Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p < 0.1). These results suggest that the elemental signals provide a seasonal moisture record for Southern Arizona. We use the record to examine the frequency and timing of extreme droughts in the region and compare the speleothem record's frequency domain characteristics with other regional moisture records and with climate model output. The speleothem record demonstrates strong low-frequency variability with pronounced multi-decadal dry periods, a feature notably lacking in drought metrics from simulations of the last millennium. We also examine the seasonal SW precipitation response to modes of climate variability and external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

The combined influence of Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on central Mexico since the early 1600s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jungjae; Byrne, Roger; Böhnel, Harald

2017-04-01

Periodic droughts have been one of the most serious environmental issues in central Mexico since the earliest times. The impacts of future droughts are likely to become even more severe as the current global warming trend increases potential evaporation and moisture deficits. A full understanding of the mechanism underlying climate variability is imperative to narrow the uncertainty about future droughts and predict water availability. The climatic complexity generated by the combined influence of both Atlantic and Pacific forcings, however, causes considerable difficulty in interpreting central Mexican climate records. Also, the lack of high-resolution information regarding the climate in the recent past makes it difficult to clearly understand current drought mechanisms. Our new high-resolution δ18 O record from Hoya Rincon de Parangueo in central Mexico provides useful information on climate variations since the early 1600s. According to our results, the central Mexican climate has been predominantly controlled by the combined influence of the 20-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the 70-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, the AMO probably lost much of its influence in central Mexico in the early 20th century and the PDO has mostly driven climate change since. Marked dryness was mostly associated with co-occurrence of highly positive PDO and negative AMO between ∼1600 and 1900.

Drought variation of western Chinese Loess Plateau since 1568 and its linkages with droughts in western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.; Li, Jinbao; Zhou, Feifei; Guo, Guoyang; Dong, Zhipeng; Li, Yingjun

2017-12-01

Understanding long-term drought variations in the past can help to evaluate ongoing and future hydroclimate change in the arid western Chinese Loess Plateau (WCLP), a region with increasing demand for water resources due to the increasing population and socioeconomic activities. Here we present a new tree-ring chronology inform the WCLP, which shows coherent interannual variations with tree-ring chronologies from 7 neighboring areas across the WCLP, suggesting a common regional climate control over tree growth. However, considerable differences are observed among their interdecadal variations, which are likely due to growth disturbances at interdecadal timescales. To deal with this issue, we use a frequency based method to develop a composite tree-ring chronology from 401 tree-ring series from these 8 sites, which shows more pronounced interdecadal variability than a chronology developed using traditional methods. The composite tree-ring chronology is used to reconstruct the annual precipitation from previous August to current July from 1568 to 2012, extending about 50 years longer than the previous longest tree-ring reconstruction from the region. The driest epoch of our reconstruction is found in the 1920s-1930s, which matches well with droughts recorded in historical documents. Over the past four centuries, a strong resemblance between drought variability in the WCLP and western North America (WNA) is evident on multidecadal timescales, but this relationship breaks down on timescales shorter than about 50 years.

Connecting medieval megadroughts and surface climate in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; Anderson, D. M.; Hakim, G. J.; Horlick, K. A.; Noone, D.; Perkins, W. A.; Steig, E. J.; Tardif, R.

2016-12-01

The North American Drought Atlas shows severe, long-lasting droughts during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Because drought frequency and severity over the coming century is an area of vital interest, better understanding the causes of these historic droughts is crucial. A variety of research has suggested that a La Niña state was important for producing medieval megadroughts [1], and other work has indicated the potential roles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [2] and internal atmospheric variability [3]. Correlations between drought and large-scale climate patterns also exist in the instrumental record [4], but understanding these relationships is far from complete. To investigate these relationships further, a data assimilation approach is employed. Proxy records - including tree rings, corals, and ice cores - are used to constrain climate states over the Common Era. By using general circulation model (GCM) output to quantify the covariances in the climate system, climate can be constrained not just at proxy sites but for all covarying locations and climate fields. Multiple GCMs will be employed to offset the limitations of imperfect model physics. This "Last Millennium Reanalysis" will be used to quantify relationships between North American medieval megadroughts and sea surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific. 1. Cook, E. R., et al., Earth-Sci. Rev. 81, 93 (2007). 2. Oglesby, R., et al., Global Planet. Change 84-85, 56 (2012). 3. Stevenson, S., et al., J. Climate 28, 1865 (2015). 4. Cook, B. I., et al., J. Climate 27, 383 (2014).

Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

2006-01-01

Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Increasing climate whiplash in 21st century California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, D. L.; Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.; Hall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Temperate "Mediterranean" climate regimes across the globe are particularly susceptible to wide swings between drought and flood—of which California's rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012-2016 to extreme wetness during 2016-2017 provides a dramatic example. The wide-ranging human and environmental impacts of this recent "climate whiplash" event in a highly-populated, economically critical, and biodiverse region highlight the importance of understanding weather and climate extremes at both ends of the hydroclimatic spectrum. Previous studies have examined the potential contribution of anthropogenic warming to recent California extremes, but findings to date have been mixed and primarily drought-focused. Here, we use specific historical California flood and drought events as thresholds for quantifying long-term changes in precipitation extremes using a large ensemble of multi-decadal climate model simulations (CESM-LENS). We find that greenhouse gas emissions are already responsible for a detectable increase in both wet and dry extremes across portions of California, and that increasing 21st century "climate whiplash" will likely yield large increases in the frequency of both rapid "dry-to-wet" transitions and severe flood events over a wide range of timescales. This projected intensification of California's hydrological cycle would seriously challenge the region's existing water storage, conveyance, and flood control infrastructure—even absent large changes in mean precipitation.

Forced and Internal Multi-Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and their Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.

2017-12-01

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), a basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature warming or cooling pattern varying on decadal and longer time scales, is one of the most important climate variations in the Atlantic basin. The AMV has shown to be associated with significant climate impacts regionally and globally, from Atlantic hurricane activities, frequency and severity of droughts across North America, as well as rainfall anomalies across the African Sahel and northeast Brazil. Despite the important impacts of the AMV, its mechanisms are not completely understood. In particular, it is not clear how much of the historical Atlantic SST fluctuations were forced by anthropogenic sources such as greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling, versus driven internally by changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the Atlantic. Using climate models such as the NCAR large ensemble simulations, we were able to successfully separate the forced and internally generated North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies through a signal-to-noise maximizing Empirical Orthogonal Function (S/N EOF) analysis method. Two forced modes were identified with one representing a hemispherical symmetric mode and one asymmetric mode. The symmetric mode largely represents the greenhouse forced component while the asymmetric mode resembles the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. When statistically removing both of the forced modes, the residual multidecadal Atlantic SST variability shows a very similar structure as the AMV in the preindustrial simulation. The distinct climate impacts of each of these modes are also identified and the implications and challenges for decadal climate prediction will be discussed.

The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

2011-12-01

The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop failure. This can be viewed as a special case of agricultural drought. Therefore, improving climate information around the time of planting can play a key role in agricultural risk management. Rainfall onset indices have been calculated for stations across Senegal. The problem is climatically challenging because the physical processes that impact rainfall onset appear to span aspects normally studied separately: weather system character, propagating intraseasonal features, and large-scale sea-surface temperature influence. We present aspects of all these, and ideas on how to combine them into seamless information to support agriculture.

Evidence of multidecadal climate variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature-proxy record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; DeLong, K.L.; Richey, J.N.; Quinn, T.M.

2009-01-01

A comparison of a Mg/Ca-based sea-surface temperature (SST)-anomaly record from the northern Gulf of Mexico, a calculated index of variability in observed North Atlantic SST known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and a tree-ring reconstruction of the AMO contain similar patterns of variation over the last 110 years. Thus, the multidecadal variability observed in the instrumental record is present in the tree-ring and Mg/Ca proxy data. Frequency analysis of the Gulf of Mexico SST record and the tree-ring AMO reconstruction from 1550 to 1990 found similar multidecadal-scale periodicities (???30-60 years). This multidecadal periodicity is about half the observed (60-80 years) variability identified in the AMO for the 20th century. The historical records of hurricane landfalls reveal increased landfalls in the Gulf Coast region during time intervals when the AMO index is positive (warmer SST), and decreased landfalls when the AMO index is negative (cooler SST). Thus, we conclude that alternating intervals of high and low hurricane landfall occurrences may continue on multidecadal timescales along the northern Gulf Coast. However, given the short length of the instrumental record, the actual frequency and stability of the AMO are uncertain, and additional AMO proxy records are needed to establish the character of multidecadal-scale SST variability in the North Atlantic. ?? 2009 US Government.

Spatially-Explicit Holocene Drought Reconstructions in Amazonian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMichael, C.; Bush, M. B.

2014-12-01

Climate models predict increasing drought in Amazonian forests over the next century, and the synergy of drought and fire may lead to forest dieback. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are two primary drivers of Amazonian drought, and each process has a spatially distinct manifestation in the Basin. Paleoecological reconstructions can contextualize the forest response to past drought periods. Stalagmite and lake sediment records have documented that the early- to mid-Holocene, i.e. 10,000 - 5000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), was among the driest periods of the last 100,000 years in western Amazonia. Climatic conditions became wetter and more similar to the modern climate over the last 4000 cal yr BP, and fires rarely occurred in the absence of human activity. Yet there are currently no drought and fire reconstructions that examine the spatially explicit patterns of drought during the Holocene. Here, we present regional drought histories from southwestern and northeastern sections Amazonia for the last 10,000 years that document the drought-fire dynamics resulting from both climatic processes. Our reconstructions were based on a compilation of dated soil charcoal fragments (N= 291) collected from within Amazonia sensu stricto, which were analyzed by region using summed probability analysis. The compiled soil charcoal dates contained limited evidence of fire over the last 10,000 years in some regions. Fire frequency rose markedly across the Basin, however, during the last 2000 years, indicating an increased human presence. Fire probabilities, and thus droughts, had similar increasing trajectories between southwestern and northeastern Amazonia from 1500-1100 cal yr BP, which decoupled from 1100-740 cal yr BP, and then regained synchronicity from 740-500 cal yr BP. Fire probability declined markedly after 500 yr cal BP, coincident with European arrival to the Americas. Native populations were decimated, and fire probabilities returned to similar levels before the rise 2000 years ago. These results suggested that the synergy of humans plus drought have played a large role in historical fire regimes in Amazonian forests for the last 2000 years.

Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Eddy, Robert G.

2006-01-01

Evidence from woodrat middens and tree rings at Dutch John Mountain (DJM) in northeastern Utah reveal spatiotemporal patterns of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) colonization and expansion in the past millennium. The DJM population, a northern outpost of pinyon, was established by long-distance dispersal (~40 km). Growth of this isolate was markedly episodic and tracked multidecadal variability in precipitation. Initial colonization occurred by AD 1246, but expansion was forestalled by catastrophic drought (1250–1288), which we speculate produced extensive mortality of Utah Juniper (Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little), the dominant tree at DJM for the previous ~8700 years. Pinyon then quickly replaced juniper across DJM during a few wet decades (1330–1339 and 1368–1377). Such alternating decadal-scale droughts and pluvial events play a key role in structuring plant communities at the landscape to regional level. These decadal-length precipitation anomalies tend to be regionally coherent and can synchronize physical and biological processes across large areas. Vegetation forecast models must incorporate these temporal and geographic aspects of climate variability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change.

Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

2017-01-01

Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

California's Drought - Stress test for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, J. R.

2014-12-01

The current California drought is in its third dry years, with this year being the third driest years in a 106-year record. This drought occurs at a time when urban, agricultural, and environmental water demands have never been greater. This drought has revealed the importance of more quantitative evaluation and methods for water assessment and management. All areas of water and environmental management are likely to become increasingly stressed, and have essentially drought-like conditions, in the future, as California's urban, agricultural, and environmental demands continue to expand and as the climate changes. In the historical past, droughts have pre-viewed stresses developing in the future and helped focus policy-makers, the public, and stakeholders on preparing for these developing future conditions. Multi-decade water management strategies are often galvinized by drought. Irrigation was galvanized by California droughts in the 1800s, reservoir systems by the 1928-32 drought, urban water conservation by the 1976-77 drought, and water markets by the 1988-92 drought. With each drought, demands for tighter accounting, rights, and management have increased. This talk reviews the prospects and challenges for increased development and use of water data and systems analysis in the service of human and environmental water demands in California's highly decentralized water management system, and the prospects if these challenges are not more successfully addressed.

The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

PubMed

Yan, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R

2017-11-22

Observed Atlantic major hurricane frequency has exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability since the 1940s. However, the cause of this variability is debated. Using observations and a coupled earth system model (GFDL-ESM2G), here we show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005-2015 is associated with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) inferred from ocean observations. Directly observed North Atlantic sulfate aerosol optical depth has not increased (but shows a modest decline) over this period, suggesting the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005-2015 is not likely due to recent changes in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Instead, we find coherent multidecadal variations involving the inferred AMOC and Atlantic major hurricane frequency, along with indices of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and inverted vertical wind shear. Our results provide evidence for an important role of the AMOC in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Ocean-atmosphere interactions as drivers of mid-to-late Holocene rapid climate changes: Evidence from high-resolution stalagmite records at DeSoto Caverns, Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharon, Paul; Dhungana, Rajesh

2017-08-01

Oxygen and carbon isotope time-series derived from an actively growing aragonitic stalagmite in DeSoto Caverns exhibit with unusual clarity rapid hydroclimate changes in the mid-to-late Holocene. Data consist of 1884 δ18O and δ13C determinations whose chronology is anchored on 35 230Th/234U absolute dates in the interval 6.0-1.1 cal ka BP. Exceptional 18O and 13C-enrichments centered at 4.8 ± 0.14 cal ka BP likely represent the imprints of a severe drought. Isotope cycles from 4.7 to 1.3 cal ka BP, exhibit a dominant periodicity of 68 ± 4 yrs. A gradual cooling trend of ∼0.6 °C/103 yrs is attributed to a declining seasonal contrast in insolation. The synchronicity of the mega-drought in the Southeast US with the (1) termination of the African Humid Period; (ii) abrupt reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water production, and (iii) rapid sea-ice expansion in the polar regions of both Hemispheres testifies to the global extent and rapidity of the "5 ka" event and points to the North Atlantic Deep Water variability as the likely controlling factor. The multidecadal cycles are consistent with alternating dry and wet summers occurring during a long-term switch in the seasonal rainfall amount dominance from winter to summer. The periodic summer droughts in the Southeast US support climate models that predict profound hydroclimate changes in the late Holocene governed by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The relatively short and rapid hydroclimate phase transitions documented in this study introduce a complication in the correlation of late Holocene drought events that had significant societal impacts.

Sunshine duration reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on tree-ring width and its relationship to volcanic eruptions.

PubMed

Sun, Changfeng; Liu, Yu; Song, Huiming; Cai, Qiufang; Li, Qiang; Wang, Lu; Mei, Ruochen; Fang, Congxi

2018-07-01

Sunshine is as essential as temperature and precipitation for tree growth, but sunshine duration reconstructions based on tree rings have not yet been conducted in China. In this study, we presented a 497-year sunshine duration reconstruction for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau using a width chronology of Abies forrestii from the central Hengduan Mountains. The reconstruction accounted for 53.5% of the variance in the observed sunshine during the period of 1961-2013 based on a stable and reliable linear regression. This reconstructed sunshine duration contained six sunny periods (1630-1656, 1665-1697, 1731-1781, 1793-1836, 1862-1895 and 1910-1992) and seven cloudy periods (1522-1629, 1657-1664, 1698-1730, 1782-1792, 1837-1861, 1896-1909 and 1993-2008) at a low-frequency scale. There was an increasing trend from the 16th century to the late 18th and early 19th centuries and a decreasing trend from the mid-19th to the early 21st centuries. Sunshine displayed inverse patterns to the local Palmer drought severity index on a multidecadal scale, indicating that this region likely experienced droughts under more sunshine conditions. The decrease in sunshine particularly in recent decades was mainly due to increasing atmospheric anthropogenic aerosols. In terms of the interannual variations in sunshine, weak sunshine years matched well with years of major volcanic eruptions. The significant cycles of the 2- to 7-year, 20.0-year and 35.2-year durations as well as the 60.2-year and 78.7-year durations related to the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation suggested that the variation in sunshine duration in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was possibly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms Underlying Early Medieval Droughts in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

Multidecadal drought during the early Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 800-1200 CE) in Mesoamerica has been implicated in the demise of many pre-Columbian societies, including the Maya. The mechanisms behind these droughts, however, are poorly understood. Researchers most often interpret these records as tracking the mean position of the ITCZ, with a southward shifted ITCZ resulting in Mesoamerican drought. This is puzzling, however, because our dynamical understanding of the ITCZ and its role in interhemispheric heat transport would suggest a more northward shifted ITCZ during the MCA. Here, we evaluate two hypotheses to reconcile existing proxies and dynamics. First, we assess whether evidence for dry conditions during the MCA is robust across multiple Mesoamerican proxy records, focusing on the influence of radiometric dating uncertainty on estimates of drought timing. Second, we use control simulations of CCSM4 and HadCM3, as well as a broader synthesis of oceanic and terrestrial proxies, to explore the mechanisms responsible for long-term drought in Mesoamerica. Ultimately, we suggest that a temporary slowdown of the AMOC, either internally or externally forced, combined with local and regional land surface feedbacks can explain these droughts in Mesoamerica.

Baseflow response to climate variability induced droughts in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarmistha; Srivastava, Puneet; Abebe, Ash; Mitra, Subhasis

2015-09-01

Droughts have been a major factor leading to the Tri-State Water Wars in the southeastern United States. One of the primary issues related to the conflict is the reduction in baseflow levels in the Flint River during droughts. This affects the availability of freshwater resources to support the endangered mussel species in the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers and threatens the shellfish industry in the Apalachicola Bay. Study of large-scale climate phenomena as well as the interactions of interannual with decadal and multidecadal oceanic-atmospheric phenomena can provide valuable information regarding regional climatic conditions such as droughts and their impact on water resources. This study was conducted to quantify the impacts of climate variability cycles on baseflow levels in the Flint River. The individual and coupled impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on baseflow were quantified. The non-parametric Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedure was used to provide a robust test of the significance of interactions between the phases of ENSO-PDO, ENSO-AMO and ENSO-NAO baseflows. Simple-main effect comparisons were also performed using the JRFit model to estimate significant difference between the positive and negative phase baseflows of PDO, AMO and NAO associated with El Niño or La Niña phases. The results indicate that the phases of ENSO, AMO and NAO significantly affect baseflows in the Flint River. Interaction tests showed that the PDO and AMO phases modulate ENSO phase baseflows. La Niña associated with positive phases of PDO and AMO resulted in greater decrease in baseflow levels of approximately 28% and 33%, respectively. However, La Niña associated with negative phase of AMO showed above normal baseflows. The results illustrate the importance of coupled analyses of climate variability by providing a better understanding of the severity of droughts and their impact on baseflows. The results obtained from this study can be used by water managers in the region as a guide for the issuance of drought severity-based water restrictions.

Floods, droughts and anomalous weather during the late Spörer minimum in Central Europe: the examples of the Carpathian Basin, the Eastern Alpine Region and Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Enzi, Silvia; Rohr, Christian

2017-04-01

Central Europe suffered from a major multi-decadal environmental crisis from the early 1470s onwards. The turn of the 15th-16th centuries was characterised by an unusually high number of stress factors related to large-scale climate variability, amongst others locally manifested in the great increase of weather-related extremes such as the multiannual droughts of the 1470s, with further significant drought periods in the 1490s and 1500s; the extraordinary high frequency of hard winters in the 1470s-1490s, and a major flood-rich period from the late 1470s to the mid-1520s. From the human impact side, the recurrent crisis was greatly intensified by biological hazards such as plague epidemic cycles and devastating multi-annual locust invasions that gravely affected our investigated region. Wars and war-expenses further deepened this crisis. In our presentation we provide an overview of flood peaks on major Italian (e.g. Po, Adige) and Eastern-Alpine (e.g. Danube, Salzach, Traun), Carpathian-Basin (Danube, Danube catchment, Tisza catchment) rivers and river catchments, with special emphasis on great flood years (e.g. 1485, 1499, 1501, 1508 etc.). Further topics of the discussion are droughts and multiannual dry periods, together with related environmental problems (e.g. locust invasions, bad harvests) such as the one in the 1470s, the early-mid 1490s, 1503 and 1506-1507. The third major group of weather extremes in the period consists of hard winters. This and other extreme weather events, together with their (potential) socio-economic effects comprise the final major topic of discussion of the paper.

Late Holocene Drought Variability in Eastern North America: Evidence From the Peatland Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, R. K.; Jackson, S. T.

