Contamination Event Detection with Multivariate Time-Series Data in Agricultural Water Monitoring †

PubMed Central

Mao, Yingchi; Qi, Hai; Ping, Ping; Li, Xiaofang

2017-01-01

Time series data of multiple water quality parameters are obtained from the water sensor networks deployed in the agricultural water supply network. The accurate and efficient detection and warning of contamination events to prevent pollution from spreading is one of the most important issues when pollution occurs. In order to comprehensively reduce the event detection deviation, a spatial–temporal-based event detection approach with multivariate time-series data for water quality monitoring (M-STED) was proposed. The M-STED approach includes three parts. The first part is that M-STED adopts a Rule K algorithm to select backbone nodes as the nodes in the CDS, and forward the sensed data of multiple water parameters. The second part is to determine the state of each backbone node with back propagation neural network models and the sequential Bayesian analysis in the current timestamp. The third part is to establish a spatial model with Bayesian networks to estimate the state of the backbones in the next timestamp and trace the “outlier” node to its neighborhoods to detect a contamination event. The experimental results indicate that the average detection rate is more than 80% with M-STED and the false detection rate is lower than 9%, respectively. The M-STED approach can improve the rate of detection by about 40% and reduce the false alarm rate by about 45%, compared with the event detection with a single water parameter algorithm, S-STED. Moreover, the proposed M-STED can exhibit better performance in terms of detection delay and scalability. PMID:29207535

Impact of biliary stent-related events in patients diagnosed with advanced pancreatobiliary tumours receiving palliative chemotherapy.

PubMed

Lamarca, Angela; Rigby, Christina; McNamara, Mairéad G; Hubner, Richard A; Valle, Juan W

2016-07-14

To determine the impact (morbidity/mortality) of biliary stent-related events (SRE) (cholangitis or stent obstruction) in chemotherapy-treated pancreatico-biliary patients. All consecutive patients with advanced pancreatobiliary cancer and a biliary stent in-situ prior to starting palliative chemotherapy were identified retrospectively from local electronic case-note records (Jan 13 to Jan 15). The primary end-point was SRE rate and the time-to-SRE (defined as time from first stenting before chemotherapy to date of SRE). Progression-free survival and overall survival were measured from the time of starting chemotherapy. Kaplan-Meier, Cox and Fine-Gray regression (univariate and multivariable) analyses were employed, as appropriate. For the analysis of time-to-SRE, death was considered as a competing event. Ninety-six out of 693 screened patients were eligible; 89% had a metal stent (the remainder were plastic). The median time of follow-up was 9.6 mo (range 2.2 to 26.4). Forty-one patients (43%) developed a SRE during follow-up [cholangitis (39%), stent obstruction (29%), both (32%)]. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the SRE group and no-SRE groups. Recorded SRE-consequences were: none (37%), chemotherapy delay (24%), discontinuation (17%) and death (22%). The median time-to-SRE was 4.4 mo (95%CI: 3.6-5.5). Patients with severe comorbidities (P < 0.001) and patients with ≥ 2 baseline stents/biliary procedures [HR = 2.3 (95%CI: 1.2-4.44), P = 0.010] had a shorter time-to-SRE on multivariable analysis. Stage was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (P = 0.029) in the multivariable analysis adjusted for primary tumour site, performance status and development of SRE (SRE group vs no-SRE group). SREs are common and impact on patient's morbidity. Our results highlight the need for prospective studies exploring the role of prophylactic strategies to prevent/delay SREs.

Impact of biliary stent-related events in patients diagnosed with advanced pancreatobiliary tumours receiving palliative chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Lamarca, Angela; Rigby, Christina; McNamara, Mairéad G; Hubner, Richard A; Valle, Juan W

2016-01-01

AIM: To determine the impact (morbidity/mortality) of biliary stent-related events (SRE) (cholangitis or stent obstruction) in chemotherapy-treated pancreatico-biliary patients. METHODS: All consecutive patients with advanced pancreatobiliary cancer and a biliary stent in-situ prior to starting palliative chemotherapy were identified retrospectively from local electronic case-note records (Jan 13 to Jan 15). The primary end-point was SRE rate and the time-to-SRE (defined as time from first stenting before chemotherapy to date of SRE). Progression-free survival and overall survival were measured from the time of starting chemotherapy. Kaplan-Meier, Cox and Fine-Gray regression (univariate and multivariable) analyses were employed, as appropriate. For the analysis of time-to-SRE, death was considered as a competing event. RESULTS: Ninety-six out of 693 screened patients were eligible; 89% had a metal stent (the remainder were plastic). The median time of follow-up was 9.6 mo (range 2.2 to 26.4). Forty-one patients (43%) developed a SRE during follow-up [cholangitis (39%), stent obstruction (29%), both (32%)]. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the SRE group and no-SRE groups. Recorded SRE-consequences were: none (37%), chemotherapy delay (24%), discontinuation (17%) and death (22%). The median time-to-SRE was 4.4 mo (95%CI: 3.6-5.5). Patients with severe comorbidities (P < 0.001) and patients with ≥ 2 baseline stents/biliary procedures [HR = 2.3 (95%CI: 1.2-4.44), P = 0.010] had a shorter time-to-SRE on multivariable analysis. Stage was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (P = 0.029) in the multivariable analysis adjusted for primary tumour site, performance status and development of SRE (SRE group vs no-SRE group). CONCLUSION: SREs are common and impact on patient’s morbidity. Our results highlight the need for prospective studies exploring the role of prophylactic strategies to prevent/delay SREs. PMID:27468198

Stressful Life Events Around the Time of Unplanned Pregnancy and Women's Health: Exploratory Findings from a National Sample.

PubMed

Hall, Kelli Stidham; Dalton, Vanessa K; Zochowski, Melissa; Johnson, Timothy R B; Harris, Lisa H

2017-06-01

Objective Little is known about how women's social context of unintended pregnancy, particularly adverse social circumstances, relates to their general health and wellbeing. We explored associations between stressful life events around the time of unintended pregnancy and physical and mental health. Methods Data are drawn from a national probability study of 1078 U.S. women aged 18-55. Our internet-based survey measured 14 different stressful life events occurring at the time of unintended pregnancy (operationalized as an additive index score), chronic disease and mental health conditions, and current health and wellbeing symptoms (standardized perceived health, depression, stress, and discrimination scales). Multivariable regression modeled relationships between stressful life events and health conditions/symptoms while controlling for sociodemographic and reproductive covariates. Results Among ever-pregnant women (N = 695), stressful life events were associated with all adverse health outcomes/symptoms in unadjusted analyses. In multivariable models, higher stressful life event scores were positively associated with chronic disease (aOR 1.21, CI 1.03-1.41) and mental health (aOR 1.42, CI 1.23-1.64) conditions, higher depression (B 0.37, CI 0.19-0.55), stress (B 0.32, CI 0.22-0.42), and discrimination (B 0.74, CI 0.45-1.04) scores, and negatively associated with ≥ very good perceived health (aOR 0.84, CI 0.73-0.97). Stressful life event effects were strongest for emotional and partner-related sub-scores. Conclusion Women with adverse social circumstances surrounding their unintended pregnancy experienced poorer health. Findings suggest that reproductive health should be considered in the broader context of women's health and wellbeing and have implications for integrated models of care that address women's family planning needs, mental and physical health, and social environments.

Comparing and combining biomarkers as principle surrogates for time-to-event clinical endpoints.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Gilbert, Peter B

2015-02-10

Principal surrogate endpoints are useful as targets for phase I and II trials. In many recent trials, multiple post-randomization biomarkers are measured. However, few statistical methods exist for comparison of or combination of biomarkers as principal surrogates, and none of these methods to our knowledge utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information. We propose a Weibull model extension of the semi-parametric estimated maximum likelihood method that allows for the inclusion of multiple biomarkers in the same risk model as multivariate candidate principal surrogates. We propose several methods for comparing candidate principal surrogates and evaluating multivariate principal surrogates. These include the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent true and false positive fraction, the time-dependent and the integrated standardized total gain, and the cumulative distribution function of the risk difference. We illustrate the operating characteristics of our proposed methods in simulations and outline how these statistics can be used to evaluate and compare candidate principal surrogates. We use these methods to investigate candidate surrogates in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methodological challenges to multivariate syndromic surveillance: a case study using Swiss animal health data.

PubMed

Vial, Flavie; Wei, Wei; Held, Leonhard

2016-12-20

In an era of ubiquitous electronic collection of animal health data, multivariate surveillance systems (which concurrently monitor several data streams) should have a greater probability of detecting disease events than univariate systems. However, despite their limitations, univariate aberration detection algorithms are used in most active syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems because of their ease of application and interpretation. On the other hand, a stochastic modelling-based approach to multivariate surveillance offers more flexibility, allowing for the retention of historical outbreaks, for overdispersion and for non-stationarity. While such methods are not new, they are yet to be applied to animal health surveillance data. We applied an example of such stochastic model, Held and colleagues' two-component model, to two multivariate animal health datasets from Switzerland. In our first application, multivariate time series of the number of laboratories test requests were derived from Swiss animal diagnostic laboratories. We compare the performance of the two-component model to parallel monitoring using an improved Farrington algorithm and found both methods yield a satisfactorily low false alarm rate. However, the calibration test of the two-component model on the one-step ahead predictions proved satisfactory, making such an approach suitable for outbreak prediction. In our second application, the two-component model was applied to the multivariate time series of the number of cattle abortions and the number of test requests for bovine viral diarrhea (a disease that often results in abortions). We found that there is a two days lagged effect from the number of abortions to the number of test requests. We further compared the joint modelling and univariate modelling of the number of laboratory test requests time series. The joint modelling approach showed evidence of superiority in terms of forecasting abilities. Stochastic modelling approaches offer the potential to address more realistic surveillance scenarios through, for example, the inclusion of times series specific parameters, or of covariates known to have an impact on syndrome counts. Nevertheless, many methodological challenges to multivariate surveillance of animal SyS data still remain. Deciding on the amount of corroboration among data streams that is required to escalate into an alert is not a trivial task given the sparse data on the events under consideration (e.g. disease outbreaks).

FABP4 and Cardiovascular Events in Peripheral Arterial Disease.

PubMed

Höbaus, Clemens; Herz, Carsten Thilo; Pesau, Gerfried; Wrba, Thomas; Koppensteiner, Renate; Schernthaner, Gerit-Holger

2018-05-01

Fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4) is a possible biomarker of atherosclerosis. We evaluated FABP4 levels, for the first time, in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) and the possible association between baseline FABP4 levels and cardiovascular events over time. Patients (n = 327; mean age 69 ± 10 years) with stable PAD were enrolled in this study. Serum FABP4 was measured by bead-based multiplex assay. Cardiovascular events were analyzed by FABP4 tertiles using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses after 5 years. Serum FABP4 levels showed a significant association with the classical 3-point major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) end point (including death, nonlethal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke) in patients with PAD ( P = .038). A standard deviation increase of FABP4 resulted in a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.33 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.03-1.71) for MACE. This association increased (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.03-1.71) after multivariable adjustment ( P = .020). Additionally, in multivariable linear regression analysis, FABP4 was linked to estimated glomerular filtration rate ( P < .001), gender ( P = .005), fasting triglycerides ( P = .048), and body mass index ( P < .001). Circulating FABP4 may be a useful additional biomarker to evaluate patients with stable PAD at risk of major cardiovascular complications.

Using Statistical Process Control for detecting anomalies in multivariate spatiotemporal Earth Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flach, Milan; Mahecha, Miguel; Gans, Fabian; Rodner, Erik; Bodesheim, Paul; Guanche-Garcia, Yanira; Brenning, Alexander; Denzler, Joachim; Reichstein, Markus

2016-04-01

The number of available Earth observations (EOs) is currently substantially increasing. Detecting anomalous patterns in these multivariate time series is an important step in identifying changes in the underlying dynamical system. Likewise, data quality issues might result in anomalous multivariate data constellations and have to be identified before corrupting subsequent analyses. In industrial application a common strategy is to monitor production chains with several sensors coupled to some statistical process control (SPC) algorithm. The basic idea is to raise an alarm when these sensor data depict some anomalous pattern according to the SPC, i.e. the production chain is considered 'out of control'. In fact, the industrial applications are conceptually similar to the on-line monitoring of EOs. However, algorithms used in the context of SPC or process monitoring are rarely considered for supervising multivariate spatio-temporal Earth observations. The objective of this study is to exploit the potential and transferability of SPC concepts to Earth system applications. We compare a range of different algorithms typically applied by SPC systems and evaluate their capability to detect e.g. known extreme events in land surface processes. Specifically two main issues are addressed: (1) identifying the most suitable combination of data pre-processing and detection algorithm for a specific type of event and (2) analyzing the limits of the individual approaches with respect to the magnitude, spatio-temporal size of the event as well as the data's signal to noise ratio. Extensive artificial data sets that represent the typical properties of Earth observations are used in this study. Our results show that the majority of the algorithms used can be considered for the detection of multivariate spatiotemporal events and directly transferred to real Earth observation data as currently assembled in different projects at the European scale, e.g. http://baci-h2020.eu/index.php/ and http://earthsystemdatacube.net/. Known anomalies such as the Russian heatwave are detected as well as anomalies which are not detectable with univariate methods.

Comparing of Cox model and parametric models in analysis of effective factors on event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Kargarian-Marvasti, Sadegh; Rimaz, Shahnaz; Abolghasemi, Jamileh; Heydari, Iraj

2017-01-01

Cox proportional hazard model is the most common method for analyzing the effects of several variables on survival time. However, under certain circumstances, parametric models give more precise estimates to analyze survival data than Cox. The purpose of this study was to investigate the comparative performance of Cox and parametric models in a survival analysis of factors affecting the event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study included 371 patients with type 2 diabetes without neuropathy who were registered at Fereydunshahr diabetes clinic. Subjects were followed up for the development of neuropathy between 2006 to March 2016. To investigate the factors influencing the event time of neuropathy, significant variables in univariate model ( P < 0.20) were entered into the multivariate Cox and parametric models ( P < 0.05). In addition, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under ROC curves were used to evaluate the relative goodness of fitted model and the efficiency of each procedure, respectively. Statistical computing was performed using R software version 3.2.3 (UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS). Using Kaplan-Meier, survival time of neuropathy was computed 76.6 ± 5 months after initial diagnosis of diabetes. After multivariate analysis of Cox and parametric models, ethnicity, high-density lipoprotein and family history of diabetes were identified as predictors of event time of neuropathy ( P < 0.05). According to AIC, "log-normal" model with the lowest Akaike's was the best-fitted model among Cox and parametric models. According to the results of comparison of survival receiver operating characteristics curves, log-normal model was considered as the most efficient and fitted model.

Central sleep apnea detection from ECG-derived respiratory signals. Application of multivariate recurrence plot analysis.

PubMed

Maier, C; Dickhaus, H

2010-01-01

This study examines the suitability of recurrence plot analysis for the problem of central sleep apnea (CSA) detection and delineation from ECG-derived respiratory (EDR) signals. A parameter describing the average length of vertical line structures in recurrence plots is calculated at a time resolution of 1 s as 'instantaneous trapping time'. Threshold comparison of this parameter is used to detect ongoing CSA. In data from 26 patients (duration 208 h) we assessed sensitivity for detection of CSA and mixed apnea (MSA) events by comparing the results obtained from 8-channel Holter ECGs to the annotations (860 CSA, 480 MSA) of simultaneously registered polysomnograms. Multivariate combination of the EDR from different ECG leads improved the detection accuracy significantly. When all eight leads were considered, an average instantaneous vertical line length above 5 correctly identified 1126 of the 1340 events (sensitivity 84%) with a total number of 1881 positive detections. We conclude that recurrence plot analysis is a promising tool for detection and delineation of CSA epochs from EDR signals with high time resolution. Moreover, the approach is likewise applicable to directly measured respiratory signals.

Pharmacodynamics and effectiveness of topical nitroglycerin at lowering blood pressure during autonomic dysreflexia.

PubMed

Solinsky, R; Bunnell, A E; Linsenmeyer, T A; Svircev, J N; Engle, A; Burns, S P

2017-10-01

Secondary analysis of prospectively collected observational data assessing the safety of an autonomic dysreflexia (AD) management protocol. To estimate the time to onset of action, time to full clinical effect (sustained systolic blood pressure (SBP) <160 mm Hg) and effectiveness of nitroglycerin ointment at lowering blood pressure for patients with spinal cord injuries experiencing AD. US Veterans Affairs inpatient spinal cord injury (SCI) unit. Episodes of AD recalcitrant to nonpharmacologic interventions that were given one to two inches of 2% topical nitroglycerin ointment were recorded. Pharmacodynamics as above and predictive characteristics (through a mixed multivariate logistic regression model) were calculated. A total of 260 episodes of pharmacologically managed AD were recorded in 56 individuals. Time to onset of action for nitroglycerin ointment was 9-11 min. Time to full clinical effect was 14-20 min. Topical nitroglycerin controlled SBP <160 mm Hg in 77.3% of pharmacologically treated AD episodes with the remainder requiring additional antihypertensive medications. A multivariate logistic regression model was unable to identify statistically significant factors to predict which patients would respond to nitroglycerin ointment (odds ratios 95% confidence intervals 0.29-4.93). The adverse event rate, entirely attributed to hypotension, was 3.6% with seven of the eight events resolving with close observation alone and one episode requiring normal saline. Nitroglycerin ointment has a rapid onset of action and time to full clinical effect with high efficacy and relatively low adverse event rate for patients with SCI experiencing AD.

A multivariate cure model for left-censored and right-censored data with application to colorectal cancer screening patterns.

PubMed

Hagar, Yolanda C; Harvey, Danielle J; Beckett, Laurel A

2016-08-30

We develop a multivariate cure survival model to estimate lifetime patterns of colorectal cancer screening. Screening data cover long periods of time, with sparse observations for each person. Some events may occur before the study begins or after the study ends, so the data are both left-censored and right-censored, and some individuals are never screened (the 'cured' population). We propose a multivariate parametric cure model that can be used with left-censored and right-censored data. Our model allows for the estimation of the time to screening as well as the average number of times individuals will be screened. We calculate likelihood functions based on the observations for each subject using a distribution that accounts for within-subject correlation and estimate parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply our methods to the estimation of lifetime colorectal cancer screening behavior in the SEER-Medicare data set. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Generating functions and stability study of multivariate self-excited epidemic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saichev, A. I.; Sornette, D.

2011-09-01

We present a stability study of the class of multivariate self-excited Hawkes point processes, that can model natural and social systems, including earthquakes, epileptic seizures and the dynamics of neuron assemblies, bursts of exchanges in social communities, interactions between Internet bloggers, bank network fragility and cascading of failures, national sovereign default contagion, and so on. We present the general theory of multivariate generating functions to derive the number of events over all generations of various types that are triggered by a mother event of a given type. We obtain the stability domains of various systems, as a function of the topological structure of the mutual excitations across different event types. We find that mutual triggering tends to provide a significant extension of the stability (or subcritical) domain compared with the case where event types are decoupled, that is, when an event of a given type can only trigger events of the same type.

A lengthy look at the daily grind: time series analysis of events, mood, stress, and satisfaction.

PubMed

Fuller, Julie A; Stanton, Jeffrey M; Fisher, Gwenith G; Spitzmuller, Christiane; Russell, Steven S; Smith, Patricia C

2003-12-01

The present study investigated processes by which job stress and satisfaction unfold over time by examining the relations between daily stressful events, mood, and these variables. Using a Web-based daily survey of stressor events, perceived strain, mood, and job satisfaction completed by 14 university workers, 1,060 occasions of data were collected. Transfer function analysis, a multivariate version of time series analysis, was used to examine the data for relationships among the measured variables after factoring out the contaminating influences of serial dependency. Results revealed a contrast effect in which a stressful event associated positively with higher strain on the same day and associated negatively with strain on the following day. Perceived strain increased over the course of a semester for a majority of participants, suggesting that effects of stress build over time. Finally, the data were consistent with the notion that job satisfaction is a distal outcome that is mediated by perceived strain. ((c) 2003 APA, all rights reserved)

Bayesian inference on risk differences: an application to multivariate meta-analysis of adverse events in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Luo, Sheng; Chu, Haitao; Wei, Peng

2013-05-01

Multivariate meta-analysis is useful in combining evidence from independent studies which involve several comparisons among groups based on a single outcome. For binary outcomes, the commonly used statistical models for multivariate meta-analysis are multivariate generalized linear mixed effects models which assume risks, after some transformation, follow a multivariate normal distribution with possible correlations. In this article, we consider an alternative model for multivariate meta-analysis where the risks are modeled by the multivariate beta distribution proposed by Sarmanov (1966). This model have several attractive features compared to the conventional multivariate generalized linear mixed effects models, including simplicity of likelihood function, no need to specify a link function, and has a closed-form expression of distribution functions for study-specific risk differences. We investigate the finite sample performance of this model by simulation studies and illustrate its use with an application to multivariate meta-analysis of adverse events of tricyclic antidepressants treatment in clinical trials.

Negative Events in Childhood Predict Trajectories of Internalizing Symptoms Up to Young Adulthood: An 18-Year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Melchior, Maria; Touchette, Évelyne; Prokofyeva, Elena; Chollet, Aude; Fombonne, Eric; Elidemir, Gulizar; Galéra, Cédric

2014-01-01

Background Common negative events can precipitate the onset of internalizing symptoms. We studied whether their occurrence in childhood is associated with mental health trajectories over the course of development. Methods Using data from the TEMPO study, a French community-based cohort study of youths, we studied the association between negative events in 1991 (when participants were aged 4–16 years) and internalizing symptoms, assessed by the ASEBA family of instruments in 1991, 1999, and 2009 (n = 1503). Participants' trajectories of internalizing symptoms were estimated with semi-parametric regression methods (PROC TRAJ). Data were analyzed using multinomial regression models controlled for participants' sex, age, parental family status, socio-economic position, and parental history of depression. Results Negative childhood events were associated with an increased likelihood of concurrent internalizing symptoms which sometimes persisted into adulthood (multivariate ORs associated with > = 3 negative events respectively: high and decreasing internalizing symptoms: 5.54, 95% CI: 3.20–9.58; persistently high internalizing symptoms: 8.94, 95% CI: 2.82–28.31). Specific negative events most strongly associated with youths' persistent internalizing symptoms included: school difficulties (multivariate OR: 5.31, 95% CI: 2.24–12.59), parental stress (multivariate OR: 4.69, 95% CI: 2.02–10.87), serious illness/health problems (multivariate OR: 4.13, 95% CI: 1.76–9.70), and social isolation (multivariate OR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.00–5.08). Conclusions Common negative events can contribute to the onset of children's lasting psychological difficulties. PMID:25485875

ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN TRAUMATIC EVENTS AND SUICIDAL BEHAVIOUR IN SOUTH AFRICA

PubMed Central

Sorsdahl, Katherine; Stein, Dan J.; Williams, David R.; Nock, Matthew K.

2011-01-01

Research conducted predominantly in the developed world suggests that there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behaviour. However, there are limited data available investigating whether specific traumas are uniquely predictive of suicidal behaviour, or the extent to which traumatic events predict the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts. A national survey was conducted with 4351 adult South Africans between 2002 and 2004 as part of the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Data on trauma exposure and subsequent suicidal behaviour were collected. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and lifetime suicidal behaviour. A range of traumatic events are associated with lifetime suicide ideation and attempt; however, after controlling for all traumatic events in a multivariate model, only sexual violence (OR=4.7, CI 2.3-9.4) and having witnessed violence (OR=1.8, 1.1-2.9) remained significant predictors of life-time suicide attempts. Disaggregation of the associations between traumatic events and suicide attempts indicates that they are largely due to traumatic events predicting suicide ideation rather than to the progression from suicide ideation to attempt. This paper highlights the importance of traumatic life events in the occurrence of suicidal thoughts and behaviours and provides important information about the nature of this association. Future research is needed to better understand how and why such experiences increase the risk of suicidal outcomes. PMID:22134450

Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods alternation in China's Huai River Basin using the multivariate L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, ShaoFei; Zhang, Xiang; She, DunXian

2017-06-01

Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts and floods are considered separately, which may largely underestimate the risk of the disasters. In our study, the sudden alternation of droughts and flood events (ADFEs) between adjacent seasons is studied using the multivariate L-moments theory and the bivariate copula functions in the Huai River Basin (HRB) of China with monthly streamflow data at 32 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012. The dry and wet conditions are characterized by the standardized streamflow index (SSI) at a 3-month time scale. The results show that: (1) The summer streamflow makes the largest contribution to the annual streamflow, followed by the autumn streamflow and spring streamflow. (2) The entire study area can be divided into five homogeneous sub-regions using the multivariate regional homogeneity test. The generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and log-normal distribution (LN3) are acceptable to be the optimal marginal distributions under most conditions, and the Frank copula is more appropriate for spring-summer and summer-autumn SSI series. Continuous flood events dominate at most sites both in spring-summer and summer-autumn (with an average frequency of 13.78% and 17.06%, respectively), while continuous drought events come second (with an average frequency of 11.27% and 13.79%, respectively). Moreover, seasonal ADFEs most probably occurred near the mainstream of HRB, and drought and flood events are more likely to occur in summer-autumn than in spring-summer.

Nonparametric Bayesian Segmentation of a Multivariate Inhomogeneous Space-Time Poisson Process.

PubMed

Ding, Mingtao; He, Lihan; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2012-12-01

A nonparametric Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting time-evolving multivariate spatial point process data. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is assumed, with a logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) used to encourage piecewise-constant spatial Poisson intensities. The LSBP explicitly favors spatially contiguous segments, and infers the number of segments based on the observed data. The temporal dynamics of the segmentation and of the Poisson intensities are modeled with exponential correlation in time, implemented in the form of a first-order autoregressive model for uniformly sampled discrete data, and via a Gaussian process with an exponential kernel for general temporal sampling. We consider and compare two different inference techniques: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which has relatively high computational complexity; and an approximate and efficient variational Bayesian analysis. The model is demonstrated with a simulated example and a real example of space-time crime events in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, Colin; Widmann, Martin; Vrac, Mathieu; Maraun, Douglas; Bevaqua, Emanuele

2016-04-01

Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events C. Manning1,2, M. Widmann1, M. Vrac2, D. Maraun3, E. Bevaqua2,3 1. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, (LSCE-IPSL), Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria Compound extreme events are a combination of two or more contributing events which in themselves may not be extreme but through their joint occurrence produce an extreme impact. Compound events are noted in the latest IPCC report as an important type of extreme event that have been given little attention so far. As part of the CE:LLO project (Compound Events: muLtivariate statisticaL mOdelling) we are developing a multivariate statistical model to gain an understanding of the dependence structure of certain compound events. One focus of this project is on the interaction between drought and heat wave events. Soil moisture has both a local and non-local effect on the occurrence of heat waves where it strongly controls the latent heat flux affecting the transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere. These processes can create a feedback whereby a heat wave maybe amplified or suppressed by the soil moisture preconditioning, and vice versa, the heat wave may in turn have an effect on soil conditions. An aim of this project is to capture this dependence in order to correctly describe the joint probabilities of these conditions and the resulting probability of their compound impact. We will show an application of Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) to study the aforementioned compound event. PCCs allow in theory for the formulation of multivariate dependence structures in any dimension where the PCC is a decomposition of a multivariate distribution into a product of bivariate components modelled using copulas. A copula is a multivariate distribution function which allows one to model the dependence structure of given variables separately from the marginal behaviour. We firstly look at the structure of soil moisture drought over the entire of France using the SAFRAN dataset between 1959 and 2009. Soil moisture is represented using the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Drought characteristics are computed at grid point scale where drought conditions are identified as those with an SPEI value below -1.0. We model the multivariate dependence structure of drought events defined by certain characteristics and compute return levels of these events. We initially find that drought characteristics such as duration, mean SPEI and the maximum contiguous area to a grid point all have positive correlations, though the degree to which they are correlated can vary considerably spatially. A spatial representation of return levels then may provide insight into the areas most prone to drought conditions. As a next step, we analyse the dependence structure between soil moisture conditions preceding the onset of a heat wave and the heat wave itself.

Copula based flexible modeling of associations between clustered event times.

PubMed

Geerdens, Candida; Claeskens, Gerda; Janssen, Paul

2016-07-01

Multivariate survival data are characterized by the presence of correlation between event times within the same cluster. First, we build multi-dimensional copulas with flexible and possibly symmetric dependence structures for such data. In particular, clustered right-censored survival data are modeled using mixtures of max-infinitely divisible bivariate copulas. Second, these copulas are fit by a likelihood approach where the vast amount of copula derivatives present in the likelihood is approximated by finite differences. Third, we formulate conditions for clustered right-censored survival data under which an information criterion for model selection is either weakly consistent or consistent. Several of the familiar selection criteria are included. A set of four-dimensional data on time-to-mastitis is used to demonstrate the developed methodology.

Stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series: Power, coherence, Granger causality, and separation of evoked responses from ongoing activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yonghong; Bressler, Steven L.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Truccolo, Wilson A.; Ding, Mingzhou

2006-06-01

In this article we consider the stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series from cognitive experiments. Our starting point is the variable-signal-plus-ongoing-activity model. From this model a differentially variable component analysis strategy is developed from a Bayesian perspective to estimate event-related signals on a single trial basis. After subtracting out the event-related signal from recorded single trial time series, the residual ongoing activity is treated as a piecewise stationary stochastic process and analyzed by an adaptive multivariate autoregressive modeling strategy which yields power, coherence, and Granger causality spectra. Results from applying these methods to local field potential recordings from monkeys performing cognitive tasks are presented.

An improvement of drought monitoring through the use of a multivariate magnitude index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real-Rangel, R. A.; Alcocer-Yamanaka, V. H.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.; Ocón-Gutiérrez, A. R.

2017-12-01

In drought monitoring activities it is widely acknowledged that the severity of an event is determined in relation to monthly values of univariate indices of one or more hydrological variables. Normally, these indices are estimated using temporal windows from 1 to 12 months or more to aggregate the effects of deficits in the variable of interest. However, the use of these temporal windows may lead to a misperception of both, the drought event intensity and the timing of its occurrence. In this context, this work presents the implementation of a trivariate drought magnitude index, considering key hydrological variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture and runoff) using for this the framework of the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). Despite the popularity and simplicity of the concept of drought magnitude for standardized drought indices, its implementation in drought monitoring and early warning systems has not been reported. This approach has been tested for operational purposes in the recently launched Multivariate Drought Monitor of Mexico (MOSEMM) and the results shows that the inclusion of a Magnitude index facilitates the drought detection and, thus, improves the decision making process for emergency managers.

Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun

2018-02-01

It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

Shaping Social Activity by Incentivizing Users

PubMed Central

Farajtabar, Mehrdad; Du, Nan; Rodriguez, Manuel Gomez; Valera, Isabel; Zha, Hongyuan; Song, Le

2015-01-01

Events in an online social network can be categorized roughly into endogenous events, where users just respond to the actions of their neighbors within the network, or exogenous events, where users take actions due to drives external to the network. How much external drive should be provided to each user, such that the network activity can be steered towards a target state? In this paper, we model social events using multivariate Hawkes processes, which can capture both endogenous and exogenous event intensities, and derive a time dependent linear relation between the intensity of exogenous events and the overall network activity. Exploiting this connection, we develop a convex optimization framework for determining the required level of external drive in order for the network to reach a desired activity level. We experimented with event data gathered from Twitter, and show that our method can steer the activity of the network more accurately than alternatives. PMID:26005312

Identification of unusual events in multi-channel bridge monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omenzetter, Piotr; Brownjohn, James Mark William; Moyo, Pilate

2004-03-01

Continuously operating instrumented structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are becoming a practical alternative to replace visual inspection for assessment of condition and soundness of civil infrastructure such as bridges. However, converting large amounts of data from an SHM system into usable information is a great challenge to which special signal processing techniques must be applied. This study is devoted to identification of abrupt, anomalous and potentially onerous events in the time histories of static, hourly sampled strains recorded by a multi-sensor SHM system installed in a major bridge structure and operating continuously for a long time. Such events may result, among other causes, from sudden settlement of foundation, ground movement, excessive traffic load or failure of post-tensioning cables. A method of outlier detection in multivariate data has been applied to the problem of finding and localising sudden events in the strain data. For sharp discrimination of abrupt strain changes from slowly varying ones wavelet transform has been used. The proposed method has been successfully tested using known events recorded during construction of the bridge, and later effectively used for detection of anomalous post-construction events.

Pressure ulcer incidence and Braden subscales: Retrospective cohort analysis in general wards of a Portuguese hospital.

PubMed

Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Guedes, Jenifer Adriana Domingues; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Machado, Paulo Alexandre Puga; Melo, Elsa Maria Oliveira Pinheiro

2018-05-01

To study the influence of Braden subscales scores (at the first pressure ulcer risk assessment) on pressure ulcer incidence using a univariate and a multivariate time to event analysis. Retrospective cohort analysis of electronic health record database from adult patients admitted without pressure ulcer(s) to medical and surgical wards of a Portuguese hospital during 2012. The hazard ratio of developing a pressure ulcer during the length of inpatient stay was calculated by univariate Cox regression for each variable of interest and by multivariate Cox regression for the Braden subscales that were statistically significant. This study included a sample of 6552 participants. During the length of stay, 153 participants developed (at least) one pressure ulcer, giving a pressure ulcer incidence of 2.3%. The univariate time to event analysis showed that all Braden subscales, except "nutrition", were associated with the development of pressure ulcer. By multivariate analysis the scores for "mobility" and "activity" were independently predictive of the development of pressure ulcer(s) for all participants. (Im)"mobility" (the lack of ability to change and control body position) and (in)"activity" (the limited degree of physical activity) were the major risk factors assessed by Braden Scale for pressure ulcer development during the length of inpatient stay. Thus, the greatest efforts in managing pressure ulcer risk should be on "mobility" and "activity", independently of the total Braden Scale score. Copyright © 2018 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A statistical approach for segregating cognitive task stages from multivariate fMRI BOLD time series.

PubMed

Demanuele, Charmaine; Bähner, Florian; Plichta, Michael M; Kirsch, Peter; Tost, Heike; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Durstewitz, Daniel

2015-01-01

Multivariate pattern analysis can reveal new information from neuroimaging data to illuminate human cognition and its disturbances. Here, we develop a methodological approach, based on multivariate statistical/machine learning and time series analysis, to discern cognitive processing stages from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) time series. We apply this method to data recorded from a group of healthy adults whilst performing a virtual reality version of the delayed win-shift radial arm maze (RAM) task. This task has been frequently used to study working memory and decision making in rodents. Using linear classifiers and multivariate test statistics in conjunction with time series bootstraps, we show that different cognitive stages of the task, as defined by the experimenter, namely, the encoding/retrieval, choice, reward and delay stages, can be statistically discriminated from the BOLD time series in brain areas relevant for decision making and working memory. Discrimination of these task stages was significantly reduced during poor behavioral performance in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), but not in the primary visual cortex (V1). Experimenter-defined dissection of time series into class labels based on task structure was confirmed by an unsupervised, bottom-up approach based on Hidden Markov Models. Furthermore, we show that different groupings of recorded time points into cognitive event classes can be used to test hypotheses about the specific cognitive role of a given brain region during task execution. We found that whilst the DLPFC strongly differentiated between task stages associated with different memory loads, but not between different visual-spatial aspects, the reverse was true for V1. Our methodology illustrates how different aspects of cognitive information processing during one and the same task can be separated and attributed to specific brain regions based on information contained in multivariate patterns of voxel activity.

A coupled classification - evolutionary optimization model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

PubMed

Oliker, Nurit; Ostfeld, Avi

2014-03-15

This study describes a decision support system, alerts for contamination events in water distribution systems. The developed model comprises a weighted support vector machine (SVM) for the detection of outliers, and a following sequence analysis for the classification of contamination events. The contribution of this study is an improvement of contamination events detection ability and a multi-dimensional analysis of the data, differing from the parallel one-dimensional analysis conducted so far. The multivariate analysis examines the relationships between water quality parameters and detects changes in their mutual patterns. The weights of the SVM model accomplish two goals: blurring the difference between sizes of the two classes' data sets (as there are much more normal/regular than event time measurements), and adhering the time factor attribute by a time decay coefficient, ascribing higher importance to recent observations when classifying a time step measurement. All model parameters were determined by data driven optimization so the calibration of the model was completely autonomic. The model was trained and tested on a real water distribution system (WDS) data set with randomly simulated events superimposed on the original measurements. The model is prominent in its ability to detect events that were only partly expressed in the data (i.e., affecting only some of the measured parameters). The model showed high accuracy and better detection ability as compared to previous modeling attempts of contamination event detection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depression and poverty among African American women at risk for type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

de Groot, Mary; Auslander, Wendy; Williams, James Herbert; Sherraden, Michael; Haire-Joshu, Debra

2003-01-01

Poverty is associated with negative health outcomes, including depression. Little is known about the specific elements of poverty that contribute to depression, particularly among African American women at risk for type 2 diabetes. This study examined the relationships of economic and social resources to depression among African American women at high risk for the development of type 2 diabetes (N = 181) using the Conservation of Resources theory as a conceptual framework. Women were assessed at 3 time points in conjunction with a dietary change intervention. At baseline, 40% of women reported clinically significant depression, and 43.3% were below the poverty line. Depressed women reported fewer economic assets and greater economic distress than nondepressed peers. Multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that nonwork status, lack of home ownership, low appraisal of one's economic situation, low self-esteem, and increased life events were significantly associated with depression at baseline. Longitudinal multivariate logistic regression models indicated that income, home ownership, future economic appraisal, life events, and self-esteem predicted depression trajectories at Time 3. These results speak to the multifaceted sources of stress in the lives of poor African American women. Interventions that address the economic and social factors associated with depression are needed.

Wavelet analysis for the study of the relations among soil radon anomalies, volcanic and seismic events: the case of Mt. Etna (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrera, Elisabetta; Giammanco, Salvatore; Cannata, Andrea; Montalto, Placido

2013-04-01

From November 2009 to April 2011 soil radon activity was continuously monitored using a Barasol® probe located on the upper NE flank of Mt. Etna volcano, close either to the Piano Provenzana fault or to the NE-Rift. Seismic and volcanological data have been analyzed together with radon data. We also analyzed air and soil temperature, barometric pressure, snow and rain fall data. In order to find possible correlations among the above parameters, and hence to reveal possible anomalies in the radon time-series, we used different statistical methods: i) multivariate linear regression; ii) cross-correlation; iii) coherence analysis through wavelet transform. Multivariate regression indicated a modest influence on soil radon from environmental parameters (R2 = 0.31). When using 100-days time windows, the R2 values showed wide variations in time, reaching their maxima (~0.63-0.66) during summer. Cross-correlation analysis over 100-days moving averages showed that, similar to multivariate linear regression analysis, the summer period is characterised by the best correlation between radon data and environmental parameters. Lastly, the wavelet coherence analysis allowed a multi-resolution coherence analysis of the time series acquired. This approach allows to study the relations among different signals either in time or frequency domain. It confirmed the results of the previous methods, but also allowed to recognize correlations between radon and environmental parameters at different observation scales (e.g., radon activity changed during strong precipitations, but also during anomalous variations of soil temperature uncorrelated with seasonal fluctuations). Our work suggests that in order to make an accurate analysis of the relations among distinct signals it is necessary to use different techniques that give complementary analytical information. In particular, the wavelet analysis showed to be very effective in discriminating radon changes due to environmental influences from those correlated with impending seismic or volcanic events.

Towards a Multi-scale Montecarlo Climate Emulator for Coastal Flooding and Long-Term Coastal Change Modeling: The Beautiful Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, A.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Hegermiller, C.; Serafin, K.; Anderson, D. L.; Ruggiero, P.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Vitousek, S.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.; Gonzalez, M.; Mendez, F. J.

2016-02-01

Long-term coastal evolution and coastal flooding hazards are the result of the non-linear interaction of multiple oceanographic, hydrological, geological and meteorological forcings (e.g., astronomical tide, monthly mean sea level, large-scale storm surge, dynamic wave set-up, shoreline evolution, backshore erosion). Additionally, interannual variability and trends in storminess and sea level rise are climate drivers that must be considered. Moreover, the chronology of the hydraulic boundary conditions plays an important role since a collection of consecutive minor storm events can have more impact than the 100-yr return level event. Therefore, proper modeling of shoreline erosion, beach recovery and coastal flooding should consider the sequence of storms, the multivariate nature of the hydrodynamic forcings, and the different time scales of interest (seasonality, interannual and decadal variability). To address this `beautiful problem', we propose a hybrid approach that combines: (a) numerical hydrodynamic and morphodynamic models (SWAN for wave transformation, a shoreline change model, X-Beach for modeling infragravity waves and erosion of the backshore during extreme events and RFSM-EDA (Jamieson et al, 2012) for high resolution flooding of the coastal hinterland); (b) long-term data bases (observational and hindcast) of sea state parameters, astronomical tides and non-tidal residuals; and (c) statistical downscaling techniques, non-linear data mining, and extreme value models. The statistical downscaling approaches for multivariate variables are based on circulation patterns (Espejo et al., 2014), the chronology of the circulation patterns (Guanche et al, 2013) and the event hydrographs of multivariate extremes, resulting in a time-dependent climate emulator of hydraulic boundary conditions for coupled simulations of the coastal change and flooding models. ReferencesEspejo et al (2014) Spectral ocean wave climate variability based on circulation patterns, J Phys Oc, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0276.1 Guanche et al (2013) Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns, Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1690-3 Jamieson et al (2012) A highly efficient 2D flood model with sub-element topography, Proc. Of the Inst Civil Eng., 165(10), 581-595

Workshop on Algorithms for Time-Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protopapas, Pavlos

2012-04-01

abstract-type="normal">SummaryThis Workshop covered the four major subjects listed below in two 90-minute sessions. Each talk or tutorial allowed questions, and concluded with a discussion. Classification: Automatic classification using machine-learning methods is becoming a standard in surveys that generate large datasets. Ashish Mahabal (Caltech) reviewed various methods, and presented examples of several applications. Time-Series Modelling: Suzanne Aigrain (Oxford University) discussed autoregressive models and multivariate approaches such as Gaussian Processes. Meta-classification/mixture of expert models: Karim Pichara (Pontificia Universidad Católica, Chile) described the substantial promise which machine-learning classification methods are now showing in automatic classification, and discussed how the various methods can be combined together. Event Detection: Pavlos Protopapas (Harvard) addressed methods of fast identification of events with low signal-to-noise ratios, enlarging on the characterization and statistical issues of low signal-to-noise ratios and rare events.

Prognostic value of exercise echocardiography: validation of a new risk index combining echocardiographic, treadmill, and exercise electrocardiographic parameters.

PubMed

Mazur, Wojciech; Rivera, Jose M; Khoury, Alexander F; Basu, Abhijeet G; Perez-Verdia, Alejandro; Marks, Gary F; Chang, Su Min; Olmos, Leopoldo; Quiñones, Miguel A; Zoghbi, William A

2003-04-01

Exercise (Ex) echocardiography has been shown to have significant prognostic power, independent of other known predictors of risk from an Ex stress test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a risk index, incorporating echocardiographic and conventional Ex variables, for a more comprehensive risk stratification and identification of a very low-risk group. Two consecutive, mutually exclusive populations referred for treadmill Ex echocardiography with the Bruce protocol were investigated: hypothesis-generating (388 patients; 268 males; age 55 +/- 13 years) and hypothesis-testing (105 patients; 61 males age: 54 +/- 14 years).Cardiac events included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, late revascularization (>90 days), hospital admission for unstable angina, and admission for heart failure. Mean follow-up in the hypothesis-generating population was 3.1 years. There were 38 cardiac events. Independent predictors of events by multivariate analysis were: Ex wall motion score index (odds ratio [OR] = 2.77/Unit; P <.001); ischemic S-T depression > or = 1 mm (OR = 2.84; P =.002); and treadmill time (OR = 0.87/min; P =.037). A risk index was generated on the basis of the multivariate Cox regression model as: risk index = 1.02 (Ex wall motion score index) + 1.04 (S-T change) - 0.14 (treadmill time). The validity of this index was tested in the hypothesis-testing population. Event rates at 3 years were lowest (0%) in the lower quartile of risk index (-1.22 to -0.47), highest (29.6%) in the upper quartile (+0.66 to +2.02), and intermediate (19.2% to 15.3%) in the intermediate quartiles. The OR of the risk index for predicting cardiac events was 2.94/Unit ([95% confidence interval: 1.4 to 6.2]; P =.0043). Echocardiographic and Ex parameters are independent powerful predictors of cardiac events after treadmill stress testing. A risk index can be derived with these parameters for a more comprehensive risk stratification with Ex echocardiography.

A Civilian/Military Trauma Institute: National Trauma Coordinating Center

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

zip codes was used in “proximity to violence” analysis. Data were analyzed using SPSS (version 20.0, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL). Multivariable linear...number of adverse events and serious events was not statistically higher in one group, the incidence of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) was statistically ...subjects the lack of statistical difference on multivariate analysis may be related to an underpowered sample size. It was recommended that the

Identification of unusual events in multichannel bridge monitoring data using wavelet transform and outlier analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omenzetter, Piotr; Brownjohn, James M. W.; Moyo, Pilate

2003-08-01

Continuously operating instrumented structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are becoming a practical alternative to replace visual inspection for assessment of condition and soundness of civil infrastructure. However, converting large amount of data from an SHM system into usable information is a great challenge to which special signal processing techniques must be applied. This study is devoted to identification of abrupt, anomalous and potentially onerous events in the time histories of static, hourly sampled strains recorded by a multi-sensor SHM system installed in a major bridge structure in Singapore and operating continuously for a long time. Such events may result, among other causes, from sudden settlement of foundation, ground movement, excessive traffic load or failure of post-tensioning cables. A method of outlier detection in multivariate data has been applied to the problem of finding and localizing sudden events in the strain data. For sharp discrimination of abrupt strain changes from slowly varying ones wavelet transform has been used. The proposed method has been successfully tested using known events recorded during construction of the bridge, and later effectively used for detection of anomalous post-construction events.

Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

2016-04-01

The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

Multivariate Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events--an application to biosurveillance.

PubMed

Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

2012-09-01

This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a multivariate Bayesian approach that models multiple evidential features of every person in the population. This approach models and detects (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A contribution of this paper is that it introduces a multivariate Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has general applicability in domains where the space of known causes is incomplete. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compound effects of temperature and precipitation in making droughts more frequent in Marathwada, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Zachariah, M.; Achutarao, K. M.; Otto, F. E. L.

2017-12-01

The Marathwada region in Maharashtra, India is known to suffer significantly from agrarian crisis including farmer suicides resulting from persistent droughts. Drought monitoring in India is commonly based on univariate indicators that consider the deficiency in precipitation alone. However, droughts may involve complex interplay of multiple physical variables, necessitating an integrated, multivariate approach to analyse their behaviour. In this study, we compare the behaviour of drought characteristics in Marathwada in the recent years as compared to the first half of the twentieth century, using a joint precipitation and temperature-based Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). Drought events in the recent times are found to exhibit exceptional simultaneous anomalies of high temperature and precipitation deficits in this region, though studies on precipitation alone show that these events are within the range of historically observed variability. Additionally, we also develop multivariate copula-based Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) relationships for droughts in this region and compare their natures pre- and post- 1950. Based on multivariate return periods considering both temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as the severity and duration of droughts, it is found that droughts have become more frequent in the post-1950 period. Based on precipitation alone, such an observation cannot be made. This emphasizes the sensitivity of droughts to temperature and underlines the importance of considering compound effects of temperature and precipitation in order to avoid an underestimation of drought risk. This observation-based analysis is the first step towards investigating the causal mechanisms of droughts, their evolutions and impacts in this region, particularly those influenced by anthropogenic climate change.

Single Particle Analysis by Combined Chemical Imaging to Study Episodic Air Pollution Events in Vienna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ofner, Johannes; Eitenberger, Elisabeth; Friedbacher, Gernot; Brenner, Florian; Hutter, Herbert; Schauer, Gerhard; Kistler, Magdalena; Greilinger, Marion; Lohninger, Hans; Lendl, Bernhard; Kasper-Giebl, Anne

2017-04-01

The aerosol composition of a city like Vienna is characterized by a complex interaction of local emissions and atmospheric input on a regional and continental scale. The identification of major aerosol constituents for basic source appointment and air quality issues needs a high analytical effort. Exceptional episodic air pollution events strongly change the typical aerosol composition of a city like Vienna on a time-scale of few hours to several days. Analyzing the chemistry of particulate matter from these events is often hampered by the sampling time and related sample amount necessary to apply the full range of bulk analytical methods needed for chemical characterization. Additionally, morphological and single particle features are hardly accessible. Chemical Imaging evolved to a powerful tool for image-based chemical analysis of complex samples. As a complementary technique to bulk analytical methods, chemical imaging can address a new access to study air pollution events by obtaining major aerosol constituents with single particle features at high temporal resolutions and small sample volumes. The analysis of the chemical imaging datasets is assisted by multivariate statistics with the benefit of image-based chemical structure determination for direct aerosol source appointment. A novel approach in chemical imaging is combined chemical imaging or so-called multisensor hyperspectral imaging, involving elemental imaging (electron microscopy-based energy dispersive X-ray imaging), vibrational imaging (Raman micro-spectroscopy) and mass spectrometric imaging (Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) with subsequent combined multivariate analytics. Combined chemical imaging of precipitated aerosol particles will be demonstrated by the following examples of air pollution events in Vienna: Exceptional episodic events like the transformation of Saharan dust by the impact of the city of Vienna will be discussed and compared to samples obtained at a high alpine background site (Sonnblick Observatory, Saharan Dust Event from April 2016). Further, chemical imaging of biological aerosol constituents of an autumnal pollen breakout in Vienna, with background samples from nearby locations from November 2016 will demonstrate the advantages of the chemical imaging approach. Additionally, the chemical fingerprint of an exceptional air pollution event from a local emission source, caused by the pull down process of a building in Vienna will unravel the needs for multisensor imaging, especially the combinational access. Obtained chemical images will be correlated to bulk analytical results. Benefits of the overall methodical access by combining bulk analytics and combined chemical imaging of exceptional episodic air pollution events will be discussed.

Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis for extreme events using Archimedean copula. Case study: Lower Tunjuelo River basin (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, Wilmar

2017-04-01

By analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events we can prevent or reduce the threat and risk. Many water resources projects require joint probability distributions of random variables such as precipitation intensity and duration, which can not be independent with each other. The problem of defining a probability model for observations of several dependent variables is greatly simplified by the joint distribution in terms of their marginal by taking copulas. This document presents a general framework set frequency analysis bivariate and multivariate using Archimedean copulas for extreme events of hydroclimatological nature such as severe storms. This analysis was conducted in the lower Tunjuelo River basin in Colombia for precipitation events. The results obtained show that for a joint study of the intensity-duration-frequency, IDF curves can be obtained through copulas and thus establish more accurate and reliable information from design storms and associated risks. It shows how the use of copulas greatly simplifies the study of multivariate distributions that introduce the concept of joint return period used to represent the needs of hydrological designs properly in frequency analysis.

Outcome and risk factors assessment for adverse events in advanced esophageal cancer patients after self-expanding metal stents placement.

PubMed

Rodrigues-Pinto, E; Pereira, P; Coelho, R; Andrade, P; Ribeiro, A; Lopes, S; Moutinho-Ribeiro, P; Macedo, G

2017-02-01

Self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) are the treatment of choice for advanced esophageal cancers. Literature is scarce on risk factors predictors for adverse events after SEMS placement. Assess risk factors for adverse events after SEMS placement in advanced esophageal cancer and evaluate survival after SEMS placement. Cross-sectional study of patients with advanced esophageal cancer referred for SEMS placement, during a period of 3 years. Ninety-seven patients with advanced esophageal cancer placed SEMS. Adverse events were more common when tumors were located at the level of the distal esophagus/cardia (47% vs 23%, P = 0.011, OR 3.1), with statistical significance being kept in the multivariate analysis (OR 3.1, P = 0.018). Time until adverse events was lower in the tumors located at the level of the distal esophagus/cardia (P = 0.036). Survival was higher in patients who placed SEMS with curative intent (327 days [126-528] vs. 119 days [91-147], P = 0.002) and in patients submitted subsequently to surgery compared with those who did just chemo/radiotherapy or who did not do further treatment (563 days [378-748] vs. 154 days [133-175] vs. 46 days [20-72], P < 0.001). Subsequent treatment kept statistical significance in the multivariate analysis (HR 3.4, P < 0.001). SEMS allow palliation of dysphagia in advanced esophageal cancer and are associated with an increased out-of-hospital survival, as long as there are conditions for further treatments. Tumors located at the level of the distal esophagus/cardia are associated with a greater number of adverse events, which also occur earlier. © 2016 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Specific adverse events predict survival benefit in patients treated with tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors: an international tamoxifen exemestane adjuvant multinational trial analysis.

PubMed

Fontein, Duveken B Y; Seynaeve, Caroline; Hadji, Peyman; Hille, Elysée T M; van de Water, Willemien; Putter, Hein; Kranenbarg, Elma Meershoek-Klein; Hasenburg, Annette; Paridaens, Robert J; Vannetzel, Jean-Michel; Markopoulos, Christos; Hozumi, Yasuo; Bartlett, John M S; Jones, Stephen E; Rea, Daniel William; Nortier, Johan W R; van de Velde, Cornelis J H

2013-06-20

Specific adverse events (AEs) associated with endocrine therapy and related to depletion or blocking of circulating estrogens may be related to treatment efficacy. We investigated the relationship between survival outcomes and specific AEs including vasomotor symptoms (VMSs), musculoskeletal adverse events (MSAEs), and vulvovaginal symptoms (VVSs) in postmenopausal patients with breast cancer participating in the international Tamoxifen Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial. Primary efficacy end points were disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and distant metastases (DM). VMSs, MSAEs, and VVSs arising in the first year of endocrine treatment were considered. Patients who did not start or who discontinued their allocated therapy and/or had an event (recurrence/death) within 1 year after randomization were excluded. Landmark analyses and time-dependent multivariate Cox proportional hazards models assessed survival differences up to 5 years from the start of treatment. A total of 9,325 patients were included. Patients with specific AEs (v nonspecific or no AEs) had better DFS and OS (multivariate hazard ratio [HR] for DFS: VMSs, 0.731 [95% CI, 0.618 to 0.866]; MSAEs, 0.826 [95% CI, 0.694 to 0.982]; VVSs, 0.769 [95% CI, 0.585 to 1.01]; multivariate HR for OS: VMSs, 0.583 [95% CI, 0.424 to 0.803]; MSAEs, 0.811 [95% CI, 0.654 to 1.005]; VVSs, 0.570 [95% CI, 0.391 to 0.831]) and fewer DM (VMSs, 0.813 [95% CI, 0.664 to 0.996]; MSAEs, 0.749 [95% CI, 0.601 to 0.934]; VVSs, 0.687 [95% CI, 0.436 to 1.085]) than patients not reporting these symptoms. Increasing numbers of specific AEs were also associated with better survival outcomes. Outcomes were unrelated to treatment allocation. Certain specific AEs are associated with superior survival outcomes and may therefore be useful in predicting treatment responses in patients with breast cancer treated with endocrine therapy.

Stochastic Generation of Spatiotemporal Rainfall Events for Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diederen, D.; Liu, Y.; Gouldby, B.; Diermanse, F.

2017-12-01

Current flood risk analyses that only consider peaks of hydrometeorological forcing variables have limitations regarding their representation of reality. Simplistic assumptions regarding antecedent conditions are required, often different sources of flooding are considered in isolation, and the complex temporal and spatial evolution of the events is not considered. Mid-latitude storms, governed by large scale climatic conditions, often exhibit a high degree of temporal dependency, for example. For sustainable flood risk management, that accounts appropriately for climate change, it is desirable for flood risk analyses to reflect reality more appropriately. Analysis of risk mitigation measures and comparison of their relative performance is therefore likely to be more robust and lead to improved solutions. We provide a new framework for the provision of boundary conditions to flood risk analyses that more appropriately reflects reality. The boundary conditions capture the temporal dependencies of complex storms whilst preserving the extreme values and associated spatial dependencies. We demonstrate the application of this framework to generate a synthetic rainfall events time series boundary condition set from reanalysis rainfall data (CFSR) on the continental scale. We define spatiotemporal clusters of rainfall as events, extract hydrological parameters for each event, generate synthetic parameter sets with a multivariate distribution with a focus on the joint tail probability [Heffernan and Tawn, 2004], and finally create synthetic events from the generated synthetic parameters. We highlight the stochastic integration of (a) spatiotemporal features, e.g. event occurrence intensity over space-time, or time to previous event, which we use for the spatial placement and sequencing of the synthetic events, and (b) value-specific parameters, e.g. peak intensity and event extent. We contrast this to more traditional approaches to highlight the significant improvements in terms of representing the reality of extreme flood events.

Discrete mixture modeling to address genetic heterogeneity in time-to-event regression

PubMed Central

Eng, Kevin H.; Hanlon, Bret M.

2014-01-01

Motivation: Time-to-event regression models are a critical tool for associating survival time outcomes with molecular data. Despite mounting evidence that genetic subgroups of the same clinical disease exist, little attention has been given to exploring how this heterogeneity affects time-to-event model building and how to accommodate it. Methods able to diagnose and model heterogeneity should be valuable additions to the biomarker discovery toolset. Results: We propose a mixture of survival functions that classifies subjects with similar relationships to a time-to-event response. This model incorporates multivariate regression and model selection and can be fit with an expectation maximization algorithm, we call Cox-assisted clustering. We illustrate a likely manifestation of genetic heterogeneity and demonstrate how it may affect survival models with little warning. An application to gene expression in ovarian cancer DNA repair pathways illustrates how the model may be used to learn new genetic subsets for risk stratification. We explore the implications of this model for censored observations and the effect on genomic predictors and diagnostic analysis. Availability and implementation: R implementation of CAC using standard packages is available at https://gist.github.com/programeng/8620b85146b14b6edf8f Data used in the analysis are publicly available. Contact: kevin.eng@roswellpark.org Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24532723

Relations among soil radon, environmental parameters, volcanic and seismic events at Mt. Etna (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giammanco, S.; Ferrera, E.; Cannata, A.; Montalto, P.; Neri, M.

2013-12-01

From November 2009 to April 2011 soil radon activity was continuously monitored using a Barasol probe located on the upper NE flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), close both to the Piano Provenzana fault and to the NE-Rift. Seismic, volcanological and radon data were analysed together with data on environmental parameters, such as air and soil temperature, barometric pressure, snow and rain fall. In order to find possible correlations among the above parameters, and hence to reveal possible anomalous trends in the radon time-series, we used different statistical methods: i) multivariate linear regression; ii) cross-correlation; iii) coherence analysis through wavelet transform. Multivariate regression indicated a modest influence on soil radon from environmental parameters (R2 = 0.31). When using 100-day time windows, the R2 values showed wide variations in time, reaching their maxima (~0.63-0.66) during summer. Cross-correlation analysis over 100-day moving averages showed that, similar to multivariate linear regression analysis, the summer period was characterised by the best correlation between radon data and environmental parameters. Lastly, the wavelet coherence analysis allowed a multi-resolution coherence analysis of the time series acquired. This approach allowed to study the relations among different signals either in the time or in the frequency domain. It confirmed the results of the previous methods, but also allowed to recognize correlations between radon and environmental parameters at different observation scales (e.g., radon activity changed during strong precipitations, but also during anomalous variations of soil temperature uncorrelated with seasonal fluctuations). Using the above analysis, two periods were recognized when radon variations were significantly correlated with marked soil temperature changes and also with local seismic or volcanic activity. This allowed to produce two different physical models of soil gas transport that explain the observed anomalies. Our work suggests that in order to make an accurate analysis of the relations among different signals it is necessary to use different techniques that give complementary analytical information. In particular, the wavelet analysis showed to be the most effective in discriminating radon changes due to environmental influences from those correlated with impending seismic or volcanic events.

An Event-Level Analysis of Condom Use During Anal Intercourse Among Self-Reported Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Negative Gay and Bisexual Men in a Treatment as Prevention Environment.

PubMed

Lachowsky, Nathan John; Tanner, Zach; Cui, Zishan; Sereda, Paul; Rich, Asheligh; Jollimore, Jody; Montaner, Julio Sg; Hogg, Robert S; Moore, David M; Roth, Eric A

2016-12-01

We sought to identify factors associated with condom use during anal intercourse among self-identified human immunodeficiency virus-negative gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) in Vancouver, Canada following "treatment as prevention" (TasP) scale-up in 2010. Sexually active GBM were recruited using respondent-driven sampling from 2012 to 2014. We analyzed participants' most recent sexual encounter with up to their last 5 sexual partners within the past 6 months. In addition to individual- and event-level explanatory factors, we assessed potential associations with TasP awareness, TasP-related prevention practice (viral load sorting), and TasP-related attitudes (human immunodeficiency virus treatment optimism). Accounting for clustering at the respondent-driven sampling chain-level and participant-level, factors associated with event-level condom use versus nonuse were determined using a multivariable generalized linear mixed model built using backward selection and AIC minimization. Of 513 participants, 436 GBM (85%) reported a total of 1196 anal sex events with 56% condom use. The proportion of condom-protected sexual events decreased monthly over the study period (odds ratio [OR], 0.95 per month, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.98). The TasP practices and attitudes were significantly associated with lower odds of condom use at the univariate level, but were no longer significant at multivariate level. In the multivariable model, event-level partner methamphetamine use (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.18; 95% CI, 0.06-0.58), frequency of recent anal intercourse with that partner (aOR, 0.97 per act; 95% CI, 0.95-0.98) and time since first sex with that partner (aOR, 0.97 per 6 months; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) were associated with lower odds of condom use, whereas event-level participant alcohol use (aOR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.01-1.98) and no planned future sex with that partner (aOR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.08-2.27) were associated with greater odds of condom use. Event-level receptive-only (aOR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.38-3.20) or insertive-only (aOR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.64-3.90) sexual positions were associated with greater odds of condom use compared with reporting both positions. The TasP-related factors were not the most salient predictors of GBM's condom use. Health promotion must consider associations between condomless anal sex and substance use and relational factors.

Evaluation of the natural history of patients who aspirate.

PubMed

Bock, Jonathan M; Varadarajan, Varun; Brawley, Mary C; Blumin, Joel H

2017-12-01

The natural clinical progression of aspiration to eventual pulmonary compromise is not well understood. We hypothesized that dietary modification recommendations, Penetration-Aspiration Scale (PAS) score, and dysphagia etiology would be associated with changes in time to first pulmonary event and overall survival for patients with documented aspiration on radiologic testing. This study identified a cohort of patients with detectable unsensed penetration or aspiration on videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS), and followed this cohort over time for development of pulmonary events and death. We then evaluated the association of aspiration severity and dietary modification recommendations on incidence of these endpoints. Retrospective chart review. A total of 2,616 VFSS exam reports were reviewed from our institution performed between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010. Aspiration or unsensed penetration (PAS of 5 or greater) was detected in 564 (21.5%) of these patients, who were then included in the study cohort. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively for development of pulmonary events (pneumonia, pneumonitis, or other life-threatening pulmonary illness) and all-cause mortality for up to 54 months after initial VFSS. Univariate Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox regression were performed for time to first pulmonary event and survival predicted by recommended diet, PAS score, and dysphagia etiology. Dysphagia etiology was highly associated with increased development of pulmonary events for some patients, especially those with generalized nonspecific dysphagia due to deconditioning or frailty (hazard ratio [HZ] vs. stroke 2.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53-5.69, P = .001) and esophageal dysphagia (HZ: 2.66, 95% CI: 1.17-6.02, P = .019). Dysphagia etiology was also associated with increased mortality for patients with generalized nonspecific dysphagia due to deconditioning or frailty (HZ: 3.32, 95% CI: 2.0-5.52, P < .001), postsurgical patients (HZ: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.05-2.86, P = .032), and chronic neurologic disease (HZ: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.12-3.13, P = .017). Dietary modification recommendations at the time of VFSS (prohibition of oral intake or modification of food consistency) had no significant impact on time to first pulmonary event (P = .37) or survival (P = .17), whereas PAS score was associated with decreased time to first pulmonary event on univariate but not multivariate analysis (HZ for 1-point increase: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.99-1.36, P = .067). Kaplan-Meier estimate of overall 3-year mortality for this patient cohort was 39%. Etiology of dysphagia is associated with a higher mortality rate and development of pulmonary events in patients with unsensed penetration or aspiration on VFSS, especially for those patients with generalized deconditioning and frailty or esophageal dysphagia. Severity of aspiration as defined by PAS was not associated with altered overall survival. Recommendations for dietary modification to a nothing by mouth status or modified food consistency had no statistically significant association with development of pulmonary events or survival in patients with detectable unsensed penetration or aspiration on VFSS compared to full-diet recommendation. 4. Laryngoscope, 127:S1-S10, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Association Between Inflammatory Markers and Progression to Kidney Dysfunction: Examining Different Assessment Windows in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Baker, Nathaniel L; Hunt, Kelly J; Stevens, Danielle R; Jarai, Gabor; Rosen, Glenn D; Klein, Richard L; Virella, Gabriel; Lopes-Virella, Maria F

2018-01-01

To determine whether biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction are associated with the development of kidney dysfunction and the time frame of their association. Biomarkers were measured at four time points during 28 years of treatment and follow-up in patients with type 1 diabetes in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) cohort. In addition to traditional biomarkers of inflammation (C-reactive protein and fibrinogen), we measured interleukin-6 (IL-6) and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR-1/2), markers of endothelial dysfunction (soluble intracellular adhesion molecule-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, and E-selectin [sE-selectin]), and fibrinolysis (total and active plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 [PAI-1]). Renal outcomes were defined as progression to incident chronic kidney disease (stage 3 or more severe) or macroalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate ≥300 mg/24 h). Prospective multivariate event-time analyses were used to determine the association of each biomarker with each subsequent event within prespecified intervals (3-year and 10-year windows). Multivariate event-time models indicated that several markers of inflammation (sTNFR-1/2), endothelial dysfunction (sE-selectin), and clotting/fibrinolysis (fibrinogen and PAI-1) are significantly associated with subsequent development of kidney dysfunction. Although some markers showed variations in the associations between the follow-up windows examined, the results indicate that biomarkers (sTNFR-1/2, sE-selectin, PAI-1, and fibrinogen) are associated with progression to chronic kidney disease in both the 3-year and the 10-year windows. Plasma markers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and clotting/fibrinolysis are associated with progression to kidney dysfunction in type 1 diabetes during both short-term and long-term follow-up. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

2017-04-01

The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for the entire study area.

Cure frailty models for survival data: application to recurrences for breast cancer and to hospital readmissions for colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Rondeau, Virginie; Schaffner, Emmanuel; Corbière, Fabien; Gonzalez, Juan R; Mathoulin-Pélissier, Simone

2013-06-01

Owing to the natural evolution of a disease, several events often arise after a first treatment for the same subject. For example, patients with a primary invasive breast cancer and treated with breast conserving surgery may experience breast cancer recurrences, metastases or death. A certain proportion of subjects in the population who are not expected to experience the events of interest are considered to be 'cured' or non-susceptible. To model correlated failure time data incorporating a surviving fraction, we compare several forms of cure rate frailty models. In the first model already proposed non-susceptible patients are those who are not expected to experience the event of interest over a sufficiently long period of time. The other proposed models account for the possibility of cure after each event. We illustrate the cure frailty models with two data sets. First to analyse time-dependent prognostic factors associated with breast cancer recurrences, metastases, new primary malignancy and death. Second to analyse successive rehospitalizations of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Estimates were obtained by maximization of likelihood using SAS proc NLMIXED for a piecewise constant hazards model. As opposed to the simple frailty model, the proposed methods demonstrate great potential in modelling multivariate survival data with long-term survivors ('cured' individuals).

Delayed surgery after acute traumatic central cord syndrome is associated with reduced mortality.

PubMed

Samuel, Andre M; Grant, Ryan A; Bohl, Daniel D; Basques, Bryce A; Webb, Matthew L; Lukasiewicz, Adam M; Diaz-Collado, Pablo J; Grauer, Jonathan N

2015-03-01

A retrospective study of surgically treated patients with acute traumatic central cord syndrome (ATCCS) from the National Trauma Data Bank Research Data Set. To determine the association of time to surgery, pre-existing comorbidities, and injury severity on mortality and adverse events in surgically treated patients with ATCCS. Although earlier surgery has been shown to be beneficial for other spinal cord injuries, the literature is mixed regarding the appropriate timing of surgery after ATCCS. Traditionally, this older population has been treated with delayed surgery because medical optimization is often indicated preoperatively. Surgically treated patients with ATCCS in the National Trauma Data Bank Research Data Set from 2011 and 2012 were identified. Time to surgery, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and injury severity scores were tested for association with mortality, serious adverse events, and minor adverse events using multivariate logistic regression. A total of 1060 patients with ATCCS met inclusion criteria. After controlling for pre-existing comorbidity and injury severity, delayed surgery was associated with a decreased odds of inpatient mortality (odds ratio = 0.81, P = 0.04), or a 19% decrease in odds of mortality with each 24-hour increase in time until surgery. The association of time to surgery with serious adverse events was not statistically significant (P = 0.09), whereas time to surgery was associated with increased odds of minor adverse events (odds ratio = 1.06, P < 0.001). Although the potential neurological effect of surgical timing for patients with ATCCS remains controversial, the decreased mortality with delayed surgery suggests that waiting to optimize general health and potentially allow for some spinal cord recovery in these patients may be advantageous. 3.

Detailed Analysis of Peri-Procedural Strokes in Patients Undergoing Intracranial Stenting in SAMMPRIS

PubMed Central

Fiorella, David; Derdeyn, Colin P; Lynn, Michael J; Barnwell, Stanley L; Hoh, Brian L.; Levy, Elad I.; Harrigan, Mark R.; Klucznik, Richard P.; McDougall, Cameron G.; Pride, G. Lee; Zaidat, Osama O.; Lutsep, Helmi L.; Waters, Michael F.; Hourihane, J. Maurice; Alexandrov, Andrei V.; Chiu, David; Clark, Joni M.; Johnson, Mark D.; Torbey, Michel T.; Rumboldt, Zoran; Cloft, Harry J.; Turan, Tanya N.; Lane, Bethany F.; Janis, L. Scott; Chimowitz, Marc I.

2012-01-01

Background and Purpose Enrollment in the SAMMPRIS trial was halted due to the high risk of stroke or death within 30 days of enrollment in the percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting (PTAS) arm relative to the medical arm. This analysis focuses on the patient and procedural factors that may have been associated with peri-procedural cerebrovascular events in the trial. Methods Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate whether patient and procedural variables were associated with cerebral ischemic or hemorrhagic events occurring within 30 days of enrollment (termed peri-procedural) in the PTAS arm. Results Of 224 patients randomized to PTAS, 213 underwent angioplasty alone (n=5) or with stenting (n=208). Of these, 13 had hemorrhagic strokes (7 parenchymal, 6 subarachnoid), 19 had ischemic stroke, and 2 had cerebral infarcts with temporary signs (CITS) within the peri-procedural period. Ischemic events were categorized as perforator occlusions (13), embolic (4), mixed perforator and embolic (2), and delayed stent occlusion (2). Multivariate analyses showed that higher percent stenosis, lower modified Rankin score, and clopidogrel load associated with an activated clotting time above the target range were associated (p ≤ 0.05) with hemorrhagic stroke. Non-smoking, basilar artery stenosis, diabetes, and older age were associated (p ≤ 0.05) with ischemic events. Conclusions Peri-procedural strokes in SAMMPRIS had multiple causes with the most common being perforator occlusion. Although risk factors for peri-procedural strokes could be identified, excluding patients with these features from undergoing PTAS to lower the procedural risk would limit PTAS to a small subset of patients. Moreover, given the small number of events, the present data should be used for hypothesis generation rather than to guide patient selection in clinical practice. PMID:22984008

Multivariate flood risk assessment: reinsurance perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Ellenrieder, Tobias

2013-04-01

For insurance and re-insurance purposes the knowledge of the spatial characteristics of fluvial flooding is fundamental. The probability of simultaneous flooding at different locations during one event and the associated severity and losses have to be estimated in order to assess premiums and for accumulation control (Probable Maximum Losses calculation). Therefore, the identification of a statistical model able to describe the multivariate joint distribution of flood events in multiple location is necessary. In this context, copulas can be viewed as alternative tools for dealing with multivariate simulations as they allow to formalize dependence structures of random vectors. An application of copula function for flood scenario generation is presented for Australia (Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria) where 100.000 possible flood scenarios covering approximately 15.000 years were simulated.

Lower Performance in Orientation to Time and Place Associates with Greater Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the Oldest Old: Leiden 85-Plus Study.

PubMed

Rostamian, Somayeh; van Buchem, Mark A; Jukema, J Wouter; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Poortvliet, Rosalinde K E; de Cren, Anton J M; Sabayan, Behnam

2017-01-01

Background: Impairment in orientation to time and place is commonly observed in community-dwelling older individuals. Nevertheless, the clinical significance of this has been not fully explored. In this study, we investigated the link between performance in orientation domains and future risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in a non-hospital setting of the oldest old adults. Methods: We included 528 subjects free of myocardial infarction (Group A), 477 individuals free of stroke/transient ischemic attack (Group B), and 432 subjects free of both myocardial infarction and stroke/transient ischemic attack (Group C) at baseline from the population-based Leiden 85-plus cohort study. Participants were asked to answer five questions related to orientation to time and five questions related to orientation to place. 5-year risks of first-time fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal stroke, as well as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality, were estimated using the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: In the multivariable analyses, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors, each point lower performance in "orientation to time" was significantly associated with higher risk of first-time myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.67, P = 0.007), first-time stroke (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.64, P = 0.002), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.54, P = 0.009) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.20-1.56, P < 0.001). Similarly, each point lower performance in "orientation to place" was significantly associated with higher risk of first-time myocardial infarction (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.22, P = 0.001), first-time stroke (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05-1.82, P = 0.016), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.00-1.82, P = 0.054) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.20-1.77, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Lower performance in orientation to time and place in advanced age is independently related to higher risk of myocardial infarction, stroke and mortality. Impaired orientation might be an early sign of covert vascular injuries, putting subjects at greater risk of cardiovascular events and mortality.

Prediction of UT1-UTC, LOD and AAM χ3 by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, Tomasz; Kosek, Wiesław

2008-02-01

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1-UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1-UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1-UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1-UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1-UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1-UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.

Dynamical Structure of Madden-Julian Oscillation over Malay Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djamil, Y. S.; Koh, T. Y.; Chandimala, J.; Teo, C. K.

2014-12-01

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant weather event in the intraseasonal time scale over Malay Peninsula region. The MJO signals are represented by the first two modes of radiosonde records extracted using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) analyses which we label as Local Multivariate MJO (LMM). LMM is able to capture the spatio-temporal profile of MJO along the global tropics in all seasons. With the help of LMM, we clarify the dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the MJO over Malay Peninsula, including the unique "boomerang-shaped" feature in the time-height temperature profile identified in previous literature.

Classifier for gravitational-wave inspiral signals in nonideal single-detector data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapadia, S. J.; Dent, T.; Dal Canton, T.

2017-11-01

We describe a multivariate classifier for candidate events in a templated search for gravitational-wave (GW) inspiral signals from neutron-star-black-hole (NS-BH) binaries, in data from ground-based detectors where sensitivity is limited by non-Gaussian noise transients. The standard signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and chi-squared test for inspiral searches use only properties of a single matched filter at the time of an event; instead, we propose a classifier using features derived from a bank of inspiral templates around the time of each event, and also from a search using approximate sine-Gaussian templates. The classifier thus extracts additional information from strain data to discriminate inspiral signals from noise transients. We evaluate a random forest classifier on a set of single-detector events obtained from realistic simulated advanced LIGO data, using simulated NS-BH signals added to the data. The new classifier detects a factor of 1.5-2 more signals at low false positive rates as compared to the standard "reweighted SNR" statistic, and does not require the chi-squared test to be computed. Conversely, if only the SNR and chi-squared values of single-detector events are available, random forest classification performs nearly identically to the reweighted SNR.

Effect of hyperlipidemia on the incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Fan, Dabei; Li, Li; Li, Zhizhen; Zhang, Ying; Ma, Xiaojun; Wu, Lina; Qin, Guijun

2018-05-08

This study was to explore the effect of hyperlipidemia on the incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes. Three hundred ninety five patients with type 2 diabetes in our hospital from January 2012 to January 2016 were followed up with an average of 3.8 years. The incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases between diabetes combined with hyperlipidemia group (195 patients) and diabetes group (200 patients) were made a comparison. Multivariable Cox's proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the effect of hyperlipidemia on the incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes. Diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, body mass index and hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein were higher in diabetes combined with hyperlipidemia group than in diabetes group (P < 0.05). At the end of the follow-up period, all-cause mortality, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases mortality, and the incidence of myocardial infarction, cerebral infarction, cerebral hemorrhage and total cardiovascular events were significantly higher in diabetes combined with hyperlipidemia group than in diabetes group (P < 0.05). The analysis results of multivariable Cox's proportional hazards regression model showed that the risks of myocardial infarction and total cardiovascular events in diabetes combined with hyperlipidemia group were respectively 1.54 times (95%CI 1.13-2.07) and 1.68 times (95%CI 1.23-2.24) higher than those in diabetes group. Population attributable risk percent of all-cause mortality and total cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes combined with hyperlipidemia was 9.6% and 26.8%, respectively. Hyperlipidemia may promote vascular endothelial injury, increasing the risk of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes. Medical staffs should pay attention to the control of blood lipids in patients with type 2 diabetes to delay the occurrence of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.

Analytical Models of Cross-Layer Protocol Optimization in Real-Time Wireless Sensor Ad Hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hortos, William S.

The real-time interactions among the nodes of a wireless sensor network (WSN) to cooperatively process data from multiple sensors are modeled. Quality-of-service (QoS) metrics are associated with the quality of fused information: throughput, delay, packet error rate, etc. Multivariate point process (MVPP) models of discrete random events in WSNs establish stochastic characteristics of optimal cross-layer protocols. Discrete-event, cross-layer interactions in mobile ad hoc network (MANET) protocols have been modeled using a set of concatenated design parameters and associated resource levels by the MVPPs. Characterization of the "best" cross-layer designs for a MANET is formulated by applying the general theory of martingale representations to controlled MVPPs. Performance is described in terms of concatenated protocol parameters and controlled through conditional rates of the MVPPs. Modeling limitations to determination of closed-form solutions versus explicit iterative solutions for ad hoc WSN controls are examined.

Multivariate Spatial Condition Mapping Using Subtractive Fuzzy Cluster Means

PubMed Central

Sabit, Hakilo; Al-Anbuky, Adnan

2014-01-01

Wireless sensor networks are usually deployed for monitoring given physical phenomena taking place in a specific space and over a specific duration of time. The spatio-temporal distribution of these phenomena often correlates to certain physical events. To appropriately characterise these events-phenomena relationships over a given space for a given time frame, we require continuous monitoring of the conditions. WSNs are perfectly suited for these tasks, due to their inherent robustness. This paper presents a subtractive fuzzy cluster means algorithm and its application in data stream mining for wireless sensor systems over a cloud-computing-like architecture, which we call sensor cloud data stream mining. Benchmarking on standard mining algorithms, the k-means and the FCM algorithms, we have demonstrated that the subtractive fuzzy cluster means model can perform high quality distributed data stream mining tasks comparable to centralised data stream mining. PMID:25313495

[Effect of Chinese drugs for activating blood circulation and removing blood stasis on carotid atherosclerosis and ischemic cerebrovascular events].

PubMed

Lu, Yan; Li, Tao

2014-03-01

To explore the effect of Chinese drugs for activating blood circulation and removing blood stasis (CDABCRBS) on carotid atherosclerotic plaque and long-term ischemic cerebrovascular events. By using open and control method, effect of 4 groups of platelet antagonists, platelet antagonists + CDABCRBS, platelet antagonists +atorvastatin, platelet antagonists +atorvastatin +CDABCRBS on carotid atherosclerotic plaque and long-term ischemic cerebrovascular events of 90 cerebral infarction patients were analyzed. Through survival analysis, there was no statistical difference in the effect of the 4 interventions on the variation of carotid stenosis rates or ischemic cerebrovascular events (P > 0.05). The occurrence of ischemic cerebrovascular events could be postponed by about 4 months in those treated with platelet antagonists + CDABCRBS and platelet antagonists + atorvastatin +CDABCRBS. By multivariate Logistic analysis, age, hypertension, and clopidogrel were associated with stenosis of extracranial carotid arteries (P <0.05). Age, diabetes, aspirin, clopidogrel, CDABCRBS were correlated with cerebrovascular accidents (P < 0.05). Whether or not accompanied with hypertension is an influential factor for carotid stenosis, but it does not affect the occurrence of ischemic cerebrovascular events. CDABCRBS could effectively prolong the occurrence time of ischemic cerebrovascular events.

LSST Astroinformatics And Astrostatistics: Data-oriented Astronomical Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borne, Kirk D.; Stassun, K.; Brunner, R. J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Graham, M.; Hakkila, J.; Mahabal, A.; Paegert, M.; Pesenson, M.; Ptak, A.; Scargle, J.; Informatics, LSST; Statistics Team

2011-01-01

The LSST Informatics and Statistics Science Collaboration (ISSC) focuses on research and scientific discovery challenges posed by the very large and complex data collection that LSST will generate. Application areas include astroinformatics, machine learning, data mining, astrostatistics, visualization, scientific data semantics, time series analysis, and advanced signal processing. Research problems to be addressed with these methodologies include transient event characterization and classification, rare class discovery, correlation mining, outlier/anomaly/surprise detection, improved estimators (e.g., for photometric redshift or early onset supernova classification), exploration of highly dimensional (multivariate) data catalogs, and more. We present sample science results from these data-oriented approaches to large-data astronomical research. We present results from LSST ISSC team members, including the EB (Eclipsing Binary) Factory, the environmental variations in the fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies, and outlier detection in multivariate catalogs.

