Estimating Finite Rate of Population Increase for Sharks Based on Vital Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Kwang-Ming; Chin, Chien-Pang; Chen, Chun-Hui; Chang, Jui-Han

2015-01-01

The vital parameter data for 62 stocks, covering 38 species, collected from the literature, including parameters of age, growth, and reproduction, were log-transformed and analyzed using multivariate analyses. Three groups were identified and empirical equations were developed for each to describe the relationships between the predicted finite rates of population increase (λ’) and the vital parameters, maximum age (Tmax), age at maturity (Tm), annual fecundity (f/Rc)), size at birth (Lb), size at maturity (Lm), and asymptotic length (L∞). Group (1) included species with slow growth rates (0.034 yr-1 < k < 0.103 yr-1) and extended longevity (26 yr < Tmax < 81 yr), e.g., shortfin mako Isurus oxyrinchus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus, etc.; Group (2) included species with fast growth rates (0.103 yr-1 < k < 0.358 yr-1) and short longevity (9 yr < Tmax < 26 yr), e.g., starspotted smoothhound Mustelus manazo, gray smoothhound M. californicus, etc.; Group (3) included late maturing species (Lm/L∞ ≧ 0.75) with moderate longevity (Tmax < 29 yr), e.g., pelagic thresher Alopias pelagicus, sevengill shark Notorynchus cepedianus. The empirical equation for all data pooled was also developed. The λ’ values estimated by these empirical equations showed good agreement with those calculated using conventional demographic analysis. The predictability was further validated by an independent data set of three species. The empirical equations developed in this study not only reduce the uncertainties in estimation but also account for the difference in life history among groups. This method therefore provides an efficient and effective approach to the implementation of precautionary shark management measures. PMID:26576058

Additive genetic variation and evolvability of a multivariate trait can be increased by epistatic gene action.

PubMed

Griswold, Cortland K

2015-12-21

Epistatic gene action occurs when mutations or alleles interact to produce a phenotype. Theoretically and empirically it is of interest to know whether gene interactions can facilitate the evolution of diversity. In this paper, we explore how epistatic gene action affects the additive genetic component or heritable component of multivariate trait variation, as well as how epistatic gene action affects the evolvability of multivariate traits. The analysis involves a sexually reproducing and recombining population. Our results indicate that under stabilizing selection conditions a population with a mixed additive and epistatic genetic architecture can have greater multivariate additive genetic variation and evolvability than a population with a purely additive genetic architecture. That greater multivariate additive genetic variation can occur with epistasis is in contrast to previous theory that indicated univariate additive genetic variation is decreased with epistasis under stabilizing selection conditions. In a multivariate setting, epistasis leads to less relative covariance among individuals in their genotypic, as well as their breeding values, which facilitates the maintenance of additive genetic variation and increases a population׳s evolvability. Our analysis involves linking the combinatorial nature of epistatic genetic effects to the ancestral graph structure of a population to provide insight into the consequences of epistasis on multivariate trait variation and evolution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

PubMed

Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-04-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

Joint genome-wide prediction in several populations accounting for randomness of genotypes: A hierarchical Bayes approach. II: Multivariate spike and slab priors for marker effects and derivation of approximate Bayes and fractional Bayes factors for the complete family of models.

PubMed

Martínez, Carlos Alberto; Khare, Kshitij; Banerjee, Arunava; Elzo, Mauricio A

2017-03-21

This study corresponds to the second part of a companion paper devoted to the development of Bayesian multiple regression models accounting for randomness of genotypes in across population genome-wide prediction. This family of models considers heterogeneous and correlated marker effects and allelic frequencies across populations, and has the ability of considering records from non-genotyped individuals and individuals with missing genotypes in any subset of loci without the need for previous imputation, taking into account uncertainty about imputed genotypes. This paper extends this family of models by considering multivariate spike and slab conditional priors for marker allele substitution effects and contains derivations of approximate Bayes factors and fractional Bayes factors to compare models from part I and those developed here with their null versions. These null versions correspond to simpler models ignoring heterogeneity of populations, but still accounting for randomness of genotypes. For each marker loci, the spike component of priors corresponded to point mass at 0 in R S , where S is the number of populations, and the slab component was a S-variate Gaussian distribution, independent conditional priors were assumed. For the Gaussian components, covariance matrices were assumed to be either the same for all markers or different for each marker. For null models, the priors were simply univariate versions of these finite mixture distributions. Approximate algebraic expressions for Bayes factors and fractional Bayes factors were found using the Laplace approximation. Using the simulated datasets described in part I, these models were implemented and compared with models derived in part I using measures of predictive performance based on squared Pearson correlations, Deviance Information Criterion, Bayes factors, and fractional Bayes factors. The extensions presented here enlarge our family of genome-wide prediction models making it more flexible in the sense that it now offers more modeling options. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating an Effect Size in One-Way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steyn, H. S., Jr.; Ellis, S. M.

2009-01-01

When two or more univariate population means are compared, the proportion of variation in the dependent variable accounted for by population group membership is eta-squared. This effect size can be generalized by using multivariate measures of association, based on the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) statistics, to establish whether…

A stochastic-field description of finite-size spiking neural networks

PubMed Central

Longtin, André

2017-01-01

Neural network dynamics are governed by the interaction of spiking neurons. Stochastic aspects of single-neuron dynamics propagate up to the network level and shape the dynamical and informational properties of the population. Mean-field models of population activity disregard the finite-size stochastic fluctuations of network dynamics and thus offer a deterministic description of the system. Here, we derive a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) describing the temporal evolution of the finite-size refractory density, which represents the proportion of neurons in a given refractory state at any given time. The population activity—the density of active neurons per unit time—is easily extracted from this refractory density. The SPDE includes finite-size effects through a two-dimensional Gaussian white noise that acts both in time and along the refractory dimension. For an infinite number of neurons the standard mean-field theory is recovered. A discretization of the SPDE along its characteristic curves allows direct simulations of the activity of large but finite spiking networks; this constitutes the main advantage of our approach. Linearizing the SPDE with respect to the deterministic asynchronous state allows the theoretical investigation of finite-size activity fluctuations. In particular, analytical expressions for the power spectrum and autocorrelation of activity fluctuations are obtained. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to incorporate multiple interacting populations and quasi-renewal single-neuron dynamics. PMID:28787447

Modelling and finite-time stability analysis of psoriasis pathogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oza, Harshal B.; Pandey, Rakesh; Roper, Daniel; Al-Nuaimi, Yusur; Spurgeon, Sarah K.; Goodfellow, Marc

2017-08-01

A new systems model of psoriasis is presented and analysed from the perspective of control theory. Cytokines are treated as actuators to the plant model that govern the cell population under the reasonable assumption that cytokine dynamics are faster than the cell population dynamics. The analysis of various equilibria is undertaken based on singular perturbation theory. Finite-time stability and stabilisation have been studied in various engineering applications where the principal paradigm uses non-Lipschitz functions of the states. A comprehensive study of the finite-time stability properties of the proposed psoriasis dynamics is carried out. It is demonstrated that the dynamics are finite-time convergent to certain equilibrium points rather than asymptotically or exponentially convergent. This feature of finite-time convergence motivates the development of a modified version of the Michaelis-Menten function, frequently used in biology. This framework is used to model cytokines as fast finite-time actuators.

Finite-time and finite-size scalings in the evaluation of large-deviation functions: Numerical approach in continuous time.

PubMed

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

2017-06-01

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to selection rules that favor the rare trajectories of interest. Such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time and finite population size, effects that can render their use delicate. In this paper, we present a numerical approach which uses the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of rare trajectories. The method we propose allows one to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators, which-as shown on the contact process-provides a significant improvement of the large deviation function estimators compared to the standard one.

mvMapper: statistical and geographical data exploration and visualization of multivariate analysis of population structure

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Characterizing population genetic structure across geographic space is a fundamental challenge in population genetics. Multivariate statistical analyses are powerful tools for summarizing genetic variability, but geographic information and accompanying metadata is not always easily integrated into t...

Influence of the finite linewidth of the laser radiation spectrum on the shape of the coherent population trapping resonance line in an optically dense medium with a buffer gas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barantsev, K. A., E-mail: kostmann@yandex.ru; Popov, E. N.; Litvinov, A. N., E-mail: andrey.litvinov@mail.ru

2015-11-15

The theory of coherent population trapping resonance is developed for the finite linewidth of the laser radiation spectrum in an optically dense medium of Λ atoms in a cell with a buffer gas. Equations are derived for the atomic density matrix and laser emission spectrum transfer in a cell with working and buffer gases at a finite temperature. The dependence of the quality factor of coherent population trapping resonance on the linewidth of the laser radiation spectrum is studied by measuring transmitted radiation and fluorescence signals.

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size

PubMed Central

Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50–2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations. PMID:28422957

Quasispecies theory for finite populations

PubMed Central

Park, Jeong-Man; Muñoz, Enrique; Deem, Michael W.

2015-01-01

We present stochastic, finite-population formulations of the Crow-Kimura and Eigen models of quasispecies theory, for fitness functions that depend in an arbitrary way on the number of mutations from the wild type. We include back mutations in our description. We show that the fluctuation of the population numbers about the average values are exceedingly large in these physical models of evolution. We further show that horizontal gene transfer reduces by orders of magnitude the fluctuations in the population numbers and reduces the accumulation of deleterious mutations in the finite population due to Muller’s ratchet. Indeed the population sizes needed to converge to the infinite population limit are often larger than those found in nature for smooth fitness functions in the absence of horizontal gene transfer. These analytical results are derived for the steady-state by means of a field-theoretic representation. Numerical results are presented that indicate horizontal gene transfer speeds up the dynamics of evolution as well. PMID:20365394

The evolution of recombination rates in finite populations during ecological speciation.

PubMed

Reeve, James; Ortiz-Barrientos, Daniel; Engelstädter, Jan

2016-10-26

Recombination can impede ecological speciation with gene flow by mixing locally adapted genotypes with maladapted migrant genotypes from a divergent population. In such a scenario, suppression of recombination can be selectively favoured. However, in finite populations evolving under the influence of random genetic drift, recombination can also facilitate adaptation by reducing Hill-Robertson interference between loci under selection. In this case, increased recombination rates can be favoured. Although these two major effects on recombination have been studied individually, their joint effect on ecological speciation with gene flow remains unexplored. Using a mathematical model, we investigated the evolution of recombination rates in two finite populations that exchange migrants while adapting to contrasting environments. Our results indicate a two-step dynamic where increased recombination is first favoured (in response to the Hill-Robertson effect), and then disfavoured, as the cost of recombining locally with maladapted migrant genotypes increases over time (the maladaptive gene flow effect). In larger populations, a stronger initial benefit for recombination was observed, whereas high migration rates intensify the long-term cost of recombination. These dynamics may have important implications for our understanding of the conditions that facilitate incipient speciation with gene flow and the evolution of recombination in finite populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

Automated finite element modeling of the lumbar spine: Using a statistical shape model to generate a virtual population of models.

PubMed

Campbell, J Q; Petrella, A J

2016-09-06

Population-based modeling of the lumbar spine has the potential to be a powerful clinical tool. However, developing a fully parameterized model of the lumbar spine with accurate geometry has remained a challenge. The current study used automated methods for landmark identification to create a statistical shape model of the lumbar spine. The shape model was evaluated using compactness, generalization ability, and specificity. The primary shape modes were analyzed visually, quantitatively, and biomechanically. The biomechanical analysis was performed by using the statistical shape model with an automated method for finite element model generation to create a fully parameterized finite element model of the lumbar spine. Functional finite element models of the mean shape and the extreme shapes (±3 standard deviations) of all 17 shape modes were created demonstrating the robust nature of the methods. This study represents an advancement in finite element modeling of the lumbar spine and will allow population-based modeling in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deleterious mutations and selection for sex in finite diploid populations.

PubMed

Roze, Denis; Michod, Richard E

2010-04-01

In diploid populations, indirect benefits of sex may stem from segregation and recombination. Although it has been recognized that finite population size is an important component of selection for recombination, its effects on selection for segregation have been somewhat less studied. In this article, we develop analytical two- and three-locus models to study the effect of recurrent deleterious mutations on a modifier gene increasing sex, in a finite diploid population. The model also incorporates effects of mitotic recombination, causing loss of heterozygosity (LOH). Predictions are tested using multilocus simulations representing deleterious mutations occurring at a large number of loci. The model and simulations show that excess of heterozygosity generated by finite population size is an important component of selection for sex, favoring segregation when deleterious alleles are nearly additive to dominant. Furthermore, sex tends to break correlations in homozygosity among selected loci, which disfavors sex when deleterious alleles are either recessive or dominant. As a result, we find that it is difficult to maintain costly sex when deleterious alleles are recessive. LOH tends to favor sex when deleterious mutations are recessive, but the effect is relatively weak for rates of LOH corresponding to current estimates (of the order 10(-4)-10(-5)).

On Arithmetic-Geometric-Mean Polynomials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Martin; MacHale, Des

2017-01-01

We study here an aspect of an infinite set "P" of multivariate polynomials, the elements of which are associated with the arithmetic-geometric-mean inequality. In particular, we show in this article that there exist infinite subsets of probability "P" for which every element may be expressed as a finite sum of squares of real…

Finite-Time and -Size Scalings in the Evaluation of Large Deviation Functions. Numerical Analysis in Continuous Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provide a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to a selection rule that favors the rare trajectories of interest. However, such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time- and finite population size- effects that can render their use delicate. Using the continuous-time cloning algorithm, we analyze the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of the rare trajectories. We use these scalings in order to propose a numerical approach which allows to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators.

The Effects of Finite Sampling on State Assessment Sample Requirements. NAEP Validity Studies. Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chromy, James R.

This study addressed statistical techniques that might ameliorate some of the sampling problems currently facing states with small populations participating in State National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) assessments. The study explored how the application of finite population correction factors to the between-school component of…

Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

2006-07-01

Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

Calibrated Multivariate Regression with Application to Neural Semantic Basis Discovery.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Wang, Lie; Zhao, Tuo

2015-08-01

We propose a calibrated multivariate regression method named CMR for fitting high dimensional multivariate regression models. Compared with existing methods, CMR calibrates regularization for each regression task with respect to its noise level so that it simultaneously attains improved finite-sample performance and tuning insensitiveness. Theoretically, we provide sufficient conditions under which CMR achieves the optimal rate of convergence in parameter estimation. Computationally, we propose an efficient smoothed proximal gradient algorithm with a worst-case numerical rate of convergence O (1/ ϵ ), where ϵ is a pre-specified accuracy of the objective function value. We conduct thorough numerical simulations to illustrate that CMR consistently outperforms other high dimensional multivariate regression methods. We also apply CMR to solve a brain activity prediction problem and find that it is as competitive as a handcrafted model created by human experts. The R package camel implementing the proposed method is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/camel/.

Local polynomial estimation of heteroscedasticity in a multivariate linear regression model and its applications in economics.

PubMed

Su, Liyun; Zhao, Yanyong; Yan, Tianshun; Li, Fenglan

2012-01-01

Multivariate local polynomial fitting is applied to the multivariate linear heteroscedastic regression model. Firstly, the local polynomial fitting is applied to estimate heteroscedastic function, then the coefficients of regression model are obtained by using generalized least squares method. One noteworthy feature of our approach is that we avoid the testing for heteroscedasticity by improving the traditional two-stage method. Due to non-parametric technique of local polynomial estimation, it is unnecessary to know the form of heteroscedastic function. Therefore, we can improve the estimation precision, when the heteroscedastic function is unknown. Furthermore, we verify that the regression coefficients is asymptotic normal based on numerical simulations and normal Q-Q plots of residuals. Finally, the simulation results and the local polynomial estimation of real data indicate that our approach is surely effective in finite-sample situations.

The non-linear response of a muscle in transverse compression: assessment of geometry influence using a finite element model.

PubMed

Gras, Laure-Lise; Mitton, David; Crevier-Denoix, Nathalie; Laporte, Sébastien

2012-01-01

Most recent finite element models that represent muscles are generic or subject-specific models that use complex, constitutive laws. Identification of the parameters of such complex, constitutive laws could be an important limit for subject-specific approaches. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of modelling muscle behaviour in compression with a parametric model and a simple, constitutive law. A quasi-static compression test was performed on the muscles of dogs. A parametric finite element model was designed using a linear, elastic, constitutive law. A multi-variate analysis was performed to assess the effects of geometry on muscle response. An inverse method was used to define Young's modulus. The non-linear response of the muscles was obtained using a subject-specific geometry and a linear elastic law. Thus, a simple muscle model can be used to have a bio-faithful, biomechanical response.

Multi-Agent Inference in Social Networks: A Finite Population Learning Approach.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Tong, Xin; Zeng, Yao

When people in a society want to make inference about some parameter, each person may want to use data collected by other people. Information (data) exchange in social networks is usually costly, so to make reliable statistical decisions, people need to trade off the benefits and costs of information acquisition. Conflicts of interests and coordination problems will arise in the process. Classical statistics does not consider people's incentives and interactions in the data collection process. To address this imperfection, this work explores multi-agent Bayesian inference problems with a game theoretic social network model. Motivated by our interest in aggregate inference at the societal level, we propose a new concept, finite population learning , to address whether with high probability, a large fraction of people in a given finite population network can make "good" inference. Serving as a foundation, this concept enables us to study the long run trend of aggregate inference quality as population grows.

Applying the multivariate time-rescaling theorem to neural population models

PubMed Central

Gerhard, Felipe; Haslinger, Robert; Pipa, Gordon

2011-01-01

Statistical models of neural activity are integral to modern neuroscience. Recently, interest has grown in modeling the spiking activity of populations of simultaneously recorded neurons to study the effects of correlations and functional connectivity on neural information processing. However any statistical model must be validated by an appropriate goodness-of-fit test. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests based upon the time-rescaling theorem have proven to be useful for evaluating point-process-based statistical models of single-neuron spike trains. Here we discuss the extension of the time-rescaling theorem to the multivariate (neural population) case. We show that even in the presence of strong correlations between spike trains, models which neglect couplings between neurons can be erroneously passed by the univariate time-rescaling test. We present the multivariate version of the time-rescaling theorem, and provide a practical step-by-step procedure for applying it towards testing the sufficiency of neural population models. Using several simple analytically tractable models and also more complex simulated and real data sets, we demonstrate that important features of the population activity can only be detected using the multivariate extension of the test. PMID:21395436

Generating Virtual Patients by Multivariate and Discrete Re-Sampling Techniques.

PubMed

Teutonico, D; Musuamba, F; Maas, H J; Facius, A; Yang, S; Danhof, M; Della Pasqua, O

2015-10-01

Clinical Trial Simulations (CTS) are a valuable tool for decision-making during drug development. However, to obtain realistic simulation scenarios, the patients included in the CTS must be representative of the target population. This is particularly important when covariate effects exist that may affect the outcome of a trial. The objective of our investigation was to evaluate and compare CTS results using re-sampling from a population pool and multivariate distributions to simulate patient covariates. COPD was selected as paradigm disease for the purposes of our analysis, FEV1 was used as response measure and the effects of a hypothetical intervention were evaluated in different populations in order to assess the predictive performance of the two methods. Our results show that the multivariate distribution method produces realistic covariate correlations, comparable to the real population. Moreover, it allows simulation of patient characteristics beyond the limits of inclusion and exclusion criteria in historical protocols. Both methods, discrete resampling and multivariate distribution generate realistic pools of virtual patients. However the use of a multivariate distribution enable more flexible simulation scenarios since it is not necessarily bound to the existing covariate combinations in the available clinical data sets.

Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas

PubMed Central

Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

2017-01-01

It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite ‘populations of ideas’. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games. PMID:28098244

Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

2017-01-01

It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite ‘populations of ideas’. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games.

Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

DOEpatents

Stampfer, Martha R.; Garbe, James C.

2016-06-28

Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

DOEpatents

Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

2015-02-24

Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

Time-frequency analysis of neuronal populations with instantaneous resolution based on noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition.

