multinomial logits: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for multinomial logits

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.
On the development of a semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model for travel-related choices

PubMed Central

Ye, Xin; Pendyala, Ram M.; Zou, Yajie

2017-01-01

A semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model, formulated using orthonormal Legendre polynomials to extend the standard Gumbel distribution, is presented in this paper. The resulting semi-nonparametric function can represent a probability density function for a large family of multimodal distributions. The model has a closed-form log-likelihood function that facilitates model estimation. The proposed method is applied to model commute mode choice among four alternatives (auto, transit, bicycle and walk) using travel behavior data from Argau, Switzerland. Comparisons between the multinomial logit model and the proposed semi-nonparametric model show that violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption lead to considerable inconsistency in parameter estimates and model inferences. PMID:29073152
On the development of a semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model for travel-related choices.

PubMed

Wang, Ke; Ye, Xin; Pendyala, Ram M; Zou, Yajie

2017-01-01

A semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model, formulated using orthonormal Legendre polynomials to extend the standard Gumbel distribution, is presented in this paper. The resulting semi-nonparametric function can represent a probability density function for a large family of multimodal distributions. The model has a closed-form log-likelihood function that facilitates model estimation. The proposed method is applied to model commute mode choice among four alternatives (auto, transit, bicycle and walk) using travel behavior data from Argau, Switzerland. Comparisons between the multinomial logit model and the proposed semi-nonparametric model show that violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption lead to considerable inconsistency in parameter estimates and model inferences.
Who Is Overeducated and Why? Probit and Dynamic Mixed Multinomial Logit Analyses of Vertical Mismatch in East and West Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boll, Christina; Leppin, Julian Sebastian; Schömann, Klaus

2016-01-01

Overeducation potentially signals a productivity loss. With Socio-Economic Panel data from 1984 to 2011 we identify drivers of educational mismatch for East and West medium and highly educated Germans. Addressing measurement error, state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, we run dynamic mixed multinomial logit models for three different…
Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Quality and provider choice: a multinomial logit-least-squares model with selectivity.

PubMed Central

Haas-Wilson, D; Savoca, E

1990-01-01

A Federal Trade Commission survey of contact lens wearers is used to estimate a multinomial logit-least-squares model of the joint determination of provider choice and quality of care in the contact lens industry. The effect of personal and industry characteristics on a consumer's choice among three types of providers--opticians, ophthalmologists, and optometrists--is estimated via multinomial logit. The regression model of the quality of care has two features that distinguish it from previous work in the area. First, it uses an outcome rather than a structural or process measure of quality. Quality is measured as an index of the presence of seven potentially pathological eye conditions caused by poorly fitted lenses. Second, the model controls for possible selection bias that may arise from the fact that the sample observations on quality are generated by consumers' nonrandom choices of providers. The multinomial logit estimates of provider choice indicate that professional regulations limiting the commercial practices of optometrists shift demand for contact lens services away from optometrists toward ophthalmologists. Further, consumers are more likely to have their lenses fitted by opticians in states that require the licensing of opticians. The regression analysis of variations in quality across provider types shows a strong positive selection bias in the estimate of the quality of care received by consumers of ophthalmologists' services. Failure to control for this selection bias results in an overestimate of the quality of care provided by ophthalmologists. PMID:2312308
Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

2011-01-01

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Application of a Multidimensional Nested Logit Model to Multiple-Choice Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk

2012-01-01

Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…
Cognitive overload? An exploration of the potential impact of cognitive functioning in discrete choice experiments with older people in health care.

PubMed

Milte, Rachel; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Lancsar, Emily; Miller, Michelle; Crotty, Maria

2014-07-01

This exploratory study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive functioning on the consistency of individual responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study conducted exclusively with older people. A DCE to investigate preferences for multidisciplinary rehabilitation was administered to a consenting sample of older patients (aged 65 years and older) after surgery to repair a fractured hip (N = 84). Conditional logit, mixed logit, heteroscedastic conditional logit, and generalized multinomial logit regression models were used to analyze the DCE data and to explore the relationship between the level of cognitive functioning (specifically the absence or presence of mild cognitive impairment as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination) and preference and scale heterogeneity. Both the heteroscedastic conditional logit and generalized multinomial logit models indicated that the presence of mild cognitive impairment did not have a significant effect on the consistency of responses to the DCE. This study provides important preliminary evidence relating to the effect of mild cognitive impairment on DCE responses for older people. It is important that further research be conducted in larger samples and more diverse populations to further substantiate the findings from this exploratory study and to assess the practicality and validity of the DCE approach with populations of older people. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

PubMed

Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

2010-06-01

This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.
Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

PubMed

Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

2018-06-01

As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.
Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data. PMID:28348500
Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

2017-01-01

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.
A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE PAGES

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

2017-11-08

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less
A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less
Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

2011-06-01

Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.
Network-constrained group lasso for high-dimensional multinomial classification with application to cancer subtype prediction.

PubMed

Tian, Xinyu; Wang, Xuefeng; Chen, Jun

2014-01-01

Classic multinomial logit model, commonly used in multiclass regression problem, is restricted to few predictors and does not take into account the relationship among variables. It has limited use for genomic data, where the number of genomic features far exceeds the sample size. Genomic features such as gene expressions are usually related by an underlying biological network. Efficient use of the network information is important to improve classification performance as well as the biological interpretability. We proposed a multinomial logit model that is capable of addressing both the high dimensionality of predictors and the underlying network information. Group lasso was used to induce model sparsity, and a network-constraint was imposed to induce the smoothness of the coefficients with respect to the underlying network structure. To deal with the non-smoothness of the objective function in optimization, we developed a proximal gradient algorithm for efficient computation. The proposed model was compared to models with no prior structure information in both simulations and a problem of cancer subtype prediction with real TCGA (the cancer genome atlas) gene expression data. The network-constrained mode outperformed the traditional ones in both cases.
Compensation of hospital-based physicians.

PubMed Central

Steinwald, B

1983-01-01

This study is concerned with methods of compensating hospital-based physicians (HBPs) in five medical specialties: anesthesiology, pathology, radiology, cardiology, and emergency medicine. Data on 2232 nonfederal, short-term general hospitals came from a mail questionnaire survey conducted in Fall 1979. The data indicate that numerous compensation methods exist but these methods, without much loss of precision, can be reduced to salary, percentage of department revenue, and fee-for-service. When HBPs are compensated by salary or percentage methods, most patient billing is conducted by the hospital. In contrast, most fee-for-service HBPs bill their patients directly. Determinants of HBP compensation methods are investigated via multinomial logit analysis. This analysis indicates that choice of HBP compensation methods are investigated via multinomial logit analysis. This analysis indicates that choice of HBP compensation methods is sensitive to a number of hospital characteristics and attributes of both the hospital and physicians' services markets. The empirical findings are discussed in light of past conceptual and empirical research on physician compensation, and current policy issues in the health services sector. PMID:6841112
Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.
Choice-Based Segmentation as an Enrollment Management Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Mark R.

2002-01-01

This article presents an approach to enrollment management based on target marketing strategies developed from a choice-based segmentation methodology. Students are classified into "switchable" or "non-switchable" segments based on their probability of selecting specific majors. A modified multinomial logit choice model is used to identify…

The Mixed Effects Trend Vector Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Rooij, Mark; Schouteden, Martijn

2012-01-01

Maximum likelihood estimation of mixed effect baseline category logit models for multinomial longitudinal data can be prohibitive due to the integral dimension of the random effects distribution. We propose to use multidimensional unfolding methodology to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. As a by-product, readily interpretable graphical…
Saving for Success: Financial Education and Savings Goal Achievement in Individual Development Accounts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grinstead, Mary L.; Mauldin, Teresa; Sabia, Joseph J.; Koonce, Joan; Palmer, Lance

2011-01-01

Using microdata from the American Dream Demonstration, the current study examines factors associated with savings and savings goal achievement (indicated by a matched withdrawal) among participants of individual development account (IDA) programs. Multinomial logit results show that hours of participation in financial education programs, higher…
Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Indonesia Junior High School Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuo, Bor-Chen; Daud, Muslem; Yang, Chih-Wei

2015-01-01

This paper describes a curriculum-based multidimensional computerized adaptive test that was developed for Indonesia junior high school Biology. In adherence to the Indonesian curriculum of different Biology dimensions, 300 items was constructed, and then tested to 2238 students. A multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model was…
An Analysis of Losses to the Southern Commercial Timberland Base

Treesearch

Ian A. Munn; David Cleaves

1998-01-01

Demographic and physical factors influencing the conversion of commercial timberland iu the south to non-forestry uses between the last two Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) surveys were investigated. GIS techniques linked Census data and FIA plot level data. Multinomial logit regression identified factors associated with losses to the timberland base. Conversion to...
A panel multinomial logit analysis of elderly living arrangements: evidence from Aging In Manitoba longitudinal data, Canada.

PubMed

Sarma, Sisira; Simpson, Wayne

2007-12-01

Utilizing a unique longitudinal survey linked with home care use data, this paper analyzes the determinants of elderly living arrangements in Manitoba, Canada using a random effects multinomial logit model that accounts for unobserved individual heterogeneity. Because current home ownership is potentially endogenous in a living arrangements choice model, we use prior home ownership as an instrument. We also use prior home care use as an instrument for home care and use a random coefficient framework to account for unobserved health status. After controlling for relevant socio-demographic factors and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find that home care and home ownership reduce the probability of living in a nursing home. Consistent with previous studies, we find that age is a strong predictor of nursing home entry. We also find that married people, those who have lived longer in the same community, and those who are healthy are more likely to live independently and less likely to be institutionalized or to cohabit with individuals other than their spouse.
Using Multidimensional Rasch Analysis to Validate the Chinese Version of the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ-CV)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, John Chi-Kin; Zhang, Zhonghua; Yin, Hongbiao

2010-01-01

This article used the multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model to examine the construct validity and detect the substantial differential item functioning (DIF) of the Chinese version of motivated strategies for learning questionnaire (MSLQ-CV). A total of 1,354 Hong Kong junior high school students were administered the…
A Multinomial Logit Model of Attrition that Distinguishes between Stopout and Dropout Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratton, Leslie S.; O'Toole, Dennis M.; Wetzel, James N.

2004-01-01

College attrition rates are of substantial concern to policy makers and economists interested in educational attainment and earnings opportunities. This is not surprising since nationwide, almost one-third of all first-time college students fail to return for their sophomore year. There exists a substantial body of literature seeking to model this…
A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

Treesearch

Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

1998-01-01

Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...
Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

2017-01-01

Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…
Emotional Reactions to Stress among Adolescent Boys and Girls: An Examination of the Mediating Mechanisms Proposed by General Strain Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sigfusdottir, Inga-Dora; Silver, Eric

2009-01-01

This study examines the effects of negative life events on anger and depressed mood among a sample of 7,758 Icelandic adolescents, measured as part of the National Survey of Icelandic Adolescents (Thorlindsson, Sigfusdottir, Bernburg, & Halldorsson, 1998). Using multiple linear regression and multinomial logit regression, we find that (a)…
How School Choice Is Framed by Parental Preferences and Family Characteristics: A Study of Western Area, Sierra Leone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, Pauline; Humble, Steve

2017-01-01

This research set out to investigate how, in a post-conflict area, parental preferences and household characteristics affect school choice for their children. A multinomial logit is used to model the relationship between education preferences and the selection of schools for 954 households in Freetown and neighboring districts, Western Area,…
An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

2013-10-15

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

2010-09-01

A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.
A Study of Commuters’ Decision-Making When Delaying Departure for Work-Home Trips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Que, Fangjie; Wang, Wei

2017-12-01

Studies on the travel behaviors and patterns of residents are important to the arrangement of urban layouts and urban traffic planning. However, research on the characteristics of the decision-making behavior regarding departure time is not fully expanded yet. In this paper, the research focuses on commuters’ decision-making behavior regarding departure delay. According to the 2013 travel survey data of Suzhou City, a nested logit (NL) model was built to represent the probabilities of individual choices. Parameter calibration was conducted, so that the significant factors influencing the departure delay were obtained. Ultimately, the results of the NL model indicated that it performed better and with higher precision, compared to the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model.
Predictors of Place of Death for Seniors in Ontario: A Population-Based Cohort Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Motiwala, Sanober S.; Croxford, Ruth; Guerriere, Denise N.; Coyte, Peter C.

2006-01-01

Place of death was determined for all 58,689 seniors (age greater than or equal to 66 years) in Ontario who died during fiscal year 2001/2002. The relationship of place of death to medical and socio-demographic characteristics was examined using a multinomial logit model. Half (49.2 %) of these individuals died in hospital, 30.5 per cent died in a…
Factors influencing spatial pattern in tropical forest clearance and stand age: Implications for carbon storage and species diversity.

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E. H. Helmer; Thomas J. Brandeis; Ariel E. Lugo; Todd Kennaway

2008-01-01

Little is known about the tropical forests that undergo clearing as urban/built-up and other developed lands spread. This study uses remote sensing-based maps of Puerto Rico, multinomial logit models and forest inventory data to explain patterns of forest age and the age of forests cleared for land development and assess their implications for forest carbon storage and...
Design and analysis of simple choice surveys for natural resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fieberg, John; Cornicelli, Louis; Fulton, David C.; Grund, Marrett D.

2010-01-01

We used a simple yet powerful method for judging public support for management actions from randomized surveys. We asked respondents to rank choices (representing management regulations under consideration) according to their preference, and we then used discrete choice models to estimate probability of choosing among options (conditional on the set of options presented to respondents). Because choices may share similar unmodeled characteristics, the multinomial logit model, commonly applied to discrete choice data, may not be appropriate. We introduced the nested logit model, which offers a simple approach for incorporating correlation among choices. This forced choice survey approach provides a useful method of gathering public input; it is relatively easy to apply in practice, and the data are likely to be more informative than asking constituents to rate attractiveness of each option separately.
Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

PubMed

Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

2016-05-18

Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.
Impacts of geographical locations and sociocultural traits on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship.

PubMed

Vuong, Quan Hoang

2016-01-01

This paper presents new results obtained from investigating the data from a 2015 Vietnamese entrepreneurs' survey, containing 3071 observations. Evidence from the estimations using multinomial logits was found to support relationships between several sociocultural factors and entrepreneurship-related performance or traits. Specifically, those relationships include: (a) Active participation in entrepreneurs' social networks and reported value of creativity; (b) CSR-willingness and reported entrepreneurs' perseverance; (c) Transforming of sociocultural values and entrepreneurs' decisiveness; and, (d) Lessons learned from others' failures and perceived chance of success. Using geographical locations as the control variate, evaluations of the baseline-category logits models indicate their varying effects on the outcomes when combined with the sociocultural factors that are found to be statistically significant. Empirical probabilities that give further detail about behavioral patterns are provided; and toward the end, the paper offers some conclusions with some striking insights and useful explanations on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship processes.
Circulating Prolactin Associates With Diabetes and Impaired Glucose Regulation

PubMed Central

Wang, Tiange; Lu, Jieli; Xu, Yu; Li, Mian; Sun, Jichao; Zhang, Jie; Xu, Baihui; Xu, Min; Chen, Yuhong; Bi, Yufang; Wang, Weiqing; Ning, Guang

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE Prolactin is a major stimulus for the β-cell adaptation during gestation and guards postpartum women against gestational diabetes. Most studies of the role of prolactin on glucose metabolism have been conducted in humans and animals during pregnancy. However, little is known concerning the association between circulating prolactin and glucose metabolism outside pregnancy in epidemiological studies. We aimed to determine whether the variation of circulating prolactin concentration associates with diabetes and impaired glucose regulation (IGR) in a cross-sectional study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We recruited 2,377 participants (1,034 men and 1,343 postmenopausal women) without hyperprolactinemia, aged 40 years and older, in Shanghai, China. Diabetes and IGR were determined by an oral glucose tolerance test. Multinomial logit analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship of prolactin with diabetes and IGR. RESULTS Prolactin levels decreased from normal glucose regulation to IGR to diabetes. Multinomial logit analyses, adjusted for potential confounding factors, showed that high circulating prolactin was associated with lower prevalence of diabetes and IGR. The adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for IGR and diabetes for the highest compared with the lowest quartile of prolactin were 0.54 (95% CI 0.33–0.89) and 0.38 (0.24–0.59) in men and 0.54 (0.36–0.81) and 0.47 (0.32–0.70) in women. CONCLUSIONS High circulating prolactin associates with lower prevalence of diabetes and IGR in the current study. Further studies are warranted to confirm this association. PMID:23340889

Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis zone level: A mixed fractional split multinomial logit modeling approach with spatial effects.

PubMed

Lee, Jaeyoung; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Cai, Qing

2018-02-01

In traffic safety literature, crash frequency variables are analyzed using univariate count models or multivariate count models. In this study, we propose an alternative approach to modeling multiple crash frequency dependent variables. Instead of modeling the frequency of crashes we propose to analyze the proportion of crashes by vehicle type. A flexible mixed multinomial logit fractional split model is employed for analyzing the proportions of crashes by vehicle type at the macro-level. In this model, the proportion allocated to an alternative is probabilistically determined based on the alternative propensity as well as the propensity of all other alternatives. Thus, exogenous variables directly affect all alternatives. The approach is well suited to accommodate for large number of alternatives without a sizable increase in computational burden. The model was estimated using crash data at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level from Florida. The modeling results clearly illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework for crash proportion analysis. Further, the Excess Predicted Proportion (EPP)-a screening performance measure analogous to Highway Safety Manual (HSM), Excess Predicted Average Crash Frequency is proposed for hot zone identification. Using EPP, a statewide screening exercise by the various vehicle types considered in our analysis was undertaken. The screening results revealed that the spatial pattern of hot zones is substantially different across the various vehicle types considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Estimating wetland vegetation abundance from Landsat-8 operational land imager imagery: a comparison between linear spectral mixture analysis and multinomial logit modeling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Min; Gong, Zhaoning; Zhao, Wenji; Pu, Ruiliang; Liu, Ke

2016-01-01

Mapping vegetation abundance by using remote sensing data is an efficient means for detecting changes of an eco-environment. With Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) imagery acquired on July 31, 2013, both linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) and multinomial logit model (MNLM) methods were applied to estimate and assess the vegetation abundance in the Wild Duck Lake Wetland in Beijing, China. To improve mapping vegetation abundance and increase the number of endmembers in spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from OLI imagery along with the seven reflective bands of OLI data for estimating the vegetation abundance. Five endmembers were selected, which include terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, bare soil, high albedo, and low albedo. The vegetation abundance mapping results from Landsat OLI data were finally evaluated by utilizing a WorldView-2 multispectral imagery. Similar spatial patterns of vegetation abundance produced by both fully constrained LSMA algorithm and MNLM methods were observed: higher vegetation abundance levels were distributed in agricultural and riparian areas while lower levels in urban/built-up areas. The experimental results also indicate that the MNLM model outperformed the LSMA algorithm with smaller root mean square error (0.0152 versus 0.0252) and higher coefficient of determination (0.7856 versus 0.7214) as the MNLM model could handle the nonlinear reflection phenomenon better than the LSMA with mixed pixels.
What influences participation in genetic carrier testing? Results from a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Hall, Jane; Fiebig, Denzil G; King, Madeleine T; Hossain, Ishrat; Louviere, Jordan J

2006-05-01

This study explores factors that influence participation in genetic testing programs and the acceptance of multiple tests. Tay Sachs and cystic fibrosis are both genetically determined recessive disorders with differing severity, treatment availability, and prevalence in different population groups. We used a discrete choice experiment with a general community and an Ashkenazi Jewish sample; data were analysed using multinomial logit with random coefficients. Although Jewish respondents were more likely to be tested, both groups seem to be making very similar tradeoffs across attributes when they make genetic testing choices.
Willingness to Pay for Improving the Residential Waste Disposal System in Korea: A Choice Experiment Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ku, Se-Ju; Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Kwak, Seung-Jun

2009-08-01

This study attempts to apply choice experiments with regard to the residential waste disposal system (RWDS) in Korea by considering various attributes that are related to RWDS. Using data from a survey conducted on 492 households, the empirical analysis yields estimates of the willingness to pay for a clean food-waste collection facility, the collection of small items (such as obsolete mobile phones and add-ons for personal computers), and a more convenient large waste disposal system. The estimation results of multinomial logit models are quite similar to those of nested logit models. The results reveal that residents have preferences for the cleanliness of facilities and the collection of small items. In Korea, residents are required to purchase and attach stickers for the disposal of large items; they want to be able to obtain stickers at not only village offices but also supermarkets. On the other hand, the frequency of waste collection is not a significant factor in the choice of the improved waste management program.
Willingness to pay for improving the residential waste disposal system in Korea: a choice experiment study.

PubMed

Ku, Se-Ju; Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Kwak, Seung-Jun

2009-08-01

This study attempts to apply choice experiments with regard to the residential waste disposal system (RWDS) in Korea by considering various attributes that are related to RWDS. Using data from a survey conducted on 492 households, the empirical analysis yields estimates of the willingness to pay for a clean food-waste collection facility, the collection of small items (such as obsolete mobile phones and add-ons for personal computers), and a more convenient large waste disposal system. The estimation results of multinomial logit models are quite similar to those of nested logit models. The results reveal that residents have preferences for the cleanliness of facilities and the collection of small items. In Korea, residents are required to purchase and attach stickers for the disposal of large items; they want to be able to obtain stickers at not only village offices but also supermarkets. On the other hand, the frequency of waste collection is not a significant factor in the choice of the improved waste management program.
A generalized nonlinear model-based mixed multinomial logit approach for crash data analysis.

PubMed

Zeng, Ziqiang; Zhu, Wenbo; Ke, Ruimin; Ash, John; Wang, Yinhai; Xu, Jiuping; Xu, Xinxin

2017-02-01

The mixed multinomial logit (MNL) approach, which can account for unobserved heterogeneity, is a promising unordered model that has been employed in analyzing the effect of factors contributing to crash severity. However, its basic assumption of using a linear function to explore the relationship between the probability of crash severity and its contributing factors can be violated in reality. This paper develops a generalized nonlinear model-based mixed MNL approach which is capable of capturing non-monotonic relationships by developing nonlinear predictors for the contributing factors in the context of unobserved heterogeneity. The crash data on seven Interstate freeways in Washington between January 2011 and December 2014 are collected to develop the nonlinear predictors in the model. Thirteen contributing factors in terms of traffic characteristics, roadway geometric characteristics, and weather conditions are identified to have significant mixed (fixed or random) effects on the crash density in three crash severity levels: fatal, injury, and property damage only. The proposed model is compared with the standard mixed MNL model. The comparison results suggest a slight superiority of the new approach in terms of model fit measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (12.06 percent decrease) and Bayesian Information Criterion (9.11 percent decrease). The predicted crash densities for all three levels of crash severities of the new approach are also closer (on average) to the observations than the ones predicted by the standard mixed MNL model. Finally, the significance and impacts of the contributing factors are analyzed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Quality of life of patients from rural and urban areas in Poland with head and neck cancer treated with radiotherapy. A study of the influence of selected socio-demographic factors.

PubMed

Depta, Adam; Jewczak, Maciej; Skura-Madziała, Anna

2017-10-01

The quality of life (QoL) experienced by cancer patients depends both on their state of health and on sociodemographic factors. Tumours in the head and neck region have a particularly adverse effect on patients psychologically and on their social functioning. The study involved 121 patients receiving radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancers. They included 72 urban and 49 rural residents. QoL was assessed using the questionnaires EORTC-QLQ-C30 and QLQ-H&N35. The data were analysed using statistical methods: a χ 2 test for independence and a multinomial logit model. The evaluation of QoL showed a strong, statistically significant, positive dependence on state of health, and a weak dependence on sociodemographic factors and place of residence. Evaluations of financial situation and living conditions were similar for rural and urban residents. Patients from urban areas had the greatest anxiety about deterioration of their state of health. Rural respondents were more often anxious about a worsening of their financial situation, and expressed a fear of loneliness. Studying the QoL of patients with head and neck cancer provides information concerning the areas in which the disease inhibits their lives, and the extent to which it does so. It indicates conditions for the adaptation of treatment and care methods in the healthcare system which might improve the QoL of such patients. A multinomial logit model identifies the factors determining the patients' health assessment and defines the probable values of such assessment.
Drivers of multidimensional eco-innovation: empirical evidence from the Brazilian industry.

PubMed

da Silva Rabêlo, Olivan; de Azevedo Melo, Andrea Sales Soares

2018-03-08

The study analyses the relationships between the main drivers of eco-innovation introduced by innovative industries, focused on cooperation strategy. Eco-innovation is analysed by means of a multidimensional identification strategy, showing the relationships between the independent variables and the variable of interest. The literature discussing environmental innovation is different from the one discussing other types of innovation inasmuch as it seeks to grasp its determinants and to mostly highlight the relevance of environmental regulation. The key feature of this paper is that it ascribes special relevance to cooperation strategy with external partners and to the propensity of innovative industry introducing eco-innovation. A sample of 35,060 Brazilian industries were analysed, between 2003 and 2011, by means of Binomial, Multinomial and Ordinal logistic regressions with microdata collected with the research and innovation department (PINTEC) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). The econometric results estimated by the Logit Multinomial method suggest that the cooperation with external partners practiced by innovative industries facilitates the adoption of eco-innovation in dimension 01 with probability of 64.59%, 57.63% in dimension 02 and 81.02% in dimension 03. The data reveal that the higher the degree of eco-innovation complexity, the harder industries seek to obtain cooperation with external partners. When calculating with the Logit Ordinal and Binomial models, cooperation increases the probability that the industry is eco-innovative in 65.09% and 89.34%, respectively. Environmental regulation and innovation in product and information management were also positively correlated as drivers of eco-innovation.
A multilevel model for comorbid outcomes: obesity and diabetes in the US.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2010-02-01

Multilevel models are overwhelmingly applied to single health outcomes, but when two or more health conditions are closely related, it is important that contextual variation in their joint prevalence (e.g., variations over different geographic settings) is considered. A multinomial multilevel logit regression approach for analysing joint prevalence is proposed here that includes subject level risk factors (e.g., age, race, education) while also taking account of geographic context. Data from a US population health survey (the 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System or BRFSS) are used to illustrate the method, with a six category multinomial outcome defined by diabetic status and weight category (obese, overweight, normal). The influence of geographic context is partly represented by known geographic variables (e.g., county poverty), and partly by a model for latent area influences. In particular, a shared latent variable (common factor) approach is proposed to measure the impact of unobserved area influences on joint weight and diabetes status, with the latent variable being spatially structured to reflect geographic clustering in risk.
Willingness to pay for midwife-endorsed product: An Australian best-worst study.

PubMed

Lahtinen, Ville; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Adamsen, Jannie Mia

2016-01-01

This article examined the impact of midwife endorsement on stated choice preferences in one of the highest volume baby care product categories, diapers. An online survey was conducted testing 12 alternatives of which six were midwife endorsed. A total of 215 responses were analyzed using best-worst and multinomial logit modeling. Results indicate that package size, price, and brand are more sensitive predictors of stated choice preferences than midwife endorsement. Respondents were willing to pay 2.3% more for a diaper that was endorsed by midwives. These findings suggest that midwife endorsement should be pursued by health marketers.
Simulating landscape change in the Olympic Peninsula using spatial ecological and socioeconomic data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flamm, R.O.; Gottfried, R.; Lee, R.G.

1994-06-01

Ecological and socioeconomic data were integrated to study landscape change for the Dungeness River basin in the Olympic Peninsula, Washington State. A multinomial logit procedure was used to evaluate twenty-two maps representing various data themes to derive transition probabilities of land cover change. Probabilities of forest disturbance were greater on private land than public. Between 1975 and 1988, forest cover increased, grassy/brushy covers decreased, and the number of forest patches increased about 30%. Simulations were run to estimate future land cover. These results were represented as frequency distributions for proportion cover and patch characteristics.
Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd

Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test ofmore » the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.« less
Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam

2015-10-01

Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.
Preferences for tap water attributes within couples: An exploration of alternative mixed logit parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarpa, Riccardo; Thiene, Mara; Hensher, David A.

2012-01-01

Preferences for attributes of complex goods may differ substantially among members of households. Some of these goods, such as tap water, are jointly supplied at the household level. This issue of jointness poses a series of theoretical and empirical challenges to economists engaged in empirical nonmarket valuation studies. While a series of results have already been obtained in the literature, the issue of how to empirically measure these differences, and how sensitive the results are to choice of model specification from the same data, is yet to be clearly understood. In this paper we use data from a widely employed form of stated preference survey for multiattribute goods, namely choice experiments. The salient feature of the data collection is that the same choice experiment was applied to both partners of established couples. The analysis focuses on models that simultaneously handle scale as well as preference heterogeneity in marginal rates of substitution (MRS), thereby isolating true differences between members of couples in their MRS, by removing interpersonal variation in scale. The models employed are different parameterizations of the mixed logit model, including the willingness to pay (WTP)-space model and the generalized multinomial logit model. We find that in this sample there is some evidence of significant statistical differences in values between women and men, but these are of small magnitude and only apply to a few attributes.
A new strategy to analyze possible association structures between dynamic nocturnal hormone activities and sleep alterations in humans.

PubMed

Kalus, Stefanie; Kneib, Thomas; Steiger, Axel; Holsboer, Florian; Yassouridis, Alexander

2009-04-01

The human sleep process shows dynamic alterations during the night. Methods are needed to examine whether and to what extent such alterations are affected by internal, possibly time-dependent, factors, such as endocrine activity. In an observational study, we examined simultaneously sleep EEG and nocturnal levels of renin, growth hormone (GH), and cortisol (between 2300 and 0700) in 47 healthy volunteers comprising 24 women (41.67 +/- 2.93 yr of age) and 23 men (37.26 +/- 2.85 yr of age). Hormone concentrations were measured every 20 min. Conventional sleep stage scoring at 30-s intervals was applied. Semiparametric multinomial logit models are used to study and quantify possible time-dependent hormone effects on sleep stage transition courses. Results show that increased cortisol levels decrease the probability of transition from rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep to wakefulness (WAKE) and increase the probability of transition from REM to non-REM (NREM) sleep, irrespective of the time in the night. Via the model selection criterion Akaike's information criterion, it was found that all considered hormone effects on transition probabilities with the initial state WAKE change with time. Similarly, transition from slow-wave sleep (SWS) to light sleep (LS) is affected by a "hormone-time" interaction for cortisol and renin, but not GH. For example, there is a considerable increase in the probability of SWS-LS transition toward the end of the night, when cortisol concentrations are very high. In summary, alterations in human sleep possess dynamic forms and are partially influenced by the endocrine activity of certain hormones. Statistical methods, such as semiparametric multinomial and time-dependent logit regression, can offer ambitious ways to investigate and estimate the association intensities between the nonstationary sleep changes and the time-dependent endocrine activities.
Quality of life of patients from rural and urban areas in Poland with head and neck cancer treated with radiotherapy. A study of the influence of selected socio-demographic factors

PubMed Central

Jewczak, Maciej; Skura-Madziała, Anna

2017-01-01

Introduction The quality of life (QoL) experienced by cancer patients depends both on their state of health and on sociodemographic factors. Tumours in the head and neck region have a particularly adverse effect on patients psychologically and on their social functioning. Material and methods The study involved 121 patients receiving radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancers. They included 72 urban and 49 rural residents. QoL was assessed using the questionnaires EORTC-QLQ-C30 and QLQ-H&N35. The data were analysed using statistical methods: a χ2 test for independence and a multinomial logit model. Results The evaluation of QoL showed a strong, statistically significant, positive dependence on state of health, and a weak dependence on sociodemographic factors and place of residence. Evaluations of financial situation and living conditions were similar for rural and urban residents. Patients from urban areas had the greatest anxiety about deterioration of their state of health. Rural respondents were more often anxious about a worsening of their financial situation, and expressed a fear of loneliness. Conclusions Studying the QoL of patients with head and neck cancer provides information concerning the areas in which the disease inhibits their lives, and the extent to which it does so. It indicates conditions for the adaptation of treatment and care methods in the healthcare system which might improve the QoL of such patients. A multinomial logit model identifies the factors determining the patients’ health assessment and defines the probable values of such assessment. PMID:29181080
Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity.

PubMed

Naik, Bhaven; Tung, Li-Wei; Zhao, Shanshan; Khattak, Aemal J

2016-09-01

The focus of this paper is on illustrating the feasibility of aggregating data from disparate sources to investigate the relationship between single-vehicle truck crash injury severity and detailed weather conditions. Specifically, this paper presents: (a) a methodology that combines detailed 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, and (b) an empirical investigation of the effects of weather on crash-related injury severities of single-vehicle truck crashes. Random parameters ordinal and multinomial regression models were used to investigate crash injury severity under different weather conditions, taking into account the individual unobserved heterogeneity. The adopted methodology allowed consideration of environmental, roadway, and climate-related variables in single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. Results showed that wind speed, rain, humidity, and air temperature were linked with single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. Greater recorded wind speed added to the severity of injuries in single-vehicle truck crashes in general. Rain and warmer air temperatures were linked to more severe crash injuries in single-vehicle truck crashes while higher levels of humidity were linked to less severe injuries. Random parameters ordered logit and multinomial logit, respectively, revealed some individual heterogeneity in the data and showed that integrating comprehensive weather data with crash data provided useful insights into factors associated with single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. The research provided a practical method that combined comprehensive 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, thereby providing useful insights into crash injury severity of single-vehicle trucks. Those insights are useful for future truck driver educational programs and for truck safety in different weather conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.
How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less
How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong; ...

2016-12-08

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less
Choice of contracts in the British National Health Service: an empirical study.

PubMed

Chalkley, Martin; McVicar, Duncan

2008-09-01

Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform.

Ordinal probability effect measures for group comparisons in multinomial cumulative link models.

PubMed

Agresti, Alan; Kateri, Maria

2017-03-01

We consider simple ordinal model-based probability effect measures for comparing distributions of two groups, adjusted for explanatory variables. An "ordinal superiority" measure summarizes the probability that an observation from one distribution falls above an independent observation from the other distribution, adjusted for explanatory variables in a model. The measure applies directly to normal linear models and to a normal latent variable model for ordinal response variables. It equals Φ(β/2) for the corresponding ordinal model that applies a probit link function to cumulative multinomial probabilities, for standard normal cdf Φ and effect β that is the coefficient of the group indicator variable. For the more general latent variable model for ordinal responses that corresponds to a linear model with other possible error distributions and corresponding link functions for cumulative multinomial probabilities, the ordinal superiority measure equals exp(β)/[1+exp(β)] with the log-log link and equals approximately exp(β/2)/[1+exp(β/2)] with the logit link, where β is the group effect. Another ordinal superiority measure generalizes the difference of proportions from binary to ordinal responses. We also present related measures directly for ordinal models for the observed response that need not assume corresponding latent response models. We present confidence intervals for the measures and illustrate with an example. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Assessing coastal plain wetland composition using advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantaleoni, Eva

Establishing wetland gains and losses, delineating wetland boundaries, and determining their vegetative composition are major challenges that can be improved through remote sensing studies. We used the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) to separate wetlands from uplands in a study of 870 locations on the Virginia Coastal Plain. We used the first five bands from each of two ASTER scenes (6 March 2005 and 16 October 2005), covering the visible to the short-wave infrared region (0.52-2.185mum). We included GIS data layers for soil survey, topography, and presence or absence of water in a logistic regression model that predicted the location of over 78% of the wetlands. While this was slightly less accurate (78% vs. 86%) than current National Wetland Inventory (NWI) aerial photo interpretation procedures of locating wetlands, satellite imagery analysis holds great promise for speeding wetland mapping, lowering costs, and improving update frequency. To estimate wetland vegetation composition classes, we generated a classification and regression tree (CART) model and a multinomial logistic regression (logit) model, and compared their accuracy in separating woody wetlands, emergent wetlands and open water. The overall accuracy of the CART model was 73.3%, while for the logit model was 76.7%. The CART producer's accuracy of the emergent wetlands was higher than the accuracy from the multinomial logit (57.1% vs. 40.7%). However, we obtained the opposite result for the woody wetland category (68.7% vs. 52.6%). A McNemar test between the two models and NWI maps showed that their accuracies were not statistically different. We conducted a subpixel analysis of the ASTER images to estimate canopy cover of forested wetlands. We used top-of-atmosphere reflectance from the visible and near infrared bands, Delta Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and a tasseled cap brightness, greenness, and wetness in linear regression model with canopy cover as the dependent variable. The model achieved an adjusted-R 2 of 0.69 (RMSE = 2.7%) for canopy cover less than 16%, and an adjusted-R 2 of 0.04 (RMSE = 19.8%) for higher canopy cover values. Taken together, these findings suggest that satellite remote sensing, in concert with other spatial data, has strong potential for mapping both wetland presence and type.
A Multilevel Model for Comorbid Outcomes: Obesity and Diabetes in the US

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Multilevel models are overwhelmingly applied to single health outcomes, but when two or more health conditions are closely related, it is important that contextual variation in their joint prevalence (e.g., variations over different geographic settings) is considered. A multinomial multilevel logit regression approach for analysing joint prevalence is proposed here that includes subject level risk factors (e.g., age, race, education) while also taking account of geographic context. Data from a US population health survey (the 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System or BRFSS) are used to illustrate the method, with a six category multinomial outcome defined by diabetic status and weight category (obese, overweight, normal). The influence of geographic context is partly represented by known geographic variables (e.g., county poverty), and partly by a model for latent area influences. In particular, a shared latent variable (common factor) approach is proposed to measure the impact of unobserved area influences on joint weight and diabetes status, with the latent variable being spatially structured to reflect geographic clustering in risk. PMID:20616977
Body mass index and employment status: A new look.

PubMed

Kinge, Jonas Minet

2016-09-01

Earlier literature has usually modelled the impact of obesity on employment status as a binary choice (employed, yes/no). I provide new evidence on the impact of obesity on employment status by treating the dependent variable as a as a multinomial choice variable. Using data from a representative English survey, with measured height and weight on parents and children, I define employment status as one of four: working; looking for paid work; permanently not working due to disability; and, looking after home or family. I use a multinomial logit model controlling for a set of covariates. I also run instrumental variable models, instrumenting for Body Mass Index (BMI) based on genetic variation in weight. I find that BMI and obesity significantly increase the probability of "not working due to disability". The results for the other employment outcomes are less clear. My findings also indicate that BMI affects employment through its effect on health. Factors other than health may be less important in explaining the impact of BMI/obesity on employment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Value of arsenic-free drinking water to rural households in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Ahmad, Junaid; Goldar, Bishwanath; Misra, Smita

2005-01-01

Using contingent valuation survey data for about 2700 households in rural Bangladesh, and applying a multinomial logit model, the paper estimates the value of arsenic-free drinking water to the rural people. The estimates indicate that the rural people in arsenic-affected areas of Bangladesh place a low value on arsenic-free drinking water. It is about 10-14 percent of the amount they are willing to pay for piped water and only about 0.2-0.3 percent of the average household income. The implication of the result is that robust but costly arsenic reduction technologies such as activated alumina technology may find little social acceptance, unless heavily subsidized.
Adoption and Diffusion of Evidence-Based Addiction Medications in Substance Abuse Treatment

PubMed Central

Heinrich, Carolyn J; Cummings, Grant R

2014-01-01

ObjectiveTo examine the roles of facility-and state-level factors in treatment facilities’ adoption and diffusion of pharmaceutical agents used in addiction treatment. Data SourcesSecondary data from the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS), Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Alcohol Policy Information System, and Kaiser Family Foundation. Study DesignWe estimate ordered logit and multinomial logit models to examine the relationship of state and treatment facility characteristics to the adoption and diffusion of three pharmaceutical agents over 4 years when each was at a different stage of adoption or diffusion. Data CollectionN-SSATS data with facility codes, obtained directly from SAMHSA, were linked by state identifiers to the other publicly available, secondary data. Principal FindingsThe analysis confirms the importance of awareness and exposure to the adoption behavior of others, dissemination of information about the feasibility and effectiveness of innovations, geographical clustering, and licensing and accreditation in legitimizing facilities’ adoption and continued use of pharmacotherapies in addiction treatment. ConclusionsPolicy and administrative levers exist to increase the availability of pharmaceutical technologies and their continued use by substance abuse treatment facilities. PMID:23855719
Malaria care seeking behavior of individuals in Ghana under the NHIS: Are we back to the use of informal care?

PubMed

Fenny, Ama Pokuaa; Asante, Felix A; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian S

2015-04-12

Malaria is Ghana's most endemic disease; occurring across most parts of the country with a significant impact on individuals and the health system as whole. Treatment seeking for malaria care takes various forms. The National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) was introduced in 2004 to promote access to health services to mitigate the negative impact of the user fee regime. Ten years on, national coverage is less than 40% of the total population and patients continue to make direct payments for health services. This paper analyses the care-seeking behaviour of households for treatment of malaria in Ghana under the NHI policy. Using a cross-sectional survey of household data collected from three districts in Ghana covering the 3 ecological zones namely the coastal, forest and savannah, a multinomial logit model is estimated. The sample consists of 365 adults and children reporting being ill with malaria in the last four weeks prior to the study. Out of the total, 58% were insured and 71% of them sought care from a formal health facility. Among the insured, 15% chose informal care compared to 48% among the uninsured. The results from the multinomial logit estimations show that health insurance and travel time to health facility are significant determinants of health care demand. The results show that the insured are 6 times more likely to choose regional/district hospitals: 5 times more likely to choose health centres/clinics and 7 times more likely to choose private hospitals/clinics over informal care when compared with the uninsured. Individual characteristics such as age, education and wealth status were significant determinants of health care provider choice for specific categories of health facilities. Overall, for malaria care the uninsured are more likely to choose informal care compared to the insured for the treatment of malaria.
An agent-based model for queue formation of powered two-wheelers in heterogeneous traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tzu-Chang; Wong, K. I.

2016-11-01

This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the queue formation of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) in heterogeneous traffic at a signalized intersection. The main novelty is that the proposed interaction rule describing the position choice behavior of PTWs when queuing in heterogeneous traffic can capture the stochastic nature of the decision making process. The interaction rule is formulated as a multinomial logit model, which is calibrated by using a microscopic traffic trajectory dataset obtained from video footage. The ABM is validated against the survey data for the vehicular trajectory patterns, queuing patterns, queue lengths, and discharge rates. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of replicating the observed queue formation process for heterogeneous traffic.
Religion, contraception, and method choice of married women in Ghana.

PubMed

Gyimah, Stephen Obeng; Adjei, Jones K; Takyi, Baffour K

2012-12-01

Using pooled data from the 1998 and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys, this paper investigates the association between religion and contraceptive behavior of married women in Ghana. Guided by the particularized theology and characteristics hypotheses, multinomial logit and complementary log-log models are used to explore denominational differences in contraceptive adoption among currently married women and assess whether the differences could be explained through other characteristics. We found that while there were no differences between women of different Christian faiths, non-Christian women (Muslim and Traditional) were significantly more likely to have never used contraception compared with Christian women. Similar observations were made on current use of contraception, although the differences were greatly reduced in the multivariate models.
Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

2008-09-01

This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.
Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena

2006-01-01

Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.
Meta-analysis data for 104 Energy-Economy Nexus papers.

PubMed

Hajko, Vladimír; Kociánová, Agáta; Buličková, Martina

2017-06-01

The data presented here are manually encoded characteristics of research papers in the area of Energy-Economy Nexus (empirical investigation of Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth) that describe the methods, samples, and other details related to the individual estimations done in the examined empirical papers. Data cover papers indexed by Scopus, published in economic journals, written in English, after year 2000. In addition, papers were manually filtered to only those that deal with Energy-Economy Nexus investigation and have at least 10 citations at (at the time of query - November 2015). This data are to be used to conduct meta-analysis - associated dataset was used in Hajko [1]. Early version of the dataset was used for multinomial logit estimation in Master thesis by Kociánová [2].
Associations of financial stressors and physical intimate partner violence perpetration.

PubMed

Schwab-Reese, Laura M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Parker, Edith

2016-12-01

Contextual factors, such as exposure to stressors, may be antecedents to IPV perpetration. These contextual factors may be amenable to modification through intervention and prevention. However, few studies have examined specific contextual factors. To begin to address this gap, we examined the associations between financial stressors and three types of physical IPV perpetration. This analysis used data from Wave IV of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We used logistic regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and each type of IPV (minor, severe, causing injury), and multinomial logit regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and patterns of co-occurring types of IPV perpetration (only minor; only severe; minor and severe; minor, severe, and causing injury; compared with no perpetration). Fewer men perpetrated threats/minor physical IPV (6.7 %) or severe physical IPV (3.4 %) compared with women (11.4 % and 8.8 %, respectively). However, among physical IPV perpetrators, a higher percentage of men (32.0 %) than women (21.0 %) reported their partner was injured as a result of the IPV. In logistic regression models of each type of IPV perpetration, both the number of stressors experienced and several types of financial stressors were associated with perpetrating each type of IPV. Utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and no phone service were associated with increased odds of perpetrating each form of IPV in adjusted analysis. Eviction was associated with perpetrating severe physical IPV but not threats/minor IPV or IPV causing injury. In multinomial logit regression comparing patterns of IPV perpetration to perpetrating no physical IPV, the relationships of financial stressors were less consistent. Food insecurity was associated with perpetrating only minor physical IPV. Comparatively, overall number of financial stressors and four types of financial stressors (utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and disconnected phone service) were associated with perpetrating all three forms of physical IPV. Combined with prior research, our results suggested interventions to improve financial well-being may be a novel way to reduce physical IPV perpetration.
Associations of financial stressors and physical intimate partner violence perpetration.

PubMed

Schwab-Reese, Laura M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Parker, Edith

Contextual factors, such as exposure to stressors, may be antecedents to IPV perpetration. These contextual factors may be amenable to modification through intervention and prevention. However, few studies have examined specific contextual factors. To begin to address this gap, we examined the associations between financial stressors and three types of physical IPV perpetration. This analysis used data from Wave IV of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We used logistic regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and each type of IPV (minor, severe, causing injury), and multinomial logit regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and patterns of co-occurring types of IPV perpetration ( only minor; only severe; minor and severe; minor, severe, and causing injury; compared with no perpetration). Fewer men perpetrated threats/minor physical IPV (6.7 %) or severe physical IPV (3.4 %) compared with women (11.4 % and 8.8 %, respectively). However, among physical IPV perpetrators, a higher percentage of men (32.0 %) than women (21.0 %) reported their partner was injured as a result of the IPV. In logistic regression models of each type of IPV perpetration, both the number of stressors experienced and several types of financial stressors were associated with perpetrating each type of IPV. Utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and no phone service were associated with increased odds of perpetrating each form of IPV in adjusted analysis. Eviction was associated with perpetrating severe physical IPV but not threats/minor IPV or IPV causing injury. In multinomial logit regression comparing patterns of IPV perpetration to perpetrating no physical IPV, the relationships of financial stressors were less consistent. Food insecurity was associated with perpetrating only minor physical IPV. Comparatively, overall number of financial stressors and four types of financial stressors (utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and disconnected phone service) were associated with perpetrating all three forms of physical IPV. Combined with prior research, our results suggested interventions to improve financial well-being may be a novel way to reduce physical IPV perpetration.
An ethnobiological study in Kala Chitta hills of Pothwar region, Pakistan: multinomial logit specification

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This paper constitutes an important ethnobiological survey in the context of utilizing biological resources by residents of Kala Chitta hills of Pothwar region, Pakistan. The fundamental aim of this research endeavour was to catalogue and analyse the indigenous knowledge of native community about plants and animals. The study is distinctive in the sense to explore both ethnobotanical and ethnozoological aspects of indigenous culture, and exhibits novelty, being based on empirical approach of Multinomial Logit Specifications (MLS) for examining ethnobotanical and ethnozoological uses of specific plants and animals. Methods To document the ethnobiological knowledge, the survey was conducted during 2011–12 by employing a semi-structured questionnaire and thus 54 informants were interviewed. Plant and animal specimens were collected, photographed and properly identified. Distribution of plants and animals were explored by descriptive and graphical examination. MLS were further incorporated to identify the probability of occurrence of diversified utilization of plants and animals in multipurpose domains. Results Traditional uses of 91 plant and 65 animal species were reported. Data analysis revealed more medicinal use of plants and animals than all other use categories. MLS findings are also in line with these proportional configurations. They reveal that medicinal and food consumption of underground and perennial plants was more as compared to aerial and annual categories of plants. Likewise, medicinal utilization of wild animals and domestic animals were more commonly observed as food items. However, invertebrates are more in the domain of medicinal and food utilization. Also carnivores are fairly common in the use of medicine while herbivores are in the category of food consumption. Conclusion This study empirically scans a good chunk of ethnobiological knowledge and depicts its strong connection with indigenous traditions. It is important to make local residents beware of conservation status of species and authentication of this knowledge needs to be done in near future. Moreover, Statistically significant findings impart novelty in the existing literature in the field of ethnobiology. Future conservation, phytochemical and pharmacological studies are recommended on these identified plants and animals in order to use them in a more sustainable and effective way. PMID:24467739
Exploratory Analysis of Survey Data for Understanding Adoption of Novel Aerospace Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Lauren M.

In order to meet the increasing demand for manned and unmanned flight, the air transportation system must constantly evolve. As new technologies or operational procedures are conceived, we must determine their effect on humans in the system. In this research, we introduce a strategy to assess how individuals or organizations would respond to a novel aerospace system. We employ the most appropriate and sophisticated exploratory analysis techniques on the survey data to generate insight and identify significant variables. We employ three different methods for eliciting views from individuals or organizations who are affected by a system: an opinion survey, a stated preference survey, and structured interviews. We conduct an opinion survey of both the general public and stakeholders in the unmanned aircraft industry to assess their knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding unmanned aircraft. We complete a statistical analysis of the multiple-choice questions using multinomial logit and multivariate probit models and conduct qualitative analysis on free-text questions. We next present a stated preference survey of the general public on the use of an unmanned aircraft package delivery service. We complete a statistical analysis of the questions using multinomial logit, ordered probit, linear regression, and negative binomial models. Finally, we discuss structured interviews conducted on stakeholders from ANSPs and airlines operating in the North Atlantic. We describe how these groups may choose to adopt a new technology (space-based ADS-B) or operational procedure (in-trail procedures). We discuss similarities and differences between the stakeholders groups, the benefits and costs of in-trail procedures and space-based ADS-B as reported by the stakeholders, and interdependencies between the groups interviewed. To demonstrate the value of the data we generated, we explore how the findings from the surveys can be used to better characterize uncertainty in the cost-benefit analysis of aerospace systems. We demonstrate how the findings from the opinion and stated preference surveys can be infused into the cost-benefit analysis of an unmanned aircraft delivery system. We also demonstrate how to apply the findings from the interviews to characterize uncertainty in the estimation of the benefits of space-based ADS-B.
Assessment of Malawian Mothers’ Malaria Knowledge, Healthcare Preferences and Timeliness of Seeking Fever Treatments for Children Under Five

PubMed Central

Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel

2015-01-01

Malaria is one of the major public health problems in Malawi, contributing to the majority of morbidity and mortality among children under five. Ignorance of malaria symptoms results in delayed treatment, which often degenerates into fatal emergencies. This study analyzed the impact of maternal malaria knowledge on healthcare preferences and timeliness of treating children with reported fever. The Malaria Indicator Survey data for 2012, which were adequately weighted, were analyzed using multinomial logit and Poisson regression models. The results showed low maternal average years of formal education (3.52) and average mothers’ age was 27.97 years. Majority of the women (84.98%) associated fever with malaria, while 44.17% associated it with chilling. Also, 54.42% and 32.43% of the children were treated for fever on the same day and the following day that fever started, respectively. About 9.70% paid for fever treatment from their regular incomes, while 51.38% sought treatment from either public or private health centers. Multinomial Logit regression results showed that relative to using of other treatments, probabilities of selecting private hospitals and public health centers increased with age of the household heads, resident in urban areas, mothers’ years of education, number of days taken off for treatment, paying medical bills from regular, occasional and borrowed incomes, and knowledge of diarrhea and shivering as symptoms of malaria. In the Poisson regression results, timeliness of seeking treatment was significantly enhanced by knowledge of fever as malaria symptom, residence in northern and central regions of Malawi and use of income from sale of assets to pay medical bills (p < 0.10).However, delays in treating children was motivated by age of the household heads, number of days taken off to care for sick child and usage of regular, borrowed and other incomes to pay medical bills. (p < 0.05). It was concluded that efficiency of public sector in treating malaria holds significant prospects for fighting malaria in Malawi. However, adequate efforts should be channeled in enhancing the knowledge of women on malaria symptoms, among others. PMID:25584420
Assessment of Malawian mothers' malaria knowledge, healthcare preferences and timeliness of seeking fever treatments for children under five.

PubMed

Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel

2015-01-09

Malaria is one of the major public health problems in Malawi, contributing to the majority of morbidity and mortality among children under five. Ignorance of malaria symptoms results in delayed treatment, which often degenerates into fatal emergencies. This study analyzed the impact of maternal malaria knowledge on healthcare preferences and timeliness of treating children with reported fever. The Malaria Indicator Survey data for 2012, which were adequately weighted, were analyzed using multinomial logit and Poisson regression models. The results showed low maternal average years of formal education (3.52) and average mothers' age was 27.97 years. Majority of the women (84.98%) associated fever with malaria, while 44.17% associated it with chilling. Also, 54.42% and 32.43% of the children were treated for fever on the same day and the following day that fever started, respectively. About 9.70% paid for fever treatment from their regular incomes, while 51.38% sought treatment from either public or private health centers. Multinomial Logit regression results showed that relative to using of other treatments, probabilities of selecting private hospitals and public health centers increased with age of the household heads, resident in urban areas, mothers' years of education, number of days taken off for treatment, paying medical bills from regular, occasional and borrowed incomes, and knowledge of diarrhea and shivering as symptoms of malaria. In the Poisson regression results, timeliness of seeking treatment was significantly enhanced by knowledge of fever as malaria symptom, residence in northern and central regions of Malawi and use of income from sale of assets to pay medical bills (p < 0.10).However, delays in treating children was motivated by age of the household heads, number of days taken off to care for sick child and usage of regular, borrowed and other incomes to pay medical bills. (p < 0.05). It was concluded that efficiency of public sector in treating malaria holds significant prospects for fighting malaria in Malawi. However, adequate efforts should be channeled in enhancing the knowledge of women on malaria symptoms, among others.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution ofmore » importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.« less
[Depression Symptoms of Mothers and Fathers of Persons with Schizophrenia].

PubMed

Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; König, Daniel; Unger, Annemarie; Klug, Günter; Soulier, Nathalie; Freidl, Marion; Friedrich, Fabian

2016-05-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate if depression symptomatology of patients' parents is predicted by the symptoms of schizophrenia. 101 mothers and 101 fathers of the same patients suffering from schizophrenia were included into this study. Parents filled in the "Beck Depression Inventory". Patients were assessed by means of the "Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale". For statistical analyses a Multidimensional Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Model was applied. We found a significant positive association between negative symptoms and depression severity of fathers and mothers. Further, a significant positive association between positive symptoms and depression severity of fathers, but not of mothers was found. Our results show that depression of mothers and of fathers is associated with symptoms of schizophrenia even when controlling for potential predictors. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women’s Return to Work

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements. PMID:22685365
The demand for child curative care in two rural thanas of Bangladesh: effect of income and women's employment.

PubMed

Levin, A; Rahman, M A; Quayyum, Z; Routh, S; Barkat-e-Khuda

2001-01-01

This paper seeks to investigate the determinants of child health care seeking behaviours in rural Bangladesh. In particular, the effects of income, women's access to income, and the prices of obtaining child health care are examined. Data on the use of child curative care were collected in two rural areas of Bangladesh--Abhoynagar Thana of Jessore District and Mirsarai Thana of Chittagong District--in March 1997. In estimating the use of child curative care, the nested multinomial logit specification was used. The results of the analysis indicate that a woman's involvement in a credit union or income generation affected the likelihood that curative child care was used. Household wealth decreased the likelihood that the child had an illness episode and affected the likelihood that curative child care was sought. Among facility characteristics, travel time was statistically significant and was negatively associated with the use of a provider.
Determinants of edible oil choice by households in Tamil Nadu, India.

