The Keynesian Diagram: A Cross to Bear?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleck, Juergen

In elementary economics courses students are often introduced to the basic concepts of macroeconomics through very simplified static models, and the concept of a macroeconomic equilibrium is generally explained with the help of an aggregate demand/aggregate supply (AD/AS) model and an income/expenditure model (via the Keynesian cross diagram).…

A Simple Treatment of the Liquidity Trap for Intermediate Macroeconomics Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

2014-01-01

Several leading undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics textbooks now include a simple reduced-form New Keynesian model of short-run dynamics (alongside the IS-LM model). Unfortunately, there is no accompanying description of how the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates affects the model. In this article, the authors show how the…

A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Roberto

2015-01-01

The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samuels, Jon Devin

2012-01-01

The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

The Loanable-Funds Approach to Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleisher, Belton; Kopecky, Kenneth J.

1987-01-01

Argues for replacing the liquidity-preference approach with the loanable-funds approach in introductory macroeconomics courses. Claims the loanable-funds model allows students to see more clearly relationships between such economic concepts as fiscal policy and interest rates. Illustrates how this model can be used to describe the movement from…

Dollarization In El Salvador And Ecuador: A Model Worth Following

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

Since this thesis approaches dollarization from a macroeconomic viewpoint, additional research should focus on how dollarization has affected various...positive macroeconomic outcomes. Since this thesis approaches dollarization from a macroeconomic viewpoint, additional research should focus on how... addition , I want to thank my beautiful wife for being by my side and helping me through this process; I would not have been able to do it without you

Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil.

PubMed

Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira de

2010-04-01

To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenner's hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

A goal programming approach for a joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies: a methodological proposal and an application to the Spanish economy.

PubMed

André, Francisco J; Cardenete, M Alejandro; Romero, Carlos

2009-05-01

The economic policy needs to pay increasingly more attention to the environmental issues, which requires the development of methodologies able to incorporate environmental, as well as macroeconomic, goals in the design of public policies. Starting from this observation, this article proposes a methodology based upon a Simonian satisficing logic made operational with the help of goal programming (GP) models, to address the joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies. The methodology is applied to the Spanish economy, where a joint policy is elicited, taking into consideration macroeconomic goals (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, public deficit) and environmental goals (CO(2), NO( x ) and SO( x ) emissions) within the context of a computable general equilibrium model. The results show how the government can "fine-tune" its policy according to different criteria using GP models. The resulting policies aggregate the environmental and the economic goals in different ways: maximum aggregate performance, maximum balance and a lexicographic hierarchy of the goals.

Interactive Macroeconomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Guilmi, Corrado; Gallegati, Mauro; Landini, Simone

2017-04-01

Preface; List of tables; List of figures, 1. Introduction; Part I. Methodological Notes and Tools: 2. The state space notion; 3. The master equation; Part II. Applications to HIA Based Models: 4. Financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics I: heterogeneity and interaction; 5. Financial fragility and macroeconomic Dynamics II: learning; Part III. Conclusions: 6. Conclusive remarks; Part IV. Appendices and Complements: Appendix A: Complements to Chapter 3; Appendix B: Solving the ME to solve the ABM; Appendix C: Specifying transition rates; Index.

The BMW Model: A New Framework for Teaching Monetary Economics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bofinger, Peter; Mayer, Eric; Wollmershauser, Timo

2006-01-01

Although the IS/LM-AS/AD model is still the central tool of macroeconomic teaching in most macroeconomic textbooks, it has been criticized by several economists. Colander (1995) demonstrated that the framework is logically inconsistent, Romer (2000) showed that it is unable to deal with a monetary policy that uses the interest rate as its…

Economic dynamics with financial fragility and mean-field interaction: A model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Guilmi, C.; Gallegati, M.; Landini, S.

2008-06-01

Following Aoki’s statistical mechanics methodology [Masanao Aoki, New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 1996; Masanao Aoki, Modeling Aggregate Behaviour and Fluctuations in Economics, Cambridge University Press, 2002; Masanao Aoki, and Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Reconstructing Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press, 2006], we provide some insights into the well-known works of [Bruce Greenwald, Joseph Stiglitz, Macroeconomic models with equity and credit rationing, in: R. Hubbard (Ed.), Information, Capital Markets and Investment, Chicago University Press, Chicago, 1990; Bruce Greenwald, Joseph Stiglitz, Financial markets imperfections and business cycles, Quarterly journal of Economics (1993)]. Specifically, we reach analytically a closed form solution of their models overcoming the aggregation problem. The key idea is to represent the economy as an evolving complex system, composed by heterogeneous interacting agents, that can be partitioned into a space of macroscopic states. This meso level of aggregation permits to adopt mean-field interaction modeling and master equation techniques.

Flatness-based control and Kalman filtering for a continuous-time macroeconomic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Busawon, K.; Binns, R.

2017-11-01

The article proposes flatness-based control for a nonlinear macro-economic model of the UK economy. The differential flatness properties of the model are proven. This enables to introduce a transformation (diffeomorphism) of the system's state variables and to express the state-space description of the model in the linear canonical (Brunowsky) form in which both the feedback control and the state estimation problem can be solved. For the linearized equivalent model of the macroeconomic system, stabilizing feedback control can be achieved using pole placement methods. Moreover, to implement stabilizing feedback control of the system by measuring only a subset of its state vector elements the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used. This consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized equivalent model of the financial system and of an inverse transformation that is based again on differential flatness theory. The asymptotic stability properties of the control scheme are confirmed.

'Time is costly': modelling the macroeconomic impact of scaling-up antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ventelou, Bruno; Moatti, Jean-Paul; Videau, Yann; Kazatchkine, Michel

2008-01-02

Macroeconomic policy requirements may limit the capacity of national and international policy-makers to allocate sufficient resources for scaling-up access to HIV care and treatment in developing countries. An endogenous growth model, which takes into account the evolution of society's human capital, was used to assess the macroeconomic impact of policies aimed at scaling-up access to HIV/AIDS treatment in six African countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe). The model results showed that scaling-up access to treatment in the affected population would limit gross domestic product losses due to AIDS although differently from country to country. In our simulated scenarios of access to antiretroviral therapy, only 10.3% of the AIDS shock is counterbalanced in Zimbabwe, against 85.2% in Angola and even 100.0% in Benin (a total recovery). For four out of the six countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast), the macro-economic gains of scaling-up would become potentially superior to its associated costs in 2010. Despite the variability of HIV prevalence rates between countries, macro-economic estimates strongly suggest that a massive investment in scaling-up access to HIV treatment may efficiently counteract the detrimental long-term impact of the HIV pandemic on economic growth, to the extent that the AIDS shock has not already driven the economy beyond an irreversible 'no-development epidemiological trap'.

Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2016 (AEO2016). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

Multisectoral Strategies for Advancing Girls' Education: Principles and Practice. SAGE Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Howard

This paper describes issues, experiences, and strategies used in developing successful multisectoral partnerships to advance girls' education, using Guinea and Morocco as examples. Chapter 1 introduces the issue, discussing barriers to girls' education and describing the multisectoral response to interrelated barriers. Chapter 2 defines the…

75 FR 56509 - Multi-Sector Trade Mission to Nigeria

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-16

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Multi-Sector Trade Mission to Nigeria...: Multi-Sector Trade Mission to Nigeria, March 8-10, 2011 I. Mission Description The United States... Mission to Nigeria March 8-10, 2011, to help U.S. firms find business partners and sell equipment and...

Complexity dynamics and Hopf bifurcation analysis based on the first Lyapunov coefficient about 3D IS-LM macroeconomics system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo; Zhan, Xueli

2017-04-01

Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad, this paper improves the three-dimensional IS-LM model in macroeconomics, analyzes the equilibrium point of the system and stability conditions, focuses on the parameters and complex dynamic characteristics when Hopf bifurcation occurs in the three-dimensional IS-LM macroeconomics system. In order to analyze the stability of limit cycles when Hopf bifurcation occurs, this paper further introduces the first Lyapunov coefficient to judge the limit cycles, i.e. from a practical view of the business cycle. Numerical simulation results show that within the range of most of the parameters, the limit cycle of 3D IS-LM macroeconomics is stable, that is, the business cycle is stable; with the increase of the parameters, limit cycles becomes unstable, and the value range of the parameters in this situation is small. The research results of this paper have good guide significance for the analysis of macroeconomics system.

Reflections on modern macroeconomics: Can we travel along a safer road?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaffeo, E.; Catalano, M.; Clementi, F.; Delli Gatti, D.; Gallegati, M.; Russo, A.

2007-08-01

In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program-currently dominant among the profession-aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.

Complexity and Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Kind of Fractional-Order IS-LM Macroeconomic System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo

On the basis of our previous research, we deepen and complete a kind of macroeconomics IS-LM model with fractional-order calculus theory, which is a good reflection on the memory characteristics of economic variables, we also focus on the influence of the variables on the real system, and improve the analysis capabilities of the traditional economic models to suit the actual macroeconomic environment. The conditions of Hopf bifurcation in fractional-order system models are briefly demonstrated, and the fractional order when Hopf bifurcation occurs is calculated, showing the inherent complex dynamic characteristics of the system. With numerical simulation, bifurcation, strange attractor, limit cycle, waveform and other complex dynamic characteristics are given; and the order condition is obtained with respect to time. We find that the system order has an important influence on the running state of the system. The system has a periodic motion when the order meets the conditions of Hopf bifurcation; the fractional-order system gradually stabilizes with the change of the order and parameters while the corresponding integer-order system diverges. This study has certain significance to policy-making about macroeconomic regulation and control.

A Community Health Record: Improving Health Through Multisector Collaboration, Information Sharing, and Technology.

PubMed

King, Raymond J; Garrett, Nedra; Kriseman, Jeffrey; Crum, Melvin; Rafalski, Edward M; Sweat, David; Frazier, Renee; Schearer, Sue; Cutts, Teresa

2016-09-08

We present a framework for developing a community health record to bring stakeholders, information, and technology together to collectively improve the health of a community. It is both social and technical in nature and presents an iterative and participatory process for achieving multisector collaboration and information sharing. It proposes a methodology and infrastructure for bringing multisector stakeholders and their information together to inform, target, monitor, and evaluate community health initiatives. The community health record is defined as both the proposed framework and a tool or system for integrating and transforming multisector data into actionable information. It is informed by the electronic health record, personal health record, and County Health Ranking systems but differs in its social complexity, communal ownership, and provision of information to multisector partners at scales ranging from address to zip code.

A Community Health Record: Improving Health Through Multisector Collaboration, Information Sharing, and Technology

PubMed Central

Garrett, Nedra; Kriseman, Jeffrey; Crum, Melvin; Rafalski, Edward M.; Sweat, David; Frazier, Renee; Schearer, Sue; Cutts, Teresa

2016-01-01

We present a framework for developing a community health record to bring stakeholders, information, and technology together to collectively improve the health of a community. It is both social and technical in nature and presents an iterative and participatory process for achieving multisector collaboration and information sharing. It proposes a methodology and infrastructure for bringing multisector stakeholders and their information together to inform, target, monitor, and evaluate community health initiatives. The community health record is defined as both the proposed framework and a tool or system for integrating and transforming multisector data into actionable information. It is informed by the electronic health record, personal health record, and County Health Ranking systems but differs in its social complexity, communal ownership, and provision of information to multisector partners at scales ranging from address to zip code. PMID:27609300

Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

2009-08-01

Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

A dynamic factor model of the evaluation of the financial crisis in Turkey.

PubMed

Sezgin, F; Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Factor analysis has been widely used in economics and finance in situations where a relatively large number of variables are believed to be driven by few common causes of variation. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) which is a combination of factor and time series analysis, involves autocorrelation matrices calculated from multivariate time series. Dynamic factor models were traditionally used to construct economic indicators, macroeconomic analysis, business cycles and forecasting. In recent years, dynamic factor models have become more popular in empirical macroeconomics. They have more advantages than other methods in various respects. Factor models can for instance cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in regression-based analysis. In this study, a model which determines the effect of the global crisis on Turkey is proposed. The main aim of the paper is to analyze how several macroeconomic quantities show an alteration before the evolution of the crisis and to decide if a crisis can be forecasted or not.

Strengthening the evidence and action on multi-sectoral partnerships in public health: an action research initiative

PubMed Central

Willis, C. D.; Greene, J. K.; Abramowicz, A.; Riley, B. L.

2016-01-01

Abstract Introduction: The Public Health Agency of Canada’s Multi-sectoral Partnerships Initiative, administered by the Centre for Chronic Disease Prevention (CCDP), brings together diverse partners to design, implement and advance innovative approaches for improving population health. This article describes the development and initial priorities of an action research project (a learning and improvement strategy) that aims to facilitate continuous improvement of the CCDP’s partnership initiative and contribute to the evidence on multi-sectoral partnerships. Methods: The learning and improvement strategy for the CCDP’s multi-sectoral partnership initiative was informed by (1) consultations with CCDP staff and senior management, and (2) a review of conceptual frameworks to do with multi-sectoral partnerships. Consultations explored the development of the multi-sectoral initiative, barriers and facilitators to success, and markers of effectiveness. Published and grey literature was reviewed using a systematic search strategy with findings synthesized using a narrative approach. Results: Consultations and the review highlighted the importance of understanding partnership impacts, developing a shared vision, implementing a shared measurement system and creating opportunities for knowledge exchange. With that in mind, we propose a six-component learning and improvement strategy that involves (1) prioritizing learning needs, (2) mapping needs to evidence, (3) using relevant data-collection methods, (4) analyzing and synthesizing data, (5) feeding data back to CCDP staff and teams and (6) taking action. Initial learning needs include investigating partnership reach and the unanticipated effects of multi-sectoral partnerships for individuals, groups, organizations or communities. Conclusion: While the CCDP is the primary audience for the learning and improvement strategy, it may prove useful for a range of audiences, including other government departments and external organizations interested in capturing and sharing new knowledge generated from multi-sectoral partnerships. PMID:27284702

Job satisfaction in the European union: the role of macroeconomic, personal, and job-related factors.

PubMed

Augner, Christoph

2015-03-01

Job satisfaction is influenced by many factors. Most of them are attributed to personality or company features. Little research has been conducted identifying the relationship of job satisfaction with macroeconomic parameters. We used data collected by European Commission (Eurostat, Eurofound) and World Health Organization (WHO) for personal (eg, subjective health, physical activity), company (eg, career advancement perspectives, negative health effects of work), or macroeconomic parameters (eg, Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate) on state level. Correlation analysis and a stepwise linear regression model were obtained. Gross domestic product (GDP) was the best predictor for job satisfaction across the European Union member states ahead of good career perspectives, and WHO-5 score (depressive symptoms). Beside personal, job-related, and organizational factors that influence job satisfaction, the macroeconomic perspective has to be considered, too.

Projections of health care expenditures as a share of the GDP: actuarial and macroeconomic approaches.

PubMed Central

Warshawsky, M J

1994-01-01

STUDY QUESTION. Can the steady increases in health care expenditures as a share of GDP projected by widely cited actuarial models be rationalized by a macroeconomic model with sensible parameters and specification? DATA SOURCES. National Income and Product Accounts, and Social Security and Health Care Financing Administration are the data sources used in parameters estimates. STUDY DESIGN. Health care expenditures as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are projected using two methodological approaches--actuarial and macroeconomic--and under various assumptions. The general equilibrium macroeconomic approach has the advantage of allowing an investigation of the causes of growth in the health care sector and its consequences for the overall economy. DATA COLLECTION METHODS. Simulations are used. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Both models unanimously project a continued increase in the ratio of health care expenditures to GDP. Under the most conservative assumptions, that is, robust economic growth, improved demographic trends, or a significant moderation in the rate of health care price inflation, the health care sector will consume more than a quarter of national output by 2065. Under other (perhaps more realistic) assumptions, including a continuation of current trends, both approaches predict that health care expenditures will comprise between a third and a half of national output. In the macroeconomic model, the increasing use of capital goods in the health care sector explains the observed rise in relative prices. Moreover, this "capital deepening" implies that a relatively modest fraction of the labor force is employed in health care and that the rest of the economy is increasingly starved for capital, resulting in a declining standard of living. PMID:8063567

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

PubMed

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

2013-01-01

Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

We care don't we? Social workers, the profession and HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Hall, Nigel

2007-01-01

The HIV/AIDS epidemic has impacted all levels of society from the individual to the macro-economic. The continuing spread of infection around the world means that traditional methods of care and support are put under extreme pressure and many families lose their capacity to cope. Social workers are involved in providing care, counseling and support to those affected, and in developing programmes and other interventions to prevent the spread of the disease. Prevention and behaviour change are vital, but access to treatment is an ethical imperative, particularly in developing countries where the epidemic is most prevalent. Social work is a profession uniquely situated to demonstrate leadership in multi-sectoral collaboration in responding to this pandemic. Consequently this paper briefly reviews the scale and current nature of the epidemic and then considers how social workers can help build more compassionate policies at an international level. Social workers can help to create awareness of the negative effects of poverty, tackle gender inequity, help build more effective coalitions and partnerships, and work with other concerned groups and organisations to end stigma and discrimination. Using case examples the paper considers how social workers can help develop caring strategies that improve the lives of those living with HIV and AIDS.

Simulation System for Making Political and Macroeconomical Decisions and Its Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vnukov, A. A.; Blinov, A. E.

2018-01-01

Object of this research are macroeconomic indicators, which are important to descript economic situation in a country. Purpose of this work is to identify these indicators and to analyze how the state can affect these figures with available instruments. Here was constructed a model where the targets can be calculated from raw data - tools in the field of economic policy. Software code that implements all relations among the indicators and allows to analyze with high accuracy, sufficiently successful economic policies and with the help of some tools, you can achieve better results. This model can be used to forecast macroeconomic scenarios. The corresponding values of the objective (outcome) variables are set as a consequence of the configuration data of the previous period, subject to external influences and depend on the instrumental variables. The results may be useful in economical predictions. The results were successfully checked on real scenarios of Russian, European and Chinese economics. Moreover, the results can be applied in the field of education. Program is available to use as “economical game” the educational process of the University, in which you can virtually implement various macroeconomic scenarios, draw conclusions about their success.

Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) User Manual: A ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities (SHC) Research Program is developing methodologies, resources, and tools to assist community members and local decision makers in implementing policy choices that facilitate sustainable approaches in managing their resources affecting the built environment, natural environment, and human health. In order to assist communities and decision makers in implementing sustainable practices, EPA is developing computer-based systems including models, databases, web tools, and web browsers to help communities decide upon approaches that support their desired outcomes. Communities need access to resources that will allow them to achieve their sustainability objectives through intelligent decisions in four key sustainability areas: • Land Use • Buildings and Infrastructure • Transportation • Materials Management (i.e., Municipal Solid Waste [MSW] processing and disposal) The Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) is designed to support sustainable decision-making for communities, local and regional planners, and policy and decision makers. Document is an EPA Technical Report, which is the user manual for the Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) tool. The purpose of the document is to provide basic guidance on use of the tool for users

Multi-Sectoral Action for Addressing Social Determinants of Noncommunicable Diseases and Mainstreaming Health Promotion in National Health Programmes in India

PubMed Central

Arora, Monika; Chauhan, Kavita; John, Shoba; Mukhopadhyay, Alok

2011-01-01

Major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) share common behavioral risk factors and deep-rooted social determinants. India needs to address its growing NCD burden through health promoting partnerships, policies, and programs. High-level political commitment, inter-sectoral coordination, and community mobilization are important in developing a successful, national, multi-sectoral program for the prevention and control of NCDs. The World Health Organization's “Action Plan for a Global Strategy for Prevention and Control of NCDs” calls for a comprehensive plan involving a whole-of-Government approach. Inter-sectoral coordination will need to start at the planning stage and continue to the implementation, evaluation of interventions, and enactment of public policies. An efficient multi-sectoral mechanism is also crucial at the stage of monitoring, evaluating enforcement of policies, and analyzing impact of multi-sectoral initiatives on reducing NCD burden in the country. This paper presents a critical appraisal of social determinants influencing NCDs, in the Indian context, and how multi-sectoral action can effectively address such challenges through mainstreaming health promotion into national health and development programs. India, with its wide socio-cultural, economic, and geographical diversities, poses several unique challenges in addressing NCDs. On the other hand, the jurisdiction States have over health, presents multiple opportunities to address health from the local perspective, while working on the national framework around multi-sectoral aspects of NCDs. PMID:22628911

Dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, Ooi Po; Arsad, Zainudin; Huen, Tan Bee

2014-07-01

Knowledge on linkages between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are essential in the formulation of effective monetary policy. This study investigates the relationship between stock prices in Malaysia (KLCI) with four selected macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IPI), quasi money supply (MS2), real exchange rate (REXR) and 3-month Treasury bill (TRB). The variables used in this study are monthly data from 1996 to 2012. Vector error correction (VEC) model and Kalman filter (KF) technique are utilized to assess the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock prices. The results from the cointegration test revealed that the stock prices and macroeconomic variables are cointegrated. Different from the constant estimate from the static VEC model, the KF estimates noticeably exhibit time-varying attributes over the entire sample period. The varying estimates of the impact coefficients should be better reflect the changing economic environment. Surprisingly, IPI is negatively related to the KLCI with the estimates of the impact slowly increase and become positive in recent years. TRB is found to be generally negatively related to the KLCI with the impact fluctuating along the constant estimate of the VEC model. The KF estimates for REXR and MS2 show a mixture of positive and negative impact on the KLCI. The coefficients of error correction term (ECT) are negative in majority of the sample period, signifying the stock prices responded to stabilize any short term deviation in the economic system. The findings from the KF model indicate that any implication that is based on the usual static model may lead to authorities implementing less appropriate policies.

The Childhood Obesity Research Demonstration project: a team approach for supporting a multisite, multisector intervention.

PubMed

Williams, Nancy; Dooyema, Carrie A; Foltz, Jennifer L; Belay, Brook; Blanck, Heidi M

2015-02-01

Comprehensive multisector, multilevel approaches are needed to address childhood obesity. This article introduces the structure of a multidisciplinary team approach used to support and guide the multisite, multisector interventions implemented as part of the Childhood Obesity Research Demonstration (CORD) project. This article will describe the function, roles, and lessons learned from the CDC-CORD approach to project management. The CORD project works across multisectors and multilevels in three demonstration communities. Working with principal investigators and their research teams who are engaging multiple stakeholder groups, including community organizations, schools and child care centers, health departments, and healthcare providers, can be a complex endeavor. To best support the community-based research project, scientific and programmatic expertise in a wide range of areas was required. The team was configured based on the skill sets needed to interact with the various levels of staff working with the project. By thoughtful development of the team and processes, an efficient system for supporting the multisite, multisector intervention project sites was developed. The team approach will be formally evaluated at the end of the project period.

Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.

PubMed

Chow, Yee Peng; Muhammad, Junaina; Amin Noordin, Bany Ariffin; Cheng, Fan Fah

2018-02-01

This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004-2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome), domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines), natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia) and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore).

Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

PubMed

Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

2014-11-13

The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.

PubMed

Khan, Jahangir; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Jansson, Bjarne

2004-11-01

We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability. We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending. A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings. Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.

Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation.

PubMed

Cardona, Omar D; Ordaz, Mario G; Marulanda, Mabel C; Carreño, Martha L; Barbat, Alex H

2010-10-01

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision-making in disaster risk reduction. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

The U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-12

4 For further discussion of the standard model of open economy macroeconomics , see N. Gregory Mankiw , Principles of Economics...index.htm#bop. 7 For a fuller discussion of this analytical framework, see N. Gregory Mankiw , Principles of Economics (Fort Worth, TX: The Dryden Press...record 6.1% in 2006. The size of the U.S. trade deficit is ultimately rooted in macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad. U.S. saving falls short

Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility

PubMed Central

Wolkinger, Brigitte; Weisz, Ulli; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Delcour, Jennifer; Griebler, Robert; Mittelbach, Bernhard; Maier, Philipp; Reifeltshammer, Raphael

2018-01-01

There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action. PMID:29710784

Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility.

PubMed

Wolkinger, Brigitte; Haas, Willi; Bachner, Gabriel; Weisz, Ulli; Steininger, Karl; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Delcour, Jennifer; Griebler, Robert; Mittelbach, Bernhard; Maier, Philipp; Reifeltshammer, Raphael

2018-04-28

There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.

Economic policy optimization based on both one stochastic model and the parametric control theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashimov, Abdykappar; Borovskiy, Yuriy; Onalbekov, Mukhit

2016-06-01

A nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions is developed to describe two interacting national economies in the environment of the rest of the world. Parameters of nonlinear model are estimated based on its log-linearization by the Bayesian approach. The nonlinear model is verified by retroprognosis, estimation of stability indicators of mappings specified by the model, and estimation the degree of coincidence for results of internal and external shocks' effects on macroeconomic indicators on the basis of the estimated nonlinear model and its log-linearization. On the base of the nonlinear model, the parametric control problems of economic growth and volatility of macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan are formulated and solved for two exchange rate regimes (free floating and managed floating exchange rates)

Micro-foundations for macroeconomics: New set-up based on statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

2016-12-01

Modern macroeconomics is built on "micro foundations." Namely, optimization of micro agent such as consumer and firm is explicitly analyzed in model. Toward this goal, standard model presumes "the representative" consumer/firm, and analyzes its behavior in detail. However, the macroeconomy consists of 107 consumers and 106 firms. For the purpose of analyzing such macro system, it is meaningless to pursue the micro behavior in detail. In this respect, there is no essential difference between economics and physics. The method of statistical physics can be usefully applied to the macroeconomy, and provides Keynesian economics with correct micro-foundations.

Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Senna, Viviane; Souza, Adriano Mendonça

2016-11-01

Since the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the ;Bolsa Família; Program - PBF and the Continuous Cash Benefit - Continuous Cash Benefit - BPC. This research's main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model - VAR and Error Correction Vector - VEC. The conclusion, was that there is a meaningful relationship between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in changing the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world.

PubMed

Piontek, Franziska; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A M; Clark, Douglas B; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Colón González, Felipe de Jesus; Flörke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D; Gosling, Simon N; Hemming, Deborah; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lomas, Mark R; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Mengel, Matthias; Morse, Andrew; Neumann, Kathleen; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Ruane, Alex C; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Tessler, Zachary D; Tompkins, Adrian M; Warszawski, Lila; Wisser, Dominik; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2014-03-04

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse;

MEDISE: A macroeconomic model for energy planning in Costa Rica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Booth, S.R.; Leiva, C.L.

This report describes the development and results of MEDISE, an econometric macroeconomic model for energy planning in Costa Rica. The model is a simultaneous system of 19 equations that was constructed using ENERPLAN, an energy planning tool developed by the United Nations for use in developing countries. The equations were estimated using regression analysis on a data time series of 1966 to 1984. ENERPLAN's model solution package was used to obtain forecasts of 19 economic variables from 1985 to 2005. the modeling effort was conducted jointly by Los Alamos Central American Energy and Resources Project (CAP) personnel and the Energymore » Sector Directorate of Costa Rica during 1986. The CAP was funded by the US Agency for International Development. 6 refs., 3 figs., 11 tabs.« less

Testing the Grossman model of medical spending determinants with macroeconomic panel data.

PubMed

Hartwig, Jochen; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

2018-02-16

Michael Grossman's human capital model of the demand for health has been argued to be one of the major achievements in theoretical health economics. Attempts to test this model empirically have been sparse, however, and with mixed results. These attempts so far relied on using-mostly cross-sectional-micro data from household surveys. For the first time in the literature, we bring in macroeconomic panel data for 29 OECD countries over the period 1970-2010 to test the model. To check the robustness of the results for the determinants of medical spending identified by the model, we include additional covariates in an extreme bounds analysis (EBA) framework. The preferred model specifications (including the robust covariates) do not lend much empirical support to the Grossman model. This is in line with the mixed results of earlier studies.

The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Implications for Teaching Intermediate Macroeconomics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froyen, Richard T.

1996-01-01

Traces the development of macroeconomic theory from John Maynard Keynes to modern endogenous growth theory. Maintains that a combination of interest in growth theory and related policy questions will play a prominent role in macroeconomics in the future. Recommends narrowing the gap between graduate school and undergraduate economics instruction.…

Changes in health indicators related to health promotion and microcredit programs in the Dominican Republic.

PubMed

Dohn, Anita L; Chávez, Andrea; Dohn, Michael N; Saturria, Luis; Pimentel, Carlos

2004-03-01

To assess the impact of health promotion programs and microcredit programs on three communities in the Dominican Republic. One community had only the health promotion program, one community had only the microcredit program, and one community had both a health promotion program and a microcredit program. This pilot project examined the hypothesis that the largest changes in 11 health indicators that were studied would be in the community with both a health promotion program and a microcredit program, that there would be intermediate changes in the community with only a health promotion program, and that the smallest changes would be in the community with only a microcredit program. The health promotion programs used community volunteers to address two major concerns: (1) the prevalent causes of mortality among children under 5 years of age and (2) women's health (specifically breast and cervical cancer screening). The microcredit program made small loans to individuals to start or expand small businesses. Outcome measures were based on comparisons for 11 health indicators from baseline community surveys (27 households surveyed in each of the three communities, done in December 2000 and January 2001) and from follow-up surveys (also 27 households surveyed in each of the three communities, in June and July 2002, after the health promotion program had been operating for about 13 months). Households were randomly chosen during both the baseline and follow-up surveys, without regard to their involvement in the microcredit or health promotion programs. The health indicators improved in all three communities. However, the degree of change was different among the communities (P < 0.001). The community with parallel microcredit and health promotion programs had the largest changes for 10 of the 11 health indicators. Multisector development is known to be important on a macroeconomic scale. The results of this pilot project support the view that multisector development is also important on a microeconomic level, given that the parallel microcredit and health promotion programs resulted in greater change in the measured health indicators than either program alone. As far as we authors know, this is the first published study to quantify changes in health indicators related to parallel health promotion and microcredit programs as compared to control communities with only a health promotion program or a microcredit program.

Toward greater inclusion: lessons from Peru in confronting challenges of multi-sector collaboration.

PubMed

Buffardi, Anne L; Cabello, Robinson; Garcia, Patricia J

2012-09-01

Despite widespread enthusiasm for broader participation in health policy and programming, little is known about the ways in which multi-sector groups address the challenges that arise in pursuing this goal. Based on the experience of Peru's National Multi-sector Health Coordinating Body (CONAMUSA), this article characterizes these challenges and identifies organizational strategies the group has adopted to overcome them. Comprising nine government ministries, nongovernmental organizations, academia, religious institutions, and international cooperation agencies, CONAMUSA has faced three principal challenges: 1) selecting representatives, 2) balancing membership and leadership across sectors, and 3) negotiating role transition and conflict. In response, the group has instituted a rotation system for formal leadership responsibiliti es, and professionalized management functions; created electoral systems for civil society; and developed conflict of interest guidelines. This case study offers lessons for other countries trying to configure multi-sector groups, and for donors who mandate their creation, tempering unbridled idealism toward inclusive participation with a dose of healthy realism and practical adaptation.

The Feasibility of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) as an Assessment and Quality Assurance Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matorera, D.; Fraser, W. J.

2016-01-01

Business schools are globally often seen as structured, purpose-driven, multi-sector and multi-perspective organisations. This article is based on the response of a graduate school to an innovative industrial Quality Function Deployment-based model (QFD), which was to be adopted initially in a Master's degree programme for quality assurance…

Modeling foreign exchange market activity around macroeconomic news: Hawkes-process approach.

PubMed

Rambaldi, Marcello; Pennesi, Paris; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

We present a Hawkes-model approach to the foreign exchange market in which the high-frequency price dynamics is affected by a self-exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is able to capture the increase of trading activity after the news, both when the news has a sizable effect on volatility and when this effect is negligible, either because the news in not important or because the announcement is in line with the forecast by analysts. We extend the model by considering noncausal effects, due to the fact that the existence of the news (but not its content) is known by the market before the announcement.

Modeling foreign exchange market activity around macroeconomic news: Hawkes-process approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rambaldi, Marcello; Pennesi, Paris; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

We present a Hawkes-model approach to the foreign exchange market in which the high-frequency price dynamics is affected by a self-exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is able to capture the increase of trading activity after the news, both when the news has a sizable effect on volatility and when this effect is negligible, either because the news in not important or because the announcement is in line with the forecast by analysts. We extend the model by considering noncausal effects, due to the fact that the existence of the news (but not its content) is known by the market before the announcement.

Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Susanna D.

As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santini, Danilo J.; Poyer, David A.

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession,more » real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag models that considered effects of oil price changes, but did not account for effects of oil price levels. Gasoline prices were rarely examined. The tests conducted in this report evaluate gasoline instead of oil.« less

Further results on the macroeconomic effects of AIDS: the dualistic, labor-surplus economy.

PubMed

Cuddington, J T

1993-09-01

Analyses by Cuddington in 1993 and forthcoming work from Cuddington and Hancock model the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic using a modified Solow growth model. This single-sector framework rests upon the assumption that labor and capital are always efficiently allocated throughout the economy with neither market failures nor policy-induced distortions resulting in resource misallocation. Economies in low-income developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, however, are not operating at capacity. Impact models based upon the potential growth path of economies will therefore significantly overstate the effect of an AIDS epidemic. The author thus incorporates the presence of underemployment and dual labor markets to redress the limitations of these earlier impact models. The dual-economy simulations of the economic impact of AIDS using Tanzanian data suggest that the macroeconomic consequences of the epidemic are of the same order of magnitude as those obtained using a single-sector, full-employment model: gross domestic product (GDP) is 15-25% smaller by 2010 than it would have been without AIDS, and per capita GDP is 0-10% smaller. Output lost from AIDS in the dual-economy framework is approximately the same as the output gain achievable through policies designed to increase labor market flexibility. Findings suggest that serious economic reform in economies fraught with AIDS may lessen the negative economic effects of the epidemic.

Nonlinear complex dynamics and Keynesian rigidity: A short introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jovero, Edgardo

2005-09-01

The topic of this paper is to show that the greater acceptance and intense use of complex nonlinear dynamics in macroeconomics makes sense only within the neoKeynesian tradition. An example is presented regarding the behavior of an open-economy two-sector growth model endowed with Keynesian rigidity. The Keynesian view that structural instability globally exists in the aggregate economy is put forward, and therefore the need arises for policy to alleviate this instability in the form of dampened fluctuations is presented as an alternative view for macroeconomic theorizing.

Dynamic Angular Control Of Thermal Therapy With Stationary Multi-Sectored Tubular Ultrasound Applicators Under MR Temperature Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinsey, Adam M.; Diederich, Chris J.; Nau, William H.; Ross, Anthony B.; Butts Pauly, Kim; Rieke, Viola; Sommer, Graham

2006-05-01

Multi-sectored ultrasound heating applicators with dynamic angular and longitudinal control of heating profiles are being investigated for the thermal treatment of tumors in sites such as prostate, uterus, and brain. Multi-sectored tubular ultrasound transducers with independent sector power control were incorporated into interstitial and transurethral applicators and provided dynamic angular control of a heating pattern without requiring device manipulation during treatment. Acoustic beam measurements of each applicator type demonstrated a 35-40° acoustic dead zone between each independent sector, with negligible mechanical or electrical coupling. Despite the acoustic dead zone between sectors, simulations and experiments under MR temperature (MRT) monitoring showed that the variance from the maximum lesion radius (scalloping) with all elements activated on a transducer was minimal and did not affect conformal heating of a target area. A biothermal model with a multi-point controller was used to adjust the applied power and treatment time of individual transducer segments as the tissue temperature changed in simulations of thermal lesions with both interstitial and transurethral applicators. Transurethral ultrasound applicators for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) treatment with either three or four sectors conformed a thermal dose to a simulated target area in the angular and radial dimensions. The simulated treatment was controlled to a maximum temperature of 85°C, and had a maximum duration of 5 min when power was turned off as the 52°C temperature contour reach a predetermined control point for each sector in the tissue. Experiments conducted with multi-sectored applicators under MRT monitoring showed thermal ablation and hyperthermia treatments had little or no border `scalloping', conformed to a pretreatment target area, and correlated very well with the simulated thermal lesions. The radial penetration of the heat treatments in tissue with interstitial (1.5-1.8 mm OD transducer) and transurethral (2.5-4.0 mm OD transducer) applicators was at least 1.5 cm and 2.0 cm, respectively, for a treatment duration of 10 min. Angular control of thermal ablation and hyperthermia therapy often relies upon non-adjustable angular power deposition patterns and/or mechanical manipulation of the heating device. The multi-sectored ultrasound applicators developed in this study provide dynamic control of the angular heating distribution during treatment without device manipulation and maintain previously reported heating penetration and spatial control characteristics of similar ultrasound devices.

Understanding and Improving Multi-Sectoral Partnerships for Chronic Disease Prevention: Blending Conceptual and Practical Insights

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willis, Cameron; Greene, Julie; Riley, Barbara

2017-01-01

Inter-organisational partnerships are widely used approaches in public health and chronic disease prevention (CDP), and may include organisations from different sectors, such as research-policy-practice sectors, inter-governmental sectors, or public and private sectors. While multiple conceptual frameworks related to multi-sectoral partnerships…

Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, N. J.; Ribeiro, Marcelo B.

2013-05-01

This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin’s (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (˜99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (˜1%). In line with Goodwin’s original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.

Cardiac imaging with multi-sector data acquisition in volumetric CT: variation of effective temporal resolution and its potential clinical consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Xiangyang; Hsieh, Jiang; Taha, Basel H.; Vass, Melissa L.; Seamans, John L.; Okerlund, Darin R.

2009-02-01

With increasing longitudinal detector dimension available in diagnostic volumetric CT, step-and-shoot scan is becoming popular for cardiac imaging. In comparison to helical scan, step-and-shoot scan decouples patient table movement from cardiac gating/triggering, which facilitates the cardiac imaging via multi-sector data acquisition, as well as the administration of inter-cycle heart beat variation (arrhythmia) and radiation dose efficiency. Ideally, a multi-sector data acquisition can improve temporal resolution at a factor the same as the number of sectors (best scenario). In reality, however, the effective temporal resolution is jointly determined by gantry rotation speed and patient heart beat rate, which may significantly lower than the ideal or no improvement (worst scenario). Hence, it is clinically relevant to investigate the behavior of effective temporal resolution in cardiac imaging with multi-sector data acquisition. In this study, a 5-second cine scan of a porcine heart, which cascades 6 porcine cardiac cycles, is acquired. In addition to theoretical analysis and motion phantom study, the clinical consequences due to the effective temporal resolution variation are evaluated qualitative or quantitatively. By employing a 2-sector image reconstruction strategy, a total of 15 (the permutation of P(6, 2)) cases between the best and worst scenarios are studied, providing informative guidance for the design and optimization of CT cardiac imaging in volumetric CT with multi-sector data acquisition.

Nonlinearities in Behavioral Macroeconomics.

PubMed

Gomes, Orlando

2017-07-01

This article undertakes a journey across the literature on behavioral macroeconomics, with attention concentrated on the nonlinearities that the behavioral approach typically suggests or implies. The emphasis is placed on thinking the macro economy as a living organism, composed of many interacting parts, each one having a will of its own, which is in sharp contrast with the mechanism of the orthodox view (well represented by the neoclassical or new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - DSGE - model). The paper advocates that a thorough understanding of individual behavior in collective contexts is the only possible avenue to further explore macroeconomic phenomena and the often observed 'anomalies' that the benchmark DSGE macro framework is unable to explain or justify. After a reflection on the role of behavioral traits as a fundamental component of a new way of thinking the economy, the article proceeds with a debate on some of the most relevant frameworks in the literature that somehow link macro behavior and nonlinearities; covered subjects include macro models with disequilibrium rules, agent-based models that highlight interaction and complexity, evolutionary switching frameworks, and inattention based decision problems. These subjects have, as a fundamental point in common, the use of behavioral elements to transform existing interpretations of the economic reality, making it more evident how irregular fluctuations emerge and unfold on the aggregate.

Negotiating multisectoral evidence: a qualitative study of knowledge exchange at the intersection of transport and public health.

PubMed

Guell, Cornelia; Mackett, Roger; Ogilvie, David

2017-01-05

For the prevention and control of chronic diseases, two strategies are frequently highlighted: that public health should be evidence based, and that it should develop a multisectoral approach. At the end of a natural experimental study of the health impacts of new transport infrastructure, we took the opportunity of a knowledge exchange forum to explore how stakeholders assessed, negotiated and intended to apply multisectoral evidence in policy and practice at the intersection of transport and health. We aimed to better understand the challenges they faced in knowledge exchange, as well as their everyday experiences with working in multisectoral remits. In 2015, we conducted participant observation during an interactive event with 41 stakeholders from national and local government, the third sector and academia in Cambridge, UK. Formal and informal interactions between stakeholders were recorded in observational field notes. We also conducted 18 semistructured interviews reflecting on the event and on knowledge exchange in general. We found that stakeholders negotiated a variety of challenges. First, stakeholders had to negotiate relatively new formal and informal multisectoral remits; and how to reconcile the differing expectations of transport specialists, who tended to emphasise the importance of precedence in guiding action, and health specialists' concern for the rigour and synthesis of research evidence. Second, research in this field involved complex study designs, and often produced evidence with uncertain transferability to other settings. Third, health outcomes of transport schemes had political traction and were used strategically but not easily translated into cost-benefit ratios. Finally, knowledge exchange meant multiple directions of influence. Stakeholders were concerned that researchers did not always have skills to translate their findings into understandable evidence, and some stakeholders would welcome opportunities to influence research agendas. This case study of stakeholders' experiences indicates that multisectoral research, practice and policymaking requires the ability and capacity to locate, understand and communicate complex evidence from a variety of disciplines, and integrate different types of evidence into clear business cases beyond sectoral boundaries.

