
We show that the steady-state entropy production rate of a stochastic process is inversely proportional to the minimal time needed to decide on the direction of the arrow of time. Here we apply Wald's sequential probability ratio test to optimally decide on the direction of time's arrow in stationary Markov processes. Furthermore, the steady-state entropy production rate can be estimated using mean first-passage times of suitable physical variables. We derive a first-passage time fluctuation theorem which implies that the decision time distributions for correct and wrong decisions are equal. Our results are illustrated by numerical simulations of two simple examples of nonequilibrium processes.
Ganske, Kathryn H.; Ashby, Jeffrey S.
This study investigated the relationship between perfectionism and career decision-making self-efficacy. Participants completed the Almost Perfect Scale-Revised (R. B. Slaney, K. G. Rice, M. Mobley, J. Trippi, & J. S. Ashby, 2001) and the Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy-Short Form (N. E. Betz, K. L. Klein, & K. M. Taylor, 1996). Adaptive…
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 416.2209 Section 416.2209 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY... Provisions § 416.2209 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide: (a)...
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 404.2109 Section 404.2109 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE... Provisions § 404.2109 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide— (a)...
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 404.2109 Section 404.2109 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE... Provisions § 404.2109 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide— (a)...
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 416.2209 Section 416.2209 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY... Provisions § 416.2209 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide: (a)...
The decisions people make in the face of circumstances they encounter influence their life in favourable or unfavourable ways. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between sporting habits and decision making strategies among university students. The research involved 1298 students (526 women and 772 men) studying during 2011-2012…
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 416.2209 Section 416.2209 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY... Provisions § 416.2209 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide: (a)...
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 404.2109 Section 404.2109 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE... Provisions § 404.2109 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide— (a)...
Jamieson, Rhiann; Theodore, Kate; Raczka, Roman
Little is known about how women with intellectual disabilities make decisions in relation to pregnancy. Social support is important for mothers with intellectual disabilities in many areas. This study explored how the support network influenced the decision-making of women with intellectual disabilities in relation to pregnancy. The study extended…
Savage, Grant T.
Habermas's theory of dialogue was used to evaluate the process of decision making that occurred in a labor-management committee's meeting to discuss flextime. The study attempted to determine why, at that meeting, the committee's consensus process of decision making failed. W.R. Bion's theory of unconscious group motives was also used to…
Bimrose, Jenny; Mulvey, Rachel
Career decisions are amongst the most important we make. Unsurprisingly, much published research exists on this particular aspect of career behaviour. However, the overwhelming majority of studies have been carried out on young people making initial career decisions. This paper extends our understanding by examining how mid-career adults in three…
Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore; Gati, Itamar
The goal of the present study was to test the psychometric properties of the Italian version of the "Career Decision-Making Profile" ("CDMP") questionnaire with a sample of 1,835 adolescents. Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, and Gadassi suggested that the way individuals make career decisions should not be described…
Harren, Vincent A.; Kass, Richard A.
This paper presents a theoretical framework for understanding career decision making (CDM); introduces an instrument, Assessment of Career Decision Making (ACDM) to measure CDM with college students; and presents correlational data on sex role and cognitive style factors hypothesized to influence CDM. The ACDM, designed to measure the Tiedeman and…
Lakomski, Gabriele; Evers, Colin W.
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to argue that emotion has a central role to play in rational decision making based on recent research in the neuroanatomy of emotion. As a result, traditional rational decision-making theories, including Herbert Simon's modified model of satisficing that sharply demarcates emotions and values from rationality…
Oliver, Diane E.; Hioco, Barbara
The purpose of this article is to describe a decision-making framework developed for use by community college administrators and higher education faculty members who teach graduate courses in community college administration or leadership. The rationale for developing a decision-making approach that integrates ethics and critical thinking was…
Aikenhead, Glen S.
Addresses the meaning of decision making on societal issues related to science/technology and explores practical implications for secondary science teaching. Cases on marijuana, abortion, and public inquiries are included together with discussion of collective decision making at the global, strategic, personal, and scientific community levels. A…
... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process. (a) Purpose. The purpose of this section is to set out the floodplain management and wetlands... the decision-making process was initially designed to address the floodplain Order's requirements,...
... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process. (a) Purpose. The purpose of this section is to set out the floodplain management and wetlands... the decision-making process was initially designed to address the floodplain Order's requirements,...
... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process. (a) Purpose. The purpose of this section is to set out the floodplain management and wetlands... the decision-making process was initially designed to address the floodplain Order's requirements,...
Fogarty, Gerard J.; McGregor-Bayne, Heather
A common belief about elite athletes is that they invest so much effort into the pursuit of their athletic careers that they fail to develop good career decision-making skills. Recent findings challenge that belief. The present study investigated career decision-making difficulties among 117 elite Australian athletes. Participants completed…
Fouad, Nadya; Cotter, Elizabeth W.; Kantamneni, Neeta
This study examined the effectiveness of a college career course designed to increase career decision-making confidence and facilitate career exploration. Participants were 73 students from a large Midwestern university (65.6% women, 34.4% men, mean age 18.56). Students were given questionnaires assessing career decision-making difficulties,…
Career decision making is a process that continues throughout the life span. But the process can be impeded by lack of occupational exploration, vocational indecision, and lack of realism in vocational choice. Each obstacle is examined and intervention strategies to assist in decision making are proposed. (Author)
Gati, Itamar; And Others
Examines a taxonomy of career decision-making difficulties. A questionnaire was administered to 563 young adults at the beginning of their career decision-making process. The relations among the 10 scales, which represent 10 theoretical categories of difficulties, and those among the items within 2 selected categories, were similar in the 2…
Albion, Majella J.; Fogarty, Gerard J.
In separate studies, 121 high school students and 127 adults completed the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire. Its multidimensional structure was confirmed and the model of career decision making fit both groups. The adults reported fewer difficulties on all subscales. (Contains 60 references.) (SK)
Taber, Brian J.