PubMed

Govindaraj, Gurrappa Naidu; Suryaprakash, Satrasala

2013-01-01

This study investigated the major determinants that influence the choice of edible oils by households across geographical zones in Tamil Nadu state, India. The primary data from 1,000 sample households were collected using a structured pre-tested questionnaire. Multinomial logit model was fitted for determining the factors. The results revealed that education, income, and households with a history of health problems were the important determinants that influenced the choice of low-saturated-fat oils, whereas the larger size households and weaker section households preferred low-priced palm oil. Income and education levels in Tamil Nadu state surged ahead in recent years. In consonance to these changes the nontraditional low-saturated fat containing sunflower oil demand will increase in many folds in coming years. Hence, besides traditional oils, sunflower oil production has to be stepped up on "mission mode" through appropriate production programs to meet the present and future edible oil demand domestically.
Performance of the likelihood ratio difference (G2 Diff) test for detecting unidimensionality in applications of the multidimensional Rasch model.

PubMed

Harrell-Williams, Leigh; Wolfe, Edward W

2014-01-01

Previous research has investigated the influence of sample size, model misspecification, test length, ability distribution offset, and generating model on the likelihood ratio difference test in applications of item response models. This study extended that research to the evaluation of dimensionality using the multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model (MRCMLM). Logistic regression analysis of simulated data reveal that sample size and test length have a large effect on the capacity of the LR difference test to correctly identify unidimensionality, with shorter tests and smaller sample sizes leading to smaller Type I error rates. Higher levels of simulated misfit resulted in fewer incorrect decisions than data with no or little misfit. However, Type I error rates indicate that the likelihood ratio difference test is not suitable under any of the simulated conditions for evaluating dimensionality in applications of the MRCMLM.
Social influence, agent heterogeneity and the emergence of the urban informal sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Díaz, César; Moreno-Monroy, Ana I.

2012-02-01

We develop an agent-based computational model in which the urban informal sector acts as a buffer where rural migrants can earn some income while queuing for higher paying modern-sector jobs. In the model, the informal sector emerges as a result of rural-urban migration decisions of heterogeneous agents subject to social influence in the form of neighboring effects of varying strengths. Besides using a multinomial logit choice model that allows for agent idiosyncrasy, explicit agent heterogeneity is introduced in the form of socio-demographic characteristics preferred by modern-sector employers. We find that different combinations of the strength of social influence and the socio-economic composition of the workforce lead to very different urbanization and urban informal sector shares. In particular, moderate levels of social influence and a large proportion of rural inhabitants with preferred socio-demographic characteristics are conducive to a higher urbanization rate and a larger informal sector.
The relationship between organizational culture and performance in acute hospitals.

PubMed

Jacobs, Rowena; Mannion, Russell; Davies, Huw T O; Harrison, Stephen; Konteh, Fred; Walshe, Kieran

2013-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between senior management team culture and organizational performance in English acute hospitals (NHS Trusts) over three time periods between 2001/2002 and 2007/2008. We use a validated culture rating instrument, the Competing Values Framework, to measure senior management team culture. Organizational performance is assessed using a wide range of routinely collected indicators. We examine the associations between organizational culture and performance using ordered probit and multinomial logit models. We find that organizational culture varies across hospitals and over time, and this variation is at least in part associated in consistent and predictable ways with a variety of organizational characteristics and routine measures of performance. Moreover, hospitals are moving towards more competitive culture archetypes which mirror the current policy context, though with a stronger blend of cultures. The study provides evidence for a relationship between culture and performance in hospital settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Customization in Prescribing for Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Hodgkin, Dominic; Volpe-Vartanian, Joanna; Merrick, Elizabeth L.; Horgan, Constance M.; Nierenberg, Andrew A.; Frank, Richard G.; Lee, Sue

2011-01-01

For many disorders, patient heterogeneity requires physicians to customize their treatment to each patient’s needs. We test for the existence of customization in physicians’ prescribing for bipolar disorder, using data from a naturalistic clinical effectiveness trial of bipolar disorder treatment (STEP-BD), which did not constrain physician prescribing. Multinomial logit is used to model the physician’s choice among five combinations of drug classes. We find that our observed measure of the patient’s clinical status played only a limited role in the choice among drug class combinations, even for conditions such as mania that are expected to affect class choice. However, treatment of a patient with given characteristics differed widely depending on which physician was seen. The explanatory power of the model was low. There was variation within each physician’s prescribing, but the results do not suggest a high degree of customization in physicians’ prescribing, based on our measure of clinical status. PMID:21506194
Customization in prescribing for bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Hodgkin, Dominic; Volpe-Vartanian, Joanna; Merrick, Elizabeth L; Horgan, Constance M; Nierenberg, Andrew A; Frank, Richard G; Lee, Sue

2012-06-01

For many disorders, patient heterogeneity requires physicians to customize their treatment to each patient's needs. We test for the existence of customization in physicians' prescribing for bipolar disorder, using data from a naturalistic clinical effectiveness trial of bipolar disorder treatment (STEP-BD), which did not constrain physician prescribing. Multinomial logit is used to model the physician's choice among five combinations of drug classes. We find that our observed measure of the patient's clinical status played only a limited role in the choice among drug class combinations, even for conditions such as mania that are expected to affect class choice. However, treatment of a patient with given characteristics differed widely depending on which physician was seen. The explanatory power of the model was low. There was variation within each physician's prescribing, but the results do not suggest a high degree of customization in physicians' prescribing, based on our measure of clinical status. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women's Return to Work.

PubMed

Schott, Whitney

2012-02-01

Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements.
Utilization of infertility services: how much does money matter?

PubMed

Farley Ordovensky Staniec, J; Webb, Natalie J

2007-06-01

To estimate the effects of financial access and other individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment and the choice of treatment type. The 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We use a binomial logit model to estimate the effects of financial access and individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment. We then use a multinomial logit model to estimate the differential effects of these variables across treatment types. This study analyzes the subset of 1,210 women who meet the definition of infertile or subfecund from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We find that income, insurance coverage, age, and parity (number of previous births) all significantly affect the probability of seeking infertility treatment; however, the effect of these variables on choice of treatment type varies significantly. Neither income nor insurance influences the probability of seeking advice, a relatively low cost, low yield treatment. At the other end of the spectrum, the choice to pursue assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs)-a much more expensive but potentially more productive option-is highly influenced by income, but merely having private insurance has no significant effect. In the middle of the spectrum are treatment options such as testing, surgery, and medications, for which "financial access" increases their probability of selection. Our results illustrate that for the sample of infertile of subfecund women of childbearing age studied, and considering their options, financial access to infertility treatment does matter.
Treatment preferences of originator versus biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists.

PubMed

Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Lovász, Barbara D; Golovics, Petra A; Brodszky, Valentin; Péntek, Márta; Rencz, Fanni; Lakatos, Péter L

2016-01-01

To explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease. Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator), 2) severity of disease, 3) availability of continuous medicine supply, 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator, 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only, 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Men, senior consultants, working in inflammatory bowel disease center and treating more patients were more likely willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in case of biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% versus 11% for new patients, and 44% versus 56% for patients already treated with biological. For gastroenterologist, the continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.
Levels and patterns of physical activity and sedentary time among superdiverse adolescents in East London: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Curry, Whitney B; Dagkas, Symeon; Wilson, Marcia

2017-06-01

Little is known about the physical activity (PA) and sedentary time (ST) habits of adolescents from superdiverse communities in the UK. The objectives of this study are to examine and report the patterns of PA/ST among adolescents in East London living in superdiverse communities, to identify opportunities/barriers to PA and inform policy/practice. A total of 1260 young people (aged 11-13 years) from seven secondary schools in East London completed a questionnaire on PA/ST over the past seven days as part of the Newham's Every Child a Sports Person (NECaSP) intervention. Socio-demographic and anthropometric data were obtained. Significance tests were conducted to determine differences between socio-demographic and anthropometric predictors and PA/ST. Multinomial logit regression was used to explore the effects of ethnicity, sex, and body mass index (BMI) on PA levels. Males were significantly more likely to engage in PA at least five times during school in the past week (U = 5.07, z = -11.76, p < .05). Obese participants were less likely to report engaging in PA five times in the past week (U = 4.11, z =-1.17, p < .05). Black Caribbean girls (U = 5.08, z = -1.92, p < .05) were significantly more likely to report engaging in no activity. Multinomial logit regression analyses revealed that girls with higher BMI were less likely to engage in PA at least four times after school in the last week than boys (b = .11, Wald X 2 (1) = 9.81, p < .01). Walking (36.4%), jogging/running (29.9%), and football (28%) were the most frequently reported activities. Engaging girls in PA during and after school is important and making sports clubs and activities available and attractive to this target group may help increase engagement in PA and reduce ST. Findings support the need for more sex-specific and culturally responsive pedagogy in schools with curricula that respects diversity and individuality and has meaning and value amongst superdiverse young people. Finally, we need to extend current work presented and provide substantial evidence of the ways young people from minority ethnic groups process and act on the public health policy and the ways they understand and enact PA.
Discrete choice experiments in pharmacy: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Naik-Panvelkar, Pradnya; Armour, Carol; Saini, Bandana

2013-02-01

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) have been widely used to elicit patient preferences for various healthcare services and interventions. The aim of our study was to conduct an in-depth scoping review of the literature and provide a current overview of the progressive application of DCEs within the field of pharmacy. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ECONLIT) were searched (January 1990-August 2011) to identify published English language studies using DCEs within the pharmacy context. Data were abstracted with respect to DCE methodology and application to pharmacy. Our search identified 12 studies. The DCE methodology was utilised to elicit preferences for different aspects of pharmacy products, therapy or services. Preferences were elicited from either patients or pharmacists, with just two studies incorporating the views of both. Most reviewed studies examined preferences for process-related or provider-related aspects with a lesser focus on health outcomes. Monetary attributes were considered to be important by most patients and pharmacists in the studies reviewed. Logit, probit or multinomial logit models were most commonly employed for estimation. Our study showed that the pharmacy profession has adopted the DCE methodology consistent with the general health DCEs although the number of studies is quite limited. Future studies need to examine preferences of both patients and providers for particular products or disease-state management services. Incorporation of health outcome attributes in the design, testing for external validity and the incorporation of DCE results in economic evaluation framework to inform pharmacy policy remain important areas for future research. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.
Contributing factors to vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity under rainfall.

PubMed

Jung, Soyoung; Jang, Kitae; Yoon, Yoonjin; Kang, Sanghyeok

2014-09-01

This study combined vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity estimations to examine factor impacts on Wisconsin highway safety in rainy weather. Because of data deficiency, the real-time water film depth, the car-following distance, and the vertical curve grade were estimated with available data sources and a GIS analysis to capture rainy weather conditions at the crash location and time. Using a negative binomial regression for crash frequency estimation, the average annual daily traffic per lane, the interaction between the posted speed limit change and the existence of an off-ramp, and the interaction between the travel lane number change and the pavement surface material change were found to increase the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes under rainfall. However, more average daily rainfall per month and a wider left shoulder were identified as factors that decrease the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes. In the crash severity estimation using the multinomial logit model that outperformed the ordered logit model, the travel lane number, the interaction between the travel lane number and the slow grade, the deep water film, and the rear-end collision type were more likely to increase the likelihood of injury crashes under rainfall compared with crashes involving only property damage. As an exploratory data analysis, this study provides insight into potential strategies for rainy weather highway safety improvement, specifically, the following weather-sensitive strategies: road design and ITS implementation for drivers' safety awareness under rainfall. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The two faces of enhancing utilization of health-care services: determinants of patient initiation and retention in rural Burkina Faso.

PubMed Central

Mugisha, Frederick; Bocar, Kouyate; Dong, Hengjin; Chepng'eno, Gloria; Sauerborn, Rainer

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To explore the factors that determine whether a patient will initiate treatment within a system of health-care services, and the factors that determine whether the patient will be retained in the chosen system, in Nouna, rural Burkina Faso. METHODS: The data used were pooled from four rounds of a household survey conducted in Nouna, rural Burkina Faso. The ongoing demographic surveillance system provided a sampling framework for this survey in which 800 households were sampled using a two-stage cluster sampling procedure. More than one treatment episode was observed for a single episode of illness per patient. The multinomial logit model was used to explore the determinants of patient initiation to systems of modern, traditional and home treatment, and a binary logit model was used to explore the determinants of patient retention within the chosen health-care provider system. FINDINGS: The results suggest that the determinants of patient initiation and their subsequent retention are different. Household income, education, urban residence and expected competency of the provider are positive predictors of initiation, but not of retention, for modern health-care services. Only perceived quality of care positively predicted retention in modern health-care services. CONCLUSION: Interventions focusing on patient initiation and patient retention are likely to be different. Policies directed at enhancing initiation for modern health-care services would primarily focus on reducing financial barriers, while those directed at increasing retention would primarily focus on attributes that improve the perceived quality of care. PMID:15375446
The prevalences of impaired fasting glucose and diabetes mellitus in working age men of North China: Anshan Worker Health Survey.

PubMed

Liu, Lei; Zhou, Chuang; Du, Hang; Zhang, Kai; Huang, Desheng; Wu, Jingyang

2014-04-29

To investigate the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and total diabetes mellitus (DM) including known diabetes and newly diagnosed diabetes in working age men of North China. A cross-section study was conducted at health medical center of Ansteel Group Hospital in Anshan city of China. 37,345 males between 20-60 years of age were recruited in this study. Age-standardized prevalence of IFG and total DM in these working age men were 25.3% and 8.4%, respectively. The prevalence of IFG and total DM increased, as the age progressed. After multinomial logit analysis, age, systolic blood pressure, drinking, smoking, overweight and obesity, total cholesterol, triglycerides, serum creatinine and blood urea nitrogen were independent risk factors for both IFG and DM. The prevalence rate of IFG in Anshan male workers was higher compared with mainland China overall. Diabetes-related education and popularization of DM prevention programs should be actively carried out with age increasing.
Foot placement during error and pedal applications in naturalistic driving.

PubMed

Wu, Yuqing; Boyle, Linda Ng; McGehee, Daniel; Roe, Cheryl A; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

2017-02-01

Data from a naturalistic driving study was used to examine foot placement during routine foot pedal movements and possible pedal misapplications. The study included four weeks of observations from 30 drivers, where pedal responses were recorded and categorized. The foot movements associated with pedal misapplications and errors were the focus of the analyses. A random forest algorithm was used to predict the pedal application types based the video observations, foot placements, drivers' characteristics, drivers' cognitive function levels and anthropometric measurements. A repeated multinomial logit model was then used to estimate the likelihood of the foot placement given various driver characteristics and driving scenarios. The findings showed that prior foot location, the drivers' seat position, and the drive sequence were all associated with incorrect foot placement during an event. The study showed that there is a potential to develop a driver assistance system that can reduce the likelihood of a pedal error. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Contraceptive practice in China: 1970-2004.

PubMed

Wang, Cuntong

2015-03-01

Using large-scale data from the national conventional statistics and nationally representative sample surveys, the current study aims to assess the level, mode, and determinants of modern contraceptive use from 1970 to 2004 among married couples aged 20 to 49 years in China. A relatively stable Chinese mode of contraception has been established and maintained since the 1980s, characterized by prominent, long-acting contraceptive use and the highest overall prevalence in the world during the past 3 decades. In recent years, the composition of contraceptive use has changed, characterized by the increasing use of the intrauterine device and short-acting methods and a drastic decrease in male and female sterilization. However, the dominance of the long-acting methods has not undergone substantial change. The results from a multinomial logit model employed in this study indicate that family planning policy and socioeconomic and demographic factors jointly influence contraceptive choice. In particular, contraceptive choice is closely associated with the strength of family planning policy in China. © 2011 APJPH.
Transitions between states of labor-force participation among older Israelis.

PubMed

Achdut, Leah; Tur-Sinai, Aviad; Troitsky, Rita

2015-03-01

The study examines the labor-force behavior of Israelis at older ages, focusing on the determinants of the transitions between states of labor-force participation between 2005 and 2010. The study uses panel data from the first two waves of the SHARE-Israel longitudinal survey. A multinomial logit model is used to examine the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, health state, and economic resources on labor-force transitions of people aged 50-67. The results emphasize the role of age and poor health in "pushing" older people out of the labor force or "keeping" them there. Spouse's participation is found to encourage individuals to leave the labor force or to refrain from joining it. However, living with a participating spouse is negatively associated with staying out of the labor force, consistent with the dominance of the complementarity of leisure effect found in the literature. Wealth as an economic resource available to individuals for retirement is also found to encourage individuals to leave the labor force or to refrain from joining it.
Gender and changing generational relations: spouse choice in Indonesia.

PubMed

Malhotra, A

1991-11-01

Many Asian societies are undergoing a nuptiality transition that is not only tied integrally to other aspects of family organization, but is also often more complex than standard studies of female age at marriage can reveal. To comprehend some of this complexity, we focus on the patterns of spouse choice for both men and women in central Java. The extent of parental control over mate selection is examined for change over time, gender differences, and likely determinants, including family class, education, premarital work, and residence. It is argued that the current marriage transition in Indonesia reflects both gender and generational hierarchies in the Javanese family system. The analysis is conducted using a multinomial logit model; in general, it yields results strongly supportive of the argument that the determinants of spouse selection differ by gender. The results also show that although there is a dramatic shift towards self-choice marriages, it is occurring within the context of historical and institutional factors specific to Javanese society.

The effects of mandatory health insurance on equity in access to outpatient care in Indonesia.

PubMed

Hidayat, Budi; Thabrany, Hasbullah; Dong, Hengjin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2004-09-01

This paper examines the effects of mandatory health insurance on access and equity in access to public and private outpatient care in Indonesia. Data from the second round of the 1997 Indonesian Family Life Survey were used. We adopted the concentration index as a measure of equity, and this was calculated from actual data and from predicted probability of outpatient-care use saved from a multinomial logit regression. The study found that a mandatory insurance scheme for civil servants (Askes) had a strongly positive impact on access to public outpatient care, while a mandatory insurance scheme for private employees (Jamsostek) had a positive impact on access to both public and private outpatient care. The greatest effects of Jamsostek were observed amongst poor beneficiaries. A substantial increase in access will be gained by expanding insurance to the whole population. However, neither Askes nor Jamsostek had a positive impact on equity. Policy implications are discussed.
Making difficult decisions: the role of quality of care in choosing a nursing home.

PubMed

Pesis-Katz, Irena; Phelps, Charles E; Temkin-Greener, Helena; Spector, William D; Veazie, Peter; Mukamel, Dana B

2013-05-01

We investigated how quality of care affects choosing a nursing home. We examined nursing home choice in California, Ohio, New York, and Texas in 2001, a period before the federal Nursing Home Compare report card was published. Thus, consumers were less able to observe clinical quality or clinical quality was masked. We modeled nursing home choice by estimating a conditional multinomial logit model. In all states, consumers were more likely to choose nursing homes of high hotel services quality but not clinical care quality. Nursing home choice was also significantly associated with shorter distance from prior residence, not-for-profit status, and larger facility size. In the absence of quality report cards, consumers choose a nursing home on the basis of the quality dimensions that are easy for them to observe, evaluate, and apply to their situation. Future research should focus on identifying the quality information that offers the most value added to consumers.
Making Difficult Decisions: The Role of Quality of Care in Choosing a Nursing Home

PubMed Central

Phelps, Charles E.; Temkin-Greener, Helena; Spector, William D.; Veazie, Peter; Mukamel, Dana B.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We investigated how quality of care affects choosing a nursing home. Methods. We examined nursing home choice in California, Ohio, New York, and Texas in 2001, a period before the federal Nursing Home Compare report card was published. Thus, consumers were less able to observe clinical quality or clinical quality was masked. We modeled nursing home choice by estimating a conditional multinomial logit model. Results. In all states, consumers were more likely to choose nursing homes of high hotel services quality but not clinical care quality. Nursing home choice was also significantly associated with shorter distance from prior residence, not-for-profit status, and larger facility size. Conclusions. In the absence of quality report cards, consumers choose a nursing home on the basis of the quality dimensions that are easy for them to observe, evaluate, and apply to their situation. Future research should focus on identifying the quality information that offers the most value added to consumers. PMID:23488519
The morality of attitudes toward nanotechnology: about God, techno-scientific progress, and interfering with nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandermoere, Frederic; Blanchemanche, Sandrine; Bieberstein, Andrea; Marette, Stephan; Roosen, Jutta

2010-02-01

Using survey data, we examine public attitudes toward and awareness of nanotechnology in Germany ( N = 750). First, it is shown that a majority of the people are still not familiar with nanotechnology. In addition, diffusion of information about nanotechnology thus far mostly seems to reach men and people with a relative higher educational background. Also, pro-science and technology views are positively related with nanotech familiarity. Results further show that a majority of the people have an indifferent, ambiguous, or non-attitude toward nanotechnology. Multinomial logit analyses further reveal that nanotech familiarity is positively related with people's attitudes. In addition, it is shown that traditional religiosity is unrelated to attitudes and that individual religiosity is weakly related to nanotechnology attitudes. However, moral covariates other than religiosity seem of major importance. In particular, our results show that more negative views on technological and scientific progress as well as more holistic views about the relation between people and the environment increase the likelihood of having a negative attitude toward nanotechnology.
Korean, Japanese, and Chinese populations featured similar genes encoding drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters: a DMET Plus microarray assessment.

PubMed

Yi, SoJeong; An, Hyungmi; Lee, Howard; Lee, Sangin; Ieiri, Ichiro; Lee, Youngjo; Cho, Joo-Youn; Hirota, Takeshi; Fukae, Masato; Yoshida, Kenji; Nagatsuka, Shinichiro; Kimura, Miyuki; Irie, Shin; Sugiyama, Yuichi; Shin, Dong Wan; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Chung, Jae-Yong; Yu, Kyung-Sang; Jang, In-Jin

2014-10-01

Interethnic differences in genetic polymorphism in genes encoding drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters are one of the major factors that cause ethnic differences in drug response. This study aimed to investigate genetic polymorphisms in genes involved in drug metabolism, transport, and excretion among Korean, Japanese, and Chinese populations, the three major East Asian ethnic groups. The frequencies of 1936 variants representing 225 genes encoding drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters were determined from 786 healthy participants (448 Korean, 208 Japanese, and 130 Chinese) using the Affymetrix Drug-Metabolizing Enzymes and Transporters Plus microarray. To compare allele or genotype frequencies in the high-dimensional data among the three East Asian ethnic groups, multiple testing, principal component analysis (PCA), and regularized multinomial logit model through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were used. On microarray analysis, 1071 of 1936 variants (>50% of markers) were found to be monomorphic. In a large number of genetic variants, the fixation index and Pearson's correlation coefficient of minor allele frequencies were less than 0.034 and greater than 0.95, respectively, among the three ethnic groups. PCA identified 47 genetic variants with multiple testing, but was unable to discriminate ethnic groups by the first three components. Multinomial least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis identified 269 genetic variants that showed different frequencies among the three ethnic groups. However, none of those variants distinguished between the three ethnic groups during subsequent PCA. Korean, Japanese, and Chinese populations are not pharmacogenetically distant from one another, at least with regard to drug disposition, metabolism, and elimination.
Calculating Preference Weights for the Labor and Delivery Index: A Discrete Choice Experiment on Women's Birth Experiences.

PubMed

Gärtner, Fania R; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Stiggelbout, Anne M; Rijnders, Marlies E; Freeman, Liv M; Middeldorp, Johanna M; Bloemenkamp, Kitty W M; de Miranda, Esteriek; van den Akker-van Marle, M Elske

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to calculate preference weights for the Labor and Delivery Index (LADY-X) to make it suitable as a utility measure for perinatal care studies. In an online discrete choice experiment, 18 pairs of hypothetical scenarios were presented to respondents, from which they had to choose a preferred option. The scenarios describe the birth experience in terms of the seven LADY-X attributes. A D-efficient discrete choice experiment design with priors based on a small sample (N = 110) was applied. Two samples were gathered, women who had recently given birth and subjects from the general population. Both samples were analyzed separately using a panel mixed logit (MMNL) model. Using the panel mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model results and accounting for preference heterogeneity, we calculated the average preference weights for LADY-X attribute levels. These were transformed to represent a utility score between 0 and 1, with 0 representing the worst and 1 representing the best birth experience. In total, 1097 women who had recently given birth and 367 subjects from the general population participated. Greater value was placed on differences between bottom and middle attribute levels than on differences between middle and top levels. The attributes that resulted in larger utility increases than the other attributes were "feeling of safety" in the sample of women who had recently given birth and "feeling of safety" and "availability of professionals" in the general population sample. By using the derived preference weights, LADY-X has the potential to be used as a utility measure for perinatal (cost-) effectiveness studies. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Bayesian Inference for the Stereotype Regression Model: Application to a Case-control Study of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jaeil; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Banerjee, Mousumi; Cooney, Kathleen A.

2011-01-01

Summary The stereotype regression model for categorical outcomes, proposed by Anderson (1984) is nested between the baseline category logits and adjacent category logits model with proportional odds structure. The stereotype model is more parsimonious than the ordinary baseline-category (or multinomial logistic) model due to a product representation of the log odds-ratios in terms of a common parameter corresponding to each predictor and category specific scores. The model could be used for both ordered and unordered outcomes. For ordered outcomes, the stereotype model allows more flexibility than the popular proportional odds model in capturing highly subjective ordinal scaling which does not result from categorization of a single latent variable, but are inherently multidimensional in nature. As pointed out by Greenland (1994), an additional advantage of the stereotype model is that it provides unbiased and valid inference under outcome-stratified sampling as in case-control studies. In addition, for matched case-control studies, the stereotype model is amenable to classical conditional likelihood principle, whereas there is no reduction due to sufficiency under the proportional odds model. In spite of these attractive features, the model has been applied less, as there are issues with maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood based testing approaches due to non-linearity and lack of identifiability of the parameters. We present comprehensive Bayesian inference and model comparison procedure for this class of models as an alternative to the classical frequentist approach. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing data from The Flint Men’s Health Study, a case-control study of prostate cancer in African-American men aged 40 to 79 years. We use clinical staging of prostate cancer in terms of Tumors, Nodes and Metastatsis (TNM) as the categorical response of interest. PMID:19731262
Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jin Woo

In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.
Divergent Preferences for HIV Prevention: A Discrete Choice Experiment for Multipurpose HIV Prevention Products in South Africa.

PubMed

Quaife, Matthew; Eakle, Robyn; Cabrera Escobar, Maria A; Vickerman, Peter; Kilbourne-Brook, Maggie; Mvundura, Mercy; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Terris-Prestholt, Fern

2018-01-01

The development of antiretroviral (ARV)-based prevention products has the potential to substantially change the HIV prevention landscape; yet, little is known about how appealing these products will be outside of clinical trials, as compared with the existing options. We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to measure preferences for 5 new products among 4 important populations in the HIV response: adult men and women in the general population (aged 18 to 49 y), adolescent girls (aged 16 to 17 y), and self-identifying female sex workers (aged 18 to 49 y). We interviewed 661 self-reported HIV-negative participants in peri-urban South Africa, who were asked to choose between 3 unique, hypothetical products over 10 choice sets. Data were analyzed using multinomial, latent class and mixed multinomial logit models. HIV protection was the most important attribute to respondents; however, results indicate significant demand among all groups for multipurpose prevention products that offer protection from HIV infection, other STIs, and unwanted pregnancy. All groups demonstrated a strong preference for long-lasting injectable products. There was substantial heterogeneity in preferences within and across population groups. Hypothetical DCE data may not mirror real-world choices, and products will have more attributes in reality than represented in choice tasks. Background data on participants, including sensitive areas of HIV status and condom use, was self-reported. These results suggest that stimulating demand for new HIV prevention products may require a more a nuanced approach than simply developing highly effective products. No single product is likely to be equally attractive or acceptable across different groups. This study strengthens the call for effective and attractive multipurpose prevention products to be deployed as part of a comprehensive combination prevention strategy.
CAP payments and agricultural GHG emissions in Italy. A farm-level assessment.

PubMed

Coderoni, Silvia; Esposti, Roberto

2018-06-15

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is an important external driver of European agricultural production. Nowadays and in its envisioned future structure post-2020, the CAP has among its major objectives tackling climate change, for what concerns both adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, little is known about the link between past CAP reforms and agricultural greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This paper investigates the possible role played by the Fischler Reform (FR) on the agricultural GHG emissions at the farm level. The FR represents a major CAP reform for which data availability allows an ex-post analysis about its actual impacts. The empirical analysis concerns a balanced panel of 6542 Italian Farm Accountancy Data Network observed over years the 2003-2007. Multinomial Logit models are estimated in sequence to express how the farm-level production choices, and the respective emissions, vary over time also in response to CAP expenditure. Results suggest that CAP expenditure had a role in the evolution of the farm-level emissions, though the direction of this effect may differ across farms and deserves further investigation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Residents’ Preferences for Household Kitchen Waste Source Separation Services in Beijing: A Choice Experiment Approach

PubMed Central

Yuan, Yalin; Yabe, Mitsuyasu

2014-01-01

A source separation program for household kitchen waste has been in place in Beijing since 2010. However, the participation rate of residents is far from satisfactory. This study was carried out to identify residents’ preferences based on an improved management strategy for household kitchen waste source separation. We determine the preferences of residents in an ad hoc sample, according to their age level, for source separation services and their marginal willingness to accept compensation for the service attributes. We used a multinomial logit model to analyze the data, collected from 394 residents in Haidian and Dongcheng districts of Beijing City through a choice experiment. The results show there are differences of preferences on the services attributes between young, middle, and old age residents. Low compensation is not a major factor to promote young and middle age residents accept the proposed separation services. However, on average, most of them prefer services with frequent, evening, plastic bag attributes and without instructor. This study indicates that there is a potential for local government to improve the current separation services accordingly. PMID:25546279
Disentangling WTP per QALY data: different analytical approaches, different answers.

PubMed

Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjaer, Trine

2012-03-01

A large random sample of the Danish general population was asked to value health improvements by way of both the time trade-off elicitation technique and willingness-to-pay (WTP) using contingent valuation methods. The data demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity across respondents in their relative valuations on the two scales. This has implications for data analysis. We show that the estimates of WTP per QALY are highly sensitive to the analytical strategy. For both open-ended and dichotomous choice data we demonstrate that choice of aggregated approach (ratios of means) or disaggregated approach (means of ratios) affects estimates markedly as does the interpretation of the constant term (which allows for disproportionality across the two scales) in the regression analyses. We propose that future research should focus on why some respondents are unwilling to trade on the time trade-off scale, on how to interpret the constant value in the regression analyses, and on how best to capture the heterogeneity in preference structures when applying mixed multinomial logit. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Effects of payment changes on trends in post-acute care.

PubMed

Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Colla, Carrie Hoverman; Escarce, José J

2009-08-01

To test how the implementation of new Medicare post-acute payment systems affected the use of inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs), skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), and home health agencies. Medicare acute hospital, IRF, and SNF claims; provider of services file; enrollment file; and Area Resource File data. We used multinomial logit models to measure realized access to post-acute care and to predict how access to alternative sites of care changed in response to prospective payment systems. A file was constructed linking data for elderly Medicare patients discharged from acute care facilities between 1996 and 2003 with a diagnosis of hip fracture, stroke, or lower extremity joint replacement. Although the effects of the payment systems on the use of post-acute care varied, most reduced the use of the site of care they directly affected and boosted the use of alternative sites of care. Payment system changes do not appear to have differentially affected the severely ill. Payment system incentives play a significant role in determining where Medicare beneficiaries receive their post-acute care. Changing these incentives results in shifting of patients between post-acute sites.
An empirical analysis of farm vehicle crash injury severities on Iowa's public road system.

PubMed

Gkritza, Konstantina; Kinzenbaw, Caroline R; Hallmark, Shauna; Hawkins, Neal

2010-07-01

Farm vehicle crashes are a major safety concern for farmers as well as all other users of the public road system in agricultural states. Using data on farm vehicle crashes that occurred on Iowa's public roads between 2004 and 2006, we estimate a multinomial logit model to identify crash-, farm vehicle-, and driver-specific factors that determine farm vehicle crash injury severity outcomes. Estimation findings indicate that there are crash patterns (rear-end manner of collision; single-vehicle crash; farm vehicle crossed the centerline or median) and conditions (obstructed vision and crash in rural area; dry road, dark lighting, speed limit 55 mph or higher, and harvesting season), as well as farm vehicle and driver-contributing characteristics (old farm vehicle, young farm vehicle driver), where targeted intervention can help reduce the severity of crash outcomes. Determining these contributing factors and their effect is the first step to identifying countermeasures and safety strategies in a bid to improve transportation safety for all users on the public road system in Iowa as well as other agricultural states. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Age of smoking initiation among adolescents in Africa.

PubMed

Veeranki, Sreenivas P; John, Rijo M; Ibrahim, Abdallah; Pillendla, Divya; Thrasher, James F; Owusu, Daniel; Ouma, Ahmed E O; Mamudu, Hadii M

2017-01-01

To estimate prevalence and identify correlates of age of smoking initiation among adolescents in Africa. Data (n = 16,519) were obtained from nationally representative Global Youth Tobacco Surveys in nine West African countries. Study outcome was adolescents' age of smoking initiation categorized into six groups: ≤7, 8 or 9, 10 or 11, 12 or 13, 14 or 15 and never-smoker. Explanatory variables included sex, parental or peer smoking behavior, exposure to tobacco industry promotions, and knowledge about smoking harm. Weighted multinomial logit models were conducted to determine correlates associated with adolescents' age of smoking initiation. Age of smoking initiation was as early as ≤7 years; prevalence estimates ranged from 0.7 % in Ghana at 10 or 11 years age to 9.6 % in Cote d'Ivoire at 12 or 13 years age. Males, exposures to parental or peer smoking, and industry promotions were identified as significant correlates. West African policymakers should adopt a preventive approach consistent with the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control to prevent an adolescent from initiating smoking and developing into future regular smokers.
Impact of hedonic evaluation on consumers' preferences for beef attributes including its enrichment with n-3 and CLA fatty acids.

PubMed

Baba, Yasmina; Kallas, Zein; Costa-Font, Montserrat; Gil, José María; Realini, Carolina E

2016-01-01

The impact of hedonic evaluation on consumers' preferences for beef attributes was evaluated (origin, animal diet, fat content, color, price) including its enrichment with omega-3 (n-3) and conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) fatty acids. One group of consumers (n=325) received information about n-3 and CLA, while the other group (n=322) received no information. Consumers conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), using the recently developed Generalized Multinomial Logit model; followed by a blind hedonic evaluation of beef samples, which were identified after tasting, and finally repeated the DCE. Results showed that hedonic evaluation had a significant impact on consumers' preferences, which were similar after tasting for all consumers, with less emphasis on the fat content, color, and origin attributes and greater emphasis on animal diet. Preference for n-3 enriched beef increased, while preference for CLA enriched beef was still not significant after tasting. The information provided had a significant effect on consumers' beef preferences, but no significant impact on beef liking scores. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Blood donation as a public good: an empirical investigation of the free rider problem.

PubMed

Abásolo, Ignacio; Tsuchiya, Aki

2014-04-01

A voluntary blood donation system can be seen as a public good. People can take advantage without contributing and have a free ride. We empirically analyse the extent of free riding and its determinants. Interviews of the general public in Spain (n = 1,211) were used to ask whether respondents were (or have been) regular blood donors and, if not, the reason. Free riders are defined as those who are medically capable to donate blood but do not. In addition, we distinguish four different types of free riding depending on the reason given for not donating. Binomial and multinomial logit models estimate the effect of individual characteristics on the propensity to free ride and the likelihood of the free rider types. Amongst those who are able to donate, there is a 67 % probability of being a free rider. The most likely free rider is female, single, with low/no education and abstained from voting in a recent national election. Gender, age, religious practice, political participation and regional income explain the type of free rider.
Access to Bridge Employment: Who Finds and Who Does Not Find Work After Retirement?

PubMed

Dingemans, Ellen; Henkens, Kène; Solinge, Hanna van

2016-08-01

Empirical studies on the determinants of bridge employment have often neglected the fact that some retirees may be unsuccessful in finding a bridge job. We present an integrative framework that emphasizes socioeconomic factors, health status, social context, and psychological factors to explain why some people fully retired after career exit, some participated in bridge jobs, while others unsuccessfully searched for one. Using Dutch panel data for 1,221 retirees, we estimated a multinomial logit model to explain participation in, and unsuccessful searches for, bridge employment. About 1 in 4 retirees participated in bridge employment after retirement, while 7% searched unsuccessfully for such work. Particularly those who experienced involuntary career exit were found to have a higher probability of being unsuccessful at finding bridge employment. The current study provides evidence for the impact of the social context on postretirement work and suggests a cumulative disadvantage in the work domain in later life. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

PubMed

Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

2013-08-01

We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Determinants of Health Insurance Coverage among People Aged 45 and over in China: Who Buys Public, Private and Multiple Insurance

PubMed Central

Jin, Yinzi; Hou, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Donglan

2016-01-01

Background China is reforming and restructuring its health insurance system to achieve the goal of universal coverage. This study aims to understand the determinants of public, private and multiple insurance coverage among people of retirement-age in China. Methods We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013, a nationally representative survey of Chinese people aged 45 and over. Multinomial logit regression was performed to identify the determinants of public, private and multiple health insurance coverage. We also conducted logit regression to examine the association between public insurance coverage and demand for private insurance. Results In 2013, 94.5% of this population had at least one type of public insurance, and 12.2% purchased private insurance. In general, we found that rural residents were less likely to be uninsured (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR) = 0.40, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.34–0.47) and were less likely to buy private insurance (RRR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.16–0.31). But rural-to-urban migrants were more likely to be uninsured (RRR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.24–1.57). Public health insurance coverage may crowd out private insurance market (Odds Ratio = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.48–0.63), particularly among enrollees of Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance. There exists a huge socioeconomic disparity in both public and private insurance coverage. Conclusion The migrants, the poor and the vulnerable remained in the edge of the system. The growing private insurance market did not provide sufficient financial protection and did not cover the people with the greatest need. To achieve universal coverage and reduce socioeconomic disparity, China should integrate the urban and rural public insurance schemes across regions and remove the barriers for the middle-income and low-income to access private insurance. PMID:27564320

Street choice logit model for visitors in shopping districts.

PubMed

Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

2014-09-01

In this study, we propose two models for predicting people's activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that "have more shops, and are wider and lower". In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive).
Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

PubMed Central

Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

2014-01-01

In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274
Statistical inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions in the presence of missing genotype information.

PubMed

Graffelman, Jan; Sánchez, Milagros; Cook, Samantha; Moreno, Victor

2013-01-01

In genetic association studies, tests for Hardy-Weinberg proportions are often employed as a quality control checking procedure. Missing genotypes are typically discarded prior to testing. In this paper we show that inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions can be biased when missing values are discarded. We propose to use multiple imputation of missing values in order to improve inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For imputation we employ a multinomial logit model that uses information from allele intensities and/or neighbouring markers. Analysis of an empirical data set of single nucleotide polymorphisms possibly related to colon cancer reveals that missing genotypes are not missing completely at random. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions is mostly due to a lack of heterozygotes. Inbreeding coefficients estimated by multiple imputation of the missings are typically lowered with respect to inbreeding coefficients estimated by discarding the missings. Accounting for missings by multiple imputation qualitatively changed the results of 10 to 17% of the statistical tests performed. Estimates of inbreeding coefficients obtained by multiple imputation showed high correlation with estimates obtained by single imputation using an external reference panel. Our conclusion is that imputation of missing data leads to improved statistical inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions.
Effects of Payment Changes on Trends in Post-Acute Care

PubMed Central

Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Colla, Carrie Hoverman; Escarce, José J

2009-01-01

Objective To test how the implementation of new Medicare post-acute payment systems affected the use of inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs), skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), and home health agencies. Data Sources Medicare acute hospital, IRF, and SNF claims; provider of services file; enrollment file; and Area Resource File data. Study Design We used multinomial logit models to measure realized access to post-acute care and to predict how access to alternative sites of care changed in response to prospective payment systems. Data Extraction Methods A file was constructed linking data for elderly Medicare patients discharged from acute care facilities between 1996 and 2003 with a diagnosis of hip fracture, stroke, or lower extremity joint replacement. Principal Findings Although the effects of the payment systems on the use of post-acute care varied, most reduced the use of the site of care they directly affected and boosted the use of alternative sites of care. Payment system changes do not appear to have differentially affected the severely ill. Conclusions Payment system incentives play a significant role in determining where Medicare beneficiaries receive their post-acute care. Changing these incentives results in shifting of patients between post-acute sites. PMID:19490159
User fees across ecosystem boundaries: Are SCUBA divers willing to pay for terrestrial biodiversity conservation?

PubMed

Roberts, Michaela; Hanley, Nick; Cresswell, Will

2017-09-15

While ecological links between ecosystems have been long recognised, management rarely crosses ecosystem boundaries. Coral reefs are susceptible to damage through terrestrial run-off, and failing to account for this within management threatens reef protection. In order to quantify the extent to that coral reef users are willing to support management actions to improve ecosystem quality, we conducted a choice experiment with SCUBA divers on the island of Bonaire, Caribbean Netherlands. Specifically, we estimated their willingness to pay to reduce terrestrial overgrazing as a means to improve reef health. Willingness to pay was estimated using the multinomial, random parameter and latent class logit models. Willingness to pay for improvements to reef quality was positive for the majority of respondents. Estimates from the latent class model determined willingness to pay for reef improvements of between $31.17 - $413.18/year, dependent on class membership. This represents a significant source of funding for terrestrial conservation, and illustrates the potential for user fees to be applied across ecosystem boundaries. We argue that such across-ecosystem-boundary funding mechanisms are an important avenue for future investigation in many connected systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
An introduction to multidimensional measurement using Rasch models.

PubMed

Briggs, Derek C; Wilson, Mark

2003-01-01

The act of constructing a measure requires a number of important assumptions. Principle among these assumptions is that the construct is unidimensional. In practice there are many instances when the assumption of unidimensionality does not hold, and where the application of a multidimensional measurement model is both technically appropriate and substantively advantageous. In this paper we illustrate the usefulness of a multidimensional approach to measurement with the Multidimensional Random Coefficient Multinomial Logit (MRCML) model, an extension of the unidimensional Rasch model. An empirical example is taken from a collection of embedded assessments administered to 541 students enrolled in middle school science classes with a hands-on science curriculum. Student achievement on these assessments are multidimensional in nature, but can also be treated as consecutive unidimensional estimates, or as is most common, as a composite unidimensional estimate. Structural parameters are estimated for each model using ConQuest, and model fit is compared. Student achievement in science is also compared across models. The multidimensional approach has the best fit to the data, and provides more reliable estimates of student achievement than under the consecutive unidimensional approach. Finally, at an interpretational level, the multidimensional approach may well provide richer information to the classroom teacher about the nature of student achievement.
A Bayesian hierarchical model for discrete choice data in health care.

PubMed

Antonio, Anna Liza M; Weiss, Robert E; Saigal, Christopher S; Dahan, Ely; Crespi, Catherine M

2017-01-01

In discrete choice experiments, patients are presented with sets of health states described by various attributes and asked to make choices from among them. Discrete choice experiments allow health care researchers to study the preferences of individual patients by eliciting trade-offs between different aspects of health-related quality of life. However, many discrete choice experiments yield data with incomplete ranking information and sparsity due to the limited number of choice sets presented to each patient, making it challenging to estimate patient preferences. Moreover, methods to identify outliers in discrete choice data are lacking. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical random effects rank-ordered multinomial logit model for discrete choice data. Missing ranks are accounted for by marginalizing over all possible permutations of unranked alternatives to estimate individual patient preferences, which are modeled as a function of patient covariates. We provide a Bayesian version of relative attribute importance, and adapt the use of the conditional predictive ordinate to identify outlying choice sets and outlying individuals with unusual preferences compared to the population. The model is applied to data from a study using a discrete choice experiment to estimate individual patient preferences for health states related to prostate cancer treatment.
PEER REVIEW FOR THE CONSUMER VEHICLE CHOICE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) has recently sponsored the development of a Consumer Vehicle Choice Model (CVCM) by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The specification by OTAQ to ORNL for consumer choice model development was to develop a Nested Multinomial Logit (NMNL) or other appropriate model capable of estimating the consumer surplus impacts and the sales mix effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards. The CVCM will use output from the EPA’s Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles (OMEGA), including changes in retail price equivalents, changes in fuel economy, and changes in emissions, to estimate these impacts. In addition, the CVCM will accept approximately 60 vehicle types, with the flexibility to function with fewer or more vehicle types, and will use a 15 year planning horizon, matching the OMEGA parameters. It will be calibrated to baseline sales projection data provided by the EPA and will include a buy/no-buy option to simulate the possibility that consumers will choose to keep their old vehicle or to buy a used vehicle. To support EPA's future assessment of potential light duty greenhouse gas standards
Rural livestock asset portfolio in northern Ethiopia: a microeconomic analysis of choice and accumulation.

PubMed

Tegebu, Fredu Nega; Mathijs, Erik; Deckers, Jozef; Haile, Mitiku; Nyssen, Jan; Tollens, Eric

2012-01-01

Livestock fulfill different functions. Depending on their livelihood strategies, households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep and on accumulation of the chosen animal overtime. Using a panel data of 385 rural households in a mixed farming system in northern Ethiopia, this paper investigates the dynamic behavior of rural households' livestock holding to identify determinants of choice and accumulation of livestock overtime. Choice is analyzed for a principal animal, the animal that constituted the largest value of livestock assets a household possessed, using a multinomial logit model. Results indicate that rural households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep. Agro-climatic conditions, sex and age of household head, presence of an adult male member in a household, and liquidity are the major factors that influence the type of principal animal households keep. Conditional on the principal animal selected, we analyzed the factors that determine the accumulation of the chosen animals by correcting for selection bias. Area of land cultivated is the most significant factor that explains the number of animals households keep. Other factors include sex of household head, diversification into nonfarm self-employment, and shocks.
An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

PubMed Central

Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209
An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

PubMed

Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.
POLO: a user's guide to Probit Or LOgit analysis.

Treesearch

Jacqueline L. Robertson; Robert M. Russell; N.E. Savin

1980-01-01

This user's guide provides detailed instructions for the use of POLO (Probit Or LOgit), a computer program for the analysis of quantal response data such as that obtained from insecticide bioassays by the techniques of probit or logit analysis. Dosage-response lines may be compared for parallelism or...
Logit Models for the Analysis of Two-Way Categorical Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2011-01-01

This article discusses the application of logit models for the analyses of 2-way categorical observations. The models described are generalized linear models using the logit link function. One of the models is the Rasch model (Rasch, 1960). The objective is to test hypotheses of marginal and conditional independence between explanatory quantities…
Constrained and Unconstrained Partial Adjacent Category Logit Models for Ordinal Response Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Andrew S.; Xu, Jun

2018-01-01

Adjacent category logit models are ordered regression models that focus on comparisons of adjacent categories. These models are particularly useful for ordinal response variables with categories that are of substantive interest. In this article, we consider unconstrained and constrained versions of the partial adjacent category logit model, which…
Gender gap in parents' financing strategy for hospitalization of their children: evidence from India.

PubMed

Asfaw, Abay; Lamanna, Francesca; Klasen, Stephan

2010-03-01

The 'missing women' dilemma in India has sparked great interest in investigating gender discrimination in the provision of health care in the country. No studies, however, have directly examined discrimination in health-care financing strategies in the case of severe illness of sons versus daughters. In this paper, we hypothesize that households who face tight budget constraints are more likely to spend their meager resources on hospitalization of boys rather than girls. We use the 60th round of the Indian National Sample Survey (2004) and a multinomial logit model to test this hypothesis and to throw some light on this important but overlooked issue. The results reveal that boys are much more likely to be hospitalized than girls. When it comes to financing, the gap in the usage of household income and savings is relatively small, while the gender gap in the probability of hospitalization and usage of more onerous financing strategies is very high. Ceteris paribus, the probability of boys to be hospitalized by financing from borrowing, sale of assets, help from friends, etc. is much higher than that of girls. Moreover, in line with our theoretical framework, the results indicate that the gender gap intensifies as we move from the richest to poorest households. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Occupant Perceptions and a Health Outcome in Retail Stores

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Mingjie; Kim, Yang-Seon; Srebric, Jelena

Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) in commercial buildings, such as retail stores, can affect employee satisfaction, productivity, and health. This study administered an IEQ survey to retail employees and found correlations between measured IEQ parameters and the survey responses. The survey included 611 employees in 14 retail stores located in Pennsylvania (climate zone 5A) and Texas (climate zone 2A). The survey questionnaire featured ratings of different aspects of IEQ, including thermal comfort, lighting and noise level, indoor smells, overall cleanness, and environmental quality. Simultaneously with the survey, on-site physical measurements were taken to collect data of relative humidity levels, air exchangemore » rates, dry bulb temperatures, and contaminant concentrations. This data was analyzed using multinomial logit regression with independent variables being the measured IEQ parameters, employees’ gender, and age. This study found that employee perception of stuffy smells is related to formaldehyde and PM10 concentrations. Furthermore, the survey also asked the employees to report an annual frequency of common colds as a health indicator. The regression analysis showed that the cold frequency statistically correlates with the measured air exchange rates, outdoor temperatures, and indoor PM concentrations. Overall, the air exchange rate is the most influential parameter on the employee perception of the overall environmental quality and self-reported health outcome.« less
Treatment-seeking behaviour and social health insurance in Africa: the case of Ghana under the National Health Insurance Scheme.

PubMed

Fenny, Ama P; Asante, Felix A; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian S

2014-10-27

Health insurance is attracting more and more attention as a means for improving health care utilization and protecting households against impoverishment from out-of-pocket expenditures. Currently about 52 percent of the resources for financing health care services come from out of pocket sources or user fees in Africa. Therefore, Ghana serves as in interesting case study as it has successfully expanded coverage of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). The study aims to establish the treatment-seeking behaviour of households in Ghana under the NHI policy. The study relies on household data collected from three districts in Ghana covering the 3 ecological zones namely the coastal, forest and savannah.Out of the 1013 who sought care in the previous 4 weeks, 60% were insured and 71% of them sought care from a formal health facility. The results from the multinomial logit estimations show that health insurance and travel time to health facility are significant determinants of health care demand. Overall, compared to the uninsured, the insured are more likely to choose formal health facilities than informal care including self-medication when ill. We discuss the implications of these results as the concept of the NHIS grows widely in Ghana and serves as a good model for other African countries.
Treatment-Seeking Behaviour and Social Health Insurance in Africa: The Case of Ghana Under the National Health Insurance Scheme

PubMed Central

Fenny, Ama P.; Asante, Felix A.; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian S.

2015-01-01

Health insurance is attracting more and more attention as a means for improving health care utilization and protecting households against impoverishment from out-of-pocket expenditures. Currently about 52 percent of the resources for financing health care services come from out of pocket sources or user fees in Africa. Therefore, Ghana serves as in interesting case study as it has successfully expanded coverage of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). The study aims to establish the treatment-seeking behaviour of households in Ghana under the NHI policy. The study relies on household data collected from three districts in Ghana covering the 3 ecological zones namely the coastal, forest and savannah. Out of the 1013 who sought care in the previous 4 weeks, 60% were insured and 71% of them sought care from a formal health facility. The results from the multinomial logit estimations show that health insurance and travel time to health facility are significant determinants of health care demand. Overall, compared to the uninsured, the insured are more likely to choose formal health facilities than informal care including self-medication when ill. We discuss the implications of these results as the concept of the NHIS grows widely in Ghana and serves as a good model for other African countries. PMID:25560361
Changes in the use of postacute care during the initial Medicare payment reforms.

PubMed

Lin, Wen-Chieh; Kane, Robert L; Mehr, David R; Madsen, Richard W; Petroski, Gregory F

2006-08-01

To examine changes in postacute care (PAC) use during the initial Medicare payment reforms enacted by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. We used claims data from the 5 percent Medicare beneficiary sample in 1996, 1998, and 2000. Linked data from the Denominator file, Provider of Service file, and Area Resource File provided additional patient, hospital, and market-area characteristics. Six disease groups with high PAC use were selected for analysis. We used multinomial logit regression to examine how PAC use differed by year of service, controlling for patient, hospital, and market-area characteristics. There were major changes in PAC use, and a portion of services shifted to settings where reimbursement remained cost-based. During the first reform, the home health agency interim payment system, home health use decreased consistently across disease groups. This decrease was accompanied by increased use in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). Following the implementation of the prospective payment system for SNFs, the use of inpatient rehabilitation facilities increased. The shift in usage among settings occurred in two stages that corresponded to the timing of payment reforms for home health agencies and SNFs. Evidence strongly suggests the substitutability between PAC settings. Financial incentives, in addition to clinical needs and individual preferences, play a major role in PAC use.
Trail impacts in Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park, Nepal: a logistic regression analysis.

PubMed

Nepal, S K

2003-09-01

A trail study was conducted in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park, Nepal, during 1997-1998. Based on that study, this paper examines the spatial variability of trail conditions and analyzes factors that influence trail conditions. Logistic regression (multinomial logit model) is applied to examine the influence of use and environmental factors on trail conditions. The assessment of trail conditions is based on a four-class rating system: (class I, very little damaged; class II, moderately damaged, class III, heavily damaged; and class IV, severely damaged). Wald statistics and a model classification table have been used for data interpretation. Results indicate that altitude, trail gradient, hazard potential, and vegetation type are positively associated with trail condition. Trails are more degraded at higher altitude, on steep gradients, in areas with natural hazard potential, and within shrub/grassland zones. Strong correlations between high levels of trail degradation and higher frequencies of visitors and lodges were found. A detailed analysis of environmental and use factors could provide valuable information to park managers in their decisions about trail design, layout and maintenance, and efficient and effective visitor management strategies. Comparable studies on high alpine environments are needed to predict precisely the effects of topographic and climatic extremes. More refined approaches and experimental methods are necessary to control the effects of environmental factors.

Queues with Choice via Delay Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pender, Jamol; Rand, Richard H.; Wesson, Elizabeth

Delay or queue length information has the potential to influence the decision of a customer to join a queue. Thus, it is imperative for managers of queueing systems to understand how the information that they provide will affect the performance of the system. To this end, we construct and analyze two two-dimensional deterministic fluid models that incorporate customer choice behavior based on delayed queue length information. In the first fluid model, customers join each queue according to a Multinomial Logit Model, however, the queue length information the customer receives is delayed by a constant Δ. We show that the delay can cause oscillations or asynchronous behavior in the model based on the value of Δ. In the second model, customers receive information about the queue length through a moving average of the queue length. Although it has been shown empirically that giving patients moving average information causes oscillations and asynchronous behavior to occur in U.S. hospitals, we analytically and mathematically show for the first time that the moving average fluid model can exhibit oscillations and determine their dependence on the moving average window. Thus, our analysis provides new insight on how operators of service systems should report queue length information to customers and how delayed information can produce unwanted system dynamics.
Exacerbations of COPD: quantifying the patient's perspective using discrete choice modelling.