Feasibility of multi-sector policy measures that create activity-friendly environments for children: results of a Delphi study.

PubMed

Aarts, Marie-Jeanne; Schuit, Albertine J; van de Goor, Ien Am; van Oers, Hans Am

2011-12-15

Although multi-sector policy is a promising strategy to create environments that stimulate physical activity among children, little is known about the feasibility of such a multi-sector policy approach. The aims of this study were: to identify a set of tangible (multi-sector) policy measures at the local level that address environmental characteristics related to physical activity among children; and to assess the feasibility of these measures, as perceived by local policy makers. In four Dutch municipalities, a Delphi study was conducted among local policy makers of different policy sectors (public health, sports, youth and education, spatial planning/public space, traffic and transportation, and safety). In the first Delphi round, respondents generated a list of possible policy measures addressing three environmental correlates of physical activity among children (social cohesion, accessibility of facilities, and traffic safety). In the second Delphi round, policy makers weighted different feasibility aspects (political feasibility, cultural/community acceptability, technical feasibility, cost feasibility, and legal feasibility) and assessed the feasibility of the policy measures derived from the first round. The third Delphi round was aimed at reaching consensus by feedback of group results. Finally, one overall feasibility score was calculated for each policy measure. Cultural/community acceptability, political feasibility, and cost feasibility were considered most important feasibility aspects. The Delphi studies yielded 16 feasible policy measures aimed at physical and social environmental correlates of physical activity among children. Less drastic policy measures were considered more feasible, whereas environmental policy measures were considered less feasible. This study showed that the Delphi technique can be a useful tool in reaching consensus about feasible multi-sector policy measures. The study yielded several feasible policy measures aimed at physical and social environmental correlates of physical activity among children and can assist local policy makers in designing multi-sector policies aimed at an activity-friendly environment for children.

Engaging in School-Led Multisectoral Collaboration: Implications to Agroforestry Promotion in the Philippine Uplands

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landicho, Leila D.; Cabahug, Rowena D.; De Luna, Catherine C.

2009-01-01

The Agroforestry Support Program for Empowering Communities Towards Self-Reliance (ASPECTS) was conceived to develop a model of two-stage approach in agroforestry promotion by capacitating the upland communities to establish community-managed agroforestry extension services, while strengthening the agroforestry education programs of the three…

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamacher, K.

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production.

PubMed

Hamacher, K

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers-modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property-the time horizon of production planning-is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function-thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Social and Economic Implications of Noncommunicable diseases in India

PubMed Central

Thakur, JS; Prinja, Shankar; Garg, Charu C; Mendis, Shanthi; Menabde, Nata

2011-01-01

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major public health problem in India accounting for 62% of the total burden of foregone DALYs and 53% of total deaths. In this paper, we review the social and economic impact of NCDs in India. We outline this impact at household, health system and the macroeconomic level. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) figure at the top among the leading ten causes of adult (25–69 years) deaths in India. The effects of NCDs are inequitable with evidence of reversal in social gradient of risk factors and greater financial implications for the poorer households in India. Out-of-pocket expenditure associated with the acute and long-term effects of NCDs is high resulting in catastrophic health expenditure for the households. Study in India showed that about 25% of families with a member with CVD and 50% with cancer experience catastrophic expenditure and 10% and 25%, respectively, are driven to poverty. The odds of incurring catastrophic hospitalization expenditure were nearly 160% higher with cancer than the odds of incurring catastrophic spending when hospitalization was due to a communicable disease. These high numbers also pose significant challenge for the health system for providing treatment, care and support. The proportion of hospitalizations and outpatient consultations as a result of NCDs rose from 32% to 40% and 22% to 35%, respectively, within a decade from 1995 to 2004. In macroeconomic term, most of the estimates suggest that the NCDs in India account for an economic burden in the range of 5–10% of GDP, which is significant and slowing down GDP thus hampering development. While India is simultaneously experiencing several disease burdens due to old and new infections, nutritional deficiencies, chronic diseases, and injuries, individual interventions for clinical care are unlikely to be affordable on a large scale. While it is clear that “treating our way out” of the NCDs may not be the efficient way, it has to be strongly supplemented with population-based services aimed at health promotion and action on social determinants of health along with individual services. Since health sector alone cannot deal with the “chronic emergency” of NCDs, a multi-sectoral action addressing the social determinants and strengthening of health systems for universal coverage to population and individual services is required. PMID:22628905

Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-03-31

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-01-01

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises. PMID:21483794

Prediction of Malaysian monthly GDP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei; Yeing, Pan Wei

2015-12-01

The paper attempts to use a method based on multivariate power-normal distribution to predict the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product next month. Letting r(t) be the vector consisting of the month-t values on m selected macroeconomic variables, and GDP, we model the month-(t+1) GDP to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1),…,r(t-l+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a [(m+1)l+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. The 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution may be used to form an out-of sample prediction interval. This interval together with the mean of the conditional distribution may be used to predict the month-(t+1) GDP. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), estimated coverage probability and average length of the prediction interval are used as the criterions for selecting the suitable lag value l-1 and the subset from a pool of 17 macroeconomic variables. It is found that the relatively better models would be those of which 2 ≤ l ≤ 3, and involving one or two of the macroeconomic variables given by Market Indicative Yield, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Import Trade.

Web Instruction with the LBO Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agarwal, Rajshree; Day, A. Edward

2000-01-01

Presents a Web site that utilizes the Learning-by-Objective (LBO) model that integrates Internet tools for knowledge transmission, communication, and assessment of learning. Explains that the LBO model has been used in creating micro and macroeconomic course Web sites with WebCT software. (CMK)

Pathways to policy: Lessons learned in multisectoral collaboration for physical activity and built environment policy development from the Coalitions Linking Action and Science for Prevention (CLASP) initiative.

PubMed

Politis, Christopher E; Mowat, David L; Keen, Deb

2017-06-16

The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer funded 12 large-scale knowledge to action cancer and chronic disease prevention projects between 2009 and 2016 through the Coalitions Linking Action and Science for Prevention (CLASP) initiative. Two projects, Healthy Canada by Design (HCBD) and Children's Mobility, Health and Happiness (CMHH), developed policies to address physical activity and the built environment through a multisectoral approach. A qualitative analysis involving a review of 183 knowledge products and 8 key informant interviews was conducted to understand what policy changes occurred, and the underlying critical success factors, through these projects. Both projects worked at the local level to change physical activity and built environment policy in 203 sites, including municipalities and schools. Both projects brought multisectoral expertise (e.g., public health, land use planning, transportation engineering, education, etc.) together to inform the development of local healthy public policy in the areas of land use, transportation and school travel planning. Through the qualitative analysis of the knowledge products and key informant interviews, 163 policies were attributed to HCBD and CMHH work. Fourteen "pathways to policy" were identified as critical success factors facilitating and accelerating the development and implementation of physical activity and built environment policy. Of the 14 pathways to policy, 8 had a focus on multisectoral collaboration. The lessons learned from the CLASP experience could support enhanced multisectoral collaborations to accelerate the development and implementation of physical activity and built environment policy in new jurisdictions across Canada and internationally.

An Economic Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1970 TO 1990: Revised Report of Results and Findings (2002)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The analyses covered in this report examine the consequences of these costs and benefits for overall economic performance and welfare. They are based on the application of a multi-sector, inter-temporal general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy.

What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Araujo, Pedro; O'Sullivan, Roisin; Simpson, Nicole B.

2013-01-01

A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach…

Economics: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences. Volume 2: Introduction to Macroeconomics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schenk, Robert E.

This curriculum guide emphasizes that economics is a method of thought or analysis and highlights the teaching of macroeconomic concepts. Definitions of economics, economic actions and their results, individual and group relationships, and supply and demand principles are reviewed. Macroeconomic concepts that are introduced include: (1) economic…

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

PubMed

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

Entropy, recycling and macroeconomics of water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2014-05-01

We propose a macroeconomic model for water quantity and quality supply multipliers derived by water recycling (Karakatsanis et al. 2013). Macroeconomic models that incorporate natural resource conservation have become increasingly important (European Commission et al. 2012). In addition, as an estimated 80% of globally used freshwater is not reused (United Nations 2012), under increasing population trends, water recycling becomes a solution of high priority. Recycling of water resources creates two major conservation effects: (1) conservation of water in reservoirs and aquifers and (2) conservation of ecosystem carrying capacity due to wastewater flux reduction. Statistical distribution properties of the recycling efficiencies -on both water quantity and quality- for each sector are of vital economic importance. Uncertainty and complexity of water reuse in sectors are statistically quantified by entropy. High entropy of recycling efficiency values signifies greater efficiency dispersion; which -in turn- may indicate the need for additional infrastructure for the statistical distribution's both shifting and concentration towards higher efficiencies that lead to higher supply multipliers. Keywords: Entropy, water recycling, water supply multipliers, conservation, recycling efficiencies, macroeconomics References 1. European Commission (EC), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations (UN) and World Bank (2012), System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework (White cover publication), United Nations Statistics Division 2. Karakatsanis, G., N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis and A. Efstratiades (2013), Entropy and reliability of water use via a statistical approach of scarcity, 5th EGU Leonardo Conference - Hydrofractals 2013 - STAHY '13, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics 3. United Nations (UN) (2012), World Water Development Report 4, UNESCO Publishing

Is the gap between micro- and macroeconomic assessments in health care well understood? The case of vaccination and potential remedies

PubMed Central

Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P.

2014-01-01

Vaccination is an established intervention that reduces the burden and prevents the spread of infectious diseases. Investing in vaccination is known to offer a wide range of economic and intangible benefits that can potentiate gains for the individual and for society. The discipline of economics provides us with microeconomic and macroeconomic methods for evaluating the economic gains attributed to health status changes. However, the observed gap between micro and macro estimates attributed to health presents challenges to our understanding of health-related productivity changes and, consequently, economic benefits. The gap suggests that the manner in which health-related productive output is quantified in microeconomic models might not adequately reflect the broader economic benefit. We propose that there is a transitional domain that links the micro- and macroeconomic improvement attributed to health status changes. Currently available economic evaluation methods typically omit these consequences, however; they may be adjusted to integrate these transitional consequences. In practical terms, this may give rise to multipliers to apply toward indirect costs to account for the broader macroeconomic benefits linked to changes in health status. In addition, it is possible to consider that different medical conditions and health care interventions may pose different multiplying effects, suggesting that the manner in which resources are allocated within health services gives rise to variation in the amount of the micro–macro gap. An interesting way to move forward in integrating the micro- and macro-level assessment might be by integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as part of the evaluation framework, as was recently performed for pandemic flu and malaria vaccination. PMID:27226842

Is the gap between micro- and macroeconomic assessments in health care well understood? The case of vaccination and potential remedies.

PubMed

Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P

2014-01-01

Vaccination is an established intervention that reduces the burden and prevents the spread of infectious diseases. Investing in vaccination is known to offer a wide range of economic and intangible benefits that can potentiate gains for the individual and for society. The discipline of economics provides us with microeconomic and macroeconomic methods for evaluating the economic gains attributed to health status changes. However, the observed gap between micro and macro estimates attributed to health presents challenges to our understanding of health-related productivity changes and, consequently, economic benefits. The gap suggests that the manner in which health-related productive output is quantified in microeconomic models might not adequately reflect the broader economic benefit. We propose that there is a transitional domain that links the micro- and macroeconomic improvement attributed to health status changes. Currently available economic evaluation methods typically omit these consequences, however; they may be adjusted to integrate these transitional consequences. In practical terms, this may give rise to multipliers to apply toward indirect costs to account for the broader macroeconomic benefits linked to changes in health status. In addition, it is possible to consider that different medical conditions and health care interventions may pose different multiplying effects, suggesting that the manner in which resources are allocated within health services gives rise to variation in the amount of the micro-macro gap. An interesting way to move forward in integrating the micro- and macro-level assessment might be by integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as part of the evaluation framework, as was recently performed for pandemic flu and malaria vaccination.

The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model.

PubMed

Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2012-01-01

Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.

A kinetic approach to some quasi-linear laws of macroeconomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.

2002-11-01

Some previous works have presented the data on wealth and income distributions in developed countries and have found that the great majority of population is described by an exponential distribution, which results in idea that the kinetic approach could be adequate to describe this empirical evidence. The aim of our paper is to extend this framework by developing a systematic kinetic approach of the socio-economic systems and to explain how linear laws, modelling correlations between macroeconomic variables, may arise in this context. Firstly we construct the Boltzmann kinetic equation for an idealised system composed by many individuals (workers, officers, business men, etc.), each of them getting a certain income and spending money for their needs. To each individual a certain time variable amount of money is associated this meaning him/her phase space coordinate. In this way the exponential distribution of money in a closed economy is explicitly found. The extension of this result, including states near the equilibrium, give us the possibility to take into account the regular increase of the total amount of money, according to the modern economic theories. The Kubo-Green-Onsager linear response theory leads us to a set of linear equations between some macroeconomic variables. Finally, the validity of such laws is discussed in relation with the time reversal symmetry and is tested empirically using some macroeconomic time series.

The effect of macroeconomic conditions on the care decisions of the employed.

PubMed

Hughes, Danny R; Khaliq, Amir A

2014-02-01

Medical care utilization has been found to be affected indirectly by changes in economic conditions through associated changes in employment or insurance status. However, if individuals interpret external macroeconomic conditions as employment risk, they may alter decisions to seek care even if they remain both employed and insured. To examine the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and the medical care usage of Americans who are both employed and insured. Restricting the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1995 to 2008 to respondents whose employment status and insurance status did not change, we employed a fixed-effect Poisson model to examine the association between state average annual unemployment rates and the utilization of 12 medical services. The average annual state unemployment rate was found to be a significant factor in hospital outpatient visits (P < 0.01) and emergency room visits (P < 0.01). A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was found to produce an additional 0.67 hospital outpatient visits and 0.14 emergency room visits. State unemployment rates were found statistically significantly associated with several of the medical services studied, suggesting macroeconomic conditions are an important factor in the medical decisions of employed and insured individuals. Thus, policy changes that increase access among the unemployed or uninsured may mitigate this employment risk effect and create incentives that potentially alter the utilization decisions among those currently both employed and insured.

Some Thoughts on Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

1986-01-01

This article shares the author's personal views about current macroeconomic policy and what ought to be taught at senior high school or freshman college levels. Concludes that Keynesian economics is not dead, but that modern eclectic macroeconomics must focus on basic data about the economy and what is at stake in making decisions based on…

Defense and the Economy

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

Assumptions .......................................................... 15 b. Modeling Productivity ...and a macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy, designed to provide long-range projections 3 consistent with trends in production technology, shifts in...investments in roads, bridges, sewer systems, etc. In addition to these modeling assumptions, we also have introduced productivity increases to reflect the

Towards effective prevention and control of helminth neglected tropical diseases in the Western Pacific Region through multi-disease and multi-sectoral interventions.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Jun; Ehrenberg, John P; Nealon, Joshua; Fürst, Thomas; Aratchige, Padmasiri; Gonzales, Glenda; Chanthavisouk, Chitsavang; Hernandez, Leda M; Fengthong, Tayphasavanh; Utzinger, Jürg; Steinmann, Peter

2015-01-01

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) cause serious health, social and economic burdens in the countries of the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. Among the NTDs, helminth infections are particularly prominent with regard to the number of infected individuals and health impact. Co-endemicity is common among impoverished and marginalized populations. To achieve effective and sustainable control of helminth NTDs, a deeper understanding of the social-ecological systems governing their endemicity and strategies beyond preventive chemotherapy are required to tackle the multiple causes of infection and re-infection. We discuss the feasibility of implementing multi-disease, multi-sectoral intervention packages for helminth NTDs in the Western Pacific Region. After reviewing the main determinants for helminth NTD endemicity and current control strategies, key control activities that involve or concern other programmes within and beyond the health sector are discussed. A considerable number of activities that have an impact on more than one helminth NTD are identified in a variety of sectors, suggesting an untapped potential for synergies. We also highlight the challenges of multi-sectoral collaboration, particularly of involving non-health sectors. We conclude that multi-sectoral collaboration for helminth NTD control is feasible if the target diseases and sectors are carefully selected. To do so, an incentive analysis covering key stakeholders in the sectors is crucial, and the disease-control strategies need to be well understood. The benefits of multi-disease, multi-sectoral approaches could go beyond immediate health impacts by contributing to sustainable development, raising educational attainment, increasing productivity and reducing health inequities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multisectoral Actions for Health: Challenges and Opportunities in Complex Policy Environments

PubMed Central

Tangcharoensathien, Viroj; Srisookwatana, Orapan; Pinprateep, Poldej; Posayanonda, Tipicha; Patcharanarumol, Walaiporn

2017-01-01

Multisectoral actions for health, defined as actions undertaken by non-health sectors to protect the health of the population, are essential in the context of inter-linkages between three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental. These multisectoral actions can address the social and economic factors that influence the health of a population at the local, national, and global levels. This editorial identifies the challenges, opportunities and capacity development for effective multisectoral actions for health in a complex policy environment. The root causes of the challenges lie in poor governance such as entrenched political and administrative corruption, widespread clientelism, lack of citizen voice, weak social capital, lack of trust and lack of respect for human rights. This is further complicated by the lack of government effectiveness caused by poor capacity for strong public financial management and low levels of transparency and accountability which leads to corruption. The absence of or rapid changes in government policies, and low salary in relation to living standards result in migration out of qualified staff. Tobacco, alcohol and sugary drink industries are major risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and had interfered with health policy through regulatory capture and potential law suits against the government. Opportunities still exist. Some World Health Assembly (WHA) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions are both considered as external driving forces for intersectoral actions for health. In addition, Thailand National Health Assembly under the National Health Act is another tool providing opportunity to form trust among stakeholders from different sectors. Capacity development at individual, institutional and system level to generate evidence and ensure it is used by multisectoral agencies is as critical as strengthening the health literacy of people and the overall good governance of a country. PMID:28812831

Feasibility of a novel participatory multi-sector continuous improvement approach to enhance food security in remote Indigenous Australian communities.

PubMed

Brimblecombe, J; Bailie, R; van den Boogaard, C; Wood, B; Liberato, S C; Ferguson, M; Coveney, J; Jaenke, R; Ritchie, J

2017-12-01

Food insecurity underlies and compounds many of the development issues faced by remote Indigenous communities in Australia. Multi-sector approaches offer promise to improve food security. We assessed the feasibility of a novel multi-sector approach to enhance community food security in remote Indigenous Australia. A longitudinal comparative multi-site case study, the Good Food Systems Good Food for All Project, was conducted (2009-2013) with four Aboriginal communities. Continuous improvement meetings were held in each community. Data from project documents and store sales were used to assess feasibility according to engagement, uptake and sustainability of action, and impact on community diet, as well as identifying conditions facilitating or hindering these. Engagement was established where: the community perceived a need for the approach; where trust was developed between the community and facilitators; where there was community stability; and where flexibility was applied in the timing of meetings. The approach enabled stakeholders in each community to collectively appraise the community food system and plan action. Actions that could be directly implemented within available resources resulted from developing collaborative capacity. Actions requiring advocacy, multi-sectoral involvement, commitment or further resources were less frequently used. Positive shifts in community diet were associated with key areas where actions were implemented. A multi-sector participatory approach seeking continuous improvement engaged committed Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal stakeholders and was shown to have potential to shift community diet. Provision of clear mechanisms to link this approach with higher level policy and decision-making structures, clarity of roles and responsibilities, and processes to prioritise and communicate actions across sectors should further strengthen capacity for food security improvement. Integrating this approach enabling local decision-making into community governance structures with adequate resourcing is an imperative.

Economic Model For a Return on Investment Analysis of United States Government High Performance Computing (HPC) Research and Development (R & D) Investment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joseph, Earl C.; Conway, Steve; Dekate, Chirag

This study investigated how high-performance computing (HPC) investments can improve economic success and increase scientific innovation. This research focused on the common good and provided uses for DOE, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The study created two unique economic models and an innovation index: 1 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in economic advancements in the form of ROI in revenue (GDP), profits (and cost savings), and jobs. 2 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in basic and applied innovations, looking at variations by sector, industry, country, and organization size. Amore » new innovation index that provides a means of measuring and comparing innovation levels. Key findings of the pilot study include: IDC collected the required data across a broad set of organizations, with enough detail to create these models and the innovation index. The research also developed an expansive list of HPC success stories.« less

The Impact of Alzheimer's Disease on the Chinese Economy.

PubMed

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Arrighi, H Michael; Smith, Richard D

2016-02-01

Recent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimer's Disease (AD) burdens. China's demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment. AD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011-2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed. Simulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011-50 from 6-28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to China's 2012 GDP (US$8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US$1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%. Health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011-2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies.

The Impact of Alzheimer's Disease on the Chinese Economy

PubMed Central

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R.; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Arrighi, H. Michael; Smith, Richard D.

2015-01-01

Background Recent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimer's Disease (AD) burdens. China's demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment. Methods AD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011–2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed. Findings Simulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011–50 from 6–28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to China's 2012 GDP (US$8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US$1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%. Interpretation Health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011–2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies. PMID:26981556

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-09-01

Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

PubMed

Latif, Ehsan

2014-06-01

The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Teaching Macroeconomics after the Crisis: A Survey among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gärtner, Manfred; Griesbach, Björn; Jung, Florian

2013-01-01

The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of…

Economic Evaluation of New Technologies in Higher Education. N.I.E. Report Phase 1, Volumes 4 and 5 of 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh (Scotland). Esmee Fairbairn Economics Research Centre.

Designed as an accompaniment to college level macroeconomic lectures (see SO 011 937), this package contains materials for three approaches to the macroeconomics course. The course covers topics of basic macroeconomic concepts, income and expenditure determination, aggregate demand, unemployment and inflation, policy making, investment and…

The Use of a Comprehensive Multiple Choice Final Exam in the Macroeconomics Principles Course: An Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petrowsky, Michael C.

This paper analyzes the results of a pilot study at Glendale Community College (Arizona) to assess the effectiveness of a comprehensive multiple choice final exam in the macroeconomic principles course. The "pilot project" involved the administration of a 50-question multiple choice exam to 71 students in three macroeconomics sections.…

An Exposition of Fischer's Model of Overlapping Contracts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fields, T. Windsor; Hart, William R.

1992-01-01

Suggests how the classic model of overlapping contracts can be incorporated into the contract wage model of aggregate supply. Illustrates dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment following a shock to aggregate demand. Concludes that overlapping contracts do not prolong the adjustment process; rather, the longest remaining contract determines the time…

Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Graeme

2010-01-01

The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

Boundary‐spanning actors in complex adaptive governance systems: The case of multisectoral nutrition

PubMed Central

Gervais, Suzanne; Hafeez‐ur‐Rehman, Hajra; Sanou, Dia; Tumwine, Jackson

2017-01-01

Abstract A growing literature highlights complexity of policy implementation and governance in global health and argues that the processes and outcomes of policies could be improved by explicitly taking this complexity into account. Yet there is a paucity of studies exploring how this can be achieved in everyday practice. This study documents the strategies, tactics, and challenges of boundary‐spanning actors working in 4 Sub‐Saharan Africa countries who supported the implementation of multisectoral nutrition as part of the African Nutrition Security Partnership in Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Three action researchers were posted to these countries during the final 2 years of the project to help the government and its partners implement multisectoral nutrition and document the lessons. Prospective data were collected through participant observation, end‐line semistructured interviews, and document analysis. All 4 countries made significant progress despite a wide range of challenges at the individual, organizational, and system levels. The boundary‐spanning actors and their collaborators deployed a wide range of strategies but faced significant challenges in playing these unconventional roles. The study concludes that, under the right conditions, intentional boundary spanning can be a feasible and acceptable practice within a multisectoral, complex adaptive system in low‐ and middle‐income countries. PMID:29024002

Teaching New Keynesian Open Economy Macroeconomics at the Intermediate Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bofinger, Peter; Mayer, Eric; Wollmershauser, Timo

2009-01-01

For the open economy, the workhorse model in intermediate textbooks still is the Mundell-Fleming model, which basically extends the investment and savings, liquidity preference and money supply (IS-LM) model to open economy problems. The authors present a simple New Keynesian model of the open economy that introduces open economy considerations…

A study on macroeconomic cost of CCS in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ji-Whan; Kim, Yoon Kyung

2015-04-01

CCS is an important measure for mitigating the problem of World Climate Change and already several projects are entered the step of commercialization. The benefits of CCS implementation ultimately depends on the alleviation level of CO2 on earth because it is caused by the mitigation of the World Climate Change problem. Thus it is possible not to coincide at same time between starting the CCS and getting the benefits. Considering the high costs of CCS, the time mismatch between imposing the costs and getting the benefits is apt to impose some heavy burden on the individual national economy. For this reason, at the political decision-making, the policy makers should consider the macroeconomic effects. Meanwhile, Korean electricity market's supply side is comprised of competitive production and a sole distributor(public enterprise) and then electricity is supplied by a single price structure(administered pricing). Under this condition, if CCS is introduced to power setor, electric charges must be increased and production costs will go high. High production costs will have unfavourable effects on disposable income, price level, purchasing power and so on. In order to minimize these effects, policy makers have to consider the economic effects of introducing CCS. This study estimates the microscopic cost of CCS using ICCSEM 2.0 methodology made by CO2CRC and after that, the macroeconomic effects of introducing CCS is estimated on the basis of microscopic cost estimating results. The macroeconomic effects of CCS applied to Power Generation sector are estimated using macroeconometrics model and Input-Output analysis. A macroeconometrics model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the national economy. This model is usually applied to examine the dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, the level of prices and so forth. Introducing the input-output relationship of Korean industries, the macroeconometrics model can show what response is caused by the CCS cost as supply and demand shock. This study is intended to provide a basic information for making reasonable policies which is to minimize the economic costs of introducing CCS.

A Beginner's Guide to the Solow Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Sheldon H.

2007-01-01

The Solow model is widely regarded as the workhorse model of the theory of economic growth. Although at one point this model was first encountered in graduate school, it has since filtered down to the intermediate and, occasionally, to the principles of macroeconomics course. Many have commented on how difficult it is to teach the Solow model to…

JPRS Report, China.

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-04-28

Kong MING PAO 25 FebJ 4 ECONOMIC NATIONAL AFFAIRS, POLICY Thoughts, Proposals on Macroeconomic Policy [JINRONG SHIBAO 18 Jan] 6 Balanced...Investment, Consumption Keys to Macroeconomic Reforms [GUANGMING RIBAO 25 FebJ 8 Selling State Assets May Cause, Not Cure, Inflation [GUANGMING RIBAO 25...taxing system, which may resolve this problem. JPRS-CAR-89-038 28 April 1989 ECONOMIC NATIONAL AFFAIRS, POLICY Thoughts, Proposals on Macroeconomic

JPRS Report, China.

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-24

in Macroeconomic Reg- ulation and Control"] [Text] All the country’s macroeconomic indicators show a rather strong growth momentum for 1992...fundamental role of allocating resources under macroeconomic government regulation and control. We can clearly see that the market lies at the heart...of high speed economic growth . During the coming stage, reform will have to be intensified and opening to the outside world widened. The tempo and

Hysteresis in the trade cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mc Namara, Hugh A.; Pokrovskii, Alexei V.

2006-02-01

The Kaldor model-one of the first nonlinear models of macroeconomics-is modified to incorporate a Preisach nonlinearity. The new dynamical system thus created shows highly complicated behaviour. This paper presents a rigorous (computer aided) proof of chaos in this new model, and of the existence of unstable periodic orbits of all minimal periods p>57.

A Structural Equation Model for Predicting Business Student Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pomykalski, James J.; Dion, Paul; Brock, James L.

2008-01-01

In this study, the authors developed a structural equation model that accounted for 79% of the variability of a student's final grade point average by using a sample size of 147 students. The model is based on student grades in 4 foundational business courses: introduction to business, macroeconomics, statistics, and using databases. Educators and…

Implications of Modern Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics for Georgescu-Roegen's Macro-Economics: lessons from a comprehensive historical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poisson, Alexandre

2011-12-01

In the early 1970s, mathematician and economist Nicolas Georgescu-Roegen developed an alternative framework to macro-economics (his hourglass model) based on two principles of classical thermodynamics applied to the earth-system as a whole. The new model led him to the radical conclusion that "not only growth, but also a zero-growth state, nay, even a declining state which does not converge toward annihilation, cannot exist forever in a finite environment" (Georgescu-Roegen 1976, p.23). Georgescu-Roegen's novel approach long served as a devastating critique of standard neoclassical growth theories. It also helped establish the foundations for the new trans-disciplinary field of ecological economics. In recent decades however, it has remained unclear whether revolutionary developments in "modern non-equilibrium thermodynamics" (Kondepudi and Prigogine 1998) refute some of Georgescu-Roegen's initial conclusions and provide fundamentally new lessons for very long-term macro-economic analysis. Based on a broad historical review of literature from many fields (thermodynamics, cosmology, ecosystems ecology and economics), I argue that Georgescu-Roegen's hourglass model is largely based on old misconceptions and assumptions from 19th century thermodynamics (including an out-dated cosmology) which make it very misleading. Ironically, these assumptions (path independence and linearity of the entropy function in particular) replicate the non-evolutionary thinking he seemed to despise in his colleagues. In light of modern NET, I propose a different model. Contrary to Georgescu-Roegen's hourglass, I do not assume the path independence of the entropy function. In the new model, achieving critical free energy rate density thresholds can abruptly increase the level of complexity and maximum remaining lifespan of stock-based civilizations.

Fast Conformal Thermal Ablation in the Prostate with Transurethral Multi-Sectored Ultrasound Devices and MR Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinsey, Adam M.; Diederich, Chris J.; Nau, William H.; Ross, Anthony B.; Pauly, Kim Butts; Rieke, Viola; Sommer, Graham

2007-05-01

Transurethral ultrasound applicators incorporating an array of multisectored tubular transducers were evaluated in theoretical simulations and in vivo canine prostates under MR guidance as a method for fast, conformal thermal therapy of the prostate. Comprehensive simulations with a biothermal model investigated the effect on lesion creation of sector size, perfusion, treatment time, rectal cooling, prostate target dimensions, and feedback controller parameters (maximum temperature, pilot points at boundary, update times). In vivo canine prostates (n = 4) were treated with trisectored ultrasound transducers (3 mm OD) under MR temperature monitoring to contour the ablation zone (>52 C for 1-2 min) to the boundary of the prostate. Contiguous thermal lesions extended 2 cm in radius from the urethra in less than 15 min and independent sector control simultaneously allowed for conformal treatment in the angular dimension. Experiments investigated sequential translation of the transducer assembly within the catheter for tailoring heat treatments to different partitions in the prostate (base, apex) without changing the initial setup. This treatment method offered greater lesion shape control in three dimensions and slightly lengthened the overall treatment time. The MR temperature images correlated with post-treatment histology and accurately controlled the heating to the target boundary. MR-based control of transurethral ultrasound devices appeared more practical with multisectored transducers compared to rotating curvilinear and planar applicators due to less stringent requirements on spatial and temporal MR parameters. This study demonstrated the applicability of these devices in the prostate for anterior-lateral BPH treatment, and whole gland or quadrant target volumes for cancer treatment.

Boundary-spanning actors in complex adaptive governance systems: The case of multisectoral nutrition.

PubMed

Pelletier, David; Gervais, Suzanne; Hafeez-Ur-Rehman, Hajra; Sanou, Dia; Tumwine, Jackson

2018-01-01

A growing literature highlights complexity of policy implementation and governance in global health and argues that the processes and outcomes of policies could be improved by explicitly taking this complexity into account. Yet there is a paucity of studies exploring how this can be achieved in everyday practice. This study documents the strategies, tactics, and challenges of boundary-spanning actors working in 4 Sub-Saharan Africa countries who supported the implementation of multisectoral nutrition as part of the African Nutrition Security Partnership in Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Three action researchers were posted to these countries during the final 2 years of the project to help the government and its partners implement multisectoral nutrition and document the lessons. Prospective data were collected through participant observation, end-line semistructured interviews, and document analysis. All 4 countries made significant progress despite a wide range of challenges at the individual, organizational, and system levels. The boundary-spanning actors and their collaborators deployed a wide range of strategies but faced significant challenges in playing these unconventional roles. The study concludes that, under the right conditions, intentional boundary spanning can be a feasible and acceptable practice within a multisectoral, complex adaptive system in low- and middle-income countries. © 2017 The Authors. The International Journal of Health Planning and Management Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimizing the Multisectoral Nutrition Policy Cycle: A Systems Perspective.

PubMed

Lamstein, Sascha; Pomeroy-Stevens, Amanda; Webb, Patrick; Kennedy, Eileen

2016-12-01

Based on the data collected in Uganda, Nepal, and Ethiopia, the papers included in this supplement fill a critical gap in evidence regarding multisectoral National Nutrition Action Plans. The studies offer new data and new thinking on how and why governance, effective financial decentralization, and improved accountability all matter for nutrition actions in low-income countries. This introductory paper offers an overview of the current state of evidence and thinking on the multisectoral nutrition policy cycle, including how governance and financing support that process. It also explores the benefits of applying a systems lens to understand the dynamic, enabling processes of the policy cycle-from research to knowledge and ultimately action-and to provide more dynamic and accurate information for nutrition advocacy and evidence-based decision-making. It concludes with key findings from the 5 country-level studies included. Several important themes emerge: the egregious gap in human resources needed for effective nutrition actions in most low-income settings, the value of research on bottlenecks and successes, and the need for routine monitoring of national policies and plans to measure their effectiveness in achieving both their own stated goals and global sustainable development goals. Reviewing these studies together provides a path forward in building stronger, evidence-based multisectoral nutrition policies and supporting implementation of the nutrition activities included within them. © The Author(s) 2016.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

prepared by CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division. The many people at CBO who worked on this report are listed in Appendix C. CBO’s Panel of ...Bank of Kansas City, Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead (Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank, 2011). For a discussion of policy responses to...about CBO’s assumptions, see Congressional Budget Office, The Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of an Illustrative Policy for Reducing the Federal

Employment status and mental health care use in times of economic contraction: a repeated cross-sectional study in Europe, using a three-level model.

PubMed

Buffel, Veerle; van de Straat, Vera; Bracke, Piet

2015-03-11

Framed within the recent economic crisis, in this study we investigate the medical mental health care use of the unemployed compared with that of the employed in Europe, and whether the relationship between employment status and mental health care use varies across macro-economic conditions. We examine whether the macro-economic context and changes therein are related to mental health care use, via their impact on mental health, or more directly, irrespective of mental health. We use data from three waves of the Eurobarometer (2002, 2005/2006, and 2010), which has a repeated cross-sectional and cross-national design. Linear and logistic multilevel regression analyses are performed with mental health, contacting a general practitioner, and contacting a psychiatrist for mental health problems as dependent variables. The multilevel design has three levels (the individual, the period-country, and the country), which allows us to estimate both longitudinal and cross-sectional macro-effects. The macro-economic context and changes therein are assessed using national unemployment rates and growth rates in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The mean unemployment rate is negatively related to mental health, although for women, this effect only applies to the employed. Among women, no relationship is found between changes in the macro-economic context and mental health. The unemployment rate, and changes in both the unemployment rate and the real GDP growth rate, are associated with men's care use, regardless of their mental health, whereas this does not hold for women. In countries with an increase in the unemployment rate, both unemployed and employed men tend to medicalize their problems more by contacting a general practitioner, irrespective of their mental health, while the likelihood of contacting a psychiatrist is lower among employed men. Our findings stress the importance of taking the macro-economic context and changes therein into account when studying the mental health care use of unemployed people compared with the employed, in particular among men. Moreover, it is important to make the distinction between primary and specialized medical care use, as the impact of macro-economic conditions is dependent on the type of care, which also applies when controlling for mental health.

International Monetary Policy Coordination in a New Keynesian Model with NICE Features

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poutineau, Jean-Christophe; Vermandel, Gauthier

2018-01-01

The authors provide a static two-country new Keynesian model to teach two related questions in international macroeconomics: the international transmission of unilateral monetary policy decisions and the gains coming from the coordination monetary rules. They concentrate on "normal times" and use a thoroughly graphical approach to…

Macromod: Computer Simulation For Introductory Economics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Thomas

1977-01-01

The Macroeconomic model (Macromod) is a computer assisted instruction simulation model designed for introductory economics courses. An evaluation of its utilization at a community college indicates that it yielded a 10 percent to 13 percent greater economic comprehension than lecture classes and that it met with high student approval. (DC)

ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roop, Joseph M.; Scott, Michael J.; Schultz, Robert W.

2005-07-19

This version of the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model represents the ''next generation'' of the previously developed Visual Basic model (ImBUILD 2.0) that was developed in 2003 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of energy-efficient technology in buildings. More specifically, a special-purpose version of the 1997 benchmark national Input-Output (I-O) model was designed specifically to estimate the national employment and income effects of the deployment of Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) -developed energy-saving technologies. In comparison with the previous versions of the model, this version allows for more complete and automated analysis of the essential featuresmore » of energy efficiency investments in buildings, industry, transportation, and the electric power sectors. This version also incorporates improvements in the treatment of operations and maintenance costs, and improves the treatment of financing of investment options. ImSET is also easier to use than extant macroeconomic simulation models and incorporates information developed by each of the EERE offices as part of the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act.« less

Impact of the macroeconomic factors on university budgeting the US and Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogomolova, Arina; Balk, Igor; Ivachenko, Natalya; Temkin, Anatoly

2017-10-01

This paper discuses impact of macroeconomics factor on the university budgeting. Modern developments in the area of data science and machine learning made it possible to utilise automated techniques to address several problems of humankind ranging from genetic engineering and particle physics to sociology and economics. This paper is the first step to create a robust toolkit which will help universities sustain macroeconomic challenges utilising modern predictive analytics techniques.

Macroeconomic policy, growth, and biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Lawn, Philip

2008-12-01

To successfully achieve biodiversity conservation, the amount of ecosystem structure available for economic production must be determined by, and subject to, conservation needs. As such, the scale of economic systems must remain within the limits imposed by the need to preserve critical ecosystems and the regenerative and waste assimilative capacities of the ecosphere. These limits are determined by biophysical criteria, yet macroeconomics involves the use of economic instruments designed to meet economic criteria that have no capacity to achieve biophysically based targets. Macroeconomic policy cannot, therefore, directly solve the biodiversity erosion crisis. Nevertheless, good macroeconomic policy is still important given that bad macroeconomy policy is likely to reduce human well-being and increase the likelihood of social upheaval that could undermine conservation efforts.

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

PubMed Central

Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2012-01-01

Aim Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. Methods We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15–49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an “artificial” ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Results Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm3 CD4 cell counts. Conclusion Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to “legitimate” short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice. PMID:22514619

A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

About a mathematical model of market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, D. A.

2017-01-01

In the paper a famous mathematical model of macroeconomics, which is called “market model” was considered. Traditional versions of this model have no periodic solutions and, therefore, they cannot describe a cyclic recurrence of the market economy. In the paper for the corresponding equation a delay was added. It allows obtaining sufficient conditions for existence of the stable cycles.

Revisiting Unemployment in Intermediate Macroeconomics: A New Approach for Teaching Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhattacharya, Arghya; Jackson, Paul; Jenkins, Brian C.

2018-01-01

The authors present a version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of unemployment that is accessible to undergraduates and preserve the dynamic structure of the original model. The model is solvable in closed form using basic algebra and admits a graphical representation useful for illustrating a variety of comparative statics. They show how…

Traces of business cycles in credit-rating migrations

PubMed Central

Boreiko, Dmitri; Kaniovski, Serguei; Pflug, Georg

2017-01-01

Using migration data of a rating agency, this paper attempts to quantify the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit-rating migrations. The migrations are modeled as a coupled Markov chain, where the macroeconomic factors are represented by unobserved tendency variables. In the simplest case, these binary random variables are static and credit-class-specific. A generalization treats tendency variables evolving as a time-homogeneous Markov chain. A more detailed analysis assumes a tendency variable for every combination of a credit class and an industry. The models are tested on a Standard and Poor’s (S&P’s) dataset. Parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method. According to the estimates, the investment-grade financial institutions evolve independently of the rest of the economy represented by the data. This might be an evidence of implicit too-big-to-fail bail-out guarantee policies of the regulatory authorities. PMID:28426758

Traces of business cycles in credit-rating migrations.

