Identification of predictive markers of cytarabine response in AML by integrative analysis of gene-expression profiles with multiple phenotypes

PubMed Central

Lamba, Jatinder K; Crews, Kristine R; Pounds, Stanley B; Cao, Xueyuan; Gandhi, Varsha; Plunkett, William; Razzouk, Bassem I; Lamba, Vishal; Baker, Sharyn D; Raimondi, Susana C; Campana, Dario; Pui, Ching-Hon; Downing, James R; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E; Ribeiro, Raul C

2011-01-01

Aim To identify gene-expression signatures predicting cytarabine response by an integrative analysis of multiple clinical and pharmacological end points in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. Materials & methods We performed an integrated analysis to associate the gene expression of diagnostic bone marrow blasts from acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients treated in the discovery set (AML97; n = 42) and in the independent validation set (AML02; n = 46) with multiple clinical and pharmacological end points. Based on prior biological knowledge, we defined a gene to show a therapeutically beneficial (detrimental) pattern of association of its expression positively (negatively) correlated with favorable phenotypes such as intracellular cytarabine 5´-triphosphate levels, morphological response and event-free survival, and negatively (positively) correlated with unfavorable end points such as post-cytarabine DNA synthesis levels, minimal residual disease and cytarabine LC50. Results We identified 240 probe sets predicting a therapeutically beneficial pattern and 97 predicting detrimental pattern (p ≤ 0.005) in the discovery set. Of these, 60 were confirmed in the independent validation set. The validated probe sets correspond to genes involved in PIK3/PTEN/AKT/mTOR signaling, G-protein-coupled receptor signaling and leukemogenesis. This suggests that targeting these pathways as potential pharmacogenomic and therapeutic candidates could be useful for improving treatment outcomes in AML. Conclusion This study illustrates the power of integrated data analysis of genomic data as well as multiple clinical and pharmacologic end points in the identification of genes and pathways of biological relevance. PMID:21449673

Meta-analysis of diagnostic test data: a bivariate Bayesian modeling approach.

PubMed

Verde, Pablo E

2010-12-30

In the last decades, the amount of published results on clinical diagnostic tests has expanded very rapidly. The counterpart to this development has been the formal evaluation and synthesis of diagnostic results. However, published results present substantial heterogeneity and they can be regarded as so far removed from the classical domain of meta-analysis, that they can provide a rather severe test of classical statistical methods. Recently, bivariate random effects meta-analytic methods, which model the pairs of sensitivities and specificities, have been presented from the classical point of view. In this work a bivariate Bayesian modeling approach is presented. This approach substantially extends the scope of classical bivariate methods by allowing the structural distribution of the random effects to depend on multiple sources of variability. Meta-analysis is summarized by the predictive posterior distributions for sensitivity and specificity. This new approach allows, also, to perform substantial model checking, model diagnostic and model selection. Statistical computations are implemented in the public domain statistical software (WinBUGS and R) and illustrated with real data examples. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative evaluation of statistical and mechanistic models of Escherichia coli at beaches in southern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safaie, Ammar; Wendzel, Aaron; Ge, Zhongfu; Nevers, Meredith; Whitman, Richard L.; Corsi, Steven R.; Phanikumar, Mantha S.

2016-01-01

Statistical and mechanistic models are popular tools for predicting the levels of indicator bacteria at recreational beaches. Researchers tend to use one class of model or the other, and it is difficult to generalize statements about their relative performance due to differences in how the models are developed, tested, and used. We describe a cooperative modeling approach for freshwater beaches impacted by point sources in which insights derived from mechanistic modeling were used to further improve the statistical models and vice versa. The statistical models provided a basis for assessing the mechanistic models which were further improved using probability distributions to generate high-resolution time series data at the source, long-term “tracer” transport modeling based on observed electrical conductivity, better assimilation of meteorological data, and the use of unstructured-grids to better resolve nearshore features. This approach resulted in improved models of comparable performance for both classes including a parsimonious statistical model suitable for real-time predictions based on an easily measurable environmental variable (turbidity). The modeling approach outlined here can be used at other sites impacted by point sources and has the potential to improve water quality predictions resulting in more accurate estimates of beach closures.

Prediction of crime occurrence from multi-modal data using deep learning

PubMed Central

Kang, Hyeon-Woo

2017-01-01

In recent years, various studies have been conducted on the prediction of crime occurrences. This predictive capability is intended to assist in crime prevention by facilitating effective implementation of police patrols. Previous studies have used data from multiple domains such as demographics, economics, and education. Their prediction models treat data from different domains equally. These methods have problems in crime occurrence prediction, such as difficulty in discovering highly nonlinear relationships, redundancies, and dependencies between multiple datasets. In order to enhance crime prediction models, we consider environmental context information, such as broken windows theory and crime prevention through environmental design. In this paper, we propose a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network (DNN). Our dataset consists of data collected from various online databases of crime statistics, demographic and meteorological data, and images in Chicago, Illinois. Prior to generating training data, we select crime-related data by conducting statistical analyses. Finally, we train our DNN, which consists of the following four kinds of layers: spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers. Coupled with crucial data extracted from various domains, our fusion DNN is a product of an efficient decision-making process that statistically analyzes data redundancy. Experimental performance results show that our DNN model is more accurate in predicting crime occurrence than other prediction models. PMID:28437486

Prediction of crime occurrence from multi-modal data using deep learning.

PubMed

Kang, Hyeon-Woo; Kang, Hang-Bong

2017-01-01

In recent years, various studies have been conducted on the prediction of crime occurrences. This predictive capability is intended to assist in crime prevention by facilitating effective implementation of police patrols. Previous studies have used data from multiple domains such as demographics, economics, and education. Their prediction models treat data from different domains equally. These methods have problems in crime occurrence prediction, such as difficulty in discovering highly nonlinear relationships, redundancies, and dependencies between multiple datasets. In order to enhance crime prediction models, we consider environmental context information, such as broken windows theory and crime prevention through environmental design. In this paper, we propose a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network (DNN). Our dataset consists of data collected from various online databases of crime statistics, demographic and meteorological data, and images in Chicago, Illinois. Prior to generating training data, we select crime-related data by conducting statistical analyses. Finally, we train our DNN, which consists of the following four kinds of layers: spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers. Coupled with crucial data extracted from various domains, our fusion DNN is a product of an efficient decision-making process that statistically analyzes data redundancy. Experimental performance results show that our DNN model is more accurate in predicting crime occurrence than other prediction models.

New statistical scission-point model to predict fission fragment observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaître, Jean-François; Panebianco, Stefano; Sida, Jean-Luc; Hilaire, Stéphane; Heinrich, Sophie

2015-09-01

The development of high performance computing facilities makes possible a massive production of nuclear data in a full microscopic framework. Taking advantage of the individual potential calculations of more than 7000 nuclei, a new statistical scission-point model, called SPY, has been developed. It gives access to the absolute available energy at the scission point, which allows the use of a parameter-free microcanonical statistical description to calculate the distributions and the mean values of all fission observables. SPY uses the richness of microscopy in a rather simple theoretical framework, without any parameter except the scission-point definition, to draw clear answers based on perfect knowledge of the ingredients involved in the model, with very limited computing cost.

Transfer Student Success: Educationally Purposeful Activities Predictive of Undergraduate GPA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fauria, Renee M.; Fuller, Matthew B.

2015-01-01

Researchers evaluated the effects of Educationally Purposeful Activities (EPAs) on transfer and nontransfer students' cumulative GPAs. Hierarchical, linear, and multiple regression models yielded seven statistically significant educationally purposeful items that influenced undergraduate student GPAs. Statistically significant positive EPAs for…

Laboratory evaluation of the pointing stability of the ASPS Vernier System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The annular suspension and pointing system (ASPS) is an end-mount experiment pointing system designed for use in the space shuttle. The results of the ASPS Vernier System (AVS) pointing stability tests conducted in a laboratory environment are documented. A simulated zero-G suspension was used to support the test payload in the laboratory. The AVS and the suspension were modelled and incorporated into a simulation of the laboratory test. Error sources were identified and pointing stability sensitivities were determined via simulation. Statistical predictions of laboratory test performance were derived and compared to actual laboratory test results. The predicted mean pointing stability during simulated shuttle disturbances was 1.22 arc seconds; the actual mean laboratory test pointing stability was 1.36 arc seconds. The successful prediction of laboratory test results provides increased confidence in the analytical understanding of the AVS magnetic bearing technology and allows confident prediction of in-flight performance. Computer simulations of ASPS, operating in the shuttle disturbance environment, predict in-flight pointing stability errors less than 0.01 arc seconds.

[Statistical prediction methods in violence risk assessment and its application].

PubMed

Liu, Yuan-Yuan; Hu, Jun-Mei; Yang, Min; Li, Xiao-Song

2013-06-01

It is an urgent global problem how to improve the violence risk assessment. As a necessary part of risk assessment, statistical methods have remarkable impacts and effects. In this study, the predicted methods in violence risk assessment from the point of statistics are reviewed. The application of Logistic regression as the sample of multivariate statistical model, decision tree model as the sample of data mining technique, and neural networks model as the sample of artificial intelligence technology are all reviewed. This study provides data in order to contribute the further research of violence risk assessment.

Prediction of Multiple-Trait and Multiple-Environment Genomic Data Using Recommender Systems.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José C; Mota-Sanchez, David; Estrada-González, Fermín; Gillberg, Jussi; Singh, Ravi; Mondal, Suchismita; Juliana, Philomin

2018-01-04

In genomic-enabled prediction, the task of improving the accuracy of the prediction of lines in environments is difficult because the available information is generally sparse and usually has low correlations between traits. In current genomic selection, although researchers have a large amount of information and appropriate statistical models to process it, there is still limited computing efficiency to do so. Although some statistical models are usually mathematically elegant, many of them are also computationally inefficient, and they are impractical for many traits, lines, environments, and years because they need to sample from huge normal multivariate distributions. For these reasons, this study explores two recommender systems: item-based collaborative filtering (IBCF) and the matrix factorization algorithm (MF) in the context of multiple traits and multiple environments. The IBCF and MF methods were compared with two conventional methods on simulated and real data. Results of the simulated and real data sets show that the IBCF technique was slightly better in terms of prediction accuracy than the two conventional methods and the MF method when the correlation was moderately high. The IBCF technique is very attractive because it produces good predictions when there is high correlation between items (environment-trait combinations) and its implementation is computationally feasible, which can be useful for plant breeders who deal with very large data sets. Copyright © 2018 Montesinos-Lopez et al.

Prediction of Multiple-Trait and Multiple-Environment Genomic Data Using Recommender Systems

PubMed Central

Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José C.; Mota-Sanchez, David; Estrada-González, Fermín; Gillberg, Jussi; Singh, Ravi; Mondal, Suchismita; Juliana, Philomin

2018-01-01

In genomic-enabled prediction, the task of improving the accuracy of the prediction of lines in environments is difficult because the available information is generally sparse and usually has low correlations between traits. In current genomic selection, although researchers have a large amount of information and appropriate statistical models to process it, there is still limited computing efficiency to do so. Although some statistical models are usually mathematically elegant, many of them are also computationally inefficient, and they are impractical for many traits, lines, environments, and years because they need to sample from huge normal multivariate distributions. For these reasons, this study explores two recommender systems: item-based collaborative filtering (IBCF) and the matrix factorization algorithm (MF) in the context of multiple traits and multiple environments. The IBCF and MF methods were compared with two conventional methods on simulated and real data. Results of the simulated and real data sets show that the IBCF technique was slightly better in terms of prediction accuracy than the two conventional methods and the MF method when the correlation was moderately high. The IBCF technique is very attractive because it produces good predictions when there is high correlation between items (environment–trait combinations) and its implementation is computationally feasible, which can be useful for plant breeders who deal with very large data sets. PMID:29097376

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Millennia; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.

2016-01-01

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

In silico prediction of toxicity of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis by using genetic algorithm and decision tree-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Abbasitabar, Fatemeh; Zare-Shahabadi, Vahid

2017-04-01

Risk assessment of chemicals is an important issue in environmental protection; however, there is a huge lack of experimental data for a large number of end-points. The experimental determination of toxicity of chemicals involves high costs and time-consuming process. In silico tools such as quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (QSTR) models, which are constructed on the basis of computational molecular descriptors, can predict missing data for toxic end-points for existing or even not yet synthesized chemicals. Phenol derivatives are known to be aquatic pollutants. With this background, we aimed to develop an accurate and reliable QSTR model for the prediction of toxicity of 206 phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis. A multiple linear regression (MLR)-based QSTR was obtained using a powerful descriptor selection tool named Memorized_ACO algorithm. Statistical parameters of the model were 0.72 and 0.68 for R training 2 and R test 2 , respectively. To develop a high-quality QSTR model, classification and regression tree (CART) was employed. Two approaches were considered: (1) phenols were classified into different modes of action using CART and (2) the phenols in the training set were partitioned to several subsets by a tree in such a manner that in each subset, a high-quality MLR could be developed. For the first approach, the statistical parameters of the resultant QSTR model were improved to 0.83 and 0.75 for R training 2 and R test 2 , respectively. Genetic algorithm was employed in the second approach to obtain an optimal tree, and it was shown that the final QSTR model provided excellent prediction accuracy for the training and test sets (R training 2 and R test 2 were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively). The mean absolute error for the test set was computed as 0.1615. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for automatic feature points extraction of human vertebrae three-dimensional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhen; Wu, Junsheng

2017-05-01

A method for automatic extraction of the feature points of the human vertebrae three-dimensional model is presented. Firstly, the statistical model of vertebrae feature points is established based on the results of manual vertebrae feature points extraction. Then anatomical axial analysis of the vertebrae model is performed according to the physiological and morphological characteristics of the vertebrae. Using the axial information obtained from the analysis, a projection relationship between the statistical model and the vertebrae model to be extracted is established. According to the projection relationship, the statistical model is matched with the vertebrae model to get the estimated position of the feature point. Finally, by analyzing the curvature in the spherical neighborhood with the estimated position of feature points, the final position of the feature points is obtained. According to the benchmark result on multiple test models, the mean relative errors of feature point positions are less than 5.98%. At more than half of the positions, the error rate is less than 3% and the minimum mean relative error is 0.19%, which verifies the effectiveness of the method.

Statistical analysis of water-quality data containing multiple detection limits: S-language software for regression on order statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, L.; Helsel, D.

2005-01-01

Trace contaminants in water, including metals and organics, often are measured at sufficiently low concentrations to be reported only as values below the instrument detection limit. Interpretation of these "less thans" is complicated when multiple detection limits occur. Statistical methods for multiply censored, or multiple-detection limit, datasets have been developed for medical and industrial statistics, and can be employed to estimate summary statistics or model the distributions of trace-level environmental data. We describe S-language-based software tools that perform robust linear regression on order statistics (ROS). The ROS method has been evaluated as one of the most reliable procedures for developing summary statistics of multiply censored data. It is applicable to any dataset that has 0 to 80% of its values censored. These tools are a part of a software library, or add-on package, for the R environment for statistical computing. This library can be used to generate ROS models and associated summary statistics, plot modeled distributions, and predict exceedance probabilities of water-quality standards. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarnetske, P.L.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.

2007-01-01

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

An Oracle-based co-training framework for writer identification in offline handwriting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porwal, Utkarsh; Rajan, Sreeranga; Govindaraju, Venu

2012-01-01

State-of-the-art techniques for writer identification have been centered primarily on enhancing the performance of the system for writer identification. Machine learning algorithms have been used extensively to improve the accuracy of such system assuming sufficient amount of data is available for training. Little attention has been paid to the prospect of harnessing the information tapped in a large amount of un-annotated data. This paper focuses on co-training based framework that can be used for iterative labeling of the unlabeled data set exploiting the independence between the multiple views (features) of the data. This paradigm relaxes the assumption of sufficiency of the data available and tries to generate labeled data from unlabeled data set along with improving the accuracy of the system. However, performance of co-training based framework is dependent on the effectiveness of the algorithm used for the selection of data points to be added in the labeled set. We propose an Oracle based approach for data selection that learns the patterns in the score distribution of classes for labeled data points and then predicts the labels (writers) of the unlabeled data point. This method for selection statistically learns the class distribution and predicts the most probable class unlike traditional selection algorithms which were based on heuristic approaches. We conducted experiments on publicly available IAM dataset and illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Cosmology constraints from shear peak statistics in Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data

DOE PAGES

Kacprzak, T.; Kirk, D.; Friedrich, O.; ...

2016-08-19

Shear peak statistics has gained a lot of attention recently as a practical alternative to the two point statistics for constraining cosmological parameters. We perform a shear peak statistics analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification (SV) data, using weak gravitational lensing measurements from a 139 degmore » $^2$ field. We measure the abundance of peaks identified in aperture mass maps, as a function of their signal-to-noise ratio, in the signal-to-noise range $$0<\\mathcal S / \\mathcal N<4$$. To predict the peak counts as a function of cosmological parameters we use a suite of $N$-body simulations spanning 158 models with varying $$\\Omega_{\\rm m}$$ and $$\\sigma_8$$, fixing $w = -1$, $$\\Omega_{\\rm b} = 0.04$$, $h = 0.7$ and $$n_s=1$$, to which we have applied the DES SV mask and redshift distribution. In our fiducial analysis we measure $$\\sigma_{8}(\\Omega_{\\rm m}/0.3)^{0.6}=0.77 \\pm 0.07$$, after marginalising over the shear multiplicative bias and the error on the mean redshift of the galaxy sample. We introduce models of intrinsic alignments, blending, and source contamination by cluster members. These models indicate that peaks with $$\\mathcal S / \\mathcal N>4$$ would require significant corrections, which is why we do not include them in our analysis. We compare our results to the cosmological constraints from the two point analysis on the SV field and find them to be in good agreement in both the central value and its uncertainty. As a result, we discuss prospects for future peak statistics analysis with upcoming DES data.« less

A simple rapid approach using coupled multivariate statistical methods, GIS and trajectory models to delineate areas of common oil spill risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillen, George; Rainey, Gail; Morin, Michelle

2004-04-01

Currently, the Minerals Management Service uses the Oil Spill Risk Analysis model (OSRAM) to predict the movement of potential oil spills greater than 1000 bbl originating from offshore oil and gas facilities. OSRAM generates oil spill trajectories using meteorological and hydrological data input from either actual physical measurements or estimates generated from other hydrological models. OSRAM and many other models produce output matrices of average, maximum and minimum contact probabilities to specific landfall or target segments (columns) from oil spills at specific points (rows). Analysts and managers are often interested in identifying geographic areas or groups of facilities that pose similar risks to specific targets or groups of targets if a spill occurred. Unfortunately, due to the potentially large matrix generated by many spill models, this question is difficult to answer without the use of data reduction and visualization methods. In our study we utilized a multivariate statistical method called cluster analysis to group areas of similar risk based on potential distribution of landfall target trajectory probabilities. We also utilized ArcView™ GIS to display spill launch point groupings. The combination of GIS and multivariate statistical techniques in the post-processing of trajectory model output is a powerful tool for identifying and delineating areas of similar risk from multiple spill sources. We strongly encourage modelers, statistical and GIS software programmers to closely collaborate to produce a more seamless integration of these technologies and approaches to analyzing data. They are complimentary methods that strengthen the overall assessment of spill risks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kacprzak, T.; Kirk, D.; Friedrich, O.

Shear peak statistics has gained a lot of attention recently as a practical alternative to the two point statistics for constraining cosmological parameters. We perform a shear peak statistics analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification (SV) data, using weak gravitational lensing measurements from a 139 degmore » $^2$ field. We measure the abundance of peaks identified in aperture mass maps, as a function of their signal-to-noise ratio, in the signal-to-noise range $$0<\\mathcal S / \\mathcal N<4$$. To predict the peak counts as a function of cosmological parameters we use a suite of $N$-body simulations spanning 158 models with varying $$\\Omega_{\\rm m}$$ and $$\\sigma_8$$, fixing $w = -1$, $$\\Omega_{\\rm b} = 0.04$$, $h = 0.7$ and $$n_s=1$$, to which we have applied the DES SV mask and redshift distribution. In our fiducial analysis we measure $$\\sigma_{8}(\\Omega_{\\rm m}/0.3)^{0.6}=0.77 \\pm 0.07$$, after marginalising over the shear multiplicative bias and the error on the mean redshift of the galaxy sample. We introduce models of intrinsic alignments, blending, and source contamination by cluster members. These models indicate that peaks with $$\\mathcal S / \\mathcal N>4$$ would require significant corrections, which is why we do not include them in our analysis. We compare our results to the cosmological constraints from the two point analysis on the SV field and find them to be in good agreement in both the central value and its uncertainty. As a result, we discuss prospects for future peak statistics analysis with upcoming DES data.« less

An Assessment of the Impact of Hafting on Paleoindian Point Variability

PubMed Central

Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J.; Kilby, J. David; Huckell, Bruce B.; Collard, Mark

2012-01-01

It has long been argued that the form of North American Paleoindian points was affected by hafting. According to this hypothesis, hafting constrained point bases such that they are less variable than point blades. The results of several studies have been claimed to be consistent with this hypothesis. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of these results. None of the studies employed statistical tests, and all of them focused on points recovered from kill and camp sites, which makes it difficult to be certain that the differences in variability are the result of hafting rather than a consequence of resharpening. Here, we report a study in which we tested the predictions of the hafting hypothesis by statistically comparing the variability of different parts of Clovis points. We controlled for the potentially confounding effects of resharpening by analyzing largely unused points from caches as well as points from kill and camp sites. The results of our analyses were not consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis. We found that several blade characters and point thickness were no more variable than the base characters. Our results indicate that the hafting hypothesis does not hold for Clovis points and indicate that there is a need to test its applicability in relation to post-Clovis Paleoindian points. PMID:22666320

Computer program to minimize prediction error in models from experiments with 16 hypercube points and 0 to 6 center points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1982-01-01

A previous report described a backward deletion procedure of model selection that was optimized for minimum prediction error and which used a multiparameter combination of the F - distribution and an order statistics distribution of Cochran's. A computer program is described that applies the previously optimized procedure to real data. The use of the program is illustrated by examples.

SOME STATISTICAL ISSUES RELATED TO MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELING OF BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

As a fast and effective technique, the multiple linear regression (MLR) method has been widely used in modeling and prediction of beach bacteria concentrations. Among previous works on this subject, however, several issues were insufficiently or inconsistently addressed. Those is...

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

MODELING A MIXTURE: PBPK/PD APPROACHES FOR PREDICTING CHEMICAL INTERACTIONS.

EPA Science Inventory

Since environmental chemical exposures generally involve multiple chemicals, there are both regulatory and scientific drivers to develop methods to predict outcomes of these exposures. Even using efficient statistical and experimental designs, it is not possible to test in vivo a...

Identification of driving network of cellular differentiation from single sample time course gene expression data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ye; Wolanyk, Nathaniel; Ilker, Tunc; Gao, Shouguo; Wang, Xujing

Methods developed based on bifurcation theory have demonstrated their potential in driving network identification for complex human diseases, including the work by Chen, et al. Recently bifurcation theory has been successfully applied to model cellular differentiation. However, there one often faces a technical challenge in driving network prediction: time course cellular differentiation study often only contains one sample at each time point, while driving network prediction typically require multiple samples at each time point to infer the variation and interaction structures of candidate genes for the driving network. In this study, we investigate several methods to identify both the critical time point and the driving network through examination of how each time point affects the autocorrelation and phase locking. We apply these methods to a high-throughput sequencing (RNA-Seq) dataset of 42 subsets of thymocytes and mature peripheral T cells at multiple time points during their differentiation (GSE48138 from GEO). We compare the predicted driving genes with known transcription regulators of cellular differentiation. We will discuss the advantages and limitations of our proposed methods, as well as potential further improvements of our methods.

Prediction of Autism at 3 Years from Behavioural and Developmental Measures in High-Risk Infants: A Longitudinal Cross-Domain Classifier Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bussu, G.; Jones, E. J. H.; Charman, T.; Johnson, M. H.; Buitelaar, J. K.; Baron-Cohen, S.; Bedford, R.; Bolton, P.; Blasi, A.; Chandler, S.; Cheung, C.; Davies, K.; Elsabbagh, M.; Fernandes, J.; Gammer, I.; Garwood, H.; Gliga, T.; Guiraud, J.; Hudry, K.; Liew, M.; Lloyd-Fox, S.; Maris, H.; O'Hara, L.; Pasco, G.; Pickles, A.; Ribeiro, H.; Salomone, E.; Tucker, L.; Volein, A.

2018-01-01

We integrated multiple behavioural and developmental measures from multiple time-points using machine learning to improve early prediction of individual Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) outcome. We examined Mullen Scales of Early Learning, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, and early ASD symptoms between 8 and 36 months in high-risk siblings (HR; n…

A Simple Statistical Thermodynamics Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LoPresto, Michael C.

2010-01-01

Comparing the predicted and actual rolls of combinations of both two and three dice can help to introduce many of the basic concepts of statistical thermodynamics, including multiplicity, probability, microstates, and macrostates, and demonstrate that entropy is indeed a measure of randomness, that disordered states (those of higher entropy) are…

Noise limitations in optical linear algebra processors.

PubMed

Batsell, S G; Jong, T L; Walkup, J F; Krile, T F

1990-05-10

A general statistical noise model is presented for optical linear algebra processors. A statistical analysis which includes device noise, the multiplication process, and the addition operation is undertaken. We focus on those processes which are architecturally independent. Finally, experimental results which verify the analytical predictions are also presented.

Model for predicting the injury severity score.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

2015-07-01

To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  < 0.05. To select objective variables, the stepwise method was used. A total of 122 patients were included in this study. The formula for predicting the injury severity score (ISS) was as follows: ISS = 13.252-0.078(mean blood pressure) + 0.12(fibrin degradation products). The P -value of this formula from analysis of variance was <0.001, and the multiple correlation coefficient (R) was 0.739 (R 2  = 0.546). The multiple correlation coefficient adjusted for the degrees of freedom was 0.538. The Durbin-Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

Maximum Entropy, Word-Frequency, Chinese Characters, and Multiple Meanings

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiaoyong; Minnhagen, Petter

2015-01-01

The word-frequency distribution of a text written by an author is well accounted for by a maximum entropy distribution, the RGF (random group formation)-prediction. The RGF-distribution is completely determined by the a priori values of the total number of words in the text (M), the number of distinct words (N) and the number of repetitions of the most common word (kmax). It is here shown that this maximum entropy prediction also describes a text written in Chinese characters. In particular it is shown that although the same Chinese text written in words and Chinese characters have quite differently shaped distributions, they are nevertheless both well predicted by their respective three a priori characteristic values. It is pointed out that this is analogous to the change in the shape of the distribution when translating a given text to another language. Another consequence of the RGF-prediction is that taking a part of a long text will change the input parameters (M, N, kmax) and consequently also the shape of the frequency distribution. This is explicitly confirmed for texts written in Chinese characters. Since the RGF-prediction has no system-specific information beyond the three a priori values (M, N, kmax), any specific language characteristic has to be sought in systematic deviations from the RGF-prediction and the measured frequencies. One such systematic deviation is identified and, through a statistical information theoretical argument and an extended RGF-model, it is proposed that this deviation is caused by multiple meanings of Chinese characters. The effect is stronger for Chinese characters than for Chinese words. The relation between Zipf’s law, the Simon-model for texts and the present results are discussed. PMID:25955175

Use of personalized Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) in mental health studies

PubMed Central

Liu, Ying; ZENG, Donglin; WANG, Yuanjia

2014-01-01

Summary Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) are sequential decision rules tailored at each point where a clinical decision is made based on each patient’s time-varying characteristics and intermediate outcomes observed at earlier points in time. The complexity, patient heterogeneity, and chronicity of mental disorders call for learning optimal DTRs to dynamically adapt treatment to an individual’s response over time. The Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMARTs) design allows for estimating causal effects of DTRs. Modern statistical tools have been developed to optimize DTRs based on personalized variables and intermediate outcomes using rich data collected from SMARTs; these statistical methods can also be used to recommend tailoring variables for designing future SMART studies. This paper introduces DTRs and SMARTs using two examples in mental health studies, discusses two machine learning methods for estimating optimal DTR from SMARTs data, and demonstrates the performance of the statistical methods using simulated data. PMID:25642116

Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

PubMed

White, H; Racine, J

2001-01-01

We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

Statistical prediction of space motion sickness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reschke, Millard F.

1990-01-01

Studies designed to empirically examine the etiology of motion sickness to develop a foundation for enhancing its prediction are discussed. Topics addressed include early attempts to predict space motion sickness, multiple test data base that uses provocative and vestibular function tests, and data base subjects; reliability of provocative tests of motion sickness susceptibility; prediction of space motion sickness using linear discriminate analysis; and prediction of space motion sickness susceptibility using the logistic model.

Predicting perceptual quality of images in realistic scenario using deep filter banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weixia; Yan, Jia; Hu, Shiyong; Ma, Yang; Deng, Dexiang

2018-03-01

Classical image perceptual quality assessment models usually resort to natural scene statistic methods, which are based on an assumption that certain reliable statistical regularities hold on undistorted images and will be corrupted by introduced distortions. However, these models usually fail to accurately predict degradation severity of images in realistic scenarios since complex, multiple, and interactive authentic distortions usually appear on them. We propose a quality prediction model based on convolutional neural network. Quality-aware features extracted from filter banks of multiple convolutional layers are aggregated into the image representation. Furthermore, an easy-to-implement and effective feature selection strategy is used to further refine the image representation and finally a linear support vector regression model is trained to map image representation into images' subjective perceptual quality scores. The experimental results on benchmark databases present the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed model.

Research of maneuvering target prediction and tracking technology based on IMM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Zheng; Mao, Yao; Deng, Chao; Liu, Qiong; Chen, Jing

2016-09-01

Maneuvering target prediction and tracking technology is widely used in both military and civilian applications, the study of those technologies is all along the hotspot and difficulty. In the Electro-Optical acquisition-tracking-pointing system (ATP), the primary traditional maneuvering targets are ballistic target, large aircraft and other big targets. Those targets have the features of fast velocity and a strong regular trajectory and Kalman Filtering and polynomial fitting have good effects when they are used to track those targets. In recent years, the small unmanned aerial vehicles developed rapidly for they are small, nimble and simple operation. The small unmanned aerial vehicles have strong maneuverability in the observation system of ATP although they are close-in, slow and small targets. Moreover, those vehicles are under the manual operation, therefore, the acceleration of them changes greatly and they move erratically. So the prediction and tracking precision is low when traditional algorithms are used to track the maneuvering fly of those targets, such as speeding up, turning, climbing and so on. The interacting multiple model algorithm (IMM) use multiple models to match target real movement trajectory, there are interactions between each model. The IMM algorithm can switch model based on a Markov chain to adapt to the change of target movement trajectory, so it is suitable to solve the prediction and tracking problems of the small unmanned aerial vehicles because of the better adaptability of irregular movement. This paper has set up model set of constant velocity model (CV), constant acceleration model (CA), constant turning model (CT) and current statistical model. And the results of simulating and analyzing the real movement trajectory data of the small unmanned aerial vehicles show that the prediction and tracking technology based on the interacting multiple model algorithm can get relatively lower tracking error and improve tracking precision comparing with traditional algorithms.

ESTER HYDROLYSIS RATE CONSTANT PREDICTION FROM INFRARED INTERFEROGRAMS

EPA Science Inventory

A method for predicting reactivity parameters of organic chemicals from spectroscopic data is being developed to assist in assessing the environmental fate of pollutants. he prototype system, which employs multiple linear regression analysis using selected points from the Fourier...

INTRODUCTION TO A COMBINED MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND ARMA MODELING APPROACH FOR BEACH BACTERIA PREDICTION

EPA Science Inventory

Due to the complexity of the processes contributing to beach bacteria concentrations, many researchers rely on statistical modeling, among which multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling is most widely used. Despite its ease of use and interpretation, there may be time dependence...

Multiple Regression: A Leisurely Primer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daniel, Larry G.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.

Multiple regression is a useful statistical technique when the researcher is considering situations in which variables of interest are theorized to be multiply caused. It may also be useful in those situations in which the researchers is interested in studies of predictability of phenomena of interest. This paper provides an introduction to…

The probability density function (PDF) of Lagrangian Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birnir, B.

2012-12-01

The statistical theory of Lagrangian turbulence is derived from the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation. Assuming that the noise in fully-developed turbulence is a generic noise determined by the general theorems in probability, the central limit theorem and the large deviation principle, we are able to formulate and solve the Kolmogorov-Hopf equation for the invariant measure of the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations. The intermittency corrections to the scaling exponents of the structure functions require a multiplicative (multipling the fluid velocity) noise in the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation. We let this multiplicative noise, in the equation, consists of a simple (Poisson) jump process and then show how the Feynmann-Kac formula produces the log-Poissonian processes, found by She and Leveque, Waymire and Dubrulle. These log-Poissonian processes give the intermittency corrections that agree with modern direct Navier-Stokes simulations (DNS) and experiments. The probability density function (PDF) plays a key role when direct Navier-Stokes simulations or experimental results are compared to theory. The statistical theory of turbulence is determined, including the scaling of the structure functions of turbulence, by the invariant measure of the Navier-Stokes equation and the PDFs for the various statistics (one-point, two-point, N-point) can be obtained by taking the trace of the corresponding invariant measures. Hopf derived in 1952 a functional equation for the characteristic function (Fourier transform) of the invariant measure. In distinction to the nonlinear Navier-Stokes equation, this is a linear functional differential equation. The PDFs obtained from the invariant measures for the velocity differences (two-point statistics) are shown to be the four parameter generalized hyperbolic distributions, found by Barndorff-Nilsen. These PDF have heavy tails and a convex peak at the origin. A suitable projection of the Kolmogorov-Hopf equations is the differential equation determining the generalized hyperbolic distributions. Then we compare these PDFs with DNS results and experimental data.

A STATISTICAL MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR THE DETECTION, QUANTIFICATION, AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS

EPA Science Inventory

This study will provide a general methodology for integrating threshold information from multiple species ecological metrics, allow for prediction of changes of alternative stable states, and provide a risk assessment tool that can be applied to adaptive management. The integr...

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions From the Fifth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, Joseph H.

2013-01-01

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using a common grid sequence and multiple turbulence models for the June 2012 fifth Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing-body previously used for the 4th Drag Prediction Workshop. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

Statistical analysis of trypanosomes' motility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaburdaev, Vasily; Uppaluri, Sravanti; Pfohl, Thomas; Engstler, Markus; Stark, Holger; Friedrich, Rudolf

2010-03-01

Trypanosome is a parasite causing the sleeping sickness. The way it moves in the blood stream and penetrates various obstacles is the area of active research. Our goal was to investigate a free trypanosomes' motion in the planar geometry. Our analysis of trypanosomes' trajectories reveals that there are two correlation times - one is associated with a fast motion of its body and the second one with a slower rotational diffusion of the trypanosome as a point object. We propose a system of Langevin equations to model such motion. One of its peculiarities is the presence of multiplicative noise predicting higher level of noise for higher velocity of the trypanosome. Theoretical and numerical results give a comprehensive description of the experimental data such as the mean squared displacement, velocity distribution and auto-correlation function.

Probabilistic inversion with graph cuts: Application to the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirot, Guillaume; Linde, Niklas; Mariethoz, Grégoire; Bradford, John H.

2017-02-01

Inversion methods that build on multiple-point statistics tools offer the possibility to obtain model realizations that are not only in agreement with field data, but also with conceptual geological models that are represented by training images. A recent inversion approach based on patch-based geostatistical resimulation using graph cuts outperforms state-of-the-art multiple-point statistics methods when applied to synthetic inversion examples featuring continuous and discontinuous property fields. Applications of multiple-point statistics tools to field data are challenging due to inevitable discrepancies between actual subsurface structure and the assumptions made in deriving the training image. We introduce several amendments to the original graph cut inversion algorithm and present a first-ever field application by addressing porosity estimation at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site, Boise, Idaho. We consider both a classical multi-Gaussian and an outcrop-based prior model (training image) that are in agreement with available porosity data. When conditioning to available crosshole ground-penetrating radar data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, we find that the posterior realizations honor overall both the characteristics of the prior models and the geophysical data. The porosity field is inverted jointly with the measurement error and the petrophysical parameters that link dielectric permittivity to porosity. Even though the multi-Gaussian prior model leads to posterior realizations with higher likelihoods, the outcrop-based prior model shows better convergence. In addition, it offers geologically more realistic posterior realizations and it better preserves the full porosity range of the prior.

Second Language Experience Facilitates Statistical Learning of Novel Linguistic Materials.

PubMed

Potter, Christine E; Wang, Tianlin; Saffran, Jenny R

2017-04-01

Recent research has begun to explore individual differences in statistical learning, and how those differences may be related to other cognitive abilities, particularly their effects on language learning. In this research, we explored a different type of relationship between language learning and statistical learning: the possibility that learning a new language may also influence statistical learning by changing the regularities to which learners are sensitive. We tested two groups of participants, Mandarin Learners and Naïve Controls, at two time points, 6 months apart. At each time point, participants performed two different statistical learning tasks: an artificial tonal language statistical learning task and a visual statistical learning task. Only the Mandarin-learning group showed significant improvement on the linguistic task, whereas both groups improved equally on the visual task. These results support the view that there are multiple influences on statistical learning. Domain-relevant experiences may affect the regularities that learners can discover when presented with novel stimuli. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Second language experience facilitates statistical learning of novel linguistic materials

PubMed Central

Potter, Christine E.; Wang, Tianlin; Saffran, Jenny R.

2016-01-01

Recent research has begun to explore individual differences in statistical learning, and how those differences may be related to other cognitive abilities, particularly their effects on language learning. In the present research, we explored a different type of relationship between language learning and statistical learning: the possibility that learning a new language may also influence statistical learning by changing the regularities to which learners are sensitive. We tested two groups of participants, Mandarin Learners and Naïve Controls, at two time points, six months apart. At each time point, participants performed two different statistical learning tasks: an artificial tonal language statistical learning task and a visual statistical learning task. Only the Mandarin-learning group showed significant improvement on the linguistic task, while both groups improved equally on the visual task. These results support the view that there are multiple influences on statistical learning. Domain-relevant experiences may affect the regularities that learners can discover when presented with novel stimuli. PMID:27988939

A Mixed-Methods Study Investigating the Relationship between Media Multitasking Orientation and Grade Point Average

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jennifer

2012-01-01

The intent of this study was to examine the relationship between media multitasking orientation and grade point average. The study utilized a mixed-methods approach to investigate the research questions. In the quantitative section of the study, the primary method of statistical analyses was multiple regression. The independent variables for the…

In-group and role identity influences on the initiation and maintenance of students' voluntary attendance at peer study sessions for statistics.

PubMed

White, Katherine M; O'Connor, Erin L; Hamilton, Kyra

2011-06-01

Although class attendance is linked to academic performance, questions remain about what determines students' decisions to attend or miss class. In addition to the constructs of a common decision-making model, the theory of planned behaviour, the present study examined the influence of student role identity and university student (in-group) identification for predicting both the initiation and maintenance of students' attendance at voluntary peer-assisted study sessions in a statistics subject. University students enrolled in a statistics subject were invited to complete a questionnaire at two time points across the academic semester. A total of 79 university students completed questionnaires at the first data collection point, with 46 students completing the questionnaire at the second data collection point. Twice during the semester, students' attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, student role identity, in-group identification, and intention to attend study sessions were assessed via on-line questionnaires. Objective measures of class attendance records for each half-semester (or 'term') were obtained. Across both terms, students' attitudes predicted their attendance intentions, with intentions predicting class attendance. Earlier in the semester, in addition to perceived behavioural control, both student role identity and in-group identification predicted students' attendance intentions, with only role identity influencing intentions later in the semester. These findings highlight the possible chronology that different identity influences have in determining students' initial and maintained attendance at voluntary sessions designed to facilitate their learning. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

BetaTPred: prediction of beta-TURNS in a protein using statistical algorithms.

PubMed

Kaur, Harpreet; Raghava, G P S

2002-03-01

beta-turns play an important role from a structural and functional point of view. beta-turns are the most common type of non-repetitive structures in proteins and comprise on average, 25% of the residues. In the past numerous methods have been developed to predict beta-turns in a protein. Most of these prediction methods are based on statistical approaches. In order to utilize the full potential of these methods, there is a need to develop a web server. This paper describes a web server called BetaTPred, developed for predicting beta-TURNS in a protein from its amino acid sequence. BetaTPred allows the user to predict turns in a protein using existing statistical algorithms. It also allows to predict different types of beta-TURNS e.g. type I, I', II, II', VI, VIII and non-specific. This server assists the users in predicting the consensus beta-TURNS in a protein. The server is accessible from http://imtech.res.in/raghava/betatpred/

Detecting signals of drug-drug interactions in a spontaneous reports database.

PubMed

Thakrar, Bharat T; Grundschober, Sabine Borel; Doessegger, Lucette

2007-10-01

The spontaneous reports database is widely used for detecting signals of ADRs. We have extended the methodology to include the detection of signals of ADRs that are associated with drug-drug interactions (DDI). In particular, we have investigated two different statistical assumptions for detecting signals of DDI. Using the FDA's spontaneous reports database, we investigated two models, a multiplicative and an additive model, to detect signals of DDI. We applied the models to four known DDIs (methotrexate-diclofenac and bone marrow depression, simvastatin-ciclosporin and myopathy, ketoconazole-terfenadine and torsades de pointes, and cisapride-erythromycin and torsades de pointes) and to four drug-event combinations where there is currently no evidence of a DDI (fexofenadine-ketoconazole and torsades de pointes, methotrexade-rofecoxib and bone marrow depression, fluvastatin-ciclosporin and myopathy, and cisapride-azithromycine and torsade de pointes) and estimated the measure of interaction on the two scales. The additive model correctly identified all four known DDIs by giving a statistically significant (P < 0.05) positive measure of interaction. The multiplicative model identified the first two of the known DDIs as having a statistically significant or borderline significant (P < 0.1) positive measure of interaction term, gave a nonsignificant positive trend for the third interaction (P = 0.27), and a negative trend for the last interaction. Both models correctly identified the four known non interactions by estimating a negative measure of interaction. The spontaneous reports database is a valuable resource for detecting signals of DDIs. In particular, the additive model is more sensitive in detecting such signals. The multiplicative model may further help qualify the strength of the signal detected by the additive model.

Detecting signals of drug–drug interactions in a spontaneous reports database

PubMed Central

Thakrar, Bharat T; Grundschober, Sabine Borel; Doessegger, Lucette

2007-01-01

Aims The spontaneous reports database is widely used for detecting signals of ADRs. We have extended the methodology to include the detection of signals of ADRs that are associated with drug–drug interactions (DDI). In particular, we have investigated two different statistical assumptions for detecting signals of DDI. Methods Using the FDA's spontaneous reports database, we investigated two models, a multiplicative and an additive model, to detect signals of DDI. We applied the models to four known DDIs (methotrexate-diclofenac and bone marrow depression, simvastatin-ciclosporin and myopathy, ketoconazole-terfenadine and torsades de pointes, and cisapride-erythromycin and torsades de pointes) and to four drug-event combinations where there is currently no evidence of a DDI (fexofenadine-ketoconazole and torsades de pointes, methotrexade-rofecoxib and bone marrow depression, fluvastatin-ciclosporin and myopathy, and cisapride-azithromycine and torsade de pointes) and estimated the measure of interaction on the two scales. Results The additive model correctly identified all four known DDIs by giving a statistically significant (P< 0.05) positive measure of interaction. The multiplicative model identified the first two of the known DDIs as having a statistically significant or borderline significant (P< 0.1) positive measure of interaction term, gave a nonsignificant positive trend for the third interaction (P= 0.27), and a negative trend for the last interaction. Both models correctly identified the four known non interactions by estimating a negative measure of interaction. Conclusions The spontaneous reports database is a valuable resource for detecting signals of DDIs. In particular, the additive model is more sensitive in detecting such signals. The multiplicative model may further help qualify the strength of the signal detected by the additive model. PMID:17506784

Predict Brain MR Image Registration via Sparse Learning of Appearance and Transformation

PubMed Central

Wang, Qian; Kim, Minjeong; Shi, Yonghong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

2014-01-01

We propose a new approach to register the subject image with the template by leveraging a set of intermediate images that are pre-aligned to the template. We argue that, if points in the subject and the intermediate images share similar local appearances, they may have common correspondence in the template. In this way, we learn the sparse representation of a certain subject point to reveal several similar candidate points in the intermediate images. Each selected intermediate candidate can bridge the correspondence from the subject point to the template space, thus predicting the transformation associated with the subject point at the confidence level that relates to the learned sparse coefficient. Following this strategy, we first predict transformations at selected key points, and retain multiple predictions on each key point, instead of allowing only a single correspondence. Then, by utilizing all key points and their predictions with varying confidences, we adaptively reconstruct the dense transformation field that warps the subject to the template. We further embed the prediction-reconstruction protocol above into a multi-resolution hierarchy. In the final, we refine our estimated transformation field via existing registration method in effective manners. We apply our method to registering brain MR images, and conclude that the proposed framework is competent to improve registration performances substantially. PMID:25476412

Scaling and stochastic cascade properties of NEMO oceanic simulations and their potential value for GCM evaluation and downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrier, Sébastien; Crépon, Michel; Thiria, Sylvie

2014-09-01

Spectral scaling properties have already been evidenced on oceanic numerical simulations and have been subject to several interpretations. They can be used to evaluate classical turbulence theories that predict scaling with specific exponents and to evaluate the quality of GCM outputs from a statistical and multiscale point of view. However, a more complete framework based on multifractal cascades is able to generalize the classical but restrictive second-order spectral framework to other moment orders, providing an accurate description of probability distributions of the fields at multiple scales. The predictions of this formalism still needed systematic verification in oceanic GCM while they have been confirmed recently for their atmospheric counterparts by several papers. The present paper is devoted to a systematic analysis of several oceanic fields produced by the NEMO oceanic GCM. Attention is focused to regional, idealized configurations that permit to evaluate the NEMO engine core from a scaling point of view regardless of limitations involved by land masks. Based on classical multifractal analysis tools, multifractal properties were evidenced for several oceanic state variables (sea surface temperature and salinity, velocity components, etc.). While first-order structure functions estimated a different nonconservativity parameter H in two scaling ranges, the multiorder statistics of turbulent fluxes were scaling over almost the whole available scaling range. This multifractal scaling was then parameterized with the help of the universal multifractal framework, providing parameters that are coherent with existing empirical literature. Finally, we argue that the knowledge of these properties may be useful for oceanographers. The framework seems very well suited for the statistical evaluation of OGCM outputs. Moreover, it also provides practical solutions to simulate subpixel variability stochastically for GCM downscaling purposes. As an independent perspective, the existence of multifractal properties in oceanic flows seems also interesting for investigating scale dependencies in remote sensing inversion algorithms.

Comparison of two stand-alone CADe systems at multiple operating points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahiner, Berkman; Chen, Weijie; Pezeshk, Aria; Petrick, Nicholas

2015-03-01

Computer-aided detection (CADe) systems are typically designed to work at a given operating point: The device displays a mark if and only if the level of suspiciousness of a region of interest is above a fixed threshold. To compare the standalone performances of two systems, one approach is to select the parameters of the systems to yield a target false-positive rate that defines the operating point, and to compare the sensitivities at that operating point. Increasingly, CADe developers offer multiple operating points, which necessitates the comparison of two CADe systems involving multiple comparisons. To control the Type I error, multiple-comparison correction is needed for keeping the family-wise error rate (FWER) less than a given alpha-level. The sensitivities of a single modality at different operating points are correlated. In addition, the sensitivities of the two modalities at the same or different operating points are also likely to be correlated. It has been shown in the literature that when test statistics are correlated, well-known methods for controlling the FWER are conservative. In this study, we compared the FWER and power of three methods, namely the Bonferroni, step-up, and adjusted step-up methods in comparing the sensitivities of two CADe systems at multiple operating points, where the adjusted step-up method uses the estimated correlations. Our results indicate that the adjusted step-up method has a substantial advantage over other the two methods both in terms of the FWER and power.

Change in quality of life and predictors of change among patients with multiple sclerosis: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tepavcevic, Darija Kisic; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Stojsavljevic, Nebojsa; Kostic, Jelena; Basuroski, Irena Dujmovic; Mesaros, Sarlota; Drulovic, Jelena

2014-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine the changes in the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and predictors of change among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) at 3 and 6 years during the follow-up period. A group of 109 consecutive MS patients (McDonald's criteria) referred to the Clinic of Neurology, Belgrade, were enrolled in the study. At three time points during the study (baseline, and at 3 and 6 years during the follow-up period), the HRQoL (measured by MSQoL-54), Expanded Disability Status Scale, and Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression and Fatigue Severity Scale were assessed. During the study period, 93 patients provided both follow-up assessments. Statistically significant deterioration in the HRQoL at each subsequent time point was detected for all scales of the MSQoL-54 except for the pain and change in health scales. A higher level of education was a significant prognostic factor for a better HRQoL on the cognitive function scale throughout the entire period of observation, while marital status (single, including divorced and widowed) and increased age at the onset of MS had significant predictive values of poorer quality-of-life scores on the overall quality-of-life scale at 6-year follow-up. Higher levels of physical disability and depression at baseline were statistically significant prognostic markers for deterioration in HRQoL for the majority of MSQoL-54 scales during the entire follow-up period. Our study suggests that baseline demographic and clinical characteristics could be applied as prognostic markers of the HRQOL for patients diagnosed with MS.

Reduced Antiplatelet Effect of Aspirin Does Not Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Larsen, Sanne Bøjet; Grove, Erik Lerkevang; Neergaard-Petersen, Søs; Würtz, Morten; Hvas, Anne-Mette; Kristensen, Steen Dalby

2017-08-05

Increased platelet aggregation during antiplatelet therapy may predict cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease. The majority of these patients receive aspirin monotherapy. We aimed to investigate whether high platelet-aggregation levels predict cardiovascular events in stable coronary artery disease patients treated with aspirin. We included 900 stable coronary artery disease patients with either previous myocardial infarction, type 2 diabetes mellitus, or both. All patients received single antithrombotic therapy with 75 mg aspirin daily. Platelet aggregation was evaluated 1 hour after aspirin intake using the VerifyNow Aspirin Assay (Accriva Diagnostics) and Multiplate Analyzer (Roche; agonists: arachidonic acid and collagen). Adherence to aspirin was confirmed by serum thromboxane B 2 . The primary end point was the composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death. At 3-year follow-up, 78 primary end points were registered. The primary end point did not occur more frequently in patients with high platelet-aggregation levels (first versus fourth quartile) assessed by VerifyNow (hazard ratio: 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-1.1], P =0.08) or Multiplate using arachidonic acid (hazard ratio: 1.0 [95% CI, 0.5-2.1], P =0.92) or collagen (hazard ratio: 1.4 [95% CI, 0.7-2.8], P =0.38). Similar results were found for the composite secondary end point (nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, stent thrombosis, and all-cause death) and the single end points. Thromboxane B 2 levels did not predict any end points. Renal insufficiency was the only clinical risk factor predicting the primary and secondary end points. This study is the largest to investigate platelet aggregation in stable coronary artery disease patients receiving aspirin as single antithrombotic therapy. We found that high platelet-aggregation levels did not predict cardiovascular events. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The impacts of renewable energy policies on renewable energy sources for electricity generating capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Bryan Bonsuk

Electricity generation from non-hydro renewable sources has increased rapidly in the last decade. For example, Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) generating capacity in the U.S. almost doubled for the last three year from 2009 to 2012. Multiple papers point out that RES-E policies implemented by state governments play a crucial role in increasing RES-E generation or capacity. This study examines the effects of state RES-E policies on state RES-E generating capacity, using a fixed effects model. The research employs panel data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, for the period 1990 to 2011, and uses a two-stage approach to control endogeneity embedded in the policies adopted by state governments, and a Prais-Winsten estimator to fix any autocorrelation in the panel data. The analysis finds that Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Net-metering are significantly and positively associated with RES-E generating capacity, but neither Public Benefit Funds nor the Mandatory Green Power Option has a statistically significant relation to RES-E generating capacity. Results of the two-stage model are quite different from models which do not employ predicted policy variables. Analysis using non-predicted variables finds that RPS and Net-metering policy are statistically insignificant and negatively associated with RES-E generating capacity. On the other hand, Green Energy Purchasing policy is insignificant in the two-stage model, but significant in the model without predicted values.

Why significant variables aren't automatically good predictors.

PubMed

Lo, Adeline; Chernoff, Herman; Zheng, Tian; Lo, Shaw-Hwa

2015-11-10

Thus far, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been disappointing in the inability of investigators to use the results of identified, statistically significant variants in complex diseases to make predictions useful for personalized medicine. Why are significant variables not leading to good prediction of outcomes? We point out that this problem is prevalent in simple as well as complex data, in the sciences as well as the social sciences. We offer a brief explanation and some statistical insights on why higher significance cannot automatically imply stronger predictivity and illustrate through simulations and a real breast cancer example. We also demonstrate that highly predictive variables do not necessarily appear as highly significant, thus evading the researcher using significance-based methods. We point out that what makes variables good for prediction versus significance depends on different properties of the underlying distributions. If prediction is the goal, we must lay aside significance as the only selection standard. We suggest that progress in prediction requires efforts toward a new research agenda of searching for a novel criterion to retrieve highly predictive variables rather than highly significant variables. We offer an alternative approach that was not designed for significance, the partition retention method, which was very effective predicting on a long-studied breast cancer data set, by reducing the classification error rate from 30% to 8%.

