Vulnerability on the Roof of the World: Resilience to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, J. A.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Hu, J.; Nyima, Y.; Boone, R.; Galvin, K.; Kang, S.; Ojima, D. S.

2010-12-01

Pastoralists on the Tibetan Plateau are a marginalized people living in an extreme environment and may be especially vulnerable as the system approaches critical thresholds. In Tibet, temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average while the frequency and severity of severe snowstorms is predicted to increase. Pastoralists are also experiencing reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that include a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events within the context of changing natural resource policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika). We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region (4,870 m) and are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, carbon fluxes and stable isotopes. We are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it is likely to cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted climate and land use changes. Semi-structured interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climatic and ecological change and vulnerability to snow disasters. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling an ecosystem model to an agent-based pastoral household model. Our results from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant species and primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Snow additions can partially mediate this effect. Herders throughout this region share common knowledge about both climatic and ecological changes, but appear to be more closely attuned to ecological shifts than to gradual climate changes. Herder perceptions about climate trends often contradict local weather station data, but herders tend to be in strong agreement that grassland health has declined. These results suggest that rangeland degradation has occurred, and that climate warming may be one driver responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. Our findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should address the effects of both warming and extreme weather events and should also encourage land use policies that will maintain these systems under change. The vulnerability of ecosystems on the roof of the world has implications for the 1x109 people living downstream and for feedbacks to the Earth’s climate system.

Security enhanced multi-factor biometric authentication scheme using bio-hash function.

PubMed

Choi, Younsung; Lee, Youngsook; Moon, Jongho; Won, Dongho

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of personal information and wireless communication technology, user authentication schemes have been crucial to ensure that wireless communications are secure. As such, various authentication schemes with multi-factor authentication have been proposed to improve the security of electronic communications. Multi-factor authentication involves the use of passwords, smart cards, and various biometrics to provide users with the utmost privacy and data protection. Cao and Ge analyzed various authentication schemes and found that Younghwa An's scheme was susceptible to a replay attack where an adversary masquerades as a legal server and a user masquerading attack where user anonymity is not provided, allowing an adversary to execute a password change process by intercepting the user's ID during login. Cao and Ge improved upon Younghwa An's scheme, but various security problems remained. This study demonstrates that Cao and Ge's scheme is susceptible to a biometric recognition error, slow wrong password detection, off-line password attack, user impersonation attack, ID guessing attack, a DoS attack, and that their scheme cannot provide session key agreement. Then, to address all weaknesses identified in Cao and Ge's scheme, this study proposes a security enhanced multi-factor biometric authentication scheme and provides a security analysis and formal analysis using Burrows-Abadi-Needham logic. Finally, the efficiency analysis reveals that the proposed scheme can protect against several possible types of attacks with only a slightly high computational cost.

Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.

2012-12-01

Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this area is the ability to utilize data of uneven quality and standards. Novel approaches to meta-analysis provide other options for taking advantage of diverse case studies. Techniques for summarizing responses across impacts, drivers, and scales can play a huge role in increasing the value of information from case studies. In some cases, expert elicitation may provide alternatives for identifying mechanisms or for interpreting multi-factor drivers or responses. Especially when designed to focus on a well-defined set of observations, a sophisticated elicitation can establish formal confidence limits on responses that are otherwise difficult to constrain. A final possible approach involves a focus on the mechanisms contributing to an impact, rather than the impact itself. Approaches based on quantified mechanisms are especially appealing in the context of models where the number of interactions makes it difficult to intuitively understand the chain of connections from cause to effect, when actors differ in goals or sensitivities, or when scale affects parts of the system differently. With all of these approaches, useful evidence may not conform to traditional levels of statistical confidence. Some of the biggest challenges in taking advantage of the potential tools will involve defining what constitutes a meaningful evaluation.

Climate-Change Impacts on Major Societal and Environmental Sectors: a National View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.

2009-05-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Unified Synthesis Product reports on extant and possible future impacts of climate change for seven sectors at the national level - water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The sectoral analyses provide an integrated national picture of the climate-change consequences, now and in the future, for society and the environment, albeit a picture with regional texture. Major report findings for each sector will be presented. In addition to the specific sectoral findings, several overarching messages emerge from this component of the synthesis activity. First, it is important to think about interactions between and among sectors with regard to climate impacts. For example, the projected changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, and hence water supply, will very likely have significant implications for other sectors considered in the report. Changes in water supply have the potential to affect hydropower generation, river transportation, crop timing and management, in-stream ecosystem services including fish habitat, and human health issues related to links between heavy rains ad water-borne diseases. Second, the report concludes that climate-change impacts on the sectors must be considered in the context of a range of environmental and social factors including pollution, population growth, over use of resources, and urbanization. The multi-factor analysis provides insight into our understanding of where, when and how climate change combines with other environmental and social changes to affect the sectors. It also provides some understanding of how these interactions can either amplify or dampen climate-change impacts. This message has profound implications for the design of research programs and information systems at the national, regional and local levels. Furthermore, it demands that a true partnership be forged between the natural and social sciences to more adequately conduct assessments and seek solutions that address the complex challenges that multiple stresses pose. Third, the report notes that the United States is connected to a world that is unevenly vulnerable to climate change and thus will be affected by impacts globally. One example is agriculture. The degree to which climate change affects food production across the globe will affect the demand for our agricultural products and so the profitability of this sector. Fourth, the report highlights the importance of considering the unintended consequences of adaptation measures designed to avert or minimize negative impacts of climate change on various sectors. For example, the "hardening" of coastlines with sea walls and other structures to protect transportation infrastructure against storm surge and sea-level rise eliminates the ability of coastal ecosystems to adapt to these aspects of climate change by inward migration. While this "tradeoff" may be essential, it must be understood that with the loss of coastal ecosystems such as marshlands, comes the loss of the services they provide to society such as their function as nurseries for juvenile fish stocks that are essential for the sustainability of coastal fisheries. The general message about unintended consequences is that system-level analyses must be part of developing intelligent adaptation strategies to meet the challenges of climate change.

A Guide to the Multifactored Evaluation (MFE).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio Coalition for the Education of Children with Disabilities, Marion.

This guide provides Ohio parents of children with disabilities with information on multifactored evaluations. It begins by discussing the Intervention Assistance Team and what occurs at the assistance team meeting. It also explains that to begin the multifactored evaluation process, the parent must complete a "Request for Parent Consent for…

Using a Multi-Method Approach to Examine Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, J.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Nyima, Y.; Galvin, K.; Boone, R.; Dorje, T.; Ojima, D. S.

2012-12-01

Pastoralists and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau are facing a suite of novel stresses. Temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average. The frequency and severity of severe snowstorms, which lead to critical losses of livestock, are also increasing. Pastoralists are also experiencing changes to their livelihood activities, including reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that integrate results from a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events (snow disasters) within the context of changing natural resource management policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika) that are being affected by current policy. We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region. We are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, ecosystem carbon fluxes and stable isotope signatures of select plant species. Through this experiment, we are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it can cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted future climate and land use changes. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climate and ecological change and their drivers and are also conducting interviews on vulnerability to snow disasters across a three site, 300-500mm precipitation gradient. We are using remote sensing to identify biophysical landscape change over time. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling the Savanna ecosystem model to the DECUMA agent-based pastoral household model. Our results to date from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant plant species and the primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Moreover, several lines of evidence suggest that warming is causing delayed spring phenology, with important ecosystem and livelihood implications. Herders are observing climatic and ecological changes, knowledge which is important for adaptation, but people whose livelihoods are most directly derived from the rangelands, those situated at higher elevations, and those who are more mobile across the landscape are most attuned to these changes. These results suggest that rangeland degradation and delayed spring phenology are occurring, and that climate warming may be responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. Our findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should address the effects of both climate warming and the changing nature of extreme weather events and should also encourage land use policies that will maintain these systems under change. Moreover, policies that encourage mobility and rangeland-based livelihoods will enhance adaptation to climate change.

From Foetid Air to Filth:

PubMed Central

Brown, Michael

2008-01-01

Summary Eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century ideas about the occurrence and spread of epidemic disease were complex and contested. Although many thought that diseases such as plague, typhus, and cholera were contagious and were communicated from person to person or via the medium of goods, others believed that they were the product of atmospheric change. Moreover, as historians have emphasized, the early nineteenth century saw a move from a multifactoral, climatic etiology toward one that prioritized specific local corruption of the atmosphere caused by putrefying animal and vegetable matter. In this paper, I extend this analysis by linking to recent literature on dirt and disgust and exploring the importance of theologies. I examine the work of two key figures in the history of British epidemiology, Charles Maclean and Thomas Southwood Smith, and demonstrate how the latter's increasing emphasis upon the causal agency of filth was structured by his Unitarian faith and his belief in a universally benevolent God. PMID:18791295

Multi-factor authentication using quantum communication

DOEpatents

Hughes, Richard John; Peterson, Charles Glen; Thrasher, James T.; Nordholt, Jane E.; Yard, Jon T.; Newell, Raymond Thorson; Somma, Rolando D.

2018-02-06

Multi-factor authentication using quantum communication ("QC") includes stages for enrollment and identification. For example, a user enrolls for multi-factor authentication that uses QC with a trusted authority. The trusted authority transmits device factor information associated with a user device (such as a hash function) and user factor information associated with the user (such as an encrypted version of a user password). The user device receives and stores the device factor information and user factor information. For multi-factor authentication that uses QC, the user device retrieves its stored device factor information and user factor information, then transmits the user factor information to the trusted authority, which also retrieves its stored device factor information. The user device and trusted authority use the device factor information and user factor information (more specifically, information such as a user password that is the basis of the user factor information) in multi-factor authentication that uses QC.

Security enhanced multi-factor biometric authentication scheme using bio-hash function

PubMed Central

Lee, Youngsook; Moon, Jongho

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of personal information and wireless communication technology, user authentication schemes have been crucial to ensure that wireless communications are secure. As such, various authentication schemes with multi-factor authentication have been proposed to improve the security of electronic communications. Multi-factor authentication involves the use of passwords, smart cards, and various biometrics to provide users with the utmost privacy and data protection. Cao and Ge analyzed various authentication schemes and found that Younghwa An’s scheme was susceptible to a replay attack where an adversary masquerades as a legal server and a user masquerading attack where user anonymity is not provided, allowing an adversary to execute a password change process by intercepting the user’s ID during login. Cao and Ge improved upon Younghwa An’s scheme, but various security problems remained. This study demonstrates that Cao and Ge’s scheme is susceptible to a biometric recognition error, slow wrong password detection, off-line password attack, user impersonation attack, ID guessing attack, a DoS attack, and that their scheme cannot provide session key agreement. Then, to address all weaknesses identified in Cao and Ge’s scheme, this study proposes a security enhanced multi-factor biometric authentication scheme and provides a security analysis and formal analysis using Burrows-Abadi-Needham logic. Finally, the efficiency analysis reveals that the proposed scheme can protect against several possible types of attacks with only a slightly high computational cost. PMID:28459867

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B.; Walker, A.; Zaehle, S.; Pendall, E.; Norby, R. J.

2017-12-01

Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing models, yet to date, such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 models to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions: comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single-factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the nitrogen cycle models, nitrogen availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO2-induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive (CO2 × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.

Management of suicidal and self-harming behaviors in prisons: systematic literature review of evidence-based activities.

PubMed

Barker, Emma; Kõlves, Kairi; De Leo, Diego

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to systematically analyze existing literature testing the effectiveness of programs involving the management of suicidal and self-harming behaviors in prisons. For the study, 545 English-language articles published in peer reviewed journals were retrieved using the terms "suicid*," "prevent*," "prison," or "correctional facility" in SCOPUS, MEDLINE, PROQUEST, and Web of Knowledge. In total, 12 articles were relevant, with 6 involving multi-factored suicide prevention programs, and 2 involving peer focused programs. Others included changes to the referral and care of suicidal inmates, staff training, legislation changes, and a suicide prevention program for inmates with Borderline Personality Disorder. Multi-factored suicide prevention programs appear most effective in the prison environment. Using trained inmates to provide social support to suicidal inmates is promising. Staff attitudes toward training programs were generally positive.

Efficacy and safety of a multifactor intervention to improve therapeutic adherence in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): protocol for the ICEPOC study.

PubMed

Barnestein-Fonseca, Pilar; Leiva-Fernández, José; Vidal-España, Francisca; García-Ruiz, Antonio; Prados-Torres, Daniel; Leiva-Fernández, Francisca

2011-02-14

Low therapeutic adherence to medication is very common. Clinical effectiveness is related to dose rate and route of administration and so poor therapeutic adherence can reduce the clinical benefit of treatment. The therapeutic adherence of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is extremely poor according to most studies. The research about COPD adherence has mainly focussed on quantifying its effect, and few studies have researched factors that affect non-adherence. Our study will evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactor intervention to improve the therapeutic adherence of COPD patients. A randomized controlled clinical trial with 140 COPD diagnosed patients selected by a non-probabilistic method of sampling. Subjects will be randomly allocated into two groups, using the block randomization technique. Every patient in each group will be visited four times during the year of the study. Motivational aspects related to adherence (beliefs and behaviour): group and individual interviews; cognitive aspects: information about illness; skills: inhaled technique training. Reinforcement of the cognitive-emotional aspects and inhaled technique training will be carried out in all visits of the intervention group. Adherence to a prescribed treatment involves a behavioural change. Cognitive, emotional and motivational aspects influence this change and so we consider the best intervention procedure to improve adherence would be a cognitive and emotional strategy which could be applied in daily clinical practice. Our hypothesis is that the application of a multifactor intervention (COPD information, dose reminders and reinforcing audiovisual material, motivational aspects and inhalation technique training) to COPD patients taking inhaled treatment will give a 25% increase in the number of patients showing therapeutic adherence in this group compared to the control group.We will evaluate the effectiveness of this multifactor intervention on patient adherence to inhaled drugs considering that it will be right and feasible to the clinical practice context. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN18841601.

Soil Microbial Community Responses to Short-term Multiple Experimental Climate Change Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guanlin; Lee, Jongyeol; Lee, Sohye; Roh, Yujin; Son, Yowhan

2016-04-01

It is agreed that soil microbial communities are responsible for the cycling of carbon and nutrients in ecosystems; however, the response of these microbial communities to climate change has not been clearly understood. In this study, we measured the direct and interactive effects of climate change drivers on soil bacterial and fungal communities (abundance and composition) in an open-field multifactor climate change experiment. The experimental treatment system was established with two-year-old Pinus densiflora seedlings at Korea University in April 2013, and consisted of six different treatments with three replicates: two levels of air temperature warming (control and +3° C) were crossed with three levels of precipitation manipulation (control, -30% and +30%). After 2.5 years of treatments, in August, 2015, soil samples were collected from the topsoil (0-15cm) of all plots (n=18). High-throughput sequencing technology was used to assess the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Analysis of variance for a blocked split-plot design was used to detect the effects of climate change drivers and their interaction on the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Our results showed that 1) only the significant effect of warming on fungal community abundance was observed (P <0.05); 2) on average, warming decreased both bacterial and fungal community abundance by 20.90% and 32.30%, 6.69% and 45.89%, 14.71% and 19.56% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 3) however, warming increased the relative bacterium/fungus ratio on average by 14.03%, 37.03% and 14.31% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 4) the phylogenetic distribution of bacterial and fungal groups and their relative abundance varied among treatments; 5) treatments altered the relative abundance of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, where Ascomycota decreased with a concomitant increase in the Basidiomycota across all treatments; and 6) the shift induced by treatments in the dominant fungal group was larger than bacterial group. Since soil microorganisms differ in their susceptibility to stressors, the changes in the soil microbial communities may result from treatment-induced shifts in soil temperature and moisture. Our results indicate that climate change drivers and their interactions may cause changes in abundance and composition of soil microbial communities, especially for the fungal community. These results illustrate climate change drivers and their interactions may select for distinct soil microbial communities, and these community changes may shape the way ecosystems function in the future. This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2013R1A1A2012242).

A Multifactor Secure Authentication System for Wireless Payment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanyal, Sugata; Tiwari, Ayu; Sanyal, Sudip

Organizations are deploying wireless based online payment applications to expand their business globally, it increases the growing need of regulatory requirements for the protection of confidential data, and especially in internet based financial areas. Existing internet based authentication systems often use either the Web or the Mobile channel individually to confirm the claimed identity of the remote user. The vulnerability is that access is based on only single factor authentication which is not secure to protect user data, there is a need of multifactor authentication. This paper proposes a new protocol based on multifactor authentication system that is both secure and highly usable. It uses a novel approach based on Transaction Identification Code and SMS to enforce another security level with the traditional Login/password system. The system provides a highly secure environment that is simple to use and deploy with in a limited resources that does not require any change in infrastructure or underline protocol of wireless network. This Protocol for Wireless Payment is extended as a two way authentications system to satisfy the emerging market need of mutual authentication and also supports secure B2B communication which increases faith of the user and business organizations on wireless financial transaction using mobile devices.

Temperature effects on sinking velocity of different Emiliania huxleyi strains.

PubMed

Rosas-Navarro, Anaid; Langer, Gerald; Ziveri, Patrizia

2018-01-01

The sinking properties of three strains of Emiliania huxleyi in response to temperature changes were examined. We used a recently proposed approach to calculate sinking velocities from coccosphere architecture, which has the advantage to be applicable not only to culture samples, but also to field samples including fossil material. Our data show that temperature in the sub-optimal range impacts sinking velocity of E. huxleyi. This response is widespread among strains isolated in different locations and moreover comparatively predictable, as indicated by the similar slopes of the linear regressions. Sinking velocity was positively correlated to temperature as well as individual cell PIC/POC over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range in all strains. In the context of climate change our data point to an important influence of global warming on sinking velocities. It has recently been shown that seawater acidification has no effect on sinking velocity of a Mediterranean E. huxleyi strain, while nutrient limitation seems to have a small negative effect on sinking velocity. Given that warming, acidification, and lowered nutrient availability will occur simultaneously under climate change scenarios, the question is what the net effect of different influential factors will be. For example, will the effects of warming and nutrient limitation cancel? This question cannot be answered conclusively but analyses of field samples in addition to laboratory culture studies will improve predictions because in field samples multi-factor influences and even evolutionary changes are not excluded. As mentioned above, the approach of determining sinking rate followed here is applicable to field samples. Future studies could use it to analyse not only seasonal and geographic patterns but also changes in sinking velocity over geological time scales.

Interactive effects of global change factors on soil respiration and its components: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Lingyan; Zhou, Xuhui; Shao, Junjiong; Nie, Yuanyuan; He, Yanghui; Jiang, Liling; Wu, Zhuoting; Hosseini Bai, Shahla

2016-09-01

As the second largest carbon (C) flux between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, soil respiration (Rs) plays vital roles in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]) and climatic dynamics in the earth system. Although numerous manipulative studies and a few meta-analyses have been conducted to determine the responses of Rs and its two components [i.e., autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) respiration] to single global change factors, the interactive effects of the multiple factors are still unclear. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of 150 multiple-factor (≥2) studies to examine the main and interactive effects of global change factors on Rs and its two components. Our results showed that elevated [CO2 ] (E), nitrogen addition (N), irrigation (I), and warming (W) induced significant increases in Rs by 28.6%, 8.8%, 9.7%, and 7.1%, respectively. The combined effects of the multiple factors, EN, EW, DE, IE, IN, IW, IEW, and DEW, were also significantly positive on Rs to a greater extent than those of the single-factor ones. For all the individual studies, the additive interactions were predominant on Rs (90.6%) and its components (≈70.0%) relative to synergistic and antagonistic ones. However, the different combinations of global change factors (e.g., EN, NW, EW, IW) indicated that the three types of interactions were all important, with two combinations for synergistic effects, two for antagonistic, and five for additive when at least eight independent experiments were considered. In addition, the interactions of elevated [CO2 ] and warming had opposite effects on Ra and Rh, suggesting that different processes may influence their responses to the multifactor interactions. Our study highlights the crucial importance of the interactive effects among the multiple factors on Rs and its components, which could inform regional and global models to assess the climate-biosphere feedbacks and improve predictions of the future states of the ecological and climate systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment.

PubMed

De Kauwe, Martin G; Medlyn, Belinda E; Walker, Anthony P; Zaehle, Sönke; Asao, Shinichi; Guenet, Bertrand; Harper, Anna B; Hickler, Thomas; Jain, Atul K; Luo, Yiqi; Lu, Xingjie; Luus, Kristina; Parton, William J; Shu, Shijie; Wang, Ying-Ping; Werner, Christian; Xia, Jianyang; Pendall, Elise; Morgan, Jack A; Ryan, Edmund M; Carrillo, Yolima; Dijkstra, Feike A; Zelikova, Tamara J; Norby, Richard J

2017-09-01

Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above-ground net primary productivity (range: 31-390 g C m -2  yr -1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single-factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 -induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive (CO 2  × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 enrichment experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Kauwe, Martin G.; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Walker, Anthony P.

Multi-factor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multi-factor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multi-factor experiments can be used to constrain models, and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above-ground net primary productivity (range: 31-390 g C m -2 yr -1). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularlymore » in respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against single-factors was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the nitrogen cycle models, nitrogen availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they over-estimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2-induced water savings to extend growing season length. Observed interactive (CO 2 x warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology and species composition. Since the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. Finally, we outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.« less

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 enrichment experiment

DOE PAGES

De Kauwe, Martin G.; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Walker, Anthony P.; ...

2017-02-01

Multi-factor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multi-factor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multi-factor experiments can be used to constrain models, and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above-ground net primary productivity (range: 31-390 g C m -2 yr -1). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularlymore » in respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against single-factors was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the nitrogen cycle models, nitrogen availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they over-estimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2-induced water savings to extend growing season length. Observed interactive (CO 2 x warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology and species composition. Since the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. Finally, we outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.« less

From foetid air to filth: the cultural transformation of British epidemiological thought, ca. 1780-1848.

PubMed

Brown, Michael

2008-01-01

Eighteenth-and early nineteenth-century ideas about the occurrence and spread of epidemic disease were complex and contested. Although many thought that diseases such as plague, typhus, and cholera were contagious and were communicated from person to person or via the medium of goods, others believed that they were the product of atmospheric change. Moreover, as historians have emphasized, the early nineteenth century saw a move from a multifactoral, climatic etiology toward one that prioritized specific local corruption of the atmosphere caused by putrefying animal and vegetable matter. In this paper, I extend this analysis by linking to recent literature on dirt and disgust and exploring the importance of theologies. I examine the work of two key figures in the history of British epidemiology, Charles Maclean and Thomas Southwood Smith, and demonstrate how the latter's increasing emphasis upon the causal agency of filth was structured by his Unitarian faith and his belief in a universally benevolent God.

Effects of elevated CO₂, warming and precipitation change on plant growth, photosynthesis and peroxidation in dominant species from North China grassland.

PubMed

Xu, Zhenzhu; Shimizu, Hideyuki; Ito, Shoko; Yagasaki, Yasumi; Zou, Chunjing; Zhou, Guangsheng; Zheng, Yuanrun

2014-02-01

Warming, watering and elevated atmospheric CO₂-concentration effects have been extensively studied separately; however, their combined impact on plants is not well understood. In the current research, we examined plant growth and physiological responses of three dominant species from the Eurasian Steppe with different functional traits to a combination of elevated CO₂, high temperature, and four simulated precipitation patterns. Elevated CO₂ stimulated plant growth by 10.8-41.7 % for a C₃ leguminous shrub, Caragana microphylla, and by 33.2-52.3 % for a C₃ grass, Stipa grandis, across all temperature and watering treatments. Elevated CO₂, however, did not affect plant biomass of a C₄ grass, Cleistogenes squarrosa, under normal or increased precipitation, whereas a 20.0-69.7 % stimulation of growth occurred with elevated CO₂ under drought conditions. Plant growth was enhanced in the C₃ shrub and the C₄ grass by warming under normal precipitation, but declined drastically with severe drought. The effects of elevated CO₂ on leaf traits, biomass allocation and photosynthetic potential were remarkably species-dependent. Suppression of photosynthetic activity, and enhancement of cell peroxidation by a combination of warming and severe drought, were partly alleviated by elevated CO₂. The relationships between plant functional traits and physiological activities and their responses to climate change were discussed. The present results suggested that the response to CO₂ enrichment may strongly depend on the response of specific species under varying patterns of precipitation, with or without warming, highlighting that individual species and multifactor dependencies must be considered in a projection of terrestrial ecosystem response to climatic change.

Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): Towards a New Adjusted Radiosonde Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Free, M. P.; Angell, J. K.; Durre, I.; Klein, S.; Lanzante, J.; Lawrimore, J.; Peterson, T.; Seidel, D.

2002-05-01

The objective of NOAA's RATPAC project is to develop climate-quality global, hemispheric and zonal upper-air temperature time series from the NCDC radiosonde database. Lanzante, Klein and Seidel (LKS) have produced an 87-station adjusted radiosonde dataset using a multifactor expert decision approach. Our goal is to extend this dataset spatially and temporally and to provide a method to update it routinely at NCDC. Since the LKS adjustment method is too labor-intensive for these purposes, we are investigating a first-difference method (Peterson et al., 1998) and an automated version of the LKS method. The first difference method (FD) can be used to combine large numbers of time series into spatial means, but also introduces a random error in the resulting large-scale averages. If the portions of the time series with suspect continuity are withheld from the calculations, it has the potential to reconstruct the real variability without the effects of the discontinuities. However, tests of FD on unadjusted radiosonde data and on reanalysis temperature data suggest that it must be used with caution when the number of stations is low and the number of data gaps is high. Because of these problems with the first difference approach, we are also considering an automated version of the LKS adjustment method using statistical change points, day-night temperature difference series, relationships between changes in adjacent atmospheric levels, and station histories to identify inhomogeneities in the temperature data.

A primer on multifactor productivity : description, benefits, and uses

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-01

This primer presents a description of multifactor : productivity (MFP) and its calculation. Productivity : is an important measure of the state of the : economy at various levels: firm, industry, sectoral, : and the macroeconomic. The method describe...

An analysis of labor and multifactor productivity in air transportation : 1990 - 2001

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

The analysis has two main objectives: 1) to examine : labor productivity and multifactor productivity : (MFP) in U.S. air transportation during the 1990 : to 2001 period and to compare these measures to : those of two other transportation subsectors ...

A comparison of linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in performance attribution.

PubMed

Chan, N H; Genovese, C R

2001-01-01

Performance attribution is usually conducted under the linear framework of multifactor models. Although commonly used by practitioners in finance, linear multifactor models are known to be less than satisfactory in many situations. After a brief survey of nonlinear methods, nonlinear statistical techniques are applied to performance attribution of a portfolio constructed from a fixed universe of stocks using factors derived from some commonly used cross sectional linear multifactor models. By rebalancing this portfolio monthly, the cumulative returns for procedures based on standard linear multifactor model and three nonlinear techniques-model selection, additive models, and neural networks-are calculated and compared. It is found that the first two nonlinear techniques, especially in combination, outperform the standard linear model. The results in the neural-network case are inconclusive because of the great variety of possible models. Although these methods are more complicated and may require some tuning, toolboxes are developed and suggestions on calibration are proposed. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of modern nonlinear statistical techniques in performance attribution.

Estimating multi-factor cumulative watershed effects on fish populations with an individual-based model

Treesearch

Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback

2007-01-01

While the concept of cumulative effects is prominent in legislation governing environmental management, the ability to estimate cumulative effects remains limited. One reason for this limitation is that important natural resources such as fish populations may exhibit complex responses to changes in environmental conditions, particularly to alteration of multiple...