A stochastic storm surge generator for the German North Sea and the multivariate statistical assessment of the simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Jensen, Jürgen; Mudersbach, Christoph

2010-05-01

Storm surges along the German North Sea coastline led to major damages in the past and the risk of inundation is expected to increase in the course of an ongoing climate change. The knowledge of the characteristics of possible storm surges is essential for the performance of integrated risk analyses, e.g. based on the source-pathway-receptor concept. The latter includes the storm surge simulation/analyses (source), modelling of dike/dune breach scenarios (pathway) and the quantification of potential losses (receptor). In subproject 1b of the German joint research project XtremRisK (www.xtremrisk.de), a stochastic storm surge generator for the south-eastern North Sea area is developed. The input data for the multivariate model are high resolution sea level observations from tide gauges during extreme events. Based on 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters) observed storm surge hydrographs consisting of three tides are parameterised. Followed by the adaption of common parametric probability distributions and a large number of Monte-Carlo-Simulations, the final reconstruction leads to a set of 100.000 (default) synthetic storm surge events with a one-minute resolution. Such a data set can potentially serve as the basis for a large number of applications. For risk analyses, storm surges with peak water levels exceeding the design water levels are of special interest. The occurrence probabilities of the simulated extreme events are estimated based on multivariate statistics, considering the parameters "peak water level" and "fullness/intensity". In the past, most studies considered only the peak water levels during extreme events, which might not be the most important parameter in any cases. Here, a 2D-Archimedian copula model is used for the estimation of the joint probabilities of the selected parameters, accounting for the structures of dependence overlooking the margins. In coordination with subproject 1a, the results will be used as the input for the XtremRisK subprojects 2 to 4. The project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project No. 03 F 0483 B).

Low-Dose Aspirin Discontinuation and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Swedish Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Sundström, Johan; Hedberg, Jakob; Thuresson, Marcus; Aarskog, Pernilla; Johannesen, Kasper Munk; Oldgren, Jonas

2017-09-26

There are increasing concerns about risks associated with aspirin discontinuation in the absence of major surgery or bleeding. We investigated whether long-term low-dose aspirin discontinuation and treatment gaps increase the risk of cardiovascular events. We performed a cohort study of 601 527 users of low-dose aspirin for primary or secondary prevention in the Swedish prescription register between 2005 and 2009 who were >40 years of age, were free from previous cancer, and had ≥80% adherence during the first observed year of treatment. Cardiovascular events were identified with the Swedish inpatient and cause-of-death registers. The first 3 months after a major bleeding or surgical procedure were excluded from the time at risk. During a median of 3.0 years of follow-up, 62 690 cardiovascular events occurred. Patients who discontinued aspirin had a higher rate of cardiovascular events than those who continued (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-1.41), corresponding to an additional cardiovascular event observed per year in 1 of every 74 patients who discontinue aspirin. The risk increased shortly after discontinuation and did not appear to diminish over time. In long-term users, discontinuation of low-dose aspirin in the absence of major surgery or bleeding was associated with a >30% increased risk of cardiovascular events. Adherence to low-dose aspirin treatment in the absence of major surgery or bleeding is likely an important treatment goal. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Sentinel events predicting later unwanted sex among girls: A national survey in Haiti, 2012.

PubMed

Sumner, Steven A; Marcelin, Louis H; Cela, Toni; Mercy, James A; Lea, Veronica; Kress, Howard; Hillis, Susan D

2015-12-01

Sexual violence against children is a significant global public health problem, yet limited studies exist from low-resource settings. In Haiti we conducted the country's first, nationally representative survey focused on childhood violence to help inform the development of a national action plan for violence against children. The Haiti Violence Against Children Survey was a household-level, multistage, cluster survey among youth age 13-24. In this analysis we sought to determine whether sexual violence sentinel events (unwanted sexual touching or unwanted attempted sex) were predictive of later unwanted, completed, penetrative sex in Haiti. We also sought to explore characteristics of sentinel events and help-seeking behavior among Haitian children. Multivariable logistic regression was used to test associations between sentinel events and later unwanted, completed, penetrative sex. Overall, 1,457 females reported on experiences of sexual violence occurring in childhood (before age 18). A sentinel event occurred in 40.4% of females who experienced subsequent unwanted completed sex. Females experiencing a sentinel event were approximately two and a half times more likely to experience later unwanted completed sex (adjusted odds ratio=2.40, p=.004) compared to individuals who did not experience a sentinel event. The mean lag time from first sentinel event to first unwanted completed sex was 2.3 years. Only half (54.6%) of children experiencing a sentinel event told someone about their experience of sexual violence. Among children, sentinel events occur frequently before later acts of completed unwanted sex and may represent a useful point of intervention. Reporting of sexual violence by children in Haiti is low and can be improved to better act on sentinel events. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Isolated transient vertigo: posterior circulation ischemia or benign origin?

PubMed

Blasberg, Tobias F; Wolf, Lea; Henke, Christian; Lorenz, Matthias W

2017-06-14

Isolated transient vertigo can be the only symptom of posterior circulation ischemia. Thus, it is important to differentiate isolated vertigo of a cerebrovascular origin from that of more benign origins, as patients with cerebral ischemia have a much higher risk for future stroke than do those with 'peripheral' vertigo. The current study aims to identify risk factors for cerebrovascular origin of isolated transient vertigo, and for future cerebrovascular events. From the files of 339 outpatients with isolated transient vertigo we extracted history, clinical and technical findings, diagnosis, and follow-up information on subsequent stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Risk factors were analyzed using multivariate regression models (logistic or Cox) and reconfirmed in univariate analyses. On first presentation, 48 (14.2%) patients received the diagnosis 'probable or definite cerebrovascular vertigo'. During follow-up, 41 patients suffered stroke or TIA (event rate 7.9 per 100 person years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5-10.4), 26 in the posterior circulation (event rate 4.8 per 100 person years, 95% CI 3.0-6.7). The diagnosis was not associated with follow-up cerebrovascular events. In multivariate models testing multiple potential determinants, only the presentation mode was consistently associated with the diagnosis and stroke risk: patients who presented because of vertigo (rather than reporting vertigo when they presented for other reasons) had a significantly higher risk for future stroke or TIA (p = 0.028, event rate 13.4 vs. 5.4 per 100 person years) and for future posterior circulation stroke or TIA (p = 0.044, event rate 7.8 vs. 3.5 per 100 person years). We here report for the first time follow-up stroke rates in patients with transient isolated vertigo. In such patients, the identification of those with cerebrovascular origin remains difficult, and presentation mode was found to be the only consistent risk factor. Confirmation in an independent prospective sample is needed.

A Cyber-Attack Detection Model Based on Multivariate Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakai, Yuto; Rinsaka, Koichiro; Dohi, Tadashi

In the present paper, we propose a novel cyber-attack detection model based on two multivariate-analysis methods to the audit data observed on a host machine. The statistical techniques used here are the well-known Hayashi's quantification method IV and cluster analysis method. We quantify the observed qualitative audit event sequence via the quantification method IV, and collect similar audit event sequence in the same groups based on the cluster analysis. It is shown in simulation experiments that our model can improve the cyber-attack detection accuracy in some realistic cases where both normal and attack activities are intermingled.

Survival Outcomes and Effect of Early vs. Deferred cART Among HIV-Infected Patients Diagnosed at the Time of an AIDS-Defining Event: A Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Mussini, Cristina; Johnson, Margaret; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Antinori, Andrea; Gill, M. John; Sighinolfi, Laura; Uberti-Foppa, Caterina; Borghi, Vanni; Sabin, Caroline

2011-01-01

Objectives We analyzed clinical progression among persons diagnosed with HIV at the time of an AIDS-defining event, and assessed the impact on outcome of timing of combined antiretroviral treatment (cART). Methods Retrospective, European and Canadian multicohort study.. Patients were diagnosed with HIV from 1997–2004 and had clinical AIDS from 30 days before to 14 days after diagnosis. Clinical progression (new AIDS event, death) was described using Kaplan-Meier analysis stratifying by type of AIDS event. Factors associated with progression were identified with multivariable Cox regression. Progression rates were compared between those starting early (<30 days after AIDS event) or deferred (30–270 days after AIDS event) cART. Results The median (interquartile range) CD4 count and viral load (VL) at diagnosis of the 584 patients were 42 (16, 119) cells/µL and 5.2 (4.5, 5.7) log10 copies/mL. Clinical progression was observed in 165 (28.3%) patients. Older age, a higher VL at diagnosis, and a diagnosis of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (vs. other AIDS events) were independently associated with disease progression. Of 366 patients with an opportunistic infection, 178 (48.6%) received early cART. There was no significant difference in clinical progression between those initiating cART early and those deferring treatment (adjusted hazard ratio 1.32 [95% confidence interval 0.87, 2.00], p = 0.20). Conclusions Older patients and patients with high VL or NHL at diagnosis had a worse outcome. Our data suggest that earlier initiation of cART may be beneficial among HIV-infected patients diagnosed with clinical AIDS in our setting. PMID:22043301

New agreement measures based on survival processes

PubMed Central

Guo, Ying; Li, Ruosha; Peng, Limin; Manatunga, Amita K.

2013-01-01

Summary The need to assess agreement arises in many scenarios in biomedical sciences when measurements were taken by different methods on the same subjects. When the endpoints are survival outcomes, the study of agreement becomes more challenging given the special characteristics of time-to-event data. In this paper, we propose a new framework for assessing agreement based on survival processes that can be viewed as a natural representation of time-to-event outcomes. Our new agreement measure is formulated as the chance-corrected concordance between survival processes. It provides a new perspective for studying the relationship between correlated survival outcomes and offers an appealing interpretation as the agreement between survival times on the absolute distance scale. We provide a multivariate extension of the proposed agreement measure for multiple methods. Furthermore, the new framework enables a natural extension to evaluate time-dependent agreement structure. We develop nonparametric estimation of the proposed new agreement measures. Our estimators are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators through simulation studies and then illustrate the methods using a prostate cancer data example. PMID:23844617

It Depends on When You Ask: Motives for Using Marijuana Assessed Before versus After a Marijuana Use Event

PubMed Central

Shrier, Lydia A.; Scherer, Emily Blood

2014-01-01

Marijuana use motives are typically evaluated retrospectively using measures that summarize or generalize across episodes of use, which may compromise validity. Using Ecological Momentary Assessment data, we examined the main reason for a specific marijuana use event measured both prospectively and retrospectively. We then determined reason types, event characteristics, and user characteristics that predicted change in reason. Thirty-six medical outpatients age 15 to 24 years who used marijuana two times a week or more used a handheld computer to select their main reason for use from the five categories of the Marijuana Motives Measure (Simons, Correia, & Carey, 1998) just before and after each time they used marijuana over two weeks (n = 263 events with before/after reason). Reasons were examined individually and according to dimensions identified in motivational models of substance use (positive/negative, internal/external). Reason assessed before use changed to a different reason after use for 20% of events: 10% of events for pleasure; 21%, to cope; 35%, to be more social; 55%, to expand my mind; and 100%, to conform. In the multivariable model, external and expansion reasons each predicted change in reason for use (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Youth were also more likely to change their reason if older (p = 0.04), if male (p = 0.02), and with weekend use (p = 0.002). Retrospective assessments of event-specific motives for marijuana use may be unreliable and therefore invalid for a substantial minority of events, particularly if use is for external or expansion reasons. PMID:25123342

Citrus consumption and incident dementia in elderly Japanese: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study.

PubMed

Zhang, Shu; Tomata, Yasutake; Sugiyama, Kemmyo; Sugawara, Yumi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2017-04-01

Although some experimental biological studies have indicated that citrus may have preventive effects against cognitive impairment, no cohort study has yet examined the relationship between citrus consumption and incident dementia. In a baseline survey, we collected data on daily citrus intake (categorised as ≤2, 3-4 times/week or almost every day) and consumption of other foods using a FFQ, and used a self-reported questionnaire to collect data on other covariates. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance database. A multivariate-adjusted Cox model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI for incident dementia according to citrus consumption. Among 13 373 participants, the 5·7-year incidence of dementia was 8·6 %. In comparison with participants who consumed citrus ≤2 times/week, the multivariate-adjusted HR for incident dementia among those did so 3-4 times/week and almost every day was 0·92 (95 % CI 0·80, 1·07) and 0·86 (95 % CI 0·73, 1·01), respectively (P trend=0·065). The inverse association persisted after excluding participants whose dementia events had occurred in the first 2 years of follow-up. The multivariate HR was 1·00 (reference) for ≤2 times/week, 0·82 (95 % CI 0·69, 0·98) for 3-4 times/week and 0·77 (95 % CI 0·64, 0·93) for almost every day (P trend=0·006). The present findings suggest that frequent citrus consumption was associated with a lower risk of incident dementia, even after adjustment for possible confounding factors.

Biological and Sociocultural Factors During the School Years Predicting Women's Lifetime Educational Attainment.

PubMed

Hendrick, C Emily; Cohen, Alison K; Deardorff, Julianna; Cance, Jessica D

2016-03-01

Lifetime educational attainment is an important predictor of health and well-being for women in the United States. In this study, we examine the roles of sociocultural factors in youth and an understudied biological life event, pubertal timing, in predicting women's lifetime educational attainment. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (N = 3889), we conducted sequential multivariate linear regression analyses to investigate the influences of macro-level and family-level sociocultural contextual factors in youth (region of country, urbanicity, race/ethnicity, year of birth, household composition, mother's education, and mother's age at first birth) and early menarche, a marker of early pubertal development, on women's educational attainment after age 24. Pubertal timing and all sociocultural factors in youth, other than year of birth, predicted women's lifetime educational attainment in bivariate models. Family factors had the strongest associations. When family factors were added to multivariate models, geographic region in youth, and pubertal timing were no longer significant. Our findings provide additional evidence that family factors should be considered when developing comprehensive and inclusive interventions in childhood and adolescence to promote lifetime educational attainment among girls. © 2016, American School Health Association.

Short sleep duration as an independent predictor of cardiovascular events in Japanese patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Eguchi, Kazuo; Pickering, Thomas G; Schwartz, Joseph E; Hoshide, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

2008-11-10

It is not known whether short duration of sleep is a predictor of future cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. To test the hypothesis that short duration of sleep is independently associated with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD), we performed ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring in 1255 subjects with hypertension (mean [SD] age, 70.4 [9.9] years) and followed them for a mean period of 50 (23) months. Short sleep duration was defined as less than 7.5 hours (20th percentile). Multivariable Cox hazard models predicting CVD events were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) for short sleep duration. A riser pattern was defined when mean nighttime systolic BP exceeded daytime systolic BP. The end point was a cardiovascular event: stroke, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), and sudden cardiac death. In multivariable analyses, short duration of sleep (<7.5 hours) was associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.06-2.66; P = .03). A synergistic interaction was observed between short sleep duration and the riser pattern (P = .09). When subjects were classified according to their sleep time and a riser vs nonriser pattern, the group with shorter sleep duration plus the riser pattern had a substantially and significantly higher incidence of CVD than the group with predominant normal sleep duration plus the nonriser pattern (HR, 4.43; 95% CI, 2.09-9.39; P < .001), independent of covariates. Short duration of sleep is associated with incident CVD risk and the combination of the riser pattern and short duration of sleep that is most strongly predictive of future CVD, independent of ambulatory BP levels. Physicians should inquire about sleep duration in the risk assessment of patients with hypertension.

Short Sleep Duration is an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events in Japanese Hypertensive Patients

PubMed Central

Eguchi, Kazuo; Pickering, Thomas G.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Hoshide, Satoshi; Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

2013-01-01

Context It is not known whether short duration of sleep is a predictor of future cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients. Objective To test the hypothesis that short duration of sleep is independently associated with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Design, Setting, and Participants We performed ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) in 1255 subjects with hypertension (mean age: 70.4±9.9 years) and they were followed for an average of 50±23 months. Short sleep duration was defined as <7.5 hrs (20th percentile). Multivariable Cox hazard models predicting CVD events were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI for short sleep duration. A riser pattern was defined when average nighttime SBP exceeded daytime SBP. Main Outcome Measures The end point was cardiovascular events: stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and sudden cardiac death. Results In multivariable analyses, short duration of sleep (<7.5 hrs) was associated with incident CVD (HR=1.68; 1.06–2.66, P=.03). A synergistic interaction was observed between short sleep duration and the riser pattern (P=.089). When subjects were categorized on the basis of their sleep time and riser/non-riser patterns, the shorter sleep+riser group had a substantially and significantly higher incidence of CVD than the predominant normal sleep+non-riser group (HR=4.43;2.09–9.39, P<0.001), independent of covariates. Conclusions Short duration of sleep is associated with incident CVD risk, and the combination of riser pattern and short duration of sleep that is most strongly predictive of future CVD, independent of ambulatory BP levels. Physicians should inquire about sleep duration in the risk assessment of hypertensive patients. PMID:19001199

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

The upper respiratory pyramid: early factors and later treatment utilization in World Trade Center exposed firefighters.

PubMed

Niles, Justin K; Webber, Mayris P; Liu, Xiaoxue; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B; Cohen, Hillel W; Glaser, Michelle S; Weakley, Jessica; Schwartz, Theresa M; Weiden, Michael D; Nolan, Anna; Aldrich, Thomas K; Glass, Lara; Kelly, Kerry J; Prezant, David J

2014-08-01

We investigated early post 9/11 factors that could predict rhinosinusitis healthcare utilization costs up to 11 years later in 8,079 World Trade Center-exposed rescue/recovery workers. We used bivariate and multivariate analytic techniques to investigate utilization outcomes; we also used a pyramid framework to describe rhinosinusitis healthcare groups at early (by 9/11/2005) and late (by 9/11/2012) time points. Multivariate models showed that pre-9/11/2005 chronic rhinosinusitis diagnoses and nasal symptoms predicted final year healthcare utilization outcomes more than a decade after WTC exposure. The relative proportion of workers on each pyramid level changed significantly during the study period. Diagnoses of chronic rhinosinusitis within 4 years of a major inhalation event only partially explain future healthcare utilization. Exposure intensity, early symptoms and other factors must also be considered when anticipating future healthcare needs. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Upper Respiratory Pyramid: Early Factors and Later Treatment Utilization in World Trade Center Exposed Firefighters

PubMed Central

Niles, Justin K.; Webber, Mayris P.; Liu, Xiaoxue; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B.; Cohen, Hillel W.; Glaser, Michelle S.; Weakley, Jessica; Schwartz, Theresa M.; Weiden, Michael D.; Nolan, Anna; Aldrich, Thomas K.; Glass, Lara; Kelly, Kerry J.; Prezant, David J.

2015-01-01

Background We investigated early post 9/11 factors that could predict rhinosinusitis healthcare utilization costs up to 11 years later in 8,079 World Trade Center-exposed rescue/recovery workers. Methods We used bivariate and multivariate analytic techniques to investigate utilization outcomes; we also used a pyramid framework to describe rhinosinusitis healthcare groups at early (by 9/11/2005) and late (by 9/11/2012) time points. Results Multivariate models showed that pre-9/11/2005 chronic rhinosinusitis diagnoses and nasal symptoms predicted final year healthcare utilization outcomes more than a decade after WTC exposure. The relative proportion of workers on each pyramid level changed significantly during the study period. Conclusions Diagnoses of chronic rhinosinusitis within 4 years of a major inhalation event only partially explain future healthcare utilization. Exposure intensity, early symptoms and other factors must also be considered when anticipating future healthcare needs. PMID:24898816

Dietary patterns associated with overweight and obesity among Brazilian schoolchildren: an approach based on the time-of-day of eating events.

PubMed

Kupek, Emil; Lobo, Adriana S; Leal, Danielle B; Bellisle, France; de Assis, Maria Alice A

2016-12-01

Several studies reported that the timing of eating events has critical implications in the prevention of obesity, but dietary patterns regarding the time-of-day have not been explored in children. The aim of this study was to derive latent food patterns of daily eating events and to examine their associations with overweight/obesity among schoolchildren. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted with 7-10-year-old Brazilian schoolchildren (n 1232) who completed the Previous Day Food Questionnaire, illustrated with twenty-one foods/beverages in six daily eating events. Latent class analysis was used to derive dietary patterns whose association with child weight status was evaluated by multivariate multinomial regression. Four mutually exclusive latent classes of dietary patterns were identified and labelled according to the time-of-day of eating events and food intake probability (FIP): (A) higher FIP only at lunch; (B) lower FIP at all eating events; (C) higher FIP at lunch, afternoon and evening snacks; (D) lower FIP at breakfast and at evening snack, higher FIP at other meals/snacks. The percentages of children within these classes were 32·3, 48·6, 15·1 and 4·0 %, respectively. After controlling for potential confounders, the mean probabilities of obesity for these classes were 6 % (95 % CI 3·0, 9·0), 13 % (95 % CI 9·0, 17·0), 12 % (95 % CI 6·0, 19) and 11 % (95 % CI 5·0, 17·0), in the same order. In conclusion, the children eating traditional lunch with rice and beans as the main meal of the day (class A) had the lowest obesity risk, thus reinforcing the importance of both the food type and the time-of-day of its intake for weight status.

EVENT-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF ANAL SEX ROLES AND SEX DRUG USE AMONG GAY AND BISEXUAL MEN IN VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

PubMed Central

Rich, Ashleigh J; Lachowsky, Nathan J; Cui, Zishan; Sereda, Paul; Lal, Allan; Moore, David M; Hogg, Robert S; Roth, Eric A

2015-01-01

This study analyzed event-level partnership data from a computer-assisted survey of 719 gay and bisexual men (GBM) enrolled in the Momentum Health Study to delineate potential linkages between anal sex roles and so-called “sex drugs”, i.e. erectile dysfunction drugs (EDD), poppers and crystal methamphetamine. Univariable and multivariable analyses using generalized linear mixed models with logit link function with sexual encounters (n=2,514) as the unit of analysis tested four hypotheses: 1) EDD are significantly associated with insertive anal sex roles, 2) poppers are significantly associated with receptive anal sex, 3) both poppers and EDD are significantly associated with anal sexual versatility and, 4) crystal methamphetamine is significantly associated with all anal sex roles. Data for survey respondents and their sexual partners allowed testing these hypotheses for both anal sex partners in the same encounter. Multivariable results supported the first three hypotheses. Crystal methamphetamine was significantly associated with all anal sex roles in the univariable models, but not significant in any multivariable ones. Other multivariable significant variables included attending group sex events, venue where first met, and self-described sexual orientation. Results indicate that GBM sex-drug use behavior features rational decision-making strategies linked to anal sex roles. They also suggest that more research on anal sex roles, particularly versatility, is needed, and that sexual behavior research can benefit from partnership analysis. PMID:26525571

Event-Level Analysis of Anal Sex Roles and Sex Drug Use Among Gay and Bisexual Men in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Rich, Ashleigh J; Lachowsky, Nathan J; Cui, Zishan; Sereda, Paul; Lal, Allan; Moore, David M; Hogg, Robert S; Roth, Eric A

2016-08-01

This study analyzed event-level partnership data from a computer-assisted survey of 719 gay and bisexual men (GBM) enrolled in the Momentum Health Study to delineate potential linkages between anal sex roles and the so-called "sex drugs," i.e., erectile dysfunction drugs (EDD), poppers, and crystal methamphetamine. Univariable and multivariable analyses using generalized linear mixed models with logit link function with sexual encounters (n = 2514) as the unit of analysis tested four hypotheses: (1) EDD are significantly associated with insertive anal sex roles, (2) poppers are significantly associated with receptive anal sex, (3) both poppers and EDD are significantly associated with anal sexual versatility, and (4) crystal methamphetamine is significantly associated with all anal sex roles. Data for survey respondents and their sexual partners allowed testing these hypotheses for both anal sex partners in the same encounter. Multivariable results supported the first three hypotheses. Crystal methamphetamine was significantly associated with all anal sex roles in the univariable models, but not significant in any multivariable ones. Other multivariable significant variables included attending group sex events, venue where first met, and self-described sexual orientation. Results indicate that GBM sex-drug use behavior features rational decision-making strategies linked to anal sex roles. They also suggest that more research on anal sex roles, particularly versatility, is needed, and that sexual behavior research can benefit from partnership analysis.

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI).

PubMed

Rizzi, Marco; Ravasio, Veronica; Carobbio, Alessandra; Mattucci, Irene; Crapis, Massimo; Stellini, Roberto; Pasticci, Maria Bruna; Chinello, Pierangelo; Falcone, Marco; Grossi, Paolo; Barbaro, Francesco; Pan, Angelo; Viale, Pierluigi; Durante-Mangoni, Emanuele

2014-04-29

Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery.

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

Community-Based Management of Child Malnutrition in Zambia: HIV/AIDS Infection and Other Risk Factors on Child Survival.

PubMed

Moramarco, Stefania; Amerio, Giulia; Ciarlantini, Clarice; Chipoma, Jean Kasengele; Simpungwe, Matilda Kakungu; Nielsen-Saines, Karin; Palombi, Leonardo; Buonomo, Ersilia

2016-07-01

(1) BACKGROUND: Supplementary feeding programs (SFPs) are effective in the community-based treatment of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and prevention of severe acute malnutrition (SAM); (2) METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on a sample of 1266 Zambian malnourished children assisted from 2012 to 2014 in the Rainbow Project SFPs. Nutritional status was evaluated according to WHO/Unicef methodology. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression to identify the main predictors of mortality. In addition, a time-to event analysis was performed to identify predictors of failure and time to cure events; (3) RESULTS: The analysis included 858 malnourished children (19 months ± 9.4; 49.9% males). Program outcomes met international standards with a better performance for MAM compared to SAM. Cox regression identified SAM (3.8; 2.1-6.8), HIV infection (3.1; 1.7-5.5), and WAZ <-3 (3.1; 1.6-5.7) as predictors of death. Time to event showed 80% of children recovered by SAM/MAM at 24 weeks. (4) CONCLUSIONS: Preventing deterioration of malnutrition, coupled to early detection of HIV/AIDS with adequate antiretroviral treatment, and extending the duration of feeding supplementation, could be crucial elements for ensuring full recovery and improve child survival in malnourished Zambian children.

Safety of endoscopic removal of self-expandable stents after treatment of benign esophageal diseases.

PubMed

van Halsema, Emo E; Wong Kee Song, Louis M; Baron, Todd H; Siersema, Peter D; Vleggaar, Frank P; Ginsberg, Gregory G; Shah, Pari M; Fleischer, David E; Ratuapli, Shiva K; Fockens, Paul; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Rando, Giacomo; Repici, Alessandro; van Hooft, Jeanin E

2013-01-01

Temporary placement of self-expandable stents has been increasingly used for the management of benign esophageal diseases. To evaluate the safety of endoscopic removal of esophageal self-expandable stents placed for the treatment of benign esophageal diseases. Multicenter retrospective study. Six tertiary care centers in the United States and Europe. A total of 214 patients with benign esophageal diseases undergoing endoscopic stent removal. Endoscopic stent removal. Endoscopic techniques for stent removal, time to stent removal, and adverse events related to stent removal. A total of 214 patients underwent a total of 329 stent extractions. Stents were mainly placed for refractory strictures (49.2%) and fistulae (49.8%). Of the removed stents, 52% were fully covered self-expandable metal stents (FCSEMSs), 28.6% were partially covered self-expandable metal stents (PCSEMSs), and 19.5% were self-expandable plastic stents. A total of 35 (10.6%) procedure-related adverse events were reported, including 7 (2.1%) major adverse events. Multivariate analysis revealed that use of PCSEMSs (P < .001) was a risk factor for adverse events during stent removal. Favorable factors for successful stent removal were FCSEMSs (P ≤ .012) and stent migration (P = .010). No significant associations were found for stent indwelling time (P = .145) and stent embedding (P = .194). Retrospective analysis, only tertiary care centers. With an acceptable major adverse event rate of 2.1%, esophageal stent removal in the setting of benign disease was found to be a safe and feasible procedure. FCSEMSs were more successfully removed than self-expandable plastic stents and PCSEMSs. Adverse events caused by stent removal were not time dependent. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of solar-geomagnetic activity during hospital admission on coronary events within 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndromes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vencloviene, J.; Babarskiene, R.; Milvidaite, I.; Kubilius, R.; Stasionyte, J.

2013-12-01

Some evidence indicates the deterioration of the cardiovascular system during space storms. It is plausible that the space weather conditions during and after hospital admission may affect the risk of coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed the data of 1400 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0-3 days before and after hospital admission and the risk of cardiovascular death (CAD), non-fatal ACS, and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during a period of 1 year; the evaluation was based on the multivariate logistic model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, GS occurring in conjunction with SF 1 day before admission increased the risk of CAD by over 2.5 times. GS 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the risk of CAD and CABG by over 2.8 times. The risk of CABG increased by over 2 times in patients admitted during the day of GS and 1 day after SPE. The risk of ACS was by over 1.63 times higher for patients admitted 1 day before or after solar flares.

Detailed analysis of periprocedural strokes in patients undergoing intracranial stenting in Stenting and Aggressive Medical Management for Preventing Recurrent Stroke in Intracranial Stenosis (SAMMPRIS).

PubMed

Fiorella, David; Derdeyn, Colin P; Lynn, Michael J; Barnwell, Stanley L; Hoh, Brian L; Levy, Elad I; Harrigan, Mark R; Klucznik, Richard P; McDougall, Cameron G; Pride, G Lee; Zaidat, Osama O; Lutsep, Helmi L; Waters, Michael F; Hourihane, J Maurice; Alexandrov, Andrei V; Chiu, David; Clark, Joni M; Johnson, Mark D; Torbey, Michel T; Rumboldt, Zoran; Cloft, Harry J; Turan, Tanya N; Lane, Bethany F; Janis, L Scott; Chimowitz, Marc I

2012-10-01

Enrollment in the Stenting and Aggressive Medical Management for Preventing Recurrent stroke in Intracranial Stenosis (SAMMPRIS) trial was halted due to the high risk of stroke or death within 30 days of enrollment in the percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting arm relative to the medical arm. This analysis focuses on the patient and procedural factors that may have been associated with periprocedural cerebrovascular events in the trial. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate whether patient and procedural variables were associated with cerebral ischemic or hemorrhagic events occurring within 30 days of enrollment (termed periprocedural) in the percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting arm. Of 224 patients randomized to percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting, 213 underwent angioplasty alone (n=5) or with stenting (n=208). Of these, 13 had hemorrhagic strokes (7 parenchymal, 6 subarachnoid), 19 had ischemic stroke, and 2 had cerebral infarcts with temporary signs within the periprocedural period. Ischemic events were categorized as perforator occlusions (13), embolic (4), mixed perforator and embolic (2), and delayed stent occlusion (2). Multivariate analyses showed that higher percent stenosis, lower modified Rankin score, and clopidogrel load associated with an activated clotting time above the target range were associated (P ≤ 0.05) with hemorrhagic stroke. Nonsmoking, basilar artery stenosis, diabetes, and older age were associated (P ≤ 0.05) with ischemic events. Periprocedural strokes in SAMMPRIS had multiple causes with the most common being perforator occlusion. Although risk factors for periprocedural strokes could be identified, excluding patients with these features from undergoing percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting to lower the procedural risk would limit percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting to a small subset of patients. Moreover, given the small number of events, the present data should be used for hypothesis generation rather than to guide patient selection in clinical practice. Clinical Trial Registration Information- URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT00576693.

18F-Fluoride PET/CT tumor burden quantification predicts survival in breast cancer.

PubMed

Brito, Ana E; Santos, Allan; Sasse, André Deeke; Cabello, Cesar; Oliveira, Paulo; Mosci, Camila; Souza, Tiago; Amorim, Barbara; Lima, Mariana; Ramos, Celso D; Etchebehere, Elba

2017-05-30

In bone-metastatic breast cancer patients, there are no current imaging biomarkers to identify which patients have worst prognosis. The purpose of our study was to investigate if skeletal tumor burden determined by 18F-Fluoride PET/CT correlates with clinical outcomes and may help define prognosis throughout the course of the disease. Bone metastases were present in 49 patients. On multivariable analysis, skeletal tumor burden was significantly and independently associated with overall survival (p < 0.0001) and progression free-survival (p < 0.0001). The simple presence of bone metastases was associated with time to bone event (p = 0.0448). We quantified the skeletal tumor burden on 18F-Fluoride PET/CT images of 107 female breast cancer patients (40 for primary staging and the remainder for restaging after therapy). Clinical parameters, primary tumor characteristics and skeletal tumor burden were correlated to overall survival, progression free-survival and time to bone event. The median follow-up time was 19.5 months. 18F-Fluoride PET/CT skeletal tumor burden is a strong independent prognostic imaging biomarker in breast cancer patients.

Description of veterinary events and risk factors for fatality in National Hunt flat racing Thoroughbreds in Great Britain (2000-2013).

PubMed

Allen, S E; Rosanowski, S M; Stirk, A J; Verheyen, K L P

2017-11-01

No large-scale studies have described veterinary events occurring in National Hunt (NH) flat racing or investigated risk factors for fatality in this race type. To describe injuries and conditions requiring veterinary attendance on race day and to determine risk factors for racehorse fatality in NH flat racing in Great Britain. Retrospective cohort study (2000-2013). Information from all NH flat races held over the study period, including horse, race and veterinary event report details, was combined. Veterinary events were described by type and anatomical structure(s) affected. Incidence per 1000 starts were calculated for all veterinary events and by event group, and stratified by certain horse- and race-level variables. Risk factors for fatality were determined using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Over the 14-year study period, 544 veterinary events were recorded, providing an overall incidence of 13.0 events per 1000 starts. The most common events were bone injuries (23.5%) and tendon or ligament injuries (16.4%). A fatal outcome was recorded for 117 horses (21.5% of all events), resulting in an incidence of 2.9 deaths per 1000 starts. Odds of fatality were 4.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.59-11.82; P = 0.02) times higher in races restricted to conditional jockeys compared to those that were not. Horses starting in their first race experienced 1.44 (95% CI 1.00-2.08; P = 0.05) times the odds of death compared to those that had raced before. Classification of veterinary events frequently relied upon presumptive diagnosis. This study provides a benchmark for the ongoing surveillance of veterinary events in NH flat racing. These results support the phasing out of NH flat races restricted to conditional jockeys and highlight the need for further work to establish why NH flat racing Thoroughbreds competing in their first race are at increased risk for death. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

Effects of stressful life events in young black men with high blood pressure.

PubMed

Han, Hae-Ra; Kim, Miyong T; Rose, Linda; Dennison, Cheryl; Bone, Lee; Hill, Martha N

2006-01-01

1) To describe stressful life events as experienced by a sample of young Black men with high blood pressure (HBP) living in inner-city Baltimore, Maryland; and 2) to examine the effect of cumulative stressful life events on substance use, depression, and quality of life. Data were obtained over 48 months by interview from 210 men in an HBP management study. Stressors repeatedly occurring over time included death of family member or close friend (65.2%), having a new family member (32.9%), change in residence (31.4%), difficulty finding a job (24.3%), and fired or laid off from work (17.6%). Involvement with crime or legal matters was reported at least twice during the 48 months by 33.3% of men. When a cumulative stressful life events score was calculated by summing the number of events experienced at 6-month points over 48 months and tested for its relationship with the health outcomes, the findings of multivariate analyses revealed significant associations between cumulative life stressors and depression and quality of life. No significant relationship was found between stressful life events and substance use. The results suggest that cumulative stressful life events have a negative effect on mental health and quality of life in young Black men with HBP. Future study should focus on developing interventions to assist individuals in managing distress related to stressful events with necessary community resources.

Final Results of the OPERA Experiment on ντ Appearance in the CNGS Neutrino Beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agafonova, N.; Alexandrov, A.; Anokhina, A.; Aoki, S.; Ariga, A.; Ariga, T.; Bertolin, A.; Bozza, C.; Brugnera, R.; Buonaura, A.; Buontempo, S.; Chernyavskiy, M.; Chukanov, A.; Consiglio, L.; D'Ambrosio, N.; de Lellis, G.; de Serio, M.; Del Amo Sanchez, P.; di Crescenzo, A.; di Ferdinando, D.; di Marco, N.; Dmitrievsky, S.; Dracos, M.; Duchesneau, D.; Dusini, S.; Dzhatdoev, T.; Ebert, J.; Ereditato, A.; Favier, J.; Fini, R. A.; Fornari, F.; Fukuda, T.; Galati, G.; Garfagnini, A.; Gentile, V.; Goldberg, J.; Gorbunov, S.; Gornushkin, Y.; Grella, G.; Guler, A. M.; Gustavino, C.; Hagner, C.; Hara, T.; Hayakawa, T.; Hollnagel, A.; Ishiguro, K.; Iuliano, A.; Jakovcic, K.; Jollet, C.; Kamiscioglu, C.; Kamiscioglu, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kitagawa, N.; Klicek, B.; Kodama, K.; Komatsu, M.; Kose, U.; Kreslo, I.; Laudisio, F.; Lauria, A.; Ljubicic, A.; Longhin, A.; Loverre, P.; Malenica, M.; Malgin, A.; Mandrioli, G.; Matsuo, T.; Matveev, V.; Mauri, N.; Medinaceli, E.; Meregaglia, A.; Mikado, S.; Miyanishi, M.; Mizutani, F.; Monacelli, P.; Montesi, M. C.; Morishima, K.; Muciaccia, M. T.; Naganawa, N.; Naka, T.; Nakamura, M.; Nakano, T.; Niwa, K.; Ogawa, S.; Okateva, N.; Olchevsky, A.; Ozaki, K.; Paoloni, A.; Paparella, L.; Park, B. D.; Pasqualini, L.; Pastore, A.; Patrizii, L.; Pessard, H.; Pistillo, C.; Podgrudkov, D.; Polukhina, N.; Pozzato, M.; Pupilli, F.; Roda, M.; Roganova, T.; Rokujo, H.; Rosa, G.; Ryazhskaya, O.; Sadovsky, A.; Sato, O.; Schembri, A.; Shakiryanova, I.; Shchedrina, T.; Shibayama, E.; Shibuya, H.; Shiraishi, T.; Simone, S.; Sirignano, C.; Sirri, G.; Sotnikov, A.; Spinetti, M.; Stanco, L.; Starkov, N.; Stellacci, S. M.; Stipcevic, M.; Strolin, P.; Takahashi, S.; Tenti, M.; Terranova, F.; Tioukov, V.; Tufanli, S.; Ustyuzhanin, A.; Vasina, S.; Vilain, P.; Voevodina, E.; Votano, L.; Vuilleumier, J. L.; Wilquet, G.; Wonsak, B.; Yoon, C. S.; Opera Collaboration

2018-05-01

The OPERA experiment was designed to study νμ→ντ oscillations in the appearance mode in the CERN to Gran Sasso Neutrino beam (CNGS). In this Letter, we report the final analysis of the full data sample collected between 2008 and 2012, corresponding to 17.97 ×1019 protons on target. Selection criteria looser than in previous analyses have produced ten ντ candidate events, thus reducing the statistical uncertainty in the measurement of the oscillation parameters and of ντ properties. A multivariate approach for event identification has been applied to the candidate events and the discovery of ντ appearance is confirmed with an improved significance level of 6.1 σ . |Δ m322| has been measured, in appearance mode, with an accuracy of 20%. The measurement of the ντ charged-current cross section, for the first time with a negligible contamination from ν¯τ, and the first direct evidence for the ντ lepton number are also reported.

[Relevant factors of early puberty timing in urban primary schools in Chongqing].

PubMed

Luo, Yan; Liu, Qin; Wen, Yi; Liu, Shudan; Lei, Xun; Wang, Hong

2016-05-01

To investigate the status of puberty timing and relevant factors of early puberty timing in children from grade one to four in urban primary schools of Chongqing. According to the purposive sample method, four urban primary schools in Chongqing were selected and of which 1471 children from grade one to four who have obtained informed consent were recruited. Questionnaire survey on social-demographic characteristics and family environment (e.g., age, parents' relationship, diet and lifestyle, etc), and Pubertal Development Scale (PDS) survey and physical examination (measurements of height, weight, pubertal development status, etc) were conducted. P25, P50, P75 ages of each important pubertal event were calculated by probit regression. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to analyze relevant factors. The detection rate of early puberty timing was 17.7%, and the median ages of the onset of breast and testicular development were 10.77 and 11.48 years old, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that early puberty timing occurred more likely in girls than in boys (OR = 0.561, 95% CI 0.406-0.774), and bad relationship between parents (OR = 1.320, 95% CI 1.007-1.729) and hair-products-use (OR = 1.685, 95%, CI 1.028-2.762) were risk factors of early puberty timing. Early onset of puberty in urban Chongqing is still exist. Gender, parents' relationship, and hair-products-use have an essential impact on early puberty timing.

Storm Event Suspended Sediment-Discharge Hysteresis and Controls in Agricultural Watersheds: Implications for Watershed Scale Sediment Management.

PubMed

Sherriff, Sophie C; Rowan, John S; Fenton, Owen; Jordan, Philip; Melland, Alice R; Mellander, Per-Erik; hUallacháin, Daire Ó

2016-02-16

Within agricultural watersheds suspended sediment-discharge hysteresis during storm events is commonly used to indicate dominant sediment sources and pathways. However, availability of high-resolution data, qualitative metrics, longevity of records, and simultaneous multiwatershed analyses has limited the efficacy of hysteresis as a sediment management tool. This two year study utilizes a quantitative hysteresis index from high-resolution suspended sediment and discharge data to assess fluctuations in sediment source location, delivery mechanisms and export efficiency in three intensively farmed watersheds during events over time. Flow-weighted event sediment export was further considered using multivariate techniques to delineate rainfall, stream hydrology, and antecedent moisture controls on sediment origins. Watersheds with low permeability (moderately- or poorly drained soils) with good surface hydrological connectivity, therefore, had contrasting hysteresis due to source location (hillslope versus channel bank). The well-drained watershed with reduced connectivity exported less sediment but, when watershed connectivity was established, the largest event sediment load of all watersheds occurred. Event sediment export was elevated in arable watersheds when low groundcover was coupled with high connectivity, whereas in the grassland watershed, export was attributed to wetter weather only. Hysteresis analysis successfully indicated contrasting seasonality, connectivity and source availability and is a useful tool to identify watershed specific sediment management practices.

Vasovagal reactions in whole blood donors at 3 REDS-II blood centers in Brazil

PubMed Central

Goncalez, T. T.; Sabino, E. C.; Schlumpf, K.S.; Wright, D.J.; Leao, S.; Sampaio, D.; Takecian, P. L.; Carneiro-Proietti, AB; Murphy, E.; Busch, M.; Custer, B.

2013-01-01

Background In Brazil little is known about adverse reactions during donation and the donor characteristics that may be associated with such events. Donors are offered snacks and fluids prior to donating and are required to consume a light meal after donation. For these reasons the frequency of reactions may be different than those observed in other countries. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted of eligible whole blood donors at three large blood centers located in Brazil between July 2007 and December 2009. Vasovagal reactions (VVRs) along with donor demographic and biometric data were collected. Reactions were defined as any presyncopal or syncopal event during the donation process. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of VVRs. Results Of 724,861 donor presentations, 16,129 (2.2%) VVRs were recorded. Rates varied substantially between the three centers: 53, 290 and 381 per 10,000 donations in Recife, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, respectively. Although the reaction rates varied, the donor characteristics associated with VVRs were similar [younger age (18–29), replacement donors, first time donors, low estimated blood volume (EBV)]. In multivariable analysis controlling for differences between the donor populations in each city younger age, first-time donor status and lower EBV were the factors most associated with reactions. Conclusion Factors associated with VVRs in other locations are also evident in Brazil. The difference in VVR rates between the three centers might be due to different procedures for identifying and reporting the reactions. Potential interventions to reduce the risk of reactions in Brazil should be considered. PMID:22073941

Black liquor and the hangover effect: fish assemblage recovery dynamics following a pulse disturbance

PubMed Central

Piller, Kyle R; Geheber, Aaron D

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic perturbations impact aquatic systems causing wide-ranging responses, from assemblage restructuring to assemblage recovery. Previous studies indicate the duration and intensity of disturbances play a role in the dynamics of assemblage recovery. In August 2011, the Pearl River, United States, was subjected to a weak black liquor spill from a paper mill which resulted in substantial loss of fish in a large stretch of the main channel. We quantified resilience and recovery of fish assemblage structure in the impacted area following the event. We compared downstream (impacted) assemblages to upstream (unimpacted) assemblages to determine initial impacts on structure. Additionally, we incorporated historic fish collections (1988–2011) to examine impacts on assemblage structure across broad temporal scales. Based on NMDS, upstream and downstream sites generally showed similar assemblage structure across sample periods with the exception of the 2 months postdischarge, where upstream and downstream sites visually differed. Multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) indicated significant seasonal variation among samples, but found no significant interaction between impacted and unimpacted assemblages following the discharge event. However, multivariate dispersion (MVDISP) showed greater variance among assemblage structure following the discharge event. These results suggest that 2 months following the disturbance represent a time period of stochasticity in regard to assemblage structure dynamics, and this was followed by rapid recovery. We term this dynamic the “hangover effect” as it represents the time frame from the cessation of the perturbation to the assemblage's return to predisturbance conditions. The availability and proximity of tributaries and upstream refugia, which were not affected by the disturbance, as well as the rapid recovery of abiotic parameters likely played a substantial role in assemblage recovery. This study not only demonstrates rapid recovery in an aquatic system, but further demonstrates the value of continuous, long-term, data collections which enhance our understanding of assemblage dynamics. PMID:26120432

Hypertension Control in Adults With Diabetes Mellitus and Recurrent Cardiovascular Events: Global Results From the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes With Sitagliptin.

PubMed

Navar, Ann Marie; Gallup, Dianne S; Lokhnygina, Yuliya; Green, Jennifer B; McGuire, Darren K; Armstrong, Paul W; Buse, John B; Engel, Samuel S; Lachin, John M; Standl, Eberhard; Van de Werf, Frans; Holman, Rury R; Peterson, Eric D

2017-11-01

Systolic blood pressure (SBP) treatment targets for adults with diabetes mellitus remain unclear. SBP levels among 12 275 adults with diabetes mellitus, prior cardiovascular disease, and treated hypertension were evaluated in the TECOS (Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes With Sitagliptin) randomized trial of sitagliptin versus placebo. The association between baseline SBP and recurrent cardiovascular disease was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling with restricted cubic splines, adjusting for clinical characteristics. Kaplan-Meier curves by baseline SBP were created to assess time to cardiovascular disease and 2 potential hypotension-related adverse events: worsening kidney function and fractures. The association between time-updated SBP and outcomes was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Overall, 42.2% of adults with diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension had an SBP ≥140 mm Hg. The association between SBP and cardiovascular disease risk was U shaped, with a nadir ≈130 mm Hg. When the analysis was restricted to those with baseline SBP of 110 to 150 mm Hg, the adjusted association between SBP and cardiovascular disease risk was flat (hazard ratio per 10-mm Hg increase, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.02). There was no association between SBP and risk of fracture. Above 150 mm Hg, higher SBP was associated with increasing risk of worsening kidney function (hazard ratio per 10-mm Hg increase, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.18). Many patients with diabetes mellitus have uncontrolled hypertension. The U-shaped association between SBP and cardiovascular disease events was largely driven by those with very high or low SBP, with no difference in cardiovascular disease risk between 110 and 150 mm Hg. Lower SBP was not associated with higher risks of fractures or worsening kidney function. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A Population-Based Study of the Prevalence and Correlates of Self-Harm in Juvenile Detention

PubMed Central

Hildahl, Keith; Katz, Laurence Y.; Bolton, James; Sareen, Jitender

2016-01-01

Background Suicide is the number one cause of death among incarcerated youth. We examined the demographic and forensic risk factors for self-harm in youth in juvenile detention using a Canadian provincial correctional database. Method We analyzed data from de-identified youth aged 12 to 18 at the time of their offense who were in custody in a Manitoba youth correctional facility between January 1, 2005 and December 30, 2010 (N = 5,102). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses determined the association between staff-identified self-harm events in custody and demographic and custodial variables. Time to the event was examined based on the admission date and date of event. Results Demographic variables associated with self-harm included female sex, lower educational achievement, older age, and child welfare involvement. Custodial variables associated with self-harm included higher criminal severity profiles, younger age at first incarceration, longer sentence length, disruptive institutional behavior, and a history of attempting escape. Youth identified at entry as being at risk for suicide were more likely to self-harm. Events tended to occur earlier in the custodial admission. Interpretation Self-harm events tended to occur within the first 3 months of an admission stay. Youth with more serious offenses and disruptive behaviors were more likely to self-harm. Individuals with problematic custodial profiles were more likely to self-harm. Suicide screening identified youth at risk for self-harm. Strategies to identify and help youth at risk are needed. PMID:26760497

CA1 subfield contributions to memory integration and inference

PubMed Central

Schlichting, Margaret L.; Zeithamova, Dagmar; Preston, Alison R.

2014-01-01

The ability to combine information acquired at different times to make novel inferences is a powerful function of episodic memory. One perspective suggests that by retrieving related knowledge during new experiences, existing memories can be linked to the new, overlapping information as it is encoded. The resulting memory traces would thus incorporate content across event boundaries, representing important relationships among items encountered during separate experiences. While prior work suggests that the hippocampus is involved in linking memories experienced at different times, the involvement of specific subfields in this process remains unknown. Using both univariate and multivariate analyses of high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we localized this specialized encoding mechanism to human CA1. Specifically, right CA1 responses during encoding of events that overlapped with prior experience predicted subsequent success on a test requiring inferences about the relationships among events. Furthermore, we employed neural pattern similarity analysis to show that patterns of activation evoked during overlapping event encoding were later reinstated in CA1 during successful inference. The reinstatement of CA1 patterns during inference was specific to those trials that were performed quickly and accurately, consistent with the notion that linking memories during learning facilitates novel judgments. These analyses provide converging evidence that CA1 plays a unique role in encoding overlapping events and highlight the dynamic interactions between hippocampal-mediated encoding and retrieval processes. More broadly, our data reflect the adaptive nature of episodic memories, in which representations are derived across events in anticipation of future judgments. PMID:24888442

Biological and socio-cultural factors during the school years predicting women’s lifetime educational attainment

PubMed Central

Hendrick, C. Emily; Cohen, Alison K.; Deardorff, Julianna

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Lifetime educational attainment is an important predictor of health and well-being for women in the United States. In the current study, we examine the roles of socio-cultural factors in youth and an understudied biological life event, pubertal timing, in predicting women’s lifetime educational attainment. METHODS Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (N = 3889), we conducted sequential multivariate linear regression analyses to investigate the influences of macro-level and family-level socio-cultural contextual factors in youth (region of country, urbanicity, race/ethnicity, year of birth, household composition, mother’s education, mother’s age at first birth) and early menarche, a marker of early pubertal development, on women’s educational attainment after age 24. RESULTS Pubertal timing and all socio-cultural factors in youth, other than year of birth, predicted women’s lifetime educational attainment in bivariate models. Family factors had the strongest associations. When family factors were added to multivariate models, geographic region in youth and pubertal timing were no longer significant. CONCLUSION Our findings provide additional evidence that family factors should be considered when developing comprehensive and inclusive interventions in childhood and adolescence to promote lifetime educational attainment among girls. PMID:26830508

Differences in baseline factors and survival between normocapnia, compensated respiratory acidosis and decompensated respiratory acidosis in COPD exacerbation: A pilot study.

PubMed

Lun, Chung-Tat; Tsui, Miranda S N; Cheng, Suet-Lai; Chan, Veronica L; Leung, Wah-Shing; Cheung, Alice P S; Chu, Chung-Ming

2016-01-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experiencing acute exacerbation (AE-COPD) with decompensated respiratory acidosis are known to have poor outcomes in terms of recurrent respiratory failure and death. However, the outcomes of AE-COPD patients with compensated respiratory acidosis are not known. We performed a 1-year prospective, single-centre, cohort study in patients surviving the index admission for AE-COPD to compare baseline factors between groups with normocapnia, compensated respiratory acidosis and decompensated respiratory acidosis. Survival analysis was done to examine time to readmissions, life-threatening events and death. A total of 250 patients fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria were recruited and 245 patients were analysed. Compared with normocapnia, both compensated and decompensated respiratory acidosis are associated with lower FEV1 % (P < 0.001), higher GOLD stage (P = 0.003, <0.001) and higher BODE index (P = 0.038, 0.001) and a shorter time to life-threatening events (P < 0.001). Comparing compensated and decompensated respiratory acidosis, there was no difference in FEV1 (% predicted) (P = 0.15), GOLD stage (P = 0.091), BODE index (P = 0.158) or time to life-threatening events (P = 0.301). High PaCO2 level (P = 0.002) and previous use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in acute setting (P < 0.001) are predictive factors of future life-threatening events by multivariate analysis. Compared with normocapnia, both compensated and decompensated respiratory acidosis are associated with poorer lung function and higher risk of future life-threatening events. High PaCO2 level and past history of NIV use in acute settings were predictive factors for future life-threatening events. Compensated respiratory acidosis warrants special attention and optimization of medical therapy as it poses risk of life-threatening events. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Reporting of Cardiovascular Medical Device Adverse Events to Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency, Japan☆

PubMed Central

Handa, Nobuhiro; Ishii, Kensuke; Matsui, Yutaka; Ando, Yuki

2015-01-01

Background Marketing authorization holders (MAHs) are obligated to report adverse events (AEs) within 15 days (some cases 30 days) to the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) of Japan. Methods To analyze the timeliness of AE reporting to the PMDA, 6610 reports for five categories of cardiovascular devices were retrieved. Two durations were calculated: (1) time from the date the AE occurred to that when the MAH captured it (DOC: days); and (2) time from the date of MAH capture to that of MAH report (DCR: days). Number of DOC > 15 days (DOC15) and delayed reports (DCR > 15 or 30 days) were also calculated. Results AEs included 9.2% deaths and 7.5% non-recoveries. DOC15 and delayed reports were 51.0% and 10.9%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, DOC15 was associated with foreign AE, device category, MAH, patient outcome, event category, and AE that had to be reported within 15 or 30 days (AE15/30). Delayed report was associated with device category, MAH, patient outcome, event category, and AE15/30. Comments Although Japanese MAHs complied with the obligation to report AEs, they often failed to share AEs with healthcare providers. Registry may be a potential solution, although the cooperation of healthcare providers to input data is essential. PMID:26501120

Unchanged Levels of Soluble CD14 and IL-6 Over Time Predict Serious Non-AIDS Events in HIV-1-Infected People

PubMed Central

Sunil, Meena; Nigalye, Maitreyee; Somasunderam, Anoma; Martinez, Maria Laura; Yu, Xiaoying; Arduino, Roberto C.; Bell, Tanvir K.

2016-01-01

Abstract HIV-1-infected persons have increased risk of serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs) despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Increased circulating levels of soluble CD14 (sCD14), soluble CD163 (sCD163), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at a single time point have been associated with SNAEs. However, whether changes in these biomarker levels predict SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons is unknown. We hypothesized that greater decreases in inflammatory biomarkers would be associated with fewer SNAEs. We identified 39 patients with SNAEs, including major cardiovascular events, end stage renal disease, decompensated cirrhosis, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and death of unknown cause, and age- and sex-matched HIV-1-infected controls. sCD14, sCD163, and IL-6 were measured at study enrollment (T1) and proximal to the event (T2) or equivalent duration in matched controls. Over ∼34 months, unchanged rather than decreasing levels of sCD14 and IL-6 predicted SNAEs. Older age and current illicit substance abuse, but not HCV coinfection, were associated with SNAEs. In a multivariate analysis, older age, illicit substance use, and unchanged IL-6 levels remained significantly associated with SNAEs. Thus, the trajectories of sCD14 and IL-6 levels predict SNAEs. Interventions to decrease illicit substance use may decrease the risk of SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons. PMID:27344921

Using Boosting Decision Trees in Gravitational Wave Searches triggered by Gamma-ray Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuraw, Sarah; LIGO Collaboration

2015-04-01

The search for gravitational wave bursts requires the ability to distinguish weak signals from background detector noise. Gravitational wave bursts are characterized by their transient nature, making them particularly difficult to detect as they are similar to non-Gaussian noise fluctuations in the detector. The Boosted Decision Tree method is a powerful machine learning algorithm which uses Multivariate Analysis techniques to explore high-dimensional data sets in order to distinguish between gravitational wave signal and background detector noise. It does so by training with known noise events and simulated gravitational wave events. The method is tested using waveform models and compared with the performance of the standard gravitational wave burst search pipeline for Gamma-ray Bursts. It is shown that the method is able to effectively distinguish between signal and background events under a variety of conditions and over multiple Gamma-ray Burst events. This example demonstrates the usefulness and robustness of the Boosted Decision Tree and Multivariate Analysis techniques as a detection method for gravitational wave bursts. LIGO, UMass, PREP, NEGAP.

Incidence of cardiovascular events and associated risk factors in kidney transplant patients: a competing risks survival analysis.

PubMed

Seoane-Pillado, María Teresa; Pita-Fernández, Salvador; Valdés-Cañedo, Francisco; Seijo-Bestilleiro, Rocio; Pértega-Díaz, Sonia; Fernández-Rivera, Constantino; Alonso-Hernández, Ángel; González-Martín, Cristina; Balboa-Barreiro, Vanesa

2017-03-07

The high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among the renal transplant population accounts for increased mortality. The aim of this study is to determine the incidence of cardiovascular events and factors associated with cardiovascular events in these patients. An observational ambispective follow-up study of renal transplant recipients (n = 2029) in the health district of A Coruña (Spain) during the period 1981-2011 was completed. Competing risk survival analysis methods were applied to estimate the cumulative incidence of developing cardiovascular events over time and to identify which characteristics were associated with the risk of these events. Post-transplant cardiovascular events are defined as the presence of myocardial infarction, invasive coronary artery therapy, cerebral vascular events, new-onset angina, congestive heart failure, rhythm disturbances, peripheral vascular disease and cardiovascular disease and death. The cause of death was identified through the medical history and death certificate using ICD9 (390-459, except: 427.5, 435, 446, 459.0). The mean age of patients at the time of transplantation was 47.0 ± 14.2 years; 62% were male. 16.5% had suffered some cardiovascular disease prior to transplantation and 9.7% had suffered a cardiovascular event. The mean follow-up period for the patients with cardiovascular event was 3.5 ± 4.3 years. Applying competing risk methodology, it was observed that the accumulated incidence of the event was 5.0% one year after transplantation, 8.1% after five years, and 11.9% after ten years. After applying multivariate models, the variables with an independent effect for predicting cardiovascular events are: male sex, age of recipient, previous cardiovascular disorders, pre-transplant smoking and post-transplant diabetes. This study makes it possible to determine in kidney transplant patients, taking into account competitive events, the incidence of post-transplant cardiovascular events and the risk factors of these events. Modifiable risk factors are identified, owing to which, changes in said factors would have a bearing of the incidence of events.

Cardiovascular risks associated with abacavir and tenofovir exposure in HIV-infected persons.

PubMed

Choi, Andy I; Vittinghoff, Eric; Deeks, Steven G; Weekley, Cristin C; Li, Yongmei; Shlipak, Michael G

2011-06-19

Abacavir use has been associated with cardiovascular risk, but it is unknown whether this association may be partly explained by patients with kidney disease being preferentially treated with abacavir to avoid tenofovir. Our objective was to compare associations of abacavir and tenofovir with cardiovascular risks in HIV-infected veterans. Cohort study of 10 931 HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in the Veterans Health Administration from 1997 to 2007, using proportional hazards survival regression. Primary predictors were exposure to abacavir or tenofovir within the past 6 months, compared with no exposure to these drugs, respectively. Outcomes were time to first atherosclerotic cardiovascular event, defined as coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral arterial disease; and time to incident heart failure. Over 60 588 person-years of observation, there were 501 cardiovascular and 194 heart failure events. Age-standardized event rates among abacavir and tenofovir users were 12.5 versus 8.2 per 1000 person-years for cardiovascular disease, and 3.9 and 3.7 per 1000 person-years for heart failure, respectively. In multivariate-adjusted models, including time-updated measurements of kidney function, recent abacavir use was significantly associated with incident cardiovascular disease [hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-2.04]; the association was similar but nonsignificant for heart failure (1.45, 0.85-2.47). In contrast, recent tenofovir use was significantly associated with heart failure (1.82, 1.02-3.24), but not with cardiovascular events (0.78, 0.52-1.16). Recent abacavir exposure was independently associated with increased risk for cardiovascular events. We also observed an association between recent tenofovir exposure and heart failure, which needs to be confirmed in future studies.

Cardiovascular risks associated with abacavir and tenofovir exposure in HIV-infected persons

PubMed Central

Choi, Andy I.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Deeks, Steven G.; Weekley, Cristin C.; Li, Yongmei; Shlipak, Michael G.

2014-01-01

Objective Abacavir use has been associated with cardiovascular risk, but it is unknown whether this association may be partly explained by patients with kidney disease being preferentially treated with abacavir to avoid tenofovir. Our objective was to compare associations of abacavir and tenofovir with cardiovascular risks in HIV-infected veterans. Design Cohort study of 10 931 HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in the Veterans Health Administration from 1997 to 2007, using proportional hazards survival regression. Methods Primary predictors were exposure to abacavir or tenofovir within the past 6 months, compared with no exposure to these drugs, respectively. Outcomes were time to first atherosclerotic cardiovascular event, defined as coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral arterial disease; and time to incident heart failure. Results Over 60 588 person-years of observation, there were 501 cardiovascular and 194 heart failure events. Age-standardized event rates among abacavir and tenofovir users were 12.5 versus 8.2 per 1000 person-years for cardiovascular disease, and 3.9 and 3.7 per 1000 person-years for heart failure, respectively. In multivariate-adjusted models, including time-updated measurements of kidney function, recent abacavir use was significantly associated with incident cardiovascular disease [hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–2.04]; the association was similar but nonsignificant for heart failure (1.45, 0.85–2.47). In contrast, recent tenofovir use was significantly associated with heart failure (1.82, 1.02–3.24), but not with cardiovascular events (0.78, 0.52–1.16). Conclusion Recent abacavir exposure was independently associated with increased risk for cardiovascular events. We also observed an association between recent tenofovir exposure and heart failure, which needs to be confirmed in future studies. PMID:21516027

Long-QT Syndrome and Therapy for Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder.

PubMed

Zhang, Claire; Kutyifa, Valentina; Moss, Arthur J; McNitt, Scott; Zareba, Wojciech; Kaufman, Elizabeth S

2015-10-01

Stimulants are the mainstay therapy for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and are associated with adrenergic side effects. There are limited data on the clinical course of patients treated for ADHD who have long-QT syndrome (LQTS), for which β-blockade is the goal of therapy. LQTS patients from the Rochester-based LQTS Registry (open-enrollment between 1979 and 2003; follow-up from 1979 to present) treated with stimulant or nonstimulant ADHD medications (n = 48) were compared to a 2:1 age-, gender-, and QTc-duration matched LQTS control group not exposed to ADHD medications (n = 96). Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to evaluate risk of cardiac events (syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death) in LQTS patients treated with ADHD medications. During a mean follow-up of 7.9 ± 5.4 years after initiation of ADHD medication at a mean age 10.7 ±7.3 years, there was a 62% cumulative probability of cardiac events in the ADHD treatment group compared to 28% in the matched LQTS control group (P < 0.001). Time-dependent use of ADHD medication was associated with an increased risk for cardiac events (HR = 3.07; P = 0.03) in the multivariate Cox model adjusted for time-dependent β-blocker use and prior cardiac events. Subgroup gender analyses showed that time-dependent ADHD medication was associated with an increased risk in male LQTS patients (HR = 6.80, P = 0.04). LQTS patients treated with ADHD medications have increased risk for cardiac events, particularly syncope, and this risk is augmented in males. The findings highlight the importance of heightened surveillance for LQTS patients on ADHD medications. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The association of colonoscopy quality indicators with the detection of screen-relevant lesions, adverse events, and postcolonoscopy cancers in an asymptomatic Canadian colorectal cancer screening population.

PubMed

Hilsden, Robert J; Dube, Catherine; Heitman, Steven J; Bridges, Ronald; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Rostom, Alaa

2015-11-01

Although several quality indicators of colonoscopy have been defined, quality assurance activities should be directed at the measurement of quality indicators that are predictive of key screening colonoscopy outcomes. The goal of this study was to examine the association among established quality indicators and the detection of screen-relevant lesions (SRLs), adverse events, and postcolonoscopy cancers. Historical cohort study. Canadian colorectal cancer screening center. A total of 18,456 asymptomatic men and women ages 40 to 74, at either average risk or increased risk for colorectal cancer because of a family history, who underwent a screening colonoscopy from 2008 to 2010. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we explored the association among procedural quality indicators and 3 colonoscopy outcomes: detection of SRLs, adverse events, and postcolonoscopy cancers. The crude rates of SRLs, adverse events, and postcolonoscopy cancers were 240, 6.44, and .54 per 1000 colonoscopies, respectively. Several indicators, including endoscopist withdrawal time (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.4) and cecal intubation rate (OR, 13.9; 95% CI, 1.9-96.9), were associated with the detection of SRLs. No quality indicator was associated with the risk of adverse events. Endoscopist average withdrawal time over 6 minutes (OR, .12; 95% CI, .002-.85) and SRL detection rate over 20% (OR, .17; 95% CI, .03-.74) were associated with a reduced risk of postcolonoscopy cancers. Single-center study. Quality assurance programs should prioritize the measurement of endoscopist average withdrawal time and adenoma (SRL) detection rate. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drunk driving detection based on classification of multivariate time series.

PubMed

Li, Zhenlong; Jin, Xue; Zhao, Xiaohua

2015-09-01

This paper addresses the problem of detecting drunk driving based on classification of multivariate time series. First, driving performance measures were collected from a test in a driving simulator located in the Traffic Research Center, Beijing University of Technology. Lateral position and steering angle were used to detect drunk driving. Second, multivariate time series analysis was performed to extract the features. A piecewise linear representation was used to represent multivariate time series. A bottom-up algorithm was then employed to separate multivariate time series. The slope and time interval of each segment were extracted as the features for classification. Third, a support vector machine classifier was used to classify driver's state into two classes (normal or drunk) according to the extracted features. The proposed approach achieved an accuracy of 80.0%. Drunk driving detection based on the analysis of multivariate time series is feasible and effective. The approach has implications for drunk driving detection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A Framework and Algorithms for Multivariate Time Series Analytics (MTSA): Learning, Monitoring, and Recommendation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ngan, Chun-Kit

2013-01-01

Making decisions over multivariate time series is an important topic which has gained significant interest in the past decade. A time series is a sequence of data points which are measured and ordered over uniform time intervals. A multivariate time series is a set of multiple, related time series in a particular domain in which domain experts…

A Statistical Discrimination Experiment for Eurasian Events Using a Twenty-Seven-Station Network

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-08

to test the effectiveness of a multivariate method of analysis for distinguishing earthquakes from explosions. The data base for the experiment...to test the effectiveness of a multivariate method of analysis for distinguishing earthquakes from explosions. The data base for the experiment...the weight assigned to each variable whenever a new one is added. Jennrich, R. I. (1977). Stepwise discriminant analysis , in Statistical Methods for

The value of time-averaged serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in prediction of mortality and dropout in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Chen, Chao-Yu; Li, Yi-Jung; Wu, Hsin-Hsu; Lin, Chan-Yu; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Ming-Yang; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Ku, Cheng-Lung; Tian, Ya-Chung

2017-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a useful biomarker for prediction of long-term outcomes in patients undergoing chronic dialysis. This observational cohort study evaluated whether the time-averaged serum high-sensitivity CRP (HS-CRP) level was a better predictor of clinical outcomes than a single HS-CRP level in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). We classified 335 patients into three tertiles according to the time-averaged serum HS-CRP level and followed up regularly from January 2010 to December 2014. Clinical outcomes such as cardiovascular events, infection episodes, newly developed malignancy, encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS), dropout (death plus conversion to hemodialysis), and mortality were assessed. During a 5-year follow-up, 164 patients (49.0%) ceased PD; this included 52 patient deaths (15.5%), 100 patients (29.9%) who converted to hemodialysis, and 12 patients (3.6%) who received a kidney transplantation. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test revealed a significantly worse survival accumulation in patients with high time-average HS-CRP levels. A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a higher time-averaged serum HS-CRP level, older age, and the occurrence of cardiovascular events were independent mortality predictors. A higher time-averaged serum HS-CRP level, the occurrence of cardiovascular events, infection episodes, and EPS were important predictors of dropout. The receiver operating characteristic analysis verified that the value of the time-average HS-CRP level in predicting the 5-year mortality and dropout was superior to a single serum baseline HS-CRP level. This study shows that the time-averaged serum HS-CRP level is a better marker than a single baseline measurement in predicting the 5-year mortality and dropout in PD patients.

[Time of adhesion to the Family Health Strategy protects elderly against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents in Florianópolis, 2003 to 2007].

PubMed

Xavier, André Junqueira; dos Reis, Sandro Sedrez; Paulo, Elizabeth Machado; d'Orsi, Eleonora

2008-01-01

The Family Health Strategy (FHS) provides longitudinal follow-up and integrated healthcare. This study evaluated the influence of the time of adhesion to the FHS upon the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebral vascular accidents among the elderly enrolled in the CASSI-Florianópolis. The events were selected because of their high incidence, good notification and association with risk factors the FHS is able to modify. The longer the time of adhesion to the strategy the lower the incidence of these events, demonstrating the effectiveness of the FHS. A historical cohort study was conducted with 674 senior participants (60 or more years), registered between November/2003 and March/2007. The analysis used Student's T test, bivariate and multivariate analysis with logistic regression. The independent risk factors were: age over 80 years, (OR=3,44; CI 95%: 1,8-6,2), diabetes (OR=2,62; CI 95%: 1,4-4,7), hypertension (OR=1,68; CI 95%: 1,0-2,6) and physical inactivity (OR=2,06; CI 95%: 1,2-3,2). The study found no significant association between gender, dislipidemia, obesity, smoking, alcoholism and the studied events. The long time of adhesion to the FHS showed independent protective effect (OR=0,43; CI 95%: 0,2-0,8) after adjustment to earlier covariates, being effective in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebral vascular accidents among the enrolled population of elderly.

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeff

2015-01-01

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

Chronic Stress is Prospectively Associated with Sleep in Midlife Women: The SWAN Sleep Study.

PubMed

Hall, Martica H; Casement, Melynda D; Troxel, Wendy M; Matthews, Karen A; Bromberger, Joyce T; Kravitz, Howard M; Krafty, Robert T; Buysse, Daniel J

2015-10-01

Evaluate whether levels of upsetting life events measured over a 9-y period prospectively predict subjective and objective sleep outcomes in midlife women. Prospective cohort study. Four sites across the United States. 330 women (46-57 y of age) enrolled in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Sleep Study. N/A. Upsetting life events were assessed annually for up to 9 y. Trajectory analysis applied to life events data quantitatively identified three distinct chronic stress groups: low stress, moderate stress, and high stress. Sleep was assessed by self-report and in-home polysomnography (PSG) during the ninth year of the study. Multivariate analyses tested the prospective association between chronic stress group and sleep, adjusting for race, baseline sleep complaints, marital status, body mass index, symptoms of depression, and acute life events at the time of the Sleep Study. Women characterized by high chronic stress had lower subjective sleep quality, were more likely to report insomnia, and exhibited increased PSG-assessed wake after sleep onset (WASO) relative to women with low to moderate chronic stress profiles. The effect of chronic stress group on WASO persisted in the subsample of participants without baseline sleep complaints. Chronic stress is prospectively associated with sleep disturbance in midlife women, even after adjusting for acute stressors at the time of the sleep study and other factors known to disrupt sleep. These results are consistent with current models of stress that emphasize the cumulative effect of stressors on health over time. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). Results There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Conclusions Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery. PMID:24779617

Multivariate multiscale entropy of financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun

2017-11-01

In current process of quantifying the dynamical properties of the complex phenomena in financial market system, the multivariate financial time series are widely concerned. In this work, considering the shortcomings and limitations of univariate multiscale entropy in analyzing the multivariate time series, the multivariate multiscale sample entropy (MMSE), which can evaluate the complexity in multiple data channels over different timescales, is applied to quantify the complexity of financial markets. Its effectiveness and advantages have been detected with numerical simulations with two well-known synthetic noise signals. For the first time, the complexity of four generated trivariate return series for each stock trading hour in China stock markets is quantified thanks to the interdisciplinary application of this method. We find that the complexity of trivariate return series in each hour show a significant decreasing trend with the stock trading time progressing. Further, the shuffled multivariate return series and the absolute multivariate return series are also analyzed. As another new attempt, quantifying the complexity of global stock markets (Asia, Europe and America) is carried out by analyzing the multivariate returns from them. Finally we utilize the multivariate multiscale entropy to assess the relative complexity of normalized multivariate return volatility series with different degrees.

Depressive vulnerabilities predict depression status and trajectories of depression over 1 year in persons with acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Doyle, Frank; McGee, Hannah; Delaney, Mary; Motterlini, Nicola; Conroy, Ronán

2011-01-01

Depression is prevalent in patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We determined whether theoretical vulnerabilities for depression (interpersonal life events, reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, Type D personality) predicted depression, or depression trajectories, post-hospitalization. We followed 375 ACS patients who completed depression scales during hospital admission and at least once during three follow-up intervals over 1 year (949 observations). Questionnaires assessing vulnerabilities were completed at baseline. Logistic regression for panel/longitudinal data predicted depression status during follow-up. Latent class analysis determined depression trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression modeled the relationship between vulnerabilities and trajectories. Vulnerabilities predicted depression status over time in univariate and multivariate analysis, even when controlling for baseline depression. Proportions in each depression trajectory category were as follows: persistent (15%), subthreshold (37%), never depressed (48%). Vulnerabilities independently predicted each of these trajectories, with effect sizes significantly highest for the persistent depression group. Self-reported vulnerabilities - stressful life events, reduced reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, personality - measured during hospitalization can identify those at risk for depression post-ACS and especially those with persistent depressive episodes. Interventions should focus on these vulnerabilities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thromboembolic events in cancer patients on active treatment with cisplatin-based chemotherapy: another look!

PubMed

Abdel-Razeq, Hikmat; Mansour, Asem; Abdulelah, Hazem; Al-Shwayat, Anas; Makoseh, Mohammad; Ibrahim, Mohammad; Abunasser, Mahmoud; Rimawi, Dalia; Al-Rabaiah, Abeer; Alfar, Rozan; Abufara, Alaa'; Ibrahim, Alaa; Bawaliz, Anas; Ismael, Yousef

2018-01-01

The risk of thromboembolic events is higher among cancer patients, especially in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Cisplatin-based regimens claim to be associated with a very high thromboembolic rate. In this study, we report on our own experience with thrombosis among patients on active cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Medical records and hospital databases were searched for all the patients treated with any cisplatin-based regimen for any kind of cancer. Thrombosis was considered cisplatin-related if diagnosed any time after the first dose and up to 4 weeks after the last. The Khorana risk assessment model was performed in all cases. A total of 1677 patients (65.5% males, median age: 50 years) treated with cisplatin-based regimens were identified. Head and neck (22.9%), lung (22.2%), lymphoma and gastric (11.4% each) were the most common primary tumors. Thromboembolic events were reported in 110 (6.6%); the highest was in patients with gastric cancer (20.9%) and the lowest in patients with head and neck cancers (2.3%) and lymphoma (1.6%). Thrombosis included deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in 69 (62.7%), pulmonary embolism (PE) in 18 (16.9%) and arterial thrombosis in 17 (15.6%). A majority (51.1%) of the patients had stage IV disease and only 16% had stage I or II.In a multivariate analysis, significantly higher rates of thrombosis were associated with gastric as the primary tumor, advanced-stage disease, female sex but not age, and the Khorana risk score or type of cisplatin regimen. While the presence of CVC was significantly associated with the risk of thrombosis ( p  < 0.0001) in the univariate analysis, and such significance was lost in the multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 1.098; 95%CI, 0.603-1.999, p  = 0.7599). Thromboembolic events in cancer patients on active cisplatin-based chemotherapy were commonly encountered. Gastric cancer, regardless of other clinical variables, was associated with the highest risk.

Professional attitudes toward incident reporting: can we measure and compare improvements in patient safety culture?

PubMed

Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Castriotta, Luigi; Battistella, Claudio; Bellomo, Fabrizio; Cattani, Giovanni; Grillone, Lucrezia; Degan, Stefania; De Corti, Daniela; Brusaferro, Silvio

2017-04-01

To establish categories of professionals' attitudes toward incident reporting by analyzing the trends in incident reporting while accounting for general risk indicators. The incident reporting system was evaluated over 6 years. Reporting rates, stratified by year and profession, were estimated using the non-mandatory reported events/full-time equivalent (NM-IR/FTE) rate. Other indicators were collected using the hospital's official database. Staff attitudes toward self-reporting were analyzed. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. A 1000-bed Italian academic hospital. Staff of the hospital (over 3200 professionals). None. NM-IT/FTE rates, self-reported rates, patient complaints/praises, work accidents among professionals and 30-day readmissions. The overall reporting rate was 0.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42-0.46) among doctors and 0.40 (95% CI: 0.39-0.41) among nurses. Between 2010 and 2015, only the doctors' reporting rate increased significantly (P = 0.04), from 0.29 (95% CI: 0.25-0.34) to 0.67 (95% CI: 0.60-0.73). Patient complaints decreased from 384 to 224 (P < 0.001) and work accidents decreased from 296 to 235 (P = 0.01), while other indicators remained constant. Multivariable logistic regression showed that self-reporting was more likely among nurses than doctors (odds ratio: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.31-1.73) and for severe events than near misses (odds ratio: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.11-2.87). Because the doctors' reporting rates increased during the study period, doctors may be more likely to report adverse events than nurses, although nurses reported more events. Incident reporting trends and other routinely collected risk indicators may be useful to improve our understanding and measurement of patient safety issues. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Determinants of Medical System Delay in the Diagnosis of Colorectal Cancer within the Veteran Affairs Health System

PubMed Central

Fisher, Deborah A.; Zullig, Leah L.; Grambow, Steven C.; Abbott, David H.; Sandler, Robert S.; Fletcher, Robert H.; El-Serag, Hashem B.; Provenzale, Dawn

2010-01-01

Background & Aims The goals of this study were to evaluate determinants of the time in the medical system until a colorectal cancer diagnosis and to explore characteristics associated with stage at diagnosis. Methods We examined medical records and survey data for 468 patients with colorectal cancer at 15 Veterans Affairs medical centers. Patients were classified as screen-detected, bleeding-detected, or other (resulting from the evaluation of another medical concern). Patients who presented emergently with obstruction or perforation were excluded. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine predictors of time in the medical system until diagnosis. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of stage at diagnosis. Results We excluded 21 subjects who presented emergently leaving 447 subjects; the mean age was 67 years and 98% were male, 66% Caucasian, and 43% stage I or II. Diagnosis was by screening for 39%, bleeding symptoms for 27% and other for 34%. The median times to diagnosis were 73–91 days and not significantly different by diagnostic category. In the multivariable model for time-to-diagnosis, older age, having comorbidities, and Atlantic region were associated with a longer time to diagnosis. In the multivariable model for stage-at-diagnosis only diagnostic category was associated with stage; screen-detected category was associated with decreased risk of late stage cancer. Conclusions Our results point to several factors associated with a longer time from the initial clinical event until diagnosis. This increased time in the health care system did not clearly translate into more advanced disease at diagnosis. PMID:20238248

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation for in-hospital events in the emergency department: A comparison of adult and pediatric outcomes and care processes.

PubMed

Donoghue, Aaron J; Abella, Benjamin S; Merchant, Raina; Praestgaard, Amy; Topjian, Alexis; Berg, Robert; Nadkarni, Vinay

2015-07-01

To compare outcomes from in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in the emergency department (ED) for pediatric and adult patients and to identify factors associated with differences in outcomes between children and adults. Retrospective analysis of the Get With The Guidelines--Resuscitation database from January 1, 2000 to September 30, 2010. All patients with CPR initiated in the ED requiring chest compressions for ≥ 2 min were eligible; trauma patients were excluded. Patients were divided into children (<18 yo) and adults (≥ 18 yo). Patient, event, treatment, and hospital factors were analyzed for association with outcomes. Univariate analysis was performed comparing children and adults. Multivariate analysis was used to determine factors associated with outcomes. 16,834 events occurred in 608 centers (16,245 adult, 537 pediatric). Adults had more frequent return of spontaneous circulation (53% vs 47%, p = 0.02), 24h survival (35% vs 30%, p = 0.02), and survival to discharge (23% vs 20%, p = NS) than children. Children were less frequently monitored (62% vs 82%) or witnessed (79% vs 88%), had longer duration (24 m vs 17 m), more epinephrine doses (3 vs 2), and more frequent intubation attempts (64% vs 55%) than adults. There were no differences in time to compressions, vasopressor administration, or defibrillation between children and adults. On multivariate analysis, age had no association with outcomes. Survival following CPR in the ED is similar for adults and children. While univariate differences exist between children and adults, neither age nor specific processes of care are independently associated with outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiopulmonary events during primary colonoscopy screening in an average risk population.