Solar activity prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slutz, R. J.; Gray, T. B.; West, M. L.; Stewart, F. G.; Leftin, M.

1971-01-01

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Physique and Performance of Young Wheelchair Basketball Players in Relation with Classification

PubMed Central

Zancanaro, Carlo

2015-01-01

The relationships among physical characteristics, performance, and functional ability classification of younger wheelchair basketball players have been barely investigated to date. The purpose of this work was to assess anthropometry, body composition, and performance in sport-specific field tests in a national sample of Italian younger wheelchair basketball players as well as to evaluate the association of these variables with the players’ functional ability classification and game-related statistics. Several anthropometric measurements were obtained for 52 out of 91 eligible players nationwide. Performance was assessed in seven sport-specific field tests (5m sprint, 20m sprint with ball, suicide, maximal pass, pass for accuracy, spot shot and lay-ups) and game-related statistics (free-throw points scored per match, two- and three-point field-goals scored per match, and their sum). Association between variables, and predictivity was assessed by correlation and regression analysis, respectively. Players were grouped into four Classes of increasing functional ability (A-D). One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni’s correction for multiple comparisons was used to assess differences between Classes. Sitting height and functional ability Class especially correlated with performance outcomes, but wheelchair basketball experience and skinfolds did not. Game-related statistics and sport-specific field-test scores all showed significant correlation with each other. Upper arm circumference and/or maximal pass and lay-ups test scores were able to explain 42 to 59% of variance in game-related statistics (P<0.001). A clear difference in performance was only found for functional ability Class A and D. Conclusion: In younger wheelchair basketball players, sitting height positively contributes to performance. The maximal pass and lay-ups test should be carefully considered in younger wheelchair basketball training plans. Functional ability Class reflects to a limited extent the actual differences in performance. PMID:26606681

Spatial prediction of soil texture in region Centre (France) from summary data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobarco, Mercedes Roman; Saby, Nicolas; Paroissien, Jean-Baptiste; Orton, Tom G.

2015-04-01

Soil texture is a key controlling factor of important soil functions like water and nutrient holding capacity, retention of pollutants, drainage, soil biodiversity, and C cycling. High resolution soil texture maps enhance our understanding of the spatial distribution of soil properties and provide valuable information for decision making and crop management, environmental protection, and hydrological planning. We predicted the soil texture of agricultural topsoils in the Region Centre (France) combining regression and area-to-point kriging. Soil texture data was collected from the French soil-test database (BDAT), which is populated with soil analysis performed by farmers' demand. To protect the anonymity of the farms the data was treated by commune. In a first step, summary statistics of environmental covariates by commune were used to develop prediction models with Cubist, boosted regression trees, and random forests. In a second step the residuals of each individual observation were summarized by commune and kriged following the method developed by Orton et al. (2012). This approach allowed to include non-linear relationships among covariates and soil texture while accounting for the uncertainty on areal means in the area-to-point kriging step. Independent validation of the models was done using data from the systematic soil monitoring network of French soils. Future work will compare the performance of these models with a non-stationary variance geostatistical model using the most important covariates and summary statistics of texture data. The results will inform on whether the later and statistically more-challenging approach improves significantly texture predictions or whether the more simple area-to-point regression kriging can offer satisfactory results. The application of area-to-point regression kriging at national level using BDAT data has the potential to improve soil texture predictions for agricultural topsoils, especially when combined with existing maps (i.e., model ensemble).

Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, Justin; Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya, Edmundo; Block, Paul

2017-09-01

In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited-capacity reservoir to allocate 25 000 water rights. Delayed infrastructure investment forces water managers to address demand-based allocation strategies, particularly in dry years, which are realized through reductions in the volume associated with each water right. Skillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform managers with an indication of future conditions to guide reservoir allocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models of October-January (growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times associated with manager and user decision points, and links predictions with a reservoir allocation tool. Skillful results (streamflow forecasts outperform climatology) are produced for short lead times (1 September: ranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 0.31, categorical hit skill score of 61 %). At longer lead times, climatological skill exceeds forecast skill due to fewer observations of precipitation. However, coupling the 1 September statistical forecast model with a sea surface temperature phase and strength statistical model allows for equally skillful categorical streamflow forecasts to be produced for a 1 May lead, triggered for 60 % of years (1950-2015), suggesting forecasts need not be strictly deterministic to be useful for water rights holders. An early (1 May) categorical indication of expected conditions is reinforced with a deterministic forecast (1 September) as more observations of local variables become available. The reservoir allocation model is skillful at the 1 September lead (categorical hit skill score of 53 %); skill improves to 79 % when categorical allocation prediction certainty exceeds 80 %. This result implies that allocation efficiency may improve when forecasts are integrated into reservoir decision frameworks. The methods applied here advance the understanding of the mechanisms and timing responsible for moisture transport to the Elqui Valley and provide a unique application of streamflow forecasting in the prediction of water right allocations.

Evaluation of tunnel seismic prediction (TSP) result using the Japanese highway rock mass classification system for Pahang-Selangor Raw Water Transfer Tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Von, W. C.; Ismail, M. A. M.

2017-10-01

The knowing of geological profile ahead of tunnel face is significant to minimize the risk in tunnel excavation work and cost control in preventative measure. Due to mountainous area, site investigation with vertical boring is not recommended to obtain the geological profile for Pahang-Selangor Raw Water Transfer project. Hence, tunnel seismic prediction (TSP) method is adopted to predict the geological profile ahead of tunnel face. In order to evaluate the TSP results, IBM SPSS Statistic 22 is used to run artificial neural network (ANN) analysis to back calculate the predicted Rock Grade Points (JH) from actual Rock Grade Points (JH) using Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs from TSP. The results show good correlation between predicted Rock Grade points and actual Rock Grade Points (JH). In other words, TSP can provide geological profile prediction ahead of tunnel face significantly while allowing continuously TBM excavation works. Identifying weak zones or faults ahead of tunnel face is crucial for preventative measures to be carried out in advance for a safer tunnel excavation works.

Field Penetration in a Rectangular Box Using Numerical Techniques: An Effort to Obtain Statistical Shielding Effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bunting, Charles F.; Yu, Shih-Pin

2006-01-01

This paper emphasizes the application of numerical methods to explore the ideas related to shielding effectiveness from a statistical view. An empty rectangular box is examined using a hybrid modal/moment method. The basic computational method is presented followed by the results for single- and multiple observation points within the over-moded empty structure. The statistics of the field are obtained by using frequency stirring, borrowed from the ideas connected with reverberation chamber techniques, and extends the ideas of shielding effectiveness well into the multiple resonance regions. The study presented in this paper will address the average shielding effectiveness over a broad spatial sample within the enclosure as the frequency is varied.

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lilly-Salkowski, Tyler B.

2017-01-01

This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The goal of the process is to characterize the filter performance in the metric of covariance realism. The Chi-squared statistic is the value calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance. The process of tuning an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types, and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-squared statistic, calculated from EKF solutions, are assessed.

[Quantitative structure-gas chromatographic retention relationship of polycyclic aromatic sulfur heterocycles using molecular electronegativity-distance vector].

PubMed

Li, Zhenghua; Cheng, Fansheng; Xia, Zhining

2011-01-01

The chemical structures of 114 polycyclic aromatic sulfur heterocycles (PASHs) have been studied by molecular electronegativity-distance vector (MEDV). The linear relationships between gas chromatographic retention index and the MEDV have been established by a multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The results of variable selection by stepwise multiple regression (SMR) and the powerful predictive abilities of the optimization model appraised by leave-one-out cross-validation showed that the optimization model with the correlation coefficient (R) of 0.994 7 and the cross-validated correlation coefficient (Rcv) of 0.994 0 possessed the best statistical quality. Furthermore, when the 114 PASHs compounds were divided into calibration and test sets in the ratio of 2:1, the statistical analysis showed our models possesses almost equal statistical quality, the very similar regression coefficients and the good robustness. The quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) model established may provide a convenient and powerful method for predicting the gas chromatographic retention of PASHs.

Reciprocal Associations between Negative Affect, Binge Eating, and Purging in the Natural Environment in Women with Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Lavender, Jason M.; Utzinger, Linsey M.; Cao, Li; Wonderlich, Stephen A.; Engel, Scott G.; Mitchell, James E.; Crosby, Ross D.

2016-01-01

Although negative affect (NA) has been identified as a common trigger for bulimic behaviors, findings regarding NA following such behaviors have been mixed. This study examined reciprocal associations between NA and bulimic behaviors using real-time, naturalistic data. Participants were 133 women with DSM-IV bulimia nervosa (BN) who completed a two-week ecological momentary assessment (EMA) protocol in which they recorded bulimic behaviors and provided multiple daily ratings of NA. A multilevel autoregressive cross-lagged analysis was conducted to examine concurrent, first-order autoregressive, and prospective associations between NA, binge eating, and purging across the day. Results revealed positive concurrent associations between all variables across all time points, as well as numerous autoregressive associations. For prospective associations, higher NA predicted subsequent bulimic symptoms at multiple time points; conversely, binge eating predicted lower NA at multiple time points, and purging predicted higher NA at one time point. Several autoregressive and prospective associations were also found between binge eating and purging. This study used a novel approach to examine NA in relation to bulimic symptoms, contributing to the existing literature by directly examining the magnitude of the associations, examining differences in the associations across the day, and controlling for other associations in testing each effect in the model. These findings may have relevance for understanding the etiology and/or maintenance of bulimic symptoms, as well as potentially informing psychological interventions for BN. PMID:26692122

Modelling a real-world buried valley system with vertical non-stationarity using multiple-point statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiulan; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Jørgensen, Flemming; Jensen, Karsten H.

2017-03-01

Stationarity has traditionally been a requirement of geostatistical simulations. A common way to deal with non-stationarity is to divide the system into stationary sub-regions and subsequently merge the realizations for each region. Recently, the so-called partition approach that has the flexibility to model non-stationary systems directly was developed for multiple-point statistics simulation (MPS). The objective of this study is to apply the MPS partition method with conventional borehole logs and high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data, for simulation of a real-world non-stationary geological system characterized by a network of connected buried valleys that incise deeply into layered Miocene sediments (case study in Denmark). The results show that, based on fragmented information of the formation boundaries, the MPS partition method is able to simulate a non-stationary system including valley structures embedded in a layered Miocene sequence in a single run. Besides, statistical information retrieved from the AEM data improved the simulation of the geology significantly, especially for the deep-seated buried valley sediments where borehole information is sparse.

The extraction of simple relationships in growth factor-specific multiple-input and multiple-output systems in cell-fate decisions by backward elimination PLS regression.

PubMed

Akimoto, Yuki; Yugi, Katsuyuki; Uda, Shinsuke; Kudo, Takamasa; Komori, Yasunori; Kubota, Hiroyuki; Kuroda, Shinya

2013-01-01

Cells use common signaling molecules for the selective control of downstream gene expression and cell-fate decisions. The relationship between signaling molecules and downstream gene expression and cellular phenotypes is a multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) system and is difficult to understand due to its complexity. For example, it has been reported that, in PC12 cells, different types of growth factors activate MAP kinases (MAPKs) including ERK, JNK, and p38, and CREB, for selective protein expression of immediate early genes (IEGs) such as c-FOS, c-JUN, EGR1, JUNB, and FOSB, leading to cell differentiation, proliferation and cell death; however, how multiple-inputs such as MAPKs and CREB regulate multiple-outputs such as expression of the IEGs and cellular phenotypes remains unclear. To address this issue, we employed a statistical method called partial least squares (PLS) regression, which involves a reduction of the dimensionality of the inputs and outputs into latent variables and a linear regression between these latent variables. We measured 1,200 data points for MAPKs and CREB as the inputs and 1,900 data points for IEGs and cellular phenotypes as the outputs, and we constructed the PLS model from these data. The PLS model highlighted the complexity of the MIMO system and growth factor-specific input-output relationships of cell-fate decisions in PC12 cells. Furthermore, to reduce the complexity, we applied a backward elimination method to the PLS regression, in which 60 input variables were reduced to 5 variables, including the phosphorylation of ERK at 10 min, CREB at 5 min and 60 min, AKT at 5 min and JNK at 30 min. The simple PLS model with only 5 input variables demonstrated a predictive ability comparable to that of the full PLS model. The 5 input variables effectively extracted the growth factor-specific simple relationships within the MIMO system in cell-fate decisions in PC12 cells.

The role of point-of-care assessment of platelet function in predicting postoperative bleeding and transfusion requirements after coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Mishra, Pankaj Kumar; Thekkudan, Joyce; Sahajanandan, Raj; Gravenor, Mike; Lakshmanan, Suresh; Fayaz, Khazi Mohammed; Luckraz, Heyman

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE platelet function assessment after cardiac surgery can predict postoperative blood loss, guide transfusion requirements and discriminate the need for surgical re-exploration. We conducted this study to assess the predictive value of point-of-care testing platelet function using the Multiplate® device. Patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting were prospectively recruited ( n = 84). Group A ( n = 42) patients were on anti-platelet therapy until surgery; patients in Group B ( n = 42) stopped anti-platelet treatment at least 5 days preoperatively. Multiplate® and thromboelastography (TEG) tests were performed in the perioperative period. Primary end-point was excessive bleeding (>2.5 ml/kg/h) within first 3 h postoperative. Secondary end-points included transfusion requirements, re-exploration rates, intensive care unit and in-hospital stays. Patients in Group A had excessive bleeding (59% vs. 33%, P = 0.02), higher re-exploration rates (14% vs. 0%, P < 0.01) and higher rate of blood (41% vs. 14%, P < 0.01) and platelet (14% vs. 2%, P = 0.05) transfusions. On multivariate analysis, preoperative platelet function testing was the most significant predictor of excessive bleeding (odds ratio [OR]: 2.3, P = 0.08), need for blood (OR: 5.5, P < 0.01) and platelet transfusion (OR: 15.1, P < 0.01). Postoperative "ASPI test" best predicted the need for transfusion (sensitivity - 0.86) and excessive blood loss (sensitivity - 0.81). TEG results did not correlate well with any of these outcome measures. Peri-operative platelet functional assessment with Multiplate® was the strongest predictor for bleeding and transfusion requirements in patients on anti-platelet therapy until the time of surgery.

Bibliometric Analysis of Manuscript Characteristics That Influence Citations: A Comparison of Six Major Radiology Journals.

PubMed

Shekhani, Haris Naseem; Shariff, Shoaib; Bhulani, Nizar; Khosa, Faisal; Hanna, Tarek Noel

2017-12-01

The objective of our study was to investigate radiology manuscript characteristics that influence citation rate, capturing features of manuscript construction that are discrete from study design. Consecutive articles published from January 2004 to June 2004 were collected from the six major radiology journals with the highest impact factors: Radiology (impact factor, 5.076), Investigative Radiology (2.320), American Journal of Neuroradiology (AJNR) (2.384), RadioGraphics (2.494), European Radiology (2.364), and American Journal of Roentgenology (2.406). The citation count for these articles was retrieved from the Web of Science, and 29 article characteristics were tabulated manually. A point-biserial correlation, Spearman rank-order correlation, and multiple regression model were performed to predict citation number from the collected variables. A total of 703 articles-211 published in Radiology, 48 in Investigative Radiology, 106 in AJNR, 52 in RadioGraphics, 129 in European Radiology, and 157 in AJR-were evaluated. Punctuation was included in the title in 55% of the articles and had the highest statistically significant positive correlation to citation rate (point-biserial correlation coefficient [r pb ] = 0.85, p < 0.05). Open access status provided a low-magnitude, but significant, correlation to citation rate (r pb = 0.140, p < 0.001). The following variables created a significant multiple regression model to predict citation count (p < 0.005, R 2 = 0.186): study findings in the title, abstract word count, abstract character count, total number of words, country of origin, and all authors in the field of radiology. Using bibliometric knowledge, authors can craft a title, abstract, and text that may enhance visibility and citation count over what they would otherwise experience.

A Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) Study of Aliphatic Alcohols by the Method of Dividing the Molecular Structure into Substructure

PubMed Central

Liu, Fengping; Cao, Chenzhong; Cheng, Bin

2011-01-01

A quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) analysis of aliphatic alcohols is presented. Four physicochemical properties were studied: boiling point (BP), n-octanol–water partition coefficient (lg POW), water solubility (lg W) and the chromatographic retention indices (RI) on different polar stationary phases. In order to investigate the quantitative structure–property relationship of aliphatic alcohols, the molecular structure ROH is divided into two parts, R and OH to generate structural parameter. It was proposed that the property is affected by three main factors for aliphatic alcohols, alkyl group R, substituted group OH, and interaction between R and OH. On the basis of the polarizability effect index (PEI), previously developed by Cao, the novel molecular polarizability effect index (MPEI) combined with odd-even index (OEI), the sum eigenvalues of bond-connecting matrix (SX1CH) previously developed in our team, were used to predict the property of aliphatic alcohols. The sets of molecular descriptors were derived directly from the structure of the compounds based on graph theory. QSPR models were generated using only calculated descriptors and multiple linear regression techniques. These QSPR models showed high values of multiple correlation coefficient (R > 0.99) and Fisher-ratio statistics. The leave-one-out cross-validation demonstrated the final models to be statistically significant and reliable. PMID:21731451

Binding Site and Potency Prediction of Teixobactin and other Lipid II Ligands by Statistical Base Scoring of Conformational Space Maps.

PubMed

Lungu, Claudiu N; Diudea, Mircea V

2018-01-01

Lipid II, a peptidoglycan, is a precursor in bacterial cell synthesis. It has both hydrophilic and lipophilic properties. The molecule translocates a bacterial membrane to deliver and incorporate "building blocks" from disaccharide-pentapeptide into the peptidoglican wall. Lipid II is a valid antibiotic target. A receptor binding pocket may be occupied by a ligand in various plausible conformations, among which only few ones are energetically related to a biological activity in the physiological efficiency domain. This paper reports the mapping of the conformational space of Lipid II in its interaction with Teixobactin and other Lipid II ligands. In order to study computationally the complex between Lipid II and ligands, a docking study was first carried on. Docking site was retrieved form literature. After docking, 5 ligand conformations and further 5 complexes (denoted 00 to 04) for each molecule were taken into account. For each structure, conformational studies were performed. Statistical analysis, conformational analysis and molecular dynamics based clustering were used to predict the potency of these compounds. A score for potency prediction was developed. Appling lipid II classification according to Lipid II conformational energy, a conformation of Teixobactin proved to be energetically favorable, followed by Oritravicin, Dalbavycin, Telvanicin, Teicoplamin and Vancomycin, respectively. Scoring of molecules according to cluster band and PCA produced the same result. Molecules classified according to standard deviations showed Dalbavycin as the most favorable conformation, followed by Teicoplamin, Telvanicin, Teixobactin, Oritravicin and Vancomycin, respectively. Total score showing best energetic efficiency of complex formation shows Teixobactin to have the best conformation (a score of 15 points) followed by Dalbavycin (14 points), Oritravicin (12v points), Telvanicin (10 points), Teicoplamin (9 points), Vancomycin (3 points). Statistical analysis of conformations can be used to predict the efficiency of ligand - target interaction and consecutively to find insight regarding ligand potency and postulate about favorable conformation of ligand and binding site. In this study it was shown that Teixobactin is more efficient in binding with Lipid II compared to Vancomycin, results confirmed by experimental data reported in literature. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.

2002-01-01

A simple, graphical framework is presented for robust statistical evaluation of results obtained from N-Version testing of a series of RANS CFD codes. The solutions were obtained by a variety of code developers and users for the June 2001 Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration used for the computational tests is the DLR-F4 wing-body combination previously tested in several European wind tunnels and for which a previous N-Version test had been conducted. The statistical framework is used to evaluate code results for (1) a single cruise design point, (2) drag polars and (3) drag rise. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of the results, especially with respect to predictability, Validation, and reporting of solutions.

[How reliable is the monitoring for doping?].

PubMed

Hüsler, J

1990-12-01

The reliability of the dope control, of the chemical analysis of the urine probes in the accredited laboratories and their decisions, is discussed using probabilistic and statistical methods. Basically, we evaluated and estimated the positive predictive value which means the probability that an urine probe contains prohibited dope substances given a positive test decision. Since there are not statistical data and evidence for some important quantities in relation to the predictive value, an exact evaluation is not possible, only conservative, lower bounds can be given. We found that the predictive value is at least 90% or 95% with respect to the analysis and decision based on the A-probe only, and at least 99% with respect to both A- and B-probes. A more realistic observation, but without sufficient statistical confidence, points to the fact that the true predictive value is significantly larger than these lower estimates.

Interspecies scaling and prediction of human clearance: comparison of small- and macro-molecule drugs

PubMed Central

Huh, Yeamin; Smith, David E.; Feng, Meihau Rose

2014-01-01

Human clearance prediction for small- and macro-molecule drugs was evaluated and compared using various scaling methods and statistical analysis.Human clearance is generally well predicted using single or multiple species simple allometry for macro- and small-molecule drugs excreted renally.The prediction error is higher for hepatically eliminated small-molecules using single or multiple species simple allometry scaling, and it appears that the prediction error is mainly associated with drugs with low hepatic extraction ratio (Eh). The error in human clearance prediction for hepatically eliminated small-molecules was reduced using scaling methods with a correction of maximum life span (MLP) or brain weight (BRW).Human clearance of both small- and macro-molecule drugs is well predicted using the monkey liver blood flow method. Predictions using liver blood flow from other species did not work as well, especially for the small-molecule drugs. PMID:21892879

Reconstruction of three-dimensional porous media using a single thin section

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahmasebi, Pejman; Sahimi, Muhammad

2012-06-01

The purpose of any reconstruction method is to generate realizations of two- or multiphase disordered media that honor limited data for them, with the hope that the realizations provide accurate predictions for those properties of the media for which there are no data available, or their measurement is difficult. An important example of such stochastic systems is porous media for which the reconstruction technique must accurately represent their morphology—the connectivity and geometry—as well as their flow and transport properties. Many of the current reconstruction methods are based on low-order statistical descriptors that fail to provide accurate information on the properties of heterogeneous porous media. On the other hand, due to the availability of high resolution two-dimensional (2D) images of thin sections of a porous medium, and at the same time, the high cost, computational difficulties, and even unavailability of complete 3D images, the problem of reconstructing porous media from 2D thin sections remains an outstanding unsolved problem. We present a method based on multiple-point statistics in which a single 2D thin section of a porous medium, represented by a digitized image, is used to reconstruct the 3D porous medium to which the thin section belongs. The method utilizes a 1D raster path for inspecting the digitized image, and combines it with a cross-correlation function, a grid splitting technique for deciding the resolution of the computational grid used in the reconstruction, and the Shannon entropy as a measure of the heterogeneity of the porous sample, in order to reconstruct the 3D medium. It also utilizes an adaptive technique for identifying the locations and optimal number of hard (quantitative) data points that one can use in the reconstruction process. The method is tested on high resolution images for Berea sandstone and a carbonate rock sample, and the results are compared with the data. To make the comparison quantitative, two sets of statistical tests consisting of the autocorrelation function, histogram matching of the local coordination numbers, the pore and throat size distributions, multiple-points connectivity, and single- and two-phase flow permeabilities are used. The comparison indicates that the proposed method reproduces the long-range connectivity of the porous media, with the computed properties being in good agreement with the data for both porous samples. The computational efficiency of the method is also demonstrated.

Practical low-cost visual communication using binary images for deaf sign language.

PubMed

Manoranjan, M D; Robinson, J A

2000-03-01

Deaf sign language transmitted by video requires a temporal resolution of 8 to 10 frames/s for effective communication. Conventional videoconferencing applications, when operated over low bandwidth telephone lines, provide very low temporal resolution of pictures, of the order of less than a frame per second, resulting in jerky movement of objects. This paper presents a practical solution for sign language communication, offering adequate temporal resolution of images using moving binary sketches or cartoons, implemented on standard personal computer hardware with low-cost cameras and communicating over telephone lines. To extract cartoon points an efficient feature extraction algorithm adaptive to the global statistics of the image is proposed. To improve the subjective quality of the binary images, irreversible preprocessing techniques, such as isolated point removal and predictive filtering, are used. A simple, efficient and fast recursive temporal prefiltering scheme, using histograms of successive frames, reduces the additive and multiplicative noise from low-cost cameras. An efficient three-dimensional (3-D) compression scheme codes the binary sketches. Subjective tests performed on the system confirm that it can be used for sign language communication over telephone lines.

The Ups and Downs of Repeated Cleavage and Internal Fragment Production in Top-Down Proteomics.

PubMed

Lyon, Yana A; Riggs, Dylan; Fornelli, Luca; Compton, Philip D; Julian, Ryan R

2018-01-01

Analysis of whole proteins by mass spectrometry, or top-down proteomics, has several advantages over methods relying on proteolysis. For example, proteoforms can be unambiguously identified and examined. However, from a gas-phase ion-chemistry perspective, proteins are enormous molecules that present novel challenges relative to peptide analysis. Herein, the statistics of cleaving the peptide backbone multiple times are examined to evaluate the inherent propensity for generating internal versus terminal ions. The raw statistics reveal an inherent bias favoring production of terminal ions, which holds true regardless of protein size. Importantly, even if the full suite of internal ions is generated by statistical dissociation, terminal ions are predicted to account for at least 50% of the total ion current, regardless of protein size, if there are three backbone dissociations or fewer. Top-down analysis should therefore be a viable approach for examining proteins of significant size. Comparison of the purely statistical analysis with actual top-down data derived from ultraviolet photodissociation (UVPD) and higher-energy collisional dissociation (HCD) reveals that terminal ions account for much of the total ion current in both experiments. Terminal ion production is more favored in UVPD relative to HCD, which is likely due to differences in the mechanisms controlling fragmentation. Importantly, internal ions are not found to dominate from either the theoretical or experimental point of view. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

The Ups and Downs of Repeated Cleavage and Internal Fragment Production in Top-Down Proteomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Yana A.; Riggs, Dylan; Fornelli, Luca; Compton, Philip D.; Julian, Ryan R.

2018-01-01

Analysis of whole proteins by mass spectrometry, or top-down proteomics, has several advantages over methods relying on proteolysis. For example, proteoforms can be unambiguously identified and examined. However, from a gas-phase ion-chemistry perspective, proteins are enormous molecules that present novel challenges relative to peptide analysis. Herein, the statistics of cleaving the peptide backbone multiple times are examined to evaluate the inherent propensity for generating internal versus terminal ions. The raw statistics reveal an inherent bias favoring production of terminal ions, which holds true regardless of protein size. Importantly, even if the full suite of internal ions is generated by statistical dissociation, terminal ions are predicted to account for at least 50% of the total ion current, regardless of protein size, if there are three backbone dissociations or fewer. Top-down analysis should therefore be a viable approach for examining proteins of significant size. Comparison of the purely statistical analysis with actual top-down data derived from ultraviolet photodissociation (UVPD) and higher-energy collisional dissociation (HCD) reveals that terminal ions account for much of the total ion current in both experiments. Terminal ion production is more favored in UVPD relative to HCD, which is likely due to differences in the mechanisms controlling fragmentation. Importantly, internal ions are not found to dominate from either the theoretical or experimental point of view. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

A predictive model for recurrence in patients with glottic cancer implemented in a mobile application for Android.

PubMed

Jover-Esplá, Ana Gabriela; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Severá-Ferrándiz, Guillermo; Sancho-Mestre, Manuela; de Juan-Herrero, Joaquín; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2018-05-01

The existing predictive models of laryngeal cancer recurrence present limitations for clinical practice. Therefore, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application (Android) a new model based on a points system taking into account the internationally recommended statistical methodology. This longitudinal prospective study included 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in a Spanish region. The main variable was time-to-recurrence, and its potential predictors were: age, gender, TNM classification, stage, smoking, alcohol consumption, and histology. A points system was developed to predict five-year risk of recurrence based on a Cox model. This was validated internally by bootstrapping, determining discrimination (C-statistics) and calibration (smooth curves). A total of 77 patients presented recurrence (40.7%) in a mean follow-up period of 3.4 ± 3.0 years. The factors in the model were: age, lymph node stage, alcohol consumption and stage. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory. A points system was developed to obtain the probability of recurrence of laryngeal glottic cancer in five years, using five clinical variables. Our system should be validated externally in other geographical areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting for host cell protein behavior in anion-exchange chromatography.

PubMed

Swanson, Ryan K; Xu, Ruo; Nettleton, Daniel S; Glatz, Charles E

2016-11-01

Host cell proteins (HCP) are a problematic set of impurities in downstream processing (DSP) as they behave most similarly to the target protein during separation. Approaching DSP with the knowledge of HCP separation behavior would be beneficial for the production of high purity recombinant biologics. Therefore, this work was aimed at characterizing the separation behavior of complex mixtures of HCP during a commonly used method: anion-exchange chromatography (AEX). An additional goal was to evaluate the performance of a statistical methodology, based on the characterization data, as a tool for predicting protein separation behavior. Aqueous two-phase partitioning followed by two-dimensional electrophoresis provided data on the three physicochemical properties most commonly exploited during DSP for each HCP: pI (isoelectric point), molecular weight, and surface hydrophobicity. The protein separation behaviors of two alternative expression host extracts (corn germ and E. coli) were characterized. A multivariate random forest (MVRF) statistical methodology was then applied to the database of characterized proteins creating a tool for predicting the AEX behavior of a mixture of proteins. The accuracy of the MVRF method was determined by calculating a root mean squared error value for each database. This measure never exceeded a value of 0.045 (fraction of protein populating each of the multiple separation fractions) for AEX. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:1453-1463, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the 6th AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derlaga, Joseph M.; Morrison, Joseph H.

2017-01-01

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N- version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational uid dynam- ics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using both common and custom grid sequencees as well as multiple turbulence models for the June 2016 6th AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic con guration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing- body previously used for both the 4th and 5th Drag Prediction Workshops. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

PubMed

Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management

PubMed Central

Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004–2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper. PMID:29473007

Analysis and prediction of flow from local source in a river basin using a Neuro-fuzzy modeling tool.

PubMed

Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi

2007-10-01

Traditionally, the multiple linear regression technique has been one of the most widely used models in simulating hydrological time series. However, when the nonlinear phenomenon is significant, the multiple linear will fail to develop an appropriate predictive model. Recently, neuro-fuzzy systems have gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships. This study evaluated the potential of a neuro-fuzzy system as an alternative to the traditional statistical regression technique for the purpose of predicting flow from a local source in a river basin. The effectiveness of the proposed identification technique was demonstrated through a simulation study of the river flow time series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. Furthermore, in order to provide the uncertainty associated with the estimation of river flow, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed. As a comparison, a multiple linear regression analysis that was being used by the Citarum River Authority was also examined using various statistical indices. The simulation results using 95% confidence intervals indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model consistently underestimated the magnitude of high flow while the low and medium flow magnitudes were estimated closer to the observed data. The comparison of the prediction accuracy of the neuro-fuzzy and linear regression methods indicated that the neuro-fuzzy approach was more accurate in predicting river flow dynamics. The neuro-fuzzy model was able to improve the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the multiple linear regression forecasts by about 13.52% and 10.73%, respectively. Considering its simplicity and efficiency, the neuro-fuzzy model is recommended as an alternative tool for modeling of flow dynamics in the study area.

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SAAFEC: Predicting the Effect of Single Point Mutations on Protein Folding Free Energy Using a Knowledge-Modified MM/PBSA Approach.

PubMed

Getov, Ivan; Petukh, Marharyta; Alexov, Emil

2016-04-07

Folding free energy is an important biophysical characteristic of proteins that reflects the overall stability of the 3D structure of macromolecules. Changes in the amino acid sequence, naturally occurring or made in vitro, may affect the stability of the corresponding protein and thus could be associated with disease. Several approaches that predict the changes of the folding free energy caused by mutations have been proposed, but there is no method that is clearly superior to the others. The optimal goal is not only to accurately predict the folding free energy changes, but also to characterize the structural changes induced by mutations and the physical nature of the predicted folding free energy changes. Here we report a new method to predict the Single Amino Acid Folding free Energy Changes (SAAFEC) based on a knowledge-modified Molecular Mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann (MM/PBSA) approach. The method is comprised of two main components: a MM/PBSA component and a set of knowledge based terms delivered from a statistical study of the biophysical characteristics of proteins. The predictor utilizes a multiple linear regression model with weighted coefficients of various terms optimized against a set of experimental data. The aforementioned approach yields a correlation coefficient of 0.65 when benchmarked against 983 cases from 42 proteins in the ProTherm database. the webserver can be accessed via http://compbio.clemson.edu/SAAFEC/.

Spatial correlation and irradiance statistics in a multiple-beam terrestrial free-space optical communication link.

PubMed

Anguita, Jaime A; Neifeld, Mark A; Vasic, Bane V

2007-09-10

By means of numerical simulations we analyze the statistical properties of the power fluctuations induced by the incoherent superposition of multiple transmitted laser beams in a terrestrial free-space optical communication link. The measured signals arising from different transmitted optical beams are found to be statistically correlated. This channel correlation increases with receiver aperture and propagation distance. We find a simple scaling rule for the spatial correlation coefficient in terms of the propagation distance and we are able to predict the scintillation reduction in previously reported experiments with good accuracy. We propose an approximation to the probability density function of the received power of a spatially correlated multiple-beam system in terms of the parameters of the single-channel gamma-gamma function. A bit-error-rate evaluation is also presented to demonstrate the improvement of a multibeam system over its single-beam counterpart.

Personalized long-term prediction of cognitive function: Using sequential assessments to improve model performance.

PubMed

Chi, Chih-Lin; Zeng, Wenjun; Oh, Wonsuk; Borson, Soo; Lenskaia, Tatiana; Shen, Xinpeng; Tonellato, Peter J

2017-12-01

Prediction of onset and progression of cognitive decline and dementia is important both for understanding the underlying disease processes and for planning health care for populations at risk. Predictors identified in research studies are typically accessed at one point in time. In this manuscript, we argue that an accurate model for predicting cognitive status over relatively long periods requires inclusion of time-varying components that are sequentially assessed at multiple time points (e.g., in multiple follow-up visits). We developed a pilot model to test the feasibility of using either estimated or observed risk factors to predict cognitive status. We developed two models, the first using a sequential estimation of risk factors originally obtained from 8 years prior, then improved by optimization. This model can predict how cognition will change over relatively long time periods. The second model uses observed rather than estimated time-varying risk factors and, as expected, results in better prediction. This model can predict when newly observed data are acquired in a follow-up visit. Performances of both models that are evaluated in10-fold cross-validation and various patient subgroups show supporting evidence for these pilot models. Each model consists of multiple base prediction units (BPUs), which were trained using the same set of data. The difference in usage and function between the two models is the source of input data: either estimated or observed data. In the next step of model refinement, we plan to integrate the two types of data together to flexibly predict dementia status and changes over time, when some time-varying predictors are measured only once and others are measured repeatedly. Computationally, both data provide upper and lower bounds for predictive performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

2014-12-01

Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

Reply to “Dicing with earthquakes,” by Paul W. Burton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.

The paper by Burton [1996], besides its unusual title, contains a lot of points that are inaccurate, or erroneous. A clear misuse of statistics is made by Burton, because he handles values of one parameter (i.e., magnitude) without paying attention to essential points like the following: the magnitude value of a prediction referring to a main shock in an area, which becomes very rarely active with such events, cannot be treated equally with a prediction that may have the same magnitude value, but refers to an aftershock in another area. By using simple rules of statistics, we show that the statistical treatment used by Burton is obviously wrong and can “reject” even an ideal prediction method. Furthermore, we show that Burton's criticism on the magnitudes predicted by VAN, is based on a clear misinterpretation of the true meaning of the experimental error and of Gutenberg-Richter relation; the related Burton's claims, contradict the physical expectation. The appropriate spatial resolution of an earthquake prediction is also discussed. For magnitudes between 5.5 and 6.0, the spatial resolution usually achieved by VAN is around 50km; such a value is reasonable from practical point of view, if we also consider the dimensions of the source. For larger magnitudes, i.e., around 7.5, a spatial resolution of ˜150km would be accepted. Therefore, Burton's [1996] claims for VAN to increase the spatial resolution are unjustified, as they have some basis only for smaller events (˜5.0-units) which, however, have no much practical interest. Last but not least, Burton uses unusual phrases like “a posteriori demonstration of predictions prevailed,” “unclear retrospective filters” or “too much is often claimed from too little,” but does not mention facts, e.g., that during the three years period under discussion (i.e., 1987-1989) VAN issued only one public alarm, which was followed by the most strong and destructive activity during this period.

[Application of damage control concept in severe limbs fractures combining with multiple trauma].

PubMed

Bayin, Er-gu-le; Jin, Hong-bing; Li, Ming

2015-09-01

To discuss the application and clinical effect of damage control concept in the treatment of severe limbs fractures combining with multiple trauma. From July 2009 to July 2012, 30 patients with severe limbs fractures combining with multiple trauma were treated with the damage control concept, included 20 males and 10 females with an average age of (34.03 ± 12.81) years old ranging from 20 to 60 years old; the ISS averaged (35.00 ± 12.81) points (ranged from 26 to 54 points). And the control group also contained 30 patients with severe limbs fractures combining with multiple trauma treated by the traditional operation from June 2006 to June 2009, there were 23 males and 7 females with an average age of (34.23 ± 11.04) years old ranging from 18 to 65 years old. The ISS averaged (35.56 ± 11.04) points (ranged from 26 to 51 points). The age, gender, ISS, Gustilo classification, operation time, intraoperative blood loss, blood transfusion,postoperative complications and mortality rate were observed and compared. In the damage control concept group,there were 28 cases surviving and 2 cases (6.7%) death; 6 cases of postoperative complication included 2 cases of adult respiratory distress syndrome, 1 case of multiple organ failure, 1 case of disseminated intravascular coagulation and 2 cases of wound infection. In the control group, there were 22 cases surviving and 8 cases death(26.7%); 13 cases of postoperative complication included 4 cases of adult respiratory distress syndrome,2 cases of multiple organ failure, 2 cases of disseminated intravascular coagulation and 3 cases of wound infection. There were no statistically significant differences between two groups in age, gender, ISS, Gustilo classfication and complication (P > 0.05), however there were statistically significant differences in mortality rate, operation time, blodd loss, blodd transfusion between two groups (P < 0.05). Damage control concept is used to treat severe limbs fractures combining with multiple trauma which has the rapid and effective therapy, can improve survival rate and reduce complication.

Advanced Statistics for Exotic Animal Practitioners.

PubMed

Hodsoll, John; Hellier, Jennifer M; Ryan, Elizabeth G

2017-09-01

Correlation and regression assess the association between 2 or more variables. This article reviews the core knowledge needed to understand these analyses, moving from visual analysis in scatter plots through correlation, simple and multiple linear regression, and logistic regression. Correlation estimates the strength and direction of a relationship between 2 variables. Regression can be considered more general and quantifies the numerical relationships between an outcome and 1 or multiple variables in terms of a best-fit line, allowing predictions to be made. Each technique is discussed with examples and the statistical assumptions underlying their correct application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomechanical, anthropometric, and psychological determinants of barbell back squat strength.

PubMed

Vigotsky, Andrew D; Bryanton, Megan A; Nuckols, Greg; Beardsley, Chris; Contreras, Bret; Evans, Jessica; Schoenfeld, Brad J

2018-02-27

Previous investigations of strength have only focused on biomechanical or psychological determinants, while ignoring the potential interplay and relative contributions of these variables. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative contributions of biomechanical, anthropometric, and psychological variables to the prediction of maximum parallel barbell back squat strength. Twenty-one college-aged participants (male = 14; female = 7; age = 23 ± 3 years) reported to the laboratory for two visits. The first visit consisted of anthropometric, psychometric, and parallel barbell back squat one-repetition maximum (1RM) testing. On the second visit, participants performed isometric dynamometry testing for the knee, hip, and spinal extensors in a sticking point position-specific manner. Multiple linear regression and correlations were used to investigate the combined and individual relationships between biomechanical, anthropometric, and psychological variables and squat 1RM. Multiple regression revealed only one statistically predictive determinant: fat free mass normalized to height (standardized estimate ± SE = 0.6 ± 0.3; t(16) = 2.28; p = 0.037). Correlation coefficients for individual variables and squat 1RM ranged from r = -0.79-0.83, with biomechanical, anthropometric, experiential, and sex predictors showing the strongest relationships, and psychological variables displaying the weakest relationships. These data suggest that back squat strength in a heterogeneous population is multifactorial and more related to physical rather than psychological variables.

Simple to complex modeling of breathing volume using a motion sensor.

PubMed

John, Dinesh; Staudenmayer, John; Freedson, Patty

2013-06-01

To compare simple and complex modeling techniques to estimate categories of low, medium, and high ventilation (VE) from ActiGraph™ activity counts. Vertical axis ActiGraph™ GT1M activity counts, oxygen consumption and VE were measured during treadmill walking and running, sports, household chores and labor-intensive employment activities. Categories of low (<19.3 l/min), medium (19.3 to 35.4 l/min) and high (>35.4 l/min) VEs were derived from activity intensity classifications (light <2.9 METs, moderate 3.0 to 5.9 METs and vigorous >6.0 METs). We examined the accuracy of two simple techniques (multiple regression and activity count cut-point analyses) and one complex (random forest technique) modeling technique in predicting VE from activity counts. Prediction accuracy of the complex random forest technique was marginally better than the simple multiple regression method. Both techniques accurately predicted VE categories almost 80% of the time. The multiple regression and random forest techniques were more accurate (85 to 88%) in predicting medium VE. Both techniques predicted the high VE (70 to 73%) with greater accuracy than low VE (57 to 60%). Actigraph™ cut-points for light, medium and high VEs were <1381, 1381 to 3660 and >3660 cpm. There were minor differences in prediction accuracy between the multiple regression and the random forest technique. This study provides methods to objectively estimate VE categories using activity monitors that can easily be deployed in the field. Objective estimates of VE should provide a better understanding of the dose-response relationship between internal exposure to pollutants and disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction to bioinformatics.

PubMed

Can, Tolga

2014-01-01

Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary field mainly involving molecular biology and genetics, computer science, mathematics, and statistics. Data intensive, large-scale biological problems are addressed from a computational point of view. The most common problems are modeling biological processes at the molecular level and making inferences from collected data. A bioinformatics solution usually involves the following steps: Collect statistics from biological data. Build a computational model. Solve a computational modeling problem. Test and evaluate a computational algorithm. This chapter gives a brief introduction to bioinformatics by first providing an introduction to biological terminology and then discussing some classical bioinformatics problems organized by the types of data sources. Sequence analysis is the analysis of DNA and protein sequences for clues regarding function and includes subproblems such as identification of homologs, multiple sequence alignment, searching sequence patterns, and evolutionary analyses. Protein structures are three-dimensional data and the associated problems are structure prediction (secondary and tertiary), analysis of protein structures for clues regarding function, and structural alignment. Gene expression data is usually represented as matrices and analysis of microarray data mostly involves statistics analysis, classification, and clustering approaches. Biological networks such as gene regulatory networks, metabolic pathways, and protein-protein interaction networks are usually modeled as graphs and graph theoretic approaches are used to solve associated problems such as construction and analysis of large-scale networks.

Admissions Criteria as Predictors of Academic Performance in a Three-Year Pharmacy Program at a Historically Black Institution

PubMed Central

Parmar, Jayesh R.; Purnell, Miriam; Lang, Lynn A.

2016-01-01

Objective. To determine the ability of University of Maryland Eastern Shore School of Pharmacy’s admissions criteria to predict students’ academic performance in a 3-year pharmacy program and to analyze transferability to African-American students. Methods. Statistical analyses were conducted on retrospective data for 174 students. Didactic and experiential scores were used as measures of academic performance. Results. Pharmacy College Admission Test (PCAT), grade point average (GPA), interview, and observational scores combined with previous pharmacy experience and biochemistry coursework predicted the students' academic performance except second-year (P2) experiential performance. For African-American students, didactic performance positively correlated with PCAT writing subtests, while the experiential performance positively correlated with previous pharmacy experience and observational score. For nonAfrican-American students, didactic performance positively correlated with PCAT multiple-choice subtests, and experiential performance with interview score. The prerequisite GPA positively correlated with both of the student subgroups’ didactic performance. Conclusion. Both PCAT and GPA were predictors of didactic performance, especially in nonAfrican-Americans. Pharmacy experience and observational scores were predictors of experiential performance, especially in African-Americans. PMID:26941432

A Survey of Insider Attack Detection Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-25

modeling of statistical features , such as the frequency of events, the duration of events, the co-occurrence of multiple events combined through...forms of attack that have been reported [Error! Reference source not found.]. For example: • Unauthorized extraction , duplication, or exfiltration...network level. Schultz pointed out that not one approach will work but solutions need to be based on multiple sensors to be able to find any combination

Efficient exploration of pan-cancer networks by generalized covariance selection and interactive web content

PubMed Central

Kling, Teresia; Johansson, Patrik; Sanchez, José; Marinescu, Voichita D.; Jörnsten, Rebecka; Nelander, Sven

2015-01-01

Statistical network modeling techniques are increasingly important tools to analyze cancer genomics data. However, current tools and resources are not designed to work across multiple diagnoses and technical platforms, thus limiting their applicability to comprehensive pan-cancer datasets such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). To address this, we describe a new data driven modeling method, based on generalized Sparse Inverse Covariance Selection (SICS). The method integrates genetic, epigenetic and transcriptional data from multiple cancers, to define links that are present in multiple cancers, a subset of cancers, or a single cancer. It is shown to be statistically robust and effective at detecting direct pathway links in data from TCGA. To facilitate interpretation of the results, we introduce a publicly accessible tool (cancerlandscapes.org), in which the derived networks are explored as interactive web content, linked to several pathway and pharmacological databases. To evaluate the performance of the method, we constructed a model for eight TCGA cancers, using data from 3900 patients. The model rediscovered known mechanisms and contained interesting predictions. Possible applications include prediction of regulatory relationships, comparison of network modules across multiple forms of cancer and identification of drug targets. PMID:25953855

Tumor or abnormality identification from magnetic resonance images using statistical region fusion based segmentation.

PubMed

Subudhi, Badri Narayan; Thangaraj, Veerakumar; Sankaralingam, Esakkirajan; Ghosh, Ashish

2016-11-01

In this article, a statistical fusion based segmentation technique is proposed to identify different abnormality in magnetic resonance images (MRI). The proposed scheme follows seed selection, region growing-merging and fusion of multiple image segments. In this process initially, an image is divided into a number of blocks and for each block we compute the phase component of the Fourier transform. The phase component of each block reflects the gray level variation among the block but contains a large correlation among them. Hence a singular value decomposition (SVD) technique is adhered to generate a singular value of each block. Then a thresholding procedure is applied on these singular values to identify edgy and smooth regions and some seed points are selected for segmentation. By considering each seed point we perform a binary segmentation of the complete MRI and hence with all seed points we get an equal number of binary images. A parcel based statistical fusion process is used to fuse all the binary images into multiple segments. Effectiveness of the proposed scheme is tested on identifying different abnormalities: prostatic carcinoma detection, tuberculous granulomas identification and intracranial neoplasm or brain tumor detection. The proposed technique is established by comparing its results against seven state-of-the-art techniques with six performance evaluation measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating the ACR Appropriateness Criteria Into the Radiology Clerkship: Comparison of Didactic Format and Group-Based Learning.

PubMed

Stein, Marjorie W; Frank, Susan J; Roberts, Jeffrey H; Finkelstein, Malka; Heo, Moonseong

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether group-based or didactic teaching is more effective to teach ACR Appropriateness Criteria to medical students. An identical pretest, posttest, and delayed multiple-choice test was used to evaluate the efficacy of the two teaching methods. Descriptive statistics comparing test scores were obtained. On the posttest, the didactic group gained 12.5 points (P < .0001), and the group-based learning students gained 16.3 points (P < .0001). On the delayed test, the didactic group gained 14.4 points (P < .0001), and the group-based learning students gained 11.8 points (P < .001). The gains in scores on both tests were statistically significant for both groups. However, the differences in scores were not statistically significant comparing the two educational methods. Compared with didactic lectures, group-based learning is more enjoyable, time efficient, and equally efficacious. The choice of educational method can be individualized for each institution on the basis of group size, time constraints, and faculty availability. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the statistic al properties of pulses in atmospheric corona discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, L.; Koller, J.; Plocek, J.; Stanék, Z.

2000-03-01

The properties of the negative corona current pulses in a single point-to-plane configuration have been extensively studied by many investigators. The amplitude and the interval of these pulses are not generally constant and depend on many variables. The repetition rate and the amplitude of the pulses fluctuate in time. Since these fluctuations are subject to a certain probability distribution, the statistical processing was used for the analysis of the pulse fluctuations. The behavior of the pulses has been also investigated in a multipoint geometry configuration. The dependence of the behavior of the corona pulses on the gap lengths, the material, the shape of the point electrode, the number and separation of electrodes (in the multiple-point mode) has been investigated, too. No detailed study has been carried out up to now for this case. The attention has been devoted also to the study of the pulses on the points of live materials (needles of coniferous trees). This contribution describes recent studies of the statistical properties of the pulses for various conditions.

[Influence of educational status, burn area and coping behaviors on the complication of psychological disorders in severely burned patients].

PubMed

Cheng, Hua; Li, Xiao-jian; Cao, Wen-juan; Chen, Li-ying; Zhang, Zhi; Liu, Zhi-he; Yi, Xian-feng; Lai, Wen

2013-04-01

To discuss how the educational status, burn area and coping behaviors influence the psychological disorders in severely burned patients. Sixty-four severely burned patients hospitalized in Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital, Guangdong Provincial Work Injury Rehabilitation Center, and Guangdong General Hospital were enrolled with cluster random sampling method. Data of their demography and situation of burns were collected. Then their coping behavior, psychological disorders including anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) plus its core symptoms of flashback, avoidance, and hypervigilance were assessed by medical coping modes questionnaire, self-rating anxiety scale (SAS), self-rating depression scale (SDS), PTSD checklist-civilian version (PCL-C) respectively. Correlation was analyzed between demography, burn area, coping behavior and psychological disorders. The predictive powers of educational status, burn area and coping behaviors on the psychological disorders were analyzed. The qualitative variables were assigned values. Data were processed with t test, Spearman rank correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis. (1) The patients scored (19.0 ± 3.4) points in confrontation coping behavior, which showed no statistically significant difference from the domestic norm score (19.5 ± 3.8) points (t = -1.13, P > 0.05). The patients scored (16.6 ± 2.4) and (11.0 ± 2.2) points in avoidance and resignation coping behaviors, which were significantly higher than the domestic norm score (14.4 ± 3.0), (8.8 ± 3.2) points (with t values respectively 7.06 and 7.76, P values both below 0.01). The patients' standard score of SAS, SDS, PCL-C were (50 ± 11), (54 ± 11), and (38 ± 12) points. Respectively 89.1% (57/64), 60.9% (39/64), 46.9% (30/64) of the patients showed anxiety, depression, and PTSD symptoms. (2) Four independent variables: age, gender, marital status, and time after burns, were correlated with the psychological disorders, but the correlativity was not statistically significant (with rs values from -0.089 to 0.245, P values all above 0.05). Educational status was significantly negatively correlated with anxiety, depression, PTSD and its core symptoms of flashback, avoidance (with rs values from -0.361 to -0.253, P values all below 0.05). Educational status was negatively correlated with hypervigilance, but the correlativity was not statistically significant (rs = -0.187, P > 0.05). Burn area was significantly positively correlated with the psychological disorders (with rs values from 0.306 to 0.478, P values all below 0.05). Confrontation coping behavior was positively correlated with the psychological disorders, but the correlativity was not statistically significant (with rs values from 0.121 to 0.550, P values all above 0.05). Avoidance coping behavior was correlated with the psychological disorders, but the correlativity was not statistically significant (with rs values from -0.144 to 0.193, P values all above 0.05). Resignation coping behavior was significantly positively correlated with the psychological disorder (with rs values from 0.377 to 0.596, P values all below 0.01). (3) Educational status had predictive power on the anxiety, PTSD and flash back symptoms of patients (with t values from -2.19 to -2.02, P values all below 0.05), but not on depression, avoidance and hypervigilance (with t values from -1.95 to -0.99, P values all above 0.05). Burn area had no predictive power on the psychological disorders (with t values from 0.55 to 1.78, P values all above 0.05). Resignation coping behavior had predictive power on the psychological disorders (with t values from 3.10 to 6.46, P values below 0.01). Confrontation and avoidance coping behaviors had no predictive power on the psychological disorders (with t values from 0.46 to 2.32 and -0.89 and 1.75 respectively, P values all above 0.05). The severely burned patients with lower educational status, larger burn area, and the more frequently adapted resignation coping behavior are more likely to suffer from anxiety, depression, and PTSD.

The Statistical point of view of Quality: the Lean Six Sigma methodology

PubMed Central

Viti, Andrea; Terzi, Alberto

2015-01-01

Six Sigma and Lean are two quality improvement methodologies. The Lean Six Sigma methodology is applicable to repetitive procedures. Therefore, the use of this methodology in the health-care arena has focused mainly on areas of business operations, throughput, and case management and has focused on efficiency outcomes. After the revision of methodology, the paper presents a brief clinical example of the use of Lean Six Sigma as a quality improvement method in the reduction of the complications during and after lobectomies. Using Lean Six Sigma methodology, the multidisciplinary teams could identify multiple modifiable points across the surgical process. These process improvements could be applied to different surgical specialties and could result in a measurement, from statistical point of view, of the surgical quality. PMID:25973253

The Statistical point of view of Quality: the Lean Six Sigma methodology.