PubMed

Haughney, J; Partridge, M R; Vogelmeier, C; Larsson, T; Kessler, R; Ståhl, E; Brice, R; Löfdahl, C-G

2005-10-01

Patient-centred care is the current vogue in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but it is only recently that robust techniques have become available to determine patients' values and preferences. In this international cross-sectional study, patients' concerns and expectations regarding COPD exacerbations were explored using discrete choice modelling. A fractional factorial design was used to develop scenarios comprising a combination of levels for nine different attributes. In face-to-face interviews, patients were presented with paired scenarios and asked to choose the least preferable. Multinomial logit (with hierarchical Bayes) methods were used to estimate utilities. A total of 125 patients (82 males; mean age 66 yrs; 4.6 mean exacerbations.yr-1) were recruited. The attributes of exacerbations considered most important were impact on everyday life (20%), need for medical care (16%), number of future attacks (12%) and breathlessness (11%). The next most important attributes were speed of recovery, productive cough and social impact (all 9%), followed by sleep disturbance and impact on mood (both 7%). Importantly, analysis of utility shifts showed that patients most feared being hospitalised, housebound or bedridden. These issues were more important than symptom improvement. Strategies for the clinical management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease should clearly address patients' concerns and focus on preventing and treating exacerbations to avoid these feared outcomes.
Stability and change in fertility preferences among young women in Malawi.

PubMed

Sennott, Christie; Yeatman, Sara

2012-03-01

Although studies have demonstrated change in fertility preferences over time, there is a lack of definitive knowledge about the level and direction of change among individuals, especially young and unmarried women. Furthermore, little is known about the factors associated with changes in fertility preferences over time. The analysis uses the first five waves of data from a longitudinal study of a random sample of women aged 15-25 in southern Malawi. The data were collected four months apart over an 18-month period, between June 2009 and December 2010. Multinomial logit regression models were used to calculate relative risk ratios and identify associations between four categories of life events-reproductive, relationship, health and economic-and shifts in fertility timing preferences. In each four-month period, more than half of the women reported changes in the desired timing of their next birth, and delays and accelerations in timing desires were common. Several life events, including having a child, entering a serious relationship and changes in household finances were associated with changes in the level and direction of fertility preference. Shifts in fertility timing preferences often occur in response to changes in life circumstances. Understanding the reasons for these shifts may aid family planning providers in meeting women's contraceptive needs.
The Trajectory and the Related Physical and Social Determinants of Body Mass Index in Elementary School Children: Results from the Child and Adolescent Behaviors in Long-Term Evolution Study

PubMed Central

Chang, Hsing-Yi; Luh, Dih-Ling; Hurng, Baai-Shyun; Yen, Lee-Lan

2014-01-01

This study explored developmental trajectory patterns of BMI and associated factors. Participants included 1,609 students who were followed from age 7 to 12 years. Data collection involved annual self-administered questionnaires and records of height and weight. An ecological model was used to identify the factors associated with BMI trajectories. Group-based trajectory models and multinomial logit models were used in the statistical analysis. There were gender differences in BMI trajectories. Among boys, four BMI trajectories were normal or slightly underweight, persistently normal weight, overweight becoming obese, and persistently obese. Among girls, four BMI trajectories were persistently slightly underweight, persistently normal weight, persistently overweight, and persistently obese. The mean BMI in each trajectory group demonstrated an upward trend over time. In boys, BMI trajectories were significantly associated with after-school exercise, academic performance, family interactions, overweight parents, and father's education level. In girls, BMI trajectories were significantly associated with television viewing or computer use, family interactions, peer interactions, and overweight parents. Children under age 7 years who are already overweight or obese are an important target for interventions. The different factors associated with BMI trajectories can be used for targeting high risk groups. PMID:25114800
Economic and organizational determinants of HMO mergers and failures.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Wholey, D; Christianson, J

1996-01-01

This study analyzed data from all operational health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the United States from 1986 through 1993. Eighty HMOs disappeared through mergers and 149 failed over that period. We estimated a multinomial logit model to predict whether an HMO would merge and survive, merge and disappear, or fail, relative to the probability of no event. We found that enrollment and profitability play a critical role in explaining HMO mergers and failures: large and profitable HMOs were more likely to merge and survive, but less likely to merge and disappear or fail. These results explain why HMO merger and failure rates fell after 1988, as most surviving HMOs became larger and more profitable. Among several market-area variables in the model, state anti-takeover regulations had a negative impact on mergers. Mergers were more likely in markets with more competing HMOs, but the overall market penetration of HMOs had no effect on mergers. This result may have important implications for the current debate over the future of the competitive health care strategy. If public policy successfully stimulates the development of large numbers of new HMOs, another wave of mergers and failures is likely to occur. But it appears that growth in overall HMO penetration will not lead inevitably to increased market concentration.
Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2013-07-01

In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.
What factors drive heterogeneity of preferences for micro-health insurance in rural Malawi?

PubMed

Abiiro, Gilbert Abotisem; Torbica, Aleksandra; Kwalamasa, Kassim; De Allegri, Manuela

2016-11-01

Investigating the factors that drive differences in preferences for health insurance products among rural populations is a relevant policy issue that has so far received little attention. This study used a discrete choice experiment to explore heterogeneity of preferences for a prospective micro-health insurance (MHI) product in Malawi. Through an extensive qualitative study, six attributes, each associated with three levels, were derived and used to construct a D-efficient design. The attributes included unit of enrollment, management structure, health service benefit package, copayment levels, transportation coverage and monthly premium. The experiment was interviewer administered to a stratified random sample of household heads and their spouse(s). Using mixed logit and generalized multinomial logit models, respondent characteristics were interacted with MHI attributes to explore heterogeneity of preferences. The results showed that those in the higher age group (≥55 years) and those from households with higher household expenditure had significantly higher preferences for comprehensive and medium benefit packages than for a basic package. Those from households that incurred any healthcare expenditure within the past 4 weeks had lower preferences for the core family as a unit of enrollment than the individual, and higher preferences for coverage of transport costs. Women and non-micro-finance members had higher preferences for 25% copayment than for 50% copayment. There was evidence of scale heterogeneity signifying that the observed preference variations could have resulted from scale and variance differences, rather than real variations in the taste of respondents. To attract the relatively older and wealthier, prospective MHI should offer comprehensive health services benefit packages. Premium exemptions or subsidies should also be offered to the poor. Lower copayments can provide an incentive for women and non-micro-finance members, whilst coverage of transport costs can also attract those with recent history of incurring out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure to accept MHI. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Accounting for Scale Heterogeneity in Healthcare-Related Discrete Choice Experiments when Comparing Stated Preferences: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Wright, Stuart J; Vass, Caroline M; Sim, Gene; Burton, Michael; Fiebig, Denzil G; Payne, Katherine

2018-02-28

Scale heterogeneity, or differences in the error variance of choices, may account for a significant amount of the observed variation in the results of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) when comparing preferences between different groups of respondents. The aim of this study was to identify if, and how, scale heterogeneity has been addressed in healthcare DCEs that compare the preferences of different groups. A systematic review identified all healthcare DCEs published between 1990 and February 2016. The full-text of each DCE was then screened to identify studies that compared preferences using data generated from multiple groups. Data were extracted and tabulated on year of publication, samples compared, tests for scale heterogeneity, and analytical methods to account for scale heterogeneity. Narrative analysis was used to describe if, and how, scale heterogeneity was accounted for when preferences were compared. A total of 626 healthcare DCEs were identified. Of these 199 (32%) aimed to compare the preferences of different groups specified at the design stage, while 79 (13%) compared the preferences of groups identified at the analysis stage. Of the 278 included papers, 49 (18%) discussed potential scale issues, 18 (7%) used a formal method of analysis to account for scale between groups, and 2 (1%) accounted for scale differences between preference groups at the analysis stage. Scale heterogeneity was present in 65% (n = 13) of studies that tested for it. Analytical methods to test for scale heterogeneity included coefficient plots (n = 5, 2%), heteroscedastic conditional logit models (n = 6, 2%), Swait and Louviere tests (n = 4, 1%), generalised multinomial logit models (n = 5, 2%), and scale-adjusted latent class analysis (n = 2, 1%). Scale heterogeneity is a prevalent issue in healthcare DCEs. Despite this, few published DCEs have discussed such issues, and fewer still have used formal methods to identify and account for the impact of scale heterogeneity. The use of formal methods to test for scale heterogeneity should be used, otherwise the results of DCEs potentially risk producing biased and potentially misleading conclusions regarding preferences for aspects of healthcare.
The Association of Electronic Health Record Adoption with Staffing Mix in Community Health Centers.

PubMed

Frogner, Bianca K; Wu, Xiaoli; Park, Jeongyoung; Pittman, Patricia

2017-02-01

To assess how medical staffing mix changed over time in association with the adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) in community health centers (CHCs). Community health centers within the 50 states and Washington, DC. Estimated how the change in the share of total medical staff full-time equivalents (FTE) by provider category between 2007 and 2013 was associated with EHR adoption using fractional multinomial logit. 2007-2013 Uniform Data System, an administrative data set of Section 330 federal grant recipients; and Readiness for Meaningful Use and HIT and Patient Centered Medical Home Recognition Survey responses collected from Section 330 recipients between December 2010 and February 2011. Having an EHR system did significantly shift the share of workers over time between physicians and each of the other categories of health care workers. While an EHR system significantly shifted the share of physician and other medical staff, this effect did not significantly vary over time. CHCs with EHRs by the end of the study period had a relatively greater proportion of other medical staff compared to the proportion of physicians. Electronic health records appeared to influence staffing allocation in CHCs such that other medical staff may be used to support adoption of EHRs as well as be leveraged as an important care provider. © Health Research and Educational Trust.
U.S. consumer demand for restaurant calorie information: targeting demographic and behavioral segments in labeling initiatives.

PubMed

Kolodinsky, Jane; Reynolds, Travis William; Cannella, Mark; Timmons, David; Bromberg, Daniel

2009-01-01

To identify different segments of U.S. consumers based on food choices, exercise patterns, and desire for restaurant calorie labeling. Using a stratified (by region) random sample of the U.S. population, trained interviewers collected data for this cross-sectional study through telephone surveys. Center for Rural Studies U.S. national health survey. The final sample included 580 responses (22% response rate); data were weighted to be representative of age and gender characteristics of the U.S. population. Self-reported behaviors related to food choices, exercise patterns, desire for calorie information in restaurants, and sample demographics. Clusters were identified using Schwartz Bayesian criteria. Impacts of demographic characteristics on cluster membership were analyzed using bivariate tests of association and multinomial logit regression. Cluster analysis revealed three clusters based on respondents' food choices, activity levels, and desire for restaurant labeling. Two clusters, comprising three quarters of the sample, desired calorie labeling in restaurants. The remaining cluster opposed restaurant labeling. Demographic variables significantly predicting cluster membership included region of residence (p < .10), income (p < .05), gender (p < .01), and age (p < .10). Though limited by a low response and potential self-reporting bias in the phone survey, this study suggests that several groups are likely to benefit from restaurant calorie labeling. Specific demographic clusters could be targeted through labeling initiatives.
Hard times and common mental health disorders in developing countries: insights from urban Ghana.

PubMed

Dzator, Janet

2013-01-01

Over the past century, the world has rapidly become urbanized, meaning more people now live in urban areas and cities than in rural areas. The mass movement of the rural poor to urban centers and cities has also changed the dynamics of poverty. Scarce employment opportunities, lack of assets, and sudden changes in economic conditions have been proposed as increasing the stress level for most urban residents, especially the poorer ones. Using a face-to-face household survey that included a six-item non-specific psychometric instrument, the data revealed how psychological distress may be patterned by socioeconomic status among urban residents in Ghana during difficult times characterized by food and fuel price hikes. The data collected in interviews of 1,158 adults (49% males and 51% females) who were 18 years and above were analyzed using multinomial logit regressions. The results confirmed previous findings and showed negative links between socioeconomic status, adverse life events, and psychological distress. Specifically, low income, low level of education, large household size, undesirable life events and being employed in agriculture was found to be associated with psychological disorders. The outcomes of this research project are consistent with previous findings-that people in lower socioeconomic strata and those who have suffered adverse events are more likely to suffer psychological distress. The implications of these results for behavioral health are discussed.
The effect of alcohol consumption on household income in Ireland.

PubMed

Ormond, Gillian; Murphy, Rosemary

2016-11-01

This paper presents a study of the effects of alcohol consumption on household income in Ireland using the Slán National Health and Lifestyle Survey 2007 dataset, accounting for endogeneity and selection bias. Drinkers are categorised into one of four categories based on the recommended weekly drinking levels by the Irish Health Promotion Unit; those who never drank, non-drinkers, moderate and heavy drinkers. A multinomial logit OLS Two Step Estimate is used to explain individual's choice of drinking status and to correct for selection bias which would result in the selection into a particular category of drinking being endogenous. Endogeneity which may arise through the simultaneity of drinking status and income either due to the reverse causation between the two variables, income affecting alcohol consumption or alcohol consumption affecting income, or due to unobserved heterogeneity, is addressed. This paper finds that the household income of drinkers is higher than that of non-drinkers and of those who never drank. There is very little difference between the household income of moderate and heavy drinkers, with heavy drinkers earning slightly more. Weekly household income for those who never drank is €454.20, non-drinkers is €506.26, compared with €683.36 per week for moderate drinkers and €694.18 for heavy drinkers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Spatial Distribution of Underweight, Overweight and Obesity among Women and Children: Results from the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey

PubMed Central

Turi, Kedir N.; Christoph, Mary J.; Grigsby-Toussaint, Diana S.

2013-01-01

While undernutrition and infectious diseases are still persistent in developing countries, overweight, obesity, and associated comorbidities have become more prevalent. Uganda, a developing sub-Saharan African country, is currently experiencing the public health paradox of undernutrition and overnutrition. We utilized the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to examine risk factors and hot spots for underweight, overweight, and obesity among adult females (N = 2,420) and their children (N = 1,099) using ordinary least squares and multinomial logit regression and the ArcGIS Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Overweight and obese women were significantly more likely to have overweight children, and overweight was correlated with being in the highest wealth class (OR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.99–4.35), and residing in an urban (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.34–2.29) but not a conflict prone (OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.29–0.78) area. Underweight clustered significantly in the Northern and Northeastern regions, while overweight females and children clustered in the Southeast. We demonstrate that the DHS can be used to assess geographic clustering and burden of disease, thereby allowing for targeted programs and policies. Further, we pinpoint specific regions and population groups in Uganda for targeted preventive measures and treatment to reduce the burden of overweight and chronic diseases in Uganda. PMID:24157515
[Food satisfaction in Mapuche persons in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile].

PubMed

Schnettler, Berta; Miranda, Horacio; Sepúlveda, José; Denegri, Marianela; Mora, Marcos; Lobos, Germán

2011-06-01

Although the study and measurement of satisfaction with life has generated great interest in the last 15 years, there are few works which address satisfaction with food-related life. In order to identify variables which have an influence on satisfaction with food-related life among Mapuche persons, a survey was applied to 400 Mapuche subjects in the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. The scales evaluated in the questionnaire included: SWFL (Satisfaction with Food-related Life), lifestyles, food, and Mapuche acculturation. It was found that 41.0% were extremely satisfied, 40.5% satisfied, 17.2% somewhat satisfied and 1.2% dissatisfied with their food-related life. To identify variables which have an influence on satisfaction with food, an ordinal multinomial logit model was proposed, which was significant (p < 0.01) as a whole. The probability of high satisfaction with food-related life increases as there are fewer children in the household, the person's expenditure on food increases, the person consumes some Mapuche foods, is aged 55 or more, consumes red meat in moderation, consumes foods without additives, try to balance work and private life, does not read the labels of products, and if he/she had Mapuche friends at school. Thus satisfaction with food-related life in Mapuche persons in the Metropolitan Region is related to demographic variables, expenditure on food, consumption of Mapuche foods and life-style.
Elite formation under occupation: the internal stratification of palestinian elites in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

PubMed

Mazawi, A E; Yogev, A

1999-09-01

This paper examines the internal stratification of Palestinian elites in the West Bank and Gaza Strip under Israeli occupation. Our general aim is to clarify the extent to which social and political subordination to outside rule influences the development of indigenous elites in stateless societies. In contrast to nation-state societies, such elites may be horizontally stratified into a wider range of institutional settings, and vertically stratified by anti-occupation activism alongside the attainment of occupational prestige. In addition, context-specific determinants of their stratification patterns, such as refugee status, regionality, and country in which educational credentials were acquired, should be considered. A secondary content analysis of interviews conducted by the Palestinian Panorama centre with 249 elite members reveals, that the vertical stratification of Palestinian elites along occupational attainment and anti-occupation activism constitutes two quite independent status dimensions. A multinomial logit regression shows that, horizontally, elite groups are embedded in four distinct types of institutional activity, further demonstrating the multi-faceted formation of Palestinian elites. Contextual resources, such as refugee versus non-refugee status, regionality, and the acquiring of Western credentials, have differential effects on the vertical and horizontal stratification of Palestinian elites. The implications of these findings for further research on elite formation in the post-Oslo Palestinian society and in other stateless societies are discussed in conclusion.
The Challenge of Conditional Reimbursement: Stopping Reimbursement Can Be More Difficult Than Not Starting in the First Place!

PubMed

van de Wetering, E J; van Exel, Job; Brouwer, Werner B F

2017-01-01

Conditional reimbursement of new health technologies is increasingly considered as a useful policy instrument. It allows gathering more robust evidence regarding effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new technologies without delaying market access. Nevertheless, the literature suggests that ending reimbursement and provision of a technology when it proves not to be effective or cost-effective in practice may be difficult. To investigate how policymakers and the general public in the Netherlands value removing a previously reimbursed treatment from the basic benefits package relative to not including a new treatment. To investigate this issue, we used discrete-choice experiments. Mixed multinomial logit models were used to analyze the data. Compensating variation values and changes in probability of acceptance were calculated for withdrawal of reimbursement. The results show that, ceteris paribus, both the general public (n = 1169) and policymakers (n = 90) prefer a treatment that is presently reimbursed over one that is presently not yet reimbursed. Apparently, ending reimbursement is more difficult than not starting reimbursement in the first place, both for policymakers and for the public. Loss aversion is one of the possible explanations for this result. Policymakers in health care need to be aware of this effect before engaging in conditional reimbursement schemes. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Allocation of authority in European health policy.

PubMed

Adolph, Christopher; Greer, Scott L; Massard da Fonseca, Elize

2012-11-01

Although many study the effects of different allocations of health policy authority, few ask why countries assign responsibility over different policies as they do. We test two broad theories: fiscal federalism, which predicts rational governments will concentrate information-intensive operations at lower levels, and redistributive and regulatory functions at higher levels; and "politicized federalism", which suggests a combination of systematic and historically idiosyncratic political variables interfere with efficient allocation of authority. Drawing on the WHO Health in Transition country profiles, we present new data on the allocation of responsibility for key health care policy tasks (implementation, provision, finance, regulation, and framework legislation) and policy areas (primary, secondary and tertiary care, public health and pharmaceuticals) in the 27 EU member states and Switzerland. We use a Bayesian multinomial mixed logit model to analyze how different countries arrive at different allocations of authority over each task and area of health policy, and find the allocation of powers broadly follows fiscal federalism. Responsibility for pharmaceuticals, framework legislation, and most finance lodges at the highest levels of government, acute and primary care in the regions, and provision at the local and regional levels. Where allocation does not follow fiscal federalism, it appears to reflect ethnic divisions, the population of states and regions, the presence of mountainous terrain, and the timing of region creation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Decision-theoretic approach to data acquisition for transit operations planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ritchie, S.G.

The most costly element of transportation planning and modeling activities in the past has usually been that of data acquisition. This is even truer today when the unit costs of data collection are increasing rapidly and at the same time budgets are severely limited by continuing policies of fiscal austerity in the public sector. The overall objectives of this research were to improve the decisions and decision-making capabilities of transit operators or planners in short-range transit planning, and to improve the quality and cost-effectiveness of associated route or corridor-level data collection and service monitoring activities. A new approach was presentedmore » for sequentially updating the parameters of both simple and multiple linear regression models with stochastic regressors, and for determining the expected value of sample information and expected net gain of sampling for associated sample designs. A new approach was also presented for estimating and updating (both spatially and temporally) the parameters of multinomial logit discrete choice models, and for determining associated optimal sample designs for attribute-based and choice-based sampling methods. The approach provides an effective framework for addressing the issue of optimal sampling method and sample size, which to date have been largely unresolved. The application of these methodologies and the feasibility of the decision-theoretic approach was illustrated with a hypothetical case study example.« less
Applications manual for logit modes of express bus-fringe parking choices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-01-01

Manual computations and computerized applications of logit models are described. The models demonstrated reflect travel behavior concerning express bus-fringe parking transit. The specific travel issues addressed include the basic automobile vs. expr...
Assessing Success on the Uniform CPA Exam: A Logit Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brahmasrene, Tantatape; Whitten, Donna

2001-01-01

A logit model was used to test the likelihood of success of 231 candidates on the Uniform Certified Public Accountants Examination. Significant determinants of success included undergraduate grade point average, age, private accounting experience, and gender. (SK)

Effect of driver's age and side of impact on crash severity along urban freeways: a mixed logit approach.

PubMed

Haleem, Kirolos; Gan, Albert

2013-09-01

This study identifies geometric, traffic, environmental, vehicle-related, and driver-related predictors of crash injury severity on urban freeways. The study takes advantage of the mixed logit model's ability to account for unobserved effects that are difficult to quantify and may affect the model estimation, such as the driver's reaction at the time of crash. Crashes of 5 years occurring on 89 urban freeway segments throughout the state of Florida in the United States were used. Examples of severity predictors explored include traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, and detailed driver's age, vehicle types, and sides of impact. To show how the parameter estimates could vary, a binary logit model was compared with the mixed logit model. It was found that the at-fault driver's age, traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, vehicle type, side of impact, and percentage of trucks significantly influence severity on urban freeways. Additionally, young at-fault drivers were associated with a significant severity risk increase relative to other age groups. It was also observed that some variables in the binary logit model yielded illogic estimates due to ignoring the random variation of the estimation. Since the at-fault driver's age and side of impact were significant random parameters in the mixed logit model, an in-depth investigation was performed. It was noticed that back, left, and right impacts had the highest risk among middle-aged drivers, followed by young drivers, very young drivers, and finally, old and very old drivers. To reduce side impacts due to lane changing, two primary strategies can be recommended. The first strategy is to conduct campaigns to convey the hazardous effect of changing lanes at higher speeds. The second is to devise in-vehicle side crash avoidance systems to alert drivers of a potential crash risk. The study provided a promising approach to screening the predictors before fitting the mixed logit model using the random forest technique. Furthermore, potential countermeasures were proposed to reduce the severity of impacts. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

2017-12-01

Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).
Nested Logit Models for Multiple-Choice Item Response Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suh, Youngsuk; Bolt, Daniel M.

2010-01-01

Nested logit item response models for multiple-choice data are presented. Relative to previous models, the new models are suggested to provide a better approximation to multiple-choice items where the application of a solution strategy precedes consideration of response options. In practice, the models also accommodate collapsibility across all…
Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leppel, Karen

1993-01-01

A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…
Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value

PubMed Central

Graves, Rose A.; Pearson, Scott M.; Turner, Monica G.

2017-01-01

Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked (i) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; (ii) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and (iii) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors (n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities (n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply. PMID:28320953
A Bayesian network based framework for real-time crash prediction on the basic freeway segments of urban expressways.

PubMed

Hossain, Moinul; Muromachi, Yasunori

2012-03-01

The concept of measuring the crash risk for a very short time window in near future is gaining more practicality due to the recent advancements in the fields of information systems and traffic sensor technology. Although some real-time crash prediction models have already been proposed, they are still primitive in nature and require substantial improvements to be implemented in real-life. This manuscript investigates the major shortcomings of the existing models and offers solutions to overcome them with an improved framework and modeling method. It employs random multinomial logit model to identify the most important predictors as well as the most suitable detector locations to acquire data to build such a model. Afterwards, it applies Bayesian belief net (BBN) to build the real-time crash prediction model. The model has been constructed using high resolution detector data collected from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited, Japan. It has been specifically built for the basic freeway segments and it predicts the chance of formation of a hazardous traffic condition within the next 4-9 min for a particular 250 meter long road section. The performance evaluation results reflect that at an average threshold value the model is able to successful classify 66% of the future crashes with a false alarm rate less than 20%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Factors driving deforestation in common-pool resources in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Perez-Verdin, Gustavo; Kim, Yeon-Su; Hospodarsky, Denver; Tecle, Aregai

2009-01-01

The theory of collective action has been extensively used to explain the relationship between common-based property regimes and the conservation of natural resources. However, there are two key components of the theory that literature reports as puzzles in which no consensus exists about their effect on the performance of common-pool resources. These are group size and heterogeneity. This study analyzes the effects of these two key components on the effectiveness of community-based forestry, called ejidos, to protect their forest resources in northern Mexico. We used a multinomial logit model to determine the contribution of 16 explanatory variables to the dependent variable, a measure of success of ejidos defined by the presence of deforested, degraded, or forested conditions. The results show that corn yield, marginality, percent of forest area, total population, a forest value index, distance to markets, roads and towns, were all statistically significant in driving deforested conditions. Deforestation becomes more attractive for poor communities and as corn yield and distance to towns, roads, and markets decrease. In general, group size and heterogeneity had no significant effects on the presence of deforested conditions. Deforestation is driven by resource-specific characteristics, such as location and soil productivity, not by ejidos' attributes, such as total area or number of members. We argue that current institutional policies focusing on the structure of property right arrangements should be shifted (1) to provide better technology for land cultivation; (2) to reduce the marginality problem in poor communities; and (3) to strengthen local institutions.
Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value.

PubMed

Graves, Rose A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

2017-04-04

Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked ( i ) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; ( ii ) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and ( iii ) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors ( n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities ( n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply.
Valuing QALYs in Relation to Equity Considerations Using a Discrete Choice Experiment.

PubMed

van de Wetering, Liesbet; van Exel, Job; Bobinac, Ana; Brouwer, Werner B F

2015-12-01

To judge whether an intervention offers value for money, the incremental costs per gained quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) need to be compared with some relevant threshold, which ideally reflects the monetary value of health gains. Literature suggests that this value may depend on the equity context in which health gains are produced, but the value of a QALY in relation to equity considerations has remained largely unexplored. The objective of this study was to estimate the social marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for QALY gains in different equity subgroups, using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Both severity of illness (operationalized as proportional shortfall) and fair innings (operationalized as age) were considered as grounds for differentiating the value of health gains. We obtained a sample of 1205 respondents, representative of the adult population of the Netherlands. The data was analysed using panel mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) and latent class models. The panel MMNL models showed counterintuitive results, with more severe health states reducing the probability of receiving treatment. The latent class models revealed distinct preference patterns in the data. MWTP per QALY was sensitive to severity of disease among a substantial proportion of the public, but not to the age of care recipients. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for preference heterogeneity among the public on value-laden issues such as prioritizing health care, both in research and decision making. This study emphasises the need to further explore the monetary value of a QALY in relation to equity considerations.
Quantifying the impact of adaptive traffic control systems on crash frequency and severity: Evidence from Oakland County, Michigan.

PubMed

Fink, Joshua; Kwigizile, Valerian; Oh, Jun-Seok

2016-06-01

Despite seeing widespread usage worldwide, adaptive traffic control systems have experienced relatively little use in the United States. Of the systems used, the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) is the most popular in America. Safety benefits of these systems are not as well understood nor as commonly documented. This study investigates the safety benefits of adaptive traffic control systems by using the large SCATS-based system in Oakland County, MI known as FAST-TRAC. This study uses data from FAST-TRAC-controlled intersections in Oakland County and compares a wide variety of geometric, traffic, and crash characteristics to similar intersections in metropolitan areas elsewhere in Michigan. Data from 498 signalized intersections are used to conduct a cross-sectional analysis. Negative binomial models are used to estimate models for three dependent crash variables. Multinomial logit models are used to estimate an injury severity model. A variable tracking the presence of FAST-TRAC controllers at intersections is used in all models to determine if a SCATS-based system has an impact on crash occurrences or crash severity. Estimates show that the presence of SCATS-based controllers at intersections is likely to reduce angle crashes by up to 19.3%. Severity results show a statistically significant increase in non-serious injuries, but not a significant reduction in incapacitating injuries or fatal accidents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.
Providing animal health services to the poor in Northern Ghana: rethinking the role of community animal health workers?

PubMed

Mockshell, Jonathan; Ilukor, John; Birner, Regina

2014-02-01

The Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs) system has been promoted as an alternative solution to providing animal health services in marginal areas. Yet, access to quality animal health services still remains a fundamental problem for livestock dependent communities. This paper uses the concepts of accessibility, affordability, and transaction costs to examine the perceptions of livestock keepers about the various animal health service providers. The empirical analysis is based on a survey of 120 livestock-keeping households in the Tolon-Kumbungu and Savelugu-Nanton districts in the Northern Region of Ghana. A multinomial logit model was used to determine the factors that influence households' choice of alternative animal health service providers. The results show that the government para-vets are the most preferred type of animal health service providers while CAHWs are the least preferred. Reasons for this observation include high transaction costs and low performance resulting from limited training. In areas with few or no government para-vets, farmers have resorted to self-treatment or to selling sick animals for consumption, which has undesirable health implications. These practices also result in significant financial losses for farmers. This paper finds that the CAHWs' system is insufficient for providing quality animal health services to the rural poor in marginal areas. Therefore, market-smart alternative solutions requiring strong public sector engagement to support livestock farmers in marginal areas and setting minimum training standards for animal health service providers merit policy consideration.
Modeling Types of Pedal Applications Using a Driving Simulator.

PubMed

Wu, Yuqing; Boyle, Linda Ng; McGehee, Daniel; Roe, Cheryl A; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to examine variations in drivers' foot behavior and identify factors associated with pedal misapplications. Few studies have focused on the foot behavior while in the vehicle and the mishaps that a driver can encounter during a potentially hazardous situation. A driving simulation study was used to understand how drivers move their right foot toward the pedals. The study included data from 43 drivers as they responded to a series of rapid traffic signal phase changes. Pedal application types were classified as (a) direct hit, (b) hesitated, (c) corrected trajectory, and (d) pedal errors (incorrect trajectories, misses, slips, or pressed both pedals). A mixed-effects multinomial logit model was used to predict the likelihood of one of these pedal applications, and linear mixed models with repeated measures were used to examine the response time and pedal duration given the various experimental conditions (stimuli color and location). Younger drivers had higher probabilities of direct hits when compared to other age groups. Participants tended to have more pedal errors when responding to a red signal or when the signal appeared to be closer. Traffic signal phases and locations were associated with pedal response time and duration. The response time and pedal duration affected the likelihood of being in one of the four pedal application types. Findings from this study suggest that age-related and situational factors may play a role in pedal errors, and the stimuli locations could affect the type of pedal application. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.
Lifetime income patterns and alcohol consumption: Investigating the association between long- and short-term income trajectories and drinking

PubMed Central

Cerdá, Magdalena; Johnson-Lawrence, Vicki; Galea, Sandro

2011-01-01

Lifetime patterns of income may be an important driver of alcohol use. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between long-term and short-term measures of income and the relative odds of abstaining, drinking lightly-moderately and drinking heavily. We used data from the US Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), a national population-based cohort that has been followed annually or biannually since 1968. We examined 3111 adult respondents aged 30-44 in 1997. Latent class growth mixture models with a censored normal distribution were used to estimate income trajectories followed by the respondent families from 1968-1997, while repeated measures multinomial generalized logit models estimated the odds of abstinence (no drinks per day) or heavy drinking (at least 3 drinks a day), relative to light/moderate drinking (<1-2 drinks a day), in 1999-2003. Lower income was associated with higher odds of abstinence and of heavy drinking, relative to light/moderate drinking. For example, belonging to a household with stable low income ($11-20,000) over 30 years was associated with 1.57 odds of abstinence, and 2.14 odds of heavy drinking in adulthood. The association between lifetime income patterns and alcohol use decreased in magnitude and became non-significant once we controlled for past-year income, education and occupation. Lifetime income patterns may have an indirect association with alcohol use, mediated through current socioeconomic conditions. PMID:21890256
Push or Pull: Changes in the Relative Risk and Growth of Entrepreneurship Among Older Households.

PubMed

Weller, Christian E; Wenger, Jeffrey B; Lichtenstein, Benyamin; Arcand, Carolyn

2018-03-19

Amid insufficient retirement savings and the growing need to work longer, it is important to understand why self-employment, especially entrepreneurship, has grown among older households. Older households may have been pushed into entrepreneurship by the growing risks of wage-and-salary employment as wages and jobs have become less stable. Alternatively, older households may have been pulled into entrepreneurship as the associated risks have declined, for instance, due to greater opportunities to diversify income away from risky business income. We examine the economic causes of the rise in entrepreneurship among older households. We use summary statistics and multinomial logit regressions to analyze the link between economic pressures in wage-and-salary employment, financial strength of entrepreneurship, and the presence and change of entrepreneurship among older households-aged 50 years or older. We use household data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances from 1989 to 2013. We find little support for the claim that increased economic pressures are correlated with rising entrepreneurship. Instead, our results suggest that the growth of older entrepreneurship is coincident with increasing access to dividend and interest income. We also find some evidence that access to Social Security and other annuity benefits increases the likelihood of self-employment. Implications: Entrepreneurship among older households increasingly correlates with income diversification. Policymakers interested in encouraging more entrepreneurship among older households could consider increased access to income diversification through social insurance.
Smallholder dairy sheep production and market channel development: an institutional perspective of rural Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

PubMed

Voors, M J; D'Haese, M

2010-08-01

The rural economy of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has been adapting to new economic and political realities. Especially important for rural areas has been the breakdown of the socialist market structure in agriculture, which meant the demise of cooperative structures and farmers gaining access to new market outlets. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential of dairy sheep farmers to enter into new contracts with buyers and to analyze why some farmers continue selling to traditional market outlets. Using survey data of dairy sheep farmers we studied the choice they make between 3 market outlets: (1) selling milk to a recently established large dairy processor, (2) selling milk to traditional small local processors, or (3) transforming milk on-farm into cheese and selling it at the farm gate or at local markets. The significance of determinants of choice for these markets were tested in a multinomial logit model, which showed that distance to the collection point of the large dairy processor was the most important determinant of whether farmers sold milk or made cheese, with those at a greater distance selling cheese. Furthermore, we analyzed the main sources of transaction costs in developing new market channels. Overcoming transport and transaction costs may contribute to higher income for the farmers and hence to improving their livelihoods. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Development of scales relating to professional development of community college administrators.

PubMed

Wolfe, Edward W; Van Der Linden, Kim E

2010-01-01

This article reports the results of an application of the Multidimensional Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Model (MRCMLM) to the measurement of professional development activities in which community college administrators participate. The analyses focus on confirmation of the factorial structure of the instrument, evaluation of the quality of the activities calibrations, examination of the internal structure of the instrument, and comparison of groups of administrators. The dimensionality analysis results suggest a five-dimensional model that is consistent with previous literature concerning career paths of community college administrators - education and specialized training, internal professional development and mentoring, external professional development, employer support, and seniority. The indicators of the quality of the activity calibrations suggest that measures of the five dimensions are adequately reliable, that the activities in each dimension are internally consistent, and that the observed responses to each activity are consistent with the expected values of the MRCMLM. The hierarchy of administrator measure means and of activity calibrations is consistent with substantive theory relating to professional development for community college administrators. For example, readily available activities that occur at the institution were most likely to be engaged in by administrators, while participation in selective specialized training institutes were the least likely activities. Finally, group differences with respect to age and title were consistent with substantive expectations - the greater the administrator's age and the higher the rank of the administrator's title, the greater the probability of having engaged in various types of professional development.
An application of the SF-6D to create heath values in Portuguese working age adults.

PubMed

Ferreira, Lara Noronha; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Pereira, Luís Nobre; Brazier, John

2008-01-01

This study describes the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of the Portuguese working age population and investigates sociodemographic differences. Subjects randomly selected from the working age population (n=2,459) were assessed using the SF-36v2 and converted into the preference-based SF-6D. The mean SF-6D utility value was 0.70 (range 0.63-0.73). The mean utility value was lower for the lower educational level than for the highest. Women, people living in rural areas and older adults reported lower levels of utility values. Non-parametric tests showed that health utility values were significantly related to employment; unskilled manual workers reported utility values lower than non-manual workers. For different diseases, mean utility values ranged from 0.58 (sexual diseases) to 0.66 (hepatic conditions). Cluster analysis was adopted to classify individuals into three groups according to their answers to the SF-6D dimensions. Multinomial logit regression was used to detect sociodemographic characteristics affecting the probability of following each cluster pattern. This study yielded normative data by age and gender for the SF-6D. The authors conclude that SF-6D is an effective tool for measuring HRQOL in the community so that different population groups can be compared. The preference-based measure used seems to discriminate adequately across sociodemographic differences. These results allow a better understanding of the impact of sociodemographic variables on the burden of illness perception.
Risk factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity in rural Honduras.

PubMed

Ben-Davies, Maureen E; Kinlaw, Alan; Estrada Del Campo, Yaniré; Bentley, Margaret E; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria

2014-01-01

To identify factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity among a sample of Honduran caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional study in which the dependent variable, household food insecurity, was measured using a fourteen-item questionnaire developed and validated in a population of similar cultural context. A predictive modelling strategy used backwards elimination in logistic regression and multinomial logit regression models to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for food insecurity. Rural Honduras in the department of Intibucá, between March and April 2009. Two-hundred and ninety-eight Honduran caregivers of children aged 6-18 months. Ninety-three per cent of households were classified as having some degree of food insecurity (mild, moderate or severe). After controlling for caregiver age and marital status, compared with caregivers with more than primary-school education, those with less than primary-school education had 3·47 (95% CI 1·34, 8·99) times the odds of severe food insecurity and 2·29 (95% CI 1·00, 5·25) times the odds of moderate food insecurity. Our results also found that child anthropometric status was not associated with the presence or severity of food insecurity. These results show that among the sociodemographic factors assessed, food insecurity in rural Honduras is associated with maternal education. Understanding key factors associated with food insecurity that are unique to Honduras can inform the design of interventions to effectively mitigate the negative impact of food insecurity on children.
Serum Nutritional Biomarkers and Their Associations with Sleep among US Adults in Recent National Surveys

PubMed Central

Beydoun, May A.; Gamaldo, Alyssa A.; Canas, Jose A.; Beydoun, Hind A.; Shah, Mauli T.; McNeely, Jessica M.; Zonderman, Alan B.

2014-01-01

Background The associations between nutritional biomarkers and measures of sleep quantity and quality remain unclear. Methods Cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2005–2006 were used. We selected 2,459 adults aged 20–85, with complete data on key variables. Five sleep measures were constructed as primary outcomes: (A) Sleep duration; (B) Sleep disorder; (C) Three factors obtained from factor analysis of 15 items and labeled as “Poor sleep-related daytime dysfunction” (Factor 1), “Sleepiness” (Factor 2) and “Sleep disturbance” (Factor 3). Main exposures were serum concentrations of key nutrients, namely retinol, retinyl esters, carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene), folate, vitamin B-12, total homocysteine (tHcy), vitamin C, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and vitamin E. Main analyses consisted of multiple linear, logistic and multinomial logit models. Results Among key findings, independent inverse associations were found between serum vitamin B-12 and sleep duration, 25(OH)D and sleepiness (as well as insomnia), and between folate and sleep disturbance. Serum total carotenoids concentration was linked to higher odds of short sleep duration (i.e. 5–6 h per night) compared to normal sleep duration (7–8 h per night). Conclusions A few of the selected serum nutritional biomarkers were associated with sleep quantity and quality. Longitudinal studies are needed to ascertain temporality and assess putative causal relationships. PMID:25137304
Agency and Market Area Factors Affecting Home Health Agency Supply Changes

PubMed Central

Porell, Frank W; Liu, Korbin; Brungo, David P

2006-01-01

Objective To use the natural experiment created by the Medicare interim payment system (IPS) to study supply change behavior of home health agencies (HHAs) in local market areas. Data Sources One hundred percent Medicare home health claims for 1996 and 1999, linked with Medicare Provider of Service and Denominator files, and the Area Resource File. Study Design Medicare home health care (HHC) claims data were used to distinguish HHAs that changed the local market supply of Medicare HHC by their market exit or by significant expansion or contraction of their geographic service area between 1996 and 1999 from other HHAs. Multinomial logit models were estimated to analyze how characteristics of agencies and the market areas in which they served were associated with these different agency-level supply changes. Principal Findings Changes in local HHA supply stemming from geographic service area expansions and contractions rivaled those owing to agency closures and market entries. Agencies at greater risk of closure and service area contraction tended to be smaller, newer, freestanding agencies, operating with more visit-intensive practice styles in markets with more competitor agencies. Except for having much less visit-intensive practice styles, similar attributes characterized agencies that increased local supply through service area expansion. Conclusions Supply changes by HHAs largely reflected rational market responses by agencies to significant changes in financial incentives associated with the Medicare IPS. Recently certified agencies were among the most dynamic providers. Supply changes were more likely among agencies operating in more competitive market environments. PMID:16987305

Agency and market area factors affecting home health agency supply changes.

PubMed

Porell, Frank W; Liu, Korbin; Brungo, David P

2006-10-01

To use the natural experiment created by the Medicare interim payment system (IPS) to study supply change behavior of home health agencies (HHAs) in local market areas. One hundred percent Medicare home health claims for 1996 and 1999, linked with Medicare Provider of Service and Denominator files, and the Area Resource File. Medicare home health care (HHC) claims data were used to distinguish HHAs that changed the local market supply of Medicare HHC by their market exit or by significant expansion or contraction of their geographic service area between 1996 and 1999 from other HHAs. Multinomial logit models were estimated to analyze how characteristics of agencies and the market areas in which they served were associated with these different agency-level supply changes. Changes in local HHA supply stemming from geographic service area expansions and contractions rivaled those owing to agency closures and market entries. Agencies at greater risk of closure and service area contraction tended to be smaller, newer, freestanding agencies, operating with more visit-intensive practice styles in markets with more competitor agencies. Except for having much less visit-intensive practice styles, similar attributes characterized agencies that increased local supply through service area expansion. Supply changes by HHAs largely reflected rational market responses by agencies to significant changes in financial incentives associated with the Medicare IPS. Recently certified agencies were among the most dynamic providers. Supply changes were more likely among agencies operating in more competitive market environments.
Maternal violence, victimization, and child physical punishment in Peru.

PubMed

Gage, Anastasia J; Silvestre, Eva A

2010-07-01

This study examined whether mothers' experience of violence was a risk factor for physical punishment. Data were derived from the nationally representative 2000 Peru Demographic and Family Health Survey. Participants were 12,601 currently married women who were living with biological children aged 0-17 years and were responsible for disciplining the children. A multinomial logit model was used to determine the probabilities of using no physical punishment, slapping/spanking only, beating only, and both slapping/spanking and beating to discipline children. The study found that childhood history of physical punishment, a greater variety of intimate partner emotional violence and experience of intimate partner physical violence increased significantly a mother's probability of using physical punishment with her children, even after controlling for confounding factors. A mother's history of physical violence victimization by someone other than the current partner was also a significant factor for beating children as opposed to using non-physical forms of punishment. Mothers were at substantially increased risk of using physical punishment if they were victims of parental physical violence in childhood, intimate partner violence in the current union, and physical violence by someone other than the current partner. Increased public education is needed of the negative consequences of intimate partner emotional and physical violence victimization for mothers' childrearing strategies. There is a need to integrate intimate partner violence into child welfare programs and develop effective screening mechanisms for maternal violence victimization and child maltreatment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
An Empirical Bayes Estimate of Multinomial Probabilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

multinomial probabilities has been considered from a decision theoretic point of view by Steinhaus (1957), Trybula (1958) and Rutkowska (1977). In a recent...variate Rypergeometric and Multinomial Distributions," Zastosowania Matematyki, 16, 9-21. Steinhaus , H. (1957), "The Problem of Estimation." Annals of
Modeling abundance using multinomial N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

Multinomial N-mixture models are a generalization of the binomial N-mixture models described in Chapter 6 to allow for more complex and informative sampling protocols beyond simple counts. Many commonly used protocols such as multiple observer sampling, removal sampling, and capture-recapture produce a multivariate count frequency that has a multinomial distribution and for which multinomial N-mixture models can be developed. Such protocols typically result in more precise estimates than binomial mixture models because they provide direct information about parameters of the observation process. We demonstrate the analysis of these models in BUGS using several distinct formulations that afford great flexibility in the types of models that can be developed, and we demonstrate likelihood analysis using the unmarked package. Spatially stratified capture-recapture models are one class of models that fall into the multinomial N-mixture framework, and we discuss analysis of stratified versions of classical models such as model Mb, Mh and other classes of models that are only possible to describe within the multinomial N-mixture framework.
Investigating risk factors of traffic casualties at private highway-railroad grade crossings in the United States.

PubMed

Haleem, Kirolos

2016-10-01

Private highway-railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) are intersections of highways and railroads on roadways that are not maintained by a public authority. Since no public authority maintains private HRGCs, fatal and injury crashes at these locations are of concern. However, no study has been conducted at private HRGCs to identify the safety issues that might exist and how to alleviate them. This study identifies the significant predictors of traffic casualties (including both injuries and fatalities) at private HRGCs in the U.S. using six years of nationwide crashes from 2009 to 2014. Two levels of injury severity were considered, injury (including fatalities and injuries) and no injury. The study investigates multiple predictors, e.g., temporal crash characteristics, geometry, railroad, traffic, vehicle, and environment. The study applies both the mixed logit and binary logit models. The mixed logit model was found to outperform the binary logit model. The mixed logit model revealed that drivers who did not stop, railroad equipment that struck highway users, higher train speeds, non-presence of advance warning signs, concrete road surface type, and cloudy weather were associated with an increase in injuries and fatalities. For example, a one-mile-per-hour higher train speed increases the probability of fatality by 22%. On the contrary, male drivers, PM peak periods, and presence of warning devices at both approaches were associated with a fatality reduction. Potential strategies are recommended to alleviate injuries and fatalities at private HRGCs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Multiple-Shrinkage Multinomial Probit Models with Applications to Simulating Geographies in Public Use Data.

PubMed

Burgette, Lane F; Reiter, Jerome P

2013-06-01

Multinomial outcomes with many levels can be challenging to model. Information typically accrues slowly with increasing sample size, yet the parameter space expands rapidly with additional covariates. Shrinking all regression parameters towards zero, as often done in models of continuous or binary response variables, is unsatisfactory, since setting parameters equal to zero in multinomial models does not necessarily imply "no effect." We propose an approach to modeling multinomial outcomes with many levels based on a Bayesian multinomial probit (MNP) model and a multiple shrinkage prior distribution for the regression parameters. The prior distribution encourages the MNP regression parameters to shrink toward a number of learned locations, thereby substantially reducing the dimension of the parameter space. Using simulated data, we compare the predictive performance of this model against two other recently-proposed methods for big multinomial models. The results suggest that the fully Bayesian, multiple shrinkage approach can outperform these other methods. We apply the multiple shrinkage MNP to simulating replacement values for areal identifiers, e.g., census tract indicators, in order to protect data confidentiality in public use datasets.
Widen NomoGram for multinomial logistic regression: an application to staging liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients.

PubMed

Ardoino, Ilaria; Lanzoni, Monica; Marano, Giuseppe; Boracchi, Patrizia; Sagrini, Elisabetta; Gianstefani, Alice; Piscaglia, Fabio; Biganzoli, Elia M

2017-04-01

The interpretation of regression models results can often benefit from the generation of nomograms, 'user friendly' graphical devices especially useful for assisting the decision-making processes. However, in the case of multinomial regression models, whenever categorical responses with more than two classes are involved, nomograms cannot be drawn in the conventional way. Such a difficulty in managing and interpreting the outcome could often result in a limitation of the use of multinomial regression in decision-making support. In the present paper, we illustrate the derivation of a non-conventional nomogram for multinomial regression models, intended to overcome this issue. Although it may appear less straightforward at first sight, the proposed methodology allows an easy interpretation of the results of multinomial regression models and makes them more accessible for clinicians and general practitioners too. Development of prediction model based on multinomial logistic regression and of the pertinent graphical tool is illustrated by means of an example involving the prediction of the extent of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C patients by routinely available markers.
An Odds Ratio Approach for Detecting DDF under the Nested Logit Modeling Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terzi, Ragip; Suh, Youngsuk

2015-01-01

An odds ratio approach (ORA) under the framework of a nested logit model was proposed for evaluating differential distractor functioning (DDF) in multiple-choice items and was compared with an existing ORA developed under the nominal response model. The performances of the two ORAs for detecting DDF were investigated through an extensive…
Identifying Measurement Disturbance Effects Using Rasch Item Fit Statistics and the Logit Residual Index.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mount, Robert E.; Schumacker, Randall E.

1998-01-01

A Monte Carlo study was conducted using simulated dichotomous data to determine the effects of guessing on Rasch item fit statistics and the Logit Residual Index. Results indicate that no significant differences were found between the mean Rasch item fit statistics for each distribution type as the probability of guessing the correct answer…
The Application of the Cumulative Logistic Regression Model to Automated Essay Scoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.; Sinharay, Sandip

2010-01-01

Most automated essay scoring programs use a linear regression model to predict an essay score from several essay features. This article applied a cumulative logit model instead of the linear regression model to automated essay scoring. Comparison of the performances of the linear regression model and the cumulative logit model was performed on a…
Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

PubMed

Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

2018-04-01

Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…
Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

PubMed

Malhotra, N K

1983-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.
Random preferences towards bioenergy environmental externalities: a case study of woody biomass based electricity in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Andres Susaeta; Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

This paper contrasts alternate methodological approaches of investigating public preferences, the random parameter logit (RPL) where tastes and preferences of respondents are assumed to be heterogeneous and the conditional logit (CL) approach where tastes and preferences remain fixed for individuals. We conducted a choice experiment to assess preferences for woody...
Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin

2016-10-01

Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile.

PubMed

Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.
Associations between birth health, maternal employment, and child care arrangement among a community sample of mothers with young children.

PubMed

Chiao, Chi; Chyu, Laura; Ksobiech, Kate

2014-01-01

Although a large body of literature exists on how different types of child care arrangements affect a child's subsequent health and sociocognitive development, little is known about the relationship between birth health and subsequent decisions regarding type of nonparental child care as well as how this relationship might be influenced by maternal employment. This study used data from the Los Angeles Families and Neighborhoods Survey (L.A.FANS). Mothers of 864 children (ages 0-5) provided information regarding birth weight, maternal evaluation of a child's birth health, child's current health, maternal employment, type of child care arrangement chosen, and a variety of socioeconomic variables. Child care options included parental care, relative care, nonrelative care, and daycare center. Multivariate analyses found that birth weight and subjective rating of birth health had similar effects on child care arrangement. After controlling for a child's age and current health condition, multinomial logit analyses found that mothers with children with poorer birth health are more likely to use nonrelative and daycare centers than parental care when compared to mothers with children with better birth health. The magnitude of these relationships diminished when adjusting for maternal employment. Working mothers were significantly more likely to use nonparental child care than nonemployed mothers. Results suggest that a child's health early in life is significantly but indirectly related to subsequent decisions regarding child care arrangements, and this association is influenced by maternal employment. Development of social policy aimed at improving child care service should take maternal and family backgrounds into consideration.
National newspaper portrayal of nursing homes: tone of coverage and its correlates.

PubMed

Miller, Edward A; Tyler, Denise A; Mor, Vincent

2013-01-01

The mass media can exert considerable influence over the relative saliency of different public policy concerns. Because emotional resonance can have a strong impact on how the general public and policy makers perceive specific issues, the purpose of this study is to characterize the tone of nursing home coverage in the national media. Keyword searches of LexisNexis were used to identify 1562 articles published in 4 national newspapers from 1999 to 2008. The content of each article was analyzed and tone, themes, prominence, focal entity, and geographic focus assessed. Multinomial logit was used to examine the correlates of tone. Most articles were negative (49.2%) or neutral (40.3%); few were positive (10.5%). Both positive and negative articles were considerably more likely than neutral articles (>10 times) to be an opinion piece. Negative articles were three quarters more likely to be on the front page and two thirds more likely to focus on industry actors. Positive articles were 10 times more likely to be about community actors and two and three quarters more likely to be about local issues. Positive articles were considerably more likely to be about quality; negative articles about negligence/fraud and natural disasters. Findings suggest that negative reporting predominates and its impact on public perceptions and government decision making may be reinforced by its prominence and focus on industry interests/behavior. The adverse impact of media coverage on the industry's reputation has likely influenced consumer care choices, particularly in light of growing competition from the home-based and community-based and assisted living sectors.
How do quality information and cost affect patient choice of provider in a tiered network setting? Results from a survey.

PubMed

Sinaiko, Anna D

2011-04-01

To assess how quality information from multiple sources and financial incentives affect consumer choice of physicians in tiered physician networks. Survey of a stratified random sample of Massachusetts state employees. Respondents were assigned a hypothetical structure with differential copayments for "Tier 1" (preferred) and "Tier 2" (nonpreferred) physicians. Half of respondents were told they needed to select a cardiologist, and half were told they needed to select a dermatologist. Patients were asked whether they would choose a Tier 1 doctor, a Tier 2 doctor, or had no preference in a case where they had no further quality information, a case where a family member or friend recommended a Tier 2 doctor, and a case where their personal physician recommended a Tier 2 doctor. The effects of copayments, recommendations, physician specialty, and patient characteristics on the reported probability of selecting a Tier 1 doctor are analyzed using multinomial logit and logistic regression. Relative to a case where there is no copayment differential between tiers, copayment differences of U.S.$10-U.S.$35 increase the number of respondents indicating they would select a Tier 1 physician by 3.5-11.7 percent. Simulations suggest copayments must exceed U.S.$300 to counteract the recommendation for a lower tiered physician from friends, family, or a referring physician. Sensitivity to the copayments varied with physician specialty. Tiered provider networks with these copayment levels appear to have limited influence on physician choice when contradicted by other trusted sources. Consumers' response likely varies with physician specialty. © Health Research and Educational Trust.
Physical Fitness, Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, or Diet-What Are the Correlates of Obesity in Polish School Children?

PubMed

Czyż, Stanisław H; Toriola, Abel L; Starościak, Wojciech; Lewandowski, Marek; Paul, Yvonne; Oyeyemi, Adewale L

2017-06-20

There is substantial evidence of rising prevalence of overweight and obesity and its co-morbidities among children in western-high income developed countries. In the European Union, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing fastest among Polish children. Yet, there is paucity of evidence on the relationship of behavioral factors with body weight status of children in Poland. This study examined the association of obesity with physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and diet among Polish children. A total of 641 children (10-15 years) recruited from the Lower Silesia region of Poland participated in this cross-sectional study. Participants' anthropometrics, physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and dietary intake were assessed. Outcome variables were weight categories (according to body mass index [BMI], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and percentage body fat [% BF]). The strongest negative correlation was found between VO₂max and %BF ( r = -0.39, p <0.05). Significant negative correlation was also found between VO₂max and weight categories ( r = -0.15). Results of the multinomial logit analysis showed that VO₂max increased in groups of overweight, normal weight and underweight children by 13%, 26% and 19%, respectively as compared to the group of obese children. VO₂max and weight and obesity indices were strongly correlated in both gender and age groups. Education and intervention programs to increase physical fitness (VO₂max) through aerobic training are recommended for Physical Education teachers, parents and children in order to reduce the rate of overweight and obesity among children in the Lower Silesia region of Poland.