PubMed

Alegre-Cortés, J; Soto-Sánchez, C; Pizá, Á G; Albarracín, A L; Farfán, F D; Felice, C J; Fernández, E

2016-07-15

Linear analysis has classically provided powerful tools for understanding the behavior of neural populations, but the neuron responses to real-world stimulation are nonlinear under some conditions, and many neuronal components demonstrate strong nonlinear behavior. In spite of this, temporal and frequency dynamics of neural populations to sensory stimulation have been usually analyzed with linear approaches. In this paper, we propose the use of Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (NA-MEMD), a data-driven template-free algorithm, plus the Hilbert transform as a suitable tool for analyzing population oscillatory dynamics in a multi-dimensional space with instantaneous frequency (IF) resolution. The proposed approach was able to extract oscillatory information of neurophysiological data of deep vibrissal nerve and visual cortex multiunit recordings that were not evidenced using linear approaches with fixed bases such as the Fourier analysis. Texture discrimination analysis performance was increased when Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode plus Hilbert transform was implemented, compared to linear techniques. Cortical oscillatory population activity was analyzed with precise time-frequency resolution. Similarly, NA-MEMD provided increased time-frequency resolution of cortical oscillatory population activity. Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition plus Hilbert transform is an improved method to analyze neuronal population oscillatory dynamics overcoming linear and stationary assumptions of classical methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-Agent Inference in Social Networks: A Finite Population Learning Approach

PubMed Central

Tong, Xin; Zeng, Yao

2016-01-01

When people in a society want to make inference about some parameter, each person may want to use data collected by other people. Information (data) exchange in social networks is usually costly, so to make reliable statistical decisions, people need to trade off the benefits and costs of information acquisition. Conflicts of interests and coordination problems will arise in the process. Classical statistics does not consider people’s incentives and interactions in the data collection process. To address this imperfection, this work explores multi-agent Bayesian inference problems with a game theoretic social network model. Motivated by our interest in aggregate inference at the societal level, we propose a new concept, finite population learning, to address whether with high probability, a large fraction of people in a given finite population network can make “good” inference. Serving as a foundation, this concept enables us to study the long run trend of aggregate inference quality as population grows. PMID:27076691

Olber's Paradox Revisited in a Static and Finite Universe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Couture, Gilles

2012-01-01

Building a Universe populated by stars identical to our Sun and taking into consideration the wave-particle duality of light, the biological limits of the human eye, the finite size of stars and the finiteness of our Universe, we conclude that the sky could very well be dark at night. Besides the human eye, the dominant parameter is the finite…

Ancestral Relationships Using Metafounders: Finite Ancestral Populations and Across Population Relationships

PubMed Central

Legarra, Andres; Christensen, Ole F.; Vitezica, Zulma G.; Aguilar, Ignacio; Misztal, Ignacy

2015-01-01

Recent use of genomic (marker-based) relationships shows that relationships exist within and across base population (breeds or lines). However, current treatment of pedigree relationships is unable to consider relationships within or across base populations, although such relationships must exist due to finite size of the ancestral population and connections between populations. This complicates the conciliation of both approaches and, in particular, combining pedigree with genomic relationships. We present a coherent theoretical framework to consider base population in pedigree relationships. We suggest a conceptual framework that considers each ancestral population as a finite-sized pool of gametes. This generates across-individual relationships and contrasts with the classical view which each population is considered as an infinite, unrelated pool. Several ancestral populations may be connected and therefore related. Each ancestral population can be represented as a “metafounder,” a pseudo-individual included as founder of the pedigree and similar to an “unknown parent group.” Metafounders have self- and across relationships according to a set of parameters, which measure ancestral relationships, i.e., homozygozities within populations and relationships across populations. These parameters can be estimated from existing pedigree and marker genotypes using maximum likelihood or a method based on summary statistics, for arbitrarily complex pedigrees. Equivalences of genetic variance and variance components between the classical and this new parameterization are shown. Segregation variance on crosses of populations is modeled. Efficient algorithms for computation of relationship matrices, their inverses, and inbreeding coefficients are presented. Use of metafounders leads to compatibility of genomic and pedigree relationship matrices and to simple computing algorithms. Examples and code are given. PMID:25873631

Primary decomposition of zero-dimensional ideals over finite fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shuhong; Wan, Daqing; Wang, Mingsheng

2009-03-01

A new algorithm is presented for computing primary decomposition of zero-dimensional ideals over finite fields. Like Berlekamp's algorithm for univariate polynomials, the new method is based on the invariant subspace of the Frobenius map acting on the quotient algebra. The dimension of the invariant subspace equals the number of primary components, and a basis of the invariant subspace yields a complete decomposition. Unlike previous approaches for decomposing multivariate polynomial systems, the new method does not need primality testing nor any generic projection, instead it reduces the general decomposition problem directly to root finding of univariate polynomials over the ground field. Also, it is shown how Groebner basis structure can be used to get partial primary decomposition without any root finding.

Finite-size effects on bacterial population expansion under controlled flow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesser, Francesca; Zeegers, Jos C. H.; Clercx, Herman J. H.; Brunsveld, Luc; Toschi, Federico

2017-03-01

The expansion of biological species in natural environments is usually described as the combined effect of individual spatial dispersal and growth. In the case of aquatic ecosystems flow transport can also be extremely relevant as an extra, advection induced, dispersal factor. We designed and assembled a dedicated microfluidic device to control and quantify the expansion of populations of E. coli bacteria under both co-flowing and counter-flowing conditions, measuring the front speed at varying intensity of the imposed flow. At variance with respect to the case of classic advective-reactive-diffusive chemical fronts, we measure that almost irrespective of the counter-flow velocity, the front speed remains finite at a constant positive value. A simple model incorporating growth, dispersion and drift on finite-size hard beads allows to explain this finding as due to a finite volume effect of the bacteria. This indicates that models based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation (FKPP) that ignore the finite size of organisms may be inaccurate to describe the physics of spatial growth dynamics of bacteria.

Multivariate selection and intersexual genetic constraints in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Poissant, J; Morrissey, M B; Gosler, A G; Slate, J; Sheldon, B C

2016-10-01

When selection differs between the sexes for traits that are genetically correlated between the sexes, there is potential for the effect of selection in one sex to be altered by indirect selection in the other sex, a situation commonly referred to as intralocus sexual conflict (ISC). While potentially common, ISC has rarely been studied in wild populations. Here, we studied ISC over a set of morphological traits (wing length, tarsus length, bill depth and bill length) in a wild population of great tits (Parus major) from Wytham Woods, UK. Specifically, we quantified the microevolutionary impacts of ISC by combining intra- and intersex additive genetic (co)variances and sex-specific selection estimates in a multivariate framework. Large genetic correlations between homologous male and female traits combined with evidence for sex-specific multivariate survival selection suggested that ISC could play an appreciable role in the evolution of this population. Together, multivariate sex-specific selection and additive genetic (co)variance for the traits considered accounted for additive genetic variance in fitness that was uncorrelated between the sexes (cross-sex genetic correlation = -0.003, 95% CI = -0.83, 0.83). Gender load, defined as the reduction in a population's rate of adaptation due to sex-specific effects, was estimated at 50% (95% CI = 13%, 86%). This study provides novel insights into the evolution of sexual dimorphism in wild populations and illustrates how quantitative genetics and selection analyses can be combined in a multivariate framework to quantify the microevolutionary impacts of ISC. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Optimization of Interior Permanent Magnet Motor by Quality Engineering and Multivariate Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Yukihiro; Kawase, Yoshihiro

This paper has described the method of optimization based on the finite element method. The quality engineering and the multivariable analysis are used as the optimization technique. This optimizing method consists of two steps. At Step.1, the influence of parameters for output is obtained quantitatively, at Step.2, the number of calculation by the FEM can be cut down. That is, the optimal combination of the design parameters, which satisfies the required characteristic, can be searched for efficiently. In addition, this method is applied to a design of IPM motor to reduce the torque ripple. The final shape can maintain average torque and cut down the torque ripple 65%. Furthermore, the amount of permanent magnets can be reduced.

Ancestral Relationships Using Metafounders: Finite Ancestral Populations and Across Population Relationships.

PubMed

Legarra, Andres; Christensen, Ole F; Vitezica, Zulma G; Aguilar, Ignacio; Misztal, Ignacy

2015-06-01

Recent use of genomic (marker-based) relationships shows that relationships exist within and across base population (breeds or lines). However, current treatment of pedigree relationships is unable to consider relationships within or across base populations, although such relationships must exist due to finite size of the ancestral population and connections between populations. This complicates the conciliation of both approaches and, in particular, combining pedigree with genomic relationships. We present a coherent theoretical framework to consider base population in pedigree relationships. We suggest a conceptual framework that considers each ancestral population as a finite-sized pool of gametes. This generates across-individual relationships and contrasts with the classical view which each population is considered as an infinite, unrelated pool. Several ancestral populations may be connected and therefore related. Each ancestral population can be represented as a "metafounder," a pseudo-individual included as founder of the pedigree and similar to an "unknown parent group." Metafounders have self- and across relationships according to a set of parameters, which measure ancestral relationships, i.e., homozygozities within populations and relationships across populations. These parameters can be estimated from existing pedigree and marker genotypes using maximum likelihood or a method based on summary statistics, for arbitrarily complex pedigrees. Equivalences of genetic variance and variance components between the classical and this new parameterization are shown. Segregation variance on crosses of populations is modeled. Efficient algorithms for computation of relationship matrices, their inverses, and inbreeding coefficients are presented. Use of metafounders leads to compatibility of genomic and pedigree relationship matrices and to simple computing algorithms. Examples and code are given. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Public goods with punishment and abstaining in finite and infinite populations

PubMed Central

Hauert, Christoph; Traulsen, Arne; Brandt, Hannelore; Nowak, Martin A.; Sigmund, Karl

2010-01-01

The evolution and maintenance of cooperation in human and animal societies challenges various disciplines ranging from evolutionary biology, to anthropology, social sciences and economics. In social interactions, cooperators increase the welfare of the group at some cost to themselves whereas defectors attempt to free-ride and neither provide benefits nor incur costs. The problem of cooperation becomes even more pronounced when increasing the number of interacting individuals. Punishment and voluntary participation have been identified as possible factors to support cooperation and prevent cheating. Typically, punishment behavior is unable to gain a foothold in a population, while volunteering alone can efficiently prevent deadlocks in states of mutual defection but is unable to stabilize cooperation. The combined effects of the two mechanisms have surprisingly different consequences in finite and infinite populations. Here we provide a detailed comparison of the two scenarios and demonstrate that driven by the inherent stochasticity of finite populations, the possibility to abstain from social interactions plays a pivotal role, which paves the way for the establishment of cooperation and punishment. PMID:20740068

Bacterial finite-size effects for population expansion under flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toschi, Federico; Tesser, Francesca; Zeegers, Jos C. H.; Clercx, Herman J. H.; Brunsveld, Luc

2016-11-01

For organisms living in a liquid ecosystem, flow and flow gradients have a dual role as they transport nutrient while, at the same time, dispersing the individuals. In absence of flow and under homogeneous conditions, the growth of a population towards an empty region is usually described by a reaction-diffusion equation. The effect of fluid flow is not yet well understood and the interplay between transport of individuals and growth opens a wide scenario of possible behaviors. In this work, we study experimentally the dynamics of non-motile E. coli bacteria colonies spreading inside rectangular channels, in PDMS microfluidic devices. By use of a fluorescent microscope we analyze the dynamics of the population density subjected to different co- and counter-flow conditions and shear rates. A simple model incorporating growth, dispersion and drift of finite size beads is able to explain the experimental findings. This indicates that models based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation (FKPP) may have to be supplemented with bacterial finite-size effects in order to be able to accurately reproduce experimental results for population spatial growth.

Marginally specified priors for non-parametric Bayesian estimation

PubMed Central

Kessler, David C.; Hoff, Peter D.; Dunson, David B.

2014-01-01

Summary Prior specification for non-parametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. A statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions about all aspects of such a parameter but will have real information about functionals of the parameter, such as the population mean or variance. The paper proposes a new framework for non-parametric Bayes inference in which the prior distribution for a possibly infinite dimensional parameter is decomposed into two parts: an informative prior on a finite set of functionals, and a non-parametric conditional prior for the parameter given the functionals. Such priors can be easily constructed from standard non-parametric prior distributions in common use and inherit the large support of the standard priors on which they are based. Additionally, posterior approximations under these informative priors can generally be made via minor adjustments to existing Markov chain approximation algorithms for standard non-parametric prior distributions. We illustrate the use of such priors in the context of multivariate density estimation using Dirichlet process mixture models, and in the modelling of high dimensional sparse contingency tables. PMID:25663813

Diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence inferences based on joint and sequential testing with finite population sampling.

PubMed

Su, Chun-Lung; Gardner, Ian A; Johnson, Wesley O

2004-07-30

The two-test two-population model, originally formulated by Hui and Walter, for estimation of test accuracy and prevalence estimation assumes conditionally independent tests, constant accuracy across populations and binomial sampling. The binomial assumption is incorrect if all individuals in a population e.g. child-care centre, village in Africa, or a cattle herd are sampled or if the sample size is large relative to population size. In this paper, we develop statistical methods for evaluating diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence estimation based on finite sample data in the absence of a gold standard. Moreover, two tests are often applied simultaneously for the purpose of obtaining a 'joint' testing strategy that has either higher overall sensitivity or specificity than either of the two tests considered singly. Sequential versions of such strategies are often applied in order to reduce the cost of testing. We thus discuss joint (simultaneous and sequential) testing strategies and inference for them. Using the developed methods, we analyse two real and one simulated data sets, and we compare 'hypergeometric' and 'binomial-based' inferences. Our findings indicate that the posterior standard deviations for prevalence (but not sensitivity and specificity) based on finite population sampling tend to be smaller than their counterparts for infinite population sampling. Finally, we make recommendations about how small the sample size should be relative to the population size to warrant use of the binomial model for prevalence estimation. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite-size effects and switching times for Moran process with mutation.

PubMed

DeVille, Lee; Galiardi, Meghan

2017-04-01

We consider the Moran process with two populations competing under an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in the presence of mutation, and concentrate on the case where there are multiple evolutionarily stable strategies. We perform a complete bifurcation analysis of the deterministic system which arises in the infinite population size. We also study the Master equation and obtain asymptotics for the invariant distribution and metastable switching times for the stochastic process in the case of large but finite population. We also show that the stochastic system has asymmetries in the form of a skew for parameter values where the deterministic limit is symmetric.

Multivariate meta-analysis of individual participant data helped externally validate the performance and implementation of a prediction model.

PubMed

Snell, Kym I E; Hua, Harry; Debray, Thomas P A; Ensor, Joie; Look, Maxime P; Moons, Karel G M; Riley, Richard D

2016-01-01

Our aim was to improve meta-analysis methods for summarizing a prediction model's performance when individual participant data are available from multiple studies for external validation. We suggest multivariate meta-analysis for jointly synthesizing calibration and discrimination performance, while accounting for their correlation. The approach estimates a prediction model's average performance, the heterogeneity in performance across populations, and the probability of "good" performance in new populations. This allows different implementation strategies (e.g., recalibration) to be compared. Application is made to a diagnostic model for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and a prognostic model for breast cancer mortality. In both examples, multivariate meta-analysis reveals that calibration performance is excellent on average but highly heterogeneous across populations unless the model's intercept (baseline hazard) is recalibrated. For the cancer model, the probability of "good" performance (defined by C statistic ≥0.7 and calibration slope between 0.9 and 1.1) in a new population was 0.67 with recalibration but 0.22 without recalibration. For the DVT model, even with recalibration, there was only a 0.03 probability of "good" performance. Multivariate meta-analysis can be used to externally validate a prediction model's calibration and discrimination performance across multiple populations and to evaluate different implementation strategies. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linkage Disequilibrium in a Finite Population That Is Partially Selfing

PubMed Central

Golding, G. B.; Strobeck, C.

1980-01-01

The linkage disequilibrium expected in a finite, partially selfing population is analyzed, assuming the infinite allele model. Formulas for the expected sum of squares of the linkage disequilibria and the squared standard linkage disequilibrium are derived from the equilibrium values of sixteen inbreeding coefficients required to describe the behavior of the system. These formulas are identical to those obtained with random mating if the effective population size Ne = (1-½S)N and the effective recombination value re = (1-S)r/(1-½S), where S is the proportion of selfing, are substituted for the population size and the recombination value. Therefore, the effect of partial selfing at equilibrium is to reduce the population size by a factor 1-½S and the recombination value by a factor (1-S)/(1-½S). PMID:17249017

Implications of long tails in the distribution of mutant effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waxman, D.; Feng, J.

2005-07-01

Long-tailed distributions possess an infinite variance, yet a finite sample that is drawn from such a distribution has a finite variance. In this work we consider a model of a population subject to mutation, selection and drift. We investigate the implications of a long-tailed distribution of mutant allelic effects on the distribution of genotypic effects in a model with a continuum of allelic effects. While the analysis is confined to asexual populations, it does also have implications for sexual populations. We obtain analytical results for a selectively neutral population as well as one subject to selection. We supplement these analytical results with numerical simulations, to take into account genetic drift. We find that a long-tailed distribution of mutant effects may affect both the equilibrium and the evolutionary adaptive behaviour of a population.

Universal portfolios generated by weakly stationary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

2014-12-01

Recently, a universal portfolio generated by a set of independent Brownian motions where a finite number of past stock prices are weighted by the moments of the multivariate normal distribution is introduced and studied. The multivariate normal moments as polynomials in time consequently lead to a constant rebalanced portfolio depending on the drift coefficients of the Brownian motions. For a weakly stationary process, a different type of universal portfolio is proposed where the weights on the stock prices depend only on the time differences of the stock prices. An empirical study is conducted on the returns achieved by the universal portfolios generated by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on selected stock-price data sets. Promising results are demonstrated for increasing the wealth of the investor by using the weakly-stationary-process-generated universal portfolios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zlotnikov, Michael

We develop a polynomial reduction procedure that transforms any gauge fixed CHY amplitude integrand for n scattering particles into a σ-moduli multivariate polynomial of what we call the standard form. We show that a standard form polynomial must have a specific ladder type monomial structure, which has finite size at any n, with highest multivariate degree given by (n – 3)(n – 4)/2. This set of monomials spans a complete basis for polynomials with rational coefficients in kinematic data on the support of scattering equations. Subsequently, at tree and one-loop level, we employ the global residue theorem to derive amore » prescription that evaluates any CHY amplitude by means of collecting simple residues at infinity only. Furthermore, the prescription is then applied explicitly to some tree and one-loop amplitude examples.« less

Is a multivariate consensus representation of genetic relationships among populations always meaningful?

PubMed Central

Moazami-Goudarzi, K; Laloë, D

2002-01-01

To determine the relationships among closely related populations or species, two methods are commonly used in the literature: phylogenetic reconstruction or multivariate analysis. The aim of this article is to assess the reliability of multivariate analysis. We describe a method that is based on principal component analysis and Mantel correlations, using a two-step process: The first step consists of a single-marker analysis and the second step tests if each marker reveals the same typology concerning population differentiation. We conclude that if single markers are not congruent, the compromise structure is not meaningful. Our model is not based on any particular mutation process and it can be applied to most of the commonly used genetic markers. This method is also useful to determine the contribution of each marker to the typology of populations. We test whether our method is efficient with two real data sets based on microsatellite markers. Our analysis suggests that for closely related populations, it is not always possible to accept the hypothesis that an increase in the number of markers will increase the reliability of the typology analysis. PMID:12242255

A multivariate analysis of genetic constraints to life history evolution in a wild population of red deer.

PubMed

Walling, Craig A; Morrissey, Michael B; Foerster, Katharina; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Pemberton, Josephine M; Kruuk, Loeske E B

2014-12-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that genetic constraints should be widespread, but empirical support for their existence is surprisingly rare. Commonly applied univariate and bivariate approaches to detecting genetic constraints can underestimate their prevalence, with important aspects potentially tractable only within a multivariate framework. However, multivariate genetic analyses of data from natural populations are challenging because of modest sample sizes, incomplete pedigrees, and missing data. Here we present results from a study of a comprehensive set of life history traits (juvenile survival, age at first breeding, annual fecundity, and longevity) for both males and females in a wild, pedigreed, population of red deer (Cervus elaphus). We use factor analytic modeling of the genetic variance-covariance matrix ( G: ) to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and take a multivariate approach to estimating genetic constraints. We consider a range of metrics designed to assess the effect of G: on the deflection of a predicted response to selection away from the direction of fastest adaptation and on the evolvability of the traits. We found limited support for genetic constraint through genetic covariances between traits, both within sex and between sexes. We discuss these results with respect to other recent findings and to the problems of estimating these parameters for natural populations. Copyright © 2014 Walling et al.

A Multivariate Analysis of Genetic Constraints to Life History Evolution in a Wild Population of Red Deer

PubMed Central

Walling, Craig A.; Morrissey, Michael B.; Foerster, Katharina; Clutton-Brock, Tim H.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Kruuk, Loeske E. B.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that genetic constraints should be widespread, but empirical support for their existence is surprisingly rare. Commonly applied univariate and bivariate approaches to detecting genetic constraints can underestimate their prevalence, with important aspects potentially tractable only within a multivariate framework. However, multivariate genetic analyses of data from natural populations are challenging because of modest sample sizes, incomplete pedigrees, and missing data. Here we present results from a study of a comprehensive set of life history traits (juvenile survival, age at first breeding, annual fecundity, and longevity) for both males and females in a wild, pedigreed, population of red deer (Cervus elaphus). We use factor analytic modeling of the genetic variance–covariance matrix (G) to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and take a multivariate approach to estimating genetic constraints. We consider a range of metrics designed to assess the effect of G on the deflection of a predicted response to selection away from the direction of fastest adaptation and on the evolvability of the traits. We found limited support for genetic constraint through genetic covariances between traits, both within sex and between sexes. We discuss these results with respect to other recent findings and to the problems of estimating these parameters for natural populations. PMID:25278555

Biology-Culture Co-evolution in Finite Populations.