PubMed

Khalid-de Bakker, C A; Jonkers, D M; Hameeteman, W; de Ridder, R J; Masclee, A A; Stockbrügger, R W

2011-04-01

Large colorectal cancer screening studies using primary colonoscopy have reported a low risk of major complications. Studies on diagnostic and therapeutic colonoscopy have pointed to a frequent occurrence of(minor) cardiopulmonary events, and with the steady increase of colonoscopy screening, it is important to investigate their occurrence in colonoscopy screening. This study describes the frequency of bradycardia(pulse rate <60 min-1), hypotension (systolic blood pressure(SB P) <90 mmHg), hypoxaemia (blood oxygenation, SaO2<90%) and ECG changes during colonoscopy screening in an average-risk population (hospital personnel, n=214,mean age 54.0±3.8, 39.3% male), without significant comorbidity) and aims at identifying subject-related and/or endoscopic factors associated with their occurrence. All data were collected prospectively. During 214 consecutive primary screening colonoscopies under conscious sedation(midazolam and pethidine), on top of pulse rate and SaO2,blood pressure and a three-channel ECG were recorded every five minutes. No major complications or relevant ECG changes occurred. Hypoxaemia occurred in 119 (55.6%),hypotension in 19 (8.9%) and bradycardia in 12 subjects(5.6%). In multivariate analysis, the sedation level 3 increased the risk of hypoxaemia (OR 4.8, CI 1.7-13.7), and incomplete colonoscopy (OR 5.3, CI 1.6-18.1) was associated with hypotension. Subjects with bradycardia had a longer mean procedure time (38±12 vs. 29±12 min, p<0.05), which did not turn out as a risk factor in a multivariate analysis. Mainly procedure-related and not subject-related factors were found to be associated with the occurrence of cardiopulmonary events in primary colonoscopy screening in this relatively healthy screening population.

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation for in-hospital events in the emergency department: A comparison of adult and pediatric outcomes and care processes☆

PubMed Central

Donoghue, Aaron J.; Abella, Benjamin S.; Merchant, Raina; Praestgaard, Amy; Topjian, Alexis; Berg, Robert; Nadkarni, Vinay

2016-01-01

Objectives To compare outcomes from in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in the emergency department (ED) for pediatric and adult patients and to identify factors associated with differences in outcomes between children and adults. Methods Retrospective analysis of the Get With The Guidelines – Resuscitation database from January 1, 2000 to September 30, 2010. All patients with CPR initiated in the ED requiring chest compressions for ≥2 min were eligible; trauma patients were excluded. Patients were divided into children (ρ8 yo) and adults (≥18 yo). Patient, event, treatment, and hospital factors were analyzed for association with outcomes. Univariate analysis was performed comparing children and adults. Multivariate analysis was used to determine factors associated with outcomes. Results 16,834 events occurred in 608 centers (16,245 adult, 537 pediatric). Adults had more frequent return of spontaneous circulation (53% vs 47%, p = 0.02), 24 h survival (35% vs 30%, p = 0.02), and survival to discharge (23% vs 20%, p = NS) than children. Children were less frequently monitored (62% vs 82%) or witnessed (79% vs 88%), had longer duration (24 m vs 17 m), more epinephrine doses (3 vs 2), and more frequent intubation attempts (64% vs 55%) than adults. There were no differences in time to compressions, vasopressor administration, or defibrillation between children and adults. On multivariate analysis, age had no association with outcomes. Conclusions Survival following CPR in the ED is similar for adults and children. While univariate differences exist between children and adults, neither age nor specific processes of care are independently associated with outcomes. PMID:25939323

Temporal variation in pelagic food chain length in response to environmental change

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Cooley, Rocio I.; Gerrodette, Tim; Fiedler, Paul C.; Chivers, Susan J.; Danil, Kerri; Ballance, Lisa T.

2017-01-01

Climate variability alters nitrogen cycling, primary productivity, and dissolved oxygen concentration in marine ecosystems. We examined the role of this variability (as measured by six variables) on food chain length (FCL) in the California Current (CC) by reconstructing a time series of amino acid–specific δ15N values derived from common dolphins, an apex pelagic predator, and using two FCL proxies. Strong declines in FCL were observed after the 1997–1999 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Bayesian models revealed longer FCLs under intermediate conditions for surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration, multivariate ENSO index, and total plankton volume but not for hypoxic depth and nitrate concentration. Our results challenge the prevalent paradigm that suggested long-term stability in the food web structure in the CC and, instead, reveal that pelagic food webs respond strongly to disturbances associated with ENSO events, local oceanography, and ongoing changes in climate. PMID:29057322

On-line early fault detection and diagnosis of municipal solid waste incinerators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao Jinsong; Huang Jianchao; Sun Wei

A fault detection and diagnosis framework is proposed in this paper for early fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) of municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) in order to improve the safety and continuity of production. In this framework, principal component analysis (PCA), one of the multivariate statistical technologies, is used for detecting abnormal events, while rule-based reasoning performs the fault diagnosis and consequence prediction, and also generates recommendations for fault mitigation once an abnormal event is detected. A software package, SWIFT, is developed based on the proposed framework, and has been applied in an actual industrial MSWI. The application shows thatmore » automated real-time abnormal situation management (ASM) of the MSWI can be achieved by using SWIFT, resulting in an industrially acceptable low rate of wrong diagnosis, which has resulted in improved process continuity and environmental performance of the MSWI.« less

Is early rehabilitation a myth? Physical inactivity in the first week after myocardial infarction and stroke.

PubMed

Lay, Sarah; Bernhardt, Julie; West, Tanya; Churilov, Leonid; Dart, Anthony; Hayes, Kate; Cumming, Toby B

2015-12-18

To compare physical activity levels of patients in the first week after myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. We conducted an observational study using behavioural mapping. MI patients were consecutively recruited from Alfred Hospital, Melbourne. Data for stroke patients (Royal Perth Hospital or Austin Hospital, Melbourne) were retrieved from an existing database. Patients were observed for 1 min every 10 min from 8 am to 5 pm. At each observation, the patient's highest level of physical activity, location and people present were recorded. Details of physiotherapy and occupational therapy sessions were recorded by the therapists. Proportion of the day spent physically inactive was lower in MI (n = 32, median 48%) than stroke (n = 125, median 59%) patients, but this difference was not significant in univariate or multivariate (adjusting for age, walking ability and days post-event) regression. Time spent physically active was higher in MI (median 23%) than stroke (median 10%) patients (p = 0.009), but this difference did not survive multivariate adjustment (p = 0.67). More stroke patients (78%) than MI patients (19%) participated in therapy. This study provides the first objective data on physical activity levels of acute MI patients. While they were more active than acute stroke patients, the difference was largely attributable to walking ability. Implications for rehabilitation In the first week after myocardial infarction, patients spent about half the day physically inactive (even though 81% were able to walk independently). Similar levels of inactivity were seen in a comparable cohort of acute stroke patients, suggesting that environmental factors play an important role. There appears to be wide scope for increasing levels of physical rehabilitation after acute cardiovascular events, though optimal timing and dose remain unclear.

Association of subclinical atherosclerosis using carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and coronary calcium score with left ventricular dyssynchrony: the multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Sharma, Ravi K; Donekal, Sirisha; Rosen, Boaz D; Tattersall, Matthew C; Volpe, Gustavo J; Ambale-Venkatesh, Bharath; Nasir, Khurram; Wu, Colin O; Polak, Joseph F; Korcarz, Claudia E; Stein, James H; Carr, James; Watson, Karol E; Bluemke, David A; Lima, João A C

2015-04-01

The role of atherosclerosis in the progression of global left ventricular dysfunction and cardiovascular events has been well recognized. Left ventricular (LV) dyssynchrony is a measure of regional myocardial dysfunction. Our objective was to investigate the relationship of subclinical atherosclerosis with mechanical LV dyssynchrony in a population-based asymptomatic multi-ethnic cohort. Participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) at exam 5 were evaluated using 1.5T cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, carotid ultrasound (n = 2062) for common carotid artery (CCA) and internal carotid artery (ICA) intima-media thickness (IMT), and cardiac computed tomography (n = 2039) for coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessment (Agatston method). Dyssynchrony indices were defined as the standard deviation of time to peak systolic circumferential strain (SD-TPS) and the difference between maximum and minimum (max-min) time to peak strain using harmonic phase imaging in 12 segments (3-slices × 4 segments). Multivariable regression analyses were performed to assess associations after adjusting for participant demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, LV mass, and ejection fraction. In multivariable analyses, SD-TPS was significantly related to measures of atherosclerosis, including CCA-IMT (8.7 ms/mm change in IMT, p = 0.020), ICA-IMT (19.2 ms/mm change in IMT, p < 0.001), carotid plaque score (1.2 ms/unit change in score, p < 0.001), and log transformed CAC+1 (0.66 ms/unit log-CAC+1, p = 0.018). These findings were consistent with other parameter of LV dyssynchrony i.e. max-min. In the MESA cohort, measures of atherosclerosis are associated with parameters of subclinical LV dyssynchrony in the absence of clinical coronary event and left-bundle-branch block. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paleoecology, Biostratigraphy, and Response of Calcareous Nannoplankton Communities to Climate Fluctuations during the Late Oligocene in the Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aljahdali, M. H.; Wise, S. W.

2015-12-01

The earliest Oligocene is considered the time that the Cenozoic icehouse world was initiated when the Antarctic continental ice sheet first reached sea level. Subsequently during the Oligocene, climate then fluctuated between glacial (Oi) and warming events as recorded by stable isotopes. Relatively little is known about the paleoecological response of calcareous nannoplankton at low latitudes during these climate deteriorations. Here we investigate the biotic response along with the stable-isotope (δ18O and δ13C) record and multivariate analyses from four ODP and IODP sites cored in three oceans along the tropical belt through strata 24-30 Ma in age. Within this time frame, two major climatic shifts occurred, the Oi-2b glacial event and the Late Oligocene Warming Event (LOWE). During the Oi-events (26.5-30 Ma) temperate-water taxa associated with eutrophic taxa dominated the overall assemblage, suggesting that relatively cooler water rich in nutrients invaded the tropical region. In contrast, during the LOWE (24-26.5 Ma), a major turnover between temperate-water taxa and warm-water taxa occurred when the surface waters became warm and oligotrophic in nature. Additionally, several increases in both abundance and size were recorded through the upper Oligocene including increased abundance in Sphenolithus predistentus, a major biostratigraphic marker in the upper Oligocene, and increased size in S. moriformis. Moreover, a new additional major biostratigraphic event in the upper Oligocene was recorded; Crassidiscus backmanii shows a very short range at low latitudes. These paleoecological responses can be utilized to construct a detailed global late Oligocene biostratigraphy throughout the tropics.

Familial Pathways to Early-Onset Suicidal Behavior: Familial and Individual Antecedents of Suicidal Behavior

PubMed Central

Melhem, Nadine M.; Brent, David A.; Ziegler, Melissa; Iyengar, Satish; Kolko, David; Oquendo, Maria; Birmaher, Boris; Burke, Ainsley; Zelazny, Jamie; Stanley, Barbara; Mann, J. John

2013-01-01

Objective The authors sought to identify clinical predictors of new-onset suicidal behavior in children of parents with a history of mood disorder and suicidal behavior. Method In a prospective study of offspring of parents with mood disorders, 365 offspring (average age, 20 years) of 203 parents were followed for up to 6 years. Offspring with incident suicide attempts or emergency referrals for suicidal ideation or behavior (“incident events”) were compared with offspring without such events on demographic and clinical characteristics. Multivariate analyses were conducted to examine predictors of incident events and predictors of time to incident event. Results Offspring of probands who had made suicide attempts, compared with offspring of parents with mood disorders who had not made attempts, had a higher rate of incident suicide attempts (4.1% versus 0.6%, relative risk=6.5) as well as overall suicidal events (8.3% versus 1.9%, relative risk=4.4). Mood disorder and self-reported impulsive aggression in offspring and a history of sexual abuse and self-reported depression in parents predicted earlier time to, and greater hazard of, an incident suicidal event. Conclusions In offspring of parents with mood disorders, precursors of early-onset suicidal behavior include mood disorder and impulsive aggression as well as parental history of suicide attempt, sexual abuse, and self-reported depression. These results suggest that efforts to prevent the familial transmission of early-onset suicidal behavior by targeting these domains could reduce the morbidity of suicidal behavior in high-risk youths. PMID:17728421

Physical inactivity as a risk factor for primary and secondary coronary events in Göteborg, Sweden.

PubMed

Johansson, S; Rosengren, A; Tsipogianni, A; Ulvenstam, G; Wiklund, I; Wilhelmsen, L

1988-11-01

Physical activity at work and during leisure time were studied by using a questionnaire in a random sample of 7495 middle-aged men from the Primary Prevention Study in Göteborg and in 1273 able-bodied male patients with a first myocardial infarction, registered in the Infarction Register in the same city over the period 1968-84. Data on coronary risk factors and socio-economic factors were recorded in the population sample as were data on risk factors and known somatic predictors for prognosis in the infarction group. An inverse and graded association was found between leisure time physical activity and mean diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, body mass index, tobacco smoking, socio-economic status and mental stress in the random sample. During the approximate 12-year follow-up, low physical activity during leisure time, but not at work, was associated with an increased risk of coronary deaths and non-fatal infarctions in univariate analysis. Inactive subjects had twice the incidence of total coronary events (9.4%) as physically active contemporaries (4.2%). After controlling for major coronary risk factors, occupational class, diabetes, family history of coronary heart disease and mental stress in a multivariate logistic regression analysis, the association between leisure time physical activity and total coronary events disappeared. Physical activity at work and during leisure time estimated for the 12-month period preceding the first infarction was not associated with long-term prognosis after infarction. Infarction patients assessed to be in need of additional rehabilitation due to somatic restrictions, work-related factors and emotional instability, resumed work later and had a higher mortality and non-fatal recurrence rate during follow-up than patients not considered to require additional rehabilitation. Physical inactivity was not a risk factor for primary and secondary coronary events in this study. The inverse direction of the association between leisure time physical activity and coronary risk factors suggests that increased physical activity alters the risk factor profile in a favourable direction.

The Incidence and Predictors of Early- and Mid-Term Clinically Relevant Neurological Events After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in Real-World Patients.

PubMed

Bosmans, Johan; Bleiziffer, Sabine; Gerckens, Ulrich; Wenaweser, Peter; Brecker, Stephen; Tamburino, Corrado; Linke, Axel

2015-07-21

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) enables treatment of high-risk patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis without open-heart surgery; however, the benefits are mitigated by the potential for neurological events. This study sought to determine the timing and causes of clinically relevant neurological events after self-expandable TAVR. We enrolled 1,015 patients, of whom 996 underwent TAVR with a self-expandable system at 44 TAVR-experienced centers in Europe, Colombia, and Israel. Neurological events were evaluated for 3 distinct time periods: periprocedural (0 to 1 days post TAVR); early (2 to 30 days); and late (31 to 730 days). In this real-world study, neurological events were first referred to the site neurologist and then reviewed by an independent neurologist. The overall stroke rate was 1.4% through the first day post-procedure, 3.0% at 30 days, and 5.6% at 2 years. There were no significant predictors of periprocedural stroke or stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) combined. Significant predictors of early stroke were acute kidney injury (p = 0.03), major vascular complication (p = 0.04), and female sex (p = 0.04). For stroke/TIA combined, prior atrial fibrillation (p = 0.03) and major vascular complication (p = 0.009) were predictive. Coronary artery bypass graft surgery was the only significant predictor of late stroke (p = 0.007) or late stroke/TIA (p = 0.06). Treatment of high-risk patients with aortic stenosis using a self-expandable system was associated with a low stroke rate at short- and long-term follow-up. Multivariable predictors of clinically relevant neurological events differed on the basis of the timing after TAVR. (CoreValve Advance International Post Market Study; NCT01074658). Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Balancing rejection and infection with respect to age, race, and gender: clues acquired from 17 years of cardiac transplantation data.

PubMed

George, James F; Pamboukian, Salpy V; Tallaj, José A; Naftel, David C; Myers, Susan L; Foushee, Margaret T; Brown, Robert N; Pajaro, Octavio E; McGiffin, David C; Kirklin, James K

2010-09-01

Donor and recipient risk factors for rejection and infection have been well characterized. The contribution of demographic factors, especially age at the time of transplantation to morbidity and mortality due to rejection and infection, is much less well understood. Using parametric hazard analysis and multivariate risk-factor equations for infection and rejection events, we quantitatively determined the relationship of fundamental demographic variables (age, race and gender) to infection and rejection. These analyses were conducted with respect to date of transplant and age at the time of transplantation. The patient group consisted of all primary heart transplants performed at the University of Alabama at Birmingham during the years 1990 to 2007 (n = 526). Risk factors for rejection within 12 months post-transplantation were date of transplant (p < 0.0001) and age at the time of transplantation (young adults 10 to 30 years of age, p < 0.0001). Risk factors for infection were date of transplant (p < 0.0001) and age at the time of transplantation (young children and older adults, p < 0.0001). There were three immunosuppressive eras in 1990 to 2007. Notably, although the proportion of patients experiencing rejection and infection events decreased during each successive immunosuppressive era, the relative relationship of infection to rejection, as well as age at the time of transplantation, remained similar into the most recent era. The maximal frequency of rejection events and rejection death occurred among patients transplanted at ages 10 to 30 years. Conversely, the frequency of infection events was minimal within the same group. In the oldest and youngest patients receiving transplants, infection was the predominant cause of death and rates of rejection events decreased. These data show that evolving immunosuppressive strategies have successfully reduced rejection and infection frequencies, and those patients transplanted at 30 to 60 years of age have the lowest frequency of rejection/infection events. However, individuals transplanted at younger or older ages, especially non-white recipients in the 10- to 30-year age group, experience significantly more infection or rejection. Therefore, programs should increase the level of surveillance in these patients and consider modification of immunosuppressive regimens in order to lower the frequency of infection and rejection events. Copyright 2010 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores: A retrospective analysis over an observation period of up to 19.5 years.

PubMed

Raedel, Michael; Fiedler, Cliff; Jacoby, Stephan; Boening, Klaus W

2015-07-01

Scientific data about the long-term survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores are scarce. Retrospective studies often use different target events for their analyses. A comparison is therefore complicated. For associated tooth-, jaw-, and patient-related factors little evidence exists as to their effect on survival. The purpose of this study was to extend the knowledge on the survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores for observation periods of more than 10 years. A decrease or increase in survival times according to the presence or absence of associated parameters needs to be evaluated. A retrospective evaluation was conducted of all cast post and cores inserted in 1 university clinic between January 1992 and June 2011. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was carried out by using extraction as the target event. The survival curves for different tooth types, the presence or absence of adjacent teeth, and the prosthetic restoration of the respective jaws were compared by using the log-rank test (α=.05). A Cox regression model was calculated for multivariate analyses. A total of 717 cast post and cores for 343 patients were recorded. The mean survival time was 13.5 years. A statistically significant decrease in survival times was found for canines (11.9 years) and premolars (13.4 years) versus molars (14.1 years), no adjacent teeth (10.6 years) versus at least 1 adjacent tooth (13.8 years), and the restoration with removable dental prostheses (12.5 years) versus fixed dental prostheses and single crowns (13.9 years). The largest reduction in survival time was found for teeth being used as an abutment for a double crown-retained removable partial dental prosthesis (telescopic denture) (9.8 years). Tooth type and adjacent tooth status remained as significant variables within the multivariate Cox regression model. Cast post and cores have an acceptable long-term survival time. Because different factors may influence survival, considering these factors in treatment planning may increase the long-term success of these restorations. Copyright © 2015 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Violence and post-traumatic stress disorder in childhood].

PubMed

Ximenes, Liana Furtado; de Oliveira, Raquel de Vasconcelos Carvalhães; de Assis, Simone Gonçalves

2009-01-01

This study presents the prevalence of symptoms of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in 500 schoolchildren (6-13 years old) in São Gonçalo, Rio de Janeiro. It also investigates the association between PTSD, violence and other adverse events in the lives of these children. The multi-stage cluster sampling strategy involved three selection stages. Parents were interviewed about their children's behavior. The instrument used to screen symptoms of PTSD was the Child Behavior Checklist-Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Scale (CBCL-PTSD). Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS) were applied to evaluate family violence and other scales to investigate the socioeconomic profile, familiar relationship, characteristics and adverse events in the lives of the children. Multivariate analysis was performed using a hierarchical model with a significance level of 5%. The prevalence of clinical symptoms of PTSD was of 6.5%. The multivariate analysis suggested an explanation model of PTSD characterized by 18 variables, such as the child's characteristics; specific life events; family violence; and other family factors. The results reveal that it is necessary to work with the child in particularly difficult moments of his/her life in order to prevent or minimize the impact of adverse events on their mental and social functioning.

Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Larry R.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

Long QT syndrome in African-Americans.

PubMed

Fugate, Thomas; Moss, Arthur J; Jons, Christian; McNitt, Scott; Mullally, Jamie; Ouellet, Gregory; Goldenberg, Ilan; Zareba, Wojciech; Robinson, Jennifer L

2010-01-01

We evaluated the risk factors and clinical course of Long QT syndrome (LQTS) in African-American patients. The study involved 41 African-Americans and 3456 Caucasians with a QTc > or = 450 ms from the U.S. portion of the International LQTS Registry. Data included information about the medical history and clinical course of the LQTS patients with end points relating to the occurrence of syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, or LQTS-related sudden cardiac death from birth through age 40 years. The statistical analyses involved Kaplan-Meier time to event graphs and Cox regression models for multivariable risk factor evaluation. The QTc was 29 ms longer in African-Americans than Caucasians. Multivarite Cox analyses with adjustment for decade of birth revealed that the cardiac event rate was similar in African-Americans and Caucasians with LQTS and that beta-blockers were equally effective in reducing cardiac events in the two racial groups. The clinical course of LQTS in African-Americans is similar to that of Caucasians with comparable risk factors and benefit from beta-blocker therapy in the two racial groups.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Perioperative Cardiovascular and Respiratory Adverse Events in Pediatric Patients With Congenital Heart Disease Undergoing Noncardiac Procedures.

PubMed

Lee, Sandra; Reddington, Elise; Koutsogiannaki, Sophia; Hernandez, Michael R; Odegard, Kirsten C; DiNardo, James A; Yuki, Koichi

2018-04-27

While mortality and adverse perioperative events after noncardiac surgery in children with a broad range of congenital cardiac lesions have been investigated using large multiinstitutional databases, to date single-center studies addressing adverse outcomes in children with congenital heart disease (CHD) undergoing noncardiac surgery have only included small numbers of patients with significant heart disease. The primary objective of this study was to determine the incidences of perioperative cardiovascular and respiratory events in a large cohort of patients from a single institution with a broad range of congenital cardiac lesions undergoing noncardiac procedures and to determine risk factors for these events. We identified 3010 CHD patients presenting for noncardiac procedures in our institution over a 5-year period. We collected demographic information, including procedure performed, cardiac diagnosis, ventricular function as assessed by echocardiogram within 6 months of the procedure, and classification of CHD into 3 groups (minor, major, or severe CHD) based on residual lesion burden and cardiovascular functional status. Characteristics related to conduct of anesthesia care were also collected. The primary outcome variables for our analysis were the incidences of intraoperative cardiovascular and respiratory events. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to determine risk factors for these 2 outcomes. The incidence of cardiovascular events was 11.5% and of respiratory events was 4.7%. Univariate analysis and multivariable analysis demonstrated that American Society of Anesthesiologists (≥3), emergency cases, major and severe CHD, single-ventricle physiology, ventricular dysfunction, orthopedic surgery, general surgery, neurosurgery, and pulmonary procedures were associated with perioperative cardiovascular events. Respiratory events were associated with American Society of Anesthesiologists (≥4) and otolaryngology, gastrointestinal, general surgery, and maxillofacial procedures. Intraoperative cardiovascular events and respiratory events in patients with CHD were relatively common. While cardiovascular events were highly associated with cardiovascular status, respiratory events were not associated with cardiovascular status.

Platelet reactivity to adenosine diphosphate and long-term ischemic event occurrence following percutaneous coronary intervention: a potential antiplatelet therapeutic target.

PubMed

Gurbel, Paul A; Antonino, Mark J; Bliden, Kevin P; Dichiara, Joseph; Suarez, Thomas A; Singla, Anand; Tantry, Udaya S

2008-12-01

Platelets play a central role in the genesis of post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) ischemic events. High post-procedural platelet reactivity to adenosine diphosphate (HPR(ADP)) may be a risk factor for ischemic events after PCI. The study was designed to evaluate a cutpoint of platelet reactivity that is associated with the occurrence of ischemic events after PCI. Post-procedural platelet reactivity to ADP was measured by conventional aggregometry in 297 consecutive patients undergoing non-emergent PCI. Patients were prospectively followed for up to 2 years for post-discharge ischemic events. All patients had received clopidogrel and aspirin therapy at the time of aggregation measurements. Eighty-one patients (27%) suffered ischemic events. Patients with ischemic events had higher 5 microM ADP-induced platelet aggregation (46 +/- 14% vs. 30 +/- 17%, p < 0.001) and 20 microM ADP-induced platelet aggregation (60 +/- 13% vs. 43 +/- 19%, p < 0.001) compared to patients without ischemic events. Using a combined receiver operator curve analysis, cutpoints of >46% aggregation following 5 microM ADP stimulation and >59% aggregation following 20 microM ADP stimulation (HPR(ADP)) were associated with 58 and 54% of ischemic events, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression demonstrated a significant relation between event occurrence and post-procedural HPR(ADP) cutpoints (5 microM ADP, OR=3.9, and 20 microM ADP, OR=3.8, p < 0.001 for both). High post-procedural platelet reactivity to ADP is an independent risk factor for ischemic events within 2 years of non-emergent PCI. These data support a potential therapeutic target for antiplatelet therapy based on the results of an ex vivo platelet function test. The study is a step towards a personalized medicine approach to guide the intensity of antiplatelet therapy.

Cognitive complexity of the medical record is a risk factor for major adverse events.

PubMed

Roberson, David; Connell, Michael; Dillis, Shay; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Gore, Rebecca; Heagerty, Elaina; Jenkins, Kathy; Ma, Lin; Maurer, Amy; Stephenson, Jessica; Schwartz, Margot

2014-01-01

Patients in tertiary care hospitals are more complex than in the past, but the implications of this are poorly understood as "patient complexity" has been difficult to quantify. We developed a tool, the Complexity Ruler, to quantify the amount of data (as bits) in the patient’s medical record. We designated the amount of data in the medical record as the cognitive complexity of the medical record (CCMR). We hypothesized that CCMR is a useful surrogate for true patient complexity and that higher CCMR correlates with risk of major adverse events. The Complexity Ruler was validated by comparing the measured CCMR with physician rankings of patient complexity on specific inpatient services. It was tested in a case-control model of all patients with major adverse events at a tertiary care pediatric hospital from 2005 to 2006. The main outcome measure was an externally reported major adverse event. We measured CCMR for 24 hours before the event, and we estimated lifetime CCMR. Above empirically derived cutoffs, 24-hour and lifetime CCMR were risk factors for major adverse events (odds ratios, 5.3 and 6.5, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, CCMR alone was essentially as predictive of risk as a model that started with 30-plus clinical factors. CCMR correlates with physician assessment of complexity and risk of adverse events. We hypothesize that increased CCMR increases the risk of physician cognitive overload. An automated version of the Complexity Ruler could allow identification of at-risk patients in real time.

Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

2017-07-01

Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

Sex Differences in the Effect of Type 2 Diabetes on Major Cardiovascular Diseases: Results from a Population-Based Study in Italy

PubMed Central

Greci, Marina; Manicardi, Valeria

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to assess sex difference in association between type 2 diabetes and incidence of major cardiovascular events, that is, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure, using information retrieved by diabetes register. The inhabitants of Reggio Emilia (Italy) aged 30–84 were followed during 2012–2014. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using multivariate Poisson model. The age- and sex-specific event rates were graphed. Subjects with type 2 diabetes had an excess risk compared to their counterparts without diabetes for all the three major cardiovascular events. The excess risk is similar in women and men for stroke (1.8 times) and heart failure (2.7 times), while for myocardial infarction, the excess risk in women is greater than the one observed in men (IRR 2.58, 95% CI 2.22–3.00 and IRR 1.78, 95% CI 1.60–2.00, resp.; P of interaction < 0.0001). Women had always a lesser risk than men, but in case of myocardial infarction, the women with type 2 diabetes lost part of advantage gained by women free of diabetes (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.53–0.72 and IRR 0.36, 95% CI 0.33–0.39, resp.). In women with type 2 diabetes, the risk of major cardiovascular events is anticipated by 20–30 years, while in men it is by 15–20. PMID:28316624

Adolescent self-harm and risk factors.

PubMed

Zhang, Jixiang; Song, Jianwei; Wang, Jing

2016-12-01

This study aims to define the characteristics of adolescents who have engaged in self-harm behavior and ascertain the risk factors. From January 2013 to January 2014, 4,176 adolescents from senior middle schools in Linyi, China, were administered four questionnaire surveys to ascertain the following: incidence of self-harm behavior regarding the frequency of different self-harm behaviors by group (never/one to five times/greater than five times in the last 6 months) and then comparing the self-harm behavior of the different subgroups; symptom self-check, comparing the differences between the adolescents with self-harm behavior and without in nine subscales (somatization, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anxiety, hostility, fear, paranoid, and psychosis); Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List scores; and Egna Minnenav Barndoms Uppfostran (EMBU) scores. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors of self-harm in adolescents. The incidence of adolescent self-harm was 27.60%; the occurrence of adolescent self-harm was closely related to their mental health status, stressful life events, and EMBU. Being female, an urban student, or an only child; having poor school performance or experiences of stressful life events, harsh parenting styles, or excessive interference; and poor mental health were the risk factors for adolescent self-harm. The incidence of adolescent self-harm was high, and their mental health status, stressful life events, and EMBU affected the occurrence of adolescent self-harm, which is an issue that needs greater attention. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Postmarket Safety Events Among Novel Therapeutics Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration Between 2001 and 2010

PubMed Central

Downing, Nicholas S.; Shah, Nilay D.; Aminawung, Jenerius A.; Pease, Alison M.; Zeitoun, Jean-David; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2017-01-01

Importance Postmarket safety events of novel pharmaceuticals and biologics occur when new safety risks are identified after initial regulatory approval of these therapeutics. These safety events can change how novel therapeutics are used in clinical practice and inform patient and clinician decision making. Objectives To characterize the frequency of postmarket safety events among novel therapeutics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and to examine whether any novel therapeutic characteristics known at the time of FDA approval were associated with increased risk. Design and Setting Cohort study of all novel therapeutics approved by the FDA between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2010, followed up through February 28, 2017. Exposures Novel therapeutic characteristics known at the time of FDA approval, including drug class, therapeutic area, priority review, accelerated approval, orphan status, near–regulatory deadline approval, and regulatory review time. Main Outcomes and Measures A composite of (1) withdrawals due to safety concerns, (2) FDA issuance of incremental boxed warnings added in the postmarket period, and (3) FDA issuance of safety communications. Results From 2001 through 2010, the FDA approved 222 novel therapeutics (183 pharmaceuticals and 39 biologics). There were 123 new postmarket safety events (3 withdrawals, 61 boxed warnings, and 59 safety communications) during a median follow-up period of 11.7 years (interquartile range [IQR], 8.7-13.8 years), affecting 71 (32.0%) of the novel therapeutics. The median time from approval to first postmarket safety event was 4.2 years (IQR, 2.5-6.0 years), and the proportion of novel therapeutics affected by a postmarket safety event at 10 years was 30.8% (95% CI, 25.1%-37.5%). In multivariable analysis, postmarket safety events were statistically significantly more frequent among biologics (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.06-3.52; P = .03), therapeutics indicated for the treatment of psychiatric disease (IRR = 3.78; 95% CI, 1.77-8.06; P < .001), those receiving accelerated approval (IRR = 2.20; 95% CI, 1.15-4.21; P = .02), and those with near–regulatory deadline approval (IRR = 1.90; 95% CI, 1.19-3.05; P = .008); events were statistically significantly less frequent among those with regulatory review times less than 200 days (IRR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.24-0.87; P = .02). Conclusions and Relevance Among 222 novel therapeutics approved by the FDA from 2001 through 2010, 32% were affected by a postmarket safety event. Biologics, psychiatric therapeutics, and accelerated and near–regulatory deadline approval were statistically significantly associated with higher rates of events, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring of the safety of novel therapeutics throughout their life cycle. PMID:28492899

Postmarket Safety Events Among Novel Therapeutics Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration Between 2001 and 2010.

PubMed

Downing, Nicholas S; Shah, Nilay D; Aminawung, Jenerius A; Pease, Alison M; Zeitoun, Jean-David; Krumholz, Harlan M; Ross, Joseph S

2017-05-09

Postmarket safety events of novel pharmaceuticals and biologics occur when new safety risks are identified after initial regulatory approval of these therapeutics. These safety events can change how novel therapeutics are used in clinical practice and inform patient and clinician decision making. To characterize the frequency of postmarket safety events among novel therapeutics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and to examine whether any novel therapeutic characteristics known at the time of FDA approval were associated with increased risk. Cohort study of all novel therapeutics approved by the FDA between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2010, followed up through February 28, 2017. Novel therapeutic characteristics known at the time of FDA approval, including drug class, therapeutic area, priority review, accelerated approval, orphan status, near-regulatory deadline approval, and regulatory review time. A composite of (1) withdrawals due to safety concerns, (2) FDA issuance of incremental boxed warnings added in the postmarket period, and (3) FDA issuance of safety communications. From 2001 through 2010, the FDA approved 222 novel therapeutics (183 pharmaceuticals and 39 biologics). There were 123 new postmarket safety events (3 withdrawals, 61 boxed warnings, and 59 safety communications) during a median follow-up period of 11.7 years (interquartile range [IQR], 8.7-13.8 years), affecting 71 (32.0%) of the novel therapeutics. The median time from approval to first postmarket safety event was 4.2 years (IQR, 2.5-6.0 years), and the proportion of novel therapeutics affected by a postmarket safety event at 10 years was 30.8% (95% CI, 25.1%-37.5%). In multivariable analysis, postmarket safety events were statistically significantly more frequent among biologics (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.06-3.52; P = .03), therapeutics indicated for the treatment of psychiatric disease (IRR = 3.78; 95% CI, 1.77-8.06; P < .001), those receiving accelerated approval (IRR = 2.20; 95% CI, 1.15-4.21; P = .02), and those with near-regulatory deadline approval (IRR = 1.90; 95% CI, 1.19-3.05; P = .008); events were statistically significantly less frequent among those with regulatory review times less than 200 days (IRR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.24-0.87; P = .02). Among 222 novel therapeutics approved by the FDA from 2001 through 2010, 32% were affected by a postmarket safety event. Biologics, psychiatric therapeutics, and accelerated and near-regulatory deadline approval were statistically significantly associated with higher rates of events, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring of the safety of novel therapeutics throughout their life cycle.

Thiazide diuretic prophylaxis for kidney stones and the risk of diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Singh, Prince; Knoedler, John J; Krambeck, Amy E; Lieske, John C; Bergstralh, Eric J; Rule, Andrew D

2014-12-01

Thiazide diuretics used to treat hypertension are associated with a modest risk of diabetes mellitus. It is unknown if there is a similar risk with kidney stone prevention. We identified and validated incident stone formers in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1984 to 2011 with manual review of medical records using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The risk of diabetes mellitus after thiazide therapy was evaluated with and without multivariate adjustment for hypertension, age, gender, race, family history of stones, body mass index and number of stone events. Among 2,350 incident stone formers with a median followup of 10 years, 332 (14%) were treated with thiazide diuretics at some point after the first stone event and 84 (3.6%) received the thiazide diuretic only for kidney stone prevention. Stone formers who received thiazide diuretics were more likely to be older, have hypertension, have higher body mass index and have more stone events. The incidence of diabetes mellitus at 10 years after the first stone event was 9.2% in the group that received thiazide diuretics vs 4.2% in those who did not (HR 2.91; 95% CI 2.02, 4.20). After multivariate adjustment the risk of diabetes mellitus was attenuated (HR 1.20; 95% CI 0.78, 1.83). The risk of diabetes mellitus among those receiving thiazide diuretics solely for kidney stones was further attenuated (multivariate adjusted HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.28, 2.23). Thiazide diuretic use for kidney stone prophylaxis was not associated with a high risk of diabetes mellitus. Larger studies are needed to determine if there is a modest risk of diabetes mellitus with thiazide diuretics. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components.

PubMed

Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

2017-08-01

Many time series are considered to be a superposition of several oscillation components. We have proposed a method for decomposing univariate time series into oscillation components and estimating their phases (Matsuda & Komaki, 2017 ). In this study, we extend that method to multivariate time series. We assume that several oscillators underlie the given multivariate time series and that each variable corresponds to a superposition of the projections of the oscillators. Thus, the oscillators superpose on each variable with amplitude and phase modulation. Based on this idea, we develop gaussian linear state-space models and use them to decompose the given multivariate time series. The model parameters are estimated from data using the empirical Bayes method, and the number of oscillators is determined using the Akaike information criterion. Therefore, the proposed method extracts underlying oscillators in a data-driven manner and enables investigation of phase dynamics in a given multivariate time series. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method. From monthly mean north-south sunspot number data, the proposed method reveals an interesting phase relationship.

Multivariate meta-analysis: potential and promise.

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Riley, Richard; White, Ian R

2011-09-10

The multivariate random effects model is a generalization of the standard univariate model. Multivariate meta-analysis is becoming more commonly used and the techniques and related computer software, although continually under development, are now in place. In order to raise awareness of the multivariate methods, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages, we organized a one day 'Multivariate meta-analysis' event at the Royal Statistical Society. In addition to disseminating the most recent developments, we also received an abundance of comments, concerns, insights, critiques and encouragement. This article provides a balanced account of the day's discourse. By giving others the opportunity to respond to our assessment, we hope to ensure that the various view points and opinions are aired before multivariate meta-analysis simply becomes another widely used de facto method without any proper consideration of it by the medical statistics community. We describe the areas of application that multivariate meta-analysis has found, the methods available, the difficulties typically encountered and the arguments for and against the multivariate methods, using four representative but contrasting examples. We conclude that the multivariate methods can be useful, and in particular can provide estimates with better statistical properties, but also that these benefits come at the price of making more assumptions which do not result in better inference in every case. Although there is evidence that multivariate meta-analysis has considerable potential, it must be even more carefully applied than its univariate counterpart in practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multivariate meta-analysis: Potential and promise

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; Riley, Richard; White, Ian R

2011-01-01

The multivariate random effects model is a generalization of the standard univariate model. Multivariate meta-analysis is becoming more commonly used and the techniques and related computer software, although continually under development, are now in place. In order to raise awareness of the multivariate methods, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages, we organized a one day ‘Multivariate meta-analysis’ event at the Royal Statistical Society. In addition to disseminating the most recent developments, we also received an abundance of comments, concerns, insights, critiques and encouragement. This article provides a balanced account of the day's discourse. By giving others the opportunity to respond to our assessment, we hope to ensure that the various view points and opinions are aired before multivariate meta-analysis simply becomes another widely used de facto method without any proper consideration of it by the medical statistics community. We describe the areas of application that multivariate meta-analysis has found, the methods available, the difficulties typically encountered and the arguments for and against the multivariate methods, using four representative but contrasting examples. We conclude that the multivariate methods can be useful, and in particular can provide estimates with better statistical properties, but also that these benefits come at the price of making more assumptions which do not result in better inference in every case. Although there is evidence that multivariate meta-analysis has considerable potential, it must be even more carefully applied than its univariate counterpart in practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:21268052

EEG oscillations and recognition memory: theta correlates of memory retrieval and decision making.

PubMed

Jacobs, Joshua; Hwang, Grace; Curran, Tim; Kahana, Michael J

2006-08-15

Studies of memory retrieval have identified electroencephalographic (EEG) correlates of a test item's old-new status, reaction time, and memory load. In the current study, we used a multivariate analysis to disentangle the effects of these correlated variables. During retrieval, power of left-parietal theta (4-8 Hz) oscillations increased in proportion to how well a test item was remembered, and theta in central regions correlated with decision making. We also studied how these oscillatory dynamics complemented event-related potentials. These findings are the first to demonstrate that distinct patterns of theta oscillations can simultaneously relate to different aspects of behavior.

Cross-country transferability of multi-variable damage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenaar, Dennis; Lüdtke, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Bouwer, Laurens

2017-04-01

Flood damage assessment is often done with simple damage curves based only on flood water depth. Additionally, damage models are often transferred in space and time, e.g. from region to region or from one flood event to another. Validation has shown that depth-damage curve estimates are associated with high uncertainties, particularly when applied in regions outside the area where the data for curve development was collected. Recently, progress has been made with multi-variable damage models created with data-mining techniques, i.e. Bayesian Networks and random forest. However, it is still unknown to what extent and under which conditions model transfers are possible and reliable. Model validations in different countries will provide valuable insights into the transferability of multi-variable damage models. In this study we compare multi-variable models developed on basis of flood damage datasets from Germany as well as from The Netherlands. Data from several German floods was collected using computer aided telephone interviews. Data from the 1993 Meuse flood in the Netherlands is available, based on compensations paid by the government. The Bayesian network and random forest based models are applied and validated in both countries on basis of the individual datasets. A major challenge was the harmonization of the variables between both datasets due to factors like differences in variable definitions, and regional and temporal differences in flood hazard and exposure characteristics. Results of model validations and comparisons in both countries are discussed, particularly in respect to encountered challenges and possible solutions for an improvement of model transferability.

Event Reconstruction in the PandaRoot framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spataro, Stefano

2012-12-01

The PANDA experiment will study the collisions of beams of anti-protons, with momenta ranging from 2-15 GeV/c, with fixed proton and nuclear targets in the charm energy range, and will be built at the FAIR facility. In preparation for the experiment, the PandaRoot software framework is under development for detector simulation, reconstruction and data analysis, running on an Alien2-based grid. The basic features are handled by the FairRoot framework, based on ROOT and Virtual Monte Carlo, while the PANDA detector specifics and reconstruction code are implemented inside PandaRoot. The realization of Technical Design Reports for the tracking detectors has pushed the finalization of the tracking reconstruction code, which is complete for the Target Spectrometer, and of the analysis tools. Particle Identification algorithms are currently implemented using Bayesian approach and compared to Multivariate Analysis methods. Moreover, the PANDA data acquisition foresees a triggerless operation in which events are not defined by a hardware 1st level trigger decision, but all the signals are stored with time stamps requiring a deconvolution by the software. This has led to a redesign of the software from an event basis to a time-ordered structure. In this contribution, the reconstruction capabilities of the Panda spectrometer will be reported, focusing on the performances of the tracking system and the results for the analysis of physics benchmark channels, as well as the new (and challenging) concept of time-based simulation and its implementation.

Impact of some types of mass gatherings on current suicide risk in an urban population: statistical and negative binominal regression analysis of time series.

PubMed

Usenko, Vasiliy S; Svirin, Sergey N; Shchekaturov, Yan N; Ponarin, Eduard D

2014-04-04

Many studies have investigated the impact of a wide range of social events on suicide-related behaviour. However, these studies have predominantly examined national events. The aim of this study is to provide a statistical evaluation of the relationship between mass gatherings in some relatively small urban sub-populations and the general suicide rates of a major city. The data were gathered in the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk, with a population of 1 million people, in 2005-2010. Suicide attempts, suicides, and the total amount of suicide-related behaviours were registered daily for each sex. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis, including negative binomial regression, were applied to assess the risk of suicide-related behaviour in the city's general population for 7 days before and after 427 mass gatherings, such as concerts, football games, and non-regular mass events organized by the Orthodox Church and new religious movements. The bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses found significant changes in some suicide-related behaviour rates in the city's population after certain kinds of mass gatherings. In particular, we observed an increased relative risk (RR) of male suicide-related behaviour after a home defeat of the local football team (RR = 1.32, p = 0.047; regression coefficient beta = 0.371, p = 0.002), and an increased risk of male suicides (RR = 1.29, p = 0.006; beta =0.255, p = 0.002), male suicide-related behaviour (RR = 1.25, p = 0.019; beta =0.251, p < 0.001), and total suicide-related behaviour (RR = 1.23 p < 0.001; beta =0.187, p < 0.001) after events organized by the new religious movements. Although football games and mass events organized by new religious movements involved a relatively small part of an urban population (1.6 and 0.3%, respectively), we observed a significant increase of the some suicide-related behaviour rates in the whole population. It is likely that the observed effect on suicide-related behaviour is related to one's personal presence at the event rather than to its broadcast. Our findings can be explained largely in terms of Gabennesch's theory of the 'broken-promises effect' with regard to intra- and interpersonal conflict and, in terms of crowd behaviour effects.

Intraoperative adverse events can be compensated by technical performance in neonates and infants after cardiac surgery: a prospective study.

PubMed

Nathan, Meena; Karamichalis, John M; Liu, Hua; del Nido, Pedro; Pigula, Frank; Thiagarajan, Ravi; Bacha, Emile A

2011-11-01

Our objective was to define the relationship between surgical technical performance score, intraoperative adverse events, and major postoperative adverse events in complex pediatric cardiac repairs. Infants younger than 6 months were prospectively followed up until discharge from the hospital. Technical performance scores were graded as optimal, adequate, or inadequate based on discharge echocardiograms and need for reintervention after initial surgery. Case complexity was determined by Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) category, and preoperative illness severity was assessed by Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) III score. Intraoperative adverse events were prospectively monitored. Outcomes were analyzed using nonparametric methods and a logistic regression model. A total of 166 patients (RACHS 4-6 [49%]), neonates [50%]) were observed. Sixty-one (37%) had at least 1 intraoperative adverse event, and 47 (28.3%) had at least 1 major postoperative adverse event. There was no correlation between intraoperative adverse events and RACHS, preoperative PRISM III, technical performance score, or postoperative adverse events on multivariate analysis. For the entire cohort, better technical performance score resulted in lower postoperative adverse events, lower postoperative PRISM, and lower length of stay and ventilation time (P < .001). Patients requiring intraoperative revisions fared as well as patients without, provided the technical score was at least adequate. In neonatal and infant open heart repairs, technical performance score is one of the main predictors of postoperative morbidity. Outcomes are not affected by intraoperative adverse events, including surgical revisions, provided technical performance score is at least adequate. Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Dosimetric Predictors of Symptomatic Cardiac Events after Conventional-Dose Chemoradiation Therapy for Inoperable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Yegya-Raman, Nikhil; Wang, Kyle; Kim, Sinae; Reyhan, Meral; Deek, Matthew P; Sayan, Mutlay; Li, Diana; Patel, Malini; Malhotra, Jyoti; Aisner, Joseph; Marks, Lawrence B; Jabbour, Salma K

2018-06-05

We hypothesized that higher cardiac doses correlates with clinically significant cardiotoxicity after standard-dose chemoradiation therapy (CRT) (∼60 Gy) for inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 140 patients with inoperable NSCLC treated with concurrent CRT from 2007-2015. Extracted data included baseline cardiac status, dosimetric parameters to the whole heart (WH) and cardiac substructures, and the development of post-CRT symptomatic cardiac events (acute coronary syndrome [ACS], arrhythmia, pericardial effusion, pericarditis, and congestive heart failure [CHF]). Competing risks analysis was used to estimate time to cardiac events. Median follow-up was 47.4 months. Median radiation therapy dose was 61.2 Gy (interquartile range, 60-66 Gy). Forty patients (28.6%) developed 47 symptomatic cardiac events at a median of 15.3 months to first event. On multivariate analysis, higher WH doses and baseline cardiac status were associated with an increased risk of symptomatic cardiac events. The 4-year cumulative incidence of symptomatic cardiac events was 48.6% versus 18.5% for mean WH dose ≥ 20 Gy versus < 20 Gy, respectively (p = 0.0002). Doses to the WH, ventricles, and left anterior descending artery were associated with ACS/CHF, whereas doses to the WH and atria were not associated with supraventricular arrhythmias. Symptomatic cardiac events (p = 0.0001) were independently associated with death. Incidental cardiac irradiation was associated with subsequent symptomatic cardiac events, particularly ACS/CHF, and symptomatic cardiac events were associated with inferior survival. These results support the minimization of cardiac doses among patients with inoperable NSCLC receiving standard-dose CRT. Copyright © 2018 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

C-reactive protein gene C1444T polymorphism and risk of recurrent ischemic events in patients with symptomatic intracranial atherostenoses.

PubMed

Arenillas, Juan F; Massot, Andreu; Alvarez-Sabín, Jose; Fernandez-Cadenas, Israel; del Rio-Espinola, Albert; Chacon, Pilar; Quintana, Manuel; Molina, Carlos A; Rovira, Alex; Montaner, Joan

2009-01-01

High levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are associated with an increased risk of further ischemic events in patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD). It remains unknown to which extent this increased risk might be genetically predetermined. We aimed to investigate the relationship between a common genetic polymorphism of the CRP gene and the risk of recurrent ischemic events in symptomatic ICAD patients. We studied 75 consecutive patients with a first-ever cerebral ischemic event attributable to symptomatic ICAD. Blood samples were drawn 3 months after the qualifying event. Genomic DNA was isolated and the C1444T single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the CRP gene was determined. The blood concentration of CRP was also measured. Patients underwent long-term clinical follow-up to detect the occurrence of further major ischemic events. During a median follow-up time of 23 months, 18 patients (24%) suffered a major ischemic event (10 ischemic strokes, 3 transient ischemic attacks and 5 myocardial infarctions). Raised CRP levels at baseline (p = 0.02) and the presence of the T allele within the CRP C1444T SNP were associated with a higher risk of recurrent ischemic events (p = 0.02). Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, vascular risk factors and CRP level identified that the presence of the T allele in the studied polymorphism predicted the occurrence of further ischemic events (hazard ratio 3.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2-11.1; p = 0.025). The presence of the T allele within the CRP gene C1444T polymorphism may be associated with a higher risk of further ischemic events in symptomatic ICAD patients. (c) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Survey of the incidence and effect of major life events on graduate medical education trainees

PubMed Central

Grimm, Lars J.; Nagler, Alisa; Maxfield, Charles M.

2015-01-01

Purpose This study aims to assess the incidence of major life events during graduate medical education (GME) training and to establish any associations with modifiable activities and career planning. Methods The authors surveyed graduating GME trainees from their parent institution in June 2013. Demographic information (clinical department, gender, training duration) and major life events (marriage, children, death/illness, home purchase, legal troubles, property loss) were surveyed. Respondents were queried about the relationship between life events and career planning. A multivariable logistic regression model tested for associations. Results A total of 53.2% (166/312) of graduates responded to the survey. 50% (83/166) of respondents were female. Major life events occurred in 96.4% (160/166) of respondents. Male trainees were more likely (56.1% [46/82] vs. 30.1% [25/83]) to have a child during training (p=0.01). A total of 41.6% (69/166) of responders consciously engaged or avoided activities during GME training, while 31.9% (53/166) of responders reported that life events influenced their career plans. Trainees in lifestyle residencies (p=0.02), those who experienced the death or illness of a close associate (p=0.01), and those with legal troubles (p=0.04) were significantly more likely to consciously control life events. Conclusion Major life events are very common and changed career plans in nearly a third of GME trainees. Furthermore, many trainees consciously avoided activities due to their responsibilities during training. GME training programs should closely assess the institutional support systems available to trainees during this difficult time. PMID:26070948

The Fibroid Registry for outcomes data (FIBROID) for uterine embolization: short-term outcomes.

PubMed

Worthington-Kirsch, Robert; Spies, James B; Myers, Evan R; Mulgund, Jyotsna; Mauro, Matthew; Pron, Gaylene; Peterson, Eric D; Goodwin, Scott

2005-07-01

To investigate the short-term safety of uterine embolization for leiomyomata in a large cohort of patients treated in a variety of clinical settings. Examining the FIBROID Registry, a multicenter prospective voluntary registry of patients undergoing uterine embolization for leiomyomata, we studied the frequency of adverse events and predictors of adverse events within 30 days of the procedure. We also report on the technical aspects of the procedure, including details of periprocedural care, technique, and short-term recovery. All adverse events were recorded and classified using standard definitions, both in terms of type and severity. Summary statistics were used to describe the data set, and univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine which factors might influence the incidence of adverse events. Of the 3,160 patients enrolled at 72 contributing sites, major in-hospital complications occurred in 0.66%, and postdischarge major events occurred in 4.8% within the first 30 days. The most common adverse event after discharge was inadequate pain relief requiring additional hospital treatment (2.4%). Thirty-one patients required additional surgical intervention within 30 days after treatment, 3 of whom required hysterectomy (0.1%). There were no deaths. Multivariate analysis showed modest increased odds for an adverse event for African Americans, smokers, and those with prior leiomyoma procedures. There were no differences in outcome based on the practice site experience, practice type, or any procedure-related factors. Uterine embolization for leiomyomata is a low-risk procedure with little variability in short-term outcome based on either patient demographics or practice setting. II-3.

Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

Systemic lupus erythematosus in a multiethnic US cohort (LUMINA): XXI. Disease activity, damage accrual, and vascular events in pre- and postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Fernández, Mónica; Calvo-Alén, Jaime; Alarcón, Graciela S; Roseman, Jeffrey M; Bastian, Holly M; Fessler, Barri J; McGwin, Gerald; Vilá, Luis M; Sanchez, Martha L; Reveille, John D

2005-06-01

To determine the differences in clinical manifestations, disease activity, damage accrual, and medication use in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients as a function of menopausal status at disease onset. Women with SLE as per the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology, with disease duration of 6 months, and/or oophorectomy, and/or increased follicle-stimulating hormone values for reproductive-age women, and/or treatment with hormone replacement therapy. Patients were divided into premenopausal and postmenopausal categories. Socioeconomic status, cumulative clinical manifestations, disease activity (at study entry or time 0, last visit, and over time), as measured by the Systemic Lupus Activity Measure, and damage accrual, as measured by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology damage index (at time 0 and at last visit) were compared between the 2 groups of women. Multivariable models were then examined making adjustments for all possible known confounders. Dependent variables in the models were renal involvement, damage accrual, arterial vascular events, and venous thrombosis. Five hundred eighteen women from the LUMINA cohort were included; 436 (84.2%) were premenopausal and 82 (15.8%) were postmenopausal. Disease onset after menopause was more common among Caucasians. Renal involvement was more common in premenopausal women, whereas vascular arterial events were more frequent in postmenopausal women. All other disease manifestations, as well as disease activity, were comparable between both groups. The presence of damage accrual at time 0 and study end was more frequent in postmenopausal women. Age, rather than menopausal status, independently contributed to damage accrual, renal involvement, and vascular arterial events in these women. A hypoestrogenemic state secondary to menopause appears not to be protective against disease activity and damage accrual. Age rather than menopausal status is a strong independent predictor of damage accrual and of vascular events in women with lupus.

[Factors associated with violence against healthcare workers: results of the European Presst-Next study].

PubMed

Estryn-Behar, Madeleine; Duville, Nathalie; Menini, Marie-Laurène; Camerino, Donatella; Le Foll, Serge; le Nézet, Olivier; Bocher, Rachel; Van Der Heijden, Beatrice; Conway, Paul Maurice; Hasselhorn, Hans-Martin

2007-01-01

The respective roles of medical specialties and work organization on violent events against healthcare workers (HCW) in different countries was examined. Using the results of the Presst-Next study, we analyzed data from 27134 HCW in 7 European countries. Multivariate logistic analyses were conducted with SPSS 12 software. After adjustment for age, gender and other occupational risk factors, the factors indicating insufficient team work were highly associated with an increased risk of violent events. Dissatisfaction with shift change (OR=1.35; 95%CI 1.23-1.47), uncertainty about treatment (OR=1.57; 95%CI 1 .44-1.71), and frequent interruptions (OR=2.04; 95%CI 1.81-2.31) were linked to violent events, up to twice the number among HCW reporting better team work. Contradictory orders, dissatisfaction with psychological support, and harassment by superiors were all significantly associated with increased reporting of frequent violent events. We observed a positive gradient between violent events and job demand (time pressure) (OR=1.25 for an intermediate score and OR=1.55 for a high score, compared with a low score). Loneliness at work, certain work schedules, and physical load increased the risk. Nurses' aides were exposed to violent events more often (OR=1.57; 95%CI 1.38-1.79) than head nurses. Older HCW and those with more experience were less exposed. The highest risks were associated with working in psychiatric (OR=4.89; 95%CI 3.82-6.25) and emergency (OR=2.68; 95%CI 2.10-3.44) departments, compared with home care and day care. The excess risk was an additional 30% in geriatrics and long-stay departments. Significantly less risk was observed in pediatrics, obstetrics and gynecology departments (OR=0.70; 95%CI 0.56-0.88). Team building requires time, and shift change is a key period. This time is far from nonproductive. Rather, its effective use reduces treatment errors, enhances quality of care, and reduces the frequency of violent events. It is crucial in every department.

Primary intervention for memory structuring and meaning acquisition (PIMSMA): study of a mental health first-aid intervention in the ED with injured survivors of suicide bombing attacks.

PubMed

Schreiber, Shaul; Dolberg, Ornah T; Barkai, Gabriel; Peles, Einat; Leor, Agnes; Rapoport, Elena; Heinik, Jeremia; Bloch, Miki

2007-01-01

To assess the impact of a structured intervention, the "primary intervention for memory structuring and meaning acquisition" (PIMSMA) performed randomly in the emergency department with survivors of suicide bombing attacks, on their medium-term mental health outcome. Follow up and assessment 3-9 months postinjury, and 24 months thereafter. A tertiary referral general hospital in Tel Aviv, Israel. Injured survivors of 9 suicide bombing and suicide shooting, men and women aged 16-72 at the time of the incident. Diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was made using the Hebrew validated version of the DSM-IV SCID-PTSD rating scale. Other psychiatric symptoms were assessed using the following rating scales: impact of event scale (IES), Hamilton rating scale for depression (HAM-D) and for anxiety (HAM-A), and the Pittsburgh sleep quality index (PSQI). Effects of PIMSMA and PTSD level of psychological distress were analyzed using ANOVA and for change over time for continuous variables repeated measured multivariate analyses was performed, and for categorical variables nonparametric-related sample McNemar. Logistic regression for variable associated with PTSD was performed. Out of 213 eligible injured survivors evacuated to our ER, 129 were retrieved 3-9 months after the incident, and 53 were available for assessment 2 years later. Multivariate analyses for being PTSD vs non-PTSD at the first evaluation, being hospitalized OR = 5.6 (95 percent CI 1.1-27.6) and treated OR = 24.5 (95 percent CI 2.8-200) were the only predictors, with no effect (p = 0.9) for PIMSMA vs other supportive intervention. Predictor for PTSD at the second evaluation were IES severity score at first evaluation OR = 1.1 (95 percent CI 1.04-1.2). The PIMSMA approach is as good as the nonspecific supportive treatment performed routinely in the ED with all survivors of traumatic events of any origin. Further studies are needed to establish valid, evidence-based treatment approaches for the acute aftermath of exposure to severe potentially traumatic events.

A false dichotomy? Mental illness and lone-actor terrorism.

PubMed

Corner, Emily; Gill, Paul

2015-02-01

We test whether significant differences in mental illness exist in a matched sample of lone- and group-based terrorists. We then test whether there are distinct behavioral differences between lone-actor terrorists with and without mental illness. We then stratify our sample across a range of diagnoses and again test whether significant differences exist. We conduct a series of bivariate, multivariate, and multinomial statistical tests using a unique dataset of 119 lone-actor terrorists and a matched sample of group-based terrorists. The odds of a lone-actor terrorist having a mental illness is 13.49 times higher than the odds of a group actor having a mental illness. Lone actors who were mentally ill were 18.07 times more likely to have a spouse or partner who was involved in a wider movement than those without a history of mental illness. Those with a mental illness were more likely to have a proximate upcoming life change, more likely to have been a recent victim of prejudice, and experienced proximate and chronic stress. The results identify behaviors and traits that security agencies can utilize to monitor and prevent lone-actor terrorism events. The correlated behaviors provide an image of how risk can crystalize within the individual offender and that our understanding of lone-actor terrorism should be multivariate in nature.

Safety and effectiveness of olanzapine in monotherapy: a multivariate analysis of a naturalistic study.

PubMed

Ciudad, Antonio; Gutiérrez, Miguel; Cañas, Fernando; Gibert, Juan; Gascón, Josep; Carrasco, José-Luis; Bobes, Julio; Gómez, Juan-Carlos; Alvarez, Enrique

2005-07-01

This study investigated safety and effectiveness of olanzapine in monotherapy compared with conventional antipsychotics in treatment of acute inpatients with schizophrenia. This was a prospective, comparative, nonrandomized, open-label, multisite, observational study of Spanish inpatients with an acute episode of schizophrenia. Data included safety assessments with an extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS) questionnaire and the report of spontaneous adverse events, plus clinical assessments with the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) and the Clinical Global Impressions-Severity of Illness (CGI-S). A multivariate methodology was used to more adequately determine which factors can influence safety and effectiveness of olanzapine in monotherapy. 339 patients treated with olanzapine in monotherapy (OGm) and 385 patients treated with conventional antipsychotics (CG) were included in the analysis. Treatment-emergent EPS were significantly higher in the CG (p<0.0001). Response rate was significantly higher in the OGm (p=0.005). Logistic regression analyses revealed that the only variable significantly correlated with treatment-emergent EPS and clinical response was treatment strategy, with patients in OGm having 1.5 times the probability of obtaining a clinical response and patients in CG having 5 times the risk of developing EPS. In this naturalistic study olanzapine in monotherapy was better-tolerated and at least as effective as conventional antipsychotics.

Predicting Intracranial Pressure and Brain Tissue Oxygen Crises in Patients With Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Myers, Risa B; Lazaridis, Christos; Jermaine, Christopher M; Robertson, Claudia S; Rusin, Craig G

2016-09-01

To develop computer algorithms that can recognize physiologic patterns in traumatic brain injury patients that occur in advance of intracranial pressure and partial brain tissue oxygenation crises. The automated early detection of crisis precursors can provide clinicians with time to intervene in order to prevent or mitigate secondary brain injury. A retrospective study was conducted from prospectively collected physiologic data. intracranial pressure, and partial brain tissue oxygenation crisis events were defined as intracranial pressure of greater than or equal to 20 mm Hg lasting at least 15 minutes and partial brain tissue oxygenation value of less than 10 mm Hg for at least 10 minutes, respectively. The physiologic data preceding each crisis event were used to identify precursors associated with crisis onset. Multivariate classification models were applied to recorded data in 30-minute epochs of time to predict crises between 15 and 360 minutes in the future. The neurosurgical unit of Ben Taub Hospital (Houston, TX). Our cohort consisted of 817 subjects with severe traumatic brain injury. Our algorithm can predict the onset of intracranial pressure crises with 30-minute advance warning with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 using only intracranial pressure measurements and time since last crisis. An analogous algorithm can predict the start of partial brain tissue oxygenation crises with 30-minute advanced warning with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. Our algorithms provide accurate and timely predictions of intracranial hypertension and tissue hypoxia crises in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Almost all of the information needed to predict the onset of these events is contained within the signal of interest and the time since last crisis.

The association between high on-treatment platelet reactivity and early recurrence of ischemic events after minor stroke or TIA.

PubMed

Rao, Zilong; Zheng, Huaguang; Wang, Fei; Wang, Anxin; Liu, Liping; Dong, Kehui; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yilong; Cao, Yibin

2017-08-01

To evaluate the role of HTPR in predicting early recurrence of ischemic events in patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA. From January 2014 to September 2014, a single center continuously enrolled patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA and gave them antiplatelet therapy consisting of aspirin with clopidogrel. HTPR was assessed by TEG after 7 days of antiplatelet therapy and detected CYP2C19 genotype. The incidence of recurrent ischemic events was assessed 3 months after onset. The incidence of recurrent ischemic events was compared between the HTPR and NTPR groups with the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the risk factors associated with recurrent ischemic events. We enrolled 278 eligible patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA. Through TEG testing, patients with HTPR were 22.7%, and carriers were not associated with HTPR to ADP by TEG-ADP(%) (p = 0.193). A total of 265 patients completed 3 months of follow-up, and Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with HTPR had a higher percentage of recurrent ischemic events compared with patients with NTPR (p = 0.002). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, history of ischemic stroke or TIA (HR 4.45, 95% CI 1.77-11.16, p = 0.001) and HTPR (HR 3.34, 95% CI 1.41-7.91, p = 0.006) was independently associated with recurrent ischemic events. In patients with minor stroke or TIA, the prevalence of HTPR was 22.7%, and HTPR was independently associated with recurrent ischemic events.

Evacuation of Swedish survivors after the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami: The survivors' perspective and symptoms of post-traumatic stress.

PubMed

Gudmundsdottir, Ragnhildur; Hultman, Christina M; Valdimarsdottir, Unnur

2018-04-01

Following the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami, Swedish authorities received public criticism for slow implementation of rescue work. Meanwhile, data are scarce on survivors' perspectives and potential mental health symptoms associated with timing of evacuation. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate survivors' contentment with evacuation time and whether duration at disaster site following the 2004 tsunami was associated with post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and psychological morbidity. Of 10,116 Swedish tsunami survivors who returned to Sweden in the first 3 weeks post tsunami, 4910 (49%) answered a questionnaire 14 months later including questions on evacuation time, contentment with evacuation time and PTSS (Impact of Event Scale). We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of PTSS by timing of evacuation adjusting for gender, age, education, various indicators of trauma exposure and pre-tsunami psychiatric diagnoses. More than half of the survivors (53%) were content with evacuation time while 33% wanted later evacuation and 13% earlier evacuation. Compared with those evacuated 14-21 days post tsunami, individuals evacuated at day 1-4 presented with increased odds of PTSS (crude OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.0-4.5; and multivariable adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-3.0) and impaired mental health (crude OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4; and multivariable adjusted OR 1.4 95% CI 1.0-2.0). One-third of Swedish tsunami survivors preferred a later evacuation from disaster sites. These findings call for further studies, with prospective designs, to disentangle the causal direction of the association between evacuation time and PTSS.

Real-time realizations of the Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, V.; Arrowsmith, S.; Hofstetter, A.; Nippress, A.

2015-12-01

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization method (BISL), introduced by Mordak et al. (2010) and upgraded by Marcillo et al. (2014) is destined for the accurate estimation of the atmospheric event origin at local, regional and global scales by the seismic and infrasonic networks and arrays. The BISL is based on probabilistic models of the source-station infrasonic signal propagation time, picking time and azimuth estimate merged with a prior knowledge about celerity distribution. It requires at each hypothetical source location, integration of the product of the corresponding source-station likelihood functions multiplied by a prior probability density function of celerity over the multivariate parameter space. The present BISL realization is generally time-consuming procedure based on numerical integration. The computational scheme proposed simplifies the target function so that integrals are taken exactly and are represented via standard functions. This makes the procedure much faster and realizable in real-time without practical loss of accuracy. The procedure executed as PYTHON-FORTRAN code demonstrates high performance on a set of the model and real data.

Exercise electrocardiogram in middle-aged and older leisure time sportsmen: 100 exercise tests would be enough to identify one silent myocardial ischemia at risk for cardiac event.

PubMed

Hupin, David; Edouard, Pascal; Oriol, Mathieu; Laukkanen, Jari; Abraham, Pierre; Doutreleau, Stéphane; Guy, Jean-Michel; Carré, François; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude; Roche, Frédéric; Chatard, Jean-Claude

2018-04-15

The importance of exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) has been controversial in the prevention of cardiac events among sportsmen. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of silent myocardial ischemia (SMI) from an exercise ECG and its relationship with induced coronary angiographic assessment and potentially preventable cardiac events. This prospective cohort study included leisure time asymptomatic sportsmen over 35years old, referred from 2011 to 2014 in the Sports Medicine Unit of the University Hospital of Saint-Etienne. Of the cohort of 1500 sportsmen (1205 men; mean age 50.7±9.4years; physical activity level 32.8±26.8MET-h/week), 951 (63%) had at least one cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. Family history, medical examination and standard resting 12-lead were collected. A total of 163 exercise ECGs (10.9%) were defined as positive, most of them due to SMI (n=129, 8.6%). SMI was an indication for coronary angiography in 23 cases, leading to 17 documented SMIs (1.1%), including 11 significant stenoses requiring revascularization. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high risk of CVD (OR=2.65 [CI 95%: 1.33-5.27], p=0.005) and an age >50years (OR=2.71 [CI 95%: 1.65-4.44], p<0.0001) were independently associated with confirmed SMI. The association of positive exercise ECG with significant coronary stenosis was stronger among sportsmen with CVD risk factors and older than 50years. Screening by exercise ECG can lower the risk of cardiac events in middle-aged and older sportsmen. One hundred tests would be enough to detect one silent myocardial ischemia at risk for cardiac event. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The association between social marginalisation and the injecting of alcohol amongst IDUs in Budapest, Hungary.

PubMed

Gyarmathy, V Anna; Neaigus, Alan

2011-09-01

Alcohol injecting may cause intense irritation, serious vein damage, and additional risks. What little is known about alcohol injecting points to the potential role of social marginalisation. Injecting drug users (N=215) were recruited between October 2005 and December 2006 in Budapest, Hungary from non-treatment settings. Multivariate logistic regression models identified correlates of lifetime alcohol injecting. About a quarter (23%) reported ever injecting alcohol-only 3% reported injecting alcohol in the past 30 days. In multivariate analysis, six variables were statistically significantly associated with ever injecting alcohol: male gender, being homeless, ever sharing cookers or filters and injecting mostly in public places showed a positive association, whilst Roma ethnicity and working at least part time showed a negative association. Our study suggests that alcohol injecting is more of a rare event than a so far undiscovered research and prevention priority. Still, providers of harm reduction services should be aware that alcohol injecting happens, albeit rarely, especially amongst socially marginalised IDUs, who should be counselled about the risks of and discouraged from alcohol injecting. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Treatment effect expressed as the novel Delay of Event measure is associated with high willingness to initiate preventive treatment - A randomized survey experiment comparing effect measures.

PubMed

Berglund, Erik; Westerling, Ragnar; Sundström, Johan; Lytsy, Per

2016-12-01

This study aimed to investigate patients' willingness to initiate a preventive treatment and compared two established effect measures to the newly developed Delay of Events (DoE) measure that expresses treatment effect as a gain in event-free time. In this cross-sectional, randomized survey experiment in the general Swedish population,1079 respondents (response rate 60.9%) were asked to consider a preventive cardiovascular treatment. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of three effect descriptions: DoE, relative risk reduction (RRR), or absolute risk reduction (ARR). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed investigating willingness to initiate treatment, views on treatment benefit, motivation and importance to adhere and willingness to pay for treatment. Eighty-one percent were willing to take the medication when the effect was described as DoE, 83.0% when it was described as RRR and 62.8% when it was described as ARR. DoE and RRR was further associated with positive views on treatment benefit, motivation, importance to adhere and WTP. Presenting treatment effect as DoE or RRR was associated with a high willingness to initiate treatment. An approach based on the novel time-based measure DoE may be of value in clinical communication and shared decision making. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

2015-04-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010141. Ben Ayala, M.A., Chebana, F., Ouarda, T.B.M.J. (2014). Probabilistic Gaussian Copula Regression Model for Multisite and Multivariable Downscaling, Journal of Climate, 27, 3331-3347.

The Relationships between Negative Life Events, Perceived Support in the School Environment and Depressive Symptoms among Norwegian Senior High School Students: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murberg, Terje A.; Bru, Edvin

2009-01-01

The present study prospectively explored the main and interactive effect of negative life events and social support from teachers and classroom peers on depressive symptoms in a sample of 198 (111 females, 87 males) students in a Norwegian senior high school. In the longitudinal multivariate analyses, self-reported depressive symptom levels at…

A general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction based on Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-08-01

Drought is among the costliest natural hazards worldwide and extreme drought events in recent years have caused huge losses to various sectors. Drought prediction is therefore critically important for providing early warning information to aid decision making to cope with drought. Due to the complicated nature of drought, it has been recognized that the univariate drought indicator may not be sufficient for drought characterization and hence multivariate drought indices have been developed for drought monitoring. Alongside the substantial effort in drought monitoring with multivariate drought indices, it is of equal importance to develop a drought prediction method with multivariate drought indices to integrate drought information from various sources. This study proposes a general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction that is capable of integrating complementary prediction skills from multiple drought indices. The Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP) is employed to sample from historical records for obtaining statistical prediction of multiple variables, which is then used as inputs to achieve multivariate prediction. The framework is illustrated with a linearly combined drought index (LDI), which is a commonly used multivariate drought index, based on climate division data in California and New York in the United States with different seasonality of precipitation. The predictive skill of LDI (represented with persistence) is assessed by comparison with the univariate drought index and results show that the LDI prediction skill is less affected by seasonality than the meteorological drought prediction based on SPI. Prediction results from the case study show that the proposed multivariate drought prediction outperforms the persistence prediction, implying a satisfactory performance of multivariate drought prediction. The proposed method would be useful for drought prediction to integrate drought information from various sources for early drought warning.

Cognitive Complexity of the Medical Record Is a Risk Factor for Major Adverse Events

PubMed Central

Roberson, David; Connell, Michael; Dillis, Shay; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Gore, Rebecca; Heagerty, Elaina; Jenkins, Kathy; Ma, Lin; Maurer, Amy; Stephenson, Jessica; Schwartz, Margot

2014-01-01

Context: Patients in tertiary care hospitals are more complex than in the past, but the implications of this are poorly understood because “patient complexity” has been difficult to quantify. Objective: We developed a tool, the Complexity Ruler, to quantify the amount of data (as bits) in the patient’s medical record. We designated the amount of data in the medical record as the cognitive complexity of the medical record (CCMR). We hypothesized that CCMR is a useful surrogate for true patient complexity and that higher CCMR correlates with risk of major adverse events. Design: The Complexity Ruler was validated by comparing the measured CCMR with physician rankings of patient complexity on specific inpatient services. It was tested in a case-control model of all patients with major adverse events at a tertiary care pediatric hospital from 2005 to 2006. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcome measure was an externally reported major adverse event. We measured CCMR for 24 hours before the event, and we estimated lifetime CCMR. Results: Above empirically derived cutoffs, 24-hour and lifetime CCMR were risk factors for major adverse events (odds ratios, 5.3 and 6.5, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, CCMR alone was essentially as predictive of risk as a model that started with 30-plus clinical factors. Conclusions: CCMR correlates with physician assessment of complexity and risk of adverse events. We hypothesize that increased CCMR increases the risk of physician cognitive overload. An automated version of the Complexity Ruler could allow identification of at-risk patients in real time. PMID:24626065

Increased short-term risk of thrombo-embolism or death after interruption of warfarin treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Raunsø, Jakob; Selmer, Christian; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Charlot, Mette Gitz; Olsen, Anne-Marie S; Bretler, Ditte-Marie; Nielsen, Jørn Dalsgaard; Dominguez, Helena; Gadsbøll, Niels; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock

2012-08-01

It is presently unknown whether patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risk of thrombo-embolic adverse events after interruption of warfarin treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk and timing of thrombo-embolism after warfarin treatment interruption. A retrospective, nationwide cohort study of all patients in Denmark treated with warfarin after a first hospitalization with AF in the period 1997-2008. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of thrombo-embolic events and all-cause mortality were calculated using the Poisson regression analyses. In total, 48 989 AF patients receiving warfarin treatment were included. Of these, 35 396 patients had at least one episode of warfarin treatment interruption. In all, 8255 deaths or thrombo-embolic events occurred during treatment interruption showing an initial clustering of events with 2717, 835, 500, and 427 events occurring during 0-90, 91-180, 181-270, and 271-360 days after treatment interruption, respectively. Correspondingly, the crude incidence rates were 31.6, 17.7, 12.3, and 11.4 events per 100 patient-years. In a multivariable analysis, the first 90-day interval of treatment interruption was associated with a markedly higher risk of death or thrombo-embolism (IRR 2.5; 95% confidence interval 2.3-2.8) vs. the interval of 271-360 days. In patients with AF, an interruption of warfarin treatment is associated with a significantly increased short-term risk of death or thrombo-embolic events within the first 90 days of treatment interruption.

Characteristics of Left Atrial Deformation Parameters and Their Prognostic Impact in Patients with Pathological Left Ventricular Hypertrophy: Analysis by Speckle Tracking Echocardiography.

PubMed

Iio, Chiharuko; Inoue, Katsuji; Nishimura, Kazuhisa; Fujii, Akira; Nagai, Takayuki; Suzuki, Jun; Okura, Takafumi; Higaki, Jitsuo; Ogimoto, Akiyoshi

2015-12-01

The pathological process of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy is associated with left atrial (LA) remodeling. This study was aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of LA strain parameters in patients with pathological LV hypertrophy. This study included 95 patients with hypertensive heart disease (HHD: n = 24), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM: n = 56), cardiac amyloidosis (CA: n = 15), and control subjects (n = 20). We used two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) to analyze LA global strain. LA electromechanical conduction time (EMT) at the septal (EMT-septal) and lateral wall (EMT-lateral), and their time difference (EMT-diff) were calculated. The incidence of cardiac death and heart failure hospitalization was defined as major cardiac events and that of atrial fibrillation as secondary outcome. Left atrial volume index was increased and LA booster strain was decreased in the HCM and CA groups compared with the HHD group. EMT-lateral was increased in the diseased groups compared with the control. EMT-diff was prolonged in the CA group compared with the HCM group. During the follow-up period (mean 3.4 years), major cardiac events and atrial fibrillation occurred in 17 and 13 patients, respectively. The occurrence of atrial fibrillation was associated with CA etiology, E/e', LA volume index, LAa, and EMT-lateral. The incidence of major cardiac events was independently correlated with LA volume index and EMT-diff in multivariate analysis. This study suggested that the EMT-diff could discriminate patients with a high risk of cardiac events among patients with pathological LV hypertrophy. © 2015, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Consequences of systematic model drift in DYNAMO MJO hindcasts with SP-CAM and CAM5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hannah, Walter M.; Maloney, Eric D.; Pritchard, Michael S.

Hindcast simulations of MJO events during the dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign are conducted with two models, one with conventional parameterization (CAM5) and a comparable model that utilizes superparameterization (SP–CAM). SP–CAM is shown to produce a qualitatively better reproduction of the fluctuations of precipitation and low–level zonal wind associated with the first two DYNAMO MJO events compared to CAM5. Interestingly, skill metrics using the real–time multivariate MJO index (RMM) suggest the opposite conclusion that CAM5 has more skill than SP–CAM. This inconsistency can be explained by a systematic increase of RMM amplitude with lead time, which results frommore » a drift of the large–scale wind field in SP–CAM that projects strongly onto the RMM index. CAM5 hindcasts exhibit a contraction of the moisture distribution, in which extreme wet and dry conditions become less frequent with lead time. SP–CAM hindcasts better reproduce the observed moisture distribution, but also have stronger drift patterns of moisture budget terms, such as an increase in drying by meridional advection in SP–CAM. This advection tendency in SP–CAM appears to be associated with enhanced off–equatorial synoptic eddy activity with lead time. In conclusion, systematic drift moisture tendencies in SP–CAM are of similar magnitude to intraseasonal moisture tendencies, and therefore are important for understanding MJO prediction skill.« less

Association of stressful life events with accelerated bone loss in older men: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

PubMed Central

Fink, Howard A.; Kuskowski, Michael A.; Cauley, Jane A.; Taylor, Brent C.; Schousboe, John T.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Ensrud, Kristine E.

2015-01-01

Purpose/Introduction Prior studies suggest that stressful life events may increase adverse health outcomes, including falls and possibly fractures. The current study builds on these findings and examines whether stressful life events are associated with increased bone loss. Methods 4388 men aged ≥65 years in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study completed total hip bone mineral density (BMD) measures at baseline and visit 2, approximately 4.6 years later, and self-reported stressful life events data mid-way between baseline and visit 2, and at visit 2. We used linear regression to model the association of stressful life events with concurrent annualized total hip BMD loss, and log binomial regression or Poisson regression to model risk of concurrent accelerated BMD loss (>1 SD more than mean annualized change). Results 75.3% of men reported ≥1 type of stressful life event, including 43.3% with ≥2 types of stressful life events. Mean annualized BMD loss was −0.36% (SD 0.88) and 13.9% of men were categorized with accelerated BMD loss (about 5.7% or more total loss). Rate of annualized BMD loss increased with the number of types of stressful life events after adjustment for age (p<0.001), but not after multivariable adjustment (p=0.07). Multivariable-adjusted risk of accelerated BMD loss increased with the number of types of stressful life events (RR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04–1.16]) per increase of 1 type of stressful life event). Fracture risk was not significantly different between stressful life event-accelerated bone loss subgroups (p=0.08). Conclusions In these older men, stressful life events were associated with a small, dose-related increase in risk of concurrent accelerated hip bone loss. Low frequency of fractures limited assessment of whether rapid bone loss mediates any association of stressful life events with incident fractures. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and to investigate the mechanism that may underlie this association. PMID:25169421

Predictors of clinical outcome in pediatric oligodendroglioma: meta-analysis of individual patient data and multiple imputation.