Intergenerational Transfers of Preferences for Science Careers in Comparative Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikora, Joanna; Pokropek, Artur

2012-11-01

Using data from 24 countries, which participated in the 2006 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), we examine the relationship between parental science employment and students' career expectations. In contrast to prior PISA-based studies, we find that the link between parental employment and adolescent plans to work in science is non-trivial and merits attention. In this context, we consider three versions of the gender socialisation hypothesis. The strong variant posits that girls' plans are shaped solely by their mothers' career pathways while boys model their expectations exclusively on fathers' occupations. The weaker version of this hypothesis expects children to be influenced more by the same-sex than by the opposite-sex parent. Finally, the third possibility is that, as egalitarian ideologies prevail, parents inspire adolescent occupational plans regardless of gender. These hypotheses are assessed separately for student career plans related to biology, agriculture and health (BAH) in contrast to computing, engineering and mathematics (CEM), because the involvement in these fields of science is known to be segregated by gender. Using two-level multinomial logit modelling, we find some support for the weak version of the gender socialisation hypothesis. Although within-family transfers of preferences for science careers vary considerably across countries, we note certain regularities. In many nations, relevant paternal employment enhances sons' interest in science careers regardless of their field. In contrast, maternal employment inspires daughters in fewer countries and this influence tends to be limited to careers in BAH. We discuss the possible implications of these findings for science educators.
Patient and nurse preferences for implementation of bedside handover: Do they agree? Findings from a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Whitty, Jennifer A; Spinks, Jean; Bucknall, Tracey; Tobiano, Georgia; Chaboyer, Wendy

2017-08-01

To describe and compare patients' and nurses' preferences for the implementation of bedside handover. Discrete choice experiment describing handover choices using six characteristics: whether the patient is invited to participate; whether a family member/carer/friend is invited; the number of nurses present; the level of patient involvement; the information content; and privacy. Two Australian hospitals. Adult patients (n=401) and nurses (n=200) recruited from medical wards. Mean importance scores for handover characteristics estimated using mixed multinomial logit regression of the choice data. Both patient and nurse participants preferred handover at the bedside rather than elsewhere (P<.05). Being invited to participate, supporting strong two-way communication, having a family member/carer/friend present and having two nurses rather than the nursing team present were most important for patients. Patients being invited to participate and supporting strong two-way communication were most important for nurses. However, contrary to patient preferences, having a family member/carer/friend present was not considered important by nurses. Further, while patients expressed a weak preference to have sensitive information handed over quietly at the bedside, nurses expressed a relatively strong preference for handover of sensitive information verbally away from the bedside. All participants strongly support handover at the bedside and want patients to participate although patient and nurse preferences for various aspects of bedside handover differ. An understanding of these preferences is expected to support recommendations for improving the patient hospital experience and the consistent implementation of bedside handover as a safety initiative. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020.

PubMed

Xu, Xibao; Yang, Guishan; Tan, Yan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Li, Hengpeng; Wan, Rongrong; Su, Weizhong; Zhang, Jian

2016-06-01

There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystem services (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Aspects of research and development contract terms in the bio/pharmaceutical sector.

PubMed

Banerjee, Tannista

2012-01-01

The cost of new drug development is increasing every year. Pharmaceutical companies use R&D joint ventures, mergers, and outsource different stages of pharmaceutical R&D activities for a faster and cost minimizing method of innovation. Pharmaceutical companies outsource R&D activities to independent small biotech or pharmaceutical companies that specialize in different stages of pharmaceutical R&D. This chapter examines the determinants of the payment structure of research contracts between large bio/pharmaceutical companies and specialized research firms. Determinants of R&D contracts are analyzed using detailed R&D contract data between bio/pharmaceutical companies and independent research firms for 10 years. A multinomial logit model is used in order to understand the determinants of three different types of contracts; royalty contracts, fixed payment contracts, and the mixed contracts. Under uncertainty, the likelihood of a royalty contract rises for the early stages of the research and with the patent stock of the research firm. It is more likely to observe both royalty and fixed payment if the pharmaceutical client has past contracts with the same research firm. The results also suggest that if Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is more stringent in any disease area in reviewing the new drug application, then the likelihood of signing pure royalty contract decreases. Understanding the nature of R&D contracts and the effects of FDA's behavior on the pharmaceutical R&D contract is important because these contracts not only affect the cost of new drug invention but also the quality and the rate of invention. VALUE: Results are useful for both the pharmaceutical companies and the economic/business researchers.
Vaccine preferences and acceptance of older adults.

PubMed

Eilers, R; de Melker, H E; Veldwijk, J; Krabbe, P F M

2017-05-15

Expanding vaccination programs for the older population might be important as older adults are becoming a larger proportion of the general population. The aim of this study is to determine the relative importance of vaccine and disease specific characteristics and acceptance for Dutch older adults, including pneumococcal disease, herpes zoster, pertussis vaccination, and influenza vaccination. A discrete choice experiment was conducted to generate choice data that was analyzed using a mixed multinomial logit statistical model. Important factors that were associated with vaccination acceptance in older adults are high mortality risk of the infectious disease, high susceptibility of getting the infectious disease, and high vaccine effectiveness. Age, influenza vaccination in 2013 and self-perceived health score were identified as personal factors that affect vaccine preference. Potential vaccination rates of older adults were estimated at 68.1% for pneumococcal vaccination, 58.1% for herpes zoster vaccination, 53.9% for pertussis vaccination and 54.3% for influenza vaccination. For persons aged 50-65, potential vaccination rates were estimated at 58.1% for pneumococcal vaccination, 49.5% for herpes zoster vaccination, 43.9% for pertussis vaccination and 42.2% for influenza vaccination. For persons aged 65 and older, these were respectively 76.2%, 67.5%, 57.5% and 65.5%. Our results suggest that older adults are most likely to accept pneumococcal vaccination of the four vaccines. Information provision accompanied with the implementation of a new vaccine has to be tailored for the individual and the vaccine it concerns. Special attention is needed to ensure high uptake among persons aged 50-65years. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Subsidies and the Demand for Individual Health Insurance in California

PubMed Central

Susan Marquis, M; Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Escarce, José J; Kapur, Kanika; Yegian, Jill M

2004-01-01

Objective To estimate the effect of changes in premiums for individual insurance on decisions to purchase individual insurance and how this price response varies among subgroups of the population. Data Source Survey responses from the Current Population Survey (), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (), the National Health Interview Survey (), and data about premiums and plans offered in the individual insurance market in California, 1996–2001. Study Design A logit model was used to estimate the decisions to purchase individual insurance by families without access to group insurance. This was modeled as a function of premiums, controlling for family characteristics and other characteristics of the market. A multinomial model was used to estimate the choice between group coverage, individual coverage, and remaining uninsured for workers offered group coverage as a function of premiums for individual insurance and out-of-pocket costs of group coverage. Principal Findings The elasticity of demand for individual insurance by those without access to group insurance is about −.2 to −.4, as has been found in earlier studies. However, there are substantial differences in price responses among subgroups with low-income, young, and self-employed families showing the greatest response. Among workers offered group insurance, a decrease in individual premiums has very small effects on the choice to purchase individual coverage versus group coverage. Conclusions Subsidy programs may make insurance more affordable for some families, but even sizeable subsidies are unlikely to solve the problem of the uninsured. We do not find evidence that subsidies to individual insurance will produce an unraveling of the employer-based health insurance system. PMID:15333122
Can a publicly funded home care system successfully allocate service based on perceived need rather than socioeconomic status? A Canadian experience.

PubMed

Laporte, Audrey; Croxford, Ruth; Coyte, Peter C

2007-03-01

The present quantitative study evaluates the degree to which socioeconomic status (SES), as opposed to perceived need, determines utilisation of publicly funded home care in Ontario, Canada. The Registered Persons Data Base of the Ontario Health Insurance Plan was used to identify the age, sex and place of residence for all Ontarians who had coverage for the complete calendar year 1998. Utilisation was characterised in two dimensions: (1) propensity - the probability that an individual received service, which was estimated using a multinomial logit equation; and (2) intensity - the amount of service received, conditional on receipt. Short- and long-term service intensity were modelled separately using ordinary least squares regression. Age, sex and co-morbidity were the best predictors (P < 0.0001) of whether or not an individual received publicly funded home care as well as how much care was received, with sicker individuals having increased utilisation. The propensity and intensity of service receipt increased with lower SES (P < 0.0001), and decreased with the proportion of recent immigrants in the region (P < 0.0001), after controlling for age, sex and co-morbidity. Although the allocation of publicly funded home care service was primarily based on perceived need rather than ability to pay, barriers to utilisation for those from areas with a high proportion of recent immigrants were identified. Future research is needed to assess whether the current mix and level of publicly funded resources are indeed sufficient to offset the added costs associated with the provision of high-quality home care.
The emotional and practical experiences of formula-feeding mothers.

PubMed

Fallon, Victoria; Komninou, Sophia; Bennett, Kate M; Halford, Jason C G; Harrold, Joanne A

2017-10-01

The majority of infant-feeding research is focused on identifying mother's reasons for the cessation of breastfeeding. The experience of mothers who choose to use formula is largely overlooked in quantitative designs. This study aimed to describe the emotional and practical experiences of mothers who formula feed in any quantity, and examine whether these experiences would vary among different cohorts of formula-feeding mothers according to prenatal feeding intention and postnatal feeding method. A total of 890 mothers of infants up to 26 weeks of age, who were currently formula feeding in any quantity, were recruited through relevant international social media sites via advertisements providing a link to an online survey. Predictors of emotional experiences included guilt, stigma, satisfaction, and defense as a result of their infant feeding choices. Practical predictor variables included support received from health professionals, respect displayed by their everyday environment, and main sources of infant feeding information. Descriptive findings from the overall sample highlighted a worryingly high percentage of mother's experienced negative emotions as a result of their decision to use formula. Multinomial logit models revealed that negative emotions such as guilt, dissatisfaction, and stigma were directly associated with feeding intention and method. The evidence suggests that the current approach to infant-feeding promotion and support may be paradoxically related to significant issues with emotional well-being. These findings support criticisms of how infant-feeding recommendations are framed by health care professionals and policy makers, and highlight a need to address formula feeding in a more balanced, woman-centered manner. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.
Using choice-based conjoint to determine the relative importance of dental benefit plan attributes.

PubMed

Cunningham, M A; Gaeth, G J; Juang, C; Chakraborty, G

1999-05-01

The purpose of this study was to use conjoint analysis to determine the importance of specific dental benefit plan features for University of Iowa (UI) staff and to build a model to predict enrollment. From a random sample of 2000 UI staff, 40 percent responded (N = 773). The survey instrument was developed using seven attributes (five dental benefit plan features and two facility characteristics) each offered at three levels (e.g., premium = $20, $15, $10/month). Pilot testing was used to find a realistic range of plan options. Twenty-seven hypothetical dental benefit plans were developed using fractional factorial combinations of the three levels for each of the seven attributes. For all of the hypothetical plans, dental care was to be provided in the UI predoctoral dental clinic. Plan profiles were arranged four per page by combining the existing plan with three hypothetical plans, for a total of nine pages. Respondents' task was to select one plan from each set of four. A regression-like statistical model (Multinomial Logit) was used to estimate importance of each attribute and each attribute level. Relative importance (and coefficients) for each of the seven attributes are as follows: maximum annual benefit (.98), orthodontic coverage (.72), routine restorative (.70), major restorative (.67), time to complete treatment (.61), clinic hours of operation (.47), premium (.18). For each attribute, relative importance of each of three levels will also be presented. These coefficients for each level are used to predict enrollment for plans with specific combinations of the dental benefit plan features.
Citizen Participation in Patient Prioritization Policy Decisions: An Empirical and Experimental Study on Patients' Characteristics

PubMed Central

Diederich, Adele; Swait, Joffre; Wirsik, Norman

2012-01-01

Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031) was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status) as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected. PMID:22590619
Counseling during Maternal and Infant Health Visits and Postpartum Contraceptive use in Uttar Pradesh, India

PubMed Central

Rajan, Sowmya; Speizer, Ilene S.; Calhoun, Lisa M.; Nanda, Priya

2017-01-01

Context Postpartum family planning is a compelling concern of global significance due to its salience to unplanned pregnancies, and to maternal and infant health in developing countries. Yet, women face the highest level of unmet need for contraception in the year following a birth. A cost-effective way to inform women about their risk of becoming pregnant after the birth of a child is to integrate family planning counseling and services with maternal and infant health services. Methods We use recently collected survey data from 2733 women from six cities in Uttar Pradesh, India who had a recent birth (since 2011) to examine the role of exposure to family planning information at maternal and infant health visits on (1) any contraceptive use in the postpartum period, and (2) choice of modern method in the postpartum period. We use discrete-time event history multinomial logit models to examine the duration to contraceptive use, and choice of modern method, in the 12 months following the last birth since 2011. Results We find that receiving counseling in an institution at the time of delivery has the strongest influence on women’s subsequent uptake of modern contraception (female sterilization and IUD). Being visited by a CHW in the extended postpartum period was also strongly associated with subsequent uptake of modern contraception (IUD, condom and hormonal contraception). Conclusion Providing postpartum family planning counseling at key junctures during maternal health visits has the potential to increase uptake of modern contraceptive method in urban Uttar Pradesh. PMID:28649295
Logit-normal mixed model for Indian monsoon precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-09-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon precipitation is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Four GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data. The logit-normal model was applied to light, moderate, and extreme rainfall. Findings indicated that physical constructs were preserved by the models, and random effects were significant in many cases. We also found GLMM estimation methods were sensitive to tuning parameters and assumptions and therefore, recommend use of multiple methods in applications. This work provides a novel use of GLMM and promotes its addition to the gamut of tools for analysis in studying climate phenomena.
Using a metal detector to determine lead sinker abundance in waterbird habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duerr, A.E.; DeStefano, S.

2000-01-01

Waterbirds have died of lead poisoning from ingesting lead fishing sinkers in the United States and Europe. Estimating abundance and distribution of sinkers in the environment will help researchers to understand the potential effects of lead poisoning from sinker ingestion. We used a metal detector to test how environmental conditions and sinker characteristics affected detection of sinkers. Odds of detecting a lead sinker depended on the interaction of sinker mass and depth where it was buried (P=0.002). The odds of detecting a sinker increased with mass and decreased with depth buried. Lead split-shot sinkers were less detectable than tin, brass, and stainless steel sinkers. Detecting lead sinkers was not influenced by sinker shape, substrate type, or whether we searched underwater or on land. We developed a model to determine the proportion of sinkers detected when this detector is used to search for sinkers, so sinker abundance can be estimated. The log odds (Logit) of detecting a lead sinker with mass M g buried D cm below the surface was Logit Y= -1.63 + 4.20 M - 0.45 D - 0.27 MD + 0.0002 D2. The probability of detecting a lead sinker was e(Logit Y)/(1 + e(Logit Y)). At the surface, 90% of sinkers with mass 0.9 g will be detected.
Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-03-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.
Strategies for controlling item exposure in computerized adaptive testing with the partial credit model.

PubMed

Davis, Laurie Laughlin; Dodd, Barbara G

2008-01-01

Exposure control research with polytomous item pools has determined that randomization procedures can be very effective for controlling test security in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The current study investigated the performance of four procedures for controlling item exposure in a CAT under the partial credit model. In addition to a no exposure control baseline condition, the Kingsbury-Zara, modified-within-.10-logits, Sympson-Hetter, and conditional Sympson-Hetter procedures were implemented to control exposure rates. The Kingsbury-Zara and the modified-within-.10-logits procedures were implemented with 3 and 6 item candidate conditions. The results show that the Kingsbury-Zara and modified-within-.10-logits procedures with 6 item candidates performed as well as the conditional Sympson-Hetter in terms of exposure rates, overlap rates, and pool utilization. These two procedures are strongly recommended for use with partial credit CATs due to their simplicity and strength of their results.
Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

2013-01-01

Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.
Demand for Health Insurance by Military Retirees

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

Plans,” The Journal of Health Economics 16, No. 2 (1997): 231–247 and Bruce A. Strombom, Thomas C. Buchmueller, and Paul J. Feldstein, “Switching Costs...Initiative: Volume 3. Health Care Utilization and Costs,” R -4244/3-HA (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1993). 10 probit regression model for TRICARE...Solomon (1998) Stanford University employees, panel data, 1994–95 HMO vs. PPO and FFS Logit -0.29 Fixed-Effects Logit -0.97 Barringer and Mitchell
Safety performance of traffic phases and phase transitions in three phase traffic theory.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin

2015-12-01

Crash risk prediction models were developed to link safety to various phases and phase transitions defined by the three phase traffic theory. Results of the Bayesian conditional logit analysis showed that different traffic states differed distinctly with respect to safety performance. The random-parameter logit approach was utilized to account for the heterogeneity caused by unobserved factors. The Bayesian inference approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used for the estimation of the random-parameter logit model. The proposed approach increased the prediction performance of the crash risk models as compared with the conventional logit model. The three phase traffic theory can help us better understand the mechanism of crash occurrences in various traffic states. The contributing factors to crash likelihood can be well explained by the mechanism of phase transitions. We further discovered that the free flow state can be divided into two sub-phases on the basis of safety performance, including a true free flow state in which the interactions between vehicles are minor, and a platooned traffic state in which bunched vehicles travel in successions. The results of this study suggest that a safety perspective can be added to the three phase traffic theory. The results also suggest that the heterogeneity between different traffic states should be considered when estimating the risks of crash occurrences on freeways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Working hours and depressive symptoms over 7 years: evidence from a Korean panel study.

PubMed

Ahn, Seoyeon

2018-04-01

This study aims to examine how working hours influence depressive symptoms and the association between working hours and depressive symptoms differently across genders. The sample consists of salaried workers aged 25-64 years who participated in two consecutive waves of the seven-wave Korean Welfare Panel Study (2007-2013) (n = 6813 individuals, 27,986 observations) which is a survey of a nationally representative sample of the South Korean population. I apply logit regression and fixed-effects logit regression to examine the causal relation between (intra-)individual changes of working hours and depressive symptoms over a 7-year period. Results from logit model and fixed-effects logit model show that less than 30 h of work per week and more than 60 h of work per week are associated with significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms. Sex-stratified analyses reveal that women who worked over 60 h per week were at increased risk of showing depressive symptoms compared with women who worked 30-40 h per week. No significant increase in depressive symptoms was seen in men who worked more than 60 h per week. However, men working less than 30 h per week are more likely to report higher levels of depressive symptoms. These results suggest that work arrangement affects the mental health of men and women differently.

Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

2017-05-01

Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.
Dominance of Sterilization and Alternative Choices of Contraception in India: An Appraisal of the Socioeconomic Impact

PubMed Central

de Oliveira, Isabel Tiago; Dias, José G.; Padmadas, Sabu S.

2014-01-01

Background The recent decline in fertility in India has been unprecedented especially in southern India, where fertility is almost exclusively controlled by means of permanent contraceptive methods, mainly female sterilization, which constitutes about two-thirds of overall contraceptive use. Many Indian women undergo sterilization at relatively young ages as a consequence of early marriage and childbearing in short birth intervals. This research aims to investigate the socioeconomic factors determining the choices for alternative contraceptive choices against the dominant preference for sterilization among married women in India. Methods Data for this study are drawn from the 2005–06 National Family Health Surveys focusing on a sample of married women who reported having used a method of contraception in the five years preceding the survey. A multilevel multinomial logit regression is used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic factors on contraceptive choices, differentiating temporary modern or traditional methods versus sterilization. Findings Religious affiliation, women's education and occupation had overarching influence on method choices amongst recent users. Muslim women were at higher odds of choosing a traditional or modern temporary method than sterilization. Higher level of women's education increased the odds of modern temporary method choices but the education effect on traditional method choices was only marginally significant. Recent users belonging to wealthier households had higher odds of choosing modern methods over sterilization. Exposure to family planning messages through radio had a positive effect on modern and traditional method choices. Community variations in method choices were highly significant. Conclusion The persistent dominance of sterilization in the Indian family planning programme is largely determined by socioeconomic conditions. Reproductive health programmes should address the socioeconomic barriers and consider multiple cost-effective strategies such as mass media to promote awareness of modern temporary methods. PMID:24489759
Welfare recipients’ involvement with child protective services after welfare reform

PubMed Central

Nam, Yunju; Meezan, William; Danziger, Sandra K.

2007-01-01

Objective This study identifies factors associated with child protective services (CPS) involvement among current and former welfare recipients after welfare reform legislation was passed in the US in 1996. Method Data come from the Women’s Employment Study, a longitudinal study of randomly selected welfare recipients living in a Michigan city in 1997 (N = 541). In order to identify risk factors for CPS involvement among current and former welfare recipients, multinomial logit analyses with 29 independent variables were employed on a trichotomous dependent variable: no CPS involvement, investigation only, and supervision by CPS after investigation. Results The relationship between work and involvement with CPS differs by work experience prior to welfare reform. As the percentage of months working after welfare reform increased, the risk of being investigated by CPS declined among those with prior work experience but the risk increased among those without prior work experience. However, work variables were not significant predictors of supervision by CPS after an initial investigation. Further, race, cohabitation, childhood welfare receipt, having a learning disability, having a large number of children, being newly divorced, living in a high problem neighborhood, and being convicted of a crime were associated with one’s probability of being either investigated or supervised by CPS. Conclusions These findings suggest that employment could have increased the stress levels of current or former welfare recipients without prior work experience to the point where they were prone to minor child rearing mistakes that resulted in a CPS investigation, but were not severe enough to warrant opening the case for supervision. Supports should be provided to welfare mothers who are prone to involvement with CPS; expansions in the childcare subsidy and a reduction or delay in work requirements might also help these families. PMID:17116329
Welfare recipients' involvement with child protective services after welfare reform.

PubMed

Nam, Yunju; Meezan, William; Danziger, Sandra K

2006-11-01

This study identifies factors associated with child protective services (CPS) involvement among current and former welfare recipients after welfare reform legislation was passed in the US in 1996. Data come from the Women's Employment Study, a longitudinal study of randomly selected welfare recipients living in a Michigan city in 1997 (N=541). In order to identify risk factors for CPS involvement among current and former welfare recipients, multinomial logit analyses with 29 independent variables were employed on a trichotomous dependent variable: no CPS involvement, investigation only, and supervision by CPS after investigation. The relationship between work and involvement with CPS differs by work experience prior to welfare reform. As the percentage of months working after welfare reform increased, the risk of being investigated by CPS declined among those with prior work experience but the risk increased among those without prior work experience. However, work variables were not significant predictors of supervision by CPS after an initial investigation. Further, race, cohabitation, childhood welfare receipt, having a learning disability, having a large number of children, being newly divorced, living in a high problem neighborhood, and being convicted of a crime were associated with one's probability of being either investigated or supervised by CPS. These findings suggest that employment could have increased the stress levels of current or former welfare recipients without prior work experience to the point where they were prone to minor child rearing mistakes that resulted in a CPS investigation, but were not severe enough to warrant opening the case for supervision. Supports should be provided to welfare mothers who are prone to involvement with CPS; expansions in the childcare subsidy and a reduction or delay in work requirements might also help these families.
Evaluation of motorcycle safety strategies using the severity of injuries.

PubMed

Jung, Soyoung; Xiao, Qin; Yoon, Yoonjin

2013-10-01

The growth of motorcycle fatalities in California has been especially prominent, specifically with regard to the 24 and under age group and those aged 45-54. This research quantitatively examined factors associated with motorcyclist fatalities and assessed strategies that could improve motorcyclist safety, specifically focusing on the two age groups mentioned above. Severity of injury was estimated separately for both age groups with multinomial logit models and pseudo-elasticity using motorcycle-related collision data that was collected between 2005 and 2009. The results were compared with motorcyclists aged 35-44, a group that shows a consistent trend of fatalities. This research found that lack or improper use of helmets, victim ejection, alcohol/drug effects, collisions (head-on, broadside, hit-object), and truck involvement were more likely to result in fatal injuries regardless of age group. Weekend and non-peak hour activity was found to have a strong effect in both the younger and older age groups. Two factors, movement of running off the road preceding a collision and multi-vehicle involvement, were found to be statistically significant factors in increasing older motorcyclist fatalities. Use of street lights in the dark was found to decrease the probability of severe injury for older motorcyclists. Driver type of victim, at-fault driver, local road, and speed violation were significant factors in increasing the fatalities of younger motorcyclists. Road conditions and collision location factors were not found to be statistically significant to motorcyclist fatalities. Based on the statistically significant factors identified in this research, the following safety strategies appear to be effective methods of reducing motorcyclist fatalities: public education of alcohol use, promoting helmet use, enforcing heavy vehicle and speed violations, improving roadway facilities, clearer roadway guidance and street lighting systems, and motorcyclist training. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Frequency and predictors of psychological distress after a diagnosis of epilepsy: A community-based study.

PubMed

Xu, Ying; Hackett, Maree L; Glozier, Nick; Nikpour, Armin; Bleasel, Andrew; Somerville, Ernest; Lawson, John; Jan, Stephen; Hyde, Lorne; Todd, Lisa; Martiniuk, Alexandra; Ireland, Carol; Anderson, Craig S

2017-10-01

The objective of the study was to determine the frequency and predictors of psychological distress after a diagnosis of epilepsy. The Sydney Epilepsy Incidence Study to Measure Illness Consequences (SEISMIC) was a prospective, multicenter, community-based study of people of all ages with newly diagnosed epilepsy in Sydney, Australia. Analyses involved multivariate logistic regression and multinomial logit regression to identify predictors of psychological distress, assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), as part of structured interviews. Psychological distress occurred in 33% (95% confidence interval [CI] 26 to 40%) and 24% (95% CI 18 to 31%) of 180 adults at baseline and 12months, respectively, and 23% (95% CI 14 to 33%) of 77 children at both time points. Thirty adults and 7 children had distress at baseline who recovered at 12months, while 15 adults and 7 children had new onset of distress during this period. History of psychiatric or behavioral disorder (for adults, odds ratio [OR] 6.82, 95% CI 3.08 to 15.10; for children, OR 28.85, 95% CI 2.88 to 288.60) and higher psychosocial disability (adults, OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.27) or lower family functioning (children, OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.02) were associated with psychological distress (C statistics 0.80 and 0.78). Psychological distress is common and fluctuates in frequency after a diagnosis of epilepsy. Those with premorbid psychological, psychosocial, and family problems are at high risk of this adverse outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Consumer preferences for electronic cigarettes: results from a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Czoli, Christine D; Goniewicz, Maciej; Islam, Towhidul; Kotnowski, Kathy; Hammond, David

2016-04-01

E-cigarettes present a formidable challenge to regulators given their variety and the rapidly evolving nicotine market. The current study sought to examine the influence of e-cigarette product characteristics on consumer perceptions and trial intentions among Canadians. An online discrete choice experiment was conducted with 915 Canadians aged 16 years and older in November 2013. An online commercial panel was used to sample 3 distinct subpopulations: (1) non-smoking youth and young adults (n=279); (2) smoking youth and young adults (n=264) and (3) smoking adults (n=372). Participants completed a series of stated-preference tasks, in which they viewed choice sets with e-cigarette product images that featured different combinations of attributes: flavour, nicotine content, health warnings and price. For each choice set, participants were asked to select one of the products or indicate 'none of the above' with respect to the following outcomes: interest in trying, less harm and usefulness in quitting smoking. The attributes' impact on consumer choice for each outcome was analysed using multinomial logit regression. Health warning was the most important attribute influencing participants' intentions to try e-cigarettes (42%) and perceived efficacy as a quit aid (39%). Both flavour (36%) and health warnings (35%) significantly predicted perceptions of product harm. The findings indicate that consumers make trade-offs with respect to e-cigarette product characteristics, and that these trade-offs vary across different subpopulations. Given that health warnings and flavour were weighted most important by consumers in this study, these may represent good targets for e-cigarette regulatory frameworks. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Patient Preferences for Managing Insomnia: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

PubMed

Cheung, Janet M Y; Bartlett, Delwyn J; Armour, Carol L; Saini, Bandana; Laba, Tracey-Lea

2018-03-03

Despite the rapid development of effective treatments, both pharmacological and non-pharmacological, insomnia management remains suboptimal at the practice interface. Patient preferences play a critical role in influencing treatment outcomes. However, there is currently a mismatch between patient preferences and clinician recommendations, partly perpetuated by a limited understanding of the patients' decision-making process. The aim of our study was to empirically quantify patient preferences for treatment attributes common to both pharmacological and non-pharmacological insomnia treatments. An efficient dual-response discrete choice experiment was conducted to evaluate patient treatment preferences for managing insomnia. The sample included 205 patients with self-reported insomnia and an Insomnia Severity Index ≥ 14. Participants were presented with two unlabelled hypothetical scenarios with an opt-out option across 12 choice sets. Data were analyzed using a mixed multinomial logit model to investigate the influence of five attributes (i.e. time, onset of action, maintainability of improved sleep, length of treatment, and monthly cost) on treatment preferences. Treatments were preferentially viewed if they conferred long-term sleep benefits (p < 0.05); had an ongoing, as opposed to a predefined, duration of treatment course (p < 0.05); required some, as opposed to no, additional time commitment (p < 0.05); and had lower monthly out-of-pocket treatment costs (p < 0.001). However, treatment onset of action had no influence on preference. Age, help-seeking status, concession card status and fatigue severity significantly influenced treatment preference. Participants' prioritization of investing time in treatment and valuing the maintainability of therapeutic gains suggests a stronger inclination towards non-pharmacological treatment, defying current assumptions that patients prefer 'quick-fixes' for managing insomnia.
Patient preferences for outcomes of depression treatment in Germany: a choice-based conjoint analysis study.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Thomas M; Clouth, Johannes; Elosge, Michael; Heurich, Matthias; Schneider, Edith; Wilhelm, Stefan; Wolfrath, Anette

2013-06-01

In general, treatment efficacy in depressed patients is evaluated mainly based on the core symptoms of depression. However, patients might consider different outcomes. This study used choice-based conjoint analysis (CBC) to evaluate patient preferences for depression treatment outcomes. Adult subjects from Germany, currently or previously on antidepressant treatment, were presented with 18 pairs of hypothetical treatment outcome scenarios, differing in eight attributes (2-3 factor levels each): depressed mood, loss of interest and enjoyment, loss of energy/fatigue, sleep disturbance, feelings of guilt, depression-related pain, treatment duration, side effects after 2 weeks. Attributes and factor levels were defined by literature review, expert consultations, and in-depth subject interviews. Data were analyzed using multinomial logit modeling; individual part-worth utilities were estimated using hierarchical Bayes routines. Two hundred twenty-seven subjects (89.4% currently treated with antidepressants, 30.0% with depression-related pain) completed the survey. They valued the relative importance of outcomes as follows: loss of energy/fatigue 18.5%, side effects after 2 weeks 14.2%, loss of interest and enjoyment 13.5%, depression-related pain 12.0%, sleep disturbance 12.0%, feelings of guilt 11.5%, treatment duration 9.9%, depressed mood 8.5%. Participants were not required to meet ICD-10 or DSM-IV criteria for depression and had heterogeneous disease severity. CBC analysis was able to reveal patient preferences for outcomes of depression treatment. Subjects valued the ability to cope with activities of everyday living highest. They considered being free of depression-related pain and side effects more important than being free of depressed mood. These findings should be considered when making treatment decisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Obesity and the burden of health risks among the elderly in Ghana: A population study.

PubMed

Boateng, Godfred O; Adams, Ellis A; Odei Boateng, Mavis; Luginaah, Isaac N; Taabazuing, Mary-Margaret

2017-01-01

The causes and health risks associated with obesity in young people have been extensively documented, but elderly obesity is less well understood, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the relationship between obesity and the risk of chronic diseases, cognitive impairment, and functional disability among the elderly in Ghana. It highlights the social and cultural dimensions of elderly obesity and discusses the implications of related health risks using a socio-ecological model. We used data from wave 1 of the Ghana Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) survey-2007/8, with a restricted sample of 2,091 for those 65 years and older. Using random effects multinomial, ordered, and binary logit models, we examined the relationship between obesity and the risk of stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension, arthritis, difficulties with recall and learning new tasks, and deficiencies with activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living. Elderly Ghanaians who were overweight and obese had a higher risk of stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension, and were more likely to be diagnosed with arthritis and report severe deficiencies with instrumental activities of daily living. Those who were underweight were 1.71 times more likely to report severe difficulties with activities of daily living. A sub analysis using waist circumference as a measure of body fat showed elderly females with abdominal adiposity were relatively more likely to have stage 2 hypertension. These findings call for urgent policy initiatives geared towards reducing obesity among working adults given the potentially detrimental consequences in late adulthood. Future research should explore the gendered pathways leading to health disadvantages among Ghanaian women in late adulthood.
Assessing Medicare Part D Claim Completeness Using Medication Self-reports: The Role of Veteran Status and Generic Drug Discount Programs

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lei; Stearns, Sally C.; Thudium, Emily M.; Alburikan, Khalid A.; Rodgers, Jo Ellen

2015-01-01

Objective Medicare Part D claims are commonly used for research, but missing claims could compromise their validity. This study assessed two possible causes of missing claims: veteran status and Generic Drug Discount Programs (GDDP). Methods We merged medication self-reports from telephone interviews in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) with Part D claims for six medications (three were commonly in GDDP in 2009). Merged records (4,468) were available for 2,905 ARIC participants enrolled in Part D. Multinomial logit regression provided estimates of the association of concordance (self-report & Part D, self-report only, or Part D only) with veteran and GDDP status, controlling for participant socio-demographics. Results Sample participants were 74±5 years of age, 68% white and 63% female; 19% were male veterans. Compared to females, male veterans were 11% (95% CI: 7%–16%) less likely to have matched medications in self-report & Part D and 11% (95% CI: 7%–16%) more likely to have self-report only. Records for GDDP versus non-GDDP medications were 4% (95% CI: 1%–7%) more likely to be in self-report & Part D and 3% (95% CI: 1%–5%) less likely to be in Part D only, with no difference in self-report only. Conclusions Part D claims were more likely to be missing for veterans, but claims for medications commonly available through GDDP were more likely to match with self-reports. While researchers should be aware of the possibility of missing claims, GDDP status was associated with a higher rather than lower likelihood of claims being complete in 2009. PMID:25793271
The use of choice experiments in the analysis of tourist preferences for ecotourism development in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Hearne, Robert R; Salinas, Zenia M

2002-06-01

Many nations promote nature-based tourism in order to promote the dual goals of nature conservation and income generation. To be most effective in providing services that facilitate achievement of these goals, decision makers will need to understand and incorporate tourist preferences for nature appreciation, infrastructure, use restrictions, and other attributes of national parks and protected areas. This paper presents the use of choice experiments as a mechanism to analyze preferences of national and international tourists in relation to the development of Barva Volcano Area in Costa Rica. In this section of the Braulio Carrillo National Park, managers are faced with an immediate need to plan for greatly increased visitation rates due to a new road, which will greatly improve access. Choice sets were developed in collaboration with park managers. A survey was conducted of 171 Costa Rican and 271 foreign tourists who visited Poás Volcano, a well-visited alternative site to Barva Volcano. Survey data was analyzed using conditional multinomial logit models. Results of the study demonstrate, that both sets of tourists preferred: (i) improved infrastructure; (ii) aerial trams with observation towers and picnic areas; (iii) more information; and (iv) low entrance fees. Foreign tourists demonstrated strong preferences for the inclusion of restrictions in the access to some trails, whereas Costa Ricans did not show any significant preference for restrictions. Marginal willingness-to-pay for greater information was estimated to be $1.54 for foreign tourists and $1.01 for Costa Rican visitors. The study concludes that choice experiments are a useful tool in the analyses of tourist preferences for the development of protected areas in developing countries.
Women's Benefits and Harms Trade-Offs in Breast Cancer Screening: Results from a Discrete-Choice Experiment.

PubMed

Sicsic, Jonathan; Pelletier-Fleury, Nathalie; Moumjid, Nora

2018-01-01

Over the past decade, the benefits and harms balance of breast cancer (BC) screening has been widely debated. To elicit women's trade-offs between the benefits and harms of BC screening and to analyze the main determinants of these trade-offs. A discrete-choice experiment with seven attributes depicting BC screening programs including varying levels of BC mortality, overdiagnosis, and false-positive result was used. Eight hundred twelve women aged 40 to 74 years with no personal history of BC recruited by a survey institute and representative of the French general population (age, socioeconomic level, and geographical location) completed the discrete-choice experiment. Preference heterogeneity was investigated using generalized multinomial logit models from which individual trade-offs were derived, and their main determinants were assessed using generalized linear models. Screening acceptance rates under various benefits and harms ratios were simulated on the basis of the distribution of individual preferences. The women would be willing to accept on average 14.1 overdiagnosis cases (median = 9.6) and 47.8 false-positive results (median = 27.2) to avoid one BC-related death. After accounting for preference heterogeneity, less than 50% of women would be willing to accept 10 overdiagnosis cases for one BC-related death avoided. Screening acceptance rates were higher among women with higher socioeconomic level and lower among women with poor health. Women are sensitive to both the benefits and the harms of BC screening and their preferences are highly heterogeneous. Our study provides useful results for public health authorities and clinicians willing to improve their recommendations of BC screening on the basis of women's preferences. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Measuring Care-Related Quality of Life of Caregivers for Use in Economic Evaluations: CarerQol Tariffs for Australia, Germany, Sweden, UK, and US.

PubMed

Hoefman, Renske J; van Exel, Job; Brouwer, Werner B F

2017-04-01

Informal care is often not included in economic evaluations in healthcare, while the impact of caregiving can be relevant for cost-effectiveness recommendations from a societal perspective. The impact of informal care can be measured and valued with the CarerQol instrument, which measures the impact of informal care on seven important burden dimensions (CarerQol-7D) and values this in terms of general quality of life (CarerQol-VAS). The CarerQol can be included at the effect side of multi-criteria analyses of patient interventions or in cost-effectiveness or utility analysis of interventions targeted at caregivers. At present, utility scores based on relative utility weights for the CarerQol-7D are only available for the Netherlands. This study calculates CarerQol-7D tariffs for Australia, Germany, Sweden, UK, and US. Data were collected among the general population in Australia, Germany, Sweden, UK, and US by an Internet survey. Utility weights were collected with a discrete choice experiment with two unlabeled alternatives described in terms of the seven CarerQol-7D dimensions. An efficient experimental design with priors obtained from the Netherlands was used to create the choice sets. Data was analyzed with a panel mixed multinomial logit model with random parameters. In all five countries, the CarerQol-7D dimensions were significantly associated with the utility of informal care situations. Physical health problems were most strongly associated with the utility for informal care situations. The tariff was constructed by adding up the relative utility weights per category of all CarerQol-7D dimensions for each country separately. The CarerQol tariffs for Australia, Germany, Sweden, UK, and US facilitate the inclusion of informal care in economic evaluations.
The impact of vaccination and patient characteristics on influenza vaccination uptake of elderly people: A discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Veldwijk, Jorien; Jonker, Marcel; Donkers, Bas; Huisman, Jan; Buis, Sylvia; Swait, Joffre; Lancsar, Emily; Witteman, Cilia L M; Bonsel, Gouke; Bindels, Patrick

2018-03-07

To improve information for patients and to facilitate a vaccination coverage that is in line with the EU and World Health Organization goals, we aimed to quantify how vaccination and patient characteristics impact on influenza vaccination uptake of elderly people. An online discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among 1261 representatives of the Dutch general population aged 60 years or older. In the DCE, we used influenza vaccination scenarios based on five vaccination characteristics: effectiveness, risk of severe side effects, risk of mild side effects, protection duration, and absorption time. A heteroscedastic multinomial logit model was used, taking scale and preference heterogeneity (based on 19 patient characteristics) into account. Vaccination and patient characteristics both contributed to explain influenza vaccination uptake. Assuming a base case respondent and a realistic vaccination scenario, the predicted uptake was 58%. One-way changes in vaccination characteristics and patient characteristics changed this uptake from 46% up to 61% and from 37% up to 95%, respectively. The strongest impact on vaccination uptake was whether the patient had been vaccinated last year, whether s/he had experienced vaccination side effects, and the patient's general attitude towards vaccination. Although vaccination characteristics proved to influence influenza vaccination uptake, certain patient characteristics had an even higher impact on influenza vaccination uptake. Policy makers and general practitioners can use these insights to improve their communication plans and information regarding influenza vaccination for individuals aged 60 years or older. For instance, physicians should focus more on patients who had experienced side effects due to vaccination in the past, and policy makers should tailor the standard information folder to patients who had been vaccinated last year and to patient who had not. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Association of Rotating Night Shift Work with BMI and Abdominal Obesity among Nurses and Midwives.

PubMed

Peplonska, Beata; Bukowska, Agnieszka; Sobala, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Mounting epidemiological evidence suggests that night shift work may contribute to the etiology of increased body weight. The present study aimed to examine association between rotating night shift work and body mass index (BMI), and abdominal adiposity respectively among nurses and midwives. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 724 female nurses and midwives, aged 40-60 years (354 rotating night shift and 370 daytime workers) in Łódź, Poland, between 2008 and 2011. Information about occupational history and potential confounders was collected during personal interviews. Anthropometric measurements of body weight, height, waist (WC) and hip (HC) circumference were made, and body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. GLM regression models and multinomial logit regression models were fitted to explore the association between night shift work and anthropometric parameters, with adjustment for age, body silhouette at age 20, current smoking status, packyears, marital status, and menopausal hormone therapy use. Cumulative night shift work showed significant associations with BMI, WC, HC and WHtR, with BMI increasing by 0.477 kg/m2 per 1000 night duties and by 0.432 kg/m2 per 10000 night shift hours, WC increasing respectively by 1.089 cm and 0.99 cm, and HC by 0.72 cm and WHtR by 0.007 cm for both metrics. Both current and cumulative night work was associated with obesity (BMI≥30kg/m2), with OR=3.9 (95%CI:1.5-9.9), in women reporting eight or more night shifts per month. The results of the study support the previously reported relations between night shift work and development of obesity.
Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

PubMed

Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

2017-11-01

Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Educational debt and intended employment choice among dental school seniors.

PubMed

Wanchek, Tanya; Nicholson, Sean; Vujicic, Marko; Menezes, Adriana; Ziebert, Anthony

2014-05-01

The authors examined the association between educational debt and dental school seniors' intended activity after graduation. The authors used multinomial logit regression analysis to estimate the relationship between dental educational debt and intended activity after graduation, controlling for potentially confounding variables. They used data from the 2004 through 2011 ADEA (American Dental Education Association) Survey of Dental School Seniors. Fourth-year dental school students with high levels of educational debt were more likely to express an interest in choosing to go into private practice, although the magnitude of this effect was relatively small. For each $10,000 increase in debt, the likelihood of choosing advanced education relative to private practice was 1.5 percent lower (relative risk ratio [RRR], 0.985 [95 percent confidence interval {CI}, 0.978-0.991]). For the same $10,000 increase in debt, the probability of choosing teaching, research and administration was 3.1 percent lower than that for choosing private practice (RRR, 0.969 [95 percent CI, 0.954-0.986]) and was 8.4 percent lower than that for choosing a government service position (RRR, 0.916 [95 percent CI, 0.908-0.924]). Although educational debt was statistically significant for predicting intended activity after graduation, the magnitude of influence of other variables such as sex, race and whether a parent is a dentist was substantially larger. Practical Implications Concerns regarding rising educational debt and its effect on the dental labor market may be misplaced. The characteristics of the dental school student body may be a more accurate predictor of employment choices that dental school seniors are making than are total educational debt levels.
Association of Rotating Night Shift Work with BMI and Abdominal Obesity among Nurses and Midwives

PubMed Central

Peplonska, Beata; Bukowska, Agnieszka; Sobala, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Background Mounting epidemiological evidence suggests that night shift work may contribute to the etiology of increased body weight. The present study aimed to examine association between rotating night shift work and body mass index (BMI), and abdominal adiposity respectively among nurses and midwives. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 724 female nurses and midwives, aged 40-60 years (354 rotating night shift and 370 daytime workers) in Łódź, Poland, between 2008 and 2011. Information about occupational history and potential confounders was collected during personal interviews. Anthropometric measurements of body weight, height, waist (WC) and hip (HC) circumference were made, and body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. GLM regression models and multinomial logit regression models were fitted to explore the association between night shift work and anthropometric parameters, with adjustment for age, body silhouette at age 20, current smoking status, packyears, marital status, and menopausal hormone therapy use. Results Cumulative night shift work showed significant associations with BMI, WC, HC and WHtR, with BMI increasing by 0.477 kg/m2 per 1000 night duties and by 0.432 kg/m2 per 10000 night shift hours, WC increasing respectively by 1.089 cm and 0.99 cm, and HC by 0.72 cm and WHtR by 0.007 cm for both metrics. Both current and cumulative night work was associated with obesity (BMI≥30kg/m2), with OR=3.9 (95%CI:1.5-9.9), in women reporting eight or more night shifts per month. Conclusion The results of the study support the previously reported relations between night shift work and development of obesity. PMID:26196859
Fresh meat packaging: consumer acceptance of modified atmosphere packaging including carbon monoxide.

PubMed

Grebitus, Carola; Jensen, Helen H; Roosen, Jutta; Sebranek, Joseph G

2013-01-01

Consumers' perceptions and evaluations of meat quality attributes such as color and shelf life influence purchasing decisions, and these product attributes can be affected by the type of fresh meat packaging system. Modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) extends the shelf life of fresh meat and, with the inclusion of carbon monoxide (CO-MAP), achieves significant color stabilization. The objective of this study was to assess whether consumers would accept specific packaging technologies and what value consumers place on ground beef packaged under various atmospheres when their choices involved the attributes of color and shelf life. The study used nonhypothetical consumer choice experiments to determine the premiums that consumers are willing to pay for extended shelf life resulting from MAP and for the "cherry red" color in meat resulting from CO-MAP. The experimental design allowed determination of whether consumers would discount foods with MAP or CO-MAP when (i) they are given more detailed information about the technologies and (ii) they have different levels of individual knowledge and media exposure. The empirical analysis was conducted using multinomial logit models. Results indicate that consumers prefer an extension of shelf life as long as the applied technology is known and understood. Consumers had clear preferences for brighter (aerobic and CO) red color and were willing to pay $0.16/lb ($0.35/kg) for each level of change to the preferred color. More information on MAP for extending the shelf life and on CO-MAP for stabilizing color decreased consumers' willingness to pay. An increase in personal knowledge and media exposure influenced acceptance of CO-MAP negatively. The results provide quantitative measures of how packaging affects consumers' acceptance and willingness to pay for products. Such information can benefit food producers and retailers who make decisions about investing in new packaging methods.

A predictive index of axillary nodal involvement in operable breast cancer.

PubMed Central

De Laurentiis, M.; Gallo, C.; De Placido, S.; Perrone, F.; Pettinato, G.; Petrella, G.; Carlomagno, C.; Panico, L.; Delrio, P.; Bianco, A. R.

1996-01-01

We investigated the association between pathological characteristics of primary breast cancer and degree of axillary nodal involvement and obtained a predictive index of the latter from the former. In 2076 cases, 17 histological features, including primary tumour and local invasion variables, were recorded. The whole sample was randomly split in a training (75% of cases) and a test sample. Simple and multiple correspondence analysis were used to select the variables to enter in a multinomial logit model to build an index predictive of the degree of nodal involvement. The response variable was axillary nodal status coded in four classes (N0, N1-3, N4-9, N > or = 10). The predictive index was then evaluated by testing goodness-of-fit and classification accuracy. Covariates significantly associated with nodal status were tumour size (P < 0.0001), tumour type (P < 0.0001), type of border (P = 0.048), multicentricity (P = 0.003), invasion of lymphatic and blood vessels (P < 0.0001) and nipple invasion (P = 0.006). Goodness-of-fit was validated by high concordance between observed and expected number of cases in each decile of predicted probability in both training and test samples. Classification accuracy analysis showed that true node-positive cases were well recognised (84.5%), but there was no clear distinction among the classes of node-positive cases. However, 10 year survival analysis showed a superimposible prognostic behaviour between predicted and observed nodal classes. Moreover, misclassified node-negative patients (i.e. those who are predicted positive) showed an outcome closer to patients with 1-3 metastatic nodes than to node-negative ones. In conclusion, the index cannot completely substitute for axillary node information, but it is a predictor of prognosis as accurate as nodal involvement and identifies a subgroup of node-negative patients with unfavourable prognosis. PMID:8630286
Australian Public Preferences for the Funding of New Health Technologies: A Comparison of Discrete Choice and Profile Case Best-Worst Scaling Methods.

PubMed

Whitty, Jennifer A; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-07-01

Ethical, economic, political, and legitimacy arguments support the consideration of public preferences in health technology decision making. The objective was to assess public preferences for funding new health technologies and to compare a profile case best-worst scaling (BWS) and traditional discrete choice experiment (DCE) method. An online survey consisting of a DCE and BWS task was completed by 930 adults recruited via an Internet panel. Respondents traded between 7 technology attributes. Participation quotas broadly reflected the population of Queensland, Australia, by gender and age. Choice data were analyzed using a generalized multinomial logit model. The findings from both the BWS and DCE were generally consistent in that respondents exhibited stronger preferences for technologies offering prevention or early diagnosis over other benefit types. Respondents also prioritized technologies that benefit younger people, larger numbers of people, those in rural areas, or indigenous Australians; that provide value for money; that have no available alternative; or that upgrade an existing technology. However, the relative preference weights and consequent preference orderings differed between the DCE and BWS models. Further, poor correlation between the DCE and BWS weights was observed. While only a minority of respondents reported difficulty completing either task (22.2% DCE, 31.9% BWS), the majority (72.6%) preferred the DCE over BWS task. This study provides reassurance that many criteria routinely used for technology decision making are considered to be relevant by the public. The findings clearly indicate the perceived importance of prevention and early diagnosis. The dissimilarity observed between DCE and profile case BWS weights is contrary to the findings of previous comparisons and raises uncertainty regarding the comparative merits of these stated preference methods in a priority-setting context. © The Author(s) 2014.
Patient and nurse preferences for nurse handover—using preferences to inform policy: a discrete choice experiment protocol

PubMed Central

Spinks, Jean; Chaboyer, Wendy; Bucknall, Tracey; Tobiano, Georgia; Whitty, Jennifer A

2015-01-01

Introduction Nursing bedside handover in hospital has been identified as an opportunity to involve patients and promote patient-centred care. It is important to consider the preferences of both patients and nurses when implementing bedside handover to maximise the successful uptake of this policy. We outline a study which aims to (1) identify, compare and contrast the preferences for various aspects of handover common to nurses and patients while accounting for other factors, such as the time constraints of nurses that may influence these preferences.; (2) identify opportunities for nurses to better involve patients in bedside handover and (3) identify patient and nurse preferences that may challenge the full implementation of bedside handover in the acute medical setting. Methods and analysis We outline the protocol for a discrete choice experiment (DCE) which uses a survey design common to both patients and nurses. We describe the qualitative and pilot work undertaken to design the DCE. We use a D-efficient design which is informed by prior coefficients collected during the pilot phase. We also discuss the face-to-face administration of this survey in a population of acutely unwell, hospitalised patients and describe how data collection challenges have been informed by our pilot phase. Mixed multinomial logit regression analysis will be used to estimate the final results. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by a university ethics committee as well as two participating hospital ethics committees. Results will be used within a knowledge translation framework to inform any strategies that can be used by nursing staff to improve the uptake of bedside handover. Results will also be disseminated via peer-reviewed journal articles and will be presented at national and international conferences. PMID:26560060
Validating the European Health Literacy Survey Questionnaire in people with type 2 diabetes: Latent trait analyses applying multidimensional Rasch modelling and confirmatory factor analysis.

PubMed

Finbråten, Hanne Søberg; Pettersen, Kjell Sverre; Wilde-Larsson, Bodil; Nordström, Gun; Trollvik, Anne; Guttersrud, Øystein

2017-11-01

To validate the European Health Literacy Survey Questionnaire (HLS-EU-Q47) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The HLS-EU-Q47 latent variable is outlined in a framework with four cognitive domains integrated in three health domains, implying 12 theoretically defined subscales. Valid and reliable health literacy measurers are crucial to effectively adapt health communication and education to individuals and groups of patients. Cross-sectional study applying confirmatory latent trait analyses. Using a paper-and-pencil self-administered approach, 388 adults responded in March 2015. The data were analysed using the Rasch methodology and confirmatory factor analysis. Response violation (response dependency) and trait violation (multidimensionality) of local independence were identified. Fitting the "multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit" model, 1-, 3- and 12-dimensional Rasch models were applied and compared. Poor model fit and differential item functioning were present in some items, and several subscales suffered from poor targeting and low reliability. Despite multidimensional data, we did not observe any unordered response categories. Interpreting the domains as distinct but related latent dimensions, the data fit a 12-dimensional Rasch model and a 12-factor confirmatory factor model best. Therefore, the analyses did not support the estimation of one overall "health literacy score." To support the plausibility of claims based on the HLS-EU score(s), we suggest: removing the health care aspect to reduce the magnitude of multidimensionality; rejecting redundant items to avoid response dependency; adding "harder" items and applying a six-point rating scale to improve subscale targeting and reliability; and revising items to improve model fit and avoid bias owing to person factors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Inflammatory bowel disease patients prioritize mucosal healing, symptom control, and pain when choosing therapies: results of a prospective cross-sectional willingness-to-pay study.

PubMed

Gregor, James C; Williamson, Martin; Dajnowiec, Dorota; Sattin, Bernie; Sabot, Erik; Salh, Baljinder

2018-01-01

Given the large armamentarium of therapies for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), physicians cannot fully describe all treatments to patients and, therefore, make assumptions regarding treatment attributes communicated to patients. This study aimed to assess out-of-pocket willingness-to-pay that IBD patients allocate to treatment attributes. Adult patients receiving therapy for IBD were invited to access a cross-sectional web-based discrete-choice experiment (May 22-August 31, 2015) that presented paired medication scenarios with varying efficacy, safety, and administration parameters. Preference weights and willingness-to-pay for each attribute level were assessed by a hierarchical Bayes method including a multinomial logit model. A total of 586 IBD patients were included, 404 (68.9%) with Crohn's disease and 182 (31.1%) with ulcerative colitis. Genders were evenly distributed; the majority of patients (70.1%) were 50 years or younger and had postsecondary education (75.4%), while the median health status was 7 (Likert scale: 1 [poor] - 10 [perfect]). Regarding relative preference-weight estimates, for the average respondent, reducing pain during administration, mucosal healing, and symptom relief were the highest-ranking attributes. Conversely, infusion reactions and risk of hospitalization or surgery were the lowest-ranking attributes. In multivariate analysis, patient sociodemographics did not affect the rank order of attributes although small differences were observed between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients in the previous year. This study has important implications related to understanding patient preferences and designing patient-centered strategies. IBD patients prioritize treatments with low administration pain. Additionally, these results concur with treatment guidelines emphasizing patients' preference for mucosal healing and symptom control.
Physical Fitness, Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, or Diet—What Are the Correlates of Obesity in Polish School Children?

PubMed Central

Czyż, Stanisław H.; Toriola, Abel L.; Starościak, Wojciech; Lewandowski, Marek; Paul, Yvonne; Oyeyemi, Adewale L.

2017-01-01

There is substantial evidence of rising prevalence of overweight and obesity and its co-morbidities among children in western-high income developed countries. In the European Union, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing fastest among Polish children. Yet, there is paucity of evidence on the relationship of behavioral factors with body weight status of children in Poland. This study examined the association of obesity with physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and diet among Polish children. A total of 641 children (10–15 years) recruited from the Lower Silesia region of Poland participated in this cross-sectional study. Participants’ anthropometrics, physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and dietary intake were assessed. Outcome variables were weight categories (according to body mass index [BMI], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and percentage body fat [% BF]). The strongest negative correlation was found between VO2max and %BF (r = −0.39, p <0.05). Significant negative correlation was also found between VO2max and weight categories (r = −0.15). Results of the multinomial logit analysis showed that VO2max increased in groups of overweight, normal weight and underweight children by 13%, 26% and 19%, respectively as compared to the group of obese children. VO2max and weight and obesity indices were strongly correlated in both gender and age groups. Education and intervention programs to increase physical fitness (VO2max) through aerobic training are recommended for Physical Education teachers, parents and children in order to reduce the rate of overweight and obesity among children in the Lower Silesia region of Poland. PMID:28632175
Food insufficiency and food insecurity as risk factors for physical disability among Palestinian refugees in Lebanon: Evidence from an observational study.

