A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior distributions in such approaches.

Detection of non-classical space-time correlations with a novel type of single-photon camera.

PubMed

Just, Felix; Filipenko, Mykhaylo; Cavanna, Andrea; Michel, Thilo; Gleixner, Thomas; Taheri, Michael; Vallerga, John; Campbell, Michael; Tick, Timo; Anton, Gisela; Chekhova, Maria V; Leuchs, Gerd

2014-07-14

During the last decades, multi-pixel detectors have been developed capable of registering single photons. The newly developed hybrid photon detector camera has a remarkable property that it has not only spatial but also temporal resolution. In this work, we apply this device to the detection of non-classical light from spontaneous parametric down-conversion and use two-photon correlations for the absolute calibration of its quantum efficiency.

Long-range dismount activity classification: LODAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagic, Denis; Peskoe, Jacob; Liu, Fang; Cuevas, Manuel; Freeman, Andrew M.; Rhodes, Bradley J.

2014-06-01

Continuous classification of dismount types (including gender, age, ethnicity) and their activities (such as walking, running) evolving over space and time is challenging. Limited sensor resolution (often exacerbated as a function of platform standoff distance) and clutter from shadows in dense target environments, unfavorable environmental conditions, and the normal properties of real data all contribute to the challenge. The unique and innovative aspect of our approach is a synthesis of multimodal signal processing with incremental non-parametric, hierarchical Bayesian machine learning methods to create a new kind of target classification architecture. This architecture is designed from the ground up to optimally exploit correlations among the multiple sensing modalities (multimodal data fusion) and rapidly and continuously learns (online self-tuning) patterns of distinct classes of dismounts given little a priori information. This increases classification performance in the presence of challenges posed by anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) sensing. To fuse multimodal features, Long-range Dismount Activity Classification (LODAC) develops a novel statistical information theoretic approach for multimodal data fusion that jointly models multimodal data (i.e., a probabilistic model for cross-modal signal generation) and discovers the critical cross-modal correlations by identifying components (features) with maximal mutual information (MI) which is efficiently estimated using non-parametric entropy models. LODAC develops a generic probabilistic pattern learning and classification framework based on a new class of hierarchical Bayesian learning algorithms for efficiently discovering recurring patterns (classes of dismounts) in multiple simultaneous time series (sensor modalities) at multiple levels of feature granularity.

Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation models for ROC analysis.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James; Zou, Kelly H

2006-02-15

A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation model (BMHTM) is developed for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis based on clustered continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. Two special features of this model are that it incorporates non-linear monotone transformations of the outcomes and that multiple correlated outcomes may be analysed. The mean, variance, and transformation components are all modelled parametrically, enabling a wide range of inferences. The general framework is illustrated by focusing on two problems: (1) analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of a covariate-dependent univariate test outcome requiring a Box-Cox transformation within each cluster to map the test outcomes to a common family of distributions; (2) development of an optimal composite diagnostic test using multivariate clustered outcome data. In the second problem, the composite test is estimated using discriminant function analysis and compared to the test derived from logistic regression analysis where the gold standard is a binary outcome. The proposed methodology is illustrated on prostate cancer biopsy data from a multi-centre clinical trial.

Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation models for ROC analysis

PubMed Central

O'Malley, A. James; Zou, Kelly H.

2006-01-01

SUMMARY A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation model (BMHTM) is developed for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis based on clustered continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. Two special features of this model are that it incorporates non-linear monotone transformations of the outcomes and that multiple correlated outcomes may be analysed. The mean, variance, and transformation components are all modelled parametrically, enabling a wide range of inferences. The general framework is illustrated by focusing on two problems: (1) analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of a covariate-dependent univariate test outcome requiring a Box–Cox transformation within each cluster to map the test outcomes to a common family of distributions; (2) development of an optimal composite diagnostic test using multivariate clustered outcome data. In the second problem, the composite test is estimated using discriminant function analysis and compared to the test derived from logistic regression analysis where the gold standard is a binary outcome. The proposed methodology is illustrated on prostate cancer biopsy data from a multi-centre clinical trial. PMID:16217836

A Semi-Parametric Bayesian Mixture Modeling Approach for the Analysis of Judge Mediated Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muckle, Timothy Joseph

2010-01-01

Existing methods for the analysis of ordinal-level data arising from judge ratings, such as the Multi-Facet Rasch model (MFRM, or the so-called Facets model) have been widely used in assessment in order to render fair examinee ability estimates in situations where the judges vary in their behavior or severity. However, this model makes certain…

A Bayesian Alternative for Multi-objective Ecohydrological Model Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Ajami, H.

2015-12-01

Process-based ecohydrological models combine the study of hydrological, physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, which are usually more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological framework. In our study, a formal Bayesian approach is implemented in an ecohydrological model which combines a hydrological model (HyMOD) and a dynamic vegetation model (DVM). Simulations focused on one objective likelihood (Streamflow/LAI) and multi-objective likelihoods (Streamflow and LAI) with different weights are compared. Uniform, weakly informative and strongly informative prior distributions are used in different simulations. The Kullback-leibler divergence (KLD) is used to measure the dis(similarity) between different priors and corresponding posterior distributions to examine the parameter sensitivity. Results show that different prior distributions can strongly influence posterior distributions for parameters, especially when the available data is limited or parameters are insensitive to the available data. We demonstrate differences in optimized parameters and uncertainty limits in different cases based on multi-objective likelihoods vs. single objective likelihoods. We also demonstrate the importance of appropriately defining the weights of objectives in multi-objective calibration according to different data types.

IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steininger, Theo

2018-03-01

IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

SU-G-JeP2-02: A Unifying Multi-Atlas Approach to Electron Density Mapping Using Multi-Parametric MRI for Radiation Treatment Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, S; Tianjin University, Tianjin; Hara, W

Purpose: MRI has a number of advantages over CT as a primary modality for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, one key bottleneck problem still remains, which is the lack of electron density information in MRI. In the work, a reliable method to map electron density is developed by leveraging the differential contrast of multi-parametric MRI. Methods: We propose a probabilistic Bayesian approach for electron density mapping based on T1 and T2-weighted MRI, using multiple patients as atlases. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probabilities: (1) electron density given its image intensity on T1 and T2-weighted MR images, and (2)more » electron density given its geometric location in a reference anatomy. The two sources of information (image intensity and spatial location) are combined into a unifying posterior probability density function using the Bayesian formalism. The mean value of the posterior probability density function provides the estimated electron density. Results: We evaluated the method on 10 head and neck patients and performed leave-one-out cross validation (9 patients as atlases and remaining 1 as test). The proposed method significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 138, compared with 193 for the T1-weighted intensity approach and 261 without density correction. For bone detection (HU>200), the proposed method had an accuracy of 84% and a sensitivity of 73% at specificity of 90% (AUC = 87%). In comparison, the AUC for bone detection is 73% and 50% using the intensity approach and without density correction, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed unifying method provides accurate electron density estimation and bone detection based on multi-parametric MRI of the head with highly heterogeneous anatomy. This could allow for accurate dose calculation and reference image generation for patient setup in MRI-based radiation treatment planning.« less

Quantification of soil water retention parameters using multi-section TDR-waveform analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baviskar, S. M.; Heimovaara, T. J.

2017-06-01

Soil water retention parameters are important for describing flow in variably saturated soils. TDR is one of the standard methods used for determining water content in soil samples. In this study, we present an approach to estimate water retention parameters of a sample which is initially saturated and subjected to an incremental decrease in boundary head causing it to drain in a multi-step fashion. TDR waveforms are measured along the height of the sample at assumed different hydrostatic conditions at daily interval. The cumulative discharge outflow drained from the sample is also recorded. The saturated water content is obtained using volumetric analysis after the final step involved in multi-step drainage. The equation obtained by coupling the unsaturated parametric function and the apparent dielectric permittivity is fitted to a TDR wave propagation forward model. The unsaturated parametric function is used to spatially interpolate the water contents along TDR probe. The cumulative discharge outflow data is fitted with cumulative discharge estimated using the unsaturated parametric function. The weight of water inside the sample estimated at the first and final boundary head in multi-step drainage is fitted with the corresponding weights calculated using unsaturated parametric function. A Bayesian optimization scheme is used to obtain optimized water retention parameters for these different objective functions. This approach can be used for samples with long heights and is especially suitable for characterizing sands with a uniform particle size distribution at low capillary heads.

Estimation for coefficient of variation of an extension of the exponential distribution under type-II censoring scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakoban, Rana A.

2017-08-01

The coefficient of variation [CV] has several applications in applied statistics. So in this paper, we adopt Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches for the estimation of CV under type-II censored data from extension exponential distribution [EED]. The point and interval estimate of the CV are obtained for each of the maximum likelihood and parametric bootstrap techniques. Also the Bayesian approach with the help of MCMC method is presented. A real data set is presented and analyzed, hence the obtained results are used to assess the obtained theoretical results.

Multi-angle backscatter classification and sub-bottom profiling for improved seafloor characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alevizos, Evangelos; Snellen, Mirjam; Simons, Dick; Siemes, Kerstin; Greinert, Jens

2018-06-01

This study applies three classification methods exploiting the angular dependence of acoustic seafloor backscatter along with high resolution sub-bottom profiling for seafloor sediment characterization in the Eckernförde Bay, Baltic Sea Germany. This area is well suited for acoustic backscatter studies due to its shallowness, its smooth bathymetry and the presence of a wide range of sediment types. Backscatter data were acquired using a Seabeam1180 (180 kHz) multibeam echosounder and sub-bottom profiler data were recorded using a SES-2000 parametric sonar transmitting 6 and 12 kHz. The high density of seafloor soundings allowed extracting backscatter layers for five beam angles over a large part of the surveyed area. A Bayesian probability method was employed for sediment classification based on the backscatter variability at a single incidence angle, whereas Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) were applied to the multi-angle layers. The Bayesian approach was used for identifying the optimum number of acoustic classes because cluster validation is carried out prior to class assignment and class outputs are ordinal categorical values. The method is based on the principle that backscatter values from a single incidence angle express a normal distribution for a particular sediment type. The resulting Bayesian classes were well correlated to median grain sizes and the percentage of coarse material. The MLC method uses angular response information from five layers of training areas extracted from the Bayesian classification map. The subsequent PCA analysis is based on the transformation of these five layers into two principal components that comprise most of the data variability. These principal components were clustered in five classes after running an external cluster validation test. In general both methods MLC and PCA, separated the various sediment types effectively, showing good agreement (kappa >0.7) with the Bayesian approach which also correlates well with ground truth data (r2 > 0.7). In addition, sub-bottom data were used in conjunction with the Bayesian classification results to characterize acoustic classes with respect to their geological and stratigraphic interpretation. The joined interpretation of seafloor and sub-seafloor data sets proved to be an efficient approach for a better understanding of seafloor backscatter patchiness and to discriminate acoustically similar classes in different geological/bathymetric settings.

Bayesian Approaches for Model and Multi-mission Satellites Data Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaki, M., , Dr; Forootan, E.; Awange, J.; Kuhn, M.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, data assimilation is formulated as a Bayesian approach that allows one to update model simulations using new incoming observations. This integration is necessary due to the uncertainty in model outputs, which mainly is the result of several drawbacks, e.g., limitations in accounting for the complexity of real-world processes, uncertainties of (unknown) empirical model parameters, and the absence of high resolution (both spatially and temporally) data. Data assimilation, however, requires knowledge of the physical process of a model, which may be either poorly described or entirely unavailable. Therefore, an alternative method is required to avoid this dependency. In this study we present a novel approach which can be used in hydrological applications. A non-parametric framework based on Kalman filtering technique is proposed to improve hydrological model estimates without using a model dynamics. Particularly, we assesse Kalman-Taken formulations that take advantage of the delay coordinate method to reconstruct nonlinear dynamics in the absence of the physical process. This empirical relationship is then used instead of model equations to integrate satellite products with model outputs. We use water storage variables from World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) simulations and update them using data known as the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) and also surface soil moisture data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) over Australia for the period of 2003 to 2011. The performance of the proposed integration method is compared with data obtained from the more traditional assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Square-Root Filter (EnSRF) filtering technique (Khaki et al., 2017), as well as by evaluating them against ground-based soil moisture and groundwater observations within the Murray-Darling Basin.

An approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models for measurement interpretation under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skataric, Maja; Bose, Sandip; Zeroug, Smaine; Tilke, Peter

2017-02-01

It is not uncommon in the field of non-destructive evaluation that multiple measurements encompassing a variety of modalities are available for analysis and interpretation for determining the underlying states of nature of the materials or parts being tested. Despite and sometimes due to the richness of data, significant challenges arise in the interpretation manifested as ambiguities and inconsistencies due to various uncertain factors in the physical properties (inputs), environment, measurement device properties, human errors, and the measurement data (outputs). Most of these uncertainties cannot be described by any rigorous mathematical means, and modeling of all possibilities is usually infeasible for many real time applications. In this work, we will discuss an approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models (HBGM) for the improved interpretation of complex (multi-dimensional) problems with parametric uncertainties that lack usable physical models. In this setting, the input space of the physical properties is specified through prior distributions based on domain knowledge and expertise, which are represented as Gaussian mixtures to model the various possible scenarios of interest for non-destructive testing applications. Forward models are then used offline to generate the expected distribution of the proposed measurements which are used to train a hierarchical Bayesian network. In Bayesian analysis, all model parameters are treated as random variables, and inference of the parameters is made on the basis of posterior distribution given the observed data. Learned parameters of the posterior distribution obtained after the training can therefore be used to build an efficient classifier for differentiating new observed data in real time on the basis of pre-trained models. We will illustrate the implementation of the HBGM approach to ultrasonic measurements used for cement evaluation of cased wells in the oil industry.

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Xiaoqing; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.; Miller, Geoffery L.; Meyer, Philip D.; Kohler, Matthias; Yabusaki, Steve; Wu, Jichun

2014-01-01

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM(ZS)-based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

On uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linde, Niklas; Ginsbourger, David; Irving, James; Nobile, Fabio; Doucet, Arnaud

2017-12-01

Recent advances in sensor technologies, field methodologies, numerical modeling, and inversion approaches have contributed to unprecedented imaging of hydrogeological properties and detailed predictions at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, imaging results and predictions will always remain imprecise, which calls for appropriate uncertainty quantification (UQ). In this paper, we outline selected methodological developments together with pioneering UQ applications in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. The applied mathematics and statistics literature is not easy to penetrate and this review aims at helping hydrogeologists and hydrogeophysicists to identify suitable approaches for UQ that can be applied and further developed to their specific needs. To bypass the tremendous computational costs associated with forward UQ based on full-physics simulations, we discuss proxy-modeling strategies and multi-resolution (Multi-level Monte Carlo) methods. We consider Bayesian inversion for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space problems and discuss how Sequential Monte Carlo may become a practical alternative. We also describe strategies to account for forward modeling errors in Bayesian inversion. Finally, we consider hydrogeophysical inversion, where petrophysical uncertainty is often ignored leading to overconfident parameter estimation. The high parameter and data dimensions encountered in hydrogeological and geophysical problems make UQ a complicated and important challenge that has only been partially addressed to date.

Spectral decompositions of multiple time series: a Bayesian non-parametric approach.

PubMed

Macaro, Christian; Prado, Raquel

2014-01-01

We consider spectral decompositions of multiple time series that arise in studies where the interest lies in assessing the influence of two or more factors. We write the spectral density of each time series as a sum of the spectral densities associated to the different levels of the factors. We then use Whittle's approximation to the likelihood function and follow a Bayesian non-parametric approach to obtain posterior inference on the spectral densities based on Bernstein-Dirichlet prior distributions. The prior is strategically important as it carries identifiability conditions for the models and allows us to quantify our degree of confidence in such conditions. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for posterior inference within this class of frequency-domain models is presented.We illustrate the approach by analyzing simulated and real data via spectral one-way and two-way models. In particular, we present an analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) brain responses measured in individuals who participated in a designed experiment to study pain perception in humans.

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

Discovering variable fractional orders of advection-dispersion equations from field data using multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Guofei; Perdikaris, Paris; Cai, Wei; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-11-01

The fractional advection-dispersion equation (FADE) can describe accurately the solute transport in groundwater but its fractional order has to be determined a priori. Here, we employ multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization to obtain the fractional order under various conditions, and we obtain more accurate results compared to previously published data. Moreover, the present method is very efficient as we use different levels of resolution to construct a stochastic surrogate model and quantify its uncertainty. We consider two different problem set ups. In the first set up, we obtain variable fractional orders of one-dimensional FADE, considering both synthetic and field data. In the second set up, we identify constant fractional orders of two-dimensional FADE using synthetic data. We employ multi-resolution simulations using two-level and three-level Gaussian process regression models to construct the surrogates.

Constraining geostatistical models with hydrological data to improve prediction realism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demyanov, V.; Rojas, T.; Christie, M.; Arnold, D.

2012-04-01

Geostatistical models reproduce spatial correlation based on the available on site data and more general concepts about the modelled patters, e.g. training images. One of the problem of modelling natural systems with geostatistics is in maintaining realism spatial features and so they agree with the physical processes in nature. Tuning the model parameters to the data may lead to geostatistical realisations with unrealistic spatial patterns, which would still honour the data. Such model would result in poor predictions, even though although fit the available data well. Conditioning the model to a wider range of relevant data provide a remedy that avoid producing unrealistic features in spatial models. For instance, there are vast amounts of information about the geometries of river channels that can be used in describing fluvial environment. Relations between the geometrical channel characteristics (width, depth, wave length, amplitude, etc.) are complex and non-parametric and are exhibit a great deal of uncertainty, which is important to propagate rigorously into the predictive model. These relations can be described within a Bayesian approach as multi-dimensional prior probability distributions. We propose a way to constrain multi-point statistics models with intelligent priors obtained from analysing a vast collection of contemporary river patterns based on previously published works. We applied machine learning techniques, namely neural networks and support vector machines, to extract multivariate non-parametric relations between geometrical characteristics of fluvial channels from the available data. An example demonstrates how ensuring geological realism helps to deliver more reliable prediction of a subsurface oil reservoir in a fluvial depositional environment.

Multiparametric, Longitudinal Optical Coherence Tomography Imaging Reveals Acute Injury and Chronic Recovery in Experimental Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Srinivasan, Vivek J.; Mandeville, Emiri T.; Can, Anil; Blasi, Francesco; Climov, Mihail; Daneshmand, Ali; Lee, Jeong Hyun; Yu, Esther; Radhakrishnan, Harsha; Lo, Eng H.; Sakadžić, Sava; Eikermann-Haerter, Katharina; Ayata, Cenk

2013-01-01

Progress in experimental stroke and translational medicine could be accelerated by high-resolution in vivo imaging of disease progression in the mouse cortex. Here, we introduce optical microscopic methods that monitor brain injury progression using intrinsic optical scattering properties of cortical tissue. A multi-parametric Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) platform for longitudinal imaging of ischemic stroke in mice, through thinned-skull, reinforced cranial window surgical preparations, is described. In the acute stages, the spatiotemporal interplay between hemodynamics and cell viability, a key determinant of pathogenesis, was imaged. In acute stroke, microscopic biomarkers for eventual infarction, including capillary non-perfusion, cerebral blood flow deficiency, altered cellular scattering, and impaired autoregulation of cerebral blood flow, were quantified and correlated with histology. Additionally, longitudinal microscopy revealed remodeling and flow recovery after one week of chronic stroke. Intrinsic scattering properties serve as reporters of acute cellular and vascular injury and recovery in experimental stroke. Multi-parametric OCT represents a robust in vivo imaging platform to comprehensively investigate these properties. PMID:23940761

A Comparison of Japan and U.K. SF-6D Health-State Valuations Using a Non-Parametric Bayesian Method.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A

2015-08-01

There is interest in the extent to which valuations of health may differ between different countries and cultures, but few studies have compared preference values of health states obtained in different countries. We sought to estimate and compare two directly elicited valuations for SF-6D health states between the Japan and U.K. general adult populations using Bayesian methods. We analysed data from two SF-6D valuation studies where, using similar standard gamble protocols, values for 241 and 249 states were elicited from representative samples of the Japan and U.K. general adult populations, respectively. We estimate a function applicable across both countries that explicitly accounts for the differences between them, and is estimated using data from both countries. The results suggest that differences in SF-6D health-state valuations between the Japan and U.K. general populations are potentially important. The magnitude of these country-specific differences in health-state valuation depended, however, in a complex way on the levels of individual dimensions. The new Bayesian non-parametric method is a powerful approach for analysing data from multiple nationalities or ethnic groups, to understand the differences between them and potentially to estimate the underlying utility functions more efficiently.

Predictive uncertainty analysis of plume distribution for geological carbon sequestration using sparse-grid Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Zhang, G.

2013-12-01

Because of the extensive computational burden, parametric uncertainty analyses are rarely conducted for geological carbon sequestration (GCS) process based multi-phase models. The difficulty of predictive uncertainty analysis for the CO2 plume migration in realistic GCS models is not only due to the spatial distribution of the caprock and reservoir (i.e. heterogeneous model parameters), but also because the GCS optimization estimation problem has multiple local minima due to the complex nonlinear multi-phase (gas and aqueous), and multi-component (water, CO2, salt) transport equations. The geological model built by Doughty and Pruess (2004) for the Frio pilot site (Texas) was selected and assumed to represent the 'true' system, which was composed of seven different facies (geological units) distributed among 10 layers. We chose to calibrate the permeabilities of these facies. Pressure and gas saturation values from this true model were then extracted and used as observations for subsequent model calibration. Random noise was added to the observations to approximate realistic field conditions. Each simulation of the model lasts about 2 hours. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid stochastic collocation method. This surrogate response surface global optimization algorithm is firstly used to calibrate the model parameters, then prediction uncertainty of the CO2 plume position is quantified due to the propagation from parametric uncertainty in the numerical experiments, which is also compared to the actual plume from the 'true' model. Results prove that the approach is computationally efficient for multi-modal optimization and prediction uncertainty quantification for computationally expensive simulation models. Both our inverse methodology and findings can be broadly applicable to GCS in heterogeneous storage formations.

Bayesian-information-gap decision theory with an application to CO 2 sequestration

DOE PAGES

O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2015-09-04

Decisions related to subsurface engineering problems such as groundwater management, fossil fuel production, and geologic carbon sequestration are frequently challenging because of an overabundance of uncertainties (related to conceptualizations, parameters, observations, etc.). Because of the importance of these problems to agriculture, energy, and the climate (respectively), good decisions that are scientifically defensible must be made despite the uncertainties. We describe a general approach to making decisions for challenging problems such as these in the presence of severe uncertainties that combines probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. The approach uses Bayesian sampling to assess parametric uncertainty and Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to addressmore » model inadequacy. The combined approach also resolves an issue that frequently arises when applying Bayesian methods to real-world engineering problems related to the enumeration of possible outcomes. In the case of zero non-probabilistic uncertainty, the method reduces to a Bayesian method. Lastly, to illustrate the approach, we apply it to a site-selection decision for geologic CO 2 sequestration.« less

Model Comparison of Bayesian Semiparametric and Parametric Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Xia, Ye-Mao; Pan, Jun-Hao; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

Structural equation models have wide applications. One of the most important issues in analyzing structural equation models is model comparison. This article proposes a Bayesian model comparison statistic, namely the "L[subscript nu]"-measure for both semiparametric and parametric structural equation models. For illustration purposes, we consider…

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

PubMed

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

2000-06-01

It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies behavioral data in pain experiments on freely moving mice subjected to moderate heat delivered by an electric bulb. Summary of new or breakthrough ideas: (1) A new method to estimate probability distribution for measurement of nonlinear hemodynamics of brain from a multi- modal neuronal data. This is the first time that such an idea is tried, to our knowledge. (2) Breakthrough in improvement of time resolution of fMRI signals using (1) above.

Quantum Lidar - Remote Sensing at the Ultimate Limit

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

of Lossy Propaga- tion of Non-Classical Dual-Mode Entangled Photon States 57 34 Decay of Coherence for a N00N State (N=10) as a Function of...resolution could be beaten by exploiting entangled photons [Boto2000, Kok2001]. This effect is now universally known as quantum super-resolution. We...spontaneous parametric down conversion (SPDC), optical parametric amplifier (OPA), optical parametric oscillator (OPO), and entangled - photon Laser (EPL

Robust optimization of supersonic ORC nozzle guide vanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bufi, Elio A.; Cinnella, Paola

2017-03-01

An efficient Robust Optimization (RO) strategy is developed for the design of 2D supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle turbine expanders. The dense gas effects are not-negligible for this application and they are taken into account describing the thermodynamics by means of the Peng-Robinson-Stryjek-Vera equation of state. The design methodology combines an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) loop based on a Bayesian kriging model of the system response to the uncertain parameters, used to approximate statistics (mean and variance) of the uncertain system output, a CFD solver, and a multi-objective non-dominated sorting algorithm (NSGA), also based on a Kriging surrogate of the multi-objective fitness function, along with an adaptive infill strategy for surrogate enrichment at each generation of the NSGA. The objective functions are the average and variance of the isentropic efficiency. The blade shape is parametrized by means of a Free Form Deformation (FFD) approach. The robust optimal blades are compared to the baseline design (based on the Method of Characteristics) and to a blade obtained by means of a deterministic CFD-based optimization.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Maximizing the Biochemical Resolving Power of Fluorescence Microscopy

PubMed Central

Esposito, Alessandro; Popleteeva, Marina; Venkitaraman, Ashok R.

2013-01-01

Most recent advances in fluorescence microscopy have focused on achieving spatial resolutions below the diffraction limit. However, the inherent capability of fluorescence microscopy to non-invasively resolve different biochemical or physical environments in biological samples has not yet been formally described, because an adequate and general theoretical framework is lacking. Here, we develop a mathematical characterization of the biochemical resolution in fluorescence detection with Fisher information analysis. To improve the precision and the resolution of quantitative imaging methods, we demonstrate strategies for the optimization of fluorescence lifetime, fluorescence anisotropy and hyperspectral detection, as well as different multi-dimensional techniques. We describe optimized imaging protocols, provide optimization algorithms and describe precision and resolving power in biochemical imaging thanks to the analysis of the general properties of Fisher information in fluorescence detection. These strategies enable the optimal use of the information content available within the limited photon-budget typically available in fluorescence microscopy. This theoretical foundation leads to a generalized strategy for the optimization of multi-dimensional optical detection, and demonstrates how the parallel detection of all properties of fluorescence can maximize the biochemical resolving power of fluorescence microscopy, an approach we term Hyper Dimensional Imaging Microscopy (HDIM). Our work provides a theoretical framework for the description of the biochemical resolution in fluorescence microscopy, irrespective of spatial resolution, and for the development of a new class of microscopes that exploit multi-parametric detection systems. PMID:24204821

Analysing child mortality in Nigeria with geoadditive discrete-time survival models.

PubMed

Adebayo, Samson B; Fahrmeir, Ludwig

2005-03-15

Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In developing countries, mortality rates are not only influenced by socio-economic, demographic and health variables but they also vary considerably across regions and districts. In this paper, we analysed child mortality in Nigeria with flexible geoadditive discrete-time survival models. This class of models allows us to measure small-area district-specific spatial effects simultaneously with possibly non-linear or time-varying effects of other factors. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The application is based on the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Our method assesses effects at a high level of temporal and spatial resolution not available with traditional parametric models, and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce child mortality by improving socio-economic and public health conditions. Copyright (c) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pilot study for supervised target detection applied to spatially registered multiparametric MRI in order to non-invasively score prostate cancer.

PubMed

Mayer, Rulon; Simone, Charles B; Skinner, William; Turkbey, Baris; Choykey, Peter

2018-03-01

Gleason Score (GS) is a validated predictor of prostate cancer (PCa) disease progression and outcomes. GS from invasive needle biopsies suffers from significant inter-observer variability and possible sampling error, leading to underestimating disease severity ("underscoring") and can result in possible complications. A robust non-invasive image-based approach is, therefore, needed. Use spatially registered multi-parametric MRI (MP-MRI), signatures, and supervised target detection algorithms (STDA) to non-invasively GS PCa at the voxel level. This study retrospectively analyzed 26 MP-MRI from The Cancer Imaging Archive. The MP-MRI (T2, Diffusion Weighted, Dynamic Contrast Enhanced) were spatially registered to each other, combined into stacks, and stitched together to form hypercubes. Multi-parametric (or multi-spectral) signatures derived from a training set of registered MP-MRI were transformed using statistics-based Whitening-Dewhitening (WD). Transformed signatures were inserted into STDA (having conical decision surfaces) applied to registered MP-MRI determined the tumor GS. The MRI-derived GS was quantitatively compared to the pathologist's assessment of the histology of sectioned whole mount prostates from patients who underwent radical prostatectomy. In addition, a meta-analysis of 17 studies of needle biopsy determined GS with confusion matrices and was compared to the MRI-determined GS. STDA and histology determined GS are highly correlated (R = 0.86, p < 0.02). STDA more accurately determined GS and reduced GS underscoring of PCa relative to needle biopsy as summarized by meta-analysis (p < 0.05). This pilot study found registered MP-MRI, STDA, and WD transforms of signatures shows promise in non-invasively GS PCa and reducing underscoring with high spatial resolution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins having different climate and catchment characteristics. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be stable with limited ensemble members and viable for practical uses.

A program for the Bayesian Neural Network in the ROOT framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Jiahang; Huang, Run-Sheng; Lee, Shih-Chang

2011-12-01

We present a Bayesian Neural Network algorithm implemented in the TMVA package (Hoecker et al., 2007 [1]), within the ROOT framework (Brun and Rademakers, 1997 [2]). Comparing to the conventional utilization of Neural Network as discriminator, this new implementation has more advantages as a non-parametric regression tool, particularly for fitting probabilities. It provides functionalities including cost function selection, complexity control and uncertainty estimation. An example of such application in High Energy Physics is shown. The algorithm is available with ROOT release later than 5.29. Program summaryProgram title: TMVA-BNN Catalogue identifier: AEJX_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJX_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: BSD license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 5094 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1,320,987 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Computer: Any computer system or cluster with C++ compiler and UNIX-like operating system Operating system: Most UNIX/Linux systems. The application programs were thoroughly tested under Fedora and Scientific Linux CERN. Classification: 11.9 External routines: ROOT package version 5.29 or higher ( http://root.cern.ch) Nature of problem: Non-parametric fitting of multivariate distributions Solution method: An implementation of Neural Network following the Bayesian statistical interpretation. Uses Laplace approximation for the Bayesian marginalizations. Provides the functionalities of automatic complexity control and uncertainty estimation. Running time: Time consumption for the training depends substantially on the size of input sample, the NN topology, the number of training iterations, etc. For the example in this manuscript, about 7 min was used on a PC/Linux with 2.0 GHz processors.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

Phylogenetic relationships of South American lizards of the genus Stenocercus (Squamata: Iguania): A new approach using a general mixture model for gene sequence data.

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Schulte, James A; Cadle, John E

2006-04-01

The South American iguanian lizard genus Stenocercus includes 54 species occurring mostly in the Andes and adjacent lowland areas from northern Venezuela and Colombia to central Argentina at elevations of 0-4000m. Small taxon or character sampling has characterized all phylogenetic analyses of Stenocercus, which has long been recognized as sister taxon to the Tropidurus Group. In this study, we use mtDNA sequence data to perform phylogenetic analyses that include 32 species of Stenocercus and 12 outgroup taxa. Monophyly of this genus is strongly supported by maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Evolutionary relationships within Stenocercus are further analyzed with a Bayesian implementation of a general mixture model, which accommodates variability in the pattern of evolution across sites. These analyses indicate a basal split of Stenocercus into two clades, one of which receives very strong statistical support. In addition, we test previous hypotheses using non-parametric and parametric statistical methods, and provide a phylogenetic classification for Stenocercus.

Does multi-functionality affect technical efficiency? A non-parametric analysis of the Scottish dairy industry.

PubMed

Barnes, A P

2006-09-01

Recent policy changes within the Common Agricultural Policy have led to a shift from a solely production-led agriculture towards the promotion of multi-functionality. Conversely, the removal of production-led supports would indicate that an increased concentration on production efficiencies would seem a critical strategy for a country's future competitiveness. This paper explores the relationship between the 'multi-functional' farming attitude desired by policy makers and its effect on technical efficiency within Scottish dairy farming. Technical efficiency scores are calculated by applying the non-parametric data envelopment analysis technique and then measured against causes of inefficiency. Amongst these explanatory factors is a constructed score of multi-functionality. This research finds that, amongst other factors, a multi-functional attitude has a significant positive effect on technical efficiency. Consequently, this seems to validate the promotion of a multi-functional approach to farming currently being championed by policy-makers.

A Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm for White Matter Parameter Estimation from Compressed Multi-shell Diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2017-09-01

We propose a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for improved estimation of white matter fiber parameters from compressed (under-sampled q-space) multi-shell diffusion MRI data. The multi-shell data is represented in a dictionary form using a non-monoexponential decay model of diffusion, based on continuous gamma distribution of diffusivities. The fiber volume fractions with predefined orientations, which are the unknown parameters, form the dictionary weights. These unknown parameters are estimated with a linear un-mixing framework, using a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm. A localized learning of hyperparameters at each voxel and for each possible fiber orientations improves the parameter estimation. Our experiments using synthetic data from the ISBI 2012 HARDI reconstruction challenge and in-vivo data from the Human Connectome Project demonstrate the improvements.

Component isolation for multi-component signal analysis using a non-parametric gaussian latent feature model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Peng, Zhike; Dong, Xingjian; Zhang, Wenming; Clifton, David A.

2018-03-01

A challenge in analysing non-stationary multi-component signals is to isolate nonlinearly time-varying signals especially when they are overlapped in time and frequency plane. In this paper, a framework integrating time-frequency analysis-based demodulation and a non-parametric Gaussian latent feature model is proposed to isolate and recover components of such signals. The former aims to remove high-order frequency modulation (FM) such that the latter is able to infer demodulated components while simultaneously discovering the number of the target components. The proposed method is effective in isolating multiple components that have the same FM behavior. In addition, the results show that the proposed method is superior to generalised demodulation with singular-value decomposition-based method, parametric time-frequency analysis with filter-based method and empirical model decomposition base method, in recovering the amplitude and phase of superimposed components.

A Bayesian account of quantum histories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marlow, Thomas

2006-05-15

We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistentmore » with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory.« less

Combined non-parametric and parametric approach for identification of time-variant systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dziedziech, Kajetan; Czop, Piotr; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Uhl, Tadeusz

2018-03-01

Identification of systems, structures and machines with variable physical parameters is a challenging task especially when time-varying vibration modes are involved. The paper proposes a new combined, two-step - i.e. non-parametric and parametric - modelling approach in order to determine time-varying vibration modes based on input-output measurements. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) vibration modes from multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) non-parametric system representation are extracted in the first step with the use of time-frequency wavelet-based filters. The second step involves time-varying parametric representation of extracted modes with the use of recursive linear autoregressive-moving-average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) models. The combined approach is demonstrated using system identification analysis based on the experimental mass-varying MDOF frame-like structure subjected to random excitation. The results show that the proposed combined method correctly captures the dynamics of the analysed structure, using minimum a priori information on the model.

Tau-REx: A new look at the retrieval of exoplanetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldmann, Ingo

2014-11-01

The field of exoplanetary spectroscopy is as fast moving as it is new. With an increasing amount of space and ground based instruments obtaining data on a large set of extrasolar planets we are indeed entering the era of exoplanetary characterisation. Permanently at the edge of instrument feasibility, it is as important as it is difficult to find the most optimal and objective methodologies to analysing and interpreting current data. This is particularly true for smaller and fainter Earth and Super-Earth type planets.For low to mid signal to noise (SNR) observations, we are prone to two sources of biases: 1) Prior selection in the data reduction and analysis; 2) Prior constraints on the spectral retrieval. In Waldmann et al. (2013), Morello et al. (2014) and Waldmann (2012, 2014) we have shown a prior-free approach to data analysis based on non-parametric machine learning techniques. Following these approaches we will present a new take on the spectral retrieval of extrasolar planets. Tau-REx (tau-retrieval of exoplanets) is a new line-by-line, atmospheric retrieval framework. In the past the decision on what opacity sources go into an atmospheric model were usually user defined. Manual input can lead to model biases and poor convergence of the atmospheric model to the data. In Tau-REx we have set out to solve this. Through custom built pattern recognition software, Tau-REx is able to rapidly identify the most likely atmospheric opacities from a large number of possible absorbers/emitters (ExoMol or HiTran data bases) and non-parametrically constrain the prior space for the Bayesian retrieval. Unlike other (MCMC based) techniques, Tau-REx is able to fully integrate high-dimensional log-likelihood spaces and to calculate the full Bayesian Evidence of the atmospheric models. We achieve this through a combination of Nested Sampling and a high degree of code parallelisation. This allows for an exact and unbiased Bayesian model selection and a fully mapping of potential model-data degeneracies. Together with non-parametric data de-trending of exoplanetary spectra, we can reach an un- precedented level of objectivity in our atmospheric characterisation of these foreign worlds.

Propagation of population pharmacokinetic information using a Bayesian approach: comparison with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokoumetzidis, Aristides; Aarons, Leon

2005-08-01

We investigated the propagation of population pharmacokinetic information across clinical studies by applying Bayesian techniques. The aim was to summarize the population pharmacokinetic estimates of a study in appropriate statistical distributions in order to use them as Bayesian priors in consequent population pharmacokinetic analyses. Various data sets of simulated and real clinical data were fitted with WinBUGS, with and without informative priors. The posterior estimates of fittings with non-informative priors were used to build parametric informative priors and the whole procedure was carried on in a consecutive manner. The posterior distributions of the fittings with informative priors where compared to those of the meta-analysis fittings of the respective combinations of data sets. Good agreement was found, for the simulated and experimental datasets when the populations were exchangeable, with the posterior distribution from the fittings with the prior to be nearly identical to the ones estimated with meta-analysis. However, when populations were not exchangeble an alternative parametric form for the prior, the natural conjugate prior, had to be used in order to have consistent results. In conclusion, the results of a population pharmacokinetic analysis may be summarized in Bayesian prior distributions that can be used consecutively with other analyses. The procedure is an alternative to meta-analysis and gives comparable results. It has the advantage that it is faster than the meta-analysis, due to the large datasets used with the latter and can be performed when the data included in the prior are not actually available.

Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2009-05-01

Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block bootstrap (MABB) ) based on the explicit objective functions of minimizing the relative bias and relative root mean square error in estimating the storage capacity of the reservoir. The optimal parameter set of the hybrid model is obtained based on the search over a multi- dimensional parameter space (involving simultaneous exploration of the parametric (PAR(1)) as well as the non-parametric (MABB) components). This is achieved using the efficient evolutionary search based optimization tool namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm - II (NSGA-II). This approach helps in reducing the drudgery involved in the process of manual selection of the hybrid model, in addition to predicting the basic summary statistics dependence structure, marginal distribution and water-use characteristics accurately. The proposed optimization framework is used to model the multi-season streamflows of River Beaver and River Weber of USA. In case of both the rivers, the proposed GA-based hybrid model yields a much better prediction of the storage capacity (where simultaneous exploration of both parametric and non-parametric components is done) when compared with the MLE-based hybrid models (where the hybrid model selection is done in two stages, thus probably resulting in a sub-optimal model). This framework can be further extended to include different linear/non-linear hybrid stochastic models at other temporal and spatial scales as well.

QFT Multi-Input, Multi-Output Design with Non-Diagonal, Non-Square Compensation Matrices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.; Henderson, D. K.

1996-01-01

A technique for obtaining a non-diagonal compensator for the control of a multi-input, multi-output plant is presented. The technique, which uses Quantitative Feedback Theory, provides guaranteed stability and performance robustness in the presence of parametric uncertainty. An example is given involving the lateral-directional control of an uncertain model of a high-performance fighter aircraft in which redundant control effectors are in evidence, i.e. more control effectors than output variables are used.

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of 3D lattice scaffolds for computer-aided biomedical applications.

PubMed

Gorguluarslan, Recep M; Choi, Seung-Kyum; Saldana, Christopher J

2017-07-01

A methodology is proposed for uncertainty quantification and validation to accurately predict the mechanical response of lattice structures used in the design of scaffolds. Effective structural properties of the scaffolds are characterized using a developed multi-level stochastic upscaling process that propagates the quantified uncertainties at strut level to the lattice structure level. To obtain realistic simulation models for the stochastic upscaling process and minimize the experimental cost, high-resolution finite element models of individual struts were reconstructed from the micro-CT scan images of lattice structures which are fabricated by selective laser melting. The upscaling method facilitates the process of determining homogenized strut properties to reduce the computational cost of the detailed simulation model for the scaffold. Bayesian Information Criterion is utilized to quantify the uncertainties with parametric distributions based on the statistical data obtained from the reconstructed strut models. A systematic validation approach that can minimize the experimental cost is also developed to assess the predictive capability of the stochastic upscaling method used at the strut level and lattice structure level. In comparison with physical compression test results, the proposed methodology of linking the uncertainty quantification with the multi-level stochastic upscaling method enabled an accurate prediction of the elastic behavior of the lattice structure with minimal experimental cost by accounting for the uncertainties induced by the additive manufacturing process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties in watershed water quality modeling: A formal Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi

2018-06-01

Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

The Lifecycle of Bayesian Network Models Developed for Multi-Source Signature Assessment of Nuclear Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gastelum, Zoe N.; White, Amanda M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2013-06-04

The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information such as text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files, to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. These models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources in order to help assess a country’s nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, state-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country’s likelihoodmore » to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model assists non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.« less

Propagation of stage measurement uncertainties to streamflow time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horner, Ivan; Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Branger, Flora; McMillan, Hilary

2016-04-01

Streamflow uncertainties due to stage measurements errors are generally overlooked in the promising probabilistic approaches that have emerged in the last decade. We introduce an original error model for propagating stage uncertainties through a stage-discharge rating curve within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. The method takes into account both rating curve (parametric errors and structural errors) and stage uncertainty (systematic and non-systematic errors). Practical ways to estimate the different types of stage errors are also presented: (1) non-systematic errors due to instrument resolution and precision and non-stationary waves and (2) systematic errors due to gauge calibration against the staff gauge. The method is illustrated at a site where the rating-curve-derived streamflow can be compared with an accurate streamflow reference. The agreement between the two time series is overall satisfying. Moreover, the quantification of uncertainty is also satisfying since the streamflow reference is compatible with the streamflow uncertainty intervals derived from the rating curve and the stage uncertainties. Illustrations from other sites are also presented. Results are much contrasted depending on the site features. In some cases, streamflow uncertainty is mainly due to stage measurement errors. The results also show the importance of discriminating systematic and non-systematic stage errors, especially for long term flow averages. Perspectives for improving and validating the streamflow uncertainty estimates are eventually discussed.

Optimizing Within-Subject Experimental Designs for jICA of Multi-Channel ERP and fMRI

PubMed Central

Mangalathu-Arumana, Jain; Liebenthal, Einat; Beardsley, Scott A.

2018-01-01

Joint independent component analysis (jICA) can be applied within subject for fusion of multi-channel event-related potentials (ERP) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), to measure brain function at high spatiotemporal resolution (Mangalathu-Arumana et al., 2012). However, the impact of experimental design choices on jICA performance has not been systematically studied. Here, the sensitivity of jICA for recovering neural sources in individual data was evaluated as a function of imaging SNR, number of independent representations of the ERP/fMRI data, relationship between instantiations of the joint ERP/fMRI activity (linear, non-linear, uncoupled), and type of sources (varying parametrically and non-parametrically across representations of the data), using computer simulations. Neural sources were simulated with spatiotemporal and noise attributes derived from experimental data. The best performance, maximizing both cross-modal data fusion and the separation of brain sources, occurred with a moderate number of representations of the ERP/fMRI data (10–30), as in a mixed block/event related experimental design. Importantly, the type of relationship between instantiations of the ERP/fMRI activity, whether linear, non-linear or uncoupled, did not in itself impact jICA performance, and was accurately recovered in the common profiles (i.e., mixing coefficients). Thus, jICA provides an unbiased way to characterize the relationship between ERP and fMRI activity across brain regions, in individual data, rendering it potentially useful for characterizing pathological conditions in which neurovascular coupling is adversely affected. PMID:29410611

A Bayesian goodness of fit test and semiparametric generalization of logistic regression with measurement data.

PubMed

Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

2013-06-01

Logistic regression is a popular tool for risk analysis in medical and population health science. With continuous response data, it is common to create a dichotomous outcome for logistic regression analysis by specifying a threshold for positivity. Fitting a linear regression to the nondichotomized response variable assuming a logistic sampling model for the data has been empirically shown to yield more efficient estimates of odds ratios than ordinary logistic regression of the dichotomized endpoint. We illustrate that risk inference is not robust to departures from the parametric logistic distribution. Moreover, the model assumption of proportional odds is generally not satisfied when the condition of a logistic distribution for the data is violated, leading to biased inference from a parametric logistic analysis. We develop novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology for testing goodness of fit of parametric logistic regression with continuous measurement data. The testing procedures hold for any cutoff threshold and our approach simultaneously provides the ability to perform semiparametric risk estimation. Bayes factors are calculated using the Savage-Dickey ratio for testing the null hypothesis of logistic regression versus a semiparametric generalization. We propose a fully Bayesian and a computationally efficient empirical Bayesian approach to testing, and we present methods for semiparametric estimation of risks, relative risks, and odds ratios when parametric logistic regression fails. Theoretical results establish the consistency of the empirical Bayes test. Results from simulated data show that the proposed approach provides accurate inference irrespective of whether parametric assumptions hold or not. Evaluation of risk factors for obesity shows that different inferences are derived from an analysis of a real data set when deviations from a logistic distribution are permissible in a flexible semiparametric framework. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Parametric vs. non-parametric statistics of low resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA).

PubMed

Thatcher, R W; North, D; Biver, C

2005-01-01

This study compared the relative statistical sensitivity of non-parametric and parametric statistics of 3-dimensional current sources as estimated by the EEG inverse solution Low Resolution Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA). One would expect approximately 5% false positives (classification of a normal as abnormal) at the P < .025 level of probability (two tailed test) and approximately 1% false positives at the P < .005 level. EEG digital samples (2 second intervals sampled 128 Hz, 1 to 2 minutes eyes closed) from 43 normal adult subjects were imported into the Key Institute's LORETA program. We then used the Key Institute's cross-spectrum and the Key Institute's LORETA output files (*.lor) as the 2,394 gray matter pixel representation of 3-dimensional currents at different frequencies. The mean and standard deviation *.lor files were computed for each of the 2,394 gray matter pixels for each of the 43 subjects. Tests of Gaussianity and different transforms were computed in order to best approximate a normal distribution for each frequency and gray matter pixel. The relative sensitivity of parametric vs. non-parametric statistics were compared using a "leave-one-out" cross validation method in which individual normal subjects were withdrawn and then statistically classified as being either normal or abnormal based on the remaining subjects. Log10 transforms approximated Gaussian distribution in the range of 95% to 99% accuracy. Parametric Z score tests at P < .05 cross-validation demonstrated an average misclassification rate of approximately 4.25%, and range over the 2,394 gray matter pixels was 27.66% to 0.11%. At P < .01 parametric Z score cross-validation false positives were 0.26% and ranged from 6.65% to 0% false positives. The non-parametric Key Institute's t-max statistic at P < .05 had an average misclassification error rate of 7.64% and ranged from 43.37% to 0.04% false positives. The nonparametric t-max at P < .01 had an average misclassification rate of 6.67% and ranged from 41.34% to 0% false positives of the 2,394 gray matter pixels for any cross-validated normal subject. In conclusion, adequate approximation to Gaussian distribution and high cross-validation can be achieved by the Key Institute's LORETA programs by using a log10 transform and parametric statistics, and parametric normative comparisons had lower false positive rates than the non-parametric tests.

A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the molecular clock based on Bayesian ensembles of phylogenies

PubMed Central

Antoneli, Fernando; Passos, Fernando M.; Lopes, Luciano R.

2018-01-01

Divergence date estimates are central to understand evolutionary processes and depend, in the case of molecular phylogenies, on tests of molecular clocks. Here we propose two non-parametric tests of strict and relaxed molecular clocks built upon a framework that uses the empirical cumulative distribution (ECD) of branch lengths obtained from an ensemble of Bayesian trees and well known non-parametric (one-sample and two-sample) Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test. In the strict clock case, the method consists in using the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to directly test if the phylogeny is clock-like, in other words, if it follows a Poisson law. The ECD is computed from the discretized branch lengths and the parameter λ of the expected Poisson distribution is calculated as the average branch length over the ensemble of trees. To compensate for the auto-correlation in the ensemble of trees and pseudo-replication we take advantage of thinning and effective sample size, two features provided by Bayesian inference MCMC samplers. Finally, it is observed that tree topologies with very long or very short branches lead to Poisson mixtures and in this case we propose the use of the two-sample KS test with samples from two continuous branch length distributions, one obtained from an ensemble of clock-constrained trees and the other from an ensemble of unconstrained trees. Moreover, in this second form the test can also be applied to test for relaxed clock models. The use of a statistically equivalent ensemble of phylogenies to obtain the branch lengths ECD, instead of one consensus tree, yields considerable reduction of the effects of small sample size and provides a gain of power. PMID:29300759

MODEL-FREE MULTI-PROBE LENSING RECONSTRUCTION OF CLUSTER MASS PROFILES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Umetsu, Keiichi

2013-05-20

Lens magnification by galaxy clusters induces characteristic spatial variations in the number counts of background sources, amplifying their observed fluxes and expanding the area of sky, the net effect of which, known as magnification bias, depends on the intrinsic faint-end slope of the source luminosity function. The bias is strongly negative for red galaxies, dominated by the geometric area distortion, whereas it is mildly positive for blue galaxies, enhancing the blue counts toward the cluster center. We generalize the Bayesian approach of Umetsu et al. for reconstructing projected cluster mass profiles, by incorporating multiple populations of background sources for magnification-biasmore » measurements and combining them with complementary lens-distortion measurements, effectively breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and improving the statistical precision of cluster mass measurements. The approach can be further extended to include strong-lensing projected mass estimates, thus allowing for non-parametric absolute mass determinations in both the weak and strong regimes. We apply this method to our recent CLASH lensing measurements of MACS J1206.2-0847, and demonstrate how combining multi-probe lensing constraints can improve the reconstruction of cluster mass profiles. This method will also be useful for a stacked lensing analysis, combining all lensing-related effects in the cluster regime, for a definitive determination of the averaged mass profile.« less

Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

2017-04-01

Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars and, finally, assess the probability of occurrence of lahars of different volumes. The information utilized to parametrize the BBNs includes: (1) datasets of lahar observations; (2) numerical modelling of tephra fallout and PDCs; and (3) literature data. The BBN framework provides an opportunity to quantitatively combine these different types of evidence and use them to derive a rational approach to lahar forecasting. Lastly, we couple the BBN assessments with a shallow-water physical model for lahar propagation in order to attach probabilities to the simulated hazard footprints. We develop our methodology at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), an explosive volcano prone to rain-triggered lahars or debris flows whether right after an eruption or during inter-eruptive periods. Accounting for the variability in tephra-fallout and dense-PDC propagation and the main geomorphological features of the catchments around Somma-Vesuvius, the areas most likely of forming medium-large lahars are the flanks of the volcano and the Sarno mountains towards the east.

Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) Code and Application to WASP-43b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph; Cubillos, Patricio; Bowman, Oliver; Rojo, Patricio; Stemm, Madison; Lust, Nathaniel B.; Challener, Ryan; Foster, Austin James; Foster, Andrew S.; Blumenthal, Sarah D.; Bruce, Dylan

2016-01-01

We present a new open-source Bayesian radiative-transfer framework, Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART, https://github.com/exosports/BART), and its application to WASP-43b. BART initializes a model for the atmospheric retrieval calculation, generates thousands of theoretical model spectra using parametrized pressure and temperature profiles and line-by-line radiative-transfer calculation, and employs a statistical package to compare the models with the observations. It consists of three self-sufficient modules available to the community under the reproducible-research license, the Thermochemical Equilibrium Abundances module (TEA, https://github.com/dzesmin/TEA, Blecic et al. 2015}, the radiative-transfer module (Transit, https://github.com/exosports/transit), and the Multi-core Markov-chain Monte Carlo statistical module (MCcubed, https://github.com/pcubillos/MCcubed, Cubillos et al. 2015). We applied BART on all available WASP-43b secondary eclipse data from the space- and ground-based observations constraining the temperature-pressure profile and molecular abundances of the dayside atmosphere of WASP-43b. This work was supported by NASA Planetary Atmospheres grant NNX12AI69G and NASA Astrophysics Data Analysis Program grant NNX13AF38G. JB holds a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship.

Discriminative Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Classification.

PubMed

Akhtar, Naveed; Shafait, Faisal; Mian, Ajmal

2016-12-01

We propose a Bayesian approach to learn discriminative dictionaries for sparse representation of data. The proposed approach infers probability distributions over the atoms of a discriminative dictionary using a finite approximation of Beta Process. It also computes sets of Bernoulli distributions that associate class labels to the learned dictionary atoms. This association signifies the selection probabilities of the dictionary atoms in the expansion of class-specific data. Furthermore, the non-parametric character of the proposed approach allows it to infer the correct size of the dictionary. We exploit the aforementioned Bernoulli distributions in separately learning a linear classifier. The classifier uses the same hierarchical Bayesian model as the dictionary, which we present along the analytical inference solution for Gibbs sampling. For classification, a test instance is first sparsely encoded over the learned dictionary and the codes are fed to the classifier. We performed experiments for face and action recognition; and object and scene-category classification using five public datasets and compared the results with state-of-the-art discriminative sparse representation approaches. Experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach consistently outperforms the existing approaches.

Bayesian modelling of the emission spectrum of the Joint European Torus Lithium Beam Emission Spectroscopy system.

PubMed

Kwak, Sehyun; Svensson, J; Brix, M; Ghim, Y-C

2016-02-01

A Bayesian model of the emission spectrum of the JET lithium beam has been developed to infer the intensity of the Li I (2p-2s) line radiation and associated uncertainties. The detected spectrum for each channel of the lithium beam emission spectroscopy system is here modelled by a single Li line modified by an instrumental function, Bremsstrahlung background, instrumental offset, and interference filter curve. Both the instrumental function and the interference filter curve are modelled with non-parametric Gaussian processes. All free parameters of the model, the intensities of the Li line, Bremsstrahlung background, and instrumental offset, are inferred using Bayesian probability theory with a Gaussian likelihood for photon statistics and electronic background noise. The prior distributions of the free parameters are chosen as Gaussians. Given these assumptions, the intensity of the Li line and corresponding uncertainties are analytically available using a Bayesian linear inversion technique. The proposed approach makes it possible to extract the intensity of Li line without doing a separate background subtraction through modulation of the Li beam.

Reflective lens-free imaging on high-density silicon microelectrode arrays for monitoring and evaluation of in vitro cardiac contractility

PubMed Central

Pauwelyn, Thomas; Stahl, Richard; Mayo, Lakyn; Zheng, Xuan; Lambrechts, Andy; Janssens, Stefan; Lagae, Liesbet; Reumers, Veerle; Braeken, Dries

2018-01-01

The high rate of drug attrition caused by cardiotoxicity is a major challenge for drug development. Here, we developed a reflective lens-free imaging (RLFI) approach to non-invasively record in vitro cell deformation in cardiac monolayers with high temporal (169 fps) and non-reconstructed spatial resolution (352 µm) over a field-of-view of maximally 57 mm2. The method is compatible with opaque surfaces and silicon-based devices. Further, we demonstrated that the system can detect the impairment of both contractility and fast excitation waves in cardiac monolayers. Additionally, the RLFI device was implemented on a CMOS-based microelectrode array to retrieve multi-parametric information of cardiac cells, thereby offering more in-depth analysis of drug-induced (cardiomyopathic) effects for preclinical cardiotoxicity screening applications. PMID:29675322

[Linkage analysis of susceptibility loci in 2 target chromosomes in pedigrees with paranoid schizophrenia and undifferentiated schizophrenia].

PubMed

Zeng, Li-ping; Hu, Zheng-mao; Mu, Li-li; Mei, Gui-sen; Lu, Xiu-ling; Zheng, Yong-jun; Li, Pei-jian; Zhang, Ying-xue; Pan, Qian; Long, Zhi-gao; Dai, He-ping; Zhang, Zhuo-hua; Xia, Jia-hui; Zhao, Jing-ping; Xia, Kun

2011-06-01

To investigate the relationship of susceptibility loci in chromosomes 1q21-25 and 6p21-25 and schizophrenia subtypes in Chinese population. A genomic scan and parametric and non-parametric analyses were performed on 242 individuals from 36 schizophrenia pedigrees, including 19 paranoid schizophrenia and 17 undifferentiated schizophrenia pedigrees, from Henan province of China using 5 microsatellite markers in the chromosome region 1q21-25 and 8 microsatellite markers in the chromosome region 6p21-25, which were the candidates of previous studies. All affected subjects were diagnosed and typed according to the criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revised (DSM-IV-TR; American Psychiatric Association, 2000). All subjects signed informed consent. In chromosome 1, parametric analysis under the dominant inheritance mode of all 36 pedigrees showed that the maximum multi-point heterogeneity Log of odds score method (HLOD) score was 1.33 (α = 0.38). The non-parametric analysis and the single point and multi-point nonparametric linkage (NPL) scores suggested linkage at D1S484, D1S2878, and D1S196. In the 19 paranoid schizophrenias pedigrees, linkage was not observed for any of the 5 markers. In the 17 undifferentiated schizophrenia pedigrees, the multi-point NPL score was 1.60 (P= 0.0367) at D1S484. The single point NPL score was 1.95(P= 0.0145) and the multi-point NPL score was 2.39 (P= 0.0041) at D1S2878. Additionally, the multi-point NPL score was 1.74 (P= 0.0255) at D1S196. These same three loci showed suggestive linkage during the integrative analysis of all 36 pedigrees. In chromosome 6, parametric linkage analysis under the dominant and recessive inheritance and the non-parametric linkage analysis of all 36 pedigrees and the 17 undifferentiated schizophrenia pedigrees, linkage was not observed for any of the 8 markers. In the 19 paranoid schizophrenias pedigrees, parametric analysis showed that under recessive inheritance mode the maximum single-point HLOD score was 1.26 (α = 0.40) and the multi-point HLOD was 1.12 (α = 0.38) at D6S289 in the chromosome 6p23. In nonparametric analysis, the single-point NPL score was 1.52 (P= 0.0402) and the multi-point NPL score was 1.92 (P= 0.0206) at D6S289. Susceptibility genes correlated with undifferentiated schizophrenia pedigrees from D1S484, D1S2878, D1S196 loci, and those correlated with paranoid schizophrenia pedigrees from D6S289 locus are likely present in chromosome regions 1q23.3 and 1q24.2, and chromosome region 6p23, respectively.

A Bayesian approach for estimating under-reported dengue incidence with a focus on non-linear associations between climate and dengue in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sharmin, Sifat; Glass, Kathryn; Viennet, Elvina; Harley, David

2018-04-01

Determining the relation between climate and dengue incidence is challenging due to under-reporting of disease and consequent biased incidence estimates. Non-linear associations between climate and incidence compound this. Here, we introduce a modelling framework to estimate dengue incidence from passive surveillance data while incorporating non-linear climate effects. We estimated the true number of cases per month using a Bayesian generalised linear model, developed in stages to adjust for under-reporting. A semi-parametric thin-plate spline approach was used to quantify non-linear climate effects. The approach was applied to data collected from the national dengue surveillance system of Bangladesh. The model estimated that only 2.8% (95% credible interval 2.7-2.8) of all cases in the capital Dhaka were reported through passive case reporting. The optimal mean monthly temperature for dengue transmission is 29℃ and average monthly rainfall above 15 mm decreases transmission. Our approach provides an estimate of true incidence and an understanding of the effects of temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

DAFNE: A Matlab toolbox for Bayesian multi-source remote sensing and ancillary data fusion, with application to flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Pasquariello, Guido

2018-03-01

High-resolution, remotely sensed images of the Earth surface have been proven to be of help in producing detailed flood maps, thanks to their synoptic overview of the flooded area and frequent revisits. However, flood scenarios can be complex situations, requiring the integration of different data in order to provide accurate and robust flood information. Several processing approaches have been recently proposed to efficiently combine and integrate heterogeneous information sources. In this paper, we introduce DAFNE, a Matlab®-based, open source toolbox, conceived to produce flood maps from remotely sensed and other ancillary information, through a data fusion approach. DAFNE is based on Bayesian Networks, and is composed of several independent modules, each one performing a different task. Multi-temporal and multi-sensor data can be easily handled, with the possibility of following the evolution of an event through multi-temporal output flood maps. Each DAFNE module can be easily modified or upgraded to meet different user needs. The DAFNE suite is presented together with an example of its application.