PubMed

de Boer, Bart; Thompson, Bill

2018-01-19

Language is the result of two concurrent evolutionary processes: biological and cultural inheritance. An influential evolutionary hypothesis known as the moving target problem implies inherent limitations on the interactions between our two inheritance streams that result from a difference in pace: the speed of cultural evolution is thought to rule out cognitive adaptation to culturally evolving aspects of language. We examine this hypothesis formally by casting it as as a problem of adaptation in time-varying environments. We present a mathematical model of biology-culture co-evolution in finite populations: a generalisation of the Moran process, treating co-evolution as coupled non-independent Markov processes, providing a general formulation of the moving target hypothesis in precise probabilistic terms. Rapidly varying culture decreases the probability of biological adaptation. However, we show that this effect declines with population size and with stronger links between biology and culture: in realistically sized finite populations, stochastic effects can carry cognitive specialisations to fixation in the face of variable culture, especially if the effects of those specialisations are amplified through cultural evolution. These results support the view that language arises from interactions between our two major inheritance streams, rather than from one primary evolutionary process that dominates another.

Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population

PubMed Central

Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Slatkin, Montgomery; Song, Yun S.

2011-01-01

We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities.We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice. PMID:21266180

Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades.

PubMed

Vasilakopoulos, Paraskevas; Marshall, C Tara

2015-05-01

Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio-ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949-2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data-rich complex natural systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disentangling incentives effects of insurance coverage from adverse selection in the case of drug expenditure: a finite mixture approach.

PubMed

Munkin, Murat K; Trivedi, Pravin K

2010-09-01

This paper takes a finite mixture approach to model heterogeneity in incentive and selection effects of drug coverage on total drug expenditure among the Medicare elderly US population. Evidence is found that the positive drug expenditures of the elderly population can be decomposed into two groups different in the identified selection effects and interpreted as relatively healthy with lower average expenditures and relatively unhealthy with higher average expenditures, accounting for approximately 25 and 75% of the population, respectively. Adverse selection into drug insurance appears to be strong for the higher expenditure component and weak for the lower expenditure group. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

U.S. truck driver anthropometric study and multivariate anthropometric models for cab designs.

PubMed

Guan, Jinhua; Hsiao, Hongwei; Bradtmiller, Bruce; Kau, Tsui-Ying; Reed, Matthew R; Jahns, Steven K; Loczi, Josef; Hardee, H Lenora; Piamonte, Dominic Paul T

2012-10-01

This study presents data from a large-scale anthropometric study of U.S. truck drivers and the multivariate anthropometric models developed for the design of next-generation truck cabs. Up-to-date anthropometric information of the U.S. truck driver population is needed for the design of safe and ergonomically efficient truck cabs. We collected 35 anthropometric dimensions for 1,950 truck drivers (1,779 males and 171 females) across the continental United States using a sampling plan designed to capture the appropriate ethnic, gender, and age distributions of the truck driver population. Truck drivers are heavier than the U.S.general population, with a difference in mean body weight of 13.5 kg for males and 15.4 kg for females. They are also different in physique from the U.S. general population. In addition, the current truck drivers are heavier and different in physique compared to their counterparts of 25 to 30 years ago. The data obtained in this study provide more accurate anthropometric information for cab designs than do the current U.S. general population data or truck driver data collected 25 to 30 years ago. Multivariate anthropometric models, spanning 95% of the current truck driver population on the basis of a set of 12 anthropometric measurements, have been developed to facilitate future cab designs. The up-to-date truck driver anthropometric data and multivariate anthropometric models will benefit the design of future truck cabs which, in turn, will help promote the safety and health of the U.S. truck drivers.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Applications of numerical optimization methods to helicopter design problems: A survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miura, H.

1984-01-01

A survey of applications of mathematical programming methods is used to improve the design of helicopters and their components. Applications of multivariable search techniques in the finite dimensional space are considered. Five categories of helicopter design problems are considered: (1) conceptual and preliminary design, (2) rotor-system design, (3) airframe structures design, (4) control system design, and (5) flight trajectory planning. Key technical progress in numerical optimization methods relevant to rotorcraft applications are summarized.

Applications of numerical optimization methods to helicopter design problems - A survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miura, H.

1985-01-01

A survey of applications of mathematical programming methods is used to improve the design of helicopters and their components. Applications of multivariable search techniques in the finite dimensional space are considered. Five categories of helicopter design problems are considered: (1) conceptual and preliminary design, (2) rotor-system design, (3) airframe structures design, (4) control system design, and (5) flight trajectory planning. Key technical progress in numerical optimization methods relevant to rotorcraft applications are summarized.

Applications of numerical optimization methods to helicopter design problems - A survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miura, H.

1984-01-01

A survey of applications of mathematical programming methods is used to improve the design of helicopters and their components. Applications of multivariable search techniques in the finite dimensional space are considered. Five categories of helicopter design problems are considered: (1) conceptual and preliminary design, (2) rotor-system design, (3) airframe structures design, (4) control system design, and (5) flight trajectory planning. Key technical progress in numerical optimization methods relevant to rotorcraft applications are summarized.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Wu, Y.-T.; Dias, B.; Rajagopal, K. R.

1988-01-01

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.

PubMed

Singh, Pushpendra; Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

2017-03-01

for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of 'Fourier intrinsic band functions' (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time-frequency-energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis

PubMed Central

Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

2017-01-01

for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of ‘Fourier intrinsic band functions’ (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time–frequency–energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms. PMID:28413352

A multivariate spatial mixture model for areal data: examining regional differences in standardized test scores

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2013-01-01

Summary Researchers in the health and social sciences often wish to examine joint spatial patterns for two or more related outcomes. Examples include infant birth weight and gestational length, psychosocial and behavioral indices, and educational test scores from different cognitive domains. We propose a multivariate spatial mixture model for the joint analysis of continuous individual-level outcomes that are referenced to areal units. The responses are modeled as a finite mixture of multivariate normals, which accommodates a wide range of marginal response distributions and allows investigators to examine covariate effects within subpopulations of interest. The model has a hierarchical structure built at the individual level (i.e., individuals are nested within areal units), and thus incorporates both individual- and areal-level predictors as well as spatial random effects for each mixture component. Conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors on the random effects provide spatial smoothing and allow the shape of the multivariate distribution to vary flexibly across geographic regions. We adopt a Bayesian modeling approach and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo model fitting algorithm that relies primarily on closed-form full conditionals. We use the model to explore geographic patterns in end-of-grade math and reading test scores among school-age children in North Carolina. PMID:26401059

Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

DOE PAGES

Harper, Marc; Fryer, Dashiell

2016-08-25

Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISSmore » candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.« less

Polynomial reduction and evaluation of tree- and loop-level CHY amplitudes

DOE PAGES

Zlotnikov, Michael

2016-08-24

We develop a polynomial reduction procedure that transforms any gauge fixed CHY amplitude integrand for n scattering particles into a σ-moduli multivariate polynomial of what we call the standard form. We show that a standard form polynomial must have a specific ladder type monomial structure, which has finite size at any n, with highest multivariate degree given by (n – 3)(n – 4)/2. This set of monomials spans a complete basis for polynomials with rational coefficients in kinematic data on the support of scattering equations. Subsequently, at tree and one-loop level, we employ the global residue theorem to derive amore » prescription that evaluates any CHY amplitude by means of collecting simple residues at infinity only. Furthermore, the prescription is then applied explicitly to some tree and one-loop amplitude examples.« less

Empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of "unsafety": the multivariate regression method.

PubMed

Hauer, E

1992-10-01

There are two kinds of clues to the unsafety of an entity: its traits (such as traffic, geometry, age, or gender) and its historical accident record. The Empirical Bayes approach to unsafety estimation makes use of both kinds of clues. It requires information about the mean and the variance of the unsafety in a "reference population" of similar entities. The method now in use for this purpose suffers from several shortcomings. First, a very large reference population is required. Second, the choice of reference population is to some extent arbitrary. Third, entities in the reference population usually cannot match the traits of the entity the unsafety of which is estimated. To alleviate these shortcomings the multivariate regression method for estimating the mean and variance of unsafety in reference populations is offered. Its logical foundations are described and its soundness is demonstrated. The use of the multivariate method makes the Empirical Bayes approach to unsafety estimation applicable to a wider range of circumstances and yields better estimates of unsafety. The application of the method to the tasks of identifying deviant entities and of estimating the effect of interventions on unsafety are discussed and illustrated by numerical examples.

Simplified expressions that incorporate finite pulse effects into coherent two-dimensional optical spectra.

PubMed

Do, Thanh Nhut; Gelin, Maxim F; Tan, Howe-Siang

2017-10-14

We derive general expressions that incorporate finite pulse envelope effects into a coherent two-dimensional optical spectroscopy (2DOS) technique. These expressions are simpler and less computationally intensive than the conventional triple integral calculations needed to simulate 2DOS spectra. The simplified expressions involving multiplications of arbitrary pulse spectra with 2D spectral response function are shown to be exactly equal to the conventional triple integral calculations of 2DOS spectra if the 2D spectral response functions do not vary with population time. With minor modifications, they are also accurate for 2D spectral response functions with quantum beats and exponential decay during population time. These conditions cover a broad range of experimental 2DOS spectra. For certain analytically defined pulse spectra, we also derived expressions of 2D spectra for arbitrary population time dependent 2DOS spectral response functions. Having simpler and more efficient methods to calculate experimentally relevant 2DOS spectra with finite pulse effect considered will be important in the simulation and understanding of the complex systems routinely being studied by using 2DOS.

Cooperative combinatorial optimization: evolutionary computation case study.

PubMed

Burgin, Mark; Eberbach, Eugene

2008-01-01

This paper presents a formalization of the notion of cooperation and competition of multiple systems that work toward a common optimization goal of the population using evolutionary computation techniques. It is proved that evolutionary algorithms are more expressive than conventional recursive algorithms, such as Turing machines. Three classes of evolutionary computations are introduced and studied: bounded finite, unbounded finite, and infinite computations. Universal evolutionary algorithms are constructed. Such properties of evolutionary algorithms as completeness, optimality, and search decidability are examined. A natural extension of evolutionary Turing machine (ETM) model is proposed to properly reflect phenomena of cooperation and competition in the whole population.

The algebraic theory of latent projectors in lambda matrices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denman, E. D.; Leyva-Ramos, J.; Jeon, G. J.

1981-01-01

Multivariable systems such as a finite-element model of vibrating structures, control systems, and large-scale systems are often formulated in terms of differential equations which give rise to lambda matrices. The present investigation is concerned with the formulation of the algebraic theory of lambda matrices and the relationship of latent roots, latent vectors, and latent projectors to the eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and eigenprojectors of the companion form. The chain rule for latent projectors and eigenprojectors for the repeated latent root or eigenvalues is given.

Solving Multi-variate Polynomial Equations in a Finite Field

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Algebraic Background In this section, some algebraic definitions and basics are discussed as they pertain to this re- search. For a more detailed...definitions and basics are discussed as they pertain to this research. For a more detailed treatment, consult a graph theory text such as [10]. A graph G...graph if V(G) can be partitioned into k subsets V1,V2, ...,Vk such that uv is only an edge of G if u and v belong to different partite sets. If, in

Assessing Multivariate Constraints to Evolution across Ten Long-Term Avian Studies

PubMed Central

Teplitsky, Celine; Tarka, Maja; Møller, Anders P.; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Balbontín, Javier; Burke, Terry A.; Doutrelant, Claire; Gregoire, Arnaud; Hansson, Bengt; Hasselquist, Dennis; Gustafsson, Lars; de Lope, Florentino; Marzal, Alfonso; Mills, James A.; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.; Yarrall, John W.; Charmantier, Anne

2014-01-01

Background In a rapidly changing world, it is of fundamental importance to understand processes constraining or facilitating adaptation through microevolution. As different traits of an organism covary, genetic correlations are expected to affect evolutionary trajectories. However, only limited empirical data are available. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigate the extent to which multivariate constraints affect the rate of adaptation, focusing on four morphological traits often shown to harbour large amounts of genetic variance and considered to be subject to limited evolutionary constraints. Our data set includes unique long-term data for seven bird species and a total of 10 populations. We estimate population-specific matrices of genetic correlations and multivariate selection coefficients to predict evolutionary responses to selection. Using Bayesian methods that facilitate the propagation of errors in estimates, we compare (1) the rate of adaptation based on predicted response to selection when including genetic correlations with predictions from models where these genetic correlations were set to zero and (2) the multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection to the average evolvability in random directions of the phenotypic space. We show that genetic correlations on average decrease the predicted rate of adaptation by 28%. Multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection was systematically lower than average evolvability in random directions of space. These significant reductions in the rate of adaptation and reduced evolvability were due to a general nonalignment of selection and genetic variance, notably orthogonality of directional selection with the size axis along which most (60%) of the genetic variance is found. Conclusions These results suggest that genetic correlations can impose significant constraints on the evolution of avian morphology in wild populations. This could have important impacts on evolutionary dynamics and hence population persistence in the face of rapid environmental change. PMID:24608111

Food for Thought: A Population Simulation Kit. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fletcher, Carol C.

Designed to foster an understanding of some of the relationships among population growth and distribution of people, food, and land area, this simulation kit deals with the following concepts: (1) the finite nature of land and resources, (2) the size and rate of growth of population, (3) the unequal distribution of population throughout the world,…

THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVIY OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO REPRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in using population models in environmental assessments. Matrix population models represent a valuable tool for extrapolating from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to effects on finite populati...

Finding Groups Using Model-based Cluster Analysis: Heterogeneous Emotional Self-regulatory Processes and Heavy Alcohol Use Risk

PubMed Central

Mun, Eun-Young; von Eye, Alexander; Bates, Marsha E.; Vaschillo, Evgeny G.

2010-01-01

Model-based cluster analysis is a new clustering procedure to investigate population heterogeneity utilizing finite mixture multivariate normal densities. It is an inferentially based, statistically principled procedure that allows comparison of non-nested models using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to compare multiple models and identify the optimum number of clusters. The current study clustered 36 young men and women based on their baseline heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV), chronic alcohol use, and reasons for drinking. Two cluster groups were identified and labeled High Alcohol Risk and Normative groups. Compared to the Normative group, individuals in the High Alcohol Risk group had higher levels of alcohol use and more strongly endorsed disinhibition and suppression reasons for use. The High Alcohol Risk group showed significant HRV changes in response to positive and negative emotional and appetitive picture cues, compared to neutral cues. In contrast, the Normative group showed a significant HRV change only to negative cues. Findings suggest that the individuals with autonomic self-regulatory difficulties may be more susceptible to heavy alcohol use and use alcohol for emotional regulation. PMID:18331138

Continuous and Discrete Structured Population Models with Applications to Epidemiology and Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tingting

In this dissertation, we develop structured population models to examine how changes in the environmental affect population processes. In Chapter 2, we develop a general continuous time size structured model describing a susceptible-infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represent the environment. We develop a second-order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. We numerically compare the second order high resolution scheme with a first order finite difference scheme. Higher order of convergence and high resolution property are observed in the second order finite difference scheme. In addition, we apply our model to a multi-host wildlife disease problem, questions regarding the impact of the initial population structure and transition rate within each host are numerically explored. In Chapter 3, we use a stage structured matrix model for wildlife population to study the recovery process of the population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes for the population to recover to its pre-event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity or elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population distribution, vital rates and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size, but is sensitive to the initial population structure. Moreover, it is more sensitive to the reduction proportion to the vital rates of the population caused by the catastrophe event relative to the duration of impact of the event. We present the potential application of our model to the amphibian population dynamic and the recovery of a certain plant population. In addition, we explore, in details, the application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In Chapter 4, we summarize the results from Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and explore some further avenues of our research.

Sex Hormones and Sleep in Men and Women From the General Population: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

PubMed

Kische, Hanna; Ewert, Ralf; Fietze, Ingo; Gross, Stefan; Wallaschofski, Henri; Völzke, Henry; Dörr, Marcus; Nauck, Matthias; Obst, Anne; Stubbe, Beate; Penzel, Thomas; Haring, Robin

2016-11-01

Associations between sex hormones and sleep habits originate mainly from small and selected patient-based samples. We examined data from a population-based sample with various sleep characteristics and the major part of sex hormones measured by mass spectrometry. We used data from 204 men and 213 women of the cross-sectional Study of Health in Pomerania-TREND. Associations of total T (TT) and free T, androstenedione (ASD), estrone, estradiol (E2), dehydroepiandrosterone-sulphate, SHBG, and E2 to TT ratio with sleep measures (including total sleep time, sleep efficiency, wake after sleep onset, apnea-hypopnea index [AHI], Insomnia Severity Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) were assessed by sex-specific multivariable regression models. In men, age-adjusted associations of TT (odds ratio 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.83), free T, and SHBG with AHI were rendered nonsignificant after multivariable adjustment. In multivariable analyses, ASD was associated with Epworth Sleepiness Scale (β-coefficient per SD increase in ASD: -0.71; 95% CI: -1.18 to -0.25). In women, multivariable analyses showed positive associations of dehydroepiandrosterone-sulphate with wake after sleep onset (β-coefficient: .16; 95% CI 0.03-0.28) and of E2 and E2 to TT ratio with Epworth Sleepiness Scale. Additionally, free T and SHBG were associated with AHI in multivariable models among premenopausal women. The present cross-sectional, population-based study observed sex-specific associations of androgens, E2, and SHBG with sleep apnea and daytime sleepiness. However, multivariable-adjusted analyses confirmed the impact of body composition and health-related lifestyle on the association between sex hormones and sleep.

Solfatara volcano subsurface imaging: two different approaches to process and interpret multi-variate data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardinetti, Stefano; Bruno, Pier Paolo; Lavoué, François; Gresse, Marceau; Vandemeulebrouck, Jean; Revil, André

2017-04-01

The need to reduce model uncertainty and produce a more reliable geophysical imaging and interpretations is nowadays a fundamental task required to geophysics techniques applied in complex environments such as Solfatara Volcano. The use of independent geophysical methods allows to obtain many information on the subsurface due to the different sensitivities of the data towards parameters such as compressional and shearing wave velocities, bulk electrical conductivity, or density. The joint processing of these multiple physical properties can lead to a very detailed characterization of the subsurface and therefore enhance our imaging and our interpretation. In this work, we develop two different processing approaches based on reflection seismology and seismic P-wave tomography on one hand, and electrical data acquired over the same line, on the other hand. From these data, we obtain an image-guided electrical resistivity tomography and a post processing integration of tomographic results. The image-guided electrical resistivity tomography is obtained by regularizing the inversion of the electrical data with structural constraints extracted from a migrated seismic section using image processing tools. This approach enables to focus the reconstruction of electrical resistivity anomalies along the features visible in the seismic section, and acts as a guide for interpretation in terms of subsurface structures and processes. To integrate co-registrated P-wave velocity and electrical resistivity values, we apply a data mining tool, the k-means algorithm, to individuate relationships between the two set of variables. This algorithm permits to individuate different clusters with the objective to minimize the sum of squared Euclidean distances within each cluster and maximize it between clusters for the multivariate data set. We obtain a partitioning of the multivariate data set in a finite number of well-correlated clusters, representative of the optimum clustering of our geophysical variables (P-wave velocities and electrical resistivities). The result is an integrated tomography that shows a finite number of homogeneous geophysical facies, and therefore permits to highlight the main geological features of the subsurface.

Mapping CHU9D Utility Scores from the PedsQLTM 4.0 SF-15.

PubMed

Mpundu-Kaambwa, Christine; Chen, Gang; Russo, Remo; Stevens, Katherine; Petersen, Karin Dam; Ratcliffe, Julie

2017-04-01

The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 Short Form 15 Generic Core Scales (hereafter the PedsQL) and the Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions (CHU9D) are two generic instruments designed to measure health-related quality of life in children and adolescents in the general population and paediatric patient groups living with specific health conditions. Although the PedsQL is widely used among paediatric patient populations, presently it is not possible to directly use the scores from the instrument to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for application in economic evaluation because it produces summary scores which are not preference-based. This paper examines different econometric mapping techniques for estimating CHU9D utility scores from the PedsQL for the purpose of calculating QALYs for cost-utility analysis. The PedsQL and the CHU9D were completed by a community sample of 755 Australian adolescents aged 15-17 years. Seven regression models were estimated: ordinary least squares estimator, generalised linear model, robust MM estimator, multivariate factorial polynomial estimator, beta-binomial estimator, finite mixture model and multinomial logistic model. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess predictive ability of the models. The MM estimator with stepwise-selected PedsQL dimension scores as explanatory variables had the best predictive accuracy using MAE and the equivalent beta-binomial model had the best predictive accuracy using MSE. Our mapping algorithm facilitates the estimation of health-state utilities for use within economic evaluations where only PedsQL data is available and is suitable for use in community-based adolescents aged 15-17 years. Applicability of the algorithm in younger populations should be assessed in further research.