PubMed

Bertolaccini, Luca; Viti, Andrea; Terzi, Alberto

2015-04-01

Six Sigma and Lean are two quality improvement methodologies. The Lean Six Sigma methodology is applicable to repetitive procedures. Therefore, the use of this methodology in the health-care arena has focused mainly on areas of business operations, throughput, and case management and has focused on efficiency outcomes. After the revision of methodology, the paper presents a brief clinical example of the use of Lean Six Sigma as a quality improvement method in the reduction of the complications during and after lobectomies. Using Lean Six Sigma methodology, the multidisciplinary teams could identify multiple modifiable points across the surgical process. These process improvements could be applied to different surgical specialties and could result in a measurement, from statistical point of view, of the surgical quality.

Curvelet-domain multiple matching method combined with cubic B-spline function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Wang, Deli; Tian, Mi; Hu, Bin; Liu, Chengming

2018-05-01

Since the large amount of surface-related multiple existed in the marine data would influence the results of data processing and interpretation seriously, many researchers had attempted to develop effective methods to remove them. The most successful surface-related multiple elimination method was proposed based on data-driven theory. However, the elimination effect was unsatisfactory due to the existence of amplitude and phase errors. Although the subsequent curvelet-domain multiple-primary separation method achieved better results, poor computational efficiency prevented its application. In this paper, we adopt the cubic B-spline function to improve the traditional curvelet multiple matching method. First, select a little number of unknowns as the basis points of the matching coefficient; second, apply the cubic B-spline function on these basis points to reconstruct the matching array; third, build constraint solving equation based on the relationships of predicted multiple, matching coefficients, and actual data; finally, use the BFGS algorithm to iterate and realize the fast-solving sparse constraint of multiple matching algorithm. Moreover, the soft-threshold method is used to make the method perform better. With the cubic B-spline function, the differences between predicted multiple and original data diminish, which results in less processing time to obtain optimal solutions and fewer iterative loops in the solving procedure based on the L1 norm constraint. The applications to synthetic and field-derived data both validate the practicability and validity of the method.

Analysis of methods to estimate spring flows in a karst aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, N.

2009-01-01

Hydraulically and statistically based methods were analyzed to identify the most reliable method to predict spring flows in a karst aquifer. Measured water levels at nearby observation wells, measured spring pool altitudes, and the distance between observation wells and the spring pool were the parameters used to match measured spring flows. Measured spring flows at six Upper Floridan aquifer springs in central Florida were used to assess the reliability of these methods to predict spring flows. Hydraulically based methods involved the application of the Theis, Hantush-Jacob, and Darcy-Weisbach equations, whereas the statistically based methods were the multiple linear regressions and the technology of artificial neural networks (ANNs). Root mean square errors between measured and predicted spring flows using the Darcy-Weisbach method ranged between 5% and 15% of the measured flows, lower than the 7% to 27% range for the Theis or Hantush-Jacob methods. Flows at all springs were estimated to be turbulent based on the Reynolds number derived from the Darcy-Weisbach equation for conduit flow. The multiple linear regression and the Darcy-Weisbach methods had similar spring flow prediction capabilities. The ANNs provided the lowest residuals between measured and predicted spring flows, ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% of the measured flows. The model prediction efficiency criteria also indicated that the ANNs were the most accurate method predicting spring flows in a karst aquifer. ?? 2008 National Ground Water Association.

Analysis of methods to estimate spring flows in a karst aquifer.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio

2009-01-01

Hydraulically and statistically based methods were analyzed to identify the most reliable method to predict spring flows in a karst aquifer. Measured water levels at nearby observation wells, measured spring pool altitudes, and the distance between observation wells and the spring pool were the parameters used to match measured spring flows. Measured spring flows at six Upper Floridan aquifer springs in central Florida were used to assess the reliability of these methods to predict spring flows. Hydraulically based methods involved the application of the Theis, Hantush-Jacob, and Darcy-Weisbach equations, whereas the statistically based methods were the multiple linear regressions and the technology of artificial neural networks (ANNs). Root mean square errors between measured and predicted spring flows using the Darcy-Weisbach method ranged between 5% and 15% of the measured flows, lower than the 7% to 27% range for the Theis or Hantush-Jacob methods. Flows at all springs were estimated to be turbulent based on the Reynolds number derived from the Darcy-Weisbach equation for conduit flow. The multiple linear regression and the Darcy-Weisbach methods had similar spring flow prediction capabilities. The ANNs provided the lowest residuals between measured and predicted spring flows, ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% of the measured flows. The model prediction efficiency criteria also indicated that the ANNs were the most accurate method predicting spring flows in a karst aquifer.

Electron teleportation and statistical transmutation in multiterminal Majorana islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaeli, Karen; Landau, L. Aviad; Sela, Eran; Fu, Liang

2017-11-01

We study a topological superconductor island with spatially separated Majorana modes coupled to multiple normal-metal leads by single-electron tunneling in the Coulomb blockade regime. We show that low-temperature transport in such a Majorana island is carried by an emergent charge-e boson composed of a Majorana mode and an electronic excitation in leads. This transmutation from Fermi to Bose statistics has remarkable consequences. For noninteracting leads, the system flows to a non-Fermi-liquid fixed point, which is stable against tunnel couplings anisotropy or detuning away from the charge-degeneracy point. As a result, the system exhibits a universal conductance at zero temperature, which is a fraction of the conductance quantum, and low-temperature corrections with a universal power-law exponent. In addition, we consider Majorana islands connected to interacting one-dimensional leads, and find different stable fixed points near and far from the charge-degeneracy point.

Reliability of intensive care unit admitting and comorbid diagnoses, race, elements of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and predicted probability of mortality in an electronic intensive care unit database.

PubMed

Wenner, Joshua B; Norena, Monica; Khan, Nadia; Palepu, Anita; Ayas, Najib T; Wong, Hubert; Dodek, Peter M

2009-09-01

Although reliability of severity of illness and predicted probability of hospital mortality have been assessed, interrater reliability of the abstraction of primary and other intensive care unit (ICU) admitting diagnoses and underlying comorbidities has not been studied. Patient data from one ICU were originally abstracted and entered into an electronic database by an ICU nurse. A research assistant reabstracted patient demographics, ICU admitting diagnoses and underlying comorbidities, and elements of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score from 100 random patients of 474 admitted during 2005 using an identical electronic database. Chamberlain's percent positive agreement was used to compare diagnoses and comorbidities between the 2 data abstractors. A kappa statistic was calculated for demographic variables, Glasgow Coma Score, APACHE II chronic health points, and HIV status. Intraclass correlation was calculated for acute physiology points and predicted probability of hospital mortality. Percent positive agreement for ICU primary and other admitting diagnoses ranged from 0% (primary brain injury) to 71% (sepsis), and for underlying comorbidities, from 40% (coronary artery bypass graft) to 100% (HIV). Agreement as measured by kappa statistic was strong for race (0.81) and age points (0.95), moderate for chronic health points (0.50) and HIV (0.66), and poor for Glasgow Coma Score (0.36). Intraclass correlation showed a moderate-high agreement for acute physiology points (0.88) and predicted probability of hospital mortality (0.71). Reliability for ICU diagnoses and elements of the APACHE II score is related to the objectivity of primary data in the medical charts.

Setting Environmental Standards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fishbein, Gershon

1975-01-01

Recent court decisions have pointed out the complexities involved in setting environmental standards. Environmental health is composed of multiple causative agents, most of which work over long periods of time. This makes the cause-and-effect relationship between health statistics and environmental contaminant exposures difficult to prove in…

Design of a testing strategy using non-animal based test methods: lessons learnt from the ACuteTox project.

PubMed

Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Prieto, Pilar; Kinsner-Ovaskainen, Agnieszka; Stanzel, Sven

2013-06-01

In the framework of toxicology, a testing strategy can be viewed as a series of steps which are taken to come to a final prediction about a characteristic of a compound under study. The testing strategy is performed as a single-step procedure, usually called a test battery, using simultaneously all information collected on different endpoints, or as tiered approach in which a decision tree is followed. Design of a testing strategy involves statistical considerations, such as the development of a statistical prediction model. During the EU FP6 ACuteTox project, several prediction models were proposed on the basis of statistical classification algorithms which we illustrate here. The final choice of testing strategies was not based on statistical considerations alone. However, without thorough statistical evaluations a testing strategy cannot be identified. We present here a number of observations made from the statistical viewpoint which relate to the development of testing strategies. The points we make were derived from problems we had to deal with during the evaluation of this large research project. A central issue during the development of a prediction model is the danger of overfitting. Procedures are presented to deal with this challenge. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validity of the Test of Infant Motor Performance for prediction of 6-, 9- and 12-month scores on the Alberta Infant Motor Scale.

PubMed

Campbell, Suzann K; Kolobe, Thubi H A; Wright, Benjamin D; Linacre, John Michael

2002-04-01

The Test of Infant Motor Performance (TIMP) is a test of functional movement in infants from 32 weeks' post-conceptional age to 4 months postterm. The purpose of this study was to assess in 96 infants (44 females, 52 males) with varying risk, the relation between measures on the TIMP at 7, 30, 60, and 90 days after term age and percentile ranks (PR) on the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS). Correlation between scores on the TIMP and the AIMS was highest for TIMP tests at 90 days and AIMS testing at 6 months (r=0.67, p=0.0001), but all comparisons were statistically significant except those between the TIMP at 7 days and AIMS PR at 9 months. In a multiple regression analysis combining a perinatal risk score and 7-day TIMP measures to predict 12-month AIMS PR, risk, but not TIMP, predicted outcome (21% of variance explained). At older ages TIMP measures made increasing contributions to prediction of 12-month AIMS PR (30% of variance explained by 90-day TIMP). The best TIMP score to maximize specificity and correctly identify 84% of the infants above versus below the 10th PR at 6 months was a cut-off point of 1 SD below the mean. The same cut-off point correctly identified 88% of the infants at 12 months. A cut-off of -0.5 SD, however, maximized sensitivity at 92%. A negative test result, i.e. score above -0.5 SD at 3 months, carried only a 2% probability of a poor 12-month outcome. We conclude that TIMP scores significantly predict AIMS PR 6 to 12 months later, but the TIMP at 3 months of age has the greatest degree of validity for predicting motor performance on the AIMS at 12 months and can be used clinically to identify infants likely to benefit from intervention.

Validity of Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Korean Revised Version for Screening Alcohol Use Disorder according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition Criteria.

PubMed

Chang, Jung Wei; Kim, Jong Sung; Jung, Jin Gyu; Kim, Sung Soo; Yoon, Seok Joon; Jang, Hak Sun

2016-11-01

The Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) has been widely used to identify alcohol use disorder (AUD). This study evaluated the validity of the AUDIT-Korean revised version (AUDIT-KR) for screening AUD according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5) criteria. This research was conducted with 443 subjects who visited the Chungnam National University Hospital for a comprehensive medical examination. All subjects completed the demographic questionnaire and AUDIT-KR without assistance. Subjects were divided into two groups according to DSM-5 criteria: an AUD group, which included patients that fit the criteria for AUD (120 males and 21 females), and a non-AUD group, which included 146 males and 156 females that did not meet AUD criteria. The appropriate cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the AUDIT-KR were evaluated. The mean±standard deviation AUDIT-KR scores were 10.32±7.48 points in males and 3.23±4.42 points in females. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval, CI) of the AUDIT-KR for identifying AUD was 0.884 (0.840-0.920) in males and 0.962 (0.923-0.985) in females. The optimal cut-off value of the AUDIT-KR was 10 points for males (sensitivity, 81.90%; specificity, 81.33%; positive predictive value, 77.2%; negative predictive value, 85.3%) and 5 points for females (sensitivity, 100.00%; specificity, 88.54%; positive predictive value, 52.6%; negative predictive value, 100.0%). The AUDIT-KR has high reliability and validity for identifying AUD according to DSM-5 criteria.

Simulating the complex output of rainfall and hydrological processes using the information contained in large data sets: the Direct Sampling approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, Fabio

2017-04-01

The unpredictable nature of rainfall makes its estimation as much difficult as it is essential to hydrological applications. Stochastic simulation is often considered a convenient approach to asses the uncertainty of rainfall processes, but preserving their irregular behavior and variability at multiple scales is a challenge even for the most advanced techniques. In this presentation, an overview on the Direct Sampling technique [1] and its recent application to rainfall and hydrological data simulation [2, 3] is given. The algorithm, having its roots in multiple-point statistics, makes use of a training data set to simulate the outcome of a process without inferring any explicit probability measure: the data are simulated in time or space by sampling the training data set where a sufficiently similar group of neighbor data exists. This approach allows preserving complex statistical dependencies at different scales with a good approximation, while reducing the parameterization to the minimum. The straights and weaknesses of the Direct Sampling approach are shown through a series of applications to rainfall and hydrological data: from time-series simulation to spatial rainfall fields conditioned by elevation or a climate scenario. In the era of vast databases, is this data-driven approach a valid alternative to parametric simulation techniques? [1] Mariethoz G., Renard P., and Straubhaar J. (2010), The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations, Water. Rerous. Res., 46(11), http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007621 [2] Oriani F., Straubhaar J., Renard P., and Mariethoz G. (2014), Simulation of rainfall time series from different climatic regions using the direct sampling technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015-3031, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014 [3] Oriani F., Borghi A., Straubhaar J., Mariethoz G., Renard P. (2016), Missing data simulation inside flow rate time-series using multiple-point statistics, Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 86, pp. 264 - 276, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.002

Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of pediatric metabolic syndrome components in relation to adult metabolic syndrome: the Princeton LRC follow-up study.

PubMed

Huang, Terry T-K; Nansel, Tonja R; Belsheim, Allen R; Morrison, John A

2008-02-01

To estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of pediatric metabolic syndrome (MetS) components (obesity, fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, and blood pressure) at various cutoff points in relation to adult MetS. Data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Lipid Research Clinics Princeton Prevalence Study (1973-1976) and the Princeton Follow-up Study (2000-2004) were used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for each component at a given cutoff point and for aggregates of components. Individual pediatric components alone showed low to moderate sensitivity, high specificity, and moderate predictive values in relation to adult MetS. When all 5 pediatric MetS components were considered, the presence of at least 1 abnormality had higher sensitivity for adult MetS than individual components alone. When multiple abnormalities were mandatory for MetS, positive predictive value was high and sensitivity was low. Childhood body mass alone showed neither high sensitivity nor high positive predictive value for adult MetS. Considering multiple metabolic variables in childhood can improve the predictive usefulness for adult MetS, compared with each component or body mass alone. MetS variables may be useful for identifying some children who are at risk for prevention interventions.

Multiple response optimization of processing and formulation parameters of Eudragit RL/RS-based matrix tablets for sustained delivery of diclofenac.

PubMed

Elzayat, Ehab M; Abdel-Rahman, Ali A; Ahmed, Sayed M; Alanazi, Fars K; Habib, Walid A; Sakr, Adel

2017-11-01

Multiple response optimization is an efficient technique to develop sustained release formulation while decreasing the number of experiments based on trial and error approach. Diclofenac matrix tablets were optimized to achieve a release profile conforming to USP monograph, matching Voltaren ® SR and withstand formulation variables. The percent of drug released at predetermined multiple time points were the response variables in the design. Statistical models were obtained with relative contour diagrams being overlaid to predict process and formulation parameters expected to produce the target release profile. Tablets were prepared by wet granulation using mixture of equivalent quantities of Eudragit RL/RS at overall polymer concentration of 10-30%w/w and compressed at 5-15KN. Drug release from the optimized formulation E4 (15%w/w, 15KN) was similar to Voltaren, conformed to USP monograph and found to be stable. Substituting lactose with mannitol, reversing the ratio between lactose and microcrystalline cellulose or increasing drug load showed no significant difference in drug release. Using dextromethorphan hydrobromide as a model soluble drug showed burst release due to higher solubility and formation of micro cavities. A numerical optimization technique was employed to develop a stable consistent promising formulation for sustained delivery of diclofenac.

Multiple point statistical simulation using uncertain (soft) conditional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Vu, Le Thanh; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

2018-05-01

Geostatistical simulation methods have been used to quantify spatial variability of reservoir models since the 80s. In the last two decades, state of the art simulation methods have changed from being based on covariance-based 2-point statistics to multiple-point statistics (MPS), that allow simulation of more realistic Earth-structures. In addition, increasing amounts of geo-information (geophysical, geological, etc.) from multiple sources are being collected. This pose the problem of integration of these different sources of information, such that decisions related to reservoir models can be taken on an as informed base as possible. In principle, though difficult in practice, this can be achieved using computationally expensive Monte Carlo methods. Here we investigate the use of sequential simulation based MPS simulation methods conditional to uncertain (soft) data, as a computational efficient alternative. First, it is demonstrated that current implementations of sequential simulation based on MPS (e.g. SNESIM, ENESIM and Direct Sampling) do not account properly for uncertain conditional information, due to a combination of using only co-located information, and a random simulation path. Then, we suggest two approaches that better account for the available uncertain information. The first make use of a preferential simulation path, where more informed model parameters are visited preferentially to less informed ones. The second approach involves using non co-located uncertain information. For different types of available data, these approaches are demonstrated to produce simulation results similar to those obtained by the general Monte Carlo based approach. These methods allow MPS simulation to condition properly to uncertain (soft) data, and hence provides a computationally attractive approach for integration of information about a reservoir model.

Pairwise Maximum Entropy Models for Studying Large Biological Systems: When They Can Work and When They Can't

PubMed Central

Roudi, Yasser; Nirenberg, Sheila; Latham, Peter E.

2009-01-01

One of the most critical problems we face in the study of biological systems is building accurate statistical descriptions of them. This problem has been particularly challenging because biological systems typically contain large numbers of interacting elements, which precludes the use of standard brute force approaches. Recently, though, several groups have reported that there may be an alternate strategy. The reports show that reliable statistical models can be built without knowledge of all the interactions in a system; instead, pairwise interactions can suffice. These findings, however, are based on the analysis of small subsystems. Here, we ask whether the observations will generalize to systems of realistic size, that is, whether pairwise models will provide reliable descriptions of true biological systems. Our results show that, in most cases, they will not. The reason is that there is a crossover in the predictive power of pairwise models: If the size of the subsystem is below the crossover point, then the results have no predictive power for large systems. If the size is above the crossover point, then the results may have predictive power. This work thus provides a general framework for determining the extent to which pairwise models can be used to predict the behavior of large biological systems. Applied to neural data, the size of most systems studied so far is below the crossover point. PMID:19424487

How to Assess the Existence of Competing Strategies in Cognitive Tasks: A Primer on the Fixed-Point Property

PubMed Central

van Maanen, Leendert; de Jong, Ritske; van Rijn, Hedderik

2014-01-01

When multiple strategies can be used to solve a type of problem, the observed response time distributions are often mixtures of multiple underlying base distributions each representing one of these strategies. For the case of two possible strategies, the observed response time distributions obey the fixed-point property. That is, there exists one reaction time that has the same probability of being observed irrespective of the actual mixture proportion of each strategy. In this paper we discuss how to compute this fixed-point, and how to statistically assess the probability that indeed the observed response times are generated by two competing strategies. Accompanying this paper is a free R package that can be used to compute and test the presence or absence of the fixed-point property in response time data, allowing for easy to use tests of strategic behavior. PMID:25170893

Statistics based sampling for controller and estimator design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenne, Dirk

The purpose of this research is the development of statistical design tools for robust feed-forward/feedback controllers and nonlinear estimators. This dissertation is threefold and addresses the aforementioned topics nonlinear estimation, target tracking and robust control. To develop statistically robust controllers and nonlinear estimation algorithms, research has been performed to extend existing techniques, which propagate the statistics of the state, to achieve higher order accuracy. The so-called unscented transformation has been extended to capture higher order moments. Furthermore, higher order moment update algorithms based on a truncated power series have been developed. The proposed techniques are tested on various benchmark examples. Furthermore, the unscented transformation has been utilized to develop a three dimensional geometrically constrained target tracker. The proposed planar circular prediction algorithm has been developed in a local coordinate framework, which is amenable to extension of the tracking algorithm to three dimensional space. This tracker combines the predictions of a circular prediction algorithm and a constant velocity filter by utilizing the Covariance Intersection. This combined prediction can be updated with the subsequent measurement using a linear estimator. The proposed technique is illustrated on a 3D benchmark trajectory, which includes coordinated turns and straight line maneuvers. The third part of this dissertation addresses the design of controller which include knowledge of parametric uncertainties and their distributions. The parameter distributions are approximated by a finite set of points which are calculated by the unscented transformation. This set of points is used to design robust controllers which minimize a statistical performance of the plant over the domain of uncertainty consisting of a combination of the mean and variance. The proposed technique is illustrated on three benchmark problems. The first relates to the design of prefilters for a linear and nonlinear spring-mass-dashpot system and the second applies a feedback controller to a hovering helicopter. Lastly, the statistical robust controller design is devoted to a concurrent feed-forward/feedback controller structure for a high-speed low tension tape drive.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Jeremy S. Littell

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong,...

Strength and life criteria for corrugated fiberboard by three methods

Treesearch

Thomas J. Urbanik

1997-01-01

The conventional test method for determining the stacking life of corrugated containers at a fixed load level does not adequately predict a safe load when storage time is fixed. This study introduced multiple load levels and related the probability of time at failure to load. A statistical analysis of logarithm-of-time failure data varying with load level predicts the...

Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Sasmita; Jha, Madan K.

2013-12-01

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.

Test anxiety and academic performance in chiropractic students.

PubMed

Zhang, Niu; Henderson, Charles N R

2014-01-01

Objective : We assessed the level of students' test anxiety, and the relationship between test anxiety and academic performance. Methods : We recruited 166 third-quarter students. The Test Anxiety Inventory (TAI) was administered to all participants. Total scores from written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) were used as response variables. Results : Multiple regression analysis shows that there was a modest, but statistically significant negative correlation between TAI scores and written exam scores, but not OSCE scores. Worry and emotionality were the best predictive models for written exam scores. Mean total anxiety and emotionality scores for females were significantly higher than those for males, but not worry scores. Conclusion : Moderate-to-high test anxiety was observed in 85% of the chiropractic students examined. However, total test anxiety, as measured by the TAI score, was a very weak predictive model for written exam performance. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that replacing total anxiety (TAI) with worry and emotionality (TAI subscales) produces a much more effective predictive model of written exam performance. Sex, age, highest current academic degree, and ethnicity contributed little additional predictive power in either regression model. Moreover, TAI scores were not found to be statistically significant predictors of physical exam skill performance, as measured by OSCEs.

Multiplicative Modeling of Children's Growth and Its Statistical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuninaka, Hiroto; Matsushita, Mitsugu

2014-03-01

We develop a numerical growth model that can predict the statistical properties of the height distribution of Japanese children. Our previous studies have clarified that the height distribution of schoolchildren shows a transition from the lognormal distribution to the normal distribution during puberty. In this study, we demonstrate by simulation that the transition occurs owing to the variability of the onset of puberty.

Message survival and decision dynamics in a class of reactive complex systems subject to external fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Lucatero, C.; Schaum, A.; Alarcon Ramos, L.; Bernal-Jaquez, R.

2014-07-01

In this study, the dynamics of decisions in complex networks subject to external fields are studied within a Markov process framework using nonlinear dynamical systems theory. A mathematical discrete-time model is derived using a set of basic assumptions regarding the convincement mechanisms associated with two competing opinions. The model is analyzed with respect to the multiplicity of critical points and the stability of extinction states. Sufficient conditions for extinction are derived in terms of the convincement probabilities and the maximum eigenvalues of the associated connectivity matrices. The influences of exogenous (e.g., mass media-based) effects on decision behavior are analyzed qualitatively. The current analysis predicts: (i) the presence of fixed-point multiplicity (with a maximum number of four different fixed points), multi-stability, and sensitivity with respect to the process parameters; and (ii) the bounded but significant impact of exogenous perturbations on the decision behavior. These predictions were verified using a set of numerical simulations based on a scale-free network topology.

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between false negative and false positive base pair predictions. Finally, AveRNA can make use of arbitrary sets of secondary structure prediction procedures and can therefore be used to leverage improvements in prediction accuracy offered by algorithms and energy models developed in the future. Our data, MATLAB software and a web-based version of AveRNA are publicly available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Software/AveRNA.

Statistical experiments using the multiple regression research for prediction of proper hardness in areas of phosphorus cast-iron brake shoes manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, I.; Cioată, V. G.; Ratiu, S. A.; Rackov, M.; Penčić, M.

2018-01-01

Multivariate research is important in areas of cast-iron brake shoes manufacturing, because many variables interact with each other simultaneously. This article focuses on expressing the multiple linear regression model related to the hardness assurance by the chemical composition of the phosphorous cast irons destined to the brake shoes, having in view that the regression coefficients will illustrate the unrelated contributions of each independent variable towards predicting the dependent variable. In order to settle the multiple correlations between the hardness of the cast-iron brake shoes, and their chemical compositions several regression equations has been proposed. Is searched a mathematical solution which can determine the optimum chemical composition for the hardness desirable values. Starting from the above-mentioned affirmations two new statistical experiments are effectuated related to the values of Phosphorus [P], Manganese [Mn] and Silicon [Si]. Therefore, the regression equations, which describe the mathematical dependency between the above-mentioned elements and the hardness, are determined. As result, several correlation charts will be revealed.

A perceptual space of local image statistics.

PubMed

Victor, Jonathan D; Thengone, Daniel J; Rizvi, Syed M; Conte, Mary M

2015-12-01

Local image statistics are important for visual analysis of textures, surfaces, and form. There are many kinds of local statistics, including those that capture luminance distributions, spatial contrast, oriented segments, and corners. While sensitivity to each of these kinds of statistics have been well-studied, much less is known about visual processing when multiple kinds of statistics are relevant, in large part because the dimensionality of the problem is high and different kinds of statistics interact. To approach this problem, we focused on binary images on a square lattice - a reduced set of stimuli which nevertheless taps many kinds of local statistics. In this 10-parameter space, we determined psychophysical thresholds to each kind of statistic (16 observers) and all of their pairwise combinations (4 observers). Sensitivities and isodiscrimination contours were consistent across observers. Isodiscrimination contours were elliptical, implying a quadratic interaction rule, which in turn determined ellipsoidal isodiscrimination surfaces in the full 10-dimensional space, and made predictions for sensitivities to complex combinations of statistics. These predictions, including the prediction of a combination of statistics that was metameric to random, were verified experimentally. Finally, check size had only a mild effect on sensitivities over the range from 2.8 to 14min, but sensitivities to second- and higher-order statistics was substantially lower at 1.4min. In sum, local image statistics form a perceptual space that is highly stereotyped across observers, in which different kinds of statistics interact according to simple rules. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A perceptual space of local image statistics

PubMed Central

Victor, Jonathan D.; Thengone, Daniel J.; Rizvi, Syed M.; Conte, Mary M.

2015-01-01

Local image statistics are important for visual analysis of textures, surfaces, and form. There are many kinds of local statistics, including those that capture luminance distributions, spatial contrast, oriented segments, and corners. While sensitivity to each of these kinds of statistics have been well-studied, much less is known about visual processing when multiple kinds of statistics are relevant, in large part because the dimensionality of the problem is high and different kinds of statistics interact. To approach this problem, we focused on binary images on a square lattice – a reduced set of stimuli which nevertheless taps many kinds of local statistics. In this 10-parameter space, we determined psychophysical thresholds to each kind of statistic (16 observers) and all of their pairwise combinations (4 observers). Sensitivities and isodiscrimination contours were consistent across observers. Isodiscrimination contours were elliptical, implying a quadratic interaction rule, which in turn determined ellipsoidal isodiscrimination surfaces in the full 10-dimensional space, and made predictions for sensitivities to complex combinations of statistics. These predictions, including the prediction of a combination of statistics that was metameric to random, were verified experimentally. Finally, check size had only a mild effect on sensitivities over the range from 2.8 to 14 min, but sensitivities to second- and higher-order statistics was substantially lower at 1.4 min. In sum, local image statistics forms a perceptual space that is highly stereotyped across observers, in which different kinds of statistics interact according to simple rules. PMID:26130606

Analysis of Physicochemical and Structural Properties Determining HIV-1 Coreceptor Usage

PubMed Central

Bozek, Katarzyna; Lengauer, Thomas; Sierra, Saleta; Kaiser, Rolf; Domingues, Francisco S.

2013-01-01

The relationship of HIV tropism with disease progression and the recent development of CCR5-blocking drugs underscore the importance of monitoring virus coreceptor usage. As an alternative to costly phenotypic assays, computational methods aim at predicting virus tropism based on the sequence and structure of the V3 loop of the virus gp120 protein. Here we present a numerical descriptor of the V3 loop encoding its physicochemical and structural properties. The descriptor allows for structure-based prediction of HIV tropism and identification of properties of the V3 loop that are crucial for coreceptor usage. Use of the proposed descriptor for prediction results in a statistically significant improvement over the prediction based solely on V3 sequence with 3 percentage points improvement in AUC and 7 percentage points in sensitivity at the specificity of the 11/25 rule (95%). We additionally assessed the predictive power of the new method on clinically derived ‘bulk’ sequence data and obtained a statistically significant improvement in AUC of 3 percentage points over sequence-based prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrated the capacity of our method to predict therapy outcome by applying it to 53 samples from patients undergoing Maraviroc therapy. The analysis of structural features of the loop informative of tropism indicates the importance of two loop regions and their physicochemical properties. The regions are located on opposite strands of the loop stem and the respective features are predominantly charge-, hydrophobicity- and structure-related. These regions are in close proximity in the bound conformation of the loop potentially forming a site determinant for the coreceptor binding. The method is available via server under http://structure.bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/. PMID:23555214

The PLAN score: a bedside prediction rule for death and severe disability following acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Martin J; Fang, Jiming; D'Uva, Cami; Saposnik, Gustavo; Gould, Linda; McGrath, Emer; Kapral, Moira K

2012-11-12

We sought to develop and validate a simple clinical prediction rule for death and severe disability after acute ischemic stroke that can be used by general clinicians at the time of hospital admission. We analyzed data from a registry of 9847 patients (4943 in the derivation cohort and 4904 in the validation cohort) hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke and included in the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network (July 1, 2003, to March 31, 2008; 11 regional stroke centers in Ontario, Canada). Outcome measures were 30-day and 1-year mortality and a modified Rankin score of 5 to 6 at discharge. Overall 30-day mortality was 11.5% (derivation cohort) and 13.5% (validation cohort). In the final multivariate model, we included 9 clinical variables that could be categorized as preadmission comorbidities (5 points for preadmission dependence [1.5], cancer [1.5], congestive heart failure [1.0], and atrial fibrillation [1.0]), level of consciousness (5 points for reduced level of consciousness), age (10 points, 1 point/decade), and neurologic focal deficit (5 points for significant/total weakness of the leg [2], weakness of the arm [2], and aphasia or neglect [1]). Maximum score is 25. In the validation cohort, the PLAN score (derived from preadmission comorbidities, level of consciousness, age, and neurologic deficit) predicted 30-day mortality (C statistic, 0.87), death or severe dependence at discharge (0.88), and 1-year mortality (0.84). The PLAN score also predicted favorable outcome (modified Rankin score, 0-2) at discharge (C statistic, 0.80). The PLAN clinical prediction rule identifies patients who will have a poor outcome after hospitalization for acute ischemic stroke. The score comprises clinical data available at the time of admission and may be determined by nonspecialist clinicians. Additional studies to independently validate the PLAN rule in different populations and settings are required.

Nonlinear predictive control of a boiler-turbine unit: A state-space approach with successive on-line model linearisation and quadratic optimisation.

PubMed

Ławryńczuk, Maciej

2017-03-01

This paper details development of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm for a boiler-turbine unit, which is a nonlinear multiple-input multiple-output process. The control objective is to follow set-point changes imposed on two state (output) variables and to satisfy constraints imposed on three inputs and one output. In order to obtain a computationally efficient control scheme, the state-space model is successively linearised on-line for the current operating point and used for prediction. In consequence, the future control policy is easily calculated from a quadratic optimisation problem. For state estimation the extended Kalman filter is used. It is demonstrated that the MPC strategy based on constant linear models does not work satisfactorily for the boiler-turbine unit whereas the discussed algorithm with on-line successive model linearisation gives practically the same trajectories as the truly nonlinear MPC controller with nonlinear optimisation repeated at each sampling instant. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model of distributed phase aberration for deblurring phase estimated from scattering.

PubMed

Tillett, Jason C; Astheimer, Jeffrey P; Waag, Robert C

2010-01-01

Correction of aberration in ultrasound imaging uses the response of a point reflector or its equivalent to characterize the aberration. Because a point reflector is usually unavailable, its equivalent is obtained using statistical methods, such as processing reflections from multiple focal regions in a random medium. However, the validity of methods that use reflections from multiple points is limited to isoplanatic patches for which the aberration is essentially the same. In this study, aberration is modeled by an offset phase screen to relax the isoplanatic restriction. Methods are developed to determine the depth and phase of the screen and to use the model for compensation of aberration as the beam is steered. Use of the model to enhance the performance of the noted statistical estimation procedure is also described. Experimental results obtained with tissue-mimicking phantoms that implement different models and produce different amounts of aberration are presented to show the efficacy of these methods. The improvement in b-scan resolution realized with the model is illustrated. The results show that the isoplanatic patch assumption for estimation of aberration can be relaxed and that propagation-path characteristics and aberration estimation are closely related.

A multiple-point spatially weighted k-NN method for object-based classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yunwei; Jing, Linhai; Li, Hui; Atkinson, Peter M.

2016-10-01

Object-based classification, commonly referred to as object-based image analysis (OBIA), is now commonly regarded as able to produce more appealing classification maps, often of greater accuracy, than pixel-based classification and its application is now widespread. Therefore, improvement of OBIA using spatial techniques is of great interest. In this paper, multiple-point statistics (MPS) is proposed for object-based classification enhancement in the form of a new multiple-point k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) classification method (MPk-NN). The proposed method first utilises a training image derived from a pre-classified map to characterise the spatial correlation between multiple points of land cover classes. The MPS borrows spatial structures from other parts of the training image, and then incorporates this spatial information, in the form of multiple-point probabilities, into the k-NN classifier. Two satellite sensor images with a fine spatial resolution were selected to evaluate the new method. One is an IKONOS image of the Beijing urban area and the other is a WorldView-2 image of the Wolong mountainous area, in China. The images were object-based classified using the MPk-NN method and several alternatives, including the k-NN, the geostatistically weighted k-NN, the Bayesian method, the decision tree classifier (DTC), and the support vector machine classifier (SVM). It was demonstrated that the new spatial weighting based on MPS can achieve greater classification accuracy relative to the alternatives and it is, thus, recommended as appropriate for object-based classification.

Multiple-scale prediction of forest loss risk across Borneo

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Ewan A. Macdonald; Erin L. Landguth; Yadvinder Malhi; David W. Macdonald

2017-01-01

Context: The forests of Borneo have among the highest biodiversity and also the highest forest loss rates on the planet. Objectives: Our objectives were to: (1) compare multiple modelling approaches, (2) evaluate the utility of landscape composition and configuration as predictors, (3) assess the influence of the ratio of forest loss and persistence points in the...

QSAR study of curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors.

PubMed

Gupta, Pawan; Sharma, Anju; Garg, Prabha; Roy, Nilanjan

2013-03-01

A QSAR study was performed on curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors using multiple linear regression. The statistically significant model was developed with squared correlation coefficients (r(2)) 0.891 and cross validated r(2) (r(2) cv) 0.825. The developed model revealed that electronic, shape, size, geometry, substitution's information and hydrophilicity were important atomic properties for determining the inhibitory activity of these molecules. The model was also tested successfully for external validation (r(2) pred = 0.849) as well as Tropsha's test for model predictability. Furthermore, the domain analysis was carried out to evaluate the prediction reliability of external set molecules. The model was statistically robust and had good predictive power which can be successfully utilized for screening of new molecules.

Application of modified profile analysis to function testing of the motion/no-motion issue in an aircraft ground-handling simulation. [statistical analysis procedure for man machine systems flight simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, R. V.; Mckissick, B. T.; Steinmetz, G. G.

1979-01-01

A recent modification of the methodology of profile analysis, which allows the testing for differences between two functions as a whole with a single test, rather than point by point with multiple tests is discussed. The modification is applied to the examination of the issue of motion/no motion conditions as shown by the lateral deviation curve as a function of engine cut speed of a piloted 737-100 simulator. The results of this application are presented along with those of more conventional statistical test procedures on the same simulator data.

Predicting trauma patient mortality: ICD [or ICD-10-AM] versus AIS based approaches.

PubMed

Willis, Cameron D; Gabbe, Belinda J; Jolley, Damien; Harrison, James E; Cameron, Peter A

2010-11-01

The International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score (ICISS) has been proposed as an International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10-based alternative to mortality prediction tools that use Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) data, including the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS). To date, studies have not examined the performance of ICISS using Australian trauma registry data. This study aimed to compare the performance of ICISS with other mortality prediction tools in an Australian trauma registry. This was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data from the Victorian State Trauma Registry. A training dataset was created for model development and a validation dataset for evaluation. The multiplicative ICISS model was compared with a worst injury ICISS approach, Victorian TRISS (V-TRISS, using local coefficients), maximum AIS severity and a multivariable model including ICD-10-AM codes as predictors. Models were investigated for discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). The multivariable approach had the highest level of discrimination (C-statistic 0.90) and calibration (H-L 7.65, P= 0.468). Worst injury ICISS, V-TRISS and maximum AIS had similar performance. The multiplicative ICISS produced the lowest level of discrimination (C-statistic 0.80) and poorest calibration (H-L 50.23, P < 0.001). The performance of ICISS may be affected by the data used to develop estimates, the ICD version employed, the methods for deriving estimates and the inclusion of covariates. In this analysis, a multivariable approach using ICD-10-AM codes was the best-performing method. A multivariable ICISS approach may therefore be a useful alternative to AIS-based methods and may have comparable predictive performance to locally derived TRISS models. © 2010 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2010 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

The prediction of intelligence in preschool children using alternative models to regression.

PubMed

Finch, W Holmes; Chang, Mei; Davis, Andrew S; Holden, Jocelyn E; Rothlisberg, Barbara A; McIntosh, David E

2011-12-01

Statistical prediction of an outcome variable using multiple independent variables is a common practice in the social and behavioral sciences. For example, neuropsychologists are sometimes called upon to provide predictions of preinjury cognitive functioning for individuals who have suffered a traumatic brain injury. Typically, these predictions are made using standard multiple linear regression models with several demographic variables (e.g., gender, ethnicity, education level) as predictors. Prior research has shown conflicting evidence regarding the ability of such models to provide accurate predictions of outcome variables such as full-scale intelligence (FSIQ) test scores. The present study had two goals: (1) to demonstrate the utility of a set of alternative prediction methods that have been applied extensively in the natural sciences and business but have not been frequently explored in the social sciences and (2) to develop models that can be used to predict premorbid cognitive functioning in preschool children. Predictions of Stanford-Binet 5 FSIQ scores for preschool-aged children is used to compare the performance of a multiple regression model with several of these alternative methods. Results demonstrate that classification and regression trees provided more accurate predictions of FSIQ scores than does the more traditional regression approach. Implications of these results are discussed.

No-Reference Video Quality Assessment Based on Statistical Analysis in 3D-DCT Domain.

PubMed

Li, Xuelong; Guo, Qun; Lu, Xiaoqiang

2016-05-13

It is an important task to design models for universal no-reference video quality assessment (NR-VQA) in multiple video processing and computer vision applications. However, most existing NR-VQA metrics are designed for specific distortion types which are not often aware in practical applications. A further deficiency is that the spatial and temporal information of videos is hardly considered simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a new NR-VQA metric based on the spatiotemporal natural video statistics (NVS) in 3D discrete cosine transform (3D-DCT) domain. In the proposed method, a set of features are firstly extracted based on the statistical analysis of 3D-DCT coefficients to characterize the spatiotemporal statistics of videos in different views. These features are used to predict the perceived video quality via the efficient linear support vector regression (SVR) model afterwards. The contributions of this paper are: 1) we explore the spatiotemporal statistics of videos in 3DDCT domain which has the inherent spatiotemporal encoding advantage over other widely used 2D transformations; 2) we extract a small set of simple but effective statistical features for video visual quality prediction; 3) the proposed method is universal for multiple types of distortions and robust to different databases. The proposed method is tested on four widely used video databases. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with the state-of-art NR-VQA metrics and the top-performing FR-VQA and RR-VQA metrics.

Upper Gastrointestinal Complications and Cardiovascular/Gastrointestinal Risk Calculator in Patients with Myocardial Infarction Treated with Aspirin.

PubMed

Wen, Lei

2017-08-20

Aspirin is widely used for the prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases for the past few years. However, much attention has been paid to the adverse effects associated with aspirin such as gastrointestinal bleeding. How to weigh the benefits and hazards? The current study aimed to assess the feasibility of a cardiovascular/gastrointestinal risk calculator, AsaRiskCalculator, in predicting gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with myocardial infarction (MI), determining unique risk factor(s) for gastrointestinal events to be considered in the calculator. The MI patients who visited Shapingba District People's Hospital between January 2012 and January 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Based on gastroscopic data, the patients were divided into two groups: gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal groups. Demographic and clinical data of the patients were then retrieved for statistical analysis. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for gastrointestinal events. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive value of AsaRiskCalculator for gastrointestinal events. A total of 400 MI patients meeting the eligibility criteria were analyzed, including 94 and 306 in the gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal groups, respectively. The data showed that age, male gender, predicted gastrointestinal events, and Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection were positively correlated with gastrointestinal events. In multiple logistic regression analysis, predicted gastrointestinal events and HP infection were identified as risk factors for actual gastrointestinal events. HP infection was highly predictive in Chinese patients; the ROC curve indicated an area under the curve of 0.822 (95% confidence interval: 0.774-0.870). The best diagnostic cutoff point of predicted gastrointestinal events was 68.0‰, yielding sensitivity and specificity of 60.6% and 93.1%, respectively, for predicting gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with MI. AsaRiskCalculator had a predictive value for gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with MI. HP infection seemed to be an independent risk factor for gastrointestinal events caused by long-term aspirin treatment in Chinese patients with MI, and it should be included in the risk calculator adapted for Chinese patients.

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

2017-09-01

In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

Sleep hygiene behaviours: an application of the theory of planned behaviour and the investigation of perceived autonomy support, past behaviour and response inhibition.

PubMed

Kor, Kenny; Mullan, Barbara Ann

2011-09-01

This study investigated the sleep hygiene behaviour of university students within the framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB [Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179-211.]), and examined the predictive validity of additional variables including perceived autonomy support, past behaviour and response inhibition. A total of 257 undergraduate students from an Australian university were administered two online questionnaires at two time points. At time 1, participants completed the TPB questionnaire and the Go/NoGo task as a measure of response inhibition. A week later at time 2, participants completed a questionnaire measuring the performance of sleep hygiene behaviours. Multiple and hierarchical regression analyses showed that the TPB model significantly predicted intention and behaviour. Although intention and perceived behavioural control were statistically significant in predicting behaviour, past behaviour and response inhibition accounted for more variance when added to the TPB model. Subjective norm was found to be the strongest predictor of intention implying the importance of normative influences in sleep hygiene behaviours. Response inhibition was the strongest predictor of behaviour, reinforcing the argument that the performance of health protective behaviours requires self-regulatory ability. Therefore, interventions should be targeted at enhancing self-regulatory capacity.

Statistical Learning Is Constrained to Less Abstract Patterns in Complex Sensory Input (but not the Least)

PubMed Central

Emberson, Lauren L.; Rubinstein, Dani

2016-01-01

The influence of statistical information on behavior (either through learning or adaptation) is quickly becoming foundational to many domains of cognitive psychology and cognitive neuroscience, from language comprehension to visual development. We investigate a central problem impacting these diverse fields: when encountering input with rich statistical information, are there any constraints on learning? This paper examines learning outcomes when adult learners are given statistical information across multiple levels of abstraction simultaneously: from abstract, semantic categories of everyday objects to individual viewpoints on these objects. After revealing statistical learning of abstract, semantic categories with scrambled individual exemplars (Exp. 1), participants viewed pictures where the categories as well as the individual objects predicted picture order (e.g., bird1—dog1, bird2—dog2). Our findings suggest that participants preferentially encode the relationships between the individual objects, even in the presence of statistical regularities linking semantic categories (Exps. 2 and 3). In a final experiment we investigate whether learners are biased towards learning object-level regularities or simply construct the most detailed model given the data (and therefore best able to predict the specifics of the upcoming stimulus) by investigating whether participants preferentially learn from the statistical regularities linking individual snapshots of objects or the relationship between the objects themselves (e.g., bird_picture1— dog_picture1, bird_picture2—dog_picture2). We find that participants fail to learn the relationships between individual snapshots, suggesting a bias towards object-level statistical regularities as opposed to merely constructing the most complete model of the input. This work moves beyond the previous existence proofs that statistical learning is possible at both very high and very low levels of abstraction (categories vs. individual objects) and suggests that, at least with the current categories and type of learner, there are biases to pick up on statistical regularities between individual objects even when robust statistical information is present at other levels of abstraction. These findings speak directly to emerging theories about how systems supporting statistical learning and prediction operate in our structure-rich environments. Moreover, the theoretical implications of the current work across multiple domains of study is already clear: statistical learning cannot be assumed to be unconstrained even if statistical learning has previously been established at a given level of abstraction when that information is presented in isolation. PMID:27139779

Weak shock propagation through a turbulent atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, Allan D.; Sparrow, Victor W.

1990-01-01

Consideration is given to the propagation through turbulence of transient pressure waveforms whose initial onset at any given point is an abrupt shock. The work is motivated by the desire to eventually develop a mathematical model for predicting statistical features, such as peak overpressures and spike widths, of sonic booms generated by supersonic aircraft. It is argued that the transient waveform received at points where x greater than 0 will begin with a pressure jump and a formulation is developed for predicting the amount of this jump and the time derivatives of the pressure waveform immediately following the jump.

Revealing Companions to Nearby Stars with Astrometric Acceleration

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

objects, such as stellar -mass black holes or failed supernova (Gould & Salim 2002). Table 4 includes a sample of some of the most interesting dis...knowledge of binary and multiple star statistics is needed for the study of star formation, for stellar population synthesis, for predicting the...frequency of supernovae, blue stragglers, X-ray binaries, etc. The statistical properties of binaries strongly depend on stellar mass. Only for nearby solar

Nonlinear analysis and performance evaluation of the Annular Suspension and Pointing System (ASPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, S. M.

1978-01-01

The Annular Suspension and Pointing System (ASPS) can provide high accurate fine pointing for a variety of solar-, stellar-, and Earth-viewing scientific instruments during space shuttle orbital missions. In this report, a detailed nonlinear mathematical model is developed for the ASPS/Space Shuttle system. The equations are augmented with nonlinear models of components such as magnetic actuators and gimbal torquers. Control systems and payload attitude state estimators are designed in order to obtain satisfactory pointing performance, and statistical pointing performance is predicted in the presence of measurement noise and disturbances.

Analysis of the quantitative dermatoglyphics of the digito-palmar complex in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Supe, S; Milicić, J; Pavićević, R

1997-06-01

Recent studies on the etiopathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) all point out that there is a polygenetical predisposition for this illness. The so called "MS Trait" determines the reactivity of the immunological system upon ecological factors. The development of the glyphological science and the study of the characteristics of the digito-palmar dermatoglyphic complex (for which it was established that they are polygenetically determined characteristics) all enable a better insight into the genetic development during early embriogenesis. The aim of this study was to estimate certain differences in the dermatoglyphics of digito-palmar complexes between the group with multiple sclerosis and the comparable, phenotypically healthy groups of both sexes. This study is based on the analysis of 18 quantitative characteristics of the digito-palmar complex in 125 patients with multiple sclerosis (41 males and 84 females) in comparison to a group of 400 phenotypically healthy patients (200 males and 200 females). The conducted analysis pointed towards a statistically significant decrease of the number of digital and palmar ridges, as well as with lower values of atd angles in a group of MS patients of both sexes. The main discriminators were the characteristic palmar dermatoglyphics with the possibility that the discriminate analysis classifies over 80% of the examinees which exceeds the statistical significance. The results of this study suggest a possible discrimination of patients with MS and the phenotypically health population through the analysis of the dermatoglyphic status, and therefore the possibility that multiple sclerosis is genetically predisposed disease.

The Diagnostic Accuracy of the Berg Balance Scale in Predicting Falls.

PubMed

Park, Seong-Hi; Lee, Young-Shin

2017-11-01

This study aimed to evaluate the predictive validity of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) as a screening tool for fall risks among those with varied levels of balance. A total of 21 studies reporting predictive validity of the BBS of fall risk were meta-analyzed. With regard to the overall predictive validity of the BBS, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 and 0.73, respectively; the accuracy curve area was 0.84. The findings showed statistical heterogeneity among studies. Among the sub-groups, the age group of those younger than 65 years, those with neuromuscular disease, those with 2+ falls, and those with a cutoff point of 45 to 49 showed better sensitivity with statistically less heterogeneity. The empirical evidence indicates that the BBS is a suitable tool to screen for the risk of falls and shows good predictability when used with the appropriate criteria and applied to those with neuromuscular disease.

Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac risk models predict in-hospital mortality of heart valve surgery in a Chinese population: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Wang, Lv; Lu, Fang-Lin; Wang, Chong; Tan, Meng-Wei; Xu, Zhi-yun

2014-12-01

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models have been developed for heart valve surgery with and without coronary artery bypass grafting. The aim of our study was to evaluate the performance of Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac risk models in Chinese patients undergoing single valve surgery and the predicted mortality rates of those undergoing multiple valve surgery derived from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 risk models. A total of 12,170 patients underwent heart valve surgery from January 2008 to December 2011. Combined congenital heart surgery and aortal surgery cases were excluded. A relatively small number of valve surgery combinations were excluded. The final research population included the following isolated heart valve surgery types: aortic valve replacement, mitral valve replacement, and mitral valve repair. The following combined valve surgery types were included: mitral valve replacement plus tricuspid valve repair, mitral valve replacement plus aortic valve replacement, and mitral valve replacement plus aortic valve replacement and tricuspid valve repair. Evaluation was performed by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and C-statistics. Data from 9846 patients were analyzed. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac risk models showed reasonable discrimination and poor calibration (C-statistic, 0.712; P = .00006 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test). Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 models had better discrimination (C-statistic, 0.734) and calibration (P = .5805) in patients undergoing isolated valve surgery than in patients undergoing multiple valve surgery (C-statistic, 0.694; P = .00002 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test). Estimates derived from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 models exceeded the mortality rates of multiple valve surgery (observed/expected ratios of 1.44 for multiple valve surgery and 1.17 for single valve surgery). The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models performed well when predicting the mortality for Chinese patients undergoing valve surgery. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 models were suitable for single valve surgery in a Chinese population; estimates of mortality for multiple valve surgery derived from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 models were less accurate. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical Evaluation of Papilla Reconstruction Using Subepithelial Connective Tissue Graft

PubMed Central

Kaushik, Alka; PK, Pal; Chopra, Deepak; Chaurasia, Vishwajit Rampratap; Masamatti, Vinaykumar S; DK, Suresh; Babaji, Prashant

2014-01-01

Objective: The aesthetics of the patient can be improved by surgical reconstruction of interdental papilla by using an advanced papillary flap interposed with subepithelial connective tissue graft. Materials and Methods: A total of fifteen sites from ten patients having black triangles/papilla recession in the maxillary anterior region were selected and subjected to presurgical evaluation. The sites were treated with interposed subepithelial connective tissue graft placed under a coronally advance flap. The integrity of the papilla was maintained by moving the whole of gingivopapillary unit coronally. The various parameters were analysed at different intervals. Results: There was a mean decrease in the papilla presence index score and distance from contact point to gingival margin, but it was statistically not significant. Also, there is increase in the width of the keratinized gingiva which was statistically highly significant. Conclusion: Advanced papillary flap with interposed sub–epithelial connective tissue graft can offer predictable results for the reconstruction of interdental papilla. If papilla loss occurs solely due to soft-tissue damage, reconstructive techniques can completely restore it; but if due to periodontal disease involving bone loss, reconstruction is generally incomplete and multiple surgical procedures may be required. PMID:25386529

Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

DOE PAGES

Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

2009-10-27

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability.

PubMed

Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

2009-12-01

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model's fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple "weather regimes." To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, "bred vectors" and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from "clouds" (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

Alternative methods for CYP2D6 phenotyping: comparison of dextromethorphan metabolic ratios from AUC, single point plasma, and urine.