PubMed

Salti, Nisreen; Ghattas, Hala

2016-10-01

Potential interactions between malnutrition and disability are increasingly recognized, and both are important global health issues. Causal effects working from nutrition to disability and from disability back to nutrition present an empirical challenge to measuring either of these effects. However, disability affects nutrition whatever the cause of disability, whereas nutrition is likelier to affect disease-related disability than war- or work-related disability. This paper investigates the association of food insufficiency with the risk of physical disability. Data on disability by cause allow us to address the difficulty of reverse causality. Multinomial logit regressions of disability by cause on food insufficiency are run using survey data from 2010 on 2575 Palestinian refugee households in Lebanon. Controls include household sociodemographic, health and economic characteristics. Regressions of food insufficiency on disability by cause are also run. Disability has a significant coefficient in regressions of food insufficiency, whatever the cause of disability; but in regressions of disability on food insufficiency, food insufficiency is significant only for disease-related disability (log odds of disease-related disability .78 higher, p = .008). The difference in the results by cause of disability is evidence of a significant association between food insufficiency and disease-related disability, net of any reverse effect from disability to food access. The association between disease-related disability and food insufficiency is statistically significant suggesting that even taking into account feedback from disability to nutrition, nutrition is an effective level of intervention to avert the poverty-disability trap resulting from the impoverishing effect of disability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Overweight and obesity trends among active duty military personnel: a 13-year perspective.

PubMed

Reyes-Guzman, Carolyn M; Bray, Robert M; Forman-Hoffman, Valerie L; Williams, Jason

2015-02-01

The U.S. population has shown increasing rates of overweight and obesity in recent years, but similar analyses do not exist for U.S. military personnel. It is important to understand these patterns in the military because of their impact on fitness and readiness. To assess prevalence and trends in overweight/obesity among U.S. service members and to examine the associations of sociodemographic characteristics, exercise, depression, and substance use with these patterns. Analyses performed in 2013 used five large population-based health-related behavior surveys conducted from 1995 to 2008. Main outcome measures were overweight and obesity among active duty military personnel based on BMI. Combined overweight and obesity (BMI≥25) increased from 50.6% in 1995 to 60.8% in 2008, primarily driven by the rise in obesity (BMI≥30) from 5.0% to 12.7%. For overweight, military women showed the largest increase. For obesity, all sociodemographic groups showed significant increases, with the largest among warrant officers, senior enlisted personnel, and people aged 36-45 years. Adjusted multinomial logit analyses found that service members aged 26 years and older, men, non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, enlisted personnel, married personnel, and heavy drinkers had the highest risk both for overweight and obesity. Combined overweight and obesity in active duty personnel rose to more than 60% between 1995 and 2008, primarily because of increased obesity. The high prevalence of overweight and obesity needs attention and has implications for Department of Defense efforts to improve the health, fitness, readiness, and quality of life of the Active Forces. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Providing Informal Care in Terminal Illness: An Analysis of Preferences for Support Using a Discrete Choice Experiment.

PubMed

Hall, Jane; Kenny, Patricia; Hossain, Ishrat; Street, Deborah J; Knox, Stephanie A

2014-08-01

The trend for terminally ill patients to receive much of their end-of-life care at home necessitates the design of services to facilitate this. Care at home also requires that informal care be provided by family members and friends. This study investigated informal carers' preferences for support services to aid the development of end-of-life health care services. This cross-sectional study used 2 discrete choice experiments to ascertain the preferences of carers supporting patients with different levels of care need, determined by the assistance needed with personal care and labeled High Care (HC) and Low Care (LC). The sample included 168 informal carers of people receiving palliative care at home from 2 palliative care services in Sydney, Australia. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews; carers chose between 2 hypothetical plans of support services and their current services. Data were analyzed with generalized multinomial logit models that were used to calculate the impact of each attribute on the probability of a carer choosing a service plan. Preferred support included nursing services; the probability of choosing a plan increased significantly if it included nurse home visits and phone advice (P < 0.001). HC carers also wanted doctor home visits, home respite, and help with personal care (P < 0.05), and LC carers wanted help with household tasks, transport, and a case coordinator (P < 0.001). On average, both groups of carers preferred their current services, but this varied with characteristics of the carer and the caregiving situation. The most valued services are those that support carers in their caregiving role; however, supportive care preferences vary with the different circumstances of patients and carers. © The Author(s) 2013.
Subsidies and the demand for individual health insurance in California.

PubMed

Marquis, M Susan; Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Escarce, José J; Kapur, Kanika; Yegian, Jill M

2004-10-01

To estimate the effect of changes in premiums for individual insurance on decisions to purchase individual insurance and how this price response varies among subgroups of the population. Survey responses from the Current Population Survey (http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/cpsmain.htm), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (http://www.sipp.census.gov/sipp), the National Health Interview Survey (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhis.htm), and data about premiums and plans offered in the individual insurance market in California, 1996-2001. A logit model was used to estimate the decisions to purchase individual insurance by families without access to group insurance. This was modeled as a function of premiums, controlling for family characteristics and other characteristics of the market. A multinomial model was used to estimate the choice between group coverage, individual coverage, and remaining uninsured for workers offered group coverage as a function of premiums for individual insurance and out-of-pocket costs of group coverage. The elasticity of demand for individual insurance by those without access to group insurance is about -.2 to -.4, as has been found in earlier studies. However, there are substantial differences in price responses among subgroups with low-income, young, and self-employed families showing the greatest response. Among workers offered group insurance, a decrease in individual premiums has very small effects on the choice to purchase individual coverage versus group coverage. Subsidy programs may make insurance more affordable for some families, but even sizeable subsidies are unlikely to solve the problem of the uninsured. We do not find evidence that subsidies to individual insurance will produce an unraveling of the employer-based health insurance system.
Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

PubMed Central

Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

2014-01-01

In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores. PMID:25521352
Plan Selection in the Non-Group Market in the First Year of the Health Insurance Marketplace.

PubMed

Gillen, Emily; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Trantham, Laurel; Silberman, Pam; Weinberger, Morris; Holmes, Mark

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND The Affordable Care Act (ACA)-created Marketplaces reduced barriers to entry in the non-group health insurance market. Although tax credits were available to individuals who enrolled in qualified health plans (QHPs) beginning in 2014, many individuals chose not to switch plans. We examined characteristics associated with switching from a non-ACA compliant plan to a QHP in 2014 and, conditional on switching, the characteristics associated with selection of a specific plan level. METHODS Using claims data from a large commercial insurer, we examined characteristics associated with switching to a QHP in 2014. For those who did switch, we used a multinomial logit model to estimate odds of selecting different metal levels-representing varying degrees of coverage-for a group of the highest and lowest risk individuals. RESULTS We found individuals most likely to benefit from the premium and benefit requirements on QHPs were more likely to switch to QHPs. Individuals at high-risk for high health care expenditures who had advance premium tax credits (APTCs) had lower odds of choosing a less generous plan compared to individuals without APTCs (odds of bronze plan over silver: 0.40, CI: 0.30 - 0.55), while individuals at low-risk of being high cost with APTCs were more likely to select a plan with a lower premium (odds bronze plan over silver: 1.35, CI: 1.09 - 1.66). LIMITATIONS This study was conducted with data from 1 health plan, limiting its national generalizability; however, this study is a good representation of activity within the state. CONCLUSIONS APTCs are important for ensuring that less healthy individuals are able to afford adequate levels of coverage. ©2017 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.
Eliciting preferences for waterpipe tobacco smoking using a discrete choice experiment: implications for product regulation

PubMed Central

Salloum, Ramzi G; Maziak, Wasim; Hammond, David; Nakkash, Rima; Islam, Farahnaz; Cheng, Xi; Thrasher, James F

2015-01-01

Objectives Waterpipe smoking is highly prevalent among university students, and has been increasing in popularity despite mounting evidence showing it is harmful to health. The aim of this study was to measure preferences for waterpipe smoking and determine which product characteristics are most important to smokers. Setting A large university in the Southeastern USA. Participants Adult waterpipe smokers attending the university (N=367). Design Participants completed an Internet-based discrete choice experiment to reveal their preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of hypothetical waterpipe smoking sessions. Participants were presented with waterpipe lounge menus, each with three fruit-flavoured options and one tobacco flavoured option, in addition to an opt out option. Nicotine content and price were provided for each choice. Participants were randomised to either receive menus with a text-only health-warning message or no message. Outcome measures Multinomial and nested logit models were used to estimate the impact on consumer choice of attributes and between-subject assignment of health warnings respectively. Results On average, participants preferred fruit-flavoured varieties to tobacco flavour. They were averse to options labelled with higher nicotine content. Females and non-smokers of cigarettes were more likely than their counterparts to prefer flavoured and nicotine-free varieties. Participants exposed to a health warning were more likely to opt out. Conclusions Fruit-flavoured tobacco and lower nicotine content labels, two strategies widely used by the industry, increase the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults. Waterpipe-specific regulation should limit the availability of flavoured waterpipe tobacco and require accurate labelling of constituents. Waterpipe-specific tobacco control regulation, along with research to inform policy, is required to curb this emerging public health threat. PMID:26353876
Evoked emotions predict food choice.

PubMed

Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

2014-01-01

In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.
The Impact of Income and Taxation in a Price-Tiered Cigarette Market - findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

PubMed

Huq, Iftekharul; Nargis, Nigar; Lkhagvasuren, Damba; Hussain, Akm Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T

2018-04-25

Taxing tobacco is among the most effective measures of tobacco control. However, in a tiered market structure where multiple tiers of taxes coexist, the anticipated impact of tobacco taxes on consumption is complex. This paper investigates changing smoking behaviour in lieu of changing prices and changing income. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of change in prices (through taxes) and change in income in a price-tiered cigarette market. A panel dataset from the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh surveys is used for analysis. For preliminary analysis transition matrices are developed. Next, probit and multinomial logit regression models are used to identify the effects of changes in prices and changes in income along with other control variables. Transition matrices show significant movement of smokers across price tiers from one wave to another. Regression results show that higher income raises the probability to up-trade and decreases the probability to down-trade. Results also show that higher prices raises the probability to up-trade and reduces the probability to down-trade. Although not significant, there exists a negative relationship between the probability to down-trade and the probability to intend to quit. It is evident from the results that a price-tiered market provides smokers more opportunities to accommodate their smoking behaviour when faced with price and income change. Therefore, tiered structure of the tax system should be replaced with uniform taxes. Moreover, overall cigarette taxes need to be raised to an extent so that it off-sets any positive effects of income growth. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

PubMed

Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

2018-04-09

Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.
Bicycle safety helmet legislation and bicycle-related non-fatal injuries in California.

PubMed

Lee, Brian Ho-Yin; Schofer, Joseph L; Koppelman, Frank S

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether the bicycle safety helmet legislation in California, enacted in 1994, was associated with statistically significant reductions in head injuries among bicyclists aged 17 years and under who were subjected to the law. The study used 44,069 patient discharge cases from all public hospitals in California, from 1991 through 2000, and a case-control design to make direct comparisons between those subjected to the law (Youth) and those who were not (Adult) across the pre- and post-legislation periods. An aggregate data analysis approach and a pooled disaggregate data fitting technique using multinomial logit models were applied. The legislation was found to be associated with a reduction of 18.2% (99% confidence interval: 11.5-24.3%) in the proportion of traumatic brain injuries (Head-TBI) among Youth bicyclists. The proportions of other head, face, and neck injuries were not significantly changed across the pre- and post-legislation periods in this age group but there was a corresponding increase of 9% (5-13%) in the proportion of all other injuries. On the other hand, there was no statistically significant change in the proportions of injury outcomes for Adult bicyclists. The youngest riders, aged 0-9 years, had the greatest decrease in the proportion of Head-TBI. The reduction was the same for motor vehicle and non-motor-vehicle-related incidents. The bicycle safety helmet legislation was associated with a decrease in the likelihood of Head-TBI for non-urban residents but not for urbanites, for males but not for females, and for Whites, Asians, and Hispanics, but not Blacks and others.
Comparing Analytic Hierarchy Process and Discrete-Choice Experiment to Elicit Patient Preferences for Treatment Characteristics in Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Danner, Marion; Vennedey, Vera; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Fauser, Sascha; Gross, Christian; Stock, Stephanie

2017-09-01

In this study, we conducted an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit the preferences of patients with age-related macular degeneration using identical attributes and levels. To compare preference-based weights for age-related macular degeneration treatment attributes and levels generated by two elicitation methods. The properties of both methods were assessed, including ease of instrument use. A DCE and an AHP experiment were designed on the basis of five attributes. Preference-based weights were generated using the matrix multiplication method for attributes and levels in AHP and a mixed multinomial logit model for levels in the DCE. Attribute importance was further compared using coefficient (DCE) and weight (AHP) level ranges. The questionnaire difficulty was rated on a qualitative scale. Patients were asked to think aloud while providing their judgments. AHP and DCE generated similar results regarding levels, stressing a preference for visual improvement, frequent monitoring, on-demand and less frequent injection schemes, approved drugs, and mild side effects. Attribute weights derived on the basis of level ranges led to a ranking that was opposite to the AHP directly calculated attribute weights. For example, visual function ranked first in the AHP and last on the basis of level ranges. The results across the methods were similar, with one exception: the directly measured AHP attribute weights were different from the level-based interpretation of attribute importance in both DCE and AHP. The dependence/independence of attribute importance on level ranges in DCE and AHP, respectively, should be taken into account when choosing a method to support decision making. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Patients' sense of security during palliative care-what are the influencing factors?

PubMed

Milberg, Anna; Friedrichsen, Maria; Jakobsson, Maria; Nilsson, Eva-Carin; Niskala, Birgitta; Olsson, Maria; Wåhlberg, Rakel; Krevers, Barbro

2014-07-01

Having a sense of security is vitally important to patients who have a limited life expectancy. We sought to identify the factors associated with patients' sense of security during the palliative care period. We recruited 174 adult patients (65% of those eligible) from six palliative home care units. The relationship between the patients' sense of security during palliative care and individual factors was evaluated in a stepwise procedure using the generalized linear model (ordinal multinomial distribution and logit link). Respondents' ratings of their sense of security ranged from 1 (never) to 6 (always), with a mean value of 4.6 (SD 1.19). Patients with lower feelings of security experienced higher stress; more worry about personal finances; lower feelings of self-efficacy; a lower sense of security with the palliative care provided (lower ratings on subscales of care interaction); mastery; prevailed own identity; higher symptom intensity (especially depression, anxiety, and lack of well-being); lower health-related quality of life; lower attachment anxiety and avoidance; less support from family, relatives, and friends; lower comfort for those closest to them; and more often had gynecological cancer. Six variables (mastery, nervousness and stress, gynecological cancer, self-efficacy, worrying about personal finances, and avoidance) were selected in building the stepwise model. These findings stress the importance of palliative care services in supporting dying patients' sense of security through symptom management with a wide scope and through supporting the patients' sense of mastery, identity, and perception of a secure care interaction and also through attention to the family members' situation. Copyright © 2014 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Modeling Preference and Willingness to Pay for Drought Tolerance (DT) in Maize in Rural Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Kassie, Girma T; Abdulai, Awudu; Greene, William H; Shiferaw, Bekele; Abate, Tsedeke; Tarekegne, Amsal; Sutcliffe, Chloe

2017-06-01

Maize plays a leading role in the food security of millions in southern Africa, yet it is highly vulnerable to the moisture stress brought about by the erratic rainfall patterns that characterize weather systems in the area. Developing and making drought-tolerant maize varieties available to farmers in the region has thus long been a key goal on the regional development agenda. Farm-level adoption of these varieties, however, depends on local perceptions of the value they add, along with willingness to pay (WTP) for it. Focusing on Zimbabwe, this research aimed at estimating the implicit prices farmers are willing to pay for drought tolerance in maize compared to other preferred traits. Using a choice experiment framework, we generated 12,600 observations from a random sample of 1,400 households in communal areas within 14 districts of Zimbabwe. Taste parameters and heterogeneities were estimated using the generalized multinomial logit model (G-MNL). The results reveal drought tolerance, grain yield, covered cob tip, cob size, and semi-flint texture to be the most preferred traits by farm households in Zimbabwe. The WTP estimates show that farmers are willing to pay a premium for drought tolerance equal to 2.56, 7, 3.2, and 5 times higher than for an additional ton of yield per acre, bigger cob size, larger grain size, and covered cob tip, respectively. We suggest designing and implementing innovative ways of promoting DT maize along with awareness-raising activities to enhance contextual understandings of drought and drought risk to speed adoption of new DT maize varieties by risk-prone farming communities. Given the high level of rural literacy and the high rate of adoption of improved maize, trait-based promotion and marketing of varieties constitutes the right strategy.

Dominance of sterilization and alternative choices of contraception in India: an appraisal of the socioeconomic impact.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Isabel Tiago; Dias, José G; Padmadas, Sabu S

2014-01-01

The recent decline in fertility in India has been unprecedented especially in southern India, where fertility is almost exclusively controlled by means of permanent contraceptive methods, mainly female sterilization, which constitutes about two-thirds of overall contraceptive use. Many Indian women undergo sterilization at relatively young ages as a consequence of early marriage and childbearing in short birth intervals. This research aims to investigate the socioeconomic factors determining the choices for alternative contraceptive choices against the dominant preference for sterilization among married women in India. Data for this study are drawn from the 2005-06 National Family Health Surveys focusing on a sample of married women who reported having used a method of contraception in the five years preceding the survey. A multilevel multinomial logit regression is used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic factors on contraceptive choices, differentiating temporary modern or traditional methods versus sterilization. Religious affiliation, women's education and occupation had overarching influence on method choices amongst recent users. Muslim women were at higher odds of choosing a traditional or modern temporary method than sterilization. Higher level of women's education increased the odds of modern temporary method choices but the education effect on traditional method choices was only marginally significant. Recent users belonging to wealthier households had higher odds of choosing modern methods over sterilization. Exposure to family planning messages through radio had a positive effect on modern and traditional method choices. Community variations in method choices were highly significant. The persistent dominance of sterilization in the Indian family planning programme is largely determined by socioeconomic conditions. Reproductive health programmes should address the socioeconomic barriers and consider multiple cost-effective strategies such as mass media to promote awareness of modern temporary methods.
Paying for Cures: How Can We Afford It? Managed Care Pharmacy Stakeholder Perceptions of Policy Options to Address Affordability of Prescription Drugs.

PubMed

Yeung, Kai; Suh, Kangho; Basu, Anirban; Garrison, Louis P; Bansal, Aasthaa; Carlson, Josh J

2017-10-01

High-priced medications with curative potential, such as the newer hepatitis C therapies, have contributed to the recent growth in pharmaceutical expenditure. Despite the obvious benefits, health care decision makers are just beginning to grapple with questions of how to value and pay for curative therapies that may feature large upfront cost, followed by health benefits that are reaped over a patient's lifespan. Alternative policy options have been proposed to promote high value and financially sustainable use of these therapies. It is unclear which policy options would be most acceptable to health care payer and biomedical manufacturer stakeholders. To (a) briefly review pharmaceutical policy options to address health system affordability and (b) assess the acceptability of alternative policy options to health care payers and biomedical manufacturers before and after an Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy (AMCP) continuing pharmacy education (CPE) session. We searched MEDLINE and Cochran databases for pharmaceutical policy options addressing affordability. With input from a focus group of managed care professionals, we developed CPE session content and an 8-question survey focusing on the most promising policy options. We fielded the survey before and after the CPE session, which occurred as part of the 2016 AMCP Annual Meeting. We first conducted a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test to assess response distributions. Next, we tested how responses differed before and after by using an ordered logit and a multinomial logit to model Likert scale and unordered responses, respectively. Although risk-sharing payments over time remained the most favorable choice before (37%) and after (35%) the CPE session, this choice was closely followed by HealthCoin after the session, which increased in favorability from 4% to 33% of responses (P = 0.001). About half of the respondents (54%) indicated that legislative change is the most significant barrier to the implementation of any policy. As high-cost curative drugs reach the market, managed care stakeholders need information from a balanced education source regarding alternative policies to address affordability. We found that after the AMCP CPE session, risk-sharing payments over time and HealthCoin were the most favorable options. No funding was provided for this research. Carlson reports consulting fees from Genentech, Pfizer, and Seattle Genetics. The other authors have nothing to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Yeung, Garrison, and Carlson. Yeung collected the data, which were interpreted by Yeung and Basu. The manuscript was written by Yeung, Suh, and Bansal and revised by Yeung. A portion of this research was presented at the Academy of Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy Annual Meeting as a continuing education session entitled "Paying for Cures: How Can We Afford It?" on April 20, 2016, in San Francisco, California.
Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

2010-12-01

This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the data best, indication that allowing for both heterogeneous preferences across households and correlation between repeated choices may represent actual choice behaviors best of all the estimated models. The annual benefits to improve of the Anyancheon watershed for 1% improvement of each attribute was 406.7 billion Won(0.34 billion USD). This study is expected to contribute to the decision-making process for policy-makers by providing useful methodological framework and quantitative information related to watershed improvement projects.Table 1. Estimated Results of Conditional Logit and Mixed Logit Model 1) t-values are shown in brackets
A Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayes Classifier for Disease Diagnosis with Microbial Compositions.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang; Lin, Huaiying; Dong, Qunfeng

2017-01-01

Dysbiosis of microbial communities is associated with various human diseases, raising the possibility of using microbial compositions as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. We have developed a Bayes classifier by modeling microbial compositions with Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which are widely used to model multicategorical count data with extra variation. The parameters of the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions are estimated from training microbiome data sets based on maximum likelihood. The posterior probability of a microbiome sample belonging to a disease or healthy category is calculated based on Bayes' theorem, using the likelihood values computed from the estimated Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, as well as a prior probability estimated from the training microbiome data set or previously published information on disease prevalence. When tested on real-world microbiome data sets, our method, called DMBC (for Dirichlet-multinomial Bayes classifier), shows better classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian microbiome classifier based on a Dirichlet-multinomial mixture model and the popular random forest method. The advantage of DMBC is its built-in automatic feature selection, capable of identifying a subset of microbial taxa with the best classification accuracy between different classes of samples based on cross-validation. This unique ability enables DMBC to maintain and even improve its accuracy at modeling species-level taxa. The R package for DMBC is freely available at https://github.com/qunfengdong/DMBC. IMPORTANCE By incorporating prior information on disease prevalence, Bayes classifiers have the potential to estimate disease probability better than other common machine-learning methods. Thus, it is important to develop Bayes classifiers specifically tailored for microbiome data. Our method shows higher classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian classifier and the popular random forest method, and thus provides an alternative option for using microbial compositions for disease diagnosis.
SU-F-T-104: Determining the NTCP Parameters of Pharyngeal Constrictors and Proximal Esophagus for Radiation Induced Swallowing Problems Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M

Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of pharyngeal constrictors and proximal esophagus regarding the severity of patient reported swallowing problems 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the section/structure that best correlates with the manifestation of the clinical endpoints. Finally, to compare the goodness-of-fit of those models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multi-institutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric datamore » of superior, medium and inferior sections of pharyngeal constrictors (SPC, MPC and IPC), superior and inferior sections of esophagus (SES and IES) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patient data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the SPC for Grade ≥ 2 (0.719 for the RS and RL models, and 0.716 for LKB and Logit). For Grade ≥ 1, the respective values were 0.699 for RS, LKB and Logit and 0.676 for RL. For MPC the AUC values varied between 0.463–0.477, for IPC between 0.396–0.458, for SES between 0.556–0.613 and for IES between 0.410–0.519. The Odds Ratio for the SPC was 15.6 (1.7–146.4) for RS, LKB and Logit for NTCP of 55%. Conclusion: All the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data with similar accuracy. The SPC appear to correlate best with the clinical endpoints of swallowing problems. A prospective study could establish the use of NTCP values of SPC as a constraint in treatment planning.« less
SU-D-204-05: Fitting Four NTCP Models to Treatment Outcome Data of Salivary Glands Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M

Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four popular NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of salivary glands to the severity of patient reported dry mouth 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the glands, which best correlate with the manifestation of those clinical endpoints. Finally, to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the NTCP models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multiinstitutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric data ofmore » the parotid and submandibular glands (SMG) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patients data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the contralateral parotid for Grade ≥ 2 (0.762 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.753 for the RL). For the salivary glands the AUC values were: 0.725 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.721 for the RL. For the contralateral SMG the AUC values were: 0.721 for LKB, 0.714 for Logit and 0.712 for RS and RL. The Odds Ratio for the contralateral parotid was 5.8 (1.3–25.5) for all the four NTCP models for the radiobiological dose threshold of 21Gy. Conclusion: It was shown that all the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data well with very similar accuracy. The contralateral parotid gland appears to correlated best with the clinical endpoints of severe/very severe dry mouth. An EQD2Gy dose of 21Gy appears to be a safe threshold to be used as a constraint in treatment planning.« less
Modeling Unconscious Gender Bias in Fame Judgments: Finding the Proper Branch of the Correct (Multinomial) Tree

PubMed

Draine; Greenwald; Banaji

1996-03-01

In the preceding article, Buchner and Wippich used a guessing-corrected, multinomial process-dissociation analysis to test whether a gender bias in fame judgments reported by Banaji and Greenwald (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1995, 68, 181-198) was unconscious. In their two experiments, Buchner and Wippich found no evidence for unconscious mediation of this gender bias. Their conclusion can be questioned by noting that (a) the gender difference in familiarity of previously seen names that Buchner and Wippich modeled was different from the gender difference in criterion for fame judgments reported by Banaji and Greenwald, (b) the assumptions of Buchner and Wippich's multinomial model excluded processes that are plausibly involved in the fame judgment task, and (c) the constructs of Buchner and Wippich's model that corresponded most closely to Banaji and Greenwald's gender-bias interpretation were formulated so as to preclude the possibility of modeling that interpretation. Perhaps a more complex multinomial model can model the Banaji and Greenwald interpretation.
Modeling unconscious gender bias in fame judgments: finding the proper branch of the correct (multinomial) tree.

PubMed

Draine, S C; Greenwald, A G; Banaji, M R

1996-01-01

In the preceding article, Buchner and Wippich used a guessing-corrected, multinomial process-dissociation analysis to test whether a gender bias in fame judgements reported by Banaji and Greenwald (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1995, 68, 181-198) was unconscious. In their two experiments, Buchner and Wippich found no evidence for unconscious mediation of this gender bias. Their conclusion can be questioned by noting that (a) the gender difference in familiarity of previously seen names that Buchner and Wippich modeled was different from the gender difference in criterion for fame judgements reported by Banaji and Greenwald, (b) the assumptions of Buchner and Wippich's multinomial model excluded processes that are plausibly involved in the fame judgement task, and (c) the constructs of Buchner and Wippich's model that corresponded most closely to Banaji and Greenwald's gender-bias interpretation were formulated so as to preclude the possibility of modeling that interpretation. Perhaps a more complex multinomial model can model the Banaji and Greenwald interpretation.
Analysis of multinomial models with unknown index using data augmentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, R.M.; Link, W.A.

2007-01-01

Multinomial models with unknown index ('sample size') arise in many practical settings. In practice, Bayesian analysis of such models has proved difficult because the dimension of the parameter space is not fixed, being in some cases a function of the unknown index. We describe a data augmentation approach to the analysis of this class of models that provides for a generic and efficient Bayesian implementation. Under this approach, the data are augmented with all-zero detection histories. The resulting augmented dataset is modeled as a zero-inflated version of the complete-data model where an estimable zero-inflation parameter takes the place of the unknown multinomial index. Interestingly, data augmentation can be justified as being equivalent to imposing a discrete uniform prior on the multinomial index. We provide three examples involving estimating the size of an animal population, estimating the number of diabetes cases in a population using the Rasch model, and the motivating example of estimating the number of species in an animal community with latent probabilities of species occurrence and detection.
Linkage Analysis of Urine Arsenic Species Patterns in the Strong Heart Family Study

PubMed Central

Gribble, Matthew O.; Voruganti, Venkata Saroja; Cole, Shelley A.; Haack, Karin; Balakrishnan, Poojitha; Laston, Sandra L.; Tellez-Plaza, Maria; Francesconi, Kevin A.; Goessler, Walter; Umans, Jason G.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Gilliland, Frank; North, Kari E.; Franceschini, Nora; Navas-Acien, Ana

2015-01-01

Arsenic toxicokinetics are important for disease risks in exposed populations, but genetic determinants are not fully understood. We examined urine arsenic species patterns measured by HPLC-ICPMS among 2189 Strong Heart Study participants 18 years of age and older with data on ∼400 genome-wide microsatellite markers spaced ∼10 cM and arsenic speciation (683 participants from Arizona, 684 from Oklahoma, and 822 from North and South Dakota). We logit-transformed % arsenic species (% inorganic arsenic, %MMA, and %DMA) and also conducted principal component analyses of the logit % arsenic species. We used inverse-normalized residuals from multivariable-adjusted polygenic heritability analysis for multipoint variance components linkage analysis. We also examined the contribution of polymorphisms in the arsenic metabolism gene AS3MT via conditional linkage analysis. We localized a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 10 (LOD 4.12 for %MMA, 4.65 for %DMA, and 4.84 for the first principal component of logit % arsenic species). This peak was partially but not fully explained by measured AS3MT variants. We also localized a QTL for the second principal component of logit % arsenic species on chromosome 5 (LOD 4.21) that was not evident from considering % arsenic species individually. Some other loci were suggestive or significant for 1 geographical area but not overall across all areas, indicating possible locus heterogeneity. This genome-wide linkage scan suggests genetic determinants of arsenic toxicokinetics to be identified by future fine-mapping, and illustrates the utility of principal component analysis as a novel approach that considers % arsenic species jointly. PMID:26209557
An Objective Screening Method for Major Depressive Disorder Using Logistic Regression Analysis of Heart Rate Variability Data Obtained in a Mental Task Paradigm.

PubMed

Sun, Guanghao; Shinba, Toshikazu; Kirimoto, Tetsuo; Matsui, Takemi

2016-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) has been intensively studied as a promising biological marker of major depressive disorder (MDD). Our previous study confirmed that autonomic activity and reactivity in depression revealed by HRV during rest and mental task (MT) conditions can be used as diagnostic measures and in clinical evaluation. In this study, logistic regression analysis (LRA) was utilized for the classification and prediction of MDD based on HRV data obtained in an MT paradigm. Power spectral analysis of HRV on R-R intervals before, during, and after an MT (random number generation) was performed in 44 drug-naïve patients with MDD and 47 healthy control subjects at Department of Psychiatry in Shizuoka Saiseikai General Hospital. Logit scores of LRA determined by HRV indices and heart rates discriminated patients with MDD from healthy subjects. The high frequency (HF) component of HRV and the ratio of the low frequency (LF) component to the HF component (LF/HF) correspond to parasympathetic and sympathovagal balance, respectively. The LRA achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0 and 79.0%, respectively, at an optimum cutoff logit score (0.28). Misclassifications occurred only when the logit score was close to the cutoff score. Logit scores also correlated significantly with subjective self-rating depression scale scores ( p < 0.05). HRV indices recorded during a MT may be an objective tool for screening patients with MDD in psychiatric practice. The proposed method appears promising for not only objective and rapid MDD screening but also evaluation of its severity.
Estimation from incomplete multinomial data. Ph.D. Thesis - Harvard Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Credeur, K. R.

1978-01-01

The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.
Study on Commercialization of Biogasification Systems in Ishikari Bay New Port Area - Proposal of Estimation Method of Collectable Amount of Food Waste by using Binary Logit Model -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Sho; Furuichi, Toru; Ishii, Kazuei

This study proposed an estimation method for collectable amount of food waste considering the food waste generator's cooperation ratio ant the amount of food waste generation, and clarified the factors influencing the collectable amount of food waste. In our method, the cooperation ratio was calculated by using the binary logit model which is often used for the traffic multiple choice question. In order to develop a more precise binary logit model, the factors influencing on the cooperation ratio were extracted by a questionnaire survey asking food waste generator's intention, and the preference investigation was then conducted at the second step. As a result, the collectable amount of food waste was estimated to be 72 [t/day] in the Ishikari bay new port area under a condition of current collection system by using our method. In addition, the most critical factor influencing on the collectable amount of food waste was the treatment fee for households, and was the permitted mixture degree of improper materials for retail trade and restaurant businesses
Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicted Probability Map To Visualize The Influence Of Socio-Economic Factors On Breast Cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhu, B.; Ashok, N. C.; Balasubramanian, S.

2014-11-01

Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to develop statistical model that can predict the probability of breast cancer in Southern Karnataka using the breast cancer occurrence data during 2007-2011. Independent socio-economic variables describing the breast cancer occurrence like age, education, occupation, parity, type of family, health insurance coverage, residential locality and socioeconomic status of each case was obtained. The models were developed as follows: i) Spatial visualization of the Urban- rural distribution of breast cancer cases that were obtained from the Bharat Hospital and Institute of Oncology. ii) Socio-economic risk factors describing the breast cancer occurrences were complied for each case. These data were then analysed using multinomial logistic regression analysis in a SPSS statistical software and relations between the occurrence of breast cancer across the socio-economic status and the influence of other socio-economic variables were evaluated and multinomial logistic regression models were constructed. iii) the model that best predicted the occurrence of breast cancer were identified. This multivariate logistic regression model has been entered into a geographic information system and maps showing the predicted probability of breast cancer occurrence in Southern Karnataka was created. This study demonstrates that Multinomial logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of breast cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka.
Association Between Schizophrenia-Related Polygenic Liability and the Occurrence and Level of Mood-Incongruent Psychotic Symptoms in Bipolar Disorder.

PubMed

Allardyce, Judith; Leonenko, Ganna; Hamshere, Marian; Pardiñas, Antonio F; Forty, Liz; Knott, Sarah; Gordon-Smith, Katherine; Porteous, David J; Haywood, Caroline; Di Florio, Arianna; Jones, Lisa; McIntosh, Andrew M; Owen, Michael J; Holmans, Peter; Walters, James T R; Craddock, Nicholas; Jones, Ian; O'Donovan, Michael C; Escott-Price, Valentina

2018-01-01

Bipolar disorder (BD) overlaps schizophrenia in its clinical presentation and genetic liability. Alternative approaches to patient stratification beyond current diagnostic categories are needed to understand the underlying disease processes and mechanisms. To investigate the association between common-variant liability for schizophrenia, indexed by polygenic risk scores (PRSs), and psychotic presentations of BD. This case-control study in the United Kingdom used multinomial logistic regression to estimate differential PRS associations across categories of cases and controls. Participants included in the final analyses were 4436 cases of BD from the Bipolar Disorder Research Network. These cases were compared with the genotypic data for 4976 cases of schizophrenia and 9012 controls from the Type 1 Diabetes Genetics Consortium study and the Generation Scotland study. Data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013. Data analysis was conducted from March 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017. Standardized PRSs, calculated using alleles with an association threshold of P < .05 in the second Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study of schizophrenia, were adjusted for the first 10 population principal components and genotyping platforms. Multinomial logit models estimated PRS associations with BD stratified by Research Diagnostic Criteria subtypes of BD, by lifetime occurrence of psychosis, and by lifetime mood-incongruent psychotic features. Ordinal logistic regression examined PRS associations across levels of mood incongruence. Ratings were derived from the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry interview and the Bipolar Affective Disorder Dimension Scale. Of the 4436 cases of BD, 2966 (67%) were female patients, and the mean (SD) age at interview was 46 [12] years. Across clinical phenotypes, there was an exposure-response gradient, with the strongest PRS association for schizophrenia (risk ratio [RR] = 1.94; 95% CI, 1.86-2.01), followed by schizoaffective BD (RR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.22-1.54), bipolar I disorder subtype (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.24-1.36), and bipolar II disorder subtype (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.11). Within BD cases, there was an effect gradient, indexed by the nature of psychosis. Prominent mood-incongruent psychotic features had the strongest association (RR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.36-1.57), followed by mood-congruent psychosis (RR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.17-1.33) and BD with no history of psychosis (RR = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.15). For the first time to date, a study shows a polygenic-risk gradient across schizophrenia and BD, indexed by the occurrence and level of mood-incongruent psychotic symptoms.
Bayesian multinomial probit modeling of daily windows of susceptibility for maternal PM2.5 exposure and congenital heart defects

EPA Science Inventory

Past epidemiologic studies suggest maternal ambient air pollution exposure during critical periods of the pregnancy is associated with fetal development. We introduce a multinomial probit model that allows for the joint identification of susceptible daily periods during the pregn...
Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, John C.

2006-01-01

Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…
Examining driver injury severity outcomes in rural non-interstate roadway crashes using a hierarchical ordered logit model.

PubMed

Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Huang, Helai; Wang, Jiangfeng; Tarefder, Rafiqul A

2016-11-01

Rural non-interstate crashes induce a significant amount of severe injuries and fatalities. Examination of such injury patterns and the associated contributing factors is of practical importance. Taking into account the ordinal nature of injury severity levels and the hierarchical feature of crash data, this study employs a hierarchical ordered logit model to examine the significant factors in predicting driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes based on two-year New Mexico crash records. Bayesian inference is utilized in model estimation procedure and 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI) is applied to testing variable significance. An ordinary ordered logit model omitting the between-crash variance effect is evaluated as well for model performance comparison. Results indicate that the model employed in this study outperforms ordinary ordered logit model in model fit and parameter estimation. Variables regarding crash features, environment conditions, and driver and vehicle characteristics are found to have significant influence on the predictions of driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes. Factors such as road segments far from intersection, wet road surface condition, collision with animals, heavy vehicle drivers, male drivers and driver seatbelt used tend to induce less severe driver injury outcomes than the factors such as multiple-vehicle crashes, severe vehicle damage in a crash, motorcyclists, females, senior drivers, driver with alcohol or drug impairment, and other major collision types. Research limitations regarding crash data and model assumptions are also discussed. Overall, this research provides reasonable results and insight in developing effective road safety measures for crash injury severity reduction and prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Psychometric Evaluation of a Cultural Competency Assessment Instrument for Health Professionals

PubMed Central

Haywood, Sonja H.; Goode, Tawara; Gao, Yong; Smith, Kristyn; Bronheim, Suzanne; Flocke, Susan A; Zyzanski, Steve

2012-01-01

Background Few valid and reliable measures exist for health care professionals interested in determining their levels of cultural and linguistic competence. Objective To evaluate the measurement properties of the Cultural Competence Health Practitioner Assessment (CCHPA-129). Methods The CCHPA-129 is a 129-item web-based instrument, developed by the National Center for Cultural Competence (NCCC). Responses on the CCHPA -129 were examined using factor analysis; Rasch modeling; and Differential Item Functioning (DIF) across race, ethnicity, gender, and profession. Subjects 2504 practitioners, including 1864 nurses (RN/LPN,/BSN); 341 clinicians (PA/NP); and 299 physicians (MD/DO), who completed the CCHPA-129 online between 2005 and 2008. Results Three factors representing domains of knowledge, adapting practice, and promoting health for culturally and linguistically diverse populations accounted for 46% of the variance. Among Knowledge factor items, 53% (23/43) fit the Rasch model, item difficulties ranged from −1.01 logits (least difficult) to +1.11 logits (most difficult), separation index (SI) 13.82, and Cronbach’s α 0.92. Forty-seven percent (21/44) Adapting Practice factor items fit the model, item difficulties −0.07 to +1.11 logits, SI 11.59, Cronbach’s α 0.88; and 58% (23/39). Promoting Health factor items fit the model, item difficulties −1.01 to +1.38 logits, SI 22.64, Cronbach’s α 0.92. Early evidence of validity was established by known groups having statistically different scores. Conclusion The 67-item CCHPA-67 is psychometrically sound. This shorted instrument can be used to establish associations between practitioners’ cultural and linguistic competence and health outcomes as well as to evaluate interventions to increase practitioners’ cultural and linguistic competence. PMID:22437625
Item Banking Enables Stand-Alone Measurement of Driving Ability.

PubMed

Khadka, Jyoti; Fenwick, Eva K; Lamoureux, Ecosse L; Pesudovs, Konrad

2016-12-01

To explore whether large item sets, as used in item banking, enable important latent traits, such as driving, to form stand-alone measures. The 88-item activity limitation (AL) domain of the glaucoma module of the Eye-tem Bank was interviewer-administered to patients with glaucoma. Rasch analysis was used to calibrate all items in AL domain on the same interval-level scale and test its psychometric properties. Based on Rasch dimensionality metrics, the AL scale was separated into subscales. These subscales underwent separate Rasch analyses to test whether they could form stand-alone measures. Independence of these measures was tested with Bland and Altman (B&A) Limit of Agreement (LOA). The AL scale was completed by 293 patients (median age, 71 years). It demonstrated excellent precision (3.12). However, Rasch analysis dimensionality metrics indicated that the domain arguably had other dimensions which were driving, luminance, and reading. Once separated, the remaining AL items, driving and luminance subscales, were unidimensional and had excellent precision of 4.25, 2.94, and 2.22, respectively. The reading subscale showed poor precision (1.66), so it was not examined further. The luminance subscale demonstrated excellent agreement (mean bias, 0.2 logit; 95% LOA, -2.2 to 3.3 logit); however, the driving subscale demonstrated poor agreement (mean bias, 1.1 logit; 95% LOA, -4.8 to 7.0 logit) with the AL scale. These findings indicate that driving items in the AL domain of the glaucoma module were perceived and responded to differently from the other AL items, but the reading and luminance items were not. Therefore, item banking enables stand-alone measurement of driving ability in glaucoma.

A General Family of Limited Information Goodness-of-Fit Statistics for Multinomial Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joe, Harry; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

2010-01-01

Maydeu-Olivares and Joe (J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 100:1009-1020, "2005"; Psychometrika 71:713-732, "2006") introduced classes of chi-square tests for (sparse) multidimensional multinomial data based on low-order marginal proportions. Our extension provides general conditions under which quadratic forms in linear functions of cell residuals are…
Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klauer, Karl Christoph

2010-01-01

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…
Institutional Climate and Student Departure: A Multinomial Multilevel Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yi, Pyong-sik

2008-01-01

This study applied a multinomial HOLM technique to examine the extent to which the institutional climate for diversity influences the different types of college student withdrawal, such as stop out, drop out, and transfer. Based on a reformulation of Tinto's model along with the conceptualization of institutional climate for diversity by Hurtado…
An INAR(1) Negative Multinomial Regression Model for Longitudinal Count Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bockenholt, Ulf

1999-01-01

Discusses a regression model for the analysis of longitudinal count data in a panel study by adapting an integer-valued first-order autoregressive (INAR(1)) Poisson process to represent time-dependent correlation between counts. Derives a new negative multinomial distribution by combining INAR(1) representation with a random effects approach.…
Modeling Polytomous Item Responses Using Simultaneously Estimated Multinomial Logistic Regression Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Carolyn J.; Verkuilen, Jay; Peyton, Buddy L.

2010-01-01

Survey items with multiple response categories and multiple-choice test questions are ubiquitous in psychological and educational research. We illustrate the use of log-multiplicative association (LMA) models that are extensions of the well-known multinomial logistic regression model for multiple dependent outcome variables to reanalyze a set of…
A Multinomial Model of Event-Based Prospective Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2004-01-01

Prospective memory is remembering to perform an action in the future. The authors introduce the 1st formal model of event-based prospective memory, namely, a multinomial model that includes 2 separate parameters related to prospective memory processes. The 1st measures preparatory attentional processes, and the 2nd measures retrospective memory…
Comparison of multinomial logistic regression and logistic regression: which is more efficient in allocating land use?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yingzhi; Deng, Xiangzheng; Li, Xing; Ma, Enjun

2014-12-01

Spatially explicit simulation of land use change is the basis for estimating the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology and the environment. At the pixel level, logistic regression is one of the most common approaches used in spatially explicit land use allocation models to determine the relationship between land use and its causal factors in driving land use change, and thereby to evaluate land use suitability. However, these models have a drawback in that they do not determine/allocate land use based on the direct relationship between land use change and its driving factors. Consequently, a multinomial logistic regression method was introduced to address this flaw, and thereby, judge the suitability of a type of land use in any given pixel in a case study area of the Jiangxi Province, China. A comparison of the two regression methods indicated that the proportion of correctly allocated pixels using multinomial logistic regression was 92.98%, which was 8.47% higher than that obtained using logistic regression. Paired t-test results also showed that pixels were more clearly distinguished by multinomial logistic regression than by logistic regression. In conclusion, multinomial logistic regression is a more efficient and accurate method for the spatial allocation of land use changes. The application of this method in future land use change studies may improve the accuracy of predicting the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology, and environment.
Brief Report: Association of Myositis Autoantibodies, Clinical Features, and Environmental Exposures at Illness Onset With Disease Course in Juvenile Myositis.

PubMed

Habers, G Esther A; Huber, Adam M; Mamyrova, Gulnara; Targoff, Ira N; O'Hanlon, Terrance P; Adams, Sharon; Pandey, Janardan P; Boonacker, Chantal; van Brussel, Marco; Miller, Frederick W; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Rider, Lisa G

2016-03-01

To identify early factors associated with disease course in patients with juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs). Univariable and multivariable multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed in a large juvenile IIM registry (n = 365) and included demographic characteristics, early clinical features, serum muscle enzyme levels, myositis autoantibodies, environmental exposures, and immunogenetic polymorphisms. Multivariable associations with chronic or polycyclic courses compared to a monocyclic course included myositis-specific autoantibodies (multinomial odds ratio [OR] 4.2 and 2.8, respectively), myositis-associated autoantibodies (multinomial OR 4.8 and 3.5), and a documented infection within 6 months of illness onset (multinomial OR 2.5 and 4.7). A higher overall clinical symptom score at diagnosis was associated with chronic or monocyclic courses compared to a polycyclic course. Furthermore, severe illness onset was associated with a chronic course compared to monocyclic or polycyclic courses (multinomial OR 2.1 and 2.6, respectively), while anti-p155/140 autoantibodies were associated with chronic or polycyclic courses compared to a monocyclic course (multinomial OR 3.9 and 2.3, respectively). Additional univariable associations of a chronic course compared to a monocyclic course included photosensitivity, V-sign or shawl sign rashes, and cuticular overgrowth (OR 2.2-3.2). The mean ultraviolet index and highest ultraviolet index in the month before diagnosis were associated with a chronic course compared to a polycyclic course in boys (OR 1.5 and 1.3), while residing in the Northwest was less frequently associated with a chronic course (OR 0.2). Our findings indicate that myositis autoantibodies, in particular anti-p155/140, and a number of early clinical features and environmental exposures are associated with a chronic course in patients with juvenile IIM. These findings suggest that early factors, which are associated with poorer outcomes in juvenile IIM, can be identified. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.
How do patient characteristics influence informal payments for inpatient and outpatient health care in Albania: Results of logit and OLS models using Albanian LSMS 2005

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Informal payments for health care are common in most former communist countries. This paper explores the demand side of these payments in Albania. By using data from the Living Standard Measurement Survey 2005 we control for individual determinants of informal payments in inpatient and outpatient health care. We use these results to explain the main factors contributing to the occurrence and extent of informal payments in Albania. Methods Using multivariate methods (logit and OLS) we test three models to explain informal payments: the cultural, economic and governance model. The results of logit models are presented here as odds ratios (OR) and results from OLS models as regression coefficients (RC). Results Our findings suggest differences in determinants of informal payments in inpatient and outpatient care. Generally our results show that informal payments are dependent on certain characteristics of patients, including age, area of residence, education, health status and health insurance. However, they are less dependent on income, suggesting homogeneity of payments across income categories. Conclusions We have found more evidence for the validity of governance and economic models than for the cultural model. PMID:21605459
Composite Linear Models | Division of Cancer Prevention

Cancer.gov

By Stuart G. Baker The composite linear models software is a matrix approach to compute maximum likelihood estimates and asymptotic standard errors for models for incomplete multinomial data. It implements the method described in Baker SG. Composite linear models for incomplete multinomial data. Statistics in Medicine 1994;13:609-622. The software includes a library of thirty
The Source of Adult Age Differences in Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2006-01-01

Event-based prospective memory involves remembering to perform an action in response to a particular future event. Normal younger and older adults performed event-based prospective memory tasks in 2 experiments. The authors applied a formal multinomial processing tree model of prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004) to disentangle age differences…
Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

PubMed

Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.
Optimizing the parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman, Källman, and Logit+EUD models for the rectum - a comparison between normal tissue complication probability and clinical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trojková, Darina; Judas, Libor; Trojek, Tomáš

2014-11-01

Minimizing the late rectal toxicity of prostate cancer patients is a very important and widely-discussed topic. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models can be used to evaluate competing treatment plans. In our work, the parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Källman, and Logit+EUD models are optimized by minimizing the Brier score for a group of 302 prostate cancer patients. The NTCP values are calculated and are compared with the values obtained using previously published values for the parameters. χ2 Statistics were calculated as a check of goodness of optimization.
Development and validation of an energy-balance knowledge test for fourth- and fifth-grade students.

PubMed

Chen, Senlin; Zhu, Xihe; Kang, Minsoo

2017-05-01

A valid test measuring children's energy-balance (EB) knowledge is lacking in research. This study developed and validated the energy-balance knowledge test (EBKT) for fourth and fifth grade students. The original EBKT contained 25 items but was reduced to 23 items based on pilot result and intensive expert panel discussion. De-identified data were collected from 468 fourth and fifth grade students enrolled in four schools to examine the psychometric properties of the EBKT items. The Rasch model analysis was conducted using the Winstep 3.65.0 software. Differential item functioning (DIF) analysis flagged 1 item (item #4) functioning differently between boys and girls, which was deleted. The final 22-item EBKT showed desirable model-data fit indices. The items had large variability ranging from -3.58 logit (item #10, the easiest) to 1.70 logit (item #3, the hardest). The average person ability on the test was 0.28 logit (SD = .78). Additional analyses supported known-group difference validity of the EBKT scores in capturing gender- and grade-based ability differences. The test was overall valid but could be further improved by expanding test items to discern various ability levels. For lack of a better test, researchers and practitioners may use the EBKT to assess fourth- and fifth-grade students' EB knowledge.
Bullying behaviour in schools, socioeconomic position and psychiatric morbidity: a cross-sectional study in late adolescents in Greece

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Bullying is quite prevalent in the school setting and has been associated with the socioeconomic position and psychiatric morbidity of the pupils. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between bullying and socioeconomic status in a sample of Greek adolescents and to examine whether this is confounded by the presence of psychiatric morbidity, including sub-threshold forms of illness. Methods 5,614 adolescents aged 16-18 years old and attending 25 senior high schools were screened and a stratified random sample of 2,427 were selected for a detailed interview. Psychiatric morbidity was assessed with a fully structured psychiatric interview, the revised Clinical Interview Schedule (CIS-R), while bullying was assessed with the revised Olweus bully/victim questionnaire. The following socio-economic variables were assessed: parental educational level and employment status, financial difficulties of the family and adolescents' school performance. The associations were investigated using multinomial logit models. Results 26.4% of the pupils were involved in bullying-related behaviours at least once monthly either as victims, perpetrators or both, while more frequent involvement (at least once weekly) was reported by 4.1%. Psychiatric morbidity was associated with all types of bullying-related behaviours. No socioeconomic associations were reported for victimization. A lower school performance and unemployment of the father were significantly more likely among perpetrators, while economic inactivity of the mother was more likely in pupils who were both victims and perpetrators. These results were largely confirmed when we focused on high frequency behaviours only. In addition, being overweight increased the risk of frequent victimization. Conclusions The prevalence of bullying among Greek pupils is substantial. Perpetration was associated with some dimensions of adolescents' socioeconomic status, while victimization showed no socioeconomic associations. Our findings may add to the understanding of possible risk factors for bullying behaviours in adolescence. PMID:22325708
Patterns and Determinants of Double-Burden of Malnutrition among Rural Children: Evidence from China.

PubMed

Zhang, Nan; Bécares, Laia; Chandola, Tarani

2016-01-01

Chinese children are facing dual burden of malnutrition-coexistence of under-and over-nutrition. Little systematic evidence exists for explaining the simultaneous presence of under-and over-nutrition. This study aims to explore underlying mechanisms of under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. This study used a nationwide longitudinal dataset of children (N = 5,017) from 9 provinces across China, with four exclusively categories of nutritional outcomes including under-nutrition (stunting and underweight), over-nutrition (overweight only including obesity), paradox (stunted overweight), with normal nutrition as reference. Multinomial logit models (Level-1: occasions; Level-2: children; Level-3: villages) were fitted which corrected for non-independence of observations due to geographic clustering and repeated observations of individuals. A mixture of risk factors at the individual, household and neighbourhood levels predicted under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. Improved socioeconomic status and living in more urbanised villages reduced the risk of stunted overweight among rural children in China. Young girls appeared to have higher risk of under-nutrition, and the risk decreased with age more markedly than for boys up to age 5. From age 5 onwards, boys tended to have higher risk of under-nutrition than girls. Girls aged around 12 and older were less likely to suffer from under-nutrition, while boys' higher risk of under-nutrition persisted throughout adolescence. Children were less likely to suffer from over-nutrition compared to normal nutrition. Boys tended to have an even lower risk of over-nutrition than girls and the gender difference widened with age until adolescence. Our results have important policy implications that improving household economic status, in particular, maternal education and health insurance for children, and living environment are important to enhance rural children's nutritional status in China. Investments in early years of childhood can be effective to reduce gender inequality in nutritional health in rural China.
What's good and bad about contraceptive products?: a best-worst attribute experiment comparing the values of women consumers and GPs.

PubMed

Knox, Stephanie A; Viney, Rosalie C; Street, Deborah J; Haas, Marion R; Fiebig, Denzil G; Weisberg, Edith; Bateson, Deborah

2012-12-01

In the past decade, the range of contraceptives available has increased dramatically. There are limited data on the factors that determine women's choices on contraceptive alternatives or what factors providers consider most important when recommending contraceptive products to women. Our objectives were to compare women's (consumers') preferences and GPs' (providers') views in relation to existing and new contraceptive methods, and particularly to examine what factors increase the acceptability of different contraceptive products. A best-worst attribute stated-choice experiment was completed online. Participants (Australian women of reproductive age and Australian GPs) completed questions on 16 contraceptive profiles. 200 women of reproductive age were recruited through a commercial panel. GPs from all states of Australia were randomly sampled and approached by phone; 162 GPs agreed to participate. Participants chose the best and worst attribute levels of hypothetical but realistic prescribed contraceptive products. Best and worst choices were modelled using multinomial logit and product features were ranked from best to worst according to the size of model coefficients. The most attractive feature of the contraceptive products for both GPs and women consumers were an administration frequency of longer than 1 year and light or no bleeding. Women indicated that the hormonal vaginal ring was the least attractive mode of administration. Women and GPs agree that longer-acting methods with less bleeding are important features in preferred methods of contraception; however, women are also attracted to products involving less invasive modes of administration. While the vaginal ring may fill the niche in Australia for a relatively non-invasive, moderately long-acting and effective contraceptive, the results of this study indicate that GPs will need to promote the benefits of the vaginal ring to overcome negative perceptions about this method among women who may benefit from using it.
Patient and nurse preferences for nurse handover-using preferences to inform policy: a discrete choice experiment protocol.