PubMed

Wang, Kevin Yuqi; Vankov, Emilian R; Lin, Doris Da May

2018-02-01

OBJECTIVE Oligodendroglioma is a rare primary CNS neoplasm in the pediatric population, and only a limited number of studies in the literature have characterized this entity. Existing studies are limited by small sample sizes and discrepant interstudy findings in identified prognostic factors. In the present study, the authors aimed to increase the statistical power in evaluating for potential prognostic factors of pediatric oligodendrogliomas and sought to reconcile the discrepant findings present among existing studies by performing an individual-patient-data (IPD) meta-analysis and using multiple imputation to address data not directly available from existing studies. METHODS A systematic search was performed, and all studies found to be related to pediatric oligodendrogliomas and associated outcomes were screened for inclusion. Each study was searched for specific demographic and clinical characteristics of each patient and the duration of event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS). Given that certain demographic and clinical information of each patient was not available within all studies, a multivariable imputation via chained equations model was used to impute missing data after the mechanism of missing data was determined. The primary end points of interest were hazard ratios for EFS and OS, as calculated by the Cox proportional-hazards model. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. The multivariate model was adjusted for age, sex, tumor grade, mixed pathologies, extent of resection, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, tumor location, and initial presentation. A p value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS A systematic search identified 24 studies with both time-to-event and IPD characteristics available, and a total of 237 individual cases were available for analysis. A median of 19.4% of the values among clinical, demographic, and outcome variables in the compiled 237 cases were missing. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed subtotal resection (p = 0.007 [EFS] and 0.043 [OS]), initial presentation of headache (p = 0.006 [EFS] and 0.004 [OS]), mixed pathologies (p = 0.005 [EFS] and 0.049 [OS]), and location of the tumor in the parietal lobe (p = 0.044 [EFS] and 0.030 [OS]) to be significant predictors of tumor progression or recurrence and death. CONCLUSIONS The use of IPD meta-analysis provides a valuable means for increasing statistical power in investigations of disease entities with a very low incidence. Missing data are common in research, and multiple imputation is a flexible and valid approach for addressing this issue, when it is used conscientiously. Undergoing subtotal resection, having a parietal tumor, having tumors with mixed pathologies, and suffering headaches at the time of diagnosis portended a poorer prognosis in pediatric patients with oligodendroglioma.

Optical Spectroscopy and Multivariate Analysis for Biodosimetry and Monitoring of Radiation Injury to the Skin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levitskaia, Tatiana G.; Bryan, Samuel A.; Creim, Jeffrey A.

2012-08-01

In the event of an intentional or accidental release of ionizing radiation in a densely populated area, timely assessment and triage of the general population for the radiation exposure is critical. In particular, a significant number of the victims may sustain cutaneous radiation injury, which increases the mortality and worsens the overall prognosis of the victims suffered from combined thermal/mechanical and radiation trauma. Diagnosis of the cutaneous radiation injury is challenging, and established methods largely rely on visual manifestations, presence of the skin contamination, and a high degree of recall by the victim. Availability of a high throughput non-invasive inmore » vivo biodosimetry tool for assessment of the radiation exposure of the skin is of particular importance for the timely diagnosis of the cutaneous injury. In the reported investigation, we have tested the potential of an optical reflectance spectroscopy for the evaluation of the radiation injury to the skin. This is technically attractive because optical spectroscopy relies on well-established and routinely used for various applications instrumentation, one example being pulse oximetry which uses selected wavelengths for the quantification of the blood oxygenation. Our method relies on a broad spectral region ranging from the locally absorbed, shallow-penetrating ultraviolet and visible (250 to 800 nm) to more deeply penetrating near-Infrared (800 – 1600 nm) light for the monitoring of multiple physiological changes in the skin upon irradiation. Chemometrics is a multivariate methodology that allows the information from entire spectral region to be used to generate predictive regression models. In this report we demonstrate that simple spectroscopic method, such as the optical reflectance spectroscopy, in combination with multivariate data analysis, offers the promise of rapid and non-invasive in vivo diagnosis and monitoring of the cutaneous radiation exposure, and is able accurately predict the dose and time of exposure in the rodent model.« less

Prognostic Utility of Novel Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Stress: The Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Thomas J.; Wollert, Kai C.; Larson, Martin G.; Coglianese, Erin; McCabe, Elizabeth L.; Cheng, Susan; Ho, Jennifer E.; Fradley, Michael G.; Ghorbani, Anahita; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Kempf, Tibor; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Januzzi, James L.

2013-01-01

Background Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. Methods and Results To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3,428 participants (mean age 59, 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a “multimarker” score composed of the 3 biomarkers, in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each endpoint (p<0.001) except for coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2, 95% CI, 2.2–4.7; p<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2, 95% CI, 2.6–14.8; p<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9, 95% CI, 1.3–2.7; p=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c-statistic (p=0.007 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (p=0.001 or lower). Conclusions Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals, and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure. PMID:22907935

Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Wang, Thomas J; Wollert, Kai C; Larson, Martin G; Coglianese, Erin; McCabe, Elizabeth L; Cheng, Susan; Ho, Jennifer E; Fradley, Michael G; Ghorbani, Anahita; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Kempf, Tibor; Benjamin, Emelia J; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Januzzi, James L

2012-09-25

Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3428 participants (mean age, 59 years; 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a "multimarker" score composed of the 3 biomarkers in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each end point (P<0.001) except coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-4.7; P<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-14.8; P<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.7; P=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c statistic (P=0.005 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (P=0.001 or lower). Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Genetic history of the population of Corsica (western Mediterranean) as inferred from autosomal STR analysis.

PubMed

Tofanelli, Sergio; Taglioli, Luca; Varesi, Laurent; Paoli, Giorgio

2004-04-01

To genetically reconstruct the demographic history of the human population of Corsica (western Mediterranean), we analyzed the variability at eight autosomal STR loci (FES, VWA, CSF1PO, TH01, F13A1, TPOX, CD4, and D3S1358) in a sample of 179 native blood donors from 4 out of the 5 administrative districts. The main line of genetic discontinuity inferred from the spatial distribution of STR variability overlapped the linguistic and geographic boundaries. In the innermost areas (Corte district) several estimators had larger stochastic effects on allele frequencies. Genetic distance measures underlying different evolutionary models all pointed to a higher variability within Corsicans than within the rest of the Mediterranean reference populations. All Corsican subsamples showed the highest distance with a pooled sample from central Sardinia, thus making recent gene flow between the two neighboring islands unlikely. Hierarchical AMOVA and distance-based multivariate genetic spaces stressed the closeness of Tuscan and Corsican frequency distributions, which could reflect peopling events with different time depths. Anyway, estimated separation times well support the linguistic hypothesis that Neolithic/Chalcolithic events have been far more important than Paleolithic or historical processes in the shaping of present Corsican variability.

Effects of a long-term psychosocial nursing intervention on adolescents exposed to catastrophic stress.

PubMed

Hardin, Sally Brosz; Weinrich, Sally; Weinrich, Martin; Garrison, Carol; Addy, Cheryl; Hardin, Thomas L

2002-09-01

This research tested the effects of a long-term psychosocial nursing intervention designed to decrease mental distress in adolescents following a catastrophic event. Advanced Practice Psychiatric Nurses conducted the Catastrophic Stress Intervention (CSI) in two South Carolina high schools for three years following Hurricane Hugo. The CSI consisted of nine protocols designed to decrease adolescents' mental distress by increasing their understanding of stress and by enhancing their self-efficacy and social support. Adolescents (N = 1030) were randomized to intervention or control groups and completed one baseline and five postintervention measures of mental distress, self-efficacy, and social support. The hypothesis was that intervention adolescents would have less mental distress than control adolescents. The research also addressed the particular time points at which differences between intervention and control adolescents might be shown. Repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance, with exposure to the hurricane, self-efficacy, and social support as control variables, showed that intervention adolescents reported less mental distress than control adolescents at 12, 18, and 24 months but that this difference dissipated by 30 and 36 months. Implications for the CSI and timing of interventions with adolescents after a catastrophic event are discussed.

A proposed case-control framework to probabilistically classify individual deaths as expected or excess during extreme hot weather events.

PubMed

Henderson, Sarah B; Gauld, Jillian S; Rauch, Stephen A; McLean, Kathleen E; Krstic, Nikolas; Hondula, David M; Kosatsky, Tom

2016-11-15

Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number of deaths was repeatedly sampled from all deaths that occurred during a hot weather event, and compared with deaths during a control period. The deaths were compared with respect to five factors known to be associated with hot weather mortality. Individuals were ranked by their presence in significant models over 100 trials of 10,000 repetitions. Those with the highest rankings were identified as probable excess deaths. Sensitivity analyses were performed on a range of model combinations. These methods were applied to a 2009 hot weather event in greater Vancouver, Canada. The excess deaths identified were sensitive to differences in model combinations, particularly between univariate and multivariate approaches. One multivariate and one univariate combination were chosen as the best models for further analyses. The individuals identified by multiple combinations suggest that marginalized populations in greater Vancouver are at higher risk of death during hot weather. This study proposes novel methods for classifying specific deaths as expected or excess during a hot weather event. Further work is needed to evaluate performance of the methods in simulation studies and against clinically identified cases. If confirmed, these methods could be applied to a wide range of populations and events of interest.

Photon event distribution sampling: an image formation technique for scanning microscopes that permits tracking of sub-diffraction particles with high spatial and temporal resolutions.

PubMed

Larkin, J D; Publicover, N G; Sutko, J L

2011-01-01

In photon event distribution sampling, an image formation technique for scanning microscopes, the maximum likelihood position of origin of each detected photon is acquired as a data set rather than binning photons in pixels. Subsequently, an intensity-related probability density function describing the uncertainty associated with the photon position measurement is applied to each position and individual photon intensity distributions are summed to form an image. Compared to pixel-based images, photon event distribution sampling images exhibit increased signal-to-noise and comparable spatial resolution. Photon event distribution sampling is superior to pixel-based image formation in recognizing the presence of structured (non-random) photon distributions at low photon counts and permits use of non-raster scanning patterns. A photon event distribution sampling based method for localizing single particles derived from a multi-variate normal distribution is more precise than statistical (Gaussian) fitting to pixel-based images. Using the multi-variate normal distribution method, non-raster scanning and a typical confocal microscope, localizations with 8 nm precision were achieved at 10 ms sampling rates with acquisition of ~200 photons per frame. Single nanometre precision was obtained with a greater number of photons per frame. In summary, photon event distribution sampling provides an efficient way to form images when low numbers of photons are involved and permits particle tracking with confocal point-scanning microscopes with nanometre precision deep within specimens. © 2010 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2010 The Royal Microscopical Society.

Multivariate temporal pattern analysis applied to the study of rat behavior in the elevated plus maze: methodological and conceptual highlights.

PubMed

Casarrubea, M; Magnusson, M S; Roy, V; Arabo, A; Sorbera, F; Santangelo, A; Faulisi, F; Crescimanno, G

2014-08-30

Aim of this article is to illustrate the application of a multivariate approach known as t-pattern analysis in the study of rat behavior in elevated plus maze. By means of this multivariate approach, significant relationships among behavioral events in the course of time can be described. Both quantitative and t-pattern analyses were utilized to analyze data obtained from fifteen male Wistar rats following a trial 1-trial 2 protocol. In trial 2, in comparison with the initial exposure, mean occurrences of behavioral elements performed in protected zones of the maze showed a significant increase counterbalanced by a significant decrease of mean occurrences of behavioral elements in unprotected zones. Multivariate t-pattern analysis, in trial 1, revealed the presence of 134 t-patterns of different composition. In trial 2, the temporal structure of behavior become more simple, being present only 32 different t-patterns. Behavioral strings and stripes (i.e. graphical representation of each t-pattern onset) of all t-patterns were presented both for trial 1 and trial 2 as well. Finally, percent distributions in the three zones of the maze show a clear-cut increase of t-patterns in closed arm and a significant reduction in the remaining zones. Results show that previous experience deeply modifies the temporal structure of rat behavior in the elevated plus maze. In addition, this article, by highlighting several conceptual, methodological and illustrative aspects on the utilization of t-pattern analysis, could represent a useful background to employ such a refined approach in the study of rat behavior in elevated plus maze. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

F100 multivariable control synthesis program: Evaluation of a multivariable control using a real-time engine simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szuch, J. R.; Soeder, J. F.; Seldner, K.; Cwynar, D. S.

1977-01-01

The design, evaluation, and testing of a practical, multivariable, linear quadratic regulator control for the F100 turbofan engine were accomplished. NASA evaluation of the multivariable control logic and implementation are covered. The evaluation utilized a real time, hybrid computer simulation of the engine. Results of the evaluation are presented, and recommendations concerning future engine testing of the control are made. Results indicated that the engine testing of the control should be conducted as planned.

Significance of a positive family history for coronary heart disease in patients with a zero coronary artery calcium score (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

PubMed

Cohen, Randy; Budoff, Matthew; McClelland, Robyn L; Sillau, Stefan; Burke, Gregory; Blaha, Michael; Szklo, Moyses; Uretsky, Seth; Rozanski, Alan; Shea, Steven

2014-10-15

Although a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 is associated with a very low 10-year risk for cardiac events, this risk is nonzero. Subjects with a family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been associated with more subclinical atherosclerosis than subjects without a family history of CHD. The purpose of this study was to assess the significance of a family history for CHD in subjects with a CAC score of 0. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort includes 6,814 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. Positive family history was defined as reporting a parent, sibling, or child who had a heart attack. Time to incident CHD or CVD event was modeled using the multivariable Cox regression; 3,185 subjects were identified from the original Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort as having a baseline CAC score of 0 (mean age 58 years, 37% men). Over a median follow-up of 10 years, 101 participants (3.2%) had CVD events and 56 (1.8%) had CHD events. In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, a family history of CHD was associated with an ∼70% increase in CVD (hazard ratio 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 2.56) and CHD (hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.91) events. CVD events remained significant after further adjustment for ethnicity, risk factors, and baseline medication use. In conclusion, asymptomatic subjects with a 0 CAC score and a positive family history of CHD are at increased risk for CVD and CHD events compared with those without a family history of CHD, although absolute event rates remain low. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the ability of Bartlett-Lewis type of rainfall models to reproduce drought statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M. T.; Vanhaute, W. J.; Vandenberghe, S.; De Baets, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2013-12-01

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as a test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis model types studied fail to preserve extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.

A copula-based assessment of Bartlett-Lewis type of rainfall models for preserving drought statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M. T.; Vanhaute, W. J.; Vandenberghe, S.; De Baets, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2013-06-01

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis type of models studied fail in preserving extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.

Anomalous Induced Seismicity due to Hydraulic Fracturing. Case of study in the Montney Formation, Northeast British Columbia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, M.; Bustin, A. M. M.; Johansen, K.; Bustin, R. M.

2017-12-01

One of our goals is to investigate the variables and processes controlling the anomalous induced seismicity and its associated ground motions, to better understand the anomalous induced seismicity (AIS) due to hydraulic fracturing in Northeast British Columbia. Our other main objective is to optimize-completions and well design. Although the vast majority of earthquakes that occur in the world each year have natural causes, some of these earthquakes and a number of lesser magnitude seismic events are induced by human activities. The recorded induced seismicity resulting from the fluid injection during hydraulic fracturing is generally small in magnitude (< M 1). Shale gas operations in Northeast British Columbia (BC) have induced the largest recorded occurrence and magnitude of AIS because of hydraulic fracturing. Anomalous induced seismicity have been recorded in seven clusters within the Montney area, with magnitudes up to ML 4.6. Five of these clusters have been linked to hydraulic fracturing. To analyse our AIS data, we first have calculated the earthquakes hypocenters. The data was recorded on an array of real-time accelerometers. We built the array based on our modified design from the early earthquake detectors installed in BC schools for the Earthquake Early Warning System for British Columbia. We have developed a new technique for locating hypocenters and applied it to our dataset. The technique will enable near real-time event location, aiding in both mitigating induced events and adjusting completions to optimize the stimulation. Our hypocenter program assumes to consider a S wave speed, fitting the arrival times to the hypocenter, and using an "amoebae method" multivariate. We have used this method because it is well suited to minimizing of the chi-squared function of the arrival time deviation. We show some preliminary results on the Montney dataset.

Predictive value of night-time heart rate for cardiovascular events in hypertension. The ABP-International study.

PubMed

Palatini, Paolo; Reboldi, Gianpaolo; Beilin, Lawrence J; Eguchi, Kazuo; Imai, Yutaka; Kario, Kazuomi; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Pierdomenico, Sante D; Saladini, Francesca; Schwartz, Joseph E; Wing, Lindon; Verdecchia, Paolo

2013-09-30

Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between ambulatory heart rate (HR) and cardiovascular events (CVE) are conflicting. To investigate whether ambulatory HR predicts CVE in hypertension, we performed 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and HR monitoring in 7600 hypertensive patients aged 52 ± 16 years from Italy, U.S.A., Japan, and Australia, included in the 'ABP-International' registry. All were untreated at baseline examination. Standardized hazard ratios for ambulatory HRs were computed, stratifying for cohort, and adjusting for age, gender, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, serum total cholesterol and serum creatinine. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years there were 639 fatal and nonfatal CVE. In a multivariable Cox model, night-time HR predicted fatal combined with nonfatal CVE more closely than 24h HR (p=0.007 and =0.03, respectively). Daytime HR and the night:day HR ratio were not associated with CVE (p=0.07 and =0.18, respectively). The hazard ratio of the fatal combined with nonfatal CVE for a 10-beats/min increment of the night-time HR was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.04-1.22). This relationship remained significant when subjects taking beta-blockers during the follow-up (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25) or subjects who had an event within 5 years after enrollment (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45) were excluded from analysis. At variance with previous data obtained from general populations, ambulatory HR added to the risk stratification for fatal combined with nonfatal CVE in the hypertensive patients from the ABP-International study. Night-time HR was a better predictor of CVE than daytime HR. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outcome of adults with Eisenmenger syndrome treated with drugs specific to pulmonary arterial hypertension: A French multicentre study.

PubMed

Hascoet, Sebastien; Fournier, Emmanuelle; Jaïs, Xavier; Le Gloan, Lauriane; Dauphin, Claire; Houeijeh, Ali; Godart, Francois; Iriart, Xavier; Richard, Adelaïde; Radojevic, Jelena; Amedro, Pascal; Bosser, Gilles; Souletie, Nathalie; Bernard, Yvette; Moceri, Pamela; Bouvaist, Hélène; Mauran, Pierre; Barre, Elise; Basquin, Adeline; Karsenty, Clement; Bonnet, Damien; Iserin, Laurence; Sitbon, Olivier; Petit, Jérôme; Fadel, Elie; Humbert, Marc; Ladouceur, Magalie

2017-05-01

The relationship between pulmonary arterial hypertension-specific drug therapy (PAH-SDT) and mortality in Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) is controversial. To investigate outcomes in patients with ES, and their relationship with PAH-SDT. Retrospective, observational, nationwide, multicentre cohort study. We included 340 patients with ES: genetic syndrome (n=119; 35.3%); pretricuspid defect (n=75; 22.1%). Overall, 276 (81.2%) patients received PAH-SDT: monotherapy (endothelin receptor antagonist [ERA] or phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor [PDE5I]) 46.7%; dual therapy (ERA+PDE5I) 40.9%; triple therapy (ERA+PDE5I+prostanoid) 9.1%. Median PAH-SDT duration was 5.5 years [3.0-9.1 years]. Events (death, lung or heart-lung transplantation) occurred in 95 (27.9%) patients at a median age of 40.5 years [29.4-47.6]. The cumulative occurrence of events was 16.7% [95% confidence interval 12.8-21.6%] and 46.4% [95% confidence interval 38.2-55.4%] at age 40 and 60 years, respectively. With age at evaluation or time since PAH diagnosis as time scales, cumulative occurrence of events was lower in patients taking one or two PAH-SDTs (P=0.0001 and P=0.004, respectively), with the largest differences in the post-tricuspid defect subgroup (P<0.001 and P<0.02, respectively) versus patients without PAH-SDT. By multivariable Cox analysis, with time since PAH diagnosis as time scale, New York Heart Association/World Health Organization functional class III/IV, lower peripheral arterial oxygen saturation and pretricuspid defect were associated with a higher risk of events (P=0.002, P=0.01 and P=0.04, respectively), and one or two PAH-SDTs with a lower risk of events (P=0.009). Outcomes are poor in ES, but seem better with PAH-SDT. ES with pretricuspid defects has worse outcomes despite the delayed disease onset. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Acute Kidney Injury Predicts Major Adverse Outcomes in Diabetes: Synergic Impact With Low Glomerular Filtration Rate and Albuminuria.

PubMed

Monseu, Mathilde; Gand, Elise; Saulnier, Pierre-Jean; Ragot, Stéphanie; Piguel, Xavier; Zaoui, Philippe; Rigalleau, Vincent; Marechaud, Richard; Roussel, Ronan; Hadjadj, Samy; Halimi, Jean-Michel

2015-12-01

Subjects with diabetes are prone to the development of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular complications. In separate studies, acute kidney injury (AKI), albuminuria, and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were shown to predict adverse outcomes, but, when considered together, their respective prognostic value is unknown. Patients with type 2 diabetes consecutively recruited in the SURDIAGENE cohort were prospectively followed up for major diabetes-related events, as adjudicated by an independent committee: death (with cause), major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure, amputation, and arterial revascularization), and renal failure (i.e., sustained doubling of serum creatinine level or end-stage renal disease). Intrahospital AKI occurred in 411 of 1,371 patients during the median follow-up period of 69 months. In multivariate analyses, AKI was significantly associated with cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, including cancer-related death. In multivariate analyses, AKI was a powerful predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events, heart failure requiring hospitalization, myocardial infarction, stroke, lower-limb amputation or revascularization, and carotid artery revascularization. AKI, eGFR, and albuminuria, even when simultaneously considered in multivariate models, predicted all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. All three renal biomarkers were also prognostic of most adverse outcomes and of the risk of renal failure. AKI, low eGFR, and elevated albuminuria, separately or together, are compelling biomarkers of major adverse outcomes and death in diabetes. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

The role of traumatic event history in non-medical use of prescription drugs among a nationally representative sample of US adolescents.

PubMed

McCauley, Jenna L; Danielson, Carla Kmett; Amstadter, Ananda B; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Resnick, Heidi S; Hanson, Rochelle F; Smith, Daniel W; Saunders, Benjamin E; Kilpatrick, Dean G

2010-01-01

Building on previous research with adolescents that examined demographic variables and other forms of substance abuse in relation to non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD), the current study examined potentially traumatic events, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), other substance use, and delinquent behavior as potential correlates of past-year non-medical use of prescription drugs. A nationally representative sample of 3,614 non-institutionalized, civilian, English-speaking adolescents (aged 12-17 years) residing in households with a telephone was selected. Demographic characteristics, traumatic event history, mental health, and substance abuse variables were assessed. NMUPD was assessed by asking if, in the past year, participants had used a prescription drug in a non-medical manner. Multivariable logistic regressions were conducted for each theoretically derived predictor set. Significant predictors from each set were then entered into a final multivariable logistic regression to determine significant predictors of past-year NMUPD. NMUPD was endorsed by 6.7% of the sample (n = 242). The final multivariable model showed that lifetime history of delinquent behavior, other forms of substance use/abuse, history of witnessed violence, and lifetime history of PTSD were significantly associated with increased likelihood of NMUPD. Risk reduction efforts targeting NMUPD among adolescents who have witnessed significant violence, endorsed abuse of other substances and delinquent behavior, and/or endorsed PTSD are warranted. Interventions for adolescents with history of violence exposure or PTSD, or those adjudicated for delinquent behavior, should include treatment or prevention modules that specifically address NMUPD.

Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-06-01

p p′ : The probability of some event. ,i ip q : The probability of event . i Π : An aggregation of proportional data used in calculating a test ...statistical tests of the significance of the term and also is conducted in a multivariate framework rather than the ROSA univariate approach. A...residual error is ˆ−e = y y (45) The coefficient provides a ready indicator of the contribution for the associated variable and statistical tests

Gravitational Wave Detection of Compact Binaries Through Multivariate Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atallah, Dany Victor; Dorrington, Iain; Sutton, Patrick

2017-01-01

The first detection of gravitational waves (GW), GW150914, as produced by a binary black hole merger, has ushered in the era of GW astronomy. The detection technique used to find GW150914 considered only a fraction of the information available describing the candidate event: mainly the detector signal to noise ratios and chi-squared values. In hopes of greatly increasing detection rates, we want to take advantage of all the information available about candidate events. We employ a technique called Multivariate Analysis (MVA) to improve LIGO sensitivity to GW signals. MVA techniques are efficient ways to scan high dimensional data spaces for signal/noise classification. Our goal is to use MVA to classify compact-object binary coalescence (CBC) events composed of any combination of black holes and neutron stars. CBC waveforms are modeled through numerical relativity. Templates of the modeled waveforms are used to search for CBCs and quantify candidate events. Different MVA pipelines are under investigation to look for CBC signals and un-modelled signals, with promising results. One such MVA pipeline used for the un-modelled search can theoretically analyze far more data than the MVA pipelines currently explored for CBCs, potentially making a more powerful classifier. In principle, this extra information could improve the sensitivity to GW signals. We will present the results from our efforts to adapt an MVA pipeline used in the un-modelled search to classify candidate events from the CBC search.

A multivariate time series approach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergency department.

PubMed

Jones, Spencer S; Evans, R Scott; Allen, Todd L; Thomas, Alun; Haug, Peter J; Welch, Shari J; Snow, Gregory L

2009-02-01

The goals of this investigation were to study the temporal relationships between the demands for key resources in the emergency department (ED) and the inpatient hospital, and to develop multivariate forecasting models. Hourly data were collected from three diverse hospitals for the year 2006. Descriptive analysis and model fitting were carried out using graphical and multivariate time series methods. Multivariate models were compared to a univariate benchmark model in terms of their ability to provide out-of-sample forecasts of ED census and the demands for diagnostic resources. Descriptive analyses revealed little temporal interaction between the demand for inpatient resources and the demand for ED resources at the facilities considered. Multivariate models provided more accurate forecasts of ED census and of the demands for diagnostic resources. Our results suggest that multivariate time series models can be used to reliably forecast ED patient census; however, forecasts of the demands for diagnostic resources were not sufficiently reliable to be useful in the clinical setting.

Understanding Human Motion Skill with Peak Timing Synergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueno, Ken; Furukawa, Koichi

The careful observation of motion phenomena is important in understanding the skillful human motion. However, this is a difficult task due to the complexities in timing when dealing with the skilful control of anatomical structures. To investigate the dexterity of human motion, we decided to concentrate on timing with respect to motion, and we have proposed a method to extract the peak timing synergy from multivariate motion data. The peak timing synergy is defined as a frequent ordered graph with time stamps, which has nodes consisting of turning points in motion waveforms. A proposed algorithm, PRESTO automatically extracts the peak timing synergy. PRESTO comprises the following 3 processes: (1) detecting peak sequences with polygonal approximation; (2) generating peak-event sequences; and (3) finding frequent peak-event sequences using a sequential pattern mining method, generalized sequential patterns (GSP). Here, we measured right arm motion during the task of cello bowing and prepared a data set of the right shoulder and arm motion. We successfully extracted the peak timing synergy on cello bowing data set using the PRESTO algorithm, which consisted of common skills among cellists and personal skill differences. To evaluate the sequential pattern mining algorithm GSP in PRESTO, we compared the peak timing synergy by using GSP algorithm and the one by using filtering by reciprocal voting (FRV) algorithm as a non time-series method. We found that the support is 95 - 100% in GSP, while 83 - 96% in FRV and that the results by GSP are better than the one by FRV in the reproducibility of human motion. Therefore we show that sequential pattern mining approach is more effective to extract the peak timing synergy than non-time series analysis approach.

Pre-operative risk factors of bleeding and stroke during left ventricular assist device support: an analysis of more than 900 HeartMate II outpatients.

PubMed

Boyle, Andrew J; Jorde, Ulrich P; Sun, Benjamin; Park, Soon J; Milano, Carmelo A; Frazier, O Howard; Sundareswaran, Kartik S; Farrar, David J; Russell, Stuart D

2014-03-11

This study sought to determine the pre-operative risk factors related to late bleeding, stroke, and pump thrombosis in patients with HeartMate II (HMII) left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) (Thoratec Corporation, Pleasanton, California) that might influence tailored improvements in patient management. Adverse events in LVAD patients remain high. It is unclear whether pre-operative characteristics influence the likelihood of the development of post-operative hemorrhagic or thrombotic complications. Knowing which patients are at greater risk might assist in tailoring anticoagulation therapy for certain patients. Advanced heart failure patients (n = 956) discharged from the hospital after LVAD implantation in the HMII bridge to transplantation (n = 405) and destination therapy (n = 551) clinical trials were retrospectively evaluated. Bleeding requiring surgery or transfusion of >2 U of packed red blood cells, stroke (hemorrhagic and ischemic), and pump thrombosis were tracked from hospital discharge until patient outcome. Adverse event rates for post-discharge bleeding (0.67 events/patient-year) were higher than those for hemorrhagic stroke (0.05), ischemic stroke (0.04), and pump thrombosis (0.03). The main sites of bleeding included gastrointestinal (45% of events), wound (12%), and epistaxis (4%). Older age (>65 years) (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.31), lower pre-operative hematocrit (≤31%) (HR: 1.31), ischemic etiology (HR: 1.35), and female (HR: 1.45) were statistically significant multivariable risk factors for bleeding. Female (HR: 1.92) and 65 years of age and younger (HR: 1.94) were multivariable risk factors for hemorrhagic stroke, whereas female (HR: 1.84) and history of diabetes (HR: 1.99) were risk factors for ischemic stroke. Female (HR: 1.90) and higher body mass index (HR: 1.71/10 kg/m(2) increase) were also multivariable risk factors for pump thrombosis. The risk of bleeding and thrombotic events during LVAD support differs by patient demographics, including sex, age, body mass index, and etiology of heart failure. Further studies should focus on the potential of tailored anticoagulation strategies in these subgroups. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The systolic blood pressure difference between arms and cardiovascular disease in the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Weinberg, Ido; Gona, Philimon; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Jaff, Michael R; Murabito, Joanne M

2014-03-01

An increased interarm systolic blood pressure difference is an easily determined physical examination finding. The relationship between interarm systolic blood pressure difference and risk of future cardiovascular disease is uncertain. We described the prevalence and risk factor correlates of interarm systolic blood pressure difference in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) original and offspring cohorts and examined the association between interarm systolic blood pressure difference and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. An increased interarm systolic blood pressure difference was defined as ≥ 10 mm Hg using the average of initial and repeat blood pressure measurements obtained in both arms. Participants were followed through 2010 for incident cardiovascular disease events. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to investigate the effect of interarm systolic blood pressure difference on incident cardiovascular disease. We examined 3390 (56.3% female) participants aged 40 years and older, free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, mean age of 61.1 years, who attended a FHS examination between 1991 and 1994 (original cohort) and from 1995 to 1998 (offspring cohort). The mean absolute interarm systolic blood pressure difference was 4.6 mm Hg (range 0-78). Increased interarm systolic blood pressure difference was present in 317 (9.4%) participants. The median follow-up time was 13.3 years, during which time 598 participants (17.6%) experienced a first cardiovascular event, including 83 (26.2%) participants with interarm systolic blood pressure difference ≥ 10 mm Hg. Compared with those with normal interarm systolic blood pressure difference, participants with an elevated interarm systolic blood pressure difference were older (63.0 years vs 60.9 years), had a greater prevalence of diabetes mellitus (13.3% vs 7.5%,), higher systolic blood pressure (136.3 mm Hg vs 129.3 mm Hg), and a higher total cholesterol level (212.1 mg/dL vs 206.5 mg/dL). Interarm systolic blood pressure difference was associated with a significantly increased hazard of incident cardiovascular events in the multivariable adjusted model (hazard ratio 1.38; 95% CI, 1.09-1.75). For each 1-SD-unit increase in absolute interarm systolic blood pressure difference, the hazard ratio for incident cardiovascular events was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.00-1.14) in the fully adjusted model. There was no such association with mortality (hazard ratio 1.02; 95% CI 0.76-1.38). In this community-based cohort, an interarm systolic blood pressure difference is common and associated with a significant increased risk for future cardiovascular events, even when the absolute difference in arm systolic blood pressure is modest. These findings support research to expand clinical use of this simple measurement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Multitaper, Causal Decomposition for Stochastic, Multivariate Time Series: Application to High-Frequency Calcium Imaging Data.

PubMed

Sornborger, Andrew T; Lauderdale, James D

2016-11-01

Neural data analysis has increasingly incorporated causal information to study circuit connectivity. Dimensional reduction forms the basis of most analyses of large multivariate time series. Here, we present a new, multitaper-based decomposition for stochastic, multivariate time series that acts on the covariance of the time series at all lags, C ( τ ), as opposed to standard methods that decompose the time series, X ( t ), using only information at zero-lag. In both simulated and neural imaging examples, we demonstrate that methods that neglect the full causal structure may be discarding important dynamical information in a time series.

Quality of life after lacunar stroke: the Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes study.

PubMed

Dhamoon, Mandip S; McClure, Leslie A; White, Carole L; Lau, Helena; Benavente, Oscar; Elkind, Mitchell S V

2014-01-01

We sought to describe the course and predictors of quality of life (QOL) after lacunar stroke. We hypothesized that there is a decline in QOL after recovery from lacunar stroke. The Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes is a clinical trial in lacunar stroke patients with annual assessments of QOL with the stroke-specific QOL score. The overall score was used and analyzed as a continuous variable (range 0-5). We fit linear mixed models to assess the trend in QOL over time, assuming linearity of time, and adjusted for demographics, medical risk factors, cognitive factors, and functional status in univariable and multivariable models. Among 2870 participants, mean age was 63.4 years (SD 10.7), 63% were men, 51% White, 32% Hispanic, 36% had college education, 36% had diabetes, 89% had hypertension, and 10% had prior stroke. Mean poststroke Barthel Index (BI) score was 95.4 (assessed on average 6 months after stroke). In the final multivariable model, there was an average increase in QOL of .6% per year, and factors associated with decline in QOL over time included age (-.0003 per year, P < .0001), any college education (-.0013 per year, .01), prior stroke (-.004 per year, P < .0001), and BI (-.0002 per year, P < .0001). In this clinical trial of lacunar stroke patients, there was a slight annual increase in QOL overall, and age, level of education, and prior stroke were associated with changes in QOL over time. Multiple strokes may cause decline in QOL over time in the absence of recurrent events. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

Sleep Apnea, Sleep Duration and Brain MRI Markers of Cerebral Vascular Disease and Alzheimer's Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC).

PubMed

Lutsey, Pamela L; Norby, Faye L; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Mosley, Thomas; MacLehose, Richard F; Punjabi, Naresh M; Shahar, Eyal; Jack, Clifford R; Alonso, Alvaro

2016-01-01

A growing body of literature has suggested that obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and habitual short sleep duration are linked to poor cognitive function. Neuroimaging studies may provide insight into this relation. We tested the hypotheses that OSA and habitual short sleep duration, measured at ages 54-73 years, would be associated with adverse brain morphology at ages 67-89 years. Included in this analysis are 312 ARIC study participants who underwent in-home overnight polysomnography in 1996-1998 and brain MRI scans about 15 years later (2012-2013). Sleep apnea was quantified by the apnea-hypopnea index and categorized as moderate/severe (≥15.0 events/hour), mild (5.0-14.9 events/hour), or normal (<5.0 events/hour). Habitual sleep duration was categorized, in hours, as <7, 7 to <8, ≥8. MRI outcomes included number of infarcts (total, subcortical, and cortical) and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) and Alzheimer's disease signature region volumes. Multivariable adjusted logistic and linear regression models were used. All models incorporated inverse probability weighting, to adjust for potential selection bias. At the time of the sleep study participants were 61.7 (SD: 5.0) years old and 54% female; 19% had moderate/severe sleep apnea. MRI imaging took place 14.8 (SD: 1.0) years later, when participants were 76.5 (SD: 5.2) years old. In multivariable models which accounted for body mass index, neither OSA nor abnormal sleep duration were statistically significantly associated with odds of cerebral infarcts, WMH brain volumes or regional brain volumes. In this community-based sample, mid-life OSA and habitually short sleep duration were not associated with later-life cerebral markers of vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease. However, selection bias may have influenced our results and the modest sample size led to relatively imprecise associations.

Single trial classification for the categories of perceived emotional facial expressions: an event-related fMRI study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Sutao; Huang, Yuxia; Long, Zhiying; Zhang, Jiacai; Chen, Gongxiang; Wang, Shuqing

2016-03-01

Recently, several studies have successfully applied multivariate pattern analysis methods to predict the categories of emotions. These studies are mainly focused on self-experienced emotions, such as the emotional states elicited by music or movie. In fact, most of our social interactions involve perception of emotional information from the expressions of other people, and it is an important basic skill for humans to recognize the emotional facial expressions of other people in a short time. In this study, we aimed to determine the discriminability of perceived emotional facial expressions. In a rapid event-related fMRI design, subjects were instructed to classify four categories of facial expressions (happy, disgust, angry and neutral) by pressing different buttons, and each facial expression stimulus lasted for 2s. All participants performed 5 fMRI runs. One multivariate pattern analysis method, support vector machine was trained to predict the categories of facial expressions. For feature selection, ninety masks defined from anatomical automatic labeling (AAL) atlas were firstly generated and each were treated as the input of the classifier; then, the most stable AAL areas were selected according to prediction accuracies, and comprised the final feature sets. Results showed that: for the 6 pair-wise classification conditions, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were all above chance prediction, among which, happy vs. neutral , angry vs. disgust achieved the lowest results. These results suggested that specific neural signatures of perceived emotional facial expressions may exist, and happy vs. neutral, angry vs. disgust might be more similar in information representation in the brain.

Glycated hemoglobin level is an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events after nonfatal acute myocardial infarction in nondiabetic patients: A retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Chen, Chin-Lan; Yen, David H-T; Lin, Chin-Sheng; Tsai, Shih-Hung; Chen, Sy-Jou; Sheu, Wayne H-H; Hsu, Chin-Wang

2017-05-01

The effect of glycemic control on the prognosis of nondiabetic patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains uncertain. We investigated whether glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is associated with adverse outcomes after AMI in nondiabetic patients. In this observational study, we enrolled nondiabetic patients with AMI in the emergency department of 2 medical centers from January 2011 to September 2014. All patients received primary percutaneous coronary intervention and were divided into 4 groups according to the interquartile range of average HbA1c level (Group I, ≤5.6%; Group II, 5.6%-5.8%; Group III, 5.8%-6.0%; and Group IV, >6.0%). Multivariate logistic analysis was performed to estimate the correlation of HbA1c with major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) after AMI. In total, 267 eligible patients were enrolled; 48 patients (18%) developed MACEs within a median follow-up of 178 days. Univariate analysis showed HbA1c > 6.0%, with a higher risk of MACEs in Group IV than in Group I (odds ratio [OR]: 2.733; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.123-6.651 vs OR: 1.511; 95% CI: 0.595-3.835). Multivariate analysis revealed an approximately 3.8 times higher risk of MACEs in Group IV than in Group I (OR: 3.769; 95% CI: 1.30-10.86). The HbA1 level is a significant predictor of MACEs after AMI in nondiabetic patients.

Natural history definition and a suggested clinical approach to Buerger's disease: a case-control study with survival analysis.

PubMed

Fazeli, Bahare; Ravari, Hassan; Assadi, Reza

2012-08-01

The aim of this study was first to describe the natural history of Buerger's disease (BD) and then to discuss a clinical approach to this disease based on multivariate analysis. One hundred eight patients who corresponded with Shionoya's criteria were selected from 2000 to 2007 for this study. Major amputation was considered the ultimate adverse event. Survival analyses were performed by Kaplan-Meier curves. Independent variables including gender, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, minor amputation events and type of treatments, were determined by multivariate Cox regression analysis. The recorded data demonstrated that BD may present in four forms, including relapsing-remitting (75%), secondary progressive (4.6%), primary progressive (14.2%) and benign BD (6.2%). Most of the amputations occurred due to relapses within the six years after diagnosis of BD. In multivariate analysis, duration of smoking of more than 20 years had a significant relationship with further major amputation among patients with BD. Smoking cessation programs with experienced psychotherapists are strongly recommended for those areas in which Buerger's disease is common. Patients who have smoked for more than 20 years should be encouraged to quit smoking, but should also be recommended for more advanced treatment for limb salvage.

Memory Reactivation Predicts Resistance to Retroactive Interference: Evidence from Multivariate Classification and Pattern Similarity Analyses

PubMed Central

Rugg, Michael D.

2016-01-01

Memory reactivation—the reinstatement of processes and representations engaged when an event is initially experienced—is believed to play an important role in strengthening and updating episodic memory. The present study examines how memory reactivation during a potentially interfering event influences memory for a previously experienced event. Participants underwent fMRI during the encoding phase of an AB/AC interference task in which some words were presented twice in association with two different encoding tasks (AB and AC trials) and other words were presented once (DE trials). The later memory test required retrieval of the encoding tasks associated with each of the study words. Retroactive interference was evident for the AB encoding task and was particularly strong when the AC encoding task was remembered rather than forgotten. We used multivariate classification and pattern similarity analysis (PSA) to measure reactivation of the AB encoding task during AC trials. The results demonstrated that reactivation of generic task information measured with multivariate classification predicted subsequent memory for the AB encoding task regardless of whether interference was strong and weak (trials for which the AC encoding task was remembered or forgotten, respectively). In contrast, reactivation of neural patterns idiosyncratic to a given AB trial measured with PSA only predicted memory when the strength of interference was low. These results suggest that reactivation of features of an initial experience shared across numerous events in the same category, but not features idiosyncratic to a particular event, are important in resisting retroactive interference caused by new learning. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Reactivating a previously encoded memory is believed to provide an opportunity to strengthen the memory, but also to return the memory to a labile state, making it susceptible to interference. However, there is debate as to how memory reactivation elicited by a potentially interfering event influences subsequent retrieval of the memory. The findings of the current study indicate that reactivating features idiosyncratic to a particular experience during interference only influences subsequent memory when interference is relatively weak. Critically, reactivation of generic contextual information predicts subsequent source memory when retroactive interference is either strong and weak. The results indicate that reactivation of generic information about a prior episode mitigates forgetting due to retroactive interference. PMID:27076433

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard.

EPA Science Inventory

One of the lnteragency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Method's (ICCVAM) top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary to produce skin sensiti...

Small artery elasticity predicts future cardiovascular events in chinese patients with angiographic coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Wan, Zhaofei; Liu, Xiaojun; Wang, Xinhong; Liu, Fuqiang; Liu, Weimin; Wu, Yue; Pei, Leilei; Yuan, Zuyi

2014-04-01

Arterial elasticity has been shown to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) in apparently healthy populations. The present study aimed to explore whether arterial elasticity could predict CVD events in Chinese patients with angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD). Arterial elasticity of 365 patients with angiographic CAD was measured. During follow-up (48 months; range 6-65), 140 CVD events occurred (including 34 deaths). Univariate Cox analysis demonstrated that both large arterial elasticity and small arterial elasticity were significant predictors of CVD events. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that small arterial elasticity remained significant. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the probability of having a CVD event/CVD death increased with a decrease of small arterial elasticity (P < .001, respectively). Decreased small arterial elasticity independently predicts the risk of CVD events in Chinese patients with angiographic CAD.

Platelet density per monocyte predicts adverse events in patients after percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Rutten, Bert; Roest, Mark; McClellan, Elizabeth A; Sels, Jan W; Stubbs, Andrew; Jukema, J Wouter; Doevendans, Pieter A; Waltenberger, Johannes; van Zonneveld, Anton-Jan; Pasterkamp, Gerard; De Groot, Philip G; Hoefer, Imo E

2016-01-01

Monocyte recruitment to damaged endothelium is enhanced by platelet binding to monocytes and contributes to vascular repair. Therefore, we studied whether the number of platelets per monocyte affects the recurrence of adverse events in patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Platelet-monocytes complexes with high and low median fluorescence intensities (MFI) of the platelet marker CD42b were isolated using cell sorting. Microscopic analysis revealed that a high platelet marker MFI on monocytes corresponded with a high platelet density per monocyte while a low platelet marker MFI corresponded with a low platelet density per monocyte (3.4 ± 0.7 vs 1.4 ± 0.1 platelets per monocyte, P=0.01). Using real-time video microscopy, we observed increased recruitment of high platelet density monocytes to endothelial cells as compared with low platelet density monocytes (P=0.01). Next, we classified PCI scheduled patients (N=263) into groups with high, medium and low platelet densities per monocyte and assessed the recurrence of adverse events. After multivariate adjustment for potential confounders, we observed a 2.5-fold reduction in the recurrence of adverse events in patients with a high platelet density per monocyte as compared with a low platelet density per monocyte [hazard ratio=0.4 (95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.8), P=0.01]. We show that a high platelet density per monocyte increases monocyte recruitment to endothelial cells and predicts a reduction in the recurrence of adverse events in patients after PCI. These findings may imply that a high platelet density per monocyte protects against recurrence of adverse events.

Impact of some types of mass gatherings on current suicide risk in an urban population: statistical and negative binominal regression analysis of time series

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have investigated the impact of a wide range of social events on suicide-related behaviour. However, these studies have predominantly examined national events. The aim of this study is to provide a statistical evaluation of the relationship between mass gatherings in some relatively small urban sub-populations and the general suicide rates of a major city. Methods The data were gathered in the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk, with a population of 1 million people, in 2005–2010. Suicide attempts, suicides, and the total amount of suicide-related behaviours were registered daily for each sex. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis, including negative binomial regression, were applied to assess the risk of suicide-related behaviour in the city’s general population for 7 days before and after 427 mass gatherings, such as concerts, football games, and non-regular mass events organized by the Orthodox Church and new religious movements. Results The bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses found significant changes in some suicide-related behaviour rates in the city’s population after certain kinds of mass gatherings. In particular, we observed an increased relative risk (RR) of male suicide-related behaviour after a home defeat of the local football team (RR = 1.32, p = 0.047; regression coefficient beta = 0.371, p = 0.002), and an increased risk of male suicides (RR = 1.29, p = 0.006; beta =0.255, p = 0.002), male suicide-related behaviour (RR = 1.25, p = 0.019; beta =0.251, p < 0.001), and total suicide-related behaviour (RR = 1.23 p < 0.001; beta =0.187, p < 0.001) after events organized by the new religious movements. Conclusions Although football games and mass events organized by new religious movements involved a relatively small part of an urban population (1.6 and 0.3%, respectively), we observed a significant increase of the some suicide-related behaviour rates in the whole population. It is likely that the observed effect on suicide-related behaviour is related to one’s personal presence at the event rather than to its broadcast. Our findings can be explained largely in terms of Gabennesch’s theory of the ‘broken-promises effect’ with regard to intra- and interpersonal conflict and, in terms of crowd behaviour effects. PMID:24708574

Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise and prediction of cardiovascular events: One stone to kill two birds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellier, Philippe; Lecouffe, Pascal; Zureik, Mahmoud

2007-02-01

BackgroundPeripheral arterial disease (PAD) is commonly associated with a high cardiovascular mortality and morbidity as a marker of plurifocal atherosclerosis. Whether exercise thallium perfusion muscular asymmetry in the legs associated with PAD has prognostic value is unknown. Such a hypothesis was evaluated in a prospective study which remains the gold standard in clinical research. Methods and resultsScintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise (SCPSE) was measured at the end of a maximal or symptom-limited treadmill exercise test in 358 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). During the follow-up period (mean 85.3±32.8 months), 93 cardiovascular events and deaths (incident cases) occurred. Among those incident cases, the percentage of subjects with higher SCPSE values (third tertile) was 45.2%, versus 29.1% in controls (lower tertiles) ( p=0.005). In stepwise multivariate analysis performed with the Cox proportional hazards model, previous CAD and SCPSE were the only significant independent predictors of prognosis. The multivariate relative risk of cardiovascular death or event in subjects with higher values of SCPSE was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.15-3.21; p<0.01). ConclusionsScintigraphic calf perfusion asymmetry after exercise was independently associated with incident cardiovascular events in high-risk subjects. This index, which is easily and quickly calculated, could be used for evaluation of cardiovascular risk.

Adult males with haemophilia have a different macrovascular and microvascular endothelial function profile compared with healthy controls.

PubMed

Sun, H; Yang, M; Fung, M; Chan, S; Jawi, M; Anderson, T; Poon, M-C; Jackson, S

2017-09-01

Endothelial function has been identified as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk in the general population. It is unclear if the haemophilia population has a different endothelial function profile compared to the healthy population. This prospective study aims to assess if there is a difference in endothelial function between haemophilia patients and healthy controls, and the impact of endothelial function on vascular outcomes in the haemophilia population. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors and endothelial function were presented. Adult males with haemophilia A or B recruited from the British Columbia and Southern Alberta haemophilia treatment centres were matched to healthy male controls by age and cardiovascular risk factors. Macrovascular endothelial function was assessed by brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and nitroglycerin-mediated dilation (NMD), and microvascular endothelial function was assessed by hyperaemic velocity time integral (VTI). Multivariable linear regression was used to assess the association between haemophilia and endothelial function. A total of 81 patients with haemophilia and 243 controls were included. Patients with haemophilia had a similar FMD and NMD compared to controls, although haemophilia was associated with higher FMD on multivariable analysis. Haemophilia was associated with significantly lower VTI on univariate and multivariable analyses, regardless of haemophilia type and severity. Adult males with haemophilia appear to have lower microvascular endothelial function compared to healthy controls. Future studies to assess the impact of endothelial dysfunction on cardiovascular events in the haemophilia population are needed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Levothyroxine treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism, fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events, and mortality.

PubMed

Razvi, Salman; Weaver, Jolanta U; Butler, Timothy J; Pearce, Simon H S

2012-05-28

BACKGROUND Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) has been associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD); however, it is unknown whether treatment of SCH with levothyroxine sodium will reduce the risk of IHD. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between levothyroxine treatment of SCH with IHD morbidity and mortality. METHODS We used the United Kingdom General Practitioner Research Database to identify individuals with new SCH (serum thyrotropin levels of 5.01-10.0 mIU/L and normal free thyroxine levels) recorded during 2001 with outcomes analyzed until March 2009. All analyses were performed separately for younger (40-70 years) and older (>70 years) individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) for IHD events (fatal and nonfatal) were calculated after adjustment for conventional IHD risk factors, baseline serum thyrotropin levels, and initiation of levothyroxine treatment as a time-dependent covariate. RESULTS Subclinical hypothyroidism was identified in 3093 younger and 1642 older individuals. For a median follow-up period of 7.6 years, 52.8% and 49.9% of younger and older patients with SCH were treated with levothyroxine, respectively. There were 68 incident IHD events in 1634 younger patients treated with levothyroxine (4.2%) vs 97 IHD events in 1459 untreated individuals (6.6%) (multivariate-adjusted HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39-0.95). In contrast, in the older group there were 104 events in 819 treated patients (12.7%) vs 88 events in 823 untreated individuals (10.7%) (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.59-1.33). CONCLUSIONS Treatment of SCH with levothyroxine was associated with fewer IHD events in younger individuals, but this was not evident in older people. An appropriately powered randomized controlled trial of levothyroxine in SCH examining vascular outcomes is now warranted.

Evaluation of an F100 multivariable control using a real-time engine simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szuch, J. R.; Skira, C.; Soeder, J. F.

1977-01-01

A multivariable control design for the F100 turbofan engine was evaluated, as part of the F100 multivariable control synthesis (MVCS) program. The evaluation utilized a real-time, hybrid computer simulation of the engine and a digital computer implementation of the control. Significant results of the evaluation are presented and recommendations concerning future engine testing of the control are made.

External ocular surface and lens microbiota in contact lens wearers with corneal infiltrates during extended wear of hydrogel lenses.

PubMed

Willcox, Mark; Sharma, Savitri; Naduvilath, Thomas J; Sankaridurg, Padmaja R; Gopinathan, Usha; Holden, Brien A

2011-03-01

To determine whether carriage of microbes on the contact lens or ocular surfaces during extended wear (EW) with soft hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA)-based contact lenses predisposes the wearer to adverse events. Participants (non-contact lens wearers) were enrolled in a clinical study involving wear of HEMA-based hydrogel lenses on a six night EW basis with weekly replacement. Type and number of bacteria colonizing the lower lid margins, upper bulbar conjunctiva, and contact lenses during EW after one night, 1 week, 1 month, and thereafter every 3 months for 3.5 years were determined. The association of bacteria with adverse responses was compared between carriers (defined as having significant microbes cultured from two or more samples with 1 year) and noncarriers, and the strength of the association was estimated using multivariate logistic regression. Carriers of gram-positive bacteria on lenses (particularly coagulase negative staphylococci or Corynebacterium spp.) were approximately three and eight times more likely to develop contact lens-induced peripheral ulcers (CLPUs) and asymptomatic infiltrates (AIs), respectively. Staphylococcus aureus was most frequently isolated from lenses during CLPU. Carriers of gram-negative bacteria on lenses were five times more likely to develop contact lens-induced acute red eye (CLARE). Haemophilus influenzae was isolated most frequently from lenses during CLARE and AI events. Bacterial carriage on contact lenses during EW predisposes the wearer to the development of corneal inflammatory events including CLARE, CLPU, and AI.

Depth Discrimination Using Rg-to-Sg Spectral Amplitude Ratios for Seismic Events in Utah Recorded at Local Distances

DOE PAGES

Tibi, Rigobert; Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine L.; ...

2018-03-20

Most of the commonly used seismic discrimination approaches are designed for regional data. Relatively little attention has focused on discriminants for local distances (< 200 km), the range at which the smallest events are recorded. We take advantage of the variety of seismic sources and the existence of a dense regional seismic network in the Utah region to evaluate amplitude ratio seismic discrimination at local distances. First, we explored phase-amplitude Pg-to-Sg ratios for multiple frequency bands to classify events in a dataset that comprises populations of single-shot surface explosions, shallow and deep ripple-fired mining blasts, mining-induced events, and tectonic earthquakes.more » We achieved a limited success. Then, for the same dataset, we combined the Pg-to-Sg phase-amplitude ratios with Sg-to-Rg spectral amplitude ratios in a multivariate quadratic discriminant function (QDF) approach. For two-category, pairwise classification, seven out of ten population pairs show misclassification rates of about 20% or less, with five pairs showing rates of about 10% or less. The approach performs best for the pair involving the populations of single-shot explosions and mining-induced events. By combining both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios in the multivariate QDFs, we are able to achieve an average improvement of about 4–14% in misclassification rates compared to Pg-to-Sg ratios alone. When all five event populations are considered simultaneously, as expected, the potential for misclassification increases and our QDF approach using both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios achieves an average success rate of about 74%, compared to the rate of about 86% for two-category, pairwise classification.« less

Depth Discrimination Using Rg-to-Sg Spectral Amplitude Ratios for Seismic Events in Utah Recorded at Local Distances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tibi, Rigobert; Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine L.

Most of the commonly used seismic discrimination approaches are designed for regional data. Relatively little attention has focused on discriminants for local distances (< 200 km), the range at which the smallest events are recorded. We take advantage of the variety of seismic sources and the existence of a dense regional seismic network in the Utah region to evaluate amplitude ratio seismic discrimination at local distances. First, we explored phase-amplitude Pg-to-Sg ratios for multiple frequency bands to classify events in a dataset that comprises populations of single-shot surface explosions, shallow and deep ripple-fired mining blasts, mining-induced events, and tectonic earthquakes.more » We achieved a limited success. Then, for the same dataset, we combined the Pg-to-Sg phase-amplitude ratios with Sg-to-Rg spectral amplitude ratios in a multivariate quadratic discriminant function (QDF) approach. For two-category, pairwise classification, seven out of ten population pairs show misclassification rates of about 20% or less, with five pairs showing rates of about 10% or less. The approach performs best for the pair involving the populations of single-shot explosions and mining-induced events. By combining both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios in the multivariate QDFs, we are able to achieve an average improvement of about 4–14% in misclassification rates compared to Pg-to-Sg ratios alone. When all five event populations are considered simultaneously, as expected, the potential for misclassification increases and our QDF approach using both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios achieves an average success rate of about 74%, compared to the rate of about 86% for two-category, pairwise classification.« less

Higher risk of venous thrombosis associated with drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Gronich, Naomi; Lavi, Idit; Rennert, Gad

2011-01-01

Background: Combined oral contraceptives are a common method of contraception, but they carry a risk of venous and arterial thrombosis. We assessed whether use of drospirenone was associated with an increase in thrombotic risk relative to third-generation combined oral contraceptives. Methods: Using computerized records of the largest health care provider in Israel, we identified all women aged 12 to 50 years for whom combined oral contraceptives had been dispensed between Jan. 1, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2008. We followed the cohort until 2009. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the crude and adjusted rate ratios for risk factors for venous thrombotic events (specifically deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) and arterial thromboic events (specifically transient ischemic attack and cerebrovascular accident). We performed multivariable analyses to compare types of contraceptives, with adjustment for the various risk factors. Results: We identified a total of 1017 (0.24%) venous and arterial thrombotic events among 431 223 use episodes during 819 749 woman-years of follow-up (6.33 venous events and 6.10 arterial events per 10 000 woman-years). In a multivariable model, use of drospirenone carried an increased risk of venous thrombotic events, relative to both third-generation combined oral contraceptives (rate ratio [RR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15–1.78) and second-generation combined oral contraceptives (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.02–2.65). There was no increase in the risk of arterial thrombosis with drospirenone. Interpretation: Use of drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives was associated with an increased risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, but not transient ischemic attack or cerebrovascular attack, relative to second- and third-generation combined oral contraceptives. PMID:22065352

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Skin Sensitization Hazard in Humans

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s highest priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single alternative me...

Multivariate models for skin sensitization hazard and potency

EPA Science Inventory

One of the top priorities being addressed by ICCVAM is the identification and validation of non-animal alternatives for skin sensitization testing. Although skin sensitization is a complex process, the key biological events have been well characterized in an adverse outcome pathw...

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single alternative method...

Time-varying associations of suicide with deployments, mental health conditions, and stressful life events among current and former US military personnel: a retrospective multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Yu-Chu; Cunha, Jesse M; Williams, Thomas V

2016-11-01

US military suicides have increased substantially over the past decade and currently account for almost 20% of all military deaths. We investigated the associations of a comprehensive set of time-varying risk factors with suicides among current and former military service members. We did a retrospective multivariate analysis of all US military personnel between 2001 and 2011 (n=110 035 573 person-quarter-years, representing 3 795 823 service members). Outcome was death by suicide, either during service or post-separation. We used Cox proportional hazard models at the person-quarter level to examine associations of deployment, mental disorders, history of unlawful activity, stressful life events, and other demographic and service factors with death by suicide. The strongest predictors of death by suicide were current and past diagnoses of self-inflicted injuries, major depression, bipolar disorder, substance use disorder, and other mental health conditions (compared with service members with no history of diagnoses, the hazard ratio [HR] ranged from 1·4 [95% CI 1·14-1·72] to 8·34 [6·71-10·37]). Compared with service members who were never deployed, hazard rates of suicide (which represent the probability of death by suicide in a specific quarter given that the individual was alive in the previous quarter) were lower among the currently deployed (HR 0·50, 95% CI 0·40-0·61) but significantly higher in the quarters following first deployment (HR 1·51 [1·17-1·96] if deployed in the previous three quarters; 1·14 [1·06-1·23] if deployed four or more quarters ago). The hazard rate of suicide increased within the first year of separation from the military (HR 2·49, 95% CI 2·12-2·91), and remained high for those who had separated from the military 6 or more years ago (HR 1·63, 1·45-1·82). The increased hazard rate of death by suicide for military personnel varies by time since exposure to deployment, mental health diagnoses, and other stressful life events. Continued monitoring is especially needed for these high-risk individuals. Additional information should be gathered to address the persistently raised risk of suicide among service members after separation. Partly funded by the Naval Research Program. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Hazards Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study in Elwood, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk assessment studies have been carried out from a univariate frequency analysis perspective. However, statistical dependence between hydrological variables, such as extreme rainfall and extreme sea surge, is plausible to exist, since both variables to some extent are driven by common meteorological conditions. Aiming to overcome this limitation, multivariate statistical techniques has the potential to combine different sources of flooding in the investigation. The aim of this study was to apply a range of statistical methodologies for analyzing combined extreme hydrological variables that can lead to coastal and urban flooding. The study area is the Elwood Catchment, which is a highly urbanized catchment located in the city of Port Phillip, Melbourne, Australia. The first part of the investigation dealt with the marginal extreme value distributions. Two approaches to extract extreme value series were applied (Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series), and different probability distribution functions were fit to the observed sample. Results obtained by using the Generalized Pareto distribution demonstrate the ability of the Pareto family to model the extreme events. Advancing into multivariate extreme value analysis, first an investigation regarding the asymptotic properties of extremal dependence was carried out. As a weak positive asymptotic dependence between the bivariate extreme pairs was found, the Conditional method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004) was chosen. This approach is suitable to model bivariate extreme values, which are relatively unlikely to occur together. The results show that the probability of an extreme sea surge occurring during a one-hour intensity extreme precipitation event (or vice versa) can be twice as great as what would occur when assuming independent events. Therefore, presuming independence between these two variables would result in severe underestimation of the flooding risk in the study area.

Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

The structural equation analysis of childhood abuse, adult stressful life events, and temperaments in major depressive disorders and their influence on refractoriness

PubMed Central

Toda, Hiroyuki; Inoue, Takeshi; Tsunoda, Tomoya; Nakai, Yukiei; Tanichi, Masaaki; Tanaka, Teppei; Hashimoto, Naoki; Nakato, Yasuya; Nakagawa, Shin; Kitaichi, Yuji; Mitsui, Nobuyuki; Boku, Shuken; Tanabe, Hajime; Nibuya, Masashi; Yoshino, Aihide; Kusumi, Ichiro

2015-01-01

Background Previous studies have shown the interaction between heredity and childhood stress or life events on the pathogenesis of a major depressive disorder (MDD). In this study, we tested our hypothesis that childhood abuse, affective temperaments, and adult stressful life events interact and influence the diagnosis of MDD. Patients and methods A total of 170 healthy controls and 98 MDD patients were studied using the following self-administered questionnaire surveys: the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), the Life Experiences Survey, the Temperament Evaluation of the Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego Autoquestionnaire, and the Child Abuse and Trauma Scale (CATS). The data were analyzed with univariate analysis, multivariable analysis, and structural equation modeling. Results The neglect scores of the CATS indirectly predicted the diagnosis of MDD through cyclothymic and anxious temperament scores of the Temperament Evaluation of the Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego Autoquestionnaire in the structural equation modeling. Two temperaments – cyclothymic and anxious – directly predicted the diagnosis of MDD. The validity of this result was supported by the results of the stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis as follows: three factors – neglect, cyclothymic, and anxious temperaments – were significant predictors of MDD. Neglect and the total CATS scores were also predictors of remission vs treatment-resistance in MDD patients independently of depressive symptoms. Limitations The sample size was small for the comparison between the remission and treatment-resistant groups in MDD patients in multivariable analysis. Conclusion This study suggests that childhood abuse, especially neglect, indirectly predicted the diagnosis of MDD through increased affective temperaments. The important role as a mediator of affective temperaments in the effect of childhood abuse on MDD was suggested. PMID:26316754

The role of natural disaster in individual and relational adjustment in Sri Lankan mothers following the 2004 tsunami.

PubMed

Banford, Alyssa; Ivey, David C; Wickrama, Thulitha; Fischer, Judith; Prouty, Anne; Smith, Douglas

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between maternal mental health distress symptoms, including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, the extent to which the presence of a child's disaster-related physical health problem(s) have interfered with daily functioning, and family cohesion over time among Sri Lankan mothers who survived the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Study variables were measured using a self-report questionnaire administered approximately four months after the event and three years later in summer 2008. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were conducted. Path analysis was employed to assess the relationships between the key variables over time and the correlations in the study variables at each time point. Among other findings, the results of the path analysis indicated that post-traumatic stress symptom distress four months after the disaster significantly predicted variance in family cohesion three years later. Clinical and empirical research implications are presented and discussed. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Sleep analysis for wearable devices applying autoregressive parametric models.

PubMed

Mendez, M O; Villantieri, O; Bianchi, A; Cerutti, S

2005-01-01

We applied time-variant and time-invariant parametric models in both healthy subjects and patients with sleep disorder recordings in order to assess the skills of those approaches to sleep disorders diagnosis in wearable devices. The recordings present the Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) pathology which is characterized by fluctuations in the heart rate, bradycardia in apneonic phase and tachycardia at the recovery of ventilation. Data come from a web database in www.physionet.org. During OSA the spectral indexes obtained by time-variant lattice filters presented oscillations that correspond to the changes brady-tachycardia of the RR intervals and greater values than healthy ones. Multivariate autoregressive models showed an increment in very low frequency component (PVLF) at each apneic event. Also a rise in high frequency component (PHF) occurred over the breathing restore in the spectrum of both quadratic coherence and cross-spectrum in OSA. These autoregressive parametric approaches could help in the diagnosis of Sleep Disorder inside of the wearable devices.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, C. L.; Funk, L. L.; Riedel, R. A.

3He gas based neutron linear-position-sensitive detectors (LPSDs) have been applied for many neutron scattering instruments. Traditional Pulse-Height Analysis (PHA) for Neutron-Gamma Discrimination (NGD) resulted in the neutron-gamma efficiency ratio on the orders of 10 5-10 6. The NGD ratios of 3He detectors need to be improved for even better scientific results from neutron scattering. Digital Signal Processing (DSP) analyses of waveforms were proposed for obtaining better NGD ratios, based on features extracted from rise-time, pulse amplitude, charge integration, a simplified Wiener filter, and the cross-correlation between individual and template waveforms of neutron and gamma events. Fisher linear discriminant analysis (FLDA)more » and three multivariate analyses (MVAs) of the features were performed. The NGD ratios are improved by about 10 2-10 3 times compared with the traditional PHA method. Finally, our results indicate the NGD capabilities of 3He tube detectors can be significantly improved with subspace-learning based methods, which may result in a reduced data-collection time and better data quality for further data reduction.« less

Longitudinal Consistency in Self-Reported Age of First Vaginal Intercourse Among Young Adults

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Shoshana K.; Haydon, Abigail A.; Herring, Amy H.; Halpern, Carolyn T.

2014-01-01

We examined consistency in self-reports of age at first vaginal sex among 9,399 male and female respondents who participated in Waves III and IV (separated by approximately 7 years) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Respondents were coded as consistent if they reported an age at first vaginal intercourse at Wave IV that was within 1 year of the age they reported at Wave III. Sociodemographic, behavioral, and cognitive predictors of consistency were examined using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Overall, 85.43% of respondents were able to provide consistent reports. Among both males and females, consistency was associated with age, years since first vaginal intercourse, race/ethnicity, and lifetime number of other-sex partners in final multivariate models. Respondents who were older and had more recently had their first sexual experience were more likely to be consistent. For females only, those who reported a history of non-parental, physically forced sex were less likely to be consistent. Most young adults consistently report age at first vaginal intercourse, supporting the credibility of retrospective self-reports about salient sexual events such as timing of first vaginal intercourse. PMID:23237101

CT fluoroscopy-guided preoperative short hook wire placement for small pulmonary lesions: evaluation of safety and identification of risk factors for pneumothorax.

PubMed

Iguchi, Toshihiro; Hiraki, Takao; Gobara, Hideo; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Matsui, Yusuke; Miyoshi, Shinichiro; Kanazawa, Susumu

2016-01-01

To retrospectively evaluate the safety of computed tomography (CT) fluoroscopy-guided short hook wire placement for video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery and the risk factors for pneumothorax associated with this procedure. We analyzed 267 short hook wire placements for 267 pulmonary lesions (mean diameter, 9.9 mm). Multiple variables related to the patients, lesions, and procedures were assessed to determine the risk factors for pneumothorax. Complications (219 grade 1 and 4 grade 2 adverse events) occurred in 196 procedures. No grade 3 or above adverse events were observed. Univariate analysis revealed increased vital capacity (odds ratio [OR], 1.518; P = 0.021), lower lobe lesion (OR, 2.343; P =0.001), solid lesion (OR, 1.845; P = 0.014), prone positioning (OR, 1.793; P = 0.021), transfissural approach (OR, 11.941; P = 0.017), and longer procedure time (OR, 1.036; P = 0.038) were significant predictors of pneumothorax. Multivariate analysis revealed only the transfissural approach (OR, 12.171; P = 0.018) and a longer procedure time (OR, 1.048; P = 0.012) as significant independent predictors. Complications related to CT fluoroscopy-guided preoperative short hook wire placement often occurred, but all complications were minor. A transfissural approach and longer procedure time were significant independent predictors of pneumothorax. Complications related to CT fluoroscopy-guided preoperative short hook wire placement often occur. Complications are usually minor and asymptomatic. A transfissural approach and longer procedure time are significant independent predictors of pneumothorax.

Social Branding to Decrease Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Young Adult Smoking

PubMed Central

Fallin, Amanda; Neilands, Torsten B.; Jordan, Jeffrey W.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals are more likely to smoke than the general population. This study evaluated a Social Branding intervention, CRUSH, which included an aspirational brand, social events, and targeted media to discourage smoking among LGBT young adults in Las Vegas, NV. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys (N = 2,395) were collected in Las Vegas LGBT bars at 2 time points 1 year apart. Multivariate logistic regressions examined associations between campaign exposure, message understanding, and current (past 30 days) smoking, controlling for demographics. Results: LGBT individuals were significantly more likely to report current (past 30 day) smoking than heterosexual/straight, gender-conforming participants. Overall, 53% of respondents reported exposure to CRUSH; of those exposed, 60% liked the campaign, 60.3% reported they would attend a CRUSH event on a night when they usually went somewhere else, and 86.3% correctly identified that the campaign was about “partying fresh and smokefree.” Current smoking was reported by 47% of respondents at Time 1 and 39.6% at Time 2. There were significant interactions between time and campaign exposure and campaign exposure and understanding the message. Among those who understood the CRUSH smokefree message, the highest level of campaign exposure was significantly associated with 37%–48% lower odds for current smoking. Conclusions: While longitudinal studies would better assess the impact of this intervention, CRUSH shows promise to reduce tobacco use among LGBT bar patrons. PMID:26180223

Chronic Stress is Prospectively Associated with Sleep in Midlife Women: The SWAN Sleep Study

PubMed Central

Hall, Martica H.; Casement, Melynda D.; Troxel, Wendy M.; Matthews, Karen A.; Bromberger, Joyce T.; Kravitz, Howard M.; Krafty, Robert T.; Buysse, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: Evaluate whether levels of upsetting life events measured over a 9-y period prospectively predict subjective and objective sleep outcomes in midlife women. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Four sites across the United States. Participants: 330 women (46–57 y of age) enrolled in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Sleep Study. Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Upsetting life events were assessed annually for up to 9 y. Trajectory analysis applied to life events data quantitatively identified three distinct chronic stress groups: low stress, moderate stress, and high stress. Sleep was assessed by self-report and in-home polysomnography (PSG) during the ninth year of the study. Multivariate analyses tested the prospective association between chronic stress group and sleep, adjusting for race, baseline sleep complaints, marital status, body mass index, symptoms of depression, and acute life events at the time of the Sleep Study. Women characterized by high chronic stress had lower subjective sleep quality, were more likely to report insomnia, and exhibited increased PSG-assessed wake after sleep onset (WASO) relative to women with low to moderate chronic stress profiles. The effect of chronic stress group on WASO persisted in the subsample of participants without baseline sleep complaints. Conclusions: Chronic stress is prospectively associated with sleep disturbance in midlife women, even after adjusting for acute stressors at the time of the sleep study and other factors known to disrupt sleep. These results are consistent with current models of stress that emphasize the cumulative effect of stressors on health over time. Citation: Hall MH, Casement MD, Troxel WM, Matthews KA, Bromberger JT, Kravitz HM, Krafty RT, Buysse DJ. Chronic stress is prospectively associated with sleep in midlife women: the SWAN Sleep Study. SLEEP 2015;38(10):1645–1654. PMID:26039965

Risk of Cardiac Events Associated With Antidepressant Therapy in Patients With Long QT Syndrome.

PubMed

Wang, Meng; Szepietowska, Barbara; Polonsky, Bronislava; McNitt, Scott; Moss, Arthur J; Zareba, Wojciech; Auerbach, David S

2018-01-15

Patients with long QT syndrome (LQTS) are at a high risk of cardiac events. Many patients with LQTS are treated with antidepressant drugs (ADs). We investigated the LQTS genotype-specific risk of recurrent cardiac arrhythmic events (CAEs) associated with AD therapy. The study included 59 LQT1 and 72 LQT2 patients from the Rochester-based LQTS Registry with corrected QT (QT c ) prolongation and a history of AD therapy. Using multivariate Anderson-Gill models, we estimated the LQTS genotype-specific risk of recurrent CAEs (ventricular tachyarrhythmias, aborted cardiac arrest, or sudden cardiac death) associated with time-dependent ADs. Specifically, we examined the risk associated with all ADs, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), and ADs classified on the CredibleMeds list (www.CredibleMeds.org) as "Conditional" or "Known risk of Torsades de pointes (TdP)." After adjusting for baseline QT c duration, sex, and time-dependent beta-blocker usage, there was an increased risk of recurrent CAEs associated with ADs in LQT1 patients (hazard ratio = 3.67, 95% confidence interval 1.98-6.82, p < 0.001) but not in LQT2 patients (hazard ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.49-1.64, p = 0.716; LQT1 vs LQT2 interaction, p < 0.001). Similarly, LQT1 patients who were on SSRIs or ADs with "Known risk of TdP" had a higher risk of recurrent CAEs than those patients off all ADs, whereas there was no association in LQT2 patients. ADs with "Conditional risk of TdP" were not associated with the risk of recurrent CAEs in any of the groups. In conclusion, the risk of recurrent CAEs associated with time-dependent ADs is higher in LQT1 patients but not in LQT2 patients. Results suggest a LQTS genotype-specific effect of ADs on the risk of arrhythmic events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using agency nurses to fill RN vacancies within specialized hospice and palliative care

PubMed Central

Cozad, Melanie J.; Lindley, Lisa C.; Mixer, Sandy J.

2016-01-01

The use of agency nurses offers flexibility in filling registered nurse openings during times of shortage, yet little is known about their use in specialized palliative care. In an effort to fill this knowledge gap, this study determined whether significant relationships existed between full-time and part-time RN vacancies and the use of agency RNs within specialized hospices that deliver perinatal end of life care to women and their families in the event of miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy, or other neonatal complications resulting in death. This study used data from the 2007 National Home and Hospice Care Survey and multivariate regression methods to estimate the association between RN vacancies and agency RNs use. Approximately 13% of perinatal hospices in 2007 used agency nurses. Increases in full-time RN vacancies are associated with a significant increase in the use of agency RNs, while part-time RN vacancies are associated with a significant decrease in agency RNs. These results suggest that full-time agency RNs were used as a supplemental workforce to fill vacancies until the full-time position is recruited. However, for part-time vacancies, the responsibilities of those positions shifted onto existing staff and the position was not filled. PMID:27683508

Online analysis: Deeper insights into water quality dynamics in spring water.

PubMed

Page, Rebecca M; Besmer, Michael D; Epting, Jannis; Sigrist, Jürg A; Hammes, Frederik; Huggenberger, Peter

2017-12-01

We have studied the dynamics of water quality in three karst springs taking advantage of new technological developments that enable high-resolution measurements of bacterial load (total cell concentration: TCC) as well as online measurements of abiotic parameters. We developed a novel data analysis approach, using self-organizing maps and non-linear projection methods, to approximate the TCC dynamics using the multivariate data sets of abiotic parameter time-series, thus providing a method that could be implemented in an online water quality management system for water suppliers. The (TCC) data, obtained over several months, provided a good basis to study the microbiological dynamics in detail. Alongside the TCC measurements, online abiotic parameter time-series, including spring discharge, turbidity, spectral absorption coefficient at 254nm (SAC254) and electrical conductivity, were obtained. High-density sampling over an extended period of time, i.e. every 45min for 3months, allowed a detailed analysis of the dynamics in karst spring water quality. Substantial increases in both the TCC and the abiotic parameters followed precipitation events in the catchment area. Differences between the parameter fluctuations were only apparent when analyzed at a high temporal scale. Spring discharge was always the first to react to precipitation events in the catchment area. Lag times between the onset of precipitation and a change in discharge varied between 0.2 and 6.7h, depending on the spring and event. TCC mostly reacted second or approximately concurrent with turbidity and SAC254, whereby the fastest observed reaction in the TCC time series occurred after 2.3h. The methodological approach described here enables a better understanding of bacterial dynamics in karst springs, which can be used to estimate risks and management options to avoid contamination of the drinking water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of neutrophil/leukocyte ratio and organ failure score as predictors of reversibility and survival following an acute-on-chronic liver failure event.

PubMed

Agiasotelli, Danai; Alexopoulou, Alexandra; Vasilieva, Larisa; Kalpakou, Georgia; Papadaki, Sotiria; Dourakis, Spyros P

2016-05-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined as an acute deterioration of liver disease with high mortality in patients with cirrhosis. The early mortality in ACLF is associated with organ failure and high leukocyte count. The time needed to reverse this condition and the factors affecting mortality after the early 30-day-period were evaluated. One hundred and ninety-seven consecutive patients with cirrhosis were included. Patients were prospectively followed up for 180 days. ACLF was diagnosed in 54.8% of the patients. Infection was the most common precipitating event in patients with ACLF. On multivariate analysis, only the neutrophil/leukocyte ratio and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Organ Failure (CLIF-C OF) score were associated with mortality. Hazard ratios for mortality of patients with ACLF compared with those without at different time end-points post-enrollment revealed that the relative risk of death in the ACLF group was 8.54 during the first 30-day period and declined to 1.94 during the second period of observation. The time varying effect of neutrophil/leukocyte ratio and CLIF-C score was negative (1% and 18% decline in the hazard ratio per month) while that of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was positive (3% increase in the hazard ratio per month). The condition of ACLF was reversible in patients who survived. During the 30-180-day period following the acute event, the probability of death in ACLF became gradually similar to the non-ACLF group. The impact of inflammatory response and organ failure on survival is powerful during the first 30-day period and weakens thereafter while that of MELD increases. © 2015 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Process connectivity reveals ecohydrologic sensitivity to drought and rainfall pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwell, A. E.; Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

Ecohydrologic fluxes within atmosphere, canopy and soil systems exhibit complex and joint variability. This complexity arises from direct and indirect forcing and feedback interactions that can cause fluctuations to propagate between water, energy, and nutrient fluxes at various time scales. When an ecosystem is perturbed in the form of a single storm event, an accumulating drought, or changes in climate and land cover, this aspect of joint variability may dictate responsiveness and resilience of the entire system. A characterization of the time-dependent and multivariate connectivity between processes, fluxes, and states is necessary to identify and understand these aspects of ecohydrologic systems. We construct Temporal Information Partitioning Networks (TIPNets), based on information theory measures, to identify time-dependencies between variables measured at flux towers along elevation and climate gradients in relation to their responses to moisture-related perturbations. Along a flux tower transect in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) in Idaho, we detect a significant network response to a large 2015 dry season rainfall event that enhances microbial respiration and latent heat fluxes. At a transect in the Southern Sierra CZO in California, we explore network properties in relation to drought responses from 2011 to 2015. We find that both high and low elevation sites exhibit decreased connectivity between atmospheric and soil variables and latent heat fluxes, but the higher elevation site is less sensitive to this altered connectivity in terms of average monthly heat fluxes. Through a novel approach to gage the responsiveness of ecosystem fluxes to shifts in connectivity, this study aids our understanding of ecohydrologic sensitivity to short-term rainfall events and longer term droughts. This study is relevant to ecosystem resilience under a changing climate, and can lead to a greater understanding of shifting behaviors in many types of complex systems.

Epidemiology, clinical management, and outcomes of dogs involved in road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom (2009-2014).

PubMed

Harris, Georgina L; Brodbelt, David; Church, David; Humm, Karen; McGreevy, Paul D; Thomson, Peter C; O'Neill, Dan

2018-03-01

To estimate the prevalence and risk factors for road traffic accidents (RTA) in dogs and describe the management and outcome of these dogs attending primary-care veterinary practices in the United Kingdom. Retrospective cross-sectional study. Primary-care veterinary practices in the United Kingdom. The study population included 199,464 dogs attending 115 primary-care clinics across the United Kingdom. Electronic patient records of dogs attending practices participating in the VetCompass Programme were assessed against selection criteria used to define RTA cases. Cases identified as RTAs were identified and manually verified to calculate prevalence. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods were used to evaluate associations between risk factors and RTA. The prevalence of RTA was 0.41%. Of the RTA cases, 615 (74.9%) were purebred, 322 (39.2%) were female, and 285 (54.8%) were insured. The median age at RTA was 2.5 years. After accounting for the effects of other factors, younger dogs had increased odds of an RTA event: dogs aged under 3 years showed 2.9 times the odds and dogs aged between 6-9 years showed 1.8 times the odds of an RTA event compared with dogs aged over 14 years. Males had 1.4 times the odds of an RTA event compared with females. Overall, 22.9% of cases died from a cause associated with RTA. Of dogs with information available, 34.0% underwent diagnostic imaging, 29.4% received intravenous fluid-therapy, 71.1% received pain relief, 46.0% were hospitalized, and 15.6% had surgery performed under general anesthetic. This study identified important demographic factors associated with RTA in dogs, notably being young and male. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2018.

Large-scale precipitation tracking and the MJO over the Maritime Continent and Indo-Pacific warm pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerns, Brandon W.; Chen, Shuyi S.

2016-08-01

A large-scale precipitation tracking (LPT) method is developed to track convection and precipitation associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission 3B42 rainfall data from October to March 1998-2015. LPT uses spatially smoothed 3 day rainfall accumulation to identify and track precipitation features in time with a minimum size of 300,000 km2 and time continuity at least 10 days. While not all LPT systems (LPTs) are attributable to the MJO, among the 199 LPTs, there were 42 with a mean eastward propagation of at least 2 m s-1, which are considered to be MJO convective initiation events. These LPTs capture the diversity of the MJO convection, which is not well depicted by the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index or the outgoing longwave radiation MJO index. During the 17 years, there were 17 instances out of 45 with a MJO signature in the RMM without eastward propagating LPTs. Among the 42 eastward propagating LPTs, 24 propagated across the Maritime Continent (MC), which confirms the MC barrier effect. Among the cases that crossed the MC from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific (MC crossing), 18 (75%) had a significant MJO signature in the RMM index. In contrast, only six (33%) of the non-MC-crossing cases occurred with a RMM MJO signal. There is a significant seasonal and interannual variability with MC-crossing LPTs occurring in December more commonly than other months. More MC-crossing events were observed during La Niña than El Niño, which is consistent with the observations of stronger and more frequent MJO events identified by RMM during La Niña years.