On the degrees of freedom of reduced-rank estimators in multivariate regression

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, A.; Chen, K.; Wang, N.; Zhu, J.

2015-01-01

Summary We study the effective degrees of freedom of a general class of reduced-rank estimators for multivariate regression in the framework of Stein's unbiased risk estimation. A finite-sample exact unbiased estimator is derived that admits a closed-form expression in terms of the thresholded singular values of the least-squares solution and hence is readily computable. The results continue to hold in the high-dimensional setting where both the predictor and the response dimensions may be larger than the sample size. The derived analytical form facilitates the investigation of theoretical properties and provides new insights into the empirical behaviour of the degrees of freedom. In particular, we examine the differences and connections between the proposed estimator and a commonly-used naive estimator. The use of the proposed estimator leads to efficient and accurate prediction risk estimation and model selection, as demonstrated by simulation studies and a data example. PMID:26702155

Scattering amplitudes from multivariate polynomial division

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrolia, Pierpaolo; Mirabella, Edoardo; Ossola, Giovanni; Peraro, Tiziano

2012-11-01

We show that the evaluation of scattering amplitudes can be formulated as a problem of multivariate polynomial division, with the components of the integration-momenta as indeterminates. We present a recurrence relation which, independently of the number of loops, leads to the multi-particle pole decomposition of the integrands of the scattering amplitudes. The recursive algorithm is based on the weak Nullstellensatz theorem and on the division modulo the Gröbner basis associated to all possible multi-particle cuts. We apply it to dimensionally regulated one-loop amplitudes, recovering the well-known integrand-decomposition formula. Finally, we focus on the maximum-cut, defined as a system of on-shell conditions constraining the components of all the integration-momenta. By means of the Finiteness Theorem and of the Shape Lemma, we prove that the residue at the maximum-cut is parametrized by a number of coefficients equal to the number of solutions of the cut itself.

Regularization with numerical extrapolation for finite and UV-divergent multi-loop integrals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Doncker, E.; Yuasa, F.; Kato, K.; Ishikawa, T.; Kapenga, J.; Olagbemi, O.

2018-03-01

We give numerical integration results for Feynman loop diagrams such as those covered by Laporta (2000) and by Baikov and Chetyrkin (2010), and which may give rise to loop integrals with UV singularities. We explore automatic adaptive integration using multivariate techniques from the PARINT package for multivariate integration, as well as iterated integration with programs from the QUADPACK package, and a trapezoidal method based on a double exponential transformation. PARINT is layered over MPI (Message Passing Interface), and incorporates advanced parallel/distributed techniques including load balancing among processes that may be distributed over a cluster or a network/grid of nodes. Results are included for 2-loop vertex and box diagrams and for sets of 2-, 3- and 4-loop self-energy diagrams with or without UV terms. Numerical regularization of integrals with singular terms is achieved by linear and non-linear extrapolation methods.

The finite state projection algorithm for the solution of the chemical master equation.

PubMed

Munsky, Brian; Khammash, Mustafa

2006-01-28

This article introduces the finite state projection (FSP) method for use in the stochastic analysis of chemically reacting systems. One can describe the chemical populations of such systems with probability density vectors that evolve according to a set of linear ordinary differential equations known as the chemical master equation (CME). Unlike Monte Carlo methods such as the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) or tau leaping, the FSP directly solves or approximates the solution of the CME. If the CME describes a system that has a finite number of distinct population vectors, the FSP method provides an exact analytical solution. When an infinite or extremely large number of population variations is possible, the state space can be truncated, and the FSP method provides a certificate of accuracy for how closely the truncated space approximation matches the true solution. The proposed FSP algorithm systematically increases the projection space in order to meet prespecified tolerance in the total probability density error. For any system in which a sufficiently accurate FSP exists, the FSP algorithm is shown to converge in a finite number of steps. The FSP is utilized to solve two examples taken from the field of systems biology, and comparisons are made between the FSP, the SSA, and tau leaping algorithms. In both examples, the FSP outperforms the SSA in terms of accuracy as well as computational efficiency. Furthermore, due to very small molecular counts in these particular examples, the FSP also performs far more effectively than tau leaping methods.

The Hawk-Dove game in phenotypically homogeneous and heterogeneous populations of finite dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laruelle, Annick; da Silva Rocha, André Barreira; Escobedo, Ramón

2018-02-01

The Hawk-Dove game played between individuals in populations of finite dimension is analyzed by means of a stochastic model. We take into account both cases when all individuals in the population are either phenotypically homogeneous or heterogeneous. A strategy in the model is a gene representing the probability of playing the Hawk strategy. Individual interactions at the microscopic level are described by a genetic algorithm where evolution results from the interplay among selection, mutation, drift and cross-over of genes. We show that the behavioral patterns observed at the macroscopic level can be reproduced as the emergent result of individual interactions governed by the rules of the Hawk-Dove game at the microscopic level. We study how the results of the genetic algorithm compare with those obtained in evolutionary game theory, finding that, although genes continuously change both their presence and frequency in the population over time, the population average behavior always achieves stationarity and, when this happens, the final average strategy played in the population oscillates around the evolutionarily stable strategy in the homogeneous population case or the neutrally stable set in the heterogeneous population case.

Two-sample tests and one-way MANOVA for multivariate biomarker data with nondetects.

PubMed

Thulin, M

2016-09-10

Testing whether the mean vector of a multivariate set of biomarkers differs between several populations is an increasingly common problem in medical research. Biomarker data is often left censored because some measurements fall below the laboratory's detection limit. We investigate how such censoring affects multivariate two-sample and one-way multivariate analysis of variance tests. Type I error rates, power and robustness to increasing censoring are studied, under both normality and non-normality. Parametric tests are found to perform better than non-parametric alternatives, indicating that the current recommendations for analysis of censored multivariate data may have to be revised. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Heat transfer models for predicting Salmonella enteritidis in shell eggs through supply chain distribution.

PubMed

Almonacid, S; Simpson, R; Teixeira, A

2007-11-01

Egg and egg preparations are important vehicles for Salmonella enteritidis infections. The influence of time-temperature becomes important when the presence of this organism is found in commercial shell eggs. A computer-aided mathematical model was validated to estimate surface and interior temperature of shell eggs under variable ambient and refrigerated storage temperature. A risk assessment of S. enteritidis based on the use of this model, coupled with S. enteritidis kinetics, has already been reported in a companion paper published earlier in JFS. The model considered the actual geometry and composition of shell eggs and was solved by numerical techniques (finite differences and finite elements). Parameters of interest such as local (h) and global (U) heat transfer coefficient, thermal conductivity, and apparent volumetric specific heat were estimated by an inverse procedure from experimental temperature measurement. In order to assess the error in predicting microbial population growth, theoretical and experimental temperatures were applied to a S. enteritidis growth model taken from the literature. Errors between values of microbial population growth calculated from model predicted compared with experimentally measured temperatures were satisfactorily low: 1.1% and 0.8% for the finite difference and finite element model, respectively.

Estimating population size with correlated sampling unit estimates

Treesearch

David C. Bowden; Gary C. White; Alan B. Franklin; Joseph L. Ganey

2003-01-01

Finite population sampling theory is useful in estimating total population size (abundance) from abundance estimates of each sampled unit (quadrat). We develop estimators that allow correlated quadrat abundance estimates, even for quadrats in different sampling strata. Correlated quadrat abundance estimates based on mark–recapture or distance sampling methods occur...

Stability and robustness analysis of cooperation cycles driven by destructive agents in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Requejo, Rubén J.; Camacho, Juan; Cuesta, José A.; Arenas, Alex

2012-08-01

The emergence and promotion of cooperation are two of the main issues in evolutionary game theory, as cooperation is amenable to exploitation by defectors, which take advantage of cooperative individuals at no cost, dooming them to extinction. It has been recently shown that the existence of purely destructive agents (termed jokers) acting on the common enterprises (public goods games) can induce stable limit cycles among cooperation, defection, and destruction when infinite populations are considered. These cycles allow for time lapses in which cooperators represent a relevant fraction of the population, providing a mechanism for the emergence of cooperative states in nature and human societies. Here we study analytically and through agent-based simulations the dynamics generated by jokers in finite populations for several selection rules. Cycles appear in all cases studied, thus showing that the joker dynamics generically yields a robust cyclic behavior not restricted to infinite populations. We also compute the average time in which the population consists mostly of just one strategy and compare the results with numerical simulations.

Biological control via "ecological" damping: An approach that attenuates non-target effects.

PubMed

Parshad, Rana D; Quansah, Emmanuel; Black, Kelly; Beauregard, Matthew

2016-03-01

In this work we develop and analyze a mathematical model of biological control to prevent or attenuate the explosive increase of an invasive species population, that functions as a top predator, in a three-species food chain. We allow for finite time blow-up in the model as a mathematical construct to mimic the explosive increase in population, enabling the species to reach "disastrous", and uncontrollable population levels, in a finite time. We next improve the mathematical model and incorporate controls that are shown to drive down the invasive population growth and, in certain cases, eliminate blow-up. Hence, the population does not reach an uncontrollable level. The controls avoid chemical treatments and/or natural enemy introduction, thus eliminating various non-target effects associated with such classical methods. We refer to these new controls as "ecological damping", as their inclusion dampens the invasive species population growth. Further, we improve prior results on the regularity and Turing instability of the three-species model that were derived in Parshad et al. (2014). Lastly, we confirm the existence of spatiotemporal chaos. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A simple branching model that reproduces language family and language population distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwämmle, Veit; de Oliveira, Paulo Murilo Castro

2009-07-01

Human history leaves fingerprints in human languages. Little is known about language evolution and its study is of great importance. Here we construct a simple stochastic model and compare its results to statistical data of real languages. The model is based on the recent finding that language changes occur independently of the population size. We find agreement with the data additionally assuming that languages may be distinguished by having at least one among a finite, small number of different features. This finite set is also used in order to define the distance between two languages, similarly to linguistics tradition since Swadesh.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

The role of area-level deprivation and gender in participation in population-based faecal immunochemical test (FIT) colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Clarke, Nicholas; McNamara, Deirdre; Kearney, Patricia M; O'Morain, Colm A; Shearer, Nikki; Sharp, Linda

2016-12-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of sex and deprivation on participation in a population-based faecal immunochemical test (FIT) colorectal cancer screening programme. The study population included 9785 individuals invited to participate in two rounds of a population-based biennial FIT-based screening programme, in a relatively deprived area of Dublin, Ireland. Explanatory variables included in the analysis were sex, deprivation category of area of residence and age (at end of screening). The primary outcome variable modelled was participation status in both rounds combined (with "participation" defined as having taken part in either or both rounds of screening). Poisson regression with a log link and robust error variance was used to estimate relative risks (RR) for participation. As a sensitivity analysis, data were stratified by screening round. In both the univariable and multivariable models deprivation was strongly associated with participation. Increasing affluence was associated with higher participation; participation was 26% higher in people resident in the most affluent compared to the most deprived areas (multivariable RR=1.26: 95% CI 1.21-1.30). Participation was significantly lower in males (multivariable RR=0.96: 95%CI 0.95-0.97) and generally increased with increasing age (trend per age group, multivariable RR=1.02: 95%CI, 1.01-1.02). No significant interactions between the explanatory variables were found. The effects of deprivation and sex were similar by screening round. Deprivation and male gender are independently associated with lower uptake of population-based FIT colorectal cancer screening, even in a relatively deprived setting. Development of evidence-based interventions to increase uptake in these disadvantaged groups is urgently required. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimating the ratio of multivariate recurrent event rates with application to a blood transfusion study.

PubMed

Ning, Jing; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Choi, Sangbum; Piao, Jin; Hong, Chuan; Del Junco, Deborah J; Rahbar, Elaheh; Fox, Erin E; Holcomb, John B; Wang, Mei-Cheng

2017-08-01

In comparative effectiveness studies of multicomponent, sequential interventions like blood product transfusion (plasma, platelets, red blood cells) for trauma and critical care patients, the timing and dynamics of treatment relative to the fragility of a patient's condition is often overlooked and underappreciated. While many hospitals have established massive transfusion protocols to ensure that physiologically optimal combinations of blood products are rapidly available, the period of time required to achieve a specified massive transfusion standard (e.g. a 1:1 or 1:2 ratio of plasma or platelets:red blood cells) has been ignored. To account for the time-varying characteristics of transfusions, we use semiparametric rate models for multivariate recurrent events to estimate blood product ratios. We use latent variables to account for multiple sources of informative censoring (early surgical or endovascular hemorrhage control procedures or death). The major advantage is that the distributions of latent variables and the dependence structure between the multivariate recurrent events and informative censoring need not be specified. Thus, our approach is robust to complex model assumptions. We establish asymptotic properties and evaluate finite sample performance through simulations, and apply the method to data from the PRospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion study.

A Multivariate Solution of the Multivariate Ranking and Selection Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-01

Taneja (1972)), a ’a for a vector of constants c (Krishnaiah and Rizvi (1966)), the generalized variance ( Gnanadesikan and Gupta (1970)), iegier (1976...Olk-in, I. and Sobel, M. (1977). Selecting and Ordering Populations: A New Statistical Methodology, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. Gnanadesikan

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

LFSPMC: Linear feature selection program using the probability of misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guseman, L. F., Jr.; Marion, B. P.

1975-01-01

The computational procedure and associated computer program for a linear feature selection technique are presented. The technique assumes that: a finite number, m, of classes exists; each class is described by an n-dimensional multivariate normal density function of its measurement vectors; the mean vector and covariance matrix for each density function are known (or can be estimated); and the a priori probability for each class is known. The technique produces a single linear combination of the original measurements which minimizes the one-dimensional probability of misclassification defined by the transformed densities.

A mixed model framework for teratology studies.

PubMed

Braeken, Johan; Tuerlinckx, Francis

2009-10-01

A mixed model framework is presented to model the characteristic multivariate binary anomaly data as provided in some teratology studies. The key features of the model are the incorporation of covariate effects, a flexible random effects distribution by means of a finite mixture, and the application of copula functions to better account for the relation structure of the anomalies. The framework is motivated by data of the Boston Anticonvulsant Teratogenesis study and offers an integrated approach to investigate substantive questions, concerning general and anomaly-specific exposure effects of covariates, interrelations between anomalies, and objective diagnostic measurement.

Integrated Data Visualization and Virtual Reality Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryer, David A.

1998-01-01

The Integrated Data Visualization and Virtual Reality Tool (IDVVRT) Phase II effort was for the design and development of an innovative Data Visualization Environment Tool (DVET) for NASA engineers and scientists, enabling them to visualize complex multidimensional and multivariate data in a virtual environment. The objectives of the project were to: (1) demonstrate the transfer and manipulation of standard engineering data in a virtual world; (2) demonstrate the effects of design and changes using finite element analysis tools; and (3) determine the training and engineering design and analysis effectiveness of the visualization system.

Calculation of the equilibrium distribution for a deleterious gene by the finite Fourier transform.

PubMed

Lange, K

1982-03-01

In a population of constant size every deleterious gene eventually attains a stochastic equilibrium between mutation and selection. The individual probabilities of this equilibrium distribution can be computed by an application of the finite Fourier transform to an appropriate branching process formula. Specific numerical examples are discussed for the autosomal dominants, Huntington's chorea and chondrodystrophy, and for the X-linked recessive, Becker's muscular dystrophy.

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

PubMed

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

On the evolution of harming and recognition in finite panmictic and infinite structured populations

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Laurent; Feldman, Marcus W.; Rousset, François

2010-01-01

Natural selection may favor two very different types of social behaviors that have costs in vital rates (fecundity and/or survival) to the actor: helping behaviors, which increase the vital rates of recipients, and harming behaviors, which reduce the vital rates of recipients. While social evolutionary theory has mainly dealt with helping behaviors, competition for limited resources creates ecological conditions where an actor may benefit from expressing behaviors that reduce the vital rates of neighbours. This may occur if the reduction in vital rates decreases the intensity of competition experienced by the actor or that experienced by its offspring. Here, we explore the joint evolution of neutral recognition markers and marker-based costly conditional harming whereby actors express harming, conditional on actor and recipient bearing different conspicuous markers. We do so for two complementary demographic scenarios: finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. We find that marker-based conditional harming can evolve under a large range of recombination rates and group sizes under both finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. Direct comparison with results for the evolution of marker-based conditional helping reveals that, if everything else is equal, marker-based conditional harming is often more likely to evolve than marker-based conditional. PMID:19624725

Environmental effects on the structure of the G-matrix.

PubMed

Wood, Corlett W; Brodie, Edmund D

2015-11-01

Genetic correlations between traits determine the multivariate response to selection in the short term, and thereby play a causal role in evolutionary change. Although individual studies have documented environmentally induced changes in genetic correlations, the nature and extent of environmental effects on multivariate genetic architecture across species and environments remain largely uncharacterized. We reviewed the literature for estimates of the genetic variance-covariance (G) matrix in multiple environments, and compared differences in G between environments to the divergence in G between conspecific populations (measured in a common garden). We found that the predicted evolutionary trajectory differed as strongly between environments as it did between populations. Between-environment differences in the underlying structure of G (total genetic variance and the relative magnitude and orientation of genetic correlations) were equal to or greater than between-population differences. Neither environmental novelty, nor the difference in mean phenotype predicted these differences in G. Our results suggest that environmental effects on multivariate genetic architecture may be comparable to the divergence that accumulates over dozens or hundreds of generations between populations. We outline avenues of future research to address the limitations of existing data and characterize the extent to which lability in genetic correlations shapes evolution in changing environments. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Speciation in the Derrida-Higgs model with finite genomes and spatial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

2017-02-01

The speciation model proposed by Derrida and Higgs demonstrated that a sexually reproducing population can split into different species in the absence of natural selection or any type of geographic isolation, provided that mating is assortative and the number of genes involved in the process is infinite. Here we revisit this model and simulate it for finite genomes, focusing on the question of how many genes it actually takes to trigger neutral sympatric speciation. We find that, for typical parameters used in the original model, it takes the order of 105 genes. We compare the results with a similar spatially explicit model where about 100 genes suffice for speciation. We show that when the number of genes is small the species that emerge are strongly segregated in space. For a larger number of genes, on the other hand, the spatial structure of the population is less important and the species distribution overlap considerably.

Spectral simplicity of apparent complexity. II. Exact complexities and complexity spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riechers, Paul M.; Crutchfield, James P.

2018-03-01

The meromorphic functional calculus developed in Part I overcomes the nondiagonalizability of linear operators that arises often in the temporal evolution of complex systems and is generic to the metadynamics of predicting their behavior. Using the resulting spectral decomposition, we derive closed-form expressions for correlation functions, finite-length Shannon entropy-rate approximates, asymptotic entropy rate, excess entropy, transient information, transient and asymptotic state uncertainties, and synchronization information of stochastic processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models. This introduces analytical tractability to investigating information processing in discrete-event stochastic processes, symbolic dynamics, and chaotic dynamical systems. Comparisons reveal mathematical similarities between complexity measures originally thought to capture distinct informational and computational properties. We also introduce a new kind of spectral analysis via coronal spectrograms and the frequency-dependent spectra of past-future mutual information. We analyze a number of examples to illustrate the methods, emphasizing processes with multivariate dependencies beyond pairwise correlation. This includes spectral decomposition calculations for one representative example in full detail.

Exact simulation of max-stable processes.

PubMed

Dombry, Clément; Engelke, Sebastian; Oesting, Marco

2016-06-01

Max-stable processes play an important role as models for spatial extreme events. Their complex structure as the pointwise maximum over an infinite number of random functions makes their simulation difficult. Algorithms based on finite approximations are often inexact and computationally inefficient. We present a new algorithm for exact simulation of a max-stable process at a finite number of locations. It relies on the idea of simulating only the extremal functions, that is, those functions in the construction of a max-stable process that effectively contribute to the pointwise maximum. We further generalize the algorithm by Dieker & Mikosch (2015) for Brown-Resnick processes and use it for exact simulation via the spectral measure. We study the complexity of both algorithms, prove that our new approach via extremal functions is always more efficient, and provide closed-form expressions for their implementation that cover most popular models for max-stable processes and multivariate extreme value distributions. For simulation on dense grids, an adaptive design of the extremal function algorithm is proposed.

Selection for sex in finite populations.

PubMed

Roze, D

2014-07-01

Finite population size generates interference between selected loci, which has been shown to favour increased rates of recombination. In this article, I present different analytical models exploring selection acting on a 'sex modifier locus' (that affects the relative investment into asexual and sexual reproduction) in a finite population. Two forms of selective forces act on the modifier: direct selection due to intrinsic costs associated with sexual reproduction and indirect selection generated by one or two other loci affecting fitness. The results show that indirect selective forces differ from those acting on a recombination modifier even in the case of a haploid population: in particular, a single selected locus generates indirect selection for sex, while two loci are required in the case of a recombination modifier. This effect stems from the fact that modifier alleles increasing sex escape more easily from low-fitness genetic backgrounds than alleles coding for lower rates of sex. Extrapolating the results from three-locus models to a large number of loci at mutation-selection balance indicates that in the parameter range where indirect selection is strong enough to outweigh a substantial cost of sex, interactions between selected loci have a stronger effect than the sum of individual effects of each selected locus. Comparisons with multilocus simulation results show that such extrapolations may provide correct predictions for the evolutionarily stable rate of sex, unless the cost of sex is high. © 2014 The Author. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Head and facial anthropometry of mixed-race US Army male soldiers for military design and sizing: a pilot study.

