High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries.

PubMed

Dresser, Caleb; Allison, Jeroan; Broach, John; Smith, Mary-Elise; Milsten, Andrew

2016-12-01

Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries. Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations. Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP. Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).

Storm event-scale nutrient attenuation in constructed wetlands experiencing a Mediterranean climate: A comparison of a surface flow and hybrid surface-subsurface flow system.

PubMed

Adyel, Tanveer M; Oldham, Carolyn E; Hipsey, Matthew R

2017-11-15

Among different Water Sensitive Urban Design options, constructed wetlands (CWs) are used to protect and restore downstream water quality by attenuating nutrients generated by stormwater runoff. This research compared the nutrient attenuation ability during a diverse population of storm events of two CWs: (a) a hybrid CW with multiple alternating surface flow (SF) and laterite-based subsurface flow (SSF) compartments, and (b) a single stage SF CW. Within-storm variability, nutrient concentrations were assessed at 2 to 3-h intervals at both the main inlet and outlet of each CW. Dissolved oxygen concentrations of the surface waters were also monitored at 10-min intervals using high frequency in situ sensors. Nutrient loads into the CWs were observed to be higher when a high rainfall event occurred, particularly after longer antecedent dry conditions. Longer hydraulic retention times promoted higher attenuation at both sites. However, the relative extent of nutrient attenuation differed between the CW types; the mean total nitrogen (TN) attenuation in the hybrid and SF CW was 45 and 48%, respectively. The hybrid CW attenuated 67% total phosphorus (TP) loads on average, while the SF CW acted as a net TP source. Periodic storm events transitioned the lentic CW into a lotic CW and caused riparian zone saturation; it was therefore hypothesized that such saturation of organic matter rich-riparian zones led to release of TP in the system. The hybrid CW attenuated the released TP in the downstream laterite-based SSF compartments. Diel oxygen metabolism calculated before and after the storm events was found to be strongly correlated with water temperature, solar exposure and antecedent dry condition during the pre-storm conditions. Furthermore, the SF CW showed a significant relationship between overall nutrient load attenuation and the change in oxygen metabolism during the storm perturbation, suggesting oxygen variation could be a useful proxy indicator of CW function. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geological and Geomorphological Impacts of Two Large Typhoons from the Central Coast Of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, A. D.; Gouramanis, C.; Dura, T.; Lam, D. D.; Hoang, L. V.; Sloss, C. R.; Hoang, Q. D.; Lee, Y. S.; Chan, M. M.; Pham, D. T.

2011-12-01

Typhoons Xangsane (2006) and Ketsana (2009) left behind geological and geomorphic evidence of their landfall in central Vietnam. In both instances, the events caused the evacuation of several hundred thousand people, considerable deaths (at least 70 and 160, respectively) and damages to infrastructure of more than US$600 million each time. Storm surges and waves associated with both events left sandsheet deposits and scattered cobble to boulder size clasts on the coastal landscape. This study details the first investigation of multiple storm deposits from the Vietnamese coast. These deposits provide modern analogues for the study of past events regionally and globally. In each situation, the deposits show characteristics unique to their setting. In one location, Canh Duong Village, at the northern end of Chan May embayment, the Xangsane event deposited well-defined populations of cobbles (rock) and soil clasts that allows the identification of the sediment source. In a second location, several hundred meters west of Chan May Port and at the southern end of the embayment, the presence of a large tree stump with encrusting intertidal bivalve molluscs and tube worms provides a minimum transport distance for the Ketsana event. When combined with generic information on the extent, height above sea level and sedimentary properties of the storm-deposited sandsheets, the unique qualities of the different deposits allow an accurate reconstruction of the inundation characteristics of these recent storms.

Major Geomagnetic Storms in Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.

2013-12-01

Solar Cycle 24 has produced 11 major geomagnetic storms (where Dstmin < -100 nT) with three in 2011, six in 2012 and two in 2013 (as of 7 August 2013). Detailed analysis of each event will be given in terms of its solar driver(s): CME, coronal hole high speed solar wind stream (HSS), multiple CMEs or interactions between CME and HSS. While some of these storms are associated with a fast and wide CME, the few cases involving slow or common CMEs and interactions with HSS are particularly interesting. These events pose great challenges for accurate space weather forecasting, since operationally the slower or average CMEs tend to receive less attention and are sometimes overlooked altogether. The characteristics of such challenging, not-so-fast yet geoeffective CME events (such as their coronal signatures and interactions with surrounding solar wind structure(s), etc) will be examined in detail, with the goal of extracting common and telltale features, if any, of these CMEs that distinguish them from CMEs in a similar category.

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-10-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-07-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-04-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/14 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross-section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, J.; Richardson, I.; Webb, D. F.; Gopalswamy, N.; Huttunen, E.; Kasper, J.; Nitta, N.; Poomvises, W.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.;

Multivariate Statistical Models for Predicting Sediment Yields from Southern California Watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, Joseph E.; Cannon, Susan H.; Helsel, Dennis R.; Bandurraga, Mark

2009-01-01

Debris-retention basins in Southern California are frequently used to protect communities and infrastructure from the hazards of flooding and debris flow. Empirical models that predict sediment yields are used to determine the size of the basins. Such models have been developed using analyses of records of the amount of material removed from debris retention basins, associated rainfall amounts, measures of watershed characteristics, and wildfire extent and history. In this study we used multiple linear regression methods to develop two updated empirical models to predict sediment yields for watersheds located in Southern California. The models are based on both new and existing measures of volume of sediment removed from debris retention basins, measures of watershed morphology, and characterization of burn severity distributions for watersheds located in Ventura, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. The first model presented reflects conditions in watersheds located throughout the Transverse Ranges of Southern California and is based on volumes of sediment measured following single storm events with known rainfall conditions. The second model presented is specific to conditions in Ventura County watersheds and was developed using volumes of sediment measured following multiple storm events. To relate sediment volumes to triggering storm rainfall, a rainfall threshold was developed to identify storms likely to have caused sediment deposition. A measured volume of sediment deposited by numerous storms was parsed among the threshold-exceeding storms based on relative storm rainfall totals. The predictive strength of the two models developed here, and of previously-published models, was evaluated using a test dataset consisting of 65 volumes of sediment yields measured in Southern California. The evaluation indicated that the model developed using information from single storm events in the Transverse Ranges best predicted sediment yields for watersheds in San Bernardino, Los Angeles, and Ventura Counties. This model predicts sediment yield as a function of the peak 1-hour rainfall, the watershed area burned by the most recent fire (at all severities), the time since the most recent fire, watershed area, average gradient, and relief ratio. The model that reflects conditions specific to Ventura County watersheds consistently under-predicted sediment yields and is not recommended for application. Some previously-published models performed reasonably well, while others either under-predicted sediment yields or had a larger range of errors in the predicted sediment yields.

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-04-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England). We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long-term comparison of storm severity and also enables an assessment of how sea level rise is influencing return levels over time, which is important when considering long-term coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

Generation of a Catalogue of European Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varino, Filipa; Baptiste Granier, Jean; Bordoy, Roger; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Mitchell-Wallace, Kirsten; Souch, Claire

2016-04-01

The probability of multiple wind-storm events within a year is crucial to any (re)insurance company writing European wind business. Indeed, the volatility of losses is enhanced by the clustering of storms (cyclone families), as occurred in early 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke), December 1999 (Lothar, Martin) or December 2015 (Desmond, Eva, Frank), among others. In order to track winter extratropical cyclones, we use the maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa of the new-released long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from the ECMWF since the beginning of the 20th Century until 2010. We develop an automatic procedure to define events. We then quantify the severity of each storm using loss and meteorological indices at country and Europe-wide level. Validation against market losses for the period 1970-2010 is undertaken before considering the severity and frequency of European windstorms for the 110 years period.

The Role of Storm Time Electrodynamics in Suppressing the Equatorial Plasma Bubble Development in the Recovery Phase of a Geomagnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sripathi, S.; Banola, S.; Emperumal, K.; Suneel Kumar, B.; Radicella, Sandro M.

2018-03-01

We investigate the role of storm time electrodynamics in suppressing the equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) development using multi-instruments over India during a moderate geomagnetic storm that occurred on 2 October 2013 where Dst minimum reached -80 nT. This storm produced unique signatures in the equatorial ionosphere such that equatorial electrojet strength showed signatures of an abrupt increase of its strength to 150 nT and occurrence of episodes of counter electrojet events. During the main phase of the storm, the interplanetary magnetic field Bz is well correlated with the variations in the equatorial electrojet/counter electrojet suggesting the role of undershielding/overshielding electric fields of magnetospheric origin. Further, observations showed the presence of strong F3 layers at multiple times at multiple stations due to undershielding electric field. Interestingly, we observed simultaneous presence of F3 layers and suppression of EPBs in the dusk sector during the recovery phase. While strong EPBs were observed before and after the day of the geomagnetic storm, suppression of the EPBs on the storm day during "spread F season" is intriguing. Our further analysis using low-latitude station, Hyderabad, during the time of prereversal enhancement suggests that intense Esb layers were observed on the storm day but were absent/weak on quiet days. Based on these results, we suggest that the altitude/latitude variation of disturbance dynamo electric fields/disturbance winds may be responsible for simultaneous detection of F3 layers, occurrence of low-latitude Es layers, and suppression of EPBs during the storm day along the sunset terminator.

Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

Dynamic fuzzy modeling of storm water infiltration in urban fractured aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hong, Y.-S.; Rosen, Michael R.; Reeves, R.R.

2002-01-01

In an urban fractured-rock aquifer in the Mt. Eden area of Auckland, New Zealand, disposal of storm water is via "soakholes" drilled directly into the top of the fractured basalt rock. The dynamic response of the groundwater level due to the storm water infiltration shows characteristics of a strongly time-varying system. A dynamic fuzzy modeling approach, which is based on multiple local models that are weighted using fuzzy membership functions, has been developed to identify and predict groundwater level fluctuations caused by storm water infiltration. The dynamic fuzzy model is initialized by the fuzzy clustering algorithm and optimized by the gradient-descent algorithm in order to effectively derive the multiple local models-each of which is associated with a locally valid model that represents the groundwater level state as a response to different intensities of rainfall events. The results have shown that even if the number of fuzzy local models derived is small, the fuzzy modeling approach developed provides good prediction results despite the highly time-varying nature of this urban fractured-rock aquifer system. Further, it allows interpretable representations of the dynamic behavior of the groundwater system due to storm water infiltration.

Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: Propagation and Effects from the Sun to the Earth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

2017-12-01

From the list of 32 SSCs over the year 2002, we performed a multi-criteria analysis based on propagation time, velocity comparison, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves to associate them with solar sources, identify their causes in the interplanetary medium and then look at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment to them. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification in their trajectory have been examined using joint white light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The structures at L_1 after the 32 SSCs are regarded as Magnetic Clouds (MCs), ICMEs without a MC structure, Miscellaneous structures, CIRs/SIRs, and shock-only events. In terms of geoeffectivity, generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km.s-1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms. The geoeffective events trigger an increased and combined AKR and NTC wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere and a stronger response in the thermosphere.

Variability of tidal signals in the Brent Delta Front: New observations on the Rannoch Formation, northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaojie; Steel, Ronald J.; Ravnås, Rodmar; Jiang, Zaixing; Olariu, Cornel; Li, Zhiyang

2016-04-01

Detailed observations on the Rannoch Formation in several deep Viking Graben wells indicate that the 'classical' wave-dominated Brent delta-front shows coupled storm-tide processes. The tidal signals are of three types: I): alternations of thick cross-laminated sandstone and thin mud-draped sandstone, whereby double mud drapes are prominent but discretely distributed, II): a few tidal bundles within bottomsets and foresets of up to 10 cm-thick sets cross-strata, and III): dm-thick heterolithic lamination showing multiple, well-organized sand-mud couplets. During progradation of the Brent Delta, the Rannoch shoreline system passed upward from 1) a succession dominated by clean-water, storm-event sets and cosets frequently and preferentially interbedded with type I tidal beds, and occasional types II and III tidal deposits, toward 2) very clean storm-event beds less frequently separated by types II and III tidal beds, and then into 3) a thin interval showing muddier storm-event beds mainly alternating with type II tidal beds. It is likely that those variations in preservation bias of storm and tidal beds in each facies succession result from combined effects of 1) the frequency and duration of storms; 2) river discharge; and 3) the absolute and relative strength of tides. Tidal deposits are interpreted as inter-storm, fair-weather deposits, occurred preferentially in longer intermittent fair-weather condition and periods of lower river discharge, and well-pronounced in the distal-reach of delta-front. The formation and preservation of tidal signals between storm beds, indicate that the studied Rannoch Formation was most likely a storm-dominated, tide-influenced delta front 1) near the mouth of a large Brent river, where a significant tidal prism and high tidal range might be expected, and 2) in a setting where there were relatively high sedimentation rates associated with high local subsidence rates, so that the storm waves did not completely rework the inter-storm deposits. The documentation of the unconventional Rannoch Formation contributes to our understanding of mixed-energy coastal systems.

A Synoptic- and Planetary-Scale Analysis of Widespread North American Ice Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCray, C.; Gyakum, J. R.; Atallah, E.

2017-12-01

Freezing rain can have devastating impacts, particularly when it persists for many hours. Predicting the precise temperature stratification necessary for long duration freezing rain events remains an important forecast challenge. To better elucidate the conditions responsible for the most severe events, we concentrate on surface observations of long-duration (6 or more hours) freezing rain events over North America from 1979-2016. Furthermore, we analyze cases in which multiple stations observe long-duration events simultaneously. Following these cases over successive days allows us to generate maps of freezing rain "tracks." We then categorize recurring geographic patterns to examine the meteorological conditions leading to these events. While freezing rain is most frequently observed in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, long-duration events have affected areas as far south as the Gulf Coast. Notably, a disproportionately large number of very long duration (18 or more hours) events have occurred in the Southern Plains states relative to the climatological annual frequency of freezing rain there. Classification of individual cases shows that most of these very long duration events are associated with a recurring pattern which produces freezing rain along a southwest-northeast swath from Texas/Oklahoma into the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Storms classified within this pattern include the January 1998 and December 2013 ice storms. While this pattern is the most widespread, additional spatially extensive patterns occur. One of these areas extends from the Southern Plains eastward along the Gulf Coast to Georgia and the Carolinas. A third category of events extends from the Upper Midwest into the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. The expansive areal extent and long duration of these events make them especially problematic. An analysis of the planetary- to synoptic-scale settings responsible for these cases and the differences among individual storms is performed to provide forecasters with additional tools/insight towards the prediction of these damaging weather events.

EMIC wave events during the four QARBM challenge intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engebretson, M. J.; Posch, J. L.; Braun, D.; Li, W.; Angelopoulos, V.; Kellerman, A. C.; Kletzing, C.; Lessard, M.; Mann, I. R.; Tero, R.; Shiokawa, K.; Wygant, J. R.

2017-12-01

We present observations of EMIC waves from multiple data sources during the four GEM challenge events in 2013 selected by the GEM focus group on Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling: March 17-18 (Stormtime Enhancement), May 31-June 2 (Stormtime Dropout), September 19-20 (Non-storm Enhancement), and September 23-25 (Non-storm Dropout). Observations include EMIC wave data from the Van Allen Probes and THEMIS spacecraft in the inner magnetosphere and from several arrays of ground-based search coil magnetometers worldwide, as well as localized ring current proton precipitation data from the low-altitude POES spacecraft. Each of these data sets provides only limited spatial coverage, but their combination reveals consistent occurrence patterns, which are then used to evaluate the effectiveness of EMIC waves in causing dropouts of radiation belt electrons during these GEM events.

Precipitation-snowmelt timing and snowmelt augmentation of large peak flow events, western Cascades, Oregon

Treesearch

Keith Jennings; Julia A. Jones

2015-01-01

This study tested multiple hydrologic mechanisms to explain snowpack dynamics in extreme rain-on-snow floods, which occur widely in the temperate and polar regions. We examined 26, 10 day large storm events over the period 1992–2012 in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in western Oregon, using statistical analyses (regression, ANOVA, and wavelet coherence) of hourly...

[First flush effects of storm events of Baoxiang River in Lake Dianchi Watershed].

PubMed

Guo, Huai-Cheng; Xiang, Nan; Zhou, Feng; Wang, Yong-Hua; Li, Fa-Rong; Zhu, Xiang; Mao, Guo-Zhu; Yu, Shu-Xia; Li, Na; Sheng, Hu; Yang, Yong-Hui; He, Cheng-Jie; Wang, Cui-Yu

2013-04-01

To understand riverine process of non-point source effectively, first flush effects of storm events were investigated at Baoxiang River of Lake Dianchi Watershed. Three sampling stations were selected along Baoxiang River for observing the flow rate and pollutant concentrations of the first three storm events from June 2009 to August 2009. Net discharged volume, net discharged loading, and net event mean concentration (EMC(n)) were proposed with their calculation methods. According to the analysis of three storm events at three stations, the following results colcd be extracted: (1) the larger the percent of impervious land and population density were, the higher EMC(n) of TSS, TN, TP, permanganate index and their cumulative curves [M(V)] were along the river; (2) TSS, TP loadings as well as their M (V) were positively correlated to the storm intensity, while TN and permanganate index loadings were consistent with the total rainfall of each storm event, where the percent of NO3(-) -N in total nitrogen decreased gradually when the number of storm events increased; (3) compared to tradition EMC, EMC(n) was proven to be a better indicator to accurately uncover and magnify the differences in first flush effects of storm events among different stations or storm events.

Origin of particulate organic matter exported during storm events in a forested headwater catchment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeanneau, Laurent; Rowland, Richard D.; Inamdar, Shreeram P.

2016-04-01

Particulate organic matter (POM) plays an important biogeochemical role towards ecology, ecotoxicology and carbon cycle. Moreover POM within the fluvial suspended sediment load during infrequent high flows can comprise a larger portion of long-term flux than dissolved species. It is well documented that storm events that constituted only 10-20% of the year contributed to >80% of POC exports. But the origin and composition of POM transferred during those hot moments remained unclear. In order to improve our knowledge on this topic we explore the variability in storm event-transported sediments' POM content and source down a continuum of catchment drainage locations. Wetland, upland and forest O horizons, litter, river banks and bed sediments were analyzed for their content in organic C, isotopic (13C) and molecular (thermochemiolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry) fingerprints. The isotopic and molecular fingerprints recorded in suspended and deposited (differentiated into fine, medium and coarse particles) sediments sampled during different storm events down a continuum of catchment drainage locations (12 and 79 ha). This study highlights compositional differences between the catchment size (12 versus 79 ha), the particle size of deposited sediment (fine versus medium versus coarse) and the sampling time during a storm event (rising limb versus peak flow versus falling limb). Two sampling strategies were used. Suspended sediments sampled at a specific time during flood events allow evaluating changes along the hydrograph, while deposited sediments that integrate the entire event allow making comparisons with drainage scale. For deposited sediments, the proportion of OM coming from the endmembers wetland, litter and Forest O horizon decreases from the 12ha to the 79ha catchment, which exhibited a higher proportion of OM coming from stream bed sediment and river banks. For both catchments, from fine to coarse particles, the influence of stream bed sediments and river banks decreases while the influence of Forest O horizon increases. For suspended sediments, the evolution during storm events were opposite in the 12ha and the 79ha catchments. In the 12ha catchment, during the rising limb of the hydrograph, POM seems to be inherited from stream bed sediments and river banks, while from the rising limb to the peak flow, the influence of litter and/or wetland increases. This influence decreases during the falling limb. The opposite trend was observed in the 79ha catchment, with an increasing contribution of stream bed sediments to the OM exported during a storm event. What is the information to take away? First POM transferred in headwater catchments has multiple sources. Secondly, the combination of those sources is different along the size continuum of particles. Then, down a continuum of catchment drainage locations, the combination of sources changes both along the size continuum and during storm events. This information is critical for identifying the various drivers and mechanisms behind POM transport and for understanding the impacts of POM on aquatic metabolism and downstream water quality.

Solute Response To Arid-Climate Managed-River Flow During Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLean, B.; Shock, E.

2006-12-01

Storm pulses are widely used in unmanaged, temperate and subtropical river systems to resolve in-stream surface and subsurface flow components. Resulting catchment-scale hydrochemical mixing models yield insight into mechanisms of solute transport. Managed systems are far more complicated due to the human need for high quality water resources, which drives processes that are superimposed on most, if not all, of the unmanaged components. As an example, an increasingly large portion of the water supply for the Phoenix metropolitan area is derived from multiple surface water sources that are impounded, diverted and otherwise managed upstream from the urban core that consumes the water and produces anthropogenic impacts. During large storm events this managed system is perturbed towards natural behavior as it receives inputs from natural hydrologic pathways in addition to impervious surfaces and storm water drainage channels. Our goals in studying managed river systems during this critical transition state are to determine how the well- characterized behavior of natural systems break down as the system responds then returns to its managed state. Using storm events as perturbations we can contrast an arid managed system with the unmanaged system it approaches during the storm event. In the process, we can extract geochemical consequences specifically related to unknown urban components in the form of chemical fingerprints. The effects of river management on solute behavior were assessed by taking advantage of several anomalously heavy winter storm events in late 2004 and early 2005 using a rigorous sampling routine. Several hundred samples collected between January and October 2005 were analyzed for major ion, isotopic, and trace metal concentrations with 78 individual measurements for each sample. The data are used to resolve managed watershed processes, mechanisms of solute transport and river mixing from anthropogenic inputs. Our results show that concentrations of major solutes change slowly and are independent of discharge downstream from the dams on two major tributaries. This is indicative of reservoir release water. In addition, a third input is derived from the Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project canal system. Cross plots including concentrations of solutes such as nitrate and sulfate from downstream of the confluence indicate at least three end-member sources, as do Piper diagrams using major anion and cation data. Dynamic contributions from natural event water and urban inputs can be resolved from the slowly changing release water, and may dictate the short-term transport of pollutants during the storm-induced transition state.

Modeling the Severe Storm on St. Patrick's Day 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fok, M. C. H.; Buzulukova, N.; Perez, J. D.; Craven, J.

2015-12-01

A severe geomagnetic storm struck the magnetosphere on the St. Patrick's Day of 2015. The Dst index reached a minimum of -223 nT. Dazzling aurora were seen as far south as Oregon and Illinois. To understand the origins of this extreme event, we simulated the dynamics of energetic ions and electrons using the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model. We reproduced a number of observable signatures, such as extended ionosphere precipitation, multiple-peaks ring current seen by TWINS spacecraft, and relativistic electron enhancement during recovery seen by geosynchronous and Van Allen Probes satellites. We have performed several model runs with different input parameters and model setup to identify the physical processes responsible for the distinct features of this event.

Classification and evaluation of the documentary-recorded storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty (1392-1910), Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Chulsang; Park, Minkyu; Kim, Hyeon Jun; Choi, Juhee; Sin, Jiye; Jun, Changhyun

2015-01-01

In this study, the analysis of documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty, covering the entire period of 519 years from 1392 to 1910, was carried out. By applying various key words related to storm events, a total of 556 documentary records could be identified. The main objective of this study was to develop rules of classification for the documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty. The results were also compared with the rainfall data of the traditional Korean rain gauge, named Chukwooki, which are available from 1777 to 1910 (about 130 years). The analysis is organized as follows. First, the frequency of the documents, their length, comments about the size of the inundated area, the number of casualties, the number of property losses, and the size of the countermeasures, etc. were considered to determine the magnitude of the events. To this end, rules of classification of the storm events are developed. Cases in which the word 'disaster' was used along with detailed information about the casualties and property damages, were classified as high-level storm events. The high-level storm events were additionally sub-categorized into catastrophic, extreme, and severe events. Second, by applying the developed rules of classification, a total of 326 events were identified as high-level storm events during the 519 years of the Choson Dynasty. Among these high-level storm events, only 19 events were then classified as the catastrophic ones, 106 events as the extreme ones, and 201 events as the severe ones. The mean return period of these storm events was found to be about 30 years for the catastrophic events, 5 years for the extreme events, and 2-3 years for the severe events. Third, the classification results were verified considering the records of the traditional Korean rain gauge; it was found that the catastrophic events are strongly distinguished from other events with a mean total rainfall and a storm duration equal to 439.8 mm and 49.3 h, respectively. The return period of these catastrophic events was also estimated to be in the range 100-500 years.

Interannual Similarity in the Martian Atmosphere During the Dust Storm Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-01-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (approximately 25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Interannual similarity in the Martian atmosphere during the dust storm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinböhl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-06-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (˜25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Contrasting patterns of nutrient dynamics during different storm events in a semi-arid catchment of northern China.

PubMed

Du, Xinzhong; Li, Xuyong; Hao, Shaonan; Wang, Huiliang; Shen, Xiao

2014-01-01

Nutrient discharge during storm events is a critical pathway for nutrient export in semi-arid catchments. We investigated nutrient dynamics during three summer storms characterized by different rainfall magnitude in 2012 in a semi-arid catchment of northern China. The results showed that, in response to storm events, nutrient dynamics displayed big variation in temporal trends of nutrient concentration and in nutrient concentration-flow discharge relationships. Nutrient concentrations had broader fluctuations during an extreme storm than during lesser storms, whereas the concentration ranges of the a moderate storm were no broader than those of a smaller one. The different concentration fluctuations were caused by storm magnitude and intensity coupled with the antecedent rainfall amount and cumulative nutrients. Correlation coefficients between nutrient concentrations and flow discharge varied from positive to negative for the three different events. There were no consistent hysteresis effects for the three different events, and no hysteresis effects were observed for any of the variables during the moderate storm (E2). Our findings provide useful information for better understanding nutrient loss mechanisms during storm events in semi-arid areas of a monsoon climate region.

Storm flow export of metolachlor from a coastal plain watershed.

PubMed

Watts, D W; Novak, J M; Johnson, M H; Stone, K C

2000-03-01

During an 18-month (1994-1995) survey of the surface water in an Atlantic Coastal Plain watershed, metolachlor was most frequently detected during storm flow events. Therefore, a sampling procedure, focused on storm flow, was implemented in June of 1996. During 1996, three tropical cyclones made landfall within 150 km of the watershed. These storms, as well as several summer thunderstorms, produced six distinct storm flow events within the watershed. Metolachlor was detected leaving the watershed during each event. In early September, Hurricane Fran produced the largest storm flow event and accounted for the majority of the metolachlor exports. During the storm event triggered by Hurricane Fran, the highest daily average flow (7.5 m2 s-1) and highest concentration (5.1 micrograms L-1) ever measured at the watershed outlet were recorded. Storm flow exports leaving the watershed represented 0.1 g ha-1 or about 0.04% of active ingredient applied.

Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

2017-10-01

Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago.

PubMed

Mallela, J; Crabbe, M J C

2009-10-01

Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns, using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments, in order to understand how hurricanes, storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes, tropical storms and bleaching events, coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p=0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005-2006 bleaching event, coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n=6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago's marginal reef systems, albeit in low numbers.

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale and below.

Headwater Nutrient Concentration Patterns in Response to Storm Events Across Land Use Types using In Situ Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, A.; Wollheim, W. M.; Mulukutla, G. K.; Carey, R. O.; McDowell, W. H.

2012-12-01

Understanding the aquatic biogeochemical impacts of land use change and climate variability will require improved understanding of nutrient variability over temporal scales ranging from storms to seasons. New in situ sensor technology offers the prospect of efficient nutrient measurements over multiple time scales. We quantified nutrient flux patterns in response to storm events across seasons using in situ nutrient sensors deployed in headwater streams draining three land use types (forest, suburban, and agriculture) within the Lamprey River watershed, New Hampshire, between April-December 2012. We utilized two sensor suites, each consisting of a Satlantic Submersible Ultraviolet Nitrate Analyzer (NO3-N), Turner Designs C6 Multi-Sensor Platform (CDOM, Turbidity, Chl), Hydrolab MS5 (Dissolved Oxygen, pH), WET Labs Cycle P (PO4-P), and Hobo Water Level & Conductivity meters. Preliminary spring/summer comparisons at the suburban site suggest increased baseflow nitrate concentrations and decreased diurnal nitrate variability (~0.05 vs. 0.035 mg/L daily fluctuation) following leaf emergence in spring. Nitrate concentrations were diluted during storms. Hysteresis was evident, suggesting groundwater nitrate sources attributable to septic systems were diluted by surface runoff during spring storms. The agricultural stream showed similar but more extreme patterns of increasing baseflow nitrate during the summer (~2.4 to 4.1 mg/L) and dilution during storms. The compilation of a high-frequency dataset for headwater streams across seasons and land-use types will provide valuable insight into complex land use/water quality relationships in urbanizing watersheds.

Reconstructing Ion Spectra from Low-Altitude ENAs: Moderate to Large Storms.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LLera, K.; Goldstein, J.; McComas, D. J.; Valek, P. W.

2015-12-01

Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS) Energetic neutral atom (ENA) imagers regularly observe Low-altitude Emission (LAE) intensifications during geomagnetic storm intervals. Since LAEs are produced by the interaction between ions and the near-Earth exosphere (altitudes ~200-800 km), they are a global signature of how the ring current decays in response to solar wind conditions. In this "optically thick" region, an ENA readily becomes reionized, and an ion is readily neutralized. Therefore, emerging ENAs that contribute to the LAE signal (detectable several RE away) have undergone multiple charge exchange and electron stripping interactions. Accounting for the ~36 eV energy loss per interaction, we developed a model to quantify the total energy lost by emergent LAEs. The analytical tool is applied to an ensemble of moderate to large storms (including the recent 17 March and 23 June storms in 2015) to reconstruct the parent ion spectra from TWINS ENA images. We examine the ion spectra energy characteristics among the various storm events.

Potential predecessors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami — Sedimentary evidence of extreme wave events at Ban Bang Sak, SW Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brill, D.; Brückner, H.; Jankaew, K.; Kelletat, D.; Scheffers, A.; Scheffers, S.

2011-08-01

Where historical records are short and/or fragmentary, geological evidence is an important tool to reconstruct the recurrence rate of extreme wave events (tsunamis and/or storms). This is particularly true for those coastal zones around the Indian Ocean, where predecessors of similar magnitude as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) have not been reported by written sources. In this context, the sedimentary record of the Holocene coastal plain of Ban Bang Sak (Phang-nga province, Thailand) provides evidence of multiple prehistoric coastal flooding events in the form of allochthonous sand beds, which were radiocarbon dated to 700-500, 1350-1180, and younger than 2000 cal BP. The layers were assigned to high-energy events of marine origin, which could be either tsunamis or tropical storms, by means of granulometry, geochemistry, vertical structure, and macrofossil content. Although no landfall of a strong storm has occurred in the last 150 years of meteorological data recording, cyclones cannot be ruled out for the last centuries and millennia. However, discrimination between tsunami and storm origin was mainly based on the comparison of the palaeoevent beds with the local deposit of the IOT, which revealed similar characteristics in regard to spatial extend and sediment properties. Furthermore, the youngest palaeoevent correlates with contemporaneous deposits from Thailand and more distant coasts. Hence, we relate it to a basin wide tsunami which took place 700-500 years ago. For the sediments of older extreme events, deposited between 2000 and 1180 cal BP, we found no unambiguous counterparts at other sites; nevertheless, at least for now, they are treated as tsunami candidates.

Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics.

PubMed

Madarang, Krish J; Kang, Joo-Hyon

2014-06-01

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days (ADD), have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid (TSS) discharge loads and event mean concentrations (EMC) were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R(2) and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data. Copyright © 2014 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

PubMed Central

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans. PMID:26699461

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Long-term characterization of residential runoff and assessing potential surrogates of fecal indicator organisms.

PubMed

Reano, Dane C; Haver, Darren L; Oki, Lorence R; Yates, Marylynn V

2015-05-01

Investigations into the microbiological impacts of urban runoff on receiving water bodies, especially during storm conditions, have yielded general paradigms that influence runoff abatement and control management strategies. To determine whether these trends are present in other runoff sources, the physical, chemical, and microbiological components of residential runoff from eight neighborhoods in Northern and Southern California were characterized over the course of five years. Sampling occurred regularly and during storm events, resulting in 833 data sets. Analysis of runoff data assisted in characterizing residential runoff, elucidating differences between dry and storm conditions, and identifying surrogates capable of assessing microbiological quality. Results indicate that although microbial loading increases during storm events similar to urban runoff, annual microbial loading in these study sites principally occurs during dry conditions (24% storm, 76% dry). Generated artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models assessed surrogate performance by accurately predicting Escherichia coli concentrations from validation data sets (R(2) = 0.74 and 0.77, respectively), but required input from other fecal indicator organism (FIO) variables to maintain performance (R(2) = 0.27 and 0.18, respectively, without FIO). This long-term analysis of residential runoff highlights characteristics distinct from urban runoff and establishes necessary variables for determining microbiological quality, thus better informing future management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

PubMed

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-05

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Storm Observations of Persistent Three-Dimensional Shoreline Morphology and Bathymetry Along a Geologically Influenced Shoreface Using X-Band Radar (BASIR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodie, K. L.; McNinch, J. E.

2008-12-01

Accurate predictions of shoreline response to storms are contingent upon coastal-morphodynamic models effectively synthesizing the complex evolving relationships between beach topography, sandbar morphology, nearshore bathymetry, underlying geology, and the nearshore wave-field during storm events. Analysis of "pre" and "post" storm data sets have led to a common theory for event response of the nearshore system: pre-storm three-dimensional bar and shoreline configurations shift to two-dimensional, linear forms post- storm. A lack of data during storms has unfortunately left a gap in our knowledge of how the system explicitly changes during the storm event. This work presents daily observations of the beach and nearshore during high-energy storm events over a spatially extensive field site (order of magnitude: 10 km) using Bar and Swash Imaging Radar (BASIR), a mobile x-band radar system. The field site contains a complexity of features including shore-oblique bars and troughs, heterogeneous sediment, and an erosional hotspot. BASIR data provide observations of the evolution of shoreline and bar morphology, as well as nearshore bathymetry, throughout the storm events. Nearshore bathymetry is calculated using a bathymetry inversion from radar- derived wave celerity measurements. Preliminary results show a relatively stable but non-linear shore-parallel bar and a non-linear shoreline with megacusp and embayment features (order of magnitude: 1 km) that are enhanced during the wave events. Both the shoreline and shore-parallel bar undulate at a similar spatial frequency to the nearshore shore- oblique bar-field. Large-scale shore-oblique bars and troughs remain relatively static in position and morphology throughout the storm events. The persistence of a three-dimensional shoreline, shore-parallel bar, and large-scale shore-oblique bars and troughs, contradicts the idea of event-driven shifts to two- dimensional morphology and suggests that beach and nearshore response to storms may be location specific. We hypothesize that the influence of underlying geology, defined by (1) the introduction of heterogeneous sediment and (2) the possible creation of shore-oblique bars and troughs in the nearshore, may be responsible for the persistence of three-dimensional forms and the associated shoreline hotspots during storm events.

Variability of dissolved organic carbon in precipitation during storms at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Grimm, Jeffrey W.; Miller, Matthew P.; DeWalle, David R.; Davis, Kenneth J.; Kaye, Margot W.

2017-01-01

Organic compounds are removed from the atmosphere and deposited to the earth's surface via precipitation. In this study, we quantified variations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in precipitation during storm events at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, a forested watershed in central Pennsylvania (USA). Precipitation samples were collected consecutively throughout the storm during 13 events, which spanned a range of seasons and synoptic meteorological conditions, including a hurricane. Further, we explored factors that affect the temporal variability by considering relationships of DOC in precipitation with atmospheric and storm characteristics. Concentrations and chemical composition of DOC changed considerably during storms, with the magnitude of change within individual events being comparable or higher than the range of variation in average event composition among events. While some previous studies observed that concentrations of other elements in precipitation typically decrease over the course of individual storm events, results of this study show that DOC concentrations in precipitation are highly variable. During most storm events concentrations decreased over time, possibly as a result of washing out of the below-cloud atmosphere. However, increasing concentrations that were observed in the later stages of some storm events highlight that DOC removal with precipitation is not merely a dilution response. Increases in DOC during events could result from advection of air masses, local emissions during breaks in precipitation, or chemical transformations in the atmosphere that enhance solubility of organic carbon compounds. This work advances understanding of processes occurring during storms that are relevant to studies of atmospheric chemistry, carbon cycling, and ecosystem responses.

Intra-storm variability in microbial partitioning and microbial loading rates.

PubMed

Krometis, Leigh-Anne H; Characklis, Gregory W; Simmons, Otto D; Dilts, Mackenzie J; Likirdopulos, Christina A; Sobsey, Mark D

2007-01-01

Association with particles in the water column can have a significant impact on microbial fate and transport. This study analyzed multiple stormwater samples taken throughout the duration of three separate storms (at two different sites) to evaluate the fraction of microbes partitioning to denser "settleable" particles and to examine how partitioning behavior varied over the course of a storm. Intra-storm sampling also allowed for estimates of microbial loading rates (both total and particle-associated) and cumulative storm-induced microbial load. Five different indicator organisms were examined, with the fraction of microbes associated with settleable particles assessed via a calibrated centrifugation method. Partitioning behavior varied across microorganism type, with an average of 40% of fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, and enterococci associating with settleable particles, compared to approximately 65% of Clostridium perfringens spores and only 13% of total coliphage. Partitioning remained fairly constant for each type of organism throughout storm events. Nonetheless, higher concentrations of both settleable particles and microbes entering the water column soon after the onset of a storm led to higher loading rates of settleable microbes in the storm's earliest stages, a trend that could have important implications for the design of stormwater management structures (e.g., detention basins). Estimates of cumulative storm-induced microbial loading suggested that one day's worth of storm loading can be the equivalent of months, or even years, of dry-weather loading.

Examining the causes of a devastating debris flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2014-08-01

Storm-triggered landslides cause loss of life, property damage, and landscape alterations. For instance, the remnants of Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused 109 deaths in central Virginia, after 600 millimeters of rain fell in mountainous terrain in 6 hours. More recently, on 8 August 2010, a rainstorm-induced landslide devastated the Chinese county of Zhouqu, causing more than 1000 deaths. A new modeling study by Ren examines the multiple factors, natural and human caused, that came together to produce this event. Three things contribute to storm-triggered landslides: geological condition, surface loading and vegetation roots, and extreme precipitation.

High Impact Weather Associated with a Predecessor Rain Event Over Misawa Air Base

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

1  1.  Tropical Storms and Predecessor Rain Events...34  B.  MISAWA STORM EVENT ..........................................................................45  C.  NAGASAKI...through 1200 UTC 24 September 2011 (green line), shaded rain events PRE( STORM ) on left(right) with max 24 h rain period shaded in red (After http

Turbidity dynamics during spring storm events in an urban headwater river system: the Upper Tame, West Midlands, UK.

PubMed

Lawler, D M; Petts, G E; Foster, I D L; Harper, S

2006-05-01

Turbidity is an important water quality variable, through its relation to light suppression, BOD impact, sediment-associated contaminant transport, and suspended sediment effects on organisms and habitats. Yet few published field investigations of wet-weather turbidity dynamics, through several individual and sequenced rainstorms in extremely urbanised headwater basins, have emerged. This paper aims to address this gap through a turbidity analysis of multiple storm events in spring 2001 in an urban headwater basin (57 km2) of the River Tame, central England, the most urbanised basin for its size in the UK ( approximately 42%). Data were collected at 15-min frequency at automated monitoring stations for rainfall, streamflow and six water quality variables (turbidity, EC, temperature, DO, pH, ammonia). Disturbance experiments also allowed estimates of bed sediment storage to be obtained. Six important and unusual features of the storm event turbidity response were apparent: (1) sluggish early turbidity response, followed by a turbidity 'rush'; (2) quasi-coincident flow and turbidity peaks; (3) anti-clockwise hysteresis in the discharge-turbidity relationship on all but one event, resulting from Falling-LImb Turbidity Extensions (FLITEs); (4) increases in peak turbidity levels through storm sequences; (5) initial micro-pulses (IMP) in turbidity; and (6) secondary turbidity peaks (STP) or 'turbidity shoulders' (TS). These features provided very little evidence of a true 'first-flush' effect: instead, substantial suspended solids transport continued right through the flow recessions, and little storm-event sediment exhaustion was evident. A new, dimensionless, hysteresis index, HI(mid), is developed to quantify the magnitude and direction of hysteresis in a simple, clear, direct and intuitive manner. This allowed the degree of departure from the classic 'first-flush', clockwise hysteresis models to be assessed. Of the 15 turbidity events considered, 10 coincided with ammonia spikes of up to 6.25 mg l(-1) at Water Orton (the downstream station): this suggests that spills from combined sewer overflows (CSO) or waste water treatment works (WwTWs) are significant in the throughput of turbid waters here. Substantial ammonia peaks related most strongly to total storm rainfall receipt, of four rainfall variables considered, and significant ammonia peaks were generated even from low-magnitude storms (rainfall totals <4 mm), indicating that spills are a frequent occurrence. Local bed sediment stores appear to be limited, suggesting that other distal sediment sources, such as road networks and old mineworkings are possibly more important. Biofilms may also play a part in delaying sediment release until late in the hydrograph, and in suppressing late spring turbidity levels. Existing first-flush models appear to be an oversimplification here. Such urban headwater basin responses can provide useful insights into the generation of contaminant waves, and offer vital early-warning systems for pollution events propagating downstream.

Watershed-based sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban storm water.

PubMed

Stein, Eric D; Tiefenthaler, Liesl L; Schiff, Kenneth

2006-02-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are carcinogenic and mutagenic compounds, ubiquitous in the air and water of urban environments, and have been shown to accumulate in coastal estuarine and marine sediments. Although previous studies have documented concentrations and loads of PAHs in urban runoff, little is known about the sources and temporal patterns of PAH loading from storm water. This study characterized the sources and temporal patterns of PAHs in urban storm water by analyzing PAH concentrations and loads from a range of homogeneous land use sites and in-river mass emission sites throughout the greater Los Angeles, California, USA, region. Samples were collected at 30- to 60-min intervals over the course of a storm during multiple storm events over a four-year period in order to investigate PAH sources and inter- and intrastorm patterns in loading. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon storm fluxes ranged from 1.3 g/km2 for the largely undeveloped Arroyo Sequit watershed to 223.7 g/km2 for the highly urbanized Verdugo Wash watershed, with average storm fluxes being 46 times higher in developed versus undeveloped watersheds. Early-season storms repeatedly produced substantially higher loads than comparably sized late-season storms. Within individual storms, PAHs exhibited a moderate first flush with between 30 and 60% of the total PAH load being discharged in the first 20% of the storm volume. The relative distribution of individual PAHs demonstrated a consistent predominance of high-molecular-weight compounds indicative of pyrogenic sources.

Operational Impact of Data Collected from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft During SHOUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; Sippel, J.; Cucurull, L.; Aksoy, A.; Kren, A.; Christophersen, H.; Black, P.

2017-12-01

The primary scientific goal of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project was to determine the potential utility of observations from high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems such as the Global Hawk (GH) aircraft to improve operational forecasts of high-impact weather events or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are among the most potentially destructive high-impact weather events and pose a major forecasting challenge to NOAA. Major winter storms over the Pacific Ocean, including atmospheric river events, which make landfall and bring strong winds and extreme precipitation to the West Coast and Alaska are also important to forecast accurately because of their societal impact in those parts of the country. In response, the SHOUT project supported three field campaigns with the GH aircraft and dedicated data impact studies exploring the potential for the real-time data from the aircraft to improve the forecasting of both tropical cyclones and landfalling Pacific storms. Dropsonde observations from the GH aircraft were assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. The results from several diverse but complementary studies consistently demonstrated significant positive forecast benefits spanning the regional and global models. Forecast skill improvements within HWRF reached up to about 9% for track and 14% for intensity. Within GFS, track skill improvements for multi-storm averages exceeded 10% and improvements for individual storms reached over 20% depending on forecast lead time. Forecasted precipitation was also improved. Impacts for Pacific winter storms were smaller but still positive. The results are highly encouraging and support the potential for operational utilization of data from a platform like the GH. This presentation summarizes the observations collected and highlights the multiple impact studies completed.

East Asian observations of low-latitude aurora during the Carrington magnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Isobe, Hiroaki; Kataoka, Ryuho; Ebihara, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Shibata, Kazunari

2016-12-01

A magnetic storm around 1859 September 2, caused by a so-called Carrington flare, was the most intense in the history of modern scientific observations, and hence is considered to be a benchmark event concerning space weather. The magnetic storm caused worldwide observations of auroras, even at very low latitudes, such as Hawaii, Panama, or Santiago. Available magnetic-field measurements at Bombay, India, showed two peaks: the main was the Carrington event, which occurred in day time in East Asia; a second storm after the Carrington event occurred at night in East Asia. In this paper, we present results from surveys of aurora records in East Asia, which provide new information concerning the aurora activity of this important event. We found some new East Asian records of low-latitude aurora observations caused by a storm which occurred after the Carrington event. The size of the aurora belt of the second peak of the Carrington magnetic storm was even wider than that of usual low-latitude aurora events.

Observations of Two Sprite-Producing Storms in Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.; Lyons, Walter A.; Cummer, Steven A.; Fuchs, Brody R.; Dolan, Brenda; Rutledge, Steven A.; Krehbiel, Paul; Rison, William; Stanley, Mark; Ashcraft, Thomas

2016-01-01

Two sprite-producing thunderstorms were observed on 8 and 25 June 2012 in northeastern Colorado by a combination of low-light cameras, a lightning mapping array, polarimetric and Doppler radars, the National Lightning Detection Network, and charge moment change measurements. The 8 June event evolved from a tornadic hailstorm to a larger multicellular system that produced 21 observed positive sprites in 2 h. The majority of sprites occurred during a lull in convective strength, as measured by total flash rate, flash energy, and radar echo volume. Mean flash area spiked multiple times during this period; however, total flash rates still exceeded 60 min(sup 1), and portions of the storm featured a complex anomalous charge structure, with midlevel positive charge near 20degC. The storm produced predominantly positive cloud-to-ground lightning. All sprite-parent flashes occurred on the northeastern flank of the storm, where strong westerly upper level flow was consistent with advection of charged precipitation away from convection, providing a pathway for stratiform lightning. The 25 June event was another multicellular hailstorm with an anomalous charge structure that produced 26 positive sprites in less than 1 h. The sprites again occurred during a convective lull, with relatively weaker reflectivity and lower total flash rate but relatively larger mean flash area. However, all sprite parents occurred in or near convection and tapped charge layers in adjacent anvil cloud. The results demonstrate the sprite production by convective ground strokes in anomalously charged storms and also indicate that sprite production and convective vigor are inversely related in mature storms.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. Formore » example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.« less

Evaluation of the impact of storm event inputs on levels of gross primary production and respiration in a drinking water reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samal, N. R.; Pierson, D. C.; Staehr, P. A.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Smith, D. G.

2013-12-01

Episodic inputs of dissolved and particulate material during storm events can have important effects on lake and reservoir ecosystem function and also impact reservoir drinking water quality. We evaluate the impacts of storm events using vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, conductivity and chlorophyll automatically collected at 6 hour intervals in Ashokan Reservoir, which is a part of the New York City drinking water supply. Storm driven inputs to the reservoir periodically result in large input of suspended sediments that result in reservoir turbidity levels exceeding 25 NTU, and substantial reductions in the euphotic depth. Dissolved materials associated with these same storms would be expected to stimulate bacterial production. This study involves the use of a conceptual model to calculate depth specific estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R) using three years of data that included 777 events that increased reservoir turbidity levels to over 25 NTU. Using data from before, during and after storm events, we examine how the balance between GPP and R is influenced by storm related increases in turbidity and dissolved organic matter, which would in turn influence light attenuation and bacterial production. Key words: metabolism, primary production, GPP, respiration, euphotic depth, storm event, reservoir

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Science as a foundation for discussing, recognizing and mitigating storm-disaster vulnerabilities in mountain and downstream communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kauneckis, D. L.; Cox, D. A.; Albano, C.; Welborn, T.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have historically caused ~80% of the most extreme winter storms and largest floods in California and parts of northwestern Nevada. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme-storm scenario to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to explore and mitigate potential impacts. The scenario was constructed by concatenating two historical AR sequences and quantified by simulating them using a regional-weather model nested within global weather fields, resulting in a climatologically plausible 23-day storm sequence. The ARkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six meetings with over 300 participants from local agencies, first-responders and local communities, each meeting having a different geographic or sectoral focus. These stakeholder meetings and an 18-question survey identified a wide range of social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs to prepare and mitigate consequenses, and proactive measures to minimize impacts. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human environments by impeding emergency response efforts. Natural resource impacts of greatest concern include flooding, impacts to water quality, spread and establishment of invasive species, and interactions with other disturbance types (e.g., fire, landslides). Science needs include improved monitoring and models to facilitate better prediction and response, real-time and forecast inundation mapping to understand flood risks, and vulnerability assessments related to geomorphic hazards and water quality impacts. Results from this effort highlight several opportunities for increasing the resilience of communities and the environment to extreme storm events. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a "tabletop" emergency-response exercise with over 120 participants in March 2014, as well as reports back to the community including specific recommendations for increasing preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience to extreme winter storm events.

Deconstructing the Effects of Flow on DOC, Nitrate, and Major Ion Interactions Using a High-Frequency Aquatic Sensor Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, L. E.; Shattuck, M. D.; Snyder, L. E.; Potter, J. D.; McDowell, W. H.

2017-12-01

Streams provide a physical linkage between land and downstream river networks, delivering solutes derived from multiple catchment sources. We analyzed high-frequency time series of stream solutes to characterize the timing and magnitude of major ion, nutrient, and organic matter transport over event, seasonal, and annual timescales as well as to assess whether nitrate (NO3-) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport are coupled in catchments, which would be expected if they are subject to similar biogeochemical controls throughout the watershed. Our data set includes in situ observations of NO3-, fluorescent dissolved organic matter (DOC proxy), and specific conductance spanning 2-4 years in 10 streams and rivers across New Hampshire, including observations of nearly 700 individual hydrologic events. We found a positive response of NO3- and DOC to flow in forested streams, but watershed development led to a negative relationship between NO3- and discharge, and thus a decoupling of the overall NO3- and DOC responses to flow. On event and seasonal timescales, NO3- and DOC consistently displayed different behaviors. For example, in several streams, FDOM yield was greatest during summer storms while NO3- yield was greatest during winter storms. Most streams had generalizable storm NO3- and DOC responses, but differences in the timing of NO3- and DOC transport suggest different catchment sources. Further, certain events, including rain-on-snow and summer storms following dry antecedent conditions, yielded disproportionate NO3- responses. High-frequency data allow for increased understanding of the processes controlling solute variability and will help reveal their responses to changing climatic regimes.

Simulation of quantity and quality of storm runoff for urban catchments in Fresno, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, J.R.; Smith, P.E.

1988-01-01

Rainfall-runoff models were developed for a multiple-dwelling residential catchment (2 applications), a single-dwelling residential catchment, and a commercial catchment in Fresno, California, using the U.S. Geological Survey Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M-II). A runoff-quality model also was developed at the commercial catchment using the Survey 's Multiple-Event Urban Runoff Quality model (DR3M-qual). The purpose of this study was: (1) to demonstrate the capabilites of the two models for use in designing storm drains, estimating the frequency of storm runoff loads, and evaluating the effectiveness of street sweeping on an urban drainage catchment; and (2) to determine the simulation accuracies of these models. Simulation errors of the two models were summarized as the median absolute deviation in percent (mad) between measured and simulated values. Calibration and verification mad errors for runoff volumes and peak discharges ranged from 14 to 20%. The estimated annual storm-runoff loads, in pounds/acre of effective impervious area, that could occur once every hundred years at the commercial catchment was 95 for dissolved solids, 1.6 for the dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, 0.31 for total recoverable lead, and 120 for suspended sediment. Calibration and verification mad errors for the above constituents ranged from 11 to 54%. (USGS)

Hydrometeorological application of an extratropical cyclone classification scheme in the southern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senkbeil, J. C.; Brommer, D. M.; Comstock, I. J.; Loyd, T.

2012-07-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in the southern United States are often overlooked when compared with tropical cyclones in the region and ETCs in the northern United States. Although southern ETCs are significant weather events, there is currently not an operational scheme used for identifying and discussing these nameless storms. In this research, we classified 84 ETCs (1970-2009). We manually identified five distinct formation regions and seven unique ETC types using statistical classification. Statistical classification employed the use of principal components analysis and two methods of cluster analysis. Both manual and statistical storm types generally showed positive (negative) relationships with El Niño (La Niña). Manual storm types displayed precipitation swaths consistent with discrete storm tracks which further legitimizes the existence of multiple modes of southern ETCs. Statistical storm types also displayed unique precipitation intensity swaths, but these swaths were less indicative of track location. It is hoped that by classifying southern ETCs into types, that forecasters, hydrologists, and broadcast meteorologists might be able to better anticipate projected amounts of precipitation at their locations.

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird

PubMed Central

Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

2015-01-01

Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985–2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change. PMID:25691959

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

2015-01-01

Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

Surge Driven Return Flow Results in Deposition of Coarse Grain Horizons Archiving a 4000 Year Record of Extreme Storm Events, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maio, C. V.; Donnelly, J. P.; Sullivan, R.; Weidman, C. R.; Sheremet, V.

2014-12-01

The brevity of the instrumental record and lack of detailed historical accounts is a limiting factor in our understanding of the relationship between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events. This study applied paleotempestologic and hydrographic methods to identify the mechanisms of storm-induced coarse grain deposition and reconstruct a late Holocene storm record within Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts. Three sediment cores (6.0 m, 8.4 m, and 8.2 m) were collected in 3 m of water using a vibracore system. Grain sizes were measured along core to identify coarse grain anomalies that serve as a proxy for past storm events. An historical age model (1620-2011 AD) was developed based on Pb pollution chronomarkers derived from X-Ray Florescence bulk Pb data, equating to a sedimentation rate of 8-8.3 mm/yr (R2 = 0.99). A long-term (4000 to 275 years before present) sedimentation rate of 1.1-1.4 mm/yr (R2 = 0.89) was calculated based on twenty-four continuous flow atomic mass spectrometry 14C ages of marine bivalves. To determine hydrographic conditions within the embayment during storm events current meters and tide gauges were deployed during Hurricane Irene (2011) which measured a storm surge of 88 cm above mean sea level. The buildup of storm water against the landward shoreline resulted in a measured 10 cm/s seaward moving bottom current capable of transporting coarse sand eroded from the adjacent shoreface into the coring site. Modeled surges for eleven modern and historic storm events ranged in height from 0.37 m (2011) to 3.72 m (1635) above mean high water. The WAQ1, WAQ2, and WAQ3 cores recorded a total of 89, 139, and 137 positive anomalies that exceeded the lower threshold and 15, 34, and 12 that exceeded the upper threshold respectively. Events recorded during the historic period coincide with documented storm events. The mean frequency within the three cores applying the lower threshold was 2.6 events per century, while applying the upper threshold was 0.44 events per century. The study has identified a previously understudied transport mechanism for the formation of storm-induced coarse grain horizons and highlighted some of the challenges to utilizing shallow water embayments as sites for storm reconstructions.

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cammarata, Michael

2004-01-01

Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven; Cammarata, Michael

2003-01-01

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

Treatment performance of a constructed wetland during storm and non-storm events in Korea.

PubMed

Maniquiz, M C; Lee, S Y; Choi, J Y; Jeong, S M; Kim, L H

2012-01-01

The efficiency of a free water surface flow constructed wetland (CW) in treating agricultural discharges from stream was investigated during storm and non-storm events between April and December, 2009. Physico-chemical and water quality constituents were monitored at five sampling locations along the flow path of the CW. The greatest reduction in pollutant concentration was observed after passing the sedimentation zone at approximately 4% fractional distance from the inflow. The inflow hydraulic loading, flow rates and pollutant concentrations were significantly higher and variable during storm events than non-storm (baseflow) condition (p <0.001) that resulted to an increase in the average pollutant removal efficiencies by 10 to 35%. The highest removal percentages were attained for phosphate (51 ± 22%), ammonium (44 ± 21%) and phosphorus (38 ± 19%) while nitrate was least effectively retained by the system with only 25 ± 17% removal during non-storm events. The efficiency of the system was most favorable when the temperature was above 15 °C (i.e., almost year-round except the winter months) and during storm events. Overall, the outflow water quality was better than the inflow water quality signifying the potential of the constructed wetland as a treatment system and capability of improving the stream water quality.

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

Water quality of storm runoff and comparison of procedures for estimating storm-runoff loads, volume, event-mean concentrations, and the mean load for a storm for selected properties and constituents for Colorado Springs, southeastern Colorado, 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Von Guerard, Paul; Weiss, W.B.

1995-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that municipalities that have a population of 100,000 or greater obtain National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits to characterize the quality of their storm runoff. In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Springs City Engineering Division, began a study to characterize the water quality of storm runoff and to evaluate procedures for the estimation of storm-runoff loads, volume and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents. Precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data were collected during 1992 at five sites in Colorado Springs. Thirty-five samples were collected, seven at each of the five sites. At each site, three samples were collected for permitting purposes; two of the samples were collected during rainfall runoff, and one sample was collected during snowmelt runoff. Four additional samples were collected at each site to obtain a large enough sample size to estimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents using linear-regression procedures developed using data from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP). Storm-water samples were analyzed for as many as 186 properties and constituents. The constituents measured include total-recoverable metals, vola-tile-organic compounds, acid-base/neutral organic compounds, and pesticides. Storm runoff sampled had large concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand. Chemical oxygen demand ranged from 100 to 830 milligrams per liter, and 5.-day biochemical oxygen demand ranged from 14 to 260 milligrams per liter. Total-organic carbon concentrations ranged from 18 to 240 milligrams per liter. The total-recoverable metals lead and zinc had the largest concentrations of the total-recoverable metals analyzed. Concentrations of lead ranged from 23 to 350 micrograms per liter, and concentrations of zinc ranged from 110 to 1,400 micrograms per liter. The data for 30 storms representing rainfall runoff from 5 drainage basins were used to develop single-storm local-regression models. The response variables, storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations were modeled using explanatory variables for climatic, physical, and land-use characteristics. The r2 for models that use ordinary least-squares regression ranged from 0.57 to 0.86 for storm-runoff loads and volume and from 0.25 to 0.63 for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Except for cadmium, standard errors of estimate ranged from 43 to 115 percent for storm- runoff loads and volume and from 35 to 66 percent for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Eleven of the 30 concentrations collected during rainfall runoff for total-recoverable cadmium were censored (less than) concentrations. Ordinary least-squares regression should not be used with censored data; however, censored data can be included with uncensored data using tobit regression. Standard errors of estimate for storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration for total-recoverable cadmium, computed using tobit regression, are 247 and 171 percent. Estimates from single-storm regional-regression models, developed from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program data base, were compared with observed storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations determined from samples collected in the study area. Single-storm regional-regression models tended to overestimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean con-centrations. Therefore, single-storm local- and regional-regression models were combined using model-adjustment procedures to take advantage of the strengths of both models while minimizing the deficiencies of each model. Procedures were used to develop single-stormregression equations that were adjusted using local data and estimates from single-storm regional-regression equations. Single-storm regression models developed using model- adjustment proce

Characteristics of storms driving wave-induced seafloor mobility on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalyander, P. Soupy; Butman, Bradford

2015-01-01

This study investigates the relationship between spatial and temporal patterns of wave-driven sediment mobility events on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf and the characteristics of the storms responsible for them. Mobility events, defined as seafloor wave stress exceedance of the critical stress of 0.35 mm diameter sand (0.2160 Pa) for 12 or more hours, were identified from surface wave observations at National Data Buoy Center buoys in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) over the period of 1997-2007. In water depths ranging from 36-48 m, there were 4-9 mobility events/year of 1-2 days duration. Integrated wave stress during events (IWAVES) was used as a combined metric of wave-driven mobility intensity and duration. In the MAB, over 67% of IWAVES was caused by extratropical storms, while in the SAB, greater than 66% of IWAVES was caused by tropical storms. On average, mobility events were caused by waves generated by storms located 800+ km away. Far-field hurricanes generated swell 2-4 days before the waves caused mobility on the shelf. Throughout most of the SAB, mobility events were driven by storms to the south, east, and west. In the MAB and near Cape Hatteras, winds from more northerly storms and low-pressure extratropical systems in the mid-western U.S. also drove mobility events. Waves generated by storms off the SAB generated mobility events along the entire U.S. East Coast shelf north to Cape Cod, while Cape Hatteras shielded the SAB area from swell originating to the north offshore of the MAB.