Decision making is not only contingent upon what takes place in the present but also on how one feels about the past and one's hopes for the future. However, when it comes to time perspective and career decision making, vocational psychology has focused exclusively on future time perspective. The present study examines the relations among past,…
Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira
The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…
Abdullah, Suhaily; Majid, Faizah Abd
Teacher decision making involves a selection of options that leads to thinking processes, underlying teaching in language classroom contexts. Due to this, as a small part of an on-going postgraduate research, this exploratory case study shares the initial findings on the lecturers' decision-making effects on their classroom orientation. Four…
Allen, Barbara; And Others
In order to incorporate the elements of personal decision making directly into a ninth grade English curriculum, the decision making lessons presented in this paper were written for literature commonly taught in junior high schools. The paper suggests activities for the following works: "Romeo and Juliet,""Flowers for Algernon,""The Martian…
Prachagool, Veena; Nuangchalerm, Prasart; Subramaniam, Ganakumaran; Dostal, Jirí
Pedagogical decision making is very important for professional teachers, it concerns belief, self-efficacy, and actions that teachers expose to classroom. This paper employed theoretical lens and education policy in Thailand to examine the preservice teachers' views about pedagogical decision making. Discussion helps school mentors understand…
Banks, James A.
This paper delineates a process of rational decision-making and social action. To make a rational decision, the social actor must use concepts, generalizations and theories from the social sciences, knowledge which has high predictive value, and knowledge which constitutes the structures of the social science disciplines. He must also identify,…
AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE INFORMATION DOMINANCE : INFORMATION’S ROLE IN INFLUENCING DECISION MAKING 5. FUNDING...unlimited INFORMATION DOMINANCE : INFORMATION’S ROLE IN INFLUENCING DECISION MAKING Geoffrey C. Gaines Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited INFORMATION
Leist, James C.; Konen, Joseph C.
Four factors of clinical decision making identified by medical students include quality of care, cost, ethics, and legal concerns. This paper argues that physicians have two responsibilities in the clinical decision-making model: to be the primary advocate for quality health care and to ensure balance among the four factors, working in partnership…
Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira
The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young adults who were about to make a career choice, we assessed the individuals' decision status and the associations of the dimensions Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties (EPCD; Saka, Gati, & Kelly, 2008) and personality factors (NEO Personality Inventory-Revised; Costa & McCrae, 1992). The results suggest that, as hypothesized, comprehensive Information gathering, analytic Information processing, a more internal Locus of control, more Effort invested, less Procrastination, greater Speed of making the final decision, less Dependence on others, and less Desire to please others were more adaptive in making career decisions. However, contrary to our hypotheses, high Aspiration for an ideal occupation was more adaptive for the decision-making process, Willingness to compromise was not associated with more adaptive decision making, and the results regarding Consulting with others were mixed. Gender differences in the CDMP dimensions and counseling implications are discussed.
Golnik, Allison; Maccabee-Ryaboy, Nadia; Scal, Peter; Wey, Andrew; Gaillard, Philippe
We assessed the extent to which parents of children with autism spectrum disorder report that they are engaged in shared decision making. We measured the association between shared decision making and (a) satisfaction with care, (b) perceived guidance regarding controversial issues in autism spectrum disorder, and (c) perceived assistance…
Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen
This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…
Piekos, Jennie M.; Einsiedel, Edna F.
A study examined gender and the practice of public relations in Canada, investigation whether there are gender differences in: (1) structural factors such as practitioner roles, salaries, and job satisfaction; (2) participation in management decision-making; and (3) methods of decision-making, particularly in the area of program evaluation. A…
Kentucky Univ., Lexington. Inst. on Education Reform.
This report describes what schools and educators across Kentucky are doing to implement school reform in school-based decision-making based on the Kentucky Education Reform Act of 1990 (KERA). The School-Based Decision Making (SBDM) component of KERA is a decentralized governance structure that vests great authority in SBDM councils operating at…
Findlay, Nora M.
Little research exists that examines the exercise of discretion by principals in their disciplinary decision making. This study sought to understand the application of values by principals as they engage in student disciplinary decision making within legally fixed parameters of their administrative discretion. This qualitative methodology used…
Baratta, Anthony N.
The development of theories to explain decision-making requires a model that identifies the factors relevant to decision-making. Seven sets of explanatory factors--called the "seven analytical A's"--should be analyzed. They include (1) axiological factors, or those related to values; (2) ten axiomatic factors comprising socioeconomic,…
Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah
Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…
Fore, Cecil, III; Riser, Susan E.
This article investigates issues in the areas of work outcomes, self-determination, career decision-making skills, person centered planning, and transitional planning for students with disabilities. In particular, training in cognitive decision-making is suggested for students with mild disabilities. Educators and schools are charged with…
Tedesco, Paul H., Ed.; And Others
These teacher developed case studies taken from the business world are presented to help secondary students develop an understanding of economics and of the decision-making process. The studies describe real business situations. All historical and current facts are provided, and students must analyze the data and make business decisions. Teacher…
Kreitler, Crystal M.; Dansereau, Donald F.; Barth, Timothy M.; Ito, Sachiyo
Previous studies have demonstrated that many college students, specifically those high on extraversion are prone to risky and sometimes unethical decision-making. The present study examined the impact of a decision-making "tool" that incorporated the use of standard ethical perspectives on students' attitudes and intentions. This "fill in the…
Chamley, John D.; And Others
To overcome the superprincipal complex, principals must become expert in processing information and making decisions. To make informed decisions most effectively, principals should employ participatory management, become process consultants, and incorporate the Situation-Target-Proposal (STP) method for resolving problems. Otherwise, change will…
Lizarraga, Maria Luisa Sanz De Acedo; Baquedano, Maria Teresa Sanz De Acedo; Oliver, Maria Soria; Closas, Antonio
The "Decision-Making Questionnaire" (DMQ) was developed and validated in order to examine the factors that affect decision making. The investigation was carried out with two samples, one of 170 participants and the other of 425 of both sexes. Each sample was divided into three age ranges: young students (18-25 years), adults (26-60…
In today's accountability climate, regional accrediting bodies are requiring colleges and universities to develop and sustain a culture of evidence-based decision making and improvement. But two-thirds of college presidents in a 2011 "Inside Higher Ed" survey said their institutions are not particularly strong at using data for making decisions.…
Gelatt, H. B.; Gelatt, Carol
This paper discusses the "Positive Uncertainty" career decision making strategy, which came into being in 1989. The author suggests that Positive Uncertainty is relevant for individuals struggling to make decisions about their careers, relationships, retirement, life, and more. It is also relevant for career coaches, executive coaches,…
Bender, Louis W.