Effect of five enological practices and of the general phenolic composition on fermentation-related aroma compounds in Mencia young red wines.

PubMed

Añón, Ana; López, Jorge F; Hernando, Diego; Orriols, Ignacio; Revilla, Eugenio; Losada, Manuel M

2014-04-01

The effects of five technological procedures and of the contents of total anthocyanins and condensed tannins on 19 fermentation-related aroma compounds of young red Mencia wines were studied. Multifactor ANOVA revealed that levels of those volatiles changed significantly over the length of storage in bottles and, to a lesser extent, due to other technological factors considered; total anthocyanins and condensed tannins also changed significantly as a result of the five practices assayed. Five aroma compounds possessed an odour activity value >1 in all wines, and another four in some wines. Linear correlation among volatile compounds and general phenolic composition revealed that total anthocyanins were highly related to 14 different aroma compounds. Multifactor ANOVA, considering the content of total anthocyanins as a sixth random factor, revealed that this parameter affected significantly the contents of ethyl lactate, ethyl isovalerate, 1-pentanol and ethyl octanoate. Thus, the aroma of young red Mencia wines may be affected by levels of total anthocyanins. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An overview of a multifactor-system theory of personality and individual differences: III. Life span development and the heredity-environment issue.

PubMed

Powell, A; Royce, J R

1981-12-01

In Part III of this three-part series on multifactor-system theory, multivariate, life-span development is approached from the standpoint of a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ontogenesis of factors in each of the six systems. The pattern of quantitative development (described via the Gompertz equation and three developmental parameters) involves growth, stability, and decline, and qualitative development involves changes in the organization of factors (e.g., factor differentiation and convergence). Hereditary and environmental sources of variation are analyzed via the factor gene model and the concept of heredity-dominant factors, and the factor-learning model and environment-dominant factors. It is hypothesized that the sensory and motor systems are heredity dominant, that the style and value systems are environment dominant, and that the cognitive and affective systems are partially heredity dominant.

Multifactor Screener in the 2000 National Health Interview Survey Cancer Control Supplement: Validation Results

Cancer.gov

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) staff have assessed the validity of the Multifactor Screener in several studies: NCI's Observing Protein and Energy (OPEN) Study, the Eating at America's Table Study (EATS), and the joint NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

Multifactor Screener in the 2000 National Health Interview Survey Cancer Control Supplement: Overview

Cancer.gov

The Multifactor Screener may be useful to assess approximate intakes of fruits and vegetables, percentage energy from fat, and fiber. The screener asks respondents to report how frequently they consume foods in 16 categories. The screener also asks one question about the type of milk consumed.

Multifactor Screener in the 2000 National Health Interview Survey Cancer Control Supplement: Uses of Screener Estimates

Cancer.gov

Dietary intake estimates derived from the Multifactor Screener are rough estimates of usual intake of fruits and vegetables, fiber, calcium, servings of dairy, and added sugar. These estimates are not as accurate as those from more detailed methods (e.g., 24-hour recalls).

[Transpiration of Choerospondias axillaris in agro-forestrial system and its affecting factors].

PubMed

Zhao, Ying; Zhang, Bin; Zhao, Huachun; Wang, Mingzhu

2005-11-01

Measurement of transpiration is essential to assess plant water use efficiency. Applying Grainer method, this paper measured the sap flow of Choerospondias axillaries in an agro-forestrial system, aimed to evaluate the effects of intercropping and pruning on the diurnal variation of transpiration, and to relate the transpiration rate with climatic factors. The results showed that the diurnal variation of Choerospondias arillaries transpiration rate appeared in parabola, low in the morning and evening, and high at noon. The transpiration rate was closely related to leaf stomatal conductivity and soil water potential, especially the water potential in 100 cm soil depth (R = 0.737). The transpiration rate of Choerospondias axillaries was increased by about 40% approximately 160% in agro-forestrial system through the changes in regional environment and in the deep soil water use by tree. Correlation analysis and multi-factor successive regression analysis indicated that the transpiration was controlled by ray radiation intensity, air temperature and ground temperature, followed by the difference between saturated and actual vapor pressure and the wind speed. A statistical model for calculating the sap flow rate by micrometeorological factors was also provided.

Cautionary Note on Reporting Eta-Squared Values from Multifactor ANOVA Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierce, Charles A.; Block, Richard A.; Aguinis, Herman

2004-01-01

The authors provide a cautionary note on reporting accurate eta-squared values from multifactor analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. They reinforce the distinction between classical and partial eta-squared as measures of strength of association. They provide examples from articles published in premier psychology journals in which the authors…

Forest ecosystems of a Lower Gulf Coastal Plainlandscape: multifactor classification and analysis

Treesearch

P. Charles Goebel; Brian J. Palik; L. Katherine Kirkman; Mark B. Drew; Larry West; Dee C. Pederson

2001-01-01

The most common forestland classification techniques applied in the southeastern United States are vegetation-based. While not completely ignored, the application of multifactor, hierarchical ecosystem classifications are limited despite their widespread use in other regions of the eastern United States. We present one of the few truly integrated ecosystem...

A Multifactor Ecosystem Assessment of Wetlands Created Using a Novel Dredged Material Placement Technique in the Atchafalaya River, Louisiana: An Engineering With Nature Demonstration Project

DTIC Science & Technology

functions. The strategic placement of dredged materials in locations that mimic natural process promoted additional ecological benefits, especially...regarding wading bird and infaunal habitat, thus adhering to Engineering With Nature (EWN) processes. The multifactor approach improved the wetland

Long-duration effect of multi-factor stresses on the cellular biochemistry, oil-yielding performance and morphology of Nannochloropsis oculata

PubMed Central

Wei, Likun; Huang, Xuxiong

2017-01-01

Microalga Nannochloropsis oculata is a promising alternative feedstock for biodiesel. Elevating its oil-yielding capacity is conducive to cost-saving biodiesel production. However, the regulatory processes of multi-factor collaborative stresses (MFCS) on the oil-yielding performance of N. oculata are unclear. The duration effects of MFCS (high irradiation, nitrogen deficiency and elevated iron supplementation) on N. oculata were investigated in an 18-d batch culture. Despite the reduction in cell division, the biomass concentration increased, resulting from the large accumulation of the carbon/energy-reservoir. However, different storage forms were found in different cellular storage compounds, and both the protein content and pigment composition swiftly and drastically changed. The analysis of four biodiesel properties using pertinent empirical equations indicated their progressive effective improvement in lipid classes and fatty acid composition. The variation curve of neutral lipid productivity was monitored with fluorescent Nile red and was closely correlated to the results from conventional methods. In addition, a series of changes in the organelles (e.g., chloroplast, lipid body and vacuole) and cell shape, dependent on the stress duration, were observed by TEM and LSCM. These changes presumably played an important role in the acclimation of N. oculata to MFCS and accordingly improved its oil-yielding performance. PMID:28346505

On the Interface of Probabilistic and PDE Methods in a Multifactor Term Structure Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mamon, Rogemar S.

2004-01-01

Within the general framework of a multifactor term structure model, the fundamental partial differential equation (PDE) satisfied by a default-free zero-coupon bond price is derived via a martingale-oriented approach. Using this PDE, a result characterizing a model belonging to an exponential affine class is established using only a system of…

A Study on the Assessment of Multi-Factors Affecting Urban Floods Using Satellite Image: A Case Study in Nakdong Basin, S. Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwak, Youngjoo; Kondoh, Akihiko

2010-05-01

Floods are also related to the changes in social economic conditions and land use. Recently, floods increased due to rapid urbanization and human activity in the lowland. Therefore, integrated management of total basin system is necessary to get the secure society. Typhoon ‘Rusa’ swept through eastern and southern parts of South Korea in the 2002. This pity experience gave us valuable knowledge that could be used to mitigate the future flood hazards. The purpose of this study is to construct the digital maps of the multi-factors related to urban flood concerning geomorphologic characteristics, land cover, and surface wetness. Parameters particularly consider geomorphologic functional unit, geomorphologic parameters derived from DEM (digital elevation model), and land use. The research area is Nakdong River Basin in S. Korea. As a result of preliminary analysis for Pusan area, the vulnerability map and the flood-prone areas can be extracted by applying spatial analysis on GIS (geographic information system).

Measurement Invariance of Second-Order Factor Model of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) across K-12 Principal Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Lihua; Wubbena, Zane; Stewart, Trae

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factor structure and the measurement invariance of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) across gender of K-12 school principals (n=6,317) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach: Nine first-order factor models and four second-order factor models were tested using confirmatory…

Potential barriers to the application of multi-factor portfolio analysis in public hospitals: evidence from a pilot study in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Pavlova, Milena; Tsiachristas, Apostolos; Vermaeten, Gerhard; Groot, Wim

2009-01-01

Portfolio analysis is a business management tool that can assist health care managers to develop new organizational strategies. The application of portfolio analysis to US hospital settings has been frequently reported. In Europe however, the application of this technique has received little attention, especially concerning public hospitals. Therefore, this paper examines the peculiarities of portfolio analysis and its applicability to the strategic management of European public hospitals. The analysis is based on a pilot application of a multi-factor portfolio analysis in a Dutch university hospital. The nature of portfolio analysis and the steps in a multi-factor portfolio analysis are reviewed along with the characteristics of the research setting. Based on these data, a multi-factor portfolio model is developed and operationalized. The portfolio model is applied in a pilot investigation to analyze the market attractiveness and hospital strengths with regard to the provision of three orthopedic services: knee surgery, hip surgery, and arthroscopy. The pilot portfolio analysis is discussed to draw conclusions about potential barriers to the overall adoption of portfolio analysis in the management of a public hospital. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important negative feedback to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points, the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

Multi-factor authentication

DOEpatents

Hamlet, Jason R; Pierson, Lyndon G

2014-10-21

Detection and deterrence of spoofing of user authentication may be achieved by including a cryptographic fingerprint unit within a hardware device for authenticating a user of the hardware device. The cryptographic fingerprint unit includes an internal physically unclonable function ("PUF") circuit disposed in or on the hardware device, which generates a PUF value. Combining logic is coupled to receive the PUF value, combines the PUF value with one or more other authentication factors to generate a multi-factor authentication value. A key generator is coupled to generate a private key and a public key based on the multi-factor authentication value while a decryptor is coupled to receive an authentication challenge posed to the hardware device and encrypted with the public key and coupled to output a response to the authentication challenge decrypted with the private key.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2018-06-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2017-12-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

A Unique Computational Algorithm to Simulate Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model Complex Material Point Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2010-01-01

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points--the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

The Research of Regression Method for Forecasting Monthly Electricity Sales Considering Coupled Multi-factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui; Li, Tiantian; Yin, Shuo; He, Xinhui

2018-01-01

The monthly electricity sales forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safety of the power system. This paper presented a monthly electricity sales forecasting method which comprehensively considers the coupled multi-factors of temperature, economic growth, electric power replacement and business expansion. The mathematical model is constructed by using regression method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is accurate and effective.

Biometric Data Safeguarding Technologies Analysis and Best Practices

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

fuzzy vault” scheme proposed by Juels and Sudan. The scheme was designed to encrypt data such that it could be unlocked by similar but inexact matches... designed transform functions. Multifactor Key Generation Multifactor key generation combines a biometric with one or more other inputs, such as a...cooperative, off-angle iris images.  Since the commercialized system is designed for images acquired from a specific, paired acquisition system

Application of GA-SVM method with parameter optimization for landslide development prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X. Z.; Kong, J. M.

2013-10-01

Prediction of landslide development process is always a hot issue in landslide research. So far, many methods for landslide displacement series prediction have been proposed. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a novel algorithm with good performance. However, the performance strongly depends on the right selection of the parameters (C and γ) of SVM model. In this study, we presented an application of GA-SVM method with parameter optimization in landslide displacement rate prediction. We selected a typical large-scale landslide in some hydro - electrical engineering area of Southwest China as a case. On the basis of analyzing the basic characteristics and monitoring data of the landslide, a single-factor GA-SVM model and a multi-factor GA-SVM model of the landslide were built. Moreover, the models were compared with single-factor and multi-factor SVM models of the landslide. The results show that, the four models have high prediction accuracies, but the accuracies of GA-SVM models are slightly higher than those of SVM models and the accuracies of multi-factor models are slightly higher than those of single-factor models for the landslide prediction. The accuracy of the multi-factor GA-SVM models is the highest, with the smallest RSME of 0.0009 and the biggest RI of 0.9992.

Improving Models of Photosynthetic Thermal Acclimation: Which Parameters are Most Important and How Many Should Be Modified?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stinziano, J. R.; Way, D.; Bauerle, W.

2017-12-01

Photosynthetic temperature acclimation could strongly affect coupled vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks in the global carbon cycle, especially as the climate warms. Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis can be modelled as changes in the parameters describing the direct effect of temperature on photosynthetic capacity (activation energy, Ea; deactivation energy, Hd; entropy parameter, ΔS) or the basal value of photosynthetic capacity (i.e. photosynthetic capacity measured at 25 °C), however the impact of acclimating these parameters (individually or in combination) on vegetative carbon gain is relatively unexplored. Here we compare the ability of 66 photosynthetic temperature acclimation scenarios to improve predictions of a spatially explicit canopy carbon flux model, MAESTRA, for eddy covariance data from a loblolly pine forest. We show that: 1) incorporating seasonal temperature acclimation of basal photosynthetic capacity improves the model's ability to capture seasonal changes in carbon fluxes; 2) multifactor scenarios of photosynthetic temperature acclimation provide minimal (if any) improvement in model performance over single factor acclimation scenarios; 3) acclimation of enzyme activation energies should be restricted to the temperature ranges of the data from which the equations are derived; and 4) model performance is strongly affected by the choice of deactivation energy. We suggest that a renewed effort be made into understanding the thermal acclimation of enzyme activation and deactivation energies across broad temperature ranges to better understand the mechanisms underlying thermal photosynthetic acclimation.

Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

2018-06-01

China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

Probabilistic Usage of the Multi-Factor Interaction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2008-01-01

A Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to predict the insulating foam mass expulsion during the ascending of a space vehicle. The exponents in the MFIM are evaluated by an available approach which consists of least squares and an optimization algorithm. These results were subsequently used to probabilistically evaluate the effects of the uncertainties in each participating factor in the mass expulsion. The probabilistic results show that the surface temperature dominates at high probabilities and the pressure which causes the mass expulsion at low probabil

Nurse executive transformational leadership found in participative organizations.

PubMed

Dunham-Taylor, J

2000-05-01

The study examined a national sample of 396 randomly selected hospital nurse executives to explore transformational leadership, stage of power, and organizational climate. Results from a few nurse executive studies have found nurse executives were transformational leaders. As executives were more transformational, they achieved better staff satisfaction and higher work group effectiveness. This study integrates Bass' transformational leadership model with Hagberg's power stage theory and Likert's organizational climate theory. Nurse executives (396) and staff reporting to them (1,115) rated the nurse executives' leadership style, staff extra effort, staff satisfaction, and work group effectiveness using Bass and Avolio's Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire. Executives' bosses (360) rated executive work group effectiveness. Executives completed Hagberg's Personal Power Profile and ranked their organizational climate using Likert's Profile of Organizational Characteristics. Nurse executives used transformational leadership fairly often; achieved fairly satisfied staff levels; were very effective according to bosses; were most likely at stage 3 (power by achievement) or stage 4 (power by reflection); and rated their hospital as a Likert System 3 Consultative Organization. Staff satisfaction and work group effectiveness decreased as nurse executives were more transactional. Higher transformational scores tended to occur with higher educational degrees and within more participative organizations. Transformational qualities can be enhanced by further education, by achieving higher power stages, and by being within more participative organizations.

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haun, J. R.

1976-01-01

One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

A graph-based approach to inequality assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palestini, Arsen; Pignataro, Giuseppe

2016-08-01

In a population consisting of heterogeneous types, whose income factors are indicated by nonnegative vectors, policies aggregating different factors can be represented by coalitions in a cooperative game, whose characteristic function is a multi-factor inequality index. When it is not possible to form all coalitions, the feasible ones can be indicated by a graph. We redefine Shapley and Banzhaf values on graph games to deduce some properties involving the degrees of the graph vertices and marginal contributions to overall inequality. An example is finally provided based on a modified multi-factor Atkinson index.

Multi-factor Analysis of Pre-control Fracture Simulations about Projectile Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Ren-Yi; Zhou, Wei

2016-05-01

The study of projectile material pre-control fracture is helpful to improve the projectile metal effective fragmentation and the material utilization rate. Fragments muzzle velocity and lethality can be affected by the different explosive charge and the way of initiation. The finite element software can simulate the process of projectile explosive rupture which has a pre-groove in the projectile shell surface and analysis of typical node velocity change with time, to provides a reference for the design and optimization of precontrol frag.

Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry: a global synthesis.

PubMed

Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin; Peng, Yan; Li, Zhijie; Wu, Fuzhong; Peng, Changhui

2017-06-01

Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers [i.e., nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, and elevated CO 2 ] on primary productivity and on the biogeochemistry of carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P) across different terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we capitalize on this large amount of information by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis (>2000 case studies worldwide) to address how C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (i) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO 2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (ii) combined effects of pairs of global change drivers (e.g., N addition + elevated CO 2 , warming + elevated CO 2 ) on C:N:P stoichiometry were generally weaker than the individual effects of each of these drivers, (iii) additive interactions (i.e., when combined effects are equal to or not significantly different from the sum of individual effects) were more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (iv) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (v) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate, and experimental conditions. Our study is one of the first to compare individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P ratios using a large set of data. To further improve our understanding of how ecosystems might respond to future global change, long-term ecosystem-scale studies testing multifactor effects on plants and soils are urgently required across different world regions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-Factor Analysis for Selecting Lunar Exploration Soft Landing Area and the best Cruise Route

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mou, N.; Li, J.; Meng, Z.; Zhang, L.; Liu, W.

2018-04-01

Selecting the right soft landing area and planning a reasonable cruise route are the basic tasks of lunar exploration. In this paper, the Von Karman crater in the Antarctic Aitken basin on the back of the moon is used as the study area, and multi-factor analysis is used to evaluate the landing area and cruise route of lunar exploration. The evaluation system mainly includes the factors such as the density of craters, the impact area of craters, the formation of the whole area and the formation of some areas, such as the vertical structure, rock properties and the content of (FeO + TiO2), which can reflect the significance of scientific exploration factor. And the evaluation of scientific exploration is carried out on the basis of safety and feasibility. On the basis of multi-factor superposition analysis, three landing zones A, B and C are selected, and the appropriate cruising route is analyzed through scientific research factors. This study provides a scientific basis for the lunar probe landing and cruise route planning, and it provides technical support for the subsequent lunar exploration.

The Human Performance Envelope: Past Research, Present Activities and Future Directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Tamsyn

2017-01-01

Air traffic controllers (ATCOs) must maintain a consistently high level of human performance in order to maintain flight safety and efficiency. In current control environments, performance-influencing factors such as workload, fatigue and situation awareness can co-occur, and interact, to effect performance. However, multifactor influences and the association with performance are under-researched. This study utilized a high fidelity human in the loop enroute air traffic control simulation to investigate the relationship between workload, situation awareness and ATCO performance. The study aimed to replicate and extend Edwards, Sharples, Wilson and Kirwans (2012) previous study and confirm multifactor interactions with a participant sample of ex-controllers. The study also aimed to extend Edwards et als previous research by comparing multifactor relationships across 4 automation conditions. Results suggest that workload and SA may interact to produce a cumulative impact on controller performance, although the effect of the interaction on performance may be dependent on the context and amount of automation present. Findings have implications for human-automation teaming in air traffic control, and the potential prediction and support of ATCO performance.

Permafrost carbon cycles under multifactor global change: a modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Natali, S.; Schaedel, C.; Schuur, E. A.; Luo, Y.

2012-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from permafrost zones are projected to be elevated under global change scenarios, but the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of these greenhouse gas sources are still highly uncertain. Here we implement and evaluate the integration of a methane model into the Community Atmosphere-Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE v1.5 of CSIRO, Australia) in order to explore the carbon emissions under warming, elevated CO2 and altered precipitation. The weather data was obtained from a tundra site named eight mile lake in Alaska and the data of years 2004-2009 was used to tune and validate the model. First, data obtained from measurement were transformed to meet the input weather data required by the model. Second, model parameters regarding vegetation and soil were modified to accurately simulate the permafrost site. For example, we modified the resistivity of soil in the model so that the modeled energy balance was found to match with the observations. Currently, the modeled NPP are relatively higher but soil temperature is lower than the observations. Third, a new methane module is being integrated into the model. We simulate the methane production, oxidation and emission processes (ebullition, diffusion and plant-aided transport). We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production and oxidation in soils. We link water table position (WTP) with the available amount of decomposable carbon for methanogens, in combination with spatially explicit simulation of soil temperature. We also validated the model and resolved the discrepancy between the model and observation. In this presentation, we will describe results of simulations to forecast CO2 and CH4 fluxes under climate change scenarios.

The prevalence and structure of obsessive-compulsive personality disorder in Hispanic psychiatric outpatients

PubMed Central

Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Crosby, Ross D.; Becker, Daniel F.; Añez, Luis M.; Paris, Manuel; Grilo, Carlos M.

2010-01-01

This study sought to confirm a multi-factor model of Obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) in a Hispanic outpatient sample and to explore associations of the OCPD factors with aggression, depression, and suicidal thoughts. One hundred and thirty monolingual, Spanish-speaking participants were recruited from a community mental health center and were assessed by bilingual doctoral level clinicians. OCPD was highly prevalent (26%) in this sample. Multi-factor models of OCPD were tested and the two factors - perfectionism and interpersonal rigidity - provided the best model fit. Interpersonal rigidity was associated with aggression and anger while perfectionism was associated with depression and suicidal thoughts. PMID:20227063

A Simple and Computationally Efficient Approach to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction Analysis of Gene-Gene Interactions for Quantitative Traits

PubMed Central

Gui, Jiang; Moore, Jason H.; Williams, Scott M.; Andrews, Peter; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Navis, Gerjan; Van Gilst, Wiek H.; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Gilbert-Diamond, Diane

2013-01-01

We present an extension of the two-class multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) algorithm that enables detection and characterization of epistatic SNP-SNP interactions in the context of a quantitative trait. The proposed Quantitative MDR (QMDR) method handles continuous data by modifying MDR’s constructive induction algorithm to use a T-test. QMDR replaces the balanced accuracy metric with a T-test statistic as the score to determine the best interaction model. We used a simulation to identify the empirical distribution of QMDR’s testing score. We then applied QMDR to genetic data from the ongoing prospective Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study. PMID:23805232

Computational analysis of gene-gene interactions using multifactor dimensionality reduction.

PubMed

Moore, Jason H

2004-11-01

Understanding the relationship between DNA sequence variations and biologic traits is expected to improve the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of common human diseases. Success in characterizing genetic architecture will depend on our ability to address nonlinearities in the genotype-to-phenotype mapping relationship as a result of gene-gene interactions, or epistasis. This review addresses the challenges associated with the detection and characterization of epistasis. A novel strategy known as multifactor dimensionality reduction that was specifically designed for the identification of multilocus genetic effects is presented. Several case studies that demonstrate the detection of gene-gene interactions in common diseases such as atrial fibrillation, Type II diabetes and essential hypertension are also discussed.

The prevalence and structure of obsessive-compulsive personality disorder in Hispanic psychiatric outpatients.

PubMed

Ansell, Emily B; Pinto, Anthony; Crosby, Ross D; Becker, Daniel F; Añez, Luis M; Paris, Manuel; Grilo, Carlos M

2010-09-01

This study sought to confirm a multi-factor model of Obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) in a Hispanic outpatient sample and to explore associations of the OCPD factors with aggression, depression, and suicidal thoughts. One hundred and thirty monolingual, Spanish-speaking participants were recruited from a community mental health center and were assessed by bilingual doctoral-level clinicians. OCPD was highly prevalent (26%) in this sample. Multi-factor models of OCPD were tested and the two factors - perfectionism and interpersonal rigidity - provided the best model fit. Interpersonal rigidity was associated with aggression and anger while perfectionism was associated with depression and suicidal thoughts. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What mental health teams want in their leaders.

PubMed

Corrigan, P W; Garman, A N; Lam, C; Leary, M

1998-11-01

The authors present the findings of the first phase of a 3-year study developing a skills training curriculum for mental health team leaders. A factor model empirically generated from clinical team members was compared to Bass' (1990) Multifactor Model of Leadership. Members of mental health teams generated individual responses to questions about effective leaders. Results from this survey were subsequently administered to a sample of mental health team members. Analysis of these data yielded six factors: Autocratic Leadership, Clear Roles and Goals, Reluctant Leadership, Vision, Diversity Issues, and Supervision. Additional analyses suggest Bass' Multifactor Model offers a useful paradigm for developing a curriculum specific to the needs of mental health team leaders.

Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jingxu; Lin, Jintai; Ni, Ruijing

2016-04-01

Rapid industrial and economic growth has meant a large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere with strong radiative forcing (RF) upon the climate system. Over parts of the globe, the negative forcing of aerosols has overcompensated for the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Aerosol RF is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. In this study, we analyze the major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA), and black carbon (BC). We analyze the RF of aerosols produced by 11 major regions across the globe, including but not limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Factors analyzed include population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), emission intensity (i.e., emissions per unit GDP), chemical efficiency (i.e., mass per unit emissions) and radiative efficiency (i.e., RF per unit mass). We find that among the 11 regions, East Asia produces the largest emissions and aerosol RF, due to relatively high emission intensity and a tremendous population size. South Asia produce the second largest RF of SIOA and BC and the highest RF of POA, in part due to its highest chemical efficiency among all regions. Although Southeast Asia also has large emissions, its aerosol RF is alleviated by its lowest chemical efficiency. The chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency of BC produced by the Middle East-North Africa are the highest across the regions, whereas its RF is lowered by a small per capita GDP. Both North America and Western Europe have low emission intensity, compensating for the effects on RF of large population sizes and per capita GDP. There has been a momentum to transfer industries to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and such transition is expected to continue in the coming years. The resulting relocation of emissions would meant drastic changes in both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of RF, with consequences on regional and global climate forcing. Our findings are relevant to global aerosol control and climate mitigation.

Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Lin, J.; Ni, R.

2016-12-01

Rapid industrial and economic growth has meant large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere with strong radiative forcing (RF) upon the climate system. Over parts of the globe, the negative forcing of aerosols has overcompensated for the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Aerosol RF is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. In this study, we analyze the major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA), and black carbon (BC). We analyze the RFof aerosols produced by 11 major regions across the globe, including but not limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Factors analyzed include population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), emission intensity (i.e., emissionsper unit GDP), chemical efficiency (i.e., mass per unit emissions) and radiative efficiency (i.e., RF per unit mass). We find that among the 11 regions, East Asia produces the largest emissions and aerosol RF, due to relatively high emission intensity and a tremendous population size.South Asia produce the second largest RF of SIOA and BC and the highest RF of POA, in part due to its highest chemical efficiency among all regions. Although Southeast Asia also has large emissions,its aerosol RF is alleviated by its lowest chemical efficiency.The chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency of BC produced by the Middle East-North Africa are the highest across the regions, whereas its RF is loweredbyasmall per capita GDP.Both North America and Western Europe have low emission intensity, compensating for the effects on RF of large population sizes and per capita GDP. There has been a momentum to transfer industries to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and such transition is expected to continue in the coming years. The resulting relocation of emissions would meant drastic changes in both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of RF, with consequences on regional and global climate forcing. Our findings are relevant to global aerosol control and climate mitigation.