PubMed

Chen, Rui; Wang, Haotian; Shi, Jun; Hu, Pei

2016-05-01

CYP2D6 is a high polymorphic enzyme. Determining its phenotype before CYP2D6 substrate treatment can avoid dose-dependent adverse events or therapeutic failures. Alternative phenotyping methods of CYP2D6 were compared to aluate the appropriate and precise time points for phenotyping after single-dose and ultiple-dose of 30-mg controlled-release (CR) dextromethorphan (DM) and to explore the antimodes for potential sampling methods. This was an open-label, single and multiple-dose study. 21 subjects were assigned to receive a single dose of CR DM 30 mg orally, followed by a 3-day washout period prior to oral administration of CR DM 30 mg every 12 hours for 6 days. Metabolic ratios (MRs) from AUC∞ after single dosing and from AUC0-12h at steady state were taken as the gold standard. The correlations of metabolic ratios of DM to dextrorphan (MRDM/DX) values based on different phenotyping methods were assessed. Linear regression formulas were derived to calculate the antimodes for potential sample methods. In the single-dose part of the study statistically significant correlations were found between MRDM/DX from AUC∞ and from serial plasma points from 1 to 30 hours or from urine (all p-values < 0.001). In the multiple-dose part, statistically significant correlations were found between MRDM/DX from AUC0-12h on day 6 and MRDM/DX from serial plasma points from 0 to 36 hours after the last dosing (all p-values < 0.001). Based on reported urinary antimode and linear regression analysis, the antimodes of AUC and plasma points were derived to profile the trend of antimodes as the drug concentrations changed. MRDM/DX from plasma points had good correlations with MRDM/DX from AUC. Plasma points from 1 to 30 hours after single dose of 30-mg CR DM and any plasma point at steady state after multiple doses of CR DM could potentially be used for phenotyping of CYP2D6.

Translational Research for Occupational Therapy: Using SPRE in Hippotherapy for Children with Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Weissman-Miller, Deborah; Miller, Rosalie J; Shotwell, Mary P

2017-01-01

Translational research is redefined in this paper using a combination of methods in statistics and data science to enhance the understanding of outcomes and practice in occupational therapy. These new methods are applied, using larger data and smaller single-subject data, to a study in hippotherapy for children with developmental disabilities (DD). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates DD affects nearly 10 million children, aged 2-19, where diagnoses may be comorbid. Hippotherapy is defined here as a treatment strategy in occupational therapy using equine movement to achieve functional outcomes. Semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE), a single-subject statistical and small data science model, is used to derive a "change point" indicating where the participant adapts to treatment, from which predictions are made. Data analyzed here is from an institutional review board approved pilot study using the Hippotherapy Evaluation and Assessment Tool measure, where outcomes are given separately for each of four measured domains and the total scores of each participant. Analysis with SPRE, using statistical methods to predict a "change point" and data science graphical interpretations of data, shows the translational comparisons between results from larger mean values and the very different results from smaller values for each HEAT domain in terms of relationships and statistical probabilities.

Solar Radio Burst Statistics and Implications for Space Weather Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giersch, O. D.; Kennewell, J.; Lynch, M.

2017-11-01

Solar radio bursts have the potential to affect space and terrestrial navigation, communication, and other technical systems that are sometimes overlooked. However, over the last decade a series of extreme L band solar radio bursts in December 2006 have renewed interest in these effects. In this paper we point out significant deficiencies in the solar radio data archives of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that are used by most researchers in analyzing and producing statistics on solar radio burst phenomena. In particular, we examine the records submitted by the United States Air Force (USAF) Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) and its predecessors from the period 1966 to 2010. Besides identifying substantial missing burst records we show that different observatories can have statistically different burst distributions, particularly at 245 MHz. We also point out that different solar cycles may show statistically different distributions and that it is a mistake to assume that the Sun shows similar behavior in different sunspot cycles. Large solar radio bursts are not confined to the period around sunspot maximum, and prediction of such events that utilize historical data will invariably be an underestimate due to archive data deficiencies. It is important that researchers and forecasters use historical occurrence frequency with caution in attempting to predict future cycles.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE VIRTUAL BEACH MODEL, PHASE 1: AN EMPIRICAL MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

With increasing attention focused on the use of multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling of beach fecal bacteria concentration, the validity of the entire statistical process should be carefully evaluated to assure satisfactory predictions. This work aims to identify pitfalls an...

On the statistics of biased tracers in the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angulo, Raul; Fasiello, Matteo; Senatore, Leonardo

2015-09-01

With the completion of the Planck mission, in order to continue to gather cosmological information it has become crucial to understand the Large Scale Structures (LSS) of the universe to percent accuracy. The Effective Field Theory of LSS (EFTofLSS) is a novel theoretical framework that aims to develop an analytic understanding of LSS at long distances, where inhomogeneities are small. We further develop the description of biased tracers in the EFTofLSS to account for the effect of baryonic physics and primordial non-Gaussianities, finding that new bias coefficients are required. Then, restricting to dark matter with Gaussian initial conditions, we describemore » the prediction of the EFTofLSS for the one-loop halo-halo and halo-matter two-point functions, and for the tree-level halo-halo-halo, matter-halo-halo and matter-matter-halo three-point functions. Several new bias coefficients are needed in the EFTofLSS, even though their contribution at a given order can be degenerate and the same parameters contribute to multiple observables. We develop a method to reduce the number of biases to an irreducible basis, and find that, at the order at which we work, seven bias parameters are enough to describe this extremely rich set of statistics. We then compare with the output of an N-body simulation where the normalization parameter of the linear power spectrum is set to σ{sub 8} = 0.9. For the lowest mass bin, we find percent level agreement up to k≅ 0.3 h Mpc{sup −1} for the one-loop two-point functions, and up to k≅ 0.15 h Mpc{sup −1} for the tree-level three-point functions, with the k-reach decreasing with higher mass bins. This is consistent with the theoretical estimates, and suggests that the cosmological information in LSS amenable to analytical control is much more than previously believed.« less

On the statistics of biased tracers in the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures

DOE PAGES

Angulo, Raul; Fasiello, Matteo; Senatore, Leonardo; ...

2015-09-09

With the completion of the Planck mission, in order to continue to gather cosmological information it has become crucial to understand the Large Scale Structures (LSS) of the universe to percent accuracy. The Effective Field Theory of LSS (EFTofLSS) is a novel theoretical framework that aims to develop an analytic understanding of LSS at long distances, where inhomogeneities are small. We further develop the description of biased tracers in the EFTofLSS to account for the effect of baryonic physics and primordial non-Gaussianities, finding that new bias coefficients are required. Then, restricting to dark matter with Gaussian initial conditions, we describemore » the prediction of the EFTofLSS for the one-loop halo-halo and halo-matter two-point functions, and for the tree-level halo-halo-halo, matter-halo-halo and matter-matter-halo three-point functions. Several new bias coefficients are needed in the EFTofLSS, even though their contribution at a given order can be degenerate and the same parameters contribute to multiple observables. We develop a method to reduce the number of biases to an irreducible basis, and find that, at the order at which we work, seven bias parameters are enough to describe this extremely rich set of statistics. We then compare with the output of an N-body simulation where the normalization parameter of the linear power spectrum is set to σ 8 = 0.9. For the lowest mass bin, we find percent level agreement up to k ≃ 0.3 h Mpc –1 for the one-loop two-point functions, and up to k ≃ 0.15 h Mpc –1 for the tree-level three-point functions, with the k-reach decreasing with higher mass bins. In conclusion, this is consistent with the theoretical estimates, and suggests that the cosmological information in LSS amenable to analytical control is much more than previously believed.« less

Exclusive measurements of mean pion multiplicities in 4He-nucleus reactions from 200 to 800 MeV/nucleon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

L'Hote, D.; Alard, J. P.; Augerat, J.; Babinet, R.; Brochard, F.; Fodor, Z.; Fraysse, L.; Girard, J.; Gorodetzky, P.; Gosset, J.;

Empirical-statistical downscaling of reanalysis data to high-resolution air temperature and specific humidity above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, Marlis; MöLg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-06-01

Recently initiated observation networks in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) provide temporally high-resolution, yet short-term, atmospheric data. The aim of this study is to extend the existing time series into the past. We present an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) model that links 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to air temperature and specific humidity, measured at the tropical glacier Artesonraju (northern Cordillera Blanca). The ESD modeling procedure includes combined empirical orthogonal function and multiple regression analyses and a double cross-validation scheme for model evaluation. Apart from the selection of predictor fields, the modeling procedure is automated and does not include subjective choices. We assess the ESD model sensitivity to the predictor choice using both single-field and mixed-field predictors. Statistical transfer functions are derived individually for different months and times of day. The forecast skill largely depends on month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8. The mixed-field predictors perform better than the single-field predictors. The ESD model shows added value, at all time scales, against simpler reference models (e.g., the direct use of reanalysis grid point values). The ESD model forecast 1960-2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type.

Some intriguing aspects of multiparticle production processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilk, Grzegorz; Włodarczyk, Zbigniew

2018-04-01

Multiparticle production processes provide valuable information about the mechanism of the conversion of the initial energy of projectiles into a number of secondaries by measuring their multiplicity distributions and their distributions in phase space. They therefore serve as a reference point for more involved measurements. Distributions in phase space are usually investigated using the statistical approach, very successful in general but failing in cases of small colliding systems, small multiplicities, and at the edges of the allowed phase space, in which cases the underlying dynamical effects competing with the statistical distributions take over. We discuss an alternative approach, which applies to the whole phase space without detailed knowledge of dynamics. It is based on a modification of the usual statistics by generalizing it to a superstatistical form. We stress particularly the scaling and self-similar properties of such an approach manifesting themselves as the phenomena of the log-periodic oscillations and oscillations of temperature caused by sound waves in hadronic matter. Concerning the multiplicity distributions we discuss in detail the phenomenon of the oscillatory behavior of the modified combinants apparently observed in experimental data.

Prediction of sickness absence: development of a screening instrument

PubMed Central

Duijts, S F A; Kant, IJ; Landeweerd, J A; Swaen, G M H

2006-01-01

Objectives To develop a concise screening instrument for early identification of employees at risk for sickness absence due to psychosocial health complaints. Methods Data from the Maastricht Cohort Study on “Fatigue at Work” were used to identify items to be associated with an increased risk of sickness absence. The analytical procedures univariate logistic regression, backward stepwise linear regression, and multiple logistic regression were successively applied. For both men and women, sum scores were calculated, and sensitivity and specificity rates of different cut‐off points on the screening instrument were defined. Results In women, results suggested that feeling depressed, having a burnout, being tired, being less interested in work, experiencing obligatory change in working days, and living alone, were strong predictors of sickness absence due to psychosocial health complaints. In men, statistically significant predictors were having a history of sickness absence, compulsive thinking, being mentally fatigued, finding it hard to relax, lack of supervisor support, and having no hobbies. A potential cut‐off point of 10 on the screening instrument resulted in a sensitivity score of 41.7% for women and 38.9% for men, and a specificity score of 91.3% for women and 90.6% for men. Conclusions This study shows that it is possible to identify predictive factors for sickness absence and to develop an instrument for early identification of employees at risk for sickness absence. The results of this study increase the possibility for both employers and policymakers to implement interventions directed at the prevention of sickness absence. PMID:16698807

Predicting Grades in College Courses: A Comparison of Multiple Regression and Percent Succeeding Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bridgeman, Brent; Pollack, Judith; Burton, Nancy

2008-01-01

Two methods of showing the ability of high school grades (high school grade point averages) and SAT scores to predict cumulative grades in different types of college courses were evaluated in a sample of 26 colleges. Each college contributed data from three cohorts of entering freshmen, and each cohort was followed for at least four years.…

Prediction of slant path rain attenuation statistics at various locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldhirsh, J.

1977-01-01

The paper describes a method for predicting slant path attenuation statistics at arbitrary locations for variable frequencies and path elevation angles. The method involves the use of median reflectivity factor-height profiles measured with radar as well as the use of long-term point rain rate data and assumed or measured drop size distributions. The attenuation coefficient due to cloud liquid water in the presence of rain is also considered. Absolute probability fade distributions are compared for eight cases: Maryland (15 GHz), Texas (30 GHz), Slough, England (19 and 37 GHz), Fayetteville, North Carolina (13 and 18 GHz), and Cambridge, Massachusetts (13 and 18 GHz).

Prediction system of hydroponic plant growth and development using algorithm Fuzzy Mamdani method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudana, I. Made; Purnawirawan, Okta; Arief, Ulfa Mediaty

2017-03-01

Hydroponics is a method of farming without soil. One of the Hydroponic plants is Watercress (Nasturtium Officinale). The development and growth process of hydroponic Watercress was influenced by levels of nutrients, acidity and temperature. The independent variables can be used as input variable system to predict the value level of plants growth and development. The prediction system is using Fuzzy Algorithm Mamdani method. This system was built to implement the function of Fuzzy Inference System (Fuzzy Inference System/FIS) as a part of the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox (FLT) by using MATLAB R2007b. FIS is a computing system that works on the principle of fuzzy reasoning which is similar to humans' reasoning. Basically FIS consists of four units which are fuzzification unit, fuzzy logic reasoning unit, base knowledge unit and defuzzification unit. In addition to know the effect of independent variables on the plants growth and development that can be visualized with the function diagram of FIS output surface that is shaped three-dimensional, and statistical tests based on the data from the prediction system using multiple linear regression method, which includes multiple linear regression analysis, T test, F test, the coefficient of determination and donations predictor that are calculated using SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions) software applications.

Feature maps driven no-reference image quality prediction of authentically distorted images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Bovik, Alan C.

2015-03-01

Current blind image quality prediction models rely on benchmark databases comprised of singly and synthetically distorted images, thereby learning image features that are only adequate to predict human perceived visual quality on such inauthentic distortions. However, real world images often contain complex mixtures of multiple distortions. Rather than a) discounting the effect of these mixtures of distortions on an image's perceptual quality and considering only the dominant distortion or b) using features that are only proven to be efficient for singly distorted images, we deeply study the natural scene statistics of authentically distorted images, in different color spaces and transform domains. We propose a feature-maps-driven statistical approach which avoids any latent assumptions about the type of distortion(s) contained in an image, and focuses instead on modeling the remarkable consistencies in the scene statistics of real world images in the absence of distortions. We design a deep belief network that takes model-based statistical image features derived from a very large database of authentically distorted images as input and discovers good feature representations by generalizing over different distortion types, mixtures, and severities, which are later used to learn a regressor for quality prediction. We demonstrate the remarkable competence of our features for improving automatic perceptual quality prediction on a benchmark database and on the newly designed LIVE Authentic Image Quality Challenge Database and show that our approach of combining robust statistical features and the deep belief network dramatically outperforms the state-of-the-art.

HiRadProp: High-Frequency Modeling and Prediction of Tropospheric Radiopropagation Parameters from Ground-Based-Multi-Channel Radiometric Measurements between Ka and W Band

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-11

new physically -based prediction models for all-weather path attenuation estimation at Ka, V and W band from multi- channel microwave radiometric data...of new physically -based prediction models for all-weather path attenuation estimation at Ka, V and W band from multi- channel microwave radiometric...the medium behavior at these frequency bands from both a physical and a statistical point of view (e.g., [5]-[7]). However, these campaigns are

Comparisons of survival predictions using survival risk ratios based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Abbreviated Injury Scale trauma diagnosis codes.

PubMed

Clarke, John R; Ragone, Andrew V; Greenwald, Lloyd

2005-09-01

We conducted a comparison of methods for predicting survival using survival risk ratios (SRRs), including new comparisons based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) versus Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) six-digit codes. From the Pennsylvania trauma center's registry, all direct trauma admissions were collected through June 22, 1999. Patients with no comorbid medical diagnoses and both ICD-9 and AIS injury codes were used for comparisons based on a single set of data. SRRs for ICD-9 and then for AIS diagnostic codes were each calculated two ways: from the survival rate of patients with each diagnosis and when each diagnosis was an isolated diagnosis. Probabilities of survival for the cohort were calculated using each set of SRRs by the multiplicative ICISS method and, where appropriate, the minimum SRR method. These prediction sets were then internally validated against actual survival by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. The 41,364 patients had 1,224 different ICD-9 injury diagnoses in 32,261 combinations and 1,263 corresponding AIS injury diagnoses in 31,755 combinations, ranging from 1 to 27 injuries per patient. All conventional ICD-9-based combinations of SRRs and methods had better Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic fits than their AIS-based counterparts. The minimum SRR method produced better calibration than the multiplicative methods, presumably because it did not magnify inaccuracies in the SRRs that might occur with multiplication. Predictions of survival based on anatomic injury alone can be performed using ICD-9 codes, with no advantage from extra coding of AIS diagnoses. Predictions based on the single worst SRR were closer to actual outcomes than those based on multiplying SRRs.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

PubMed

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models

PubMed Central

Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2017-01-01

In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384

Hunting high and low: disentangling primordial and late-time non-Gaussianity with cosmic densities in spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlemann, C.; Pajer, E.; Pichon, C.; Nishimichi, T.; Codis, S.; Bernardeau, F.

2018-03-01

Non-Gaussianities of dynamical origin are disentangled from primordial ones using the formalism of large deviation statistics with spherical collapse dynamics. This is achieved by relying on accurate analytical predictions for the one-point probability distribution function and the two-point clustering of spherically averaged cosmic densities (sphere bias). Sphere bias extends the idea of halo bias to intermediate density environments and voids as underdense regions. In the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity, sphere bias displays a strong scale dependence relevant for both high- and low-density regions, which is predicted analytically. The statistics of densities in spheres are built to model primordial non-Gaussianity via an initial skewness with a scale dependence that depends on the bispectrum of the underlying model. The analytical formulas with the measured non-linear dark matter variance as input are successfully tested against numerical simulations. For local non-Gaussianity with a range from fNL = -100 to +100, they are found to agree within 2 per cent or better for densities ρ ∈ [0.5, 3] in spheres of radius 15 Mpc h-1 down to z = 0.35. The validity of the large deviation statistics formalism is thereby established for all observationally relevant local-type departures from perfectly Gaussian initial conditions. The corresponding estimators for the amplitude of the non-linear variance σ8 and primordial skewness fNL are validated using a fiducial joint maximum likelihood experiment. The influence of observational effects and the prospects for a future detection of primordial non-Gaussianity from joint one- and two-point densities-in-spheres statistics are discussed.

The HCUP SID Imputation Project: Improving Statistical Inferences for Health Disparities Research by Imputing Missing Race Data.

PubMed

Ma, Yan; Zhang, Wei; Lyman, Stephen; Huang, Yihe

2018-06-01

To identify the most appropriate imputation method for missing data in the HCUP State Inpatient Databases (SID) and assess the impact of different missing data methods on racial disparities research. HCUP SID. A novel simulation study compared four imputation methods (random draw, hot deck, joint multiple imputation [MI], conditional MI) for missing values for multiple variables, including race, gender, admission source, median household income, and total charges. The simulation was built on real data from the SID to retain their hierarchical data structures and missing data patterns. Additional predictive information from the U.S. Census and American Hospital Association (AHA) database was incorporated into the imputation. Conditional MI prediction was equivalent or superior to the best performing alternatives for all missing data structures and substantially outperformed each of the alternatives in various scenarios. Conditional MI substantially improved statistical inferences for racial health disparities research with the SID. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Factors predicting work outcome in Japanese patients with schizophrenia: role of multiple functioning levels.

PubMed

Sumiyoshi, Chika; Harvey, Philip D; Takaki, Manabu; Okahisa, Yuko; Sato, Taku; Sora, Ichiro; Nuechterlein, Keith H; Subotnik, Kenneth L; Sumiyoshi, Tomiki

2015-09-01

Functional outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia suggest recovery of cognitive, everyday, and social functioning. Specifically improvement of work status is considered to be most important for their independent living and self-efficacy. The main purposes of the present study were 1) to identify which outcome factors predict occupational functioning, quantified as work hours, and 2) to provide cut-offs on the scales for those factors to attain better work status. Forty-five Japanese patients with schizophrenia and 111 healthy controls entered the study. Cognition, capacity for everyday activities, and social functioning were assessed by the Japanese versions of the MATRICS Cognitive Consensus Battery (MCCB), the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief (UPSA-B), and the Social Functioning Scale Individuals' version modified for the MATRICS-PASS (Modified SFS for PASS), respectively. Potential factors for work outcome were estimated by multiple linear regression analyses (predicting work hours directly) and a multiple logistic regression analyses (predicting dichotomized work status based on work hours). ROC curve analyses were performed to determine cut-off points for differentiating between the better- and poor work status. The results showed that a cognitive component, comprising visual/verbal learning and emotional management, and a social functioning component, comprising independent living and vocational functioning, were potential factors for predicting work hours/status. Cut-off points obtained in ROC analyses indicated that 60-70% achievements on the measures of those factors were expected to maintain the better work status. Our findings suggest that improvement on specific aspects of cognitive and social functioning are important for work outcome in patients with schizophrenia.

Pseudorandom number generation using chaotic true orbits of the Bernoulli map

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saito, Asaki, E-mail: saito@fun.ac.jp; Yamaguchi, Akihiro

We devise a pseudorandom number generator that exactly computes chaotic true orbits of the Bernoulli map on quadratic algebraic integers. Moreover, we describe a way to select the initial points (seeds) for generating multiple pseudorandom binary sequences. This selection method distributes the initial points almost uniformly (equidistantly) in the unit interval, and latter parts of the generated sequences are guaranteed not to coincide. We also demonstrate through statistical testing that the generated sequences possess good randomness properties.

Is prostate-specific antigen a valid surrogate end point for survival in hormonally treated patients with metastatic prostate cancer? Joint research of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer, the Limburgs Universitair Centrum, and AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Collette, Laurence; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Carroll, Kevin J; Newling, Don; Morris, Tom; Schröder, Fritz H

2005-09-01

The long duration of phase III clinical trials of overall survival (OS) slows down the treatment-development process. It could be shortened by using surrogate end points. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is the most studied biomarker in prostate cancer (PCa). This study attempts to validate PSA end points as surrogates for OS in advanced PCa. Individual data from 2,161 advanced PCa patients treated in studies comparing bicalutamide to castration were used in a meta-analytic approach to surrogate end-point validation. PSA response, PSA normalization, time to PSA progression, and longitudinal PSA measurements were considered. The known association between PSA and OS at the individual patient level was confirmed. The association between the effect of intervention on any PSA end point and on OS was generally low (determination coefficient, < 0.69). It is a common misconception that high correlation between biomarkers and true end point justify the use of the former as surrogates. To statistically validate surrogate end points, a high correlation between the treatment effects on the surrogate and true end point needs to be established across groups of patients treated with two alternative interventions. The levels of association observed in this study indicate that the effect of hormonal treatment on OS cannot be predicted with a high degree of precision from observed treatment effects on PSA end points, and thus statistical validity is unproven. In practice, non-null treatment effects on OS can be predicted only from precisely estimated large effects on time to PSA progression (TTPP; hazard ratio, < 0.50).

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Supervised restoration of degraded medical images using multiple-point geostatistics.

PubMed

Pham, Tuan D

2012-06-01

Reducing noise in medical images has been an important issue of research and development for medical diagnosis, patient treatment, and validation of biomedical hypotheses. Noise inherently exists in medical and biological images due to the acquisition and transmission in any imaging devices. Being different from image enhancement, the purpose of image restoration is the process of removing noise from a degraded image in order to recover as much as possible its original version. This paper presents a statistically supervised approach for medical image restoration using the concept of multiple-point geostatistics. Experimental results have shown the effectiveness of the proposed technique which has potential as a new methodology for medical and biological image processing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

PubMed

Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk-reduction strategies, and guiding quality improvement efforts.

Empirical equation for predicting the surface tension of some liquid metals at their melting point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceotto, D.

2014-07-01

A new empirical equation is proposed for predicting the surface tension of some pure metals at their melting point. The investigation has been conducted adopting a statistical approach using some of the most accredited data available in literature. It is found that for Ag, Al, Au, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, and Pb the surface tension can be conveniently expressed in function of the latent heat of fusion and of the geometrical parameters of an ideal liquid spherical drop. The equation proposed has been compared also with the model proposed by Lu and Jiang giving satisfactory agreement for the metals considered.

Cylinders out of a top hat: counts-in-cells for projected densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlemann, Cora; Pichon, Christophe; Codis, Sandrine; L'Huillier, Benjamin; Kim, Juhan; Bernardeau, Francis; Park, Changbom; Prunet, Simon

2018-06-01

Large deviation statistics is implemented to predict the statistics of cosmic densities in cylinders applicable to photometric surveys. It yields few per cent accurate analytical predictions for the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of densities in concentric or compensated cylinders; and also captures the density dependence of their angular clustering (cylinder bias). All predictions are found to be in excellent agreement with the cosmological simulation Horizon Run 4 in the quasi-linear regime where standard perturbation theory normally breaks down. These results are combined with a simple local bias model that relates dark matter and tracer densities in cylinders and validated on simulated halo catalogues. This formalism can be used to probe cosmology with existing and upcoming photometric surveys like DES, Euclid or WFIRST containing billions of galaxies.

A location-based multiple point statistics method: modelling the reservoir with non-stationary characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yanshu; Feng, Wenjie

2017-12-01

In this paper, a location-based multiple point statistics method is developed to model a non-stationary reservoir. The proposed method characterizes the relationship between the sedimentary pattern and the deposit location using the relative central position distance function, which alleviates the requirement that the training image and the simulated grids have the same dimension. The weights in every direction of the distance function can be changed to characterize the reservoir heterogeneity in various directions. The local integral replacements of data events, structured random path, distance tolerance and multi-grid strategy are applied to reproduce the sedimentary patterns and obtain a more realistic result. This method is compared with the traditional Snesim method using a synthesized 3-D training image of Poyang Lake and a reservoir model of Shengli Oilfield in China. The results indicate that the new method can reproduce the non-stationary characteristics better than the traditional method and is more suitable for simulation of delta-front deposits. These results show that the new method is a powerful tool for modelling a reservoir with non-stationary characteristics.

Stratification of Recanalization for Patients with Endovascular Treatment of Intracranial Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Ogilvy, Christopher S.; Chua, Michelle H.; Fusco, Matthew R.; Reddy, Arra S.; Thomas, Ajith J.

2015-01-01

Background With increasing utilization of endovascular techniques in the treatment of both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms, the issue of obliteration efficacy has become increasingly important. Objective Our goal was to systematically develop a comprehensive model for predicting retreatment with various types of endovascular treatment. Methods We retrospectively reviewed medical records that were prospectively collected for 305 patients who received endovascular treatment for intracranial aneurysms from 2007 to 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on candidate predictors identified by univariable screening analysis to detect independent predictors of retreatment. A composite risk score was constructed based on the proportional contribution of independent predictors in the multivariable model. Results Size (>10 mm), aneurysm rupture, stent assistance, and post-treatment degree of aneurysm occlusion were independently associated with retreatment while intraluminal thrombosis and flow diversion demonstrated a trend towards retreatment. The Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale was constructed by assigning the following weights to statistically and clinically significant predictors. Aneurysm-specific factors: Size (>10 mm), 2 points; rupture, 2 points; presence of thrombus, 2 points. Treatment-related factors: Stent assistance, -1 point; flow diversion, -2 points; Raymond Roy 2 occlusion, 1 point; Raymond Roy 3 occlusion, 2 points. This scale demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.799. Conclusion Surgical decision-making and patient-centered informed consent require comprehensive and accessible information on treatment efficacy. We have constructed the Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale to enhance this decision-making process. This is the first comprehensive model that has been developed to quantitatively predict the risk of retreatment following endovascular therapy. PMID:25621984

A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

On Theoretical Broadband Shock-Associated Noise Near-Field Cross-Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Steven A. E.

2015-01-01

The cross-spectral acoustic analogy is used to predict auto-spectra and cross-spectra of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field from a range of heated and unheated supersonic off-design jets. A single equivalent source model is proposed for the near-field, mid-field, and far-field terms, that contains flow-field statistics of the shock wave shear layer interactions. Flow-field statistics are modeled based upon experimental observation and computational fluid dynamics solutions. An axisymmetric assumption is used to reduce the model to a closed-form equation involving a double summation over the equivalent source at each shock wave shear layer interaction. Predictions are compared with a wide variety of measurements at numerous jet Mach numbers and temperature ratios from multiple facilities. Auto-spectral predictions of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field capture trends observed in measurement and other prediction theories. Predictions of spatial coherence of broadband shock-associated noise accurately capture the peak coherent intensity, frequency, and spectral width.

A review of statistical updating methods for clinical prediction models.

PubMed

Su, Ting-Li; Jaki, Thomas; Hickey, Graeme L; Buchan, Iain; Sperrin, Matthew

2018-01-01

A clinical prediction model is a tool for predicting healthcare outcomes, usually within a specific population and context. A common approach is to develop a new clinical prediction model for each population and context; however, this wastes potentially useful historical information. A better approach is to update or incorporate the existing clinical prediction models already developed for use in similar contexts or populations. In addition, clinical prediction models commonly become miscalibrated over time, and need replacing or updating. In this article, we review a range of approaches for re-using and updating clinical prediction models; these fall in into three main categories: simple coefficient updating, combining multiple previous clinical prediction models in a meta-model and dynamic updating of models. We evaluated the performance (discrimination and calibration) of the different strategies using data on mortality following cardiac surgery in the United Kingdom: We found that no single strategy performed sufficiently well to be used to the exclusion of the others. In conclusion, useful tools exist for updating existing clinical prediction models to a new population or context, and these should be implemented rather than developing a new clinical prediction model from scratch, using a breadth of complementary statistical methods.

Ruminal bacteria and protozoa composition, digestibility, and amino acid profile determined by multiple hydrolysis times.

PubMed

Fessenden, S W; Hackmann, T J; Ross, D A; Foskolos, A; Van Amburgh, M E

2017-09-01

Microbial samples from 4 independent experiments in lactating dairy cattle were obtained and analyzed for nutrient composition, AA digestibility, and AA profile after multiple hydrolysis times ranging from 2 to 168 h. Similar bacterial and protozoal isolation techniques were used for all isolations. Omasal bacteria and protozoa samples were analyzed for AA digestibility using a new in vitro technique. Multiple time point hydrolysis and least squares nonlinear regression were used to determine the AA content of omasal bacteria and protozoa, and equivalency comparisons were made against single time point hydrolysis. Formalin was used in 1 experiment, which negatively affected AA digestibility and likely limited the complete release of AA during acid hydrolysis. The mean AA digestibility was 87.8 and 81.6% for non-formalin-treated bacteria and protozoa, respectively. Preservation of microbe samples in formalin likely decreased recovery of several individual AA. Results from the multiple time point hydrolysis indicated that Ile, Val, and Met hydrolyzed at a slower rate compared with other essential AA. Singe time point hydrolysis was found to be nonequivalent to multiple time point hydrolysis when considering biologically important changes in estimated microbial AA profiles. Several AA, including Met, Ile, and Val, were underpredicted using AA determination after a single 24-h hydrolysis. Models for predicting postruminal supply of AA might need to consider potential bias present in postruminal AA flow literature when AA determinations are performed after single time point hydrolysis and when using formalin as a preservative for microbial samples. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing the Predictive Power of Coulomb Stress on Aftershock Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, J.; Lombardi, A.; Werner, M. J.; Marzocchi, W.

2009-12-01

Empirical and statistical models of clustered seismicity are usually strongly stochastic and perceived to be uninformative in their forecasts, since only marginal distributions are used, such as the Omori-Utsu and Gutenberg-Richter laws. In contrast, so-called physics-based aftershock models, based on seismic rate changes calculated from Coulomb stress changes and rate-and-state friction, make more specific predictions: anisotropic stress shadows and multiplicative rate changes. We test the predictive power of models based on Coulomb stress changes against statistical models, including the popular Short Term Earthquake Probabilities and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences models: We score and compare retrospective forecasts on the aftershock sequences of the 1992 Landers, USA, the 1997 Colfiorito, Italy, and the 2008 Selfoss, Iceland, earthquakes. To quantify predictability, we use likelihood-based metrics that test the consistency of the forecasts with the data, including modified and existing tests used in prospective forecast experiments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our results indicate that a statistical model performs best. Moreover, two Coulomb model classes seem unable to compete: Models based on deterministic Coulomb stress changes calculated from a given fault-slip model, and those based on fixed receiver faults. One model of Coulomb stress changes does perform well and sometimes outperforms the statistical models, but its predictive information is diluted, because of uncertainties included in the fault-slip model. Our results suggest that models based on Coulomb stress changes need to incorporate stochastic features that represent model and data uncertainty.

Evaluation of limited sampling models for prediction of oral midazolam AUC for CYP3A phenotyping and drug interaction studies.

PubMed

Mueller, Silke C; Drewelow, Bernd

2013-05-01

The area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) after oral midazolam administration is commonly used for cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A phenotyping studies. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate a limited sampling strategy for the prediction of AUC with oral midazolam. A total of 288 concentration-time profiles from 123 healthy volunteers who participated in four previously performed drug interaction studies with intense sampling after a single oral dose of 7.5 mg midazolam were available for evaluation. Of these, 45 profiles served for model building, which was performed by stepwise multiple linear regression, and the remaining 243 datasets served for validation. Mean prediction error (MPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were calculated to determine bias and precision The one- to four-sampling point models with the best coefficient of correlation were the one-sampling point model (8 h; r (2) = 0.84), the two-sampling point model (0.5 and 8 h; r (2) = 0.93), the three-sampling point model (0.5, 2, and 8 h; r (2) = 0.96), and the four-sampling point model (0.5,1, 2, and 8 h; r (2) = 0.97). However, the one- and two-sampling point models were unable to predict the midazolam AUC due to unacceptable bias and precision. Only the four-sampling point model predicted the very low and very high midazolam AUC of the validation dataset with acceptable precision and bias. The four-sampling point model was also able to predict the geometric mean ratio of the treatment phase over the baseline (with 90 % confidence interval) results of three drug interaction studies in the categories of strong, moderate, and mild induction, as well as no interaction. A four-sampling point limited sampling strategy to predict the oral midazolam AUC for CYP3A phenotyping is proposed. The one-, two- and three-sampling point models were not able to predict midazolam AUC accurately.

Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program

PubMed Central

Sun, Jimeng; McNaughton, Candace D; Zhang, Ping; Perer, Adam; Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris; Denny, Joshua C; Kirby, Jacqueline; Lasko, Thomas; Saip, Alexander; Malin, Bradley A

2014-01-01

Objective Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. Method In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. Results The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). Conclusions This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans. PMID:24045907

Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program.

PubMed

Sun, Jimeng; McNaughton, Candace D; Zhang, Ping; Perer, Adam; Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris; Denny, Joshua C; Kirby, Jacqueline; Lasko, Thomas; Saip, Alexander; Malin, Bradley A

2014-01-01

Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans.

Multiple Point Statistics algorithm based on direct sampling and multi-resolution images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julien, S.; Renard, P.; Chugunova, T.

2017-12-01

Multiple Point Statistics (MPS) has become popular for more than one decade in Earth Sciences, because these methods allow to generate random fields reproducing highly complex spatial features given in a conceptual model, the training image, while classical geostatistics techniques based on bi-point statistics (covariance or variogram) fail to generate realistic models. Among MPS methods, the direct sampling consists in borrowing patterns from the training image to populate a simulation grid. This latter is sequentially filled by visiting each of these nodes in a random order, and then the patterns, whose the number of nodes is fixed, become narrower during the simulation process, as the simulation grid is more densely informed. Hence, large scale structures are caught in the beginning of the simulation and small scale ones in the end. However, MPS may mix spatial characteristics distinguishable at different scales in the training image, and then loose the spatial arrangement of different structures. To overcome this limitation, we propose to perform MPS simulation using a decomposition of the training image in a set of images at multiple resolutions. Applying a Gaussian kernel onto the training image (convolution) results in a lower resolution image, and iterating this process, a pyramid of images depicting fewer details at each level is built, as it can be done in image processing for example to lighten the space storage of a photography. The direct sampling is then employed to simulate the lowest resolution level, and then to simulate each level, up to the finest resolution, conditioned to the level one rank coarser. This scheme helps reproduce the spatial structures at any scale of the training image and then generate more realistic models. We illustrate the method with aerial photographies (satellite images) and natural textures. Indeed, these kinds of images often display typical structures at different scales and are well-suited for MPS simulation techniques.

A statistical motion model based on biomechanical simulations for data fusion during image-guided prostate interventions.

PubMed

Hu, Yipeng; Morgan, Dominic; Ahmed, Hashim Uddin; Pendsé, Doug; Sahu, Mahua; Allen, Clare; Emberton, Mark; Hawkes, David; Barratt, Dean

2008-01-01

A method is described for generating a patient-specific, statistical motion model (SMM) of the prostate gland. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to simulate the motion of the gland using an ultrasound-based 3D FE model over a range of plausible boundary conditions and soft-tissue properties. By applying principal component analysis to the displacements of the FE mesh node points inside the gland, the simulated deformations are then used as training data to construct the SMM. The SMM is used to both predict the displacement field over the whole gland and constrain a deformable surface registration algorithm, given only a small number of target points on the surface of the deformed gland. Using 3D transrectal ultrasound images of the prostates of five patients, acquired before and after imposing a physical deformation, to evaluate the accuracy of predicted landmark displacements, the mean target registration error was found to be less than 1.9 mm.

Maternal factors predicting cognitive and behavioral characteristics of children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders.

PubMed

May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie A; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M

2013-06-01

To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs). Multivariate correlation techniques were used with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first-grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and used in structural equation models (SEMs) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and nonverbal) and behavior. A first SEM using only 7 maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05) but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status [SES], and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Although other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD.

Predicting acute pain after cesarean delivery using three simple questions.

PubMed

Pan, Peter H; Tonidandel, Ashley M; Aschenbrenner, Carol A; Houle, Timothy T; Harris, Lynne C; Eisenach, James C

2013-05-01

Interindividual variability in postoperative pain presents a clinical challenge. Preoperative quantitative sensory testing is useful but time consuming in predicting postoperative pain intensity. The current study was conducted to develop and validate a predictive model of acute postcesarean pain using a simple three-item preoperative questionnaire. A total of 200 women scheduled for elective cesarean delivery under subarachnoid anesthesia were enrolled (192 subjects analyzed). Patients were asked to rate the intensity of loudness of audio tones, their level of anxiety and anticipated pain, and analgesic need from surgery. Postoperatively, patients reported the intensity of evoked pain. Regression analysis was performed to generate a predictive model for pain from these measures. A validation cohort of 151 women was enrolled to test the reliability of the model (131 subjects analyzed). Responses from each of the three preoperative questions correlated moderately with 24-h evoked pain intensity (r = 0.24-0.33, P < 0.001). Audio tone rating added uniquely, but minimally, to the model and was not included in the predictive model. The multiple regression analysis yielded a statistically significant model (R = 0.20, P < 0.001), whereas the validation cohort showed reliably a very similar regression line (R = 0.18). In predicting the upper 20th percentile of evoked pain scores, the optimal cut point was 46.9 (z =0.24) such that sensitivity of 0.68 and specificity of 0.67 were as balanced as possible. This simple three-item questionnaire is useful to help predict postcesarean evoked pain intensity, and could be applied to further research and clinical application to tailor analgesic therapy to those who need it most.

Light-transmittance predictions under multiple-light-scattering conditions. I. Direct problem: hybrid-method approximation.

PubMed

Czerwiński, M; Mroczka, J; Girasole, T; Gouesbet, G; Gréhan, G

2001-03-20

Our aim is to present a method of predicting light transmittances through dense three-dimensional layered media. A hybrid method is introduced as a combination of the four-flux method with coefficients predicted from a Monte Carlo statistical model to take into account the actual three-dimensional geometry of the problem under study. We present the principles of the hybrid method, some exemplifying results of numerical simulations, and their comparison with results obtained from Bouguer-Lambert-Beer law and from Monte Carlo simulations.

Scale-dependent cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry in a forced rotating turbulence experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallet, B.; Campagne, A.; Cortet, P.-P.; Moisy, F.

2014-03-01

We characterize the statistical and geometrical properties of the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry in a statistically steady forced rotating turbulence experiment. Turbulence is generated by a set of vertical flaps which continuously inject velocity fluctuations towards the center of a tank mounted on a rotating platform. We first characterize the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry from conventional single-point vorticity statistics. We propose a phenomenological model to explain the emergence of the asymmetry in the experiment, from which we predict scaling laws for the root-mean-square velocity in good agreement with the experimental data. We further quantify the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry using a set of third-order two-point velocity correlations. We focus on the correlations which are nonzero only if the cyclone-anticyclone symmetry is broken. They offer two advantages over single-point vorticity statistics: first, they are defined from velocity measurements only, so an accurate resolution of the Kolmogorov scale is not required; second, they provide information on the scale-dependence of the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry. We compute these correlation functions analytically for a random distribution of independent identical vortices. These model correlations describe well the experimental ones, indicating that the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry is dominated by the large-scale long-lived cyclones.

MCNP-REN - A Monte Carlo Tool for Neutron Detector Design Without Using the Point Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abhold, M.E.; Baker, M.C.

1999-07-25

The development of neutron detectors makes extensive use of the predictions of detector response through the use of Monte Carlo techniques in conjunction with the point reactor model. Unfortunately, the point reactor model fails to accurately predict detector response in common applications. For this reason, the general Monte Carlo N-Particle code (MCNP) was modified to simulate the pulse streams that would be generated by a neutron detector and normally analyzed by a shift register. This modified code, MCNP - Random Exponentially Distributed Neutron Source (MCNP-REN), along with the Time Analysis Program (TAP) predict neutron detector response without using the pointmore » reactor model, making it unnecessary for the user to decide whether or not the assumptions of the point model are met for their application. MCNP-REN is capable of simulating standard neutron coincidence counting as well as neutron multiplicity counting. Measurements of MOX fresh fuel made using the Underwater Coincidence Counter (UWCC) as well as measurements of HEU reactor fuel using the active neutron Research Reactor Fuel Counter (RRFC) are compared with calculations. The method used in MCNP-REN is demonstrated to be fundamentally sound and shown to eliminate the need to use the point model for detector performance predictions.« less

Predictive validity of the UK clinical aptitude test in the final years of medical school: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Husbands, Adrian; Mathieson, Alistair; Dowell, Jonathan; Cleland, Jennifer; MacKenzie, Rhoda

2014-04-23

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) was designed to address issues identified with traditional methods of selection. This study aims to examine the predictive validity of the UKCAT and compare this to traditional selection methods in the senior years of medical school. This was a follow-up study of two cohorts of students from two medical schools who had previously taken part in a study examining the predictive validity of the UKCAT in first year. The sample consisted of 4th and 5th Year students who commenced their studies at the University of Aberdeen or University of Dundee medical schools in 2007. Data collected were: demographics (gender and age group), UKCAT scores; Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) form scores; admission interview scores; Year 4 and 5 degree examination scores. Pearson's correlations were used to examine the relationships between admissions variables, examination scores, gender and age group, and to select variables for multiple linear regression analysis to predict examination scores. Ninety-nine and 89 students at Aberdeen medical school from Years 4 and 5 respectively, and 51 Year 4 students in Dundee, were included in the analysis. Neither UCAS form nor interview scores were statistically significant predictors of examination performance. Conversely, the UKCAT yielded statistically significant validity coefficients between .24 and .36 in four of five assessments investigated. Multiple regression analysis showed the UKCAT made a statistically significant unique contribution to variance in examination performance in the senior years. Results suggest the UKCAT appears to predict performance better in the later years of medical school compared to earlier years and provides modest supportive evidence for the UKCAT's role in student selection within these institutions. Further research is needed to assess the predictive validity of the UKCAT against professional and behavioural outcomes as the cohort commences working life.

Predictive validity of the UK clinical aptitude test in the final years of medical school: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) was designed to address issues identified with traditional methods of selection. This study aims to examine the predictive validity of the UKCAT and compare this to traditional selection methods in the senior years of medical school. This was a follow-up study of two cohorts of students from two medical schools who had previously taken part in a study examining the predictive validity of the UKCAT in first year. Methods The sample consisted of 4th and 5th Year students who commenced their studies at the University of Aberdeen or University of Dundee medical schools in 2007. Data collected were: demographics (gender and age group), UKCAT scores; Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) form scores; admission interview scores; Year 4 and 5 degree examination scores. Pearson’s correlations were used to examine the relationships between admissions variables, examination scores, gender and age group, and to select variables for multiple linear regression analysis to predict examination scores. Results Ninety-nine and 89 students at Aberdeen medical school from Years 4 and 5 respectively, and 51 Year 4 students in Dundee, were included in the analysis. Neither UCAS form nor interview scores were statistically significant predictors of examination performance. Conversely, the UKCAT yielded statistically significant validity coefficients between .24 and .36 in four of five assessments investigated. Multiple regression analysis showed the UKCAT made a statistically significant unique contribution to variance in examination performance in the senior years. Conclusions Results suggest the UKCAT appears to predict performance better in the later years of medical school compared to earlier years and provides modest supportive evidence for the UKCAT’s role in student selection within these institutions. Further research is needed to assess the predictive validity of the UKCAT against professional and behavioural outcomes as the cohort commences working life. PMID:24762134

Efficacy of a composite biological age score to predict ten-year survival among Kansas and Nebraska Mennonites.

PubMed

Uttley, M; Crawford, M H

1994-02-01

In 1980 and 1981 Mennonite descendants of a group of Russian immigrants participated in a multidisciplinary study of biological aging. The Mennonites live in Goessel, Kansas, and Henderson, Nebraska. In 1991 the survival status of the participants was documented by each church secretary. Data are available for 1009 individuals, 177 of whom are now deceased. They ranged from 20 to 95 years in age when the data were collected. Biological ages were computed using a stepwise multiple regression procedure based on 38 variables previously identified as being related to survival, with chronological age as the dependent variable. Standardized residuals place participants in either a predicted-younger or a predicted-older group. The independence of the variables biological age and survival status is tested with the chi-square statistic. The significance of biological age differences between surviving and deceased Mennonites is determined by t test values. The two statistics provide consistent results. Predicted age group classification and survival status are related. The group of deceased participants is generally predicted to be older than the group of surviving participants, although neither statistic is significant for all subgroups of Mennonites. In most cases, however, individuals in the predicted-older groups are at a relatively higher risk of dying compared with those in the predicted-younger groups, although the increased risk is not always significant.

Application of Multiregressive Linear Models, Dynamic Kriging Models and Neural Network Models to Predictive Maintenance of Hydroelectric Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucifredi, A.; Mazzieri, C.; Rossi, M.

2000-05-01

Since the operational conditions of a hydroelectric unit can vary within a wide range, the monitoring system must be able to distinguish between the variations of the monitored variable caused by variations of the operation conditions and those due to arising and progressing of failures and misoperations. The paper aims to identify the best technique to be adopted for the monitoring system. Three different methods have been implemented and compared. Two of them use statistical techniques: the first, the linear multiple regression, expresses the monitored variable as a linear function of the process parameters (independent variables), while the second, the dynamic kriging technique, is a modified technique of multiple linear regression representing the monitored variable as a linear combination of the process variables in such a way as to minimize the variance of the estimate error. The third is based on neural networks. Tests have shown that the monitoring system based on the kriging technique is not affected by some problems common to the other two models e.g. the requirement of a large amount of data for their tuning, both for training the neural network and defining the optimum plane for the multiple regression, not only in the system starting phase but also after a trivial operation of maintenance involving the substitution of machinery components having a direct impact on the observed variable. Or, in addition, the necessity of different models to describe in a satisfactory way the different ranges of operation of the plant. The monitoring system based on the kriging statistical technique overrides the previous difficulties: it does not require a large amount of data to be tuned and is immediately operational: given two points, the third can be immediately estimated; in addition the model follows the system without adapting itself to it. The results of the experimentation performed seem to indicate that a model based on a neural network or on a linear multiple regression is not optimal, and that a different approach is necessary to reduce the amount of work during the learning phase using, when available, all the information stored during the initial phase of the plant to build the reference baseline, elaborating, if it is the case, the raw information available. A mixed approach using the kriging statistical technique and neural network techniques could optimise the result.

SMART-COP: a tool for predicting the need for intensive respiratory or vasopressor support in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Charles, Patrick G P; Wolfe, Rory; Whitby, Michael; Fine, Michael J; Fuller, Andrew J; Stirling, Robert; Wright, Alistair A; Ramirez, Julio A; Christiansen, Keryn J; Waterer, Grant W; Pierce, Robert J; Armstrong, John G; Korman, Tony M; Holmes, Peter; Obrosky, D Scott; Peyrani, Paula; Johnson, Barbara; Hooy, Michelle; Grayson, M Lindsay

2008-08-01

Existing severity assessment tools, such as the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 (tool based on confusion, urea level, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age >or=65 years), predict 30-day mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and have limited ability to predict which patients will require intensive respiratory or vasopressor support (IRVS). The Australian CAP Study (ACAPS) was a prospective study of 882 episodes in which each patient had a detailed assessment of severity features, etiology, and treatment outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify features at initial assessment that were associated with receipt of IRVS. These results were converted into a simple points-based severity tool that was validated in 5 external databases, totaling 7464 patients. In ACAPS, 10.3% of patients received IRVS, and the 30-day mortality rate was 5.7%. The features statistically significantly associated with receipt of IRVS were low systolic blood pressure (2 points), multilobar chest radiography involvement (1 point), low albumin level (1 point), high respiratory rate (1 point), tachycardia (1 point), confusion (1 point), poor oxygenation (2 points), and low arterial pH (2 points): SMART-COP. A SMART-COP score of >or=3 points identified 92% of patients who received IRVS, including 84% of patients who did not need immediate admission to the intensive care unit. Accuracy was also high in the 5 validation databases. Sensitivities of PSI and CURB-65 for identifying the need for IRVS were 74% and 39%, respectively. SMART-COP is a simple, practical clinical tool for accurately predicting the need for IRVS that is likely to assist clinicians in determining CAP severity.

Statistical study of single and multiple pulse laser-induced damage in glasses.

PubMed

Gallais, L; Natoli, J; Amra, C

2002-12-16

Single and multiple pulse laser damage studies are performed in Suprasil silica and BK-7 borosilicate glasses. Experiments are made in the bulk of materials at 1.064microm with nanosecond pulses, using an accurate and reliable measurement system. By means of a statistical study on laser damage probabilities, we demonstrate that the same nano-precursors could be involved in the multiple shot and single shot damage process. A damage mechanism with two stages is then proposed to explain the results. Firstly, a pre-damage process, corresponding to material changes at a microscopic level, leads the precursor to a state that can induce a one-pulse damage. And secondly a final damage occurs, with a mechanism identical to the single shot case. For each material, a law is found to predict the precursor life-time. We can then deduce the long term life of optical elements in high-power laser systems submitted to multipulse irradiation.

Simultaneous statistical bias correction of multiplePM2.5 species from a regional photochemical grid model

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years environmental epidemiologists have begun utilizing regionalscale air quality computer models to predict ambient air pollution concentrations in health studies instead of or in addition to monitoring data from central sites. The advantages of using such models i...

Quantifying and Generalizing Hydrologic Responses to Dam Regulation using a Statistical Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A

2014-01-01

Despite the ubiquitous existence of dams within riverscapes, much of our knowledge about dams and their environmental effects remains context-specific. Hydrology, more than any other environmental variable, has been studied in great detail with regard to dam regulation. While much progress has been made in generalizing the hydrologic effects of regulation by large dams, many aspects of hydrology show site-specific fidelity to dam operations, small dams (including diversions), and regional hydrologic regimes. A statistical modeling framework is presented to quantify and generalize hydrologic responses to varying degrees of dam regulation. Specifically, the objectives were to 1) compare the effects ofmore » local versus cumulative dam regulation, 2) determine the importance of different regional hydrologic regimes in influencing hydrologic responses to dams, and 3) evaluate how different regulation contexts lead to error in predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Overall, model performance was poor in quantifying the magnitude of hydrologic responses, but performance was sufficient in classifying hydrologic responses as negative or positive. Responses of some hydrologic indices to dam regulation were highly dependent upon hydrologic class membership and the purpose of the dam. The opposing coefficients between local and cumulative-dam predictors suggested that hydrologic responses to cumulative dam regulation are complex, and predicting the hydrology downstream of individual dams, as opposed to multiple dams, may be more easy accomplished using statistical approaches. Results also suggested that particular contexts, including multipurpose dams, high cumulative regulation by multiple dams, diversions, close proximity to dams, and certain hydrologic classes are all sources of increased error when predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Statistical models, such as the ones presented herein, show promise in their ability to model the effects of dam regulation effects at large spatial scales as to generalize the directionality of hydrologic responses.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boutilier, Justin J., E-mail: j.boutilier@mail.utoronto.ca; Lee, Taewoo; Craig, Tim

Purpose: To develop and evaluate the clinical applicability of advanced machine learning models that simultaneously predict multiple optimization objective function weights from patient geometry for intensity-modulated radiation therapy of prostate cancer. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method was applied retrospectively to determine optimal objective function weights for 315 treated patients. The authors used an overlap volume ratio (OV) of bladder and rectum for different PTV expansions and overlap volume histogram slopes (OVSR and OVSB for the rectum and bladder, respectively) as explanatory variables that quantify patient geometry. Using the optimal weights as ground truth, the authors trained and appliedmore » three prediction models: logistic regression (LR), multinomial logistic regression (MLR), and weighted K-nearest neighbor (KNN). The population average of the optimal objective function weights was also calculated. Results: The OV at 0.4 cm and OVSR at 0.1 cm features were found to be the most predictive of the weights. The authors observed comparable performance (i.e., no statistically significant difference) between LR, MLR, and KNN methodologies, with LR appearing to perform the best. All three machine learning models outperformed the population average by a statistically significant amount over a range of clinical metrics including bladder/rectum V53Gy, bladder/rectum V70Gy, and dose to the bladder, rectum, CTV, and PTV. When comparing the weights directly, the LR model predicted bladder and rectum weights that had, on average, a 73% and 74% relative improvement over the population average weights, respectively. The treatment plans resulting from the LR weights had, on average, a rectum V70Gy that was 35% closer to the clinical plan and a bladder V70Gy that was 29% closer, compared to the population average weights. Similar results were observed for all other clinical metrics. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the KNN and MLR weight prediction methodologies perform comparably to the LR model and can produce clinical quality treatment plans by simultaneously predicting multiple weights that capture trade-offs associated with sparing multiple OARs.« less

A new fracture mechanics model for multiple matrix cracks of SiC fiber reinforced brittle-matrix composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okabe, T.; Takeda, N.; Komotori, J.