Bayesian Treed Multivariate Gaussian Process with Adaptive Design: Application to a Carbon Capture Unit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konomi, Bledar A.; Karagiannis, Georgios; Sarkar, Avik

2014-05-16

Computer experiments (numerical simulations) are widely used in scientific research to study and predict the behavior of complex systems, which usually have responses consisting of a set of distinct outputs. The computational cost of the simulations at high resolution are often expensive and become impractical for parametric studies at different input values. To overcome these difficulties we develop a Bayesian treed multivariate Gaussian process (BTMGP) as an extension of the Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) in order to model and evaluate a multivariate process. A suitable choice of covariance function and the prior distributions facilitates the different Markov chain Montemore » Carlo (MCMC) movements. We utilize this model to sequentially sample the input space for the most informative values, taking into account model uncertainty and expertise gained. A simulation study demonstrates the use of the proposed method and compares it with alternative approaches. We apply the sequential sampling technique and BTMGP to model the multiphase flow in a full scale regenerator of a carbon capture unit. The application presented in this paper is an important tool for research into carbon dioxide emissions from thermal power plants.« less

A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: Linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Ponciano, José Miguel

2017-11-22

Using a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin (2013) dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors' work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly "biology-free" their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin's GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin (2013)'s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors' inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Civil Engineering Applications of Ground Penetrating Radar Recent Advances @ the ELEDIA Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salucci, Marco; Tenuti, Lorenza; Nardin, Cristina; Oliveri, Giacomo; Viani, Federico; Rocca, Paolo; Massa, Andrea

2014-05-01

The application of non-destructive testing and evaluation (NDT/NDE) methodologies in civil engineering has raised a growing interest during the last years because of its potential impact in several different scenarios. As a consequence, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) technologies have been widely adopted as an instrument for the inspection of the structural stability of buildings and for the detection of cracks and voids. In this framework, the development and validation of GPR algorithms and methodologies represents one of the most active research areas within the ELEDIA Research Center of the University of Trento. More in detail, great efforts have been devoted towards the development of inversion techniques based on the integration of deterministic and stochastic search algorithms with multi-focusing strategies. These approaches proved to be effective in mitigating the effects of both nonlinearity and ill-posedness of microwave imaging problems, which represent the well-known issues arising in GPR inverse scattering formulations. More in detail, a regularized multi-resolution approach based on the Inexact Newton Method (INM) has been recently applied to subsurface prospecting, showing a remarkable advantage over a single-resolution implementation [1]. Moreover, the use of multi-frequency or frequency-hopping strategies to exploit the information coming from GPR data collected in time domain and transformed into its frequency components has been proposed as well. In this framework, the effectiveness of the multi-resolution multi-frequency techniques has been proven on synthetic data generated with numerical models such as GprMax [2]. The application of inversion algorithms based on Bayesian Compressive Sampling (BCS) [3][4] to GPR is currently under investigation, as well, in order to exploit their capability to provide satisfactory reconstructions in presence of single and multiple sparse scatterers [3][4]. Furthermore, multi-scaling approaches exploiting level-set-based optimization have been developed for the qualitative reconstruction of multiple and disconnected homogeneous scatterers [5]. Finally, the real-time detection and classification of subsurface scatterers has been investigated by means of learning-by-examples (LBE) techniques, such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) [6]. Acknowledgment - This work was partially supported by COST Action TU1208 'Civil Engineering Applications of Ground Penetrating Radar' References [1] M. Salucci, D. Sartori, N. Anselmi, A. Randazzo, G. Oliveri, and A. Massa, 'Imaging Buried Objects within the Second-Order Born Approximation through a Multiresolution Regularized Inexact-Newton Method', 2013 International Symposium on Electromagnetic Theory (EMTS), (Hiroshima, Japan), May 20-24 2013 (invited). [2] A. Giannopoulos, 'Modelling ground penetrating radar by GprMax', Construct. Build. Mater., vol. 19, no. 10, pp.755 -762 2005 [3] L. Poli, G. Oliveri, P. Rocca, and A. Massa, "Bayesian compressive sensing approaches for the reconstruction of two-dimensional sparse scatterers under TE illumination," IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, vol. 51, no. 5, pp. 2920-2936, May. 2013. [4] L. Poli, G. Oliveri, and A. Massa, "Imaging sparse metallic cylinders through a Local Shape Function Bayesian Compressive Sensing approach," Journal of Optical Society of America A, vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 1261-1272, 2013. [5] M. Benedetti, D. Lesselier, M. Lambert, and A. Massa, "Multiple shapes reconstruction by means of multi-region level sets," IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, vol. 48, no. 5, pp. 2330-2342, May 2010. [6] L. Lizzi, F. Viani, P. Rocca, G. Oliveri, M. Benedetti and A. Massa, "Three-dimensional real-time localization of subsurface objects - From theory to experimental validation," 2009 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, vol. 2, pp. II-121-II-124, 12-17 July 2009.

A Non-Parametric Approach for the Activation Detection of Block Design fMRI Simulated Data Using Self-Organizing Maps and Support Vector Machine.

PubMed

Bahrami, Sheyda; Shamsi, Mousa

2017-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a popular method to probe the functional organization of the brain using hemodynamic responses. In this method, volume images of the entire brain are obtained with a very good spatial resolution and low temporal resolution. However, they always suffer from high dimensionality in the face of classification algorithms. In this work, we combine a support vector machine (SVM) with a self-organizing map (SOM) for having a feature-based classification by using SVM. Then, a linear kernel SVM is used for detecting the active areas. Here, we use SOM for feature extracting and labeling the datasets. SOM has two major advances: (i) it reduces dimension of data sets for having less computational complexity and (ii) it is useful for identifying brain regions with small onset differences in hemodynamic responses. Our non-parametric model is compared with parametric and non-parametric methods. We use simulated fMRI data sets and block design inputs in this paper and consider the contrast to noise ratio (CNR) value equal to 0.6 for simulated datasets. fMRI simulated dataset has contrast 1-4% in active areas. The accuracy of our proposed method is 93.63% and the error rate is 6.37%.

Significance testing of clinical data using virus dynamics models with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method: application to emergence of lamivudine-resistant hepatitis B virus.

PubMed Central

Burroughs, N J; Pillay, D; Mutimer, D

1999-01-01

Bayesian analysis using a virus dynamics model is demonstrated to facilitate hypothesis testing of patterns in clinical time-series. Our Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation demonstrates that the viraemia time-series observed in two sets of hepatitis B patients on antiviral (lamivudine) therapy, chronic carriers and liver transplant patients, are significantly different, overcoming clinical trial design differences that question the validity of non-parametric tests. We show that lamivudine-resistant mutants grow faster in transplant patients than in chronic carriers, which probably explains the differences in emergence times and failure rates between these two sets of patients. Incorporation of dynamic models into Bayesian parameter analysis is of general applicability in medical statistics. PMID:10643081

Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

2015-12-01

Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

Multi-locus phylogeny of dolphins in the subfamily Lissodelphininae: character synergy improves phylogenetic resolution

PubMed Central

Harlin-Cognato, April D; Honeycutt, Rodney L

2006-01-01

Background Dolphins of the genus Lagenorhynchus are anti-tropically distributed in temperate to cool waters. Phylogenetic analyses of cytochrome b sequences have suggested that the genus is polyphyletic; however, many relationships were poorly resolved. In this study, we present a combined-analysis phylogenetic hypothesis for Lagenorhynchus and members of the subfamily Lissodelphininae, which is derived from two nuclear and two mitochondrial data sets and the addition of 34 individuals representing 9 species. In addition, we characterize with parsimony and Bayesian analyses the phylogenetic utility and interaction of characters with statistical measures, including the utility of highly consistent (non-homoplasious) characters as a conservative measure of phylogenetic robustness. We also explore the effects of removing sources of character conflict on phylogenetic resolution. Results Overall, our study provides strong support for the monophyly of the subfamily Lissodelphininae and the polyphyly of the genus Lagenorhynchus. In addition, the simultaneous parsimony analysis resolved and/or improved resolution for 12 nodes including: (1) L. albirostris, L. acutus; (2) L. obscurus and L. obliquidens; and (3) L. cruciger and L. australis. In addition, the Bayesian analysis supported the monophyly of the Cephalorhynchus, and resolved ambiguities regarding the relationship of L. australis/L. cruciger to other members of the genus Lagenorhynchus. The frequency of highly consistent characters varied among data partitions, but the rate of evolution was consistent within data partitions. Although the control region was the greatest source of character conflict, removal of this data partition impeded phylogenetic resolution. Conclusion The simultaneous analysis approach produced a more robust phylogenetic hypothesis for Lagenorhynchus than previous studies, thus supporting a phylogenetic approach employing multiple data partitions that vary in overall rate of evolution. Even in cases where there was apparent conflict among characters, our data suggest a synergistic interaction in the simultaneous analysis, and speak against a priori exclusion of data because of potential conflicts, primarily because phylogenetic results can be less robust. For example, the removal of the control region, the putative source of character conflict, produced spurious results with inconsistencies among and within topologies from parsimony and Bayesian analyses. PMID:17078887

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inference of Parametric Dictionaries for Sparse Bayesian Approximations

PubMed Central

Chaspari, Theodora; Tsiartas, Andreas; Tsilifis, Panagiotis; Narayanan, Shrikanth

2016-01-01

Parametric dictionaries can increase the ability of sparse representations to meaningfully capture and interpret the underlying signal information, such as encountered in biomedical problems. Given a mapping function from the atom parameter space to the actual atoms, we propose a sparse Bayesian framework for learning the atom parameters, because of its ability to provide full posterior estimates, take uncertainty into account and generalize on unseen data. Inference is performed with Markov Chain Monte Carlo, that uses block sampling to generate the variables of the Bayesian problem. Since the parameterization of dictionary atoms results in posteriors that cannot be analytically computed, we use a Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs framework, according to which variables with closed-form posteriors are generated with the Gibbs sampler, while the remaining ones with the Metropolis Hastings from appropriate candidate-generating densities. We further show that the corresponding Markov Chain is uniformly ergodic ensuring its convergence to a stationary distribution independently of the initial state. Results on synthetic data and real biomedical signals indicate that our approach offers advantages in terms of signal reconstruction compared to previously proposed Steepest Descent and Equiangular Tight Frame methods. This paper demonstrates the ability of Bayesian learning to generate parametric dictionaries that can reliably represent the exemplar data and provides the foundation towards inferring the entire variable set of the sparse approximation problem for signal denoising, adaptation and other applications. PMID:28649173

A gradient-based model parametrization using Bernstein polynomials in Bayesian inversion of surface wave dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosselin, Jeremy M.; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.; Quijano, Jorge E.; Molnar, Sheri; Dettmer, Jan

2017-10-01

This paper develops and applies a Bernstein-polynomial parametrization to efficiently represent general, gradient-based profiles in nonlinear geophysical inversion, with application to ambient-noise Rayleigh-wave dispersion data. Bernstein polynomials provide a stable parametrization in that small perturbations to the model parameters (basis-function coefficients) result in only small perturbations to the geophysical parameter profile. A fully nonlinear Bayesian inversion methodology is applied to estimate shear wave velocity (VS) profiles and uncertainties from surface wave dispersion data extracted from ambient seismic noise. The Bayesian information criterion is used to determine the appropriate polynomial order consistent with the resolving power of the data. Data error correlations are accounted for in the inversion using a parametric autoregressive model. The inversion solution is defined in terms of marginal posterior probability profiles for VS as a function of depth, estimated using Metropolis-Hastings sampling with parallel tempering. This methodology is applied to synthetic dispersion data as well as data processed from passive array recordings collected on the Fraser River Delta in British Columbia, Canada. Results from this work are in good agreement with previous studies, as well as with co-located invasive measurements. The approach considered here is better suited than `layered' modelling approaches in applications where smooth gradients in geophysical parameters are expected, such as soil/sediment profiles. Further, the Bernstein polynomial representation is more general than smooth models based on a fixed choice of gradient type (e.g. power-law gradient) because the form of the gradient is determined objectively by the data, rather than by a subjective parametrization choice.

Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other,…

Integrated modeling for parametric evaluation of smart x-ray optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dell'Agostino, S.; Riva, M.; Spiga, D.; Basso, S.; Civitani, Marta

2014-08-01

This work is developed in the framework of AXYOM project, which proposes to study the application of a system of piezoelectric actuators to grazing-incidence X-ray telescope optic prototypes: thin glass or plastic foils, in order to increase their angular resolution. An integrated optomechanical model has been set up to evaluate the performances of X-ray optics under deformation induced by Piezo Actuators. Parametric evaluation has been done looking at different number and position of actuators to optimize the outcome. Different evaluations have also been done over the actuator types, considering Flexible Piezoceramic, Multi Fiber Composites piezo actuators, and PVDF.

A Non-parametric Cutout Index for Robust Evaluation of Identified Proteins*

PubMed Central

Serang, Oliver; Paulo, Joao; Steen, Hanno; Steen, Judith A.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a novel, automated method for evaluating sets of proteins identified using mass spectrometry. The remaining peptide-spectrum match score distributions of protein sets are compared to an empirical absent peptide-spectrum match score distribution, and a Bayesian non-parametric method reminiscent of the Dirichlet process is presented to accurately perform this comparison. Thus, for a given protein set, the process computes the likelihood that the proteins identified are correctly identified. First, the method is used to evaluate protein sets chosen using different protein-level false discovery rate (FDR) thresholds, assigning each protein set a likelihood. The protein set assigned the highest likelihood is used to choose a non-arbitrary protein-level FDR threshold. Because the method can be used to evaluate any protein identification strategy (and is not limited to mere comparisons of different FDR thresholds), we subsequently use the method to compare and evaluate multiple simple methods for merging peptide evidence over replicate experiments. The general statistical approach can be applied to other types of data (e.g. RNA sequencing) and generalizes to multivariate problems. PMID:23292186

Integrating ecosystems measurements from multiple eddy-covariance sites to a simple model of ecosystem process - Are there possibilities for a uniform model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Launiainen, Samuli; Mäkelä, Annikki

2014-05-01

Biogeochemical models quantify the material and energy flux exchanges between biosphere, atmosphere and soil, however there is still considerable uncertainty underpinning model structure and parametrization. The increasing availability of data from of multiple sources provides useful information for model calibration and validation at different space and time scales. We calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model PRELES to data from multiple sites. In this work we had the following objective: to compare a multi-site calibration and site-specific calibrations, in order to test if PRELES is a model of general applicability, and to test how well one parameterization can predict ecosystem fluxes. Model calibration and evaluation were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 9 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study; half dataset was used for model calibrations and half for the comparative analyses. 10 BCs were performed; the model was independently calibrated for each of the nine sites (site-specific calibrations) and a multi-site calibration was achieved using the data from all the sites in one BC. Then 9 BMCs were carried out, one for each site, using output from the multi-site and the site-specific versions of PRELES. Similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. Not surprisingly, the joint posterior distribution achieved through the multi-site calibration was characterized by lower uncertainty, because more data were involved in the calibration process. No significant differences were encountered in the prediction of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES, and after BMC, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Despite being a simple model, PRELES provided good estimates of GPP and ET; only for one site PRELES multi-site version underestimated water fluxes. Our study implies convergence of GPP and water processes in boreal zone to the extent that their plausible prediction is possible with a simple model using global parameterization.

The Role of Parametric Assumptions in Adaptive Bayesian Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alcala-Quintana, Rocio; Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2004-01-01

Variants of adaptive Bayesian procedures for estimating the 5% point on a psychometric function were studied by simulation. Bias and standard error were the criteria to evaluate performance. The results indicated a superiority of (a) uniform priors, (b) model likelihood functions that are odd symmetric about threshold and that have parameter…

Multi-class segmentation of neuronal electron microscopy images using deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khobragade, Nivedita; Agarwal, Chirag

2018-03-01

Study of connectivity of neural circuits is an essential step towards a better understanding of functioning of the nervous system. With the recent improvement in imaging techniques, high-resolution and high-volume images are being generated requiring automated segmentation techniques. We present a pixel-wise classification method based on Bayesian SegNet architecture. We carried out multi-class segmentation on serial section Transmission Electron Microscopy (ssTEM) images of Drosophila third instar larva ventral nerve cord, labeling the four classes of neuron membranes, neuron intracellular space, mitochondria and glia / extracellular space. Bayesian SegNet was trained using 256 ssTEM images of 256 x 256 pixels and tested on 64 different ssTEM images of the same size, from the same serial stack. Due to high class imbalance, we used a class-balanced version of Bayesian SegNet by re-weighting each class based on their relative frequency. We achieved an overall accuracy of 93% and a mean class accuracy of 88% for pixel-wise segmentation using this encoder-decoder approach. On evaluating the segmentation results using similarity metrics like SSIM and Dice Coefficient, we obtained scores of 0.994 and 0.886 respectively. Additionally, we used the network trained using the 256 ssTEM images of Drosophila third instar larva for multi-class labeling of ISBI 2012 challenge ssTEM dataset.

Analysis of the Bayesian Cramér-Rao lower bound in astrometry. Studying the impact of prior information in the location of an object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echeverria, Alex; Silva, Jorge F.; Mendez, Rene A.; Orchard, Marcos

2016-10-01

Context. The best precision that can be achieved to estimate the location of a stellar-like object is a topic of permanent interest in the astrometric community. Aims: We analyze bounds for the best position estimation of a stellar-like object on a CCD detector array in a Bayesian setting where the position is unknown, but where we have access to a prior distribution. In contrast to a parametric setting where we estimate a parameter from observations, the Bayesian approach estimates a random object (I.e., the position is a random variable) from observations that are statistically dependent on the position. Methods: We characterize the Bayesian Cramér-Rao (CR) that bounds the minimum mean square error (MMSE) of the best estimator of the position of a point source on a linear CCD-like detector, as a function of the properties of detector, the source, and the background. Results: We quantify and analyze the increase in astrometric performance from the use of a prior distribution of the object position, which is not available in the classical parametric setting. This gain is shown to be significant for various observational regimes, in particular in the case of faint objects or when the observations are taken under poor conditions. Furthermore, we present numerical evidence that the MMSE estimator of this problem tightly achieves the Bayesian CR bound. This is a remarkable result, demonstrating that all the performance gains presented in our analysis can be achieved with the MMSE estimator. Conclusions: The Bayesian CR bound can be used as a benchmark indicator of the expected maximum positional precision of a set of astrometric measurements in which prior information can be incorporated. This bound can be achieved through the conditional mean estimator, in contrast to the parametric case where no unbiased estimator precisely reaches the CR bound.

Coincidence detection of spatially correlated photon pairs with a monolithic time-resolving detector array.

PubMed

Unternährer, Manuel; Bessire, Bänz; Gasparini, Leonardo; Stoppa, David; Stefanov, André

2016-12-12

We demonstrate coincidence measurements of spatially entangled photons by means of a multi-pixel based detection array. The sensor, originally developed for positron emission tomography applications, is a fully digital 8×16 silicon photomultiplier array allowing not only photon counting but also per-pixel time stamping of the arrived photons with an effective resolution of 265 ps. Together with a frame rate of 500 kfps, this property exceeds the capabilities of conventional charge-coupled device cameras which have become of growing interest for the detection of transversely correlated photon pairs. The sensor is used to measure a second-order correlation function for various non-collinear configurations of entangled photons generated by spontaneous parametric down-conversion. The experimental results are compared to theory.

Ultrasound-aided Multi-parametric Photoacoustic Microscopy of the Mouse Brain.

PubMed

Ning, Bo; Sun, Naidi; Cao, Rui; Chen, Ruimin; Kirk Shung, K; Hossack, John A; Lee, Jin-Moo; Zhou, Qifa; Hu, Song

2015-12-21

High-resolution quantitative imaging of cerebral oxygen metabolism in mice is crucial for understanding brain functions and formulating new strategies to treat neurological disorders, but remains a challenge. Here, we report on our newly developed ultrasound-aided multi-parametric photoacoustic microscopy (PAM), which enables simultaneous quantification of the total concentration of hemoglobin (CHb), the oxygen saturation of hemoglobin (sO2), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) at the microscopic level and through the intact mouse skull. The three-dimensional skull and vascular anatomies delineated by the dual-contrast (i.e., ultrasonic and photoacoustic) system provide important guidance for dynamically focused contour scan and vessel orientation-dependent correction of CBF, respectively. Moreover, bi-directional raster scan allows determining the direction of blood flow in individual vessels. Capable of imaging all three hemodynamic parameters at the same spatiotemporal scale, our ultrasound-aided PAM fills a critical gap in preclinical neuroimaging and lays the foundation for high-resolution mapping of the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2)-a quantitative index of cerebral oxygen metabolism. This technical innovation is expected to shed new light on the mechanism and treatment of a broad spectrum of neurological disorders, including Alzheimer's disease and ischemic stroke.

A non-parametric postprocessor for bias-correcting multi-model ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun

2010-05-01

Operational forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables often contain large uncertainties, for which ensemble techniques are increasingly used. However, the utility of ensemble forecasts depends on the unbiasedness of the forecast probabilities. We describe a technique for quantifying and removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables, intended for use in operational forecasting. The technique makes no a priori assumptions about the distributional form of the variables, which is often unknown or difficult to model parametrically. The aim is to estimate the conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) of the observed variable given a (possibly biased) real-time ensemble forecast from one or several forecasting systems (multi-model ensembles). The technique is based on Bayesian optimal linear estimation of indicator variables, and is analogous to indicator cokriging (ICK) in geostatistics. By developing linear estimators for the conditional expectation of the observed variable at many thresholds, ICK provides a discrete approximation of the full ccdf. Since ICK minimizes the conditional error variance of the indicator expectation at each threshold, it effectively minimizes the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) when infinitely many thresholds are employed. However, the ensemble members used as predictors in ICK, and other bias-correction techniques, are often highly cross-correlated, both within and between models. Thus, we propose an orthogonal transform of the predictors used in ICK, which is analogous to using their principal components in the linear system of equations. This leads to a well-posed problem in which a minimum number of predictors are used to provide maximum information content in terms of the total variance explained. The technique is used to bias-correct precipitation ensemble forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), for which independent validation results are presented. Extension to multimodel ensembles from the NCEP GFS and Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) systems is also proposed.

Automated Assessment of Disease Progression in Acute Myeloid Leukemia by Probabilistic Analysis of Flow Cytometry Data

PubMed Central

Rajwa, Bartek; Wallace, Paul K.; Griffiths, Elizabeth A.; Dundar, Murat

2017-01-01

Objective Flow cytometry (FC) is a widely acknowledged technology in diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and has been indispensable in determining progression of the disease. Although FC plays a key role as a post-therapy prognosticator and evaluator of therapeutic efficacy, the manual analysis of cytometry data is a barrier to optimization of reproducibility and objectivity. This study investigates the utility of our recently introduced non-parametric Bayesian framework in accurately predicting the direction of change in disease progression in AML patients using FC data. Methods The highly flexible non-parametric Bayesian model based on the infinite mixture of infinite Gaussian mixtures is used for jointly modeling data from multiple FC samples to automatically identify functionally distinct cell populations and their local realizations. Phenotype vectors are obtained by characterizing each sample by the proportions of recovered cell populations, which are in turn used to predict the direction of change in disease progression for each patient. Results We used 200 diseased and non-diseased immunophenotypic panels for training and tested the system with 36 additional AML cases collected at multiple time points. The proposed framework identified the change in direction of disease progression with accuracies of 90% (9 out of 10) for relapsing cases and 100% (26 out of 26) for the remaining cases. Conclusions We believe that these promising results are an important first step towards the development of automated predictive systems for disease monitoring and continuous response evaluation. Significance Automated measurement and monitoring of therapeutic response is critical not only for objective evaluation of disease status prognosis but also for timely assessment of treatment strategies. PMID:27416585

Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Methods for Genomic Selection of Traits with Additive and Epistatic Genetic Architectures

PubMed Central

Howard, Réka; Carriquiry, Alicia L.; Beavis, William D.

2014-01-01

Parametric and nonparametric methods have been developed for purposes of predicting phenotypes. These methods are based on retrospective analyses of empirical data consisting of genotypic and phenotypic scores. Recent reports have indicated that parametric methods are unable to predict phenotypes of traits with known epistatic genetic architectures. Herein, we review parametric methods including least squares regression, ridge regression, Bayesian ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), Bayesian LASSO, best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes C, and Bayes Cπ. We also review nonparametric methods including Nadaraya-Watson estimator, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, support vector machine regression, and neural networks. We assess the relative merits of these 14 methods in terms of accuracy and mean squared error (MSE) using simulated genetic architectures consisting of completely additive or two-way epistatic interactions in an F2 population derived from crosses of inbred lines. Each simulated genetic architecture explained either 30% or 70% of the phenotypic variability. The greatest impact on estimates of accuracy and MSE was due to genetic architecture. Parametric methods were unable to predict phenotypic values when the underlying genetic architecture was based entirely on epistasis. Parametric methods were slightly better than nonparametric methods for additive genetic architectures. Distinctions among parametric methods for additive genetic architectures were incremental. Heritability, i.e., proportion of phenotypic variability, had the second greatest impact on estimates of accuracy and MSE. PMID:24727289

High-resolution time-frequency representation of EEG data using multi-scale wavelets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yang; Cui, Wei-Gang; Luo, Mei-Lin; Li, Ke; Wang, Lina

2017-09-01

An efficient time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) modelling scheme that expands the time-varying parameters onto the multi-scale wavelet basis functions is presented for modelling nonstationary signals and with applications to time-frequency analysis (TFA) of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In the new parametric modelling framework, the time-dependent parameters of the TVAR model are locally represented by using a novel multi-scale wavelet decomposition scheme, which can allow the capability to capture the smooth trends as well as track the abrupt changes of time-varying parameters simultaneously. A forward orthogonal least square (FOLS) algorithm aided by mutual information criteria are then applied for sparse model term selection and parameter estimation. Two simulation examples illustrate that the performance of the proposed multi-scale wavelet basis functions outperforms the only single-scale wavelet basis functions or Kalman filter algorithm for many nonstationary processes. Furthermore, an application of the proposed method to a real EEG signal demonstrates the new approach can provide highly time-dependent spectral resolution capability.

Multilevel Sequential2 Monte Carlo for Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latz, Jonas; Papaioannou, Iason; Ullmann, Elisabeth

2018-09-01

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior information to estimate the posterior distribution of a parameter. Specifically, we are interested in the distribution of a diffusion coefficient of an elliptic PDE. In this setting, the sample space is high-dimensional, and each sample of the PDE solution is expensive. To address these issues we propose and analyse a novel Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the approximation of the posterior distribution. Classical, single-level SMC constructs a sequence of measures, starting with the prior distribution, and finishing with the posterior distribution. The intermediate measures arise from a tempering of the likelihood, or, equivalently, a rescaling of the noise. The resolution of the PDE discretisation is fixed. In contrast, our estimator employs a hierarchy of PDE discretisations to decrease the computational cost. We construct a sequence of intermediate measures by decreasing the temperature or by increasing the discretisation level at the same time. This idea builds on and generalises the multi-resolution sampler proposed in P.S. Koutsourelakis (2009) [33] where a bridging scheme is used to transfer samples from coarse to fine discretisation levels. Importantly, our choice between tempering and bridging is fully adaptive. We present numerical experiments in 2D space, comparing our estimator to single-level SMC and the multi-resolution sampler.

Bayesian Dose-Response Modeling in Sparse Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Steven B.

This book discusses Bayesian dose-response modeling in small samples applied to two different settings. The first setting is early phase clinical trials, and the second setting is toxicology studies in cancer risk assessment. In early phase clinical trials, experimental units are humans who are actual patients. Prior to a clinical trial, opinions from multiple subject area experts are generally more informative than the opinion of a single expert, but we may face a dilemma when they have disagreeing prior opinions. In this regard, we consider compromising the disagreement and compare two different approaches for making a decision. In addition to combining multiple opinions, we also address balancing two levels of ethics in early phase clinical trials. The first level is individual-level ethics which reflects the perspective of trial participants. The second level is population-level ethics which reflects the perspective of future patients. We extensively compare two existing statistical methods which focus on each perspective and propose a new method which balances the two conflicting perspectives. In toxicology studies, experimental units are living animals. Here we focus on a potential non-monotonic dose-response relationship which is known as hormesis. Briefly, hormesis is a phenomenon which can be characterized by a beneficial effect at low doses and a harmful effect at high doses. In cancer risk assessments, the estimation of a parameter, which is known as a benchmark dose, can be highly sensitive to a class of assumptions, monotonicity or hormesis. In this regard, we propose a robust approach which considers both monotonicity and hormesis as a possibility. In addition, We discuss statistical hypothesis testing for hormesis and consider various experimental designs for detecting hormesis based on Bayesian decision theory. Past experiments have not been optimally designed for testing for hormesis, and some Bayesian optimal designs may not be optimal under a wrong parametric assumption. In this regard, we consider a robust experimental design which does not require any parametric assumption.

Coherence properties of spontaneous parametric down-conversion pumped by a multi-mode cw diode laser.

PubMed

Kwon, Osung; Ra, Young-Sik; Kim, Yoon-Ho

2009-07-20

Coherence properties of the photon pair generated via spontaneous parametric down-conversion pumped by a multi-mode cw diode laser are studied with a Mach-Zehnder interferometer. Each photon of the pair enters a different input port of the interferometer and the biphoton coherence properties are studied with a two-photon detector placed at one output port. When the photon pair simultaneously enters the interferometer, periodic recurrence of the biphoton de Broglie wave packet is observed, closely resembling the coherence properties of the pump diode laser. With non-zero delays between the photons at the input ports, biphoton interference exhibits the same periodic recurrence but the wave packet shapes are shown to be dependent on both the input delay as well as the interferometer delay. These properties could be useful for building engineered entangled photon sources based on diode laser-pumped spontaneous parametric down-conversion.

Bayesian aggregation versus majority vote in the characterization of non-specific arm pain based on quantitative needle electromyography

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Methods for the calculation and application of quantitative electromyographic (EMG) statistics for the characterization of EMG data detected from forearm muscles of individuals with and without pain associated with repetitive strain injury are presented. Methods A classification procedure using a multi-stage application of Bayesian inference is presented that characterizes a set of motor unit potentials acquired using needle electromyography. The utility of this technique in characterizing EMG data obtained from both normal individuals and those presenting with symptoms of "non-specific arm pain" is explored and validated. The efficacy of the Bayesian technique is compared with simple voting methods. Results The aggregate Bayesian classifier presented is found to perform with accuracy equivalent to that of majority voting on the test data, with an overall accuracy greater than 0.85. Theoretical foundations of the technique are discussed, and are related to the observations found. Conclusions Aggregation of motor unit potential conditional probability distributions estimated using quantitative electromyographic analysis, may be successfully used to perform electrodiagnostic characterization of "non-specific arm pain." It is expected that these techniques will also be able to be applied to other types of electrodiagnostic data. PMID:20156353

Astrophysical data analysis with information field theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enßlin, Torsten

2014-12-01

Non-parametric imaging and data analysis in astrophysics and cosmology can be addressed by information field theory (IFT), a means of Bayesian, data based inference on spatially distributed signal fields. IFT is a statistical field theory, which permits the construction of optimal signal recovery algorithms. It exploits spatial correlations of the signal fields even for nonlinear and non-Gaussian signal inference problems. The alleviation of a perception threshold for recovering signals of unknown correlation structure by using IFT will be discussed in particular as well as a novel improvement on instrumental self-calibration schemes. IFT can be applied to many areas. Here, applications in in cosmology (cosmic microwave background, large-scale structure) and astrophysics (galactic magnetism, radio interferometry) are presented.

Data Assimilation and Propagation of Uncertainty in Multiscale Cardiovascular Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiavazzi, Daniele; Marsden, Alison

2015-11-01

Cardiovascular modeling is the application of computational tools to predict hemodynamics. State-of-the-art techniques couple a 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes solver with a boundary circulation model and can predict local and peripheral hemodynamics, analyze the post-operative performance of surgical designs and complement clinical data collection minimizing invasive and risky measurement practices. The ability of these tools to make useful predictions is directly related to their accuracy in representing measured physiologies. Tuning of model parameters is therefore a topic of paramount importance and should include clinical data uncertainty, revealing how this uncertainty will affect the predictions. We propose a fully Bayesian, multi-level approach to data assimilation of uncertain clinical data in multiscale circulation models. To reduce the computational cost, we use a stable, condensed approximation of the 3D model build by linear sparse regression of the pressure/flow rate relationship at the outlets. Finally, we consider the problem of non-invasively propagating the uncertainty in model parameters to the resulting hemodynamics and compare Monte Carlo simulation with Stochastic Collocation approaches based on Polynomial or Multi-resolution Chaos expansions.

Assessing very high resolution UAV imagery for monitoring forest health during a simulated disease outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Jonathan P.; Watt, Michael S.; Pearse, Grant D.; Heaphy, Marie; Dungey, Heidi S.

2017-09-01

Research into remote sensing tools for monitoring physiological stress caused by biotic and abiotic factors is critical for maintaining healthy and highly-productive plantation forests. Significant research has focussed on assessing forest health using remotely sensed data from satellites and manned aircraft. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) may provide new tools for improved forest health monitoring by providing data with very high temporal and spatial resolutions. These platforms also pose unique challenges and methods for health assessments must be validated before use. In this research, we simulated a disease outbreak in mature Pinus radiata D. Don trees using targeted application of herbicide. The objective was to acquire a time-series simulated disease expression dataset to develop methods for monitoring physiological stress from a UAV platform. Time-series multi-spectral imagery was acquired using a UAV flown over a trial at regular intervals. Traditional field-based health assessments of crown health (density) and needle health (discolouration) were carried out simultaneously by experienced forest health experts. Our results showed that multi-spectral imagery collected from a UAV is useful for identifying physiological stress in mature plantation trees even during the early stages of tree stress. We found that physiological stress could be detected earliest in data from the red edge and near infra-red bands. In contrast to previous findings, red edge data did not offer earlier detection of physiological stress than the near infra-red data. A non-parametric approach was used to model physiological stress based on spectral indices and was found to provide good classification accuracy (weighted kappa = 0.694). This model can be used to map physiological stress based on high-resolution multi-spectral data.

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biros, George

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. Thesemore » include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a central challenge in UQ, especially for large-scale models. We propose to develop the mathematical tools to address these challenges in the context of extreme-scale problems. 4. Parallel scalable algorithms for Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED). Bayesian inversion yields quantified uncertainties in the model parameters, which can be propagated forward through the model to yield uncertainty in outputs of interest. This opens the way for designing new experiments to reduce the uncertainties in the model parameters and model predictions. Such experimental design problems have been intractable for large-scale problems using conventional methods; we will create OED algorithms that exploit the structure of the PDE model and the parameter-to-output map to overcome these challenges. Parallel algorithms for these four problems were created, analyzed, prototyped, implemented, tuned, and scaled up for leading-edge supercomputers, including UT-Austin’s own 10 petaflops Stampede system, ANL’s Mira system, and ORNL’s Titan system. While our focus is on fundamental mathematical/computational methods and algorithms, we will assess our methods on model problems derived from several DOE mission applications, including multiscale mechanics and ice sheet dynamics.« less

Incremental harmonic balance method for predicting amplitudes of a multi-d.o.f. non-linear wheel shimmy system with combined Coulomb and quadratic damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J. X.; Zhang, L.

2005-01-01

Incremental harmonic balance (IHB) formulations are derived for general multiple degrees of freedom (d.o.f.) non-linear autonomous systems. These formulations are developed for a concerned four-d.o.f. aircraft wheel shimmy system with combined Coulomb and velocity-squared damping. A multi-harmonic analysis is performed and amplitudes of limit cycles are predicted. Within a large range of parametric variations with respect to aircraft taxi velocity, the IHB method can, at a much cheaper cost, give results with high accuracy as compared with numerical results given by a parametric continuation method. In particular, the IHB method avoids the stiff problems emanating from numerical treatment of aircraft wheel shimmy system equations. The development is applicable to other vibration control systems that include commonly used dry friction devices or velocity-squared hydraulic dampers.

Multi-Parametric Analysis and Modeling of Relationships between Mitochondrial Morphology and Apoptosis

PubMed Central

Reis, Yara; Wolf, Thomas; Brors, Benedikt; Hamacher-Brady, Anne; Eils, Roland; Brady, Nathan R.

2012-01-01

Mitochondria exist as a network of interconnected organelles undergoing constant fission and fusion. Current approaches to study mitochondrial morphology are limited by low data sampling coupled with manual identification and classification of complex morphological phenotypes. Here we propose an integrated mechanistic and data-driven modeling approach to analyze heterogeneous, quantified datasets and infer relations between mitochondrial morphology and apoptotic events. We initially performed high-content, multi-parametric measurements of mitochondrial morphological, apoptotic, and energetic states by high-resolution imaging of human breast carcinoma MCF-7 cells. Subsequently, decision tree-based analysis was used to automatically classify networked, fragmented, and swollen mitochondrial subpopulations, at the single-cell level and within cell populations. Our results revealed subtle but significant differences in morphology class distributions in response to various apoptotic stimuli. Furthermore, key mitochondrial functional parameters including mitochondrial membrane potential and Bax activation, were measured under matched conditions. Data-driven fuzzy logic modeling was used to explore the non-linear relationships between mitochondrial morphology and apoptotic signaling, combining morphological and functional data as a single model. Modeling results are in accordance with previous studies, where Bax regulates mitochondrial fragmentation, and mitochondrial morphology influences mitochondrial membrane potential. In summary, we established and validated a platform for mitochondrial morphological and functional analysis that can be readily extended with additional datasets. We further discuss the benefits of a flexible systematic approach for elucidating specific and general relationships between mitochondrial morphology and apoptosis. PMID:22272225

Thermofluid Analysis of Magnetocaloric Refrigeration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdelaziz, Omar; Gluesenkamp, Kyle R; Vineyard, Edward Allan

While there have been extensive studies on thermofluid characteristics of different magnetocaloric refrigeration systems, a conclusive optimization study using non-dimensional parameters which can be applied to a generic system has not been reported yet. In this study, a numerical model has been developed for optimization of active magnetic refrigerator (AMR). This model is computationally efficient and robust, making it appropriate for running the thousands of simulations required for parametric study and optimization. The governing equations have been non-dimensionalized and numerically solved using finite difference method. A parametric study on a wide range of non-dimensional numbers has been performed. While themore » goal of AMR systems is to improve the performance of competitive parameters including COP, cooling capacity and temperature span, new parameters called AMR performance index-1 have been introduced in order to perform multi objective optimization and simultaneously exploit all these parameters. The multi-objective optimization is carried out for a wide range of the non-dimensional parameters. The results of this study will provide general guidelines for designing high performance AMR systems.« less

Mass discharge estimation from contaminated sites: Multi-model solutions for assessment of conceptual uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, N. I.; Troldborg, M.; McKnight, U. S.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

2012-04-01

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used in the management of contaminated sites. Such estimates have proven useful for supporting decisions related to the prioritization of contaminated sites in a groundwater catchment. Potential management options can be categorised as follows: (1) leave as is, (2) clean up, or (3) further investigation needed. However, mass discharge estimates are often very uncertain, which may hamper the management decisions. If option 1 is incorrectly chosen soil and water quality will decrease, threatening or destroying drinking water resources. The risk of choosing option 2 is to spend money on remediating a site that does not pose a problem. Choosing option 3 will often be safest, but may not be the optimal economic solution. Quantification of the uncertainty in mass discharge estimates can therefore greatly improve the foundation for selecting the appropriate management option. The uncertainty of mass discharge estimates depends greatly on the extent of the site characterization. A good approach for uncertainty estimation will be flexible with respect to the investigation level, and account for both parameter and conceptual model uncertainty. We propose a method for quantifying the uncertainty of dynamic mass discharge estimates from contaminant point sources on the local scale. The method considers both parameter and conceptual uncertainty through a multi-model approach. The multi-model approach evaluates multiple conceptual models for the same site. The different conceptual models consider different source characterizations and hydrogeological descriptions. The idea is to include a set of essentially different conceptual models where each model is believed to be realistic representation of the given site, based on the current level of information. Parameter uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. For each conceptual model we calculate a transient mass discharge estimate with uncertainty bounds resulting from the parametric uncertainty. To quantify the conceptual uncertainty from a given site, we combine the outputs from the different conceptual models using Bayesian model averaging. The weight for each model is obtained by integrating available data and expert knowledge using Bayesian belief networks. The multi-model approach is applied to a contaminated site. At the site a DNAPL (dense non aqueous phase liquid) spill consisting of PCE (perchloroethylene) has contaminated a fractured clay till aquitard overlaying a limestone aquifer. The exact shape and nature of the source is unknown and so is the importance of transport in the fractures. The result of the multi-model approach is a visual representation of the uncertainty of the mass discharge estimates for the site which can be used to support the management options.

Charged particle tracking without magnetic field: Optimal measurement of track momentum by a Bayesian analysis of the multiple measurements of deflections due to multiple scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frosini, Mikael; Bernard, Denis

2017-09-01

We revisit the precision of the measurement of track parameters (position, angle) with optimal methods in the presence of detector resolution, multiple scattering and zero magnetic field. We then obtain an optimal estimator of the track momentum by a Bayesian analysis of the filtering innovations of a series of Kalman filters applied to the track. This work could pave the way to the development of autonomous high-performance gas time-projection chambers (TPC) or silicon wafer γ-ray space telescopes and be a powerful guide in the optimization of the design of the multi-kilo-ton liquid argon TPCs that are under development for neutrino studies.

A multi-instrument non-parametric reconstruction of the electron pressure profile in the galaxy cluster CLJ1226.9+3332

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero, C.; McWilliam, M.; Macías-Pérez, J.-F.; Adam, R.; Ade, P.; André, P.; Aussel, H.; Beelen, A.; Benoît, A.; Bideaud, A.; Billot, N.; Bourrion, O.; Calvo, M.; Catalano, A.; Coiffard, G.; Comis, B.; de Petris, M.; Désert, F.-X.; Doyle, S.; Goupy, J.; Kramer, C.; Lagache, G.; Leclercq, S.; Lestrade, J.-F.; Mauskopf, P.; Mayet, F.; Monfardini, A.; Pascale, E.; Perotto, L.; Pisano, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Revéret, V.; Ritacco, A.; Roussel, H.; Ruppin, F.; Schuster, K.; Sievers, A.; Triqueneaux, S.; Tucker, C.; Zylka, R.

2018-04-01

Context. In the past decade, sensitive, resolved Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) studies of galaxy clusters have become common. Whereas many previous SZ studies have parameterized the pressure profiles of galaxy clusters, non-parametric reconstructions will provide insights into the thermodynamic state of the intracluster medium. Aim. We seek to recover the non-parametric pressure profiles of the high redshift (z = 0.89) galaxy cluster CLJ 1226.9+3332 as inferred from SZ data from the MUSTANG, NIKA, Bolocam, and Planck instruments, which all probe different angular scales. Methods: Our non-parametric algorithm makes use of logarithmic interpolation, which under the assumption of ellipsoidal symmetry is analytically integrable. For MUSTANG, NIKA, and Bolocam we derive a non-parametric pressure profile independently and find good agreement among the instruments. In particular, we find that the non-parametric profiles are consistent with a fitted generalized Navaro-Frenk-White (gNFW) profile. Given the ability of Planck to constrain the total signal, we include a prior on the integrated Compton Y parameter as determined by Planck. Results: For a given instrument, constraints on the pressure profile diminish rapidly beyond the field of view. The overlap in spatial scales probed by these four datasets is therefore critical in checking for consistency between instruments. By using multiple instruments, our analysis of CLJ 1226.9+3332 covers a large radial range, from the central regions to the cluster outskirts: 0.05 R500 < r < 1.1 R500. This is a wider range of spatial scales than is typically recovered by SZ instruments. Similar analyses will be possible with the new generation of SZ instruments such as NIKA2 and MUSTANG2.

Acoustic emission based damage localization in composites structures using Bayesian identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Al-Jumali, S.; Sikdar, S.; Pullin, R.

2017-05-01

Acoustic emission based damage detection in composite structures is based on detection of ultra high frequency packets of acoustic waves emitted from damage sources (such as fibre breakage, fatigue fracture, amongst others) with a network of distributed sensors. This non-destructive monitoring scheme requires solving an inverse problem where the measured signals are linked back to the location of the source. This in turn enables rapid deployment of mitigative measures. The presence of significant amount of uncertainty associated with the operating conditions and measurements makes the problem of damage identification quite challenging. The uncertainties stem from the fact that the measured signals are affected by the irregular geometries, manufacturing imprecision, imperfect boundary conditions, existing damages/structural degradation, amongst others. This work aims to tackle these uncertainties within a framework of automated probabilistic damage detection. The method trains a probabilistic model of the parametrized input and output model of the acoustic emission system with experimental data to give probabilistic descriptors of damage locations. A response surface modelling the acoustic emission as a function of parametrized damage signals collected from sensors would be calibrated with a training dataset using Bayesian inference. This is used to deduce damage locations in the online monitoring phase. During online monitoring, the spatially correlated time data is utilized in conjunction with the calibrated acoustic emissions model to infer the probabilistic description of the acoustic emission source within a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. The methodology is tested on a composite structure consisting of carbon fibre panel with stiffeners and damage source behaviour has been experimentally simulated using standard H-N sources. The methodology presented in this study would be applicable in the current form to structural damage detection under varying operational loads and would be investigated in future studies.

Non-intrusive uncertainty quantification of computational fluid dynamics simulations: notes on the accuracy and efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimoń, Małgorzata; Sawko, Robert; Emerson, David; Thompson, Christopher

2017-11-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is increasingly becoming an indispensable tool for assessing the reliability of computational modelling. Efficient handling of stochastic inputs, such as boundary conditions, physical properties or geometry, increases the utility of model results significantly. We discuss the application of non-intrusive generalised polynomial chaos techniques in the context of fluid engineering simulations. Deterministic and Monte Carlo integration rules are applied to a set of problems, including ordinary differential equations and the computation of aerodynamic parameters subject to random perturbations. In particular, we analyse acoustic wave propagation in a heterogeneous medium to study the effects of mesh resolution, transients, number and variability of stochastic inputs. We consider variants of multi-level Monte Carlo and perform a novel comparison of the methods with respect to numerical and parametric errors, as well as computational cost. The results provide a comprehensive view of the necessary steps in UQ analysis and demonstrate some key features of stochastic fluid flow systems.

Hybrid PET/MR imaging: physics and technical considerations.

PubMed

Shah, Shetal N; Huang, Steve S

2015-08-01

In just over a decade, hybrid imaging with FDG PET/CT has become a standard bearer in the management of cancer patients. An exquisitely sensitive whole-body imaging modality, it combines the ability to detect subtle biologic changes with FDG PET and the anatomic information offered by CT scans. With advances in MR technology and advent of novel targeted PET radiotracers, hybrid PET/MRI is an evolutionary technique that is poised to revolutionize hybrid imaging. It offers unparalleled spatial resolution and functional multi-parametric data combined with biologic information in the non-invasive detection and characterization of diseases, without the deleterious effects of ionizing radiation. This article reviews the basic principles of FDG PET and MR imaging, discusses the salient technical developments of hybrid PET/MR systems, and provides an introduction to FDG PET/MR image acquisition.

Bayesian inference of interaction properties of noisy dynamical systems with time-varying coupling: capabilities and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilting, Jens; Lehnertz, Klaus

2015-08-01

We investigate a recently published analysis framework based on Bayesian inference for the time-resolved characterization of interaction properties of noisy, coupled dynamical systems. It promises wide applicability and a better time resolution than well-established methods. At the example of representative model systems, we show that the analysis framework has the same weaknesses as previous methods, particularly when investigating interacting, structurally different non-linear oscillators. We also inspect the tracking of time-varying interaction properties and propose a further modification of the algorithm, which improves the reliability of obtained results. We exemplarily investigate the suitability of this algorithm to infer strength and direction of interactions between various regions of the human brain during an epileptic seizure. Within the limitations of the applicability of this analysis tool, we show that the modified algorithm indeed allows a better time resolution through Bayesian inference when compared to previous methods based on least square fits.

A Semi-parametric Transformation Frailty Model for Semi-competing Risks Survival Data

PubMed Central

Jiang, Fei; Haneuse, Sebastien

2016-01-01

In the analysis of semi-competing risks data interest lies in estimation and inference with respect to a so-called non-terminal event, the observation of which is subject to a terminal event. Multi-state models are commonly used to analyse such data, with covariate effects on the transition/intensity functions typically specified via the Cox model and dependence between the non-terminal and terminal events specified, in part, by a unit-specific shared frailty term. To ensure identifiability, the frailties are typically assumed to arise from a parametric distribution, specifically a Gamma distribution with mean 1.0 and variance, say, σ2. When the frailty distribution is misspecified, however, the resulting estimator is not guaranteed to be consistent, with the extent of asymptotic bias depending on the discrepancy between the assumed and true frailty distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel class of transformation models for semi-competing risks analysis that permit the non-parametric specification of the frailty distribution. To ensure identifiability, the class restricts to parametric specifications of the transformation and the error distribution; the latter are flexible, however, and cover a broad range of possible specifications. We also derive the semi-parametric efficient score under the complete data setting and propose a non-parametric score imputation method to handle right censoring; consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is derived and small-sample operating characteristics evaluated via simulation. Although the proposed semi-parametric transformation model and non-parametric score imputation method are motivated by the analysis of semi-competing risks data, they are broadly applicable to any analysis of multivariate time-to-event outcomes in which a unit-specific shared frailty is used to account for correlation. Finally, the proposed model and estimation procedures are applied to a study of hospital readmission among patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. PMID:28439147

Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, 4) calibrated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) readings from two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spetroradiometer (MODIS) units on National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Terra and Aqua satellites. Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression were used to determine concentration response (CR) functions for three different PM2.5 levels on asthma emergency department (ED) visits and acute myocardial infarction (MI) inpatient hospitalizations in ninety-nine, 12 km2 grids in Baltimore, MD (2005 data). HB analyses for asthma ED visits produced significant results at 3-day lags for the main effect (OR=1.002, 95% CI=1.000-1.005), and two effect modifiers for females (OR=1.003, 95% CI=1.000-1.006), and non-Caucasian/non-African American persons (OR=1.010, 95% CI=1.001-1.019). HB analyses for acute MI inpatient hospitalizations also consistently produced a significant outcome for persons of other race (OR=1.031, 95% CI=1.006-1.056). Correlation coefficients computed between stationary monitor and satellite AOD PM2.5 values were significant for both asthma (rxy=0.944) and acute MI (rxy=0.940). Both monitor and AOD PM2.5 values were higher in February and June through Aug

eGSM: A extended Sky Model of Diffuse Radio Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Doyeon; Liu, Adrian; Switzer, Eric

2018-01-01

Both cosmic microwave background and 21cm cosmology observations must contend with astrophysical foreground contaminants in the form of diffuse radio emission. For precise cosmological measurements, these foregrounds must be accurately modeled over the entire sky Ideally, such full-sky models ought to be primarily motivated by observations. Yet in practice, these observations are limited, with data sets that are observed not only in a heterogenous fashion, but also over limited frequency ranges. Previously, the Global Sky Model (GSM) took some steps towards solving the problem of incomplete observational data by interpolating over multi-frequency maps using principal component analysis (PCA).In this poster, we present an extended version of GSM (called eGSM) that includes the following improvements: 1) better zero-level calibration 2) incorporation of non-uniform survey resolutions and sky coverage 3) the ability to quantify uncertainties in sky models 4) the ability to optimally select spectral models using Bayesian Evidence techniques.

Novel non-parametric models to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data.

PubMed

Fourment, Mathieu; Holmes, Edward C

2014-07-24

Early methods for estimating divergence times from gene sequence data relied on the assumption of a molecular clock. More sophisticated methods were created to model rate variation and used auto-correlation of rates, local clocks, or the so called "uncorrelated relaxed clock" where substitution rates are assumed to be drawn from a parametric distribution. In the case of Bayesian inference methods the impact of the prior on branching times is not clearly understood, and if the amount of data is limited the posterior could be strongly influenced by the prior. We develop a maximum likelihood method--Physher--that uses local or discrete clocks to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data. Using two empirical data sets we show that our discrete clock estimates are similar to those obtained by other methods, and that Physher outperformed some methods in the estimation of the root age of an influenza virus data set. A simulation analysis suggests that Physher can outperform a Bayesian method when the real topology contains two long branches below the root node, even when evolution is strongly clock-like. These results suggest it is advisable to use a variety of methods to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data. Physher and the associated data sets used here are available online at http://code.google.com/p/physher/.

A non-parametric, supervised classification of vegetation types on the Kaibab National Forest using decision trees

Treesearch

Suzanne M. Joy; R. M. Reich; Richard T. Reynolds

2003-01-01

Traditional land classification techniques for large areas that use Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery are typically limited to the fixed spatial resolution of the sensors (30m). However, the study of some ecological processes requires land cover classifications at finer spatial resolutions. We model forest vegetation types on the Kaibab National Forest (KNF) in...

Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

Circulation and Directional Amplification in the Josephson Parametric Converter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatridge, Michael

Nonreciprocal transport and directional amplification of weak microwave signals are fundamental ingredients in performing efficient measurements of quantum states of flying microwave light. This challenge has been partly met, as quantum-limited amplification is now regularly achieved with parametrically-driven, Josephson-junction based superconducting circuits. However, these devices are typically non-directional, requiring external circulators to separate incoming and outgoing signals. Recently this limitation has been overcome by several proposals and experimental realizations of both directional amplifiers and circulators based on interference between several parametric processes in a single device. This new class of multi-parametrically driven devices holds the promise of achieving a variety of desirable characteristics simultaneously- directionality, reduced gain-bandwidth constraints and quantum-limited added noise, and are good candidates for on-chip integration with other superconducting circuits such as qubits.

Microfabrication of low-loss lumped-element Josephson circuits for non-reciprocal and parametric devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cicak, Katarina; Lecocq, Florent; Ranzani, Leonardo; Peterson, Gabriel A.; Kotler, Shlomi; Teufel, John D.; Simmonds, Raymond W.; Aumentado, Jose

Recent developments in coupled mode theory have opened the doors to new nonreciprocal amplification techniques that can be directly leveraged to produce high quantum efficiency in current measurements in microwave quantum information. However, taking advantage of these techniques requires flexible multi-mode circuit designs comprised of low-loss materials that can be implemented using common fabrication techniques. In this talk we discuss the design and fabrication of a new class of multi-pole lumped-element superconducting parametric amplifiers based on Nb/Al-AlOx/Nb Josephson junctions on silicon or sapphire. To reduce intrinsic loss in these circuits we utilize PECVD amorphous silicon as a low-loss dielectric (tanδ 5 ×10-4), resulting in nearly quantum-limited directional amplification.

MC3: Multi-core Markov-chain Monte Carlo code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cubillos, Patricio; Harrington, Joseph; Lust, Nate; Foster, AJ; Stemm, Madison; Loredo, Tom; Stevenson, Kevin; Campo, Chris; Hardin, Matt; Hardy, Ryan

2016-10-01

MC3 (Multi-core Markov-chain Monte Carlo) is a Bayesian statistics tool that can be executed from the shell prompt or interactively through the Python interpreter with single- or multiple-CPU parallel computing. It offers Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior-distribution sampling for several algorithms, Levenberg-Marquardt least-squares optimization, and uniform non-informative, Jeffreys non-informative, or Gaussian-informative priors. MC3 can share the same value among multiple parameters and fix the value of parameters to constant values, and offers Gelman-Rubin convergence testing and correlated-noise estimation with time-averaging or wavelet-based likelihood estimation methods.

Integrating science and education during an international, multi-parametric investigation of volcanic activity at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavallée, Yan; Johnson, Jeffrey; Andrews, Benjamin; Wolf, Rudiger; Rose, William; Chigna, Gustavo; Pineda, Armand

2016-04-01

In January 2016, we held the first scientific/educational Workshops on Volcanoes (WoV). The workshop took place at Santiaguito volcano - the most active volcano in Guatemala. 69 international scientists of all ages participated in this intensive, multi-parametric investigation of the volcanic activity, which included the deployment of seismometers, tiltmeters, infrasound microphones and mini-DOAS as well as optical, thermographic, UV and FTIR cameras around the active vent. These instruments recorded volcanic activity in concert over a period of 3 to 9 days. Here we review the research activities and present some of the spectacular observations made through this interdisciplinary efforts. Observations range from high-resolution drone and IR footage of explosions, monitoring of rock falls and quantification of the erupted mass of different gases and ash, as well as morphological changes in the dome caused by recurring explosions (amongst many other volcanic processes). We will discuss the success of such integrative ventures in furthering science frontiers and developing the next generation of geoscientists.

The current duration design for estimating the time to pregnancy distribution: a nonparametric Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Gasbarra, Dario; Arjas, Elja; Vehtari, Aki; Slama, Rémy; Keiding, Niels

2015-10-01

This paper was inspired by the studies of Niels Keiding and co-authors on estimating the waiting time-to-pregnancy (TTP) distribution, and in particular on using the current duration design in that context. In this design, a cross-sectional sample of women is collected from those who are currently attempting to become pregnant, and then by recording from each the time she has been attempting. Our aim here is to study the identifiability and the estimation of the waiting time distribution on the basis of current duration data. The main difficulty in this stems from the fact that very short waiting times are only rarely selected into the sample of current durations, and this renders their estimation unstable. We introduce here a Bayesian method for this estimation problem, prove its asymptotic consistency, and compare the method to some variants of the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators, which have been used previously in this context. The properties of the Bayesian estimation method are studied also empirically, using both simulated data and TTP data on current durations collected by Slama et al. (Hum Reprod 27(5):1489-1498, 2012).

Boosting Bayesian parameter inference of stochastic differential equation models with methods from statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Stoop, Ruedi

2016-04-01

Measured time-series of both precipitation and runoff are known to exhibit highly non-trivial statistical properties. For making reliable probabilistic predictions in hydrology, it is therefore desirable to have stochastic models with output distributions that share these properties. When parameters of such models have to be inferred from data, we also need to quantify the associated parametric uncertainty. For non-trivial stochastic models, however, this latter step is typically very demanding, both conceptually and numerically, and always never done in hydrology. Here, we demonstrate that methods developed in statistical physics make a large class of stochastic differential equation (SDE) models amenable to a full-fledged Bayesian parameter inference. For concreteness we demonstrate these methods by means of a simple yet non-trivial toy SDE model. We consider a natural catchment that can be described by a linear reservoir, at the scale of observation. All the neglected processes are assumed to happen at much shorter time-scales and are therefore modeled with a Gaussian white noise term, the standard deviation of which is assumed to scale linearly with the system state (water volume in the catchment). Even for constant input, the outputs of this simple non-linear SDE model show a wealth of desirable statistical properties, such as fat-tailed distributions and long-range correlations. Standard algorithms for Bayesian inference fail, for models of this kind, because their likelihood functions are extremely high-dimensional intractable integrals over all possible model realizations. The use of Kalman filters is illegitimate due to the non-linearity of the model. Particle filters could be used but become increasingly inefficient with growing number of data points. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms allow us to translate this inference problem to the problem of simulating the dynamics of a statistical mechanics system and give us access to most sophisticated methods that have been developed in the statistical physics community over the last few decades. We demonstrate that such methods, along with automated differentiation algorithms, allow us to perform a full-fledged Bayesian inference, for a large class of SDE models, in a highly efficient and largely automatized manner. Furthermore, our algorithm is highly parallelizable. For our toy model, discretized with a few hundred points, a full Bayesian inference can be performed in a matter of seconds on a standard PC.