The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondarenko, Y.

I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary popula- tion sickness cases in Dnipropetrovsk City (1.2 million persons) are described by the multi-factor predictive SEIS & GIS model of geopathogenic zones that determines the human health risk and hazards. Results and Conclusions. We have created the SEIS system and multi-factor predictive SEIS model for the analysis of phase-metric spatio- 1 temporal nonlinear correlation and variations of rhythms of human health, ecological, genetic, epidemiological risks, demographic, socio-economic, bio-geophysical, bio- geodynamic processes in geopathogenic hazard zones. Cosmophotomaps "CPM" of vegetation index, anthropogenic-landscape and landscape-geophysical human health risk of Dnipropetrovsk City present synthesis-based elements of multi-layer GIS, which include multispectral images SPOT o, maps of different geophysical, geochem- ical, anthropogenic and citogenic risk factors, maps of integral oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary population sickness cases for administrative districts. Results of multi-layer spatio-temporal correlation of geophysical field parameters and variations of population sickness rate rhythms have enabled us to state grounds and to develop medico-biological and bio-geodynamic classification of geopathogenic zones. Bio-geodynamic model has served to define contours of anthropogenic-landscape and landscape-geophysical human health risk in Dnipropetrovsk City. Biorhythmic vari- ations give foundation for understanding physiological mechanisms of organism`s adaptation to extreme helio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic environmental condi- tions, which are dictated by changes in Multi-factor Correlation Stress Field "MCSF" with deformation of 5D SEIS. Interaction between organism and environment results in continuous superpositioning of external (exogenic) Nuclear-Molecular-Cristallic "NMC" MCSF rhythms on internal (endogenic) Nuclear-Molecular-Cellular "NMCl" MCSF rhythms. Their resonance wave (energy-information) integration and disinte- gration are responsible for structural and functional state of different physiological systems. Herewith, complex restructurization of defense functions blocks the adapta- tion process and may turn to be the primary reason for phase shifting, process and biorhythms hindering, appearance of different deseases. Interaction of biorhythms with natural and anthropogenic rhythms specify the peculiar features of environ- mental adaptation of living species. Such interaction results in correlation of sea- sonal rhythms in variations of thermo-baro-geodynamic "TBG" parameters of am- bient air with toxic concentration and human health risk in Dnipropetrovsk City. Bio-geodynamic analysis of medical and demographic situations has provided for search of spatio-temporal correlation between rhythms of general and primary pop- ulation sickness cases and oncologic case rate frequency, other medico-demographic rhythms, natural processes (helio-geophysical, thermodynamic, geodynamic) and an- thropogenic processes (industrial and houschold waste disposal, toxic emissions and their concentration in ambient air). The year of 1986, the year of minimum helio- geophysical activity "2G1dG1" and maximum anthropogenic processes associated with changes in sickness and death rates of the population of Earth were synchronized. With account of quantum character of SEIS rhythms, 5 reference levels of desyn- chronized helio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes affecting population sick- ness rate have been specified within bio-geodynamic models. The first reference level 2 of SEIS desynchronization includes rhythms with period of 22,5 years: ... 1958,2; 1980,7; 2003,2; .... The second reference level of SEIS desynchronization includes rhythms with period of 11,25 years: ... 1980,7; 1992; 2003,2;.... The third reference level covers 5,625-years periodic rhythms2:... 1980,7; 1986,3; 1992; 1997,6; 2003,2; .... The fourth quantum reference level includes rhythms 3 with period of 2,8125 years: ... 1980,7; 1983,5; 1986,3; 1989,1; 1992; 1994,8; 1997,6; 2000,4; 2003,2; .... Rhythms with 1,40625-years period fall is fifth reference level of SEIS desynchro- nization: ...1980,7; 1982,1; 1983,5; 1984,9; 1986,3; 1987,7; 1989,1; 1990,5; 1992; 1993,3; 1994,8; 1996,2; 1997,6; 1999; 2000,4; 2001,8; 2003,2;.... Analysis of alternat- ing medical and demographic situation in Ukraine (1981-1992)and in Dnipropetrovsk (1988-1995)has allowed to back up theoretical model of various-level rhythm quan- tum, with non-linear regularities due to phase-metric spatio-temporal deformation be- ing specified. Application of new technologies of Risk Analysis, Sinthesis and SEIS Modeling at the choice of a burial place for dangerous radioactive wastes in the zone of Chernobyl nuclear disaster (Shestopalov V., Bondarenko Y...., 1998) has shown their very high efficiency in comparison with GIS Analysis. IV.Recommendations and Outlook. In order to draw a conclusion regarding bio-geodynamic modeling of spatio-temporal structure of areas where common childhood sickness rate exists, it is necessary to mention that the only thing that can favour to exact predicting of where and when important catastrophes and epidemies will take place is correct and complex bio-geodynamic modeling. Imperfection of present GIS is the result of the lack of interactive facilities for multi-factor modeling of nonlinear natural and an- thropogenic processes. Equations' coefficients calculated for some areas are often irrelevant when applied to others. In this connection there arises a number of prob- lems concerning practical application and reliability of GIS-models that are used to carry out efficient ecological monitoring. References Bondarenko Y., 1997, Drawing up Cosmophotomaps and Multi-factor Forecasting of Hazard of Development of Dan- gerous Geodynamic Processes in Dnipropetrovsk,The Technically-Natural Problems of failures and catastrophes in connection with development of dangerous geological processes, Kiev, Ukraine, 1997. Bondarenko Y., 1997, The Methodology of a State the Value of Quality of the Ground and the House Level them Ecology-Genetic-Toxic of the human health risk based on multi-layer cartographical model", Experience of application GIS - Technologies for creating Cadastral Systems, Yalta, Ukraine, 1997, p. 39-40. Shestopalov V., Bondarenko Y., Zayonts I., Rudenko Y. , Bohuslavsky A., 1998, Complexation of Structural-Geodynamical and Hydrogeological Methods of Studying Areas to Reveal Geological Structural Perspectives for Deep Isolation of Radioactive Wastes, Field Testing and Associated Modeling of Potential High-Level Nuclear Waste Geologic Disposal Sites, Berkeley, USA, 1998, p.81-82. 3

Probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyce, Lola; Keating, Jerome P.; Lovelace, Thomas B.; Bast, Callie C.

1991-01-01

The results of a second year effort of a research program are presented. The research included development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic phenomenological constitutive relationship, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to a number of effects of primitive variables. These primitive variables often originate in the environment and may include stress from loading, temperature, chemical, or radiation attack. This multifactor interaction constitutive equation is included in the computer program, PROMISS. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with the multiple linear regression of that data.

Experimental fire increases soil carbon dioxide efflux in a grassland long-term multifactor global change experiment.

PubMed

Strong, Aaron L; Johnson, Tera P; Chiariello, Nona R; Field, Christopher B

2017-05-01

Numerous studies have demonstrated that soil respiration rates increase under experimental warming, although the long-term, multiyear dynamics of this feedback are not well constrained. Less is known about the effects of single, punctuated events in combination with other longer-duration anthropogenic influences on the dynamics of soil carbon (C) loss. In 2012 and 2013, we assessed the effects of decadal-scale anthropogenic global change - warming, increased nitrogen (N) deposition, elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and increased precipitation - on soil respiration rates in an annual-dominated Mediterranean grassland. We also investigated how controlled fire and an artificial wet-up event, in combination with exposure to the longer-duration anthropogenic global change factors, influenced the dynamics of C cycling in this system. Decade-duration surface soil warming (1-2 °C) had no effect on soil respiration rates, while +N addition and elevated CO 2 concentrations increased growing-season soil CO 2 efflux rates by increasing annual aboveground net primary production (NPP) and belowground fine root production, respectively. Low-intensity experimental fire significantly elevated soil CO 2 efflux rates in the next growing season. Based on mixed-effects modeling and structural equation modeling, low-intensity fire increased growing-season soil respiration rates through a combination of three mechanisms: large increases in soil temperature (3-5 °C), significant increases in fine root production, and elevated aboveground NPP. Our study shows that in ecosystems where soil respiration has acclimated to moderate warming, further increases in soil temperature can stimulate greater soil CO 2 efflux. We also demonstrate that punctuated short-duration events such as fire can influence soil C dynamics with implications for both the parameterization of earth system models (ESMs) and the implementation of climate change mitigation policies that involve land-sector C accounting. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A robust multifactor dimensionality reduction method for detecting gene-gene interactions with application to the genetic analysis of bladder cancer susceptibility

PubMed Central

Gui, Jiang; Andrew, Angeline S.; Andrews, Peter; Nelson, Heather M.; Kelsey, Karl T.; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moore, Jason H.

2010-01-01

A central goal of human genetics is to identify and characterize susceptibility genes for common complex human diseases. An important challenge in this endeavor is the modeling of gene-gene interaction or epistasis that can result in non-additivity of genetic effects. The multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) method was developed as machine learning alternative to parametric logistic regression for detecting interactions in absence of significant marginal effects. The goal of MDR is to reduce the dimensionality inherent in modeling combinations of polymorphisms using a computational approach called constructive induction. Here, we propose a Robust Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (RMDR) method that performs constructive induction using a Fisher’s Exact Test rather than a predetermined threshold. The advantage of this approach is that only those genotype combinations that are determined to be statistically significant are considered in the MDR analysis. We use two simulation studies to demonstrate that this approach will increase the success rate of MDR when there are only a few genotype combinations that are significantly associated with case-control status. We show that there is no loss of success rate when this is not the case. We then apply the RMDR method to the detection of gene-gene interactions in genotype data from a population-based study of bladder cancer in New Hampshire. PMID:21091664

A Combinatorial Approach to Detecting Gene-Gene and Gene-Environment Interactions in Family Studies

PubMed Central

Lou, Xiang-Yang; Chen, Guo-Bo; Yan, Lei; Ma, Jennie Z.; Mangold, Jamie E.; Zhu, Jun; Elston, Robert C.; Li, Ming D.

2008-01-01

Widespread multifactor interactions present a significant challenge in determining risk factors of complex diseases. Several combinatorial approaches, such as the multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) method, have emerged as a promising tool for better detecting gene-gene (G × G) and gene-environment (G × E) interactions. We recently developed a general combinatorial approach, namely the generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) method, which can entertain both qualitative and quantitative phenotypes and allows for both discrete and continuous covariates to detect G × G and G × E interactions in a sample of unrelated individuals. In this article, we report the development of an algorithm that can be used to study G × G and G × E interactions for family-based designs, called pedigree-based GMDR (PGMDR). Compared to the available method, our proposed method has several major improvements, including allowing for covariate adjustments and being applicable to arbitrary phenotypes, arbitrary pedigree structures, and arbitrary patterns of missing marker genotypes. Our Monte Carlo simulations provide evidence that the PGMDR method is superior in performance to identify epistatic loci compared to the MDR-pedigree disequilibrium test (PDT). Finally, we applied our proposed approach to a genetic data set on tobacco dependence and found a significant interaction between two taste receptor genes (i.e., TAS2R16 and TAS2R38) in affecting nicotine dependence. PMID:18834969

Multifactor Screener in OPEN: Scoring Procedures & Results

Cancer.gov

Scoring procedures were developed to convert a respondent's screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for percentage energy from fat, grams of fiber, and servings of fruits and vegetables.

Integrating Map Algebra and Statistical Modeling for Spatio- Temporal Analysis of Monthly Mean Daily Incident Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) over a Complex Terrain.

PubMed

Evrendilek, Fatih

2007-12-12

This study aims at quantifying spatio-temporal dynamics of monthly mean dailyincident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) over a vast and complex terrain such asTurkey. The spatial interpolation method of universal kriging, and the combination ofmultiple linear regression (MLR) models and map algebra techniques were implemented togenerate surface maps of PAR with a grid resolution of 500 x 500 m as a function of fivegeographical and 14 climatic variables. Performance of the geostatistical and MLR modelswas compared using mean prediction error (MPE), root-mean-square prediction error(RMSPE), average standard prediction error (ASE), mean standardized prediction error(MSPE), root-mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSPE), and adjustedcoefficient of determination (R² adj. ). The best-fit MLR- and universal kriging-generatedmodels of monthly mean daily PAR were validated against an independent 37-year observeddataset of 35 climate stations derived from 160 stations across Turkey by the Jackknifingmethod. The spatial variability patterns of monthly mean daily incident PAR were moreaccurately reflected in the surface maps created by the MLR-based models than in thosecreated by the universal kriging method, in particular, for spring (May) and autumn(November). The MLR-based spatial interpolation algorithms of PAR described in thisstudy indicated the significance of the multifactor approach to understanding and mappingspatio-temporal dynamics of PAR for a complex terrain over meso-scales.

Are general and strategic measures of organizational context and leadership associated with knowledge and attitudes toward evidence-based practices in public behavioral health settings? A cross-sectional observational study.

PubMed

Powell, Byron J; Mandell, David S; Hadley, Trevor R; Rubin, Ronnie M; Evans, Arthur C; Hurford, Matthew O; Beidas, Rinad S

2017-05-12

Examining the role of modifiable barriers and facilitators is a necessary step toward developing effective implementation strategies. This study examines whether both general (organizational culture, organizational climate, and transformational leadership) and strategic (implementation climate and implementation leadership) organizational-level factors predict therapist-level determinants of implementation (knowledge of and attitudes toward evidence-based practices). Within the context of a system-wide effort to increase the use of evidence-based practices (EBPs) and recovery-oriented care, we conducted an observational, cross-sectional study of 19 child-serving agencies in the City of Philadelphia, including 23 sites, 130 therapists, 36 supervisors, and 22 executive administrators. Organizational variables included characteristics such as EBP initiative participation, program size, and proportion of independent contractor therapists; general factors such as organizational culture and climate (Organizational Social Context Measurement System) and transformational leadership (Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire); and strategic factors such as implementation climate (Implementation Climate Scale) and implementation leadership (Implementation Leadership Scale). Therapist-level variables included demographics, attitudes toward EBPs (Evidence-Based Practice Attitudes Scale), and knowledge of EBPs (Knowledge of Evidence-Based Services Questionnaire). We used linear mixed-effects regression models to estimate the associations between the predictor (organizational characteristics, general and strategic factors) and dependent (knowledge of and attitudes toward EBPs) variables. Several variables were associated with therapists' knowledge of EBPs. Clinicians in organizations with more proficient cultures or higher levels of transformational leadership (idealized influence) had greater knowledge of EBPs; conversely, clinicians in organizations with more resistant cultures, more functional organizational climates, and implementation climates characterized by higher levels of financial reward for EBPs had less knowledge of EBPs. A number of organizational factors were associated with the therapists' attitudes toward EBPs. For example, more engaged organizational cultures, implementation climates characterized by higher levels of educational support, and more proactive implementation leadership were all associated with more positive attitudes toward EBPs. This study provides evidence for the importance of both general and strategic organizational determinants as predictors of knowledge of and attitudes toward EBPs. The findings highlight the need for longitudinal and mixed-methods studies that examine the influence of organizational factors on implementation.

Leveraging Commercially Issued Multi-Factor Identification Credentials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldridge, Tim W.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Identity, Credential and Access Management (ICAM) system. This system is a complete system of identity management, access to desktops and applications, use of smartcards, and building access throughout NASA.

Prediction of passenger ride quality in a multifactor environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dempsey, T. K.; Leatherwood, J. D.

1976-01-01

A model being developed, permits the understanding and prediction of passenger discomfort in a multifactor environment with particular emphasis upon combined noise and vibration. The model has general applicability to diverse transportation systems and provides a means of developing ride quality design criteria as well as a diagnostic tool for identifying the vibration and/or noise stimuli causing discomfort. Presented are: (1) a review of the basic theoretical and mathematical computations associated with the model, (2) a discussion of methodological and criteria investigations for both the vertical and roll axes of vibration, (3) a description of within-axis masking of discomfort responses for the vertical axis, thereby allowing prediction of the total discomfort due to any random vertical vibration, (4) a discussion of initial data on between-axis masking, and (5) discussion of a study directed towards extension of the vibration model to the more general case of predicting ride quality in the combined noise and vibration environments.

Entropy measure of credit risk in highly correlated markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschalk, Sylvia

2017-07-01

We compare the single and multi-factor structural models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Single-factor structural models assume that the stochastic process driving the value of a firm is independent of that of other companies. A multi-factor structural model, on the contrary, is built on the assumption that a single firm's value follows a stochastic process correlated with that of other companies. Our main results show that the divergence between the two models increases in highly correlated, volatile, and large markets, but that it is closer to zero in small markets, when asset correlations are low and firms are highly leveraged. These findings suggest that during periods of financial instability, when asset volatility and correlations increase, one of the models misreports actual default risk.

Application of the multifactor dimensionality reduction method in evaluation of the roles of multiple genes/enzymes in multidrug-resistant acquisition in Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains.

PubMed

Yao, Z; Peng, Y; Bi, J; Xie, C; Chen, X; Li, Y; Ye, X; Zhou, J

2016-03-01

Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (MDRPA) infections are major threats to healthcare-associated infection control and the intrinsic molecular mechanisms of MDRPA are also unclear. We examined 348 isolates of P. aeruginosa, including 188 MDRPA and 160 non-MDRPA, obtained from five tertiary-care hospitals in Guangzhou, China. Significant correlations were found between gene/enzyme carriage and increased rates of antimicrobial resistance (P < 0·01). gyrA mutation, OprD loss and metallo-β-lactamase (MBL) presence were identified as crucial molecular risk factors for MDRPA acquisition by a combination of univariate logistic regression and a multifactor dimensionality reduction approach. The MDRPA rate was also elevated with the increase in positive numbers of those three determinants (P < 0·001). Thus, gyrA mutation, OprD loss and MBL presence may serve as predictors for early screening of MDRPA infections in clinical settings.

Mining nutrigenetics patterns related to obesity: use of parallel multifactor dimensionality reduction.

PubMed

Karayianni, Katerina N; Grimaldi, Keith A; Nikita, Konstantina S; Valavanis, Ioannis K

2015-01-01

This paper aims to enlighten the complex etiology beneath obesity by analysing data from a large nutrigenetics study, in which nutritional and genetic factors associated with obesity were recorded for around two thousand individuals. In our previous work, these data have been analysed using artificial neural network methods, which identified optimised subsets of factors to predict one's obesity status. These methods did not reveal though how the selected factors interact with each other in the obtained predictive models. For that reason, parallel Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (pMDR) was used here to further analyse the pre-selected subsets of nutrigenetic factors. Within pMDR, predictive models using up to eight factors were constructed, further reducing the input dimensionality, while rules describing the interactive effects of the selected factors were derived. In this way, it was possible to identify specific genetic variations and their interactive effects with particular nutritional factors, which are now under further study.

The Research on Tunnel Surrounding Rock Classification Based on Geological Radar and Probability Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao Yong, Zhao; Xin, Ji Yong; Shuang Ying, Zuo

2018-03-01

In order to effectively classify the surrounding rock types of tunnels, a multi-factor tunnel surrounding rock classification method based on GPR and probability theory is proposed. Geological radar was used to identify the geology of the surrounding rock in front of the face and to evaluate the quality of the rock face. According to the previous survey data, the rock uniaxial compressive strength, integrity index, fissure and groundwater were selected for classification. The related theories combine them into a multi-factor classification method, and divide the surrounding rocks according to the great probability. Using this method to classify the surrounding rock of the Ma’anshan tunnel, the surrounding rock types obtained are basically the same as those of the actual surrounding rock, which proves that this method is a simple, efficient and practical rock classification method, which can be used for tunnel construction.

Spectroscopically Enhanced Method and System for Multi-Factor Biometric Authentication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pishva, Davar

This paper proposes a spectroscopic method and system for preventing spoofing of biometric authentication. One of its focus is to enhance biometrics authentication with a spectroscopic method in a multifactor manner such that a person's unique ‘spectral signatures’ or ‘spectral factors’ are recorded and compared in addition to a non-spectroscopic biometric signature to reduce the likelihood of imposter getting authenticated. By using the ‘spectral factors’ extracted from reflectance spectra of real fingers and employing cluster analysis, it shows how the authentic fingerprint image presented by a real finger can be distinguished from an authentic fingerprint image embossed on an artificial finger, or molded on a fingertip cover worn by an imposter. This paper also shows how to augment two widely used biometrics systems (fingerprint and iris recognition devices) with spectral biometrics capabilities in a practical manner and without creating much overhead or inconveniencing their users.

Transformational, transactional, and passive-avoidant leadership characteristics of a surgical resident cohort: analysis using the multifactor leadership questionnaire and implications for improving surgical education curriculums.

PubMed

Horwitz, Irwin B; Horwitz, Sujin K; Daram, Pallavi; Brandt, Mary L; Brunicardi, F Charles; Awad, Samir S

2008-07-01

The need for leadership training has become recognized as being highly important to improving medical care, and should be included in surgical resident education curriculums. Surgical residents (n = 65) completed the 5x-short version of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire as a means of identifying leadership areas most in need of training among medical residents. The leadership styles of the residents were measured on 12 leadership scales. Comparisons between gender and postgraduate year (PGY) and comparisons to national norms were conducted. Of 12 leadership scales, the residents as a whole had significantly higher management by exception active and passive scores than those of the national norm (t = 6.6, P < 0.01, t = 2.8, P < 0.01, respectively), and significantly lower individualized consideration scores than the norm (t = 2.7, P < 0.01). Only one score, management by exception active was statistically different and higher among males than females (t = 2.12, P < 0.05). PGY3-5 had significantly lower laissez-faire scores than PGY1-2 (t = 2.20, P < 0.05). Principal component analysis revealed two leadership factors with eigenvalues over 1.0. Hierarchical regression found evidence of an augmentation effect for transformational leadership. Areas of resident leadership strengths and weaknesses were identified. The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire was demonstrated to be a valuable tool for identifying specific areas where leadership training would be most beneficial in the educational curriculum. The future use of this instrument could prove valuable to surgical education training programs.

Development and validation of a multifactor mindfulness scale in youth: The Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experiences-Adolescents (CHIME-A).

PubMed

Johnson, Catherine; Burke, Christine; Brinkman, Sally; Wade, Tracey

2017-03-01

Mindfulness-based interventions show consistent benefits in adults for a range of pathologies, but exploration of these approaches in youth is an emergent field, with limited measures of mindfulness for this population. This study aimed to investigate whether multifactor scales of mindfulness can be used in adolescents. A series of studies are presented assessing the performance of a recently developed adult measure, the Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experiences (CHIME) in 4 early adolescent samples. Study 1 was an investigation of how well the full adult measure (37 items) was understood by youth (N = 292). Study 2 piloted a revision of items in child friendly language with a small group (N = 48). The refined questionnaire for adolescents (CHIME-A) was then tested in Study 3 in a larger sample (N = 461) and subjected to exploratory factor analysis and a range of external validity measures. Study 4 was a confirmatory factor analysis in a new sample (N = 498) with additional external validity measures. Study 5 tested temporal stability (N = 120). Results supported an 8-factor 25-item measure of mindfulness in adolescents, with excellent model fit indices and sound internal consistency for the 8 subscales. Although the CFA supported an overarching factor, internal reliability of a combined total score was poor. The development of a multifactor measure represents a first step toward testing developmental models of mindfulness in young people. This in turn will aid construction of evidence based interventions that are not simply downward derivations of adult mindfulness programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A detailed view on Model-Based Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction for detecting gene-gene interactions in case-control data in the absence and presence of noise

PubMed Central

CATTAERT, TOM; CALLE, M. LUZ; DUDEK, SCOTT M.; MAHACHIE JOHN, JESTINAH M.; VAN LISHOUT, FRANÇOIS; URREA, VICTOR; RITCHIE, MARYLYN D.; VAN STEEN, KRISTEL

2010-01-01

SUMMARY Analyzing the combined effects of genes and/or environmental factors on the development of complex diseases is a great challenge from both the statistical and computational perspective, even using a relatively small number of genetic and non-genetic exposures. Several data mining methods have been proposed for interaction analysis, among them, the Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction Method (MDR), which has proven its utility in a variety of theoretical and practical settings. Model-Based Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MB-MDR), a relatively new MDR-based technique that is able to unify the best of both non-parametric and parametric worlds, was developed to address some of the remaining concerns that go along with an MDR-analysis. These include the restriction to univariate, dichotomous traits, the absence of flexible ways to adjust for lower-order effects and important confounders, and the difficulty to highlight epistasis effects when too many multi-locus genotype cells are pooled into two new genotype groups. Whereas the true value of MB-MDR can only reveal itself by extensive applications of the method in a variety of real-life scenarios, here we investigate the empirical power of MB-MDR to detect gene-gene interactions in the absence of any noise and in the presence of genotyping error, missing data, phenocopy, and genetic heterogeneity. For the considered simulation settings, we show that the power is generally higher for MB-MDR than for MDR, in particular in the presence of genetic heterogeneity, phenocopy, or low minor allele frequencies. PMID:21158747

Exploring the interaction among EPHX1, GSTP1, SERPINE2, and TGFB1 contributing to the quantitative traits of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Chinese Han population.

PubMed

An, Li; Lin, Yingxiang; Yang, Ting; Hua, Lin

2016-05-18

Currently, the majority of genetic association studies on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk focused on identifying the individual effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as well as their interaction effects on the disease. However, conventional genetic studies often use binary disease status as the primary phenotype, but for COPD, many quantitative traits have the potential correlation with the disease status and closely reflect pathological changes. Here, we genotyped 44 SNPs from four genes (EPHX1, GSTP1, SERPINE2, and TGFB1) in 310 patients and 203 controls which belonged to the Chinese Han population to test the two-way and three-way genetic interactions with COPD-related quantitative traits using recently developed generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) and quantitative multifactor dimensionality reduction (QMDR) algorithms. Based on the 310 patients and the whole samples of 513 subjects, the best gene-gene interactions models were detected for four lung-function-related quantitative traits. For the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), the best interaction was seen from EPHX1, SERPINE2, and GSTP1. For FEV1%pre, the forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1/FVC, the best interactions were seen from SERPINE2 and TGFB1. The results of this study provide further evidence for the genotype combinations at risk of developing COPD in Chinese Han population and improve the understanding on the genetic etiology of COPD and COPD-related quantitative traits.

Endotoxin exposure and changes in short-term pulmonary function among sewage workers.

PubMed

Cyprowski, Marcin; Sobala, Wojciech; Buczyńska, Alina; Szadkowska-Stańczyk, Irena

2015-01-01

The inhaled endotoxin is considered as a causative factor in the process of acute bronchial obstruction, which can be measured by a decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1). The aim of this study was to assess endotoxin exposure among sewage treatment plant workers (STPW) and its effect on across-shift changes in respiratory airflow. A group of 78 STPW from a large sewage treatment plant was studied. Inhalable dust for endotoxin assessment was collected using personal aerosol samplers. Endotoxin was assayed with the kinetic, chromogenic Limulus amebocyte lysate test. Across-shift spirometric measurements were performed on Mondays, after 2-days absence from work, with the use of portable spirometer. The forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1 parameters were analyzed. Multifactor regression modeling was performed to determine parameters significantly associated with endotoxin exposure. The concentration of inhalable dust and endotoxin ranged from 0.01-1.38 mg/m3 and 0.68-214 endotoxin units per cubic meter of air (EU/m3), respectively. Endotoxins were characterized with the skewed distribution (arithmetic mean (AM) = 38.8 EU/m3, geometric mean (GM) = 15.4 EU/m3, geometric standard deviation (GSD) = 4.21). Through the use of multifactor analysis, which excluded the main confounders (inhalable dust and smoking habit) it was found that, despite low levels of endotoxin, it had significant impact on the observed across-shift decline in FEV1 (p = 0.044). For this parameter, the regression slope was additionally calculated (r = -0.017, p = 0.071). Relatively low levels of endotoxin among sewage treatment plant workers may cause small, but significant across-shift declines in FEV1. The observed relationship was independent of organic dust concentrations and smoking habit. The respiratory protection should be provided for STPW. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Confounding Problems in Multifactor AOV When Using Several Organismic Variables of Limited Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Games, Paul A.