Annual Report: 2010-2011 Storm Season Sampling For NON-DRY DOCK STORMWATER MONITORING FOR PUGET SOUND NAVAL SHIPYARD, BREMERTON, WA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandenberger, Jill M.; Metallo, David; Johnston, Robert K.

2012-09-01

This interim report summarizes the stormwater monitoring conducted for non-dry dock outfalls in both the confined industrial area and the residential areas of Naval Base Kitsap within the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (referred to as the Shipyard). This includes the collection, analyses, and descriptive statistics for stormwater sampling conducted from November 2010 through April 2011. Seven stormwater basins within the Shipyard were sampled during at least three storm events to characterize non-dry dock stormwater discharges at selected stormwater drains located within the facility. This serves as the Phase I component of the project and Phase II is planned for themore » 2011-2012 storm season. These data will assist the Navy, USEPA, Ecology and other stakeholders in understanding the nature and condition of stormwater discharges from the Shipyard and inform the permitting process for new outfall discharges. The data from Phase I was compiled with current stormwater data available from the Shipyard, Sinclair/Dyes Inlet watershed, and Puget Sound in order to support technical investigations for the Draft NPDES permit. The permit would require storm event sampling at selected stormwater drains located within the Shipyard. However, the data must be considered on multiple scales to truly understand potential impairments to beneficial uses within Sinclair and Dyes Inlets.« less

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

2015-04-01

The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

The Geoeffectiveness of ICMEs from 1996 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, C.; Chi, Y.; Wang, Y.; Wang, S.; Ye, P.

2015-12-01

In a previous study (Chi et al. (2015)), we have established interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) catalogue in the near earth solar wind from 1996 to 2013. ICMEs are the predominant drivers of intense geomagnetic storms. In this paper we study the geoeffectiveness of ICMEs based on the ICME catalogue and the Dst indices the geoeffectiveness of ICMEs during 1996-2013. Based on the different in situ observation signatures, all ICMEs (338 events) are divided into three types of: isolated ICMEs (I-ICMEs), multiple ICMEs (M-ICMEs) and shock-embedded ICMEs (S-ICMEs). We find that about 58% of ICMEs caused geomagnetic storms with Dst_min <-30nT. Meanwhile, about 21% of ICMEs caused intense geomagnetic storms and almost all the intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the ICMEs. It also find that the south component of the magnetic field (Bs), the solar wind velocity (V) and the dawn-dust electric field Ey=VxBs are most important parameters in determine the geoeffectiveness of the ICMEs. We further get the critical values of these parameters of the ICMEs which can be used to determine whether a ICME can cause a geomagnetic storm. During solar cycle 24th, there are extremely low number of geomagnetic storms by the reason that the number of strong ICMEs arrived at the Earth is small. The S-ICMEs structures can cause the geomagnetic storms especially intense geomagnetic storms with high possibility. It statistically show the result that the S-ICMEs are important sources of the geomagnetic storms especially for intense storms.

Historical space weather monitoring of prolonged aurora activities in Japan and in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Ryuho; Isobe, Hiroaki; Hayakawa, Hisashi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Miyahara, Hiroko; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Yamamoto, Kazuaki; Takei, Masako; Terashima, Tsuneyo; Suzuki, Hidehiko; Fujiwara, Yasunori; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-02-01

Great magnetic storms are recorded as aurora sightings in historical documents. The earliest known example of "prolonged" aurora sightings, with aurora persistent for two or more nights within a 7 day interval at low latitudes, in Japan was documented on 21-23 February 1204 in Meigetsuki, when a big sunspot was also recorded in China. We have searched for prolonged events over the 600 year interval since 620 in Japan based on the catalogue of Kanda and over the 700 year interval since 581 in China based on the catalogues of Tamazawa et al. (2017) and Hayakawa et al. (2015). Before the Meigetsuki event, a significant fraction of the 200 possible aurora sightings in Sòng dynasty (960-1279) of China was detected at least twice within a 7 day interval and sometimes recurred with approximately the solar rotation period of 27 days. The majority of prolonged aurora activity events occurred around the maximum phase of solar cycles rather than around the minimum, as estimated from the 14C analysis of tree rings. They were not reported during the Oort Minimum (1010-1050). We hypothesize that the prolonged aurora sightings are associated with great magnetic storms resulting from multiple coronal mass ejections from the same active region. The historical documents therefore provide useful information to support estimation of great magnetic storm frequency, which are often associated with power outages and other societal concerns.

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Detection and Prediction of Hail Storms in Satellite Imagery using Deep Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullman, M.; Gurung, I.; Ramachandran, R.; Maskey, M.

2017-12-01

Natural hazards, such as damaging hail storms, dramatically disrupt both industry and agriculture, having significant socio-economic impacts in the United States. In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest 2016 weather phenomenon in the United States. The destructive nature and high cost of hail storms has driven research into the development of more accurate hail-prediction algorithms in an effort to mitigate societal impacts. Recently, weather forecasting efforts have turned to deep learning neural networks because neural networks can more effectively model complex, nonlinear, dynamical phenomenon that exist in large datasets through multiple stages of transformation and representation. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages satellite imagery to detect and predict the occurrence of hail storms. The technique is applied to satellite imagery from 2006 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and incorporates hail reports obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database for training and validation purposes. In this presentation, we describe a novel approach to predicting hail via a neural network model that creates a large labeled dataset of hail storms, the accuracy and results of the model, and its applications for improving hail forecasting.

Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

2018-05-01

Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices (ISGI) of the Observatory de l'Ebre during 2002 (solar activity maximum in Cycle 23) as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources, identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 (68%) involved halo CMEs. Twelve of the 19 fastest CMEs with speeds greater than 1000 km s-1 are halo CMEs. For the 44 CMEs, including 21 halo CMEs, the corresponding X-ray flare classes are: 3 X-class, 19 M-class, and 22 C-class flares. The probability for an SSC to occur is 75% if the CME is a halo CME. Among the 500, or even more, front-side, non-halo CMEs recorded in 2002, only 23 could be the source of an SSC, i.e. 5%. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification of their trajectories have been examined using joint white-light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The detection of long-lasting type IV bursts observed at metric-hectometric wavelengths is a very useful criterion for the CME-SSC events association. The events associated with the most depressed Dst values are also associated with type IV radio bursts. The four SSCs associated with a single shock at L1 correspond to four radio events exhibiting characteristics different from type IV radio bursts. The solar-wind structures at L1 after the 32 SSCs are 12 magnetic clouds (MCs), 6 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) without an MC structure, 4 miscellaneous structures, which cannot unambiguously be classified as ICMEs, 5 corotating or stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs), one CIR caused two SSCs, and 4 shock events; note than one CIR caused two SSCs. The 11 MCs listed in 3 or more MC catalogs covering the year 2002 are associated with SSCs. For the three most intense geomagnetic storms (based on Dst minima) related to MCs, we note two sudden increases of the Dst, at the arrival of the sheath and the arrival of the MC itself. In terms of geoeffectiveness, the relation between the CME speed and the magnetic-storm intensity, as characterized using the Dst magnetic index, is very complex, but generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km s-1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms, followed by ICMEs (33%). At best, CIRs/SIRs only cause weak storms. We show that these geoeffective events (ICMEs or MCs) trigger an increased and combined auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) and non-thermal continuum (NTC) wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere, and a stronger response in the thermosphere. However, this trend does not appear clearly in the coupling functions, which exhibit relatively weak correlations between the solar-wind energy input and the amplitude of various geomagnetic indices, whereas the role of the southward component of the solar-wind magnetic field is confirmed. Some saturation appears for Dst values < -100 nT on the integrated values of the polar and auroral indices.

Natural variations in the geomagnetically trapped electron population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vampola, A. L.

1972-01-01

Temporal variations in the trapped natural electron flux intensities and energy spectra are discussed and demonstrated using recent satellite data. These data are intended to acquaint the space systems engineer with the types of natural variations that may be encountered during a mission and to augment the models of the electron environment currently being used in space system design and orbit selection. An understanding of the temporal variations which may be encountered should prove helpful. Some of the variations demonstrated here which are not widely known include: (1) addition of very energetic electrons to the outer zone during moderate magnetic storms: (2) addition of energetic electrons to the inner zone during major magnetic storms; (3) inversions in the outer zone electron energy spectrum during the decay phase of a storm injection event and (4) occasional formation of multiple maxima in the flux vs altitude profile of moderately energetic electrons.

Identification of dust storm source areas in West Asia using multiple environmental datasets.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Amiraslani, Farshad; Liu, Jian; Zhou, Na

2015-01-01

Sand and Dust storms are common phenomena in arid and semi-arid areas. West Asia Region, especially Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, has been recognized as one of the most important dust source areas in the world. In this paper, a method is applied to extract SDS (Sand and Dust Storms) sources in West Asia region using thematic maps, climate and geography, HYSPLIT model and satellite images. Out of 50 dust storms happened during 2000-2013 and collected in form of MODIS images, 27 events were incorporated as demonstrations of the simulated trajectories by HYSPLIT model. Besides, a dataset of the newly released Landsat images was used as base-map for the interpretation of SDS source regions. As a result, six main clusters were recognized as dust source areas. Of which, 3 clusters situated in Tigris-Euphrates plain were identified as severe SDS sources (including 70% dust storms in this research). Another cluster in Sistan plain is also a potential source area. This approach also confirmed six main paths causing dust storms. These paths are driven by the climate system including Siberian and Polar anticyclones, monsoon from Indian Subcontinent and depression from north of Africa. The identification of SDS source areas and paths will improve our understandings on the mechanisms and impacts of dust storms on socio-economy and environment of the region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New aspects of the ionospheric response to the October 2003 superstorms from multiple-satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Wang, Wenbin; Burns, Alan G.; Yue, Xinan; Dou, Xiankang; Luan, Xiaoli; Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Yong C.-M.

2014-03-01

The total electron content (TEC) data measured by the Jason, CHAMP, GRACE, and SAC-C satellites, the in situ electron densities from CHAMP and GRACE, and the vertical E × B drifts from the ROCSAT, have been utilized to examine the ionospheric response to the October 2003 superstorms. The combination of observations from multiple satellites provides a unique global view of ionospheric storm effects, especially over the Pacific Ocean and American regions, which were under sunlit conditions during the main phases of the October 2003 superstorms. The main results of this study are as follows: (1) There were substantial increases in TEC in the daytime at low and middle latitudes during both superstorms. (2) The enhancements were greater during the 30 October superstorm and occurred over a wider range of local times. (3) They also tended to peak at earlier local times during this second event. (4) These TEC enhancement events occurred at the local times when there were enhancements in the upward vertical drift. (5) The strong upward vertical drifts are attributed to penetration electric fields, suggesting that these penetration electric fields played a significant role in the electron density enhancements during these superstorms. Overall, the main contribution of this study is the simultaneous view of the storm time ionospheric response from multiple satellites, and the association of local time differences in ionospheric plasma response with measured vertical drift variations.

An Extensive Study on Dynamical aspects of Dust Storm over the United Arab Emirates during 18-20 March 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Phanikumar, Devulapalli V.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2015-04-01

On 18 March 2012, a super dust storm event occurred over Middle East (ME) and lasted for several hours. Following to this, another dust storm occurred on early morning of 20 March 2012 with almost higher intensity. Both these storms reduced the horizontal visibility to few hundreds of meters and represented as one of the most intense and long duration dust storms over United Arab Emirates (UAE) in recent times. These storms also reduced the air quality in most parts of the ME implying the shutdown of Airports, schools and hundreds of people were hospitalized with respirational problems. In the context of the above, we have made a detailed study on the dynamical processes leading to triggering of dust storm over UAE and neighboring regions. We have also analyzed its impact on surface, and vertical profiles of background parameters and aerosols during the dust storm period by using ground-based, space borne, dust forecasting model, and reanalysis data sets. The synoptic and dynamic conditions responsible for the occurrence of the dust storm are discussed extensively by using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim reanalysis data sets. The Impact of dust storm on surface and upper air radiosonde measurements and aerosol optical properties are also investigated before, during and after the dust storm event. During the dust storm, surface temperature decreased by 15oC when compared to before and after the event. PM10 values significantly increased maximum of about 1600µg/m3. Spatial variation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) exhibited very high values during the event and source region can be identified of dust transport to our region with this figure. The total attenuated backscatter at 550nm from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite shows the vertical extent of dust up to 8km. The dynamics of this event is related to coupling of subtropical jet and polar jet over the Saudi Arabia region, which leads to massive dust storm generation and dust transport through Rub-Al-Khali, and Persian Gulf over the UAE region. AOD from ground based measurements showed fourfold increase from 0.2 to 1.8 during the event implying an atmospheric forcing of ~ 150 Wm-2. In addition, vertical profile of heating rate showed heating of ~1.5 K/day at 3-4 km during the event. In the view of the above, the present event is discussed in the light of current understanding of dust storm aerosol optical and physical processes and associated dynamics over UAE region.

Phosphorus export during storm events from a human perturbed watershed, southeast China: Implications for coastal ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nengwang; Wu, Yinqi; Chen, Zhuhong; Hong, Huasheng

2015-12-01

Understanding how major storms impact riverine nutrient export to estuaries and the coastal region is crucial in the context of increasing anthropogenic climate and environmental perturbation. In this study, the effects of major storms on river phosphorus (P) were investigated in an agricultural river (SE China), through continuous sampling of dissolved and particulate P during the three largest storm events (A-C) in 2013. There was a major increase in the total P load (3.4-16 fold compared with baseflow). The event mean concentration of storm A was the highest likely due to the first flush effect mobilizing accumulated waste. The flux of DOP and DRP was controlled by discharge as DOP in storm B and DRP in storm C with a relatively simple hysteresis effect with higher fluxes on the rising limb being diluted by rainfall on the falling limb. DOP in storm B remained relatively constant due to delay in DOP flushed from upstream areas balancing dilution by rainfall down stream. DRP in storm C also remained relatively constant caused by successive release of soil DRP to the river from previous unsaturated surface layers. TPP export was greatest towards the early to high stages of the storm events suggesting that most of the eroded sediment and resuspended sediment-bound P are exported during the early stages of the storm. The total flux of P is elevated in watersheds with high levels of human perturbation while climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of major storms. The results of this study are important in predicting the ecosystem response of estuarine and coastal regions to major storms in the riverine catchment area.

The Locations of Ring Current Pressure Peaks: Comparison of TWINS Measurements and CIMI Simulations for the 7-10 September 2015 CIR Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, S. C.; Edmond, J. A.; Xu, H.; Perez, J. D.; Fok, M. C. H.; Goldstein, J.; McComas, D. J.; Valek, P. W.

2017-12-01

The characteristics of a four day 7-10 September 2015 co-rotating interaction region (CIR) storm (min. SYM/H ≤ -110 nT) are categorized by storm phase. Ion distributions of trapped particles in the ring current as measured by the Two Wide-Angle Imaging Neutral Atom Spectrometers (TWINS) are compared with the simulated ion distributions of the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Model (CIMI). The energetic neutral atom (ENA) images obtained by TWINS are deconvolved to extract equatorial pitch angle, energy spectra, ion pressure intensity, and ion pressure anisotropy distributions in the inner magnetosphere. CIMI, using either a self-consistent electric field or a semi-empirical electric field, simulates comparable distributions. There is good agreement between the data measured by TWINS and the different distributions produced by the self-consistent electric field and the semi-empirical electric field of CIMI. Throughout the storm the pitch angle distribution (PAD) is mostly perpendicular in both CIMI and TWINS and there is agreement between the anisotropy distributions. The locations of the ion pressure peaks seen by TWINS and by the self-consistent and semi empirical electric field parameters in CIMI are usually between dusk and midnight. On average, the self-consistent electric field in CIMI reveals ion pressure peaks closer to Earth than its semi empirical counterpart, while TWINS reports somewhat larger radial values for the ion pressure peak locations. There are also notable events throughout the storm during which the simulated observations show some characteristics that differ from those measured by TWINS. At times, there are ion pressure peaks with magnetic local time on the dayside and in the midnight to dawn region. We discuss these events in light of substorm injections indicated by fluctuating peaks in the AE index and a positive By component in the solar wind. There are also times in which there are multiple ion pressure peaks. This may imply that there are time dependent and spatially dependent injection events that are influenced by local reconnection regions in the tail of the magnetosphere. Using CIMI simulations, we present paths of particles with various energies to assist in interpreting these notable events.

The threshold between storm overwash and inundation and the implication to paleo-storm records and climate signatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G.; Long, J.; Osterman, L. E.; Plant, N. G.; Marot, M. E.; Bernier, J.; Flocks, J. G.; Adams, C. S.

2014-12-01

In modern coastal systems, the sensitivity of a coastal site to erosion or deposition during storm conditions depends largely on the geomorphic configuration (e.g. dune or beach height and width) and the storm-induced oceanographic processes (surge and waves). Depending on the magnitude of these variables, coastal systems may be eroded, overwashed, breached, and/or inundated during the storm. To date, there has been no attempt to evaluate how these observable modern differences in storm-impact regimes might be utilized to interpret paleo-storm intensities and frequencies. Time-series of sediment texture, radioisotopic, and foraminiferal data from back-barrier environments along the Chandeleur Islands (Louisiana, USA) document the emplacement of a storm event deposit from Hurricane Isaac and we use this event to test paleo-storm intensity reconstruction methods. Water level reconstructed for the event layer using an advection (grain-size) settling model are 2 - 3 times greater than measured during the storm. The over-estimation is linked to the reconstruction model's assumptions concerning sediment transport during storms (i.e., overwash only), while actual processes included inundation as well. These contrasts may result in misidentification (i.e., presence/absence) and/or misclassification (i.e., intensity) of storms in the geologic record (e.g., low geomorphic conditions and high water levels) that would in turn affect the ability to link storm frequency or intensity to climatic drivers.

Hurricane Irma's Effects on Dune and Beach Morphology at Matanzas Inlet, Atlantic Coast of North Florida: Impacts and Inhibited Recovery?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. N.; Conlin, M. P.; Johnson, H. A.; Paniagua-Arroyave, J. F.; Woo, H. B.; Kelly, B. P.

2017-12-01

During energetic coastal storms, surge from low atmospheric pressure, high wave set-up, and increased wave activity contribute to significant morphologic change within the dune and upper beach environments of barrier island systems. Hurricane Irma made landfall on the southwestern portion of the Florida peninsula, as a category 4 storm on Sept 10th, 2017 and tracked northward along the axis of the Florida peninsula for two days before dissipating over the North American continent. Observations along the North Florida Atlantic coast recorded significant wave heights of nearly 7 m and water levels that exceeded predictions by 2 meters on the early morning of Sept. 11th. At Fort Matanzas National Monument, the dune and upper beach adjacent to Matanzas Inlet experienced landward retreat during the storm, diminishing the acreage of dune and scrub habitat for federally-listed endangered and threatened animal species, including the Anastasia beach mouse, gopher tortoises, and several protected shore birds. Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS surveys, conducted prior to the passage of the storm (Sept. 8) and immediately after the storm (Sept. 13) document dune scarp retreat >10 m in places and an average retreat of 7.8 m (+/- 5.2 m) of the 2-m beach contour, attributable to the event, within the study region. Although it is typical to see sedimentary recovery at the base of dunes within weeks following an erosive event of this magnitude, our follow up RTK surveys, two weeks (Sept. 26) and five weeks (Oct. 19) after the storm, document continued dune retreat and upper beach lowering. Subsequent local buoy observations during the offshore passage of Hurricanes Jose, Maria (Sept. 17 and 23, respectively) and several early-season Nor'easters recorded wave heights well above normal (2-3 meters) from the northeast. The lack of recovery may reveal a threshold vulnerability of the system, in which the timing of multiple moderate-to-high wave events, in the aftermath of a land falling-hurricane, produces a long-term morphological response, inhibiting the dune sedimentary system from reestablishing its previous configuration.

A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

Time-lag and Correlation between ACE and RBSPICE Injection Event Observations during Storm Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madanian, H.; Patterson, J. D.; Manweiler, J. W.; Soto-chavez, A. R.; Gerrard, A. J.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-12-01

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) on the Van Allen Probes mission measures energetic charged particles [ 20 keV to 1 MeV] in the inner magnetosphere and ring current. During geomagnetic storms, injections of energetic ions into the ring current change the ion population and produce geomagnetic field depressions on Earth's surface. We analyzed the magnetic field strength and particle composition in the interplanetary medium measured by instruments on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft near the inner Lagrangian point. The Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor-Low Energy Magnetic Spectrometer (EPAM-LEMS) sensor on ACE measures energetic particles [ 50 keV to 5 MeV] in the interplanetary space. The SYM-H index is utilized to classify the storm events by magnitude and to select more than 60 storm events between 2013 and 2017. We cross-compared ACE observations at storm times, with the RBSPICE ion measurements at dusk to midnight magnetic local time and over the 3-6 L-shell range. We report on the relative composition of the solar particles and the relative composition of the inner magnetospheric hot plasma during storm times. The data correlation is accomplished by shifting the observation time from ACE to RBSPICE using the solar wind velocity at the time of the observation. We will discuss time lags between storm onset at the magnetopause and injection events measured for each storm.

Storm and Substorm Causes and Effects at Midlatitude Location for the St. Patrick's 2013 and 2015 Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, A.; Palacios, J.; Rodríguez-Bouza, M.; Rodríguez-Bilbao, I.; Aran, A.; Cid, C.; Herraiz, M.; Saiz, E.; Rodríguez-Caderot, G.; Cerrato, Y.

2017-10-01

Midlatitude locations are unique regions exposed to both geomagnetic storm and substorm effects, which may be superposed on specific events imposing an extra handicap for the analysis and identification of the sources and triggers. We study space weather effects at the midlatitude location of the Iberian Peninsula for the St. Patrick's day events in 2013 and 2015. We have been able to identify and separate storm and substorm effects on ground magnetometer data from San Pablo-Toledo observatory during storm time revealing important contributions of the Substorm Current Wedge on both events. The analysis of these substorm local signatures have shown to be related to the production of effective geomagnetically induced currents and ionospheric disturbances as measured from Global Navigation Satellite Systems data at MAD2 IGS permanent station and not directly related to the storm main phase. The whole Sun-to-Earth chain has been analyzed in order to identify the solar and interplanetary triggers. In both events a high-speed stream (HSS) and a coronal mass ejections (CME) are involved, though for 2015 event, the HSS has merged with the CME, increasing the storm geoeffectiveness. The enhancement of substorm geoeffectiveness is justified by the effects of the inclined magnetic axes of the Sun and of the Earth during equinox period.

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

Parameterization of synoptic weather systems in the South Atlantic Bight for modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaodong; Voulgaris, George; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-10-01

An event based, long-term, climatological analysis is presented that allows the creation of coastal ocean atmospheric forcing on the coastal ocean that preserves both frequency of occurrence and event time history. An algorithm is developed that identifies individual storm event (cold fronts, warm fronts, and tropical storms) from meteorological records. The algorithm has been applied to a location along the South Atlantic Bight, off South Carolina, an area prone to cyclogenesis occurrence and passages of atmospheric fronts. Comparison against daily weather maps confirms that the algorithm is efficient in identifying cold fronts and warm fronts, while the identification of tropical storms is less successful. The average state of the storm events and their variability are represented by the temporal evolution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind velocity, and wave directional spectral energy. The use of uncorrected algorithm-detected events provides climatologies that show a little deviation from those derived using corrected events. The effectiveness of this analysis method is further verified by numerically simulating the wave conditions driven by the characteristic wind forcing and comparing the results with the wave climatology that corresponds to each storm type. A high level of consistency found in the comparison indicates that this analysis method can be used for accurately characterizing event-based oceanic processes and long-term storm-induced morphodynamic processes on wind-dominated coasts.

Determining storm sampling requirements for improving precision of annual load estimates of nutrients from a small forested watershed.

PubMed

Ide, Jun'ichiro; Chiwa, Masaaki; Higashi, Naoko; Maruno, Ryoko; Mori, Yasushi; Otsuki, Kyoichi

2012-08-01

This study sought to determine the lowest number of storm events required for adequate estimation of annual nutrient loads from a forested watershed using the regression equation between cumulative load (∑L) and cumulative stream discharge (∑Q). Hydrological surveys were conducted for 4 years, and stream water was sampled sequentially at 15-60-min intervals during 24 h in 20 events, as well as weekly in a small forested watershed. The bootstrap sampling technique was used to determine the regression (∑L-∑Q) equations of dissolved nitrogen (DN) and phosphorus (DP), particulate nitrogen (PN) and phosphorus (PP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and suspended solid (SS) for each dataset of ∑L and ∑Q. For dissolved nutrients (DN, DP, DIN), the coefficient of variance (CV) in 100 replicates of 4-year average annual load estimates was below 20% with datasets composed of five storm events. For particulate nutrients (PN, PP, SS), the CV exceeded 20%, even with datasets composed of more than ten storm events. The differences in the number of storm events required for precise load estimates between dissolved and particulate nutrients were attributed to the goodness of fit of the ∑L-∑Q equations. Bootstrap simulation based on flow-stratified sampling resulted in fewer storm events than the simulation based on random sampling and showed that only three storm events were required to give a CV below 20% for dissolved nutrients. These results indicate that a sampling design considering discharge levels reduces the frequency of laborious chemical analyses of water samples required throughout the year.

Ionospheric and Thermospheric Response to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm: a Global Multi-Instrumental Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astafyeva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.; Foerster, M.; Doornbos, E.; Encarnacao, J.; Siemes, C.

2015-12-01

We study the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm of 17-18 March 2015 (the St. Patrick's Day 2015 storm) that was up to now the strongest in the 24th solar cycle (minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT). For this purpose, we use data of ground-based GPS-receivers and ionosondes, along space-borne instruments onboard the following satellites: Jason-2, GRACE, Terra-SAR-X, the three Swarm satellites (A, B, and C), and GUVI/TIMED. The storm consisted of two successive moderate storms. In the response to the first short storm, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second event lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe. At high-latitudes, negative storm signatures were recorded in all longitudinal regions. The negative storm phase was found to be strongest in the Asian sector, in particular in the northern hemisphere (NH), but developed globally on March 18 at the beginning of the recovery phase. At mid-latitudes, inverse hemispheric asymmetries occurred in different longitudinal regions: in the European-African sector, positive storm signatures were observed in the NH, whereas in the American sector, a large positive storm occurred in the southern hemisphere (SH), and the NH experienced a negative storm. These observations performed around the spring equinox signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. At low-latitudes, data from multiple satellites revealed the strongest storm-time effects in the morning (~100-150% enhancement) and post-sunset (~80-100% enhancement) sectors in the topside ionosphere. These dramatic VTEC enhancements were observed at different UT, but around the same area of Eastern Pacific region. To further understand the storm development, we are planning to use thermospheric data from Swarm-C satellite, as well as the data from the electric field instrument onboard the three Swarm satellites.

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

DOE PAGES

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; ...

2017-05-19

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. Formore » non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.« less

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. Formore » non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.« less

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Roeder, William P.

2010-01-01

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

MANGO Imager Network Observations of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on Midlatitude 630 nm Airglow Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, E. A.; Bhatt, A.

2017-12-01

The Midlatitude Allsky-imaging Network for GeoSpace Observations (MANGO) is a network of imagers filtered at 630 nm spread across the continental United States. MANGO is used to image large-scale airglow and aurora features and observes the generation, propagation, and dissipation of medium and large-scale wave activity in the subauroral, mid and low-latitude thermosphere. This network consists of seven all-sky imagers providing continuous coverage over the United States and extending south into Mexico. This network sees high levels of medium and large scale wave activity due to both neutral and geomagnetic storm forcing. The geomagnetic storm observations largely fall into two categories: Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs and Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). In addition, less-often observed effects include anomalous airglow brightening, bright swirls, and frozen-in traveling structures. We will present an analysis of multiple events observed over four years of MANGO network operation. We will provide both statistics on the cumulative observations and a case study of the "Memorial Day Storm" on May 27, 2017.

Observed characteristics of dust storm events over the western United States using meteorological, satellite, and air quality measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Wang, J. X. L.

2014-08-01

To improve dust storm identification over the western United States, historical dust events measured by air quality and satellite observations are analyzed based on their characteristics in data sets of regular meteorology, satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD), and air quality measurements. Based on the prevailing weather conditions associated with dust emission, dust storm events are classified into the following four typical types: (1) The key feature of cold front-induced dust storms is their rapid process with strong dust emissions. (2) Events caused by meso- to small-scale weather systems have the highest levels of emissions. (3) Dust storms caused by tropical disturbances show a stronger air concentration of dust and last longer than those in (1) and (2). (4) Dust storms triggered by cyclogenesis last the longest. In this paper, sample events of each type are selected and examined to explore characteristics observed from in situ and remote-sensing measurements. These characteristics include the lasting period, surface wind speeds, areas affected, average loading on ground-based optical and/or air quality measurements, peak loading on ground-based optical and/or air quality measurements, and loading on satellite-based aerosol optical depth. Based on these analyses, we compare the characteristics of the same dust events captured in different data sets in order to define the dust identification criteria. The analyses show that the variability in mass concentrations captured by in situ measurements is consistent with the variability in AOD from stationary and satellite observations. Our analyses also find that different data sets are capable of identifying certain common characteristics, while each data set also provides specific information about a dust storm event. For example, the meteorological data are good at identifying the lasting period and area impacted by a dust event; the ground-based air quality and optical measurements can capture the peak strength well; aerosol optical depth (AOD) from satellite data sets allows us to better identify dust-storm-affected areas and the spatial extent of dust. The current study also indicates that the combination of in situ and satellite observations is a better method to fill gaps in dust storm recordings.

Comparison of LFM-test particle simulations and radial diffusion models of radiation belt electron injection into the slot region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, F.; Hudson, M.; Kress, B.

2008-12-01

The physics-based Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) code simulates Earth's magnetospheric topology and dynamics by solving the equations of ideal MHD using input solar wind parameters at the upstream boundary. Comparison with electron phase space density evolution during storms using a radial diffusion code, as well as spacecraft measurements where available, will tell us when diffusion is insufficiently accurate for radiation belt simulation, for example, during CME-shock injection events like March 24, 1991, which occurred on MeV electron drift time scales of minutes (Li et al., 1993). The 2004 July and 2004 November storms, comparable in depth of penetration into the slot region to the Halloween 2003 storm, have been modeled with both approaches. The November 8, 2004 storm was preceded by a Storm Sudden Commencement produced by a CME-shock followed by minimum Dst = -373 nT, while the July 23 to July 28 storm interval had milder consecutive drops in Dst, corresponding to multiple CME shocks and southward IMF Bz turnings. We have run the November and July storms with LFM using ACE data as upstream input, running the July storm with lower temporal resolution over a longer time interval. The November storm was different because the SCC shock was unusually intense, therefore the possibility of drift time scale acceleration by the associated magnetosonic impulse produced by the shock exists, as in March 1991 and also Halloween 2003 events (Kress et al., 2007). It can then take a short time (minutes) for electrons to be transported to low L shell while conserving their first invariant, resulting in a peak in energy and phase space density in the slot region. Radial diffusion suffices for some storm periods like the July 2004 sequence of three storms, while the guiding center test particle simulation in MHD fields is necessary to describe prompt injections which occur faster than diffusive time scales, for which November 2004 is a likely candidate. Earlier examples have been studied, including the Kress et al., 2007 study of the Halloween 2003 storm and Li et al., 1993 study of the March 24, 1991 injection event with MHD simulation carried out by Elkington et al. (2002) for this event. Radial diffusion remains the best approach for extended relatively quiet periods like the two month interval following the March 1991 prompt injection. Strong shocks will inject particles into lower L shell within a few minutes violating the third adiabatic invariant, so the diffusion mechanism cannot be adopted for sudden commencements, when Dst increases then decreases drastically; however particle tracing in time-dependent MHD fields will give an accurate estimation, so radial diffusion and particle tracing in MHD fields complement each other in radiation belt studies. Elkington, S. R., M.K. Hudson, M.J. Wiltberger, J.G. Lyon (2002) JASTP, 64, p. 607-615; Kress B. T., M. K. Hudson, M. D. Looper, J. Albert, J. G. Lyon, C. C. Goodrich (2007), J. Geophys. Res., 112, A09215, doi:10.1029/2006JA012218; Li, X., I. Roth, M. Temerin, J. R. Wygant, M. K. Hudson, and J. B. Blake (1993), Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, p. 2423-2426.

The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

2018-01-01

The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality characteristics of four urban land-use catchments in Fresno, California, October 1981 to April 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oltmann, Richard N.; Shulters, Michael V.

1989-01-01

Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality were monitored for industrial, single-dwelling residential, multiple-dwelling residential, and commercial land-use catchments during the 1981-82 and 1982-83 rain seasons. Storm-composite rainfall and discrete run6ff samples were analyzed for numerous inorganic, biological, physical, and organic constituents. Atmospheric dry-deposition and street-surface particulate samples also were collected and analyzed. With the exception of the industrial catchment, the highest runoff concentrations for most constituents occurred during the initial storm runoff and then decreased throughout the remainder of the storm, independent of hydraulic conditions. Metal concentrations were high during initial runoff, but also increased as flow increased. Constituent concentrations for the industrial catchment fluctuated greatly during storms. Statistical tests showed higher ammonia plus organic nitrogen, ammonia, pH, and phenol concentrations in rainfall at the industrial site than at the single-dwelling residential and laboratory sites. Statistical testing of runoff quality data showed higher concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the two residential and commercial catchments for most constituents. Total recoverable lead was one of the few constituents that had lower concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the other three catchments. The two residential catchments showed no significant difference in runoff concentrations for 50 of the 57 constituents used in the statistical analysis. The commercial catchment runoff concentrations for most constituents generally were similar to the residential catchments. Although constituent concentrations generally were higher for the industrial catchment than for the commercial catchment, constituent storm loads from the commercial catchment were similar to the industrial catchment because of the greater runoff volume from the highly impervious commercial catchment. Between 10 and 50 percent of the constituent runoff loads for the two residential catchments were attributed to the rainfall load, with the percentages generally considerably less for the industrial catchment. Event mean concentrations (EMC) for most constituents for all but the industrial catchment were highest for the first two or three storms of the rain season after which they became almost constant. Constituent event mean concentrations for the industrial catchment generally did not show any pattern throughout a rain season. Multiple-regression predictor equations for event mean concentrations were developed for several constituents for all sites. Average annual constituent unit loads were computed for 18 constituents for each catchment. The organophosphorus compounds, diazinon, malathion, and parathion were the most prevalent pesticides detected in rainfall. Diazinon was detected in all 54 rainfall samples. Parathion and malathion were detected in 49 and 50 samples, respectively. Other pesticides detected in rainfall included chlordane, lindane, methoxychlor, endosulfan, and 2,4-D. Of these, only methoxychlor and endosulfan were not consistently detected in runoff.

Hydrological Controls on Nutrient Concentrations and Fluxes in Agricultural Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petry, J.; Soulsby, C.

2002-12-01

This investigation into diffuse agricultural pollution and the hydrological controls that exert a strong influence on both nutrient concentrations and fluxes, was conducted in an intensively farmed lowland catchment in north-east Scotland. The study focuses on spatial and seasonal variations in nutrient concentrations and fluxes at the catchment scale, over a 15-month period. The water quality of the 14.5 km2 Newmills Burn catchment has relatively high nutrient levels with mean concentrations of NO3-N and NH3-N at 6.09 mg/l and 0.28 mg/l respectively. Average PO4-P concentrations are 0.06 mg/l. Over short timescales nutrient concentrations and fluxes are greatest during storm events when PO4-P and NH3-N are mobilised by overland flow in riparian areas, where soils have been compacted by livestock or machinery. Delivery of deeper soil water in subsurface storm flow, facilitated by agricultural under-drainage, produces a marked increase in NO3-N (6.9 mg/l) concentrations on the hydrograph recession limb. A more detailed insight into the catchment response to storm events, and in particular the response of the hydrological pathways which provide the main sources of runoff during storm events, was gained by sampling stream water at 2-hourly intervals during 5 events. End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) was carried out using event specific end-member chemistries to differentiate three catchment-scale hydrological pathways (overland flow, subsurface storm flow, groundwater flow) on the basis of observed Si and NO3-N concentrations in sampled source waters. Results show that overland flow generally dominates the storm peak and provides the main flow path by which P is transferred to stream channels during storm events, whilst subsurface storm flows usually dominate the storm hydrograph volumetrically and route NO3-rich soil water to the stream. The study shows that altering hydrological pathways in a catchment can have implications for nutrient management. Whilst buffer strips can reduce the delivery of NH3-N and PO4-P by overland flow to stream channels during storm events, the management of N-rich storm runoff as NO3 via sub-surface drains would require significant interference with the drainage network. This could have a negative impact on agricultural production in the catchment.

EPISODIC EVENTS: THE EFFECT OF FLOODS ON NUTRIENT TRANSPORT IN A NORTHWESTERN, USA ESTUARY

EPA Science Inventory

To estimate the effects of storms on nutrient transport, dissolved nutrients and suspended sediment loads were measured relative to stream discharge in the Yaquina River, OR for three storm events. Episodic events, particularly high rainfall or flood events may transport high di...

Vulnerability Assessment of Dust Storms in the United States under a Changing Climate Scenario

EPA Science Inventory

Severe weather events, such as flooding, drought, forest fires, and dust storms can have a serious impact on human health. Dust storm events are not well predicted in the United States, however they are expected to become more frequent as global climate warms through the 21st cen...

Aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inamdar, Shreeram; Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.

2017-01-01

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as tropical storms and hurricanes, thunderstorms, heat waves, droughts, ice storms, and snow storms have increased and are projected to further increase in intensity and frequency across the world. These events are expected to have significant consequences for aquatic ecosystems with the potential for large changes in ecosystem processes, responses, and functions.

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

EPA Science Inventory

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

Effects of dust storm events on weekly clinic visits related to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in Minqin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yun; Wang, Ruoyu; Ming, Jing; Liu, Guangxiu; Chen, Tuo; Liu, Xinfeng; Liu, Haixia; Zhen, Yunhe; Cheng, Guodong

2016-02-01

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major public health problem in China. Minqin, a Northwest county of China, has a very high number of annual PTB clinic visits and it is also known for its severe dust storms. The epidemic usually begins in February and ends in July, while the dust storms mainly occur throughout spring and early summer, thereby suggesting that there might be a close link between the causative agent of PTB and dust storms. We investigated the general impact of dust storms on PTB over time by analyzing the variation in weekly clinic visits in Minqin during 2005-2012. We used the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test and a regression model to determine the seasonal periodicity of PTB and dust storms in a time series, as well as assessing the relationships between meteorological variables and weekly PTB clinic visits. After comparing the number of weekly PTB cases in Gansu province with dust storm events, we detected a clear link between the population dynamics of PTB and climate events, i.e., the onset of epidemics and dust storms (defined by an atmospheric index) occurred in almost the same mean week. Thus, particulate matter might be the cause of PTB outbreaks on dust storm days. It is highly likely that the significant decline in annual clinic visits was closely associated with improvements in the local environment, which prevented desertification and decreased the frequency of dust storm events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to provide clear evidence that a PTB epidemic was affected by dust storms in China, which may give insights into the association between this environmental problem and the evolution of epidemic disease.

Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. R. L.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-09-01

The synoptic evolution and impacts of storm Klaus that swept through northern Iberia and southern France on 23-24 January 2009, are assessed. Klaus followed an unusual southern path and was the costliest weather hazard event worldwide during 2009. In particular, it was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. Several long-term records of maximum wind speed gust were broken, including Bordeaux, Narbonne and Perpignan. Storm Klaus first developed close to the Bermudas, traveled fast eastwards and underwent explosive development near the Iberian Peninsula. Its development was supported by an extended and intensified polar jet which stretched down to Western Europe and strong upper-air divergence associated with a second jet streak. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor minor discrepancies. These are likely associated to the fields used by each method for storm identification (near surface geopotential height and geostrophic vorticity, respectively) and to different handling of the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple cyclone candidates. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During the maximum intensification phase, the laplacian of surface pressure increased by 1.165hPa/(deglat)2 within 24 hours.

Storm surges and coastal impacts at Mar del Plata, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Mónica M. E.; D'Onofrio, Enrique E.; Pousa, Jorge L.; Schnack, Enrique J.; Bértola, Germán R.

2009-07-01

Positive storm surges (PSS) lasting for several days can raise the water level producing significant differences between the observed level and the astronomical tide. These storm events can be more severe if they coincide with a high tide or if they bracket several tidal cycles, particularly in the case of the highest astronomical tide. Besides, the abnormal sea-level elevation near the coast can cause the highest waves generated to attack the upper beach. This combination of factors can produce severe erosion, threatening sectors located along the coastline. These effects would be more serious if the storm surge height and duration increase as a result of a climatic change. The Mar del Plata (Argentina) coastline and adjacent areas are exposed to such effects. A statistical characterization of PSS based on their intensity, duration and frequency, including a surge event classification, was performed utilizing tide-gauge records over the period 1956-2005. A storm erosion potential index (SEPI) was calculated from observed levels based on hourly water level measurements. The index was related to beach profile responses to storm events. Also, a return period for extreme SEPI values was calculated. Results show an increase in the average number of positive storm surge events per decade. Considering all the events, the last decade (1996-2005) exhibits an average 7% increase compared to each one of the previous decades. A similar behavior was found for the decadal average of the heights of maximum annual positive storm surges. In this case the average height of the last two decades exceeds that of the previous decades by approximately 8 cm. The decadal average of maximum annual duration of these meteorological events shows an increase of 2 h in the last three decades. A possible explanation of the changes in frequency, height and duration of positive storm surges at Mar del Plata would seem to lie in the relative mean sea-level rise.

Watershed and land use-based sources of trace metals in urban storm water.

PubMed

Tiefenthaler, Liesl L; Stein, Eric D; Schiff, Kenneth C

2008-02-01

Trace metal contributions in urban storm water are of concern to environmental managers because of their potential impacts on ambient receiving waters. The mechanisms and processes that influence temporal and spatial patterns of trace metal loading in urban storm water, however, are not well understood. The goals of the present study were to quantify trace metal event mean concentration (EMC), flux, and mass loading associated with storm water runoff from representative land uses; to compare EMC, flux, and mass loading associated with storm water runoff from urban (developed) and nonurban (undeveloped) watersheds; and to investigate within-storm and within-season factors that affect trace metal concentration and flux. To achieve these goals, trace metal concentrations were measured in 315 samples over 11 storm events in five southern California, USA, watersheds representing eight different land use types during the 2000 through 2005 storm seasons. In addition, 377 runoff samples were collected from 12 mass emission sites (end of watershed) during 15 different storm events. Mean flux at land use sites ranged from 24 to 1,238, 0.1 to 1,272, and 6 to 33,189 g/km(2) for total copper, total lead, and total zinc, respectively. Storm water runoff from industrial land use sites contained higher EMCs and generated greater flux of trace metals than other land use types. For all storms sampled, the highest metal concentrations occurred during the early phases of storm water runoff, with peak concentrations usually preceding peak flow. Early season storms produced significantly higher metal flux compared with late season storms at both mass emission and land use sites.

Major coastal impact induced by a 1000-year storm event

PubMed Central

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn J.; Johannessen, Peter N.; Nielsen, Lars H.; Pejrup, Morten

2013-01-01

Extreme storms and storm surges may induce major changes along sandy barrier coastlines, potentially causing substantial environmental and economic damage. We show that the most destructive storm (the 1634 AD storm) documented for the northern Wadden Sea within the last thousand years both caused permanent barrier breaching and initiated accumulation of up to several metres of marine sand. An aggradational storm shoal and a prograding shoreface sand unit having thicknesses of up to 8 m and 5 m respectively were deposited as a result of the storm and during the subsequent 30 to 40 years long healing phase, on the eroded shoreface. Our results demonstrate that millennial-scale storms can induce large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coastlines and shorefaces, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with and be triggered by a single extreme storm event.

A Telescopic and Microscopic Examination of Acceleration in the June 2015 Geomagnetic Storm: Magnetospheric Multiscale and Van Allen Probes Study of Substorm Particle Injection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Turner, D. L.; Nakamura, R.; Schmid, D.; Mauk, B. H.; Cohen, I. J.; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Strangeway, R. J.;

Winter storms drive rapid phenotypic, regulatory, and genomic shifts in the green anole lizard.

PubMed

Campbell-Staton, Shane C; Cheviron, Zachary A; Rochette, Nicholas; Catchen, Julian; Losos, Jonathan B; Edwards, Scott V

2017-08-04

Extreme environmental perturbations offer opportunities to observe the effects of natural selection in wild populations. During the winter of 2013-2014, the southeastern United States endured an extreme cold event. We used thermal performance, transcriptomics, and genome scans to measure responses of lizard populations to storm-induced selection. We found significant increases in cold tolerance at the species' southern limit. Gene expression in southern survivors shifted toward patterns characteristic of northern populations. Comparing samples before and after the extreme winter, 14 genomic regions were differentiated in the surviving southern population; four also exhibited signatures of local adaptation across the latitudinal gradient and implicate genes involved in nervous system function. Together, our results suggest that extreme winter events can rapidly produce strong selection on natural populations at multiple biological levels that recapitulate geographic patterns of local adaptation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

The global context of the 14 November 2012 storm event

DOE PAGES

Hwang, K. -J.; Sibeck, D. G.; Fok, M. -C. H.; ...

2015-03-01

From 2 to 5 UT on 14 November 2012, the Van Allen Probes observed repeated particle flux dropouts during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm as the satellites traversed the post-midnight to dawnside inner magnetosphere. Each flux dropout corresponded to an abrupt change in the magnetic topology, i.e., from a more dipolar configuration to a configuration with magnetic field lines stretched in the dawn-dusk direction. Geosynchronous GOES spacecraft located in the dusk and near-midnight sectors and the LANL constellation with wide local time coverage also observed repeated flux dropouts and stretched field lines with similar occurrence patterns to thosemore » of the Van Allen Probe events. THEMIS recorded multiple transient abrupt expansions of the evening-side magnetopause ~20–30 min prior to the sequential Van Allen Probes observations. Ground-based magnetograms and all sky images demonstrate repeatable features in conjunction with the dropouts. We combine the various in-situ and ground-based measurements to define and understand the global spatiotemporal features associated with the dropouts observed by the Van Allen Probes. We discuss various proposed hypotheses for the mechanism that plausibly caused this storm-time dropout event as well as formulate a new hypothesis that explains the combined in-situ and ground-based observations: the earthward motion of magnetic flux ropes containing lobe plasmas that form along an extended magnetotail reconnection line in the near-Earth plasma sheet.« less

Sawtooth events and O+ in the plasma sheet and boundary layer: CME- and SIR-driven events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, E. J.; Nowrouzi, N.; Kistler, L. M.; Cai, X.; Liao, J.

2017-12-01

The role of ionospheric ions in sawtooth events is an open question. Simulations[1,2,3] suggest that O+ from the ionosphere produces a feedback mechanism for driving sawtooth events. However, observational evidence[4,5] suggest that the presence of O+ in the plasma sheet is neither necessary nor sufficient. In this study we investigate whether the solar wind driver of the geomagnetic storm has an effect on the result. Building on an earlier study[4] that used events for which Cluster data is available in the plasma sheet and boundary layer, we perform a superposed epoch analysis for coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storms and streaming interaction region (SIR) driven storms separately, to investigate the hypothesis that ionospheric O+ is an important contributor for CME-driven storms but not SIR-driven storms[2]. [1]O. J. Brambles et al. (2011), Science 332, 1183.[2]O. J. Brambles et al. (2013), JGR 118, 6026.[3]R. H. Varney et al. (2016), JGR 121, 9688.[4]J. Liao et al. (2014), JGR 119, 1572.[5]E. J. Lund et al. (2017), JGR, submitted.

Multiple benefits arising from novel management of agricultural ditches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonczyk, Jennine; Barber, Nick; Quinn, Paul

2016-04-01

The opportunity to modify the function and dynamics of farm ditches is very high. There are many kilometres of ditch that could offer multiple benefits to pollution control and lowering flood risk. However, there is first a perception problem to overcome, in that most farmers wish to remove water from the land quickly and are irritated by the accumulation of sediment. Hence, we have built a series of demonstration ditches where the new operation of the ditch can be shown to trap substantial amounts of sediment and nutrients and also not cause any local flooding or water logging problems. The ditch itself is radically changed in shape and is widened as much as possible and usually has a flat bottom. The ditch will also contain a series of leaky barriers that will retain flow during storm events. In very large events an overflow structure is required. These features do have to be engineered to a good level of safety to avoid failure. Sediment must also be recovered from the ditch frequently (at least annually) which again could be a role fulfilled by the farmer. We will show a number of example ditch designs and the data captured in experiments. One feature typically captures 50% of the suspended sediment, 30% of total phosphorus and 20% of the nitrate in a single storm.

Polarimetric and Multi-Doppler Radar Observations of Sprite-producing Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, TImothy J.; Lyons, Walter A.; Rutledge, Steven A.; Dolan, Brenda; Cummer, Steven A.; Krehbiel, Paul; Rison, William

2014-01-01

Sprites are caused by luminous electrical breakdown of the upper atmosphere, and frequently occur over large mesoscale precipitation systems. Two sprite-producing storms (on 8 and 25 June) were observed in Colorado during the summer of 2012. Unlike most past studies of sprites, these storms were observed by a polarimetric radar - the CSU-CHILL facility - which provided both PPI and RHI scans of the cases. Also available were multiple-Doppler syntheses from CSU-CHILL, local NEXRAD radars, and the CSU-Pawnee radar; as well as data from the Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (COLMA), high speed cameras, and other lightning-detection instrumentation. This unique dataset provided an unprecedented look at the detailed kinematic and microphysical structures of the thunderstorms as they produced sprites, including electrical alignment signatures in the immediate location of the charge layers neutralized by sprite-parent positive cloud-to-ground lightning strokes. One of the sprite-producing cases (25 June) featured an anomalous charge structure and may serve as a model for how sprites can be produced over convection rather than the more typical stratiform regions. Also to be presented will be evidence for advection of charge into a common stratiform precipitation region (on 8 June), which was then tapped by lightning originating from multiple different convective cores to produce sprites. Depending on the outcome of the 2013 convective season, polarimetric data from additional storms that produce sprites and other transient luminous events (TLEs) may be presented.

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brenner, Owen T.; Lentz, Erika; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel; Wilson, Kathleen; Nelson, Timothy

2018-01-01

Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York to define a new contour-based morphologic change metric, the Beach Change Envelope (BCE). The BCE quantifies changes to the upper portion of the beach likely to sustain measurable impacts from storm waves and capture a variety of storm and post-storm beach states. We evaluated the ability of the BCE to characterize cycles of beach change by relating it to a conceptual beach recovery regime, and demonstrated that BCE width and BCE height from the profile time series correlate well with established stages of recovery. We also investigated additional applications of this metric to capture impacts from storms and human modification by applying it to several post-storm historical datasets in which impacts varied considerably; Nor'Ida (2009), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Sandy (2012), and a 2009 community replenishment. In each case, the BCE captured distinctive upper beach morphologic change characteristic of these different beach building and erosional events. Analysis of the beach state at multiple profile locations showed spatial trends in recovery consistent with recent morphologic island evolution, which other studies have linked with sediment availability and the geologic framework. Ultimately we demonstrate a new way of more effectively characterizing beach response and recovery cycles to evaluate change along sandy coasts.

Analysis of shoreline and geomorphic change for Breton Island, Louisiana, from 1869 to 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terrano, Joseph F.; Flocks, James G.; Smith, Kathryn E. L.

2016-04-19

Many barrier islands in the United States are eroding and losing elevation substantively because of storm surge, waves, and sea-level changes. This is particularly true for the deltaic barrier system in Louisiana. Breton Island is near the mouth of the Mississippi River at the southern end of the Chandeleur barrier island chain in southeast Louisiana. This report expands on previous geomorphic studies of Breton Island by incorporating additional historic and recent datasets. Multiple analyses focus on longand short-term shoreline change, as well as episodic events and anthropogenic modification. Analyses periods include long term (1869–2014), long-term historic (1869–1950), post-Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (1950–2014), pre/post-Hurricane Katrina (2004–5), and recent (2005–14). In addition to shoreline change, barrier island geomorphology is evaluated using island area, elevation, and sediment volume change. In the long term (1869–2014), Breton Island was affected by landward transgression, island narrowing, and elevation loss. Major storm events exacerbated the long-term trends. In the recent period (2005–14), Breton Island eroded at a slower rate than in the long-term and gained area and total sediment volume. The recent accretion is likely because of the lack of major storms since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Extreme Magnetic Storms: Their Characteristics and Possible Consequences for Humanity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falkowski, B. J.; Tsurutani, B.; Lakhina, G. S.; Deng, Y.; Mannucci, A. J.

2015-12-01

The solar and interplanetary conditions necessary to create an extreme magnetic storm will be discussed. The Carrington 1859 event was not the largest possible. It will be shown that different facets of fast ICMEs/extreme magnetic storms will have different limitations. Some possible adverse effects of such extreme space weather events on society will be addressed.

Impact of storm runoff on Salmonella and Escherichia coli prevalence in irrigation ponds of fresh produce farms in southern Georgia.

PubMed

Harris, C S; Tertuliano, M; Rajeev, S; Vellidis, G; Levy, K

2018-03-01

To examine Salmonella and Escherichia coli in storm runoff and irrigation ponds used by fresh produce growers, and compare Salmonella serovars with those found in cases of human salmonellosis. We collected water before and after rain events at two irrigation ponds on farms in southern Georgia, USA, and collected storm runoff/storm flow within the contributing watershed of each pond. Salmonella and E. coli concentrations were higher in ponds after rain events by an average of 0·46 (P < 0·01) and 0·61 (P < 0·05) log 10 most probable number (MPN) per 100 ml respectively. Salmonella concentrations in storm runoff from fields and forests were not significantly higher than in ponds before rain events, but concentrations in storm flow from streams and ditches were higher by an average of 1·22 log 10 MPN per 100 ml (P < 0·001). Eighteen Salmonella serovars were identified from 155 serotyped isolates, and eight serovars were shared between storm runoff/storm flow and ponds. Seven of the serovars, including five of the shared serovars, were present in cases of human illness in the study region in the same year. However, several serovars most commonly associated with human illness in the study region (e.g. Javiana, Enteritidis, and Montevideo) were not found in any water samples. Salmonella and E. coli concentrations in irrigation ponds were higher, on average, after rain events, but concentrations of Salmonella were low, and the ponds met FDA water quality standards based on E. coli. Some similarities and notable differences were found between Salmonella serovars in water samples and in cases of human illness. This study directly examined storm runoff/storm flow into irrigation ponds and quantified increases in Salmonella and E. coli following rain events, with potential implications for irrigation pond management as well as human health. © 2018 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Mapping Daily and Maximum Flood Extents at 90-m Resolution During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Using Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galantowicz, J. F.; Picton, J.; Root, B.

2017-12-01

Passive microwave remote sensing can provided a distinct perspective on flood events by virtue of wide sensor fields of view, frequent observations from multiple satellites, and sensitivity through clouds and vegetation. During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we used AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, JAXA) data to map flood extents starting from the first post-storm rain-free sensor passes. Our standard flood mapping algorithm (FloodScan) derives flooded fraction from 22-km microwave data (AMSR2 or NASA's GMI) in near real time and downscales it to 90-m resolution using a database built from topography, hydrology, and Global Surface Water Explorer data and normalized to microwave data footprint shapes. During Harvey and Irma we tested experimental versions of the algorithm designed to map the maximum post-storm flood extent rapidly and made a variety of map products available immediately for use in storm monitoring and response. The maps have several unique features including spanning the entire storm-affected area and providing multiple post-storm updates as flood water shifted and receded. From the daily maps we derived secondary products such as flood duration, maximum flood extent (Figure 1), and flood depth. In this presentation, we describe flood extent evolution, maximum extent, and local details as detected by the FloodScan algorithm in the wake of Harvey and Irma. We compare FloodScan results to other available flood mapping resources, note observed shortcomings, and describe improvements made in response. We also discuss how best-estimate maps could be updated in near real time by merging FloodScan products and data from other remote sensing systems and hydrological models.

The extreme dipolarization during the Galaxy 15 spacecraft anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Redmon, R. J.; Welling, D. T.; Rodriguez, J. V.; Haiducek, J. D.

2016-12-01

The substorm just prior to the Galaxy 15 spacecraft anomaly on 5 April 2010 was intriguing for a number of reasons, including that multiple spacecraft were well located near-midnight to observe the event. Another reason is that the associated dipolarization was one of the most severe ever observed by GOES satellites, even though the solar wind conditions were moderate. In this study, we compare the Galaxy 15 event to other substorms in order to understand why the dipolarization was so extreme. Presented will be simulations from the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) of different storms and comparisons made to model results for the Galaxy 15 anomaly event. The SWMF does well in predicting some storms, particularly when heavier O+ ions outflowing from the ionosphere are included. However, the SWMF significantly under-predicts the magnitude of the Galaxy 15 event, regardless of the inclusion of a heavy ion outflow model. The model dipolarization occurs around 30 minutes later than the observed event, while the strength of the dipolarization in terms of the magnetic field was not predicted by the model, although, the model does well overall predicting Dst and Kp. We will also present statistical results representing a survey of dipolarizations observed by the GOES spacecraft over a solar cycle when the satellites were located in the near-midnight local time region. The statistical results are used to determine the occurrence rate and characteristics of similar events to the Galaxy 15 dipolarization event.