PubMed

Spinks, Jean; Chaboyer, Wendy; Bucknall, Tracey; Tobiano, Georgia; Whitty, Jennifer A

2015-11-11

Nursing bedside handover in hospital has been identified as an opportunity to involve patients and promote patient-centred care. It is important to consider the preferences of both patients and nurses when implementing bedside handover to maximise the successful uptake of this policy. We outline a study which aims to (1) identify, compare and contrast the preferences for various aspects of handover common to nurses and patients while accounting for other factors, such as the time constraints of nurses that may influence these preferences.; (2) identify opportunities for nurses to better involve patients in bedside handover and (3) identify patient and nurse preferences that may challenge the full implementation of bedside handover in the acute medical setting. We outline the protocol for a discrete choice experiment (DCE) which uses a survey design common to both patients and nurses. We describe the qualitative and pilot work undertaken to design the DCE. We use a D-efficient design which is informed by prior coefficients collected during the pilot phase. We also discuss the face-to-face administration of this survey in a population of acutely unwell, hospitalised patients and describe how data collection challenges have been informed by our pilot phase. Mixed multinomial logit regression analysis will be used to estimate the final results. This study has been approved by a university ethics committee as well as two participating hospital ethics committees. Results will be used within a knowledge translation framework to inform any strategies that can be used by nursing staff to improve the uptake of bedside handover. Results will also be disseminated via peer-reviewed journal articles and will be presented at national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Prioritising patients for bariatric surgery: building public preferences from a discrete choice experiment into public policy

PubMed Central

Whitty, Jennifer A; Ratcliffe, Julie; Kendall, Elizabeth; Burton, Paul; Wilson, Andrew; Littlejohns, Peter; Harris, Paul; Krinks, Rachael; Scuffham, Paul A

2015-01-01

Objectives To derive priority weights for access to bariatric surgery for obese adults, from the perspective of the public. Setting Australian public hospital system. Participants Adults (N=1994), reflecting the age and gender distribution of Queensland and South Australia. Primary and secondary outcome measures A discrete choice experiment in which respondents indicated which of two individuals with different characteristics should be prioritised for surgery in repeated hypothetical choices. Potential surgery recipients were described by seven key characteristics or attributes: body mass index (BMI), presence of comorbid conditions, age, family history, commitment to lifestyle change, time on the surgical wait list and chance of maintaining weight loss following surgery. A multinomial logit model was used to evaluate preferences and derive priority weights (primary analysis), with a latent class model used to explore respondent characteristics that were associated with variation in preference across the sample (see online supplementary analysis). Results A preference was observed to prioritise individuals who demonstrated a strong commitment to maintaining a healthy lifestyle as well as individuals categorised with very severe (BMI≥50 kg/m2) or (to a lesser extent) severe (BMI≥40 kg/m2) obesity, those who already have obesity-related comorbidity, with a family history of obesity, with a greater chance of maintaining weight loss or who had spent a longer time on the wait list. Lifestyle commitment was considered to be more than twice as important as any other criterion. There was little tendency to prioritise according to the age of the recipient. Respondent preferences were dependent on their BMI, previous experience with weight management surgery, current health state and education level. Conclusions This study extends our understanding of the publics’ preferences for priority setting to the context of bariatric surgery, and derives priority weights that could be used to assist bodies responsible for commissioning bariatric services. PMID:26474940
Factors affecting food choices of older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups: a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; van Lenthe, Frank J

2015-04-01

Healthiness, price, and convenience are typically indicated as important motives for food choices; however, it is largely unknown to what extent older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups differ in these underlying motives. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is an innovative way to elicit implicit motives for food choices. The aim was to investigate differences in food motives between socioeconomic groups by means of a DCE. A DCE was carried out during a face-to-face interview among older adults as part of the Health and Living Conditions in Eindhoven and surrounding cities (GLOBE) cohort study, The Netherlands. Participants (n = 399; mean age: 63.3 y) were offered a series of choice sets about a usual dinner at home and were asked to choose in each choice set between 2 meals and an opt-out choice, with different combinations of attribute levels. We included 5 meal attributes (taste, healthiness, preparation time, travel time to shops, and price) and 3 or 4 levels for each attribute. Data were analyzed by multinomial logit models. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to the grocery store proved to significantly influence older adults' meal decisions; preparation time was not significant. Healthiness was the most important attribute for all of the participants. More highly educated participants rated a healthy and less expensive meal to be more important than did less educated participants. Those with a high income rated a meal that was healthy and very tasteful to be more important than did those with a lower income. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to grocery shops influenced older adults' meal decisions. Higher socioeconomic groups valued health more than did lower socioeconomic groups. DCEs represent a promising method to gain insight into the relative importance of motives for food choices. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN60293770. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Dutch Tariff for the Five-Level Version of EQ-5D.

PubMed

M Versteegh, Matthijs; M Vermeulen, Karin; M A A Evers, Silvia; de Wit, G Ardine; Prenger, Rilana; A Stolk, Elly

2016-06-01

In 2009, a new version of the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D) was introduced with five rather than three answer levels per dimension. This instrument is known as the EQ-5D-5L. To make the EQ-5D-5L suitable for use in economic evaluations, societal values need to be attached to all 3125 health states. To derive a Dutch tariff for the EQ-5D-5L. Health state values were elicited during face-to-face interviews in a general population sample stratified for age, sex, and education, using composite time trade-off (cTTO) and a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Data were modeled using ordinary least squares and tobit regression (for cTTO) and a multinomial conditional logit model (for DCE). Model performance was evaluated on the basis of internal consistency, parsimony, goodness of fit, handling of left-censored values, and theoretical considerations. A representative sample (N = 1003) of the Dutch population participated in the valuation study. Data of 979 and 992 respondents were included in the analysis of the cTTO and the DCE, respectively. The cTTO data were left-censored at -1. The tobit model was considered the preferred model for the tariff on the basis of its handling of the censored nature of the data, which was confirmed through comparison with the DCE data. The predicted values for the EQ-5D-5L ranged from -0.446 to 1. This study established a Dutch tariff for the EQ-5D-5L on the basis of cTTO. The values represent the preferences of the Dutch population. The tariff can be used to estimate the impact of health care interventions on quality of life, for example, in context of economic evaluations. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Eliciting preferences for waterpipe tobacco smoking using a discrete choice experiment: implications for product regulation.

PubMed

Salloum, Ramzi G; Maziak, Wasim; Hammond, David; Nakkash, Rima; Islam, Farahnaz; Cheng, Xi; Thrasher, James F

2015-09-09

Waterpipe smoking is highly prevalent among university students, and has been increasing in popularity despite mounting evidence showing it is harmful to health. The aim of this study was to measure preferences for waterpipe smoking and determine which product characteristics are most important to smokers. A large university in the Southeastern USA. Adult waterpipe smokers attending the university (N=367). Participants completed an Internet-based discrete choice experiment to reveal their preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of hypothetical waterpipe smoking sessions. Participants were presented with waterpipe lounge menus, each with three fruit-flavoured options and one tobacco flavoured option, in addition to an opt out option. Nicotine content and price were provided for each choice. Participants were randomised to either receive menus with a text-only health-warning message or no message. Multinomial and nested logit models were used to estimate the impact on consumer choice of attributes and between-subject assignment of health warnings respectively. On average, participants preferred fruit-flavoured varieties to tobacco flavour. They were averse to options labelled with higher nicotine content. Females and non-smokers of cigarettes were more likely than their counterparts to prefer flavoured and nicotine-free varieties. Participants exposed to a health warning were more likely to opt out. Fruit-flavoured tobacco and lower nicotine content labels, two strategies widely used by the industry, increase the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults. Waterpipe-specific regulation should limit the availability of flavoured waterpipe tobacco and require accurate labelling of constituents. Waterpipe-specific tobacco control regulation, along with research to inform policy, is required to curb this emerging public health threat. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
An exploration of parents' preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Hendry, Gordon J; Turner, Debbie E; Gardner-Medwin, Janet; Lorgelly, Paula K; Woodburn, James

2014-02-06

An increased awareness of patients' and parents' care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents' preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents' monetary valuation of health and service improvements. Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents' preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents' estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05. In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents' preferences.
Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Shannon, Darren; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Eggert, Julian

2018-04-01

An extensive number of research studies have attempted to capture the factors that influence the severity of vehicle impacts. The high number of risks facing all traffic participants has led to a gradual increase in sophisticated data collection schemes linking crash characteristics to subsequent severity measures. This study serves as a departure from previous research by relating injuries suffered in road traffic accidents to expected trauma compensation payouts and deriving a quantitative cost function. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Crash Injury Research (CIREN) database for the years 2005-2014 is combined with the Book of Quantum, an Irish governmental document that offers guidelines on the appropriate compensation to be awarded for injuries sustained in accidents. A multiple linear regression is carried out to identify the crash factors that significantly influence expected compensation costs and compared to ordered and multinomial logit models. The model offers encouraging results given the inherent variation expected in vehicular incidents and the subjectivity influencing compensation payout judgments, attaining an adjusted-R 2 fit of 20.6% when uninfluential factors are removed. It is found that relative speed at time of impact and dark conditions increase the expected costs, while rear-end incidents, incident sustained in van-based trucks and incidents sustained while turning result in lower expected compensations. The number of airbags available in the vehicle is also a significant factor. The scalar-outcome approach used in this research offers an alternative methodology to the discrete-outcome models that dominate traffic safety analyses. The results also raise queries on the future development of claims reserving (capital allocations earmarked for future expected claims payments) as advanced driver assistant systems (ADASs) seek to eradicate the most frequent types of crash factors upon which insurance mathematics base their assumptions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Age affects severity of venous gas emboli on decompression from 14.7 to 4.3 psia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, Johnny; Powell, Michael R.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2003-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Variables that define who we are, such as age, weight and fitness level influence the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) from diving and aviation decompressions. We focus on age since astronauts that perform space walks are approximately 10 yr older than our test subjects. Our null hypothesis is that age is not statistically associated with the VGE outcomes from decompression to 4.3 psia. METHODS: Our data are from 7 different NASA tests where 188 men and 50 women performed light exercise at 4.3 psia for planned exposures no less than 4 h. Prebreathe (PB) time on 100% oxygen ranged from 150-270 min, including ascent time, with exercise of different intensity and length being performed during the PB in four of the seven tests with 150 min of PB. Subjects were monitored for VGE in the pulmonary artery using a Doppler ultrasound bubble detector for a 4-min period every 12 min. There were six design variables; the presence or absence of lower body adynamia and five PB variables; plus five concomitant variables on physical characteristics: age, weight height, body mass index, and gender that were available for logistic regression (LR). We used LR models for the probability of DCS and VGE, and multinomial logit (ML) models for the probability of Spencer VGE Grades 0-IV at exposure times of 61, 95, 131, 183 min, and for the entire exposure. RESULTS: Age was significantly associated with VGE in both the LR and ML models, so we reject the null hypothesis. Lower body adynamia was significant for all responses. CONCLUSIONS: Our selection of tests produced a wide range of the explanatory variables, but only age, lower body adynamia, height, and total PB time was helpful in various combinations to model the probability of DCS and VGE.
Patterns and Determinants of Double-Burden of Malnutrition among Rural Children: Evidence from China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Nan; Bécares, Laia; Chandola, Tarani

2016-01-01

Chinese children are facing dual burden of malnutrition—coexistence of under-and over-nutrition. Little systematic evidence exists for explaining the simultaneous presence of under-and over-nutrition. This study aims to explore underlying mechanisms of under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. This study used a nationwide longitudinal dataset of children (N = 5,017) from 9 provinces across China, with four exclusively categories of nutritional outcomes including under-nutrition (stunting and underweight), over-nutrition (overweight only including obesity), paradox (stunted overweight), with normal nutrition as reference. Multinomial logit models (Level-1: occasions; Level-2: children; Level-3: villages) were fitted which corrected for non-independence of observations due to geographic clustering and repeated observations of individuals. A mixture of risk factors at the individual, household and neighbourhood levels predicted under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. Improved socioeconomic status and living in more urbanised villages reduced the risk of stunted overweight among rural children in China. Young girls appeared to have higher risk of under-nutrition, and the risk decreased with age more markedly than for boys up to age 5. From age 5 onwards, boys tended to have higher risk of under-nutrition than girls. Girls aged around 12 and older were less likely to suffer from under-nutrition, while boys’ higher risk of under-nutrition persisted throughout adolescence. Children were less likely to suffer from over-nutrition compared to normal nutrition. Boys tended to have an even lower risk of over-nutrition than girls and the gender difference widened with age until adolescence. Our results have important policy implications that improving household economic status, in particular, maternal education and health insurance for children, and living environment are important to enhance rural children’s nutritional status in China. Investments in early years of childhood can be effective to reduce gender inequality in nutritional health in rural China. PMID:27391448
Assessing rear-end crash potential in urban locations based on vehicle-by-vehicle interactions, geometric characteristics and operational conditions.

PubMed

Dimitriou, Loukas; Stylianou, Katerina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A

2018-03-01

Rear-end crashes are one of the most frequently occurring crash types, especially in urban networks. An understanding of the contributing factors and their significant association with rear-end crashes is of practical importance and will help in the development of effective countermeasures. The objective of this study is to assess rear-end crash potential at a microscopic level in an urban environment, by investigating vehicle-by-vehicle interactions. To do so, several traffic parameters at the individual vehicle level have been taken into consideration, for capturing car-following characteristics and vehicle interactions, and to investigate their effect on potential rear-end crashes. In this study rear-end crash potential was estimated based on stopping distance between two consecutive vehicles, and four rear-end crash potential cases were developed. The results indicated that 66.4% of the observations were estimated as rear-end crash potentials. It was also shown that rear-end crash potential was presented when traffic flow and speed standard deviation were higher. Also, locational characteristics such as lane of travel and location in the network were found to affect drivers' car following decisions and additionally, it was shown that speeds were lower and headways higher when Heavy Goods Vehicles lead. Finally, a model-based behavioral analysis based on Multinomial Logit regression was conducted to systematically identify the statistically significant variables in explaining rear-end risk potential. The modeling results highlighted the significance of the explanatory variables associated with rear-end crash potential, however it was shown that their effect varied among different model configurations. The outcome of the results can be of significant value for several purposes, such as real-time monitoring of risk potential, allocating enforcement units in urban networks and designing targeted proactive safety policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Development, content validity, and piloting of an instrument designed to measure managers' attitude toward workplace breastfeeding support.

PubMed

Chow, Tan; Wolfe, Edward W; Olson, Beth H

2012-07-01

Manager attitude is influential in female employees' perceptions of workplace breastfeeding support. Currently, no instrument is available to assess manager attitude toward supporting women who wish to combine breastfeeding with work. We developed and piloted an instrument to measure manager attitudes toward workplace breastfeeding support entitled the "Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire," an instrument that measures four constructs using 60 items that are rated agree/disagree on a 4-point Likert rating scale. We established the content validity of the Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire measures through expert content review (n=22), expert assessment of item fit (n=11), and cognitive interviews (n=8). Data were collected from a purposive sample of 185 front-line managers who had experience supervising female employees, and responses were scaled using the Multidimensional Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Model. Dimensionality analyses supported the proposed four-construct model. Reliability ranged from 0.75 to 0.86, and correlations between the constructs were moderately strong (0.47 to 0.71). Four items in two constructs exhibited model-to-data misfit and/or a low score-measure correlation. One item was revised and the other three items were retained in the Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire. Findings of this study suggest that the Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire measures are reliable and valid indicators of manager attitude toward workplace breastfeeding support, and future research should be conducted to establish external validity. The Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire could be used to collect data in a standardized manner within and across companies to measure and compare manager attitudes toward supporting breastfeeding. Organizations can subsequently develop targeted strategies to improve support for breastfeeding employees through efforts influencing managerial attitude. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Who becomes more violent among Korean adolescents? Consequences of victimisation in school.

PubMed

Jeong, Seokjin; Davis, Jaya; Han, Youngsun

2015-04-01

Mainly Western studies suggest that bullying increases risk of subsequent offending. Less is known about risk of violence specifically. Very little such research is from Asia - none from Korea. This study aimed to answer three research questions: Is being a victim of bullying in Korean schools associated with later perpetration of violent behaviour? Does type of bullying influence type of offending? Does school climate or parental control mediate this relationship? Juvenile justice intake officers identified 606 young offenders who were asked to complete questionnaires about their school experience, school climate and parental supervision. We used multinomial logit model with maximum likelihood estimation to evaluate relationships between the variables of interest. Over half (310) of these young people had committed at least one violent offence. Seventy-six (13%) reported having experienced emotional bullying at school and 31 (5%) physical bullying. Violent offending was over twice as likely as property offending to be associated with emotional bullying history (OR 2.38, CI 1.13-5.01), but three times less likely with physical bullying (OR 0.31, CI 0.11-0.87). In addition, parental control (but not school climate) increased the likelihood of violent offending or other delinquency by 15% (OR 1.14, CI 1.02-1.26; OR 1.16, CI 1.01-1.32, respectively). Our overarching finding of a relationship between childhood experience of bullying and later delinquency is in line with Western findings. Where, however, the latter are equivocal on risk of later violence perpetration, we found that being emotionally bullied raises the risk of becoming violent. Our findings also underscore the importance of having studies from a range of cultures. Predictions from Western studies would be that parental control would be protective and school climate a potential risk factor for later violence, but, in Korea, where parenting styles tend to be highly authoritarian, we found differently. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Modeling crash injury severity by road feature to improve safety.

PubMed

Penmetsa, Praveena; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S

2018-01-02

The objective of this research is 2-fold: to (a) model and identify critical road features (or locations) based on crash injury severity and compare it with crash frequency and (b) model and identify drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes by road feature. Crash data from 2011 to 2013 were obtained from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the state of North Carolina. Twenty-three different road features were considered, analyzed, and compared with each other as well as no road feature. A multinomial logit (MNL) model was developed and odds ratios were estimated to investigate the effect of road features on crash injury severity. Among the many road features, underpass, end or beginning of a divided highway, and on-ramp terminal on crossroad are the top 3 critical road features. Intersection crashes are frequent but are not highly likely to result in severe injuries compared to critical road features. Roundabouts are least likely to result in both severe and moderate injuries. Female drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at intersections (4-way and T) compared to male drivers. Adult drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at underpasses. Older drivers are 1.6 times more likely to be involved in a crash at the end or beginning of a divided highway. The findings from this research help to identify critical road features that need to be given priority. As an example, additional advanced warning signs and providing enlarged or highly retroreflective signs that grab the attention of older drivers may help in making locations such as end or beginning of a divided highway much safer. Educating drivers about the necessary skill sets required at critical road features in addition to engineering solutions may further help them adopt safe driving behaviors on the road.
Hot mill process parameters impacting on hot mill tertiary scale formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Jonathan Ian

For high end steel applications surface quality is paramount to deliver a suitable product. A major cause of surface quality issues is from the formation of tertiary scale. The scale formation depends on numerous factors such as thermo-mechanical processing routes, chemical composition, thickness and rolls used. This thesis utilises a collection of data mining techniques to better understand the influence of Hot Mill process parameters on scale formation at Port Talbot Hot Strip Mill in South Wales. The dataset to which these data mining techniques were applied was carefully chosen to reduce process variation. There are several main factors that were considered to minimise this variability including time period, grade and gauge investigated. The following data mining techniques were chosen to investigate this dataset: Partial Least Squares (PLS); Logit Analysis; Principle Component Analysis (PCA); Multinomial Logistical Regression (MLR); Adaptive Neuro Inference Fuzzy Systems (ANFIS). The analysis indicated that the most significant variable for scale formation is the temperature entering the finishing mill. If the temperature is controlled on entering the finishing mill scale will not be formed. Values greater than 1070 °C for the average Roughing Mill and above 1050 °C for the average Crop Shear temperature are considered high, with values greater than this increasing the chance of scale formation. As the temperature increases more scale suppression measures are required to limit scale formation, with high temperatures more likely to generate a greater amount of scale even with fully functional scale suppression systems in place. Chemistry is also a significant factor in scale formation, with Phosphorus being the most significant of the chemistry variables. It is recommended that the chemistry specification for Phosphorus be limited to a maximum value of 0.015 % rather than 0.020 % to limit scale formation. Slabs with higher values should be treated with particular care when being processed through the Hot Mill to limit scale formation.
An exploration of parents’ preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background An increased awareness of patients’ and parents’ care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents’ preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents’ monetary valuation of health and service improvements. Results Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents’ preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents’ estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05. Conclusions In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents’ preferences. PMID:24502508
Heat protection behaviour in the UK: results of an online survey after the 2013 heatwave.

PubMed

Khare, Swarna; Hajat, Shakoor; Kovats, Sari; Lefevre, Carmen E; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine; Dessai, Suraje; Bone, Angie

2015-09-10

The Heatwave Plan for England provides guidance for personal and home protection measures during heatwaves. Although studies in the USA, Australia and Europe have surveyed heat-related behaviours during heatwaves, few have been conducted in the UK. This study assesses personal and housing (at-home) behaviour and housing characteristics of the UK population during the 2013 heatwave. This paper analyses data from 1497 respondents of an online survey on heat protection measures and behaviour. Participants were asked questions about their behaviour during the 2013 heatwave, the characteristics of their current housing as well as about any negative health outcomes experienced due to the hot weather. We used multinomial logit regression to analyse personal and home heat protection behaviour and logistic regression to analyse characteristics of participants' current home (installed air conditioner, curtains etc.). We stratified the outcomes by age, sex, ethnicity, income, education and regional location. In 2013, for all heat-related illness (except tiredness), a higher proportion of those in the younger age groups reported symptoms compared with those in the older age groups. Women, higher income groups and those with higher education levels were found to be more likely to report always/often taking personal heat protective measures. The elderly were less likely to take some personal and home protective measures but were more likely to live in insulated homes and open windows at night to keep their home cool. Our study has found a high level of awareness of the actions to take during heatwaves in the UK, and has identified important demographic indicators of sections of the UK population that might benefit from additional or more targeted information. The health agencies should attempt to provide better information about heatwaves to those vulnerable (elderly, those at risk living in London, low income earners) or identify any barriers that might be preventing them from undertaking protective behaviour.
Influence of Immunology Knowledge on Healthcare and Healthy Lifestyle.

PubMed

Abu Kassim, Noor Lide; Saleh Huddin, Afiqah Binti; Daoud, Jamal Ibrahim; Rahman, Mohammad Tariqur

2016-01-01

Completing a course in Immunology is expected to improve health care knowledge (HCK), which in turn is anticipated to influence a healthy lifestyle (HLS), controlled use of health care services (HCS) and an awareness of emerging health care concerns (HCC). This cross-sectional study was designed to determine whether these interrelationships are empirically supported. Participants involved in this study were government servants from two ministries in Malaysia (n = 356) and university students from a local university (n = 147). Participants were selected using the non-random purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a self-developed questionnaire, which had been validated in a pilot study involving similar subjects. The questionnaire items were analyzed using Rasch analysis, SPSS version 21 and AMOS version 22. Results have shown that participants who followed a course in Immunology (CoI) had a higher primary HCK (Mean = 0.69 logit, SD = 1.29 logits) compared with those who had not (Mean = -0.27logit, SD = 1.26 logits). Overall, there were significant correlations among the HLS, the awareness of emerging HCC, and the controlled use of HCS (p <0.001). However, no significant correlations were observed between primary HCK and the other variables. However, significant positive correlation was observed between primary HCK and controlled use of HCS for the group without CoI. Path analysis showed that the awareness of emerging HCC exerted a positive influence on controlled use of HCS (β = 0.156, p < .001) and on HLS (β = 0.224, p < .001). These findings suggest that having CoI helps increase primary HCK which influences controlled use of HCS but does not necessarily influence HLS. Hence, introducing Immunology at various levels of education and increasing the public awareness of emerging HCC might help to improve population health en masse. In addition, further investigations on the factors affecting HLS is required to provide a better understanding on the relationship between primary HCK and HLS.
The Application of Censored Regression Models in Low Streamflow Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, C.; Luz, J.

2003-12-01

Estimation of low streamflow statistics at gauged and ungauged river sites is often a daunting task. This process is further confounded by the presence of intermittent streamflows, where streamflow is sometimes reported as zero, within a region. Streamflows recorded as zero may be zero, or may be less than the measurement detection limit. Such data is often referred to as censored data. Numerous methods have been developed to characterize intermittent streamflow series. Logit regression has been proposed to develop regional models of the probability annual lowflows series (such as 7-day lowflows) are zero. In addition, Tobit regression, a method of regression that allows for censored dependent variables, has been proposed for lowflow regional regression models in regions where the lowflow statistic of interest estimated as zero at some sites in the region. While these methods have been proposed, their use in practice has been limited. Here a delete-one jackknife simulation is presented to examine the performance of Logit and Tobit models of 7-day annual minimum flows in 6 USGS water resource regions in the United States. For the Logit model, an assessment is made of whether sites are correctly classified as having at least 10% of 7-day annual lowflows equal to zero. In such a situation, the 7-day, 10-year lowflow (Q710), a commonly employed low streamflow statistic, would be reported as zero. For the Tobit model, a comparison is made between results from the Tobit model, and from performing either ordinary least squares (OLS) or principal component regression (PCR) after the zero sites are dropped from the analysis. Initial results for the Logit model indicate this method to have a high probability of correctly classifying sites into groups with Q710s as zero and non-zero. Initial results also indicate the Tobit model produces better results than PCR and OLS when more than 5% of the sites in the region have Q710 values calculated as zero.
A Bayesian Multinomial Probit MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL CHOICE DATA.

PubMed

Fong, Duncan K H; Kim, Sunghoon; Chen, Zhe; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2016-03-01

A new Bayesian multinomial probit model is proposed for the analysis of panel choice data. Using a parameter expansion technique, we are able to devise a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute our Bayesian estimates efficiently. We also show that the proposed procedure enables the estimation of individual level coefficients for the single-period multinomial probit model even when the available prior information is vague. We apply our new procedure to consumer purchase data and reanalyze a well-known scanner panel dataset that reveals new substantive insights. In addition, we delineate a number of advantageous features of our proposed procedure over several benchmark models. Finally, through a simulation analysis employing a fractional factorial design, we demonstrate that the results from our proposed model are quite robust with respect to differing factors across various conditions.
Parameter Estimation for the Dirichlet-Multinomial Distribution Using Supplementary Beta-Binomial Data.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

multinomial distribution as a magazine exposure model. J. of Marketing Research . 21, 100-106. Lehmann, E.L. (1983). Theory of Point Estimation. John Wiley and... Marketing Research . 21, 89-99. V I flWflW WflW~WWMWSS tWN ,rw fl rwwrwwr-w~ w-. ~. - - -- .~ 𔃾 4’.) ~a 4’ ., 𔃾. ’-4. .4.: .4~ I .4. ~J3iAf a,’ -a’ 4
The relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aygunes, Gunes

2017-07-01

The objective of this paper is to survey and determine the macroeconomic factors affecting the level of venture capital (VC) investments in a country. The literary depends on venture capitalists' quality and countries' venture capital investments. The aim of this paper is to give relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method. We investigate the countries and macro economic variables. By using statistical computation method, we derive correlation between venture capital investments and macro economic variables. According to method of logistic regression model (logit regression or logit model), macro economic variables are correlated with each other in three group. Venture capitalists regard correlations as a indicator. Finally, we give correlation matrix of our results.
Arsenic exposure and oral cavity lesions in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Syed, Emdadul H; Melkonian, Stephanie; Poudel, Krishna C; Yasuoka, Junko; Otsuka, Keiko; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Parvez, Faruque; Slavkovich, Vesna; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul; Jimba, Masamine

2013-01-01

To evaluate the relationship between arsenic exposure and oral cavity lesions among an arsenic-exposed population in Bangladesh. We carried out an analysis utilizing the baseline data of the Health Effects of Arsenic Exposure Longitudinal Study, which is an ongoing population-based cohort study to investigate health outcomes associated with arsenic exposure via drinking water in Araihazar, Bangladesh. We used multinomial regression models to estimate the risk of oral cavity lesions. Participants with high urinary arsenic levels (286.1 to 5000.0 μg/g) were more likely to develop arsenical lesions of the gums (multinomial odds ratio = 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 7.54), and tongue (multinomial odds ratio = 2.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.51 to 5.15), compared with those with urinary arsenic levels of 7.0 to 134.0 μg/g. Higher level of arsenic exposure was positively associated with increased arsenical lesions of the gums and tongue.
Modelling of binary logistic regression for obesity among secondary students in a rural area of Kedah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaruddin, Ainur Amira; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2014-07-01

Logistic regression analysis examines the influence of various factors on a dichotomous outcome by estimating the probability of the event's occurrence. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is a statistical procedure used to model dichotomous outcomes. In the logit model the log odds of the dichotomous outcome is modeled as a linear combination of the predictor variables. The log odds ratio in logistic regression provides a description of the probabilistic relationship of the variables and the outcome. In conducting logistic regression, selection procedures are used in selecting important predictor variables, diagnostics are used to check that assumptions are valid which include independence of errors, linearity in the logit for continuous variables, absence of multicollinearity, and lack of strongly influential outliers and a test statistic is calculated to determine the aptness of the model. This study used the binary logistic regression model to investigate overweight and obesity among rural secondary school students on the basis of their demographics profile, medical history, diet and lifestyle. The results indicate that overweight and obesity of students are influenced by obesity in family and the interaction between a student's ethnicity and routine meals intake. The odds of a student being overweight and obese are higher for a student having a family history of obesity and for a non-Malay student who frequently takes routine meals as compared to a Malay student.

Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Brewer, Shannon K.

2017-01-01

Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N-mixture model. Multinomial N-mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N-mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N-mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the hierarchical framework. We demonstrate the application of this contemporary population estimation method to address a longstanding stream fish management issue. We also detail the advantages and trade-offs of hierarchical population estimation methods relative to CPUE and estimation methods that model each site separately.
Zero adjusted models with applications to analysing helminths count data.

PubMed

Chipeta, Michael G; Ngwira, Bagrey M; Simoonga, Christopher; Kazembe, Lawrence N

2014-11-27

It is common in public health and epidemiology that the outcome of interest is counts of events occurrence. Analysing these data using classical linear models is mostly inappropriate, even after transformation of outcome variables due to overdispersion. Zero-adjusted mixture count models such as zero-inflated and hurdle count models are applied to count data when over-dispersion and excess zeros exist. Main objective of the current paper is to apply such models to analyse risk factors associated with human helminths (S. haematobium) particularly in a case where there's a high proportion of zero counts. The data were collected during a community-based randomised control trial assessing the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Malawi, and a school-based cross sectional epidemiology survey in Zambia. Count data models including traditional (Poisson and negative binomial) models, zero modified models (zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) and hurdle models (Poisson logit hurdle and negative binomial logit hurdle) were fitted and compared. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the negative binomial logit hurdle (NBLH) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) showed best performance in both datasets. With regards to zero count capturing, these models performed better than other models. This paper showed that zero modified NBLH and ZINB models are more appropriate methods for the analysis of data with excess zeros. The choice between the hurdle and zero-inflated models should be based on the aim and endpoints of the study.
Multinomial logistic regression in workers' health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilo, Luís M.; Grilo, Helena L.; Gonçalves, Sónia P.; Junça, Ana

2017-11-01

In European countries, namely in Portugal, it is common to hear some people mentioning that they are exposed to excessive and continuous psychosocial stressors at work. This is increasing in diverse activity sectors, such as, the Services sector. A representative sample was collected from a Portuguese Services' organization, by applying a survey (internationally validated), which variables were measured in five ordered categories in Likert-type scale. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of each category of the dependent variable general health perception where, among other independent variables, burnout appear as statistically significant.
A computer program for estimation from incomplete multinomial data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Credeur, K. R.

1978-01-01

Coding is given for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the vector p of multinomial cell probabilities from incomplete data. Also included is coding to calculate and approximate elements of the posterior mean and covariance matrices. The program is written in FORTRAN 4 language for the Control Data CYBER 170 series digital computer system with network operating system (NOS) 1.1. The program requires approximately 44000 octal locations of core storage. A typical case requires from 72 seconds to 92 seconds on CYBER 175 depending on the value of the prior parameter.
Winter weather demand considerations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...
Lateralization of temporal lobe epilepsy by multimodal multinomial hippocampal response-driven models.

PubMed

Nazem-Zadeh, Mohammad-Reza; Elisevich, Kost V; Schwalb, Jason M; Bagher-Ebadian, Hassan; Mahmoudi, Fariborz; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

2014-12-15

Multiple modalities are used in determining laterality in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE). It is unclear how much different imaging modalities should be weighted in decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop response-driven multimodal multinomial models for lateralization of epileptogenicity in mTLE patients based upon imaging features in order to maximize the accuracy of noninvasive studies. The volumes, means and standard deviations of FLAIR intensity and means of normalized ictal-interictal SPECT intensity of the left and right hippocampi were extracted from preoperative images of a retrospective cohort of 45 mTLE patients with Engel class I surgical outcomes, as well as images of a cohort of 20 control, nonepileptic subjects. Using multinomial logistic function regression, the parameters of various univariate and multivariate models were estimated. Based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) theorem, response models were developed as compositions of independent univariate models. A BMA model composed of posterior probabilities of univariate response models of hippocampal volumes, means and standard deviations of FLAIR intensity, and means of SPECT intensity with the estimated weighting coefficients of 0.28, 0.32, 0.09, and 0.31, respectively, as well as a multivariate response model incorporating all mentioned attributes, demonstrated complete reliability by achieving a probability of detection of one with no false alarms to establish proper laterality in all mTLE patients. The proposed multinomial multivariate response-driven model provides a reliable lateralization of mesial temporal epileptogenicity including those patients who require phase II assessment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Modeling the Effect of Enlarging Seating Room on Passengers' Preference of Taiwan's Domestic Airlines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Jin-Long; Tsai, Li-Non

2003-01-01

This study addresses the need for measuring the effect of enlarging seating room in airplane on passengers' preferences of airline in Taiwan. The results can assist Taiwan's domestic air carriers in better understanding their customers' expectations. Stated choice experiment is used to incorporate passengers' trade-offs in the preferred measurement, and three major attributes are taken into account in the stated choice experiment: (1) type of seat (enlarged or not), (2) price, and (3) brand names of airlines. Furthermore, a binary logit model is used to model the choice behavior of air passengers. The findings show that the type of seat is a major significant variable; price and airline's brand are also significant as well. It concludes that air carriers should put more emphasis on the issue of improving the quality of seat comfort. Keywords: Passengers' preference, Enlarged seating room, Stated choice experiment, Binary logit model.
Sample size determination for logistic regression on a logit-normal distribution.

PubMed

Kim, Seongho; Heath, Elisabeth; Heilbrun, Lance

2017-06-01

Although the sample size for simple logistic regression can be readily determined using currently available methods, the sample size calculation for multiple logistic regression requires some additional information, such as the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]) of a covariate of interest with other covariates, which is often unavailable in practice. The response variable of logistic regression follows a logit-normal distribution which can be generated from a logistic transformation of a normal distribution. Using this property of logistic regression, we propose new methods of determining the sample size for simple and multiple logistic regressions using a normal transformation of outcome measures. Simulation studies and a motivating example show several advantages of the proposed methods over the existing methods: (i) no need for [Formula: see text] for multiple logistic regression, (ii) available interim or group-sequential designs, and (iii) much smaller required sample size.
Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

2014-01-01

Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502
Longitudinal analysis of categorical epidemiological data: a study of Three Mile Island.

PubMed

Fienberg, S E; Bromet, E J; Follmann, D; Lambert, D; May, S M

1985-11-01

The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in 1979 led to an unprecedented set of events with potentially life threatening implications. This paper focusses on the analysis of a longitudinal study of the psychological well-being of the mothers of young children living within 10 miles of the plant. The initial analyses of the data utilize loglinear/logit model techniques from the contingency table literature, and involve the fitting of a sequence of logit models. The inadequancies of these analyses are noted, and a new class of mixture models for logistic response structures is introduced to overcome the noted shortcomings. The paper includes a brief outline of the methodology relevant for the fitting of these models using the method of maximum likelihood, and then the model is applied to the TMI data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the substantive implications of the mixture model analysis.
Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

2008-10-01

Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.
Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Calibration and validation of the Physical Activity Barrier Scale for persons who are blind or visually impaired.

PubMed

Lee, Miyoung; Zhu, Weimo; Ackley-Holbrook, Elizabeth; Brower, Diana G; McMurray, Bryan

2014-07-01

It is critical to employ accurate measures when assessing physical activity (PA) barriers in any subpopulation, yet existing measures are not appropriate for persons with blindness or visual impairment (PBVI) due to a lack of validity or reliability evidence. To develop and calibrate a PA barrier scale for PBVI. An expert panel (n = 3) and 18 PBVI were recruited to establish content validity for a PA barriers subscale; 160 PBVI (96 females) completed the scale along with the Physical Activity Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities for calibration. To establish construct-related validity evidence, Confirmative factor analysis (CFA) and Rasch analysis were applied. To investigate internal consistency and reliability, Cronbach's alpha and the reliability coefficient (R) were employed, respectively. Following CFA and Rasch analyses, five items were eliminated due to misfits; reliability coefficients were unchanged upon deletion of these items. The barriers perceived by PBVI to have the most negative impact on PA included "lack of self-discipline" (logit = 1.40) and "lack of motivation" (logit = 1.27). "Too many stairs in the exercise facility" (logit = -1.49) was perceived to have the least impact. The newly-developed scale was found to be a valid and reliable tool for evaluating PA barriers in PBVI. To enhance promotion of health-producing levels of PA in PBVI, practitioners should consider applying this new tool as a precursor to programs aimed at improving PA participation in this group. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Methodologies for Evaluating the Impact of Contraceptive Social Marketing Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertrand, Jane T.; And Others

1989-01-01

An overview of the evaluation issues associated with contraceptive social marketing programs is provided. Methodologies covered include survey techniques, cost-effectiveness analyses, retail audits of sales data, time series analysis, nested logit analysis, and discriminant analysis. (TJH)
Impact of First Eye versus Second Eye Cataract Surgery on Visual Function and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Shekhawat, Nakul S; Stock, Michael V; Baze, Elizabeth F; Daly, Mary K; Vollman, David E; Lawrence, Mary G; Chomsky, Amy S

2017-10-01

To compare the impact of first eye versus second eye cataract surgery on visual function and quality of life. Cohort study. A total of 328 patients undergoing separate first eye and second eye phacoemulsification cataract surgeries at 5 veterans affairs centers in the United States. Patients with previous ocular surgery, postoperative endophthalmitis, postoperative retinal detachment, reoperation within 30 days, dementia, anxiety disorder, hearing difficulty, or history of drug abuse were excluded. Patients received complete preoperative and postoperative ophthalmic examinations for first eye and second eye cataract surgeries. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was measured 30 to 90 days preoperatively and postoperatively. Patients completed the National Eye Institute Visual Functioning Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ) 30 to 90 days preoperatively and postoperatively. The NEI-VFQ scores were calculated using a traditional subscale scoring algorithm and a Rasch-refined approach producing visual function and socioemotional subscale scores. Postoperative NEI-VFQ scores and improvement in NEI-VFQ scores comparing first eye versus second eye cataract surgery. Mean age was 70.4 years (±9.6 standard deviation [SD]). Compared with second eyes, first eyes had worse mean preoperative BCVA (0.55 vs. 0.36 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR), P < 0.001), greater mean BCVA improvement after surgery (-0.50 vs. -0.32 logMAR, P < 0.001), and slightly worse postoperative BCVA (0.06 vs. 0.03 logMAR, P = 0.039). Compared with first eye surgery, second eye surgery resulted in higher postoperative NEI-VFQ scores for nearly all traditional subscales (P < 0.001), visual function subscale (-3.85 vs. -2.91 logits, P < 0.001), and socioemotional subscale (-2.63 vs. -2.10 logits, P < 0.001). First eye surgery improved visual function scores more than second eye surgery (-2.99 vs. -2.67 logits, P = 0.021), but both first and second eye surgeries resulted in similar improvements in socioemotional scores (-1.62 vs. -1.51 logits, P = 0.255). Second eye cataract surgery improves visual function and quality of life well beyond levels achieved after first eye cataract surgery alone. For certain socioemotional aspects of quality of life, second eye cataract surgery results in comparable improvement to first eye cataract surgery. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Ophthalmology. All rights reserved.
Quality of care and the demand for health services in Bamako, Mali: the specific roles of structural, process, and outcome components.

PubMed

Mariko, Mamadou

2003-03-01

The public finance and foreign exchange crisis of the 1980s aggravated the unfavourable economic trends in many developing countries and resulted in budget cuts in the health sector. Policymakers, following the suggestions of World Bank experts, introduced user fees. Economic analysis of the demand for health care in these countries focused on the impact of price and income on health service utilisation. But the lesson to date from experiences in cost recovery is that without visible and fairly immediate improvements in the quality of care, the implementation of user fees will cause service utilisation to drop. For this reason, the role of quality of health care has been recently a subject of investigation in a number of health care demand studies. In spite of using the data from both households and facilities, recent studies are quite limited because they measure quality only by structural attributes (availability of drugs, equipment, number and qualifications of staff, and so on). Structural attributes of quality are necessary but not sufficient conditions for demand. A unique feature of this study is that it also considers the processes followed by practitioners and the outcome of care, to determine simultaneously the respective influence of price and quality on decision making. A nested multinomial logit was used to examine the choice between six alternatives (self-treatment, modern treatment at home, public hospital, public dispensary, for-profit facility and non-profit facility). The estimations are based on data from a statistically representative sample of 1104 patients from 1191 households and the data from a stratified random sample of 42 out of 84 facilities identified. The results indicate that omitting the process quality variables from the demand model produces a bias not only in the estimated coefficient of the "price" variable but also in coefficients of some structural attributes of the quality. The simulations suggest that price has a minor effect on utilisation of health services, and that health authorities can simultaneously double user fees and increase utilisation by emphasising improvement of both the structural and process quality of care in public health facilities.
Genetic parameter estimation of reproductive traits of Litopenaeus vannamei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Jian; Kong, Jie; Cao, Baoxiang; Luo, Kun; Liu, Ning; Meng, Xianhong; Xu, Shengyu; Guo, Zhaojia; Chen, Guoliang; Luan, Sheng

2017-02-01

In this study, the heritability, repeatability, phenotypic correlation, and genetic correlation of the reproductive and growth traits of L. vannamei were investigated and estimated. Eight traits of 385 shrimps from forty-two families, including the number of eggs (EN), number of nauplii (NN), egg diameter (ED), spawning frequency (SF), spawning success (SS), female body weight (BW) and body length (BL) at insemination, and condition factor (K), were measured,. A total of 519 spawning records including multiple spawning and 91 no spawning records were collected. The genetic parameters were estimated using an animal model, a multinomial logit model (for SF), and a sire-dam and probit model (for SS). Because there were repeated records, permanent environmental effects were included in the models. The heritability estimates for BW, BL, EN, NN, ED, SF, SS, and K were 0.49 ± 0.14, 0.51 ± 0.14, 0.12 ± 0.08, 0, 0.01 ± 0.04, 0.06 ± 0.06, 0.18 ± 0.07, and 0.10 ± 0.06, respectively. The genetic correlation was 0.99 ± 0.01 between BW and BL, 0.90 ± 0.19 between BW and EN, 0.22 ± 0.97 between BW and ED, -0.77 ± 1.14 between EN and ED, and -0.27 ± 0.36 between BW and K. The heritability of EN estimated without a covariate was 0.12 ± 0.08, and the genetic correlation was 0.90 ± 0.19 between BW and EN, indicating that improving BW may be used in selection programs to genetically improve the reproductive output of L. vannamei during the breeding. For EN, the data were also analyzed using body weight as a covariate (EN-2). The heritability of EN-2 was 0.03 ± 0.05, indicating that it is difficult to improve the reproductive output by genetic improvement. Furthermore, excessive pursuit of this selection is often at the expense of growth speed. Therefore, the selection of high-performance spawners using BW and SS may be an important strategy to improve nauplii production.
Tensile bond strength of an adhesive resin cement to different alloys having various surface treatments.

PubMed

Abreu, Amara; Loza, Maria A; Elias, Augusto; Mukhopadhyay, Siuli; Looney, Stephen; Rueggeberg, Frederick A

2009-02-01

The ability of a resin cement to bond to a restorative alloy is critical for maximal crown retention to nonideal preparations. Surface treatment and metal type may have an important role in optimizing resin-to-metal strength. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of surface pretreatment on the tensile strength of base and noble metals bonded using a conventional resin cement. Cylindrical plastic rods (9.5 mm in diameter), cast in base (Rexillium NBF) or noble metal (IPS d.SIGN 53), were divided into rods 10 mm in length (n=10-12). Specimens were heated in a porcelain furnace to create an oxide layer. Test specimens were further subjected to airborne-particle abrasion (50-microm Al(2)O(3) particles) alone or with the application of a metal primer (Alloy Primer). Similarly treated rod ends were joined using resin cement (RelyX ARC), thermocycled (x500, 5 degrees -55 degrees C) and stored (24 hours, 37 degrees C) before debonding using a universal testing machine. Debond strength and failure site were recorded. Rank-based ANOVA for unbalanced designs was used to test for significant interaction (alpha=.050). Each pair of treatments was compared separately for each metal (Bonferroni-adjusted significance level of .0083, overall error rate for comparisons, .05). The 2 metals were compared separately for each of the 3 treatments using an adjusted significance level of .017, maintaining an overall error rate of .05. A multinomial logit model was used to describe the effect of metal type and surface pretreatment on failure site location (alpha=.05). Interaction between metal type and surface pretreatment was significant for stress values (P=.019). Metal type did not significantly affect tensile bond strength for any of the compared surface pretreatments. Metal primer significantly improved tensile bond strength for each metal type. Most failures tended to occur as either adhesive or mixed in nature. Metal primer application significantly enhanced tensile bond strength to base and noble metal. No significant differences in tensile strength were found between alloys. Differences in failure site incidence were found to be related to metal type and surface pretreatment.
Evaluating and establishing national norms for mental wellbeing using the short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (SWEMWBS): findings from the Health Survey for England.

PubMed

Ng Fat, Linda; Scholes, Shaun; Boniface, Sadie; Mindell, Jennifer; Stewart-Brown, Sarah

2017-05-01

The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS), 14 positively worded statements, is a validated instrument to measure mental wellbeing on a population level. Less is known about the population distribution of the shorter seven-item version (SWEMWBS) or its performance as an instrument to measure wellbeing. Using the Health Survey for England 2010-2013 (n = 27,169 adults aged 16+, nationally representative of the population), age- and sex-specific norms were estimated using means and percentiles. Criterion validity was examined using: (1) Spearman correlations (ρ) for SWEMWBS with General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), happiness index, EQ-VAS (2) a multinomial logit model with SWEMWBS (low, medium and high wellbeing) as the outcome and demographic, social and health behaviours as explanatory variables. Relative validity was examined by comparing SWEMWBS with WEMWBS using: (1) Spearman correlations (continuous data), and (2) the weighted kappa statistic (categorical), within population subgroups. Mean (median) SWEMWBS was 23.7 (23.2) for men and 23.2 (23.2) for women (p = 0.100). Spearman correlations were moderately sized for the happiness index (ρ = 0.53, P < 0.001), GHQ-12 (ρ = -0.52, p < 0.001) and EQ-VAS (ρ = 0.40, p < 0.001). Participants consuming <1 portion of fruit and vegetables a day versus ≥5 (odds ratio = 1.43 95% Confidence Interval = (1.22-1.66)) and current smokers versus non-smokers (1.28 (1.15-1.41)) were more likely to have low vs medium wellbeing. Participants who binge drank versus non-drinkers were less likely to have high versus medium wellbeing (0.81 (0.71-0.92)). Spearman correlations between SWEMWBS and WEMWBS were above 0.95; weighted kappa statistics showed almost perfect agreement (0.79-0.85). SWEMWBS distinguishes mental wellbeing between subgroups, similarly to WEMWBS, but is less sensitive to gender differences.
Preferences for ARV-based HIV prevention methods among men and women, adolescent girls and female sex workers in Gauteng Province, South Africa: a protocol for a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Quaife, Matthew; Eakle, Robyn; Cabrera, Maria; Vickerman, Peter; Tsepe, Motlalepule; Cianci, Fiona; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Terris-Prestholt, Fern

2016-06-27

For the past few decades, condoms have been the main method of HIV prevention. Recent advances in antiretroviral (ARV)-based prevention products have substantially changed the prevention landscape, yet little is known about how popular these products will be among potential users, or whether new methods might be used in conjunction with, or instead of, condoms. This study will use a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to (1) explore potential users' preferences regarding HIV prevention products, (2) quantify the importance of product attributes and (3) predict the uptake of products to inform estimates of their potential impact on the HIV epidemic in South Africa. We consider preferences for oral pre-exposure prophylaxis; a vaginal microbicide gel; a long-acting vaginal ring; a SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel; and a long-acting ARV-based injectable. This study will gather data from 4 populations: 200 women, 200 men, 200 adolescent girls (aged 16-17 years) and 200 female sex workers. The DCE attributes and design will be developed through a literature review, supplemented by a thematic analysis of qualitative focus group discussions. Extensive piloting will be carried out in each population through semistructured interviews. The final survey will be conducted using computer tablets via a household sample (for women, men and adolescents) and respondent-driven sampling (for female sex workers), and DCE data analysed using a range of multinomial logit models. This study has been approved by the University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee and the Research Ethics Committee at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Findings will be presented to international conferences and peer-reviewed journals. Meetings will be held with opinion leaders in South Africa, while results will be disseminated to participants in Ekurhuleni through a public meeting or newsletter. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Associations between contractual status, part-time work, and intent to leave among professional caregivers for older people: results of a national cross-sectional survey in Japan.

PubMed

Kachi, Yuko; Inoue, Kazuo; Toyokawa, Satoshi

2010-08-01

Despite a growing number of studies on leaving the organization or long-term care among professional caregivers for older people, little is known about the impact of types of employment on leaving. To examine the association between the type of employment and intent to leave among Japanese professional caregivers. Secondary analysis of data from the 2006 Working Conditions Survey in Long-term Care, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey done in Japan. 10,107 professional caregivers aged 18 years and older. Predictor of intent to leave was type of employment (full-time permanent, full-time precarious, and part-time precarious). Precarious work was defined as employment that failed to meet the standard of full-time permanent employment, including fixed-term, temporary agency, and part-time work. Covariates included demographics, home or facility care, tenure in the profession, national qualification for caregivers, having other jobs, overtime work, and night shift work. We used multinomial logit models to estimate the strength of the association between the type of employment and intent to leave and to explore the possible mechanisms explaining this association. In the unadjusted model, when compared to part-time precarious workers, full-time permanent workers (OR=2.37; 95% CI=2.06, 2.72) and full-time precarious workers (OR=2.41; 95% CI=2.01, 2.88) were more likely to report intent to leave. After adjustment for covariates, these odds ratios were attenuated, but nevertheless remained significant. Overtime work greatly attenuated these odds ratios in both full-time precarious and full-time permanent workers, and having national qualification for caregivers only did in the case of full-time permanent workers. In contrast to people in other professions, full-time caregivers are more likely to have intent to leave than part-time caregivers. This study highlights the importance of policy strategies for retaining full-time workers by reducing their overtime work and rewarding caregivers who have national qualifications. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The impact of pain on labor force participation, absenteeism and presenteeism in the European Union.

PubMed

Langley, Paul; Müller-Schwefe, Gerhard; Nicolaou, Andrew; Liedgens, Hiltrud; Pergolizzi, Joseph; Varrassi, Giustino

2010-01-01

The aims of this paper are to generate estimates of the association between the experience and burden of pain, by severity and frequency, with (1) labor force participation and workforce status in five EU countries (the UK, France, Spain, Germany and Italy) and (2) patterns of absenteeism and presenteeism for the employed workforce. Data are from the internet-based 2008 National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS). This survey covers both those who report experiencing pain in the last month as well as the no pain population. A series of regression models are developed with the no pain group as the reference category. The impact of pain, categorized by severity and frequency reported, is assessed within a labor supply framework for (1) labor force participation and (2) absenteeism and presenteeism. In the former case both binomial and multinomial logistic models are estimated; in the latter case ordered logit models are estimated. The results demonstrate that, in the context of health status, the experience of frequent severe and moderate pain has a dominant, independent and negative association with labor force participation and employment status as well as absenteeism and presenteeism. The presence of severe daily pain is associated with a 20-point reduction in the probability of being employed full-time; with moderate daily pain associated with a 10-point reduction. The impact of pain is far greater than the potential impact of other health status measures (e.g., chronic comorbidities and BMI). The experience of pain, notably severe and frequent pain, also outstrips the impact of other health status factors in absenteeism and presenteeism. The experience of pain, in particular severe daily pain, has a substantial negative association with labor force participation in these five European countries as well as reported absenteeism and presenteeism. As a measure of health status, it clearly outweighs other health status measures. Whether or not pain is considered as a disease in its own right, the experience of chronic pain, as defined here, presents policy makers with a major challenge. Programs to relieve the burden of pain in the community clearly have the potential for substantial benefits from societal, individual and employer perspectives.
Survival and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes among Periviable Infants.

PubMed

Younge, Noelle; Goldstein, Ricki F; Bann, Carla M; Hintz, Susan R; Patel, Ravi M; Smith, P Brian; Bell, Edward F; Rysavy, Matthew A; Duncan, Andrea F; Vohr, Betty R; Das, Abhik; Goldberg, Ronald N; Higgins, Rosemary D; Cotten, C Michael

2017-02-16

Data reported during the past 5 years indicate that rates of survival have increased among infants born at the borderline of viability, but less is known about how increased rates of survival among these infants relate to early childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes. We compared survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes among infants born at 22 to 24 weeks of gestation, as assessed at 18 to 22 months of corrected age, across three consecutive birth-year epochs (2000-2003 [epoch 1], 2004-2007 [epoch 2], and 2008-2011 [epoch 3]). The infants were born at 11 centers that participated in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. The primary outcome measure was a three-level outcome - survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, or death. After accounting for differences in infant characteristics, including birth center, we used multinomial generalized logit models to compare the relative risk of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, and death. Data on the primary outcome were available for 4274 of 4458 infants (96%) born at the 11 centers. The percentage of infants who survived increased from 30% (424 of 1391 infants) in epoch 1 to 36% (487 of 1348 infants) in epoch 3 (P<0.001). The percentage of infants who survived without neurodevelopmental impairment increased from 16% (217 of 1391) in epoch 1 to 20% (276 of 1348) in epoch 3 (P=0.001), whereas the percentage of infants who survived with neurodevelopmental impairment did not change significantly (15% [207 of 1391] in epoch 1 and 16% [211 of 1348] in epoch 3, P=0.29). After adjustment for changes in the baseline characteristics of the infants over time, both the rate of survival with neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) and the rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) increased over time (adjusted relative risks, 1.27 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.01 to 1.59] and 1.59 [95% CI, 1.28 to 1.99], respectively). The rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment increased between 2000 and 2011 in this large cohort of periviable infants. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 and NCT00009633 .).
A measurement theory of illusory conjunctions.

PubMed

Prinzmetal, William; Ivry, Richard B; Beck, Diane; Shimizu, Naomi

2002-04-01

Illusory conjunctions refer to the incorrect perceptual combination of correctly perceived features, such as color and shape. Research on the phenomenon has been hampered by the lack of a measurement theory that accounts for guessing features, as well as the incorrect combination of correctly perceived features. Recently, several investigators have suggested using multinomial models as a tool for measuring feature integration. The authors examined the adequacy of these models in 2 experiments by testing whether model parameters reflect changes in stimulus factors. In a third experiment, confidence ratings were used as a tool for testing the model. Multinomial models accurately reflected both variations in stimulus factors and observers' trial-by-trial confidence ratings.
Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.
Classification of Effective Soil Depth by Using Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, C. H.; Chan, H. C.; Chen, B. A.