1975-01-01

A brief introduction is presented on how multiple regression and linear model techniques can handle data analysis situations that most educators and psychologists think of as appropriate for analysis of variance. (Author/BJG)

Connecting to HPC Systems | High-Performance Computing | NREL

Science.gov Websites

one of the following methods, which use multi-factor authentication. First, you will need to set up If you just need access to a command line on an HPC system, use one of the following methods

Outdoor Leaders' Emotional Intelligence and Transformational Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Aya; Ewert, Alan

2006-01-01

This study explored the concept of outdoor leadership from the perspectives of emotional intelligence and transformational leadership. Levels of emotional intelligence, multifactor leadership, outdoor experience, and social desirability were examined using 46 individuals designated as outdoor leaders. The results revealed a number of unique…

75 FR 67776 - Comment Request; Review of Productivity Statistics

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-03

... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics Comment Request; Review of Productivity Statistics... Statistics (BLS) is responsible for publishing measures of labor productivity and multifactor productivity..., Office of Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room 2150, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE...

GeoChip 3.0: A High Throughput Tool for Analyzing Microbial Community, Composition, Structure, and Functional Activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Zhili; Deng, Ye; Nostrand, Joy Van

2010-05-17

Microarray-based genomic technology has been widely used for microbial community analysis, and it is expected that microarray-based genomic technologies will revolutionize the analysis of microbial community structure, function and dynamics. A new generation of functional gene arrays (GeoChip 3.0) has been developed, with 27,812 probes covering 56,990 gene variants from 292 functional gene families involved in carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur cycles, energy metabolism, antibiotic resistance, metal resistance, and organic contaminant degradation. Those probes were derived from 2,744, 140, and 262 species for bacteria, archaea, and fungi, respectively. GeoChip 3.0 has several other distinct features, such as a common oligomore » reference standard (CORS) for data normalization and comparison, a software package for data management and future updating, and the gyrB gene for phylogenetic analysis. Our computational evaluation of probe specificity indicated that all designed probes had a high specificity to their corresponding targets. Also, experimental analysis with synthesized oligonucleotides and genomic DNAs showed that only 0.0036percent-0.025percent false positive rates were observed, suggesting that the designed probes are highly specific under the experimental conditions examined. In addition, GeoChip 3.0 was applied to analyze soil microbial communities in a multifactor grassland ecosystem in Minnesota, USA, which demonstrated that the structure, composition, and potential activity of soil microbial communities significantly changed with the plant species diversity. All results indicate that GeoChip 3.0 is a high throughput powerful tool for studying microbial community functional structure, and linking microbial communities to ecosystem processes and functioning. To our knowledge, GeoChip 3.0 is the most comprehensive microarrays currently available for studying microbial communities associated with geobiochemical cycling, global climate change, bioenergy, agricuture, land use, ecosystem management, environmental cleanup and restoration, bioreactor systems, and human health.« less

Areas of Potential Impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on EMS: A Synthesis of the Literature.

PubMed

Ostermayer, Daniel G; Brown, Charles A; Fernandez, William G; Couvillon, Emily

2017-04-01

This comprehensive review synthesizes the existing literature on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) as it relates to emergency medical services (EMS) in order to provide guidance for navigating current and future healthcare changes. We conducted a comprehensive review to identify all existing literature related to the ACA and EMS and all sections within the federal law pertaining to EMS. Many changes enacted by the ACA directly affect emergency care with potential indirect effects on EMS systems. New Medicaid enrollees and changes to existing coverage plans may alter EMS transport volumes. Reimbursement changes such as adjustments to the ambulance inflation factor (AIF) alter the yearly increases in EMS reimbursement by incorporating the multifactor productivity value into yearly reimbursement adjustments. New initiatives, funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation are exploring novel and cost-effective prehospital care delivery opportunities while EMS agencies individually explore partnerships with healthcare systems. EMS systems should be aware of the direct and indirect impact of ACA on prehospital care due to the potential for changes in financial reimbursement, acuity and volume changes, and ongoing new care delivery initiatives.

Areas of Potential Impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on EMS: A Synthesis of the Literature

PubMed Central

Ostermayer, Daniel G.; Brown, Charles A.; Fernandez, William G.; Couvillon, Emily

2017-01-01

Introduction This comprehensive review synthesizes the existing literature on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) as it relates to emergency medical services (EMS) in order to provide guidance for navigating current and future healthcare changes. Methods We conducted a comprehensive review to identify all existing literature related to the ACA and EMS and all sections within the federal law pertaining to EMS. Results Many changes enacted by the ACA directly affect emergency care with potential indirect effects on EMS systems. New Medicaid enrollees and changes to existing coverage plans may alter EMS transport volumes. Reimbursement changes such as adjustments to the ambulance inflation factor (AIF) alter the yearly increases in EMS reimbursement by incorporating the multifactor productivity value into yearly reimbursement adjustments. New initiatives, funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation are exploring novel and cost-effective prehospital care delivery opportunities while EMS agencies individually explore partnerships with healthcare systems. Conclusion EMS systems should be aware of the direct and indirect impact of ACA on prehospital care due to the potential for changes in financial reimbursement, acuity and volume changes, and ongoing new care delivery initiatives. PMID:28435495

You Have What? Personality! Traits That Predict Leadership Styles for Elementary Administrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Melinda

2013-01-01

This research explored relationships between followers' perceptions of elementary school principals' Big Five Personality Traits, using the "International Personality Item Pool" (IPIP) (Goldberg, 1999), and principals' Leadership Styles, using the "Multi-factor Leadership Questionnaire" (MLQ) (Bass & Avolio, 2004). A sample…

Understanding the Supplemental Instruction Leader

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Adrian; Moore, Lori

2018-01-01

This article explored the learning styles and leadership styles of Supplemental Instruction (SI) leaders at Texas A&M University, and the impact of those preferences on recurring attendance to their sessions. The Learning Style Inventory, the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, and a demographic instrument were administered to SI leaders…

Factorial Design: An Eight Factor Experiment Using Paper Helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozma, Michael

1996-01-01

The goal of this paper is to present the analysis of the multi-factor experiment (factorial design) conducted in EG490, Junior Design at Loyola College in Maryland. The discussion of this paper concludes the experimental analysis and ties the individual class papers together.

The Multiple Component Alternative for Gifted Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swassing, Ray

1984-01-01

The Multiple Component Model (MCM) of gifted education includes instruction which may overlap in literature, history, art, enrichment, languages, science, physics, math, music, and dance. The model rests on multifactored identification and requires systematic development and selection of components with ongoing feedback and evaluation. (CL)

Multilinear Graph Embedding: Representation and Regularization for Images.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Lei; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

2014-02-01

Given a set of images, finding a compact and discriminative representation is still a big challenge especially when multiple latent factors are hidden in the way of data generation. To represent multifactor images, although multilinear models are widely used to parameterize the data, most methods are based on high-order singular value decomposition (HOSVD), which preserves global statistics but interprets local variations inadequately. To this end, we propose a novel method, called multilinear graph embedding (MGE), as well as its kernelization MKGE to leverage the manifold learning techniques into multilinear models. Our method theoretically links the linear, nonlinear, and multilinear dimensionality reduction. We also show that the supervised MGE encodes informative image priors for image regularization, provided that an image is represented as a high-order tensor. From our experiments on face and gait recognition, the superior performance demonstrates that MGE better represents multifactor images than classic methods, including HOSVD and its variants. In addition, the significant improvement in image (or tensor) completion validates the potential of MGE for image regularization.

A Simple and Computationally Efficient Sampling Approach to Covariate Adjustment for Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction Analysis of Epistasis

PubMed Central

Gui, Jiang; Andrew, Angeline S.; Andrews, Peter; Nelson, Heather M.; Kelsey, Karl T.; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moore, Jason H.

2010-01-01

Epistasis or gene-gene interaction is a fundamental component of the genetic architecture of complex traits such as disease susceptibility. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) was developed as a nonparametric and model-free method to detect epistasis when there are no significant marginal genetic effects. However, in many studies of complex disease, other covariates like age of onset and smoking status could have a strong main effect and may potentially interfere with MDR's ability to achieve its goal. In this paper, we present a simple and computationally efficient sampling method to adjust for covariate effects in MDR. We use simulation to show that after adjustment, MDR has sufficient power to detect true gene-gene interactions. We also compare our method with the state-of-art technique in covariate adjustment. The results suggest that our proposed method performs similarly, but is more computationally efficient. We then apply this new method to an analysis of a population-based bladder cancer study in New Hampshire. PMID:20924193

Research on accuracy analysis of laser transmission system based on Zemax and Matlab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Haiping; Liu, Changchun; Ye, Haixian; Xiong, Zhao; Cao, Tingfen

2017-05-01

Laser transmission system is important in high power solid-state laser facilities and its function is to transfer and focus the light beam in accordance with the physical function of the facility. This system is mainly composed of transmission mirror modules and wedge lens module. In order to realize the precision alignment of the system, the precision alignment of the system is required to be decomposed into the allowable range of the calibration error of each module. The traditional method is to analyze the error factors of the modules separately, and then the linear synthesis is carried out, and the influence of the multi-module and multi-factor is obtained. In order to analyze the effect of the alignment error of each module on the beam center and focus more accurately, this paper aims to combine with the Monte Carlo random test and ray tracing, analyze influence of multi-module and multi-factor on the center of the beam, and evaluate and optimize the results of accuracy decomposition.

A Comparative Study on Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction Methods for Detecting Gene-Gene Interactions with the Survival Phenotype

PubMed Central

Lee, Seungyeoun; Kim, Yongkang; Kwon, Min-Seok; Park, Taesung

2015-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have extensively analyzed single SNP effects on a wide variety of common and complex diseases and found many genetic variants associated with diseases. However, there is still a large portion of the genetic variants left unexplained. This missing heritability problem might be due to the analytical strategy that limits analyses to only single SNPs. One of possible approaches to the missing heritability problem is to consider identifying multi-SNP effects or gene-gene interactions. The multifactor dimensionality reduction method has been widely used to detect gene-gene interactions based on the constructive induction by classifying high-dimensional genotype combinations into one-dimensional variable with two attributes of high risk and low risk for the case-control study. Many modifications of MDR have been proposed and also extended to the survival phenotype. In this study, we propose several extensions of MDR for the survival phenotype and compare the proposed extensions with earlier MDR through comprehensive simulation studies. PMID:26339630

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, High-Cycle and Low-Cycle Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Boyce, Lola

1995-01-01

The development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation is described. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing predictions of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects with experiments are presented. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported that material degradation can be represented by randomized multifactor interaction models.

A Computationally Efficient Hypothesis Testing Method for Epistasis Analysis using Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction

PubMed Central

Pattin, Kristine A.; White, Bill C.; Barney, Nate; Gui, Jiang; Nelson, Heather H.; Kelsey, Karl R.; Andrew, Angeline S.; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moore, Jason H.

2008-01-01

Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) was developed as a nonparametric and model-free data mining method for detecting, characterizing, and interpreting epistasis in the absence of significant main effects in genetic and epidemiologic studies of complex traits such as disease susceptibility. The goal of MDR is to change the representation of the data using a constructive induction algorithm to make nonadditive interactions easier to detect using any classification method such as naïve Bayes or logistic regression. Traditionally, MDR constructed variables have been evaluated with a naïve Bayes classifier that is combined with 10-fold cross validation to obtain an estimate of predictive accuracy or generalizability of epistasis models. Traditionally, we have used permutation testing to statistically evaluate the significance of models obtained through MDR. The advantage of permutation testing is that it controls for false-positives due to multiple testing. The disadvantage is that permutation testing is computationally expensive. This is in an important issue that arises in the context of detecting epistasis on a genome-wide scale. The goal of the present study was to develop and evaluate several alternatives to large-scale permutation testing for assessing the statistical significance of MDR models. Using data simulated from 70 different epistasis models, we compared the power and type I error rate of MDR using a 1000-fold permutation test with hypothesis testing using an extreme value distribution (EVD). We find that this new hypothesis testing method provides a reasonable alternative to the computationally expensive 1000-fold permutation test and is 50 times faster. We then demonstrate this new method by applying it to a genetic epidemiology study of bladder cancer susceptibility that was previously analyzed using MDR and assessed using a 1000-fold permutation test. PMID:18671250

Usable Multi-factor Authentication and Risk-based Authorization

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

acceptance. In the previous section we described user studies that explored risks perceived by individuals using online banking and credit card purchases... iTunes purchases. We note that the fingerprint scanners in the current experiment are very different from what would be available in future. However

Exploring the Relationships between Principals' Life Experiences and Transformational Leadership Behaviours

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nash, Steve; Bangert, Art

2014-01-01

The primary objective of this research study was to explore the relationships between principals' life experiences and their transformational leadership behaviours. Over 212 public school principals completed both the lifetime leadership inventory (LLI) and the multifactor leadership questionnaire (MLQ). Exploratory and confirmatory factor…

Obesity, hypertension and genetic variation in the TIGER Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Obesity and hypertension are multifactoral conditions in which the onset and severity of the conditions are influenced by the interplay of genetic and environmental factors. We hypothesize that multiple genes and environmental factors account for a significant amount of variation in BMI and blood pr...

Emotional Intelligence and the Career Choice Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emmerling, Robert J.; Cherniss, Cary

2003-01-01

Emotional intelligence as conceptualized by Mayer and Salovey consists of perceiving emotions, using emotions to facilitate thoughts, understanding emotions, and managing emotions to enhance personal growth. The Multifactor Emotional Intelligence Scale has proven a valid and reliable measure that can be used to explore the implications of…

Is there a genetic solution to bovine respiratory disease complex?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is a complex multi-factor disease, which increases costs and reduces revenue from feedlot cattle. Multiple stressors and pathogens (viral and bacterial) have been implicated in the etiology of BRDC, therefore multiple approaches will be needed to evaluate a...

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

2010-01-01

Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required to represent the ejected foam. The exponents were evaluated by least squares method from experimental data. The equation is used and it can represent multiple factors in other problems as well; for example, evaluation of fatigue life, creep life, fracture toughness, and structural fracture, as well as optimization functions. The software is rather simplistic. Required inputs are initial value, final value, and an exponent for each factor. The number of factors is open-ended. The value is updated as each factor is evaluated. If a factor goes to zero, the previous value is used in the evaluation.

Examining Dimensions of Self-Efficacy for Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruning, Roger; Dempsey, Michael; Kauffman, Douglas F.; McKim, Courtney; Zumbrunn, Sharon

2013-01-01

A multifactor perspective on writing self-efficacy was examined in 2 studies. Three factors were proposed--self-efficacy for writing ideation, writing conventions, and writing self-regulation--and a scale constructed to reflect these factors. In Study 1, middle school students (N = 697) completed the Self-Efficacy for Writing Scale (SEWS), along…

Do Leadership Styles Influence Organizational Health? A Study in Educational Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toprak, Mustafa; Inandi, Bulent; Colak, Ahmet Levent

2015-01-01

This research aims to investigate the effect of leadership styles of school principals on organizational health. Causal-comparative research model was used to analyze the relationships between leadership types and organizational health. For data collection, a Likert type Multifactor Leadership scale questionnaire and Organizational Health scale…

Transformational Leadership and the Leadership Performance of Oregon Secondary School Principals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breaker, Jason Lee

2009-01-01

A study of 118 secondary school principals in Oregon was conducted to examine the relationship of transformational leadership to secondary school principals' leadership performance. This study measured the transformational leadership of secondary school principals in Oregon using the "Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (5X-Short)"…

Appropriate Use Policy | High-Performance Computing | NREL

Science.gov Websites

users of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) High Performance Computing (HPC) resources government agency, National Laboratory, University, or private entity, the intellectual property terms (if issued a multifactor token which may be a physical token or a virtual token used with one-time password

The Negative Testing Effect and Multifactor Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Daniel J.; Mulligan, Neil W.

2013-01-01

Across 3 experiments, we investigated the factors that dictate when taking a test improves subsequent memory performance (the "testing effect"). In Experiment 1, participants retrieving a set of targets during a retrieval practice phase ultimately recalled fewer of those targets compared with a group of participants who studied the…

Worker Traits Training Unit. MA Handbook No. 314.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manpower Administration (DOL), Washington, DC.

This training unit provides persons involved in employment interviewing, vocational counseling, curriculum planning, and other manpower activities with a multifactor approach for obtaining information from an individual and relating the data to job requirements. It is intended to result in the development of the bridge between client potential and…

Organizational Deviance and Multi-Factor Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksu, Ali

2016-01-01

Organizational deviant behaviors can be defined as behaviors that have deviated from standards and uncongenial to organization's expectations. When such behaviors have been thought to damage the organization, it can be said that reducing the deviation behaviors at minimum level is necessary for a healthy organization. The aim of this research is…

A Multifactor Approach to Research in Instructional Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ragan, Tillman J.

In a field such as instructional design, explanations of educational outcomes must necessarily consider multiple input variables. To adequately understand the contribution made by the independent variables, it is helpful to have a visual conception of how the input variables interrelate. Two variable models are adequately represented by a two…

Teacher Perceptions of Principals' Leadership Qualities: A Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hauserman, Cal P.; Ivankova, Nataliya V.; Stick, Sheldon L.

2013-01-01

This mixed methods sequential explanatory study utilized the Multi-factor Leadership Questionnaire, responses to open-ended questions, and in-depth interviews to identify transformational leadership qualities that were present among principals in Alberta, Canada. The first quantitative phase consisted of a random sample of 135 schools (with…

System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakhidova, D. V.; Kadyrhodjaev, A.; Scientific Team Of Hydroengeo Institute On Natural Hazards

2010-12-01

Well-timed warning of the population about possible landslide threat is one of the main positions in order to provide safe and stable country development. The system of monitoring over dangerous geological processes includes such components, as observation, forecast, control and management. Aspects of forecasting take special place. Having wide row of observations there can be possible to reveal some regularity of the phenomena, basing on which, it is possible to proceed forecasting. We looked through many approaches of forecasting that are used in different countries. The analysis of the available work has allowed to draw up a conclusion that while referring to the question of landslide forecasting, it is necessary to approach in system form, taking into account interacting components of the nature. The study of landslide processes has shown that these processes lies within the framework of engineering-geological directions of the science and also interacts with tectonics, geomorphology, hydrogeology, hydrology, climate change, technogenesis and etc. Thereby, the necessity of system approach, achievements of modern science and technology the most expedient approach to make a decision at landslide forecasting is probabilistic-statistical method with complex use of geological and satellite data, specific images processed through geoinformation systems. In this connection, probabilistic-statistical approach, reflecting natural characteristics of interacting natural system, allows to take into account multi-factored processes of landslide activations. Among the many factors, influencing on landslide activation, there exist ones that are not amenable to numerical feature. The parameters of these factors have descriptive, qualitative, rather than quantitative nature. Leaving these factors with lack of attention is absolutely not reasonable. Proposed approach has one more advantage, which allows taking into account not only numerical, but also non-numeric parameters. Combination of multidisciplinary, systematic feature, multifactorness of the account, probabilistic and statistical methods of the calculation, complex use of geological and satellite data, using modern technology processing and analysis of information - all these aspects were collected in one at proposed by authors approach to solve the question of defining the area of possible landslide activation. Proposed by authors method could be a part of the monitoring system for early warning of landslide activation. Thus, the authors propose to initialize the project “System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides”. In the process of project implementation there to be revealed such results like: 1. System of Geo-indicators in order to early warn quick-running landslide processes. 2. United interconnected system for remote, surface and underground types of observations over Geo-indicators. 3. Notification system of population about forthcoming threat by means of alerts, light signals, mobilization of municipalities and related ministries. In the result of project implementation there considered to reveal economic, technical, and social outputs.

A Multi-Factor Analysis of Job Satisfaction among School Nurses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foley, Marcia; Lee, Julie; Wilson, Lori; Cureton, Virginia Young; Canham, Daryl

2004-01-01

Although job satisfaction has been widely studied among registered nurses working in traditional health care settings, little is known about the job-related values and perceptions of nurses working in school systems. Job satisfaction is linked to lower levels of job-related stress, burnout, and career abandonment among nurses. This study evaluated…

Investigating Teachers' Organizational Socialization Levels and Perceptions about Leadership Styles of Their Principals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kadi, Aysegül

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate teachers' organizational socialization levels and perceptions about leadership styles of their principals. Research was conducted with 361 teachers. Research design is determined as survey and correlational. Multi-Factor Leadership Scale originally was developed by Bass (1999) and adapted to Turkish…

Authentic Leadership--Is It More than Emotional Intelligence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Phyllis; Green, Mark; Gergen, Esther; Ecung, Wenonah

2017-01-01

One of the newest theories to gain widespread interest is authentic leadership. Part of the rationale for developing a model and subsequent instrument to measure authentic leadership was a concern that the more popular theory, the full range model of leadership and its instrument, the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) (Bass & Avolio,…

Emotional Enhancement Effect of Memory: Removing the Influence of Cognitive Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sommer, Tobias; Glascher, Jan; Moritz, Steffen; Buchel, Christian

2008-01-01

According to the modulation hypothesis, arousal is the crucial factor in the emotional enhancement of memory (EEM). However, the multifactor theory of the EEM recently proposed that cognitive characteristics of emotional stimuli, e.g., relatedness and distinctiveness, also play an important role. The current study aimed to investigate the…

An ecological classification system for the central hardwoods region: The Hoosier National Forest

Treesearch

James E. Van Kley; George R. Parker

1993-01-01

This study, a multifactor ecological classification system, using vegetation, soil characteristics, and physiography, was developed for the landscape of the Hoosier National Forest in Southern Indiana. Measurements of ground flora, saplings, and canopy trees from selected stands older than 80 years were subjected to TWINSPAN classification and DECORANA ordination....

Multifactor Screener in the 2000 National Health Interview Survey Cancer Control Supplement: Scoring Procedures

Cancer.gov

Scoring procedures were developed to convert a respondent's screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for percentage energy from fat, grams of fiber, and servings of fruits and vegetables, using USDA's 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes of Individuals (CSFII 94-96) dietary recall data.

Technical Notes on the Multifactor Method of Elementary School Closing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puleo, Vincent T.

This report provides preliminary technical information on a method for analyzing the factors involved in the closing of elementary schools. Included is a presentation of data and a brief discussion bearing on descriptive statistics, reliability, and validity. An intercorrelation matrix is also examined. The method employs 9 factors that have a…

Motivating Peak Performance: Leadership Behaviors That Stimulate Employee Motivation and Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Kerry

2007-01-01

The impact of leader behaviors on motivation levels of employees was examined in this study. Two hundred twenty-three vice presidents and chief officers from 104 member colleges and universities in the Council for Christian Colleges and Universities were sampled. Leaders were administered the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ-rater…

Faculty Member Perceptions of Academic Leadership Styles at Private Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gidman, Lori Kathleen

2013-01-01

The leadership style of academic leaders was studied through the eyes of faculty members. This empirical study looked at faculty perceptions of academic leadership with the use of a numerical survey as the basis for observation. Faculty members at six private liberal arts institutions completed the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) in…

The Relationship between School Principals' Leadership Styles and Collective Teacher Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akan, Durdagi

2013-01-01

This study aims to determine the relationship between school administrators' leadership styles and the collective teacher efficacy based on teachers' perceptions. In line with this objective, the multifactor leadership style scale and the collective teacher efficacy scale were applied on 223 teachers who were working in the province of Erzurum.…

Predicting plant species diversity in a longleaf pine landscape

Treesearch

L. Katherine Kirkman; P. Charles Goebel; Brian J. Palik; Larry T. West

2004-01-01

In this study, we used a hierarchical, multifactor ecological classification system to examine how spatial patterns of biodiversity develop in one of the most species-rich ecosystems in North America, the fire-maintained longleaf pine-wiregrass ecosystem and associated depressional wetlands and riparian forests. Our goal was to determine which landscape features are...

Goal Oriented and Risk Taking Behavior: The Roles of Multiple Systems for Caucasian and Arab-American Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tynan, Joshua J.; Somers, Cheryl L.; Gleason, Jamie H.; Markman, Barry S.; Yoon, Jina

2015-01-01

With Bronfenbrenner's (1977) ecological theory and other multifactor models (e.g. Pianta, 1999; Prinstein, Boergers, & Spirito, 2001) underlying this study design, the purpose was to examine, simultaneously, key variables in multiple life contexts (microsystem, mesosystem, exosystem levels) for their individual and combined roles in predicting…

A Study of Secondary School Principals' Leadership Styles and School Dropout Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baggerly-Hinojosa, Barbara

2012-01-01

This study examined the relationship between the leadership styles of secondary school principals, measured by the self-report "Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire 5X short" (Bass & Avolio, 2000) and the school's dropout rates, as reported by the Texas Education Agency in the Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) report while…

Can Multifactor Models of Teaching Improve Teacher Effectiveness Measures?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazarev, Valeriy; Newman, Denis

2014-01-01

NCLB waiver requirements have led to development of teacher evaluation systems, in which student growth is a significant component. Recent empirical research has been focusing on metrics of student growth--value-added scores in particular--and their relationship to other metrics. An extensive set of recent teacher-evaluation studies conducted by…

Bureaucratic Abuse and the False Dichotomy between Intentional and Unintentional Child Injuries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotch, Jonathan B.; And Others

This paper examines the arbitrary distinctions between intentional and unintentional child injuries, noting that a careful review of the literature of both child abuse and unintentional child injury revealed similarities among the risk factors associated with the two outcomes. A single, multifactor model of injury etiology, the ecologic model, is…

Computational simulation of coupled material degradation processes for probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyce, Lola; Bast, Callie C.

1992-01-01

The research included ongoing development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic material strength degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to a number of effects or primative variables. These primative variable may include high temperature, fatigue or creep. In most cases, strength is reduced as a result of the action of a variable. This multifactor interaction strength degradation equation has been randomized and is included in the computer program, PROMISS. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the above described constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with linear regression of that data, thereby predicting values for the empirical material constraints for each effect or primative variable. This regression methodology is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Actual experimental materials data were obtained from the open literature for materials typically of interest to those studying aerospace propulsion system components. Material data for Inconel 718 was analyzed using the developed methodology.

Waterborne Diseases & Illnesses

MedlinePlus

... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ...

Arsenic (Environmental Health Student Portal)

MedlinePlus

... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ...

On the source of stochastic volatility: Evidence from CAC40 index options during the subprime crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slim, Skander

2016-12-01

This paper investigates the performance of time-changed Lévy processes with distinct sources of return volatility variation for modeling cross-sectional option prices on the CAC40 index during the subprime crisis. Specifically, we propose a multi-factor stochastic volatility model: one factor captures the diffusion component dynamics and two factors capture positive and negative jump variations. In-sample and out-of-sample tests show that our full-fledged model significantly outperforms nested lower-dimensional specifications. We find that all three sources of return volatility variation, with different persistence, are needed to properly account for market pricing dynamics across moneyness, maturity and volatility level. Besides, the model estimation reveals negative risk premium for both diffusive volatility and downward jump intensity whereas a positive risk premium is found to be attributed to upward jump intensity.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Conference Attendance Patterns of Outdoor Orientation Program Staff at Four-Year Colleges in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Brent J.