2006-12-01

Tree-ring based drought chronologies from semi-arid regions of western North America have revealed substantial variability in water balance during the past 1000 years, including episodes of persistent drought more severe than any observed during historical times. Delimitation of regional and continental-scale footprints of these past drought events, including their spatial patterning in humid regions where moisture-sensitive paleoclimate records are scarce, is critical to understanding their dynamics and potential causes. Ombrotrophic peatlands are scattered throughout humid regions of North America at mid-latitudes and represent an underutilized source of multidecadal-scale information on past moisture variations. We are developing a spatial network of peatland-derived paleoclimate and paleoecological records in eastern North America, in an effort to 1) determine whether large, decadal to multidecadal droughts of the past several thousand years were spatially and temporally coherent, 2) assess whether the magnitude of past drought events was sufficient to force ecological change in terrestrial ecosystems, and 3) assess the underlying mechanisms and dynamics of widespread drought in North America. We have completed water-level reconstructions based on testate-amoeba assemblages from two ombrotrophic peatlands in mid-continental North America, Hole in the Bog (NC Minnesota) and Minden Bog (SE Michgian). We also have developed reconstructions from three Sphagnum-dominated kettle peatlands, South Rhody Peatland (NC Michigan), Hornet Peatland (NW Wisconsin), and Irwin Smith Peatland (NE Michigan). Although these kettle peatlands are not truly ombrotrophic, high-magnitude water-table fluctuations should still be attributable to climate variability, and we use these records to supplement our interpretation of regional climate history. Our results indicate that all high-magnitude fluctuations in water balance were spatially extensive, affecting bog-surface moisture conditions throughout the western Great Lakes region. These include a large drought event during the late 16th century and a series of widespread drought events between 1900-1600 BP and 1100- 700 BP. The highest magnitude droughts of the last 2000 years occurred during an interval roughly consistent with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), with individual drought events centered on 1000 BP, 800 BP, and 700 BP. These droughts were associated with major ecological changes, including abrupt changes in vegetation and fire regime. Tree-ring records from the western United States also document a series of extensive and high-magnitude drought events during this time period, suggesting these droughts affected a large portion of mid-latitude North America. Similarly widespread drought during the last 100 years has been linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent ocean basins, particularly an anomalously warm North Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific, and an anomalously cold Tropical Pacific. We hypothesize that the widespread droughts apparent in our bog records were related to amplification of a similar spatial mode of moisture variability. Comparison with available proxy SST records provides some support for this hypothesis, although a more extensive network of terrestrial hydroclimate records, derived using consistent methods and proxies, needs to be used in conjunction with the developing network of proxy SST records to fully test this hypothesis.

Climatic variability in the eastern United States over the past millenium from Chesapeake Bay sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T.; Willard, D.; Karlsen, A.; Ishman, S.; Verardo, S.; McGeehin, J.; Kerhin, R.; Holmes, C.; Colman, S.; Zimmerman, A.

2000-01-01

Salinity oscillations caused by multidecadal climatic variability had major impacts on the Chesapeake Bay estuarine ecosystem during the past 1000 yr. Microfossils from sediments dated by radiometry (14C, 137Cs, 210Pb) and pollen stratigraphy indicate that salinity in mesohaline regions oscillated 10-15 ppt during periods of extreme drought (low fresh-water discharge) and wet climate (high discharge). During the past 500 yr, 14 wet-dry cycles occurred, including sixteenth and early seventeenth century megadroughts that exceeded twentieth century droughts in their severity. These droughts correspond to extremely dry climate also recorded in North American tree-ring records and by early colonists. Wet periods occurred every ~60-70 yr, began abruptly, lasted <20 yr, and had mean annual rainfall ~25%-30% and fresh-water discharge ~40%-50% greater than during droughts. A shift toward wetter regional climate occurred in the early nineteenth century, lowering salinity and compounding the effects of agricultural land clearance on bay ecosystems.

Precipitation history and ecosystem response to multidecadal precipitation variability in the Mojave Desert region, 1893-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, R.; Webb, R.H.; Longpre, C.I.

2006-01-01

Precipitation varied substantially in the Mojave Desert through the 20th century in a manner broadly similar to the other warm North American deserts. Episodes of drought and prolonged dry conditions (1893-1904, ca. 1942-1975, and 1999-present) alternated with relatively wet periods (1905-ca. 1941 and ca. 1976-1998), probably because of global-scale climate fluctuations. These are the El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation that affects interannual climate and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that evidently causes decadal-scale variability such as prolonged dry and wet episodes. Studies done in the late 20th century demonstrate that precipitation fluctuations affected populations of perennial vegetation, annuals, and small herbivores. Landscape rephotography reveals that several species, particularly creosote bush, increased in size and density during the ca. 1976-1998 wet period. A brief, intense drought from 1989 to 1991 and the ongoing drought caused widespread mortality of certain species; for example, chenopods and perennial grasses suffered up to 100% mortality. Drought pruning, the shedding of above-ground biomass to reduce carbon allocation, increased substantially during drought. Overall, drought had the greatest influence on the Mojave Desert ecosystem. ?? 2006.

Spatiotemporal Variability of the Meteorological Drought in Romania using the Standardized Precipitation Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheval, Sorin; Busuioc, Aristita; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Birsan, Marius-Victor

2013-04-01

Drought events occur over any geographical area, and may impact severely the environment and society. In terms of economic losses, droughts are one of the major natural hazards affecting Romania, so that the topic has been constantly approached. In general, the climatic projections over the 21st century display increasing temperatures and very likely declining summer precipitation (Busuioc et al., 2010), probably causing better drought conditions. This study examines the variability of the droughts in Romania, aiming to characterize the droughts intensity, durations and frequency (a), to identify spatial and temporal patterns (b), trends (c), and potential triggering factors (d). Besides, we consider comparing the performance of different instances of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993), such as time scale and probability distribution functions (gamma and Pearson type III), for retrieving drought characteristics. Homogenous monthly precipitation amounts from 98 weather stations run by the Romanian Meteorological Administration covering the period 1961-2010 were the primary data for calculating 1, 3, 6, and 12-month time scale SPI. The Mann-Kendall statistics sustained the trend significance examination, while Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis synthesizes the climate signal related to spatial and temporal characteristics of variability over Romania. The SPI variability over Romania is mainly influenced by the large-scale mechanisms (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) accounting for more than 50% from the observed variance, on second place being the Carpathians accounting for the highest influence in winter (11%). Thus, the Carpathians separate Romania in two major regions in terms of drought characteristics, namely outside and inside the mountainous arch. Significant trends towards dry conditions are noted at very few stations in winter, spring and summer, while trend to precipitation surplus cover extended areas in autumn. Further, preliminary analysis has demonstrated that NAO and AMO influence the characteristics of the meteorological drought over Romania, and qualify as possible predictors in water deficit studies. However, a stronger connection was found between the time series associated to SPI EOF1 and sea level pressure EOF1 over the region 5°E-45°E, 30°N-55°N. The work has been financed by the research project Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania (CLIMHYDEX), Cod PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, sponsored by the National Authority for Scientific Research.

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2016-11-16

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003-2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010-2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December-January-February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500-2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March-April-May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21 st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought.

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow in the Snare River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, J. P.; Pisaric, M. F.

2017-12-01

Drought is a component of many ecosystems in North America causing environmental and socioeconomical impacts. In the ongoing context of climatic and environmental changes, drought-related issues are becoming problematic in northern Canada, which have not been associated with drought-like conditions in the past. Dryer than average conditions threatens the energy security of northern canadian communities, since this region relies on the production of hydroelectricity as an energy source. In the North Slave Region of Northwest Territory (NWT), water levels and streamflows were significantly lower in 2014/2015. The Government of the NWT had to spend nearly $50 million to purchase diesel fuel to generate enough electricity to supplement the reduced power generation of the Snare River hydroelectric system, hence the need to better understand the multi-decadal variability in streamflow. The aims of this presentation are i) to present jack pine and white spruce tree-ring chronologies of Southern NWT; ii) to reconstruct past streamflow of the Snare River Basin; iii) to evaluate the frequency and magnitude of extreme drought conditions, and iv) to identify which large-scale atmospheric or oceanic patterns are teleconnected to regional hydraulic conditions. Preliminary results show that the growth of jack pine and white spruce populations is better correlated with precipitation and temperature, respectively, than hydraulic conditions. Nonetheless, we present a robust streamflow reconstruction of the Snare River that is well correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, albeit the strength of the correlation is non-stationary. Spectral analysis corroborate the synchronicity between negative NAO conditions and drought conditions. From an operational standpoint, considering that the general occurrence of positive/negative NAO can be predicted, it the hope of the authors that these results can facilitate energetic planning in the Northwest Territories through the assessment of the prevailing streamflow scenario.

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets, this methodology can be transferred to other regions for better estimation of future hydrological behavior and its impact on society.

Forced Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halloran, P. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Hall, I. R.

2016-02-01

Paul R. Halloran, David J. Reynolds, Ian R. Hall and James D. Scourse Multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) plays a first order role in determining regional atmospheric circulation and moisture transport, with major climatic consequences. These regional climate impacts range from drought in the Sahel and South America, though increased hurricane activity and temperature extremes, to modified monsoonal rainfall. Multidecadal Atlantic SST variability could arise through internal variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (e.g., Knight et al., 2006), or through externally forced change (e.g. Booth et al., 2012). It is critical that we know whether internal or external forcing dominates if we are to provide useful near-term climate projections in the Atlantic region. A persuasive argument that internal variability plays an important role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is that periodic SST variability has been observed throughout much of the last millennium (Mann et al., 2009), and the hypothesized external forcing of historical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (Booth et al., 2012) is largely anthropogenic in origin. Here we combine the first annually-resolved millennial marine reconstruction with multi-model analysis, to show that the Atlantic SST variability of the last millennium can be explained by a combination of direct volcanic forcing, and indirect, forced, AMOC variability. Our results indicate that whilst climate models capture the timing of both the directly forced SST and forced AMOC-mediated SST variability, the models fail to capture the magnitude of the forced AMOC change. Does this mean that models underestimate the 21st century reduction in AMOC strength? J. Knight, C. Folland and A. Scaife., Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, GRL, 2006 B.B.B Booth, N. Dunstone, P.R. Halloran et al., Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 2012 M.E. Mann, Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford et al., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 2009

Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon - Juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Baker, William L.

2009-01-01

Fire is known to structure tree populations, but the role of broad-scale climate variability is less clear. For example, the influence of climatic “teleconnections” (the relationship between oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations and anomalous weather patterns across broad scales) on forest age structure is relatively unexplored. We sampled semiarid piñon–juniper (Pinus edulis–Juniperus osteosperma) woodlands in western Colorado, USA, to test the hypothesis that woodland age structures are shaped by climate, including links to oceanic–atmospheric fluctuations, and by past fires and livestock grazing. Low-severity surface fire was lacking, as fire scars were absent, and did not influence woodland densities, but stand-replacing fires served as long-rotation (>400–600 years), stand-initiating events. Old-growth stands (>300 years old) were found in 75% of plots, consistent with a long fire rotation. Juniper and piñon age structures suggest contrasting responses during the past several centuries to dry and wet episodes linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Juniper density increased slightly during periods of drought, positive (warm) AMO (after ∼10-year lag), and negative (cool) PDO. In contrast, piñon populations may still be recovering from a long, drought-filled period (AD 1620–1820), with pulses of recovery favored during cool AMO, warm PDO, and above-average moisture periods. Analysis of 20th-century tree establishment and instrumental climate data corroborate the long-term relationships between age structure and climate. After Euro–American settlement (AD 1881), livestock grazing reduced understory grasses and forbs, reducing competition with tree seedlings and facilitating climate-induced increases in piñons. Thus tree populations in these woodlands are in flux, affected by drought and wet periods linked to oceanic–atmospheric variability, Euro–American livestock grazing, and long-rotation, high-severity fires. Reductions in livestock grazing levels may aid ecological restoration efforts. However, given long-term fluctuations in tree density and composition, and expected further drought, thinning or burning to reduce tree populations may be misdirected.

Holocene climate and climate variability of the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent northern Gulf Coast: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, Richard Z.

2008-01-01

Marine records from the northern Gulf of Mexico indicate that significant multidecadal- and century-scale variability was common during the Holocene. Mean annual sea-surface temperature (SST) during the last 1,400 years may have varied by 3°C, and excursions to cold SST coincide with reductions in solar output. Broad trends in Holocene terrestrial climate and environmental change along the eastern portion of the northern Gulf Coast are evident from existing pollen records, but the high-frequency details of climate variability are not well known. Continuous and well-dated records of climate change and climate variability in the western portion of the northern Gulf Coast are essentially lacking.Information on Holocene floods, droughts, and storm frequency along the northern Gulf Coast is limited. Records of floods may be preserved in continental shelf sediments, but establishing continuity and chronologies for sedimentary sequences on the shelf presents challenges due to sediment remobilization and redeposition during storms. Studies of past storm deposits in coastal lakes and marshes show promise for constructing records of past storm frequency. A recent summary of sea-level history of the northern Gulf Coast indicates sea level was higher than modern sea level several times during the last few thousand years.

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2018-01-01

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March–April–May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought. PMID:29780675

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert; Drought Working Group, S.

2008-12-01

The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2008-01-01

The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

Extense historical droughts in Spain derived from documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez-Castro, F.; García-Herrera, R.; Barriendos, M.

2009-09-01

Documentary records, specially those from rogation ceremonies have been extensively used to build proxy series of droughts and floods in Spain. Most of the work done previously has focused in the abstraction of the documents and building of the individual series, but less attention has been paid to the joint analysis of this type of records. This is problematic because, due to the diversity of Spanish climates, the climatological meaning of the rogation ceremonies changes depending on the considered region. This paper aims to analyse the spatial extension of drought events from the rogation records from Barcelona, Bilbao, Gerona, Murcia, Seville, Tarragona, Toledo, Tortosa and Zamora, which cover the 16th to 19th centuries. The representativeness of each of them is analysed taking into account the local climate and the series variability. Then the spatial scale of the recorded droughts is examined at seasonal scale. The results show high multidecadal variability, with the driest periods at national scale recorded during the 1680s, 1730s and 1780s. Finally, the dry years of 1680, 1683 and 1817 are analysed in detail.

Documentary and instrumental-based drought indices for the Czech Lands back to AD 1501

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Trnka, Miroslav; Büntgen, Ulf; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert; Štěpánek, Petr

2016-04-01

This study addresses the reconstruction of four slightly different drought indices in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) back to 1501 AD. Reconstructed monthly temperatures for central Europe that are representative for the Czech territory, together with reconstructed seasonal precipitation totals from the same area, are used to calculate monthly, seasonal and annual drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index, and PDSI). The resulting time-series reflect interannual-to multi-decadal drought variability. The driest episodes cluster around the beginning and end of the 18th century, while 1540 emerges as a particularly dry extreme year. The temperature-driven dryness of the past three decades is well captured by SPEI, Z-index and PDSI, whereas precipitation totals show no significant trend during this period (as reflected in SPI). Data and methodological uncertainty associated with Czech drought indices, as well as their position in a greater European context, are critically outlined. Further discussion is devoted to comparison with fir tree-rings from southern Moravia and a spatial subset of the "Old World Drought Atlas" (OWDA), which reveals significant correlation coefficients, of around 0.40 and 0.50, respectively. This study introduces a new documentary-based approach for the robust extension of standardized drought indices back into pre-instrumental times, which we also believe has great potential in other parts of the world where high-resolution paleoclimatic insight remains as yet limited.

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Touchan, R.; Meko, D. M.; Cook, E. R.

2016-12-01

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multidecadal to centennial timescales and north-south antiphasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, and the Balkans) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15 year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude that there is an 89% likelihood that this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood that it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M; Cook, Edward R

2016-03-16

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and north-south anti-phasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, the Balkans, etc) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the Western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the Western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15-year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude there is an 89% likelihood this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiem, Anthony; Vance, Tessa; Roberts, Jason; Ho, Michelle

2015-04-01

Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers can robustly deal with such uncertainty.

Southwestern USA Drought over Multiple Millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzer, M. W.; Kipfmueller, K. F.

2014-12-01

Severe to extreme drought conditions currently exist across much of the American West. There is increasing concern that climate change may be worsening droughts in the West and particularly the Southwest. Thus, it is important to understand the role of natural variability and to place current conditions in a long-term context. We present a tree-ring derived reconstruction of regional-scale precipitation for the Southwestern USA over several millennia. A network of 48 tree-ring chronologies from California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado was used. All of the chronologies are at least 1,000 years long. The network was subjected to data reduction through PCA and a "nested" multiple linear regression reconstruction approach. The regression model was able to capture 72% of the variance in September-August precipitation over the last 1,000 years and 53% of the variance over the first millennium of the Common Era. Variance captured and spatial coverage further declined back in time as the shorter chronologies dropped out of the model, eventually reaching 24% of variance captured at 3250 BC. Results show regional droughts on decadal- to multi-decadal scales have been prominent and persistent phenomena in the region over the last several millennia. Anthropogenic warming is likely to exacerbate the effects of future droughts on human and other biotic populations.

Tolerance or avoidance: drought frequency determines the response of an N2 -fixing tree.

PubMed

Minucci, Jeffrey M; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Teskey, Robert O; Wurzburger, Nina

2017-07-01

Climate change is increasing drought frequency, which may affect symbiotic N 2 fixation (SNF), a process that facilitates ecosystem recovery from disturbance. Here, we assessed the effect of drought frequency on the ecophysiology and SNF rate of a common N 2 -fixing tree in eastern US forests. We grew Robinia pseudoacacia seedlings under the same mean soil moisture, but with different drought frequency caused by wet-dry cycles of varying periodicity. We found no effect of drought frequency on final biomass or mean SNF rate. However, seedlings responded differently to wet and dry phases depending on drought frequency. Under low-frequency droughts, plants fixed carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) at similar rates during wet and dry phases. Conversely, under high-frequency droughts, plants fixed C and N at low rates during dry phases and at high rates during wet phases. Our findings suggest that R. pseudoacacia growth is resistant to increased drought frequency because it employs two strategies - drought tolerance or drought avoidance, followed by compensation. SNF may play a role in both by supplying N to leaf tissues for acclimation and by facilitating compensatory growth following drought. Our findings point to SNF as a mechanism for plants and ecosystems to cope with drought. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Indices and Dynamics of Global Hydroclimate Over the Past Millennium from Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, N. J.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) are at the forefront of model-data syntheses in that such reconstructions optimally fuse proxy data with climate models. DA-based paleoclimate reconstructions have the benefit of being physically-consistent across the reconstructed climate variables and are capable of providing dynamical information about past climate phenomena. Here we use a new implementation of DA, that includes updated proxy system models and climate model bias correction procedures, to reconstruct global hydroclimate on seasonal and annual timescales over the last millennium. This new global hydroclimate product includes reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and global surface temperature along with dynamical variables including the Nino 3.4 index, the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone, and an index of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we present a validation of the reconstruction product and also elucidate the causes of severe drought in North America and in equatorial Africa. Specifically, we explore the connection between droughts in North America and modes of ocean variability in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We also link drought over equatorial Africa to shifts of the intertropical convergence zone and modes of ocean variability.

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. George, Scott; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Deser, Clara

2013-01-01

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here we estimate power spectra and power laws (ß) from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). We test the significance of our estimates of spectral densities and ß against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly timescale. Although tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of ß calculated from long-moisture sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions), and other types of hydroclimate proxies, exceed null expectations. We therefore argue that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal to multidecadal timescales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soon, Willie W.-H.

2005-08-01

This letter offers new evidence motivating a more serious consideration of the potential Arctic temperature responses as a consequence of the decadal, multidecadal and longer-term persistent forcing by the ever-changing solar irradiance both in terms of total solar irradiance (TSI, i.e., integrated over all wavelengths) and the related UV irradiance. The support for such a solar modulator can be minimally derived from the large (>75%) explained variance for the decadally-smoothed Arctic surface air temperatures (SATs) by TSI and from the time-frequency structures of the TSI and Arctic SAT variability as examined by wavelet analyses. The reconstructed Arctic SAT time series based on the inverse wavelet transform, which includes decadal (5-15 years) and multidecadal (40-80 years) variations and a longer-term trend, contains nonstationary but persistent features that are highly correlated with the Sun's intrinsic magnetic variability especially on multidecadal time scales.

Possible impacts of early-11th-, middle-12th-, and late-13th-century droughts on western Native Americans and the Mississippian Cahokians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, L.V.; Berry, M.S.; Jolie, E.A.; Spangler, J.D.; Stahle, D.W.; Hattori, E.M.