Assessment of Data Fusion Algorithms for Earth Observation Change Detection Processes.

PubMed

Molina, Iñigo; Martinez, Estibaliz; Morillo, Carmen; Velasco, Jesus; Jara, Alvaro

2016-09-30

In this work a parametric multi-sensor Bayesian data fusion approach and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used for a Change Detection problem. For this purpose two sets of SPOT5-PAN images have been used, which are in turn used for Change Detection Indices (CDIs) calculation. For minimizing radiometric differences, a methodology based on zonal "invariant features" is suggested. The choice of one or the other CDI for a change detection process is a subjective task as each CDI is probably more or less sensitive to certain types of changes. Likewise, this idea might be employed to create and improve a "change map", which can be accomplished by means of the CDI's informational content. For this purpose, information metrics such as the Shannon Entropy and "Specific Information" have been used to weight the changes and no-changes categories contained in a certain CDI and thus introduced in the Bayesian information fusion algorithm. Furthermore, the parameters of the probability density functions (pdf's) that best fit the involved categories have also been estimated. Conversely, these considerations are not necessary for mapping procedures based on the discriminant functions of a SVM. This work has confirmed the capabilities of probabilistic information fusion procedure under these circumstances.

Mr-Moose: An advanced SED-fitting tool for heterogeneous multi-wavelength datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouart, G.; Falkendal, T.

2018-04-01

We present the public release of Mr-Moose, a fitting procedure that is able to perform multi-wavelength and multi-object spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting in a Bayesian framework. This procedure is able to handle a large variety of cases, from an isolated source to blended multi-component sources from an heterogeneous dataset (i.e. a range of observation sensitivities and spectral/spatial resolutions). Furthermore, Mr-Moose handles upper-limits during the fitting process in a continuous way allowing models to be gradually less probable as upper limits are approached. The aim is to propose a simple-to-use, yet highly-versatile fitting tool fro handling increasing source complexity when combining multi-wavelength datasets with fully customisable filter/model databases. The complete control of the user is one advantage, which avoids the traditional problems related to the "black box" effect, where parameter or model tunings are impossible and can lead to overfitting and/or over-interpretation of the results. Also, while a basic knowledge of Python and statistics is required, the code aims to be sufficiently user-friendly for non-experts. We demonstrate the procedure on three cases: two artificially-generated datasets and a previous result from the literature. In particular, the most complex case (inspired by a real source, combining Herschel, ALMA and VLA data) in the context of extragalactic SED fitting, makes Mr-Moose a particularly-attractive SED fitting tool when dealing with partially blended sources, without the need for data deconvolution.

MR-MOOSE: an advanced SED-fitting tool for heterogeneous multi-wavelength data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouart, G.; Falkendal, T.

2018-07-01

We present the public release of MR-MOOSE, a fitting procedure that is able to perform multi-wavelength and multi-object spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting in a Bayesian framework. This procedure is able to handle a large variety of cases, from an isolated source to blended multi-component sources from a heterogeneous data set (i.e. a range of observation sensitivities and spectral/spatial resolutions). Furthermore, MR-MOOSE handles upper limits during the fitting process in a continuous way allowing models to be gradually less probable as upper limits are approached. The aim is to propose a simple-to-use, yet highly versatile fitting tool for handling increasing source complexity when combining multi-wavelength data sets with fully customisable filter/model data bases. The complete control of the user is one advantage, which avoids the traditional problems related to the `black box' effect, where parameter or model tunings are impossible and can lead to overfitting and/or over-interpretation of the results. Also, while a basic knowledge of PYTHON and statistics is required, the code aims to be sufficiently user-friendly for non-experts. We demonstrate the procedure on three cases: two artificially generated data sets and a previous result from the literature. In particular, the most complex case (inspired by a real source, combining Herschel, ALMA, and VLA data) in the context of extragalactic SED fitting makes MR-MOOSE a particularly attractive SED fitting tool when dealing with partially blended sources, without the need for data deconvolution.

Quantum state estimation when qubits are lost: a no-data-left-behind approach

DOE PAGES

Williams, Brian P.; Lougovski, Pavel

2017-04-06

We present an approach to Bayesian mean estimation of quantum states using hyperspherical parametrization and an experiment-specific likelihood which allows utilization of all available data, even when qubits are lost. With this method, we report the first closed-form Bayesian mean and maximum likelihood estimates for the ideal single qubit. Due to computational constraints, we utilize numerical sampling to determine the Bayesian mean estimate for a photonic two-qubit experiment in which our novel analysis reduces burdens associated with experimental asymmetries and inefficiencies. This method can be applied to quantum states of any dimension and experimental complexity.

Whole-body PET parametric imaging employing direct 4D nested reconstruction and a generalized non-linear Patlak model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Nicolas A.; Rahmim, Arman

2014-03-01

Graphical analysis is employed in the research setting to provide quantitative estimation of PET tracer kinetics from dynamic images at a single bed. Recently, we proposed a multi-bed dynamic acquisition framework enabling clinically feasible whole-body parametric PET imaging by employing post-reconstruction parameter estimation. In addition, by incorporating linear Patlak modeling within the system matrix, we enabled direct 4D reconstruction in order to effectively circumvent noise amplification in dynamic whole-body imaging. However, direct 4D Patlak reconstruction exhibits a relatively slow convergence due to the presence of non-sparse spatial correlations in temporal kinetic analysis. In addition, the standard Patlak model does not account for reversible uptake, thus underestimating the influx rate Ki. We have developed a novel whole-body PET parametric reconstruction framework in the STIR platform, a widely employed open-source reconstruction toolkit, a) enabling accelerated convergence of direct 4D multi-bed reconstruction, by employing a nested algorithm to decouple the temporal parameter estimation from the spatial image update process, and b) enhancing the quantitative performance particularly in regions with reversible uptake, by pursuing a non-linear generalized Patlak 4D nested reconstruction algorithm. A set of published kinetic parameters and the XCAT phantom were employed for the simulation of dynamic multi-bed acquisitions. Quantitative analysis on the Ki images demonstrated considerable acceleration in the convergence of the nested 4D whole-body Patlak algorithm. In addition, our simulated and patient whole-body data in the postreconstruction domain indicated the quantitative benefits of our extended generalized Patlak 4D nested reconstruction for tumor diagnosis and treatment response monitoring.

Multi-parametric MRI findings of granulomatous prostatitis developing after intravesical bacillus calmette-guérin therapy.

PubMed

Gottlieb, Josh; Princenthal, Robert; Cohen, Martin I

2017-07-01

To evaluate the multi-parametric MRI (mpMRI) findings in patients with biopsy-proven granulomatous prostatitis and prior Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) exposure. MRI was performed in six patients with pathologically proven granulomatous prostatitis and a prior history of bladder cancer treated with intravesical BCG therapy. Multi-parametric prostate MRI images were recorded on a GE 750W or Philips Achieva 3.0 Tesla MRI scanner with high-resolution, small-field-of-view imaging consisting of axial T2, axial T1, coronal T2, sagittal T2, axial multiple b-value diffusion (multiple values up to 1200 or 1400), and dynamic contrast-enhanced 3D axial T1 with fat suppression sequence. Two different patterns of MR findings were observed. Five of the six patients had a low mean ADC value <1000 (decreased signal on ADC map images) and isointense signal on high-b-value imaging (b = 1200 or 1400), consistent with nonspecific granulomatous prostatitis. The other pattern seen in one of the six patients was decreased signal on the ADC map images with increased signal on the high-b-value sequence, revealing true restricted diffusion indistinguishable from aggressive prostate cancer. This patient had biopsy-confirmed acute BCG prostatitis. Our study suggests that patients with known BCG exposure and PI-RADS v2 scores ≤3, showing similar mpMRI findings as demonstrated, may not require prostate biopsy.

Genome-wide regression and prediction with the BGLR statistical package.

PubMed

Pérez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

2014-10-01

Many modern genomic data analyses require implementing regressions where the number of parameters (p, e.g., the number of marker effects) exceeds sample size (n). Implementing these large-p-with-small-n regressions poses several statistical and computational challenges, some of which can be confronted using Bayesian methods. This approach allows integrating various parametric and nonparametric shrinkage and variable selection procedures in a unified and consistent manner. The BGLR R-package implements a large collection of Bayesian regression models, including parametric variable selection and shrinkage methods and semiparametric procedures (Bayesian reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regressions, RKHS). The software was originally developed for genomic applications; however, the methods implemented are useful for many nongenomic applications as well. The response can be continuous (censored or not) or categorical (either binary or ordinal). The algorithm is based on a Gibbs sampler with scalar updates and the implementation takes advantage of efficient compiled C and Fortran routines. In this article we describe the methods implemented in BGLR, present examples of the use of the package, and discuss practical issues emerging in real-data analysis. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

The Importance of Practice in the Development of Statistics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OIF STANDARDS 1963 -A NRC Technical Summary Report #2471 C THE IMORTANCE OF PRACTICE IN to THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICS...component analysis, bioassay, limits for a ratio, quality control, sampling inspection, non-parametric tests , transformation theory, ARIMA time series...models, sequential tests , cumulative sum charts, data analysis plotting techniques, and a resolution of the Bayes - frequentist controversy. It appears

Multi-Level Building Reconstruction for Automatic Enhancement of High Resolution Dsms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arefi, H.; Reinartz, P.

2012-07-01

In this article a multi-level approach is proposed for reconstruction-based improvement of high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSMs). The concept of Levels of Detail (LOD) defined by CityGML standard has been considered as basis for abstraction levels of building roof structures. Here, the LOD1 and LOD2 which are related to prismatic and parametric roof shapes are reconstructed. Besides proposing a new approach for automatic LOD1 and LOD2 generation from high resolution DSMs, the algorithm contains two generalization levels namely horizontal and vertical. Both generalization levels are applied to prismatic model of buildings. The horizontal generalization allows controlling the approximation level of building footprints which is similar to cartographic generalization concept of the urban maps. In vertical generalization, the prismatic model is formed using an individual building height and continuous to included all flat structures locating in different height levels. The concept of LOD1 generation is based on approximation of the building footprints into rectangular or non-rectangular polygons. For a rectangular building containing one main orientation a method based on Minimum Bounding Rectangle (MBR) in employed. In contrast, a Combined Minimum Bounding Rectangle (CMBR) approach is proposed for regularization of non-rectilinear polygons, i.e. buildings without perpendicular edge directions. Both MBRand CMBR-based approaches are iteratively employed on building segments to reduce the original building footprints to a minimum number of nodes with maximum similarity to original shapes. A model driven approach based on the analysis of the 3D points of DSMs in a 2D projection plane is proposed for LOD2 generation. Accordingly, a building block is divided into smaller parts according to the direction and number of existing ridge lines. The 3D model is derived for each building part and finally, a complete parametric model is formed by merging all the 3D models of the individual parts and adjusting the nodes after the merging step. In order to provide an enhanced DSM, a surface model is provided for each building by interpolation of the internal points of the generated models. All interpolated models are situated on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of corresponding area to shape the enhanced DSM. Proposed DSM enhancement approach has been tested on a dataset from Munich central area. The original DSM is created using robust stereo matching of Worldview-2 stereo images. A quantitative assessment of the new DSM by comparing the heights of the ridges and eaves shows a standard deviation of better than 50cm.

Broadly tunable ultrafast pump-probe system operating at multi-kHz repetition rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grupp, Alexander; Budweg, Arne; Fischer, Marco P.; Allerbeck, Jonas; Soavi, Giancarlo; Leitenstorfer, Alfred; Brida, Daniele

2018-01-01

Femtosecond systems based on ytterbium as active medium are ideal for driving ultrafast optical parametric amplifiers in a broad frequency range. The excellent stability of the source and the repetition rate tunable to up to hundreds of kHz allow for the implementation of an advanced two-color pump probe setup with the capability to achieve excellent signal-to-noise performances with sub-10 fs temporal resolution.

Guided SAR image despeckling with probabilistic non local weights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokul, Jithin; Nair, Madhu S.; Rajan, Jeny

2017-12-01

SAR images are generally corrupted by granular disturbances called speckle, which makes visual analysis and detail extraction a difficult task. Non Local despeckling techniques with probabilistic similarity has been a recent trend in SAR despeckling. To achieve effective speckle suppression without compromising detail preservation, we propose an improvement for the existing Generalized Guided Filter with Bayesian Non-Local Means (GGF-BNLM) method. The proposed method (Guided SAR Image Despeckling with Probabilistic Non Local Weights) replaces parametric constants based on heuristics in GGF-BNLM method with dynamically derived values based on the image statistics for weight computation. Proposed changes make GGF-BNLM method adaptive and as a result, significant improvement is achieved in terms of performance. Experimental analysis on SAR images shows excellent speckle reduction without compromising feature preservation when compared to GGF-BNLM method. Results are also compared with other state-of-the-art and classic SAR depseckling techniques to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

An adaptive least-squares global sensitivity method and application to a plasma-coupled combustion prediction with parametric correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Kunkun; Massa, Luca; Wang, Jonathan; Freund, Jonathan B.

2018-05-01

We introduce an efficient non-intrusive surrogate-based methodology for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. Modified covariance-based sensitivity indices (mCov-SI) are defined for outputs that reflect correlated effects. The overall approach is applied to simulations of a complex plasma-coupled combustion system with disparate uncertain parameters in sub-models for chemical kinetics and a laser-induced breakdown ignition seed. The surrogate is based on an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) expansion, such as widely used in statistics, with orthogonal polynomials representing the ANOVA subspaces and a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) representing its multi-dimensional components. The coefficients of the PDD expansion are obtained using a least-squares regression, which both avoids the direct computation of high-dimensional integrals and affords an attractive flexibility in choosing sampling points. This facilitates importance sampling using a Bayesian calibrated posterior distribution, which is fast and thus particularly advantageous in common practical cases, such as our large-scale demonstration, for which the asymptotic convergence properties of polynomial expansions cannot be realized due to computation expense. Effort, instead, is focused on efficient finite-resolution sampling. Standard covariance-based sensitivity indices (Cov-SI) are employed to account for correlation of the uncertain parameters. Magnitude of Cov-SI is unfortunately unbounded, which can produce extremely large indices that limit their utility. Alternatively, mCov-SI are then proposed in order to bound this magnitude ∈ [ 0 , 1 ]. The polynomial expansion is coupled with an adaptive ANOVA strategy to provide an accurate surrogate as the union of several low-dimensional spaces, avoiding the typical computational cost of a high-dimensional expansion. It is also adaptively simplified according to the relative contribution of the different polynomials to the total variance. The approach is demonstrated for a laser-induced turbulent combustion simulation model, which includes parameters with correlated effects.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-01-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

Robust Hydrological Forecasting for High-resolution Distributed Models Using a Unified Data Assimilation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, F.; Liang, X.

2017-12-01

Reliable real-time hydrological forecasting, to predict important phenomena such as floods, is invaluable to the society. However, modern high-resolution distributed models have faced challenges when dealing with uncertainties that are caused by the large number of parameters and initial state estimations involved. Therefore, to rely on these high-resolution models for critical real-time forecast applications, considerable improvements on the parameter and initial state estimation techniques must be made. In this work we present a unified data assimilation algorithm called Optimized PareTo Inverse Modeling through Inverse STochastic Search (OPTIMISTS) to deal with the challenge of having robust flood forecasting for high-resolution distributed models. This new algorithm combines the advantages of particle filters and variational methods in a unique way to overcome their individual weaknesses. The analysis of candidate particles compares model results with observations in a flexible time frame, and a multi-objective approach is proposed which attempts to simultaneously minimize differences with the observations and departures from the background states by using both Bayesian sampling and non-convex evolutionary optimization. Moreover, the resulting Pareto front is given a probabilistic interpretation through kernel density estimation to create a non-Gaussian distribution of the states. OPTIMISTS was tested on a low-resolution distributed land surface model using VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) and on a high-resolution distributed hydrological model using the DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model). In the tests streamflow observations are assimilated. OPTIMISTS was also compared with a traditional particle filter and a variational method. Results show that our method can reliably produce adequate forecasts and that it is able to outperform those resulting from assimilating the observations using a particle filter or an evolutionary 4D variational method alone. In addition, our method is shown to be efficient in tackling high-resolution applications with robust results.

Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Elst, N.; Page, M. T.

2017-12-01

The basic premise behind aftershock forecasting is that sequences in the future will be similar to those in the past. Forecast models typically use empirically tuned parametric distributions to approximate past sequences, and project those distributions into the future to make a forecast. While parametric models do a good job of describing average outcomes, they are not explicitly designed to capture the full range of variability between sequences, and can suffer from over-tuning of the parameters. In particular, parametric forecasts may produce a high rate of "surprises" - sequences that land outside the forecast range. Here we present a non-parametric forecast method that cuts out the parametric "middleman" between training data and forecast. The method is based on finding past sequences that are similar to the target sequence, and evaluating their outcomes. We quantify similarity as the Poisson probability that the observed event count in a past sequence reflects the same underlying intensity as the observed event count in the target sequence. Event counts are defined in terms of differential magnitude relative to the mainshock. The forecast is then constructed from the distribution of past sequences outcomes, weighted by their similarity. We compare the similarity forecast with the Reasenberg and Jones (RJ95) method, for a set of 2807 global aftershock sequences of M≥6 mainshocks. We implement a sequence-specific RJ95 forecast using a global average prior and Bayesian updating, but do not propagate epistemic uncertainty. The RJ95 forecast is somewhat more precise than the similarity forecast: 90% of observed sequences fall within a factor of two of the median RJ95 forecast value, whereas the fraction is 85% for the similarity forecast. However, the surprise rate is much higher for the RJ95 forecast; 10% of observed sequences fall in the upper 2.5% of the (Poissonian) forecast range. The surprise rate is less than 3% for the similarity forecast. The similarity forecast may be useful to emergency managers and non-specialists when confidence or expertise in parametric forecasting may be lacking. The method makes over-tuning impossible, and minimizes the rate of surprises. At the least, this forecast constitutes a useful benchmark for more precisely tuned parametric forecasts.

A multiscale Bayesian data integration approach for mapping air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

PubMed

Wainwright, Haruko M; Seki, Akiyuki; Chen, Jinsong; Saito, Kimiaki

2017-02-01

This paper presents a multiscale data integration method to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We integrate various types of datasets, such as ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. The Bayesian method allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the estimates, and to provide the confidence intervals that are critical for robust decision-making. Although this approach is primarily data-driven, it has great flexibility to include mechanistic models for representing radiation transport or other complex correlations. We demonstrate our approach using three types of datasets collected at the same time over Fukushima City in Japan: (1) coarse-resolution airborne surveys covering the entire area, (2) car surveys along major roads, and (3) walk surveys in multiple neighborhoods. Results show that the method can successfully integrate three types of datasets and create an integrated map (including the confidence intervals) of air dose rates over the domain in high resolution. Moreover, this study provides us with various insights into the characteristics of each dataset, as well as radiocaesium distribution. In particular, the urban areas show high heterogeneity in the contaminant distribution due to human activities as well as large discrepancy among different surveys due to such heterogeneity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based spectral estimation of Doppler signals using parallel genetic algorithms.

PubMed

Solano González, J; Rodríguez Vázquez, K; García Nocetti, D F

2000-05-01

Conventional spectral analysis methods use a fast Fourier transform (FFT) on consecutive or overlapping windowed data segments. For Doppler ultrasound signals, this approach suffers from an inadequate frequency resolution due to the time segment duration and the non-stationarity characteristics of the signals. Parametric or model-based estimators can give significant improvements in the time-frequency resolution at the expense of a higher computational complexity. This work describes an approach which implements in real-time a parametric spectral estimator method using genetic algorithms (GAs) in order to find the optimum set of parameters for the adaptive filter that minimises the error function. The aim is to reduce the computational complexity of the conventional algorithm by using the simplicity associated to GAs and exploiting its parallel characteristics. This will allow the implementation of higher order filters, increasing the spectrum resolution, and opening a greater scope for using more complex methods.

Water Residence Time estimation by 1D deconvolution in the form of a l2 -regularized inverse problem with smoothness, positivity and causality constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meresescu, Alina G.; Kowalski, Matthieu; Schmidt, Frédéric; Landais, François

2018-06-01

The Water Residence Time distribution is the equivalent of the impulse response of a linear system allowing the propagation of water through a medium, e.g. the propagation of rain water from the top of the mountain towards the aquifers. We consider the output aquifer levels as the convolution between the input rain levels and the Water Residence Time, starting with an initial aquifer base level. The estimation of Water Residence Time is important for a better understanding of hydro-bio-geochemical processes and mixing properties of wetlands used as filters in ecological applications, as well as protecting fresh water sources for wells from pollutants. Common methods of estimating the Water Residence Time focus on cross-correlation, parameter fitting and non-parametric deconvolution methods. Here we propose a 1D full-deconvolution, regularized, non-parametric inverse problem algorithm that enforces smoothness and uses constraints of causality and positivity to estimate the Water Residence Time curve. Compared to Bayesian non-parametric deconvolution approaches, it has a fast runtime per test case; compared to the popular and fast cross-correlation method, it produces a more precise Water Residence Time curve even in the case of noisy measurements. The algorithm needs only one regularization parameter to balance between smoothness of the Water Residence Time and accuracy of the reconstruction. We propose an approach on how to automatically find a suitable value of the regularization parameter from the input data only. Tests on real data illustrate the potential of this method to analyze hydrological datasets.

On the Way to Appropriate Model Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höge, M.

2016-12-01

When statistical models are used to represent natural phenomena they are often too simple or too complex - this is known. But what exactly is model complexity? Among many other definitions, the complexity of a model can be conceptualized as a measure of statistical dependence between observations and parameters (Van der Linde, 2014). However, several issues remain when working with model complexity: A unique definition for model complexity is missing. Assuming a definition is accepted, how can model complexity be quantified? How can we use a quantified complexity to the better of modeling? Generally defined, "complexity is a measure of the information needed to specify the relationships between the elements of organized systems" (Bawden & Robinson, 2015). The complexity of a system changes as the knowledge about the system changes. For models this means that complexity is not a static concept: With more data or higher spatio-temporal resolution of parameters, the complexity of a model changes. There are essentially three categories into which all commonly used complexity measures can be classified: (1) An explicit representation of model complexity as "Degrees of freedom" of a model, e.g. effective number of parameters. (2) Model complexity as code length, a.k.a. "Kolmogorov complexity": The longer the shortest model code, the higher its complexity (e.g. in bits). (3) Complexity defined via information entropy of parametric or predictive uncertainty. Preliminary results show that Bayes theorem allows for incorporating all parts of the non-static concept of model complexity like data quality and quantity or parametric uncertainty. Therefore, we test how different approaches for measuring model complexity perform in comparison to a fully Bayesian model selection procedure. Ultimately, we want to find a measure that helps to assess the most appropriate model.

Multi-Scale Validation of a Nanodiamond Drug Delivery System and Multi-Scale Engineering Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Michelle Kristin

2010-01-01

This dissertation has two primary concerns: (i) evaluating the uncertainty and prediction capabilities of a nanodiamond drug delivery model using Bayesian calibration and bias correction, and (ii) determining conceptual difficulties of multi-scale analysis from an engineering education perspective. A Bayesian uncertainty quantification scheme…

Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis via contaminated informative priors.

PubMed

Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B

2009-09-01

A variety of flexible approaches have been proposed for functional data analysis, allowing both the mean curve and the distribution about the mean to be unknown. Such methods are most useful when there is limited prior information. Motivated by applications to modeling of temperature curves in the menstrual cycle, this article proposes a flexible approach for incorporating prior information in semiparametric Bayesian analyses of hierarchical functional data. The proposed approach is based on specifying the distribution of functions as a mixture of a parametric hierarchical model and a nonparametric contamination. The parametric component is chosen based on prior knowledge, while the contamination is characterized as a functional Dirichlet process. In the motivating application, the contamination component allows unanticipated curve shapes in unhealthy menstrual cycles. Methods are developed for posterior computation, and the approach is applied to data from a European fecundability study.

Stochastic Inversion of 2D Magnetotelluric Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jinsong

2010-07-01

The algorithm is developed to invert 2D magnetotelluric (MT) data based on sharp boundary parametrization using a Bayesian framework. Within the algorithm, we consider the locations and the resistivity of regions formed by the interfaces are as unknowns. We use a parallel, adaptive finite-element algorithm to forward simulate frequency-domain MT responses of 2D conductivity structure. Those unknown parameters are spatially correlated and are described by a geostatistical model. The joint posterior probability distribution function is explored by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods. The developed stochastic model is effective for estimating the interface locations and resistivity. Most importantly, itmore » provides details uncertainty information on each unknown parameter. Hardware requirements: PC, Supercomputer, Multi-platform, Workstation; Software requirements C and Fortan; Operation Systems/version is Linux/Unix or Windows« less

Empirical intrinsic geometry for nonlinear modeling and time series filtering.

PubMed

Talmon, Ronen; Coifman, Ronald R

2013-07-30

In this paper, we present a method for time series analysis based on empirical intrinsic geometry (EIG). EIG enables one to reveal the low-dimensional parametric manifold as well as to infer the underlying dynamics of high-dimensional time series. By incorporating concepts of information geometry, this method extends existing geometric analysis tools to support stochastic settings and parametrizes the geometry of empirical distributions. However, the statistical models are not required as priors; hence, EIG may be applied to a wide range of real signals without existing definitive models. We show that the inferred model is noise-resilient and invariant under different observation and instrumental modalities. In addition, we show that it can be extended efficiently to newly acquired measurements in a sequential manner. These two advantages enable us to revisit the Bayesian approach and incorporate empirical dynamics and intrinsic geometry into a nonlinear filtering framework. We show applications to nonlinear and non-Gaussian tracking problems as well as to acoustic signal localization.

Revision of a local magnitude relation for South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheen, D. H.; Seo, K. J.; Oh, J.; Kim, S.; Kang, T. S.; Rhie, J.

2017-12-01

A local magnitude relation in South Korea is revised using synthetic Wood-Anderson seismograms from local earthquakes in the distance range of 10-600 km recorded by broadband seismic networks, operated by the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) between 2001 and 2016. The magnitudes of the earthquakes ranged from ML 2.0 to 5.8 based on the catalog of the KMA. Total numbers of events and seismic records are about 500 and 10,000, respectively. In order to minimize the location error, inland earthquakes were relocated based on manual picks of P and S arrivals using 1-D velocity model for South Korea developed by a trans-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inversion. Wood-Anderson peak amplitudes measured on the records whose signal-to-noise ratios are greater than 3.0 and were inverted for the attenuation curve by parametric and non-parametric least-squares inversion methods. The discussion on the comparison of the resulting local magnitude relationships will also be addressed.

Update on Bayesian Blocks: Segmented Models for Sequential Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeff

2017-01-01

The Bayesian Block algorithm, in wide use in astronomy and other areas, has been improved in several ways. The model for block shape has been generalized to include other than constant signal rate - e.g., linear, exponential, or other parametric models. In addition the computational efficiency has been improved, so that instead of O(N**2) the basic algorithm is O(N) in most cases. Other improvements in the theory and application of segmented representations will be described.

Chaotic map clustering algorithm for EEG analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellotti, R.; De Carlo, F.; Stramaglia, S.

2004-03-01

The non-parametric chaotic map clustering algorithm has been applied to the analysis of electroencephalographic signals, in order to recognize the Huntington's disease, one of the most dangerous pathologies of the central nervous system. The performance of the method has been compared with those obtained through parametric algorithms, as K-means and deterministic annealing, and supervised multi-layer perceptron. While supervised neural networks need a training phase, performed by means of data tagged by the genetic test, and the parametric methods require a prior choice of the number of classes to find, the chaotic map clustering gives a natural evidence of the pathological class, without any training or supervision, thus providing a new efficient methodology for the recognition of patterns affected by the Huntington's disease.

Characterizing Heterogeneity within Head and Neck Lesions Using Cluster Analysis of Multi-Parametric MRI Data.

PubMed

Borri, Marco; Schmidt, Maria A; Powell, Ceri; Koh, Dow-Mu; Riddell, Angela M; Partridge, Mike; Bhide, Shreerang A; Nutting, Christopher M; Harrington, Kevin J; Newbold, Katie L; Leach, Martin O

2015-01-01

To describe a methodology, based on cluster analysis, to partition multi-parametric functional imaging data into groups (or clusters) of similar functional characteristics, with the aim of characterizing functional heterogeneity within head and neck tumour volumes. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a set of longitudinal MRI data, analysing the evolution of the obtained sub-sets with treatment. The cluster analysis workflow was applied to a combination of dynamic contrast-enhanced and diffusion-weighted imaging MRI data from a cohort of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck patients. Cumulative distributions of voxels, containing pre and post-treatment data and including both primary tumours and lymph nodes, were partitioned into k clusters (k = 2, 3 or 4). Principal component analysis and cluster validation were employed to investigate data composition and to independently determine the optimal number of clusters. The evolution of the resulting sub-regions with induction chemotherapy treatment was assessed relative to the number of clusters. The clustering algorithm was able to separate clusters which significantly reduced in voxel number following induction chemotherapy from clusters with a non-significant reduction. Partitioning with the optimal number of clusters (k = 4), determined with cluster validation, produced the best separation between reducing and non-reducing clusters. The proposed methodology was able to identify tumour sub-regions with distinct functional properties, independently separating clusters which were affected differently by treatment. This work demonstrates that unsupervised cluster analysis, with no prior knowledge of the data, can be employed to provide a multi-parametric characterization of functional heterogeneity within tumour volumes.

A Bayesian multi-stage cost-effectiveness design for animal studies in stroke research

PubMed Central

Cai, Chunyan; Ning, Jing; Huang, Xuelin

2017-01-01

Much progress has been made in the area of adaptive designs for clinical trials. However, little has been done regarding adaptive designs to identify optimal treatment strategies in animal studies. Motivated by an animal study of a novel strategy for treating strokes, we propose a Bayesian multi-stage cost-effectiveness design to simultaneously identify the optimal dose and determine the therapeutic treatment window for administrating the experimental agent. We consider a non-monotonic pattern for the dose-schedule-efficacy relationship and develop an adaptive shrinkage algorithm to assign more cohorts to admissible strategies. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the performance of the proposed design by comparing it with two standard designs. These simulation studies show that the proposed design yields a significantly higher probability of selecting the optimal strategy, while it is generally more efficient and practical in terms of resource usage. PMID:27405325

Towards the Optimal Pixel Size of dem for Automatic Mapping of Landslide Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawłuszek, K.; Borkowski, A.; Tarolli, P.

2017-05-01

Determining appropriate spatial resolution of digital elevation model (DEM) is a key step for effective landslide analysis based on remote sensing data. Several studies demonstrated that choosing the finest DEM resolution is not always the best solution. Various DEM resolutions can be applicable for diverse landslide applications. Thus, this study aims to assess the influence of special resolution on automatic landslide mapping. Pixel-based approach using parametric and non-parametric classification methods, namely feed forward neural network (FFNN) and maximum likelihood classification (ML), were applied in this study. Additionally, this allowed to determine the impact of used classification method for selection of DEM resolution. Landslide affected areas were mapped based on four DEMs generated at 1 m, 2 m, 5 m and 10 m spatial resolution from airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. The performance of the landslide mapping was then evaluated by applying landslide inventory map and computation of confusion matrix. The results of this study suggests that the finest scale of DEM is not always the best fit, however working at 1 m DEM resolution on micro-topography scale, can show different results. The best performance was found at 5 m DEM-resolution for FFNN and 1 m DEM resolution for results. The best performance was found to be using 5 m DEM-resolution for FFNN and 1 m DEM resolution for ML classification.

Multi-objective calibration and uncertainty analysis of hydrologic models; A comparative study between formal and informal methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafii, M.; Tolson, B.; Matott, L. S.

2012-04-01

Hydrologic modeling has benefited from significant developments over the past two decades. This has resulted in building of higher levels of complexity into hydrologic models, which eventually makes the model evaluation process (parameter estimation via calibration and uncertainty analysis) more challenging. In order to avoid unreasonable parameter estimates, many researchers have suggested implementation of multi-criteria calibration schemes. Furthermore, for predictive hydrologic models to be useful, proper consideration of uncertainty is essential. Consequently, recent research has emphasized comprehensive model assessment procedures in which multi-criteria parameter estimation is combined with statistically-based uncertainty analysis routines such as Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Such a procedure relies on the use of formal likelihood functions based on statistical assumptions, and moreover, the Bayesian inference structured on MCMC samplers requires a considerably large number of simulations. Due to these issues, especially in complex non-linear hydrological models, a variety of alternative informal approaches have been proposed for uncertainty analysis in the multi-criteria context. This study aims at exploring a number of such informal uncertainty analysis techniques in multi-criteria calibration of hydrological models. The informal methods addressed in this study are (i) Pareto optimality which quantifies the parameter uncertainty using the Pareto solutions, (ii) DDS-AU which uses the weighted sum of objective functions to derive the prediction limits, and (iii) GLUE which describes the total uncertainty through identification of behavioral solutions. The main objective is to compare such methods with MCMC-based Bayesian inference with respect to factors such as computational burden, and predictive capacity, which are evaluated based on multiple comparative measures. The measures for comparison are calculated both for calibration and evaluation periods. The uncertainty analysis methodologies are applied to a simple 5-parameter rainfall-runoff model, called HYMOD.

Ultra-Broadband Infrared Pulses from a Potassium-Titanyl Phosphate Optical Parametric Amplifier for VIS-IR-SFG Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaienko, Oleksandr; Borguet, Eric

A non-collinear KTP-OPA to provide ultra-broadband mid-infrared pulses was designed and characterized. With proper pulse-front and phase correction, the system has a potential for high-time resolution vibrational VIS-IR-SFG spectroscopy.

Application of Multi-task Lasso Regression in the Stellar Parametrization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, L. N.; Zhang, P. A.

2015-01-01

The multi-task learning approaches have attracted the increasing attention in the fields of machine learning, computer vision, and artificial intelligence. By utilizing the correlations in tasks, learning multiple related tasks simultaneously is better than learning each task independently. An efficient multi-task Lasso (Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection and Operator) regression algorithm is proposed in this paper to estimate the physical parameters of stellar spectra. It not only makes different physical parameters share the common features, but also can effectively preserve their own peculiar features. Experiments were done based on the ELODIE data simulated with the stellar atmospheric simulation model, and on the SDSS data released by the American large survey Sloan. The precision of the model is better than those of the methods in the related literature, especially for the acceleration of gravity (lg g) and the chemical abundance ([Fe/H]). In the experiments, we changed the resolution of the spectrum, and applied the noises with different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to the spectrum, so as to illustrate the stability of the model. The results show that the model is influenced by both the resolution and the noise. But the influence of the noise is larger than that of the resolution. In general, the multi-task Lasso regression algorithm is easy to operate, has a strong stability, and also can improve the overall accuracy of the model.

Non-Parametric Model Drift Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

de,la,n,o,the,m, facto ,et,des,of Group num: 42, TC(X;Y_j): 0.083 42:resolution,council,resolutions,draft,recalling,pursuant,reaffirming,sponsors...Y_j): 0.019 80: posts ,cost, post ,expenditure,overall,infrastructure,expected,operational,external, savings Group num: 81, TC(X;Y_j): 0.018 81...90, TC(X;Y_j): 0.014 90:its,expresses,mandate,reiterates,appreciation,expressing,endorsed,reiterated, ex peditiously,literature Group num: 91, TC(X

Bayesian deconvolution and quantification of metabolites in complex 1D NMR spectra using BATMAN.

PubMed

Hao, Jie; Liebeke, Manuel; Astle, William; De Iorio, Maria; Bundy, Jacob G; Ebbels, Timothy M D

2014-01-01

Data processing for 1D NMR spectra is a key bottleneck for metabolomic and other complex-mixture studies, particularly where quantitative data on individual metabolites are required. We present a protocol for automated metabolite deconvolution and quantification from complex NMR spectra by using the Bayesian automated metabolite analyzer for NMR (BATMAN) R package. BATMAN models resonances on the basis of a user-controllable set of templates, each of which specifies the chemical shifts, J-couplings and relative peak intensities for a single metabolite. Peaks are allowed to shift position slightly between spectra, and peak widths are allowed to vary by user-specified amounts. NMR signals not captured by the templates are modeled non-parametrically by using wavelets. The protocol covers setting up user template libraries, optimizing algorithmic input parameters, improving prior information on peak positions, quality control and evaluation of outputs. The outputs include relative concentration estimates for named metabolites together with associated Bayesian uncertainty estimates, as well as the fit of the remainder of the spectrum using wavelets. Graphical diagnostics allow the user to examine the quality of the fit for multiple spectra simultaneously. This approach offers a workflow to analyze large numbers of spectra and is expected to be useful in a wide range of metabolomics studies.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-03-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian spatial analysis of childhood diseases in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Tsiko, Rodney Godfrey

2015-09-02

Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of childhood morbidity and mortality because of the impact of a range of demographic, biological and social factors or situational events that directly precipitate ill health. In particular, under-five morbidity and mortality have increased in recent decades due to childhood diarrhoea, cough and fever. Understanding the geographic distribution of such diseases and their relationships to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention. Bayesian semi-parametric regression models were used to quantify the spatial risk of childhood diarrhoea, fever and cough, as well as associations between childhood diseases and a range of factors, after accounting for spatial correlation between neighbouring areas. Such semi-parametric regression models allow joint analysis of non-linear effects of continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed effects on childhood diseases. Modelling and inference made use of the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The analysis was based on data derived from the 1999, 2005/6 and 2010/11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHS). The results suggest that until recently, sex of child had little or no significant association with childhood diseases. However, a higher proportion of male than female children within a given province had a significant association with childhood cough, fever and diarrhoea. Compared to their counterparts in rural areas, children raised in an urban setting had less exposure to cough, fever and diarrhoea across all the survey years with the exception of diarrhoea in 2010. In addition, the link between sanitation, parental education, antenatal care, vaccination and childhood diseases was found to be both intuitive and counterintuitive. Results also showed marked geographical differences in the prevalence of childhood diarrhoea, fever and cough. Across all the survey years Manicaland province reported the highest cases of childhood diseases. There is also clear evidence of significant high prevalence of childhood diseases in Mashonaland than in Matabeleland provinces.

Joint Bayesian Component Separation and CMB Power Spectrum Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eriksen, H. K.; Jewell, J. B.; Dickinson, C.; Banday, A. J.; Gorski, K. M.; Lawrence, C. R.

2008-01-01

We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are (1) conditional sampling of foreground spectral parameters and (2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground- CMB posterior distribution and, therefore, all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multiresolution observations. To verify the method, we analyze simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3 yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 deg FWHM. The results from the actual 3 yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.

Analyzing degradation data with a random effects spline regression model

DOE PAGES

Fugate, Michael Lynn; Hamada, Michael Scott; Weaver, Brian Phillip

2017-03-17

This study proposes using a random effects spline regression model to analyze degradation data. Spline regression avoids having to specify a parametric function for the true degradation of an item. A distribution for the spline regression coefficients captures the variation of the true degradation curves from item to item. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real example using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach allows prediction of degradation of a population over time and estimation of reliability is easy to perform.

Analyzing degradation data with a random effects spline regression model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fugate, Michael Lynn; Hamada, Michael Scott; Weaver, Brian Phillip

This study proposes using a random effects spline regression model to analyze degradation data. Spline regression avoids having to specify a parametric function for the true degradation of an item. A distribution for the spline regression coefficients captures the variation of the true degradation curves from item to item. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real example using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach allows prediction of degradation of a population over time and estimation of reliability is easy to perform.

Multi-parametric centrality method for graph network models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Sergei Evgenievich; Gorlushkina, Natalia Nikolaevna; Ivanova, Lubov Nikolaevna

2018-04-01

The graph model networks are investigated to determine centrality, weights and the significance of vertices. For centrality analysis appliesa typical method that includesany one of the properties of graph vertices. In graph theory, methods of analyzing centrality are used: in terms by degree, closeness, betweenness, radiality, eccentricity, page-rank, status, Katz and eigenvector. We have proposed a new method of multi-parametric centrality, which includes a number of basic properties of the network member. The mathematical model of multi-parametric centrality method is developed. Comparison of results for the presented method with the centrality methods is carried out. For evaluate the results for the multi-parametric centrality methodthe graph model with hundreds of vertices is analyzed. The comparative analysis showed the accuracy of presented method, includes simultaneously a number of basic properties of vertices.

DCE-MRI, DW-MRI, and MRS in Cancer: Challenges and Advantages of Implementing Qualitative and Quantitative Multi-parametric Imaging in the Clinic

PubMed Central

Winfield, Jessica M.; Payne, Geoffrey S.; Weller, Alex; deSouza, Nandita M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) offers a unique insight into tumor biology by combining functional MRI techniques that inform on cellularity (diffusion-weighted MRI), vascular properties (dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI), and metabolites (magnetic resonance spectroscopy) and has scope to provide valuable information for prognostication and response assessment. Challenges in the application of mpMRI in the clinic include the technical considerations in acquiring good quality functional MRI data, development of robust techniques for analysis, and clinical interpretation of the results. This article summarizes the technical challenges in acquisition and analysis of multi-parametric MRI data before reviewing the key applications of multi-parametric MRI in clinical research and practice. PMID:27748710

Variational dynamic background model for keyword spotting in handwritten documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Gaurav; Wshah, Safwan; Govindaraju, Venu

2013-12-01

We propose a bayesian framework for keyword spotting in handwritten documents. This work is an extension to our previous work where we proposed dynamic background model, DBM for keyword spotting that takes into account the local character level scores and global word level scores to learn a logistic regression classifier to separate keywords from non-keywords. In this work, we add a bayesian layer on top of the DBM called the variational dynamic background model, VDBM. The logistic regression classifier uses the sigmoid function to separate keywords from non-keywords. The sigmoid function being neither convex nor concave, exact inference of VDBM becomes intractable. An expectation maximization step is proposed to do approximate inference. The advantage of VDBM over the DBM is multi-fold. Firstly, being bayesian, it prevents over-fitting of data. Secondly, it provides better modeling of data and an improved prediction of unseen data. VDBM is evaluated on the IAM dataset and the results prove that it outperforms our prior work and other state of the art line based word spotting system.

Classification and Compression of Multi-Resolution Vectors: A Tree Structured Vector Quantizer Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-01-01

their expression profile and for classification of cells into tumerous and non- tumerous classes. Then we will present a parallel tree method for... cancerous cells. We will use the same dataset and use tree structured classifiers with multi-resolution analysis for classifying cancerous from non- cancerous ...cells. We have the expressions of 4096 genes from 98 different cell types. Of these 98, 72 are cancerous while 26 are non- cancerous . We are interested

Assessment of Data Fusion Algorithms for Earth Observation Change Detection Processes

PubMed Central

Molina, Iñigo; Martinez, Estibaliz; Morillo, Carmen; Velasco, Jesus; Jara, Alvaro

2016-01-01

In this work a parametric multi-sensor Bayesian data fusion approach and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used for a Change Detection problem. For this purpose two sets of SPOT5-PAN images have been used, which are in turn used for Change Detection Indices (CDIs) calculation. For minimizing radiometric differences, a methodology based on zonal “invariant features” is suggested. The choice of one or the other CDI for a change detection process is a subjective task as each CDI is probably more or less sensitive to certain types of changes. Likewise, this idea might be employed to create and improve a “change map”, which can be accomplished by means of the CDI’s informational content. For this purpose, information metrics such as the Shannon Entropy and “Specific Information” have been used to weight the changes and no-changes categories contained in a certain CDI and thus introduced in the Bayesian information fusion algorithm. Furthermore, the parameters of the probability density functions (pdf’s) that best fit the involved categories have also been estimated. Conversely, these considerations are not necessary for mapping procedures based on the discriminant functions of a SVM. This work has confirmed the capabilities of probabilistic information fusion procedure under these circumstances. PMID:27706048

A high-throughput, multi-channel photon-counting detector with picosecond timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapington, J. S.; Fraser, G. W.; Miller, G. M.; Ashton, T. J. R.; Jarron, P.; Despeisse, M.; Powolny, F.; Howorth, J.; Milnes, J.

2009-06-01

High-throughput photon counting with high time resolution is a niche application area where vacuum tubes can still outperform solid-state devices. Applications in the life sciences utilizing time-resolved spectroscopies, particularly in the growing field of proteomics, will benefit greatly from performance enhancements in event timing and detector throughput. The HiContent project is a collaboration between the University of Leicester Space Research Centre, the Microelectronics Group at CERN, Photek Ltd., and end-users at the Gray Cancer Institute and the University of Manchester. The goal is to develop a detector system specifically designed for optical proteomics, capable of high content (multi-parametric) analysis at high throughput. The HiContent detector system is being developed to exploit this niche market. It combines multi-channel, high time resolution photon counting in a single miniaturized detector system with integrated electronics. The combination of enabling technologies; small pore microchannel plate devices with very high time resolution, and high-speed multi-channel ASIC electronics developed for the LHC at CERN, provides the necessary building blocks for a high-throughput detector system with up to 1024 parallel counting channels and 20 ps time resolution. We describe the detector and electronic design, discuss the current status of the HiContent project and present the results from a 64-channel prototype system. In the absence of an operational detector, we present measurements of the electronics performance using a pulse generator to simulate detector events. Event timing results from the NINO high-speed front-end ASIC captured using a fast digital oscilloscope are compared with data taken with the proposed electronic configuration which uses the multi-channel HPTDC timing ASIC.

Characterization and modelling of the spatially- and spectrally-varying point-spread function in hyperspectral imaging systems for computational correction of axial optical aberrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Špiclin, Žiga; Bürmen, Miran; Pernuš, Franjo; Likar, Boštjan

2012-03-01

Spatial resolution of hyperspectral imaging systems can vary significantly due to axial optical aberrations that originate from wavelength-induced index-of-refraction variations of the imaging optics. For systems that have a broad spectral range, the spatial resolution will vary significantly both with respect to the acquisition wavelength and with respect to the spatial position within each spectral image. Variations of the spatial resolution can be effectively characterized as part of the calibration procedure by a local image-based estimation of the pointspread function (PSF) of the hyperspectral imaging system. The estimated PSF can then be used in the image deconvolution methods to improve the spatial resolution of the spectral images. We estimated the PSFs from the spectral images of a line grid geometric caliber. From individual line segments of the line grid, the PSF was obtained by a non-parametric estimation procedure that used an orthogonal series representation of the PSF. By using the non-parametric estimation procedure, the PSFs were estimated at different spatial positions and at different wavelengths. The variations of the spatial resolution were characterized by the radius and the fullwidth half-maximum of each PSF and by the modulation transfer function, computed from images of USAF1951 resolution target. The estimation and characterization of the PSFs and the image deconvolution based spatial resolution enhancement were tested on images obtained by a hyperspectral imaging system with an acousto-optic tunable filter in the visible spectral range. The results demonstrate that the spatial resolution of the acquired spectral images can be significantly improved using the estimated PSFs and image deconvolution methods.

SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Philipp; Jasche, Jens; Enßlin, Torsten A.

2016-11-01

This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on self organizing maps and Bayesian inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the self organizing map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian information criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide applications of our method to cosmological data. In particular, we present results of a correlation analysis between galaxy and active galactic nucleus (AGN) properties provided by the SDSS catalog with the cosmic large-scale-structure (LSS). The results indicate that the combined galaxy and LSS dataset indeed is clustered into several sub-samples of data with different average properties (for example different stellar masses or web-type classifications). The majority of data clusters appear to have a similar correlation structure between galaxy properties and the LSS. In particular we revealed a positive and linear dependency between the stellar mass, the absolute magnitude and the color of a galaxy with the corresponding cosmic density field. A remaining subset of data shows inverted correlations, which might be an artifact of non-linear redshift distortions.

Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

2016-12-01

We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will demonstrate how Bayesian networks are used to extract new insights about coastal morphologic behavior, assess impacts to societal and ecological systems, and communicate probabilistic predictions to decision makers.

Resolution enhancement of robust Bayesian pre-stack inversion in the frequency domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Xingyao; Li, Kun; Zong, Zhaoyun

2016-10-01

AVO/AVA (amplitude variation with an offset or angle) inversion is one of the most practical and useful approaches to estimating model parameters. So far, publications on AVO inversion in the Fourier domain have been quite limited in view of its poor stability and sensitivity to noise compared with time-domain inversion. For the resolution and stability of AVO inversion in the Fourier domain, a novel robust Bayesian pre-stack AVO inversion based on the mixed domain formulation of stationary convolution is proposed which could solve the instability and achieve superior resolution. The Fourier operator will be integrated into the objective equation and it avoids the Fourier inverse transform in our inversion process. Furthermore, the background constraints of model parameters are taken into consideration to improve the stability and reliability of inversion which could compensate for the low-frequency components of seismic signals. Besides, the different frequency components of seismic signals can realize decoupling automatically. This will help us to solve the inverse problem by means of multi-component successive iterations and the convergence precision of the inverse problem could be improved. So, superior resolution compared with the conventional time-domain pre-stack inversion could be achieved easily. Synthetic tests illustrate that the proposed method could achieve high-resolution results with a high degree of agreement with the theoretical model and verify the quality of anti-noise. Finally, applications on a field data case demonstrate that the proposed method could obtain stable inversion results of elastic parameters from pre-stack seismic data in conformity with the real logging data.

Depth-resolved imaging of colon tumor using optical coherence tomography and fluorescence laminar optical tomography (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Qinggong; Frank, Aaron; Wang, Jianting; Chen, Chao-wei; Jin, Lily; Lin, Jon; Chan, Joanne M.; Chen, Yu

2016-03-01

Early detection of neoplastic changes remains a critical challenge in clinical cancer diagnosis and treatment. Many cancers arise from epithelial layers such as those of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. Current standard endoscopic technology is unable to detect those subsurface lesions. Since cancer development is associated with both morphological and molecular alterations, imaging technologies that can quantitative image tissue's morphological and molecular biomarkers and assess the depth extent of a lesion in real time, without the need for tissue excision, would be a major advance in GI cancer diagnostics and therapy. In this research, we investigated the feasibility of multi-modal optical imaging including high-resolution optical coherence tomography (OCT) and depth-resolved high-sensitivity fluorescence laminar optical tomography (FLOT) for structural and molecular imaging. APC (adenomatous polyposis coli) mice model were imaged using OCT and FLOT and the correlated histopathological diagnosis was obtained. Quantitative structural (the scattering coefficient) and molecular imaging parameters (fluorescence intensity) from OCT and FLOT images were developed for multi-parametric analysis. This multi-modal imaging method has demonstrated the feasibility for more accurate diagnosis with 87.4% (87.3%) for sensitivity (specificity) which gives the most optimal diagnosis (the largest area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve). This project results in a new non-invasive multi-modal imaging platform for improved GI cancer detection, which is expected to have a major impact on detection, diagnosis, and characterization of GI cancers, as well as a wide range of epithelial cancers.

Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

PubMed Central

Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

2010-01-01

The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

Capabilities of stochastic rainfall models as data providers for urban hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

For planning of urban drainage systems using hydrological models, long, continuous precipitation series with high temporal resolution are needed. Since observed time series are often too short or not available everywhere, the use of synthetic precipitation is a common alternative. This contribution compares three precipitation models regarding their suitability to provide 5 minute continuous rainfall time series for a) sizing of drainage networks for urban flood protection and b) dimensioning of combined sewage systems for pollution reduction. The rainfall models are a parametric stochastic model (Haberlandt et al., 2008), a non-parametric probabilistic approach (Bárdossy, 1998) and a stochastic downscaling of dynamically simulated rainfall (Berg et al., 2013); all models are operated both as single site and multi-site generators. The models are applied with regionalised parameters assuming that there is no station at the target location. Rainfall and discharge characteristics are utilised for evaluation of the model performance. The simulation results are compared against results obtained from reference rainfall stations not used for parameter estimation. The rainfall simulations are carried out for the federal states of Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony in Germany and the discharge simulations for the drainage networks of the cities of Hamburg, Brunswick and Freiburg. Altogether, the results show comparable simulation performance for the three models, good capabilities for single site simulations but low skills for multi-site simulations. Remarkably, there is no significant difference in simulation performance comparing the tasks flood protection with pollution reduction, so the models are finally able to simulate both the extremes and the long term characteristics of rainfall equally well. Bárdossy, A., 1998. Generating precipitation time series using simulated annealing. Wat. Resour. Res., 34(7): 1737-1744. Berg, P., Wagner, S., Kunstmann, H., Schädler, G., 2013. High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: part I — validation. Climate Dynamics, 40(1): 401-414. Haberlandt, U., Ebner von Eschenbach, A.-D., Buchwald, I., 2008. A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12: 1353-1367.

Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Size from the RSP Data: Validation Using in Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexandrov, Mikhail D.; Cairns, Brian; Sinclair, Kenneth; Wasilewski, Andrzej P.; Ziemba, Luke; Crosbie, Ewan; Hair, John; Hu, Yongxiang; Hostetler, Chris; Stamnes, Snorre

2016-01-01

We present comparisons of cloud droplet size distributions retrieved from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) data with correlative in situ measurements made during the North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). This field experiment was based at St. Johns airport, Newfoundland, Canada with the latest deployment in May - June 2016. RSP was onboard the NASA C-130 aircraft together with an array of in situ and other remote sensing instrumentation. The RSP is an along-track scanner measuring polarized and total reflectances in9 spectral channels. Its unique high angular resolution allows for characterization of liquid water droplet size using the rainbow structure observed in the polarized reflectances in the scattering angle range between 135 and 165 degrees. A parametric fitting algorithm applied to the polarized reflectances provides retrievals of the droplet effective radius and variance assuming a prescribed size distribution shape (gamma distribution). In addition to this, we use a non-parametric method, Rainbow Fourier Transform (RFT), which allows us to retrieve the droplet size distribution (DSD) itself. The latter is important in the case of clouds with complex structure, which results in multi-modal DSDs. During NAAMES the aircraft performed a number of flight patterns specifically designed for comparison of remote sensing retrievals and in situ measurements. These patterns consisted of two flight segments above the same straight ground track. One of these segments was flown above clouds allowing for remote sensing measurements, while the other was at the cloud top where cloud droplets were sampled. We compare the DSDs retrieved from the RSP data with in situ measurements made by the Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP). The comparisons show generally good agreement with deviations explainable by the position of the aircraft within cloud and by presence of additional cloud layers in RSP view that do not contribute to the in situ DSDs. In the latter case the distributions retrieved from the RSP data were consistent with the multi-layer cloud structures observed in the correlative High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) profiles. The comparison results provide a rare validation of polarimetric droplet size retrieval techniques, which can be used for analysis of satellite data on global scale.

An adaptive Bayesian inversion for upper-mantle structure using surface waves and scattered body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilon, Zachary; Fischer, Karen M.; Dalton, Colleen A.

2018-07-01

We present a methodology for 1-D imaging of upper-mantle structure using a Bayesian approach that incorporates a novel combination of seismic data types and an adaptive parametrization based on piecewise discontinuous splines. Our inversion algorithm lays the groundwork for improved seismic velocity models of the lithosphere and asthenosphere by harnessing the recent expansion of large seismic arrays and computational power alongside sophisticated data analysis. Careful processing of P- and S-wave arrivals isolates converted phases generated at velocity gradients between the mid-crust and 300 km depth. This data is allied with ambient noise and earthquake Rayleigh wave phase velocities to obtain detailed VS and VP velocity models. Synthetic tests demonstrate that converted phases are necessary to accurately constrain velocity gradients, and S-p phases are particularly important for resolving mantle structure, while surface waves are necessary for capturing absolute velocities. We apply the method to several stations in the northwest and north-central United States, finding that the imaged structure improves upon existing models by sharpening the vertical resolution of absolute velocity profiles, offering robust uncertainty estimates, and revealing mid-lithospheric velocity gradients indicative of thermochemical cratonic layering. This flexible method holds promise for increasingly detailed understanding of the upper mantle.

Characterizing Heterogeneity within Head and Neck Lesions Using Cluster Analysis of Multi-Parametric MRI Data

PubMed Central

Borri, Marco; Schmidt, Maria A.; Powell, Ceri; Koh, Dow-Mu; Riddell, Angela M.; Partridge, Mike; Bhide, Shreerang A.; Nutting, Christopher M.; Harrington, Kevin J.; Newbold, Katie L.; Leach, Martin O.

2015-01-01

Purpose To describe a methodology, based on cluster analysis, to partition multi-parametric functional imaging data into groups (or clusters) of similar functional characteristics, with the aim of characterizing functional heterogeneity within head and neck tumour volumes. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a set of longitudinal MRI data, analysing the evolution of the obtained sub-sets with treatment. Material and Methods The cluster analysis workflow was applied to a combination of dynamic contrast-enhanced and diffusion-weighted imaging MRI data from a cohort of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck patients. Cumulative distributions of voxels, containing pre and post-treatment data and including both primary tumours and lymph nodes, were partitioned into k clusters (k = 2, 3 or 4). Principal component analysis and cluster validation were employed to investigate data composition and to independently determine the optimal number of clusters. The evolution of the resulting sub-regions with induction chemotherapy treatment was assessed relative to the number of clusters. Results The clustering algorithm was able to separate clusters which significantly reduced in voxel number following induction chemotherapy from clusters with a non-significant reduction. Partitioning with the optimal number of clusters (k = 4), determined with cluster validation, produced the best separation between reducing and non-reducing clusters. Conclusion The proposed methodology was able to identify tumour sub-regions with distinct functional properties, independently separating clusters which were affected differently by treatment. This work demonstrates that unsupervised cluster analysis, with no prior knowledge of the data, can be employed to provide a multi-parametric characterization of functional heterogeneity within tumour volumes. PMID:26398888

Monitoring glucose, calcium, and magnesium levels in saliva as a non-invasive analysis by sequential injection multi-parametric determination.

PubMed

Machado, Ana; Maneiras, Rui; Bordalo, Adriano A; Mesquita, Raquel B R

2018-08-15

The use of saliva for diagnose and surveillance of systemic illnesses, and general health has been arousing great interest worldwide, emerging as a highly desirable goal in healthcare. The collection is non-invasive, stress-free, inexpensive, and simple representing a major asset. Glucose, calcium, and magnesium concentration are three major parameters evaluated in clinical context due to their essential role in a wide range of biochemical reactions, and consequently many health disorders. In this work, a spectrophotometric sequential injection method is described for the fast screening of glucose, calcium, and magnesium in saliva samples. The glucose determination reaction involves the oxidation of the aldehyde functional group present in glucose with simultaneous reduction of 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid (DNS) to 3-amino, 5-nitrosalicylic acid under alkaline conditions, followed by the development of colour. The determination of both metals is based on their reaction with cresolphtalein complexone (CPC), and the interference of calcium in the magnesium determination minimized by ethylene glycol-bis[β-aminoethyl ether]-N,N,N',N'-tetraacetic acid (EGTA). The developed multi-parametric method enabled dynamic ranges of 50 - 300 mg/dL for glucose, 0.1 - 2 mg/dL for calcium, and 0.1 - 0.5 mg/dL for magnesium. Determination rates of 28, 60, 52 h -1 were achieved for glucose, calcium, and magnesium, respectively. Less than 300 µL of saliva is required for the multi-parametric determination due to saliva viscosity and inherent necessity of dilution prior to analysis. RSDs lower than 5% were obtained, and the results agreed with those obtained by reference methods, while recovery tests confirmed its accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Personalized Multi-Student Improvement Based on Bayesian Cybernetics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaburlasos, Vassilis G.; Marinagi, Catherine C.; Tsoukalas, Vassilis Th.