PubMed

Boreiko, Dmitri; Kaniovski, Serguei; Kaniovski, Yuri; Pflug, Georg

2017-01-01

Using migration data of a rating agency, this paper attempts to quantify the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit-rating migrations. The migrations are modeled as a coupled Markov chain, where the macroeconomic factors are represented by unobserved tendency variables. In the simplest case, these binary random variables are static and credit-class-specific. A generalization treats tendency variables evolving as a time-homogeneous Markov chain. A more detailed analysis assumes a tendency variable for every combination of a credit class and an industry. The models are tested on a Standard and Poor's (S&P's) dataset. Parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method. According to the estimates, the investment-grade financial institutions evolve independently of the rest of the economy represented by the data. This might be an evidence of implicit too-big-to-fail bail-out guarantee policies of the regulatory authorities.

Spatial Durbin model analysis macroeconomic loss due to natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusrini, D. E.; Mukhtasor

2015-03-01

Magnitude of the damage and losses caused by natural disasters is huge for Indonesia, therefore this study aimed to analyze the effects of natural disasters for macroeconomic losses that occurred in 115 cities/districts across Java during 2012. Based on the results of previous studies it is suspected that it contains effects of spatial dependencies in this case, so that the completion of this case is performed using a regression approach to the area, namely Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The obtained significant predictor variable is population, and predictor variable with a significant weighting is the number of occurrences of disasters, i.e., disasters in the region which have an impact on other neighboring regions. Moran's I index value using the weighted Queen Contiguity also showed significant results, meaning that the incidence of disasters in the region will decrease the value of GDP in other.

Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model.

PubMed

Xie, Yun; Tian, Yixiang; Xiao, Zhuang; Zhou, Xiangyun

2018-01-01

The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds.

Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds. PMID:29723295

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... or refining capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors, and... capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors, and any other...

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... or refining capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors, and... capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors, and any other...

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... or refining capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors, and... capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors, and any other...

Exploring the Association between Macroeconomic Indicators and Dialysis Mortality

PubMed Central

Stel, Vianda S.; Caskey, Fergus J.; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F.; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; MacLeod, Alison M.; Jager, Kitty J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and explore potential explanations through renal service indicators, incidence of dialysis, and characteristics of the dialysis population. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Aggregated unadjusted survival probabilities were obtained from 22 renal registries worldwide for patients starting dialysis in 2003–2005. General population age and health, macroeconomic indices, and renal service organization data were collected from secondary sources and questionnaires. Linear modeling with log–log transformation of the outcome variable was applied to establish factors associated with survival on dialysis. Results Two-year survival on dialysis ranged from 62.3% in Iceland to 89.8% in Romania. A higher gross domestic product per capita (hazard ratio=1.02 per 1000 US dollar increase), a higher percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare (1.10 per percent increase), and a higher intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population (i.e., general population-derived mortality risk of the dialysis population in that country standardized for age and sex; hazard ratio=1.04 per death per 10,000 person years) were associated with a higher mortality of the dialysis population. The incidence of dialysis and renal service indicators were not associated with mortality on dialysis. Conclusions Macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population are associated with international differences in the mortality on dialysis. Renal service organizational factors and incidence of dialysis seem less important. PMID:22837275

Exploring the association between macroeconomic indicators and dialysis mortality.

PubMed

Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; Macleod, Alison M; Jager, Kitty J

2012-10-01

Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and explore potential explanations through renal service indicators, incidence of dialysis, and characteristics of the dialysis population. Aggregated unadjusted survival probabilities were obtained from 22 renal registries worldwide for patients starting dialysis in 2003-2005. General population age and health, macroeconomic indices, and renal service organization data were collected from secondary sources and questionnaires. Linear modeling with log-log transformation of the outcome variable was applied to establish factors associated with survival on dialysis. Two-year survival on dialysis ranged from 62.3% in Iceland to 89.8% in Romania. A higher gross domestic product per capita (hazard ratio=1.02 per 1000 US dollar increase), a higher percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare (1.10 per percent increase), and a higher intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population (i.e., general population-derived mortality risk of the dialysis population in that country standardized for age and sex; hazard ratio=1.04 per death per 10,000 person years) were associated with a higher mortality of the dialysis population. The incidence of dialysis and renal service indicators were not associated with mortality on dialysis. Macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population are associated with international differences in the mortality on dialysis. Renal service organizational factors and incidence of dialysis seem less important.

Asymmetric information and macroeconomic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Raymond J.; Aoki, Masanao; Roy Frieden, B.

2010-09-01

We show how macroeconomic dynamics can be derived from asymmetric information. As an illustration of the utility of this approach we derive the equilibrium density, non-equilibrium densities and the equation of motion for the response to a demand shock for productivity in a simple economy. Novel consequences of this approach include a natural incorporation of time dependence into macroeconomics and a common information-theoretic basis for economics and other fields seeking to link micro-dynamics and macro-observables.

Using sustainability as a collaboration magnet to encourage multi-sector collaborations for health.

PubMed

Khayatzadeh-Mahani, Akram; Labonté, Ronald; Ruckert, Arne; de Leeuw, Evelyne

2017-03-01

The World Health Organization Commission on Social Determinants of Health (SDH) places great emphasis on the role of multi-sector collaboration in addressing SDH. Despite this emphasis on this need, there is surprisingly little evidence for this to advance health equity goals. One way to encourage more successful multi-sector collaborations is anchoring SDH discourse around 'sustainability', subordinating within it the ethical and empirical importance of 'levelling up'. Sustainability, in contrast to health equity, has recently proved to be an effective collaboration magnet. The recent adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provides an opportunity for novel ways of ideationally re-framing SDH discussions through the notion of sustainability. The 2030 Agenda for the SDGs calls for greater policy coherence across sectors to advance on the goals and targets. The expectation is that diverse sectors are more likely and willing to collaborate with each other around the SDGs, the core idea of which is 'sustainability'.

Healthy public policy in poor countries: tackling macro-economic policies.

PubMed

Mohindra, K S

2007-06-01

Large segments of the population in poor countries continue to suffer from a high level of unmet health needs, requiring macro-level, broad-based interventions. Healthy public policy, a key health promotion strategy, aims to put health on the agenda of policy makers across sectors and levels of government. Macro-economic policy in developing countries has thus far not adequately captured the attention of health promotion researchers. This paper argues that healthy public policy should not only be an objective in rich countries, but also in poor countries. This paper takes up this issue by reviewing the main macro-economic aid programs offered by international financial institutions as a response to economic crises and unmanageable debt burdens. Although health promotion researchers were largely absent during a key debate on structural adjustment programs and health during the 1980s and 1990s, the international macro-economic policy tool currently in play offers a new opportunity to participate in assessing these policies, ensuring new forms of macro-economic policy interventions do not simply reproduce patterns of (neoliberal) economics-dominated development policy.

The impact of energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators on environmental pollution: evidence from Ghana.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2017-03-01

In this study, the impact of energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators on environmental pollution from 1971 to 2011 is investigated using the statistically inspired modification of partial least squares (SIMPLS) regression model. There was evidence of a linear relationship between energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators and carbon dioxide emissions. Evidence from the SIMPLS regression shows that a 1% increase in crop production index will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.71%. Economic growth increased by 1% will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.46%, which means that an increase in Ghana's economic growth may lead to a reduction in environmental pollution. The increase in electricity production from hydroelectric sources by 1% will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.30%; thus, increasing renewable energy sources in Ghana's energy portfolio will help mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. Increasing enteric emissions by 1% will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 4.22%, and a 1% increase in the nitrogen content of manure management will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 6.69%. The SIMPLS regression forecasting exhibited a 5% MAPE from the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions.

The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

2017-09-01

Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

Dedollarization in Turkey after decades of dollarization: A myth or reality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metin-Özcan, Kıvılcım; Us, Vuslat

2007-11-01

The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate depreciation volatility, inflation volatility and expectations. Furthermore, the generalized impulse response function (IRF) analysis, in addition to the analysis of variance decomposition (VDC) gives support to the notion that dollarization seems to sustain its persistent nature, thus hysteresis still prevails. Hence, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions apparently contribute to dollarization while dollarization itself contains inertia. Furthermore, dedollarization that presumably started after 2001 has lost headway after May 2006. Thus, it seems too early to conclude that dollarization changed its route to dedollarization.

Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

2016-01-01

The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

excluding interest savings and macroeconomic effects, would be roughly $5 trillion lower than in CBO’s current-law baseline, as adjusted to...and spending—and the resulting amount of federal borrow- ing—under those paths would affect the economy and how those macroeconomic effects (or...baseline projections. With interest savings included and the resulting macroeconomic effects incorpo- rated, the cumulative deficit over the 2016–2025

Applying the Extended Technology Acceptance Model to the Use of Clickers in Student Learning: Some Evidence from Macroeconomics Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Xiaoyu; Gao, Yuan

2011-01-01

This paper applies the extended technology acceptance model (exTAM) in information systems research to the use of clickers in student learning. The technology acceptance model (TAM) posits that perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness of technology influence users' attitudes toward using and intention to use technology. Research subsequent…

Macroeconomics and oil-supply disruptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hubbard, R.G.; Fry, R.C. Jr.

1981-04-01

Energy-economy interactions and domestic linkages have been used in a system of models. Domestic economic aggregates are linked with a model of the world oil market by a core macroeconomic model with real and financial sectors. The model can be used to examine the policy ramifications of various short-run scenarios. Demand factors are not taken as exogenous to the world oil market, nor are oil prices taken as exogenous to the US economy. Simulations of the model have generated endogenous cycles in the world oil market; which then affect the US economy primarily through output and inflation channels. Policy simulationmore » was centered around the short-run imposition of a disruption tariff. The disruption tariff exhibited at least some of the desirable features noted by its proponents, though it did not function as a shield against the short-run output loss forced by the disruption. One might also simulate the rebate of tariff revenues as a reduction in the social security payroll tax. Other possible simulations include the use of any of the fiscal and monetary instruments included in the model. The effectiveness of these other policy instruments will be examined in a later paper.« less

Local adaptation of the National Physical Activity Plan: creation of the Active Living Plan for a Healthier San Antonio.

PubMed

Esparza, Laura A; Velasquez, Katherine S; Zaharoff, Annette M

2014-03-01

Physical inactivity and related health consequences are serious public health threats. Effective strategies to facilitate and support active-living opportunities must be implemented at national, state, and local levels. San Antonio, Texas, health department officials launched the Active Living Council of San Antonio (ALCSA) to engage the community in developing a 3- to 5-year plan to promote active living. A steering committee set preliminary ALCSA aims and established a multisector membership structure modeled after the US National Physical Activity Plan (NPAP). ALCSA adopted governance standards, increased knowledge of physical activity and health, and engaged in an 18-month collaborative master plan writing process. ALCSA selected overarching strategies and evidence-based strategies for each societal sector and adapted strategies to the local context, including tactics, measures of success, and timelines. Community and expert engagement led to a localized plan reflecting national recommendations, the Active Living Plan for a Healthier San Antonio. Multisector collaborations among governmental agencies and community organizations, which were successfully developed in this case to produce the first-ever local adaptation of the NPAP, require clearly defined expectations. Lessons learned in ALCSA's organizational and plan development can serve as a model for future community-driven efforts to increase active living.

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

2018-05-01

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income <10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks approximately doubles between 1.5 °C and 2 °C GMT change, doubles again with 3 °C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases (SSP1/1.5 °C vs SSP3/3 °C, 0.8–4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

Potential impact of a transatlantic trade and Investment partnership on the global forest sector

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Paul Rougieux; Ahmed Barkaoui; Shushuai Zhu; Patrice Harou

2014-01-01

The effects of a transatlantic trade agreement on the global forest sector were assessed with the Global Forest Products Model, conditional on previous macroeconomic impacts predicted with a general equilibrium model. Comprehensive tariff elimination per se had little effect on the forest sector. However, with deeper reforms and integration consumption would increase...

To Save or to Consume: Linking Growth Theory with the Keynesian Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwok, Yun-kwong

2007-01-01

In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, "Should we save or should we consume?" In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in…

Modeling of the Gross Regional Product on the Basis of Production Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadovin, Nikolay S.; Kokotkina, Tatiana N.; Barkalova, Tatiana G.; Tsaregorodsev, Evgeny I.

2016-01-01

The article is devoted to elaboration and construction of a static model of macroeconomics in which economics is considered as an unstructured holistic unit, the input of which receives the resources, and the output is the result of the functioning of economics in the form of gross domestic product or gross regional product. Resources are…

Who Really Answers the Questions? Using Glasser's Quality School Model in an Undergraduate Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Logan, Jennifer; Plumlee, Gerald L.

2012-01-01

The authors discuss the effectiveness of the Quality School model and active learning in an undergraduate classroom setting. They compare performance levels of students in two course sections of Principles of Macroeconomics and two sections of Managerial Communications. Students are given an opportunity to help shape the structure of the…

Evaluation of Teaching the IS-LM Model through a Simulation Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pablo-Romero, Maria del Populo; Pozo-Barajas, Rafael; Gomez-Calero, Maria de la Palma

2012-01-01

The IS-ML model is a basic tool used in the teaching of short-term macroeconomics. Teaching is essentially done through the use of graphs. However, the way these graphs are traditionally taught does not allow the learner to easily visualise changes in the curves. The IS-LM simulation program overcomes difficulties encountered in understanding the…

78 FR 56273 - Occupational Exposure to Respirable Crystalline Silica

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... (b) Definitions (c) Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL) (d) Exposure Assessment (e) Regulated Areas and...) Communication of Respirable Crystalline Silica Hazards to Employees (j) Recordkeeping (k) Dates XVII. References... Maryland) well recognized for its macroeconomic modeling--to run its LIFT (Long-term Interindustry...

[Macro-economic calculation of spending versus micro-economic follow-up of costs of breast cancer].

PubMed

Borella, L; Paraponaris, A

2002-12-01

In the healthcare field, the ability to make economic forecasts requires knowledge of the costs of caring for major diseases. In the case of a semi-chronic condition like cancer, this cost covers all the episodes of care associated with a patient. An evaluation of a macro-economic method of calculating costs for treating non-metastatic cancer, covering all hospital episodes, is proposed. This method is based entirely on the use of annual hospital activity databases, linked to data concerning the incidence of cancer. It allows us to obtain the global cost of care for a neoplasm of a particular site, without the need to reconstruct the whole care pathway of the patients. The model was assessed by comparing it's own results, in the particular case of breast cancer to those issuing from a micro-economic follow-up of 115 patients. Data for macro-economic calculation are extracted from the national French hospital database for the year 1999 and from cancer incidence data. The prospective study was done in 1995, in a comprehensive cancer centre. Macro-economic calculation leads to a cost of 14,555 Euro, for primary breast cancer. Prospective follow-up showed a cost of 14,350 Euro (data corrected, 1999 value). With a difference of 1%, there was a clear cohesion of the two results, while a higher level of divergence was noticed (from 1 to 15%) in the comparison between therapeutic techniques. Accuracy and reliability of results were evaluated. This method may be extended to all types of neoplasms. This method cannot be used instead of follow-up studies, for cost-efficacy or cost-severity analysis, but may be interesting beyond economic forecasts, in the field of payment per pathology.

Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

2016-06-01

The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

Multisectoral Actions for Health: Challenges and Opportunities in Complex Policy Environments.

PubMed

Tangcharoensathien, Viroj; Srisookwatana, Orapan; Pinprateep, Poldej; Posayanonda, Tipicha; Patcharanarumol, Walaiporn

2017-05-16

Multisectoral actions for health, defined as actions undertaken by non-health sectors to protect the health of the population, are essential in the context of inter-linkages between three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental. These multisectoral actions can address the social and economic factors that influence the health of a population at the local, national, and global levels. This editorial identifies the challenges, opportunities and capacity development for effective multisectoral actions for health in a complex policy environment. The root causes of the challenges lie in poor governance such as entrenched political and administrative corruption, widespread clientelism, lack of citizen voice, weak social capital, lack of trust and lack of respect for human rights. This is further complicated by the lack of government effectiveness caused by poor capacity for strong public financial management and low levels of transparency and accountability which leads to corruption. The absence of or rapid changes in government policies, and low salary in relation to living standards result in migration out of qualified staff. Tobacco, alcohol and sugary drink industries are major risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and had interfered with health policy through regulatory capture and potential law suits against the government. Opportunities still exist. Some World Health Assembly (WHA) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions are both considered as external driving forces for intersectoral actions for health. In addition, Thailand National Health Assembly under the National Health Act is another tool providing opportunity to form trust among stakeholders from different sectors. Capacity development at individual, institutional and system level to generate evidence and ensure it is used by multisectoral agencies is as critical as strengthening the health literacy of people and the overall good governance of a country. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Country-Level Macroeconomic Indicators Predict Early Post-Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Survival in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A CIBMTR Analysis.

PubMed

Wood, William A; Brazauskas, Ruta; Hu, Zhen-Huan; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Ahmed, Ibrahim A; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Badawy, Sherif; Beitinjaneh, Amer; George, Biju; Buchbinder, David; Cerny, Jan; Dedeken, Laurence; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Freytes, Cesar O; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Gergis, Usama; Almaguer, David Gomez; Gupta, Ashish; Hale, Gregory; Hashmi, Shahrukh K; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Kamble, Rammurti T; Adekola, Kehinde; Kindwall-Keller, Tamila; Knight, Jennifer; Kumar, Lalit; Kuwatsuka, Yachiyo; Law, Jason; Lazarus, Hillard M; LeMaistre, Charles; Olsson, Richard F; Pulsipher, Michael A; Savani, Bipin N; Schultz, Kirk R; Saad, Ayman A; Seftel, Matthew; Seo, Sachiko; Shea, Thomas C; Steinberg, Amir; Sullivan, Keith; Szwajcer, David; Wirk, Baldeep; Yared, Jean; Yong, Agnes; Dalal, Jignesh; Hahn, Theresa; Khera, Nandita; Bonfim, Carmem; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Saber, Wael

2018-03-19

For patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) offers a potential cure. Life-threatening complications can arise from alloHCT that require the application of sophisticated health care delivery. The impact of country-level economic conditions on post-transplantation outcomes is not known. Our objective was to assess whether these variables were associated with outcomes for patients transplanted for ALL. Using data from the Center for Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, we included 11,261 patients who received a first alloHCT for ALL from 303 centers across 38 countries between the years of 2005 and 2013. Cox regression models were constructed using the following macroeconomic indicators as main effects: Gross national income per capita, health expenditure per capita, and Human Development Index (HDI). The outcome was overall survival at 100 days following transplantation. In each model, transplants performed within lower resourced environments were associated with inferior overall survival. In the model with the HDI as the main effect, transplants performed in the lowest HDI quartile (n = 697) were associated with increased hazard for mortality (hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.64 to 3.57; P < .001) in comparison with transplants performed in the countries with the highest HDI quartile. This translated into an 11% survival difference at 100 days (77% for lowest HDI quartile versus 88% for all other quartiles). Country-level macroeconomic indices were associated with lower survival at 100 days after alloHCT for ALL. The reasons for this disparity require further investigation. Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prioritizing and Funding Nepal's Multisector Nutrition Plan.

PubMed

Pomeroy-Stevens, Amanda; Shrestha, Madhukar B; Biradavolu, Monica; Hachhethu, Kusum; Houston, Robin; Sharma, Indu; Wun, Jolene

2016-12-01

Nepal has a long tradition of designing good multisectoral nutrition policy. However, success of policy implementation has varied. More evidence on how to successfully carry out multisector nutrition policy is needed. We tracked the influence of Nepal's multisectoral nutrition plan (MSNP) on the process of priority setting and budgeting from 2014 to 2016. This study used a mixed-method longitudinal design to track qualitative and budgetary changes related to MSNP processes nationally as well as in 3 districts. Qualitative changes in each study area were assessed through interviews, observation, news content, and meeting notes. Changes in allocations and expenditures were calculated based on budget documents, work plans, and validation interviews. Improved understanding of the MSNP was documented nationally and in study districts but not in VDCs. Human resources, ownership, bottom-up planning, coordination, advocacy, and sustainable structures all emerged as important factors within the enabling environment. Evidence suggests the MSNP influenced improvements in the last 3 factors. We also found notable increases in activities and financing for nutrition-allocations increased steadily between FY 2013-2014 and FY 2015-2016, and 28% of total nutrition allocations in the final year came from new or expanded MSNP-affiliated activities. Data from 3 districts highlight challenges linking local planning and budgeting to central-level structures. The MSNP appears to have strengthened the nutrition system in Nepal and increased priority and funding for nutrition. Next steps include strengthening linkages to the districts and below. Other countries can learn from the MSNP's success in increasing investment for nutrition. © The Author(s) 2016.

Population health improvement: a community health business model that engages partners in all sectors.

PubMed

Kindig, David A; Isham, George

2014-01-01

Because population health improvement requires action on multiple determinants--including medical care, health behaviors, and the social and physical environments--no single entity can be held accountable for achieving improved outcomes. Medical organizations, government, schools, businesses, and community organizations all need to make substantial changes in how they approach health and how they allocate resources. To this end, we suggest the development of multisectoral community health business partnership models. Such collaborative efforts are needed by sectors and actors not accustomed to working together. Healthcare executives can play important leadership roles in fostering or supporting such partnerships in local and national arenas where they have influence. In this article, we develop the following components of this argument: defining a community health business model; defining population health and the Triple Aim concept; reaching beyond core mission to help create the model; discussing the shift for care delivery beyond healthcare organizations to other community sectors; examining who should lead in developing the community business model; discussing where the resources for a community business model might come from; identifying that better evidence is needed to inform where to make cost-effective investments; and proposing some next steps. The approach we have outlined is a departure from much current policy and management practice. But new models are needed as a road map to drive action--not just thinking--to address the enormous challenge of improving population health. While we applaud continuing calls to improve health and reduce disparities, progress will require more robust incentives, strategies, and action than have been in practice to date. Our hope is that ideas presented here will help to catalyze a collective, multisectoral response to this critical social and economic challenge.

Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in the Italian Public Health Service: Macroeconomic and Corporate Implications

PubMed Central

Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

2013-01-01

The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon. PMID:24348148

Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Italian public health service: macroeconomic and corporate implications.

PubMed

Ippolito, Adelaide; Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

2013-01-01

The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon.

How the macroeconomic context impacts on attitudes to immigration: Evidence from within-country variation.

PubMed

Ruist, Joakim

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effects of the macroeconomic context on attitudes to immigration. Earlier studies do in some cases not provide significant empirical support for the existence of important such effects. In this article it is argued that this lack of consistent evidence is mainly due to the cross-national setup of these studies being vulnerable to estimation bias caused by country-specific factors. The present study instead analyzes attitude variation within countries over time. The results provide firm empirical support in favor of macroeconomic variation importantly affecting attitudes to immigration. As an illustration, the estimates indicate that the number of individuals in the average European country in 2012 who were against all immigration from poorer countries outside Europe was 40% higher than it would have been if macroeconomic conditions in that year had been as good as they were in 2006. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementing Multisector Nutrition Programs in Ethiopia and Nepal: Challenges and Opportunities From a Stakeholder Perspective.

PubMed

Kennedy, Eileen; Fekadu, Habtamu; Ghosh, Shibani; Baral, Kedar; Davis, Dale; Sapkota, Diplav; Webb, Patrick

2016-12-01

Effective governance is essential for effective nutrition program implementation. There are additional challenges in launching multisector plans to enhance nutritional status. The present study compares the challenges and opportunities in Ethiopia and Nepal in designing and implementing a multisector plan for nutrition. A semi-quantitative questionnaire with open-ended questions was used to solicit information from senior national-level policy officials and other key stakeholders. The nature of the major nutrition problems in each country was similar; these include malnutrition (particularly stunting), food insecurity, and micronutrient malnutrition. The main challenges identified included the need for more specificity in the roles of agencies/individuals in program implementation, more effective mechanisms for linking national to subnational officials, methods for creating awareness of the plans, and a dedicated line item in the budgets of each agency. The level of enthusiasm was high in both countries. Respondents in both countries highlighted the need to identify a "champion" at the highest level who would keep the momentum for the respective plans alive. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Primer on Macroprudential Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poutineau, Jean-Christophe; Vermandel, Gauthier

2015-01-01

This article introduces macroprudential policy using a static New Keynesian Macroeconomics model with financial frictions. The authors analyze two related questions: First, they show how the procyclicality of financial factors, captured by the financial accelerator, amplifies the transmission of supply and demand shocks and impacts the intuition…

Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harré, Michael S.

2013-02-01

Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

Two Essays in Financial Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putnam, Kyle J.

The following dissertation contains two distinct empirical essays which contribute to the overall field of Financial Economics. Chapter 1, entitled "The Determinants of Dynamic Dependence: An Analysis of Commodity Futures and Equity Markets," examines the determinants of the dynamic equity-commodity return correlations between five commodity futures sub-sectors (energy, foods and fibers, grains and oilseeds, livestock, and precious metals) and a value-weighted equity market index (S&P 500). The study utilizes the traditional DCC model, as well as three time-varying copulas: (i) the normal copula, (ii) the student's t copula, and (iii) the rotated-gumbel copula as dependence measures. Subsequently, the determinants of these various dependence measures are explored by analyzing several macroeconomic, financial, and speculation variables over different sample periods. Results indicate that the dynamic equity-commodity correlations for the energy, grains and oilseeds, precious metals, and to a lesser extent the foods and fibers, sub-sectors have become increasingly explainable by broad macroeconomic and financial market indicators, particularly after May 2003. Furthermore, these variables exhibit heterogeneous effects in terms of both magnitude and sign on each sub-sectors' equity-commodity correlation structure. Interestingly, the effects of increased financial market speculation are found to be extremely varied among the five sub-sectors. These results have important implications for portfolio selection, price formation, and risk management. Chapter 2, entitled, "US Community Bank Failure: An Empirical Investigation," examines the declining, but still pivotal role, of the US community banking industry. The study utilizes survival analysis to determine which accounting and macroeconomic variables help to predict community bank failure. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Federal Reserve Bank data are utilized to compare 452 community banks which failed between 2000 and 2013, relative to a sample of surviving community banks. Empirical results indicate that smaller banks are less likely to fail than their larger community bank counterparts. Additionally, several unique bank-specific indicators of failure emerge which relate to asset quality and liquidity, as well as earnings ratios. Moreover, results show that the use of the macroeconomic indicator of liquidity, the TED spread, provides a substantial improvement in modeling predictive community bank failure.

Macroeconomic evidence suggests that asylum seekers are not a “burden” for Western European countries

PubMed Central

d’Albis, Hippolyte

2018-01-01

This paper aims to evaluate the economic and fiscal effects of inflows of asylum seekers into Western Europe from 1985 to 2015. It relies on an empirical methodology that is widely used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of structural shocks and policies. It shows that inflows of asylum seekers do not deteriorate host countries’ economic performance or fiscal balance because the increase in public spending induced by asylum seekers is more than compensated for by an increase in tax revenues net of transfers. As asylum seekers become permanent residents, their macroeconomic impacts become positive.

Financing health development projects: some macro-economic considerations.

PubMed

Sorkin, A L

1986-01-01

The paper briefly discusses the importance of macro-economic policy in health sector financing. The ways in which monetary and fiscal policy (macro-economic policy) affect interest rates, price levels and aggregate output are presented. The main portion of the paper considers a variety of methods for public financing of health and development projects. These approaches are analyzed in light of distributional and efficiency considerations. One way of increasing health sector resources is through reallocation from other sectors of the economy. The potential for redistribution from the defense to the health service industry is briefly considered.

Oil price: Endless ability to surprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzano, Baltasar

2016-05-01

Economic agents have varying expectations on oil price fluctuations that play an important role in determining the timing and magnitude of oil price shocks. A study now shows that heterogeneous expectations should be included when modelling oil price shocks to grasp their impact on macroeconomic outcomes and energy policies.

Understanding Recession and Self-Rated Health with the Partial Proportional Odds Model: An Analysis of 26 Countries.

PubMed

Mayer, Adam; Foster, Michelle

2015-01-01

Self-rated health is demonstrated to vary substantially by both personal socio-economic status and national economic conditions. However, studies investigating the combined influence of individual and country level economic indicators across several countries in the context of recent global recession are limited. This paper furthers our knowledge of the effect of recession on health at both the individual and national level. Using the Life in Transition II study, which provides data from 19,759 individuals across 26 European nations, we examine the relationship between self-rated health, personal economic experiences, and macro-economic change. Data analyses include, but are not limited to, the partial proportional odds model which permits the effect of predictors to vary across different levels of our dependent variable. Household experiences with recession, especially a loss of staple good consumption, are associated with lower self-rated health. Most individual-level experiences with recession, such as a job loss, have relatively small negative effects on perceived health; the effect of individual or household economic hardship is strongest in high income nations. Our findings also suggest that macroeconomic growth improves self-rated health in low-income nations but has no effect in high-income nations. Individuals with the greatest probability of "good" self-rated health reside in wealthy countries ($23,910 to $50, 870 GNI per capita). Both individual and national economic variables are predictive of self-rated health. Personal and household experiences are most consequential for self-rated health in high income nations, while macroeconomic growth is most consequential in low-income nations.

A tale of trade-offs: the impact of macroeconomic factors on environmental concern.

PubMed

Conroy, Stephen J; Emerson, Tisha L N

2014-12-01

We test whether macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. Improvements in environmental quality, like everything, come at a cost. Individuals facing difficult economic times may be less willing to make trade-offs required for improvements in environmental quality. Using somewhat different methodologies and shorter time frames, prior investigations have generally found a direct relationship between willingness to pay for environmental improvements and macroeconomic conditions. We use a nearly 40-year span (27 periods) of the General Social Survey (1974-2012) to estimate attitudes toward environmental spending while controlling for U.S. macroeconomic conditions and respondent-specific factors such as age, gender, marital status, number of children, residential location, educational attainment, personal financial condition, political party affiliation and ideology. Macroeconomic conditions include one-year lagged controls for the unemployment rate, the rate of economic growth (percentage change in real GDP), and an indicator for whether the U.S. economy was experiencing a recession. We find that, in general, when economic conditions are unfavorable (i.e., during a recession, or with higher unemployment, or lower GDP growth), respondents are more likely to believe the U.S. is spending too much on "improving and protecting the environment". Interacting lagged macroeconomic controls with respondent's income, we find that these views are at least partially offset by the respondent's own economic condition (i.e., their own real income). Our findings are consistent with the notion that environmental quality is a normal, or procyclical good, i.e., that environmental spending should rise when the economy is expanding and fall during economic contractions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementing multiple intervention strategies in Dutch public health-related policy networks.

PubMed

Harting, Janneke; Peters, Dorothee; Grêaux, Kimberly; van Assema, Patricia; Verweij, Stefan; Stronks, Karien; Klijn, Erik-Hans

2017-10-13

Improving public health requires multiple intervention strategies. Implementing such an intervention mix is supposed to require a multisectoral policy network. As evidence to support this assumption is scarce, we examined under which conditions public health-related policy networks were able to implement an intervention mix. Data were collected (2009-14) from 29 Dutch public health policy networks. Surveys were used to identify the number of policy sectors, participation of actors, level of trust, networking by the project leader, and intervention strategies implemented. Conditions sufficient for an intervention mix (≥3 of 4 non-educational strategies present) were determined in a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. A multisectoral policy network (≥7 of 14 sectors present) was neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition. In multisectoral networks, additionally required was either the active participation of network actors (≥50% actively involved) or active networking by the project leader (≥monthly contacts with network actors). In policy networks that included few sectors, a high level of trust (positive perceptions of each other's intentions) was needed-in the absence though of any of the other conditions. If the network actors were also actively involved, an extra requirement was active networking by the project leader. We conclude that the multisectoral composition of policy networks can contribute to the implementation of a variety of intervention strategies, but not without additional efforts. However, policy networks that include only few sectors are also able to implement an intervention mix. Here, trust seems to be the most important condition. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Economic Implications of Japan's Ageing Population: A Macro-economic Demographic Modelling Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogawa, Naohiro

1982-01-01

This study discusses the impact of the aging of the Japanese population upon various socioeconomic factors. Major findings are that the rate of real gross national product growth will decline continuously and that more financial resources will be required for government social security programs. (Editor/CT)

On the Sustainability and Management of a Model System with Ecological, Macroeconomic, and Legal Components

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainability is essentially about insuring that human existence can be indefinitely supported by the biological system of the Earth at an appropriate level of civilization. Hence, one of the most fundamental questions in sustainability is the extent to which human activities a...

Annual Energy Outlook

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

The Annual Energy Outlook provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and includes cases with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and energy policies. With strong domestic production and relatively flat demand, the United States becomes a net energy exporter over the projection period in most cases.

AEO Table Browser

EIA Publications

An interactive data viewer that provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and includes cases with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and energy policies. With strong domestic production and relatively flat demand, the United States becomes a net energy exporter over the projection period in most cases.

ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF INTEGRATED MODEL SYSTEMS WITH INDUSTRIAL, ECOLOGICAL, AND MACROECONOMIC COMPONENTS

EPA Science Inventory

At its core, sustainability asks whether the planet will persist into the indefinite future in a regime which is amenable to human existence. The issue of sustainability has ever increasing amounts of natural resources and causing a host of environmental impacts. The management o...

New explicit global asymptotic stability criteria for higher order difference equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Morshedy, Hassan A.

2007-12-01

New explicit sufficient conditions for the asymptotic stability of the zero solution of higher order difference equations are obtained. These criteria can be applied to autonomous and nonautonomous equations. The celebrated Clark asymptotic stability criterion is improved. Also, applications to models from mathematical biology and macroeconomics are given.

Massification and Diversification as Complementary Strategies for Economic Growth in Developed and Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tyndorf, Darryl; Glass, Chris R.

2016-01-01

Numerous microeconomic studies demonstrate the significant individual returns to tertiary education; however, little empirical evidence exists regarding the effects of higher education massification and diversification agendas on long-term macroeconomic growth. The researchers used the Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model to tertiary education…

JPRS Report, China.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-07-19

microeconomy and, on the surface, seem to neglect macroeconomic control. Not so, in fact. In a commodity economy, macroeconomic con- trol is indirect...control even as we go in for microeconomic vitalization. To zero in on the microeconomy is to begin with the basics and lay the foundation for

Essays in Education and Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrington, Christopher M.

2013-01-01

This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which…

Families in the context of macroeconomic crises: A systematic review.

PubMed

Fonseca, Gabriela; Cunha, Diana; Crespo, Carla; Relvas, Ana Paula

2016-09-01

The present study is a systematic review of empirical literature from the last 35 years on families' responses to economic distress in the context of macroeconomic crises. Thirty-nine studies published between 1983 and 2015 in 12 countries were identified, resulting in 3 main findings. First, economic distress was associated with negative changes in family dynamics, specifically couple relationships and parenting. Second, protective factors were found to buffer the adverse effects of economic distress on family and individual outcomes. Third, the results suggest that individual responses to macroeconomic crises may be moderated by sex. Implications for future research encompass using validated assessment instruments, including participants beyond 2-parent families with adolescent children and conducting both longitudinal and qualitative studies that focus on the processes and meanings of adaptation within this risk context. Conclusions highlighted the need to assist families dealing with macroeconomic crises' demands, encouraging the development and validation of macrosystemic intervention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The impact of macroeconomic variables on SMEs in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halim, F. A.; Malim, M. R.; Derasit, Z.; Rani, R. M.; Rashid, S. S.

2017-09-01

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia have gained a prominent role as the significant contributor to the economic growth. However, the world nowadays is heading towards economic downturn. The stability of macroeconomic variables promotes profitability of SMEs which propels them to a stage where they can access financing for sustaining growth. Therefore, it is apparent that the behaviour of the macroeconomic variables plays a major part in determining the nation’s backbone in surviving the economic downturn. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic variables on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia using multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that the exchange rate has a small positive impact on SME GDP growth rate (10.81%), the interest rate has a strong positive impact (60.74%), while the inflation rate has a strong negative impact (-53.89%). Therefore, it can be concluded that the interest rate and inflation rate have significant impacts on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia.

Understanding the null-to-small association between increased macroeconomic growth and reducing child undernutrition in India: role of development expenditures and poverty alleviation.

PubMed

Joe, William; Rajaram, Ramaprasad; Subramanian, S V

2016-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that macroeconomic growth in India is not correlated with any substantial reductions in the prevalence of child undernutrition over time. This study investigates the two commonly hypothesized pathways through which macroeconomic growth is expected to reduce child undernutrition: (1) an increase in public developmental expenditure and (2) a reduction in aggregate income-poverty levels. For the anthropometric data on children, we draw on the data from two cross-sectional waves of National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992-1993 and 2005-2006, while the data for per capita net state domestic product and per capita public spending on developmental expenditure and headcount ratio of poverty were obtained from the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of India expert committee reports. We find that between 1992-1993 and 2005-2006, state-level macroeconomic growth was not associated with any substantial increases in public development expenditure or substantial reductions in poverty at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the association between changes in public development expenditure or aggregate poverty and changes in undernutrition was small. In summary, it appears that the inability of macroeconomic growth to translate into reductions in child undernutrition in India is likely a consequence of the macroeconomic growth not translating into substantial investments in development expenditure that could matter for children's nutritional status and neither did it substantially improve incomes of the poor, a group where undernutrition is also the highest. The findings here build a case to advocate a 'support-led' strategy for reducing undernutrition rather than simply relying on a 'growth-mediated' strategy. Key messages Increases in macroeconomic growth have not been accompanied by substantial increases in public developmental spending or reduction in aggregate poverty headcount ratio in India. Association between increases in public development expenditure or poverty headcount ratios and changes in child undernutrition, in particular, child stunting, is small to null. Reducing the burden of undernutrition in India cannot be accomplished solely relying on a growth-mediated strategy, and a concerted support-led strategy is required. © 2016 The Authors. Maternal & Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding the null‐to‐small association between increased macroeconomic growth and reducing child undernutrition in India: role of development expenditures and poverty alleviation

PubMed Central

Joe, William; Rajaram, Ramaprasad

2016-01-01

Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that macroeconomic growth in India is not correlated with any substantial reductions in the prevalence of child undernutrition over time. This study investigates the two commonly hypothesized pathways through which macroeconomic growth is expected to reduce child undernutrition: (1) an increase in public developmental expenditure and (2) a reduction in aggregate income‐poverty levels. For the anthropometric data on children, we draw on the data from two cross‐sectional waves of National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992–1993 and 2005–2006, while the data for per capita net state domestic product and per capita public spending on developmental expenditure and headcount ratio of poverty were obtained from the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of India expert committee reports. We find that between 1992–1993 and 2005–2006, state‐level macroeconomic growth was not associated with any substantial increases in public development expenditure or substantial reductions in poverty at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the association between changes in public development expenditure or aggregate poverty and changes in undernutrition was small. In summary, it appears that the inability of macroeconomic growth to translate into reductions in child undernutrition in India is likely a consequence of the macroeconomic growth not translating into substantial investments in development expenditure that could matter for children's nutritional status and neither did it substantially improve incomes of the poor, a group where undernutrition is also the highest. The findings here build a case to advocate a ‘support‐led’ strategy for reducing undernutrition rather than simply relying on a ‘growth‐mediated’ strategy. Key messages Increases in macroeconomic growth have not been accompanied by substantial increases in public developmental spending or reduction in aggregate poverty headcount ratio in India.Association between increases in public development expenditure or poverty headcount ratios and changes in child undernutrition, in particular, child stunting, is small to null.Reducing the burden of undernutrition in India cannot be accomplished solely relying on a growth‐mediated strategy, and a concerted support‐led strategy is required. PMID:27187916

Macro-economic factors influencing the architectural business model shift in the pharmaceutical industry.

PubMed

Dierks, Raphaela Marie Louisa; Bruyère, Olivier; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Richy, Florent-Frederic

2016-10-01

Technological innovations, new regulations, increasing costs of drug productions and new demands are only few key drivers of a projected alternation in the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this review is to understand the macro economic factors responsible for the business model revolution to possess a competitive advantage over market players. Areas covered: Existing literature on macro-economic factors changing the pharmaceutical landscape has been reviewed to present a clear image of the current market environment. Expert commentary: Literature shows that pharmaceutical companies are facing an architectural alteration, however the evidence on the rationale driving the transformation is outstanding. Merger & Acquisitions (M&A) deals and collaborations are headlining the papers. Q1 2016 did show a major slowdown in M&A deals by volume since 2013 (with deal cancellations of Pfizer and Allergan, or the downfall of Valeant), but pharmaceutical analysts remain confident that this shortfall was a consequence of the equity market volatility. It seems likely that the shift to an M&A model will become apparent during the remainder of 2016, with deal announcements of Abbott Laboratories, AbbVie and Sanofi worth USD 45billion showing the appetite of big pharma companies to shift from the fully vertical integrated business model to more horizontal business models.

Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

PubMed

Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

1998-01-01

The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

Dynamics of Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2009-09-01

Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

Reconstructing Macroeconomics Based on Statistical Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoki, Masanao; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

We believe that time has come to integrate the new approach based on statistical physics or econophysics into macroeconomics. Toward this goal, there must be more dialogues between physicists and economists. In this paper, we argue that there is no reason why the methods of statistical physics so successful in many fields of natural sciences cannot be usefully applied to macroeconomics that is meant to analyze the macroeconomy comprising a large number of economic agents. It is, in fact, weird to regard the macroeconomy as a homothetic enlargement of the representative micro agent. We trust the bright future of the new approach to macroeconomies based on statistical physics.

Gates to retirement and gender differences: Macroeconomic conditions, job satisfaction, and age.

PubMed

Axelrad, Hila; Mcnamara, Tay K

2017-08-04

The different pathways out of the labor force have been the focus of many recent studies, yet not enough scholarly attention has been paid to the effect of country-level, individual, and job characteristics and their potentially different influence across genders. The current article examines the relationships between retirement decisions and macroeconomic conditions, personal characteristics, and job satisfaction, while focusing on gender differences. Data came from 16,337 respondents in 13 European countries that participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that the relative importance of macroeconomic conditions and job satisfaction differs by gender.

Three Essays on Macroeconomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doda, Lider Baran

This dissertation consists of three independent essays in macroeconomics. The first essay studies the transition to a low carbon economy using an extension of the neoclassical growth model featuring endogenous energy efficiency, exhaustible energy and explicit climate-economy interaction. I derive the properties of the laissez faire equilibrium and compare them to the optimal allocations of a social planner who internalizes the climate change externality. Three main results emerge. First, the exhaustibility of energy generates strong market based incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce CO 2 emissions without any government intervention. Second, the market and optimal allocations are substantially different suggesting a role for the government. Third, high and persistent taxes are required to implement the optimal allocations as a competitive equilibrium with taxes. The second essay focuses on coal fired power plants (CFPP) - one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions globally - and their generation efficiency using a macroeconomic model with an embedded CFPP sector. A key feature of the model is the endogenous choice of production technologies which differ in their energy efficiency. After establishing four empirical facts about the CFPP sector, I analyze the long run quantitative effects of energy taxes. Using the calibrated model, I find that sector-specific coal taxes have large effects on generation efficiency by inducing the use of more efficient technologies. Moreover, such taxes achieve large CO2 emissions reductions with relatively small effects on consumption and output. The final essay studies the procyclicality of fiscal policy in developing countries, which is a well-documented empirical observation seemingly at odds with Neoclassical and Keynesian policy prescriptions. I examine this issue by solving the optimal fiscal policy problem of a small open economy government when the interest rates on external debt are endogenous. Given an incomplete asset market, endogeneity is achieved by removing the government's ability to commit to repaying its external obligations. When calibrated to Argentina, the model generates procyclical government spending and countercyclical labor income tax rates. Simultaneously, the model's implications for key business cycle moments align well with the data.

Endogenous Crisis Waves: Stochastic Model with Synchronized Collective Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gualdi, Stanislao; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Cencetti, Giulia; Tarzia, Marco; Zamponi, Francesco

2015-02-01

We propose a simple framework to understand commonly observed crisis waves in macroeconomic agent-based models, which is also relevant to a variety of other physical or biological situations where synchronization occurs. We compute exactly the phase diagram of the model and the location of the synchronization transition in parameter space. Many modifications and extensions can be studied, confirming that the synchronization transition is extremely robust against various sources of noise or imperfections.

Advanced Placement Economics. Macroeconomics: Student Activities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morton, John S.

This book is designed to help advanced placement students better understand macroeconomic concepts through various activities. The book contains 6 units with 64 activities, sample multiple-choice questions, sample short essay questions, and sample long essay questions. The units are entitled: (1) "Basic Economic Concepts"; (2) "Measuring Economic…

Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCallum, Bennett T.

1994-01-01

Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

Self-Paced Economics Instruction: A Large-Scale Disaggregated Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soper, John C.; Thorton, Richard M.

1976-01-01

This paper reports on an evaluation of the Sterling Institute self-paced macroeconomics course at Northern Illinois University. Results show that a completely self-paced teaching format for macroeconomics is inferior to a well-directed, concept-oriented, graduate-student instructed, lecture-discussion taught course. (Author/RM)

Fractal attractors and singular invariant measures in two-sector growth models with random factor shares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Mendivil, Franklin; Privileggi, Fabio

2018-05-01

We analyze a multi-sector growth model subject to random shocks affecting the two sector-specific production functions twofold: the evolution of both productivity and factor shares is the result of such exogenous shocks. We determine the optimal dynamics via Euler-Lagrange equations, and show how these dynamics can be described in terms of an iterated function system with probability. We also provide conditions that imply the singularity of the invariant measure associated with the fractal attractor. Numerical examples show how specific parameter configurations might generate distorted copies of the Barnsley's fern attractor.

Ground-Ground Data Communication-Assisted Planning and Coordination: Shorter Verbal Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessell, Angela Mary; Lee, Paul U.; Smith, Nancy M.; Lee, Hwasoo Eric

2010-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to investigate the operational feasibility, technical requirements, and potential improvement in airspace efficiency of adding a Multi-Sector Planner position. A subset of the data from that simulation is analyzed here to determine the impact, if any, of ground-ground data communication (Data Comm) on verbal communication and coordination for multi-sector air traffic management. The results suggest that the use of Data Comm significantly decreases the duration of individual verbal communications. The results also suggest that the use of Data Comm, as instantiated in the current simulation, does not obviate the need for accompanying voice calls.

Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2014-05-01

We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

2014-12-01

The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

An Alternative to the Problematic Macro-Micro Structure of Introductory Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tinari, Frank D.

The paper explains an alternative structure to teaching micro and macroeconomic theory and describes the characteristics that make it an effective framework for introductory and principles courses. The teaching of economics principles typically proceeds by separating macroeconomic theory and microeconomic theory. But the use of the macro-micro…

The Challenge of Unemployment. A Report to Labour Ministers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report consists of an analysis of labor market conditions in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries and an exploration of possible future policy responses to the problems of unemployment. Covered in the labor market analysis are the following topics: the macro-economic environment (macro-economic trends…

Advanced Placement Economics. Teacher Resource Manual.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morton, John S.

This book, in conjunction with the student activities books for macroeconomics and microeconomics, is designed for teaching the Advanced Placement Economics course. The book contains five units for the microeconomic portion and six units for the macroeconomic portion of the text. Along with the many activities are sample multiple-choice questions,…

On Teaching a Fractured Macroeconomics: Thoughts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salemi, Michael K.

1987-01-01

Discusses Galbraith's (see SO516713) three major points, 1) that the Joint Council's "Framework" should not hide the fact that macroeconomics is messy and political; 2) that the emphasis in the "Framework" is misplaced; and 3) that in certain areas, such as aggregate supply and demand, it is wrong. (JDH)

The Readability of Principles of Macroeconomics Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tinkler, Sarah; Woods, James

2013-01-01

The authors evaluated principles of macroeconomics textbooks for readability using Coh-Metrix, a computational linguistics tool. Additionally, they conducted an experiment on Amazon's Mechanical Turk Web site in which participants ranked the readability of text samples. There was a wide range of scores on readability indexes both among…

Predicting U.S. food demand in the 20th century: a new look at system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorthy, Mukund; Cellier, Francois E.; LaFrance, Jeffrey T.

1998-08-01

The paper describes a new methodology for predicting the behavior of macroeconomic variables. The approach is based on System Dynamics and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. A four- layer pseudo-hierarchical model is proposed. The bottom layer makes predications about population dynamics, age distributions among the populace, as well as demographics. The second layer makes predications about the general state of the economy, including such variables as inflation and unemployment. The third layer makes predictions about the demand for certain goods or services, such as milk products, used cars, mobile telephones, or internet services. The fourth and top layer makes predictions about the supply of such goods and services, both in terms of their prices. Each layer can be influenced by control variables the values of which are only determined at higher levels. In this sense, the model is not strictly hierarchical. For example, the demand for goods at level three depends on the prices of these goods, which are only determined at level four. Yet, the prices are themselves influenced by the expected demand. The methodology is exemplified by means of a macroeconomic model that makes predictions about US food demand during the 20th century.

Water resources planning in a strategic context: Linking the water sector to the national economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Peter; Hurst, Christopher; Harshadeep, Nagaraja

1993-07-01

In many parts of the developing world investment in water resources takes a large proportion of the available public investment funds. As the conflicts for funds between the water and other sectors become more severe, the traditional ways of analyzing and planning water investments has to move away from project-by-project (or even a river basin-by-river basin) approaches to include the relationships of water investments to other sectors and to overall national development policies. Current approaches to water resources investments are too narrow. There is a need for ways to expand the strategic thinking of water sector managers. This paper develops a water resources planning methodology with the primary objective of giving insights into the linking of water sector investments and macroeconomic policies. The model optimizes the present value of investments for water resources development, while embedding a macroeconomic model into the framework to allow for an examination of the interactions between water investments, the growth in the agricultural sector, and the performance of the overall economy. A case study of Bangladesh is presented which shows how strategic thinking could lead to widely differing implications for water investments than would conventional water resources systems planning models.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

PubMed

Ionides, Edward L; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A

2013-10-03

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

PubMed Central

Ionides, Edward L.; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A.

2013-01-01

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association. PMID:24587843

The Economic Consequences Of Mortality Amenable To High-Quality Health Care In Low- And Middle-Income Countries.

PubMed

Alkire, Blake C; Peters, Alexander W; Shrime, Mark G; Meara, John G

2018-06-01

We estimated deaths amenable to high-quality health care globally and then modeled the macroeconomic impact in low- and middle-income countries using two macroeconomic perspectives: a value-of-lost-output approach to project gross domestic product (GDP) losses annually for the period 2015-30, and a value-of-lost-welfare approach to estimate the present value of total economic welfare losses in 2015. We estimated that eight million amenable deaths occurred in 2015, 96 percent of them in low- and middle-income countries. The value of lost output resulted in a projected cumulative loss of $11.2 trillion in these countries during 2015-30, with a potential economic output loss of up to 2.6 percent of GDP in low-income countries by 2030, compared to 0.9 percent in upper-middle-income countries. The value-of-lost-welfare approach estimated welfare losses of $6.0 trillion in 2015. Inadequate access to high-quality health care results in significant mortality and imposes a macroeconomic burden that is inequitably distributed, with the largest relative burden falling on low-income countries. Given that these deaths are unnecessary and the projected GDP losses are avoidable, there is a strong ethical and economic case for promoting high-quality health care as an essential component of universal health coverage.

Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama was chosen as study area, and further application of PyDEM was discussed.

A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Easing the pain of an economic downturn: macroeconomic conditions and excessive alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Dávalos, María E; Fang, Hai; French, Michael T

2012-11-01

Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This article investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An application of robust ridge regression model in the presence of outliers to real data problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shariff, N. S. Md.; Ferdaos, N. A.

2017-09-01

Multicollinearity and outliers are often leads to inconsistent and unreliable parameter estimates in regression analysis. The well-known procedure that is robust to multicollinearity problem is the ridge regression method. This method however is believed are affected by the presence of outlier. The combination of GM-estimation and ridge parameter that is robust towards both problems is on interest in this study. As such, both techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between stock market price and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia due to curiosity of involving the multicollinearity and outlier problem in the data set. There are four macroeconomic factors selected for this study which are Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Base Lending Rate (BLR) and Money Supply (M1). The results demonstrate that the proposed procedure is able to produce reliable results towards the presence of multicollinearity and outliers in the real data.

EASING THE PAIN OF AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND EXCESSIVE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION

PubMed Central

DÁVALOS, MARÍA E.; FANG, HAI; FRENCH, MICHAEL T.

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This paper investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. PMID:21913282

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

PubMed

Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

2007-01-01

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

Instituting a Monetary Economy in a Semester-Long Macroeconomics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valcarcel, Victor J.

2013-01-01

The author provides a general model to incentivize student involvement in an economics course on an ongoing basis. Rather than presenting students with a discrete number of diverse experiments to illustrate different economic concepts, he opts for the adoption of a single experiment that lives for the duration of the semester. This approach…

The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Benjamin M.

2013-01-01

The standard workhorse models of monetary policy now commonly in use, both for teaching macro-economics to students and for supporting policymaking within many central banks, are incapable of incorporating the most widely accepted accounts of how the 2007-9 financial crisis occurred and are incapable too of analyzing the actions that monetary…

Employment and the Reduction of the Work Week: A Comparison of Seven European Macro-economic Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Ginneken, Wouter

1984-01-01

Analyzes the impact of a reduced work week on employment, productivity, wages, investment, economic growth, inflation, and government deficits. Concludes that reducing working hours would have greater effect if accompanied by wage reductions and limitation of overtime, but would not affect underlying causes of unemployment. (SK)

Understanding Recession and Self-Rated Health with the Partial Proportional Odds Model: An Analysis of 26 Countries

PubMed Central

Mayer, Adam; Foster, Michelle

2015-01-01

Introduction Self-rated health is demonstrated to vary substantially by both personal socio-economic status and national economic conditions. However, studies investigating the combined influence of individual and country level economic indicators across several countries in the context of recent global recession are limited. This paper furthers our knowledge of the effect of recession on health at both the individual and national level. Methods Using the Life in Transition II study, which provides data from 19,759 individuals across 26 European nations, we examine the relationship between self-rated health, personal economic experiences, and macro-economic change. Data analyses include, but are not limited to, the partial proportional odds model which permits the effect of predictors to vary across different levels of our dependent variable. Results Household experiences with recession, especially a loss of staple good consumption, are associated with lower self-rated health. Most individual-level experiences with recession, such as a job loss, have relatively small negative effects on perceived health; the effect of individual or household economic hardship is strongest in high income nations. Our findings also suggest that macroeconomic growth improves self-rated health in low-income nations but has no effect in high-income nations. Individuals with the greatest probability of “good” self-rated health reside in wealthy countries ($23,910 to $50, 870 GNI per capita). Conclusion Both individual and national economic variables are predictive of self-rated health. Personal and household experiences are most consequential for self-rated health in high income nations, while macroeconomic growth is most consequential in low-income nations. PMID:26513660

Macroeconomic conditions and opioid abuse.

PubMed

Hollingsworth, Alex; Ruhm, Christopher J; Simon, Kosali

2017-12-01

We examine how deaths and emergency department (ED) visits related to use of opioid analgesics (opioids) and other drugs vary with macroeconomic conditions. As the county unemployment rate increases by one percentage point, the opioid death rate per 100,000 rises by 0.19 (3.6%) and the opioid overdose ED visit rate per 100,000 increases by 0.95 (7.0%). Macroeconomic shocks also increase the overall drug death rate, but this increase is driven by rising opioid deaths. Our findings hold when performing a state-level analysis, rather than county-level; are primarily driven by adverse events among whites; and are stable across time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2010

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Ozanne, Frank Russek, Marika Santoro, Kurt Seibert, Sven Sinclair, and David Weiner carried out the modeling . Barry Blom of CBO’s Projections Unit...Baseline Policy Assumptions 15 Ways in Which the President’s Proposals Would Affect the Economy 15 The Models and Their Results 21 The Potential Economic...Effects of Selected Proposals in the President’s 2010 Budget 27 The Models Used to Analyze the Supply-Side Macroeconomic Effects of the President’s

A New Set of Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

correcting forces is the free market itself. Unfortunately, macroeconomic principles do not always prove useful at the microeconomic level...model for this discussion are not relevant, but the underlying principle of the model is—forces can be self-correcting. Any im- balance in one...Performance-based acqui- sition appears to be one of those principles that looks good on paper and has proved quite successful in private industry but has had

The Economic Effects of Reduced Defense Spending

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-02-01

Macroeconomics Annual 1987 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press), pp. 263-315; and Leonardo Leiderman and Mario Blejer, " Modeling and Testing Ricardian ... model ), converting LIFT’s 78-sector forecasts of final demand by product to estimates for some 420 producing sectors. Unlike LIFT, DOM does not...24s in production in Fort Worth, Texas, during World War II. Photo is courtesy of Gen- eral Dynamics Corporation. Preface The past three years

Problem-Based Learning and High School Macroeconomics: A Comparative Study of Instructional Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maxwell, Nan L.; Mergendoller, John R.; Bellisimo, Yolanda

2005-01-01

The authors examined the potential differences between problem-based learning (PBL) and traditional instructional approaches in building knowledge of macroeconomic concepts and principles in high school students. Using data from 252 economics students at 11 high schools and controlling for individual characteristics, most notably verbal ability,…

Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

University of Pennsylvania Smetters@wharton.upenn.edu David Torregrosa Macroeconomic Analysis Division Congressional Budget Office...Office, Macroeconomic Analysis Division,Second and D Streets SW,Washington,DC,20515-6925 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING...exceeds $40 trillion (Bank for International Settlements 2007), or over eighty times the capital reserves of the entire insurance industry worldwide

Teaching Critical Thinking: An Investigation of a Task in Introductory Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Anna

2004-01-01

This paper is an investigation of understandings of critical thinking from two teaching perspectives: academic staff and tutors. It explores critical thinking as situated within an assessment task in introductory macroeconomics. This study found that while the two academic staff conceptualized critical thinking as a set of concrete cognitive…

How Do Transfer Students Perform in Economics? Evidence from Intermediate Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asarta, Carlos J.; Fuess, Scott M., Jr.; Perumal, Andrew

2013-01-01

For students taking intermediate-level economics, does it matter where they studied principles of economics? Does transferring college credit influence subsequent academic performance in economics? With a sample covering 1999-2008, the authors analyze in this article a group of nearly 1,000 students taking intermediate macroeconomics at a…

Academic Efforts and Study Habits among Students in a Principles of Macroeconomics Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okpala, Amon O.; Okpala, Comfort O.; Ellis, Richard

2000-01-01

Students in a macroeconomics course (n=132) were compared on grade point average, academic efficacy, credit hours accumulated, and study hours/habits. Academic efficacy and study habits significantly explained achievement. The amount of study time had no significant impact. Scholastic Assessment Test scores and credit hours explained achievement…

Teaching with Data in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhuang, Hong

2012-01-01

Economic data play an important role in the study of macroeconomics. Teaching with data through interactive classes can engage students more fully in the learning process. Although the pedagogy of teaching with data has been widely applied in the undergraduate science classroom, its extension to the economics classroom is rarely discussed. This…

The Use of Narrative Interview in Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dalton, Peggy

2010-01-01

The author describes the design and implementation of one experiential learning assignment used in a principles of macroeconomics course. The learning exercise provides an active role for students and results in a relational experience that provides traditional undergraduate students with a frame of reference with which to interpret the impact of…

The Response of US College Enrollment to Unexpected Changes in Macroeconomic Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewing, Kris M.; Beckert, Kim A.; Ewing, Bradley T.

2010-01-01

This paper estimates the extent and magnitude of US college and university enrollment responses to unanticipated changes in macroeconomic activity. In particular, we consider the relationship between enrollment, economic growth, and inflation. A time series analysis known as a vector autoregression is estimated and impulse response functions are…

Associations Between the Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in India: Two Ecological Studies.

PubMed

Rajkumar, Anto P; Senthilkumar, P; Gayathri, K; Shyamsundar, G; Jacob, K S

2015-01-01

While western studies have focused on the importance of psychiatric illnesses in the complex pathways leading to suicides, several Indian studies have highlighted the important contributions by economic, social, and cultural factors. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that annual national suicide rates and suicide rates of the different states in India were associated with macroeconomic indices. Data from the National crime records bureau, Ministry of finance, labour bureau, Government of India, population commission, and planning commission official portals, World Bank and the United Nations were accessed. We assessed the correlations of annual national and state-wise suicide rates with macroeconomic, health, and other indices using ecological study design for India, and for its different states and union territories. We documented statistically significant associations between the suicide rates and per capita gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign exchange, trade balance, total health expenditure as well as literacy rates. As recent economic growth in India is associated with increasing suicide rates, macroeconomic policies emphasizing equitable distribution of resources may help curtailing the population suicide rates in India.

Associations Between the Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in India: Two Ecological Studies

PubMed Central

Rajkumar, Anto P.; Senthilkumar, P.; Gayathri, K.; Shyamsundar, G.; Jacob, K. S.

2015-01-01

Background: While western studies have focused on the importance of psychiatric illnesses in the complex pathways leading to suicides, several Indian studies have highlighted the important contributions by economic, social, and cultural factors. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that annual national suicide rates and suicide rates of the different states in India were associated with macroeconomic indices. Materials and Methods: Data from the National crime records bureau, Ministry of finance, labour bureau, Government of India, population commission, and planning commission official portals, World Bank and the United Nations were accessed. We assessed the correlations of annual national and state-wise suicide rates with macroeconomic, health, and other indices using ecological study design for India, and for its different states and union territories. Results: We documented statistically significant associations between the suicide rates and per capita gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign exchange, trade balance, total health expenditure as well as literacy rates. Conclusions: As recent economic growth in India is associated with increasing suicide rates, macroeconomic policies emphasizing equitable distribution of resources may help curtailing the population suicide rates in India. PMID:26664075

Macroeconomic policies and increasing social-health inequality in Iran

PubMed Central

Zaboli, Rouhollah; Seyedin, Seyed Hesam; Malmoon, Zainab

2014-01-01

Background: Health is a complex phenomenon that can be studied from different approaches. Despite a growing research in the areas of Social Determinants of Health (SDH) and health equity, effects of macroeconomic policies on the social aspect of health are unknown in developing countries. This study aimed to determine the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing of the social-health inequality in Iran. Methods: This study was a mixed method research. The study population consisted of experts dealing with social determinants of health. A purposive, stratified and non-random sampling method was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to collect the data along with a multiple attribute decision-making method for the quantitative phase of the research in which the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was employed for prioritization. The NVivo and MATLAB softwares were used for data analysis. Results: Seven main themes for the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing the social-health inequality were identified. The result of TOPSIS approved that the inflation and economic instability exert the greatest impact on social-health inequality, with an index of 0.710 and the government policy in paying the subsidies with a 0.291 index has the lowest impact on social-health inequality in the country. Discussion: It is required to invest on the social determinants of health as a priority to reduce health inequality. Also, evaluating the extent to which the future macroeconomic policies impact the health of population is necessary. PMID:25197677

Macroeconomic policies and increasing social-health inequality in Iran.

PubMed

Zaboli, Rouhollah; Seyedin, Seyed Hesam; Malmoon, Zainab

2014-08-01

Health is a complex phenomenon that can be studied from different approaches. Despite a growing research in the areas of Social Determinants of Health (SDH) and health equity, effects of macroeconomic policies on the social aspect of health are unknown in developing countries. This study aimed to determine the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing of the social-health inequality in Iran. This study was a mixed method research. The study population consisted of experts dealing with social determinants of health. A purposive, stratified and non-random sampling method was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to collect the data along with a multiple attribute decision-making method for the quantitative phase of the research in which the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was employed for prioritization. The NVivo and MATLAB softwares were used for data analysis. Seven main themes for the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing the social-health inequality were identified. The result of TOPSIS approved that the inflation and economic instability exert the greatest impact on social-health inequality, with an index of 0.710 and the government policy in paying the subsidies with a 0.291 index has the lowest impact on social-health inequality in the country. It is required to invest on the social determinants of health as a priority to reduce health inequality. Also, evaluating the extent to which the future macroeconomic policies impact the health of population is necessary.

Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

2012-12-01

The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government policies in China on the changes of dynamics of GDP and the three industries adjustment. The work in our paper provides a new way to understand the dynamics of economic development.

Economic cycles and their synchronization: Spectral analysis of macroeconomic series from Italy, The Netherlands, and the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sella, Lisa; Vivaldo, Gianna; Ghil, Michael; Groth, Andreas

2010-05-01

The present work applies several advanced spectral methods (Ghil et al., Rev. Geophys., 2002) to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. These methods provide valuable time-and-frequency-domain tools that complement traditional time-domain analysis, and are thus fairly well known by now in the geosciences and life sciences, but not yet widespread in quantitative economics. In particular, they enable the identification and characterization of nonlinear trends and dominant cycles --- including low-frequency and seasonal components --- that characterize the behavior of each time series. We explore five fundamental indicators of the real (i.e., non-monetary), aggregate economy --- namely gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, fixed investments, exports and imports --- in a univariate as well as multivariate setting. A single-channel analysis by means of three independent spectral methods --- singular spectrum analysis (SSA), the multi-taper method (MTM), and the maximum-entropy method (MEM) --- reveals very similar near-annual cycles, as well as several longer periodicities, in the macroeconomic indicators of all the countries analyzed. Since each indicator represents different features of an economic system, we combine them to infer if common oscillatory modes are present, either among different indicators within the same country or among the same indicators across different countries. Multichannel-SSA (M-SSA) reinforces the previous results, and shows that the common modes agree in character with solutions of a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) that produces endogenous business cycles (Hallegatte et al., JEBO, 2008). The presence of these modes in NEDyM results from adjustment delays and other nonequilibrium effects that were added to a neoclassical Solow (Q. J. Econ., 1956) growth model. Their confirmation by the present analysis has important consequences for the net impact of natural disasters on the economy of a country: Hallegatte and Ghil (Ecol. Econ., 2008) have shown that the presence of business cycles modifies substantially this impact with respect to their impact on an economy in or near equilibrium. The present work concludes with a study of the synchronization of economic fluctuations, which follows a similar study of macroeconomic indicators for the United States, presented in a nearby poster. Since business cycles are not country-specific phenomena, but show common characteristics across countries, our aim is to uncover hidden global behavior across the European economies (cf. Mazzi and Savio, Macmillan, 2006).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

Resource Limitations, the Demand for Education and Economic Growth--A Macroeconomic View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stam, Jerome M.

To develop a theoretical framework for explaining the observed change in demand for human skill and knowledge that occurs with economic growth, a macroeconomic analysis was made of economic variables which are influenced by political, social, and cultural factors. In the three-dimensional framework, total output (Y) of all final goods and services…

Using the Student Research Project to Integrate Macroeconomics and Statistics in an Advanced Cost Accounting Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassan, Mahamood M.; Schwartz, Bill N.

2014-01-01

This paper discusses a student research project that is part of an advanced cost accounting class. The project emphasizes active learning, integrates cost accounting with macroeconomics and statistics by "learning by doing" using real world data. Students analyze sales data for a publicly listed company by focusing on the company's…

Data-Based Active Learning in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course: A Mock FOMC Meeting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiting, Cathleen

2006-01-01

The author presents an active-learning exercise for the introductory macroeconomics class in which students participate in a mock Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Preparation involves data gathering and writing both a research report and a policy recommendation. An FOMC meeting is simulated in which students give their policy…

Studying Absenteeism in Principles of Macroeconomics: Do Attendance Policies Make a Difference?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Self, Sharmistha

2012-01-01

The primary objective of this article is to see if and how attendance policy influences class attendance in undergraduate-level principles of macroeconomics classes. The second objective, which is related to the first, is to examine whether the nature of the attendance policy matters in terms of its impact on class attendance behavior. The results…

Governance and Foreign Aid Allocation

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

the promotion of market-based principles to restructure macroeconomic policies in developing countries. The greater focus on...the effectiveness of aid in promoting development outcomes. In doing so, I use augmented neoclassical growth framework following Mankiw et al (1992...health care and basic education, macroeconomic reforms and opening markets, the main objective of western foreign aid was to stop newly independent

Time to Shift from Macro- to Micro-Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cho, Dongchul; Shin, Sukha

2012-01-01

All of the authors seem to share the perception that one can no longer expect much from macroeconomic policies. The authors of this paper share this opinion, but this should not be interpreted as the skeptical view that macroeconomic policies are ineffective on employment. They saw from the Korea's two crises how contrasting outcomes could result…

Enhancing Student Learning and Critical Thinking through Academic Controversy in Post Secondary Macroeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santicola, Craig F.

2011-01-01

There is a lack of student learning and critical thinking skills in post-secondary macroeconomics courses. The literature indicates that the lack of learning outcomes can be attributed to the reliance on traditional lecture and the failure to adopt innovative instructional techniques. The purpose of this study was to investigate the student…

Extending the Principles of Intensive Writing to Large Macroeconomics Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Docherty, Peter; Tse, Harry; Forman, Ross; McKenzie, Jo

2010-01-01

The authors report on the design and implementation of a pilot program to extend the principles of intensive writing outlined by W. Lee Hansen (1998), Murray S. Simpson and Shireen E. Carroll (1999) and David Carless (2006) to large macroeconomics classes. The key aspect of this program was its collaborative nature, with staff from two specialist…

Pilot Study: Impact of Computer Simulation on Students' Economic Policy Performance. Pilot Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Domazlicky, Bruce; France, Judith

Fiscal and monetary policies taught in macroeconomic principles courses are concepts that might require both lecture and simulation methods. The simulation models, which apply the principles gleened from comparative statistics to a dynamic world, may give students an appreciation for the problems facing policy makers. This paper is a report of a…

BASIC Programming for the Integration of Money, Demand Deposits Creation, and the Hicksian-Keynesian Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tom, C. F. Joseph

Money, banking, and macroeconomic textbooks traditionally present the topics of money, the creation of demand deposits by depository institutions, and the Hicksian-Keynesian Theory of Income and Interest separately, as if they were unrelated. This paper presents an integrated approach to those subjects using computer programs written in BASIC, the…

Is Materialism All That Bad? Effects on Satisfaction with Material Life, Life Satisfaction, and Economic Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sirgy, M. Joseph; Gurel-Atay, Eda; Webb, Dave; Cicic, Muris; Husic-Mehmedovic, Melika; Ekici, Ahmet; Herrmann, Andreas; Hegazy, Ibrahim; Lee, Dong-Jin; Johar, J. S.

2013-01-01

The literature in economic psychology and quality-of-life studies alludes to a negative relationship between materialism and life satisfaction. In contrast, the macroeconomic literature implies a positive relationship between material consumption and economic growth. That is, materialism may be both good and bad. We develop a model that reconciles…

Marketing technology in macroeconomics.

PubMed

Tamegawa, Kenichi

2012-01-01

In this paper, we incorporate a marketing technology into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model by assuming a matching friction for consumption. An improvement in matching can be interpreted as an increase in matching technology, which we call marketing technology because of similar properties. Using a simulation analysis, we confirm that a positive matching technology shock can increase output and consumption.

Why an SO/sub 2/ emission tax is an unpopular policy instrument: Simulation results from a general equilibrium model of the Norwegian economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, D.A.; Alfsen, K.H.

1986-01-01

Norway, together with some twenty other countries, signed the Helsinki treaty in July 1985 for the purpose of reducing SO/sub 2/ emissions. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the emission reductions that could be achieved using a tax on SO/sub 2/ emissions, as well as the indirect impacts on the economy. Simulations of the economic impact of the tax (which effectively increases the cost of using energy) were made using the Multi-Sectoral Growth (MSG) model. Results of the simulations indicated a larger than expected reduction in economic output.

Cultural values: can they explain self-reported health?

PubMed

Roudijk, Bram; Donders, Rogier; Stalmeier, Peep

2017-06-01

Self-reported health (SRH) is a measure widely used in health research and population studies. Differences in SRH have been observed between countries and cultural values have been hypothesized to partly explain such differences. Cultural values can be operationalized by two cultural dimensions using the World Values Survey (WVS), namely the traditional/rational-secular and the survival/self-expression dimension. We investigate whether there is an association between the WVS cultural dimensions and SRH, both within and between countries. Data from 51 countries in the WVS is used and combined with macroeconomic data from the Worldbank database. The association between SRH and the WVS cultural dimensions is tested within each of the 51 countries and multilevel mixed models are used to test differences between these countries. Socio-demographic and macroeconomic variables are used to correct for non-cultural variables related to SRH. Within countries, the survival/self-expression dimension was positively associated with SRH, while in most countries there was a negative association for the traditional/rational-secular dimension. Values range between 4 and 17% within countries. Further analyses show that the associations within countries and between countries are similar. Controlling for macroeconomic and socio-demographic factors did not change our results. The WVS cultural dimensions predict SRH within and between countries. Contrary to our expectations, traditional/rational-secular values were negatively associated with SRH. As SRH is associated with cultural values between countries, cultural values could be considered when interpreting SRH between countries.

Economic Evaluation of New Technologies in Higher Education. N.I.E. Report Phase 1, Volume 7 of 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh (Scotland). Esmee Fairbairn Economics Research Centre.

Part of a series of instructional packages for use in college level economics courses, this document contains nine lecture outlines on macroeconomics. The first section deals with basic macroeconomic concepts in terms of underlying microeconomic behavior, national income and product accounting, nominal and real GNP, actual and potential GNP, and…

Using the Test of Understanding in College Economics (TUCE III) To Evaluate GCC's Macroeconomics Course: An Analysis and Subsequent Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petrowsky, Michael C.

In spring 1996, Arizona's Glendale Community College (GCC) undertook an evaluation of an introductory macroeconomics course using the national Test of Understanding in College Economics (TUCE III). Specifically, the study sought to determine how GCC student outcomes compared to national results on the TUCE III and if the college's macroeconomics…

Review and Evaluation of the College Level Examination Program for Introductory Macroeconomics for Providing Credit by Exam.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reichheld, Charles A., III

At Cuyahoga Community College (CCC), the College-Level Examination Program (CLEP) for Introductory Macroeconomics Test was evaluated to determine if it was an effective tool for providing credit by examination for the college's Principles of Economics course. Though students at the present time (1991) can take the CLEP to obtain up to 45 credits…

Mozambique's Debt and the International Monetary Fund's Influence on Poverty, Education, and Health.

PubMed

Beste, Jason; Pfeiffer, James

2016-01-01

For nearly 30 years, Mozambique has been facing austerity measures regulated by the IMF. These austerity measures, grounded in macroeconomic policies, were supposed to lift Mozambique out of poverty, and improve its healthcare and education systems. By taking an in-depth look at the major etiologies of Mozambique's debt and the conditions which forced the country to accept austerity measures-despite their protests-prior to receiving IMF funding, this paper examines how IMF policies over the past 30 years have affected poverty, health, and the education system. The results of these policies have contributed to Mozambique's enduring classification as one of the poorest countries in the world. Aside from economic outcomes, Mozambique also has abysmal health and education systems, with one of the lowest life expectancies in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is time to re-evaluate how the current IMF macroeconomic policies negatively affect, health, education and the socioeconomic status of those who live in abject poverty. As short term macroeconomic policies of PARPA have been ineffective at reducing poverty, promoting education and improving health, the IMF should consider using longer term macroeconomic policies which invest in-rather than limit-public services such as health and education. © The Author(s) 2016.

Demographics and macroeconomic effects in aesthetic surgery in the UK.

PubMed

Duncan, C O; Ho-Asjoe, M; Hittinger, R; Nishikawa, H; Waterhouse, N; Coghlan, B; Jones, B

2004-09-01

Media interest in aesthetic surgery is substantial and suggestions of demographic changes such as reductions in age or an increase in the number of male patients are common. In spite of this, there is no peer reviewed literature reporting demographics of a contemporary large patient cohort or of the effect of macroeconomic indicators on aesthetic surgery in the UK. In this study, computer records 13006 patients presenting between 1998 and the first quarter of 2003 at a significant aesthetic surgery centre were analysed for procedures undergone, patient age and sex. Male to female ratios for each procedure were calculated and a comparison was made between unit activity and macroeconomic indicators. The results showed that there has been no significant demographic change in the procedures studied with patient age and male to female ratio remaining constant throughout the period studied for each procedure. Comparison with macroeconomic indicators suggested increasing demand for aesthetic surgery in spite of a global recession. In conclusion, media reports of large scale demographic shifts in aesthetic surgery patients are exaggerated. The stability of unit activity in spite of falling national economic indicators suggested that some units in the UK might be relatively immune to economic vagaries. The implications for training are discussed.

Emission Projections for Long-Haul Freight Trucks and Rail in the United States through 2050.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; Hwang, Taesung; Lee, Sungwon; Ouyang, Yanfeng; Lee, Bumsoo; Smith, Steven J; Yan, Fang; Daenzer, Kathryn; Bond, Tami C

2015-10-06

This work develops an integrated model approach for estimating emissions from long-haul freight truck and rail transport in the United States between 2010 and 2050. We connect models of macroeconomic activity, freight demand by commodity, transportation networks, and emission technology to represent different pathways of future freight emissions. Emissions of particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total hydrocarbon (THC) decrease by 60%-70% from 2010 to 2030, as older vehicles built to less-stringent emission standards retire. Climate policy, in the form of carbon tax that increases apparent fuel prices, causes a shift from truck to rail, resulting in a 30% reduction in fuel consumption and a 10%-28% reduction in pollutant emissions by 2050, if rail capacity is sufficient. Eliminating high-emitting conditions in the truck fleet affects air pollutants by 20% to 65%; although these estimates are highly uncertain, they indicate the importance of durability in vehicle engines and emission control systems. Future infrastructure investment will be required both to meet transport demand and to enable actions that reduce emissions of air and climate pollutants. By driving the integrated model framework with two macroeconomic scenarios, we show that the effect of carbon tax on air pollution is robust regardless of growth levels.

Politics, policies and processes: a multidisciplinary and multimethods research programme on policies on the social determinants of health inequity in Australia

PubMed Central

Baum, Fran; Friel, Sharon

2017-01-01

Introduction The development and implementation of multisectoral policy to improve health and reduce health inequities has been slow and uneven. Evidence is largely focused on the facts of health inequities rather than understanding the political and policy processes. This 5-year funded programme of research investigates how these processes could function more effectively to improve equitable population health. Methods and analysis The programme of work is organised in four work packages using four themes (macroeconomics and infrastructure, land use and urban environments, health systems and racism) related to the structural drivers shaping the distribution of power, money and resources and daily living conditions. Policy case studies will use publicly available documents (policy documents, published evaluations, media coverage) and interviews with informants (policy-makers, former politicians, civil society, private sector) (~25 per case). NVIVO software will be used to analyse the documents to see how ‘social and health equity’ is included and conceptualised. The interview data will include qualitative descriptive and theory-driven critical discourse analysis. Our quantitative methodological work assessing the impact of public policy on health equity is experimental that is in its infancy but promises to provide the type of evidence demanded by policy-makers. Ethics and dissemination Our programme is recognising the inherently political nature of the uptake, formulation and implementation of policy. The early stages of our work indicate its feasibility. Our work is aided by a Critical Policy Reference Group. Multiple ethics approvals have been obtained with the foundation approval from the Social and Behavioural Ethics Committee, Flinders University (Project No: 6786). The theoretical, methodological and policy engagement processes established will provide improved evidence for policy-makers who wish to reduce health inequities and inform a new generation of policy savvy knowledge on social determinants. PMID:29273655

Politics, policies and processes: a multidisciplinary and multimethods research programme on policies on the social determinants of health inequity in Australia.

PubMed

Baum, Fran; Friel, Sharon

2017-12-21

The development and implementation of multisectoral policy to improve health and reduce health inequities has been slow and uneven. Evidence is largely focused on the facts of health inequities rather than understanding the political and policy processes. This 5-year funded programme of research investigates how these processes could function more effectively to improve equitable population health. The programme of work is organised in four work packages using four themes (macroeconomics and infrastructure, land use and urban environments, health systems and racism) related to the structural drivers shaping the distribution of power, money and resources and daily living conditions. Policy case studies will use publicly available documents (policy documents, published evaluations, media coverage) and interviews with informants (policy-makers, former politicians, civil society, private sector) (~25 per case). NVIVO software will be used to analyse the documents to see how 'social and health equity' is included and conceptualised. The interview data will include qualitative descriptive and theory-driven critical discourse analysis. Our quantitative methodological work assessing the impact of public policy on health equity is experimental that is in its infancy but promises to provide the type of evidence demanded by policy-makers. Our programme is recognising the inherently political nature of the uptake, formulation and implementation of policy. The early stages of our work indicate its feasibility. Our work is aided by a Critical Policy Reference Group. Multiple ethics approvals have been obtained with the foundation approval from the Social and Behavioural Ethics Committee, Flinders University (Project No: 6786).The theoretical, methodological and policy engagement processes established will provide improved evidence for policy-makers who wish to reduce health inequities and inform a new generation of policy savvy knowledge on social determinants. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Macro-Econophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoyama, Hideaki; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Ikeda, Yuichi; Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Souma, Wataru; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

Preface; Foreword, Acknowledgements, List of tables; List of figures, prologue, 1. Introduction: reconstructing macroeconomics; 2. Basic concepts in statistical physics and stochastic models; 3. Income and firm-size distributions; 4. Productivity distribution and related topics; 5. Multivariate time-series analysis; 6. Business cycles; 7. Price dynamics and inflation/deflation; 8. Complex network, community analysis, visualization; 9. Systemic risks; Appendix A: computer program for beginners; Epilogue; Bibliography; Index.

Complex dynamics and empirical evidence (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gaffeo, Edoardo; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Gallegati, Mauro; Kirman, Alan; Palestrini, Antonio; Russo, Alberto

2005-05-01

Standard macroeconomics, based on a reductionist approach centered on the representative agent, is badly equipped to explain the empirical evidence where heterogeneity and industrial dynamics are the rule. In this paper we show that a simple agent-based model of heterogeneous financially fragile agents is able to replicate a large number of scaling type stylized facts with a remarkable degree of statistical precision.

Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guihua

Advanced vehicles and alternative fuels could play an important role in reducing oil use and changing the economy structure. We developed the Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model to investigate a vehicle portfolio scenario in California during 2010-2030. Then we employed a computable general equilibrium model to estimate macroeconomic impacts of the advanced vehicle scenario on the economy of California. Results indicate that, due to slow fleet turnover, conventional vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the on-road fleet and gasoline is the major transportation fuel over the next two decades. However, alternative fuels could play an increasingly important role in gasoline displacement. Advanced vehicle costs are expected to decrease dramatically with production volume and technological progress; e.g., incremental costs for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen could break even with gasoline savings in 2028. Overall, the vehicle portfolio scenario is estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California's economy, because advanced vehicles are very costly and, therefore, the resulting gasoline savings generally cannot offset the high incremental expenditure on vehicles and alternative fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in gasoline price or a drop in alternative fuel prices could offset a portion of the negative impact.

A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

DOE PAGES

Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael; ...

2016-10-21

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

The Road to the European Union: Macroeconomic Policy Challenges for Hungary and Poland. Fulbright-Hayes Summer Seminars Abroad Program, 2002 (Hungary and Poland).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramirez, Teresita R.

Prospects for the enlargement of the European Union (EU) became imminent when the EU Commission agreed in 1997 to open formal negotiations with five of the Central and Eastern European countries: (1) the Czech Republic; (2) Hungary; (3) Poland; (4) Slovenia; and (5) Estonia. This research project discusses macroeconomic policy challenges that…

The problem of natural funnel asymmetries: a simulation analysis of meta-analysis in macroeconomics.

PubMed

Callot, Laurent; Paldam, Martin

2011-06-01

Effect sizes in macroeconomic are estimated by regressions on data published by statistical agencies. Funnel plots are a representation of the distribution of the resulting regression coefficients. They are normally much wider than predicted by the t-ratio of the coefficients and often asymmetric. The standard method of meta-analysts in economics assumes that the asymmetries are because of publication bias causing censoring and adjusts the average accordingly. The paper shows that some funnel asymmetries may be 'natural' so that they occur without censoring. We investigate such asymmetries by simulating funnels by pairs of data generating processes (DGPs) and estimating models (EMs), in which the EM has the problem that it disregards a property of the DGP. The problems are data dependency, structural breaks, non-normal residuals, non-linearity, and omitted variables. We show that some of these problems generate funnel asymmetries. When they do, the standard method often fails. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evaluation index system of water security in China based on macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X. S.; Peng, Z. Y.; Li, T. T.

2016-08-01

This paper establishes an evaluation index system of water security. The index system employs 5 subsystems (water circulation security, water environment security, water ecology security, water society security and water economy security) and has 39 indicators. Using the AHP method, each indicator is given a relative weight to integrate within the whole system. With macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2012, a model of water security evaluation is applied to assess the state of water security in China. The results show an improving trend in the overall state of China's water security. In particular, the cycle of water security is at a high and low fluctuation. Water environment security presents an upward trend on the whole; however, this trend is unsteady and has shown a descending tendency in some years. Yet, water ecology security, water society security, and water economy security are basically on the rise. However, the degree of coordination of China's water security system remains in need of consolidation.

Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgin, Ferhat I.

My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected by the previous quarter's mark-up. Essay 3 empirically examines the determinants of the trade balance for a small oil exporting country within the context of Kazakhstan. The dominant theory by Harberger-Lauren-Metzler (HML) predicts that positive terms of trade shocks will improve the trade balance in the short run, but will fade away in the long run. I estimate cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and vector error correction model (VECM) to study the long-run and short-run impacts on the trade balance. The results suggest that, in the long run, an increase in the terms of trade has a positive effect on the trade balance, an increase in GDP and appreciation of the real effective exchange rate have negative effect on the trade balance. In the short run, the terms of trade has a direct positive impact on the trade balance, real income and real exchange rate. On the other hand, appreciation of the currency has a negative impact on the trade balance. The error correction term, which represents the deviation from the long- run equilibrium between the trade balance, real income, terms of trade and real exchange rate, has a negative effect on the growth rate of the trade balance. These results provide further evidence to the idea that, in the long run, the HML effect not only depends on the duration of the shock, but also depends on the structure of the economy.

Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales. PMID:24516601

Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

Interrelation of GDP and pension capital: Mathematical and econometrical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepp, A. N.; Dolgodvorov, A. D.

2016-12-01

This article is a mathematicalanalysis of the relationship between GDP and the development of funded pension systems. For this purpose, a mathematical formula was derived from the macro-economic GDP, proportional to the level of income and consumption for the dependence of GDP on the level of pension payments, the value of pension savings and the structure of compulsory contributions to the pension fund allocated to the distribution and accumulative pension system. A derivation of the equation proves the linear relationship of GDP and the share of pension contributions channeled to the funded pension system. Thus, the macroeconomic indicator with the larger negative impact on GDP was proven to be the elimination of the compulsory funded pension system. Based on the econometric analysis, the positive effect of the distributive pension system was proven on macroeconomic parameters.

Increasing compliance with alcohol service laws in a developing country: intervention trial in the Kingdom of Bhutan.

PubMed

Dorji, Gampo; DeJong, William; Bor, Jacob; Bachman DeSilva, Mary; Sabin, Lora; Feeley, Frank Rich; Udon, Pema; Wangchuk, Nima; Wangdi, Ugyen; Choden, Tshering; Gurung, Mongal Singh; Chogyel, Tandin; Wangchuk, Dorji; Kypri, Kypros

2016-03-01

Bhutan is a low-middle income country that, like many others, experiences significant alcohol-related harm and low compliance with laws restricting availability and promotion. This study assessed changes in compliance of alcohol outlets with sales restrictions following a multi-sector programme aimed at improving this. Pre-post design with covert observation of service practices. Thimphu, Bhutan, June-November 2013. Alcohol is not permitted for sale except from 1 to 10 p.m. Wednesday-Monday. Serving minors (< 18 years old) or intoxicated patrons is illegal. Seventy-one outlets selected randomly from all 209 on-premises outlets in downtown Thimphu. Multi-sector programme involving visits to outlets, education of owners and staff, a toolkit and implementation checks. Ten mystery-shopper visits were made to each outlet both before and after the intervention. We assessed compliance in five purchasing scenarios: (1) before 1 p.m., (2) after 10 p.m., (3) on Tuesdays and (4) shoppers who appeared to be underage or (5) intoxicated. Changes in compliance rates were assessed using multi-variable logistic regression models. Overall compliance increased from 20 to 34% [difference: 14%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7-22%]. Improvement was found in refusals of service before 1 p.m.: 10-34% (difference(adj) = 24%; 95% CI = 12-37%) and on Tuesdays: 43-58% (difference(adj) = 14%; 95% CI = 1-28%). Differences in refusal to serve alcohol: after 10 p.m. (difference(adj) = 15%; 95% CI = -8 to 37%); to underage patrons (difference(adj) = -5%; 95% CI = 14 to 4%); and to intoxicated patrons (difference(adj) = 7%; 95% CI = -7-20%) were not statistically significant. Younger servers, stand-alone bars and outlets permitting indoor smoking were each less likely to comply with the alcohol service laws. A multi-sector programme to improve compliance with legal restrictions on serving alcohol in Bhutan appeared to have a modest effect but even after the programme, in two-thirds of the occasions tested, the laws were broken. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

An Evaluation of the Cognitive and Affective Performance of an Integrated Set of CAI Materials in the Principles of Macroeconomics. Studies in Economic Education, No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daellenbach, Lawrence A.; And Others

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of computer assisted instruction (CAI) on the cognitive and affective development of college students enrolled in a principles of macroeconomics course. The hypotheses of the experiment were stated as follows: In relation to the traditional principles course, the experimental treatment will…

Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F

2015-01-01

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60-80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15-35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.

Climate Change and the Macroeconomic Structure in Pre-Industrial Europe: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F.

2015-01-01

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60–80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15–35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory. PMID:26039087

China Macroeconomic Model. Specification Report, User’s Guide, Scenario Report, Trade Data Sources Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-11-01

model, all linked to input-output flows from the relevant sector to all of the eleven sectors. They form an important analytical tool for gauging the...with very little in the way of intermediate inputs. However, most of coal is used up in intermediate inputs, as fuel for steel and other industrial...machine tools be developed even more rapidly as a domestic resource, rather than being imported? What about agricultural chemicals? China is unlikely

Dental care coverage and income-related inequalities in foregone dental care in Europe during the great recession.

PubMed

Elstad, Jon Ivar

2017-08-01

This study examines income inequalities in foregone dental care in 23 European countries during the years with global economic crisis. Associations between dental care coverage from public health budgets or social insurance, and income-related inequalities in perceived access to dental care, are analysed. Survey data 2008-2013 from 23 countries were combined with country data on macro-economic conditions and coverage for dental care. Foregone dental care was defined as self-reported abstentions from needed dental care because of costs or other crisis-related reasons. Age-standardized percentages reporting foregone dental care were estimated for respondents, age 20-74, in the lowest and highest income quartile. Associations between dental care coverage and income inequalities in foregone dental care, adjusted for macro-economic indicators, were examined by country-level regression models. In all 23 countries, respondents in the lowest income quartile reported significantly higher levels of foregone dental care than respondents in the highest quartile. During 2008-2013, income inequalities in foregone dental care widened significantly in 13 of 23 countries, but decreased in only three countries. Adjusted for countries' macro-economic situation and severity of the economic crisis, higher dental care coverage was significantly associated with smaller income inequalities in foregone dental care and less widening of these inequalities. Income-related inequalities in dental care have widened in Europe during the years with global economic crisis. Higher dental care coverage corresponded to less income-related inequalities in foregone dental care and less widening of these inequalities. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On macroeconomic characteristics of pharmaceutical generics and the potential for manufacturing and consumption under fuzzy conditions.

PubMed

Gascón, Fernando; de la Fuente, David; Puente, Javier; Lozano, Jesús

2007-11-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that is useful for analyzing, from a macroeconomic perspective, the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply features of the market of pharmaceutical generics. In order to determine the potential consumption and the potential production of pharmaceutical generics in different countries, two fuzzy decision support systems are proposed. Two fuzzy decision support systems, both based on the Mamdani model, were applied in this paper. These systems, generated by Matlab Toolbox 'Fuzzy' (v. 2.0), are able to determine the potential of a country for the manufacturing or the consumption of pharmaceutical generics. The systems make use of three macroeconomic input variables. In an empirical application of our proposed methodology, the potential towards consumption and manufacturing in Holland, Sweden, Italy and Spain has been estimated from national indicators. Cross-country comparisons are made and graphical surfaces are analyzed in order to interpret the results. The main contribution of this work is the development of a methodology that is useful for analyzing aggregate demand and aggregate supply characteristics of pharmaceutical generics. The methodology is valid for carrying out a systematic analysis of the potential generics have at a macrolevel in different countries. The main advantages of the use of fuzzy decision support systems in the context of pharmaceutical generics are the flexibility in the construction of the system, the speed in interpreting the results offered by the inference and surface maps and the ease with which a sensitivity analysis of the potential behavior of a given country may be performed.

Transurethral ultrasound applicators with dynamic multi-sector control for prostate thermal therapy: In vivo evaluation under MR guidance

PubMed Central

Kinsey, Adam M.; Diederich, Chris J.; Rieke, Viola; Nau, William H.; Pauly, Kim Butts; Bouley, Donna; Sommer, Graham

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the feasibility and performance of a multi-sectored tubular array transurethral ultrasound applicator for prostate thermal therapy, with potential to provide dynamic angular and length control of heating under MR guidance without mechanical movement of the applicator. Test configurations were fabricated, incorporating a linear array of two multi-sectored tubular transducers (7.8–8.4 MHz, 3 mm OD, 6 mm length), with three 120° independent active sectors per tube. A flexible delivery catheter facilitated water cooling (100 ml min−1) within an expandable urethral balloon (35 mm long×10 mm diameter). An integrated positioning hub allows for rotating and translating the transducer assembly within the urethral balloon for final targeting prior to therapy delivery. Rotational beam plots indicate ∼90°−100° acoustic output patterns from each 120° transducer sector, negligible coupling between sectors, and acoustic efficiencies between 41% and 53%. Experiments were performed within in vivo canine prostate (n=3), with real-time MR temperature monitoring in either the axial or coronal planes to facilitate control of the heating profiles and provide thermal dosimetry for performance assessment. Gross inspection of serial sections of treated prostate, exposed to TTC (triphenyl tetrazolium chloride) tissue viability stain, allowed for direct assessment of the extent of thermal coagulation. These devices created large contiguous thermal lesions (defined by 52 °C maximum temperature, t43=240 min thermal dose contours, and TTC tissue sections) that extended radially from the applicator toward the border of the prostate (∼15 mm) during a short power application (∼8−16 W per active sector, 8–15 min), with ∼200° or 360° sector coagulation demonstrated depending upon the activation scheme. Analysis of transient temperature profiles indicated progression of lethal temperature and thermal dose contours initially centered on each sector that coalesced within ∼5 min to produce uniform and contiguous zones of thermal destruction between sectors, with smooth outer boundaries and continued radial propagation in time. The dimension of the coagulation zone along the applicator was well-defined by positioning and active array length. Although not as precise as rotating planar and curvilinear devices currently under development for MR-guided procedures, advantages of these multi-sectored transurethral applicators include a flexible delivery catheter and that mechanical manipulation of the device using rotational motors is not required during therapy. This multi-sectored tubular array transurethral ultrasound technology has demonstrated potential for relatively fast and reasonably conformal targeting of prostate volumes suitable for the minimally invasive treatment of BPH and cancer under MR guidance, with further development warranted. PMID:18561684

Buffalo complete streets.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

Buffalo, NY formally adopted a local Complete Streets ordinance in 2008; however, implementation has yet : to become institutionalized. Buffalos Complete Streets Coalition, a multi-sector partnership was convened : to implement a Summit and Neighb...

Context matters: How macroeconomic forces may alter the reception of negative emotions in art.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal Ersner; Alter, Adam Lee

2017-01-01

Menninghaus et al. offer a comprehensive model to explain why people pursue darker emotions in art, but we believe they underplay the considerable role of situational factors in driving these preferences. In particular, changing mood states are likely to shape artistic preferences, in large part because positive mood states act as a protective buffer against otherwise aversive experiences.

Partnerships in obesity prevention: maximising co-benefits.

PubMed

Jones, Michelle; Verity, Fiona

2017-03-01

Issue addressed Partnerships were used to increase healthy eating and active living in children for the Obesity Prevention and Lifestyle (OPAL) program, a systems-wide, community-based childhood obesity prevention program in South Australia. This part of the multi-component evaluation examines stakeholders' perceptions of how OPAL staff worked in partnership and factors contributing to strong partnerships. Methods Pre- and post-interviews and focus groups with multi-sector stakeholders (n=131) across six OPAL communities were analysed using NVivo8 qualitative data analysis software. Results Stakeholders reflected positively on projects developed in partnership with OPAL, reporting that staff worked to establish co-benefits. They identified several factors that contributed to the strengthening of partnerships: staff skills, visibility, resources and sustainability. Conclusions Rather than implementing projects with stakeholders with shared organisational goals, local shared projects were implemented that included a breadth of co-benefits, allowing multi-sector stakeholders to meet their own organisational goals. Practitioners who have the capacity to be flexible, persistent, knowledgeable and skilled communicators are required to negotiate projects, achieving benefit for both health and stakeholders' organisational goals. So what? Engaging in partnership practice to broker co-benefits at the micro or program level has been an effective model for community engagement and change in OPAL. It foregrounds the need for the inclusion of value to partners, which differs from situations in which organisations come together around common goals.

Search Results Help - Industrial Stormwater | ECHO | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Help page for Industrial Stormwater program facility search, which provides data about Clean Water Act discharge permits with an industrial stormwater component, including EPA Industrial Stormwater Multi-Sector General Permits.

Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, María; Mañez, María

2016-04-01

Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we have to recognise that there is no "one-size-fit-all" solution and that Multi-Sector Partnerships are shape by the hazard they face and also by the social, political and historical background of the area where they are.

Optimal control and optimal trajectories of regional macroeconomic dynamics based on the Pontryagin maximum principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulgakov, V. K.; Strigunov, V. V.

2009-05-01

The Pontryagin maximum principle is used to prove a theorem concerning optimal control in regional macroeconomics. A boundary value problem for optimal trajectories of the state and adjoint variables is formulated, and optimal curves are analyzed. An algorithm is proposed for solving the boundary value problem of optimal control. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated by computing an optimal control and the corresponding optimal trajectories.

A macro-economic framework for evaluation of cyber security risks related to protection of intellectual property.

PubMed

Andrijcic, Eva; Horowitz, Barry

2006-08-01

The article is based on the premise that, from a macro-economic viewpoint, cyber attacks with long-lasting effects are the most economically significant, and as a result require more attention than attacks with short-lasting effects that have historically been more represented in literature. In particular, the article deals with evaluation of cyber security risks related to one type of attack with long-lasting effects, namely, theft of intellectual property (IP) by foreign perpetrators. An International Consequence Analysis Framework is presented to determine (1) the potential macro-economic consequences of cyber attacks that result in stolen IP from companies in the United States, and (2) the likely sources of such attacks. The framework presented focuses on IP theft that enables foreign companies to make economic gains that would have otherwise benefited the U.S. economy. Initial results are presented.

Pessimistic Determination of Mechanical Conditions and Micro/macroeconomic Evaluation of Mine Pillar Replacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qingfa; Zhao, Fuyu

2017-12-01

Numerous pillars are left after mining of underground mineral resources using the open stope method or after the first step of the partial filling method. The mineral recovery rate can, however, be improved by replacement recovery of pillars. In the present study, the relationships among the pillar type, minimum pillar width, and micro/macroeconomic factors were investigated from two perspectives, namely mechanical stability and micro/macroeconomic benefit. Based on the mechanical stability formulas for ore and artificial pillars, the minimum width for a specific pillar type was determined using a pessimistic criterion. The microeconomic benefit c of setting an ore pillar, the microeconomic benefit w of artificial pillar replacement, and the economic net present value (ENPV) of the replacement process were calculated. The values of c and w were compared with respect to ENPV, based on which the appropriate pillar type and economical benefit were determined.

Diversification of the rare-earth business in the existing enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Grishaev, S. I.; Yazev, V. A.

2013-12-01

The development of the modern rare-earth business is analyzed, and the possibilities of using a mathematical description of the prospects of this business on the basis of nonlinear evolution equations are estimated. The well-known methods of describing the life cycle of the economic activity of a commercial company in the closed multisector model of market economics is used to determine the boundaries of changing the average labor productivity during the diversification of business on operating Russian enterprises that produce a wide range of products and are intended to manufacture new types of high-technology rare-earth metal products.

Modeling the world in a spreadsheet: Environmental simulation on a microcomputer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cartwright, T.J.

1993-12-31

This article focuses on the following: Modeling Natural Systems Blowing Smoke; Atmospheric Dispersion of Air Pollution Running Water; The Underground Transport of Pollutants Preserving the Species; Determining Minimum Viable Population Sustainable Yield; Managing the Forest for the Trees Here Comes the Sun; Solar Energy from a Flat-Plate Collector Modeling Social Systems Macroeconomic Policy; Econometrics and the Klein Model Urban Form; The Lowry Model of Population Distribution Affordable Housing; The Bertaud/World Bank Model Traffic on the Roads; Modeling Trip Generation and Trip Distribution Throwing Things Away; A Model for Waste Management Apples and Oranges; and An Environmental Impact Assessment Model Modelingmore » Artificial Systems Life in a Spreadsheet.« less

Analytical pricing formulas for hybrid variance swaps with regime-switching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roslan, Teh Raihana Nazirah; Cao, Jiling; Zhang, Wenjun

2017-11-01

The problem of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps under stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rate and regime-switching is being considered in this paper. An extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model structure is done by adding the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic interest rate model. In addition, the parameters of the model are permitted to have transitions following a Markov chain process which is continuous and discoverable. This hybrid model can be used to illustrate certain macroeconomic conditions, for example the changing phases of business stages. The outcome of our regime-switching hybrid model is presented in terms of analytical pricing formulas for variance swaps.

Using a Multisectoral Approach to Assess HIV/AIDS Services in the Western Region of Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Asencio Toro, Gloria; Burns, Patricia; Pimentel, Daniel; Sánchez Peraza, Luis Raúl; Rivera Lugo, Carmen

2006-01-01

The Enhancing Care Initiative of Puerto Rico assessed services available to people living with HIV/AIDS in the western region of Puerto Rico. Participants were 212 people living with HIV/AIDS and 116 employees from 6 agencies providing HIV/AIDS services in the region. Two main findings were that depression symptoms were present in 98.1% of people living with HIV/AIDS, and 7 of the 15 municipalities in the region did not provide any specific services to this population. Most urgent needs identified by people living with HIV/AIDS were economic support, housing, mental and psychological services, medicines, medical treatment, and transportation. The Enhancing Care Initiative provides an example of a successful multisectoral, multidimensional volunteer team effectively overcoming challenges while translating research into interventions to enhance HIV/AIDS care. PMID:16670220

National nursing strategies in seven countries of the Region of the Americas: issues and impact.

PubMed

Shasanmi, Rebecca O; Kim, Esther M; Cassiani, Silvia Helena De Bortoli

2015-07-01

To identify and examine the current national nursing strategies and policy impact of workforce development regarding human resources for health in seven selected countries in the Region of the Americas: Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, and the United States. A review of available literature was conducted to identify publicly-available documents that describe the general backdrop of nursing human resources in these seven countries. A keyword search of PubMed was supplemented by searches of websites maintained by Ministries of Health and nursing organizations. Inclusion criteria limited documents to those published in 2008-2013 that discussed or assessed situational issues and/or progress surrounding the nursing workforce. Nursing human resources for health is progressing. Canada, Mexico, and the United States have stronger nursing leadership in place and multisectoral policies in workforce development. Jamaica shows efforts among the Caribbean countries to promote collaborative practices in research. The three selected countries in Central and South America championed networks to revive nursing education. Yet, overall challenges limit the opportunities to impact public health. The national nursing strategies prioritized multisectoral collaboration, professional competencies, and standardized educational systems, with some countries underscoring the need to align policies with efforts to promote nursing leadership, and others, focusing on expanding the scope of practice to improve health care delivery. While each country wrestles with its specific context, all require proper leadership, multisectoral collaboration, and appropriate resources to educate, train, and empower nurses to be at the forefront.

Prioritization of zoonotic diseases of public health significance in Vietnam.

PubMed

Trang, Do Thuy; Siembieda, Jennifer; Huong, Nguyen Thi; Hung, Pham; Ky, Van Dang; Bandyopahyay, Santanu; Olowokure, Babatunde

2015-12-30

Prioritization of zoonotic diseases is critical as it facilitates optimization of resources, greater understanding of zoonotic diseases and implementation of policies promoting multisectoral collaboration. This study aimed to establish strategic priorities for zoonotic diseases in Vietnam taking a key stakeholder approach. Two weeks prior to a workshop on zoonotic diseases a questionnaire was developed and posted to key professionals involved in different areas of zoonotic disease management in Vietnam. Respondents were asked to assess the relative priority of 12 zoonotic diseases using a number of evidence-based criteria, and to provide suggestions to strengthen multisectoral collaboration. A response rate of 69% (51/74) was obtained, and 75% (38/51) respondents worked in non-international Vietnamese organizations. Respondents identified the top five diseases for prioritization in Vietnam as: avian influenza, rabies, Streptococcus suis infection, pandemic influenza and foodborne bacterial diseases. The three criteria most used to rank diseases were severity of disease, outbreak potential and public attention. Avian influenza was ranked as the number one priority zoonotic disease in Vietnam by 57% of the respondents, followed by rabies (18%). Respondents identified coordination mechanisms, information sharing and capacity building as the most important areas for strengthening to enhance multisectoral collaboration. This study is the first systematic and broad-based attempt to prioritize zoonotic diseases of public health significance in Vietnam using key stakeholders, and a comparative and transparent method. There is limited literature for policy makers and planners on this topic and the results of this study can be used to guide decision-making.

Impacts of Modeled Provisions of H.R. 6 EH: The Energy Policy Act of 2005

EIA Publications

2005-01-01

This report responds to a May 2, 2005, request by Chairman Pete Domenici and Ranking Member Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for an assessment of the energy supply, consumption, import, price, and macroeconomic impacts of H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on April 21, 2005.

Examining Social and Economic Impacts of Educational Investment and Participation in Developing Countries: The Educational Impacts Model (EIM) Approach. BRIDGES Research Report Series No. 12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crouch, Luis A.; And Others

From 1960 to 1980, school enrollment and educational expenditures in developing countries experienced significant expansion. By the late 1980s, however, this trend had slowed. This report examines the impact of education upon welfare and productivity. A unified global data set is used to address the question from a macroeconomic, gender-specific,…

Agent Based Modeling and Simulation Framework for Supply Chain Risk Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

Christopher and Peck 2004) macroeconomic , policy, competition, and resource (Ghoshal 1987) value chain, operational, event, and recurring (Shi 2004...clustering algorithms in agent logic to protect company privacy ( da Silva et al. 2006), aggregation of domain context in agent data analysis logic (Xiang...Operational Availability ( OA ) for FMC and PMC. 75 Mission Capable (MICAP) Hours is the measure of total time (in a month) consumable or reparable

Recalibrating intellectual property rights to enhance translational research collaborations.

PubMed

Bubela, Tania; FitzGerald, Garret A; Gold, E Richard

2012-02-22

Multisectoral collaborative models for drug and therapeutic research and development (R&D) are emerging, requiring a recalibration of how intellectual property rights (IPRs) are used. Although these models appear promising, little study has been conducted on the optimal blend of sharing and exclusion as mediated through the proactive use or nonuse of IPRs. This Commentary is a call for a combination of theoretical and empirical analyses to build a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between formal IP laws, institutions that administer and manage IPRs, and the use of IPRs in practice to better construct and manage collaborations. Such analyses require outcome metrics formulated to measure the success of therapeutic outcomes and to capture the complexity of a highly networked R&D environment.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Health spending, macroeconomics and fiscal space in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Gupta, Indrani; Mondal, Swadhin

2014-01-01

The paper examines the issues around mobilization of resources for the 11 countries of the South-East Asia Region of the World Health Organization (WHO), by analysing their macroeconomic situation, health spending, fiscal space and other determinants of health. With the exception of a few, most of these countries have made fair progress on their own Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets of maternal mortality ratio and mortality rate in children aged under 5 years. However, the achieved targets have been very modest - with the exception of Thailand and Sri Lanka - indicating the continued need for additional efforts to improve these indicators. The paper discusses the need for investment, by looking at evidence on economic growth, the availability of fiscal space, and improvements in "macroeconomic-plus" factors like poverty, female literacy, governance and efficiency of the health sector. The analysis indicates that, overall, the countries of the WHO South-East Asia Region are collectively in a position to make the transition from low public spending to moderate or even high health spending, which is required, in turn, for transition from lowcoverage-high out-of-pocket spending (OOPS) to highcoverage-low OOPS. However, explicit prioritization for health within the overall government budget for low spenders would require political will and champions who can argue the case of the health sector. Additional innovative avenues of raising resources, such as earmarked taxes or a health levy can be considered in countries with good macroeconomic fundamentals. With the exception of Thailand, this is applicable for all the countries of the region. However, countries with adverse macroeconomic-plus factors, as well as inefficient health systems, need to be alert to the possibility of overinvesting - and thereby wasting - resources for modest health gains, making the challenge of increasing health sector spending alongside competing demands for spending on other areas of the social sector difficult.

Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

PubMed

Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

2015-01-01

Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related to rising levels of diabetes between 1990 and 2008.

Comprehensive sector-wide strategies to prevent and control obesity: what are the potential health and broader societal benefits? A case study from Australia.

PubMed

Kite, James; Hector, Debra J; St George, Alexis; Pedisic, Zeljko; Phongsavan, Philayrath; Bauman, Adrian; Mitchell, Jo; Bellew, Bill

2015-09-30

Several countries have recently established multistakeholder strategies to prevent or control overweight and obesity; however, studies have not yet been done on their effectiveness and likely impact. This study's objectives were to (i) explore sector-wide benefits and impacts likely to accrue from implementing an obesity prevention strategy in the Australian state of New South Wales; (ii) discuss the wider implications of the findings for research and practice; and (iii) strengthen the case for sustained implementation of a comprehensive, intersectoral approach. A case study approach, including evidence reviews and illustrative epidemiological models, was used to show potential benefits from meeting selected targets and objectives specified in the strategy. For adults, improved health outcomes potentially include reductions in all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, various cancers, osteoarthritis, infant mortality and healthcare costs. Potential benefits beyond the health sector involve disability payments, absenteeism, worker productivity, workplace injuries and insurance claims. For children and adolescents, improved health outcomes potentially include metabolic risk factors, dental health, prehypertension/hypertension, cardiovascular disease risk factors, depression, rates of mortality in hospitalised children, bullying and otitis media. Sector-wide health, social and economic benefits from successful implementation of multisector obesity prevention strategies are likely to be substantial if specified targets are achieved. Epidemiological modelling described in this paper for selected examples provides illustrative rather than comprehensive evidence for potential benefits. Process evaluation of the extent of implementation of these multisectoral strategies, together with the accumulated data on intervention effectiveness, will determine their potential population health benefit. Quantifying the health and social benefits that are likely to accrue if comprehensive sector-wide obesity prevention and control strategies are established can strengthen advocacy for their sustained implementation.

Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

2014-05-01

This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

The Determinants of Career Decisions of Air Force Pilots.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

Hypothesis tests comparing these two models will be presented in Chapter VI. Page 114 Prob[J]=fProb(k 1 >X1B, ... kj_ 1 >Xj_1 B, kj <XjB] h(a) da 4.6 * Prob[S...Prob[k >X B, kp > X B] h(a) da 4.5a where h(a) is the marginal density of a . Substituting Equation 4.3, which gave the probability of leaving in...be zero. The model derived in this thesis for the individual decision to separate was based upor individual characteristics and macroeconomic 4

Detecting macroeconomic phases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Jian Cheng; Lian, Heng; Cheong, Siew Ann

2009-11-01

In this paper, we perform statistical segmentation and clustering analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) time series between January 1997 and August 2008. Modeling the index movements and log-index movements as stationary Gaussian processes, we find a total of 116 and 119 statistically stationary segments respectively. These can then be grouped into between five and seven clusters, each representing a different macroeconomic phase. The macroeconomic phases are distinguished primarily by their volatilities. We find that the US economy, as measured by the DJI, spends most of its time in a low-volatility phase and a high-volatility phase. The former can be roughly associated with economic expansion, while the latter contains the economic contraction phase in the standard economic cycle. Both phases are interrupted by a moderate-volatility market correction phase, but extremely-high-volatility market crashes are found mostly within the high-volatility phase. From the temporal distribution of various phases, we see a high-volatility phase from mid-1998 to mid-2003, and another starting mid-2007 (the current global financial crisis). Transitions from the low-volatility phase to the high-volatility phase are preceded by a series of precursor shocks, whereas the transition from the high-volatility phase to the low-volatility phase is preceded by a series of inverted shocks. The time scale for both types of transitions is about a year. We also identify the July 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to be the trigger for the mid-1998 transition, and an unnamed May 2006 market event related to corrections in the Chinese markets to be the trigger for the mid-2007 transition.

Organization and Finance of China's Health Sector: Historical Antecedents for Macroeconomic Structural Adjustment.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Hilsenrath, Peter

2016-01-01

China has exploded onto the world economy over the past few decades and is undergoing rapid transformation toward relatively more services. The health sector is an important part of this transition. This article provides a historical account of the development of health care in China since 1949. It also focuses on health insurance and macroeconomic structural adjustment to less saving and more consumption. In particular, the question of how health insurance impacts precautionary savings is considered. Multivariate analysis using data from 1990 to 2012 is employed. The household savings rate is the dependent variable in 3 models segmented for rural and urban populations. Independent variables include out-of-pocket health expenditures, health insurance payouts, housing expenditure, education expenditure, and consumption as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). Out-of-pocket health expenditures were positively correlated with household savings rates. But health insurance remains weak, and increased payouts by health insurers have not been associated with lower levels of household savings so far. Housing was positively correlated, whereas education had a negative association with savings rates. This latter finding was unexpected. Perhaps education is perceived as investment and a substitute for savings. China's shift toward a more service-oriented economy includes growing dependence on the health sector. Better health insurance is an important part of this evolution. The organization and finance of health care is integrally linked with macroeconomic policy in an environment constrained by prevailing institutional convention. Problems of agency relationships, professional hegemony, and special interest politics feature prominently, as they do elsewhere. China also has a dual approach to medicine relying heavily on providers of traditional Chinese medicine. Both of these segments will take part in China's evolution, adding another layer of complexity to policy. © The Author(s) 2016.

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

2012-11-01

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

PubMed

Yaxley, I L

1998-03-01

Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

Macroeconomics in an open economy.

PubMed

Cooper, R N

1986-09-12

The customary treatment of national economies as closed and self-contained must be substantially modified to allow for those economies that typically trade goods, services, and securities with other countries in increasing volume. Open economy macroeconomics is essential to understanding the major events of the U.S. economy over the past half dozen years. Both the sharp rise in the dollar and the unprecedentedly large U.S. trade deficit are linked to the U.S. budget deficit, as is the drop in the rate of inflation.

Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-22

Mankiw , Principles of Economics (Ft. Worth, Dryden Press, 1998), p556, and Robert J. Barro, “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?” Journal of Political... Macroeconomic Performance, by Craig K. Elwell. 2 Real GDP is the output of goods and services produced in the United States. 3 Data on GDP is available from... macroeconomic theory, but without the counterfactual of the economy’s path in the absence of these policies, it is difficult to establish with precision how

Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Raymond J.

2017-03-01

We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.

New U.N. program promotes multisectoral approach to AIDS prevention. Q and A [with Peter Piot].

PubMed

1996-05-01

The new joint United Nations (UN) Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) coordinates the HIV/AIDS activities of its six co-sponsors: the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), the UN Development Program (UNDP), the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the World Bank. In this interview, UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot discusses the program's goals and challenges. The UNAIDS program will be more multisectoral in scope than other efforts, involving all sectors of society that can affect the course of the epidemic or are affected by it. This includes the health and education sectors; ministries of trade, finance, planning, and development; nongovernmental and community organizations; people living with HIV and AIDS; research institutions; and the business sector. In each country, the UN agencies will form a "Theme Group on HIV/AIDS" to formulate intersectoral strategies.

Development of the Community Health Improvement Navigator Database of Interventions.

PubMed

Roy, Brita; Stanojevich, Joel; Stange, Paul; Jiwani, Nafisa; King, Raymond; Koo, Denise

2016-02-26

With the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the requirements for hospitals to achieve tax-exempt status include performing a triennial community health needs assessment and developing a plan to address identified needs. To address community health needs, multisector collaborative efforts to improve both health care and non-health care determinants of health outcomes have been the most effective and sustainable. In 2015, CDC released the Community Health Improvement Navigator to facilitate the development of these efforts. This report describes the development of the database of interventions included in the Community Health Improvement Navigator. The database of interventions allows the user to easily search for multisector, collaborative, evidence-based interventions to address the underlying causes of the greatest morbidity and mortality in the United States: tobacco use and exposure, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity.

Spatiotemporal genomic architecture informs precision oncology in glioblastoma

PubMed Central

Lee, Jin-Ku; Wang, Jiguang; Sa, Jason K.; Ladewig, Erik; Lee, Hae-Ock; Lee, In-Hee; Kang, Hyun Ju; Rosenbloom, Daniel S.; Camara, Pablo G.; Liu, Zhaoqi; van Nieuwenhuizen, Patrick; Jung, Sang Won; Choi, Seung Won; Kim, Junhyung; Chen, Andrew; Kim, Kyu-Tae; Shin, Sang; Seo, Yun Jee; Oh, Jin-Mi; Shin, Yong Jae; Park, Chul-Kee; Kong, Doo-Sik; Seol, Ho Jun; Blumberg, Andrew; Lee, Jung-Il; Iavarone, Antonio; Park, Woong-Yang; Rabadan, Raul; Nam, Do-Hyun

2017-01-01

Precision medicine in cancer proposes that genomic characterization of tumors can inform personalized targeted therapies1–5. This proposition, however, is complicated by spatial and temporal heterogeneity6–14. Here we study genomic and expression profiles across 127 multi-sector or longitudinal specimens from 52 glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Using bulk and single-cell data, we find that samples from the same tumor mass share genomic and expression signatures, while geographically separated multifocal tumors and/or long-term recurrent tumors are seeded from different clones. Chemical screening of patient-derived glioma cells (PDCs) shows that therapeutic response is associated to genetic similarity, and multifocal tumors enriched with PIK3CA mutations have a heterogeneous drug response pattern. Importantly, we show that targeting truncal events is more efficacious in reducing tumor burden. In summary, this work demonstrates that evolutionary inference from integrated genomic analysis in multi-sector biopsies can inform targeted therapeutic interventions for GBM patients. PMID:28263318

Development of the Community Health Improvement Navigator Database of Interventions

PubMed Central

Roy, Brita; Stanojevich, Joel; Stange, Paul; Jiwani, Nafisa; King, Raymond; Koo, Denise

2016-01-01

Summary With the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the requirements for hospitals to achieve tax-exempt status include performing a triennial community health needs assessment and developing a plan to address identified needs. To address community health needs, multisector collaborative efforts to improve both health care and non–health care determinants of health outcomes have been the most effective and sustainable. In 2015, CDC released the Community Health Improvement Navigator to facilitate the development of these efforts. This report describes the development of the database of interventions included in the Community Health Improvement Navigator. The database of interventions allows the user to easily search for multisector, collaborative, evidence-based interventions to address the underlying causes of the greatest morbidity and mortality in the United States: tobacco use and exposure, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity. PMID:26917110

Assessing organizational change in multisector community health alliances.

PubMed

Alexander, Jeffrey A; Hearld, Larry R; Shi, Yunfeng

2015-02-01

The purpose of this article was to identify some common organizational features of multisector health care alliances (MHCAs) and the analytic challenges presented by those characteristics in assessing organizational change. Two rounds of an Internet-based survey of participants in 14 MHCAs. We highlight three analytic challenges that can arise when quantitatively studying the organizational characteristics of MHCAs-assessing change in MHCA organization, assessment of construct reliability, and aggregation of individual responses to reflect organizational characteristics. We illustrate these issues using a leadership effectiveness scale (12 items) validated in previous research and data from 14 MHCAs participating in the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Aligning Forces for Quality (AF4Q) program. High levels of instability and turnover in MHCA membership create challenges in using survey data to study changes in key organizational characteristics of MHCAs. We offer several recommendations to diagnose the source and extent of these problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Single European currency and Monetary Union. Macroeconomic implications for pharmaceutical spending.

PubMed

Kanavos, P

1998-01-01

This article examines the potential implications of introducing a single currency among the Member States of the European Union for national pharmaceutical prices and spending. In doing so, it provides a brief account of the direct effects of introducing a single currency on pharmaceutical business. These are static in nature and include the elimination of exchange rate volatility and transaction costs, increased price transparency and limited potential for parallel trade. It subsequently analyses the potential medium and long term macroeconomic policy choices facing the Member States and their impact on pharmaceutical spending following the introduction of a single currency. These include policy directions in order to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria in the run-up to forming an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the implications of EMU on national macroeconomic policy thereafter. This article argues that the necessity for tight fiscal policies across the EU and, in particular, in those Member States facing high budget deficits and overall debt levels, will continue to exert considerable downward pressure on pharmaceutical spending.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and problem drinking as captured by Google searches in the U.S.

PubMed

Frijters, Paul; Johnston, David W; Lordan, Grace; Shields, Michael A

2013-05-01

There is considerable policy interest in the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health-related behaviours and outcomes. This paper sheds new light on this issue by exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and an indicator of problem drinking derived from state-level data on alcoholism-related Google searches conducted in the US over the period 2004-2011. We find the current recessionary period coincided with an almost 20% increase in alcoholism-related searches. Controlling for state and time-effects, a 5% rise in unemployment is followed in the next 12 months by an approximate 15% increase in searches. The use of Internet searches to inform on health-related behaviours and outcomes is in its infancy; but we suggest that the data provides important real-time information for policy-makers and can help to overcome the under-reporting in surveys of sensitive information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macroeconomic conditions and health: Inspecting the transmission mechanism.

PubMed

Colombo, Emilio; Rotondi, Valentina; Stanca, Luca

2018-02-01

We study the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and self-reported health in a large sample of Italian individuals, focusing on the mediating role played by health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, eating habits) and economic stress. Our findings indicate that, overall, higher local unemployment is negatively related to individuals' health conditions. A one percentage point increase in the province-level unemployment rate is associated with a significant increase in the probability of experiencing diabetes (0.03 percentage points), infarction (0.01), ulcer (0.06), cirrhosis (0.01) and nervous disorders (0.07), with a time lag that differs across individual health conditions. Employment status and educational level play a significant role as moderators of these relationships. Eating habits, in addition to economic stress, play a key role as mediators, by enhancing the negative relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health outcomes, while physical exercise is found to play a dampening role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated Earth System Model (iESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter Edmond; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying

2016-12-02

The iESM is a simulation code that represents the physical and biological aspects of Earth's climate system, and also includes the macro-economic and demographic properties of human societies. The human aspect of the simulation code is focused in particular on the effects of human activities on land use and land cover change, but also includes aspects such as energy economies. The time frame for predictions with iESM is approximately 1970 through 2100.