2007-01-01

One or more of three intense and persistent droughts impacted some Native American cultures in the early-11th, middle-12th and late-13th centuries, including the Anasazi, Fremont, Lovelock, and Mississippian (Cahokian) prehistorical cultures. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature indicate that warm drought periods occurred between AD 990 and 1060, AD 1135 and 1170, and AD 1276 and 1297. These droughts occurred during minima in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and may have been associated with positive values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Each of the Native American cultures was supported, to a greater or lesser degree, by precipitation-dependent resources. Both the Four Corners region and Cahokia were sites of intense growth between about AD 1050 and 1130, and by AD 1150, cultures in both regions were undergoing stress. By AD 1300 the Anasazi and Fremont cultures had collapsed and their residual populations had either left their homelands or withered. In the case of Fremont populations, the AD 990-1060 drought may have had the greatest impact. This drought also may have affected the Anasazi, for it was at the end of this drought that some people from Chaco migrated to the San Juan River valley and founded the Salmon Ruin great house. Detailed data do not exist on the number of Lovelock habitation sites or populations over time; however, Lovelock populations appear to have retreated from the western Great Basin to California by AD 1300 or shortly thereafter.

Reverse relationship between drought of mid-latitudes in East Asia and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Jeoung-Yun

2016-12-01

This study found that there is a significant negative correlation between summer drought in Korea, China and Japan and the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) in the subtropical western North Pacific (SWNP) using effective drought index (EDI). The frequency of TCs that affect Korea is low (high) in a year of summer drought (non-drought). As a case study, in 1994 when there is extremely severe summer drought in Korea, there was high frequency of TCs while in 2003 when there was least severe summer drought, the frequency of TCs is the lowest. Changes in the anomalous secondary circulation, namely anomalous upward (downward) flow in the SWNP and anomalous downward (upward) flow in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, are one of the causes of drought (non-drought).

Variability of hydrological droughts in the conterminous United States, 1951 through 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Wolock, David M.; Nelms, David L.

2018-02-22

Spatial and temporal variability in the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts across the conterminous United States (CONUS) was examined using monthly mean streamflow measured at 872 sites from 1951 through 2014. Hydrological drought is identified as starting when streamflow falls below the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months and ending when streamflow remains above the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months. Mean drought frequency for all aggregated ecoregions in CONUS is 16 droughts per 100 years. Mean drought duration is 5 months, and mean drought severity is 39 percent on a scale ranging from 0 percent to 100 percent (with 100% being the most severe). Hydrological drought frequency is highest in the Western Mountains aggregated ecoregion and lowest in the Eastern Highlands, Northeast, and Southeast Plains aggregated ecoregions. Hydrological drought frequencies of 17 or more droughts per 100 years were found for the Central Plains, Southeast Coastal Plains, Western Mountains, and Western Xeric aggregated ecoregions. Drought duration and severity indicate spatial variability among the sites, but unlike drought frequency, do not show coherent spatial patterns. A comparison of an older period (1951–82) with a recent period (1983–2014) indicates few sites have statistically significant changes in drought frequency, drought duration, or drought severity at a 95-percent confidence level.

[Spatio-temporal variation of drought condition during 1961 to 2012 based on composite index of meteorological drought in Altay region, China].

PubMed

Wu, Yan-feng; Bake, Batur; Li, Wei; Wei, Xiao-qin; Wozatihan, Jiayinaguli; Rasulov, Hamid

2015-02-01

Based on the daily meteorological data of seven stations in Altay region, China, this study investigated the temporal ( seasonal, inter-annual and decadal) and spatial variations of drought by using composite index of meteorological drought, as well as trend analysis, M-K abrupt analysis, wavelet analysis and interpolation tools in ArcGIS. The results indicated that the composite index of meteorological drought could reflect the drought condition in Altay region well. Although the frequency and the covered area of both inter-annual and seasonal droughts presented decreasing trends in the recent 52 a, the drought was still serious when considering the annual drought. The frequencies of inter-annual and spring droughts had no abrupt changes, whereas the frequencies of inter-summer, autumn and winter droughts had abrupt changes during the past 52 a. A significant periodic trend was also observed for the frequencies of inter-annual and seasonal droughts. The distribution of frequency and covered area suggested that the conditions of drought were heavily serious in Qinghe County, moderately serious in Altay City, Fuyun County, Buerjin County and Fuhai County, and slightly serious in Habahe County and Jimunai County.

Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Hansen, James E.; Sun, Shan

2006-12-01

Holocene climate proxies suggest substantial correlations between tropical meteorology and solar variations, but these have thus far not been explained. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-composition model forced by sustained multi-decadal irradiance increases, we show that greater tropical temperatures alter the hydrologic cycle, enhancing the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropics while drying the subtropical subsidence regions. The shift is enhanced by tropopause region ozone increases, and the model captures the pattern inferred from paleoclimate records. The physical process we describe likely affected past civilizations, including the Maya, Moche, and Ancestral Puebloans who experienced drought coincident with increased irradiance during the late medieval (~900-1250). Similarly, decreased irradiance may have affected cultures via a weakened monsoon during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1750). Projections of 21st-century climate change yield hydrologic cycle changes via similar processes, suggesting a strong likelihood of increased subtropical drought as climate warms.

Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

2017-12-01

Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The information derived from this study would be helpful for regional water managers in forecasting regional water availability and help them develop drought adaptation and mitigation policies by incorporating information based on the large scale ocean-atmospheric cycles.

Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations during the last two millennia in Morocco, inferred from two high resolution δ18O speleothem records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Brahim, Yassine; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Khodri, Myriam; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Cruz, Francisco W.; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cheng, Hai

2017-04-01

Climate projections predict substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. Herein, we present two high resolution and well dated speleothems oxygen isotope (δ18O) records sampled from Chaara and Ifoulki caves (located in Northeastern and Southwestern Morocco respectively) to investigate hydroclimate variations during the last 2000 years. Our results are supported by a monitoring network of δ18O in precipitation from 17 stations in Morocco. The new paleoclimate records are discussed in the light of existing continental and marine paleoclimate proxies in Morocco to identify significant correlations at various lead times with the main reconstructed oceanic and atmospheric variability modes and possible climate teleconnections that have potentially influenced the climate during the last two millennia in Morocco. The results reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords. Evidence of dry conditions exist during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period and the Climate Warm Period (CWP) and humid conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Statistical analyses suggest that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last two millennia. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively. Keywords: Speleothems, δ18O, Morocco, Hydroclimate, AMO, NAO.

Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Cook, Edward; Yang, Tao; Davi, Nicole

2010-09-01

We present a Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction ( r = 0.61, P < 0.01) from 1440 to 2007 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on tree rings of the forest fir ( Abies forrestii). Persistent decadal dry intervals were found in the 1440s-1460s, 1560s-1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s, and the extreme wet epochs were the 1480s-1490s, 1510s-1520s, 1590s, 1610s-1630s, 1720s-1730s, 1800s, 1830s, 1870s, 1930s, 1950s and after the 1990s. Comparisons of our record with those identified in other moisture related reconstructions for nearby regions showed that our reconstructed droughts were relatively consistent with those found in other regions of Indochina, suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.3-5.5 years may be indicative of ENSO activity, as also suggested by negative correlations with SSTs in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean. Significant multidecadal spectral peaks of 29.2-40.9 and 56.8-60.2 years were identified. As indicated by the spatial correlation patterns, the decadal-scale variability may be linked to SST variations in the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Sensitivity of the Colorado Plateau to change: Climate, ecosystems, and society

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwinning, S.; Belnap, J.; Bowling, David R.; Ehleringer, J.R.

2008-01-01

The Colorado Plateau is located in the interior, dry end of two moisture trajectories coming from opposite directions, which have made this region a target for unusual climate fluctuations. A multidecadal drought event some 850 years ago may have eliminated maize cultivation by the first human settlers of the Colorado Plateau, the Fremont and Anasazi people, and contributed to the abandonment of their settlements. Even today, ranching and farming are vulnerable to drought and struggle to persist. The recent use of the Colorado Plateau primarily as rangeland has made this region less tolerant to drought due to unprecedented levels of surface disturbances that destroy biological crusts, reduce soil carbon and nitrogen stocks, and increase rates of soil erosion. The most recent drought of 2002 demonstrated the vulnerability of the Colorado Plateau in its currently depleted state and the associated costs to the local economies. New climate predictions for the southwestern United States include the possibility of a long-term shift to warmer, more arid conditions, punctuated by megadroughts not seen since medieval times. It remains to be seen whether the present-day extractive industries, aided by external subsidies, can persist in a climate regime that apparently exceeded the adaptive capacities of the Colorado Plateau's prehistoric agriculturalists.

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Williams, A. Park; Coats, Sloan; Stahle, David W.; Villanueva Diaz, Jose

2016-01-01

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Hansi K. A.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tardif, Robert; Emile-Geay, Julien; Noone, David C.

2018-02-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novello, Valdir F.; Cruz, Francisco W.; Karmann, Ivo; Burns, Stephen J.; Stríkis, Nicolás M.; Vuille, Mathias; Cheng, Hai; Lawrence Edwards, R.; Santos, Roberto V.; Frigo, Everton; Barreto, Eline A. S.

2012-12-01

We present the first high resolution, approximately ∼4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as ‘Nordeste’) covering the last ∼3000 yrs from 230Th-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability.

Relationship between Climate Variability, Wildfire Risk, and Wildfire Occurrence in Wildland-Urban Interface of the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Jia, S.; Nghiem, S. V.

2017-12-01

As housing units in or near wildlands have grown, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) contain at present approximately one-third of all housing in the contiguous US. Wildfires are a part of the natural cycle in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) but the increasing trend of WUI has made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. The expansion of WUI has elevated wildfire risks by increasing the chance of human caused ignitions and past fire suppression in the area. Previous studies on climate variability have shown that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts and has suffered from severe wildfires in the recent decade. Therefore, assessing the increased vulnerability to the wildfire in WUI is crucial for proactive adaptation under climate change. Our previous study has shown that a strong correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature was found during March-June in the SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry spring conditions, combined with suppression of winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risk throughout the summer and fall. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the connections between climate variability and wildfire danger characteristics. This study aims to identify climate variability using multiple climate indices such as NAO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation closely related with droughts in the SWUS region. Correlation between the variability and fire frequency and severity in WUI were examined. Also, we investigated climate variability and its relationship on local wildfire potential using both Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been used to assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively. We examined the long-term variability of the fire potential indices and relationships between the indices and historical occurrence in WUI using multi-decadal reanalysis data sets. Following our analysis, we investigated joint impacts of multiple climate indices on droughts and human activities in the WUI for regional wildfire potential.

Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Sun, Xun; Cook, Edward R.

2017-04-01

The development of paleoclimate streamflow reconstructions in the conterminous United States (CONUS) has provided water resource managers with improved insights into multidecadal and centennial scale variability that cannot be reliably detected using shorter instrumental records. Paleoclimate streamflow reconstructions have largely focused on individual catchments limiting the ability to quantify variability across the CONUS. The Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA), a spatially and temporally complete 555 year long paleoclimate record of summer drought across the CONUS, provides an opportunity to reconstruct and characterize streamflow variability at a continental scale. We explore the validity of the first paleoreconstructions of streamflow that span the CONUS informed by the LBDA targeting a set of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow sites. The reconstructions are skillful under cross validation across most of the country, but the variance explained is generally low. Spatial and temporal structures of streamflow variability are analyzed using hierarchical clustering, principal component analysis, and wavelet analyses. Nine spatially coherent clusters are identified. The reconstructions show signals of contemporary droughts such as the Dust Bowl (1930s) and 1950s droughts. Decadal-scale variability was detected in the late 1900s in the western U.S., however, similar modes of temporal variability were rarely present prior to the 1950s. The twentieth century featured longer wet spells and shorter dry spells compared with the preceding 450 years. Streamflows in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast are negatively correlated with the central U.S. suggesting the potential to mitigate some drought impacts by balancing economic activities and insurance pools across these regions during major droughts.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

2017-04-01

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2011-12-01

Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Quantile regression and clustering analysis of standardized precipitation index in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Yongyong; Han, Jian; Wu, Xia

2017-11-01

Because drought is a very common and widespread natural disaster, it has attracted a great deal of academic interest. Based on 12-month time scale standardized precipitation indices (SPI12) calculated from precipitation data recorded between 1960 and 2015 at 22 weather stations in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), this study aims to identify the trends of SPI and drought duration, severity, and frequency at various quantiles and to perform cluster analysis of drought events in the TRB. The results indicated that (1) both precipitation and temperature at most stations in the TRB exhibited significant positive trends during 1960-2015; (2) multiple scales of SPIs changed significantly around 1986; (3) based on quantile regression analysis of temporal drought changes, the positive SPI slopes indicated less severe and less frequent droughts at lower quantiles, but clear variation was detected in the drought frequency; and (4) significantly different trends were found in drought frequency probably between severe droughts and drought frequency.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

2012-04-04

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Brown, Peter M

2006-10-01

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Niñas, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Niño, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.

Toward improving the representation of the water cycle at High Northern Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahoz, William; Svendby, Tove; Hamer, Paul; Blyverket, Jostein; Kristiansen, Jørn; Luijting, Hanneke

2016-04-01

The rapid warming at northern latitude regions in recent decades has resulted in a lengthening of the growing season, greater photosynthetic activity and enhanced carbon sequestration by the ecosystem. These changes are likely to intensify summer droughts, tree mortality and wildfires. A potential major climate change feedback is the release of carbon-bearing compounds from soil thawing. These changes make it important to have information on the land surface (soil moisture and temperature) at high northern latitude regions. The availability of soil moisture measurements from several satellite platforms provides an opportunity to address issues associated with the effects of climate change, e.g., assessing multi-decadal links between increasing temperatures, snow cover, soil moisture variability and vegetation dynamics. The relatively poor information on water cycle parameters for biomes at northern high latitudes make it important that efforts are expended on improving the representation of the water cycle at these latitudes. In a collaboration between NILU and Met Norway, we evaluate the soil moisture observations over Norway from the ESA satellite SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) using in situ ground based soil moisture measurements, with reference to drought and flood episodes. We will use data assimilation of the quality-controlled SMOS soil moisture observations into a land surface model and a numerical weather prediction model to assess the added value from satellite observations of soil moisture for improving the representation of the water cycle at high northern latitudes. This presentation provides first results from this work. We discuss the evaluation of SMOS soil moisture data (and from other satellites) against ground-based in situ data over Norway; the performance of the SMOS soil moisture data for selected drought and flood conditions over Norway; and the first results from data assimilation experiments with land surface models and numerical weather prediction models. Analyses include information on root zone soil moisture. We provide evidence of the value of satellite soil measurements over Norway, including their fidelity, and their impact at improving the representation of the hydrological cycle over northern high latitudes. We indicate benefits from these results for multi-decadal soil moisture datasets such as that from the ESA CCI for soil moisture.

Evolution of multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; McKay, N.

2017-12-01

The West African monsoon system is strongly linked to changes in Atlantic variability on multidecadal to millennial timescales. Understanding the nature of these linkages thus provides important insights into the susceptibility of West African precipitation to past and future changes in Atlantic circulation. Here, we use an annually-resolved record of lamination thickness variations from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana to generate an unprecedented record of changes in the West African monsoon spanning the last deglaciation ( 12.8-24 ka BP) and the latest Holocene (0-2.6 ka BP). Millennial-scale variability in varve thickness is consistent with published data from hydrogen isotopes in leaf waxes, showing a dramatic and sustained shift to drier conditions during HS1, a rapid recovery at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød and a gradual shift towards drier conditions following the end of the African Humid Period. The varve thickness record also indicates the presence of significant multidecadal ( 40- 80 years) West African monsoon variability throughout much of the record, disappearing only during the later portion of HS1 ( 14.8-16 ka BP). Previous studies have linked multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a low frequency mode of North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability that is hypothesized to be controlled by changes in North Atlantic heat transport via the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our reconstruction indicates that this mode of multidecadal variability was active not only throughout the late Holocene but during the Last Glacial Maximum and much of the deglaciation, including the first half of HS1. The later result is unexpected in that it suggests that the AMO remained active even as the Atlantic overturning circulation collapsed and the African monsoon weakened during the initial phase of HS1. The decoupling of multidecadal and millennial scale variability suggests either a complex, time-transgressive Atlantic circulation response to changing conditions during HS1 or that the driver of multidecadal variability resides in some process other than the AMOC.

The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

2017-12-01

Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahle, David W.; Cook, Edward R.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Burns, Jordan N.; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.; Acuna, Rodolfo; Torbenson, Max C. A.;

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, David W.; Cook, Edward R.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Burns, Jordan N.; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.; Acuña, Rodolfo; Torbenson, Max C. A.; Szejner, Paul; Howard, Ian M.

2016-10-01

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34°N and 75-120°W using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Año de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Betancourt, J.L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700??yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-01-01

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew; Cullinan, Valerie

Mojave Desert ecosystem processes are dependent upon the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Multi-decadal periods of drought or above-average rainfall affect landscape vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. The seasonality of precipitation events can also affect the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. To develop an understanding of precipitation regimes and fire patterns we used monthly average precipitation data and GIS data representing burned areas from 1971-2010. We applied a K-means cluster analysis to the monthly precipitation data identifying three distinct precipitation seasons; winter (October – March), spring (April-June) and summer (July-September) and four discrete precipitationmore » regimes within the Mojave ecoregion.« less

Temporal-spatial evolution of the hydrologic drought characteristics of the karst drainage basins in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhonghua; Liang, Hong; Yang, Chaohui; Huang, Fasu; Zeng, Xinbo

2018-02-01

Hydrologic drought, as a typical natural phenomenon in the context of global climate change, is the extension and development of meteorological and agricultural droughts, and it is an eventual and extreme drought. This study selects 55 hydrological control basins in Southern China as research areas. The study analyzes features, such as intensity and occurrence frequency of hydrologic droughts, and explores the spatial-temporal evolution patterns in the karst drainage basins in Southern China by virtue of Streamflow Drought Index. Results show that (1) the general hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s exhibited ;an upward trend after having experienced a previous decline; in the karst drainage basins in Southern China; the trend was mainly represented by the gradual alleviation of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 1990s and the gradual aggravation from 2000s to 2010s. (2) The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of occurrence frequency in the karst drainage basins in Southern China was consistent with the intensity of hydrologic droughts. The periods of 1970s and 2010s exhibited the highest occurrence frequency. (3) The karst drainage basins in Southern China experienced extremely complex variability of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s. Drought intensity and occurrence frequency significantly vary for different types of hydrology.

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

2011-01-01

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D. H.; Wu, D.; Huang, R.; Wang, L. N.; Yang, G. Y.

2013-03-01

According to the Chinese climate divisions and the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin digital elevation map, the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961-2011, the drought frequency changes with different magnitudes are analyzed and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the drought frequency changes for different years. The results of the study indicated the following: (1) the occurrence frequency of different drought level shows an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. The occurrence frequencies of severe and extraordinary drought are higher on the North China Plain, Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, as well as on the Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas surrounding Bo Sea, the Shandong Peninsula and the Huai River downstream, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the middle and upper reaches of the Huai River basin, on the Hai River basin piedmont plain and Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The mountains with high attitude and Tibetan Plateau are located at high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought frequency increases, areas I, II and V which are located on the coastal and in the river basin are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

A new perspective on the 1930s mega-heat waves across central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2016-04-01

The unprecedented hot and dry conditions that plagued contiguous United States during the 1930s caused widespread devastation for many local communities and severely dented the emerging economy. The heat extremes experienced during the aptly named Dust Bowl decade were not isolated incidences, but part of a tendency towards warm summers over the central United States in the early 1930s, and peaked in the boreal summer 1936. Using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature observations from more than 880 Global Historical Climate Network stations across the United States and southern Canada, we assess the record breaking heat waves in the 1930s Dust Bowl decade. A comparison is made to more recent heat waves that have occurred during the latter half of the 20th century (i.e., in a warming world), both averaged over selected years and across decades. We further test the ability of coupled climate models to simulate mega-heat waves (i.e. most extreme events) across the United States in a pre-industrial climate without the impact of any long-term anthropogenic warming. Well-established heat wave metrics based on the temperature percentile threshold exceedances over three or more consecutive days are used to describe variations in the frequency, duration, amplitude and timing of the events. Casual factors such as drought severity/soil moisture deficits in the lead up to the heat waves (interannual), as well as the concurrent synoptic conditions (interdiurnal) and variability in Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (decadal) are also investigated. Results suggest that while each heat wave summer in the 1930s exhibited quite unique characteristics in terms of their timing, duration, amplitude, and regional clustering, a common factor in the Dust Bowl decade was the high number of consecutive dry seasons, as measured by drought indicators such as the Palmer Drought Severity and Standardised Precipitation indices, that preceded the mega-heat waves. This suggests that land surface feedbacks, resulting from anomalously dry soil prior to summer, amplified the heat extremes triggering the mega-heat waves. Using the model experiments, we assess whether the combined warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation provide a necessary condition to trigger decade-long droughts that spawn mega-heat waves to cluster across consecutive summers.

Effects of fire frequency on long-term development of an oak-hickory forest in Missouri, U.S.A.