Administrative decision-making encompasses three levels on which increasing legal challenges and liability and their implications need to be considered. At the local level, this may involve violations of procedural due process. A second level concerns state laws and regulations. Line administrators, who frequently make decisions on programs,…
Carver, Jeffrey S.
The instructional decision-making processes of high school science teachers have not been well established in the literature. Several models for decision-making do exist in other teaching disciplines, business, computer game programming, nursing, and some fields of science. A model that incorporates differences in science teaching that is consistent with constructivist theory as opposed to conventional science teaching is useful in the current climate of standards-based instruction that includes an inquiry-based approach to teaching science. This study focuses on three aspects of the decision-making process. First, it defines what factors, both internal and external, influence high school science teacher decision-making. Second, those factors are analyzed further to determine what instructional decision-making processes are articulated or demonstrated by the participants. Third, by analyzing the types of decisions that are made in the classroom, the classroom learning environments established as a result of those instructional decisions are studied for similarities and differences between conventional and constructivist models. While the decision-making process for each of these teachers was not clearly articulated by the teachers themselves, the patterns that establish the process were clearly exhibited by the teachers. It was also clear that the classroom learning environments that were established were, at least in part, established as a result of the instructional decisions that were made in planning and implementation of instruction. Patterns of instructional decision-making were different for each teacher as a result of primary instructional goals that were different for each teacher. There were similarities between teachers who exhibited more constructivist epistemological tendencies as well as similarities between teachers who exhibited a more conventional epistemology. While the decisions that will result from these two camps may be different, the six step
Juhasz, Anne McCreary; Sonnenshein-Schneider, Mary
Analyzed adolescents' (N=500) evaluations of factors which would influence their sexual decisions. Results idetified six factors (family establishment competence, external morality, consequences of childbearing, self-enhancement through sexual intercourse, intimacy considerations regarding sexual intercourse, consequence of marriage) which were…
Decision-makers need information on cumulative and aggregate stressors as well as clear information on where problems are likely to occur in the future in order to prioritize risk management actions. The most prevasive and difficult to assess changes are the result of regional-s...
Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...
mentioned previously, an important element in the process is the detection of change. 4. DECISION MAYER CORRECTLY UNDERSTANDS SIGNAL MEANING - The pilot...weight. (2) What I failed to realize was that they had stowed some of their heaviest gear in the baggage compartment which shifted the C.G. to slightly
cwre contrasted to traditional decision--akinL ’ I iteca-turo. Training methods were recommended that would in- corporate the i:mplications of the...report.’) (Example, trainer: ’Should have called in to the commander and let him know that that vehicle was out of action.’) Communicaton
Uncertainty • Causal Reasoning and Bayesian /Machine Learning Algorithms • Neural Basis of Cognition and Decision • Computational Cognitive...EECS) The Scientific Challenge: The Holy Grail of Neuroscience - What is the neural code ? - Can we “reconstruct” cognition from neural spiking...statistical inference, etc. Neuroscience: implementing the solution by the neural architecture (including hardware and currency). Behavior
Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.
Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would
Bizley, Jennifer K; Jones, Gareth P; Town, Stephen M
Multisensory integration is observed in many subcortical and cortical locations including primary and non-primary sensory cortex, and higher cortical areas including frontal and parietal cortex. During unisensory perceptual tasks many of these same brain areas show neural signatures associated with decision-making. It is unclear whether multisensory representations in sensory cortex directly inform decision-making in a multisensory task, or if cross-modal signals are only combined after the accumulation of unisensory evidence at a final decision-making stage in higher cortical areas. Manipulations of neuronal activity are required to establish causal roles for given brain regions in multisensory perceptual decision-making, and so far indicate that distributed networks underlie multisensory decision-making. Understanding multisensory integration requires synthesis of small-scale pathway specific and large-scale network level manipulations.
Rahnev, Dobromir; Nee, Derek Evan; Riddle, Justin; Larson, Alina Sue; D'Esposito, Mark
Although recent research has shown that the frontal cortex has a critical role in perceptual decision making, an overarching theory of frontal functional organization for perception has yet to emerge. Perceptual decision making is temporally organized such that it requires the processes of selection, criterion setting, and evaluation. We hypothesized that exploring this temporal structure would reveal a large-scale frontal organization for perception. A causal intervention with transcranial magnetic stimulation revealed clear specialization along the rostrocaudal axis such that the control of successive stages of perceptual decision making was selectively affected by perturbation of successively rostral areas. Simulations with a dynamic model of decision making suggested distinct computational contributions of each region. Finally, the emergent frontal gradient was further corroborated by functional MRI. These causal results provide an organizational principle for the role of frontal cortex in the control of perceptual decision making and suggest specific mechanistic contributions for its different subregions.
Nee, Derek Evan; Riddle, Justin; Larson, Alina Sue; D’Esposito, Mark
Although recent research has shown that the frontal cortex has a critical role in perceptual decision making, an overarching theory of frontal functional organization for perception has yet to emerge. Perceptual decision making is temporally organized such that it requires the processes of selection, criterion setting, and evaluation. We hypothesized that exploring this temporal structure would reveal a large-scale frontal organization for perception. A causal intervention with transcranial magnetic stimulation revealed clear specialization along the rostrocaudal axis such that the control of successive stages of perceptual decision making was selectively affected by perturbation of successively rostral areas. Simulations with a dynamic model of decision making suggested distinct computational contributions of each region. Finally, the emergent frontal gradient was further corroborated by functional MRI. These causal results provide an organizational principle for the role of frontal cortex in the control of perceptual decision making and suggest specific mechanistic contributions for its different subregions. PMID:27162349
Torke, Alexia M; Alexander, G Caleb; Lantos, John
Substituted judgment is often invoked as a guide for decision making when a patient lacks decision making capacity and has no advance directive. Using substituted judgment, doctors and family members try to make the decision that the patient would have made if he or she were able to make decisions. However, empirical evidence suggests that the moral basis for substituted judgment is unsound. In spite of this, many physicians and bioethicists continue to rely on the notion of substituted judgment. Given compelling evidence that the use of substituted judgment has insurmountable flaws, other approaches should be considered. One approach provides limits on decision making using a best interest standard based on community norms. A second approach uses narrative techniques and focuses on each patient's dignity and individuality rather than his or her autonomy.