A Model for the Evaluation of Offsets in International Arms Transfers.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

8tefan a. Robock and Kenneth Sizmonds, International Business and Multinational Entergrises (Wamewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1973)., pp. 70-73...individual voter is socialized into his political attitudes, not, as Sir Ivor Jennings suggested, on casting his first vote, nor at the moment of birth...N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1974. Branson , William H. Macroeconomic Theory and Policy. New York: Harper and Row Publishers, 1972. Carlton, David and Carlo

The adverse effects of International Monetary Fund programs on the health and education workforce.

PubMed

Marphatia, Akanksha A

2010-01-01

Decades of underinvestment in public sectors and in teachers and health workers have adversely affected the health and educational outcomes of women. This is partly explained by a general lack of resources. However, the amount a country can spend on social sectors, including teachers and health workers, is also determined by its macroeconomic framework, which is set in agreement with the International Monetary Fund. There is now ample evidence of how IMF-imposed wage ceilings have constrained the ability of governments to hire adequate numbers of trained professionals and increase investment in social sectors. Though the IMF has recently removed wage ceilings from its basket of conditions, little change has taken place to ensure that women are better supported by macroeconomic policies or, at the least, are less adversely affected. Thus far, the IMF's neoliberal policies have either ignored gender concerns or instrumentalized equity, health, and education to support economic development. Unless macroeconomic policies are more flexible and deliberately take into account the different needs of women and men, social outcomes will continue to be poor and inequitable. Governments must pursue alternative, feminist policies that put the goals of social equity at the center of macroeconomic policy. These policies can facilitate increased investment in education and health care, which are vital measures for achieving gender equality and providing both women and men with the skills and training needed to soften the impact of the current economic crisis.

The effect of macroeconomic variables on suicide.

PubMed

Berk, Michael; Dodd, Seetal; Henry, Margaret

2006-02-01

There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. A total of 51845 males and 16327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers' perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

Network analysis of Bogotá’s Ciclovía Recreativa, a self-organized multisectoral community program to promote physical activity in a middle-income country

PubMed Central

Meisel, Jose D; Sarmiento, Olga; Montes, Felipe; Martinez, Edwin O.; Lemoine, Pablo D; Valdivia, Juan A; Brownson, RC; Zarama, Robert

2016-01-01

Purpose Conduct a social network analysis of the health and non-health related organizations that participate in the Bogotá’s Ciclovía Recreativa (Ciclovía). Design Cross sectional study. Setting Ciclovía is a multisectoral community-based mass program in which streets are temporarily closed to motorized transport, allowing exclusive access to individuals for leisure activities and PA. Subjects 25 organizations that participate in the Ciclovía. Measures Seven variables were examined using network analytic methods: relationship, link attributes (integration, contact, and importance), and node attributes (leadership, years in the program, and the sector of the organization). Analysis The network analytic methods were based on a visual descriptive analysis and an exponential random graph model. Results Analysis shows that the most central organizations in the network were outside of the health sector and includes Sports and Recreation, Government, and Security sectors. The organizations work in clusters formed by organizations of different sectors. Organization importance and structural predictors were positively related to integration, while the number of years working with Ciclovía was negatively associated with integration. Conclusion Ciclovía is a network whose structure emerged as a self-organized complex system. Ciclovía of Bogotá is an example of a program with public health potential formed by organizations of multiple sectors with Sports and Recreation as the most central. PMID:23971523

Impact of multisectoral health determinants on child mortality 1980-2010: An analysis by country baseline mortality.

PubMed

Cohen, Robert L; Murray, John; Jack, Susan; Arscott-Mills, Sharon; Verardi, Vincenzo

2017-01-01

Some health determinants require relatively stronger health system capacity and socioeconomic development than others to impact child mortality. Few quantitative analyses have analyzed how the impact of health determinants varies by mortality level. 149 low- and middle-income countries were stratified into high, moderate, low, and very low baseline levels of child mortality in 1990. Data for 52 health determinants were collected for these countries for 1980-2010. To quantify how changes in health determinants were associated with mortality decline, univariable and multivariable regression models were constructed. An advanced statistical technique that is new for child mortality analyses-MM-estimation with first differences and country clustering-controlled for outliers, fixed effects, and variation across decades. Some health determinants (immunizations, education) were consistently associated with child mortality reduction across all mortality levels. Others (staff availability, skilled birth attendance, fertility, water and sanitation) were associated with child mortality reduction mainly in low or very low mortality settings. The findings indicate that the impact of some health determinants on child mortality was only apparent with stronger health systems, public infrastructure and levels of socioeconomic development, whereas the impact of other determinants was apparent at all stages of development. Multisectoral progress was essential to mortality reduction at all baseline mortality levels. Policy-makers can use such analyses to direct investments in health and non-health sectors and to set five-year child mortality targets appropriate for their baseline mortality levels and local context.

Evaluating community-based public health leadership training.

PubMed

Ceraso, Marion; Gruebling, Kirsten; Layde, Peter; Remington, Patrick; Hill, Barbara; Morzinski, Jeffrey; Ore, Peggy

2011-01-01

Addressing the nation's increasingly complex public health challenges will require more effective multisector collaboration and stronger public health leadership. In 2005, the Healthy Wisconsin Leadership Institute launched an annual, year-long intensive "community teams" program. The goal of this program is to develop collaborative leadership and public health skills among Wisconsin-based multisectoral teams mobilizing their communities to improve public health. To measure the scope of participation and program impacts on individual learning and practice, including application of new knowledge and collective achievements of teams on coalition and short-term community outcomes. End-of-year participant program evaluations and follow-up telephone interviews with participants 20 months after program completion. Community-based public health leadership training program. Sixty-eight participants in the Community Teams Program during the years 2006 to 2007 and 2007 to 2008. Professional diversity of program participants; individual learning and practice, including application of new knowledge; and collective achievements of teams, including coalition and short-term community outcomes. Participants in the Community Teams Program represent a diversity of sectors, including nonprofit, governmental, academic, business, and local public health. Participation increased knowledge across all public health and leadership competency areas covered in the program. Participating teams reported outcomes, including increased engagement of community leadership, expansion of preventive services, increased media coverage, strengthened community coalitions, and increased grant funding. Evaluation of this community-based approach to public health leadership training has shown it to be a promising model for building collaborative and public health leadership skills and initiating sustained community change for health improvement.

Toward Multi-Model Frameworks Addressing Multi-Sector Dynamics, Risks, and Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Barrett, C.; Kraucunas, I.; Rice, J.; Sue Wing, I.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Reed, P. M.

2016-12-01

This presentation will report on the findings of recent modeling studies and a series of workshops and other efforts convened under the auspices of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to improve integration of critical infrastructure, natural resources, integrated assessment, and human systems modeling. The focus is issues related to drought and increased variability of water supply at the energy-water-land nexus. One motivation for the effort is the potential for impact cascades across coupled built, natural, and socioeconomic systems stressed by social and environmental change. The design is for an adaptable modeling framework that will includes a repository of independently-developed modeling tools of varying complexity - from coarser grid, longer time-horizon to higher-resolution shorter-term models of socioeconomic systems, infrastructure, and natural resources. The models draw from three interlocking research communities: Earth system, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment. A key lesson will be explored, namely the importance of defining a clear use perspective to limit dimensionality, focus modeling, and facilitate uncertainty characterization and communication.

Alberta's provincial take-home naloxone program: A multi-sectoral and multi-jurisdictional response to overdose.

PubMed

Freeman, Lisa K; Bourque, Stacey; Etches, Nick; Goodison, Karin; O'Gorman, Claire; Rittenbach, Kay; Sikora, Christopher A; Yarema, Mark

2017-11-09

Alberta is a prairie province located in western Canada, with a population of approximately 4.3 million. In 2016, 363 Albertans died from apparent drug overdoses related to fentanyl, an opioid 50-100 times more toxic than morphine. This surpassed the number of deaths from motor vehicle collisions and homicides combined. Naloxone is a safe, effective, opioid antagonist that may quickly reverse an opioid overdose. In July 2015, a committee of community-based harm reduction programs in Alberta implemented a geographically restricted take-home naloxone (THN) program. The successes and limitations of this program demonstrated the need for an expanded, multi-sectoral, multi-jurisdictional response. The provincial health authority, Alberta Health Services (AHS), used previously established incident command system processes to coordinate implementation of a provincial THN program. Alberta's provincial THN program was implemented on December 23, 2015. This collaborative program resulted in a coordinated response across jurisdictional levels with wide geographical reach. Between December 2015 and December 2016, 953 locations, including many community pharmacies, registered to dispense THN kits, 9572 kits were distributed, and 472 reversals were reported. The provincial supply of THN kits more than tripled from 3000 to 10 000. Alberta was uniquely poised to deliver a large, province-wide, multi-sectoral and multi-jurisdictional THN program as part of a comprehensive response to increasing opioid-related morbidity and mortality. The speed at which AHS was able to roll out the program was made possible by work done previously and the willingness of multiple jurisdictions to work together to build on and expand the program.

Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

PubMed

Di Pietro, Giorgio

2018-02-01

This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of an integrated multisector model for achieving the Millennium Development Goals and improving child survival in rural sub-Saharan Africa: a non-randomised controlled assessment.

PubMed

Pronyk, Paul M; Muniz, Maria; Nemser, Ben; Somers, Marie-Andrée; McClellan, Lucy; Palm, Cheryl A; Huynh, Uyen Kim; Ben Amor, Yanis; Begashaw, Belay; McArthur, John W; Niang, Amadou; Sachs, Sonia Ehrlich; Singh, Prabhjot; Teklehaimanot, Awash; Sachs, Jeffrey D

2012-06-09

Simultaneously addressing multiple Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has the potential to complement essential health interventions to accelerate gains in child survival. The Millennium Villages project is an integrated multisector approach to rural development operating across diverse sub-Saharan African sites. Our aim was to assess the effects of the project on MDG-related outcomes including child mortality 3 years after implementation and compare these changes to local comparison data. Village sites averaging 35,000 people were selected from rural areas across diverse agroecological zones with high baseline levels of poverty and undernutrition. Starting in 2006, simultaneous investments were made in agriculture, the environment, business development, education, infrastructure, and health in partnership with communities and local governments at an annual projected cost of US$120 per person. We assessed MDG-related progress by monitoring changes 3 years after implementation across Millenium Village sites in nine countries. The primary outcome was the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years of age. To assess plausibility and attribution, we compared changes to reference data gathered from matched randomly selected comparison sites for the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years of age. Analyses were done on a per-protocol basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01125618. Baseline levels of MDG-related spending averaged $27 per head, increasing to $116 by year 3 of which $25 was spent on health. After 3 years, reductions in poverty, food insecurity, stunting, and malaria parasitaemia were reported across nine Millennium Village sites. Access to improved water and sanitation increased, along with coverage for many maternal-child health interventions. Mortality rates in children younger than 5 years of age decreased by 22% in Millennium Village sites relative to baseline (absolute decrease 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0·015) and 32% relative to matched comparison sites (30 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0·033). An integrated multisector approach for addressing the MDGs can produce rapid declines in child mortality in the first 3 years of a long-term effort in rural sub-Saharan Africa. UN Human Security Trust Fund, the Lenfest Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Becton Dickinson. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A qualitative study of governance of evolving response to non-communicable diseases in low-and middle- income countries: current status, risks and options.

PubMed

Rani, Manju; Nusrat, Sharmin; Hawken, Laura H

2012-10-16

Segmented service delivery with consequent inefficiencies in health systems was one of the main concerns raised during scaling up of disease-specific programs in the last two decades. The organized response to NCD is in infancy in most LMICs with little evidence on how the response is evolving in terms of institutional arrangements and policy development processes. Drawing on qualitative review of policy and program documents from five LMICs and data from global key-informant surveys conducted in 2004 and 2010, we examine current status of governance of response to NCDs at national level along three dimensions- institutional arrangements for stewardship and program management and implementation; policies/plans; and multisectoral coordination and partnerships. Several positive trends were noted in the organization and governance of response to NCDs: shift from specific NCD-based programs to integrated NCD programs, increasing inclusion of NCDs in sector-wide health plans, and establishment of high-level multisectoral coordination mechanisms.Several areas of concern were identified. The evolving NCD-specific institutional structures are being treated as 'program management and implementation' entities rather than as lead 'technical advisory' bodies, with unclear division of roles and responsibilities between NCD-specific and sector-wide structures. NCD-specific and sector-wide plans are poorly aligned and lack prioritization, costing, and appropriate targets. Finally, the effectiveness of existing multisectoral coordination mechanisms remains questionable. The 'technical functions' and 'implementation and management functions' should be clearly separated between NCD-specific units and sector-wide institutional structures to avoid duplicative segmented service delivery systems. Institutional capacity building efforts for NCDs should target both NCD-specific units (for building technical and analytical capacity) and sector-wide organizational units (for building program management and implementation capacity) in MOH.The sector-wide health plans should reflect NCDs in proportion to their public health importance. NCD specific plans should be developed in close consultation with sector-wide health- and non-health stakeholders. These plans should expand on the directions provided by sector-wide health plans specifying strategically prioritized, fully costed activities, and realistic quantifiable targets for NCD control linked with sector-wide expenditure framework. Multisectoral coordination mechanisms need to be strengthened with optimal decision-making powers and resource commitment and monitoring of their outputs.

A qualitative study of governance of evolving response to non-communicable diseases in low-and middle- income countries: current status, risks and options

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Segmented service delivery with consequent inefficiencies in health systems was one of the main concerns raised during scaling up of disease-specific programs in the last two decades. The organized response to NCD is in infancy in most LMICs with little evidence on how the response is evolving in terms of institutional arrangements and policy development processes. Methods Drawing on qualitative review of policy and program documents from five LMICs and data from global key-informant surveys conducted in 2004 and 2010, we examine current status of governance of response to NCDs at national level along three dimensions— institutional arrangements for stewardship and program management and implementation; policies/plans; and multisectoral coordination and partnerships. Results Several positive trends were noted in the organization and governance of response to NCDs: shift from specific NCD-based programs to integrated NCD programs, increasing inclusion of NCDs in sector-wide health plans, and establishment of high-level multisectoral coordination mechanisms. Several areas of concern were identified. The evolving NCD-specific institutional structures are being treated as ‘program management and implementation’ entities rather than as lead ‘technical advisory’ bodies, with unclear division of roles and responsibilities between NCD-specific and sector-wide structures. NCD-specific and sector-wide plans are poorly aligned and lack prioritization, costing, and appropriate targets. Finally, the effectiveness of existing multisectoral coordination mechanisms remains questionable. Conclusions The ‘technical functions’ and ‘implementation and management functions’ should be clearly separated between NCD-specific units and sector-wide institutional structures to avoid duplicative segmented service delivery systems. Institutional capacity building efforts for NCDs should target both NCD-specific units (for building technical and analytical capacity) and sector-wide organizational units (for building program management and implementation capacity) in MOH. The sector-wide health plans should reflect NCDs in proportion to their public health importance. NCD specific plans should be developed in close consultation with sector-wide health- and non-health stakeholders. These plans should expand on the directions provided by sector-wide health plans specifying strategically prioritized, fully costed activities, and realistic quantifiable targets for NCD control linked with sector-wide expenditure framework. Multisectoral coordination mechanisms need to be strengthened with optimal decision-making powers and resource commitment and monitoring of their outputs. PMID:23067232

Markov model of the loan portfolio dynamics considering influence of management and external economic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhalkina, Yana; Timofeeva, Galina

2016-12-01

Mathematical model of loan portfolio in the form of a controlled Markov chain with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that coefficients of migration matrix depend on corrective actions and external factors. Corrective actions include process of receiving applications, interaction with existing solvent and insolvent clients. External factors are macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and unemployment rates, exchange rates, consumer price indices, etc. Changes in corrective actions adjust the intensity of transitions in the migration matrix. The mathematical model for forecasting the credit portfolio structure taking into account a cumulative impact of internal and external changes is obtained.

The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment.

PubMed

Carlberg, M

1990-02-01

"What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER) excerpt

Environmental and economic comparisons of the satellite power system and six alternative energy technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, R. G.; Habegger, L. J.; Levine, E. P.; Tanzman, E.

1981-04-01

The satellite power system (SPS) was compared with alternative systems on life cycle cost and environmental impacts. Environmental and economic effects are evaluated and subdivided into the following issue areas: human health and safety, environmental welfare, resources (land, materials, energy, water, labor), macroeconomics, socioeconomics, and institutional. These evaluations are based on technology characterization data and alternative futures scenarios, developed as part of CDEP. The technologies and the scenarios are described. The cost and performance of the SPS and the alternative technologies provide the basis of the macroeconomic analyses.

Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sung Wook

This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

Macroeconomic Scenario Building for Strategic National Defense Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

can be disastrous. The rapid destruction of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in the fall of 1998 is a case in point. This fund traded...extensively in derivatives and arbitrage with use of heavy leverage. Their use of computer models developed by the crème of academia, including Nobel...historical norms of arbitrage trading and bond yields broke down. In five weeks the Long Term Capital’s portfolio imploded under the weight of its leverage

Markov Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWARCH) Model to Detect Financial Crisis in Indonesia Based on Import and Export Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Susanti, Yuliana; Rahma Dwi, Sisca

2017-06-01

A country is said to be a crisis when the financial system is experiencing a disruption that affects systems that can not function efficiently. The performance efficiency of macroeconomic indicators especially in imports and exports can be used to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Based on the import and export indicators from 1987 to 2015, the movement of these indicators can be modelled using SWARCH three states. The results showed that SWARCH (3,1) model was able to detect the crisis that occurred in Indonesia in 1997 and 2008. Using this model, it can be concluded that Indonesia is prone to financial crisis in 2016.

The Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB): Planning and Developing Sustainability Initiatives Affecting Land Use

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Sustainable and Healthy Communities (SHC) Research Program develops methodologies, resources, and tools to assist local and regional community planners, community members, and local decision makers in implementing sustainabl...

Volume of the steady-state space of financial flows in a monetary stock-flow-consistent model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazan, Aurélien

2017-05-01

We show that a steady-state stock-flow consistent macro-economic model can be represented as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP). The set of solutions is a polytope, which volume depends on the constraints applied and reveals the potential fragility of the economic circuit, with no need to study the dynamics. Several methods to compute the volume are compared, inspired by operations research methods and the analysis of metabolic networks, both exact and approximate. We also introduce a random transaction matrix, and study the particular case of linear flows with respect to money stocks.

Modeling of the interest rate policy of the central bank of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelomentsev, A. G.; Berg, D. B.; Detkov, A. A.; Rylova, A. P.

2017-11-01

This paper investigates interactions among money supply, exchange rates, inflation, and nominal interest rates, which are regulating parameters of the Central bank policy. The study is based on the data received from Russian source in 2002-2016. The major findings are 1) the interest rate demonstrates almost no relation with inflation; 2) ties of money supply and the nominal interest rate are strong; 3) money supply and inflation show meaningful relations only in comparison to their growth rates. We have developed a dynamic model, which can be used in forecasting of macroeconomic processes.

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

[Macroeconomic costs of eye diseases].

PubMed

Hirneiß, C; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

2014-05-01

Eye diseases that are relevant regarding their macroeconomic costs and their impact on society include cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of direct and indirect costs for major eye disease categories for Germany, based on existing literature and data sources. A semi-structured literature search was performed in the databases Medline and Embase and in the search machine Google for relevant original papers and reviews on costs of eye diseases with relevance for or transferability to Germany (last research date October 2013). In addition, manual searching was performed in important national databases and information sources, such as the Federal Office of Statistics and scientific societies. The direct costs for these diseases add up to approximately 2.6 billion Euros yearly for the Federal Republic of Germany, including out of the pocket payments from patients but excluding optical aids (e.g. glasses). In addition to those direct costs there are also indirect costs which are caused e.g. by loss of employment or productivity or by a reduction in health-related quality of life. These indirect costs can only be roughly estimated. Including the indirect costs for the eye diseases investigated, a total yearly macroeconomic cost ranging between 4 and 12 billion Euros is estimated for Germany. The costs for the eye diseases cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors have a macroeconomic relevant dimension. Based on the predicted demographic changes with an ageing society an increase of the prevalence and thus also an increase of costs for eye diseases is expected in the future.

Development assistance for health: should policy-makers worry about its macroeconomic impact?

PubMed

Cavagnero, Eleonora; Lane, Christopher; Evans, David B; Carrin, Guy

2008-11-01

Many low-income countries need to substantially increase expenditure to meet universal coverage goals for essential health services but, because they have very low-incomes, most will be unable to raise adequate funds exclusively from domestic sources in the short to medium term. Increased aid for health will be required. However, there has long been a concern that the rapid arrival of large amounts of foreign exchange in a country could lead to an increase in inflation and loss of international competitiveness, with an adverse impact on exports and economic growth, an economic phenomenon termed 'Dutch disease'. We review cross-country and country-level empirical studies and propose a simple framework to gauge the extent of macroeconomic risks. Of the 15 low-income countries that are increasing aid-financed health spending, 7 have high macroeconomic risks that may constrain the sustained expansion of spending. These conditions also apply in one-quarter of the 42 countries not presently increasing spending. Health authorities should be aware of the multiple risk factors at play, including factors that are health-sector specific and others that generally are not. They should also realize that there are effective means for mitigating the risk of Dutch disease associated with increasing development assistance for health. International partners also have an important role to play since more sustainable and predictable flows of donor funding will allow more productivity enhancing investment in physical and human capital, which will also contribute to ensuring there are few harmful macroeconomic effects of increases in aid.

Advancing the adverse outcome pathway framework: An international horizon scanning approach

EPA Science Inventory

In 2016, an international multi-sector steering committee focusing on the development of a Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC) Pellston™ Workshop reached out to the membership of the Society of Toxicology, as well as other national and internatio...

AGRICULTURAL CHEMICAL SAFETY ASSESSMENT: A MULTISECTOR APPROACH TO THE MODERNIZATION OF HUMAN SAFETY REQUIREMENTS.

EPA Science Inventory

Better understanding of toxicological mechanisms, enhanced testing capabilities, and demands for more sophisticated data for safety and health risk assessment have generated international interest in improving the current testing paradigm for agricultural chemicals. To address th...

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

Blade row dynamic digital compressor program. Volume 1: J85 clean inlet flow and parallel compressor models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesch, W. A.; Steenken, W. G.

1976-01-01

The results are presented of a one-dimensional dynamic digital blade row compressor model study of a J85-13 engine operating with uniform and with circumferentially distorted inlet flow. Details of the geometry and the derived blade row characteristics used to simulate the clean inlet performance are given. A stability criterion based upon the self developing unsteady internal flows near surge provided an accurate determination of the clean inlet surge line. The basic model was modified to include an arbitrary extent multi-sector parallel compressor configuration for investigating 180 deg 1/rev total pressure, total temperature, and combined total pressure and total temperature distortions. The combined distortions included opposed, coincident, and 90 deg overlapped patterns. The predicted losses in surge pressure ratio matched the measured data trends at all speeds and gave accurate predictions at high corrected speeds where the slope of the speed lines approached the vertical.

The macro-economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease incursion in New Zealand.

PubMed

Belton, D J

2004-01-01

The 2001 outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom heightened public concern in New Zealand about the economic consequences of an outbreak of FMD, and resulted in the Reserve Bank and Treasury conducting an assessment of the macro-economic impact of a small FMD outbreak in New Zealand. The study was based on a relatively small outbreak in which 50 properties were infected over a period of two months. Cumulative losses calculated over two years from the beginning of the hypothetical outbreak were estimated at around NZ dollars 10 billion, a figure twice as large as the initial Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry estimate. The main reason for this difference is that the Reserve Bank study included the additional macro-economic effects of a slump in domestic demand. The study also demonstrated that in New Zealand under the conditions of the current OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code for FMD, the economic impact of any programme to control FMD by vaccination in which vaccinated animals are not slaughtered, is significantly worse than rapid eradication by stamping out.

Equation-based model for the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

2017-09-01

We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

Planning an integrated agriculture and health program and designing its evaluation: Experience from Western Kenya.

PubMed

Cole, Donald C; Levin, Carol; Loechl, Cornelia; Thiele, Graham; Grant, Frederick; Girard, Aimee Webb; Sindi, Kirimi; Low, Jan

2016-06-01

Multi-sectoral programs that involve stakeholders in agriculture, nutrition and health care are essential for responding to nutrition problems such as vitamin A deficiency among pregnant and lactating women and their infants in many poor areas of lower income countries. Yet planning such multi-sectoral programs and designing appropriate evaluations, to respond to different disciplinary cultures of evidence, remain a challenge. We describe the context, program development process, and evaluation design of the Mama SASHA project (Sweetpotato Action for Security and Health in Africa) which promoted production and consumption of a bio-fortified, orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP). In planning the program we drew upon information from needs assessments, stakeholder consultations, and a first round of the implementation evaluation of a pilot project. The multi-disciplinary team worked with partner organizations to develop a program theory of change and an impact pathway which identified aspects of the program that would be monitored and established evaluation methods. Responding to the growing demand for greater rigour in impact evaluations, we carried out quasi-experimental allocation by health facility catchment area, repeat village surveys for assessment of change in intervention and control areas, and longitudinal tracking of individual mother-child pairs. Mid-course corrections in program implementation were informed by program monitoring, regular feedback from implementers and partners' meetings. To assess economic efficiency and provide evidence for scaling we collected data on resources used and project expenses. Managing the multi-sectoral program and the mixed methods evaluation involved bargaining and trade-offs that were deemed essential to respond to the array of stakeholders, program funders and disciplines involved. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Planning an integrated agriculture and health program and designing its evaluation: Experience from Western Kenya

PubMed Central

Cole, Donald C.; Levin, Carol; Loechl, Cornelia; Thiele, Graham; Grant, Frederick; Girard, Aimee Webb; Sindi, Kirimi; Low, Jan

2016-01-01

Multi-sectoral programs that involve stakeholders in agriculture, nutrition and health care are essential for responding to nutrition problems such as vitamin A deficiency among pregnant and lactating women and their infants in many poor areas of lower income countries. Yet planning such multi-sectoral programs and designing appropriate evaluations, to respond to different disciplinary cultures of evidence, remain a challenge. We describe the context, program development process, and evaluation design of the Mama SASHA project (Sweetpotato Action for Security and Health in Africa) which promoted production and consumption of a bio-fortified, orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP). In planning the program we drew upon information from needs assessments, stakeholder consultations, and a first round of the implementation evaluation of a pilot project. The multi-disciplinary team worked with partner organizations to develop a program theory of change and an impact pathway which identified aspects of the program that would be monitored and established evaluation methods. Responding to the growing demand for greater rigour in impact evaluations, we carried out quasi-experimental allocation by health facility catchment area, repeat village surveys for assessment of change in intervention and control areas, and longitudinal tracking of individual mother-child pairs. Mid-course corrections in program implementation were informed by program monitoring, regular feedback from implementers and partners’ meetings. To assess economic efficiency and provide evidence for scaling we collected data on resources used and project expenses. Managing the multi-sectoral program and the mixed methods evaluation involved bargaining and trade-offs that were deemed essential to respond to the array of stakeholders, program funders and disciplines involved. PMID:27003730

Evaluation of an integrated multisector campaign to increase child helmet use in Vietnam.

PubMed

Nhan, Le Dinh Trong; Parker, Lukas; Son, Mai Thi Hoai; Parker, Erin M; Moore, Matthew R; Sidik, Mirjam; Draisin, Natalie

2017-11-25

This study presents child helmet use before, during and after implementing the Vietnamese National Child Helmet Action Plan (NCHAP) and evaluates its effect on child helmet use. The NCHAP, an integrated multisector campaign, incorporated a wide-scale public awareness campaign, school-based interventions, increased police patrolling and enforcement, and capacity building and support to relevant government departments in target provinces. In Vietnam's three largest cities, 100 schools in 20 districts were selected to monitor motorcycle helmet use behaviour. The effectiveness of the NCHAP was measured by unannounced, filmed observations of student motorcycle passengers and their adult drivers as they arrived or left their schools at four points. Baseline observations at each school were conducted in March 2014, with subsequent observations in April 2015, December 2015 and May 2016. Across the 84 218 observed students, student helmet prevalence increased from 36.1% in March 2014 to 69.3% immediately after the initiation in April 2015. Subsequent observations in December 2015 and May 2016 showed a reduction and stabilisation of helmet use, with 49.8% and 56.9% of students wearing helmets, respectively. Helmet use in students was higher when adult drivers were also wearing helmets. Integrated multisectoral interventions between governments, civil society and the corporate sector that incorporate communications, school-based education, incentives for change and police enforcement have the potential to increase helmet use among children. Future integrated campaigns may be more effective with an increased focus on parents and other adult drivers given their potential influence on child helmet use. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of Multi-Sector Planning in Mixed Equipage Airspace (MSP III)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Nancy; Prevot, Tom; Kessell, Angela; Homola, Jeff; Lee, Hwasoo; Mercer, Joey; Brasil, Connie; Mainini, Matt; Lee, Paul

2011-01-01

A human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation was conducted in May 2010 to determine the feasibility and value 01 conducting multi-sector planning (MSP) operations in a mixed equipage environment. Aircraft were categorized as equipped or unequipped based on the presence or absence of an air-ground data communications (Data Comm) capability for receiving auto-loadable clearances and transfer of communication messages from the air navigation service provider (ANSP). The purpose of the study was to determine the feasibility and possible benefits of introducing multi-sector planning in a mixed equipage context, or whether Data Comm equipage was required for MSP operations. Each test scenario presented one of three different equipage levels to the controllers (10%, 50% or 90% equipped aircraft), so that the operational impact of different equipage levels could be observed. Operational feasibility assessment addressed two related questions: (1) are MSP operations feasible for unequipped aircraft, and (2) are they feasible in a mixed equipage context. Similarly, two categories of potential benefits were explored: (1) system performance improvements (e.g., throughput, workload) associated with MSP at different equipage levels, and (2) the possibility of providing differential service for equipage through MSP operations. Tool requirements (for both planning and controller stations), as well as planning and coordination procedures - within facility (traffic management unit/operational area) and within sector (R-Side/D-Side) - were two other topics addressed in the study. Overall, results suggested that MSP operations were feasible in a mixed equipage environment and that the tools were effective with both equipped and unequipped aircraft. Using the MSP tools, traffic management coordinators were able to manage controller task load, effectively balancing throughput with complexity and controller task load at each of the three equipage levels tested.

Theoretical bases of project management in conditions of innovative economy based on fuzzy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beilin, I. L.; Khomenko, V. V.

2018-05-01

In recent years, more and more Russian enterprises (both private and public) are trying to organize their activities on the basis of modern scientific research in order to improve the management of economic processes. Business planning, financial and investment analysis, modern software products based on the latest scientific developments are introduced everywhere. At the same time, there is a growing demand for market research (both at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels), for financial and general economic information.

An Application of Response Surface Methodology to a Macroeconomic Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

L21,ILI,ISl ,KI,SBI,PYl ,MI,P11,Q1 double precision TE,TW,TC,TN,TR,G,W2,R2,T,H,NP,NL,N8,NE,FR, :: & PF,LB A double precision CLI, SCLI ,PCL1IDL1 ,WlLl...TCLI-TNLI- SCLI )*PILI/PRLI) & .0.012*FR)+0.5*R1 PR=0.5*(-131. 17+2.32.PI)+0.5*PR *The monetary sector is omitted (See Chapter IV) C L1=0.5*(0.14*(M-TW

Short-term energy outlook. Volume 2. Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1983-05-01

Recent changes in forecasting methodology for nonutility distillate fuel oil demand and for the near-term petroleum forecasts are discussed. The accuracy of previous short-term forecasts of most of the major energy sources published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook is evaluated. Macroeconomic and weather assumptions are included in this evaluation. Energy forecasts for 1983 are compared. Structural change in US petroleum consumption, the use of appropriate weather data in energy demand modeling, and petroleum inventories, imports, and refinery runs are discussed.

Estimation and Control of Nonlinear and Hybrid Systems with Applications to Air-to-Air Guidance

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-31

systems. flexible structures [13], and last but not least Hence, some conditions for detariniing the macroeconomic models (5]. stability of hybrid...equation being defined almost everywhere, the propagation of the characteristic function is introduced. Denote the characteristic function of Pa as Oa (v,w...initial condition is ( Da (v,w;Ox,zo;O)=ejvxoejwzo and the auxilary conditions correspond to (13), i.e., 0a(O,O;TlxO,zO;O)=. Similar to the case for the

Exploring the Dynamics and Modeling National Budget as a Supply Chain System: A Proposal for Reengineering the Budgeting Process and for Developing a Management Flight Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Elmendorf, D. W., & Gregory Mankiw , N. (1999). Government debt. Handbook of Macroeconomics , 1, 1615-1669. European Union. European financial stability...budget process, based on the supply chain demand management process principles of operations and it is introduced the idea of developing a Budget... principles of systems dynamics, a proposal for the development of a Budget Management Flight Simulator, that will operate as a learning and educational

Cosmetic surgery in times of recession: macroeconomics for plastic surgeons.

PubMed

Krieger, Lloyd M

2002-10-01

Periods of economic downturn place special demands on the plastic surgeon whose practice involves a large amount of cosmetic surgery. When determining strategy during difficult economic times, it is useful to understand the macroeconomic background of these downturns and to draw lessons from businesses in other service industries. Business cycles and monetary policy determine the overall environment in which plastic surgery is practiced. Plastic surgeons can take both defensive and proactive steps to maintain their profits during recessions and to prepare for the inevitable upturn. Care should also be taken when selecting pricing strategy during economic slowdowns.

The Great Recession, genetic sensitivity, and maternal harsh parenting

PubMed Central

Lee, Dohoon; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; McLanahan, Sara S.; Notterman, Daniel; Garfinkel, Irwin

2013-01-01

Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, this study examined the effects of the Great Recession on maternal harsh parenting. We found that changes in macroeconomic conditions, rather than current conditions, affected harsh parenting, that declines in macroeconomic conditions had a stronger impact on harsh parenting than improvements in conditions, and that mothers’ responses to adverse economic conditions were moderated by the DRD2 Taq1A genotype. We found no evidence of a moderating effect for two other, less well-studied SNPs from the DRD4 and DAT1 genes. PMID:23918380

Using Systems Thinking to train future leaders in global health.

PubMed

Paxton, Anne; Frost, Laura J

2017-07-09

Systems Thinking provides a useful set of concepts and tools that can be used to train students to be effective and innovative global health leaders in an ever-changing and often chaotic world. This paper describes an experiential, multi-disciplinary curriculum that uses Systems Thinking to frame and analyse global health policies and practices. The curriculum uses case studies and hands-on activities to deepen students' understanding of the following concepts: complex adaptive systems, dynamic complexity, inter-relationships, feedback loops, policy resistance, mental models, boundary critique, leverage points, and multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral, and multi-stakeholder thinking and action. A sample of Systems Thinking tools for analysing global health policies and practices are also introduced.

Integrating Psychosocial Programs in Multisector Responses to International Disasters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diaz, Joseph Orlando Prewitt

2008-01-01

This article describes the role of psychosocial support programs in American Red Cross-sponsored humanitarian assistance efforts in international disasters. The American Red Cross psychosocial support program consists of four specific components: participatory crisis assessment, dealing with survivors' root shock, community mobilization, and…

Leveraging Community Resources: Creating Successful Partnerships to Improve Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aidman, Barry; Baray, Sarah Nelson

2016-01-01

Educational leaders increasingly acknowledge the importance of developing partnerships to address pressing and persistent educational concerns. This article reports the results of a qualitative case study that examined an exurban district's efforts to improve educational outcomes through the development of multisector partnerships with community…

The Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB): A Tool for Understanding Sustainability

EPA Science Inventory

The MSSB is the first and only decision support tool containing information from scientific literature and technical reports that can be used to develop and implement sustainability initiatives. The MSSB is designed to assist individuals and communities in understanding the impa...

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts are diverse, long-term, and not easily predictable. Adapting to climate change requires making context specific and forward-looking decisions regarding a variety of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities when the future is highly uncertain. EPA scientis...

Women's Literacy and Empowerment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nguyen, Thi Van; Vu, Van Duc

This paper discusses initiatives of the Vietnamese government to address the educational and training needs of the working population, particularly women. Since 1986, the Vietnamese government has initiated efforts to develop a multisectoral, market-oriented economy. Education and training are considered to be essential for promoting long-term…

Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

PubMed

Lyerly, W H

1996-01-01

Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

Dealing with largemouth bass virus: benefits of multisector collaboration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terre, David R.; Schramm, Harold; Grizzle , John M.; Fries, Loraine T.

2015-01-01

Largemouth bass virus (LMBV), a recently identified pathogen, affected largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) in the southeastern United States beginning in the 1990s. Concern about the impacts of this little-known pathogen on largemouth bass populations, effects on fisheries management, and the need to provide anglers and the media with consistent and accurate information prompted a private organization (Bass Anglers Sportsman Society) to invite managers and researchers from state and federal agencies and universities to a series of five annual public workshops beginning in 2000. These workshops provided a mechanism to share information, identify and prioritize action items, and develop consensus information and outreach materials that could be provided to bass anglers and the media. Regionalizing the LMBV issue and collaboration among researchers, managers, and a fishing organization may also have allayed angler and media concerns. The process embodied in these workshops is offered as a successful example of multi-agency, multi-sector collaboration to facilitate information acquisition and guide action to address a regional fisheries management issue.

Responding to Communicable Diseases in Internationally Mobile Populations at Points of Entry and along Porous Borders, Nigeria, Benin, and Togo

PubMed Central

Rogers, Kimberly; Ward, Sarah; Ojo, Olubumni; Kakaī, Clement Glele; Agbeko, Tamekloe Tsidi; Garba, Hassan; MacGurn, Amanda; Oppert, Marydale; Kone, Idrissa; Bamsa, Olutola; Schneider, Dana; Brown, Clive

2017-01-01

Recent multinational disease outbreaks demonstrate the risk of disease spreading globally before public health systems can respond to an event. To ensure global health security, countries need robust multisectoral systems to rapidly detect and respond to domestic or imported communicable diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention International Border Team works with the governments of Nigeria, Togo, and Benin, along with Pro-Health International and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Organization, to build sustainable International Health Regulations capacities at points of entry (POEs) and along border regions. Together, we strengthen comprehensive national and regional border health systems by developing public health emergency response plans for POEs, conducting qualitative assessments of public health preparedness and response capacities at ground crossings, integrating internationally mobile populations into national health surveillance systems, and formalizing cross-border public health coordination. Achieving comprehensive national and regional border health capacity, which advances overall global health security, necessitates multisectoral dedication to the aforementioned components. PMID:29155668

Multisector scintillation detector with fiber-optic light collection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ampilogov, N. V.; Denisov, S. P.; Kokoulin, R. P.; Petrukhin, A. A.; Prokopenko, N. N.; Shulzhenko, I. A.; Unatlokov, I. B.; Yashin, I. I.

2017-07-01

A new type of scintillation detector for the use in high energy physics is described. The octagonal detector consists of eight triangular scintillator sectors with total area of 1 m2. Each sector represents two plates of 2 cm thick plastic scintillator. Seven 1 mm thick WLS fibers are laid evenly between the plates. The space between the fibers is filled with silicone compound to provide better light collection. Fiber ends from all eight sectors are gathered in the central part of the detector into a bunch and docked to the cathode of a FEU-115m photomultiplier. The read-out of the counter signals is carried out from 7th and 12th dynodes, providing a wide dynamic range up to about 10000 particles. The front-end electronics of the detector is based on the flash-ADC with a sampling frequency of 200 MHz. The features of detecting and recording systems of the multisector scintillation detector (MSD) and the results of its testing are discussed.

Joint External Evaluation—Development and Scale-Up of Global Multisectoral Health Capacity Evaluation Process

PubMed Central

Bell, Elizabeth; Ijaz, Kashef; Bartee, Maureen; Fernandez, Jose; Burris, Hannah; Sliter, Karen; Nikkari, Simo; Chungong, Stella; Rodier, Guenael; Jafari, Hamid

2017-01-01

The Joint External Evaluation (JEE), a consolidation of the World Health Organization (WHO) International Health Regulations 2005 (IHR 2005) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and the Global Health Security Agenda country assessment tool, is an objective, voluntary, independent peer-to-peer multisectoral assessment of a country’s health security preparedness and response capacity across 19 IHR technical areas. WHO approved the standardized JEE tool in February 2016. The JEE process is wholly transparent; countries request a JEE and are encouraged to make its findings public. Donors (e.g., member states, public and private partners, and other public health institutions) can support countries in addressing identified JEE gaps, and implementing country-led national action plans for health security. Through July 2017, 52 JEEs were completed, and 25 more countries were scheduled across WHO’s 6 regions. JEEs facilitate progress toward IHR 2005 implementation, thereby building trust and mutual accountability among countries to detect and respond to public health threats. PMID:29155678

Responding to Communicable Diseases in Internationally Mobile Populations at Points of Entry and along Porous Borders, Nigeria, Benin, and Togo.