2009-01-01

One purpose of professional conference attendance is to enhance social support. Intentionally fostering this support is an important political aim that should be developed. Although many multifactor definitions of social support exist (Cobb, 1979; Cohen & Syme, 1985; Kahn, 1979; Shaefer et al., 1981; Weiss, 1974), all distinguish between an…

Revisiting a Cognitive Framework for Test Design: Applications for a Computerized Perceptual Speed Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alderton, David L.

This paper highlights the need for a systematic, content aware, and theoretically-based approach to test design. The cognitive components approach is endorsed, and is applied to the development of a computerized perceptual speed test. Psychometric literature is reviewed and shows that: every major multi-factor theory includes a clerical/perceptual…

Bullying in Adolescent Residential Care: The Influence of the Physical and Social Residential Care Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sekol, Ivana

2016-01-01

Background: To date, no study examined possible contributions of environmental factors to bullying and victimization in adolescent residential care facilities. Objective: By testing one part of the Multifactor Model of Bullying in Secure Setting (MMBSS; Ireland in "Int J Adolesc Med Health" 24(1):63-68, 2012), this research examined the…

Academic Administrator Leadership Styles and the Impact on Faculty Job Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bateh, Justin; Heyliger, Wilton

2014-01-01

This article examines the impact of three leadership styles as a predictor of job satisfaction in a state university system. The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire was used to identify the leadership style of an administrator as perceived by faculty members. Spector's Job Satisfaction Survey was used to assess a faculty member's level of job…

The Impact of Mentor Leadership Styles on First-Year Adult Student Retention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith Staley, Charlesetta

2012-01-01

This quantitative study explored the leadership styles of mentors for retained first-year adult students to analyze whether the prevalent style had a higher impact on first-year adult student retention. The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) 5x was used to collect data on the mentors' leadership styles from the perspective of retained…

A Preliminary Study for a New Model of Sense of Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tartaglia, Stefano

2006-01-01

Although Sense of Community (SOC) is usually defined as a multidimensional construct, most SOC scales are unidimensional. To reduce the split between theory and empirical research, the present work identifies a multifactor structure for the Italian Sense of Community Scale (ISCS) that has already been validated as a unitary index of SOC. This…

Creativity in the Structure of Professionalism of a Higher School Teacher

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gladilina, Irina Petrovna

2016-01-01

In the science, due to the absence of strict and exact criteria for differentiating between creative and non-creative activities of a human, there is no rather full definition of "creativity" notion despite that this matter was addressed by many scholars. Multifactor field in the science on creativity allows interpreting the essence of…

Multifactor Screener in the 2000 National Health Interview Survey Cancer Control Supplement: Definition of Acceptable Dietary Data Values

Cancer.gov

We used the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes of Individuals (CSFII) data on reported intakes over two days of 24-hour recall to make judgments about reasonable frequencies of consumption that were reported on a per day basis.

Evaluating the metagenome of two sampling locations in the nasal cavity of cattle with bovine respiratory disease complex

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is a multi-factor disease, and disease incidence may be associated with an animal’s commensal microbiota (metagenome). Evaluation of the animal’s resident microbiota in the nasal cavity may help us to understand the impact of the metagenome on incidence of ...

Evaluating the microbiome of two sampling locations in the nasal cavity of cattle with bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is a multi-factor disease, and disease incidence may be associated with an animal’s commensal microbiota (metagenome). Evaluation of the animal’s resident microbiota in the nasal cavity may help us to understand the impact of the metagenome on incidence of ...

The Effects of Transformational Leadership and the Sense of Calling on Job Burnout among Special Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gong, Tao; Zimmerli, Laurie; Hoffer, Harry E.

2013-01-01

This article examines the effects of transformational leadership of supervisors and the sense of calling on job burnout among special education teachers. A total of 256 special education teachers completed the Maslach Burnout Inventory and rated their supervisors on the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire. The results reveal that transformational…

Identifying the Best Buys in U.S. Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eff, E. Anthon; Klein, Christopher C.; Kyle, Reuben

2012-01-01

Which U.S. institutions of higher education offer the best value to consumers? To answer this question, we evaluate U.S. institutions relative to a data envelopment analysis (DEA) multi-factor frontier based on 2000-2001 data for 1,179 4-year institutions. The resulting DEA "best buy" scores allow the ranking of institutions by a…

Inside The Zone of Proximal Development: Validating A Multifactor Model Of Learning Potential With Gifted Students And Their Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kanevsky, Lannie; Geake, John

2004-01-01

Kanevsky (1995b) proposed a model of learning potential based on Vygotsky?s notions of "good learning" and the zone of proximal development. This study investigated the contributions of general knowledge, information processing efficiency, and metacognition to differences in the learning potential of 5 gifted nongifted students.…

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Jeneva

2016-12-01

Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Treesearch

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Global patterns of drought recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of grossmore » primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.« less

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-10-01

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

PubMed

Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

2008-06-01

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.

PubMed

Visschers, Vivianne H M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decisionmaking process. Asmore » the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. Asmore » the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.« less

The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?

PubMed

Heffernan, Claire

2013-12-01

Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Public Perception of Climate Change: The Importance of Knowledge and Cultural Worldviews.

PubMed

Shi, Jing; Visschers, Vivianne H M; Siegrist, Michael

2015-12-01

The importance of knowledge for lay people's climate change concerns has been questioned in recent years, as it had been suggested that cultural values are stronger predictors of concern about climate change than knowledge. Studies that simultaneously measured knowledge related to climate change and cultural values have, however, been missing. We conducted a mail survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (N = 1,065). Results suggested that cultural worldviews and climate-related knowledge were significantly related with people's concern about climate change. Also, cultural worldviews and climate-relevant knowledge appeared important for people's willingness to change behaviors and to accept climate change policies. In addition, different types of knowledge were found to have different impacts on people's concern about climate change, their willingness to change behaviors, and their acceptance of policies about climate change. Specifically, causal knowledge significantly increased concern about climate change and willingness to support climate-friendly policies. We therefore concluded that risk communication should focus on causal knowledge, provided this knowledge does not threaten cultural values. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

PubMed

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes.

Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

2012-01-01

Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence

PubMed Central

Kordas, Rebecca L.; Harley, Christopher D. G.

2017-01-01

Changes in the Earth's environment are now sufficiently complex that our ability to forecast the emergent ecological consequences of ocean acidification (OA) is limited. Such projections are challenging because the effects of OA may be enhanced, reduced or even reversed by other environmental stressors or interactions among species. Despite an increasing emphasis on multifactor and multispecies studies in global change biology, our ability to forecast outcomes at higher levels of organization remains low. Much of our failure lies in a poor mechanistic understanding of nonlinear responses, a lack of specificity regarding the levels of organization at which interactions can arise, and an incomplete appreciation for linkages across these levels. To move forward, we need to fully embrace interactions. Mechanistic studies on physiological processes and individual performance in response to OA must be complemented by work on population and community dynamics. We must also increase our understanding of how linkages and feedback among multiple environmental stressors and levels of organization can generate nonlinear responses to OA. This will not be a simple undertaking, but advances are of the utmost importance as we attempt to mitigate the effects of ongoing global change. PMID:28356409

Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence.

PubMed

Kroeker, Kristy J; Kordas, Rebecca L; Harley, Christopher D G

2017-03-01

Changes in the Earth's environment are now sufficiently complex that our ability to forecast the emergent ecological consequences of ocean acidification (OA) is limited. Such projections are challenging because the effects of OA may be enhanced, reduced or even reversed by other environmental stressors or interactions among species. Despite an increasing emphasis on multifactor and multispecies studies in global change biology, our ability to forecast outcomes at higher levels of organization remains low. Much of our failure lies in a poor mechanistic understanding of nonlinear responses, a lack of specificity regarding the levels of organization at which interactions can arise, and an incomplete appreciation for linkages across these levels. To move forward, we need to fully embrace interactions. Mechanistic studies on physiological processes and individual performance in response to OA must be complemented by work on population and community dynamics. We must also increase our understanding of how linkages and feedback among multiple environmental stressors and levels of organization can generate nonlinear responses to OA. This will not be a simple undertaking, but advances are of the utmost importance as we attempt to mitigate the effects of ongoing global change. © 2017 The Authors.

Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality.

PubMed

Luo, Yong; Chen, Han Y H

2013-01-01

Understanding climate change-associated tree mortality is central to linking climate change impacts and forest structure and function. However, whether temporal increases in tree mortality are attributed to climate change or stand developmental processes remains uncertain. Furthermore, interpreting the climate change-associated tree mortality estimated from old forests for regional forests rests on an un-tested assumption that the effects of climate change are the same for young and old forests. Here we disentangle the effects of climate change and stand developmental processes on tree mortality. We show that both climate change and forest development processes influence temporal mortality increases, climate change-associated increases are significantly higher in young than old forests, and higher increases in younger forests are a result of their higher sensitivity to regional warming and drought. We anticipate our analysis to be a starting point for more comprehensive examinations of how forest ecosystems might respond to climate change.

Opinions and knowledge about climate change science in high school students.

PubMed

Harker-Schuch, Inez; Bugge-Henriksen, Christian

2013-10-01

This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage of correct answers was still below 60 % indicating an urgent need for improving climate change science education.

Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

Bullying among Adolescents in North Cyprus and Turkey: Testing a Multifactor Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayraktar, Fatih

2012-01-01

Peer bullying has been studied since the 1970s. Therefore, a vast literature has accumulated about the various predictors of bullying. However, to date there has been no study which has combined individual-, peer-, parental-, teacher-, and school-related predictors of bullying within a model. In this sense, the main aim of this study was to test a…

Electronic Health Records: Applying Diffusion of Innovation Theory to the Relationship between Multifactor Authentication and EHR Adoption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lockett, Daeron C.

2014-01-01

Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems are increasingly becoming accepted as future direction of medical record management systems. Programs such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act have provided incentives to hospitals that adopt EHR systems. In spite of these incentives, the perception of EHR adoption is that is has not achieved the…

Cross-Cultural Comparisons of University Students' Science Learning Self-Efficacy: Structural Relationships among Factors within Science Learning Self-Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ya-Ling; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2018-01-01

Science learning self-efficacy could be regarded as a multi-factor belief which comprises different aspects such as cognitive skills, practical work, and everyday application. However, few studies have investigated the relationships among these factors that compose science learning self-efficacy. Also, culture may play an important role in…

The Four-Factor Model of Depressive Symptoms in Dementia Caregivers: A Structural Equation Model of Ethnic Differences

PubMed Central

Roth, David L.; Ackerman, Michelle L.; Okonkwo, Ozioma C.; Burgio, Louis D.

2008-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that 4 latent constructs (depressed affect, well-being, interpersonal problems, somatic symptoms) underlie the item responses on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) Scale. This instrument has been widely used in dementia caregiving research, but the fit of this multifactor model and the explanatory contributions of multifactor models have not been sufficiently examined for caregiving samples. The authors subjected CES-D data (N = 1,183) from the initial Resources for Enhancing Alzheimer’s Caregiver Health Study to confirmatory factor analysis methods and found that the 4-factor model provided excellent fit to the observed data. Invariance analyses suggested only minimal item-loading differences across race subgroups and supported the validity of race comparisons on the latent factors. Significant race differences were found on 3 of the 4 latent factors both before and after controlling for demographic covariates. African Americans reported less depressed affect and better well-being than White caregivers, who reported better well-being and fewer interpersonal problems than Hispanic caregivers. These findings clarify and extend previous studies of race differences in depression among diverse samples of dementia caregivers. PMID:18808246

[Risk factors in the living environment of early spontaneous abortion pregnant women].

PubMed

Liu, Xin-yan; Bian, Xu-ming; Han, Jing-xiu; Cao, Zhao-jin; Fan, Guang-sheng; Zhang, Chao; Zhang, Wen-li; Zhang, Shu-zhen; Sun, Xiao-guang

2007-10-01

To study the relationship between early spontaneous abortion and living environment, and explore the risk factors of spontaneous abortion. We conducted analysis based on the interview of 200 spontaneous abortion cases and the matched control (age +/- 2 years) by using multifactor Logistic regression analysis. The proportions of watching TV > or =10 hours/week, operating computer > or =45 hours/week, using copycat, microwave oven and mobile phone, electromagnetism equipment near the dwell or work place, e. g. switch room < or =50 m and launching tower < or =500 m in the cases are significantly higher than those in the controls in single factor analysis (all P < 0.05). After adjusted the effect of other risk factors by multifactor analysis, using microwave oven and mobile phone, contacting abnormal smell of fitment material > or =3 months, having emotional stress during the first term of pregnancy and spontaneous abortion history were significantly associated with risk of spontaneous abortion. The odds ratios of these risk factors were 2.23 and 4.63, respectively. Using microwave oven and mobile phone, contacting abnormal smell of fitment material > or =3 months, having emotional stress during the first term of pregnancy, and spontaneous abortion history are risk factors of early spontaneous abortion.

Interactions between MAOA and SYP polymorphisms were associated with symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Chinese Han subjects.

PubMed

Gao, Qian; Liu, Lu; Li, Hai-Mei; Tang, Yi-Lang; Wu, Zhao-Min; Chen, Yun; Wang, Yu-Feng; Qian, Qiu-Jin

2015-01-01

As candidate genes of attention--deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), monoamine oxidase A (MAOA), and synaptophysin (SYP) are both on the X chromosome, and have been suggested to be associated with the predominantly inattentive subtype (ADHD-I). The present study is to investigate the potential gene-gene interaction (G × G) between rs5905859 of MAOA and rs5906754 of SYP for ADHD in Chinese Han subjects. For family-based association study, 177 female trios were included. For case-control study, 1,462 probands and 807 normal controls were recruited. The ADHD Rating Scale-IV (ADHD-RS-IV) was used to evaluate ADHD symptoms. Pedigree-based generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (PGMDR) for female ADHD trios indicated significant gene interaction effect of rs5905859 and rs5906754. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) indicated potential gene-gene interplay on ADHD RS-IV scores in female ADHD-I. No associations were observed in male subjects in case-control analysis. In conclusion, our findings suggested that the interaction of MAOA and SYP may be involved in the genetic mechanism of ADHD-I subtype and predict ADHD symptoms. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of multiple environmental factors for swine building assessment and control.

PubMed

Xie, Qiuju; Ni, Ji-Qin; Su, Zhongbin

2017-10-15

In confined swine buildings, temperature, humidity, and air quality are all important for animal health and productivity. However, the current swine building environmental control is only based on temperature; and evaluation and control methods based on multiple environmental factors are needed. In this paper, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) theory was adopted for multi-factor assessment of environmental quality in two commercial swine buildings using real measurement data. An assessment index system and membership functions were established; and predetermined weights were given using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with knowledge of experts. The results show that multi-factors such as temperature, humidity, and concentrations of ammonia (NH 3 ), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) can be successfully integrated in FCE for swine building environment assessment. The FCE method has a high correlation coefficient of 0.737 compared with the method of single-factor evaluation (SFE). The FCE method can significantly increase the sensitivity and perform an effective and integrative assessment. It can be used as part of environmental controlling and warning systems for swine building environment management to improve swine production and welfare. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Sulfate, Chloride, and Bicarbonate on Iron Stability in a PVC-U Drinking Pipe

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiaying; Tao, Tao; Yan, Hexiang

2017-01-01

In order to describe iron stability in plastic pipes and to ensure the drinking water security, the influence factors and rules for iron adsorption and release were studied, dependent on the Unplasticized poly (vinyl chloride) (PVC-U) drinking pipes employed in this research. In this paper, sulfate, chloride, and bicarbonate, as well as synthesized models, were chosen to investigate the iron stability on the inner wall of PVC-U drinking pipes. The existence of the three kinds of anions could significantly affect the process of iron adsorption, and a positive association was found between the level of anion concentration and the adsorption rate. However, the scaling formed on the inner surface of the pipes would be released into the water under certain conditions. The Larson Index (LI), used for a synthetic consideration of anion effects on iron stability, was selected to investigate the iron release under multi-factor conditions. Moreover, a well fitted linear model was established to gain a better understanding of iron release under multi-factor conditions. The simulation results demonstrated that the linear model was better fitted than the LI model for the prediction of iron release. PMID:28629192

Social representations of climate change in Swedish lay focus groups: local or distant, gradual or catastrophic?

PubMed

Wibeck, Victoria

2014-02-01

This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.

Medicare program; prospective payment system and consolidated billing for skilled nursing facilities for FY 2012. Final rule.

PubMed

2011-08-08

This final rule updates the payment rates used under the prospective payment system for skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) for fiscal year 2012. In addition, it recalibrates the case-mix indexes so that they more accurately reflect parity in expenditures between RUG-IV and the previous case-mix classification system. It also includes a discussion of a Non-Therapy Ancillary component currently under development within CMS. In addition, this final rule discusses the impact of certain provisions of the Affordable Care Act, and reduces the SNF market basket percentage by the multi-factor productivity adjustment. This rule also implements certain changes relating to the payment of group therapy services and implements new resident assessment policies. Finally, this rule announces that the proposed provisions regarding the ownership disclosure requirements set forth in section 6101 of the Affordable Care Act will be finalized at a later date.

Dynamic multifactor clustering of financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Gordon J.

2014-02-01

We investigate the tendency for financial instruments to form clusters when there are multiple factors influencing the correlation structure. Specifically, we consider a stock portfolio which contains companies from different industrial sectors, located in several different countries. Both sector membership and geography combine to create a complex clustering structure where companies seem to first be divided based on sector, with geographical subclusters emerging within each industrial sector. We argue that standard techniques for detecting overlapping clusters and communities are not able to capture this type of structure and show how robust regression techniques can instead be used to remove the influence of both sector and geography from the correlation matrix separately. Our analysis reveals that prior to the 2008 financial crisis, companies did not tend to form clusters based on geography. This changed immediately following the crisis, with geography becoming a more important determinant of clustering structure.

The anti-corrosion behavior under multi-factor impingement of Hastelloy C22 coating prepared by multilayer laser cladding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Bai, Shu-Lin

2018-04-01

Hastelloy C22 coating was prepared on substrate of Q235 steel by high power multilayer laser cladding. The microstructure, hardness and anti-corrosion properties of coating were investigated. The corrosion tests in 3.5% NaCl solution were carried out with variation of impingement angle and velocity, and vibration frequency of sample. The microstructure of coating changes from equiaxed grain at the top surface to dendrites oriented at an angle of 60° to the substrate inside the coating. The corrosion rate of coating increases with the increase of impingement angle and velocity, and vibrant frequency of sample. Corrosion mechanisms relate to repassivation and depassivation of coating according to electrochemical measurements. Above results show that multilayer laser cladding can endow Hastelloy C22 coating with fine microstructures, high hardness and good anti-corrosion performances.

Climate change and forest diseases

Treesearch

R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

2011-01-01

As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Climate change and skin disease.

PubMed

Lundgren, Ashley D

2018-04-01

Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

Mandate for the Nursing Profession to Address Climate Change Through Nursing Education.

PubMed

Leffers, Jeanne; Levy, Ruth McDermott; Nicholas, Patrice K; Sweeney, Casey F

2017-11-01

The adverse health effects from climate change demand action from the nursing profession. This article examines the calls to action, the status of climate change in nursing education, and challenges and recommendations for nursing education related to climate change and human health. Discussion paper. The integration of climate change into nursing education is essential so that knowledge, skills, and insights critical for clinical practice in our climate-changing world are incorporated in curricula, practice, research, and policy. Our Ecological Planetary Health Model offers a framework for nursing to integrate relevant climate change education into nursing curricula and professional nursing education. Nursing education can offer a leadership role to address the mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies for climate change. An ecological framework is valuable for nursing education regarding climate change through its consideration of political, cultural, economic, and environmental interrelationships on human health and the health of the planet. Knowledge of climate change is important for integration into basic and advanced nursing education, as well as professional education for nurses to address adverse health impacts, climate change responses policy, and advocacy roles. For current and future nurses to provide care within a climate-changing environment, nursing education has a mandate to integrate knowledge about climate change issues across all levels of nursing education. Competence in nursing practice follows from knowledge and skill acquisition gained from integration of climate change content into nursing education. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2015-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewart, Jean Marie

Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual modelmore » of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).« less

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

PubMed Central

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenbath, K. L.

2011-12-01

Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

Leadership style and organisational commitment among nursing staff in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Al-Yami, Mansour; Galdas, Paul; Watson, Roger

2018-03-23

To examine how nurse managers' leadership styles, and nurses' organisational commitment in Saudi Arabia relate. Effective leadership is influential in staff retention; however, recruiting and maintaining nurses is an increasing problem in Saudi Arabia. Using a survey design, the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire and the Organisational Commitment Questionnaire were distributed to a sample of 219 nurses and nurse managers from two hospitals in Saudi Arabia. Transformational leadership was the most dominant leadership style. After controlling for the influence of manager/staff status, nationality and hospitals, transformational leadership was the strongest contributor to organisational commitment. Perceptions of both transformational and transactional leadership styles, increased with age for nurse managers and nursing staff. Introducing the Full Range of Leadership model to the Saudi nursing workforce could help to prepare Saudi nurses for positions as nurse managers and leaders. The study provides insight into the type of leadership that is best suited to the dynamic and changing health care system in Saudi Arabia. It is possible that transformational leaders could influence and induce positive changes in nursing. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Nursing Management Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

2012-04-01

Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific.

Human activities and its Responses to Glacier Melt Water Over Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hai; Zhou, Shenbei; Bai, Minghao

2017-04-01

Tarim River Basin lies in the south area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the north-west area of China. It is the longest inland river of China. Being far away from ocean and embraced by high mountains, Tarim River Basin is the typical arid region in the world. The intensity of human activities increased rapidly in Tarim River Basin since 1980's and water resources lacking is the major issue restricting the development of social economy. The glacier melt water plays an important role for the regional social and economic development, and it accounts for 40% of mountain-pass runoff. It is a fragile mutual-dependent relationship between local sustainable development and runoff. Under the background of global change glacier melt water process has also changed especially in the arid and semi-arid region. Due to climate change, glacier in Tarim River Basin has melted in an observed way since 1980s, together with increasing trend of annual rainfall and virgin flow in mountain basins. Correspondingly, human activity gets more frequent since 1970s, resulting into the obvious fragile mutual-dependent relationship between basin runoff and water use amount. Through an analysis of meteorological, hydrological and geographical observation data from 1985 to 2015, this thesis make a multi-factor variance analysis of population, cultivation area, industrial development and runoff in upstream and mid-stream of Tarim River under changing conditions. Furthermore, the regulation function of natural factors and water demand management factors on relationship between runoff and water using amount are discussed, including temperature, rainfall, and evaporation, water conservation technology and soil-water exploitation administrative institutions. It concludes that: first, increase in glacier runoff, rainfall amount, and virgin flow haven't notably relieved ecological issue in Tarim River Basin, and even has promoted water use behaviour in different flowing areas and noticeably reduced the influence on water demand management. Second, water demand management factors positively relate to ecological improvement in Tarim River Basin. Third, after a further prediction on glacier melt with fuzzy neural network, it finds that the weaker adjustment influence of glacier runoff would put Tarim River Basin into a much weaker mutual-dependent relationship. The research believes that if short-term activity of society has wrongly adapted to runoff increase from faster glacier melt, it would put social development and ecological recovery of Tarim River Basin into a higher vulnerable way. Key words: Tarim River Basin, Changing Condition, Glacier Melt, mutual-dependent vulnerability

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

PubMed

Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-02-01

Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

2008-01-01

The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

Effects of Climate Change, Urban Development, and Threatened and Endangered Species Management on Army Training Capabilities: Firing Ranges

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

Climate Assessment for Army Enterprise Planning Effects of Climate Change , Urban Development, and... Climate Assessment for Army Enterprise Planning ERDC/CERL TR-16-29 January 2016 Effects of Climate Change , Urban Development, and Threatened and...due to climate change factors. The effects of climate change on DoD in- stallations is increasing in significance and has the potential to impact

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

[Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Shen, Wei Shou; Liu, Hai Yue

2016-12-01

According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.

Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

PubMed

Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

PubMed Central

Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

Climate Cloud Height

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-11-27

article title:  Is Climate Changing Cloud Heights? Too Soon to Say Climate change may eventually change global cloud heights, but scientists need ... whether that's happening already. For details see: Is Climate Changing Cloud Heights? Too Soon to Say . Climate ...

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Public Inaccuracy in Meta-perceptions of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swim, J.; Fraser, J.

2012-12-01

Public perceptions of climate change and meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientist's perceptions of climate change were assessed to benchmark the National Network for Climate Change Interpretation's impacts. Meta-perceptions are important to examine because they can have implications for willingness to take action to address climate change. For instance, recent research suggests a tendency to misperceive that there is disagreement among climate scientists is predictive of lack of support for climate change policies. Underestimating public concern about climate change could also be problematic: it could lead individuals to withdraw from personal efforts to reduce impact and engage others in discussions about climate change. Presented results will demonstrate that respondents in a national survey underestimated the percent of the public who were very concerned, concerned or cautious about climate change and overestimated the extent others were disengaged, doubted, or non-believers. They underestimated the percent of the public who likely believed that humans caused climate change and overestimate the percent that believed climate change was not happening nor human induced. Finally, they underestimated the percent of the public that believed climate change threatened ocean health. The results also explore sources of misperceptions. First, correlates with TV viewing habits suggest that inaccuracy is a result of too little attention to network news, with one exception: Greater attention to FOX among doubters reduced accuracy. Second, adding to other evidence that basic cognitive heuristics (such as availability heuristic) influence perceptions of climate change, we show that that false consensus effects account for meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientists beliefs. The false consensus effect, in combination with underestimating concern among the public, results in those most concerned about climate change and those who believe it to be human caused to be more accurate in their meta-perceptions than their disbelieving counterparts. Yet, even this group underestimates the public's concern about climate change and the presence of the false consensus effect suggests that greater accuracy is not a result of greater knowledge about other's beliefs but rather a result of personal cognitive or motivational biases counteracting a general trend toward underestimating the general public's concern. We conclude that there is need to inform the public about wide-spread agreement that human caused climate change and its impacts on oceans is believed by the majority of the public and to increase the public's confidence in climate scientist agreement about the existence, causes, and impacts of climate change.; Perceptions and metaperceptions of concern about climate change

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

PubMed Central

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes. PMID:24836442

Climate Change Schools Project...

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinzey, Krista

2010-01-01

This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

78 FR 12807 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group III Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-25

... on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Programme...-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts, and...

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

2012-01-01

This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Climate change and sustainable development: realizing the opportunity.

PubMed

Robinson, John; Bradley, Mike; Busby, Peter; Connor, Denis; Murray, Anne; Sampson, Bruce; Soper, Wayne

2006-02-01

Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions.

Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2013-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to practicalize Climate Change education.

Climate change; Confronting the global experiment

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

2006-01-01

Earth’s natural climate system is characterized by continually changing climates, with climate regimes that oscillate quasi-cyclically at multiple and nested scales from annual to multi-millennial, and commonly change abruptly. Under naturally changing climates, plant species track changes at all scales in individualistic manner, with plant communities...

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.

PubMed

Nicholas, Patrice K; Breakey, Suellen

2017-11-01

Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Discussion paper. A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role in education, practice, research, and policy-making efforts to address climate change. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

A Model for Pre-Service Teachers' Climate Change Awareness and Willingness to Act for Pro-Climate Change Friendly Behavior: Adaptation of Awareness to Climate Change Questionnaire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dal, Burçkin; Alper, Umut; Özdem-Yilmaz, Yasemin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu

2015-01-01

Public awareness of the negative effects of climate change is vital since it leads to collective action for prevention and adaptation. However, investigations on to what extent people are aware of the climate change issue are rare in the literature. The present study reported the adaptation process of awareness to climate change questionnaire into…

A roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiadi, R.