A novel fractionation approach for water constituents - distribution of storm event metals.

PubMed

McKenzie, Erica R; Young, Thomas M

2013-05-01

A novel fractionation method, based on both particle size and settling characteristics, was employed to examine metal distributions among five fractions. In-stream and stormwater runoff samples were collected from four land use types: highway, urban, agricultural (storm event and irrigation), and natural. Highway samples contained the highest dissolved concentrations for most metals, and freshwater ambient water quality criteria were exceeded for Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in the first storm of the water year. Anthropogenic sources were indicated for Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in highway and urban samples, and total metal loadings (mg km(-2)) were observed to be as follows: highway > urban > agricultural storm event ∼ natural > agricultural irrigation. Notably, ∼10-fold higher suspended solids concentration was observed in the agricultural storm event sample, and suspended solids-associated metals were correspondingly elevated. Distribution coefficients revealed the following affinities: Zn, Ni, Cd, and Pb to large dense particles; and Cu, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Pb to colloidal organic matter.

A novel fractionation approach for water constituents – distribution of storm event metals

PubMed Central

McKenzie, Erica R.; Young, Thomas M.

2014-01-01

A novel fractionation method, based on both particle size and settling characteristics, was employed to examine metal distributions among five fractions. In-stream and stormwater runoff samples were collected from four land use types: highway, urban, agricultural (storm event and irrigation), and natural. Highway samples contained the highest dissolved concentrations for most metals, and freshwater ambient water quality criteria were exceeded for Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in the first storm of the water year. Anthropogenic sources were indicated for Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in highway and urban samples, and total metal loadings (mg/km2) were observed to be as follows: highway > urban > agricultural storm event ~ natural > agricultural irrigation. Notably, ~10-fold higher suspended solids concentration was observed in the agricultural storm event sample, and suspended solids-associated metals were correspondingly elevated. Distribution coefficients revealed the following affinities: Zn, Ni, Cd, and Pb to large dense particles; and Cu, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Pb to colloidal organic matter. PMID:23535891

The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

2017-12-01

Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

Contaminant Concentrations in Storm Water Entering the Sinclair/Dyes Inlet Subasin of the Puget Sound, USA During Storm Event and Baseflow Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

Contaminant Concentrations in Storm Water Entering the Sinclair/Dyes Inlet Subasin of the Puget Sound , USA During Storm Event and Baseflow Conditions...Johnston1 (Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, Bremerton, WA, USA), Dwight E. Leisle, Bruce Beckwith, and Gerald Sherrell ( Puget Sound Naval Shipyard...The Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed is located on the west side of Puget Sound in Kitsap County, Washington, U.S.A. (Figure 1). Puget Sound Naval

Flood Frequency Analyses Using a Modified Stochastic Storm Transposition Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Kiani, M.

2015-12-01

Research shows that areas with similar topography and climatic environment have comparable precipitation occurrences. Reproduction and realization of historical rainfall events provide foundations for frequency analysis and the advancement of meteorological studies. Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) is a method for such a purpose and enables us to perform hydrologic frequency analyses by transposing observed historical storm events to the sites of interest. However, many previous studies in SST reveal drawbacks from simplified Probability Density Functions (PDFs) without considering restrictions for transposing rainfalls. The goal of this study is to stochastically examine the impacts of extreme events on all locations in a homogeneity zone. Since storms with the same probability of occurrence on homogenous areas do not have the identical hydrologic impacts, the authors utilize detailed precipitation parameters including the probability of occurrence of certain depth and the number of occurrence of extreme events, which are both incorporated into a joint probability function. The new approach can reduce the bias from uniformly transposing storms which erroneously increases the probability of occurrence of storms in areas with higher rainfall depths. This procedure is iterated to simulate storm events for one thousand years as the basis for updating frequency analysis curves such as IDF and FFA. The study area is the Upper Trinity River watershed including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex with a total area of 6,500 mi2. It is the first time that SST method is examined in such a wide scale with 20 years of radar rainfall data.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Evolution of potentially eroding events along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, D.; García Codrón, J. C.

2009-09-01

The anthropogenic global warming is expected to result in a rise in sea-level, accompanied by changes in extreme climate events, such as the frequency and intensity of storms. Such scenario would result in an acceleration of coastal erosion. The aim of the present study is to assess the temporal evolution of potentially eroding events along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century, and to investigate changes in forcing processes such as the frequency and magnitude of storm surges and high wave events. To characterize the potentially eroding events, the total elevation of the water level was selected, being calculated as the sum of the contributions of the average water level, wave run up and the storm surges. Potentially eroding events were identified and quantified following a two-step procedure. Through the first step the potential flood induced by a given storm was estimated by simulating its effects on a theoretical beach profile (intermediate) using an empirical parameterization for extreme run-up approach. The second step consisted on characterizing the maximum storm surge registered during a storm. Those parameters were calculated from hindcasted data (storm surge, wave heights and period, wind speed and direction), retrieved from the SIMAR-44 database (Puertos del Estado), and validated against actual tide gauge measurements and buoy data (RedMar and RedExt networks). Analyses of total water levels showed a long term increase since 1958, resulting from the increase of mean sea level; conversely, a reduction of the frequency and the intensity of the storm events were deduced from the analysis of meteorological records. Since the impact of the storms on macro- and meso- tidal coast closely depend on the tides, a storm impact index was computed taking into account the storm surge magnitude, the wave heights and time duration during which a predefined threshold was exceeded by the sea level. The results are consistent with the analysis of the shoreline evolution on a specific sector of Cantabria (Oyambre) through the comparison of aerial photographs taken between 1957 and 2005. From the late 50´s to late 70’s, the shoreline significantly retreated, in correspondence with the period of maximum storm activity. Conversely, shoreline retreat slowed down during the late 1980s and 1990s while storm activity considerably decreased. Thus long-term coastal erosion, due to the occurrences of high water levels embedded into a long trend term of sea level rise, has been balanced by the reduction of the frequency and intensity of the Atlantic storms. Since relative sea-level will continue rising in the future, most of the coastal morphologies will probably be more frequently reached by the sea, increasing the flooding risk in low-lying sectors and promoting landslides along the cliffs.

How to Recognize and Distinguish Low-Latitude Ionospheric Storms Disturbances Produced by TIDs or PPEFs During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagundes, P. R.; Ribeiro, B. A.; Kavutarapu, V.; Fejer, B. G.; Pillat, V. G.

2016-12-01

The effects of geomagnetic storms on ionosphere are one of the important aspects of the space weather and identifying the possible sources of these perturbations is important. Among the possible sources of ionospheric perturbations, the Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (TID) and Prompt Penetration Electric Field (PPEF) are the most important. In this study, we present and discuss the ionospheric response in the Brazilian sector due to geomagnetic storms occurred during January 2013 and March 2015. These space weather events were investigated using a network of 100 GPS-TEC stations. It has been noticed that the VTEC was disturbed during main phase in both storms. During the first event (January), a positive ionospheric storm peak in TEC is observed first beyond the EIA crest and sometime later at low-latitude and equatorial region. This delayed response at different latitudes could be a signature of TID propagation. In this specific event a TID propagating to northwest direction with a velocity of about 200 m/s. However, during the second event (March), 3 positive ionospheric storm peaks were observed in the VTEC from equator to low latitudes during the storm main phase, but these 3 peaks do not present wave propagation characteristics. Probably, an eastward electric field penetrated at equatorial and low-latitude regions uplifts the F-region where the recombination rates are lower leading to a positive ionospheric storm. To distinguish if the positive ionospheric storm was produced by TID or PPEF, it is important to observe the positive ionospheric storm changes along the meridional direction. In case of TIDs, a meridional propagation of the disturbance wave with a phase and speed will be observed. Therefore, the perturbation occurs first beyond the EIA crest and sometime later at the low latitudes and finally at the equatorial region. In case of PPEF the positive ionospheric storm takes place almost simultaneously from beyond the EIA crest to equatorial region.

Martian Dust Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantor, B. A.; James, P. B.

The Mars Observer Camera (MOC), aboard Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), has completed approximately 3 consecutive Martian years of global monitoring, since entering its mapping orbit on March 9, 1999. MOC observations have shown the important role that dust devils and dust storms play in the Martian dust cycle on time scales ranging from semi-diurnally to interannually. These dust events have been observed across much of the planet from the depths of Hellas basin to the summit of Arsia Mons and range in size from10s of meters across (dust devils) to planet encircling (global dust veils). Though dust devils occur throughout most of the Martian year, each hemisphere has a "dust devil season" that generally follows the subsolar latitude and appears to be repeatable from year-to-year. An exception is NW Amazonis, which has frequent, large dust devils throughout northern spring and summer. MOC observations show no evidence that dust devils cause or lead to dust storms, however, observations do suggest that dust storms can initiate dust devil activity. Dust devils also might play a role in maintaining the low background dust opacity of the Martian atmosphere. Dust storms occur almost daily with few exceptions, with 1000s occurring each year in the present Martian environment, dispelling the notion of a "Classical Dust Storm Season". However, there does appear to be an annual dust storm cycle, with storms developing in specific locations during certain seasons and that some individual storm events are repeatable from year-to-year. The majority of storms develop near the receding seasonal polar cap edge or along the corresponding polar hood boundaries in their respective hemispheres, but they also occur in the northern plains, the windward side of the large shield volcanoes, and in low laying regions such as Hellas, Argyre, and Chryse. The rarest of dust events are the "Great Storms" or "Global Events", of which only 6 (4 "planet encircling" and 2 "global") have been observed to date. With MOC we have observed that global dust events are not individual storms but are composed of a number of local and regional storms (sources) and that they do not signify climatic changes, but are only short-term perturbations to the general interannually repeatable Martian dust storm cycle.

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

PubMed Central

Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted. PMID:26213515

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition.

PubMed

Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

2014-04-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study ( B z  ≤ -5 nT or E y  ≥ 3 mV/m for t ≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME- Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

Event Water Balance and Recharge at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, J. W.; Aulenbach, B. T.

2016-12-01

Investigating catchment storage and runoff pathways allows a better mechanistic understanding of stream flow generation processes. This information can be used to elucidate processes such as those influencing baseflow that support human consumption and ecological needs. Here we describe storm runoff water budgets from 483 rain events to determine the conditions under which precipitation infiltrates to deeper storage that supports baseflow. Further, we examine the storage and recharge behavior of different storm characteristics and antecedent conditions. We use a simple water budget approach to achieve this in which Deep Recharge = (Precipitation) - (Storm Runoff) - (Event Change in Soil Storage). Hydrograph separation was used to determine the storm periods and split storm runoff into baseflow and quickflow. Quickflow was assumed to account for the event water lost to the stream. Data from volumetric water content sensors were used to calculate the soil profile water storage and the change in water storage over the course of an event. The remaining water after these two components was assumed to represent water available for deeper recharge. The median event quickflow:precipitation ratio was 11.8%. Event soil moisture recharge in the top one meter of soil accounted for a median of 65.3% of precipitation. Quickflow and shallow soil moisture recharge accounted for a median of 77.1% of the precipitation delivered to the watershed. Water budgets indicated that 43% of the events provided water for deeper recharge. Of these events, however, only 28% provided 50 mm or more of deep recharge. Because the focus was on events, when humidity was high and the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was low, we ignored the role of evapotranspiration. However, interception, which was not accounted for, would have resulted in less storm precipitation than was measured at the watershed rain gage. Furthermore, transpiration may have altered the post-storm water balance when VPD increased and before excess water was able to infiltrate to deeper storage. While uncertainty remains, this study provided insight into the partitioning of incoming precipitation and the conditions under which water was likely available for deeper recharge.

STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

2015-09-01

Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

Quality of Wisconsin stormwater, 1989-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bannerman, Roger T.; Legg, Andrew D.; Greb, Steven R.

1996-01-01

Water-quality data were compiled from four urban stormwater monitoring projects conducted in Wisconsin between 1989 and 1994. These projects included monitoring in both storm-sewer pipes and urban streams. A total of 147 constitu ents were analyzed for in stormwater sampled from 10 storm-sewer pipes and four urban streams. Land uses represented by the storm-sewer watersheds included residential, commercial, industrial, and mixed. For about one-half the con stituents, at least 10 percent of the event mean con centrations exceeded the laboratory's minimum reporting limit. Detection frequencies were greater than 75 percent for many of the heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in both the storm sewer and stream samples, whereas detec tion frequencies were about 20 percent or greater for many of the pesticides in both types of sam ples. Stormwater concentrations for conventional constituents, such as suspended solids, chloride, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria were greater than minimum reporting limits almost 100 percent of the time. Concentrations of many of the constituents were high enough to say that stormwater in the storm sewers and urban streams might be contrib uting to the degradation of the streams. In this report, constituents defined as potential contami nants are those for which the laboratory minimum report limit was exceeded for at least 10 percent of the sampled storm events, and for which at least one event mean concentration exceeded an estab lished water-quality standard. Storm-sewer sam ples had event mean concentrations of lead, copper, zinc, cadmium, and silver that frequently exceeded Wisconsin's acute toxicity criteria for cold water fisheries. Wisconsin's human cancer criteria was exceeded almost 100 percent of the time for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in stormwater samples from storm sewers and streams. Maximum concentrations of diazinon found in storm sewers exceeded recommended levels of diazinon. Storm-sewer samples also exceeded Wisconsin's ground-water enforcement standards for pesticides, PCB's, phthalates, and chloride. Defined by criteria in this report, poten tial contaminants included five metals (lead, zinc, copper, silver, and cadmium), nine polycyclic aro matic hydrocarbons, Bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, four pesticides (DDT, atrazine, alachlor, and 2,4 D), suspended solids, chlorides, total phosphorus, BOD 5-day, and bacteria. Wisconsin stormwater quality was similar to stormwater quality monitored in other states. Nearly one-half of median concentrations of con stituents in Wisconsin stormwater were within 30 percent of the medians from other states. The clos est agreement was seen for biochemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and total recoverable zinc. Similarities in stormwater quality for the storm sewer and urban streams indicated the storm sewers were a major source of water to the streams during storm events. Concentrations of potential contaminants in urban streams increased dramati cally during storm events as compared to baseflow concentrations.

Spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and their correlation with land-use in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China.

PubMed

Qin, Hua-Peng; Khu, Soon-Thiam; Yu, Xiang-Ying

2010-09-15

The composition of land use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as a study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the downstream of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measure rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009. Due to relatively low frequency monitoring, the IHACRES and exponential pollutant wash-off simulation models are used to interpolate the measured data to compensate for data insufficiency. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants in each sub-catchment during the storm events, and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with not only the residential land use, but also agricultural and bare land use. And some pairs of pollutants (such as COD/BOD, NH(3)-N/TN) might have the similar source because they have strong or moderate positive spatial correlation. Moreover, the first flush intensity (FF50) varies with impervious land areas and different interception ratio of initial storm runoff volume should be adopted in different sub-catchments. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Natural Hazard Problem and Solution Definition in the News Media: the Case of Tropical Storm Allison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric; Mosher-Howe, Katrina

2010-05-01

Focusing events such as natural or technological disasters can have significant impacts on public policy and planning in both the near and long term. These impacts can manifest at different temporal scales ranging from the period of immediate attention and disaster relief through the period of recovery and reconstruction and beyond. These impacts and associated decisions can be studied in retrospect and understood as not only short-term reactions, but as long-term components of subsequent natural hazard planning and public policy. By studying in detail how an event was defined, and the policy and planning alternatives that were raised or recommended in response to a disaster event, we can better understand the role that disaster-related focusing events play in the long-term evolution of a community's public policy, infrastructural planning efforts, and responses to natural disasters. This paper will use a focusing event framework to explore the local and regional policy impacts over time of a major urban flood in Houston, Texas, Tropical Storm Allison. Tropical Storm Allison (TSA), dropped 36 inches of rain on Houston over a period of four days in early June 2001, and was responsible for 22 deaths, 70,000 flood damaged homes, and 5 billion in damage to the region. The primary data source for this effort is a database of 500 articles from the major regional newspaper, the Houston Chronicle, over the period of 2001 through 2008. These articles were coded for multiple variables, including, cause, effect and impact (financial and social), blame, problem and solution definition and solution acceptance). This paper focuses primarily on the measures of problem definition (how was TSA, as an event, defined in the media, for example, as an act of God, or as a result of poor planning or decision making, etc), and on solution definition (what solutions were proposed to mitigate or adapt to future storms of this magnitude, how were they linked to the definition of the problem, and what was the perceived acceptability of such solutions among divers stakeholders). As such, this paper will contribute to our efforts to further link the social and policy sciences theory and methods with natural hazards research.

A Web Portal-Based Time-Aware KML Animation Tool for Exploring Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hydrological Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, X.; Cai, X.; Liu, Y.

2009-12-01

Understanding spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological events such as storms and droughts is highly valuable for decision making on disaster mitigation and recovery. Virtual Globe-based technologies such as Google Earth and Open Geospatial Consortium KML standards show great promises for collaborative exploration of such events using visual analytical approaches. However, currently there are two barriers for wider usage of such approaches. First, there lacks an easy way to use open source tools to convert legacy or existing data formats such as shapefiles, geotiff, or web services-based data sources to KML and to produce time-aware KML files. Second, an integrated web portal-based time-aware animation tool is currently not available. Thus users usually share their files in the portal but have no means to visually explore them without leaving the portal environment which the users are familiar with. We develop a web portal-based time-aware KML animation tool for viewing extreme hydrologic events. The tool is based on Google Earth JavaScript API and Java Portlet standard 2.0 JSR-286, and it is currently deployable in one of the most popular open source portal frameworks, namely Liferay. We have also developed an open source toolkit kml-soc-ncsa (http://code.google.com/p/kml-soc-ncsa/) to facilitate the conversion of multiple formats into KML and the creation of time-aware KML files. We illustrate our tool using some example cases, in which drought and storm events with both time and space dimension can be explored in this web-based KML animation portlet. The tool provides an easy-to-use web browser-based portal environment for multiple users to collaboratively share and explore their time-aware KML files as well as improving the understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hydrological events.

Seasonal variability of stream water quality response to storm events captured using high-frequency and multi-parameter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fovet, O.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Gruau, G.; Jaffrezic, A.; Thelusma, G.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Grimaldi, C.

2018-04-01

The response of stream chemistry to storm is of major interest for understanding the export of dissolved and particulate species from catchments. The related challenge is the identification of active hydrological flow paths during these events and of the sources of chemical elements for which these events are hot moments of exports. An original four-year data set that combines high frequency records of stream flow, turbidity, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and piezometric levels was used to characterize storm responses in a headwater agricultural catchment. The data set was used to test to which extend the shallow groundwater was impacting the variability of storm responses. A total of 177 events were described using a set of quantitative and functional descriptors related to precipitation, stream and groundwater pre-event status and event dynamics, and to the relative dynamics between water quality parameters and flow via hysteresis indices. This approach led to identify different types of response for each water quality parameter which occurrence can be quantified and related to the seasonal functioning of the catchment. This study demonstrates that high-frequency records of water quality are precious tools to study/unique in their ability to emphasize the variability of catchment storm responses.

From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

2014-05-01

The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

Multiple mortality events in bats: a global review

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Cryan, Paul; Hayman, David TH; Plowright, Raina K.; Streicker, Daniel G.

2016-01-01

Collectively, over half of all reported MMEs were of anthropogenic origin. The documented occurrence of MMEs in bats due to abiotic factors such as intense storms, flooding, heat waves, and drought is likely to increase in the future with climate change. Coupled with the chronic threats of roosting and foraging habitat loss, increasing mortality through MMEs is unlikely to be compensated for, given the need for high survival in the dynamics of bat populations.

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-01-01

Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

A Thermodynamic, kinematic and microphysical analysis of a jet and gigantic jet-producing Florida thunderstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Splitt, M. E.; Brownlee, James; Spiva, Nicholas; Liu, Ningyu

2015-08-01

This paper presents a meteorological analysis of a storm that produced two jets, four gigantic jets (GJ), and a starter, which were observed by two radars as well as the Kennedy Space Center 4-Dimensional Lightning Surveillance System on 3 August 2013 in Central Florida. The work is the first application of dual polarization data to a jet-producing storm and is the fifth case related to a tropical disturbance. The storm environment is consistent with the moist tropical paradigm that characterizes about three quarters of the surface and aircraft observed jet and GJ events. The most unstable (MU) convective available potential energy is not unusual for Florida summer convection and is below the climatological mean for these events. An unusual speed shear layer is located near the storm equilibrium level (EL) and the storm exhibits a tilted structure with CGs displaced upshear. The turbulence, as measured by the eddy dissipation rate, is extreme near the storm top during the event window, consistent with the GJ mixing hypothesis. The individual events are collocated with, and track along, the center axis of the divergent outflow at the EL and occur within the region of the coldest GOES IR temperatures—placing the events within the overshoot. The dual polarization data indicate a deep graupel column, extending above the mixed phase layer, to a 13 km altitude.

A Temporal Assessment of Barrier Island Vulnerability to Extreme Wave Events, Virginia Coast Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oster, D. J.; Moore, L. J.; Doran, K. J.; Stockdon, H. F.

2010-12-01

Barrier island vulnerability to storm-generated waves is directly related to interactions between shoreface morphology and surf-zone dynamics. During storms, the seaward-most dune often limits the landward extent of wave energy; however, if maximum wave run-up exceeds the elevation of the top of the dune, overwash or inundation may occur. The ‘Storm Impact Scale’ presented by Sallenger (2000) classifies barrier beach vulnerability to individual storm events based on the elevation of the frontal dune crest and toe relative to maximum wave run-up. Changes to the dune and beachface can occur over a range of time scales, altering local vulnerability to extreme waves from storms, even as a storm is occurring. As sea level continues to rise, barrier beaches will become increasingly vulnerable to overwash and inundation from a greater number of storms. Our objective is to assess temporal trends in barrier island vulnerability while also exploring island-chain-wide response and recovery from two notably different storm events (Nor’Ida and Hurricane Bonnie) along the undeveloped barrier islands of the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR). We compare shoreline position and elevations of the frontal dune crest (DHIGH) and dune toe (DLOW) across four lidar data sets collected between 1998-2010. Observed significant wave height and period from the National Data Buoy Center and the Duck, NC Field Research Facility for the time period between 1985 and 2009 are classified to represent one-year, five-year, and ten-year storm events that serve as the basis for comparison of island vulnerability through time to a range of storm severity. Initial results reveal significant spatial and temporal variation in barrier island vulnerability to storms throughout the VCR. Despite the range of variability, all three beach features (i.e., shoreline position, DHIGH and DLOW), have moved landward indicating large-scale, widespread migration, or narrowing, of VCR barrier island landforms over the last 10 years. Potentially evolving long-term trends in island vulnerability appear to be difficult to detect, likely due to the short time window of analysis and the preferential capture of short-term variations as two out of the four lidar data sets were collected immediately following a storm event. Further statistical analysis of changes in frontal dune height (DHIGH) and the distance between the dune toe (DLOW) and shoreline will provide insight into short-term responses to individual storms as well as the potential for future long-term changes in barrier island vulnerability, contributing to a better understanding of barrier island response to rising seas and severe storms.

Was Magnetic Storm the Only Driver of the Long-Duration Enhancements of Daytime Total Electron Content in the Asian-Australian Sector Between 7 and 12 September 2017?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Huang, Fuqing; Chen, Xuetao; Zhong, Jiahao; Ren, Dexin; Wang, Wenbin; Yue, Xinan; Luan, Xiaoli; Jia, Mingjiao; Dou, Xiankang; Hu, Lianhuan; Ning, Baiqi; Owolabi, Charles; Chen, Jinsong; Li, Guozhu; Xue, Xianghui

2018-04-01

In this study, multiple data sets from Beidou geostationary orbit satellites total electron contents (TECs), ionosonde, meteor radar, magnetometer, and model simulations have been used to investigate the ionospheric responses in the Asian-Australian sector during the September 2017 geomagnetic storm. It was found that long-duration daytime TEC enhancements that lasted from 7 to 12 September 2017 were observed by the Beidou geostationary orbit satellite constellation. This is a unique event as the prominent TEC enhancements persisted during the storm recovery phase when geomagnetic activity became quiet. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model predicted that the TEC enhancements on 7-9 September were associated with the geomagnetic activity, but it showed significant electron density depletions on 10 and 11 September in contrast to the observed TEC enhancements. Our results suggested that the observed long-duration TEC enhancements from 7 to 12 September are mainly associated with the interplay of ionospheric dynamics and electrodynamics. Nevertheless, the root causes for the observed TEC enhancements seen in the storm recovery phase are unknown and require further observations and model studies.

A simplified real time method to forecast semi-enclosed basins storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquali, D.; Di Risio, M.; De Girolamo, P.

2015-11-01

Semi-enclosed basins are often prone to storm surge events. Indeed, their meteorological exposition, the presence of large continental shelf and their shape can lead to strong sea level set-up. A real time system aimed at forecasting storm surge may be of great help to protect human activities (i.e. to forecast flooding due to storm surge events), to manage ports and to safeguard coasts safety. This paper aims at illustrating a simple method able to forecast storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins in real time. The method is based on a mixed approach in which the results obtained by means of a simplified physics based model with low computational costs are corrected by means of statistical techniques. The proposed method is applied to a point of interest located in the Northern part of the Adriatic Sea. The comparison of forecasted levels against observed values shows the satisfactory reliability of the forecasts.

Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2013-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid with a geospatial inventory of critical infrastructure assets to evaluate the potential for storm damage associated with each level of wetland reduction. This poster will present quantitative analyses of the benefits and losses regarding storm surge inundation and damage from land cover changes in the study region.

Series of Storms Battering California Tracked by NASA AIRS Instrument

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-13

A series of atmospheric rivers that brought drought-relieving rains, heavy snowfall and flooding to California this week is highlighted in a new movie created with satellite data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The images of atmospheric water vapor were collected by AIRS between January 7 and 11. They show the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere and its movement across the Pacific Ocean to the United States, where much of it fell as rain or snow. In early January 2017, the Western U.S. experienced rain and flooding from a series of storms flowing to America on multiple streams of moist air, each individually known as an atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are typically 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide. The term "Pineapple Express" refers to atmospheric rivers that originate near or just east of the Hawaiian Islands and terminate along the West Coast of North America. Other atmospheric rivers originate in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and take on a more west-to-east orientation near the U.S. West Coast. Several distinct plumes of moisture are apparent in the AIRS imagery. The first of three atmospheric river events occurred on January 7 and 8. This was a classic Pineapple Express, featuring an uninterrupted supply of heavy moisture drawn up from the deep tropics. This was the wettest storm of the series, producing very heavy rainfall, more than 1 foot (0.3 meter), in parts of Central and Northern California, with relatively smaller amounts of snow at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The second blob of heavy moisture, from January 8 to 10 to the west of California, likely originated thousands of miles to the west, in the tropical Western Pacific. This atmospheric river did not maintain its tropical connection. However, it still produced prodigious rainfall totals in Northern California and much more snow than the first event, since the storm had a more northern and colder trajectory. A third storm, the coldest of the three events, moved through California on January 11 and 12, producing significant rainfall, as well as snow at higher elevations. The movie ends with another atmospheric river attempting to form on January 11 and 12 to the west of Hawaii, transporting moisture into the storm track. Movies are availalbe at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21209

Modeling of storm runoff and pollutant wash off processes during storm event in rapidly urbanizing catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, H. P.; Yu, X. Y.; Khu, S. T.

2009-04-01

Many urban catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast economic growth, population expansion and land use/cover change. Due to the mixture of agricultural/industrial/residential land use or different urbanization level as well as lack of historical monitoring data in the developing area, storm-water runoff pollution modeling is faced with challenges of considerable spatial variations and data insufficiency. Shiyan Reservoir catchment is located in the rapidly urbanizing coastal region of Southeast China. It has six sub-catchments with largely different land use patterns and urbanization levels. A simple semi-distributed model was used to simulate the storm-water runoff pollution process during storm event in the catchment. The model adopted modified IHACRES model and exponential wash-off functions to describe storm-runoff and pollutant wash-off processes, respectively, in each of six sub-catchments. Temporary hydrological and water quality monitoring sites were set at the downstream section of each sub-catchment in Feb-May 2007, spanning non-rain and rain seasons. And the model was calibrated for storm-runoff and water quality data during two typical storm events with rainfall amount of 10mm/4hr and 73mm/5hr, respectively. The results indicated that the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients are greater than 0.65 and 0.55 respectively for storm-runoff model calibration and validation. However although NS coefficients can reach 0.7~0.9 for pollutant wash-off model calibration based on measured data in each storm event, the simulation data can not fit well with the measured data in model validation. According to field survey observation, many litters and residuals were found to distribute in disorder in some sub-catchments or their drainage systems and to instantaneously wash off into the surface water when the rainfall amount and intensity are large enough. In order to improve storm-water runoff pollution simulation in the catchment, the variations of pollutant source and wash off processes in different storm intensity should be consider in future monitoring and model development. Keywords: storm runoff; wash off; urbanization; catchment modeling; litter; residual

Understanding Extreme Precipitation Behaviour in British Columbia's Lower Mainland Using Historical and Proxy Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spry, Christina

In British Columbia, Pineapple Express storms can lead to flooding, slope failures and negative impacts to water quality. Mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events in a changing climate requires an understanding of how local climate responds to regional-toglobal climate forcing patterns. In this study, I use historical and proxy data to identify the distinguishing characteristics of Pineapple Express storms and to develop a tree ring oxygen isotope record (1960--1995) of local climate conditions in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. I found that high magnitude Pineapple Express storms have significantly higher precipitation and streamflow than other storms types, which result in relatively high contributions of Pineapple Express storms to the annual water budget. As well, Pineapple Express precipitation is characterized by an enriched delta18O isotopic signature when compared to precipitation originating from the North Pacific Ocean. However, differences in source water do not appear to be driving the variability in tree ring delta18O ratios. Instead, tree ring isotopic values exhibit a regional climate pattern that is strongly driven by latitudinal temperature gradients and the Rayleigh distillation effect. Therefore, future warmer conditions may decrease the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, which can be recorded in the tree ring isotope record. The results also suggest that warmer temperatures due to climate change could result in more active Pineapple Express storm seasons, with multiple PE storms happening over a short period of time. Concurrent storms significantly increase the risk to society because the resulting antecedent saturated soil conditions can trigger precipitationinduced natural hazards. Keywords: extreme weather; stable isotopes; Pineapple Express; British Columbia; climate change; tree rings.

Winter Storm Jupiter of January 2017: Meteorological Drivers, Synoptic Evolution, and Climate Change Considerations in Portland, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, S.; Loikith, P. C.

2017-12-01

Although the Pacific Northwest has some of the highest wintertime precipitation in the United States, most urban areas receive little in the way of snow. While 37 inches of wintertime rain fall in Portland on average annually, the city only receives four inches of snow on average. Although wintertime extreme snowstorm events are rare in Portland, in the last century they have occurred about once every ten years. On January 10-12th, 2017, winter storm Jupiter brought 11 inches of snow to downtown Portland within a 12-hour period, making it the largest snowstorm for the city in twenty years. The city declared a state of emergency, over 30,000 citizens lost power, and thousands of businesses were forced to shut down. The anomalously cold air and high amounts of snowfall in a short amount of time made the storm different from others in recent years. This study aims to discover the meteorological drivers behind the January 2017 snowstorm in Portland, Oregon. We also aim to understand how this storm compared with other local storms in the past, and assess the likelihood of a similar event occurring in the future. To do this, reanalysis data were used to display the synoptic evolution of the January 2017 storm. We compared this storm with two other extreme snowfall events from December 2008 and January 1980, assessing meteorological similarities and differences between storms. Results show that the 2017 event was associated with a slow moving, strong low-pressure system accompanied by a 500 hPa trough. These large-scale features helped drive slow moving, locally heavy snow bands over the city of Portland. At the same time, an unusually strong Arctic high-pressure system moved into the interior Pacific Northwest allowing for strong cold air advection west through the Cascade Mountain Range and Columbia River Gorge. Temperature trends show warming of 1-2 °C in the Pacific Northwest since the middle of the last century. Because of this, uncertainty associated with occurrence and magnitude of extreme snowfall events with respect to climate change must also be assessed. Understanding essential questions about the synoptic evolution of extreme snowfall events will better equip meteorologists and city planners to understand how this event occurred, and what to look for to better prepare Pacific Northwest cities for future storms.

The effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt

DOE PAGES

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; ...

2017-08-11

Using the electron phase space density (PSD) data measured by Van Allen Probe A from January 2013 to April 2015, we investigate the effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt during 50 geomagnetic storms. A statistical study shows that the maximum electron PSDs for various μ (μ = 630, 1096, 2290, and 3311 MeV/G) at L*~4.0 after the storm peak have good correlations with storm intensity (cc~0.70). This suggests that the occurrence and magnitude of geomagnetic storms are necessary for relativistic electron enhancements at the inner edge of the outer radiation belt (L*more » = 4.0). For moderate or weak storm events (SYM–H min > ~–100 nT) with weak substorm activity (AE max < 800 nT) and strong storm events (SYM–H min ≤ ~–100 nT) with intense substorms (AE max ≥ 800 nT) during the recovery phase, the maximum electron PSDs for various μ at different L* values (L* = 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0) are well correlated with storm intensity (cc > 0.77). For storm events with intense substorms after the storm peak, relativistic electron enhancements at L* = 4.5 and 5.0 are observed. This shows that intense substorms during the storm recovery phase are crucial to relativistic electron enhancements in the heart of the outer radiation belt. In conclusion, our statistics study suggests that magnetospheric processes during geomagnetic storms have a significant effect on relativistic electron dynamics.« less

The effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.

Using the electron phase space density (PSD) data measured by Van Allen Probe A from January 2013 to April 2015, we investigate the effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt during 50 geomagnetic storms. A statistical study shows that the maximum electron PSDs for various μ (μ = 630, 1096, 2290, and 3311 MeV/G) at L*~4.0 after the storm peak have good correlations with storm intensity (cc~0.70). This suggests that the occurrence and magnitude of geomagnetic storms are necessary for relativistic electron enhancements at the inner edge of the outer radiation belt (L*more » = 4.0). For moderate or weak storm events (SYM–H min > ~–100 nT) with weak substorm activity (AE max < 800 nT) and strong storm events (SYM–H min ≤ ~–100 nT) with intense substorms (AE max ≥ 800 nT) during the recovery phase, the maximum electron PSDs for various μ at different L* values (L* = 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0) are well correlated with storm intensity (cc > 0.77). For storm events with intense substorms after the storm peak, relativistic electron enhancements at L* = 4.5 and 5.0 are observed. This shows that intense substorms during the storm recovery phase are crucial to relativistic electron enhancements in the heart of the outer radiation belt. In conclusion, our statistics study suggests that magnetospheric processes during geomagnetic storms have a significant effect on relativistic electron dynamics.« less

Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

2017-10-01

This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

2012-01-01

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

Impact of storms on coastlines: preparing for the future without forgetting the past? Examples from European coastlines using a Storm Impact Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, Paolo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ferreira, Oscar; Spencer, Thomas; Armaroli, Clara

2017-04-01

Severe storms have historically affected many European coastlines but the impact of each storm has been evaluated in different ways in different countries, often using local socio-economic impact criteria (e.g. loss of lives and damage to properties). Although the Xynthia (2010) storm, Atlantic coast of France, was the largest coastal disaster of the last 50 years, similar events have previously impacted Europe. The 1953 storm surge in the southern North Sea, resulted in over 2000 deaths and extensive flooding and was the catalyst for post WWII improvements in flood defences and storm early warning systems. On a longer timescale, the very extreme storm of 1634 AD re-configured Wadden Sea coastlines, accompanied by thousands of deaths. Establishing patterns of coastal risk and vulnerability is greatly helped by the use of historical sources, as these allow the development of more complete time series of storm events and their impacts. The work to be presented was supported by the EU RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) Project. RISC-KIT (http://www.risckit.eu/np4/home.html) is a EU FP7 Collaborative project that has developed methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to low frequency, high-impact hydro-meteorological events in the coastal zone. These products will enhance forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities, improve the assessment of long-term coastal risk and optimize the mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. We analyse historical large-scale events occurred from The Middle Ages to the 1960s at the case study sites of North Norfolk Coast (UK), the Charente-Maritime and Vendée coast (France), the Cinque Terre-Liguria (Italy), the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), and the Ria Formosa coast (Portugal). The work presented here uses a database of events built by the project, examining records for the last 300 years, including the characteristics of the storms as well as recorded losses. Finally, lessons learned will be presented, understanding the interaction between DRR elements such as prevention, resilience, mitigation and preparedness. The project's database is publicly available (http://risckit.cloudapp.net/risckit/#/)

Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of storms and in the probability of their occurrence.

Characterizations of the first flush in storm water runoff from an urban roadway.

PubMed

Lee, B C; Matsui, S; Shimizu, Y; Matsuda, T

2005-07-01

Storm water runoff from urban roadways contains anthropogenic pollutants, which are mainly generated from traffic-related activities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of pollutants from the roadway runoff as well as first flush effects. Storm water runoff was sampled during five storm events from the experimental site in Otsu, Shiga, Japan. From the hydrographs and pollutographs for the roadway runoff, the concentration of pollutants increased with increasing runoff flow in the low flow rate event, but did not significantly increase in the high flow rate event. Moreover, according to the analysis of cumulative pollutant mass versus runoff volume curves from five storm events, the first 50% of the runoff volume transported 62% of TOC and Mo, 60% of SS, 59% of Fe, Mn and Cu, 58% of Ni, 57% of Cd and Pb, 56% of Al, 55% of Zn, and 54% of Cr, as the mean values. The first 30% and 80% of the runoff volume also transported 34-43% mass of the pollutants and 82-88% mass of the pollutants, respectively. This study for storm water runoff may also provide useful information to correctly design treatment facilities, such as detention tanks and ponds, filtration and adsorption systems.

A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2014-05-01

Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

Diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads in precipitation and urban and agricultural storm runoff during January and February 2001 in the San Joaquin River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zamora, Celia; Kratzer, Charles R.; Majewski, Michael S.; Knifong, Donna L.

2003-01-01

The application of diazinon and chlorpyrifos on dormant orchards in 2001 in the San Joaquin River Basin was 24 percent less and 3.2 times more than applications in 2000, respectively. A total of 16 sites were sampled during January and February 2001 storm events: 7 river sites, 8 precipitation sites, and 1 urban storm drain. The seven river sites were sampled weekly during nonstorm periods and more frequently during storm runoff from a total of four storms. The monitoring of storm runoff at a city storm drain in Modesto, California, occurred simultaneously with the collection of precipitation samples from eight sites during a January 2001 storm event. The highest concentrations of diazinon occurred during the storm periods for all 16 sites, and the highest concentrations of chlorpyrifos occurred during weekly nonstorm sampling for the river sites and during the January storm period for the urban storm drain and precipitation sites. A total of 60 samples (41 from river sites, 10 from precipitation sites, and 9 from the storm drain site) had diazinon concentrations greater than 0.08 ?g/L, the concentration being considered by the California Department of Fish and Game as its criterion maximum concentration for the protection of aquatic habitats. A total of 18 samples (2 from river sites, 9 from precipitation sites, and 7 from the storm drain site) exceeded the equivalent California Department of Fish and Game guideline of 0.02 ?g/L for chlorpyrifos. The total diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2001 was 23.8 pounds active ingredient; of this amount, 16.9 pounds active ingredient were transported by four storms, 1.06 pounds active ingredient were transported by nonstorm events, and 5.82 pounds active ingredient were considered to be baseline loads. The total chlorpyrifos load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2001 was 2.17 pounds active ingredient; of this amount, 0.702 pound active ingredient was transported during the four storms, and 1.47 pounds active ingredient were considered as baseline load. The total January and February diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis was 0.27 percent of dormant application; the total January and February chlorpyrifos load was 0.02 percent of dormant application. The precipitation samples collected during the January 2001 storm event were analyzed for pesticides to evaluate their potential contribution to pesticide loads in the study area. When the average concentrations of diazinon and chlorpyrifos in the precipitation samples were compared with concentrations in urban storm runoff samples, 68 percent of the diazinon concentration in the runoff could be accounted for in the precipitation. Chlorpyrifos, however, had average precipitation concentrations that were 2.5 times higher than what was detected in the runoff. Although no firm conclusions can be made from one storm event, preliminary results indicate that pesticides in precipitation can significantly contribute to pesticide loads in storm runoff.

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the issuing authority, these reports include wind speed and atmospheric pressure for a number of stations. However, there is also important ancillary information that includes satellite images, weather radar pictures, sea state recordings, tide gauge records, and coastal surveys. When collated together, the literature survey gives good view of events related to the autumn storm. The key information from media reports is backed up by quantitative numbers from the scientific literature. For energy meteorology in the offshore environment, there is an outline of extreme wave events that may be important to help define the ultimate limit state of engineering structures and the return periods of extreme waves. While this contribution focusses on events from an old storm in the autumn of 2006, more severe regional storms have occurred since then, and the scientific literature indicates that these may be linked with climate warming. Literature surveys may help to fully define extreme meteorological conditions offshore and benefit different branches of the energy industry in Europe.

Disaster Distress Helpline: Wildfires

MedlinePlus

... Tips Anniversaries and Trigger Events Types of Disasters Tornadoes and Severe Storms Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Floods ... While not reported as often as floods or tornadoes and severe storms , they, too, can cause emotional ...

Comparing catchment hydrologic response to a regional storm using specific conductivity sensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inserillo, Ashley; Green, Mark B.; Shanley, James B.; Boyer, Joseph

2017-01-01

A better understanding of stormwater generation and solute sources is needed to improve the protection of aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health from large runoff events. Much of our understanding of water and solutes produced during stormflow comes from studies of individual, small headwater catchments. This study compared many different types of catchments during a single large event to help isolate landscape controls on streamwater and solute generation, including human-impacted land cover. We used a distributed network of specific electrical conductivity sensors to trace storm response during the post-tropical cyclone Sandy event of October 2012 at 29 catchments across the state of New Hampshire. A citizen science sensor network, Lotic Volunteer for Temperature, Electrical Conductivity, and Stage, provided a unique opportunity to investigate high-temporal resolution stream behavior at a broad spatial scale. Three storm response metrics were analyzed in this study: (a) fraction of new water contributing to the hydrograph; (b) presence of first flush (mobilization of solutes during the beginning of the rain event); and (c) magnitude of first flush. We compared new water and first flush to 64 predictor attributes related to land cover, soil, topography, and precipitation. The new water fraction was positively correlated with low and medium intensity development in the catchment and riparian buffers and with the precipitation from a rain event 9 days prior to Sandy. The presence of first flush was most closely related (positively) to soil organic matter. Magnitude of first flush was not strongly related to any of the catchment variables. Our results highlight the potentially important role of human landscape modification in runoff generation at multiple spatial scales and the lack of a clear role in solute flushing. Further development of regional-scale in situ sensor networks will provide better understanding of stormflow and solute generation across a wide range of landscape conditions.

JPSS Data Product Applications for Monitoring Severe Weather and Environmental Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Zhou, L.; Divakarla, M. G.; Atkins, T.

2016-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) next-generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) is the first satellite in the JPSS series. One of the JPSS supported key mission areas is to reduce the loss of life from high-impact weather events while improving efficient economies through environmental information. Combining with the sensors on other polar and geostationary satellite platforms, JPSS observations provided much enhanced capabilities for the Nation's essential products and services, including forecasting severe weather like hurricanes, potential tornadic outbreaks, and blizzards days in advance, and assessing environmental hazards such as droughts, floods, forest fires, poor air quality and harmful coastal waters. Sensor and Environmental Data Records (SDRs/EDRs) derived from S-NPP and follow-on JPSS satellites provide critical data for environmental assessments, forecasts and warnings. This paper demonstrates the use of S-NPP science data products towards analysis events of severe weather and environmental hazards, such as Paraguay Flooding, Hurricane Iselle, the record-breaking winter storm system that impacted the US East Coast area early this year, and Fort McMurray wildfire. A brief description of these examples and a detailed discussion of the winter storm event are presented in this paper. VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) and ATMS (Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) SDR/EDR products collected from multiple days of S-NPP observations are analyzed to study the progression of the winter storm and illustrate how JPSS products captured the storm system. The products used for this study included VIIRS day/night band (DNB) and true color images, ocean turbidity images, snow cover fraction, and the multi-sensor snowfall rates. Quantitative evaluation of the ATMS derived snowfall rates with the radar estimates revealed good agreement. Use of STAR JPSS product monitoring and visualization tools to evaluate these events, and applications of these tools for anomaly detection, mitigation, and science maintenance of the long-term stability of the data products is also presented in this paper.

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wadey, Matthew P.; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Jennifer M.; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

2016-01-01

In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915–2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (<4 days) typically impact different stretches of coastline. The spring/neap tidal cycle prevents successive extreme sea level events from happening within 4–8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective. PMID:27922630

Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

Thyroid storm with multiple organ failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and stroke with a normal serum FT3 level.

PubMed

Harada, Yuko; Akiyama, Hisanao; Yoshimoto, Tatsuji; Urao, Yasuko; Ryuzaki, Munekazu; Handa, Michiko

2012-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare disorder with a sudden onset, rapid progression and high mortality. We experienced a case of thyroid storm which had a devastating course, including multiple organ failure (MOF), severe hypoglycemia, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), and stroke. It was difficult to make a diagnosis of thyroid storm in the present patient, because she did not have a history of thyroid disease and her serum FT3 level was normal. Clinicians should be aware that thyroid storm can occur even when there is an almost normal level of thyroid hormones, and that intensive anticoagulation is required for patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent stroke after thyroid storm.

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

Hurricane Hugo blows down the broccoli: preschoolers' post-disaster play and adjustment.

PubMed

Saylor, C F; Swenson, C C; Powell, P

1992-01-01

This article reports highlights from over 200 parents' observations of their preschoolers' play and verbalizations in the year following Hurricane Hugo. Commonly reported activities included reenactment and discussion of the event in multiple mediums, personification of "Hugo", and expression of fears related to storms. Precocious concern for others, insight, and vocabulary were also noted. In these intact, relatively high functioning families, parents seemed able to facilitate their youngsters' adjustment without outside intervention.

Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Induced Transgression of the Chandeleur Islands for Restoration and Wildlife Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reahard, Ross; Mitchell, Brandie; Brown, Tevin; Billiot, Amanda

2010-01-01

Barrier Islands are the first line of defense against tropical storms and hurricanes for coastal areas. Historically, tropical cyclonic events have had a great impact on the transgression of barrier islands, especially the Chandeleur Island chain off the eastern coast of Louisiana. These islands are of great importance, aiding in the protection of southeastern Louisiana from major storms, providing habitat for nesting and migratory bird species, and are part of the second oldest wildlife refuge in the country. In 1998, Hurricane Georges caused severe damage to the chain, prompting restoration and monitoring efforts by both federal and state agencies. Since then, multiple storm events have steadily diminished the integrity of the islands. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 thwarted all previous restoration efforts, with Hurricane Gustav in 2008 exacerbating island erosion and vegetation loss. Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat 2-4 Multispectral Scanner (MSS), and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) will be utilized to detect land loss, island transgression, and vegetation change from 1979 to 2009. This study looks to create a more synoptic view of the transgression of the Chandeleur Islands and correlate weather and sea surface phenomena with erosion trends over the past 30 years, so that partnering organizations such as the Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences (PIES) can better monitor and address the continual change of the island chain.

Solar storm effects during Saint Patrick's Days in 2013 and 2015 on the Schumann resonances measured by the ELF station at Sierra Nevada (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, A.; Toledo-Redondo, S.; Navarro, E. A.; Fornieles-Callejón, J.; Portí, J. A.

2016-12-01

The effects of solar storms occurring during the days 17 to 19 March 2013 and 2015, St. Patrick's Day intervals, on Schumann resonances (SRs) have been studied. To do this, the experimental data recorded by the Juan Antonio Morente extremely low frequency station located at Sierra Nevada, Spain, have been processed in order to obtain hourly averaged information on the first three resonance modes. Results are compared with monthly averages of the SR data for each hour to detect deviations from the regular behavior. Evidence of significant changes in the peak amplitudes and frequencies of the SRs have been identified in the station's measurements and related to the coronal mass ejection impact in the magnetosphere, detected by in situ plasma measurements onboard spacecraft in the solar wind. However, the complicated nature of the Schumann resonances, dependent on multiple variables and subject to multiple unavoidable interferences (e.g., lightning or human radio sources), in conjunction with the complex magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling processes, makes it difficult to conclude that the observed deviations are exclusively due to the solar events mentioned. Results extracted from only two solar events cannot be considered as conclusive, and therefore, independent comparison with results reported by other research would seem advisable in future works on this subject.

A numerical study of vegetation impact on reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelin, Hu; Qin, Chen; Wang, Hongqing

2014-01-01

Coastal wetlands play a unique role in extreme hurricane events. The impact of wetlands on storm surge depends on multiple factors including vegetation, landscape, and storm characteristics. The Delft3D model, in which vegetation effects on flow and turbulence are explicitly incorporated, was applied to the semi-enclosed Breton Sound (BS) estuary in coastal Louisiana to investigate the wetland impact. Guided by extensive field observations, a series of numerical experiments were conducted based on variations of actual vegetation properties and storm parameters from Hurricane Isaac in 2012. Both the vegetation-induced maximum surge reduction (MSR) and maximum surge reduction rate (MSRR) increased with stem height and stem density, and were more sensitive to stem height. The MSR and MSRR decreased significantly with increasing wind intensity. The MSRR was the highest with a fast-moving weak storm. It was also found that the MSRR varied proportionally to the expression involving the maximum bulk velocity and surge over the area of interest, and was more dependent on the maximum bulk surge. Both MSR and MSRR appeared to increase when the area of interest decreased from the whole BS estuary to the upper estuary. Within the range of the numerical experiments, the maximum simulated MSR and MSRR over the upper estuary were 0.7 m and 37%, respectively.

Seasonal variability in hydrologic-system response to intense rain events, Matanuska Glacier, Alaska, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denner, J.C.; Lawson, D.E.; Larson, G.J.; Evenson, E.B.; Alley, R.B.; Strasser, J.C.; Kopczynski, S.

1999-01-01

Two rain events at Matanuska Glacier illustrate how subglacial drainage system development and snowpack conditions affect hydrologic response at the terminus. On 21 and 22 September 1995, over 56 mm of rain fell in the basin during a period usually characterized by much drier conditions. This event caused an 8-fold increase in discharge and a 47-fold increase in suspended-sediment concentration. Peak suspended-sediment concentration exceeded 20 kg m-3, suggesting rapid evacuation of stored sediment. While water discharge returned to its pre-storm level nine days after the rain ceased, suspended-sediment concentrations took about 20 days to return to pre-storm levels. These observations suggest that the storm influx late in the melt season probably forced subglacial water into a more distributed system. In addition, subglacially transported sediments were supplemented to an unknown degree by the influx of storm-eroded sediments off hillslopes and from tributary drainage basins. A storm on 6 and 7 June 1997, dropped 28 mm of rain on the basin demonstrating the effects of meltwater retention in the snowpack and englacial and subglacial storage early in the melt season. Streamflow before the storm event was increasing gradually owing to warming temperatures; however, discharge during the storm and the following week increased only slightly. Suspended-sediment concentrations increased only a small amount, suggesting the drainage system was not yet well developed, and much of the runoff occurred across the relatively clean surface of the glacier or through englacial channels.

Dynamics of dissolved organic matter during four storm events in two forest streams: source, export, and implications for harmful disinfection byproduct formation.

PubMed

Yang, Liyang; Hur, Jin; Lee, Sonmin; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang

2015-06-01

Dynamics of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events have profound influences on the downstream aquatic ecosystem and drinking water safety. This study investigated temporal variations in DOM during four storm events in two forest headwater streams (the EH and JH brooks, South Korea) and the impacts on the disinfection byproducts (DBPs) formation potential. The within-event variations of most DOM quantity parameters were similar to the flow rate in the EH but not in the larger JH brook. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) showed clockwise and counterclockwise hysteresis with the flow rate in the EH and JH brooks, respectively, indicating the importance of both flow path and DOM source pool size in determining the effects of storm events. The stream DOM became less aromatic/humified from the first to the last event in both brooks, probably due to the increasing fresh plant pool and the decreasing leaf litter pool during the course of rainy season. The DOC export during each event increased 1.3-2.7- and 1.1-7.0-fold by stormflows in the EH and JH brooks, respectively. The leaf litter and soil together was the major DOM source, particularly during early events. The enhanced DOM export probably increases the risks of DBPs formation in disinfection, as indicated by a strong correlation observed between DOC and trihalomethanes formation potential (THMFP). High correlations between two humic-like fluorescent components and THMFP further suggested the potential of assessing THMFP with in situ fluorescence sensors during storms.

Deciphering storm-event runoff behavior in a coastal plain watershed using chemical and physical hydrograph separation techniques

Treesearch

Timothy Callahan; Austin E. Morrison

2016-01-01

Interpreting storm-event runoff in coastal plain watersheds is challenging because of the space- and time-variable nature of different sources that contribute to stream flow. These flow vectors and the magnitude of water flux is dependent on the pre-storm soil moisture (as estimated from depth to water table) in the lower coastal plain (LCP) region.

How does rapidly changing discharge during storm events affect transient storage and channel water balance in a headwater mountain stream?

Treesearch

Adam S. Ward; Michael N. Gooseff; Thomas J. Voltz; Michael Fitzgerald; Kamini Singha; Jay P. Zarnetske

2013-01-01

Measurements of transient storage in coupled surface-water and groundwater systems are widely made during base flow periods and rarely made during storm flow periods. We completed 24 sets of slug injections in three contiguous study reaches during a 1.25 year return interval storm event (discharge ranging from 21.5 to 434 L s1 ) in a net gaining headwater stream within...

Sequential Superresolution Imaging of Multiple Targets Using a Single Fluorophore

PubMed Central

Lidke, Diane S.; Lidke, Keith A.

2015-01-01

Fluorescence superresolution (SR) microscopy, or fluorescence nanoscopy, provides nanometer scale detail of cellular structures and allows for imaging of biological processes at the molecular level. Specific SR imaging methods, such as localization-based imaging, rely on stochastic transitions between on (fluorescent) and off (dark) states of fluorophores. Imaging multiple cellular structures using multi-color imaging is complicated and limited by the differing properties of various organic dyes including their fluorescent state duty cycle, photons per switching event, number of fluorescent cycles before irreversible photobleaching, and overall sensitivity to buffer conditions. In addition, multiple color imaging requires consideration of multiple optical paths or chromatic aberration that can lead to differential aberrations that are important at the nanometer scale. Here, we report a method for sequential labeling and imaging that allows for SR imaging of multiple targets using a single fluorophore with negligible cross-talk between images. Using brightfield image correlation to register and overlay multiple image acquisitions with ~10 nm overlay precision in the x-y imaging plane, we have exploited the optimal properties of AlexaFluor647 for dSTORM to image four distinct cellular proteins. We also visualize the changes in co-localization of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor and clathrin upon EGF addition that are consistent with clathrin-mediated endocytosis. These results are the first to demonstrate sequential SR (s-SR) imaging using direct stochastic reconstruction microscopy (dSTORM), and this method for sequential imaging can be applied to any superresolution technique. PMID:25860558

Flooding Mitigation of seawalls and river embankments to storm surges in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianwei; Wang, Xina

2017-04-01

The coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China are susceptible to the destructions of tropical cyclones and storm surges. The projected global warming, coastal subsidence and sea level rise together will bring about greater flooding risk to these areas. The seawall and river embankment have played a significant role in mitigating and preventing the coastal low-land areas from the impairment of storm surges flooding and wave runup. However, few risk assessment studies in this region consider the existence of seawall and river embankment and often overestimate the risk and potential economic loss and population affected due to storm surge flooding. This study utilizes a hydraulic model to simulate the overtop flooding and compare those without seawall and river embankment using several specific tropic storm events and extreme events of tropic storm surges in different return periods of 2, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years. Most seawalls are 4 or 5 meters plus another meter of wave levee above the local mean sea level. The river embankments are usually 4 or 5 meter higher than the local mean sea level as well and decrease from the outer estuary to the inner riverine. The modeling results considering seawall and river embankments and from real storm surges are in agreement with on-site survey and observations, while those without infusing seawall and river embankments overestimate the inundation condition and economic loss. Modeling results demonstrate that seawall and river embankment greatly reduce the flooding risk and prevent the low-land area from inundation for most tropic storm events, e.g., for extreme events less than 20 to 50 years, in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China. However, the seawall and river embankment may also cause catastrophic disasters once there is an engineering failure of seawalls and river embankment, especially once encountering with an extreme typhoon event, e.g., the 1969 super typhoon Viola in Shantou China and the 2005 hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, USA.

Impacts on Coralligenous Outcrop Biodiversity of a Dramatic Coastal Storm

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Casas, Edgar; Cebrián, Emma; Linares, Cristina; Garrabou, Joaquim

2013-01-01

Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006–2008) and after the impact (2009–2010) at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates) was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change. PMID:23326496

Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

2017-12-01

HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively, the interaction and partnering have aided and advanced diverse interests, enabled direct and in-kind support towards mutual goals and enabled considerable leverage of resources focused on science and supporting applications.

16-year Climatology of Cold-Season Extreme Precipitation-Drought Statistics derived from NLDAS Precipitation Data Over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, T.; Mocko, D. M.

2015-12-01

We examine radar-gauge merged 1/8-degree hourly precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase-II datasets from 1997 to 2013. For each 1/8 grid, we derived statistics of single-event storm duration, total accumulated precipitation, and dry period between each storm events during cold (Oct-Mar) seasons, and histogram of event-by-event statistics are used to estimate the thresholds for extreme (below-1%) and very extreme (below-0.1%) events. In this way, we constructed unique climatology maps of the extreme precipitation-drought frequencies and probability density functions. This climatology map depicted that cold-season extremely heavy precipitation events are populated over West Coast, Deep South, and coastal zone of North East, suggesting impacts of land-falling maritime storm systems. Simultaneously, datasets depicts that long-extended precipitation events are mostly populated over North West, and lower Mississippi Basin up to North East centered at Appalachian Mountains, resembling east Pacific storm tracks and nor'easter storm tracks, respectively. Furthermore, season-by-season statistics of these extreme events were examined for each National Climate Assessment (NCA) regimes in comparison with a number of major atmospheric oscillations and teleconnection patterns as well as Arctic Amplifications. Index of Arctic Amplification includes variability of 500mb zonal wind speed and pole-to-midlatitude differences in atmospheric thickness, linking to the phase speed of the Rossby wave. Finally, we present ensemble correlations scores, and discuss the physical processes and underlying mechanisms for their key characteristics as well as the predictive skill and predictability of the extreme events from sub-seasonal to interannual scales during cold seasons.