2008-01-01

This work presents innovative cybernetics (feedback) techniques based on Bayesian statistics for drawing questions from an Item Bank towards personalized multi-student improvement. A novel software tool, namely "Module for Adaptive Assessment of Students" (or, "MAAS" for short), implements the proposed (feedback) techniques. In conclusion, a pilot…

Bayesian Inference on the Radio-quietness of Gamma-ray Pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hoi-Fung; Hui, Chung Yue; Kong, Albert K. H.; Takata, Jumpei

2018-04-01

For the first time we demonstrate using a robust Bayesian approach to analyze the populations of radio-quiet (RQ) and radio-loud (RL) gamma-ray pulsars. We quantify their differences and obtain their distributions of the radio-cone opening half-angle δ and the magnetic inclination angle α by Bayesian inference. In contrast to the conventional frequentist point estimations that might be non-representative when the distribution is highly skewed or multi-modal, which is often the case when data points are scarce, Bayesian statistics displays the complete posterior distribution that the uncertainties can be readily obtained regardless of the skewness and modality. We found that the spin period, the magnetic field strength at the light cylinder, the spin-down power, the gamma-ray-to-X-ray flux ratio, and the spectral curvature significance of the two groups of pulsars exhibit significant differences at the 99% level. Using Bayesian inference, we are able to infer the values and uncertainties of δ and α from the distribution of RQ and RL pulsars. We found that δ is between 10° and 35° and the distribution of α is skewed toward large values.

PET image reconstruction using multi-parametric anato-functional priors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehranian, Abolfazl; Belzunce, Martin A.; Niccolini, Flavia; Politis, Marios; Prieto, Claudia; Turkheimer, Federico; Hammers, Alexander; Reader, Andrew J.

2017-08-01

In this study, we investigate the application of multi-parametric anato-functional (MR-PET) priors for the maximum a posteriori (MAP) reconstruction of brain PET data in order to address the limitations of the conventional anatomical priors in the presence of PET-MR mismatches. In addition to partial volume correction benefits, the suitability of these priors for reconstruction of low-count PET data is also introduced and demonstrated, comparing to standard maximum-likelihood (ML) reconstruction of high-count data. The conventional local Tikhonov and total variation (TV) priors and current state-of-the-art anatomical priors including the Kaipio, non-local Tikhonov prior with Bowsher and Gaussian similarity kernels are investigated and presented in a unified framework. The Gaussian kernels are calculated using both voxel- and patch-based feature vectors. To cope with PET and MR mismatches, the Bowsher and Gaussian priors are extended to multi-parametric priors. In addition, we propose a modified joint Burg entropy prior that by definition exploits all parametric information in the MAP reconstruction of PET data. The performance of the priors was extensively evaluated using 3D simulations and two clinical brain datasets of [18F]florbetaben and [18F]FDG radiotracers. For simulations, several anato-functional mismatches were intentionally introduced between the PET and MR images, and furthermore, for the FDG clinical dataset, two PET-unique active tumours were embedded in the PET data. Our simulation results showed that the joint Burg entropy prior far outperformed the conventional anatomical priors in terms of preserving PET unique lesions, while still reconstructing functional boundaries with corresponding MR boundaries. In addition, the multi-parametric extension of the Gaussian and Bowsher priors led to enhanced preservation of edge and PET unique features and also an improved bias-variance performance. In agreement with the simulation results, the clinical results also showed that the Gaussian prior with voxel-based feature vectors, the Bowsher and the joint Burg entropy priors were the best performing priors. However, for the FDG dataset with simulated tumours, the TV and proposed priors were capable of preserving the PET-unique tumours. Finally, an important outcome was the demonstration that the MAP reconstruction of a low-count FDG PET dataset using the proposed joint entropy prior can lead to comparable image quality to a conventional ML reconstruction with up to 5 times more counts. In conclusion, multi-parametric anato-functional priors provide a solution to address the pitfalls of the conventional priors and are therefore likely to increase the diagnostic confidence in MR-guided PET image reconstructions.

Enhanced multi-protocol analysis via intelligent supervised embedding (EMPrAvISE): detecting prostate cancer on multi-parametric MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanath, Satish; Bloch, B. Nicholas; Chappelow, Jonathan; Patel, Pratik; Rofsky, Neil; Lenkinski, Robert; Genega, Elizabeth; Madabhushi, Anant

2011-03-01

Currently, there is significant interest in developing methods for quantitative integration of multi-parametric (structural, functional) imaging data with the objective of building automated meta-classifiers to improve disease detection, diagnosis, and prognosis. Such techniques are required to address the differences in dimensionalities and scales of individual protocols, while deriving an integrated multi-parametric data representation which best captures all disease-pertinent information available. In this paper, we present a scheme called Enhanced Multi-Protocol Analysis via Intelligent Supervised Embedding (EMPrAvISE); a powerful, generalizable framework applicable to a variety of domains for multi-parametric data representation and fusion. Our scheme utilizes an ensemble of embeddings (via dimensionality reduction, DR); thereby exploiting the variance amongst multiple uncorrelated embeddings in a manner similar to ensemble classifier schemes (e.g. Bagging, Boosting). We apply this framework to the problem of prostate cancer (CaP) detection on 12 3 Tesla pre-operative in vivo multi-parametric (T2-weighted, Dynamic Contrast Enhanced, and Diffusion-weighted) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies, in turn comprising a total of 39 2D planar MR images. We first align the different imaging protocols via automated image registration, followed by quantification of image attributes from individual protocols. Multiple embeddings are generated from the resultant high-dimensional feature space which are then combined intelligently to yield a single stable solution. Our scheme is employed in conjunction with graph embedding (for DR) and probabilistic boosting trees (PBTs) to detect CaP on multi-parametric MRI. Finally, a probabilistic pairwise Markov Random Field algorithm is used to apply spatial constraints to the result of the PBT classifier, yielding a per-voxel classification of CaP presence. Per-voxel evaluation of detection results against ground truth for CaP extent on MRI (obtained by spatially registering pre-operative MRI with available whole-mount histological specimens) reveals that EMPrAvISE yields a statistically significant improvement (AUC=0.77) over classifiers constructed from individual protocols (AUC=0.62, 0.62, 0.65, for T2w, DCE, DWI respectively) as well as one trained using multi-parametric feature concatenation (AUC=0.67).

Multi-Innovation Gradient Iterative Locally Weighted Learning Identification for A Nonlinear Ship Maneuvering System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Wei-wei; Ren, Jun-sheng; Li, Tie-shan

2018-06-01

This paper explores a highly accurate identification modeling approach for the ship maneuvering motion with fullscale trial. A multi-innovation gradient iterative (MIGI) approach is proposed to optimize the distance metric of locally weighted learning (LWL), and a novel non-parametric modeling technique is developed for a nonlinear ship maneuvering system. This proposed method's advantages are as follows: first, it can avoid the unmodeled dynamics and multicollinearity inherent to the conventional parametric model; second, it eliminates the over-learning or underlearning and obtains the optimal distance metric; and third, the MIGI is not sensitive to the initial parameter value and requires less time during the training phase. These advantages result in a highly accurate mathematical modeling technique that can be conveniently implemented in applications. To verify the characteristics of this mathematical model, two examples are used as the model platforms to study the ship maneuvering.

Parametric study using modal analysis of a bi-material plate with defects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esola, S.; Bartoli, I.; Horner, S. E.; Zheng, J. Q.; Kontsos, A.

2015-03-01

Global vibrational method feasibility as a non-destructive inspection tool for multi-layered composites is evaluated using a simulated parametric study approach. A finite element model of a composite consisting of two, isotropic layers of dissimilar materials and a third, thin isotropic layer of adhesive is constructed as the representative test subject. Next, artificial damage is inserted according to systematic variations of the defect morphology parameters. A free-vibrational modal analysis simulation is executed for pristine and damaged plate conditions. Finally, resultant mode shapes and natural frequencies are extracted, compared and analyzed for trends. Though other defect types may be explored, the focus of this research is on interfacial delamination and its effects on the global, free-vibrational behavior of a composite plate. This study is part of a multi-year research effort conducted for the U.S. Army Program Executive Office - Soldier.

Generalized parametric down conversion, many particle interferometry, and Bell's theorem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Hyung Sup

1992-01-01

A new field of multi-particle interferometry is introduced using a nonlinear optical spontaneous parametric down conversion (SPDC) of a photon into more than two photons. The study of SPDC using a realistic Hamiltonian in a multi-mode shows that at least a low conversion rate limit is possible. The down converted field exhibits many stronger nonclassical phenomena than the usual two photon parametric down conversion. Application of the multi-particle interferometry to a recently proposed many particle Bell's theorem on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen problem is given.

Forest Stand Canopy Structure Attribute Estimation from High Resolution Digital Airborne Imagery

Treesearch

Demetrios Gatziolis

2006-01-01

A study of forest stand canopy variable assessment using digital, airborne, multispectral imagery is presented. Variable estimation involves stem density, canopy closure, and mean crown diameter, and it is based on quantification of spatial autocorrelation among pixel digital numbers (DN) using variogram analysis and an alternative, non-parametric approach known as...

Non-intrusive reduced order modeling of nonlinear problems using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesthaven, J. S.; Ubbiali, S.

2018-06-01

We develop a non-intrusive reduced basis (RB) method for parametrized steady-state partial differential equations (PDEs). The method extracts a reduced basis from a collection of high-fidelity solutions via a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and employs artificial neural networks (ANNs), particularly multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), to accurately approximate the coefficients of the reduced model. The search for the optimal number of neurons and the minimum amount of training samples to avoid overfitting is carried out in the offline phase through an automatic routine, relying upon a joint use of the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. This guarantees a complete offline-online decoupling, leading to an efficient RB method - referred to as POD-NN - suitable also for general nonlinear problems with a non-affine parametric dependence. Numerical studies are presented for the nonlinear Poisson equation and for driven cavity viscous flows, modeled through the steady incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Both physical and geometrical parametrizations are considered. Several results confirm the accuracy of the POD-NN method and show the substantial speed-up enabled at the online stage as compared to a traditional RB strategy.

Quantitative estimation of source complexity in tsunami-source inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmer, Jan; Cummins, Phil R.; Hawkins, Rhys; Jakir Hossen, M.

2016-04-01

This work analyses tsunami waveforms to infer the spatiotemporal evolution of sea-surface displacement (the tsunami source) caused by earthquakes or other sources. Since the method considers sea-surface displacement directly, no assumptions about the fault or seafloor deformation are required. While this approach has no ability to study seismic aspects of rupture, it greatly simplifies the tsunami source estimation, making it much less dependent on subjective fault and deformation assumptions. This results in a more accurate sea-surface displacement evolution in the source region. The spatial discretization is by wavelet decomposition represented by a trans-D Bayesian tree structure. Wavelet coefficients are sampled by a reversible jump algorithm and additional coefficients are only included when required by the data. Therefore, source complexity is consistent with data information (parsimonious) and the method can adapt locally in both time and space. Since the source complexity is unknown and locally adapts, no regularization is required, resulting in more meaningful displacement magnitudes. By estimating displacement uncertainties in a Bayesian framework we can study the effect of parametrization choice on the source estimate. Uncertainty arises from observation errors and limitations in the parametrization to fully explain the observations. As a result, parametrization choice is closely related to uncertainty estimation and profoundly affects inversion results. Therefore, parametrization selection should be included in the inference process. Our inversion method is based on Bayesian model selection, a process which includes the choice of parametrization in the inference process and makes it data driven. A trans-dimensional (trans-D) model for the spatio-temporal discretization is applied here to include model selection naturally and efficiently in the inference by sampling probabilistically over parameterizations. The trans-D process results in better uncertainty estimates since the parametrization adapts parsimoniously (in both time and space) according to the local data resolving power and the uncertainty about the parametrization choice is included in the uncertainty estimates. We apply the method to the tsunami waveforms recorded for the great 2011 Japan tsunami. All data are recorded on high-quality sensors (ocean-bottom pressure sensors, GPS gauges, and DART buoys). The sea-surface Green's functions are computed by JAGURS and include linear dispersion effects. By treating the noise level at each gauge as unknown, individual gauge contributions to the source estimate are appropriately and objectively weighted. The results show previously unreported detail of the source, quantify uncertainty spatially, and produce excellent data fits. The source estimate shows an elongated peak trench-ward from the hypo centre that closely follows the trench, indicating significant sea-floor deformation near the trench. Also notable is a bi-modal (negative to positive) displacement feature in the northern part of the source near the trench. The feature has ~2 m amplitude and is clearly resolved by the data with low uncertainties.

Validity Study in Multidimensional Latent Space and Efficient Computerized Adaptive Testing. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

This paper is the final report of a multi-year project sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) in 1987 through 1990. The main objectives of the research summarized were to: investigate the non-parametric approach to the estimation of the operating characteristics of discrete item responses; revise and strengthen the package computer…

Application of Multi-task Lasso Regression in the Parametrization of Stellar Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Li-Na; Zhang, Pei-Ai

2015-07-01

The multi-task learning approaches have attracted the increasing attention in the fields of machine learning, computer vision, and artificial intelligence. By utilizing the correlations in tasks, learning multiple related tasks simultaneously is better than learning each task independently. An efficient multi-task Lasso (Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection and Operator) regression algorithm is proposed in this paper to estimate the physical parameters of stellar spectra. It not only can obtain the information about the common features of the different physical parameters, but also can preserve effectively their own peculiar features. Experiments were done based on the ELODIE synthetic spectral data simulated with the stellar atmospheric model, and on the SDSS data released by the American large-scale survey Sloan. The estimation precision of our model is better than those of the methods in the related literature, especially for the estimates of the gravitational acceleration (lg g) and the chemical abundance ([Fe/H]). In the experiments we changed the spectral resolution, and applied the noises with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) to the spectral data, so as to illustrate the stability of the model. The results show that the model is influenced by both the resolution and the noise. But the influence of the noise is larger than that of the resolution. In general, the multi-task Lasso regression algorithm is easy to operate, it has a strong stability, and can also improve the overall prediction accuracy of the model.

C 3, A Command-line Catalog Cross-match Tool for Large Astrophysical Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccio, Giuseppe; Brescia, Massimo; Cavuoti, Stefano; Mercurio, Amata; di Giorgio, Anna Maria; Molinari, Sergio

2017-02-01

Modern Astrophysics is based on multi-wavelength data organized into large and heterogeneous catalogs. Hence, the need for efficient, reliable and scalable catalog cross-matching methods plays a crucial role in the era of the petabyte scale. Furthermore, multi-band data have often very different angular resolution, requiring the highest generality of cross-matching features, mainly in terms of region shape and resolution. In this work we present C 3 (Command-line Catalog Cross-match), a multi-platform application designed to efficiently cross-match massive catalogs. It is based on a multi-core parallel processing paradigm and conceived to be executed as a stand-alone command-line process or integrated within any generic data reduction/analysis pipeline, providing the maximum flexibility to the end-user, in terms of portability, parameter configuration, catalog formats, angular resolution, region shapes, coordinate units and cross-matching types. Using real data, extracted from public surveys, we discuss the cross-matching capabilities and computing time efficiency also through a direct comparison with some publicly available tools, chosen among the most used within the community, and representative of different interface paradigms. We verified that the C 3 tool has excellent capabilities to perform an efficient and reliable cross-matching between large data sets. Although the elliptical cross-match and the parametric handling of angular orientation and offset are known concepts in the astrophysical context, their availability in the presented command-line tool makes C 3 competitive in the context of public astronomical tools.

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference – Why and How

PubMed Central

Müller, Peter; Mitra, Riten

2013-01-01

We review inference under models with nonparametric Bayesian (BNP) priors. The discussion follows a set of examples for some common inference problems. The examples are chosen to highlight problems that are challenging for standard parametric inference. We discuss inference for density estimation, clustering, regression and for mixed effects models with random effects distributions. While we focus on arguing for the need for the flexibility of BNP models, we also review some of the more commonly used BNP models, thus hopefully answering a bit of both questions, why and how to use BNP. PMID:24368932

Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy enables deep-cell super-resolution imaging of heterochromatin in live human embryonic stem cells.

PubMed

Hu, Ying S; Zhu, Quan; Elkins, Keri; Tse, Kevin; Li, Yu; Fitzpatrick, James A J; Verma, Inder M; Cang, Hu

2013-01-01

Heterochromatin in the nucleus of human embryonic cells plays an important role in the epigenetic regulation of gene expression. The architecture of heterochromatin and its dynamic organization remain elusive because of the lack of fast and high-resolution deep-cell imaging tools. We enable this task by advancing instrumental and algorithmic implementation of the localization-based super-resolution technique. We present light-sheet Bayesian super-resolution microscopy (LSBM). We adapt light-sheet illumination for super-resolution imaging by using a novel prism-coupled condenser design to illuminate a thin slice of the nucleus with high signal-to-noise ratio. Coupled with a Bayesian algorithm that resolves overlapping fluorophores from high-density areas, we show, for the first time, nanoscopic features of the heterochromatin structure in both fixed and live human embryonic stem cells. The enhanced temporal resolution allows capturing the dynamic change of heterochromatin with a lateral resolution of 50-60 nm on a time scale of 2.3 s. Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy opens up broad new possibilities of probing nanometer-scale nuclear structures and real-time sub-cellular processes and other previously difficult-to-access intracellular regions of living cells at the single-molecule, and single cell level.

Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy enables deep-cell super-resolution imaging of heterochromatin in live human embryonic stem cells

PubMed Central

Hu, Ying S; Zhu, Quan; Elkins, Keri; Tse, Kevin; Li, Yu; Fitzpatrick, James A J; Verma, Inder M; Cang, Hu

2016-01-01

Background Heterochromatin in the nucleus of human embryonic cells plays an important role in the epigenetic regulation of gene expression. The architecture of heterochromatin and its dynamic organization remain elusive because of the lack of fast and high-resolution deep-cell imaging tools. We enable this task by advancing instrumental and algorithmic implementation of the localization-based super-resolution technique. Results We present light-sheet Bayesian super-resolution microscopy (LSBM). We adapt light-sheet illumination for super-resolution imaging by using a novel prism-coupled condenser design to illuminate a thin slice of the nucleus with high signal-to-noise ratio. Coupled with a Bayesian algorithm that resolves overlapping fluorophores from high-density areas, we show, for the first time, nanoscopic features of the heterochromatin structure in both fixed and live human embryonic stem cells. The enhanced temporal resolution allows capturing the dynamic change of heterochromatin with a lateral resolution of 50–60 nm on a time scale of 2.3 s. Conclusion Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy opens up broad new possibilities of probing nanometer-scale nuclear structures and real-time sub-cellular processes and other previously difficult-to-access intracellular regions of living cells at the single-molecule, and single cell level. PMID:27795878

The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selig, Marco

2014-12-01

We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

PubMed

Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

2006-01-01

Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

Semiparametric time varying coefficient model for matched case-crossover studies.

PubMed

Ortega-Villa, Ana Maria; Kim, Inyoung; Kim, H

2017-03-15

In matched case-crossover studies, it is generally accepted that the covariates on which a case and associated controls are matched cannot exert a confounding effect on independent predictors included in the conditional logistic regression model. This is because any stratum effect is removed by the conditioning on the fixed number of sets of the case and controls in the stratum. Hence, the conditional logistic regression model is not able to detect any effects associated with the matching covariates by stratum. However, some matching covariates such as time often play an important role as an effect modification leading to incorrect statistical estimation and prediction. Therefore, we propose three approaches to evaluate effect modification by time. The first is a parametric approach, the second is a semiparametric penalized approach, and the third is a semiparametric Bayesian approach. Our parametric approach is a two-stage method, which uses conditional logistic regression in the first stage and then estimates polynomial regression in the second stage. Our semiparametric penalized and Bayesian approaches are one-stage approaches developed by using regression splines. Our semiparametric one stage approach allows us to not only detect the parametric relationship between the predictor and binary outcomes, but also evaluate nonparametric relationships between the predictor and time. We demonstrate the advantage of our semiparametric one-stage approaches using both a simulation study and an epidemiological example of a 1-4 bi-directional case-crossover study of childhood aseptic meningitis with drinking water turbidity. We also provide statistical inference for the semiparametric Bayesian approach using Bayes Factors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Low-threshold collinear parametric Raman comb generation in calcite under 532 and 1064 nm picosecond laser pumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smetanin, S. N.; Jelínek, M., Jr.; Kubeček, V.; Jelínková, H.

2015-09-01

Optimal conditions of low-threshold collinear parametric Raman comb generation in calcite (CaCO3) are experimentally investigated under 20 ps laser pulse excitation, in agreement with the theoretical study. The collinear parametric Raman generation of the highest number of Raman components in the short calcite crystals corresponding to the optimal condition of Stokes-anti-Stokes coupling was achieved. At the excitation wavelength of 1064 nm, using the optimum-length crystal resulted in the effective multi-octave frequency Raman comb generation containing up to five anti-Stokes and more than four Stokes components (from 674 nm to 1978 nm). The 532 nm pumping resulted in the frequency Raman comb generation from the 477 nm 2nd anti-Stokes up to the 692 nm 4th Stokes component. Using the crystal with a non-optimal length leads to the Stokes components generation only with higher thresholds because of the cascade-like stimulated Raman scattering with suppressed parametric coupling.

Non-Metric Similarity Measures

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Sunil Aryal and Kai Ming Ting. (2015) A generic ensemble approach to estimate multi-dimensional likelihood in Bayesian classifier learning...Computational Intelligence. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coin.12063/abstract 5.2 List of peer-reviewed conference publications [3] Sunil Aryal...International Conference on Data Mining. 707-711. [4] Sunil Aryal, Kai Ming Ting, Jonathan R. Wells and Takashi Washio. (2014) Improv- ing iForest with

A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

Bayesian Multi-Trait Analysis Reveals a Useful Tool to Increase Oil Concentration and to Decrease Toxicity in Jatropha curcas L.

PubMed Central

Silva Junqueira, Vinícius; de Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo; Galvêas Laviola, Bruno; Lopes Bhering, Leonardo; Mendonça, Simone; Agostini Costa, Tania da Silveira; Antoniassi, Rosemar

2016-01-01

The biggest challenge for jatropha breeding is to identify superior genotypes that present high seed yield and seed oil content with reduced toxicity levels. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for three important traits (weight of 100 seed, oil seed content, and phorbol ester concentration), and to select superior genotypes to be used as progenitors in jatropha breeding. Additionally, the genotypic values and the genetic parameters estimated under the Bayesian multi-trait approach were used to evaluate different selection indices scenarios of 179 half-sib families. Three different scenarios and economic weights were considered. It was possible to simultaneously reduce toxicity and increase seed oil content and weight of 100 seed by using index selection based on genotypic value estimated by the Bayesian multi-trait approach. Indeed, we identified two families that present these characteristics by evaluating genetic diversity using the Ward clustering method, which suggested nine homogenous clusters. Future researches must integrate the Bayesian multi-trait methods with realized relationship matrix, aiming to build accurate selection indices models. PMID:27281340

An ROI multi-resolution compression method for 3D-HEVC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ti, Chunli; Guan, Yudong; Xu, Guodong; Teng, Yidan; Miao, Xinyuan

2017-09-01

3D High Efficiency Video Coding (3D-HEVC) provides a significant potential on increasing the compression ratio of multi-view RGB-D videos. However, the bit rate still rises dramatically with the improvement of the video resolution, which will bring challenges to the transmission network, especially the mobile network. This paper propose an ROI multi-resolution compression method for 3D-HEVC to better preserve the information in ROI on condition of limited bandwidth. This is realized primarily through ROI extraction and compression multi-resolution preprocessed video as alternative data according to the network conditions. At first, the semantic contours are detected by the modified structured forests to restrain the color textures inside objects. The ROI is then determined utilizing the contour neighborhood along with the face region and foreground area of the scene. Secondly, the RGB-D videos are divided into slices and compressed via 3D-HEVC under different resolutions for selection by the audiences and applications. Afterwards, the reconstructed low-resolution videos from 3D-HEVC encoder are directly up-sampled via Laplace transformation and used to replace the non-ROI areas of the high-resolution videos. Finally, the ROI multi-resolution compressed slices are obtained by compressing the ROI preprocessed videos with 3D-HEVC. The temporal and special details of non-ROI are reduced in the low-resolution videos, so the ROI will be better preserved by the encoder automatically. Experiments indicate that the proposed method can keep the key high-frequency information with subjective significance while the bit rate is reduced.

Model selection criterion in survival analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabey, Uǧur; Tutkun, Nihal Ata

2017-07-01

Survival analysis deals with time until occurrence of an event of interest such as death, recurrence of an illness, the failure of an equipment or divorce. There are various survival models with semi-parametric or parametric approaches used in medical, natural or social sciences. The decision on the most appropriate model for the data is an important point of the analysis. In literature Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria are used to select among nested models. In this study,the behavior of these information criterion is discussed for a real data set.

A discriminative model-constrained EM approach to 3D MRI brain tissue classification and intensity non-uniformity correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wels, Michael; Zheng, Yefeng; Huber, Martin; Hornegger, Joachim; Comaniciu, Dorin

2011-06-01

We describe a fully automated method for tissue classification, which is the segmentation into cerebral gray matter (GM), cerebral white matter (WM), and cerebral spinal fluid (CSF), and intensity non-uniformity (INU) correction in brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volumes. It combines supervised MRI modality-specific discriminative modeling and unsupervised statistical expectation maximization (EM) segmentation into an integrated Bayesian framework. While both the parametric observation models and the non-parametrically modeled INUs are estimated via EM during segmentation itself, a Markov random field (MRF) prior model regularizes segmentation and parameter estimation. Firstly, the regularization takes into account knowledge about spatial and appearance-related homogeneity of segments in terms of pairwise clique potentials of adjacent voxels. Secondly and more importantly, patient-specific knowledge about the global spatial distribution of brain tissue is incorporated into the segmentation process via unary clique potentials. They are based on a strong discriminative model provided by a probabilistic boosting tree (PBT) for classifying image voxels. It relies on the surrounding context and alignment-based features derived from a probabilistic anatomical atlas. The context considered is encoded by 3D Haar-like features of reduced INU sensitivity. Alignment is carried out fully automatically by means of an affine registration algorithm minimizing cross-correlation. Both types of features do not immediately use the observed intensities provided by the MRI modality but instead rely on specifically transformed features, which are less sensitive to MRI artifacts. Detailed quantitative evaluations on standard phantom scans and standard real-world data show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method. They also demonstrate relative superiority in comparison to other state-of-the-art approaches to this kind of computational task: our method achieves average Dice coefficients of 0.93 ± 0.03 (WM) and 0.90 ± 0.05 (GM) on simulated mono-spectral and 0.94 ± 0.02 (WM) and 0.92 ± 0.04 (GM) on simulated multi-spectral data from the BrainWeb repository. The scores are 0.81 ± 0.09 (WM) and 0.82 ± 0.06 (GM) and 0.87 ± 0.05 (WM) and 0.83 ± 0.12 (GM) for the two collections of real-world data sets—consisting of 20 and 18 volumes, respectively—provided by the Internet Brain Segmentation Repository.

A discriminative model-constrained EM approach to 3D MRI brain tissue classification and intensity non-uniformity correction.

PubMed

Wels, Michael; Zheng, Yefeng; Huber, Martin; Hornegger, Joachim; Comaniciu, Dorin

2011-06-07

We describe a fully automated method for tissue classification, which is the segmentation into cerebral gray matter (GM), cerebral white matter (WM), and cerebral spinal fluid (CSF), and intensity non-uniformity (INU) correction in brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volumes. It combines supervised MRI modality-specific discriminative modeling and unsupervised statistical expectation maximization (EM) segmentation into an integrated Bayesian framework. While both the parametric observation models and the non-parametrically modeled INUs are estimated via EM during segmentation itself, a Markov random field (MRF) prior model regularizes segmentation and parameter estimation. Firstly, the regularization takes into account knowledge about spatial and appearance-related homogeneity of segments in terms of pairwise clique potentials of adjacent voxels. Secondly and more importantly, patient-specific knowledge about the global spatial distribution of brain tissue is incorporated into the segmentation process via unary clique potentials. They are based on a strong discriminative model provided by a probabilistic boosting tree (PBT) for classifying image voxels. It relies on the surrounding context and alignment-based features derived from a probabilistic anatomical atlas. The context considered is encoded by 3D Haar-like features of reduced INU sensitivity. Alignment is carried out fully automatically by means of an affine registration algorithm minimizing cross-correlation. Both types of features do not immediately use the observed intensities provided by the MRI modality but instead rely on specifically transformed features, which are less sensitive to MRI artifacts. Detailed quantitative evaluations on standard phantom scans and standard real-world data show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method. They also demonstrate relative superiority in comparison to other state-of-the-art approaches to this kind of computational task: our method achieves average Dice coefficients of 0.93 ± 0.03 (WM) and 0.90 ± 0.05 (GM) on simulated mono-spectral and 0.94 ± 0.02 (WM) and 0.92 ± 0.04 (GM) on simulated multi-spectral data from the BrainWeb repository. The scores are 0.81 ± 0.09 (WM) and 0.82 ± 0.06 (GM) and 0.87 ± 0.05 (WM) and 0.83 ± 0.12 (GM) for the two collections of real-world data sets-consisting of 20 and 18 volumes, respectively-provided by the Internet Brain Segmentation Repository.

Modeling Women's Menstrual Cycles using PICI Gates in Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Zagorecki, Adam; Łupińska-Dubicka, Anna; Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

2016-03-01

A major difficulty in building Bayesian network (BN) models is the size of conditional probability tables, which grow exponentially in the number of parents. One way of dealing with this problem is through parametric conditional probability distributions that usually require only a number of parameters that is linear in the number of parents. In this paper, we introduce a new class of parametric models, the Probabilistic Independence of Causal Influences (PICI) models, that aim at lowering the number of parameters required to specify local probability distributions, but are still capable of efficiently modeling a variety of interactions. A subset of PICI models is decomposable and this leads to significantly faster inference as compared to models that cannot be decomposed. We present an application of the proposed method to learning dynamic BNs for modeling a woman's menstrual cycle. We show that PICI models are especially useful for parameter learning from small data sets and lead to higher parameter accuracy than when learning CPTs.

Enhancing PTFs with remotely sensed data for multi-scale soil water retention estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, Raghavendra B.; Mohanty, Binayak P.

2011-03-01

SummaryUse of remotely sensed data products in the earth science and water resources fields is growing due to increasingly easy availability of the data. Traditionally, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) employed for soil hydraulic parameter estimation from other easily available data have used basic soil texture and structure information as inputs. Inclusion of surrogate/supplementary data such as topography and vegetation information has shown some improvement in the PTF's ability to estimate more accurate soil hydraulic parameters. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a popular tool for PTF development, and are usually applied across matching spatial scales of inputs and outputs. However, different hydrologic, hydro-climatic, and contaminant transport models require input data at different scales, all of which may not be easily available from existing databases. In such a scenario, it becomes necessary to scale the soil hydraulic parameter values estimated by PTFs to suit the model requirements. Also, uncertainties in the predictions need to be quantified to enable users to gauge the suitability of a particular dataset in their applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) inherently provide uncertainty estimates for their outputs due to their utilization of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In this paper, we present a PTF methodology to estimate soil water retention characteristics built on a Bayesian framework for training of neural networks and utilizing several in situ and remotely sensed datasets jointly. The BNN is also applied across spatial scales to provide fine scale outputs when trained with coarse scale data. Our training data inputs include ground/remotely sensed soil texture, bulk density, elevation, and Leaf Area Index (LAI) at 1 km resolutions, while similar properties measured at a point scale are used as fine scale inputs. The methodology was tested at two different hydro-climatic regions. We also tested the effect of varying the support scale of the training data for the BNNs by sequentially aggregating finer resolution training data to coarser resolutions, and the applicability of the technique to upscaling problems. The BNN outputs are corrected for bias using a non-linear CDF-matching technique. Final results show good promise of the suitability of this Bayesian Neural Network approach for soil hydraulic parameter estimation across spatial scales using ground-, air-, or space-based remotely sensed geophysical parameters. Inclusion of remotely sensed data such as elevation and LAI in addition to in situ soil physical properties improved the estimation capabilities of the BNN-based PTF in certain conditions.

Characterizing regional-scale temporal evolution of air dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Wainwright, Haruko M; Seki, Akiyuki; Mikami, Satoshi; Saito, Kimiaki

2018-09-01

In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. We apply this method to the datasets from three years: 2014 to 2016. The temporal changes among the three integrated maps enables us to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of radiation air dose rates. The data-driven ecological decay model is then coupled with the integrated map to predict future dose rates. Results show that the air dose rates are decreasing consistently across the region. While slower in the forested region, the decrease is particularly significant in the town area. The decontamination has contributed to significant reduction of air dose rates. By 2026, the air dose rates will continue to decrease, and the area above 3.8 μSv/h will be almost fully contained within the non-residential forested zone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-variate joint PDF for non-Gaussianities: exact formulation and generic approximations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verde, Licia; Jimenez, Raul; Alvarez-Gaume, Luis

2013-06-01

We provide an exact expression for the multi-variate joint probability distribution function of non-Gaussian fields primordially arising from local transformations of a Gaussian field. This kind of non-Gaussianity is generated in many models of inflation. We apply our expression to the non-Gaussianity estimation from Cosmic Microwave Background maps and the halo mass function where we obtain analytical expressions. We also provide analytic approximations and their range of validity. For the Cosmic Microwave Background we give a fast way to compute the PDF which is valid up to more than 7σ for f{sub NL} values (both true and sampled) not ruledmore » out by current observations, which consists of expressing the PDF as a combination of bispectrum and trispectrum of the temperature maps. The resulting expression is valid for any kind of non-Gaussianity and is not limited to the local type. The above results may serve as the basis for a fully Bayesian analysis of the non-Gaussianity parameter.« less

Dynamic classification of fetal heart rates by hierarchical Dirichlet process mixture models.

PubMed

Yu, Kezi; Quirk, J Gerald; Djurić, Petar M

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose an application of non-parametric Bayesian (NPB) models for classification of fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings. More specifically, we propose models that are used to differentiate between FHR recordings that are from fetuses with or without adverse outcomes. In our work, we rely on models based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDP) and the Chinese restaurant process with finite capacity (CRFC). Two mixture models were inferred from real recordings, one that represents healthy and another, non-healthy fetuses. The models were then used to classify new recordings and provide the probability of the fetus being healthy. First, we compared the classification performance of the HDP models with that of support vector machines on real data and concluded that the HDP models achieved better performance. Then we demonstrated the use of mixture models based on CRFC for dynamic classification of the performance of (FHR) recordings in a real-time setting.

Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru.

PubMed

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Dynamic classification of fetal heart rates by hierarchical Dirichlet process mixture models

PubMed Central

Yu, Kezi; Quirk, J. Gerald

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose an application of non-parametric Bayesian (NPB) models for classification of fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings. More specifically, we propose models that are used to differentiate between FHR recordings that are from fetuses with or without adverse outcomes. In our work, we rely on models based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDP) and the Chinese restaurant process with finite capacity (CRFC). Two mixture models were inferred from real recordings, one that represents healthy and another, non-healthy fetuses. The models were then used to classify new recordings and provide the probability of the fetus being healthy. First, we compared the classification performance of the HDP models with that of support vector machines on real data and concluded that the HDP models achieved better performance. Then we demonstrated the use of mixture models based on CRFC for dynamic classification of the performance of (FHR) recordings in a real-time setting. PMID:28953927

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

PubMed Central

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies. PMID:24992657

Multi-resolution analysis for region of interest extraction in thermographic nondestructive evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Jaramillo, B.; Fandiño Toro, H. A.; Benitez-Restrepo, H. D.; Orjuela-Vargas, S. A.; Castellanos-Domínguez, G.; Philips, W.

2012-03-01

Infrared Non-Destructive Testing (INDT) is known as an effective and rapid method for nondestructive inspection. It can detect a broad range of near-surface structuring flaws in metallic and composite components. Those flaws are modeled as a smooth contour centered at peaks of stored thermal energy, termed Regions of Interest (ROI). Dedicated methodologies must detect the presence of those ROIs. In this paper, we present a methodology for ROI extraction in INDT tasks. The methodology deals with the difficulties due to the non-uniform heating. The non-uniform heating affects low spatial/frequencies and hinders the detection of relevant points in the image. In this paper, a methodology for ROI extraction in INDT using multi-resolution analysis is proposed, which is robust to ROI low contrast and non-uniform heating. The former methodology includes local correlation, Gaussian scale analysis and local edge detection. In this methodology local correlation between image and Gaussian window provides interest points related to ROIs. We use a Gaussian window because thermal behavior is well modeled by Gaussian smooth contours. Also, the Gaussian scale is used to analyze details in the image using multi-resolution analysis avoiding low contrast, non-uniform heating and selection of the Gaussian window size. Finally, local edge detection is used to provide a good estimation of the boundaries in the ROI. Thus, we provide a methodology for ROI extraction based on multi-resolution analysis that is better or equal compared with the other dedicate algorithms proposed in the state of art.

A Review of Some Superconducting Technologies for AtLAST: Parametric Amplifiers, Kinetic Inductance Detectors, and On-Chip Spectrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noroozian, Omid

2018-01-01

The current state of the art for some superconducting technologies will be reviewed in the context of a future single-dish submillimeter telescope called AtLAST. The technologies reviews include: 1) Kinetic Inductance Detectors (KIDs), which have now been demonstrated in large-format kilo-pixel arrays with photon background-limited sensitivity suitable for large field of view cameras for wide-field imaging. 2) Parametric amplifiers - specifically the Traveling-Wave Kinetic Inductance (TKIP) amplifier - which has enormous potential to increase sensitivity, bandwidth, and mapping speed of heterodyne receivers, and 3) On-chip spectrometers, which combined with sensitive direct detectors such as KIDs or TESs could be used as Multi-Object Spectrometers on the AtLAST focal plane, and could provide low-medium resolution spectroscopy of 100 objects at a time in each field of view.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, B.; Alcaniz, J.S.; Coley, A.A.

An important problem in precision cosmology is the determination of the effects of averaging and backreaction on observational predictions, particularly in view of the wealth of new observational data and improved statistical techniques. In this paper, we discuss the observational viability of a class of averaged cosmologies which consist of a simple parametrized phenomenological two-scale backreaction model with decoupled spatial curvature parameters. We perform a Bayesian model selection analysis and find that this class of averaged phenomenological cosmological models is favored with respect to the standard ΛCDM cosmological scenario when a joint analysis of current SNe Ia and BAO datamore » is performed. In particular, the analysis provides observational evidence for non-trivial spatial curvature.« less

Psychological Needs, Engagement, and Work Intentions: A Bayesian Multi-Measurement Mediation Approach and Implications for HRD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shuck, Brad; Zigarmi, Drea; Owen, Jesse

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to empirically examine the utility of self-determination theory (SDT) within the engagement-performance linkage. Design/methodology/approach: Bayesian multi-measurement mediation modeling was used to estimate the relation between SDT, engagement and a proxy measure of performance (e.g. work intentions) (N =…

Influence of spatial beam inhomogeneities on the parameters of a petawatt laser system based on multi-stage parametric amplification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frolov, S A; Trunov, V I; Pestryakov, Efim V

2013-05-31

We have developed a technique for investigating the evolution of spatial inhomogeneities in high-power laser systems based on multi-stage parametric amplification. A linearised model of the inhomogeneity development is first devised for parametric amplification with the small-scale self-focusing taken into account. It is shown that the application of this model gives the results consistent (with high accuracy and in a wide range of inhomogeneity parameters) with the calculation without approximations. Using the linearised model, we have analysed the development of spatial inhomogeneities in a petawatt laser system based on multi-stage parametric amplification, developed at the Institute of Laser Physics, Siberianmore » Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILP SB RAS). (control of laser radiation parameters)« less

Resolution analysis of marine seismic full waveform data by Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A.; Sekar, A.; Hoversten, G. M.; Albertin, U.

2015-12-01

The Bayesian posterior density function (PDF) of earth models that fit full waveform seismic data convey information on the uncertainty with which the elastic model parameters are resolved. In this work, we apply the trans-dimensional reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (RJ-MCMC) for the 1D inversion of noisy synthetic full-waveform seismic data in the frequency-wavenumber domain. While seismic full waveform inversion (FWI) is a powerful method for characterizing subsurface elastic parameters, the uncertainty in the inverted models has remained poorly known, if at all and is highly initial model dependent. The Bayesian method we use is trans-dimensional in that the number of model layers is not fixed, and flexible such that the layer boundaries are free to move around. The resulting parameterization does not require regularization to stabilize the inversion. Depth resolution is traded off with the number of layers, providing an estimate of uncertainty in elastic parameters (compressional and shear velocities Vp and Vs as well as density) with depth. We find that in the absence of additional constraints, Bayesian inversion can result in a wide range of posterior PDFs on Vp, Vs and density. These PDFs range from being clustered around the true model, to those that contain little resolution of any particular features other than those in the near surface, depending on the particular data and target geometry. We present results for a suite of different frequencies and offset ranges, examining the differences in the posterior model densities thus derived. Though these results are for a 1D earth, they are applicable to areas with simple, layered geology and provide valuable insight into the resolving capabilities of FWI, as well as highlight the challenges in solving a highly non-linear problem. The RJ-MCMC method also presents a tantalizing possibility for extension to 2D and 3D Bayesian inversion of full waveform seismic data in the future, as it objectively tackles the problem of model selection (i.e., the number of layers or cells for parameterization), which could ease the computational burden of evaluating forward models with many parameters.

Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

2016-04-01

Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our hierarchical MC model with the semi-parametric model in preserving rainfall variability in daily, monthly, and multi-year scales. To calibrate the parameters of both models and assess their ability to preserve observed statistics, we have used ground based data from 15 raingauge stations around Australia, which consist a wide range of climate zones including coastal, monsoonal, and arid climate characteristics. In preliminary results, both models show comparative performances in preserving the multi-year variability of rainfall depth and occurrence. However, the semi-parametric model shows a tendency of overestimating the mean rainfall depth, while our model shows a tendency of overestimating the number of wet days. We will discuss further the relative merits of the both models for hydrology simulation in the presentation.

Robust high-resolution quantification of time signals encoded by in vivo magnetic resonance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkić, Dževad; Belkić, Karen

2018-01-01

This paper on molecular imaging emphasizes improving specificity of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) for early cancer diagnostics by high-resolution data analysis. Sensitivity of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is excellent, but specificity is insufficient. Specificity is improved with MRS by going beyond morphology to assess the biochemical content of tissue. This is contingent upon accurate data quantification of diagnostically relevant biomolecules. Quantification is spectral analysis which reconstructs chemical shifts, amplitudes and relaxation times of metabolites. Chemical shifts inform on electronic shielding of resonating nuclei bound to different molecular compounds. Oscillation amplitudes in time signals retrieve the abundance of MR sensitive nuclei whose number is proportional to metabolite concentrations. Transverse relaxation times, the reciprocal of decay probabilities of resonances, arise from spin-spin coupling and reflect local field inhomogeneities. In MRS single voxels are used. For volumetric coverage, multi-voxels are employed within a hybrid of MRS and MRI called magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI). Common to MRS and MRSI is encoding of time signals and subsequent spectral analysis. Encoded data do not provide direct clinical information. Spectral analysis of time signals can yield the quantitative information, of which metabolite concentrations are the most clinically important. This information is equivocal with standard data analysis through the non-parametric, low-resolution fast Fourier transform and post-processing via fitting. By applying the fast Padé transform (FPT) with high-resolution, noise suppression and exact quantification via quantum mechanical signal processing, advances are made, presented herein, focusing on four areas of critical public health importance: brain, prostate, breast and ovarian cancers.

Assessing statistical differences between parameters estimates in Partial Least Squares path modeling.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Entrena, Macario; Schuberth, Florian; Gelhard, Carsten

2018-01-01

Structural equation modeling using partial least squares (PLS-SEM) has become a main-stream modeling approach in various disciplines. Nevertheless, prior literature still lacks a practical guidance on how to properly test for differences between parameter estimates. Whereas existing techniques such as parametric and non-parametric approaches in PLS multi-group analysis solely allow to assess differences between parameters that are estimated for different subpopulations, the study at hand introduces a technique that allows to also assess whether two parameter estimates that are derived from the same sample are statistically different. To illustrate this advancement to PLS-SEM, we particularly refer to a reduced version of the well-established technology acceptance model.

Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.

2017-12-01

Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.

Divergences and estimating tight bounds on Bayes error with applications to multivariate Gaussian copula and latent Gaussian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, Brian J.; Xique, Ismael J.; Burns, Joseph W.; Goley, G. Steven; Nolan, Adam R.; Benson, Jonathan W.

2017-04-01

In Bayesian decision theory, there has been a great amount of research into theoretical frameworks and information- theoretic quantities that can be used to provide lower and upper bounds for the Bayes error. These include well-known bounds such as Chernoff, Battacharrya, and J-divergence. Part of the challenge of utilizing these various metrics in practice is (i) whether they are "loose" or "tight" bounds, (ii) how they might be estimated via either parametric or non-parametric methods, and (iii) how accurate the estimates are for limited amounts of data. In general what is desired is a methodology for generating relatively tight lower and upper bounds, and then an approach to estimate these bounds efficiently from data. In this paper, we explore the so-called triangle divergence which has been around for a while, but was recently made more prominent in some recent research on non-parametric estimation of information metrics. Part of this work is motivated by applications for quantifying fundamental information content in SAR/LIDAR data, and to help in this, we have developed a flexible multivariate modeling framework based on multivariate Gaussian copula models which can be combined with the triangle divergence framework to quantify this information, and provide approximate bounds on Bayes error. In this paper we present an overview of the bounds, including those based on triangle divergence and verify that under a number of multivariate models, the upper and lower bounds derived from triangle divergence are significantly tighter than the other common bounds, and often times, dramatically so. We also propose some simple but effective means for computing the triangle divergence using Monte Carlo methods, and then discuss estimation of the triangle divergence from empirical data based on Gaussian Copula models.

Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

PubMed

Jabot, Franck

2015-05-07

A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On parametrized cold dense matter equation-of-state inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Thomas E.; Raaijmakers, Geert; Watts, Anna L.

2018-07-01

Constraining the equation of state of cold dense matter in compact stars is a major science goal for observing programmes being conducted using X-ray, radio, and gravitational wave telescopes. We discuss Bayesian hierarchical inference of parametrized dense matter equations of state. In particular, we generalize and examine two inference paradigms from the literature: (i) direct posterior equation-of-state parameter estimation, conditioned on observations of a set of rotating compact stars; and (ii) indirect parameter estimation, via transformation of an intermediary joint posterior distribution of exterior spacetime parameters (such as gravitational masses and coordinate equatorial radii). We conclude that the former paradigm is not only tractable for large-scale analyses, but is principled and flexible from a Bayesian perspective while the latter paradigm is not. The thematic problem of Bayesian prior definition emerges as the crux of the difference between these paradigms. The second paradigm should in general only be considered as an ill-defined approach to the problem of utilizing archival posterior constraints on exterior spacetime parameters; we advocate for an alternative approach whereby such information is repurposed as an approximative likelihood function. We also discuss why conditioning on a piecewise-polytropic equation-of-state model - currently standard in the field of dense matter study - can easily violate conditions required for transformation of a probability density distribution between spaces of exterior (spacetime) and interior (source matter) parameters.

The non-linear response of a muscle in transverse compression: assessment of geometry influence using a finite element model.

PubMed

Gras, Laure-Lise; Mitton, David; Crevier-Denoix, Nathalie; Laporte, Sébastien

2012-01-01

Most recent finite element models that represent muscles are generic or subject-specific models that use complex, constitutive laws. Identification of the parameters of such complex, constitutive laws could be an important limit for subject-specific approaches. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of modelling muscle behaviour in compression with a parametric model and a simple, constitutive law. A quasi-static compression test was performed on the muscles of dogs. A parametric finite element model was designed using a linear, elastic, constitutive law. A multi-variate analysis was performed to assess the effects of geometry on muscle response. An inverse method was used to define Young's modulus. The non-linear response of the muscles was obtained using a subject-specific geometry and a linear elastic law. Thus, a simple muscle model can be used to have a bio-faithful, biomechanical response.

Probabilistic multi-resolution human classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Jun; Ran, H.

2006-02-01

Recently there has been some interest in using infrared cameras for human detection because of the sharply decreasing prices of infrared cameras. The training data used in our work for developing the probabilistic template consists images known to contain humans in different poses and orientation but having the same height. Multiresolution templates are performed. They are based on contour and edges. This is done so that the model does not learn the intensity variations among the background pixels and intensity variations among the foreground pixels. Each template at every level is then translated so that the centroid of the non-zero pixels matches the geometrical center of the image. After this normalization step, for each pixel of the template, the probability of it being pedestrian is calculated based on the how frequently it appears as 1 in the training data. We also use periodicity gait to verify the pedestrian in a Bayesian manner for the whole blob in a probabilistic way. The videos had quite a lot of variations in the scenes, sizes of people, amount of occlusions and clutter in the backgrounds as is clearly evident. Preliminary experiments show the robustness.

Clinical Alarms in intensive care: implications of alarm fatigue for the safety of patients1

PubMed Central

Bridi, Adriana Carla; Louro, Thiago Quinellato; da Silva, Roberto Carlos Lyra

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: to identify the number of electro-medical pieces of equipment in a coronary care unit, characterize their types, and analyze implications for the safety of patients from the perspective of alarm fatigue. METHOD: this quantitative, observational, descriptive, non-participatory study was conducted in a coronary care unit of a cardiology hospital with 170 beds. RESULTS: a total of 426 alarms were recorded in 40 hours of observation: 227 were triggered by multi-parametric monitors and 199 were triggered by other equipment (infusion pumps, dialysis pumps, mechanical ventilators, and intra-aortic balloons); that is an average of 10.6 alarms per hour. CONCLUSION: the results reinforce the importance of properly configuring physiological variables, the volume and parameters of alarms of multi-parametric monitors within the routine of intensive care units. The alarms of equipment intended to protect patients have increased noise within the unit, the level of distraction and interruptions in the workflow, leading to a false sense of security. PMID:25591100

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2014-11-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud masks were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large amounts of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient amounts of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2015-04-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud detection schemes were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large numbers of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient numbers of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Galaxy properties from J-PAS narrow-band photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía-Narváez, A.; Bruzual, G.; Magris, C. G.; Alcaniz, J. S.; Benítez, N.; Carneiro, S.; Cenarro, A. J.; Cristóbal-Hornillos, D.; Dupke, R.; Ederoclite, A.; Marín-Franch, A.; de Oliveira, C. Mendes; Moles, M.; Sodre, L.; Taylor, K.; Varela, J.; Ramió, H. Vázquez

2017-11-01

We study the consistency of the physical properties of galaxies retrieved from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting as a function of spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Using a selection of physically motivated star formation histories, we set up a control sample of mock galaxy spectra representing observations of the local Universe in high-resolution spectroscopy, and in 56 narrow-band and 5 broad-band photometry. We fit the SEDs at these spectral resolutions and compute their corresponding stellar mass, the mass- and luminosity-weighted age and metallicity, and the dust extinction. We study the biases, correlations and degeneracies affecting the retrieved parameters and explore the role of the spectral resolution and the SNR in regulating these degeneracies. We find that narrow-band photometry and spectroscopy yield similar trends in the physical properties derived, the former being considerably more precise. Using a galaxy sample from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we compare more realistically the results obtained from high-resolution and narrow-band SEDs (synthesized from the same SDSS spectra) following the same spectral fitting procedures. We use results from the literature as a benchmark to our spectroscopic estimates and show that the prior probability distribution functions, commonly adopted in parametric methods, may introduce biases not accounted for in a Bayesian framework. We conclude that narrow-band photometry yields the same trend in the age-metallicity relation in the literature, provided it is affected by the same biases as spectroscopy, albeit the precision achieved with the latter is generally twice as large as with the narrow-band, at SNR values typical of the different kinds of data.

Incorporating external evidence in trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses: the use of resampling methods

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) that use patient-specific data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) are popular, yet such CEAs are criticized because they neglect to incorporate evidence external to the trial. A popular method for quantifying uncertainty in a RCT-based CEA is the bootstrap. The objective of the present study was to further expand the bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA for the incorporation of external evidence. Methods We utilize the Bayesian interpretation of the bootstrap and derive the distribution for the cost and effectiveness outcomes after observing the current RCT data and the external evidence. We propose simple modifications of the bootstrap for sampling from such posterior distributions. Results In a proof-of-concept case study, we use data from a clinical trial and incorporate external evidence on the effect size of treatments to illustrate the method in action. Compared to the parametric models of evidence synthesis, the proposed approach requires fewer distributional assumptions, does not require explicit modeling of the relation between external evidence and outcomes of interest, and is generally easier to implement. A drawback of this approach is potential computational inefficiency compared to the parametric Bayesian methods. Conclusions The bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA can be extended to incorporate external evidence, while preserving its appealing features such as no requirement for parametric modeling of cost and effectiveness outcomes. PMID:24888356

Incorporating external evidence in trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses: the use of resampling methods.

PubMed

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Marra, Carlo; Aaron, Shawn; Bryan, Stirling

2014-06-03

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) that use patient-specific data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) are popular, yet such CEAs are criticized because they neglect to incorporate evidence external to the trial. A popular method for quantifying uncertainty in a RCT-based CEA is the bootstrap. The objective of the present study was to further expand the bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA for the incorporation of external evidence. We utilize the Bayesian interpretation of the bootstrap and derive the distribution for the cost and effectiveness outcomes after observing the current RCT data and the external evidence. We propose simple modifications of the bootstrap for sampling from such posterior distributions. In a proof-of-concept case study, we use data from a clinical trial and incorporate external evidence on the effect size of treatments to illustrate the method in action. Compared to the parametric models of evidence synthesis, the proposed approach requires fewer distributional assumptions, does not require explicit modeling of the relation between external evidence and outcomes of interest, and is generally easier to implement. A drawback of this approach is potential computational inefficiency compared to the parametric Bayesian methods. The bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA can be extended to incorporate external evidence, while preserving its appealing features such as no requirement for parametric modeling of cost and effectiveness outcomes.

A simple parametric model observer for quality assurance in computer tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anton, M.; Khanin, A.; Kretz, T.; Reginatto, M.; Elster, C.

2018-04-01

Model observers are mathematical classifiers that are used for the quality assessment of imaging systems such as computer tomography. The quality of the imaging system is quantified by means of the performance of a selected model observer. For binary classification tasks, the performance of the model observer is defined by the area under its ROC curve (AUC). Typically, the AUC is estimated by applying the model observer to a large set of training and test data. However, the recording of these large data sets is not always practical for routine quality assurance. In this paper we propose as an alternative a parametric model observer that is based on a simple phantom, and we provide a Bayesian estimation of its AUC. It is shown that a limited number of repeatedly recorded images (10–15) is already sufficient to obtain results suitable for the quality assessment of an imaging system. A MATLAB® function is provided for the calculation of the results. The performance of the proposed model observer is compared to that of the established channelized Hotelling observer and the nonprewhitening matched filter for simulated images as well as for images obtained from a low-contrast phantom on an x-ray tomography scanner. The results suggest that the proposed parametric model observer, along with its Bayesian treatment, can provide an efficient, practical alternative for the quality assessment of CT imaging systems.

Automated flow cytometric analysis across large numbers of samples and cell types.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaoyi; Hasan, Milena; Libri, Valentina; Urrutia, Alejandra; Beitz, Benoît; Rouilly, Vincent; Duffy, Darragh; Patin, Étienne; Chalmond, Bernard; Rogge, Lars; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Albert, Matthew L; Schwikowski, Benno

2015-04-01

Multi-parametric flow cytometry is a key technology for characterization of immune cell phenotypes. However, robust high-dimensional post-analytic strategies for automated data analysis in large numbers of donors are still lacking. Here, we report a computational pipeline, called FlowGM, which minimizes operator input, is insensitive to compensation settings, and can be adapted to different analytic panels. A Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based approach was utilized for initial clustering, with the number of clusters determined using Bayesian Information Criterion. Meta-clustering in a reference donor permitted automated identification of 24 cell types across four panels. Cluster labels were integrated into FCS files, thus permitting comparisons to manual gating. Cell numbers and coefficient of variation (CV) were similar between FlowGM and conventional gating for lymphocyte populations, but notably FlowGM provided improved discrimination of "hard-to-gate" monocyte and dendritic cell (DC) subsets. FlowGM thus provides rapid high-dimensional analysis of cell phenotypes and is amenable to cohort studies. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Hybrid-coded 3D structured illumination imaging with Bayesian estimation (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsi-Hsun; Luo, Yuan; Singh, Vijay R.

2016-03-01

Light induced fluorescent microscopy has long been developed to observe and understand the object at microscale, such as cellular sample. However, the transfer function of lense-based imaging system limits the resolution so that the fine and detailed structure of sample cannot be identified clearly. The techniques of resolution enhancement are fascinated to break the limit of resolution for objective given. In the past decades, the resolution enhancement imaging has been investigated through variety of strategies, including photoactivated localization microscopy (PALM), stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM), stimulated emission depletion (STED), and structure illuminated microscopy (SIM). In those methods, only SIM can intrinsically improve the resolution limit for a system without taking the structure properties of object into account. In this paper, we develop a SIM associated with Bayesian estimation, furthermore, with optical sectioning capability rendered from HiLo processing, resulting the high resolution through 3D volume. This 3D SIM can provide the optical sectioning and resolution enhancement performance, and be robust to noise owing to the Data driven Bayesian estimation reconstruction proposed. For validating the 3D SIM, we show our simulation result of algorithm, and the experimental result demonstrating the 3D resolution enhancement.

Bayesian nonparametric estimation of EQ-5D utilities for United States using the existing United Kingdom data.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A

2017-10-06

Valuations of health state descriptors such as EQ-5D or SF6D have been conducted in different countries. There is a scope to make use of the results in one country as informative priors to help with the analysis of a study in another, for this to enable better estimation to be obtained in the new country than analyzing its data separately. Data from 2 EQ-5D valuation studies were analyzed using the time trade-off technique, where values for 42 health states were devised from representative samples of the UK and US populations. A Bayesian non-parametric approach has been applied to predict the health utilities of the US population, where the UK results were used as informative priors in the model to improve their estimation. The findings showed that employing additional information from the UK data helped in the production of US utility estimates much more precisely than would have been possible using the US study data alone. It is very plausible that this method would serve useful in countries where the conduction of large evaluation studies is not very feasible.

Statistical modelling of networked human-automation performance using working memory capacity.

PubMed

Ahmed, Nisar; de Visser, Ewart; Shaw, Tyler; Mohamed-Ameen, Amira; Campbell, Mark; Parasuraman, Raja

2014-01-01

This study examines the challenging problem of modelling the interaction between individual attentional limitations and decision-making performance in networked human-automation system tasks. Analysis of real experimental data from a task involving networked supervision of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles by human participants shows that both task load and network message quality affect performance, but that these effects are modulated by individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity. These insights were used to assess three statistical approaches for modelling and making predictions with real experimental networked supervisory performance data: classical linear regression, non-parametric Gaussian processes and probabilistic Bayesian networks. It is shown that each of these approaches can help designers of networked human-automated systems cope with various uncertainties in order to accommodate future users by linking expected operating conditions and performance from real experimental data to observable cognitive traits like WM capacity. Practitioner Summary: Working memory (WM) capacity helps account for inter-individual variability in operator performance in networked unmanned aerial vehicle supervisory tasks. This is useful for reliable performance prediction near experimental conditions via linear models; robust statistical prediction beyond experimental conditions via Gaussian process models and probabilistic inference about unknown task conditions/WM capacities via Bayesian network models.

Dual frequency parametric excitation of a nonlinear, multi degree of freedom mechanical amplifier with electronically modified topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolev, A.; Bucher, I.