PubMed

Yokota, Miyo

2005-05-01

In the United States, the biologically admixed population is increasing. Such demographic changes may affect the distribution of anthropometric characteristics, which are incorporated into the design of equipment and clothing for the US Army and other large organizations. The purpose of this study was to examine multivariate craniofacial anthropometric distributions between biologically admixed male populations and single racial groups of Black and White males. Multivariate statistical results suggested that nose breadth and lip length were different between Blacks and Whites. Such differences may be considered for adjustments to respirators and chemical-biological protective masks. However, based on this pilot study, multivariate anthropometric distributions of admixed individuals were within the distributions of single racial groups. Based on the sample reported, sizing and designing for the admixed groups are not necessary if anthropometric distributions of single racial groups comprising admixed groups are known.

Multivariate Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events--an application to biosurveillance.

PubMed

Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

2012-09-01

This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a multivariate Bayesian approach that models multiple evidential features of every person in the population. This approach models and detects (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A contribution of this paper is that it introduces a multivariate Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has general applicability in domains where the space of known causes is incomplete. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Measurement Instrument Criterion Validity in Finite Mixture Settings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.; Li, Tenglong

2016-01-01

A method for evaluating the validity of multicomponent measurement instruments in heterogeneous populations is discussed. The procedure can be used for point and interval estimation of criterion validity of linear composites in populations representing mixtures of an unknown number of latent classes. The approach permits also the evaluation of…

The Cornucopian Fallacies: The Myth of Perpetual Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, Lindsey

1983-01-01

Julian Simon and Herman Kahn argue that population growth is good, not bad; they ignore or dismiss critical environmental issues. Fallacies in their arguments about predicting the future from the past, climate change, population growth, air quality, resource expansion, the finite earth, and technological growth are examined. (SR)

Phase Transition for the Maki-Thompson Rumour Model on a Small-World Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Pachon, Angelica; Rodriguez, Pablo M.; Tavani, Flavia

2017-11-01

We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. In this model the population is made up of "spreaders", "ignorants" and "stiflers"; any spreader attempts to pass the rumour to the other individuals via pair-wise interactions and in case the other individual is an ignorant, it becomes a spreader, while in the other two cases the initiating spreader turns into a stifler. In a finite population the process will eventually reach an equilibrium situation where individuals are either stiflers or ignorants. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model, in such a way that interactions occur only between nearest-neighbours. This structure is realized starting from a k-regular ring and by inserting, in the average, c additional links in such a way that k and c are tuneable parameters for the population architecture. We prove that this system exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation (where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population size) at a finite value of the network parameter c. A quantitative estimate for the critical value of c is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.

Evolution of cooperation in a finite homogeneous graph.

PubMed

Taylor, Peter D; Day, Troy; Wild, Geoff

2007-05-24

Recent theoretical studies of selection in finite structured populations have worked with one of two measures of selective advantage of an allele: fixation probability and inclusive fitness. Each approach has its own analytical strengths, but given certain assumptions they provide equivalent results. In most instances the structure of the population can be specified by a network of nodes connected by edges (that is, a graph), and much of the work here has focused on a continuous-time model of evolution, first described by ref. 11. Working in this context, we provide an inclusive fitness analysis to derive a surprisingly simple analytical condition for the selective advantage of a cooperative allele in any graph for which the structure satisfies a general symmetry condition ('bi-transitivity'). Our results hold for a broad class of population structures, including most of those analysed previously, as well as some for which a direct calculation of fixation probability has appeared intractable. Notably, under some forms of population regulation, the ability of a cooperative allele to invade is seen to be independent of the nature of population structure (and in particular of how game partnerships are specified) and is identical to that for an unstructured population. For other types of population regulation our results reveal that cooperation can invade if players choose partners along relatively 'high-weight' edges.

Gustave Malecot and the Transition from Classical to Modern Population Genetics

PubMed Central

NAGYLAKI, T.

1989-01-01

The contributions of Gustave Malecot to theoretical population genetics are described, discussed, and put into perspective relative to earlier and later work. In this context, certain aspects of the theory of inbreeding, the correlation between relatives, the evolution of finite panmictic populations, and (in more depth) spatial variation are reviewed. A brief biographical sketch of Malecot is also presented. PMID:2670664

Ordinary chondrites - Multivariate statistical analysis of trace element contents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipschutz, Michael E.; Samuels, Stephen M.

1991-01-01

The contents of mobile trace elements (Co, Au, Sb, Ga, Se, Rb, Cs, Te, Bi, Ag, In, Tl, Zn, and Cd) in Antarctic and non-Antarctic populations of H4-6 and L4-6 chondrites, were compared using standard multivariate discriminant functions borrowed from linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression. A nonstandard randomization-simulation method was developed, making it possible to carry out probability assignments on a distribution-free basis. Compositional differences were found both between the Antarctic and non-Antarctic H4-6 chondrite populations and between two L4-6 chondrite populations. It is shown that, for various types of meteorites (in particular, for the H4-6 chondrites), the Antarctic/non-Antarctic compositional difference is due to preterrestrial differences in the genesis of their parent materials.

Detecting synchronization clusters in multivariate time series via coarse-graining of Markov chains.

PubMed

Allefeld, Carsten; Bialonski, Stephan

2007-12-01

Synchronization cluster analysis is an approach to the detection of underlying structures in data sets of multivariate time series, starting from a matrix R of bivariate synchronization indices. A previous method utilized the eigenvectors of R for cluster identification, analogous to several recent attempts at group identification using eigenvectors of the correlation matrix. All of these approaches assumed a one-to-one correspondence of dominant eigenvectors and clusters, which has however been shown to be wrong in important cases. We clarify the usefulness of eigenvalue decomposition for synchronization cluster analysis by translating the problem into the language of stochastic processes, and derive an enhanced clustering method harnessing recent insights from the coarse-graining of finite-state Markov processes. We illustrate the operation of our method using a simulated system of coupled Lorenz oscillators, and we demonstrate its superior performance over the previous approach. Finally we investigate the question of robustness of the algorithm against small sample size, which is important with regard to field applications.

Adult males with haemophilia have a different macrovascular and microvascular endothelial function profile compared with healthy controls.

PubMed

Sun, H; Yang, M; Fung, M; Chan, S; Jawi, M; Anderson, T; Poon, M-C; Jackson, S

2017-09-01

Endothelial function has been identified as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk in the general population. It is unclear if the haemophilia population has a different endothelial function profile compared to the healthy population. This prospective study aims to assess if there is a difference in endothelial function between haemophilia patients and healthy controls, and the impact of endothelial function on vascular outcomes in the haemophilia population. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors and endothelial function were presented. Adult males with haemophilia A or B recruited from the British Columbia and Southern Alberta haemophilia treatment centres were matched to healthy male controls by age and cardiovascular risk factors. Macrovascular endothelial function was assessed by brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and nitroglycerin-mediated dilation (NMD), and microvascular endothelial function was assessed by hyperaemic velocity time integral (VTI). Multivariable linear regression was used to assess the association between haemophilia and endothelial function. A total of 81 patients with haemophilia and 243 controls were included. Patients with haemophilia had a similar FMD and NMD compared to controls, although haemophilia was associated with higher FMD on multivariable analysis. Haemophilia was associated with significantly lower VTI on univariate and multivariable analyses, regardless of haemophilia type and severity. Adult males with haemophilia appear to have lower microvascular endothelial function compared to healthy controls. Future studies to assess the impact of endothelial dysfunction on cardiovascular events in the haemophilia population are needed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A bispectral q-hypergeometric basis for a class of quantum integrable models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baseilhac, Pascal; Martin, Xavier

2018-01-01

For the class of quantum integrable models generated from the q-Onsager algebra, a basis of bispectral multivariable q-orthogonal polynomials is exhibited. In the first part, it is shown that the multivariable Askey-Wilson polynomials with N variables and N + 3 parameters introduced by Gasper and Rahman [Dev. Math. 13, 209 (2005)] generate a family of infinite dimensional modules for the q-Onsager algebra, whose fundamental generators are realized in terms of the multivariable q-difference and difference operators proposed by Iliev [Trans. Am. Math. Soc. 363, 1577 (2011)]. Raising and lowering operators extending those of Sahi [SIGMA 3, 002 (2007)] are also constructed. In the second part, finite dimensional modules are constructed and studied for a certain class of parameters and if the N variables belong to a discrete support. In this case, the bispectral property finds a natural interpretation within the framework of tridiagonal pairs. In the third part, eigenfunctions of the q-Dolan-Grady hierarchy are considered in the polynomial basis. In particular, invariant subspaces are identified for certain conditions generalizing Nepomechie's relations. In the fourth part, the analysis is extended to the special case q = 1. This framework provides a q-hypergeometric formulation of quantum integrable models such as the open XXZ spin chain with generic integrable boundary conditions (q ≠ 1).

The Applications of Finite Element Analysis in Proximal Humeral Fractures.

PubMed

Ye, Yongyu; You, Wei; Zhu, Weimin; Cui, Jiaming; Chen, Kang; Wang, Daping

2017-01-01

Proximal humeral fractures are common and most challenging, due to the complexity of the glenohumeral joint, especially in the geriatric population with impacted fractures, that the development of implants continues because currently the problems with their fixation are not solved. Pre-, intra-, and postoperative assessments are crucial in management of those patients. Finite element analysis, as one of the valuable tools, has been implemented as an effective and noninvasive method to analyze proximal humeral fractures, providing solid evidence for management of troublesome patients. However, no review article about the applications and effects of finite element analysis in assessing proximal humeral fractures has been reported yet. This review article summarized the applications, contribution, and clinical significance of finite element analysis in assessing proximal humeral fractures. Furthermore, the limitations of finite element analysis, the difficulties of more realistic simulation, and the validation and also the creation of validated FE models were discussed. We concluded that although some advancements in proximal humeral fractures researches have been made by using finite element analysis, utility of this powerful tool for routine clinical management and adequate simulation requires more state-of-the-art studies to provide evidence and bases.

Linear dimension reduction and Bayes classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decell, H. P., Jr.; Odell, P. L.; Coberly, W. A.

1978-01-01

An explicit expression for a compression matrix T of smallest possible left dimension K consistent with preserving the n variate normal Bayes assignment of X to a given one of a finite number of populations and the K variate Bayes assignment of TX to that population was developed. The Bayes population assignment of X and TX were shown to be equivalent for a compression matrix T explicitly calculated as a function of the means and covariances of the given populations.

On Some Multiple Decision Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-08-01

parameter space. Some recent results in the area of subset selection formulation are Gnanadesikan and Gupta [28], Gupta and Studden [43], Gupta and...York, pp. 363-376. [27) Gnanadesikan , M. (1966). Some Selection and Ranking Procedures for Multivariate Normal Populations. Ph.D. Thesis. Dept. of...Statist., Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, Indiana 47907. [28) Gnanadesikan , M. and Gupta, S. S. (1970). Selection procedures for multivariate normal

Validation of cross-sectional time series and multivariate adaptive regression splines models for the prediction of energy expenditure in children and adolescents using doubly labeled water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate, nonintrusive, and inexpensive techniques are needed to measure energy expenditure (EE) in free-living populations. Our primary aim in this study was to validate cross-sectional time series (CSTS) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models based on observable participant cha...

Particle Size Distributions in Atmospheric Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paoli, Roberto; Shariff, Karim

2003-01-01

In this note, we derive a transport equation for a spatially integrated distribution function of particles size that is suitable for sparse particle systems, such as in atmospheric clouds. This is done by integrating a Boltzmann equation for a (local) distribution function over an arbitrary but finite volume. A methodology for evolving the moments of the integrated distribution is presented. These moments can be either tracked for a finite number of discrete populations ('clusters') or treated as continuum variables.

Identifying pleiotropic genes in genome-wide association studies from related subjects using the linear mixed model and Fisher combination function.

PubMed

Yang, James J; Williams, L Keoki; Buu, Anne

2017-08-24

A multivariate genome-wide association test is proposed for analyzing data on multivariate quantitative phenotypes collected from related subjects. The proposed method is a two-step approach. The first step models the association between the genotype and marginal phenotype using a linear mixed model. The second step uses the correlation between residuals of the linear mixed model to estimate the null distribution of the Fisher combination test statistic. The simulation results show that the proposed method controls the type I error rate and is more powerful than the marginal tests across different population structures (admixed or non-admixed) and relatedness (related or independent). The statistical analysis on the database of the Study of Addiction: Genetics and Environment (SAGE) demonstrates that applying the multivariate association test may facilitate identification of the pleiotropic genes contributing to the risk for alcohol dependence commonly expressed by four correlated phenotypes. This study proposes a multivariate method for identifying pleiotropic genes while adjusting for cryptic relatedness and population structure between subjects. The two-step approach is not only powerful but also computationally efficient even when the number of subjects and the number of phenotypes are both very large.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-01

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process.

PubMed

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-27

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

An alternative view of continuous forest inventories

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2008-01-01

A generalized three-dimensional concept of continuous forest inventories applicable to all common forest sample designs is presented and discussed. The concept recognizes the forest through time as a three-dimensional population, two dimensions in land area and the third in time. The sample is selected from a finite three-dimensional partitioning of the population. The...

Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

2013-03-01

Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

Effects of Genetic Drift and Gene Flow on the Selective Maintenance of Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Star, Bastiaan; Spencer, Hamish G.

2013-01-01

Explanations for the genetic variation ubiquitous in natural populations are often classified by the population–genetic processes they emphasize: natural selection or mutation and genetic drift. Here we investigate models that incorporate all three processes in a spatially structured population, using what we call a construction approach, simulating finite populations under selection that are bombarded with a steady stream of novel mutations. As expected, the amount of genetic variation compared to previous models that ignored the stochastic effects of drift was reduced, especially for smaller populations and when spatial structure was most profound. By contrast, however, for higher levels of gene flow and larger population sizes, the amount of genetic variation found after many generations was greater than that in simulations without drift. This increased amount of genetic variation is due to the introduction of slightly deleterious alleles by genetic drift and this process is more efficient when migration load is higher. The incorporation of genetic drift also selects for fitness sets that exhibit allele-frequency equilibria with larger domains of attraction: they are “more stable.” Moreover, the finiteness of populations strongly influences levels of local adaptation, selection strength, and the proportion of allele-frequency vectors that can be distinguished from the neutral expectation. PMID:23457235

Automated rapid finite fault inversion for megathrust earthquakes: Application to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) great earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, Roberto; Cummins, Phil; Dettmer, Jan

2016-04-01

Rapid estimation of the spatial and temporal rupture characteristics of large megathrust earthquakes by finite fault inversion is important for disaster mitigation. For example, estimates of the spatio-temporal evolution of rupture can be used to evaluate population exposure to tsunami waves and ground shaking soon after the event by providing more accurate predictions than possible with point source approximations. In addition, rapid inversion results can reveal seismic source complexity to guide additional, more detailed subsequent studies. This work develops a method to rapidly estimate the slip distribution of megathrust events while reducing subjective parameter choices by automation. The method is simple yet robust and we show that it provides excellent preliminary rupture models as soon as 30 minutes for three great earthquakes in the South-American subduction zone. This may slightly change for other regions depending on seismic station coverage but method can be applied to any subduction region. The inversion is based on W-phase data since it is rapidly and widely available and of low amplitude which avoids clipping at close stations for large events. In addition, prior knowledge of the slab geometry (e.g. SLAB 1.0) is applied and rapid W-phase point source information (time delay and centroid location) is used to constrain the fault geometry and extent. Since the linearization by multiple time window (MTW) parametrization requires regularization, objective smoothing is achieved by the discrepancy principle in two fully automated steps. First, the residuals are estimated assuming unknown noise levels, and second, seeking a subsequent solution which fits the data to noise level. The MTW scheme is applied with positivity constraints and a solution is obtained by an efficient non-negative least squares solver. Systematic application of the algorithm to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) events illustrates that rapid finite fault inversion with teleseismic data is feasible and provides meaningful results. The results for the three events show excellent data fits and are consistent with other solutions showing most of the slip occurring close to the trench for the Maule an Illapel events and some deeper slip for the Iquique event. Importantly, the Illapel source model predicts tsunami waveforms of close agreement with observed waveforms. Finally, we develop a new Bayesian approach to approximate uncertainties as part of the rapid inversion scheme with positivity constraints. Uncertainties are estimated by approximating the posterior distribution as a multivariate log-normal distribution. While solving for the posterior adds some additional computational cost, we illustrate that uncertainty estimation is important for meaningful interpretation of finite fault models.

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Exact Solution of Mutator Model with Linear Fitness and Finite Genome Length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saakian, David B.

2017-08-01

We considered the infinite population version of the mutator phenomenon in evolutionary dynamics, looking at the uni-directional mutations in the mutator-specific genes and linear selection. We solved exactly the model for the finite genome length case, looking at the quasispecies version of the phenomenon. We calculated the mutator probability both in the statics and dynamics. The exact solution is important for us because the mutator probability depends on the genome length in a highly non-trivial way.

Ophthalmology Residency Match outcomes for 2011.

PubMed

Yousuf, Salman J; Jones, Leslie S

2012-03-01

To determine the match rate and predictors of matching into an ophthalmology residency. Population-based, cross-sectional study. All 746 candidates who submitted an application for the 2011 ophthalmology residency match. The Ophthalmology Residency Matching Program applicant database was reviewed to determine applicant characteristics and match outcomes. For US seniors, multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine predictors of matching. Match rate and predictors of US seniors matching. Rank lists were submitted by 622 applicants, among whom 458 (74%) matched. The match rate was higher for US seniors (83%) than for independent applicants (41%; P < 0.001). US seniors who matched were more likely to be Alpha Omega Alpha medical honor society members (odds ratio [OR], 2.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-7.29), to attend medical schools ranked in the top 40 according to National Institutes of Health funding (OR, 2.25; CI, 1.14-4.43), and to have ranked more programs (OR, 1.44; CI, 1.29-1.60). Those ranking 6 to 10 programs had an 80% to 90% chance of matching, and those ranking more than 10 programs had a greater than 90% chance of matching. No clear benefit was observed by ranking additional programs once 11 had already been ranked. Average US Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 scores were 239 ± 14 and 223 ± 18 for applicants who were matched and unmatched, respectively; this difference was significant by univariate analysis (P < 0.001) but not by multivariate regression (P = 0.163). Ophthalmology ranks among the most competitive specialties in medicine. Those most likely to match were US seniors who maintained academic excellence beginning in their preclinical years. A finite relationship exists between ranking a greater number of programs and having a greater chance of matching. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of hydrology and waterway distance on population structure of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in a large river.

PubMed

Olsen, J B; Beacham, T D; Wetklo, M; Seeb, L W; Smith, C T; Flannery, B G; Wenburg, J K

2010-04-01

Adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha navigate in river systems using olfactory cues that may be influenced by hydrologic factors such as flow and the number, size and spatial distribution of tributaries. Thus, river hydrology may influence both homing success and the level of straying (gene flow), which in turn influences population structure. In this study, two methods of multivariate analysis were used to examine the extent to which four indicators of hydrology and waterway distance explained population structure of O. tshawytscha in the Yukon River. A partial Mantel test showed that the indicators of hydrology were positively associated with broad-scale (Yukon basin) population structure, when controlling for the influence of waterway distance. Multivariate multiple regression showed that waterway distance, supplemented with the number and flow of major drainage basins, explained more variation in broad-scale population structure than any single indicator. At an intermediate spatial scale, indicators of hydrology did not appear to influence population structure after accounting for waterway distance. These results suggest that habitat changes in the Yukon River, which alter hydrology, may influence the basin-wide pattern of population structure in O. tshawytscha. Further research is warranted on the role of hydrology in concert with waterway distance in influencing population structure in Pacific salmon.

Wave of chaos in a spatial eco-epidemiological system: Generating realistic patterns of patchiness in rabbit-lynx dynamics.