Woodhouse, Kristina Demas; Tremont, Katie; Vachani, Anil; Schapira, Marilyn M; Vapiwala, Neha; Simone, Charles B; Berman, Abigail T
Cancer treatment decisions are complex and may be challenging for patients, as multiple treatment options can often be reasonably considered. As a result, decisional support tools have been developed to assist patients in the decision-making process. A commonly used intervention to facilitate shared decision-making is a decision aid, which provides evidence-based outcomes information and guides patients towards choosing the treatment option that best aligns with their preferences and values. To ensure high quality, systematic frameworks and standards have been proposed for the development of an optimal aid for decision making. Studies have examined the impact of these tools on facilitating treatment decisions and improving decision-related outcomes. In radiation oncology, randomized controlled trials have demonstrated that decision aids have the potential to improve patient outcomes, including increased knowledge about treatment options and decreased decisional conflict with decision-making. This article provides an overview of the shared-decision making process and summarizes the development, validation, and implementation of decision aids as patient educational tools in radiation oncology. Finally, this article reviews the findings from decision aid studies in radiation oncology and offers various strategies to effectively implement shared decision-making into clinical practice.
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
Rolls, Edmund T; Grabenhorst, Fabian; Deco, Gustavo
To provide a fundamental basis for understanding decision-making and decision confidence, we analyze a neuronal spiking attractor-based model of decision-making. The model predicts probabilistic decision-making with larger neuronal responses and larger functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses on correct than on error trials because the spiking noise-influenced decision attractor state of the network is consistent with the external evidence. Moreover, the model predicts that the neuronal activity and the BOLD response will become larger on correct trials as the discriminability ΔI increases and confidence increases and will become smaller as confidence decreases on error trials as ΔI increases. Confidence is thus an emergent property of the model. In an fMRI study of an olfactory decision-making task, we confirm these predictions for cortical areas including medial prefrontal cortex and the cingulate cortex implicated in choice decision-making, showing a linear increase in the BOLD signal with ΔI on correct trials, and a linear decrease on error trials. These effects were not found in a control area, the orbitofrontal cortex, where reward value useful for the choice is represented on a continuous scale but that is not implicated in the choice itself. This provides a unifying approach to decision-making and decision confidence and to how spiking-related noise affects choice, confidence, synaptic and neuronal activity, and fMRI signals.
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
What distinguishes a competent decision maker and how should the issue of decision quality be approached in a real-life context? These questions were explored in three studies. In Study 1, using a web-based questionnaire and targeting a community sample, we investigated the relationships between objective and subjective indicators of real-life decision-making success. In Study 2 and 3, targeting two different samples of professionals, we explored if the prevalent cognitively oriented definition of decision-making competence could be beneficially expanded by adding aspects of competence in terms of social skills and time-approach. The predictive power for each of these three aspects of decision-making competence was explored for different indicators of real-life decision-making success. Overall, our results suggest that research on decision-making competence would benefit by expanding the definition of competence, by including decision-related abilities in terms of social skills and time-approach. Finally, the results also indicate that individual differences in real-life decision-making success profitably can be approached and measured by different criteria. PMID:26545239
Galante, Giacomo; Aiello, Giuseppe; Enea, Mario; Panascia, Enrico
The issue addressed in this paper consists in the localization and dimensioning of transfer stations, which constitute a necessary intermediate level in the logistic chain of the solid waste stream, from municipalities to the incinerator. Contextually, the determination of the number and type of vehicles involved is carried out in an integrated optimization approach. The model considers both initial investment and operative costs related to transportation and transfer stations. Two conflicting objectives are evaluated, the minimization of total cost and the minimization of environmental impact, measured by pollution. The design of the integrated waste management system is hence approached in a multi-objective optimization framework. To determine the best means of compromise, goal programming, weighted sum and fuzzy multi-objective techniques have been employed. The proposed analysis highlights how different attitudes of the decision maker towards the logic and structure of the problem result in the employment of different methodologies and the obtaining of different results. The novel aspect of the paper lies in the proposal of an effective decision support system for operative waste management, rather than a further contribution to the transportation problem. The model was applied to the waste management of optimal territorial ambit (OTA) of Palermo (Italy).
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication
Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.
Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and
Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M
The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.
Gomas, J M
We developed a patient-centered decision making tool to help healthcare teams make ethical decisions in crisis or end-of-life situations. This tool is the fruit of 15 years of healthcare experience and discussions on ethical issues with patients suffering from cancer, severe handicaps or terminal disease. It has been enriched by experience acquired since the publication of earlier work in the nineties. A three-step decision-making process is proposed providing a methodic aid for management decisions which remain unique for each individual patient.
We propose that individuals practice "mental depreciation," that is, they implicitly spread the fixed costs of their expenses over time or use. Two studies explore how people spread fixed costs on durable goods. A third study shows that depreciation can lead to two distinct errors in marginal decisions: First, people sometimes invest too much effort to get their money's worth from an expense (e.g., they may use a product a lot to spread the fixed expense across more uses). Second, people sometimes invest too little effort to get their money's worth: When people add a portion of the fixed cost to the current costs, their perceived marginal (i.e., incremental) costs exceed their true marginal costs. In response, they may stop investing because their perceived costs surpass the marginal benefits they are receiving. The latter effect is supported by two field studies that explore real board plan decisions by university students.