PubMed

Merrill, Rebecca D; Rogers, Kimberly; Ward, Sarah; Ojo, Olubumni; Kakaī, Clement Glele; Agbeko, Tamekloe Tsidi; Garba, Hassan; MacGurn, Amanda; Oppert, Marydale; Kone, Idrissa; Bamsa, Olutola; Schneider, Dana; Brown, Clive

2017-12-01

Recent multinational disease outbreaks demonstrate the risk of disease spreading globally before public health systems can respond to an event. To ensure global health security, countries need robust multisectoral systems to rapidly detect and respond to domestic or imported communicable diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention International Border Team works with the governments of Nigeria, Togo, and Benin, along with Pro-Health International and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Organization, to build sustainable International Health Regulations capacities at points of entry (POEs) and along border regions. Together, we strengthen comprehensive national and regional border health systems by developing public health emergency response plans for POEs, conducting qualitative assessments of public health preparedness and response capacities at ground crossings, integrating internationally mobile populations into national health surveillance systems, and formalizing cross-border public health coordination. Achieving comprehensive national and regional border health capacity, which advances overall global health security, necessitates multisectoral dedication to the aforementioned components.

Wireless optical network for a home network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchet, Olivier; Porcon, Pascal; Walewski, Joachim W.; Nerreter, Stefan; Langer, Klaus-Dieter; Fernández, Luz; Vucic, Jelena; Kamalakis, Thomas; Ntogari, Georgia; Neokosmidis, Ioannis; Gueutier, Eric

2010-08-01

During the European collaborative project OMEGA, two optical-wireless prototypes have been developed. The first prototype operates in the near-infrared spectral region and features Giga Ethernet connectivity, a simple transceiver architecture due to the use of on-off keying, a multi-sector transceiver, and an ultra-fast switch for sector-to-sector hand over. This full-duplex system, composed by one base station and one module, transmits data on three meters. The second prototype is a visible-light-communications system based on DMT signal processing and an adapted MAC sublayer. Data rates around to 100 Mb/s at the physical layer are achieved. This broadcast system, composed also by one base station and one module, transmits data up to two meters. In this paper we present the adapted optical wireless media-access-control sublayer protocol for visible-light communications. This protocol accommodates link adaptation from 128 Mb/s to 1024 Mb/s with multi-sector coverage, and half-duplex or full-duplex transmission.

Global Mental Health: sharing and synthesizing knowledge for sustainable development.

PubMed

O'Donnell, K; O'Donnell, M Lewis

2016-01-01

Global mental health (GMH) is a growing domain with an increasing capacity to positively impact the world community's efforts for sustainable development and wellbeing. Sharing and synthesizing GMH and multi-sectoral knowledge, the focus of this paper, is an important way to support these global efforts. This paper consolidates some of the most recent and relevant 'context resources' [global multi-sector (GMS) materials, emphasizing world reports on major issues] and 'core resources' (GMH materials, including newsletters, texts, conferences, training, etc.). In addition to offering a guided index of materials, it presents an orientation framework (global integration) to help make important information as accessible and useful as possible. Mental health colleagues are encouraged to stay current in GMH and global issues, to engage in the emerging agendas for sustainable development and wellbeing, and to intentionally connect and contribute across sectors. Colleagues in all sectors are encouraged to do likewise, and to take advantage of the wealth of shared and synthesized knowledge in the GMH domain, such as the materials featured in this paper.

Evaluation overview for the Massachusetts Childhood Obesity Research Demonstration (MA-CORD) project.

PubMed

Davison, Kirsten K; Falbe, Jennifer; Taveras, Elsie M; Gortmaker, Steve; Kulldorff, Martin; Perkins, Meghan; Blaine, Rachel E; Franckle, Rebecca L; Ganter, Claudia; Baidal, Jennifer Woo; Kwass, Jo-Ann; Buszkiewicz, James; Smith, Lauren; Land, Thomas

2015-02-01

The Massachusetts Childhood Obesity Research Demonstration (MA-CORD) project is a 2-year, multilevel, multisector community intervention to prevent and control obesity among children 2-12 years of age from two predominantly low-income communities in Massachusetts. MA-CORD includes evidence-based interventions in multiple sectors, including community health centers, early care and education centers, schools, afterschool programs, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, and the broader community. Currently, implementation of MA-CORD is complete and the final year of data collection is in progress. Here, the MA-CORD evaluation plan is described and baseline data are presented. The impact of MA-CORD on children's BMI, lifestyle behaviors, obesity-related care, and quality of life will be assessed using sector-specific, pre/post, time-series, and quasi-experimental designs. Change in the primary outcomes will be compared for intervention and comparison communities. Additionally, change in mean BMI and obesity prevalence in intervention school districts will be compared to similar districts throughout the state. At baseline in 2012, approximately 16% of preschool-aged and 25% of school-aged children were obese. Moreover, 15-40% of children consumed no vegetables on the previous day, 25-75% drank a sugar-sweetened beverage on the previous day, up to 87% had insufficient physical activity, 50-75% had a television in the room where they slept, and 50-80% obtained insufficient sleep. There is ample room for improvement in BMI and health behaviors in children in MA-CORD communities. If successful, MA-CORD may serve as a model for multilevel, multisector approaches to childhood obesity prevention and control.

Public health nutrition capacity: assuring the quality of workforce preparation for scaling up nutrition programmes.

PubMed

Shrimpton, Roger; du Plessis, Lisanne M; Delisle, Hélène; Blaney, Sonia; Atwood, Stephen J; Sanders, David; Margetts, Barrie; Hughes, Roger

2016-08-01

To describe why and how capacity-building systems for scaling up nutrition programmes should be constructed in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Position paper with task force recommendations based on literature review and joint experience of global nutrition programmes, public health nutrition (PHN) workforce size, organization, and pre-service and in-service training. The review is global but the recommendations are made for LMIC scaling up multisectoral nutrition programmes. The multitude of PHN workers, be they in the health, agriculture, education, social welfare, or water and sanitation sector, as well as the community workers who ensure outreach and coverage of nutrition-specific and -sensitive interventions. Overnutrition and undernutrition problems affect at least half of the global population, especially those in LMIC. Programme guidance exists for undernutrition and overnutrition, and priority for scaling up multisectoral programmes for tackling undernutrition in LMIC is growing. Guidance on how to organize and scale up such programmes is scarce however, and estimates of existing PHN workforce numbers - although poor - suggest they are also inadequate. Pre-service nutrition training for a PHN workforce is mostly clinical and/or food science oriented and in-service nutrition training is largely restricted to infant and young child nutrition. Unless increased priority and funding is given to building capacity for scaling up nutrition programmes in LMIC, maternal and child undernutrition rates are likely to remain high and nutrition-related non-communicable diseases to escalate. A hybrid distance learning model for PHN workforce managers' in-service training is urgently needed in LMIC.

Community stakeholders' perceptions of barriers to childhood obesity prevention in low-income families, Massachusetts 2012-2013.

PubMed

Ganter, Claudia; Chuang, Emmeline; Aftosmes-Tobio, Alyssa; Blaine, Rachel E; Giannetti, Mary; Land, Thomas; Davison, Kirsten K

2015-03-26

The etiology of childhood obesity is multidimensional and includes individual, familial, organizational, and societal factors. Policymakers and researchers are promoting social-ecological approaches to obesity prevention that encompass multiple community sectors. Programs that successfully engage low-income families in making healthy choices are greatly needed, yet little is known about the extent to which stakeholders understand the complexity of barriers encountered by families. The objective of this study was to contextually frame barriers faced by low-income families reported by community stakeholders by using the Family Ecological Model (FEM). From 2012 through 2013, we conducted semistructured interviews with 39 stakeholders from 2 communities in Massachusetts that were participating in a multisector intervention for childhood obesity prevention. Stakeholders represented schools; afterschool programs; health care; the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; and early care and education. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, coded, and summarized. Stakeholder reports of the barriers experienced by low-income families had a strong degree of overlap with FEM and reflected awareness of the broader contextual factors (eg, availability of community resources, family culture, education) and social and emotional dynamics within families (eg, parent knowledge, social norms, distrust of health care providers, chronic life stressors) that could affect family adoption of healthy lifestyle behaviors. Furthermore, results illustrated a level of consistency in stakeholder awareness across multiple community sectors. The congruity of stakeholder perspectives with those of low-income parents as summarized in FEM and across community sectors illustrates potential for synergizing the efforts necessary for multisector, multilevel community interventions for the prevention of childhood obesity.

GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koike, T.; Lawford, R. G.; Cripe, D.

2012-12-01

It is critically important to recognize and co-manage the fundamental linkages across the water-dependent domains; land use, including deforestation; ecosystem services; and food-, energy- and health-securities. Sharing coordinated, comprehensive and sustained observations and information for sound decision-making is a first step; however, to take full advantage of these opportunities, we need to develop an effective collaboration mechanism for working together across different disciplines, sectors and agencies, and thereby gain a holistic view of the continuity between environmentally sustainable development, climate change adaptation and enhanced resilience. To promote effective multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary collaboration based on coordinated and integrated efforts, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is now developing a "GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator (WCI)", which integrates "Earth observations", "modeling", "data and information", "management systems" and "education systems". GEOSS/WCI sets up "work benches" by which partners can share data, information and applications in an interoperable way, exchange knowledge and experiences, deepen mutual understanding and work together effectively to ultimately respond to issues of both mitigation and adaptation. (A work bench is a virtual geographical or phenomenological space where experts and managers collaborate to use information to address a problem within that space). GEOSS/WCI enhances the coordination of efforts to strengthen individual, institutional and infrastructure capacities, especially for effective interdisciplinary coordination and integration. GEO has established the GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) and GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI). Through regional, inter-disciplinary, multi-sectoral integration and inter-agency coordination in Asia and Africa, GEOSS/WCI is now leading to effective actions and public awareness in support of water security and sustainable development.

Nurses' labour supply elasticities: the importance of accounting for extensive margins.

PubMed

Hanel, Barbara; Kalb, Guyonne; Scott, Anthony

2014-01-01

We estimate a multi-sector model of nursing qualification holders' labour supply in different occupations. A structural approach allows us to model the labour force participation decision, the occupational and shift-type choice, and the decision about hours worked as a joint outcome following from maximising a utility function. Disutility from work is allowed to vary by occupation and also by shift type in the utility function. Our results suggest that average wage elasticities might be higher than previous research has found. This is mainly due to the effect of wages on the decision to enter or exit the profession, which was not included in the previous literature, rather than from its effect on increased working hours for those who already work in the profession. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang; Wang, David Han-Min; Chen, Su-Jane

2006-04-01

The size of the ‘underground economy’ (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to model Taiwan's UE over the period from 1960 to 2003. Two major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate and the degree of government regulation, are used. The size of Taiwan's UE is scaled and compared with those of other models. Although our approach yields different estimates, similar patterns and leading are exhibited throughout the period. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofold. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand.

The relationship between macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators and work-related injuries among Danish construction workers.

PubMed

Nielsen, Kent Jacob; Lander, F; Lauritsen, J M

2015-04-01

The current study examines and compares the relationship between both macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators, and work-related injuries among construction workers in Denmark using emergency department (ED) injury data and also officially reported injuries to the Danish Working Environment Authority (WEA). The correlations between ED and WEA injury data from the catchment area of Odense University Hospital during the period 1984-2010 were tested separately for variability and trend with two general macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product and the Danish unemployment rate) and two construction industry-specific indicators (gross value added and the number of employees). The results show that injury rates increase during economic booms and decrease during recessions. However, the regression coefficients were generally weak for both the ED (range 0.14-0.20) and WEA injuries (range 0.13-0.36). Furthermore, although there is some variability in the strength of the relationship of the different business cycle indicators, the relationships are generally not stronger for the WEA injuries than for the ED injuries, except for general unemployment. Similarly, no substantial differences in strength of relation between industry-specific and macroeconomic indicators were identified. The study shows that there was no difference in the relationship between business cycle indicators, and WEA and ED injury data. This indicates that changes in reporting behaviour do not seem to play a major role in the relation between the business cycle and workplace injuries in a Danish context. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Adverse Outcome Pathways: Moving from a scientific concept to a globally accepted framework

EPA Science Inventory

In 2016, an international multi-sector steering committee focusing on the development of a Society of Environmental Toxicology (SETAC) Pellston Workshop reached out to the membership of the Society of Toxicology as well as other national and international scientific and regulator...

THE ACQUISITION AND APPLICATION OF ABSORPTION, DISTRIBUTION, METABOLISM, AND EXCRETION (ADME) DATA IN AGRICULTURAL CHEMICAL SAFETY ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

A multi-sector international group of government, academic, and industry scientists has developed a proposal for an improved testing scheme for assessing the safety of crop protection chemicals. Incorporation of pharmacokinetic studies describing the absorption, distribution, me...

Design and application of a technologically explicit hybrid energy-economy policy model with micro and macro economic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bataille, Christopher G. F.

2005-11-01

Are further energy efficiency gains, or more recently greenhouse gas reductions, expensive or cheap? Analysts provide conflicting advice to policy makers based on divergent modelling perspectives, a 'top-down/bottom-up debate' in which economists use equation based models that equilibrate markets by maximizing consumer welfare, and technologists use technology simulation models that minimize the financial cost of providing energy services. This thesis summarizes a long term research project to find a middle ground between these two positions that is more useful to policy makers. Starting with the individual components of a behaviourally realistic and technologically explicit simulation model (ISTUM---Inter Sectoral Technology Use Model), or "hybrid", the individual sectors of the economy are linked using a framework of micro and macro economic feedbacks. These feedbacks are taken from the economic theory that informs the computable general equilibrium (CGE) family of models. Speaking in the languages of both economists and engineers, the resulting "physical" equilibrium model of Canada (CIMS---Canadian Integrated Modeling System), equilibrates energy and end-product markets, including imports and exports, for seven regions and 15 economic sectors, including primary industry, manufacturing, transportation, commerce, residences, governmental infrastructure and the energy supply sectors. Several different policy experiments demonstrate the value-added of the model and how its results compare to top-down and bottom-up practice. In general, the results show that technical adjustments make up about half the response to simulated energy policy, and macroeconomic demand adjustments the other half. Induced technical adjustments predominate with minor policies, while the importance of macroeconomic demand adjustment increases with the strength of the policy. Results are also shown for an experiment to derive estimates of future elasticity of substitution (ESUB) and autonomous energy efficiency indices (AEEI) from the model, parameters that could be used in long-run computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis concludes with a summary of the strengths and weakness of the new model as a policy tool, a work plan for its further improvement, and a discussion of the general potential for technologically explicit general equilibrium modelling.

Keynesian multiplier versus velocity of money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yougui; Xu, Yan; Liu, Li

2010-08-01

In this paper we present the relation between Keynesian multiplier and the velocity of money circulation in a money exchange model. For this purpose we modify the original exchange model by constructing the interrelation between income and expenditure. The random exchange yields an agent's income, which along with the amount of money he processed determines his expenditure. In this interactive process, both the circulation of money and Keynesian multiplier effect can be formulated. The equilibrium values of Keynesian multiplier are demonstrated to be closely related to the velocity of money. Thus the impacts of macroeconomic policies on aggregate income can be understood by concentrating solely on the variations of money circulation.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

[Efficiency of medical and economic activities of a sanatorium-and-spa facility in the active phase of the public health system reform under macroeconomic instability].

PubMed

Poliakov, B A; Kizeev, M V

2010-01-01

Results of a comprehensive study have demonstrated that the reform of the public health system currently underway in this country provides conditions for the extension of medical care based at sanatorium-and-spa facilities with simultaneous rise in relevant expenses. Bearing in mind the unstable macroeconomic situation, this requires thorough monitoring medical and economic activities of health resorts for the purpose of enhancing cost efficiency. The goal of optimization can be achieved by increasing competitive capacity based on strict control of expenditures and income redistribution for financing the most promising projects.

Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health.

PubMed

Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

2018-01-01

We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cluster structure of EU-15 countries derived from the correlation matrix analysis of macroeconomic index fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gligor, M.; Ausloos, M.

2007-05-01

The statistical distances between countries, calculated for various moving average time windows, are mapped into the ultrametric subdominant space as in classical Minimal Spanning Tree methods. The Moving Average Minimal Length Path (MAMLP) algorithm allows a decoupling of fluctuations with respect to the mass center of the system from the movement of the mass center itself. A Hamiltonian representation given by a factor graph is used and plays the role of cost function. The present analysis pertains to 11 macroeconomic (ME) indicators, namely the GDP (x1), Final Consumption Expenditure (x2), Gross Capital Formation (x3), Net Exports (x4), Consumer Price Index (y1), Rates of Interest of the Central Banks (y2), Labour Force (z1), Unemployment (z2), GDP/hour worked (z3), GDP/capita (w1) and Gini coefficient (w2). The target group of countries is composed of 15 EU countries, data taken between 1995 and 2004. By two different methods (the Bipartite Factor Graph Analysis and the Correlation Matrix Eigensystem Analysis) it is found that the strongly correlated countries with respect to the macroeconomic indicators fluctuations can be partitioned into stable clusters.

Nationwide Macroeconomic Variables and the Growth Rate of Bariatric Surgeries in Brazil.

PubMed

Cazzo, Everton; Ramos, Almino Cardoso; Pareja, José Carlos; Chaim, Elinton Adami

2018-06-06

The effect of nationwide economic issues on the necessary expansion in the number of bariatric procedures remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether there are correlations between the growth rate in the number of bariatric surgeries and the major macroeconomic variables over time in Brazil. It is a nationwide analysis regarding the number of bariatric surgeries in Brazil and the main national macroeconomic variables from 2003 through 2016: gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and the unemployment rate, as well as the evolution in the number of registered bariatric surgeons. There were significant positive correlations of the growth rate of surgeries with the early variations of the GDP (R = 0.5558; p = 0.04863) and of the overall health expenditure per capita (R = 0.78322; p = 0.00259). The growth rate of the number of bariatric surgeries was not correlated with the unemployment and inflation rates, as well as with the growth rate of available bariatric surgeons. There were direct relationships between the growth rate of bariatric surgeries and the evolutions of the GDP and health care expenditure per capita. These variables appear to influence the nationwide offer of bariatric surgery.

Systems Analysis | Hydrogen and Fuel Cells | NREL

Science.gov Websites

risks. Analysts also develop least-cost scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure rollout in support of the opportunities for multi-sector integration using hydrogen systems as well as the capability and cost associated with the H2USA public-private collaboration. Publications The following technical reports

48 CFR 352.270-8 - Prostitution and related activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Government funds provided under this contract to promote or advocate the legalization or practice of... Government does not require the Contractor to endorse or utilize a multisectoral approach to combating HIV... not apply to any “exempt organizations” (i.e., the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria...

Challenges of Capacity Building in Multisector Community Health Alliances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexander, Jeffrey A.; Christianson, Jon B.; Hearld, Larry R.; Hurley, Robert; Scanlon, Dennis P.

2010-01-01

Capacity building is often described as fundamental to the success of health alliances, yet there are few evaluations that provide alliances with clear guidance on the challenges related to capacity building. This article attempts to identify potential challenges of capacity building in multistakeholder health alliances. The study uses a multiple…

77 FR 59899 - U.S. Multi-Sector Trade Mission to South India and Sri Lanka

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-01

... development of the residential and mixed use, tourism, and healthcare sectors, and encourage applications from... following text: Architecture Services Sub-Sectors [cir] Tourism [cir] Hospital and Healthcare [cir... broad need for all building types, especially for residential development, tourism and health facilities...

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is announcing the availability of this final report prepared by the Air, Climate, and Energy (ACE) Research Program, located within the Office of Research and Development, with support from Cadmus. One of the goals of the ACE research program is to provide scientific informat...

Arabisation in the Moroccan Educational System: Problems and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redouane, Rabia

1998-01-01

Examines the national language question in Morocco and the Moroccan government's development of an elaborate multisector language policy, which has particular significance for the education system. The policy aims at promoting Arabic as the language of literacy and wider communication. The background and implications of this policy are discussed.…

Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings

PubMed Central

Schiavo, Renata; Leung, May May; Brown, Mason

2014-01-01

Objective This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. Methods We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Results Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention’s impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. Conclusions The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising interventions and areas for future investigation. Among them, community-based and participatory interventions seemed to be central within epidemic and emerging disease settings, particularly in low-resource settings. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness is not conclusive and needs to be explored by future studies. Other promising areas for future investigation include multi-component and multi-sectoral approaches to intervention design. Major research gaps referred to any evaluation of the impact of these kinds of interventions on health policy adoption and/or implementation, and social determinants of health. Research on cost-effectiveness also needs to be strengthened. This review identified several research gaps and questions, and discusses potential future directions for increasing capacity for future and more rigorous assessments. PMID:24649867

Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

PubMed

Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

2014-03-01

This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising interventions and areas for future investigation. Among them, community-based and participatory interventions seemed to be central within epidemic and emerging disease settings, particularly in low-resource settings. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness is not conclusive and needs to be explored by future studies. Other promising areas for future investigation include multi-component and multi-sectoral approaches to intervention design. Major research gaps referred to any evaluation of the impact of these kinds of interventions on health policy adoption and/or implementation, and social determinants of health. Research on cost-effectiveness also needs to be strengthened. This review identified several research gaps and questions, and discusses potential future directions for increasing capacity for future and more rigorous assessments.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

PubMed

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

PubMed Central

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

2018-04-01

The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG-Step scenario vs. the BAU scenario while corresponding primary PM0.1 emissions decrease by 36 %. Ultrafine particles (PM0.1) are an emerging pollutant of concern expected to impact public health in future scenarios. The complexity of this situation illustrates the need for realistic treatment of criteria pollutant emissions inventories linked to GHG emissions policies designed for fully developed countries and states with strict existing environmental regulations.

Introduction to focus issue: Synchronization in large networks and continuous media—data, models, and supermodels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, Gregory S.; Grabow, Carsten; Selten, Frank; Ghil, Michael

2017-12-01

The synchronization of loosely coupled chaotic systems has increasingly found applications to large networks of differential equations and to models of continuous media. These applications are at the core of the present Focus Issue. Synchronization between a system and its model, based on limited observations, gives a new perspective on data assimilation. Synchronization among different models of the same system defines a supermodel that can achieve partial consensus among models that otherwise disagree in several respects. Finally, novel methods of time series analysis permit a better description of synchronization in a system that is only observed partially and for a relatively short time. This Focus Issue discusses synchronization in extended systems or in components thereof, with particular attention to data assimilation, supermodeling, and their applications to various areas, from climate modeling to macroeconomics.

Introduction to focus issue: Synchronization in large networks and continuous media-data, models, and supermodels.

PubMed

Duane, Gregory S; Grabow, Carsten; Selten, Frank; Ghil, Michael

2017-12-01

The synchronization of loosely coupled chaotic systems has increasingly found applications to large networks of differential equations and to models of continuous media. These applications are at the core of the present Focus Issue. Synchronization between a system and its model, based on limited observations, gives a new perspective on data assimilation. Synchronization among different models of the same system defines a supermodel that can achieve partial consensus among models that otherwise disagree in several respects. Finally, novel methods of time series analysis permit a better description of synchronization in a system that is only observed partially and for a relatively short time. This Focus Issue discusses synchronization in extended systems or in components thereof, with particular attention to data assimilation, supermodeling, and their applications to various areas, from climate modeling to macroeconomics.

The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

2010-11-01

Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Occupational therapy in India: focus on functional recovery and need for empowerment

PubMed Central

Samuel, Reema; Jacob, K. S.

2017-01-01

While there have been significant advances in treatments for mental disorders over the past century, cure for many mental disorders remains elusive. The complex problems of mental illness require a multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary and multi-dimensional approach to care. The need for focus on biopsychosocial model rather than on biomedical practise, client-centred rather than physician-oriented care, personal rather than clinical recovery, are often preached but rarely practiced. The lack of emphasis on functioning and the limited workforce and evidence base complicate issues related to the care of people with chronic mental illness in India. The role of occupational therapy in bridging the gap between symptomatic improvement and functional recovery is discussed. PMID:28827877

Stochastic sensitivity analysis of the variability of dynamics and transition to chaos in the business cycles model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Ryazanova, Tatyana

2018-01-01

A problem of mathematical modeling of complex stochastic processes in macroeconomics is discussed. For the description of dynamics of income and capital stock, the well-known Kaldor model of business cycles is used as a basic example. The aim of the paper is to give an overview of the variety of stochastic phenomena which occur in Kaldor model forced by additive and parametric random noise. We study a generation of small- and large-amplitude stochastic oscillations, and their mixed-mode intermittency. To analyze these phenomena, we suggest a constructive approach combining the study of the peculiarities of deterministic phase portrait, and stochastic sensitivity of attractors. We show how parametric noise can stabilize the unstable equilibrium and transform dynamics of Kaldor system from order to chaos.

Study of the Bellman equation in a production model with unstable demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrosova, N. K.; Shananin, A. A.

2014-09-01

A production model with allowance for a working capital deficit and a restricted maximum possible sales volume is proposed and analyzed. The study is motivated by the urgency of analyzing well-known problems of functioning low competitive macroeconomic structures. The original formulation of the task represents an infinite-horizon optimal control problem. As a result, the model is formalized in the form of a Bellman equation. It is proved that the corresponding Bellman operator is a contraction and has a unique fixed point in the chosen class of functions. A closed-form solution of the Bellman equation is found using the method of steps. The influence of the credit interest rate on the firm market value assessment is analyzed by applying the developed model.

Community Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Barriers to Childhood Obesity Prevention in Low-Income Families, Massachusetts 2012–2013

PubMed Central

Chuang, Emmeline; Aftosmes-Tobio, Alyssa; Blaine, Rachel E.; Giannetti, Mary; Land, Thomas; Davison, Kirsten K.

2015-01-01

Introduction The etiology of childhood obesity is multidimensional and includes individual, familial, organizational, and societal factors. Policymakers and researchers are promoting social–ecological approaches to obesity prevention that encompass multiple community sectors. Programs that successfully engage low-income families in making healthy choices are greatly needed, yet little is known about the extent to which stakeholders understand the complexity of barriers encountered by families. The objective of this study was to contextually frame barriers faced by low-income families reported by community stakeholders by using the Family Ecological Model (FEM). Methods From 2012 through 2013, we conducted semistructured interviews with 39 stakeholders from 2 communities in Massachusetts that were participating in a multisector intervention for childhood obesity prevention. Stakeholders represented schools; afterschool programs; health care; the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; and early care and education. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, coded, and summarized. Results Stakeholder reports of the barriers experienced by low-income families had a strong degree of overlap with FEM and reflected awareness of the broader contextual factors (eg, availability of community resources, family culture, education) and social and emotional dynamics within families (eg, parent knowledge, social norms, distrust of health care providers, chronic life stressors) that could affect family adoption of healthy lifestyle behaviors. Furthermore, results illustrated a level of consistency in stakeholder awareness across multiple community sectors. Conclusion The congruity of stakeholder perspectives with those of low-income parents as summarized in FEM and across community sectors illustrates potential for synergizing the efforts necessary for multisector, multilevel community interventions for the prevention of childhood obesity. PMID:25811497

GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koike, Toshio; Lawford, Richard; Cripe, Douglas

2013-04-01

It is critically important to recognize and co-manage the fundamental linkages across the water-dependent domains; land use, including deforestation; ecosystem services; and food-, energy- and health-securities. Sharing coordinated, comprehensive and sustained observations and information for sound decision-making is a first step; however, to take full advantage of these opportunities, we need to develop an effective collaboration mechanism for working together across different disciplines, sectors and agencies, and thereby gain a holistic view of the continuity between environmentally sustainable development, climate change adaptation and enhanced resilience. To promote effective multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary collaboration based on coordinated and integrated efforts, the intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). A component of GEOSS now under development is the "GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator (WCI)", which integrates Earth observations, modeling, data and information, management systems and education systems. GEOSS/WCI sets up "work benches" by which partners can share data, information and applications in an interoperable way, exchange knowledge and experiences, deepen mutual understanding and work together effectively to ultimately respond to issues of both mitigation and adaptation. (A work bench is a virtual geographical or phenomenological space where experts and managers collaborate to use information to address a problem within that space). GEOSS/WCI enhances the coordination of efforts to strengthen individual, institutional and infrastructure capacities, especially for effective interdisciplinary coordination and integration. GEO has established the GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) and GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI). Through regional, inter-disciplinary, multi-sectoral integration and inter-agency coordination in Asia and Africa, GEOSS/WCI is now leading to effective actions and public awareness in support of water security and sustainable development.

Evaluation Overview for the Massachusetts Childhood Obesity Research Demonstration (MA-CORD) Project

PubMed Central

Falbe, Jennifer; Taveras, Elsie M.; Gortmaker, Steve; Kulldorff, Martin; Perkins, Meghan; Blaine, Rachel E.; Franckle, Rebecca L.; Ganter, Claudia; Woo Baidal, Jennifer; Kwass, Jo-Ann; Buszkiewicz, James; Smith, Lauren; Land, Thomas

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: The Massachusetts Childhood Obesity Research Demonstration (MA-CORD) project is a 2-year, multilevel, multisector community intervention to prevent and control obesity among children 2–12 years of age from two predominantly low-income communities in Massachusetts. MA-CORD includes evidence-based interventions in multiple sectors, including community health centers, early care and education centers, schools, afterschool programs, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, and the broader community. Currently, implementation of MA-CORD is complete and the final year of data collection is in progress. Here, the MA-CORD evaluation plan is described and baseline data are presented. Methods/Design: The impact of MA-CORD on children's BMI, lifestyle behaviors, obesity-related care, and quality of life will be assessed using sector-specific, pre/post, time-series, and quasi-experimental designs. Change in the primary outcomes will be compared for intervention and comparison communities. Additionally, change in mean BMI and obesity prevalence in intervention school districts will be compared to similar districts throughout the state. Results: At baseline in 2012, approximately 16% of preschool-aged and 25% of school-aged children were obese. Moreover, 15–40% of children consumed no vegetables on the previous day, 25–75% drank a sugar-sweetened beverage on the previous day, up to 87% had insufficient physical activity, 50–75% had a television in the room where they slept, and 50–80% obtained insufficient sleep. Conclusions: There is ample room for improvement in BMI and health behaviors in children in MA-CORD communities. If successful, MA-CORD may serve as a model for multilevel, multisector approaches to childhood obesity prevention and control. PMID:25575095

5 CFR 412.302 - Criteria for a Senior Executive Service candidate development program (SESCDP).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...; and (v) Have Governmentwide or multi-agency applicability in the nature and scope of the training; (2) A formal interagency and/or multi-sector training experience lasting at least 80 hours that addresses the ECQs and their application to SES positions Governmentwide. The training experience must...

Maternal Mental Illness and the Safety and Stability of Maltreated Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohl, Patricia L.; Jonson-Reid, Melissa; Drake, Brett

2011-01-01

Objective: Children of mothers with mental illness are at risk for multiple untoward outcomes, including child maltreatment and foster care placement. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the association between maternal mental illness and children's long term safety and stability. Methods: A multi-sector administrative dataset from the…

76 FR 60765 - Mail or Telephone Order Merchandise Rule

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-30

... access, not telephone dial-up. \\19\\ U.S. Census Bureau, E-Stats, 2007 E-Commerce Multi-Sector Report, May... Shopping and Mail-Order Houses--Total and E-Commerce Sales by Merchandise Line: 2006-2007. Second, consumer... buyers access the Internet (e.g., dial-up telephone modem, cable, or wireless); (2) allow sellers to...

77 FR 48499 - U.S. Multi-Sector Trade Mission to South India and Sri Lanka Chennai and Cochin, India and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-14

... losses in India's transmission and distribution sector exceed 30%, which ranks among the highest rates of... Sri Lanka boost their infrastructure and building requirements. Target subsectors holding high.... The availability of electricity, fresh water, long coastline, backwaters, good banking facilities...

The Paradox of Transformative Learning among Mid-Career Professionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agger-Gupta, Niels; Etmanski, Catherine

2014-01-01

Royal Roads University (RRU) is a special purpose university in British Columbia, Canada. Since 1995, this university has focused primarily on multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary graduate education for working professionals. Most programs are offered in a blended online and face-to-face format, which enables adult learners to continue in their…

Going Local: Priorities and Strategies for Municipal Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutchinson, Audrey M.

2017-01-01

Municipal officials know that education is tied to quality of life and public safety; cities are better off when more people are well-educated. Mayors across the country are dedicating staff to focus on key education issues--to work on partnerships between school districts, their colleges and universities, and to create multi-sector partnerships…

77 FR 69592 - U.S. Multi-Sector Trade Mission to South India and Sri Lanka

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-20

... architecture, infrastructure, hospitality, healthcare, and environmental and information technologies sectors... account in their business planning, US&FCS will begin to make selection decisions beginning November 15... defined as a firm with 500 or fewer employees or that otherwise qualifies as a small business under SBA...

Troubling the Boundaries: Overcoming Methodological Challenges in a Multi-Sectoral and Multi-Jurisdictional HIV/HCV Policy Scoping Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hare, Kathleen A.; Dubé, Anik; Marshall, Zack; Gahagan, Jacqueline; Harris, Gregory E.; Tucker, Maryanne; Dykeman, Margaret; MacDonald, Jo-Ann

2016-01-01

Policy scoping reviews are an effective method for generating evidence-informed policies. However, when applying guiding methodological frameworks to complex policy evidence, numerous, unexpected challenges can emerge. This paper details five challenges experienced and addressed by a policy trainee-led, multi-disciplinary research team, while…

Key Components of Collaborative Research in the Context of Environmental Health: A Scoping Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wine, Osnat; Ambrose, Sarah; Campbell, Sandy; Villeneuve, Paul J.; Burns, Katharina Kovacs; Vargas, Alvaro Osornio

2017-01-01

In a collaborative research process, the participation of interdisciplinary researchers and multi-sectoral stakeholders supports the co-creation, translation, and exchange of new knowledge. Following a scoping review methodology, we explored the collaborative research processes in the specific context of environment and human health research.…

Managing Demand and Capacity Using Multi-Sector Planning and Flexible Airspace: Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of NextGen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Paul U.; Smith, Nancy M.; Prevot, Thomas; Homola, Jeffrey R.

2010-01-01

When demand for an airspace sector exceeds capacity, the balance can be re-established by reducing the demand, increasing the capacity, or both. The Multi-Sector Planner (MSP) concept has been proposed to better manage traffic demand by modifying trajectories across multiple sectors. A complementary approach to MSP, called Flexible Airspace Management (FAM), reconfigures the airspace such that capacity can be reallocated dynamically to balance the traffic demand across multiple sectors, resulting in fewer traffic management initiatives. The two concepts have been evaluated with a series of human-in-the-loop simulations at the Airspace Operations Laboratory to examine and refine the roles of the human operators in these concepts, as well as their tools and procedural requirements. So far MSP and FAM functions have been evaluated individually but the integration of the two functions is desirable since there are significant overlaps in their goals, geographic/temporal scope of the problem space, and the implementation timeframe. Ongoing research is planned to refine the humans roles in the integrated concept.

Addressing non-communicable diseases in the Seychelles: towards a comprehensive plan of action.

PubMed

Bovet, Pascal; Viswanathan, Bharathi; Shamlaye, Conrad; Romain, Sarah; Gedeon, Jude

2010-06-01

This article reviews the different steps taken during the past 20 years for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Seychelles. National surveys revealed high levels of several cardiovascular risk factors and prompted an organized response, starting with the creation of an NCD unit in the Ministry of Health. Information campaigns and nationwide activities raised awareness and rallied increasingly broad and high-level support. Significant policy was developed including comprehensive tobacco legislation and a School Nutrition Policy that bans soft drinks in schools. NCD guidelines were developed and specialized 'NCD nurses' were trained to complement doctors in district health centers. Decreasing smoking prevalence is evidence of success, but the raising so-called diabesity epidemic calls for an integrated multi-sector policy to mould an environment conducive to healthy behaviors. Essential components of these efforts include: effective surveillance mechanisms supplemented by focused research; generating broad interest and consensus; mobilizing leadership and commitment at all levels; involving local and international expertise; building on existing efforts; and seeking integrated, multi-disciplinary and multi-sector approaches.

Photovoltaic venture analysis. Final report. Volume I. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costello, D.; Posner, D.; Schiffel, D.

1978-07-01

The objective of the study, government programs under investigation, and a brief review of the approach are presented. Potential markets for photovoltaic systems relevant to the study are described. The response of the photovoltaic supply industry is then considered. A model which integrates the supply and demand characteristics of photovoltaics over time was developed. This model also calculates the economic benefits associated with various government subsidy programs. Results are derived under alternative possible supply, demand, and macroeconomic conditions. A probabilistic analysis of the costs and benefits of a $380 million federal photovoltaic procurement initiative, as well as certain alternative strategies,more » is summarized. Conclusions and recommendations based on the analysis are presented.« less

Applying Input-Output Model to Estimate Broader Economic Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.

A process for developing multisectoral strategies for zoonoses: the case of leptospirosis in Fiji.

PubMed

Reid, Simon A; Rodney, Anna; Kama, Mike; Hill, Peter S

2017-08-22

Zoonotic diseases such as leptospirosis occur as a result of the often complex interactions that exist at the human-animal-environment interface. The most obvious consequence of this complexity is the need for the health sector to partner with institutions in other sectors of society such as agriculture, labour and local government. This multisectoral engagement is complicated by the different agendas and cultures of the various institutions and their ability to "see" their role and ant benefits in a collaborative response. The research used a realist review methodology combined with systems thinking frameworks to determine the optimal strategy and governance for the prevention and control of leptospirosis in Fiji. The process included facilitated workshops with multiple stakeholders to determine the needs, issues and potential interventions that was guided by a synthesis of locally available data and information on the impact of leptospirosis. This process was informed by interviews with bureaucrats from different government ministries. Stakeholders concurred that leptospirosis generally only received wide-spread attention in outbreaks, when there is media coverage of deaths or a large number of hospitalisations. In general, all ministries expressed support for a multisectoral strategy but saw the Ministry of Health and Medical Services as the lead agency with overall responsibility. The final consultation workshop yielded a clearly articulated goal to reduce the case fatality rate attributable to leptospirosis by 50% by 2020 and 4 overarching strategies: 1) improved clinical management of leptospirosis, 2) improved surveillance for leptospirosis, 3) enhanced communication to minimise risk and improve health seeking behaviours, and 4) strengthening coordination and governance structures. Human mortality and morbidity remained the primary drive for government action, defining leptospirosis as a human health problem. The process of deliberative consultation, and the engagement of multidisciplinary partners has provided a platform for collaborative policy development, and a consensus for a National Action Plan from which further negotiated collaboration will be possible.

Multisectoral prioritization of zoonotic diseases in Uganda, 2017: A One Health perspective

PubMed Central

Bulage, Lilian; Kihembo, Christine; Nantima, Noelina; Monje, Fred; Ndumu, Deo; Sentumbwe, Juliet; Mbolanyi, Betty; Aruho, Robert; Kaboyo, Winyi; Mutonga, David; Basler, Colin; Paige, Sarah; Barton Behravesh, Casey

2018-01-01

Background Zoonotic diseases continue to be a public health burden globally. Uganda is especially vulnerable due to its location, biodiversity, and population. Given these concerns, the Ugandan government in collaboration with the Global Health Security Agenda conducted a One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization Workshop to identify zoonotic diseases of greatest national concern to the Ugandan government. Materials and methods The One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization tool, a semi-quantitative tool developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was used for the prioritization of zoonoses. Workshop participants included voting members and observers representing multiple government and non-governmental sectors. During the workshop, criteria for prioritization were selected, and questions and weights relevant to each criterion were determined. We used a decision tree to provide a ranked list of zoonoses. Participants then established next steps for multisectoral engagement for the prioritized zoonoses. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated how criteria weights impacted disease prioritization. Results Forty-eight zoonoses were considered during the workshop. Criteria selected to prioritize zoonotic diseases were (1) severity of disease in humans in Uganda, (2) availability of effective control strategies, (3) potential to cause an epidemic or pandemic in humans or animals, (4) social and economic impacts, and (5) bioterrorism potential. Seven zoonotic diseases were identified as priorities for Uganda: anthrax, zoonotic influenza viruses, viral hemorrhagic fevers, brucellosis, African trypanosomiasis, plague, and rabies. Sensitivity analysis did not indicate significant changes in zoonotic disease prioritization based on criteria weights. Discussion One Health approaches and multisectoral collaborations are crucial to the surveillance, prevention, and control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Uganda used such an approach to identify zoonoses of national concern. Identifying these priority diseases enables Uganda’s National One Health Platform and Zoonotic Disease Coordination Office to address these zoonoses in the future with a targeted allocation of resources. PMID:29715287

The macroeconomic determinants of health.