2018-03-01

This paper outlines a roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation built from our practical understanding of the evidence and effects of climate change and the preparation of climate change adaptation strategies and plans. This roadmap aims to drive research in achieving fruitful knowledge and solution-based achievable recommendations in adapting to climate change in urban areas with effective and systematic manner. This paper underscores the importance of the interplay between local government initiatives and a national government for effective adaptation to climate change and takes into account the policy process and politics. This paper argues that effective urban climate change adaptation has a contribution to build urban resilience and helps the achievement of national government goals and targets in climate change adaptation.

Links between media communication and local perceptions of climate change in an indigenous society

PubMed Central

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Méndez-López, María Elena; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; McBride, Marissa F.; Pyhälä, Aili; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Reyes-García, Victoria

2015-01-01

Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane’, an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached. Specifically, we conducted a Randomized Evaluation with a sample of 424 household heads in 12 villages to test to what degree local accounts of climate change are influenced by externally influenced awareness. We randomly assigned villages to a treatment and control group, conducted workshops on climate change with villages in the treatment group, and evaluated the effects of information dissemination on individual climate change perceptions. Results of this work suggest that providing climate change information through participatory workshops does not noticeably influence individual perceptions of climate change. Such findings stress the challenges involved in translating between local and scientific framings of climate change, and gives cause for concern about how to integrate indigenous peoples and local knowledge with global climate change policy debates. PMID:26166919

Proximity to coast is linked to climate change belief.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L; Evans, Laurel; Sibley, Chris G; Ries, Jan; Cunningham, Andrew

2014-01-01

Psychologists have examined the many psychological barriers to both climate change belief and concern. One barrier is the belief that climate change is too uncertain, and likely to happen in distant places and times, to people unlike oneself. Related to this perceived psychological distance of climate change, studies have shown that direct experience of the effects of climate change increases climate change concern. The present study examined the relationship between physical proximity to the coastline and climate change belief, as proximity may be related to experiencing or anticipating the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise. We show, in a national probability sample of 5,815 New Zealanders, that people living in closer proximity to the shoreline expressed greater belief that climate change is real and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions. This proximity effect held when adjusting for height above sea level and regional poverty. The model also included individual differences in respondents' sex, age, education, political orientation, and wealth. The results indicate that physical place plays a role in the psychological acceptance of climate change, perhaps because the effects of climate change become more concrete and local.

Links between media communication and local perceptions of climate change in an indigenous society.

PubMed

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Méndez-López, María Elena; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; McBride, Marissa F; Pyhälä, Aili; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Reyes-García, Victoria

2015-07-01

Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane', an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached. Specifically, we conducted a Randomized Evaluation with a sample of 424 household heads in 12 villages to test to what degree local accounts of climate change are influenced by externally influenced awareness. We randomly assigned villages to a treatment and control group, conducted workshops on climate change with villages in the treatment group, and evaluated the effects of information dissemination on individual climate change perceptions. Results of this work suggest that providing climate change information through participatory workshops does not noticeably influence individual perceptions of climate change. Such findings stress the challenges involved in translating between local and scientific framings of climate change, and gives cause for concern about how to integrate indigenous peoples and local knowledge with global climate change policy debates.

Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

2018-02-08

Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health.

PubMed

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-12-09

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change's health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities.

Significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in the Olifants River basin: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkhonjera, German K.; Dinka, Megersa O.

2017-11-01

This paper considers the extent and usefulness of reviewing existing literature on the significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources with emphasis on examples from the Olifants River basin. Here, the existing literature were extensively reviewed, with discussions centred mainly on the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and challenges in modelling climate change impacts on groundwater resources. Since in the hydrological cycle, the hydrological components such as evaporation, temperature, precipitation, and groundwater, are the major drivers of the present and future climate, a detailed discussion is done on the impact of climate change on these hydrological components to determine to what extent the hydrological cycle has already been affected as a result of climate change. The uncertainties, constraints and limitations in climate change research have also been reviewed. In addition to the research gaps discussed here, the emphasis on the need of extensive climate change research on the continent, especially as climate change impacts on groundwater, is discussed. Overall, the importance of conducting further research in climate change, understanding the significance of the impact of climate change on water resources such as groundwater, and taking actions to effectively meet the adaptation needs of the people, emerge as an important theme in this review.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H

2017-10-16

There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over- and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change. © Crown copyright 2017.

Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

2012-01-01

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

PubMed

Asplund, Therese

2016-07-01

While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

Agricultural Producer Perceptions of Climate Change and Climate Education Needs for the Central Great Plains

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hibbs, Amber Campbell; Kahl, Daniel; PytlikZillig, Lisa; Champion, Ben; Abdel-Monem, Tarik; Steffensmeier, Timothy; Rice, Charles W.; Hubbard, Kenneth

2014-01-01

The Central Great Plains Climate Education Partnership conducted focus groups throughout Kansas to gain a better understanding of farmer perceptions and attitudes towards climate change education. Results indicate concern about climatic changes, even if producers are unsure that "human caused climate change" is occurring. Participants…

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

PubMed

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

2017-07-01

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

2017-08-01

Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PubMed

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Bonnie; Lynch, Abigail; Bunnell, David; Chu, Cindy; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Arimi, Kayode S

2014-05-01

Undesirable impacts of climate change have been a common occurrence that has made fish farmers in developing countries adopt some climate-change adaptation strategies. However, little is known about determinants of climate-change adaptation strategies used by these fish farmers. This study, therefore, articulates novelties on adaptation to climate change, as well ascertains determinants of adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe, Lagos State, Nigeria. Climate change adaptation strategies mostly used by fish farmers include frequent seeking for early warning information about climate change (76.7%) and avoidance of areas susceptible to flooding (60.0%). Climate-change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were significantly influenced by access to early warning information (β = 7.21), knowledge of farmers about climate change adaptation strategies (β = 8.86), access to capital (β = 28.25), and participation in workshop and conferences (β = 37.19) but were reduced by number of fish stocking (β = -2.06). The adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were autonomous and mostly determined by the access to credit facilities and information. Development policy should focus on carbon capture and storage technology in order to reduce adverse impacts of climate change, as well as making early warning information on climate change available to fish farmers. These will enhance adaptation to climate change. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

The Correlation between Leadership Style and Leader Power

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-22

Article 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 1 February 2015-31 October 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Correlation between Leadership Style and Leader Power...Transformational and Transactional leadership style and leader power. Leadership style was measured by the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ...between the factors representing Leadership Style and Leader Power. The CFA results are contrary to developer’s theories of both scales, but are

The Development of a Tactical-Level Full Range Leadership Measurement Instrument

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

full range leadership theory has become established as the predominant and most widely researched theory on leadership . The most commonly used survey...instrument to assess full range leadership theory is the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, originally developed by Bass in 1985. Although much...existing literature to develop a new full range leadership theory measurement instrument that effectively targets low- to mid-level supervisors, or

Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, M.; Han, D.

2012-04-01

Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global environment change, formation mechanism and prediction theory of major climate and weather disasters in China, technologies of efficient use of clean energy, energy conservation and improvement of energy efficiency, development and utilisation technology of renewable energy and new energy. The EU recognises that developing countries, such as China and India, need to strengthen their economies through industrialisation. However this needs to be achieved at the same time as protecting the environment and sustainable use of energy. The EU has committed itself to assisting developing countries to achieve their goals in four priority areas: 1) raising the policy profile of climate change; 2) support for adaption to climate change; 3) support for mitigation of climate change; and 4) capacity development. This comparative study is part of the EU funded SPRING project which seeks to understand and assess Chinese and European competencies, with the aim of facilitating greater cooperation in future climate and environment research.

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

77 FR 59238 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group I Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary: The United States Global... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. The United Nations..., and socio-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential...

Climate Change Education: Goals, Audiences, and Strategies--A Workshop Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forest, Sherrie; Feder, Michael A.

2011-01-01

The global scientific and policy community now unequivocally accepts that human activities cause global climate change. Although information on climate change is readily available, the nation still seems unprepared or unwilling to respond effectively to climate change, due partly to a general lack of public understanding of climate change issues…

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data. PMID:24454550

Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

PubMed

Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

2015-11-01

Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science. © The Author(s) 2014.

Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2012-01-01

Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

The Future is Now: Reducing Psychological Distance to Increase Public Engagement with Climate Change.

PubMed

Jones, Charlotte; Hine, Donald W; Marks, Anthony D G

2017-02-01

Many people perceive climate change as psychologically distant-a set of uncertain events that might occur far in the future, impacting distant places and affecting people dissimilar to themselves. In this study, we employed construal level theory to investigate whether a climate change communication intervention could increase public engagement by reducing the psychological distance of climate change. Australian residents (N = 333) were randomly assigned to one of two treatment conditions: one framed to increase psychological distance to climate change (distal frame), and the other framed to reduce psychological distance (proximal frame). Participants then completed measures of psychological distance of climate change impacts, climate change concern, and intentions to engage in mitigation behavior. Principal components analysis indicated that psychological distance to climate change was best conceptualized as a multidimensional construct consisting of four components: geographic, temporal, social, and uncertainty. Path analysis revealed the effect of the treatment frame on climate change concern and intentions was fully mediated by psychological distance dimensions related to uncertainty and social distance. Our results suggest that climate communications framed to reduce psychological distance represent a promising strategy for increasing public engagement with climate change. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Perceptions and adaptation strategies of herders in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia to climate change].

PubMed

Han, Ying; Hou, Xiang-yang

2011-04-01

Desert steppe is very vulnerable to climate change. The herders caring for their livestock in such a natural environment have to face the challenges of rapid climate change. In this paper, a household-level questionnaire was conducted in the Suniteyou District of Inner Mongolia, China, aimed to analyze the herders' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change, extreme climate events in particular. In this Steppe where precipitation is rare and meteorological disasters are frequent, drought is the main extreme climate event with the broadest affecting area, the highest affecting degree, and the greatest frequency. The sensitivity of the herders to drought is far higher than that to other extreme climate events, and also, the perceptions to drought induce the herders having deep perceptions to the extreme climate events such as strong wing, dust storm, and heavy snow. Relative to the perceptions to long-term climate change, the perceptions to short-term climate change are more deep and precise. The herders can estimate the long-term climate change trend according to their perceptions to the latest 10 years climate change. They attribute the poor livestock health and the reduced forage yield greatly to climate change. Yet, the herders are inexperienced in implementing efficient adaptation strategies. Generally, their adaptation measures are quite simplex and rather passive.

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-02-10

unrelated to climate change per se. This report does not address the underlying question of climate change itself. Rather, it identifies the array of...climate-relevant human health research and discusses the interconnections. Approximately $57 million each year since FY2005 supports climate change research...infectious diseases. Three conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change : the infirm, the elderly, and the poor

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health

PubMed Central

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-01-01

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change’s health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities. PMID:26690194

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G.; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P.; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Guerra Hernández, Juan; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A.; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-03-01

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

PubMed Central

Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-01-01

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures. PMID:28855959

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

PubMed

Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João Hn; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-03-16

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2015-11-01

Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

Psychological research and global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

2015-07-01

Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

The neurobiology of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-02-01

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

The neurobiology of climate change.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-01-06

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

Farmers and Climate Change: A Cross-National Comparison of Beliefs and Risk Perceptions in High-Income Countries.

PubMed

Prokopy, Linda S; Arbuckle, J G; Barnes, Andrew P; Haden, V R; Hogan, Anthony; Niles, Meredith T; Tyndall, John

2015-08-01

Climate change has serious implications for the agricultural industry-both in terms of the need to adapt to a changing climate and to modify practices to mitigate for the impacts of climate change. In high-income countries where farming tends to be very intensive and large scale, it is important to understand farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change in order to develop appropriate policies and communication strategies. Looking across six study sites-Scotland, Midwestern United States, California, Australia, and two locations in New Zealand-this paper finds that over half of farmers in each location believe that climate change is occurring. However, there is a wide range of beliefs regarding the anthropogenic nature of climate change; only in Australia do a majority of farmers believe that climate change is anthropogenic. In all locations, a majority of farmers believe that climate change is not a threat to local agriculture. The different policy contexts and existing impacts from climate change are discussed as possible reasons for the variation in beliefs. This study compared varying surveys from the different locations and concludes that survey research on farmers and climate change in diverse locations should strive to include common questions to facilitate comparisons.

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

PubMed

Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

2014-08-01

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

Climate Change

MedlinePlus

... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

Comprehension of climate change and environmental attitudes across the lifespan.

PubMed

Degen, C; Kettner, S E; Fischer, H; Lohse, J; Funke, J; Schwieren, C; Goeschl, T; Schröder, J

2014-08-01

Given the coincidence of the demographic change and climate change in the upcoming decades the aging voter gains increasing importance in climate change mitigation and adaptation processes. It is generally assumed that information status and comprehension of complex processes underlying climate change are prerequisites for adopting pro-environmental attitudes and taking pro-environmental actions. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated in how far (1) environmental knowledge and comprehension of feedback processes underlying climate change and (2) pro-environmental attitudes change as a function of age. Our sample consisted of 92 participants aged 25-75 years (mean age 49.4 years, SD 17.0). Age was negatively related to comprehension of system structures inherent to climate change, but positively associated with level of fear of consequences and anxiousness towards climate change. No significant relations were found between environmental knowledge and pro-environmental attitude. These results indicate that, albeit understanding of relevant structures of the climate system is less present in older age, age is not a limiting factor for being engaged in the complex dilemma of climate change. Results bear implications for the communication of climate change and pro-environmental actions in aging societies.

The Mathematical Formatting of Climate Change: Critical Mathematics Education and Post-Normal Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barwell, Richard

2013-01-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st Century. Mathematics is involved at every level of understanding climate change, including the description, prediction and communication of climate change. As a highly complex issue, climate change is an example of "post-normal" science -- it is urgent, complex and involves a…

Adaptation: Planning for climate change and its effects on federal lands

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David L. Peterson; Michael J. Furniss

2012-01-01

National forest managers are charged with tackling the effects of climate change on the natural resources under their care. The Forest Service National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change and the Climate Change Performance Scorecard require managers to make significant progress in addressing climate change by 2015. To help land managers meet this challenge,...

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to Prairie Potholes and Grasslands

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Climate changes in the Prairie Potholes and Grasslands bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperature and changing precipitation patterns. Because the region is relatively dry with a strong seasonal climate, it is sensitive to climatic changes and vulnerable to changes in climatic regime. For example, model simulations show that regional...

Geospatial Hydrochemical and Microbiological Implications on the Occurrence of Crude Oil Biodegradation and Methanogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelton, J.; McIntosh, J. C.; Warwick, P.; McCray, J. E.

2014-12-01

Technologies that serve as a bridge between renewable energy and fossil fuels are needed to meet growing energy demands and to mitigate climate change. Many reservoirs contain difficult to produce residual and/or heavily biodegraded (i.e., geochemically altered) crude oil, which remains a relatively untapped resource. Production of this residual crude oil via unconventional methods, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), has offset some of the decline in conventional oil production. EOR is not efficient enough to recover all of the original oil in place, and some methods are not effective for very heavy crude oils. Stimulation of in-situ microorganisms to convert the residual crude oil to natural gas (i.e., microbial methane) is one promising strategy to "extract" residual and /or heavy crude oil. Although the hydrogeochemical conditions necessary for the occurrence of both crude oil biodegradation and microbial methanogenesis in various reservoirs have been studied, there are still gaps in research. Many hydrogeochemical factors have been researched individually (not as part of a multifactor or lithologically similar system) and little work has assessed the microbiological limitations of both processes. Our goal is to determine the hydrogeochemical and microbiological conditions required for maximum crude oil biodegradation and microbial methanogenesis across a lithologically similar unit. Produced water, oil, gas, and microbial biomass samples were collected from wells completed in the Paleocene—Eocene Wilcox Group in central Louisiana. Initial results indicate potential relationships between the amount of crude oil biodegradation, indicators of microbial methanogenesis, and aqueous geochemistry. For example, produced waters with the lowest salinity had the highest crude oil biodegradation, and wells exhibiting the most microbial methane generation produce waters with hydrogeochemical conditions most fit for methanogenesis to occur. In sampled wells displaying similar hydrogeochemical conditions (e.g., similar temperatures), indicators of methanogenesis, such as δ13C dissolved inorganic carbon values, are more pronounced in wells displaying oils that are more biodegraded, suggesting methanogenesis may be accelerated with greater amounts of crude oil biodegradation.

Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A

2005-11-29

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Tribal engagement strategy of the South Central Climate Science Center, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, William J.; Taylor, April; Winton, Kimberly T.

2014-01-01

The South Central Climate Science Center was established by the U.S. Department of the Interior in 2012 to increase understanding of climate change and coordinate an effective response to climate-change effects on Native American tribes and natural and cultural resources that the Department manages. The eight regional Climate Science Centers of the U.S. Department of the Interior work closely with natural-resource management agencies, university researchers, and others such as tribes and private landowners on climate-change issues. The relatively large number of Native Americans in the south central United States and their special knowledge of changing ecosystems make working with tribes and tribal members on climate-change issues particularly important in this part of the Nation. This circular describes priorities of the South Central Climate Science Center and provides information about resources available from Climate Science Centers and partner agencies regarding climate change. The circular also describes how this Climate Science Center, tribes and tribal members, and others can collaborate to minimize potential harmful effects of climate change on human society and our surrounding ecosystems.

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such as flooding and heavy rainfall than in ';hot' events such as heatwaves, (b) perceptions of these ';wet' weather events are more strongly associated with climate-change beliefs than were extremely ';hot' weather events, and (c) personal experiences with the negative consequences of specific extreme weather events are associated with stronger climate-change beliefs. Hence, which specific weather events people interpret as evidence of climate change may depend on their personal perceptions and experiences - which may not involve the temperature increases that are commonly the focus of climate-change communications. Overall, these findings suggest that climate experts should consider focusing their public communications on extreme weather events that are relevant to their intended audience. We will discuss strategies for designing and evaluating communications about climate change and adaptation.

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change.

PubMed

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-02-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners , annoyed deniers , ambivalent optimists , convinced wait-and-seers . Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Health Implications of Climate Change: a Review of the Literature About the Perception of the Public and Health Professionals.

PubMed

Hathaway, Julia; Maibach, Edward W

2018-03-01

Through a systematic search of English language peer-reviewed studies, we assess how health professionals and the public, worldwide, perceive the health implications of climate change. Among health professionals, perception that climate change is harming health appears to be high, although self-assessed knowledge is low, and perceived need to learn more is high. Among the public, few North Americans can list any health impacts of climate change, or who is at risk, but appear to view climate change as harmful to health. Among vulnerable publics in Asia and Africa, awareness of increasing health harms due to specific changing climatic conditions is high. Americans across the political and climate change opinion spectra appear receptive to information about the health aspects of climate change, although findings are mixed. Health professionals feel the need to learn more, and the public appears open to learning more, about the health consequences of climate change.

Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

2010-06-01

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

Social Climate Science: A New Vista for Psychological Science.

PubMed

Pearson, Adam R; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Romero-Canyas, Rainer

2016-09-01

The recent Paris Agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions, adopted by 195 nations at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, signaled unprecedented commitment by world leaders to address the human social aspects of climate change. Indeed, climate change increasingly is recognized by scientists and policymakers as a social issue requiring social solutions. However, whereas psychological research on intrapersonal and some group-level processes (e.g., political polarization of climate beliefs) has flourished, research into other social processes-such as an understanding of how nonpartisan social identities, cultural ideologies, and group hierarchies shape public engagement on climate change-has received substantially less attention. In this article, we take stock of current psychological approaches to the study of climate change to explore what is "social" about climate change from the perspective of psychology. Drawing from current interdisciplinary perspectives and emerging empirical findings within psychology, we identify four distinct features of climate change and three sets of psychological processes evoked by these features that are fundamentally social and shape both individual and group responses to climate change. Finally, we consider how a more nuanced understanding of the social underpinnings of climate change can stimulate new questions and advance theory within psychology. © The Author(s) 2016.

Physiological basis of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Bunnell, David B.; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cooke, Steven J.; Eliason, Erika J.; Rogers, Mark W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems and affecting fish populations and communities. Underpinning changes in fish distribution and assemblage-level responses to climate change are individual-level physiological constraints. In this review, we synthesize the mechanistic effects of climate change on neuroendocrine, cardiorespiratory, immune, osmoregulatory, and reproductive systems of freshwater and diadromous fishes. Observed climate change effects on physiological systems are varied and numerous, including exceedance of critical thermal tolerances, decreased cardiorespiratory performance, compromised immune function, and altered patterns of individual reproductive investment. However, effects vary widely among and within species because of species, population, and even sex-specific differences in sensitivity and resilience and because of habitat-specific variation in the magnitude of climate-related environmental change. Research on the interactive effects of climate change with other environmental stressors across a broader range of fish diversity is needed to further our understanding of climate change effects on fish physiology.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Improving Undergraduate Climate Change Literacy through Writing: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small Griswold, Jennifer D.

2017-01-01

A climate-literate population, capable of making informed decisions related to climate change, is of critical importance as society faces ever-increasing global temperatures and changes in the climate system. This project evaluates the effectiveness of a novel instructional approach that incorporates climate change science into a first-year…

How Do We Communicate Both the Knowns and Unknowns of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.; Selin, C.; Garfinkle, R.

2011-12-01

The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research will only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty about these aspects of climate change and their impacts presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. The Science Museum of Minnesota (SMM) in partnership with the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, and the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA proposes to create a major national touring science exhibition that focuses both on informing the public on what is known about climate change and on how to plan for the future in light of the uncertainties identified above. The scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding where, when and by how much climate will change. Yet the civic space for such conversations is circumscribed. Various interest groups are actively engaged in sowing doubt and confusion in the public's mind about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, some in the scientific community find the mention of uncertainty in association with climate change as an anathema because of concerns about potentially eroding public understanding and acceptance of the reality of anthropogenic climate change. SMM and its partners are interested in the perspectives of the scientific community with respect to the proposed exhibition. This session will engage participants in a dialog around a number of questions: How should we discuss the uncertainties of climate change while still communicating the scientific consensus on climate change? How do we gain the confidence of the scientific community to get the balance right between the reality of climate change and the uncertainty of how it will manifest itself? How might this project help reopen the presently stifled U.S. civic conversation about climate change? SMM and its partners seek your insights into these and other critical climate change education questions.

Making the climate part of the human world: Why addressing beliefs and biases is necessary part of effective climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2009-12-01

Efforts to raise public awareness and understanding of the social, cultural and economic consequences of climate change often encounter skepticism. The primary causes of this skepticism, whether in the form of a mild rejection of proposed policy responses or an outright rejection of the basic scientific findings, is often cited to be the poor framing of issues by the scientific community, the quality of science education or public science literacy, disinformation campaigns by representatives of the coal and gas industry, individual resistance to behavioral change, and the hyperactive nature of the modern information culture. However, the root cause may be that the weather and climate, and by association climate change, is viewed as independent of the sphere of human influence in ancient and modern societies. In this presentation, I will outline how long-standing human beliefs in the separation between the earth and the sky and the modern framing of climate change as an “environmental” issue are limiting efforts to education the public about the causes, effects and possible response to climate change. First, sociological research in the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) finds strong evidence that beliefs in divine control of the weather and climate limit public acceptance of human-induced climate change. Second, media analysis and polling data from North America supports the role of belief and provides further evidence that climate change is viewed as a threat to an “other” labeled “the environment”, rather than a threat to people or society. The consequences of these mental models of the climate can be an outright reject of scientific theory related to climate change, a milder distrust of climate change predictions, a lack of urgency about mitigation, and an underestimate of the effort required to adapt to climate change. In order to be effective, public education about climate change needs to directly address the two, critical beliefs held by the majority of the audience. Proposed solutions include re-casting climate change as a broad societal concern, thus rejecting characterization of climate change as “environmental issue”, and clearly expressing to the audience the historical reasons why climate change may be hard to “believe”

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity.

PubMed

Garcia, Raquel A; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2014-05-02

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

PubMed

Chrétien, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.

PubMed

Boggs, Carol L

2016-10-01

Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Through a Poverty Lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

2017-12-01

Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.

Climate change through a poverty lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie

2017-04-01

Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.

Dynamic models of farmers adaptation to climate change (case of rice farmers in Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

2018-03-01

Farming activities are generally very sensitive to climate change variations. Global climate change will result in changes of patterns and distribution of rainfall. The impact of changing patterns and distribution of rainfall is the occurrence of early season shifts and periods of planting. Therefore, farmers need to adapt to the occurrence of climate change to avoid the decrease productivity on the farm land. This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change adaptation that farmers practiced on the farming productivity. The analysis is conducted dynamically using the Powersim 2.5. The result of analysis shows that the use of Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management technology can increase the rice productivity of certain area unity. Both technologies are the alternatives for farmers to adapt to climate change. Both farmers who adapt to climate change and do not adapt to climate change, experience an increase in rice production, time after time. However, farmers who adapt to climate change, increase their production faster than farmers who do not adapt to climate change. The use of the Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management strategy together as a farmers’ adaptation strategy is able to increase production compared to non-adaptive farmers.

Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

PubMed Central

Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina

2016-01-01

Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Climate Change Science: The Literacy of Geography Teachers in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anyanwu, Raymond; Le Grange, Lesley; Beets, Peter

2015-01-01

One of the universal responses to tackling global climate change is teaching climate change concepts at all levels of formal education. This response requires, among other things, teachers who are fully literate about climate change science, so that they can explain the concepts underlying the causes, impacts and solutions of climate change as…

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-06

climate change , stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the...instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat...of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

2016-01-01

Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

A Review on Climate Change in Weather Stations of Guilan Province Using Mann-Kendal Methodand GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, Jalal

2016-07-01

Climate has always been changing during the life time of the earth, and has appeared in the form of ice age, hurricanes, severe and sudden temperature changes, precipitation and other climatic elements, and has dramatically influenced the environment, and in some cases has caused severe changes and even destructions. Some of the most important aspects of climate changes can be found in precipitation types of different regions in the world and especially Guilan, which is influenced by drastic land conversions and greenhouse gases. Also, agriculture division, industrial activities and unnecessary land conversions are thought to have a huge influence on climate change. Climate change is a result of abnormalcies of metorologyl parameters. Generally, the element of precipitation is somehow included in most theories about climate change. The present study aims to reveal precipitation abnormalcies in Guilan which lead to climate change, and possible deviations of precipitation parameter based on annual, seasonal and monthly series have been evaluated. The Mann-Kendal test has been used to reveal likely deviations leading to climate change. The trend of precipitation changes in long-term has been identifiedusing this method. Also, the beginning and end of these changes have been studied in five stations as representatives of all the thirteen weather stations. Then,the areas which have experienced climate change have been identified using the GIS software along with the severity of the changes with an emphasis on drought. These results can be used in planning and identifying the effects of these changes on the environment. Keywords: Climate Change, Guilan, Mann-Kendal, GIS

Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

PubMed

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

The GCRP Climate Health Assessment: From Scientific Literature to Climate Health Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, A. R.; Balbus, J. M.