2016-12-01

Classification of effective soil depth is a task of determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in Taiwan. The "Slopeland Conservation and Utilization Act" categorizes the slopeland into agriculture and husbandry land, land suitable for forestry and land for enhanced conservation according to the factors including average slope, effective soil depth, soil erosion and parental rock. However, sit investigation of the effective soil depth requires a cost-effective field work. This research aimed to classify the effective soil depth by using multinomial logistic regression with the environmental factors. The Wen-Shui Watershed located at the central Taiwan was selected as the study areas. The analysis of multinomial logistic regression is performed by the assistance of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The effective soil depth was categorized into four levels including deeper, deep, shallow and shallower. The environmental factors of slope, aspect, digital elevation model (DEM), curvature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were selected for classifying the soil depth. An Error Matrix was then used to assess the model accuracy. The results showed an overall accuracy of 75%. At the end, a map of effective soil depth was produced to help planners and decision makers in determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in the study areas.
[The importance of memory bias in obtaining age of menarche by recall method in Brazilian adolescents].

PubMed

Castilho, Silvia Diez; Nucci, Luciana Bertoldi; Assuino, Samanta Ramos; Hansen, Lucca Ortolan

2014-06-01

To compare the age at menarche obtained by recall method according to the time elapsed since the event, in order to verify the importance of the recall bias. Were evaluated 1,671 girls (7-18 years) at schools in Campinas-SP regarding the occurrence of menarche by the status quo method (menarche: yes or no) and the recall method (date of menarche, for those who mentioned it). The age at menarche obtained by the status quo method was calculated by logit, which considers the whole group, and the age obtained by the recall method was calculated as the average of the mentioned age at menarche. In this group, the age at menarche was obtained by the difference between the date of the event and the date of birth. Girls who reported menarche (883, 52.8%) were divided into four groups according to the time elapsed since the event. To analyze the results, we used ANOVA and logistic regression for the analysis, with a significance level of 0.05. The age at menarche calculated by logit was 12.14 y/o (95% CI 12.08 to 12.20). Mean ages obtained by recall were: for those who experienced menarche within the previous year 12.26 y/o (±1.14), between > 1-2 years before, 12.29 y (±1.22); between > 2-3 years before, 12.23 y/o (±1.27); and more than 3 years before, 11.55y/o (±1.24), p < 0.001. The age at menarche obtained by the recall method was similar for girls who menstruated within the previous 3 years (and approaches the age calculated by logit); when more than 3 years have passed, the recall bias was significant.
Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

2003-01-01

Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning
Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Median infectious dose (ID₅₀) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus isolate MN-184 via aerosol exposure.

PubMed

Cutler, Timothy D; Wang, Chong; Hoff, Steven J; Kittawornrat, Apisit; Zimmerman, Jeffrey J

2011-08-05

The median infectious dose (ID(50)) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus isolate MN-184 was determined for aerosol exposure. In 7 replicates, 3-week-old pigs (n=58) respired 10l of airborne PRRS virus from a dynamic aerosol toroid (DAT) maintained at -4°C. Thereafter, pigs were housed in isolation and monitored for evidence of infection. Infection occurred at virus concentrations too low to quantify by microinfectivity assays. Therefore, exposure dose was determined using two indirect methods ("calculated" and "theoretical"). "Calculated" virus dose was derived from the concentration of rhodamine B monitored over the exposure sequence. "Theoretical" virus dose was based on the continuous stirred-tank reactor model. The ID(50) estimate was modeled on the proportion of pigs that became infected using the probit and logit link functions for both "calculated" and "theoretical" exposure doses. Based on "calculated" doses, the probit and logit ID(50) estimates were 1 × 10(-0.13)TCID(50) and 1 × 10(-0.14)TCID(50), respectively. Based on "theoretical" doses, the probit and logit ID(50) were 1 × 10(0.26)TCID(50) and 1 × 10(0.24)TCID(50), respectively. For each point estimate, the 95% confidence interval included the other three point estimates. The results indicated that MN-184 was far more infectious than PRRS virus isolate VR-2332, the only other PRRS virus isolate for which ID(50) has been estimated for airborne exposure. Since aerosol ID(50) estimates are available for only these two isolates, it is uncertain whether one or both of these isolates represent the normal range of PRRS virus infectivity by this route. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Anger and Desire for Retribution among Bereaved Parents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drenovsky, Cynthia K.

1994-01-01

Logit results show suddenness of death contributes to likelihood parent will feel anger while anticipatory socialization to death or recency of death decreases odds of feeling anger toward child. All variables decrease likelihood parents will feel desire to punish someone for death of child. (BF)
Dropout from Secondary Education: All's Well That Begins Well

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Witte, Kristof; Rogge, Nicky

2013-01-01

Despite the increased attention to students leaving secondary education without a diploma numerous students still dropout yearly. This paper makes a distinction between the "individual perspective" and the "institutional perspective" of dropping out. The former is explored by multinominal logit models. We observe that…
Measuring Developmental Students' Mathematics Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Yanqing

2016-01-01

This study conducted an item-level analysis of mathematics anxiety and examined the dimensionality of mathematics anxiety in a sample of developmental mathematics students (N = 162) by Multi-dimensional Random Coefficients Multinominal Logit Model (MRCMLM). The results indicate a moderately correlated factor structure of mathematics anxiety (r =…
Community forestry as perceived by local people around Cross River National Park, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ezebilo, Eugene E

2012-01-01

The prior identification of local people's preferences for conservation-development projects will help gear nature-conservation strategies toward the needs of different groups of local people. This will help policy-makers in designing a more acceptable and effective conservation strategy. This article reports a study of local perceptions of a community forestry project that aims to help improve the design as well as local acceptance of the project. The data originated from personal interviews conducted in communities around Okwangwo Division of the Cross River National Park in southeast Nigeria and were analysed using ordered logit and binary logit models. The results showed that >50% of the respondents were satisfied with the community forestry project. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by education, age, gender, and willingness to contribute money to tourism as well as the contributions of cocoa, banana, and afang (Gnetum africanum) to the respondents' income. The results from this study have important implications for nature conservation in Nigeria and potentially other conservation contexts across the developing world.
Community Forestry as Perceived by Local People Around Cross River National Park, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezebilo, Eugene E.

2012-01-01

The prior identification of local people's preferences for conservation-development projects will help gear nature-conservation strategies toward the needs of different groups of local people. This will help policy-makers in designing a more acceptable and effective conservation strategy. This article reports a study of local perceptions of a community forestry project that aims to help improve the design as well as local acceptance of the project. The data originated from personal interviews conducted in communities around Okwangwo Division of the Cross River National Park in southeast Nigeria and were analysed using ordered logit and binary logit models. The results showed that >50% of the respondents were satisfied with the community forestry project. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by education, age, gender, and willingness to contribute money to tourism as well as the contributions of cocoa, banana, and afang ( Gnetum africanum) to the respondents' income. The results from this study have important implications for nature conservation in Nigeria and potentially other conservation contexts across the developing world.
Reviews Equipment: Data logger Book: Imagined Worlds Equipment: Mini data loggers Equipment: PICAXE-18M2 data logger Books: Engineering: A Very Short Introduction and To Engineer Is Human Book: Soap, Science, & Flat-Screen TVs Equipment: uLog and SensorLab Web Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2012-07-01

WE RECOMMEND Data logger Fourier NOVA LINK: data logging and analysis To Engineer is Human Engineering: essays and insights Soap, Science, & Flat-Screen TVs People, politics, business and science overlap uLog sensors and sensor adapter A new addition to the LogIT range offers simplicity and ease of use WORTH A LOOK Imagined Worlds Socio-scientific predictions for the future Mini light data logger and mini temperature data logger Small-scale equipment for schools SensorLab Plus LogIT's supporting software, with extra features HANDLE WITH CARE CAXE110P PICAXE-18M2 data logger Data logger 'on view' but disappoints Engineering: A Very Short Introduction A broad-brush treatment fails to satisfy WEB WATCH Two very different websites for students: advanced physics questions answered and a more general BBC science resource
Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data

PubMed Central

Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

2015-01-01

Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability. PMID:26436917
Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

PubMed

Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

2015-01-01

Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.
The arcsine is asinine: the analysis of proportions in ecology.

PubMed

Warton, David I; Hui, Francis K C

2011-01-01

The arcsine square root transformation has long been standard procedure when analyzing proportional data in ecology, with applications in data sets containing binomial and non-binomial response variables. Here, we argue that the arcsine transform should not be used in either circumstance. For binomial data, logistic regression has greater interpretability and higher power than analyses of transformed data. However, it is important to check the data for additional unexplained variation, i.e., overdispersion, and to account for it via the inclusion of random effects in the model if found. For non-binomial data, the arcsine transform is undesirable on the grounds of interpretability, and because it can produce nonsensical predictions. The logit transformation is proposed as an alternative approach to address these issues. Examples are presented in both cases to illustrate these advantages, comparing various methods of analyzing proportions including untransformed, arcsine- and logit-transformed linear models and logistic regression (with or without random effects). Simulations demonstrate that logistic regression usually provides a gain in power over other methods.
Predicting juvenile recidivism: new method, old problems.

PubMed

Benda, B B

1987-01-01

This prediction study compared three statistical procedures for accuracy using two assessment methods. The criterion is return to a juvenile prison after the first release, and the models tested are logit analysis, predictive attribute analysis, and a Burgess procedure. No significant differences are found between statistics in prediction.

Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The model is designed in a way that each cycle is described by the same three parameters as conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and every two cycles are connected with a transition width. Transition width indicates the shift from one cycle to the next and is described as weighted coaddition of neighboring two cycles. It is determined by three parameters: transition year, transition width, and gamma parameter for weighting. The cycle-jumping method provides superior model compared to the conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and reflects historical production behavior more reasonably and practically, by better modeling of the effects of technological transitions and socioeconomic factors that affect historical resource production behavior by explicitly considering the form of the transitions between production cycles.
Palliative radiotherapy practice within Western European countries: impact of the radiotherapy financing system?

PubMed

Lievens, Y; Van den Bogaert, W; Rijnders, A; Kutcher, G; Kesteloot, K

2000-09-01

To analyze the reimbursement modalities for radiotherapy in the different Western European countries, as well as to investigate if these differences have an impact on the palliative radiotherapy practice for bone metastases. A questionnaire was sent to 565 radiotherapy centres included in the 1997 ESTRO directory. In this questionnaire the reimbursement strategy applied in the different centres was assessed, with respect to the use of a budget (departmental or hospital budget), case payment and/or fee-for-service reimbursement. The differences were analyzed according to country and to type and size of the radiotherapy centre. A total of 170 centres (86% of the responders) returned the questionnaire. Most frequent is budget reimbursement: some form of budget reimbursement is found in 69% of the centres, whereas 46% of the centres are partly reimbursed through fee-for-service and 35% through case payment. The larger the department, the more frequent the reimbursement through a budget or a case payment system and the less the importance of fee-for-service reimbursement (chi(2): P=0.0012; logit: P=0.0055). Whereas private centres are almost equally reimbursed by fee-for-service financing as by budget or case payment, radiotherapy departments in university hospitals receive the largest part of their financial resources through a budget or by case payment (83%) (chi(2): P=0.002; logit: P=0.0073). A correlation between the country and the radiotherapy reimbursement system was also demonstrated (P=0.002), radiotherapy centres in Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom being almost entirely reimbursed through a budget and/or case payment and centres in Germany and Switzerland mostly through a fee-for-service system. In budget and case payment financing lower total number of fractions and lower total dose (chi(2): P=0.003; logit: P=0.0120) as well as less shielding blocks (chi(2): P=0.003; logit: P=0.0066) are used. A same tendency is found for the use of isodose calculations and field set-up, but without being statistically significant (P=0.264 and P=0.061 res.). The type of the centre and the reimbursement modality influence the fractionation regimen independently (P=0.0274). This is not the case for the centre size and the reimbursement, which were found to exert correlated effects on the fractionation schedule (P=0.1042). Reimbursement systems seem to influence radiotherapy practice. One should therefore aim to develop reimbursement criteria that pursue to deliver, not only the best qualitative, but also the most cost-effective treatments to the patients.
A simplified conjoint recognition paradigm for the measurement of gist and verbatim memory.

PubMed

Stahl, Christoph; Klauer, Karl Christoph

2008-05-01

The distinction between verbatim and gist memory traces has furthered the understanding of numerous phenomena in various fields, such as false memory research, research on reasoning and decision making, and cognitive development. To measure verbatim and gist memory empirically, an experimental paradigm and multinomial measurement model has been proposed but rarely applied. In the present article, a simplified conjoint recognition paradigm and multinomial model is introduced and validated as a measurement tool for the separate assessment of verbatim and gist memory processes. A Bayesian metacognitive framework is applied to validate guessing processes. Extensions of the model toward incorporating the processes of phantom recollection and erroneous recollection rejection are discussed.
A Note on the Heterogeneous Choice Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rohwer, Goetz

2015-01-01

The heterogeneous choice model (HCM) has been proposed as an extension of the standard logit and probit models, which allows taking into account different error variances of explanatory variables. In this note, I show that in an important special case, this model is just another way to specify an interaction effect.
Entrepreneurship and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santana Vega, Lidia E.; González-Morales, Olga; Feliciano García, Luis

2016-01-01

This work studied the entrepreneurial aspirations of 3,987 adolescents regarding self-employment and the influence of gender, age, nationality, type of school, location of the school, educational level and performance. The Logit model is used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the pupils' aspirations to be self-employed increase in the…
Freight Demand Characteristics and Mode Choice: An Analysis of the Results of Modeling with Disaggregate Revealed Preference Data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

This paper analyzes the freight demand characteristics that drive modal choice by means of a large scale, national, disaggregate revealed preference database for shippers in France in 1988, using a nested logit. Particular attention is given to priva...
Monitoring Antitobacco Sentiment among Community Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bechtel, Gordon G.; Lyons-Lepke, Elaine M.

2003-01-01

Two public health objectives, one methodological and the other substantive, are realized in the present study. First, average survey ratings are replaced by negated mean cumulative logits (MCLs), which have the advantage of interitem commensuration. Second, these negated MCLs improve the analysis of two Florida tobacco control surveys of community…
Modelling Student Misconceptions Using Nested Logit Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Mustafa

2017-01-01

Student misconceptions have been studied for decades from a curricular/instructional perspective and from the assessment/test level perspective. Numerous misconception assessment tools have been developed in order to measure students' misconceptions relative to the correct content. Often, these tools are used to make a variety of educational…
The Impact of Nontraditional Training on the Occupational Attainment of Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Streker-Seeborg, Irmtraud; And Others

1984-01-01

Using a logit model of occupational attainment, researchers found that economically disadvantaged women who received nontraditional training were much less likely to be employed in male-dominated occupations and received lower hourly wages. Direct labor market discrimination seems to be responsible for the inhibited occupational attainment of…
Using Neural Networks to Predict MBA Student Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naik, Bijayananda; Ragothaman, Srinivasan

2004-01-01

Predicting MBA student performance for admission decisions is crucial for educational institutions. This paper evaluates the ability of three different models--neural networks, logit, and probit to predict MBA student performance in graduate programs. The neural network technique was used to classify applicants into successful and marginal student…
Predicting Faculty Membership--Application of Student Choice Logit Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kopanidis, Foula Zografina; Shaw, Michael John

2017-01-01

Purpose: Educational institutions are caught between increasing their offer rates and attracting and retaining those prospective students who are most suited to course completion. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the influence of demographic and psychological constructs on students' preferences when choosing to study in a particular…
A Multimonial Logit Analysis of Teenage Fertility and High School Completion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ribar, David C.

1993-01-01

Uses data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine economic, institutional, and sociological antecedents of high school completion and adolescent fertility. Welfare generosity appears to have a significant positive effect on adolescent childbearing. Other important determinants of teenage parenthood and educational attainment…
Academic Achievement of Girls in Rural Schools in Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mungai, A. M.

2012-01-01

This study examined the effect of two family factors (financial, social capital) and school factors on students' achievement. One hundred eighty two, seventh-grade female students from nine schools in Muranga district, Kenya, were studied. The statistical procedures included logit regression, cross-tabulations, frequency counting and chi-square…
Extreme Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression: A Fast and Robust Framework for Hyperspectral Image Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Faxian; Yang, Zhijing; Ren, Jinchang; Ling, Wing-Kuen; Zhao, Huimin; Marshall, Stephen

2017-12-01

Although the sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) has provided a useful tool for sparse classification, it suffers from inefficacy in dealing with high dimensional features and manually set initial regressor values. This has significantly constrained its applications for hyperspectral image (HSI) classification. In order to tackle these two drawbacks, an extreme sparse multinomial logistic regression (ESMLR) is proposed for effective classification of HSI. First, the HSI dataset is projected to a new feature space with randomly generated weight and bias. Second, an optimization model is established by the Lagrange multiplier method and the dual principle to automatically determine a good initial regressor for SMLR via minimizing the training error and the regressor value. Furthermore, the extended multi-attribute profiles (EMAPs) are utilized for extracting both the spectral and spatial features. A combinational linear multiple features learning (MFL) method is proposed to further enhance the features extracted by ESMLR and EMAPs. Finally, the logistic regression via the variable splitting and the augmented Lagrangian (LORSAL) is adopted in the proposed framework for reducing the computational time. Experiments are conducted on two well-known HSI datasets, namely the Indian Pines dataset and the Pavia University dataset, which have shown the fast and robust performance of the proposed ESMLR framework.
Uncovering a latent multinomial: Analysis of mark-recapture data with misidentification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

2010-01-01

Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f = A???x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector ?? = ??(??). Given that full conditional distributions [?? | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, ??], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A???. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks. ?? 2009, The International Biometric Society.
Uncovering a Latent Multinomial: Analysis of Mark-Recapture Data with Misidentification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

2009-01-01

Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f=A'x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector pi= pi(theta). Given that full conditional distributions [theta | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, theta], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A'. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks.
Evaluating risk factors for endemic human Salmonella Enteritidis infections with different phage types in Ontario, Canada using multinomial logistic regression and a case-case study approach

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Identifying risk factors for Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) infections in Ontario will assist public health authorities to design effective control and prevention programs to reduce the burden of SE infections. Our research objective was to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various phage types (PT) in Ontario, Canada. We hypothesized that certain PTs (e.g., PT8 and PT13a) have specific risk factors for infection. Methods Our study included endemic SE cases with various PTs whose isolates were submitted to the Public Health Laboratory-Toronto from January 20th to August 12th, 2011. Cases were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire that included questions pertaining to demographics, travel history, clinical symptoms, contact with animals, and food exposures. A multinomial logistic regression method using the Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model procedure and a case-case study design were used to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various PTs in Ontario, Canada. In the multinomial logistic regression model, the outcome variable had three categories representing human infections caused by SE PT8, PT13a, and all other SE PTs (i.e., non-PT8/non-PT13a) as a referent category to which the other two categories were compared. Results In the multivariable model, SE PT8 was positively associated with contact with dogs (OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.01-4.68) and negatively associated with pepper consumption (OR=0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94), after adjusting for age categories and gender, and using exposure periods and health regions as random effects to account for clustering. Conclusions Our study findings offer interesting hypotheses about the role of phage type-specific risk factors. Multinomial logistic regression analysis and the case-case study approach are novel methodologies to evaluate associations among SE infections with different PTs and various risk factors. PMID:23057531
Comparing the efficiency of digital and conventional soil mapping to predict soil types in a semi-arid region in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeraatpisheh, Mojtaba; Ayoubi, Shamsollah; Jafari, Azam; Finke, Peter

2017-05-01

The efficiency of different digital and conventional soil mapping approaches to produce categorical maps of soil types is determined by cost, sample size, accuracy and the selected taxonomic level. The efficiency of digital and conventional soil mapping approaches was examined in the semi-arid region of Borujen, central Iran. This research aimed to (i) compare two digital soil mapping approaches including Multinomial logistic regression and random forest, with the conventional soil mapping approach at four soil taxonomic levels (order, suborder, great group and subgroup levels), (ii) validate the predicted soil maps by the same validation data set to determine the best method for producing the soil maps, and (iii) select the best soil taxonomic level by different approaches at three sample sizes (100, 80, and 60 point observations), in two scenarios with and without a geomorphology map as a spatial covariate. In most predicted maps, using both digital soil mapping approaches, the best results were obtained using the combination of terrain attributes and the geomorphology map, although differences between the scenarios with and without the geomorphology map were not significant. Employing the geomorphology map increased map purity and the Kappa index, and led to a decrease in the 'noisiness' of soil maps. Multinomial logistic regression had better performance at higher taxonomic levels (order and suborder levels); however, random forest showed better performance at lower taxonomic levels (great group and subgroup levels). Multinomial logistic regression was less sensitive than random forest to a decrease in the number of training observations. The conventional soil mapping method produced a map with larger minimum polygon size because of traditional cartographic criteria used to make the geological map 1:100,000 (on which the conventional soil mapping map was largely based). Likewise, conventional soil mapping map had also a larger average polygon size that resulted in a lower level of detail. Multinomial logistic regression at the order level (map purity of 0.80), random forest at the suborder (map purity of 0.72) and great group level (map purity of 0.60), and conventional soil mapping at the subgroup level (map purity of 0.48) produced the most accurate maps in the study area. The multinomial logistic regression method was identified as the most effective approach based on a combined index of map purity, map information content, and map production cost. The combined index also showed that smaller sample size led to a preference for the order level, while a larger sample size led to a preference for the great group level.
Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

PubMed

Hosoya, Haruo

2012-08-01

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.
Disentangling stereotype activation and stereotype application in the stereotype misperception task.

PubMed

Krieglmeyer, Regina; Sherman, Jeffrey W

2012-08-01

When forming impressions about other people, stereotypes about the individual's social group often influence the resulting impression. At least 2 distinguishable processes underlie stereotypic impression formation: stereotype activation and stereotype application. Most previous research has used implicit measures to assess stereotype activation and explicit measures to assess stereotype application, which has several disadvantages. The authors propose a measure of stereotypic impression formation, the stereotype misperception task (SMT), together with a multinomial model that quantitatively disentangles the contributions of stereotype activation and application to responses in the SMT. The validity of the SMT and of the multinomial model was confirmed in 5 studies. The authors hope to advance research on stereotyping by providing a measurement tool that separates multiple processes underlying impression formation.

A Bayesian Approach for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables Using Logit and Probit Links

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Cai, Jing-Heng

2010-01-01

Analysis of ordered binary and unordered binary data has received considerable attention in social and psychological research. This article introduces a Bayesian approach, which has several nice features in practical applications, for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with dichotomous data. We demonstrate how to use the software…
Determinants of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Risk Perceptions in Youth Populations: A Multivariate Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denham, Bryan E.

2009-01-01

Grounded conceptually in social cognitive theory, this research examines how personal, behavioral, and environmental factors are associated with risk perceptions of anabolic-androgenic steroids. Ordinal logistic regression and logit log-linear models applied to data gathered from high-school seniors (N = 2,160) in the 2005 Monitoring the Future…
Forest amenities and location choice in the Southwest

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Jennifer A. Thacher; Daniel R. McCollum; Robert P. Berrens

2008-01-01

Locations with natural characteristics, such as forests, are thought to be attractive residential locations. This proposition is tested in the Southwest United States, composed of Arizona and New Mexico. This paper presents a conditional logit model of location choice estimated with household observations from the U.S. Census, geographic information system (GIS) data,...
Self-Reported Frequency and Perceived Severity of Being Bullied among Elementary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Li-Ming

2015-01-01

Background: This study reports students' perspectives on the frequency and perceived severity of being bullied. Methods: A sample of 1816 elementary school students completed self-report surveys of perceived severity and frequency of being bullied. A Rasch technique aligned different victimized behaviors on interval logit scales. A 4-fold schema…
Comparison of IRT Likelihood Ratio Test and Logistic Regression DIF Detection Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atar, Burcu; Kamata, Akihito

2011-01-01

The Type I error rates and the power of IRT likelihood ratio test and cumulative logit ordinal logistic regression procedures in detecting differential item functioning (DIF) for polytomously scored items were investigated in this Monte Carlo simulation study. For this purpose, 54 simulation conditions (combinations of 3 sample sizes, 2 sample…
The Postsecondary Resource Trinity Model: Exploring the Interaction between Socioeconomic, Academic, and Institutional Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giani, Matt S.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to revisit the widely held assumption that the impact of socioeconomic background declines steadily across educational transitions, particularly at the postsecondary level. Sequential logit modeling, a staple methodological approach for estimating the relative impact of SES across educational stages, is applied to a…
Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment--Employment Outcomes: A Multinominal Logit Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Marcus, Alan J.

1982-01-01

This paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers' education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes, with the legislation inducing children from low-income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher-income families to increase their educational attainment. (Author)
Does race matter in landowners' participation in conservation incentive programs?

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Okwuldili O. Onianwa; John Schelhas; Gerald C. Wheelock; Mark R. Dubois

2005-01-01

This study investigated and compared the participation behavior of white and minority small landowners in Alabama in eight conservation incentive programs. Using nonparametric tests and logit modeling, we found both similarities and differences in participation behavior between these two landowner groups. Both white and minority landowners tended not to participate in...
The Sex Difference in Depression across 29 Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopcroft, Rosemary L.; Bradley, Dana Burr

2007-01-01

The sex difference in depression is well documented in westernized, developed societies, although there has been little quantitative cross-cultural research on the topic. In this study, we use multilevel logit models to examine sex differences in depression across 29 countries using data from the World Values Survey. We find that in no country are…
Optional contributions have positive effects for volunteering public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qi-Qing; Li, Zhen-Peng; Fu, Chang-He; Wang, Lai-Sheng

2011-11-01

Public goods (PG) games with the volunteering mechanism are referred to as volunteering public goods (VPG) games, in which loners are introduced to the PG games, and a loner obtains a constant payoff but not participating the game. Considering that small contributions may have positive effects to encourage more players with bounded rationality to contribute, this paper introduces optional contributions (high value or low value) to these typical VPG games-a cooperator can contribute a high or low payoff to the public pools. With the low contribution, the logit dynamics show that cooperation can be promoted in a well mixed population comparing to the typical VPG games, furthermore, as the multiplication factor is greater than a threshold, the average payoff of the population is also enhanced. In spatial VPG games, we introduce a new adjusting mechanism that is an approximation to best response. Some results in agreement with the prediction of the logit dynamics are found. These simulation results reveal that for VPG games the option of low contributions may be a better method to stimulate the growth of cooperation frequency and the average payoff of the population.
Syndromic surveillance models using Web data: the case of scarlet fever in the UK.

PubMed

Samaras, Loukas; García-Barriocanal, Elena; Sicilia, Miguel-Angel

2012-03-01

Recent research has shown the potential of Web queries as a source for syndromic surveillance, and existing studies show that these queries can be used as a basis for estimation and prediction of the development of a syndromic disease, such as influenza, using log linear (logit) statistical models. Two alternative models are applied to the relationship between cases and Web queries in this paper. We examine the applicability of using statistical methods to relate search engine queries with scarlet fever cases in the UK, taking advantage of tools to acquire the appropriate data from Google, and using an alternative statistical method based on gamma distributions. The results show that using logit models, the Pearson correlation factor between Web queries and the data obtained from the official agencies must be over 0.90, otherwise the prediction of the peak and the spread of the distributions gives significant deviations. In this paper, we describe the gamma distribution model and show that we can obtain better results in all cases using gamma transformations, and especially in those with a smaller correlation factor.
A Multilevel Logit Estimation on the Determinants of Utilization of Preventive Health Care and Healthy Lifestyle Practice in China

PubMed Central

Fan, Lida; Liu, Jianye; Habibov, Nazim N

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide policy implications by estimating the individual and community level determinants of preventive health-care utilization in China based upon data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Two different frameworks, a human capital model and a psychological-behavioral model, are tested using a multilevel logit estimation. The results demonstrate different patterns for medical and nonmedical preventive activities. There is a strong correlation between having medical insurance and utilizing preventive health services. For the usage of medical-related preventive health care (MP), age, gender, education, urban residence, and medical insurance are strong predictors. High income did not provide much of an increase in the usage level of MP, but the lack of income was a huge obstacle for low-income people to overcome. Community variation in number of facilities accounted for about one third of the total variation in the utilization of MP. The utilization of MP in China remains dependent upon the individual's social-economic conditions. PMID:26688776
Preference elicitation approach for measuring the willingness to pay for liver cancer treatment in Korea.

PubMed

Cho, Donghun; Jo, Changik

2015-09-01

The Korean government has expanded the coverage of the national insurance scheme for four major diseases: cancers, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and rare diseases. This policy may have a detrimental effect on the budget of the national health insurance agency. Like taxes, national insurance premiums are levied on the basis of the income or wealth of the insured. Using a preference elicitation method, we attempted to estimate how much people are willing to pay for insurance premiums that would expand their coverage for liver cancer treatment. We calculated the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) through the marginal rate of substitution between the two attributes of the insurance premium and the total annual treatment cost by adopting conditional logit and mixed logit models. The effects of various other terms that could interact with socioeconomic status were also estimated, such as gender, income level, educational attainment, age, employment status, and marital status. The estimated MWTP values of the monthly insurance premium for liver cancer treatment range from 4,130 KRW to 9,090 KRW.
Low Vision Rehabilitation for Adult African Americans in Two Settings.

PubMed

Draper, Erin M; Feng, Rui; Appel, Sarah D; Graboyes, Marcy; Engle, Erin; Ciner, Elise B; Ellenberg, Jonas H; Stambolian, Dwight

2016-07-01

The Vision Rehabilitation for African Americans with Central Vision Impairment (VISRAC) study is a demonstration project evaluating how modifications in vision rehabilitation can improve the use of functional vision. Fifty-five African Americans 40 years of age and older with central vision impairment were randomly assigned to receive either clinic-based (CB) or home-based (HB) low vision rehabilitation services. Forty-eight subjects completed the study. The primary outcome was the change in functional vision in activities of daily living, as assessed with the Veteran's Administration Low-Vision Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ-48). This included scores for overall visual ability and visual ability domains (reading, mobility, visual information processing, and visual motor skills). Each score was normalized into logit estimates by Rasch analysis. Linear regression models were used to compare the difference in the total score and each domain score between the two intervention groups. The significance level for each comparison was set at 0.05. Both CB and HB groups showed significant improvement in overall visual ability at the final visit compared with baseline. The CB group showed greater improvement than the HB group (mean of 1.28 vs. 0.87 logits change), though the group difference is not significant (p = 0.057). The CB group visual motor skills score showed significant improvement over the HB group score (mean of 3.30 vs. 1.34 logits change, p = 0.044). The differences in improvement of the reading and visual information processing scores were not significant (p = 0.054 and p = 0.509) between groups. Neither group had significant improvement in the mobility score, which was not part of the rehabilitation program. Vision rehabilitation is effective for this study population regardless of location. Possible reasons why the CB group performed better than the HB group include a number of psychosocial factors as well as the more standardized distraction-free work environment within the clinic setting.
Reading Ability and Reading Engagement in Older Adults With Glaucoma

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Angeline M.; van Landingham, Suzanne W.; Massof, Robert W.; Rubin, Gary S.; Ramulu, Pradeep Y.

2014-01-01

Purpose. We evaluated the impact of glaucoma-related vision loss on reading ability and reading engagement in 10 reading activities. Methods. A total of 63 glaucoma patients and 59 glaucoma suspect controls self-rated their level of reading difficulty for 10 reading items, and responses were analyzed using Rasch analysis to determine reading ability. Reading engagement was assessed by asking subjects to report the number of days per week they engaged in each reading activity. Reading restriction was determined as a decrement in engagement. Results. Glaucoma subjects more often described greater reading difficulty than controls for all tasks except puzzles (P < 0.05). The most difficult reading tasks involved puzzles, books, and finances, while the least difficult reading tasks involved notes, bills, and mail. In multivariable weighted least squares regression models of Rasch-estimated person measures of reading ability, less reading ability was found for glaucoma patients compared to controls (β = −1.60 logits, P < 0.001). Among glaucoma patients, less reading ability was associated with more severe visual field (VF) loss (β = −0.68 logits per 5-dB decrement in better-eye VF mean deviation [MD], P < 0.001) and contrast sensitivity (β = −0.76 logits per 0.1-unit lower log CS, P < 0.001). Each 5-dB decrement in the better-eye VF MD was associated with book reading on 18% fewer days (P = 0.003) and newspaper reading on 10% fewer days (P = 0.008). No statistically significant reading restriction was observed for other reading activities (P > 0.05). Conclusions. Glaucoma patients have less reading ability and engage less in a variety of different reading activities, particularly those requiring sustained reading. Future work should evaluate the mechanisms underlying reading disability in glaucoma to determine how patients can maintain reading ability and engagement. PMID:25052992
Box-Cox Mixed Logit Model for Travel Behavior Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orro, Alfonso; Novales, Margarita; Benitez, Francisco G.

2010-09-01

To represent the behavior of travelers when they are deciding how they are going to get to their destination, discrete choice models, based on the random utility theory, have become one of the most widely used tools. The field in which these models were developed was halfway between econometrics and transport engineering, although the latter now constitutes one of their principal areas of application. In the transport field, they have mainly been applied to mode choice, but also to the selection of destination, route, and other important decisions such as the vehicle ownership. In usual practice, the most frequently employed discrete choice models implement a fixed coefficient utility function that is linear in the parameters. The principal aim of this paper is to present the viability of specifying utility functions with random coefficients that are nonlinear in the parameters, in applications of discrete choice models to transport. Nonlinear specifications in the parameters were present in discrete choice theory at its outset, although they have seldom been used in practice until recently. The specification of random coefficients, however, began with the probit and the hedonic models in the 1970s, and, after a period of apparent little practical interest, has burgeoned into a field of intense activity in recent years with the new generation of mixed logit models. In this communication, we present a Box-Cox mixed logit model, original of the authors. It includes the estimation of the Box-Cox exponents in addition to the parameters of the random coefficients distribution. Probability of choose an alternative is an integral that will be calculated by simulation. The estimation of the model is carried out by maximizing the simulated log-likelihood of a sample of observed individual choices between alternatives. The differences between the predictions yielded by models that are inconsistent with real behavior have been studied with simulation experiments.
Investigation of hit-and-run crash occurrence and severity using real-time loop detector data and hierarchical Bayesian binary logit model with random effects.

PubMed

Xie, Meiquan; Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhou, Jiao; Jia, Xudong; Choi, Simon

2018-02-17

Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR. This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model. Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime. This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes.
Prospective memory after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury: a multinomial modeling approach.

PubMed

Pavawalla, Shital P; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen; Smith, Rebekah E

2012-01-01

Prospective memory (PM), which can be understood as the processes involved in realizing a delayed intention, is consistently found to be impaired after a traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although PM can be empirically dissociated from retrospective memory, it inherently involves both a prospective component (i.e., remembering that an action needs to be carried out) and retrospective components (i.e., remembering what action needs to be executed and when). This study utilized a multinomial processing tree model to disentangle the prospective (that) and retrospective recognition (when) components underlying PM after moderate-to-severe TBI. Seventeen participants with moderate to severe TBI and 17 age- and education-matched control participants completed an event-based PM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. The multinomial processing tree modeling approach revealed a significant group difference in the prospective component, indicating that the control participants allocated greater preparatory attentional resources to the PM task compared to the TBI participants. Participants in the TBI group were also found to be significantly more impaired than controls in the when aspect of the retrospective component. These findings indicated that the TBI participants had greater difficulty allocating the necessary preparatory attentional resources to the PM task and greater difficulty discriminating between PM targets and nontargets during task execution, despite demonstrating intact posttest recall and/or recognition of the PM tasks and targets.
Landscape effects on diets of two canids in Northwestern Texas: A multinomial modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lemons, P.R.; Sedinger, J.S.; Herzog, M.P.; Gipson, P.S.; Gilliland, R.L.

2010-01-01

Analyses of feces, stomach contents, and regurgitated pellets are common techniques for assessing diets of vertebrates and typically contain more than 1 food item per sampling unit. When analyzed, these individual food items have traditionally been treated as independent, which represents pseudoreplication. When food types are recorded as present or absent, these samples can be treated as multinomial vectors of food items, with each vector representing 1 realization of a possible diet. We suggest such data have a similar structure to capture histories for closed-capture, capturemarkrecapture data. To assess the effects of landscapes and presence of a potential competitor, we used closed-capture models implemented in program MARK into analyze diet data generated from feces of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) and coyotes (Canis latrans) in northwestern Texas. The best models of diet contained season and location for both swift foxes and coyotes, but year accounted for less variation, suggesting that landscape type is an important predictor of diets of both species. Models containing the effect of coyote reduction were not competitive (??QAICc 53.6685), consistent with the hypothesis that presence of coyotes did not influence diet of swift foxes. Our findings suggest that landscape type may have important influences on diets of both species. We believe that multinomial models represent an effective approach to assess hypotheses when diet studies have a data structure similar to ours. ?? 2010 American Society of Mammalogists.
Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

PubMed

Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

2017-08-17

To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

Alternative classification and screening protocol for transitional lumbosacral vertebra in German shepherd dogs

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Lumbosacral transitional vertebra (LTV) is a common congenital and hereditary anomaly in many dog breeds. It predisposes to premature degeneration of the lumbosacral junction, and is a frequent cause of cauda equina syndrome, especially in German shepherd dogs. Ventrodorsal hip radiographs are most often used in diagnosis of LTV in screening programs. In this study, value of laterolateral lumbar spine radiographs as additions to ventrodorsal radiographs in diagnosis of LTV, and characteristics of LTV and the eighth lumbar vertebra (L8) in laterolateral radiographs were studied. Additionally, computed tomography (CT) features of different types of LTV were elucidated. Methods The ventrodorsal pelvic and laterolateral lumbar spine radiographs of 228 German shepherd dogs were evaluated for existence and type of LTV. Morphology of transverse processes was used in classification of LTV in ventrodorsal radiographs. The relative length of sixth (L6) and seventh (L7) vertebrae (L6/L7) was used in characterization of these vertebrae in laterolateral radiographs. CT studies were available for 16 dogs, and they were used for more detailed characterization of different types of LTV. Non-parametric χ2 statistics, generalized logit model for multinomial data, and one-way analysis of variance was used for statistical analyses. Results In all, 92 (40%) dogs had a LTV, the most common type being separation of first spinous process from the median crest of the sacrum in 62 dogs (67% of LTV). Eight dogs had eight lumbar vertebrae. Those dogs with LTV had longer L7 in relation to L6 than dogs with normal lumbosacral junctions. When L6/L7 decreased by 0.1 units, the proportion of dogs belonging to the group with L8 was 14-fold higher than in the group with normal lumbosacral junctions. L8 resembled first sacral vertebra (S1) in length and position and was therefore classified as one type of LTV. With CT it was shown that categorizing LTV, based on shape and visibility of transverse processes seen in ventrodorsal radiographs, could be misleading. Conclusions We suggest that L8 be included as a part of the LTV complex, and the laterolateral radiographs of the lumbar spine be considered as an addition to ventrodorsal projections in the screening protocols for LTV. PMID:22549019
Socio-economic Aspects of Health-Related Behaviors and Their Dynamics: A Case Study for the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Rezayatmand, Reza; Pavlova, Milena; Groot, Wim

2016-01-01

Background: Previous studies have mostly focused on socio-demographic and health-related determinants of health-related behaviors. Although comprehensive health insurance coverage could discourage individual lifestyle improvement due to the ex-ante moral hazard problem, few studies have examined such effects. This study examines the association of a comprehensive set of factors including socio-demographic, health status, health insurance, and perceived change in health insurance coverage with health-related behaviors and their dynamics (ie, changes in behavior). Methods: Using Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data (a European aging survey among 50+ years old) for the Netherlands in 2004 and 2007 (sample size: 1745), binary and multinomial logit models are employed to study health-related behaviors (daily smoking, excessive alcohol use, and physical inactivity in 2004) and their corresponding changes (stopping or starting unhealthy behavior between 2004 and 2007). Results: Our findings show that being older, being female, having higher education and living with a partner increase the likelihood not to be a daily smoker or to stop daily smoking. At the same time, being older (OR = 3.02 [1.31, 6.95]) and being female (OR = 1.77 [1.05, 2.96]) increases the likelihood to be or to become physically inactive. We also find that worse perceived health insurance coverage in 2007 is associated with a lower likelihood (OR = 0.19 [0.06, 0.57]) of stopping excessive alcohol use in that year. However, we do not find a strong association between the type of health insurance and health behavior. Conclusion: Our findings show that all above mentioned factors (ie, socio-demographic and health status factors) are associated with health-related behavior but not in a consistent way across all behaviors. Moreover, the dynamics of each behavior (positive or negative change) is not necessarily determined by the same factors that determine the state of that behavior. We also find that better perceived health insurance coverage is associated with a healthier lifestyle which is not compatible with an ex-ante moral hazard interpretation. Our results provide input to target policies towards elderly individuals in need of lifestyle change. However, further research should be done to identify the causal effect of health insurance on health-related behavior. PMID:27239865
Elderly road collision injury outcomes associated with seat positions and seatbelt use in a rapidly aging society-A case study in South Korea.

PubMed

Noh, Yuna; Yoon, Yoonjin

2017-01-01

Aging has long been regarded as one of the most critical factors affecting crash injury outcomes. In South Korea, where the elderly population is projected to reach 35.9% by 2050, the implications of an increasing number of elderly vehicle users on road safety are evident. In this research, the confounding effect of occupant age in a vehicle in terms of seat position and seatbelt use was investigated. In addition, elderly occupants were divided into a younger-old group aged between 65 and 74 years and an older-old group aged 75 years and older in an effort to assess whether the conventional elderly age standard of 65 years should be reconsidered. A multinomial logit framework was adopted to predict two-level injury severity using collision data between 2008 and 2015. Predictor variables included gender, age group, seat position, seatbelt, road type, road slope, road surface, road line, and type of vehicle. Five models, a base model with no interactions and four interaction models which were combinations of age group, seatbelt use and seat position, were devised and evaluated. With no interacting term, age was the most prominent predictor. Elderly occupants were most likely to suffer from severe injury without a seatbelt in all seat positions, and the use of a seatbelt reduced this likelihood the most in the elderly group as well. Front passenger seats had the highest risk to elderly occupants, while the driver seat was statistically insignificant. When the elderly group was divided into the younger-old group and the older-old group, the older-olds were found to be much more vulnerable compared to the younger-olds. In particular, older drivers were five times more likely to suffer a severe injury without a seatbelt. The degree of injury severity of elderly occupants was reduced the most with the use of a seatbelt, demonstrating the importance of using seat restraints. The sharp increase in the risk of injury of the older-old group suggests that the age standard of 65 years as the elderly group with regard to traffic safety may require reconsideration due to the growing number of elderly vehicle users on the road. Our results provide practical evidence with which to formulate new safety policies, including mandatory seatbelt use, driving age limits and insurance pricing.
Health literacy and the determinants of obesity: a population-based survey of sixth grade school children in Taiwan.

PubMed

Shih, Shu-Fang; Liu, Chieh-Hsing; Liao, Li-Ling; Osborne, Richard H

2016-03-22

Health literacy has become an important health policy and health promotion agenda item in recent years. It had been seen as a means to reduce health disparities and a critical empowerment strategy to increase people's control over their health. So far, most of health literacy studies mainly focus on adults with few studies investigating associations between child health literacy and health status. This study aimed to investigate the association between health literacy and body weight in Taiwan's sixth grade school children. Using a population-based survey, 162,209 sixth grade (11-12 years old) school children were assessed. The response rate at school level was 83%, with 70% of all students completing the survey. The Taiwan child health literacy assessment tool was applied and information on sex, ethnicity, self-reported health, and health behaviors were also collected. BMI was used to classify the children as underweight, normal, overweight, or obese. A multinomial logit model with robust estimation was used to explore associations between health literacy and the body weight with an adjustment for covariates. The sample consisted of 48.9% girls, 3.8% were indigenous and the mean BMI was 19.55 (SD = 3.93). About 6% of children self-reported bad or very bad health. The mean child health literacy score was 24.03 (SD = 6.12, scale range from 0 to 32). The overall proportion of obese children was 15.2%. Children in the highest health literacy quartile were less likely to be obese (12.4%) compared with the lowest quartile (17.4%). After controlling for gender, ethnicity, self-rated health, and health behaviors, children with higher health literacy were less likely to be obese (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR) = 0.94, p < 0.001) and underweight (RRR = 0.83, p < 0.001). Those who did not have regular physical activity, or had sugar-sweetened beverage intake (RRR > 1.10, p < 0.0001) were more likely to report being overweight or obese. This study demonstrates strong links between health literacy and obesity, even after adjusting for key potential confounders, and provides new insights into potential intervention points in school education for obesity prevention. Systematic approaches to integrating a health literacy curriculum into schools may mitigate the growing burden of disease due to obesity.
Survival and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes among Periviable Infants

PubMed Central

Younge, Noelle; Goldstein, Ricki F.; Bann, Carla M.; Hintz, Susan R.; Patel, Ravi M.; Smith, P. Brian; Bell, Edward F.; Rysavy, Matthew A.; Duncan, Andrea F.; Vohr, Betty R.; Das, Abhik; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Cotten, C. Michael

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Data reported during the past 5 years indicate that rates of survival have increased among infants born at the borderline of viability, but less is known about how increased rates of survival among these infants relate to early childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes. METHODS We compared survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes among infants born at 22 to 24 weeks of gestation, as assessed at 18 to 22 months of corrected age, across three consecutive birth-year epochs (2000–2003 [epoch 1], 2004–2007 [epoch 2], and 2008–2011 [epoch 3]). The infants were born at 11 centers that participated in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. The primary outcome measure was a three-level outcome — survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, or death. After accounting for differences in infant characteristics, including birth center, we used multinomial generalized logit models to compare the relative risk of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment, survival with neurodevelopmental impairment, and death. RESULTS Data on the primary outcome were available for 4274 of 4458 infants (96%) born at the 11 centers. The percentage of infants who survived increased from 30% (424 of 1391 infants) in epoch 1 to 36% (487 of 1348 infants) in epoch 3 (P<0.001). The percentage of infants who survived without neurodevelopmental impairment increased from 16% (217 of 1391) in epoch 1 to 20% (276 of 1348) in epoch 3 (P = 0.001), whereas the percentage of infants who survived with neurodevelopmental impairment did not change significantly (15% [207 of 1391] in epoch 1 and 16% [211 of 1348] in epoch 3, P = 0.29). After adjustment for changes in the baseline characteristics of the infants over time, both the rate of survival with neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) and the rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment (as compared with death) increased over time (adjusted relative risks, 1.27 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.01 to 1.59] and 1.59 [95% CI, 1.28 to 1.99], respectively). CONCLUSIONS The rate of survival without neurodevelopmental impairment increased between 2000 and 2011 in this large cohort of periviable infants. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 and NCT00009633.) PMID:28199816
Do patients prefer mesh or anterior colporrhaphy for primary correction of anterior vaginal wall prolapse: a labelled discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Notten, K J B; Essers, B A; Weemhoff, M; Rutten, A G H; Donners, J J A E; van Gestel, I; Kruitwagen, R F P M; Roovers, J P W R; Dirksen, C D

2015-05-01

We investigated patients' preferences for anterior colporrhaphy or mesh surgery as surgical correction of anterior vaginal wall prolapse. Labelled discrete choice experiment. Three Dutch teaching hospitals. Women with anterior vaginal wall prolapse Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification stage 2 or more, indicated for anterior colporrhaphy (n = 100). Discrete choice experiments are an attribute-based survey method for measuring preferences. In this experiment, women were asked to choose between two treatment scenarios, mesh surgery or anterior colporrhaphy. These surgical treatments differed in four treatment attributes: (i) recurrence rate, (ii) exposure rate, (iii) infection rate, (iv) dyspareunia. Data were analysed using a multinomial logit model. Women's preferences for anterior colporrhaphy or mesh surgery for the repair of vaginal wall prolapse. All treatment attributes, i.e. recurrence, exposure, infection and dyspareunia, proved to be significant in the woman's decision to choose mesh surgery (P < 0.001), while only two attributes out of three, recurrence and infection, were significant for anterior colporrhaphy (P < 0.001). The relative importance data showed that with regards to the four statistically significant attributes for mesh, dyspareunia was the most important attribute, and of the two significant attributes for anterior colporrhaphy, the risk of infection. Based on the attributes and levels in our discrete choice experiment, anterior colporrhaphy was preferred in 74% as a primary correction of anterior vaginal wall prolapse, followed by a preference for mesh in 26% of all choices. This study showed that next to the risk of recurrence, other aspects like risk of infection, dyspareunia and exposure play a role in the woman's preference for a surgical treatment. In addition, our results indicate that anterior colporrhaphy is preferred in the majority of the choices, followed by a preference for mesh surgery in a quarter of all choice sets. However, these results represent the average preference of a sample of women and cannot be taken as the preference of each individual. In the medical decision-making context, information from the current study should be personalised to fit patient's unique circumstances. For patients to construct their own, individual preferences, they should be well informed about the existence and magnitude of the potential benefits and risks related to either anterior colporrhaphy or mesh surgery. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.
Detecting intimate partner violence during pregnancy: awareness-raising indicators for use by primary healthcare professionals.

PubMed

Reichenheim, Michael Eduardo; Patricio, Tatiane Ferreira; Moraes, Claudia Leite

2008-07-01

Given the deleterious consequences of intimate partner violence (IPV) for gestation, it is important to promote a more effective and amicable approach that engenders greater receptiveness, stimulates more open communication and, ultimately, facilitates addressing the problem. In this regard, active primary care professionals need to be educated about the different profiles of violence found in domestic environments. The aim of this study is to make the identification of those subgroups of pregnant women most likely to be living in IPV situations both practical and simple. Its ultimate goal is to give healthcare professionals who work directly with the public the tools to anticipate such events. To this end, this study presents a profile of IPV during pregnancy according to different characteristics observed among primary health service users. Five hundred and twenty-seven women who carried children to term in Rio de Janeiro were interviewed. A Portuguese version of the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS2) was used to detect IPV. Several sociodemographic factors, life habits and reproductive health characteristics of pregnant women and their partners were scrutinized. Prevalence projections by subgroup were obtained using a multinomial logit model. The projected prevalences for negotiation, psychological violence, minor physical violence and severe physical violence were, respectively, 0.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0-0.6], 2.6% (95%CI 0.7-6.9), 7.0% (95%CI 1.7-18.5) and 90.3% (95%CI 77.2-96.8) for the extreme scenario, i.e. women <20 years of age, non-White, living in house with inadequate garbage disposal, previous history of abortion, reporting fear of someone, reporting lack of affective social support, and reporting drug use by woman or spouse. In the absence of these characteristics, the projected prevalences were 51.3% (95%CI 38.5-64.6), 40.0% (95%CI 28.5-51.9), 7.6% (95%CI 4.2-12.7) and 1.1% (95%CI 0.3-2.4), respectively. This study found that knowledge of certain characteristics of pregnant women who attend health services can alert professionals to the high probability of IPV, facilitating early identification of the problem and subsequent implementation of proactive measures.
The relationship of tobacco and alcohol use with ageing self-perceptions in older people in Ireland.

PubMed

Villiers-Tuthill, Amanda; Copley, Antoinette; McGee, Hannah; Morgan, Karen

2016-07-22

Health behaviour patterns in older groups, including tobacco and alcohol use, are key factors in chronic disease prevention. We explore ageing self-perceptions as motivating factors behind smoking and drinking alcohol in older adults, and the complex reasons why individuals engage harmfully in these behaviours. Cigarette and alcohol use was assessed in a large cross-sectional national sample aged 50 years and above from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) (n = 6,576). The Brief Ageing Perceptions Questionnaire (BAPQ) assessed individual's views of their own ageing across five domains. Study hypothesis that stronger beliefs on each of the BAPQ domains would be related to drinking and smoking was examined using multinomial logit models (MNLM). Regression parameter estimates for all variables were estimated relative risk ratios (RRR). More women were non-drinkers (30 % vs. 20 %) and men displayed significantly higher alcohol use patterns. One in five older Irish adults was a current smoker (16.8 % of women, 17 % of men), and smoking and harmful drinking were strongly associated (P < .001). Some domains of ageing perceptions were significantly associated with harmful drinking and smoking. While the risk of being be harmful drinker decreased with stronger beliefs about the positive consequences of ageing (RRR 0.89), it increased with higher scores on both emotional representation and control positive domains. Greater awareness of ageing and stronger emotional reaction to ageing increased likelihood of smoking. A greater sense of control over the outcomes of ageing was associated with increased risk of both harmful drinking (RRR control positive 1.16) and smoking (RRR control and consequences negative 1.25). This suggests optimistic bias in relation to perceived health risk from smoking and harmful drinking as a potential adverse effect of perceptions of control. Risks of concurrent smoking and harmful drinking increased with chronic awareness of ageing (RRR 1.24), and negative emotional responses to it (RRR 1.21), and decreased with stronger perceptions of the positive consequences of ageing (RRR 0.85). The relationship between ageing perceptions, smoking and drinking is complex. Altering perceptions of ageing may be a useful intervention target aimed at facilitating engagement in preventative health behaviours in older people.
Ageing under unequal circumstances: a cross-sectional analysis of the gender and socioeconomic patterning of functional limitations among the Southern European elderly.

PubMed

Serrano-Alarcón, Manuel; Perelman, Julian

2017-10-03

In a context of population ageing, it is a priority for planning and prevention to understand the socioeconomic (SE) patterning of functional limitations and its consequences on healthcare needs. This paper aims at measuring the gender and SE inequalities in functional limitations and their age of onset among the Southern European elderly; then, we evaluate how functional status is linked to formal and informal care use. We used Portuguese, Italian and Spanish data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) of 2011 (n = 9233). We constructed a summary functional limitation score as the sum of two variables: i) Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and ii) Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). We modelled the functional limitation as a function of age, gender, education, subjective poverty, employment and marital status using multinomial logit models. We then estimated how functional limitation affected informal and formal care demand using negative binomial and logistic models. Women were 2.3 percentage points (pp) more likely to experience severe functional limitation than men, and overcame a 10% probability threshold of suffering from severe limitation around 5 years earlier. Subjective poverty was associated with a 3.1 pp. higher probability of severe functional limitation. Having a university degree reduced the probability of severe functional limitation by 3.5 pp. as compared to none educational level. Discrepancies were wider for the oldest old: women aged 65-79 years old were 3.3 pp. more likely to suffer severe limitations, the excess risk increasing to 15.5 pp. among those older than 80. Similarly, educational inequalities in functional limitation were wider at older ages. Being severely limited was related with a 32.1 pp. higher probability of receiving any informal care, as compared to those moderately limited. Finally, those severely limited had on average 3.2 hospitalization days and 4.6 doctor consultations more, per year, than those without limitations. Functional limitations are unequally distributed, hitting women and the worse-off earlier and more severely, with consequences on care needs. Considering the burden on healthcare systems and families, public health policies should seek to reduce current inequalities in functional limitations.
Exploring Factors Related to Young Children's Word-Meaning Derivations during Read-Alouds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christ, Tanya; Wang, X. Christine; Chiu, Ming Ming

2017-01-01

This study explores how child and text clues were related to 31 kindergarteners' word-meaning derivation outcomes for 372 words presented in books read aloud to children. Data were analyzed using a multilevel, cross-classification, ordered logit model. Children showed no word-meaning derivation 40% of the time, indicating a need for instruction.…
The Effect of Family Characteristics on Higher Education Attendance in India: A Multivariate Logit Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pramanik, Shaswati

2015-01-01

Family characteristics in terms of parental education and income are an important influence on individual's participation in higher education. In India it could be found that categorically those who are out of the higher education system belong to marginalized groups due to their economic class, caste, gender, religion etc. despite massive…
Does Education Affect Happiness? Evidence for Spain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunado, Juncal; de Gracia, Fernando Perez

2012-01-01

In this paper we study the impact of education on happiness in Spain using individual-level data from the European Social Survey, by means of estimating Ordinal Logit Models. We find both direct and indirect effects of education on happiness. First, we find an indirect effect of education on happiness through income and labour status. That is, we…
Using Random Parameter Logit in Open and Distance Learning (ODL) Institutions in Malaysia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiam, Chooi Chea; Loo, SzeWei

2015-01-01

Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL) as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Due to the advancement of technology and…
Building social capital in forest communities: Analysis of New Mexico's Collaborative Forest Restoration Program

Treesearch

Tyler Prante; Jennifer A. Thacher; Daniel W. McCollum; Robert P. Berrens

2007-01-01

In part because of its emphasis on building social capital, the Collaborative Forest Restoration Program (CFRP) in New Mexico represents a unique experiment in public lands management. This study uses logit probability modeling to investigate what factors determined CFRP funding, which totaled $26 million between 2001 and 2006. Results reveal program preferences for...
Suicidality Among High School Students in Hong Kong, SAR

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yip, Paul S. F.; Liu, K. Y.; Lam, T. H.; Stewart, Sunita M.; Chen, Eric; Fan, Susan

2004-01-01

Suicide is the leading cause of death in Hong Kong SAR for the youth aged 15?24. This study examined the prevalence of suicidality among secondary school students in Hong Kong using a representative, territory-wide sample of 2,586 students. Suicidal behaviors can be conceptualized as a spectrum of self-destructive behaviors. Cumulative logit model…
An Evaluation of the Adoption of Integrated Soil Fertility Management Practices among Women Farmers in Danja, Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Damisa, M. A.; Igonoh, E.