Kluge, E H
One of the most difficult problems facing physicians is how to approach proxy decisions made on behalf of congenitally incompetent patients. The author considers two recent court cases that attempt to provide guidelines: Re Stephen Dawson, which opts for a substituted-judgement approach, and Eve v. Mrs E.) which injoins best-interests considerations. The author explores the impact of Eve v. Mrs. E. as superseding Re Stephen Dawson, considers its ethical implications and attempts to clarify the best-interests criterion by sketching some guidelines for its interpretation. In so doing, he tries to reconcile the two decisions by laying bare their common underlying ethical rationale. The author concludes by pointing out some ethically questionable implications of Eve v. Mrs. E. in the area of allocation of health care resources. PMID:3651942
answer to these questions involves human intelligence and understanding before the data-to- decision process begins. 1 INTRODUCTION Computers are...and threats made by people explaining how they will react to certain things. This step is well suited to modern computers if the relevant data are...evaluated by some combination of these same human assemblies. 3 SUSAN SANCHEZ: STEPS TOWARD A COMPUTER-CENTRIC FUTURE 3.1 Introduction I believe
Stimulus Types Ambiguity Tolerance MSTAT T Self-Regulation Problem Solving Scale PSS S Self-Awareness Freiberg Mindfulness Inventory FMI S Decision...Removed Freiburg Mindfulness Inventory ( FMI ) 6 Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CDRS) 3 Metacognitive Activities Inventory (MAI) 11, 12, 20...the case of BRS (resilience), FMI (self-awareness), NCA (attentional control), and DES (perspective taking), the magnitude of eigenvalues and the
Naguib, Maged B.; Saleh, Essam; Aristegui, Miguel; Mazzoni, Antonio; Sanna, Mario
Patients with acoustic neuroma in their only hearing ear are not frequently seen in clinical practice. Managing this group of patients is a challenge to both patient and surgeon. In this study we report on five cases of acoustic neuroma in an only hearing ear. Our decision for nonsurgical management of those patients with regular follow-up using auditory brainstem responses and magnetic resonance imaging is discussed. Other management options currently available are considered as well. PMID:17170923
Chien, Y C; Lin, C; Worthley, J
92 young adolescents were tested using Tversky and Kahneman's (1981) decision problems for framing effects. A notable number of young adolescents tested were not influenced by the context of the decision problems, thus they selected the same response option for positively and negatively framed problems. Parallel information was not available in Tversky and Kahneman's study for adults because they used a between-subjects design. However, for present adolescents who selected different response options for different framing problems, the response pattern exhibited by them resembled the general pattern exhibited by the adults tested in Tversky and Kahneman's study-negative frames led them to accept risk to avoid certain loss; positive frames prevented them from risking what they were certain to gain. Boys and girls were similar in their susceptibility to framing effects as were honors students in mathematics as compared to nonhonors students. Although the positive vs negative framing only influenced some of the young adolescents tested in this study, because the influence was consistent, researchers and educators interested in adolescents' decisions involving risky choices might use framing principles to design and assess cognitive interventions for high-risk behaviors among young adolescents.
Pearlman, F.; Coote, A.; Friedl, L.; Stewart, M.
Geospatial information contributes to decisions by both societal and individual decision-makers. More effective use of this information is essential as issues are increasingly complex and consequences can be critical for future economic and social development. To address this, a workshop brought together analysts, communicators, officials, and researchers from academia, government, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector. A range of policy issues, management needs, and resource requirements were discussed and a wide array of analyses, geospatial data, methods of analysis, and metrics were presented for assessing and communicating the value of geospatial information. It is clear that there are many opportunities for integrating science and engineering disciplines with the social sciences for addressing societal issues that would benefit from using geospatial information and earth observations. However, these collaborations must have outcomes that can be easily communicated to decision makers. This generally requires either succinct quantitative statements of value based on rigorous models and/or user testimonials of actual applications that save real money. An outcome of the workshop is to pursue the development of a community of practice or society that encompasses a wide range of scientific, social, management, and communication disciplines and fosters collaboration across specialties, helping to build trust across social and science aspects. A resource base is also necessary. This presentation will address approaches for creating a shared knowledge database, containing a glossary of terms, reference materials and examples of case studies and the potential applications for benefit analyses.
Shapiro, Arthur S.; And Others
This paper develops a theory-practice view of administrative and organizational decision making. Its goals are to improve administrative decision-making processes, facilitate organizational change through faculty involvement, and increase the potential for success in education reform efforts. The first sections discuss the nature of theory and…
Levinson, Wendy; Kao, Audiey; Kuby, Alma; Thisted, Ronald A
BACKGROUND The Institute of Medicine calls for physicians to engage patients in making clinical decisions, but not every patient may want the same level of participation. OBJECTIVES 1) To assess public preferences for participation in decision making in a representative sample of the U.S. population. 2) To understand how demographic variables and health status influence people's preferences for participation in decision making. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based survey of a fully representative sample of English-speaking adults was conducted in concert with the 2002 General Social Survey (N= 2,765). Respondents expressed preferences ranging from patient-directed to physician-directed styles on each of 3 aspects of decision making (seeking information, discussing options, making the final decision). Logistic regression was used to assess the relationships of demographic variables and health status to preferences. MAIN RESULTS Nearly all respondents (96%) preferred to be offered choices and to be asked their opinions. In contrast, half of the respondents (52%) preferred to leave final decisions to their physicians and 44% preferred to rely on physicians for medical knowledge rather than seeking out information themselves. Women, more educated, and healthier people were more likely to prefer an active role in decision making. African-American and Hispanic respondents were more likely to prefer that physicians make the decisions. Preferences for an active role increased with age up to 45 years, but then declined. CONCLUSION This population-based study demonstrates that people vary substantially in their preferences for participation in decision making. Physicians and health care organizations should not assume that patients wish to participate in clinical decision making, but must assess individual patient preferences and tailor care accordingly. PMID:15987329
Schnetler, Thomas; Davis, Richard; Waddingham, John; James, Karen
The Environment Agency of England has wide ranging responsibility for environmental regulation that includes both water resources management and flood management. In order to best fulfil its role decisions need to be taken using the best available evidence in the time available. The manipulation of large amounts of hydrological data in a way that best meets the needs of decision makers is a complex challenge. Not only should any analysis be technically robust but it should also be presented in a way that communicates key messages clearly and quickly. The Environment Agency and its predecessor organisations has a long history of working with hydrological data but in recent years there has been a need to better incorporate risk and uncertainty into hydrological analysis so that subsequent decisions can take this into account. In the face of recent extreme weather events, there has been an increasing demand for forward look projections from water resource and flood risk practitioners, decision makers and contingency planners. These assessments are required to give appropriate lead in time to allow risk mitigation measures to be implemented to minimise impact upon people, the environment and infrastructure. This presentation will outline the methodologies developed by the Environment Agency to produce and publish monthly routine forward look projections using both a scenario and climate ensemble approach. It will cover how information is disseminated, providing a good example of communicating science to decision makers and to the public. Examples of practical applications of these methodologies include: • Risk based planning and forecasting of water availability for inter basin water transfers into water stressed catchments. • Assessment of water resources prospects during droughts for people and the environment • The likelihood and medium term risk of high groundwater levels impacting upon people and infrastructure. There are also a number of future challenges
Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.
Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults’ higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making “traits”—including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants’ greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults. PMID:24040999
Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.
Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143
Orasanu, Judith; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have
White, M. J.
The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.
The exercise of conscience can have far reaching effects. Poor behaviour can be fatal, as it has occurred in various medical scandals over the years. This article takes a wide definition of conscience as its starting point, and argues that the decision-making processes open to society--legal regulation and professional regulation--can serve to limit the options available to an individual and thus her ability to exercise her conscience. The article charts the law's changing attitude to legal intervention, which now seeks to limit the use of conscience by individuals, and addresses concerns that this may serve to 'de-moralise' medicine. It also examines the reasons for this legal change of approach.
Public health, prevention, health education and health promotion are inseparable from the concepts of information and communication. Information should respond as much as possible to the needs of professionals, decision-makers, and consumers who are more and more concerned and conscious of its importance in light of "information overload", various dissemination channels and the multiplicity of its sources. There are numerous issues at stake ranging from comprehension, to the validation of health information, health education, health promotion, prevention, decision-making, as well as issues related to knowledge and power. Irrespective of the type of choice to be made, the need for information, knowledge, and know-how is inseparable from that of other tools or regulatory measures required for decision-making. Information is the same as competence, epidemiological and population data, health data, scientific opinion, and expert conferences--all are needed to assist in decision-making. Based on the principle of precaution, information must increasingly take into account the rejection of a society which often reasons on the basis of a presumption of zero-risk, in an idealistic manner, and which also excludes the possibility of new risks. The consumer positions himself as the regulator of decisions, specifically those with regard to the notion of acceptable level of risk. All of the actors involved in the health system are or become at one moment or another public health decision-makers. Their decision might be based either on an analytical approach, or on an intuitive approach. Although the act of decision-making is the least visible part of public health policy, it is certainly the driving force. This process should integrate the perspective of all of the relevant players, including consumers, who are currently situated more and more frequently at the heart of the health system. Public health decision-making is conducted as a function of political, strategic and
Murphy, Peter R; Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Nieuwenhuis, Sander
Decision making between several alternatives is thought to involve the gradual accumulation of evidence in favor of each available choice. This process is profoundly variable even for nominally identical stimuli, yet the neuro-cognitive substrates that determine the magnitude of this variability are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that arousal state is a powerful determinant of variability in perceptual decision making. We measured pupil size, a highly sensitive index of arousal, while human subjects performed a motion-discrimination task, and decomposed task behavior into latent decision making parameters using an established computational model of the decision process. In direct contrast to previous theoretical accounts specifying a role for arousal in several discrete aspects of decision making, we found that pupil diameter was uniquely related to a model parameter representing variability in the rate of decision evidence accumulation: Periods of increased pupil size, reflecting heightened arousal, were characterized by greater variability in accumulation rate. Pupil diameter also correlated trial-by-trial with specific patterns of behavior that collectively are diagnostic of changing accumulation rate variability, and explained substantial individual differences in this computational quantity. These findings provide a uniquely clear account of how arousal state impacts decision making, and may point to a relationship between pupil-linked neuromodulation and behavioral variability. They also pave the way for future studies aimed at augmenting the precision with which people make decisions.
Berger, Jeffrey T; DeRenzo, Evan G; Schwartz, Jack
The care of adult patients without decision-making abilities is a routine part of medical practice. Decisions for these patients are typically made by surrogates according to a process governed by a hierarchy of 3 distinct decision-making standards: patients' known wishes, substituted judgments, and best interests. Although this framework offers some guidance, it does not readily incorporate many important considerations of patients and families and does not account for the ways in which many patients and surrogates prefer to make decisions. In this article, the authors review the research on surrogate decision making, compare it with normative standards, and offer ways in which the 2 can be reconciled for the patient's benefit.
During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.
Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel
The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.
Tsaloglidou, A; Rammos, K; Kiriklidis, K; Zourladani, A; Matziari, C
This study provides an insight into the process of ethical decision-making regarding the initiation or withdrawal of artificial nutritional support of seriously ill patients and explores the nursing involvement in it. Fifteen health carers were recruited from a clinical nutrition unit in the UK and qualitative research methods were used to gather data. The findings of the study indicate that nursing contribution to decision-making appeared to be in the 'back room' as the nurses feel that the decisions about difficult ethical dilemmas are 'out of their hands' because of lack of knowledge, experience and confidence. The medical staff and the clinical nurse specialist appear to be primarily responsible for making important decisions. It is clear from the study that to become more effective in the process, nurses need to enhance their knowledge in nutritional support and to develop their practical skills in ethical decision-making through experience and research.
Orasanu, Judith; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)
A model that characterizes pilots'decision making in flight will be presented. Elements of the model that appear most vulnerable to stress will be examined in light of accidents and incidents. The model includes two major components: Situation assessment and choice of a course of action. While based on Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision Making, it is tailored to the aviation environment which includes certain features that may be common to other domains: Primarily, aviation is highly proceduralized and options are generally well known. What appears to make decisions difficult are ambiguity, time pressure, and risk. In addition, decisions must often be made while carrying out the standard procedures of flight, including checklists, review of approach plates, standard briefings, and communication with air traffic controllers or cabin crew. The effects of stressors on decision making by pilots with varying levels of expertise will be explored, along with strategies for strengthening the weak links.