Increasing cardiopulmonary emergency visits by long-range transported Asian dust storms in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chan, Chang-Chuan; Chuang, Kai-Jen; Chen, Wen-Jone; Chang, Wei-Tien; Lee, Chung-Te; Peng, Chi-Ming

2008-03-01

This study aims to explore whether Asian dust storms can affect health after 4000 km long-range transport from their origins to downwind areas. Asian dust storms reaching Taipei, Taiwan are tracked by satellite images and confirmed by backward trajectory analysis and ground air pollution monitoring between 1995 and 2002. Our outcome variables include emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414), cerebrovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 430-437), and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) (ICD-9-CM 493, 496) from the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH). We use simple paired t-test and Poisson regression models to compare difference in emergency visits, air pollution levels and meteorological conditions for the pairs of Asian dust events and pre-dust periods. There were 39 high dust events with PM(10) greater than 90 microg/m(3) and another 46 low dust events with PM(10) less than 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, PM(10) concentrations are significantly increased by 77 microg/m(3) per event for the high dust events. Asian dust storms increase cardiopulmonary emergency visits during storm-affecting periods in Taipei when ambient PM(10) concentrations are above 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and COPD during high dust events are increased by 0.7 case (35%), 0.7 case (20%), and 0.9 case (20%) per event, respectively, by paired t-tests. By comparing the model-predicted to the observed emergency visits, we find emergency visits for cardiovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414, 430-437) were significantly increased by 2.9 cases (67%) per event for the 39 high Asian dust events.

ScienceCasts: A Display of Lights Above the Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-10-10

Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) are flashes and glows that appear above storms and are results of activity occurring in and below those storms. Researchers are working to better understand lightning and thunderstorms, how they form and develop over time, and why storms produce different TLEs in different circumstances.

Dust Storms and Mortality in the United States, 1995-2005

EPA Science Inventory

Extreme weather events, such as dust storms, are predicted to become more frequent as the global climate warms through the 21st century. The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied extensively in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but t...

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978-1979)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Walter D.; Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Tang, Frances

1989-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem during intense magnetic storms was investigated for ten intense magnetic storm events occurring between August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979. Particular attention was given to the dependence of the ring current energization on the ISEE-measured solar-wind parameters and the evolution of the ring current during the main phase of the intense storms. Several coupling functions were tested as energy input, and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant were searched for the best correlation with the Dst response. Results indicate that a large-scale magnetopause reconnection operates during an intense storm event and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the energization of the ring current.

Impact of land-use on water pollution in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khu, Soon-Thiam; Qin, Huapeng

2010-05-01

Many catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast urbanization which is usually characterized by population increase, economic growth as well as drastic changes of land-use from natural/rural to urban area. During the urbanization process, some catchments experience water quality deterioration due to rapid increase of pollution loads. Nonpoint source pollution resulting from storm water runoff has been recognized as one of the major causes of pollutants in many cities in developing countries. The composition of land-use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management in the catchment. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as the study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the outlets of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measured rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants (such as COD, BOD, NH3-N, TN, TP and SS) in each sub-catchment during the storm events; and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land-use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with the different proportional combination of residential, industrial, agricultural and bare land-use. It is also shown that it is necessary to consider some pervious land-use types in runoff pollution monitoring or management for a rapidly urbanizing area, particularly in heavy storm.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Padua Fire of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2004-01-01

Results of a present preliminary assessment of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from basins burned by the Padua Fire of October 2003 in southern California in response to 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year recurrence, 1-hour duration rain storms are presented. The resulting probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients, and storm rainfall. The resulting peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Padua Fire range between 0 and 99% and estimates of debris-flow peak discharges range between 1211 and 6,096 ft3/s (34 to 173 m3/s). These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Modeling Tornado Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, M.; Doe, R. K.

2017-12-01

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to assess storm damage is a useful research tool. Benefits include their ability to access remote or impassable areas post-storm, identify unknown damages and assist with more detailed site investigations and rescue efforts. Technological advancement of UAVs mean that they can capture high resolution images often at an affordable price. These images can be used to create 3D environments to better interpret and delineate damages from large areas that would have been difficult in ground surveys. This research presents the results of a rapid response site investigation of the 29 April 2017 Canton, Texas, USA, tornado using low cost UAVs. This was a multiple, high impact tornado event measuring EF4 at maximum. Rural farmland was chosen as a challenging location to test both equipment and methodology. Such locations provide multiple impacts at a variety of scales including structural and vegetation damage and even animal fatalities. The 3D impact models allow for a more comprehensive study prior to clean-up. The results show previously unseen damages and better quantify damage impacts at the local level. 3D digital track swaths were created allowing for a more accurate track width determination. These results demonstrate how effective the use of low cost UAVs can be for rapid response storm damage assessments, the high quality of data they can achieve, and how they can help us better visualize tornado site investigations.

A comparison of outer electron radiation belt dropouts during solar wind stream interface and magnetic cloud driven storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunjobi, O.; Sivakumar, V.; Mtumela, Z.

2017-06-01

Energetic electrons are trapped in the Earth's radiation belts which occupy a toroidal region between 3 and 7 \\hbox {R}E above the Earth's surface. Rapid loss of electrons from the radiation belts is known as dropouts. The source and loss mechanisms regulating the radiation belts population are not yet understood entirely, particularly during geomagnetic storm times. Nevertheless, the dominant loss mechanism may require an event based study to be better observed. Utilizing multiple data sources from the year 1997-2007, this study identifies radiation belt electron dropouts which are ultimately triggered when solar wind stream interfaces (SI) arrived at Earth, or when magnetic clouds (MC) arrived. Using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) technique, a synthesis of multiple observations is performed to reveal loss mechanism which might, perhaps, be a major contributor to radiation belt losses under SI and MC driven storms. Results show an abrupt slower decaying precipitation of electron peak (about 3000 counts/sec) on SI arrival within 5.05 < L < 6.05, which persist till 0.5 day before gradual recovery. This pattern is interpreted as an indication of depleted electrons from bounce lost cone via precipitating mechanism known as relativistic electron microburst. On the other hand, MC shows a pancake precipitating peak extending to lower L (Plasmapause); indicating a combination of electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) and whistler mode waves as the contributing mechanisms.

The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

2012-12-01

Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as well as local scale bathymetry. Additionally, significant dependence can be observed over spatial distances of up to several hundred kilometers, implying that meso-scale meteorological forcings may play an important role in driving the dependence. This is also consistent with the result which shows that significant dependence often remaining for lags of up to one or two days between extremal rainfall and storm surge events. The influence of storm burst duration can also be observed, with rainfall extremes lasting more than several hours typically being more closely associated with storm surge compared with sub-hourly rainfall extremes. These results will have profound implications for how flood risk is evaluated along the coastal zone in Australia, with the strength of dependence varying depending on: (1) the dominant meteorological conditions; (2) the local estuary configuration, influencing the strength of the surge; and (3) the catchment attributes, influencing the duration of the storm burst that will deliver the peak flood events. Although a strong random component remains, we show that the probability of an extreme storm surge during an extreme rainfall event (or vice versa) can be up to ten times greater than under the situation under which there is no dependence, suggesting that failure to account for these interactions can result in a substantial underestimation of flood risk.

Contributions of substorm injections to SYM-H depressions in the main phase of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhaohai; Dai, Lei; Wang, Chi; Duan, Suping; Zhang, Lingqian; Chen, Tao; Roth, I.

2016-12-01

Substorm injections bring energetic particles to the inner magnetosphere. But the role of the injected population in building up the storm time ring current is not well understood. By surveying Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous data during 34 storm main phases, we show evidence that at least some substorm injections can contribute to substorm-time scale SYM-H/Dst depressions in the main phase of storms. For event studies, we analyze two typical events in which the main-phase SYM-H index exhibited stepwise depressions that are correlated with particle flux enhancement due to injections and with AL index. A statistical study is performed based on 95 storm time injection events. The flux increases of the injected population (50-400 keV) are found proportional to the sharp SYM-H depressions during the injection interval. By identifying dispersionless and dispersive injection signals, we estimate the azimuthal extent of the substorm injection. Statistical results show that the injection regions of these storm time substorms are characterized with an azimuthal extent larger than 06:00 magnetic local time. These results suggest that at least some substorm injections may mimic the large-scale enhanced convection and contribute to sharp decreases of Dst in the storm main phase.

Quantifications of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on TEC and NmF2 during 2013 Mar. event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Tsagouri, I.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

2016-12-01

We investigate the ionospheric response to 2013 Mar. geomagnetic storm event using GPS TEC, ISR and ionosonde observations in North American sector. In order to quantify variations of TEC and NmF2 (or foF2) due to the storm, we remove the background quiet-time values (e.g., TEC of one day prior to the storm, NmF2 median and average of five quietest days for 30 days prior to the storm). In addition, in order to assess modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC and NmF2, we compare the observations with various model simulations, which are obtained from empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Further, we investigate how uncertainty in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) impacts on TEC and NmF2 during the geomagnetic storm event. For this uncertainty study, we use a physics-based coupled ionosphere-thermosphere model, CTIPe, and solar wind parameters obtained from ensemble of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

Surface Properties Associated With Dust Storm Plume's Point-Source Locations In The Border Region Of The US And Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleiweiss, M. P.; DuBois, D. W.; Flores, M. I.

2013-12-01

Dust storms in the border region of the Southwest US and Northern Mexico are a serious problem for air quality (PM10 exceedances), health (Valley Fever is pandemic in the region) and transportation (road closures and deadly traffic accidents). In order to better understand the phenomena, we are attempting to identify critical characteristics of dust storm sources so that, possibly, one can perform more accurate predictions of events and, thus, mitigate some of the deleterious effects. Besides the emission mechanisms for dust storm production that are tied to atmospheric dynamics, one must know those locations whose source characteristics can be tied to dust production and, therefore, identify locations where a dust storm is eminent under favorable atmospheric dynamics. During the past 13 years, we have observed, on satellite imagery, more than 500 dust events in the region and are in the process of identifying the source regions for the dust plumes that make up an event. Where satellite imagery exists with high spatial resolution (less than or equal to 250m), dust 'plumes' appear to be made up of individual and merged plumes that are emitted from a 'point source' (smaller than the resolution of the imagery). In particular, we have observed events from the ASTER sensor whose spatial resolution is 15m as well as Landsat whose spatial resolution is 30m. Tying these source locations to surface properties such as NDVI, albedo, and soil properties (percent sand, silt, clay, and gravel; soil moisture; etc.) will identify regions with enhanced capability to produce a dust storm. This, along with atmospheric dynamics, will allow the forecast of dust events. The analysis of 10 events from the period 2004-2013, for which we have identified 1124 individual plumes, will be presented.

North Sea Storm Driving of Extreme Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Gray, Suzanne; Jones, Oliver

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North sea is assessed using a long-period wave dataset and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to either the winds in the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or winds in the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events) of extratropical cyclones. The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearwards round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events also provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical storms developing in the right upper-tropospheric jet exit region. There is predictability in the extreme ocean wave events up to two days before the event associated with a strengthening of a high pressure system to the west (northerly-wind events) and south-west (southerly-wind events) of the British Isles. This acts to increase the pressure gradient over the British Isles and therefore drive stronger wind speeds in the central North sea.

Hurricane impacts on forest resources in the Eastern United States: a post-sandy assessment

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Susan J. Crocker; Randall S. Morin; Brian F. Walters

2015-01-01

Extreme weather events play a role in shaping the composition and structure of forests. Responding to and mitigating a storm event in a forested environment requires information about the location and severity of tree damage. However, this information can be difficult to obtain immediately following an event. Post-storm assessments using regularly collected forest...

Development of a CME-associated geomagnetic storm intensity prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. C.; DeHart, J. M.

2015-12-01

From 1995 to 2012, the Wind spacecraft recorded 168 magnetic cloud (MC) events. Among those events, 79 were found to have upstream shock waves and their source locations on the Sun were identified. Using a recipe of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz initial turning direction after shock (Wu et al., 1996, GRL), it is found that the north-south polarity of 66 (83.5%) out of the 79 events were accurately predicted. These events were tested and further analyzed, reaffirming that the Bz intial turning direction was accurate. The results also indicate that 37 of the 79 MCs originate from the north (of the Sun) averaged a Dst_min of -119 nT, whereas 42 of the MCs originating from the south (of the Sun) averaged -89 nT. In an effort to provide this research to others, a website was built that incorporated various tools and pictures to predict the intensity of the geomagnetic storms. The tool is capable of predicting geomagnetic storms with different ranges of Dst_min (from no-storm to gigantic storms). This work was supported by Naval Research Lab HBCU/MI Internship program and Chief of Naval Research.

Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over year of solar maximum during cycle 23: 2. Characterisation on the Sun-Earth path - Geoeffectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Bocchialini, K.; Menvielle, M.; Fontaine, D.; Grison, B.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Regnier, S.; Zouganelis, Y.; Chambodut, A.

2017-12-01

Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, magnetic field polarity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The geoeffectiveness of the events, classified by category at L1, is analysed by their signatures in the Earth ionized (magnetosphere and ionosphere) and neutral (thermosphere) environments, using a broad set of in situ, remote and ground based instrumentation. The role of the presence of a unique or of a multiple source at the Sun, of its nature, halo or non halo CME, is also discussed. The set of observations is statistically analyzed so as to evaluate and compare the geoeffectiveness of the events. The results obtained for this set of geomagnetic storms started by SSCs is compared to the overall statistics of year 2002, relying on already published catalogues of events, allowing assessing the relevance of our approach ; for instance all the 12 well identified Magnetic Clouds of 2002 give rise to SSCs.

The Meteorological Setting of Narrow Bipolar Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, M. A.; Suszcynsky, D. M.; Heavner, M. J.

2003-12-01

Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) are an impulsive form of electrical breakdown in storms which emits strong VHF radiation. It is well known that these events can be readily detected by VHF receivers in orbit and thus may provide a highly practical means to globally monitor storm activity. However, relatively little is known about how NBEs relate to the convective phase of storms and of how good a predictor they are of severe weather events such as large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. On June 10, 2002, numerous energetic NBEs were detected over Kansas by the Los Alamos National Laboratory Edot array, which is primarily located in Florida. These NBEs were also detected by a VHF receiver on-board the SVN 54 GPS satellite. The NBEs were associated with severe thunderstorms which produced softball size hail exceeding 11 centimeters in diameter and a weak F0 tornado. In another case study, several F2 tornadic Florida storms were analyzed for March, 2001. Unlike the Kansas storms, the NBEs of the Florida tornadic storms were spread out over a much wider area and exhibited considerable variability in both frequency of occurrence and predominant polarity of vertical charge transfer. To further explore the significance of the NBE rate variability, we will analyze NEXRAD radar volume scans in conjunction with Edot 3-dimensional locations to better understand how NBEs correlate with the thunderstorm life-cycle.

Changes in monoterpene mixing ratios during summer storms in rural New Hampshire (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haase, K.B.; Jordan, C.; Mentis, E.; Cottrell, L.; Mayne, H.R.; Talbot, R.; Sive, B.C.

2011-01-01

Monoterpenes are an important class of biogenic hydrocarbons that influence ambient air quality and are a principle source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Emitted from vegetation, monoterpenes are a product of photosynthesis and act as a response to a variety of environmental factors. Most parameterizations of monoterpene emissions are based on clear weather models that do not take into account episodic conditions that can drastically change production and release rates into the atmosphere. Here, the ongoing monoterpene dataset from the rural Thompson Farm measurement site in Durham, New Hampshire is examined in the context of a set of known severe storm events. While some storm systems had a negligible influence on ambient monoterpene mixing ratios, the average storm event increased mixing ratios by 0.59 ?? 0.21 ppbv, a factor of 93 % above pre-storm levels. In some events, mixing ratios reached the 10's of ppbv range and persisted overnight. These mixing ratios correspond to increases in the monoterpene emission rate, ranging from 120 to 1240 g km-2 h -1 compared to an estimated clear weather rate of 116 to 193 g km-2 h-1. Considering the regularity of storm events over most forested areas, this could be an important factor to consider when modeling global monoterpene emissions and their resulting influence on the formation of organic aerosols. ?? 2011 Author(s).

Changes in monoterpene mixing ratios during summer storms in rural New Hampshire (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haase, Karl B.; Jordan, C.; Mentis, E.; Cottrell, L.; Mayne, H.R.; Talbot, R.; Sive, B.C.

2011-01-01

Monoterpenes are an important class of biogenic hydrocarbons that influence ambient air quality and are a principle source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Emitted from vegetation, monoterpenes are a product of photosynthesis and act as a response to a variety of environmental factors. Most parameterizations of monoterpene emissions are based on clear weather models that do not take into account episodic conditions that can drastically change production and release rates into the atmosphere. Here, the monoterpene dataset from the rural Thompson Farm measurement site in Durham, New Hampshire is examined in the context of a set of known severe storm events. While some storm systems had a negligible influence on ambient monoterpene mixing ratios, the average storm event increased mixing ratios by 0.59 ?? 0.21 ppbv, a factor of 93% above pre-storm levels. In some events, mixing ratios reached the 10's of ppbv range and persisted overnight. These mixing ratios correspond to increases in the monoterpene emission rate, ranging from 120 to 1240 g km-2 h -1 compared to an estimated clear weather rate of 116 to 193 g km-2 h-1. Considering the regularity of storm events over most forested areas, this could be an important factor to consider when modeling global monoterpene emissions and their resulting influence on the formation of organic aerosols.

Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) Events Under Non-storm Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazykin, S. Y.; Coster, A. J.; Huba, J.; Spiro, R. W.; Baker, J. B.; Kunduri, B.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Erickson, P. J.; Wolf, R.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream, or SAPS, structures, defined here as latitudinally narrow channels of enhanced westward plasma convection in the evening ionosphere equatorward of the auroral electron precipitation boundary, is most dramatic during geomagnetic storms. However, SAPS-like structures known as Polarization Jets or SAIDs (Sub-Auroral Ion Drift events) are also frequently observed during non-storm conditions, typically during periods of isolated substorm activity or during bursts of enhanced convection associated with southward IMF Bz component. This paper presents results from data analysis and numerical simulations of several SAPS/SAID events observed during non-storm conditions. We use convection velocity measurements from the mid-latitude chain of SuperDARN radars and cross-track drift meter data from DMSP spacecraft to identify SAPS/SAID and to characterize their structure and temporal evolution. DMSP topside ion density data and high-resolution ground-based GPS total electron content (TEC) maps are used to determine the ionospheric and plasmaspheric morphology of SAPS regions. DMSP electron precipitation data are used to determine auroral boundaries. We also present simulation results of the chosen event intervals obtained with the SAMI3-RCM ionosphere-magnetosphere coupled model. Observational results are analyzed to identify systematic differences between non-storm SAPS/SAID and the picture that has emerged based on previous storm time studies. Simulation results are used to provide physical interpretation of these differences.

Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Boldt, Eric M.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme; Staley, Dennis M.

2010-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which magnitude III events can be expected. Rainfall trigger-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions in the form of an emergency-response decision chart. The chart leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes, and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels as a function of either individual storm forecasts or measured precipitation during storms. The ability to use this information in the planning and response decision-making process may result in significant financial savings and increased safety for both the public and emergency responders.

Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

2006-06-01

Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash

PubMed Central

Arnalds, Olafur; Thorarinsdottir, Elin Fjola; Thorsson, Johann; Waldhauserova, Pavla Dagsson; Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

2013-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s−1 in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s−1. Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m−1 during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m−1 hr−1 for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions. PMID:23409248

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash.

PubMed

Arnalds, Olafur; Thorarinsdottir, Elin Fjola; Thorsson, Johann; Waldhauserova, Pavla Dagsson; Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

2013-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s(-1) in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s(-1). Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m(-1) during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m(-1) hr(-1) for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions.

The August 1975 Flood over Central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Long; Smith, James; Liu, Maofeng; Baeck, MaryLynn

2016-04-01

The August 1975 flood in Central China was one of the most destructive floods in history, resulting in 26 000 fatalities, leaving about 10 million people with insufficient shelter, and producing long-lasting famine and disease. Extreme rainfall responsible for this flood event was associated with typhoon Nina during 5-7 August 1975. Despite the prominence of the August 1975 flood, analyses of the storms producing the flood and the resulting flood are sparse. Even fewer attempts were made from the perspective of numerical simulations. We examine details of extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood based on downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by 20th Century Reanalysis fields. We further placed key hydrometeorological features for the flood event in a climatological context through the analyses of the 20th Century Reanalysis fields. Results indicate interrelated roles of multiple mesoscale ingredients for deep, moist convection in producing extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood, superimposed over an anomalous synoptic environment. Attribution analyses on the source of water vapor for this flood event will be conducted based on a Lagrangian parcel tracking algorithm LAGRANTO. Analytical framework developed in this study aims to explore utilization of hydrometeorological approach in flood-control engineering designs by providing details on key elements of flood-producing storms.

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M.; Cela, Toni; Marcelin, Louis Herns; Espinola, Maria; Heitmann, Ilva; Sanchez, Claudia; Jean Pierre, Arielle; Foo, Cheryl YunnShee; Thompson, Kip; Klotzbach, Philip; Espinel, Zelde; Rechkemmer, Andreas

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a “trauma signature” summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the “eye-wall” at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding “storm surge” that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma. PMID:28321360

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

Soil moisture dynamics and their effect on bioretention performance in Northeast Ohio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, S. A.; Jefferson, A.; Jarden, K.; Kinsman-Costello, L. E.; Grieser, J.

2014-12-01

Urban impervious surfaces lead to increases in stormwater runoff. Green infrastructure, like bioretention cells, is being used to mitigate negative impacts of runoff by disconnecting impervious surfaces from storm water systems and redirecting flow to decentralized treatment areas. While bioretention soil characteristics are carefully designed, little research is available on soil moisture dynamics within the cells and how these might relate to inter-storm variability in performance. Bioretentions have been installed along a residential street in Parma, Ohio to determine the impact of green infrastructure on the West Creek watershed, a 36 km2 subwatershed of the Cuyahoga River. Bioretentions were installed in two phases (Phase I in 2013 and Phase II in 2014); design and vegetation density vary slightly between the two phases. Our research focuses on characterizing soil moisture dynamics of multiple bioretentions and assessing their impact on stormwater runoff at the street scale. Soil moisture measurements were collected in transects for eight bioretentions over the course of one summer. Vegetation indices of canopy height, percent vegetative cover, species richness and NDVI were also measured. A flow meter in the storm drain at the end of the street measured storm sewer discharge. Precipitation was recorded from a meteorological station 2 km from the research site. Soil moisture increased in response to precipitation and decreased to relatively stable conditions within 3 days following a rain event. Phase II bioretentions exhibited greater soil moisture and less vegetation than Phase I bioretentions, though the relationship between soil moisture and vegetative cover is inconclusive for bioretentions constructed in the same phase. Data from five storms suggest that pre-event soil moisture does not control the runoff-to-rainfall ratio, which we use as a measure of bioretention performance. However, discharge data indicate that hydrograph characteristics, such as lag time and peak flow, are altered relative to a control street. This analysis suggests that street-scale implementation of bioretention can reduce the impact of impervious surface on stormflows, but more information is needed to fully understand how soil moisture of the bioretentions affects inter-storm variability in performance.

Temporal pattern of toxicity in runoff from the Tijuana River Watershed.

PubMed

Gersberg, Richard M; Daft, Daniel; Yorkey, Darryl

2004-02-01

Samples were collected from the Tijuana River under both dry weather (baseflow) conditions and during wet weather, and tested for toxicity using Ceriodaphnia dubia tests. Toxicity of waters in the Tijuana River was generally low under baseflow conditions, but increased markedly during high flow runoff events. In order to determine the temporal pattern of toxicity during individual rain events, sequential grab samples were collected using an autosampler at 5-7 h intervals after the start of the rain event, and tested for acute toxicity. In all cases, peak toxicity values (ranging from 2.8 to 5.8TU) for each storm occurred within the first 1-2 h of initiation of the rain event, and were statistically higher (using the 95% CL) for each of the pre-storm base flow values. However, there was no statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) between flow rate and toxicity when all storm data was pooled. Additionally, we used toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) procedures to attempt to identify the classes of chemicals that account for this early storm toxicity. Solid phase extraction was the only treatment that showed consistent and significant (P<0.05) removal of toxicity. These TIEs, conducted on the most toxic sample of the river's flow during runoff events, suggest that non-polar organics may be responsible for such toxicity. The temporal pattern of toxicity, both during a given storm event and seasonally, indicates that wash-off from the watershed by rainfall may deplete the supply of toxicity available for wash-off in subsequent events, so that a clearly consistent relationship between flow and toxicity was not evident.

Polar cap potential saturation during the Bastille Day storm event using global MHD simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Y.; Nagatsuma, T.; Den, M.; Tanaka, T.; Fujita, S.

2017-04-01

We investigated the temporal variations and saturation of the cross polar cap potential (CPCP) in the Bastille Day storm event (15 July 2000) by global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation. The CPCP is considered to depend on the electric field and dynamic pressure of the solar wind as well as on the ionospheric conductivity. Previous studies considered only the ionospheric conductivity due to solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) variations. In this paper, we dealt with the changes in the CPCP attributable to auroral conductivity variations caused by pressure enhancement in the inner magnetosphere owing to energy injection from the magnetosphere because the energy injection is considerably enhanced in a severe magnetic storm event. Our simulation reveals that the auroral conductivity enhancement is significant for the CPCP variation in a severe magnetic storm event. The numerical results concerning the Bastille Day event show that the ionospheric conductivity averaged over the auroral oval is enhanced up to 18 mho in the case of Bz of less than -59 nT. On the other hand, the average conductivity without the auroral effect is almost 6 mho throughout the entire period. Resultantly, the saturated CPCP is about 240 kV in the former and 704 kV in the latter when Bz is -59 nT. This result indicates that the CPCP variations could be correctly reproduced when the time variation of auroral conductivity caused by pressure enhancement due to the energy injection from the magnetosphere is correctly considered in a severe magnetic storm event.

Annual Report: 2011-2012 Storm Season Sampling, Non-Dry Dock Stormwater Monitoring for Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Bremerton, WA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandenberger, Jill M.; Metallo, David; Rupert, Brian

2013-07-03

Annual PSNS non-dry dock storm water monitoring results for 2011-2012 storm season. Included are a brief description of the sampling procedures, storm event information, laboratory methods and data collection, a results and discussion section, and the conclusions and recommendations.

Urban stormwater quality, event-mean concentrations, and estimates of stormwater pollutant loads, Dallas-Fort Worth area, Texas, 1992-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baldys, Stanley; Raines, T.H.; Mansfield, B.L.; Sandlin, J.T.

1998-01-01

Local regression equations were developed to estimate loads produced by individual storms. Mean annual loads were estimated by applying the storm-load equations for all runoff-producing storms in an average climatic year and summing individual storm loads to determine the annual load.

Autism Prevalence Following Prenatal Exposure to Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in Louisiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinney, Dennis K.; Miller, Andrea M.; Crowley, David J.; Huang, Emerald; Gerber, Erika

2008-01-01

Hurricanes and tropical storms served as natural experiments for investigating whether autism is associated with exposure to stressful events during sensitive periods of gestation. Weather service data identified severe storms in Louisiana from 1980 to 1995 and parishes hit by storm centers during this period. Autism prevalences in different…

Process-based model predictions of hurricane induced morphodynamic change on low-lying barrier islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Elias, Edwin; Wang, Ping; Rosati, Julie D.; Roberts, Tiffany M.

2011-01-01

Using Delft3D, a Chandeleur Island model was constructed to examine the sediment-transport patterns and morphodynamic change caused by Hurricane Katrina and similar storm events. The model setup included a coarse Gulf of Mexico domain and a nested finer-resolution Chandeleur Island domain. The finer-resolution domain resolved morphodynamic processes driven by storms and tides. A sensitivity analysis of the simulated morphodynamic response was performed to investigate the effects of variations in surge levels. The Chandeleur morphodynamic model reproduced several important features that matched observed morphodynamic changes. A simulation of bathymetric change driven by storm surge alone (no waves) along the central portion of the Chandeleur Islands showed (1) a general landward retreat and lowering of the island chain and (2) multiple breaches that increased the degree of island dissection. The locations of many of the breaches correspond with the low-lying or narrow sections of the initial bathymetry. The major part of the morphological change occurred prior to the peak of the surge when overtopping of the islands produced a strong water-level gradient and induced significant flow velocities.

Comparison of conceptually based and regression rainfall-runoff models, Denver Metropolitan area, Colorado, and potential applications in urban areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.

1987-01-01

Multievent, conceptually based models and a single-event, multiple linear-regression model for estimating storm-runoff quantity and quality from urban areas were calibrated and verified for four small (57 to 167 acres) basins in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado. The basins represented different land-use types - light commercial, single-family housing, and multi-family housing. Both types of models were calibrated using the same data set for each basin. A comparison was made between the storm-runoff volume, peak flow, and storm-runoff loads of seven water quality constituents simulated by each of the models by use of identical verification data sets. The models studied were the U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II) (a runoff-quantity model designed for urban areas), and a multievent urban runoff quality model (DR3M-QUAL). Water quality constituents modeled were chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total lead, total manganese, and total zinc. (USGS)

Statistical modeling of storm-level Kp occurrences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Remick, K.J.; Love, J.J.

2006-01-01

We consider the statistical modeling of the occurrence in time of large Kp magnetic storms as a Poisson process, testing whether or not relatively rare, large Kp events can be considered to arise from a stochastic, sequential, and memoryless process. For a Poisson process, the wait times between successive events occur statistically with an exponential density function. Fitting an exponential function to the durations between successive large Kp events forms the basis of our analysis. Defining these wait times by calculating the differences between times when Kp exceeds a certain value, such as Kp ??? 5, we find the wait-time distribution is not exponential. Because large storms often have several periods with large Kp values, their occurrence in time is not memoryless; short duration wait times are not independent of each other and are often clumped together in time. If we remove same-storm large Kp occurrences, the resulting wait times are very nearly exponentially distributed and the storm arrival process can be characterized as Poisson. Fittings are performed on wait time data for Kp ??? 5, 6, 7, and 8. The mean wait times between storms exceeding such Kp thresholds are 7.12, 16.55, 42.22, and 121.40 days respectively.

Quantitative Simulation of QARBM Challenge Events During Radiation Belt Enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Thorne, R. M.; Bortnik, J.; Chu, X.

2017-12-01

Various physical processes are known to affect energetic electron dynamics in the Earth's radiation belts, but their quantitative effects at different times and locations in space need further investigation. This presentation focuses on discussing the quantitative roles of various physical processes that affect Earth's radiation belt electron dynamics during radiation belt enhancement challenge events (storm-time vs. non-storm-time) selected by the GEM Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling (QARBM) focus group. We construct realistic global distributions of whistler-mode chorus waves, adopt various versions of radial diffusion models (statistical and event-specific), and use the global evolution of other potentially important plasma waves including plasmaspheric hiss, magnetosonic waves, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves from all available multi-satellite measurements. These state-of-the-art wave properties and distributions on a global scale are used to calculate diffusion coefficients, that are then adopted as inputs to simulate the dynamical electron evolution using a 3D diffusion simulation during the storm-time and the non-storm-time acceleration events respectively. We explore the similarities and differences in the dominant physical processes that cause radiation belt electron dynamics during the storm-time and non-storm-time acceleration events. The quantitative role of each physical process is determined by comparing against the Van Allen Probes electron observations at different energies, pitch angles, and L-MLT regions. This quantitative comparison further indicates instances when quasilinear theory is sufficient to explain the observed electron dynamics or when nonlinear interaction is required to reproduce the energetic electron evolution observed by the Van Allen Probes.

The May 1967 Great Storm and Radio Disruption Event: The Impacts We Didn't Know About

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D.

2016-12-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01-9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. This event is also one with severe impacts on thermospheric temperature and satellite drag. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the 20th Century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the 20th century, despite the lack of large geomagnetically-induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.

2017-12-01

Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there is a discrepancy between the results from our experiment and the natural ice storm, even though the levels of damage were comparable. It is possible that large declines in N supply observed over the last two decades have resulted in a tightening of the nitrogen cycle. Quantification of additional pools and fluxes (especially foliar N) should provide further insight.

The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2016-09-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

Are inundation limit and maximum extent of sand useful for differentiating tsunamis and storms? An example from sediment transport simulations on the Sendai Plain, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Masashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Imamura, Fumihiko

2018-02-01

We examined the quantitative difference in the distribution of tsunami and storm deposits based on numerical simulations of inundation and sediment transport due to tsunami and storm events on the Sendai Plain, Japan. The calculated distance from the shoreline inundated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami was smaller than that inundated by storm surges from hypothetical typhoon events. Previous studies have assumed that deposits observed farther inland than the possible inundation limit of storm waves and storm surge were tsunami deposits. However, confirming only the extent of inundation is insufficient to distinguish tsunami and storm deposits, because the inundation limit of storm surges may be farther inland than that of tsunamis in the case of gently sloping coastal topography such as on the Sendai Plain. In other locations, where coastal topography is steep, the maximum inland inundation extent of storm surges may be only several hundred meters, so marine-sourced deposits that are distributed several km inland can be identified as tsunami deposits by default. Over both gentle and steep slopes, another difference between tsunami and storm deposits is the total volume deposited, as flow speed over land during a tsunami is faster than during a storm surge. Therefore, the total deposit volume could also be a useful proxy to differentiate tsunami and storm deposits.

Probability of occurrence of planetary ionosphere storms associated with the magnetosphere disturbance storm time events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Stanislawska, I.

2014-11-01

The ionospheric W index allows to distinguish state of the ionosphere and plasmasphere from quiet conditions (W = 0 or ±1) to intense storm (W = ±4) ranging the plasma density enhancements (positive phase) or plasma density depletions (negative phase) regarding the quiet ionosphere. The global W index maps are produced for a period 1999-2014 from Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, designed by Jet Propulson Laboratory, converted from geographic frame (-87.5:2.5:87.5° in latitude, -180:5:180° in longitude) to geomagnetic frame (-85:5:85° in magnetic latitude, -180:5:180° in magnetic longitude). The probability of occurrence of planetary ionosphere storm during the magnetic disturbance storm time, Dst, event is evaluated with the superposed epoch analysis for 77 intense storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and 230 moderate storms (-100 < Dst ≤ -50 nT) with start time, t0, defined at Dst storm main phase onset. It is found that the intensity of negative storm, iW-, exceeds the intensity of positive storm, iW+, by 1.5-2 times. An empirical formula of iW+ and iW- in terms of peak Dst is deduced exhibiting an opposite trends of relation of intensity of ionosphere-plasmasphere storm with regard to intensity of Dst storm.

Studies of images of short-lived events using ERTS data. [forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, earthquakes, and floods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschman, W. A. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Detection of short-lived events has continued. Forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, earthquakes, and floods have been detected and analyzed.

New dust opacity mapping from Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Terry Z.; Richardson, Mark I.

1993-01-01

Global dust opacity mapping for Mars has been carried forward using the approach described by Martin (1986) for Viking IR Thermal Mapper data. New maps are presented for the period from the beginning of Viking observations, until Ls 210 deg in 1979 (1.36 Mars years). This range includes the second and more extensive planet-encircling dust storm observed by Viking, known as storm 1977b. Improvements in approach result in greater time resolution and smaller noise than in the earlier work. A strong local storm event filled the Hellas basin at Ls 170 deg, prior to the 1977a storm. Dust is retained in equatorial regions following the 1977b storm far longer than in mid-latitudes. Minor dust events appear to raise the opacity in northern high latitudes during northern spring. Additional mapping with high time resolution has been done for the periods of time near the major storm origins in order to search for clues to the mechanism of storm initiation. The first evidence of the start of the 1977b storm is pushed back to Ls 274.2 deg, preceding signs of the storm in images by about 15 hours.

Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100.

PubMed

He, Yuxin; Zhao, Cheng; Song, Mu; Liu, Weiguo; Chen, Fahu; Zhang, Dian; Liu, Zhonghui

2015-11-26

Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, U. S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark R.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

1997-01-01

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Major geomagnetic storm due to solar activity (2006-2013).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Bhupendra Kumar

Major geomagnetic storm due to solar activity (2006-2013). Bhupendra Kumar Tiwari Department of Physics, A.P.S.University, Rewa(M.P.) Email: - btiwtari70@yahoo.com mobile 09424981974 Abstract- The geospace environment is dominated by disturbances created by the sun, it is observed that coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare events are the causal link to solar activity that produces geomagnetic storm (GMS).CMEs are large scale magneto-plasma structures that erupt from the sun and propagate through the interplanetary medium with speeds ranging from only a few km/s to as large as 4000 km/s. When the interplanetary magnetic field associated with CMEs impinges upon the earth’s magnetosphere and reconnect occur geomagnetic storm. Based on the observation from SOHO/LASCO spacecraft for solar activity and WDC for geomagnetism Kyoto for geomagnetic storm events are characterized by the disturbance storm time (Dst) index during the period 2006-2013. We consider here only intense geomagnetic storm Dst <-100nT, are 12 during 2006-2013.Geomagnetic storm with maximum Dst< -155nT occurred on Dec15, 2006 associated with halo CME with Kp-index 8+ and also verify that halo CME is the main cause to produce large geomagnetic storms.

Effect of storm events on riverine nitrogen dynamics in a subtropical watershed, southeastern China.

PubMed

Chen, Nengwang; Wu, Jiezhong; Hong, Huasheng

2012-08-01

Rain storms are predicted to increase in the subtropical region due to climate change. However, the effects of storm events on riverine nitrogen (N) dynamics are poorly understood. In this study, the riverine N dynamics and storm effects in a large subtropical river (North Jiulong River, southeastern China) were investigated through continuous sampling of two storm events which occurred in June 2010 and June 2011. The results disclosed a strong linkage between N dynamics and hydrological controls and watershed characteristics. The extreme storm in June 2010 resulted in more fluctuations in N concentrations, loads, and composition, compared with the moderate storm in June 2011. There were contrasting patterns (e.g., the hysteresis effect) between nitrate and ammonium behavior in storm runoff, reflecting their different supply source and transport mechanism. Overall, nitrate supply originated from subsurface runoff and was dominated by within-channel mobilization, while ammonium was mainly from over-land sources and flushed by surface runoff. Extreme storm runoff (2010) caused a four-fold increase in dissolved inorganic N fluxes (DIN), with a greater fraction of ammonium (up to 30% of DIN) compared with the moderate storm and background flow condition (less than 15%). Storm-driven sharp increases of N loads and changes in nutrient stoichiometry (more ammonium) might have been connected with algal blooms in the adjacent estuary and Xiamen Bay. Combined with the background flow measurement of N gradients along the main river and a stream together with anthropogenic N load information, the interactive effect of hydrological and biogeochemical process on riverine N was preliminarily revealed. Current results suggested that storm runoff N was controlled by rainfall, hydrological condition, antecedent soil moisture, spatial variability of land-based N source, and damming. These findings could be used as a reference for future water quality monitoring programs and the development of a pollution mitigation strategy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating and Modeling Ecosystem Response to an Experimental and a Natural Ice Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhraei, H.; Driscoll, C. T.; Rustad, L.; Campbell, J. L.; Groffman, P.; Fahey, T.; Likens, G.; Swaminathan, R.

2017-12-01

Our understanding of ecosystem response to the extreme events is generally limited to rare observations from the natural historical events. However, investigating extreme events under controlled conditions can improve our understanding of these natural phenomena. A novel field experiment was conducted in a northern hardwood forest at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire in the northeastern United States to quantify the influence of ice storms on the ecological processes. During subfreezing conditions in the winters of 2016 and 2017, water from a nearby stream was pumped and sprayed on the canopy of eight experimental plots to accrete ice to a targeted thickness on the canopy. The experiment was conducted at three levels of icing thickness (0.25, 0.5, 0.75 in.) in 2016 comparable to the naturally occurring 1998 ice storm and a second 0.5 in. treatment 2017 which were compared with reference plots. The most notable response of the icing treatments was a marked increase in fine and course litter fall which increased exponentially with increases in the icing thickness. Post-treatment openings in the canopy caused short-term increases in soil temperature in the ice-treatment plots compared to the reference plots. No response from the ice storm treatments were detected for soil moisture, net N mineralization, net nitrification, or denitrification after both natural and experimental ice storm. In contrast to the marked increase in the stream water nitrate after the natural occurring 1998 ice storm, we have not observed any significant change in soil solution N concentrations in the experimental ice storm treatments. Inconsistency in the response between the natural and experimental ice storm is likely due to differences in geophysical characteristics of the study sites including slope and lateral uptake of nutrient by the trees outside the experimental plots. In order to evaluate the long-term impacts of ice storms on northern hardwood forests, we used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC. The model was calibrated to the study watersheds using observations from the natural and experimental ice storms. Future projections for ice storm events were estimated from an advanced climate model and applied to the calibrated PnET-BGC model to simulate future impacts of ice storms on the northern hardwood forests.

Ionospheric storms—A challenge for empirical forecast of the total electron content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borries, C.; Berdermann, J.; Jakowski, N.; Wilken, V.

2015-04-01

Since the last decades, the functioning of society depends more and more on well-functioning communication and navigation systems. As the availability and reliability of most of these satellite-based systems can be severely impacted by ionospheric storms, the accurate forecast of these events becomes a required task for mitigating social and economic risks. Here we aim to make initial steps toward an empirical model for ionospheric perturbations related to space weather events that are observable in the total electron content (TEC). The perturbation TEC forecast model will be a fast and robust approach, improving TEC forecasts based on climatological models during storm conditions. The derivation of such a model is a challenging task, because although a general dependence of the storm features (enhancement or depletion of electron density) on the storm onset time, local time, season and geomagnetic latitude is well known, there is a large deviation from the mean behavior. For a better understanding of storm conditions, this paper presents analyses of ionospheric storms observed in the TEC, broken down into diverse classes of storms. It provides a detailed characterization of the typical ionospheric storm behavior over Europe from high to midlatitudes, beyond case studies. Generally, the typical clear strong TEC enhancement starting in high latitudes and propagating equatorward is found to be strongest for storms starting in the morning hours independent of the season. In midlatitudes, it is strongest during noon. In addition, a clear difference between summer and winter storms is reported. While only winter storms develop high-latitude TEC enhancements, only summer storms typically exhibit TEC depletions during the storm recovery phase. During winter storms TEC enhancements can also occur the day following the storm onset, in contrast to summer storms. Strong correlation of TEC perturbation amplitudes to the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field and to a proxy of the polar cap potential are shown especially for summer midlatitude TEC enhancements during storms with and onset in the morning hours (6 to 12 UT over Europe) and for winter high-latitude TEC enhancements (around 60∘N). The results indicate the potential to derive improved predictions of maximum TEC deviations during space weather events, based on solar wind measurements.

Geometric effects of ICMEs on geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, KyungSuk; Lee, Jae-Ok

2017-04-01

It has been known that the geomagnetic storm is occurred by the interaction between the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) and the Earth's magnetosphere; especially, the southward Bz component of ICME is thought as the main trigger. In this study, we investigate the relationship between Dst index and solar wind conditions; which are the southward Bz, electric field (VBz), and time integral of electric field as well as ICME parameters derived from toroidal fitting model in order to find what is main factor to the geomagnetic storm. We also inspect locations of Earth in ICMEs to understand the geometric effects of the Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) on the geomagnetic storms. Among 59 CDAW ICME lists, we select 30 IFR events that are available by the toroidal fitting model and classify them into two sub-groups: geomagnetic storms associated with the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) and the compression regions ahead of the MCs (sheath). The main results are as follows: (1) The time integral of electric field has a higher correlation coefficient (cc) with Dst index than the other parameters: cc=0.85 for 25 MC events and cc=0.99 for 5 sheath events. (2) The sheath associated intense storms (Dst ≤-100nT) having usually occur at flank regions of ICMEs while the MC associated intense storms occur regardless of the locations of the Earth in ICMEs. The strength of a geomagnetic storm strongly depends on electric field of IFR and durations of the IFR passages through the Earth.

Altered dynamics of broad-leaved tree species in a Chinese subtropical montane mixed forest: the role of an anomalous extreme 2008 ice storm episode.

PubMed

Ge, Jielin; Xiong, Gaoming; Wang, Zhixian; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Changming; Shen, Guozhen; Xu, Wenting; Xie, Zongqiang

2015-04-01

Extreme climatic events can trigger gradual or abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation species. However, the impacts of these events on foundation species' demography and forest dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we quantified dynamics for both evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved species groups, utilizing a monitoring permanent plot in a subtropical montane mixed forest in central China from 2001 to 2010 with particular relevance to the anomalous 2008 ice storm episode. We found that both species groups showed limited floristic alterations over the study period. For each species group, size distribution of dead individuals approximated a roughly irregular and flat shape prior to the ice storm and resembled an inverse J-shaped distribution after the ice storm. Furthermore, patterns of mortality and recruitment displayed disequilibrium behaviors with mortality exceeding recruitment for both species groups following the ice storm. Deciduous broad-leaved species group accelerated overall diameter growth, but the ice storm reduced evergreen small-sized diameter growth. We concluded that evergreen broad-leaved species were more susceptible to ice storms than deciduous broad-leaved species, and ice storm events, which may become more frequent with climate change, might potentially threaten the perpetuity of evergreen-dominated broad-leaved forests in this subtropical region in the long term. These results underscore the importance of long-term monitoring that is indispensible to elucidate causal links between forest dynamics and climatic perturbations.

Contribution of storms to shoreline changes in mesotidal dissipative beaches: case study in the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puig, María; Del Río, Laura; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Benavente, Javier

2016-12-01

In this study an analysis of storminess and rates of shoreline change is performed and discussed jointly in four geomorphological units of the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain) for the period of 1956-2010. For this purpose, storm events are identified based on the following characteristics: wave height above 2.5 m, a minimum duration of 12 h and events with calm periods of less than 24 h were considered as a single event. Subsequently, energy parameters are determined in order to characterize storm-induced impacts. Conversely, geographic information system (GIS) tools are used to measure shoreline changes in aerial photographs and orthophotographs of each site, selecting the high water line as shoreline proxy. Each geomorphological unit is divided into different behavioural patterns according to recorded coastal changes, so that each one shows a particular behaviour.In general the variability of shoreline changes that is explained by storms and the relation between storm parameters and coastal changes present better results in exposed areas (Cádiz and Vistahermosa) than in sheltered areas (Valdelagrana spit barrier) because the former are more sensitive to storm impacts. On the contrary, in areas where there is no relation between coastal changes and storm parameters (Valdelagrana and Sancti Petri sand spit), it is suggested that anthropogenic factors are the main forcing agents determining shoreline behaviour. However, in these areas the storminess also modulates coastline recession by increasing erosion when the number of storms is high.

Altered dynamics of broad-leaved tree species in a Chinese subtropical montane mixed forest: the role of an anomalous extreme 2008 ice storm episode

PubMed Central

Ge, Jielin; Xiong, Gaoming; Wang, Zhixian; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Changming; Shen, Guozhen; Xu, Wenting; Xie, Zongqiang

2015-01-01

Extreme climatic events can trigger gradual or abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation species. However, the impacts of these events on foundation species' demography and forest dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we quantified dynamics for both evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved species groups, utilizing a monitoring permanent plot in a subtropical montane mixed forest in central China from 2001 to 2010 with particular relevance to the anomalous 2008 ice storm episode. We found that both species groups showed limited floristic alterations over the study period. For each species group, size distribution of dead individuals approximated a roughly irregular and flat shape prior to the ice storm and resembled an inverse J-shaped distribution after the ice storm. Furthermore, patterns of mortality and recruitment displayed disequilibrium behaviors with mortality exceeding recruitment for both species groups following the ice storm. Deciduous broad-leaved species group accelerated overall diameter growth, but the ice storm reduced evergreen small-sized diameter growth. We concluded that evergreen broad-leaved species were more susceptible to ice storms than deciduous broad-leaved species, and ice storm events, which may become more frequent with climate change, might potentially threaten the perpetuity of evergreen-dominated broad-leaved forests in this subtropical region in the long term. These results underscore the importance of long-term monitoring that is indispensible to elucidate causal links between forest dynamics and climatic perturbations. PMID:25897387

Revisiting the cold season surge generating storms of the east coast in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. E.; Kushnir, Y.; Booth, J. F.

2014-12-01

Cold season storms in the East coast of the United States often threaten the coastal livelihood. This is a study to connect the recorded extreme cold season surges with the storms in the past, spanning from the early 20th Century. We find the 20th century reanalysis data (20CR) useful for this study, for its temporal coverage sufficiently overlaps with the modern tidal records. The storm tracks are obtained from the cold season (NDJFMA) sea level pressure field from 20CR, using the popular tracking algorithm by K.Hodges. In seeking for fidelity in the storm data, we made two major efforts: The climatology and the known climate signals imbedded in the track data are verified against those of ERA-interim reanalysis, and against the storms tracked by an independent algorithm (GISS-MCMS). In addition, it is statistically confirmed that the storm tracks and the sea level pressure fields based on 20CR around the east coast area exhibit temporal homogeneity. In the Battery, we select top 100 cold season water displacement events from the 6-hour mean water height data from 1927 to 2012, with linear trend and tide removed. Among the tracks passing close enough to the Battery, we found 91 matches. Distinctive track characteristics stand out when the positive surge events are separated from the negative surge events. More characteristic parameters of the storms are investigated according to further surge classification.

Episodic Eolian Sand Deposition in the Past 4000 Years in Cape COD National Seashore, Massachusetts, USA in Response to Possible Hurricane/storm and Anthropogenic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forman, Steven

2015-02-01

The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and <250 years ago. The two oldest events are documented at just one locality and thus, the pervasiveness of this eolian activity is unknown. However, the four younger events are identified in three or more sites and show evidence for dune migration and sand sheet accretion. The timing of eolian deposition, particularly the initiation age, corresponds to documented periods of increased storminess/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

A case study of Ionospheric storm effects during long-lasting southward IMF Bz driven geomagnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Multiple instrumental observations including GPS TEC, foF2 and hmF2 from ionosondes, vertical ion drift measurements from C/NOFS, magnetometer data and far-ultraviolet airglow measured by TIMED/GUVI are used to investigate the profound ionospheric disturbances at mid- and low-latitudes during the 14-17 July 2012 geomagnetic storm event, which was featured by prolonged southward interplanetary geomagnetic field component for about 30 hours below -10 nT. In the East Asian/Australian sector, latitudinal profile of TEC variations in the main phase were characterized by three bands of increments and separated by weak depressions in the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) crest regions, which were caused by the combined effects of disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEF) and equatorward neutral winds. In the recovery phase, strong inhibition of EIA occurred and the summer crest of EIA disappeared on 16 July due to the combined effects of intrusion of neutral composition disturbance zone as shown by the TIME/GUVI O/N2 measurements and long-lasting daytime westward DDEF inferred from the equatorial electric electrojet (EEJ) observations. The transit time of DDEF over the dip equator from westward to eastward is around 2200 LT. In the American longitude, the salient ionospheric disturbances in the summer hemisphere were characterized by daytime periodical intrusion of negative phase for three consecutive days in the recovery phase, preceded by storm enhanced density (SED) plume in the initial phase. In addition, multiple short-lived prompt penetration electric fields (PPEF) appeared during stable southward IMF Bz in the recovery phase and were responsible for enhanced the EIA and equatorial ionospheric uplift around sunset.

A case study of ionospheric storm effects during long-lasting southward IMF Bz-driven geomagnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jing; Liu, Libo; Nakamura, Takuji; Zhao, Biqiang; Ning, Baiqi; Yoshikawa, A.

2014-09-01

Multiple instrumental observations including GPS total electron content (TEC), foF2 and hmF2 from ionosondes, vertical ion drift measurements from Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System, magnetometer data, and far ultraviolet airglow measured by Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Global Ultraviolet Imager (TIMED/GUVI) are used to investigate the profound ionospheric disturbances at midlatitude and low latitude during the 14-17 July 2012 geomagnetic storm event, which was featured by prolonged southward interplanetary geomagnetic field component for about 30 h below -10 nT. In the East Asian/Australian sector, latitudinal profile of TEC variations in the main phase were characterized by three bands of increments and separated by weak depressions in the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) crest regions, which were caused by the combined effects of disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEF) and equatorward neutral winds. In the recovery phase, strong inhibition of EIA occurred and the summer crest of EIA disappeared on 16 July due to the combined effects of intrusion of neutral composition disturbance zone as shown by the TIMED/GUVI O/N2 measurements and long-lasting daytime westward DDEF inferred from the equatorial electrojet observations. The transit time of DDEF over the dip equator from westward to eastward is around 2200 LT. In the American longitude, the salient ionospheric disturbances in the summer hemisphere were characterized by daytime periodical intrusion of negative phase for three consecutive days in the recovery phase, preceded by storm-enhanced density plume in the initial phase. In addition, multiple short-lived prompt penetration electric fields appeared during stable southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz in the recovery phase and were responsible for enhanced the EIA and equatorial ionospheric uplift around sunset.

Introduction to violent Sun-Earth connection events of October-November 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Barbieri, L.; Cliver, E. W.; Lu, G.; Plunkett, S. P.; Skoug, R. M.

2005-09-01

The solar-terrestrial events of late October and early November 2003, popularly referred to as the Halloween storms, represent the best observed cases of extreme space weather activity observed to date and have generated research covering multiple aspects of solar eruptions and their space weather effects. In the following article, which serves as an abstract for this collective research, we present highlights taken from 61 of the 74 papers from the Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, and Space Weather which are linked under this special issue. (An overview of the 13 associated papers published in Geophysics Research Letters is given in the work of Gopalswamy et al. (2005a)).

Importance of storm events in controlling ecosystem structure and function in a Florida Gulf Coast estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, S. E.; Cable, J.E.; Childers, D.L.; Coronado-Molina, C.; Day, J.W.; Hittle, C.D.; Madden, C.J.; Reyes, E.; Rudnick, D.; Sklar, F.

2004-01-01

From 8/95 to 2/01, we investigated the ecological effects of intra- and inter-annual variability in freshwater flow through Taylor Creek in southeastern Everglades National Park. Continuous monitoring and intensive sampling studies overlapped with an array of pulsed weather events that impacted physical, chemical, and biological attributes of this region. We quantified the effects of three events representing a range of characteristics (duration, amount of precipitation, storm intensity, wind direction) on the hydraulic connectivity, nutrient and sediment dynamics, and vegetation structure of the SE Everglades estuarine ecotone. These events included a strong winter storm in November 1996, Tropical Storm Harvey in September 1999, and Hurricane Irene in October 1999. Continuous hydrologic and daily water sample data were used to examine the effects of these events on the physical forcing and quality of water in Taylor Creek. A high resolution, flow-through sampling and mapping approach was used to characterize water quality in the adjacent bay. To understand the effects of these events on vegetation communities, we measured mangrove litter production and estimated seagrass cover in the bay at monthly intervals. We also quantified sediment deposition associated with Hurricane Irene's flood surge along the Buttonwood Ridge. These three events resulted in dramatic changes in surface water movement and chemistry in Taylor Creek and adjacent regions of Florida Bay as well as increased mangrove litterfall and flood surge scouring of seagrass beds. Up to 5 cm of bay-derived mud was deposited along the ridge adjacent to the creek in this single pulsed event. These short-term events can account for a substantial proportion of the annual flux of freshwater and materials between the mangrove zone and Florida Bay. Our findings shed light on the capacity of these storm events, especially when in succession, to have far reaching and long lasting effects on coastal ecosystems such as the estuarine ecotone of the SE Everglades.

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Changes in the Mechanisms Causing Rapid Drought Cessation in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin T.; Knapp, Paul A.; Ortegren, Jason T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Soulé, Peter T.

2017-12-01

The synoptic processes that end droughts are poorly understood, yet have significant climatological implications. Here we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of rapid drought cessation (RDC) in the southeastern United States during the1979-2013 warm season (April-November) for three storm types: Frontal, Tropical, and Air mass. We defined RDC as a 1 month shift in soil moisture sufficient to alleviate an existing drought. We found that 73% of all warm-season droughts were ended by RDC events and the three storm-type groups ended droughts over similar spatial areas. Frontal storms were the most frequent mechanism for RDC events, yet their occurrences significantly decreased and were negatively related to increases in Northern Hemisphere air temperatures. Projected future warming in the Northern Hemisphere suggests a continued decline in the frequency and relative contribution of Frontal storms as RDC events, potentially influencing the timing and spatial scale of drought cessation in the southeastern U.S.

Dust storms and the risk of asthma admissions to hospitals in Kuwait.

PubMed

Thalib, Lukman; Al-Taiar, Abdullah

2012-09-01

Arid areas in the Arabian Peninsula are one of the largest sources of global dust, yet there is no data on the impact of this on human health. This study aimed to investigate the impact of dust storms on hospital admissions due to asthma and all respiratory diseases over a period of 5 years in Kuwait. A population-based retrospective time series study of daily emergency asthma admissions and admissions due to respiratory causes in public hospitals in Kuwait was analyzed in relation to dust storm events. Dust storm days were defined as the mean daily PM(10)>200 μg/m(3) based on measurements obtained from all six monitoring sites in the country. During the five-year study period, 569 (33.6%) days had dust storm events and they were significantly associated with an increased risk of same-day asthma and respiratory admission, adjusted relative risk of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02-1.12) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.04-1.08), respectively. This was particularly evident among children. Dust storms have a significant impact on respiratory and asthma admissions. Evidence is more convincing and robust compared to that from other geographical settings which highlights the importance of public health measures to protect people's health during dust storms and reduce the burden on health services due to dust events. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Identification of Hail Storms in the Early Stage Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Shi, Jinyu; Hou, Jinyi; Hu, Yan

2018-01-01

This study investigates the characteristics of hail storms and cumulonimbus storms in China from 2005 to 2016. Ten features are proposed to identify storm cells that can produce hail, especially in the early stage of hail formation. These features describe hail storms based on three factors: the height and thickness of the cell core, the radar echo intensity, and the overhang structure and the horizontal reflectivity gradient. The 10 features are transformed into two-dimensional comprehensive features by principal component analysis (PCA). The two comprehensive features are named the volume measurement comprehensive feature (VMCF) and the height-gradient comprehensive feature (HGCF). Through an analysis of 49 hail cases and 35 heavy rainfall cases with S-band radar data, the time series exhibit a distinct increase in VMCF or HGCF values in the early stage of a hail storm. However, the VMCF and HGCF values of heavy rainfall events remain relatively stable throughout the storm life cycle. An experiment involving real-storm events, including 31 hail cases and 33 heavy rainfall cases, indicated that the probability of detection of hail storms was 93.33% and the false alarm ratio was 15.66%. In the cases that could be successfully identified as hail storms, 80.00% were detected within 18 min of reaching a hail storm reflectivity of 40 dBZ.

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

The "perfect storm" in compensation: convergence of events leads to a greater need to review compensation strategies.

PubMed

Jones, Robert B

2004-01-01

The recent unprecedented convergence of significant strategic events in the compensation arena has created the need for ongoing and extensive compensation planning. This article reviews the events leading to this point, describes the implications of the results from a recent Aon study with WorldatWork, and suggests what employers can do to successfully navigate the "perfect storm" in compensation.