Predictive modeling of EEG time series for evaluating surgery targets in epilepsy patients.

PubMed

Steimer, Andreas; Müller, Michael; Schindler, Kaspar

2017-05-01

During the last 20 years, predictive modeling in epilepsy research has largely been concerned with the prediction of seizure events, whereas the inference of effective brain targets for resective surgery has received surprisingly little attention. In this exploratory pilot study, we describe a distributional clustering framework for the modeling of multivariate time series and use it to predict the effects of brain surgery in epilepsy patients. By analyzing the intracranial EEG, we demonstrate how patients who became seizure free after surgery are clearly distinguished from those who did not. More specifically, for 5 out of 7 patients who obtained seizure freedom (= Engel class I) our method predicts the specific collection of brain areas that got actually resected during surgery to yield a markedly lower posterior probability for the seizure related clusters, when compared to the resection of random or empty collections. Conversely, for 4 out of 5 Engel class III/IV patients who still suffer from postsurgical seizures, performance of the actually resected collection is not significantly better than performances displayed by random or empty collections. As the number of possible collections ranges into billions and more, this is a substantial contribution to a problem that today is still solved by visual EEG inspection. Apart from epilepsy research, our clustering methodology is also of general interest for the analysis of multivariate time series and as a generative model for temporally evolving functional networks in the neurosciences and beyond. Hum Brain Mapp 38:2509-2531, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Risk of Developing Diabetes Mellitus in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Eder, Lihi; Chandran, Vinod; Cook, Richard; Gladman, Dafna D

2017-03-01

To estimate the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in comparison with the general population and to assess whether the level of disease activity over time predicts the development of DM in these patients. A cohort analysis was conducted in patients followed in a large PsA clinic from 1978 to 2014. The prevalence of DM in the patients was compared with the general population of Ontario, Canada, and the age-standardized prevalence ratio (SPR) was calculated. For the assessment of risk factors for DM, time-weighted arithmetic mean (AM) levels of PsA-related disease activity measures were assessed as predictors for the development of DM. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute HR for incident DM after controlling for potential confounders. A total of 1305 patients were included in the analysis. The SPR of DM in PsA compared with the general population in Ontario was 1.43 (p = 0.002). Of the 1065 patients who were included in the time-to-event analysis, 73 patients were observed to develop DM. Based on multivariable analyses, AM tender joint count (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.18, p = 0.02) and AM erythrocyte sedimentation rate (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03-1.41, p = 0.02) predicted the development of DM. The prevalence of DM is higher in patients with PsA compared with the general population. Patients with elevated levels of disease activity are at higher risk of developing DM.

Cardiovascular Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Nationwide Study in Spain From the RELESSER Registry.

PubMed

Fernández-Nebro, Antonio; Rúa-Figueroa, Íñigo; López-Longo, Francisco J; Galindo-Izquierdo, María; Calvo-Alén, Jaime; Olivé-Marqués, Alejandro; Ordóñez-Cañizares, Carmen; Martín-Martínez, María A; Blanco, Ricardo; Melero-González, Rafael; Ibáñez-Rúan, Jesús; Bernal-Vidal, José Antonio; Tomero-Muriel, Eva; Uriarte-Isacelaya, Esther; Horcada-Rubio, Loreto; Freire-González, Mercedes; Narváez, Javier; Boteanu, Alina L; Santos-Soler, Gregorio; Andreu, José L; Pego-Reigosa, José M

2015-07-01

This article estimates the frequency of cardiovascular (CV) events that occurred after diagnosis in a large Spanish cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and investigates the main risk factors for atherosclerosis. RELESSER is a nationwide multicenter, hospital-based registry of SLE patients. This is a cross-sectional study. Demographic and clinical variables, the presence of traditional risk factors, and CV events were collected. A CV event was defined as a myocardial infarction, angina, stroke, and/or peripheral artery disease. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the possible risk factors for atherosclerosis. From 2011 to 2012, 3658 SLE patients were enrolled. Of these, 374 (10.9%) patients suffered at least a CV event. In 269 (7.4%) patients, the CV events occurred after SLE diagnosis (86.2% women, median [interquartile range] age 54.9 years [43.2-66.1], and SLE duration of 212.0 months [120.8-289.0]). Strokes (5.7%) were the most frequent CV event, followed by ischemic heart disease (3.8%) and peripheral artery disease (2.2%). Multivariate analysis identified age (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.03 [1.02-1.04]), hypertension (1.71 [1.20-2.44]), smoking (1.48 [1.06-2.07]), diabetes (2.2 [1.32-3.74]), dyslipidemia (2.18 [1.54-3.09]), neurolupus (2.42 [1.56-3.75]), valvulopathy (2.44 [1.34-4.26]), serositis (1.54 [1.09-2.18]), antiphospholipid antibodies (1.57 [1.13-2.17]), low complement (1.81 [1.12-2.93]), and azathioprine (1.47 [1.04-2.07]) as risk factors for CV events. We have confirmed that SLE patients suffer a high prevalence of premature CV disease. Both traditional and nontraditional risk factors contribute to this higher prevalence. Although it needs to be verified with future studies, our study also shows-for the first time-an association between diabetes and CV events in SLE patients.

Piecewise multivariate modelling of sequential metabolic profiling data.

PubMed

Rantalainen, Mattias; Cloarec, Olivier; Ebbels, Timothy M D; Lundstedt, Torbjörn; Nicholson, Jeremy K; Holmes, Elaine; Trygg, Johan

2008-02-19

Modelling the time-related behaviour of biological systems is essential for understanding their dynamic responses to perturbations. In metabolic profiling studies, the sampling rate and number of sampling points are often restricted due to experimental and biological constraints. A supervised multivariate modelling approach with the objective to model the time-related variation in the data for short and sparsely sampled time-series is described. A set of piecewise Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures (OPLS) models are estimated, describing changes between successive time points. The individual OPLS models are linear, but the piecewise combination of several models accommodates modelling and prediction of changes which are non-linear with respect to the time course. We demonstrate the method on both simulated and metabolic profiling data, illustrating how time related changes are successfully modelled and predicted. The proposed method is effective for modelling and prediction of short and multivariate time series data. A key advantage of the method is model transparency, allowing easy interpretation of time-related variation in the data. The method provides a competitive complement to commonly applied multivariate methods such as OPLS and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for modelling and analysis of short time-series data.

Multivariate time series clustering on geophysical data recorded at Mt. Etna from 1996 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Salvo, Roberto; Montalto, Placido; Nunnari, Giuseppe; Neri, Marco; Puglisi, Giuseppe

2013-02-01

Time series clustering is an important task in data analysis issues in order to extract implicit, previously unknown, and potentially useful information from a large collection of data. Finding useful similar trends in multivariate time series represents a challenge in several areas including geophysics environment research. While traditional time series analysis methods deal only with univariate time series, multivariate time series analysis is a more suitable approach in the field of research where different kinds of data are available. Moreover, the conventional time series clustering techniques do not provide desired results for geophysical datasets due to the huge amount of data whose sampling rate is different according to the nature of signal. In this paper, a novel approach concerning geophysical multivariate time series clustering is proposed using dynamic time series segmentation and Self Organizing Maps techniques. This method allows finding coupling among trends of different geophysical data recorded from monitoring networks at Mt. Etna spanning from 1996 to 2003, when the transition from summit eruptions to flank eruptions occurred. This information can be used to carry out a more careful evaluation of the state of volcano and to define potential hazard assessment at Mt. Etna.

Clinical Features and Risk Factors of Skeletal-Related Events in Genitourinary Cancer Patients with Bone Metastasis: A Retrospective Analysis of Prostate Cancer, Renal Cell Carcinoma, and Urothelial Carcinoma.

PubMed

Owari, Takuya; Miyake, Makito; Nakai, Yasushi; Morizawa, Yosuke; Itami, Yoshitaka; Hori, Shunta; Anai, Satoshi; Tanaka, Nobumichi; Fujimoto, Kiyohide

2018-06-06

The objective of the present study was to report the incidence of skeletal-related events (SREs) and identify risk factors for SREs in patients with genitourinary cancer with newly diagnosed bone metastasis. This retrospective study included 180 patients with bone metastasis from prostate cancer (PCa; n = 111), renal cell carcinoma (RCC; n = 43), and urothelial carcinoma (UC; n = 26). Clinical factors at the time of diagnosis of bone metastasis were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to identify independent risk factors for SREs. During follow-up, 29 (26%) patients with PCa, 30 (70%) with RCC, and 15 (58%) with UC developed SREs. Treatment with bone-modifying agents (BMAs) before the development of SREs and within 6 months from the diagnosis of bone metastasis significantly delayed the time to first SRE as compared to nonuse of BMAs. Multivariate analysis identified type of primary cancer (PCa vs. RCC, PCa vs. UC), performance status, and bone pain as significant independent predictive risk factors for SREs. Treatment with BMAs significantly delayed the development of first SREs. The identified predictors of SREs might be useful to select patients who would benefit most from early treatment with BMAs. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Comparison of DNA aneuploidy, chromosome 1 abnormalities, MYCN amplification and CD44 expression as prognostic factors in neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Christiansen, H; Sahin, K; Berthold, F; Hero, B; Terpe, H J; Lampert, F

1995-01-01

A comparison of the prognostic impact of five molecular variables in a large series was made, including tests of their nonrandom association and multivariate analysis. Molecular data were available for 377 patients and MYCN amplification, cytogenetic chromosome 1p deletion, loss of chromosome 1p heterozygosity, DNA ploidy and CD44 expression were investigated. Their interdependence and influence on event-free survival was tested uni- and multivariately using Pearson's chi 2-test, Kaplan-Meier estimates, log rank tests and the Cox's regression model. MYCN amplification was present in 18% (58/322) of cases and predicted poorer prognosis in localised (P < 0.001), metastatic (P = 0.002) and even 4S (P = 0.040) disease. CD44 expression was found in 86% (127/148) of cases, and was a marker for favourable outcome in patients with neuroblastoma stages 1-3 (P = 0.003) and 4 (P = 0.017). Chromosome 1p deletion was cytogenetically detected in 51% (28/55), and indicated reduced event-free survival in localised neuroblastoma (P = 0.020). DNA ploidy and loss of heterozygosity on chromosome 1p were of less prognostic value. Most factors of prognostic significance were associated with each other. By multivariate analysis, MYCN was selected as the only relevant factor. Risk estimation of high discriminating power is, therefore, possible for patients with localised and metastatic neuroblastoma using stage and MYCN.

Predictors of workplace violence among ambulance personnel: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

van der Velden, Peter G; Bosmans, Mark W G; van der Meulen, Erik

2016-04-01

To examine predictors of repeated confrontations with workplace violence among ambulance personnel, the proportion of exposure to potentially traumatic events that are aggression-related and to what extent personnel was able to prevent escalations. Although previous research assessed the prevalences among this group, little is known about predictors, to what extent PTE's are WPV-related and their abilities to prevent escalations. A longitudinal study with a 6 months' time interval ( N  =   103). At T1 demographics, workplace violence and potentially traumatic events in the past year, mental health, personality, handling of rules, coping and social organizational stressors were assessed. Confrontations with aggression were also examined at T2. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that only problems with superiors independently predicted repeated verbal aggression and that only the (absence of the) ability to compromise very easily predicted repeatedly being on guard and repeatedly confronted with any form of aggression. Due to very low prevalences, we could not examine predictors of repeated confrontations with physical aggression ( N  =   5) and serious threat ( N  =   7). A large majority reported that in most workplace violence cases they could prevent further escalations. About 2% reported a potentially traumatic event in the year before T1 that was WPV related and perceived as very stressful.

Estimating and Testing the Sources of Evoked Potentials in the Brain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huizenga, Hilde M.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

The source of an event-related brain potential (ERP) is estimated from multivariate measures of ERP on the head under several mathematical and physical constraints on the parameters of the source model. Statistical aspects of estimation are discussed, and new tests are proposed. (SLD)

Accumulation risk assessment for the flooding hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Giorgio; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Rudari, Roberto

2010-05-01

One of the main consequences of the demographic and economic development and of markets and trades globalization is represented by risks cumulus. In most cases, the cumulus of risks intuitively arises from the geographic concentration of a number of vulnerable elements in a single place. For natural events, risks cumulus can be associated, in addition to intensity, also to event's extension. In this case, the magnitude can be such that large areas, that may include many regions or even large portions of different countries, are stroked by single, catastrophic, events. Among natural risks, the impact of the flooding hazard cannot be understated. To cope with, a variety of mitigation actions can be put in place: from the improvement of monitoring and alert systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection, financial and insurance plans. All of those viable options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - flood risk scenarios. It is therefore necessary to identify proper statistical methodologies, able to describe the multivariate aspects of the involved physical processes and their spatial dependence. In hydrology and meteorology, but also in finance and insurance practice, it has early been recognized that classical statistical theory distributions (e.g., the normal and gamma families) are of restricted use for modeling multivariate spatial data. Recent research efforts have been therefore directed towards developing statistical models capable of describing the forms of asymmetry manifest in data sets. This, in particular, for the quite frequent case of phenomena whose empirical outcome behaves in a non-normal fashion, but still maintains some broad similarity with the multivariate normal distribution. Fruitful approaches were recognized in the use of flexible models, which include the normal distribution as a special or limiting case (e.g., the skew-normal or skew-t distributions). The present contribution constitutes an attempt to provide a better estimation of the joint probability distribution able to describe flood events in a multi-site multi-basin fashion. This goal will be pursued through the multivariate skew-t distribution, which allows to analytically define the joint probability distribution. Performances of the skew-t distribution will be discussed with reference to the Tanaro River in Northwestern Italy. To enhance the characteristics of the correlation structure, both nested and non-nested gauging stations will be selected, with significantly different contributing areas.

Association of computed tomography-derived left ventricular size with major cardiovascular events in the general population: the Heinz Nixdorf recall study.

PubMed

Dykun, Iryna; Geisel, Marie H; Kälsch, Hagen; Lehmann, Nils; Bauer, Marcus; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Erbel, Raimund; Mahabadi, Amir A

2015-05-01

To investigate the relationship between LV size as determined by non-contrast enhanced cardiac CT with incident cardiovascular disease in the general population free of clinical cardiovascular disease. LV axial area was quantified from non-contrast CT in axial, end-diastolic images at a mid-ventricular slice in participants from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf recall study, free of cardiovascular disease (n=3926, 59±8years, 53%female). LV size index (LVI) was defined as the quotient of LV area and body surface area. Major CV events (coronary events, stroke, CV death) were assessed during follow-up. Association of LVI with events was assessed using Cox regression analysis in unadjusted and multivariable adjusted models. During 8.0±1.5years of follow-up, 219 subjects developed a major CV event. Those with events had larger LVI at baseline (2258±352 vs. 2149±276 mm2/m2, p<0.0001). In univariate analysis, increase of LVI by 1 standard deviation was associated with 40% higher risk of events (HR(95%CI):1.41(1.26-1.59), p<0.0001). Associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for CV risk factors (1.24(1.10-1.40), p=0.0007) and when further adjusting for CAC (1.21(1.07-1.37), p=0.003). There was a trend towards stronger association for subjects with low CAC-score (CAC<100:1.41(1.16-1.71), p=0.0005, CAC≥100:1.24(1.06-1.44), p=0.006) in univariate analysis which persisted after multivariable adjustment (CAC<100: 1.41(1.14-1.73), p=0.001, CAC≥100: 1.12(0.96-1.31), p=0.16). CT-derived LV size is associated with incident major CV events independent of traditional risk factors and CAC-score in a population-based cohort and may improve the prediction of hard events especially in subjects with low CAC-scores. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The intrinsic dependence structure of peak, volume, duration, and average intensity of hyetographs and hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.

2013-06-01

The information contained in hyetographs and hydrographs is often synthesized by using key properties such as the peak or maximum value Xp, volume V, duration D, and average intensity I. These variables play a fundamental role in hydrologic engineering as they are used, for instance, to define design hyetographs and hydrographs as well as to model and simulate the rainfall and streamflow processes. Given their inherent variability and the empirical evidence of the presence of a significant degree of association, such quantities have been studied as correlated random variables suitable to be modeled by multivariate joint distribution functions. The advent of copulas in geosciences simplified the inference procedures allowing for splitting the analysis of the marginal distributions and the study of the so-called dependence structure or copula. However, the attention paid to the modeling task has overlooked a more thorough study of the true nature and origin of the relationships that link Xp,V,D, and I. In this study, we apply a set of ad hoc bootstrap algorithms to investigate these aspects by analyzing the hyetographs and hydrographs extracted from 282 daily rainfall series from central eastern Europe, three 5 min rainfall series from central Italy, 80 daily streamflow series from the continental United States, and two sets of 200 simulated universal multifractal time series. Our results show that all the pairwise dependence structures between Xp,V,D, and I exhibit some key properties that can be reproduced by simple bootstrap algorithms that rely on a standard univariate resampling without resort to multivariate techniques. Therefore, the strong similarities between the observed dependence structures and the agreement between the observed and bootstrap samples suggest the existence of a numerical generating mechanism based on the superposition of the effects of sampling data at finite time steps and the process of summing realizations of independent random variables over random durations. We also show that the pairwise dependence structures are weakly dependent on the internal patterns of the hyetographs and hydrographs, meaning that the temporal evolution of the rainfall and runoff events marginally influences the mutual relationships of Xp,V,D, and I. Finally, our findings point out that subtle and often overlooked deterministic relationships between the properties of the event hyetographs and hydrographs exist. Confusing these relationships with genuine stochastic relationships can lead to an incorrect application of multivariate distributions and copulas and to misleading results.

Differential influence of distinct components of increased blood pressure on cardiovascular outcomes: from the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

PubMed

Cheng, Susan; Gupta, Deepak K; Claggett, Brian; Sharrett, A Richey; Shah, Amil M; Skali, Hicham; Takeuchi, Madoka; Ni, Hanyu; Solomon, Scott D

2013-09-01

Elevation in blood pressure (BP) increases risk for all cardiovascular events. Nevertheless, the extent to which different indices of BP elevation may be associated to varying degrees with different cardiovascular outcomes remains unclear. We studied 13340 participants (aged 54 ± 6 years, 56% women and 27% black) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare the relative contributions of systolic BP, diastolic BP, pulse pressure, and mean arterial pressure to risk for coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all-cause mortality. For each multivariable-adjusted model, the largest area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) and smallest -2 log-likelihood values were used to identify BP measures with the greatest contribution to risk prediction for each outcome. A total of 2095 coronary heart disease events, 1669 heart failure events, 771 stroke events, and 3016 deaths occurred during 18 ± 5 years of follow-up. In multivariable analyses adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the BP measures with the greatest risk contributions were the following: systolic BP for coronary heart disease (AUC=0.74); pulse pressure for heart failure (AUC=0.79); systolic BP for stroke (AUC=0.74); and pulse pressure for all-cause mortality (AUC=0.74). With few exceptions, results were similar in analyses stratified by age, sex, and race. Our data indicate that distinct BP components contribute variably to risk for different cardiovascular outcomes.

Differential Influence of Distinct Components of Increased Blood Pressure on Cardiovascular OutcomesR3

PubMed Central

Cheng, Susan; Gupta, Deepak K.; Claggett, Brian; Sharrett, A. Richey; Shah, Amil M.; Skali, Hicham; Takeuchi, Madoka; Ni, Hanyu; Solomon, Scott D.

2013-01-01

Elevation in blood pressure (BP) increases risk for all cardiovascular events. Nevertheless, the extent to which different indices of BP elevation may be associated to varying degrees with different cardiovascular outcomes remains unclear. We studied 13,340 participants (aged 54±6 years, 56% women, 27% black) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare the relative contributions of systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP), pulse pressure (PP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) to risk for coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), stroke, and all-cause mortality. For each multivariable-adjusted model, the largest area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) and smallest -2 log likelihood values were used to identify BP measures with the greatest contribution to risk prediction for each outcome. A total of 2095 CHD events, 1669 HF events, 771 stroke events, and 3016 deaths occurred during up to 18±5 years of follow up. In multivariable analyses adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the BP measures with the greatest risk contributions were: SBP for CHD (AUC=0.74); PP for HF (AUC=0.79), SBP for stroke (AUC=0.74), and PP for all-cause mortality (AUC=0.74). With few exceptions, results were similar in analyses stratified by age, sex, and race. Our data indicate that distinct BP components contribute variably to risk for different cardiovascular outcomes. PMID:23876475

Arterial stiffness and cardiovascular events: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Mitchell, Gary F; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Larson, Martin G; Pencina, Michael J; Hamburg, Naomi M; Vita, Joseph A; Levy, Daniel; Benjamin, Emelia J

2010-02-02

Various measures of arterial stiffness and wave reflection have been proposed as cardiovascular risk markers. Prior studies have not assessed relations of a comprehensive panel of stiffness measures to prognosis in the community. We used proportional hazards models to analyze first-onset major cardiovascular disease events (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, or stroke) in relation to arterial stiffness (pulse wave velocity [PWV]), wave reflection (augmentation index, carotid-brachial pressure amplification), and central pulse pressure in 2232 participants (mean age, 63 years; 58% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. During median follow-up of 7.8 (range, 0.2 to 8.9) years, 151 of 2232 participants (6.8%) experienced an event. In multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive therapy, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, smoking, and presence of diabetes mellitus, higher aortic PWV was associated with a 48% increase in cardiovascular disease risk (95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 1.91 per SD; P=0.002). After PWV was added to a standard risk factor model, integrated discrimination improvement was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.05% to 1.3%; P<0.05). In contrast, augmentation index, central pulse pressure, and pulse pressure amplification were not related to cardiovascular disease outcomes in multivariable models. Higher aortic stiffness assessed by PWV is associated with increased risk for a first cardiovascular event. Aortic PWV improves risk prediction when added to standard risk factors and may represent a valuable biomarker of cardiovascular disease risk in the community.

Multivariate analysis in thoracic research.

PubMed

Mengual-Macenlle, Noemí; Marcos, Pedro J; Golpe, Rafael; González-Rivas, Diego

2015-03-01

Multivariate analysis is based in observation and analysis of more than one statistical outcome variable at a time. In design and analysis, the technique is used to perform trade studies across multiple dimensions while taking into account the effects of all variables on the responses of interest. The development of multivariate methods emerged to analyze large databases and increasingly complex data. Since the best way to represent the knowledge of reality is the modeling, we should use multivariate statistical methods. Multivariate methods are designed to simultaneously analyze data sets, i.e., the analysis of different variables for each person or object studied. Keep in mind at all times that all variables must be treated accurately reflect the reality of the problem addressed. There are different types of multivariate analysis and each one should be employed according to the type of variables to analyze: dependent, interdependence and structural methods. In conclusion, multivariate methods are ideal for the analysis of large data sets and to find the cause and effect relationships between variables; there is a wide range of analysis types that we can use.

Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

2016-04-01

Hydrologic ensemble forecasts driven by atmospheric ensemble prediction systems need statistical postprocessing in order to account for systematic errors in terms of both mean and spread. Runoff is an inherently multivariate process with typical events lasting from hours in case of floods to weeks or even months in case of droughts. This calls for multivariate postprocessing techniques that yield well calibrated forecasts in univariate terms and ensure a realistic temporal dependence structure at the same time. To this end, the univariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS; Gneiting et al., 2005) postprocessing method is combined with two different copula approaches that ensure multivariate calibration throughout the entire forecast horizon. These approaches comprise ensemble copula coupling (ECC; Schefzik et al., 2013), which preserves the dependence structure of the raw ensemble, and a Gaussian copula approach (GCA; Pinson and Girard, 2012), which estimates the temporal correlations from training observations. Both methods are tested in a case study covering three subcatchments of the river Rhine that represent different sizes and hydrological regimes: the Upper Rhine up to the gauge Maxau, the river Moselle up to the gauge Trier, and the river Lahn up to the gauge Kalkofen. The results indicate that both ECC and GCA are suitable for modelling the temporal dependences of probabilistic hydrologic forecasts (Hemri et al., 2015). References Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld, and T. Goldman (2005), Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation, Monthly Weather Review, 133(5), 1098-1118, DOI: 10.1175/MWR2904.1. Hemri, S., D. Lisniak, and B. Klein, Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting, Water Resources Research, 51(9), 7436-7451, DOI: 10.1002/2014WR016473. Pinson, P., and R. Girard (2012), Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation, Applied Energy, 96, 12-20, DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.004. Schefzik, R., T. L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting (2013), Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling, Statistical Science, 28, 616-640, DOI: 10.1214/13-STS443.

Increased risk of SSEs in bone-only metastatic breast cancer patients treated with zoledronic acid.

PubMed

Yanae, Masashi; Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Tane, Kaori; Tanioka, Maki; Fujiwara, Kimiko; Tsubaki, Masanobu; Yamazoe, Yuzuru; Morishima, Yoshiyuki; Chiba, Yasutaka; Takao, Shintaro; Komoike, Yoshifumi; Tsurutani, Junji; Nakagawa, Kazuhiko; Nishida, Shozo

2017-09-01

Bone represents one of the most common sites to which breast cancer cells metastasize. Patients experience skeletal related adverse events (pathological fractures, spinal cord compressions, and irradiation for deteriorated pain on bone) even during treatment with zoledronic acid (ZA). Therefore, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to investigate the predictive factors for symptomatic skeletal events (SSEs) in bone-metastasized breast cancer (b-MBC) patients. We retrospectively collected data on b-MBC patients treated with ZA. Patient characteristics, including age, subtype, the presence of non-bone lesions, the presence of multiple bone metastases at the commencement of ZA therapy, duration of ZA therapy, the time interval between breast cancer diagnosis and the initiation of ZA therapy, and type of systemic therapy, presence of previous SSE were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The medical records of 183 patients were reviewed and 176 eligible patients were analyzed. The median age was 59 (range, 30-87) years. Eighty-seven patients were aged ≥60 years and 89 patients were aged < 60 years. The proportions of patients with estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive disease were 81.8%, 63.1%, and 17.6%, respectively. Fifty-three patients had bone-only MBC at the commencement of ZA therapy. SSEs were observed in 42 patients. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, bone-only MBC but not a breast cancer subtype was an independent risk factor for an SSE during ZA therapy (odds ratio: 3.878, 95% confidence interval: 1.647-9.481; p = 0.002). Bone-only MBC patients are more likely to experience an SSE even after treatment with ZA.

Psychosocial Characteristics and Social Networks of Suicidal Prisoners: Towards a Model of Suicidal Behaviour in Detention

PubMed Central

Rivlin, Adrienne; Hawton, Keith; Marzano, Lisa; Fazel, Seena

2013-01-01

Prisoners are at increased risk of suicide. Investigation of both individual and environmental risk factors may assist in developing suicide prevention policies for prisoners and other high-risk populations. We conducted a matched case-control interview study with 60 male prisoners who had made near-lethal suicide attempts in prison (cases) and 60 male prisoners who had not (controls). We compared levels of depression, hopelessness, self-esteem, impulsivity, aggression, hostility, childhood abuse, life events (including events occurring in prison), social support, and social networks in univariate and multivariate models. A range of psychosocial factors was associated with near-lethal self-harm in prisoners. Compared with controls, cases reported higher levels of depression, hopelessness, impulsivity, and aggression, and lower levels of self-esteem and social support (all p values <0.001). Adverse life events and criminal history factors were also associated with near-lethal self-harm, especially having a prior prison spell and having been bullied in prison, both of which remained significant in multivariate analyses. The findings support a model of suicidal behaviour in prisoners that incorporates imported vulnerability factors, clinical factors, and prison experiences, and underscores their interaction. Strategies to reduce self-harm and suicide in prisoners should include attention to such factors. PMID:23922671

Soluble form of receptor for advanced glycation end products and incidence of new cardiovascular events among patients with cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Reichert, Stefan; Triebert, Ulrike; Santos, Alexander Navarrete; Hofmann, Britt; Schaller, Hans-Günter; Schlitt, Axel; Schulz, Susanne

2017-11-01

Soluble RAGE (sRAGE) serum level could be a biomarker for atherosclerosis and subsequent diseases such as cardiovascular disease (CVD). Therefore, we wanted to investigate whether peripheral sRAGE level is associated with new cardiovascular events among patients with CVD using the Cox's regression analysis. In this three-year longitudinal cohort study, 1002 in-patients with angiographically proven CVD were included. In 933 patients, sRAGE levels were determined by a commercial available ELISA kit at the time of baseline examination. The combined endpoint was defined as myocardial infarction, stroke/TIA (non-fatal, fatal), and cardiovascular death. For risk analysis, sRAGE values were distributed in quartiles. For generation of adjusted hazard ratios (HR), other risk factors for CVD, such as age, gender, current smoking, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipoproteinemia, family history of CVD, severe periodontitis, serum levels for C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, were recorded. 886 patients completed the 3-year follow-up. The overall incidence of the combined endpoint was 16%. Patients with sRAGE levels >838.19 pg/ml (fourth quartile) had the highest incidence of recurrent CVD events (24.9% versus 13.1%, p < 0.0001). In multivariate Cox regression with respect to further confounders for CVD, the association between sRAGE and new CVD events was confirmed (HR = 1.616, 95% CI 1.027-2.544, p = 0.038). Elevated sRAGE serum level is associated with further adverse events in patients with CVD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Digoxin Is Associated With Increased Shock Events and Electrical Storms in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators.

PubMed

Mina, George S; Acharya, Madan; Shepherd, Taylor; Gobrial, George; Tekeste, Michael; Watti, Hussam; Bhandari, Ruchi; Saini, Aditya; Reddy, Pratap; Dominic, Paari

2018-03-01

Recently, digoxin use has been found to associate with higher mortality. Yet, potential mechanisms by which digoxin use increases mortality remain unclear. Increased arrhythmogenicity from digoxin use is one possibility. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the relation between digoxin and shock events in patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). We performed a retrospective chart review of all patients with ICDs and at least 1 device interrogation at our institution between January 1, 2012, and January 1, 2015. We aimed to cover 1 year of interrogation period. Patients with heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or both were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on digoxin use, defined as use of digoxin for any period of time during ICD interrogation period. Incidence of ICD shock events and electrical storms and hospitalizations were compared between the 2 groups. The study included 202 patients. Of those, 55 patients were on digoxin and 147 were not on digoxin. Patients on digoxin were more likely to receive ICD shocks (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.01-6.18, P = .04) and have increased risk of electrical storms ( P = .02). Moreover, total hospitalizations were higher in digoxin users ( P = .02). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that digoxin use was an independent predictor of shock events (OR = 4.07, 95% CI = 1.43-11.58, P = .009). Digoxin is associated with increased shock events and electrical storms in patients with ICDs; however, large randomized controlled studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Multivariate pattern analysis of fMRI: the early beginnings.

PubMed

Haxby, James V

2012-08-15

In 2001, we published a paper on the representation of faces and objects in ventral temporal cortex that introduced a new method for fMRI analysis, which subsequently came to be called multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). MVPA now refers to a diverse set of methods that analyze neural responses as patterns of activity that reflect the varying brain states that a cortical field or system can produce. This paper recounts the circumstances and events that led to the original study and later developments and innovations that have greatly expanded this approach to fMRI data analysis, leading to its widespread application. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Some Recent Developments on Complex Multivariate Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krishnaiah, P. R.

1976-01-01

In this paper, the author gives a review of the literature on complex multivariate distributions. Some new results on these distributions are also given. Finally, the author discusses the applications of the complex multivariate distributions in the area of the inference on multiple time series. (Author)

The Systolic Blood Pressure Difference Between Arms and Cardiovascular Disease in the Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Weinberg, Ido; Gona, Philimon; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Jaff, Michael R.; Murabito, Joanne M.

2014-01-01

Background An increased inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference is an easily determined physical examination finding. The relationship between inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference and risk of future cardiovascular disease is uncertain. We described the prevalence and risk factor correlates of inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) original and offspring cohorts and examined the association between inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Methods An increased inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference was defined as ≥10mmHg using the average of initial and repeat blood pressure measurements obtained in both arms. Participants were followed through 2010 for incident cardiovascular disease events. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to investigate the effect of inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference on incident cardiovascular disease. Results We examined 3,390 (56.3% female) participants aged 40 years and older, free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, mean age of 61.1 years, who attended a FHS examination between 1991 and 1994 (original cohort) and from 1995 to 1998 (offspring cohort). The mean absolute inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference was 4.6 mmHg (range 0 to 78). Increased inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference was present in 317 (9.4%) participants. The median follow-up time was 13.3 years, during which time 598 participants (17.6%) experienced a first cardiovascular event including 83 (26.2%) participants with inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference ≥10 mmHg. Compared to those with normal inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference, participants with an elevated inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference were older (63.0 years vs. 60.9 years), had a greater prevalence of diabetes mellitus (13.3% vs. 7.5%,), higher systolic blood pressure (136.3 mmHg vs. 129.3 mmHg), and a higher total cholesterol level (212.1 mg/dL vs. 206.5 mg/dL). Inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference was associated with a significantly increased hazard of incident cardiovascular events in the multivariable adjusted model (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.75). For each 1-standard deviation unit increase in absolute interarm systolic blood pressure difference, the hazard ratio for incident cardiovascular events was 1.07 (CI, 1.00 to 1.14) in the fully-adjusted model. There was no such association with mortality (hazard ratio 1.02, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.38). Conclusions In this community-based cohort, an inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference is common and associated with a significant increased risk for future cardiovascular events, even when the absolute difference in arm systolic blood pressure is modest. These findings support research to expand clinical use of this simple measurement. PMID:24287007

Examining job tenure and lost-time claim rates in Ontario, Canada, over a 10-year period, 1999-2008.

PubMed

Morassaei, Sara; Breslin, F Curtis; Shen, Min; Smith, Peter M

2013-03-01

We sought to examine the association between job tenure and lost-time claim rates over a 10-year period in Ontario, Canada. Data were obtained from workers' compensation records and labour force survey data from 1999 to 2008. Claim rates were calculated for gender, age, industry, occupation, year and job tenure group. A multivariate analysis and examination of effect modification were performed. Differences in injury event and source of injury were also examined by job tenure. Lost-time claim rates were significantly higher for workers with shorter job tenure, regardless of other factors. Claim rates for new workers differed by gender, age and industry, but remained relatively constant at an elevated rate over the observed time period. This study is the first to examine lost-time claim rates by job tenure over a time period during which overall claim rates generally declined. Claim rates did not show a convergence by job tenure. Findings highlight that new workers are still at elevated risk, and suggest the need for improved training, reducing exposures among new workers, promoting permanent employment, and monitoring work injury trends and risk factors.

The Influence of Comorbid Disorders on the Episodicity of Bipolar Disorder in Youth

PubMed Central

Yen, Shirley; Stout, Robert; Hower, Heather; Killam, Matthew A.; Weinstock, Lauren M.; Topor, David R.; Dickstein, Daniel P.; Hunt, Jeffrey I.; Gill, Mary Kay; Goldstein, Tina R.; Goldstein, Benjamin I.; Ryan, Neal D.; Strober, Michael; Sala, Regina; Axelson, David A.; Birmaher, Boris; Keller, Martin B.

2015-01-01

Objective Bipolar Disorder (BP) frequently co-occurs with other psychiatric disorders. We examine whether course of anxiety disorders (ANX), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), disruptive behavior disorders (DBD), and substance use disorders (SUD) influence likelihood of recovery and recurrence of depression and mania in BP youth. Method Weekly ratings of psychiatric disorder intensity were obtained from 413 participants of the Course and Outcome of BP Youth project, followed for an average of 7.75 years. Multiple-event Cox proportional hazards regression analyses examined worsening of comorbid disorders as predictors of mood episode recovery and recurrence. Results Increased severity in ANX and SUD predicted longer time to recovery and less time to next depressive episode, and less time to next manic episode. Multivariate models with ANX and SUD found that significant effects of ANX remained, but SUD only predicted longer time to depression recovery. Increased severity of ADHD and DBD predicted shorter time to recurrence for depressive and manic episodes. Conclusion There are significant time-varying relationships between the course of comorbid disorders and episodicity of depression and mania in BP youth. Worsening of comorbid conditions may present as a precursor to mood episode recurrence or warn of mood episode protraction. PMID:26475572

Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

2015-12-01

Travel time limits the ability of irrigation system operators to react to short-term irrigation demand fluctuations that result from variations in weather, including very hot periods and rainfall events, as well as the various other pressures and opportunities that farmers face. Short-term system-wide irrigation demand forecasts can assist in system operation. Here we developed a multivariate time series (ARMAX) model to forecast irrigation demands with respect to aggregated service points flows (IDCGi, ASP) and off take regulator flows (IDCGi, OTR) based across 5 command areas, which included area covered under four irrigation channels and the study area. These command area specific ARMAX models forecast 1-5 days ahead daily IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR using the real time flow data recorded at the service points and the uppermost regulators and observed meteorological data collected from automatic weather stations. The model efficiency and the predictive performance were quantified using the root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean square skill score (MSSS). During the evaluation period, NSE for IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR across 5 command areas were ranged 0.98-0.78. These models were capable of generating skillful forecasts (MSSS ⩾ 0.5 and ACC ⩾ 0.6) of IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR for all 5 lead days and IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts were better than using the long term monthly mean irrigation demand. Overall these predictive performance from the ARMAX time series models were higher than almost all the previous studies we are aware. Further, IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts have improved the operators' ability to react for near future irrigation demand fluctuations as the developed ARMAX time series models were self-adaptive to reflect the short-term changes in the irrigation demand with respect to various pressures and opportunities that farmers' face, such as changing water policy, continued development of water markets, drought and changing technology.

Survival in Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Helzner, E P.; Scarmeas, N; Cosentino, S; Tang, M X.; Schupf, N; Stern, Y

2008-01-01

Objective: To describe factors associated with survival in Alzheimer disease (AD) in a multiethnic, population-based longitudinal study. Methods: AD cases were identified in the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a longitudinal, community-based study of cognitive aging in Northern Manhattan. The sample comprised 323 participants who were initially dementia-free but developed AD during study follow-up (incident cases). Participants were followed for an average of 4.1 (up to 12.6) years. Possible factors associated with shorter lifespan were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models with attained age as the time to event (time from birth to death or last follow-up). In subanalyses, median postdiagnosis survival durations were estimated using postdiagnosis study follow-up as the timescale. Results: The mortality rate was 10.7 per 100 person-years. Mortality rates were higher among those diagnosed at older ages, and among Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic whites. The median lifespan of the entire sample was 92.2 years (95% CI: 90.3, 94.1). In a multivariable-adjusted Cox model, history of diabetes and history of hypertension were independently associated with a shorter lifespan. No differences in lifespan were seen by race/ethnicity after multivariable adjustment. The median postdiagnosis survival duration was 3.7 years among non-Hispanic whites, 4.8 years among African Americans, and 7.6 years among Hispanics. Conclusion: Factors influencing survival in Alzheimer disease include race/ethnicity and comorbid diabetes and hypertension. GLOSSARY AD = Alzheimer disease; NDI = National Death Index; WHICAP = Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project. PMID:18981370

Defining the high-risk patient for carotid endarterectomy: an analysis of the prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.

PubMed

Stoner, Michael C; Abbott, William M; Wong, Daniel R; Hua, Hong T; Lamuraglia, Glenn M; Kwolek, Chirstopher J; Watkins, Michael T; Agnihotri, Arvind K; Henderson, William G; Khuri, Shukri; Cambria, Richard P

2006-02-01

Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is the gold standard for the treatment of carotid stenosis, but carotid angioplasty and stenting has been advocated in high-risk patients. The definition of such a population has been elusive, particularly because the data are largely retrospective. Our study examined results for CEA in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (both Veterans Affairs and private sector). National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data were gathered prospectively for all patients undergoing primary isolated CEA during the interval 2000 to 2003 at 123 Veterans Affairs and 14 private sector academic medical centers. Study end points included the 30-day occurrence of any stroke, death, or cardiac event. A variety of clinical, demographic, and operative variables were assessed with multivariate models to identify risk factors associated with the composite (stroke, death, or cardiac event) end point. Adjudication of end points was by trained nurse reviewers (previously validated). A total of 13,622 CEAs were performed during the study period; 95% were on male patients, and 91% of cases were conducted within the Veterans Affairs sector. The average age was 68.6 +/- 0.1 years, and 42.1% of the population had no prior neurologic event. The composite stroke, death, or cardiac event rate was 4.0%; the stroke/death rate was 3.4%. Multivariate correlates of the composite outcome were (odds ratio, P value) as follows: deciles of age (1.13, .018), insulin-requiring diabetes (1.73, <.001), oral agent-controlled diabetes (1.39, .003), decade of pack-years smoking (1.04, >.001), history of transient ischemic attack (1.41, >.001), history of stroke (1.51, >.001), creatinine >1.5 mg/dL (1.48, >.001), hypoalbuminemia (1.49, >.001), and fourth quartile of operative time (1.44, >.001). Cardiopulmonary comorbid features did not affect the composite outcome in this model. Regional anesthesia was used in 2437 (18%) cases, with a resultant relative risk reduction for stroke (17%), death (24%), cardiac event (33%), and the composite outcome (31%; odds ratio, 0.69; P = .008). Carotid endarterectomy results across a spectrum of Veterans Affairs and private sector hospitals compare favorably to contemporary studies. These data will assist in selecting patients who are at an increased risk for adverse outcomes. Use of regional anesthetic significantly reduced perioperative complications in a risk-adjusted model, thus suggesting that it is the anesthetic of choice when CEA is performed in high-risk patients.

Time Series Model Identification by Estimating Information.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

principle, Applications of Statistics, P. R. Krishnaiah , ed., North-Holland: Amsterdam, 27-41. Anderson, T. W. (1971). The Statistical Analysis of Time Series...E. (1969). Multiple Time Series Modeling, Multivariate Analysis II, edited by P. Krishnaiah , Academic Press: New York, 389-409. Parzen, E. (1981...Newton, H. J. (1980). Multiple Time Series Modeling, II Multivariate Analysis - V, edited by P. Krishnaiah , North Holland: Amsterdam, 181-197. Shibata, R

Association between hypoglycemia and dementia in a biracial cohort of older adults with diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Yaffe, Kristine; Falvey, Cherie M; Hamilton, Nathan; Harris, Tamara B; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Strotmeyer, Elsa S; Shorr, Ronald I; Metti, Andrea; Schwartz, Ann V

2013-07-22

Hypoglycemia commonly occurs in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and may negatively influence cognitive performance. Cognitive impairment in turn can compromise DM management and lead to hypoglycemia. To prospectively evaluate the association between hypoglycemia and dementia in a biracial cohort of older adults with DM. Prospective population-based study. We studied 783 older adults with DM (mean age, 74.0 years; 47.0% of black race/ethnicity; and 47.6% female) who were participating in the prospective population-based Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study beginning in 1997 and who had baseline Modified Mini-Mental State Examination scores of 80 or higher. Dementia diagnosis was determined during the follow-up period from hospital records indicating an admission associated with dementia or the use of prescribed dementia medications. Hypoglycemic events were determined during the follow-up period by hospital records. During the 12-year follow-up period, 61 participants (7.8%) had a reported hypoglycemic event, and 148 (18.9%) developed dementia. Those who experienced a hypoglycemic event had a 2-fold increased risk for developing dementia compared with those who did not have a hypoglycemic event (34.4% vs 17.6%, P < .001; multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.0-4.4). Similarly, older adults with DM who developed dementia had a greater risk for having a subsequent hypoglycemic event compared with participants who did not develop dementia (14.2% vs 6.3%, P < .001; multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5-6.6). Further adjustment for stroke, hypertension, myocardial infarction, and cognitive change scores produced similar results. Among older adults with DM, there seems to be a bidirectional association between hypoglycemia and dementia.

Left Ventricular Structure and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Framingham Heart Study Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Study

PubMed Central

Tsao, Connie W; Gona, Philimon N; Salton, Carol J; Chuang, Michael L; Levy, Daniel; Manning, Warren J; O’Donnell, Christopher J

2015-01-01

Background Elevated left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and concentric left ventricular (LV) remodeling are related to adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The predictive utility of LV concentric remodeling and LV mass in the prediction of CVD events is not well characterized. Methods and Results Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort members without prevalent CVD (n=1715, 50% men, aged 65±9 years) underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance for LVMI and geometry (2002–2006) and were prospectively followed for incident CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, heart failure, stroke) or CVD death. Over 13 808 person-years of follow-up (median 8.4, range 0.0 to 10.5 years), 85 CVD events occurred. In multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, each 10-g/m2 increment in LVMI and each 0.1 unit in relative wall thickness was associated with 33% and 59% increased risk for CVD, respectively (P=0.004 and P=0.009, respectively). The association between LV mass/LV end-diastolic volume and incident CVD was borderline significant (P=0.053). Multivariable-adjusted risk reclassification models showed a modest improvement in CVD risk prediction with the incorporation of cardiovascular magnetic resonance LVMI and measures of LV concentricity (C-statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.78] for the model with traditional risk factors only, improved to 0.74 [95% CI 0.68 to 0.80] for the risk factor model additionally including LVMI and relative wall thickness). Conclusions Among adults free of prevalent CVD in the community, greater LVMI and LV concentric hypertrophy are associated with a marked increase in adverse incident CVD events. The potential benefit of aggressive primary prevention to modify LV mass and geometry in these adults requires further investigation. PMID:26374295

Pretransplantation Cystatin C, but not Creatinine, Predicts 30-day Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Liver Transplant Recipients With Normal Serum Creatinine Levels.

PubMed

Kwon, H-M; Moon, Y-J; Jung, K-W; Jun, I-G; Song, J-G; Hwang, G-S

2018-05-01

The connection between renal dysfunction and cardiovascular dysfunction has been consistently shown. In patients with liver cirrhosis, renal dysfunction shows a tight correlation with prognosis after liver transplantation (LT); therefore, precise renal assessment is mandatory. Cystatin C, a sensitive biomarker for assessing renal function, has shown superiority in detecting mild renal dysfunction compared to classical biomarker creatinine. In this study, we aimed to compare cystatin C and creatinine in predicting 30-day major cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in LT recipients with normal serum creatinine levels. Between May 2010 and October 2015, 1181 LT recipients (mean Model for End-stage Liver Disease score 12.1) with pretransplantation creatinine level ≤1.4 mg/dL were divided into tertiles according to each renal biomarker. The 30-day MACE was a composite of troponin I >0.2 ng/mL, arrhythmia, congestive heart failure, death, and cerebrovascular events. The highest tertile of cystatin C (≥0.95 mg/L) was associated with a higher risk for a 30-day MACE event (odds ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 2.48) and higher risk of death (hazard ratio: 1.96; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 3.67) than the lowest tertile (<0.74 mg/L) after multivariate adjustments. However, the highest tertile of creatinine level showed neither increasing MACE event rate nor worse survival rate compared with the lowest tertile (both insignificant after multivariate adjustment). Pretransplantation cystatin C is superior in risk prediction of MACE and all-cause mortality in LT recipients with normal creatinine, compared to creatinine. It would assist further risk stratification which may not be detected with creatinine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization of Severe Coronary Lesions on Secondary Branches.

PubMed

Cano-García, Macarena; Millán-Gómez, Mercedes; Sánchez-González, Carlos; Alonso-Briales, Juan H; Muñoz-Jiménez, Luz D; Carrasco-Chinchilla, Fernando; Domínguez-Franco, Antonio; Muñoz-García, Antonio J; Bullones-Ramírez, Juan A; Álvarez-Rubiera, Jesús M; de Mora-Martín, Manuel; de Teresa-Galván, Eduardo; Hernández-García, José M; Urbano-Carrillo, Cristóbal A; Jiménez-Navarro, Manuel F

2018-05-30

To analyze the percutaneous revascularization strategy for severe lesions in the secondary branches (SB) (diameter ≥ 2mm) of major epicardial arteries compared with conservative treatment. This study analyzed patients with severe SB lesions who underwent percutaneous revascularization treatment compared with patients who received pharmacological treatment. The study examined the percentage of branch-related events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction attributable to SB, or the need for revascularization of the SB). We analyzed 679 SB lesions (662 patients). After a mean follow-up of 22.2±10.5 months, there were no significant differences between the 2 treatment groups regarding the percentage of death from cardiovascular causes (1.7% vs 0.4%; P=.14), nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (1.7% vs 1.7%; P=.96), the need for SB revascularization (4.1% vs 5.4%; P=.45) or in the total percentage of events (5.1% vs 6.3%; P=.54). The variables showing an association with event occurrence on multivariate analysis were diabetes (SHR, 2.87; 95%CI, 1.37-5.47; P=.004), prior AMI (SHR, 3.54; 95%CI, 1.77-7.30; P<.0001), SB reference diameter (SHR, 0.16; 95%CI, 0.03-0.97; P=.047), and lesion length (SHR, 3.77; 95%CI, 1.03-1.13; P<.0001). These results remained the same after the propensity score analysis. The percentage of SB-related events during follow-up is low, with no significant differences between the 2 treatment strategies. The variables associated with event occurrence in the multivariate analysis were the presence of diabetes mellitus, prior AMI, and greater lesion length. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

2011-01-01

Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roezer, V.; Kreibich, H.; Schroeter, K.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Pluvial flood events, such as in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011, Beijing (China) in 2012 or Houston (USA) in 2016, have caused severe losses to urban dwellings in recent years. These floods are caused by storm events with high rainfall rates well above the design levels of urban drainage systems, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in many areas and an ongoing urbanization may increase pluvial flood losses in the future. For an efficient risk assessment and adaptation to pluvial floods, a quantification of the flood risk is needed. Few loss models have been developed particularly for pluvial floods. These models usually use simple waterlevel- or rainfall-loss functions and come with very high uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties and improve the loss estimation, we present a probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods based on empirical data. The model was developed in a two-step process using a machine learning approach and a comprehensive database comprising 783 records of direct building and content damage of private households. The data was gathered through surveys after four different pluvial flood events in Germany between 2005 and 2014. In a first step, linear and non-linear machine learning algorithms, such as tree-based and penalized regression models were used to identify the most important loss influencing factors among a set of 55 candidate variables. These variables comprise hydrological and hydraulic aspects, early warning, precaution, building characteristics and the socio-economic status of the household. In a second step, the most important loss influencing variables were used to derive a probabilistic multi-variable pluvial flood loss estimation model based on Bayesian Networks. Two different networks were tested: a score-based network learned from the data and a network based on expert knowledge. Loss predictions are made through Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. With the ability to cope with incomplete information and use expert knowledge, as well as inherently providing quantitative uncertainty information, it is shown that loss models based on BNs are superior to deterministic approaches for pluvial flood risk assessment.

Risk and protective factors for heat-related events among older adults of Southern Quebec (Canada): The NuAge study.

PubMed

Laverdière, Émélie; Payette, Hélène; Gaudreau, Pierrette; Morais, José A; Shatenstein, Bryna; Généreux, Mélissa

2016-10-20

Extreme heat is known to increase heat-related health outcomes (HRHO). Incidence and predictors of HRHO were examined among older adults living in Quebec (Canada). This prospective five-year study used data from the first follow-up of community-dwelling older adults from the NuAge cohort (2005-2006), located in three health regions of Southern Quebec. Medical, social and environmental factors, identified in Health Canada guidelines (2011), were used to develop the Older Adult Health Vulnerability Index (OAHVI). HRHO, obtained from a medico-administrative database, were defined as events occurring on a hot day (maximal temperature ≥30°C) between 2006 and 2010. Two outcomes were examined: heat-related 1) emergency department presentations (EDPs) and 2) health events (i.e., EDP, hospitalizations or deaths). Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to assess the associations between risk and protective factors, including OAHVI, and both outcomes. EDP and hospitalizations were, respectively, 2.6 (95% CI: 2.0-3.5) and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.1-2.6) times more frequent on hot days compared to normal summer days. Low household income and disability increased risk of heat-related EDP (AOR = 3.20; 95% CI: 1.16-8.81 and AOR = 2.66; 95% CI: 1.15-6.14 respectively) and health events (AOR = 2.84; 95% CI: 1.06-7.64 and AOR = 2.51; 95% CI: 1.13-5.61 respectively). High social participation was a protective factor of heat-related EDP (AOR = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.01-0.20) and health events (AOR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01-0.18). Older adults presenting ≥6 OAHVI factors out of 9 were 7-8 times more at risk of heat-related EDP (OR = 7.40; 95% CI: 1.51-36.19) and health events (OR = 7.77; 95% CI: 1.63-37.20) compared to participants having 0-1 factor. Social participation, reduced autonomy and low income were predictors of HRHO. The OAHVI, also a strong predictor, should help clinicians identify high-risk elderly patients.

Hauntings and poltergeist-like episodes as a confluence of conventional phenomena: a general hypothesis.

PubMed

Houran, J; Lange, R

1996-12-01

Hauntings and poltergeist-like episodes are argued to be products of contagious reactions to ambiguous environmental or cognitive events. In particular, evidence suggests that the subjective and objective effects reported by percipients are the function of independent, nonparanoraml etiologies whose constitutions have been previously established and described. According to this multivariate model, the labeling of ambiguous events as "abnormal" or "paranormal" initiates the reactive process which is subsequently sustained by perceptual contagion, i.e., flurries of paranormal observations due self-reinforcing attentional processes.

Applying the multivariate time-rescaling theorem to neural population models

PubMed Central

Gerhard, Felipe; Haslinger, Robert; Pipa, Gordon

2011-01-01

Statistical models of neural activity are integral to modern neuroscience. Recently, interest has grown in modeling the spiking activity of populations of simultaneously recorded neurons to study the effects of correlations and functional connectivity on neural information processing. However any statistical model must be validated by an appropriate goodness-of-fit test. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests based upon the time-rescaling theorem have proven to be useful for evaluating point-process-based statistical models of single-neuron spike trains. Here we discuss the extension of the time-rescaling theorem to the multivariate (neural population) case. We show that even in the presence of strong correlations between spike trains, models which neglect couplings between neurons can be erroneously passed by the univariate time-rescaling test. We present the multivariate version of the time-rescaling theorem, and provide a practical step-by-step procedure for applying it towards testing the sufficiency of neural population models. Using several simple analytically tractable models and also more complex simulated and real data sets, we demonstrate that important features of the population activity can only be detected using the multivariate extension of the test. PMID:21395436

Interaction between Gender and Skill on Competitive State Anxiety Using the Time-to-Event Paradigm: What Roles Do Intensity, Direction, and Frequency Dimensions Play?

PubMed Central

Hagan, John E.; Pollmann, Dietmar; Schack, Thomas

2017-01-01

Background and purpose: The functional understanding and examination of competitive anxiety responses as temporal events that unfold as time-to-competition moves closer has emerged as a topical research area within the domains of sport psychology. However, little is known from an inclusive and interaction oriented perspective. Using the multidimensional anxiety theory as a framework, the present study examined the temporal patterning of competitive anxiety, focusing on the dimensions of intensity, direction, and frequency of intrusions in athletes across gender and skill level. Methods: Elite and semi-elite table tennis athletes from the Ghanaian league (N = 90) completed a modified version of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2 (CSAI-2) with the inclusion of the directional and frequency of intrusion scales at three temporal phases (7 days, 2 days, and 1 h) prior to a competitive fixture. Results: Multivariate Analyses of Variance repeated measures with follow-up analyses revealed significant interactions for between-subjects factors on all anxiety dimensions (intensity, direction, and frequency). Notably, elite (international) female athletes were less cognitively anxious, showed more facilitative interpretation toward somatic anxiety symptoms and experienced less frequency of somatic anxiety symptoms than their male counterparts. However, both elite groups displayed appreciable level of self-confidence. For time-to-event effects, both cognitive and somatic anxiety intensity fluctuated whereas self-confidence showed a steady rise as competition neared. Somatic anxiety debilitative interpretation slightly improved 1 h before competition whereas cognitive anxiety frequencies also increased progressively during the entire preparatory phase. Conclusion: Findings suggest a more dynamic image of elite athletes’ pre-competitive anxiety responses than suggested by former studies, potentially influenced by cultural differences. The use of psychological skills interventions that require effective structure, content, and timing in a composite manner is suggested. PMID:28555116

The Impact of Adolescent Deviance on Marital Trajectories.

PubMed

Doherty, Elaine Eggleston; Green, Kerry M; Ensminger, Margaret E

2012-01-01

Marriage is a key life event that has numerous benefits. Recent research extends these benefits to include desistance from crime and drug use yet there has been little investigation regarding whether deviant behavior in adolescence impacts long-term marital patterns. Since rates of marriage are low among African Americans and rates of adolescent deviance and crime are high, we investigate the long-term relationship between the two drawing on longitudinal data from the Woodlawn cohort of urban African Americans. This article investigates whether serious adolescent delinquency and marijuana use predict marital trajectories, controlling for known correlates. Multivariate findings indicate that within this African-American population, deviance predicts the probability of marriage, stability of marriage, and timing of marriage for men yet deviance relates solely to the probability of marriage for women.

The Impact of Adolescent Deviance on Marital Trajectories

PubMed Central

Doherty, Elaine Eggleston; Green, Kerry M.; Ensminger, Margaret E.

2014-01-01

Marriage is a key life event that has numerous benefits. Recent research extends these benefits to include desistance from crime and drug use yet there has been little investigation regarding whether deviant behavior in adolescence impacts long-term marital patterns. Since rates of marriage are low among African Americans and rates of adolescent deviance and crime are high, we investigate the long-term relationship between the two drawing on longitudinal data from the Woodlawn cohort of urban African Americans. This article investigates whether serious adolescent delinquency and marijuana use predict marital trajectories, controlling for known correlates. Multivariate findings indicate that within this African-American population, deviance predicts the probability of marriage, stability of marriage, and timing of marriage for men yet deviance relates solely to the probability of marriage for women. PMID:25284919

A lower baseline glomerular filtration rate predicts high mortality and newly cerebrovascular accidents in acute ischemic stroke patients.

PubMed

Dong, Kai; Huang, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Qian; Yu, Zhipeng; Ding, Jianping; Song, Haiqing

2017-02-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is gradually recognized as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and cardio-/cerebrovascular disease. This study aimed to examine the association of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and clinical outcomes at 3 months after the onset of ischemic stroke in a hospitalized Chinese population.Totally, 972 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled into this study. Modified of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations were used to calculate eGFR and define CKD. The site and degree of the stenosis were examined. Patients were followed-up for 3 months. Endpoint events included all-cause death and newly ischemic events. The multivariate logistic model was used to determine the association between renal dysfunction and patients' outcomes.Of all patients, 130 patients (13.4%) had reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73 m), and 556 patients had a normal eGFR (≥90 mL/min/1.73 m). A total of 694 patients suffered from cerebral artery stenosis, in which 293 patients only had intracranial artery stenosis (ICAS), 110 only with extracranial carotid atherosclerotic stenosis (ECAS), and 301 with both ICAS and ECAS. The patients with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m had a higher proportion of death and newly ischemic events compared with those with a relatively normal eGFR. Multivariate analysis revealed that a baseline eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m increased the risk of mortality by 3.089-fold and newly ischemic events by 4.067-fold. In further analysis, a reduced eGFR was associated with increased rates of mortality and newly events both in ICAS patients and ECAS patients. However, only an increased risk of newly events was found as the degree of renal function deteriorated in ICAS patients (odds ratio = 8.169, 95% confidence interval = 2.445-14.127).A low baseline eGFR predicted a high mortality and newly ischemic events at 3 months in ischemic stroke patients. A low baseline eGFR was also a strong independent predictor for newly ischemic events in ICAS patients.

Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein but not cystatin C predict cardiovascular events in male patients with peripheral artery disease independently of ambulatory pulse pressure.

PubMed

Skoglund, Per H; Arpegård, Johannes; Ostergren, Jan; Svensson, Per

2014-03-01

Patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) are at high risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. We have previously shown that ambulatory pulse pressure (APP) predicts CV events in PAD patients. The biomarkers amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cystatin C are related to a worse outcome in patients with CV disease, but their predictive values have not been studied in relation to APP. Blood samples and 24-hour measurements of ambulatory blood pressure were examined in 98 men referred for PAD evaluation during 1998-2001. Patients were followed for a median of 71 months. The outcome variable was CV events defined as either CV mortality or any hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary revascularization. The predictive values of log(NT-proBNP), log(hs-CRP), and log(cystatin C) alone and together with APP were assessed by multivariable Cox regression. Area under the curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were calculated compared with a model containing other significant risk factors. During follow-up, 36 patients had at least 1 CV event. APP, log(NT-proBNP), and log(hs-CRP) all predicted CV events in univariable analysis, whereas log(cystatin C) did not. In multivariable analysis log(NT-proBNP) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-2.51) and log(hs-CRP) (HR = 1.63; 95% CI = 1.19-2.24) predicted events independently of 24-hour PP. The combination of log(NT-proBNP), log(hs-CRP), and average day PP improved risk discrimination (AUC = 0.833 vs. 0.736; P < 0.05) and NRI (37%; P < 0.01) when added to other significant risk factors. NT-proBNP and hs-CRP predict CV events independently of APP and the combination of hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and day PP improves risk discrimination in PAD patients.

Reconstructing multi-mode networks from multivariate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zhong-Ke; Yang, Yu-Xuan; Dang, Wei-Dong; Cai, Qing; Wang, Zhen; Marwan, Norbert; Boccaletti, Stefano; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-09-01

Unveiling the dynamics hidden in multivariate time series is a task of the utmost importance in a broad variety of areas in physics. We here propose a method that leads to the construction of a novel functional network, a multi-mode weighted graph combined with an empirical mode decomposition, and to the realization of multi-information fusion of multivariate time series. The method is illustrated in a couple of successful applications (a multi-phase flow and an epileptic electro-encephalogram), which demonstrate its powerfulness in revealing the dynamical behaviors underlying the transitions of different flow patterns, and enabling to differentiate brain states of seizure and non-seizure.

Multivariate time series analysis of neuroscience data: some challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Pourahmadi, Mohsen; Noorbaloochi, Siamak

2016-04-01

Neuroimaging data may be viewed as high-dimensional multivariate time series, and analyzed using techniques from regression analysis, time series analysis and spatiotemporal analysis. We discuss issues related to data quality, model specification, estimation, interpretation, dimensionality and causality. Some recent research areas addressing aspects of some recurring challenges are introduced. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Multivariate Model for the Meta-Analysis of Study Level Survival Data at Multiple Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan; Rollins, Katie; Coughlin, Patrick

2014-01-01

Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and…

Effect of sugammadex on coagulation as detected by rotational thromboelastometry in morbidly obese patients.

PubMed

Carron, Michele; Bertini, Diana; Prandini, Tancredi; Fanton, Francesca; Foletto, Mirto; Ori, Carlo; Perissinotto, Egle; Simioni, Paolo

2018-02-01

Sugammadex, which is used to reverse rocuronium-induced neuromuscular blockade, has a limited and transient effect on activated partial thromboplastin time and prothrombin time. However, no data are available on the effects of sugammadex on coagulation in morbidly obese patients, as assessed by rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM®). Sixty patients received sugammadex 2 mg/kg or 4 mg/kg to reverse moderate or deep rocuronium-induced neuromuscular blockade (N.=30/group) at the end of surgery under desflurane anesthesia. Arterial blood samples were collected before and 3 min and 30 min after sugammadex administration for ROTEM® analysis, including measurements of clotting time (CT), clot formation time, α angle, and maximum clot firmness in INTEM, EXTEM, and FIBTEM assays. Major and minor bleeding events were also monitored during the postoperative period. Sugammadex 2 and 4 mg/kg has a limited and transient (<30 min) effect on INTEM CTs of 7.7% (P=0.04) and 10.7% (P<0.0001), respectively. There were no relevant effects on other ROTEM® parameters. A multivariate analysis indicated a significant effect of total sugammadex dose (<250, 250-500, >500 mg) on the INTEM CT (P=0.002). A regression analysis showed a positive relationship between sugammadex dose and INTEM CT value at 3 min after administration (coefficient = 0.052 s; 95% CI: 0.005-0.098 s; P=0.03). No major or minor bleeding events were observed in either group during the postoperative period. Sugammadex produces a slight effect on coagulation in morbidly obese patients, without increasing the risk for postoperative bleeding.

Social Branding to Decrease Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Young Adult Smoking.

PubMed

Fallin, Amanda; Neilands, Torsten B; Jordan, Jeffrey W; Ling, Pamela M

2015-08-01

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals are more likely to smoke than the general population. This study evaluated a Social Branding intervention, CRUSH, which included an aspirational brand, social events, and targeted media to discourage smoking among LGBT young adults in Las Vegas, NV. Cross-sectional surveys (N = 2,395) were collected in Las Vegas LGBT bars at 2 time points 1 year apart. Multivariate logistic regressions examined associations between campaign exposure, message understanding, and current (past 30 days) smoking, controlling for demographics. LGBT individuals were significantly more likely to report current (past 30 day) smoking than heterosexual/straight, gender-conforming participants. Overall, 53% of respondents reported exposure to CRUSH; of those exposed, 60% liked the campaign, 60.3% reported they would attend a CRUSH event on a night when they usually went somewhere else, and 86.3% correctly identified that the campaign was about "partying fresh and smokefree." Current smoking was reported by 47% of respondents at Time 1 and 39.6% at Time 2. There were significant interactions between time and campaign exposure and campaign exposure and understanding the message. Among those who understood the CRUSH smokefree message, the highest level of campaign exposure was significantly associated with 37%-48% lower odds for current smoking. While longitudinal studies would better assess the impact of this intervention, CRUSH shows promise to reduce tobacco use among LGBT bar patrons. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Study on the correlation among adolescents' family function, negative life events stress amount and suicide ideation].

PubMed

Zhang, Dongdong; Chen, Ling; Yin, Dan; Miao, Jinping; Sun, Yehuan

2014-07-01

To explore the correlation between suicide ideation and family function & negative life events, as well as other influential factors in adolescents, thus present a theoretical base for clinicians and school staff to develop intervention for those problems. By adopting current situation random sampling method, Self-Rating Idea of Suicide Scale, Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List and Family APGAR Index were used to assess adolescents at random in a hygiene vocational school in Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province and a collage in Wuhu City, Anhui Province. 3700 questionnaires were granted, 3675 questionnaires were collected, among which 3620 were valid. Chi-square test, t-test, and univariate logistic regression were employed in univariate analysis, multivariate logistic regression was used in multivariate analysis. The detection rate of suicide ideation is 7.0%, and the top five suicide ideation characteristics were: poor academic performance (33.6%), serious family functional impairment (25.8%), lower-middle academic performance (11.7%), bad economic conditions (10.8%) and study in Grade Three (9.9%). Multiple logistic regression showed that the following three high-level stress amount in negative life events are most crucial for suicide ideation. They are "relationships" (OR = 1.135, 95% CI 1.071 - 1. 202), "academic pressure" (OR = 1.169, 95% CI 1.101 - 1.241), and "external events" (OR = 1.278, 95% CI 1.187 - 1.376). What' s more, the stress of attending higher grades (OR = 1.980, 95% CI 1.302 - 3.008), poor academic performance (OR = 7.206, 95% CI 1.745 - 9.789), moderate family functional impairment (OR = 2.562, 95% CI 1.527 - 2.892) and its serious level (OR = 8.287, 95% CI 3.154 - 6.917) are also influential factors for suicide ideation. Severe family functional impairment and high-level stress amount of negative life events produced the main factors of suicide ideation. Therefore, necessary and sufficient support should be given to adolescents by families and schools.

Routine perioperative ketorolac administration is not associated with hemorrhage in pediatric neurosurgery patients.

PubMed

Richardson, Marlin Dustin; Palmeri, Nicholas O; Williams, Sarah A; Torok, Michelle R; O'Neill, Brent R; Handler, Michael H; Hankinson, Todd C

2016-01-01

OBJECT NSAIDs are effective perioperative analgesics. Many surgeons are reluctant to use NSAIDs perioperatively because of a theoretical increase in the risk for bleeding events. The authors assessed the effect of routine perioperative ketorolac use on intracranial hemorrhage in children undergoing a wide range of neurosurgical procedures. METHODS A retrospective single-institution analysis of 1451 neurosurgical cases was performed. Data included demographics, type of surgery, and perioperative ketorolac use. Outcomes included bleeding events requiring return to the operating room, bleeding seen on postoperative imaging, and the development of renal failure or gastrointestinal tract injury. Variables associated with both the exposure and outcomes (p < 0.20) were evaluated as potential confounders for bleeding on postoperative imaging, and multivariable logistic regression was performed. Bivariable analysis was performed for bleeding events. Odds ratios and 95% CIs were estimated. RESULTS Of the 1451 patients, 955 received ketorolac. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated no significant association between clinically significant bleeding events (OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.15-3.1) or radiographic hemorrhage (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.43-1.51) and the perioperative administration of ketorolac. Treatment with a medication that creates a known bleeding risk (OR 3.11; 95% CI 1.01-9.57), surgical procedure (OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.11-4.94), and craniotomy/craniectomy (OR 2.43; 95% CI 1.19-4.94) were associated with a significantly elevated risk for radiographically identified hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS Short-term ketorolac therapy does not appear to be associated with a statistically significant increase in the risk of bleeding documented on postoperative imaging in pediatric neurosurgical patients and may be considered as part of a perioperative analgesic regimen. Although no association was found between ketorolac and clinically significant bleeding events, a larger study needs to be conducted to control for confounding factors, because of the rarity of these events.

Early life traumatic stressors and the mediating role of PTSD in incident HIV infection among US men, comparisons by sexual orientation and race/ethnicity: results from the NESARC, 2004-2005.

PubMed

Reisner, Sari L; Falb, Kathryn L; Mimiaga, Matthew J

2011-08-01

Stressful life events in childhood during critical periods of development have long-term psychological and neurobiological sequelae, which may affect risk for HIV infection across the life course. Data were from a nationally representative sample of 13,274 US men (National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, 2004-2005). Weighted multivariable logistic regression models examined (1) the association of childhood violent events before age 18 on 12-month incident HIV infection and (2) whether posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis (clinical interview) mediated the association between early life events and HIV. Overall, the 12-month HIV incidence was <1% (0.35%); 44% of new infections were among racial/ethnic minorities and 31% among men who have sex with men). One-third of the sample (33.5%) reported one or more early life stressors (physical abuse, sexual abuse, neglect, verbal violence, or witnessed violence). In a weighted multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for age, education, family's socioeconomic position, and sexual behaviors, each additional early life violent event was associated with an elevated odds of HIV infection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16 to 1.50]. Adding PTSD to this adjusted model, PTSD was highly associated with incident HIV infection (aOR = 5.75; 95% CI: 4.76 to 6.95). There was evidence that PTSD partially mediated the relationship between early life events and HIV (aOR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.28). Experiencing early life violent family stressors was associated with HIV infection among men. Early life events and HIV infection were mediated by PTSD, which has implications for understanding disparities in HIV infection. Interventions are urgently needed that address the long-term sequelae of childhood violence.

Fatty acids in the de novo lipogenesis pathway and risk of coronary heart disease: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

PubMed

Wu, Jason H Y; Lemaitre, Rozenn N; Imamura, Fumiaki; King, Irena B; Song, Xiaoling; Spiegelman, Donna; Siscovick, David S; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2011-08-01

De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is an endogenous pathway whereby carbohydrates and proteins are converted to fatty acids. DNL could affect coronary heart disease (CHD) or sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) via generation of specific fatty acids. Whether these fatty acids are prospectively associated with SCA or other CHD events is unknown. The objective was to investigate the relations of 4 fatty acids in the DNL pathway-palmitic acid (16:0), palmitoleic acid (16:1n-7), 7-hexadecenoic acid (16:1n-9), and cis-vaccenic acid (18:1n-7)-with incident CHD, including fatal CHD, nonfatal myocardial infarction (NFMI), and SCA. A community-based prospective study was conducted in 2890 men and women aged ≥65 y, who were free of known CHD at baseline and who were followed from 1992 to 2006. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and plasma phospholipid fatty acids were measured at baseline by using standardized methods. Incident CHD was ascertained prospectively and was centrally adjudicated by using medical records. Risk was assessed by using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards. During 29,835 person-years of follow-up, 631 CHD and 71 SCA events occurred. Both 18:1n-7 and 16:1n-9 were associated with a higher risk of SCA [multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) for the interquintile range: 7.63 (2.58, 22.6) for 18:1n-7 and 2.30 (1.16, 4.55) for 16:1n-9] but not of total CHD, fatal CHD, or NFMI. In secondary analyses censored to mid-follow-up (7 y) to minimize the effects of changes in concentrations over time, 16:1n-9 was also associated with a significantly higher risk of total CHD (2.11; 1.76, 2.54), including a higher risk of CHD death, NFMI, and SCA; 16:0 and 16:1n-7 were not associated with clinical CHD outcomes. Higher plasma phospholipid 18:1n-7 and 16:1n-9 concentrations were prospectively associated with an elevated risk of SCA but not of other CHD events, except in secondary analyses.

Fatty acids in the de novo lipogenesis pathway and risk of coronary heart disease: the Cardiovascular Health Study123

PubMed Central

Lemaitre, Rozenn N; Imamura, Fumiaki; King, Irena B; Song, Xiaoling; Spiegelman, Donna; Siscovick, David S; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2011-01-01

Background: De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is an endogenous pathway whereby carbohydrates and proteins are converted to fatty acids. DNL could affect coronary heart disease (CHD) or sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) via generation of specific fatty acids. Whether these fatty acids are prospectively associated with SCA or other CHD events is unknown. Objective: The objective was to investigate the relations of 4 fatty acids in the DNL pathway—palmitic acid (16:0), palmitoleic acid (16:1n−7), 7-hexadecenoic acid (16:1n−9), and cis-vaccenic acid (18:1n−7)—with incident CHD, including fatal CHD, nonfatal myocardial infarction (NFMI), and SCA. Design: A community-based prospective study was conducted in 2890 men and women aged ≥65 y, who were free of known CHD at baseline and who were followed from 1992 to 2006. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and plasma phospholipid fatty acids were measured at baseline by using standardized methods. Incident CHD was ascertained prospectively and was centrally adjudicated by using medical records. Risk was assessed by using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards. Results: During 29,835 person-years of follow-up, 631 CHD and 71 SCA events occurred. Both 18:1n−7 and 16:1n−9 were associated with a higher risk of SCA [multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) for the interquintile range: 7.63 (2.58, 22.6) for 18:1n−7 and 2.30 (1.16, 4.55) for 16:1n−9] but not of total CHD, fatal CHD, or NFMI. In secondary analyses censored to mid-follow-up (7 y) to minimize the effects of changes in concentrations over time, 16:1n−9 was also associated with a significantly higher risk of total CHD (2.11; 1.76, 2.54), including a higher risk of CHD death, NFMI, and SCA; 16:0 and 16:1n−7 were not associated with clinical CHD outcomes. Conclusion: Higher plasma phospholipid 18:1n−7 and 16:1n−9 concentrations were prospectively associated with an elevated risk of SCA but not of other CHD events, except in secondary analyses. PMID:21697077

Eicosapentaenoic acid to arachidonic acid (EPA/AA) ratio as an associated factor of high risk plaque on coronary computed tomography in patients without coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Nagahara, Yasuomi; Motoyama, Sadako; Sarai, Masayoshi; Ito, Hajime; Kawai, Hideki; Takakuwa, Yoko; Miyagi, Meiko; Shibata, Daisuke; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Naruse, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Junichi; Ozaki, Yukio

2016-07-01

Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-verified high risk plaque (HRP) characteristics including positive remodeling and low attenuation plaque have been associated with acute coronary syndromes. Several studies reported that the n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids have been associated with cardiovascular events. However, the relationship between serum eicosapentaenoic acid to arachidonic acid (EPA/AA) ratio and CCTA-verified HRP in patients without known coronary artery disease (CAD) is unclear. We aimed at investigating the relation between EPA/AA and CCTA-verified HRP in patients without known CAD. We included 193 patients undergoing CCTA without known CAD (65.5 ± 12.0 years, 55.0% male). No patient has been treated with EPA. The relation of coronary risk factors, lipid profile, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, coronary artery calcification score (CACS), number of vessel disease, plaque burden, and EPA/AA with the presence of HRP was evaluated by logistic regression analysis. Incremental value of EPA/AA to predict HRP was also analyzed by C-index, NRI, and IDI. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the time to cardiovascular event. HRP was observed in 37 (19%) patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that current smoking (OR 2.58; p=0.046), number of vessel disease (OR 1.87; p=0.031), and EPA/AA ratio (OR 0.65; p=0.0006) were independent associated factors of HRP on CCTA. Although the addition of EPA/AA to the baseline model did not significantly improve C-index, both NRI (0.60, p=0.0049) and IDI (0.054, p=0.0072) were significantly improved. Patients with HRP had significantly higher rate of events compared with patients without HRP (14% vs. 3%, Logrank p=0.0004). On multivariable Cox hazard analysis, baseline EPA/AA ratio was an independent predictor (HR 0.57, p=0.047). Low EPA/AA was an associated factor of HRP on CCTA in patients without CAD. In addition to conventional coronary risk factors and CACS, EPA/AA and CCTA might be useful for risk stratification of CAD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Difficult Ureter: Clinical and Radiographic Characteristics Associated With Upper Urinary Tract Access at the Time of Ureteroscopic Stone Treatment.

PubMed

Viers, Boyd R; Viers, Lyndsay D; Hull, Nathan C; Hanson, Theodore J; Mehta, Ramila A; Bergstralh, Eric J; Vrtiska, Terri J; Krambeck, Amy E

2015-11-01

To evaluate the association between clinicoradiographic features and need for prestenting (PS) because of inability of the ureter to accommodate the ureteroscope, or ureteral access sheath, at the time of stone treatment. From 2009 to 2013, 120 consecutive nonstented patients underwent ureteroscopic stone treatment with preoperative computerized tomography urogram. Acute stone events with obstruction or infection were excluded. Preoperative radiographic imaging underwent radiologist review. Clinicoradiographic features were characterized, and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify covariates independently associated with need for PS. Of the 154 renal units treated, 25 (16%) required PS for failed primary access. PS ureters were less likely to have a history of prior ipsilateral ureteral stent (4% vs 31%) or surgery (8% vs 36%; P <.05). Radiographically, PS ureters had a narrower ureteropelvic junction (4 mm vs 5 mm) and were more likely to have <50% ureteral opacification on computerized tomography urogram (32% vs 9%; P <.05). On multivariable analysis, prior ipsilateral ureteral stent (odds ratio [OR] = 0.11) and stone surgery (OR = 0.15) reduced the need for PS; meanwhile, <50% ureteral opacification (OR = 4.41) was independently associated with an increased risk of access failure. We report a 16% incidence of access failure requiring PS at time of ureteroscopy. Clinically, there was an 89% and 85% risk reduction in the need for PS with prior history of ipsilateral ureteral stent or surgery. Radiographically, there was a 4.4-fold increased risk of PS with <50% ureteral opacification. Accordingly, our findings may assist in counseling and operative management of the difficult ureter. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of social deprivation on coronary revascularisation treatment outcomes within the National Health Service in England and Wales.

PubMed

Matata, Bashir M; Shaw, Matthew; Grayson, Antony D; McShane, James; Lucy, John; Fisher, Michael; Jackson, Mark

2016-02-01

There is strong evidence to suggest that social deprivation is linked to health inequalities. In the UK, concerns have been raised regarding disparities in the outcomes of acute cardiac services within the National Health Service (NHS). This study explored whether differences exist in (a) elective hospital presentation time (b) indicators of severity and disease burden and (c) treatment outcomes (hospital stay and mortality) on the basis of the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) status. This study was a retrospective analysis of data from NHS databases for 13,758 patients that had undergone cardiac revascularisation interventions at the Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital between April 2007-March 2012. The data was analysed by descriptive, univariate and multivariate statistics to explore the association between the IMD quintiles (Q1-Q5) and revascularisation type, elective presentation time, hospital length of stay and mortality. Univariate analysis indicated that there were significant differences between patients from the most deprived areas (Q5) compared with patients from the least deprived areas (Q1), these included admission volumes, time before presentation to hospital and proportion of non-elective cases. After risk-adjustments, percutaneous coronary intervention patients from Q5 compared with Q1 had significantly greater length of hospital stay and risk of in-hospital major acute cardiovascular events. After multivariate adjustment for baseline risk factors, patients from Q5 were associated with significantly worse five-year survival as compared with Q1 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-1.71; p < 0.001). In conclusion, there is evidence to suggest that inequalities in cardiac revascularisation choices and outcomes in the UK may be associated with social deprivation. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Current trends and outcomes of breast reconstruction following nipple-sparing mastectomy: results from a national multicentric registry with 1006 cases over a 6-year period.

PubMed

Casella, Donato; Calabrese, Claudio; Orzalesi, Lorenzo; Gaggelli, Ilaria; Cecconi, Lorenzo; Santi, Caterina; Murgo, Roberto; Rinaldi, Stefano; Regolo, Lea; Amanti, Claudio; Roncella, Manuela; Serra, Margherita; Meneghini, Graziano; Bortolini, Massimiliano; Altomare, Vittorio; Cabula, Carlo; Catalano, Francesca; Cirilli, Alfredo; Caruso, Francesco; Lazzaretti, Maria Grazia; Meattini, Icro; Livi, Lorenzo; Cataliotti, Luigi; Bernini, Marco

2017-05-01

Reconstruction options following nipple-sparing mastectomy (NSM) are diverse and not yet investigated with level IA evidence. The analysis of surgical and oncological outcomes of NSM from the Italian National Registry shows its safety and wide acceptance both for prophylactic and therapeutic cases. A further in-depth analysis of the reconstructive approaches with their trend over time and their failures is the aim of this study. Data extraction from the National Database was performed restricting cases to the 2009-2014 period. Different reconstruction procedures were analyzed in terms of their distribution over time and with respect to specific indications. A 1-year minimum follow-up was conducted to assess reconstructive unsuccessful events. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the causes of both prosthetic and autologous failures. 913 patients, for a total of 1006 procedures, are included in the analysis. A prosthetic only reconstruction is accomplished in 92.2 % of cases, while pure autologous tissues are employed in 4.2 % and a hybrid (prosthetic plus autologous) in 3.6 %. Direct-to-implant (DTI) reaches 48.7 % of all reconstructions in the year 2014. Prophylactic NSMs have a DTI reconstruction in 35.6 % of cases and an autologous tissue flap in 12.9 % of cases. Failures are 2.7 % overall: 0 % in pure autologous flaps and 9.1 % in hybrid cases. Significant risk factors for failures are diabetes and the previous radiation therapy on the operated breast. Reconstruction following NSM is mostly prosthetic in Italy, with DTI gaining large acceptance over time. Failures are low and occurring in diabetic and irradiated patients at the multivariate analysis.