1999-11-26

A new model is proposed for multiple matrix cracking in order to take into account the role of matrix-rich regions in the cross section in initiating crack growth. The model is used to predict the matrix cracking stress and the total number of matrix cracks. The model converts the matrix-rich regions into equivalent penny shape crack sizes and predicts the matrix cracking stress with a fracture mechanics crack-bridging model. The estimated distribution of matrix cracking stresses is used as statistical input to predict the number of matrix cracks. The results show good agreement with the experimental results by replica observations.more » Therefore, it is found that the matrix cracking behavior mainly depends on the distribution of matrix-rich regions in the composite.« less

Fast mean and variance computation of the diffuse sound transmission through finite-sized thick and layered wall and floor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decraene, Carolina; Dijckmans, Arne; Reynders, Edwin P. B.

2018-05-01

A method is developed for computing the mean and variance of the diffuse field sound transmission loss of finite-sized layered wall and floor systems that consist of solid, fluid and/or poroelastic layers. This is achieved by coupling a transfer matrix model of the wall or floor to statistical energy analysis subsystem models of the adjacent room volumes. The modal behavior of the wall is approximately accounted for by projecting the wall displacement onto a set of sinusoidal lateral basis functions. This hybrid modal transfer matrix-statistical energy analysis method is validated on multiple wall systems: a thin steel plate, a polymethyl methacrylate panel, a thick brick wall, a sandwich panel, a double-leaf wall with poro-elastic material in the cavity, and a double glazing. The predictions are compared with experimental data and with results obtained using alternative prediction methods such as the transfer matrix method with spatial windowing, the hybrid wave based-transfer matrix method, and the hybrid finite element-statistical energy analysis method. These comparisons confirm the prediction accuracy of the proposed method and the computational efficiency against the conventional hybrid finite element-statistical energy analysis method.

Statistical procedures for determination and verification of minimum reporting levels for drinking water methods.

PubMed

Winslow, Stephen D; Pepich, Barry V; Martin, John J; Hallberg, George R; Munch, David J; Frebis, Christopher P; Hedrick, Elizabeth J; Krop, Richard A

2006-01-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which future recovery is predicted to fall, with high confidence (99%), between 50% and 150%. The procedure takes into account precision and accuracy. Multiple concentration replicates are processed through the entire analytical method and the data are plotted as measured sample concentration (y-axis) versus true concentration (x-axis). If the data support an assumption of constant variance over the concentration range, an ordinary least-squares regression line is drawn; otherwise, a variance-weighted least-squares regression is used. Prediction interval lines of 99% confidence are drawn about the regression. At the points where the prediction interval lines intersect with data quality objective lines of 50% and 150% recovery, lines are dropped to the x-axis. The higher of the two values is the LCMRL. The LCMRL procedure is flexible because the data quality objectives (50-150%) and the prediction interval confidence (99%) can be varied to suit program needs. The LCMRL determination is performed during method development only. A simpler procedure for verification of data quality objectives at a given minimum reporting level (MRL) is also presented. The verification procedure requires a single set of seven samples taken through the entire method procedure. If the calculated prediction interval is contained within data quality recovery limits (50-150%), the laboratory performance at the MRL is verified.

Do plasma concentrations of apelin predict prognosis in patients with advanced heart failure?

PubMed

Dalzell, Jonathan R; Jackson, Colette E; Chong, Kwok S; McDonagh, Theresa A; Gardner, Roy S

2014-01-01

Apelin is an endogenous vasodilator and inotrope, plasma concentrations of which are reduced in advanced heart failure (HF). We determined the prognostic significance of plasma concentrations of apelin in advanced HF. Plasma concentrations of apelin were measured in 182 patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The predictive value of apelin for the primary end point of all-cause mortality was assessed over a median follow-up period of 544 (IQR: 196-923) days. In total, 30 patients (17%) reached the primary end point. Of those patients with a plasma apelin concentration above the median, 14 (16%) reached the primary end point compared with 16 (17%) of those with plasma apelin levels below the median (p = NS). NT-proBNP was the most powerful prognostic marker in this population (log rank statistic: 10.37; p = 0.001). Plasma apelin concentrations do not predict medium to long-term prognosis in patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

A computational statistics approach for estimating the spatial range of morphogen gradients

PubMed Central

Kanodia, Jitendra S.; Kim, Yoosik; Tomer, Raju; Khan, Zia; Chung, Kwanghun; Storey, John D.; Lu, Hang; Keller, Philipp J.; Shvartsman, Stanislav Y.

2011-01-01

A crucial issue in studies of morphogen gradients relates to their range: the distance over which they can act as direct regulators of cell signaling, gene expression and cell differentiation. To address this, we present a straightforward statistical framework that can be used in multiple developmental systems. We illustrate the developed approach by providing a point estimate and confidence interval for the spatial range of the graded distribution of nuclear Dorsal, a transcription factor that controls the dorsoventral pattern of the Drosophila embryo. PMID:22007136

NLS Handbook, 2005. National Longitudinal Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2006

2006-01-01

The National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS), sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), are a set of surveys designed to gather information at multiple points in time on the labor market experiences of groups of men and women. Each of the cohorts has been selected to represent all people living in the United States at the initial…

Helping Students Assess the Relative Importance of Different Intermolecular Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jasien, Paul G.

2008-01-01

A semi-quantitative model has been developed to estimate the relative effects of dispersion, dipole-dipole interactions, and H-bonding on the normal boiling points ("T[subscript b]") for a subset of simple organic systems. The model is based upon a statistical analysis using multiple linear regression on a series of straight-chain organic…

Relationship between foot sensation and standing balance in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Citaker, Seyit; Gunduz, Arzu Guclu; Guclu, Meral Bosnak; Nazliel, Bijen; Irkec, Ceyla; Kaya, Defne

2011-06-01

The aims of the present study were to investigate the relationship between the foot sensations and standing balance in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and find out the sensation, which best predicts balance. Twenty-seven patients with MS (Expanded Disability Status Scale 1-3.5) and 10 healthy volunteers were included. Threshold of light touch-pressure, duration of vibration, and distance of two-point discrimination of the foot sole were assessed. Duration of static one-leg standing balance was measured. Light touch-pressure, vibration, two-point discrimination sensations of the foot sole, and duration of one-leg standing balance were decreased in patients with MS compared with controls (p<0.05). Sensation of the foot sole was related with duration of one-leg standing balance in patients with MS. In the multiple regression analysis conducted in the 27 MS patients, 47.6% of the variance in the duration of one-leg standing balance was explained by two-point discrimination sensation of the heel (R(2)=0.359, p=0.001) and vibration sensation of the first metatarsal head (R(2)=0.118, p=0.029). As the cutaneous receptors sensitivity decreases in the foot sole the standing balance impairs in patients with MS. Two-point discrimination sensation of the heel and vibration sensation of the first metatarsal head region are the best predictors of the static standing balance in patients with MS. Other factors which could be possible to predict balance and effects of sensorial training of foot on balance should be investigated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic disadvantage and psychological deficits: Pathways from early cumulative risk to late-adolescent criminal conviction.

PubMed

Savolainen, Jukka; Eisman, Andria; Mason, W Alex; Schwartz, Joseph A; Miettunen, Jouko; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta

2018-06-01

Early exposure to multiple risk factors has been shown to predict criminal offending, but the mechanisms responsible for this association are poorly understood. Integrating social-environmental and dispositional theories of crime this research investigated the capacity of family socioeconomic disadvantage and individual psychological deficits to mediate the association between childhood cumulative risk and late adolescent criminal convictions. Male participants in the 1986 Northern Finland Birth Cohort Study (n = 3414) were followed from the prenatal period through age 19-20. The data were analyzed by estimating a structural equation model of the hypothesized pathways. The results found support for both processes of influence, and the model sustained a statistically significant direct effect of cumulative risk on crime. Socioeconomic disadvantage and psychological deficits contribute to criminal offending independently and with roughly equal magnitude. The results point to the utility of both environmental and psychological interventions to prevent criminality among children at risk. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Avalanche Statistics Identify Intrinsic Stellar Processes near Criticality in KIC 8462852

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikh, Mohammed A.; Weaver, Richard L.; Dahmen, Karin A.

2016-12-01

The star KIC8462852 (Tabby's star) has shown anomalous drops in light flux. We perform a statistical analysis of the more numerous smaller dimming events by using methods found useful for avalanches in ferromagnetism and plastic flow. Scaling exponents for avalanche statistics and temporal profiles of the flux during the dimming events are close to mean field predictions. Scaling collapses suggest that this star may be near a nonequilibrium critical point. The large events are interpreted as avalanches marked by modified dynamics, limited by the system size, and not within the scaling regime.

Modeling fixation locations using spatial point processes.

PubMed

Barthelmé, Simon; Trukenbrod, Hans; Engbert, Ralf; Wichmann, Felix

2013-10-01

Whenever eye movements are measured, a central part of the analysis has to do with where subjects fixate and why they fixated where they fixated. To a first approximation, a set of fixations can be viewed as a set of points in space; this implies that fixations are spatial data and that the analysis of fixation locations can be beneficially thought of as a spatial statistics problem. We argue that thinking of fixation locations as arising from point processes is a very fruitful framework for eye-movement data, helping turn qualitative questions into quantitative ones. We provide a tutorial introduction to some of the main ideas of the field of spatial statistics, focusing especially on spatial Poisson processes. We show how point processes help relate image properties to fixation locations. In particular we show how point processes naturally express the idea that image features' predictability for fixations may vary from one image to another. We review other methods of analysis used in the literature, show how they relate to point process theory, and argue that thinking in terms of point processes substantially extends the range of analyses that can be performed and clarify their interpretation.

Curved Displacement Transfer Functions for Geometric Nonlinear Large Deformation Structure Shape Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran; Lung, Shun-Fat

2017-01-01

For shape predictions of structures under large geometrically nonlinear deformations, Curved Displacement Transfer Functions were formulated based on a curved displacement, traced by a material point from the undeformed position to deformed position. The embedded beam (depth-wise cross section of a structure along a surface strain-sensing line) was discretized into multiple small domains, with domain junctures matching the strain-sensing stations. Thus, the surface strain distribution could be described with a piecewise linear or a piecewise nonlinear function. The discretization approach enabled piecewise integrations of the embedded-beam curvature equations to yield the Curved Displacement Transfer Functions, expressed in terms of embedded beam geometrical parameters and surface strains. By entering the surface strain data into the Displacement Transfer Functions, deflections along each embedded beam can be calculated at multiple points for mapping the overall structural deformed shapes. Finite-element linear and nonlinear analyses of a tapered cantilever tubular beam were performed to generate linear and nonlinear surface strains and the associated deflections to be used for validation. The shape prediction accuracies were then determined by comparing the theoretical deflections with the finiteelement- generated deflections. The results show that the newly developed Curved Displacement Transfer Functions are very accurate for shape predictions of structures under large geometrically nonlinear deformations.

The optimal hormonal replacement modality selection for multiple organ procurement from brain-dead organ donors

PubMed Central

Mi, Zhibao; Novitzky, Dimitri; Collins, Joseph F; Cooper, David KC

2015-01-01

The management of brain-dead organ donors is complex. The use of inotropic agents and replacement of depleted hormones (hormonal replacement therapy) is crucial for successful multiple organ procurement, yet the optimal hormonal replacement has not been identified, and the statistical adjustment to determine the best selection is not trivial. Traditional pair-wise comparisons between every pair of treatments, and multiple comparisons to all (MCA), are statistically conservative. Hsu’s multiple comparisons with the best (MCB) – adapted from the Dunnett’s multiple comparisons with control (MCC) – has been used for selecting the best treatment based on continuous variables. We selected the best hormonal replacement modality for successful multiple organ procurement using a two-step approach. First, we estimated the predicted margins by constructing generalized linear models (GLM) or generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and then we applied the multiple comparison methods to identify the best hormonal replacement modality given that the testing of hormonal replacement modalities is independent. Based on 10-year data from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), among 16 hormonal replacement modalities, and using the 95% simultaneous confidence intervals, we found that the combination of thyroid hormone, a corticosteroid, antidiuretic hormone, and insulin was the best modality for multiple organ procurement for transplantation. PMID:25565890

PREDICTION OF VO2PEAK USING OMNI RATINGS OF PERCEIVED EXERTION FROM A SUBMAXIMAL CYCLE EXERCISE TEST

PubMed Central

Mays, Ryan J.; Goss, Fredric L.; Nagle-Stilley, Elizabeth F.; Gallagher, Michael; Schafer, Mark A.; Kim, Kevin H.; Robertson, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Summary The primary aim of this study was to develop statistical models to predict peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) using OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion measured during submaximal cycle ergometry. Men (mean ± standard error: 20.90 ± 0.42 yrs) and women (21.59 ± 0.49 yrs) participants (n = 81) completed a load-incremented maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Simultaneous multiple linear regression was used to develop separate VO2peak statistical models using submaximal ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body, legs, and chest/breathing as predictor variables. VO2peak (L·min−1) predicted for men and women from ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.03 ± 0.04), legs (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.04 ± 0.04) and chest/breathing (3.02 ± 0.05; 2.03 ± 0.03) were similar with measured VO2peak (3.02 ± 0.10; 2.03 ± 0.06, ps > .05). Statistical models based on submaximal OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion provide an easily administered and accurate method to predict VO2peak. PMID:25068750

Predicting recreational water quality advisories: A comparison of statistical methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Wesley R.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Carvin, Rebecca B.

2016-01-01

Epidemiological studies indicate that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water are associated with illnesses among people having contact with the water. In order to mitigate public health impacts, many beaches are posted with an advisory when the concentration of FIB exceeds a beach action value. The most commonly used method of measuring FIB concentration takes 18–24 h before returning a result. In order to avoid the 24 h lag, it has become common to ”nowcast” the FIB concentration using statistical regressions on environmental surrogate variables. Most commonly, nowcast models are estimated using ordinary least squares regression, but other regression methods from the statistical and machine learning literature are sometimes used. This study compares 14 regression methods across 7 Wisconsin beaches to identify which consistently produces the most accurate predictions. A random forest model is identified as the most accurate, followed by multiple regression fit using the adaptive LASSO.

A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years.

PubMed

Paredes-Aracil, Esther; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Ots-Gutiérrez, José Ramón; Compañ-Rosique, Antonio Fernando; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2017-03-24

Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003-2016. time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas.

A system for learning statistical motion patterns.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Xiao, Xuejuan; Fu, Zhouyu; Xie, Dan; Tan, Tieniu; Maybank, Steve

2006-09-01

Analysis of motion patterns is an effective approach for anomaly detection and behavior prediction. Current approaches for the analysis of motion patterns depend on known scenes, where objects move in predefined ways. It is highly desirable to automatically construct object motion patterns which reflect the knowledge of the scene. In this paper, we present a system for automatically learning motion patterns for anomaly detection and behavior prediction based on a proposed algorithm for robustly tracking multiple objects. In the tracking algorithm, foreground pixels are clustered using a fast accurate fuzzy K-means algorithm. Growing and prediction of the cluster centroids of foreground pixels ensure that each cluster centroid is associated with a moving object in the scene. In the algorithm for learning motion patterns, trajectories are clustered hierarchically using spatial and temporal information and then each motion pattern is represented with a chain of Gaussian distributions. Based on the learned statistical motion patterns, statistical methods are used to detect anomalies and predict behaviors. Our system is tested using image sequences acquired, respectively, from a crowded real traffic scene and a model traffic scene. Experimental results show the robustness of the tracking algorithm, the efficiency of the algorithm for learning motion patterns, and the encouraging performance of algorithms for anomaly detection and behavior prediction.

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

PubMed

Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

2018-01-19

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of < 5%. Prediction accuracy for survival on day 1 was 75.2%. The most important differentiating factor was the interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on day 1. Favorable functional outcome, defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5, was observed in 68.6% of patients. Favorable functional outcome at all time points had a prediction accuracy of 71.1% in the training data set, with procalcitonin on day 1 being the most important differentiating factor at all time points. A total of 148 patients (27%) developed VP shunt dependency. The most important differentiating factor was hyperglycemia on admission. CONCLUSIONS The multiple variable analysis capability of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

Multiplicity and entropy scaling of medium-energy protons emitted in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelsalam, A.; Kamel, S.; Hafiz, M. E.

2015-10-01

The behavior and the properties of medium-energy protons with kinetic energies in the range 26 - 400 MeV is derived from measurements of the particle yields and spectra in the final state of relativistic heavy-ion collisions (16O-AgBr interactions at 60 A and 200 A GeV and 32S-AgBr interactions at 3.7 A and 200 A GeV) and their interpretation in terms of the higher order moments. The multiplicity distributions have been fitted well with the Gaussian distribution function. The data are also compared with the predictions of the modified FRITIOF model, showing that the FRITIOF model does not reproduce the trend and the magnitude of the data. Measurements of the ratio of the variance to the mean show that the production of target fragments at high energies cannot be considered as a statistically independent process. However, the deviation of each multiplicity distribution from a Poisson law provides evidence for correlations. The KNO scaling behavior of two types of scaling (Koba-Nielsen-Olesen (KNO) scaling and Hegyi scaling) functions in terms of the multiplicity distribution is investigated. A simplified universal function has been used in each scaling to display the experimental data. An examination of the relationship between the entropy, the average multiplicity, and the KNO function is performed. Entropy production and subsequent scaling in nucleus-nucleus collisions are carried out by analyzing the experimental data over a wide energy range (Dubna and SPS). Interestingly, the data points corresponding to various energies overlap and fall on a single curve, indicating the presence of a kind of entropy scaling.

A two-point diagnostic for the H II galaxy Hubble diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leaf, Kyle; Melia, Fulvio

2018-03-01

A previous analysis of starburst-dominated H II galaxies and H II regions has demonstrated a statistically significant preference for the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology with zero active mass, known as the Rh = ct universe, over Λcold dark matter (ΛCDM) and its related dark-matter parametrizations. In this paper, we employ a two-point diagnostic with these data to present a complementary statistical comparison of Rh = ct with Planck ΛCDM. Our two-point diagnostic compares, in a pairwise fashion, the difference between the distance modulus measured at two redshifts with that predicted by each cosmology. Our results support the conclusion drawn by a previous comparative analysis demonstrating that Rh = ct is statistically preferred over Planck ΛCDM. But we also find that the reported errors in the H II measurements may not be purely Gaussian, perhaps due to a partial contamination by non-Gaussian systematic effects. The use of H II galaxies and H II regions as standard candles may be improved even further with a better handling of the systematics in these sources.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

A quiz becomes a multidirectional dialogue with Web-based instructional tools for an anatomical pathology rotation.

PubMed

Fales-Williams, Amanda; Kramer, Travis; Heer, Rex; Danielson, Jared

2005-01-01

Senior veterinary students in the Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine (ISU CVM) participate in clinical rotations, among them a two-week necropsy rotation. The students have access to the rotation syllabus on the ISU CVM intranet site. To promote rapid comprehension of necropsy protocol, students completed a pre-exam on the syllabus. This exercise evolved from a paper quiz to an online pre-exam, using course management software to improve use of class time, increase feedback, and shift the focus to acquisition of knowledge. The students were encouraged to work collaboratively on the pre-exam and could make repeated attempts. We predicted that professional students would make multiple attempts at the pre-exam until the desired score was attained. This exercise achieves multiple goals. First, the exam encourages early review of necropsy protocol. Second, use of WebCT allows for instant, automatic, and consistent feedback from the instructor, reducing redundancy while improving the quality of communication between student and instructor and thus using faculty time more efficiently. The instructor can quickly identify and rectify common misunderstandings through this interface. Third, by allowing discussion and repeated attempts, we can ensure that there is less pressure associated with the exam. Statistical analysis of the students' performance supports the prediction that students would repeat the exam until the desired score was achieved. Subjectively, as a result of implementation of an online pre-exam, the instructor has observed students to be more engaged with the material at an earlier point in the rotation.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Gravitational Lensing Effect on the Two-Point Correlation of Hot Spots in the Cosmic Microwave Background.

PubMed

Takada; Komatsu; Futamase

2000-04-20

We investigate the weak gravitational lensing effect that is due to the large-scale structure of the universe on two-point correlations of local maxima (hot spots) in the two-dimensional sky map of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy. According to the Gaussian random statistics, as most inflationary scenarios predict, the hot spots are discretely distributed, with some characteristic angular separations on the last scattering surface that are due to oscillations of the CMB angular power spectrum. The weak lensing then causes pairs of hot spots, which are separated with the characteristic scale, to be observed with various separations. We found that the lensing fairly smooths out the oscillatory features of the two-point correlation function of hot spots. This indicates that the hot spot correlations can be a new statistical tool for measuring the shape and normalization of the power spectrum of matter fluctuations from the lensing signatures.

eShadow: A tool for comparing closely related sequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ovcharenko, Ivan; Boffelli, Dario; Loots, Gabriela G.

2004-01-15

Primate sequence comparisons are difficult to interpret due to the high degree of sequence similarity shared between such closely related species. Recently, a novel method, phylogenetic shadowing, has been pioneered for predicting functional elements in the human genome through the analysis of multiple primate sequence alignments. We have expanded this theoretical approach to create a computational tool, eShadow, for the identification of elements under selective pressure in multiple sequence alignments of closely related genomes, such as in comparisons of human to primate or mouse to rat DNA. This tool integrates two different statistical methods and allows for the dynamic visualizationmore » of the resulting conservation profile. eShadow also includes a versatile optimization module capable of training the underlying Hidden Markov Model to differentially predict functional sequences. This module grants the tool high flexibility in the analysis of multiple sequence alignments and in comparing sequences with different divergence rates. Here, we describe the eShadow comparative tool and its potential uses for analyzing both multiple nucleotide and protein alignments to predict putative functional elements. The eShadow tool is publicly available at http://eshadow.dcode.org/« less

The effect of baryons in the cosmological lensing PDFs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Tiago; Quartin, Miguel; Giocoli, Carlo; Borgani, Stefano; Dolag, Klaus

2018-07-01

Observational cosmology is passing through a unique moment of grandeur with the amount of quality data growing fast. However, in order to better take advantage of this moment, data analysis tools have to keep up the pace. Understanding the effect of baryonic matter on the large-scale structure is one of the challenges to be faced in cosmology. In this work, we have thoroughly studied the effect of baryonic physics on different lensing statistics. Making use of the Magneticum Pathfinder suite of simulations, we show that the influence of luminous matter on the 1-point lensing statistics of point sources is significant, enhancing the probability of magnified objects with μ > 3 by a factor of 2 and the occurrence of multiple images by a factor of 5-500, depending on the source redshift and size. We also discuss the dependence of the lensing statistics on the angular resolution of sources. Our results and methodology were carefully tested to guarantee that our uncertainties are much smaller than the effects here presented.

The effect of baryons in the cosmological lensing PDFs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Tiago; Quartin, Miguel; Giocoli, Carlo; Borgani, Stefano; Dolag, Klaus

2018-05-01

Observational cosmology is passing through a unique moment of grandeur with the amount of quality data growing fast. However, in order to better take advantage of this moment, data analysis tools have to keep up the pace. Understanding the effect of baryonic matter on the large-scale structure is one of the challenges to be faced in cosmology. In this work, we have thoroughly studied the effect of baryonic physics on different lensing statistics. Making use of the Magneticum Pathfinder suite of simulations we show that the influence of luminous matter on the 1-point lensing statistics of point sources is significant, enhancing the probability of magnified objects with μ > 3 by a factor of 2 and the occurrence of multiple-images by a factor 5 - 500 depending on the source redshift and size. We also discuss the dependence of the lensing statistics on the angular resolution of sources. Our results and methodology were carefully tested in order to guarantee that our uncertainties are much smaller than the effects here presented.

Using string invariants for prediction searching for optimal parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundzel, Marek; Kasanický, Tomáš; Pinčák, Richard

2016-02-01

We have developed a novel prediction method based on string invariants. The method does not require learning but a small set of parameters must be set to achieve optimal performance. We have implemented an evolutionary algorithm for the parametric optimization. We have tested the performance of the method on artificial and real world data and compared the performance to statistical methods and to a number of artificial intelligence methods. We have used data and the results of a prediction competition as a benchmark. The results show that the method performs well in single step prediction but the method's performance for multiple step prediction needs to be improved. The method works well for a wide range of parameters.

Hourly predictive Levenberg-Marquardt ANN and multi linear regression models for predicting of dew point temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad

2012-08-01

In this study, the ability of two models of multi linear regression (MLR) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) feed-forward neural network was examined to estimate the hourly dew point temperature. Dew point temperature is the temperature at which water vapor in the air condenses into liquid. This temperature can be useful in estimating meteorological variables such as fog, rain, snow, dew, and evapotranspiration and in investigating agronomical issues as stomatal closure in plants. The availability of hourly records of climatic data (air temperature, relative humidity and pressure) which could be used to predict dew point temperature initiated the practice of modeling. Additionally, the wind vector (wind speed magnitude and direction) and conceptual input of weather condition were employed as other input variables. The three quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, i.e. the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and absolute logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( {| {{{Log}}({{NS}})} |} ) were employed to evaluate the performances of the developed models. The results showed that applying wind vector and weather condition as input vectors along with meteorological variables could slightly increase the ANN and MLR predictive accuracy. The results also revealed that LM-NN was superior to MLR model and the best performance was obtained by considering all potential input variables in terms of different evaluation criteria.

Incremental Implicit Learning of Bundles of Statistical Patterns

PubMed Central

Qian, Ting; Jaeger, T. Florian; Aslin, Richard N.

2016-01-01

Forming an accurate representation of a task environment often takes place incrementally as the information relevant to learning the representation only unfolds over time. This incremental nature of learning poses an important problem: it is usually unclear whether a sequence of stimuli consists of only a single pattern, or multiple patterns that are spliced together. In the former case, the learner can directly use each observed stimulus to continuously revise its representation of the task environment. In the latter case, however, the learner must first parse the sequence of stimuli into different bundles, so as to not conflate the multiple patterns. We created a video-game statistical learning paradigm and investigated 1) whether learners without prior knowledge of the existence of multiple “stimulus bundles” — subsequences of stimuli that define locally coherent statistical patterns — could detect their presence in the input, and 2) whether learners are capable of constructing a rich representation that encodes the various statistical patterns associated with bundles. By comparing human learning behavior to the predictions of three computational models, we find evidence that learners can handle both tasks successfully. In addition, we discuss the underlying reasons for why the learning of stimulus bundles occurs even when such behavior may seem irrational. PMID:27639552

Predicting falls in older adults using the four square step test.

PubMed

Cleary, Kimberly; Skornyakov, Elena

2017-10-01

The Four Square Step Test (FSST) is a performance-based balance tool involving stepping over four single-point canes placed on the floor in a cross configuration. The purpose of this study was to evaluate properties of the FSST in older adults who lived independently. Forty-five community dwelling older adults provided fall history and completed the FSST, Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), and Tinetti in random order. Future falls were recorded for 12 months following testing. The FSST accurately distinguished between non-fallers and multiple fallers, and the 15-second threshold score accurately distinguished multiple fallers from non-multiple fallers based on fall history. The FSST predicted future falls, and performance on the FSST was significantly correlated with performance on the BBS, TUG, and Tinetti. However, the test is not appropriate for older adults who use walkers. Overall, the FSST is a valid yet underutilized measure of balance performance and fall prediction tool that physical therapists should consider using in ambulatory community dwelling older adults.

Detecting Multiple Model Components with the Likelihood Ratio Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protassov, R. S.; van Dyk, D. A.

2000-05-01

The likelihood ratio test (LRT) and F-test popularized in astrophysics by Bevington (Data Reduction and Error Analysis in the Physical Sciences ) and Cash (1977, ApJ 228, 939), do not (even asymptotically) adhere to their nominal χ2 and F distributions in many statistical tests commonly used in astrophysics. The many legitimate uses of the LRT (see, e.g., the examples given in Cash (1977)) notwithstanding, it can be impossible to compute the false positive rate of the LRT or related tests such as the F-test. For example, although Cash (1977) did not suggest the LRT for detecting a line profile in a spectral model, it has become common practice despite the lack of certain required mathematical regularity conditions. Contrary to common practice, the nominal distribution of the LRT statistic should not be used in these situations. In this paper, we characterize an important class of problems where the LRT fails, show the non-standard behavior of the test in this setting, and provide a Bayesian alternative to the LRT, i.e., posterior predictive p-values. We emphasize that there are many legitimate uses of the LRT in astrophysics, and even when the LRT is inappropriate, there remain several statistical alternatives (e.g., judicious use of error bars and Bayes factors). We illustrate this point in our analysis of GRB 970508 that was studied by Piro et al. in ApJ, 514:L73-L77, 1999.

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.

PubMed

Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska

2017-09-11

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.

Automatically detect and track infrared small targets with kernel Fukunaga-Koontz transform and Kalman prediction.

PubMed

Liu, Ruiming; Liu, Erqi; Yang, Jie; Zeng, Yong; Wang, Fanglin; Cao, Yuan

2007-11-01

Fukunaga-Koontz transform (FKT), stemming from principal component analysis (PCA), is used in many pattern recognition and image-processing fields. It cannot capture the higher-order statistical property of natural images, so its detection performance is not satisfying. PCA has been extended into kernel PCA in order to capture the higher-order statistics. However, thus far there have been no researchers who have definitely proposed kernel FKT (KFKT) and researched its detection performance. For accurately detecting potential small targets from infrared images, we first extend FKT into KFKT to capture the higher-order statistical properties of images. Then a framework based on Kalman prediction and KFKT, which can automatically detect and track small targets, is developed. Results of experiments show that KFKT outperforms FKT and the proposed framework is competent to automatically detect and track infrared point targets.

Automatically detect and track infrared small targets with kernel Fukunaga-Koontz transform and Kalman prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ruiming; Liu, Erqi; Yang, Jie; Zeng, Yong; Wang, Fanglin; Cao, Yuan

2007-11-01

Fukunaga-Koontz transform (FKT), stemming from principal component analysis (PCA), is used in many pattern recognition and image-processing fields. It cannot capture the higher-order statistical property of natural images, so its detection performance is not satisfying. PCA has been extended into kernel PCA in order to capture the higher-order statistics. However, thus far there have been no researchers who have definitely proposed kernel FKT (KFKT) and researched its detection performance. For accurately detecting potential small targets from infrared images, we first extend FKT into KFKT to capture the higher-order statistical properties of images. Then a framework based on Kalman prediction and KFKT, which can automatically detect and track small targets, is developed. Results of experiments show that KFKT outperforms FKT and the proposed framework is competent to automatically detect and track infrared point targets.

The Effect of Scale Dependent Discretization on the Progressive Failure of Composite Materials Using Multiscale Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Pineda, Evan J.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2013-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology, which incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled micromechanics/ finite element analyses, is applied to unidirectional polymer matrix composites (PMCs) to analyze the effect of mesh discretization both at the micro- and macroscales on the predicted ultimate tensile (UTS) strength and failure behavior. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a PMC tensile specimen that initiates at the repeating unit cell (RUC) level. Three different finite element mesh densities were employed and each coupled with an appropriate RUC. Multiple simulations were performed in order to assess the effect of a statistical distribution of fiber strengths on the bulk composite failure and predicted strength. The coupled effects of both the micro- and macroscale discretizations were found to have a noticeable effect on the predicted UTS and computational efficiency of the simulations.

Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

2017-03-01

This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-01-01

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

Predicting Slag Generation in Sub-Scale Test Motors Using a Neural Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiesenberg, Brent

1999-01-01

Generation of slag (aluminum oxide) is an important issue for the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Thiokol performed testing to quantify the relationship between raw material variations and slag generation in solid propellants by testing sub-scale motors cast with propellant containing various combinations of aluminum fuel and ammonium perchlorate (AP) oxidizer particle sizes. The test data were analyzed using statistical methods and an artificial neural network. This paper primarily addresses the neural network results with some comparisons to the statistical results. The neural network showed that the particle sizes of both the aluminum and unground AP have a measurable effect on slag generation. The neural network analysis showed that aluminum particle size is the dominant driver in slag generation, about 40% more influential than AP. The network predictions of the amount of slag produced during firing of sub-scale motors were 16% better than the predictions of a statistically derived empirical equation. Another neural network successfully characterized the slag generated during full-scale motor tests. The success is attributable to the ability of neural networks to characterize multiple complex factors including interactions that affect slag generation.

Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers: results from the EPIC cohort.

PubMed

Fortner, Renée T; Hüsing, Anika; Kühn, Tilman; Konar, Meric; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Hansen, Louise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Severi, Gianluca; Fournier, Agnès; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Benetou, Vasiliki; Orfanos, Philippos; Masala, Giovanna; Agnoli, Claudia; Mattiello, Amalia; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Peeters, Petra H M; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Gram, Inger T; Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Quirós, J Ramón; Maria Huerta, José; Ardanaz, Eva; Larrañaga, Nerea; Lujan-Barroso, Leila; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Butt, Salma Tunå; Borgquist, Signe; Idahl, Annika; Lundin, Eva; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Allen, Naomi E; Rinaldi, Sabina; Dossus, Laure; Gunter, Marc; Merritt, Melissa A; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Riboli, Elio; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-03-15

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were selected into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination. © 2016 UICC.

Predicting protein thermal stability changes upon point mutations using statistical potentials: Introducing HoTMuSiC.

PubMed

Pucci, Fabrizio; Bourgeas, Raphaël; Rooman, Marianne

2016-03-18

The accurate prediction of the impact of an amino acid substitution on the thermal stability of a protein is a central issue in protein science, and is of key relevance for the rational optimization of various bioprocesses that use enzymes in unusual conditions. Here we present one of the first computational tools to predict the change in melting temperature ΔTm upon point mutations, given the protein structure and, when available, the melting temperature Tm of the wild-type protein. The key ingredients of our model structure are standard and temperature-dependent statistical potentials, which are combined with the help of an artificial neural network. The model structure was chosen on the basis of a detailed thermodynamic analysis of the system. The parameters of the model were identified on a set of more than 1,600 mutations with experimentally measured ΔTm. The performance of our method was tested using a strict 5-fold cross-validation procedure, and was found to be significantly superior to that of competing methods. We obtained a root mean square deviation between predicted and experimental ΔTm values of 4.2 °C that reduces to 2.9 °C when ten percent outliers are removed. A webserver-based tool is freely available for non-commercial use at soft.dezyme.com.

Virtual reconstruction of glenoid bone defects using a statistical shape model.

PubMed

Plessers, Katrien; Vanden Berghe, Peter; Van Dijck, Christophe; Wirix-Speetjens, Roel; Debeer, Philippe; Jonkers, Ilse; Vander Sloten, Jos

2018-01-01

Description of the native shape of a glenoid helps surgeons to preoperatively plan the position of a shoulder implant. A statistical shape model (SSM) can be used to virtually reconstruct a glenoid bone defect and to predict the inclination, version, and center position of the native glenoid. An SSM-based reconstruction method has already been developed for acetabular bone reconstruction. The goal of this study was to evaluate the SSM-based method for the reconstruction of glenoid bone defects and the prediction of native anatomic parameters. First, an SSM was created on the basis of 66 healthy scapulae. Then, artificial bone defects were created in all scapulae and reconstructed using the SSM-based reconstruction method. For each bone defect, the reconstructed surface was compared with the original surface. Furthermore, the inclination, version, and glenoid center point of the reconstructed surface were compared with the original parameters of each scapula. For small glenoid bone defects, the healthy surface of the glenoid was reconstructed with a root mean square error of 1.2 ± 0.4 mm. Inclination, version, and glenoid center point were predicted with an accuracy of 2.4° ± 2.1°, 2.9° ± 2.2°, and 1.8 ± 0.8 mm, respectively. The SSM-based reconstruction method is able to accurately reconstruct the native glenoid surface and to predict the native anatomic parameters. Based on this outcome, statistical shape modeling can be considered a successful technique for use in the preoperative planning of shoulder arthroplasty. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

PubMed

Haas, Timothy C; Ferreira, Sam M

2016-08-01

We develop a risk intelligence system for biodiversity enterprises. Such enterprises depend on a supply of endangered species for their revenue. Many of these enterprises, however, cannot purchase a supply of this resource and are largely unable to secure the resource against theft in the form of poaching. Because replacements are not available once a species becomes extinct, insurance products are not available to reduce the risk exposure of these enterprises to an extinction event. For many species, the dynamics of anthropogenic impacts driven by economic as well as noneconomic values of associated wildlife products along with their ecological stressors can help meaningfully predict extinction risks. We develop an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model that captures these effects and apply it to the case of South African rhinos. Our model uses observed rhino dynamics and poaching statistics. It seeks to predict rhino extinction under the present scenario. This scenario has no legal horn trade, but allows live African rhino trade and legal hunting. Present rhino populations are small and threatened by a rising onslaught of poaching. This present scenario and associated dynamics predicts continued decline in rhino population size with accelerated extinction risks of rhinos by 2036. Our model supports the computation of extinction risks at any future time point. This capability can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservation strategies at reducing a species' extinction risk. Models used to compute risk predictions, however, need to be statistically estimated. We point out that statistically fitting such models to observations will involve massive numbers of observations on consumer behavior and time-stamped location observations on thousands of animals. Finally, we propose Big Data algorithms to perform such estimates and to interpret the fitted model's output.

Inflationary tensor fossils in large-scale structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimastrogiovanni, Emanuela; Fasiello, Matteo; Jeong, Donghui

Inflation models make specific predictions for a tensor-scalar-scalar three-point correlation, or bispectrum, between one gravitational-wave (tensor) mode and two density-perturbation (scalar) modes. This tensor-scalar-scalar correlation leads to a local power quadrupole, an apparent departure from statistical isotropy in our Universe, as well as characteristic four-point correlations in the current mass distribution in the Universe. So far, the predictions for these observables have been worked out only for single-clock models in which certain consistency conditions between the tensor-scalar-scalar correlation and tensor and scalar power spectra are satisfied. Here we review the requirements on inflation models for these consistency conditions to bemore » satisfied. We then consider several examples of inflation models, such as non-attractor and solid-inflation models, in which these conditions are put to the test. In solid inflation the simplest consistency conditions are already violated whilst in the non-attractor model we find that, contrary to the standard scenario, the tensor-scalar-scalar correlator probes directly relevant model-dependent information. We work out the predictions for observables in these models. For non-attractor inflation we find an apparent local quadrupolar departure from statistical isotropy in large-scale structure but that this power quadrupole decreases very rapidly at smaller scales. The consistency of the CMB quadrupole with statistical isotropy then constrains the distance scale that corresponds to the transition from the non-attractor to attractor phase of inflation to be larger than the currently observable horizon. Solid inflation predicts clustering fossils signatures in the current galaxy distribution that may be large enough to be detectable with forthcoming, and possibly even current, galaxy surveys.« less

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

Analyzing the Validity of the Adult-Adolescent Parenting Inventory for Low-Income Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawson, Michael A.; Alameda-Lawson, Tania; Byrnes, Edward

2017-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the construct and predictive validity of the Adult-Adolescent Parenting Inventory (AAPI-2). Methods: The validity of the AAPI-2 was evaluated using multiple statistical methods, including exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and latent class analysis. These analyses were…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kandler; Shi, Ying; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

Predictive models of Li-ion battery lifetime must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal, and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. To complicate matters, Li-ion batteries can experience different degradation trajectories that depend on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. We present a generalized battery life prognostic model framework for battery systems design and control. The model framework consists of trial functions that are statistically regressed to Li-ion cell life datasets wherein the cells have been aged under differentmore » levels of stress. Degradation mechanisms and rate laws dependent on temperature, storage, and cycling condition are regressed to the data, with multiple model hypotheses evaluated and the best model down-selected based on statistics. The resulting life prognostic model, implemented in state variable form, is extensible to arbitrary real-world scenarios. The model is applicable in real-time control algorithms to maximize battery life and performance. We discuss efforts to reduce lifetime prediction error and accommodate its inevitable impact in controller design.« less

From Principal Component to Direct Coupling Analysis of Coevolution in Proteins: Low-Eigenvalue Modes are Needed for Structure Prediction

PubMed Central

Cocco, Simona; Monasson, Remi; Weigt, Martin

2013-01-01

Various approaches have explored the covariation of residues in multiple-sequence alignments of homologous proteins to extract functional and structural information. Among those are principal component analysis (PCA), which identifies the most correlated groups of residues, and direct coupling analysis (DCA), a global inference method based on the maximum entropy principle, which aims at predicting residue-residue contacts. In this paper, inspired by the statistical physics of disordered systems, we introduce the Hopfield-Potts model to naturally interpolate between these two approaches. The Hopfield-Potts model allows us to identify relevant ‘patterns’ of residues from the knowledge of the eigenmodes and eigenvalues of the residue-residue correlation matrix. We show how the computation of such statistical patterns makes it possible to accurately predict residue-residue contacts with a much smaller number of parameters than DCA. This dimensional reduction allows us to avoid overfitting and to extract contact information from multiple-sequence alignments of reduced size. In addition, we show that low-eigenvalue correlation modes, discarded by PCA, are important to recover structural information: the corresponding patterns are highly localized, that is, they are concentrated in few sites, which we find to be in close contact in the three-dimensional protein fold. PMID:23990764

Defining Multiple Characteristic Raman Bands of α-Amino Acids as Biomarkers for Planetary Missions Using a Statistical Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolfe, S. M.; Patel, M. R.; Gilmour, I.; Olsson-Francis, K.; Ringrose, T. J.

2016-06-01

Biomarker molecules, such as amino acids, are key to discovering whether life exists elsewhere in the Solar System. Raman spectroscopy, a technique capable of detecting biomarkers, will be on board future planetary missions including the ExoMars rover. Generally, the position of the strongest band in the spectra of amino acids is reported as the identifying band. However, for an unknown sample, it is desirable to define multiple characteristic bands for molecules to avoid any ambiguous identification. To date, there has been no definition of multiple characteristic bands for amino acids of interest to astrobiology. This study examined l-alanine, l-aspartic acid, l-cysteine, l-glutamine and glycine and defined several Raman bands per molecule for reference as characteristic identifiers. Per amino acid, 240 spectra were recorded and compared using established statistical tests including ANOVA. The number of characteristic bands defined were 10, 12, 12, 14 and 19 for l-alanine (strongest intensity band: 832 cm-1), l-aspartic acid (938 cm-1), l-cysteine (679 cm-1), l-glutamine (1090 cm-1) and glycine (875 cm-1), respectively. The intensity of bands differed by up to six times when several points on the crystal sample were rotated through 360 °; to reduce this effect when defining characteristic bands for other molecules, we find that spectra should be recorded at a statistically significant number of points per sample to remove the effect of sample rotation. It is crucial that sets of characteristic Raman bands are defined for biomarkers that are targets for future planetary missions to ensure a positive identification can be made.

Defining Multiple Characteristic Raman Bands of α-Amino Acids as Biomarkers for Planetary Missions Using a Statistical Method.

PubMed

Rolfe, S M; Patel, M R; Gilmour, I; Olsson-Francis, K; Ringrose, T J

2016-06-01

Biomarker molecules, such as amino acids, are key to discovering whether life exists elsewhere in the Solar System. Raman spectroscopy, a technique capable of detecting biomarkers, will be on board future planetary missions including the ExoMars rover. Generally, the position of the strongest band in the spectra of amino acids is reported as the identifying band. However, for an unknown sample, it is desirable to define multiple characteristic bands for molecules to avoid any ambiguous identification. To date, there has been no definition of multiple characteristic bands for amino acids of interest to astrobiology. This study examined L-alanine, L-aspartic acid, L-cysteine, L-glutamine and glycine and defined several Raman bands per molecule for reference as characteristic identifiers. Per amino acid, 240 spectra were recorded and compared using established statistical tests including ANOVA. The number of characteristic bands defined were 10, 12, 12, 14 and 19 for L-alanine (strongest intensity band: 832 cm(-1)), L-aspartic acid (938 cm(-1)), L-cysteine (679 cm(-1)), L-glutamine (1090 cm(-1)) and glycine (875 cm(-1)), respectively. The intensity of bands differed by up to six times when several points on the crystal sample were rotated through 360 °; to reduce this effect when defining characteristic bands for other molecules, we find that spectra should be recorded at a statistically significant number of points per sample to remove the effect of sample rotation. It is crucial that sets of characteristic Raman bands are defined for biomarkers that are targets for future planetary missions to ensure a positive identification can be made.

Three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (3D QSAR) and pharmacophore elucidation of tetrahydropyran derivatives as serotonin and norepinephrine transporter inhibitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharkar, Prashant S.; Reith, Maarten E. A.; Dutta, Aloke K.

2008-01-01

Three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (3D QSAR) using comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) was performed on a series of substituted tetrahydropyran (THP) derivatives possessing serotonin (SERT) and norepinephrine (NET) transporter inhibitory activities. The study aimed to rationalize the potency of these inhibitors for SERT and NET as well as the observed selectivity differences for NET over SERT. The dataset consisted of 29 molecules, of which 23 molecules were used as the training set for deriving CoMFA models for SERT and NET uptake inhibitory activities. Superimpositions were performed using atom-based fitting and 3-point pharmacophore-based alignment. Two charge calculation methods, Gasteiger-Hückel and semiempirical PM3, were tried. Both alignment methods were analyzed in terms of their predictive abilities and produced comparable results with high internal and external predictivities. The models obtained using the 3-point pharmacophore-based alignment outperformed the models with atom-based fitting in terms of relevant statistics and interpretability of the generated contour maps. Steric fields dominated electrostatic fields in terms of contribution. The selectivity analysis (NET over SERT), though yielded models with good internal predictivity, showed very poor external test set predictions. The analysis was repeated with 24 molecules after systematically excluding so-called outliers (5 out of 29) from the model derivation process. The resulting CoMFA model using the atom-based fitting exhibited good statistics and was able to explain most of the selectivity (NET over SERT)-discriminating factors. The presence of -OH substituent on the THP ring was found to be one of the most important factors governing the NET selectivity over SERT. Thus, a 4-point NET-selective pharmacophore, after introducing this newly found H-bond donor/acceptor feature in addition to the initial 3-point pharmacophore, was proposed.

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score.

PubMed

Martinez-Garcia, M A; Athanazio, R A; Girón, R; Máiz-Carro, L; de la Rosa, D; Olveira, C; de Gracia, J; Vendrell, M; Prados-Sánchez, C; Gramblicka, G; Corso Pereira, M; Lundgren, F L; Fernandes De Figueiredo, M; Arancibia, F; Rached, S Z

2017-01-01

Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P <0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score's simplicity and prognostic capacity for death.

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

PubMed Central

Martinez-Garcia, MA; Athanazio, RA; Girón, R; Máiz-Carro, L; de la Rosa, D; Olveira, C; de Gracia, J; Vendrell, M; Prados-Sánchez, C; Gramblicka, G; Corso Pereira, M; Lundgren, FL; Fernandes De Figueiredo, M; Arancibia, F; Rached, SZ

2017-01-01

Background Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Objective Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. Methods The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. Results A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P<0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. Conclusion E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score’s simplicity and prognostic capacity for death. PMID:28182132

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Cosmic shear measurements with Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data

DOE PAGES

Becker, M. R.

2016-07-06

Here, we present measurements of weak gravitational lensing cosmic shear two-point statistics using Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data. We demonstrate that our results are robust to the choice of shear measurement pipeline, either ngmix or im3shape, and robust to the choice of two-point statistic, including both real and Fourier-space statistics. Our results pass a suite of null tests including tests for B-mode contamination and direct tests for any dependence of the two-point functions on a set of 16 observing conditions and galaxy properties, such as seeing, airmass, galaxy color, galaxy magnitude, etc. We use a large suite of simulationsmore » to compute the covariance matrix of the cosmic shear measurements and assign statistical significance to our null tests. We find that our covariance matrix is consistent with the halo model prediction, indicating that it has the appropriate level of halo sample variance. We also compare the same jackknife procedure applied to the data and the simulations in order to search for additional sources of noise not captured by the simulations. We find no statistically significant extra sources of noise in the data. The overall detection significance with tomography for our highest source density catalog is 9.7σ. Cosmological constraints from the measurements in this work are presented in a companion paper.« less

Cross-situational statistical word learning in young children.

PubMed

Suanda, Sumarga H; Mugwanya, Nassali; Namy, Laura L

2014-10-01

Recent empirical work has highlighted the potential role of cross-situational statistical word learning in children's early vocabulary development. In the current study, we tested 5- to 7-year-old children's cross-situational learning by presenting children with a series of ambiguous naming events containing multiple words and multiple referents. Children rapidly learned word-to-object mappings by attending to the co-occurrence regularities across these ambiguous naming events. The current study begins to address the mechanisms underlying children's learning by demonstrating that the diversity of learning contexts affects performance. The implications of the current findings for the role of cross-situational word learning at different points in development are discussed along with the methodological implications of employing school-aged children to test hypotheses regarding the mechanisms supporting early word learning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Waste generated in high-rise buildings construction: a quantification model based on statistical multiple regression.

PubMed

Parisi Kern, Andrea; Ferreira Dias, Michele; Piva Kulakowski, Marlova; Paulo Gomes, Luciana

2015-05-01

Reducing construction waste is becoming a key environmental issue in the construction industry. The quantification of waste generation rates in the construction sector is an invaluable management tool in supporting mitigation actions. However, the quantification of waste can be a difficult process because of the specific characteristics and the wide range of materials used in different construction projects. Large variations are observed in the methods used to predict the amount of waste generated because of the range of variables involved in construction processes and the different contexts in which these methods are employed. This paper proposes a statistical model to determine the amount of waste generated in the construction of high-rise buildings by assessing the influence of design process and production system, often mentioned as the major culprits behind the generation of waste in construction. Multiple regression was used to conduct a case study based on multiple sources of data of eighteen residential buildings. The resulting statistical model produced dependent (i.e. amount of waste generated) and independent variables associated with the design and the production system used. The best regression model obtained from the sample data resulted in an adjusted R(2) value of 0.694, which means that it predicts approximately 69% of the factors involved in the generation of waste in similar constructions. Most independent variables showed a low determination coefficient when assessed in isolation, which emphasizes the importance of assessing their joint influence on the response (dependent) variable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal Factors Predicting Cognitive and Behavioral Characteristics of Children with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

May, Philip A.; Tabachnick, Barbara G.; Gossage, J. Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K.; Manning, Melanie A.; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M.

2013-01-01

Objective To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). Method Multivariate correlation techniques were employed with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and employed in structural equation models (SEM) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and non-verbal) and behavior. Results A first SEM utilizing only seven maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05), but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status (SES), and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model, and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Conclusions While other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly-controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD. PMID:23751886

A multiple imputation strategy for sequential multiple assignment randomized trials

PubMed Central

Shortreed, Susan M.; Laber, Eric; Stroup, T. Scott; Pineau, Joelle; Murphy, Susan A.

2014-01-01

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) are increasingly being used to inform clinical and intervention science. In a SMART, each patient is repeatedly randomized over time. Each randomization occurs at a critical decision point in the treatment course. These critical decision points often correspond to milestones in the disease process or other changes in a patient’s health status. Thus, the timing and number of randomizations may vary across patients and depend on evolving patient-specific information. This presents unique challenges when analyzing data from a SMART in the presence of missing data. This paper presents the first comprehensive discussion of missing data issues typical of SMART studies: we describe five specific challenges, and propose a flexible imputation strategy to facilitate valid statistical estimation and inference using incomplete data from a SMART. To illustrate these contributions, we consider data from the Clinical Antipsychotic Trial of Intervention and Effectiveness (CATIE), one of the most well-known SMARTs to date. PMID:24919867

On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs

PubMed Central

Truccolo, Wilson

2017-01-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity. PMID:28234899

On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs.

PubMed

Gerhard, Felipe; Deger, Moritz; Truccolo, Wilson

2017-02-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity.

Imputation of Test Scores in the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bokossa, Maxime C.; Huang, Gary G.