2018-04-01

Mechanical or electromechanical amplifiers can exploit the high-Q and low noise features of mechanical resonance, in particular when parametric excitation is employed. Multi-frequency parametric excitation introduces tunability and is able to project weak input signals on a selected resonance. The present paper addresses multi degree of freedom mechanical amplifiers or resonators whose analysis and features require treatment of the spatial as well as temporal behavior. In some cases, virtual electronic coupling can alter the given topology of the resonator to better amplify specific inputs. An analytical development is followed by a numerical and experimental sensitivity and performance verifications, illustrating the advantages and disadvantages of such topologies.

A non-invasive blood glucose meter design using multi-type sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, D.; Nguyen, Hienvu; Roveda, Janet

2012-10-01

In this paper, we present a design of a multi optical modalities blood glucose monitor. The Monte Carlo tissues optics simulation with typical human skin model suggests the SNR ratio for a detector sensor is 104 with high sensitivity that can detect low blood sugar limit at 1 mMole/dL ( <20 mg/dL). A Bayesian filtering algorithm is proposed for multisensor fusion to identify whether e user has the danger of having diabetes. The new design has real time response (on the average of 2 minutes) and provides great potential to perform real time monitoring for blood glucose.

Bayesian Kernel Methods for Non-Gaussian Distributions: Binary and Multi-class Classification Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-28

those of the support vector machine and relevance vector machine, and the model runs more quickly than the other algorithms . When one class occurs...incremental support vector machine algorithm for online learning when fewer than 50 data points are available. (a) Papers published in peer-reviewed journals...learning environments, where data processing occurs one observation at a time and the classification algorithm improves over time with new

Parametric effects of syntactic-semantic conflict in Broca's area during sentence processing.

PubMed

Thothathiri, Malathi; Kim, Albert; Trueswell, John C; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L

2012-03-01

The hypothesized role of Broca's area in sentence processing ranges from domain-general executive function to domain-specific computation that is specific to certain syntactic structures. We examined this issue by manipulating syntactic structure and conflict between syntactic and semantic cues in a sentence processing task. Functional neuroimaging revealed that activation within several Broca's area regions of interest reflected the parametric variation in syntactic-semantic conflict. These results suggest that Broca's area supports sentence processing by mediating between multiple incompatible constraints on sentence interpretation, consistent with this area's well-known role in conflict resolution in other linguistic and non-linguistic tasks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Direct 4D reconstruction of parametric images incorporating anato-functional joint entropy.

PubMed

Tang, Jing; Kuwabara, Hiroto; Wong, Dean F; Rahmim, Arman

2010-08-07

We developed an anatomy-guided 4D closed-form algorithm to directly reconstruct parametric images from projection data for (nearly) irreversible tracers. Conventional methods consist of individually reconstructing 2D/3D PET data, followed by graphical analysis on the sequence of reconstructed image frames. The proposed direct reconstruction approach maintains the simplicity and accuracy of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by extending the system matrix to include the relation between the parametric images and the measured data. A closed-form solution was achieved using a different hidden complete-data formulation within the EM framework. Furthermore, the proposed method was extended to maximum a posterior reconstruction via incorporation of MR image information, taking the joint entropy between MR and parametric PET features as the prior. Using realistic simulated noisy [(11)C]-naltrindole PET and MR brain images/data, the quantitative performance of the proposed methods was investigated. Significant improvements in terms of noise versus bias performance were demonstrated when performing direct parametric reconstruction, and additionally upon extending the algorithm to its Bayesian counterpart using the MR-PET joint entropy measure.

Modelling and multi-parametric control for delivery of anaesthetic agents.

PubMed

Dua, Pinky; Dua, Vivek; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N

2010-06-01

This article presents model predictive controllers (MPCs) and multi-parametric model-based controllers for delivery of anaesthetic agents. The MPC can take into account constraints on drug delivery rates and state of the patient but requires solving an optimization problem at regular time intervals. The multi-parametric controller has all the advantages of the MPC and does not require repetitive solution of optimization problem for its implementation. This is achieved by obtaining the optimal drug delivery rates as a set of explicit functions of the state of the patient. The derivation of the controllers relies on using detailed models of the system. A compartmental model for the delivery of three drugs for anaesthesia is developed. The key feature of this model is that mean arterial pressure, cardiac output and unconsciousness of the patient can be simultaneously regulated. This is achieved by using three drugs: dopamine (DP), sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and isoflurane. A number of dynamic simulation experiments are carried out for the validation of the model. The model is then used for the design of model predictive and multi-parametric controllers, and the performance of the controllers is analyzed.

Prospective evaluation of a Bayesian model to predict organizational change.

PubMed

Molfenter, Todd; Gustafson, Dave; Kilo, Chuck; Bhattacharya, Abhik; Olsson, Jesper

2005-01-01

This research examines a subjective Bayesian model's ability to predict organizational change outcomes and sustainability of those outcomes for project teams participating in a multi-organizational improvement collaborative.

Bayesian Model Comparison for the Order Restricted RC Association Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iliopoulos, G.; Kateri, M.; Ntzoufras, I.

2009-01-01

Association models constitute an attractive alternative to the usual log-linear models for modeling the dependence between classification variables. They impose special structure on the underlying association by assigning scores on the levels of each classification variable, which can be fixed or parametric. Under the general row-column (RC)…

Logistic Stick-Breaking Process

PubMed Central

Ren, Lu; Du, Lan; Carin, Lawrence; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

A logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) is proposed for non-parametric clustering of general spatially- or temporally-dependent data, imposing the belief that proximate data are more likely to be clustered together. The sticks in the LSBP are realized via multiple logistic regression functions, with shrinkage priors employed to favor contiguous and spatially localized segments. The LSBP is also extended for the simultaneous processing of multiple data sets, yielding a hierarchical logistic stick-breaking process (H-LSBP). The model parameters (atoms) within the H-LSBP are shared across the multiple learning tasks. Efficient variational Bayesian inference is derived, and comparisons are made to related techniques in the literature. Experimental analysis is performed for audio waveforms and images, and it is demonstrated that for segmentation applications the LSBP yields generally homogeneous segments with sharp boundaries. PMID:25258593

Algorithmic procedures for Bayesian MEG/EEG source reconstruction in SPM☆

PubMed Central

López, J.D.; Litvak, V.; Espinosa, J.J.; Friston, K.; Barnes, G.R.

2014-01-01

The MEG/EEG inverse problem is ill-posed, giving different source reconstructions depending on the initial assumption sets. Parametric Empirical Bayes allows one to implement most popular MEG/EEG inversion schemes (Minimum Norm, LORETA, etc.) within the same generic Bayesian framework. It also provides a cost-function in terms of the variational Free energy—an approximation to the marginal likelihood or evidence of the solution. In this manuscript, we revisit the algorithm for MEG/EEG source reconstruction with a view to providing a didactic and practical guide. The aim is to promote and help standardise the development and consolidation of other schemes within the same framework. We describe the implementation in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software package, carefully explaining each of its stages with the help of a simple simulated data example. We focus on the Multiple Sparse Priors (MSP) model, which we compare with the well-known Minimum Norm and LORETA models, using the negative variational Free energy for model comparison. The manuscript is accompanied by Matlab scripts to allow the reader to test and explore the underlying algorithm. PMID:24041874

Multiple utility constrained multi-objective programs using Bayesian theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasian, Pooneh; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Fazlollahtabar, Hamed

2018-03-01

A utility function is an important tool for representing a DM's preference. We adjoin utility functions to multi-objective optimization problems. In current studies, usually one utility function is used for each objective function. Situations may arise for a goal to have multiple utility functions. Here, we consider a constrained multi-objective problem with each objective having multiple utility functions. We induce the probability of the utilities for each objective function using Bayesian theory. Illustrative examples considering dependence and independence of variables are worked through to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Lunar Terrain and Albedo Reconstruction from Apollo Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nefian, Ara V.; Kim, Taemin; Broxton, Michael; Moratto, Zach

2010-01-01

Generating accurate three dimensional planetary models and albedo maps is becoming increasingly more important as NASA plans more robotics missions to the Moon in the coming years. This paper describes a novel approach for separation of topography and albedo maps from orbital Lunar images. Our method uses an optimal Bayesian correlator to refine the stereo disparity map and generate a set of accurate digital elevation models (DEM). The albedo maps are obtained using a multi-image formation model that relies on the derived DEMs and the Lunar- Lambert reflectance model. The method is demonstrated on a set of high resolution scanned images from the Apollo era missions.

Properties of O dwarf stars in 30 Doradus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabín-Sanjulián, Carolina; VFTS Collaboration

2017-11-01

We perform a quantitative spectroscopic analysis of 105 presumably single O dwarf stars in 30 Doradus, located within the Large Magellanic Cloud. We use mid-to-high resolution multi-epoch optical spectroscopic data obtained within the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey. Stellar and wind parameters are derived by means of the automatic tool iacob-gbat, which is based on a large grid of fastwind models. We also benefit from the Bayesian tool bonnsai to estimate evolutionary masses. We provide a spectral calibration for the effective temperature of O dwarf stars in the LMC, deal with the mass discrepancy problem and investigate the wind properties of the sample.

Method of Obtaining High Resolution Intrinsic Wire Boom Damping Parameters for Multi-Body Dynamics Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yew, Alvin G.; Chai, Dean J.; Olney, David J.

2010-01-01

The goal of NASA's Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission is to understand magnetic reconnection with sensor measurements from four spinning satellites flown in a tight tetrahedron formation. Four of the six electric field sensors on each satellite are located at the end of 60- meter wire booms to increase measurement sensitivity in the spin plane and to minimize motion coupling from perturbations on the main body. A propulsion burn however, might induce boom oscillations that could impact science measurements if oscillations do not damp to values on the order of 0.1 degree in a timely fashion. Large damping time constants could also adversely affect flight dynamics and attitude control performance. In this paper, we will discuss the implementation of a high resolution method for calculating the boom's intrinsic damping, which was used in multi-body dynamics simulations. In summary, experimental data was obtained with a scaled-down boom, which was suspended as a pendulum in vacuum. Optical techniques were designed to accurately measure the natural decay of angular position and subsequently, data processing algorithms resulted in excellent spatial and temporal resolutions. This method was repeated in a parametric study for various lengths, root tensions and vacuum levels. For all data sets, regression models for damping were applied, including: nonlinear viscous, frequency-independent hysteretic, coulomb and some combination of them. Our data analysis and dynamics models have shown that the intrinsic damping for the baseline boom is insufficient, thereby forcing project management to explore mitigation strategies.

A Frequency-Domain Multipath Parameter Estimation and Mitigation Method for BOC-Modulated GNSS Signals

PubMed Central

Sun, Chao; Feng, Wenquan; Du, Songlin

2018-01-01

As multipath is one of the dominating error sources for high accuracy Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications, multipath mitigation approaches are employed to minimize this hazardous error in receivers. Binary offset carrier modulation (BOC), as a modernized signal structure, is adopted to achieve significant enhancement. However, because of its multi-peak autocorrelation function, conventional multipath mitigation techniques for binary phase shift keying (BPSK) signal would not be optimal. Currently, non-parametric and parametric approaches have been studied specifically aiming at multipath mitigation for BOC signals. Non-parametric techniques, such as Code Correlation Reference Waveforms (CCRW), usually have good feasibility with simple structures, but suffer from low universal applicability for different BOC signals. Parametric approaches can thoroughly eliminate multipath error by estimating multipath parameters. The problems with this category are at the high computation complexity and vulnerability to the noise. To tackle the problem, we present a practical parametric multipath estimation method in the frequency domain for BOC signals. The received signal is transferred to the frequency domain to separate out the multipath channel transfer function for multipath parameter estimation. During this process, we take the operations of segmentation and averaging to reduce both noise effect and computational load. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated and compared with the previous work in three scenarios. Results indicate that the proposed averaging-Fast Fourier Transform (averaging-FFT) method achieves good robustness in severe multipath environments with lower computational load for both low-order and high-order BOC signals. PMID:29495589

A generalized parametric response mapping method for analysis of multi-parametric imaging: A feasibility study with application to glioblastoma.

PubMed

Lausch, Anthony; Yeung, Timothy Pok-Chi; Chen, Jeff; Law, Elton; Wang, Yong; Urbini, Benedetta; Donelli, Filippo; Manco, Luigi; Fainardi, Enrico; Lee, Ting-Yim; Wong, Eugene

2017-11-01

Parametric response map (PRM) analysis of functional imaging has been shown to be an effective tool for early prediction of cancer treatment outcomes and may also be well-suited toward guiding personalized adaptive radiotherapy (RT) strategies such as sub-volume boosting. However, the PRM method was primarily designed for analysis of longitudinally acquired pairs of single-parameter image data. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of a generalized parametric response map analysis framework, which enables analysis of multi-parametric data while maintaining the key advantages of the original PRM method. MRI-derived apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV) maps acquired at 1 and 3-months post-RT for 19 patients with high-grade glioma were used to demonstrate the algorithm. Images were first co-registered and then standardized using normal tissue image intensity values. Tumor voxels were then plotted in a four-dimensional Cartesian space with coordinate values equal to a voxel's image intensity in each of the image volumes and an origin defined as the multi-parametric mean of normal tissue image intensity values. Voxel positions were orthogonally projected onto a line defined by the origin and a pre-determined response vector. The voxels are subsequently classified as positive, negative or nil, according to whether projected positions along the response vector exceeded a threshold distance from the origin. The response vector was selected by identifying the direction in which the standard deviation of tumor image intensity values was maximally different between responding and non-responding patients within a training dataset. Voxel classifications were visualized via familiar three-class response maps and then the fraction of tumor voxels associated with each of the classes was investigated for predictive utility analogous to the original PRM method. Independent PRM and MPRM analyses of the contrast-enhancing lesion (CEL) and a 1 cm shell of surrounding peri-tumoral tissue were performed. Prediction using tumor volume metrics was also investigated. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) was used in combination with permutation testing to assess preliminary predictive efficacy and estimate statistically robust P-values. The predictive endpoint was overall survival (OS) greater than or equal to the median OS of 18.2 months. Single-parameter PRM and multi-parametric response maps (MPRMs) were generated for each patient and used to predict OS via the LOOCV. Tumor volume metrics (P ≥ 0.071 ± 0.01) and single-parameter PRM analyses (P ≥ 0.170 ± 0.01) were not found to be predictive of OS within this study. MPRM analysis of the peri-tumoral region but not the CEL was found to be predictive of OS with a classification sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 80%, 100%, and 89%, respectively (P = 0.001 ± 0.01). The feasibility of a generalized MPRM analysis framework was demonstrated with improved prediction of overall survival compared to the original single-parameter method when applied to a glioblastoma dataset. The proposed algorithm takes the spatial heterogeneity in multi-parametric response into consideration and enables visualization. MPRM analysis of peri-tumoral regions was shown to have predictive potential supporting further investigation of a larger glioblastoma dataset. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Image-Based Airborne Sensors: A Combined Approach for Spectral Signatures Classification through Deterministic Simulated Annealing

PubMed Central

Guijarro, María; Pajares, Gonzalo; Herrera, P. Javier

2009-01-01

The increasing technology of high-resolution image airborne sensors, including those on board Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, demands automatic solutions for processing, either on-line or off-line, the huge amountds of image data sensed during the flights. The classification of natural spectral signatures in images is one potential application. The actual tendency in classification is oriented towards the combination of simple classifiers. In this paper we propose a combined strategy based on the Deterministic Simulated Annealing (DSA) framework. The simple classifiers used are the well tested supervised parametric Bayesian estimator and the Fuzzy Clustering. The DSA is an optimization approach, which minimizes an energy function. The main contribution of DSA is its ability to avoid local minima during the optimization process thanks to the annealing scheme. It outperforms simple classifiers used for the combination and some combined strategies, including a scheme based on the fuzzy cognitive maps and an optimization approach based on the Hopfield neural network paradigm. PMID:22399989

Three-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistical Aquifer Characterization at the Hanford 300 Area using Tracer Test Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xingyuan; Murakami, Haruko; Hahn, Melanie S.

2012-06-01

Tracer testing under natural or forced gradient flow holds the potential to provide useful information for characterizing subsurface properties, through monitoring, modeling and interpretation of the tracer plume migration in an aquifer. Non-reactive tracer experiments were conducted at the Hanford 300 Area, along with constant-rate injection tests and electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) profiling. A Bayesian data assimilation technique, the method of anchored distributions (MAD) [Rubin et al., 2010], was applied to assimilate the experimental tracer test data with the other types of data and to infer the three-dimensional heterogeneous structure of the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone of themore » Hanford formation. In this study, the Bayesian prior information on the underlying random hydraulic conductivity field was obtained from previous field characterization efforts using the constant-rate injection tests and the EBF data. The posterior distribution of the conductivity field was obtained by further conditioning the field on the temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves at various observation wells. MAD was implemented with the massively-parallel three-dimensional flow and transport code PFLOTRAN to cope with the highly transient flow boundary conditions at the site and to meet the computational demands of MAD. A synthetic study proved that the proposed method could effectively invert tracer test data to capture the essential spatial heterogeneity of the three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field. Application of MAD to actual field data shows that the hydrogeological model, when conditioned on the tracer test data, can reproduce the tracer transport behavior better than the field characterized without the tracer test data. This study successfully demonstrates that MAD can sequentially assimilate multi-scale multi-type field data through a consistent Bayesian framework.« less

Intra-individual comparison of (68)Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT and multi-parametric MR for imaging of primary prostate cancer.

PubMed

Giesel, F L; Sterzing, F; Schlemmer, H P; Holland-Letz, T; Mier, W; Rius, M; Afshar-Oromieh, A; Kopka, K; Debus, J; Haberkorn, U; Kratochwil, C

2016-07-01

Multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MP-MRI) is currently the most comprehensive work up for non-invasive primary tumor staging of prostate cancer (PCa). Prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) is presented to be a highly promising new technique for N- and M-staging in recurrent PCa-patients. The actual investigation analyses the potential of (68)Ga-PSMA11-PET/CT to assess the extent of primary prostate cancer by intra-individual comparison to MP-MRI. In a retrospective study, ten patients with primary PCa underwent MP-MRI and PSMA-PET/CT for initial staging. All tumors were proven histopathological by biopsy. Image analysis was done in a quantitative (SUVmax) and qualitative (blinded read) fashion based on PI-RADS. The PI-RADS schema was then translated into a 3D-matrix and the euclidian distance of this coordinate system was used to quantify the extend of agreement. Both MP-MRI and PSMA-PET/CT presented a good allocation of the PCa, which was also in concordance to the tumor location validated in eight-segment resolution by biopsy. An Isocontour of 50 % SUVmax in PSMA-PET resulted in visually concordant tumor extension in comparison to MP-MRI (T2w and DWI). For 89.4 % of sections containing a tumor according to MP-MRI, the tumor was also identified in total or near-total agreement (euclidian distance ≤1) by PSMA-PET. Vice versa for 96.8 % of the sections identified as tumor bearing by PSMA-PET the tumor was also found in total or near-total agreement by MP-MRI. PSMA-PET/CT and MP-MRI correlated well with regard to tumor allocation in patients with a high pre-test probability for large tumors. Further research will be needed to evaluate its value in challenging situation such as prostatitis or after repeated negative biopsies.

An approach for combining airborne LiDAR and high-resolution aerial color imagery using Gaussian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yansong; Monteiro, Sildomar T.; Saber, Eli

2015-10-01

Changes in vegetation cover, building construction, road network and traffic conditions caused by urban expansion affect the human habitat as well as the natural environment in rapidly developing cities. It is crucial to assess these changes and respond accordingly by identifying man-made and natural structures with accurate classification algorithms. With the increase in use of multi-sensor remote sensing systems, researchers are able to obtain a more complete description of the scene of interest. By utilizing multi-sensor data, the accuracy of classification algorithms can be improved. In this paper, we propose a method for combining 3D LiDAR point clouds and high-resolution color images to classify urban areas using Gaussian processes (GP). GP classification is a powerful non-parametric classification method that yields probabilistic classification results. It makes predictions in a way that addresses the uncertainty of real world. In this paper, we attempt to identify man-made and natural objects in urban areas including buildings, roads, trees, grass, water and vehicles. LiDAR features are derived from the 3D point clouds and the spatial and color features are extracted from RGB images. For classification, we use the Laplacian approximation for GP binary classification on the new combined feature space. The multiclass classification has been implemented by using one-vs-all binary classification strategy. The result of applying support vector machines (SVMs) and logistic regression (LR) classifier is also provided for comparison. Our experiments show a clear improvement of classification results by using the two sensors combined instead of each sensor separately. Also we found the advantage of applying GP approach to handle the uncertainty in classification result without compromising accuracy compared to SVM, which is considered as the state-of-the-art classification method.

Neutrino masses and their ordering: global data, priors and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariazzo, S.; Archidiacono, M.; de Salas, P. F.; Mena, O.; Ternes, C. A.; Tórtola, M.

2018-03-01

We present a full Bayesian analysis of the combination of current neutrino oscillation, neutrinoless double beta decay and Cosmic Microwave Background observations. Our major goal is to carefully investigate the possibility to single out one neutrino mass ordering, namely Normal Ordering or Inverted Ordering, with current data. Two possible parametrizations (three neutrino masses versus the lightest neutrino mass plus the two oscillation mass splittings) and priors (linear versus logarithmic) are exhaustively examined. We find that the preference for NO is only driven by neutrino oscillation data. Moreover, the values of the Bayes factor indicate that the evidence for NO is strong only when the scan is performed over the three neutrino masses with logarithmic priors; for every other combination of parameterization and prior, the preference for NO is only weak. As a by-product of our Bayesian analyses, we are able to (a) compare the Bayesian bounds on the neutrino mixing parameters to those obtained by means of frequentist approaches, finding a very good agreement; (b) determine that the lightest neutrino mass plus the two mass splittings parametrization, motivated by the physical observables, is strongly preferred over the three neutrino mass eigenstates scan and (c) find that logarithmic priors guarantee a weakly-to-moderately more efficient sampling of the parameter space. These results establish the optimal strategy to successfully explore the neutrino parameter space, based on the use of the oscillation mass splittings and a logarithmic prior on the lightest neutrino mass, when combining neutrino oscillation data with cosmology and neutrinoless double beta decay. We also show that the limits on the total neutrino mass ∑ mν can change dramatically when moving from one prior to the other. These results have profound implications for future studies on the neutrino mass ordering, as they crucially state the need for self-consistent analyses which explore the best parametrization and priors, without combining results that involve different assumptions.

Non-parametric representation and prediction of single- and multi-shell diffusion-weighted MRI data using Gaussian processes

PubMed Central

Andersson, Jesper L.R.; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N.

2015-01-01

Diffusion MRI offers great potential in studying the human brain microstructure and connectivity. However, diffusion images are marred by technical problems, such as image distortions and spurious signal loss. Correcting for these problems is non-trivial and relies on having a mechanism that predicts what to expect. In this paper we describe a novel way to represent and make predictions about diffusion MRI data. It is based on a Gaussian process on one or several spheres similar to the Geostatistical method of “Kriging”. We present a choice of covariance function that allows us to accurately predict the signal even from voxels with complex fibre patterns. For multi-shell data (multiple non-zero b-values) the covariance function extends across the shells which means that data from one shell is used when making predictions for another shell. PMID:26236030

Multi-Parametric MRI and Texture Analysis to Visualize Spatial Histologic Heterogeneity and Tumor Extent in Glioblastoma.

PubMed

Hu, Leland S; Ning, Shuluo; Eschbacher, Jennifer M; Gaw, Nathan; Dueck, Amylou C; Smith, Kris A; Nakaji, Peter; Plasencia, Jonathan; Ranjbar, Sara; Price, Stephen J; Tran, Nhan; Loftus, Joseph; Jenkins, Robert; O'Neill, Brian P; Elmquist, William; Baxter, Leslie C; Gao, Fei; Frakes, David; Karis, John P; Zwart, Christine; Swanson, Kristin R; Sarkaria, Jann; Wu, Teresa; Mitchell, J Ross; Li, Jing

2015-01-01

Genetic profiling represents the future of neuro-oncology but suffers from inadequate biopsies in heterogeneous tumors like Glioblastoma (GBM). Contrast-enhanced MRI (CE-MRI) targets enhancing core (ENH) but yields adequate tumor in only ~60% of cases. Further, CE-MRI poorly localizes infiltrative tumor within surrounding non-enhancing parenchyma, or brain-around-tumor (BAT), despite the importance of characterizing this tumor segment, which universally recurs. In this study, we use multiple texture analysis and machine learning (ML) algorithms to analyze multi-parametric MRI, and produce new images indicating tumor-rich targets in GBM. We recruited primary GBM patients undergoing image-guided biopsies and acquired pre-operative MRI: CE-MRI, Dynamic-Susceptibility-weighted-Contrast-enhanced-MRI, and Diffusion Tensor Imaging. Following image coregistration and region of interest placement at biopsy locations, we compared MRI metrics and regional texture with histologic diagnoses of high- vs low-tumor content (≥80% vs <80% tumor nuclei) for corresponding samples. In a training set, we used three texture analysis algorithms and three ML methods to identify MRI-texture features that optimized model accuracy to distinguish tumor content. We confirmed model accuracy in a separate validation set. We collected 82 biopsies from 18 GBMs throughout ENH and BAT. The MRI-based model achieved 85% cross-validated accuracy to diagnose high- vs low-tumor in the training set (60 biopsies, 11 patients). The model achieved 81.8% accuracy in the validation set (22 biopsies, 7 patients). Multi-parametric MRI and texture analysis can help characterize and visualize GBM's spatial histologic heterogeneity to identify regional tumor-rich biopsy targets.

Rediscovery of Good-Turing estimators via Bayesian nonparametrics.

PubMed

Favaro, Stefano; Nipoti, Bernardo; Teh, Yee Whye

2016-03-01

The problem of estimating discovery probabilities originated in the context of statistical ecology, and in recent years it has become popular due to its frequent appearance in challenging applications arising in genetics, bioinformatics, linguistics, designs of experiments, machine learning, etc. A full range of statistical approaches, parametric and nonparametric as well as frequentist and Bayesian, has been proposed for estimating discovery probabilities. In this article, we investigate the relationships between the celebrated Good-Turing approach, which is a frequentist nonparametric approach developed in the 1940s, and a Bayesian nonparametric approach recently introduced in the literature. Specifically, under the assumption of a two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior, we show that Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities are asymptotically equivalent, for a large sample size, to suitably smoothed Good-Turing estimators. As a by-product of this result, we introduce and investigate a methodology for deriving exact and asymptotic credible intervals to be associated with the Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study and the analysis of Expressed Sequence Tags data generated by sequencing a benchmark complementary DNA library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

A Robust Adaptive Autonomous Approach to Optimal Experimental Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Hairong

Experimentation is the fundamental tool of scientific inquiries to understand the laws governing the nature and human behaviors. Many complex real-world experimental scenarios, particularly in quest of prediction accuracy, often encounter difficulties to conduct experiments using an existing experimental procedure for the following two reasons. First, the existing experimental procedures require a parametric model to serve as the proxy of the latent data structure or data-generating mechanism at the beginning of an experiment. However, for those experimental scenarios of concern, a sound model is often unavailable before an experiment. Second, those experimental scenarios usually contain a large number of design variables, which potentially leads to a lengthy and costly data collection cycle. Incompetently, the existing experimental procedures are unable to optimize large-scale experiments so as to minimize the experimental length and cost. Facing the two challenges in those experimental scenarios, the aim of the present study is to develop a new experimental procedure that allows an experiment to be conducted without the assumption of a parametric model while still achieving satisfactory prediction, and performs optimization of experimental designs to improve the efficiency of an experiment. The new experimental procedure developed in the present study is named robust adaptive autonomous system (RAAS). RAAS is a procedure for sequential experiments composed of multiple experimental trials, which performs function estimation, variable selection, reverse prediction and design optimization on each trial. Directly addressing the challenges in those experimental scenarios of concern, function estimation and variable selection are performed by data-driven modeling methods to generate a predictive model from data collected during the course of an experiment, thus exempting the requirement of a parametric model at the beginning of an experiment; design optimization is performed to select experimental designs on the fly of an experiment based on their usefulness so that fewest designs are needed to reach useful inferential conclusions. Technically, function estimation is realized by Bayesian P-splines, variable selection is realized by Bayesian spike-and-slab prior, reverse prediction is realized by grid-search and design optimization is realized by the concepts of active learning. The present study demonstrated that RAAS achieves statistical robustness by making accurate predictions without the assumption of a parametric model serving as the proxy of latent data structure while the existing procedures can draw poor statistical inferences if a misspecified model is assumed; RAAS also achieves inferential efficiency by taking fewer designs to acquire useful statistical inferences than non-optimal procedures. Thus, RAAS is expected to be a principled solution to real-world experimental scenarios pursuing robust prediction and efficient experimentation.

Determining the multi-scale hedge ratios of stock index futures using the lower partial moments method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Jun; Zhou, Haigang; Zhao, Shaoquan

2017-01-01

This paper considers a multi-scale future hedge strategy that minimizes lower partial moments (LPM). To do this, wavelet analysis is adopted to decompose time series data into different components. Next, different parametric estimation methods with known distributions are applied to calculate the LPM of hedged portfolios, which is the key to determining multi-scale hedge ratios over different time scales. Then these parametric methods are compared with the prevailing nonparametric kernel metric method. Empirical results indicate that in the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and spot markets, hedge ratios and hedge efficiency estimated by the nonparametric kernel metric method are inferior to those estimated by parametric hedging model based on the features of sequence distributions. In addition, if minimum-LPM is selected as a hedge target, the hedging periods, degree of risk aversion, and target returns can affect the multi-scale hedge ratios and hedge efficiency, respectively.

Optimizing the static-dynamic performance of the body-in-white using a modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm coupled with grey relational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dengfeng; Cai, Kefang

2018-04-01

This article presents a hybrid method combining a modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (MNSGA-II) with grey relational analysis (GRA) to improve the static-dynamic performance of a body-in-white (BIW). First, an implicit parametric model of the BIW was built using SFE-CONCEPT software, and then the validity of the implicit parametric model was verified by physical testing. Eight shape design variables were defined for BIW beam structures based on the implicit parametric technology. Subsequently, MNSGA-II was used to determine the optimal combination of the design parameters that can improve the bending stiffness, torsion stiffness and low-order natural frequencies of the BIW without considerable increase in the mass. A set of non-dominated solutions was then obtained in the multi-objective optimization design. Finally, the grey entropy theory and GRA were applied to rank all non-dominated solutions from best to worst to determine the best trade-off solution. The comparison between the GRA and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) illustrated the reliability and rationality of GRA. Moreover, the effectiveness of the hybrid method was verified by the optimal results such that the bending stiffness, torsion stiffness, first order bending and first order torsion natural frequency were improved by 5.46%, 9.30%, 7.32% and 5.73%, respectively, with the mass of the BIW increasing by 1.30%.

Parametric and non-parametric modeling of short-term synaptic plasticity. Part I: computational study

PubMed Central

Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Berger, Theodore W.

2009-01-01

Parametric and non-parametric modeling methods are combined to study the short-term plasticity (STP) of synapses in the central nervous system (CNS). The nonlinear dynamics of STP are modeled by means: (1) previously proposed parametric models based on mechanistic hypotheses and/or specific dynamical processes, and (2) non-parametric models (in the form of Volterra kernels) that transforms the presynaptic signals into postsynaptic signals. In order to synergistically use the two approaches, we estimate the Volterra kernels of the parametric models of STP for four types of synapses using synthetic broadband input–output data. Results show that the non-parametric models accurately and efficiently replicate the input–output transformations of the parametric models. Volterra kernels provide a general and quantitative representation of the STP. PMID:18506609

[The influence of music on pictorial expression of young women--a comparative study of different music styles].

PubMed

Schiltz, L; Maugendre, M; Brytek-Matera, A

2010-01-01

Questing one's personal identity and developing a coherent representation of oneself, the other and the world are major tasks in adolescence. Research showed that a satisfactory resolution of the crisis of adolescence can be favoured by psychological counselling based on artistic mediations. The objective of this study consisted in exploring the effect of music on the pictorial expression of a non clinical sample of female adolescents (N=157) aged from 17 to 28 years. We analysed free drawings realised by the test group with the help of a rating scale constructed in a phenomenological and structural perspective (Schiltz, 2006). The adolescents painted under musical induction. We proposed three different styles of music, i.e. baroque music (Georg Friedrich Händel and Johann Sebastian Bach), classical music (Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and Ludwig van Beethoven) and polish ethnical music (Kapela ze Wsi Warszawa-Warsaw Village Band). By using non parametric inferential and multi dimensional statistics, we could show that structural characteristics of music styles lead to differences in formal and content variables on the rating scales for the pictures. The results of our exploratory study open some tracks for future research. It would be pertinent to enlarge the population to other categories of age and to investigate the influence of gender.

High Resolution Full-Aperture ISAR Processing through Modified Doppler History Based Motion Compensation

PubMed Central

Song, Jung-Hwan; Lee, Kee-Woong; Lee, Woo-Kyung; Jung, Chul-Ho

2017-01-01

A high resolution inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) technique is presented using modified Doppler history based motion compensation. To this purpose, a novel wideband ISAR system is developed that accommodates parametric processing over extended aperture length. The proposed method is derived from an ISAR-to-SAR approach that makes use of high resolution spotlight SAR and sub-aperture recombination. It is dedicated to wide aperture ISAR imaging and exhibits robust performance against unstable targets having non-linear motions. We demonstrate that the Doppler histories of the full aperture ISAR echoes from disturbed targets are efficiently retrieved with good fitting models. Experiments have been conducted on real aircraft targets and the feasibility of the full aperture ISAR processing is verified through the acquisition of high resolution ISAR imagery. PMID:28555036

Modeling SF-6D Hong Kong standard gamble health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A; Brazier, John E; McGhee, Sarah

2013-01-01

This article reports on the findings from applying a recently described approach to modeling health state valuation data and the impact of the respondent characteristics on health state valuations. The approach applies a nonparametric model to estimate a Bayesian six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey) health state valuation algorithm. A sample of 197 states defined by the six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey)has been valued by a representative sample of the Hong Kong general population by using standard gamble. The article reports the application of the nonparametric model and compares it to the original model estimated by using a conventional parametric random effects model. The two models are compared theoretically and in terms of empirical performance. Advantages of the nonparametric model are that it can be used to predict scores in populations with different distributions of characteristics than observed in the survey sample and that it allows for the impact of respondent characteristics to vary by health state (while ensuring that full health passes through unity). The results suggest an important age effect with sex, having some effect, but the remaining covariates having no discernible effect. The nonparametric Bayesian model is argued to be more theoretically appropriate than previously used parametric models. Furthermore, it is more flexible to take into account the impact of covariates. Copyright © 2013, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method.

PubMed

Norris, Peter M; da Silva, Arlindo M

2016-07-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 1: Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Peter M.; Da Silva, Arlindo M.

2016-01-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method

PubMed Central

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2018-01-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC. PMID:29618847

Least Squares Distance Method of Cognitive Validation and Analysis for Binary Items Using Their Item Response Theory Parameters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dimitrov, Dimiter M.

2007-01-01

The validation of cognitive attributes required for correct answers on binary test items or tasks has been addressed in previous research through the integration of cognitive psychology and psychometric models using parametric or nonparametric item response theory, latent class modeling, and Bayesian modeling. All previous models, each with their…

Hypothesis testing on the fractal structure of behavioral sequences: the Bayesian assessment of scaling methodology.

PubMed

Moscoso del Prado Martín, Fermín

2013-12-01

I introduce the Bayesian assessment of scaling (BAS), a simple but powerful Bayesian hypothesis contrast methodology that can be used to test hypotheses on the scaling regime exhibited by a sequence of behavioral data. Rather than comparing parametric models, as typically done in previous approaches, the BAS offers a direct, nonparametric way to test whether a time series exhibits fractal scaling. The BAS provides a simpler and faster test than do previous methods, and the code for making the required computations is provided. The method also enables testing of finely specified hypotheses on the scaling indices, something that was not possible with the previously available methods. I then present 4 simulation studies showing that the BAS methodology outperforms the other methods used in the psychological literature. I conclude with a discussion of methodological issues on fractal analyses in experimental psychology. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Bayesian component separation: The Planck experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehus, Ingunn Kathrine; Eriksen, Hans Kristian

2018-05-01

Bayesian component separation techniques have played a central role in the data reduction process of Planck. The most important strength of this approach is its global nature, in which a parametric and physical model is fitted to the data. Such physical modeling allows the user to constrain very general data models, and jointly probe cosmological, astrophysical and instrumental parameters. This approach also supports statistically robust goodness-of-fit tests in terms of data-minus-model residual maps, which are essential for identifying residual systematic effects in the data. The main challenges are high code complexity and computational cost. Whether or not these costs are justified for a given experiment depends on its final uncertainty budget. We therefore predict that the importance of Bayesian component separation techniques is likely to increase with time for intensity mapping experiments, similar to what has happened in the CMB field, as observational techniques mature, and their overall sensitivity improves.

Influence of signal intensity non-uniformity on brain volumetry using an atlas-based method.

PubMed

Goto, Masami; Abe, Osamu; Miyati, Tosiaki; Kabasawa, Hiroyuki; Takao, Hidemasa; Hayashi, Naoto; Kurosu, Tomomi; Iwatsubo, Takeshi; Yamashita, Fumio; Matsuda, Hiroshi; Mori, Harushi; Kunimatsu, Akira; Aoki, Shigeki; Ino, Kenji; Yano, Keiichi; Ohtomo, Kuni

2012-01-01

Many studies have reported pre-processing effects for brain volumetry; however, no study has investigated whether non-parametric non-uniform intensity normalization (N3) correction processing results in reduced system dependency when using an atlas-based method. To address this shortcoming, the present study assessed whether N3 correction processing provides reduced system dependency in atlas-based volumetry. Contiguous sagittal T1-weighted images of the brain were obtained from 21 healthy participants, by using five magnetic resonance protocols. After image preprocessing using the Statistical Parametric Mapping 5 software, we measured the structural volume of the segmented images with the WFU-PickAtlas software. We applied six different bias-correction levels (Regularization 10, Regularization 0.0001, Regularization 0, Regularization 10 with N3, Regularization 0.0001 with N3, and Regularization 0 with N3) to each set of images. The structural volume change ratio (%) was defined as the change ratio (%) = (100 × [measured volume - mean volume of five magnetic resonance protocols] / mean volume of five magnetic resonance protocols) for each bias-correction level. A low change ratio was synonymous with lower system dependency. The results showed that the images with the N3 correction had a lower change ratio compared with those without the N3 correction. The present study is the first atlas-based volumetry study to show that the precision of atlas-based volumetry improves when using N3-corrected images. Therefore, correction for signal intensity non-uniformity is strongly advised for multi-scanner or multi-site imaging trials.

Influence of Signal Intensity Non-Uniformity on Brain Volumetry Using an Atlas-Based Method

PubMed Central

Abe, Osamu; Miyati, Tosiaki; Kabasawa, Hiroyuki; Takao, Hidemasa; Hayashi, Naoto; Kurosu, Tomomi; Iwatsubo, Takeshi; Yamashita, Fumio; Matsuda, Hiroshi; Mori, Harushi; Kunimatsu, Akira; Aoki, Shigeki; Ino, Kenji; Yano, Keiichi; Ohtomo, Kuni

2012-01-01

Objective Many studies have reported pre-processing effects for brain volumetry; however, no study has investigated whether non-parametric non-uniform intensity normalization (N3) correction processing results in reduced system dependency when using an atlas-based method. To address this shortcoming, the present study assessed whether N3 correction processing provides reduced system dependency in atlas-based volumetry. Materials and Methods Contiguous sagittal T1-weighted images of the brain were obtained from 21 healthy participants, by using five magnetic resonance protocols. After image preprocessing using the Statistical Parametric Mapping 5 software, we measured the structural volume of the segmented images with the WFU-PickAtlas software. We applied six different bias-correction levels (Regularization 10, Regularization 0.0001, Regularization 0, Regularization 10 with N3, Regularization 0.0001 with N3, and Regularization 0 with N3) to each set of images. The structural volume change ratio (%) was defined as the change ratio (%) = (100 × [measured volume - mean volume of five magnetic resonance protocols] / mean volume of five magnetic resonance protocols) for each bias-correction level. Results A low change ratio was synonymous with lower system dependency. The results showed that the images with the N3 correction had a lower change ratio compared with those without the N3 correction. Conclusion The present study is the first atlas-based volumetry study to show that the precision of atlas-based volumetry improves when using N3-corrected images. Therefore, correction for signal intensity non-uniformity is strongly advised for multi-scanner or multi-site imaging trials. PMID:22778560

Non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects in the MHD solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demin, S. A.; Nefedyev, Y. A.; Andreev, A. O.; Demina, N. Y.; Timashev, S. F.

2018-01-01

The analysis of turbulent processes in sunspots and pores which are self-organizing long-lived magnetic structures is a complicated and not yet solved problem. The present work focuses on studying such magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) formations on the basis of flicker-noise spectroscopy using a new method of multi-parametric analysis. The non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects taking place in solar activity dynamics are considered. The calculated maximum values of non-stationarity factor may become precursors of significant restructuring in solar magnetic activity. The introduced cross-correlation functions enable us to judge synchronization effects between the signals of various solar activity indicators registered simultaneously.

Quantum non-Gaussianity and quantification of nonclassicality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühn, B.; Vogel, W.

2018-05-01

The algebraic quantification of nonclassicality, which naturally arises from the quantum superposition principle, is related to properties of regular nonclassicality quasiprobabilities. The latter are obtained by non-Gaussian filtering of the Glauber-Sudarshan P function. They yield lower bounds for the degree of nonclassicality. We also derive bounds for convex combinations of Gaussian states for certifying quantum non-Gaussianity directly from the experimentally accessible nonclassicality quasiprobabilities. Other quantum-state representations, such as s -parametrized quasiprobabilities, insufficiently indicate or even fail to directly uncover detailed information on the properties of quantum states. As an example, our approach is applied to multi-photon-added squeezed vacuum states.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part 1; Method and Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Yang, Song; Petty, Grant W.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Bell, Thomas L.; Braun, Scott A.; Wang, Yansen; Lang, Stephen E.; Johnson, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Long Coherence Length 193 nm Laser for High-Resolution Nano-Fabrication

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-27

in the non-linear optical up-converter, as well as specifying their interaction lengths, phase -matching angles, coatings, temperatures of operation...when optical path differences between interfering beams become comparable to the temporal coherence length of the source, the fringe contrast diminishes...switched, intracavity frequency doubled Nd:YAG laser drives an optical parametric oscillator (OPO) running at 710 nm. A portion of the 532 nm light

Methodological study of affine transformations of gene expression data with proposed robust non-parametric multi-dimensional normalization method.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Henrik; Hössjer, Ola

2006-03-01

Low-level processing and normalization of microarray data are most important steps in microarray analysis, which have profound impact on downstream analysis. Multiple methods have been suggested to date, but it is not clear which is the best. It is therefore important to further study the different normalization methods in detail and the nature of microarray data in general. A methodological study of affine models for gene expression data is carried out. Focus is on two-channel comparative studies, but the findings generalize also to single- and multi-channel data. The discussion applies to spotted as well as in-situ synthesized microarray data. Existing normalization methods such as curve-fit ("lowess") normalization, parallel and perpendicular translation normalization, and quantile normalization, but also dye-swap normalization are revisited in the light of the affine model and their strengths and weaknesses are investigated in this context. As a direct result from this study, we propose a robust non-parametric multi-dimensional affine normalization method, which can be applied to any number of microarrays with any number of channels either individually or all at once. A high-quality cDNA microarray data set with spike-in controls is used to demonstrate the power of the affine model and the proposed normalization method. We find that an affine model can explain non-linear intensity-dependent systematic effects in observed log-ratios. Affine normalization removes such artifacts for non-differentially expressed genes and assures that symmetry between negative and positive log-ratios is obtained, which is fundamental when identifying differentially expressed genes. In addition, affine normalization makes the empirical distributions in different channels more equal, which is the purpose of quantile normalization, and may also explain why dye-swap normalization works or fails. All methods are made available in the aroma package, which is a platform-independent package for R.

A preliminary probabilistic analysis of tsunami sources of seismic and non-seismic origin applied to the city of Naples, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Anita, G.

2011-12-01

In both worldwide and regional historical catalogues, most of the tsunamis are caused by earthquakes and a minor percentage is represented by all the other non-seismic sources. On the other hand, tsunami hazard and risk studies are often applied to very specific areas, where this global trend can be different or even inverted, depending on the kind of potential tsunamigenic sources which characterize the case study. So far, few probabilistic approaches consider the contribution of landslides and/or phenomena derived by volcanic activity, i.e. pyroclastic flows and flank collapses, as predominant in the PTHA, also because of the difficulties to estimate the correspondent recurrence time. These considerations are valid, for example, for the city of Naples, Italy, which is surrounded by a complex active volcanic system (Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, Ischia) that presents a significant number of potential tsunami sources of non-seismic origin compared to the seismic ones. In this work we present the preliminary results of a probabilistic multi-source tsunami hazard assessment applied to Naples. The method to estimate the uncertainties will be based on Bayesian inference. This is the first step towards a more comprehensive task which will provide a tsunami risk quantification for this town in the frame of the Italian national project ByMuR (http://bymur.bo.ingv.it). This three years long ongoing project has the final objective of developing a Bayesian multi-risk methodology to quantify the risk related to different natural hazards (volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis) applied to the city of Naples.

Application of multi-scale wavelet entropy and multi-resolution Volterra models for climatic downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sehgal, V.; Lakhanpal, A.; Maheswaran, R.; Khosa, R.; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-01-01

This study proposes a wavelet-based multi-resolution modeling approach for statistical downscaling of GCM variables to mean monthly precipitation for five locations at Krishna Basin, India. Climatic dataset from NCEP is used for training the proposed models (Jan.'69 to Dec.'94) and are applied to corresponding CanCM4 GCM variables to simulate precipitation for the validation (Jan.'95-Dec.'05) and forecast (Jan.'06-Dec.'35) periods. The observed precipitation data is obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product at 0.25 degree spatial resolution. This paper proposes a novel Multi-Scale Wavelet Entropy (MWE) based approach for clustering climatic variables into suitable clusters using k-means methodology. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to obtain the representative Principal Components (PC) explaining 90-95% variance for each cluster. A multi-resolution non-linear approach combining Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Second Order Volterra (SoV) is used to model the representative PCs to obtain the downscaled precipitation for each downscaling location (W-P-SoV model). The results establish that wavelet-based multi-resolution SoV models perform significantly better compared to the traditional Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) based frameworks. It is observed that the proposed MWE-based clustering and subsequent PCA, helps reduce the dimensionality of the input climatic variables, while capturing more variability compared to stand-alone k-means (no MWE). The proposed models perform better in estimating the number of precipitation events during the non-monsoon periods whereas the models with clustering without MWE over-estimate the rainfall during the dry season.

The NWRA Classification Infrastructure: description and extension to the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leka, K. D.; Barnes, Graham; Wagner, Eric

2018-04-01

A classification infrastructure built upon Discriminant Analysis (DA) has been developed at NorthWest Research Associates for examining the statistical differences between samples of two known populations. Originating to examine the physical differences between flare-quiet and flare-imminent solar active regions, we describe herein some details of the infrastructure including: parametrization of large datasets, schemes for handling "null" and "bad" data in multi-parameter analysis, application of non-parametric multi-dimensional DA, an extension through Bayes' theorem to probabilistic classification, and methods invoked for evaluating classifier success. The classifier infrastructure is applicable to a wide range of scientific questions in solar physics. We demonstrate its application to the question of distinguishing flare-imminent from flare-quiet solar active regions, updating results from the original publications that were based on different data and much smaller sample sizes. Finally, as a demonstration of "Research to Operations" efforts in the space-weather forecasting context, we present the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS), a near-real-time operationally-running solar flare forecasting tool that was developed from the research-directed infrastructure.

3D reconstruction from multi-view VHR-satellite images in MicMac

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupnik, Ewelina; Pierrot-Deseilligny, Marc; Delorme, Arthur

2018-05-01

This work addresses the generation of high quality digital surface models by fusing multiple depths maps calculated with the dense image matching method. The algorithm is adapted to very high resolution multi-view satellite images, and the main contributions of this work are in the multi-view fusion. The algorithm is insensitive to outliers, takes into account the matching quality indicators, handles non-correlated zones (e.g. occlusions), and is solved with a multi-directional dynamic programming approach. No geometric constraints (e.g. surface planarity) or auxiliary data in form of ground control points are required for its operation. Prior to the fusion procedures, the RPC geolocation parameters of all images are improved in a bundle block adjustment routine. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated on two VHR (Very High Resolution)-satellite image datasets (Pléiades, WorldView-3) revealing its good performance in reconstructing non-textured areas, repetitive patterns, and surface discontinuities.

Scaling cosmology with variable dark-energy equation of state

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, David R.; Velten, Hermano; Zimdahl, Winfried, E-mail: drodriguez-ufes@hotmail.com, E-mail: velten@physik.uni-bielefeld.de, E-mail: winfried.zimdahl@pq.cnpq.br

2012-06-01

Interactions between dark matter and dark energy which result in a power-law behavior (with respect to the cosmic scale factor) of the ratio between the energy densities of the dark components (thus generalizing the ΛCDM model) have been considered as an attempt to alleviate the cosmic coincidence problem phenomenologically. We generalize this approach by allowing for a variable equation of state for the dark energy within the CPL-parametrization. Based on analytic solutions for the Hubble rate and using the Constitution and Union2 SNIa sets, we present a statistical analysis and classify different interacting and non-interacting models according to the Akaikemore » (AIC) and the Bayesian (BIC) information criteria. We do not find noticeable evidence for an alleviation of the coincidence problem with the mentioned type of interaction.« less

An information-theoretic approach to assess practical identifiability of parametric dynamical systems.

PubMed

Pant, Sanjay; Lombardi, Damiano

2015-10-01

A new approach for assessing parameter identifiability of dynamical systems in a Bayesian setting is presented. The concept of Shannon entropy is employed to measure the inherent uncertainty in the parameters. The expected reduction in this uncertainty is seen as the amount of information one expects to gain about the parameters due to the availability of noisy measurements of the dynamical system. Such expected information gain is interpreted in terms of the variance of a hypothetical measurement device that can measure the parameters directly, and is related to practical identifiability of the parameters. If the individual parameters are unidentifiable, correlation between parameter combinations is assessed through conditional mutual information to determine which sets of parameters can be identified together. The information theoretic quantities of entropy and information are evaluated numerically through a combination of Monte Carlo and k-nearest neighbour methods in a non-parametric fashion. Unlike many methods to evaluate identifiability proposed in the literature, the proposed approach takes the measurement-noise into account and is not restricted to any particular noise-structure. Whilst computationally intensive for large dynamical systems, it is easily parallelisable and is non-intrusive as it does not necessitate re-writing of the numerical solvers of the dynamical system. The application of such an approach is presented for a variety of dynamical systems--ranging from systems governed by ordinary differential equations to partial differential equations--and, where possible, validated against results previously published in the literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating fracture spacing from natural tracers in shale-gas production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S. J.; McKenna, S. A.; Heath, J. E.; Gardner, P.

2012-12-01

Resource appraisal and long-term recovery potential of shale gas relies on the characteristics of the fracture networks created within the formation. Both well testing and analysis of micro-seismic data can provide information on fracture characteristics, but approaches that directly utilize observations of gas transport through the fractures are not well-developed. We examine transport of natural tracers and analyze the breakthrough curves (BTC's) of these tracers with a multi-rate mass transfer (MMT) model to elucidate fracture characteristics. The focus here is on numerical simulation studies to determine constraints on the ability to accurately estimate fracture network characteristics as a function of the diffusion coefficients of the natural tracers, the number and timing of observations, the flow rates from the well, and the noise in the observations. Traditional tracer testing approaches for dual-porosity systems analyze the BTC of an injected tracer to obtain fracture spacing considering a single spacing value. An alternative model is the MMT model where diffusive mass transfer occurs simultaneously over a range of matrix block sizes defined by a statistical distribution (e.g., log-normal, gamma, or power-law). The goal of the estimation is defining the parameters of the fracture spacing distribution. The MMT model has not yet been applied to analysis of natural in situ natural tracers. Natural tracers are omnipresent in the subsurface, potentially obviating the needed for introduced tracers, and could be used to improve upon fracture characteristics estimated from pressure transient and decline curve production analysis. Results of this study provide guidance for data collection and analysis of natural tracers in fractured shale formations. Parameter estimation on simulated BTC's will provide guidance on the necessary timing of BTC sampling in field experiments. The MMT model can result in non-unique or nonphysical parameter estimates. We address this with Bayesian estimation approaches that can define uncertainty in estimated parameters as a posterior probability distribution. We will also use Bayesian estimation to examine model identifiability (e.g., selecting between parametric distributions of fracture spacing) from various BTC's. Application of the MMT model to natural tracers and hydraulic fractures in shale will require extension of the model to account for partitioning of the tracers between multiple phases and different mass transfer behavior in mixed gas-liquid (e.g., oil or groundwater rich) systems. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss the uncertainty of inferences, and how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Parametric spectro-temporal analyzer (PASTA) for ultrafast optical performance monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Wong, Kenneth K. Y.

2013-12-01

Ultrafast optical spectrum monitoring is one of the most challenging tasks in observing ultrafast phenomena, such as the spectroscopy, dynamic observation of the laser cavity, and spectral encoded imaging systems. However, conventional method such as optical spectrum analyzer (OSA) spatially disperses the spectrum, but the space-to-time mapping is realized by mechanical rotation of a grating, so are incapable of operating at high speed. Besides the spatial dispersion, temporal dispersion provided by dispersive fiber can also stretches the spectrum in time domain in an ultrafast manner, but is primarily confined in measuring short pulses. In view of these constraints, here we present a real-time spectrum analyzer called parametric spectro-temporal analyzer (PASTA), which is based on the time-lens focusing mechanism. It achieves a 100-MHz frame rate and can measure arbitrary waveforms. For the first time, we observe the dynamic spectrum of an ultrafast swept-source: Fourier domain mode-locked (FDML) laser, and the spectrum evolution of a laser cavity during its stabilizing process. In addition to the basic single-lens structure, the multi-lens configurations (e.g. telescope or wide-angle scope) will provide a versatile operating condition, which can zoom in to achieve 0.05-nm resolution and zoom out to achieve 10-nm observation range, namely 17 times zoom in/out ratio. In view of the goal of achieving spectrum analysis with fine accuracy, PASTA provides a promising path to study the real-time spectrum of some dynamic phenomena and non-repetitive events, with orders of magnitude enhancement in the frame rate over conventional OSAs.

Spatio-Temporal Super-Resolution Reconstruction of Remote-Sensing Images Based on Adaptive Multi-Scale Detail Enhancement

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hong; Tang, Xinming; Xie, Junfeng; Song, Weidong; Mo, Fan; Gao, Xiaoming

2018-01-01

There are many problems in existing reconstruction-based super-resolution algorithms, such as the lack of texture-feature representation and of high-frequency details. Multi-scale detail enhancement can produce more texture information and high-frequency information. Therefore, super-resolution reconstruction of remote-sensing images based on adaptive multi-scale detail enhancement (AMDE-SR) is proposed in this paper. First, the information entropy of each remote-sensing image is calculated, and the image with the maximum entropy value is regarded as the reference image. Subsequently, spatio-temporal remote-sensing images are processed using phase normalization, which is to reduce the time phase difference of image data and enhance the complementarity of information. The multi-scale image information is then decomposed using the L0 gradient minimization model, and the non-redundant information is processed by difference calculation and expanding non-redundant layers and the redundant layer by the iterative back-projection (IBP) technique. The different-scale non-redundant information is adaptive-weighted and fused using cross-entropy. Finally, a nonlinear texture-detail-enhancement function is built to improve the scope of small details, and the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) is used as an iterative constraint. Ultimately, high-resolution remote-sensing images with abundant texture information are obtained by iterative optimization. Real results show an average gain in entropy of up to 0.42 dB for an up-scaling of 2 and a significant promotion gain in enhancement measure evaluation for an up-scaling of 2. The experimental results show that the performance of the AMED-SR method is better than existing super-resolution reconstruction methods in terms of visual and accuracy improvements. PMID:29414893

Spatio-Temporal Super-Resolution Reconstruction of Remote-Sensing Images Based on Adaptive Multi-Scale Detail Enhancement.

PubMed

Zhu, Hong; Tang, Xinming; Xie, Junfeng; Song, Weidong; Mo, Fan; Gao, Xiaoming

2018-02-07

There are many problems in existing reconstruction-based super-resolution algorithms, such as the lack of texture-feature representation and of high-frequency details. Multi-scale detail enhancement can produce more texture information and high-frequency information. Therefore, super-resolution reconstruction of remote-sensing images based on adaptive multi-scale detail enhancement (AMDE-SR) is proposed in this paper. First, the information entropy of each remote-sensing image is calculated, and the image with the maximum entropy value is regarded as the reference image. Subsequently, spatio-temporal remote-sensing images are processed using phase normalization, which is to reduce the time phase difference of image data and enhance the complementarity of information. The multi-scale image information is then decomposed using the L ₀ gradient minimization model, and the non-redundant information is processed by difference calculation and expanding non-redundant layers and the redundant layer by the iterative back-projection (IBP) technique. The different-scale non-redundant information is adaptive-weighted and fused using cross-entropy. Finally, a nonlinear texture-detail-enhancement function is built to improve the scope of small details, and the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) is used as an iterative constraint. Ultimately, high-resolution remote-sensing images with abundant texture information are obtained by iterative optimization. Real results show an average gain in entropy of up to 0.42 dB for an up-scaling of 2 and a significant promotion gain in enhancement measure evaluation for an up-scaling of 2. The experimental results show that the performance of the AMED-SR method is better than existing super-resolution reconstruction methods in terms of visual and accuracy improvements.

Inferring soil salinity in a drip irrigation system from multi-configuration EMI measurements using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaib Jadoon, Khan; Umer Altaf, Muhammad; McCabe, Matthew Francis; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Muhammad, Nisar; Moghadas, Davood; Weihermüller, Lutz

2017-10-01

A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In MCMC the posterior distribution is computed using Bayes' rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell's equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD Mini-Explorer. Uncertainty in the parameters for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness as compared to layers electrical conductivity are not very informative and are therefore difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC-based inversion to field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrates that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provides useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.

Predicting the multi-domain progression of Parkinson's disease: a Bayesian multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model.

PubMed

Wang, Ming; Li, Zheng; Lee, Eun Young; Lewis, Mechelle M; Zhang, Lijun; Sterling, Nicholas W; Wagner, Daymond; Eslinger, Paul; Du, Guangwei; Huang, Xuemei

2017-09-25

It is challenging for current statistical models to predict clinical progression of Parkinson's disease (PD) because of the involvement of multi-domains and longitudinal data. Past univariate longitudinal or multivariate analyses from cross-sectional trials have limited power to predict individual outcomes or a single moment. The multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model (GLMM) under the Bayesian framework was proposed to study multi-domain longitudinal outcomes obtained at baseline, 18-, and 36-month. The outcomes included motor, non-motor, and postural instability scores from the MDS-UPDRS, and demographic and standardized clinical data were utilized as covariates. The dynamic prediction was performed for both internal and external subjects using the samples from the posterior distributions of the parameter estimates and random effects, and also the predictive accuracy was evaluated based on the root of mean square error (RMSE), absolute bias (AB) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. First, our prediction model identified clinical data that were differentially associated with motor, non-motor, and postural stability scores. Second, the predictive accuracy of our model for the training data was assessed, and improved prediction was gained in particularly for non-motor (RMSE and AB: 2.89 and 2.20) compared to univariate analysis (RMSE and AB: 3.04 and 2.35). Third, the individual-level predictions of longitudinal trajectories for the testing data were performed, with ~80% observed values falling within the 95% credible intervals. Multivariate general mixed models hold promise to predict clinical progression of individual outcomes in PD. The data was obtained from Dr. Xuemei Huang's NIH grant R01 NS060722 , part of NINDS PD Biomarker Program (PDBP). All data was entered within 24 h of collection to the Data Management Repository (DMR), which is publically available ( https://pdbp.ninds.nih.gov/data-management ).