Tracking the evolution of stream DOM source during storm events using end member mixing analysis based on DOM quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liyang; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang; Hur, Jin

2015-04-01

The source of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events has not been well constrained, which is critical in determining the quality and reactivity of DOM. This study assessed temporal changes in the contributions of four end members (weeds, leaf litter, soil, and groundwater), which exist in a small forested watershed (the Ehwa Brook, South Korea), to the stream DOM during two storm events, using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) based on spectroscopic properties of DOM. The instantaneous export fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chromophoric DOM (CDOM), and fluorescent components were all enhanced during peak flows. The DOC concentration increased with the flow rate, while CDOM and humic-like fluorescent components were diluted around the peak flows. Leaf litter was dominant for the DOM source in event 2 with a higher rainfall, although there were temporal variations in the contributions of the four end members to the stream DOM for both events. The contribution of leaf litter peaked while that of deeper soils decreased to minima at peak flows. Our results demonstrated that EMMA based on DOM properties could be used to trace the DOM source, which is of fundamental importance for understanding the factors responsible for river DOM dynamics during storm events.

Association of time of occurrence of electrical heart storms with environmental physical activity.

PubMed

Stoupel, Eliiyahu; Kusniec, Jairo; Golovchiner, Gregory; Abramson, Evgeny; Kadmon, Udi; Strasberg, Boris

2014-08-01

Many publications in recent decades have reported a temporal link between medical events and environmental physical activity. The aim of this study was to analyze the time of occurrence of electrical heart storms against levels of cosmological parameters. The sample included 82 patients (71 male) with ischemic cardiomyopathy treated with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator at a tertiary medical center in 1999-2012 (5,114 days). The time of occurrence of all electrical heart storms, defined as three or more events of ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation daily, was recorded from the defibrillator devices. Findings were analyzed against data on solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray (neutron) activity for the same time period obtained from space institutions in the United States and Russia. Electrical storms occurred in all months of the year, with a slight decrease in July, August, and September. Most events took place on days with lower-than-average levels of solar and geomagnetic activity and higher-than-average levels of cosmic ray (neutron) activity. There was a significant difference in mean daily cosmic ray activity between the whole observation period and the days of electrical storm activity (P = 0.0001). These data extend earlier findings on the association of the timing of cardiac events and space weather parameters to the most dangerous form of cardiac arrhythmia-electric storms. Further studies are needed to delineate the pathogenetic mechanism underlying this association. ©2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing dry weather flow contribution in TSS and COD storm events loads in combined sewer systems.

PubMed

Métadier, M; Bertrand-Krajewski, J L

2011-01-01

Continuous high resolution long term turbidity measurements along with continuous discharge measurements are now recognised as an appropriate technique for the estimation of in sewer total suspended solids (TSS) and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) loads during storm events. In the combined system of the Ecully urban catchment (Lyon, France), this technique is implemented since 2003, with more than 200 storm events monitored. This paper presents a method for the estimation of the dry weather (DW) contribution to measured total TSS and COD event loads with special attention devoted to uncertainties assessment. The method accounts for the dynamics of both discharge and turbidity time series at two minutes time step. The study is based on 180 DW days monitored in 2007-2008. Three distinct classes of DW days were evidenced. Variability analysis and quantification showed that no seasonal effect and no trend over the year were detectable. The law of propagation of uncertainties is applicable for uncertainties estimation. The method has then been applied to all measured storm events. This study confirms the interest of long term continuous discharge and turbidity time series in sewer systems, especially in the perspective of wet weather quality modelling.

Development of a new morphometric to assess beach storm response and recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, O.; Hapke, C. J.

2014-12-01

Various morphometrics are used to measure coastal change over a variety of time scales including shoreline, dune elevation and position, and beach profile volume. Each has limitations, many of which became apparent in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, including the juxtaposition of levelled dunes and a substantially prograded shoreline. In order to understand sustained beach behavior, including recovery after Hurricane Sandy, we develop a new morphometric - an upper beach change envelope (BCE) specific to Fire Island, NY. The upper beach better captures impacts from more frequent moderate storms during which there may be substantial beach change but less impact to the dune, and is less subject to the variable fluctuations nearer to the shoreline that only marginally influence future vulnerability and overall coastal resilience. The BCE can also be used to quantify the gradual recovery of the beach after storm events and is not reliant on the presence of a morphologic feature such as a dune, which may take many years to recover after a severe storm.The BCE at Fire Island is based on a time series of historical response to storms. The BCE boundaries are elevation contours that capture the portion of the upper beach that experiences erosion during moderate nor'easter events but is above the influence of tides and lesser events. In an application of the BCE concept, we use the BCE boundary elevations to quantify beach response from Hurricane Sandy and document the subsequent recovery, using a time series of post-Sandy elevation contours. The data include 10 profile sites from Fire Island that were surveyed multiple times from October 2012 to June 2014. Utilizing this time series we measure changes in the cross shore position of the BCE elevation boundaries. Initial assessments indicate the BCE successfully captures coastal response through time, including extensive change during Hurricane Sandy as well as subsequent seasonal changes. The recent data indicate there is a temporal trend towards widening of the BCE, due to sustained progradation of the lower boundary. This trend may represent a new "recovery state" of the beach which is wider than the pre-Sandy beach, providing an increase in the fetch that favors the aeolian processes of dune reformation.

Testing GIC Mitigation Protocols by Modelling Transformer-Level GIC Flow in New Zealand's Electrical Transmission Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divett, T.; Ingham, M.; Rodger, C. J.; Richardson, G. S.; Beggan, C.; Thomson, A. W. P.; Dalzell, M.; Mac Manus, D. H.

2017-12-01

Transformers in the South Island of Transpower New Zealand Ltd's electrical transmission network have been impacted by geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) during geomagnetic storms, including the November 2001 event. We aim to make recommendations that lead to improving mitigation strategies for reducing these impacts during extreme events. We have adapted a thin-sheet electromagnetic and GIC network modelling approach that has previously been successfully used in the UK to New Zealand's geology and transmission network. In this presentation we show how we have used this approach to explore Transpower's mitigation procedure as well as alternative mitigation options for reducing the impact of space weather on the network. In order to compare modelled GIC with what has been described as `possibly the best GIC dataset in the world' (Boteler and Pirjola, Pers. Comm. 2016) our model includes every transformer and every high voltage transmission line in the South Island network. This level of detail was required to match the transformer level observations of GIC in the network and to appropriately assess the mitigation options at the level where the damage to power networks occurs. We found that removing a single generator at a central power station and four transmission lines is enough to effectively redistribute GIC away from transformers that have previously experienced very high GIC (as shown in Figure). The redistributed GIC is less damaging to the transformers that it is redistributed to due to lower total GIC at those locations. In the past the impact of GIC on transformers has occurred in the first two minutes of a storm. Hence, mitigation strategies that currently rely on human intervention and involving delays of up to 15 minutes may need to be initiated very rapidly, in a significant departure from Transpower's existing protocol. Reducing delays should significantly reduce the potential for damage in a storm equivalent to the 2001 event. During an extreme storm we expect GIC of 300 A or more to flow through multiple transformers across both islands. In the case of an extreme storm we suggest the more drastic approach of floating the entire network to reduce the potential for damage while retaining power supply to the majority of the country.

Hurdles to Overcome to Model Carrington Class Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, M.; Henderson, M. G.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.

2017-12-01

Large geomagnetic storms pose a threat to both space and ground based infrastructure. In order to help mitigate that threat a better understanding of the specifics of these storms is required. Various computer models are being used around the world to analyze the magnetospheric environment, however they are largely inadequate for analyzing the large and extreme storm time environments. Here we report on the first steps towards expanding and robustifying the RAM-SCB inner magnetospheric model, used in conjunction with BATS-R-US and the Space Weather Modeling Framework, in order to simulate storms with Dst > -400. These results will then be used to help expand our modelling capabilities towards including Carrington-class events.

Evidence of extreme storm events from coral boulder deposits on the southern coast of Hainan Island, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L.; Gao, S.

2017-12-01

The southern coast of Hainan Island in China is one of the most frequently hit areas of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Northwest regions. Long-term storm data are important to reconstruct past extreme wave events, for understanding present-day coastal vulnerability. However, the magnitude of storm and typhoon events in the historical period over the northwestern South China Sea is still poorly understood. A primary study was carried out to investigate into the characteristics of a carbonate boulder field found at the Xiaodonghai (XDH) site on the southern coast of Hainan Island, in order to derive the maximum spatial extent, wave height, and velocity of coastal flooding and to determine the type of extreme wave events responsible for the boulder distributions. We recorded the position, shape, size, and the long axis orientation of 1247 of the boulders, with the a-axes being between 0.52 and 3.76 m. A morphometric analysis of the boulders shows that they are distributed within 160 m of the reef edge, with an exponential fining trend shoreward. Numerical models are used to estimate the minimum wave height and minimum flow velocity required to move these boulders. Flow velocities of 1.76-14.73 m/s and storm wave height of 0.47-15.87 m are needed to displace the measured boulders deposited near the mean sea level. These values are consistent with the dataset of storm boulder transport at other sites in the Asia-Pacific region and local instrumental records. Overall, the carbonate boulder deposits at the XDH site implies that the area is exposed to giant storm waves capable of displacing the very large boulders observed here. The recurrence of a similar storm event in the future will have the potential to cause severe coastal flooding damage on this densely populated part of the low-lying coastlines of Hainan Island.

Using high-frequency sensors to identify hydroclimatological controls on storm-event variability in catchment nutrient fluxes and source zone activation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaen, Phillip; Khamis, Kieran; Lloyd, Charlotte; Krause, Stefan

2017-04-01

At the river catchment scale, storm events can drive highly variable behaviour in nutrient and water fluxes, yet short-term dynamics are frequently missed by low resolution sampling regimes. In addition, nutrient source contributions can vary significantly within and between storm events. Our inability to identify and characterise time dynamic source zone contributions severely hampers the adequate design of land use management practices in order to control nutrient exports from agricultural landscapes. Here, we utilise an 8-month high-frequency (hourly) time series of streamflow, nitrate concentration (NO3) and fluorescent dissolved organic matter concentration (FDOM) derived from optical in-situ sensors located in a headwater agricultural catchment. We characterised variability in flow and nutrient dynamics across 29 storm events. Storm events represented 31% of the time series and contributed disproportionately to nutrient loads (43% of NO3 and 36% of CDOM) relative to their duration. Principal components analysis of potential hydroclimatological controls on nutrient fluxes demonstrated that a small number of components, representing >90% of variance in the dataset, were highly significant model predictors of inter-event variability in catchment nutrient export. Hysteresis analysis of nutrient concentration-discharge relationships suggested spatially discrete source zones existed for NO3 and FDOM, and that activation of these zones varied on an event-specific basis. Our results highlight the benefits of high-frequency in-situ monitoring for characterising complex short-term nutrient dynamics and unravelling connections between hydroclimatological variability and river nutrient export and source zone activation under extreme flow conditions. These new process-based insights are fundamental to underpinning the development of targeted management measures to reduce nutrient loading of surface waters.

Storm runoff quality and pollutant loading from commercial, residential, and industrial catchments in the tropic.

PubMed

Chow, M F; Yusop, Z; Shirazi, S M

2013-10-01

Information on the pollution level and the influence of hydrologic regime on the stormwater pollutant loading in tropical urban areas are still scarce. More local data are still required because rainfall and runoff generation processes in tropical environment are very different from the temperate regions. This study investigated the extent of urban runoff pollution in residential, commercial, and industrial catchments in the south of Peninsular Malaysia. Stormwater samples and flow rate data were collected from 51 storm events. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease (O&G), nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus, total phosphorus (TP), and zinc (Zn). It was found that the event mean concentrations (EMCs) of pollutants varied greatly between storm characteristics and land uses. The results revealed that site EMCs for residential catchment were lower than the published data but higher for the commercial and industrial catchments. All rainfall variables were negatively correlated with EMCs of most pollutants except for antecedent dry days (ADD). This study reinforced the earlier findings on the importance of ADD for causing greater EMC values with exceptions for O&G, NO3-N, TP, and Zn. In contrast, the pollutant loadings are influenced primarily by rainfall depth, mean intensity, and max 5-min intensity in all the three catchments. Overall, ADD is an important variable in multiple linear regression models for predicting the EMC values in the tropical urban catchments.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

A History of the Martian Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKim, R. J.

2005-08-01

The author reviews historical observations of Martian dust storms from the earliest telescopic records up to the present day (see R.J.McKim, Telescopic Martian Dust Storms: A Narrative and Catalogue, Memoirs of the British Astronomical Association, volume 44, 1999 (166 pp)). The earliest record begins with Maraldi in 1704. The term ``yellow cloud" was coined by Burton (1879). The first event which attracted much attention was the regional dust storm of 1894 October-November. The first planet-encircling event was that of 1909. The daily evolution of dust storms began to be studied in 1911; photography would not help until 1922. Other milestones in our understanding of the phenomenon are illustrated and explained. The telescopic literature is littered with errors of fact and interpretation, and the author describes some of the pitfalls and successes in the analysis of old telescopic records.

Restructuring of the Aquatic Bacterial Community by Hydric Dynamics Associated with Superstorm Sandy

PubMed Central

Ulrich, Nikea; Rosenberger, Abigail; Brislawn, Colin; Wright, Justin; Kessler, Collin; Toole, David; Solomon, Caroline; Strutt, Steven; McClure, Erin

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacterial community composition and longitudinal fluctuations were monitored in a riverine system during and after Superstorm Sandy to better characterize inter- and intracommunity responses associated with the disturbance associated with a 100-year storm event. High-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene was used to assess microbial community structure within water samples from Muddy Creek Run, a second-order stream in Huntingdon, PA, at 12 different time points during the storm event (29 October to 3 November 2012) and under seasonally matched baseline conditions. High-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene was used to track changes in bacterial community structure and divergence during and after Superstorm Sandy. Bacterial community dynamics were correlated to measured physicochemical parameters and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations. Bioinformatics analyses of 2.1 million 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed a significant increase in bacterial diversity in samples taken during peak discharge of the storm. Beta-diversity analyses revealed longitudinal shifts in the bacterial community structure. Successional changes were observed, in which Betaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria decreased in 16S rRNA gene relative abundance, while the relative abundance of members of the Firmicutes increased. Furthermore, 16S rRNA gene sequences matching pathogenic bacteria, including strains of Legionella, Campylobacter, Arcobacter, and Helicobacter, as well as bacteria of fecal origin (e.g., Bacteroides), exhibited an increase in abundance after peak discharge of the storm. This study revealed a significant restructuring of in-stream bacterial community structure associated with hydric dynamics of a storm event. IMPORTANCE In order to better understand the microbial risks associated with freshwater environments during a storm event, a more comprehensive understanding of the variations in aquatic bacterial diversity is warranted. This study investigated the bacterial communities during and after Superstorm Sandy to provide fine time point resolution of dynamic changes in bacterial composition. This study adds to the current literature by revealing the variation in bacterial community structure during the course of a storm. This study employed high-throughput DNA sequencing, which generated a deep analysis of inter- and intracommunity responses during a significant storm event. This study has highlighted the utility of applying high-throughput sequencing for water quality monitoring purposes, as this approach enabled a more comprehensive investigation of the bacterial community structure. Altogether, these data suggest a drastic restructuring of the stream bacterial community during a storm event and highlight the potential of high-throughput sequencing approaches for assessing the microbiological quality of our environment. PMID:27060115

POM Pulses: Characterizing the Physical and Chemical Properties of Particulate Organic Matter (POM) Mobilized by Large Storm Events and its Influence on Receiving Fluvial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Protokowicz, J.; Inamdar, S. P.; Kan, J.; Vargas, R.

2016-12-01

Extreme storm events have tremendous erosive energy which is capable of mobilizing vast amounts of material from watershed sources into fluvial systems. This complex mixture of sediment and particulate organic matter (POM) is a nutrient source, and has the potential to impact downstream water quality. The impact of POM on receiving aquatic systems can vary not only by the total amount exported but also by the various sources involved and the particle sizes of POM. This study examines the composition of POM in potential sources and within-event POM by: (1) determining the amount and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) that can be leached from coarse, medium and fine particle classes; (2) assessing the C and N content and isotopic character of within-event POM; and (3) coupling physical and chemical properties to evaluate storm event POM influence on stream water. Storm event POM samples and source sediments were collected from a forested headwater catchment (second order stream) in the Piedmont region of Maryland. Samples were sieved into three particle classes - coarse (2mm-1mm), medium (1mm-250µm) and fine (<250µm). Extractions were performed for three particle class sizes and the resulting fluorescent organic matter was analyzed. Carbon (C) and Nitrogen (N) amount, C:N ratio, and isotopic analysis of 13C and 15N were performed on solid state event and source material. Future work will include examination of microbial communities associated with POM particle size classes. Physical size class separation of within-event POM exhibited differences in C:N ratios, δ15N composition, and extracted DOM lability. Smaller size classes exhibited lower C:N ratios, more enriched δ15N and more recalcitrant properties in leached DOM. Source material had varying C:N ratios and contributions to leached DOM. These results indicate that both source and size class strongly influence the POM contribution to fluvial systems during large storm events.

Characterizing Storm Event Dynamics of a Forested Watershed in the Lower Atlantic Coastal Plain, South Carolina USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latorre Torres, I. B.; Amatya, D. M.; Callahan, T. J.; Levine, N. S.

2007-12-01

Hydrology research in the Southeast U.S. has primarily focused on upland mountainous areas; however, much less is known about hydrological processes in Lower Coastal Plain (LCP) watersheds. Such watersheds are difficult to characterize due to shallow water table conditions, low topographic gradient, complex surface- subsurface water interaction, and lack of detailed soil information. Although opportunities to conduct long term monitoring in relatively undeveloped watersheds are often limited, stream flow and rainfall in the Turkey Creek watershed (third-order watershed, about 7200 ha in the Francis Marion National Forest near Charleston, SC) have been monitored since 1964. In this study, event runoff-rainfall ratios have been determined for 51 storm events using historical data from 1964-1973. One of our objectives was to characterize relationships between seasonal event rainfall and storm outflow in this watershed. To this end, observed storm event data were compared with values predicted by established hydrological methods such as the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number (SCS-CN) and the rational method integrated within a Geographical Information System (GIS), to estimate total event runoff and peak discharge, respectively. Available 1:15000 scale aerial images were digitized to obtain land uses, which were used with the SCS soil hydrologic groups to obtain the runoff coefficients (C) for the rational method and the CN values for the SCS-CN method. These methods are being tested with historical storm event responses in the Turkey Creek watershed scale, and then will be used to predict event runoff in Quinby Creek, an ungauged third-order watershed (8700 ha) adjacent to Turkey Creek. Successful testing with refinement of parameters in the rational method and SCS-CN method, both designed for small urban and agricultural dominated watersheds, may allow widespread application of these methods for studying the event rainfall-runoff dynamics for similar watersheds in the Lower Coastal Plain of the Southeast U.S.

Using XRF Geochemical Data to Differentiate Storm Event Deposits in a Backbarrier Lake in Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, M.; Liu, K. B.; Bianchette, T. A.; Yao, Q.; McCloskey, T.

2016-12-01

Hurricanes Gustav and Ike consecutively impacted coastal Louisiana in 2008 and generated significant storm surges. Three sediment cores taken from Bay Champagne, a coastal backbarrier lake near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, clearly show a deposition layer of clastic sediment up to 17 cm thick attributable to these two storms. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis indicates that the two storm events can be distinguished from one another based on contrasting geochemical profiles. The bottom layer, presumably deposited by Hurricane Gustav, has high concentrations of S, Cl, Ca, and Sr, suggesting a strong marine influence. The top layer, presumably attributed to Hurricane Ike, has high concentrations of Ti, Mn, Fe and Zn, indicative of material of terrestrial origin. The elemental concentration profiles suggest that the storm deposits in each core were deposited through two distinct hydrological processes: a storm surge -driven marine intrusion during Hurricane Gustav, followed by intensive freshwater flooding during Hurricane Ike. Using these deposits as modern analogs, this technique could be applied to characterize older storm layers in the sedimentary record and potentially provide information about their respective depositional mechanisms.

Subtropical Dust Storms and Downslope Wind Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

2017-10-01

We performed detailed mesoscale observational analyses and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to study the terrain-induced downslope winds that generated dust-emitting winds at the beginning of three strong subtropical dust storms in three distinctly different regions of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. We revisit the Harmattan dust storm of 2 March 2004, the Saudi dust storm of 9 March 2009, and the Bodélé Depression dust storm of 8 December 2011 and use high-resolution WRF modeling to assess the dynamical processes during the onset of the storms in more depth. Our results highlight the generation of terrain-induced downslope winds in response to the transition of the atmospheric flow from a subcritical to supercritical state in all three cases. These events precede the unbalanced adjustment processes in the lee of the mountain ranges that produced larger-scale dust aerosol mobilization and transport. We see that only the higher-resolution data sets can resolve the mesoscale processes, which are mainly responsible for creating strong low-level terrain-induced downslope winds leading to the initial dust storms.

Sorted bedform pattern evolution: Persistence, destruction and self-organized intermittency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Evan B.; Murray, A. Brad; Coco, Giovanni

2011-12-01

We investigate the long-term evolution of inner continental shelf sorted bedform patterns. Numerical modeling suggests that a range of behaviors are possible, from pattern persistence to spatial-temporal intermittency. Sorted bedform persistence results from a robust sorting feedback that operates when the seabed features a sufficient concentration of coarse material. In the absence of storm events, pattern maturation processes such as defect dynamics and pattern migration tend to cause the burial of coarse material and excavation of fine material, leading to the fining of the active layer. Vertical sorting occurs until a critical state of active layer coarseness is reached. This critical state results in the local cessation of the sorting feedback, leading to a self-organized spatially intermittent pattern, a hallmark of observed sorted bedforms. Bedforms in shallow conditions and those subject to high wave climates may be temporally intermittent features as a result of increased wave orbital velocity during storms. Erosion, or deposition of bimodal sediment, similarly leads to a spatially intermittent pattern, with individual coarse domains exhibiting temporal intermittence. Recurring storm events cause coarsening of the seabed (strengthening the sorting feedback) and the development of large wavelength patterns. Cessation of storm events leads to the superposition of storm (large wavelength) and inter-storm (small wavelength) patterns and spatial heterogeneity of pattern modes.

Low latitude ionospheric TEC responses to dynamical complexity quantifiers during transient events over Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunsua, Babalola

2018-04-01

In this study, the values of chaoticity and dynamical complexity parameters for some selected storm periods in the year 2011 and 2012 have been computed. This was done using detrended TEC data sets measured from Birnin-Kebbi, Torro and Enugu global positioning system (GPS) receiver stations in Nigeria. It was observed that the significance of difference (SD) values were mostly greater than 1.96 but surprisingly lower than 1.96 in September 29, 2011. The values of the computed SD were also found to be reduced in most cases just after the geomagnetic storm with immediate recovery a day after the main phase of the storm while the values of Lyapunov exponent and Tsallis entropy remains reduced due to the influence of geomagnetic storms. It was also observed that the value of Lyapunov exponent and Tsallis entropy reveals similar variation pattern during storm period in most cases. Also recorded surprisingly were lower values of these dynamical quantifiers during the solar flare event of August 8th and 9th of the year 2011. The possible mechanisms responsible for these observations were further discussed in this work. However, our observations show that the ionospheric effects of some other possible transient events other than geomagnetic storms can also be revealed by the variation of chaoticity and dynamical complexity.

Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

2007-01-01

Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; van der Wiel, Karin; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah F.; Uhe, Peter; Cullen, Heidi

2018-02-01

On 4-6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%-97.5% confidence interval of 5%-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month.

Database Design for the Evaluation of On-shore and Off-Shore Storm Characteristics over East Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Amy A.; Wilson, Jennifer G.; Brown, Robert G.

2015-01-01

Data from multiple sources is needed to investigate lightning characteristics over differing terrain (on-shore vs. off-shore) by comparing natural cloud-to-ground lightning behavior differences depending on the characteristics of attachment mediums. The KSC Lightning Research Database (KLRD) was created to reduce manual data entry time and aid research by combining information from various data sources into a single record for each unique lightning event of interest. The KLRD uses automatic data handling functions to import data from a lightning detection network and identify and record lighting events of interest. Additional automatic functions import data from the NASA Buoy 41009 (located approximately 20 miles off the coast) and the KSC Electric Field Mill network, then match these electric field mill values to the corresponding lightning events. The KLRD calculates distances between each lightning event and the various electric field mills, aids in identifying the location type for each stroke (i.e., on-shore vs. off-shore, etc.), provides statistics on the number of strokes per flash, and produces customizable reports for quick retrieval and logical display of data. Data from February 2014 to date covers 48 unique storm dates with 2295 flashes containing 5700 strokes, of which 2612 are off-shore and 1003 are on-shore. The number of strokes per flash ranges from 1 to 22. The ratio of single to subsequent stroke flashes is 1.29 for off-shore strokes and 2.19 for on-shore strokes.

N : P stoichiometry in a forested runoff during storm events: comparisons with regions and vegetation types.

PubMed

Guo, Lanlan; Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko

2012-01-01

Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

N : P Stoichiometry in a Forested Runoff during Storm Events: Comparisons with Regions and Vegetation Types

PubMed Central

Guo, Lanlan; Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko

2012-01-01

Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo. PMID:22547978

Evaluation of a Socio-Hydrologic Model for the Rebuilding of Biloxi, Mississippi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, J. L.; O'Donnell, F. C.; Burton, C. G.

2017-12-01

In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina ripped through the Gulf Coast of the United States causing billions in damage. The storm cost the City of Biloxi, Mississippi $355 million in infrastructure repair, which is being constructed with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Approximately 30% of the city's storm systems including storm drains, bridges and culverts are being replaced and updated utilizing FEMA Hazard Mitigation funding to lessen the impact of future natural disasters. The infrastructure is being upgraded from conveying a 4% annual chance storm event to a 1% annual chance storm event. An extensive socio-economic data set of the impacts of Hurricane Katrina along the Mississippi Gulf Coast was used to analyze recovery in the area. The recovery data set assessed the area directly after the storm in 2005 thru 2010 with an analysis of recovery five years after the storm. This study uses a dynamic socio-hydrologic model with modifications to relate the change in flow capacity of engineered structures and socio-economic processes. The results will be used to assess the hypothesis that raising flood protection increases the base flood elevation levels and therefore requires a higher level of flood protection. The increase in flood protect eases the fears of the community leading them to not require additional flood protection when developing in flood prone areas and strengthening the socio-hydrologic association. The results will also be evaluated to create a tool for the City of Biloxi to improve their resilience from future hurricanes and storm surge events.

Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.

2012-12-01

Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goennert, G.; Buß, Th.; Mueller, O.; Thumm, S.

2009-04-01

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea Gabriele Gönnert, Olaf Müller, Thomas Buß and Sigrid Thumm Climate Change will cause a rise of the sea level and probably more frequent and more violent storm surges. This has serious consequences for the safety of people as well as for their values and assets behind the dikes. It is therefore inevitable to first assess how sea level rise and an extreme storm surge event designes. In a second step it is possible to determine the risk for specific locations and develop strategies. The Project XtremRisk - Extreme Storm Surges at the North Sea Coast and in Estuaries. Risk calculation and risk strategies, funded by the German Federal Government will help answering these questions. The „Source-Pathway-Receptor" Concept will be used as a basis for risk analysis and development of new strategies. The Project offers methods to assess the development of extreme events under the conditions of today. Under conditions reflecting the climate change it will be tried to design an extreme event. For these three main points will be considered: a) Analysis and calculation of each factor, which produce a storm surge and its maximum level occurring in the last 100 years. These are: - maximum surge level: surge (due to the wind), - influence of the tide and the interaction between surge and tide, - influence of external surges , b) The hydrodynamics of a storm surge cause nonlinear effects in the interaction of the named factors. These factors and effects will both be taken into account to calculate the magnitude of the extreme storm surge. This step is very complex and need additional examination by numerical models. c) Analysis of the different scenarios to mean sea level rise and to the increase of wind speed due to the climate change. The presentation will introduce methods and show first results of the analysis of extreme events and the mean sea level rise.

Urbanisation impacts on storm runoff along a rural-urban gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, James David; Hess, Tim

2017-09-01

Urbanisation alters the hydrological response of catchments to storm events and spatial measures of urban extent and imperviousness are routinely used in hydrological modelling and attribution of runoff response to land use changes. This study evaluates whether a measure of catchment urban extent can account for differences in runoff generation from storm events along an rural-urban gradient. We employed a high-resolution monitoring network across 8 catchments in the south of the UK - ranging from predominantly rural to heavily urbanised - over a four year period, and from this selected 336 storm events. Hydrological response was compared using volume- and scaled time-based hydrograph metrics within a statistical framework that considered the effect of antecedent soil moisture. Clear differences were found between rural and urban catchments, however above a certain threshold of urban extent runoff volume was relatively unaffected by changes and runoff response times were highly variable between catchments due to additional hydraulic controls. Results indicate a spatial measure of urbanisation can generally explain differences in the hydrological response between rural and urban catchments but is insufficient to explain differences between urban catchments along an urban gradient. Antecedent soil moisture alters the volume and timing of runoff generated in catchments with large rural areas, but was not found to affect the runoff response where developed areas are much greater. The results of this study suggest some generalised relationships between urbanisation and storm runoff are not represented in observed storm events and point to limitations in using a simplified representations of the urban environment for attribution of storm runoff in small urban catchments. The study points to the need for enhanced hydrologically relevant catchment descriptors specific to small urban catchments and more focused research on the role of urban soils and soil moisture in storm runoff generation in mixed land-use catchments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Pierce, Julia; Mahat, Vinod

This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with amore » heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.« less

Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume II ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and generate runoff and pollutant loads. The routing portion of SWMM transports this runoff through a system of pipes, channels, storage/treatment devices, pumps, and regulators. SWMM tracks the quantity and quality of runoff generated within each subcatchment, and the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period comprised of multiple time steps. The reference manual for this edition of SWMM is comprised of three volumes. Volume I describes SWMM’s hydrologic models, Volume II its hydraulic models, and Volume III its water quality and low impact development models. This document provides the underlying mathematics for the hydraulic calculations of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

Contributions of human activities to suspended sediment yield during storm events from a small, steep, tropical watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messina, A. M.; Biggs, T. W.

2016-07-01

Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) and yields (SSY) were measured during storm and non-storm periods from undisturbed and human-disturbed portions of a small (1.8 km2), mountainous watershed that drains to a sediment-stressed coral reef. Event-wise SSY (SSYEV) was calculated for 142 storms from measurements of water discharge (Q), turbidity (T), and SSC measured downstream of three key sediment sources: undisturbed forest, an aggregate quarry, and a village. SSC and SSYEV were significantly higher downstream of the quarry during both storm- and non-storm periods. The human-disturbed subwatershed (10.1% disturbed) accounted for an average of 87% of SSYEV from the watershed. Observed sediment yield (mass) to the coast, including human disturbed subwatersheds, was 3.9× the natural background. Specific SSY (mass/area) from the disturbed quarry area was 49× higher than from natural forest compared with 8× higher from the village area. Similar to mountainous watersheds in semi-arid and temperate climates, SSYEV from both the undisturbed and disturbed watersheds correlated closely with maximum event discharge (Qmax), event total precipitation and event total Q, but not with the Erosivity Index. Best estimates of annual SSY varied by method, from 45 to 143 tons/km2/yr from the undisturbed subwatershed, 441-598 tons/km2/yr from the human-disturbed subwatershed, and 241-368 tons/km2/yr from the total watershed. Sediment yield was very sensitive to disturbance; the quarry covers 1.1% of the total watershed area, but contributed 36% of SSYEV. Given the limited access to gravel for infrastructure development, sediment disturbance from local aggregate mining may be a critical sediment source on remote islands in the Pacific and elsewhere. Identification of erosion hotspots like the quarry using rapid, event-wise measures of suspended sediment yield will help efforts to mitigate sediment stress and restore coral reefs.

Geological record of severe storm impacts along the Texas Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, D.; Anderson, J. B.; Yu, W.

2008-12-01

Hurricanes act as one of the primary controls on barrier island migration through wave and wind energy, and their frequency has been suggested to indicate changes in climate (El Niño) cycles. Texas has an extensive coastline containing barriers in various stages of evolution. Through a detailed sedimentological examination and radiocarbon age constraints of offshore storm sands, beach ridge breaching events, storm surge channels, and washovers, we offer a geologic record of severe storm impacts along the Texas Coast. From offshore core data, we ascertain that sand storage along the upper and lower shoreface (the profile of which is controlled by catastrophic storm impacts) is minimal over geologic timescales (i.e. 100-1000 years). Hence, an offshore record of storm impact is lacking. Using high resolution LIDAR data, we map breaching events of prominent beach ridges. Storm surge channels on the bayside of barriers (which are cut by water flowing towards the Gulf of Mexico when storm surge recedes) are also being dated, although they likely record lower magnitude storms. This study reveals that hurricane washover formation is only a minor contributor to sand transport within the system, as accumulation rates in back-barriers range from .095 - .4m/C. By examining the sedimentological components of hurricane impacts, we establish a hurricane impact chronology and conclude that the frequency of major storms along the Texas Coast is actually quite minimal.

Amount and Percentage of Current Societal Assets in Areas on Kaua'i, Hawai'i, within the 1992 Hurricane 'Iniki Storm-Surge Inundation Zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2008-01-01

The Pacific Risk Management 'Ohana (PRiMO) is a network of partners and stakeholders involved in the development, delivery, and communication of risk management-related information, products, and services across the Pacific Ocean (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Services Center, 2008). One PRiMO-related project is the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) initiative, which seeks to improve the understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity ('storminess') within the Pacific region and to develop a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies, and other decision-makers (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008a). One of the PRICIP information products is a historical storm 'event anatomy', which includes a summary of sector-specific socioeconomic impacts associated with a particular event, as well as information about the event and its climatological context. The intent of an event anatomy is to convey the causes of an extreme storm event and the associated impacts in a format that users can understand. The event anatomies also are intended to familiarize users with the in-place and remotely sensed products typically employed to track and forecast weather and climate. The first event anatomy developed as a prototype and hosted on the PRICIP portal is for Hurricane 'Iniki (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008b), a Category 3-4 hurricane that made landfall on the south coast of Kaua'i Island on September 11, 1992, with estimated maximum sustained winds of more than 140 mph and gusts as high as 175 mph. Storm-surge inundation occurred on the southern and northeastern coast of Kaua'i Island. In an effort to increase the amount of available information on the Hurricane 'Iniki event anatomy of the PRICIP portal, representatives from the NOAA NCDC IDEA Center contacted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 for assistance in determining what current societal assets are in areas that were inundated by storm surge during Hurricane 'Iniki in 1992. This report contains data summarizing the amount and percentage of current societal assets on Kaua'i Island, Hawai'i, that exist in the historic Hurricane 'Iniki storm-surge inundation zone. Coupled with an array of information on the socioeconomic impacts of Hurricane 'Iniki and distributed through the PRICIP portal, the results of this effort will help managers and the general public to understand the current risks posed by extreme storms in the Pacific Basin.

Noninvasive optical monitoring multiple physiological parameters response to cytokine storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zebin; Li, Ting

2018-02-01

Cancer and other disease originated by immune or genetic problems have become a main cause of death. Gene/cell therapy is a highlighted potential method for the treatment of these diseases. However, during the treatment, it always causes cytokine storm, which probably trigger acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiple organ failure. Here we developed a point-of-care device for noninvasive monitoring cytokine storm induced multiple physiological parameters simultaneously. Oxy-hemoglobin, deoxy-hemoglobin, water concentration and deep-tissue/tumor temperature variations were simultaneously measured by extended near infrared spectroscopy. Detection algorithms of symptoms such as shock, edema, deep-tissue fever and tissue fibrosis were developed and included. Based on these measurements, modeling of patient tolerance and cytokine storm intensity were carried out. This custom device was tested on patients experiencing cytokine storm in intensive care unit. The preliminary data indicated the potential of our device in popular and milestone gene/cell therapy, especially, chimeric antigen receptor T-cell immunotherapy (CAR-T).

Dust Storms in the United States are Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Mortality

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Extreme weather events such as dust storms are predicted to become more frequent as the global climate warms through the 21st century. Studies of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian dust storms have found associations with cardiovascular and total non-accidental...

What Role do Nor'Easters have on the Jamaica Bay Wetlands Sediment Budget?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, R. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Wang, H.; Smith, J.

2017-12-01

The wetlands of Jamaica Bay, located on the outskirts of Queens, New York, have lost over half their surface area in the last 50 years due both anthropogenic and natural causes, including channel dredging, urban drainage construction, and greater tidal amplitudes partially due to rising local sea levels. Superstorm Sandy made landfall in 2014 as a powerful coastal geomorphic agent, highlighting the vulnerability of that region to large cyclonic storms that are more commonly encountered along coastal reaches of southeastern North America. After this event, research aimed at quantifying the geomorphic impact of Superstorm Sandy and to evaluate the record of past documented major winter storms on Jamaica Bay's wetlands. 12 sediment cores were collected from the surface of remaining wetlands in August 2014 by the USGS Wetland and Aquatic Research Center; the cores have been analyzed for Pb-210/Cs-137 geochronology, organic content, and water content to establish chronology of mineral sediment supply to the wetlands over the past 120 years. Most cores were found to be organic-rich, marked with periodic cm-scale beds with increased mineral content. Historic storm data, dating as far back as the late 1800's, were used to identify hurricanes and major winter storms determined by the National Weather Service passing within 100 km of the study area. Likely storm-event deposits in each core were identified as layers with mineral content higher than the core mean plus one standard deviation, and were matched to historic events via radioisotope geochronology, incorporating age-model uncertainty. Overall, 22 out of the 35 defined storm layers match the timing of historic strong storms (within uncertainty ranging from 2 to 5 years) from 1894 to Superstorm Sandy in 2014. Our findings show that over multidecadal timescales, nor'easters and winter storms play a role in the vertical accretion of sediment in the Jamaica Bay wetlands, but are substantially less important than sediment delivery under typical tidal conditions. Event deposits from tropical cyclones are also present, but less common than those produced by frontal storms.

Concentration-discharge responses to storm events in coastal California watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilera, R.; Melack, J. M.

2017-12-01

Storm events in montane catchments are the main cause of mobilization of solutes and particulates into and within stream channels in coastal California. Non-linear behavior of nutrients and suspended sediments during storms is evident in the hysteresis that arises in concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships. We examined patterns in the C-Q hysteresis of nutrients (NO3-, NH4+, DON and PO43-) and total suspended solids (TSS) during storms across ten sites and water years 2002 to 2015 by quantifying the slope of the C-Q relationship and the rotational pattern of the hysteresis loop. We observed several hysteresis types: constituents associated with sediment transport (PO43- and TSS) were flushed during storm events, whereas nitrogen species had hysteretic responses such as dilution with clockwise rotation in urban sites and enrichment with anti-clockwise rotation in undeveloped sites. The wide range of C-Q responses that occurred among sites and seasons reflected the variable hydrological and biogeochemical characteristics of catchments and storms. Storm responses for nitrate in nested catchments differed in slope and rotation of C-Q hysteresis. Upland undeveloped and lowland urban sites had anti-clockwise rotation at the onset of the rainy season following a dry year, which implied a delay in the transport of this solute to the streams. By the middle of the season, the urban site switched from dilution to enrichment, and then again to dilution with clockwise rotation, which implied high initial concentrations and proximal sources by the end of the season.

Biological response to coastal upwelling and dust deposition in the area off Northwest Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohde, T.; Siegel, H.

2010-05-01

Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll- a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll- a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll- a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll- a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll- a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by coastal upwelling processes. Time lags of <8 days, 8 days, and 16 days were determined. An increase in surface chlorophyll- a concentration of up to 2.4 mg m -3 after dust storms in which the dust component of the aerosol optical depth was up to 0.9 was observed.

Interaction of ice storms and management practices on current carbon sequestration in forests with potential mitigation under future CO2 atmosphere

Treesearch

Heather R. McCarthy; Ram Oren; Hyun-Seok Kim; Kurt H. Johnsen; Chris Maier; Seth G. Pritchard; Michael A. Davis

2006-01-01

Ice storms are disturbance events with potential impacts on carbon sequestration. Common forest management practices, such as fertilization and thinning, can change wood and stand properties and thus may change vulnerability to ice storm damage. At the same time, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels may also influence ice storm vulnerability. Here...

Gigantic Jets and the Tropical Paradigm: A Satellite Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

While not exclusively oceanic, gigantic jets (GJ) appear to have a preference for the tropical environment. In particular, a number of GJs have been observed in conjunction with tropical disturbances (i.e., weak tropical storms, depressions, and remnant lows). Given the remote aspect of TC convection and general lack of radar coverage, we explore this subset of events via analysis of their infrared and water vapor satellite presentations. The satellite perspective is relevant given that storm top mixing (dilution) of charge associated with storm-scale turbulence in this portion of the storm is thought to be connected to GJs. The thunderstorm overshoot, upper level divergence / outflow are examined in an effort to better understand the tropical paradigm. Specifically, an analysis of cloud top temperature, anvil expansion rates and asymmetries as well as placement of the GJ events with respect to the large (storm) scale circulation will be conducted.

Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wasko, C.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J. P.; Sharma, A.

2018-05-01

The spatial extent and organization of extreme storm events has important practical implications for flood forecasting. Recently, conflicting evidence has been found on the observed changes of storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures. To further investigate this question, a regional climate model assessment is presented for the Greater Sydney region, in Australia. Two regional climate models were considered: the first a convection-resolving simulation at 2-km resolution, the second a resolution of 10 km with three different convection parameterizations. Both the 2- and the 10-km resolutions that used the Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme simulate decreasing storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures for 1-hr duration precipitation events, consistent with the observation-based study in Australia. However, other observed relationships of extreme rainfall with increasing temperature were not well represented by the models. Improved methods for considering storm organization are required to better understand potential future changes.

Satellite microwave observations of a storm complex: A comparative analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, D. W.

1985-01-01

The hypothesis that cold events correspond to a particular stage in a class of thunderstorms was tested. That class is a storms class which updrafts are: (1) strong, broad and moist, and (2) extend well above the freezing level. Condition (1) implies strong mesoscale forcing. Condition (2) implies a tall updraft or a relatively low freezing level. Such storms should have big, intense radar echoes and cold, fast-growing anvils. The thunderstorm events were analyzed by radar, rain gauge and GOES infrared observations. Radar was the starting point for detection and definition of the hypothesized thunderstorms. The radar signature is compared to the signature of the storm in rain gauge observations, satellite infrared images and satellite microwave images.

Increasing Risk Awareness: The Coastal Community Resilience Index

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Jody A.; Sempier, Tracie; Swann, LaDon

2012-01-01

As the number of people moving to the Gulf Coast increases, so does the risk of exposure to floods, hurricanes, and other storm-related events. In an effort to assist communities in preparing for future storm events, the Coastal Community Resilience Index was created. The end result is for communities to take actions to address the weaknesses they…

Characteristics of aerosol and meteorological parameters during major dust storm events (2005 - 2010) over Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Sheng; Cao, Chunxiang; Singh, Ramesh

Multi satellite sensors are capable in monitoring dust storm, its path and changes in atmospheric parameters. The present paper discusses aerosol optical properties and meteorological parameters during major dust storm events (2005-2010) over Beijing, China. The back trajectory model shows that the dust is transported from the Inner Mongolia and Mongolia to Beijing. High aerosol optical depth (AOD) and low Ångström exponent (AE) values are observed during dusty days, the average AOD (675 nm) and AE (440-870 nm) during dusty days are 2.33 and 0.06, respectively. The aerosol size distribution (ASD) in coarse mode shows a large increase in the volume during dusty days. The single scattering albedo (SSA) increases with higher wavelength on dusty days, and higher compared to non-dusty days, indicating the presence of high scattering particles due to dust storm events. Characteristics of particles during dusty and non-dusty days are also supported by the real and imaginary parts of refractive index (RI). High air pollution index (API) during dusty days represent poor air quality is a serious health hazard at the time of dust events. The CO volume mixing ratio (COVMR) from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) shows decrease on the ground on dusty days, while the relative humidity (RH) and H _{2}0 mass mixing ratio (H _{2}OMMR) enhance. In addition, due to the dust storm in 2005, enhanced level of water vapor (WV) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data is observed in and around Beijing over the dust storms track.

Storm Water Retention on Three Green Roofs with Distinct Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breach, P. A.; Sims, A.; O'Carroll, D. M.; Robinson, C. E.; Smart, C. C.; Powers, B. S. C.

2014-12-01

As urbanization continues to increase the impact of cities on their surrounding environments, the feasibility of implementing low-impact development such as green roofs is of increasing interest. Green roofs retain and attenuate storm water thereby reducing the load on urban sewer systems. In addition, green roofs can provide insulation and lower roof surface temperature leading to a decrease in building energy load. Green roof technology in North American urban environments remains underused, in part due to a lack of climate appropriate green roof design guidelines. The capacity of a green roof to moderate runoff depends on the storage capacity of the growing medium at the start of a rainfall event. Storage capacity is finite, which makes rapid drainage and evapotranspiration loss critical for maximizing storage capacity between subsequent storms. Here the retention and attenuation of storm events are quantified for experimental green roof sites located in three representative Canadian climates corresponding to; semiarid conditions in Calgary, Alberta, moderate conditions in London, Ontario, and cool and humid conditions in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The storage recovery and storm water retention at each site is modelled using a modified water balance approach. Components of the water balance including evapotranspiration are predicted using climate data collected from 2012 to 2014 at each of the experimental sites. During the measurement period there were over 300 precipitation events ranging from small, frequent events (< 2 mm) to a storm with a 250 year return period. The modeling approach adopted provides a tool for planners to assess the feasibility of implementing green roofs in their respective climates.

Coarse-clast ridge complexes of the Caribbean: A preliminary basis for distinguishing tsunami and storm-wave origins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, R.A.; Richmond, B.M.; Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbaum, G.

2008-01-01

Coastal gravel-ridge complexes deposited on islands in the Caribbean Sea are recorders of past extreme-wave events that could be associated with either tsunamis or hurricanes. The ridge complexes of Bonaire, Jamaica, Puerto Rico (Isla de Mona), and Guadeloupe consist of polymodal clasts ranging in size from sand to coarse boulders that are derived from the adjacent coral reefs or subjacent rock platforms. Ridge-complex morphologies and crest elevations are largely controlled by availability of sediments, clast sizes, and heights of wave runup. The ridge complexes are internally organized, display textural sorting and a broad range of ages including historical events. Some display seaward-dipping beds and ridge-and-swale topography, and some terminate in fans or steep avalanche slopes. Together, the morphologic, sedimentologic, lithostratigraphic, and chronostratigraphic evidence indicates that shore-parallet ridge complexes composed of gravel and sand that are tens of meters wide and several meters thick are primarily storm-constructed features that have accumulated for a few centuries or millennia as a result of multiple high-frequency intense-wave events. They are not entirely the result of one or a few tsunamis as recently reported. Tsunami deposition may account for some of the lateral ridge-complex accretion or boulder fields and isolated blocks that are associated with the ridge complexes. Copyright ?? 2008, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ji, Eun-Young; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Lee, D.-H.

2012-01-01

We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.

2017-12-01

Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

Changes of circulatory and nervous diseases mortality patterns during periods of exceptional solar events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podolska, Katerina

2017-04-01

The paper contains a statistical analysis of exceptional solar events and daily numbers of deaths from diseases from ICD-10 group VI. Diseases of the nervous system, group IX. Diseases of the circulatory system, and overall daily numbers of deaths in the Czech Republic. It is demonstrated that neurological diseases exhibit greater instability during the period of rising and falling solar activity. Specifically, we study the daily number of deaths separately for both sexes at the age groups under 39 and 40+ during the Solar Cycles No. 23 and No. 24. We focus mainly on exceptional solar events such as a "Bastille Day event" on July 14, 2000 (class X5), "Halloween solar storm" on October 28, 2003 (class X17), and events on January 7, 1997, April 2, 2000 (class X20), or September 7, 2005 (class X15). Special attention is given to "St. Patrick's Day storm" on March 17, 2015, the strongest geomagnetic storm of the Solar Cycle No. 24 that occurred following a coronal mass ejection (CME). We investigate changes in daily numbers of deaths during 1 month before and 1 month after these exceptional solar events. We take specific storm dynamics of geophysical parameters into consideration, and we also apply the results of risky characteristics of expositions by ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters. It is verified that, for diseases of the nervous system, women are generally more sensitive than men. On the contrary, this differences between men and women are not found for diseases of the circulatory system. Our findings suggest that the impact of hazardous space weather conditions on human health depends on the specific course and strength of individual solar storm.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

The statistical analysis of the Geomagnetically Induced Current events occurred in Guangdong, China during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Y. Y.

2018-03-01

We study the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and the corresponding Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) events occurred in Ling’ao nuclear power station, Guangdong during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006). The result shows that sMC (a magnetic cloud with a shock), SH (sheath) and SH+MC (a sheath followed by a magnetic cloud) are the three most common interplanetary structures responsible for the storms which will cause GIC events in this period. As an interplanetary structure, CIR (corotating interaction regions) also plays an important role, however, the CIR-driven storms have a relatively minor effect to the GIC. Among the interplanetary parameters, the solar wind velocity and the southward component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) are more important than solar wind density and the temperature to a geomagnetic storm and GIC.

Water-quality assessment of stormwater runoff from a heavily used urban highway bridge in Miami, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald J.; Irwin, G.A.

1983-01-01

Runoff from a heavily-traveled, 1.43-acre bridge section of Interstate-95 in Miami, Florida, was comprehensively monitored for both quality and quantity during five selected storms between November 1979 and May 1981. For most water-quality parameters, 6 to 11 samples were collected during each of the 5 runoff events. Concentrations of most parameters in the runoff were quite variable both during individual storm events and among the five storm events; however, the ranges in parameter concentration were about the same magnitude report for numerous other highway and urban drainages. Data were normalized to estimate the average, discharge-weighted parameter loads per storm per acre of bridge surface and results suggested that the most significant factor influencing stormwater loads was parameter concentration. Rainfall intensity and runoff volume, however, influenced rates of loading. The total number of antecedent dry days and traffic volume did not appear to be conspicously related to either runoff concentrations or loads. (USGS)

The Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET): An API for Matching Natural Events to GIBS Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, K.

2015-12-01

Hidden within the terabytes of imagery in NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) collection are hundreds of daily natural events. Some events are newsworthy, devastating, and visibly obvious at a global scale, others are merely regional curiosities. Regardless of the scope and significance of any one event, it is likely that multiple GIBS layers can be viewed to provide a multispectral, dataset-based view of the event. To facilitate linking between the discrete event and the representative dataset imagery, NASA's Earth Observatory Group has developed a prototype application programming interface (API): the Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET). EONET supports an API model that allows users to retrieve event-specific metadata--date/time, location, and type (wildfire, storm, etc.)--and web service layer-specific metadata which can be used to link to event-relevant dataset imagery in GIBS. GIBS' ability to ingest many near real time datasets, combined with its growing archive of past imagery, means that API users will be able to develop client applications that not only show ongoing events but can also look at imagery from before and after. In our poster, we will present the API and show examples of its use.

U.S. Energy Disruptions

EIA Publications

EIA tracks and reports on selected significant storms that impact or could potentially impact energy infrastructure. See past historical events reported or real-time storm tracking with energy infrastructure maps.

Quantification of non-stormwater flow entries into storm drains using a water balance approach.

PubMed

Xu, Zuxin; Yin, Hailong; Li, Huaizheng

2014-07-15

To make decisions about correcting illicit or inappropriate connections to storm drains, quantification of non-stormwater entries into storm drains was performed using a water flow balance approach, based on data analysis from 2008 to 2011 in a separate storm drainage system in a Shanghai downtown area of 374 ha. The study revealed severe sewage connections to storm drains; meanwhile, misconnections between surface water and storm drains were found to drive frequent non-stormwater pumping discharges at the outfall, producing a much larger volume of outfall flows in a short period. This paper presented a methodology to estimate quantities of inappropriate sewage flow, groundwater infiltration and river water backflow into the storm drains. It was concluded that inappropriate sewage discharge and groundwater seepage into storm drains were approximately 17,860 m(3)/d (i.e., up to 51% of the total sewage flow in the catchment) and 3,624 m(3)/d, respectively, and surface water backflow was up to an average 28,593 m(3)/d. On the basis of this work, end-of-storm pipe interceptor sewers of 0.25 m(3)/s (i.e., 21,600 m(3)/d) would be effective to tackle the problem of sewage connections and groundwater seepage to storm drains. Under this circumstance, the follow-up non-stormwater outfall pumping events indicate misconnections between surface water and storm drains, featuring pumping discharge equivalent to surface water backflow; hence the misconnections should be repaired. The information provided here is helpful in estimating the magnitude of non-stormwater flow entries into storm drains and designing the necessary pollution control activities, as well as combating city floods in storm events. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

From mess to mass: a methodology for calculating storm event pollutant loads with their uncertainties, from continuous raw data time series.

PubMed

Métadier, M; Bertrand-Krajewski, J-L

2011-01-01

With the increasing implementation of continuous monitoring of both discharge and water quality in sewer systems, large data bases are now available. In order to manage large amounts of data and calculate various variables and indicators of interest it is necessary to apply automated methods for data processing. This paper deals with the processing of short time step turbidity time series to estimate TSS (Total Suspended Solids) and COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) event loads in sewer systems during storm events and their associated uncertainties. The following steps are described: (i) sensor calibration, (ii) estimation of data uncertainties, (iii) correction of raw data, (iv) data pre-validation tests, (v) final validation, and (vi) calculation of TSS and COD event loads and estimation of their uncertainties. These steps have been implemented in an integrated software tool. Examples of results are given for a set of 33 storm events monitored in a stormwater separate sewer system.

Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere E-Region Electron Densities Using TIMED/SABER Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Fernandez, J. R.; Bilitza, D.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2009-01-01

Auroral infrared emission observed from the TIMED/SABER broadband 4.3 micron channel is used to develop an empirical geomagnetic storm correction to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region electron densities. The observation-based proxy used to develop the storm model is SABER-derived NO+(v) 4.3 micron volume emission rates (VER). A correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-time NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER to a quiet-time climatological averaged NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER, which is linearly fit to available geomagnetic activity indices. The initial version of the E-region storm model, called STORM-E, is most applicable within the auroral oval region. The STORM-E predictions of E-region electron densities are compared to incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements during the Halloween 2003 storm events. Future STORM-E updates will extend the model outside the auroral oval.

A new approach for the assessment of temporal clustering of extratropical wind storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Mareike; Eddounia, Fadoua; Kuhnel, Ivan; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

A widely-used methodology to assess the clustering of storms in a region is based on dispersion statistics of a simple homogeneous Poisson process. This clustering measure is determined by the ratio of the variance and the mean of the local storm statistics per grid point. Resulting values larger than 1, i.e. when the variance is larger than the mean, indicate clustering; while values lower than 1 indicate a sequencing of storms that is more regular than a random process. However, a disadvantage of this methodology is that the characteristics are valid for a pre-defined climatological time period, and it is not possible to identify a temporal variability of clustering. Also, the absolute value of the dispersion statistics is not particularly intuitive. We have developed an approach to describe temporal clustering of storms which offers a more intuitive comprehension, and at the same time allows to assess temporal variations. The approach is based on the local distribution of waiting times between the occurrence of two individual storm events, the former being computed through the post-processing of individual windstorm tracks which in turn are obtained by an objective tracking algorithm. Based on this distribution a threshold can be set, either by the waiting time expected from a random process or by a quantile of the observed distribution. Thus, it can be determined if two consecutive wind storm events count as part of a (temporal) cluster. We analyze extratropical wind storms in a reanalysis dataset and compare the results of the traditional clustering measure with our new methodology. We assess what range of clustering events (in terms of duration and frequency) is covered and identify if the historically known clustered seasons are detectable by the new clustering measure in the reanalysis.

Metals and bacteria partitioning to various size particles in Ballona Creek storm water runoff.

PubMed

Brown, Jeffrey S; Stein, Eric D; Ackerman, Drew; Dorsey, John H; Lyon, Jessica; Carter, Patrick M

2013-02-01

Many storm water best management practice (BMP) devices function primarily by capturing particulate matter to take advantage of the well-documented association between storm water particles and pollutants. The hydrodynamic separation or settling methods used by most BMP devices are most effective at capturing medium to large particles; however, these may not be the most predominant particles associated with urban runoff. The present study examined particle size distribution in storm water runoff from an urban watershed in southern California and investigated the pollutant-particle associations of metals (Cu, Pb, Ni, and Zn) and bacteria (enterococci and Escherichia coli). During small storm events (≤0.7 cm rain), the highest concentration of pollutants were associated with a <6-µm filter fraction, which accounted for 70% of the per storm contaminant mass but made up more than 20% of the total particle mass. The pollutant-particle association changed with storm size. Most pollutant mass was associated with >35 µm size particles during a 5-cm rain event. These results suggest that much of the contaminant load in storm water runoff will not be captured by the most commonly used BMP devices, because most of these devices (e.g., hydrodynamic separators) are unable to capture particles smaller than 75 µm. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

The effects of a whole-watershed calcium addition on the chemistry of stream storm events at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in NH, USA.

PubMed

Cho, Youngil; Driscoll, Charles T; Blum, Joel D

2009-10-01

Patterns of storm runoff chemistry from a wollastonite (calcium-silicate mineral, CaSiO(3)) treated watershed (W1) were compared with a reference watershed (W6) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire (NH), USA to investigate the role of Ca(2+) supply in the acid-base status of stream chemistry. In the summer of 2003, six storm events were studied in W1 and W6 to evaluate the effects of the wollastonite treatment on the episodic acidification of stream waters. Although mean values of Ca(2+) concentrations decreased slightly from 33.8 to 31.7 mumol/L with increasing stream discharge in W1 during the events, the mean value of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) was positive (1.2 mueq/L) during storm events, compared to negative values (-0.2 mueq/L) in W6. This pattern is presumably due to enhanced Ca(2+) supply in W1 (20.7 to 29.0% of dissolved Ca(2+) derived from the added wollastonite) to stream water as a result of interflow along shallow flowpaths. In addition, the application of wollastonite increased pH and dissolved silica (H(4)SiO(4)) concentrations, and decreased the concentration of inorganic monomeric Al (Al(i)) in W1 in comparison with W6 during storm events. Despite an increase in SO(4)(2-) concentration, likely due to desorption of sulfate from soil after the treatment, the watershed showed an increase in ANC compared to the reference watershed, serving to mitigate episodic acidification.

Characterization of Water Quality Changes During Storm Events: New Methods to Protect Drinking Water Supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturdevant-Rees, P. L.; Long, S. C.; Barten, P. K.