Clinical decisions and clinical judgements are important elements of nursing practice because they have a direct effect on patient care. A four-stage information processing framework was used to critique a decision to carry out chest examination and auscultation during the routine assessment of a child's asthma status. The use of this process demonstrates that nurses apply a combination of analytical and intuitive strategies when making decisions. Nurses who manage the care of patients in nurse-led clinics need to acquire advanced assessment skills to support their clinical decision making.
Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Raio, Candace M; Gottesman, Sarah P; Lackovic, Sandra F; Phelps, Elizabeth A
The ubiquitous and intense nature of stress responses necessitate that we understand how they affect decision-making. Despite a number of studies examining risky decision-making under stress, it is as yet unclear whether and in what way stress alters the underlying processes that shape our choices. This is in part because previous studies have not separated and quantified dissociable valuation and decision-making processes that can affect choices of risky options, including risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency, among others. Here, in a large, fully-crossed two-day within-subjects design, we examined how acute stress alters risky decision-making. On each day, 120 participants completed either the cold pressor test or a control manipulation with equal probability, followed by a risky decision-making task. Stress responses were assessed with salivary cortisol. We fit an econometric model to choices that dissociated risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency using hierarchical Bayesian techniques to both pool data and allow heterogeneity in decision-making. Acute stress was found to have no effect on risk attitudes, loss aversion, or choice consistency, though participants did become more loss averse and more consistent on the second day relative to the first. In the context of an inconsistent previous literature on risk and acute stress, our findings provide strong and specific evidence that acute stress does not affect risk attitudes, loss aversion, or consistency in risky monetary decision-making.
Costa, Albert; Foucart, Alice; Arnon, Inbal; Aparici, Melina; Apesteguia, Jose
In this article, we assess to what extent decision making is affected by the language in which a given problem is presented (native vs. foreign). In particular, we aim to ask whether the impact of various heuristic biases in decision making is diminished when the problems are presented in a foreign language. To this end, we report four main studies in which more than 700 participants were tested on different types of individual decision making problems. In the first study, we replicated Keysar et al.'s (2012) recent observation regarding the foreign language effect on framing effects related to loss aversion. In the second section, we assessed whether the foreign language effect is present in other types of framing problems that involve psychological accounting biases rather than gain/loss dichotomies. In the third section, we studied the foreign language effect in several key aspects of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. In the fourth study, we assessed the presence of a foreign language effect in the cognitive reflection test, a test that includes logical problems that do not carry emotional connotations. The absence of such an effect in this test suggests that foreign language leads to a reduction of heuristic biases in decision making across a range of decision making situations and provide also some evidence about the boundaries of the phenomenon. We explore several potential factors that may underlie the foreign language effect in decision making.
Rashotte, Judy; Carnevale, F A
The aim of this article is to explore the complex forms of knowledge involved in diagnostic and interventional decision making by comparing the processes in medicine and nursing, including nurse practitioners. Many authors assert that the practice of clinical decision making involves the application of theoretical knowledge (acquired in the classroom and textbooks) as well as research evidence, upon concrete particular cases. This approach draws on various universal principles and algorithms to facilitate the task. On the other hand, others argue that this involves an intuitive form of judgement that is difficult to teach, one that is acquired principally through experience. In an exploration of these issues, this article consists of three sections. A clarification of terms commonly used when discussing decision making is provided in the first section. In the second section, an epistemological analysis of decision making is presented by examining several perspectives and comparing them for their use in the nursing and medical literature. Bunge's epistemological framework for decision making (based on scientific realism) is explored for its fit with the aims of medicine and nursing. The final section presents a discussion of knowledge utilization and decision making as it relates to the implications for the education and ongoing development of nurse practitioners. It is concluded that Donald Schön's conception of reflective practice best characterizes the skillful conduct of clinical decision making.
Rustad, James K; Musselman, Dominique L; Skyler, Jay S; Matheson, Della; Delamater, Alan; Kenyon, Norma S; Cáceda, Ricardo; Nemeroff, Charles B
Decreased treatment adherence in patients with diabetes mellitus type 1 (type 1 DM) may reflect impairments in decision-making and underlying associated deficits in working memory and executive functioning. Other factors, including comorbid major depression, may also interfere with decision-making. The authors sought to review the clinically relevant characteristics of decision-making in type 1 DM by surveying the literature on decision-making by patients with type 1 DM. Deficiencies in decision-making in patients with type 1 DM or their caregivers contribute to treatment nonadherence and poorer metabolic control. Animal models of type 1 DM reveal deficits in hippocampal-dependent memory tasks, which are reversible with insulin. Neurocognitive studies of patients with type 1 DM reveal lowered performance on ability to apply knowledge to solve problems in a new situation and acquired scholarly knowledge, psychomotor efficiency, cognitive flexibility, visual perception, speed of information-processing, and sustained attention. Other factors that might contribute to poor decision-making in patients with type 1 DM, include "hypoglycemia unawareness" and comorbid major depression (given its increased prevalence in type 1 DM). Future studies utilizing novel treatment strategies to help patients with type 1 DM make better decisions about their disease may improve their glycemic control and quality of life, while minimizing the impact of end-organ disease.