Treesearch

Benjamin O. Knapp; Michael A. Hullinger; John M. Kabrick

2017-01-01

Repeated prescribed burning over long timescales has some predictable effects on forest structure and composition, but multi-decadal patterns of stand dynamics and successional change with different fire frequencies have rarely been described. We used longitudinal data from a prescribed burning study conducted over a 63-year period to quantify stand structure (stem...

Identifying Decadal to Multi-decadal Variability in the Pacific by Empirical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommers, L. A.; Hamlington, B.; Cheon, S. H.

2016-12-01

Large scale climate variability in the Pacific Ocean like that associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been shown to have a significant impact on climate and sea level across a range of timescales. The changes related to these climate signals have worldwide impacts on fisheries, weather, and precipitation patterns among others. Understanding these inter-annual to multi-decadal oscillations is imperative to longer term climate forecasts and understanding how climate will behave, and its effect on changes in sea level. With a 110-year reconstruction of sea level, we examine decadal to multi-decadal variability seen in the sea level fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean. Using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), we break down regional sea level into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and attempt attribution of these IMFs to specific climate modes of variability. In particular, and not unexpectedly, we identify IMFs associated with the PDO, finding correlations between the PDO Index and IMFs in the Pacific Ocean upwards of 0.6-0.8 over the 110-year reconstructed record. Perhaps more significantly, we also find evidence of a longer multi-decadal signal ( 50-60 years) in the higher order IMFs. This lower frequency variability has been suggested in previous literature as influencing GMSL, but here we find a regional pattern associated with this multi-decadal signal. By identifying and separating these periodic climate signals, we can gain a better understanding of how the sea level variability associated with these modes can impact sea level on short timescales and serve to exacerbate the effects of long-term sea level change.

Drought Characteristics Based on the Retrieved Paleoprecipitation in Indus and Ganges River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davtalabsabet, R.; Wang, D.; Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.

2014-12-01

Indus and Ganges River basins (IGRB), which cover the major parts of India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan, are considered as the most important socio-economic regions in South Asia. IGRB support the food security of hundreds of millions people in South Asia. The food production in IGRB strictly relies on the magnitude and spatiotemporal pattern of monsoon precipitation. Due to severe drought during the last decades and food production failure in IGRB, several studies have focused on understanding the main drivers for south Asia monsoon failures and drought characteristics based on the historical data. However, the period of available historical data is not enough to address the full characteristic of drought under a changing climate. In this study, an inverse Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) model is developed to retrieve the paleoprecipitation back to 700 years in the region, taking the inputs of available soil water capacity, temperature, and previous reconstructed PDSI based on tree-ring analysis at 2.5 degree resolution. Based on the retrieved paleoprecipitation, drought frequency and intensity are quantified for two periods of 1300-1899 (the reconstruction period) and 1900-2010 (the instrumental period). Previous studies have shown that in IGRB, a severe drought occurs when the annual precipitation deficit, compared with the long-term average precipitation, is greater than 10%. Climatic drought frequency is calculated as the percentage of years with predefined severe droughts. Drought intensity is defined as the average precipitation deficit during all of the years identified as severe droughts. Results show that the drought frequency, as well as the spatial extent, has significantly increased from the reconstruction period to the instrumental period. The drought frequency in the Indus River basin is higher than that in the Ganges River basin. Several mega-droughts are identified during the reconstruction period.

Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and still 8% for series of 25 years lengths. Methods for bias correction are demonstrated. The definition of "bias" depends on a number of factors, which needs further debate in the hydrological and water engineering community. References: Willems P. (2013), 'Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe', Climatic Change, 120(4), 931-944 Willems, P. (2013). 'Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations', Journal of Hydrology, 490, 126-133 Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263

The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Cook, B. I.; Smerdon, J. E.; Bishop, D. A.; Seager, R.; Mankin, J. S.

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States (SE US) drought in fall 2016 appeared exceptional based on its wildfire and water-supply impacts but the current monitoring framework does not readily facilitate evaluation of moisture-balance anomalies in a centennial context. A new method to extend modeled soil-moisture records back to 1895 is developed using monthly climate data. Since 1895, October-November 2016 soil moisture (0-200 cm) in the SE US was likely the second lowest on record, behind 1954. This severe drought developed rapidly and was brought on by near record-low September-November precipitation and record-high September-November daily maximum temperatures (Tmax). Record Tmax drove record-high atmospheric moisture demand, accounting for 28% of the October-November 2016 soil-moisture anomaly. Drought and heat in fall 2016 contrasted strongly with 20th-century wetting and cooling trends, with few analogs after the mid-1950s. Dynamically, the exceptional drying in fall 2016 was driven by anomalous ridging over the central United States that reduced south-southwesterly moisture transports into the SE US by approximately 75%. These circulation anomalies were promoted by moderate La Niña conditions and warmth in the tropical North Atlantic, but these processes did not account for a majority of the SE US drying in fall 2016 and therefore imply a large role for internal atmospheric variability. The extended analysis back to 1895 indicates that SE US droughts as strong as the 2016 event are more likely than indicated from a shorter 60-year perspective, and continued multi-decadal swings in precipitation may combine with future warming to further enhance the likelihood of such events.

Variability of drought characteristics in Europe over the last 250 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanel, Martin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Máca, Petr; Markonis, Yannis; Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini

2017-04-01

The mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) with spatial resolution 0.5deg is applied to simulate water balance across large part of continental Europe (excluding Scandinavia and Russia) for the period 1766-2015. The model is driven by available European gridded monthly temperature and precipitation reconstructions (Casty et al, 2007), which are disaggregated into daily time step using k-nearest neighbour resampling (Lall and Sharma, 1996). To quantify the uncertainty due to temporal disaggregation, several replicates of precipitation and temperature fields for the whole period are considered. In parallel, model parameter uncertainty is addressed by an ensemble of parameter realizations provided by Rakovec et al (2016). Deficit periods with respect to total runoff and soil moisture are identified at each grid cell using the variable threshold method. We assess the severity and intensity of drought, spatial extent of area under drought as well as the length of deficit periods. In addition, we also determine the occurrence of multi-year droughts during the period and evaluate the extremity of recent droughts in Europe (i.e., 2003, 2015) in the context of the whole multi-decadal record. References: Casty, C., Raible, C.C., Stocker, T.F., Luterbacher, J. and H. Wanner (2007), A European pattern climatology 1766-2000, Climate Dynamics, 29(7), DOI:10.1007/s00382-007-0257-6. Lall, U., and A. Sharma (1996), A Nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series, Water Resour. Res., 32(3), 679-693, DOI:10.1029/95WR02966. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016), Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation, Water Resour. Res., 52, DOI:10.1002/2016WR019430

Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recordered in giant sequoia tree rings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, M.K.; Brown, P.M.

1992-01-01

Well replicated tree-ring width index chronologies have been developed for giant sequoia at three sites in the Sierra Nevada, California. Extreme low-growth events in these chronologies correspond with regional drought events in the twentieth century in the San Joaquin drainage, in which the giant sequoia sites are located. This relationship is based upon comparison of tree-ring indices with August Palmer Drought Severity Indices for California Climate Division 5. Ring-width indices in the lowest decile from each site were compared. The frequency of low-growth events which occurred at all three sites in the same year is reconstructed from 101 B.C. tomore » A.D. 1988. The inferred frequency of severe drought events changes through time, sometimes suddenly. The period from roughly 1850 to 1950 had one of the lowest frequencies of drought of any one hundred year period in the 2089 year record. The twentieth century so far has had a below-average frequency of extreme droughts. 26 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.« less

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhibin; Cazelles, Bernard; Tian, Huidong; Christian Stige, Leif; Bräuning, Achim; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2008-01-01

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957–1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160–170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160–170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects. PMID:19033144

Aeolian responses to climate variability during the past century on Mesquite Lake Playa, Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, John W.; Breit, George N.; Buckingham, S.E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Bogle, Rian C.; Luo, Lifeng; Goldstein, Harland L.; Vogel, John M.

2015-01-01

The erosion and deposition of sediments by wind from 1901 to 2013 have created large changes in surface features of Mesquite Lake playa in the Mojave Desert. The decadal scale recurrence of sand-sheet development, migration, and merging with older dunes appears related to decadal climatic changes of drought and wetness as recorded in the precipitation history of the Mojave Desert, complemented by modeled soil-moisture index values. Historical aerial photographs, repeat land photographs, and satellite images document the presence and northward migration of a mid-20th century sand sheet that formed during a severe regional drought that coincided with a multi-decadal cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The sand sheet slowly eroded during the wetter conditions of the subsequent PDO warm phase (1977–1998) due to a lack of added sediment. Sand cohesion gradually increased in the sand sheet by seasonal additions of salt and clay and by re-precipitation of gypsum, which resulted in the wind-carving of yardangs in the receding sand sheet. Smaller yardangs were aerodynamically shaped from coppice dunes with salt-clay crusts, and larger yardangs were carved along the walls and floor of trough blowouts. Evidence of a 19th century cycle of sand-sheet formation and erosion is indicated by remnants of yardangs, photographed in 1901 and 1916, that were found buried in the mid-20th century sand sheet. Three years of erosion measurements on the playa, yardangs, and sand sheets document relatively rapid wind erosion. The playa has lowered 20 to 40 cm since the mid-20th century and a shallow deflation basin has developed since 1999. Annually, 5–10 cm of surface sediment was removed from yardang flanks by a combination of wind abrasion, deflation, and mass movement. The most effective erosional processes are wind stripping of thin crusts that form on the yardang surfaces after rain events and the slumping of sediment blocks from yardang flanks. These wind-eroded landforms persist several decades to a century before eroding away or being buried by younger sands. On Mesquite Lake playa the climatic history of alternating PDO phases of multi-decadal drought and wetness is recorded twice by the presence of yardangs formed nearly a century apart.

Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.

PubMed

Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J

2016-09-28

Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.

Historical droughts in northern Vietnam captured by variability in speleothem δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardt, B. F.; McGee, D.; Burns, S. J.; Hieu, N.; Hieu, D. T.

2015-12-01

Speleothem records overlapping with the historical period offer valuable comparisons of documentary evidence with speleothem proxy data. These records provide opportunities to 'ground-truth' the paleo-record, fill in gaps in the historical record, and more confidently extent the paleo-record into deeper time. Here we present isotopic results from a stalagmite collected in northern Vietnam spanning 1200 to 1950 CE, a period with a rich historical record in Vietnam. This sample adds significantly to the relatively sparse paleoclimate record from Southeast Asia. The record includes several multi-decadal positive excursions of ≥1 per mille in calcite δ18O. A preliminary age model, based on six U/Th ages, suggests possible correspondence to noted droughts from the historical record, including the Angkor Droughts, the Ming Dynasty Drought, the Strange Parallels Drought, and the Victorian Holocaust Drought. As modeling studies indicate a strong correlation between rainfall δ18O and both the intensity of summer monsoon winds and summer rainfall over northern Vietnam (e.g., Liu et al., 2014), these excursions are consistent with a decrease in regional precipitation. The Vietnam record shows an overall negative trend during the Little Ice Age. The study site is located well south of the westerly wind belt, ruling out a shift between monsoonal and mid-latitude circulation systems as a likely explanation for the northern Vietnam record. We explore the correspondence between our record and other proxy data from Southeast Asia and suggest possible implications of the differences between Vietnamese and Chinese speleothem records during the Little Ice Age. References cited: Liu Z., Wen X., Brady E. C., Otto-Bliesner B., Yu G., Lu H., Cheng H., Wang Y., Zheng W., Ding Y., Edwards R. L., Cheng J., Liu W. and Yang H. (2014) Chinese cave records and the East Asia Summer Monsoon. Quaternary Science Reviews 83, 115-128.

Tolerance or avoidance: drought frequency determines the response of an N 2 -fixing tree

Treesearch

Jeffrey M. Minucci; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Robert O. Teskey; Nina Wurzburger

2017-01-01

• Climate change is increasing drought frequency, which may affect symbiotic N2 fixation (SNF), a process that facilitates ecosystem recovery from disturbance. Here, we assessed the effect of drought frequency on the ecophysiology and SNF rate of a common N2-fixing tree in eastern US forests.•We grew Robinia pseudoacacia seedlings under the same mean soil...

Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.

2015-03-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from ˜10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the "MSL offset method," assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

Hatch plasticity in response to varied inundation frequency in Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Vitek, Christopher J; Livdahl, Todd

2009-07-01

Eggs of container-breeding mosquitoes are able to withstand drought conditions as an egg and hatch when submerged. Frequent rainfall can be simulated by frequent submersion, and drought conditions can be simulated by infrequent submersion. We examined the hatch response of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) eggs to simulated drought conditions. Ae. albopictus eggs from a strain originating outside Kobe, Japan, were subjected to one of three treatments; high-frequency hatch stimulation consisting of submerging the eggs in a nutrient broth mixture every 3 d, low-frequency hatch stimulation consisting of submerging the eggs every 7 d, and delayed high-frequency hatch stimulation. Eggs that were subjected to lower-frequency stimulation showed a significant decrease in hatch delay, which was the opposite of the predicted response. This decrease in hatch delay may be an example of hatch plasticity in response to drought conditions. This response could not be explained as a result of the difference in the ages of the eggs on any given stimulus. A decreased hatch delay response to potential drought conditions combined with rapid larval development may enable Ae. albopictus, whose eggs are not as desiccation resistant as some other container-breeding mosquitoes, to survive extended drought.

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate record may exhibit larger low-frequency variability than GCMs currently simulate, indicative of incomplete physics and/or forcings.

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, M.; Hasibeder, R.; Fuchslueger, L.; Ingrisch, J.; Ladreiter-Knauss, T.; Lair, G.; Reinthaler, D.; Richter, A.; Kaufmann, R.

2016-12-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing with increasing drought frequency and involving changes in both plant functional composition and soil structure and processes.

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, Michael; Hasibeder, Roland; Fuchslueger, Lucia; Ingrisch, Johannes; Ladreiter-Knauss, Thomas; Lair, Georg; Reinthaler, David; Richter, Andreas; Kaufmann, Rüdiger

2017-04-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Isotopic pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing with increasing drought frequency and involving changes in both plant functional composition and soil structure and processes.

Emerging Stress and Relative Resiliency of Giant Sequoia Groves Experiencing Multiyear Dry Periods in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Yanjun; Bales, Roger C.; Ma, Qin; Nydick, Koren; Ray, Ram L.; Li, Wenkai; Guo, Qinghua

2017-11-01

The relative greenness and wetness of Giant Sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and the surrounding Sierra Nevada, California forests were investigated using patterns in vegetation indices from Landsat imagery for the period 1985-2015. Vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and thus forest biomass in groves increased by about 6% over that 30 year period, suggesting a 10% increase in evapotranspiration. No significant change in the surrounding nongrove forest was observed. In this period, local temperature measurements showed an increase of about 2.2°C. The wetness of groves (normalized difference wetness index) showed no overall long-term trend but responded to changes in annual water-year precipitation and temperature. The long-term trends of grove greenness and wetness varied by elevation, with the lower rain-snow transition elevation zone (1,700-2,100 m) marking a change from an increasing trend at lower elevations to a decreasing trend at higher elevations. The 2011-2015 drought brought an unprecedented drop in grove wetness, over 5 times the 1985-2010 standard deviation, and wetness in SEGI groves dropped 50% more than in nongrove areas. Overall, the wetness and greenness of SEGI groves showed a larger response to the warming climate and drought than nongrove areas. The influence of droughts on the wetness of SEGI groves reflected effects of both the multidecadal increase in forest biomass and the effects of warmer drought-year temperatures on the evaporative demand of current grove vegetation, plus sufficient regolith water storage of rain and snowmelt to sustain that vegetation through seasonal and multiyear dry periods.

Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana P.; Hodes, Jared L.; Arulraj, Malarvizhi

2017-10-01

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), wavelet, and wavelet coherence analysis of baseflow time-series from 126 streamgauges (record-length > 50 years; small and mid-size watersheds) in the US South Atlantic (USSA) region reveal three principal modes of space-time variability: (1) a region-wide dominant mode tied to annual precipitation that exhibits non-stationary decadal variability after the mid 1990s concurrent with the warming of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation); (2) two spatial modes, east and west of the Blue Ridge, exhibiting nonstationary seasonal to sub-decadal variability before and after 1990 attributed to complex nonlinear interactions between ENSO and AMO impacting precipitation and recharge; and (3) deep (decadal) and shallow (< 6 years) space-time modes of groundwater variability separating basins with high and low annual mean baseflow fraction (MBF) by physiographic region. The results explain the propagation of multiscale climate variability into the regional groundwater system through recharge modulated by topography, geomorphology, and geology to determine the spatial organization of baseflow variability at decadal (and longer) time-scales, that is, deep hydrologic drought. Further, these findings suggest potential for long-range predictability of hydrological drought in small and mid-size watersheds, where baseflow is a robust indicator of nonstationary yield capacity of the underlying groundwater basins. Predictive associations between climate mode indices and deep baseflow (e.g. persistent decreases of the decadal-scale components of baseflow during the cold phase of the AMO in the USSA) can be instrumental toward improving forecast lead-times and long-range mitigation of severe drought.

A Zonal Mode in the Indian Ocean over the Past Millennium? Isotopic Evidence from Continental Climate Archives and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Cohen, L. R.; Chuman, A. F.; Huang, Y.

2011-12-01

We present new evidence for multi-decadal to millennial scale hydro-climatic change in the continental Indian Ocean region over the past two millennia. We assess regional hydrological variability using new records of the δD of terrestrial plant waxes from the sediments of several lakes in tropical East Africa and Indonesia. We compare these new data to previous δ18O and δD records from the region and interpret these results in light of an isotope-enabled climate model simulation of the past 130 years. Long-term trends in our data support a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)'s mean position over the past millennium, bringing progressively wetter conditions and D-depleted waxes to our southernmost site (~8°S) starting around 950 C.E. while maintaining overall wet conditions at our northernmost site (~0°N) until the end of the 19th century. Superimposed on this long-term trend are a series of pronounced, multi-decadal to centennial scale isotopic excursions that are of the same timing but in opposite directions on the two sides of the Indian Ocean. These zonally asymmetric isotopic fluctuations become progressively more pronounced beginning around 1400 C.E., with the onset of Little Ice Age cool conditions recorded in sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Northern Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). Previous work in the IPWP region suggests cooler SST, reduced boreal summer Asian monsoon intensity, and less ENSO-like activity during the Little Ice Age [Oppo et al., 2009, Nature 460:1113, and references therein], although recent paleolimnological reconstructions from Java indicate punctuated droughts during this time [Rodysill et al., 2010, Eos Trans. AGU, 91(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP51B-04]. Our records suggest that multi-decadal to centennial precipitation variability was in fact enhanced during this time period in parts of equatorial East Africa and western Indonesia. The direction of isotopic excursions in our records resembles the variations associated with the negative mode of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) observed in modern seasonal data. To investigate the potential for an IOZM-like mode to explain multi-decadal phenomena over the past millennium, we compare the variations in our records and in other previously published δ18O and δD records from the region to a model simulation of the past 130 years by the Stable Water Isotope INtercomparison Group (SWING). We find significant multi-decadal isotopic variability associated with the IOZM in the SWING experiment. We analyze the isotopic signature associated with both the IOZM and ENSO and use these findings to help interpret the multi-decadal variability evident in continental paleoclimate archives over the past millennium in the Indian Ocean region.

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong

2017-08-01

This study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model, e.g., decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features, which can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism, cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.

Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

Role of the North Atlantic Ocean in Low Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Castruccio, F. S.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic Ocean is a unique basin with its extensive, North - South overturning circulation, referred to as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC is thought to represent the dynamical memory of the climate system, playing an important role in decadal and longer time scale climate variability as well as prediction of the earth's future climate on these time scales via its large heat and salt transports. This oceanic memory is communicated to the atmosphere primarily through the influence of persistent sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Indeed, many modeling studies suggest that ocean circulation, i.e., AMOC, is largely responsible for the creation of coherent SST variability in the North Atlantic, referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). AMV has been linked to many (multi)decadal climate variations in, e.g., Sahel and Brazilian rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and Arctic sea-ice extent. In the absence of long, continuous observations, much of the evidence for the ocean's role in (multi)decadal variability comes from model simulations. Although models tend to agree on the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in creating the density anomalies that proceed the changes in ocean circulation, model fidelity in representing variability characteristics, mechanisms, and air-sea interactions remains a serious concern. In particular, there is increasing evidence that models significantly underestimate low frequency variability in the North Atlantic compared to available observations. Such model deficiencies can amplify the relative influence of external or stochastic atmospheric forcing in generating (multi)decadal variability, i.e., AMV, at the expense of ocean dynamics. Here, a succinct overview of the current understanding of the (North) Atlantic Ocean's role on the regional and global climate, including some outstanding questions, will be presented. In addition, a few examples of the climate impacts of the AMV via atmospheric teleconnections from a set of coupled simulations, also considering the relative roles of its tropical and extratropical components, will be highlighted.