PubMed

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita; Venkataraman, C; Madzvamuse, A

2016-11-01

In the present paper, we propose and analyze an eco-epidemiological model with diffusion to study the dynamics of rabbit populations which are consumed by lynx populations. Existence, boundedness, stability and bifurcation analyses of solutions for the proposed rabbit-lynx model are performed. Results show that in the presence of diffusion the model has the potential of exhibiting Turing instability. Numerical results (finite difference and finite element methods) reveal the existence of the wave of chaos and this appears to be a dominant mode of disease dispersal. We also show the mechanism of spatiotemporal pattern formation resulting from the Hopf bifurcation analysis, which can be a potential candidate for understanding the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of eco-epidemiological systems. Implications of the asymptotic transmission rate on disease eradication among rabbit population which in turn enhances the survival of Iberian lynx are discussed. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MARKOV: A methodology for the solution of infinite time horizon MARKOV decision processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

1988-01-01

Algorithms are described for determining optimal policies for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Both value-improvement and policy-improvement techniques are used in the algorithms. Computing procedures are also described. The algorithms are appropriate for processes that are either finite or infinite, deterministic or stochastic, discounted or undiscounted, in any meaningful combination of these features. Computing procedures are described in terms of initial data processing, bound improvements, process reduction, and testing and solution. Application of the methodology is illustrated with an example involving natural resource management. Management implications of certain hypothesized relationships between mallard survival and harvest rates are addressed by applying the optimality procedures to mallard population models.

Shape variation in the human pelvis and limb skeleton: Implications for obstetric adaptation.

PubMed

Kurki, Helen K; Decrausaz, Sarah-Louise

2016-04-01

Under the obstetrical dilemma (OD) hypothesis, selection acts on the human female pelvis to ensure a sufficiently sized obstetric canal for birthing a large-brained, broad shouldered neonate, while bipedal locomotion selects for a narrower and smaller pelvis. Despite this female-specific stabilizing selection, variability of linear dimensions of the pelvic canal and overall size are not reduced in females, suggesting shape may instead be variable among females of a population. Female canal shape has been shown to vary among populations, while male canal shape does not. Within this context, we examine within-population canal shape variation in comparison with that of noncanal aspects of the pelvis and the limbs. Nine skeletal samples (total female n = 101, male n = 117) representing diverse body sizes and shapes were included. Principal components analysis was applied to size-adjusted variables of each skeletal region. A multivariate variance was calculated using the weighted PC scores for all components in each model and F-ratios used to assess differences in within-population variances between sexes and skeletal regions. Within both sexes, multivariate canal shape variance is significantly greater than noncanal pelvis and limb variances, while limb variance is greater than noncanal pelvis variance in some populations. Multivariate shape variation is not consistently different between the sexes in any of the skeletal regions. Diverse selective pressures, including obstetrics, locomotion, load carrying, and others may act on canal shape, as well as genetic drift and plasticity, thus increasing variation in morphospace while protecting obstetric sufficiency. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of population mean in the presence of measurement error and non response under stratified random sampling

PubMed Central

Shabbir, Javid

2018-01-01

In the present paper we propose an improved class of estimators in the presence of measurement error and non-response under stratified random sampling for estimating the finite population mean. The theoretical and numerical studies reveal that the proposed class of estimators performs better than other existing estimators. PMID:29401519

Joint modeling and registration of cell populations in cohorts of high-dimensional flow cytometric data.

PubMed

Pyne, Saumyadipta; Lee, Sharon X; Wang, Kui; Irish, Jonathan; Tamayo, Pablo; Nazaire, Marc-Danie; Duong, Tarn; Ng, Shu-Kay; Hafler, David; Levy, Ronald; Nolan, Garry P; Mesirov, Jill; McLachlan, Geoffrey J

2014-01-01

In biomedical applications, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multivariate responses of a panel of markers such as from a signaling network. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While computational methods can identify cell populations in individual samples, without the ability to automatically match them across samples, it is difficult to compare and characterize the populations in typical experiments, such as those responding to various stimulations or distinctive of particular patients or time-points, especially when there are many samples. Joint Clustering and Matching (JCM) is a multi-level framework for simultaneous modeling and registration of populations across a cohort. JCM models every population with a robust multivariate probability distribution. Simultaneously, JCM fits a random-effects model to construct an overall batch template--used for registering populations across samples, and classifying new samples. By tackling systems-level variation, JCM supports practical biomedical applications involving large cohorts. Software for fitting the JCM models have been implemented in an R package EMMIX-JCM, available from http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/mix_soft/EMMIX-JCM/.

Independent Correlates of Reported Gambling Problems amongst Indigenous Australians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Matthew; Young, Martin

2010-01-01

To identify independent correlates of reported gambling problems amongst the Indigenous population of Australia. A cross-sectional design was applied to a nationally representative sample of the Indigenous population. Estimates of reported gambling problems are presented by remoteness and jurisdiction. Multivariable logistic regression was used to…

Social network types among older Korean adults: Associations with subjective health.

PubMed

Sohn, Sung Yun; Joo, Won-Tak; Kim, Woo Jung; Kim, Se Joo; Youm, Yoosik; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Park, Yeong-Ran; Lee, Eun

2017-01-01

With population aging now a global phenomenon, the health of older adults is becoming an increasingly important issue. Because the Korean population is aging at an unprecedented rate, preparing for public health problems associated with old age is particularly salient in this country. As the physical and mental health of older adults is related to their social relationships, investigating the social networks of older adults and their relationship to health status is important for establishing public health policies. The aims of this study were to identify social network types among older adults in South Korea and to examine the relationship of these social network types with self-rated health and depression. Data from the Korean Social Life, Health, and Aging Project were analyzed. Model-based clustering using finite normal mixture modeling was conducted to identify the social network types based on ten criterion variables of social relationships and activities: marital status, number of children, number of close relatives, number of friends, frequency of attendance at religious services, attendance at organized group meetings, in-degree centrality, out-degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality. Multivariate regression analysis was conducted to examine associations between the identified social network types and self-rated health and depression. The model-based clustering analysis revealed that social networks clustered into five types: diverse, family, congregant, congregant-restricted, and restricted. Diverse or family social network types were significantly associated with more favorable subjective mental health, whereas the restricted network type was significantly associated with poorer ratings of mental and physical health. In addition, our analysis identified unique social network types related to religious activities. In summary, we developed a comprehensive social network typology for older Korean adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Li

In this dissertation, we investigate the generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data that can flexibly model three types of covariate effects: time-constant effects, time-varying effects, and covariate-varying effects, i.e., the covariate effects that depend on other possibly time-dependent exposure variables. First, we consider the model that assumes the time-varying effects are unspecified functions of time while the covariate-varying effects are parametric functions of an exposure variable specified up to a finite number of unknown parameters. The estimation procedures are developed using multivariate local linear smoothing and generalized weighted least squares estimation techniques. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. The simulation studies show that the proposed methods have satisfactory finite sample performance. ACTG 244 clinical trial of HIV infected patients are applied to examine the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching before and after HIV developing the 215-mutation. Our analysis shows benefit of treatment switching before developing the 215-mutation. The proposed methods are also applied to the STEP study with MITT cases showing that they have broad applications in medical research.

Design of an essentially non-oscillatory reconstruction procedure on finite-element type meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abgrall, R.

1991-01-01

An essentially non-oscillatory reconstruction for functions defined on finite-element type meshes was designed. Two related problems are studied: the interpolation of possibly unsmooth multivariate functions on arbitrary meshes and the reconstruction of a function from its average in the control volumes surrounding the nodes of the mesh. Concerning the first problem, we have studied the behavior of the highest coefficients of the Lagrange interpolation function which may admit discontinuities of locally regular curves. This enables us to choose the best stencil for the interpolation. The choice of the smallest possible number of stencils is addressed. Concerning the reconstruction problem, because of the very nature of the mesh, the only method that may work is the so called reconstruction via deconvolution method. Unfortunately, it is well suited only for regular meshes as we show, but we also show how to overcome this difficulty. The global method has the expected order of accuracy but is conservative up to a high order quadrature formula only. Some numerical examples are given which demonstrate the efficiency of the method.

Modeling of the WSTF frictional heating apparatus in high pressure systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skowlund, Christopher T.

1992-01-01

In order to develop a computer program able to model the frictional heating of metals in high pressure oxygen or nitrogen a number of additions have been made to the frictional heating model originally developed for tests in low pressure helium. These additions include: (1) a physical property package for the gases to account for departures from the ideal gas state; (2) two methods for spatial discretization (finite differences with quadratic interpolation or orthogonal collocation on finite elements) which substantially reduce the computer time required to solve the transient heat balance; (3) more efficient programs for the integration of the ordinary differential equations resulting from the discretization of the partial differential equations; and (4) two methods for determining the best-fit parameters via minimization of the mean square error (either a direct search multivariable simplex method or a modified Levenburg-Marquardt algorithm). The resulting computer program has been shown to be accurate, efficient and robust for determining the heat flux or friction coefficient vs. time at the interface of the stationary and rotating samples.

Vibration attenuation of the NASA Langley evolutionary structure experiment using H(sub infinity) and structured singular value (micron) robust multivariable control techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balas, Gary J.

1992-01-01

The use is studied of active control to attenuate structural vibrations of the NASA Langley Phase Zero Evolutionary Structure due to external disturbance excitations. H sub infinity and structured singular value (mu) based control techniques are used to analyze and synthesize control laws for the NASA Langley Controls Structures Interaction (CSI) Evolutionary Model (CEM). The CEM structure experiment provides an excellent test bed to address control design issues for large space structures. Specifically, control design for structures with numerous lightly damped, coupled flexible modes, collocated and noncollocated sensors and actuators and stringent performance specifications. The performance objectives are to attenuate the vibration of the structure due to external disturbances, and minimize the actuator control force. The control design problem formulation for the CEM Structure uses a mathematical model developed with finite element techniques. A reduced order state space model for the control design is formulated from the finite element model. It is noted that there are significant variations between the design model and the experimentally derived transfer function data.

Multivariate approach to quantitative analysis of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae) and their natural enemy populations at different cotton spacings.

PubMed

Malaquias, José B; Ramalho, Francisco S; Dos S Dias, Carlos T; Brugger, Bruno P; S Lira, Aline Cristina; Wilcken, Carlos F; Pachú, Jéssica K S; Zanuncio, José C

2017-02-09

The relationship between pests and natural enemies using multivariate analysis on cotton in different spacing has not been documented yet. Using multivariate approaches is possible to optimize strategies to control Aphis gossypii at different crop spacings because the possibility of a better use of the aphid sampling strategies as well as the conservation and release of its natural enemies. The aims of the study were (i) to characterize the temporal abundance data of aphids and its natural enemies using principal components, (ii) to analyze the degree of correlation between the insects and between groups of variables (pests and natural enemies), (iii) to identify the main natural enemies responsible for regulating A. gossypii populations, and (iv) to investigate the similarities in arthropod occurrence patterns at different spacings of cotton crops over two seasons. High correlations in the occurrence of Scymnus rubicundus with aphids are shown through principal component analysis and through the important role the species plays in canonical correlation analysis. Clustering the presence of apterous aphids matches the pattern verified for Chrysoperla externa at the three different spacings between rows. Our results indicate that S. rubicundus is the main candidate to regulate the aphid populations in all spacings studied.

Multivariate approach to quantitative analysis of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae) and their natural enemy populations at different cotton spacings

PubMed Central

Malaquias, José B.; Ramalho, Francisco S.; dos S. Dias, Carlos T.; Brugger, Bruno P.; S. Lira, Aline Cristina; Wilcken, Carlos F.; Pachú, Jéssica K. S.; Zanuncio, José C.

2017-01-01

The relationship between pests and natural enemies using multivariate analysis on cotton in different spacing has not been documented yet. Using multivariate approaches is possible to optimize strategies to control Aphis gossypii at different crop spacings because the possibility of a better use of the aphid sampling strategies as well as the conservation and release of its natural enemies. The aims of the study were (i) to characterize the temporal abundance data of aphids and its natural enemies using principal components, (ii) to analyze the degree of correlation between the insects and between groups of variables (pests and natural enemies), (iii) to identify the main natural enemies responsible for regulating A. gossypii populations, and (iv) to investigate the similarities in arthropod occurrence patterns at different spacings of cotton crops over two seasons. High correlations in the occurrence of Scymnus rubicundus with aphids are shown through principal component analysis and through the important role the species plays in canonical correlation analysis. Clustering the presence of apterous aphids matches the pattern verified for Chrysoperla externa at the three different spacings between rows. Our results indicate that S. rubicundus is the main candidate to regulate the aphid populations in all spacings studied. PMID:28181503

Multivariate approach to quantitative analysis of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae) and their natural enemy populations at different cotton spacings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malaquias, José B.; Ramalho, Francisco S.; Dos S. Dias, Carlos T.; Brugger, Bruno P.; S. Lira, Aline Cristina; Wilcken, Carlos F.; Pachú, Jéssica K. S.; Zanuncio, José C.

2017-02-01

The relationship between pests and natural enemies using multivariate analysis on cotton in different spacing has not been documented yet. Using multivariate approaches is possible to optimize strategies to control Aphis gossypii at different crop spacings because the possibility of a better use of the aphid sampling strategies as well as the conservation and release of its natural enemies. The aims of the study were (i) to characterize the temporal abundance data of aphids and its natural enemies using principal components, (ii) to analyze the degree of correlation between the insects and between groups of variables (pests and natural enemies), (iii) to identify the main natural enemies responsible for regulating A. gossypii populations, and (iv) to investigate the similarities in arthropod occurrence patterns at different spacings of cotton crops over two seasons. High correlations in the occurrence of Scymnus rubicundus with aphids are shown through principal component analysis and through the important role the species plays in canonical correlation analysis. Clustering the presence of apterous aphids matches the pattern verified for Chrysoperla externa at the three different spacings between rows. Our results indicate that S. rubicundus is the main candidate to regulate the aphid populations in all spacings studied.

Domestication and fitness in the wild: A multivariate view.

PubMed

Tufto, Jarle

2017-09-01

Domesticated species continually escaping and interbreeding with wild relatives impose a migration load on wild populations. As domesticated stocks become increasingly different as a result of artificial and natural selection in captivity, fitness of escapees in the wild is expected to decline, reducing the effective rate of migration into wild populations. Recent theory suggest that this may alleviate and eventually eliminate the resulting migration load. I develop a multivariate model of trait and wild fitness evolution resulting from the joint effects of artificial and natural selection in the captive environment. Initially, the evolutionary trajectory is dominated by the effects of artificial selection causing a fast initial decline in fitness of escapees in the wild. In later phases, through the counteracting effects of correlational multivariate natural selection in captivity, the mean phenotype is pushed in directions of weak stabilizing selection, allowing a sustained response in the trait subject to artificial selection. Provided that there is some alignment between the adaptive landscapes in the wild and in captivity, these phases are associated with slower rates of decline in wild fitness of the domesticated stock, suggesting that detrimental effects on wild populations are likely to remain a concern in the foreseeable future. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors in Ghana.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-05-01

The fundamental goal of the Government of Ghana's development agenda as enshrined in the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy to grow the economy to a middle income status of US$1000 per capita by the end of 2015 could be met by increasing the labour force, increasing energy supplies and expanding the energy infrastructure in order to achieve the sustainable development targets. In this study, a multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors namely carbon dioxide, total primary energy consumption, population and GDP was investigated in Ghana using vector error correction model with data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our research results show an existence of long-run causality running from population, GDP and total primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. However, there is evidence of short-run causality running from population to carbon dioxide emissions. There was a bi-directional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy consumption and vice versa. In other words, decreasing the primary energy consumption in Ghana will directly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, a bi-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption and vice versa exists in the multivariate model. It is plausible that access to energy has a relationship with increasing economic growth and productivity in Ghana.

Association between Dietary Vitamin C Intake and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study among Middle-Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Wei, Jie; Lei, Guang-hua; Fu, Lei; Zeng, Chao; Yang, Tuo; Peng, Shi-fang

2016-01-01

Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become one of the most prevalent chronic liver disease all over the world. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD. Method Subjects were diagnosed with NAFLD by abdominal ultrasound examination and the consumption of alcohol was less than 40g/day for men or less than 20g/day for women. Vitamin C intake was classified into four categories according to the quartile distribution in the study population: ≤74.80 mg/day, 74.81–110.15 mg/day, 110.16–146.06 mg/day, and ≥146.07 mg/day. The energy and multi-variable adjusted odds ratio (OR), as well as their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), were used to determine the relationship between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD through logistic regression. Result The present cross-sectional study included 3471 subjects. A significant inverse association between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD was observed in the energy-adjusted and the multivariable model. The multivariable adjusted ORs (95%CI) for NAFLD were 0.69 (95%CI: 0.54–0.89), 0.93 (95%CI: 0.72–1.20), and 0.71 (95%CI: 0.53–0.95) in the second, third and fourth dietary vitamin C intake quartiles, respectively, compared with the lowest (first) quartile. The relative odds of NAFLD was decreased by 0.71 times in the fourth quartile of dietary vitamin C intake compared with the lowest quartile. After stratifying data by sex or the status of obesity, the inverse association remained valid in the male population or non-obesity population, but not in the female population or obesity population. Conclusion There might be a moderate inverse association between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD in middle-aged and older adults, especially for the male population and non-obesity population. PMID:26824361

Association between Dietary Vitamin C Intake and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study among Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Wei, Jie; Lei, Guang-Hua; Fu, Lei; Zeng, Chao; Yang, Tuo; Peng, Shi-Fang

2016-01-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become one of the most prevalent chronic liver disease all over the world. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD. Subjects were diagnosed with NAFLD by abdominal ultrasound examination and the consumption of alcohol was less than 40g/day for men or less than 20g/day for women. Vitamin C intake was classified into four categories according to the quartile distribution in the study population: ≤74.80 mg/day, 74.81-110.15 mg/day, 110.16-146.06 mg/day, and ≥146.07 mg/day. The energy and multi-variable adjusted odds ratio (OR), as well as their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), were used to determine the relationship between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD through logistic regression. The present cross-sectional study included 3471 subjects. A significant inverse association between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD was observed in the energy-adjusted and the multivariable model. The multivariable adjusted ORs (95%CI) for NAFLD were 0.69 (95%CI: 0.54-0.89), 0.93 (95%CI: 0.72-1.20), and 0.71 (95%CI: 0.53-0.95) in the second, third and fourth dietary vitamin C intake quartiles, respectively, compared with the lowest (first) quartile. The relative odds of NAFLD was decreased by 0.71 times in the fourth quartile of dietary vitamin C intake compared with the lowest quartile. After stratifying data by sex or the status of obesity, the inverse association remained valid in the male population or non-obesity population, but not in the female population or obesity population. There might be a moderate inverse association between dietary vitamin C intake and NAFLD in middle-aged and older adults, especially for the male population and non-obesity population.

Flexible mixture modeling via the multivariate t distribution with the Box-Cox transformation: an alternative to the skew-t distribution

PubMed Central

Lo, Kenneth

2011-01-01

Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of homogeneous observations in a data set. A popular modeling approach for clustering is based on finite normal mixture models, which assume that each cluster is modeled as a multivariate normal distribution. However, the normality assumption that each component is symmetric is often unrealistic. Furthermore, normal mixture models are not robust against outliers; they often require extra components for modeling outliers and/or give a poor representation of the data. To address these issues, we propose a new class of distributions, multivariate t distributions with the Box-Cox transformation, for mixture modeling. This class of distributions generalizes the normal distribution with the more heavy-tailed t distribution, and introduces skewness via the Box-Cox transformation. As a result, this provides a unified framework to simultaneously handle outlier identification and data transformation, two interrelated issues. We describe an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation along with transformation selection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with three real data sets and simulation studies. Compared with a wealth of approaches including the skew-t mixture model, the proposed t mixture model with the Box-Cox transformation performs favorably in terms of accuracy in the assignment of observations, robustness against model misspecification, and selection of the number of components. PMID:22125375

Flexible mixture modeling via the multivariate t distribution with the Box-Cox transformation: an alternative to the skew-t distribution.

PubMed

Lo, Kenneth; Gottardo, Raphael

2012-01-01

Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of homogeneous observations in a data set. A popular modeling approach for clustering is based on finite normal mixture models, which assume that each cluster is modeled as a multivariate normal distribution. However, the normality assumption that each component is symmetric is often unrealistic. Furthermore, normal mixture models are not robust against outliers; they often require extra components for modeling outliers and/or give a poor representation of the data. To address these issues, we propose a new class of distributions, multivariate t distributions with the Box-Cox transformation, for mixture modeling. This class of distributions generalizes the normal distribution with the more heavy-tailed t distribution, and introduces skewness via the Box-Cox transformation. As a result, this provides a unified framework to simultaneously handle outlier identification and data transformation, two interrelated issues. We describe an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation along with transformation selection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with three real data sets and simulation studies. Compared with a wealth of approaches including the skew-t mixture model, the proposed t mixture model with the Box-Cox transformation performs favorably in terms of accuracy in the assignment of observations, robustness against model misspecification, and selection of the number of components.

A nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations to adjust for complex sampling design features.

PubMed

Dong, Qi; Elliott, Michael R; Raghunathan, Trivellore E

2014-06-01

Outside of the survey sampling literature, samples are often assumed to be generated by a simple random sampling process that produces independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Many statistical methods are developed largely in this IID world. Application of these methods to data from complex sample surveys without making allowance for the survey design features can lead to erroneous inferences. Hence, much time and effort have been devoted to develop the statistical methods to analyze complex survey data and account for the sample design. This issue is particularly important when generating synthetic populations using finite population Bayesian inference, as is often done in missing data or disclosure risk settings, or when combining data from multiple surveys. By extending previous work in finite population Bayesian bootstrap literature, we propose a method to generate synthetic populations from a posterior predictive distribution in a fashion inverts the complex sampling design features and generates simple random samples from a superpopulation point of view, making adjustment on the complex data so that they can be analyzed as simple random samples. We consider a simulation study with a stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample design, and use the proposed nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations for the 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), which are stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample designs.

A nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations to adjust for complex sampling design features

PubMed Central

Dong, Qi; Elliott, Michael R.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.

2017-01-01

Outside of the survey sampling literature, samples are often assumed to be generated by a simple random sampling process that produces independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Many statistical methods are developed largely in this IID world. Application of these methods to data from complex sample surveys without making allowance for the survey design features can lead to erroneous inferences. Hence, much time and effort have been devoted to develop the statistical methods to analyze complex survey data and account for the sample design. This issue is particularly important when generating synthetic populations using finite population Bayesian inference, as is often done in missing data or disclosure risk settings, or when combining data from multiple surveys. By extending previous work in finite population Bayesian bootstrap literature, we propose a method to generate synthetic populations from a posterior predictive distribution in a fashion inverts the complex sampling design features and generates simple random samples from a superpopulation point of view, making adjustment on the complex data so that they can be analyzed as simple random samples. We consider a simulation study with a stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample design, and use the proposed nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations for the 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), which are stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample designs. PMID:29200608

Origin and Diversification Dynamics of Self-Incompatibility Haplotypes

PubMed Central

Gervais, Camille E.; Castric, Vincent; Ressayre, Adrienne; Billiard, Sylvain

2011-01-01

Self-incompatibility (SI) is a genetic system found in some hermaphrodite plants. Recognition of pollen by pistils expressing cognate specificities at two linked genes leads to rejection of self pollen and pollen from close relatives, i.e., to avoidance of self-fertilization and inbred matings, and thus increased outcrossing. These genes generally have many alleles, yet the conditions allowing the evolution of new alleles remain mysterious. Evolutionary changes are clearly necessary in both genes, since any mutation affecting only one of them would result in a nonfunctional self-compatible haplotype. Here, we study diversification at the S-locus (i.e., a stable increase in the total number of SI haplotypes in the population, through the incorporation of new SI haplotypes), both deterministically (by investigating analytically the fate of mutations in an infinite population) and by simulations of finite populations. We show that the conditions allowing diversification are far less stringent in finite populations with recurrent mutations of the pollen and pistil genes, suggesting that diversification is possible in a panmictic population. We find that new SI haplotypes emerge fastest in populations with few SI haplotypes, and we discuss some implications for empirical data on S-alleles. However, allele numbers in our simulations never reach values as high as observed in plants whose SI systems have been studied, and we suggest extensions of our models that may reconcile the theory and data. PMID:21515570

Fixation Times in Deme Structured, Finite Populations with Rare Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauert, Christoph; Chen, Yu-Ting; Imhof, Lorens A.

2014-08-01

Population structure affects both the outcome and the speed of evolutionary dynamics. Here we consider a finite population that is divided into subpopulations called demes. The dynamics within the demes are stochastic and frequency-dependent. Individuals can adopt one of two strategic types, or . The fitness of each individual is determined by interactions with other individuals in the same deme. With small probability, proportional to fitness, individuals migrate to other demes. The outcome of these dynamics has been studied earlier by analyzing the fixation probability of a single mutant in an otherwise homogeneous population. These results give only a partial picture of the dynamics, because the time when fixation occurs can be exceedingly large. In this paper, we study the impact of deme structures on the speed of evolution. We derive analytical approximations of fixation times in the limit of rare migration and rare mutation. In this limit, the conditional fixation time of a single mutant in a population is the same as that of a single in an population. For the prisoner's dilemma game, simulation results fit very well with our analytical predictions and demonstrate that fixation takes place in a moderate amount of time as compared to the expected waiting time until a mutant successfully invades and fixates. The simulations also confirm that the conditional fixation time of a single cooperator is indeed the same as that of a single defector.

Reproductive biology of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) (Diptera: Psychodidae) under experimental conditions.

PubMed

Cárdenas, E; Ferro, C; Corredor, D; Martínez, O; Munstermann, L E

1999-12-01

Baseline biological growth data of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) were compared under two experimental conditions within insulated styrofoam chests and in standard laboratory incubators. The developmental time from egg to adult was 67 and 52 days, respectively. Based on cohorts of 100 females in each experiment, horizontal life tables were constructed. The following predictive parameters were obtained under each of the two conditions: net rate of reproduction (23.5 and 18.0 females per cohort female), generation time (11.4 and 9.4 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.27 and 0.30), and finite rate of population increment (1.31 and 1.36). The reproductive value for each class age of the cohort females was calculated. The observed parameters were obtained under each experimental condition: net rate of reproduction (1.9 and 2.5 females per cohort female), generation time (11.7 and 9.6 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.05 and 0.09), and finite rate of population increment (1.06 and 1.10). Vertical life tables were elaborated and mortality was described for every generation in each cohort. In addition, for two successive generations, additive variance and heritability for fecundity were estimated.

Evolutionary dynamics of public goods games with diverse contributions in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Wu, Bin; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Long

2010-05-01

The public goods game is a powerful metaphor for exploring the maintenance of social cooperative behavior in a group of interactional selfish players. Here we study the emergence of cooperation in the public goods games with diverse contributions in finite populations. The theory of stochastic process is innovatively adopted to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of the public goods games involving a diversity of contributions. In the limit of rare mutations, the general stationary distribution of this stochastic process can be analytically approximated by means of diffusion theory. Moreover, we demonstrate that increasing the diversity of contributions greatly reduces the probability of finding the population in a homogeneous state full of defectors. This increase also raises the expectation of the total contribution in the entire population and thus promotes social cooperation. Furthermore, by investigating the evolutionary dynamics of optional public goods games with diverse contributions, we find that nonparticipation can assist players who contribute more in resisting invasion and taking over individuals who contribute less. In addition, numerical simulations are performed to confirm our analytical results. Our results may provide insight into the effect of diverse contributions on cooperative behaviors in the real world.

A paradox of cumulative culture.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

2015-08-21

Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lp-stability (1 less than or equal to p less than or equal to infinity) of multivariable nonlinear time-varying feedback systems that are open-loop unstable. [noting unstable convolution subsystem forward control and time varying nonlinear feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callier, F. M.; Desoer, C. A.

1973-01-01

A class of multivariable, nonlinear time-varying feedback systems with an unstable convolution subsystem as feedforward and a time-varying nonlinear gain as feedback was considered. The impulse response of the convolution subsystem is the sum of a finite number of increasing exponentials multiplied by nonnegative powers of the time t, a term that is absolutely integrable and an infinite series of delayed impulses. The main result is a theorem. It essentially states that if the unstable convolution subsystem can be stabilized by a constant feedback gain F and if incremental gain of the difference between the nonlinear gain function and F is sufficiently small, then the nonlinear system is L(p)-stable for any p between one and infinity. Furthermore, the solutions of the nonlinear system depend continuously on the inputs in any L(p)-norm. The fixed point theorem is crucial in deriving the above theorem.

On measures of association among genetic variables

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel; Manfredi, Eduardo; Simianer, Henner

2012-01-01

Summary Systems involving many variables are important in population and quantitative genetics, for example, in multi-trait prediction of breeding values and in exploration of multi-locus associations. We studied departures of the joint distribution of sets of genetic variables from independence. New measures of association based on notions of statistical distance between distributions are presented. These are more general than correlations, which are pairwise measures, and lack a clear interpretation beyond the bivariate normal distribution. Our measures are based on logarithmic (Kullback-Leibler) and on relative ‘distances’ between distributions. Indexes of association are developed and illustrated for quantitative genetics settings in which the joint distribution of the variables is either multivariate normal or multivariate-t, and we show how the indexes can be used to study linkage disequilibrium in a two-locus system with multiple alleles and present applications to systems of correlated beta distributions. Two multivariate beta and multivariate beta-binomial processes are examined, and new distributions are introduced: the GMS-Sarmanov multivariate beta and its beta-binomial counterpart. PMID:22742500

LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTS OF HYPOTHESES ON MULTIVARIATE POPULATIONS, VOLUME II, TEST OF HYPOTHESIS--STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF EDUCATIONAL CRITERIA. PART 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SAW, J.G.

THIS PAPER DEALS WITH SOME TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DATA. THE TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS CONSIDERED IS THAT WHICH THE STATISTICIAN CAN ANSWER IN THE NEGATIVE OR AFFIRMATIVE. THE DOOLITTLE METHOD MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO EVALUATE THE DETERMINANT OF A MATRIX OF HIGH ORDER, TO SOLVE A MATRIX EQUATION, OR TO…

Subtle but ubiquitous selection on body size in a natural population of collared flycatchers over 33 years.

PubMed

Björklund, M; Gustafsson, L

2017-07-01

Understanding the magnitude and long-term patterns of selection in natural populations is of importance, for example, when analysing the evolutionary impact of climate change. We estimated univariate and multivariate directional, quadratic and correlational selection on four morphological traits (adult wing, tarsus and tail length, body mass) over a time period of 33 years (≈ 19 000 observations) in a nest-box breeding population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis). In general, selection was weak in both males and females over the years regardless of fitness measure (fledged young, recruits and survival) with only few cases with statistically significant selection. When data were analysed in a multivariate context and as time series, a number of patterns emerged; there was a consistent, but weak, selection for longer wings in both sexes, selection was stronger on females when the number of fledged young was used as a fitness measure, there were no indications of sexually antagonistic selection, and we found a negative correlation between selection on tarsus and wing length in both sexes but using different fitness measures. Uni- and multivariate selection gradients were correlated only for wing length and mass. Multivariate selection gradient vectors were longer than corresponding vector of univariate gradients and had more constrained direction. Correlational selection had little importance. Overall, the fitness surface was more or less flat with few cases of significant curvature, indicating that the adaptive peak with regard to body size in this species is broader than the phenotypic distribution, which has resulted in weak estimates of selection. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Sample and population exponents of generalized Taylor's law.

PubMed

Giometto, Andrea; Formentin, Marco; Rinaldo, Andrea; Cohen, Joel E; Maritan, Amos

2015-06-23

Taylor's law (TL) states that the variance V of a nonnegative random variable is a power function of its mean M; i.e., V = aM(b). TL has been verified extensively in ecology, where it applies to population abundance, physics, and other natural sciences. Its ubiquitous empirical verification suggests a context-independent mechanism. Sample exponents b measured empirically via the scaling of sample mean and variance typically cluster around the value b = 2. Some theoretical models of population growth, however, predict a broad range of values for the population exponent b pertaining to the mean and variance of population density, depending on details of the growth process. Is the widely reported sample exponent b ≃ 2 the result of ecological processes or could it be a statistical artifact? Here, we apply large deviations theory and finite-sample arguments to show exactly that in a broad class of growth models the sample exponent is b ≃ 2 regardless of the underlying population exponent. We derive a generalized TL in terms of sample and population exponents b(jk) for the scaling of the kth vs. the jth cumulants. The sample exponent b(jk) depends predictably on the number of samples and for finite samples we obtain b(jk) ≃ k = j asymptotically in time, a prediction that we verify in two empirical examples. Thus, the sample exponent b ≃ 2 may indeed be a statistical artifact and not dependent on population dynamics under conditions that we specify exactly. Given the broad class of models investigated, our results apply to many fields where TL is used although inadequately understood.

Multivariate diallel analysis allows multiple gains in segregating populations for agronomic traits in Jatropha.

PubMed

Teodoro, P E; Rodrigues, E V; Peixoto, L A; Silva, L A; Laviola, B G; Bhering, L L

2017-03-22

Jatropha is research target worldwide aimed at large-scale oil production for biodiesel and bio-kerosene. Its production potential is among 1200 and 1500 kg/ha of oil after the 4th year. This study aimed to estimate combining ability of Jatropha genotypes by multivariate diallel analysis to select parents and crosses that allow gains in important agronomic traits. We performed crosses in diallel complete genetic design (3 x 3) arranged in blocks with five replications and three plants per plot. The following traits were evaluated: plant height, stem diameter, canopy projection between rows, canopy projection on the line, number of branches, mass of hundred grains, and grain yield. Data were submitted to univariate and multivariate diallel analysis. Genotypes 107 and 190 can be used in crosses for establishing a base population of Jatropha, since it has favorable alleles for increasing the mass of hundred grains and grain yield and reducing the plant height. The cross 190 x 107 is the most promising to perform the selection of superior genotypes for the simultaneous breeding of these traits.

Association of educational status with cardiovascular disease: Teheran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Hajsheikholeslami, Farhad; Hatami, Masumeh; Hadaegh, Farzad; Ghanbarian, Arash; Azizi, Fereidoun

2011-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations between educational level and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an older Iranian population. To estimate the odds ratio (OR) of educational level in a cross-sectional study, logistic regression analysis was used on 1,788 men and 2,204 women (222 men and 204 women positive based on their CVD status) aged ≥ 45 years. In men, educational levels of college degree and literacy level below diploma were inversely associated with CVD in the multivariate model [0.52 (0.28-0.94), 0.61 (0.40-0.92), respectively], but diploma level did not show any significant association with CVD, neither in the crude model nor in the multivariate model. In women, increase in educational level was inversely associated with risk of CVD in the crude model, but in the multivariate adjusted model, literacy level below diploma decreased risk of CVD by 39%, compared with illiteracy. Our findings support those of developed countries that, along with other CVD risk factors, educational status has an inverse association with CVD among a representative Iranian population of older men and women.

MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF DRINKING BEHAVIOUR IN A RURAL POPULATION

PubMed Central

Mathrubootham, N.; Bashyam, V.S.P.; Shahjahan

1997-01-01

This study was carried out to find out the drinking pattern in a rural population, using multivariate techniques. 386 current users identified in a community were assessed with regard to their drinking behaviours using a structured interview. For purposes of the study the questions were condensed into 46 meaningful variables. In bivariate analysis, 14 variables including dependent variables such as dependence, MAST & CAGE (measuring alcoholic status), Q.F. Index and troubled drinking were found to be significant. Taking these variables and other multivariate techniques too such as ANOVA, correlation, regression analysis and factor analysis were done using both SPSS PC + and HCL magnum mainframe computer with FOCUS package and UNIX systems. Results revealed that number of factors such as drinking style, duration of drinking, pattern of abuse, Q.F. Index and various problems influenced drinking and some of them set up a vicious circle. Factor analysis revealed mainly 3 factors, abuse, dependence and social drinking factors. Dependence could be divided into low/moderate dependence. The implications and practical applications of these tests are also discussed. PMID:21584077

Searching for New Biomarkers and the Use of Multivariate Analysis in Gastric Cancer Diagnostics.

PubMed

Kucera, Radek; Smid, David; Topolcan, Ondrej; Karlikova, Marie; Fiala, Ondrej; Slouka, David; Skalicky, Tomas; Treska, Vladislav; Kulda, Vlastimil; Simanek, Vaclav; Safanda, Martin; Pesta, Martin

2016-04-01

The first aim of this study was to search for new biomarkers to be used in gastric cancer diagnostics. The second aim was to verify the findings presented in literature on a sample of the local population and investigate the risk of gastric cancer in that population using a multivariant statistical analysis. We assessed a group of 36 patients with gastric cancer and 69 healthy individuals. We determined carcinoembryonic antigen, cancer antigen 19-9, cancer antigen 72-4, matrix metalloproteinases (-1, -2, -7, -8 and -9), osteoprotegerin, osteopontin, prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II, pepsinogen I, pepsinogen II, gastrin and Helicobacter pylori for each sample. The multivariate stepwise logistic regression identified the following biomarkers as the best gastric cancer predictors: CEA, CA72-4, pepsinogen I, Helicobacter pylori presence and MMP7. CEA and CA72-4 remain the best markers for gastric cancer diagnostics. We suggest a mathematical model for the assessment of risk of gastric cancer. Copyright© 2016 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalenkoski, Charlene M.; Hamrick, Karen S.; Andrews, Margaret

2011-01-01

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans' well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables…

Introducing Undergraduate Students to Metabolomics Using a NMR-Based Analysis of Coffee Beans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandusky, Peter Olaf

2017-01-01

Metabolomics applies multivariate statistical analysis to sets of high-resolution spectra taken over a population of biologically derived samples. The objective is to distinguish subpopulations within the overall sample population, and possibly also to identify biomarkers. While metabolomics has become part of the standard analytical toolbox in…

Statistical Modeling of the Individual: Rationale and Application of Multivariate Stationary Time Series Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2005-01-01

Results obtained with interindividual techniques in a representative sample of a population are not necessarily generalizable to the individual members of this population. In this article the specific condition is presented that must be satisfied to generalize from the interindividual level to the intraindividual level. A way to investigate…

Stochastic dynamics and stable equilibrium of evolutionary optional public goods game in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Ji; Liu, Wei; Chu, Yuqing; Wang, Xianjia

2018-07-01

Continuous noise caused by mutation is widely present in evolutionary systems. Considering the noise effects and under the optional participation mechanism, a stochastic model for evolutionary public goods game in a finite size population is established. The evolutionary process of strategies in the population is described as a multidimensional ergodic and continuous time Markov process. The stochastic stable state of the system is analyzed by the limit distribution of the stochastic process. By numerical experiments, the influences of the fixed income coefficient for non-participants and the investment income coefficient of the public goods on the stochastic stable equilibrium of the system are analyzed. Through the numerical calculation results, we found that the optional participation mechanism can change the evolutionary dynamics and the equilibrium of the public goods game, and there is a range of parameters which can effectively promote the evolution of cooperation. Further, we obtain the accurate quantitative relationship between the parameters and the probabilities for the system to choose different stable equilibriums, which can be used to realize the control of cooperation.

Anomalous finite-size effects in the Battle of the Sexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, J.; Reichenbach, T.; Frey, E.

2008-06-01

The Battle of the Sexes describes asymmetric conflicts in mating behavior of males and females. Males can be philanderer or faithful, while females are either fast or coy, leading to a cyclic dynamics. The adjusted replicator equation predicts stable coexistence of all four strategies. In this situation, we consider the effects of fluctuations stemming from a finite population size. We show that they unavoidably lead to extinction of two strategies in the population. However, the typical time until extinction occurs strongly prolongs with increasing system size. In the emerging time window, a quasi-stationary probability distribution forms that is anomalously flat in the vicinity of the coexistence state. This behavior originates in a vanishing linear deterministic drift near the fixed point. We provide numerical data as well as an analytical approach to the mean extinction time and the quasi-stationary probability distribution.

Evolution model with a cumulative feedback coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud; Schulz, Michael

2002-05-01

The paper is concerned with a toy model that generalizes the standard Lotka-Volterra equation for a certain population by introducing a competition between instantaneous and accumulative, history-dependent nonlinear feedback the origin of which could be a contribution from any kind of mismanagement in the past. The results depend on the sign of that additional cumulative loss or gain term of strength λ. In case of a positive coupling the system offers a maximum gain achieved after a finite time but the population will die out in the long time limit. In this case the instantaneous loss term of strength u is irrelevant and the model exhibits an exact solution. In the opposite case λ<0 the time evolution of the system is terminated in a crash after ts provided u=0. This singularity after a finite time can be avoided if u≠0. The approach may well be of relevance for the qualitative understanding of more realistic descriptions.

Sex hormones and quantitative ultrasound parameters at the heel in men and women from the general population.

PubMed

Pätzug, Konrad; Friedrich, Nele; Kische, Hanna; Hannemann, Anke; Völzke, Henry; Nauck, Matthias; Keevil, Brian G; Haring, Robin

2017-12-01

The present study investigates potential associations between liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) measured sex hormones, dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and bone ultrasound parameters at the heel in men and women from the general population. Data from 502 women and 425 men from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-TREND) were used. Cross-sectional associations of sex hormones including testosterone (TT), calculated free testosterone (FT), dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), androstenedione (ASD), estrone (E1) and SHBG with quantitative ultrasound (QUS) parameters at the heel, including broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS) and stiffness index (SI) were examined by analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multivariable quantile regression models. Multivariable regression analysis showed a sex-specific inverse association of DHEAS with SI in men (Beta per SI unit = - 3.08, standard error (SE) = 0.88), but not in women (Beta = - 0.01, SE = 2.09). Furthermore, FT was positively associated with BUA in men (Beta per BUA unit = 29.0, SE = 10.1). None of the other sex hormones (ASD, E1) or SHBG was associated with QUS parameters after multivariable adjustment. This cross-sectional population-based study revealed independent associations of DHEAS and FT with QUS parameters in men, suggesting a potential influence on male bone metabolism. The predictive role of DHEAS and FT as a marker for osteoporosis in men warrants further investigation in clinical trials and large-scale observational studies.

Quantitative Genetic Architecture at Latitudinal Range Boundaries: Reduced Variation but Higher Trait Independence.