Documenting the location of systematic transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies: correlation with multi-parametric MRI.

PubMed

Turkbey, Baris; Xu, Sheng; Kruecker, Jochen; Locklin, Julia; Pang, Yuxi; Shah, Vijay; Bernardo, Marcelino; Baccala, Angelo; Rastinehad, Ardeshir; Benjamin, Compton; Merino, Maria J; Wood, Bradford J; Choyke, Peter L; Pinto, Peter A

2011-03-29

During transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsies, the actual location of the biopsy site is rarely documented. Here, we demonstrate the capability of TRUS-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) image fusion to document the biopsy site and correlate biopsy results with multi-parametric MRI findings. Fifty consecutive patients (median age 61 years) with a median prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of 5.8 ng/ml underwent 12-core TRUS-guided biopsy of the prostate. Pre-procedural T2-weighted magnetic resonance images were fused to TRUS. A disposable needle guide with miniature tracking sensors was attached to the TRUS probe to enable fusion with MRI. Real-time TRUS images during biopsy and the corresponding tracking information were recorded. Each biopsy site was superimposed onto the MRI. Each biopsy site was classified as positive or negative for cancer based on the results of each MRI sequence. Sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating curve (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) values were calculated for multi-parametric MRI. Gleason scores for each multi-parametric MRI pattern were also evaluated. Six hundred and 5 systemic biopsy cores were analyzed in 50 patients, of whom 20 patients had 56 positive cores. MRI identified 34 of 56 positive cores. Overall, sensitivity, specificity, and ROC area values for multi-parametric MRI were 0.607, 0.727, 0.667, respectively. TRUS-MRI fusion after biopsy can be used to document the location of each biopsy site, which can then be correlated with MRI findings. Based on correlation with tracked biopsies, T2-weighted MRI and apparent diffusion coefficient maps derived from diffusion-weighted MRI are the most sensitive sequences, whereas the addition of delayed contrast enhancement MRI and three-dimensional magnetic resonance spectroscopy demonstrated higher specificity consistent with results obtained using radical prostatectomy specimens.

Structural and parameteric uncertainty quantification in cloud microphysics parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lier-Walqui, M.; Morrison, H.; Kumjian, M. R.; Prat, O. P.; Martinkus, C.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric model parameterization schemes employ approximations to represent the effects of unresolved processes. These approximations are a source of error in forecasts, caused in part by considerable uncertainty about the optimal value of parameters within each scheme -- parameteric uncertainty. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the best choice of the overarching structure of the parameterization scheme -- structrual uncertainty. Parameter estimation can constrain the first, but may struggle with the second because structural choices are typically discrete. We address this problem in the context of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes by creating a flexible framework wherein structural and parametric uncertainties can be simultaneously constrained. Our scheme makes no assuptions about drop size distribution shape or the functional form of parametrized process rate terms. Instead, these uncertainties are constrained by observations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler within a Bayesian inference framework. Our scheme, the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), has flexibility to predict various sets of prognostic drop size distribution moments as well as varying complexity of process rate formulations. We compare idealized probabilistic forecasts from versions of BOSS with varying levels of structural complexity. This work has applications in ensemble forecasts with model physics uncertainty, data assimilation, and cloud microphysics process studies.

Algorithmic procedures for Bayesian MEG/EEG source reconstruction in SPM.

PubMed

López, J D; Litvak, V; Espinosa, J J; Friston, K; Barnes, G R

2014-01-01

The MEG/EEG inverse problem is ill-posed, giving different source reconstructions depending on the initial assumption sets. Parametric Empirical Bayes allows one to implement most popular MEG/EEG inversion schemes (Minimum Norm, LORETA, etc.) within the same generic Bayesian framework. It also provides a cost-function in terms of the variational Free energy-an approximation to the marginal likelihood or evidence of the solution. In this manuscript, we revisit the algorithm for MEG/EEG source reconstruction with a view to providing a didactic and practical guide. The aim is to promote and help standardise the development and consolidation of other schemes within the same framework. We describe the implementation in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software package, carefully explaining each of its stages with the help of a simple simulated data example. We focus on the Multiple Sparse Priors (MSP) model, which we compare with the well-known Minimum Norm and LORETA models, using the negative variational Free energy for model comparison. The manuscript is accompanied by Matlab scripts to allow the reader to test and explore the underlying algorithm. © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects joint models for longitudinal data with multiple features.

PubMed

Zhang, Hanze; Huang, Yangxin; Wang, Wei; Chen, Henian; Langland-Orban, Barbara

2017-01-01

In longitudinal AIDS studies, it is of interest to investigate the relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts, as well as the complicated time effect. Most of common models to analyze such complex longitudinal data are based on mean-regression, which fails to provide efficient estimates due to outliers and/or heavy tails. Quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects models, a special case of semiparametric models enjoying benefits of both parametric and nonparametric models, have the flexibility to monitor the viral dynamics nonparametrically and detect the varying CD4 effects parametrically at different quantiles of viral load. Meanwhile, it is critical to consider various data features of repeated measurements, including left-censoring due to a limit of detection, covariate measurement error, and asymmetric distribution. In this research, we first establish a Bayesian joint models that accounts for all these data features simultaneously in the framework of quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects models. The proposed models are applied to analyze the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) data. Simulation studies are also conducted to assess the performance of the proposed methods under different scenarios.

Mapping malaria risk among children in Côte d'Ivoire using Bayesian geo-statistical models.

PubMed

Raso, Giovanna; Schur, Nadine; Utzinger, Jürg; Koudou, Benjamin G; Tchicaya, Emile S; Rohner, Fabian; N'goran, Eliézer K; Silué, Kigbafori D; Matthys, Barbara; Assi, Serge; Tanner, Marcel; Vounatsou, Penelope

2012-05-09

In Côte d'Ivoire, an estimated 767,000 disability-adjusted life years are due to malaria, placing the country at position number 14 with regard to the global burden of malaria. Risk maps are important to guide control interventions, and hence, the aim of this study was to predict the geographical distribution of malaria infection risk in children aged <16 years in Côte d'Ivoire at high spatial resolution. Using different data sources, a systematic review was carried out to compile and geo-reference survey data on Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence in Côte d'Ivoire, focusing on children aged <16 years. The period from 1988 to 2007 was covered. A suite of Bayesian geo-statistical logistic regression models was fitted to analyse malaria risk. Non-spatial models with and without exchangeable random effect parameters were compared to stationary and non-stationary spatial models. Non-stationarity was modelled assuming that the underlying spatial process is a mixture of separate stationary processes in each ecological zone. The best fitting model based on the deviance information criterion was used to predict Plasmodium spp. infection risk for entire Côte d'Ivoire, including uncertainty. Overall, 235 data points at 170 unique survey locations with malaria prevalence data for individuals aged <16 years were extracted. Most data points (n = 182, 77.4%) were collected between 2000 and 2007. A Bayesian non-stationary regression model showed the best fit with annualized rainfall and maximum land surface temperature identified as significant environmental covariates. This model was used to predict malaria infection risk at non-sampled locations. High-risk areas were mainly found in the north-central and western area, while relatively low-risk areas were located in the north at the country border, in the north-east, in the south-east around Abidjan, and in the central-west between two high prevalence areas. The malaria risk map at high spatial resolution gives an important overview of the geographical distribution of the disease in Côte d'Ivoire. It is a useful tool for the national malaria control programme and can be utilized for spatial targeting of control interventions and rational resource allocation.

Mapping malaria risk among children in Côte d’Ivoire using Bayesian geo-statistical models

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In Côte d’Ivoire, an estimated 767,000 disability-adjusted life years are due to malaria, placing the country at position number 14 with regard to the global burden of malaria. Risk maps are important to guide control interventions, and hence, the aim of this study was to predict the geographical distribution of malaria infection risk in children aged <16 years in Côte d’Ivoire at high spatial resolution. Methods Using different data sources, a systematic review was carried out to compile and geo-reference survey data on Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence in Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on children aged <16 years. The period from 1988 to 2007 was covered. A suite of Bayesian geo-statistical logistic regression models was fitted to analyse malaria risk. Non-spatial models with and without exchangeable random effect parameters were compared to stationary and non-stationary spatial models. Non-stationarity was modelled assuming that the underlying spatial process is a mixture of separate stationary processes in each ecological zone. The best fitting model based on the deviance information criterion was used to predict Plasmodium spp. infection risk for entire Côte d’Ivoire, including uncertainty. Results Overall, 235 data points at 170 unique survey locations with malaria prevalence data for individuals aged <16 years were extracted. Most data points (n = 182, 77.4%) were collected between 2000 and 2007. A Bayesian non-stationary regression model showed the best fit with annualized rainfall and maximum land surface temperature identified as significant environmental covariates. This model was used to predict malaria infection risk at non-sampled locations. High-risk areas were mainly found in the north-central and western area, while relatively low-risk areas were located in the north at the country border, in the north-east, in the south-east around Abidjan, and in the central-west between two high prevalence areas. Conclusion The malaria risk map at high spatial resolution gives an important overview of the geographical distribution of the disease in Côte d’Ivoire. It is a useful tool for the national malaria control programme and can be utilized for spatial targeting of control interventions and rational resource allocation. PMID:22571469

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip

2010-01-01

A study is in-process to develop a multivariable parametric cost model for space telescopes. Cost and engineering parametric data has been collected on 30 different space telescopes. Statistical correlations have been developed between 19 variables of 59 variables sampled. Single Variable and Multi-Variable Cost Estimating Relationships have been developed. Results are being published.

Prior robust empirical Bayes inference for large-scale data by conditioning on rank with application to microarray data

PubMed Central

Liao, J. G.; Mcmurry, Timothy; Berg, Arthur

2014-01-01

Empirical Bayes methods have been extensively used for microarray data analysis by modeling the large number of unknown parameters as random effects. Empirical Bayes allows borrowing information across genes and can automatically adjust for multiple testing and selection bias. However, the standard empirical Bayes model can perform poorly if the assumed working prior deviates from the true prior. This paper proposes a new rank-conditioned inference in which the shrinkage and confidence intervals are based on the distribution of the error conditioned on rank of the data. Our approach is in contrast to a Bayesian posterior, which conditions on the data themselves. The new method is almost as efficient as standard Bayesian methods when the working prior is close to the true prior, and it is much more robust when the working prior is not close. In addition, it allows a more accurate (but also more complex) non-parametric estimate of the prior to be easily incorporated, resulting in improved inference. The new method’s prior robustness is demonstrated via simulation experiments. Application to a breast cancer gene expression microarray dataset is presented. Our R package rank.Shrinkage provides a ready-to-use implementation of the proposed methodology. PMID:23934072

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research. PMID:26579002

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research.

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to adaptive vision testing: A case study with the contrast sensitivity function.

PubMed

Gu, Hairong; Kim, Woojae; Hou, Fang; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Pitt, Mark A; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I

2016-01-01

Measurement efficiency is of concern when a large number of observations are required to obtain reliable estimates for parametric models of vision. The standard entropy-based Bayesian adaptive testing procedures addressed the issue by selecting the most informative stimulus in sequential experimental trials. Noninformative, diffuse priors were commonly used in those tests. Hierarchical adaptive design optimization (HADO; Kim, Pitt, Lu, Steyvers, & Myung, 2014) further improves the efficiency of the standard Bayesian adaptive testing procedures by constructing an informative prior using data from observers who have already participated in the experiment. The present study represents an empirical validation of HADO in estimating the human contrast sensitivity function. The results show that HADO significantly improves the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates, and therefore requires many fewer observations to obtain reliable inference about contrast sensitivity, compared to the method of quick contrast sensitivity function (Lesmes, Lu, Baek, & Albright, 2010), which uses the standard Bayesian procedure. The improvement with HADO was maintained even when the prior was constructed from heterogeneous populations or a relatively small number of observers. These results of this case study support the conclusion that HADO can be used in Bayesian adaptive testing by replacing noninformative, diffuse priors with statistically justified informative priors without introducing unwanted bias.

Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2012-03-01

In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to adaptive vision testing: A case study with the contrast sensitivity function

PubMed Central

Gu, Hairong; Kim, Woojae; Hou, Fang; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Pitt, Mark A.; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I.

2016-01-01

Measurement efficiency is of concern when a large number of observations are required to obtain reliable estimates for parametric models of vision. The standard entropy-based Bayesian adaptive testing procedures addressed the issue by selecting the most informative stimulus in sequential experimental trials. Noninformative, diffuse priors were commonly used in those tests. Hierarchical adaptive design optimization (HADO; Kim, Pitt, Lu, Steyvers, & Myung, 2014) further improves the efficiency of the standard Bayesian adaptive testing procedures by constructing an informative prior using data from observers who have already participated in the experiment. The present study represents an empirical validation of HADO in estimating the human contrast sensitivity function. The results show that HADO significantly improves the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates, and therefore requires many fewer observations to obtain reliable inference about contrast sensitivity, compared to the method of quick contrast sensitivity function (Lesmes, Lu, Baek, & Albright, 2010), which uses the standard Bayesian procedure. The improvement with HADO was maintained even when the prior was constructed from heterogeneous populations or a relatively small number of observers. These results of this case study support the conclusion that HADO can be used in Bayesian adaptive testing by replacing noninformative, diffuse priors with statistically justified informative priors without introducing unwanted bias. PMID:27105061

A fully automatic tool to perform accurate flood mapping by merging remote sensing imagery and ancillary data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco; Pasquariello, Guido

2016-04-01

Flooding is one of the most frequent and expansive natural hazard. High-resolution flood mapping is an essential step in the monitoring and prevention of inundation hazard, both to gain insight into the processes involved in the generation of flooding events, and from the practical point of view of the precise assessment of inundated areas. Remote sensing data are recognized to be useful in this respect, thanks to the high resolution and regular revisit schedules of state-of-the-art satellites, moreover offering a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding. In particular, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data present several favorable characteristics for flood mapping, such as their relative insensitivity to the meteorological conditions during acquisitions, as well as the possibility of acquiring independently of solar illumination, thanks to the active nature of the radar sensors [1]. However, flood scenarios are typical examples of complex situations in which different factors have to be considered to provide accurate and robust interpretation of the situation on the ground: the presence of many land cover types, each one with a particular signature in presence of flood, requires modelling the behavior of different objects in the scene in order to associate them to flood or no flood conditions [2]. Generally, the fusion of multi-temporal, multi-sensor, multi-resolution and/or multi-platform Earth observation image data, together with other ancillary information, seems to have a key role in the pursuit of a consistent interpretation of complex scenes. In the case of flooding, distance from the river, terrain elevation, hydrologic information or some combination thereof can add useful information to remote sensing data. Suitable methods, able to manage and merge different kind of data, are so particularly needed. In this work, a fully automatic tool, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) [3] and able to perform data fusion, is presented. It supplies flood maps describing the dynamics of each analysed event, combining time series of images, acquired by different sensors, with ancillary information. Some experiments have been performed by combining multi-temporal SAR intensity images, InSAR coherence and optical data, with geomorphic and other ground information. The tool has been tested on different flood events occurred in the Basilicata region (Italy) during the last years, showing good capabilities of identification of a large area interested by the flood phenomenon, partially overcoming the obstacle constituted by the presence of scattering/coherence classes corresponding to different land cover types, which respond differently to the presence of water and to inundation evolution [1] A. Refice et al, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, vol. 7, no. 7, pp. 2711-2722, 2014. [2] L. Pulvirenti et al., IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., Vol. PP, pp. 1- 13, 2015. [3] A. D'Addabbo et al., "A Bayesian Network for Flood Detection combining SAR Imagery and Ancillary Data," IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., in press.

Brain segmentation and the generation of cortical surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, M.; Cui, J.; Doolittle, K.; Joshi, S.; Van Essen, D.; Wang, L.; Miller, M. I.

1999-01-01

This paper describes methods for white matter segmentation in brain images and the generation of cortical surfaces from the segmentations. We have developed a system that allows a user to start with a brain volume, obtained by modalities such as MRI or cryosection, and constructs a complete digital representation of the cortical surface. The methodology consists of three basic components: local parametric modeling and Bayesian segmentation; surface generation and local quadratic coordinate fitting; and surface editing. Segmentations are computed by parametrically fitting known density functions to the histogram of the image using the expectation maximization algorithm [DLR77]. The parametric fits are obtained locally rather than globally over the whole volume to overcome local variations in gray levels. To represent the boundary of the gray and white matter we use triangulated meshes generated using isosurface generation algorithms [GH95]. A complete system of local parametric quadratic charts [JWM+95] is superimposed on the triangulated graph to facilitate smoothing and geodesic curve tracking. Algorithms for surface editing include extraction of the largest closed surface. Results for several macaque brains are presented comparing automated and hand surface generation. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Improving the Diagnostic Specificity of CT for Early Detection of Lung Cancer: 4D CT-Based Pulmonary Nodule Elastometry

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

2012, patients who received stereotactic ablative radiotherapy ( SABR ) for early stage non-small cell lung cancer were included in this study. All...comparing the elasticities of malignant PNs treated with stereotactic ablative radiotherapy ( SABR ) with those of the lung. Methods: We analyzed...breath-hold images of 30 patients with malignant PNs who underwent SABR in our department. A parametric nonrigid transformation model based on multi

Multiscale Informatics for Low-Temperature Propane Oxidation: Further Complexities in Studies of Complex Reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burke, Michael P.; Goldsmith, C. Franklin; Klippenstein, Stephen J.

2015-07-16

We have developed a multi-scale approach (Burke, M. P.; Klippenstein, S. J.; Harding, L. B. Proc. Combust. Inst. 2013, 34, 547–555.) to kinetic model formulation that directly incorporates elementary kinetic theories as a means to provide reliable, physics-based extrapolation to unexplored conditions. Here, we extend and generalize the multi-scale modeling strategy to treat systems of considerable complexity – involving multi-well reactions, potentially missing reactions, non-statistical product branching ratios, and non-Boltzmann (i.e. non-thermal) reactant distributions. The methodology is demonstrated here for a subsystem of low-temperature propane oxidation, as a representative system for low-temperature fuel oxidation. A multi-scale model is assembled andmore » informed by a wide variety of targets that include ab initio calculations of molecular properties, rate constant measurements of isolated reactions, and complex systems measurements. Active model parameters are chosen to accommodate both “parametric” and “structural” uncertainties. Theoretical parameters (e.g. barrier heights) are included as active model parameters to account for parametric uncertainties in the theoretical treatment; experimental parameters (e.g. initial temperatures) are included to account for parametric uncertainties in the physical models of the experiments. RMG software is used to assess potential structural uncertainties due to missing reactions. Additionally, branching ratios among product channels are included as active model parameters to account for structural uncertainties related to difficulties in modeling sequences of multiple chemically activated steps. The approach is demonstrated here for interpreting time-resolved measurements of OH, HO2, n-propyl, i-propyl, propene, oxetane, and methyloxirane from photolysis-initiated low-temperature oxidation of propane at pressures from 4 to 60 Torr and temperatures from 300 to 700 K. In particular, the multi-scale informed model provides a consistent quantitative explanation of both ab initio calculations and time-resolved species measurements. The present results show that interpretations of OH measurements are significantly more complicated than previously thought – in addition to barrier heights for key transition states considered previously, OH profiles also depend on additional theoretical parameters for R + O2 reactions, secondary reactions, QOOH + O2 reactions, and treatment of non-Boltzmann reaction sequences. Extraction of physically rigorous information from those measurements may require more sophisticated treatment of all of those model aspects, as well as additional experimental data under more conditions, to discriminate among possible interpretations and ensure model reliability. Keywords: Optimization, Uncertainty quantification, Chemical mechanism, Low-Temperature Oxidation, Non-Boltzmann« less

Stochastic climate dynamics: Stochastic parametrizations and their global effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, Michael

2010-05-01

A well-known difficulty in modeling the atmosphere and oceans' general circulation is the limited, albeit increasing resolution possible in the numerical solution of the governing partial differential equations. While the mass, energy and momentum of an individual cloud, in the atmosphere, or convection chimney, in the oceans, is negligible, their combined effects over long times are not. Until recently, small, subgrid-scale processes were represented in general circulation models (GCMs) by deterministic "parametrizations." While A. Arakawa and associates had realized over three decades ago the conceptual need for ensembles of clouds in such parametrizations, it is only very recently that truly stochastic parametrizations have been introduced into GCMs and weather prediction models. These parametrizations essentially transform a deterministic autonomous system into a non-autonomous one, subject to random forcing. To study systematically the long-term effects of such a forcing has to rely on theory of random dynamical systems (RDS). This theory allows one to consider the detailed geometric structure of the random attractors associated with nonlinear, stochastically perturbed systems. These attractors extend the concept of strange attractors from autonomous dynamical systems to non-autonomous systems with random forcing. To illustrate the essence of the theory, its concepts and methods, we carry out a high-resolution numerical study of two "toy" models in their respective phase spaces. This study allows one to obtain a good approximation of their global random attractors, as well as of the time-dependent invariant measures supported by these attractors. The first of the two models studied herein is the Arnol'd family of circle maps in the presence of noise. The maps' fine-grained, resonant landscape --- associated with Arnol'd tongues --- is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting a comparison with the observable aspects of the "Devil's staircase" that arises in modeling the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are confirmed by studying a "French garden" that is obtained by smoothing a "Devil's quarry." Such a quarry results from coupling two circle maps, and random forcing leads to a smoothed version thereof. We thus suspect that stochastic parametrizations will stabilize the sensitive dependence on parameters that has been noticed in the development of GCMs. This talk represents joint work with Mickael D. Chekroun, D. Kondrashov, Eric Simonnet and I. Zaliapin. Several other talks and posters complement the results presented here and provide further insights into RDS theory and its application to the geosciences.

Multi-mode of Four and Six Wave Parametric Amplified Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Dayu; Yang, Yiheng; Zhang, Da; Liu, Ruizhou; Ma, Danmeng; Li, Changbiao; Zhang, Yanpeng

2017-03-01

Multiple quantum modes in correlated fields are essential for future quantum information processing and quantum computing. Here we report the generation of multi-mode phenomenon through parametric amplified four- and six-wave mixing processes in a rubidium atomic ensemble. The multi-mode properties in both frequency and spatial domains are studied. On one hand, the multi-mode behavior is dominantly controlled by the intensity of external dressing effect, or nonlinear phase shift through internal dressing effect, in frequency domain; on the other hand, the multi-mode behavior is visually demonstrated from the images of the biphoton fields directly, in spatial domain. Besides, the correlation of the two output fields is also demonstrated in both domains. Our approach supports efficient applications for scalable quantum correlated imaging.

Multi-mode of Four and Six Wave Parametric Amplified Process.

PubMed

Zhu, Dayu; Yang, Yiheng; Zhang, Da; Liu, Ruizhou; Ma, Danmeng; Li, Changbiao; Zhang, Yanpeng

2017-03-03

Multiple quantum modes in correlated fields are essential for future quantum information processing and quantum computing. Here we report the generation of multi-mode phenomenon through parametric amplified four- and six-wave mixing processes in a rubidium atomic ensemble. The multi-mode properties in both frequency and spatial domains are studied. On one hand, the multi-mode behavior is dominantly controlled by the intensity of external dressing effect, or nonlinear phase shift through internal dressing effect, in frequency domain; on the other hand, the multi-mode behavior is visually demonstrated from the images of the biphoton fields directly, in spatial domain. Besides, the correlation of the two output fields is also demonstrated in both domains. Our approach supports efficient applications for scalable quantum correlated imaging.

Diagnosis of combined faults in Rotary Machinery by Non-Naive Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asr, Mahsa Yazdanian; Ettefagh, Mir Mohammad; Hassannejad, Reza; Razavi, Seyed Naser

2017-02-01

When combined faults happen in different parts of the rotating machines, their features are profoundly dependent. Experts are completely familiar with individuals faults characteristics and enough data are available from single faults but the problem arises, when the faults combined and the separation of characteristics becomes complex. Therefore, the experts cannot declare exact information about the symptoms of combined fault and its quality. In this paper to overcome this drawback, a novel method is proposed. The core idea of the method is about declaring combined fault without using combined fault features as training data set and just individual fault features are applied in training step. For this purpose, after data acquisition and resampling the obtained vibration signals, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is utilized to decompose multi component signals to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). With the use of correlation coefficient, proper IMFs for feature extraction are selected. In feature extraction step, Shannon energy entropy of IMFs was extracted as well as statistical features. It is obvious that most of extracted features are strongly dependent. To consider this matter, Non-Naive Bayesian Classifier (NNBC) is appointed, which release the fundamental assumption of Naive Bayesian, i.e., the independence among features. To demonstrate the superiority of NNBC, other counterpart methods, include Normal Naive Bayesian classifier, Kernel Naive Bayesian classifier and Back Propagation Neural Networks were applied and the classification results are compared. An experimental vibration signals, collected from automobile gearbox, were used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. During the classification process, only the features, related individually to healthy state, bearing failure and gear failures, were assigned for training the classifier. But, combined fault features (combined gear and bearing failures) were examined as test data. The achieved probabilities for the test data show that the combined fault can be identified with high success rate.

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

2017-09-01

In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

[Non-contrast time-resolved magnetic resonance angiography combining high resolution multiple phase echo planar imaging based signal targeting and alternating radiofrequency contrast inherent inflow enhanced multi phase angiography combining spatial resolution echo planar imaging based signal targeting and alternating radiofrequency in intracranial arteries].

PubMed

Nakamura, Masanobu; Yoneyama, Masami; Tabuchi, Takashi; Takemura, Atsushi; Obara, Makoto; Sawano, Seishi

2012-01-01

Detailed information on anatomy and hemodynamics in cerebrovascular disorders such as AVM and Moyamoya disease is mandatory for defined diagnosis and treatment planning. Arterial spin labeling technique has come to be applied to magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and perfusion imaging in recent years. However, those non-contrast techniques are mostly limited to single frame images. Recently we have proposed a non-contrast time-resolved MRA technique termed contrast inherent inflow enhanced multi phase angiography combining spatial resolution echo planar imaging based signal targeting and alternating radiofrequency (CINEMA-STAR). CINEMA-STAR can extract the blood flow in the major intracranial arteries at an interval of 70 ms and thus permits us to observe vascular construction in full by preparing MIP images of axial acquisitions with high spatial resolution. This preliminary study demonstrates the usefulness of the CINEMA-STAR technique in evaluating the cerebral vasculature.

Robust Tracking of Small Displacements with a Bayesian Estimator

PubMed Central

Dumont, Douglas M.; Byram, Brett C.

2016-01-01

Radiation-force-based elasticity imaging describes a group of techniques that use acoustic radiation force (ARF) to displace tissue in order to obtain qualitative or quantitative measurements of tissue properties. Because ARF-induced displacements are on the order of micrometers, tracking these displacements in vivo can be challenging. Previously, it has been shown that Bayesian-based estimation can overcome some of the limitations of a traditional displacement estimator like normalized cross-correlation (NCC). In this work, we describe a Bayesian framework that combines a generalized Gaussian-Markov random field (GGMRF) prior with an automated method for selecting the prior’s width. We then evaluate its performance in the context of tracking the micrometer-order displacements encountered in an ARF-based method like acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging. The results show that bias, variance, and mean-square error performance vary with prior shape and width, and that an almost one order-of-magnitude reduction in mean-square error can be achieved by the estimator at the automatically-selected prior width. Lesion simulations show that the proposed estimator has a higher contrast-to-noise ratio but lower contrast than NCC, median-filtered NCC, and the previous Bayesian estimator, with a non-Gaussian prior shape having better lesion-edge resolution than a Gaussian prior. In vivo results from a cardiac, radiofrequency ablation ARFI imaging dataset show quantitative improvements in lesion contrast-to-noise ratio over NCC as well as the previous Bayesian estimator. PMID:26529761

Convergence and Divergence in a Multi-Model Ensemble of Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dungan, J. L.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.

2009-12-01

In support of NACP, we are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate uncertainties among ecosystem models, satellite datasets, and in-situ measurements. The models used in the experiment include public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. The reference datasets include MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Primary Production (NPP) products, Fluxnet measurements, and other observational data. The simulation results and the reference datasets are consistently processed and systematically compared in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space; in particular, an alternative to the Taylor diagram is developed to facilitate model-data intercomparisons in multi-dimensional space. The key findings of this study indicate that: the simulated GPP/NPP fluxes are in general agreement with observations over forests, but are biased low (underestimated) over non-forest types; large uncertainties of biomass and soil carbon stocks are found among the models (and reference datasets), often induced by seemingly “small” differences in model parameters and implementation details; the simulated Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) mainly responds to non-respiratory disturbances (e.g. fire) in the models and therefore is difficult to compare with flux data; and the seasonality and interannual variability of NEP varies significantly among models and reference datasets. These findings highlight the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes and emphasize the pressing necessity of expanded and enhanced monitoring systems to narrow critical structural and parametrical uncertainties among ecosystem models.

A multi-sensor data-driven methodology for all-sky passive microwave inundation retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takbiri, Zeinab; Ebtehaj, Ardeshir M.; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2017-06-01

We present a multi-sensor Bayesian passive microwave retrieval algorithm for flood inundation mapping at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The algorithm takes advantage of observations from multiple sensors in optical, short-infrared, and microwave bands, thereby allowing for detection and mapping of the sub-pixel fraction of inundated areas under almost all-sky conditions. The method relies on a nearest-neighbor search and a modern sparsity-promoting inversion method that make use of an a priori dataset in the form of two joint dictionaries. These dictionaries contain almost overlapping observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 satellite and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Aqua and Terra satellites. Evaluation of the retrieval algorithm over the Mekong Delta shows that it is capable of capturing to a good degree the inundation diurnal variability due to localized convective precipitation. At longer timescales, the results demonstrate consistency with the ground-based water level observations, denoting that the method is properly capturing inundation seasonal patterns in response to regional monsoonal rain. The calculated Euclidean distance, rank-correlation, and also copula quantile analysis demonstrate a good agreement between the outputs of the algorithm and the observed water levels at monthly and daily timescales. The current inundation products are at a resolution of 12.5 km and taken twice per day, but a higher resolution (order of 5 km and every 3 h) can be achieved using the same algorithm with the dictionary populated by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) products.

Spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral data with mutual information based segmented stacked autoencoder approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subir; Nagesh Kumar, D.

2018-04-01

Hyperspectral (HS) data comprises of continuous spectral responses of hundreds of narrow spectral bands with very fine spectral resolution or bandwidth, which offer feature identification and classification with high accuracy. In the present study, Mutual Information (MI) based Segmented Stacked Autoencoder (S-SAE) approach for spectral-spatial classification of the HS data is proposed to reduce the complexity and computational time compared to Stacked Autoencoder (SAE) based feature extraction. A non-parametric dependency measure (MI) based spectral segmentation is proposed instead of linear and parametric dependency measure to take care of both linear and nonlinear inter-band dependency for spectral segmentation of the HS bands. Then morphological profiles are created corresponding to segmented spectral features to assimilate the spatial information in the spectral-spatial classification approach. Two non-parametric classifiers, Support Vector Machine (SVM) with Gaussian kernel and Random Forest (RF) are used for classification of the three most popularly used HS datasets. Results of the numerical experiments carried out in this study have shown that SVM with a Gaussian kernel is providing better results for the Pavia University and Botswana datasets whereas RF is performing better for Indian Pines dataset. The experiments performed with the proposed methodology provide encouraging results compared to numerous existing approaches.

Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F

2017-08-01

Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the uncertainty in discharge data using hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings: a Bayesian method named BaRatin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Bonnifait, Laurent; Branger, Flora; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Horner, Ivan; Mansanarez, Valentin; Lang, Michel; Vigneau, Sylvain

2015-04-01

River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach (cf. Le Coz et al., 2014) to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. The rating curve uncertainties combine the parametric uncertainties and the remnant uncertainties that reflect the limited accuracy of the mathematical model used to simulate the physical stage-discharge relation. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.). An operational version of the BaRatin software and its graphical interface are made available free of charge on request to the authors. J. Le Coz, B. Renard, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud (2014). Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: a Bayesian approach, Journal of Hydrology, 509, 573-587.

Evaluation of the influence of dominance rules for the assembly line design problem under consideration of product design alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oesterle, Jonathan; Lionel, Amodeo

2018-06-01

The current competitive situation increases the importance of realistically estimating product costs during the early phases of product and assembly line planning projects. In this article, several multi-objective algorithms using difference dominance rules are proposed to solve the problem associated with the selection of the most effective combination of product and assembly lines. The list of developed algorithms includes variants of ant colony algorithms, evolutionary algorithms and imperialist competitive algorithms. The performance of each algorithm and dominance rule is analysed by five multi-objective quality indicators and fifty problem instances. The algorithms and dominance rules are ranked using a non-parametric statistical test.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 2: Sensitivity tests and results

PubMed Central

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2018-01-01

Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational–Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by better honouring inversion structures in the background state. PMID:29618848

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 2: Sensitivity Tests and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2016-01-01

Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by better honouring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 2: Sensitivity tests and results.

PubMed

Norris, Peter M; da Silva, Arlindo M

2016-07-01

Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by better honouring inversion structures in the background state.

Waveform inversion for orthorhombic anisotropy with P waves: feasibility and resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazei, Vladimir; Alkhalifah, Tariq

2018-05-01

Various parametrizations have been suggested to simplify inversions of first arrivals, or P waves, in orthorhombic anisotropic media, but the number and type of retrievable parameters have not been decisively determined. We show that only six parameters can be retrieved from the dynamic linearized inversion of P waves. These parameters are different from the six parameters needed to describe the kinematics of P waves. Reflection-based radiation patterns from the P-P scattered waves are remapped into the spectral domain to allow for our resolution analysis based on the effective angle of illumination concept. Singular value decomposition of the spectral sensitivities from various azimuths, offset coverage scenarios and data bandwidths allows us to quantify the resolution of different parametrizations, taking into account the signal-to-noise ratio in a given experiment. According to our singular value analysis, when the primary goal of inversion is determining the velocity of the P waves, gradually adding anisotropy of lower orders (isotropic, vertically transversally isotropic and orthorhombic) in hierarchical parametrization is the best choice. Hierarchical parametrization reduces the trade-off between the parameters and makes gradual introduction of lower anisotropy orders straightforward. When all the anisotropic parameters affecting P-wave propagation need to be retrieved simultaneously, the classic parametrization of orthorhombic medium with elastic stiffness matrix coefficients and density is a better choice for inversion. We provide estimates of the number and set of parameters that can be retrieved from surface seismic data in different acquisition scenarios. To set up an inversion process, the singular values determine the number of parameters that can be inverted and the resolution matrices from the parametrizations can be used to ascertain the set of parameters that can be resolved.

Bayesian resolution of TEM, CSEM and MT soundings: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blatter, D. B.; Ray, A.; Key, K.

2017-12-01

We examine the resolution of three electromagnetic exploration methods commonly used to map the electrical conductivity of the shallow crust - the magnetotelluric (MT) method, the controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) method and the transient electromagnetic (TEM) method. TEM and CSEM utilize an artificial source of EM energy, while MT makes use of natural variations in the Earth's electromagnetic field. For a given geological setting and acquisition parameters, each of these methods will have a different resolution due to differences in the source field polarization and the frequency range of the measurements. For example, the MT and TEM methods primarily rely on induced horizontal currents and are most sensitive to conductive layers while the CSEM method generates vertical loops of current and is more sensitive to resistive features. Our study seeks to provide a robust resolution comparison that can help inform exploration geophysicists about which technique is best suited for a particular target. While it is possible to understand and describe a difference in resolution qualitatively, it remains challenging to fully describe it quantitatively using optimization based approaches. Part of the difficulty here stems from the standard electromagnetic inversion toolkit, which makes heavy use of regularization (often in the form of smoothing) to constrain the non-uniqueness inherent in the inverse problem. This regularization makes it difficult to accurately estimate the uncertainty in estimated model parameters - and therefore obscures their true resolution. To overcome this difficulty, we compare the resolution of CSEM, airborne TEM, and MT data quantitatively using a Bayesian trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) inversion scheme. Noisy synthetic data for this study are computed from various representative 1D test models: a conductive anomaly under a conductive/resistive overburden; and a resistive anomaly under a conductive/resistive overburden. In addition to obtaining the full posterior probability density function of the model parameters, we develop a metric to more directly compare the resolution of each method as a function of depth.

Filtering high resolution hyperspectral imagery and analyzing it for quantification of water quality parameters and aquatic vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande-Chhetri, Roshan

High resolution hyperspectral imagery (airborne or ground-based) is gaining momentum as a useful analytical tool in various fields including agriculture and aquatic systems. These images are often contaminated with stripes and noise resulting in lower signal-to-noise ratio, especially in aquatic regions where signal is naturally low. This research investigates effective methods for filtering high spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery and use of the imagery in water quality parameter estimation and aquatic vegetation classification. The striping pattern of the hyperspectral imagery is non-parametric and difficult to filter. In this research, a de-striping algorithm based on wavelet analysis and adaptive Fourier domain normalization was examined. The result of this algorithm was found superior to other available algorithms and yielded highest Peak Signal to Noise Ratio improvement. The algorithm was implemented on individual image bands and on selected bands of the Maximum Noise Fraction (MNF) transformed images. The results showed that image filtering in the MNF domain was efficient and produced best results. The study investigated methods of analyzing hyperspectral imagery to estimate water quality parameters and to map aquatic vegetation in case-2 waters. Ground-based hyperspectral imagery was analyzed to determine chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in aquaculture ponds. Two-band and three-band indices were implemented and the effect of using submerged reflectance targets was evaluated. Laboratory measured values were found to be in strong correlation with two-band and three-band spectral indices computed from the hyperspectral image. Coefficients of determination (R2) values were found to be 0.833 and 0.862 without submerged targets and stronger values of 0.975 and 0.982 were obtained using submerged targets. Airborne hyperspectral images were used to detect and classify aquatic vegetation in a black river estuarine system. Image normalization for water surface reflectance and water depths was conducted and non-parametric classifiers such as ANN, SVM and SAM were tested and compared. Quality assessment indicated better classification and detection when non-parametric classifiers were applied to normalized or depth invariant transform images. Best classification accuracy of 73% was achieved when ANN is applied on normalized image and best detection accuracy of around 92% was obtained when SVM or SAM was applied on depth invariant images.

Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2015-05-01

Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Bayes theorem to correct size-specific sampling bias in growth data.

PubMed

Troynikov, V S

1999-03-01

The bayesian decomposition of posterior distribution was used to develop a likelihood function to correct bias in the estimates of population parameters from data collected randomly with size-specific selectivity. Positive distributions with time as a parameter were used for parametrization of growth data. Numerical illustrations are provided. The alternative applications of the likelihood to estimate selectivity parameters are discussed.

Ultrafast optical transistor and router of multi-order fluorescence and spontaneous parametric four-wave mixing in Pr³⁺:YSO.

PubMed

Wen, Feng; Ali, Imran; Hasan, Abdulkhaleq; Li, Changbiao; Tang, Haijun; Zhang, Yufei; Zhang, Yanpeng

2015-10-15

We study the realization of an optical transistor (switch and amplifier) and router in multi-order fluorescence (FL) and spontaneous parametric four-wave mixing (SP-FWM). We estimate that the switching speed is about 15 ns. The router action results from the Autler-Townes splitting in spectral or time domain. The switch and amplifier are realized by dressing suppression and enhancement in FL and SP-FWM. The optical transistor and router can be controlled by multi-parameters (i.e., power, detuning, or polarization).

The efficiency of average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling in identifying homogeneous precipitation catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuan, Zun Liang; Ismail, Noriszura; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Lit Ken, Tan; Fam, Soo-Fen; Senawi, Azlyna; Yusoff, Wan Nur Syahidah Wan

2018-04-01

Due to the limited of historical precipitation records, agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms widely used to extrapolate information from gauged to ungauged precipitation catchments in yielding a more reliable projection of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as extreme precipitation events. However, identifying the optimum number of homogeneous precipitation catchments accurately based on the dendrogram resulted using agglomerative hierarchical algorithms are very subjective. The main objective of this study is to propose an efficient regionalized algorithm to identify the homogeneous precipitation catchments for non-stationary precipitation time series. The homogeneous precipitation catchments are identified using average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling, while uncentered correlation coefficient as the similarity measure. The regionalized homogeneous precipitation is consolidated using K-sample Anderson Darling non-parametric test. The analysis result shows the proposed regionalized algorithm performed more better compared to the proposed agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm in previous studies.

BaTMAn: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, J.; Ascasibar, Y.; García-Benito, R.; Guidi, G.; Choudhury, O. S.; Bellocchi, E.; Sánchez, S. F.; Díaz, A. I.

2016-12-01

Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BaTMAn) characterizes any astronomical dataset containing spatial information and performs a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm iteratively merges spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (i.e. identical signal within the errors). The output segmentations successfully adapt to the underlying spatial structure, regardless of its morphology and/or the statistical properties of the noise. BaTMAn identifies (and keeps) all the statistically-significant information contained in the input multi-image (e.g. an IFS datacube). The main aim of the algorithm is to characterize spatially-resolved data prior to their analysis.

A FAST BAYESIAN METHOD FOR UPDATING AND FORECASTING HOURLY OZONE LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows...

QUEST+: A general multidimensional Bayesian adaptive psychometric method.

PubMed

Watson, Andrew B

2017-03-01

QUEST+ is a Bayesian adaptive psychometric testing method that allows an arbitrary number of stimulus dimensions, psychometric function parameters, and trial outcomes. It is a generalization and extension of the original QUEST procedure and incorporates many subsequent developments in the area of parametric adaptive testing. With a single procedure, it is possible to implement a wide variety of experimental designs, including conventional threshold measurement; measurement of psychometric function parameters, such as slope and lapse; estimation of the contrast sensitivity function; measurement of increment threshold functions; measurement of noise-masking functions; Thurstone scale estimation using pair comparisons; and categorical ratings on linear and circular stimulus dimensions. QUEST+ provides a general method to accelerate data collection in many areas of cognitive and perceptual science.

Patterns of postictal cerebral perfusion in idiopathic generalized epilepsy: a multi-delay multi-parametric arterial spin labelling perfusion MRI study.

PubMed

Chen, Guangxiang; Lei, Du; Ren, Jiechuan; Zuo, Panli; Suo, Xueling; Wang, Danny J J; Wang, Meiyun; Zhou, Dong; Gong, Qiyong

2016-07-04

The cerebral haemodynamic status of idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) is a very complicated process. Little attention has been paid to cerebral blood flow (CBF) alterations in IGE detected by arterial spin labelling (ASL) perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the selection of an optimal delay time is difficult for single-delay ASL. Multi-delay multi-parametric ASL perfusion MRI overcomes the limitations of single-delay ASL. We applied multi-delay multi-parametric ASL perfusion MRI to investigate the patterns of postictal cerebral perfusion in IGE patients with absence seizures. A total of 21 IGE patients with absence seizures and 24 healthy control subjects were enrolled. IGE patients exhibited prolonged arterial transit time (ATT) in the left superior temporal gyrus. The mean CBF of IGE patients was significantly increased in the left middle temporal gyrus, left parahippocampal gyrus and left fusiform gyrus. Prolonged ATT in the left superior temporal gyrus was negatively correlated with the age at onset in IGE patients. This study demonstrated that cortical dysfunction in the temporal lobe and fusiform gyrus may be related to epileptic activity in IGE patients with absence seizures. This information can play an important role in elucidating the pathophysiological mechanism of IGE from a cerebral haemodynamic perspective.

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parussini, L.; Venturi, D., E-mail: venturi@ucsc.edu; Perdikaris, P.

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgersmore » equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.« less

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

A Multi-resolution, Multi-epoch Low Radio Frequency Survey of the Kepler K2 Mission Campaign 1 Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingay, S. J.; Hancock, P. J.; Wayth, R. B.; Intema, H.; Jagannathan, P.; Mooley, K.

2016-10-01

We present the first dedicated radio continuum survey of a Kepler K2 mission field, Field 1, covering the North Galactic Cap. The survey is wide field, contemporaneous, multi-epoch, and multi-resolution in nature and was conducted at low radio frequencies between 140 and 200 MHz. The multi-epoch and ultra wide field (but relatively low resolution) part of the survey was provided by 15 nights of observation using the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) over a period of approximately a month, contemporaneous with K2 observations of the field. The multi-resolution aspect of the survey was provided by the low resolution (4‧) MWA imaging, complemented by non-contemporaneous but much higher resolution (20″) observations using the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT). The survey is, therefore, sensitive to the details of radio structures across a wide range of angular scales. Consistent with other recent low radio frequency surveys, no significant radio transients or variables were detected in the survey. The resulting source catalogs consist of 1085 and 1468 detections in the two MWA observation bands (centered at 154 and 185 MHz, respectively) and 7445 detections in the GMRT observation band (centered at 148 MHz), over 314 square degrees. The survey is presented as a significant resource for multi-wavelength investigations of the more than 21,000 target objects in the K2 field. We briefly examine our survey data against K2 target lists for dwarf star types (stellar types M and L) that have been known to produce radio flares.

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

PubMed Central

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

2015-01-01

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity, better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04250.001 PMID:25928186

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

DOE PAGES

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

2015-04-30

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity,more » better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.« less

Inference in the age of big data: Future perspectives on neuroscience.

PubMed

Bzdok, Danilo; Yeo, B T Thomas

2017-07-15

Neuroscience is undergoing faster changes than ever before. Over 100 years our field qualitatively described and invasively manipulated single or few organisms to gain anatomical, physiological, and pharmacological insights. In the last 10 years neuroscience spawned quantitative datasets of unprecedented breadth (e.g., microanatomy, synaptic connections, and optogenetic brain-behavior assays) and size (e.g., cognition, brain imaging, and genetics). While growing data availability and information granularity have been amply discussed, we direct attention to a less explored question: How will the unprecedented data richness shape data analysis practices? Statistical reasoning is becoming more important to distill neurobiological knowledge from healthy and pathological brain measurements. We argue that large-scale data analysis will use more statistical models that are non-parametric, generative, and mixing frequentist and Bayesian aspects, while supplementing classical hypothesis testing with out-of-sample predictions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity,more » better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.« less

Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Masaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Miyamoto, Yoshiaki; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Nakano, Masuo; Kodama, Chihiro; Noda, Akira T.; Nasuno, Tomoe; Yamada, Yohei; Fukutomi, Yoshiki

2017-12-01

This article reviews the major outcomes of a 5-year (2011-2016) project using the K computer to perform global numerical atmospheric simulations based on the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM). The K computer was made available to the public in September 2012 and was used as a primary resource for Japan's Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE), an initiative to investigate five strategic research areas; the NICAM project fell under the research area of climate and weather simulation sciences. Combining NICAM with high-performance computing has created new opportunities in three areas of research: (1) higher resolution global simulations that produce more realistic representations of convective systems, (2) multi-member ensemble simulations that are able to perform extended-range forecasts 10-30 days in advance, and (3) multi-decadal simulations for climatology and variability. Before the K computer era, NICAM was used to demonstrate realistic simulations of intra-seasonal oscillations including the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), merely as a case study approach. Thanks to the big leap in computational performance of the K computer, we could greatly increase the number of cases of MJO events for numerical simulations, in addition to integrating time and horizontal resolution. We conclude that the high-resolution global non-hydrostatic model, as used in this five-year project, improves the ability to forecast intra-seasonal oscillations and associated tropical cyclogenesis compared with that of the relatively coarser operational models currently in use. The impacts of the sub-kilometer resolution simulation and the multi-decadal simulations using NICAM are also reviewed.

Multiple Signal Classification for Gravitational Wave Burst Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Junwei; He, Zhengqi

2013-01-01

This work is mainly focused on the application of the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm for gravitational wave burst search. This algorithm extracts important gravitational wave characteristics from signals coming from detectors with arbitrary position, orientation and noise covariance. In this paper, the MUSIC algorithm is described in detail along with the necessary adjustments required for gravitational wave burst search. The algorithm's performance is measured using simulated signals and noise. MUSIC is compared with the Q-transform for signal triggering and with Bayesian analysis for direction of arrival (DOA) estimation, using the Ω-pipeline. Experimental results show that MUSIC has a lower resolution but is faster. MUSIC is a promising tool for real-time gravitational wave search for multi-messenger astronomy.

Parameter Estimation with Entangled Photons Produced by Parametric Down-Conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cable, Hugo; Durkin, Gabriel A.

2010-01-01

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

Parameter estimation with entangled photons produced by parametric down-conversion.

PubMed

Cable, Hugo; Durkin, Gabriel A

2010-07-02

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

A Sparse Bayesian Approach for Forward-Looking Superresolution Radar Imaging

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yin; Zhang, Yongchao; Huang, Yulin; Yang, Jianyu

2017-01-01

This paper presents a sparse superresolution approach for high cross-range resolution imaging of forward-looking scanning radar based on the Bayesian criterion. First, a novel forward-looking signal model is established as the product of the measurement matrix and the cross-range target distribution, which is more accurate than the conventional convolution model. Then, based on the Bayesian criterion, the widely-used sparse regularization is considered as the penalty term to recover the target distribution. The derivation of the cost function is described, and finally, an iterative expression for minimizing this function is presented. Alternatively, this paper discusses how to estimate the single parameter of Gaussian noise. With the advantage of a more accurate model, the proposed sparse Bayesian approach enjoys a lower model error. Meanwhile, when compared with the conventional superresolution methods, the proposed approach shows high cross-range resolution and small location error. The superresolution results for the simulated point target, scene data, and real measured data are presented to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach. PMID:28604583

Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks

PubMed Central

Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C.

2018-01-01

The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep. PMID:29641599

Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Yetton, Benjamin D; McDevitt, Elizabeth A; Cellini, Nicola; Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C

2018-01-01

The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep.

A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

Trans-dimensional inversion of microtremor array dispersion data with hierarchical autoregressive error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmer, Jan; Molnar, Sheri; Steininger, Gavin; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.

2012-02-01

This paper applies a general trans-dimensional Bayesian inference methodology and hierarchical autoregressive data-error models to the inversion of microtremor array dispersion data for shear wave velocity (vs) structure. This approach accounts for the limited knowledge of the optimal earth model parametrization (e.g. the number of layers in the vs profile) and of the data-error statistics in the resulting vs parameter uncertainty estimates. The assumed earth model parametrization influences estimates of parameter values and uncertainties due to different parametrizations leading to different ranges of data predictions. The support of the data for a particular model is often non-unique and several parametrizations may be supported. A trans-dimensional formulation accounts for this non-uniqueness by including a model-indexing parameter as an unknown so that groups of models (identified by the indexing parameter) are considered in the results. The earth model is parametrized in terms of a partition model with interfaces given over a depth-range of interest. In this work, the number of interfaces (layers) in the partition model represents the trans-dimensional model indexing. In addition, serial data-error correlations are addressed by augmenting the geophysical forward model with a hierarchical autoregressive error model that can account for a wide range of error processes with a small number of parameters. Hence, the limited knowledge about the true statistical distribution of data errors is also accounted for in the earth model parameter estimates, resulting in more realistic uncertainties and parameter values. Hierarchical autoregressive error models do not rely on point estimates of the model vector to estimate data-error statistics, and have no requirement for computing the inverse or determinant of a data-error covariance matrix. This approach is particularly useful for trans-dimensional inverse problems, as point estimates may not be representative of the state space that spans multiple subspaces of different dimensionalities. The order of the autoregressive process required to fit the data is determined here by posterior residual-sample examination and statistical tests. Inference for earth model parameters is carried out on the trans-dimensional posterior probability distribution by considering ensembles of parameter vectors. In particular, vs uncertainty estimates are obtained by marginalizing the trans-dimensional posterior distribution in terms of vs-profile marginal distributions. The methodology is applied to microtremor array dispersion data collected at two sites with significantly different geology in British Columbia, Canada. At both sites, results show excellent agreement with estimates from invasive measurements.

Comparison of unsupervised classification methods for brain tumor segmentation using multi-parametric MRI.

PubMed

Sauwen, N; Acou, M; Van Cauter, S; Sima, D M; Veraart, J; Maes, F; Himmelreich, U; Achten, E; Van Huffel, S

2016-01-01

Tumor segmentation is a particularly challenging task in high-grade gliomas (HGGs), as they are among the most heterogeneous tumors in oncology. An accurate delineation of the lesion and its main subcomponents contributes to optimal treatment planning, prognosis and follow-up. Conventional MRI (cMRI) is the imaging modality of choice for manual segmentation, and is also considered in the vast majority of automated segmentation studies. Advanced MRI modalities such as perfusion-weighted imaging (PWI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) have already shown their added value in tumor tissue characterization, hence there have been recent suggestions of combining different MRI modalities into a multi-parametric MRI (MP-MRI) approach for brain tumor segmentation. In this paper, we compare the performance of several unsupervised classification methods for HGG segmentation based on MP-MRI data including cMRI, DWI, MRSI and PWI. Two independent MP-MRI datasets with a different acquisition protocol were available from different hospitals. We demonstrate that a hierarchical non-negative matrix factorization variant which was previously introduced for MP-MRI tumor segmentation gives the best performance in terms of mean Dice-scores for the pathologic tissue classes on both datasets.

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Rapid Non-Gaussian Uncertainty Quantification of Seismic Velocity Models and Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, G.; Malcolm, A. E.; Poliannikov, O. V.

2017-12-01

Conventional seismic imaging typically provides a single estimate of the subsurface without any error bounds. Noise in the observed raw traces as well as the uncertainty of the velocity model directly impact the uncertainty of the final seismic image and its resulting interpretation. We present a Bayesian inference framework to quantify uncertainty in both the velocity model and seismic images, given noise statistics of the observed data.To estimate velocity model uncertainty, we combine the field expansion method, a fast frequency domain wave equation solver, with the adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The speed of the field expansion method and its reduced parameterization allows us to perform the tens or hundreds of thousands of forward solves needed for non-parametric posterior estimations. We then migrate the observed data with the distribution of velocity models to generate uncertainty estimates of the resulting subsurface image. This procedure allows us to create both qualitative descriptions of seismic image uncertainty and put error bounds on quantities of interest such as the dip angle of a subduction slab or thickness of a stratigraphic layer.

Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

PubMed

Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

2012-12-01

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced Imaging Methods for Long-Baseline Optical Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Besnerais, G.; Lacour, S.; Mugnier, L. M.; Thiebaut, E.; Perrin, G.; Meimon, S.

2008-11-01

We address the data processing methods needed for imaging with a long baseline optical interferometer. We first describe parametric reconstruction approaches and adopt a general formulation of nonparametric image reconstruction as the solution of a constrained optimization problem. Within this framework, we present two recent reconstruction methods, Mira and Wisard, representative of the two generic approaches for dealing with the missing phase information. Mira is based on an implicit approach and a direct optimization of a Bayesian criterion while Wisard adopts a self-calibration approach and an alternate minimization scheme inspired from radio-astronomy. Both methods can handle various regularization criteria. We review commonly used regularization terms and introduce an original quadratic regularization called ldquosoft support constraintrdquo that favors the object compactness. It yields images of quality comparable to nonquadratic regularizations on the synthetic data we have processed. We then perform image reconstructions, both parametric and nonparametric, on astronomical data from the IOTA interferometer, and discuss the respective roles of parametric and nonparametric approaches for optical interferometric imaging.

Semiparametric regression during 2003–2007*

PubMed Central

Ruppert, David; Wand, M.P.; Carroll, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Semiparametric regression is a fusion between parametric regression and nonparametric regression that integrates low-rank penalized splines, mixed model and hierarchical Bayesian methodology – thus allowing more streamlined handling of longitudinal and spatial correlation. We review progress in the field over the five-year period between 2003 and 2007. We find semiparametric regression to be a vibrant field with substantial involvement and activity, continual enhancement and widespread application. PMID:20305800

Possible determinants and spatial patterns of anaemia among young children in Nigeria: a Bayesian semi-parametric modelling.

PubMed

Gayawan, Ezra; Arogundade, Ekundayo D; Adebayo, Samson B

2014-03-01

Anaemia is a global public health problem affecting both developing and developed countries with major consequences for human health and socioeconomic development. This paper examines the possible relationship between Hb concentration and severity of anaemia with individual and household characteristics of children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria; and explores possible geographical variations of these outcome variables. Data on Hb concentration and severity of anaemia in children aged 6-59 months that participated in the 2010 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey were analysed. A semi-parametric model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach was adopted to examine the putative relationship of covariates of different types and possible spatial variation. Gaussian, binary and ordinal outcome variables were considered in modelling. Spatial analyses reveal a distinct North-South divide in Hb concentration of the children analysed and that states in Northern Nigeria possess a higher risk of anaemia. Other important risk factors include the household wealth index, sex of the child, whether or not the child had fever or malaria in the 2 weeks preceding the survey, and children under 24 months of age. There is a need for state level implementation of specific programmes that target vulnerable children as this can help in reversing the existing patterns.

Density-based empirical likelihood procedures for testing symmetry of data distributions and K-sample comparisons.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Tanajian, Hovig; Hutson, Alan D

In practice, parametric likelihood-ratio techniques are powerful statistical tools. In this article, we propose and examine novel and simple distribution-free test statistics that efficiently approximate parametric likelihood ratios to analyze and compare distributions of K groups of observations. Using the density-based empirical likelihood methodology, we develop a Stata package that applies to a test for symmetry of data distributions and compares K -sample distributions. Recognizing that recent statistical software packages do not sufficiently address K -sample nonparametric comparisons of data distributions, we propose a new Stata command, vxdbel, to execute exact density-based empirical likelihood-ratio tests using K samples. To calculate p -values of the proposed tests, we use the following methods: 1) a classical technique based on Monte Carlo p -value evaluations; 2) an interpolation technique based on tabulated critical values; and 3) a new hybrid technique that combines methods 1 and 2. The third, cutting-edge method is shown to be very efficient in the context of exact-test p -value computations. This Bayesian-type method considers tabulated critical values as prior information and Monte Carlo generations of test statistic values as data used to depict the likelihood function. In this case, a nonparametric Bayesian method is proposed to compute critical values of exact tests.

Non-Bayesian Optical Inference Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadar, Ivan; Eichmann, George

1987-01-01

In a recent paper, Eichmann and Caulfield) presented a preliminary exposition of optical learning machines suited for use in expert systems. In this paper, we extend the previous ideas by introducing learning as a means of reinforcement by information gathering and reasoning with uncertainty in a non-Bayesian framework2. More specifically, the non-Bayesian approach allows the representation of total ignorance (not knowing) as opposed to assuming equally likely prior distributions.

Non-periodic multi-slit masking for a single counter rotating 2-disc chopper and channeling guides for high resolution and high intensity neutron TOF spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartkowiak, M.; Hofmann, T.; Stüßer, N.

2017-02-01

Energy resolution is an important design goal for time-of-flight instruments and neutron spectroscopy. For high-resolution applications, it is required that the burst times of choppers be short, going down to the μs-range. To produce short pulses while maintaining high neutron flux, we propose beam masks with more than two slits on a counter-rotating 2-disc chopper, behind specially adapted focusing multi-channel guides. A novel non-regular arrangement of the slits ensures that the beam opens only once per chopper cycle, when the masks are congruently aligned. Additionally, beam splitting and intensity focusing by guides before and after the chopper position provide high intensities even for small samples. Phase-space analysis and Monte Carlo simulations on examples of four-slit masks with adapted guide geometries show the potential of the proposed setup.

Global, Multi-Objective Trajectory Optimization With Parametric Spreading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vavrina, Matthew A.; Englander, Jacob A.; Phillips, Sean M.; Hughes, Kyle M.