2002-05-01

A forty-month investigation to collect microbial and water-quality measurements during storm events under a variety of meteorological and land-use conditions is in its initial stages. Intense sampling during storm event periods will be used to optimize sampling and analysis strategies for accurate determination of constituent loads. Of particular interest is identification of meteorological and hydrologic conditions under which sampling and analysis of surface waters for traditional microbial organisms, emerging microbial organisms and non-bacterial pathogens are critical to ensure the integrity of surface-water drinking supplies. This work is particular to the Quabbin-Ware-Wachusett reservoir system in Massachusetts, which provides unfiltered drinking water to 2.5 million people in Boston and surrounding communities. Sampling and analysis strategies will be optimized in terms of number of samples over the hydrograph, timing of sample collection (including sample initiation), constituents measured, volumes analyzed, and monetary and personnel costs. Initial water-quality analyses include pH, temperature, turbidity, conductivity, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, total Kjeldahl-nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, and total and fecal coliforms. Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts will also be measured at all sample sites. Sorbitol-fermenting Bifidobacteria, Rhodococcus coprophilus, Clostridium perfringens spores, and Somatic and F-specific coliphages are measured at select sites as potential alternative source-specific indicator organisms. It is anticipated that the final database will consist of transport data for the above parameters during twenty-four distinct storm-events in addition to monthly baseline data. Results and analyses for the first monitored storm-event will be presented.

Magnitude-Based Postfire Debris Flow Rainfall Accumulation-Duration Thresholds for Emergency-Response Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, S. H.; Boldt, E. M.; Laber, J. L.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.

2011-12-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is needed for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response in this setting. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. Magnitude 0 events show a negligible response, while Magnitude I events are characterized by small (<1,000 m3) debris flows or low-discharge floods produced from one or two drainage basins. A few culverts and storm drains may be blocked, a few streets may be partially flooded or blocked by water and debris, and a few buildings near the mountain front may be damaged. Magnitude II events are characterized by two to five moderately-sized (1,000 to 10,000 m3) debris flows or one large (>10,000 m3) event. Several culverts or storm drains may be blocked or fail, several streets may be flooded or completely blocked by water and debris, and buildings, streets, and bridges may be damaged or destroyed. Magnitude III events consist of widespread and abundant debris flows of volumes >10,000 m3 and high discharge flooding causing significant impact to the built environment. Many streets, storm drains, and streets may be completely blocked by debris, making many streets unsafe for travel. Several large buildings, sections of infrastructure corridors and bridges may be damaged or destroyed. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes are defined by correlating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude 0 events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall below the threshold A=0.4D0.5. Magnitude I events can be expected when storm rainfall conditions are above the threshold A=0.4D0.5 and below A=0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 hour. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A=0.4D0.5 and A=0.9D0.5 for durations less than one hour, and between A=0.5D0.6 and A=0.9D0.5 for durations greater than one hour. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A=0.9D 0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in the planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders.

Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2018-03-01

The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosler, Peter

Stride Search provides a flexible tool for detecting storms or other extreme climate events in high-resolution climate data sets saved on uniform latitude-longitude grids in standard NetCDF format. Users provide the software a quantitative description of a meteorological event they are interested in; the software searches a data set for locations in space and time that meet the user’s description. In its first stage, Stride Search performs a spatial search of the data set at each timestep by dividing a search domain into circular sectors of constant geodesic radius. Data from a netCDF file is read into memory for eachmore » circular search sector. If the data meet or exceed a set of storm identification criteria (defined by the user), a storm is recorded to a linked list. Finally, the linked list is examined and duplicate detections of the same storm are removed and the results are written to an output file. The first stage’s output file is read by a second program that builds storm. Additional identification criteria may be applied at this stage to further classify storms. Storm tracks are the software’s ultimate output and routines are provided for formatting that output for various external software libraries for plotting and tabulating data.« less

Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

2016-01-01

Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

Talking about Twisters: Relations between Mothers' and Children's Contributions to Conversations about a Devastating Tornado

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauer, Patricia J.; Burch, Melissa M.; Van Abbema, Dana L.; Ackil, Jennifer K.

2007-01-01

Mother-child dyads who experienced a devastating tornado talked about the storm and about two affectively more positive or neutral events at each of two time points: 4 months and 10 months after the storm. The conversations were analyzed to determine whether mothers and/or children's contributions differed as a function of event type and whether…

Extreme Event impacts on Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canals, Miquel; Sanchez-Vidal, Anna; Calafat, Antoni; Pedrosa-Pàmies, Rut; Lastras, Galderic

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is among those presenting the highest concentration of cyclogenesis during the northern hemisphere winter, thus is frequently subjected to sudden events of extreme weather. The highest frequency of storm winds occur in its northwestern basin, and is associated to NE and NW storms. The occurrence of such extreme climatic events represents an opportunity of high scientific value to investigate how natural processes at their peaks of activity transfer matter and energy, as well as how impact ecosystems. Due to the approximately NE-SW orientation of the western Mediterranean coast, windforced motion coming from eastern storms generate the most intense waves and with very long fetch in the continental shelf and the coast, causing beach erosion, overwash and inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructures and coastal resources. On December 26, 2008 a huge storm afforded us the opportunity to understand the effect of storms on the deep sea ecosystems, as impacted violently an area of the Catalan coast covered by a dense network of monitoring devices including sediment traps and currentmeters. The storm, with measured wind gusts of more than 70 km h-1 and associated storm surge reaching 8 m, lead to the remobilisation of a shallow water large reservoir of marine organic carbon associated to fine particles and to its redistribution across the deep basin, and also ignited the motion of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment resulting in the abrasion and burial of benthic communities. In addition to eastern storms, increasing evidence has accumulated during the last few years showing the significance of Dense Shelf Water Cascading (DSWC), a type of marine current driven exclusively by seawater density contrast caused by strong and persistent NW winds, as a key driver of the deep Mediterranean Sea in many aspects. A network of mooring lines with sediment traps and currentmeters deployed in the Cap de Creus canyon in winter 2005-06 recorded a major DSWC event, the latest to date. Data show that DSWC modifies the properties of intermediate and deep waters, carries massive amounts of organic carbon to the basin thus fuelling the deep ecosystem, transports huge quantities of coarse and fine sedimentary particles that abrade canyon floors and rise the load of suspended particles, and also exports pollutants from the coastal area to deeper compartment. Our findings demonstrate that both types of climate-driven extreme events (coastal storms and DSWC) are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow to deep, thus contributing to its sequestration, and have the potential to tremendously impact the deep-sea ecosystems.

A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

2010-12-01

Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community assets are located within ~230 m of a narrow beach behind a rip rap revetment. Clearly, any significant losses sustained during an extreme storm could be devastating to the community, and these impacts will likely be amplified in the future. This information is being used to inform land-use planners as well as coastal community residents and visitors about potential coastal change hazards in order to make communities more resistant to future extreme storm events as they are influenced by a changing climate.

Advances in using satellite altimetry to observe storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Guoqi

2017-04-01

Storm surges are the major cause for coastal flooding, resulting in catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to utilize new technology to enhance our capabilities of observing storm surges and ultimately to improve our capacity for forecasting storm surges and mitigating damage and loss. In this talk we first review traditional methods of monitoring storm surges. We then provide examples of storm surges observed by nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy and Igor, as well as typhoon and cyclone events. We further evaluate satellite results against tide-gauge data and explain storm surge features. Finally, we discuss the potential of a wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

May through July 2015 storm event effects on suspended-sediment loads, sediment trapping efficiency, and storage capacity of John Redmond Reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Guy M.; King, Lindsey R.

2016-06-20

The Neosho River and its primary tributary, the Cottonwood River, are the main sources of inflow to John Redmond Reservoir in east-central Kansas. Storm events during May through July 2015 caused large inflows of water and sediment into the reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, and funded in part through the Kansas State Water Plan Fund, computed the suspended-sediment inflows to, and trapping efficiency of, John Redmond Reservoir during May through July 2015. This fact sheet summarizes the quantification of suspended-sediment loads to and from the reservoir during May through July 2015 storm events and describes reservoir sediment trapping efficiency and effects on water-storage capacity.

Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over one year of solar maximum during cycle 23: propagation and effects from the Sun to the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornilleau-Wehrlin, Nicole; Bocchialini, Karine; Menvielle, Michel; Chambodut, Aude; Fontaine, Dominique; Grison, Benjamin; Marchaudon, Aurélie; Pick, Monique; Pitout, Frédéric; Schmieder, Brigitte; Régnier, Stéphane; Zouganelis, Yannis

2017-04-01

Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, helicity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The observed Sun-to-Earth travel times are compared to those estimated using existing simple models of propagation in the interplanetary medium. This comparison is used to statistically assess performances of various models. The geoeffectiveness of the events, classified by category at L1, is analysed by their signatures in the Earth ionized (magnetosphere and ionosphere) and neutral (thermosphere) environments, using a broad set of in situ, remote and ground based instrumentation. The role of the presence of a unique or of a multiple source at the Sun, of its nature, halo or non halo CME, is also discussed. The set of observations is statistically analyzed so as to evaluate and compare the geoeffectiveness of the events. The results obtained for this set of geomagnetic storms started by SSCs is compared to the overall statistics of year 2002, relying on already published catalogues of events, allowing assessing the relevance of our approach (for instance the all 12 well identified Magnetic Clouds of 2002 give rise to SSCs).

Impacts of global changes on the biogeochemistry and environmental effects of dissolved organic matter at the land-ocean interface: a review.

PubMed

Zhuang, Wan-E; Yang, Liyang

2018-02-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important component in the biogeochemistry and ecosystem function of aquatic environments at the highly populated land-ocean interface. The mobilization and transformation of DOM at this critical interface are increasingly affected by a series of notable global changes such as the increasing storm events, intense human activities, and accelerating glacier loss. This review provides an overview of the changes in the quantity and quality of DOM under the influences of multiple global changes. The profound implications of changing DOM for aquatic ecosystem and human society are further discussed, and future research needs are suggested for filling current knowledge gaps. The fluvial export of DOM is strongly intensified during storm events, which is accompanied with notable changes in the chemical composition and reactivity of DOM. Land use not only changes the mobilization of natural DOM source pools within watersheds but also adds DOM of distinct chemical composition and reactivity from anthropogenic sources. Glacier loss brings highly biolabile DOM to downstream water bodies. The changing DOM leads to significant changes in heterotrophic activity, CO 2 out gassing, nutrient and pollutant biogeochemistry, and disinfection by-product formation. Further studies on the source, transformations, and downstream effects of storm DOM, temporal variations of DOM and its interactions with other pollutants in human-modified watersheds, photo-degradability of glacier DOM, and potential priming effects, are essential for better understanding the responses and feedbacks of DOM at the land-ocean interface under the impacts of global changes.

The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24: "The St. Patrick day (17 March 2015)" event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. C.; Liou, K.; Socker, D. G.; Howard, R.; Jackson, B. V.; Yu, H. S.; Hutting, L.; Plunkett, S. P.

2015-12-01

The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 occurred on the "St. Patrick's day" (17 March 2015). Notably, it was a two-step storm. The source of the storm can be traced back to the solar event on March 15, 2015. At ~2:10 UT on that day, SOHO/LASCO C3 recorded a partial halo corona mass ejection (CME) which was associated with a C9.1/1F flare (S22W25) and a series of type II/IV radio bursts. The propagation speed of this CME is estimated to be ~668 km/s during 02:10 - 06:20 UT (Figure 1). An interplanetary (IP) shock, likely driven by the CME, arrived at the Wind spacecraft at 03:59 UT on 17 March (Figure 2). The arrival of the IP shock at the Earth may have caused a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on March 17. The storm intensified (Dst dropped to -80 nT at ~10:00 UT) during the crossing of the CME sheath. Later, the storm recovered slightly (Dst ~ -50 nT) after the IMF turned northward. At 11:01 UT, IMF started turning southward again due to the large magnetic cloud (MC) field itself and caused the second storm intensification, reaching Dst = - 228 nT on March 18. We conclude that the St. Patrick day event is a two-step storm. The first step is associated with the sheath, whereas the second step is associated with the MC. Here, we employ a numerical simulation using the global, three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model (H3DMHD, Wu et al. 2007) to study the CME propagation from the Sun to the Earth. The H3DMHD model has been modified so that it can be driven by (solar wind) data at the inner boundary of the computational domain. In this study, we use time varying, 3D solar wind velocity and density reconstructed from STELab, Japan interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data by the University of California, San Diego, and magnetic field at the IPS inner boundary provided by CSSS model closed-loop propagation (Jackson et a., 2015). The simulation result matches well with the in situ solar wind plasma and field data at Wind, in terms of the peak values of the IP shock and its arrival time (Figure 3). The simulation not only helps us to identify the driver of the IP shock, but also demonstrates that the modified H3DMHD model is capable of realistic simulations of large solar event. In this presentation, we will discuss the CME/storm event with detailed data from observations (Wind and SOHO) and our numerical simulation.

Modelling of sediment transport pattern in the mouth of the Rhone delta: Role of storm and flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudet, L.; Sabatier, F.; Radakovitch, O.

2017-11-01

The delta of the Rhone River is one of the most important in the Mediterranean Sea. Beach erosion problems along its coasts have developed in recent decades, raising the need for a better understanding of the sediment transport processes at the Rhone mouth and the adjacent beaches. Because field data are very difficult to obtain in such an energetic environment, a high-resolution numerical model (Delft3D) is applied to this area. This model is calibrated by taking into account hydrodynamical and morphological observations. Special attention is given to storm and flood events, which are the major morphological drivers. Therefore, scenarios with different wave and flow conditions are run to estimate the influence of these events on the sediment transport. The analysis of historical hydrological data shows that storms from the southeast represent 70% of the events between 1979 to 2010 and that 20% of them were followed by a flood within a few days. Consequently, specific simulations for such conditions are performed using Delft3D. The model simulates trends in the bedload sediment transport that are consistent with the bedforms observed in the bathymetry data. The total sediment transport at the outlet is only influenced by the river flow, but sediment transport at the mouth-bar depends on an equilibrium between the influence of floods and storms and the succession of these events. A period of 2 or 3 days separating the storm and flood peaks is sufficient to differentiate wave and river flow-induced sediment transport. The waves constrain the total transport on the mouth-bar and shallow mouth-lobe and induce a longshore transfer towards the adjacent beaches. The riverine sediments can be exported seaward only if a flood is energetic enough compared to the storm intensity. Regardless, when a flood is greater than the decadal return period (7800 m3 s-1), the sediment is transported from the outlet across the mouth-bar and is directed offshore.

Influence of particulates on phosphorus loading exported from farm drainage during a storm event in the Everglades Agricultural Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhadha, J. H.; Lang, T. A.; Daroub, S. H.

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of particulates on P loading captured during a single storm event. The Everglades Agricultural Area of Florida comprises 280,000 hectares of organic soil farmland artificially drained by ditches, canals and pumps. Phosphorus (P)-enriched suspended particulates in canals are susceptible to transport and can contribute significantly to the overall P loads in drainage water. A settling tank experiment was conducted to capture particulates during tropical storm Isaac in 2012 from three farms approximately 2.4 to 3.6 km2 in size. Farm canal discharge water was collected in a series of two 200 liter settling tanks over a seven-day drainage period, during tropical storm Isaac. Water from the settling tanks was siphoned through Imhoff settling cones, where the particulates were allowed to settle and collected for P-fractionation analyses, and compared to intact sediment cores collected from the bottom of the canals. The discharged particulates contained higher organic matter content (OM), total P, and labile P fractions compared to the canal bottom sediments. Based on the equilibrium P concentrations, surface sediments behave as a source of P to the water column. A seven-day continuous drainage event exported 4.7 to 11.1 metric tons of suspended solids per farm, corresponding to 32 to 63 kg of particulate P being lost to downstream ecosystems. Drainage associated to a single seven-day storm event exported up to 61% of the total annual farm P load. It is evident from this study that short-term, high-intensity storm events can skew annual P loads due to the export of significantly higher particulate matter from farm canals. Exported particulates rich in P can provide a supplemental source of nutrients if captured and replenished back into the farmlands, as a sustainable farming practice.

The eSurge-Venice project: how satellite data can improve the storm surge forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; Vignudelli, Stefano; Donlon, Craig; De Biasio, Francesco; Della Valle, Antonio; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco

The Data User Element (DUE) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) is funding two projects (eSurge and eSurge-Venice) aimed to demonstrate the improvement of the storm surge forecasting through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data. eSurge-Venice (http://www.esurge-venice.eu/), is specifically focused on the Gulf of Venice, northern Adriatic Sea. The project objectives are: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon since 1999; b) Provide the available satellite EO data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts; c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service (eSurge-Venice live) of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services; d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data. Present storm surge models use atmospheric model wind fields as forcing. These are know to underestimate the wind in small basins like the Adriatic Sea (~1000 km by 300 km), where the orography plays an important role in shaping the winds. Therefore there is the need to verify and tune the atmospheric model wind fields used in the storm surge modeling, an activity which can easily done using satellite scatterometer winds. The project is now in the middle of his life, and promising preliminary results have been achieved using satellite scatterometer wind data to forge the atmospheric model wind fields forcing the storm surge model. This contribution will present the methodology adopted to tune the model wind fields according to the bias with scatterometer winds and the improvements induced in the storm surge model hindcast.

Competition Between Radial Loss and EMIC Wave Scattering of MeV Electrons During Strong CME-shock Driven Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, M. K.; Jaynes, A. N.; Li, Z.; Malaspina, D.; Millan, R. M.; Patel, M.; Qin, M.; Shen, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.

2017-12-01

The two strongest storms of Solar Cycle 24, 17 March and 22 June 2015, provide a contrast between magnetospheric response to CME-shocks at equinox and solstice. The 17 March CME-shock initiated storm produced a stronger ring current response with Dst = - 223 nT, while the 22 June CME-shock initiated storm reached a minimum Dst = - 204 nT. The Van Allen Probes ECT instrument measured a dropout in flux for both events which can be characterized by magnetopause loss at higher L values prior to strong recovery1. However, rapid loss is seen at L 3 for the June storm at high energies with maximum drop in the 5.2 MeV channel of the REPT instrument coincident with the observation of EMIC waves in the H+ band by the EMFISIS wave instrument. The rapid time scale of loss can be determined from the 65 minute delay in passage of the Probe A relative to the Probe B spacecraft. The distinct behavior of lower energy electrons at higher L values has been modeled with MHD-test particle simulations, while the rapid loss of higher energy electrons is examined in terms of the minimum resonant energy criterion for EMIC wave scattering, and compared with the timescale for loss due to EMIC wave scattering which has been modeled for other storm events.2 1Baker, D. N., et al. (2016), Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, 6647-6660, doi:10.1002/2016JA022502. 2Li, Z., et al. (2014), Investigation of EMIC wave scattering as the cause for the BARREL 17 January 2013 relativistic electron precipitation event: A quantitative comparison of simulation with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8722-8729, doi:10.1002/2014GL062273.

Simulation and analysis of synoptic scale dust storms over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beegum, S. Naseema; Gherboudj, Imen; Chaouch, Naira; Temimi, Marouane; Ghedira, Hosni

2018-01-01

Dust storms are among the most severe environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. The predictability of seven dust events, viz. D1: April 2-4, 2014; D2: February 23-24, 2015; D3: April 1-3, 2015; D4: March 26-28, 2016; D5: August 3-5, 2016; D6: March 13-14, 2017 and D7:March 19-21, 2017, are investigated over the Arabian Peninsula using a regionally adapted chemistry transport model CHIMERE coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The hourly forecast products of particulate matter concentrations (PM10) and aerosol optical depths (AOD) are compared against both satellite-based (MSG/SEVRI RGB dust, MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth: DB-AOD, Ozone Monitoring Instrument observed UV Aerosol Absorption Index: OMI-AI) and ground-based (AERONET AOD) remote sensing products. The spatial pattern and the time series of the simulations show good agreement with the observations in terms of the dust intensity as well as the spatiotemporal distribution. The causative mechanisms of these dust events are identified by the concurrent analyses of the meteorological data. From these seven storms, five are associated with synoptic scale meteorological processes, such as prefrontal storms (D1 and D7), postfrontal storms of short (D2), and long (D3) duration types, and a summer shamal storm (D6). However, the storms D4 and D6 are partly associated with mesoscale convective type dust episodes known as haboobs. The socio-economic impacts of the dust events have been assessed by estimating the horizontal visibility, air quality index (AQI), and the dust deposition flux (DDF) from the forecasted dust concentrations. During the extreme dust events, the horizontal visibility drops to near-zero values co-occurred withhazardous levels of AQI and extremely high dust deposition flux (250 μg cm- 2 day- 1).

ENSO-Related Variability in Wave Climate Drives Greater Erosion Potential on Central Pacific Atolls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramante, J. F.; Ashton, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.

2015-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific over a periodic time scale of 2-7 years. Despite the importance of this climate mode in forcing storm generation and trade wind variability, its impact on the wave climate incident on central Pacific atolls has not been addressed. We used the NOAA Wavewatch III CFSR reanalysis hindcasts (1979-2007) to examine the influence of ENSO on sediment mobility and transport at Kwajalein Atoll (8.8°N, 167.7°E). We found that during El Nino event years, easterly trade winds incident on the atoll weakened by 4% compared to normal years and 17% relative to La Nina event years. Despite this decrease in wind strength, significant wave heights incident on the atoll were 3-4% greater during El Nino event years. Using machine learning to partition these waves revealed that the greater El Nino wave heights originated mainly from greater storm winds near the atoll. The southeastern shift in tropical cyclone genesis location during El Nino years forced these storm winds and contributed to the 7% and 16% increases in annual wave energy relative to normal and La Nina years, respectively. Using nested SWAN and XBeach models we determined that the additional wave energy during El Nino event years significantly increased potential sediment mobility at Kwajalein Atoll and led to greater net offshore transport on its most populous island. The larger storm waves likely deplete ocean-facing beaches and reef flats of sediment, but increase the supply of sediment to the atoll lagoon across open reef platforms that are not supporting islands. We discuss further explicit modelling of storms passing over the atoll to elucidate the confounding role of storm surge on the net erosional/depositional effects of these waves. Extrapolating our results to recent Wavewatch III forecasts leads us to conclude that climate change-linked increases in wave height and storm wave energy will increase erosion on central Pacific atolls.

Simultaneous occurrence of diabetic ketoacidosis, thyroid storm, and multiple cerebral infarctions due to Moyamoya disease.

PubMed

Noh, Byoungho H; Cho, Sang-Won; Ahn, Sung Yeon

2016-02-01

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is one of the precipitating factors that can evoke a thyroid storm. Thyroid storm may cause cerebral ischemia in Moyamoya disease, which can coexist in patients with Graves' disease. A 16-year-old girl complaining of dizziness and palpitations visited the emergency department and was diagnosed with DKA combined with hyperthyroidism. A thyroid storm occurred 6 h after the start of DKA management. Her Burch and Wartofsky score was 65 points. Right hemiplegia developed during the thyroid storm, and brain magnetic resonance (MR) diffusion-weighted images revealed multiple acute infarcts in both hemispheres. MR angiography showed stenosis of both distal internal carotid arteries and both M1 portions of the middle cerebral arteries, consistent with Moyamoya disease. After acute management for the thyroid storm with methimazole, Lugol solution and hydrocortisone, the patient's neurological symptoms completely resolved within 1 month, and free T4 level normalized within 2 months. Thyroid storm may trigger cerebral ischemia in Moyamoya disease and lead to rapid progression of cerebrovascular occlusive disease. As a simultaneous occurrence of DKA, thyroid storm and cerebrovascular accident in Moyamoya disease highly elevates morbidity and mortality, prompt recognition and management are critical to save the patient's life.

Quantifying the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons during a Rapid Dropout Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, K. H.; Tu, W.; Xiang, Z.

2017-12-01

Relativistic electron flux in the radiation belt can drop by orders of magnitude within the timespan of hours. In this study, we used the drift-diffusion model that includes azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion of electrons to simulate low-altitude electron distribution observed by POES/MetOp satellites for rapid radiation belt electron dropout event occurring on May 1, 2013. The event shows fast dropout of MeV energy electrons at L>4 over a few hours, observed by the Van Allen Probes mission. By simulating the electron distributions observed by multiple POES satellites, we resolve the precipitation loss with both high spatial and temporal resolution and a range of energies. We estimate the pitch angle diffusion coefficients as a function of energy, pitch angle, and L-shell, and calculate corresponding electron lifetimes during the event. The simulation results show fast electron precipitation loss at L>4 during the electron dropout, with estimated electron lifetimes on the order of half an hour for MeV energies. The electron loss rate show strong energy dependence with faster loss at higher energies, which suggest that this dropout event is dominated by quick and localized scattering process that prefers higher energy electrons. The estimated pitch angle diffusion rates from the model are then compared with in situ wave measurements from Van Allen Probes to uncover the underlying wave-particle-interaction mechanisms that are responsible for the fast electron precipitation. Comparing the resolved precipitation loss with the observed electron dropouts at high altitudes, our results will suggest the relative role of electron precipitation loss and outward radial diffusion to the radiation belt dropouts during storm and non-storm times, in addition to its energy and L dependence.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

Detection and analysis of a transient energy burst with beamforming of multiple teleseismic phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retailleau, Lise; Landès, Matthieu; Gualtieri, Lucia; Shapiro, Nikolai M.; Campillo, Michel; Roux, Philippe; Guilbert, Jocelyn

2018-01-01

Seismological detection methods are traditionally based on picking techniques. These methods cannot be used to analyse emergent signals where the arrivals cannot be picked. Here, we detect and locate seismic events by applying a beamforming method that combines multiple body-wave phases to USArray data. This method explores the consistency and characteristic behaviour of teleseismic body waves that are recorded by a large-scale, still dense, seismic network. We perform time-slowness analysis of the signals and correlate this with the time-slowness equivalent of the different body-wave phases predicted by a global traveltime calculator, to determine the occurrence of an event with no a priori information about it. We apply this method continuously to one year of data to analyse the different events that generate signals reaching the USArray network. In particular, we analyse in detail a low-frequency secondary microseismic event that occurred on 2010 February 1. This event, that lasted 1 d, has a narrow frequency band around 0.1 Hz, and it occurred at a distance of 150° to the USArray network, South of Australia. We show that the most energetic phase observed is the PKPab phase. Direct amplitude analysis of regional seismograms confirms the occurrence of this event. We compare the seismic observations with models of the spectral density of the pressure field generated by the interferences between oceanic waves. We attribute the observed signals to a storm-generated microseismic event that occurred along the South East Indian Ridge.

A stochastic storm surge generator for the German North Sea and the multivariate statistical assessment of the simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Jensen, Jürgen; Mudersbach, Christoph

2010-05-01

Storm surges along the German North Sea coastline led to major damages in the past and the risk of inundation is expected to increase in the course of an ongoing climate change. The knowledge of the characteristics of possible storm surges is essential for the performance of integrated risk analyses, e.g. based on the source-pathway-receptor concept. The latter includes the storm surge simulation/analyses (source), modelling of dike/dune breach scenarios (pathway) and the quantification of potential losses (receptor). In subproject 1b of the German joint research project XtremRisK (www.xtremrisk.de), a stochastic storm surge generator for the south-eastern North Sea area is developed. The input data for the multivariate model are high resolution sea level observations from tide gauges during extreme events. Based on 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters) observed storm surge hydrographs consisting of three tides are parameterised. Followed by the adaption of common parametric probability distributions and a large number of Monte-Carlo-Simulations, the final reconstruction leads to a set of 100.000 (default) synthetic storm surge events with a one-minute resolution. Such a data set can potentially serve as the basis for a large number of applications. For risk analyses, storm surges with peak water levels exceeding the design water levels are of special interest. The occurrence probabilities of the simulated extreme events are estimated based on multivariate statistics, considering the parameters "peak water level" and "fullness/intensity". In the past, most studies considered only the peak water levels during extreme events, which might not be the most important parameter in any cases. Here, a 2D-Archimedian copula model is used for the estimation of the joint probabilities of the selected parameters, accounting for the structures of dependence overlooking the margins. In coordination with subproject 1a, the results will be used as the input for the XtremRisK subprojects 2 to 4. The project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project No. 03 F 0483 B).

Atmospheric Dynamics of Sub-Tropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar

Meso-alpha/beta scale observational and meso-beta/gamma scale numerical model analyses were performed to study the atmospheric dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodele Depression dust storms. For each dust storm case study, MERRA reanalysis datasets, WRF simulated very high resolution datasets, MODIS/Aqua and Terra images, EUMETSAT images, NAAPS aerosol modelling plots, CALIPSO images, surface observations, and rawinsonde soundings were analyzed. The analysis of each dust storm carried out separately and an in-depth comparison of the events shows some similarities among the three case studies: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) small scale dust emission events which occurred prior to the formation of the primary large-scale dust storms, (3) cross mountain flows which produced a strong leeside inversion layer prior to the large scale dust storm, (4) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the mid-tropospheric jet streak in the lee of the mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (5) major dust storm formation was accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-beta scale adjustment process, (6) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), (7) formation in the lee of nearby mountains, and (8) the emission of the dust occurred initially in narrow meso-beta scale zones parallel to the mountains, and later reached the meso-alpha scale when suspended dust was transported away from the mountains. In addition to this there were additional meso-beta scale and meso-gamma scale adjustment processes resulting in Kelvin waves in the Harmattan and the Bodele Depression cases and the thermally-forced MPS circulation in all of these three cases. The Kelvin wave preceded a cold pool accompanying the air behind the large scale cold front instrumental in the major dust storm. The Kelvin wave organized the major dust storm in a narrow zone parallel to the mountains before it expanded upscale. The thermally-forced meos-gamma scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, resulted in the numerous dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and the TKE generation. This indicates that there were meso-beta to meso-gamma scale adjustment processes at the lower levels after the imbalance within the exit region of the upper level jet streaks and these processes were responsible for causing the large scale dust storms. Most notably, the sub-tropical jet streak caused the dust storm nearer to the equatorial region after its interaction with the thermally perturbed air mass on the lee of the Tibesti Mountains in the Bodele case study, which is different than the two other cases where the polar jet streaks played this same role at higher latitudes. This represents an original finding. Additionally, a climatological analysis of 15 years (1997-2011) of dust events over the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) in the desert of Southern California was performed to evaluate how the extratropical systems influenced the cause of dust storms over this region. This study indicates that dust events were associated with the development of a deep convective boundary layer, turbulent kinetic energy ≥3 J/kg, a lapse rate between dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic, wind speed above the frictional threshold wind speed necessary to ablate dust from the surface (≥7.3m/s), above the surface the presence of a cold trough, and strong cyclonic jet. These processes are similar in many ways to the dynamics in the other subtropical case studies. This also indicated that the annual mean number of dust events, their mean duration, and the unit duration per number of event were positively correlated with each of the visibility ranges, when binned for <11.2km, <8km, <4.8km, <1.6km, and <1km. The percentage of the dust events by season show that most of the dust events occurred in autumn (44.7%), followed by spring (38.3%) and equally in summer and winter with these seasons each accounting for 8.5% of events.

Signatures of cosmic-ray increase attributed to exceptional solar storms inferred from multiple cosmogenic radionuclide records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Adolphi, Florian; Svensson, Anders; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran; McConnell, Joseph R.; Sigl, Michael; Welten, Kees C.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

2014-05-01

Miyake et al. (2012, 2013) discovered rapid increases of 14C content in tree rings dated to AD 774-5 and AD 993-4 which they have attributed to cosmic-ray events. These extreme particle events have no counterparts in the instrumental record and have been tentatively associated with solar proton events, supernovae and short gamma-ray bursts, which have very different energy spectra. Cosmogenic radionuclides such as 14C, 10Be and 36Cl arise from the interaction of cosmic rays with atmospheric nitrogen, oxygen and argon. These radio-isotopes are produced through different reaction pathways and vary with different energy dependencies of the production rate cross section. Owing to this, yield functions can be used to determine the energy level of incident particles. However, only 14C has been measured at high resolution to quantify the energy and thus the origin of the outbursts. We present an annually resolved record of 10Be from the NGRIP ice core for the two events. In addition, we also utilized the GRIP ice core 36Cl record in our analysis. Our results show that the differential production of cosmogenic 14C, 10Be and 36Cl is consistent with a solar energy spectrum. Considering the notable increase in radionuclides, the solar storms would have had to be substantially greater than the largest recorded geomagnetic storm, the so-called Carrington event. This challenges our understanding of the sun's dynamics. Furthermore, the events could possibly be of interest for the investigation of potential cosmic ray-cloud linkages (Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997). Alternatively, such outbursts of energetic particles have the potential to deplete atmospheric ozone and alter atmospheric circulation. Ultimately, the magnitude of such particle events draws attention to the perhaps underestimated potential of the sun to cause great damage to modern technologies. References Miyake, F., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. Another rapid event in the carbon-14 content of tree rings. Nature Communications 4:1748, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms2783 (2013). Miyake, F., Nagaya, K., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. A signature of cosmic-ray increase in AD 774-775 from tree rings in Japan. Nature 486, 240-242, DOI: 210.1038/nature11123 (2012). Svensmark, H., & Friis-Christensen, E. Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - A missing link in solar-climate relationships. J. Atmos. Sol., Terr. Phys., 59, 225-1232, DOI: 10.1029/1998JD200091 (1997).

Catalogue of extreme wave events in Ireland: revised and updated for 14 680 BP to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Laura; Renzi, Emiliano; Dudley, John M.; Clancy, Colm; Dias, Frédéric

2018-03-01

This paper aims to extend and update the survey of extreme wave events in Ireland that was previously carried out by O'Brien et al. (2013). The original catalogue highlighted the frequency of such events dating back as far as the turn of the last ice age and as recent as 2012. Ireland's marine territory extends far beyond its coastline and is one of the largest seabed territories in Europe. It is therefore not surprising that extreme waves have continued to occur regularly since 2012, particularly considering the severity of weather during the winters of 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. In addition, a large number of storm surges have been identified since the publication of the original catalogue. This paper updates the O'Brien et al. (2013) catalogue to include events up to the end of 2017. Storm surges are included as a new category and events are categorised into long waves (tsunamis and storm surges) and short waves (storm and rogue waves). New results prior to 2012 are also included and some of the events previously documented are reclassified. Important questions regarding public safety, services and the influence of climate change are also highlighted. An interactive map has been created to allow the reader to navigate through events: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19cZ59pDHfDnXKYIziYAVWV6AfoE&usp=sharing.

Urban nonpoint source pollution buildup and washoff models for simulating storm runoff quality in the Los Angeles County.

PubMed

Wang, Long; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian; Maqsood, Imran

2011-07-01

Many urban nonpoint source pollution models utilize pollutant buildup and washoff functions to simulate storm runoff quality of urban catchments. In this paper, two urban pollutant washoff load models are derived using pollutant buildup and washoff functions. The first model assumes that there is no residual pollutant after a storm event while the second one assumes that there is always residual pollutant after each storm event. The developed models are calibrated and verified with observed data from an urban catchment in the Los Angeles County. The application results show that the developed model with consideration of residual pollutant is more capable of simulating nonpoint source pollution from urban storm runoff than that without consideration of residual pollutant. For the study area, residual pollutant should be considered in pollutant buildup and washoff functions for simulating urban nonpoint source pollution when the total runoff volume is less than 30 mm. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crossing the front: contrasting storm-forced dispersal dynamics revealed by biological, geological and genetic analysis of beach-cast kelp.

PubMed

Waters, Jonathan M; King, Tania M; Fraser, Ceridwen I; Craw, Dave

2018-03-01

The subtropical front (STF) generally represents a substantial oceanographic barrier to dispersal between cold-sub-Antarctic and warm-temperate water masses. Recent studies have suggested that storm events can drastically influence marine dispersal and patterns. Here we analyse biological and geological dispersal driven by two major, contrasting storm events in southern New Zealand, 2017. We integrate biological and physical data to show that a severe southerly system in July 2017 disrupted this barrier by promoting movement of substantial numbers of southern sub-Antarctic Durvillaea kelp rafts across the STF, to make landfall in mainland NZ. By contrast, a less intense easterly storm (Cyclone Cook, April 2017) resulted in more moderate dispersal distances, with minimal dispersal between the sub-Antarctic and mainland New Zealand. These quantitative analyses of approximately 200 freshly beach-cast kelp specimens indicate that storm intensity and wind direction can strongly influence marine dispersal and landfall outcomes. © 2018 The Author(s).

Application of Radar-Rainfall Estimates to Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Carolinas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Caldwell, R. J.; Sankovich, V.

2011-12-01

Extreme storm rainfall data are essential in the assessment of potential impacts on design precipitation amounts, which are used in flood design criteria for dams and nuclear power plants. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) from National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Report 51 (HMR51) is currently used for design rainfall estimates in the eastern U.S. The extreme storm database associated with the report has not been updated since the early 1970s. In the past several decades, several extreme precipitation events have occurred that have the potential to alter the PMP values, particularly across the Southeast United States (e.g., Hurricane Floyd 1999). Unfortunately, these and other large precipitation-producing storms have not been analyzed with the detail required for application in design studies. This study focuses on warm-season tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Carolinas, as these systems are the critical maximum rainfall mechanisms in the region. The goal is to discern if recent tropical events may have reached or exceeded current PMP values. We have analyzed 10 storms using modern datasets and methodologies that provide enhanced spatial and temporal resolution relative to point measurements used in past studies. Specifically, hourly multisensor precipitation reanalysis (MPR) data are used to estimate storm total precipitation accumulations at various durations throughout each storm event. The accumulated grids serve as input to depth-area-duration calculations. Individual storms are then maximized using back-trajectories to determine source regions for moisture. The development of open source software has made this process time and resource efficient. Based on the current methodology, two of the ten storms analyzed have the potential to challenge HMR51 PMP values. Maximized depth-area curves for Hurricane Floyd indicate exceedance at 24- and 72-hour durations for large area sizes, while Hurricane Fran (1996) appears to exceed PMP at large area sizes for short-duration, 6-hour storms. Utilizing new methods and data, however, requires careful consideration of the potential limitations and caveats associated with the analysis and further evaluation of the newer storms within the context of historical storms from HMR51. Here, we provide a brief background on extreme rainfall in the Carolinas, along with an overview of the methods employed for converting MPR to depth-area relationships. Discussion of the issues and limitations, evaluation of the various techniques, and comparison to HMR51 storms and PMP values are also presented.

The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augusto, C. R. A.; Navia, C. E.; de Oliveira, M. N.; Nepomuceno, A. A.; Raulin, J. P.; Tueros, E.; de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Fauth, A. C.; Vieira de Souza, H.; Kopenkin, V.; Sinzi, T.

2018-05-01

We report on the 22 - 23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22 - 23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured {˜} 56° degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun-Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton radiation storm that began on 21 June. We did not find a signal from this SEP at ground level. The details of these observations are presented.

Investigating extreme event loading on coastal bridges using wireless sensor technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelineau, Douglas A.; Davis, Justin R.; Rice, Jennifer A.

2017-04-01

Coastal infrastructure, such as bridges, are susceptible to many forms of coastal hazards: particularly hurricane surge and wave loading. These two forms of loading can cause catastrophic damage to aging highway infrastructure. It is estimated that storm damage costs the United States about $50 Billion per year. In light of this, it is crucial that we understand the damaging forces placed on infrastructure during storm events so that we can develop safer and more resilient coastal structures. This paper presents the ongoing research to enable the efficient collection of extreme event loads acting on both the substructure and superstructure of low clearance, simple span, reinforced concrete bridges. Bridges of this type were commonly constructed during the 1950's and 60's and are particularly susceptible to deck unseating caused by hurricane surge and wave loading. The sensing technology used to capture this data must be ruggedized to survive in an extremely challenging environment, be designed to allow for redundancy in the event of sensors or other network components being lost in the storm, and be relatively low cost to allow for more bridges to be instrumented per storm event. The prototype system described in this paper includes wireless technology, rapid data transmission, and, for the sensors, self-contained power. While this specific application focuses on hurricane hazards, the framework can be extended to include other natural hazards.

Comparison between Measured and Calculated Sediment Transport Rates in North Fork Caspar Creek, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T. W.; Yarnell, S. M.; Yager, E.; Leidman, S. Z.

2015-12-01

Caspar Creek is a gravel-bedded stream located in the Jackson Demonstration State Forest in the coast range of California. The Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed has been actively monitored and studied by the Pacific Southwest Research Station and California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection for over five decades. Although total annual sediment yield has been monitored through time, sediment transport during individual storm events is less certain. At a study site on North Fork Caspar Creek, cross-section averaged sediment flux was collected throughout two storm events in December 2014 and February 2015 to determine if two commonly used sediment transport equations—Meyer-Peter-Müller and Wilcock—approximated observed bedload transport. Cross-section averaged bedload samples were collected approximately every hour during each storm event using a Helley-Smith bedload sampler. Five-minute composite samples were collected at five equally spaced locations along a cross-section and then sieved to half-phi sizes to determine the grain size distribution. The measured sediment flux values varied widely throughout the storm hydrographs and were consistently less than two orders of magnitude in value in comparison to the calculated values. Armored bed conditions, changing hydraulic conditions during each storm and variable sediment supply may have contributed to the observed differences.

The Climate Science Special Report: Detection and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.

2017-12-01

The Climate Science Special Report reiterates previous findings about the human influence on global mean surface air temperature with the statement "…it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid 20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence." This is a statement made with high confidence and supported by multiple lines of evidence. The report also assesses the latest developments in the field of probabilistic extreme event attribution—the quantification of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on individual extreme weather events—with a focus on those recent events within the United States that have been analyzed. Thirty different events within the US are reported on including heat waves, cold snaps, wet seasons, individual storms and droughts. Most but not all of the individual US events studied revealed an influence from human induced changes to the climate system.

High-frequency in situ optical measurements during a storm event: Assessing relationships between dissolved organic matter, sediment concentrations, and hydrologic processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saraceno, John F.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Downing, Bryan D.; Boss, Emmanuel; Bachand, Philip A. M.; Bergamaschi, Brian A.

2009-01-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics during storm events has received considerable attention in forested watersheds, but the extent to which storms impart rapid changes in DOM concentration and composition in highly disturbed agricultural watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we used identical in situ optical sensors for DOM fluorescence (FDOM) with and without filtration to continuously evaluate surface water DOM dynamics in a 415 km2agricultural watershed over a 4 week period containing a short-duration rainfall event. Peak turbidity preceded peak discharge by 4 h and increased by over 2 orders of magnitude, while the peak filtered FDOM lagged behind peak turbidity by 15 h. FDOM values reported using the filtered in situ fluorometer increased nearly fourfold and were highly correlated with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations (r2 = 0.97), providing a highly resolved proxy for DOC throughout the study period. Discrete optical properties including specific UV absorbance (SUVA254), spectral slope (S290–350), and fluorescence index (FI) were also strongly correlated with in situ FDOM and indicate a shift toward aromatic, high molecular weight DOM from terrestrially derived sources during the storm. The lag of the peak in FDOM behind peak discharge presumably reflects the draining of watershed soils from natural and agricultural landscapes. Field and experimental evidence showed that unfiltered FDOM measurements underestimated filtered FDOM concentrations by up to ∼60% at particle concentrations typical of many riverine systems during hydrologic events. Together, laboratory and in situ data provide insights into the timing and magnitude of changes in DOM quantity and quality during storm events in an agricultural watershed, and indicate the need for sample filtration in systems with moderate to high suspended sediment loads.

The National Shipbuilding Research Program. Strategies and Demonstrations for the Reduction of Government Regulations Related to Commercial Shipbuilding

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

inspecting storm water quality associated with storm water runoff or snowmelt: January through March; April through June: July through September and October...beyond those described in Part V.B. of this permit. 5. Monitoring and Reporting . Requirements Storm Water Quality . Facilities shall perform and document...event. (I) Examinations shall be conducted in each of the following periods for the purposes of visually inspecting storm water quality associated

The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

PubMed

Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

2017-08-15

Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal Lake Record of Holocene Paleo-Storms from Northwest Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donoghue, J. F.; Coor, J. L.; Wang, Y.; Das, O.; Kish, S.; Elsner, J.; Hu, X. B.; Niedoroda, A. W.; Ye, M.

2009-12-01

The northwest Florida coast of the Gulf of Mexico has an unusually active storm history. Climate records for a study area in the mid-region of the Florida panhandle coast show that 29 hurricanes have made landfall within a 100-km radius during historic time. These events included 9 major storms (category 3 or higher). A longer-term geologic record of major storm impacts is essential for better understanding storm climatology and refining morphodynamic models. The Florida panhandle region contains a series of unique coastal lakes which are long-lived and whose bottom sediments hold a long-term record of coastal storm occurrence. The lakes are normally isolated from the open Gulf, protected behind a near-continuous dune barrier. Lake water is normally fresh to brackish. Lake bottom sediments consist of organic-rich muds. During major storms the dunes are breached and the lakes are temporarily open to marine water and the possibility of sandy overwash. Both a sedimentologic and geochemical signature is imparted to the lake sediments by storm events. Bottom sediment cores have been collected from the lakes. The cores have been subsampled and subjected to sedimentologic, stable isotopic and geochronologic analyses. The result is a sediment history of the lakes, and a record of storm occurrence during the past few millennia. The outcome is a better understanding of the long-term risk of major storms. The findings are being incorporated into a larger model designed to make reliable predictions of the effects of near-future climate change on natural coastal systems and on coastal infrastructure, and to enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Classification of Snowfall Events and Their Effect on Canopy Interception Efficiency in a Temperate Montane Forest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, T. R.; Nolin, A. W.

2015-12-01

Forest canopies intercept as much as 60% of snowfall in maritime environments, while processes of sublimation and melt can reduce the amount of snow transferred from the canopy to the ground. This research examines canopy interception efficiency (CIE) as a function of forest and event-scale snowfall characteristics. We use a 4-year dataset of continuous meteorological measurements and monthly snow surveys from the Forest Elevation Snow Transect (ForEST) network that has forested and open sites at three elevations spanning the rain-snow transition zone to the upper seasonal snow zone. Over 150 individual storms were classified by forest and storm type characteristics (e.g. forest density, vegetation type, air temperature, snowfall amount, storm duration, wind speed, and storm direction). The between-site comparisons showed that, as expected, CIE was highest for the lower elevation (warmer) sites with higher forest density compared with the higher elevation sites where storm temperatures were colder, trees were smaller and forests were less dense. Within-site comparisons based on storm type show that this classification system can be used to predict CIE.Our results suggest that the coupling of forest type and storm type information can improve estimates of canopy interception. Understanding the effects of temperature and storm type in temperate montane forests is also valuable for future estimates of canopy interception under a warming climate.

Winter maintenance performance measure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms

PubMed Central

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-01-01

Introduction: This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Methods: Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. Results: Results indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Discussion: Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced. PMID:25685629

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

First flush of storm runoff pollution from an urban catchment in China.

PubMed

Li, Li-Qing; Yin, Cheng-Qing; He, Qing-Ci; Kong, Ling-Li

2007-01-01

Storm runoff pollution process was investigated in an urban catchment with an area of 1.3 km2 in Wuhan City of China. The results indicate that the pollutant concentration peaks preceded the flow peaks in all of 8 monitored storm events. The intervals between pollution peak and flow peak were shorter in the rain events with higher intensity in the initial period than those with lower intensity. The fractions of pollution load transported by the first 30% of runoff volume (FF30) were 52.2%-72.1% for total suspended solids (TSS), 53.0%-65.3% for chemical oxygen demand (COD), 40.4%-50.6% for total nitrogen (TN), and 45.8%-63.2% for total phosphorus (TP), respectively. Runoff pollution was positively related to non-raining days before the rainfall. Intercepting the first 30% of runoff volume can remove 62.4% of TSS load, 59.4% of COD load, 46.8% of TN load, and 54.1% of TP load, respectively, according to all the storm events. It is suggested that controlling the first flush is a critical measure in reduction of urban stormwater pollution.

Self-Consistency of Rain Event Definitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teves, J. B.; Larsen, M.

2014-12-01

A dense optical rain disdrometer array was constructed to study rain variability on spatial scales less than 100 meters with temporal resolution of 1 minute. Approximately two months of data were classified into rain events using methods common in the literature. These methods were unable to identify an array-wide consensus as to the total number of rain events; instruments as little as 2 meters apart with similar data records sometimes identified different rain event totals. Physical considerations suggest that these differing event totals are likely due to instrument sampling fluctuations that are typically not accounted for in rain event studies. Detection of varying numbers of rain events impact many commonly used storm statistics including storm duration distributions and mean rain rate. A summary of the results above and their implications are presented.

Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Daniel N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Kanekal, S. G.

Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection-driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching –223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching –204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high-energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed amore » rich variety of pitch angle features including strong “butterfly” distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported “impenetrable barrier” at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Altogether, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis.« less

Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015

DOE PAGES

Baker, Daniel N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; ...

2016-07-01

Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection-driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching –223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching –204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high-energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed amore » rich variety of pitch angle features including strong “butterfly” distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported “impenetrable barrier” at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Altogether, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis.« less

Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

PubMed

Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

2015-11-01

For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Foster, J. C.; Erickson, P. J.; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Elkington, S. R.; Henderson, M. G.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C. A.; Wygant, J. R.

2016-07-01

Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection-driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching -223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching -204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high-energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong "butterfly" distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported "impenetrable barrier" at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis.

Total electron content responses to HILDCAAs and geomagnetic storms over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mara de Siqueira Negreti, Patricia; Rodrigues de Paula, Eurico; Nicoli Candido, Claudia Maria

2017-12-01

Total electron content (TEC) is extensively used to monitor the ionospheric behavior under geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions. This subject is of greatest importance for space weather applications. Under disturbed conditions the two main sources of electric fields, which are responsible for changes in the plasma drifts and for current perturbations, are the short-lived prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs) and the longer-lasting ionospheric disturbance dynamo (DD) electric fields. Both mechanisms modulate the TEC around the globe and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) at low latitudes. In this work we computed vertical absolute TEC over the low latitude of South America. The analysis was performed considering HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet (AE) activity) events and geomagnetic storms. The characteristics of storm-time TEC and HILDCAA-associated TEC will be presented and discussed. For both case studies presented in this work (March and August 2013) the HILDCAA event follows a geomagnetic storm, and then a global scenario of geomagnetic disturbances will be discussed. Solar wind parameters, geomagnetic indices, O / N2 ratios retrieved by GUVI instrument onboard the TIMED satellite and TEC observations will be analyzed and discussed. Data from the RBMC/IBGE (Brazil) and IGS GNSS networks were used to calculate TEC over South America. We show that a HILDCAA event may generate larger TEC differences compared to the TEC observed during the main phase of the precedent geomagnetic storm; thus, a HILDCAA event may be more effective for ionospheric response in comparison to moderate geomagnetic storms, considering the seasonal conditions. During the August HILDCAA event, TEC enhancements from ˜ 25 to 80 % (compared to quiet time) were observed. These enhancements are much higher than the quiet-time variability observed in the ionosphere. We show that ionosphere is quite sensitive to solar wind forcing and considering the events studied here, this was the most important source of ionospheric responses. Furthermore, the most important source of TEC changes were the long-lasting PPEFs observed on August 2013, during the HILDCAA event. The importance of this study relies on the peculiarity of the region analyzed characterized by high declination angle and ionospheric gradients which are responsible for creating a complex response during disturbed periods.

Concentration-Discharge Behavior of Contaminants in a Stream Impacted by Acid Mine Drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, M. E.; Klein, M.; Herndon, E.

2017-12-01

Acid mine drainage (AMD) has severely degraded streams throughout the Appalachian coal region of the United States. AMD occurs when pyrite contained in coal is exposed to water and air during mining activities and oxidized to release high concentrations of sulfate, metals, and acidity into water bodies. Little is known about the concentration-discharge (CQ) relationships of solutes in AMD-impacted streams due to the complicated nature of acid mine drainage systems. For example, streams may receive inputs from multiple sources that include runoff, constructed treatment systems, and abandoned mines that bypass these systems to continue to contaminate the streams. It is important to understand the CQ relationships of contaminants in AMD-impacted streams in order to elucidate contaminant sources and to predict effects on aquatic ecosystems. Here, we study the CQ behaviors of acid and metals in a contaminated watershed in northeastern Ohio where limestone channels have been installed to remediate water draining from a mine pool into the stream. Stream chemistry was measured in samples collected once per day or once per hour during storm events, and stream flow was measured continuously at the watershed outlet. Increases in stream velocity during storm events resulted in an increase in pH (from 3 to 6) that subsequently decreased back to 3 as flow decreased. Additionally, Fe and Mn concentrations in the stream were high during baseflow (7 and 15 mg/L, respectively) and decreased with increasing discharge during storm events. These results indicate that the treatment system is only effective at neutralizing stream acidity and removing metals when water flow through the limestone channel is continuous. We infer that the acidic and metal-rich baseflow derives from upwelling of contaminated groundwater or subsurface flow from a mine pool. Ongoing studies aim to isolate the source of this baseflow contamination and evaluate the geochemical transformations that occur as it flows into the stream.

WSR-88D Cell Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark M.

1998-01-01

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

Ionospheric Density Enhancements at Low and Middle Latitudes during Superstorms Observed from Multiple Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, J.; Wang, W.; Burns, A. G.; Yue, X.

2014-12-01

The total electron content (TEC) data measured by the Jason, CHAMP, GRACE and SAC-C satellites, the in-situ electron densities from CHAMP and GRACE, and the vertical E×B drifts from the ROCSAT satellite are utilized to examine the ionospheric response to superstorms. The combination of observations from multiple satellites provides a unique global view of positive ionospheric storm effect at low and middle latitudes, especially over Oceans and under sunlit conditions during the main phases of the storms. In this talk, we will focus on the morphology, evolution and driving mechanisms of the storm-time ionosphere and explore the relative contributions of the horizontal and vertical transport effects to the observed positive storm phase at different latitudes.

Understanding and predicting the impact of extreme storms events on European coastlines: the MICORE approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, P.

2009-04-01

Both the EU and The United Nations are now taking seriously the predicted climate change scenarios of the IPCC. Of particular relevance to Integrated Coastal Zone Management is the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of powerful storm events characterised by larger peak wind speeds and consequently larger waves. Engineering has usually been favoured in the past as the best option for disaster mitigation at the coast. However, most engineering works are constrained by economics, and a compromise is sought between the potential threat to lives and property and the resources available for design and construction. Furthermore, the design of structures is based on predicted extreme events which themselves are subject to uncertainty, especially in a rapidly changing global climate. The huge damage to the city of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina illustrates clearly what can go wrong when the engineering design is subjected to forcing beyond its design limits and when civil evacuation and management plans fail. The proposed paper will address the issue of encouraging and facilitating exchange of information on storm impacts produced by nationally funded projects in Member States; establishing robust data management and data quality control and engaging with stakeholders and end users to optimise dissemination strategies. It will heavily rely on the information produced by the MICORE Project (FP7 contract 202798), using and enlarging the database collated by the project regarding the characteristics of extreme storm events occurred in the last 50 years. The MICORE project (www.micore.eu) will provide the knowledge necessary to assess the present day risks and to study the economic and social impact of future severe storm events. Together, these elements will have an important strategic impact on the safety of the people living in coastal areas and upon decision processes aimed at minimising the economic consequences of extreme events. The project will also investigate with stakeholders and end-users the possibilities of producing EU-wide guidelines for a viable and reliable risk mitigation strategy. One of the initial main objectives of MICORE is to produce an up-to-date data base for each partner country that includes: an historical review of storms; an inventory of data related to the forcing signals; quantification of the morphological response of coastal systems to storms and to sequences of storms; an assessment of socio-economic impact; a description of existing civil protection schemes and interventions. The MICORE project will identify indices for coastal vulnerability to erosion with an integrated EU perspective using the standardised data bases assembled for all member states. It will also recommend future data collection requirements that best serve the needs of coastal managers. Here an area of innovation in the project is the standardization in the production of vulnerability matrices for evaluation of society impact from storms.

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980–2012

PubMed Central

FUSSELL, ELIZABETH; CURRAN, SARA R.; DUNBAR, MATTHEW D.; BABB, MICHAEL A.; THOMPSON, LUANNE; MEIJER-IRONS, JACQUELINE

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies. PMID:29326480

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Fussell, Elizabeth; Curran, Sara R; Dunbar, Matthew D; Babb, Michael A; Thompson, Luanne; Meijer-Irons, Jacqueline

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

Test of the efficiency of three storm water quality models with a rich set of data.

PubMed

Ahyerre, M; Henry, F O; Gogien, F; Chabanel, M; Zug, M; Renaudet, D

2005-01-01

The objective of this article is to test the efficiency of three different Storm Water Quality Model (SWQM) on the same data set (34 rain events, SS measurements) sampled on a 42 ha watershed in the center of Paris. The models have been calibrated at the scale of the rain event. Considering the mass of pollution calculated per event, the results on the models are satisfactory but that they are in the same order of magnitude as the simple hydraulic approach associated to a constant concentration. In a second time, the mass of pollutant at the outlet of the catchment at the global scale of the 34 events has been calculated. This approach shows that the simple hydraulic calculations gives better results than SWQM. Finally, the pollutographs are analysed, showing that storm water quality models are interesting tools to represent the shape of the pollutographs, and the dynamics of the phenomenon which can be useful in some projects for managers.

Storm-driven Mixing and Potential Impact on the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Jiayan; Comiso, Josefino; Walsh, David; Krishfield, Richard; Honjo, Susumu; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Evaluating the Impacts of Extreme Events on Ecological Processes Through the Lens of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Driscoll, C. T.; Fahey, T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Schaberg, P. G.

2016-12-01

It is increasingly evident that human-induced climate change is altering the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events. Ice storms are an example of a rare and typically localized extreme weather event that is difficult to predict and has impacts that are poorly understood. We used long-term data and a field manipulation experiment to evaluate how ice storms alter the structure, function, and composition of forest ecosystems. Plots established after a major ice storm in the Northeast in 1998 were re-sampled to evaluate longer-term (17 yr) responses of tree health, productivity, and species composition. Results indicate, that despite changes in herbaceous vegetation in the years immediately after the ice storm, the forest canopy recovered, albeit with some changes in composition, most notably a release of American Beech. An ice storm field manipulation experiment was used to evaluate mechanistic understanding of short term ecological responses. Water from a stream was sprayed above the forest canopy when air temperatures were below freezing, which was effective in simulating a natural ice storm. The experimental design consisted of three levels of ice thickness treatment with two replicates per treatment. The plots with the two more severe icing treatments experienced significant damage to the forest canopy, creating gaps. These plots also had large inputs of fine and coarse woody debris to the forest floor. The exposure to light and presence of brush piles in the more heavily damaged plots resulted in warming with increased spatial variability of soil temperature. Preliminary results from the early growing season have shown no significant changes in soil respiration or soil solution losses of nutrients despite significant forest canopy damage. Further monitoring will determine whether these trends continue in the future.