2016-12-01

As noted by the new report from the US GCRP, the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, climate change is a significant threat to the health of the American people. Despite a growing awareness of the significance of climate change in general among Americans, however, recognition of the health significance of climate change is lacking. Not only are the general public and many climate scientists relatively uninformed about the myriad health implications of climate change; health professionals, including physicians and nurses, are in need of enhanced climate literacy. This presentation will provide an overview of the new GCRP Climate Health Assessment, introducing the audience to the systems thinking that underlies the assessment of health impacts, and reviewing frameworks that tie climate and earth systems phenomena to human vulnerability and health. The impacts on health through changes in temperature, precipitation, severity of weather extremes and climate variability, and alteration of ecosystems and phenology will be explored. The process of developing the assessment report will be discussed in the context of raising climate and health literacy within the federal government.

Changing Minds about the Changing Climate: a Longitudinal Study of the Impacts of a Climate Change Curriculum on Undergraduate Student Knowledge and Attitudes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.

2016-12-01

In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-03

integrating climate change risks into decision priorities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS adaptation, baseline sensitivity, climate change, climate exposure...four bases we found that integrating climate change risks into the current decision matrix, by linking projected risks to current or past impacts...data and decision tools and methods. Bases have some capacity to integrate climate-related information, but they have limited resources to undertake

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.

2009-04-01

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

PubMed

Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

2016-10-01

Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.

2009-01-01

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

2009-04-01

Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolin, B.

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

PubMed

Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

PubMed Central

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. PMID:23950785

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2018-01-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

PubMed

Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V; Feldman, Richard E; King, David I

2017-04-01

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

2013-04-01

The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory data analysis the approaches on climate time series, trend analysis and extreme events analysis are explained. Tools to describe relations within the data sets and significance tests further corroborate this. Within the weekly exercises that have to be prepared at home, the students work with self-selected climate data sets and apply the learned methods. The presentation and discussion of intermediate results by the students is as much part of the exercises as the illustration of possible methodological procedures by the teacher using exemplary data sets. The total time expenditure of the course is 270 hours with 90 attendance hours. The remainder consists of individual studies, e.g., preparation of discussions and presentations, statistical data analysis, and scientific writing. Different forms of examination are applied including written or oral examination, scientific report, presentation and portfolio work.

Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

PubMed

Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

2010-06-01

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

'I don't get this climate stuff!' Making sense of climate change among the corporate middle class in Lagos.

PubMed

Asiyanbi, Adeniyi P

2015-11-01

Public engagement continues to be central to wider efforts to address climate change. This study contributes to public engagement debates by investigating engagement with climate change among an often overlooked group, the corporate middle class in Africa's second largest megacity, Lagos. Combining survey and interviews, I focus analysis on three aspects: awareness, knowledge and concern; role of scientific and social frames in shaping general attitude; and spatial attribution of causes and consequences. The study reveals a universal awareness and high concern about climate change among the respondents, although understanding and perceptions of climate change are significantly socially framed. Social situatedness, more than scientific facts, is the most important definer of overall engagement with climate change. This study thus underscores a nuanced constructionist stance, showing how corporate professionals' 'ways of knowing' climate change is underpinned by a certain co-production between scientific and socio-experiential frames. I highlight implications for research and public engagement with climate change. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus.

PubMed

Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L

2016-04-22

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.

Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus

PubMed Central

Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict. PMID:27110806

Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Chicago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Coffee, J.; McGraw, J.; Parzen, J.

2008-12-01

Under Mayor Richard M. Daley's leadership, the City of Chicago initiated the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) to better understand local implications of global climate change in both higher and lower emissions scenarios, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and implement programs to build future climate change resilience. The City approached this work not only as a way to make Chicago more adaptable in the future, but also to improve Chicago's quality of life today. The Chicago Climate Action Plan adopted stresses the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago and preparing for climate changes that may be unavoidable. Building off of the City's significant environmental programs and projects, and based on our analyses of the climate effects and impacts that improved the scientific understanding of future climate change impacts on Chicago, the City then developed a set of climate change adaptation strategies, resulting in the City of Chicago Climate Change Adaptation Summary. This document includes prioritization of climate change adaptations based on relative risk as well as framework strategies for those tactics categorized as "must do/early action." In early 2008, The Mayor's Office asked five Commissioners from its Green Steering Committee to chair adaptation work groups including: extreme heat; extreme precipitation; buildings, infrastructure and equipment; ecosystems; and leadership, planning and communications. Working with staff from relevant departments, sister agencies and other stakeholders, these work groups developed 39 basic adaptation work plans, including plans for enhancing the City's existing projects and programs that relate to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation work will be on-going in City Departments under the Mayor's Office leadership. The City intends to continually monitor and improve its response to climate change, resulting in an improved quality of life for Chicago residents.

A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C. J.

2015-12-01

A climate change MOOC is a way to reach a global audience of many thousands of students. What was it like to teach climate change to an invisible class over the Internet, and how well did it work? The need to educate many people about climate change seems obvious. Climate change is one of the most important existential issues of our time. Sound science can inform wise policy, and coping successfully with climate change is surely an urgent global challenge that requires scientific input and a scientifically informed public. Today many scientists have opportunities to communicate what science has learned about climate and climate change. Yet being a scientific expert on these subjects does not necessarily mean having the skills to communicate effectively to a broad audience. Like learning to ski or to drive a car skillfully, learning to communicate climate science well takes time and effort. The MOOC format has its own special challenges. Effective communication should always resemble a conversation rather than a monologue, but a conversation can be difficult when the teacher will never see or hear from the great majority of students in the class. In addition, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing widespread confusion about climate change. As a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. One can expect that some of the students taking the MOOC will have been influenced by this sort of erroneous information. Thus, one appealing topic to include in a MOOC on climate change is to give useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation. This talk will describe one climate scientist's first-person participation in teaching a climate change MOOC.

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

77 FR 60717 - Establishment of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-04

... seeking nominations for the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science (Committee... of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center and the DOI Climate... Partnership Coordinator, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12201...

Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure : Gulf Coast study, phase 2 : task 2 : climate variability and change in Mobile, Alabama.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of : climate effects at local scales remains scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems : imposed by changes in climate are not yet well kn...

Soil erosion from winter wheat cropland under climate change in central Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of climate change on sediment yield from a winter wheat field were investigated to determine what conservation practices would be required under climate change to maintain future sediment yield at no more than today’s rates. GCM climate projections for climate change scenario RCP8.5 in West-...

Fight Swack, Adapt to Climate Change or How to Use Humor to Engage the Public in Climate Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, R.; Elinich, K.; Johnson, R.; Fink, J.; Crawford, J.

2014-12-01

We are carefully considering how a humor-based campaign can help us communicate important climate change messages. Using pilot campaign strategies, we have engaged local residents in focus groups and interviews to understand how effective the approach can be. Growing educational research suggests learning about climate change can lead to feelings of depression, fear and inaction. Climate change seems too big of a task to take on. But with sweaty back (or "swack" as it's known in some circles), there's a public enemy that can be defeated. As only one piece of an innovative model for informal climate change education, the Climate and Urban Systems Partnership repositions the war on climate change by declaring a war on swack instead. This way, we can talk about climate change in a way it has never been talked about before that will certainly get people's attention. It also answers the common question of, "Yeah, but how does it affect me?" We're educating about responses to climate change because heat waves, floods, and excessive back sweat all kinda suck a lot.

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change☆

PubMed Central

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-01-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level. PMID:27064520

Global climate change attitudes and perceptions among south American zoo visitors.

PubMed

Luebke, Jerry F; Clayton, Susan; Kelly, Lisa-Anne DeGregoria; Grajal, Alejandro

2015-01-01

There is a substantial gap between the scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change and the human response to this evidence. Perceptions of and responses to climate change can differ among regions of the world, as well as within countries. Therefore, information about the public's attitudes and perceptions related to climate change is essential to the development of relevant educational resources. In the present study, zoo visitors in four South American countries responded to a questionnaire regarding their attitudes and perceptions toward global climate change. Results indicated that most respondents are already highly concerned about global climate change and are interested in greater engagement in pro-environmental behaviors. Visitors also perceive various obstacles to engagement in climate change mitigation behaviors. We discuss the results of our study in terms of addressing visitors' climate change attitudes and perceptions within the social and emotional context of zoo settings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.

PubMed

Joshi, H D; Dhimal, B; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2011-04-01

Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal.

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Recent Challenges Facing US Government Climate Science Access and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carter, J. M.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Climate scientists have long faced politicization of their work, especially those working within the US federal government. However, political interference in federal government climate change science has escalated in the current political era with efforts by political actors to undermine and disrupt infrastructure supporting climate science. This has included funding changes, decreased access to climate science information on federal agency websites, restrictions on media access to scientific experts within the government, and rolling back of science-based policies designed to incorporate and respond to climate science findings. What are the impacts of such changes for both the climate science community and the broader public? What can be done to ensure that access to and application of climate change-related research to policy decisions continues? We will summarize and analyze the state of climate change research and application in the US government. The impacts of political interference in climate change science as well as opportunities the scientific community has to support climate science in the US government, will be discussed.

Correlations between Climate Change and the Modern European Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumińska, Anna

2017-10-01

The aim of the study was to analyze the links between climate change and the way modern cities are structured and responded to climate change. How do these changes affect building materials and technologies, or does climate change affect the type of technology and materials used? The most important results are the effects of analysing selected examples of a modern European building, the use of materials and technology, the adaptation of buildings to the changing climate. Selected examples of contemporary architecture from Germany, Italy and Denmark, Norway and Sweden. There are also examples in photographic documentation. The most important criteria affecting the objects are elements that shape the changing climate, as well as existing legal and technical requirements. The main conclusion was that modern urban space is adapted to the changing climate. Unprecedented climatic phenomena in this area: intense and sudden rain, snow, floods, strong winds, abundant sunshine, high temperature changes, greenhouse effect of the city - “island heat”, atmospheric pollution. Building materials and technologies contribute to the optimal conservation of natural resources, buildings are shaped in such a way as to ensure safety, resilience and environmental protection. However, there is still a need for continuous monitoring of climate change, criteria affecting the design and construction of urban and central facilities. Key words: energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change, contemporary architecture.

Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

2017-08-01

This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

2011-01-01

Climate change will likely have dramatic impacts on forest health because many forest trees could become maladapted to climate. Furthermore, climate change will have additional impacts on forest health through changes in the distribution and severity of forest disease. Methods are needed to predict the influence of climate change on forest disease so that appropriate...

U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations...with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor... Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the

Determinants of climate change awareness level in upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya.

PubMed

Ajuang, Chadwick O; Abuom, Paul O; Bosire, Esna K; Dida, Gabriel O; Anyona, Douglas N

2016-01-01

Improving the understanding of climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in climate change research. While the African continent is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change, research on climate knowledge and awareness is lacking. Kenya is already grappling with the impacts of climate change, which are projected to increase in a non-linear and non-predictable manner. This study sought to determine climate change awareness levels among households residing in Upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya using common climate change markers viz heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and temperature. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in which 384 household heads were selected as respondents from 11 sub-locations; all located within Upper Nyakach Division. A questionnaire was used to collect data. Most (90.9 %) respondents had observed changes in the overall climate. Awareness level of climate change varied significantly across the 11 sub-locations. To further gain insight unto which variables were the most significant determinant of climate change awareness in upper Nyakach division, Kisumu county, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson error distribution was built. The model indicated that sex of the household head, education level and age significantly influenced respondents' awareness to climate change markers. Most (87 %) households reported rising temperatures over the past 20 years. Over half (55.2 %) the respondents had observed declining rains, with significant differences being observed across age groups. Up to 75 % of the respondents reported increased droughts frequency over the last 20 years, with significant differences observed across gender. Most (86.7 %) respondents reported having observed changes in water sources with significant differences reported across age groups. The respondents reported an increased prevalence of malaria with significant differences being observed among the education levels and households' main livelihoods. The general population of the Upper Nyakach Divison is aware of changing global climate. However, more effort is required in mitigating climate change as per the local settings. Awareness campaign aimed at increasing knowledge of climate change markers among community members is recommended.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats). © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Where the Rubber Hits the Road: The Politics and Science of Climate Change in Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M.

2004-12-01

Scientific understanding of the magnitude and rate of global and regional climate change is being actively communicated to Capitol Hill, however this information is being framed within the political debate that has brought climate change policy in the U.S. to a practical standstill. Efforts by scientists to communicate to Congress advances in the understanding of climate change have been obscured by policy-makers, lobbyists and some scientists themselves, into two polarized camps: those that who claim that current climate change is insignificant and/or of non-anthropogenic origin, and those who predict irreversible climate change in the near future and advocate a precautionary approach to anthropogenic contributions. As a science policy advisor to a Member of Congress active in the climate policy debate over the past year, I have observed firsthand most of the scientific information on climate change presented to Congress being partitioned into these camps. The political debate surrounding climate change policy has centered on the policymakers' understanding of scientific uncertainty. Communication by researchers of the definition of risk and uncertainty in climate science, in the language and framework of the legislative debate, is of utmost importance in order for policymakers to effectively understand and utilize science in the decision-making process. A comparison with the recent white paper on climate change policy developed by the UK Science and Technology council and currently adopted by UK policymakers demonstrates the importance of a general public understanding of the existing magnitude of climate change, uncertainties in the rate of future climate variability and its associated economic and social costs. Communication of research results on climate change has been most effective in the policy debate when framed within the context of economic or security risks in the short term. Other effective methods include communicating local and regional climate scenarios and associated probabilities to individual policy-makers, as is currently being utilized to promote sponsorship of the Climate Stewardship Act in Congress.

Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

2014-01-01

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers’ adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs. PMID:25225382

Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.

PubMed

Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

2014-09-23

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

PubMed

Sakellari, Maria

2015-10-01

Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, J. S.; Perry-Hill, Rebecca; Huber, Matthew; Prokopy, Linda S.

2015-09-01

The existence of anthropogenic climate change remains a public controversy despite the consensus among climate scientists. The controversy may be fed by the existence of scientists from other disciplines publicly casting doubt on the validity of climate science. The extent to which non-climate scientists are skeptical of climate science has not been studied via direct survey. Here we report on a survey of biophysical scientists across disciplines at universities in the Big 10 Conference. Most respondents (93.6%) believe that mean temperatures have risen and most (91.9%) believe in an anthropogenic contribution to rising temperatures. Respondents strongly believe that climate science is credible (mean credibility score 6.67/7). Those who disagree about climate change disagree over basic facts (e.g., the effects of CO2 on climate) and have different cultural and political values. These results suggest that scientists who are climate change skeptics are outliers and that the majority of scientists surveyed believe in anthropogenic climate change and that climate science is credible and mature.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

2010-01-01

Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

Climate Signals: An On-Line Digital Platform for Mapping Climate Change Impacts in Real Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Climate Signals is an on-line digital platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. The CS platform specifies and details the chains of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to to engage and serve the general public, news media, and policy-makers, particularly in real-time during extreme climate events. Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, a mapping engine, and a gallery of climate change monitors offering real-time data. For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom attribution "tree" that illustrates the connections to climate change. In addition, links to key contextual resources are aggregated and curated for each event. All event records are fully annotated with detailed source citations and corresponding hyper links. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change in real-time is detailed here. This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Launched in May 2016, the operation of this platform offers lessons for public engagement in climate change impacts.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region's attitude towards climate change science, policy, and the stances taken by other regions on climate change. The professor will provide a model of integrative research using the U.S. as a focus, and on discussion days, prompt a sort of United Nations discussion on each of these topics with the intention of having the students look at climate change from a different point of view that contrasts their current U.S.-centric view, as well as realize the interdependence of regions particularly in regards to climate change.

Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

2011-01-01

This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

Modern methods for the quality management of high-rate melt solidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliev, V. A.; Odinokov, S. A.; Serov, M. M.

2016-12-01

The quality management of high-rate melt solidification needs combined solution obtained by methods and approaches adapted to a certain situation. Technological audit is recommended to estimate the possibilities of the process. Statistical methods are proposed with the choice of key parameters. Numerical methods, which can be used to perform simulation under multifactor technological conditions, and an increase in the quality of decisions are of particular importance.

An Evaluation of the Relationship between Supervisory Techniques and Organizational Outcomes among the Supervisors in the Agricultural Extension Service in the Eastern Region Districts of Uganda. Summary of Research 81.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padde, Paul; And Others

A descriptive study examined the relationship between supervisory techniques and organizational outcomes among supervisors in the agricultural extension service in eight districts in eastern Uganda. Self-rating and rater forms of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire were sent to 220 extension agents, 8 field supervisors, and 8 deputy field…

Jackknife for Variance Analysis of Multifactor Experiments.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

variance-covariance matrix is generated y a subroutine named CORAN (UNIVAC, 1969). The jackknife variances are then punched on computer cards in the same...LEVEL OF: InMte CALL cORAN (oaILa.NSUR.NOAY.D,*OXflRRORR.PCOF.2K.1’)I WRITE IP97111 )1RRN.4 .1:NDAY) 0 a 3fill1UR I .’t UN 001f’..1uŔ:1 .w100710n

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2016-01-01

Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

PubMed

Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

2016-08-01

Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

The potential roles of science centers in climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.

2012-12-01

The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research may only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. Both scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding the timing, nature and severity of climate change. Thus the need is great for civic conversations regarding climate change adaptation. What roles might science centers play in helping their audiences and communities make decisions about climate change adaptation despite less-than-perfect knowledge? And how might informal and formal education work together on this task? This session will begin with a review of some initial efforts by selected science centers and their partners to engage their audiences in and help their communities grapple with climate change adaptation. It then will conclude with an audience discussion about potential future efforts by science centers both individually and in collaboration with formal education institutions to elevate public and policymaker awareness and appreciation of the need for climate change adaptation.

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

PubMed Central

Hof, Anouschka R.; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

2012-01-01

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. PMID:23285098

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.

PubMed

Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond

2018-05-24

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

Multifactor-Dimensionality Reduction Reveals High-Order Interactions among Estrogen-Metabolism Genes in Sporadic Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Hahn, Lance W.; Roodi, Nady; Bailey, L. Renee; Dupont, William D.; Parl, Fritz F.; Moore, Jason H.

2001-01-01

One of the greatest challenges facing human geneticists is the identification and characterization of susceptibility genes for common complex multifactorial human diseases. This challenge is partly due to the limitations of parametric-statistical methods for detection of gene effects that are dependent solely or partially on interactions with other genes and with environmental exposures. We introduce multifactor-dimensionality reduction (MDR) as a method for reducing the dimensionality of multilocus information, to improve the identification of polymorphism combinations associated with disease risk. The MDR method is nonparametric (i.e., no hypothesis about the value of a statistical parameter is made), is model-free (i.e., it assumes no particular inheritance model), and is directly applicable to case-control and discordant-sib-pair studies. Using simulated case-control data, we demonstrate that MDR has reasonable power to identify interactions among two or more loci in relatively small samples. When it was applied to a sporadic breast cancer case-control data set, in the absence of any statistically significant independent main effects, MDR identified a statistically significant high-order interaction among four polymorphisms from three different estrogen-metabolism genes. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a four-locus interaction associated with a common complex multifactorial disease. PMID:11404819

Multilevel Factorial Experiments for Developing Behavioral Interventions: Power, Sample Size, and Resource Considerations†

PubMed Central

Dziak, John J.; Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Collins, Linda M.

2012-01-01

Factorial experimental designs have many potential advantages for behavioral scientists. For example, such designs may be useful in building more potent interventions, by helping investigators to screen several candidate intervention components simultaneously and decide which are likely to offer greater benefit before evaluating the intervention as a whole. However, sample size and power considerations may challenge investigators attempting to apply such designs, especially when the population of interest is multilevel (e.g., when students are nested within schools, or employees within organizations). In this article we examine the feasibility of factorial experimental designs with multiple factors in a multilevel, clustered setting (i.e., of multilevel multifactor experiments). We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate how design elements such as the number of clusters, the number of lower-level units, and the intraclass correlation affect power. Our results suggest that multilevel, multifactor experiments are feasible for factor-screening purposes, because of the economical properties of complete and fractional factorial experimental designs. We also discuss resources for sample size planning and power estimation for multilevel factorial experiments. These results are discussed from a resource management perspective, in which the goal is to choose a design that maximizes the scientific benefit using the resources available for an investigation. PMID:22309956

Cardiovascular disease prevention and lifestyle interventions: effectiveness and efficacy.

PubMed

Haskell, William L

2003-01-01

Over the past half century scientific data support the strong relationship between the way a person or population lives and their risk for developing or dying from cardiovascular disease (CVD). While heredity can be a major factor for some people, their personal health habits and environmental/cultural exposure are more important factors. CVD is a multifactor process that is contributed to by a variety of biological and behavioral characteristics of the person including a number of well-established and emerging risk factors. Not smoking, being physically active, eating a heart healthy diet, staying reasonably lean, and avoiding major stress and depression are the major components of an effective CVD prevention program. For people at high risk of CVD, medications frequently need to be added to a healthy lifestyle to minimize their risk of a heart attack or stroke, particularly in persons with conditions such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, or hyperglycemia. Maintaining an effective CVD prevention program in technologically advanced societies cannot be achieved by many high-risk persons without effective and sustained support from a well-organized health care system. Nurse-provided or nurse-coordinated care management programs using an integrated or multifactor approach have been highly effective in reducing CVD morbidity and mortality of high-risk persons.

Multifactor leadership styles and new exposure to workplace bullying: a six-month prospective study

PubMed Central

TSUNO, Kanami; KAWAKAMI, Norito

2014-01-01

This study investigated the prospective association between supervisor leadership styles and workplace bullying. Altogether 404 civil servants from a local government in Japan completed baseline and follow-up surveys. The leadership variables and exposure to bullying were measured by Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire and Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised, respectively. The prevalence of workplace bullying was 14.8% at baseline and 15.1% at follow-up. Among respondents who did not experience bullying at baseline (n=216), those who worked under the supervisors as higher in passive laissez-faire leadership had a 4.3 times higher risk of new exposure to bullying. On the other hand, respondents whose supervisors with highly considerate of the individual had a 70% lower risk of new exposure to bullying. In the entire sample (n=317), passive laissez-faire leadership was significantly and positively associated, while charisma/inspiration, individual consideration, and contingent reward were negatively associated both after adjusting for demographic and occupational characteristics at baseline, life events during follow-up, and exposure to workplace bullying at baseline. Results indicated that passive laissez-faire and low individual consideration leadership style at baseline were strong predictors of new exposure to bullying and high individual consideration leadership of supervisors/managers could be a preventive factor against bullying. PMID:25382384

Multifactor leadership styles and new exposure to workplace bullying: a six-month prospective study.

PubMed

Tsuno, Kanami; Kawakami, Norito

2015-01-01

This study investigated the prospective association between supervisor leadership styles and workplace bullying. Altogether 404 civil servants from a local government in Japan completed baseline and follow-up surveys. The leadership variables and exposure to bullying were measured by Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire and Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised, respectively. The prevalence of workplace bullying was 14.8% at baseline and 15.1% at follow-up. Among respondents who did not experience bullying at baseline (n=216), those who worked under the supervisors as higher in passive laissez-faire leadership had a 4.3 times higher risk of new exposure to bullying. On the other hand, respondents whose supervisors with highly considerate of the individual had a 70% lower risk of new exposure to bullying. In the entire sample (n=317), passive laissez-faire leadership was significantly and positively associated, while charisma/inspiration, individual consideration, and contingent reward were negatively associated both after adjusting for demographic and occupational characteristics at baseline, life events during follow-up, and exposure to workplace bullying at baseline. Results indicated that passive laissez-faire and low individual consideration leadership style at baseline were strong predictors of new exposure to bullying and high individual consideration leadership of supervisors/managers could be a preventive factor against bullying.

Sensitivity Analysis of Mechanical Parameters of Different Rock Layers to the Stability of Coal Roadway in Soft Rock Strata

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zeng-hui; Wang, Wei-ming; Gao, Xin; Yan, Ji-xing

2013-01-01

According to the geological characteristics of Xinjiang Ili mine in western area of China, a physical model of interstratified strata composed of soft rock and hard coal seam was established. Selecting the tunnel position, deformation modulus, and strength parameters of each layer as influencing factors, the sensitivity coefficient of roadway deformation to each parameter was firstly analyzed based on a Mohr-Columb strain softening model and nonlinear elastic-plastic finite element analysis. Then the effect laws of influencing factors which showed high sensitivity were further discussed. Finally, a regression model for the relationship between roadway displacements and multifactors was obtained by equivalent linear regression under multiple factors. The results show that the roadway deformation is highly sensitive to the depth of coal seam under the floor which should be considered in the layout of coal roadway; deformation modulus and strength of coal seam and floor have a great influence on the global stability of tunnel; on the contrary, roadway deformation is not sensitive to the mechanical parameters of soft roof; roadway deformation under random combinations of multi-factors can be deduced by the regression model. These conclusions provide theoretical significance to the arrangement and stability maintenance of coal roadway. PMID:24459447

Application of an Instrumental and Computational Approach for Improving the Vibration Behavior of Structural Panels Using a Lightweight Multilayer Composite

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Alberto; García, Manuel; Sebastián, Miguel Angel; Camacho, Ana María

2014-01-01

This work presents a hybrid (experimental-computational) application for improving the vibration behavior of structural components using a lightweight multilayer composite. The vibration behavior of a flat steel plate has been improved by the gluing of a lightweight composite formed by a core of polyurethane foam and two paper mats placed on its faces. This composite enables the natural frequencies to be increased and the modal density of the plate to be reduced, moving about the natural frequencies of the plate out of excitation range, thereby improving the vibration behavior of the plate. A specific experimental model for measuring the Operating Deflection Shape (ODS) has been developed, which enables an evaluation of the goodness of the natural frequencies obtained with the computational model simulated by the finite element method (FEM). The model of composite + flat steel plate determined by FEM was used to conduct parametric study, and the most influential factors for 1st, 2nd and 3rd mode were identified using a multifactor analysis of variance (Multifactor-ANOVA). The presented results can be easily particularized for other cases, as it may be used in cycles of continuous improvement as well as in the product development at the material, piece, and complete-system levels. PMID:24618779

Computational simulation of probabilistic lifetime strength for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyce, Lola; Bast, Callie C.; Trimble, Greg A.

1992-01-01

This report presents the results of a fourth year effort of a research program, conducted for NASA-LeRC by the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic material strength degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subject to a number of effects or primitive variables. These primitive variables may include high temperature, fatigue or creep. In most cases, strength is reduced as a result of the action of a variable. This multifactor interaction strength degradation equation has been randomized and is included in the computer program, PROMISS. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the above-described constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with regression analysis of that data, thereby predicting values for the empirical material constants for each effect or primitive variable. This regression methodology is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Actual experimental materials data were obtained from industry and the open literature for materials typically for applications in aerospace propulsion system components. Material data for Inconel 718 has been analyzed using the developed methodology.

Computational simulation of probabilistic lifetime strength for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyce, Lola; Bast, Callie C.; Trimble, Greg A.

1992-01-01

The results of a fourth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) are presented. The research included on-going development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic material strength degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to a number of effects or primitive variables. These primitive variables may include high temperature, fatigue, or creep. In most cases, strength is reduced as a result of the action of a variable. This multifactor interaction strength degradation equation was randomized and is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the above-described constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with regression analysis of that data, thereby predicting values for the empirical material constants for each effect or primitive variable. This regression methodology is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Actual experimental materials data were obtained from industry and the open literature for materials typically for applications in aerospace propulsion system components. Material data for Inconel 718 was analyzed using the developed methodology.

Multilevel factorial experiments for developing behavioral interventions: power, sample size, and resource considerations.