Utilizing Objective Drought Thresholds to Improve Drought Monitoring with the SPI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leasor, Z. T.; Quiring, S. M.

2017-12-01

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Droughts are frequently monitored using the severity categories determined by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to conduct a drought frequency analysis across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas using PRISM precipitation data from 1900-2015. The SPI is shown to be spatiotemporally variant across the south-central United States. In particular, utilizing the default USDM severity thresholds may underestimate drought severity in arid regions. Objective drought thresholds were implemented by fitting a CDF to each location's SPI distribution. This approach results in a more homogeneous distribution of drought frequencies across each severity category. Results also indicate that it may be beneficial to develop objective drought thresholds for each season and SPI timescale. This research serves as a proof-of-concept and demonstrates how drought thresholds should be objectively developed so that they are appropriate for each climatic region.

Detecting influences on California drought intervals using isotopes in tree-ring cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanner, L. C.; Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.; Stahle, D. W.

2012-12-01

Multi-decadal drought events have characterized climate variability in California over the last century. However, the causes of interannual precipitation variability and the origins of multi-decadal drought in California remain unclear. We utilize the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in combination with previously developed ring-width measurements to trace the delivery of moisture to the region and investigate ocean-atmosphere patterns that might generate prolonged drought. Of the 36 Quercus douglasii (blue oak) sites in the California central valley, we have focused our work at two locations - one north of Los Angeles (34.74°N, 120°W, 1036 masl) and the other east of San Francisco (37.88°N 121.97°W, 182 masl). Using cores from at least five different trees at each location, tree-ring cellulose δ18O was measured for each year of growth from 1954 to 2004. The δ18O values of tree-ring cellulose range from 29‰ to 34‰ (VSMOW) at both sites and exhibit shared interannual variance (r = 0.43, p < 0.01). To trace changes in moisture delivery, we apply a biophysical model of cellulose δ18O and derive a proxy for rainfall δ18O. A reasonable approximation of rainfall δ18O is soil water δ18O, which, based on the biophysical model, can be estimated using cellulose δ18O, relative humidity, and temperature. High-resolution climate data from PRISM are combined with our cellulose measurements to compute soil water δ18O (and thus rainfall δ18O). Calculated rainfall δ18O is well correlated between the two locations (r = 0.55, p < 0.001) and the variance in δ18O at each site is 6‰. In terms of regional climate changes, our rainfall δ18O proxy exhibits a positive correlation with local precipitation amount, inferred from tree-ring width (r = 0.66, p < 0.001). This positive correlation suggests rainfall amount cannot be the main influence on the isotopic composition because changes in δ18O solely due to amount typically occur in the negative direction (the so-called amount effect usually observed in the tropics). Instead, we hypothesize that shifts in the moisture source region are of primary importance because moisture from high latitude sources has a lower isotopic composition compared to subtropical regions. Using NCAR reanalysis data, wind field anomalies suggest that moisture is derived from the north during dry years (low δ18O) and from the subtropics during wet years (high δ18O). Additional processes such as condensation height and post-condensation effects may also be important in controlling isotopic variability.

Late Holocene to present climatic and anthropogenic drivers affecting wetland plant communities, Florida Everglades, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, C. E.; Willard, D. A.

2011-12-01

We synthesize the paleoecological results of dozens of sediment cores to evaluate the complex interactions of regional climate variability and anthropogenic modifications during the late Holocene affecting the development, stability, and resilience of the Florida Everglades wetlands. The Everglades is a mosaic of wetland types whose distributions are controlled by water depth, hydroperiod, fire, and substrate. External stressors could trigger shifts in the vegetation composition and change the community structure. Episodic severe periods of aridity during the late Holocene caused regional shifts in vegetation including the initiation and development of tree islands and sawgrass ridges, which became established during abrupt drought events. While the timing varies site to site, most droughts occurred during well-documented global climate events like the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. However, slough vegetation is more resilient to climate variability and quickly returns to its original composition after droughts. Twentieth century modification to the natural Everglades hydrology saw the distribution wetlands severely altered. The response was not homogeneous. Some communities were drowned by prolonged hydroperiods whereas other communities, such as marl prairies became drier. However, slough vegetation in the ridge and slough landscape did not respond to 20th century land use but instead has been sensitive to changes in precipitation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Variability of runoff-based drought conditions in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Austin, Samuel H.

2017-01-01

In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. The monthly runoff time series for each HU were smoothed with a 3-month moving average, and then the 3-month moving-average runoff values were converted to percentiles. For each HU, a drought was considered to occur when the HU runoff percentile dropped to the 20th percentile or lower. A drought was considered to end when the HU runoff percentile exceeded the 20th percentile. After identifying drought events for each HU, the frequency and length of drought events were examined. Results indicated that (1) the longest mean drought lengths occur in the eastern CONUS and parts of the Rocky Mountain region and the northwestern CONUS, (2) the frequency of drought is highest in the southwestern and central CONUS, and lowest in the eastern CONUS, the Rocky Mountain region, and the northwestern CONUS, (3) droughts have occurred during all months of the year and there does not appear to be a seasonal pattern to drought occurrence, (4) the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and (5) for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.

Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O. C.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Saatchi, Sassan; Anderson, Liana O.; Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir

2007-04-01

There has been an increasing awareness of the possibility of climate change causing increased drought frequency in Amazonia, with ensuing impacts on ecosystems and human populations. This debate has been brought into focus by the 1997/1998 and 2005 Amazonian droughts. We analysed the spatial extent of these droughts and fire response to the 2005 drought with TRMM and NOAA-12 data, respectively. Both droughts had distinct fingerprints. The 2005 drought was characterized by its intensification throughout the dry season in south-western Amazonia. During 2005 the annual cumulative number of hot pixels in Amazonia increased 33% in relation to the 1999-2005 mean. In the Brazilian state of Acre, at the epicentre of the 2005 drought, the area of leakage forest fires was more than five times greater than the area directly deforested. Fire leakage into flammable forests may be the major agent of biome transformation in the event of increasing drought frequency.

Soil moisture trends in the Czech Republic between 1961 and 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlavinka, Petr; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Štěpánek, Petr; Dobrovolný, Petr; Zahradníček, Pavel; Balek, Jan; Semerádová, Daniela; Dubrovský, Martin; Eitzinger, Josef; Wardlow, Brian; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Žalud, Zdeněk

2015-04-01

Central Europe is generally not considered a drought-prone region, and the drought research and support is traditionally focused on the Mediterranean and southeastern part of the continent and drying trends there. However, Central Europe, including the Czech Republic, recently experienced a series of drought events with substantial impacts, especially on crop production. Because agriculture systems, and vegetation in general, have adapted to evenly distributed precipitation, the region is susceptible to even short-term droughts. The recent drought events may be the result of multi-decadal climate variability or a more general trend, with some studies showing a link to a more frequent occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to drought. This study introduces an innovation to the standard methodological approaches in evaluating drought climatology by analyzing soil moisture conditions over more than fifty years. This approach relies on state-of-the art observed weather data and tested soil moisture model, and focuses on the dynamic simulation of soil moisture content with high temporal (daily) and spatial (500 m) resolution in a diverse landscape. Statistically significant trends of decreasing soil moisture content were found, notably during May and June between 1961 and 2012. In contrast, trends toward higher soil moisture content were noted during the October-March time period. When the periods of 2001-2012 and 1961-1980 were compared, the probability of drought between April and June was found to increase by 50%. This indicates a loading of the "climate dice" toward drier conditions. The probability of extreme drought events has been also found to increase. These results support the concerns about the potentially increased severity of drought events in Central Europe under projected climate change and has been submitted to International Journal of Climatology. The study was funded by project "Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research" (no. OP VK CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248) and KONTAKT LH110010 helped plan and execute this study. Petr Hlavinka and Michael Hayes were supported by project "Partnership in Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies" (no. CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056), Rudolf Brazdil and Petr Dobrovolny by projects of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (P209/11/0956 and 13-04291S/P209, respectively), and Petr Štěpanek and Martin Možny by project of the National Agency for Agricultural Research no. QI91C054.

Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.

2010-01-01

The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g., decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records.

The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita

2014-05-01

Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim). Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central), Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors, to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Aasa, A., Jaagus, J., Ahas, R. and Sepp, M. 2004. The influence of atmospheric circulation on plant phenological phases in central and eastern Europe. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1551-1564. Gabaldón, C. et al. 2013. Evaluation of local strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century. European Geosciences Union - General Assembly2013 Vol. 15 (Vienna - Austria, 2013). Garnett, E. R. and Khandekar, M. L. 1992. The impact of large-scale atmospheric circulations and anomalies on Indian monsoon droughts and floods and on world grain yields-a statistical analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 61, 113-128. Jones, C. and Kiniry, J. 1986. CERES-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M University Press, 194. Rozas, V. and Garcia-Gonzalez, I. 2012. Non-stationary influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula. Int J Biometeorol 56, 787-800.

Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part I: Intrinsic SST Modes in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, Joanna; Giannakis, Dimitrios

2017-07-01

The variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal timescales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks associated with ad hoc pre-filtering of the input data are avoided, enabling recovery of low-frequency and intermittent modes not previously accessible via classical approaches. Here, a multiscale hierarchy of spatiotemporal modes is identified for Indo-Pacific SST in millennial control runs of CCSM4 and CM3 and in HadISST data. On interannual timescales, a mode with spatiotemporal patterns corresponding to the fundamental component of ENSO emerges, along with ENSO-modulated annual modes consistent with combination mode theory. The ENSO combination modes also feature prominent activity in the Indian Ocean, explaining significant fraction of the SST variance in regions associated with the Indian Ocean dipole. A pattern resembling the tropospheric biennial oscillation emerges in addition to ENSO and the associated combination modes. On multidecadal timescales, the dominant NLSA mode in the model data is predominantly active in the western tropical Pacific. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also emerges as a distinct NLSA mode, though with smaller explained variance than the western Pacific multidecadal mode. Analogous modes on interannual and decadal timescales are also identified in HadISST data for the industrial era, as well as in model data of comparable timespan, though decadal modes are either absent or of degraded quality in these datasets.

Hydrologic Drought in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timilsena, J.; Piechota, T.; Hidalgo, H.; Tootle, G.

2004-12-01

This paper focuses on drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) for the last five hundred years and evaluates the magnitude, severity and frequency of the current five-year drought. Hydrologic drought characteristics have been developed using the historical streamflow data and tree ring chronologies in the UCRB. Historical data include the Colorado River at Cisco and Lees Ferry, Green River, Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI), and the Z index. Three ring chronologies were used from 17 spatially representative sites in the UCRB from NOAA's International Tree Ring Data. A PCA based regression model procedures was used to reconstruct drought indices and streamflow in the UCRB. Hydrologic drought is characterized by its duration (duration in year in which cumulative deficit is continuously below thresholds), deficit magnitude (the cumulative deficit below the thresholds for consecutive years), severity (magnitude divided by the duration) and frequency. Results indicate that the current drought ranks anywhere from the 5th to 20th worst drought during the period 1493-2004, depending on the drought indicator and magnitude. From a short term perspective (using annual data), the current drought is more severe than if longer term average (i.e., 5 or 10 year averages) are used to define the drought.

Experimental droughts with rainout shelters: A methodological review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Forecast increases in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts with climate change may have extreme and extensive ecological consequences. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify...

European drought climatologies for the period 1950 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Barbosa, Paulo

2014-05-01

In the context of global climate change, characterized in particular by rising temperatures and more extreme weather events, drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters that has hit Europe frequently in the last decades. This paper presents climatologies of a set of drought indicators and derived drought characteristics at European scale for the period 1950-2012. Following the definitions in Spinoni et al. (2013), we computed drought frequency, duration, severity, and maximum intensity on a grid with spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. Calculations have been based on three well-known drought indicators calculated for time scales of 3 and 12 months: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Indicators have been calculated on a monthly basis for the period 1951-2012, using statistical distributions fitted to a 30-year baseline period (1971-2000). Input data stem from the E-OBS (version 9.0) European grids (0.25°x0.25°) provided by the Royal Meteorological Service of The Netherlands (KNMI). Monthly precipitation data served as input for all indicators, while mean monthly temperature data were used to calculate Thornthwaite's potential evapotranspiration necessary to calculate SPEI and RDI. On the basis of these indicators, we then quantified, on a monthly basis, the total European area under meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2012 and their intensity. We further sub-divided Europe into 14 regions according to geographical borders and climatic features and for each of them we computed linear trends of different drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, duration, severity, and intensity) for the entire period, and for the sub-periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Results show that the Mediterranean, the Balkans, and Eastern Europe are characterized by increasing drought frequency, duration, severity, and maximum intensity, while Russia and Northern Europe are characterized by a decrease, in particular with respect to drought severity. Finally, the most relevant drought events per region are presented. Spinoni J., Naumann G., Carrao, H., Barbosa P., and Vogt J.V. (2013): World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3875.

Economics and societal considerations of drought

Treesearch

Jeff Prestemon; Linda Kruger; Karen L. Abt; Michael Bowker; Consuelo Brandeis; Dave Calkin; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Charlotte Ham; Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey Kline; Travis Warziniack

2016-01-01

The economic and social effects of drought are diverse and related to physical characteristics of drought, including spatial extent, severity, duration, and frequency that combine to determine drought’s overall effects on society. Most of the attention given to economic and social impacts of drought focuses on adverse consequences, but technology, public...

Rangeland drought: Effects, restoration, and adaptation [Chap. 8

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch; Rosemary L. Pendleton; Matt C. Reeves; Jeffrey E. Ott; Francis F. Kilkenny; Jack L. Butler; Jacqueline P. Ott; Jeremy R. Pinto; Paulette L. Ford; Justin B. Runyon; Mark A. Rumble; Stanley G. Kitchen

2016-01-01

Drought can have severe impacts on rangeland ecosystems in North America. For the purposes of this chapter, rangelands include natural grasslands, savannas, shrublands, many deserts, tundras, alpine communities, marshes, meadows, and woodlands. Drought impacts vary depending on the severity, frequency, duration, and aerial extent of the drought(s); how the land is...

Drought as a Catalyst for Early Medieval European Subsistence Crises and Violence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludlow, Francis; Cook, Edward; Kostick, Conor; McCormick, Michael

2016-04-01

Tree-ring records provide one of most reliable means of reconstructing past climatic conditions, from longer-term multi-decadal fluctuations in temperature and precipitation to inter-annual variability, including years that experienced extreme weather. When combined with written records of past societal behaviour and the incidence of major societal stresses (e.g., famine, disease, and conflict), such records hold the potential to shed new light on historical interactions between climate and society. Recent years have seen the continued development of long dendroclimatic reconstructions, including, most recently the development of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA; Cook et al., 2015) which for the first time makes available a robust reconstruction of spring-summer hydroclimatic conditions and extremes for the greater European region, including the entirety of the Dark Ages. In this paper, we examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and well-dated reports of severe drought in early medieval European annals and chronicles, and find a clear statistical correspondence, further confirming the accuracy of the OWDA and its importance as an independent record of hydroclimatic extremes, a resource that can now be drawn upon in both paleoclimatology and studies of climatic impacts on human society. We proceed to examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and the incidence of a range of major societal stresses (scarcity and famine, epidemic disease, and mass human mortality) drawn from an exhaustive survey of early medieval European annals and chronicles. The outcome of this comparison firmly implicates drought as a significant driver of major societal stresses during early medieval times. Using a record of the violent killings of societal elites recorded on a continuous annual basis in medieval Irish monastic annals, we further examine the role of hydroclimatic extremes as triggers in medieval violence and conflict.

Evaluation of Drought Occurrence and Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Chen, J.; Wang, K.; Shi, H.

2015-12-01

This study uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model to simulate the hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The observed streamflow data in the Pearl River Basin for the period 1951-2000 are used to evaluate the model simulation results. Further, in this study, the 55 datasets of climate projection from 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the IPCC AR4 (SRES A2/A1B/B1) and AR5 (RCP 2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5) are used to drive the VIC model at 0.5°× 0.5°spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. Then, the monthly Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) are generated to detect the drought occurrence. This study validates the GCMs projection through comparing the observed precipitation for the period of 2000-2013. Then, spatial variation of the frequency change of moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought are analyzed for the 21st century. The study reveals that the frequencies of severe drought and extreme drought occurrences over the Pearl River Basin increase along with time. Specifically, for the scenario of AR5 RCP 8.5, the east and west parts of the Pearl River Basin most likely suffer from severe drought and extreme drought with an increased frequency throughout the 21st century.

Oscillations in land surface hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labat, D.

2006-02-01

Hydrological cycle is the perpetual movement of water throughout the various component of the global Earth's system. Focusing on the land surface component of this cycle, the determination of the succession of dry and humid periods is of high importance with respect to water resources management but also with respect to global geochemical cycles. This knowledge requires a specified estimation of recent fluctuations of the land surface cycle at continental and global scales. Our approach leans towards a new estimation of freshwater discharge to oceans from 1875 to 1994 as recently proposed by Labat et al. [Labat, D., Goddéris, Y., Probst, JL, Guyot, JL, 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 631-642]. Wavelet analyses of the annual freshwater discharge time series reveal an intermittent multiannual variability (4- to 8-y, 14- to 16-y and 20- to 25-y fluctuations) and a persistent multidecadal 30- to 40-y variability. Continent by continent, reasonable relationships between land-water cycle oscillations and climate forcing (such as ENSO, NAO or sea surface temperature) are proposed even though if such relationships or correlations remain very complex. The high intermittency of interannual oscillations and the existence of persistent multidecadal fluctuations make prediction difficult for medium-term variability of droughts and high-flows, but lead to a more optimistic diagnostic for long-term fluctuations prediction.

Vegetation Greening and Climate Change Promote Multidecadal Rises of Global Land Evapotranspiration

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ke; Kimball, John S.; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Running, Steven W.; Hong, Yang; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Yu, Zhongbo

2015-01-01

Recent studies showed that anomalous dry conditions and limited moisture supply roughly between 1998 and 2008, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, led to reduced vegetation productivity and ceased growth in land evapotranspiration (ET). However, natural variability of Earth’s climate system can degrade capabilities for identifying climate trends. Here we produced a long-term (1982–2013) remote sensing based land ET record and investigated multidecadal changes in global ET and underlying causes. The ET record shows a significant upward global trend of 0.88 mm yr−2 (P < 0.001) over the 32-year period, mainly driven by vegetation greening (0.018% per year; P < 0.001) and rising atmosphere moisture demand (0.75 mm yr−2; P = 0.016). Our results indicate that reduced ET growth between 1998 and 2008 was an episodic phenomenon, with subsequent recovery of the ET growth rate after 2008. Terrestrial precipitation also shows a positive trend of 0.66 mm yr−2 (P = 0.08) over the same period consistent with expected water cycle intensification, but this trend is lower than coincident increases in evaporative demand and ET, implying a possibility of cumulative water supply constraint to ET. Continuation of these trends will likely exacerbate regional drought-induced disturbances, especially during regional dry climate phases associated with strong El Niño events. PMID:26514110

Vegetation Greening and Climate Change Promote Multidecadal Rises of Global Land Evapotranspiration.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; Kimball, John S; Nemani, Ramakrishna R; Running, Steven W; Hong, Yang; Gourley, Jonathan J; Yu, Zhongbo

2015-10-30

Recent studies showed that anomalous dry conditions and limited moisture supply roughly between 1998 and 2008, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, led to reduced vegetation productivity and ceased growth in land evapotranspiration (ET). However, natural variability of Earth's climate system can degrade capabilities for identifying climate trends. Here we produced a long-term (1982-2013) remote sensing based land ET record and investigated multidecadal changes in global ET and underlying causes. The ET record shows a significant upward global trend of 0.88 mm yr(-2) (P < 0.001) over the 32-year period, mainly driven by vegetation greening (0.018% per year; P < 0.001) and rising atmosphere moisture demand (0.75 mm yr(-2); P = 0.016). Our results indicate that reduced ET growth between 1998 and 2008 was an episodic phenomenon, with subsequent recovery of the ET growth rate after 2008. Terrestrial precipitation also shows a positive trend of 0.66 mm yr(-2) (P = 0.08) over the same period consistent with expected water cycle intensification, but this trend is lower than coincident increases in evaporative demand and ET, implying a possibility of cumulative water supply constraint to ET. Continuation of these trends will likely exacerbate regional drought-induced disturbances, especially during regional dry climate phases associated with strong El Niño events.

Investigating Differences between Modeled Historical and Station Calculated Drought

EPA Science Inventory

With growing concern over increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, there is an imperative need to investigate drought under different future scenarios for the contiguous U.S. To assess future drought relative to a historical baseline, drought occurrence (numbe...

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

2017-01-01

Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake-sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario.