Characterization of dominant hydrologic events: the role of spatial, temporal and climatic forces in generating the greatest sediment loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squires, A. L.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E. S.

2013-12-01

Soil erosion and the ensuing elevated sediment loads in surface water bodies result in impaired water quality and unsuitable habitat for salmonid species and other cold water biota. Increased sediment loads also relate to high nutrient levels in streams at downstream locations. Identification of the most sensitive factors leading to major sediment loads is useful in selection and placement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs), especially those that are management oriented such as nutrient management plans and the timing of tillage. Many BMPs work well for average storms but do not achieve desired results during the large storms, when hydrologically sensitive areas contribute the greatest amount of runoff and erosion. Research has shown that the majority of sediment loads in streams and rivers occur during a small proportion of the year, specifically during a few large storm events. In this research, we look beyond the conclusion that large events contribute the majority of sediment loads by investigating the driving forces behind each event. Long-term monitoring data were used from two monitoring stations in a small, mixed land use watershed in northern Idaho. The upper monitoring station is below mostly agricultural land use, and the lower monitoring station is below mostly urban land use. The watershed in question, Paradise Creek in Idaho, is the subject of a sediment TMDL which has not yet been consistently achieved and is currently up for review by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality. We statistically analyzed the influence of multiple interacting variables on the magnitude of sediment loads during hydrologic events from 2002 to 2012. Spatial (i.e., above and below monitoring station data), temporal (i.e., seasonality), and climatic effects (i.e., precipitation, snowfall and snow melt) were examined, as well as the presence of frozen soils and the timing of events relative to each other. We hypothesized that (1) the events with the greatest sediment loads are flow-limited but occur after mass-limited events, (2) an event that is of long duration and is slow to peak, especially during frozen soil conditions, will contribute the greatest sediment load in a given year, and (3) urban land use generates greater sediment loads than rural land use. Multivariate analysis determined which factors lead to major sediment loads. Our presentation will focus on synthesizing the interacting variables and conditions that tend to result in dominant hydrologic events and suggestions for watershed management. This research will contribute to a more accurate assessment of the hydrology and water quality in the watershed to aid in improvement of the TMDL.

Fuzzy neural network for flow estimation in sewer systems during wet weather.

PubMed

Shen, Jun; Shen, Wei; Chang, Jian; Gong, Ning

2006-02-01

Estimation of the water flow from rainfall intensity during storm events is important in hydrology, sewer system control, and environmental protection. The runoff-producing behavior of a sewer system changes from one storm event to another because rainfall loss depends not only on rainfall intensities, but also on the state of the soil and vegetation, the general condition of the climate, and so on. As such, it would be difficult to obtain a precise flowrate estimation without sufficient a priori knowledge of these factors. To establish a model for flow estimation, one can also use statistical methods, such as the neural network STORMNET, software developed at Lyonnaise des Eaux, France, analyzing the relation between rainfall intensity and flowrate data of the known storm events registered in the past for a given sewer system. In this study, the authors propose a fuzzy neural network to estimate the flowrate from rainfall intensity. The fuzzy neural network combines four STORMNETs and fuzzy deduction to better estimate the flowrates. This study's system for flow estimation can be calibrated automatically by using known storm events; no data regarding the physical characteristics of the drainage basins are required. Compared with the neural network STORMNET, this method reduces the mean square error of the flow estimates by approximately 20%. Experimental results are reported herein.

Towards a Multi-scale Montecarlo Climate Emulator for Coastal Flooding and Long-Term Coastal Change Modeling: The Beautiful Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, A.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Hegermiller, C.; Serafin, K.; Anderson, D. L.; Ruggiero, P.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Vitousek, S.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.; Gonzalez, M.; Mendez, F. J.

2016-02-01

Long-term coastal evolution and coastal flooding hazards are the result of the non-linear interaction of multiple oceanographic, hydrological, geological and meteorological forcings (e.g., astronomical tide, monthly mean sea level, large-scale storm surge, dynamic wave set-up, shoreline evolution, backshore erosion). Additionally, interannual variability and trends in storminess and sea level rise are climate drivers that must be considered. Moreover, the chronology of the hydraulic boundary conditions plays an important role since a collection of consecutive minor storm events can have more impact than the 100-yr return level event. Therefore, proper modeling of shoreline erosion, beach recovery and coastal flooding should consider the sequence of storms, the multivariate nature of the hydrodynamic forcings, and the different time scales of interest (seasonality, interannual and decadal variability). To address this `beautiful problem', we propose a hybrid approach that combines: (a) numerical hydrodynamic and morphodynamic models (SWAN for wave transformation, a shoreline change model, X-Beach for modeling infragravity waves and erosion of the backshore during extreme events and RFSM-EDA (Jamieson et al, 2012) for high resolution flooding of the coastal hinterland); (b) long-term data bases (observational and hindcast) of sea state parameters, astronomical tides and non-tidal residuals; and (c) statistical downscaling techniques, non-linear data mining, and extreme value models. The statistical downscaling approaches for multivariate variables are based on circulation patterns (Espejo et al., 2014), the chronology of the circulation patterns (Guanche et al, 2013) and the event hydrographs of multivariate extremes, resulting in a time-dependent climate emulator of hydraulic boundary conditions for coupled simulations of the coastal change and flooding models. ReferencesEspejo et al (2014) Spectral ocean wave climate variability based on circulation patterns, J Phys Oc, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0276.1 Guanche et al (2013) Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns, Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1690-3 Jamieson et al (2012) A highly efficient 2D flood model with sub-element topography, Proc. Of the Inst Civil Eng., 165(10), 581-595

Comparison of Historically Severe Droughts and the Vulnerability of Agroecosystems in Mid-Continent USA: Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, C.; Rippey, B.

2016-12-01

Extreme climatic events, drought, flooding, severe storms, tropical cyclones and winter storms have cost the USA billions of dollars. Although among major natural disasters in the last 100 years, severe drought occurrences are lower in terms of discrete events than that for other extreme events, the average cost per drought event exceeds all but those of severe storms and tropical cyclones and has significantly impacted the US agroecosystems upon which much of the domestic and export food markets depend1. The impacts from the 2012, 1988, and 1950's droughts are compared with the effects on cropland in the Mid-Continent US. Drought severity in 2012 and in 1988 were similar in terms of economic agricultural loss, 40 and 31 billion in cost-adjusted dollars, respectively. The 2012 drought covered a geographic areal extent similar to that of an earlier drought in the 1950's; roughly 2/3 of the central USA was impacted. However, the 2012 drought developed relatively rapidly in less than a year whereas the drought of the 1950's was marked by multiple years of extreme heat and lack of precipitation. Each of these severe droughts has resulted in significant losses, but the 2012 drought, while costly, could have been a larger economic disaster had the same conditions occurred in the 1950's or 1988. Investment in new technology, improvements in irrigation efficiency and advanced drainage systems, targeted soil conservation practices, and flexibility to adapt to conditions have improved the resilience of agroecosystems to drought in the intervening years. Droughts continue to occur, so a better understanding of climate and available climate services along with sustained investment in new technology will improve drought tolerance. The recent establishment of USDA Regional Climate Hubs to translate and deliver science-based, region-specific information for individual natural resource managers will enable climate-smart decision-making. Implementation is now possible at scales appropriate to identify regional and potentially local vulnerabilities and rapidly assess needs and capabilities. Downscaled climate projections developed by USDA partners and tailored to regional needs will become essential tools for future drought resilience. 1. Data trends derived from www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats

A storm time, Pc 5 event observed in the outer magnetosphere by ISEE 1 and 2 - Wave properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenstadt, E. W.; Scarf, F. L.; Mcpherron, R. L.; Anderson, R. R.

1986-01-01

The properties of the waves composing a classical storm time Pc 5 event, recorded by the satellite pair ISEE 1,2 during an inbound nearly equatorial pass in the dusk sector on August 21-22, 1978, are described. On the basis of these observations it is concluded that the events of the August 21-22 pass resulted from a combination of sources, namely, distant wideband excitation and ion drift instability, plus a coupling of wave modes. It is suggested that the observed phenomenon was a radial cross section of the type of event reported by Barfield et al. (1972).

A probabilistic storm surge risk model for the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabbert, Jan-Henrik; Reiner, Andreas; Deepen, Jan; Rodda, Harvey; Mai, Stephan; Pfeifer, Dietmar

2010-05-01

The German North Sea coast is highly exposed to storm surges. Due to its concave bay-like shape mainly orientated to the North-West, cyclones from Western, North-Western and Northern directions together with astronomical tide cause storm surges accumulating the water in the German bight. Due to the existence of widespread low-lying areas (below 5m above mean sea level) behind the defenses, large areas including large economic values are exposed to coastal flooding including cities like Hamburg or Bremen. The occurrence of extreme storm surges in the past like e.g. in 1962 taking about 300 lives and causing widespread flooding and 1976 raised the awareness and led to a redesign of the coastal defenses which provide a good level of protection for today's conditions. Never the less the risk of flooding exists. Moreover an amplification of storm surge risk can be expected under the influence of climate change. The Baltic Sea coast is also exposed to storm surges, which are caused by other meteorological patterns. The influence of the astronomical tide is quite low instead high water levels are induced by strong winds only. Since the exceptional extreme event in 1872 storm surge hazard has been more or less forgotten. Although such an event is very unlikely to happen, it is not impossible. Storm surge risk is currently (almost) non-insurable in Germany. The potential risk is difficult to quantify as there are almost no historical losses available. Also premiums are difficult to assess. Therefore a new storm surge risk model is being developed to provide a basis for a probabilistic quantification of potential losses from coastal inundation. The model is funded by the GDV (German Insurance Association) and is planned to be used within the German insurance sector. Results might be used for a discussion of insurance cover for storm surge. The model consists of a probabilistic event driven hazard and a vulnerability module, furthermore an exposure interface and a financial module to account for specific (re-) insurance conditions. This contribution will mainly concentrate on the hazard module. The hazard is covered by an event simulation engine enabling Monte Carlo simulations. The event generation is done on-the-fly. A classification of historical storm surges is used based on observed sea water levels at gauging stations and extended literature research. To characterize the origin of storm events and storm surges caused by those, also meteorological parameters like wind speed and wind direction are being used. If high water levels along the coast are mainly caused by strong wind from particular directions as observed at the North Sea, there is a clear empirical relationship between wind and surge (where surge is defined as the wind-driven component of the sea water level) which can be described by the ATWS (Average Transformed Wind speed). The parameters forming the load at the coastal defense elements are water level and wave parameters like significant wave height, wave period and wave direction. To assess the wave characteristics at the coast the numerical model SWAN (Simulating Waves Near Shore) from TU Delft has been used. To account for different probabilities of failure and inundation the coast is split into segments with similar defense characteristics like type of defense, height, width, orientation and others. The chosen approach covers the most relevant failure mechanisms for coastal dikes induced by wave overtopping and overflow. Dune failure is also considered in the model. Inundation of the hinterland after defense failure is modeled using a simple dynamical 2d-approach resulting in distributed water depths and flood outlines for each segment. Losses can be estimated depending on the input exposure data either coordinate based for single buildings or aggregated on postal code level using a set of depths-damage functions.

Bleaching/blinking assisted localization microscopy for superresolution imaging using standard fluorescent molecules.

PubMed

Burnette, Dylan T; Sengupta, Prabuddha; Dai, Yuhai; Lippincott-Schwartz, Jennifer; Kachar, Bechara

2011-12-27

Superresolution imaging techniques based on the precise localization of single molecules, such as photoactivated localization microscopy (PALM) and stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM), achieve high resolution by fitting images of single fluorescent molecules with a theoretical Gaussian to localize them with a precision on the order of tens of nanometers. PALM/STORM rely on photoactivated proteins or photoswitching dyes, respectively, which makes them technically challenging. We present a simple and practical way of producing point localization-based superresolution images that does not require photoactivatable or photoswitching probes. Called bleaching/blinking assisted localization microscopy (BaLM), the technique relies on the intrinsic bleaching and blinking behaviors characteristic of all commonly used fluorescent probes. To detect single fluorophores, we simply acquire a stream of fluorescence images. Fluorophore bleach or blink-off events are detected by subtracting from each image of the series the subsequent image. Similarly, blink-on events are detected by subtracting from each frame the previous one. After image subtractions, fluorescence emission signals from single fluorophores are identified and the localizations are determined by fitting the fluorescence intensity distribution with a theoretical Gaussian. We also show that BaLM works with a spectrum of fluorescent molecules in the same sample. Thus, BaLM extends single molecule-based superresolution localization to samples labeled with multiple conventional fluorescent probes.

Observing storm surges from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Guoqi

2016-07-01

Storm surges can cause catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to enhance our capabilities of observing and forecasting storm surges for mitigating damage and loss. In this presentation we show examples of observing storm surges around the world using nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy, Igor, and Isaac, as well as other cyclone events. The satellite observations are evaluated against tide-gauge observations and discussed for dynamic mechanisms. We also show the potential of a new wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

2015-12-01

Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

Characterization of storm flow dynamics of headwater streams in the South Carolina lower coastal plain

Treesearch

Thomas H. Epps; Daniel R. Hitchcock; Anand D. Jayakaran; Drake R. Loflin; Thomas M. Williams; Devendra M. Amatya

2013-01-01

Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first-order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three-year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph...

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clune, Thomas; Freeman, Shawn; Cruz, Carlos; Burns, Robert; Kuo, Kwo-Sen; Kouatchou, Jules

2013-01-01

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

Glider monitoring of shelf suspended particle dynamics and transport during storm and flooding conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourrin, François; Many, Gaël; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Martín, Jacobo; Puig, Pere; Houpert, Loic; Testor, Pierre; Kunesch, Stéphane; Mahiouz, Karim; Béguery, Laurent

2015-10-01

Transfers of particulate matter on continental margins primarily occur during energetic events. As part of the CASCADE (CAscading, Storm, Convection, Advection and Downwelling Events) experiment, a glider equipped with optical sensors was deployed in the coastal area of the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean in March 2011 to assess the spatio-temporal variability of hydrology, suspended particles properties and fluxes during energetic conditions. This deployment complemented a larger observational effort, a part of the MOOSE (Mediterranean Ocean Observing System of the Environment) network, composed of a coastal benthic station, a surface buoy and moorings on the continental slope. This set of observations permitted to measure the impact of three consecutive storms and a flood event across the entire continental shelf. Glider data showed that the sediment resuspension and transport observed at the coastal station during the largest storm (Hs>4 m) was effective down to a water depth of 80 m. The mid-shelf mud belt, located between 40 and 90 m depth, appears as the zone where the along-shelf flux of suspended sediment is maximum. Besides, the across-shelf flux of suspended sediment converges towards the outer limit of the mid-shelf mud belt, where deposition of suspended particles probably occurs and contributes to the nourishment of this area. Hydrological structures, suspended particles transport and properties changed drastically during stormy periods and the following flood event. Prior to the storms, the shelf waters were weakly stratified due in particular to the presence of cold dense water on the inner- and mid-shelf. The storms rapidly swept away this dense water, as well as the resuspended sediments, along the shelf and towards a downstream submarine canyon. The buoyant river plumes that spread along the shelf after the flooding period provoked a restratification of the water column on the inner- and mid-shelf. The analysis of glider's optical data at different wavelengths suggests that the coastal area and the bottom nepheloid layer during the largest storm are primarily composed of coarse particles, probably macroflocs, and that the size of particles decreases further offshore. A similar trend, albeit less contrasted, is observed after the flooding. This work provided a unique synoptic view across the entire shelf of the impact of a typical Mediterranean storm on bottom sediment erosion and particulate fluxes. Repeated glider transects across the south-western part of the Gulf of Lions shelf permitted for the first time to measure continuously the thermo-haline structures, the suspended particles concentrations and size, the current speed, and to estimate the particulate transport before, during and after typical Mediterranean storm events. Glider data complement and compare well with concomitant high frequency time series at fixed stations along the coast and in a downstream submarine canyon.

Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dearing, John A.; Bullock, Seth; Costanza, Robert; Dawson, Terry P.; Edwards, Mary E.; Poppy, Guy M.; Smith, Graham M.

2012-04-01

The `Perfect Storm' metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.

Thyroid storm precipitated by duodenal ulcer perforation.

PubMed

Natsuda, Shoko; Nakashima, Yomi; Horie, Ichiro; Ando, Takao; Kawakami, Atsushi

2015-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male) complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

Evaluation of thunderstorm indices from ECMWF analyses, lightning data and severe storm reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaltenböck, Rudolf; Diendorfer, Gerhard; Dotzek, Nikolai

This study describes the environmental atmospheric characteristics in the vicinity of different types of severe convective storms in Europe during the warm seasons in 2006 and 2007. 3406 severe weather events from the European Severe Weather Database ESWD were investigated to get information about different types of severe local storms, such as significant or weak tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and heavy precipitation. These data were combined with EUCLID (European Cooperation for Lightning Detection) lightning data to distinguish and classify thunderstorm activity on a European scale into seven categories: none, weak and 5 types of severe thunderstorms. Sounding parameters in close proximity to reported events were derived from daily high-resolution T799 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) analyses. We found from the sounding-derived parameters in Europe: 1) Instability indices and CAPE have considerable skill to predict the occurrence of thunderstorms and the probability of severe events. 2) Low level moisture can be used as a predictor to distinguish between significant tornadoes or non-severe convection. 3) Most of the events associated with wind gusts during strong synoptic flow situations reveal the downward transport of momentum as a very important factor. 4) While deep-layer shear discriminates well between severe and non-severe events, the storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km and especially in the 0-3 km layer adjacent to the ground has more skill in distinguishing between environments favouring significant tornadoes and wind gusts versus other severe events. Additionally, composite parameters that combine measurements of buoyancy, vertical shear and low level moisture have been tested to discriminate between severe events.

A Climatology of Nocturnal-Convection Initiation Over the Central Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reif, D. W.; Bluestein, H. B.

2015-12-01

A nocturnal maximum in rainfall and thunderstorm activity over the central Great Plains is widely documented, but the mechanisms for understanding the development of thunderstorms over the region at night are still not well understood. Elevated convection, defined by Colman (1990) as storms formed through ascent above frontal surfaces, is one explanation, but our study shows that many thunderstorms can initiate at night without the presence of an elevated frontal inversion or nearby surface boundary. We address the following questions: Of all the events documented, what percentage fall under this definition of elevated convection, and what percentage fall outside of that definition? How do characteristics differ among the events that fall under that definition and the events that fall outside that definition? This study documents convection initiation (CI) events occurring at night over the central Great Plains from 1996 through 2014 during the months of April through July. Storm characteristics such as storm type (defined as linear, areal, or single cell), storm motion, initiation time and location, and others were documented. Once all of the cases were documented, surface data were examined to locate any nearby surface boundaries. The event's location relative to these boundaries (if they existed) was documented. Three main modes of CI were identified: formation on a surface boundary, formation on the cold side of a surface boundary, and formation without the presence of a surface boundary. A climatology of these events will be presented. There are many differences among the different modes of CI at night. One result is that there appears to be two main peaks of CI time at night: one early at night and one later at night. The later peak is likely due to the events that form in the absence of a nearby surface boundary.

Characteristic Paths of Extratropical Cyclones that Cause High Wind Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, J. F.; Rieder, H. E.; Lee, D.; Kushnir, Y.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the association between wintertime high wind events (HWEs) in the northeast United States US and extratropical cyclones. Sustained wind maxima in the Daily Summary Data from the National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Surface Database are analyzed for 1979-2012. For each station, a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the upper tail of the daily maximum wind speed data, and probabilistic return levels at intervals of 1, 3 and 5-years are derived from the GPD fit. At each interval, wind events meeting the return level criteria are termed HWEs. The HWEs occurring on the same day are grouped into multi-station events allowing the association with extratropical cyclones, which are tracked in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-Interim reanalysis. Using hierarchical clustering analysis, this study finds that the HWEs are most often associated with cyclones travelling from southwest to northeast, usually originating west of the Appalachian Mountains. The results show that a storm approaching from the southwest is four times more likely to cause strong surface winds than a Nor'easter. A series of sensitivity analyses confirms the robustness of this result. Next, the relationship between the strength of the wind events and the corresponding storm minimum sea level pressure is analyzed. No robust relationship between these quantities is found for strong wind events. Nevertheless, subsequent analysis shows that a relationship between deeper storms and stronger winds emerges if the analysis is extended to the entire set of wintertime storms.

New Insights into the Estimation of Extreme Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffenach, Alexis; Winter, Hugo; Lavraud, Benoit; Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

Space weather events such as intense geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the near-Earth environment that may lead to serious impacts on our modern society. As such, it is of great importance to estimate their probability, and in particular that of extreme events. One approach largely used in statistical sciences for extreme events probability estimates is Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Using this rigorous statistical framework, estimations of the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms are performed here based on the most relevant global parameters related to geomagnetic storms, such as ground parameters (e.g. geomagnetic Dst and aa indexes), and space parameters related to the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) (velocity, southward magnetic field component, electric field). Using our fitted model, we estimate the annual probability of a Carrington-type event (Dst = -850nT) to be on the order of 10-3, with a lower limit of the uncertainties on the return period of ˜500 years. Our estimate is significantly higher than that of most past studies, which typically had a return period of a few 100 years at maximum. Thus precautions are required when extrapolating intense values. Currently, the complexity of the processes and the length of available data inevitably leads to significant uncertainties in return period estimates for the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms. However, our application of extreme value models for extrapolating into the tail of the distribution provides a mathematically justified framework for the estimation of extreme return periods, thereby enabling the determination of more accurate estimates and reduced associated uncertainties.

Environmental Education: Non-point Source Pollution

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This activity is designed to demonstrate to students what an average storm drain collects during a rainfall event and how the water from storm drains can impact the water quality and aquatic environments of local streams, rivers, and bays.

Identification of Critical Vulnerable Areas During a Typhoon Haiyan Event in the Metro Manila Area Using Storm Surge Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones, J. B. L. T.; Puno, J. V.; Lapidez, J. P. B.; Muldong, T. M. M.; Ramos, M. M.; Caro, C. V.; Ladiero, C.; Bahala, M. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

2014-12-01

Sudden rises in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to an approaching storm are known as storm surges. The development of an early warning system for storm surges is imperative, due to the high threat level of these events; Typhoon Haiyan in 08 November 2013 generated storm surges that caused casualties of over 6,000. Under the Department of Science and Technology, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (DOST - Project NOAH) was tasked to generate storm surge hazard maps for all the coastal areas in the Philippines. The objective of this paper is to create guidelines on how to utilize the storm surge hazard map as a tool for planning and disaster mitigation. This study uses the case of the hypothetical situation in which a tropical storm with an intensity similar to Typhoon Haiyan hits Metro Manila. This site was chosen for various reasons, among them the economic, political, and cultural importance of Metro Manila as the location of the capital of the Philippines and the coastal bay length of the area. The concentration of residential areas and other establishments were also taken into account. Using the Japan Meteorology Association (JMA) Storm Surge Model, FLO-2D flood modelling software and the application of other GIS technology, the impact of Haiyan-strength typhoon passing through Manila was analysed. We were able to identify the population affected, number of affected critical facilities under each storm surge hazard level, and possible evacuation sites. The results of the study can be used as the basis of policies involving disaster response and mitigation by city authorities. The methods used by the study can be used as a replicable framework for the analysis of other sites in the Philippines.

Defining Coastal Storm and Quantifying Storms Applying Coastal Storm Impulse Parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoudpour, Nader

2014-05-01

What defines a storm condition and what would initiate a "storm" has not been uniquely defined among scientists and engineers. Parameters that have been used to define a storm condition can be mentioned as wind speed, beach erosion and storm hydrodynamics parameters such as wave height and water levels. Some of the parameters are storm consequential such as beach erosion and some are not directly related to the storm hydrodynamics such as wind speed. For the purpose of the presentation, the different storm conditions based on wave height, water levels, wind speed and beach erosion will be discussed and assessed. However, it sounds more scientifically to have the storm definition based on the hydrodynamic parameters such as wave height, water level and storm duration. Once the storm condition is defined and storm has initiated, the severity of the storm would be a question to forecast and evaluate the hazard and analyze the risk in order to determine the appropriate responses. The correlation of storm damages to the meteorological and hydrodynamics parameters can be defined as a storm scale, storm index or storm parameter and it is needed to simplify the complexity of variation involved developing the scale for risk analysis and response management. A newly introduced Coastal Storm Impulse (COSI) parameter quantifies storms into one number for a specific location and storm event. The COSI parameter is based on the conservation of linear, horizontal momentum to combine storm surge, wave dynamics, and currents over the storm duration. The COSI parameter applies the principle of conservation of momentum to physically combine the hydrodynamic variables per unit width of shoreline. This total momentum is then integrated over the duration of the storm to determine the storm's impulse to the coast. The COSI parameter employs the mean, time-averaged nonlinear (Fourier) wave momentum flux, over the wave period added to the horizontal storm surge momentum above the Mean High Water (MHW) integrated over the storm duration. The COSI parameter methodology has been applied to a 10-year data set from 1994 to 2003 at US Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility (FRF) located on the Atlantic Ocean in Duck, North Carolina. The storm duration was taken as the length of time (hours) that the spectral significant wave heights were equal or greater than 1.6 meters for at least a 12 hour, continuous period. Wave heights were measured in 8 meters water depth and water levels measured at the NOAA/NOS tide gauge at the end of the FRF pier. The 10-year data set were analyzed applying the aforementioned storm criteria and produced 148 coastal events including Hurricanes and Northeasters. The results of this analysis and application of the COSI parameter to determine "Extra Ordinary" storms in Federal Projects for the Gulf of Mexico, 2012 hurricane season will be discussed at the time of presentation.

NOAA Environmental Satellite Measurements of Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denig, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Redmon, R. J.

2015-12-01

For over 40 years the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has continuously monitored the near-earth space environment in support of space weather operations. Data from this period have covered a wide range of geophysical conditions including periods of extreme space weather such as the great geomagnetic March 1989, the 2003 Halloween storm and the more recent St Patrick's Day storm of 2015. While not specifically addressed here, these storms have stressed our technology infrastructure in unexpected and surprising ways. Space weather data from NOAA geostationary (GOES) and polar (POES) satellites along with supporting data from the Air Force are presented to compare and contrast the space environmental conditions measured during extreme events.

An assessment of the potential toxicity of runoff from an urban roadscape during rain events.

PubMed

Waara, Sylvia; Färm, Carina

2008-05-01

The potential negative impact of urban storm water on aquatic freshwater ecosystems has been demonstrated in various studies with different types of biological methods. There are a number of factors that influence the amount and bioavailability of contaminants in storm water even if it is derived from an area with a fairly homogenous land use such as a roadscape where a variation in toxicity during rain events might be expected. There are only a few previous investigations on the toxicity of highway runoff and they have not explored these issues extensively. The main objective of this study is therefore to characterize the potential toxicity of highway runoff during several rain events before it enters a detention pond in Västerås, Sweden, using laboratory bioassays with test organisms representing various functional groups in an aquatic ecosystem. The results are to be used for developing a monitoring program, including biological methods. The storm water was sampled before the entrance to a detention pond, which receives run-off from a highway with approximately 20,000 vehicles a day. The drainage area, including the roadscape and vegetated areas, is 4.3 ha in size. Samples for toxicity tests were taken with an automatic sampler or manually during storm events. In total, the potential toxicity of 65 samples representing 15 different storm events was determined. The toxicity was assessed with 4 different test organisms; Vibrio fischeri using the Microtox comparison test, Daphnia magna using Daphtoxkit-F agna, Thamnocephalus platyurus using the ThamnotoxkitF and Lemna minor, duckweed using SS 028313. Of the 65 samples, 58 samples were tested with DaphniatoxkitF agna, 57 samples with the Microtox comparison test, 48 samples with ThamnotoxkitF and 20 samples with Lemna minor, duckweed. None of the storm water samples were toxic. No toxicity was detected with the Lemna minor test, but in 5 of the 23 samples tested in comparison to the control a growth stimulation of 22-46% was observed. This is in accordance with the chemical analysis of the storm water, which indicated rather large concentrations of tot-N and tot-P. In addition to the growth stimulation, morphological changes were observed in all the 5 samples from the winter event that was sampled. The lack of toxicity observed in our study might be due to a lower traffic intensity (20,000 vehicles/day) at the site and the trapping of pollutants in the vegetated areas of the roadscape, resulting in much smaller loads of pollutants in the storm water than in some previous studies. Ecotoxicological evaluations of storm water including run off from rain events from urban roadscape studies clearly reveal that toxicity may or may not be detected depending upon site, storm condition and the test organism chosen. However, storm water might not be as polluted as previously reported nor may the first flush be such a widespread phenomenon as we originally expected. In this study, there was also a good correlation between pollutant load measured and the lack of toxicity. The test organisms chosen in this study are commonly used in effluent control programs in Sweden and other countries, which makes it possible to compare the results with those from other effluents. In this study, only acute toxicity tests were used and further studies using chronic toxicity tests, assays for genotoxic compounds or in situ bioassays might reveal biological effects at this site. Furthermore, most of the samples were taken in spring, summer or fall and it is possible that winter conditions might alter the constituents in the storm water and, thus, the toxicity of the samples. Considering the complex nature of run off from urban roadscapes, it will be virtually impossible to evaluate properly the potential hazard of particular storm water and the efficiency of a particular treatment strategy from only physical and chemical characterizations of the effluent. Therefore, despite the lack of toxicity detected in this study, it is recommended that toxicity tests or other biological methods should be included in evaluations of the effects of runoff from roadscapes.

Characterization of Atmospheric Infrasound for Improved Weather Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Threatt, Arnesha; Elbing, Brian

2016-11-01

Collaboration Leading Operational UAS Development for Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (CLOUD MAP) is a multi-university collaboration focused on development and implementation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and integration with sensors for atmospheric measurements. A primary objective for this project is to create and demonstrate UAS capabilities needed to support UAS operating in extreme conditions, such as a tornado producing storm system. These storm systems emit infrasound (acoustic signals below human hearing, <20 Hz) up to 2 hours before tornadogenesis. Due to an acoustic ceiling and weak atmospheric absorption, infrasound can be detected from distances in excess of 300 miles. Thus infrasound could be used for long-range, passive monitoring and detection of tornadogenesis as well as directing UAS resources to high-decision-value-information. To achieve this the infrasonic signals with and without severe storms must be understood. This presentation will report findings from the first CLOUD MAP field demonstration, which acquired infrasonic signals while simultaneously sampling the atmosphere with UAS. Infrasonic spectra will be shown from a typical calm day, a continuous source (pulsed gas-combustion torch), singular events, and UAS flights as well as localization results from a controlled source and multiple microphones. This work was supported by NSF Grant 1539070: CLOUD MAP - Collaboration Leading Operational UAS Development for Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics.

Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

2012-12-01

In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iavorivska, Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L-1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m-2 h-1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Evaluation of Soil Moisture, Storm Characteristics, and Their Influence on Storm Runoff and Water Yield at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, J. W.; Aulenbach, B. T.

2015-12-01

Understanding the factors that control runoff processes is important for many aspects of water supply and ecosystem protection, especially during climatic extremes that result in flooding or droughts; potentially impacting human safety. Furthermore, having knowledge of the conditions during which runoff occurs contributes to the conceptual understanding of the hydrologic cycle and may improve parameterization of hydrologic models. We evaluated soil moisture, storm characteristics, and the subsequent runoff and water yield for 297 storms over an eight-year period at Panola Mountain Research Watershed to better understand runoff generation processes. Panola Mountain Research Watershed is a small (41-hectare), relatively undisturbed forested watershed near Atlanta, GA, U.S.A. Strong relations were observed between total precipitation for a given storm, deep (70 cm below surface) antecedent soil moisture content and the volume of runoff. However, the strength of the relations varied based on occurrence during the growing (April - September; 172 storms) or dormant (October - March; 125 storms) period. In general, soil moisture responded at a minimum of 15 cm depth for all but 18 events. In addition, we found storms that initiated a response of deep soil moisture (70 cm below surface) to be an important factor relating to storm runoff and water yield. Seventy percent of the dormant period storms generated a response at 70 cm depth compared to 58% of growing period storms. A stronger relation between soil moisture and water yield was noted during the dormant period and indicated that all storms that produced a water yield >12% occurred when deep pre-event soil moisture was >20%. Similar patterns were also present during the growing season with occasional intense thunderstorms also generating higher water yields even in the absence of high soil moisture. The importance of deep soil moisture likely reflects the overall status of watershed storage conditions.

Release of Mercury Mine Tailings from Mine Impacted Watersheds by Extreme Events Resulting from Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rytuba, J. J.

2015-12-01

An increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events resulting from climate change is expected to result in extreme precipitation events on both regional and local scales. Extreme precipitation events have the potential to mobilize large volumes of mercury (Hg) mine tailings in watersheds where tailings reside in the floodplain downstream from historic Hg mines. The California Hg mineral belt produced one third of the worlds Hg from over 100 mines from the 1850's to 1972. In the absence of environmental regulations, tailings were disposed of into streams adjacent to the mines in order to have them transported from the mine site during storm events. Thus most of the tailings no longer reside at the mine site. Addition of tailings to the streams resulted in stream aggradation, increased over-bank flow, and deposition of tailings in the floodplain for up to 25 kms downstream from the mines. After cessation of mining, the decrease in tailings entering the streams resulted in degradation, incision of the streams into the floodplain, and inability of the streams to access the floodplain. Thus Hg tailings have remained stored in the floodplain since cessation of mining. Hg phases in these tailings consist of cinnabar, metacinnabar and montroydite based on EXAFS analysis. Size analysis indicates that Hg phases are fine grained, less than 1 um. The last regional scale extreme precipitation events to effect the entire area of the California Hg mineral belt were the ARkStorm events of 1861-1862 that occurred prior to large scale Hg mining. Extreme regional ARkStorm precipitation events as well as local summer storms, such as the July 2006 flood in the Clear Creek Hg mining district, are expected to increase in frequency and have the potential to remobilize the large volume of tailings stored in floodplain deposits. Although Hg mine remediation has decreased Hg release from mine sites in a period of benign climate, no remediation efforts have addressed the large source of Hg residing in floodplain deposits. This Hg source in a period of climate change poses a significant environmental risk to aquatic systems downstream from Hg mine-impacted watersheds. An extreme ARkStorm event is estimated to potentially remobilize an amount of Hg equivalent to that released in the past during the peak period of unregulated Hg mining in California.

Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

2017-04-01

Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is configured to take advantage of far-field information on developing tidal surges provided by tide gauges in NW Scotland (the 'external surge'), supported by observations of wind and atmospheric pressure and the predicted astronomical tide at Immingham. Missing data can cause problems with ANN models and a novel aspect of our implementation is the use of multiple redundant inputs (nearby tide gauges that experience a high degree of surge coherence) to synthesise a single external surge input. A similar approach is taken with meteorological forcings, creating an ANN that is resilient against data drop-outs within its input vector. The ANN generates 6 to 24 hour surge forecasts at Immingham with accuracy better than the present UK Storm Tide Warning Service. These can be used to cross-check national forecasts, generate more accurate estimates of likely flood depths, timings and durations and trigger planned responses to severe forecasts. Crucially, this capability can be 'owned' by the port operator, which encourages the development of a shared understanding of storm surge hazards and the challenges of port resilience planning between scientist and stakeholder.

Dissolved Organic Matter Compositional Change and Biolability During Two Storm Runoff Events in a Small Agricultural Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckard, Robert S.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bachand, Philip A. M.; Bachand, Sandra M.; Spencer, Robert G. M.; Hernes, Peter J.

2017-10-01

Agricultural watersheds are globally pervasive, supporting fundamentally different organic matter source, composition, and concentration profiles in comparison to natural systems. Similar to natural systems, agricultural storm runoff exports large amounts of organic carbon from agricultural land into waterways. But intense management of upper soil layers, waterway channelization, wetland and riparian habitat removal, and postharvest vegetation removal promise to uniquely drive organic matter release to waterways. During a winter first flush and a subsequent storm event, this study investigated the influence of a small agricultural watershed on dissolved organic matter (DOM) source, composition, and biolability. Storm water discharge released strongly terrestrial yet biolabile (23 to 32%) dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Following a 21 day bioassay, a parallel factor analysis identified an 80% reduction in a protein-like (phenylpropyl) component (C2) that was previously correlated to lignin phenol concentration, and a 10% reduction in a humic-like, terrestrially sourced component (C4). Storm-driven releases tripled DOC concentration (from 2.8 to 8.7 mg L-1) during the first flush event in comparison to base flow and were terrestrially sourced, with an eightfold increase in vascular plant derived lignin phenols (23.0 to 185 μg L-1). As inferred from system hydrology, lignin composition, and nitrate as a groundwater tracer, an initial pulse of dilute water from the upstream watershed caused a counterclockwise DOC hysteresis loop. DOC concentrations peaked after 3.5 days, with the delay between peak discharge and peak DOC attributed to storm water hydrology and a period of initial water repellency of agricultural soils, which delayed DOM leaching.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Severe flooding along the eastern Adriatic coast: the case of 1 December 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Pasarić, Miroslava; Orlić, Mirko

2015-06-01

This paper addresses an extraordinary storm surge in the Northern Adriatic that was more pronounced on the eastern than on the western shore. On 1 December 2008, Adriatic monitoring stations detected exceptionally high sea levels; the oldest Croatian tide gauge station recorded the highest water level in its operating history at the time. Apart from the Northern Adriatic, large portion of the Dalmatian Coast was also exposed to high water levels, while Venice experienced a less-dramatic event. This marine storm was different from the capital storm of 4 November 1966 during which the surge had the highest impact ahead of Venice and along the north-western coastline. The 2008 event is studied here in detail, and the mechanisms that resulted in the different flooding of the two shores are identified. The study is based on hourly sea level, air pressure and wind data measured along both basin sides together with ECMWF reanalysis fields. Four components of sea-level evolution are identified: the storm surge, tide, Adriatic seiche and, low-frequency variability. The 2008 event was the outcome of a fine interplay between the first three components, which were all superimposed on the raised sea level due to low-frequency variability. The marine storm differed from the 1966 storm in the atmospheric forcing and relative timing of all contributing processes. The 2008 flooding of the eastern coast was mainly due to the Sirocco-wind shear, whereas the 1966 flooding of the western coast was due to the combined effect of almost uniform Sirocco and bottom slope.

Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano; Zeng, Hongcheng; Raupp, Carlos F. M.; Marra, Daniel M.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Higuchi, Niro

2010-08-01

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent α = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system.

A Geospatial Database that Supports Derivation of Climatological Features of Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.

2007-12-01

The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provides user access to archives of several datasets critical to the detection and evaluation of severe weather. These datasets include archives of: · NEXRAD Level-III point features describing general storm structure, hail, mesocyclone and tornado signatures · National Weather Service Storm Events Database · National Weather Service Local Storm Reports collected from storm spotters · National Weather Service Warnings · Lightning strikes from Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) SWDI archives all of these datasets in a spatial database that allows for convenient searching and subsetting. These data are accessible via the NCDC web site, Web Feature Services (WFS) or automated web services. The results of interactive web page queries may be saved in a variety of formats, including plain text, XML, Google Earth's KMZ, standards-based NetCDF and Shapefile. NCDC's Storm Risk Assessment Project (SRAP) uses data from the SWDI database to derive gridded climatology products that show the spatial distributions of the frequency of various events. SRAP also can relate SWDI events to other spatial data such as roads, population, watersheds, and other geographic, sociological, or economic data to derive products that are useful in municipal planning, emergency management, the insurance industry, and other areas where there is a need to quantify and qualify how severe weather patterns affect people and property.

Eyewitness Reports of the Great Auroral Storm of 1859

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, James L.; Boardsen, Scott; Odenwald, Sten; Humble, John; Pazamickas, Katherine A.

2005-01-01

The great geomagnetic storm of 1859 is really composed of two closely spaced massive worldwide auroral events. The first event began on August 28th and the second began on September 2nd. It is the storm on September 2nd that results from the Carrington-Hodgson white light flare that occurred on the sun September l&. In addition to published scientific measurements; newspapers, ship logs and other records of that era provide an untapped wealth of first hand observations giving time and location along with reports of the auroral forms and colors. At its height, the aurora was described as a blood or deep crimson red that was so bright that one "could read a newspaper by." Several important aspects of this great geomagnetic storm are simply phenomenal. Auroral forms of all types and colors were observed to latitudes of 25deg and lower. A significant portion of the world's 125,000 miles of telegraph lines were also adversely affected. Many of - which were unusable for 8 hours or more and had a small but notable economic impact. T h s paper presents only a select few available first hand accounts of the Great Auroral Event of 1859 in an attempt to give the modern reader a sense of how this spectacular display was received by the public from many places around the globe and present some other important historical aspects of the storm.

Cross-scale observations of the 2015 St. Patrick's day storm: THEMIS, Van Allen Probes, and TWINS

DOE PAGES

Goldstein, J.; Angelopoulos, V.; De Pascuale, S.; ...

2016-12-10

In this paper, we present cross-scale magnetospheric observations of the 17 March 2015 (St. Patrick's Day) storm, by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS), Van Allen Probes (Radiation Belt Storm Probes), and Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS), plus upstream ACE/Wind solar wind data. THEMIS crossed the bow shock or magnetopause 22 times and observed the magnetospheric compression that initiated the storm. Empirical models reproduce these boundary locations within 0.7 R E. Van Allen Probes crossed the plasmapause 13 times; test particle simulations reproduce these encounters within 0.5 R E. Before the storm, Van Allen Probesmore » measured quiet double-nose proton spectra in the region of corotating cold plasma. About 15 min after a 0605 UT dayside southward turning, Van Allen Probes captured the onset of inner magnetospheric convection, as a density decrease at the moving corotation-convection boundary (CCB) and a steep increase in ring current (RC) proton flux. During the first several hours of the storm, Van Allen Probes measured highly dynamic ion signatures (numerous injections and multiple spectral peaks). Sustained convection after ~1200 UT initiated a major buildup of the midnight-sector ring current (measured by RBSP A), with much weaker duskside fluxes (measured by RBSP B, THEMIS a and THEMIS d). A close conjunction of THEMIS d, RBSP A, and TWINS 1 at 1631 UT shows good three-way agreement in the shapes of two-peak spectra from the center of the partial RC. A midstorm injection, observed by Van Allen Probes and TWINS at 1740 UT, brought in fresh ions with lower average energies (leading to globally less energetic spectra in precipitating ions) but increased the total pressure. Finally, the cross-scale measurements of 17 March 2015 contain significant spatial, spectral, and temporal structure.« less

Doppler-radar observation of the evolution of downdrafts in convective clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motallebi, N.

1982-01-01

A detailed analysis of the 20 July 1977 thunderstorm complex which formed and evolve over the South Park region in Central Colorado is presented. The storm was extensively analyzed using multiple Doppler radar and surface mesonet data, developed within an environment having very weak wind shear. The storm owed its intensification to the strength of the downdraft, which was nearly coincident with the region where the cloud had grown. The noteworthy features of this storm were its motion to the right of the cloud-level winds, its multicellular nature and discrete propagation, its north-south orientation, and its relatively large storm size and high reflectivity factor (55 dBZ). This scenario accounts for the observed mesoscale and cloud-scale event. A line of convergence was generated at the interface between the easterly upslope winds and westerly winds. During stage II, the convergence line subsequently propagated down the slopes of the Mosquito Range, and was the main forcing mechanism for the development of updraft on the west flank of the storm. The formation of downdraft on the eastern side of updraft blacked surface inflow, and created a detectable gust front. As the original downdraft intensified, the accumulation of evaporatively-chilled air caused the intensification of the mesohigh, which likely destroyed the earlier convergence line and created a stronger convergence line to the east, which forced up-lifting of the moist, westerly inflow and caused the formation of updraft to the east. An organized downdraft circulation, apparently maintained by precipitation drag and evaporational cooling, was responsible in sustaining a well-defined gust front. The storm attained its highest intensity as a consequence of merging with a neighboring cloud. The interaction of downdrafts or gust fronts from two intense cells appeared to be the primary mechanism of this merging process as suggested by Simpson et al. (1980). The merging process coincided with more rain than occurred in unmerged echoes.

Cross-scale observations of the 2015 St. Patrick's day storm: THEMIS, Van Allen Probes, and TWINS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, J.; Angelopoulos, V.; De Pascuale, S.

In this paper, we present cross-scale magnetospheric observations of the 17 March 2015 (St. Patrick's Day) storm, by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS), Van Allen Probes (Radiation Belt Storm Probes), and Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS), plus upstream ACE/Wind solar wind data. THEMIS crossed the bow shock or magnetopause 22 times and observed the magnetospheric compression that initiated the storm. Empirical models reproduce these boundary locations within 0.7 R E. Van Allen Probes crossed the plasmapause 13 times; test particle simulations reproduce these encounters within 0.5 R E. Before the storm, Van Allen Probesmore » measured quiet double-nose proton spectra in the region of corotating cold plasma. About 15 min after a 0605 UT dayside southward turning, Van Allen Probes captured the onset of inner magnetospheric convection, as a density decrease at the moving corotation-convection boundary (CCB) and a steep increase in ring current (RC) proton flux. During the first several hours of the storm, Van Allen Probes measured highly dynamic ion signatures (numerous injections and multiple spectral peaks). Sustained convection after ~1200 UT initiated a major buildup of the midnight-sector ring current (measured by RBSP A), with much weaker duskside fluxes (measured by RBSP B, THEMIS a and THEMIS d). A close conjunction of THEMIS d, RBSP A, and TWINS 1 at 1631 UT shows good three-way agreement in the shapes of two-peak spectra from the center of the partial RC. A midstorm injection, observed by Van Allen Probes and TWINS at 1740 UT, brought in fresh ions with lower average energies (leading to globally less energetic spectra in precipitating ions) but increased the total pressure. Finally, the cross-scale measurements of 17 March 2015 contain significant spatial, spectral, and temporal structure.« less

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for modeling Hurricane storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Clint; Kubatko, Ethan J.; Westerink, Joannes J.; Trahan, Corey; Mirabito, Christopher; Michoski, Craig; Panda, Nishant

2011-09-01

Storm surge due to hurricanes and tropical storms can result in significant loss of life, property damage, and long-term damage to coastal ecosystems and landscapes. Computer modeling of storm surge can be used for two primary purposes: forecasting of surge as storms approach land for emergency planning and evacuation of coastal populations, and hindcasting of storms for determining risk, development of mitigation strategies, coastal restoration and sustainability. Storm surge is modeled using the shallow water equations, coupled with wind forcing and in some events, models of wave energy. In this paper, we will describe a depth-averaged (2D) model of circulation in spherical coordinates. Tides, riverine forcing, atmospheric pressure, bottom friction, the Coriolis effect and wind stress are all important for characterizing the inundation due to surge. The problem is inherently multi-scale, both in space and time. To model these problems accurately requires significant investments in acquiring high-fidelity input (bathymetry, bottom friction characteristics, land cover data, river flow rates, levees, raised roads and railways, etc.), accurate discretization of the computational domain using unstructured finite element meshes, and numerical methods capable of capturing highly advective flows, wetting and drying, and multi-scale features of the solution. The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method appears to allow for many of the features necessary to accurately capture storm surge physics. The DG method was developed for modeling shocks and advection-dominated flows on unstructured finite element meshes. It easily allows for adaptivity in both mesh ( h) and polynomial order ( p) for capturing multi-scale spatial events. Mass conservative wetting and drying algorithms can be formulated within the DG method. In this paper, we will describe the application of the DG method to hurricane storm surge. We discuss the general formulation, and new features which have been added to the model to better capture surge in complex coastal environments. These features include modifications to the method to handle spherical coordinates and maintain still flows, improvements in the stability post-processing (i.e. slope-limiting), and the modeling of internal barriers for capturing overtopping of levees and other structures. We will focus on applications of the model to recent events in the Gulf of Mexico, including Hurricane Ike.

Generation of traveling atmospheric disturbances during pulsating geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, Larry; Schunk, Robert

Traveling Atmospheric Disturbances (TADs) are effective in transporting momentum and en-ergy deposited at high latitudes to the mid and low latitude regions of the thermosphere. They also act to transport momentum and energy from the lower thermosphere into the upper ther-mosphere. Previously, model studies have been conducted to determine the characteristics of isolated, single-pulse TADs, but the generation of multiple TADs excited during pulsating storms have not been considered before. Here, a high-resolution global thermosphere-ionosphere model was used to study the basic characteristic of multiple TADs excited during pulsating storms, including idealized weak and strong pulsating storms, and an approximation of the May 4, 1998 pulsating storm. For all three pulsating storm simulations, multiple TADs were excited that propagated away form the auroral oval both toward the poles and toward the equator at all longitudes, with the maximum amplitudes between midnight and dawn. The TAD amplitudes were a maximum near the poles, diminished towards the equator and were larger on the nightside than on the dayside. The TADs propagated at a slight upward angle to the horizontal, with the result that the lower boundary of the TADs increased with decreas-ing latitude. The TADs crossed the equator and propagated to mid-latitudes in the opposite hemisphere, where wave interference occurred for the strong pulsating storm cases. The TAD wavelengths vary from 2500-3000 km and the phase speeds from 800-1000 m/s. The maximum TAD perturbations are 20% for the mass density 14% for the neutral temperature and 100 m/s for the winds.

Generation of traveling atmospheric disturbances during pulsating geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, L. C.; Schunk, R. W.

2010-08-01

Traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) are effective in transporting momentum and energy deposited at high latitudes to the midlatitude and low-latitude regions of the thermosphere. They also act to transport momentum and energy from the lower thermosphere into the upper thermosphere. Previously, model studies have been conducted to determine the characteristics of isolated, single-pulse TADs, but the generation of multiple TADs excited during pulsating storms have not been considered before. Here a high-resolution global thermosphere-ionosphere model was used to study the basic characteristics of multiple TADs excited during pulsating storms, including idealized weak and strong pulsating storms, and an approximation of the 4 May 1998 pulsating storm. For all three pulsating storm simulations, multiple TADs that propagated away from the auroral oval toward both the poles and the equator at all longitudes, with the maximum amplitudes between midnight and dawn, were excited. The TAD amplitudes were at maximum near the poles and diminished toward the equator and were larger on the nightside than on the dayside. The TADs propagated at a slightly upward angle to the horizontal, with the result that the lower boundary of the TADs increased with decreasing latitude. The TADs crossed the equator and propagated to midlatitudes in the opposite hemisphere, where wave interference occurred for the strong pulsating storm cases. The TAD wavelengths vary from 2500 to 3000 km and the phase speeds vary from 800 to 1000 m/s. The maximum TAD perturbations are 20% for the mass density, 14% for the neutral temperature, and 100 m/s for the winds.

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

North Atlantic storm driving of extreme wave heights in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R. J.; Gray, S. L.; Jones, O. P.

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North Sea is assessed using a long-period wave data set and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to intense extratropical cyclone winds from either the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events). The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearward round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea to aid wave growth. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical cyclones that develop in the left upper tropospheric jet exit region. Ensemble sensitivity analysis can provide early warning of extreme wave events by demonstrating a relationship between wave height and high pressure to the west of the British Isles for northerly-wind events 48 h prior. Southerly-wind extreme events demonstrate sensitivity to low pressure to the west of the British Isles 36 h prior.

Direct observations of atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interactions during Arctic winter and spring storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Itkin, P.; Granskog, M. A.; Assmy, P.; Cohen, L.; Duarte, P.; Doble, M. J.; Fransson, A.; Fer, I.; Fernandez Mendez, M.; Frey, M. M.; Gerland, S.; Haapala, J. J.; Hudson, S. R.; Liston, G. E.; Merkouriadi, I.; Meyer, A.; Muilwijk, M.; Peterson, A.; Provost, C.; Randelhoff, A.; Rösel, A.; Spreen, G.; Steen, H.; Smedsrud, L. H.; Sundfjord, A.

2017-12-01

To study the thinner and younger sea ice that now dominates the Arctic the Norwegian Young Sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) was launched in the ice-covered region north of Svalbard, from January to June 2015. During this time, eight local and remote storms affected the region and rare direct observations of the atmosphere, snow, ice and ocean were conducted. Six of these winter storms passed directly over the expedition and resulted in air temperatures rising from below -30oC to near 0oC, followed by abrupt cooling. Substantial snowfall prior to the campaign had already formed a snow pack of approximately 50 cm, to which the February storms contributed an additional 6 cm. The deep snow layer effectively isolated the ice cover and prevented bottom ice growth resulting in low brine fluxes. Peak wind speeds during winter storms exceeded 20 m/s, causing strong snow re-distribution, release of sea salt aerosol and sea ice deformation. The heavy snow load caused widespread negative freeboard; during sea ice deformation events, level ice floes were flooded by sea water, and at least 6-10 cm snow-ice layer was formed. Elevated deformation rates during the most powerful winter storms damaged the ice cover permanently such that the response to wind forcing increased by 60 %. As a result of a remote storm in April deformation processes opened about 4 % of the total area into leads with open water, while a similar amount of ice was deformed into pressure ridges. The strong winds also enhanced ocean mixing and increased ocean heat fluxes three-fold in the pycnocline from 4 to 12 W/m2. Ocean heat fluxes were extremely large (over 300 W/m2) during storms in regions where the warm Atlantic inflow is located close to surface over shallow topography. This resulted in very large (5-25 cm/day) bottom ice melt and in cases flooding due to heavy snow load. Storm events increased the carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and ocean but also affected the pCO2 in surface waters through mixing. Finally, the combination of a higher lead fraction and thinner ice cover, driven in part by storms, helped facilitate an early under-ice phytoplankton bloom in May, far inside the ice pack. In summary the storms entail significant effects on the ice pack that may last much longer than the short-lived storm events.

Cost-efficient and storm surge-sensitive bridge design for coastal Maine.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Climatic variation felt through changing weather patterns is having increasingly acute effects on Maines : transportation infrastructure. Acute risk occurs as a result of events, such as storms and flooding, while chronic risk : surrounds longer r...

Typhoon Sinlaku

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-16

... before the storm weakened as it moved inland. While the nature and formation of individual storm events is relatively well understood, ... clouds on climate is difficult to assess due to the variable nature of cloud cover at various altitudes. MISR's data products are designed ...

HDSC/OWP

Science.gov Websites

Maximum Precipitation Documents Miscellaneous Publications Storm Analysis Record Precipitation Contact Us ; - Probability analysis for selected historical storm events learn more > - Record point precipitation for the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction (OWP) 1325 East

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzman, J. N.; Groffman, P.

2017-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the same forest, when N transformations appeared to change more in response to disturbance (i.e. there seemed to be a decrease in plant uptake of inorganic N in response to canopy loss).

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiley, E.; King, C.; Richardson, A. D.; Landhäusser, S.

2016-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the same forest, when N transformations appeared to change more in response to disturbance (i.e. there seemed to be a decrease in plant uptake of inorganic N in response to canopy loss).

Highly Relativistic Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration, Transport, and Loss: Large Solar Storm Events of March and June 2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Foster, J.C.; Erickson, P. J.; Fennell, Joseph; Blake, J. B.; Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Elkington, S. R.;

Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015

PubMed Central

Jaynes, A. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Foster, J. C.; Erickson, P. J.; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Elkington, S. R.; Henderson, M. G.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C. A.; Wygant, J. R.

2016-01-01

Abstract Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection‐driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching −223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching −204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high‐energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong “butterfly” distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported “impenetrable barrier” at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis. PMID:27867796

Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Edmund Kar-Man

The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonalmore » skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks« less

Precipitation-snowmelt timing and snowmelt augmentation of large peak flow events, western Cascades, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, Keith; Jones, Julia A.

2015-09-01

This study tested multiple hydrologic mechanisms to explain snowpack dynamics in extreme rain-on-snow floods, which occur widely in the temperate and polar regions. We examined 26, 10 day large storm events over the period 1992-2012 in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in western Oregon, using statistical analyses (regression, ANOVA, and wavelet coherence) of hourly snowmelt lysimeter, air and dewpoint temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and discharge data. All events involved snowpack outflow, but only seven events had continuous net snowpack outflow, including three of the five top-ranked peak discharge events. Peak discharge was not related to precipitation rate, but it was related to the 10 day sum of precipitation and net snowpack outflow, indicating an increased flood response to continuously melting snowpacks. The two largest peak discharge events in the study had significant wavelet coherence at multiple time scales over several days; a distribution of phase differences between precipitation and net snowpack outflow at the 12-32 h time scale with a sharp peak at π/2 radians; and strongly correlated snowpack outflow among lysimeters representing 42% of basin area. The recipe for an extreme rain-on-snow event includes persistent, slow melt within the snowpack, which appears to produce a near-saturated zone within the snowpack throughout the landscape, such that the snowpack may transmit pressure waves of precipitation directly to streams, and this process is synchronized across the landscape. Further work is needed to understand the internal dynamics of a melting snowpack throughout a snow-covered landscape and its contribution to extreme rain-on-snow floods.

Determination of solar wind energy input during different form of geomagnetic disturbances.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahal, S.; Adhikari, B.; Narayan, C.; Shapkota, N.

2017-12-01

A quantitative study on solar wind energy input during different form of geomagnetic disturbances as well as during quite period was performed. To enable a quantitative analysis, we estimate Akasofu parameter which plays an important role to understand the relationships between ionosphere-magnetosphere and solar wind energy input. For comparative purpose, the total energy budget of Non storm HILDCAA event (19th to 24th April 2003), Storm preceding HILDCAA event (14th to 19th May 2005), Geomagnetic sub-storm (12nd to 16th November 2003), Geomagnetic super sub-storm (12nd to 16th November 2003) and a Quiet period (18th to 21st July 2006) were also analyzed. Among these events the highest total energy budget was found during the occurrence of storm preceding HILDCAA. This is due to significant geomagnetic field perturbation as displayed on the value of interplanetary parameters. The principal cause of geomagnetic disturbance is the magnetic reconnection, which establishes an electrodynamic coupling between the solar plasma and the magnetosphere. Although there is distinct perturbation on SYM-H index for all events but the values are different. The highest pick value of SYM-H index ( -300nT) was found for the storm preceding HILDCAA.This results suggest that the effects of HILDCAAs, displayed on the value of the SYM-H index, depends on the amount of the energy injected into the ring current. In a complementary way, fluctuation pattern of Temperature, IMF magnitude, Bx component, By component, and AE index are also studied and the possible physical interpretations for the statistical results obtained during each events were discussed. We shall report the characteristics of Bz component during each events by the implementation of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and cross correlation analysis. We did cross-correlation between solar wind energy and Bz component of IMF and found a negative correlation between them during the main phase of geomagnetic disturbances. These results help to understand the coupling process between solar wind and magnetosphere-ionosphere system. By DWT analysis we found distinct singularity in solar wind energy signal during the period when Bz component is highly perturbed. This result indicates that there are impulsive energy injections superposed to the smooth background process.