PubMed

Dziak, John J; Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Collins, Linda M

2012-06-01

Factorial experimental designs have many potential advantages for behavioral scientists. For example, such designs may be useful in building more potent interventions by helping investigators to screen several candidate intervention components simultaneously and to decide which are likely to offer greater benefit before evaluating the intervention as a whole. However, sample size and power considerations may challenge investigators attempting to apply such designs, especially when the population of interest is multilevel (e.g., when students are nested within schools, or when employees are nested within organizations). In this article, we examine the feasibility of factorial experimental designs with multiple factors in a multilevel, clustered setting (i.e., of multilevel, multifactor experiments). We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate how design elements-such as the number of clusters, the number of lower-level units, and the intraclass correlation-affect power. Our results suggest that multilevel, multifactor experiments are feasible for factor-screening purposes because of the economical properties of complete and fractional factorial experimental designs. We also discuss resources for sample size planning and power estimation for multilevel factorial experiments. These results are discussed from a resource management perspective, in which the goal is to choose a design that maximizes the scientific benefit using the resources available for an investigation. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Can "Ozzie" the Ostrich Prepare the Public for Better Learning about Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. F.; Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Lockwood, L.

2016-02-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing societal issues today, and educators are struggling with how to inform people of all ages and backgrounds about the reality and relevance of climate change. ScienceToGo.org has designed 12 posters that were placed on the Boston subways over the course of 15 months. Surveys of T-riders suggest that Ozzie the Ostrich is highly recognizable, is non-threatening, and is connecting Boston with climate change impacts and solutions. We hypothesize that our advertising campaign not only raises awareness about climate change in Boston and engages the public in thinking and talking about climate change, but also prepares them for learning more about climate change in the future. By exposing students to the 12 posters, we think that fears associated with climate change are lessened, and that students are more willing to explore a variety of media (newspaper articles, internet postings, peer-reviewed journal articles, data, and graphs) compared to students that are not exposed to the posters. Students will complete an initial survey, be exposed (or not exposed) to Ozzie posters, asked to explore a variety of media related to climate change, then surveyed again. Finally, focus groups will be conducted to gain insights on how students interact about climate change with or without exposure to Ozzie. We are interested in learning if exposure to brief, engaging, and humorous advertising messages will change the way students learn about climate change. This presentation will present initial results of this study.

Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Schloss, Carrie A.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated. PMID:22586104

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

Eye tracking and climate change: How is climate literacy information processed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. C.; McNeal, K. S.

2011-12-01

The population of the Southeastern United States is perceived to be resistant to information regarding global climate change. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project was formed to provide a resource for climate science information. As part of this project, we are evaluating the way that education materials influence the interpretation of climate change related information. At Mississippi State University, a study is being conducted examining how individuals from the Southeastern United States process climate change information and whether or not the interaction with such information impacts the interpretation of subsequent climate change related information. By observing the patterns both before and after an educational intervention, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the climate change information on an individual's interpretation of related information. Participants in this study view figures describing various types of climate change related information (CO2 emissions, sea levels, etc.) while their eye movements are tracked to determine a baseline for the way that they process this type of graphical data. Specifically, we are examining time spent viewing and number of fixations on critical portions of the figures prior to exposure to an educational document on climate change. Following the baseline period, we provide participants with portions of a computerized version of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences that the participants read at their own pace while their eye movements are monitored. Participants are told that they will be given a test on the material after reading the resource. After reading the excerpt, participants are presented with a new set of climate change related figures to interpret (with eye tracking) along with a series of questions regarding information contained in the resource. We plan to evaluate changes that occur in the way that climate change related information is processed based on reading a commonly provided climate change resource. The expectation is that participants will process the figures differently following reading the pamphlet. In addition, we will evaluate which aspects of the resource tend to best correlate with the changes in figure processing.

Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

PubMed

Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

2015-08-01

Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Evolving Risk of Climate Change and National Security: People not Polar Bears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titley, D.

2014-12-01

This talk will provide a general overview of climate change and discuss why this is a national security issue. Climate change is about people, about water, and about change itself. Understanding the rate of climate change, relative to the abilities of both humans and ecosystems to adapt is critical. I will briefly describe the multiple, independent lines of evidence that the climate is changing, and that the primary cause of this change is a change in atmospheric composition caused by the burning of fossil fuels. I will cover the history of climate change as seen within the U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Navy, how this challenge is being addressed from budgetary, policy, and political angles, and what are the greatest challenges to national security that arise from climate change and in particular, the associated changes in the Arctic. I will conclude with an assessment of future challenges and opportunities regarding climate change, from science, policy, and political perspectives, and why we know enough to take significant action now, even if we don't know every detail about the future. In addition, this talk will address how to effectively talk about climate change through the use of analogies, plain, non-jargon English, and even a little humor.

Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

2014-12-01

To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

Attribution of maize yield increase in China to climate change and technological advancement between 1980 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Wu, Dingrong; Mu, Jia; Xu, Yanhong

2014-12-01

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from -41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm-2 yr-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm-2 yr-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of -9.0 kg hm-2 yr-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, andmore » we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.« less

The interplay between climate change, forests, and disturbances.

PubMed

Dale, V H; Joyce, L A; McNulty, S; Neilson, R P

2000-11-15

Climate change affects forests both directly and indirectly through disturbances. Disturbances are a natural and integral part of forest ecosystems, and climate change can alter these natural interactions. When disturbances exceed their natural range of variation, the change in forest structure and function may be extreme. Each disturbance affects forests differently. Some disturbances have tight interactions with the species and forest communities which can be disrupted by climate change. Impacts of disturbances and thus of climate change are seen over a board spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Future observations, research, and tool development are needed to further understand the interactions between climate change and forest disturbances.

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change. 1; Respective Influences of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Climate Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.

2005-01-01

We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.

78 FR 66817 - Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-06

...--Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change #0; #0; #0; Presidential Documents #0; #0; #0... the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change By the authority vested in me as President by the... of climate change by undertaking actions to enhance climate preparedness and resilience, it is hereby...

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

PubMed

Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

2016-09-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Investigating Climate Change Issues With Web-Based Geospatial Inquiry Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, C.; Bodzin, A. M.; Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Peffer, T.; Cirucci, L.

2011-12-01

In the Environmental Literacy and Inquiry middle school Climate Change curriculum we focus on essential climate literacy principles with an emphasis on weather and climate, Earth system energy balance, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and how human activities influence climate change (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/). It incorporates a related set of a framework and design principles to provide guidance for the development of the geospatial technology-integrated Earth and environmental science curriculum materials. Students use virtual globes, Web-based tools including an interactive carbon calculator and geologic timeline, and inquiry-based lab activities to investigate climate change topics. The curriculum includes educative curriculum materials that are designed to promote and support teachers' learning of important climate change content and issues, geospatial pedagogical content knowledge, and geographic spatial thinking. The curriculum includes baseline instructional guidance for teachers and provides implementation and adaptation guidance for teaching with diverse learners including low-level readers, English language learners and students with disabilities. In the curriculum, students use geospatial technology tools including Google Earth with embedded spatial data to investigate global temperature changes, areas affected by climate change, evidence of climate change, and the effects of sea level rise on the existing landscape. We conducted a designed-based research implementation study with urban middle school students. Findings showed that the use of the Climate Change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Agriculture: Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

PubMed

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Supporting Climate Literacy in the K12 Classroom by Identifying Educators' Perceived Barriers to and Gaps in Resources for Teaching Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tayne, K.

2015-12-01

As K12 teachers seek ways to provide meaningful learning opportunities for students to understand climate change, they often face barriers to teaching about climate and/or lack relevant resources on the topic. In an effort to better understand how to support K12 teachers in this role, a survey about "teaching climate change" was created and distributed. The results of the 2015 survey are presented, based on more than 200 teacher responses. Respondents included National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) members, 2015 STEM Teacher and Researcher (STAR) Fellows and science teachers from several U.S. school districts. The survey identifies teachers' perceived barriers to teaching climate change, for example difficulty integrating climate change concepts into specific core courses (i.e., biology), as well as desired classroom resources, such as climate change project-based learning (PBL) units that connect to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Survey results also indicate possible pathways for federal agencies, non-profits, universities and other organizations to have a more significant impact on climate literacy in the classroom. In response to the survey results, a comprehensive guide is being created to teach climate change in K12 classrooms, addressing barriers and providing resources for teachers. For example, in the survey, some teachers indicated that they lacked confidence in their content knowledge and understanding of climate change, so this guide provides web-based resources to help further an educator's understanding of climate change, as well as opportunities for relevant online and in-person professional development. In this quest for desired resources to teach climate change, gaps in accessible and available online resources are being identified. Information about these "gaps" may help organizations that strive to support climate literacy in the classroom better serve teachers.

Land degradation and climate change: building climate resilience in agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land degradation and climate change pose enormous risks to global food security. Land degradation increases the vulnerability of agroecological systems to climate change and reduces the effectiveness of adaptation options. Yet these interactions have largely been omitted from climate impact assessme...

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, Paul G.; Milfont, Taciano L.; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Bilewicz, Michał; Doron, Guy; Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B.; Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Guan, Yanjun; Johansson, Lars-Olof; Pasquali, Carlota; Corral-Verdugo, Victor; Aragones, Juan Ignacio; Utsugi, Akira; Demarque, Christophe; Otto, Siegmar; Park, Joonha; Soland, Martin; Steg, Linda; González, Roberto; Lebedeva, Nadezhda; Madsen, Ole Jacob; Wagner, Claire; Akotia, Charity S.; Kurz, Tim; Saiz, José L.; Schultz, P. Wesley; Einarsdóttir, Gró; Saviolidis, Nina M.

2016-02-01

Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.

Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

PubMed

Dodo, Mahamat K

2014-01-01

Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

PubMed Central

Nhamo, Godwell

2016-01-01

The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs), address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2000-01-01

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

2017-12-01

The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants; the case of Punjab province, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.

2014-10-01

Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the negatively affected countries from climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data of 450 households collected from three districts in three agro-ecological zones in Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examined how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness to climate change persists in the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, plantation of trees and changing fertilizer were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. Results from the binary logistic model revealed that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of tube-well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and extension all influence the farmers' choice of adaptation measures. Results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information; lack of money; resource constraint and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need of greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

Connecting Stakeholders and Climate Science: A Summary of Farmer, Rancher, and Forester Climate Data Needs and Climate Change Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.

2015-12-01

The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.

Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

2013-07-01

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior.

PubMed

Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse L; Tannenbaum, Melanie B

2017-03-01

Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem unimpactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness-belief that one's actions cannot affect climate change-can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change efficacy predicted both moralization of energy use and energy conservation intentions beyond individual belief in climate change. In Studies 2 and 3, participants read information about climate change that varied in efficacy message, that is, whether individual actions (e.g., using less water, turning down heat) make a difference in the environment. Participants who read that their behavior made no meaningful impact reported weaker moralization and intentions (Study 2), and reported more energy consumption 1 week later (Study 3). Moreover, effects on intentions and actions were mediated by changes in moralization. We discuss ways to improve climate change messages to foster environmental efficacy and moralization of personal energy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE PAGES

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Coming Climate Crisis? Perhaps, but Beware the Solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2010-01-01

Over the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness that climate changes in substantial ways, that human activities are having an impact on climate change, and that climate change can have major consequences for human societies. Unfortunately, along with this realization has come a strong polarization within the scientific community and outside of it regarding what if anything should be done to reduce negative human impacts and/or to attempt to control climate. This book places recent climate change in the context of the very long term history of change on planet Earth and warns that our understanding of climate change remains sufficiently incomplete that we should be extremely cautious about implementing proposed massive geoengineering schemes intended to alter future climate conditions. The book treats with respect the various viewpoints in the highly polarized discussions regarding climate change, following a basic assumption that the major scientists on each side of the issues have valuable points to bring to the table. The topic is too important to become endlessly mired in contentious polarization.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

Polarizing news? Representations of threat and efficacy in leading US newspapers' coverage of climate change.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol; Milosevic, Tijana

2017-05-01

This study examines non-editorial news coverage in leading US newspapers as a source of ideological differences on climate change. A quantitative content analysis compared how the threat of climate change and efficacy for actions to address it were represented in climate change coverage across The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today between 2006 and 2011. Results show that The Wall Street Journal was least likely to discuss the impacts of and threat posed by climate change and most likely to include negative efficacy information and use conflict and negative economic framing when discussing actions to address climate change. The inclusion of positive efficacy information was similar across newspapers. Also, across all newspapers, climate impacts and actions to address climate change were more likely to be discussed separately than together in the same article. Implications for public engagement and ideological polarization are discussed.

Building Public Will for Climate Change Solutions: Which Beliefs Are Most Helpful?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.; Lewandowsky, S.; Cook, J.

2016-12-01

At the COP21 meeting in December 2015, the nations of the world set an ambitious climate change goal - to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees (C), ideally limiting the warming to 1.5 degrees. Achieving this ambitious goal will require building and/or sustaining a high degree of political will in dozens or hundreds of nations, especially highly industrialized nations. One important means of building/sustaining political will is to build public will (i.e., public demand) in support of this goal. Over the past decade, there has been a considerable amount of empirical social science research on public engagement with climate change. In this presentation, we will briefly review the findings of some of this research to suggest that five key beliefs largely form the basis for public will to address climate change. Specifically, people who hold the following beliefs are more likely to support actions to limit climate change, and to personally be taking helpful actions themselves: (1) climate change is real; (2) climate change is human-caused; (3) there is expert consensus about human-caused climate change; (4) climate change is harmful to people; (5) actions can be taken to limit climate change. We will also briefly review what is known about how to successfully communicate these ideas in ways that minimize the societal polarization about climate change (what we call the "acceptance gap") that has developed between liberals and conservatives in several primarily English-speaking nations.

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

PubMed

Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

2009-07-01

There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

A Survey of Registered Dietitians’ Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Irana W.; Balsam, Alan L.; Goldman, Robert

2015-01-01

Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice. PMID:26217666

Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.

PubMed

Weems, Caitlin; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj

2017-04-01

Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.

Climate change-related migration and infectious disease.

PubMed

McMichael, Celia

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on both human migration and population health, including infectious disease. It will amplify and alter migration pathways, and will contribute to the changing ecology and transmission dynamics of infectious disease. However there has been limited consideration of the intersections between migration and health in the context of a changing climate. This article argues that climate-change related migration - in conjunction with other drivers of migration - will contribute to changing profiles of infectious disease. It considers infectious disease risks for different climate-related migration pathways, including: forced displacement, slow-onset migration particularly to urban-poor areas, planned resettlement, and labor migration associated with climate change adaptation initiatives. Migration can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but it is critical to better understand and respond to health impacts - including infectious diseases - for migrant populations and host communities.

Degradation of photovoltaic backsheet materials under multi-factor accelerated UV light exposures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinke, Addison G.; Gok, Abdulkerim; Ifeanyi, Silas I.; French, Roger H.; Bruckman, Laura S.

2017-08-01

Long term outdoor durability of photovoltaic (PV) module backsheets is critical to a module's power output over its lifetime. The use of uoropolymer-based backsheets or the addition of stabilizers to polyethylene-terephthalate (PET) and polyamide (PA) type backsheets can help extend their lifetime. This study presents the performance of 21 backsheets made of 8 different material combinations under ASTM G154 Cycle 4 accelerated light exposures. The backsheets were subjected to 4000 hours of high irradiance UVA light at a peak intensity of 1.55 W=m2 at 340 nm at 70°C with and without a condensing humidity cycle at 50°C. Backsheets were evaluated, with repeated measurements, using various evaluation techniques to identify and assess potential signs of degradation. These evaluations included the yellowness index (YI), CIE color space coordinates, and gloss at 20, 60, and 85°. The temporal evolution of the relative color change ΔE was statistically analyzed to develop a stress-response model which used the UVA light dose to predict color change. It was found that the PVF/PET/E backsheet performed the best while PET/PET/E and THV/PET/EVA backsheets performed the worst. Additionally, substantial variation in color change response, attributable to key manufacturing differences, was observed within a given material type.

Predictive models of poly(ethylene-terephthalate) film degradation under multi-factor accelerated weathering exposures

PubMed Central

Ngendahimana, David K.; Fagerholm, Cara L.; Sun, Jiayang; Bruckman, Laura S.

2017-01-01

Accelerated weathering exposures were performed on poly(ethylene-terephthalate) (PET) films. Longitudinal multi-level predictive models as a function of PET grades and exposure types were developed for the change in yellowness index (YI) and haze (%). Exposures with similar change in YI were modeled using a linear fixed-effects modeling approach. Due to the complex nature of haze formation, measurement uncertainty, and the differences in the samples’ responses, the change in haze (%) depended on individual samples’ responses and a linear mixed-effects modeling approach was used. When compared to fixed-effects models, the addition of random effects in the haze formation models significantly increased the variance explained. For both modeling approaches, diagnostic plots confirmed independence and homogeneity with normally distributed residual errors. Predictive R2 values for true prediction error and predictive power of the models demonstrated that the models were not subject to over-fitting. These models enable prediction under pre-defined exposure conditions for a given exposure time (or photo-dosage in case of UV light exposure). PET degradation under cyclic exposures combining UV light and condensing humidity is caused by photolytic and hydrolytic mechanisms causing yellowing and haze formation. Quantitative knowledge of these degradation pathways enable cross-correlation of these lab-based exposures with real-world conditions for service life prediction. PMID:28498875

Scanning electron microscopy and roughness study of dental composite degradation.

PubMed

Soares, Luís Eduardo Silva; Cortez, Louise Ribeiro; Zarur, Raquel de Oliveira; Martin, Airton Abrahão

2012-04-01

Our aim was to test the hypothesis that the use of mouthwashes, consumption of soft drinks, as well as the type of light curing unit (LCU), would change the surface roughness (Ra) and morphology of a nanofilled composite resin (Z350® 3M ESPE). Samples (80) were divided into eight groups: Halogen LCU, group 1, saliva (control); group 2, Pepsi Twist®; group 3, Listerine®; group 4, Colgate Plax®; LED LCU, group 5, saliva; group 6, Pepsi Twist®; group 7, Listerine®; group 8, Colgate Plax®. Ra values were measured at baseline, and after 7 and 14 days. One specimen of each group was prepared for scanning electron microscopy analysis after 14 days. The data were subjected to multifactor analysis of variance at a 95% confidence followed by Tukey's honestly significant difference post-hoc test. All the treatments resulted in morphological changes in composite resin surface, and the most significant change was in Pepsi Twist® groups. The samples of G6 had the greatest increase in Ra. The immersion of nanofilled resin in mouthwashes with alcohol and soft drink increases the surface roughness. Polymerization by halogen LCU (reduced light intensity) associated with alcohol contained mouthwash resulted in significant roughness on the composite.

Promoting Regionally-Based Climate Change Education through Collaborations with Formal and Informal Education Institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stylinski, C.; Griswold, M.

2012-12-01

Improving climate literacy is necessary to effectively respond to climate change impacts. However, climate change education efforts face significant hurdles both in the classroom and in out-of-school settings. These include addressing uncertainity and the complex mix of drivers and impacts that occur over large spatial and temporal scales. These efforts are further hampered by audiences who are disinterested and resisant to discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Bridging formal and informal education experiences focused on climate change offers a potentially powerful strategy to tackle these challenges. In this session, we will describe our NSF-funded Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project, which applies a comprehensive regional partnership among scientists, education researchers, K-12 and informal education practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve public and student understanding of and engagement in climate change issues and solutions. To better understand gaps and opportunities, we have conducted surveys and interviews with K-12, informal, and undergraduate educators and administrators. We found that climate change education aligns with most institutions' missions and efforts, that most educators do not face institutional barriers to climate change education, and that climate change is typically incorporated as part of a host of environmental issues. Despite this, climate change education is still quite limited with few institutions explicitly focusing on climate change in their programming. Additionally, there is little apparent communication among these institutions with regard to this issue. In response to these needs, we have focused the MADE-CLEAR project on creating and providing regionally-relevant resouces and professional development on climate change science, impacts and solutions for both formal and informal educators. Our approach is collaborative and includes strategies to promote networking within and among these two groups. For example, we will lead joint workshops where K-12 teachers can share their in-depth understanding of climate change concepts and links to education standards, while free-choice-learning practitioners can provide their expertise in engaging diverse audiences and supporting more learner-centered teaching. Our resources will further support a formal-informal bridge by helping both groups of educators make climate change relevant to their audiences with local examples of impacts and ways to mitigate or adapt to these impacts. Our project includes design-based research, and thus we will examine how our professional development is translated into practice at different types of institutions and the impact of our approach on enhancing formal-informal education collaborations focused on climate change education.

Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges

PubMed Central

A. Betts, Richard

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. PMID:16433093

An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.

2009-04-01

Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.

The species velocity of trees in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; de Lafontaine, G.; Heath, K.; Li, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has motivated interest in the paleo record to enhance our knowledge about past vegetation responses to climate change and help understand potential responses in the future. Additionally, polar regions currently experience the most rapid rates of climate change globally, prompting concern over changes in the ecological composition of high latitude ecosystems. Recent analyses have attempted to construct methods to estimate a species' ability to track climate change by computing climate velocity; a measure of the rate of climate displacement across a landscape which may indicate the speed an organism must migrate to keep pace with climate change. However, a challenge to using climate velocity in understanding range shifts is a lack of species-specificity in the velocity calculations: climate velocity does not actually use any species data in its analysis. To solve the shortcomings of climate velocity in estimating species displacement rates, we computed the "species velocity" of white spruce, green and grey alder populations across the state of Alaska from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today. Species velocity represents the rate and direction a species is required to migrate to keep pace with a changing climate following the LGM. We used a species distribution model to determine past and present white spruce and alder distributions using statistically downscaled climate data at 60m. Species velocity was then derived from the change in species distribution per year by the change in distribution over Alaska (km/yr). High velocities indicate locations where the species environmental envelope is changing drastically and must disperse rapidly to survive climate change. As a result, high velocity regions are more vulnerable to distribution shifts and higher risk of local extinction. Conversely, low species velocities indicate locations where the local climate envelope is shifting relatively slowly, reducing the stress to disperse quickly with minimal loss of optimal habitat. Our results suggest that these species do not exclusively redistribute to higher latitudes and elevations in a warming climate, suggesting that 1) microtopography plays a significant role in the distribution of a species and 2) many species may not be tracking temperature change, but other climate restrictions.

The Changing Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Stephen H.

1989-01-01

Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)

Being Prepared for Climate Change: Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks, from Step 3

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Being Prepared for Climate Change workbook is a guide for constructing a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. These checklists (from Step 3 of the workbook) help users identify risks.

Climate-FVS Version 2: Content, users guide, applications, and behavior

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

2014-01-01

Climate change in the 21st Century is projected to cause widespread changes in forest ecosystems. Climate-FVS is a modification to the Forest Vegetation Simulator designed to take climate change into account when predicting forest dynamics at decadal to century time scales. Individual tree climate viability scores measure the likelihood that the climate at a given...

Knowing climate change, embodying climate praxis: experiential knowledge in southern Appalachia

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Rice; Brian J. Burke; Nik Heynen

2015-01-01

Whether used to support or impede action, scientific knowledge is now, more than ever, the primary framework for political discourse on climate change. As a consequence, science has become a hegemonic way of knowing climate change by mainstream climate politics, which not only limits the actors and actions deemed legitimate in climate politics but also silences...

Readying health services for climate change: a policy framework for regional development.

PubMed

Bell, Erica

2011-05-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change.

Readying Health Services for Climate Change: A Policy Framework for Regional Development

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change. PMID:21421953

2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.

PubMed

Blinman, Eric

2008-11-01

Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.

Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

PubMed

Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

2014-12-03

This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.

PubMed

Pandve, Harshal T

2009-04-01

Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana, G. L.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.; Piechota, T.

2008-12-01

The Great Basin is characterized by complex basin and range topography, arid to semiarid climate, and a history of sensitivity to climate change. Mountain areas comprise about 10% of the landscape, yet are the areas of highest precipitation and generate 85% of groundwater recharge and most surface runoff. These characteristics provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of climate change. The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision "to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders." Six major strategies are proposed to develop infrastructure needs and attain our vision: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change at a regional and sub-regional scale(Climate Modeling Component) 2) Analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Assess effects on human systems and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Train teachers and students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). Two new climate observational transects will be established across Great Basin Ranges, one anticipated on a mountain range in southern Nevada and the second to be located in north-central Nevada. Climatic, hydrologic and ecological data from these transects will be downloaded into high capacity data storage units and made available to researchers through creation of the Nevada climate change portal. Our research will aim to answer two interdisciplinary science questions key to understanding the effects of future climate change on Great Basin mountain ecosystems and the potential management strategies for responding to these changes: 1) How will climate change affect water resources and linked ecosystem resources and human systems? And 2) How will climate change affect disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, insect outbreaks, droughts) and linked systems? Infrastructure developed through this project will provide new interdisciplinary capability to detect, analyze, and model effects of regional climate change in mountainous regions of the west and provide a major contribution to existing climate change research and monitoring networks.

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

2013-01-01

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

PubMed Central

Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

2013-01-01

In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change. PMID:23359638

Put a Frame on It: Contextualizing Climate Change for Museum Visitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canning, Katharine

Public opinion polls continue to show that Americans are divided---particularly along political and ideological lines---on whether climate change is real and warrants immediate action. Those in the natural and social sciences have recognized that effective communication is key to closing the gap that exists between scientific and public understanding on this issue. A body of social science research on climate change communication has emerged within the last decade. This field has identified strategies for climate change communicators and educators, emphasizing the importance of framing climate change issues in ways that help it resonate with a wider range of public concerns and values in order to develop a shared belief regarding the necessity of action. Museum exhibits and programs on climate change that were developed within the last five years are likely to have benefitted from this body of work. This qualitative research seeks to examine and analyze the various ways museums in the United States are communicating about climate change related issues to the public. Three case studies of museum exhibits on climate change issues were examined. The scope and purpose of climate change communication in museums, the specific messages that museums are choosing to communicate, and how those messages are being framed for public audiences were explored through these case studies. The findings suggest that museums are considering their audience when framing messages about climate change and have used work from the climate change communication field to inform message development. In particular, museums are making climate change issues more relevant by emphasizing social, economic, and human health concerns, and are considering strategies to counteract fear-fatigue and empower visitors to take action.

Farm Simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Farms both produce greenhouse gas emissions that drive human-induced climate change and are impacted by that climate change. Whole farm and global climate models provide useful tools for studying the benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and the adaptation of farms to changing climate. The...

Perceptions of and Attitudes Toward Climate Change in the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

David Himmelfarb; John Schelhas; Sarah Hitchner; Cassandra Johnson Gaither; KathErine Dunbar; J. Peter Brosius

2014-01-01

Despite a global scientific consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change, the issue remains highly contentious in the United States, stifling public debate and action on the issue. Local perceptions of and attitudes toward climate change-how different groups of people outside of the professional climate science community make sense of changes in climate in...

Climate Change in the Classroom: Patterns, Motivations, and Barriers to Instruction among Colorado Science Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wise, Sarah B.

2010-01-01

A large online survey of Colorado public school science teachers (n = 628) on the topic of climate change instruction was conducted in 2007. A majority of Earth science teachers were found to include climate and climate change in their courses. However, the majority of teachers of other science subjects only informally discuss climate change, if…

A conceptual model of plant responses to climate with implications for monitoring ecosystem change

Treesearch

C. David Bertelsen

2013-01-01

Climate change is affecting natural systems on a global scale and is particularly rapid in the Southwest. It is important to identify impacts of a changing climate before ecosystems become unstable. Recognizing plant responses to climate change requires knowledge of both species present and plant responses to variable climatic conditions. A conceptual model derived...

A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments

PubMed Central

Iwamura, Takuya; Wilson, Kerrie A.; Venter, Oscar; Possingham, Hugh P.

2010-01-01

Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002–2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term. PMID:21152095

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.

2014-12-01

Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.