This report describes the imputation procedures used to deal with missing data in the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), the only current National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) dataset that contains scores from cognitive tests given the same set of students at multiple time points. As is inevitable, cognitive test…

Apparent diffusion coefficient histogram analysis can evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage and predict late xerostomia degree in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PubMed Central

Zhou, Nan; Guo, Tingting; Zheng, Huanhuan; Pan, Xia; Chu, Chen; Dou, Xin; Li, Ming; Liu, Song; Zhu, Lijing; Liu, Baorui; Chen, Weibo; He, Jian; Yan, Jing; Zhou, Zhengyang; Yang, Xiaofeng

2017-01-01

We investigated apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis to evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage and predict xerostomia degrees in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving radiotherapy. The imaging of bilateral parotid glands in NPC patients was conducted 2 weeks before radiotherapy (time point 1), one month after radiotherapy (time point 2), and four months after radiotherapy (time point 3). From time point 1 to 2, parotid volume, skewness, and kurtosis decreased (P < 0.001, = 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively), but all other ADC histogram parameters increased (all P < 0.001, except P = 0.006 for standard deviation [SD]). From time point 2 to 3, parotid volume continued to decrease (P = 0.022), and SD, 75th and 90th percentiles continued to increase (P = 0.024, 0.010, and 0.006, respectively). Early change rates of parotid ADCmean, ADCmin, kurtosis, and 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th percentiles (from time point 1 to 2) correlated with late parotid atrophy rate (from time point 1 to 3) (all P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed correlations among parotid volume, time point, and ADC histogram parameters. Early mean change rates for bilateral parotid SD and ADCmax could predict late xerostomia degrees at seven months after radiotherapy (three months after time point 3) with AUC of 0.781 and 0.818 (P = 0.014, 0.005, respectively). ADC histogram parameters were reproducible (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.830 - 0.999). ADC histogram analysis could be used to evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage noninvasively, and predict late xerostomia degrees of NPC patients treated with radiotherapy. PMID:29050274

Apparent diffusion coefficient histogram analysis can evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage and predict late xerostomia degree in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhou, Nan; Guo, Tingting; Zheng, Huanhuan; Pan, Xia; Chu, Chen; Dou, Xin; Li, Ming; Liu, Song; Zhu, Lijing; Liu, Baorui; Chen, Weibo; He, Jian; Yan, Jing; Zhou, Zhengyang; Yang, Xiaofeng

2017-09-19

We investigated apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis to evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage and predict xerostomia degrees in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving radiotherapy. The imaging of bilateral parotid glands in NPC patients was conducted 2 weeks before radiotherapy (time point 1), one month after radiotherapy (time point 2), and four months after radiotherapy (time point 3). From time point 1 to 2, parotid volume, skewness, and kurtosis decreased ( P < 0.001, = 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively), but all other ADC histogram parameters increased (all P < 0.001, except P = 0.006 for standard deviation [SD]). From time point 2 to 3, parotid volume continued to decrease ( P = 0.022), and SD, 75 th and 90 th percentiles continued to increase ( P = 0.024, 0.010, and 0.006, respectively). Early change rates of parotid ADC mean , ADC min , kurtosis, and 25 th , 50 th , 75 th , 90 th percentiles (from time point 1 to 2) correlated with late parotid atrophy rate (from time point 1 to 3) (all P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed correlations among parotid volume, time point, and ADC histogram parameters. Early mean change rates for bilateral parotid SD and ADC max could predict late xerostomia degrees at seven months after radiotherapy (three months after time point 3) with AUC of 0.781 and 0.818 ( P = 0.014, 0.005, respectively). ADC histogram parameters were reproducible (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.830 - 0.999). ADC histogram analysis could be used to evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage noninvasively, and predict late xerostomia degrees of NPC patients treated with radiotherapy.

On the use of multiple-point statistics to improve groundwater flow modeling in karst aquifers: A case study from the Hydrogeological Experimental Site of Poitiers, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Coz, Mathieu; Bodin, Jacques; Renard, Philippe

2017-02-01

Limestone aquifers often exhibit complex groundwater flow behaviors resulting from depositional heterogeneities and post-lithification fracturing and karstification. In this study, multiple-point statistics (MPS) was applied to reproduce karst features and to improve groundwater flow modeling. For this purpose, MPS realizations were used in a numerical flow model to simulate the responses to pumping test experiments observed at the Hydrogeological Experimental Site of Poitiers, France. The main flow behaviors evident in the field data were simulated, particularly (i) the early-time inflection of the drawdown signal at certain observation wells and (ii) the convex behavior of the drawdown curves at intermediate times. In addition, it was shown that the spatial structure of the karst features at various scales is critical with regard to the propagation of the depletion wave induced by pumping. Indeed, (i) the spatial shape of the cone of depression is significantly affected by the karst proportion in the vicinity of the pumping well, and (ii) early-time inflection of the drawdown signal occurs only at observation wells crossing locally well-developed karst features.

A model-based approach to wildland fire reconstruction using sediment charcoal records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Higuera, Philip E.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Kelly, Ryan; McLachlan, Jason S.

2017-01-01

Lake sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to reconstruct fire history, including the identification of past wildland fires. One challenge of applying sediment charcoal records to infer fire history is the separation of charcoal associated with local fire occurrence and charcoal originating from regional fire activity. Despite a variety of methods to identify local fires from sediment charcoal records, an integrated statistical framework for fire reconstruction is lacking. We develop a Bayesian point process model to estimate the probability of fire associated with charcoal counts from individual-lake sediments and estimate mean fire return intervals. A multivariate extension of the model combines records from multiple lakes to reduce uncertainty in local fire identification and estimate a regional mean fire return interval. The univariate and multivariate models are applied to 13 lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. Both models resulted in similar mean fire return intervals (100–350 years) with reduced uncertainty under the multivariate model due to improved estimation of regional charcoal deposition. The point process model offers an integrated statistical framework for paleofire reconstruction and extends existing methods to infer regional fire history from multiple lake records with uncertainty following directly from posterior distributions.

Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

2015-05-01

The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

Comparing statistical and machine learning classifiers: alternatives for predictive modeling in human factors research.

PubMed

Carnahan, Brian; Meyer, Gérard; Kuntz, Lois-Ann

2003-01-01

Multivariate classification models play an increasingly important role in human factors research. In the past, these models have been based primarily on discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Models developed from machine learning research offer the human factors professional a viable alternative to these traditional statistical classification methods. To illustrate this point, two machine learning approaches--genetic programming and decision tree induction--were used to construct classification models designed to predict whether or not a student truck driver would pass his or her commercial driver license (CDL) examination. The models were developed and validated using the curriculum scores and CDL exam performances of 37 student truck drivers who had completed a 320-hr driver training course. Results indicated that the machine learning classification models were superior to discriminant analysis and logistic regression in terms of predictive accuracy. Actual or potential applications of this research include the creation of models that more accurately predict human performance outcomes.

Predicting Chemically Induced Duodenal Ulcer and Adrenal Necrosis with Classification Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giampaolo, Casimiro; Gray, Andrew T.; Olshen, Richard A.; Szabo, Sandor

1991-07-01

Binary tree-structured statistical classification algorithms and properties of 56 model alkyl nucleophiles were brought to bear on two problems of experimental pharmacology and toxicology. Each rat of a learning sample of 745 was administered one compound and autopsied to determine the presence of duodenal ulcer or adrenal hemorrhagic necrosis. The cited statistical classification schemes were then applied to these outcomes and 67 features of the compounds to ascertain those characteristics that are associated with biologic activity. For predicting duodenal ulceration, dipole moment, melting point, and solubility in octanol are particularly important, while for predicting adrenal necrosis, important features include the number of sulfhydryl groups and double bonds. These methods may constitute inexpensive but powerful ways to screen untested compounds for possible organ-specific toxicity. Mechanisms for the etiology and pathogenesis of the duodenal and adrenal lesions are suggested, as are additional avenues for drug design.

A Statistics-Based Cracking Criterion of Resin-Bonded Silica Sand for Casting Process Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huimin; Lu, Yan; Ripplinger, Keith; Detwiler, Duane; Luo, Alan A.

2017-02-01

Cracking of sand molds/cores can result in many casting defects such as veining. A robust cracking criterion is needed in casting process simulation for predicting/controlling such defects. A cracking probability map, relating to fracture stress and effective volume, was proposed for resin-bonded silica sand based on Weibull statistics. Three-point bending test results of sand samples were used to generate the cracking map and set up a safety line for cracking criterion. Tensile test results confirmed the accuracy of the safety line for cracking prediction. A laboratory casting experiment was designed and carried out to predict cracking of a cup mold during aluminum casting. The stress-strain behavior and the effective volume of the cup molds were calculated using a finite element analysis code ProCAST®. Furthermore, an energy dispersive spectroscopy fractographic examination of the sand samples confirmed the binder cracking in resin-bonded silica sand.

Lagrangian statistics in weakly forced two-dimensional turbulence.

PubMed

Rivera, Michael K; Ecke, Robert E

2016-01-01

Measurements of Lagrangian single-point and multiple-point statistics in a quasi-two-dimensional stratified layer system are reported. The system consists of a layer of salt water over an immiscible layer of Fluorinert and is forced electromagnetically so that mean-squared vorticity is injected at a well-defined spatial scale ri. Simultaneous cascades develop in which enstrophy flows predominately to small scales whereas energy cascades, on average, to larger scales. Lagrangian correlations and one- and two-point displacements are measured for random initial conditions and for initial positions within topological centers and saddles. Some of the behavior of these quantities can be understood in terms of the trapping characteristics of long-lived centers, the slow motion near strong saddles, and the rapid fluctuations outside of either centers or saddles. We also present statistics of Lagrangian velocity fluctuations using energy spectra in frequency space and structure functions in real space. We compare with complementary Eulerian velocity statistics. We find that simultaneous inverse energy and enstrophy ranges present in spectra are not directly echoed in real-space moments of velocity difference. Nevertheless, the spectral ranges line up well with features of moment ratios, indicating that although the moments are not exhibiting unambiguous scaling, the behavior of the probability distribution functions is changing over short ranges of length scales. Implications for understanding weakly forced 2D turbulence with simultaneous inverse and direct cascades are discussed.

Streamflow predictions in Alpine Catchments by using artificial neural networks. Application in the Alto Genil Basin (South Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Pegalajar-Cuellar, Manuel; Pulido-Velazquez, David

2017-04-01

This study explores techniques of modeling water inflow series, focusing on techniques of short-term steamflow prediction. An appropriate estimation of streamflow in advance is necessary to anticipate measures to mitigate the impacts and risks related to drought conditions. This study analyzes the prediction of future streamflow of nineteen subbasins in the Alto-Genil basin in Granada (Southeast of Spain). Some of these basin streamflow have an important component of snowmelt due to part of the system is located in Sierra Nevada Mountain Range, the highest mountain of continental Spain. Streamflow prediction models have been calibrated using time series of historical natural streamflows. The available streamflow measurements have been downloaded from several public data sources. These original data have been preprocessed to turn them to the original natural regime, removing the anthropic effects. The missing values in the adopted horizon period to calibrate the prediction models have been estimated by using a Temez hydrological balance model, approaching the snowmelt processes with a hybrid degree day method. In the experimentation, ARIMA models are used as baseline method, and recurrent neural networks ELMAN and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) to test if the prediction accuracy can be improved. After performing the multiple experiments with these models, non-parametric statistical tests are applied to select the best of these techniques. In the experiments carried out with ARIMA, it is concluded that ARIMA models are not adequate in this case study due to the existence of a nonlinear component that cannot be modeled. Secondly, ELMAN and NAR neural networks with multi-start training is performed with each network structure to deal with the local optimum problem, since in neural network training there is a very strong dependence on the initial weights of the network. The obtained results suggest that both neural networks are efficient for the short term prediction, surpassing the limitations of the ARIMA models and, in general, the experiments showed that NAR networks are the ones with the greatest generalization capability. Therefore, NAR networks are chosen as the starting point for other works, in which we study the streamflow predictions incorporating exogenous variables (as the Snow Cover Area), the sensitivity of the prediction to the initial conditions, multivariate streamflow predictions considering the spatial correlation between the sub-basins streamflow and the synthetic generations to assess droughts statistic. This research has been partially supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

External validation of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk prediction tool in older community-dwelling people attending general practice: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wallace, Emma; McDowell, Ronald; Bennett, Kathleen; Fahey, Tom; Smith, Susan M

2016-11-14

Emergency admission is associated with the potential for adverse events in older people and risk prediction models are available to identify those at highest risk of admission. The aim of this study was to externally validate and compare the performance of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk model and a modified version (incorporating a multimorbidity measure) in predicting emergency admission in older community-dwelling people. 15 general practices (GPs) in the Republic of Ireland. n=862, ≥70 years, community-dwelling people prospectively followed up for 2 years (2010-2012). Pra risk model (original and modified) calculated for baseline year where ≥0.5 denoted high risk (patient questionnaire, GP medical record review) of future emergency admission. Emergency admission over 1 year (GP medical record review). descriptive statistics, model discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). Of 862 patients, a total of 154 (18%) had ≥1 emergency admission(s) in the follow-up year. 63 patients (7%) were classified as high risk by the original Pra and of these 26 (41%) were admitted. The modified Pra classified 391 (45%) patients as high risk and 103 (26%) were subsequently admitted. Both models demonstrated only poor discrimination (original Pra: c-statistic 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.70); modified Pra: c-statistic 0.67 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.72)). When categorised according to risk-category model, specificity was highest for the original Pra at cut-point of ≥0.5 denoting high risk (95%), and for the modified Pra at cut-point of ≥0.7 (95%). Both models overestimated the number of admissions across all risk strata. While the original Pra model demonstrated poor discrimination, model specificity was high and a small number of patients identified as high risk. Future validation studies should examine higher cut-points denoting high risk for the modified Pra, which has practical advantages in terms of application in GP. The original Pra tool may have a role in identifying higher-risk community-dwelling older people for inclusion in future trials aiming to reduce emergency admissions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India.

PubMed

Das, Anirban; Trehan, Amita; Oberoi, Sapna; Bansal, Deepak

2017-06-01

The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification. Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort. Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R 2 = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort. An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Thermodynamic equilibrium solubility measurements in simulated fluids by 96-well plate method in early drug discovery.

PubMed

Bharate, Sonali S; Vishwakarma, Ram A

2015-04-01

An early prediction of solubility in physiological media (PBS, SGF and SIF) is useful to predict qualitatively bioavailability and absorption of lead candidates. Despite of the availability of multiple solubility estimation methods, none of the reported method involves simplified fixed protocol for diverse set of compounds. Therefore, a simple and medium-throughput solubility estimation protocol is highly desirable during lead optimization stage. The present work introduces a rapid method for assessment of thermodynamic equilibrium solubility of compounds in aqueous media using 96-well microplate. The developed protocol is straightforward to set up and takes advantage of the sensitivity of UV spectroscopy. The compound, in stock solution in methanol, is introduced in microgram quantities into microplate wells followed by drying at an ambient temperature. Microplates were shaken upon addition of test media and the supernatant was analyzed by UV method. A plot of absorbance versus concentration of a sample provides saturation point, which is thermodynamic equilibrium solubility of a sample. The established protocol was validated using a large panel of commercially available drugs and with conventional miniaturized shake flask method (r(2)>0.84). Additionally, the statistically significant QSPR models were established using experimental solubility values of 52 compounds. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Image Processing, Coding, and Compression with Multiple-Point Impulse Response Functions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stossel, Bryan Joseph

1995-01-01

Aspects of image processing, coding, and compression with multiple-point impulse response functions are investigated. Topics considered include characterization of the corresponding random-walk transfer function, image recovery for images degraded by the multiple-point impulse response, and the application of the blur function to image coding and compression. It is found that although the zeros of the real and imaginary parts of the random-walk transfer function occur in continuous, closed contours, the zeros of the transfer function occur at isolated spatial frequencies. Theoretical calculations of the average number of zeros per area are in excellent agreement with experimental results obtained from computer counts of the zeros. The average number of zeros per area is proportional to the standard deviations of the real part of the transfer function as well as the first partial derivatives. Statistical parameters of the transfer function are calculated including the mean, variance, and correlation functions for the real and imaginary parts of the transfer function and their corresponding first partial derivatives. These calculations verify the assumptions required in the derivation of the expression for the average number of zeros. Interesting results are found for the correlations of the real and imaginary parts of the transfer function and their first partial derivatives. The isolated nature of the zeros in the transfer function and its characteristics at high spatial frequencies result in largely reduced reconstruction artifacts and excellent reconstructions are obtained for distributions of impulses consisting of 25 to 150 impulses. The multiple-point impulse response obscures original scenes beyond recognition. This property is important for secure transmission of data on many communication systems. The multiple-point impulse response enables the decoding and restoration of the original scene with very little distortion. Images prefiltered by the random-walk transfer function yield greater compression ratios than are obtained for the original scene. The multiple-point impulse response decreases the bit rate approximately 40-70% and affords near distortion-free reconstructions. Due to the lossy nature of transform-based compression algorithms, noise reduction measures must be incorporated to yield acceptable reconstructions after decompression.

Imaging diagnostics in ovarian cancer: magnetic resonance imaging and a scoring system guiding choice of primary treatment.

PubMed

Kasper, Sigrid M; Dueholm, Margit; Marinovskij, Edvard; Blaakær, Jan

2017-03-01

To analyze the ability of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and systematic evaluation at surgery to predict optimal cytoreduction in primary advanced ovarian cancer and to develop a preoperative scoring system for cancer staging. Preoperative MRI and standard laparotomy were performed in 99 women with either ovarian or primary peritoneal cancer. Using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of a systematic description of the tumor in nine abdominal compartments obtained by MRI and during surgery plus clinical parameters, a scoring system was designed that predicted non-optimal cytoreduction. Non-optimal cytoreduction at operation was predicted by the following: (A) presence of comorbidities group 3 or 4 (ASA); (B) tumor presence in multiple numbers of different compartments, and (C) numbers of specified sites of organ involvement. The score includes: number of compartments involved (1-9 points), >1 subdiaphragmal location with presence of tumor (1 point); deep organ involvement of liver (1 point), porta hepatis (1 point), spleen (1 point), mesentery/vessel (1 point), cecum/ileocecal (1 point), rectum/vessels (1 point): ASA groups 3 and 4 (2 points). Use of the scoring system based on operative findings gave an area under the curve (AUC) of 91% (85-98%) for patients in whom optimal cytoreduction could not be achieved. The score AUC obtained by MRI was 84% (76-92%), and 43% of non-optimal cytoreduction patients were identified, with only 8% of potentially operable patients being falsely evaluated as suitable for non-optimal cytoreduction at the most optimal cut-off value. Tumor in individual locations did not predict operability. This systematic scoring system based on operative findings and MRI may predict non-optimal cytoreduction. MRI is able to assess ovarian cancer with peritoneal carcinomatosis with satisfactory concordance with laparotomic findings. This scoring system could be useful as a clinical guideline and should be evaluated and developed further in larger studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The large-scale correlations of multicell densities and profiles: implications for cosmic variance estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codis, Sandrine; Bernardeau, Francis; Pichon, Christophe

2016-08-01

In order to quantify the error budget in the measured probability distribution functions of cell densities, the two-point statistics of cosmic densities in concentric spheres is investigated. Bias functions are introduced as the ratio of their two-point correlation function to the two-point correlation of the underlying dark matter distribution. They describe how cell densities are spatially correlated. They are computed here via the so-called large deviation principle in the quasi-linear regime. Their large-separation limit is presented and successfully compared to simulations for density and density slopes: this regime is shown to be rapidly reached allowing to get sub-percent precision for a wide range of densities and variances. The corresponding asymptotic limit provides an estimate of the cosmic variance of standard concentric cell statistics applied to finite surveys. More generally, no assumption on the separation is required for some specific moments of the two-point statistics, for instance when predicting the generating function of cumulants containing any powers of concentric densities in one location and one power of density at some arbitrary distance from the rest. This exact `one external leg' cumulant generating function is used in particular to probe the rate of convergence of the large-separation approximation.

Backward deletion to minimize prediction errors in models from factorial experiments with zero to six center points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1980-01-01

Population model coefficients were chosen to simulate a saturated 2 to the 4th fixed-effects experiment having an unfavorable distribution of relative values. Using random number studies, deletion strategies were compared that were based on the F-distribution, on an order statistics distribution of Cochran's, and on a combination of the two. The strategies were compared under the criterion of minimizing the maximum prediction error, wherever it occurred, among the two-level factorial points. The strategies were evaluated for each of the conditions of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 center points. Three classes of strategies were identified as being appropriate, depending on the extent of the experimenter's prior knowledge. In almost every case the best strategy was found to be unique according to the number of center points. Among the three classes of strategies, a security regret class of strategy was demonstrated as being widely useful in that over a range of coefficients of variation from 4 to 65%, the maximum predictive error was never increased by more than 12% over what it would have been if the best strategy had been used for the particular coefficient of variation. The relative efficiency of the experiment, when using the security regret strategy, was examined as a function of the number of center points, and was found to be best when the design used one center point.

At Wake Forest U., Admissions Has Become "More Art than Science"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoover, Eric

2009-01-01

The admissions process is awash in numbers. Students accumulate grade-point averages and test scores. Colleges use statistical models to predict enrollment outcomes, and they tout their place in commercial rankings. In many ways, numbers simplify this complex enterprise. However, they have come to carry undue weight, says Martha Blevins Allman,…

A Structural Equation Model for Predicting Business Student Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pomykalski, James J.; Dion, Paul; Brock, James L.

2008-01-01

In this study, the authors developed a structural equation model that accounted for 79% of the variability of a student's final grade point average by using a sample size of 147 students. The model is based on student grades in 4 foundational business courses: introduction to business, macroeconomics, statistics, and using databases. Educators and…

A clinical study of electrophysiological correlates of behavioural comfort levels in cochlear implantees.

PubMed

Raghunandhan, S; Ravikumar, A; Kameswaran, Mohan; Mandke, Kalyani; Ranjith, R

2014-05-01

Indications for cochlear implantation have expanded today to include very young children and those with syndromes/multiple handicaps. Programming the implant based on behavioural responses may be tedious for audiologists in such cases, wherein matching an effective Measurable Auditory Percept (MAP) and appropriate MAP becomes the key issue in the habilitation program. In 'Difficult to MAP' scenarios, objective measures become paramount to predict optimal current levels to be set in the MAP. We aimed to (a) study the trends in multi-modal electrophysiological tests and behavioural responses sequentially over the first year of implant use; (b) generate normative data from the above; (c) correlate the multi-modal electrophysiological thresholds levels with behavioural comfort levels; and (d) create predictive formulae for deriving optimal comfort levels (if unknown), using linear and multiple regression analysis. This prospective study included 10 profoundly hearing impaired children aged between 2 and 7 years with normal inner ear anatomy and no additional handicaps. They received the Advanced Bionics HiRes 90 K Implant with Harmony Speech processor and used HiRes-P with Fidelity 120 strategy. They underwent, impedance telemetry, neural response imaging, electrically evoked stapedial response telemetry (ESRT), and electrically evoked auditory brainstem response (EABR) tests at 1, 4, 8, and 12 months of implant use, in conjunction with behavioural mapping. Trends in electrophysiological and behavioural responses were analyzed using paired t-test. By Karl Pearson's correlation method, electrode-wise correlations were derived for neural response imaging (NRI) thresholds versus most comfortable level (M-levels) and offset based (apical, mid-array, and basal array) correlations for EABR and ESRT thresholds versus M-levels were calculated over time. These were used to derive predictive formulae by linear and multiple regression analysis. Such statistically predicted M-levels were compared with the behaviourally recorded M-levels among the cohort, using Cronbach's alpha reliability test method for confirming the efficacy of this method. NRI, ESRT, and EABR thresholds showed statistically significant positive correlations with behavioural M-levels, which improved with implant use over time. These correlations were used to derive predicted M-levels using regression analysis. On an average, predicted M-levels were found to be statistically reliable and they were a fair match to the actual behavioural M-levels. When applied in clinical practice, the predicted values were found to be useful for programming members of the study group. However, individuals showed considerable deviations in behavioural M-levels, above and below the electrophysiologically predicted values, due to various factors. While the current method appears helpful as a reference to predict initial maps in 'difficult to Map' subjects, it is recommended that behavioural measures are mandatory to further optimize the maps for these individuals. The study explores the trends, correlations and individual variabilities that occur between electrophysiological tests and behavioural responses, recorded over time among a cohort of cochlear implantees. The statistical method shown may be used as a guideline to predict optimal behavioural levels in difficult situations among future implantees, bearing in mind that optimal M-levels for individuals can vary from predicted values. In 'Difficult to MAP' scenarios, following a protocol of sequential behavioural programming, in conjunction with electrophysiological correlates will provide the best outcomes.

A stochastic-geometric model of soil variation in Pleistocene patterned ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lark, Murray; Meerschman, Eef; Van Meirvenne, Marc

2013-04-01

In this paper we examine the spatial variability of soil in parent material with complex spatial structure which arises from complex non-linear geomorphic processes. We show that this variability can be better-modelled by a stochastic-geometric model than by a standard Gaussian random field. The benefits of the new model are seen in the reproduction of features of the target variable which influence processes like water movement and pollutant dispersal. Complex non-linear processes in the soil give rise to properties with non-Gaussian distributions. Even under a transformation to approximate marginal normality, such variables may have a more complex spatial structure than the Gaussian random field model of geostatistics can accommodate. In particular the extent to which extreme values of the variable are connected in spatially coherent regions may be misrepresented. As a result, for example, geostatistical simulation generally fails to reproduce the pathways for preferential flow in an environment where coarse infill of former fluvial channels or coarse alluvium of braided streams creates pathways for rapid movement of water. Multiple point geostatistics has been developed to deal with this problem. Multiple point methods proceed by sampling from a set of training images which can be assumed to reproduce the non-Gaussian behaviour of the target variable. The challenge is to identify appropriate sources of such images. In this paper we consider a mode of soil variation in which the soil varies continuously, exhibiting short-range lateral trends induced by local effects of the factors of soil formation which vary across the region of interest in an unpredictable way. The trends in soil variation are therefore only apparent locally, and the soil variation at regional scale appears random. We propose a stochastic-geometric model for this mode of soil variation called the Continuous Local Trend (CLT) model. We consider a case study of soil formed in relict patterned ground with pronounced lateral textural variations arising from the presence of infilled ice-wedges of Pleistocene origin. We show how knowledge of the pedogenetic processes in this environment, along with some simple descriptive statistics, can be used to select and fit a CLT model for the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) of the soil. We use the model to simulate realizations of the CLT process, and compare these with realizations of a fitted Gaussian random field. We show how statistics that summarize the spatial coherence of regions with small values of ECa, which are expected to have coarse texture and so larger saturated hydraulic conductivity, are better reproduced by the CLT model than by the Gaussian random field. This suggests that the CLT model could be used to generate an unlimited supply of training images to allow multiple point geostatistical simulation or prediction of this or similar variables.

Statistical crystallography of surface micelle spacing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noever, David A.

1992-01-01

The aggregation of the recently reported surface micelles of block polyelectrolytes is analyzed using techniques of statistical crystallography. A polygonal lattice (Voronoi mosaic) connects center-to-center points, yielding statistical agreement with crystallographic predictions; Aboav-Weaire's law and Lewis's law are verified. This protocol supplements the standard analysis of surface micelles leading to aggregation number determination and, when compared to numerical simulations, allows further insight into the random partitioning of surface films. In particular, agreement with Lewis's law has been linked to the geometric packing requirements of filling two-dimensional space which compete with (or balance) physical forces such as interfacial tension, electrostatic repulsion, and van der Waals attraction.

Integrating statistical and clinical research elements in intervention-related grant applications: summary from an NIMH workshop.

PubMed

Sherrill, Joel T; Sommers, David I; Nierenberg, Andrew A; Leon, Andrew C; Arndt, Stephan; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Greenhouse, Joel; Guthrie, Donald; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Phillips, Katharine A; Shear, M Katherine; Woolson, Robert

2009-01-01

The authors summarize points for consideration generated in a National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) workshop convened to provide an opportunity for reviewers from different disciplines-specifically clinical researchers and statisticians-to discuss how their differing and complementary expertise can be well integrated in the review of intervention-related grant applications. A 1-day workshop was convened in October, 2004. The workshop featured panel presentations on key topics followed by interactive discussion. This article summarizes the workshop and subsequent discussions, which centered on topics including weighting the statistics/data analysis elements of an application in the assessment of the application's overall merit; the level of statistical sophistication appropriate to different stages of research and for different funding mechanisms; some key considerations in the design and analysis portions of applications; appropriate statistical methods for addressing essential questions posed by an application; and the role of the statistician in the application's development, study conduct, and interpretation and dissemination of results. A number of key elements crucial to the construction and review of grant applications were identified. It was acknowledged that intervention-related studies unavoidably involve trade-offs. Reviewers are helped when applications acknowledge such trade-offs and provide good rationale for their choices. Clear linkage among the design, aims, hypotheses, and data analysis plan and avoidance of disconnections among these elements also strengthens applications. The authors identify multiple points to consider when constructing intervention-related grant applications. The points are presented here as questions and do not reflect institute policy or comprise a list of best practices, but rather represent points for consideration.

Academic Admission Requirements as Predictors of Counseling Knowledge, Personal Development, and Counseling Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smaby, Marlowe H.; Maddux, Cleborne D.; Richmond, Aaron S.; Lepkowski, William J.; Packman, Jill

2005-01-01

The authors investigated whether undergraduates' scores on the Verbal and Quantitative tests of the Graduate Record Examinations and their undergraduate grade point average can be used to predict knowledge, personal development, and skills of graduates of counseling programs. Multiple regression analysis produced significant models predicting…

Forecasting influenza in Hong Kong with Google search queries and statistical model fusion.

PubMed

Xu, Qinneng; Gel, Yulia R; Ramirez Ramirez, L Leticia; Nezafati, Kusha; Zhang, Qingpeng; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate predictive utility of online social media and web search queries, particularly, Google search data, to forecast new cases of influenza-like-illness (ILI) in general outpatient clinics (GOPC) in Hong Kong. To mitigate the impact of sensitivity to self-excitement (i.e., fickle media interest) and other artifacts of online social media data, in our approach we fuse multiple offline and online data sources. Four individual models: generalized linear model (GLM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and deep learning (DL) with Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) are employed to forecast ILI-GOPC both one week and two weeks in advance. The covariates include Google search queries, meteorological data, and previously recorded offline ILI. To our knowledge, this is the first study that introduces deep learning methodology into surveillance of infectious diseases and investigates its predictive utility. Furthermore, to exploit the strength from each individual forecasting models, we use statistical model fusion, using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which allows a systematic integration of multiple forecast scenarios. For each model, an adaptive approach is used to capture the recent relationship between ILI and covariates. DL with FNN appears to deliver the most competitive predictive performance among the four considered individual models. Combing all four models in a comprehensive BMA framework allows to further improve such predictive evaluation metrics as root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute predictive error (MAPE). Nevertheless, DL with FNN remains the preferred method for predicting locations of influenza peaks. The proposed approach can be viewed a feasible alternative to forecast ILI in Hong Kong or other countries where ILI has no constant seasonal trend and influenza data resources are limited. The proposed methodology is easily tractable and computationally efficient.

TH-CD-207A-07: Prediction of High Dimensional State Subject to Respiratory Motion: A Manifold Learning Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, W; Sawant, A; Ruan, D

Purpose: The development of high dimensional imaging systems (e.g. volumetric MRI, CBCT, photogrammetry systems) in image-guided radiotherapy provides important pathways to the ultimate goal of real-time volumetric/surface motion monitoring. This study aims to develop a prediction method for the high dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. Compared to conventional linear dimension reduction based approaches, our method utilizes manifold learning to construct a descriptive feature submanifold, where more efficient and accurate prediction can be performed. Methods: We developed a prediction framework for high-dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. The proposed method performs dimension reduction in a nonlinear setting to permit moremore » descriptive features compared to its linear counterparts (e.g., classic PCA). Specifically, a kernel PCA is used to construct a proper low-dimensional feature manifold, where low-dimensional prediction is performed. A fixed-point iterative pre-image estimation method is applied subsequently to recover the predicted value in the original state space. We evaluated and compared the proposed method with PCA-based method on 200 level-set surfaces reconstructed from surface point clouds captured by the VisionRT system. The prediction accuracy was evaluated with respect to root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) for both 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths. Results: The proposed method outperformed PCA-based approach with statistically higher prediction accuracy. In one-dimensional feature subspace, our method achieved mean prediction accuracy of 0.86mm and 0.89mm for 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths respectively, compared to 0.95mm and 1.04mm from PCA-based method. The paired t-tests further demonstrated the statistical significance of the superiority of our method, with p-values of 6.33e-3 and 5.78e-5, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed approach benefits from the descriptiveness of a nonlinear manifold and the prediction reliability in such low dimensional manifold. The fixed-point iterative approach turns out to work well practically for the pre-image recovery. Our approach is particularly suitable to facilitate managing respiratory motion in image-guide radiotherapy. This work is supported in part by NIH grant R01 CA169102-02.« less

The learning curve of robot-assisted radical cystectomy: results from the International Robotic Cystectomy Consortium.

PubMed

Hayn, Matthew H; Hussain, Abid; Mansour, Ahmed M; Andrews, Paul E; Carpentier, Paul; Castle, Erik; Dasgupta, Prokar; Rimington, Peter; Thomas, Raju; Khan, Shamim; Kibel, Adam; Kim, Hyung; Manoharan, Murugesan; Menon, Mani; Mottrie, Alex; Ornstein, David; Peabody, James; Pruthi, Raj; Palou Redorta, Joan; Richstone, Lee; Schanne, Francis; Stricker, Hans; Wiklund, Peter; Chandrasekhar, Rameela; Wilding, Greg E; Guru, Khurshid A

2010-08-01

Robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) has evolved as a minimally invasive alternative to open radical cystectomy for patients with invasive bladder cancer. We sought to define the learning curve for RARC by evaluating results from a multicenter, contemporary, consecutive series of patients who underwent this procedure. Utilizing the International Robotic Cystectomy Consortium database, a prospectively maintained and institutional review board-approved database, we identified 496 patients who underwent RARC by 21 surgeons at 14 institutions from 2003 to 2009. Cut-off points for operative time, lymph node yield (LNY), estimated blood loss (EBL), and margin positivity were identified. Using specifically designed statistical mixed models, we were able to inversely predict the number of patients required for an institution to reach the predetermined cut-off points. Mean operative time was 386 min, mean EBL was 408 ml, and mean LNY was 18. Overall, 34 of 482 patients (7%) had a positive surgical margin (PSM). Using statistical models, it was estimated that 21 patients were required for operative time to reach 6.5h and 8, 20, and 30 patients were required to reach an LNY of 12, 16, and 20, respectively. For all patients, PSM rates of <5% were achieved after 30 patients. For patients with pathologic stage higher than T2, PSM rates of <15% were achieved after 24 patients. RARC is a challenging procedure but is a technique that is reproducible throughout multiple centers. This report helps to define the learning curve for RARC and demonstrates an acceptable level of proficiency by the 30th case for proxy measures of RARC quality. Copyright (c) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method to estimate the contribution of regional genetic associations to complex traits from summary association statistics.

PubMed

Pare, Guillaume; Mao, Shihong; Deng, Wei Q

2016-06-08

Despite considerable efforts, known genetic associations only explain a small fraction of predicted heritability. Regional associations combine information from multiple contiguous genetic variants and can improve variance explained at established association loci. However, regional associations are not easily amenable to estimation using summary association statistics because of sensitivity to linkage disequilibrium (LD). We now propose a novel method, LD Adjusted Regional Genetic Variance (LARGV), to estimate phenotypic variance explained by regional associations using summary statistics while accounting for LD. Our method is asymptotically equivalent to a multiple linear regression model when no interaction or haplotype effects are present. It has several applications, such as ranking of genetic regions according to variance explained or comparison of variance explained by two or more regions. Using height and BMI data from the Health Retirement Study (N = 7,776), we show that most genetic variance lies in a small proportion of the genome and that previously identified linkage peaks have higher than expected regional variance.

A method to estimate the contribution of regional genetic associations to complex traits from summary association statistics

PubMed Central

Pare, Guillaume; Mao, Shihong; Deng, Wei Q.

2016-01-01

Despite considerable efforts, known genetic associations only explain a small fraction of predicted heritability. Regional associations combine information from multiple contiguous genetic variants and can improve variance explained at established association loci. However, regional associations are not easily amenable to estimation using summary association statistics because of sensitivity to linkage disequilibrium (LD). We now propose a novel method, LD Adjusted Regional Genetic Variance (LARGV), to estimate phenotypic variance explained by regional associations using summary statistics while accounting for LD. Our method is asymptotically equivalent to a multiple linear regression model when no interaction or haplotype effects are present. It has several applications, such as ranking of genetic regions according to variance explained or comparison of variance explained by two or more regions. Using height and BMI data from the Health Retirement Study (N = 7,776), we show that most genetic variance lies in a small proportion of the genome and that previously identified linkage peaks have higher than expected regional variance. PMID:27273519

University and student segmentation: multilevel latent-class analysis of students' attitudes towards research methods and statistics.

PubMed

Mutz, Rüdiger; Daniel, Hans-Dieter

2013-06-01

It is often claimed that psychology students' attitudes towards research methods and statistics affect course enrollment, persistence, achievement, and course climate. However, the inter-institutional variability has been widely neglected in the research on students' attitudes towards research methods and statistics, but it is important for didactic purposes (heterogeneity of the student population). The paper presents a scale based on findings of the social psychology of attitudes (polar and emotion-based concept) in conjunction with a method for capturing beginning university students' attitudes towards research methods and statistics and identifying the proportion of students having positive attitudes at the institutional level. The study based on a re-analysis of a nationwide survey in Germany in August 2000 of all psychology students that enrolled in fall 1999/2000 (N= 1,490) and N= 44 universities. Using multilevel latent-class analysis (MLLCA), the aim was to group students in different student attitude types and at the same time to obtain university segments based on the incidences of the different student attitude types. Four student latent clusters were found that can be ranked on a bipolar attitude dimension. Membership in a cluster was predicted by age, grade point average (GPA) on school-leaving exam, and personality traits. In addition, two university segments were found: universities with an average proportion of students with positive attitudes and universities with a high proportion of students with positive attitudes (excellent segment). As psychology students make up a very heterogeneous group, the use of multiple learning activities as opposed to the classical lecture course is required. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

Thermodynamics and proton activities of protic ionic liquids with quantum cluster equilibrium theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingenmey, Johannes; von Domaros, Michael; Perlt, Eva; Verevkin, Sergey P.; Kirchner, Barbara

2018-05-01

We applied the binary Quantum Cluster Equilibrium (bQCE) method to a number of alkylammonium-based protic ionic liquids in order to predict boiling points, vaporization enthalpies, and proton activities. The theory combines statistical thermodynamics of van-der-Waals-type clusters with ab initio quantum chemistry and yields the partition functions (and associated thermodynamic potentials) of binary mixtures over a wide range of thermodynamic phase points. Unlike conventional cluster approaches that are limited to the prediction of thermodynamic properties, dissociation reactions can be effortlessly included into the bQCE formalism, giving access to ionicities, as well. The method is open to quantum chemical methods at any level of theory, but combination with low-cost composite density functional theory methods and the proposed systematic approach to generate cluster sets provides a computationally inexpensive and mostly parameter-free way to predict such properties at good-to-excellent accuracy. Boiling points can be predicted within an accuracy of 50 K, reaching excellent accuracy for ethylammonium nitrate. Vaporization enthalpies are predicted within an accuracy of 20 kJ mol-1 and can be systematically interpreted on a molecular level. We present the first theoretical approach to predict proton activities in protic ionic liquids, with results fitting well into the experimentally observed correlation. Furthermore, enthalpies of vaporization were measured experimentally for some alkylammonium nitrates and an excellent linear correlation with vaporization enthalpies of their respective parent amines is observed.

The Effect of Attending Tutoring on Course Grades in Calculus I

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rickard, Brian; Mills, Melissa

2018-01-01

Tutoring centres are common in universities in the United States, but there are few published studies that statistically examine the effects of tutoring on student success. This study utilizes multiple regression analysis to model the effect of tutoring attendance on final course grades in Calculus I. Our model predicted that every three visits to…

A New Sample Size Formula for Regression.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Gordon P.; Barcikowski, Robert S.

The focus of this research was to determine the efficacy of a new method of selecting sample sizes for multiple linear regression. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to study both empirical predictive power rates and empirical statistical power rates of the new method and seven other methods: those of C. N. Park and A. L. Dudycha (1974); J. Cohen…

Predicting fatty acid profiles in blood based on food intake and the FADS1 rs174546 SNP.

PubMed

Hallmann, Jacqueline; Kolossa, Silvia; Gedrich, Kurt; Celis-Morales, Carlos; Forster, Hannah; O'Donovan, Clare B; Woolhead, Clara; Macready, Anna L; Fallaize, Rosalind; Marsaux, Cyril F M; Lambrinou, Christina-Paulina; Mavrogianni, Christina; Moschonis, George; Navas-Carretero, Santiago; San-Cristobal, Rodrigo; Godlewska, Magdalena; Surwiłło, Agnieszka; Mathers, John C; Gibney, Eileen R; Brennan, Lorraine; Walsh, Marianne C; Lovegrove, Julie A; Saris, Wim H M; Manios, Yannis; Martinez, Jose Alfredo; Traczyk, Iwona; Gibney, Michael J; Daniel, Hannelore

2015-12-01

A high intake of n-3 PUFA provides health benefits via changes in the n-6/n-3 ratio in blood. In addition to such dietary PUFAs, variants in the fatty acid desaturase 1 (FADS1) gene are also associated with altered PUFA profiles. We used mathematical modeling to predict levels of PUFA in whole blood, based on multiple hypothesis testing and bootstrapped LASSO selected food items, anthropometric and lifestyle factors, and the rs174546 genotypes in FADS1 from 1607 participants (Food4Me Study). The models were developed using data from the first reported time point (training set) and their predictive power was evaluated using data from the last reported time point (test set). Among other food items, fish, pizza, chicken, and cereals were identified as being associated with the PUFA profiles. Using these food items and the rs174546 genotypes as predictors, models explained 26-43% of the variability in PUFA concentrations in the training set and 22-33% in the test set. Selecting food items using multiple hypothesis testing is a valuable contribution to determine predictors, as our models' predictive power is higher compared to analogue studies. As unique feature, we additionally confirmed our models' power based on a test set. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Integrating non-colocated well and geophysical data to capture subsurface heterogeneity at an aquifer recharge and recovery site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschalk, Ian P.; Hermans, Thomas; Knight, Rosemary; Caers, Jef; Cameron, David A.; Regnery, Julia; McCray, John E.

2017-12-01

Geophysical data have proven to be very useful for lithological characterization. However, quantitatively integrating the information gained from acquiring geophysical data generally requires colocated lithological and geophysical data for constructing a rock-physics relationship. In this contribution, the issue of integrating noncolocated geophysical and lithological data is addressed, and the results are applied to simulate groundwater flow in a heterogeneous aquifer in the Prairie Waters Project North Campus aquifer recharge site, Colorado. Two methods of constructing a rock-physics transform between electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data and lithology measurements are assessed. In the first approach, a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to fit a bimodal lognormal distribution to horizontal crosssections of the ERT resistivity histogram. In the second approach, a spatial bootstrap is applied to approximate the rock-physics relationship. The rock-physics transforms provide soft data for multiple point statistics (MPS) simulations. Subsurface models are used to run groundwater flow and tracer test simulations. Each model's uncalibrated, predicted breakthrough time is evaluated based on its agreement with measured subsurface travel time values from infiltration basins to selected groundwater recovery wells. We find that incorporating geophysical information into uncalibrated flow models reduces the difference with observed values, as compared to flow models without geophysical information incorporated. The integration of geophysical data also narrows the variance of predicted tracer breakthrough times substantially. Accuracy is highest and variance is lowest in breakthrough predictions generated by the MLE-based rock-physics transform. Calibrating the ensemble of geophysically constrained models would help produce a suite of realistic flow models for predictive purposes at the site. We find that the success of breakthrough predictions is highly sensitive to the definition of the rock-physics transform; it is therefore important to model this transfer function accurately.

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

2018-01-01

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID:29780977

Impacts of education level and employment status on health-related quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients.

PubMed

Šabanagić-Hajrić, Selma; Alajbegović, Azra

2015-02-01

To evaluate the impacts of education level and employment status on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in multiple sclerosis patients. This study included 100 multiple sclerosis patients treated at the Department of Neurology, Clinical Center of the University of Sarajevo. Inclusion criteria were the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score between 1.0 and 6.5, age between 18 and 65 years, stable disease on enrollment. Quality of life (QoL) was evaluated by the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 questionnaire (MSQoL-54). Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for comparisons. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate prediction value of educational level and employment status in predicting MSQOL-54 physical and mental composite scores. Full employment status had positive impact on physical health (54.85 vs. 37.90; p les than 0.001) and mental health (59.55 vs. 45.90; p les than 0.001) composite scores. Employment status retained its independent predictability for both physical (r(2)=0.105) and mental (r(2)=0.076) composite scores in linear regression analysis. Patients with college degree had slightly higher median value of physical (49.36 vs. 45.30) and mental health composite score (66.74 vs. 55.62) comparing to others, without statistically significant difference. Employment proved to be an important factor in predicting quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients. Higher education level may determine better QOL but without significant predictive value. Sustained employment and development of vocational rehabilitation programs for MS patients living in the country with high unemployment level is an important factor in improving both physical and mental health outcomes in MS patients.

Statistical mechanical model of coupled transcription from multiple promoters due to transcription factor titration

PubMed Central

Rydenfelt, Mattias; Cox, Robert Sidney; Garcia, Hernan; Phillips, Rob

2014-01-01

Transcription factors (TFs) with regulatory action at multiple promoter targets is the rule rather than the exception, with examples ranging from the cAMP receptor protein (CRP) in E. coli that regulates hundreds of different genes simultaneously to situations involving multiple copies of the same gene, such as plasmids, retrotransposons, or highly replicated viral DNA. When the number of TFs heavily exceeds the number of binding sites, TF binding to each promoter can be regarded as independent. However, when the number of TF molecules is comparable to the number of binding sites, TF titration will result in correlation (“promoter entanglement”) between transcription of different genes. We develop a statistical mechanical model which takes the TF titration effect into account and use it to predict both the level of gene expression for a general set of promoters and the resulting correlation in transcription rates of different genes. Our results show that the TF titration effect could be important for understanding gene expression in many regulatory settings. PMID:24580252

Tracking Multiple Statistics: Simultaneous Learning of Object Names and Categories in English and Mandarin Speakers.

PubMed

Chen, Chi-Hsin; Gershkoff-Stowe, Lisa; Wu, Chih-Yi; Cheung, Hintat; Yu, Chen

2017-08-01

Two experiments were conducted to examine adult learners' ability to extract multiple statistics in simultaneously presented visual and auditory input. Experiment 1 used a cross-situational learning paradigm to test whether English speakers were able to use co-occurrences to learn word-to-object mappings and concurrently form object categories based on the commonalities across training stimuli. Experiment 2 replicated the first experiment and further examined whether speakers of Mandarin, a language in which final syllables of object names are more predictive of category membership than English, were able to learn words and form object categories when trained with the same type of structures. The results indicate that both groups of learners successfully extracted multiple levels of co-occurrence and used them to learn words and object categories simultaneously. However, marked individual differences in performance were also found, suggesting possible interference and competition in processing the two concurrent streams of regularities. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Report on 3 and 4-point correlation statistics in the COBE DMR anisotrophy maps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinshaw, Gary (Principal Investigator); Gorski, Krzystof M.; Banday, Anthony J.; Bennett, Charles L.

1996-01-01

As part of the work performed under NASA contract # NAS5-32648, we have computed the 3-point and 4-point correlation functions of the COBE-DNIR 2-year and 4-year anisotropy maps. The motivation for this study was to search for evidence of non-Gaussian statistical fluctuations in the temperature maps: skewness or asymmetry in the case of the 3-point function, kurtosis in the case of the 4-point function. Such behavior would have very significant implications for our understanding of the processes of galaxy formation, because our current models of galaxy formation predict that non-Gaussian features should not be present in the DMR maps. The results of our work showed that the 3-point correlation function is consistent with zero and that the 4-point function is not a very sensitive probe of non-Gaussian behavior in the COBE-DMR data. Our computation and analysis of 3-point correlations in the 2-year DMR maps was published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, volume 446, page L67, 1995. Our computation and analysis of 3-point correlations in the 4-year DMR maps will be published, together with some additional tests, in the June 10, 1996 issue of the Astrophysical Journal Letters. Copies of both of these papers are attached as an appendix to this report.

Point process models for localization and interdependence of punctate cellular structures.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Majarian, Timothy D; Naik, Armaghan W; Johnson, Gregory R; Murphy, Robert F

2016-07-01

Accurate representations of cellular organization for multiple eukaryotic cell types are required for creating predictive models of dynamic cellular function. To this end, we have previously developed the CellOrganizer platform, an open source system for generative modeling of cellular components from microscopy images. CellOrganizer models capture the inherent heterogeneity in the spatial distribution, size, and quantity of different components among a cell population. Furthermore, CellOrganizer can generate quantitatively realistic synthetic images that reflect the underlying cell population. A current focus of the project is to model the complex, interdependent nature of organelle localization. We built upon previous work on developing multiple non-parametric models of organelles or structures that show punctate patterns. The previous models described the relationships between the subcellular localization of puncta and the positions of cell and nuclear membranes and microtubules. We extend these models to consider the relationship to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), and to consider the relationship between the positions of different puncta of the same type. Our results do not suggest that the punctate patterns we examined are dependent on ER position or inter- and intra-class proximity. With these results, we built classifiers to update previous assignments of proteins to one of 11 patterns in three distinct cell lines. Our generative models demonstrate the ability to construct statistically accurate representations of puncta localization from simple cellular markers in distinct cell types, capturing the complex phenomena of cellular structure interaction with little human input. This protocol represents a novel approach to vesicular protein annotation, a field that is often neglected in high-throughput microscopy. These results suggest that spatial point process models provide useful insight with respect to the spatial dependence between cellular structures. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Seven lessons from manyfield inflation in random potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Mafalda; Frazer, Jonathan; Marsh, M. C. David

2018-01-01

We study inflation in models with many interacting fields subject to randomly generated scalar potentials. We use methods from non-equilibrium random matrix theory to construct the potentials and an adaption of the `transport method' to evolve the two-point correlators during inflation. This construction allows, for the first time, for an explicit study of models with up to 100 interacting fields supporting a period of `approximately saddle-point' inflation. We determine the statistical predictions for observables by generating over 30,000 models with 2–100 fields supporting at least 60 efolds of inflation. These studies lead us to seven lessons: i) Manyfield inflation is not single-field inflation, ii) The larger the number of fields, the simpler and sharper the predictions, iii) Planck compatibility is not rare, but future experiments may rule out this class of models, iv) The smoother the potentials, the sharper the predictions, v) Hyperparameters can transition from stiff to sloppy, vi) Despite tachyons, isocurvature can decay, vii) Eigenvalue repulsion drives the predictions. We conclude that many of the `generic predictions' of single-field inflation can be emergent features of complex inflation models.

Electromagnetic wave scattering from rough terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papa, R. J.; Lennon, J. F.; Taylor, R. L.

1980-09-01

This report presents two aspects of a program designed to calculate electromagnetic scattering from rough terrain: (1) the use of statistical estimation techniques to determine topographic parameters and (2) the results of a single-roughness-scale scattering calculation based on those parameters, including comparison with experimental data. In the statistical part of the present calculation, digitized topographic maps are used to generate data bases for the required scattering cells. The application of estimation theory to the data leads to the specification of statistical parameters for each cell. The estimated parameters are then used in a hypothesis test to decide on a probability density function (PDF) that represents the height distribution in the cell. Initially, the formulation uses a single observation of the multivariate data. A subsequent approach involves multiple observations of the heights on a bivariate basis, and further refinements are being considered. The electromagnetic scattering analysis, the second topic, calculates the amount of specular and diffuse multipath power reaching a monopulse receiver from a pulsed beacon positioned over a rough Earth. The program allows for spatial inhomogeneities and multiple specular reflection points. The analysis of shadowing by the rough surface has been extended to the case where the surface heights are distributed exponentially. The calculated loss of boresight pointing accuracy attributable to diffuse multipath is then compared with the experimental results. The extent of the specular region, the use of localized height variations, and the effect of the azimuthal variation in power pattern are all assessed.

Satellite attitude prediction by multiple time scales method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Y. C.; Ramnath, R.

1975-01-01

An investigation is made of the problem of predicting the attitude of satellites under the influence of external disturbing torques. The attitude dynamics are first expressed in a perturbation formulation which is then solved by the multiple scales approach. The independent variable, time, is extended into new scales, fast, slow, etc., and the integration is carried out separately in the new variables. The theory is applied to two different satellite configurations, rigid body and dual spin, each of which may have an asymmetric mass distribution. The disturbing torques considered are gravity gradient and geomagnetic. Finally, as multiple time scales approach separates slow and fast behaviors of satellite attitude motion, this property is used for the design of an attitude control device. A nutation damping control loop, using the geomagnetic torque for an earth pointing dual spin satellite, is designed in terms of the slow equation.

Predicting permanent and transient protein-protein interfaces.