PubMed

Laird, Kathleen R; Haig, Heather A; Ma, Susan; Kingsbury, Melanie V; Brown, Thomas A; Lewis, C F Michael; Oglesby, Robert J; Cumming, Brian F

2012-09-01

Multi-decadal to centennial-scale shifts in effective moisture over the past two millennia are inferred from sedimentary records from six lakes spanning a ~250 km region in northwest Ontario. This is the first regional application of a technique developed to reconstruct drought from drainage lakes (open lakes with surface outlets). This regional network of proxy drought records is based on individual within-lake calibration models developed using diatom assemblages collected from surface sediments across a water-depth gradient. Analysis of diatom assemblages from sediment cores collected close to the near-shore ecological boundary between benthic and planktonic diatom taxa indicated this boundary shifted over time in all lakes. These shifts are largely dependent on climate-driven influences, and can provide a sensitive record of past drought. Our lake-sediment records indicate two periods of synchronous signals, suggesting a common large-scale climate forcing. The first is a period of prolonged aridity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c. 900-1400 CE). Documentation of aridity across this region expands the known spatial extent of the MCA megadrought into a region that historically has not experienced extreme droughts such as those in central and western north America. The second synchronous period is the recent signal of the past ~100 years, which indicates a change to higher effective moisture that may be related to anthropogenic forcing on climate. This approach has the potential to fill regional gaps, where many previous paleo-lake depth methods (based on deeper centrally located cores) were relatively insensitive. By filling regional gaps, a better understanding of past spatial patterns in drought can be used to assess the sensitivity and realism of climate model projections of future climate change. This type of data is especially important for validating high spatial resolution, regional climate models. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Hansen, J.; Goldberg, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruedy, R.

1990-01-01

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of regional drought occurrence in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Su-Bin; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Kim, Do-Woo

2014-07-01

Droughts in the East Asian region (105-150°E, 20-50°N) are quantified using the effective drought index (EDI) over a period of 43 years, from 1962 to 2004, and the East Asian region was classified into six subregions on the basis of similarity in drought climate: (D1) South China; (D2) lower region of the Yangtze River, South Korea, and Central/South Japan; (D3) Central China and North Korea; (D4) Northwest China and middle region of the Yangtze River; (D5) North China; and (D6) Northeast China and North Japan. The EDI time series was then summarized for the different drought subregions and a drought map was created that shows the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional drought occurrence in East Asia. The map shows that in subregions, D1, D2, D3, D4, D5, and D6, there were 50 (11.63 per decade), 36 (8.37 per decade), 30 (6.98 per decade), 28 (6.51 per decade), 29 (6.74 per decade), and 33 (7.67 per decade) drought occurrences, respectively. The most common characteristic of droughts in the subregions is that short-term droughts (<200 days) which mainly occur in spring and summer, whereas long-term droughts (≥200 days) mainly occur in autumn and winter. D1 shows the highest frequency of short-term droughts. Short-term droughts occur more frequently than long-term droughts in D2 and D3, but D4 and D6 showed a higher frequency of long-term droughts than short-term droughts. D5 showed a similar frequency of short- and long-term droughts. Drought onset dates are evenly distributed throughout the year for D1, D2, and D3, but distributed mostly in spring and summer in D4, D5, and D6. All the differences are linked to variations in the precipitation cycle of each subregion. In terms of annual variations in drought occurrence, D2 showed weakening droughts (the annual lowest EDI shows a positive trend), whereas the other subregions showed intensifying droughts (the annual lowest EDI shows a negative trend). The greatest intensifying trend was observed in D5, followed by D3, D6, D4, and D1.

Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.

PubMed

Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L

2014-07-01

Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Harris, Phil P; Huntingford, Chris; Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Jones, Chris D; Jupp, Tim E; Marengo, José A; Nobre, Carlos A

2008-05-08

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region (Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems, and to account for one-tenth of global, net primary productivity. The resilience of the forest to the combined pressures of deforestation and global warming is therefore of great concern, especially as some general circulation models (GCMs) predict a severe drying of Amazonia in the twenty-first century. Here we analyse these climate projections with reference to the 2005 drought in western Amazonia, which was associated with unusually warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that reduction of dry-season (July-October) rainfall in western Amazonia correlates well with an index of the north-south SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic (the 'Atlantic N-S gradient'). Our climate model is unusual among current GCMs in that it is able to reproduce this relationship and also the observed twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic N-S gradient, provided that the effects of aerosols are included in the model. Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.

Enhanced Biennial Variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic Capacitor Effect after the Early 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, L.; Yu, J. Y.; Paek, H.

2016-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific subtropical highs (PSHs) have major impacts on social and ecological systems through their influences on severe natural hazards including tropical storms, coastal erosions, droughts and floods. The ability to forecast ENSO and PSHs requires an understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms that drive their variability. Here we present an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest the Atlantic as a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including ENSO and PSHs in recent decades, while the pacemaker was previously considered to be mainly lied within the Pacific or Indian Oceans. The "charging" (i.e., ENSO imprinting the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) via an atmospheric bridge mechanism) and "discharging" (i.e., the NTA SST triggering the following ENSO via a subtropical teleconnection mechanism) process works alternately, generating the biennial rhythmic changes in the Pacific. After the early-1990s, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and global warming provides more favorable background states over the NTA that enable the Atlantic capacitor effect to operate more efficiently, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific which may increase the occurrence frequency of severe natural hazard events. The results highlight the increasing important role of the Atlantic-Pacific coupling as an important pacemaker of the ENSO cycle in recent decades.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

a New Framework for Characterising Simulated Droughts for Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Rashid, M.; Johnson, F.

2017-12-01

Significant attention has been focussed on metrics for quantifying drought. Lesser attention has been given to the unsuitability of current metrics in quantifying drought in a changing climate due to the clear non-stationarity in potential and actual evapotranspiration well into the future (Asadi-Zarch et al, 2015). This talk presents a new basis for simulating drought designed specifically for use with climate model simulations. Given the known uncertainty of climate model rainfall simulations, along with their inability to represent low-frequency variability attributes, the approach here adopts a predictive model for drought using selected atmospheric indicators. This model is based on a wavelet decomposition of relevant atmospheric predictors to filter out less relevant frequencies and formulate a better characterisation of the drought metric chosen as response. Once ascertained using observed precipication and associated atmospheric variables, these can be formulated from GCM simulations using a multivariate bias correction tool (Mehrotra and Sharma, 2016) that accounts for low-frequency variability, and a regression tool that accounts for nonlinear dependence (Sharma and Mehrotra, 2014). Use of only the relevant frequencies, as well as the corrected representation of cross-variable dependence, allows greater accuracy in characterising observed drought, from GCM simulations. Using simulations from a range of GCMs across Australia, we show here that this new method offers considerable advantages in representing drought compared to traditionally followed alternatives that rely on modelled rainfall instead. Reference:Asadi Zarch, M. A., B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma (2015), Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183-195. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma (2016), A Multivariate Quantile-Matching Bias Correction Approach with Auto- and Cross-Dependence across Multiple Time Scales: Implications for Downscaling, Journal of Climate, 29(10), 3519-3539. Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra (2014), An information theoretic alternative to model a natural system using observational information alone, Water Resources Research, 50, 650-660, doi:10.1002/2013WR013845.

Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

2016-02-01

Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Richard P.; Ibanez, Ines; D’Orangeville, Loic; ...

2016-09-13

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ belowmore » ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.« less

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, Richard P.; Ibanez, Ines; D’Orangeville, Loic

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ belowmore » ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.« less

Legacy effects of a regional drought on aboveground net primary production in six central US grasslands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and severity of drought worldwide, directly affecting most ecosystem types. Consequently, drought legacy effects (drought-induced alterations in ecosystem function postdrought) are expected to become more common in ecosystems varying from dese...

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Dust Deposition in the San Juan Mountains, CO: A Network of Late Holocene Lake Sediment Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcusa, S.; Routson, C.; McKay, N.

2017-12-01

Millions of stakeholders living in the arid southwestern US rely on snowmelt from the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. However, dust deposition on snow accelerates snowmelt, challenging water management. Dustiness in the southwestern US is primarily mediated by drought, which is projected to increase in frequency and severity. Over the past several millennia, multidecadal-length megadroughts are hypothesized to have enhanced regional dustiness. These past megadroughts were more frequent during the Roman (ca. 1-400 CE) and Medieval (ca. 800-1300 CE) time periods and were similar in duration and severity to those projected for the future. Developing an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of past dust deposition in the San Juan Mountains will help inform adaptation strategies for future droughts. A network of short sediment cores from six alpine lakes in the San Juan Mountains were collected in 2016 and 2017 to investigate the spatial patterns of dust deposition. The range in lake basin characteristics in the network, such as catchment size, helps to constrain the influence of secondary dust deposition. Grain size analysis and X-ray Fluorescence were combined with radiocarbon dating to trace the temporal patterns in dust flux over the Late Holocene (the last 2000 years). The End-member Modelling Algorithm (EMMA) was used to estimate the dust proportion in the lake sediment, distinguishing from locally derived catchment material. Comparisons to modern dust-on-snow samples were made to identify the dust size distribution. The results show that deposition trends were not uniform between the south-eastern and north-western San Juans, with increasing trends towards the present in the former, possibly reflecting a shift in dust sources associated with changes in wind speed and direction. Dust levels greater than long term averages were recorded during the Medieval and Roman periods. The network also showed the influence of lake basin parameters, such as the ratio of lake surface to drainage area, on dust flux levels. Lakes with a larger catchment compared to the lake surface area receive more dust, possibly including secondary deposition. The results support the hypothesis that past megadroughts occurred in a dustier setting with implications for future drought adaptation and water management.

Lake sediment isotope records of hydroclimatic changes in the Pacific Northwest over the last two thousand years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M.; Mann, M. E.; Ortiz, J. D.

2012-12-01

Recent drought conditions and greater water demand caused by population expansion are placing increasing stress on the ecosystems and economies of western North America. Variations in drought frequency and intensity in this region are primarily controlled by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which affect precipitation and temperature on interannual to centennial timescales. During the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) the tropical Pacific Ocean was likely characterized by shifts toward more El Niño and La Niña like mean state conditions, respectively, which produced changes in water availability that have no historic precedent. Here we report isotopic evidence (sediment δ18O records) from 9 lakes in the southern Yukon, central British Columbia, and the northwestern United States indicating that the LIA was a time of exceptional dryness in the Pacific Northwest and that the MCA was relatively wetter. We compare the lake sediment isotope data to synoptic ocean-atmosphere paleoproxy datasets as well as records of external forcing (i.e., solar and volcanic) that span the last 1-2 thousand years to ascertain the influence of climate system responses to external forcing on precipitation-evaporation balance in western North America. Modeling and proxy data comparisons have described links between the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean and radiative forcing on multi-decadal to centennial time scales during the middle and late Holocene. Analysis of proxy data including tree rings and speleothems have documented connections between inferred solar activity maxima, La Niña like conditions in the tropical Pacific and reduced water availability in the American southwest. Lake sediment δ18O data from the Pacific Northwest evince a pattern opposite that of the southwest in which periods of greater solar activity correspond with wetter hydroclimatic conditions, and vice versa, similar to the observed, north-south antiphasing pattern of drought linked to ENSO dynamics and consistent with the theorized "ocean dynamical thermostat" response of the tropical Pacific to radiative forcing.; October-March precipitation anomalies (%, 1900-2007) associated with ENSO (Jun-Nov) and Northern Annular Mode (NAM) (Jan-Mar) conditions that likely characterized the MCA (left) and LIA (right).

Monitoring of Drought Events in Gorontalo Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koem, S.; Rusiyah

2017-12-01

Gorontalo Regency is a region vulnerable to drought. Drought is one of meteorological disaster because it tends to bring negative impact on various sectors. This study used rainfall data from 1981 to 2016 (35 years). The research employed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to monitor and calculate the level of drought from the duration, intensity, and frequency in different time scales. The SPI value was calculated using the DrinC and ArcGIS software is used to create drought spatial distribution maps. The mean intensity of drought simultaneously followed the drought magnitude in Bilato station. The peak of drought in SPI-3 occurs in 1982, 2009 and 2016. In 1982, about 76.5% of the stations showed that the peak of drought events for SPI-3 in October to December. Moreover, 94% of the stations reveals that the peak of drought events for SPI-6 occur in July to December 1982. This shows that drought in 1982 was more severe than other years in the last three decades. Linear trends of drought for the period of 1981 to 2016 in most stations show an increasing trend, hence, it can be concluded that Gorontalo Regency experienced an increase in the wet period. Changes in time-scale caused the tendency for a high number of dry period frequencies. Drought spatial distribution could be used to determine the priority plans in finding the solutions due to droughts that occur in drought-vulnerable areas. Drought analysis using SPI could contribute to the decision-making in the future as an effort to minimize the impact of drought.

Drought Resilience and Water Conservation Technical Brief

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In many areas of the US, the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events are increasing, this brief highlights EPA drought and conservation activities across the nation and includes links to additional materials and reference documents.

The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,

2015-01-01

Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.

Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

Spatio-temporal variability of droughts and terrestrial water storage over Lake Chad Basin using independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa; Ferreira, Vagner G.

2016-09-01

Lake Chad has recently been perceived to be completely desiccated and almost extinct due to insufficient published ground observations. Given the high spatial variability of rainfall in the region, and the fact that extreme climatic conditions (for example, droughts) could be intensifying in the Lake Chad basin (LCB) due to human activities, a spatio-temporal approach to drought analysis becomes essential. This study employed independent component analysis (ICA), a fourth-order cumulant statistics, to decompose standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised soil moisture index (SSI), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into spatial and temporal patterns over the LCB. In addition, this study uses satellite altimetry data to estimate variations in the Lake Chad water levels, and further employs relevant climate teleconnection indices (El-Niño Southern Oscillation-ENSO, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation-AMO, and Atlantic Meridional Mode-AMM) to examine their links to the observed drought temporal patterns over the basin. From the spatio-temporal drought analysis, temporal evolutions of SPI at 12 month aggregation show relatively wet conditions in the last two decades (although with marked alterations) with the 2012-2014 period being the wettest. In addition to the improved rainfall conditions during this period, there was a statistically significant increase of 0.04 m/yr in altimetry water levels observed over Lake Chad between 2008 and 2014, which confirms a shift in the hydrological conditions of the basin. Observed trend in TWS changes during the 2002-2014 period shows a statistically insignificant increase of 3.0 mm/yr at the centre of the basin, coinciding with soil moisture deficit indicated by the temporal evolutions of SSI at all monthly accumulations during the 2002-2003 and 2009-2012 periods. Further, SPI at 3 and 6 month scales indicated fluctuating drought conditions at the extreme south of the basin, coinciding with a statistically insignificant decline in TWS of about 4.5 mm/yr at the southern catchment of the basin. Finally, correlation analyses indicate that ENSO, AMO, and AMM are associated with extreme rainfall conditions in the basin, with AMO showing the strongest association (statistically significant correlation of 0.55) with SPI 12 month aggregation. Therefore, this study provides a framework that will support drought monitoring in the LCB.

Analysis of the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of vegetative drought and its relationship with meteorological factors in China from 1982 to 2010.

PubMed

Shen, Qiu; Liang, Liang; Luo, Xiang; Li, Yanjun; Zhang, Lianpeng

2017-08-25

Drought is a complex natural phenomenon that can cause reduced water supplies and can consequently have substantial effects on agriculture and socioeconomic activities. The objective of this study was to gain a better understanding of the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of vegetative drought and its relationship with meteorological factors in China. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) dataset calculated from NOAA/AVHRR images from 1982 to 2010 was used to analyse the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of vegetative drought in China. This study also examined the trends in meteorological factors and their influences on drought using monitoring data collected from 686 national ground meteorological stations. The results showed that the VCI appeared to slowly rise in China from 1982 to 2010. From 1982 to 1999, the VCI rose slowly. Then, around 2000, the VCI exhibited a severe fluctuation before it entered into a relatively stable stage. Drought frequencies in China were higher, showing a spatial distribution feature of "higher in the north and lower in the south". Based on the different levels of drought, the frequencies of mild and moderate drought in four geographical areas were higher, and the frequency of severe drought was higher only in ecologically vulnerable areas, such as the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. Drought was mainly influenced by meteorological factors, which differed regionally. In the northern region, the main influential factor was sunshine duration, while the other factors showed minimal effects. In the southern region and Tibetan Plateau, the main influential factors were sunshine duration and temperature. In the northwestern region, the main influential factors were wind velocity and station atmospheric pressure.

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

2017-07-01

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8-12°N, 20°W-20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031-2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1-2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1-2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.

Environmental science: Trends in ecosystem recovery from drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe

2017-08-01

An analysis suggests that the time taken for ecosystems to recover from drought increased during the twentieth century. If the frequency of drought events rises, some ecosystems might never have the chance to fully recover. See Letter p.202

An improved method for standardized mapping of drought conditions

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Virtually all U.S. forests experience droughts, although the intensity and frequency of the droughts vary widely between, as well as, within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Generally, forests throughout the Western United States are subject to annual seasonal droughts, while forests in the Eastern United States can be characterized by one of two...

Recent drought conditions in the Conterminous United States

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary widely both between and within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Forests in the Western United States generally exhibit a pattern of annual seasonal droughts. Forests in the Eastern United States tend to exhibit one of two prevailing patterns: random occasional droughts...

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Lin, Wei

2016-01-01

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America

PubMed Central

Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.

PubMed

Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P

2017-06-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.

Tree ring reconstructed rainfall over the southern Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Lidio; Stahle, David; Villalba, Ricardo; Torbenson, Max; Feng, Song; Cook, Edward

2017-07-01

Moisture sensitive tree ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete have been developed from seasonally dry forests in the southern Amazon Basin and used to reconstruct wet season rainfall totals from 1799 to 2012, adding over 150 years of rainfall estimates to the short instrumental record for the region. The reconstruction is correlated with the same atmospheric variables that influence the instrumental measurements of wet season rainfall. Anticyclonic circulation over midlatitude South America promotes equatorward surges of cold and relatively dry extratropical air that converge with warm moist air to form deep convection and heavy rainfall over this sector of the southern Amazon Basin. Interesting droughts and pluvials are reconstructed during the preinstrumental nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the tree ring reconstruction suggests that the strong multidecadal variability in instrumental and reconstructed wet season rainfall after 1950 may have been unmatched since 1799.

Multi-decadal Decline of Southeast United States Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, M.; Huffaker, R.; Elliott, E. A.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented population growth combined with environmental and energy demands have led to water conflict in the Southeastern United States. The states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama have recently engaged in litigation on minimum in-stream flows to maintain ecosystems, fisheries and energy demands while satisfying a growing thirst in metropolitan Atlanta. A study of Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) streamflow identified a declining pattern of flow over the past 25 years with increased dry periods being observed in the last decade. When evaluating calendar year streamflow for (56) unimpaired streamflow stations, a robust period of streamflow in the 1970's was followed by a consistent decline in streamflow from 1990 to present. In evaluating 20-year, 10-year and 5-year time periods of annual streamflow volume, the past decade reveals historic lows for each of these periods. When evaluating the influence of high frequency (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) and low frequency (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation - AMO) climatic phenomenon, the shift of the AMO from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990's combined with multiple La Nina events may be associated with the streamflow decline.

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

DOE PAGES

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; ...

2017-11-17

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlingsmore » of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7–9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.« less

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

2017-11-01

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlingsmore » of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P . ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occurs, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.« less

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlingsmore » of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7–9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.« less

Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D. H.; Wu, D.; Huang, R.; Wang, L. N.; Yang, G. Y.

2013-07-01

Abrupt drought-flood change events caused by atmospheric circulation anomalies have occurred frequently and widely in recent years, which has caused great losses and casualties in China. In this paper, we focus on investigating whether there will be a rainfall occurrence with higher intensity after a drought period in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin. Combined with the Chinese climate divisions and the basin's DEM (digital elevation model), the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961-2011, the changes of drought times with different magnitudes are analyzed, and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the changes of drought times for different years. The results of the study indicated that the occurrence times of different drought levels show an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas I and II, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the area III, IV and V, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The areas VI and VII are located at the mountains with high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought times increase, areas I, II and V, which are located on the coastal and in the valley or basin, are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area, where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur. (4) The local rainfall affected by multiple factors is closely related with drought occurrence. The characteristics between the first rainfall intensity after a drought period and different drought magnitudes (or drought occurrence times) are preliminarily examined in this paper, but its formation mechanism still requires further research.