RVUs poorly correlate with measures of surgical effort and complexity

PubMed Central

Shah, Dhruvil R.; Bold, Richard J.; Yang, Anthony D.; Khatri, Vijay P.; Martinez, Steve R.; Canter, Robert J.

2014-01-01

Background The relationship between procedural relative value units (RVUs) for surgical procedures and other measures of surgeon effort are poorly characterized. We hypothesized that RVUs would poorly correlate with quantifiable metrics of surgeon effort. Methods Using the 2010 ACS-NSQIP database, we selected 11 primary CPT codes associated with high volume surgical procedures. We then identified all patients with a single reported procedural RVU who underwent non-emergent, inpatient general surgical operations. We used linear regression to correlate length of stay, operative time, overall morbidity, frequency of serious adverse events (SAEs), and mortality with RVUs. We used multivariable logistic regression using all pre-operative NSQIP variables to determine other significant predictors of our outcome measures. Results Among 14,481 patients, RVUs poorly correlated with individual length of stay (R2=0.05), operative time (R2=0.10), and mortality (R2=0.35). There was a moderate correlation between RVUs and SAEs (R2 =0.79), and RVUs and overall morbidity (R2=0.75). However, among low to mid-level RVU procedures (11 to 35) there was a poor correlation between SAEs (R2=0.15), overall morbidity (R2=0.05), and RVUs. On multivariable analysis, RVUs were significant predictors of operative time, length of stay, and SAEs (OR 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05–1.07), but RVUs were not a significant predictor of mortality (OR 1.02, 95%CI: 0.99–1.05) Conclusion For common, index general surgery procedures, the current RVU assignments poorly correlate with certain metrics of surgeon work, while moderately correlating with others. Given the increasing emphasis on measuring and tracking surgeon productivity, more objective measures of surgeon work and productivity should be developed. PMID:24953983

Model design for predicting extreme precipitation event impacts on water quality in a water supply reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, M.; Jeznach, L. C.; Park, M. H.; Tobiason, J. E.

2016-12-01

Extreme precipitation events such as tropical storms and hurricanes are by their nature rare, yet have disproportionate and adverse effects on surface water quality. In the context of drinking water reservoirs, common concerns of such events include increased erosion and sediment transport and influx of natural organic matter and nutrients. As part of an effort to model the effects of an extreme precipitation event on water quality at the reservoir intake of a major municipal water system, this study sought to estimate extreme-event watershed responses including streamflow and exports of nutrients and organic matter for use as inputs to a 2-D hydrodynamic and water quality reservoir model. Since extreme-event watershed exports are highly uncertain, we characterized and propagated predictive uncertainty using a quasi-Monte Carlo approach to generate reservoir model inputs. Three storm precipitation depths—corresponding to recurrence intervals of 5, 50, and 100 years—were converted to streamflow in each of 9 tributaries by volumetrically scaling 2 storm hydrographs from the historical record. Rating-curve models for concentratoin, calibrated using 10 years of data for each of 5 constituents, were then used to estimate the parameters of a multivariate lognormal probability model of constituent concentrations, conditional on each scenario's storm date and streamflow. A quasi-random Halton sequence (n = 100) was drawn from the conditional distribution for each event scenario, and used to generate input files to a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model. The resulting simulated concentrations at the reservoir's drinking water intake constitute a low-discrepancy sample from the estimated uncertainty space of extreme-event source water-quality. Limiting factors to the suitability of this approach include poorly constrained relationships between hydrology and constituent concentrations, a high-dimensional space from which to generate inputs, and relatively long run-time for the reservoir model. This approach proved useful in probing a water supply's resilience to extreme events, and to inform management responses, particularly in a region such as the American Northeast where climate change is expected to bring such events with higher frequency and intensity than have occurred in the past.

Multivariate statistical analysis strategy for multiple misfire detection in internal combustion engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chongqing; Li, Aihua; Zhao, Xingyang

2011-02-01

This paper proposes a multivariate statistical analysis approach to processing the instantaneous engine speed signal for the purpose of locating multiple misfire events in internal combustion engines. The state of each cylinder is described with a characteristic vector extracted from the instantaneous engine speed signal following a three-step procedure. These characteristic vectors are considered as the values of various procedure parameters of an engine cycle. Therefore, determination of occurrence of misfire events and identification of misfiring cylinders can be accomplished by a principal component analysis (PCA) based pattern recognition methodology. The proposed algorithm can be implemented easily in practice because the threshold can be defined adaptively without the information of operating conditions. Besides, the effect of torsional vibration on the engine speed waveform is interpreted as the presence of super powerful cylinder, which is also isolated by the algorithm. The misfiring cylinder and the super powerful cylinder are often adjacent in the firing sequence, thus missing detections and false alarms can be avoided effectively by checking the relationship between the cylinders.

Pre-biotic stage of life origin under non-photosynthetic conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartsev, S. I.; Mezhevikin, V. V.

2005-01-01

Spontaneous assembling of a simplest bacterial cell even if all necessary molecules are present in a solution seems to be extremely rare event and from the scientific standpoint has to be considered as impossible. Therefore, a predecessor of a living cell has to be very simple for providing its self-assembling and at the same time it should be able of progressive increase in complexity. Now phase-separated particles, first of all micelles, are put forward as possible predecessors of living cell. According to the offered working concept only phase-separated particles possessing autocatalytic properties can be considered as predecessors of living cells. The first stage of evolution of these phase-separated autocatalytic systems is the appearance of pre-biotic metabolism providing synthesis of amphiphiles for formation of capsules of these systems. This synthesis is maintained by the energy of a base reaction being a component of a planet-chemical cycle. Catalytic system providing functioning of pre-biotic metabolism is based on multivariate oligomeric autocatalyst, which reproduces itself from monomers, penetrating the particles from the outside. Since the autocatalyst realizes random polymerization then a collection of other oligomers possessing different catalytic functions is produced. In the paper the functioning of multivariate oligomeric autocatalyst in flow reactor is analyzed. c2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Reverse dipper and high night-time heart rate in acute stage of cerebral infarction are associated with increased mortality.

PubMed

Park, Jae-Hyeong; Lee, Hyun-Seok; Kim, Jun Hyung; Lee, Jae-Hwan; Kim, Jei; Choi, Si Wan

2014-01-01

Reverse dipper, blood pressure (BP) rises during night-time, is a risk factor of increased cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients. However, we have little information whether reverse dipper in acute stage of cerebral infarction (CI) affects on the recurrence and mortality. We studied to assess the relationship between reverse dipper and adverse clinical outcomes in the acute stage of CI. We screened and enrolled consecutive patients with acute CI with ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) within 2 weeks after admission from August 2001 to July 2005. According to systolic blood pressure (SBP) dropping pattern during night-time compared with daytime, we classified into extreme dipper (≥20%), dipper (≥10%, <20%), nondipper (≥0%, <10%), and reverse dipper (BP rises during night-time). We analyzed 426 patients (72 ± 13 years old, 255 men) and checked recurrence of CI or all-cause mortality for further 7.6 ± 3.1 years for checking of recurrence or all-cause mortality. Of 426 patients, 202 patients were nondippers (47%), 134 were reverse dippers (32%), 80 were dippers (19%), and 10 were extreme dippers (2%). During the follow-up period, 89 patients (21%) had recurrence of CI. After multivariate analysis, daytime SBP (hazard ratio = 1.014, P = .018) was the significant predictor of recurrence. There were 141 deaths (33%) in our study cohort. Multivariate analysis showed that age (hazard ratio = 1.106, P < .001), nocturnal mean heart rate (hazard ratio = 1.023, P = .004), and reverse dipper (hazard ratio = 1. 676, P = .007) were statistically significant. Reverse dipper and high night-time heart rate in the acute stage of CI were associated with total mortality during long-term follow-up. These findings suggest the clinical utility of ABPM in acute stage of CI. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric estimation of the multivariate survivor function: the multivariate Kaplan-Meier estimator.

PubMed

Prentice, Ross L; Zhao, Shanshan

2018-01-01

The Dabrowska (Ann Stat 16:1475-1489, 1988) product integral representation of the multivariate survivor function is extended, leading to a nonparametric survivor function estimator for an arbitrary number of failure time variates that has a simple recursive formula for its calculation. Empirical process methods are used to sketch proofs for this estimator's strong consistency and weak convergence properties. Summary measures of pairwise and higher-order dependencies are also defined and nonparametrically estimated. Simulation evaluation is given for the special case of three failure time variates.

Race/Ethnic Differences in the Associations of the Framingham Risk Factors with Carotid IMT and Cardiovascular Events

PubMed Central

Hoefer, Imo E.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Anderson, Todd J.; Britton, Annie R.; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W.; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Hedblad, Bo; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; de Kleijn, Dominique P. V.; Lonn, Eva M.; Lorenz, Matthias W.; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O’Leary, Daniel H.; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Peters, Sanne A. E.; Polak, Joseph F.; Price, Jacqueline F.; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M.; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T.; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Bots, Michiel L.; den Ruijter, Hester M.

2015-01-01

Background Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. Methods We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity. Results Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites. Conclusion The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention. PMID:26134404

Race/Ethnic Differences in the Associations of the Framingham Risk Factors with Carotid IMT and Cardiovascular Events.

PubMed

Gijsberts, Crystel M; Groenewegen, Karlijn A; Hoefer, Imo E; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Anderson, Todd J; Britton, Annie R; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hedblad, Bo; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; de Kleijn, Dominique P V; Lonn, Eva M; Lorenz, Matthias W; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O'Leary, Daniel H; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Peters, Sanne A E; Polak, Joseph F; Price, Jacqueline F; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Bots, Michiel L; den Ruijter, Hester M

2015-01-01

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity. Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites. The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.

Predictive coding of visual object position ahead of moving objects revealed by time-resolved EEG decoding.

PubMed

Hogendoorn, Hinze; Burkitt, Anthony N

2018-05-01

Due to the delays inherent in neuronal transmission, our awareness of sensory events necessarily lags behind the occurrence of those events in the world. If the visual system did not compensate for these delays, we would consistently mislocalize moving objects behind their actual position. Anticipatory mechanisms that might compensate for these delays have been reported in animals, and such mechanisms have also been hypothesized to underlie perceptual effects in humans such as the Flash-Lag Effect. However, to date no direct physiological evidence for anticipatory mechanisms has been found in humans. Here, we apply multivariate pattern classification to time-resolved EEG data to investigate anticipatory coding of object position in humans. By comparing the time-course of neural position representation for objects in both random and predictable apparent motion, we isolated anticipatory mechanisms that could compensate for neural delays when motion trajectories were predictable. As well as revealing an early neural position representation (lag 80-90 ms) that was unaffected by the predictability of the object's trajectory, we demonstrate a second neural position representation at 140-150 ms that was distinct from the first, and that was pre-activated ahead of the moving object when it moved on a predictable trajectory. The latency advantage for predictable motion was approximately 16 ± 2 ms. To our knowledge, this provides the first direct experimental neurophysiological evidence of anticipatory coding in human vision, revealing the time-course of predictive mechanisms without using a spatial proxy for time. The results are numerically consistent with earlier animal work, and suggest that current models of spatial predictive coding in visual cortex can be effectively extended into the temporal domain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Major Depression and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Following Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Cnossen, Maryse C; Scholten, Annemieke C; Lingsma, Hester F; Synnot, Anneliese; Haagsma, Juanita; Steyerberg, Prof Ewout W; Polinder, Suzanne

2017-01-01

Although major depressive disorder (MDD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are prevalent after traumatic brain injury (TBI), little is known about which patients are at risk for developing them. The authors systematically reviewed the literature on predictors and multivariable models for MDD and PTSD after TBI. The authors included 26 observational studies. MDD was associated with female gender, preinjury depression, postinjury unemployment, and lower brain volume, whereas PTSD was related to shorter posttraumatic amnesia, memory of the traumatic event, and early posttraumatic symptoms. Risk of bias ratings for most studies were acceptable, although studies that developed a multivariable model suffered from methodological shortcomings.

Pain, pain intensity and pain disability in high school students are differently associated with physical activity, screening hours and sleep.

PubMed

Silva, Anabela G; Sa-Couto, Pedro; Queirós, Alexandra; Neto, Maritza; Rocha, Nelson P

2017-05-16

Studies exploring the association between physical activity, screen time and sleep and pain usually focus on a limited number of painful body sites. Nevertheless, pain at different body sites is likely to be of different nature. Therefore, this study aims to explore and compare the association between time spent in self-reported physical activity, in screen based activities and sleeping and i) pain presence in the last 7-days for 9 different body sites; ii) pain intensity at 9 different body sites and iii) global disability. Nine hundred sixty nine students completed a questionnaire on pain, time spent in moderate and vigorous physical activity, screen based time watching TV/DVD, playing, using mobile phones and computers and sleeping hours. Univariate and multivariate associations between pain presence, pain intensity and disability and physical activity, screen based time and sleeping hours were investigated. Pain presence: sleeping remained in the multivariable model for the neck, mid back, wrists, knees and ankles/feet (OR 1.17 to 2.11); moderate physical activity remained in the multivariate model for the neck, shoulders, wrists, hips and ankles/feet (OR 1.06 to 1.08); vigorous physical activity remained in the multivariate model for mid back, knees and ankles/feet (OR 1.05 to 1.09) and screen time remained in the multivariate model for the low back (OR = 2.34. Pain intensity: screen time and moderate physical activity remained in the multivariable model for pain intensity at the neck, mid back, low back, shoulder, knees and ankles/feet (Rp 2 0.02 to 0.04) and at the wrists (Rp 2  = 0.04), respectively. Disability showed no association with sleeping, screen time or physical activity. This study suggests both similarities and differences in the patterns of association between time spent in physical activity, sleeping and in screen based activities and pain presence at 8 different body sites. In addition, they also suggest that the factors associated with the presence of pain, pain intensity and pain associated disability are different.

Improved neutron-gamma discrimination for a 3He neutron detector using subspace learning methods

DOE PAGES

Wang, C. L.; Funk, L. L.; Riedel, R. A.; ...

2017-02-10

3He gas based neutron linear-position-sensitive detectors (LPSDs) have been applied for many neutron scattering instruments. Traditional Pulse-Height Analysis (PHA) for Neutron-Gamma Discrimination (NGD) resulted in the neutron-gamma efficiency ratio on the orders of 10 5-10 6. The NGD ratios of 3He detectors need to be improved for even better scientific results from neutron scattering. Digital Signal Processing (DSP) analyses of waveforms were proposed for obtaining better NGD ratios, based on features extracted from rise-time, pulse amplitude, charge integration, a simplified Wiener filter, and the cross-correlation between individual and template waveforms of neutron and gamma events. Fisher linear discriminant analysis (FLDA)more » and three multivariate analyses (MVAs) of the features were performed. The NGD ratios are improved by about 10 2-10 3 times compared with the traditional PHA method. Finally, our results indicate the NGD capabilities of 3He tube detectors can be significantly improved with subspace-learning based methods, which may result in a reduced data-collection time and better data quality for further data reduction.« less

Using ecological momentary assessment to examine antecedents and correlates of physical activity bouts in adults age 50+ years: a pilot study.

PubMed

Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Atienza, Audie A; Castro, Cynthia M; King, Abby C

2009-12-01

National recommendations supporting the promotion of multiple short (10+ minute) physical activity bouts each day to increase overall physical activity levels in middle-aged and older adults underscore the need to identify antecedents and correlates of such daily physical activity episodes. This pilot study used Ecological Momentary Assessment to examine the time-lagged and concurrent effects of empirically supported social, cognitive, affective, and physiological factors on physical activity among adults age 50+ years. Participants (N = 23) responded to diary prompts on a handheld computer four times per day across a 2-week period. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), self-efficacy, positive and negative affect, control, demand, fatigue, energy, social interactions, and stressful events were assessed during each sequence. Multivariate results showed that greater self-efficacy and control predicted greater MVPA at each subsequent assessment throughout the day (p < 0.05). Also, having a positive social interaction was concurrently related to higher levels of MVPA (p = 0.052). Time-varying multidimensional individual processes predict within daily physical activity levels.

An Individualized Risk Calculator for Research in Prodromal Psychosis

PubMed Central

Cannon, Tyrone D.; Yu, Changhong; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E.; Cadenhead, Kristin S.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Heinssen, Robert; Jeffries, Clark D.; Mathalon, Daniel H.; McGlashan, Thomas H.; Perkins, Diana O.; Seidman, Larry J.; Tsuang, Ming T.; Walker, Elaine F.; Woods, Scott W.; Kattan, Michael

2016-01-01

Objective About 20–35% of individuals aged 12–30 years who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome convert to psychosis within two years. However, this estimate ignores the fact that clinical high-risk (CHR) cases vary considerably in risk. Here we sought to create a risk calculator that can ascertain the probability of conversion to psychosis in individual patients based on profiles of risk indicators. The high risk category predicted by this calculator can inform research criteria going forward. Method Subjects were 596 CHR participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) who were followed up to the time of conversion to psychosis or last contact (up to 2 years). Our scope was limited to predictors supported by prior studies and readily obtainable in general clinical settings. Time-to-event regression was used to build a multivariate model predicting conversion, with internal validation using 1000 bootstrap resamples. Results The 2-year probability of conversion to psychosis in this sample was 16%. Higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning and memory performance, slower speed of processing, and younger age at baseline each contributed to individual risk for psychosis, while stressful life events, traumas, and family history of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The multivariate model achieved a Concordance index of 0.71, and was validated in an independent external dataset. The results are instantiated in a web-based risk prediction tool envisioned to be most useful in research protocols involving the psychosis prodrome. Conclusions A risk calculator comparable in accuracy to those for cardiovascular disease and cancer is available to predict individualized conversion risks in newly ascertained CHR cases. Given that the risk calculator can only be validly applied for patients who screen positive on the Structured Clinical Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes, which requires training to administer, it's most immediate uses will be in research on psychosis risk factors and in research driven clinical (prevention) trials. PMID:27363508

An Individualized Risk Calculator for Research in Prodromal Psychosis.

PubMed

Cannon, Tyrone D; Yu, Changhong; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cornblatt, Barbara A; Heinssen, Robert; Jeffries, Clark D; Mathalon, Daniel H; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry J; Tsuang, Ming T; Walker, Elaine F; Woods, Scott W; Kattan, Michael W

2016-10-01

Approximately 20%-35% of individuals 12-35 years old who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome convert to psychosis within 2 years. However, this estimate ignores the fact that clinical high-risk cases vary considerably in risk. The authors sought to create a risk calculator, based on profiles of risk indicators, that can ascertain the probability of conversion to psychosis in individual patients. The study subjects were 596 clinical high-risk participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study who were followed up to the time of conversion to psychosis or last contact (up to 2 years). The predictors examined were limited to those that are supported by previous studies and are readily obtainable in general clinical settings. Time-to-event regression was used to build a multivariate model predicting conversion, with internal validation using 1,000 bootstrap resamples. The 2-year probability of conversion to psychosis was 16%. Higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning and memory performance, slower speed of processing, and younger age at baseline each contributed to individual risk for psychosis. Stressful life events, trauma, and family history of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The multivariate model achieved a concordance index of 0.71 and, as reported in an article by Carrión et al., published concurrently with this one, was validated in an independent external data set. The results are instantiated in a web-based risk prediction tool envisioned to be most useful in research protocols involving the psychosis prodrome. A risk calculator comparable in accuracy to those for cardiovascular disease and cancer is available to predict individualized conversion risks in newly ascertained clinical high-risk cases. Given that the risk calculator can be validly applied only for patients who screen positive on the Structured Clinical Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes, which requires training to administer, its most immediate uses will be in research on psychosis risk factors and in research-driven clinical (prevention) trials.

Magnitude of virologic blips is associated with a higher risk for virologic rebound in HIV-infected individuals: a recurrent events analysis.

PubMed

Grennan, J Troy; Loutfy, Mona R; Su, DeSheng; Harrigan, P Richard; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio S G; Rourke, Sean; Tsoukas, Christos; Hogg, Bob; Raboud, Janet

2012-04-15

The importance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) blip magnitude on virologic rebound has been raised in clinical guidelines relating to viral load assays. Antiretroviral-naive individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) after 1 January 2000 and achieving virologic suppression were studied. Negative binomial models were used to identify blip correlates. Recurrent event models were used to determine the association between blips and rebound by incorporating multiple periods of virologic suppression per individual. 3550 participants (82% male; median age, 40 years) were included. In a multivariable negative binomial regression model, the Amplicor assay was associated with a lower blip rate than branched DNA (rate ratio, 0.69; P < .01), controlling for age, sex, region, baseline HIV-1 RNA and CD4 count, AIDS-defining illnesses, year of cART initiation, cART type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency. In a multivariable recurrent event model controlling for age, sex, intravenous drug use, cART start year, cART type, assay type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency, blips of 500-999 copies/mL were associated with virologic rebound (hazard ratio, 2.70; P = .002), whereas blips of 50-499 were not. HIV-1 RNA assay was an important determinant of blip rates and should be considered in clinical guidelines. Blips ≥500 copies/mL were associated with increased rebound risk.

Retrospective analysis for treatment of naïve canine multicentric lymphoma with a 15-week, maintenance-free CHOP protocol.

PubMed

Curran, K; Thamm, D H

2016-08-01

Standard of care treatment of dogs with multicentric lymphoma includes combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (CHOP); however, owners may be hesitant to commit the resources necessary to complete a lengthy, multi-drug protocol. One hundred thirty-four client-owned dogs with multicentric lymphoma were treated with a 15-week CHOP chemotherapy protocol. The overall response rate was 98% with 104 dogs experiencing a complete response (CR). The median progression-free survival (PFS) time for all dogs was 176 days, and the median disease-specific overall survival time was 311 days. Prognostic factors identified on multivariate analysis as significant for PFS included substage, immunophenotype, hospitalization for adverse events, need for dose reduction, presence of neutrophilia at diagnosis, presence of anemia and experiencing a CR as best response to therapy. In conclusion, this protocol may be a viable alternative to CHOP protocols using a larger number of treatments. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extensions to Multivariate Space Time Mixture Modeling of Small Area Cancer Data.

PubMed

Carroll, Rachel; Lawson, Andrew B; Faes, Christel; Kirby, Russell S; Aregay, Mehreteab; Watjou, Kevin

2017-05-09

Oral cavity and pharynx cancer, even when considered together, is a fairly rare disease. Implementation of multivariate modeling with lung and bronchus cancer, as well as melanoma cancer of the skin, could lead to better inference for oral cavity and pharynx cancer. The multivariate structure of these models is accomplished via the use of shared random effects, as well as other multivariate prior distributions. The results in this paper indicate that care should be taken when executing these types of models, and that multivariate mixture models may not always be the ideal option, depending on the data of interest.

The Sensitivity of Adverse Event Cost Estimates to Diagnostic Coding Error

PubMed Central

Wardle, Gavin; Wodchis, Walter P; Laporte, Audrey; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Baker, Ross G

2012-01-01

Objective To examine the impact of diagnostic coding error on estimates of hospital costs attributable to adverse events. Data Sources Original and reabstracted medical records of 9,670 complex medical and surgical admissions at 11 hospital corporations in Ontario from 2002 to 2004. Patient specific costs, not including physician payments, were retrieved from the Ontario Case Costing Initiative database. Study Design Adverse events were identified among the original and reabstracted records using ICD10-CA (Canadian adaptation of ICD10) codes flagged as postadmission complications. Propensity score matching and multivariate regression analysis were used to estimate the cost of the adverse events and to determine the sensitivity of cost estimates to diagnostic coding error. Principal Findings Estimates of the cost of the adverse events ranged from $16,008 (metabolic derangement) to $30,176 (upper gastrointestinal bleeding). Coding errors caused the total cost attributable to the adverse events to be underestimated by 16 percent. The impact of coding error on adverse event cost estimates was highly variable at the organizational level. Conclusions Estimates of adverse event costs are highly sensitive to coding error. Adverse event costs may be significantly underestimated if the likelihood of error is ignored. PMID:22091908

A Hybrid Index for Characterizing Drought Based on a Nonparametric Kernel Estimator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong

This study develops a nonparametric multivariate drought index, namely, the Nonparametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (NMSDI), by considering the variations of both precipitation and streamflow. Building upon previous efforts in constructing Nonparametric Multivariate Drought Index, we use the nonparametric kernel estimator to derive the joint distribution of precipitation and streamflow, thus providing additional insights in drought index development. The proposed NMSDI are applied in the Wei River Basin (WRB), based on which the drought evolution characteristics are investigated. Results indicate: (1) generally, NMSDI captures the drought onset similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and drought termination and persistence similar tomore » Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI). The drought events identified by NMSDI match well with historical drought records in the WRB. The performances are also consistent with that by an existing Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) at various timescales, confirming the validity of the newly constructed NMSDI in drought detections (2) An increasing risk of drought has been detected for the past decades, and will be persistent to a certain extent in future in most areas of the WRB; (3) the identified change points of annual NMSDI are mainly concentrated in the early 1970s and middle 1990s, coincident with extensive water use and soil reservation practices. This study highlights the nonparametric multivariable drought index, which can be used for drought detections and predictions efficiently and comprehensively.« less

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

Rotation in the Dynamic Factor Modeling of Multivariate Stationary Time Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

2001-01-01

Proposes a special rotation procedure for the exploratory dynamic factor model for stationary multivariate time series. The rotation procedure applies separately to each univariate component series of a q-variate latent factor series and transforms such a component, initially represented as white noise, into a univariate moving-average.…

Association of aortic wall thickness on contrast-enhanced chest CT with major cerebro-cardiac events.

PubMed

Tresoldi, Silvia; Di Leo, Giovanni; Zoffoli, Elena; Munari, Alice; Primolevo, Alessandra; Cornalba, Gianpaolo; Sardanelli, Francesco

2014-11-01

There is a significant association between aortic atherosclerosis and previous major cardiovascular events. Particularly, thoracic aortic atherosclerosis is closely related to the degree of coronary and carotid artery disease. Thus, there is a rationale for screening the thoracic aorta in patients who undergo a chest computed tomography (CT) for any clinical question, in order to detect patients at increased risk of cerebro-cardiovascular (CCV) events. To estimate the association between either thoracic aortic wall thickness (AWT) or aortic total calcium score (ATCS) and CCV events. One hundred and forty-eight non-cardiac patients (78 men; 67 ± 12 years) underwent chest contrast-enhanced multidetector CT (MDCT). The AWT was measured at the level of the left atrium (AWTref) and at the maximum AWT (AWTmax). Correlation with clinical CCV patients' history was estimated. The value of AWTmax and of a semi-quantitative ATCS as a marker for CCV events was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis and multivariate regression analysis. Out of 148 patients, 59% reported sedentary lifestyle, 44% hypertension, 32% smoking, 23% hypercholesterolemia, 13% family history of cardiac disease, 12% diabetes, and 10% BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2); 9% reported myocardial infarction, 8% aortic aneurism, 8% myocardial revascularization, and 2% ischemic stroke. Twenty-six percent of patients had a medium-to-high ATCS. Both AWTmax and AWTref correlated with hypertension and age (P < 0.002). At the ROC analysis, a 4.8 mm threshold was associated to a 90% specificity and an odds ratio of 6.3 (AUC = 0.735). Assuming as threshold the AWTmax median value (4.3 mm) of patients who suffered from at least one CCV event in their history, a negative predictive value of 90%, a RR of 3.6 and an OR of 6.3 were found. At the multivariate regression analysis, AWTmax was the only independent variable associated to the frequency of CCV events. Patients with increased thoracic AWTmax on chest MDCT could be considered at risk for CCV disease. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Characteristics of low-speed vehicle run-over events in children: an 11-year review.

PubMed

Griffin, Bronwyn R; Watt, Kerrianne; Shields, Linda E; Kimble, Roy M

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics associated with fatal and non-fatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) events in relation to person, incident and injury characteristics, in order to identify appropriate points for intervention and injury prevention. Data on all known LSVRO events in Queensland, Australia, over 11 calendar years (1999-2009) were extracted from five different databases representing the continuum of care (prehospital to fatality) and manually linked. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were used to analyse the sample characteristics in relation to demographics, health service usage, outcomes, incident characteristics, and injury characteristics. Of the 1641 LSVRO incidents, 98.4% (n=1615) were non-fatal, and 1.6% were fatal (n=26). Over half the children required admission to hospital (56%, n=921); mean length of stay was 3.4 days. Younger children aged 0-4 years were more frequently injured, and experienced more serious injuries with worse outcomes. Patterns of injury (injury type and severity), injury characteristics (eg, time of injury, vehicle type, driver of vehicle, incident location), and demographic characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, indigenous status, remoteness), varied according to age group. Almost half (45.6%; n=737) the events occurred outside major cities, and approximately 10% of events involved indigenous children. Parents were most commonly the vehicle drivers in fatal incidents. While larger vehicles such as four-wheel drives (4WD) were most frequently involved in LSVRO events resulting in fatalities, cars were most frequently involved in non-fatal events. This is the first study, to the authors' knowledge, to analyse the characteristics of fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events in children aged 0-15 years on a state-wide basis. Characteristics of LSVRO events varied with age, thus age-specific interventions are required. Children living outside major cities, and indigenous children, were over-represented in these data. Further research is required to identify the burden of injury in these groups. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Revisiting the Link Between Economic Distress, Race, and Domestic Violence.

PubMed

Leguizamon, J Sebastian; Leguizamon, Susane; Howden, Wesley

2017-06-01

Male unemployment may decrease the incidence of domestic violence, due to loss of economic power in the relationship, or increase the incidence of domestic violence, due to emotional outbursts fueled by increased stress. We hypothesize that Black men may face a greater loss of expected future earnings after an unemployment shock due to a more unfavorable labor market relative to White men. Consequently, we would expect that Black men would, on net, exhibit a greater reduction (or a smaller increase) in incidences of domestic violence following an employment shock. This study uses mass layoff events reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at the county level ( N = 3,377) for the years 2003-2008. Mass layoff events occur when a firm lays off at least 50 workers and are uncorrelated with individual-level characteristics ( N = 28,939 events, affecting N = 5,337,481 individuals). Domestic violence data are taken from the National Archive of Criminal Justice and defined as occurring when an accused perpetrator is charged, but not necessarily convicted. We use a multivariate regression model to estimate how differences in the change in reported incidences of domestic violence by race correlate with changes in mass layoffs by race. We control for the poverty rate, real per capita income, percent Black, percent women, and percent of females laid off. The standard errors are clustered at the county level and include county and time dummies to account for regional and time specific trends. We observe that an increase in the number of Blacks subject to a mass layoff event do exert a negative associated influence on domestic violence while layoffs of White men exert a positive influence. Our results shed light on how the influence of economic uncertainty on incidences of domestic violence has been found to be positive in some previous research but negative in other research.

[Sex-specific associations between tobacco smoking and risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults].

PubMed

Shen, Q; Zhu, N B; Yu, C Q; Guo, Y; Bian, Z; Tan, Y L; Pei, P; Chen, J S; Chen, Z M; Lyu, J; Li, L M

2018-01-10

Objective: To examine the sex-specific associations between tobacco smoking and risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults. Methods: The present analysis included 487 373 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank after excluding those with cancer, heart diseases, stroke at baseline survey. The baseline survey was conducted from June 2004 to July 2008. The number of follow-up years was calculated from the time that the participants completed baseline survey to the time of any event: CVD incidence, death, loss of follow-up, or December 31, 2015, whichever occurred first. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the HR s and 95% CI of incident cardiovascular diseases with tobacco smoking. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.9 years(a total of 4.1 million person years), we documented 33 947 cases of ischemic heart diseases, 6 048 cases of major coronary diseases, 7 794 cases of intracerebral hemorrhage, and 31 722 cases of cerebral infarction. The prevalence of smoking was much higher in men (67.9%) than in women (2.7%). Smoking increased risk of all subtypes of cardiovascular diseases. Compared with nonsmokers, the multivariable-adjusted HR s (95% CI ) for current smokers were 1.54 (1.43-1.66) for major coronary event, 1.28 (1.24-1.32) for ischemic heart disease, 1.18 (1.14-1.22) for cerebral infarction, and 1.07 (1.00-1.15) for intracerebral hemorrhage, respectively. Female smokers tended to have greater risk of developing major coronary event associated with amount of tobacco smoked daily (interaction P =0.006) and age when smoking started (interaction P =0.011). There was no sex difference in these two effects for ischemic heart diseases, intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction (all interaction P >0.05). Conclusions: This prospective study confirmed increased risk of all subtypes of cardiovascular diseases in current smokers. Smoking was more harmful to women than to men for major coronary event.

Dysoxia in the Gulf of Alaska evinced by benthic foraminiferal assemblages and redox-sensitive trace elements during deglacial and glacial intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharon, S.; Belanger, C. L.; Du, J.; Mix, A. C.; Asahi, H.

2016-12-01

During the last ice age, millennial-scale episodes of expanded low-oxygen conditions occurred around the margins of the North Pacific, however the drivers of these events are not well understood. Differences in the timing of dysoxic events in the shallow and deep Pacific have been proposed, which imply changes in ocean circulation may play a role. Here we combine faunal and geochemical analyses to investigate the timing and severity of low-oxygen events in the North Pacific at a slope (682 m) and a deeper-water (3680 m) site from a transect cored by IODP Expedition 341 in the Gulf of Alaska. At the slope site, multivariate faunal analyses based on the relative abundances of benthic foraminiferal species reveal a distinct fauna characterized by high abundances of taxa associated with dysoxic to suboxic conditions including Buliminella tenuata, Bolivia pacifica, and Epistominella pacifica. These assemblages occur during the most recent deglacial ( 12,000 kyr) and during MIS 3 from 45,000-55,000 years ago. These fossil assemblages have no faunal analog within the modern Gulf of Alaska, although they are most similar to faunas from the modern oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Thus, these faunas may represent a more intense OMZ. Sedimentary trace element analyses show enrichment in Re, Mo, and U where these faunas are found, supporting them as low-oxygen indicators. Similarly, a distinct fauna occurs at the deeper site, which has high relative abundances of Nonionella sp., Stainforthia fusiformis, and small-bodied taxa common in suboxic settings with high phytodetritus. Ongoing age-model improvements and increased sampling resolution will allow us to better test whether faunal changes are offset at the two sites and assess the abruptness of the onset of extreme low-oxygen events in the North Pacific.

Multivariate Genetic Correlates of the Auditory Paired Stimuli-Based P2 Event-Related Potential in the Psychosis Dimension From the BSNIP Study.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Mohammadreza; Narayanan, Balaji; Hamm, Jordan P; Soh, Pauline; Calhoun, Vince D; Ruaño, Gualberto; Kocherla, Mohan; Windemuth, Andreas; Clementz, Brett A; Tamminga, Carol A; Sweeney, John A; Keshavan, Matcheri S; Pearlson, Godfrey D

2016-05-01

The complex molecular etiology of psychosis in schizophrenia (SZ) and psychotic bipolar disorder (PBP) is not well defined, presumably due to their multifactorial genetic architecture. Neurobiological correlates of psychosis can be identified through genetic associations of intermediate phenotypes such as event-related potential (ERP) from auditory paired stimulus processing (APSP). Various ERP components of APSP are heritable and aberrant in SZ, PBP and their relatives, but their multivariate genetic factors are less explored. We investigated the multivariate polygenic association of ERP from 64-sensor auditory paired stimulus data in 149 SZ, 209 PBP probands, and 99 healthy individuals from the multisite Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network on Intermediate Phenotypes study. Multivariate association of 64-channel APSP waveforms with a subset of 16 999 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (reduced from 1 million SNP array) was examined using parallel independent component analysis (Para-ICA). Biological pathways associated with the genes were assessed using enrichment-based analysis tools. Para-ICA identified 2 ERP components, of which one was significantly correlated with a genetic network comprising multiple linearly coupled gene variants that explained ~4% of the ERP phenotype variance. Enrichment analysis revealed epidermal growth factor, endocannabinoid signaling, glutamatergic synapse and maltohexaose transport associated with P2 component of the N1-P2 ERP waveform. This ERP component also showed deficits in SZ and PBP. Aberrant P2 component in psychosis was associated with gene networks regulating several fundamental biologic functions, either general or specific to nervous system development. The pathways and processes underlying the gene clusters play a crucial role in brain function, plausibly implicated in psychosis. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Kernel canonical-correlation Granger causality for multiple time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Guorong; Duan, Xujun; Liao, Wei; Gao, Qing; Chen, Huafu

2011-04-01

Canonical-correlation analysis as a multivariate statistical technique has been applied to multivariate Granger causality analysis to infer information flow in complex systems. It shows unique appeal and great superiority over the traditional vector autoregressive method, due to the simplified procedure that detects causal interaction between multiple time series, and the avoidance of potential model estimation problems. However, it is limited to the linear case. Here, we extend the framework of canonical correlation to include the estimation of multivariate nonlinear Granger causality for drawing inference about directed interaction. Its feasibility and effectiveness are verified on simulated data.

Endoscopic duodenal stent versus surgical gastrojejunostomy for gastric outlet obstruction in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer.

PubMed

Uemura, Shinya; Iwashita, Takuji; Iwata, Keisuke; Mukai, Tsuyoshi; Osada, Shinji; Sekino, Takafumi; Adachi, Takahito; Kawai, Masahiko; Yasuda, Ichiro; Shimizu, Masahito

2018-05-03

Malignant gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) often develops in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC). It is not clear whether endoscopic duodenal stenting (DS) or surgical gastrojejunostomy (GJJ) is preferable as palliative treatment. To compare the efficacy and safety of GJJ and DS for GOO with APC. Consecutive 99 patients who underwent DS or GJJ for GOO with APC were evaluated. We compared the technical and clinical success rates, the incidence of adverse event (AE), the time to start chemotherapy and discharge and survival durations between DS and GJJ. Prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) were investigated on the multivariate analysis. GOO was managed with GJJ in 35 and DS in 64. The technical and clinical success rates were comparable. DS was associated with shorter time to start oral intake and earlier chemotherapy start and discharge. No difference was seen in the early and late AE rates. Multivariate analyses of prognostic factors for OS showed that performance status ≧2, administration of chemotherapy, and presence of obstructive jaundice to be significant factors. There were no significant differences in survival durations between the groups, regardless of the PS. There were no significant differences in the technical and clinical success and AE rates and survival duration between DS and GJJ in management of GOO by APC. DS may be a preferable option over GJJ given that it will lead to an earlier return to oral intake, a shortened length of hospital stay, and finally an earlier referral for chemotherapy. Copyright © 2018 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

A Quantitative Analysis of Out-of-Hospital Pediatric and Adolescent Resuscitation Quality–A Report from the ROC Epistry–Cardiac Arrest

PubMed Central

Sutton, Robert M.; Case, Erin; Brown, Siobhan P.; Atkins, Dianne L.; Nadkarni, Vinay M.; Kaltman, Jonathan; Callaway, Clifton W.; Idris, Ahamed H.; Nichol, Graham; Hutchison, Jamie; Drennan, Ian R.; Austin, Michael A; Daya, Mohamud; Cheskes, Sheldon; Nuttall, Jack; Herren, Heather; Christenson, James; Andrusiek, Douglas L; Vaillancourt, Christian; Menegazzi, James J.; Rea, Thomas D.; Berg, Robert A.

2015-01-01

Aim High-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) may improve survival. The quality of CPR performed during pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (p-OHCA) is largely unknown. The main objective of this study was to describe the quality of CPR performed during p-OHCA resuscitation attempts. Methods Prospective observational multi-center cohort study of p-OHCA patients ≥1 and < 19 years of age registered in the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium (ROC) Epistry database. The primary outcome was an a priori composite variable of compliance with American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines for both chest compression (CC) rate and CC fraction (CCF). Event compliance was defined as a case with 60% or more of its minute epochs compliant with AHA targets (rate 100–120 min−1; depth ≥38 mm; and CCF ≥0.80). In a secondary analysis, multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between guideline compliance and return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Results Between December 2005 and December 2012, 2,564 pediatric events were treated by EMS providers, 390 of which were included in the final cohort. Of these events, 22% achieved AHA compliance for both rate and CCF, 36% for rate alone, 53% for CCF alone, and 58% for depth alone. Over time, there was a significant increase in CCF (p< 0.001) and depth (p=0.03). After controlling for potential confounders, there was no significant association between AHA guideline compliance and ROSC. Conclusions In this multi-center study, we have established that there are opportunities for professional rescuers to improve prehospital CPR quality. Encouragingly, CCF and depth both increased significantly over time. PMID:25917262

Natural history of the ascending aorta after aortic valve replacement: risk factor analysis for late aortic complications after aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Tsutsumi, Koji; Hashizume, Kenichi; Inoue, Yoshito

2016-05-01

The purpose of this study was to clarify the natural history of the ascending aorta and to identify risk factors for late ascending aortic events after first isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 287 patients undergoing AVR were enrolled. The patients were categorized into two groups based on the diameter of the ascending aorta at the time of AVR, as determined by computed tomography: Group A (n = 233) was defined as an ascending aortic diameter <40 mm, and Group B (n = 54) was defined as an ascending aortic diameter ≥40 mm. The mean follow-up period was 7.6 years. The baseline diameter of the ascending aorta was 31.4 ± 4.8 mm in Group A and 44.7 ± 4.2 mm in Group B. These values increased to 35.9 ± 7.4 mm in Group A and 50.1 ± 7.3 mm in Group B during the follow-up period (P < 0.001). Ten patients had acute type A aortic dissection (Group A: 1 patient vs. Group B: 9 patients; P < 0.001), and three patients had enlargement of the ascending aorta to ≥55 mm in diameter (Group A: 1 patient vs. Group B: 2 patients). Multivariate analysis revealed that the baseline ascending aortic diameter was the only significant risk factor for developing late ascending aortic events (P < 0.001). AVR alone may not prevent further enlargement of the ascending aorta. An ascending aorta ≥40 mm in diameter at the time of AVR increased the risk of late ascending aortic events.

Incidental Statin Use and the Risk of Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack after Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

PubMed Central

Addison, Daniel; Lawler, Patrick R.; Emami, Hamed; Janjua, Sumbal A.; Staziaki, Pedro V.; Hallett, Travis R.; Hennessy, Orla; Lee, Hang; Szilveszter, Bálint; Lu, Michael; Mousavi, Negar; Nayor, Matthew G.; Delling, Francesca N.; Romero, Javier M.; Wirth, Lori J.; Chan, Annie W.; Hoffmann, Udo; Neilan, Tomas G.

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose Interventions to reduce the risk for cerebrovascular events (CVE; stroke and transient ischemic attack [TIA]) after radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck cancer (HNCA) are needed. Among broad populations, statins reduce CVEs; however, whether statins reduce CVEs after RT for HNCA is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to test whether incidental statin use at the time of RT is associated with a lower rate of CVEs after RT for HNCA. Methods From an institutional database we identified all consecutive subjects treated with neck RT from 2002 to 2012 for HNCA. Data collection and event adjudication was performed by blinded teams. The primary outcome was a composite of ischemic stroke and TIA. The secondary outcome was ischemic stroke. The association between statin use and events was determined using Cox proportional hazard models after adjustment for traditional and RT-specific risk factors. Results The final cohort consisted of 1,011 patients (59±13 years, 30% female, 44% hypertension) with 288 (28%) on statins. Over a median follow-up of 3.4 years (interquartile range, 0.1 to 14) there were 102 CVEs (89 ischemic strokes and 13 TIAs) with 17 in statin users versus 85 in nonstatins users. In a multivariable model containing known predictors of CVE, statins were associated with a reduction in the combination of stroke and TIA (hazard ratio [HR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.8; P=0.01) and ischemic stroke alone (HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.8; P=0.01). Conclusions Incidental statin use at the time of RT for HNCA is associated with a lower risk of stroke or TIA. PMID:29402065

Of 20,376 Lumbar Discectomies, 2.6% of Patients Readmitted Within 30 Days: Surgical Site Infection, Pain, and Thromboembolic Events Are the Most Common Reasons for Readmission.

PubMed

Webb, Matthew L; Nelson, Stephen J; Save, Ameya V; Cui, Jonathan J; Lukasiewicz, Adam M; Samuel, Andre M; Diaz-Collado, Pablo J; Bohl, Daniel D; Ondeck, Nathaniel T; McLynn, Ryan P; Grauer, Jonathan N

2017-08-15

A retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data. As an initial effort to address readmissions after lumbar discectomy, reasons for hospital readmission are identified and discussed. Lumbar discectomy is a commonly performed procedure. The Affordable Care Act codifies penalties for hospital readmissions. New quality-based reimbursements tied to readmissions call for a better understanding of the causes of readmission after procedures such as lumbar discectomy. Lumbar discectomies performed in 2012 to 2014 were identified in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Patient demographics, surgical variables, and reasons for readmissions within 30 days were recorded. Pearson chi square was used to compare rates of demographics and surgical variables between readmitted and nonreadmitted patients. Multivariate regression was used to identify risk factors for readmission. Of 20,376 lumbar discectomies, 533 patients (2.62%) were readmitted within 30 days of surgery. The most common reasons for readmission were surgical site infections (n = 130, 0.64% of all discectomies, 24.4% of all readmissions), followed by pain issues (n = 89, 0.44%, 16.7%), and thromboembolic events (43, 0.21%, 8.1%). Overall time to readmission was 13.0 ± 8.0 days (mean ± standard deviation). Factors most associated with readmission after lumbar discectomy were higher American Society of Anesthesiologists class (relative risk = 1.49, P < 0.001) and prolonged operative time (relative risk = 1.41, P = 0.002). Surgical site infection, postoperative pain, and thromboembolic events were the most common reasons for readmission after lumbar discectomy. These findings identify potential areas for quality improvement initiatives. 3.

Left ventricular energy model predicts adverse events in women with suspected myocardial ischemia: results from the NHLBI-sponsored women’s ischemia syndrome evaluation (WISE) study

PubMed Central

Weinberg, Nicole; Pohost, Gerald M.; Bairey Merz, C. Noel; Shaw, Leslee J.; Sopko, George; Fuisz, Anthon; Rogers, William J.; Walsh, Edward G.; Johnson, B. Delia; Sharaf, Barry L.; Pepine, Carl J.; Mankad, Sunil; Reis, Steven E.; Rayarao, Geetha; Vido, Diane A.; Bittner, Vera; Tauxe, Lindsey; Olson, Marian B.; Kelsey, Sheryl F.; Biederman, Robert WW

2013-01-01

Objectives To assess the prognostic value of a left ventricular energy-model in women with suspected myocardial ischemia. Background The prognostic value of internal energy utilization (IEU) of the left ventricle in women with suspected myocardial ischemia is unknown. Methods Women [n=227, mean age 59±12 years (range, 31-86 years)], with symptoms of myocardial ischemia, underwent myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) assessment for regional perfusion defects along with measurement of ventricular volumes separately by gated Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) (n=207) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (n=203). During follow-up (40±17 months), time to first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE, death, myocardial infarction or hospitalization for congestive heart failure) was analyzed using MRI and gated SPECT variables. Results Adverse events occurred in 31 (14%). Multivariable Cox models were formed for each modality: IEU and wall thickness by MRI (Chi-squared 34, P<0.005) and IEU and systolic blood pressure by gated SEPCT (Chi-squared 34, P<0.005). The models remained predictive after adjustment for age, disease history and Framingham risk score. For each Cox model, patients were categorized as high-risk if the model hazard was positive and not high-risk otherwise. Kaplan-Meier analysis of time to MACE was performed for high-risk vs. not high-risk for MR (log rank 25.3, P<0.001) and gated SEPCT (log rank 18.2, P<0.001) models. Conclusions Among women with suspected myocardial ischemia a high internal energy utilization has higher prognostic value than either a low EF or the presence of a myocardial perfusion defect assessed using two independent modalities of MR or gated SPECT. PMID:24015377

Allopurinol and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adults With Hypertension.

PubMed

MacIsaac, Rachael L; Salatzki, Janek; Higgins, Peter; Walters, Matthew R; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Dominiczak, Anna F; Touyz, Rhian M; Dawson, Jesse

2016-03-01

Allopurinol lowers blood pressure in adolescents and has other vasoprotective effects. Whether similar benefits occur in older individuals remains unclear. We hypothesized that allopurinol is associated with improved cardiovascular outcomes in older adults with hypertension. Data from the United Kingdom Clinical Research Practice Datalink were used. Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios for stroke and cardiac events (defined as myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome) associated with allopurinol use over a 10-year period in adults aged >65 years with hypertension. A propensity-matched design was used to reduce potential for confounding. Allopurinol exposure was a time-dependent variable and was defined as any exposure and then as high (≥300 mg daily) or low-dose exposure. A total of 2032 allopurinol-exposed patients and 2032 matched nonexposed patients were studied. Allopurinol use was associated with a significantly lower risk of both stroke (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.80) and cardiac events (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.87) than nonexposed control patients. In exposed patients, high-dose treatment with allopurinol (n=1052) was associated with a significantly lower risk of both stroke (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.94) and cardiac events (hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.93) than low-dose treatment (n=980). Allopurinol use is associated with lower rates of stroke and cardiac events in older adults with hypertension, particularly at higher doses. Prospective clinical trials are needed to evaluate whether allopurinol improves cardiovascular outcomes in adults with hypertension. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Intrapartum fetal heart rate classification from trajectory in Sparse SVM feature space.

PubMed

Spilka, J; Frecon, J; Leonarduzzi, R; Pustelnik, N; Abry, P; Doret, M

2015-01-01

Intrapartum fetal heart rate (FHR) constitutes a prominent source of information for the assessment of fetal reactions to stress events during delivery. Yet, early detection of fetal acidosis remains a challenging signal processing task. The originality of the present contribution are three-fold: multiscale representations and wavelet leader based multifractal analysis are used to quantify FHR variability ; Supervised classification is achieved by means of Sparse-SVM that aim jointly to achieve optimal detection performance and to select relevant features in a multivariate setting ; Trajectories in the feature space accounting for the evolution along time of features while labor progresses are involved in the construction of indices quantifying fetal health. The classification performance permitted by this combination of tools are quantified on a intrapartum FHR large database (≃ 1250 subjects) collected at a French academic public hospital.

REGIONAL-SCALE WIND FIELD CLASSIFICATION EMPLOYING CLUSTER ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glascoe, L G; Glaser, R E; Chin, H S

2004-06-17

The classification of time-varying multivariate regional-scale wind fields at a specific location can assist event planning as well as consequence and risk analysis. Further, wind field classification involves data transformation and inference techniques that effectively characterize stochastic wind field variation. Such a classification scheme is potentially useful for addressing overall atmospheric transport uncertainty and meteorological parameter sensitivity issues. Different methods to classify wind fields over a location include the principal component analysis of wind data (e.g., Hardy and Walton, 1978) and the use of cluster analysis for wind data (e.g., Green et al., 1992; Kaufmann and Weber, 1996). The goalmore » of this study is to use a clustering method to classify the winds of a gridded data set, i.e, from meteorological simulations generated by a forecast model.« less

Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

PubMed

Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

2015-01-01

Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Extreme climatic events change the dynamics and invasibility of semi-arid annual plant communities.

PubMed

Jiménez, Milagros A; Jaksic, Fabian M; Armesto, Juan J; Gaxiola, Aurora; Meserve, Peter L; Kelt, Douglas A; Gutiérrez, Julio R

2011-12-01

Extreme climatic events represent disturbances that change the availability of resources. We studied their effects on annual plant assemblages in a semi-arid ecosystem in north-central Chile. We analysed 130 years of precipitation data using generalised extreme-value distribution to determine extreme events, and multivariate techniques to analyse 20 years of plant cover data of 34 native and 11 exotic species. Extreme drought resets the dynamics of the system and renders it susceptible to invasion. On the other hand, by favouring native annuals, moderately wet events change species composition and allow the community to be resilient to extreme drought. The probability of extreme drought has doubled over the last 50 years. Therefore, investigations on the interaction of climate change and biological invasions are relevant to determine the potential for future effects on the dynamics of semi-arid annual plant communities. 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Rare events modeling with support vector machine: Application to forecasting large-amplitude geomagnetic substorms and extreme events in financial markets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrishchaka, V. V.; Ganguli, S. B.

2001-12-01

Reliable forecasting of rare events in a complex dynamical system is a challenging problem that is important for many practical applications. Due to the nature of rare events, data set available for construction of the statistical and/or machine learning model is often very limited and incomplete. Therefore many widely used approaches including such robust algorithms as neural networks can easily become inadequate for rare events prediction. Moreover in many practical cases models with high-dimensional inputs are required. This limits applications of the existing rare event modeling techniques (e.g., extreme value theory) that focus on univariate cases. These approaches are not easily extended to multivariate cases. Support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning system that can provide an optimal generalization using very limited and incomplete training data sets and can efficiently handle high-dimensional data. These features may allow to use SVM to model rare events in some applications. We have applied SVM-based system to the problem of large-amplitude substorm prediction and extreme event forecasting in stock and currency exchange markets. Encouraging preliminary results will be presented and other possible applications of the system will be discussed.

A Multivariate Multilevel Approach to the Modeling of Accuracy and Speed of Test Takers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein Entink, R. H.; Fox, J. P.; van der Linden, W. J.

2009-01-01

Response times on test items are easily collected in modern computerized testing. When collecting both (binary) responses and (continuous) response times on test items, it is possible to measure the accuracy and speed of test takers. To study the relationships between these two constructs, the model is extended with a multivariate multilevel…

The influence of comorbid disorders on the episodicity of bipolar disorder in youth.

PubMed

Yen, S; Stout, R; Hower, H; Killam, M A; Weinstock, L M; Topor, D R; Dickstein, D P; Hunt, J I; Gill, M K; Goldstein, T R; Goldstein, B I; Ryan, N D; Strober, M; Sala, R; Axelson, D A; Birmaher, B; Keller, M B

2016-04-01

Bipolar disorder (BP) frequently co-occurs with other psychiatric disorders. We examine whether course of anxiety disorders (ANX), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), disruptive behavior disorders (DBD), and substance use disorders (SUD) influence likelihood of recovery and recurrence of depression and mania in BP youth. Weekly ratings of psychiatric disorder intensity were obtained from 413 participants of the Course and Outcome of BP Youth project, followed for an average of 7.75 years. Multiple-event Cox proportional hazards regression analyses examined worsening of comorbid disorders as predictors of mood episode recovery and recurrence. Increased severity in ANX and SUD predicted longer time to recovery and less time to next depressive episode, and less time to next manic episode. Multivariate models with ANX and SUD found that significant effects of ANX remained, but SUD only predicted longer time to depression recovery. Increased severity of ADHD and DBD predicted shorter time to recurrence for depressive and manic episodes. There are significant time-varying relationships between the course of comorbid disorders and episodicity of depression and mania in BP youth. Worsening of comorbid conditions may present as a precursor to mood episode recurrence or warn of mood episode protraction. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical predictors of time to return to competition following hamstring injuries.

PubMed

Guillodo, Yannick; Here-Dorignac, Caroline; Thoribé, Bertrand; Madouas, Gwénaelle; Dauty, Marc; Tassery, Francois; Saraux, Alain

2014-07-01

hamstring strain injuries are the most common sports-related muscle injuries and one of the main causes of missed sporting events. clinical findings reflecting hamstring injury severity at presentation predict time to sports resumption. cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. five sports medicine specialists at four sports medicine centers prospectively evaluated 120 athletes within 5 days of acute hamstring injury. Patients were interviewed and asked to evaluate their worst pain on a visual analog scale (VAS). Four physical criteria were assessed at baseline: bruising, tenderness to palpation, pain upon isometric contraction, and pain upon passive straightening. The same standardized rehabilitation protocol was used in all patients. A standardized telephone interview was conducted 45 days after the injury to determine the time to-full recovery (≤40 days or >40 days). by univariate analysis, clinical criteria associated with a full recovery time >40 days were VAS pain score greater than 6, popping sound injury, pain during everyday activities for more than 3 days, bruising, and greater than 15° motion-range limitation. By multivariate analysis, only VAS pain score and pain during everyday activities were significantly associated with time to recovery >40 days (53% sensitivity, 95% specificity). the initial examination provides valuable information that can be used to predict the time to full recovery after acute hamstring injuries in athletes.

Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

2014-05-01

Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the historic and synthetic flood events have to be spatially interpolated from point scale (i.e. river gauges) to the river network. Therefore, topological kriging (Top-kriging) proposed by Skøien et al. (2006) is applied. Top-kriging considers the nested structure of river networks and is therefore suitable to regionalise flood characteristics. Thus, the characteristics of a large number of possible flood events can be transferred to arbitrary locations (e.g. community level) at the river network within a study region. This framework has been used to generate a set of spatial correlated river flood events in the Austrian Federal Province of Vorarlberg. In addition, loss-probability-curves for each community has been calculated based on official inundation maps of public authorities, elements at risks and their vulnerability. One location along the river network within each community refers as interface between the set of flood events and the individual loss-probability relationships for the individual communities. Consequently, every flood event from the historic and synthetic generated dataset can be monetary evaluated. Thus, a time series comprising a large number of flood events and their corresponding monetary losses serves as basis for a probabilistic flood risk assessment. This includes expected annual losses and estimates of extreme event losses, which occur over the course of a certain time period. The gained results are essential decision-support for primary insurers, reinsurance companies and public authorities in order to setup a scale adequate risk management.

Predict or classify: The deceptive role of time-locking in brain signal classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusconi, Marco; Valleriani, Angelo

2016-06-01

Several experimental studies claim to be able to predict the outcome of simple decisions from brain signals measured before subjects are aware of their decision. Often, these studies use multivariate pattern recognition methods with the underlying assumption that the ability to classify the brain signal is equivalent to predict the decision itself. Here we show instead that it is possible to correctly classify a signal even if it does not contain any predictive information about the decision. We first define a simple stochastic model that mimics the random decision process between two equivalent alternatives, and generate a large number of independent trials that contain no choice-predictive information. The trials are first time-locked to the time point of the final event and then classified using standard machine-learning techniques. The resulting classification accuracy is above chance level long before the time point of time-locking. We then analyze the same trials using information theory. We demonstrate that the high classification accuracy is a consequence of time-locking and that its time behavior is simply related to the large relaxation time of the process. We conclude that when time-locking is a crucial step in the analysis of neural activity patterns, both the emergence and the timing of the classification accuracy are affected by structural properties of the network that generates the signal.

Effect of first myocardial ischemic event on renal function.

PubMed

Eijkelkamp, Wouter B A; de Graeff, Pieter A; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; van Dokkum, Richard P E; Gansevoort, Ronald T; de Jong, Paul E; de Zeeuw, Dick; Hillege, Hans L

2007-07-01

Effects of cardiovascular dysfunction on renal function have been poorly characterized. Therefore, we investigated the relation between a first ischemic cardiac event and long-term renal function changes in the general population from the PREVEND study. We studied 6,360 subjects with a total follow-up duration of 27.017 subject-years. The estimated mean proportional increase in serum creatinine after a first ischemic cardiac event was 3.1% compared with 0.4% per year of follow-up in subjects without such an event (p = 0.005). This represented a significantly larger decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate after the event in subjects with an event versus the decrease in subjects without a first ischemic cardiac event (2.2 vs 0.5 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/year of follow-up, p = 0.006). In multivariate analysis with adjustment for renal risk factors, this event showed an independent association with serum creatinine change. In conclusion, a first ischemic cardiac event appears to enhance the natural decrease in renal function. Because even mild renal dysfunction should be considered a major cardiovascular risk factor after myocardial infarction, increased renal function loss after an ischemic cardiac event could add to the risk for subsequent cardiovascular morbidity, thus closing a vicious circle.

Univariate and multivariate spatial models of health facility utilisation for childhood fevers in an area on the coast of Kenya.

PubMed

Ouma, Paul O; Agutu, Nathan O; Snow, Robert W; Noor, Abdisalan M

2017-09-18

Precise quantification of health service utilisation is important for the estimation of disease burden and allocation of health resources. Current approaches to mapping health facility utilisation rely on spatial accessibility alone as the predictor. However, other spatially varying social, demographic and economic factors may affect the use of health services. The exclusion of these factors can lead to the inaccurate estimation of health facility utilisation. Here, we compare the accuracy of a univariate spatial model, developed only from estimated travel time, to a multivariate model that also includes relevant social, demographic and economic factors. A theoretical surface of travel time to the nearest public health facility was developed. These were assigned to each child reported to have had fever in the Kenya demographic and health survey of 2014 (KDHS 2014). The relationship of child treatment seeking for fever with travel time, household and individual factors from the KDHS2014 were determined using multilevel mixed modelling. Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and likelihood ratio test (LRT) tests were carried out to measure how selected factors improve parsimony and goodness of fit of the time model. Using the mixed model, a univariate spatial model of health facility utilisation was fitted using travel time as the predictor. The mixed model was also used to compute a multivariate spatial model of utilisation, using travel time and modelled surfaces of selected household and individual factors as predictors. The univariate and multivariate spatial models were then compared using the receiver operating area under the curve (AUC) and a percent correct prediction (PCP) test. The best fitting multivariate model had travel time, household wealth index and number of children in household as the predictors. These factors reduced BIC of the time model from 4008 to 2959, a change which was confirmed by the LRT test. Although there was a high correlation of the two modelled probability surfaces (Adj R 2  = 88%), the multivariate model had better AUC compared to the univariate model; 0.83 versus 0.73 and PCP 0.61 versus 0.45 values. Our study shows that a model that uses travel time, as well as household and individual-level socio-demographic factors, results in a more accurate estimation of use of health facilities for the treatment of childhood fever, compared to one that relies on only travel time.

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, E. N.; Meehan, P. M.; Dempster, A. P.

2001-01-01

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

Hippocampal maturity promotes memory distinctiveness in childhood and adolescence

PubMed Central

Keresztes, Attila; Bender, Andrew R.; Bodammer, Nils C.; Shing, Yee Lee

2017-01-01

Adaptive learning systems need to meet two complementary and partially conflicting goals: detecting regularities in the world versus remembering specific events. The hippocampus (HC) keeps a fine balance between computations that extract commonalities of incoming information (i.e., pattern completion) and computations that enable encoding of highly similar events into unique representations (i.e., pattern separation). Histological evidence from young rhesus monkeys suggests that HC development is characterized by the differential development of intrahippocampal subfields and associated networks. However, due to challenges in the in vivo investigation of such developmental organization, the ontogenetic timing of HC subfield maturation remains controversial. Delineating its course is important, as it directly influences the fine balance between pattern separation and pattern completion operations and, thus, developmental changes in learning and memory. Here, we relate in vivo, high-resolution structural magnetic resonance imaging data of HC subfields to behavioral memory performance in children aged 6–14 y and in young adults. We identify a multivariate profile of age-related differences in intrahippocampal structures and show that HC maturity as captured by this pattern is associated with age differences in the differential encoding of unique memory representations. PMID:28784801

Analysis of synoptic patterns in relationship with severe rainfall events in the Ebre Observatory (Catalonia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Redaño, Angel; Solé, German

2018-03-01

The study has obtained a classification of the synoptic patterns associated with a selection of extreme rain episodes registered in the Ebre Observatory between 1905 and 2003, showing a return period of not less than 10 years for any duration from 5 min to 24 h. These episodes had been previously classified in four rainfall intensity groups attending to their meteorological time scale. The synoptic patterns related to every group have been obtained applying a multivariable analysis to three atmospheric levels: sea-level pressure, temperature, and geopotential at 500 hPa. Usually, the synoptic patterns associated with intense rain in southern Catalonia are featured by low-pressure systems advecting warm and wet air from the Mediterranean Sea at the low levels of the troposphere. The configuration in the middle levels of the troposphere is dominated by negative anomalies of geopotential, indicating the presence of a low or a cold front, and temperature anomalies, promoting the destabilization of the atmosphere. These configurations promote the occurrence of severe convective events due to the difference of temperature between the low and medium levels of troposphere and the contribution of humidity in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

Quality by design case study: an integrated multivariate approach to drug product and process development.

PubMed

Huang, Jun; Kaul, Goldi; Cai, Chunsheng; Chatlapalli, Ramarao; Hernandez-Abad, Pedro; Ghosh, Krishnendu; Nagi, Arwinder

2009-12-01

To facilitate an in-depth process understanding, and offer opportunities for developing control strategies to ensure product quality, a combination of experimental design, optimization and multivariate techniques was integrated into the process development of a drug product. A process DOE was used to evaluate effects of the design factors on manufacturability and final product CQAs, and establish design space to ensure desired CQAs. Two types of analyses were performed to extract maximal information, DOE effect & response surface analysis and multivariate analysis (PCA and PLS). The DOE effect analysis was used to evaluate the interactions and effects of three design factors (water amount, wet massing time and lubrication time), on response variables (blend flow, compressibility and tablet dissolution). The design space was established by the combined use of DOE, optimization and multivariate analysis to ensure desired CQAs. Multivariate analysis of all variables from the DOE batches was conducted to study relationships between the variables and to evaluate the impact of material attributes/process parameters on manufacturability and final product CQAs. The integrated multivariate approach exemplifies application of QbD principles and tools to drug product and process development.

Pooled Analysis of Individual Patient Data on Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Stage III Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Elderly Patients Compared With Younger Patients Who Participated in US National Cancer Institute Cooperative Group Studies.

PubMed

Stinchcombe, Thomas E; Zhang, Ying; Vokes, Everett E; Schiller, Joan H; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Kelly, Karen; Curran, Walter J; Schild, Steven E; Movsas, Benjamin; Clamon, Gerald; Govindan, Ramaswamy; Blumenschein, George R; Socinski, Mark A; Ready, Neal E; Akerley, Wallace L; Cohen, Harvey J; Pang, Herbert H; Wang, Xiaofei

2017-09-01

Purpose Concurrent chemoradiotherapy is standard treatment for patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer. Elderly patients may experience increased rates of adverse events (AEs) or less benefit from concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods Individual patient data were collected from 16 phase II or III trials conducted by US National Cancer Institute-supported cooperative groups of concurrent chemoradiotherapy alone or with consolidation or induction chemotherapy for stage III non-small-cell lung cancer from 1990 to 2012. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival, and AEs were compared between patients age ≥ 70 (elderly) and those younger than 70 years (younger). Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for survival time and CIs were estimated by single-predictor and multivariable frailty Cox models. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (ORs) for AEs and CIs were obtained from single-predictor and multivariable generalized linear mixed-effect models. Results A total of 2,768 patients were classified as younger and 832 as elderly. In unadjusted and multivariable models, elderly patients had worse OS (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.31 and HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.29, respectively). In unadjusted and multivariable models, elderly and younger patients had similar progression-free survival (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.10 and HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.09, respectively). Elderly patients had a higher rate of grade ≥ 3 AEs in unadjusted and multivariable models (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.70 and OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.74, respectively). Grade 5 AEs were significantly higher in elderly compared with younger patients (9% v 4%; P < .01). Fewer elderly compared with younger patients completed treatment (47% v 57%; P < .01), and more discontinued treatment because of AEs (20% v 13%; P < .01), died during treatment (7.8% v 2.9%; P < .01), and refused further treatment (5.8% v 3.9%; P = .02). Conclusion Elderly patients in concurrent chemoradiotherapy trials experienced worse OS, more toxicity, and had a higher rate of death during treatment than younger patients.

Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

2016-04-01

Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for 60 years (1951-2010) show large annual and multiannual variability. The trends are mostly positive in the western parts and negative to the east. However, due to the large temporal variability, the trends are not significant at most of the grid points. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the environmental conditions that favor the formation of hailstorms prevail in larger areas. This finding suggests that, despite the local-scale nature of convective storms, the ambient conditions favoring these events are mainly controlled by large-scale circulation patterns and mechanisms. This result is important to estimate the convective potential of the atmosphere in case of single events.

30-Day morbidity after augmentation enterocystoplasty and appendicovesicostomy: A NSQIP pediatric analysis.

PubMed

McNamara, Erin R; Kurtz, Michael P; Schaeffer, Anthony J; Logvinenko, Tanya; Nelson, Caleb P

2015-08-01

Augmentation enterocystoplasty and appendicovesicostomy are complex pediatric urologic procedures. Although there is literature identifying long-term outcomes in these patients, the reporting of short-term postoperative outcomes has been limited by small numbers of cases and lack of prospective data collection. Here we report 30-day outcomes from the first nationally based, prospectively assembled cohort of pediatric patients undergoing these procedures. To determine 30-day complication, readmission and reoperation after augmentation enterocystoplasty and appendicovesicostomy in a large national sample of pediatric patients, and to explore the association between preoperative and intraoperative characteristics and occurrence of any 30-day event. We queried the 2012 and 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatric database (ACS-NSQIPP) for all patients undergoing augmentation enterocystoplasty and/or appendicovesicostomy. Surgical risk score was classified on a linear scale using a validated pediatric-specific comorbidity score. Intraoperative characteristics and postoperative 30-day events were reported from prospectively collected data. A composite measure of complication, readmission and/or reoperation was used as primary outcome for the multivariate logistic regression. There were 461 patients included in the analysis: 245 had appendicovesicostomy, 97 had augmentation enterocystoplasty and 119 had both procedures. There were a total of 110 NSQIP complications seen in 87 patients. The most common complication was urinary tract infection (see Table for 30-day outcomes by patient). The composite measure of any 30-day event was seen in 27.8% of the cohort and this was associated with longer operative time, increased number of procedures done at time of primary surgical procedure and higher surgical risk score. The ACS-NSQIPP provides a tool to examine short-term outcomes for these complex urologic procedures that has not been possible before. Although ACS-NSQIP has been used extensively in the adult surgical literature to identify rates of complications, and to determine predictors of readmission and adverse events, its use in pediatric surgery is new. As in the adult literature, the goal is for standardization of practice and transparency in reporting outcomes that may lead to reduction in morbidity and mortality. In this cohort, any 30-day event is seen in almost 30% of the patients undergoing these urologic procedures. Operative time, number of concurrent procedures and higher surgical risk score all are associated with higher odds of the composite 30-day event of complication, readmission and/or reoperation. These data can be useful in counseling patients and families about expectations around surgery and in improving outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recovery and diversification of marine communities following the late Permian mass extinction event in the western Palaeotethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, William J.; Sebe, Krisztina

2017-08-01

The recovery of benthic invertebrates following the late Permian mass extinction event is often described as occurring in the Middle Triassic associated with the return of Early Triassic Lazarus taxa, increased body sizes, platform margin metazoan reefs, and increased tiering. Most quantitative palaeoecological studies, however, are limited to the Early Triassic and the timing of the final phase of recovery is rarely quantified. Here, quantitative abundance data of benthic invertebrates were collected from the Middle Triassic (Anisian) succession of the Mecsek Mountains (Hungary), and analysed with univariate and multivariate statistics to investigate the timing of recovery following the late Permian mass extinction. These communities lived in a mixed siliciclastic-carbonate ramp setting on the western margin of the Palaeotethys Ocean. The new data presented here is combined with the previously studied Lower Triassic succession of the Aggtelek Karst (Hungary), which records deposition of comparable facies and in the same region of the Palaeotethys Ocean. The Middle Triassic benthic fauna can be characterised by three distinct ecological states. The first state is recorded in the Viganvár Limestone Formation representing mollusc-dominated communities restricted to above wave base, which are comparable to the lower and mid-Spathian Szin Marl Formation faunas. The second state is recorded in the Lapis Limestone Formation and records extensive bioturbation that is not limited to wave base and is comparable to the upper Spathian Szinpetri Limestone Formation. The third ecological state occurs in the Zuhánya Limestone Formation which was deposited in the Pelsonian Binodosus Zone, and has a more 'Palaeozoic' structure with sessile brachiopods dominating assemblages for the first time in the Mesozoic. The return of community-level characteristics to pre-extinction levels and the diversification of invertebrates suggests that the final stages of recovery and the radiation of the benthos in ramp settings following the late Permian mass extinction occurred in the upper Pelsonian Zuhánya Limestone Formation, approximately 8 million years after the extinction event.

Clinical Implications of Residual Urine in Korean Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Patients: A Prognostic Factor for BPH-Related Clinical Events.

PubMed

Ko, Young Hwii; Chae, Ji Yun; Jeong, Seung Min; Kang, Jae Il; Ahn, Hong Jae; Kim, Hyung Woo; Kang, Sung Gu; Jang, Hoon Ah; Cheon, Jun; Kim, Je Jong; Lee, Jeong Gu

2010-12-01

Although post-void residual urine (PVR) is frequently utilized clinically in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), mainly because of its procedural simplicity, its role as a clinical prognostic factor, predictive of treatment goals, is still under much dispute. We investigated the predictive value of PVR for BPH-related clinical events including surgery, acute urinary retention (AUR), and admission following urinary tract infection (UTI). From January to June of 2006, patients over 50 years of age who were diagnosed with BPH for the first time at the outpatient clinic and were then treated for at least 3 years with medications were enrolled in this study. The variables of patients who underwent surgical intervention for BPH, had occurrences of AUR, or required admission due to UTI (Group 1, n=43) were compared with those of patients who were maintained with medications only (Group 2, n=266). Group 1 had a significantly higher PVR, more severe symptoms, and a larger prostate at the time of the initial diagnosis in both the univariate and the multivariate analysis. In the 39 patients who underwent BPH-related surgery, although there was a significant change in Qmax at the time of surgery (mean, 13.1 months), PVR and the symptom score remained unchanged compared with the initial evaluation. In the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve of Group 1 was in the order of prostate volume (0.834), PVR (0.712), and symptom score (0.621). When redivided by arbitrarily selected PVR cutoffs of 50 mL, 100 mL, and 150 mL, the relative risk of clinical BPH progression was measured as 3.93, 2.61, and 2.11. These data indicate that, in the symptomatic Korean population, increased PVR at baseline is a significant indicator of BPH-related clinical events along with increased symptom score or prostate volume.

Risk factors and mortality associated with default from multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment.

PubMed

Franke, Molly F; Appleton, Sasha C; Bayona, Jaime; Arteaga, Fernando; Palacios, Eda; Llaro, Karim; Shin, Sonya S; Becerra, Mercedes C; Murray, Megan B; Mitnick, Carole D

2008-06-15

Completing treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) may be more challenging than completing first-line TB therapy, especially in resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy (defined as prolonged treatment interruption), (2) quantify mortality among patients who default from treatment, and (3) identify risk factors for death after default from treatment. We performed a retrospective chart review to identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy and conducted home visits to assess mortality among patients who defaulted from such therapy. Sixty-seven (10.0%) of 671 patients defaulted from MDR TB therapy. The median time to treatment default was 438 days (interquartile range, 152-710 days), and 27 (40.3%) of the 67 patients who defaulted from treatment had culture-positive sputum at the time of default. Substance use (hazard ratio, 2.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.56-5.62; P = .001), substandard housing conditions (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.11; P = .03), later year of enrollment (hazard ratio, 1.62, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.41; P = .02), and health district (P = .02) predicted default from therapy in a multivariable analysis. Severe adverse events did not predict default from therapy. Forty-seven (70.1%) of 67 patients who defaulted from therapy were successfully traced; of these, 25 (53.2%) had died. Poor bacteriologic response, <1 year of treatment at the time of default, low education level, and diagnosis with a psychiatric disorder significantly predicted death after default in a multivariable analysis. The proportion of patients who defaulted from MDR TB treatment was relatively low. The large proportion of patients who had culture-positive sputum at the time of treatment default underscores the public health importance of minimizing treatment default. Prognosis for patients who defaulted from therapy was poor. Interventions aimed at preventing treatment default may reduce TB-related mortality.

Dissecting the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets using the partial triadic analysis.

PubMed

Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Nardin, Maxime; Godefroid, Martin; Ruiz-Diaz, Manuela; Sergent, Anne-Sophie; Martinez-Meier, Alejandro; Pâques, Luc; Rozenberg, Philippe

2014-01-01

Tree-ring datasets are used in a variety of circumstances, including archeology, climatology, forest ecology, and wood technology. These data are based on microdensity profiles and consist of a set of tree-ring descriptors, such as ring width or early/latewood density, measured for a set of individual trees. Because successive rings correspond to successive years, the resulting dataset is a ring variables × trees × time datacube. Multivariate statistical analyses, such as principal component analysis, have been widely used for extracting worthwhile information from ring datasets, but they typically address two-way matrices, such as ring variables × trees or ring variables × time. Here, we explore the potential of the partial triadic analysis (PTA), a multivariate method dedicated to the analysis of three-way datasets, to apprehend the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets. We analyzed a set of 11 tree-ring descriptors measured in 149 georeferenced individuals of European larch (Larix decidua Miller) during the period of 1967-2007. The processing of densitometry profiles led to a set of ring descriptors for each tree and for each year from 1967-2007. The resulting three-way data table was subjected to two distinct analyses in order to explore i) the temporal evolution of spatial structures and ii) the spatial structure of temporal dynamics. We report the presence of a spatial structure common to the different years, highlighting the inter-individual variability of the ring descriptors at the stand scale. We found a temporal trajectory common to the trees that could be separated into a high and low frequency signal, corresponding to inter-annual variations possibly related to defoliation events and a long-term trend possibly related to climate change. We conclude that PTA is a powerful tool to unravel and hierarchize the different sources of variation within tree-ring datasets.

[The most common vital events in women 45-64 years of age. Repercussions as psychophysical stressors].

PubMed

Marín Torrens, R M; Sánchez Cánovas, J; Donat Colomer, F; Dupuy Layo, M J; Salas Trejo, M D

1996-05-15

To find what vital events middle-aged women in our society most often experience and their influence as stress factors on physical health and subjective psychological well-being. A multivariant transversal study. 5 primary care centres in Valencia and Alicante. 306 women chosen at random among those seen at these health centres. Frequency analysis of vital events. Correlation analysis with questionnaires on physical symptoms and diseases, psychological well-being, work situation, emotional behaviour, sexuality and relationships with their partner. ANOVA: dividing the sample into 2 groups based on mean adaptive effort. The most common events numbered 23. The ANOVA showed a significant association between greater adaptive effort and negative emotional behaviour, personal control, material well-being, relationship with the partner, and physical and psychological symptoms. The relevance of daily events as generators of stress was confirmed, as was the impact of these and major events on these women's physical and psychological health. The importance of attending women at this stage of their lives from an integrated and interdisciplinary perspective, which tackles the physiological, psychological and cultural features together, was shown.

Long-term follow-up after near-infrared spectroscopy coronary imaging: Insights from the lipid cORe plaque association with CLinical events (ORACLE-NIRS) registry.

PubMed

Danek, Barbara Anna; Karatasakis, Aris; Karacsonyi, Judit; Alame, Aya; Resendes, Erica; Kalsaria, Pratik; Nguyen-Trong, Phuong-Khanh J; Rangan, Bavana V; Roesle, Michele; Abdullah, Shuaib; Banerjee, Subhash; Brilakis, Emmanouil S

Coronary lipid core plaque may be associated with the incidence of subsequent cardiovascular events. We analyzed outcomes of 239 patients who underwent near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) coronary imaging between 2009-2011. Multivariable Cox regression was used to identify variables independently associated with the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; cardiac mortality, acute coronary syndromes (ACS), stroke, and unplanned revascularization) during follow-up. Mean patient age was 64±9years, 99% were men, and 50% were diabetic, presenting with stable coronary artery disease (61%) or an acute coronary syndrome (ACS, 39%). Target vessel pre-stenting median lipid core burden index (LCBI) was 88 [interquartile range, IQR 50-130]. Median LCBI in non-target vessels was 57 [IQR 26-94]. Median follow-up was 5.3years. The 5-year MACE rate was 37.5% (cardiac mortality was 15.0%). On multivariable analysis the following variables were associated with MACE: diabetes mellitus, prior percutaneous coronary intervention performed at index angiography, and non-target vessel LCBI. Non-target vessel LCBI of 77 was determined using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis to be a threshold for prediction of MACE in our cohort. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for non-target vessel LCBI ≥77 was 14.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.47-133.51, p=0.002). The 5-year cumulative incidence of events in the above-threshold group was 58.0% vs. 13.1% in the below-threshold group. During long-term follow-up of patients who underwent NIRS imaging, high LCBI in a non-PCI target vessel was associated with increased incidence of MACE. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predicting the presence of sleep-disordered breathing in children with Down syndrome.