PubMed

La, David; Kong, Misun; Hoffman, William; Choi, Youn Im; Kihara, Daisuke

2013-05-01

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are involved in diverse functions in a cell. To optimize functional roles of interactions, proteins interact with a spectrum of binding affinities. Interactions are conventionally classified into permanent and transient, where the former denotes tight binding between proteins that result in strong complexes, whereas the latter compose of relatively weak interactions that can dissociate after binding to regulate functional activity at specific time point. Knowing the type of interactions has significant implications for understanding the nature and function of PPIs. In this study, we constructed amino acid substitution models that capture mutation patterns at permanent and transient type of protein interfaces, which were found to be different with statistical significance. Using the substitution models, we developed a novel computational method that predicts permanent and transient protein binding interfaces (PBIs) in protein surfaces. Without knowledge of the interacting partner, the method uses a single query protein structure and a multiple sequence alignment of the sequence family. Using a large dataset of permanent and transient proteins, we show that our method, BindML+, performs very well in protein interface classification. A very high area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.957 was observed when predicted protein binding sites were classified. Remarkably, near prefect accuracy was achieved with an AUC of 0.991 when actual binding sites were classified. The developed method will be also useful for protein design of permanent and transient PBIs. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating replicate time shifts using Gaussian process regression

PubMed Central

Liu, Qiang; Andersen, Bogi; Smyth, Padhraic; Ihler, Alexander

2010-01-01

Motivation: Time-course gene expression datasets provide important insights into dynamic aspects of biological processes, such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle and organ development. In a typical microarray time-course experiment, measurements are obtained at each time point from multiple replicate samples. Accurately recovering the gene expression patterns from experimental observations is made challenging by both measurement noise and variation among replicates' rates of development. Prior work on this topic has focused on inference of expression patterns assuming that the replicate times are synchronized. We develop a statistical approach that simultaneously infers both (i) the underlying (hidden) expression profile for each gene, as well as (ii) the biological time for each individual replicate. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) combined with a probabilistic model that accounts for uncertainty about the biological development time of each replicate. Results: We apply GPR with uncertain measurement times to a microarray dataset of mRNA expression for the hair-growth cycle in mouse back skin, predicting both profile shapes and biological times for each replicate. The predicted time shifts show high consistency with independently obtained morphological estimates of relative development. We also show that the method systematically reduces prediction error on out-of-sample data, significantly reducing the mean squared error in a cross-validation study. Availability: Matlab code for GPR with uncertain time shifts is available at http://sli.ics.uci.edu/Code/GPRTimeshift/ Contact: ihler@ics.uci.edu PMID:20147305

An optimal cut-off point for the calving interval may be used as an indicator of bovine abortions.

PubMed

Bronner, Anne; Morignat, Eric; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier

2015-10-01

The bovine abortion surveillance system in France aims to detect as early as possible any resurgence of bovine brucellosis, a disease of which the country has been declared free since 2005. It relies on the mandatory notification and testing of each aborting cow, but under-reporting is high. This research uses a new and simple approach which considers the calving interval (CI) as a "diagnostic test" to determine optimal cut-off point c and estimate diagnostic performance of the CI to identify aborting cows, and herds with multiple abortions (i.e. three or more aborting cows per calving season). The period between two artificial inseminations (AI) was considered as a "gold standard". During the 2006-2010 calving seasons, the mean optimal CI cut-off point for identifying aborting cows was 691 days for dairy cows and 703 days for beef cows. Depending on the calving season, production type and scale at which c was computed (individual or herd), the average sensitivity of the CI varied from 42.6% to 64.4%; its average specificity from 96.7% to 99.7%; its average positive predictive value from 27.6% to 65.4%; and its average negative predictive value from 98.7% to 99.8%. When applied to the French bovine population as a whole, this indicator identified 2-3% of cows suspected to have aborted, and 10-15% of herds suspected of multiple abortions. The optimal cut-off point and CI performance were consistent over calving seasons. By applying an optimal CI cut-off point to the cattle demographics database, it becomes possible to identify herds with multiple abortions, carry out retrospective investigations to find the cause of these abortions and monitor a posteriori compliance of farmers with their obligation to report abortions for brucellosis surveillance needs. Therefore, the CI could be used as an indicator of abortions to help improve the current mandatory notification surveillance system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of atmospheric turbulence about a simulated block building

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steely, S. L., Jr.

1981-01-01

An array of towers instrumented to measure the three components of wind speed was used to study atmospheric flow about a simulated block building. Two-point spacetime correlations of the longitudinal velocity component were computed along with two-point spatial correlations. These correlations are in good agreement with fundamental concepts of fluid mechanics. The two-point spatial correlations computed directly were compared with correlations predicted by Taylor's hypothesis and excellent agreement was obtained at the higher levels which were out of the building influence. The correlations fall off significantly in the building wake but recover beyond the wake to essentially the same values in the undisturbed, higher regions.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Targeted versus statistical approaches to selecting parameters for modelling sediment provenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laceby, J. Patrick

2017-04-01

One effective field-based approach to modelling sediment provenance is the source fingerprinting technique. Arguably, one of the most important steps for this approach is selecting the appropriate suite of parameters or fingerprints used to model source contributions. Accordingly, approaches to selecting parameters for sediment source fingerprinting will be reviewed. Thereafter, opportunities and limitations of these approaches and some future research directions will be presented. For properties to be effective tracers of sediment, they must discriminate between sources whilst behaving conservatively. Conservative behavior is characterized by constancy in sediment properties, where the properties of sediment sources remain constant, or at the very least, any variation in these properties should occur in a predictable and measurable way. Therefore, properties selected for sediment source fingerprinting should remain constant through sediment detachment, transportation and deposition processes, or vary in a predictable and measurable way. One approach to select conservative properties for sediment source fingerprinting is to identify targeted tracers, such as caesium-137, that provide specific source information (e.g. surface versus subsurface origins). A second approach is to use statistical tests to select an optimal suite of conservative properties capable of modelling sediment provenance. In general, statistical approaches use a combination of a discrimination (e.g. Kruskal Wallis H-test, Mann-Whitney U-test) and parameter selection statistics (e.g. Discriminant Function Analysis or Principle Component Analysis). The challenge is that modelling sediment provenance is often not straightforward and there is increasing debate in the literature surrounding the most appropriate approach to selecting elements for modelling. Moving forward, it would be beneficial if researchers test their results with multiple modelling approaches, artificial mixtures, and multiple lines of evidence to provide secondary support to their initial modelling results. Indeed, element selection can greatly impact modelling results and having multiple lines of evidence will help provide confidence when modelling sediment provenance.

Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees.

PubMed

De Palma, Adriana; Kuhlmann, Michael; Bugter, Rob; Ferrier, Simon; Hoskins, Andrew J; Potts, Simon G; Roberts, Stuart P M; Schweiger, Oliver; Purvis, Andy

2017-12-01

Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity. One Thousand four hundred and forty six sites across Europe. We collated data on bee occurrence and abundance from the published literature and supplemented them with the PREDICTS database. Using Rao's Quadratic Entropy, we assessed how species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of 1,446 bee communities respond to land-use characteristics including land-use class, cropland intensity, human population density and distance to roads. We combined these models with statistically downscaled estimates of land use in 2005 to estimate and map-at a scale of approximately 1 km 2 -the losses in diversity relative to semi-natural/natural baseline (the predicted diversity of an uninhabited grid square, consisting only of semi-natural/natural vegetation). We show that-relative to the predicted local diversity in uninhabited semi-natural/natural habitat-half of all EU27 countries have lost over 10% of their average local species diversity and two-thirds of countries have lost over 5% of their average local functional and phylogenetic diversity. All diversity measures were generally lower in pasture and higher-intensity cropland than in semi-natural/natural vegetation, but facets of diversity showed less consistent responses to human population density. These differences have led to marked spatial mismatches in losses: losses in phylogenetic diversity were in some areas almost 20 percentage points (pp.) more severe than losses in species diversity, but in other areas losses were almost 40 pp. less severe. These results highlight the importance of exploring multiple measures of diversity when prioritizing and evaluating conservation actions, as species-diverse assemblages may be phylogenetically and functionally impoverished, potentially threatening pollination service provision.

Calibrating MODIS aerosol optical depth for predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations via statistical downscaling

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hu, Xuefei; Liu, Yang

2014-01-01

There has been a growing interest in the use of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter). With their broad spatial coverage, satellite data can increase the spatial–temporal availability of air quality data beyond ground monitoring measurements and potentially improve exposure assessment for population-based health studies. This paper describes a statistical downscaling approach that brings together (1) recent advances in PM2.5 land use regression models utilizing AOD and (2) statistical data fusion techniques for combining air quality data sets that have different spatial resolutions. Statistical downscaling assumes the associations between AOD and PM2.5 concentrations to be spatially and temporally dependent and offers two key advantages. First, it enables us to use gridded AOD data to predict PM2.5 concentrations at spatial point locations. Second, the unified hierarchical framework provides straightforward uncertainty quantification in the predicted PM2.5 concentrations. The proposed methodology is applied to a data set of daily AOD values in southeastern United States during the period 2003–2005. Via cross-validation experiments, our model had an out-of-sample prediction R2 of 0.78 and a root mean-squared error (RMSE) of 3.61 μg/m3 between observed and predicted daily PM2.5 concentrations. This corresponds to a 10% decrease in RMSE compared with the same land use regression model without AOD as a predictor. Prediction performances of spatial–temporal interpolations to locations and on days without monitoring PM2.5 measurements were also examined. PMID:24368510

Calibrating MODIS aerosol optical depth for predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations via statistical downscaling.

PubMed

Chang, Howard H; Hu, Xuefei; Liu, Yang

2014-07-01

There has been a growing interest in the use of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter). With their broad spatial coverage, satellite data can increase the spatial-temporal availability of air quality data beyond ground monitoring measurements and potentially improve exposure assessment for population-based health studies. This paper describes a statistical downscaling approach that brings together (1) recent advances in PM2.5 land use regression models utilizing AOD and (2) statistical data fusion techniques for combining air quality data sets that have different spatial resolutions. Statistical downscaling assumes the associations between AOD and PM2.5 concentrations to be spatially and temporally dependent and offers two key advantages. First, it enables us to use gridded AOD data to predict PM2.5 concentrations at spatial point locations. Second, the unified hierarchical framework provides straightforward uncertainty quantification in the predicted PM2.5 concentrations. The proposed methodology is applied to a data set of daily AOD values in southeastern United States during the period 2003-2005. Via cross-validation experiments, our model had an out-of-sample prediction R(2) of 0.78 and a root mean-squared error (RMSE) of 3.61 μg/m(3) between observed and predicted daily PM2.5 concentrations. This corresponds to a 10% decrease in RMSE compared with the same land use regression model without AOD as a predictor. Prediction performances of spatial-temporal interpolations to locations and on days without monitoring PM2.5 measurements were also examined.

Higher certainty of the laser-induced damage threshold test with a redistributing data treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Lars; Mrohs, Marius; Gyamfi, Mark

2015-10-15

As a consequence of its statistical nature, the measurement of the laser-induced damage threshold holds always risks to over- or underestimate the real threshold value. As one of the established measurement procedures, the results of S-on-1 (and 1-on-1) tests outlined in the corresponding ISO standard 21 254 depend on the amount of data points and their distribution over the fluence scale. With the limited space on a test sample as well as the requirements on test site separation and beam sizes, the amount of data from one test is restricted. This paper reports on a way to treat damage testmore » data in order to reduce the statistical error and therefore measurement uncertainty. Three simple assumptions allow for the assignment of one data point to multiple data bins and therefore virtually increase the available data base.« less

An introduction to data reduction: space-group determination, scaling and intensity statistics.

PubMed

Evans, Philip R

2011-04-01

This paper presents an overview of how to run the CCP4 programs for data reduction (SCALA, POINTLESS and CTRUNCATE) through the CCP4 graphical interface ccp4i and points out some issues that need to be considered, together with a few examples. It covers determination of the point-group symmetry of the diffraction data (the Laue group), which is required for the subsequent scaling step, examination of systematic absences, which in many cases will allow inference of the space group, putting multiple data sets on a common indexing system when there are alternatives, the scaling step itself, which produces a large set of data-quality indicators, estimation of |F| from intensity and finally examination of intensity statistics to detect crystal pathologies such as twinning. An appendix outlines the scoring schemes used by the program POINTLESS to assign probabilities to possible Laue and space groups.

Statistical tools for transgene copy number estimation based on real-time PCR.

PubMed

Yuan, Joshua S; Burris, Jason; Stewart, Nathan R; Mentewab, Ayalew; Stewart, C Neal

2007-11-01

As compared with traditional transgene copy number detection technologies such as Southern blot analysis, real-time PCR provides a fast, inexpensive and high-throughput alternative. However, the real-time PCR based transgene copy number estimation tends to be ambiguous and subjective stemming from the lack of proper statistical analysis and data quality control to render a reliable estimation of copy number with a prediction value. Despite the recent progresses in statistical analysis of real-time PCR, few publications have integrated these advancements in real-time PCR based transgene copy number determination. Three experimental designs and four data quality control integrated statistical models are presented. For the first method, external calibration curves are established for the transgene based on serially-diluted templates. The Ct number from a control transgenic event and putative transgenic event are compared to derive the transgene copy number or zygosity estimation. Simple linear regression and two group T-test procedures were combined to model the data from this design. For the second experimental design, standard curves were generated for both an internal reference gene and the transgene, and the copy number of transgene was compared with that of internal reference gene. Multiple regression models and ANOVA models can be employed to analyze the data and perform quality control for this approach. In the third experimental design, transgene copy number is compared with reference gene without a standard curve, but rather, is based directly on fluorescence data. Two different multiple regression models were proposed to analyze the data based on two different approaches of amplification efficiency integration. Our results highlight the importance of proper statistical treatment and quality control integration in real-time PCR-based transgene copy number determination. These statistical methods allow the real-time PCR-based transgene copy number estimation to be more reliable and precise with a proper statistical estimation. Proper confidence intervals are necessary for unambiguous prediction of trangene copy number. The four different statistical methods are compared for their advantages and disadvantages. Moreover, the statistical methods can also be applied for other real-time PCR-based quantification assays including transfection efficiency analysis and pathogen quantification.

Recent advances in statistical energy analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heron, K. H.

1992-01-01

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) has traditionally been developed using modal summation and averaging approach, and has led to the need for many restrictive SEA assumptions. The assumption of 'weak coupling' is particularly unacceptable when attempts are made to apply SEA to structural coupling. It is now believed that this assumption is more a function of the modal formulation rather than a necessary formulation of SEA. The present analysis ignores this restriction and describes a wave approach to the calculation of plate-plate coupling loss factors. Predictions based on this method are compared with results obtained from experiments using point excitation on one side of an irregular six-sided box structure. Conclusions show that the use and calculation of infinite transmission coefficients is the way forward for the development of a purely predictive SEA code.

New simple radiological criteria proposed for multiple primary lung cancers.

PubMed

Matsunaga, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kenji; Takamochi, Kazuya; Oh, Shiaki

2017-11-01

Controversies remain as to the differential diagnosis between multiple primary lung cancer (MPLC) and intrapulmonary metastasis (IM) in lung cancers. We have investigated the clinical criteria for MPLC and here propose a set of new and simple criteria from the stand point of prognosis. A retrospective study was conducted on 588 consecutive patients with resected lung cancer of clinical Stage IA between 2009 and 2012. Multiple lung cancers (MLCs) were observed in 103 (17.5%) of the 588 patients. All main and other tumors were divided into solid tumor (ST) and non-solid tumor (non-ST). We defined Group A as MLCs having at least one non-ST and Group B as all tumors being ST. Cox's proportional hazard model was used for the multivariate analyses to investigate the preoperative prognostic factors. We divided the MLCs into MPLC and IM based on the preoperative prognostic factors, and survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate analysis with Cox's proportional hazards model revealed that Group A independently predicted good overall survival (HR = 0.165, 95% CI: 0.041-0.672).Differences in the 3- and 5-year overall survivals between Groups A and B were statistically significant (96.3%/92.2% vs. 70.0%/60.0%, Pvalue = 0.0002). We suggest that Group A, defined as the presence of at least one tumor with a ground glass opacity component and clinical N0, should be excluded from the conventional concept of multiple lung cancers based on the criteria of Martini and Melamed as it has a very good prognosis. This group would be considered to be radiological MPLC. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An exploratory investigation of weight estimation techniques for hypersonic flight vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, E. L.

1981-01-01

The three basic methods of weight prediction (fixed-fraction, statistical correlation, and point stress analysis) and some of the computer programs that have been developed to implement them are discussed. A modified version of the WAATS (Weights Analysis of Advanced Transportation Systems) program is presented, along with input data forms and an example problem.

Correlates and predictors of missed nursing care in hospitals.

PubMed

Bragadóttir, Helga; Kalisch, Beatrice J; Tryggvadóttir, Gudný Bergthora

2017-06-01

To identify the contribution of hospital, unit, staff characteristics, staffing adequacy and teamwork to missed nursing care in Iceland hospitals. A recently identified quality indicator for nursing care and patient safety is missed nursing care defined as any standard, required nursing care omitted or significantly delayed, indicating an error of omission. Former studies point to contributing factors to missed nursing care regarding hospital, unit and staff characteristics, perceptions of staffing adequacy as well as nursing teamwork, displayed in the Missed Nursing Care Model. This was a quantitative cross-sectional survey study. The samples were all registered nurses and practical nurses (n = 864) working on 27 medical, surgical and intensive care inpatient units in eight hospitals throughout Iceland. Response rate was 69·3%. Data were collected in March-April 2012 using the combined MISSCARE Survey-Icelandic and the Nursing Teamwork Survey-Icelandic. Descriptive, correlational and regression statistics were used for data analysis. Missed nursing care was significantly related to hospital and unit type, participants' age and role and their perception of adequate staffing and level of teamwork. The multiple regression testing of Model 1 indicated unit type, role, age and staffing adequacy to predict 16% of the variance in missed nursing care. Controlling for unit type, role, age and perceptions of staffing adequacy, the multiple regression testing of Model 2 showed that nursing teamwork predicted an additional 14% of the variance in missed nursing care. The results shed light on the correlates and predictors of missed nursing care in hospitals. This study gives direction as to the development of strategies for decreasing missed nursing care, including ensuring appropriate staffing levels and enhanced teamwork. By identifying contributing factors to missed nursing care, appropriate interventions can be developed and tested. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

PubMed

Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

Statistical modelling of networked human-automation performance using working memory capacity.

PubMed

Ahmed, Nisar; de Visser, Ewart; Shaw, Tyler; Mohamed-Ameen, Amira; Campbell, Mark; Parasuraman, Raja

2014-01-01

This study examines the challenging problem of modelling the interaction between individual attentional limitations and decision-making performance in networked human-automation system tasks. Analysis of real experimental data from a task involving networked supervision of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles by human participants shows that both task load and network message quality affect performance, but that these effects are modulated by individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity. These insights were used to assess three statistical approaches for modelling and making predictions with real experimental networked supervisory performance data: classical linear regression, non-parametric Gaussian processes and probabilistic Bayesian networks. It is shown that each of these approaches can help designers of networked human-automated systems cope with various uncertainties in order to accommodate future users by linking expected operating conditions and performance from real experimental data to observable cognitive traits like WM capacity. Practitioner Summary: Working memory (WM) capacity helps account for inter-individual variability in operator performance in networked unmanned aerial vehicle supervisory tasks. This is useful for reliable performance prediction near experimental conditions via linear models; robust statistical prediction beyond experimental conditions via Gaussian process models and probabilistic inference about unknown task conditions/WM capacities via Bayesian network models.

Perceptual quality prediction on authentically distorted images using a bag of features approach

PubMed Central

Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Bovik, Alan C.

2017-01-01

Current top-performing blind perceptual image quality prediction models are generally trained on legacy databases of human quality opinion scores on synthetically distorted images. Therefore, they learn image features that effectively predict human visual quality judgments of inauthentic and usually isolated (single) distortions. However, real-world images usually contain complex composite mixtures of multiple distortions. We study the perceptually relevant natural scene statistics of such authentically distorted images in different color spaces and transform domains. We propose a “bag of feature maps” approach that avoids assumptions about the type of distortion(s) contained in an image and instead focuses on capturing consistencies—or departures therefrom—of the statistics of real-world images. Using a large database of authentically distorted images, human opinions of them, and bags of features computed on them, we train a regressor to conduct image quality prediction. We demonstrate the competence of the features toward improving automatic perceptual quality prediction by testing a learned algorithm using them on a benchmark legacy database as well as on a newly introduced distortion-realistic resource called the LIVE In the Wild Image Quality Challenge Database. We extensively evaluate the perceptual quality prediction model and algorithm and show that it is able to achieve good-quality prediction power that is better than other leading models. PMID:28129417

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2016-01-01

Introduction External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. Methods We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. Results The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. Conclusion The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients. PMID:26881753

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

PubMed

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-01-01

External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

Defining window-boundaries for genomic analyses using smoothing spline techniques

DOE PAGES

Beissinger, Timothy M.; Rosa, Guilherme J.M.; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; ...

2015-04-17

High-density genomic data is often analyzed by combining information over windows of adjacent markers. Interpretation of data grouped in windows versus at individual locations may increase statistical power, simplify computation, reduce sampling noise, and reduce the total number of tests performed. However, use of adjacent marker information can result in over- or under-smoothing, undesirable window boundary specifications, or highly correlated test statistics. We introduce a method for defining windows based on statistically guided breakpoints in the data, as a foundation for the analysis of multiple adjacent data points. This method involves first fitting a cubic smoothing spline to the datamore » and then identifying the inflection points of the fitted spline, which serve as the boundaries of adjacent windows. This technique does not require prior knowledge of linkage disequilibrium, and therefore can be applied to data collected from individual or pooled sequencing experiments. Moreover, in contrast to existing methods, an arbitrary choice of window size is not necessary, since these are determined empirically and allowed to vary along the genome.« less

Investigation of the Statistics of Pure Tone Sound Power Injection from Low Frequency, Finite Sized Sources in a Reverberant Room

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Wayne Farrior

1973-01-01

The effect of finite source size on the power statistics in a reverberant room for pure tone excitation was investigated. Theoretical results indicate that the standard deviation of low frequency, pure tone finite sources is always less than that predicted by point source theory and considerably less when the source dimension approaches one-half an acoustic wavelength or greater. A supporting experimental study was conducted utilizing an eight inch loudspeaker and a 30 inch loudspeaker at eleven source positions. The resulting standard deviation of sound power output of the smaller speaker is in excellent agreement with both the derived finite source theory and existing point source theory, if the theoretical data is adjusted to account for experimental incomplete spatial averaging. However, the standard deviation of sound power output of the larger speaker is measurably lower than point source theory indicates, but is in good agreement with the finite source theory.

Measuring a diffusion coefficient by single-particle tracking: statistical analysis of experimental mean squared displacement curves.

PubMed

Ernst, Dominique; Köhler, Jürgen

2013-01-21

We provide experimental results on the accuracy of diffusion coefficients obtained by a mean squared displacement (MSD) analysis of single-particle trajectories. We have recorded very long trajectories comprising more than 1.5 × 10(5) data points and decomposed these long trajectories into shorter segments providing us with ensembles of trajectories of variable lengths. This enabled a statistical analysis of the resulting MSD curves as a function of the lengths of the segments. We find that the relative error of the diffusion coefficient can be minimized by taking an optimum number of points into account for fitting the MSD curves, and that this optimum does not depend on the segment length. Yet, the magnitude of the relative error for the diffusion coefficient does, and achieving an accuracy in the order of 10% requires the recording of trajectories with about 1000 data points. Finally, we compare our results with theoretical predictions and find very good qualitative and quantitative agreement between experiment and theory.

Accurate prediction of cardiorespiratory fitness using cycle ergometry in minimally disabled persons with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Motl, Robert W; Fernhall, Bo

2012-03-01

To examine the accuracy of predicting peak oxygen consumption (VO(2peak)) primarily from peak work rate (WR(peak)) recorded during a maximal, incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer among persons with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who had minimal disability. Cross-sectional study. Clinical research laboratory. Women with RRMS (n=32) and sex-, age-, height-, and weight-matched healthy controls (n=16) completed an incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer to volitional termination. Not applicable. Measured and predicted VO(2peak) and WR(peak). There were strong, statistically significant associations between measured and predicted VO(2peak) in the overall sample (R(2)=.89, standard error of the estimate=127.4 mL/min) and subsamples with (R(2)=.89, standard error of the estimate=131.3 mL/min) and without (R(2)=.85, standard error of the estimate=126.8 mL/min) multiple sclerosis (MS) based on the linear regression analyses. Based on the 95% confidence limits for worst-case errors, the equation predicted VO(2peak) within 10% of its true value in 95 of every 100 subjects with MS. Peak VO(2) can be accurately predicted in persons with RRMS who have minimal disability as it is in controls by using established equations and WR(peak) recorded from a maximal, incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declarative Joint Attention as a Foundation of Theory of Mind

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sodian, Beate; Kristen-Antonow, Susanne

2015-01-01

Theories of social-cognitive development have attributed a foundational role to declarative joint attention. The present longitudinal study of 83 children, who were assessed on a battery of social-cognitive tasks at multiple measurement points from the age of 12 to 50 months, tested a predictive model of theory of mind (false-belief…

Lagged Associations of Metropolitan Statistical Area- and State-Level Income Inequality with Cognitive Function: The Health and Retirement Study.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; Kabeto, Mohammed; Escarce, José; Langa, Kenneth M; Shih, Regina A

2016-01-01

Much variation in individual-level cognitive function in late life remains unexplained, with little exploration of area-level/contextual factors to date. Income inequality is a contextual factor that may plausibly influence cognitive function. In a nationally-representative cohort of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined state- and metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level income inequality as predictors of individual-level cognitive function measured by the 27-point Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-m) scale. We modeled latency periods of 8-20 years, and controlled for state-/metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level and individual-level factors. Higher MSA-level income inequality predicted lower cognitive function 16-18 years later. Using a 16-year lag, living in a MSA in the highest income inequality quartile predicted a 0.9-point lower TICS-m score (β = -0.86; 95% CI = -1.41, -0.31), roughly equivalent to the magnitude associated with five years of aging. We observed no associations for state-level income inequality. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses using propensity score methods. Among older Americans, MSA-level income inequality appears to influence cognitive function nearly two decades later. Policies reducing income inequality levels within cities may help address the growing burden of declining cognitive function among older populations within the United States.

Lagged Associations of Metropolitan Statistical Area- and State-Level Income Inequality with Cognitive Function: The Health and Retirement Study

PubMed Central

Kim, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; Kabeto, Mohammed; Escarce, José; Langa, Kenneth M.; Shih, Regina A.

2016-01-01

Purpose Much variation in individual-level cognitive function in late life remains unexplained, with little exploration of area-level/contextual factors to date. Income inequality is a contextual factor that may plausibly influence cognitive function. Methods In a nationally-representative cohort of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined state- and metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level income inequality as predictors of individual-level cognitive function measured by the 27-point Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-m) scale. We modeled latency periods of 8–20 years, and controlled for state-/metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level and individual-level factors. Results Higher MSA-level income inequality predicted lower cognitive function 16–18 years later. Using a 16-year lag, living in a MSA in the highest income inequality quartile predicted a 0.9-point lower TICS-m score (β = -0.86; 95% CI = -1.41, -0.31), roughly equivalent to the magnitude associated with five years of aging. We observed no associations for state-level income inequality. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses using propensity score methods. Conclusions Among older Americans, MSA-level income inequality appears to influence cognitive function nearly two decades later. Policies reducing income inequality levels within cities may help address the growing burden of declining cognitive function among older populations within the United States. PMID:27332986

Detection of non-Gaussian fluctuations in a quantum point contact.

PubMed

Gershon, G; Bomze, Yu; Sukhorukov, E V; Reznikov, M

2008-07-04

An experimental study of current fluctuations through a tunable transmission barrier, a quantum point contact, is reported. We measure the probability distribution function of transmitted charge with precision sufficient to extract the first three cumulants. To obtain the intrinsic quantities, corresponding to voltage-biased barrier, we employ a procedure that accounts for the response of the external circuit and the amplifier. The third cumulant, obtained with a high precision, is found to agree with the prediction for the statistics of transport in the non-Poissonian regime.

Detection of Non-Gaussian Fluctuations in a Quantum Point Contact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershon, G.; Bomze, Yu.; Sukhorukov, E. V.; Reznikov, M.

2008-07-01

An experimental study of current fluctuations through a tunable transmission barrier, a quantum point contact, is reported. We measure the probability distribution function of transmitted charge with precision sufficient to extract the first three cumulants. To obtain the intrinsic quantities, corresponding to voltage-biased barrier, we employ a procedure that accounts for the response of the external circuit and the amplifier. The third cumulant, obtained with a high precision, is found to agree with the prediction for the statistics of transport in the non-Poissonian regime.

A simple tool to predict admission at the time of triage.

PubMed

Cameron, Allan; Rodgers, Kenneth; Ireland, Alastair; Jamdar, Ravi; McKay, Gerard A

2015-03-01

To create and validate a simple clinical score to estimate the probability of admission at the time of triage. This was a multicentre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of triage records for all unscheduled adult attendances in North Glasgow over 2 years. Clinical variables that had significant associations with admission on logistic regression were entered into a mixed-effects multiple logistic model. This provided weightings for the score, which was then simplified and tested on a separate validation group by receiving operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. 215 231 presentations were used for model derivation and 107 615 for validation. Variables in the final model showing clinically and statistically significant associations with admission were: triage category, age, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), arrival by ambulance, referral source and admission within the last year. The resulting 6-variable score showed excellent admission/discharge discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.8774, 95% CI 0.8752 to 0.8796). Higher scores also predicted early returns for those who were discharged: the odds of subsequent admission within 28 days doubled for every 7-point increase (log odds=+0.0933 per point, p<0.0001). This simple, 6-variable score accurately estimates the probability of admission purely from triage information. Most patients could accurately be assigned to 'admission likely', 'admission unlikely', 'admission very unlikely' etc., by setting appropriate cut-offs. This could have uses in patient streaming, bed management and decision support. It also has the potential to control for demographics when comparing performance over time or between departments. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Validating a Monotonically-Integrated Large Eddy Simulation Code for Subsonic Jet Acoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingraham, Daniel; Bridges, James

2017-01-01

The results of subsonic jet validation cases for the Naval Research Lab's Jet Engine Noise REduction (JENRE) code are reported. Two set points from the Tanna matrix, set point 3 (Ma = 0.5, unheated) and set point 7 (Ma = 0.9, unheated) are attempted on three different meshes. After a brief discussion of the JENRE code and the meshes constructed for this work, the turbulent statistics for the axial velocity are presented and compared to experimental data, with favorable results. Preliminary simulations for set point 23 (Ma = 0.5, Tj=T1 = 1.764) on one of the meshes are also described. Finally, the proposed configuration for the farfield noise prediction with JENRE's Ffowcs-Williams Hawking solver are detailed.

Prediction of Academic Achievement in an NATA-Approved Graduate Athletic Training Education Program

PubMed Central

Keskula, Douglas R.; Sammarone, Paula G.; Perrin, David H.

1995-01-01

The Purpose of this investigation was to determine which information used in the applicant selection process would best predict the final grade point average of students in a National Athletic Trainers Association (NATA) graduate athletic training education program. The criterion variable used was the graduate grade-point average (GPAg) calculated at the completion of the program of study. The predictor variables included: 1) Graduate Record Examination-Quantitative (GRE-Q) scores; and 2) Graduate Record Examination-Verbal (GRE-V) scores, 3) preadmission grade point average (GPAp), 4) total athletic training hours (hours), and 5) curriculum or internship undergraduate athletic training education (program). Data from 55 graduate athletic training students during a 5-year period were evaluated. Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated that GPAp was a significant predictor of GPAg, accounting for 34% of the variance. GRE-Q, GRE-V, hours, and program did not significantly contribute individually or in combination to the prediction of GPAg. The results of this investigation suggest that, of the variables examined, GPAp is the best predictor of academic success in an NATA-approved graduate athletic training education program. PMID:16558312

A basket two-part model to analyze medical expenditure on interdependent multiple sectors.

PubMed

Sugawara, Shinya; Wu, Tianyi; Yamanishi, Kenji

2018-05-01

This study proposes a novel statistical methodology to analyze expenditure on multiple medical sectors using consumer data. Conventionally, medical expenditure has been analyzed by two-part models, which separately consider purchase decision and amount of expenditure. We extend the traditional two-part models by adding the step of basket analysis for dimension reduction. This new step enables us to analyze complicated interdependence between multiple sectors without an identification problem. As an empirical application for the proposed method, we analyze data of 13 medical sectors from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. In comparison with the results of previous studies that analyzed the multiple sector independently, our method provides more detailed implications of the impacts of individual socioeconomic status on the composition of joint purchases from multiple medical sectors; our method has a better prediction performance.

Prediction of seizure-onset laterality by using Wada memory asymmetries in pediatric epilepsy surgery candidates.

PubMed

Lee, Gregory P; Park, Yong D; Hempel, Ann; Westerveld, Michael; Loring, David W

2002-09-01

Because the capacity of intracarotid amobarbital (Wada) memory assessment to predict seizure-onset laterality in children has not been thoroughly investigated, three comprehensive epilepsy surgery centers pooled their data and examined Wada memory asymmetries to predict side of seizure onset in children being considered for epilepsy surgery. One hundred fifty-two children with intractable epilepsy underwent Wada testing. Although the type and number of memory stimuli and methods varied at each institution, all children were presented with six to 10 items soon after amobarbital injection. After return to neurologic baseline, recognition memory for the stimuli was assessed. Seizure onset was determined by simultaneous video-EEG recordings of multiple seizures. In children with unilateral temporal lobe seizures (n = 87), Wada memory asymmetries accurately predicted seizure laterality to a statistically significant degree. Wada memory asymmetries also correctly predicted side of seizure onset in children with extra-temporal lobe seizures (n = 65). Although individual patient prediction accuracy was statistically significant in temporal lobe cases, onset laterality was incorrectly predicted in < or =52% of children with left temporal lobe seizure onset, depending on the methods and asymmetry criterion used. There also were significant differences between Wada prediction accuracy across the three epilepsy centers. Results suggest that Wada memory assessment is useful in predicting side of seizure onset in many children. However, Wada memory asymmetries should be interpreted more cautiously in children than in adults.

A Quantile Regression Approach to Understanding the Relations among Morphological Awareness, Vocabulary, and Reading Comprehension in Adult Basic Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Schatschneider, Christopher

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the joint and unique contributions of morphological awareness and vocabulary knowledge at five reading comprehension levels in adult basic education (ABE) students. We introduce the statistical technique of multiple quantile regression, which enabled us to assess the predictive utility of morphological…

Prediction of individual probabilities of livebirth and multiple birth events following in vitro fertilization (IVF): a new outcomes counselling tool for IVF providers and patients using HFEA metrics

PubMed Central

Jones, Christopher A.; Christensen, Anna L.; Salihu, Hamisu; Carpenter, William; Petrozzino, Jeffrey; Abrams, Elizabeth; Sills, Eric Scott; Keith, Louis G.

2011-01-01

In vitro fertilization (IVF) has become a standard treatment for subfertility after it was demonstrated to be of value to humans in 1978. However, the introduction of IVF into mainstream clinical practice has been accompanied by concerns regarding the number of multiple gestations that it can produce, as multiple births present significant medical consequences to mothers and offspring. When considering IVF as a treatment modality, a balance must be set between the chance of having a live birth and the risk of having a multiple birth. As IVF is often a costly decision for patients—financially, medically, and emotionally—there is benefit from estimating a patient’s specific chance that IVF could result in a birth as fertility treatment options are contemplated. Historically, a patient’s “chance of success” with IVF has been approximated from institution-based statistics, rather than on the basis of any particular clinical parameter (except age). Furthermore, the likelihood of IVF resulting in a twin or triplet outcome must be acknowledged for each patient, given the known increased complications of multiple gestation and consequent increased risk of poor birth outcomes. In this research, we describe a multivariate risk assessment model that incorporates metrics adapted from a national 7.5-year sampling of the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority (HFEA) dataset (1991–1998) to predict reproductive outcome (including estimation of multiple birth) after IVF. To our knowledge, http://www.formyodds.com is the first Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) application to predict IVF outcome. The approach also includes a confirmation functionality, where clinicians can agree or disagree with the computer-generated outcome predictions. It is anticipated that the emergence of predictive tools will augment the reproductive endocrinology consultation, improve the medical informed consent process by tailoring the outcome assessment to each patient, and reduce the potential for adverse outcomes with IVF. PMID:21991292

Prediction of individual probabilities of livebirth and multiple birth events following in vitro fertilization (IVF): a new outcomes counselling tool for IVF providers and patients using HFEA metrics.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher A; Christensen, Anna L; Salihu, Hamisu; Carpenter, William; Petrozzino, Jeffrey; Abrams, Elizabeth; Sills, Eric Scott; Keith, Louis G

2011-01-01

In vitro fertilization (IVF) has become a standard treatment for subfertility after it was demonstrated to be of value to humans in 1978. However, the introduction of IVF into mainstream clinical practice has been accompanied by concerns regarding the number of multiple gestations that it can produce, as multiple births present significant medical consequences to mothers and offspring. When considering IVF as a treatment modality, a balance must be set between the chance of having a live birth and the risk of having a multiple birth. As IVF is often a costly decision for patients-financially, medically, and emotionally-there is benefit from estimating a patient's specific chance that IVF could result in a birth as fertility treatment options are contemplated. Historically, a patient's "chance of success" with IVF has been approximated from institution-based statistics, rather than on the basis of any particular clinical parameter (except age). Furthermore, the likelihood of IVF resulting in a twin or triplet outcome must be acknowledged for each patient, given the known increased complications of multiple gestation and consequent increased risk of poor birth outcomes. In this research, we describe a multivariate risk assessment model that incorporates metrics adapted from a national 7.5-year sampling of the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority (HFEA) dataset (1991-1998) to predict reproductive outcome (including estimation of multiple birth) after IVF. To our knowledge, http://www.formyodds.com is the first Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) application to predict IVF outcome. The approach also includes a confirmation functionality, where clinicians can agree or disagree with the computer-generated outcome predictions. It is anticipated that the emergence of predictive tools will augment the reproductive endocrinology consultation, improve the medical informed consent process by tailoring the outcome assessment to each patient, and reduce the potential for adverse outcomes with IVF.

A nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations to adjust for complex sampling design features.

PubMed

Dong, Qi; Elliott, Michael R; Raghunathan, Trivellore E

2014-06-01

Outside of the survey sampling literature, samples are often assumed to be generated by a simple random sampling process that produces independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Many statistical methods are developed largely in this IID world. Application of these methods to data from complex sample surveys without making allowance for the survey design features can lead to erroneous inferences. Hence, much time and effort have been devoted to develop the statistical methods to analyze complex survey data and account for the sample design. This issue is particularly important when generating synthetic populations using finite population Bayesian inference, as is often done in missing data or disclosure risk settings, or when combining data from multiple surveys. By extending previous work in finite population Bayesian bootstrap literature, we propose a method to generate synthetic populations from a posterior predictive distribution in a fashion inverts the complex sampling design features and generates simple random samples from a superpopulation point of view, making adjustment on the complex data so that they can be analyzed as simple random samples. We consider a simulation study with a stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample design, and use the proposed nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations for the 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), which are stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample designs.

A nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations to adjust for complex sampling design features

PubMed Central

Dong, Qi; Elliott, Michael R.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.

2017-01-01

Outside of the survey sampling literature, samples are often assumed to be generated by a simple random sampling process that produces independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Many statistical methods are developed largely in this IID world. Application of these methods to data from complex sample surveys without making allowance for the survey design features can lead to erroneous inferences. Hence, much time and effort have been devoted to develop the statistical methods to analyze complex survey data and account for the sample design. This issue is particularly important when generating synthetic populations using finite population Bayesian inference, as is often done in missing data or disclosure risk settings, or when combining data from multiple surveys. By extending previous work in finite population Bayesian bootstrap literature, we propose a method to generate synthetic populations from a posterior predictive distribution in a fashion inverts the complex sampling design features and generates simple random samples from a superpopulation point of view, making adjustment on the complex data so that they can be analyzed as simple random samples. We consider a simulation study with a stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample design, and use the proposed nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations for the 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), which are stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample designs. PMID:29200608

Lagrangian statistics in weakly forced two-dimensional turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivera, Michael K.; Ecke, Robert E.

Measurements of Lagrangian single-point and multiple-point statistics in a quasi-two-dimensional stratified layer system are reported. The system consists of a layer of salt water over an immiscible layer of Fluorinert and is forced electromagnetically so that mean-squared vorticity is injected at a well-defined spatial scale r i. Simultaneous cascades develop in which enstrophy flows predominately to small scales whereas energy cascades, on average, to larger scales. Lagrangian correlations and one- and two-point displacements are measured for random initial conditions and for initial positions within topological centers and saddles. Some of the behavior of these quantities can be understood in termsmore » of the trapping characteristics of long-lived centers, the slow motion near strong saddles, and the rapid fluctuations outside of either centers or saddles. We also present statistics of Lagrangian velocity fluctuations using energy spectra in frequency space and structure functions in real space. We compare with complementary Eulerian velocity statistics. We find that simultaneous inverse energy and enstrophy ranges present in spectra are not directly echoed in real-space moments of velocity difference. Nevertheless, the spectral ranges line up well with features of moment ratios, indicating that although the moments are not exhibiting unambiguous scaling, the behavior of the probability distribution functions is changing over short ranges of length scales. Furthermore, implications for understanding weakly forced 2D turbulence with simultaneous inverse and direct cascades are discussed.« less

Lagrangian statistics in weakly forced two-dimensional turbulence

DOE PAGES

Rivera, Michael K.; Ecke, Robert E.

2016-01-14

Measurements of Lagrangian single-point and multiple-point statistics in a quasi-two-dimensional stratified layer system are reported. The system consists of a layer of salt water over an immiscible layer of Fluorinert and is forced electromagnetically so that mean-squared vorticity is injected at a well-defined spatial scale r i. Simultaneous cascades develop in which enstrophy flows predominately to small scales whereas energy cascades, on average, to larger scales. Lagrangian correlations and one- and two-point displacements are measured for random initial conditions and for initial positions within topological centers and saddles. Some of the behavior of these quantities can be understood in termsmore » of the trapping characteristics of long-lived centers, the slow motion near strong saddles, and the rapid fluctuations outside of either centers or saddles. We also present statistics of Lagrangian velocity fluctuations using energy spectra in frequency space and structure functions in real space. We compare with complementary Eulerian velocity statistics. We find that simultaneous inverse energy and enstrophy ranges present in spectra are not directly echoed in real-space moments of velocity difference. Nevertheless, the spectral ranges line up well with features of moment ratios, indicating that although the moments are not exhibiting unambiguous scaling, the behavior of the probability distribution functions is changing over short ranges of length scales. Furthermore, implications for understanding weakly forced 2D turbulence with simultaneous inverse and direct cascades are discussed.« less

Factorial analysis of trihalomethanes formation in drinking water.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2010-06-01

Disinfection of drinking water reduces pathogenic infection, but may pose risks to human health through the formation of disinfection byproducts. The effects of different factors on the formation of trihalomethanes were investigated using a statistically designed experimental program, and a predictive model for trihalomethanes formation was developed. Synthetic water samples with different factor levels were produced, and trihalomethanes concentrations were measured. A replicated fractional factorial design with center points was performed, and significant factors were identified through statistical analysis. A second-order trihalomethanes formation model was developed from 92 experiments, and the statistical adequacy was assessed through appropriate diagnostics. This model was validated using additional data from the Drinking Water Surveillance Program database and was applied to the Smiths Falls water supply system in Ontario, Canada. The model predictions were correlated strongly to the measured trihalomethanes, with correlations of 0.95 and 0.91, respectively. The resulting model can assist in analyzing risk-cost tradeoffs in the design and operation of water supply systems.

The effects of competition on assisted reproductive technology outcomes.

PubMed

Henne, Melinda B; Bundorf, M Kate

2010-04-01

To evaluate the relationship between competition among fertility clinics and assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment outcomes, particularly multiple births. Using clinic-level data from 1995 to 2001, we examined the relationship between competition and clinic-level ART outcomes and practice patterns. National database registry. Clinics performing ART. The number of clinics within a 20-mile (32.19-km) radius of a given clinic. Clinic-level births, singleton births, and multiple births per ART cycle; multiple births per ART birth; average number of embryos transferred per cycle; and the proportion of cycles for women under age 35 years. The number of competing clinics is not strongly associated with ART birth and multiple birth rates. Relative to clinics with no competitors, the rate of multiple births per cycle is lower (-0.03 percentage points) only for clinics with more than 15 competitors. Embryo transfer practices are not statistically significantly associated with the number of competitors. Clinic-level competition is strongly associated with patient mix. The proportion of cycles for patients under 35 years old is 6.4 percentage points lower for clinics with more than 15 competitors than for those with no competitors. Competition among fertility clinics does not appear to increase rates of multiple births from ART by promoting more aggressive embryo transfer decisions. Copyright 2010 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Published by Elsevier Inc.

Do sophisticated epistemic beliefs predict meaningful learning? Findings from a structural equation model of undergraduate biology learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Silvia Wen-Yu; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2016-10-01

This study investigated the relationships among college students' epistemic beliefs in biology (EBB), conceptions of learning biology (COLB), and strategies of learning biology (SLB). EBB includes four dimensions, namely 'multiple-source,' 'uncertainty,' 'development,' and 'justification.' COLB is further divided into 'constructivist' and 'reproductive' conceptions, while SLB represents deep strategies and surface learning strategies. Questionnaire responses were gathered from 303 college students. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling showed acceptable model fits. Mediation testing further revealed two paths with complete mediation. In sum, students' epistemic beliefs of 'uncertainty' and 'justification' in biology were statistically significant in explaining the constructivist and reproductive COLB, respectively; and 'uncertainty' was statistically significant in explaining the deep SLB as well. The results of mediation testing further revealed that 'uncertainty' predicted surface strategies through the mediation of 'reproductive' conceptions; and the relationship between 'justification' and deep strategies was mediated by 'constructivist' COLB. This study provides evidence for the essential roles some epistemic beliefs play in predicting students' learning.

Investigation of energy management strategies for photovoltaic systems - A predictive control algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cull, R. C.; Eltimsahy, A. H.

1983-01-01

The present investigation is concerned with the formulation of energy management strategies for stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems, taking into account a basic control algorithm for a possible predictive, (and adaptive) controller. The control system controls the flow of energy in the system according to the amount of energy available, and predicts the appropriate control set-points based on the energy (insolation) available by using an appropriate system model. Aspects of adaptation to the conditions of the system are also considered. Attention is given to a statistical analysis technique, the analysis inputs, the analysis procedure, and details regarding the basic control algorithm.

Stochastic simulation of predictive space–time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bessac, Julie; Constantinescu, Emil; Anitescu, Mihai

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, themore » samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra and space-time correlation structure.« less

Stochastic simulation of predictive space–time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

DOE PAGES

Bessac, Julie; Constantinescu, Emil; Anitescu, Mihai

2018-03-01

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, themore » samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra and space-time correlation structure.« less

Statistical learning in social action contexts.

PubMed

Monroy, Claire; Meyer, Marlene; Gerson, Sarah; Hunnius, Sabine

2017-01-01

Sensitivity to the regularities and structure contained within sequential, goal-directed actions is an important building block for generating expectations about the actions we observe. Until now, research on statistical learning for actions has solely focused on individual action sequences, but many actions in daily life involve multiple actors in various interaction contexts. The current study is the first to investigate the role of statistical learning in tracking regularities between actions performed by different actors, and whether the social context characterizing their interaction influences learning. That is, are observers more likely to track regularities across actors if they are perceived as acting jointly as opposed to in parallel? We tested adults and toddlers to explore whether social context guides statistical learning and-if so-whether it does so from early in development. In a between-subjects eye-tracking experiment, participants were primed with a social context cue between two actors who either shared a goal of playing together ('Joint' condition) or stated the intention to act alone ('Parallel' condition). In subsequent videos, the actors performed sequential actions in which, for certain action pairs, the first actor's action reliably predicted the second actor's action. We analyzed predictive eye movements to upcoming actions as a measure of learning, and found that both adults and toddlers learned the statistical regularities across actors when their actions caused an effect. Further, adults with high statistical learning performance were sensitive to social context: those who observed actors with a shared goal were more likely to correctly predict upcoming actions. In contrast, there was no effect of social context in the toddler group, regardless of learning performance. These findings shed light on how adults and toddlers perceive statistical regularities across actors depending on the nature of the observed social situation and the resulting effects.

Statistical learning in social action contexts

PubMed Central

Meyer, Marlene; Gerson, Sarah; Hunnius, Sabine

2017-01-01

Sensitivity to the regularities and structure contained within sequential, goal-directed actions is an important building block for generating expectations about the actions we observe. Until now, research on statistical learning for actions has solely focused on individual action sequences, but many actions in daily life involve multiple actors in various interaction contexts. The current study is the first to investigate the role of statistical learning in tracking regularities between actions performed by different actors, and whether the social context characterizing their interaction influences learning. That is, are observers more likely to track regularities across actors if they are perceived as acting jointly as opposed to in parallel? We tested adults and toddlers to explore whether social context guides statistical learning and—if so—whether it does so from early in development. In a between-subjects eye-tracking experiment, participants were primed with a social context cue between two actors who either shared a goal of playing together (‘Joint’ condition) or stated the intention to act alone (‘Parallel’ condition). In subsequent videos, the actors performed sequential actions in which, for certain action pairs, the first actor’s action reliably predicted the second actor’s action. We analyzed predictive eye movements to upcoming actions as a measure of learning, and found that both adults and toddlers learned the statistical regularities across actors when their actions caused an effect. Further, adults with high statistical learning performance were sensitive to social context: those who observed actors with a shared goal were more likely to correctly predict upcoming actions. In contrast, there was no effect of social context in the toddler group, regardless of learning performance. These findings shed light on how adults and toddlers perceive statistical regularities across actors depending on the nature of the observed social situation and the resulting effects. PMID:28475619

Galaxy mergers and gravitational lens statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rix, Hans-Walter; Maoz, Dan; Turner, Edwin L.; Fukugita, Masataka

1994-01-01

We investigate the impact of hierarchical galaxy merging on the statistics of gravitational lensing of distant sources. Since no definite theoretical predictions for the merging history of luminous galaxies exist, we adopt a parameterized prescription, which allows us to adjust the expected number of pieces comprising a typical present galaxy at z approximately 0.65. The existence of global parameter relations for elliptical galaxies and constraints on the evolution of the phase space density in dissipationless mergers, allow us to limit the possible evolution of galaxy lens properties under merging. We draw two lessons from implementing this lens evolution into statistical lens calculations: (1) The total optical depth to multiple imaging (e.g., of quasars) is quite insensitive to merging. (2) Merging leads to a smaller mean separation of observed multiple images. Because merging does not reduce drastically the expected lensing frequency, it cannot make lambda-dominated cosmologies compatible with the existing lensing observations. A comparison with the data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Snapshot Survey shows that models with little or no evolution of the lens population are statistically favored over strong merging scenarios. A specific merging scenario proposed to Toomre can be rejected (95% level) by such a comparison. Some versions of the scenario proposed by Broadhurst, Ellis, & Glazebrook are statistically acceptable.

Development of Intelligent Unmanned Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

statistical analysis on the terrain map. The data points are stored in the corresponding cells of the Traversability Grid as a linked list of 3-D Cartesian...allowed for multiple configurations of specified data to be as flexible as possible. For example, when an object is being created the knowledge store ...library was also used for querying and storing spatial data . It provided many geometric abstractions necessary such as overlap and intersects

Analyzing self-controlled case series data when case confirmation rates are estimated from an internal validation sample.

PubMed

Xu, Stanley; Clarke, Christina L; Newcomer, Sophia R; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M

2018-05-16

Vaccine safety studies are often electronic health record (EHR)-based observational studies. These studies often face significant methodological challenges, including confounding and misclassification of adverse event. Vaccine safety researchers use self-controlled case series (SCCS) study design to handle confounding effect and employ medical chart review to ascertain cases that are identified using EHR data. However, for common adverse events, limited resources often make it impossible to adjudicate all adverse events observed in electronic data. In this paper, we considered four approaches for analyzing SCCS data with confirmation rates estimated from an internal validation sample: (1) observed cases, (2) confirmed cases only, (3) known confirmation rate, and (4) multiple imputation (MI). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate these four approaches using type I error rates, percent bias, and empirical power. Our simulation results suggest that when misclassification of adverse events is present, approaches such as observed cases, confirmed case only, and known confirmation rate may inflate the type I error, yield biased point estimates, and affect statistical power. The multiple imputation approach considers the uncertainty of estimated confirmation rates from an internal validation sample, yields a proper type I error rate, largely unbiased point estimate, proper variance estimate, and statistical power. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Accelerating simulation for the multiple-point statistics algorithm using vector quantization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Chen; Pan, Zhibin; Liang, Hao

2018-03-01

Multiple-point statistics (MPS) is a prominent algorithm to simulate categorical variables based on a sequential simulation procedure. Assuming training images (TIs) as prior conceptual models, MPS extracts patterns from TIs using a template and records their occurrences in a database. However, complex patterns increase the size of the database and require considerable time to retrieve the desired elements. In order to speed up simulation and improve simulation quality over state-of-the-art MPS methods, we propose an accelerating simulation for MPS using vector quantization (VQ), called VQ-MPS. First, a variable representation is presented to make categorical variables applicable for vector quantization. Second, we adopt a tree-structured VQ to compress the database so that stationary simulations are realized. Finally, a transformed template and classified VQ are used to address nonstationarity. A two-dimensional (2D) stationary channelized reservoir image is used to validate the proposed VQ-MPS. In comparison with several existing MPS programs, our method exhibits significantly better performance in terms of computational time, pattern reproductions, and spatial uncertainty. Further demonstrations consist of a 2D four facies simulation, two 2D nonstationary channel simulations, and a three-dimensional (3D) rock simulation. The results reveal that our proposed method is also capable of solving multifacies, nonstationarity, and 3D simulations based on 2D TIs.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Predicting Flood Hazards in Systems with Multiple Flooding Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, A.; Schubert, J.; Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.