Landsat and GRACE observations of arid wetland dynamics in a dryland river system under multi-decadal hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zunyi; Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Devadas, Rakhesh; Clarke, Kenneth; Lewis, Megan

2016-12-01

Arid wetlands are important for biodiversity conservation, but sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability and hydroclimatic events. Amplification of the water cycle, including the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and wet extremes, is expected to alter spatial and temporal hydrological patterns in arid wetlands globally, with potential threats to ecosystem services and their functioning. Despite these pressing challenges, the ecohydrological interactions and resilience of arid wetlands to highly variable water regimes over long time periods remain largely unknown. Recent broad-scale drought and floods over Australia provide unique opportunities to improve our understanding of arid wetland ecosystem responses to hydroclimatic extremes. Here we analysed the ecohydrological dynamics of the Coongie Lakes arid wetland in central Australia, one of the world's largest Ramsar-designated wetlands, using more than two decades (1988-2011) of vegetation and floodwater extent retrievals derived from Landsat satellite observations. To explore the impacts of large-scale hydrological fluctuations on the arid wetland, we further coupled Landsat measurements with Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Pronounced seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of flood and vegetation activities were observed over the wetland, with variations in vegetation growth extent highly correlated with flood extent (r = 0.64, p < 0.05) that ranged from nearly zero to 3456 km2. We reported the hydrological dynamics and associated ecosystem responses to be largely driven by the two phases (El Niño and La Niña) of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean-atmosphere system. Changes in flood and vegetation extent were better explained by GRACE-TWSA (r = 0.8, lag = 0 month) than rainfall (r = 0.34, lag = 3 months) over the water source area, demonstrating that TWS is a valuable hydrological indicator for complex dryland river systems. The protracted Millennium Drought from 2001 to 2009 resulted in long-term absence of major flood events, which substantially suppressed wetland vegetation growth. However, the 2010-11 La Niña induced flooding events led to an exceptionally large resurgence of vegetation, with a mean vegetation growth extent anomaly exceeding the historical average (1988-2011) by more than 1.5 standard deviations, suggesting a significant resilience of arid wetland ecosystems to climate variability. This study showed the ecological functioning of arid wetlands is particularly sensitive to large-scale hydrological fluctuations and extreme drought conditions, and vulnerable to future altered water regimes due to climate change. The methods developed herein can be applied to arid wetlands located in other dryland river systems across the globe.

Chapter4 - Drought patterns in the conterminous United States and Hawaii.

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; William D. Smith; John W. Coulston

2014-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary widely both between and within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Forests in the Western United States generally exhibit a pattern of annual seasonal droughts. Forests in the Eastern United States tend to exhibit one of two prevailing patterns: random occasional droughts...

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Cultural and Climatic History of Cobá, a Lowland Maya City in Quintana Roo, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyden, Barbara W.; Brenner, Mark; Dahlin, Bruce H.

1998-01-01

Lake Cobá, within the archaeological site of Cobá, provides evidence bearing on lowland Maya development. Palynological and geochemical data record multidecadal precipitation cycles from a 8.80-m, >8370-yr lake-sediment sequence terminating on bedrock. Late Classic sedimentation rates are rapid, but an anthropogenically derived colluvium layer is lacking. Initial vegetation was medium semi-deciduous and swamp forest. Forest clearance began 1650 B.C. (Early Preclassic) and maize first occurred at 850 B.C. (Middle Preclassic). Lakeside milpas existed until A.D. 720 (Late Classic) and then were moved from the city center as urbanization intensified and Lake Cobá was diked as a reservoir. Cobá was at most briefly vacated during the Classic Collapse and was abandoned after A.D. 1240, although some habitation persisted. The paleoecological record matches the archaeological history for Cobá, but pervasive disturbance muted the climatic signal, as the Late Classic drought is barely evident. The question whether economic trees were maintained within the city is unresolved. Maize cultivation allowed the Maya to develop a complex society and support a large population, but dependence on maize was ultimately doomed by variable rainfall. Precipitation in extreme years was insufficient to support crops, while native vegetation was not directly affected by drought that devastated Maya agriculture.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE PAGES

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.; ...

2018-09-01

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

PubMed

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D

2018-04-27

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less

Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhang, Miao; Wang, Linying; Zhou, Tian

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961-2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118-262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21-99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982-2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11-26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post-processing, while the difference between the two predictions decreases. This suggests that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for the hydrological drought forecasting in the Anthropocene, and the predictability for human interventions needs more attention.

Regional analysis and derivation of copula-based drought Severity-Area-Frequency curve in Lake Urmia basin, Iran.

PubMed

Amirataee, Babak; Montaseri, Majid; Rezaie, Hossein

2018-01-15

Droughts are extreme events characterized by temporal duration and spatial large-scale effects. In general, regional droughts are affected by general circulation of the atmosphere (at large-scale) and regional natural factors, including the topography, natural lakes, the position relative to the center and the path of the ocean currents (at small-scale), and they don't cover the exact same effects in a wide area. Therefore, drought Severity-Area-Frequency (S-A-F) curve investigation is an essential task to develop decision making rule for regional drought management. This study developed the copula-based joint probability distribution of drought severity and percent of area under drought across the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. To do this end, one-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values during the 1971-2013 were applied across 24 rainfall stations in the study area. Then, seven copula functions of various families, including Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, Joe, Galambos, Plackett and Normal copulas, were used to model the joint probability distribution of drought severity and drought area. Using AIC, BIC and RMSE criteria, the Frank copula was selected as the most appropriate copula in order to develop the joint probability distribution of severity-percent of area under drought across the study area. Based on the Frank copula, the drought S-A-F curve for the study area was derived. The results indicated that severe/extreme drought and non-drought (wet) behaviors have affected the majority of study areas (Lake Urmia basin). However, the area covered by the specific semi-drought effects is limited and has been subject to significant variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

Spatio-temporal trends of drought by forest type in the conterminous United States, 1960-2013

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews

2014-01-01

Droughts are common in virtually all U.S. forests, but their frequency and intensity vary within forest ecosystems (Hanson and Weltzin 2000). Accounting for the long-term influence of droughts within a region is difficult due to variations in the spatial extent and intensities over a period. Therefore, we created a cumulative drought severity index (CDSI) (Fig. 1) for...

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable decision making.Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Regional projections, WRF.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER). This analysis was carried out in the ALHAMBRA computer infrastructure at the University of Granada.

Tree Rings Show Recent High Summer-Autumn Precipitation in Northwest Australia Is Unprecedented within the Last Two Centuries

PubMed Central

O'Donnell, Alison J.; Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Page, Gerald F. M.; Grierson, Pauline F.

2015-01-01

An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec–May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar–May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995–2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. PMID:26039148

Tree Rings Show Recent High Summer-Autumn Precipitation in Northwest Australia Is Unprecedented within the Last Two Centuries.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Alison J; Cook, Edward R; Palmer, Jonathan G; Turney, Chris S M; Page, Gerald F M; Grierson, Pauline F

2015-01-01

An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec-May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910-2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar-May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910-2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995-2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode.

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

A Remotely Sensed Global Terrestrial Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Q.; Zhao, M.; Kimball, J. S.; McDowell, N. G.; Running, S. W.

2012-12-01

Regional drought and flooding from extreme climatic events are increasing in frequency and severity, with significant adverse eco-social impacts. Detecting and monitoring drought at regional to global scales remains challenging, despite the availability of various drought indices and widespread availability of potentially synergistic global satellite observational records. We developed a method to generate a near-real-time remotely sensed Drought Severity Index (DSI) to monitor and detect drought globally at 1-km spatial resolution and regular 8-day, monthly and annual frequencies. The new DSI integrates and exploits information from current operational satellite based terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) and Vegetation greenness Index (NDVI) products, which are sensitive to vegetation water stress. Specifically, our approach determines the annual DSI departure from its normal (2000-2011) using the remotely sensed ratio of ET to potential ET (PET) and NDVI. The DSI results were derived globally and captured documented major regional droughts over the last decade, including severe events in Europe (2003), the Amazon (2005 and 2010), and Russia (2010). The DSI corresponded favorably (r=0.43) with the precipitation based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), while both indices captured similar wetting and drying patterns. The DSI was also correlated with satellite based vegetation net primary production (NPP) records, indicating that the combined use of these products may be useful for assessing water supply and ecosystem interactions, including drought impacts on crop yields and forest productivity. The remotely-sensed global terrestrial DSI enhances capabilities for near-real-time drought monitoring to assist decision makers in regional drought assessment and mitigation efforts, and without many of the constraints of more traditional drought monitoring methods.

Grassland Resistance and Resilience after Drought Depends on Management Intensity and Species Richness

PubMed Central

Vogel, Anja; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Weigelt, Alexandra

2012-01-01

The degree to which biodiversity may promote the stability of grasslands in the light of climatic variability, such as prolonged summer drought, has attracted considerable interest. Studies so far yielded inconsistent results and in addition, the effect of different grassland management practices on their response to drought remains an open question. We experimentally combined the manipulation of prolonged summer drought (sheltered vs. unsheltered sites), plant species loss (6 levels of 60 down to 1 species) and management intensity (4 levels varying in mowing frequency and amount of fertilizer application). Stability was measured as resistance and resilience of aboveground biomass production in grasslands against decreased summer precipitation, where resistance is the difference between drought treatments directly after drought induction and resilience is the difference between drought treatments in spring of the following year. We hypothesized that (i) management intensification amplifies biomass decrease under drought, (ii) resistance decreases with increasing species richness and with management intensification and (iii) resilience increases with increasing species richness and with management intensification. We found that resistance and resilience of grasslands to summer drought are highly dependent on management intensity and partly on species richness. Frequent mowing reduced the resistance of grasslands against drought and increasing species richness decreased resistance in one of our two study years. Resilience was positively related to species richness only under the highest management treatment. We conclude that low mowing frequency is more important for high resistance against drought than species richness. Nevertheless, species richness increased aboveground productivity in all management treatments both under drought and ambient conditions and should therefore be maintained under future climates. PMID:22615865

Enhancing drought resilience with conjunctive use and managed aquifer recharge in California and Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Reedy, Robert C.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Pool, Donald; Uhlman, Kristine

2016-03-01

Projected longer-term droughts and intense floods underscore the need to store more water to manage climate extremes. Here we show how depleted aquifers have been used to store water by substituting surface water use for groundwater pumpage (conjunctive use, CU) or recharging groundwater with surface water (managed aquifer recharge, MAR). Unique multi-decadal monitoring from thousands of wells and regional modeling datasets for the California Central Valley and central Arizona were used to assess CU and MAR. In addition to natural reservoir capacity related to deep water tables, historical groundwater depletion further expanded aquifer storage by ˜44 km3 in the Central Valley and by ˜100 km3 in Arizona, similar to or exceeding current surface reservoir capacity by up to three times. Local river water and imported surface water, transported through 100s of km of canals, is substituted for groundwater (≤15 km3 yr-1, CU) or is used to recharge groundwater (MAR, ≤1.5 km3 yr-1) during wet years shifting to mostly groundwater pumpage during droughts. In the Central Valley, CU and MAR locally reversed historically declining water-level trends, which contrasts with simulated net regional groundwater depletion. In Arizona, CU and MAR also reversed historically declining groundwater level trends in active management areas. These rising trends contrast with current declining trends in irrigated areas that lack access to surface water to support CU or MAR. Use of depleted aquifers as reservoirs could expand with winter flood irrigation or capturing flood discharges to the Pacific (0-1.6 km3 yr-1, 2000-2014) with additional infrastructure in California. Because flexibility and expanded portfolio options translate to resilience, CU and MAR enhance drought resilience through multi-year storage, complementing shorter term surface reservoir storage, and facilitating water markets.

Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

2013-05-01

The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a contingent of about 50% of rural homeless during this event. On the ther side, during the extreme droughts, crops and cattle are likely to perish due to drought. The prolonged dry season threatens local ichthyofauna, promoting an increase in fish mortality. In 1997/98 and 2005 episodes were recorded about 3 months of negative anomalies of discharge, while in 2010, there were about 4 months of negative anomalies during the low water period. According to the data obtained from the Civil Defense, flood events would be more impactful to the local community than the drought ones. However, the absence of quantitative indicators hinders a more precise analysis of the real impacts of drought and flood events in the region. In fact, during the dry season two aspects of extreme importance need to be better addressed: i) the fact that the population of one of the wettest regions of the planet does not have a good water supply for human being, and ii) what are the impacts of extreme drought on the cycle of reproduction of species of local fish fauna?

The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we present a methodology for analyzing the economic benefits in the U.S. of changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We construct reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation i...

Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United States from climate change

EPA Science Inventory

The effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts across the contiguous United States over the next century is assessed by applying Standardized Precipitation Indices and the Palmer Drought Severity Index to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Cl...

Multi-index evaluation of future drought and climate extreme occurrence in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM ...

Towards Improved Understanding of Drought and Drought Impacts from Long Term Earth Observation Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.

2017-12-01

Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathbout, Shifa; Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.; Martin-Vide, Javier; Bech, Joan; Rodrigo, Fernando S.

2018-02-01

This paper analyses the observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought phenomenon in Syria using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Temporal variability of drought is calculated for various time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months) for 20 weather stations over the 1961-2012 period. The spatial patterns of drought were identified by applying a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the SPI and SPEI values at different time scales. The results revealed three heterogeneous and spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts: 1) Northeastern (inland desert); 2) Southern (mountainous landscape); 3) Northwestern (Mediterranean coast). The evolutionary characteristics of drought during 1961-2012 were analysed including spatial and temporal variability of SPI and SPEI, the frequency distribution, and the drought duration. The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test applied to the SPI and SPEI series indicate prevailing significant negative trends (drought) at all stations. Both drought indices have been correlated both on spatial and temporal scales and they are highly comparable, especially, over a 12 and 24 month accumulation period. We concluded that the temporal and spatial characteristics of the SPI and SPEI can be used for developing a drought intensity - areal extent - and frequency curve that assesses the variability of regional droughts in Syria. The analysis of both indices suggests that all three regions had a severe drought in the 1990s, which had never been observed before in the country. Furthermore, the 2007-2010 drought was the driest period in the instrumental record, happening just before the onset of the recent conflict in Syria.

Ecosystem Effects of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

EPA Science Inventory

Multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean and its importance to the Earth’s climate system has been the subject of study in the physical oceanography field for decades. Only recently, however, has the importance of this variability, termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillati...

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Williams, P.; Mankin, J. S.; Seager, R.; Smerdon, J. E.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

Coastal droughts simultaneously affecting California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire, agriculture). To better understand these events, we use historical observations to investigate: (1) drought variability along the Pacific Coast of the Contiguous United States and (2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October-March) precipitation variability along the Pacific Coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounts for >40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode ( 20% of precipitation variability) characterized by anti-phased moisture anomalies across 40N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895-2016 (clustering in the 1920s-1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts, but not north of this boundary where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful predictions of these events at the seasonal scale. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks.

Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events in Southwest China and their relationships to teleconnection indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P., III; Wu, C.; Hao, Y.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

In the process of global warming, the frequency and intensity of a series of climate events (such as, precipitation, flood disaster, climate arid) are also being changed. Even in the today of advanced science and technology, the occurrence and severity of drought in China is still devastating impact on social and economic development. We studied the spatial and temporal variability of drought in southwestern China China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. We used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in southwestern China between 1961 and 2012 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. Additionally, We analyzed the relationships between the time variability of significant patterns and teleconnection indices. The PDSI shows that there is a trend of turning dry in west Tibet; while it is remarkably drying in junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing provinces, and the drought in Spring is more severe than in autumn, with a changing oscillation period of 2-7a. It's found the drought strength reducing before rising without a obvious turning point. Also, the drought frequency staggered in spatial distribution, and a larger inter-annual difference. AO and SS are the most important factors among all the drought influence factors, the others differ from the importance.

The Oceanic Contribution to Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, R. C.; Armour, K.; Battisti, D. S.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) is typically associated with variability in ocean heat transport (OHT) by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, recent work has cast doubt on this connection by showing that slab-ocean climate models, in which OHT cannot vary, exhibit similar variability. Here, we apply low-frequency component analysis to isolate the variability of Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that occurs on decadal and longer time scales. In observations and in pre-industrial control simulations of comprehensive climate models, we find that AMV is confined to the extratropics, with the strongest temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We show that warm subpolar temperatures are associated with a strengthened AMOC, increased poleward OHT, and local heat fluxes from the ocean into the atmosphere. In contrast, the traditional index of AMV based on the basin-averaged SST anomaly shows warm temperatures preceded by heat fluxes from the atmosphere into the ocean, consistent with the atmosphere driving this variability, and shows a weak relationship with AMOC. The autocorrelation time of the basin-averaged SST index is 1 year compared to an autocorrelation time of 5 years for the variability of subpolar temperatures. This shows that multi-decadal variability of Atlantic SSTs is sustained by OHT variability associated with AMOC, while atmosphere-driven SST variability, such as exists in slab-ocean models, contributes primarily on interannual time scales.

Spatio-temporal seasonal drought patterns in Europe from 1950 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-04-01

Drought is one of the natural disasters with severe impacts in Europe, not only in areas which frequently experience water scarcity such as the Mediterranean, but also in temperate or continental climates such as Central and Eastern Europe and even in cold regions such as Scandinavia and Iceland. In this study the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal meteorological droughts in Europe between 1950 and 2015 are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Since the focus is on the analysis of seasonal drought trends, indicators were calculated for 3 monthly accumulation periods. The input variables of precipitation and temperature were derived from E-OBS grids (v11-v12) at a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. Seasonal trends of drought frequency and severity were analyzed for moderate (SPI or SPEI <-1.0) and extreme (SPI or SPEI <-2.0) events during the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. For the moderate events, results of the SPI analysis (precipitation driven) demonstrate a significant tendency towards less frequent and severe droughts in Northern Europe and Russia, especially in winter and spring; oppositely, an increasing trend is visible in Southern Europe, mainly in spring and summer. According to the SPEI analysis (precipitation and temperature driven) Northern Europe shows wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn for drought frequency and in every season for drought severity. The evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant from 1981 onwards, both in terms of frequency and severity. This is especially true for Central Europe in spring, for the Mediterranean in summer, and for Eastern Europe in autumn. Extreme events follow similar patterns, but in autumn no spatially coherent trend can be found.

Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

2017-12-01

This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

2015-04-01

The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a noticeable increase in the latter decades. The exceptions are agricultural droughts for annual crops, which appear to benefit from a milder and rainier winter; and domestic water supplies, which are not threatened in any scenario as long as they are prioritized over other water uses.

Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon

2017-10-09

Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing drought adaptation, mitigation, and resilience mechanisms in Bangladesh.

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

Treesearch

Alessandra Bottero; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Mike A. Battaglia; Lance A. Asherin; Harald Bugmann

2017-01-01

Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary...

Spatial Variations in Drought Persistence in the South-Central U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leasor, Z. T.; Quiring, S. M.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most prominent climatic hazards in the south-central United States. This study examines spatial variations in meteorological drought persistence using high-resolution PRISM gridded precipitation data from 1900-2015. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to represent meteorological drought conditions. The study region covers Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Droughts are first divided into different severity categories using the classification employed by the U.S. National Drought Monitor. The frequency and duration of each drought event is determined and this is used to calculate drought persistence. Our results indicate that drought persistence in the south-central U.S. varies as a function of drought severity. In addition, drought persistence also varies substantially over space and time. The probability of drought termination is a function of drought severity, geographic location and time of the year. In addition, there is evidence that drought persistence is influenced by global teleconnections and land-atmosphere interactions. The results of this drought persistence climatology can benefit seasonal forecasting and the current understanding of drought recovery.

Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.

2017-01-01

In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950-2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.

High-resolution lake sediment archives of midcontinental atmospheric and hydroclimate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, B. W.; Wilson, J. J.; Gilhooly, W., III; Steinman, B. A.; Stamps, L. G.; Ahmed, M. N.; Abbott, M. B.; Pompeani, D. P.; Hillman, A. L.; Finkenbinder, M. S.

2017-12-01

Hydroclimate variability in the midcontinental United States (US) during the last 2000 years is not well characterized because there are few high-resolution paleoclimate records from the region. The majority of information about late Holocene midcontinental hydroclimate variability comes from scattered lake and bog sediment archives (primarily north of 42˚N) and gridded Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data calculated from a network of tree-ring records. The density of tree-ring records is lowest in the midcontinent, however, and decreases precipitously with time. In order to address this midcontinental paleoclimate data gap, we are developing a series of new lake-sediment-based hydroclimate records spanning 85˚ to 98˚W and 38˚ to 45˚N. New results from the eastern and central portions of the study area indicate large hydroclimate changes during the last 2000 years. Specifically, the Ohio and central Mississippi River valleys were wetter during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950-1250 CE), but drier during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1350-1850 CE) with an especially severe, multi-decadal drought between 1350-1450 CE. Comparison with western (west of 96˚W) drought and fire records supports the existence of a hydroclimate dipole, with opposite hydroclimate conditions west and east of 96˚W. Isotopic changes in precipitation during the MCA and LIA suggest hydroclimate anomalies during these events were associated with mean state atmospheric circulation changes that resemble modern Pacific North American Mode (PNA) variability. Midcontinental Native American populations appear to have responded to MCA and LIA hydroclimate variability, with the latter event contributing to midcontinental depopulation between 1350-1500 CE.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in surface and deep ocean temperature and salinity fields from unperturbed climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanchettin, D.; Jungclaus, J. H.