PubMed

Nehme, Joy; LaBerge, Robert; Pothos, Mary; Barrowman, Nick; Hoey, Lynda; Monsour, Andrea; Kukko, Madelaine; Katz, Sherri Lynne

2017-08-01

Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is highly prevalent in children with Down syndrome. Given the scarcity of resources and the presence of risk factors for SDB in this population, the objective of this study is to identify the clinical predictors of SDB, which would assist prioritization of children with Down syndrome for SDB evaluation. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on children enrolled in the Down syndrome clinic at CHEO who underwent polysomnography in 2004-2014. Total apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) or obstructive AHI (OAHI) > 5 events/hour was considered clinically significant. Associations between SDB and concurrent diagnoses, referral reasons, and sleep symptoms assessed by questionnaire were examined using Pearson's chi-square test or Fisher's exact test as appropriate. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to examine the predictors of SDB. SDB was present in 42.9% of 119 children, with its highest prevalence at age 8 years. Symptoms were not significantly associated with AHI > 5 events/hour or OAHI > 5 events/hour. Gastroesophageal reflux was associated with lower odds of OAHI > 5 events/hour on univariate testing (odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.04-0.72; p = 0.02) and multivariate analysis (odds ratio 0.05, 95% CI 0.0006-0.50; p = 0.002). SDB is highly prevalent at all ages in children with Down syndrome. Symptoms did not predict SDB in this population, although gastroesophageal reflux may mimic SDB, which indicates that clinicians should continue to perform ongoing surveillance for SDB throughout the lifespan of children with Down syndrome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paradoxical Tuberculosis Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome (TB-IRIS) in HIV Patients with Culture Confirmed Pulmonary Tuberculosis in India and the Potential Role of IL-6 in Prediction

PubMed Central

Porter, Brian O.; Chandrasekhar, Chockalingam; Venkatesan, Perumal; Menon, Pradeep A.; Subramanian, Sudha; Anbalagan, Selvaraj; Bhavani, Kannabiran P.; Sekar, Sathiyavelu; Padmapriyadarshini, Chandrasekaran; Kumar, Satagopan; Ravichandran, Narayanan; Raja, Krishnaraj; Bhanu, Kesavamurthy; Mahilmaran, Ayyamperumal; Sekar, Lakshmanan; Sher, Alan; Sereti, Irini; Swaminathan, Soumya

2013-01-01

Background The incidence, manifestations, outcome and clinical predictors of paradoxical TB-IRIS in patients with HIV and culture confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in India have not been studied prospectively. Methods HIV+ patients with culture confirmed PTB started on anti-tuberculosis therapy (ATT) were followed prospectively after anti-retroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Established criteria for IRIS diagnosis were used including decline in plasma HIV RNA at IRIS event. Pre-ART plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between baseline variables and IRIS. Results Of 57 patients enrolled, 48 had complete follow up data. Median ATT-ART interval was 28 days (interquartile range, IQR 14–47). IRIS events occurred in 26 patients (54.2%) at a median of 11 days (IQR: 7–16) after ART initiation. Corticosteroids were required for treatment of most IRIS events that resolved within a median of 13 days (IQR: 9–23). Two patients died due to CNS TB-IRIS. Lower CD4+ T-cell counts, higher plasma HIV RNA levels, lower CD4/CD8 ratio, lower hemoglobin, shorter ATT to ART interval, extra-pulmonary or miliary TB and higher plasma IL-6 and CRP levels at baseline were associated with paradoxical TB-IRIS in the univariate analysis. Shorter ATT to ART interval, lower hemoglobin and higher IL-6 and CRP levels remained significant in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion Paradoxical TB–IRIS frequently complicates HIV-TB therapy in India. IL-6 and CRP may assist in predicting IRIS events and serve as potential targets for immune interventions. PMID:23691062

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

High Frequency of Neuroimaging Abnormalities Among Pediatric Patients With Sepsis Who Undergo Neuroimaging.

PubMed

Sandquist, Mary K; Clee, Mark S; Patel, Smruti K; Howard, Kelli A; Yunger, Toni; Nagaraj, Usha D; Jones, Blaise V; Fei, Lin; Vadivelu, Sudhakar; Wong, Hector R

2017-07-01

This study was intended to describe and correlate the neuroimaging findings in pediatric patients after sepsis. Retrospective chart review. Single tertiary care PICU. Patients admitted to Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center with a discharge diagnosis of sepsis or septic shock between 2004 and 2013 were crossmatched with patients who underwent neuroimaging during the same time period. All neuroimaging studies that occurred during or subsequent to a septic event were reviewed, and all new imaging findings were recorded and classified. As many patients experienced multiple septic events and/or had multiple neuroimaging studies after sepsis, our statistical analysis utilized the most recent or "final" imaging study available for each patient so that only brain imaging findings that persisted were included. A total of 389 children with sepsis and 1,705 concurrent or subsequent neuroimaging studies were included in the study. Median age at first septic event was 3.4 years (interquartile range, 0.7-11.5). Median time from first sepsis event to final neuroimaging was 157 days (interquartile range, 10-1,054). The most common indications for final imaging were follow-up (21%), altered mental status (18%), and fever/concern for infection (15%). Sixty-three percentage (n = 243) of final imaging studies demonstrated abnormal findings, the most common of which were volume loss (39%) and MRI signal and/or CT attenuation abnormalities (21%). On multivariable logistic regression, highest Pediatric Risk of Mortality score and presence of oncologic diagnosis/organ transplantation were independently associated with any abnormal final neuroimaging study findings (odds ratio, 1.032; p = 0.048 and odds ratio, 1.632; p = 0.041), although early timing of neuroimaging demonstrated a negative association (odds ratio, 0.606; p = 0.039). The most common abnormal finding of volume loss was independently associated with highest Pediatric Risk of Mortality score (odds ratio, 1.037; p = 0.016) and oncologic diagnosis/organ transplantation (odds ratio, 2.207; p = 0.001) and was negatively associated with early timing of neuroimaging (odds ratio, 0.575; p = 0.037). The majority of pediatric patients with sepsis and concurrent or subsequent neuroimaging have abnormal neuroimaging findings. The implications of this high incidence for long-term neurologic outcomes and follow-up require further exploration.

Genomic Variation by Whole-Genome SNP Mapping Arrays Predicts Time-to-Event Outcome in Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

PubMed Central

Schweighofer, Carmen D.; Coombes, Kevin R.; Majewski, Tadeusz; Barron, Lynn L.; Lerner, Susan; Sargent, Rachel L.; O'Brien, Susan; Ferrajoli, Alessandra; Wierda, William G.; Czerniak, Bogdan A.; Medeiros, L. Jeffrey; Keating, Michael J.; Abruzzo, Lynne V.

2013-01-01

Genomic abnormalities, such as deletions in 11q22 or 17p13, are associated with poorer prognosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We hypothesized that unknown regions of copy number variation (CNV) affect clinical outcome and can be detected by array-based single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping. We compared SNP genotypes from 168 untreated patients with CLL with genotypes from 73 white HapMap controls. We identified 322 regions of recurrent CNV, 82 of which occurred significantly more often in CLL than in HapMap (CLL-specific CNV), including regions typically aberrant in CLL: deletions in 6q21, 11q22, 13q14, and 17p13 and trisomy 12. In univariate analyses, 35 of total and 11 of CLL-specific CNVs were associated with unfavorable time-to-event outcomes, including gains or losses in chromosomes 2p, 4p, 4q, 6p, 6q, 7q, 11p, 11q, and 17p. In multivariate analyses, six CNVs (ie, CLL-specific variations in 11p15.1-15.4 or 6q27) predicted time-to-treatment or overall survival independently of established markers of prognosis. Moreover, genotypic complexity (ie, the number of independent CNVs per patient) significantly predicted prognosis, with a median time-to-treatment of 64 months versus 23 months in patients with zero to one versus two or more CNVs, respectively (P = 3.3 × 10−8). In summary, a comparison of SNP genotypes from patients with CLL with HapMap controls allowed us to identify known and unknown recurrent CNVs and to determine regions and rates of CNV that predict poorer prognosis in patients with CLL. PMID:23273604

Multivariate statistical process control (MSPC) using Raman spectroscopy for in-line culture cell monitoring considering time-varying batches synchronized with correlation optimized warping (COW).

PubMed

Liu, Ya-Juan; André, Silvère; Saint Cristau, Lydia; Lagresle, Sylvain; Hannas, Zahia; Calvosa, Éric; Devos, Olivier; Duponchel, Ludovic

2017-02-01

Multivariate statistical process control (MSPC) is increasingly popular as the challenge provided by large multivariate datasets from analytical instruments such as Raman spectroscopy for the monitoring of complex cell cultures in the biopharmaceutical industry. However, Raman spectroscopy for in-line monitoring often produces unsynchronized data sets, resulting in time-varying batches. Moreover, unsynchronized data sets are common for cell culture monitoring because spectroscopic measurements are generally recorded in an alternate way, with more than one optical probe parallelly connecting to the same spectrometer. Synchronized batches are prerequisite for the application of multivariate analysis such as multi-way principal component analysis (MPCA) for the MSPC monitoring. Correlation optimized warping (COW) is a popular method for data alignment with satisfactory performance; however, it has never been applied to synchronize acquisition time of spectroscopic datasets in MSPC application before. In this paper we propose, for the first time, to use the method of COW to synchronize batches with varying durations analyzed with Raman spectroscopy. In a second step, we developed MPCA models at different time intervals based on the normal operation condition (NOC) batches synchronized by COW. New batches are finally projected considering the corresponding MPCA model. We monitored the evolution of the batches using two multivariate control charts based on Hotelling's T 2 and Q. As illustrated with results, the MSPC model was able to identify abnormal operation condition including contaminated batches which is of prime importance in cell culture monitoring We proved that Raman-based MSPC monitoring can be used to diagnose batches deviating from the normal condition, with higher efficacy than traditional diagnosis, which would save time and money in the biopharmaceutical industry. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Immediate versus delayed intramedullary nailing for open fractures of the tibial shaft: a multivariate analysis of factors affecting deep infection and fracture healing.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Kazuhiko; Itoman, Moritoshi; Uchino, Masataka; Fukushima, Kensuke; Nitta, Hiroshi; Kojima, Yoshiaki

2008-10-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate contributing factors affecting deep infection and fracture healing of open tibia fractures treated with locked intramedullary nailing (IMN) by multivariate analysis. We examined 99 open tibial fractures (98 patients) treated with immediate or delayed locked IMN in static fashion from 1991 to 2002. Multivariate analyses following univariate analyses were derived to determine predictors of deep infection, nonunion, and healing time to union. The following predictive variables of deep infection were selected for analysis: age, sex, Gustilo type, fracture grade by AO type, fracture location, timing or method of IMN, reamed or unreamed nailing, debridement time (< or =6 h or >6 h), method of soft-tissue management, skin closure time (< or =1 week or >1 week), existence of polytrauma (ISS< 18 or ISS> or =18), existence of floating knee injury, and existence of superficial/pin site infection. The predictive variables of nonunion selected for analysis was the same as those for deep infection, with the addition of deep infection for exchange of pin site infection. The predictive variables of union time selected for analysis was the same as those for nonunion, excluding of location, debridement time, and existence of floating knee and superficial infection. Six (6.1%; type II Gustilo n=1, type IIIB Gustilo n=5) of the 99 open tibial fractures developed deep infections. Multivariate analysis revealed that timing or method of IMN, debridement time, method of soft-tissue management, and existence of superficial or pin site infection significantly correlated with the occurrence of deep infection (P< 0.0001). In the immediate nailing group alone, the deep infection rate in type IIIB + IIIC was significantly higher than those in type I + II and IIIA (P = 0.016). Nonunion occurred in 17 fractures (20.3%, 17/84). Multivariate analysis revealed that Gustilo type, skin closure time, and existence of deep infection significantly correlated with occurrence of nonunion (P < 0.05). Gustilo type and existence of deep infection were significantly correlated with healing time to union on multivariate analysis (r(2) = 0.263, P = 0.0001). Multivariate analyses for open tibial fractures treated with IMN showed that IMN after EF (especially in existence of pin site infection) was at high risk of deep infection, and that debridement within 6 h and appropriate soft-tissue managements were also important factor in preventing deep infections. These analyses postulated that both the Gustilo type and the existence of deep infection is related with fracture healing in open fractures treated with IMN. In addition, immediate IMN for type IIIB and IIIC is potentially risky, and canal reaming did not increase the risk of complication for open tibial fractures treated with IMN.

Economic evaluation of Avonex (interferon beta-Ia) in patients following a single demyelinating event.

PubMed

Iskedjian, Michael; Walker, John H; Gray, Trevor; Vicente, Colin; Einarson, Thomas R; Gehshan, Adel

2005-10-01

Interferon beta-Ia (Avonex) 30 microg, intramuscular (i.m.), once weekly is efficacious in delaying clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) following a single demyelinating event (SDE). This study determined the cost effectiveness of Avonex compared to current treatment in delaying the onset of CDMS. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA) were performed from Ministry of Health (MoH) and societal perspectives. For CEA, the outcome of interest was time spent in the pre-CDMS state, termed monosymptomatic life years (MLY) gained. For CUA, the outcome was quality-adjusted monosymptomatic life years (QAMLY) gained. A Markov model was developed with transitional probabilities and utilities derived from the literature. Costs were reported in 2002 Canadian dollars. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 5%. The time horizon was 12 years for the CEA, and 15 years for the CUA. All uncertainties were tested via univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses. In the CEA, the incremental cost of Avonex per ILYgained was $53110 and $44789 from MoH and societal perspectives, respectively. In the CUA, the incremental cost of Avonex per QAMLY gained was $227586 and $189286 from MoH and societal perspectives, respectively. Both models were sensitive to the probability of progressing to CDMS and the analytical time horizon. The CUA was sensitive to the utilities value. Avonex may be considered as a reasonably cost-effective approach to treatment of patients experiencing an SDE In addition, the overall incremental cost-effectiveness profile of Avonex improves if treatment is initiated in pre-CDMS rather than waiting until CDMS.

Lower physical activity is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus beyond traditional risk factors: the Japanese Elderly Diabetes Intervention Trial.

PubMed

Iijima, Katsuya; Iimuro, Satoshi; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Ohashi, Yasuo; Sakurai, Takashi; Umegaki, Hiroyuki; Araki, Atsushi; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Ito, Hideki

2012-04-01

It is well known that a decline in physical activity is associated with lifestyle-related diseases including cardiovascular (CV) events. However, little is known about the association between physical activity and CV events in elderly patients, because recent accumulating reports have mainly dealt with middle-aged populations. In this study, we investigated the correlation between physical activity and CV events in Japanese elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A total of 938 Japanese elderly patients with T2DM (447 men and 491 women, mean age 71.9 years) enrolled (2000-2002) in the Japanese Elderly Diabetes Intervention Trial (J-EDIT) were used in this study. Physical activity consisting of three components, work, sports and leisure-time, of their lifestyle was evaluated using the Baecke questionnaire at baseline. Total activity score (TAS) as a sum of each activity score was divided into four quartiles (Q1 to Q4). During a follow-up period of 65.2 months, 165 events and 71 deaths in total occurred. Higher TAS grade was associated with reduced risk of all events (hazard ratios: 0.82, 0.77 and 0.54 in Q2, Q3 and Q4, respectively) with statistical significance. Even after multivariate adjustment for covariates, higher TAS grade was a strong predictor of all events, and the prediction by TAS of cerebrovascular events was more effective than that of cardiac events. In contrast, all-cause mortality gradually decreased according to TAS grade; however, no statistical significance was found. Among the four grades of TAS, no significant change in several parameters, such as profiles of lipid and glucose metabolism, blood pressure, physical measurements, cognitive function and depression scale, was found throughout the follow-up period, suggesting that the higher level of physical activity itself was associated with the risk reduction of primary events. Lower physical activity is a strong and independent predictor of all CV events in the elderly with T2DM beyond traditional risk factors. In addition to strict management of each atherosclerotic risk factor, engagement with patients to augment and maintain the level of physical activity in their lifestyle is also essential in clinical practice. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Prediction of Symptomatic Embolism in Filipinos With Infective Endocarditis Using the Embolic Risk French Calculator

PubMed Central

Aherrera, Jaime Alfonso M.; Abola, Maria Teresa B.; Balabagno, Maria Margarita O.; Abrahan, Lauro L.; Magno, Jose Donato A.; Reganit, Paul Ferdinand M.; Punzalan, Felix Eduardo R.

2016-01-01

Background Cardioembolic events are life-threatening complications of infective endocarditis (IE). The embolic risk French calculator estimates the embolic risk in IE computed on admission. Variables in this tool include age, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, prior embolism, vegetation length, and Staphylococcus aureus on culture. A computed risk of > 7% was considered high in the development of this tool. Knowledge of this risk applied in our local setting is important to guide clinicians in preventing such catastrophic complications. Among patients with IE, we aim to determine the efficacy of the embolic risk French calculator, using a computed score of > 7%, in predicting major embolic events. Methods All adults admitted from 2013 to 2016 with definite IE were included. The risk for embolic events was computed on admission. All were monitored for the duration of admission for the occurrence of the primary outcome (any major embolic event: arterial emboli, intracranial hemorrhage, pulmonary infarcts, or aneurysms). Secondary outcomes were: 1) composite of death and embolic events; and 2) death from any cause. Results Eighty-seven adults with definite IE were included. Majority had a valvular heart disease and preserved ejection fraction (EF). The mitral valve was most commonly involved. Embolic events occurred in 25 (29%). Multivariate analysis identified a high embolic score > 7% (relative risk (RR): 15.12, P < 0.001), vegetation area ≥ 18 mm2 (RR: 6.39, P < 0.01), and a prior embolism (RR: 5.18, P = 0.018) to be independent predictors of embolic events. For the composite of embolic events and death, independent predictors include a high score of > 7% (RR: 13.56, P < 0.001) and a prior embolus (RR: 13.75, P = 0.002). Independent predictors of death were a high score > 7% (RR: 6.20, P = 0.003) and EF ≤ 45% (RR: 9.91, P = 0.004). Conclusion Cardioembolic events are more prevalent in our study compared to previous data. The embolic risk French calculator is a useful tool to estimate and predict risk for embolic events and in-hospital mortality. The risk of developing embolic events should be weighed against the risks of early preventive cardiac surgery, as to institute timely and appropriate management. PMID:28197281

Adverse cardiac events in 56,000 orthopaedic trauma patients: Does anatomic area make a difference?

PubMed

Lee, Adam K; Dodd, Ashley C; Lakomkin, Nikita; Yarlagadda, Mahesh; Jahangir, A Alex; Collinge, Cory A; Sethi, Manish K

2016-08-01

Postoperative cardiac events in orthopaedic trauma patients constitute severe morbidity and mortality. It is therefore increasingly important to determine patient risk factors that are predictive of postoperative myocardial infarctions and cardiac arrests. This study sought to assess if there is an association between anatomic area and cardiac complications in the orthopaedic trauma patient. From 2006-2013, a total of 361,402 orthopaedic patients were identified in the NSQIP database using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. Of these, 56,336 (15.6%) patients were identified as orthopaedic trauma patients broken down by anatomic region: 11,905 (21.1%) upper extremity patients (UE), 29,009 (51.5%) hip/pelvis patients (HP), and 15,422 (27.4%) lower extremity patients (LE) using CPT codes. Patients were defined as having adverse cardiac events if they developed myocardial infarctions or cardiac arrests within 30days after surgery. Chi-squared analysis was used to determine if there was an association between anatomic area and rates of cardiac events. Multivariate logistical analysis was used with over 40 patient characteristics including age, gender, history of cardiac disease, and anatomic region as independent predictors to determine whether anatomic area significantly predicted the development of cardiac complications. There were significant differences in baseline demographics among the three groups: HP patients had the greatest average age (77.6 years) compared to 54.8 years for UE patients and 54.1 years in LE patients (p<0.001). HP patients also had the highest average ASA score (3.0) (p<0.001). There was a significant difference in adverse cardiac events based on anatomic area: 0.27% (32/11,905) UE patients developed cardiac complications compared to 2.15% (623/29,009) HP patients and 0.61% (94/15,422) LE patients. After multivariate analysis, HP patients were significantly more likely to develop cardiac complications compared to both UE patients (OR: 6.377, p=0.014) and LE patients (OR: 2.766, p=0.009). There is a significant difference in adverse cardiac events following orthopaedic trauma based on anatomic region. Hip/Pelvis surgery appeared to be a significant risk factor in developing an adverse cardiac event. Further studies should investigate why hip/pelvic patients are at a higher risk of adverse cardiac events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of dominant hydrologic events: the role of spatial, temporal and climatic forces in generating the greatest sediment loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squires, A. L.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E. S.

2013-12-01

Soil erosion and the ensuing elevated sediment loads in surface water bodies result in impaired water quality and unsuitable habitat for salmonid species and other cold water biota. Increased sediment loads also relate to high nutrient levels in streams at downstream locations. Identification of the most sensitive factors leading to major sediment loads is useful in selection and placement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs), especially those that are management oriented such as nutrient management plans and the timing of tillage. Many BMPs work well for average storms but do not achieve desired results during the large storms, when hydrologically sensitive areas contribute the greatest amount of runoff and erosion. Research has shown that the majority of sediment loads in streams and rivers occur during a small proportion of the year, specifically during a few large storm events. In this research, we look beyond the conclusion that large events contribute the majority of sediment loads by investigating the driving forces behind each event. Long-term monitoring data were used from two monitoring stations in a small, mixed land use watershed in northern Idaho. The upper monitoring station is below mostly agricultural land use, and the lower monitoring station is below mostly urban land use. The watershed in question, Paradise Creek in Idaho, is the subject of a sediment TMDL which has not yet been consistently achieved and is currently up for review by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality. We statistically analyzed the influence of multiple interacting variables on the magnitude of sediment loads during hydrologic events from 2002 to 2012. Spatial (i.e., above and below monitoring station data), temporal (i.e., seasonality), and climatic effects (i.e., precipitation, snowfall and snow melt) were examined, as well as the presence of frozen soils and the timing of events relative to each other. We hypothesized that (1) the events with the greatest sediment loads are flow-limited but occur after mass-limited events, (2) an event that is of long duration and is slow to peak, especially during frozen soil conditions, will contribute the greatest sediment load in a given year, and (3) urban land use generates greater sediment loads than rural land use. Multivariate analysis determined which factors lead to major sediment loads. Our presentation will focus on synthesizing the interacting variables and conditions that tend to result in dominant hydrologic events and suggestions for watershed management. This research will contribute to a more accurate assessment of the hydrology and water quality in the watershed to aid in improvement of the TMDL.

Postoperative Stiffness Requiring Manipulation Under Anesthesia Is Significantly Reduced After Simultaneous Versus Staged Bilateral Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Meehan, John P; Monazzam, Shafagh; Miles, Troy; Danielsen, Beate; White, Richard H

2017-12-20

For patients with symptomatic bilateral knee arthritis, it is unknown whether the risk of developing stiffness requiring manipulation under anesthesia postoperatively is higher or lower for those undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA) compared with those having staged bilateral TKA. Therefore, we undertook this study to evaluate the risk of requiring manipulation under anesthesia in staged versus simultaneous bilateral TKA as well as patients undergoing unilateral TKA. We utilized the California Patient Discharge Database, which is linked with the California Emergency Department, Ambulatory Surgery, and master death file databases. Using a literature-based estimate of the number of patients who failed to undergo the second stage of a staged bilateral TKA, replacement cases were randomly selected from patients who had unilateral TKA and were matched on 8 clinical characteristics of the patients who had staged bilateral TKA. Hierarchical multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the risk-adjusted odds of manipulation in patients undergoing unilateral TKA, staged bilateral TKA, and simultaneous bilateral TKA using yearly hospital TKA volume as a random effect. Adjustment was made to allow fair comparison of the outcome at 90 and 180 days of follow-up after staged compared with simultaneous bilateral TKA. During the time period from 2005 through 2013, the cumulative incidence of manipulation within 90 days was 2.14% for unilateral TKA (4,398 events per 205,744 patients), 2.11% for staged bilateral TKA (724 events per 34,352 patients), and 1.62% for simultaneous bilateral TKA (195 events per 12,013 patients). At 180 days of complete follow-up, the cumulative incidence of manipulation was 3.07% after unilateral TKA (6,313 events per 205,649 patients), 2.89% after staged bilateral TKAs (957 events per 33,169 patients), and 2.29% after simultaneous bilateral TKA (267 events per 11,653 patients). With multivariate analyses used to adjust for relevant risk factors, the 90-day odds ratio (OR) of undergoing manipulation after simultaneous bilateral TKA was significantly lower than that for unilateral TKA (OR = 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57 to 0.86) and staged bilateral TKA (OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.90). Similarly, at 180 days, the odds of undergoing manipulation were significantly lower after simultaneous bilateral TKA than after both unilateral TKA (OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.84) and staged bilateral TKA (OR = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.93). The frequency of manipulation was significantly associated with younger age, fewer comorbidities, black race, and the absence of obesity. Although the ORs were small (close to 1), simultaneous bilateral TKA had a significantly decreased rate of stiffness requiring manipulation under anesthesia at 90 days and 180 days after knee replacement compared with that after staged bilateral TKA and unilateral TKA. Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

A flexible model for multivariate interval-censored survival times with complex correlation structure.

PubMed

Falcaro, Milena; Pickles, Andrew

2007-02-10

We focus on the analysis of multivariate survival times with highly structured interdependency and subject to interval censoring. Such data are common in developmental genetics and genetic epidemiology. We propose a flexible mixed probit model that deals naturally with complex but uninformative censoring. The recorded ages of onset are treated as possibly censored ordinal outcomes with the interval censoring mechanism seen as arising from a coarsened measurement of a continuous variable observed as falling between subject-specific thresholds. This bypasses the requirement for the failure times to be observed as falling into non-overlapping intervals. The assumption of a normal age-of-onset distribution of the standard probit model is relaxed by embedding within it a multivariate Box-Cox transformation whose parameters are jointly estimated with the other parameters of the model. Complex decompositions of the underlying multivariate normal covariance matrix of the transformed ages of onset become possible. The new methodology is here applied to a multivariate study of the ages of first use of tobacco and first consumption of alcohol without parental permission in twins. The proposed model allows estimation of the genetic and environmental effects that are shared by both of these risk behaviours as well as those that are specific. 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring multiple spike train synchrony.

PubMed

Kreuz, Thomas; Chicharro, Daniel; Andrzejak, Ralph G; Haas, Julie S; Abarbanel, Henry D I

2009-10-15

Measures of multiple spike train synchrony are essential in order to study issues such as spike timing reliability, network synchronization, and neuronal coding. These measures can broadly be divided in multivariate measures and averages over bivariate measures. One of the most recent bivariate approaches, the ISI-distance, employs the ratio of instantaneous interspike intervals (ISIs). In this study we propose two extensions of the ISI-distance, the straightforward averaged bivariate ISI-distance and the multivariate ISI-diversity based on the coefficient of variation. Like the original measure these extensions combine many properties desirable in applications to real data. In particular, they are parameter-free, time scale independent, and easy to visualize in a time-resolved manner, as we illustrate with in vitro recordings from a cortical neuron. Using a simulated network of Hindemarsh-Rose neurons as a controlled configuration we compare the performance of our methods in distinguishing different levels of multi-neuron spike train synchrony to the performance of six other previously published measures. We show and explain why the averaged bivariate measures perform better than the multivariate ones and why the multivariate ISI-diversity is the best performer among the multivariate methods. Finally, in a comparison against standard methods that rely on moving window estimates, we use single-unit monkey data to demonstrate the advantages of the instantaneous nature of our methods.

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity predicts decline in renal function and cardiovascular events in early stages of chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Yoon, Hye Eun; Shin, Dong Il; Kim, Sung Jun; Koh, Eun Sil; Hwang, Hyeon Seok; Chung, Sungjin; Shin, Seok Joon

2013-01-01

In this study, we investigated the predictive capacity of the brachial-ankle aortic pulse wave velocity (baPWV), a marker of arterial stiffness, for the decline in renal function and for cardiovascular events in the early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Two hundred forty-one patients who underwent a comprehensive check-up were included and were divided into two groups according to their estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR): patients with CKD categories G2, G3a and G3b (30 ≤ eGFR < 90 ml/min/1.73m(2), eGFR < 90 group; n=117) and those with eGFR ≥ 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (eGFR ≥ 90 group; n=124). The change in renal function, the eGFR change, was determined by the slope of eGFR against time. We analysed whether baPWV was associated with eGFR change or predicted cardiovascular events. baPWV was independently associated with eGFR change in a multivariate analysis of the total patients (β=-0.011, p=0.011) and remained significantly associated with eGFR change in a subgroup analysis of the eGFR < 90 group (β=-0.015, p=0.035). baPWV was independently associated with cardiovascular events (odds ratio=1.002, p=0.048) in the eGFR < 90 group, but not in the eGFR ≥ 90 group. The receiver operative characteristic curve analysis showed that 1,568 cm/sec was the cut-off value of baPWV for predicting CV events in the eGFR < 90 group (area under curve=0.691, p=0.03) CONCLUSIONS: In patients with early stages of CKD, baPWV was independently associated with the decline in renal function and short-term cardiovascular events.

The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.

PubMed

Singh, Pushpendra; Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

2017-03-01

for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of 'Fourier intrinsic band functions' (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time-frequency-energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

Left Ventricular Structure and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Framingham Heart Study Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Study.

PubMed

Tsao, Connie W; Gona, Philimon N; Salton, Carol J; Chuang, Michael L; Levy, Daniel; Manning, Warren J; O'Donnell, Christopher J

2015-09-15

Elevated left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and concentric left ventricular (LV) remodeling are related to adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The predictive utility of LV concentric remodeling and LV mass in the prediction of CVD events is not well characterized. Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort members without prevalent CVD (n=1715, 50% men, aged 65±9 years) underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance for LVMI and geometry (2002-2006) and were prospectively followed for incident CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, heart failure, stroke) or CVD death. Over 13 808 person-years of follow-up (median 8.4, range 0.0 to 10.5 years), 85 CVD events occurred. In multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, each 10-g/m(2) increment in LVMI and each 0.1 unit in relative wall thickness was associated with 33% and 59% increased risk for CVD, respectively (P=0.004 and P=0.009, respectively). The association between LV mass/LV end-diastolic volume and incident CVD was borderline significant (P=0.053). Multivariable-adjusted risk reclassification models showed a modest improvement in CVD risk prediction with the incorporation of cardiovascular magnetic resonance LVMI and measures of LV concentricity (C-statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.78] for the model with traditional risk factors only, improved to 0.74 [95% CI 0.68 to 0.80] for the risk factor model additionally including LVMI and relative wall thickness). Among adults free of prevalent CVD in the community, greater LVMI and LV concentric hypertrophy are associated with a marked increase in adverse incident CVD events. The potential benefit of aggressive primary prevention to modify LV mass and geometry in these adults requires further investigation. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Systemic lupus erythematosus in a multiethnic cohort (LUMINA): XXVIII. Factors predictive of thrombotic events.

PubMed

Ho, K T; Ahn, C W; Alarcón, G S; Baethge, B A; Tan, F K; Roseman, J; Bastian, H M; Fessler, B J; McGwin, G; Vilá, L M; Calvo-Alén, J; Reveille, J D

2005-10-01

To determine the relationship between the presence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies, hydroxychloroquine use and the occurrence of thrombotic events in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Four hundred and forty-two SLE patients from the LUMINA (Lupus in Minorities: Nature vs Nurture) cohort, a multiethnic (Hispanics from Texas, n = 99 and Puerto Rico, n = 36; African Americans, n = 172; and Caucasians, n = 135) cohort, were studied by generalized estimating equation (GEE) to determine the relationship between antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies (measured as IgG and IgM aPL antibodies and/or the lupus anticoagulant) at enrolment or historically prior to enrolment, hydroxychloroquine use (ever) and the occurrence of thrombotic (central and/or peripheral, arterial and/or venous) events after adjusting for known and possible confounders [socioeconomic-demographic features, smoking, disease activity and damage, serum cholesterol levels, anti-oxidized low-density lipoprotein IgG and IgM antibodies, and high-sensitivity (hs) C-reactive protein]. Postanalysis correlation between aPL and anticardiolipin (aCL) assays was attempted by performing aCL assays on random samples of patients whose aPL status was known. A number of clinical variables were significant in the univariable analyses; however, in the multivariable GEE analyses, only smoking [odds ratio (OR) 2.777, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.317-5.852] and disease activity as measured by the SLAM (Systemic Lupus Activity Measure) (OR 1.099; 95% CI 1.053-1.147) were significant. In particular, hydroxychloroquine use, which appeared to be protective against thrombotic events in the univariable analyses, was not retained in the multivariable analyses. aPL antibodies were not significant in either analysis. Few additional aPL-positive patients emerged from the validation study. Smoking and disease activity emerged as important determinants in the occurrence of thrombotic events in our patients. Comprehensive treatment strategies should be directed to both smoking cessation and control of disease activity in patients with SLE.

Validation of cross-sectional time series and multivariate adaptive regression splines models for the prediction of energy expenditure in children and adolescents using doubly labeled water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate, nonintrusive, and inexpensive techniques are needed to measure energy expenditure (EE) in free-living populations. Our primary aim in this study was to validate cross-sectional time series (CSTS) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models based on observable participant cha...

Hot spots of multivariate extreme anomalies in Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flach, M.; Sippel, S.; Bodesheim, P.; Brenning, A.; Denzler, J.; Gans, F.; Guanche, Y.; Reichstein, M.; Rodner, E.; Mahecha, M. D.

2016-12-01

Anomalies in Earth observations might indicate data quality issues, extremes or the change of underlying processes within a highly multivariate system. Thus, considering the multivariate constellation of variables for extreme detection yields crucial additional information over conventional univariate approaches. We highlight areas in which multivariate extreme anomalies are more likely to occur, i.e. hot spots of extremes in global atmospheric Earth observations that impact the Biosphere. In addition, we present the year of the most unusual multivariate extreme between 2001 and 2013 and show that these coincide with well known high impact extremes. Technically speaking, we account for multivariate extremes by using three sophisticated algorithms adapted from computer science applications. Namely an ensemble of the k-nearest neighbours mean distance, a kernel density estimation and an approach based on recurrences is used. However, the impact of atmosphere extremes on the Biosphere might largely depend on what is considered to be normal, i.e. the shape of the mean seasonal cycle and its inter-annual variability. We identify regions with similar mean seasonality by means of dimensionality reduction in order to estimate in each region both the `normal' variance and robust thresholds for detecting the extremes. In addition, we account for challenges like heteroscedasticity in Northern latitudes. Apart from hot spot areas, those anomalies in the atmosphere time series are of particular interest, which can only be detected by a multivariate approach but not by a simple univariate approach. Such an anomalous constellation of atmosphere variables is of interest if it impacts the Biosphere. The multivariate constellation of such an anomalous part of a time series is shown in one case study indicating that multivariate anomaly detection can provide novel insights into Earth observations.

Multivariate stochastic analysis for Monthly hydrological time series at Cuyahoga River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

zhang, L.

2011-12-01

Copula has become a very powerful statistic and stochastic methodology in case of the multivariate analysis in Environmental and Water resources Engineering. In recent years, the popular one-parameter Archimedean copulas, e.g. Gumbel-Houggard copula, Cook-Johnson copula, Frank copula, the meta-elliptical copula, e.g. Gaussian Copula, Student-T copula, etc. have been applied in multivariate hydrological analyses, e.g. multivariate rainfall (rainfall intensity, duration and depth), flood (peak discharge, duration and volume), and drought analyses (drought length, mean and minimum SPI values, and drought mean areal extent). Copula has also been applied in the flood frequency analysis at the confluences of river systems by taking into account the dependence among upstream gauge stations rather than by using the hydrological routing technique. In most of the studies above, the annual time series have been considered as stationary signal which the time series have been assumed as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. But in reality, hydrological time series, especially the daily and monthly hydrological time series, cannot be considered as i.i.d. random variables due to the periodicity existed in the data structure. Also, the stationary assumption is also under question due to the Climate Change and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change in the fast years. To this end, it is necessary to revaluate the classic approach for the study of hydrological time series by relaxing the stationary assumption by the use of nonstationary approach. Also as to the study of the dependence structure for the hydrological time series, the assumption of same type of univariate distribution also needs to be relaxed by adopting the copula theory. In this paper, the univariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the nonstationary time series analysis approach. The dependence structure of the multivariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the copula theory. As to the parameter estimation, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) will be applied. To illustrate the method, the univariate time series model and the dependence structure will be determined and tested using the monthly discharge time series of Cuyahoga River Basin.

Fear of Terrorism and Preparedness in New York City 2 Years After the Attacks: Implications for Disaster Planning and Research

PubMed Central

Boscarino, Joseph A.; Adams, Richard E.; Figley, Charles R.; Galea, Sandro; Foa, Edna B.

2009-01-01

Objectives To help improve disaster planning and research, we studied psychosocial predictors of terrorism fear and preparedness among New York City residents after the World Trade Center disaster (WTCD). Method We conducted a random cross-sectional survey of 1,681 adults interviewed 2 years after the WTCD. Participants were living in New York City at the time of the attack and exposed to ongoing terrorist threats. Results We found 44.9 percent (95% confidence interval [CI] = 41.9−47.9) of residents were concerned about future attacks and 16.9 percent (95% CI = 14.7−19.3) reported a fear level of “10” on a 10-point analog scale. Furthermore, 14.8 percent (95% CI = 12.8−17.0) reported they had made some plans for a future attack, a significant increase from the previous year. In addition, although 42.6 percent (95% CI = 39.6−45.7) indicated that they would likely wait for evacuation instructions following a chemical, biological, or nuclear attack, 34.4 percent (95% CI = 31.5−37.3) reported they would evacuate immediately against official advice. Predictors of high terrorism fear in a multivariate model included Hispanic ethnicity (odds ratio [OR] = 2.0, P = .006), lower education (OR = 4.4, P < .001, and OR = 3.7, P < .001, respectively, for nonhigh school and high school graduates, compared with college graduates), being exposed to stressful life events (OR = 1.6, P = .048), having current posttraumatic stress disorder (3.1, P < .001), having a fear of death (OR = 2.5, P = .002), and reporting a likelihood of fleeing an attack against advice (OR = 1.5, P = .034). The best predictors of preparedness in a multivariate model was being between 30 to 64 years old (30−44 years old, OR = 2.6, P = .001; 45−64 yeas old, OR = 1.8, P = .03, respectively, compared with 18−29 years old), having higher exposure to the WTCD (moderate exposure, OR = 1.7, P = .05; high exposure, OR = 2.4, P = .002; very high exposure, OR = 4.1, P < .001), respectively, compared with no/little WTCD exposure), and having greater exposure to other lifetime traumatic events (high traumatic event exposure, OR = 2.1, P = .005, compared with no exposure). Conclusion Our study suggests that among those exposed to ongoing terrorism threats, terrorism fear and preparedness were related to socioeconomic factors, mental health status, terrorism exposure levels, and exposure to stressful life events. PMID:17041297

Increased red blood cell transfusions are associated with worsening outcomes in pediatric heart transplant patients.

PubMed

Howard-Quijano, Kimberly; Schwarzenberger, Johanna C; Scovotti, Jennifer C; Alejos, Alexandra; Ngo, Jason; Gornbein, Jeffrey; Mahajan, Aman

2013-06-01

Red blood cell (RBC) transfusions are associated with increased morbidity. Children receiving heart transplants constitute a unique group of patients due to their risk factors. Although previous studies in nontransplant patients have focused primarily on the effects of postoperative blood transfusions, a significant exposure to blood occurs during the intraoperative period, and a larger percentage of heart transplant patients require intraoperative blood transfusions when compared with general cardiac surgery patients. We investigated the relationship between clinical outcomes and the amount of blood transfused both during and after heart transplantation. We hypothesized that larger amounts of RBC transfusions are associated with worsening clinical outcomes in pediatric heart transplant patients. A database comprising 108 pediatric patients undergoing heart transplantation from 2004 to 2010 was queried. Preoperative and postoperative clinical risk factors, including the amount of blood transfused intraoperatively and 48 hours postoperatively, were analyzed. The outcome measures were length of hospital stay, duration of tracheal intubation, inotrope score, and major adverse events. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to control for simultaneous risk factors and determine outcomes in which the amount of blood transfused was an independent risk factor. Ninety-four patients with complete datasets were included in the final analysis. Eighty-eight percent received RBC transfusions, with a median transfusion amount of 38.7 mL/kg. A multivariate analysis correcting for 8 covariate risk factors, including the Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation, age, weight, United Network for Organ Sharing status, warm and cold ischemia time, repeat sternotomy, and pretransplant hematocrit, showed RBC transfusions were independently associated with increased length of intensive care unit stay (means ratio = 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.76; P = 0.03), and increased inotrope score in the first postoperative 24 hour (mean ratio = 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.52; P = 0.04). Patients suffering major adverse events received significantly larger median amounts of blood RBC transfusions (P = 0.002). Transfusions >60 mL/kg were also associated with increased risk of major adverse events (accuracy 76%) including postoperative sepsis, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, open chest, dialysis, and graft failure. The majority of pediatric patients undergoing orthotropic heart transplantation receive RBC transfusions, with the largest amount transfused in the operating room. Escalating amounts of RBC transfusions are independently associated with increased length of intensive care unit stay, inotrope scores, and major adverse events. Since heart allografts are a limited resource, improvement in the blood transfusion and conservation practices can enhance clinical outcomes in pediatric heart transplant patients.

Selected CNS Outcomes Among INSTI Antiretrovirals

PubMed Central

Wohl, David; Mills, Anthony; Mera, Robertino; Piontkowsky, David

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Higher rates of neuropsychiatric events among patients on dolutegravir (DTG) compared with other integrase inhibitors (INSTIs) have been reported from clinic cohorts and one blinded trial. We compared select neurological and psychiatric events in a large sample of patients treated with different INSTIs. Methods The Quintiles IMS database, which includes pharmacy and medical claims records, was examined for HIV infected patients treated from 2006 to 2016 with DTG (TIVICAY/TRIUMEQ), elvitegravir (EVG, STRIBILD), or raltegravir (RAL, ISENTRESS). The dependent variable outcomes were insomnia/sleep disturbance and depression. A propensity score was created to adjust for variables associated with treatment with a particular INSTI including age, gender, year of initial INSTI exposure, and enrollment time. Multivariate Poisson mixed models were used to generate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Results Records for 54,151 distinct HIV-infected patients treated with DTG, EVG, or RAL were identified. In the multivariate model the rate of insomnia/sleep disturbance events was significantly higher for patients treated with DTG vs. EVG (IRR 1.21 [95% CI 1.09–1.33, P < 0.001]), but was not significantly different when comparing DTG to RAL (IRR 1.04 [95% CI 0.94–1.14, P = 0.459]). Likewise, the rate of incident depression was significantly higher for patients treated with DTG vs. EVG (IRR 1.18 [95% CI 1.09–1.27, P < 0.001], but not when comparing DTG to RAL (IRR 0.93 [95% CI 0.87 – 1.01, P = 0.068]). Conclusion In this analysis using a large healthcare database, significantly higher adjusted rates of both incident insomnia/sleep disturbances (21% more) and depression (18% more) were found among patients treated with DTG compared with EVG. In contrast, a significant difference in the rates of either outcome was not observed when comparing DTG and RAL. Further studies are warranted to determine the risk of neuropsychiatric events in patients treated with different INSTIs. Disclosures D. Wohl, Gilead Sciences: Consultant and Investigator, Consulting fee and Research grant; Viiv: Consultant and Investigator, Consulting fee and Research grant; Janssen: Consultant, Consulting fee; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultant, Consulting fee; A. Mills, Gilead Sciences: Consultant, Investigator and Speaker’s Bureau, Consulting fee, Research grant and Speaker honorarium; Viiv: Consultant and Investigator, Consulting fee and Research grant; Merck: Consultant, Investigator and Speaker’s Bureau, Consulting fee, Research grant and Speaker honorarium; Janssen: Investigator, Research grant; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Investigator, Research grant; Sangamo Bio Sciences: Investigator, Research grant; R. Mera, Gilead Sciences: Employee and Shareholder, Salary; D. Piontkowsky, Gilead Sciences: Employee and Shareholder, Salary

Five-year change in morale is associated with negative life events in very old age.

PubMed

Näsman, Marina; Niklasson, Johan; Saarela, Jan; Nygård, Mikael; Olofsson, Birgitta; Conradsson, Mia; Lövheim, Hugo; Gustafson, Yngve; Nyqvist, Fredrica

2017-10-27

The objectives were to study changes in morale in individuals 85 years and older, and to assess the effect of negative life events on morale over a five-year follow-up period. The present study is based on longitudinal data from the Umeå85+/GERDA-study, including individuals 85 years and older at baseline (n = 204). Morale was measured with the Philadelphia Geriatric Center Morale Scale (PGCMS). Negative life events were assessed using an index including 13 negative life events occurring during the follow-up period. Linear regression was used for the multivariate analyses. The majority of the sample (69.1%) had no significant changes in morale during the five-year follow-up. However, the accumulation of negative life events was significantly associated with a greater decrease in PGCMS. A higher baseline PGCMS score did not attenuate the adverse effect negative life events had on morale. Morale seemed to be mainly stable in a five-year follow-up of very old people. It seems, nonetheless, that individuals are affected by negative life events, regardless of level of morale. Preventing negative life events and supporting individuals who experience multiple negative life events could have important implications for the care of very old people.

Power analysis for multivariate and repeated measures designs: a flexible approach using the SPSS MANOVA procedure.

PubMed

D'Amico, E J; Neilands, T B; Zambarano, R

2001-11-01

Although power analysis is an important component in the planning and implementation of research designs, it is often ignored. Computer programs for performing power analysis are available, but most have limitations, particularly for complex multivariate designs. An SPSS procedure is presented that can be used for calculating power for univariate, multivariate, and repeated measures models with and without time-varying and time-constant covariates. Three examples provide a framework for calculating power via this method: an ANCOVA, a MANOVA, and a repeated measures ANOVA with two or more groups. The benefits and limitations of this procedure are discussed.

Autologous Doping with Cryopreserved Red Blood Cells – Effects on Physical Performance and Detection by Multivariate Statistics

PubMed Central

Malm, Christer B.; Khoo, Nelson S.; Granlund, Irene; Lindstedt, Emilia; Hult, Andreas

2016-01-01

The discovery of erythropoietin (EPO) simplified blood doping in sports, but improved detection methods, for EPO has forced cheating athletes to return to blood transfusion. Autologous blood transfusion with cryopreserved red blood cells (RBCs) is the method of choice, because no valid method exists to accurately detect such event. In endurance sports, it can be estimated that elite athletes improve performance by up to 3% with blood doping, regardless of method. Valid detection methods for autologous blood doping is important to maintain credibility of athletic performances. Recreational male (N = 27) and female (N = 11) athletes served as Transfusion (N = 28) and Control (N = 10) subjects in two different transfusion settings. Hematological variables and physical performance were measured before donation of 450 or 900 mL whole blood, and until four weeks after re-infusion of the cryopreserved RBC fraction. Blood was analyzed for transferrin, iron, Hb, EVF, MCV, MCHC, reticulocytes, leucocytes and EPO. Repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and pattern recognition using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Orthogonal Projections of Latent Structures (OPLS) discriminant analysis (DA) investigated differences between Control and Transfusion groups over time. Significant increase in performance (15 ± 8%) and VO2max (17 ± 10%) (mean ± SD) could be measured 48 h after RBC re-infusion, and remained increased for up to four weeks in some subjects. In total, 533 blood samples were included in the study (Clean = 220, Transfused = 313). In response to blood transfusion, the largest change in hematological variables occurred 48 h after blood donation, when Control and Transfused groups could be separated with OPLS-DA (R2 = 0.76/Q2 = 0.59). RBC re-infusion resulted in the best model (R2 = 0.40/Q2 = 0.10) at the first sampling point (48 h), predicting one false positive and one false negative. Over all, a 25% and 86% false positives ratio was achieved in two separate trials. In conclusions, autologous re-infusion of RBCs increased VO2max and performance as hypothesized, but hematological profiling by multivariate statistics could not reach the WADA stipulated false positive ratio of <0.001% at any time point investigated. A majority of samples remained within limits of normal individual variation at all times. PMID:27284981

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

A time domain frequency-selective multivariate Granger causality approach.

PubMed

Leistritz, Lutz; Witte, Herbert

2016-08-01

The investigation of effective connectivity is one of the major topics in computational neuroscience to understand the interaction between spatially distributed neuronal units of the brain. Thus, a wide variety of methods has been developed during the last decades to investigate functional and effective connectivity in multivariate systems. Their spectrum ranges from model-based to model-free approaches with a clear separation into time and frequency range methods. We present in this simulation study a novel time domain approach based on Granger's principle of predictability, which allows frequency-selective considerations of directed interactions. It is based on a comparison of prediction errors of multivariate autoregressive models fitted to systematically modified time series. These modifications are based on signal decompositions, which enable a targeted cancellation of specific signal components with specific spectral properties. Depending on the embedded signal decomposition method, a frequency-selective or data-driven signal-adaptive Granger Causality Index may be derived.

Missing data may lead to changes in hip fracture database studies: a study of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program.

PubMed

Basques, B A; McLynn, R P; Lukasiewicz, A M; Samuel, A M; Bohl, D D; Grauer, J N

2018-02-01

The aims of this study were to characterize the frequency of missing data in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database and to determine how missing data can influence the results of studies dealing with elderly patients with a fracture of the hip. Patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip between 2005 and 2013 were identified from the NSQIP database and the percentage of missing data was noted for demographics, comorbidities and laboratory values. These variables were tested for association with 'any adverse event' using multivariate regressions based on common ways of handling missing data. A total of 26 066 patients were identified. The rate of missing data was up to 77.9% for many variables. Multivariate regressions comparing three methods of handling missing data found different risk factors for postoperative adverse events. Only seven of 35 identified risk factors (20%) were common to all three analyses. Missing data is an important issue in national database studies that researchers must consider when evaluating such investigations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:226-32. ©2018 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Causality networks from multivariate time series and application to epilepsy.

PubMed

Siggiridou, Elsa; Koutlis, Christos; Tsimpiris, Alkiviadis; Kimiskidis, Vasilios K; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris

2015-08-01

Granger causality and variants of this concept allow the study of complex dynamical systems as networks constructed from multivariate time series. In this work, a large number of Granger causality measures used to form causality networks from multivariate time series are assessed. For this, realizations on high dimensional coupled dynamical systems are considered and the performance of the Granger causality measures is evaluated, seeking for the measures that form networks closest to the true network of the dynamical system. In particular, the comparison focuses on Granger causality measures that reduce the state space dimension when many variables are observed. Further, the linear and nonlinear Granger causality measures of dimension reduction are compared to a standard Granger causality measure on electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings containing episodes of epileptiform discharges.

A socioecological model of posttraumatic stress among Australian midwives.

PubMed

Leinweber, Julia; Creedy, Debra K; Rowe, Heather; Gamble, Jenny

2017-02-01

to develop a comprehensive model of personal, trauma event-related and workplace-related risk factors for posttraumatic stress subsequent to witnessing birth trauma among Australian midwives. a descriptive, cross-sectional design was used. members of the Australian College of Midwives were invited to complete an online survey. the survey included items about witnessing a traumatic birth event and previous experiences of life trauma. Trauma symptoms were assessed with the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Scale Self-Report measure. Empathy was assessed with the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. Decision authority and psychological demand in the workplace were measured with the Job Content Questionnaire. Variables that showed a significant univariate association with probable posttraumatic stress disorder were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. 601 completed survey responses were analysed. The multivariable model was statistically significant and explained 27.7% (Nagelkerke R square) of the variance in posttraumatic stress symptoms and correctly classified 84.1% of cases. Odds ratios indicated that intention to leave the profession, a peritraumatic reaction of horror, peritraumatic feelings of guilt, and a personal traumatic birth experience were strongly associated with probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder. risk factors for posttraumatic stress following professional exposure to traumatic birth events among midwives are complex and multi-factorial. Posttraumatic stress may contribute to attrition in midwifery. Trauma-informed care and practice may reduce the incidence of traumatic births and subsequent posttraumatic stress reactions in women and midwives providing care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reporting and Methodology of Multivariable Analyses in Prognostic Observational Studies Published in 4 Anesthesiology Journals: A Methodological Descriptive Review.

PubMed

Guglielminotti, Jean; Dechartres, Agnès; Mentré, France; Montravers, Philippe; Longrois, Dan; Laouénan, Cedric

2015-10-01

Prognostic research studies in anesthesiology aim to identify risk factors for an outcome (explanatory studies) or calculate the risk of this outcome on the basis of patients' risk factors (predictive studies). Multivariable models express the relationship between predictors and an outcome and are used in both explanatory and predictive studies. Model development demands a strict methodology and a clear reporting to assess its reliability. In this methodological descriptive review, we critically assessed the reporting and methodology of multivariable analysis used in observational prognostic studies published in anesthesiology journals. A systematic search was conducted on Medline through Web of Knowledge, PubMed, and journal websites to identify observational prognostic studies with multivariable analysis published in Anesthesiology, Anesthesia & Analgesia, British Journal of Anaesthesia, and Anaesthesia in 2010 and 2011. Data were extracted by 2 independent readers. First, studies were analyzed with respect to reporting of outcomes, design, size, methods of analysis, model performance (discrimination and calibration), model validation, clinical usefulness, and STROBE (i.e., Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist. A reporting rate was calculated on the basis of 21 items of the aforementioned points. Second, they were analyzed with respect to some predefined methodological points. Eighty-six studies were included: 87.2% were explanatory and 80.2% investigated a postoperative event. The reporting was fairly good, with a median reporting rate of 79% (75% in explanatory studies and 100% in predictive studies). Six items had a reporting rate <36% (i.e., the 25th percentile), with some of them not identified in the STROBE checklist: blinded evaluation of the outcome (11.9%), reason for sample size (15.1%), handling of missing data (36.0%), assessment of colinearity (17.4%), assessment of interactions (13.9%), and calibration (34.9%). When reported, a few methodological shortcomings were observed, both in explanatory and predictive studies, such as an insufficient number of events of the outcome (44.6%), exclusion of cases with missing data (93.6%), or categorization of continuous variables (65.1%.). The reporting of multivariable analysis was fairly good and could be further improved by checking reporting guidelines and EQUATOR Network website. Limiting the number of candidate variables, including cases with missing data, and not arbitrarily categorizing continuous variables should be encouraged.

An empirical analysis of the cost of rearing dairy heifers from birth to first calving and the time taken to repay these costs.

PubMed

Boulton, A C; Rushton, J; Wathes, D C

2017-08-01

Rearing quality dairy heifers is essential to maintain herds by replacing culled cows. Information on the key factors influencing the cost of rearing under different management systems is, however, limited and many farmers are unaware of their true costs. This study determined the cost of rearing heifers from birth to first calving in Great Britain including the cost of mortality, investigated the main factors influencing these costs across differing farming systems and estimated how long it took heifers to repay the cost of rearing on individual farms. Primary data on heifer management from birth to calving was collected through a survey of 101 dairy farms during 2013. Univariate followed by multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the influence of farm factors and key rearing events on costs. An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to determine the time it took for heifers to repay the rearing cost. The mean±SD ages at weaning, conception and calving were 62±13, 509±60 and 784±60 days. The mean total cost of rearing was £1819±387/heifer with a mean daily cost of £2.31±0.41. This included the opportunity cost of the heifer and the mean cost of mortality, which ranged from £103.49 to £146.19/surviving heifer. The multivariable model predicted an increase in mean cost of rearing of £2.87 for each extra day of age at first calving and a decrease in mean cost of £6.06 for each percentile increase in time spent at grass. The model also predicted a decrease in the mean cost of rearing in autumn and spring calving herds of £273.20 and £288.56, respectively, compared with that in all-year-round calving herds. Farms with herd sizes⩾100 had lower mean costs of between £301.75 and £407.83 compared with farms with <100 milking cows. The mean gross margin per heifer was £441.66±304.56 (range £367.63 to £1120.08), with 11 farms experiencing negative gross margins. Most farms repaid the cost of heifer rearing in the first two lactations (range 1 to 6 lactations) with a mean time from first calving until breaking even of 530±293 days. The results of the economic analysis suggest that management decisions on key reproduction events and grazing policy significantly influence the cost of rearing and the time it takes for heifers to start making a profit for the farm.

Normalization methods in time series of platelet function assays

PubMed Central

Van Poucke, Sven; Zhang, Zhongheng; Roest, Mark; Vukicevic, Milan; Beran, Maud; Lauwereins, Bart; Zheng, Ming-Hua; Henskens, Yvonne; Lancé, Marcus; Marcus, Abraham

2016-01-01

Abstract Platelet function can be quantitatively assessed by specific assays such as light-transmission aggregometry, multiple-electrode aggregometry measuring the response to adenosine diphosphate (ADP), arachidonic acid, collagen, and thrombin-receptor activating peptide and viscoelastic tests such as rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM). The task of extracting meaningful statistical and clinical information from high-dimensional data spaces in temporal multivariate clinical data represented in multivariate time series is complex. Building insightful visualizations for multivariate time series demands adequate usage of normalization techniques. In this article, various methods for data normalization (z-transformation, range transformation, proportion transformation, and interquartile range) are presented and visualized discussing the most suited approach for platelet function data series. Normalization was calculated per assay (test) for all time points and per time point for all tests. Interquartile range, range transformation, and z-transformation demonstrated the correlation as calculated by the Spearman correlation test, when normalized per assay (test) for all time points. When normalizing per time point for all tests, no correlation could be abstracted from the charts as was the case when using all data as 1 dataset for normalization. PMID:27428217

A risk prediction score model for predicting occurrence of post-PCI vasovagal reflex syndrome: a single center study in Chinese population.

PubMed

Li, Hai-Yan; Guo, Yu-Tao; Tian, Cui; Song, Chao-Qun; Mu, Yang; Li, Yang; Chen, Yun-Dai

2017-08-01

The vasovagal reflex syndrome (VVRS) is common in the patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. From the hospital electronic medical database, we identified 3550 patients who received PCI (78.0% males, mean age 60 years) in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed. The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation (all P < 0.001). The rate of VVRS [95% confidence interval (CI)] in patients receiving PCI was 4.5% (4.1%-5.6%). Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stents implantation in the left anterior descending (LAD), and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS (all P < 0.001). We developed a risk prediction score model for VVRS. ROC analysis showed that the risk prediction score model was effectively predictive of the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI: 0.72-0.79, P < 0.001). There were decreased events of VVRS in the patients receiving PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81-0.87, P < 0.001). The risk prediction score is quite efficient in predicting the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI. In which, the following factors may be involved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.

Anxiety, Depression, and Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Starting Warfarin: Cardiovascular Research Network WAVE Study.

PubMed

Baumgartner, Christine; Fan, Dongjie; Fang, Margaret C; Singer, Daniel E; Witt, Daniel M; Schmelzer, John R; Williams, Marc S; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Sung, Sue Hee; Go, Alan S

2018-04-14

Anxiety and depression are associated with worse outcomes in several cardiovascular conditions, but it is unclear whether they affect outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF). In a large diverse population of adults with AF, we evaluated the association of diagnosed anxiety and/or depression with stroke and bleeding outcomes. The Cardiovascular Research Network WAVE (Community-Based Control and Persistence of Warfarin Therapy and Associated Rates and Predictors of Adverse Clinical Events in Atrial Fibrillation and Venous Thromboembolism) Study included adults with AF newly starting warfarin between 2004 and 2007 within 5 health delivery systems in the United States. Diagnosed anxiety and depression and other patient characteristics were identified from electronic health records. We identified stroke and bleeding outcomes from hospitalization databases using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision ( ICD-9 ), codes. We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the relation between anxiety and/or depression with outcomes after adjustment for stroke and bleeding risk factors. In 25 570 adults with AF initiating warfarin, 490 had an ischemic stroke or intracranial hemorrhage (1.52 events per 100 person-years). In multivariable analyses, diagnosed anxiety was associated with a higher adjusted rate of combined ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-2.28). Results were not materially changed after additional adjustment for patient-level percentage of time in therapeutic anticoagulation range on warfarin (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.36). In contrast, neither isolated depression nor combined depression and anxiety were significantly associated with outcomes. Diagnosed anxiety was independently associated with increased risk of combined ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage in adults with AF initiating warfarin that was not explained by differences in risk factors or achieved anticoagulation quality. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russo, Andrea L.; Adams, Judith A.; Weyman, Elizabeth A.

Purpose: Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the most common sinonasal cancer and is associated with one of the poor outcomes. Proton therapy allows excellent target coverage with maximal sparing of adjacent normal tissues. We evaluated the long-term outcomes in patients with sinonasal SCC treated with proton therapy. Methods and Materials: Between 1991 and 2008, 54 patients with Stage III and IV SCC of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinus received proton beam therapy at our institution to a median dose of 72.8 Gy(RBE). Sixty-nine percent underwent prior surgical resection, and 74% received elective nodal radiation. Locoregional control and survival probabilities weremore » estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Treatment toxicity was scored using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. Results: With a median follow-up time of 82 months in surviving patients, there were 10 local, 7 regional, and 11 distant failures. The 2-year and 5-year actuarial local control rate was 80%. The 2-year and 5-year rates of overall survival were 67% and 47%, respectively. Only smoking status was predictive for worse locoregional control, with current smokers having a 5-year rate of 23% compared with 83% for noncurrent smokers (P=.004). Karnofsky performance status ≤80 was the most significant factor predictive for worse overall survival in multivariate analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 4.5, 95% confidence interval 1.6-12.5, P=.004). There were nine grade 3 and six grade 4 toxicities, and no grade 5 toxicity. Wound adverse events constituted the most common grade 3-4 toxicity. Conclusions: Our long-term results show that proton radiation therapy is well tolerated and yields good locoregional control for SCC of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinus. Current smokers and patients with poor performance status had inferior outcomes. Prospective study is necessary to compare IMRT with proton therapy in the treatment of sinonasal malignancy.« less

Associations between bar patron alcohol intoxication and tobacco smoking.

PubMed

Rossheim, Matthew E; Thombs, Dennis L; O'Mara, Ryan J; Bastian, Nicholas; Suzuki, Sumihiro

2013-11-01

To examine the event-specific relationship between alcohol intoxication and nighttime tobacco smoking among college bar patrons. In this secondary analysis of existing data, we examined event-specific associations between self-report measures of tobacco smoking and breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) readings obtained from 424 patrons exiting on-premise drinking establishments. In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, acute alcohol intoxication was positively associated with same-night incidents of smoking tobacco, adjusting for the effects of established smoking practices and other potential confounders. This investigation is the first known study using data collected in an on-premise drinking setting to link alcohol intoxication to specific incidents of tobacco smoking.

Sex-based Prognostic Implications of Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease: Results from the International Multicenter CONFIRM Study

PubMed Central

Taylor, Carolyn M.; Gransar, Heidi; Shaw, Leslee J.; Ahmadi, Amir; Thompson, Angus; Humphries, Karin; Berman, Daniel S.; Hausleiter, Jörg; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Budoff, Matthew J.; Cademartiri, Fillippo; Callister, Tracy Q.; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chow, Benjamin J. W.; Cury, Ricardo C.; Delago, Augustin J.; Dunning, Allison L.; Feuchtner, Gudrun M.; Hadamitzky, Martin; Kaufmann, Philipp A.; Lin, Fay Y.; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha M.; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert L.; Villines, Todd C.; Gomez, Millie J.; Min, James K.

2014-01-01

Purpose To determine the clinical outcomes of women and men with nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CADcoronary artery disease) with coronary computed tomographic (CT) angiography data in patients who were similar in terms of CADcoronary artery disease risk factors, angina typicality, and CADcoronary artery disease extent and distribution. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approval was obtained for all participating sites, with either informed consent or waiver of informed consent. In a prospective international multicenter cohort study of 27 125 patients undergoing coronary CT angiography at 12 centers, 18 158 patients with no CADcoronary artery disease or nonobstructive (<50% stenosis) CADcoronary artery disease were examined. Men and women were propensity matched for age, CADcoronary artery disease risk factors, angina typicality, and CADcoronary artery disease extent and distribution, which resulted in a final cohort of 11 462 subjects. Nonobstructive CADcoronary artery disease presence and extent were related to incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEmajor adverse cardiovascular events), which were inclusive of death and myocardial infarction and were estimated by using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results At a mean follow-up ± standard deviation of 2.3 years ± 1.1, MACEmajor adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 164 patients (0.6% annual event rate). After matching, women and men experienced identical annualized rates of myocardial infarction (0.2% vs 0.2%, P = .72), death (0.5% vs 0.5%, P = .98), and MACEmajor adverse cardiovascular events (0.6% vs 0.6%, P = .94). In multivariable analysis, nonobstructive CADcoronary artery disease was associated with similarly increased MACEmajor adverse cardiovascular events for both women (hazard ratio: 1.96 [95% confidence interval {CIconfidence interval}: 1.17, 3.28], P = .01) and men (hazard ratio: 1.77 [95% CIconfidence interval: 1.07, 2.93], P = .03). Conclusion When matched for age, CADcoronary artery disease risk factors, angina typicality, and nonobstructive CADcoronary artery disease extent, women and men experience comparable rates of incident mortality and myocardial infarction. © RSNA, 2014 Online supplemental material is available for this article. PMID:25028784

Sex-based prognostic implications of nonobstructive coronary artery disease: results from the international multicenter CONFIRM study.

PubMed

Leipsic, Jonathon; Taylor, Carolyn M; Gransar, Heidi; Shaw, Leslee J; Ahmadi, Amir; Thompson, Angus; Humphries, Karin; Berman, Daniel S; Hausleiter, Jörg; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Fillippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; Delago, Augustin J; Dunning, Allison L; Feuchtner, Gudrun M; Hadamitzky, Martin; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Lin, Fay Y; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha M; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert L; Villines, Todd C; Gomez, Millie J; Min, James K

2014-11-01

To determine the clinical outcomes of women and men with nonobstructive coronary artery disease ( CAD coronary artery disease ) with coronary computed tomographic (CT) angiography data in patients who were similar in terms of CAD coronary artery disease risk factors, angina typicality, and CAD coronary artery disease extent and distribution. Institutional review board approval was obtained for all participating sites, with either informed consent or waiver of informed consent. In a prospective international multicenter cohort study of 27 125 patients undergoing coronary CT angiography at 12 centers, 18 158 patients with no CAD coronary artery disease or nonobstructive (<50% stenosis) CAD coronary artery disease were examined. Men and women were propensity matched for age, CAD coronary artery disease risk factors, angina typicality, and CAD coronary artery disease extent and distribution, which resulted in a final cohort of 11 462 subjects. Nonobstructive CAD coronary artery disease presence and extent were related to incident major adverse cardiovascular events ( MACE major adverse cardiovascular events ), which were inclusive of death and myocardial infarction and were estimated by using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. At a mean follow-up ± standard deviation of 2.3 years ± 1.1, MACE major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 164 patients (0.6% annual event rate). After matching, women and men experienced identical annualized rates of myocardial infarction (0.2% vs 0.2%, P = .72), death (0.5% vs 0.5%, P = .98), and MACE major adverse cardiovascular events (0.6% vs 0.6%, P = .94). In multivariable analysis, nonobstructive CAD coronary artery disease was associated with similarly increased MACE major adverse cardiovascular events for both women (hazard ratio: 1.96 [95% confidence interval { CI confidence interval }: 1.17, 3.28], P = .01) and men (hazard ratio: 1.77 [95% CI confidence interval : 1.07, 2.93], P = .03). When matched for age, CAD coronary artery disease risk factors, angina typicality, and nonobstructive CAD coronary artery disease extent, women and men experience comparable rates of incident mortality and myocardial infarction.

A Method for Comparing Multivariate Time Series with Different Dimensions

PubMed Central

Tapinos, Avraam; Mendes, Pedro

2013-01-01

In many situations it is desirable to compare dynamical systems based on their behavior. Similarity of behavior often implies similarity of internal mechanisms or dependency on common extrinsic factors. While there are widely used methods for comparing univariate time series, most dynamical systems are characterized by multivariate time series. Yet, comparison of multivariate time series has been limited to cases where they share a common dimensionality. A semi-metric is a distance function that has the properties of non-negativity, symmetry and reflexivity, but not sub-additivity. Here we develop a semi-metric – SMETS – that can be used for comparing groups of time series that may have different dimensions. To demonstrate its utility, the method is applied to dynamic models of biochemical networks and to portfolios of shares. The former is an example of a case where the dependencies between system variables are known, while in the latter the system is treated (and behaves) as a black box. PMID:23393554

Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Mendes, David; Spyrides, Maria H. C.; Pedra, George U.; Lucio, Paulo S.

2017-09-01

A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the { MITB}_1 and { MITB}_2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting.

Factors for short-term outcomes in patients with a minor stroke: results from China National Stroke Registry.

PubMed

Wu, Lingyun; Wang, Anxin; Wang, Xianwei; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Chunxue; Liu, Liping; Zheng, Huaguang; Wang, Yongjun; Cao, Yibin; Wang, Yilong

2015-12-09

Stroke recurrence and disability in patients with a minor stroke is one of the most depressing medical situations. In this study, we aimed to identify which factors were associated with adverse outcomes of a minor stroke. The China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) is a nationwide prospective registry for patients presented to hospitals with acute cerebrovascular events between September 2007 and August 2008. The 3-month follow-up was completed in 4669 patients with a minor stroke defined as the initial neurological severity lower than 4 in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Multivariate model was used to determine the association between risk factors and clinical outcomes. Of 4669 patients with a minor stroke during 3-month follow-up, 459 (9.8 %) patients experienced recurrent stroke, 679 (14.5 %) had stroke disability and 168 (3.6 %) died. Multivariate model identified hypertension, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease and previous stroke as independent predictors for the recurrent stroke. Age, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, previous stroke and time from onset to admission < 24 h were independent predictors for stroke disability. The independent predictors for the all-caused death were age, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease. The short-term risk of poor clinical outcome in Chinese patients with a minor stroke was substantial. Therefore, patients with a minor stroke should be given expeditious assessment and urgent aggressive intervention.

T-pattern analysis for the study of temporal structure of animal and human behavior: a comprehensive review.

PubMed

Casarrubea, M; Jonsson, G K; Faulisi, F; Sorbera, F; Di Giovanni, G; Benigno, A; Crescimanno, G; Magnusson, M S

2015-01-15

A basic tenet in the realm of modern behavioral sciences is that behavior consists of patterns in time. For this reason, investigations of behavior deal with sequences that are not easily perceivable by the unaided observer. This problem calls for improved means of detection, data handling and analysis. This review focuses on the analysis of the temporal structure of behavior carried out by means of a multivariate approach known as T-pattern analysis. Using this technique, recurring sequences of behavioral events, usually hard to detect, can be unveiled and carefully described. T-pattern analysis has been successfully applied in the study of various aspects of human or animal behavior such as behavioral modifications in neuro-psychiatric diseases, route-tracing stereotypy in mice, interaction between human subjects and animal or artificial agents, hormonal-behavioral interactions, patterns of behavior associated with emesis and, in our laboratories, exploration and anxiety-related behaviors in rodents. After describing the theory and concepts of T-pattern analysis, this review will focus on the application of the analysis to the study of the temporal characteristics of behavior in different species from rodents to human beings. This work could represent a useful background for researchers who intend to employ such a refined multivariate approach to the study of behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Circuit lifespan during continuous renal replacement therapy for combined liver and kidney failure.

PubMed

Chua, Horng-Ruey; Baldwin, Ian; Bailey, Michael; Subramaniam, Ashwin; Bellomo, Rinaldo

2012-12-01

To evaluate circuit lifespan (CL) and bleeding risk during continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), in combined liver and renal failure. Single-center retrospective analysis of adults with acute liver failure or decompensated cirrhosis who received CRRT, without anticoagulation or with heparinization in intensive care unit. Seventy-one patients with 539 CRRT circuits were evaluated. Median overall CL was 9 (6-16) hours. CL was 12 (7-24) hours in 51 patients never anticoagulated for CRRT. In 20 patients who subsequently received heparinization, CL was 7 (5-11) hours without anticoagulation, which did not improve with systemic or regional heparinization (P = .231), despite higher peri-circuit activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) and heparin dose. Using multivariate linear regression, patients with higher baseline APTT or serum bilirubin, or who were not mechanically ventilated, had longer CL (P < .05). Additionally, peri-circuit thrombocytopenia (P < .0001) or higher international normalized ratio (P < .05) predicted longer CL. Of 71 patients, 33 had significant bleeding events. Using multivariate logistic regression, patients with higher baseline APTT, vasoactive drug use >24 hours, or thrombocytopenia, had more bleeding complications (P < .05). Decreasing platelet counts (especially <50 × 10(9)/mm(3)) had an incremental effect on CL (P < .0001). CRRT CL is short in patients with liver failure despite apparent coagulopathy. Thrombocytopenia predicts longer CL and bleeding complications. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Machine learning for the automatic detection of anomalous events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Wendy D.

In this dissertation, we describe our research contributions for a novel approach to the application of machine learning for the automatic detection of anomalous events. We work in two different domains to ensure a robust data-driven workflow that could be generalized for monitoring other systems. Specifically, in our first domain, we begin with the identification of internal erosion events in earth dams and levees (EDLs) using geophysical data collected from sensors located on the surface of the levee. As EDLs across the globe reach the end of their design lives, effectively monitoring their structural integrity is of critical importance. The second domain of interest is related to mobile telecommunications, where we investigate a system for automatically detecting non-commercial base station routers (BSRs) operating in protected frequency space. The presence of non-commercial BSRs can disrupt the connectivity of end users, cause service issues for the commercial providers, and introduce significant security concerns. We provide our motivation, experimentation, and results from investigating a generalized novel data-driven workflow using several machine learning techniques. In Chapter 2, we present results from our performance study that uses popular unsupervised clustering algorithms to gain insights to our real-world problems, and evaluate our results using internal and external validation techniques. Using EDL passive seismic data from an experimental laboratory earth embankment, results consistently show a clear separation of events from non-events in four of the five clustering algorithms applied. Chapter 3 uses a multivariate Gaussian machine learning model to identify anomalies in our experimental data sets. For the EDL work, we used experimental data from two different laboratory earth embankments. Additionally, we explore five wavelet transform methods for signal denoising. The best performance is achieved with the Haar wavelets. We achieve up to 97.3% overall accuracy and less than 1.4% false negatives in anomaly detection. In Chapter 4, we research using two-class and one-class support vector machines (SVMs) for an effective anomaly detection system. We again use the two different EDL data sets from experimental laboratory earth embankments (each having approximately 80% normal and 20% anomalies) to ensure our workflow is robust enough to work with multiple data sets and different types of anomalous events (e.g., cracks and piping). We apply Haar wavelet-denoising techniques and extract nine spectral features from decomposed segments of the time series data. The two-class SVM with 10-fold cross validation achieved over 94% overall accuracy and 96% F1-score. Our approach provides a means for automatically identifying anomalous events using various machine learning techniques. Detecting internal erosion events in aging EDLs, earlier than is currently possible, can allow more time to prevent or mitigate catastrophic failures. Results show that we can successfully separate normal from anomalous data observations in passive seismic data, and provide a step towards techniques for continuous real-time monitoring of EDL health. Our lightweight non-commercial BSR detection system also has promise in separating commercial from non-commercial BSR scans without the need for prior geographic location information, extensive time-lapse surveys, or a database of known commercial carriers. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

2016-12-01

Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal deposition rate exhibits changes over time coincident with major climatic and vegetation shifts over the past 10,000 years. Ongoing work will use the regional charcoal deposition rate to estimate changes in biomass burned as a function of climate variability and regional vegetation pattern.

Negative Life Events and Attempted Suicide in Rural China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wen-Chao; Jia, Cun-Xian; Zhang, Ji-Yu; Wang, Lin-Lin; Liu, Xian-Chen

2015-01-01

Objective This study aimed to examine the association between negative life events (NLEs) and attempted suicide in rural China. Methods Six rural counties were selected from disease surveillance points in Shandong province, China. A total of 409 suicide attempters in rural areas between October 1, 2009, and March 31, 2011, and an equal number of matched controls were interviewed. We compared negative life events experienced within 1 month, 1–3 months, 3–6months, and 6–2 months prior to attempted suicide for cases and prior to interview for controls. We used multivariate logistic regression to examine the association between NLEs and attempted suicide. Results Suicide attempters experienced more NLEs within the last year prior to suicide attempt than controls prior to interview (83.1% vs. 33.5%). There was a significant dose-response relationship between NLEs experienced within the last year and increased risk of attempted suicide. Timing of NLEs analysis showed that NLEs experienced in the last month and 6–12 months prior to suicide attempt were significantly associated with elevated risk of attempted suicide, even after adjusting for mental disorders and demographic factors. Of NLEs, quarrelling with spouse, quarrelling with other family members, conflicting with friends or neighbors, family financial difficulty, and serious illness were independently related to attempted suicide. Conclusion NLEs are significantly associated with increased risk for attempted suicide in rural China. Stress management and intervention may be important to prevent suicidal behavior in rural China. PMID:25611854

Prospective predictors of adolescent suicidality: 6-month post-hospitalization follow-up

PubMed Central

Yen, S.; Weinstock, L. M.; Andover, M. S.; Sheets, E. S.; Selby, E. A.; Spirito, A.

2013-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to examine prospective predictors of suicide events, defined as suicide attempts or emergency interventions to reduce suicide risk, in 119 adolescents admitted to an in-patient psychiatric unit for suicidal behaviors and followed naturalistically for 6 months. Method Structured diagnostic interviews and self-report instruments were administered to adolescent participants and their parent(s) to assess demographic variables, history of suicidal behavior, psychiatric disorders, family environment and personality/temperament. Results Baseline variables that significantly predicted time to a suicide event during follow-up were Black race, high suicidal ideation in the past month, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), childhood sexual abuse (CSA), borderline personality disorder (BPD), low scores on positive affectivity, and high scores on aggression. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, only Black race, CSA, positive affect intensity and high aggression scores remained significant. Conclusions Our findings suggest the following for adolescent populations: (1) in a very high-risk population, risk factors for future attempts may be more difficult to ascertain and some established risk factors (e.g. past suicide attempt) may not distinguish as well; and (2) cross-cutting constructs (e.g. affective and behavioral dysregulation) that underlie multiple psychiatric disorders may be stronger predictors of recurrent suicide events than psychiatric diagnoses. Our finding with respect to positive affect intensity is novel and may have practical implications for the assessment and treatment of adolescent suicide attempters. PMID:22932393

Factors associated with deliberate self-harm among Irish adolescents.

PubMed

McMahon, E M; Reulbach, U; Corcoran, P; Keeley, H S; Perry, I J; Arensman, E

2010-11-01

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is a major public health problem, with young people most at risk. Lifetime prevalence of DSH in Irish adolescents is between 8% and 12%, and it is three times more prevalent among girls than boys. The aim of the study was to identify the psychological, life-style and life event factors associated with self-harm in Irish adolescents. A cross-sectional study was conducted, with 3881 adolescents in 39 schools completing an anonymous questionnaire as part of the Child and Adolescent Self-harm in Europe (CASE) study. There was an equal gender balance and 53.1% of students were 16 years old. Information was obtained on history of self-harm life events, and demographic, psychological and life-style factors. Based on multivariate analyses, important factors associated with DSH among both genders were drug use and knowing a friend who had engaged in self-harm. Among girls, poor self-esteem, forced sexual activity, self-harm of a family member, fights with parents and problems with friendships also remained in the final model. For boys, experiencing bullying, problems with schoolwork, impulsivity and anxiety remained. Distinct profiles of boys and girls who engage in self-harm were identified. Associations between DSH and some life-style and life event factors suggest that mental health factors are not the sole indicators of risk of self-harm. The importance of school-related risk factors underlines the need to develop gender-specific initiatives in schools to reduce the prevalence of self-harm.

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

Motivation and intention to integrate physical activity into daily school life: the JAM World Record event.

PubMed

Vazou, Spyridoula; Vlachopoulos, Symeon P

2014-11-01

Research on the motivation of stakeholders to integrate physical activity into daily school life is limited. The purpose was to examine the motivation of stakeholders to participate in a world record physical activity event and whether motivation was associated with future intention to use activity breaks during the daily school life and future participation in a similar event. After the 2012 JAM (Just-a-Minute) World Record event, 686 adults (591 women; 76.1% participated for children <10 years) completed measures of motivational regulations and future intention to (a) use the activity breaks and (b) participate in the event. High intrinsic motivation and low extrinsic motivation and amotivation for participation in the next event were reported. Hierarchical regression analysis, controlling for age, gender, and occupation, showed that intrinsic forms of motivation positively predicted, whereas amotivation negatively predicted, future intention to participate in the event and use the activity breaks. Multivariate analyses of variance revealed that school-related participants were more intrinsically motivated and intended to use the activity breaks and repeat the event more than those who were not affiliated with a school. Nonschool participants reported higher extrinsic motivation and amotivation than school-related participants. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Breast cancer, psychological distress and life events among young women

PubMed Central

Peled, Ronit; Carmil, Devora; Siboni-Samocha, Orly; Shoham-Vardi, Ilana

2008-01-01

Since 1983, studies have suggested an interaction between the severe life events, psychological distress and the etiology of Cancer. However, these associations are still under dispute. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between life events, psychological distress and Breast Cancer (BC) among young women. Methods A case control study. The study population included 622 women, under the age of 45 years. 255 were diagnosed for BC, and 367 were healthy women. A validated Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI) and Life Event Questionnaire were used. Results The cases presented significantly higher scores of depression compared to the controls and significant lower scores of happiness and optimism. A significant difference was found when comparing the groups according to the cumulative number of life events (two or more events). A multivariate analysis suggest that exposure to more than one life event is positively associated with BC [Odds Ratio(OR) :1.62 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09–2.40], and that a general feeling of happiness and optimism has a "protective effect" on the etiology of BC. (OR-0.75, 95% CI:0.64–0.86). Conclusion Young women who were exposed to a number of life events, should be considered as a risk group for BC and treated accordingly. PMID:18721454

[A Longitudinal Study on Labour Market Transitions and Sustainability of Employment After Further Training Measures in the Context of Vocational Rehabilitation].