Matsuda, Yoshi-Taka; Fujimura, Tomomi; Ueno, Kenichi; Asamizuya, Takeshi; Suzuki, Chisato; Cheng, Kang; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato
Emotional events resulting from a choice influence an individual's subsequent decision making. Although the relationship between emotion and decision making has been widely discussed, previous studies have mainly investigated decision outcomes that can easily be mapped to reward and punishment, including monetary gain/loss, gustatory stimuli, and pain. These studies regard emotion as a modulator of decision making that can be made rationally in the absence of emotions. In our daily lives, however, we often encounter various emotional events that affect decisions by themselves, and mapping the events to a reward or punishment is often not straightforward. In this study, we investigated the neural substrates of how such emotional decision outcomes affect subsequent decision making. By using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we measured brain activities of humans during a stochastic decision-making task in which various emotional pictures were presented as decision outcomes. We found that pleasant pictures differentially activated the midbrain, fusiform gyrus, and parahippocampal gyrus, whereas unpleasant pictures differentially activated the ventral striatum, compared with neutral pictures. We assumed that the emotional decision outcomes affect the subsequent decision by updating the value of the options, a process modeled by reinforcement learning models, and that the brain regions representing the prediction error that drives the reinforcement learning are involved in guiding subsequent decisions. We found that some regions of the striatum and the insula were separately correlated with the prediction error for either pleasant pictures or unpleasant pictures, whereas the precuneus was correlated with prediction errors for both pleasant and unpleasant pictures. PMID:25695644
Lippa, Katherine D; Feufel, Markus A; Robinson, F Eric; Shalin, Valerie L
Despite increasing prominence, little is known about the cognitive processes underlying shared decision making. To investigate these processes, we conceptualize shared decision making as a form of distributed cognition. We introduce a Decision Space Model to identify physical and social influences on decision making. Using field observations and interviews, we demonstrate that patients and physicians in both acute and chronic care consider these influences when identifying the need for a decision, searching for decision parameters, making actionable decisions Based on the distribution of access to information and actions, we then identify four related patterns: physician dominated; physician-defined, patient-made; patient-defined, physician-made; and patient-dominated decisions. Results suggests that (a) decision making is necessarily distributed between physicians and patients, (b) differential access to information and action over time requires participants to transform a distributed task into a shared decision, and (c) adverse outcomes may result from failures to integrate physician and patient reasoning. Our analysis unifies disparate findings in the medical decision-making literature and has implications for improving care and medical training.
Trimble, Michael; Hamilton, Paul
Diagnostic errors are responsible for a significant number of adverse events. Logical reasoning and good decision-making skills are key factors in reducing such errors, but little emphasis has traditionally been placed on how these thought processes occur, and how errors could be minimised. In this article, we explore key cognitive ideas that underpin clinical decision making and suggest that by employing some simple strategies, physicians might be better able to understand how they make decisions and how the process might be optimised.
Prochaska, James O
Decision making is an integral part of the transtheoretical model of behavior change. Stage of change represents a temporal dimension for behavior change and has been the key dimension for integrating principles and processes of change from across leading theories of psychotherapy and behavior change. The decision-making variables representing the pros and cons of changing have been found to have systematic relationships across the stages of change for 50 health-related behaviors. Implications of these patterns of relationships are discussed in the context of helping patients make more effective decisions to decrease health risk behaviors and increase health-enhancing behaviors.
Bates, Russell; Blyuss, Oleg; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Zaikin, Alexey
Similar to intelligent multicellular neural networks controlling human brains, even single cells, surprisingly, are able to make intelligent decisions to classify several external stimuli or to associate them. This happens because of the fact that gene regulatory networks can perform as perceptrons, simple intelligent schemes known from studies on Artificial Intelligence. We study the role of genetic noise in intelligent decision making at the genetic level and show that noise can play a constructive role helping cells to make a proper decision. We show this using the example of a simple genetic classifier able to classify two external stimuli. PMID:25965584
Felenbok, P.; Guerin, J.; Bellenger, R.; Dreux, M.; Fernandez, A.
A multi-object instrument for spectrography in a large field is presented. It is of the arm design as MX or ARGUS. The MEFOS (Meudon-ESO Fiber Optical System) version is built to be used at the ESO 3.60 m prime focus with the triplet corrector. The FIFI (Franco-Italian Fiber Instrument) version, a copy of MEFOS, is shared between the Bologna Observatory and the Paris-Meudon Observatory and will be used, on a visitor basis, at the CFHT prime focus. The instrument carries 30 independent arms with an imaging capability on each arm. It is a modular design with its electronic implemented on each arm. The system is under control of anti-collision software and the whole instrument is driven by an PC/XT-type computer.
Lucas, Blake C; Kazhdan, Michael; Taylor, Russell H
A new data structure is presented for geometrically modeling multi-objects. The model can exhibit elastic and fluid-like behavior to enable interpretability between tasks that require both deformable registration and active contour segmentation. The data structure consists of a label mask, distance field, and springls (a constellation of disconnected triangles). The representation has sub-voxel precision, is parametric, re-meshes, tracks point correspondences, and guarantees no self-intersections, air-gaps, or overlaps between adjacent structures. In this work, we show how to apply existing registration algorithms and active contour segmentation to the data structure; and as a demonstration, the data structure is used to segment cortical and subcortical structures (74 total) in the human brain.
The growing attraction between citizens and educators can form the basis of a fruitful school-community relationship. This new way of connecting, in which large numbers of people meet regularly to talk about school issues and find solutions, goes far beyond blue-ribbon commissions and school-business partnerships. To make the marriage last,…
Government scrutiny and intensified oversight have dramatically changed the landscape of education in recent years. Observers want to know how schools compare, which district is best, which states are spending the most per student on education, whether reforms are making a difference, and why so many students are failing. Some of these questions…
Austill, Chris, Ed.
These activities help high school students develop an understanding of nuclear weapons within the context of human beings making choices. Students learn to evaluate information and to identify the political stand or bias in what they hear and read. To record their own growth and change, students are encouraged to keep a journal. Teachers can…
Dougherty, Michael R.; Thomas, Rick P.
The authors propose a general modeling framework called the general monotone model (GeMM), which allows one to model psychological phenomena that manifest as nonlinear relations in behavior data without the need for making (overly) precise assumptions about functional form. Using both simulated and real data, the authors illustrate that GeMM…
Rocco, Nicola; Nava, Maurizio Bruno
We present some clinical advice to drive the decision process in performing conservative mastectomies. Several factors are taken into consideration to indicate these techniques. First of all, we need to identify patients who need a mastectomy due to the extension of the disease. In this case we suggest assessing patients anthropometric characteristics (breast volume—ptosis), and personal preferences regarding the extension of surgical treatment. Small, medium size, without ptosis or with moderate ptosis can be better served by standard nipple-sparing mastectomy. Large and ptotic breast can be removed and reconstructed performing a skin-reducing mastectomy. Mastectomies cannot replace breast conservation and should be discouraged whenever breast-conserving surgery can be performed with good results. However, in some selected cases, and especially in patients with small breast, conservative mastectomies with contralateral reshape can yield favourable results. PMID:26855911