Typhoon Sinlaku

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

One of the more destructive cyclones to emerge from the northern hemisphere 2002 summer storm season was Typhoon Sinlaku. Several attributes of this storm event are portrayed in these data products from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer. The images were acquired on September 5, when the western portion of the storm was situated over the Okinawan island chain. Over the next few days it moved west-northwest, sweeping over Taiwan before making landfall along China's Zhejian province on the 7th. The typhoon forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, caused major power outages, and at least 26 people were reported dead or missing before the storm weakened as it moved inland.

While the nature and formation of individual storm events is relatively well understood, the influence of clouds on climate is difficult to assess due to the variable nature of cloud cover at various altitudes. MISR's data products are designed to help understand these influences. Typhoon Sinlaku is shown at left as a natural-color view observed by MISR's vertical-viewing (nadir)camera. The center panel shows the cloud-top height field derived using automated stereoscopic processing of data from multiple MISR cameras. Relative height variations, such as the clearing within the storm's eye, are well represented. Areas where heights could not be retrieved are shown in dark gray.

Clouds have a significant influence on the global radiation balance of the Earth's atmosphere, and the improvement of climate models requires more accurate information on how different types of clouds influence Earth's energy budget. One measure of this influence is albedo, which is the amount of sunlight reflected back to space divided by amount of incident sunlight. Bright objects have high albedo. Retrieved local albedo values for Typhoon Sinlaku are shown at right. Generation of this product is dependent on observed cloud radiances as a function of viewing angle and the cloud height field. Over the short distances (2.2 kilometers) that MISR's local albedo product is generated, values can be greater than 1.0 due to the contributions from the sides of the clouds. Areas where albedo could not be retrieved are shown in dark gray.

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously from pole to pole, and views almost the entire globe every 9 days. This image is a portion of the data acquired during Terra orbit 14442, and covers an area of about 380 kilometers x 1408 kilometers. It utilizes data from blocks 65 to 74 within World Reference System-2 path 113.

Seasonality of snow accumulation at Mount Wrangell, Alaska, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanamori, Syosaku; Benson, Carl S.; Truffer, Martin; Matoba, Sumito; Solie, Daniel J.; Shiraiwa, Takayuki

We recorded the burial times of temperature sensors mounted on a specially constructed tower to determine snow accumulation during individual storms in the summit caldera of Mount Wrangell, Alaska, USA, (62°N, 144°W; 4100 m a.s.l.) during the accumulation year June 2005 to June 2006. The experiment showed most of the accumulation occurred in episodic large storms, and half of the total accumulation was delivered in late summer. The timing of individual events correlated well with storms recorded upwind, at Cordova, the closest Pacific coastal weather station (200 km south-southeast), although the magnitude of events showed only poor correlation. Hence, snow accumulation at Mount Wrangell appears to be a reflection of synoptic-scale regional weather systems. The accumulation at Mount Wrangell's summit (>2.5 m w.e.) exceeded the precipitation at Cordova. Although the direct relationship between accumulation of individual storms at the summit of Mount Wrangell and precipitation events at Cordova may be unique in the region, it is useful for interpreting ice cores obtained on Mount Wrangell. This is especially the case here because the high rate of accumulation allows high time resolution within the core.

Effect of Dust Storms on the Atmospheric Microbiome in the Eastern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Mazar, Yinon; Cytryn, Eddie; Erel, Yigal; Rudich, Yinon

2016-04-19

We evaluated the impact of Saharan dust storms on the local airborne microbiome in a city in the Eastern Mediterranean area. Samples of particles with diameter less than 10 μm were collected during two spring seasons on both dusty and nondusty days. DNA was extracted, and partial 16S rRNA gene amplicons were sequenced using the Illumina platform. Bioinformatic analysis showed the effect of dust events on the diversity of the atmospheric microbiome. The relative abundance of desert soil-associated bacteria increased during dust events, while the relative abundance of anthropogenic-influenced taxa decreased. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction measurements of selected clinically significant antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) showed that their relative abundance decreased during dust events. The ARG profiles on dust-free days were similar to those in aerosol collected in a poultry house, suggesting a strong agricultural influence on the local ambient profiles. We conclude that dust storms enrich the ambient airborne microbiome with new soil-derived bacteria that disappear as the dust settles, suggesting that the bacteria are transported attached to the dust particles. Dust storms do not seem to be an important vector for transport of probed ARGs.

40 CFR 141.130 - General requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) which add a chemical disinfectant to the water in any part of the drinking water treatment process must..., distribution line breaks, storm run-off events, source water contamination events, or cross-connection events...

Satellite observations of the onset and growth of severe local storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Negri, A. J.; Vonderhaar, T. H.

1977-01-01

The mesoscale nature of the forcing and evolution of these storms was investigated, with emphasis on techniques to aid in the early detection of such severe events. In the pre-storm environment (t-4 to t-2 hours), the satellite wind fields were combined with moisture parameters to derive horizontal moisture flux information. Low level moisture convergence was indicative of regions of subsequent severe storm genesis. Dynamic parameters such as boundary layer vorticity production and relative vorticity were also useful prognosticators of subsequent severe activity.

Circulation Type Classifications and their nexus to Van Bebber's storm track Vb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofstätter, M.; Chimani, B.

2012-04-01

Circulation Type Classifications (CTCs) are tools to identify repetitive and predominantly stationary patterns of the atmospheric circulation over a certain area, with the purpose to enable the recognition of specific characteristics in surface climate variables. On the other hand storm tracks can be used to identify similar types of synoptic events from a non-stationary, kinematic perspective. Such a storm track classification for Europe has been done in the late 19th century by Van Bebber (1882, 1891), from which the famous type Vb and Vc/d remained up to the present day because of to their association with major flooding events like in August 2002 in Europe. In this work a systematic tracking procedure has been developed, to determine storm track types and their characteristics especially for the Eastern Alpine Region in the period 1961-2002, using ERA40 and ERAinterim reanalysis. The focus thereby is on cyclone tracks of type V as suggested by van Bebber and congeneric types. This new catalogue is used as a reference to verify the hypothesis of a certain coherence of storm track Vb with certain circulation types (e.g. Fricke and Kaminski, 2002). Selected objective and subjective classification schemes from the COST733 action (http://cost733.met.no/, Phillip et al. 2010) are used therefore, as well as the manual classification from ZAMG (Lauscher 1972 and 1985), in which storm track Vb has been classified explicitly on a daily base since 1948. The latter scheme should prove itself as a valuable and unique data source in that issue. Results show that not less than 146 storm tracks are identified as Vb between 1961 and 2002, whereas only three events could be found from literature, pointing to big subjectivity and preconception in the issue of Vb storm tracks. The annual number of Vb storm tracks do not show any significant trend over the last 42 years, but large variations from year to year. Circulation type classification CAP27 (Cluster Analysis of Principal Components) is the best performing, fully objective scheme tested herein, showing the power to discriminate Vb events. Most of the other fully objective schemes do by far not perform as well. Largest skill in that issue can be seen from the subjective/manual CTCs, proving themselves to enhance relevant synoptic phenomena instead of emphasizing mathematic criteria in the classification. The hypothesis of Fricke and Kaminsky can definitely be supported by this work: Vb storm tracks are included in one or the other stationary circulation pattern, but to which extent depends on the specific characteristics of the CTC in question.

Discussion: Comparison of slope instability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingley, Leslie; Slaughter, Stephen L.; Sarikhan, Isabelle Y.; Norman, David K.

2013-02-01

This discussion is in response to the article entitled "Comparison of slope stability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy" by Kara Whittaker and Dan McShane (Geomorphology 145-146 (2012) 115-122). The discussion is coauthored by several geologists at the Washington Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) including those from the research and policy sections of the state agency.

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall pH

Treesearch

Richard G. Semonin

1977-01-01

The distribution of average rainwater pH over an area of 1,800 km² containing 81 collectors was determined from 25 storm events. The areal average of the data was pH 4.9, with a range of values from 4.3 to 6.8. A single storm event was studied to determine the change of pH as a function of time. The initial rain was pH 7.1, decreasing to 4.1. An excellent...

Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralph, F.M.; Coleman, T.; Neiman, P.J.; Zamora, R.J.; Dettinger, Mike

2013-01-01

This study is motivated by diverse needs for better forecasts of extreme precipitation and floods. It is enabled by unique hourly observations collected over six years near California’s Russian River and by recent advances in the science of atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study fills key gaps limiting the prediction of ARs and, especially, their impacts by quantifying the duration of AR conditions and the role of duration in modulating hydrometeorological impacts. Precursor soil moisture conditions and their relationship to streamflow are also shown. On the basis of 91 well-observed events during 2004-10, the study shows that the passage of ARs over a coastal site lasted 20 h on average and that 12% of the AR events exceeded 30 h. Differences in storm-total water vapor transport directed up the mountain slope contribute 74% of the variance in storm-total rainfall across the events and 61% of the variance in storm-total runoff volume. ARs with double the composite mean duration produced nearly 6 times greater peak streamflow and more than 7 times the storm-total runoff volume. When precursor soil moisture was less than 20%, even heavy rainfall did not lead to significant streamflow. Predicting which AR events are likely to produce extreme impacts on precipitation and runoff requires accurate prediction of AR duration at landfall and observations of precursor soil moisture conditions.

SurgeWatch: a user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan; Nicholls, Robert J.; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Gallop, Shari; Brown, Jennifer; Horsburgh, Kevin; Bradshaw, Elizabeth

2016-04-01

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called 'SurgeWatch', which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens. We also focus on some significant events in the database, such as the North Sea storm surge of 31 January-1 February 1953 (Northwest Europe's most severe coastal floods in living memory) and the 5-6 December 2013 "Xaver" Storm and floods.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2003-01-01

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris-flows issuing from basins burned by the Piru, Simi and Verdale Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to the 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year 1-hour rain storms. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Piru Fire range between 2 and 94% and estimates of debris flow peak discharges range between 1,200 and 6,640 ft3/s (34 to 188 m3/s). Basins burned by the Simi Fire show probabilities for debris-flow occurrence between 1 and 98%, and peak discharge estimates between 1,130 and 6,180 ft3/s (32 and 175 m3/s). The probabilities for debris-flow activity calculated for the Verdale Fire range from negligible values to 13%. Peak discharges were not estimated for this fire because of these low probabilities. These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

Treesearch

Jennifer A Holm; Skip J Van Bloem; Guy R Larocque; Herman H Shugart

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical...

Ionospheric Behavior During the First Few Hours of Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mannucci, Anthony J.; Crowley, Geoff; Tsurutani, Bruce; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

2006-01-01

The behavior of the ionosphere during the first few hours of intense geomagnetic storms is presented. The topics include: 1) TEC Modification; 2) JASON TEC (1336 km altitude); 3) Multiple Storms; 4) CHAMP (greater than 400 km) November 20, 2003; 5) November 20, 1PM LT, Ground; 6) Role of Modeling; and 7) Composition-related increase.

Convection index as a tool for trend analysis of intense summer storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaal, Ladislav; Molnar, Peter; Szolgay, Jan

2013-04-01

Convective summer thunderstorms are generally responsible for the most devastating floods in urban and small natural catchments. In this study we focus on the identification of the nature and magnitude of changes in the properties of intense summer storms of convective character in Switzerland in the last three decades. The study is based on precipitation records from the SwissMetNet (MeteoSwiss) network at 63 stations that cover altitudes ranging from 200 up to 3300 m a.s.l. over the period 1981-2012 (32 years). Additionally, the same stations also measure the number of lightning strikes within a range of 30 km from each station. In an accompanying contribution we describe the method how intensive summer storms can be reliably selected out of all storms in long and high resolution precipitation time series. On the basis of the statistical distributions and dependence among key storm characteristics at the event scale (total rainfall depth R, storm duration D, and peak intensity I) and using high resolution lightning data as a surrogate we defined a threshold intensity I* that differentiates between the events accompanied with lightning with an acceptably small probability of misclassification. This allowed us to identify intense summer events with convective character as those where I > I* regardless of their duration or total rainfall depth. The current study makes use of the threshold intensity I* for the definition of a seasonal convection index at each station (Llasat, 2001). This index gives us a measure of 'convectiveness', i.e. the total precipitation depth coming from convective storms relative to the total precipitation depth of all summer storms. We computed the convection index at all 63 stations and analyzed the series for trends. We found that the seasonal convection index increases at most of the stations in Switzerland and in approximately 20% of the cases this increase is statistically significant. This is likely a consequence of the fact that the number of summer storms exceeding the threshold I* also shows an increasing tendency with a similar percentage of statistically significant changes. Although our analysis indicates an increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of summer storms with convective character in Switzerland, it is not yet clear whether these can be traced to causal factors such as atmospheric warming, etc. This remains an open research question.

[Effect of antecedent dry weather period on urban storm runoff pollution load].

PubMed

Li, Li-qing; Yin, Cheng-qing; Kong, Ling-li; He, Qing-ci

2007-10-01

Twelve storm events were surveyed at Shilipu catchment in Wuhan City through three-year monitoring regime. The flow discharges, total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in runoff were measured to study the mechanism of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The relationship between the event pollution load and the antecedent dry weather period was identified to discuss the influence of the urban surface sanitation management, operation of sewer pipe maintenance and rainfall characteristics on the urban stormwater runoff pollution. It was found that the antecedent dry weather period and runoff amount were the important determining factors in the generation of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The event pollution load was positively correlated to the antecedent dry weather period between two rainfall events (R2 = 0.95, p < 0.01). It was the most important hydrological factor influencing the events pollution loads. The best regression equation to estimate pollution load for storm events was developed based on the antecedent dry weather period and runoff depth. Source control including improving urban street sweeping activities and operation of sewer pipe maintenance should be made to reduce the amount of available pollutant over the dry days. It is important alternative to control urban stormwater runoff pollution for Hanyang District.

Extreme beach retreat history inferred from cut-and-fill beach deposits at Moruya, SE Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, T.; Woodroffe, C. D.; Oliver, T.; Cunningham, A. C.

2017-12-01

A sequence of beach ridges often records a `cut and fill', where the fair-weather swash accretion of beach sand is punctuated by storm erosion. The detailed chronology of the sequence is thus a clue to decipher past storm events and associated beach erosion, but has not been explored much. Here we explore the potential of such a sequence to detect past extreme retreats in Bengello Beach at Moruya, southeastern Australia. Beach monitoring since 1972 reveals that Bengello beach has shown a typical cut and fill, in which the beach retreats several tens of meters in relation to storms and recovers within a following few years. A storm event caused extreme retreat up to 50 m in 1974. Since then, no retreat exceeded 30 m. The beach monitoring highlights the sporadic nature of the prograded beach deposits; they can only be preserved as stratigraphic records during rapid beach recovery following a large retreat deeper than the beach profile envelope. Thus, ages of the preserved beach deposits roughly correspond to timings of large retreat. Optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages were determined for beach deposits at 5-10 m intervals along a shore-normal transect from the modern foredune to beach ridge 120 m inland. The most landward sample was dated as 510 yr, indicating that the net progradation rate is 0.24 m/yr, concordant with both the long- and short-term rates since the mid Holocene and 1972, respectively. Other ages show four events of retreat around 350, 180, 130 and 90 yr, and also reflect the beach scarp resulting from the 1974 event. The retreat of each event is given by the distance between the shoreline position prior to storm erosion and relevant gap in OSL age. The position of the pre-storm shoreline is estimated by assuming a constant rate of the net progradation of 0.24 m/yr, as with long- and short-term rates. The retreat of the four events is then determined as 45-55 m, similar to the 1974 event. In summary, extreme beach retreats, including that in 1974, appear to have happened at least five times over the last 350 years with a variable recurrence interval of 50-150 years at Moruya. Multi-timescale analysis of the beach-ridge sequence as shown in Moruya has the potential to detect past extreme beach retreat that should be taken into account for the long-term coastal management.

Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriman, L.

2014-12-01

Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust transport from eastern Australia: a proxy for Holocene aridity and ENSO-type climate variability, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 282. [4] Kimura, R. (2012), Factors contributing to dust storms in source regions producing the yellow-sand phenomena observed in Japan from 1993 to 2002, J. Arid Environ. 80

Using atmospheric chemistry and storm tracks to explain nitrate stable isotope variations in precipitation at a site in central Pennsylvania, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stable isotopes of NO3- (delta15N-NO3- and delta18O-NO3-) were monitored in precipitation at a central Pennsylvania site during six storm events in 2005 to determine whether information on atmospheric oxidants (e.g. O3, NO2, and NOx), and storm-tracks were capable of explaining observed seasonal and...

Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2011-01-01

A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics.

PubMed

Levine, Jonathan M; McEachern, A Kathryn; Cowan, Clark

2011-12-01

A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

Nitrate Removal Rates in Denitrifying Bioreactors During Storm Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pluer, W.; Walter, T.

2017-12-01

Field denitrifying bioreactors are designed to reduce excess nitrate (NO3-) pollution in runoff from agricultural fields. Field bioreactors saturate organic matter to create conditions that facilitate microbial denitrification. Prior studies using steady flow in lab-scale bioreactors showed that a hydraulic retention time (HRT) between 4 and 10 hours was optimal for reducing NO3- loads. However, during storm-induced events, flow rate and actual HRT fluctuate. These fluctuations have the potential to disrupt the system in significant ways that are not captured by the idealized steady-flow HRT models. The goal of this study was to investigate removal rate during dynamic storm flows of variable rates and durations. Our results indicate that storm peak flow and duration were not significant controlling variables. Instead, we found high correlations (p=0.004) in average removal rates between bioreactors displaying a predominantly uniform flow pattern compared with bioreactors that exhibited preferential flow (24.4 and 21.4 g N m-3 d-1, respectively). This suggests that the internal flow patterns are a more significant driver of removal rate than external factors of the storm hydrograph. Designing for flow patterns in addition to theoretical HRT will facilitate complete mixing within the bioreactors. This will help maximize excess NO3- removal during large storm-induced runoff events.

Klaus, an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France - a comparison between storm diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-05-01

The synoptic evolution and dynamical characteristics of storm "Klaus" (23 and 24 January 2009) are analysed. "Klaus" was an extratropical cyclone which developed over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean on the 21st January 2009, then moved eastward embedded in the strong westerly flow and experienced a notorious strengthening on the 23rd January. The storm moved into the Bay of Biscay and deepened further before hitting Northern Spain and Southwestern France with gusts of up to 198 km/h. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. "Klaus" was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes: a) the vorticity maxima based algorithm originally developed by Murray and Simmonds [1991], adapted for Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics [Pinto et al. 2005]; and b) the pressure minima based algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region [Trigo et al. 1999; 2002] and later extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region [Trigo 2006]. Additionally, the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm are analysed. The vorticity based method detects the storm earlier than the pressure minima one. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor discrepancies being probably related to different ways of both methods handling the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple candidates for cyclonic centres. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During maximum intensity change within 24 hours was 1.165hPa/(deglat)2. References: Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 39, 155-166. Pinto JG et al (2005) Meteorol. Z., 14, 823-838. Trigo IF et al (1999) J. Climate, 12, 1685-1696. Trigo IF et al (2002) Mon. Weather Rev. 130, 549-569. Trigo IF (2006) Clim. Dyn., 26, 127-143.

Geoeffectiveness of Stream Interaction Regions during 2007-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Garcia, Elsa; Aguilar-Rodriguez, Ernesto; Ontiveros, Veronica

2016-07-01

The Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) are generated in the interplanetary medium when a fast solar wind stream overtakes a slower one. If these large-scale phenomena interact with the Earth's magnetosphere they can give rise to geomagnetic storms (GSs). In this study we analyze the degree of geoeffectiveness of 20 events that were generated by SIRs. The events were observed during the 2007-2008 period that comprising the extended downward phase of solar cycle 23. The degree of geoeffectivity is measured using magnetic indices from different latitudes: PCN (Polar cap north), PCS (polar cap south), AA (antipodal amplitude), AE (Auroral Electrojet), Kp (estimated global index) and Dst (Disturbance storm time). We discuss some results on the correlation of these magnetic indices with the characteristics of shocks associated with the SIRs observed by STEREO-A/B, WIND and ACE spacecraft. All the 20 SIRs events generated GSs with Dst values in ranging from -86 nT up to -12 nT. Moreover, 6 out of the 20 events presented storm sudden commencement (SSC). We also discuss on the characteristics of the SIR-associated shocks and the intensity of the GSs.

Seasonal Variability of Precipitation Extremes in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polanco, W.

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes can have very important impacts, and it is not known as to how precipitation extremes might change with global warming. New York City is located in the mid-latitude region where there are specific storms that can cause precipitation extremes, predominantly, hurricanes, extratropical cyclones, and quasi-linear convective systems. These storms preferentially occur during different seasons. Therefore, to understand how these different storms relate to precipitation extremes, this study examines NYC precipitation extremes per season. First, NOAA weather station data from January 1979 to December 2014 from the three NYC airports (JFK, LaGuardia and Newark) will be analyzed to derive the climatology, the counts of non-rain events, and the counts of extreme precipitation events. Next, a multi-station average will be used to compare the precipitation events that occur in Spring, Summer, and Fall. The precipitation strength will be compared as well as the temperature anomalies for each season. Then, using reanalysis, composites of the sea level pressure and temperature fields will be calculated for the top events from each season.

Storm-surge flooding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terenzi, John; Ely, Craig R.; Jorgenson, M. Torre

2014-01-01

Coastal regions of Alaska are regularly affected by intense storms of ocean origin, the frequency and intensity of which are expected to increase as a result of global climate change. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), situated in western Alaska on the eastern edge of the Bering Sea, is one of the largest deltaic systems in North America. Its low relief makes it especially susceptible to storm-driven flood tides and increases in sea level. Little information exists on the extent of flooding caused by storm surges in western Alaska and its effects on salinization, shoreline erosion, permafrost thaw, vegetation, wildlife, and the subsistence-based economy. In this paper, we summarize storm flooding events in the Bering Sea region of western Alaska during 1913 – 2011 and map both the extent of inland flooding caused by autumn storms on the central YKD, using Radarsat-1 and MODIS satellite imagery, and the drift lines, using high-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery and field surveys. The largest storm surges occurred in autumn and were associated with high tides and strong (> 65 km hr-1) southwest winds. Maximum inland extent of flooding from storm surges was 30.3 km in 2005, 27.4 km in 2006, and 32.3 km in 2011, with total flood area covering 47.1%, 32.5%, and 39.4% of the 6730 km2 study area, respectively. Peak stages for the 2005 and 2011 storms were 3.1 m and 3.3 m above mean sea level, respectively—almost as high as the 3.5 m amsl elevation estimated for the largest storm observed (in November 1974). Several historically abandoned village sites lie within the area of inundation of the largest flood events. With projected sea level rise, large storms are expected to become more frequent and cover larger areas, with deleterious effects on freshwater ponds, non-saline habitats, permafrost, and landscapes used by nesting birds and local people.

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

Temporal evolution of ion spectral structures during a geomagnetic storm: Observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferradas, C.; Zhang, J.; Spence, H. E.; Kistler, L. M.; Larsen, B.; Reeves, G. D.; Skoug, R. M.; Funsten, H. O.

2016-12-01

During the last decades several missions have recorded the presence of dynamic spectral features of energetic ions in the inner magnetosphere. We present a case study of the temporal evolution of H+, He+, and O+ spectral structures throughout the geomagnetic storm of 2 October 2013. We use data from the Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron (HOPE) mass spectrometer onboard Van Allen Probe A to analyze the spectral structures in the energy range of 1- 50 keV. We find that the characteristics of the ion structures follow a cyclic pattern, the observed features changing dramatically as the storm starts and then returning to its initial pre-storm state. Quiet, pre-storm times are characterized by multiple and often complex flux structures at narrow energy bands. During the storm main phase, the observed features become simple, with no nose structures or only one nose structure present in the energy-time spectrograms. As the inner magnetosphere recovers from the storm, more complex structures appear once again. Additionally, the heavy ion spectral features are generally more complex than the H+ features, with multiple noses being observed more often in the heavy ion spectra. We use a model of ion drift and losses due to charge exchange to understand the formation of the spectral features and their species dependence.

Statistical Analysis of the Links between Blocking and Nor'easters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, J. F.; Pfahl, S.

2015-12-01

Nor'easters can be loosely defined as extratropical cyclones that develop as they progress northward along the eastern coast of North America. The path makes it possible for these storms to generate storm surge along the coastline and/or heavy precipitation or snow inland. In the present analysis, the path of the storms is investigated relative to the behavior of upstream blocking events over the North Atlantic Ocean. For this analysis, two separate Lagrangian tracking methods are used to identify the extratropical cyclone paths and the blocking events. Using the cyclone paths, Nor'easters are identified and blocking statistics are calculated for the days prior to, during and following the occurrence of the Nor'easters. The path, strength and intensification rates of the cyclones are compared with the strength and location of the blocks. In the event that a Nor'easter occurs, the likelihood of the presence of block at the southeast tip of Greenland is statistically significantly increased, i.e., the presence of a block concurrent with a Nor'easter happens more often than by random coincidence. However no significant link between the strength of the storms and the strength of the block is identified. These results suggest that the presence of the block mainly affects the path of the Nor'easters. On the other hand, in the event of blocking at the southeast tip of Greenland, the likelihood of a Nor'easter, as opposed to a different type of storm is no greater than what one might expect from randomly sampling cyclone tracks. The results confirm a long held understanding in forecast meteorology that upstream blocking is a necessary but not sufficient condition for generating a Nor'easter.

Airborne dust absorption by semi-arid forests reduces PM pollution in nearby urban environments.

PubMed

Uni, Daphna; Katra, Itzhak

2017-11-15

Dust storms are a major source of global atmospheric particulate matter (PM), having significant impacts on air pollution and human health. During dust storms, daily averages of atmospheric PM concentrations can reach high levels above the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for air quality. The objective of this study was to explore the impact of forests on PM distribution following dust events in a region that is subjected to frequent dust storms (Northern Negev, Israel). Dust was measured in a forest transect including urban environments that are nearby the forest and at a distal location. During a background period, without dust events, the forest with its surrounding areas were characterized by lower monthly average of PM concentrations (38μg/m 3 ) compared with areas that are not affected by the forest (54μg/m 3 ). Such difference can be meaningful for long-term human health exposure. A reduction in PM levels in the forest transect was evident at most measured dust events, depending on the storm intensity and the locations of the protected areas. A significant reduction in PM 2.5 /PM 10 during dust events, indicates the high efficiency of the forest trees to absorb airborne PM 2.5 . Analysis of dust particles absorbed on the foliage revealed a total dust deposits of 8.1-9.2g/m 2 , which is equal to a minimum of 418.2tons removed from the atmosphere per a forest foliage area (30km 2 ). The findings can support environmental strategies to enhance life quality in regions that are subjected to dust storms, or under potential risk of dust-related PM due to land use and/or climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetopause Losses of Radiation Belt Electrons During a Recent Magnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemon, C. L.; Chen, M.; Roeder, J. L.; Fennell, J. F.; Mulligan, T. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.

2013-12-01

We present results from Van Allen Probes observations during the magnetic storm of June 1, 2013, and compare them with simulations of the same event using the RCM-E model. The RCM-E calculates ion and electron transport in self-consistently computed electric and magnetic fields. We examine the effect of the perturbed ring current magnetic field on the transport of energetic electrons, and the significance of this transport for explaining the observed evolution of radiation belt fluxes during this event. The event is notable because it is a relatively simple storm in which strong convection persists for approximately 7 hours, injecting a moderately strong ring current (minimum Dst of -120 nT); convection then quickly shuts off, leading to a long and smooth recovery phase. We use RCM-E simulations, constrained by Van Allen Probes data, to asses the rate of magnetopause losses of electrons (magnetopause shadowing), and to calculate electron drift times and the evolution of electron phase space densities during the storm event. We recently modified the RCM-E plasma drift calculations to include relativistic treatment of electrons and a more realistic electron loss model. The new electron loss model, although still somewhat simplistic, gives much more accurate loss rates in the inner magnetosphere (including the radiation belts), which significantly affects the resulting electron fluxes compared to previous simulations. This, in turn, modifies the transport of ions and electrons via feedback with both the electric and magnetic fields. Our results highlight the effect of the ring current on the evolution of the radiation belt electrons, with particular emphasis on the role that magnetopause losses play in the observed variation of radiation belt electron fluxes during the storm.

The relationship between gorgonian coral (Cnidaria: Gorgonacea) diseases and African dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weir-Brush, J. R.; Garrison, V.H.; Smith, G.W.; Shinn, E.A.

2004-01-01

The number of reports of coral diseases has increased throughout the world in the last 20 years. Aspergillosis, which primarily affects Gorgonia ventalina and G. flabellum, is one of the few diseases to be characterized. This disease is caused by Aspergillus sydowii, a terrestrial fungus with a worldwide distribution. Upon infection, colonies may lose tissue, and ultimately, mortality may occur if the infection is not sequestered. The spores of A. sydowii are <5 ??m, small enough to be easily picked up by winds and dispersed over great distances. Aspergillosis is prevalent in the Caribbean, and it appears that this primarily terrestrial fungus has adapted to a marine environment. It has been proposed that dust storms originating in Africa may be one way in which potential coral pathogens are distributed and deposited into the marine environments of the Caribbean. To test the hypothesis that African dust storms transport and deposit pathogens, we collected air samples from both dust storms and periods of nondust in St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands. Because we focused on fungal pathogens and used A. sydowii as a model, we isolated and cultured fungi on various types of media. Fungi including Aspergillus spp. were isolated from air samples taken from dust events and non-dust events. Twenty-three separate cultures and seven genera were isolated from dust event samples whereas eight cultures from five genera were isolated from non-dust air samples. Three isolates from the Virgin Islands dust event samples morphologically identified as Aspergillus spp. produced signs of aspergillosis in seafans, and the original pathogens were re-isolated from those diseased seafans fulfilling Koch's Postulates. This research supports the hypothesis that African dust storms transport across the Atlantic Ocean and deposit potential coral pathogens in the Caribbean.

RELATIONSHIPs among Geomagnetic storms, interplanetary shocks, magnetic clouds, and SUNSPOT NUMBER during 1995-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdichevsky, D. B.; Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C. C.

2015-12-01

During 1995-2012 Wind recorded 168 magnetic clouds (MCs), 197 magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs), and 358 interplanetary (IP) shocks. Ninety four MCs and 56 MCLs had upstream shock waves. The following features are found: (i) Averages of solar wind speed, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), duration (<Δt>), strength of Bzmin, and intensity of the associated geomagnetic storm/activity (Dstmin) for MCs with upstream shock waves (MCSHOCK) are higher (or stronger) than those averages for the MCs without upstream shock waves (MCNO-SHOCK). (ii) The <Δt> of MCSHOCK events (≈19.6 hr) is 9% longer than that for MCNO-SHOCK events (≈17.9 hr). (iii) For the MCSHOCK events, the average duration of the sheath (<ΔtSHEATH>) is 12.1 hrs. These findings could be very useful for space weather predictions, i.e. IP shocks driven by MCs are expected to arrive at Wind (or at 1 AU) about ~12 hours ahead of the front of the MCs on average. (iv) The occurrence frequency of IP shocks is well associated with sunspot number (SSN). The average intensity of geomagnetic storms measured by for MCSHOCK and MCNOSHOCK events is -102 and -31 nT, respectively. The is -78, -70, and -35 nT for the 358 IP shocks, 168 MCs, and 197 MCLs, respectively. These results imply that IP shocks, when they occur with MCs/MCLs, must play an important role in the strength of geomagnetic storms. We speculate as to why this is so. Yearly occurrence frequencies of MCSHOCK and IP shocks are well correlated with solar activity (e.g., SSN). Choosing the right Dstmin estimating formula for predicting the intensity of MC-associated geomagnetic storms is crucial for space weather predictions.

Coupling Poisson rectangular pulse and multiplicative microcanonical random cascade models to generate sub-daily precipitation timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Müller, Hannes; Schümberg, Sabine; Zha, Tingting; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

2018-07-01

To simulate the impacts of within-storm rainfall variabilities on fast hydrological processes, long precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are required. Due to limited availability of observed data such time series are typically obtained from stochastic models. However, most existing rainfall models are limited in their ability to conserve rainfall event statistics which are relevant for hydrological processes. Poisson rectangular pulse models are widely applied to generate long time series of alternating precipitation events durations and mean intensities as well as interstorm period durations. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascade (MRC) models are used to disaggregate precipitation time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. To overcome the inconsistencies between the temporal structure of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the MRC model, we developed a new coupling approach by introducing two modifications to the MRC model. These modifications comprise (a) a modified cascade model ("constrained cascade") which preserves the event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular model by constraining the first and last interval of a precipitation event to contain precipitation and (b) continuous sigmoid functions of the multiplicative weights to consider the scale-dependency in the disaggregation of precipitation events of different durations. The constrained cascade model was evaluated in its ability to disaggregate observed precipitation events in comparison to existing MRC models. For that, we used a 20-year record of hourly precipitation at six stations across Germany. The constrained cascade model showed a pronounced better agreement with the observed data in terms of both the temporal pattern of the precipitation time series (e.g. the dry and wet spell durations and autocorrelations) and event characteristics (e.g. intra-event intermittency and intensity fluctuation within events). The constrained cascade model also slightly outperformed the other MRC models with respect to the intensity-frequency relationship. To assess the performance of the coupled Poisson rectangular pulse and constrained cascade model, precipitation events were stochastically generated by the Poisson rectangular pulse model and then disaggregated by the constrained cascade model. We found that the coupled model performs satisfactorily in terms of the temporal pattern of the precipitation time series, event characteristics and the intensity-frequency relationship.

A 24 h investigation of the hydrogeochemistry of baseflow and stormwater in an urban area impacted by mining: Butte, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gammons, Christopher H.; Shope, Christopher L.; Duaime, Terence E.

2005-01-01

Changes in water quality during a storm event were continuously monitored over a 24 h period at a single location along an urban stormwater drain in Butte, Montana. The Butte Metro Storm Drain (MSD) collects groundwater baseflow and stormwater draining Butte Hill, a densely populated site that has been severely impacted by 130 years of mining, milling, and smelting of copper-rich, polymetallic mineral deposits. On the afternoon of 26 June 2002, a heavy thunderstorm caused streamflow in the MSD to increase 100-fold, from 0·2 ft3 s−1 to more than 20 ft3 s−1. Hourly discharge and water quality data were collected before, during, and following the storm. The most significant finding was that the calculated loads (grams per hour) of both dissolved and particulate copper passing down the MSD increased more than 100-fold in the first hour following the storm, and remained elevated over baseline conditions for the remainder of the study period. Other metals, such as zinc, cadmium, and manganese, showed a decrease in load from pre-storm to post-storm conditions. In addition to the large flush of copper, loads of soluble phosphorus increased during the storm, whereas dissolved oxygen dropped to low levels (<2 mg l−1). These results show that infrequent storm events in Butte have the potential to generate large volumes of runoff that exceed Montana water quality standards for acute exposure of aquatic life to copper, as well as depressed levels of dissolved oxygen. This study has important implications to ongoing reclamation activities in the upper Clark Fork Superfund site, particularly with respect to management of storm flow, and may be applicable to other watersheds impacted by mining activities.

Dune recovery after storm erosion on a high-energy beach: Vougot Beach, Brittany (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suanez, Serge; Cariolet, Jean-Marie; Cancouët, Romain; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Delacourt, Christophe

2012-02-01

On 10th March 2008, the high energy storm Johanna hit the French Atlantic coast, generating severe dune erosion on Vougot Beach (Brittany, France). In this paper, the recovery of the dune of Vougot Beach is analysed through a survey of morphological changes and hydrodynamic conditions. Data collection focused on the period immediately following storm Johanna until July 2010, i.e. over two and a half years. Results showed that the dune retreated by a maximum of almost 6 m where storm surge and wave attack were the most energetic. Dune retreat led to the creation of accommodation space for the storage of sediment by widening and elevating space between the pre- and post-storm dune toe, and reducing impacts of the storm surge. Dune recovery started in the month following the storm event and is still ongoing. It is characterised by the construction of "secondary" embryo dunes, which recovered at an average rate of 4-4.5 cm per month, although average monthly volume changes varied from - 1 to 2 m 3.m - 1 . These embryo dunes accreted due to a large aeolian sand supply from the upper tidal beach to the existing foredune. These dune-construction processes were facilitated by growth of vegetation on low-profile embryo dunes promoting backshore accretion. After more than two years of survey, the sediment budget of the beach/dune system showed that more than 10,000 m 3 has been lost by the upper tidal beach. We suggest that seaward return currents generated during the storm of 10th March 2008 are responsible for offshore sediment transport. Reconstitution of the equilibrium beach profile following the storm event may therefore have generated cross-shore sediment redistribution inducing net erosion in the tidal zone.

Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2016-12-01

Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach ramps.

Variability in runoff fluxes of dissolved and particulate carbon and nitrogen from two watersheds of different tree species during intense storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Mi-Hee; Payeur-Poirier, Jean-Lionel; Park, Ji-Hyung; Matzner, Egbert

2016-09-01

Heavy storm events may increase the amount of organic matter in runoff from forested watersheds as well as the relation of dissolved to particulate organic matter. This study evaluated the effects of monsoon storm events on the runoff fluxes and on the composition of dissolved (< 0.45 µm) and particulate (0.7 µm to 1 mm) organic carbon and nitrogen (DOC, DON, POC, PON) in a mixed coniferous/deciduous (mixed watershed) and a deciduous forested watershed (deciduous watershed) in South Korea. During storm events, DOC concentrations in runoff increased with discharge, while DON concentrations remained almost constant. DOC, DON and NO3-N fluxes in runoff increased linearly with discharge pointing to changing flow paths from deeper to upper soil layers at high discharge, whereas nonlinear responses of POC and PON fluxes were observed likely due to the origin of particulate matter from the erosion of mineral soil along the stream benches. The integrated C and N fluxes in runoff over the 2-month study period were in the order of DOC > POC and NO3-N > DON > PON. The integrated DOC fluxes in runoff during the study period were much larger at the deciduous watershed (16 kg C ha-1) than at the mixed watershed (7 kg C ha-1), while the integrated NO3-N fluxes were higher at the mixed watershed (5.2 kg N ha-1) than at the deciduous watershed (2.9 kg N ha-1). The latter suggests a larger N uptake by deciduous trees. Integrated fluxes of POC and PON were similar at both watersheds. The composition of organic matter in soils and runoff indicates that the contribution of near-surface flow to runoff was larger at the deciduous than at the mixed watershed. Our results demonstrate different responses of particulate and dissolved C and N in runoff to storm events as a combined effect of tree species composition and watershed specific flow paths.

Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.

2000-01-01

Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.

Influence of Convective Effect of Solar Winds on the CME Transit Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lu-yuan

2017-10-01

Based on an empirical model for predicting the transit time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) proposed by Gopalswamy, 52 CME events which are related to the geomagnetic storms of Dst < -50 nT, and 10 CME events which caused extremely strong geomagnetic storms (Dst < -200 nT) in 1996- 2007 are selected, and combined with the observational data of the interplanetary solar winds that collected by the ACE satellite at 1AU, to analyze the influence of convective effect of ambient solar winds on the prediction of the CME transit time when it arrives at a place of 1 AU. After taking the convective effect of ambient solar winds into account, the standard deviation of predictions is reduced from 16.5 to 11.4 hours for the 52 CME events, and the prediction error is less than 15 hours for 68% of these events; while the standard deviation of predictions is reduced from 10.6 to 6.5 hours for the 10 CME events that caused extremely strong geomagnetic storms, and the prediction error is less than 5 hours for 6 of the 10 events. These results show that taking the convective effect of ambient solar winds into account can reduce the standard deviation of the predicted CME transit time, hence the convective effect of solar winds plays an important role for predicting the transit times of CME events.

Precipitation in Santa Barbara, CA on varying timescales and the relationships with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, S. M.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.

2013-12-01

This study aimed to understand the patterns and variations of extreme precipitation events that occur in Santa Barbara County and determine the relationships with various phenomena that affect the region. Santa Barbara, CA is an area with complex topography that is disposed to numerous hazard events including landslides and flooding, particularly during the region's rainy season (Nov.-Apr.). These incidents are especially frequent in the seasons after fire-events, another hazard common to the region. In addition, Santa Barbara is affected by several tropical phenomena that influence precipitation on varying timescales including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). It is well known that ENSO and the MJO influence storms that occur in southern California through processes such as the modulation of the upper level jet and the low level moisture flux. ARs have been revealed to be responsible for the movement of large quantities of water vapor from tropical areas to the midlatitudes and have been linked to high-intensity storms throughout the western coast of North America. We examined rainy season (Nov.-Apr.) precipitation within Santa Barbara County using hourly rainfall data spanning approximately forty years (~1971-2010) from seven, local, rain gauge stations. The distributions as well as totals of precipitation on varying timescales (hourly, daily, seasonal, and yearly) were defined for specified intensities of rainfall based upon the 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Persistence, expressed as the number of consecutive hours (or days) including intense precipitation defined according to the percentiles, was investigated on the hourly and daily timescales. In addition, specified storm episodes identified in this study were examined with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission in order to assess the spatial features of high-intensity storms. Results from this analysis will be used in future research to investigate the characteristics of mesoscale convective systems that occur within the region. We demonstrate that low-intensity events (i.e. measurements categorized at or below the 75th percentile in terms of intensity) primarily comprise a collection of many single, short-duration precipitation events. On the other hand, events classified at or above the 90th percentile were often observed during long-duration storm episodes. This indicates that high-intensity precipitation is likely to be a component of a large storm and is unlikely to occur as a single, unaccompanied event, whereas low-intensity events may occur with or without other accompanying events. The long-term trends and patterns of precipitation were also compared with records of ENSO, the MJO, and ARs. Additionally, we show that the topography of region is an important geographic feature that affects both the intensity as well as the duration of extreme precipitation events. This research is supposed to contribute to the mitigation of hazardous events that affect Santa Barbara by contributing to the knowledge and predictability of extreme precipitation events for the region.

Establishing Design Storm Values from Climate Models in Coastal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic interactions of atmospheric and hydrological processes result in large spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and wind speed in coastal storm events under both current and future climates. This variability can impact the design and sustainability of water infrastructure ...

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos , Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L−1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m−2 h−1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Magnetospheric conditions for sawtooth event development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noah, M. A.; Burke, W. J.

2014-04-01

This paper addresses two topics concerning the magnetospheric conditions that allow sawtooth events (STEs) to develop during "nonstorm" intervals yet fail to yield them during many intense/super storms. A statistical analysis by Cai et al. (2011) reported that while only 5.4% of STEs occurred outside the context of magnetic storms, their occurrence rate during intense storms was just 63.5%. They concluded that (1) STEs are not necessarily storm time phenomena and (2) particular interplanetary conditions are needed to drive the class of storms in which STEs are generated. Traces of Sym-H indices and cross polar cap potentials during "nonstorm" STEs indicate that ring current energy remained above normal, quiet time values and open flux was continually being transferred to the magnetotail. We combined two independently generated lists of intense/super storms from the 1996 to 2007 period and found that 46 of them did not appear on the STE list of Cai et al. (2011). They divide three categories of storms in which (1) information needed to establish the presence/absence of STEs is insufficient, (2) STE signatures were present but overlooked, and (3) the magnetopause moved earthward of 6.6 RE so that energetic particles cannot gradient-curvature drift to geosynchronous satellites in the magnetosheath near local noon. We conclude that STE identification criteria be expanded to include compressed cases in which quasiperiodic nightside injections occur. Super storms with no nightside injections are attributed to episodes of severe ring current inflation of the inner magnetosphere that inhibited the formation of sustained near-Earth neutral lines.

Controls of event-based nutrient transport within nested headwater agricultural watersheds of the western Lake Erie basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Mark R.; Livingston, Stanley J.; Penn, Chad J.; Smith, Douglas R.; King, Kevin W.; Huang, Chi-hua

2018-04-01

Understanding the processes controlling nutrient delivery in headwater agricultural watersheds is essential for predicting and mitigating eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in receiving surface waters. The objective of this study was to elucidate nutrient transport pathways and examine key components driving nutrient delivery processes during storm events in four nested agricultural watersheds (298-19,341 ha) in the western Lake Erie basin with poorly drained soils and an extensive artificial drainage network typical of the Midwestern U.S. Concentration-discharge hysteresis patterns of nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and particulate phosphorus (PP) occurring during 47 storm events over a 6 year period (2004-2009) were evaluated. An assessment of the factors producing nutrient hysteresis was completed following a factor analysis on a suite of measured environmental variables representing the fluvial and wider watershed conditions prior to, and during the monitored storm events. Results showed the artificial drainage network (i.e., surface tile inlets and subsurface tile drains) in these watersheds was the primary flow pathway for nutrient delivery to streams, but nutrient behavior and export during storm events was regulated by the flow paths to and the intensity of the drainage network, the availability of nutrients, and the relative contributions of upland and in-stream nutrient sources. Potential sources and flow pathways for transport varied among NO3-N, PP, and DRP with results underscoring the challenge of mitigating nutrient loss in these watersheds. Conservation practices addressing both nutrient management and hydrologic connectivity will likely be required to decrease nutrient loss in artificially drained landscapes.

The Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.

2013-12-01

A key goal for the space weather community is to define extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012 solar active region 1520 (~133°W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be >3000 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 144°W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 18 hours later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. We have posed the question of what would have happened if this huge interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the 20th Century (Dst ~ -500nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst=-1182nT. This is probably considerably larger than the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

Grain-size analysis and sediment dynamics of hurricane-induced event beds in a coastal New England pond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castagno, K. A.; Ruehr, S. A.; Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.

2017-12-01

Coastal populations have grown increasingly susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclone events as they grow in size, wealth, and infrastructure. Changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, augmented by a changing climate, pose an increasing threat of property damage and loss of life. Reconstructions of intense-hurricane landfalls from a series of southeastern New England sediment cores identify a series of events spanning the past 2,000 years. Though the frequency of these landfalls is well constrained, the intensity of these storms, particularly those for which no historical record exists, is not. This study analyzes the grain-size distribution of major storm event beds along a transect of sediment cores from a kettle pond in Falmouth, MA. The grain-size distribution of each event is determined using an image processing, size, and shape analyzer. The depositional patterns and changes in grain-size distribution in these fine-grained systems may both spatially and temporally reveal characteristics of both storm intensity and the nature of sediment deposition. An inverse-modeling technique using this kind of grain-size analysis to determine past storm intensity has been explored in back-barrier lagoon systems in the Caribbean, but limited research has assessed its utility to assess deposits from back-barrier ponds in the northeastern United States. Increases in hurricane intensity may be closely tied to increases in sea surface temperature. As such, research into these prehistoric intervals of increased frequency and/or intensity provides important insight into the current and future hurricane risks facing coastal communities in New England.

Digoxin Is Associated With Increased Shock Events and Electrical Storms in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators.

PubMed

Mina, George S; Acharya, Madan; Shepherd, Taylor; Gobrial, George; Tekeste, Michael; Watti, Hussam; Bhandari, Ruchi; Saini, Aditya; Reddy, Pratap; Dominic, Paari

2018-03-01

Recently, digoxin use has been found to associate with higher mortality. Yet, potential mechanisms by which digoxin use increases mortality remain unclear. Increased arrhythmogenicity from digoxin use is one possibility. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the relation between digoxin and shock events in patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). We performed a retrospective chart review of all patients with ICDs and at least 1 device interrogation at our institution between January 1, 2012, and January 1, 2015. We aimed to cover 1 year of interrogation period. Patients with heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or both were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on digoxin use, defined as use of digoxin for any period of time during ICD interrogation period. Incidence of ICD shock events and electrical storms and hospitalizations were compared between the 2 groups. The study included 202 patients. Of those, 55 patients were on digoxin and 147 were not on digoxin. Patients on digoxin were more likely to receive ICD shocks (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.01-6.18, P = .04) and have increased risk of electrical storms ( P = .02). Moreover, total hospitalizations were higher in digoxin users ( P = .02). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that digoxin use was an independent predictor of shock events (OR = 4.07, 95% CI = 1.43-11.58, P = .009). Digoxin is associated with increased shock events and electrical storms in patients with ICDs; however, large randomized controlled studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Two mechanisms of aquatic and terrestrial habitat change along an Alaskan Arctic coastline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Urban, Frank E.; Jorgenson, M. Torre

2010-01-01

Arctic habitats at the interface between land and sea are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The northern Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (N-TLSA), a coastal plain ecosystem along the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska, provides habitat for migratory waterbirds, caribou, and potentially, denning polar bears. The 60-km coastline of N-TLSA is experiencing increasing rates of coastline erosion and storm surge flooding far inland resulting in lake drainage and conversion of freshwater lakes to estuaries. These physical mechanisms are affecting upland tundra as well. To better understand how these processes are affecting habitat, we analyzed long-term observational records coupled with recent short-term monitoring. Nearly the entire coastline has accelerating rates of erosion ranging from 6 m/year from 1955 to 1979 and most recently peaking at 17 m/year from 2007 to 2009, yet an intensive monitoring site along a higher bluff (3–6 masl) suggested high interannual variability. The frequency and magnitude of storm events appears to be increasing along this coastline and these patterns correspond to a greater number of lake tapping and flooding events since 2000. For the entire N-TLSA, we estimate that 6% of the landscape consists of salt-burned tundra, while 41% is prone to storm surge flooding. This offset may indicate the relative frequency of low-magnitude flood events along the coastal fringe. Monitoring of coastline lakes confirms that moderate westerly storms create extensive flooding, while easterly storms have negligible effects on lakes and low-lying tundra. This study of two interacting physical mechanisms, coastal erosion and storm surge flooding, provides an important example of the complexities and data needs for predicting habitat change and biological responses along Arctic land–ocean interfaces.

Factors Affecting Source-Water Quality after Disturbance of Forests by Wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S. F.; Martin, D. A.; McCleskey, R. B.; Writer, J. H.

2015-12-01

Forests yield high-quality water supplies to communities throughout the world, in part because forest cover reduces flooding and the consequent transport of suspended and dissolved constituents to surface water. Disturbance by wildfire reduces or eliminates forest cover, leaving watersheds susceptible to increased surface runoff during storms and reduced ability to retain contaminants. We assessed water-quality response to hydrologic events for three years after a wildfire in the Fourmile Creek Watershed, near Boulder, Colorado, and found that hydrologic and geochemical responses downstream of a burned area were primarily driven by small, brief convective storms that had relatively high, but not unusual, rainfall intensity. Total suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon, nitrate, and manganese concentrations were 10-156 times higher downstream of a burned area compared to upstream, and water quality was sufficiently impaired to pose water-treatment concerns. The response in both concentration and yield of water-quality constituents differed depending on source availability and dominant watershed processes controlling the constituent. For example, while all constituent concentrations were highest during storm events, annual sediment yields downstream of the burned area were controlled by storm events and subsequent mobilization, whereas dissolved organic carbon yields were more dependent on spring runoff from upstream areas. The watershed response was affected by a legacy of historical disturbance: the watershed had been recovering from extensive disturbance by mining, railroad and road development, logging, and fires in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and we observed extensive erosion of mine waste in response to these summer storms. Therefore, both storm characteristics and historical disturbance in a burned watershed must be considered when evaluating the role of wildfire on water quality.

A Bulk Microphysics Parameterization with Multiple Ice Precipitation Categories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straka, Jerry M.; Mansell, Edward R.

2005-04-01

A single-moment bulk microphysics scheme with multiple ice precipitation categories is described. It has 2 liquid hydrometeor categories (cloud droplets and rain) and 10 ice categories that are characterized by habit, size, and density—two ice crystal habits (column and plate), rimed cloud ice, snow (ice crystal aggregates), three categories of graupel with different densities and intercepts, frozen drops, small hail, and large hail. The concept of riming history is implemented for conversions among the graupel and frozen drops categories. The multiple precipitation ice categories allow a range of particle densities and fall velocities for simulating a variety of convective storms with minimal parameter tuning. The scheme is applied to two cases—an idealized continental multicell storm that demonstrates the ice precipitation process, and a small Florida maritime storm in which the warm rain process is important.

Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, V. L.; Wiskerchen, M. J.

1975-01-01

A study has been conducted of a large number of geomagnetic storms occurring during the period from 1966 to 1970. Questions of data selection are discussed and the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field during the initial phase is examined. Small-scale interplanetary fields during the initial phase are also considered, taking into account important features of small-scale variations in the interplanetary field and plasma for three storms. Details concerning 23 geomagnetic storms and the interplanetary magnetic field are presented in a table. A study of the initial phase of these storms indicates that in most of these events, the solar-ecliptic Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward when the main phase decrease begins.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Numerical simulation diagnostics of a flash flood event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samman, Ahmad

On 26 January 2011, a severe storm hit the city of Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The storm resulted in heavy rainfall, which produced a flash flood in a short period of time. This event caused at least eleven fatalities and more than 114 injuries. Unfortunately, the observed rainfall data are limited to the weather station at King Abdul Aziz International airport, which is north of the city, while the most extreme precipitation occurred over the southern part of the city. This observation was useful to compare simulation result even though it does not reflect the severity of the event. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed at Colorado State University was used to study this storm event. RAMS simulations indicted that a quasi-stationary Mesoscale convective system developed over the city of Jeddah and lasted for several hours. It was the source of the huge amount of rainfall. The model computed a total rainfall of more than 110 mm in the southern part of the city, where the flash flood occurred. This precipitation estimation was confirmed by the actual observation of the weather radar. While the annual rainfall in Jeddah during the winter varies from 50 to 100 mm, the amount of the rainfall resulting from this storm event exceeded the climatological total annual rainfall. The simulation of this event showed that warm sea surface temperature, combined with high humidity in the lower atmosphere and a large amount of convective available potential energy (CAPE) provided a favorable environment for convection. It also showed the presence of a cyclonic system over the north and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, and a subtropical anti-cyclone over Northeastern Africa that contributed to cold air advection bringing cold air to the Jeddah area. In addition, an anti-cyclone (blocking) centered over east and southeastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea produced a low level jet over the southern part of the Red Sea, which transported large water vapor amounts over Jeddah. The simulation results showed that the main driver behind the storm was the interaction between these systems over the city of Jeddah (an urban heat island) that produced strong low-level convergence. Several sensitivity experiments were carried out showed that other variables could have contributed to storm severity as well. Those sensitivity experiments included several simulations in which the following variables were changed: physiographic properties were altered by removing the water surfaces, removing the urban heat island environment from the model, and changing the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei. The results of these sensitivity experiments showed that these properties have significant effects on the storm formation and severity.

A flood risk assessment and mapping for Riga city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bethers, U.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Timuhins, A.

2009-04-01

Riga (population ca. 800,000) is the capital of Latvia. The city is located at the southern coast of Gulf of Riga along the lower stretch of the River Daugava. The water bodies adjacent or within the territory of the city are the River Daugava itself, its connection (Bullupe) to another major river - Lielupe, several minor tributaries of the River Daugava, as well as an interconnected lake system of estuarine origin. The flow in the lower stretch of the River Daugava is regulated by Riga hydropower plant which is situated approx. 25 kilometers upstream the river mouth. The lowest 12 kilometers of the river channel is dredged to ensure the operation of the Riga Freeport. The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood risk situations, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarious of different return periods, (3) the building and calibration of the hydrodynamical mathematical model for the domain potentially vulnerable for flooding, (4) the calculation of flood events with different return period, and (5) the detailed (horizontal accuracy around 10 m) of the potentially flooded areas. The combination of storm surges in the southern part of Gulf of Riga with unfavorable regime of hydropower plant operation was found as the most dangerous flooding situation. The time series of water level at the mouth of the River Daugava was analysed for more than 130 year long time period. The significant trend was found in the annual peak water level. Five significant storm events were found in time period 2001-2007 which roughly correspond to storm surges with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The model storm events were created by scaling waterlevel and meteorological conditions during these selected events, and superposing them with hydropowerplant operation regime. The finite-element based shallow water model was built for the area, potentially vulnerable for flooding. Heterogeneous depth/terrain information from various sources was integrated in the model. The linear objects (watercourses, dams, etc.) of hydraulic importance were included in the model. The typical spatial resolution of approx. 50-100 m was reached with total number of finite elements around 250,000. The hydrodynamical model was calibrated on the basis of water level observations in 5 different locations during 5 selected real storm events. The hydrodynamics of the flood scenarious were calculated for the model storm situations. The importance of the dynamical modeling of flooded areas was shown for the domain with a complex channel system and typical length of storm event below 18 hours. The method for the mapping of the results of hydrodynamical calculations on the digital terrain map of much higher (10 m) spatial resolution was proposed and applied.

Landscape-Scale Analysis of Wetland Sediment Deposition from Four Tropical Cyclone Events

PubMed Central

Tweel, Andrew W.; Turner, R. Eugene

2012-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike deposited large quantities of sediment on coastal wetlands after making landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We sampled sediments deposited on the wetland surface throughout the entire Louisiana and Texas depositional surfaces of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and the Louisiana portion of Hurricane Ike. We used spatial interpolation to model the total amount and spatial distribution of inorganic sediment deposition from each storm. The sediment deposition on coastal wetlands was an estimated 68, 48, and 21 million metric tons from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Gustav, respectively. The spatial distribution decreased in a similar manner with distance from the coast for all hurricanes, but the relationship with distance from the storm track was more variable between events. The southeast-facing Breton Sound estuary had significant storm-derived sediment deposition west of the storm track, whereas sediment deposition along the south-facing coastline occurred primarily east of the storm track. Sediment organic content, bulk density, and grain size also decreased significantly with distance from the coast, but were also more variable with respect to distance from the track. On average, eighty percent of the mineral deposition occurred within 20 km from the coast, and 58% was within 50 km of the track. These results highlight an important link between tropical cyclone events and coastal wetland sedimentation, and are useful in identifying a more complete sediment budget for coastal wetland soils. PMID:23185635

Influence of Asian dust storms on daily acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions.

PubMed

Teng, Joshua Chen-Yuan; Chan, Yun-Shan; Peng, Yu-I; Liu, Tsai-Ching

2016-01-01

This study was the first to explore the relationship between Asian dust storm events (ADS) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospital admissions by applying time series models. Nationwide population-based hospitalization claims data in Taiwan were used. There were 143,063 AMI admissions during 2000-2009. An autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) time series model was used to investigate the dynamic connection between AMI hospital admissions and ADS events. AMI hospitalizations significantly spiked on post-ADS day three. Among the total population, 3.2 more cases of AMI admissions occurred on post-ADS day three. When the data were stratified by age and gender, the same delayed effect was present in the male population, especially those aged 45-64 and over 74. Our study shows that although an ADS event does not cause an immediate incidence of AMI, storms may increase AMI incidence through a delayed effect. Hence, AMI prevention is not only important during a dust storm, but particularly so in subsequent days. During the days after an ADS, exposure to dust should be minimized by staying indoors as much as possible and by wearing a mask when exposure to dust is unavoidable. This is especially true for working and older adults. Nurses at local public health centers can increase awareness and promote public safety by providing health information to local communities regarding the link between dust storms and AMI. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.