2013-12-01

Large multidecadal fluctuations in basin-average sea-surface temperature (SST) are a known feature of observed, reconstructed and simulated variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. This phenomenon is often referred to as Multidecadal Atlantic Variability or AMV. Historical AMV fluctuations are associated with analog basin-scale changes in sea-surface salinity, so that warming corresponds to salinification and cooling to freshening [Polyakov et al., 2005]. The surface imprint of the AMV further corresponds to same-sign fluctuations in the shallow ocean and with opposite-sign fluctuations in the deep ocean for both temperature and salinity [Polyakov et al., 2005]. This out-of-phase behavior reflects the thermohaline overturning circulation shaping North Atlantic's low-frequency variability. Several processes contribute to the AMV, involving both ocean-atmosphere coupled processes and deep ocean circulation [e.g., Grossmann and Klotzbach, 2009]. In particular, recirculation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region of salinity anomalies from Arctic freshwater export may trigger multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and therefore may be part of the AMV [Jungclaus et al., 2005; Dima and Lohmann, 2007]. With this contribution, we aim to improve the physical interpretation of the AMV by investigating spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and salinity fields in the shallow and deep ocean. We focus on two unperturbed millennial-scale simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model in its paleo (MPI-ESM-P) and low-resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) configurations, which provide reference control climates for assessments of pre-industrial and historical climate simulations. The two model configurations only differ for the presence, in MPI-ESM-LR, of an active module for dynamical vegetation. We use spatial-average indices and empirical orthogonal functions/principal components to track the horizontal and vertical propagation of temperature and salinity anomalies related to the AMV. In particular, we discuss the potential predictability of multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic SSTs based on indices derived from the sea-surface salinity field. We show how the two simulations provide AMV realizations with some distinguishable characteristics, e.g., the typical fluctuations' frequencies and the linkage with the North Atlantic meridional overturning and gyre circulations. We further show how information gained by investigating different definitions of the AMV [Zanchettin et al., 2013] helps designing numerical sensitivity studies for understanding the mechanism(s) behind this phenomenon, concerning both its origin and global impacts. References Dima, M., and G. Lohmann [2007], J. Clim., 20, 2706-2719, doi:10.1175/JCLI4174.1 Jungclaus, J.H., et al. [2005], J. Clim., 18, 4013- 4031, doi:10.1175/JCLI3462.1 Polyakov, I. V., et al. [2005], J. Clim., 18:4562-4581 Grossmann, I., and P. J. Klotzbach [2009], J. Geophys. Res., 114, D24107, doi:10.1029/2009JD012728 Zanchettin D., et al. [2013], Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0

Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

Effects of meteorological droughts on agricultural water resources in southern China

Treesearch

Houquan Lu; Yihua Wu; Yijun Li; Yongqiang Liu

2017-01-01

With the global warming, frequencies of drought are rising in the humid area of southern China. In this study, the effects of meteorological drought on the agricultural water resource based on the agricultural water resource carrying capacity (AWRCC) in southern China were investigated. The entire study area was divided into three regions based on the...

Ecohydrological consequences of drought- and infestation-triggered tree die-off: Insights and hypotheses

Treesearch

Henry D. Adams; Charles H. Luce; David D. Breshears; Craig D. Allen; Markus Weiler; V. Cody Hale; Alistair M. S. Smith; Travis E. Huxman

2012-01-01

Widespread, rapid, drought-, and infestation-triggered tree mortality is emerging as a phenomenon affecting forests globally and may be linked to increasing temperatures and drought frequency and severity. The ecohydrological consequences of forest die-off have been little studied and remain highly uncertain. To explore this knowledge gap, we apply the extensive...

Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index.

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Huang, Kaicheng; Gao, Shan; Wu, Hao; Luo, Hui

2015-07-08

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months). When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation's responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April-October). The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.

The climatic assessment of droughts in the Republic of Moldova between 1891 and 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potop, Vera

2009-04-01

This study describes the drought episodes in the Republic of Moldova from 18 weather stations and from Chisinau Observatory, with monthly rainfalls measurements obtained during periods of 62 and 116 years, respectively. The catalogue of the droughts for spring, summer and autumn have been identified and elaborated. As a result of the analysis of drought catalogue for a period of over 100 years, an increase in the tendencies of frequency and intensities of the studied phenomena after the 1980s was observed. The longest drought periods were noticed at the beginning of the 1950s and 1960s reaching their highest points in the decades of 1981-1990 and 1991-2001 with the lowest points in the 1970s. Similarly, during the last 20 years, in 12 cases (1986, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007) of drought, 9 have been registered as being of a severe intensity degree and/or the extreme intensity degree. In 1990, 1992, 2003 and 2007 drought season occurred during the entire summer season. If it compare data for the whole period of more than a century, it will see that droughts have occurred once every 3 years, and after the 1980s their frequency has already increased to once every 2 years. Besides, the estimate of the territories affected by drought was made for every season for the first time, as well as for the whole vegetation period of each drought year. Surfer software (by Golden Software Inc.) as tools for estimating spatial lows of distribution drought event in the territory of Moldova it was used. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Research Project MSM-6046070901.

Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F.

2012-12-01

Over the past decades, human water consumption has more than doubled, and reduced streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological droughts, i.e. the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow. Here, we quantify over the period 1960-2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological droughts worldwide. We simulated streamflow by the global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB at a 0.5 degree spatial resolution, and reduced the amount of streamflow with different levels of human water consumption over the period 1960-2010. We applied the commonly used variable threshold level method to identify below-normal water availability as the onset of hydrological droughts. We then standardized the deficit volume dividing relative to the threshold level to express the intensity of drought conditions to normal streamflow conditions. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow in many regions of the world. This subsequently intensified hydrological droughts regionally by 10-500%. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over western and central U.S., southern Europe, Asia, and southeastern Australia, whereas the impact of industrial and households' consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over eastern U.S., and western and central Europe. The results also show that drought frequency increased by more than 27% compared to pristine or natural condition as a result of human water consumption. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia, but also substantial over North America and Europe. Importantly, global population under severe hydrological droughts considerably increased from 0.7 billion in 1960 to 2.2 billion in 2010 due to rapid population growth. As a limited validation exercise, we compared simulated deficit volumes to those derived from observed river discharges for some important basins of the world. The comparison shows generally good agreement, but large discrepancies occurred when simulated river discharge failed to reproduce well the peak discharge and the mean amplitude in seasonal discharges, regardless of high correlation obtained from comparison of monthly discharges.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Record of the North American southwest monsoon from Gulf of Mexico sediment cores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Pavich, M.J.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.

2005-01-01

Summer monsoonal rains (the southwest monsoon) are an important source of moisture for parts of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Improved documentation of the variability in the southwest monsoon is needed because changes in the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation in this semiarid region of North America influence overall water supply and fire severity. Comparison of abundance variations in the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer in marine cores from the western and northern Gulf of Mexico with terrestrial proxy records of precipitation (tree-ring width and packrat-midden occurrences) from the southwestern United States indicate that G. sacculifer abundance is a proxy for the southwest monsoon on millennial and submillennial time scales. The marine record confirms the presence of a severe multicentury drought centered ca. 1600 calendar (cal.) yr B.P. as well as several multidecadal droughts that have been identified in a long tree-ring record spanning the past 2000 cal. yr from westcentral New Mexico. The marine record further suggests that monsoon circulation, and thus summer rainfall, was enhanced in the middle Holocene (ca. 6500-4500 14C yr B.P.; ca. 6980-4710 cal. yr B.P.). The marine proxy provides the potential for constructing a highly resolved, well-dated, and continuous history of the southwest monsoon for the entire Holocene. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in northeast Australia.

PubMed

Lobell, David B; Hammer, Graeme L; Chenu, Karine; Zheng, Bangyou; McLean, Greg; Chapman, Scott C

2015-11-01

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here, we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation-use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than that for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistic versus stochastic characterization of persistent droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Perez, J.; Valdes, J. B.

2005-12-01

Droughts are one of more devastating natural disasters. A drought event is always related with deficiency in precipitation over a time period. As longer are the drought periods, larger are the damages associated with, following a potential relationship. Additionally, the extension covered by an event also increases its impact, because it makes difficult to compensate the deficit from neighbourhood water resources. Therefore, the characterization of a drought by its persistent deficit, and the area over which it extends are main points to be carried on. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) provides a statistical characterization of the deficits. Its computation, for different aggregation time scales, allows a persistence evaluation. Another more recent statistic that may be applied in drought characterization is the extreme persistent probability function (e.p.f.), which characterizes the persistence of extreme realizations in a random sequence. This work presents an analysis of the differences in performance of the SPI and the e.p.f. in the statistical characterization of a drought event. The inclusion of the persistency directly in the statistic gives to the e.p.f. an advantage over the SPI. Furthermore, the relationship between the e.p.f. and its mean frequency of recurrence is known. Thus, the e.p.f. may be applied to provide either statistic or stochastic characterization of a drought event. Both criteria were compared, showing that the stochastic characterization produces a better drought indicator. The stochastic characterization using the e.p.f. as a criterion yields the new Drought Frequency Index (DFI). The index is applicable to any random water related variable to identify drought events. Its main advantages over the SPI are the direct inclusion of persistence, and its larger robustness to the time scale. To incorporate the spatial extension in the characterization of a drought event, the new DFI may also be evaluated to characterize the drought spatial-temporal development using DFI-maps. Case studies in Spain and the USA support the advantages of the e.p.f.

Investigating Drought Onset, Termination and Recovery According to Water Quality Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2016-12-01

Frequency and severity of droughts are increasing globally. Reduced catchment runoff and river flows caused by the meteorological drivers leads to hydrological drought. Hydrological droughts have significant impacts not only on water quantity but also on water quality. In this study, first the onset of historical hydrological droughts is estimated using daily threshold-based indicators. Then drought termination and recovery period in terms of water quantity is analyzed. This is followed by examination of water quality during these detected hydrological droughts. Four water quality parameters, i.e., water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and turbidity are investigated over Willamette river basin located in northwestern Oregon in the United States. Drought vulnerability and resiliency are analyzed for the study period. Droughts and the recovery period are found to have significant impact on water quality parameters. Also, the results indicate a deterioration of water quality during droughts and longer drought recovery if water quality indicators are considered in the analysis.

Drought in an invaded Hawaiian lowland wet forest

Treesearch

Jené Michaud; Susan Cordell; T. Colleen Cole; Rebecca Ostertag

2015-01-01

In this study we examined historic drought frequency and hydrologic effects of removing invasive plants from one of the few remaining Hawaiian wet lowland forests, near Hilo, Hawai‘i. We developed a conceptual and statistical model of Hilo droughts using historic rainfall and pan evaporation data and discovered that episodes of low soil moisture were most likely from...

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

Treesearch

Adam P. Coble; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Z. Carter Berry; Katie A. Jennings; Cameron D. McIntire; John L. Campbell; Lindsey E. Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; Heidi Asbjornsen

2017-01-01

In the Northeastern U.S., drought is expected to increase in frequency over the next century, and therefore, the responses of trees to drought are important to understand. There is recent debate about whether land-use change or moisture availability is the primary driver of changes in forest species composition in this region. Some argue that fire suppression from the...

Observed and anticipated impacts of drought on forest insects and diseases in the United States

Treesearch

Thomas E. Kolb; Chris Fettig; Matthew P. Ayres; Barbara J. Bentz; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Robert Mathiasen; Jane E. Stewart; Aaron S. Weed

2016-01-01

Future anthropogenic-induced changes to the earth’s climate will likely include increases in temperature and changes in precipitation that will increase the frequency and severity of droughts. Insects and fungal diseases are important disturbances in forests, yet understanding of the role of drought in outbreaks of these agents is limited. Current knowledge...

Drought, flood and rainfall analysis under climate change in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapoglou, Evdokia; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini; Tsanis, Ioannis; Nerantzaki, Sofia; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

In this study an analysis on the drought frequency and magnitude under climate change in Crete, Greece is performed. The analysis was performed for the time period from 1983-2100, divided into three sub-periods (1983-1999, 2000-2049 and 2050-2099) for inter-comparison. Two climate models were studied MPI-ESM-LR-r1-CSC-REMO and EC-EARTH-r12-SMHI-RCA4, following three possible representative concentration pathways (+2.6, +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2). In order to perform the analysis the results of a SWAT simulation which covered the entity of Crete using 352 subbasins, was used. Drought events are recognized by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify the meteorological drought events and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for hydrological droughts. SPI and SRI drought indices, were used in order to identify the number of drought events for each climate model and scenario. In all cases, an increase in both severity and number of drought events was calculated for the future periods, compared to the baseline period 1983-1999. This increase was smaller for the +2.6 W/m2 scenario and largest for the +8.5 W/m2. The magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated for the subbasins of Crete and the most vulnerable were identified, both in terms of severity and the change throughout the years in index magnitude. Next a flood frequency analysis was performed for the entity of Crete Island in order to calculate the magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period. In order to perform the flood frequency analysis, the results of the SWAT simulation in terms of runoff in each subbasin are used. By calculating the magnitude of flood events with 10 and 100 years return period and the change in the magnitude throughout the time periods the most vulnerable subbasins are identified. The same frequency analysis was performed for the precipitation at each subbasin, and the magnitude of extreme precipitation events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated. In this case the most significant changes appeared in Chania prefecture, having a 25-50% increase in extreme precipitation magnitude for the 10 years and the 100 years return period until the end of the third study period. Drought and flood frequency analysis can be proved a valuable tool in water management and infrastructure projects planning providing an integrated analysis for extreme event magnitude anticipation in Crete. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

A Decadal-scale Air-sea Interaction Theory for North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: the NAT-NAO-AMOC-AMO Coupled Mode and Its Remote Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-04-01

ABSTRACT North Atlantic region shows prominent multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) leads the oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years and the latter also leads the former by around 15 years. The mechanisms are investigated using simulations from a fully coupled model, and a NATNAO-AMOC-AMO Coupled Mode is proposed to explain the multidecadal variability in North Atlantic region. The NAT-NAO-AMO-AMOC coupled mode has important remote influences on regional climates. Observational analysis identifies a significant in-phase relationship between the AMV and Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation. The physical mechanism for this relationship is investigated using both observations and numerical simulations. North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated with the positive AMV phase can excite an eastward propagating wave train response across the entire Eurasian continent, which includes an east-west dipole structure over Siberia. The dipole then leads to anomalous southerly winds bringing moisture northward to Siberia; the precipitation increases correspondingly. Furthermore, a prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data, and this teleconnection pattern is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). A strong inphase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability.

Risk assessment of drought disaster in typical area of corn cultivation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Chunyi

2017-05-01

This study assesses the risk of corn drought disaster in China under current climate conditions and builds a predictable relationship between drought disaster risk and yield losses. Two regions, Jilin and Henan, have been selected to represent two typical areas of corn cultivation. Risk is assessed from the aspects of hazard and vulnerability. Hazard presented as drought frequency and intensity. The sensitivity of corn to droughts that happened in different corn-growing stages and regional irrigation ability are used to reflect vulnerability. The results show that drought hazard and sensitivity in Jilin are much more serious than Henan, and irrigation ability is better in Henan. As a result, the drought disaster risk in Jilin is high; corn faces severe drought stress. The average corn yield loss rates during 1978-2010 in Jilin and Henan were 9.94 and 6.91 %, respectively. The correlation between corn yield losses and drought disaster risk is significant ( r = 0.711). The results can help to guide future agriculture planning and drought adaptation polices.

Imprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Tree-Ring Widths in Northeastern Asia since 1568

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaochun; Brown, Peter M.; Zhang, Yanni; Song, Laiping

2011-01-01

We present a new tree-ring reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) spanning 1568–2007 CE from northeast Asia. Comparison of the instrumental AMO index, an existing tree-ring based AMO reconstruction, and this new record show strongly similar annual to multidecadal patterns of variation over the last 440 years. Warm phases of the AMO are related to increases in growth of Scots pine trees and moisture availability in northeast China and central eastern Siberia. Multi-tape method (MTM) and cross-wavelet analyses indicate that robust multidecadal (∼64–128 years) variability is present throughout the new proxy record. Our results have important implications concerning the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on East Asian climate, and provide support for the possibility of an AMO signature on global multidecadal climate variability. PMID:21818380

Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

PubMed Central

Li, Zheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Huang, Kaicheng; Gao, Shan; Wu, Hao; Luo, Hui

2015-01-01

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months). When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October). The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages. PMID:26184243

Groundwater level response to low-frequency (interannual to multidecadal) climate variability: an overview across Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, M. L.

2017-12-01

The impact of climate variability on groundwater systems is central to the successful management and sustainability of water resources. In Portugal, strong changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, with a concentration of rainfall during the winter season and an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts, in conjunction with warming, are expected to have a profound impact on water resources. Nonetheless, there is still limited knowledge on the impact of climate variability on aquifer systems across the country. The primary goal of this study is to provide a national-scale assessment of the relative contribution of climate to the temporal and spatial variance of groundwater recharge across the four main hydrogeological units in which the country is divided. Monthly hydrological data sets spanning a common 30 year period include groundwater levels from the Portuguese National System for Water Research Information and precipitation data from both meteorological stations and ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis. The links between large-scale climatic patterns, precipitation, and groundwater levels are explored using singular spectral analysis, wavelet coherence and lag correlation methods. Hydrologic time-series sampling diverse geographic regions and aquifer types have common non-stationary oscillatory components, which can be associated with the leading modes of atmospheric circulation in the western north Atlantic, namely the North Atlantic (NAO) and the Eastern Atlantic (EA) oscillations. Maps of the spatial distribution of the relative contribution of each mode of variability to the total variance of the groundwater levels illustrate which atmospheric mode impacts the most a particular aquifer. The results display the links between groundwater recharge and climate teleconnections but also emphasize the distinctive types of modulation of the climate signals among the several hydrogeological units and aquifer systems under consideration. This work is supported by FCT- project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - IDL.

A multispecies tree ring reconstruction of Potomac River streamflow (950-2001)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. Stockton; Hessl, Amy E.; Cook, Edward R.; Pederson, Neil

2011-05-01

Mean May-September Potomac River streamflow was reconstructed from 950-2001 using a network of tree ring chronologies (n = 27) representing multiple species. We chose a nested principal components reconstruction method to maximize use of available chronologies backward in time. Explained variance during the period of calibration ranged from 20% to 53% depending on the number and species of chronologies available in each 25 year time step. The model was verified by two goodness of fit tests, the coefficient of efficiency (CE) and the reduction of error statistic (RE). The RE and CE never fell below zero, suggesting the model had explanatory power over the entire period of reconstruction. Beta weights indicated a loss of explained variance during the 1550-1700 period that we hypothesize was caused by the reduction in total number of predictor chronologies and loss of important predictor species. Thus, the reconstruction is strongest from 1700-2001. Frequency, intensity, and duration of drought and pluvial events were examined to aid water resource managers. We found that the instrumental period did not represent adequately the full range of annual to multidecadal variability present in the reconstruction. Our reconstruction of mean May-September Potomac River streamflow was a significant improvement over the Cook and Jacoby (1983) reconstruction because it expanded the seasonal window, lengthened the record by 780 years, and better replicated the mean and variance of the instrumental record. By capitalizing on variable phenologies and tree growth responses to climate, multispecies reconstructions may provide significantly more information about past hydroclimate, especially in regions with low aridity and high tree species diversity.

Long-term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change.

PubMed

Pau, Stephanie; Okamoto, Daniel K; Calderón, Osvaldo; Wright, S Joseph

2018-05-01

Mounting evidence suggests that anthropogenic global change is altering plant species composition in tropical forests. Fewer studies, however, have focused on long-term trends in reproductive activity, in part because of the lack of data from tropical sites. Here, we analyze a 28-year record of tropical flower phenology in response to anthropogenic climate and atmospheric change. We show that a multidecadal increase in flower activity is most strongly associated with rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations using yearly aggregated data. Compared to significant climatic factors, CO 2 had on average an approximately three-, four-, or fivefold stronger effect than rainfall, solar radiation, and the Multivariate ENSO Index, respectively. Peaks in flower activity were associated with greater solar radiation and lower rainfall during El Niño years. The effect of atmospheric CO 2 on flowering has diminished over the most recent decade for lianas and canopy trees, whereas flowering of midstory trees and shrub species continued to increase with rising CO 2 . Increases in flowering were accompanied by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy and midstory trees. Understory treelets did not show increases in flowering but did show increases in duration. Given that atmospheric CO 2 will likely continue to climb over the next century, a long-term increase in flowering activity may persist in some growth forms until checked by nutrient limitation or by climate change through rising temperatures, increasing drought frequency and/or increasing cloudiness and reduced insolation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.