PubMed

Reims, Nancy; Tophoven, Silke

2018-06-01

The study examines employment prospects of persons who participate in further and re-training measures in the context of vocational rehabilitation in the responsibility of the Federal Employment Agency (FEA). Using administrative data of the FEA (RehaPro), we focus on persons completing vocational rehabilitation between 2009 and 2012 (N=21,772). We employ event history analysis to present time and extent of employment transition and their sustainability. By using multivariate analyses, factors for taking up employment are identified. Within 500 days, 70 % of promoted persons gain contributed employment, often directly after rehabilitation. The median for employment duration within the observation period is 670 days. Further training measures are an important opportunity for the re-integration of persons with health limitations in the labour market. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Physiological and pathological clinical conditions and light scattering in brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurata, Tsuyoshi; Iwata, Sachiko; Tsuda, Kennosuke; Kinoshita, Masahiro; Saikusa, Mamoru; Hara, Naoko; Oda, Motoki; Ohmae, Etsuko; Araki, Yuko; Sugioka, Takashi; Takashima, Sachio; Iwata, Osuke

2016-08-01

MRI of preterm infants at term commonly reveals subtle brain lesions such as diffuse white matter injury, which are linked with later cognitive impairments. The timing and mechanism of such injury remains unclear. The reduced scattering coefficient of near-infrared light (μs’) has been shown to correlate linearly with gestational age in neonates. To identify clinical variables associated with brain μs’, 60 preterm and full-term infants were studied within 7 days of birth. Dependence of μs’ obtained from the frontal head on clinical variables was assessed. In the univariate analysis, smaller μs’ was associated with antenatal glucocorticoid, emergency Caesarean section, requirement for mechanical ventilation, smaller gestational age, smaller body sizes, low 1- and 5-minute Apgar scores, higher cord blood pH and PO2, and higher blood HCO3- at the time of study. Multivariate analysis revealed that smaller gestational age, requirement for mechanical ventilation, and higher HCO3- at the time of study were correlated with smaller μs’. Brain μs’ depended on variables associated with physiological maturation and pathological conditions of the brain. Further longitudinal studies may help identify pathological events and clinical conditions responsible for subtle brain injury and subsequent cognitive impairments following preterm birth.

Multivariate pattern analysis of MEG and EEG: A comparison of representational structure in time and space.

PubMed

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Pantazis, Dimitrios

2017-09-01

Multivariate pattern analysis of magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) data can reveal the rapid neural dynamics underlying cognition. However, MEG and EEG have systematic differences in sampling neural activity. This poses the question to which degree such measurement differences consistently bias the results of multivariate analysis applied to MEG and EEG activation patterns. To investigate, we conducted a concurrent MEG/EEG study while participants viewed images of everyday objects. We applied multivariate classification analyses to MEG and EEG data, and compared the resulting time courses to each other, and to fMRI data for an independent evaluation in space. We found that both MEG and EEG revealed the millisecond spatio-temporal dynamics of visual processing with largely equivalent results. Beyond yielding convergent results, we found that MEG and EEG also captured partly unique aspects of visual representations. Those unique components emerged earlier in time for MEG than for EEG. Identifying the sources of those unique components with fMRI, we found the locus for both MEG and EEG in high-level visual cortex, and in addition for MEG in low-level visual cortex. Together, our results show that multivariate analyses of MEG and EEG data offer a convergent and complimentary view on neural processing, and motivate the wider adoption of these methods in both MEG and EEG research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empirical performance of the multivariate normal universal portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

2013-09-01

Universal portfolios generated by the multivariate normal distribution are studied with emphasis on the case where variables are dependent, namely, the covariance matrix is not diagonal. The moving-order multivariate normal universal portfolio requires very long implementation time and large computer memory in its implementation. With the objective of reducing memory and implementation time, the finite-order universal portfolio is introduced. Some stock-price data sets are selected from the local stock exchange and the finite-order universal portfolio is run on the data sets, for small finite order. Empirically, it is shown that the portfolio can outperform the moving-order Dirichlet universal portfolio of Cover and Ordentlich[2] for certain parameters in the selected data sets.

Operationalizing Proneness to Externalizing Psychopathology as a Multivariate Psychophysiological Phenotype

PubMed Central

Nelson, Lindsay D.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Bernat, Edward M.

2010-01-01

The externalizing dimension is viewed as a broad dispositional factor underlying risk for numerous disinhibitory disorders. Prior work has documented deficits in event-related brain potential (ERP) responses in individuals prone to externalizing problems. Here, we constructed a direct physiological index of externalizing vulnerability from three ERP indicators and evaluated its validity in relation to criterion measures in two distinct domains: psychometric and physiological. The index was derived from three ERP measures that covaried in their relations with externalizing proneness the error-related negativity and two variants of the P3. Scores on this ERP composite predicted psychometric criterion variables and accounted for externalizing-related variance in P3 response from a separate task. These findings illustrate how a diagnostic construct can be operationalized as a composite (multivariate) psychophysiological variable (phenotype). PMID:20573054

Occurrence and Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Were Not Rare Events during Phlebotomy in Older Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Patients

PubMed Central

Kanda, Tatsuo; Nakamoto, Shingo; Yasui, Shin; Nakamura, Masato; Miyamura, Tatsuo; Wu, Shuang; Jiang, Xia; Arai, Makoto; Imazeki, Fumio; Yokosuka, Osamu

2014-01-01

The use of phlebotomy is relatively common for ‘difficult-to-treat by antiviral therapies’ hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients and for certain patients having chronic liver diseases with an iron overload of the liver. In the present study, we retrospectively analyzed patients treated with phlebotomy and their adverse events. We observed the occurrence and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and the appearance of ascites in some patients infected with HCV as well as the reduction of serum ferritin and alanine aminotransferase levels. Severe adverse events necessitating a cessation of phlebotomy occurred independently of α-fetoprotein (>10 ng/ml) in patients infected with HCV according to multivariate logistic regression analysis. These findings may serve as a basis for phlebotomy especially in older patients with chronic hepatitis C. PMID:24926259

International normalized ratio self-management lowers the risk of thromboembolic events after prosthetic heart valve replacement.

PubMed

Eitz, Thomas; Schenk, Soren; Fritzsche, Dirk; Bairaktaris, Andreas; Wagner, Otto; Koertke, Heinrich; Koerfer, Reiner

2008-03-01

Although prosthetic valves are durable and easy to implant, the need for lifetime warfarin-based anticoagulation restricts their exclusive usage. We investigated if anticoagulation self-management improves outcome in a single-center series. Between 1994 and 1998, 765 patients with prosthetic valve replacements were prospectively enrolled and randomized to receive conventional anticoagulation management by their primary physician (group 1, n = 295) or to pursue anticoagulation self-management (group 2, n = 470). A study head office was implemented to coordinate and monitor anticoagulation protocols, international normalized ratios (INR), and adverse events. Patients were instructed on how to obtain and test their own blood samples and to adjust warfarin dosages according to the measured INR (target range, 2.5 to 4). Mean INR values were slightly yet significantly smaller in group 1 than in group 2 (2.8 +/- 0.7 vs 3.0 +/- .6, p < 0.001). Moreover, INR values of patients with conventional INR management were frequently measured outside the INR target range, whereas those with anticoagulation self-management mostly remained within the range (35% vs 21%, p < 0.001). In addition, the scatter of INR values was smaller if self-managed. Freedom from thromboembolism at 3, 12, and 24 months, respectively, was 99%, 95%, and 91% in group 1 compared with 99%, 98%, and 96% in group 2 (p = 0.008). Bleeding events were similar in both groups. Time-related multivariate analysis identified INR self-management and higher INR as independent predictors for better outcome. Anticoagulation self-management can improve INR profiles up to 2 years after prosthetic valve replacement and reduce adverse events. Current indications of prosthetic rather than biologic valve implantations may be extended if the benefit of INR self-management is shown by future studies with longer follow-up.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa keratitis: outcomes and response to corticosteroid treatment.

PubMed

Sy, Aileen; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Mascarenhas, Jeena; Lalitha, Prajna; Rajaraman, Revathi; Ravindran, Meenakshi; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Ray, Kathryn J; Glidden, David; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2012-01-25

To compare the clinical course and effect of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in Pseudomonas aeruginosa with those of all other strains of bacterial keratitis. Subanalyses were performed on data collected in the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), a large randomized controlled trial in which patients were treated with moxifloxacin and were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 adjunctive treatment arms: corticosteroid or placebo (4 times a day with subsequent reduction). Multivariate analysis was used to determine the effect of predictors, organism, and treatment on outcomes, 3-month best-spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), and infiltrate/scar size. The incidence of adverse events over a 3-month follow-up period was compared using Fisher's exact test. SCUT enrolled 500 patients. One hundred ten patients had P. aeruginosa ulcers; 99 of 110 (90%) enrolled patients returned for follow-up at 3 months. Patients with P. aeruginosa ulcers had significantly worse visual acuities than patients with other bacterial ulcers (P = 0.001) but showed significantly more improvement in 3-month BSCVA than those with other bacterial ulcers, adjusting for baseline characteristics (-0.14 logMAR; 95% confidence interval, -0.23 to -0.04; P = 0.004). There was no significant difference in adverse events between P. aeruginosa and other bacterial ulcers. There were no significant differences in BSCVA (P = 0.69), infiltrate/scar size (P = 0.17), and incidence of adverse events between patients with P. aeruginosa ulcers treated with adjunctive corticosteroids and patients given placebo. Although P. aeruginosa corneal ulcers have a more severe presentation, they appear to respond better to treatment than other bacterial ulcers. The authors did not find a significant benefit with corticosteroid treatment, but they also did not find any increase in adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00324168.).

Pseudomonas aeruginosa Keratitis: Outcomes and Response to Corticosteroid Treatment

PubMed Central

Sy, Aileen; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Mascarenhas, Jeena; Lalitha, Prajna; Rajaraman, Revathi; Ravindran, Meenakshi; Oldenburg, Catherine E.; Ray, Kathryn J.; Glidden, David; Zegans, Michael E.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2012-01-01

Purpose. To compare the clinical course and effect of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in Pseudomonas aeruginosa with those of all other strains of bacterial keratitis. Methods. Subanalyses were performed on data collected in the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), a large randomized controlled trial in which patients were treated with moxifloxacin and were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 adjunctive treatment arms: corticosteroid or placebo (4 times a day with subsequent reduction). Multivariate analysis was used to determine the effect of predictors, organism, and treatment on outcomes, 3-month best-spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), and infiltrate/scar size. The incidence of adverse events over a 3-month follow-up period was compared using Fisher's exact test. Results. SCUT enrolled 500 patients. One hundred ten patients had P. aeruginosa ulcers; 99 of 110 (90%) enrolled patients returned for follow-up at 3 months. Patients with P. aeruginosa ulcers had significantly worse visual acuities than patients with other bacterial ulcers (P = 0.001) but showed significantly more improvement in 3-month BSCVA than those with other bacterial ulcers, adjusting for baseline characteristics (−0.14 logMAR; 95% confidence interval, −0.23 to −0.04; P = 0.004). There was no significant difference in adverse events between P. aeruginosa and other bacterial ulcers. There were no significant differences in BSCVA (P = 0.69), infiltrate/scar size (P = 0.17), and incidence of adverse events between patients with P. aeruginosa ulcers treated with adjunctive corticosteroids and patients given placebo. Conclusions. Although P. aeruginosa corneal ulcers have a more severe presentation, they appear to respond better to treatment than other bacterial ulcers. The authors did not find a significant benefit with corticosteroid treatment, but they also did not find any increase in adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00324168.) PMID:22159005

Post-marketing safety and effectiveness evaluation of the intravenous anti-influenza neuraminidase inhibitor peramivir. II: a pediatric drug use investigation.

PubMed

Komeda, Takuji; Ishii, Shingo; Itoh, Yumiko; Ariyasu, Yasuyuki; Sanekata, Masaki; Yoshikawa, Takayoshi; Shimada, Jingoro

2015-03-01

Peramivir is the only intravenous formulation among anti-influenza neuraminidase inhibitors currently available. Peramivir was approved for manufacturing and marketing in Japan in January 2010. In October 2010, an additional indication for pediatric use was approved. We conducted a pediatric drug use investigation of peramivir from October 2010 to February 2012 and evaluated its real-world safety and effectiveness in pediatric patients. We collected the data of 1254 peramivir-treated pediatric patients from 161 facilities across Japan and examined the safety in 1199 patients and effectiveness in 1188 patients. In total, 245 adverse events were observed with an incidence rate of 14.01% (168/1199). Of these, 115 events were adverse drug reactions (ADRs) with an incidence rate of 7.67% (92/1199). Common ADRs were diarrhea and abnormal behavior, with incidence rates of 2.50% (30/1199) and 2.25% (27/1199), respectively. Fourteen serious ADRs were observed in 12 patients (1.00%), including 5 cases each of abnormal behavior and neutrophil count decreased. While 87.0% (100 events) of ADRs occurred within 3 days after the initiation of peramivir administration, 87.8% (101 events) resolved or improved within 7 days after onset. Multivariate analyses indicated that the presence or absence of underlying diseases/complications was significantly related to ADR incidence. With regard to effectiveness, the median time to alleviation of both influenza symptoms and fever was 3 days, including the first day of administration. Thus, this study confirms the pediatric safety of peramivir without any concerns about effectiveness under routine clinical settings. Copyright © 2014 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum cholinesterase is an important prognostic factor in chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Sato, Takamasa; Yamauchi, Hiroyuki; Suzuki, Satoshi; Yoshihisa, Akiomi; Yamaki, Takayoshi; Sugimoto, Koichi; Kunii, Hiroyuki; Nakazato, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Saitoh, Shu-ichi; Takeishi, Yasuchika

2015-03-01

We determine the importance of indicators of nutrition including lymphocyte, total protein, albumin, cholinesterase and body mass index, and compare the prognostic significance in chronic heart failure (CHF). We examined consecutive 465 CHF patients (376 males, age 62 ± 14 years) who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing, echocardiography and blood examination including indicators of nutrition at the same time in our hospital. The patients were followed up [median period 766 days (interquartile range 500-1060)] to register cardiac deaths and rehospitalization due to worsening heart failure. There were 180 cardiac events during the follow-up periods. Patients with cardiac events had lower cholinesterase level than those without events (P < 0.001). On the receiver operating characteristic analysis, the best cut-off value for cholinesterase was 240 U/l (area under the curve 0.720). In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with cholinesterase <240 U/l had significantly higher cardiac event rates than those with cholinesterase >240 U/l. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that NYHA class III [hazard ratio (HR): 1.688, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.062-2.684, P = 0.027], eGFR (HR: 0.983, 95 % CI 0.971-0.995, P = 0.006), sodium concentration (HR: 0.947, 95 % CI 0.897-0.999, P < 0.046), log BNP (HR: 1.880, 95 % CI 1.509-2.341, P < 0.001), cholinesterase (HR: 0.996, 95 % CI 0.993-0.998, P = 0.002) and exertional periodic breathing (HR: 1.619, 95 % CI 1.098-2.388, P = 0.015) were independent factors to predict adverse clinical outcomes. Serum cholinesterase level was an important prognostic factor in CHF.

Risk score for pediatric intensive care unit admission in children undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and analysis of predictive factors for survival.

PubMed

González-Vicent, Marta; Marín, Catalina; Madero, Luis; Sevilla, Julián; Díaz, Miguel Angel

2005-10-01

The authors retrospectively analyzed postransplantation events in 198 children who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) between 1998 and 2002 to obtain a risk score for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission and to ascertain variables predicting a poor outcome. Thirty-six patients (18%) were admitted to the PICU. Median age was 9 years (range 1-18). On univariate analysis, variables significantly associated with PICU admission were male gender (P = 0.01), more than first complete remission (P = 0.003), allogeneic transplantation (P = 0.001), engraftment syndrome (P = 0.03), and acute graft-versus-host disease grade of at least two (P = 0.05). According to this, patients were divided in two levels of risk (low and high), with a respective probability of PICU admission of 8.8 +/- 2.2% and 63.8 +/- 8.8% (P < 0.0001). Seventeen (47%) patients were discharged from the PICU. The probability of event-free survival after PICU admission at 3 years was 24.2 +/- 7%. On univariate analysis, variables with a negative impact on event-free survival were type of transplantation, inotropic support, a C-reactive protein level of at least 10 mg/dL, and a high O-PRISM score. On multivariate analysis, the only variable that influenced event-free survival was the O-PRISM score (< or =10 points, 54.6 +/- 15.3%; >10 points, 8.6 +/- 5.8%; P = 0.007). In conclusion, the risk of PICU admission may be easily estimated using simple variables. A high O-PRISM score at the time of PICU admission predicts a dismal outcome.

Network structure of multivariate time series.

PubMed

Lacasa, Lucas; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Latora, Vito

2015-10-21

Our understanding of a variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics crucially depends on the analysis of multivariate time series. While a wide range tools and techniques for time series analysis already exist, the increasing availability of massive data structures calls for new approaches for multidimensional signal processing. We present here a non-parametric method to analyse multivariate time series, based on the mapping of a multidimensional time series into a multilayer network, which allows to extract information on a high dimensional dynamical system through the analysis of the structure of the associated multiplex network. The method is simple to implement, general, scalable, does not require ad hoc phase space partitioning, and is thus suitable for the analysis of large, heterogeneous and non-stationary time series. We show that simple structural descriptors of the associated multiplex networks allow to extract and quantify nontrivial properties of coupled chaotic maps, including the transition between different dynamical phases and the onset of various types of synchronization. As a concrete example we then study financial time series, showing that a multiplex network analysis can efficiently discriminate crises from periods of financial stability, where standard methods based on time-series symbolization often fail.

[Effects of recent upper respiratory-tract infections on incidence of the perioperative respiratory adverse events in children: a prospective cohort study].

PubMed

Li, C Q; Wang, D X; Cheng, T; Zheng, X Y

2017-10-18

To investigate the effects of the recent upper respiratory tract infections (URI) on the incidence of perioperative respiratory adverse events in children scheduled to undergo general anesthesia and elective surgery. In the study, 232 children undergoing general anesthesia with laryngeal mask airway (LMA) for elective ophthalmic surgeries at Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China, from Nov. 1, 2015 to May 10, 2016 were enrolled. On the day of the surgery, the parents of the children were preoperatively asked to fill out a questionnaire regarding the baseline characteristics and medical history of the children, including gender, age, height, weight, history of URI within the last 2 weeks before anesthesia, history of premature, long-term passive smoking exposure, habitual sleep snoring, and history of asthma. In addition, all adverse respiratory events throughout the perioperative periods (oxygen desaturation, cough, copious secretions, laryngospasm and bronchospasm) as well as peri-operative variables (number of attempts to insert the LMA successfully, anesthesia duration and so on) were recorded. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify independent risk factors of perioperative respiratory adverse events. Among the 232 children included in the study, 28.0% (65/232) presented with a history of a recent URI within the last 2 weeks before anesthesia. The presence of the recent URI increased the incidence of oxygen desaturation (23.1% vs.12.0%, P=0.034), copious secretions (15.4% vs. 6.6%, P=0.036) and any of all the adverse respiratory events (32.3% vs. 18.6%, P=0.024). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified two independent risk factors of perioperative adverse respiratory events: a history of URI within the last 2 weeks before general anesthesia (OR=2.021, 95%CI: 1.023-3.994, P=0.043) and habitual sleep snoring (OR=3.660, 95%CI: 1.517-8.832, P=0.004). A history of a recent URI within 2 weeks before general anesthesia was associated with a higher incidence of oxygen desaturation, copious secretions and the overall respiratory adverse events. For the children with recent URI, we recommend the general anesthesia and elective surgery should be postponed for at least 2 weeks after the URI.

Cardiovascular Disease After Aromatase Inhibitor Use.

PubMed

Haque, Reina; Shi, Jiaxiao; Schottinger, Joanne E; Chung, Joanie; Avila, Chantal; Amundsen, Britta; Xu, Xiaoqing; Barac, Ana; Chlebowski, Rowan T

2016-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an important cause of death in older patients with breast cancer. However, limited information exists on the long-term effect of aromatase inhibitor (AI) use on CVD risk in breast cancer survivors. To this point, no other population-based studies have been able to adjust for CVD risk factors or cardiovascular medications. To determine the long-term influence of adjuvant endocrine therapies on CVD in a cohort of postmenopausal breast cancer survivors in analyses that accounted for major CVD risk factors, medication use, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. A retrospective cohort of postmenopausal women with breast cancer diagnosed from January 1, 1991, to December 31, 2010, and followed up through December 31, 2011 (maximum, 21 years [72 886 person-years]), was evaluated using records from a managed care organization with nearly 20 community hospitals in California. A total of 13 273 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer without prior CVD were included. Cardiovascular disease incidence was compared across endocrine therapy categories. Information on demographics, comorbidity, medication, use, and CVD risk was captured from electronic health records. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models using time-dependent endocrine drug use variables and propensity scores were conducted. Data analysis was conducted from September 15, 2014, to February 1, 2016. Women were grouped by endocrine therapy status (tamoxifen citrate only, AI only, both, or neither). Person-year rates of CVD for each therapy group. During 72 886 person-years in 13 273 women (mean [SD] age, 66.8 [8.1] years) with follow-up through 2011, we observed 3711 CVD events. In multivariable analyses (reported as hazard ratio [95% CI]), AI-only users had a similar risk of cardiac ischemia (myocardial infarction and angina) (adjusted, 0.97 [0.78-1.22]) and stroke (adjusted, 0.97 [0.70-1.33]) as tamoxifen-only users (reference). However, we found an increased risk of other CVD (dysrhythmia, valvular dysfunction, and pericarditis) (adjusted, 1.29 [1.11-1.50]) in women who used AIs only or sequentially after tamoxifen (1.26 [1.09-1.45]) vs tamoxifen (reference) as well nonhormone users (1.18 [1.02-1.35]). The risk of the most serious cardiovascular events (cardiac ischemia or stroke) was not elevated in AI-only users compared with tamoxifen users. The finding that other CVD events combined were greater in AI users requires further study.

Factors associated with the use of cognitive aids in operating room crises: a cross-sectional study of US hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers.

PubMed

Alidina, Shehnaz; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Sara N; Hannenberg, Alexander A; Hepner, David L; Singer, Sara J; Neville, Bridget A; Sachetta, James R; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Berry, William R

2018-03-26

Operating room (OR) crises are high-acuity events requiring rapid, coordinated management. Medical judgment and decision-making can be compromised in stressful situations, and clinicians may not experience a crisis for many years. A cognitive aid (e.g., checklist) for the most common types of crises in the OR may improve management during unexpected and rare events. While implementation strategies for innovations such as cognitive aids for routine use are becoming better understood, cognitive aids that are rarely used are not yet well understood. We examined organizational context and implementation process factors influencing the use of cognitive aids for OR crises. We conducted a cross-sectional study using a Web-based survey of individuals who had downloaded OR cognitive aids from the websites of Ariadne Labs or Stanford University between January 2013 and January 2016. In this paper, we report on the experience of 368 respondents from US hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers. We analyzed the relationship of more successful implementation (measured as reported regular cognitive aid use during applicable clinical events) with organizational context and with participation in a multi-step implementation process. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify significant predictors of reported, regular OR cognitive aid use during OR crises. In the multivariable logistic regression, small facility size was associated with a fourfold increase in the odds of a facility reporting more successful implementation (p = 0.0092). Completing more implementation steps was also significantly associated with more successful implementation; each implementation step completed was associated with just over 50% higher odds of more successful implementation (p ≤ 0.0001). More successful implementation was associated with leadership support (p < 0.0001) and dedicated time to train staff (p = 0.0189). Less successful implementation was associated with resistance among clinical providers to using cognitive aids (p < 0.0001), absence of an implementation champion (p = 0.0126), and unsatisfactory content or design of the cognitive aid (p = 0.0112). Successful implementation of cognitive aids in ORs was associated with a supportive organizational context and following a multi-step implementation process. Building strong organizational support and following a well-planned multi-step implementation process will likely increase the use of OR cognitive aids during intraoperative crises, which may improve patient outcomes.

Multivariate exploration of non-intrusive load monitoring via spatiotemporal pattern network

DOE PAGES

Liu, Chao; Akintayo, Adedotun; Jiang, Zhanhong; ...

2017-12-18

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) of electrical demand for the purpose of identifying load components has thus far mostly been studied using univariate data, e.g., using only whole building electricity consumption time series to identify a certain type of end-use such as lighting load. However, using additional variables in the form of multivariate time series data may provide more information in terms of extracting distinguishable features in the context of energy disaggregation. In this work, a novel probabilistic graphical modeling approach, namely the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) is proposed for energy disaggregation using multivariate time-series data. The STPN framework is shownmore » to be capable of handling diverse types of multivariate time-series to improve the energy disaggregation performance. The technique outperforms the state of the art factorial hidden Markov models (FHMM) and combinatorial optimization (CO) techniques in multiple real-life test cases. Furthermore, based on two homes' aggregate electric consumption data, a similarity metric is defined for the energy disaggregation of one home using a trained model based on the other home (i.e., out-of-sample case). The proposed similarity metric allows us to enhance scalability via learning supervised models for a few homes and deploying such models to many other similar but unmodeled homes with significantly high disaggregation accuracy.« less

The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis

PubMed Central

Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

2017-01-01

for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of ‘Fourier intrinsic band functions’ (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time–frequency–energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms. PMID:28413352

Multivariate exploration of non-intrusive load monitoring via spatiotemporal pattern network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chao; Akintayo, Adedotun; Jiang, Zhanhong

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) of electrical demand for the purpose of identifying load components has thus far mostly been studied using univariate data, e.g., using only whole building electricity consumption time series to identify a certain type of end-use such as lighting load. However, using additional variables in the form of multivariate time series data may provide more information in terms of extracting distinguishable features in the context of energy disaggregation. In this work, a novel probabilistic graphical modeling approach, namely the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) is proposed for energy disaggregation using multivariate time-series data. The STPN framework is shownmore » to be capable of handling diverse types of multivariate time-series to improve the energy disaggregation performance. The technique outperforms the state of the art factorial hidden Markov models (FHMM) and combinatorial optimization (CO) techniques in multiple real-life test cases. Furthermore, based on two homes' aggregate electric consumption data, a similarity metric is defined for the energy disaggregation of one home using a trained model based on the other home (i.e., out-of-sample case). The proposed similarity metric allows us to enhance scalability via learning supervised models for a few homes and deploying such models to many other similar but unmodeled homes with significantly high disaggregation accuracy.« less

Risk Factors and Mortality Associated with Default from Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment

PubMed Central

Franke, Molly F.; Appleton, Sasha C.; Bayona, Jaime; Arteaga, Fernando; Palacios, Eda; Llaro, Karim; Shin, Sonya S.; Becerra, Mercedes C.; Murray, Megan B.; Mitnick, Carole D.

2008-01-01

Background Completing treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) may be more challenging than completing first-line TB therapy, especially in resource poor settings. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy; (2) quantify mortality among patients who default; and (3) identify risk factors for death following default. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review to identify risk factors for default and conducted home visits to assess mortality among patients who defaulted. Results 67 of 671 patients (10.0%) defaulted. The median time to default was 438 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 152−710), and 40.3% of patients had culture-positive sputum at the time of default. Substance use (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.56, 5.62], p-value [p]=0.001), substandard housing conditions (HR: 1.83, CI: [1.07, 3.11], p=0.03), later year of enrollment (HR: 1.62, CI: [1.09, 2.41], p=0.02) and health district (p=0.02) predicted default in a multivariable analysis. Severe adverse events did not predict default. Of 47 (70.1%) patients who defaulted and were successfully traced, 25 (53.2%) had died. Poor bacteriologic response, less than a year of treatment at default, low education level, and diagnosis with a psychiatric disorder significantly predicted death after default in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions The proportion of patients who defaulted from MDR TB treatment was relatively low. The large proportion of patients who defaulted while culture-positive underscores the public health importance of minimizing default. Prognosis for patients who defaulted was poor. Interventions aimed at preventing default may reduce TB-related mortality. PMID:18462099

Increased recurrence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma after DAA therapy in a hepatitis C-infected Egyptian cohort: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

El Kassas, M; Funk, A L; Salaheldin, M; Shimakawa, Y; Eltabbakh, M; Jean, K; El Tahan, A; Sweedy, A T; Afify, S; Youssef, N F; Esmat, G; Fontanet, A

2018-06-01

In Egypt, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of cancer and direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are administered on a large scale to patients with chronic HCV infection to reduce the risk. In this unique setting, we aimed to determine the association of DAA exposure with early-phase HCC recurrence in patients with a history of HCV-related liver cancer. This was a prospective cohort study of an HCV-infected population from one Egyptian specialized HCC management centre starting from the time of successful HCC intervention. The incidence rates of HCC recurrence between DAA-exposed and nonexposed patients were compared, starting from date of HCC complete radiological response and censoring after 2 years. DAA exposure was treated as time varying. Two Poisson regressions models were used to control for potential differences in the exposed and nonexposed group; multivariable adjustment and balancing using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). We included 116 patients: 53 treated with DAAs and 63 not treated with DAAs. There was 37.7% and 25.4% recurrence in each group after a median of 16.0 and 23.0 months of follow-up, respectively. Poisson regression using IPTW demonstrated an association between DAAs and HCC recurrence with an incidence rate ratio of 3.83 (95% CI: 2.02-7.25), which was similar in the multivariable-adjusted model and various sensitivity analyses. These results add important evidence towards the possible role of DAAs in HCC recurrence and stress the need for further mechanistic studies and clinical trials to accurately confirm this role and to identify patient characteristics that may be associated with this event. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sports and recreational injuries: regional rural injury study‐II: impact on agricultural households and operations

PubMed Central

Kurszewski, L S; Gerberich, S G; Serfass, R C; Ryan, A D; Renier, C M; Alexander, B H; Carlson, K Ferguson; Masten, A S

2006-01-01

Objectives To identify the incidence, severity, and potential risk factors for sports/recreational injuries incurred by children and adults in a five state, rural, Midwest, agricultural household population. Methods Computer assisted telephone interviews that included questions about all injuries were completed for eligible, participating households for 1999; 16 538 people participated, including 8488 children less than 20 years of age. Rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, and causal models guided multivariate models. Results Of a total of 2586 injuries, 1301 (50%) were not related to agricultural activity. Among these, 733 (28%) were associated with sports/recreational activities including multiple person sports (64%), general play activities (19%), and single person sports (14%). The overall rate was 46.4 injury events per 1000 persons per year. Rates for children were 99.4 for boys and 64.3 for girls. For adults (aged 20 and above), rates were 11.9 for men and 4.8 for women. For children, 93% received health care, 44% were restricted for seven or more days, and 18% lost agricultural work time of seven or more days; the respective proportions for adults were 88%, 45%, and 17%. Multivariate analysis for children showed increased risks for Nebraska residents, males, and those 10–14 or 15–19 years. For adults, increased risks were identified for males and those 20–24 years; decreased risks were observed for Nebraska residents and those 45–54 years. Conclusions Sports/recreational activities are an important source of injury with relevant consequences for this population, including significant restricted daily activity and lost agricultural work time. Key findings provide a basis for further study to address these burdens. PMID:16547145

Effects of unplanned treatment interruptions on HIV treatment failure - results from TAHOD.

PubMed

Jiamsakul, Awachana; Kerr, Stephen J; Ng, Oon Tek; Lee, Man Po; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Yunihastuti, Evy; Van Nguyen, Kinh; Pham, Thuy Thanh; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Ditangco, Rossana; Saphonn, Vonthanak; Sim, Benedict L H; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Wong, Wingwai; Kantipong, Pacharee; Zhang, Fujie; Choi, Jun Yong; Pujari, Sanjay; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Oka, Shinichi; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Petersen, Boondarika; Law, Matthew; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran

2016-05-01

Treatment interruptions (TIs) of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) are known to lead to unfavourable treatment outcomes but do still occur in resource-limited settings. We investigated the effects of TI associated with adverse events (AEs) and non-AE-related reasons, including their durations, on treatment failure after cART resumption in HIV-infected individuals in Asia. Patients initiating cART between 2006 and 2013 were included. TI was defined as stopping cART for >1 day. Treatment failure was defined as confirmed virological, immunological or clinical failure. Time to treatment failure during cART was analysed using Cox regression, not including periods off treatment. Covariables with P < 0.10 in univariable analyses were included in multivariable analyses, where P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Of 4549 patients from 13 countries in Asia, 3176 (69.8%) were male and the median age was 34 years. A total of 111 (2.4%) had TIs due to AEs and 135 (3.0%) had TIs for other reasons. Median interruption times were 22 days for AE and 148 days for non-AE TIs. In multivariable analyses, interruptions >30 days were associated with failure (31-180 days HR = 2.66, 95%CI (1.70-4.16); 181-365 days HR = 6.22, 95%CI (3.26-11.86); and >365 days HR = 9.10, 95% CI (4.27-19.38), all P < 0.001, compared to 0-14 days). Reasons for previous TI were not statistically significant (P = 0.158). Duration of interruptions of more than 30 days was the key factor associated with large increases in subsequent risk of treatment failure. If TI is unavoidable, its duration should be minimised to reduce the risk of failure after treatment resumption. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of unplanned treatment interruptions on HIV treatment failure– results from TAHOD

PubMed Central

Jiamsakul, Awachana; Kerr, Stephen J.; Ng, Oon Tek; Lee, Man Po; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Yunihastuti, Evy; Van Nguyen, Kinh; Pham, Thuy Thanh; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Ditangco, Rossana; Saphonn, Vonthanak; Sim, Benedict L. H.; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Wong, Wingwai; Kantipong, Pacharee; Zhang, Fujie; Choi, Jun Yong; Pujari, Sanjay; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Oka, Shinichi; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Petersen, Boondarika; Law, Matthew; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran

2016-01-01

Objectives Treatment interruptions (TI) of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) are known to lead to unfavourable treatment outcomes but do still occur in resource-limited settings. We investigated the effects of TI associated with adverse events (AEs) and non-AE-related reasons, including their durations, on treatment failure after cART resumption in HIV-infected individuals in Asia. Methods Patients initiating cART between 2006-2013 were included. TI was defined as stopping cART for >1 day. Treatment failure was defined as confirmed virological, immunological or clinical failure. Time to treatment failure during cART was analysed using Cox regression, not including periods off treatment. Co-variables with p<0.10 in univariable analyses were included in multivariable analyses, where p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Of 4549 patients from 13 countries in Asia, 3176 (69.8%) were male and the median age was 34 years. A total of 111 (2.4%) had TIs due to AEs and 135 (3.0%) had TIs for other reasons. Median interruption times were 22 days for AE and 148 days for non-AE TIs. In multivariable analyses, interruptions >30 days were associated with failure (31-180 days HR=2.66, 95%CI (1.70-4.16); 181-365 days HR=6.22, 95%CI (3.26-11.86); and >365 days HR=9.10, 95% CI (4.27-19.38), all p<0.001, compared to 0-14 days). Reasons for previous TI were not statistically significant (p=0.158). Conclusions Duration of interruptions of more than 30 days was the key factor associated with large increases in subsequent risk of treatment failure. If TI is unavoidable, its duration should be minimised to reduce the risk of failure after treatment resumption. PMID:26950901

Implementation Challenges for Multivariable Control: What You Did Not Learn in School

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garg, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Multivariable control allows controller designs that can provide decoupled command tracking and robust performance in the presence of modeling uncertainties. Although the last two decades have seen extensive development of multivariable control theory and example applications to complex systems in software/hardware simulations, there are no production flying systems aircraft or spacecraft, that use multivariable control. This is because of the tremendous challenges associated with implementation of such multivariable control designs. Unfortunately, the curriculum in schools does not provide sufficient time to be able to provide an exposure to the students in such implementation challenges. The objective of this paper is to share the lessons learned by a practitioner of multivariable control in the process of applying some of the modern control theory to the Integrated Flight Propulsion Control (IFPC) design for an advanced Short Take-Off Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft simulation.

Differential responses of emergent intertidal coral reef fauna to a large-scale El-Niño southern oscillation event: sponge and coral resilience.

PubMed

Kelmo, Francisco; Bell, James J; Moraes, Simone Souza; Gomes, Rilza da Costa Tourinho; Mariano-Neto, Eduardo; Attrill, Martin J

2014-01-01

There is a paucity of information on the impacts of the 1997-8 El Niño event and subsequent climatic episodes on emergent intertidal coral reef assemblages. Given the environmental variability intertidal reefs experience, such reefs may potentially be more resilient to climatic events and provide important insights into the adaptation of reef fauna to future ocean warming. Here we report the results of a 17-year (1995-2011) biodiversity survey of four emergent coral reef ecosystems in Bahia, Brazil, to assess the impact of a major El Niño event on the reef fauna, and determine any subsequent recovery. The densities of two species of coral, Favia gravida and Siderastrea stellata, did not vary significantly across the survey period, indicating a high degree of tolerance to the El Niño associated stress. However, there were marked decreases in the diversity of other taxa. Molluscs, bryozoans and ascidians suffered severe declines in diversity and abundance and had not recovered to pre-El Niño levels by the end of the study. Echinoderms were reduced to a single species in 1999, Echinometra lucunter, although diversity levels had recovered by 2002. Sponge assemblages were not impacted by the 1997-8 event and their densities had increased by the study end. Multivariate analysis indicated that a stable invertebrate community had re-established on the reefs after the El Niño event, but it has a different overall composition to the pre-El Niño community. It is unclear if community recovery will continue given more time, but our study highlights that any increase in the frequency of large-scale climatic events to more than one a decade is likely to result in a persistent lower-diversity state. Our results also suggest some coral and sponge species are particularly resilient to the El Niño-associated stress and therefore represent suitable models to investigate temperature adaptation in reef organisms.

Hepcidin-25 is related to cardiovascular events in chronic haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

van der Weerd, Neelke C; Grooteman, Muriel P C; Bots, Michiel L; van den Dorpel, Marinus A; den Hoedt, Claire H; Mazairac, Albert H A; Nubé, Menso J; Penne, E Lars; Wetzels, Jack F M; Wiegerinck, Erwin T; Swinkels, Dorine W; Blankestijn, Peter J; Ter Wee, Piet M

2013-12-01

The development of atherosclerosis may be enhanced by iron accumulation in macrophages. Hepcidin-25 is a key regulator of iron homeostasis, which downregulates the cellular iron exporter ferroportin. In haemodialysis (HD) patients, hepcidin-25 levels are increased. Therefore, it is conceivable that hepcidin-25 is associated with all-cause mortality and/or fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events in this patient group. The aim of the current analysis was to study the relationship between hepcidin-25 and all-cause mortality and both fatal and non-fatal CV events in chronic HD patients. Data from 405 chronic HD patients included in the CONvective TRAnsport STudy (NCT00205556) were studied (62% men, age 63.7 ± 13.9 years [mean ± SD]). The median (range) follow-up was 3.0 (0.8-6.6) years. Hepcidin-25 was measured with mass spectrometry. The relationship between hepcidin-25 and all-cause mortality or fatal and non-fatal CV events was investigated with multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. Median (interquartile range) hepcidin-25 level was 13.8 (6.6-22.5) nmol/L. During follow-up, 158 (39%) patients died from any cause and 131 (32%) had a CV event. Hepcidin-25 was associated with all-cause mortality in an unadjusted model [hazard ratio (HR) 1.14 per 10 nmol/L, 95% CI 1.03-1.26; P = 0.01], but not after adjustment for all confounders including high-sensitive C-reactive protein (HR 1.02 per 10 nmol/L, 95% CI 0.87-1.20; P = 0.80). At the same time, hepcidin-25 was significantly related to fatal and non-fatal CV events in a fully adjusted model (HR 1.24 per 10 nmol/L, 95% CI 1.05-1.46, P = 0.01). Hepcidin-25 was associated with fatal and non-fatal CV events, even after adjustment for inflammation. Furthermore, inflammation appears to be a significant confounder in the relation between hepcidin-25 and all-cause mortality. These findings suggest that hepcidin-25 might be a novel determinant of CV disease in chronic HD patients.

Modified Weekly Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy Is Acceptable in Postoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

PubMed Central

Lu, Hsueh-Ju; Yang, Chao-Chun; Wang, Ling-Wei; Chu, Pen-Yuan; Tai, Shyh-Kuan; Chen, Ming-Huang; Yang, Muh-Hwa; Chang, Peter Mu-Hsin

2015-01-01

Background. Triweekly cisplatin-based postoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) has high intolerance and toxicities in locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC). We evaluated the effect of a modified weekly cisplatin-based chemotherapy in postoperative CCRT. Methods. A total of 117 patients with LAHNC were enrolled between December 2007 and December 2012. Survival, compliance/adverse events, and independent prognostic factors were analyzed. Results. Median follow-up time was 30.0 (3.1–73.0) months. Most patients completed the entire course of postoperative CCRT (radiotherapy ≥ 60 Gy, 94.9%; ≥6 times weekly chemotherapy, 75.2%). Only 17.1% patients required hospital admission. The most common adverse effect was grade 3/4 mucositis (28.2%). No patient died due to protocol-related adverse effects. Multivariate analysis revealed the following independent prognostic factors: oropharyngeal cancer, extracapsular spread, and total radiation dose. Two-year progression-free survival and overall survival rates were 70.9% and 79.5%, respectively. Conclusion. Modified weekly cisplatin-based chemotherapy is an acceptable regimen in postoperative CCRT for LAHNC. PMID:25793192

Predictors of Recurrence, Progression, and Retreatment in Basilar Tip Aneurysms: A Location-Controlled Analysis.

PubMed

Abecassis, Isaac Josh; Sen, Rajeev D; Barber, Jason; Shetty, Rakshith; Kelly, Cory M; Ghodke, Basavaraj V; Hallam, Danial K; Levitt, Michael R; Kim, Louis J; Sekhar, Laligam N

2018-06-14

Endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms is associated with higher rates of recurrence and retreatment, though contemporary rates and risk factors for basilar tip aneurysms (BTAs) are less well-described. To characterize progression, retreatement, and retreated progression of BTAs treated with microsurgical or endovascular interventions. We retrospectively reviewed records for 141 consecutive BTA patients. We included 158 anterior communicating artery (ACoA) and 118 middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms as controls. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to calculate rates of progression (recurrence of previously obliterated aneurysms and progression of known residual aneurysm dome or neck), retreatment, and retreated progression. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to characterize 24-mo event rates for primary outcome prediction. Of 141 BTA patients, 62.4% were ruptured and 37.6% were unruptured. Average radiographical follow-up was 33 mo. Among ruptured aneurysms treated with clipping, there were 2 rehemorrhages due to recurrence (6.1%), and none in any other cohorts. Overall rates of progression (28.9%), retreatment (28.9%), and retreated progression (24.7%) were not significantly different between surgical and endovascular subgroups, though ruptured aneurysms had higher event rates. Multivariate modeling confirmed rupture status (P = .003, hazard ratio = 0.14) and aneurysm dome width (P = .005, hazard ratio = 1.23) as independent predictors of progression requiring retreatment. In a separate multivariate analysis with ACoA and MCA aneurysms, basilar tip location was an independent predictor of progression, retreatment, and retreated progression. BTAs have higher rates of progression and retreated progression than other aneurysm locations, independent of treatment modality. Rupture status and dome width are risk factors for progression requiring retreatment.

A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

2017-12-01

Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA-Europe Environment Agency, the Italian Civil Protection and ISPRA (the Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research). Only two levee failures events occurred in the sub-basin of Era River have been detected and analysed. The estimated return period with the univariate model of flood peak is greater than 2 and 5 years while the BTr is greater of 25 and 30 years respectively.

New strategy to identify radicals in a time evolving EPR data set by multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares.

PubMed

Fadel, Maya Abou; de Juan, Anna; Vezin, Hervé; Duponchel, Ludovic

2016-12-01

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy is a powerful technique that is able to characterize radicals formed in kinetic reactions. However, spectral characterization of individual chemical species is often limited or even unmanageable due to the severe kinetic and spectral overlap among species in kinetic processes. Therefore, we applied, for the first time, multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) method to EPR time evolving data sets to model and characterize the different constituents in a kinetic reaction. Here we demonstrate the advantage of multivariate analysis in the investigation of radicals formed along the kinetic process of hydroxycoumarin in alkaline medium. Multiset analysis of several EPR-monitored kinetic experiments performed in different conditions revealed the individual paramagnetic centres as well as their kinetic profiles. The results obtained by MCR-ALS method demonstrate its prominent potential in analysis of EPR time evolved spectra. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate analysis of longitudinal rates of change.

PubMed

Bryan, Matthew; Heagerty, Patrick J

2016-12-10

Longitudinal data allow direct comparison of the change in patient outcomes associated with treatment or exposure. Frequently, several longitudinal measures are collected that either reflect a common underlying health status, or characterize processes that are influenced in a similar way by covariates such as exposure or demographic characteristics. Statistical methods that can combine multivariate response variables into common measures of covariate effects have been proposed in the literature. Current methods for characterizing the relationship between covariates and the rate of change in multivariate outcomes are limited to select models. For example, 'accelerated time' methods have been developed which assume that covariates rescale time in longitudinal models for disease progression. In this manuscript, we detail an alternative multivariate model formulation that directly structures longitudinal rates of change and that permits a common covariate effect across multiple outcomes. We detail maximum likelihood estimation for a multivariate longitudinal mixed model. We show via asymptotic calculations the potential gain in power that may be achieved with a common analysis of multiple outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to the analysis of a trivariate outcome for infant growth and compare rates of change for HIV infected and uninfected infants. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inflammation, negative nitrogen balance, and outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Badjatia, Neeraj; Monahan, Aimee; Carpenter, Amanda; Zimmerman, Jacqueline; Schmidt, J Michael; Claassen, Jan; Connolly, E Sander; Mayer, Stephan A; Karmally, Wahida; Seres, David

2015-02-17

To analyze the impact of inflammation and negative nitrogen balance (NBAL) on nutritional status and outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). This was a prospective observational study of SAH patients admitted between May 2008 and June 2012. Measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), transthyretin (TTR), resting energy expenditure (REE), and NBAL (g/day) were performed over 4 preset time periods during the first 14 postbleed days (PBD) in addition to daily caloric intake. Factors associated with REE and NBAL were analyzed with multivariable linear regression. Hospital-acquired infections (HAI) were tracked daily for time-to-event analyses. Poor outcome at 3 months was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 4 and assessed by multivariable logistic regression. There were 229 patients with an average age of 55 ± 15 years. Higher REE was associated with younger age (p = 0.02), male sex (p < 0.001), higher Hunt Hess grade (p = 0.001), and higher modified Fisher score (p = 0.01). Negative NBAL was associated with lower caloric intake (p < 0.001), higher body mass index (p < 0.001), aneurysm clipping (p = 0.03), and higher CRP:TTR ratio (p = 0.03). HAIs developed in 53 (23%) patients on mean PBD 8 ± 3. Older age (p = 0.002), higher Hunt Hess (p < 0.001), lower caloric intake (p = 0.001), and negative NBAL (p = 0.04) predicted time to first HAI. Poor outcome at 3 months was associated with higher Hunt Hess grade (p < 0.001), older age (p < 0.001), negative NBAL (p = 0.01), HAI (p = 0.03), higher CRP:TTR ratio (p = 0.04), higher body mass index (p = 0.03), and delayed cerebral ischemia (p = 0.04). Negative NBAL after SAH is influenced by inflammation and associated with an increased risk of HAI and poor outcome. Underfeeding and systemic inflammation are potential modifiable risk factors for negative NBAL and poor outcome after SAH. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

64Cu-DOTATATE PET/MRI for Detection of Activated Macrophages in Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaques: Studies in Patients Undergoing Endarterectomy.

PubMed

Pedersen, Sune Folke; Sandholt, Benjamin Vikjær; Keller, Sune Høgild; Hansen, Adam Espe; Clemmensen, Andreas Ettrup; Sillesen, Henrik; Højgaard, Liselotte; Ripa, Rasmus Sejersten; Kjær, Andreas

2015-07-01

A feature of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid artery is high activity and abundance of lesion macrophages. There is consensus that this is of importance for plaque vulnerability, which may lead to clinical events, such as stroke and transient ischemic attack. We used positron emission tomography (PET) and the novel PET ligand [(64)Cu] [1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-N,N',N″,N‴-tetraacetic acid]-d-Phe1,Tyr3-octreotate ((64)Cu-DOTATATE) to specifically target macrophages via the somatostatin receptor subtype-2 in vivo. Ten patients underwent simultaneous PET/MRI to measure (64)Cu-DOTATATE uptake in carotid artery plaques before carotid endarterectomy. (64)Cu-DOTATATE uptake was significantly higher in symptomatic plaque versus the contralateral carotid artery (P<0.001). Subsequently, a total of 62 plaque segments were assessed for gene expression of selected markers of plaque vulnerability using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. These results were compared with in vivo (64)Cu-DOTATATE uptake calculated as the mean standardized uptake value. Univariate analysis of real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and PET showed that cluster of differentiation 163 (CD163) and CD68 gene expression correlated significantly but weakly with mean standardized uptake value in scans performed 85 minutes post injection (P<0.001 and P=0.015, respectively). Subsequent multivariate analysis showed that CD163 correlated independently with (64)Cu-DOTATATE uptake (P=0.031) whereas CD68 did not contribute significantly to the final model. The novel PET tracer (64)Cu-DOTATATE accumulates in atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid artery. CD163 gene expression correlated independently with (64)Cu-DOTATATE uptake measured by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction in the final multivariate model, indicating that (64)Cu-DOTATATE PET is detecting alternatively activated macrophages. This association could potentially improve noninvasive identification and characterization of vulnerable plaques. © 2015 The Authors.

Virtual Machine Language 2.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riedel, Joseph E.; Grasso, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

VML (Virtual Machine Language) is an advanced computing environment that allows spacecraft to operate using mechanisms ranging from simple, time-oriented sequencing to advanced, multicomponent reactive systems. VML has developed in four evolutionary stages. VML 0 is a core execution capability providing multi-threaded command execution, integer data types, and rudimentary branching. VML 1 added named parameterized procedures, extensive polymorphism, data typing, branching, looping issuance of commands using run-time parameters, and named global variables. VML 2 added for loops, data verification, telemetry reaction, and an open flight adaptation architecture. VML 2.1 contains major advances in control flow capabilities for executable state machines. On the resource requirements front, VML 2.1 features a reduced memory footprint in order to fit more capability into modestly sized flight processors, and endian-neutral data access for compatibility with Intel little-endian processors. Sequence packaging has been improved with object-oriented programming constructs and the use of implicit (rather than explicit) time tags on statements. Sequence event detection has been significantly enhanced with multi-variable waiting, which allows a sequence to detect and react to conditions defined by complex expressions with multiple global variables. This multi-variable waiting serves as the basis for implementing parallel rule checking, which in turn, makes possible executable state machines. The new state machine feature in VML 2.1 allows the creation of sophisticated autonomous reactive systems without the need to develop expensive flight software. Users specify named states and transitions, along with the truth conditions required, before taking transitions. Transitions with the same signal name allow separate state machines to coordinate actions: the conditions distributed across all state machines necessary to arm a particular signal are evaluated, and once found true, that signal is raised. The selected signal then causes all identically named transitions in all present state machines to be taken simultaneously. VML 2.1 has relevance to all potential space missions, both manned and unmanned. It was under consideration for use on Orion.

Impact of concomitant mitral valve repair for severe mitral regurgitation at the time of continuous-flow left ventricular assist device insertion.

PubMed

Sandoval, Elena; Singh, Steve K; Carillo, Julius A; Baldwin, Andrew C W; Ono, Masahiro; Anand, Jatin; Frazier, O H; Mallidi, Hari R

2017-10-01

Mitral regurgitation (MR) is common in patients with end-stage heart failure. We assessed the effect of performing concomitant mitral valve repair during continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (CF-LVAD) implantation in patients with severe preoperative MR. We performed a single-centre, retrospective review of all patients who underwent CF-LVAD implantation between December 1999 and December 2013 (n = 469). Patients with severe preoperative MR (n = 78) were identified and then stratified according to whether they underwent concomitant valve repair. Univariate and survival analyses were performed, and multivariable regression was used to determine predictors of survival. Of the 78 patients with severe MR, 21 underwent valve repair at the time of CF-LVAD implantation (repair group) and 57 did not (non-repair group). A comparison of the 2 groups showed significant differences between groups: INTERMACS I 16.985 vs 9.52%, (P = 0.039), cardiopulmonary bypass time 82.09 vs 109.4 min (P = 0.0042) and the use of HeartMate II 63.16 vs 100% (P = 0.001). Survival analysis suggested trends towards improved survival and a lower incidence of heart failure-related readmissions in the repair group. Multivariable regression analysis showed no significant independent predictors of survival (mitral valve repair: odds ratio 0.4, 95% confidence interval 0.8-1.5; P = 0.2). Despite the lack of statistical significance, trends towards improved survival and a lower incidence of heart failure events suggest that mitral valve repair may be beneficial in patients undergoing CF-LVAD implantation. Given the known relationship between severe MR and mortality, further study is encouraged to confirm the value of mitral valve repair in these patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Inflammation, negative nitrogen balance, and outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Monahan, Aimee; Carpenter, Amanda; Zimmerman, Jacqueline; Schmidt, J. Michael; Claassen, Jan; Connolly, E. Sander; Mayer, Stephan A.; Karmally, Wahida; Seres, David

2015-01-01

Objective: To analyze the impact of inflammation and negative nitrogen balance (NBAL) on nutritional status and outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: This was a prospective observational study of SAH patients admitted between May 2008 and June 2012. Measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), transthyretin (TTR), resting energy expenditure (REE), and NBAL (g/day) were performed over 4 preset time periods during the first 14 postbleed days (PBD) in addition to daily caloric intake. Factors associated with REE and NBAL were analyzed with multivariable linear regression. Hospital-acquired infections (HAI) were tracked daily for time-to-event analyses. Poor outcome at 3 months was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≥4 and assessed by multivariable logistic regression. Results: There were 229 patients with an average age of 55 ± 15 years. Higher REE was associated with younger age (p = 0.02), male sex (p < 0.001), higher Hunt Hess grade (p = 0.001), and higher modified Fisher score (p = 0.01). Negative NBAL was associated with lower caloric intake (p < 0.001), higher body mass index (p < 0.001), aneurysm clipping (p = 0.03), and higher CRP:TTR ratio (p = 0.03). HAIs developed in 53 (23%) patients on mean PBD 8 ± 3. Older age (p = 0.002), higher Hunt Hess (p < 0.001), lower caloric intake (p = 0.001), and negative NBAL (p = 0.04) predicted time to first HAI. Poor outcome at 3 months was associated with higher Hunt Hess grade (p < 0.001), older age (p < 0.001), negative NBAL (p = 0.01), HAI (p = 0.03), higher CRP:TTR ratio (p = 0.04), higher body mass index (p = 0.03), and delayed cerebral ischemia (p = 0.04). Conclusions: Negative NBAL after SAH is influenced by inflammation and associated with an increased risk of HAI and poor outcome. Underfeeding and systemic inflammation are potential modifiable risk factors for negative NBAL and poor outcome after SAH. PMID:25596503

Temporal changes in outcomes of women and men undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusion: 2005-2013.

PubMed

Toma, Aurel; Stähli, Barbara E; Gick, Michael; Ferenc, Miroslaw; Mashayekhi, Kambis; Buettner, Heinz Joachim; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Gebhard, Catherine

2018-06-01

Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO) has undergone impressive progress during the last decade, both in strategies and equipment. It is unknown whether technical refinement has translated into improved outcomes in women undergoing CTO-PCI. A total of 2002 consecutive patients (17% females, mean age 65.2 ± 10.7 years) undergoing PCI of at least one CTO lesion at our center between 01/2005 and 12/2013 were evaluated. The incidence of adverse events was compared between two time series (2005-2009 and 2010-2013). A significant increase in adverse lesion characteristics over time was noted in both, women and men (p < 0.001), while technical success rates significantly increased in men but not in women (p trend  < 0.001 in men and p trend =0.9 in women). The incidence of procedural complications was significantly higher in women as compared to men and increased over the study period in women (p < 0.05) but not in men. Accordingly, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified female sex as a strong predictor of PCI-related complications in recent years, while this was not the case in earlier years (adjusted HR 2.03, 95% CI 0.62-6.6, p = 0.2 and adjusted HR 4.7, 95% CI 1.8-12.3, p = 0.002, respectively, p < 0.001 for log LH ratio). In addition, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after a 3-year follow-up significantly declined in men (log rank = 0.046), while no changes were observed in women. While higher success rates and a reduced rate of MACE have been achieved in men, the incidence of procedural complications in women undergoing CTO-PCI has increased over time.

Long-Term Outcome in Levothyroxine Treated Patients With Subclinical Hypothyroidism and Concomitant Heart Disease.

PubMed

Andersen, Mette Nygaard; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Kristensen, Søren Lund; Faber, Jens; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar H; Selmer, Christian

2016-11-01

Subclinical hypothyroidism is a common condition that may lead to impaired cardiac function. This study sought to examine the effects of levothyroxine treatment in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism and heart disease. This was a register-based historical cohort study. The study was composed of Danish primary care patients and hospital outpatients age 18 years and older with established heart disease who were diagnosed with subclinical hypothyroidism in 1997-2011. Patients were stratified according to whether they claimed a subsequent prescription of levothyroxine. Event rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated by use of time-dependent multivariable Poisson regression models. Measures included all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), defined as cardiovascular death, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infaction and stroke, and all-cause hospital admissions. Of 61 611 patients with a diagnosis of cardiac disease having their first time thyroid function testing, 1192 patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (mean age 73.6 [SD ± 13.3] y, 63.8% female) were included, of whom 136 (11.4%) were treated with levothyroxine. During a median follow-up time of 5.6 y (interquartile range, 6.5 y), 694 (58.2%) patients died. Patients treated with levothyroxine displayed no significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted IRR, 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.52), MACE (adjusted IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.80-1.45), or hospital admission (adjusted IRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.71-1.24), when compared with patients not treated with levothyroxine. Levothyroxine treatment in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism and heart disease was not associated with a significant benefit nor risk of all-cause mortality, MACE, or hospital admission in this large real-world cohort study.

DRUG USE PATTERNS PREDICT RISK OF NON-FATAL OVERDOSE AMONG STREET-INVOLVED YOUTH IN A CANADIAN SETTING

PubMed Central

Mitra, Goldis; Wood, Evan; Nguyen, Paul; Kerr, Thomas; DeBeck, Kora

2015-01-01

Background Non-fatal drug overdose is a major cause of morbidity among people who use drugs, although few studies have examined this risk among street-involved youth. We sought to determine the risk factors associated with non-fatal overdose among Canadian street-involved youth who reported illicit drug use. Methods Using data from a prospective cohort of street-involved youth in Vancouver, Canada, we identified youth without a history of overdose and employed Cox regression analyses to determine factors associated with time to non-fatal overdose between September 2005 and May 2012. Results Among 615 participants, 98 (15.9%) reported a non-fatal overdose event during follow-up, resulting in an incidence density of 7.67 cases per 100 person-years. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, binge drug use (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 2.84), non-injection crystal methamphetamine use (AHR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.12 – 2.58), non-injection prescription opiate use (AHR = 2.56; 95% CI = 1.36 – 4.82), injection prescription opiate use (AHR = 2.49; 95% CI = 1.40 – 4.45) and injection heroin use (AHR = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.14 – 3.00) were positively associated with time to non-fatal overdose. Social, behavioural and demographic factors were not significantly associated with time to non-fatal overdose event. Conclusions Rates of non-fatal overdose were high among street-involved youth. Drug use patterns, in particular prescription opiate use, were associated with overdose. These findings underscore the importance of addiction treatment and prevention efforts aimed at reducing the risk of overdose among youth. PMID:26096535

A hybrid clustering approach for multivariate time series - A case study applied to failure analysis in a gas turbine.

PubMed

Fontes, Cristiano Hora; Budman, Hector

2017-11-01

A clustering problem involving multivariate time series (MTS) requires the selection of similarity metrics. This paper shows the limitations of the PCA similarity factor (SPCA) as a single metric in nonlinear problems where there are differences in magnitude of the same process variables due to expected changes in operation conditions. A novel method for clustering MTS based on a combination between SPCA and the average-based Euclidean distance (AED) within a fuzzy clustering approach is proposed. Case studies involving either simulated or real industrial data collected from a large scale gas turbine are used to illustrate that the hybrid approach enhances the ability to recognize normal and fault operating patterns. This paper also proposes an oversampling procedure to create synthetic multivariate time series that can be useful in commonly occurring situations involving unbalanced data sets. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of information content of structured and narrative text data sources on the example of medication intensification.

PubMed

Turchin, Alexander; Shubina, Maria; Breydo, Eugene; Pendergrass, Merri L; Einbinder, Jonathan S

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE To compare information obtained from narrative and structured electronic sources using anti-hypertensive medication intensification as an example clinical issue of interest. DESIGN A retrospective cohort study of 5,634 hypertensive patients with diabetes from 2000 to 2005. MEASUREMENTS The authors determined the fraction of medication intensification events documented in both narrative and structured data in the electronic medical record. The authors analyzed the relationship between provider characteristics and concordance between intensifications in narrative and structured data. As there is no gold standard data source for medication information, the authors clinically validated medication intensification information by assessing the relationship between documented medication intensification and the patients' blood pressure in univariate and multivariate models. RESULTS Overall, 5,627 (30.9%) of 18,185 medication intensification events were documented in both sources. For a medication intensification event documented in narrative notes the probability of a concordant entry in structured records increased by 11% for each study year (p < 0.0001) and decreased by 19% for each decade of provider age (p = 0.035). In a multivariate model that adjusted for patient demographics and intraphysician correlations, an increase of one medication intensification per month documented in either narrative or structured data were associated with a 5-8 mm Hg monthly decrease in systolic and 1.5-4 mm Hg decrease in diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.0001 for all). CONCLUSION Narrative and structured electronic data sources provide complementary information on anti-hypertensive medication intensification. Clinical validity of information in both sources was demonstrated by correlation with changes in blood pressure.

Managing glycaemia in older people with type 2 diabetes: A retrospective, primary care-based cohort study, with economic assessment of patient outcomes.

PubMed

Gordon, Jason; McEwan, Phil; Evans, Marc; Puelles, Jorge; Sinclair, Alan

2017-05-01

To describe the relative health and economic outcomes associated with different second-line therapeutic approaches to manage glycaemia in older type 2 diabetes patients requiring escalation from metformin monotherapy. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink database was used to inform a retrospective observational cohort study of patients with type 2 diabetes treated with metformin monotherapy requiring escalation (addition or switch) to a second-line oral regimen from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2014. Primary outcomes included time to first event (any event, myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, or composite of MI/stroke [major adverse cardiovascular event; MACE]) and total event rate. The health economic consequences associated with the choice of second-line treatment in older patients were assessed using the CORE Diabetes Model. A total of 10 484 patients were included; the majority escalated to second-line treatment with metformin + sulphonylurea (SU; 42%) or switched to SU monotherapy (28%). In multivariate adjusted analyses, total event rates for MACE with metformin + dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor were significantly lower than with metformin + SU (0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.98), driven by a lower MI rate in the metformin + DPP-4 inhibitor group (0.52, 95% CI 0.27-0.99). Economic analyses estimated that metformin + DPP-4 inhibitor treatment was associated with the largest gain in health benefit, and cost-effectiveness ratios were favourable (<£30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year) for all second-line treatment scenarios. With respect to treatment choice, data from the present study support the notion of prescribing beyond metformin + SU, as alternative regimens have been shown to be associated with reduced outcomes risk and value for money. © 2016 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Microvascular function predicts cardiovascular events in primary prevention: long-term results from the Firefighters and Their Endothelium (FATE) study.

PubMed

Anderson, Todd J; Charbonneau, Francois; Title, Lawrence M; Buithieu, Jean; Rose, M Sarah; Conradson, Heather; Hildebrand, Kathy; Fung, Marinda; Verma, Subodh; Lonn, Eva M

2011-01-18

Biomarkers of atherosclerosis may refine clinical decision making in individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease. The purpose of the study was to determine the prognostic significance of endothelial function and other vascular markers in apparently healthy men. The cohort consisted of 1574 men (age, 49.4 years) free of vascular disease. Measurements included flow-mediated dilation and its microvascular stimulus, hyperemic velocity, carotid intima-media thickness, and C-reactive protein. Cox proportional hazard models evaluated the relationship between vascular markers, Framingham risk score, and time to a first composite cardiovascular end point of vascular death, revascularization, myocardial infarction, angina, and stroke. Subjects had low median Framingham risk score (7.9%). Cardiovascular events occurred in 71 subjects (111 events) over a mean follow-up of 7.2±1.7 years. Flow-mediated dilation was not associated with subsequent cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 0.92; P=0.54). Both hyperemic velocity (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.90; P=0.006) and carotid intima-media thickness (hazard ratio, 1.45; confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.83; P=0.002) but not C-reactive protein (P=0.35) were related to events in a multivariable analysis that included Framingham risk score (per unit SD). Furthermore, the addition of hyperemic velocity to Framingham risk score resulted in a net clinical reclassification improvement of 28.7% (P<0.001) after 5 years of follow-up in the intermediate-risk group. Overall net reclassification improvement for hyperemic velocity was 6.9% (P=0.24). In men, hyperemic velocity, the stimulus for flow-mediated dilation, but not flow-mediated dilation itself was a significant risk marker for adverse cardiovascular outcomes. The prognostic value was additive to traditional risk factors and carotid intima-media thickness. Hyperemic velocity, a newly described marker of microvascular function, is a novel tool that may improve risk stratification of lower-risk healthy men.

A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

PubMed

Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

2013-12-01

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Significance of prior percutaneous revascularisation in patients with acute coronary syndromes: insights from the prospective PROSPECT registry.

PubMed

Iñiguez, Andrés; Brener, Sorin J; Jiménez, Victor A; Maehara, Akiko; Mintz, Gary S; Xu, Ke; Weisz, Giora; Lansky, Alexandra J; De Bruyne, Bernard; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W

2016-04-20

Prior percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is increasingly encountered in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, with uncertain significance. We sought to evaluate the impact of prior PCI in ACS patients. Patients with ACS enrolled in the prospective PROSPECT registry underwent three-vessel intravascular ultrasound and virtual histology evaluation after successful PCI of the culprit lesion(s). We identified patients with prior PCI (>6 months before index ACS) and compared their outcomes to those without prior PCI. Time-to-event for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was estimated up to three years, and the independent association between prior PCI and MACE was evaluated in a multivariable model. Among 696 patients enrolled, 77 (11.1%) had prior PCI. They were older and more likely to have prior myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, and congestive heart failure. At three years, patients with prior PCI had significantly higher rates of cardiac death, rehospitalisation for worsening angina, and MACE (adjusted HR=1.73 [95% CI: 1.09, 2.75], p=0.02), independent of other comorbidities and intravascular ultrasound findings. Prior PCI was noted in over 10% of patients with ACS and was associated with higher mortality and morbidity, independent of other comorbidities. Prior PCI should be considered a high-risk feature when evaluating ACS patients.

Synchrotron FTIR microspectroscopy reveals early adipogenic differentiation of human mesenchymal stem cells at single-cell level

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhixiao; University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049; Tang, Yuzhao

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) have been used as an ideal in vitro model to study human adipogenesis. However, little knowledge of the early stage differentiation greatly hinders our understanding on the mechanism of the adipogenesis processes. In this study, synchrotron radiation-based Fourier transform infrared (SR-FTIR) microspectroscopy was applied to track the global structural and compositional changes of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids inside individual hMSCs along the time course. The multivariate analysis of the SR-FTIR spectra distinguished the dynamic and significant changes of the lipids and nucleic acid at early differentiation stage. Importantly, changes of lipid structure during early daysmore » (Day 1–3) of differentiation might serve as a potential biomarker in identifying the state in early differentiation at single cell level. These results proved that SR-FTIR is a powerful tool to study the stem cell fate determination and early lipogenesis events. - Highlights: • Molecular events occur in the early adipogenic differentiation stage of hMSCs are studied by SR-FTIR. • SR-FTIR data suggest that lipids may play an important role in hMSCs determination. • As potential biomarkers, lipids peaks can identify the state of cell in early differentiation stage at single-cell level.« less

In-hospital outcome in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction and right bundle branch block. A sub-study from RENASICA II, a national multicenter registry.

PubMed

Juárez-Herrera, Ursulo; Jerjes Sánchez, Carlos; González-Pacheco, Héctor; Martínez-Sánchez, Carlos

2010-01-01

Compare in-hospital outcome in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction with right versus left bundle branch block. RENASICA II, a national Mexican registry enrolled 8098 patients with final diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome secondary to ischemic heart disease. In 4555 STEMI patients, 545 had bundle branch block, 318 (58.3%) with right and 225 patients with left (41.6%). Both groups were compared in terms of in-hospital outcome through major cardiovascular adverse events; (cardiovascular death, recurrent ischemia and reinfarction). Multivariable analysis was performed to identify in-hospital mortality risk among right and left bundle branch block patients. There were not statistical differences in both groups regarding baseline characteristics, time of ischemia, myocardial infarction location, ventricular dysfunction and reperfusion strategies. In-hospital outcome in bundle branch block group was characterized by a high incidence of major cardiovascular adverse events with a trend to higher mortality in patients with right bundle branch block (OR 1.70, CI 1.19 - 2.42, p < 0.003), compared to left bundle branch block patients. In this sub-study right bundle branch block accompanying ST-elevation myocardial infarction of any location at emergency room presentation was an independent predictor of high in-hospital mortality.

Multivariate analysis techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bendavid, Josh; Fisher, Wade C.; Junk, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

The end products of experimental data analysis are designed to be simple and easy to understand: hypothesis tests and measurements of parameters. But, the experimental data themselves are voluminous and complex. Furthermore, in modern collider experiments, many petabytes of data must be processed in search of rare new processes which occur together with much more copious background processes that are of less interest to the task at hand. The systematic uncertainties on the background may be larger than the expected signal in many cases. The statistical power of an analysis and its sensitivity to systematic uncertainty can therefore usually bothmore » be improved by separating signal events from background events with higher efficiency and purity.« less

Wavelet principal component analysis of fetal movement counting data preceding hospital examinations due to decreased fetal movement: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Fetal movement (FM) counting is a simple and widely used method of assessing fetal well-being. However, little is known about what women perceive as decreased fetal movement (DFM) and how maternally perceived DFM is reflected in FM charts. Methods We analyzed FM counting data from 148 DFM events occurring in 137 pregnancies. The women counted FM daily from pregnancy week 24 until birth using a modified count-to-ten procedure. Common temporal patterns for the two weeks preceding hospital examination due to DFM were extracted from the FM charts using wavelet principal component analysis; a statistical methodology particularly developed for modeling temporal data with sudden changes, i.e. spikes that are frequently found in FM data. The association of the extracted temporal patterns with fetal complications was assessed by including the individuals’ scores on the wavelet principal components as explanatory variables in multivariable logistic regression analyses for two outcome measures: (i) complications identified during DFM-related consultations (n = 148) and (ii) fetal compromise at the time of consultation (including relevant information about birth outcome and placental pathology). The latter outcome variable was restricted to the DFM events occurring within 21 days before birth (n = 76). Results Analyzing the 148 and 76 DFM events, the first three main temporal FM counting patterns explained 87.2% and 87.4%, respectively, of all temporal variation in the FM charts. These three temporal patterns represented overall counting times, sudden spikes around the time of DFM events, and an inverted U-shaped pattern, explaining 75.3%, 8.6%, and 3.3% and 72.5%, 9.6%, and 5.3% of variation in the total cohort and subsample, respectively. Neither of the temporal patterns was significantly associated with the two outcome measures. Conclusions Acknowledging that sudden, large changes in fetal activity may be underreported in FM charts, our study showed that the temporal FM counting patterns in the two weeks preceding DFM-related consultation contributed little to identify clinically important changes in perceived FM. It thus provides insufficient information for giving detailed advice to women on when to contact health care providers. The importance of qualitative features of maternally perceived DFM should be further explored. PMID:24007565

Wavelet principal component analysis of fetal movement counting data preceding hospital examinations due to decreased fetal movement: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Winje, Brita Askeland; Røislien, Jo; Saastad, Eli; Eide, Jorid; Riley, Christopher Finne; Stray-Pedersen, Babill; Frøen, J Frederik

2013-09-05

Fetal movement (FM) counting is a simple and widely used method of assessing fetal well-being. However, little is known about what women perceive as decreased fetal movement (DFM) and how maternally perceived DFM is reflected in FM charts. We analyzed FM counting data from 148 DFM events occurring in 137 pregnancies. The women counted FM daily from pregnancy week 24 until birth using a modified count-to-ten procedure. Common temporal patterns for the two weeks preceding hospital examination due to DFM were extracted from the FM charts using wavelet principal component analysis; a statistical methodology particularly developed for modeling temporal data with sudden changes, i.e. spikes that are frequently found in FM data. The association of the extracted temporal patterns with fetal complications was assessed by including the individuals' scores on the wavelet principal components as explanatory variables in multivariable logistic regression analyses for two outcome measures: (i) complications identified during DFM-related consultations (n = 148) and (ii) fetal compromise at the time of consultation (including relevant information about birth outcome and placental pathology). The latter outcome variable was restricted to the DFM events occurring within 21 days before birth (n = 76). Analyzing the 148 and 76 DFM events, the first three main temporal FM counting patterns explained 87.2% and 87.4%, respectively, of all temporal variation in the FM charts. These three temporal patterns represented overall counting times, sudden spikes around the time of DFM events, and an inverted U-shaped pattern, explaining 75.3%, 8.6%, and 3.3% and 72.5%, 9.6%, and 5.3% of variation in the total cohort and subsample, respectively. Neither of the temporal patterns was significantly associated with the two outcome measures. Acknowledging that sudden, large changes in fetal activity may be underreported in FM charts, our study showed that the temporal FM counting patterns in the two weeks preceding DFM-related consultation contributed little to identify clinically important changes in perceived FM. It thus provides insufficient information for giving detailed advice to women on when to contact health care providers. The importance of qualitative features of maternally perceived DFM should be further explored.

Cerebrovascular accidents after percutaneous coronary interventions from 2002 to 2014: Incidence, outcomes, and associated variables.

PubMed

Didier, Romain; Gaglia, Michael A; Koifman, Edward; Kiramijyan, Sarkis; Negi, Smita I; Omar, Al Fazir; Gai, Jiaxing; Torguson, Rebecca; Pichard, Augusto D; Waksman, Ron

2016-02-01

Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and transient ischemic attack (TIA) related to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are relatively rare complications, but they are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Given the evolution of both CVA risk and PCI techniques over time, this study was conducted to evaluate trends in CVA and TIA associated with PCI and to identify variables associated with neurologic events. Consecutive patients undergoing PCI at the Washington Hospital Center between January 2002 and June 2015 were included. Prespecified data were prospectively collected, including baseline and procedural characteristics, in-hospital outcomes, and 1-year mortality. The subjects who had a CVA or TIA during or immediately after PCI were compared with those without procedure-associated CVA or TIA. Overall, 25,626 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 65.0 ± 12.4 years, 16,949 (65.2%) were male, and 7,436 (28.6%) were African American. From 2002 to 2015, 110 neurologic events post-PCI were diagnosed (0.43%); this included 86 CVAs (0.34%) and 24 TIAs (0.09%). The annual rate of postprocedural neurologic events was 0.42% ± 0.12%. There were significant changes in baseline risk factors over time, with increasing age, incidence of insulin-dependent diabetes, and chronic kidney disease. Patients with neurologic events were more often African American (43.6% vs 28.6%, P < .001) with prior history of CVA (24.5% vs 7.8%, P < .001), chronic renal insufficiency (26.6% vs 15.2%, P < .001), and insulin-dependent diabetes (19.1% vs 12.4%, P = .03). Acute myocardial infarction (56% vs 30.4%, P < .001) and cardiogenic shock (20.2% vs 3%, P < .001) were also more common among patients with neurologic events post-PCI. After multivariable adjustment, use of an intraaortic balloon pump was strongly associated with neurologic events (odds ratio [OR] 4.9, 95% CI 2.7-8.8, P < .001), as was prior CVA (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.4, P = .002) and African American race (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-3.9, P < .001); there was a borderline association with the use of a thrombus extraction device (OR 1.7, 95% CI 0.9-3.2, P = .09). In-hospital mortality (20.0% vs 1.5%, P < .001) and 1-year mortality (45.0% vs 7.3%, P < .001) were also much higher in patients with neurologic events. Neurologic events post-PCI are associated with markedly worse in-hospital outcomes. The incidence of CVA and TIA post-PCI, however, remained stable over the last 12 years despite an increase in risk factors for CVA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes in pregnant women with Ebstein anomaly at the time of delivery in the USA: 2003-2012.

PubMed

Lima, Fabio V; Koutrolou-Sotiropoulou, Paraskevi; Yen, Tzyy Yun M; Stergiopoulos, Kathleen

2016-01-01

Ebstein anomaly is an uncommon congenital cardiac lesion that may be associated with cyanosis, arrhythmias and right heart dysfunction. Investigation into patient characteristics and outcomes in pregnant women with Ebstein anomaly has been limited. To characterize patient characteristics and clinical events for pregnant women with Ebstein anomaly during hospitalization for delivery in the USA; also, to determine the effect of Ebstein anomaly on maternal clinical outcomes and individual predictors of poor outcome at time of delivery. We screened the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's National Inpatient Sample for hospital admissions of pregnant women for delivery (vaginal or caesarean section) in the USA from 2003-2012, and identified a cohort of 7,850,381. Clinical characteristics and maternal outcomes were identified in those with and without Ebstein anomaly. The primary outcome of interest was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), a composite of in-hospital death, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular events, embolic events, cardiac complications of labour and delivery heart failure or arrhythmia. Our study population consisted of 82 hospitalizations of pregnant women with Ebstein anomaly and 7,850,299 without. The Ebstein cohort more frequently had ostium secundum-type atrial septal defect and/or patent foramen ovale and anomalous atrioventricular excitation (P<0.001 for both). The MACE rate was significantly higher among Ebstein patients (P<0.001). Preterm delivery, postpartum haemorrhage and caesarean delivery occurred more frequently among the Ebstein cohort (19.5% vs 7.2%, 8.5% vs 2.8% and 47.6% vs 31.1%, respectively; P≤0.001). In a multivariable analysis, anomalous atrioventricular excitation (odds ratio [OR] 21.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-457.91) and preterm delivery (OR 11.71, 95% CI 1.39-98.89) were associated with MACE among those with Ebstein anomaly. Pregnant women with Ebstein anomaly are at higher risk of MACE during pregnancy and delivery. Preterm delivery occurred more frequently in women with Ebstein anomaly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Utility of Sleep Stage Transitions in Assessing Sleep Continuity

PubMed Central

Laffan, Alison; Caffo, Brian; Swihart, Bruce J.; Punjabi, Naresh M.

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: Sleep continuity is commonly assessed with polysomnographic measures such as sleep efficiency, sleep stage percentages, and the arousal index. The aim of this study was to examine whether the transition rate between different sleep stages could be used as an index of sleep continuity to predict self-reported sleep quality independent of other commonly used metrics. Design and Setting: Analysis of the Sleep Heart Health Study polysomnographic data. Participants: A community cohort. Measurements and Results: Sleep recordings on 5,684 participants were deemed to be of sufficient quality to allow visual scoring of NREM and REM sleep. For each participant, we tabulated the frequency of transitions between wake, NREM sleep, and REM sleep. An overall transition rate was determined as the number of all transitions per hour sleep. Stage-specific transition rates between wake, NREM sleep, and REM sleep were also determined. A 5-point Likert scale was used to assess the subjective experience of restless and light sleep the morning after the sleep study. Multivariable regression models showed that a high overall sleep stage transition rate was associated with restless and light sleep independent of several covariates including total sleep time, percentages of sleep stages, wake time after sleep onset, and the arousal index. Compared to the lowest quartile of the overall transition rate (< 7.76 events/h), the odds ratios for restless sleep were 1.27, 1.42, and 1.38, for the second (7.77–10.10 events/h), third (10.11–13.34 events/h), and fourth (≥ 13.35 events/h) quartiles, respectively. Analysis of stage-specific transition rates showed that transitions between wake and NREM sleep were also independently associated with restless and light sleep. Conclusions: Assessing overall and stage-specific transition rates provides a complementary approach for assessing sleep continuity. Incorporating such measures, along with conventional metrics, could yield useful insights into the significance of sleep continuity for clinical outcomes. Citation: Laffan A; Caffo B; Swihart BJ; Punjabi NM. Utility of sleep stage transitions in assessing sleep continuity. SLEEP 2010;33(12):1681-1686. PMID:21120130

Economic impact of enoxaparin after acute ischemic stroke based on PREVAIL.

PubMed

Pineo, Graham; Lin, Jay; Stern, Lee; Subrahmanian, Tarun; Annemans, Lieven

2011-04-01

The efficacy and safety of low-molecular-weight heparins (LMWHs) versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) has been demonstrated for the prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after acute ischemic stroke. Few data exist regarding the economic impact of LMWHs versus UFH in this population. A decision-analytic model was constructed using clinical information from the Prevention of VTE after Acute Ischemic stroke with LMWH Enoxaparin (PREVAIL) study, and drug costs and mean Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services event costs. When considering the total cost of events and drugs, enoxaparin was associated with cost-savings of $895 per patient compared with UFH ($2018 vs $2913). Findings were retained within the univariate and multivariate analyses. From a payer perspective, enoxaparin was cost-effective compared with UFH in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The difference was driven by the lower clinical event rates with enoxaparin. Use of enoxaparin may help to reduce the clinical and economic burden of VTE.

iVAR: a program for imputing missing data in multivariate time series using vector autoregressive models.

PubMed

Liu, Siwei; Molenaar, Peter C M

2014-12-01

This article introduces iVAR, an R program for imputing missing data in multivariate time series on the basis of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We conducted a simulation study to compare iVAR with three methods for handling missing data: listwise deletion, imputation with sample means and variances, and multiple imputation ignoring time dependency. The results showed that iVAR produces better estimates for the cross-lagged coefficients than do the other three methods. We demonstrate the use of iVAR with an empirical example of time series electrodermal activity data and discuss the advantages and limitations of the program.