2007-01-01

The relationship between technology adoption and farmers' socio-economic characteristics can never be over emphasized. This study tests the determinants of technology adoption by women farmers. The result from the Logit analysis of data from Unguwan-Madaki showed that the socio-economic characteristics of women farmers significantly affect their…
Estimating a family forest landowner's likelihood of posting against trespass

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Snyder; Michael A. Kilgore; Steven J. Taff; Joseph M. Schertz

2008-01-01

Hunters and other recreators face challenges to gain access to private forestland in the United States because of an increasing number of landowners posting their land. A landowners' decision to post their land is influenced by a variety of factors, including landowner characteristics, hunter behavior, and parcel attributes. We used a logit model to help...
Senate Hearing on Assured Access to Space

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-07-16

The Hon. Alan Estevez, Principle Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Acquision, TEchnology, and Logitics, answers a question during testimony in front of the Senate Subcommittee on Strategic Forces and Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on Wednesday, July 16, 2014, at the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC. The Senate hearing focused on assured access to space.
Do You Know What You Owe? Students' Understanding of Their Student Loans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andruska, Emily A.; Hogarth, Jeanne M.; Fletcher, Cynthia Needles; Forbes, Gregory R.; Wohlgemuth, Darin R.

2014-01-01

Using a data set that augments a student survey with administrative data from the Iowa State University Office of Financial Aid, the authors posed two questions: Do students know whether they have student loans? Do students know how much they owe on outstanding student loans? We used logistic and ordered logit regressions to answer these…
Adoption of Agri-Environmental Measures by Organic Farmers: The Role of Interpersonal Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unay Gailhard, Ilkay; Bavorová, Miroslava; Pirscher, Frauke

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of interpersonal communication on the adoption of agri-environmental measures (AEM) by organic farmers in Germany. Methodology: The study used the logit model to predict the probability of adoption behaviour, and Social Network Analysis (SNA) was conducted to analyse the question of…

The Impact of School Socioeconomic Status on Student-Generated Teacher Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agnew, Steve

2011-01-01

This paper uses ordinary least squares, logit and probit regressions, along with chi-square analysis applied to nationwide data from the New Zealand ratemyteacher website to establish if there is any correlation between student ratings of their teachers and the socioeconomic status of the school the students attend. The results show that students…
Discrete post-processing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, Stephan; Haiden, Thomas; Pappenberger, Florian

2017-04-01

This contribution presents an approach to post-process ensemble forecasts for the discrete and bounded weather variable of total cloud cover. Two methods for discrete statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions are tested. The first approach is based on multinomial logistic regression, the second involves a proportional odds logistic regression model. Applying them to total cloud cover raw ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts improves forecast skill significantly. Based on station-wise post-processing of raw ensemble total cloud cover forecasts for a global set of 3330 stations over the period from 2007 to early 2014, the more parsimonious proportional odds logistic regression model proved to slightly outperform the multinomial logistic regression model. Reference Hemri, S., Haiden, T., & Pappenberger, F. (2016). Discrete post-processing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 144, 2565-2577.
Emotionally enhanced memory for negatively arousing words: storage or retrieval advantage?

PubMed

Nadarevic, Lena

2017-12-01

People typically remember emotionally negative words better than neutral words. Two experiments are reported that investigate whether emotionally enhanced memory (EEM) for negatively arousing words is based on a storage or retrieval advantage. Participants studied non-word-word pairs that either involved negatively arousing or neutral target words. Memory for these target words was tested by means of a recognition test and a cued-recall test. Data were analysed with a multinomial model that allows the disentanglement of storage and retrieval processes in the present recognition-then-cued-recall paradigm. In both experiments the multinomial analyses revealed no storage differences between negatively arousing and neutral words but a clear retrieval advantage for negatively arousing words in the cued-recall test. These findings suggest that EEM for negatively arousing words is driven by associative processes.
Speeding Up Non-Parametric Bootstrap Computations for Statistics Based on Sample Moments in Small/Moderate Sample Size Applications

PubMed Central

Chaibub Neto, Elias

2015-01-01

In this paper we propose a vectorized implementation of the non-parametric bootstrap for statistics based on sample moments. Basically, we adopt the multinomial sampling formulation of the non-parametric bootstrap, and compute bootstrap replications of sample moment statistics by simply weighting the observed data according to multinomial counts instead of evaluating the statistic on a resampled version of the observed data. Using this formulation we can generate a matrix of bootstrap weights and compute the entire vector of bootstrap replications with a few matrix multiplications. Vectorization is particularly important for matrix-oriented programming languages such as R, where matrix/vector calculations tend to be faster than scalar operations implemented in a loop. We illustrate the application of the vectorized implementation in real and simulated data sets, when bootstrapping Pearson’s sample correlation coefficient, and compared its performance against two state-of-the-art R implementations of the non-parametric bootstrap, as well as a straightforward one based on a for loop. Our investigations spanned varying sample sizes and number of bootstrap replications. The vectorized bootstrap compared favorably against the state-of-the-art implementations in all cases tested, and was remarkably/considerably faster for small/moderate sample sizes. The same results were observed in the comparison with the straightforward implementation, except for large sample sizes, where the vectorized bootstrap was slightly slower than the straightforward implementation due to increased time expenditures in the generation of weight matrices via multinomial sampling. PMID:26125965
An efficient algorithm for accurate computation of the Dirichlet-multinomial log-likelihood function.

PubMed

Yu, Peng; Shaw, Chad A

2014-06-01

The Dirichlet-multinomial (DMN) distribution is a fundamental model for multicategory count data with overdispersion. This distribution has many uses in bioinformatics including applications to metagenomics data, transctriptomics and alternative splicing. The DMN distribution reduces to the multinomial distribution when the overdispersion parameter ψ is 0. Unfortunately, numerical computation of the DMN log-likelihood function by conventional methods results in instability in the neighborhood of [Formula: see text]. An alternative formulation circumvents this instability, but it leads to long runtimes that make it impractical for large count data common in bioinformatics. We have developed a new method for computation of the DMN log-likelihood to solve the instability problem without incurring long runtimes. The new approach is composed of a novel formula and an algorithm to extend its applicability. Our numerical experiments show that this new method both improves the accuracy of log-likelihood evaluation and the runtime by several orders of magnitude, especially in high-count data situations that are common in deep sequencing data. Using real metagenomic data, our method achieves manyfold runtime improvement. Our method increases the feasibility of using the DMN distribution to model many high-throughput problems in bioinformatics. We have included in our work an R package giving access to this method and a vingette applying this approach to metagenomic data. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Factors Associated with Substance Use in Adolescents with Eating Disorders

PubMed Central

Mann, Andrea P; Accurso, Erin C.; Stiles-Shields, Colleen; Capra, Lauren; Labuschagne, Zandre; Karnik, Niranjan S.; Grange, Daniel Le

2014-01-01

Purpose To examine the prevalence and potential risk factors associated with substance use in adolescents with eating disorders (EDs). Methods This cross-sectional study included 290 adolescents, ages 12 –18 years, who presented for an initial ED evaluation at The Eating Disorders Program at The University of Chicago Medicine (UCM) between 2001 and 2012. Several factors, including DSM-5 diagnosis, diagnostic scores, and demographic characteristics were examined. Multinomial logistic regression was used to test associations between several factors and patterns of drug use for alcohol, cannabis, tobacco, and any substance. Results Lifetime prevalence of any substance use was found to be 24.6% in those with anorexia nervosa (AN), 48.7% in bulimia nervosa (BN), and 28.6% in eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS). Regular substance use (monthly, daily, and bingeing behaviors) or a substance use disorder (SUD) was found in 27.9% of all patients. Older age was the only factor associated with regular use of any substance in the final multinomial model. Older age and non-White race was associated with greater alcohol and cannabis use. Although binge-purge frequency and BN diagnosis were associated with regular substance use in bivariate analyses, gender, race and age were more robustly associated with substance use in the final multinomial models. Conclusions Co-morbid substance use in adolescents with EDs is an important issue. Interventions targeting high-risk groups reporting regular substance use or SUDs are needed. PMID:24656448
An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

PubMed

Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

2018-06-01

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.
Economic Analysis of Job-Related Attributes in Undergraduate Students' Initial Job Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jin, Yanhong H.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

2014-01-01

Economic tradeoffs students place on location, salary, distances to natural resource amenities, size of the city where the job is located, and commuting times for their first college graduate job are estimated using a mixed logit model for a sample of Texas A&M University students. The Midwest is the least preferred area having a mean salary…
Elasticity of Demand for Tuition Fees at an Institution of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langelett, George; Chang, Kuo-Liang; Ola' Akinfenwa, Samson; Jorgensen, Nicholas; Bhattarai, Kopila

2015-01-01

Using a conjoint survey of 161 students at South Dakota State University (SDSU), we mapped a probability-of-enrolment curve for SDSU students, consistent with demand theory. A quasi-demand curve was created from the conditional-logit model. This study shows that along with the price of tuition fees, distance from home, availability of majors, and…
Ethnic and Gender Differences in Science Graduation at Selective Colleges with Implications for Admission Policy and College Choice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smyth, Frederick L.; McArdle, John J.

2004-01-01

Using Bowen and Bok's data from 23 selective colleges, we fit multilevel logit models to test two hypotheses with implications for affirmative action and group differences in attainment of science, math, or engineering (SME) degrees. Hypothesis 1, that differences in precollege academic preparation will explain later SME graduation disparities,…
Biochemical Control of Marine Fouling

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-14

characterized directly. The receptors are specifically labeled with tritiated (-)- baclofen ( -chlorophenyl-GABA). This labeling is saturable, reversible (with...no change in the radioactive baclofen molecule), and stereochemically specific. Scatchard and log-logit analyses of binding data indicate that there...are approximately 1010 receptors per larva; the affinity of these receptors for (-)- baclofen is reflected by a KD = 3 x 10-7. [Our original results
Exploring the Effects of Financial Aid on the Gap in Student Dropout Risks by Income Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Rong; DesJardins, Stephen L.

2008-01-01

Using national survey data and discrete-time logit modeling, this research seeks to understand whether student aid mediates the relationship between parental income and student dropout behavior. Our analysis confirms that there is a gap in dropout rates for low-income students compared with their upper income peers, and suggests that some types of…
POLO2: a user's guide to multiple Probit Or LOgit analysis

Treesearch

Robert M. Russell; N. E. Savin; Jacqueline L. Robertson

1981-01-01

This guide provides instructions for the use of POLO2, a computer program for multivariate probit or logic analysis of quantal response data. As many as 3000 test subjects may be included in a single analysis. Including the constant term, up to nine explanatory variables may be used. Examples illustrating input, output, and uses of the program's special features...
The Relation between Test Formats and Kindergarteners' Expressions of Vocabulary Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christ, Tanya; Chiu, Ming Ming; Currie, Ashelin; Cipielewski, James

2014-01-01

This study tested how 53 kindergarteners' expressions of depth of vocabulary knowledge and use in novel contexts were related to in-context and out-of-context test formats for 16 target words. Applying multilevel, multi-categorical Logit to all 1,696 test item responses, the authors found that kindergarteners were more likely to express deep…
Developing the Impossible Figures Task to Assess Visual-Spatial Talents among Chinese Students: A Rasch Measurement Model Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, David W.

2010-01-01

Data of item responses to the Impossible Figures Task (IFT) from 492 Chinese primary, secondary, and university students were analyzed using the dichotomous Rasch measurement model. Item difficulty estimates and person ability estimates located on the same logit scale revealed that the pooled sample of Chinese students, who were relatively highly…
Cyclists' red-light running behaviours: an examination of risk-taking, opportunistic, and law-obeying behaviours.

PubMed

Pai, Chih-Wei; Jou, Rong-Chang

2014-01-01

Literature has suggested that bicyclists' red-light violations (RLVs) tend not to cause accidents although RLV is a frequent and typical bicyclist's behaviour. High association between bicyclist RLVs and accidents were, however, revealed in Taiwan. The current research explores bicyclists' RLVs by classifying crossing behaviours into three distinct manners: risk-taking, opportunistic, and law-obeying. Other variables, as well as bicyclists' crossing behaviours, were captured through the use of video cameras that were installed at selected intersections in Taoyuan County, Taiwan. Considering the unobserved heterogeneity, this research develops a mixed logit model of bicyclists' three distinct crossing behaviours. Several variables (pupils in uniform, speed limit with 60km/h) appear to have heterogeneous effects, lending support to the use of mixed logit models in bicyclist RLV research. Several factors were found to significantly increase the likelihood of bicyclists' risky behaviours, most notably: intersections with short red-light duration, T/Y intersections, when riders were pupils in uniform, when riders were riding electric bicycles, when riders were unhelmeted. Implications of the research findings, and the concluding remarks, are finally provided. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A general description of additive and nonadditive elements of sperm competitiveness and their relation to male fertilization success.

PubMed

Engqvist, Leif

2013-05-01

A complete understanding of male reproductive success, and thus sexual selection, often requires an insight into male success in sperm competition. Genuine conclusions on male sperm competitiveness can only be made in real competitive situations. However, statistical analyses of sperm competitiveness from fertilization success data have been shown to be problematic. Here, I first outline a comprehensive general description of the different additive and nonadditive elements relevant for the outcome of sperm competition staged between two males. Based on this description, I will highlight two main problems that are frequently encountered in experiments aiming at estimating sperm competitiveness. First, I focus on potential problems when using standardized competitors versus random mating trials, because trials with standardized competitors do not allow generalization if male-male interactions are important. Second, I illustrate the necessity to analyze data on the logit scale rather than on raw proportions, because only the logit scale allows a clean separation of additive and nonadditive effects (i.e., male × male and female × male interactions). © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution © 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
Heterogeneity in general practitioners' preferences for quality improvement programs: a choice experiment and policy simulation in France.

PubMed

Ammi, Mehdi; Peyron, Christine

2016-12-01

Despite increasing popularity, quality improvement programs (QIP) have had modest and variable impacts on enhancing the quality of physician practice. We investigate the heterogeneity of physicians' preferences as a potential explanation of these mixed results in France, where the national voluntary QIP - the CAPI - has been cancelled due to its unpopularity. We rely on a discrete choice experiment to elicit heterogeneity in physicians' preferences for the financial and non-financial components of QIP. Using mixed and latent class logit models, results show that the two models should be used in concert to shed light on different aspects of the heterogeneity in preferences. In particular, the mixed logit demonstrates that heterogeneity in preferences is concentrated on the pay-for-performance component of the QIP, while the latent class model shows that physicians can be grouped in four homogeneous groups with specific preference patterns. Using policy simulation, we compare the French CAPI with other possible QIPs, and show that the majority of the physician subgroups modelled dislike the CAPI, while favouring a QIP using only non-financial interventions. We underline the importance of modelling preference heterogeneity in designing and implementing QIPs.
Alcohol Use-Related Problems Among a Rural Indian Population of West Bengal: An Application of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT).

PubMed

Barik, Anamitra; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Chowdhury, Abhijit

2016-03-01

To examine alcohol use and related problems among a rural subset of the Indian population. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used as part of Health and Demographic Surveillance of 36,611 individuals aged ≥18 years. From this survey data on 3671 current alcohol users were analysed using bivariate and multivariate ordered logit regression. Over 19% of males and 2.4% of females were current alcohol users. Mean ethanol consumption on a typical drinking day among males was estimated to be higher (96.3 gm) than females (56.5 gm). Mean AUDIT score was 11 among current alcohol users. AUDIT showed in the ordered logit regression estimated alcohol use-related problems to be low among women, Scheduled Tribes and unmarried people, whereas alcohol use-related problems registered high among Muslims. This rural population appears to be in need of an effective intervention program, perhaps targeting men and the household, aimed at reducing the level of alcohol use and related problems. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
Diversity-induced resonance in the response to social norms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessone, Claudio J.; Sánchez, Angel; Schweitzer, Frank

2013-02-01

In this paper we focus on diversity-induced resonance, which was recently found in bistable, excitable, and other physical systems. We study the appearance of this phenomenon in a purely economic model of cooperating and defecting agents. An agent's contribution to a public good is seen as a social norm, so defecting agents face a social pressure, which decreases if free riding becomes widespread. In this model, diversity among agents naturally appears because of the different sensitivities towards the social norm. We study the evolution of cooperation as a response to the social norm (i) for the replicator dynamics and (ii) for the logit dynamics by means of numerical simulations. Diversity-induced resonance is observed as a maximum in the response of agents to changes in the social norm as a function of the degree of heterogeneity in the population. We provide an analytical, mean-field approach for the logit dynamics and find very good agreement with the simulations. From a socioeconomic perspective, our results show that, counterintuitively, diversity in the individual sensitivity to social norms may result in a society that better follows such norms as a whole, even if part of the population is less prone to follow them.

Joint Analysis of Binomial and Continuous Traits with a Recursive Model: A Case Study Using Mortality and Litter Size of Pigs

PubMed Central

Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

2014-01-01

This work presents a model for the joint analysis of a binomial and a Gaussian trait using a recursive parametrization that leads to a computationally efficient implementation. The model is illustrated in an analysis of mortality and litter size in two breeds of Danish pigs, Landrace and Yorkshire. Available evidence suggests that mortality of piglets increased partly as a result of successful selection for total number of piglets born. In recent years there has been a need to decrease the incidence of mortality in pig-breeding programs. We report estimates of genetic variation at the level of the logit of the probability of mortality and quantify how it is affected by the size of the litter. Several models for mortality are considered and the best fits are obtained by postulating linear and cubic relationships between the logit of the probability of mortality and litter size, for Landrace and Yorkshire, respectively. An interpretation of how the presence of genetic variation affects the probability of mortality in the population is provided and we discuss and quantify the prospects of selecting for reduced mortality, without affecting litter size. PMID:24414548
Preferences, beliefs, and self-management of diabetes.

PubMed

Sloan, Frank A; Padrón, Norma A; Platt, Alyssa C

2009-06-01

To assess relationships between self-assessed control over life events, subjective beliefs about longevity, time and risk preference, and other factors on use of recommended care for diabetes mellitus (DM), self-assessed control of diabetes, general health, and laboratory measures of HbA1c levels. Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and 2003 HRS Diabetes Study (HRS-DS). We used logit and ordered logit analyses to assess use of recommended care, and subjective and objective measures of health outcomes. Secondary analysis of HRS and HRS-DS data. Individuals with higher self-assessed control over life events and higher subjective probabilities of living 10 years engaged in more recommended DM care practices and had better self-assessed DM control and general health. However, these beliefs did not influence HbA1c levels. More highly educated and cognitively able persons were more likely to follow care recommendations. There were differences by race/ethnicity in health outcomes, but not in health investment among Hispanics. Individuals' beliefs about control over life events and longevity influenced health investment and subjective health outcomes, although these beliefs did not translate into differences in HbA1c levels. Hispanics may realize lower returns on health investments, at least for diabetes care.
Stay or Migrate? An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Place of Work, Place of Study and Birthplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liping, Ma; Kunfeng, Pan

2014-01-01

Based on a 2009 national survey on college graduate employment in China, this article analyzes the relationship of college graduates' place of work to their birthplace and where they attend college, using a conditional logit model. The findings indicate that graduates tend to stay to work in their birthplaces or places of study, controlling for…
Determining the Relationship Between Moral Waivers and Marine Corps Unsuitability Attrition

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

observed characteristics. However, econometric research indicates that the magnitude of interaction effects estimated via probit or logit models may...1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service separations. 15. NUMBER OF...files from fiscal years 1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service
An analysis of factors affecting participation behavior of limited resource farmers in agricultural cost-share programs in Alabama

Treesearch

Okwudili Onianwa; Gerald Wheelock; Buddhi Gyawali; Jianbang Gan; Mark Dubois; John Schelhas

2004-01-01

This study examines factors that affect the participation behavior of limited resource farmers in agricultural cost-share programs in Alabama. The data were generated from a survey administered to a sample of limited resource farm operators. A binary logit model was employed to analyze the data. Results indicate that college education, age, gross sales, ratio of owned...
A mixed logit model of homeowner preferences for wildfire hazard reduction

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...
A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2010-01-01

People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...
Gender, Alcohol Consumption Patterns, and Engagement in Sexually Intimate Behaviors among Adolescents and Young Adults in Nha Trang, Viet Nam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaljee, Linda M.; Green, Mackenzie S.; Zhan, Min; Riel, Rosemary; Lerdboon, Porntip; Lostutter, Ty W.; Tho, Le Huu; Luong, Vo Van; Minh, Truong Tan

2011-01-01

A randomly selected cross-sectional survey was conducted with 880 youth (16 to 24 years) in Nha Trang City to assess relationships between alcohol consumption and sexual behaviors. A timeline followback method was employed. Chi-square, generalized logit modeling and logistic regression analyses were performed. Of the sample, 78.2% male and 56.1%…
Minority households’ willingness to pay for public and private wildfire risk reduction in Florida

Treesearch

Armando González-Cabán; José J. Sánchez

2017-01-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk-reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class model allowed us to determine if there is a difference in wildfire...
Life Satisfaction among Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants in the Netherlands: The Role of Absolute and Relative Income

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gokdemir, Ozge; Dumludag, Devrim

2012-01-01

In this paper we investigate the role of several socio-economic and non-economic factors such as absolute and relative income, education and religion to explain the differences of happiness levels of Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants in the Netherlands by using ordered logit model. We focus on members of the Moroccan and Turkish communities, as…
Three-dimensional prediction of soil physical, chemical, and hydrological properties in a forested catchment of the Santa Catalina CZO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, C.; Holleran, M.; Lybrand, R. A.; Rasmussen, C.

2014-12-01

Understanding critical zone evolution and function requires an accurate assessment of local soil properties. Two-dimensional (2D) digital soil mapping provides a general assessment of soil characteristics across a sampled landscape, but lacks the ability to predict soil properties with depth. The utilization of mass-preserving spline functions enable the extrapolation of soil properties with depth, extending predictive functions to three-dimensions (3D). The present study was completed in the Marshall Gulch (MG) catchment, located in the Santa Catalina Mountains, 30 km northwest of Tucson, Arizona, as part of the Santa Catalina-Jemez Mountains Critical Zone Observatory. Twenty-four soil pits were excavated and described following standard procedures. Mass-preserving splines were used to extrapolate mass carbon (kg C m-2); percent clay, silt, and sand (%); sodium mass flux (kg Na m-2); and pH for 24 sampled soil pits in 1-cm depth increments. Saturated volumetric water content (θs) and volumetric water content at 10 kPa (θ10) were predicted using ROSETTA and established empirical relationships. The described profiles were all sampled to differing depths; to compensate for the unevenness of the profile descriptions, the soil depths were standardized from 0.0 to 1.0 and then split into five equal standard depth sections. A logit-transformation was used to normalize the target variables. Step-wise regressions were calculated using available environmental covariates to predict the properties of each variable across the catchment in each depth section, and interpolated model residuals added back to the predicted layers to generate the final soil maps. Logit-transformed R2 for the predictive functions varied widely, ranging from 0.20 to 0.79, with logit-transformed RMSE ranging from 0.15 to 2.77. The MG catchment was further classified into clusters with similar properties based on the environmental covariates, and representative depth functions for each target variable in each cluster calculated. Mass-preserving splines combined with stepwise regressions are an effective tool for predicting soil physical, chemical, and hydrological properties with depth, enhancing our understanding of the critical zone.
Advanced techniques for modeling avian nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2002-01-01

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.
Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode choice data set, and find that model selection is invariant to prior specification, while model derivatives like willingness-to-pay are notably sensitive to model choice. I also find that the Laplace approximation is remarkably accurate in spite of the potential for nested logit models to have irregular likelihood surfaces.
The Spacetime Between Einstein and Kaluza-Klein: Further Explorations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, Chris

2017-01-01

Tensor multinomials can be used to create a generalization of Einstein's general relativity that in a mathematical sense falls between Einstein's original theory in four dimensions and the Kaluza-Klein theory in five dimensions. In the extended theory there are only four physical dimensions, but the tensor multinomials are expanded operators that can accommodate other forces of nature. The equivalent Ricci tensor of this geometry yields vacuum general relativity and electromagnetism, as well as a Klein-Gordon-like quantum scalar field. With a generalization of the stress-energy tensor, an exact solution for a plane-symmetric dust can be found where the scalar portion of the field drives early universe inflation, levels off for a period, then causes a later continued universal acceleration, a possible geometric mechanism for the inflaton or dark energy. Some new explorations of the equations, the problems, and possibilities will be presented and discussed.
Identification of nonclassical properties of light with multiplexing layouts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperling, J.; Eckstein, A.; Clements, W. R.; Moore, M.; Renema, J. J.; Kolthammer, W. S.; Nam, S. W.; Lita, A.; Gerrits, T.; Walmsley, I. A.; Agarwal, G. S.; Vogel, W.

2017-07-01

In Sperling et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 163602 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.163602], we introduced and applied a detector-independent method to uncover nonclassicality. Here, we extend those techniques and give more details on the performed analysis. We derive a general theory of the positive-operator-valued measure that describes multiplexing layouts with arbitrary detectors. From the resulting quantum version of a multinomial statistics, we infer nonclassicality probes based on a matrix of normally ordered moments. We discuss these criteria and apply the theory to our data which are measured with superconducting transition-edge sensors. Our experiment produces heralded multiphoton states from a parametric down-conversion light source. We show that the known notions of sub-Poisson and sub-binomial light can be deduced from our general approach, and we establish the concept of sub-multinomial light, which is shown to outperform the former two concepts of nonclassicality for our data.
The multinomial simulation algorithm for discrete stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems.

PubMed

Lampoudi, Sotiria; Gillespie, Dan T; Petzold, Linda R

2009-03-07

The Inhomogeneous Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (ISSA) is a variant of the stochastic simulation algorithm in which the spatially inhomogeneous volume of the system is divided into homogeneous subvolumes, and the chemical reactions in those subvolumes are augmented by diffusive transfers of molecules between adjacent subvolumes. The ISSA can be prohibitively slow when the system is such that diffusive transfers occur much more frequently than chemical reactions. In this paper we present the Multinomial Simulation Algorithm (MSA), which is designed to, on the one hand, outperform the ISSA when diffusive transfer events outnumber reaction events, and on the other, to handle small reactant populations with greater accuracy than deterministic-stochastic hybrid algorithms. The MSA treats reactions in the usual ISSA fashion, but uses appropriately conditioned binomial random variables for representing the net numbers of molecules diffusing from any given subvolume to a neighbor within a prescribed distance. Simulation results illustrate the benefits of the algorithm.
Verbal Ability and Persistent Offending: A Race-Specific Test of Moffitt's Theory

PubMed Central

Bellair, Paul E.; McNulty, Thomas L.; Piquero, Alex R.

2014-01-01

Theoretical questions linger over the applicability of the verbal ability model to African Americans and the social control theory hypothesis that educational failure mediates the effect of verbal ability on offending patterns. Accordingly, this paper investigates whether verbal ability distinguishes between offending groups within the context of Moffitt's developmental taxonomy. Questions are addressed with longitudinal data spanning childhood through young-adulthood from an ongoing national panel, and multinomial and hierarchical Poisson models (over-dispersed). In multinomial models, low verbal ability predicts membership in a life-course-persistent-oriented group relative to an adolescent-limited-oriented group. Hierarchical models indicate that verbal ability is associated with arrest outcomes among White and African American subjects, with effects consistently operating through educational attainment (high school dropout). The results support Moffitt's hypothesis that verbal deficits distinguish adolescent-limited- and life-course-persistent-oriented groups within race as well as the social control model of verbal ability. PMID:26924885
Identification of nonclassical properties of light with multiplexing layouts

PubMed Central

Sperling, J.; Eckstein, A.; Clements, W. R.; Moore, M.; Renema, J. J.; Kolthammer, W. S.; Nam, S. W.; Lita, A.; Gerrits, T.; Walmsley, I. A.; Agarwal, G. S.; Vogel, W.

2018-01-01

In Sperling et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 163602 (2017)], we introduced and applied a detector-independent method to uncover nonclassicality. Here, we extend those techniques and give more details on the performed analysis. We derive a general theory of the positive-operator-valued measure that describes multiplexing layouts with arbitrary detectors. From the resulting quantum version of a multinomial statistics, we infer nonclassicality probes based on a matrix of normally ordered moments. We discuss these criteria and apply the theory to our data which are measured with superconducting transition-edge sensors. Our experiment produces heralded multiphoton states from a parametric down-conversion light source. We show that the known notions of sub-Poisson and sub-binomial light can be deduced from our general approach, and we establish the concept of sub-multinomial light, which is shown to outperform the former two concepts of nonclassicality for our data. PMID:29670949
Grouped gene selection and multi-classification of acute leukemia via new regularized multinomial regression.

PubMed

Li, Juntao; Wang, Yanyan; Jiang, Tao; Xiao, Huimin; Song, Xuekun

2018-05-09

Diagnosing acute leukemia is the necessary prerequisite to treating it. Multi-classification on the gene expression data of acute leukemia is help for diagnosing it which contains B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BALL), T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (TALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, selecting cancer-causing genes is a challenging problem in performing multi-classification. In this paper, weighted gene co-expression networks are employed to divide the genes into groups. Based on the dividing groups, a new regularized multinomial regression with overlapping group lasso penalty (MROGL) has been presented to simultaneously perform multi-classification and select gene groups. By implementing this method on three-class acute leukemia data, the grouped genes which work synergistically are identified, and the overlapped genes shared by different groups are also highlighted. Moreover, MROGL outperforms other five methods on multi-classification accuracy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
MPTinR: analysis of multinomial processing tree models in R.

PubMed

Singmann, Henrik; Kellen, David

2013-06-01

We introduce MPTinR, a software package developed for the analysis of multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. MPT models represent a prominent class of cognitive measurement models for categorical data with applications in a wide variety of fields. MPTinR is the first software for the analysis of MPT models in the statistical programming language R, providing a modeling framework that is more flexible than standalone software packages. MPTinR also introduces important features such as (1) the ability to calculate the Fisher information approximation measure of model complexity for MPT models, (2) the ability to fit models for categorical data outside the MPT model class, such as signal detection models, (3) a function for model selection across a set of nested and nonnested candidate models (using several model selection indices), and (4) multicore fitting. MPTinR is available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MPTinR/ .

The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain.

PubMed

Cameron, C Daryl; Spring, Victoria L; Todd, Andrew R

2017-04-01

Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine-other) perspective-taking uniquely increased Unintentional Empathy. In Experiment 3, Intentional and Unintentional Empathy were stronger toward targets with typical (vs. atypical) pain outcomes, suggesting that outcome information matters and that effects on the PIT are not reducible to affective priming. Typicality of pain outcomes more weakly affected task performance when target stimuli were merely categorized rather than judged for painfulness, suggesting that effects on the latter are not reducible to semantic priming. In Experiment 4, Unintentional Empathy was stronger for participants who engaged in costly donation to cancer charities, but this parameter was also high for those who donated to an objectively worse but socially more popular charity, suggesting that overly high empathy may facilitate maladaptive altruism. Theoretical and practical applications of our modeling approach for understanding variation in empathy are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Using species spectra to evaluate plant community conservation value along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance.

PubMed

Marcelino, José A P; Silva, Luís; Garcia, Patricia V; Weber, Everett; Soares, António O

2013-08-01

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of anthropogenic disturbance on the partitioning of plant communities (species spectra) across a landcover gradient of community types, categorizing species on the basis of their biogeographic, ecological, and conservation status. We tested a multinomial model to generate species spectra and monitor changes in plant assemblages as anthropogenic disturbance rise, as well as the usefulness of this method to assess the conservation value of a given community. Herbaceous and arborescent communities were sampled in five Azorean islands. Margins were also sampled to account for edge effects. Different multinomial models were applied to a data set of 348 plant species accounting for differences in parameter estimates among communities and/or islands. Different levels of anthropogenic disturbance produced measurable changes on species spectra. Introduced species proliferated and indigenous species declined, as anthropogenic disturbance and management intensity increased. Species assemblages of relevance other than economic (i.e., native, endemic, threatened species) were enclosed not only in natural habitats, but also in human managed arborescent habitats, which can positively contribute for the preservation of indigenous species outside remnants of natural areas, depending on management strategies. A significant presence of invasive species in margin transects of most community types will contribute to an increase in edge effect that might facilitate invasion. The multinomial model developed in this study was found to be a novel and expedient tool to characterize the species spectra at a given community and its use could be extrapolated for other assemblages or organisms, in order to evaluate and forecast the conservation value of a site.
OPTIMAL DESIGN FOR MULTINOMIAL CHOICE EXPERIMENTS. (R827987)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...
Them That's Got: How Tie Formation in Partnership Networks Gives High Schools Differential Access to Social Capital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bridwell-Mitchell, E. N.

2017-01-01

School partnerships are important sources of school social capital. Schools may have unequal access to social capital due to the pattern of relationships in the school-partner network. Using data on school resource needs, sociometric measures, and a set of multilevel logit models, the results of a study of 211 New York City public high schools and…
Forest resources, government policy, and investment location decisions of the forest products industry in the southern United States

Treesearch

Changyou Sun; Daowei Zhang

2010-01-01

In this article, the results of an initial attempt to estimate the effects of state attributes on plant location and investment expenditure were presented for the forest products industry in the southern United States. A conditional logit model was used to analyze new plant births, and a time-series cross-section model to assess the total capital expenditure....
Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osborne, Jason W.

2012-01-01

Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These…
Part-Time Community-College Faculty and the Desire for Full-Time Tenure-Track Positions: Results of a Single Institution Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacoby, Dan

2005-01-01

According to data derived from a community-college survey in the state of Washington, the majority of part-time faculty prefer full-time work. Using a logit regression analysis, the study reported in this paper suggests that typical part-timers enter their part-time teaching situations with the intent of becoming full-time, but gradually become…
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions

PubMed Central

Levy, Brian L.; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

2017-01-01

Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated. PMID:28547003
Valuing air quality impacts using stated choice analysis: trading off visibility against morbidity effects.

PubMed

Rizzi, Luis Ignacio; Maza, Cristóbal De La; Cifuentes, Luis Abdón; Gómez, Jorge

2014-12-15

Direct valuation of air quality has as a drawback; that estimated willingness to pay figures cannot be apportioned to the several environmental goods affected by air quality, such as mortality and morbidity effects, visibility, outdoor recreation, among others. To address this issue, we implemented a survey in Santiago de Chile to identify component values of confounded environmental services by means of a choice experiment. We designed a survey where two environmental goods, a morbidity health endpoint and improved visibility, had to be jointly traded off against each other and against money in a unified framework. The health endpoint is a respiratory illness that results in an emergency room visit with a probability of hospitalization being required for appropriate treatment. Visibility is described as an aesthetic effect related to the number of days per year of high visibility. Modeling comprises both a logit model with covariates and a mixed-logit model. The results suggest that the health endpoint midpoint value is in a range from USD 2,800 to USD 13,000, mainly depending on the model and age stratum. The mid point value of an extra day of high visibility per year ranges from USD 281,000 to USD 379,000. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Transformation of arbitrary distributions to the normal distribution with application to EEG test-retest reliability.

PubMed

van Albada, S J; Robinson, P A

2007-04-15

Many variables in the social, physical, and biosciences, including neuroscience, are non-normally distributed. To improve the statistical properties of such data, or to allow parametric testing, logarithmic or logit transformations are often used. Box-Cox transformations or ad hoc methods are sometimes used for parameters for which no transformation is known to approximate normality. However, these methods do not always give good agreement with the Gaussian. A transformation is discussed that maps probability distributions as closely as possible to the normal distribution, with exact agreement for continuous distributions. To illustrate, the transformation is applied to a theoretical distribution, and to quantitative electroencephalographic (qEEG) measures from repeat recordings of 32 subjects which are highly non-normal. Agreement with the Gaussian was better than using logarithmic, logit, or Box-Cox transformations. Since normal data have previously been shown to have better test-retest reliability than non-normal data under fairly general circumstances, the implications of our transformation for the test-retest reliability of parameters were investigated. Reliability was shown to improve with the transformation, where the improvement was comparable to that using Box-Cox. An advantage of the general transformation is that it does not require laborious optimization over a range of parameters or a case-specific choice of form.
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions.

PubMed

Levy, Brian L; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

2017-04-01

Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.
Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

2018-08-01

This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Adoption of health information technologies by physicians for clinical practice: The Andalusian case.

PubMed

Villalba-Mora, Elena; Casas, Isabel; Lupiañez-Villanueva, Francisco; Maghiros, Ioannis

2015-07-01

We investigated the level of adoption of Health Information Technologies (HIT) services, and the factors that influence this, amongst specialised and primary care physicians; in Andalusia, Spain. We analysed the physicians' responses to an online survey. First, we performed a statistical descriptive analysis of the data; thereafter, a principal component analysis; and finally an order logit model to explain the effect of the use in the adoption and to analyse which are the existing barriers. The principal component analysis revealed three main uses of Health Information Technologies: Electronic Health Records (EHR), ePrescription and patient management and telemedicine services. Results from an ordered logit model showed that the frequency of use of HIT is associated with the physicians' perceived usefulness. Lack of financing appeared as a common barrier to the adoption of the three types of services. For ePrescription and patient management, the physician's lack of skills is still a barrier. In the case of telemedicine services, lack of security and lack of interest amongst professionals are the existing barriers. EHR functionalities are fully adopted, in terms of perceived usefulness. EPrescription and patient management are almost fully adopted, while telemedicine is in an early stage of adoption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Impact of socioeconomic status and medical conditions on health and healthcare utilization among aging Ghanaians.

PubMed

Saeed, Bashiru Ii; Xicang, Zhao; Yawson, Alfred Edwin; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Nsowah-Nuamah, Nicholas N N

2015-03-20

This study attempts to examine the impact of socioeconomic and medical conditions in health and healthcare utilization among older adults in Ghana. Five separate models with varying input variables were estimated for each response variable. Data (Wave 1 data) were drawn from the World Health Organization Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted during 2007-2008 and included a total of 4770 respondents aged 50+ and 803 aged 18-49 in Ghana. Ordered logits was estimated for self-rated health, and binary logits for functional limitation and healthcare utilization. Our results show that the study provides enough grounds for further research on the interplay between socioeconomic and medical conditions on one hand and the health of the aged on the other. Controlling for socioeconomic status substantially contributes significantly to utilization. Also, aged women experience worse health than men, as shown by functioning assessment, self-rated health, chronic conditions and functional limitations. Women have higher rates of healthcare utilization, as shown by significantly higher rates of hospitalization and outpatient encounters. Expansion of the national health insurance scheme to cover the entire older population--for those in both formal and informal employments--is likely to garner increased access and improved health states for the older population.
Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

2006-01-01

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…
Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-11-01

1971) and Alam (1978) have shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is admissible with respect to the quadratic loss. Steinhaus (1957) and Trybula...appear). Johnson, B. Mck. (1971). On admissible estimators for certain fixed sample binomial populations. Ann. Math. Statist. 92, 1579-1587. Steinhaus , H
Caregiver Burdens and Preventive Dental Care for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder, Developmental Disability and/or Mental Health Conditions: National Survey of CSHCN, 2009-2010.

PubMed

Wiener, R Constance; Vohra, Rini; Sambamoorthi, Usha; Madhavan, S Suresh

2016-12-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the burdens of caregivers on perception of the need and receipt of preventive dental care for a subset of children with special health care needs-children with Autism Spectrum disorder, developmental disability and/or mental health conditions (CASD/DD/MHC). Methods The authors used the 2009-2010 National Survey of CSHCN. The survey included questions addressing preventive dental care and caregivers' financial, employment, and time-related burdens. The associations of these burdens on perceptions and receipt of preventive dental care use were analyzed with bivariate Chi square analyses and multinomial logistic regressions for CASD/DD/MHC (N = 16,323). Results Overall, 16.3 % of CASD/DD/MHC had an unmet preventive dental care need. There were 40.0 % of caregivers who reported financial burden, 20.3 % who reported employment burden, and 10.8 % who reported time burden. A higher percentage of caregivers with financial burden, employment burden, and time-related burden reported that their CASD/DD/MHC did not receive needed preventive dental care (14.1, 16.5, 17.7 % respectively) compared to caregivers without financial, employment, or time burdens (9.0, 9.6 %, 11.0 % respectively). Caregivers with financial burden (adjusted multinomial odds ratio, 1.38 [95 % CI 1.02, 1.86] and employment burden (adjusted multinomial odds ratio, 1.45 [95 % CI 1.02, 2.06] were more likely to report that their child did not receive preventive dental care despite perceived need compared to caregivers without financial or employment burdens. Conclusions for practice Unmet needs for preventive dental care were associated with employment and financial burdens of the caregivers of CASD/DD/MHC.
Caregiver Burdens and Preventive Dental Care for Children with Autism Spectrum disorder, developmental disability and/or mental health conditions: National Survey of CSHCN, 2009–10

PubMed Central

Vohra, Rini; Sambamoorthi, Usha; Madhavan, S. Suresh

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the burdens of caregivers on one perception of the need and receipt of preventive dental care for a subset of children with special health care needs—children with Autism Spectrum disorder, developmental disability and/or mental health conditions (CASD/DD/MHC). Methods The authors used the 2009–2010 National Survey of CSHCN. The survey included questions addressing preventive dental care and caregivers’ financial, employment, and time-related burdens. The associations of these burdens on perceptions and receipt of preventive dental care use were analyzed with bivariate Chi square analyses and multinomial logistic regressions for CASD/DD/MHC (N=16,323). Results Overall, 16.3% of CASD/DD/MHC had an unmet preventive dental care need. There were 40.0% of caregivers who reported financial burden, 20.3% who reported employment burden, and 10.8% who reported time burden. A higher percentage of caregivers with financial burden, employment burden, and time-related burden reported that their CASD/DD/MHC did not receive needed preventive dental care (14.1 %, 16.5%, 17.7% respectively) compared to caregivers without financial, employment, or time burdens (9.0%, 9.6%, 11.0% respectively). Caregivers with financial burden (adjusted multinomial odds ratio, 1.38 [95%CI: 1.02, 1.86]) and employment burden (adjusted multinomial odds ratio, 1.45 [95%CI: 1.02, 2.06]) were more likely to report that their child did not receive preventive dental care despite perceived need compared to caregivers without financial or employment burdens. Conclusions for practice Unmet needs for preventive dental care were associated with employment and financial burdens of the caregivers of CASD/DD/MHC. PMID:27465058
Elderly road collision injury outcomes associated with seat positions and seatbelt use in a rapidly aging society—A case study in South Korea

PubMed Central

Noh, Yuna

2017-01-01

Introduction Aging has long been regarded as one of the most critical factors affecting crash injury outcomes. In South Korea, where the elderly population is projected to reach 35.9% by 2050, the implications of an increasing number of elderly vehicle users on road safety are evident. In this research, the confounding effect of occupant age in a vehicle in terms of seat position and seatbelt use was investigated. In addition, elderly occupants were divided into a younger-old group aged between 65 and 74 years and an older-old group aged 75 years and older in an effort to assess whether the conventional elderly age standard of 65 years should be reconsidered. Methods A multinomial logit framework was adopted to predict two-level injury severity using collision data between 2008 and 2015. Predictor variables included gender, age group, seat position, seatbelt, road type, road slope, road surface, road line, and type of vehicle. Five models, a base model with no interactions and four interaction models which were combinations of age group, seatbelt use and seat position, were devised and evaluated. Results With no interacting term, age was the most prominent predictor. Elderly occupants were most likely to suffer from severe injury without a seatbelt in all seat positions, and the use of a seatbelt reduced this likelihood the most in the elderly group as well. Front passenger seats had the highest risk to elderly occupants, while the driver seat was statistically insignificant. When the elderly group was divided into the younger-old group and the older-old group, the older-olds were found to be much more vulnerable compared to the younger-olds. In particular, older drivers were five times more likely to suffer a severe injury without a seatbelt. Conclusions The degree of injury severity of elderly occupants was reduced the most with the use of a seatbelt, demonstrating the importance of using seat restraints. The sharp increase in the risk of injury of the older-old group suggests that the age standard of 65 years as the elderly group with regard to traffic safety may require reconsideration due to the growing number of elderly vehicle users on the road. Our results provide practical evidence with which to formulate new safety policies, including mandatory seatbelt use, driving age limits and insurance pricing. PMID:28800595
Trends in contraceptive use and determinants of choice in China: 1980-2010.

PubMed

Wang, Cuntong

2012-06-01

In China, contraception is the most commonly used practice adopted by couples seeking to limit their number of children and to determine the time interval between births. Since 1980, the implementation of mandatory contraceptive strategy has reduced the fertility rate. Using large-scale data from national statistics and nationally representative sample surveys, the current study aims to assess Chinese trends in contraceptive use and determinants of choice from 1980 to 2010 among married women and men aged 20-49 years. Since 1980, national data on contraceptive methods utilization have been gathered by the National Population and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NPFPC). Additionally, data from three roughly representative decennial samples (1988, 1997, 2006) of Chinese women of aged 20 to 57 years have been gathered by the NPFPC through the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Surveys in China. A relatively stable Chinese mode of contraception has been established and maintained since the 1980s. This is characterized by long-term contraceptive use which is still dominant in current China. In addition, China's total contraceptive prevalence rates remain at the highest level across the globe from 1980 to 2010. However, the overall method composition of contraceptive use within China has changed since the mid-1990s. Over the study period, the prevalence rate of sterilization increased from 30.21% in 1980 to 46.47% of married women of reproductive age (20-49 years) in 1994 and then declined to 31.7% in 2010. At the same time, intrauterine device usage increased (39.83% in 1980 to 48.15% in 2010), as did oral contraception (0.3% in 1980 to 0.98% in 2010) and condom usage (2.35% in 1980 to 9.32% in 2010). The results from the multinomial logit model show that an individual's contraceptive choice depends not only on individual characteristics, including ethnicity, age, education level, household registration, region, number of living children and sex of the last living child, but also on the strength of family planning policies. A positive coefficient indicates that the looser the strength of family planning policies is, the more likely the individual is to choose condoms or another short-term contraceptive method. Long-term contraceptive use is still dominant in China. In fact, over the 30-year period (1980-2010) and in comparative world perspective, China continues to have the highest total contraceptive prevalence rate. Additionally, an individual's contraceptive choice is jointly influenced by the strength of family planning policies and individual characteristics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Methods for Detecting Differential Distractor Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koon, Sharon

2010-01-01

This study examined the effectiveness of the odds-ratio method (Penfield, 2008) and the multinomial logistic regression method (Kato, Moen, & Thurlow, 2009) for measuring differential distractor functioning (DDF) effects in comparison to the standardized distractor analysis approach (Schmitt & Bleistein, 1987). Students classified as participating…
Use of negative multinomial linear models to investigate environmental effects on community structure.

EPA Science Inventory

A frequent goal in ecology is to understand the relationships between biological communities and their environment. Anderson and McCardle (2001) provided a nonparametric method, known as Permanova, that is often used for this purpose. Permanova represents a significant advance,...
Statistical Development and Application of Cultural Consensus Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-31

Bulletin & Review , 17, 275-286. Schmittmann, V.D., Dolan, C.V., Raijmakers, M.E.J., and Batchelder, W.H. (2010). Parameter identification in...Wu, H., Myung, J.I., and Batchelder, W.H. (2010). Minimum description length model selection of multinomial processing tree models. Psychonomic
Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M

Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curvemore » (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions.« less
Making sense of sparse rating data in collaborative filtering via topographic organization of user preference patterns.

PubMed

Polcicová, Gabriela; Tino, Peter

2004-01-01

We introduce topographic versions of two latent class models (LCM) for collaborative filtering. Latent classes are topologically organized on a square grid. Topographic organization of latent classes makes orientation in rating/preference patterns captured by the latent classes easier and more systematic. The variation in film rating patterns is modelled by multinomial and binomial distributions with varying independence assumptions. In the first stage of topographic LCM construction, self-organizing maps with neural field organized according to the LCM topology are employed. We apply our system to a large collection of user ratings for films. The system can provide useful visualization plots unveiling user preference patterns buried in the data, without loosing potential to be a good recommender model. It appears that multinomial distribution is most adequate if the model is regularized by tight grid topologies. Since we deal with probabilistic models of the data, we can readily use tools from probability and information theories to interpret and visualize information extracted by our system.
Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Ferrari, Alberto

2017-01-01

Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.
Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.
Predictors of Early Termination in a University Counseling Training Clinic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lampropoulos, Georgios K.; Schneider, Mercedes K.; Spengler, Paul M.

2009-01-01

Despite the existence of counseling dropout research, there are limited predictive data for counseling in training clinics. Potential predictor variables were investigated in this archival study of 380 client files in a university counseling training clinic. Multinomial logistic regression, predictive discriminant analysis, and classification and…
Understanding Civic Identity in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weerts, David J.; Cabrera, Alberto F.

2015-01-01

Past literature has examined ways in which college students adopt civic identities. However, little is known about characteristics of students that vary in their expression of these identities. Drawing on data from American College Testing (ACT), this study employs multinomial logistic regression to understand attributes of students who vary in…
Evaluating the Locational Attributes of Education Management Organizations (EMOs)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gulosino, Charisse; Miron, Gary

2017-01-01

This study uses logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to analyze neighborhood factors affecting EMO (Education Management Organization)-operated schools' locational attributes (using census tracts) in 41 states for the 2014-2015 school year. Our research combines market-based school reform, institutional theory, and resource…
Intergroup Relations and Predictors of Immigrant Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danso, Kofi; Lum, Terry

2013-01-01

Using survey data from 1,036 participants, which included 4 immigrant groups, we examined the factors that influence immigrants' experiences as they interact with nonimmigrant Americans. Logistic and multinomial regression results indicate that non-European immigrants were more likely to report negative experiences with Americans. The odds of…
The Role of Predictor Courses and Teams on Individual Student Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker-Eveleth, Lori Jo; O'Neill, Michele; Sisodiya, Sanjay R.

2014-01-01

Research suggests that diverse environments enhance conscious modes of thought, resulting in greater intellectual engagement and active thinking. Ordinal and multinomial logistic regression results indicate that accounting courses and business law classes are useful predictors of subsequent performance. Odds ratio estimates indicate that students…
Caregivers' Retirement Congruency: A Case for Caregiver Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Humble, Aine M.; Keefe, Janice M.; Auton, Greg M.

2012-01-01

Using the concept of "retirement congruency" (RC), which takes into account greater variation in retirement decisions (low, moderate, or high RC) than a dichotomous conceptualization (forced versus chosen), multinomial logistic regression was conducted on a sample of caregivers from the 2002 Canadian General Social Survey who were…
A Framework for the Analysis of the Reserve Officer Augmentation Process in the United States Marine Corps

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

occupation group, category (i.e., strength, loss, etc.), years of commissioned service (YCS), grade, occupation, source of commission, education, sex ...OF MCORP OUTPUT OCCUPATION GROUP: All CAT: Strength YCS: 01 - 09 GRADE: All Unrestricted Officers OCCUPATION: All SOURCE: All EDUCATION: All SEX : All...source of commission, sex , MOS, GCT, and other pertinent variables such as the performance index. A Probit or Logit model could be utilized. The variables
The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977
An Analysis of Army Dentists Using Logistic Regression: A Discrete-Time Logit Model for Predicting Retention

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-10

Reports (0704 0188), 1215 Jefferson Devis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202 4302 Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) US Army Medical Department Center and School BLDG 2841 MCCS-HGE-HA (Army-Baylor Program in Health & Business Administration...been used to model negative occurrences in the medical field, such as time to death from a certain disease. However, questions of whether and when
Complementarity in dietary supplements and foods: are supplement users vegetable eaters?

PubMed

Kang, Hyoung-Goo; Joo, Hailey Hayeon; Choi, Kyong Duk; Lee, Dongmin; Moon, Junghoon

2017-01-01

Background : The consumption of fruits, vegetables, and dietary supplements correlate. Most previous studies have aimed to identify the determinants of supplement uses or the distinct features of supplement users; this literature lacks a discussion on dietary supplement consumption as a predictor of fruit and vegetable consumption. Objective : This study examines how dietary supplement consumption correlates with fruit and vegetable consumption by combining scanner data and surveys of Korean household grocery shopping. Methods : Propensity score matching (PSM) is used to identify the relationship between dietary supplement consumption and fruit and vegetable consumption in a household. A logit regression using supplement consumption as the dependent variable is used. Then, the supplement takers (the treatment group) are matched with non-takers (the control group) based on the propensity scores estimated in the logit regression. The fruit and vegetable consumption levels of the groups are then compared. Results : We found that dietary supplement use is associated with higher fruit and vegetable consumption. This supports the health consciousness hypothesis based on attention bias, availability heuristics, the focusing effect, and the consumption episode effect. It rejects the health substitute hypothesis based on economic substitutes and mental accounting. Conclusions : Future research on the health benefits of dietary supplements should address the complementary consumption of fruits/vegetables and their health benefits to avoid misstating the health effects of supplements.
Main Determinants of Catastrophic Health Expenditures: A Bayesian Logit Approach on Iranian Household Survey Data (2010)

PubMed Central

Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Fazaeli, Amir Abbas; Lotfi, Farhad; Salehi, Masoud; Mehrara, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Background: During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. Objectives: The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. Patients and Methods: In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. Results: Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. Conclusions: About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems. PMID:25946936
Main determinants of catastrophic health expenditures: a Bayesian logit approach on Iranian household survey data (2010).

PubMed

Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Abbas Fazaeli, Amir; Lotfi, Farhad; Salehi, Masoud; Mehrara, Mohsen

2015-01-26

During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems.
The economic value of stream restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Alan; Rosenberger, Randy; Fletcher, Jerald

2005-02-01

The economic value of restoring Deckers Creek in Monongalia and Preston counties of West Virginia was determined from mail, Internet, and personal contact surveys. Multiattribute, choice experiments were conducted and nested logit models were estimated to derive the economic values of full restoration for three attributes of this creek: aquatic life, swimming, and scenic quality. Their relative economic values were that aquatic life > scenic quality ≈ swimming. These economic values imply that respondents had the highest value for aquatic life when fully restoring Deckers Creek to a sustainable fishery rather than a "put and take" fishery that cannot sustain fish populations. The welfare improvement estimates for full restoration of all three attributes ranged between 12 and 16 per month per household. Potential stream users (anglers) had the largest welfare gain from restoration, while nonangler respondents had the lowest. When these estimates were aggregated up to the entire watershed population, the benefit from restoration of Deckers Creek was estimated to be about $1.9 million annually. This benefit does not account for any economic values from partial stream restoration. On the basis of log likelihood tests of the nested logit models, two subsamples of the survey population (the general population and stream users) were found to be from the same population. Thus restoration choices by stream users may be representative of the watershed population, although the sample size of stream users was small in this research.

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