2014-12-01

Delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from a single mechanism (riverine flooding) is a relatively well defined procedure with specific guidance from agencies such as FEMA and USACE. However, there is little guidance in delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from multiple mechanisms such as storm surge, waves, tidal influence, and riverine flooding. In this study, a new flood mapping method which accounts for multiple extremes occurring simultaneously is developed and exemplified. The study site in which the method is employed is the Tijuana River Estuary (TRE) located in Southern California adjacent to the U.S./Mexico border. TRE is an intertidal coastal estuary that receives freshwater flows from the Tijuana River. Extreme discharge from the Tijuana River is the primary driver of flooding within TRE, however tide level and storm surge also play a significant role in flooding extent and depth. A comparison between measured flows at the Tijuana River and ocean levels revealed a correlation between extreme discharge and ocean height. Using a novel statistical method based upon extreme value theory, ocean heights were predicted conditioned up extreme discharge occurring within the Tijuana River. This statistical technique could also be applied to other systems in which different factors are identified as the primary drivers of flooding, such as significant wave height conditioned upon tide level, for example. Using the predicted ocean levels conditioned upon varying return levels of discharge as forcing parameters for the 2D hydraulic model BreZo, the 100, 50, 20, and 10 year floodplains were delineated. The results will then be compared to floodplains delineated using the standard methods recommended by FEMA for riverine zones with a downstream ocean boundary.

Identifying optimal threshold statistics for elimination of hookworm using a stochastic simulation model.

PubMed

Truscott, James E; Werkman, Marleen; Wright, James E; Farrell, Sam H; Sarkar, Rajiv; Ásbjörnsdóttir, Kristjana; Anderson, Roy M

2017-06-30

There is an increased focus on whether mass drug administration (MDA) programmes alone can interrupt the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH). Mathematical models can be used to model these interventions and are increasingly being implemented to inform investigators about expected trial outcome and the choice of optimum study design. One key factor is the choice of threshold for detecting elimination. However, there are currently no thresholds defined for STH regarding breaking transmission. We develop a simulation of an elimination study, based on the DeWorm3 project, using an individual-based stochastic disease transmission model in conjunction with models of MDA, sampling, diagnostics and the construction of study clusters. The simulation is then used to analyse the relationship between the study end-point elimination threshold and whether elimination is achieved in the long term within the model. We analyse the quality of a range of statistics in terms of the positive predictive values (PPV) and how they depend on a range of covariates, including threshold values, baseline prevalence, measurement time point and how clusters are constructed. End-point infection prevalence performs well in discriminating between villages that achieve interruption of transmission and those that do not, although the quality of the threshold is sensitive to baseline prevalence and threshold value. Optimal post-treatment prevalence threshold value for determining elimination is in the range 2% or less when the baseline prevalence range is broad. For multiple clusters of communities, both the probability of elimination and the ability of thresholds to detect it are strongly dependent on the size of the cluster and the size distribution of the constituent communities. Number of communities in a cluster is a key indicator of probability of elimination and PPV. Extending the time, post-study endpoint, at which the threshold statistic is measured improves PPV value in discriminating between eliminating clusters and those that bounce back. The probability of elimination and PPV are very sensitive to baseline prevalence for individual communities. However, most studies and programmes are constructed on the basis of clusters. Since elimination occurs within smaller population sub-units, the construction of clusters introduces new sensitivities for elimination threshold values to cluster size and the underlying population structure. Study simulation offers an opportunity to investigate key sources of sensitivity for elimination studies and programme designs in advance and to tailor interventions to prevailing local or national conditions.

Statistical Anomalies of Bitflips in SRAMs to Discriminate SBUs From MCUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemente, Juan Antonio; Franco, Francisco J.; Villa, Francesca; Baylac, Maud; Rey, Solenne; Mecha, Hortensia; Agapito, Juan A.; Puchner, Helmut; Hubert, Guillaume; Velazco, Raoul

2016-08-01

Recently, the occurrence of multiple events in static tests has been investigated by checking the statistical distribution of the difference between the addresses of the words containing bitflips. That method has been successfully applied to Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and the original authors indicate that it is also valid for SRAMs. This paper presents a modified methodology that is based on checking the XORed addresses with bitflips, rather than on the difference. Irradiation tests on CMOS 130 & 90 nm SRAMs with 14-MeV neutrons have been performed to validate this methodology. Results in high-altitude environments are also presented and cross-checked with theoretical predictions. In addition, this methodology has also been used to detect modifications in the organization of said memories. Theoretical predictions have been validated with actual data provided by the manufacturer.

Comparison of breast DCE-MRI contrast time points for predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy using deep convolutional neural network features with transfer learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huynh, Benjamin Q.; Antropova, Natasha; Giger, Maryellen L.

2017-03-01

DCE-MRI datasets have a temporal aspect to them, resulting in multiple regions of interest (ROIs) per subject, based on contrast time points. It is unclear how the different contrast time points vary in terms of usefulness for computer-aided diagnosis tasks in conjunction with deep learning methods. We thus sought to compare the different DCE-MRI contrast time points with regard to how well their extracted features predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy within a deep convolutional neural network. Our dataset consisted of 561 ROIs from 64 subjects. Each subject was categorized as a non-responder or responder, determined by recurrence-free survival. First, features were extracted from each ROI using a convolutional neural network (CNN) pre-trained on non-medical images. Linear discriminant analysis classifiers were then trained on varying subsets of these features, based on their contrast time points of origin. Leave-one-out cross validation (by subject) was used to assess performance in the task of estimating probability of response to therapy, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) as the metric. The classifier trained on features from strictly the pre-contrast time point performed the best, with an AUC of 0.85 (SD = 0.033). The remaining classifiers resulted in AUCs ranging from 0.71 (SD = 0.028) to 0.82 (SD = 0.027). Overall, we found the pre-contrast time point to be the most effective at predicting response to therapy and that including additional contrast time points moderately reduces variance.

The application of feature selection to the development of Gaussian process models for percutaneous absorption.

PubMed

Lam, Lun Tak; Sun, Yi; Davey, Neil; Adams, Rod; Prapopoulou, Maria; Brown, Marc B; Moss, Gary P

2010-06-01

The aim was to employ Gaussian processes to assess mathematically the nature of a skin permeability dataset and to employ these methods, particularly feature selection, to determine the key physicochemical descriptors which exert the most significant influence on percutaneous absorption, and to compare such models with established existing models. Gaussian processes, including automatic relevance detection (GPRARD) methods, were employed to develop models of percutaneous absorption that identified key physicochemical descriptors of percutaneous absorption. Using MatLab software, the statistical performance of these models was compared with single linear networks (SLN) and quantitative structure-permeability relationships (QSPRs). Feature selection methods were used to examine in more detail the physicochemical parameters used in this study. A range of statistical measures to determine model quality were used. The inherently nonlinear nature of the skin data set was confirmed. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) methods yielded predictive models that offered statistically significant improvements over SLN and QSPR models with regard to predictivity (where the rank order was: GPR > SLN > QSPR). Feature selection analysis determined that the best GPR models were those that contained log P, melting point and the number of hydrogen bond donor groups as significant descriptors. Further statistical analysis also found that great synergy existed between certain parameters. It suggested that a number of the descriptors employed were effectively interchangeable, thus questioning the use of models where discrete variables are output, usually in the form of an equation. The use of a nonlinear GPR method produced models with significantly improved predictivity, compared with SLN or QSPR models. Feature selection methods were able to provide important mechanistic information. However, it was also shown that significant synergy existed between certain parameters, and as such it was possible to interchange certain descriptors (i.e. molecular weight and melting point) without incurring a loss of model quality. Such synergy suggested that a model constructed from discrete terms in an equation may not be the most appropriate way of representing mechanistic understandings of skin absorption.

Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines risk prediction model for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Vriesendorp, Pieter A; Schinkel, Arend F L; Liebregts, Max; Theuns, Dominic A M J; van Cleemput, Johan; Ten Cate, Folkert J; Willems, Rik; Michels, Michelle

2015-08-01

The recently released 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) use a new clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (SCD), based on the HCM Risk-SCD study. Our study is the first external and independent validation of this new risk prediction model. The study population consisted of a consecutive cohort of 706 patients with HCM without prior SCD event, from 2 tertiary referral centers. The primary end point was a composite of SCD and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD end point. The 5-year SCD risk was calculated using the HCM Risk-SCD formula. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics were calculated for the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and risk stratification methods of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology guidelines and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association guidelines. During follow-up of 7.7±5.3 years, SCD occurred in 42 (5.9%) of 706 patients (ages 49±16 years; 34% women). The C-statistic of the new model was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82; P=0.008), which performed significantly better than the conventional risk factor models based on the 2003 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.55: 95% CI, 0.47-0.63; P=0.3), and 2011 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.60: 95% CI, 0.50-0.70; P=0.07). The HCM Risk-SCD model improves the risk stratification of patients with HCM for primary prevention of SCD, and calculating an individual risk estimate contributes to the clinical decision-making process. Improved risk stratification is important for the decision making before implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation for the primary prevention of SCD. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Breast cancer survivorship: the role of perceived discrimination and sexual orientation.

PubMed

Jabson, Jennifer M; Donatelle, Rebecca J; Bowen, Deborah

2011-03-01

Breast cancer disproportionately affects sexual minority women (SMW) compared to heterosexual women and a small but growing literature indicates that SMW may have diminished survivorship outcomes; outcomes that are measurably and importantly different from heterosexual breast cancer survivors. However, it remains unknown how sexual orientation influences breast cancer survivorship outcomes such as quality of life. One possible route of influence is SMW's perceived discrimination in the health care setting. This cross-sectional study examines SMW perceptions of discrimination as one of the multiple facets of the breast cancer survivorship process. This study assessed SMW breast cancer survivor's perceptions of discrimination during their breast cancer treatment experience and secondarily, examined the role of this perceived discrimination on SMW's quality of life. Sixty-eight purposefully sampled sexual minority breast cancer survivors completed assessments of quality of life, perceived discrimination, perceived social support and perceived stress via an online survey. Statistical analyses point to perceived discrimination and perceived social support as important indicators for predicting SMW's quality of life. Future research on SMW's breast cancer survivorship should include measures of perceived discrimination.

Nearby Dwarf Stars: Duplicity, Binarity, and Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Brian D.; Hatkopf, William I.; Raghavan, Deepak

2008-02-01

Double stars have proven to be both a blessing and a curse for astronomers since their discovery over two centuries ago. They remain the only reliable source of masses, the most fundamental parameter defining stars. On the other hand, their sobriquet ``vermin of the sky'' is well-earned, due to the complications they present to both observers and theoreticians. These range from non-linear proper motions to stray light in detectors, to confusion in pointing of instruments due to non-symmetric point spread functions, to angular momentum conservation in multiple stars which results in binaries closer than allowed by evolution of two single stars. This proposal is an effort to address both their positive and negative aspects, through speckle interferometric observations, targeting ~1200 systems where useful information can be obtained with only a single additional observation. The proposed work will refine current statistics regarding duplicity (chance alignments of nearby point sources) and binarity (actual physical relationships), and improve the precisions and accuracies of stellar masses. Several targets support Raghavan's Ph.D. thesis, which is a comprehensive survey aimed at determining the multiplicity fraction among solar-type stars.

Nearby Dwarf Stars: Duplicity, Binarity, and Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Brian D.; Hartkopf, William I.; Raghavan, Deepak

2007-08-01

Double stars have proven to be both a blessing and a curse for astronomers since their discovery over two centuries ago. They remain the only reliable source of masses, the most fundamental parameter defining stars. On the other hand, their sobriquet ``vermin of the sky'' is well-earned, due to the complications they present to both observers and theoreticians. These range from non-linear proper motions to stray light in detectors, to confusion in pointing of instruments due to non-symmetric point spread functions, to angular momentum conservation in multiple stars which results in binaries closer than allowed by evolution of two single stars. This proposal is an effort to address both their positive and negative aspects, through speckle interferometric observations, targeting ~1200 systems where useful information can be obtained with only a single additional observation. The proposed work will refine current statistics regarding duplicity (chance alignments of nearby point sources) and binarity (actual physical relationships), and improve the precisions and accuracies of stellar masses. Several targets support Raghavan's Ph.D. thesis, which is a comprehensive survey aimed at determining the multiplicity fraction among solar-type stars.

Prediction of Therapy Tumor-Absorbed Dose Estimates in I-131 Radioimmunotherapy Using Tracer Data Via a Mixed-Model Fit to Time Activity

PubMed Central

Koral, Kenneth F.; Avram, Anca M.; Kaminski, Mark S.; Dewaraja, Yuni K.

2012-01-01

Abstract Background For individualized treatment planning in radioimmunotherapy (RIT), correlations must be established between tracer-predicted and therapy-delivered absorbed doses. The focus of this work was to investigate this correlation for tumors. Methods The study analyzed 57 tumors in 19 follicular lymphoma patients treated with I-131 tositumomab and imaged with SPECT/CT multiple times after tracer and therapy administrations. Instead of the typical least-squares fit to a single tumor's measured time-activity data, estimation was accomplished via a biexponential mixed model in which the curves from multiple subjects were jointly estimated. The tumor-absorbed dose estimates were determined by patient-specific Monte Carlo calculation. Results The mixed model gave realistic tumor time-activity fits that showed the expected uptake and clearance phases even with noisy data or missing time points. Correlation between tracer and therapy tumor-residence times (r=0.98; p<0.0001) and correlation between tracer-predicted and therapy-delivered mean tumor-absorbed doses (r=0.86; p<0.0001) were very high. The predicted and delivered absorbed doses were within±25% (or within±75 cGy) for 80% of tumors. Conclusions The mixed-model approach is feasible for fitting tumor time-activity data in RIT treatment planning when individual least-squares fitting is not possible due to inadequate sampling points. The good correlation between predicted and delivered tumor doses demonstrates the potential of using a pretherapy tracer study for tumor dosimetry-based treatment planning in RIT. PMID:22947086

Early prediction of olanzapine-induced weight gain for schizophrenia patients.

PubMed

Lin, Ching-Hua; Lin, Shih-Chi; Huang, Yu-Hui; Wang, Fu-Chiang; Huang, Chun-Jen

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether weight changes at week 2 or other factors predicted weight gain at week 6 for schizophrenia patients receiving olanzapine. This study was the secondary analysis of a six-week trial for 94 patients receiving olanzapine (5 mg/d) plus trifluoperazine (5 mg/d), or olanzapine (10 mg/d) alone. Patients were included in analysis only if they had completed the 6-week trial (per protocol analysis). Weight gain was defined as a 7% or greater increase of the patient's baseline weight. The receiver operating characteristic curve was employed to determine the optimal cutoff points of statistically significant predictors. Eleven of the 67 patients completing the 6-week trial were classified as weight gainers. Weight change at week 2 was the statistically significant predictor for ultimate weight gain at week 6. A weight change of 1.0 kg at week 2 appeared to be the optimal cutoff point, with a sensitivity of 0.92, a specificity of 0.75, and an AUC of 0.85. Using weight change at week 2 to predict weight gain at week 6 is favorable in terms of both specificity and sensitivity. Weight change of 1.0 kg or more at 2 weeks is a reliable predictor. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of outcome after surgery with disc prosthesis and rehabilitation in patients with chronic low back pain and degenerative disc: 2-year follow-up.

PubMed

Hellum, Christian; Johnsen, Lars Gunnar; Gjertsen, Øyvind; Berg, Linda; Neckelmann, Gesche; Grundnes, Oliver; Rossvoll, Ivar; Skouen, Jan Sture; Brox, Jens Ivar; Storheim, Kjersti

2012-04-01

A prospective study to evaluate whether certain baseline characteristics can predict outcome in patients treated with disc prosthesis or multidisciplinary rehabilitation. Secondary analysis of 154 patients with chronic low back pain (LBP) for at least 1 year and degenerative discs originally recruited for a randomized trial. Outcome measures were Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) dichotomized to < or ≥15 points improvement and whether subjects were working at 2-year follow-up. A multiple logistic regression analysis was used. In patients treated with disc prosthesis, long duration of LBP and high Fear-Avoidance Beliefs for work (FABQ-W) predicted worse ODI outcome [odds ratio (OR) = 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.2 and OR = 1.7, CI 1.2-2.4 for every 5 years or 5 points]. Modic type I or II predicted better ODI outcome (OR = 5.3, CI 1.1-25.3). In patients treated with rehabilitation, a high ODI, low emotional distress (HSCL-25), and no daily narcotics predicted better outcome for ODI (OR = 2.5, CI 1.4-4.5 for every 5 ODI points, OR = 2.1, CI 1.1-5.1 for every 0.5 HSCL points and OR = 23.6, CI 2.1-266.8 for no daily narcotics). Low FABQ-W and working at baseline predicted working at 2-year follow-up after both treatments (OR = 1.3, CI 1.0-1.5 for every 5 points and OR = 4.1, CI 1.2-13.2, respectively). Shorter duration of LBP, Modic type I or II changes and low FABQ-W were the best predictors of success after treatment with disc prosthesis, while high ODI, low distress and not using narcotics daily predicted better outcome of rehabilitation. Low FABQ-W and working predicted working at follow-up.

Multisite external validation of a risk prediction model for the diagnosis of blood stream infections in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia.

PubMed

Esbenshade, Adam J; Zhao, Zhiguo; Aftandilian, Catherine; Saab, Raya; Wattier, Rachel L; Beauchemin, Melissa; Miller, Tamara P; Wilkes, Jennifer J; Kelly, Michael J; Fernbach, Alison; Jeng, Michael; Schwartz, Cindy L; Dvorak, Christopher C; Shyr, Yu; Moons, Karl G M; Sulis, Maria-Luisa; Friedman, Debra L

2017-10-01

Pediatric oncology patients are at an increased risk of invasive bacterial infection due to immunosuppression. The risk of such infection in the absence of severe neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count ≥ 500/μL) is not well established and a validated prediction model for blood stream infection (BSI) risk offers clinical usefulness. A 6-site retrospective external validation was conducted using a previously published risk prediction model for BSI in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia: the Esbenshade/Vanderbilt (EsVan) model. A reduced model (EsVan2) excluding 2 less clinically reliable variables also was created using the initial EsVan model derivative cohort, and was validated using all 5 external validation cohorts. One data set was used only in sensitivity analyses due to missing some variables. From the 5 primary data sets, there were a total of 1197 febrile episodes and 76 episodes of bacteremia. The overall C statistic for predicting bacteremia was 0.695, with a calibration slope of 0.50 for the original model and a calibration slope of 1.0 when recalibration was applied to the model. The model performed better in predicting high-risk bacteremia (gram-negative or Staphylococcus aureus infection) versus BSI alone, with a C statistic of 0.801 and a calibration slope of 0.65. The EsVan2 model outperformed the EsVan model across data sets with a C statistic of 0.733 for predicting BSI and a C statistic of 0.841 for high-risk BSI. The results of this external validation demonstrated that the EsVan and EsVan2 models are able to predict BSI across multiple performance sites and, once validated and implemented prospectively, could assist in decision making in clinical practice. Cancer 2017;123:3781-3790. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Detector-Response Correction of Two-Dimensional γ -Ray Spectra from Neutron Capture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rusev, G.; Jandel, M.; Arnold, C. W.

2015-05-28

The neutron-capture reaction produces a large variety of γ-ray cascades with different γ-ray multiplicities. A measured spectral distribution of these cascades for each γ-ray multiplicity is of importance to applications and studies of γ-ray statistical properties. The DANCE array, a 4π ball of 160 BaF 2 detectors, is an ideal tool for measurement of neutron-capture γ-rays. The high granularity of DANCE enables measurements of high-multiplicity γ-ray cascades. The measured two-dimensional spectra (γ-ray energy, γ-ray multiplicity) have to be corrected for the DANCE detector response in order to compare them with predictions of the statistical model or use them in applications.more » The detector-response correction problem becomes more difficult for a 4π detection system than for a single detector. A trial and error approach and an iterative decomposition of γ-ray multiplets, have been successfully applied to the detector-response correction. As a result, applications of the decomposition methods are discussed for two-dimensional γ-ray spectra measured at DANCE from γ-ray sources and from the 10B(n, γ) and 113Cd(n, γ) reactions.« less

Modeling of Micro Deval abrasion loss based on some rock properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capik, Mehmet; Yilmaz, Ali Osman

2017-10-01

Aggregate is one of the most widely used construction material. The quality of the aggregate is determined using some testing methods. Among these methods, the Micro Deval Abrasion Loss (MDAL) test is commonly used for the determination of the quality and the abrasion resistance of aggregate. The main objective of this study is to develop models for the prediction of MDAL from rock properties, including uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, point load index, Schmidt rebound hardness, apparent porosity, void ratio Cerchar abrasivity index and Bohme abrasion test are examined. Additionally, the MDAL is modeled using simple regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis based on the rock properties. The study shows that the MDAL decreases with the increase of uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, point load index, Schmidt rebound hardness and Cerchar abrasivity index. It is also concluded that the MDAL increases with the increase of apparent porosity, void ratio and Bohme abrasion test. The modeling results show that the models based on Bohme abrasion test and L type Schmidt rebound hardness give the better forecasting performances for the MDAL. More models, including the uniaxial compressive strength, the apparent porosity and Cerchar abrasivity index, are developed for the rapid estimation of the MDAL of the rocks. The developed models were verified by statistical tests. Additionally, it can be stated that the proposed models can be used as a forecasting for aggregate quality.

The goal of ape pointing.

PubMed

Halina, Marta; Liebal, Katja; Tomasello, Michael

2018-01-01

Captive great apes regularly use pointing gestures in their interactions with humans. However, the precise function of this gesture is unknown. One possibility is that apes use pointing primarily to direct attention (as in "please look at that"); another is that they point mainly as an action request (such as "can you give that to me?"). We investigated these two possibilities here by examining how the looking behavior of recipients affects pointing in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus). Upon pointing to food, subjects were faced with a recipient who either looked at the indicated object (successful-look) or failed to look at the indicated object (failed-look). We predicted that, if apes point primarily to direct attention, subjects would spend more time pointing in the failed-look condition because the goal of their gesture had not been met. Alternatively, we expected that, if apes point primarily to request an object, subjects would not differ in their pointing behavior between the successful-look and failed-look conditions because these conditions differed only in the looking behavior of the recipient. We found that subjects did differ in their pointing behavior across the successful-look and failed-look conditions, but contrary to our prediction subjects spent more time pointing in the successful-look condition. These results suggest that apes are sensitive to the attentional states of gestural recipients, but their adjustments are aimed at multiple goals. We also found a greater number of individuals with a strong right-hand than left-hand preference for pointing.

Simultaneous estimation of cross-validation errors in least squares collocation applied for statistical testing and evaluation of the noise variance components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behnabian, Behzad; Mashhadi Hossainali, Masoud; Malekzadeh, Ahad

2018-02-01

The cross-validation technique is a popular method to assess and improve the quality of prediction by least squares collocation (LSC). We present a formula for direct estimation of the vector of cross-validation errors (CVEs) in LSC which is much faster than element-wise CVE computation. We show that a quadratic form of CVEs follows Chi-squared distribution. Furthermore, a posteriori noise variance factor is derived by the quadratic form of CVEs. In order to detect blunders in the observations, estimated standardized CVE is proposed as the test statistic which can be applied when noise variances are known or unknown. We use LSC together with the methods proposed in this research for interpolation of crustal subsidence in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that after detection and removing outliers, the root mean square (RMS) of CVEs and estimated noise standard deviation are reduced about 51 and 59%, respectively. In addition, RMS of LSC prediction error at data points and RMS of estimated noise of observations are decreased by 39 and 67%, respectively. However, RMS of LSC prediction error on a regular grid of interpolation points covering the area is only reduced about 4% which is a consequence of sparse distribution of data points for this case study. The influence of gross errors on LSC prediction results is also investigated by lower cutoff CVEs. It is indicated that after elimination of outliers, RMS of this type of errors is also reduced by 19.5% for a 5 km radius of vicinity. We propose a method using standardized CVEs for classification of dataset into three groups with presumed different noise variances. The noise variance components for each of the groups are estimated using restricted maximum-likelihood method via Fisher scoring technique. Finally, LSC assessment measures were computed for the estimated heterogeneous noise variance model and compared with those of the homogeneous model. The advantage of the proposed method is the reduction in estimated noise levels for those groups with the fewer number of noisy data points.

Body mass index as discriminator of the lean mass deficit and excess body fat in institutionalized elderly people.

PubMed

Barbosa, Maria Helena; Bolina, Alisson F; Luiz, Raíssa B; de Oliveira, Karoline F; Virtuoso, Jair S; Rodrigues, Rosalina A P; Silva, Larissa C; da Cunha, Daniel F; De Mattia, Ana Lúcia; Barichello, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify the discriminating criterion for body mass index (BMI) in the prediction of low fat free mass and high body fat percentage according to sex among older people. Observational analytical study with cross-sectional design was used for this study. All institutionalized older people from the city of Uberaba (Minas Gerais, Brazil) who fit within the inclusion and exclusion criteria were approached. Sixty-five institutionalized older people were evaluated after signing a Free and Informed Consent Form. Descriptive and inferential statistical procedures were employed for the analysis, using Student's t-test and multiple linear regression. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine the BMI (kg/m(2)) cut-off points. The study complied with all the ethical norms for research involving human beings. In comparing the anthropometric measurements obtained via bioimpedance, elder male had higher mean height and body water volume than females. However, women had higher mean triceps skinfold and fat free mass than men. The BMI cut-off points, as discriminators of low fat free mass percentage and high body fat percentage in women, were ≤22.4 kg/m(2) and >26.6 kg/m(2), respectively; while for men they were ≤19.2 kg/m(2) and >23.8 kg/m(2). The results of this study indicate the need for multicenter studies aimed at suggesting BMI cut-off points for institutionalized older people, taking into account specific sex characteristics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

PubMed Central

Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid should function as a teaching tool, which engages the user with each choice-point in the decision making process, rather than simply providing an “answer.” Based on these findings, we offer suggestions for tools and strategies that could be deployed in the research methods classroom to facilitate and strengthen students' statistical decision making abilities. PMID:26909064

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

PubMed

Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid should function as a teaching tool, which engages the user with each choice-point in the decision making process, rather than simply providing an "answer." Based on these findings, we offer suggestions for tools and strategies that could be deployed in the research methods classroom to facilitate and strengthen students' statistical decision making abilities.

A twelve-year profile of students' SAT scores, GPAs, and MCAT scores from a small university's premedical program.

PubMed

Montague, J R; Frei, J K

1993-04-01

To determine whether significant correlations existed among quantitative and qualitative predictors of students' academic success and quantitative outcomes of such success over a 12-year period in a small university's premedical program. A database was assembled from information on the 199 graduates who earned BS degrees in biology from Barry University's School of Natural and Health Sciences from 1980 through 1991. The quantitative variables were year of BS degree, total score on the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT), various measures of undergraduate grade-point averages (GPAs), and total score on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT); and the qualitative variables were minority (54% of the students) or majority status and transfer (about one-third of the students) or nontransfer status. The statistical methods were multiple analysis of variance and stepwise multiple regression. Statistically significant positive correlations were found among SAT total scores, final GPAs, biology GPAs versus nonbiology GPAs, and MCAT total scores. These correlations held for transfer versus nontransfer students and for minority versus majority students. Over the 12-year period there were significant fluctuations in mean MCAT scores. The students' SAT scores and GPAs proved to be statistically reliable predictors of MCAT scores, but the minority or majority status and the transfer or nontransfer status of the students were statistically insignificant.

Exact goodness-of-fit tests for Markov chains.

PubMed

Besag, J; Mondal, D

2013-06-01

Goodness-of-fit tests are useful in assessing whether a statistical model is consistent with available data. However, the usual χ² asymptotics often fail, either because of the paucity of the data or because a nonstandard test statistic is of interest. In this article, we describe exact goodness-of-fit tests for first- and higher order Markov chains, with particular attention given to time-reversible ones. The tests are obtained by conditioning on the sufficient statistics for the transition probabilities and are implemented by simple Monte Carlo sampling or by Markov chain Monte Carlo. They apply both to single and to multiple sequences and allow a free choice of test statistic. Three examples are given. The first concerns multiple sequences of dry and wet January days for the years 1948-1983 at Snoqualmie Falls, Washington State, and suggests that standard analysis may be misleading. The second one is for a four-state DNA sequence and lends support to the original conclusion that a second-order Markov chain provides an adequate fit to the data. The last one is six-state atomistic data arising in molecular conformational dynamics simulation of solvated alanine dipeptide and points to strong evidence against a first-order reversible Markov chain at 6 picosecond time steps. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Cosmological velocity correlations - Observations and model predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorski, Krzysztof M.; Davis, Marc; Strauss, Michael A.; White, Simon D. M.; Yahil, Amos

1989-01-01

By applying the present simple statistics for two-point cosmological peculiar velocity-correlation measurements to the actual data sets of the Local Supercluster spiral galaxy of Aaronson et al. (1982) and the elliptical galaxy sample of Burstein et al. (1987), as well as to the velocity field predicted by the distribution of IRAS galaxies, a coherence length of 1100-1600 km/sec is obtained. Coherence length is defined as that separation at which the correlations drop to half their zero-lag value. These results are compared with predictions from two models of large-scale structure formation: that of cold dark matter and that of baryon isocurvature proposed by Peebles (1980). N-body simulations of these models are performed to check the linear theory predictions and measure sampling fluctuations.

Prediction of change in protein unfolding rates upon point mutations in two state proteins.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Priyashree; Naganathan, Athi N; Gromiha, M Michael

2016-09-01

Studies on protein unfolding rates are limited and challenging due to the complexity of unfolding mechanism and the larger dynamic range of the experimental data. Though attempts have been made to predict unfolding rates using protein sequence-structure information there is no available method for predicting the unfolding rates of proteins upon specific point mutations. In this work, we have systematically analyzed a set of 790 single mutants and developed a robust method for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutations (Δlnku) in two-state proteins by combining amino acid properties and knowledge-based classification of mutants with multiple linear regression technique. We obtain a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.79/s and a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.71 between predicted unfolding rates and experimental observations using jack-knife test. We have developed a web server for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutation and it is freely available at https://www.iitm.ac.in/bioinfo/proteinunfolding/unfoldingrace.html. Prominent features that determine unfolding kinetics as well as plausible reasons for the observed outliers are also discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance outcomes of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in the National Basketball Association.

PubMed

Busfield, Benjamin T; Kharrazi, F Daniel; Starkey, Chad; Lombardo, Stephen J; Seegmiller, Jeffrey

2009-08-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of return to play and to quantify the effect on the basketball player's performance after surgical reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). Surgical injuries involving the ACL were queried for a 10-year period (1993-1994 season through 2004-2005 season) from the database maintained by the National Basketball Association (NBA). Standard statistical categories and player efficiency rating (PER), a measure that accounts for positive and negative playing statistics, were calculated to determine the impact of the injury on player performance relative to a matched comparison group. Over the study period, 31 NBA players had 32 ACL reconstructions. Two patients were excluded because of multiple ACL injuries, one was excluded because he never participated in league play, and another was the result of nonathletic activity. Of the 27 players in the study group, 6 (22%) did not return to NBA competition. Of the 21 players (78%) who did return to play, 4 (15%) had an increase in the preinjury PER, 5 (19%) remained within 1 point of the preinjury PER, and the PER decreased by more than 1 point after return to play in 12 (44%). Although decreases occurred in most of the statistical categories for players returning from ACL surgery, the number of games played, field goal percentage, and number of turnovers per game were the only categories with a statistically significant decrease. Players in the comparison group had a statistically significant increase in the PER over their careers, whereas the study group had a marked, though not statistically significant, increase in the PER in the season after reconstruction. After ACL reconstruction in 27 basketball players, 22% did not return to a sanctioned NBA game. For those returning to play, performance decreased by more than 1 PER point in 44% of the patients, although the changes were not statistically significant relative to the comparison group. Level IV, therapeutic case series.

An Adaptive Prediction-Based Approach to Lossless Compression of Floating-Point Volume Data.

PubMed

Fout, N; Ma, Kwan-Liu

2012-12-01

In this work, we address the problem of lossless compression of scientific and medical floating-point volume data. We propose two prediction-based compression methods that share a common framework, which consists of a switched prediction scheme wherein the best predictor out of a preset group of linear predictors is selected. Such a scheme is able to adapt to different datasets as well as to varying statistics within the data. The first method, called APE (Adaptive Polynomial Encoder), uses a family of structured interpolating polynomials for prediction, while the second method, which we refer to as ACE (Adaptive Combined Encoder), combines predictors from previous work with the polynomial predictors to yield a more flexible, powerful encoder that is able to effectively decorrelate a wide range of data. In addition, in order to facilitate efficient visualization of compressed data, our scheme provides an option to partition floating-point values in such a way as to provide a progressive representation. We compare our two compressors to existing state-of-the-art lossless floating-point compressors for scientific data, with our data suite including both computer simulations and observational measurements. The results demonstrate that our polynomial predictor, APE, is comparable to previous approaches in terms of speed but achieves better compression rates on average. ACE, our combined predictor, while somewhat slower, is able to achieve the best compression rate on all datasets, with significantly better rates on most of the datasets.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

A scoring algorithm for predicting the presence of adult asthma: a prospective derivation study.

PubMed

Tomita, Katsuyuki; Sano, Hiroyuki; Chiba, Yasutaka; Sato, Ryuji; Sano, Akiko; Nishiyama, Osamu; Iwanaga, Takashi; Higashimoto, Yuji; Haraguchi, Ryuta; Tohda, Yuji

2013-03-01

To predict the presence of asthma in adult patients with respiratory symptoms, we developed a scoring algorithm using clinical parameters. We prospectively analysed 566 adult outpatients who visited Kinki University Hospital for the first time with complaints of nonspecific respiratory symptoms. Asthma was comprehensively diagnosed by specialists using symptoms, signs, and objective tools including bronchodilator reversibility and/or the assessment of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to categorise patients and determine the accuracy of diagnosing asthma. A scoring algorithm using the symptom-sign score was developed, based on diurnal variation of symptoms (1 point), recurrent episodes (2 points), medical history of allergic diseases (1 point), and wheeze sound (2 points). A score of >3 had 35% sensitivity and 97% specificity for discriminating between patients with and without asthma and assigned a high probability of having asthma (accuracy 90%). A score of 1 or 2 points assigned intermediate probability (accuracy 68%). After providing additional data of forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity (FEV(1)/FVC) ratio <0.7, the post-test probability of having asthma was increased to 93%. A score of 0 points assigned low probability (accuracy 31%). After providing additional data of positive reversibility, the post-test probability of having asthma was increased to 88%. This pragmatic diagnostic algorithm is useful for predicting the presence of adult asthma and for determining the appropriate time for consultation with a pulmonologist.

Computational and empirical studies predict Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells as a biomarker for infection outcome

DOE PAGES

Marino, Simeone; Gideon, Hannah P.; Gong, Chang; ...

2016-04-11

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2-year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identifiedmore » T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. As a result, we emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.« less

Computational and empirical studies predict Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells as a biomarker for infection outcome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marino, Simeone; Gideon, Hannah P.; Gong, Chang

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2-year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identifiedmore » T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. As a result, we emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.« less

Critical parameters, thermodynamic functions, and shock Hugoniot of aluminum fluid at high energy density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaghloul, Mofreh R.

2018-03-01

We present estimates of the critical properties, thermodynamic functions, and principal shock Hugoniot of hot dense aluminum fluid as predicted from a chemical model for the equation-of-state of hot dense, partially ionized and partially degenerate plasma. The essential features of strongly coupled plasma of metal vapors, such as multiple ionization, Coulomb interactions among charged particles, partial degeneracy, and intensive short range hard core repulsion are taken into consideration. Internal partition functions of neutral, excited, and multiply ionized species are carefully evaluated in a statistical-mechanically consistent way. Results predicted from the present model are presented, analyzed and compared with available experimental measurements and other theoretical predictions in the literature.

On the dispute between Boltzmann and Gibbs entropy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buonsante, Pierfrancesco; Franzosi, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.franzosi@ino.it; Smerzi, Augusto

2016-12-15

The validity of the concept of negative temperature has been recently challenged by arguing that the Boltzmann entropy (that allows negative temperatures) is inconsistent from a mathematical and statistical point of view, whereas the Gibbs entropy (that does not admit negative temperatures) provides the correct definition for the microcanonical entropy. Here we prove that the Boltzmann entropy is thermodynamically and mathematically consistent. Analytical results on two systems supporting negative temperatures illustrate the scenario we propose. In addition we numerically study a lattice system to show that negative temperature equilibrium states are accessible and obey standard statistical mechanics prediction.

Early years of Computational Statistical Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mareschal, Michel

2018-05-01

Evidence that a model of hard spheres exhibits a first-order solid-fluid phase transition was provided in the late fifties by two new numerical techniques known as Monte Carlo and Molecular Dynamics. This result can be considered as the starting point of computational statistical mechanics: at the time, it was a confirmation of a counter-intuitive (and controversial) theoretical prediction by J. Kirkwood. It necessitated an intensive collaboration between the Los Alamos team, with Bill Wood developing the Monte Carlo approach, and the Livermore group, where Berni Alder was inventing Molecular Dynamics. This article tells how it happened.

Apparently abnormal Wechsler Memory Scale index score patterns in the normal population.

PubMed

Carrasco, Roman Marcus; Grups, Josefine; Evans, Brittney; Simco, Edward; Mittenberg, Wiley

2015-01-01

Interpretation of the Wechsler Memory Scale-Fourth Edition may involve examination of multiple memory index score contrasts and similar comparisons with Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition ability indexes. Standardization sample data suggest that 15-point differences between any specific pair of index scores are relatively uncommon in normal individuals, but these base rates refer to a comparison between a single pair of indexes rather than multiple simultaneous comparisons among indexes. This study provides normative data for the occurrence of multiple index score differences calculated by using Monte Carlo simulations and validated against standardization data. Differences of 15 points between any two memory indexes or between memory and ability indexes occurred in 60% and 48% of the normative sample, respectively. Wechsler index score discrepancies are normally common and therefore not clinically meaningful when numerous such comparisons are made. Explicit prior interpretive hypotheses are necessary to reduce the number of index comparisons and associated false-positive conclusions. Monte Carlo simulation accurately predicts these false-positive rates.

Diagnostic Value of Electrocardiogram in Predicting Exaggerated Blood Pressure Response to Exercise Stress Testing.

PubMed

Eshraghi, Ali; Ebdali, Reyhaneh Takalloo; Sajjadi, Seyed Sajed; Golnezhad, Reza

2016-08-01

It is believed that an exaggerated blood pressure response (EBPR) to exercise stress test is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events. It is also assumed that QT dispersion (QT-d), which was originally proposed to measure the spatial dispersion of ventricular recovery times, may have a relationship to cardiovascular events. The objective of this study was to examine the difference of changes in QT-d, Maxi-QT, Mini-QT, and QT-c (corrected QT interval) of the electrocardiogram in two groups of patients with exaggerated blood pressure responses (EBPR group) and normal responses (control group) to exercise testing. Also, the diagnostic value of each of these criteria in the prediction of EBPR was studied. This cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2015 to February 2016 on patients suspected of coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing exercise testing who had been referred to Ghaem and Imam Reza hospitals in Mashhad (Iran). All patients underwent a treadmill exercise test with the 12-lead ECG, which was optically scanned and digitized for analysis of QT-d, QT max, and QT min. Patients were divided into two groups of normal and EBPR to exercise testing. QT changes of ECG were compared between the two groups, and the diagnostic accuracy of QT variables for prediction of EBPR to exercise testing was studied. A multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), Pearson Chi-qquare, independent samples t-test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used as statistical methods in IBM SPSS version 19. Sixty patients (55% male) with a mean age of 50.48 ± 10.89 years were studied in two groups of normal (n=30) and exaggerated blood pressure response (n=30) to exercise testing. Maximum QT and QT dispersion were statistically different in individuals' exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise stress test (p < 0.05). The logistic regression analysis revealed that none of our parameters predicted the EBPR. The ROC curve showed that 50 and 345 milliseconds for QT dispersion and Maxi-QT were the optimal cut-off points for the prediction of EBPR. It seems that Maxi-QT and QT-d may be predictors of EBPR during exercise testing. Also, a significant difference in maxi-QT and QT-d was observed between two groups of patients with normal and EBPR during the exercise testing.

Prediction of protein secondary structure content for the twilight zone sequences.

PubMed

Homaeian, Leila; Kurgan, Lukasz A; Ruan, Jishou; Cios, Krzysztof J; Chen, Ke

2007-11-15

Secondary protein structure carries information about local structural arrangements, which include three major conformations: alpha-helices, beta-strands, and coils. Significant majority of successful methods for prediction of the secondary structure is based on multiple sequence alignment. However, multiple alignment fails to provide accurate results when a sequence comes from the twilight zone, that is, it is characterized by low (<30%) homology. To this end, we propose a novel method for prediction of secondary structure content through comprehensive sequence representation, called PSSC-core. The method uses a multiple linear regression model and introduces a comprehensive feature-based sequence representation to predict amount of helices and strands for sequences from the twilight zone. The PSSC-core method was tested and compared with two other state-of-the-art prediction methods on a set of 2187 twilight zone sequences. The results indicate that our method provides better predictions for both helix and strand content. The PSSC-core is shown to provide statistically significantly better results when compared with the competing methods, reducing the prediction error by 5-7% for helix and 7-9% for strand content predictions. The proposed feature-based sequence representation uses a comprehensive set of physicochemical properties that are custom-designed for each of the helix and strand content predictions. It includes composition and composition moment vectors, frequency of tetra-peptides associated with helical and strand conformations, various property-based groups like exchange groups, chemical groups of the side chains and hydrophobic group, auto-correlations based on hydrophobicity, side-chain masses, hydropathy, and conformational patterns for beta-sheets. The PSSC-core method provides an alternative for predicting the secondary structure content that can be used to validate and constrain results of other structure prediction methods. At the same time, it also provides useful insight into design of successful protein sequence representations that can be used in developing new methods related to prediction of different aspects of the secondary protein structure. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Toward a community ecology of landscapes: predicting multiple predator-prey interactions across geographic space.

PubMed

Schmitz, Oswald J; Miller, Jennifer R B; Trainor, Anne M; Abrahms, Briana

2017-09-01

Community ecology was traditionally an integrative science devoted to studying interactions between species and their abiotic environments in order to predict species' geographic distributions and abundances. Yet for philosophical and methodological reasons, it has become divided into two enterprises: one devoted to local experimentation on species interactions to predict community dynamics; the other devoted to statistical analyses of abiotic and biotic information to describe geographic distribution. Our goal here is to instigate thinking about ways to reconnect the two enterprises and thereby return to a tradition to do integrative science. We focus specifically on the community ecology of predators and prey, which is ripe for integration. This is because there is active, simultaneous interest in experimentally resolving the nature and strength of predator-prey interactions as well as explaining patterns across landscapes and seascapes. We begin by describing a conceptual theory rooted in classical analyses of non-spatial food web modules used to predict species interactions. We show how such modules can be extended to consideration of spatial context using the concept of habitat domain. Habitat domain describes the spatial extent of habitat space that predators and prey use while foraging, which differs from home range, the spatial extent used by an animal to meet all of its daily needs. This conceptual theory can be used to predict how different spatial relations of predators and prey could lead to different emergent multiple predator-prey interactions such as whether predator consumptive or non-consumptive effects should dominate, and whether intraguild predation, predator interference or predator complementarity are expected. We then review the literature on studies of large predator-prey interactions that make conclusions about the nature of multiple predator-prey interactions. This analysis reveals that while many studies provide sufficient information about predator or prey spatial locations, and thus meet necessary conditions of the habitat domain conceptual theory for drawing conclusions about the nature of the predator-prey interactions, several studies do not. We therefore elaborate how modern technology and statistical approaches for animal movement analysis could be used to test the conceptual theory, using experimental or quasi-experimental analyses at landscape scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Predicting tuberculosis risk in the foreign-born population of British Columbia, Canada: study protocol for a retrospective population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Ronald, Lisa A; Campbell, Jonathon R; Balshaw, Robert F; Roth, David Z; Romanowski, Kamila; Marra, Fawziah; Cook, Victoria J; Johnston, James C

2016-01-01

Introduction Improved understanding of risk factors for developing active tuberculosis (TB) will better inform decisions about diagnostic testing and treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) in migrant populations in low-incidence regions. We aim to examine TB risk factors among the foreign-born population in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and to create and validate a clinically relevant multivariate risk score to predict active TB. Methods and analysis This retrospective population-based cohort study will include all foreign-born individuals who acquired permanent resident status in Canada between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2013 and acquired healthcare coverage in BC at any point during this period. Multiple administrative databases and disease registries will be linked, including a National Immigration Database, BC Provincial Health Insurance Registration, physician billings, hospitalisations, drugs dispensed from community pharmacies, vital statistics, HIV testing and notifications, cancer, chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment, and all TB and LTBI testing and treatment data in BC. Extended proportional hazards regression will be used to estimate risk factors for TB and to create a prognostic TB risk score. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study has been obtained from the University of British Columbia Clinical Ethics Review Board. Once completed, study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. An online TB risk score calculator will also be created. PMID:27888179

The Voronoi Implicit Interface Method for computing multiphase physics

PubMed Central

Saye, Robert I.; Sethian, James A.

2011-01-01

We introduce a numerical framework, the Voronoi Implicit Interface Method for tracking multiple interacting and evolving regions (phases) whose motion is determined by complex physics (fluids, mechanics, elasticity, etc.), intricate jump conditions, internal constraints, and boundary conditions. The method works in two and three dimensions, handles tens of thousands of interfaces and separate phases, and easily and automatically handles multiple junctions, triple points, and quadruple points in two dimensions, as well as triple lines, etc., in higher dimensions. Topological changes occur naturally, with no surgery required. The method is first-order accurate at junction points/lines, and of arbitrarily high-order accuracy away from such degeneracies. The method uses a single function to describe all phases simultaneously, represented on a fixed Eulerian mesh. We test the method’s accuracy through convergence tests, and demonstrate its applications to geometric flows, accurate prediction of von Neumann’s law for multiphase curvature flow, and robustness under complex fluid flow with surface tension and large shearing forces. PMID:22106269

The Voronoi Implicit Interface Method for computing multiphase physics.

PubMed

Saye, Robert I; Sethian, James A

2011-12-06

We introduce a numerical framework, the Voronoi Implicit Interface Method for tracking multiple interacting and evolving regions (phases) whose motion is determined by complex physics (fluids, mechanics, elasticity, etc.), intricate jump conditions, internal constraints, and boundary conditions. The method works in two and three dimensions, handles tens of thousands of interfaces and separate phases, and easily and automatically handles multiple junctions, triple points, and quadruple points in two dimensions, as well as triple lines, etc., in higher dimensions. Topological changes occur naturally, with no surgery required. The method is first-order accurate at junction points/lines, and of arbitrarily high-order accuracy away from such degeneracies. The method uses a single function to describe all phases simultaneously, represented on a fixed Eulerian mesh. We test the method's accuracy through convergence tests, and demonstrate its applications to geometric flows, accurate prediction of von Neumann's law for multiphase curvature flow, and robustness under complex fluid flow with surface tension and large shearing forces.

The Voronoi Implicit Interface Method for computing multiphase physics

DOE PAGES

Saye, Robert I.; Sethian, James A.

2011-11-21

In this paper, we introduce a numerical framework, the Voronoi Implicit Interface Method for tracking multiple interacting and evolving regions (phases) whose motion is determined by complex physics (fluids, mechanics, elasticity, etc.), intricate jump conditions, internal constraints, and boundary conditions. The method works in two and three dimensions, handles tens of thousands of interfaces and separate phases, and easily and automatically handles multiple junctions, triple points, and quadruple points in two dimensions, as well as triple lines, etc., in higher dimensions. Topological changes occur naturally, with no surgery required. The method is first-order accurate at junction points/lines, and of arbitrarilymore » high-order accuracy away from such degeneracies. The method uses a single function to describe all phases simultaneously, represented on a fixed Eulerian mesh. Finally, we test the method’s accuracy through convergence tests, and demonstrate its applications to geometric flows, accurate prediction of von Neumann’s law for multiphase curvature flow, and robustness under complex fluid flow with surface tension and large shearing forces.« less

Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

2017-09-01

There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across multiple catchments and larger spatial scales.

Validation of the DRAGON Score in a Chinese Population to Predict Functional Outcome of Intravenous Thrombolysis-Treated Stroke Patients.

PubMed

Zhang, Xinmiao; Liao, Xiaoling; Wang, Chunjuan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Chunxue; Zhao, Xingquan; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yilong; Wang, Yongjun

2015-08-01

The DRAGON score predicts functional outcome of ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis. Our aim was to evaluate its utility in a Chinese stroke population. Patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis were prospectively registered in the Thrombolysis Implementation and Monitor of acute ischemic Stroke in China. We excluded patients with basilar artery occlusion and missing data, leaving 970 eligible patients. We calculated the DRAGON score, and the clinical outcome was measured by the modified Rankin Scale at 3 months. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the C statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient. The C statistic was .73 (.70-.76) for good outcome and .75 (.70-.79) for miserable outcome. Proportions of patients with good outcome were 94%, 83%, 70%, and 0% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 score points, respectively. Proportions of patients with miserable outcome were 0%, 3%, 9%, and 50% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 points, respectively. There was high correlation between predicted and observed probability of 3-month favorable and miserable outcome in the external validation cohort (Pearson correlation coefficient, .98 and .98, respectively, both P < .0001). The DRAGON score showed good performance to predict functional outcome after tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment in the Chinese population. This study demonstrated the accuracy and usability of the DRAGON score in the Chinese population in daily practice. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linear and non-linear bias: predictions versus measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, K.; Bel, J.; Gaztañaga, E.

2017-02-01

We study the linear and non-linear bias parameters which determine the mapping between the distributions of galaxies and the full matter density fields, comparing different measurements and predictions. Associating galaxies with dark matter haloes in the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l'Espai (MICE) Grand Challenge N-body simulation, we directly measure the bias parameters by comparing the smoothed density fluctuations of haloes and matter in the same region at different positions as a function of smoothing scale. Alternatively, we measure the bias parameters by matching the probability distributions of halo and matter density fluctuations, which can be applied to observations. These direct bias measurements are compared to corresponding measurements from two-point and different third-order correlations, as well as predictions from the peak-background model, which we presented in previous papers using the same data. We find an overall variation of the linear bias measurements and predictions of ˜5 per cent with respect to results from two-point correlations for different halo samples with masses between ˜1012and1015 h-1 M⊙ at the redshifts z = 0.0 and 0.5. Variations between the second- and third-order bias parameters from the different methods show larger variations, but with consistent trends in mass and redshift. The various bias measurements reveal a tight relation between the linear and the quadratic bias parameters, which is consistent with results from the literature based on simulations with different cosmologies. Such a universal relation might improve constraints on cosmological models, derived from second-order clustering statistics at small scales or higher order clustering statistics.

Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

PubMed

Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

2016-03-01

When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.

Monte-Carlo Method Application for Precising Meteor Velocity from TV Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozak, P.

2014-12-01

Monte-Carlo method (method of statistical trials) as an application for meteor observations processing was developed in author's Ph.D. thesis in 2005 and first used in his works in 2008. The idea of using the method consists in that if we generate random values of input data - equatorial coordinates of the meteor head in a sequence of TV frames - in accordance with their statistical distributions we get a possibility to plot the probability density distributions for all its kinematical parameters, and to obtain their mean values and dispersions. At that the theoretical possibility appears to precise the most important parameter - geocentric velocity of a meteor - which has the highest influence onto precision of meteor heliocentric orbit elements calculation. In classical approach the velocity vector was calculated in two stages: first we calculate the vector direction as a vector multiplication of vectors of poles of meteor trajectory big circles, calculated from two observational points. Then we calculated the absolute value of velocity independently from each observational point selecting any of them from some reasons as a final parameter. In the given method we propose to obtain a statistical distribution of velocity absolute value as an intersection of two distributions corresponding to velocity values obtained from different points. We suppose that such an approach has to substantially increase the precision of meteor velocity calculation and remove any subjective inaccuracies.

Modeling Menstrual Cycle Length and Variability at the Approach of Menopause Using Hierarchical Change Point Models

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaobi; Elliott, Michael R.; Harlow, Siobán D.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY As women approach menopause, the patterns of their menstrual cycle lengths change. To study these changes, we need to jointly model both the mean and variability of cycle length. Our proposed model incorporates separate mean and variance change points for each woman and a hierarchical model to link them together, along with regression components to include predictors of menopausal onset such as age at menarche and parity. Additional complexity arises from the fact that the calendar data have substantial missingness due to hormone use, surgery, and failure to report. We integrate multiple imputation and time-to event modeling in a Bayesian estimation framework to deal with different forms of the missingness. Posterior predictive model checks are applied to evaluate the model fit. Our method successfully models patterns of women’s menstrual cycle trajectories throughout their late reproductive life and identifies change points for mean and variability of segment length, providing insight into the menopausal process. More generally, our model points the way toward increasing use of joint mean-variance models to predict health outcomes and better understand disease processes. PMID:24729638