2017-01-01

Mission design problems are often characterized by multiple, competing trajectory optimization objectives. Recent multi-objective trajectory optimization formulations enable generation of globally-optimal, Pareto solutions via a multi-objective genetic algorithm. A byproduct of these formulations is that clustering in design space can occur in evolving the population towards the Pareto front. This clustering can be a drawback, however, if parametric evaluations of design variables are desired. This effort addresses clustering by incorporating operators that encourage a uniform spread over specified design variables while maintaining Pareto front representation. The algorithm is demonstrated on a Neptune orbiter mission, and enhanced multidimensional visualization strategies are presented.

Detecting oscillatory patterns and time lags from proxy records with non-uniform sampling: Some pitfalls and possible solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Reik

2013-04-01

Time series analysis offers a rich toolbox for deciphering information from high-resolution geological and geomorphological archives and linking the thus obtained results to distinct climate and environmental processes. Specifically, on various time-scales from inter-annual to multi-millenial, underlying driving forces exhibit more or less periodic oscillations, the detection of which in proxy records often allows linking them to specific mechanisms by which the corresponding drivers may have affected the archive under study. A persistent problem in geomorphology is that available records do not present a clear signal of the variability of environmental conditions, but exhibit considerable uncertainties of both the measured proxy variables and the associated age model. Particularly, time-scale uncertainty as well as the heterogeneity of sampling in the time domain are source of severe conceptual problems that may lead to false conclusions about the presence or absence of oscillatory patterns and their mutual phasing in different archives. In my presentation, I will discuss how one can cope with non-uniformly sampled proxy records to detect and quantify oscillatory patterns in one or more data sets. For this purpose, correlation analysis is reformulated using kernel estimates which are found superior to classical estimators based on interpolation or Fourier transform techniques. In order to characterize non-stationary or noisy periodicities and their relative phasing between different records, an extension of continuous wavelet transform is utilized. The performance of both methods is illustrated for different case studies. An extension to explicitly considering time-scale uncertainties by means of Bayesian techniques is briefly outlined.

Scene-based nonuniformity correction and enhancement: pixel statistics and subpixel motion.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenyi; Zhang, Chao

2008-07-01

We propose a framework for scene-based nonuniformity correction (NUC) and nonuniformity correction and enhancement (NUCE) that is required for focal-plane array-like sensors to obtain clean and enhanced-quality images. The core of the proposed framework is a novel registration-based nonuniformity correction super-resolution (NUCSR) method that is bootstrapped by statistical scene-based NUC methods. Based on a comprehensive imaging model and an accurate parametric motion estimation, we are able to remove severe/structured nonuniformity and in the presence of subpixel motion to simultaneously improve image resolution. One important feature of our NUCSR method is the adoption of a parametric motion model that allows us to (1) handle many practical scenarios where parametric motions are present and (2) carry out perfect super-resolution in principle by exploring available subpixel motions. Experiments with real data demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed NUCE framework and the effectiveness of the NUCSR method.

Rating locomotive crew diesel emission exposure profiles using statistics and Bayesian Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Hewett, Paul; Bullock, William H

2014-01-01

For more than 20 years CSX Transportation (CSXT) has collected exposure measurements from locomotive engineers and conductors who are potentially exposed to diesel emissions. The database included measurements for elemental and total carbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, aromatics, aldehydes, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide. This database was statistically analyzed and summarized, and the resulting statistics and exposure profiles were compared to relevant occupational exposure limits (OELs) using both parametric and non-parametric descriptive and compliance statistics. Exposure ratings, using the American Industrial Health Association (AIHA) exposure categorization scheme, were determined using both the compliance statistics and Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA). The statistical analysis of the elemental carbon data (a marker for diesel particulate) strongly suggests that the majority of levels in the cabs of the lead locomotives (n = 156) were less than the California guideline of 0.020 mg/m(3). The sample 95th percentile was roughly half the guideline; resulting in an AIHA exposure rating of category 2/3 (determined using BDA). The elemental carbon (EC) levels in the trailing locomotives tended to be greater than those in the lead locomotive; however, locomotive crews rarely ride in the trailing locomotive. Lead locomotive EC levels were similar to those reported by other investigators studying locomotive crew exposures and to levels measured in urban areas. Lastly, both the EC sample mean and 95%UCL were less than the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reference concentration of 0.005 mg/m(3). With the exception of nitrogen dioxide, the overwhelming majority of the measurements for total carbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, aromatics, aldehydes, and combustion gases in the cabs of CSXT locomotives were either non-detects or considerably less than the working OELs for the years represented in the database. When compared to the previous American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) threshold limit value (TLV) of 3 ppm the nitrogen dioxide exposure profile merits an exposure rating of AIHA exposure category 1. However, using the newly adopted TLV of 0.2 ppm the exposure profile receives an exposure rating of category 4. Further evaluation is recommended to determine the current status of nitrogen dioxide exposures. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene for the following free supplemental resource: additional text on OELs, methods, results, and additional figures and tables.].

Model inversion via multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization: a new paradigm for parameter estimation in haemodynamics, and beyond.

PubMed

Perdikaris, Paris; Karniadakis, George Em

2016-05-01

We present a computational framework for model inversion based on multi-fidelity information fusion and Bayesian optimization. The proposed methodology targets the accurate construction of response surfaces in parameter space, and the efficient pursuit to identify global optima while keeping the number of expensive function evaluations at a minimum. We train families of correlated surrogates on available data using Gaussian processes and auto-regressive stochastic schemes, and exploit the resulting predictive posterior distributions within a Bayesian optimization setting. This enables a smart adaptive sampling procedure that uses the predictive posterior variance to balance the exploration versus exploitation trade-off, and is a key enabler for practical computations under limited budgets. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on three parameter estimation problems. The first two involve the calibration of outflow boundary conditions of blood flow simulations in arterial bifurcations using multi-fidelity realizations of one- and three-dimensional models, whereas the last one aims to identify the forcing term that generated a particular solution to an elliptic partial differential equation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Model inversion via multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization: a new paradigm for parameter estimation in haemodynamics, and beyond

PubMed Central

Perdikaris, Paris; Karniadakis, George Em

2016-01-01

We present a computational framework for model inversion based on multi-fidelity information fusion and Bayesian optimization. The proposed methodology targets the accurate construction of response surfaces in parameter space, and the efficient pursuit to identify global optima while keeping the number of expensive function evaluations at a minimum. We train families of correlated surrogates on available data using Gaussian processes and auto-regressive stochastic schemes, and exploit the resulting predictive posterior distributions within a Bayesian optimization setting. This enables a smart adaptive sampling procedure that uses the predictive posterior variance to balance the exploration versus exploitation trade-off, and is a key enabler for practical computations under limited budgets. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on three parameter estimation problems. The first two involve the calibration of outflow boundary conditions of blood flow simulations in arterial bifurcations using multi-fidelity realizations of one- and three-dimensional models, whereas the last one aims to identify the forcing term that generated a particular solution to an elliptic partial differential equation. PMID:27194481

In vivo multiphoton microscopy beyond 1 mm in the brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, David R.; Medina, Flor A.; Hassan, Ahmed; Perillo, Evan P.; Hagan, Kristen; Kazmi, S. M. Shams; Zemelman, Boris V.; Dunn, Andrew K.

2017-02-01

We perform high-resolution, non-invasive, in vivo deep-tissue imaging of the mouse neocortex using multiphoton microscopy with a high repetition rate optical parametric amplifier laser source tunable between λ=1,100 and 1,400 nm. We demonstrate an imaging depth of 1,200 μm in vasculature and 1,160 μm in neurons. We also demonstrate deep-tissue imaging using Indocyanine Green (ICG), which is FDA approved and a promising route to translate multiphoton microscopy to human applications.

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical: Telescope Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Reese, Gayle; Byberg, Alicia

2004-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature were examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter were derived.

Experimental sub-Rayleigh resolution by an unseeded high-gain optical parametric amplifier for quantum lithography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sciarrino, Fabio; Vitelli, Chiara; de Martini, Francesco; Glasser, Ryan; Cable, Hugo; Dowling, Jonathan P.

2008-01-01

Quantum lithography proposes to adopt entangled quantum states in order to increase resolution in interferometry. In the present paper we experimentally demonstrate that the output of a high-gain optical parametric amplifier can be intense yet exhibits quantum features, namely, sub-Rayleigh fringes, as proposed by [Agarwal , Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 1389 (2001)]. We investigate multiphoton states generated by a high-gain optical parametric amplifier operating with a quantum vacuum input for gain values up to 2.5. The visibility has then been increased by means of three-photon absorption. The present paper opens interesting perspectives for the implementation of such an advanced interferometrical setup.

Ghost imaging via optical parametric amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hong-Guo; Zhang, De-Jian; Xu, De-Qin; Zhao, Qiu-Li; Wang, Sen; Wang, Hai-Bo; Xiong, Jun; Wang, Kaige

2015-10-01

We investigate theoretically and experimentally thermal light ghost imaging where the light transmitted through the object as the seed light is amplified by an optical parametric amplifier (OPA). In conventional lens imaging systems with OPA, the spectral bandwidth of OPA dominates the image resolution. Theoretically, we prove that in ghost imaging via optical parametric amplification (GIOPA) the bandwidth of OPA will not affect the image resolution. The experimental results show that for weak seed light the image quality in GIOPA is better than that of conventional ghost imaging. Our work may be valuable in remote sensing with ghost imaging technique, where the light passed through the object is weak after a long-distance propagation.

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Image Super-Resolution.

PubMed

Polatkan, Gungor; Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence; Blei, David; Daubechies, Ingrid

2015-02-01

Super-resolution methods form high-resolution images from low-resolution images. In this paper, we develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model for super-resolution. Our method uses a beta-Bernoulli process to learn a set of recurring visual patterns, called dictionary elements, from the data. Because it is nonparametric, the number of elements found is also determined from the data. We test the results on both benchmark and natural images, comparing with several other models from the research literature. We perform large-scale human evaluation experiments to assess the visual quality of the results. In a first implementation, we use Gibbs sampling to approximate the posterior. However, this algorithm is not feasible for large-scale data. To circumvent this, we then develop an online variational Bayes (VB) algorithm. This algorithm finds high quality dictionaries in a fraction of the time needed by the Gibbs sampler.

Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Data and Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Diseases

EPA Science Inventory

Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, ...

Parametric and non-parametric approach for sensory RATA (Rate-All-That-Apply) method of ledre profile attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hastuti, S.; Harijono; Murtini, E. S.; Fibrianto, K.

2018-03-01

This current study is aimed to investigate the use of parametric and non-parametric approach for sensory RATA (Rate-All-That-Apply) method. Ledre as Bojonegoro unique local food product was used as point of interest, in which 319 panelists were involved in the study. The result showed that ledre is characterized as easy-crushed texture, sticky in mouth, stingy sensation and easy to swallow. It has also strong banana flavour with brown in colour. Compared to eggroll and semprong, ledre has more variances in terms of taste as well the roll length. As RATA questionnaire is designed to collect categorical data, non-parametric approach is the common statistical procedure. However, similar results were also obtained as parametric approach, regardless the fact of non-normal distributed data. Thus, it suggests that parametric approach can be applicable for consumer study with large number of respondents, even though it may not satisfy the assumption of ANOVA (Analysis of Variances).

A High-Resolution Aerosol Retrieval Method for Urban Areas Using MISR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, T.; Wang, Y.; Liu, Y.; Yu, B.

2012-12-01

Satellite-retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) can provide a cost-effective way to monitor particulate air pollution without using expensive ground measurement sensors. One of the current state-of-the-art AOD retrieval method is NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) operational algorithm, which has the spatial resolution of 17.6 km x 17.6 km. While the MISR baseline scheme already leads to exciting research opportunities to study particle compositions at regional scale, its spatial resolution is too coarse for analyzing urban areas where the AOD level has stronger spatial variations. We develop a novel high-resolution AOD retrieval algorithm that still uses MISR's radiance observations but has the resolution of 4.4km x 4.4km. We achieve the high resolution AOD retrieval by implementing a hierarchical Bayesian model and Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) inference method. Our algorithm not only improves the spatial resolution, but also extends the coverage of AOD retrieval and provides with additional composition information of aerosol components that contribute to the AOD. We validate our method using the recent NASA's DISCOVER-AQ mission data, which contains the ground measured AOD values for Washington DC and Baltimore area. The validation result shows that, compared to the operational MISR retrievals, our scheme has 41.1% more AOD retrieval coverage for the DISCOVER-AQ data points and 24.2% improvement in mean-squared error (MSE) with respect to the AERONET ground measurements.

Using Bayesian variable selection to analyze regular resolution IV two-level fractional factorial designs

DOE PAGES

Chipman, Hugh A.; Hamada, Michael S.

2016-06-02

Regular two-level fractional factorial designs have complete aliasing in which the associated columns of multiple effects are identical. Here, we show how Bayesian variable selection can be used to analyze experiments that use such designs. In addition to sparsity and hierarchy, Bayesian variable selection naturally incorporates heredity . This prior information is used to identify the most likely combinations of active terms. We also demonstrate the method on simulated and real experiments.

Using Bayesian variable selection to analyze regular resolution IV two-level fractional factorial designs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chipman, Hugh A.; Hamada, Michael S.

Regular two-level fractional factorial designs have complete aliasing in which the associated columns of multiple effects are identical. Here, we show how Bayesian variable selection can be used to analyze experiments that use such designs. In addition to sparsity and hierarchy, Bayesian variable selection naturally incorporates heredity . This prior information is used to identify the most likely combinations of active terms. We also demonstrate the method on simulated and real experiments.

Reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty for an Alpine catchment using a non-parametric methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matos, José P.; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton J.

2017-04-01

Uncertainty affects hydrological modelling efforts from the very measurements (or forecasts) that serve as inputs to the more or less inaccurate predictions that are produced. Uncertainty is truly inescapable in hydrology and yet, due to the theoretical and technical hurdles associated with its quantification, it is at times still neglected or estimated only qualitatively. In recent years the scientific community has made a significant effort towards quantifying this hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Despite this, most of the developed methodologies can be computationally demanding, are complex from a theoretical point of view, require substantial expertise to be employed, and are constrained by a number of assumptions about the model error distribution. These assumptions limit the reliability of many methods in case of errors that show particular cases of non-normality, heteroscedasticity, or autocorrelation. The present contribution builds on a non-parametric data-driven approach that was developed for uncertainty quantification in operational (real-time) forecasting settings. The approach is based on the concept of Pareto optimality and can be used as a standalone forecasting tool or as a postprocessor. By virtue of its non-parametric nature and a general operating principle, it can be applied directly and with ease to predictions of streamflow, water stage, or even accumulated runoff. Also, it is a methodology capable of coping with high heteroscedasticity and seasonal hydrological regimes (e.g. snowmelt and rainfall driven events in the same catchment). Finally, the training and operation of the model are very fast, making it a tool particularly adapted to operational use. To illustrate its practical use, the uncertainty quantification method is coupled with a process-based hydrological model to produce statistically reliable forecasts for an Alpine catchment located in Switzerland. Results are presented and discussed in terms of their reliability and resolution.

A Bayesian analysis of redshifted 21-cm H I signal and foregrounds: simulations for LOFAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Abhik; Koopmans, Léon V. E.; Chapman, E.; Jelić, V.

2015-09-01

Observations of the epoch of reionization (EoR) using the 21-cm hyperfine emission of neutral hydrogen (H I) promise to open an entirely new window on the formation of the first stars, galaxies and accreting black holes. In order to characterize the weak 21-cm signal, we need to develop imaging techniques that can reconstruct the extended emission very precisely. Here, we present an inversion technique for LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) baselines at the North Celestial Pole (NCP), based on a Bayesian formalism with optimal spatial regularization, which is used to reconstruct the diffuse foreground map directly from the simulated visibility data. We notice that the spatial regularization de-noises the images to a large extent, allowing one to recover the 21-cm power spectrum over a considerable k⊥-k∥ space in the range 0.03 Mpc-1 < k⊥ < 0.19 Mpc-1 and 0.14 Mpc-1 < k∥ < 0.35 Mpc-1 without subtracting the noise power spectrum. We find that, in combination with using generalized morphological component analysis (GMCA), a non-parametric foreground removal technique, we can mostly recover the spherical average power spectrum within 2σ statistical fluctuations for an input Gaussian random root-mean-square noise level of 60 mK in the maps after 600 h of integration over a 10-MHz bandwidth.

Stochastic static fault slip inversion from geodetic data with non-negativity and bounds constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocquet, J.-M.

2018-04-01

Despite surface displacements observed by geodesy are linear combinations of slip at faults in an elastic medium, determining the spatial distribution of fault slip remains a ill-posed inverse problem. A widely used approach to circumvent the illness of the inversion is to add regularization constraints in terms of smoothing and/or damping so that the linear system becomes invertible. However, the choice of regularization parameters is often arbitrary, and sometimes leads to significantly different results. Furthermore, the resolution analysis is usually empirical and cannot be made independently of the regularization. The stochastic approach of inverse problems (Tarantola & Valette 1982; Tarantola 2005) provides a rigorous framework where the a priori information about the searched parameters is combined with the observations in order to derive posterior probabilities of the unkown parameters. Here, I investigate an approach where the prior probability density function (pdf) is a multivariate Gaussian function, with single truncation to impose positivity of slip or double truncation to impose positivity and upper bounds on slip for interseismic modeling. I show that the joint posterior pdf is similar to the linear untruncated Gaussian case and can be expressed as a Truncated Multi-Variate Normal (TMVN) distribution. The TMVN form can then be used to obtain semi-analytical formulas for the single, two-dimensional or n-dimensional marginal pdf. The semi-analytical formula involves the product of a Gaussian by an integral term that can be evaluated using recent developments in TMVN probabilities calculations (e.g. Genz & Bretz 2009). Posterior mean and covariance can also be efficiently derived. I show that the Maximum Posterior (MAP) can be obtained using a Non-Negative Least-Squares algorithm (Lawson & Hanson 1974) for the single truncated case or using the Bounded-Variable Least-Squares algorithm (Stark & Parker 1995) for the double truncated case. I show that the case of independent uniform priors can be approximated using TMVN. The numerical equivalence to Bayesian inversions using Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling is shown for a synthetic example and a real case for interseismic modeling in Central Peru. The TMVN method overcomes several limitations of the Bayesian approach using MCMC sampling. First, the need of computer power is largely reduced. Second, unlike Bayesian MCMC based approach, marginal pdf, mean, variance or covariance are obtained independently one from each other. Third, the probability and cumulative density functions can be obtained with any density of points. Finally, determining the Maximum Posterior (MAP) is extremely fast.

Parametric vs. non-parametric daily weather generator: validation and comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, Martin

2016-04-01

As the climate models (GCMs and RCMs) fail to satisfactorily reproduce the real-world surface weather regime, various statistical methods are applied to downscale GCM/RCM outputs into site-specific weather series. The stochastic weather generators are among the most favourite downscaling methods capable to produce realistic (observed like) meteorological inputs for agrological, hydrological and other impact models used in assessing sensitivity of various ecosystems to climate change/variability. To name their advantages, the generators may (i) produce arbitrarily long multi-variate synthetic weather series representing both present and changed climates (in the latter case, the generators are commonly modified by GCM/RCM-based climate change scenarios), (ii) be run in various time steps and for multiple weather variables (the generators reproduce the correlations among variables), (iii) be interpolated (and run also for sites where no weather data are available to calibrate the generator). This contribution will compare two stochastic daily weather generators in terms of their ability to reproduce various features of the daily weather series. M&Rfi is a parametric generator: Markov chain model is used to model precipitation occurrence, precipitation amount is modelled by the Gamma distribution, and the 1st order autoregressive model is used to generate non-precipitation surface weather variables. The non-parametric GoMeZ generator is based on the nearest neighbours resampling technique making no assumption on the distribution of the variables being generated. Various settings of both weather generators will be assumed in the present validation tests. The generators will be validated in terms of (a) extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics (annual and 30 years extremes and maxima of duration of hot/cold/dry/wet spells); (b) selected validation statistics developed within the frame of VALUE project. The tests will be based on observational weather series from several European stations available from the ECA&D database.

Tuning single-photon sources for telecom multi-photon experiments.

PubMed

Greganti, Chiara; Schiansky, Peter; Calafell, Irati Alonso; Procopio, Lorenzo M; Rozema, Lee A; Walther, Philip

2018-02-05

Multi-photon state generation is of great interest for near-future quantum simulation and quantum computation experiments. To-date spontaneous parametric down-conversion is still the most promising process, even though two major impediments still exist: accidental photon noise (caused by the probabilistic non-linear process) and imperfect single-photon purity (arising from spectral entanglement between the photon pairs). In this work, we overcome both of these difficulties by (1) exploiting a passive temporal multiplexing scheme and (2) carefully optimizing the spectral properties of the down-converted photons using periodically-poled KTP crystals. We construct two down-conversion sources in the telecom wavelength regime, finding spectral purities of > 91%, while maintaining high four-photon count rates. We use single-photon grating spectrometers together with superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors to perform a detailed characterization of our multi-photon source. Our methods provide practical solutions to produce high-quality multi-photon states, which are in demand for many quantum photonics applications.

Multi-channel lock-in amplifier assisted femtosecond time-resolved fluorescence non-collinear optical parametric amplification spectroscopy with efficient rejection of superfluorescence background.

PubMed

Mao, Pengcheng; Wang, Zhuan; Dang, Wei; Weng, Yuxiang

2015-12-01

Superfluorescence appears as an intense background in femtosecond time-resolved fluorescence noncollinear optical parametric amplification spectroscopy, which severely interferes the reliable acquisition of the time-resolved fluorescence spectra especially for an optically dilute sample. Superfluorescence originates from the optical amplification of the vacuum quantum noise, which would be inevitably concomitant with the amplified fluorescence photons during the optical parametric amplification process. Here, we report the development of a femtosecond time-resolved fluorescence non-collinear optical parametric amplification spectrometer assisted with a 32-channel lock-in amplifier for efficient rejection of the superfluorescence background. With this spectrometer, the superfluorescence background signal can be significantly reduced to 1/300-1/100 when the seeding fluorescence is modulated. An integrated 32-bundle optical fiber is used as a linear array light receiver connected to 32 photodiodes in one-to-one mode, and the photodiodes are further coupled to a home-built 32-channel synchronous digital lock-in amplifier. As an implementation, time-resolved fluorescence spectra for rhodamine 6G dye in ethanol solution at an optically dilute concentration of 10(-5)M excited at 510 nm with an excitation intensity of 70 nJ/pulse have been successfully recorded, and the detection limit at a pump intensity of 60 μJ/pulse was determined as about 13 photons/pulse. Concentration dependent redshift starting at 30 ps after the excitation in time-resolved fluorescence spectra of this dye has also been observed, which can be attributed to the formation of the excimer at a higher concentration, while the blueshift in the earlier time within 10 ps is attributed to the solvation process.

Multi-channel lock-in amplifier assisted femtosecond time-resolved fluorescence non-collinear optical parametric amplification spectroscopy with efficient rejection of superfluorescence background

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Pengcheng; Wang, Zhuan; Dang, Wei

Superfluorescence appears as an intense background in femtosecond time-resolved fluorescence noncollinear optical parametric amplification spectroscopy, which severely interferes the reliable acquisition of the time-resolved fluorescence spectra especially for an optically dilute sample. Superfluorescence originates from the optical amplification of the vacuum quantum noise, which would be inevitably concomitant with the amplified fluorescence photons during the optical parametric amplification process. Here, we report the development of a femtosecond time-resolved fluorescence non-collinear optical parametric amplification spectrometer assisted with a 32-channel lock-in amplifier for efficient rejection of the superfluorescence background. With this spectrometer, the superfluorescence background signal can be significantly reduced to 1/300–1/100more » when the seeding fluorescence is modulated. An integrated 32-bundle optical fiber is used as a linear array light receiver connected to 32 photodiodes in one-to-one mode, and the photodiodes are further coupled to a home-built 32-channel synchronous digital lock-in amplifier. As an implementation, time-resolved fluorescence spectra for rhodamine 6G dye in ethanol solution at an optically dilute concentration of 10{sup −5}M excited at 510 nm with an excitation intensity of 70 nJ/pulse have been successfully recorded, and the detection limit at a pump intensity of 60 μJ/pulse was determined as about 13 photons/pulse. Concentration dependent redshift starting at 30 ps after the excitation in time-resolved fluorescence spectra of this dye has also been observed, which can be attributed to the formation of the excimer at a higher concentration, while the blueshift in the earlier time within 10 ps is attributed to the solvation process.« less

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty.

PubMed

Mihaljević, Bojan; Bielza, Concha; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists' classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features.

Combined multi-plane phase retrieval and super-resolution optical fluctuation imaging for 4D cell microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descloux, A.; Grußmayer, K. S.; Bostan, E.; Lukes, T.; Bouwens, A.; Sharipov, A.; Geissbuehler, S.; Mahul-Mellier, A.-L.; Lashuel, H. A.; Leutenegger, M.; Lasser, T.

2018-03-01

Super-resolution fluorescence microscopy provides unprecedented insight into cellular and subcellular structures. However, going `beyond the diffraction barrier' comes at a price, since most far-field super-resolution imaging techniques trade temporal for spatial super-resolution. We propose the combination of a novel label-free white light quantitative phase imaging with fluorescence to provide high-speed imaging and spatial super-resolution. The non-iterative phase retrieval relies on the acquisition of single images at each z-location and thus enables straightforward 3D phase imaging using a classical microscope. We realized multi-plane imaging using a customized prism for the simultaneous acquisition of eight planes. This allowed us to not only image live cells in 3D at up to 200 Hz, but also to integrate fluorescence super-resolution optical fluctuation imaging within the same optical instrument. The 4D microscope platform unifies the sensitivity and high temporal resolution of phase imaging with the specificity and high spatial resolution of fluorescence microscopy.

Bayesian Deconvolution for Angular Super-Resolution in Forward-Looking Scanning Radar

PubMed Central

Zha, Yuebo; Huang, Yulin; Sun, Zhichao; Wang, Yue; Yang, Jianyu

2015-01-01

Scanning radar is of notable importance for ground surveillance, terrain mapping and disaster rescue. However, the angular resolution of a scanning radar image is poor compared to the achievable range resolution. This paper presents a deconvolution algorithm for angular super-resolution in scanning radar based on Bayesian theory, which states that the angular super-resolution can be realized by solving the corresponding deconvolution problem with the maximum a posteriori (MAP) criterion. The algorithm considers that the noise is composed of two mutually independent parts, i.e., a Gaussian signal-independent component and a Poisson signal-dependent component. In addition, the Laplace distribution is used to represent the prior information about the targets under the assumption that the radar image of interest can be represented by the dominant scatters in the scene. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed deconvolution algorithm has higher precision for angular super-resolution compared with the conventional algorithms, such as the Tikhonov regularization algorithm, the Wiener filter and the Richardson–Lucy algorithm. PMID:25806871

Comparison of statistical sampling methods with ScannerBit, the GAMBIT scanning module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Gregory D.; McKay, James; Farmer, Ben; Scott, Pat; Roebber, Elinore; Putze, Antje; Conrad, Jan

2017-11-01

We introduce ScannerBit, the statistics and sampling module of the public, open-source global fitting framework GAMBIT. ScannerBit provides a standardised interface to different sampling algorithms, enabling the use and comparison of multiple computational methods for inferring profile likelihoods, Bayesian posteriors, and other statistical quantities. The current version offers random, grid, raster, nested sampling, differential evolution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and ensemble Monte Carlo samplers. We also announce the release of a new standalone differential evolution sampler, Diver, and describe its design, usage and interface to ScannerBit. We subject Diver and three other samplers (the nested sampler MultiNest, the MCMC GreAT, and the native ScannerBit implementation of the ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm T-Walk) to a battery of statistical tests. For this we use a realistic physical likelihood function, based on the scalar singlet model of dark matter. We examine the performance of each sampler as a function of its adjustable settings, and the dimensionality of the sampling problem. We evaluate performance on four metrics: optimality of the best fit found, completeness in exploring the best-fit region, number of likelihood evaluations, and total runtime. For Bayesian posterior estimation at high resolution, T-Walk provides the most accurate and timely mapping of the full parameter space. For profile likelihood analysis in less than about ten dimensions, we find that Diver and MultiNest score similarly in terms of best fit and speed, outperforming GreAT and T-Walk; in ten or more dimensions, Diver substantially outperforms the other three samplers on all metrics.

Inferring the most probable maps of underground utilities using Bayesian mapping model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilal, Muhammad; Khan, Wasiq; Muggleton, Jennifer; Rustighi, Emiliano; Jenks, Hugo; Pennock, Steve R.; Atkins, Phil R.; Cohn, Anthony

2018-03-01

Mapping the Underworld (MTU), a major initiative in the UK, is focused on addressing social, environmental and economic consequences raised from the inability to locate buried underground utilities (such as pipes and cables) by developing a multi-sensor mobile device. The aim of MTU device is to locate different types of buried assets in real time with the use of automated data processing techniques and statutory records. The statutory records, even though typically being inaccurate and incomplete, provide useful prior information on what is buried under the ground and where. However, the integration of information from multiple sensors (raw data) with these qualitative maps and their visualization is challenging and requires the implementation of robust machine learning/data fusion approaches. An approach for automated creation of revised maps was developed as a Bayesian Mapping model in this paper by integrating the knowledge extracted from sensors raw data and available statutory records. The combination of statutory records with the hypotheses from sensors was for initial estimation of what might be found underground and roughly where. The maps were (re)constructed using automated image segmentation techniques for hypotheses extraction and Bayesian classification techniques for segment-manhole connections. The model consisting of image segmentation algorithm and various Bayesian classification techniques (segment recognition and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm) provided robust performance on various simulated as well as real sites in terms of predicting linear/non-linear segments and constructing refined 2D/3D maps.

An open source multivariate framework for n-tissue segmentation with evaluation on public data.

PubMed

Avants, Brian B; Tustison, Nicholas J; Wu, Jue; Cook, Philip A; Gee, James C

2011-12-01

We introduce Atropos, an ITK-based multivariate n-class open source segmentation algorithm distributed with ANTs ( http://www.picsl.upenn.edu/ANTs). The Bayesian formulation of the segmentation problem is solved using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm with the modeling of the class intensities based on either parametric or non-parametric finite mixtures. Atropos is capable of incorporating spatial prior probability maps (sparse), prior label maps and/or Markov Random Field (MRF) modeling. Atropos has also been efficiently implemented to handle large quantities of possible labelings (in the experimental section, we use up to 69 classes) with a minimal memory footprint. This work describes the technical and implementation aspects of Atropos and evaluates its performance on two different ground-truth datasets. First, we use the BrainWeb dataset from Montreal Neurological Institute to evaluate three-tissue segmentation performance via (1) K-means segmentation without use of template data; (2) MRF segmentation with initialization by prior probability maps derived from a group template; (3) Prior-based segmentation with use of spatial prior probability maps derived from a group template. We also evaluate Atropos performance by using spatial priors to drive a 69-class EM segmentation problem derived from the Hammers atlas from University College London. These evaluation studies, combined with illustrative examples that exercise Atropos options, demonstrate both performance and wide applicability of this new platform-independent open source segmentation tool.

An Open Source Multivariate Framework for n-Tissue Segmentation with Evaluation on Public Data

PubMed Central

Tustison, Nicholas J.; Wu, Jue; Cook, Philip A.; Gee, James C.

2012-01-01

We introduce Atropos, an ITK-based multivariate n-class open source segmentation algorithm distributed with ANTs (http://www.picsl.upenn.edu/ANTs). The Bayesian formulation of the segmentation problem is solved using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm with the modeling of the class intensities based on either parametric or non-parametric finite mixtures. Atropos is capable of incorporating spatial prior probability maps (sparse), prior label maps and/or Markov Random Field (MRF) modeling. Atropos has also been efficiently implemented to handle large quantities of possible labelings (in the experimental section, we use up to 69 classes) with a minimal memory footprint. This work describes the technical and implementation aspects of Atropos and evaluates its performance on two different ground-truth datasets. First, we use the BrainWeb dataset from Montreal Neurological Institute to evaluate three-tissue segmentation performance via (1) K-means segmentation without use of template data; (2) MRF segmentation with initialization by prior probability maps derived from a group template; (3) Prior-based segmentation with use of spatial prior probability maps derived from a group template. We also evaluate Atropos performance by using spatial priors to drive a 69-class EM segmentation problem derived from the Hammers atlas from University College London. These evaluation studies, combined with illustrative examples that exercise Atropos options, demonstrate both performance and wide applicability of this new platform-independent open source segmentation tool. PMID:21373993

A multimembership catalogue for 1876 open clusters using UCAC4 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampedro, L.; Dias, W. S.; Alfaro, E. J.; Monteiro, H.; Molino, A.

2017-10-01

The main objective of this work is to determine the cluster members of 1876 open clusters, using positions and proper motions of the astrometric fourth United States Naval Observatory (USNO) CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC4). For this purpose, we apply three different methods, all based on a Bayesian approach, but with different formulations: a purely parametric method, another completely non-parametric algorithm and a third, recently developed by Sampedro & Alfaro, using both formulations at different steps of the whole process. The first and second statistical moments of the members' phase-space subspace, obtained after applying the three methods, are compared for every cluster. Although, on average, the three methods yield similar results, there are also specific differences between them, as well as for some particular clusters. The comparison with other published catalogues shows good agreement. We have also estimated, for the first time, the mean proper motion for a sample of 18 clusters. The results are organized in a single catalogue formed by two main files, one with the most relevant information for each cluster, partially including that in UCAC4, and the other showing the individual membership probabilities for each star in the cluster area. The final catalogue, with an interface design that enables an easy interaction with the user, is available in electronic format at the Stellar Systems Group (SSG-IAA) web site (http://ssg.iaa.es/en/content/sampedro-cluster-catalog).

CORNAS: coverage-dependent RNA-Seq analysis of gene expression data without biological replicates.

PubMed

Low, Joel Z B; Khang, Tsung Fei; Tammi, Martti T

2017-12-28

In current statistical methods for calling differentially expressed genes in RNA-Seq experiments, the assumption is that an adjusted observed gene count represents an unknown true gene count. This adjustment usually consists of a normalization step to account for heterogeneous sample library sizes, and then the resulting normalized gene counts are used as input for parametric or non-parametric differential gene expression tests. A distribution of true gene counts, each with a different probability, can result in the same observed gene count. Importantly, sequencing coverage information is currently not explicitly incorporated into any of the statistical models used for RNA-Seq analysis. We developed a fast Bayesian method which uses the sequencing coverage information determined from the concentration of an RNA sample to estimate the posterior distribution of a true gene count. Our method has better or comparable performance compared to NOISeq and GFOLD, according to the results from simulations and experiments with real unreplicated data. We incorporated a previously unused sequencing coverage parameter into a procedure for differential gene expression analysis with RNA-Seq data. Our results suggest that our method can be used to overcome analytical bottlenecks in experiments with limited number of replicates and low sequencing coverage. The method is implemented in CORNAS (Coverage-dependent RNA-Seq), and is available at https://github.com/joel-lzb/CORNAS .

A mixture model for bovine abortion and foetal survival.

PubMed

Hanson, Timothy; Bedrick, Edward J; Johnson, Wesley O; Thurmond, Mark C

2003-05-30

The effect of spontaneous abortion on the dairy industry is substantial, costing the industry on the order of US dollars 200 million per year in California alone. We analyse data from a cohort study of nine dairy herds in Central California. A key feature of the analysis is the observation that only a relatively small proportion of cows will abort (around 10;15 per cent), so that it is inappropriate to analyse the time-to-abortion (TTA) data as if it were standard censored survival data, with cows that fail to abort by the end of the study treated as censored observations. We thus broaden the scope to consider the analysis of foetal lifetime distribution (FLD) data for the cows, with the dual goals of characterizing the effects of various risk factors on (i). the likelihood of abortion and, conditional on abortion status, on (ii). the risk of early versus late abortion. A single model is developed to accomplish both goals with two sets of specific herd effects modelled as random effects. Because multimodal foetal hazard functions are expected for the TTA data, both a parametric mixture model and a non-parametric model are developed. Furthermore, the two sets of analyses are linked because of anticipated dependence between the random herd effects. All modelling and inferences are accomplished using modern Bayesian methods. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multi-resolution simulation of focused ultrasound propagation through ovine skull from a single-element transducer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Kyungho; Lee, Wonhye; Croce, Phillip; Cammalleri, Amanda; Yoo, Seung-Schik

2018-05-01

Transcranial focused ultrasound (tFUS) is emerging as a non-invasive brain stimulation modality. Complicated interactions between acoustic pressure waves and osseous tissue introduce many challenges in the accurate targeting of an acoustic focus through the cranium. Image-guidance accompanied by a numerical simulation is desired to predict the intracranial acoustic propagation through the skull; however, such simulations typically demand heavy computation, which warrants an expedited processing method to provide on-site feedback for the user in guiding the acoustic focus to a particular brain region. In this paper, we present a multi-resolution simulation method based on the finite-difference time-domain formulation to model the transcranial propagation of acoustic waves from a single-element transducer (250 kHz). The multi-resolution approach improved computational efficiency by providing the flexibility in adjusting the spatial resolution. The simulation was also accelerated by utilizing parallelized computation through the graphic processing unit. To evaluate the accuracy of the method, we measured the actual acoustic fields through ex vivo sheep skulls with different sonication incident angles. The measured acoustic fields were compared to the simulation results in terms of focal location, dimensions, and pressure levels. The computational efficiency of the presented method was also assessed by comparing simulation speeds at various combinations of resolution grid settings. The multi-resolution grids consisting of 0.5 and 1.0 mm resolutions gave acceptable accuracy (under 3 mm in terms of focal position and dimension, less than 5% difference in peak pressure ratio) with a speed compatible with semi real-time user feedback (within 30 s). The proposed multi-resolution approach may serve as a novel tool for simulation-based guidance for tFUS applications.

Multi-resolution simulation of focused ultrasound propagation through ovine skull from a single-element transducer.

PubMed

Yoon, Kyungho; Lee, Wonhye; Croce, Phillip; Cammalleri, Amanda; Yoo, Seung-Schik

2018-05-10

Transcranial focused ultrasound (tFUS) is emerging as a non-invasive brain stimulation modality. Complicated interactions between acoustic pressure waves and osseous tissue introduce many challenges in the accurate targeting of an acoustic focus through the cranium. Image-guidance accompanied by a numerical simulation is desired to predict the intracranial acoustic propagation through the skull; however, such simulations typically demand heavy computation, which warrants an expedited processing method to provide on-site feedback for the user in guiding the acoustic focus to a particular brain region. In this paper, we present a multi-resolution simulation method based on the finite-difference time-domain formulation to model the transcranial propagation of acoustic waves from a single-element transducer (250 kHz). The multi-resolution approach improved computational efficiency by providing the flexibility in adjusting the spatial resolution. The simulation was also accelerated by utilizing parallelized computation through the graphic processing unit. To evaluate the accuracy of the method, we measured the actual acoustic fields through ex vivo sheep skulls with different sonication incident angles. The measured acoustic fields were compared to the simulation results in terms of focal location, dimensions, and pressure levels. The computational efficiency of the presented method was also assessed by comparing simulation speeds at various combinations of resolution grid settings. The multi-resolution grids consisting of 0.5 and 1.0 mm resolutions gave acceptable accuracy (under 3 mm in terms of focal position and dimension, less than 5% difference in peak pressure ratio) with a speed compatible with semi real-time user feedback (within 30 s). The proposed multi-resolution approach may serve as a novel tool for simulation-based guidance for tFUS applications.

Economic policy optimization based on both one stochastic model and the parametric control theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashimov, Abdykappar; Borovskiy, Yuriy; Onalbekov, Mukhit

2016-06-01

A nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions is developed to describe two interacting national economies in the environment of the rest of the world. Parameters of nonlinear model are estimated based on its log-linearization by the Bayesian approach. The nonlinear model is verified by retroprognosis, estimation of stability indicators of mappings specified by the model, and estimation the degree of coincidence for results of internal and external shocks' effects on macroeconomic indicators on the basis of the estimated nonlinear model and its log-linearization. On the base of the nonlinear model, the parametric control problems of economic growth and volatility of macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan are formulated and solved for two exchange rate regimes (free floating and managed floating exchange rates)

Geometric and radiometric preprocessing of airborne visible/infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS) data in rugged terrain for quantitative data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, Peter; Green, Robert O.; Staenz, Karl; Itten, Klaus I.

1994-01-01

A geocoding procedure for remotely sensed data of airborne systems in rugged terrain is affected by several factors: buffeting of the aircraft by turbulence, variations in ground speed, changes in altitude, attitude variations, and surface topography. The current investigation was carried out with an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) scene of central Switzerland (Rigi) from NASA's Multi Aircraft Campaign (MAC) in Europe (1991). The parametric approach reconstructs for every pixel the observation geometry based on the flight line, aircraft attitude, and surface topography. To utilize the data for analysis of materials on the surface, the AVIRIS data are corrected to apparent reflectance using algorithms based on MODTRAN (moderate resolution transfer code).

Coherent X-ray beam metrology using 2D high-resolution Fresnel-diffraction analysis.

PubMed

Ruiz-Lopez, M; Faenov, A; Pikuz, T; Ozaki, N; Mitrofanov, A; Albertazzi, B; Hartley, N; Matsuoka, T; Ochante, Y; Tange, Y; Yabuuchi, T; Habara, T; Tanaka, K A; Inubushi, Y; Yabashi, M; Nishikino, M; Kawachi, T; Pikuz, S; Ishikawa, T; Kodama, R; Bleiner, D

2017-01-01

Direct metrology of coherent short-wavelength beamlines is important for obtaining operational beam characteristics at the experimental site. However, since beam-time limitation imposes fast metrology procedures, a multi-parametric metrology from as low as a single shot is desirable. Here a two-dimensional (2D) procedure based on high-resolution Fresnel diffraction analysis is discussed and applied, which allowed an efficient and detailed beamline characterization at the SACLA XFEL. So far, the potential of Fresnel diffraction for beamline metrology has not been fully exploited because its high-frequency fringes could be only partly resolved with ordinary pixel-limited detectors. Using the high-spatial-frequency imaging capability of an irradiated LiF crystal, 2D information of the coherence degree, beam divergence and beam quality factor M 2 were retrieved from simple diffraction patterns. The developed beam metrology was validated with a laboratory reference laser, and then successfully applied at a beamline facility, in agreement with the source specifications.

Wavelet extractor: A Bayesian well-tie and wavelet extraction program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunning, James; Glinsky, Michael E.

2006-06-01

We introduce a new open-source toolkit for the well-tie or wavelet extraction problem of estimating seismic wavelets from seismic data, time-to-depth information, and well-log suites. The wavelet extraction model is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and the software will simultaneously estimate wavelet coefficients, other parameters associated with uncertainty in the time-to-depth mapping, positioning errors in the seismic imaging, and useful amplitude-variation-with-offset (AVO) related parameters in multi-stack extractions. It is capable of multi-well, multi-stack extractions, and uses continuous seismic data-cube interpolation to cope with the problem of arbitrary well paths. Velocity constraints in the form of checkshot data, interpreted markers, and sonic logs are integrated in a natural way. The Bayesian formulation allows computation of full posterior uncertainties of the model parameters, and the important problem of the uncertain wavelet span is addressed uses a multi-model posterior developed from Bayesian model selection theory. The wavelet extraction tool is distributed as part of the Delivery seismic inversion toolkit. A simple log and seismic viewing tool is included in the distribution. The code is written in Java, and thus platform independent, but the Seismic Unix (SU) data model makes the inversion particularly suited to Unix/Linux environments. It is a natural companion piece of software to Delivery, having the capacity to produce maximum likelihood wavelet and noise estimates, but will also be of significant utility to practitioners wanting to produce wavelet estimates for other inversion codes or purposes. The generation of full parameter uncertainties is a crucial function for workers wishing to investigate questions of wavelet stability before proceeding to more advanced inversion studies.

A microbiology-based multi-parametric approach towards assessing biological stability in drinking water distribution networks.

PubMed

Lautenschlager, Karin; Hwang, Chiachi; Liu, Wen-Tso; Boon, Nico; Köster, Oliver; Vrouwenvelder, Hans; Egli, Thomas; Hammes, Frederik

2013-06-01

Biological stability of drinking water implies that the concentration of bacterial cells and composition of the microbial community should not change during distribution. In this study, we used a multi-parametric approach that encompasses different aspects of microbial water quality including microbial growth potential, microbial abundance, and microbial community composition, to monitor biological stability in drinking water of the non-chlorinated distribution system of Zürich. Drinking water was collected directly after treatment from the reservoir and in the network at several locations with varied average hydraulic retention times (6-52 h) over a period of four months, with a single repetition two years later. Total cell concentrations (TCC) measured with flow cytometry remained remarkably stable at 9.5 (± 0.6) × 10(4) cells/ml from water in the reservoir throughout most of the distribution network, and during the whole time period. Conventional microbial methods like heterotrophic plate counts, the concentration of adenosine tri-phosphate, total organic carbon and assimilable organic carbon remained also constant. Samples taken two years apart showed more than 80% similarity for the microbial communities analysed with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and 454 pyrosequencing. Only the two sampling locations with the longest water retention times were the exceptions and, so far for unknown reasons, recorded a slight but significantly higher TCC (1.3 (± 0.1) × 10(5) cells/ml) compared to the other locations. This small change in microbial abundance detected by flow cytometry was also clearly observed in a shift in the microbial community profiles to a higher abundance of members from the Comamonadaceae (60% vs. 2% at other locations). Conventional microbial detection methods were not able to detect changes as observed with flow cytometric cell counts and microbial community analysis. Our findings demonstrate that the multi-parametric approach used provides a powerful and sensitive tool to assess and evaluate biological stability and microbial processes in drinking water distribution systems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

eDNAoccupancy: An R package for multi-scale occupancy modeling of environmental DNA data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Erickson, Richard A.

2017-01-01

In this article we describe eDNAoccupancy, an R package for fitting Bayesian, multi-scale occupancy models. These models are appropriate for occupancy surveys that include three, nested levels of sampling: primary sample units within a study area, secondary sample units collected from each primary unit, and replicates of each secondary sample unit. This design is commonly used in occupancy surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA). eDNAoccupancy allows users to specify and fit multi-scale occupancy models with or without covariates, to estimate posterior summaries of occurrence and detection probabilities, and to compare different models using Bayesian model-selection criteria. We illustrate these features by analyzing two published data sets: eDNA surveys of a fungal pathogen of amphibians and eDNA surveys of an endangered fish species.

ALMA-SZ Detection of a Galaxy Cluster Merger Shock at Half the Age of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, K.; Sommer, M.; Erler, J.; Eckert, D.; Vazza, F.; Magnelli, B.; Bertoldi, F.; Tozzi, P.

2016-10-01

We present ALMA measurements of a merger shock using the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect signal, at the location of a radio relic in the famous El Gordo galaxy cluster at z≈ 0.9. Multi-wavelength analysis in combination with the archival Chandra data and a high-resolution radio image provides a consistent picture of the thermal and non-thermal signal variation across the shock front and helps to put robust constraints on the shock Mach number as well as the relic magnetic field. We employ a Bayesian analysis technique for modeling the SZ and X-ray data self-consistently, illustrating respective parameter degeneracies. Combined results indicate a shock with Mach number { M }={2.4}-0.6+1.3, which in turn suggests a high value of the magnetic field (of the order of 4-10 μ {{G}}) to account for the observed relic width at 2 GHz. At roughly half the current age of the universe, this is the highest-redshift direct detection of a cluster shock to date, and one of the first instances of an ALMA-SZ observation in a galaxy cluster. It shows the tremendous potential for future ALMA-SZ observations to detect merger shocks and other cluster substructures out to the highest redshifts.

A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

2009-05-01

Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

High Efficiency Multi-shot Interleaved Spiral-In/Out Acquisition for High Resolution BOLD fMRI

PubMed Central

Jung, Youngkyoo; Samsonov, Alexey A.; Liu, Thomas T.; Buracas, Giedrius T.

2012-01-01

Growing demand for high spatial resolution BOLD functional MRI faces a challenge of the spatial resolution vs. coverage or temporal resolution tradeoff, which can be addressed by methods that afford increased acquisition efficiency. Spiral acquisition trajectories have been shown to be superior to currently prevalent echo-planar imaging in terms of acquisition efficiency, and high spatial resolution can be achieved by employing multiple-shot spiral acquisition. The interleaved spiral in-out trajectory is preferred over spiral-in due to increased BOLD signal CNR and higher acquisition efficiency than that of spiral-out or non-interleaved spiral in/out trajectories (1), but to date applicability of the multi-shot interleaved spiral in-out for high spatial resolution imaging has not been studied. Herein we propose multi-shot interleaved spiral in-out acquisition and investigate its applicability for high spatial resolution BOLD fMRI. Images reconstructed from interleaved spiral-in and -out trajectories possess artifacts caused by differences in T2* decay, off-resonance and k-space errors associated with the two trajectories. We analyze the associated errors and demonstrate that application of conjugate phase reconstruction and spectral filtering can substantially mitigate these image artifacts. After applying these processing steps, the multishot interleaved spiral in-out pulse sequence yields high BOLD CNR images at in-plane resolution below 1x1 mm while preserving acceptable temporal resolution (4 s) and brain coverage (15 slices of 2 mm thickness). Moreover, this method yields sufficient BOLD CNR at 1.5 mm isotropic resolution for detection of activation in hippocampus associated with cognitive tasks (Stern memory task). The multi-shot interleaved spiral in-out acquisition is a promising technique for high spatial resolution BOLD fMRI applications. PMID:23023395

Estimating technical efficiency in the hospital sector with panel data: a comparison of parametric and non-parametric techniques.

PubMed

Siciliani, Luigi

2006-01-01

Policy makers are increasingly interested in developing performance indicators that measure hospital efficiency. These indicators may give the purchasers of health services an additional regulatory tool to contain health expenditure. Using panel data, this study compares different parametric (econometric) and non-parametric (linear programming) techniques for the measurement of a hospital's technical efficiency. This comparison was made using a sample of 17 Italian hospitals in the years 1996-9. Highest correlations are found in the efficiency scores between the non-parametric data envelopment analysis under the constant returns to scale assumption (DEA-CRS) and several parametric models. Correlation reduces markedly when using more flexible non-parametric specifications such as data envelopment analysis under the variable returns to scale assumption (DEA-VRS) and the free disposal hull (FDH) model. Correlation also generally reduces when moving from one output to two-output specifications. This analysis suggests that there is scope for developing performance indicators at hospital level using panel data, but it is important that extensive sensitivity analysis is carried out if purchasers wish to make use of these indicators in practice.

A Bayesian Network Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Identifying Dominant Processes in a Multi-physics Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Sensitivity analysis has been an important tool in groundwater modeling to identify the influential parameters. Among various sensitivity analysis methods, the variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity for its model independence characteristic and capability of providing accurate sensitivity measurements. However, the conventional variance-based method only considers uncertainty contribution of single model parameters. In this research, we extended the variance-based method to consider more uncertainty sources and developed a new framework to allow flexible combinations of different uncertainty components. We decompose the uncertainty sources into a hierarchical three-layer structure: scenario, model and parametric. Furthermore, each layer of uncertainty source is capable of containing multiple components. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework was then constructed following this three-layer structure using Bayesian network. Different uncertainty components are represented as uncertain nodes in this network. Through the framework, variance-based sensitivity analysis can be implemented with great flexibility of using different grouping strategies for uncertainty components. The variance-based sensitivity analysis thus is improved to be able to investigate the importance of an extended range of uncertainty sources: scenario, model, and other different combinations of uncertainty components which can represent certain key model system processes (e.g., groundwater recharge process, flow reactive transport process). For test and demonstration purposes, the developed methodology was implemented into a test case of real-world groundwater reactive transport modeling with various uncertainty sources. The results demonstrate that the new sensitivity analysis method is able to estimate accurate importance measurements for any uncertainty sources which were formed by different combinations of uncertainty components. The new methodology can provide useful information for environmental management and decision-makers to formulate policies and strategies.

Planck intermediate results. XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J. R.; Bouchet, F. R.; Burigana, C.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Couchot, F.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Liddle, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski∗, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rouillé d'Orfeuil, B.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Spencer, L. D.; Spinelli, M.; Starck, J.-L.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2014-06-01

We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the ΛCDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agreement with the cosmological results from the Bayesian framework is excellent, demonstrating the robustness of the Planck results to the statistical methodology. We investigate the inclusion of neutrino masses, where more significant differences may appear due to the non-Gaussian nature of the posterior mass distribution. By applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription, we again obtain results very similar to those of the Bayesian methodology. However, the profile-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) combination (Planck+WP+highL) reveals a minimum well within the unphysical negative-mass region. We show that inclusion of the Planck CMB-lensing information regularizes this issue, and provide a robust frequentist upper limit ∑ mν ≤ 0.26 eV (95% confidence) from the CMB+lensing+BAO data combination.

Crack Identification in CFRP Laminated Beams Using Multi-Resolution Modal Teager–Kaiser Energy under Noisy Environments

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Cao, Maosen; Ding, Keqin; Radzieński, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wiesław

2017-01-01

Carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminates are increasingly used in the aerospace and civil engineering fields. Identifying cracks in carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminated beam components is of considerable significance for ensuring the integrity and safety of the whole structures. With the development of high-resolution measurement technologies, mode-shape-based crack identification in such laminated beam components has become an active research focus. Despite its sensitivity to cracks, however, this method is susceptible to noise. To address this deficiency, this study proposes a new concept of multi-resolution modal Teager–Kaiser energy, which is the Teager–Kaiser energy of a mode shape represented in multi-resolution, for identifying cracks in carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminated beams. The efficacy of this concept is analytically demonstrated by identifying cracks in Timoshenko beams with general boundary conditions; and its applicability is validated by diagnosing cracks in a carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminated beam, whose mode shapes are precisely acquired via non-contact measurement using a scanning laser vibrometer. The analytical and experimental results show that multi-resolution modal Teager–Kaiser energy is capable of designating the presence and location of cracks in these beams under noisy environments. This proposed method holds promise for developing crack identification systems for carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminates. PMID:28773016

Ground-Based Telescope Parametric Cost Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes

2004-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis, The model includes both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, other significant factors include primary mirror radius of curvature and diffraction limited wavelength. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e.. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter are derived. This analysis indicates that recent mirror technology advances have indeed reduced the historical telescope cost curve.

Multi-resolution Shape Analysis via Non-Euclidean Wavelets: Applications to Mesh Segmentation and Surface Alignment Problems.

PubMed

Kim, Won Hwa; Chung, Moo K; Singh, Vikas

2013-01-01

The analysis of 3-D shape meshes is a fundamental problem in computer vision, graphics, and medical imaging. Frequently, the needs of the application require that our analysis take a multi-resolution view of the shape's local and global topology, and that the solution is consistent across multiple scales. Unfortunately, the preferred mathematical construct which offers this behavior in classical image/signal processing, Wavelets, is no longer applicable in this general setting (data with non-uniform topology). In particular, the traditional definition does not allow writing out an expansion for graphs that do not correspond to the uniformly sampled lattice (e.g., images). In this paper, we adapt recent results in harmonic analysis, to derive Non-Euclidean Wavelets based algorithms for a range of shape analysis problems in vision and medical imaging. We show how descriptors derived from the dual domain representation offer native multi-resolution behavior for characterizing local/global topology around vertices. With only minor modifications, the framework yields a method for extracting interest/key points from shapes, a surprisingly simple algorithm for 3-D shape segmentation (competitive with state of the art), and a method for surface alignment (without landmarks). We give an extensive set of comparison results on a large shape segmentation benchmark and derive a uniqueness theorem for the surface alignment problem.

Multi-Detection Events, Probability Density Functions, and Reduced Location Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eslinger, Paul W.; Schrom, Brian T.

2016-03-01

Abstract Several efforts have been made in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) community to assess the benefits of combining detections of radionuclides to improve the location estimates available from atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) backtrack calculations. We present a Bayesian estimation approach rather than a simple dilution field of regard approach to allow xenon detections and non-detections to be combined mathematically. This system represents one possible probabilistic approach to radionuclide event formation. Application of this method to a recent interesting radionuclide event shows a substantial reduction in the location uncertainty of that event.

Efficient Posterior Probability Mapping Using Savage-Dickey Ratios

PubMed Central

Penny, William D.; Ridgway, Gerard R.

2013-01-01

Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) is the dominant paradigm for mass-univariate analysis of neuroimaging data. More recently, a Bayesian approach termed Posterior Probability Mapping (PPM) has been proposed as an alternative. PPM offers two advantages: (i) inferences can be made about effect size thus lending a precise physiological meaning to activated regions, (ii) regions can be declared inactive. This latter facility is most parsimoniously provided by PPMs based on Bayesian model comparisons. To date these comparisons have been implemented by an Independent Model Optimization (IMO) procedure which separately fits null and alternative models. This paper proposes a more computationally efficient procedure based on Savage-Dickey approximations to the Bayes factor, and Taylor-series approximations to the voxel-wise posterior covariance matrices. Simulations show the accuracy of this Savage-Dickey-Taylor (SDT) method to be comparable to that of IMO. Results on fMRI data show excellent agreement between SDT and IMO for second-level models, and reasonable agreement for first-level models. This Savage-Dickey test is a Bayesian analogue of the classical SPM-F and allows users to implement model comparison in a truly interactive manner. PMID:23533640

Inferring the photometric and size evolution of galaxies from image simulations. I. Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carassou, Sébastien; de Lapparent, Valérie; Bertin, Emmanuel; Le Borgne, Damien

2017-09-01

Context. Current constraints on models of galaxy evolution rely on morphometric catalogs extracted from multi-band photometric surveys. However, these catalogs are altered by selection effects that are difficult to model, that correlate in non trivial ways, and that can lead to contradictory predictions if not taken into account carefully. Aims: To address this issue, we have developed a new approach combining parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL) techniques and empirical modeling with realistic image simulations that reproduce a large fraction of these selection effects. This allows us to perform a direct comparison between observed and simulated images and to infer robust constraints on model parameters. Methods: We use a semi-empirical forward model to generate a distribution of mock galaxies from a set of physical parameters. These galaxies are passed through an image simulator reproducing the instrumental characteristics of any survey and are then extracted in the same way as the observed data. The discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is quantified, and minimized with a custom sampling process based on adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Results: Using synthetic data matching most of the properties of a Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey Deep field, we demonstrate the robustness and internal consistency of our approach by inferring the parameters governing the size and luminosity functions and their evolutions for different realistic populations of galaxies. We also compare the results of our approach with those obtained from the classical spectral energy distribution fitting and photometric redshift approach. Conclusions: Our pipeline infers efficiently the luminosity and size distribution and evolution parameters with a very limited number of observables (three photometric bands). When compared to SED fitting based on the same set of observables, our method yields results that are more accurate and free from systematic biases.

Obscuration-dependent Evolution of Active Galactic Nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchner, Johannes; Georgakakis, Antonis; Nandra, Kirpal; Brightman, Murray; Menzel, Marie-Luise; Liu, Zhu; Hsu, Li-Ting; Salvato, Mara; Rangel, Cyprian; Aird, James; Merloni, Andrea; Ross, Nicholas

2015-04-01

We aim to constrain the evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) as a function of obscuration using an X-ray-selected sample of ~2000 AGNs from a multi-tiered survey including the CDFS, AEGIS-XD, COSMOS, and XMM-XXL fields. The spectra of individual X-ray sources are analyzed using a Bayesian methodology with a physically realistic model to infer the posterior distribution of the hydrogen column density and intrinsic X-ray luminosity. We develop a novel non-parametric method that allows us to robustly infer the distribution of the AGN population in X-ray luminosity, redshift, and obscuring column density, relying only on minimal smoothness assumptions. Our analysis properly incorporates uncertainties from low count spectra, photometric redshift measurements, association incompleteness, and the limited sample size. We find that obscured AGNs with N H > 1022 cm-2 account for {77}+4-5% of the number density and luminosity density of the accretion supermassive black hole population with L X > 1043 erg s-1, averaged over cosmic time. Compton-thick AGNs account for approximately half the number and luminosity density of the obscured population, and {38}+8-7% of the total. We also find evidence that the evolution is obscuration dependent, with the strongest evolution around N H ≈ 1023 cm-2. We highlight this by measuring the obscured fraction in Compton-thin AGNs, which increases toward z ~ 3, where it is 25% higher than the local value. In contrast, the fraction of Compton-thick AGNs is consistent with being constant at ≈35%, independent of redshift and accretion luminosity. We discuss our findings in the context of existing models and conclude that the observed evolution is, to first order, a side effect of anti-hierarchical growth.