PubMed

Subramanian, S V; Belli, Paolo; Kawachi, Ichiro

2002-01-01

Why are some societies healthier than others? The consensus in development economics is that the health achievement of nations has to do with their levels of economic development. Higher per capita incomes, through steady and stable economic growth, increase a nation's capacity to purchase the necessary economic goods and services that promote health. In this paper, we review the conceptual and empirical linkages between poverty and poor health in both developing and developed countries. The empirical evidence is overwhelming that poverty, measured at the level of societies as well as individuals, is causally related to poor health of societies and individuals, respectively. Recent macroeconomic research has also drawn attention to the role of health as a form of human capital that is vital for achieving economic stability. In particular, attention has been drawn toward the ways in which unhealthy societies impede the process of economic development. However, the reciprocal connection between economic prosperity and improved health is neither automatic nor universal. Other features of society, such as the equality in the distribution of the national wealth, seem to matter as well for improving average population health and especially for reducing inequalities in health. We conclude by arguing for a need to reexamine the way in which health is conceptualized within the macroeconomic development framework.

Report of the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: a critique.

PubMed

Banerji, Debabar

2002-01-01

The World Health Organization has been able to interest some of the world's top economists in joining the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, to study macroeconomics of health services for the poor peoples of the world. The commission has been ahistorical, apolitical, and atheoretical. It has adopted a selective approach to conform to a preconceived ideology. It has ignored earlier work done in this field. And it has pointedly ignored such major developments in the health services as the Alma-Ata Declaration. These failings have brought the quality of the scholastic work to an almost rock-bottom level. The commission's tunnel vision in its recommendations on so important a subject is not surprising. Its emphatic recommendations for perpetuating vertical programs against major communicable diseases (tuberculosis, AIDS, and malaria) on the grounds that such programs have proved convenient to "donors" reveals the real motivations for an almost openly ideology-driven agenda. This is a serious danger signal for scholars who wish to take a scientific attitude toward program formulations for the poor that provide maximum returns from limited resources. The concept of DALYs (disability adjusted life years) is bristling with gross infirmities. The WHO-generated data used for DALY calculations, converted into dollar terms, are patently invalid, unreliable, and not comparable between and even within countries.

Production model in the conditions of unstable demand taking into account the influence of trading infrastructure: Ergodicity and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrosova, N. K.; Shananin, A. A.

2015-04-01

A production model with allowance for a working capital deficit and a restricted maximum possible sales volume is proposed and analyzed. The study is motivated by an attempt to analyze the problems of functioning of low competitive macroeconomic structures. The model is formalized in the form of a Bellman equation, for which a closed-form solution is found. The stochastic process of product stock variations is proved to be ergodic and its final probability distribution is found. Expressions for the average production load and the average product stock are found by analyzing the stochastic process. A system of model equations relating the model variables to official statistical parameters is derived. The model is identified using data from the Fiat and KAMAZ companies. The influence of the credit interest rate on the firm market value assessment and the production load level are analyzed using comparative statics methods.

78 FR 15343 - Multi-State, Multi-Sector Trade Mission to Colombia; September 9-12, 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-11

... for intellectual property rights (IPR). Colombia's traditional acceptance of U.S. brands as well as U... Colombia as an export destination. With more than 45 million people, an improved security environment, an... participation in the labor market has increased over 11% in the past five years; Use of free trade zones for...

Multi-Sector Sustainability Browser (MSSB) User Manual: A Decision Support Tool (DST) for Supporting Sustainability Efforts in Four Areas - Land Use, Transportation, Buildings and Infrastructure, and Materials Management

EPA Science Inventory

EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities (SHC) Research Program is developing methodologies, resources, and tools to assist community members and local decision makers in implementing policy choices that facilitate sustainable approaches in managing their resources affecti...

Has the United Nations General Assembly Special Session on HIV/AIDS Made a Difference?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massoud, Nicole; De Lay, Paul; Carael, Michel

2004-01-01

Over the past twenty years, strategies adopted by governments affected by human immunodeficiency virus and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) have gradually changed to ensure a more holistic and effective response to the epidemic. Two major shifts have occurred. Countries have moved from a strictly "health" to a "multisector"…

Perceptions of Strengths and Deficiencies: Disconnects between Graduate Students and Prospective Employers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sundberg, Marshall D.; DeAngelis, Patricia; Havens, Kayri; Zorn-Arnold, Barbara; Kramer, Andrea T.; Holsinger, Kent; Kennedy, Kathryn; Muir, Rachel; Olwell, Peggy; Schierenbeck, Kristina; Stritch, Larry

2011-01-01

The US Botanical Capacity Assessment Project (BCAP) was initiated as a first step to gauge the nation's collective ability to meet the environmental challenges of the 21st century. The project, in which the authors of this article are involved, specifically aimed to identify multisector contributions to and gaps in botanical capacity in order to…

The Second Economy in Disequilibrium and Shortage Models of Centrally Planned Economies

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-07-01

CPEs 70 IV. The Second Economy in Disequilibrium Models 76 A. General Equilibrium Models with a Second Economy 78 B. The Portes Macroeconomic ...44,~g3 C AC4 v- 44,A0-.’ 3-3. 3 ~ .1 a a 0, a~ 0.a c 63 9 o -o.a- *~~~t a A . 2. 0 V 0 m -6 o 0 *Z 1 0 6Q 446O l ~ 4 ~ ~ ~ 1 0 v 90 3 ~ . 0 6 C a A OA ...A - - A C A A A C - - C * - A AY 0 - - A C A - A A - - ’A - ’A 4 A C A 6- C A ’A A - - .C A - - - - oA A A A 6-C - .C ’AA - A A A CI 4 = A

Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilley, Luke A.

In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

Moving the Dial to Advance Population Health Equity in New York City Asian American Populations

PubMed Central

Trinh-Shevrin, Chau; Kwon, Simona C.; Nadkarni, Smiti Kapadia; Islam, Nadia S.

2015-01-01

The shift toward a health equity framework for eliminating the health disparities burden of racial/ethnic minority populations has moved away from a disease-focused model to a social determinants framework that aims to achieve the highest attainment of health for all. The New York University Center for the Study of Asian American Health (CSAAH) has identified core themes and strategies for advancing population health equity for Asian American populations in New York City that are rooted in the following: social determinants of health; multisectoral, community-engaged approaches; leveraging community assets; improved disaggregated data collection and access to care; and building sustainability through community leadership and infrastructure-building activities. We describe the strategies CSAAH employed to move the dial on population health equity. PMID:25905858

Essays in the Application of Linear and Non-linear Bayesian VAR Models to the Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Price Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Bao H.

This thesis is a collection of five self contained empirical macroeconomic papers on the asymmetric effects of energy price shocks on various economies. Chapter 1 formally determines the number of regime changes in the US natural gas market by employing a MS-VAR model. Estimated using Bayesian methods, three regimes are identified for the period 1980 - 2016, namely, before the Decontrol Act, after the Decontrol Act and the Recession. The results show that the natural gas market tends to be much more sensitive to market fundamental shocks occurring in a Recession regime than in the other regimes. Augmenting the model by incorporating the price of crude oil, the results reveal that the impacts of oil price shocks on natural gas prices are relatively small. Chapter 2 provides new empirical evidence on the asymmetric reactions of the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. economy to its market fundamental shocks in different phases of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a ST-VAR model to capture the asymmetric responses depending on economic conditions. Our results indicate that in contrast to the prediction made by a linear VAR model, the STVAR model provides a plausible explanation to the behavior of the U.S. natural gas market, which asymmetrically reacts in bad times and good times. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. Chapter 4 examines the effects of world energy price shocks on China's macroeconomy. We propose a new index of primary commodity energy prices which accurately reflects both the structure of China's energy expenditure shares, as well as intertemporal fluctuations in international energy prices. The index is then in employed a sufficiently rich set of time varying BVARs, identified by a new set of agnostic sign restrictions. Uniformly sized positive energy price shocks are shown to consistently generate economic stagflation over the past two decades. Chapter 5 compares the macroeconomic effects of global oil and iron ore price shocks on the Australian economy. The main results suggest that, over the period 1990Q1 to 2014Q4, the oil shock has a relative larger impact than that of the iron ore shock on output and inflation while the iron ore shock is the dominant source of interest and exchange rate movements. The effects crucially depend on the underlying sources of oil or iron ore price shifts.

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, M. K.

1976-01-01

Seven appendices related to a previous report on the economic impact of NASA R and D spending were presented. They dealt with: (1) theoretical and empirical development of aggregate production functions, (2) the calculation of the time series for the rate of technological progress, (3) the calculation of the industry mix variable, (4) the estimation of distributed lags, (5) the estimation of the equations for gamma, (6) a ten-year forecast of the U.S. economy, (7) simulations of the macroeconomic model for increases in NASA R and D spending of $1.0, $.0.5, and 0.1 billions.

The macroeconomics of Dr. Strangelove

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John, A.A.; Pecchenino, R.A.; Schreft, S.L.

1993-03-01

This paper examines the weapons-accumulation decisions of two adversarial countries in the context of a deterrence/conflict initiation game embedded in an overlapping-generations model. The demographic structure permits analysis of both within- and between-country intergenerational externalities caused by past weapons-accumulation decisions, as well as of intragenerational externalities from the adversary's current weapons accumulation. Zero accumulation is a possible equilibrium with both noncooperative and cooperative behavior. Countries may also accumulate weapons to the point where conflict initiation never occurs. Pareto-improving policies are generally available, but international cooperation need not be Pareto-improving. 15 refs., 12 figs.

U.S. Access to Space Launch Vehicle Choices for 1990-2010

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

Again, the transition from the 1988 manifest to the STAS model was filled in, as shown in Fig. 3.9. 26 30 25 20 -C 15 C Da 10 U) 5 - No space station...3105 5345 7585 10782.5 127 7 5 13968.5 15228 16162 1 9 um osi/b. 18625 8460 3265 2 1 Cost pe ya oA pT&E 0 255 340_ 340 1297.5 1042,5 1193.5 1259,5 934 2...activity is likely to be possible in macroeconomic terms given past efforts. The crucial affordability issue is whether the political cost of

The Science of Science Policy: A Federal Research Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

and Atmospheric Administra on, h p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ oa /climate/globalwarming.html#q4. T S S P : A F R R4 maintain the na on’s dominance...econometric studies, surveys, case studies, and retrospec ve analyses. Econometric studies include the macroeconomic growth models pioneered by Robert...R A W ha t a re th e be ha vi or al fo un da o ns o f i nn ov a- o n? U nd er st an di ng th e be ha vi or o f i nd iv id ua ls an d

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of themore » U.S. economy.« less

The relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aygunes, Gunes

2017-07-01

The objective of this paper is to survey and determine the macroeconomic factors affecting the level of venture capital (VC) investments in a country. The literary depends on venture capitalists' quality and countries' venture capital investments. The aim of this paper is to give relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method. We investigate the countries and macro economic variables. By using statistical computation method, we derive correlation between venture capital investments and macro economic variables. According to method of logistic regression model (logit regression or logit model), macro economic variables are correlated with each other in three group. Venture capitalists regard correlations as a indicator. Finally, we give correlation matrix of our results.

The Sachs report: investing in health for economic development--or increasing the size of the crumbs from the rich man's table? Part II.

PubMed

Katz, Alison

2005-01-01

The Commission on Macroeconomics and Health report (Sachs report of 2001) has been heralded as inspiring and groundbreaking and is being adopted as the blueprint for global health policymaking. This article argues that the report is deeply conservative and unoriginal. It encourages medico-technical solutions to public health problems; it ignores macroeconomic determinants and other root causes of both poor health and poverty; it reverses public health logic and history; it is based on a set of flawed assumptions; it reflects one particular economic perspective to the exclusion of all others; and it recommends greater amounts of charity while preserving the status quo of a deeply unjust and irrational international economic order. Wishful thinking and ideology are presented as established facts to legitimize globalization, and health is conceived primarily as an input to productivity rather than as a human right. The benefits that would result from simple, macroeconomic measures directed toward social justice and the meeting of basic needs are incomparably greater than those that would result from following CMH recommendations in terms of sustainable improvements in both health and economic well-being. The ultimate source of poor health status and miserable living conditions is the extreme concentration of power, nationally and internationally, in the hands of the few.

The impact of the International Monetary Fund's macroeconomic policies on the AIDS pandemic.

PubMed

Baker, Brook K

2010-01-01

Expansion of funding for HIV/AIDS, especially treatment, is under attack over concerns about cost effectiveness and financial constraints. The International Monetary Fund is deeply implicated in the history of the AIDS pandemic, the underlying weakness of health systems, and the ideology of constrained resources that underlies most attacks on AIDS funding. The IMF imposed structural violence on developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s through neoliberal and macroeconomic reforms that intensified individual and communal vulnerability to infection and dismantled already weak health systems. This same macroeconomic fundamentalism has recently been repackaged and renamed. IMF fundamentalist policies continue to prioritize low inflation, constricted government spending, robust foreign currency reserves, and prompt repayment of debt at the expense of investments in health and more expansionary, pro-growth and job-creation policies. Several recent surveys have concluded that the IMF reluctantly relaxed overly restrictive policy prescriptions in response to the global economic crisis, but this relaxation was temporary at best and only extended to countries previously acceding to IMF orthodoxy. AIDS activists are campaigning for billions of dollars to fulfill the promise of universal access. If IMF pressures persist, developing countries will continue to undermine the additionality of donor health financing by substituting donor for domestic financing, refusing to invest in recurrent costs for medicines and health workers, and neglecting needed investments in health infrastructure and health system strengthening.

Health Effects of Short-Term Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Conditions: The Case of Hypertension for Older Americans.

PubMed

Angrisani, Marco; Lee, Jinkook

2016-11-01

We investigate the health effects of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations as described by changes in unemployment rate, house, and stock market price indexes. The 'Great Recession' provides the opportunity to conduct this analysis as it involved contemporaneous shocks to the labor, housing, and stock markets. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study over the period 2004-2010, we relate changes in hypertension status to changes in state-level unemployment rate and house prices and to changes in stock market prices. We consider hypertension, a disease related to stress and of high prevalence among older adults, that has received little attention in the literature linking macroeconomic conditions to individual health. Our analysis exploits self-reports of hypertension diagnosis as well as directly measured blood pressure readings. Using both measures, we find that the likelihood of developing hypertension is negatively related to changes in house prices. Also, decreasing house prices lower the probability of stopping hypertension medication treatment for individuals previously diagnosed with the condition. We do not observe significant associations between hypertension and either changes in unemployment rate or stock market prices. We document heterogeneity in the estimated health effects of the recession by gender, education, asset ownership, and work status. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multisectoral Approaches in Advancing Girls' Education: Lessons Learned in Five SAGE Countries. SAGE Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rugh, Andrea

Strategies for Advancing Girls' Education (SAGE) is a project of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Bureau for Economic Growth, Agriculture and Trade/Office of Women in Development (EGAT/WID). Five countries participated in SAGE: Guinea, Mali, Ghana, El Salvador; and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project started in…

Birth kits for safe motherhood in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Nessa, S; Arco, E S; Kabir, I A

1992-01-01

Tetanus infection remains the leading cause of high neonatal mortality in Bangladesh. Birth kits which instruct and assist in a clean, safe birth are seen as a key measure in reducing the high incidence of neonatal deaths. A multisectoral programme has developed a simple kit and tested its potential for distribution to pregnant women. Initial results are positive and development is continuing.

Mental Health and Other Service Use by Youth in Therapeutic Foster Care and Group Homes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breland-Noble, Alfiee M.; Farmer, Elizabeth M. Z.; Dubs, Melanie S.; Potter, Elizabeth; Burns, Barbara J.

2005-01-01

Little is known about what additional services youth receive while they reside in out-of-home treatment settings. However, such information may be crucial for explaining effectiveness and variation in outcomes for youth in such settings. Our research examines patterns of multi-sector service use for youth in two settings--Therapeutic Foster Care…

How big is too big or how many partners are needed to build a large project which still can be managed successfully?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henkel, Daniela; Eisenhauer, Anton

2017-04-01

During the last decades, the number of large research projects has increased and therewith the requirement for multidisciplinary, multisectoral collaboration. Such complex and large-scale projects pose new competencies to form, manage, and use large, diverse teams as a competitive advantage. For complex projects the effort is magnified because multiple large international research consortia involving academic and non-academic partners, including big industries, NGOs, private and public bodies, all with cultural differences, individually discrepant expectations on teamwork and differences in the collaboration between national and multi-national administrations and research organisations, challenge the organisation and management of such multi-partner research consortia. How many partners are needed to establish and conduct collaboration with a multidisciplinary and multisectoral approach? How much personnel effort and what kinds of management techniques are required for such projects. This presentation identifies advantages and challenges of large research projects based on the experiences made in the context of an Innovative Training Network (ITN) project within Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions of the European HORIZON 2020 program. Possible strategies are discussed to circumvent and avoid conflicts already at the beginning of the project.

Retail food environments in Canada: Maximizing the impact of research, policy and practice.

PubMed

Minaker, Leia M

2016-06-09

Retail food environments are gaining national and international attention as important determinants of population dietary intake. Communities across Canada are beginning to discuss and implement programs and policies to create supportive retail food environments. Three considerations should drive the selection of food environment assessment methods: relevance (What is the problem, and how is it related to dietary outcomes?); resources (What human, time and financial resources are required to undertake an assessment?); and response (How will policy-makers find meaning out of and act on the information gained through the food environment assessment?). Ultimately, food environment assessments should be conducted in the context of stakeholder buy-in and multi-sectoral partnerships, since food environment solutions require multi-sectoral action. Partnerships between public health actors and the food and beverage industry can be challenging, especially when mandates are not aligned. Clarifying the motivations, expectations and roles of all stakeholders takes time but is important if the impact of food environment research, policy and practice is to be maximized. The articles contained in this special supplementary issue describe ongoing food environments research across Canada and fill some of the important gaps in the current body of Canadian food environments literature.

Multi-sectoral interventions for healthy growth.

PubMed

Casanovas, Ma del Carmen; Lutter, Chessa K; Mangasaryan, Nune; Mwadime, Robert; Hajeebhoy, Nemat; Aguilar, Ana Maria; Kopp, Ciro; Rico, Luis; Ibiett, Gonzalo; Andia, Doris; Onyango, Adelheid W

2013-09-01

The risk of stunted growth and development is affected by the context in which a child is born and grows. This includes such interdependent influences as the political economy, health and health care, education, society and culture, agriculture and food systems, water and sanitation, and the environment. Here, we briefly review how factors linked with the key sectors can contribute to healthy growth and reduced childhood stunting. Emphasis is placed on the role of agriculture/food security, especially family farming; education, particularly of girls and women; water, sanitation, and hygiene and their integration in stunting reduction strategies; social protection including cash transfers, bearing in mind that success in this regard is linked to reducing the gap between rich and poor; economic investment in stunting reduction including the work with the for-profit commercial sector balancing risks linked to marketing foods that can displace affordable and more sustainable alternatives; health with emphasis on implementing comprehensive and effective health care interventions and building the capacity of health care providers. We complete the review with examples of national and subnational multi-sectoral interventions that illustrate how critical it is for sectors to work together to reduce stunting. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Freight transportation improvements and the economy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-06-01

This report summarizes the results of the Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) work on the economic benefits of transportation improvements using macroeconomic, microeconomic, and general equilibrium approaches. Detailed information is provi...

Using wavelets to decompose the time frequency effects of monetary policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Azevedo, Nuno; Soares, Maria Joana

2008-05-01

Central banks have different objectives in the short and long run. Governments operate simultaneously at different timescales. Many economic processes are the result of the actions of several agents, who have different term objectives. Therefore, a macroeconomic time series is a combination of components operating on different frequencies. Several questions about economic time series are connected to the understanding of the behavior of key variables at different frequencies over time, but this type of information is difficult to uncover using pure time-domain or pure frequency-domain methods. To our knowledge, for the first time in an economic setup, we use cross-wavelet tools to show that the relation between monetary policy variables and macroeconomic variables has changed and evolved with time. These changes are not homogeneous across the different frequencies.

Measuring complexity in Brazilian economic crises.

PubMed

Mortoza, Letícia P D; Piqueira, José R C

2017-01-01

Capital flows are responsible for a strong influence on the foreign exchange rates and stock prices macroeconomic parameters. In volatile economies, capital flows can change due to several types of social, political and economic events, provoking oscillations on these parameters, which are recognized as economic crises. This work aims to investigate how these two macroeconomic variables are related with crisis events by using the traditional complex measures due to Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) and to Shiner-Davison-Landsberg (SDL), that can be applied to any temporal series. Here, Ibovespa (Bovespa Stock Exchange main Index) and the "dollar-real" parity are the background for calculating the LMC and SDL complexity measures. By analyzing the temporal evolution of these measures, it is shown that they might be related to important events that occurred in the Brazilian economy.

ETA-MACRO: A user's guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manne, A. S.

1981-02-01

The ETA-MACRO model is designed to estimate the extent of two way linkage between the energy sector and the balance of the economy. It represents a merger between ETA (a process analysis for energy technology assessment) together with a macroeconomic growth model providing for substitution between capital, labor, and energy inputs. The ETA-MACRO allows explicitly for: (1) energy economy interactions; (2) cost effective conservation; (3) interfuel substitution, and (4) new supply technologies, each with its own difficulties and uncertainties on dates and rates of introduction. This user's guide includes an overview of the model, an illustrative application to long term US energy projections, and technical descriptions of the macro and ETA submodels. It also includes an analysis of how market penetration rates may be related to the profitability of new technologies. Finally, the appendices provide a detailed guide to the computer implementation.

What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited.

PubMed

Hartwig, Jochen

2008-05-01

The share of health care expenditure in GDP rises rapidly in virtually all OECD countries, causing increasing concern among politicians and the general public. Yet, economists have to date failed to reach an agreement on what the main determinants of this development are. This paper revisits Baumol's [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415-426] model of 'unbalanced growth', showing that the latter offers a ready explanation for the observed inexorable rise in health care expenditure. The main implication of Baumol's model in this context is that health care expenditure is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. This hypothesis is tested empirically using data from a panel of 19 OECD countries. Our tests yield robust evidence in favor of Baumol's theory.

Urban cross-sector actions for carbon mitigation with local health co-benefits in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswami, Anu; Tong, Kangkang; Fang, Andrew; Lal, Raj M.; Nagpure, Ajay Singh; Li, Yang; Yu, Huajun; Jiang, Daqian; Russell, Armistead G.; Shi, Lei; Chertow, Marian; Wang, Yangjun; Wang, Shuxiao

2017-10-01

Cities offer unique strategies to reduce fossil fuel use through the exchange of energy and materials across homes, businesses, infrastructure and industries co-located in urban areas. However, the large-scale impact of such strategies has not been quantified. Using new models and data sets representing 637 Chinese cities, we find that such cross-sectoral strategies--enabled by compact urban design and circular economy policies--contribute an additional 15%-36% to national CO2 mitigation, compared to conventional single-sector strategies. As a co-benefit, ~25,500 to ~57,500 deaths annually are avoided from air pollution reduction. The benefits are highly variable across cities, ranging from <1%-37% for CO2 emission reduction and <1%-47% for avoided premature deaths. These results, using multi-scale, multi-sector physical systems modelling, identify cities with high carbon and health co-benefit potential and show that urban-industrial symbiosis is a significant carbon mitigation strategy, achievable with a combination of existing and advanced technologies in diverse city types.

Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup.

PubMed

Hommes, Cars; Makarewicz, Tomasz; Massaro, Domenico; Smits, Tom

2017-01-01

In order to understand heterogeneous behavior amongst agents, empirical data from Learning-to-Forecast (LtF) experiments can be used to construct learning models. This paper follows up on Assenza et al. (2013) by using a Genetic Algorithms (GA) model to replicate the results from their LtF experiment. In this GA model, individuals optimize an adaptive, a trend following and an anchor coefficient in a population of general prediction heuristics. We replicate experimental treatments in a New-Keynesian environment with increasing complexity and use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well the model explains the experimental data. We find that the evolutionary learning model is able to replicate the three different types of behavior, i.e. convergence to steady state, stable oscillations and dampened oscillations in the treatments using one GA model. Heterogeneous behavior can thus be explained by an adaptive, anchor and trend extrapolating component and the GA model can be used to explain heterogeneous behavior in LtF experiments with different types of complexity.

Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

PubMed

Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

2014-04-16

Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total knee arthroplasty were lower. Economic downturns in the 2000s did not substantially influence the national growth trends for hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States. These latest updated projections provide a basis for surgeons, hospitals, payers, and policy makers to plan for the future demand for total joint replacement surgery.

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Assets, Leverage and Trust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozendaal, Jeroen C.; Malevergne, Yannick; Sornette, Didier

A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of economic growth, and how credit may be associated with both economic performance and confidence. Our first notable finding is the mechanism of reward/penalty associated with patience, as quantified by the return on assets. In regular economies where the EBITA/Assets ratio is larger than the cost of debt, starting with a trust higher than leverage results in the highest long-term return on assets (which can be seen as a proxy for economic growth). Therefore, patient economies that first build trust and then increase leverage are positively rewarded. Our second main finding concerns a recommendation for the reaction of a central bank to an external shock that affects negatively the economic growth. We find that late policy intervention in the model economy results in the highest long-term return on assets. However, this comes at the cost of suffering longer from the crisis until the intervention occurs. The phenomenon that late intervention is most effective to attain a high long-term return on assets can be ascribed to the fact that postponing intervention allows trust to increase first, and it is most effective to intervene when trust is high. These results are derived from two fundamental assumptions underlying our model: (a) trust tends to increase when it is above leverage; (b) economic agents learn optimally to adjust debt for a given level of trust and amount of assets. Using a Markov Switching Model for the EBITA/Assets ratio, we have successfully calibrated our model to the empirical data of the return on equity of the EURO STOXX 50 for the time period 2000-2013. We find that dynamics of leverage and trust can be highly nonmonotonous with curved trajectories, as a result of the nonlinear coupling between the variables. This has an important implication for policy makers, suggesting that simple linear forecasting can be deceiving in some regimes and may lead to inappropriate policy decisions.

10 CFR 626.7 - Royalty transfer and exchange.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) of this section, DOE determines there is a high probability that the cost to the Government can be... supply or refining capability, logistical problems for moving petroleum products, macroeconomic factors...

Misery Loves Company? A Meta-Regression Examining Aggregate Unemployment Rates and the Unemployment-Mortality Association

PubMed Central

Roelfs, David J.; Shor, Eran; Blank, Aharon; Schwartz, Joseph E.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE Individual-level unemployment has been consistently linked to poor health and higher mortality, but some scholars have suggested that the negative effect of job loss may be lower during times and in places where aggregate unemployment rates are high. We review three logics associated with this moderation hypothesis: health selection, social isolation, and unemployment stigma. We then test whether aggregate unemployment rates moderate the individual-level association between unemployment and all-cause mortality. METHODS We use 6 meta-regression models (each utilizing a different measure of the aggregate unemployment rate) based on 62 relative all-cause mortality risk estimates from 36 studies (from 15 nations). RESULTS We find that the magnitude of the individual-level unemployment-mortality association is approximately the same during periods of high and low aggregate-level unemployment. Model coefficients (exponentiated) were 1.01 for the crude unemployment rate (p = 0.27), 0.94 for the change in unemployment rate from the previous year (p = 0.46), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the 5-year running average (p = 0.87), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the 10-year running average (p = 0.73), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the overall average (measured as a continuous variable; p = 0.61), and showed no variation across unemployment levels when the deviation of the unemployment rate from the overall average was measured categorically. Heterogeneity between studies was significant (p < .001), supporting the use of the random effects model. CONCLUSIONS We found no strong evidence to suggest that unemployment experiences change when macro-economic conditions change. Efforts to ameliorate the negative social and economic consequences of unemployment should continue to focus on the individual and should be maintained regardless of periodic changes in macro-economic conditions. PMID:25795225

Misery loves company? A meta-regression examining aggregate unemployment rates and the unemployment-mortality association.

PubMed

Roelfs, David J; Shor, Eran; Blank, Aharon; Schwartz, Joseph E

2015-05-01

Individual-level unemployment has been consistently linked to poor health and higher mortality, but some scholars have suggested that the negative effect of job loss may be lower during times and in places where aggregate unemployment rates are high. We review three logics associated with this moderation hypothesis: health selection, social isolation, and unemployment stigma. We then test whether aggregate unemployment rates moderate the individual-level association between unemployment and all-cause mortality. We use six meta-regression models (each using a different measure of the aggregate unemployment rate) based on 62 relative all-cause mortality risk estimates from 36 studies (from 15 nations). We find that the magnitude of the individual-level unemployment-mortality association is approximately the same during periods of high and low aggregate-level unemployment. Model coefficients (exponentiated) were 1.01 for the crude unemployment rate (P = .27), 0.94 for the change in unemployment rate from the previous year (P = .46), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the 5-year running average (P = .87), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the 10-year running average (P = .73), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the overall average (measured as a continuous variable; P = .61), and showed no variation across unemployment levels when the deviation of the unemployment rate from the overall average was measured categorically. Heterogeneity between studies was significant (P < .001), supporting the use of the random effects model. We found no strong evidence to suggest that unemployment experiences change when macroeconomic conditions change. Efforts to ameliorate the negative social and economic consequences of unemployment should continue to focus on the individual and should be maintained regardless of periodic changes in macroeconomic conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional Development Partnerships in Sweden: A Way for Higher Education Institutions to Develop their Role in the Processes of Regional Governance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Christine

2006-01-01

This paper focuses on the multi-sectoral regional growth partnerships established as part of the new Swedish regional policy. It asks the question whether participation in these partnerships marks a closer involvement on the part of universities in the processes of regional governance. This paper argues that at least part of the explanation for…

Material Identification Algorithm

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

realistic scenes composed of uneven ground, trees, and reflecting objects. The simulation includes effects of ionospheric dispersion on the radar pulses...effects of ionospheric dispersion on the SAR returns. Summary - Part 1I The objective of this effort was to perform numerical simulations for large...study," Radiology, vol. 216, pp. 279-283, 2000. [9] M. Xu, G. Ku, and L. V. Wang, "Microwave-induced thermoacous- tic tomography using multi-sector

The feasibility of multisectoral policy options aimed at reducing trans fats and encouraging its replacement with healthier oils in India.

PubMed

Downs, Shauna M; Thow, Anne-Marie; Ghosh-Jerath, Suparna; Leeder, Stephen R

2015-05-01

The World Health Organization recommends replacement of trans fat with polyunsaturated fat to reduce cardiovascular disease risk. Although several high-income countries have been successful in reducing trans fat in the food supply, low- and middle-income countries such as India may face additional contextual challenges such as the large informal sector, lack of consumer awareness, less enforcement capacity and low availability and affordability of healthier unsaturated fats. The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of multisectoral policy options aimed at supporting trans fat reduction and its replacement with polyunsaturated fats in India. Multisectoral policy options examined in this study were identified using food supply chain analysis. Semi-structured interviews (n = 17) were conducted with key informants from agriculture, trade, finance, retail, industry, food standards, non-governmental organizations and the health professions to gain their views on the feasibility and acceptability of the policy options. Purposive sampling was used to identify key informants. Data were coded and organized based on key themes. There was support for policies aimed at improving the quality of seeds, supporting farmer co-operatives and developing affordable farming equipment suited to smallholders to improve the production of healthier oils. Increasing the role of the private sector to improve links among producers, processors and retailers may help to streamline the fats supply chain in India. Blending healthier oils with oils high in saturated fat, which are currently readily available, could help to improve the quality of fat in the short term. Improving consumer awareness through mass media campaigns and improved labelling may help increase consumer demand for healthier products. Reorienting agricultural policies to support production of healthier oils will help increase their uptake by industry. Policy coherence across sectors will be critical to reduce trans fat intakes and could be improved by increasing engagement among researchers, the private sector and government. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Strengthening health disaster risk management in Africa: multi-sectoral and people-centred approaches are required in the post-Hyogo Framework of Action era.

PubMed

Olu, Olushayo; Usman, Abdulmumini; Manga, Lucien; Anyangwe, Stella; Kalambay, Kalula; Nsenga, Ngoy; Woldetsadik, Solomon; Hampton, Craig; Nguessan, Francois; Benson, Angela

2016-08-02

In November 2012, the 62nd session of the Regional Committee for Africa adopted a comprehensive 10-year regional strategy for health disaster risk management (DRM). This was intended to operationalize the World Health Organization's core commitments to health DRM and the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 in the health sectors of the 47 African member states. This study reported the formative evaluation of the strategy, including evaluation of the progress in achieving nine targets (expected to be achieved incrementally by 2014, 2017, and 2022). We proposed recommendations for accelerating the strategy's implementation within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. This study used a mixed methods design. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted along with a review of available reports and information on the implementation of the strategy. A review meeting to discuss and finalize the study findings was also conducted. In total, 58 % of the countries assessed had established DRM coordination units within their Ministry of Health (MOH). Most had dedicated MOH DRM staff (88 %) and national-level DRM committees (71 %). Only 14 (58 %) of the countries had health DRM subcommittees using a multi-sectoral disaster risk reduction platform. Less than 40 % had conducted surveys such as disaster risk analysis, hospital safety index, and mapping of health resources availability. Key challenges in implementing the strategy were inadequate political will and commitment resulting in poor funding for health DRM, weak health systems, and a dearth of scientific evidence on mainstreaming DRM and disaster risk reduction in longer-term health system development programs. Implementation of the strategy was behind anticipated targets despite some positive outcomes, such as an increase in the number of countries with health DRM incorporated in their national health legislation, MOH DRM units, and functional health sub-committees within national DRM committees. Health system-based, multi-sectoral, and people-centred approaches are proposed to accelerate implementation of the strategy in the post-Hyogo Framework of Action era.

Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries

PubMed Central

Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav

2015-01-01

The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed. PMID:26001083

Nowcasting unemployment rates with Google searches: evidence from the Visegrad Group countries.

PubMed

Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav

2015-01-01

The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group--the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed.

Big Events in Greece and HIV Infection Among People Who Inject Drugs

PubMed Central

Nikolopoulos, Georgios K.; Sypsa, Vana; Bonovas, Stefanos; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Malliori-Minerva, Melpomeni; Hatzakis, Angelos; Friedman, Samuel R.

2015-01-01

Big Events are processes like macroeconomic transitions that have lowered social well-being in various settings in the past. Greece has been hit by the global crisis and experienced an HIV outbreak among people who inject drugs. Since the crisis began (2008), Greece has seen population displacement, inter-communal violence, cuts in governmental expenditures, and social movements. These may have affected normative regulation, networks, and behaviors. However, most pathways to risk remain unknown or unmeasured. We use what is known and unknown about the Greek HIV outbreak to suggest modifications in Big Events models and the need for additional research. PMID:25723309

Modelling supply networks and business cycles as unstable transport phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk

2003-07-01

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called 'bull-whip effect'). That is, small variations in the consumption rate can cause large variations in the production rate of companies generating the requested product. Interestingly, the resulting oscillations have characteristic frequencies which are considerably lower than the variations in the consumption rate. This suggests that instabilities of supply chains may be the reason for the existence of business cycles. At the same time, we establish some links to queueing theory and between micro- and macroeconomics.

Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy.

PubMed

Romero, Pedro P; López, Ricardo; Jiménez, Carlos

2018-01-01

This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results.

Measuring complexity in Brazilian economic crises

PubMed Central

Mortoza, Letícia P. D.; Piqueira, José R. C.

2017-01-01

Capital flows are responsible for a strong influence on the foreign exchange rates and stock prices macroeconomic parameters. In volatile economies, capital flows can change due to several types of social, political and economic events, provoking oscillations on these parameters, which are recognized as economic crises. This work aims to investigate how these two macroeconomic variables are related with crisis events by using the traditional complex measures due to Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) and to Shiner-Davison-Landsberg (SDL), that can be applied to any temporal series. Here, Ibovespa (Bovespa Stock Exchange main Index) and the “dollar-real” parity are the background for calculating the LMC and SDL complexity measures. By analyzing the temporal evolution of these measures, it is shown that they might be related to important events that occurred in the Brazilian economy. PMID:28301506

Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy

PubMed Central

López, Ricardo; Jiménez, Carlos

2018-01-01

This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results. PMID:29293567

The macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases.

PubMed

Ko, George J; Brown, Melissa M; Brown, Gary C

2005-06-01

The purpose of this review is to examine the macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases. Approximately 6% of the Medicare Part B expenditure was spent on ocular diseases and 0.3% on vitreoretinal interventions. Among the 17,674 practicing ophthalmologists, 1849 (10.5%) designated themselves as specializing in the treatment of vitreoretinal diseases. Ophthalmologists receive 38% of their payments from Medicare; 13% of their total income were capitated. Age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy, two conditions commonly treated by vitreoretinal specialists, are projected to affect more than 10 million people in 2020. Vitreoretinal interventions account for only a small portion of the total health care expenditure. The rising demand from the aging population and health care costs will continue to put pressure on all physicians and society. The changes in the sources of payment and managed care will directly affect the economics of a physician's practice.

Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

PubMed

da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

Mortality of children under five and prevalence of newborn congenital anomalies in relation to macroeconomic and socioeconomic factors in Latvia.

PubMed

Ebela, Inguna; Zile, Irisa; Zakis, Aleksandrs; Folkmanis, Valdis; Rumba-Rozenfelde, Ingrida

2011-01-01

Mortality of infants and children younger than 5 years is a globally recognized and broad national welfare indicator. Scientific literature has data on the correlation of mortality indicators with macroeconomic indicators. It is important to study the associations between prevalence and mortality indicators and socioeconomic factors, since deaths from congenital anomalies account for approximately 25%-30% of all deaths in infancy. The aim of the study was to analyze the overall trend in mortality of infants and young children aged 0 to 4 years in relation to macroeconomic factors in Latvia and prevalence of congenital anomalies in newborns in relation to socioeconomic factors. The Newborns' Register and Causes of Death Register were used as data sources; data on specific socioeconomic factors were retrieved from the Central Statistics Office. The results of the study show a strong correlation between mortality in children younger than 5 years and gross domestic product, as well as health budget in LVL per capita and the national unemployment level. The average decrease in infant mortality from congenital anomalies in Latvia was found to be 6.8 cases per 100,000 live births. There is a strong correlation between child mortality and socioeconomic situation in the country. There is a need to analyze the data on child mortality in a transnational context on a regular basis and studying the correlations between child mortality indicators and socioeconomic indicators and health care management parameters.

Causality and Cointegration Analysis between Macroeconomic Variables and the Bovespa

PubMed Central

da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%. PMID:24587019

Recursive utility in a Markov environment with stochastic growth

PubMed Central

Hansen, Lars Peter; Scheinkman, José A.

2012-01-01

Recursive utility models that feature investor concerns about the intertemporal composition of risk are used extensively in applied research in macroeconomics and asset pricing. These models represent preferences as the solution to a nonlinear forward-looking difference equation with a terminal condition. In this paper we study infinite-horizon specifications of this difference equation in the context of a Markov environment. We establish a connection between the solution to this equation and to an arguably simpler Perron–Frobenius eigenvalue equation of the type that occurs in the study of large deviations for Markov processes. By exploiting this connection, we establish existence and uniqueness results. Moreover, we explore a substantive link between large deviation bounds for tail events for stochastic consumption growth and preferences induced by recursive utility. PMID:22778428

[Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies in Mexico].

PubMed

Valencia-Mendoza, Atanacio; Sánchez-González, Gilberto; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; Bertozzi, Stefano M

2009-01-01

Generate cost-effectiveness information to allow policy makers optimize breast cancer (BC) policy in Mexico. We constructed a Markov model that incorporates four interrelated processes of the disease: the natural history; detection using mammography; treatment; and other competing-causes mortality, according to which 13 different strategies were modeled. Strategies (starting age, % of coverage, frequency in years)= (48, 25, 2), (40, 50, 2) and (40, 50, 1) constituted the optimal method for expanding the BC program, yielding 75.3, 116.4 and 171.1 thousand pesos per life-year saved, respectively. The strategies included in the optimal method for expanding the program produce a cost per life-year saved of less than two times the GNP per capita and hence are cost-effective according to WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health criteria.

Recursive utility in a Markov environment with stochastic growth.

PubMed

Hansen, Lars Peter; Scheinkman, José A

2012-07-24

Recursive utility models that feature investor concerns about the intertemporal composition of risk are used extensively in applied research in macroeconomics and asset pricing. These models represent preferences as the solution to a nonlinear forward-looking difference equation with a terminal condition. In this paper we study infinite-horizon specifications of this difference equation in the context of a Markov environment. We establish a connection between the solution to this equation and to an arguably simpler Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue equation of the type that occurs in the study of large deviations for Markov processes. By exploiting this connection, we establish existence and uniqueness results. Moreover, we explore a substantive link between large deviation bounds for tail events for stochastic consumption growth and preferences induced by recursive utility.