A Multivariate Quality Loss Function Approach for Optimization of Spinning Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Mitra, Ankan

2018-05-01

Recent advancements in textile industry have given rise to several spinning techniques, such as ring spinning, rotor spinning etc., which can be used to produce a wide variety of textile apparels so as to fulfil the end requirements of the customers. To achieve the best out of these processes, they should be utilized at their optimal parametric settings. However, in presence of multiple yarn characteristics which are often conflicting in nature, it becomes a challenging task for the spinning industry personnel to identify the best parametric mix which would simultaneously optimize all the responses. Hence, in this paper, the applicability of a new systematic approach in the form of multivariate quality loss function technique is explored for optimizing multiple quality characteristics of yarns while identifying the ideal settings of two spinning processes. It is observed that this approach performs well against the other multi-objective optimization techniques, such as desirability function, distance function and mean squared error methods. With slight modifications in the upper and lower specification limits of the considered quality characteristics, and constraints of the non-linear optimization problem, it can be successfully applied to other processes in textile industry to determine their optimal parametric settings.

Improvements in Sensible Heat-Flux Parametrization in the High-Resolution Regional Model (HRM) Through the Modified Treatment of the Roughness Length for Heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anurose, T. J.; Subrahamanyam, D. Bala

2013-06-01

We discuss the impact of the differential treatment of the roughness lengths for momentum and heat (z_{0m} and z_{0h}) in the flux parametrization scheme of the high-resolution regional model (HRM) for a heterogeneous terrain centred around Thiruvananthapuram, India (8.5°N, 76.9°E). The magnitudes of sensible heat flux ( H) obtained from HRM simulations using the original parametrization scheme differed drastically from the concurrent in situ observations. With a view to improving the performance of this parametrization scheme, two distinct modifications are incorporated: (1) In the first method, a constant value of 100 is assigned to the z_{0m}/z_{0h} ratio; (2) and in the second approach, this ratio is treated as a function of time. Both these modifications in the HRM model showed significant improvements in the H simulations for Thiruvananthapuram and its adjoining regions. Results obtained from the present study provide a first-ever comparison of H simulations using the modified parametrization scheme in the HRM model with in situ observations for the Indian coastal region, and suggest a differential treatment of z_{0m} and z_{0h} in the flux parametrization scheme.

Evaluation of a neutron spectrum from Bonner spheres measurements using a Bayesian parameter estimation combined with the traditional unfolding methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazrou, H.; Bezoubiri, F.

2018-07-01

In this work, a new program developed under MATLAB environment and supported by the Bayesian software WinBUGS has been combined to the traditional unfolding codes namely MAXED and GRAVEL, to evaluate a neutron spectrum from the Bonner spheres measured counts obtained around a shielded 241AmBe based-neutron irradiator located at a Secondary Standards Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL) at CRNA. In the first step, the results obtained by the standalone Bayesian program, using a parametric neutron spectrum model based on a linear superposition of three components namely: a thermal-Maxwellian distribution, an epithermal (1/E behavior) and a kind of a Watt fission and Evaporation models to represent the fast component, were compared to those issued from MAXED and GRAVEL assuming a Monte Carlo default spectrum. Through the selection of new upper limits for some free parameters, taking into account the physical characteristics of the irradiation source, of both considered models, good agreement was obtained for investigated integral quantities i.e. fluence rate and ambient dose equivalent rate compared to MAXED and GRAVEL results. The difference was generally below 4% for investigated parameters suggesting, thereby, the reliability of the proposed models. In the second step, the Bayesian results obtained from the previous calculations were used, as initial guess spectra, for the traditional unfolding codes, MAXED and GRAVEL to derive the solution spectra. Here again the results were in very good agreement, confirming the stability of the Bayesian solution.

Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials.

PubMed

de Oliveira, L A; da Silva, C P; Nuvunga, J J; da Silva, A Q; Balestre, M

2016-06-17

The additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and the genotype main effects and genotype x environment interaction (GGE) models stand out among the linear-bilinear models used in genotype x environment interaction studies. Despite the advantages of their use to describe genotype x environment (AMMI) or genotype and genotype x environment (GGE) interactions, these methods have known limitations that are inherent to fixed effects models, including difficulty in treating variance heterogeneity and missing data. Traditional biplots include no measure of uncertainty regarding the principal components. The present study aimed to apply the Bayesian approach to GGE biplot models and assess the implications for selecting stable and adapted genotypes. Our results demonstrated that the Bayesian approach applied to GGE models with non-informative priors was consistent with the traditional GGE biplot analysis, although the credible region incorporated into the biplot enabled distinguishing, based on probability, the performance of genotypes, and their relationships with the environments in the biplot. Those regions also enabled the identification of groups of genotypes and environments with similar effects in terms of adaptability and stability. The relative position of genotypes and environments in biplots is highly affected by the experimental accuracy. Thus, incorporation of uncertainty in biplots is a key tool for breeders to make decisions regarding stability selection and adaptability and the definition of mega-environments.

Bayesian Travel Time Inversion adopting Gaussian Process Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauerberger, S.; Holschneider, M.

2017-12-01

A major application in seismology is the determination of seismic velocity models. Travel time measurements are putting an integral constraint on the velocity between source and receiver. We provide insight into travel time inversion from a correlation-based Bayesian point of view. Therefore, the concept of Gaussian process regression is adopted to estimate a velocity model. The non-linear travel time integral is approximated by a 1st order Taylor expansion. A heuristic covariance describes correlations amongst observations and a priori model. That approach enables us to assess a proxy of the Bayesian posterior distribution at ordinary computational costs. No multi dimensional numeric integration nor excessive sampling is necessary. Instead of stacking the data, we suggest to progressively build the posterior distribution. Incorporating only a single evidence at a time accounts for the deficit of linearization. As a result, the most probable model is given by the posterior mean whereas uncertainties are described by the posterior covariance.As a proof of concept, a synthetic purely 1d model is addressed. Therefore a single source accompanied by multiple receivers is considered on top of a model comprising a discontinuity. We consider travel times of both phases - direct and reflected wave - corrupted by noise. Left and right of the interface are assumed independent where the squared exponential kernel serves as covariance.

N plus 2 Supersonic Concept Development and Systems Integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wedge, Harry R.; Bonet, John; Magee, Todd; Chen, Daniel; Hollowell, Steve; Kutzmann, Aaron; Mortlock, Alan; Stengle, Josh; Nelson, Chet; Adamson, Eric;

Non-parametric wall model and methods of identifying boundary conditions for moments in gas flow equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Meng; To, Quy-Dong; Léonard, Céline; Monchiet, Vincent

2018-03-01

In this paper, we use the molecular dynamics simulation method to study gas-wall boundary conditions. Discrete scattering information of gas molecules at the wall surface is obtained from collision simulations. The collision data can be used to identify the accommodation coefficients for parametric wall models such as Maxwell and Cercignani-Lampis scattering kernels. Since these scattering kernels are based on a limited number of accommodation coefficients, we adopt non-parametric statistical methods to construct the kernel to overcome these issues. Different from parametric kernels, the non-parametric kernels require no parameter (i.e. accommodation coefficients) and no predefined distribution. We also propose approaches to derive directly the Navier friction and Kapitza thermal resistance coefficients as well as other interface coefficients associated with moment equations from the non-parametric kernels. The methods are applied successfully to systems composed of CH4 or CO2 and graphite, which are of interest to the petroleum industry.

Applications of Bayesian spectrum representation in acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botts, Jonathan M.

This dissertation utilizes a Bayesian inference framework to enhance the solution of inverse problems where the forward model maps to acoustic spectra. A Bayesian solution to filter design inverts a acoustic spectra to pole-zero locations of a discrete-time filter model. Spatial sound field analysis with a spherical microphone array is a data analysis problem that requires inversion of spatio-temporal spectra to directions of arrival. As with many inverse problems, a probabilistic analysis results in richer solutions than can be achieved with ad-hoc methods. In the filter design problem, the Bayesian inversion results in globally optimal coefficient estimates as well as an estimate the most concise filter capable of representing the given spectrum, within a single framework. This approach is demonstrated on synthetic spectra, head-related transfer function spectra, and measured acoustic reflection spectra. The Bayesian model-based analysis of spatial room impulse responses is presented as an analogous problem with equally rich solution. The model selection mechanism provides an estimate of the number of arrivals, which is necessary to properly infer the directions of simultaneous arrivals. Although, spectrum inversion problems are fairly ubiquitous, the scope of this dissertation has been limited to these two and derivative problems. The Bayesian approach to filter design is demonstrated on an artificial spectrum to illustrate the model comparison mechanism and then on measured head-related transfer functions to show the potential range of application. Coupled with sampling methods, the Bayesian approach is shown to outperform least-squares filter design methods commonly used in commercial software, confirming the need for a global search of the parameter space. The resulting designs are shown to be comparable to those that result from global optimization methods, but the Bayesian approach has the added advantage of a filter length estimate within the same unified framework. The application to reflection data is useful for representing frequency-dependent impedance boundaries in finite difference acoustic simulations. Furthermore, since the filter transfer function is a parametric model, it can be modified to incorporate arbitrary frequency weighting and account for the band-limited nature of measured reflection spectra. Finally, the model is modified to compensate for dispersive error in the finite difference simulation, from the filter design process. Stemming from the filter boundary problem, the implementation of pressure sources in finite difference simulation is addressed in order to assure that schemes properly converge. A class of parameterized source functions is proposed and shown to offer straightforward control of residual error in the simulation. Guided by the notion that the solution to be approximated affects the approximation error, sources are designed which reduce residual dispersive error to the size of round-off errors. The early part of a room impulse response can be characterized by a series of isolated plane waves. Measured with an array of microphones, plane waves map to a directional response of the array or spatial intensity map. Probabilistic inversion of this response results in estimates of the number and directions of image source arrivals. The model-based inversion is shown to avoid ambiguities associated with peak-finding or inspection of the spatial intensity map. For this problem, determining the number of arrivals in a given frame is critical for properly inferring the state of the sound field. This analysis is effectively compression of the spatial room response, which is useful for analysis or encoding of the spatial sound field. Parametric, model-based formulations of these problems enhance the solution in all cases, and a Bayesian interpretation provides a principled approach to model comparison and parameter estimation. v

Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

PubMed

Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

2016-03-01

In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-parametric variational data assimilation for hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado-Montero, R.; Schwanenberg, D.; Krahe, P.; Helmke, P.; Klein, B.

2017-12-01

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly applied in flow forecasting systems to provide users with a better understanding of forecast uncertainty and consequently to take better-informed decisions. A common practice in probabilistic streamflow forecasting is to force deterministic hydrological model with an ensemble of numerical weather predictions. This approach aims at the representation of meteorological uncertainty but neglects uncertainty of the hydrological model as well as its initial conditions. Complementary approaches use probabilistic data assimilation techniques to receive a variety of initial states or represent model uncertainty by model pools instead of single deterministic models. This paper introduces a novel approach that extends a variational data assimilation based on Moving Horizon Estimation to enable the assimilation of observations into multi-parametric model pools. It results in a probabilistic estimate of initial model states that takes into account the parametric model uncertainty in the data assimilation. The assimilation technique is applied to the uppermost area of River Main in Germany. We use different parametric pools, each of them with five parameter sets, to assimilate streamflow data, as well as remotely sensed data from the H-SAF project. We assess the impact of the assimilation in the lead time performance of perfect forecasts (i.e. observed data as forcing variables) as well as deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from ECMWF. The multi-parametric assimilation shows an improvement of up to 23% for CRPS performance and approximately 20% in Brier Skill Scores with respect to the deterministic approach. It also improves the skill of the forecast in terms of rank histogram and produces a narrower ensemble spread.

A novel super-resolution camera model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Yi; Xu, Jie; Wang, Lin; Liu, Fei; Luo, Qiuhua; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Xiangli

2015-05-01

Aiming to realize super resolution(SR) to single image and video reconstruction, a super resolution camera model is proposed for the problem that the resolution of the images obtained by traditional cameras behave comparatively low. To achieve this function we put a certain driving device such as piezoelectric ceramics in the camera. By controlling the driving device, a set of continuous low resolution(LR) images can be obtained and stored instantaneity, which reflect the randomness of the displacements and the real-time performance of the storage very well. The low resolution image sequences have different redundant information and some particular priori information, thus it is possible to restore super resolution image factually and effectively. The sample method is used to derive the reconstruction principle of super resolution, which analyzes the possible improvement degree of the resolution in theory. The super resolution algorithm based on learning is used to reconstruct single image and the variational Bayesian algorithm is simulated to reconstruct the low resolution images with random displacements, which models the unknown high resolution image, motion parameters and unknown model parameters in one hierarchical Bayesian framework. Utilizing sub-pixel registration method, a super resolution image of the scene can be reconstructed. The results of 16 images reconstruction show that this camera model can increase the image resolution to 2 times, obtaining images with higher resolution in currently available hardware levels.

Stochastic Model of Seasonal Runoff Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Watada, Leslie M.

1986-03-01

Each year the National Weather Service and the Soil Conservation Service issue a monthly sequence of five (or six) categorical forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volume. To describe uncertainties in these forecasts for the purposes of optimal decision making, a stochastic model is formulated. It is a discrete-time, finite, continuous-space, nonstationary Markov process. Posterior densities of the actual runoff conditional upon a forecast, and transition densities of forecasts are obtained from a Bayesian information processor. Parametric densities are derived for the process with a normal prior density of the runoff and a linear model of the forecast error. The structure of the model and the estimation procedure are motivated by analyses of forecast records from five stations in the Snake River basin, from the period 1971-1983. The advantages of supplementing the current forecasting scheme with a Bayesian analysis are discussed.

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information. PMID:25938760

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

Super-resolution mapping using multi-viewing CHRIS/PROBA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, Manish; Kumar, Vinay

2016-04-01

High-spatial resolution Remote Sensing (RS) data provides detailed information which ensures high-definition visual image analysis of earth surface features. These data sets also support improved information extraction capabilities at a fine scale. In order to improve the spatial resolution of coarser resolution RS data, the Super Resolution Reconstruction (SRR) technique has become widely acknowledged which focused on multi-angular image sequences. In this study multi-angle CHRIS/PROBA data of Kutch area is used for SR image reconstruction to enhance the spatial resolution from 18 m to 6m in the hope to obtain a better land cover classification. Various SR approaches like Projection onto Convex Sets (POCS), Robust, Iterative Back Projection (IBP), Non-Uniform Interpolation and Structure-Adaptive Normalized Convolution (SANC) chosen for this study. Subjective assessment through visual interpretation shows substantial improvement in land cover details. Quantitative measures including peak signal to noise ratio and structural similarity are used for the evaluation of the image quality. It was observed that SANC SR technique using Vandewalle algorithm for the low resolution image registration outperformed the other techniques. After that SVM based classifier is used for the classification of SRR and data resampled to 6m spatial resolution using bi-cubic interpolation. A comparative analysis is carried out between classified data of bicubic interpolated and SR derived images of CHRIS/PROBA and SR derived classified data have shown a significant improvement of 10-12% in the overall accuracy. The results demonstrated that SR methods is able to improve spatial detail of multi-angle images as well as the classification accuracy.

Multivariate decoding of brain images using ordinal regression.

PubMed

Doyle, O M; Ashburner, J; Zelaya, F O; Williams, S C R; Mehta, M A; Marquand, A F

2013-11-01

Neuroimaging data are increasingly being used to predict potential outcomes or groupings, such as clinical severity, drug dose response, and transitional illness states. In these examples, the variable (target) we want to predict is ordinal in nature. Conventional classification schemes assume that the targets are nominal and hence ignore their ranked nature, whereas parametric and/or non-parametric regression models enforce a metric notion of distance between classes. Here, we propose a novel, alternative multivariate approach that overcomes these limitations - whole brain probabilistic ordinal regression using a Gaussian process framework. We applied this technique to two data sets of pharmacological neuroimaging data from healthy volunteers. The first study was designed to investigate the effect of ketamine on brain activity and its subsequent modulation with two compounds - lamotrigine and risperidone. The second study investigates the effect of scopolamine on cerebral blood flow and its modulation using donepezil. We compared ordinal regression to multi-class classification schemes and metric regression. Considering the modulation of ketamine with lamotrigine, we found that ordinal regression significantly outperformed multi-class classification and metric regression in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. However, for risperidone ordinal regression significantly outperformed metric regression but performed similarly to multi-class classification both in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. For the scopolamine data set, ordinal regression was found to outperform both multi-class and metric regression techniques considering the regional cerebral blood flow in the anterior cingulate cortex. Ordinal regression was thus the only method that performed well in all cases. Our results indicate the potential of an ordinal regression approach for neuroimaging data while providing a fully probabilistic framework with elegant approaches for model selection. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Genome-wide scan for genes involved in bipolar affective disorder in 70 European families ascertained through a bipolar type I early-onset proband: supportive evidence for linkage at 3p14

PubMed Central

Etain, Bruno; Mathieu, Flavie; Rietschel, Marcella; Maier, Wolfgang; Albus, Margot; Mckeon, Patrick; Roche, S.; Kealey, Carmel; Blackwood, Douglas; Muir, Walter; Bellivier, Franc; Henry, C.; Dina, Christian; Gallina, Sophie; Gurling, H.; Malafosse, Alain; Preisig, Martin; Ferrero, François; Cichon, Sven; Schumacher, J.; Ohlraun, Stéphanie; Borrmann-Hassenbach, M.; Propping, Peter; Abou Jamra, Rami; Schulze, Thomas G.; Marusic, Andrej; Dernovsek, Mojca Z.; Giros, Bruno; Bourgeron, Thomas; Lemainque, Arnaud; Bacq, Delphine; Betard, Christine; Charon, Céline; Nöthen, Markus M.; Lathrop, Mark; Leboyer, Marion

2006-01-01

Summary Preliminary studies suggested that age at onset (AAO) may help to define homogeneous bipolar affective disorder (BPAD) subtypes. This candidate symptom approach might be useful to identify vulnerability genes. Thus, the probability of detecting major disease-causing genes might be increased by focusing on families with early-onset BPAD type I probands. This study was conducted as part of the European Collaborative Study of Early Onset BPAD (France, Germany, Ireland, Scotland, Switzerland, England, Slovenia). We performed a genome-wide search with 384 microsatellite markers using non parametric linkage analysis in 87 sib-pairs ascertained through an early-onset BPAD type I proband (age at onset of 21 years or below). Non parametric multi-point analysis suggested eight regions of linkage with p-values <0.01 (2p21, 2q14.3, 3p14, 5q33, 7q36, 10q23, 16q23 and 20p12). The 3p14 region showed the most significant linkage (genome-wide p-value estimated over 10.000 simulated replicates of 0.015 [0.01–0.02]). After genome-wide search analysis, we performed additional linkage analyses with increase marker density using markers in four regions suggestive for linkage and having an information contents lower than 75% (3p14, 10q23, 16q23 and 20p12). For these regions, the information content improved by about 10%. In chromosome 3, the non parametric linkage score increased from 3.51 to 3.83. This study is the first to use early onset bipolar type I probands in an attempt to increase sample homogeneity. These preliminary findings require confirmation in independent panels of families. PMID:16534504

The Chandra Source Catalog: X-ray Aperture Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashyap, Vinay; Primini, F. A.; Glotfelty, K. J.; Anderson, C. S.; Bonaventura, N. R.; Chen, J. C.; Davis, J. E.; Doe, S. M.; Evans, I. N.; Evans, J. D.; Fabbiano, G.; Galle, E. C.; Gibbs, D. G., II; Grier, J. D.; Hain, R.; Hall, D. M.; Harbo, P. N.; He, X.; Houck, J. C.; Karovska, M.; Lauer, J.; McCollough, M. L.; McDowell, J. C.; Miller, J. B.; Mitschang, A. W.; Morgan, D. L.; Nichols, J. S.; Nowak, M. A.; Plummer, D. A.; Refsdal, B. L.; Rots, A. H.; Siemiginowska, A. L.; Sundheim, B. A.; Tibbetts, M. S.; van Stone, D. W.; Winkelman, S. L.; Zografou, P.

2009-09-01

The Chandra Source Catalog (CSC) represents a reanalysis of the entire ACIS and HRC imaging observations over the 9-year Chandra mission. We describe here the method by which fluxes are measured for detected sources. Source detection is carried out on a uniform basis, using the CIAO tool wavdetect. Source fluxes are estimated post-facto using a Bayesian method that accounts for background, spatial resolution effects, and contamination from nearby sources. We use gamma-function prior distributions, which could be either non-informative, or in case there exist previous observations of the same source, strongly informative. The current implementation is however limited to non-informative priors. The resulting posterior probability density functions allow us to report the flux and a robust credible range on it.

Improved dynamical scaling analysis using the kernel method for nonequilibrium relaxation.

PubMed

Echinaka, Yuki; Ozeki, Yukiyasu

2016-10-01

The dynamical scaling analysis for the Kosterlitz-Thouless transition in the nonequilibrium relaxation method is improved by the use of Bayesian statistics and the kernel method. This allows data to be fitted to a scaling function without using any parametric model function, which makes the results more reliable and reproducible and enables automatic and faster parameter estimation. Applying this method, the bootstrap method is introduced and a numerical discrimination for the transition type is proposed.

Enhancement of optic cup detection through an improved vessel kink detection framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Damon W. K.; Liu, Jiang; Tan, Ngan Meng; Zhang, Zhuo; Lu, Shijian; Lim, Joo Hwee; Li, Huiqi; Wong, Tien Yin

2010-03-01

Glaucoma is a leading cause of blindness. The presence and extent of progression of glaucoma can be determined if the optic cup can be accurately segmented from retinal images. In this paper, we present a framework which improves the detection of the optic cup. First, a region of interest is obtained from the retinal fundus image, and a pallor-based preliminary cup contour estimate is determined. Patches are then extracted from the ROI along this contour. To improve the usability of the patches, adaptive methods are introduced to ensure the patches are within the optic disc and to minimize redundant information. The patches are then analyzed for vessels by an edge transform which generates pixel segments of likely vessel candidates. Wavelet, color and gradient information are used as input features for a SVM model to classify the candidates as vessel or non-vessel. Subsequently, a rigourous non-parametric method is adopted in which a bi-stage multi-resolution approach is used to probe and localize the location of kinks along the vessels. Finally, contenxtual information is used to fuse pallor and kink information to obtain an enhanced optic cup segmentation. Using a batch of 21 images obtained from the Singapore Eye Research Institute, the new method results in a 12.64% reduction in the average overlap error against a pallor only cup, indicating viable improvements in the segmentation and supporting the use of kinks for optic cup detection.

Two-octave spanning single pump parametric amplification at 1550 nm in a host lead-silicate binary multi-clad microstructure fiber: Influence of multi-order dispersion engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Sudip K.; Khan, Saba N.; Chaudhuri, Partha Roy

2014-12-01

An ultra-wide 1646 nm (1084-2730 nm), continuous-wave single pump parametric amplification spanning from near-infrared to short-wave infrared band (NIR-SWIR) in a host lead-silicate based binary multi-clad microstructure fiber (BMMF) is analyzed and reported. This ultra-broad band (widest reported to date) parametric amplification with gain more than 10 dB is theoretically achieved by a combination of low input pump power source ~7 W and a short-length of ~70 cm of nonlinear-BMMF through accurately engineered multi-order dispersion coefficients. A highly efficient theoretical formulation based on four-wave-mixing (FWM) is worked out to determine fiber's chromatic dispersion (D) profile which is used to optimise the gain-bandwidth and ripple of the parametric gain profile. It is seen that by appropriately controlling the higher-order dispersion coefficient (up-to sixth order), a great enhancement in the gain-bandwidth (2-3 times) can be achieved when operated very close to zero-dispersion wavelength (ZDW) in the anomalous dispersion regime. Moreover, the proposed theoretical model can predict the maximum realizable spectral width and the required pump-detuning (w.r.t ZDW) of any advanced complex microstructured fiber. Our thorough investigation of the wide variety of broadband gain spectra obtained as an integral part of this research work opens up the way for realizing amplification in the region (SWIR) located far from the pump (NIR) where good amplifiers currently do not exist.

Classifying environmentally significant urban land uses with satellite imagery.

PubMed

Park, Mi-Hyun; Stenstrom, Michael K

2008-01-01

We investigated Bayesian networks to classify urban land use from satellite imagery. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM(+)) images were used for the classification in two study areas: (1) Marina del Rey and its vicinity in the Santa Monica Bay Watershed, CA and (2) drainage basins adjacent to the Sweetwater Reservoir in San Diego, CA. Bayesian networks provided 80-95% classification accuracy for urban land use using four different classification systems. The classifications were robust with small training data sets with normal and reduced radiometric resolution. The networks needed only 5% of the total data (i.e., 1500 pixels) for sample size and only 5- or 6-bit information for accurate classification. The network explicitly showed the relationship among variables from its structure and was also capable of utilizing information from non-spectral data. The classification can be used to provide timely and inexpensive land use information over large areas for environmental purposes such as estimating stormwater pollutant loads.

Measurement of the photon statistics and the noise figure of a fiber-optic parametric amplifier.

PubMed

Voss, Paul L; Tang, Renyong; Kumar, Prem

2003-04-01

We report measurement of the noise statistics of spontaneous parametric fluorescence in a fiber parametric amplifier with single-mode, single-photon resolution. We employ optical homodyne tomography for this purpose, which also provides a self-calibrating measurement of the noise figure of the amplifier. The measured photon statistics agree with quantum-mechanical predictions, and the amplifier's noise figure is found to be almost quantum limited.

Apparent cosmic acceleration from Type Ia supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dam, Lawrence H.; Heinesen, Asta; Wiltshire, David L.

2017-11-01

Parameters that quantify the acceleration of cosmic expansion are conventionally determined within the standard Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) model, which fixes spatial curvature to be homogeneous. Generic averages of Einstein's equations in inhomogeneous cosmology lead to models with non-rigidly evolving average spatial curvature, and different parametrizations of apparent cosmic acceleration. The timescape cosmology is a viable example of such a model without dark energy. Using the largest available supernova data set, the JLA catalogue, we find that the timescape model fits the luminosity distance-redshift data with a likelihood that is statistically indistinguishable from the standard spatially flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology by Bayesian comparison. In the timescape case cosmic acceleration is non-zero but has a marginal amplitude, with best-fitting apparent deceleration parameter, q_{0}=-0.043^{+0.004}_{-0.000}. Systematic issues regarding standardization of supernova light curves are analysed. Cuts of data at the statistical homogeneity scale affect light-curve parameter fits independent of cosmology. A cosmological model dependence of empirical changes to the mean colour parameter is also found. Irrespective of which model ultimately fits better, we argue that as a competitive model with a non-FLRW expansion history, the timescape model may prove a useful diagnostic tool for disentangling selection effects and astrophysical systematics from the underlying expansion history.

Enhanced PET resolution by combining pinhole collimation and coincidence detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiFilippo, Frank P.

2015-10-01

Spatial resolution of clinical PET scanners is limited by detector design and photon non-colinearity. Although dedicated small animal PET scanners using specialized high-resolution detectors have been developed, enhancing the spatial resolution of clinical PET scanners is of interest as a more available alternative. Multi-pinhole 511 keV SPECT is capable of high spatial resolution but requires heavily shielded collimators to avoid significant background counts. A practical approach with clinical PET detectors is to combine multi-pinhole collimation with coincidence detection. In this new hybrid modality, there are three locations associated with each event, namely those of the two detected photons and the pinhole aperture. These three locations over-determine the line of response and provide redundant information that is superior to coincidence detection or pinhole collimation alone. Multi-pinhole collimation provides high resolution and avoids non-colinearity error but is subject to collimator penetration and artifacts from overlapping projections. However the coincidence information, though at lower resolution, is valuable for determining whether the photon passed near a pinhole within the cone acceptance angle and for identifying through which pinhole the photon passed. This information allows most photons penetrating through the collimator to be rejected and avoids overlapping projections. With much improved event rejection, a collimator with minimal shielding may be used, and a lightweight add-on collimator for high resolution imaging is feasible for use with a clinical PET scanner. Monte Carlo simulations were performed of a 18F hot rods phantom and a 54-pinhole unfocused whole-body mouse collimator with a clinical PET scanner. Based on coincidence information and pinhole geometry, events were accepted or rejected, and pinhole-specific crystal-map projections were generated. Tomographic images then were reconstructed using a conventional pinhole SPECT algorithm. Hot rods of 1.4 mm diameter were resolved easily in a simulated phantom. System sensitivity was 0.09% for a simulated 70-mm line source corresponding to the NEMA NU-4 mouse phantom. Higher resolution is expected with further optimization of pinhole design, and higher sensitivity is expected with a focused and denser pinhole configuration. The simulations demonstrate high spatial resolution and feasibility of small animal imaging with an add-on multi-pinhole collimator for a clinical PET scanner. Further work is needed to develop geometric calibration and quantitative data corrections and, eventually, to construct a prototype device and produce images with physical phantoms.

Non-Gaussian Multi-resolution Modeling of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, M.; Paul, D.; Lee, T. C. M.; Matsuo, T.

2016-12-01

The most dynamic coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere occurs in the Earth's polar atmosphere. Our objective is to model scale-dependent stochastic characteristics of high-latitude ionospheric electric fields that originate from solar wind magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions. The Earth's high-latitude ionospheric electric field exhibits considerable variability, with increasing non-Gaussian characteristics at decreasing spatio-temporal scales. Accurately representing the underlying stochastic physical process through random field modeling is crucial not only for scientific understanding of the energy, momentum and mass exchanges between the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, but also for modern technological systems including telecommunication, navigation, positioning and satellite tracking. While a lot of efforts have been made to characterize the large-scale variability of the electric field in the context of Gaussian processes, no attempt has been made so far to model the small-scale non-Gaussian stochastic process observed in the high-latitude ionosphere. We construct a novel random field model using spherical needlets as building blocks. The double localization of spherical needlets in both spatial and frequency domains enables the model to capture the non-Gaussian and multi-resolutional characteristics of the small-scale variability. The estimation procedure is computationally feasible due to the utilization of an adaptive Gibbs sampler. We apply the proposed methodology to the computational simulation output from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) magnetosphere model. Our non-Gaussian multi-resolution model results in characterizing significantly more energy associated with the small-scale ionospheric electric field variability in comparison to Gaussian models. By accurately representing unaccounted-for additional energy and momentum sources to the Earth's upper atmosphere, our novel random field modeling approach will provide a viable remedy to the current numerical models' systematic biases resulting from the underestimation of high-latitude energy and momentum sources.

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

2017-12-01

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior under varied global and local scale climatic influences from the developed BHMM.

Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

Bayesian Non-Stationary Index Gauge Modeling of Gridded Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, A.; Bracken, C.; Caldwell, J.; Balaji, R.; Funk, C. C.

2017-12-01

We propose a Bayesian non-stationary model to generate watershed scale gridded estimates of extreme precipitation return levels. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset is used to obtain gridded seasonal precipitation extremes over the Taylor Park watershed in Colorado for the period 1981-2016. For each year, grid cells within the Taylor Park watershed are aggregated to a representative "index gauge," which is input to the model. Precipitation-frequency curves for the index gauge are estimated for each year, using climate variables with significant teleconnections as proxies. Such proxies enable short-term forecasting of extremes for the upcoming season. Disaggregation ratios of the index gauge to the grid cells within the watershed are computed for each year and preserved to translate the index gauge precipitation-frequency curve to gridded precipitation-frequency maps for select return periods. Gridded precipitation-frequency maps are of the same spatial resolution as CHIRPS (0.05° x 0.05°). We verify that the disaggregation method preserves spatial coherency of extremes in the Taylor Park watershed. Validation of the index gauge extreme precipitation-frequency method consists of ensuring extreme value statistics are preserved on a grid cell basis. To this end, a non-stationary extreme precipitation-frequency analysis is performed on each grid cell individually, and the resulting frequency curves are compared to those produced by the index gauge disaggregation method.

Integrated fMRI Preprocessing Framework Using Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Slice-Wise Motion

PubMed Central

Pinsard, Basile; Boutin, Arnaud; Doyon, Julien; Benali, Habib

2018-01-01

Functional MRI acquisition is sensitive to subjects' motion that cannot be fully constrained. Therefore, signal corrections have to be applied a posteriori in order to mitigate the complex interactions between changing tissue localization and magnetic fields, gradients and readouts. To circumvent current preprocessing strategies limitations, we developed an integrated method that correct motion and spatial low-frequency intensity fluctuations at the level of each slice in order to better fit the acquisition processes. The registration of single or multiple simultaneously acquired slices is achieved online by an Iterated Extended Kalman Filter, favoring the robust estimation of continuous motion, while an intensity bias field is non-parametrically fitted. The proposed extraction of gray-matter BOLD activity from the acquisition space to an anatomical group template space, taking into account distortions, better preserves fine-scale patterns of activity. Importantly, the proposed unified framework generalizes to high-resolution multi-slice techniques. When tested on simulated and real data the latter shows a reduction of motion explained variance and signal variability when compared to the conventional preprocessing approach. These improvements provide more stable patterns of activity, facilitating investigation of cerebral information representation in healthy and/or clinical populations where motion is known to impact fine-scale data. PMID:29755312

Integrated fMRI Preprocessing Framework Using Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Slice-Wise Motion.

PubMed

Pinsard, Basile; Boutin, Arnaud; Doyon, Julien; Benali, Habib

2018-01-01

Functional MRI acquisition is sensitive to subjects' motion that cannot be fully constrained. Therefore, signal corrections have to be applied a posteriori in order to mitigate the complex interactions between changing tissue localization and magnetic fields, gradients and readouts. To circumvent current preprocessing strategies limitations, we developed an integrated method that correct motion and spatial low-frequency intensity fluctuations at the level of each slice in order to better fit the acquisition processes. The registration of single or multiple simultaneously acquired slices is achieved online by an Iterated Extended Kalman Filter, favoring the robust estimation of continuous motion, while an intensity bias field is non-parametrically fitted. The proposed extraction of gray-matter BOLD activity from the acquisition space to an anatomical group template space, taking into account distortions, better preserves fine-scale patterns of activity. Importantly, the proposed unified framework generalizes to high-resolution multi-slice techniques. When tested on simulated and real data the latter shows a reduction of motion explained variance and signal variability when compared to the conventional preprocessing approach. These improvements provide more stable patterns of activity, facilitating investigation of cerebral information representation in healthy and/or clinical populations where motion is known to impact fine-scale data.

The Implications of 3D Thermal Structure on 1D Atmospheric Retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecic, Jasmina; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian; Greene, Thomas

2017-10-01

Using the atmospheric structure from a 3D global radiation-hydrodynamic simulation of HD 189733b and the open-source Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code, we investigate the difference between the secondary-eclipse temperature structure produced with a 3D simulation and the best-fit 1D retrieved model. Synthetic data are generated by integrating the 3D models over the Spitzer, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the James Web Space Telescope (JWST) bandpasses, covering the wavelength range between 1 and 11 μm where most spectroscopically active species have pronounced features. Using the data from different observing instruments, we present detailed comparisons between the temperature-pressure profiles recovered by BART and those from the 3D simulations. We calculate several averages of the 3D thermal structure and explore which particular thermal profile matches the retrieved temperature structure. We implement two temperature parameterizations that are commonly used in retrieval to investigate different thermal profile shapes. To assess which part of the thermal structure is best constrained by the data, we generate contribution functions for our theoretical model and each of our retrieved models. Our conclusions are strongly affected by the spectral resolution of the instruments included, their wavelength coverage, and the number of data points combined. We also see some limitations in each of the temperature parametrizations, as they are not able to fully match the complex curvatures that are usually produced in hydrodynamic simulations. The results show that our 1D retrieval is recovering a temperature and pressure profile that most closely matches the arithmetic average of the 3D thermal structure. When we use a higher resolution, more data points, and a parametrized temperature profile that allows more flexibility in the middle part of the atmosphere, we find a better match between the retrieved temperature and pressure profile and the arithmetic average. The Spitzer and HST simulated observations sample deep parts of the planetary atmosphere and provide fewer constraints on the temperature and pressure profile, while the JWST observations sample the middle part of the atmosphere, providing a good match with the middle and most complex part of the arithmetic average of the 3D temperature structure.

Reconstruction of calmodulin single-molecule FRET states, dye interactions, and CaMKII peptide binding by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

2013-08-01

We analyzed single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data.

Reconstruction of Calmodulin Single-Molecule FRET States, Dye-Interactions, and CaMKII Peptide Binding by MultiNest and Classic Maximum Entropy

PubMed Central

DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

2013-01-01

We analyze single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data. PMID:24223465

Reconstruction of Calmodulin Single-Molecule FRET States, Dye-Interactions, and CaMKII Peptide Binding by MultiNest and Classic Maximum Entropy.

PubMed

Devore, Matthew S; Gull, Stephen F; Johnson, Carey K

2013-08-30

We analyze single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca 2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data.

MultiNest: Efficient and Robust Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.; Bridges, M.

2011-09-01

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called MultiNest. This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior samples from distributions that may contain multiple modes and pronounced (curving) degeneracies in high dimensions. The developments presented here lead to further substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness, as compared to the original algorithm presented in Feroz & Hobson (2008), which itself significantly outperformed existing MCMC techniques in a wide range of astrophysical inference problems. The accuracy and economy of the MultiNest algorithm is demonstrated by application to two toy problems and to a cosmological inference problem focusing on the extension of the vanilla LambdaCDM model to include spatial curvature and a varying equation of state for dark energy. The MultiNest software is fully parallelized using MPI and includes an interface to CosmoMC. It will also be released as part of the SuperBayeS package, for the analysis of supersymmetric theories of particle physics, at this http URL.

Investigation of Multi-Input Multi-Output Robust Control Methods to Handle Parametric Uncertainties in Autopilot Design.

PubMed

Kasnakoğlu, Coşku

2016-01-01

Some level of uncertainty is unavoidable in acquiring the mass, geometry parameters and stability derivatives of an aerial vehicle. In certain instances tiny perturbations of these could potentially cause considerable variations in flight characteristics. This research considers the impact of varying these parameters altogether. This is a generalization of examining the effects of particular parameters on selected modes present in existing literature. Conventional autopilot designs commonly assume that each flight channel is independent and develop single-input single-output (SISO) controllers for every one, that are utilized in parallel for actual flight. It is demonstrated that an attitude controller built like this can function flawlessly on separate nominal cases, but can become unstable with a perturbation no more than 2%. Two robust multi-input multi-output (MIMO) design strategies, specifically loop-shaping and μ-synthesis are outlined as potential substitutes and are observed to handle large parametric changes of 30% while preserving decent performance. Duplicating the loop-shaping procedure for the outer loop, a complete flight control system is formed. It is confirmed through software-in-the-loop (SIL) verifications utilizing blade element theory (BET) that the autopilot is capable of navigation and landing exposed to high parametric variations and powerful winds.

Investigation of Multi-Input Multi-Output Robust Control Methods to Handle Parametric Uncertainties in Autopilot Design

PubMed Central

Kasnakoğlu, Coşku

2016-01-01

Some level of uncertainty is unavoidable in acquiring the mass, geometry parameters and stability derivatives of an aerial vehicle. In certain instances tiny perturbations of these could potentially cause considerable variations in flight characteristics. This research considers the impact of varying these parameters altogether. This is a generalization of examining the effects of particular parameters on selected modes present in existing literature. Conventional autopilot designs commonly assume that each flight channel is independent and develop single-input single-output (SISO) controllers for every one, that are utilized in parallel for actual flight. It is demonstrated that an attitude controller built like this can function flawlessly on separate nominal cases, but can become unstable with a perturbation no more than 2%. Two robust multi-input multi-output (MIMO) design strategies, specifically loop-shaping and μ-synthesis are outlined as potential substitutes and are observed to handle large parametric changes of 30% while preserving decent performance. Duplicating the loop-shaping procedure for the outer loop, a complete flight control system is formed. It is confirmed through software-in-the-loop (SIL) verifications utilizing blade element theory (BET) that the autopilot is capable of navigation and landing exposed to high parametric variations and powerful winds. PMID:27783706

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Non-parametric directionality analysis - Extension for removal of a single common predictor and application to time series.

PubMed

Halliday, David M; Senik, Mohd Harizal; Stevenson, Carl W; Mason, Rob

2016-08-01

The ability to infer network structure from multivariate neuronal signals is central to computational neuroscience. Directed network analyses typically use parametric approaches based on auto-regressive (AR) models, where networks are constructed from estimates of AR model parameters. However, the validity of using low order AR models for neurophysiological signals has been questioned. A recent article introduced a non-parametric approach to estimate directionality in bivariate data, non-parametric approaches are free from concerns over model validity. We extend the non-parametric framework to include measures of directed conditional independence, using scalar measures that decompose the overall partial correlation coefficient summatively by direction, and a set of functions that decompose the partial coherence summatively by direction. A time domain partial correlation function allows both time and frequency views of the data to be constructed. The conditional independence estimates are conditioned on a single predictor. The framework is applied to simulated cortical neuron networks and mixtures of Gaussian time series data with known interactions. It is applied to experimental data consisting of local field potential recordings from bilateral hippocampus in anaesthetised rats. The framework offers a non-parametric approach to estimation of directed interactions in multivariate neuronal recordings, and increased flexibility in dealing with both spike train and time series data. The framework offers a novel alternative non-parametric approach to estimate directed interactions in multivariate neuronal recordings, and is applicable to spike train and time series data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian performance metrics and small system integration in recent homeland security and defense applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jannson, Tomasz; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Patton, Edward; Pradhan, Ranjit; Shih, Min-Yi; Walter, Kevin; Savant, Gajendra; Shie, Rick; Forrester, Thomas

2010-04-01

In this paper, Bayesian inference is applied to performance metrics definition of the important class of recent Homeland Security and defense systems called binary sensors, including both (internal) system performance and (external) CONOPS. The medical analogy is used to define the PPV (Positive Predictive Value), the basic Bayesian metrics parameter of the binary sensors. Also, Small System Integration (SSI) is discussed in the context of recent Homeland Security and defense applications, emphasizing a highly multi-technological approach, within the broad range of clusters ("nexus") of electronics, optics, X-ray physics, γ-ray physics, and other disciplines.

Quantitative evaluation of treatment related changes on multi-parametric MRI after laser interstitial thermal therapy of prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanath, Satish; Toth, Robert; Rusu, Mirabela; Sperling, Dan; Lepor, Herbert; Futterer, Jurgen; Madabhushi, Anant

2013-03-01

Laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) has recently shown great promise as a treatment strategy for localized, focal, low-grade, organ-confined prostate cancer (CaP). Additionally, LITT is compatible with multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MP-MRI) which in turn enables (1) high resolution, accurate localization of ablation zones on in vivo MP-MRI prior to LITT, and (2) real-time monitoring of temperature changes in vivo via MR thermometry during LITT. In spite of rapidly increasing interest in the use of LITT for treating low grade, focal CaP, very little is known about treatment-related changes following LITT. There is thus a clear need for studying post-LITT changes via MP-MRI and consequently to attempt to (1) quantitatively identify MP-MRI markers predictive of favorable treatment response and longer term patient outcome, and (2) identify which MP-MRI markers are most sensitive to post-LITT changes in the prostate. In this work, we present the first attempt at examining focal treatment-related changes on a per-voxel basis (high resolution) via quantitative evaluation of MR parameters pre- and post-LITT. A retrospective cohort of MP-MRI data comprising both pre- and post- LITT T2-weighted (T2w) and diffusion-weighted (DWI) acquisitions was considered, where DWI MRI yielded an Apparent Diffusion Co-efficient (ADC) map. A spatially constrained affine registration scheme was implemented to first bring T2w and ADC images into alignment within each of the pre- and post-LITT acquisitions, following which the pre- and post-LITT acquisitions were aligned. Pre- and post-LITT MR parameters (T2w intensity, ADC value) were then standardized to a uniform scale (to correct for intensity drift) and then quantified via the raw intensity values as well as via texture features derived from T2w MRI. In order to quantify imaging changes as a result of LITT, absolute differences were calculated between the normalized pre- and post-LITT MRI parameters. Quantitatively combining the ADC and T2w MRI parameters enabled construction of an integrated MP-MRI difference map that was highly indicative of changes specific to the LITT ablation zone. Preliminary quantitative comparison of the changes in different MR parameters indicated that T2w texture may be highly sensitive as well as specific in identifying changes within the ablation zone pre- and post-LITT. Visual evaluation of the differences in T2w texture features pre- and post-LITT also appeared to provide an indication of LITT-related effects such as edema. Our preliminary results thus indicate great potential for non-invasive MP-MRI imaging markers for determining focal treatment related changes, and hence long- and short-term patient outcome.

Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

2010-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

Model selection and assessment for multi­-species occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fitzpatrick, Ryan M.

2016-01-01

While multi-species occupancy models (MSOMs) are emerging as a popular method for analyzing biodiversity data, formal checking and validation approaches for this class of models have lagged behind. Concurrent with the rise in application of MSOMs among ecologists, a quiet regime shift is occurring in Bayesian statistics where predictive model comparison approaches are experiencing a resurgence. Unlike single-species occupancy models that use integrated likelihoods, MSOMs are usually couched in a Bayesian framework and contain multiple levels. Standard model checking and selection methods are often unreliable in this setting and there is only limited guidance in the ecological literature for this class of models. We examined several different contemporary Bayesian hierarchical approaches for checking and validating MSOMs and applied these methods to a freshwater aquatic study system in Colorado, USA, to better understand the diversity and distributions of plains fishes. Our findings indicated distinct differences among model selection approaches, with cross-validation techniques performing the best in terms of prediction.

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

Multi-Watt femtosecond optical parametric master oscillator power amplifier at 43 MHz.

PubMed

Mörz, Florian; Steinle, Tobias; Steinmann, Andy; Giessen, Harald

2015-09-07

We present a high repetition rate mid-infrared optical parametric master oscillator power amplifier (MOPA) scheme, which is tunable from 1370 to 4120nm. Up to 4.3W average output power are generated at 1370nm, corresponding to a photon conversion efficiency of 78%. Bandwidths of 6 to 12nm with pulse durations between 250 and 400fs have been measured. Strong conversion saturation over the whole signal range is observed, resulting in excellent power stability. The system consists of a fiber-feedback optical parametric oscillator that seeds an optical parametric power amplifier. Both systems are pumped by the same Yb:KGW femtosecond oscillator.

Bayesian model for matching the radiometric measurements of aerospace and field ocean color sensors.

PubMed

Salama, Mhd Suhyb; Su, Zhongbo

2010-01-01

A Bayesian model is developed to match aerospace ocean color observation to field measurements and derive the spatial variability of match-up sites. The performance of the model is tested against populations of synthesized spectra and full and reduced resolutions of MERIS data. The model derived the scale difference between synthesized satellite pixel and point measurements with R(2) > 0.88 and relative error < 21% in the spectral range from 400 nm to 695 nm. The sub-pixel variabilities of reduced resolution MERIS image are derived with less than 12% of relative errors in heterogeneous region. The method is generic and applicable to different sensors.

A trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model assessment using frequency-domain electromagnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minsley, Burke J.

2011-01-01

A meaningful interpretation of geophysical measurements requires an assessment of the space of models that are consistent with the data, rather than just a single, ‘best’ model which does not convey information about parameter uncertainty. For this purpose, a trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for assessing frequencydomain electromagnetic (FDEM) data acquired from airborne or ground-based systems. By sampling the distribution of models that are consistent with measured data and any prior knowledge, valuable inferences can be made about parameter values such as the likely depth to an interface, the distribution of possible resistivity values as a function of depth and non-unique relationships between parameters. The trans-dimensional aspect of the algorithm allows the number of layers to be a free parameter that is controlled by the data, where models with fewer layers are inherently favoured, which provides a natural measure of parsimony and a significant degree of flexibility in parametrization. The MCMC algorithm is used with synthetic examples to illustrate how the distribution of acceptable models is affected by the choice of prior information, the system geometry and configuration and the uncertainty in the measured system elevation. An airborne FDEM data set that was acquired for the purpose of hydrogeological characterization is also studied. The results compare favorably with traditional least-squares analysis, borehole resistivity and lithology logs from the site, and also provide new information about parameter uncertainty necessary for model assessment.

Search for quasi-periodic signals in magnetar giant flares. Bayesian inspection of SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumpe, Daniel; Gabler, Michael; Steininger, Theo; Enßlin, Torsten A.

2018-02-01

Quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) discovered in the decaying tails of giant flares of magnetars are believed to be torsional oscillations of neutron stars. These QPOs have a high potential to constrain properties of high-density matter. In search for quasi-periodic signals, we study the light curves of the giant flares of SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14, with a non-parametric Bayesian signal inference method called D3PO. The D3PO algorithm models the raw photon counts as a continuous flux and takes the Poissonian shot noise as well as all instrument effects into account. It reconstructs the logarithmic flux and its power spectrum from the data. Using this fully noise-aware method, we do not confirm previously reported frequency lines at ν ≳ 17 Hz because they fall into the noise-dominated regime. However, we find two new potential candidates for oscillations at 9.2 Hz (SGR 1806-20) and 7.7 Hz (SGR 1900+14). If these are real and the fundamental magneto-elastic oscillations of the magnetars, current theoretical models would favour relatively weak magnetic fields B̅ 6× 1013-3 × 1014 G (SGR 1806-20) and a relatively low shear velocity inside the crust compared to previous findings. Data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/610/A61

Inverse stochastic-dynamic models for high-resolution Greenland ice core records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Chekroun, Mickael D.; Liu, Honghu; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Svensson, Anders; Bigler, Matthias; Ghil, Michael

2017-12-01

Proxy records from Greenland ice cores have been studied for several decades, yet many open questions remain regarding the climate variability encoded therein. Here, we use a Bayesian framework for inferring inverse, stochastic-dynamic models from δ18O and dust records of unprecedented, subdecadal temporal resolution. The records stem from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP), and we focus on the time interval 59-22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the dynamical characteristics of both the δ18O and dust proxy records, including the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, as well as statistical properties such as probability density functions, waiting times and power spectra, with no need for any external forcing. The crucial ingredients for capturing these properties are (i) high-resolution training data, (ii) cubic drift terms, (iii) nonlinear coupling terms between the δ18O and dust time series, and (iv) non-Markovian contributions that represent short-term memory effects.

Improved source inversion from joint measurements of translational and rotational ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S.; Bernauer, M.; Reinwald, M.; Hadziioannou, C.; Igel, H.

2017-12-01

Waveform inversion for seismic point (moment tensor) and kinematic sources is a standard procedure. However, especially in the local and regional distances a lack of appropriate velocity models, the sparsity of station networks, or a low signal-to-noise ratio combined with more complex waveforms hamper the successful retrieval of reliable source solutions. We assess the potential of rotational ground motion recordings to increase the resolution power and reduce non-uniquenesses for point and kinematic source solutions. Based on synthetic waveform data, we perform a Bayesian (i.e. probabilistic) inversion. Thus, we avoid the subjective selection of the most reliable solution according the lowest misfit or other constructed criterion. In addition, we obtain unbiased measures of resolution and possible trade-offs. Testing different earthquake mechanisms and scenarios, we can show that the resolution of the source solutions can be improved significantly. Especially depth dependent components show significant improvement. Next to synthetic data of station networks, we also tested sparse-network and single station cases.

Bayesian Just-So Stories in Psychology and Neuroscience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowers, Jeffrey S.; Davis, Colin J.

2012-01-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak.…

Teaching Bayesian Statistics in a Health Research Methodology Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Thabane, Lehana

2009-01-01

Despite the appeal of Bayesian methods in health research, they are not widely used. This is partly due to a lack of courses in Bayesian methods at an appropriate level for non-statisticians in health research. Teaching such a course can be challenging because most statisticians have been taught Bayesian methods using a mathematical approach, and…

Preliminary Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews creating a preliminary multi-variable cost model for the contract costs of making a space telescope. There is discussion of the methodology for collecting the data, definition of the statistical analysis methodology, single variable model results, testing of historical models and an introduction of the multi variable models.

Multi-resolutional shape features via non-Euclidean wavelets: Applications to statistical analysis of cortical thickness

PubMed Central

Kim, Won Hwa; Singh, Vikas; Chung, Moo K.; Hinrichs, Chris; Pachauri, Deepti; Okonkwo, Ozioma C.; Johnson, Sterling C.

2014-01-01

Statistical analysis on arbitrary surface meshes such as the cortical surface is an important approach to understanding brain diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Surface analysis may be able to identify specific cortical patterns that relate to certain disease characteristics or exhibit differences between groups. Our goal in this paper is to make group analysis of signals on surfaces more sensitive. To do this, we derive multi-scale shape descriptors that characterize the signal around each mesh vertex, i.e., its local context, at varying levels of resolution. In order to define such a shape descriptor, we make use of recent results from harmonic analysis that extend traditional continuous wavelet theory from the Euclidean to a non-Euclidean setting (i.e., a graph, mesh or network). Using this descriptor, we conduct experiments on two different datasets, the Alzheimer’s Disease NeuroImaging Initiative (ADNI) data and images acquired at the Wisconsin Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (W-ADRC), focusing on individuals labeled as having Alzheimer’s disease (AD), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy controls. In particular, we contrast traditional univariate methods with our multi-resolution approach which show increased sensitivity and improved statistical power to detect a group-level effects. We also provide an open source implementation. PMID:24614060

Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

2014-12-01

African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

Multivariate modelling of prostate cancer combining magnetic resonance derived T2, diffusion, dynamic contrast-enhanced and spectroscopic parameters.

PubMed

Riches, S F; Payne, G S; Morgan, V A; Dearnaley, D; Morgan, S; Partridge, M; Livni, N; Ogden, C; deSouza, N M

2015-05-01

The objectives are determine the optimal combination of MR parameters for discriminating tumour within the prostate using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and to compare model accuracy with that of an experienced radiologist. Multiparameter MRIs in 24 patients before prostatectomy were acquired. Tumour outlines from whole-mount histology, T2-defined peripheral zone (PZ), and central gland (CG) were superimposed onto slice-matched parametric maps. T2, Apparent Diffusion Coefficient, initial area under the gadolinium curve, vascular parameters (K(trans),Kep,Ve), and (choline+polyamines+creatine)/citrate were compared between tumour and non-tumour tissues. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined sensitivity and specificity at spectroscopic voxel resolution and per lesion, and LDA determined the optimal multiparametric model for identifying tumours. Accuracy was compared with an expert observer. Tumours were significantly different from PZ and CG for all parameters (all p < 0.001). Area under the ROC curve for discriminating tumour from non-tumour was significantly greater (p < 0.001) for the multiparametric model than for individual parameters; at 90 % specificity, sensitivity was 41 % (MRSI voxel resolution) and 59 % per lesion. At this specificity, an expert observer achieved 28 % and 49 % sensitivity, respectively. The model was more accurate when parameters from all techniques were included and performed better than an expert observer evaluating these data. • The combined model increases diagnostic accuracy in prostate cancer compared with individual parameters • The optimal combined model includes parameters from diffusion, spectroscopy, perfusion, and anatominal MRI • The computed model improves tumour detection compared to an expert viewing parametric maps.

Digital multi-channel stabilization of four-mode phase-sensitive parametric multicasting.

PubMed

Liu, Lan; Tong, Zhi; Wiberg, Andreas O J; Kuo, Bill P P; Myslivets, Evgeny; Alic, Nikola; Radic, Stojan

2014-07-28

Stable four-mode phase-sensitive (4MPS) process was investigated as a means to enhance two-pump driven parametric multicasting conversion efficiency (CE) and signal to noise ratio (SNR). Instability of multi-beam, phase sensitive (PS) device that inherently behaves as an interferometer, with output subject to ambient induced fluctuations, was addressed theoretically and experimentally. A new stabilization technique that controls phases of three input waves of the 4MPS multicaster and maximizes CE was developed and described. Stabilization relies on digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) specifically was developed to control pump phases to guarantee stable 4MPS operation that is independent of environmental fluctuations. The technique also controls a single (signal) input phase to optimize the PS-induced improvement of the CE and SNR. The new, continuous-operation DPLL has allowed for fully stabilized PS parametric broadband multicasting, demonstrating CE improvement over 20 signal copies in excess of 10 dB.

Hierarchical Object-based Image Analysis approach for classification of sub-meter multispectral imagery in Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, C.; Nagol, J. R.; Tao, X.; Anand, A.; Dempewolf, J.

2015-12-01

Increasing agricultural production while at the same time preserving the environment has become a challenging task. There is a need for new approaches for use of multi-scale and multi-source remote sensing data as well as ground based measurements for mapping and monitoring crop and ecosystem state to support decision making by governmental and non-governmental organizations for sustainable agricultural development. High resolution sub-meter imagery plays an important role in such an integrative framework of landscape monitoring. It helps link the ground based data to more easily available coarser resolution data, facilitating calibration and validation of derived remote sensing products. Here we present a hierarchical Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) approach to classify sub-meter imagery. The primary reason for choosing OBIA is to accommodate pixel sizes smaller than the object or class of interest. Especially in non-homogeneous savannah regions of Tanzania, this is an important concern and the traditional pixel based spectral signature approach often fails. Ortho-rectified, calibrated, pan sharpened 0.5 meter resolution data acquired from DigitalGlobe's WorldView-2 satellite sensor was used for this purpose. Multi-scale hierarchical segmentation was performed using multi-resolution segmentation approach to facilitate the use of texture, neighborhood context, and the relationship between super and sub objects for training and classification. eCognition, a commonly used OBIA software program, was used for this purpose. Both decision tree and random forest approaches for classification were tested. The Kappa index agreement for both algorithms surpassed the 85%. The results demonstrate that using hierarchical OBIA can effectively and accurately discriminate classes at even LCCS-3 legend.

Religion and the Unmaking of Prejudice toward Muslims: Evidence from a Large National Sample

PubMed Central

Shaver, John H.; Troughton, Geoffrey; Sibley, Chris G.; Bulbulia, Joseph A.

2016-01-01

In the West, anti-Muslim sentiments are widespread. It has been theorized that inter-religious tensions fuel anti-Muslim prejudice, yet previous attempts to isolate sectarian motives have been inconclusive. Factors contributing to ambiguous results are: (1) failures to assess and adjust for multi-level denomination effects; (2) inattention to demographic covariates; (3) inadequate methods for comparing anti-Muslim prejudice relative to other minority group prejudices; and (4) ad hoc theories for the mechanisms that underpin prejudice and tolerance. Here we investigate anti-Muslim prejudice using a large national sample of non-Muslim New Zealanders (N = 13,955) who responded to the 2013 New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study. We address previous shortcomings by: (1) building Bayesian multivariate, multi-level regression models with denominations modeled as random effects; (2) including high-resolution demographic information that adjusts for factors known to influence prejudice; (3) simultaneously evaluating the relative strength of anti-Muslim prejudice by comparing it to anti-Arab prejudice and anti-immigrant prejudice within the same statistical model; and (4) testing predictions derived from the Evolutionary Lag Theory of religious prejudice and tolerance. This theory predicts that in countries such as New Zealand, with historically low levels of conflict, religion will tend to increase tolerance generally, and extend to minority religious groups. Results show that anti-Muslim and anti-Arab sentiments are confounded, widespread, and substantially higher than anti-immigrant sentiments. In support of the theory, the intensity of religious commitments was associated with a general increase in tolerance toward minority groups, including a poorly tolerated religious minority group: Muslims. Results clarify religion’s power to enhance tolerance in peaceful societies that are nevertheless afflicted by prejudice. PMID:26959976