PubMed

Paccard, Antoine; Van Buskirk, Josh; Willi, Yvonne

2016-05-01

Species distribution limits are hypothesized to be caused by small population size and limited genetic variation in ecologically relevant traits, but earlier studies have not evaluated genetic variation in multivariate phenotypes. We asked whether populations at the latitudinal edges of the distribution have altered quantitative genetic architecture of ecologically relevant traits compared with midlatitude populations. We calculated measures of evolutionary potential in nine Arabidopsis lyrata populations spanning the latitudinal range of the species in eastern and midwestern North America. Environments at the latitudinal extremes have reduced water availability, and therefore plants were assessed under wet and dry treatments. We estimated genetic variance-covariance (G-) matrices for 10 traits related to size, development, and water balance. Populations at southern and northern distribution edges had reduced levels of genetic variation across traits, but their G-matrices were more spherical; G-matrix orientation was unrelated to latitude. As a consequence, the predicted short-term response to selection was at least as strong in edge populations as in central populations. These results are consistent with genetic drift eroding variation and reducing the effectiveness of correlational selection at distribution margins. We conclude that genetic variation of isolated traits poorly predicts the capacity to evolve in response to multivariate selection and that the response to selection may frequently be greater than expected at species distribution margins because of genetic drift.

Multivariate Autoregressive Modeling and Granger Causality Analysis of Multiple Spike Trains

PubMed Central

Krumin, Michael; Shoham, Shy

2010-01-01

Recent years have seen the emergence of microelectrode arrays and optical methods allowing simultaneous recording of spiking activity from populations of neurons in various parts of the nervous system. The analysis of multiple neural spike train data could benefit significantly from existing methods for multivariate time-series analysis which have proven to be very powerful in the modeling and analysis of continuous neural signals like EEG signals. However, those methods have not generally been well adapted to point processes. Here, we use our recent results on correlation distortions in multivariate Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson spiking neuron models to derive generalized Yule-Walker-type equations for fitting ‘‘hidden” Multivariate Autoregressive models. We use this new framework to perform Granger causality analysis in order to extract the directed information flow pattern in networks of simulated spiking neurons. We discuss the relative merits and limitations of the new method. PMID:20454705

Prevalence of Diabetes and Associated Factors in the Uyghur and Han Population in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Gong, Haiying; Pa, Lize; Wang, Ke; Mu, Hebuli; Dong, Fen; Ya, Shengjiang; Xu, Guodong; Tao, Ning; Pan, Li; Wang, Bin; Shan, Guangliang

2015-10-14

To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and identify risk factors in the Uyghur and Han population in Xinjiang, China. A cross-sectional study in urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, including 2863 members of the Uyghur population and 3060 of the Han population aged 20 to 80 years, was conducted from June 2013 to August 2013. Data on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and personal history of diabetes were used to estimate the prevalence of diabetes. Data on demographic characteristics, lifestyle risk factors, and lipid profiles were collected to identify risks factors using the multivariate logistic regression model. In urban areas, the age- and gender-standardized prevalence of diabetes was 8.21%, and the age- and gender-standardized prevalence of diabetes was higher in the Uyghur population (10.47%) than in the Han population (7.36%). In rural areas, the age- and gender-standardized prevalence of diabetes was 6.08%, and it did not differ significantly between the Uyghur population (5.71%) and the Han population (6.59%). The results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age, obesity, high triglycerides (TG), and hypertension were all associated with an increased risk of diabetes in the Uyghur and Han population. Urban residence and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were associated with an increased risk of diabetes in the Uyghur population. Being an ex-drinker was associated with an increased risk of diabetes and heavy physical activity was associated with a decreased risk of diabetes in the Han population. Our study indicates that diabetes is more prevalent in the Uyghur population compared with the Han population in urban areas. Strategies aimed at the prevention of diabetes require ethnic targeting.

STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS OF METAL PARTITIONING TO MINERAL SURFACES

EPA Science Inventory

The conceptual understanding of surface complexation reactions that control trace element partitioning to mineral surfaces is limited by the assumption that the solid reactant possesses a finite, time-invariant population of surface functional groups. This assumption has limited...

Application of multivariate autoregressive spectrum estimation to ULF waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ioannidis, G. A.

1975-01-01

The estimation of the power spectrum of a time series by fitting a finite autoregressive model to the data has recently found widespread application in the physical sciences. The extension of this method to the analysis of vector time series is presented here through its application to ULF waves observed in the magnetosphere by the ATS 6 synchronous satellite. Autoregressive spectral estimates of the power and cross-power spectra of these waves are computed with computer programs developed by the author and are compared with the corresponding Blackman-Tukey spectral estimates. The resulting spectral density matrices are then analyzed to determine the direction of propagation and polarization of the observed waves.

Doi-Peliti path integral methods for stochastic systems with partial exclusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.

2018-09-01

Doi-Peliti methods are developed for stochastic models with finite maximum occupation numbers per site. We provide a generalized framework for the different Fock spaces reported in the literature. Paragrassmannian techniques are then utilized to construct path integral formulations of factorial moments. We show that for many models of interest, a Magnus expansion is required to construct a suitable action, meaning actions containing a finite number of terms are not always feasible. However, for such systems, perturbative techniques are still viable, and for some examples, including carrying capacity population dynamics, and diffusion with partial exclusion, the expansions are exactly summable.

Fermi-edge exciton-polaritons in doped semiconductor microcavities with finite hole mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimenov, Dimitri; von Delft, Jan; Glazman, Leonid; Goldstein, Moshe

2017-10-01

The coupling between a 2D semiconductor quantum well and an optical cavity gives rise to combined light-matter excitations, the exciton-polaritons. These were usually measured when the conduction band is empty, making the single polariton physics a simple single-body problem. The situation is dramatically different in the presence of a finite conduction-band population, where the creation or annihilation of a single exciton involves a many-body shakeup of the Fermi sea. Recent experiments in this regime revealed a strong modification of the exciton-polariton spectrum. Previous theoretical studies concerned with nonzero Fermi energy mostly relied on the approximation of an immobile valence-band hole with infinite mass, which is appropriate for low-mobility samples only; for high-mobility samples, one needs to consider a mobile hole with large but finite mass. To bridge this gap, we present an analytical diagrammatic approach and tackle a model with short-ranged (screened) electron-hole interaction, studying it in two complementary regimes. We find that the finite hole mass has opposite effects on the exciton-polariton spectra in the two regimes: in the first, where the Fermi energy is much smaller than the exciton binding energy, excitonic features are enhanced by the finite mass. In the second regime, where the Fermi energy is much larger than the exciton binding energy, finite mass effects cut off the excitonic features in the polariton spectra, in qualitative agreement with recent experiments.

Manual hierarchical clustering of regional geochemical data using a Bayesian finite mixture model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.; Smith, David

2016-01-01

Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples.

Standing on the shoulders of apes: Analyzing the form and function of the hominoid scapula using geometric morphometrics and finite element analysis.

PubMed

Püschel, Thomas A; Sellers, William I

2016-02-01

The aim was to analyze the relationship between scapular form and function in hominoids by using geometric morphometrics (GM) and finite element analysis (FEA). FEA was used to analyze the biomechanical performance of different hominoid scapulae by simulating static postural scenarios. GM was used to quantify scapular shape differences and the relationship between form and function was analyzed by applying both multivariate-multiple regressions and phylogenetic generalized least-squares regressions (PGLS). Although it has been suggested that primate scapular morphology is mainly a product of function rather than phylogeny, our results showed that shape has a significant phylogenetic signal. There was a significant relationship between scapular shape and its biomechanical performance; hence at least part of the scapular shape variation is due to non-phylogenetic factors, probably related to functional demands. This study has shown that a combined approach using GM and FEA was able to cast some light regarding the functional and phylogenetic contributions in hominoid scapular morphology, thus contributing to a better insight of the association between scapular form and function. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Integrand Reduction Reloaded: Algebraic Geometry and Finite Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sameshima, Ray D.; Ferroglia, Andrea; Ossola, Giovanni

2017-01-01

The evaluation of scattering amplitudes in quantum field theory allows us to compare the phenomenological prediction of particle theory with the measurement at collider experiments. The study of scattering amplitudes, in terms of their symmetries and analytic properties, provides a theoretical framework to develop techniques and efficient algorithms for the evaluation of physical cross sections and differential distributions. Tree-level calculations have been known for a long time. Loop amplitudes, which are needed to reduce the theoretical uncertainty, are more challenging since they involve a large number of Feynman diagrams, expressed as integrals of rational functions. At one-loop, the problem has been solved thanks to the combined effect of integrand reduction, such as the OPP method, and unitarity. However, plenty of work is still needed at higher orders, starting with the two-loop case. Recently, integrand reduction has been revisited using algebraic geometry. In this presentation, we review the salient features of integrand reduction for dimensionally regulated Feynman integrals, and describe an interesting technique for their reduction based on multivariate polynomial division. We also show a novel approach to improve its efficiency by introducing finite fields. Supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant PHY-1417354.

Unraveling spurious properties of interaction networks with tailored random networks.

PubMed

Bialonski, Stephan; Wendler, Martin; Lehnertz, Klaus

2011-01-01

We investigate interaction networks that we derive from multivariate time series with methods frequently employed in diverse scientific fields such as biology, quantitative finance, physics, earth and climate sciences, and the neurosciences. Mimicking experimental situations, we generate time series with finite length and varying frequency content but from independent stochastic processes. Using the correlation coefficient and the maximum cross-correlation, we estimate interdependencies between these time series. With clustering coefficient and average shortest path length, we observe unweighted interaction networks, derived via thresholding the values of interdependence, to possess non-trivial topologies as compared to Erdös-Rényi networks, which would indicate small-world characteristics. These topologies reflect the mostly unavoidable finiteness of the data, which limits the reliability of typically used estimators of signal interdependence. We propose random networks that are tailored to the way interaction networks are derived from empirical data. Through an exemplary investigation of multichannel electroencephalographic recordings of epileptic seizures--known for their complex spatial and temporal dynamics--we show that such random networks help to distinguish network properties of interdependence structures related to seizure dynamics from those spuriously induced by the applied methods of analysis.

Unraveling Spurious Properties of Interaction Networks with Tailored Random Networks

PubMed Central

Bialonski, Stephan; Wendler, Martin; Lehnertz, Klaus

2011-01-01

We investigate interaction networks that we derive from multivariate time series with methods frequently employed in diverse scientific fields such as biology, quantitative finance, physics, earth and climate sciences, and the neurosciences. Mimicking experimental situations, we generate time series with finite length and varying frequency content but from independent stochastic processes. Using the correlation coefficient and the maximum cross-correlation, we estimate interdependencies between these time series. With clustering coefficient and average shortest path length, we observe unweighted interaction networks, derived via thresholding the values of interdependence, to possess non-trivial topologies as compared to Erdös-Rényi networks, which would indicate small-world characteristics. These topologies reflect the mostly unavoidable finiteness of the data, which limits the reliability of typically used estimators of signal interdependence. We propose random networks that are tailored to the way interaction networks are derived from empirical data. Through an exemplary investigation of multichannel electroencephalographic recordings of epileptic seizures – known for their complex spatial and temporal dynamics – we show that such random networks help to distinguish network properties of interdependence structures related to seizure dynamics from those spuriously induced by the applied methods of analysis. PMID:21850239

Energy sustainability: consumption, efficiency, and environmental impact

EPA Science Inventory

One of the critical challenges in achieving sustainability is finding a way to meet the energy consumption needs of a growing population in the face of increasing economic prosperity and finite resources. According to ecological footprint computations, the global resource consump...

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-07-01

In this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth in Ghana was investigated from 1971 to 2013 by comparing the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Prior to testing for Granger causality based on VECM, the study tested for unit roots, Johansen's multivariate co-integration and performed a variance decomposition analysis using Cholesky's technique. Evidence from the variance decomposition shows that 21 % of future shocks in carbon dioxide emissions are due to fluctuations in energy use, 8 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in GDP, and 6 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in population. There was evidence of bidirectional causality running from energy use to GDP and a unidirectional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy use, carbon dioxide emissions to GDP, carbon dioxide emissions to population, and population to energy use. Evidence from the long-run elasticities shows that a 1 % increase in population in Ghana will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.72 %. There was evidence of short-run equilibrium relationship running from energy use to carbon dioxide emissions and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. As a policy implication, the addition of renewable energy and clean energy technologies into Ghana's energy mix can help mitigate climate change and its impact in the future.

Genetic structure of Quechua-speakers of the Central Andes and geographic patterns of gene frequencies in South Amerindian populations.

PubMed

Luiselli, D; Simoni, L; Tarazona-Santos, E; Pastor, S; Pettener, D

2000-09-01

A sample of 141 Quechua-speaking individuals of the population of Tayacaja, in the Peruvian Central Andes, was typed for the following 16 genetic systems: ABO, Rh, MNSs, P, Duffy, AcP1, EsD, GLOI, PGM1, AK, 6-PGD, Hp, Gc, Pi, C3, and Bf. The genetic structure of the population was analyzed in relation to the allele frequencies available for other South Amerindian populations, using a combination of multivariate and multivariable techniques. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed independently for 13 alleles to identify patterns of gene flow in South America as a whole and in more specific geographic regions. We found a longitudinal cline for the AcP1*a and EsD*1 alleles which we interpreted as the result of an ancient longitudinal expansion of a putative ancestral population of modern Amerindians. Monmonnier's algorithm, used to identify areas of sharp genetic discontinuity, suggested a clear east-west differentiation of native South American populations, which was confirmed by analysis of the distribution of genetic distances. We suggest that this pattern of genetic structures is the consequence of the independent peopling of western and eastern South America or to low levels of gene flow between these regions, related to different environmental and demographic histories. Copyright 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Urinary bladder cancer treated with radical cystectomy: perioperative parameters and early complications prospectively registered in a national population-based database.

PubMed

Jerlström, Tomas; Gårdmark, Truls; Carringer, Malcolm; Holmäng, Sten; Liedberg, Fredrik; Hosseini, Abolfazl; Malmström, Per-Uno; Ljungberg, Börje; Hagberg, Oskar; Jahnson, Staffan

2014-08-01

Cystectomy combined with pelvic lymph-node dissection and urinary diversion entails high morbidity and mortality. Improvements are needed, and a first step is to collect information on the current situation. In 2011, this group took the initiative to start a population-based database in Sweden (population 9.5 million in 2011) with prospective registration of patients and complications until 90 days after cystectomy. This article reports findings from the first year of registration. Participation was voluntary, and data were reported by local urologists or research nurses. Perioperative parameters and early complications classified according to the modified Clavien system were registered, and selected variables of possible importance for complications were analysed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. During 2011, 285 (65%) of 435 cystectomies performed in Sweden were registered in the database, the majority reported by the seven academic centres. Median blood loss was 1000 ml, operating time 318 min, and length of hospital stay 15 days. Any complications were registered for 103 patients (36%). Clavien grades 1-2 and 3-5 were noted in 19% and 15%, respectively. Thirty-seven patients (13%) were reoperated on at least once. In logistic regression analysis elevated risk of complications was significantly associated with operating time exceeding 318 min in both univariate and multivariate analysis, and with age 76-89 years only in multivariate analysis. It was feasible to start a national population-based registry of radical cystectomies for bladder cancer. The evaluation of the first year shows an increased risk of complications in patients with longer operating time and higher age. The results agree with some previously published series but should be interpreted with caution considering the relatively low coverage, which is expected to be higher in the future.

Maintenance of genetic variation with a frequency-dependent selection model as compared to the overdominant model.

PubMed

Hedrick, P W

1972-12-01

A frequency-dependent selection model proposed by Huang, Singh and Kojima (1971) was found to be more effective at maintaining genetic variation in a finite population than the overdominant model. The fourth moment parameter of the distribution of unfixed states showed that there was a more platykurtic distribution for the frequency-dependent model. This agreed well with the expected gene frequency change found for an infinite population.

Bayesian multivariate Poisson abundance models for T-cell receptor data.

PubMed

Greene, Joshua; Birtwistle, Marc R; Ignatowicz, Leszek; Rempala, Grzegorz A

2013-06-07

A major feature of an adaptive immune system is its ability to generate B- and T-cell clones capable of recognizing and neutralizing specific antigens. These clones recognize antigens with the help of the surface molecules, called antigen receptors, acquired individually during the clonal development process. In order to ensure a response to a broad range of antigens, the number of different receptor molecules is extremely large, resulting in a huge clonal diversity of both B- and T-cell receptor populations and making their experimental comparisons statistically challenging. To facilitate such comparisons, we propose a flexible parametric model of multivariate count data and illustrate its use in a simultaneous analysis of multiple antigen receptor populations derived from mammalian T-cells. The model relies on a representation of the observed receptor counts as a multivariate Poisson abundance mixture (m PAM). A Bayesian parameter fitting procedure is proposed, based on the complete posterior likelihood, rather than the conditional one used typically in similar settings. The new procedure is shown to be considerably more efficient than its conditional counterpart (as measured by the Fisher information) in the regions of m PAM parameter space relevant to model T-cell data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of heterogeneity.

PubMed

Gao, Feng; Philip Miller, J; Xiong, Chengjie; Luo, Jingqin; Beiser, Julia A; Chen, Ling; Gordon, Mae O

2017-08-17

Estimating correlation coefficients among outcomes is one of the most important analytical tasks in epidemiological and clinical research. Availability of multivariate longitudinal data presents a unique opportunity to assess joint evolution of outcomes over time. Bivariate linear mixed model (BLMM) provides a versatile tool with regard to assessing correlation. However, BLMMs often assume that all individuals are drawn from a single homogenous population where the individual trajectories are distributed smoothly around population average. Using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and visual acuity (VA) from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), we demonstrated strategies to better understand the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of potential heterogeneity. Conditional correlation (i.e., marginal correlation given random effects) was calculated to describe how the association between longitudinal outcomes evolved over time within specific subpopulation. The impact of heterogeneity on correlation was also assessed by simulated data. There was a significant positive correlation in both random intercepts (ρ = 0.278, 95% CI: 0.121-0.420) and random slopes (ρ = 0.579, 95% CI: 0.349-0.810) between longitudinal MD and VA, and the strength of correlation constantly increased over time. However, conditional correlation and simulation studies revealed that the correlation was induced primarily by participants with rapid deteriorating MD who only accounted for a small fraction of total samples. Conditional correlation given random effects provides a robust estimate to describe the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (NCT00000125).

Relationship Between Central and Peripheral Atherosclerosis and Left Ventricular Dysfunction in a Community Population

PubMed Central

Tsao, Connie W.; Gona, Philimon; Salton, Carol; Murabito, Joanne M.; Oyama, Noriko; Danias, Peter G.; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Manning, Warren J.; Yeon, Susan B.

2011-01-01

We aimed to determine the relationships between resting left ventricular (LV) wall motion abnormalities (WMAs), aortic plaque, and PAD in a community cohort. 1726 Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort participants (806 males, 65±9 years) underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance with quantification of aortic plaque volume and assessment of regional LV systolic function. Claudication, lower extremity revascularization, and ankle-brachial index (ABI) were recorded at Examination 7. WMAs were associated with greater aortic plaque burden, decreased ABI, and claudication in age- and sex-adjusted analyses (all p<0.001), which were not significant after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, both the presence (p<0.001) and volume of aortic plaque were associated with decreased ABI (p<0.001). After multivariable adjustment, ABI≤0.9 or prior revascularization was associated with a three-fold odds of aortic plaque (p=0.0083). Plaque volume significantly increased with decreasing ABI in multivariable-adjusted analyses (p<0.0001). In this free-living population, associations of WMAs with aortic plaque burden and clinical measures of PAD were attenuated after adjustment for coronary heart disease risk factors. Aortic plaque volume and ABI remained strongly negatively correlated after multivariable adjustment. Our findings suggest that the association between coronary heart disease and non-coronary atherosclerosis is explained by cardiovascular risk factors. Aortic atherosclerosis and PAD remain strongly associated after multivariable adjustment suggesting shared mechanisms beyond those captured by traditional risk factors. PMID:21708875

Integrated biomarker response in catfish Hypostomus ancistroides by multivariate analysis in the Pirapó River, southern Brazil.

PubMed

Ghisi, Nédia C; Oliveira, Elton C; Mendonça Mota, Thais F; Vanzetto, Guilherme V; Roque, Aliciane A; Godinho, Jayson P; Bettim, Franciele Lima; Silva de Assis, Helena Cristina da; Prioli, Alberto J

2016-10-01

Aquatic pollutants produce multiple consequences in organisms, populations, communities and ecosystems, affecting the function of organs, reproductive state, population size, species survival and even biodiversity. In order to monitor the health of aquatic organisms, biomarkers have been used as effective tools in environmental risk assessment. The aim of this study is to evaluate, through a multivariate and integrative analysis, the response of the native species Hypostomus ancistroides over a pollution gradient in the main water supply body of northwestern Paraná state (Brazil). The condition factor, micronucleus test and erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities (ENA), comet assay, measurement of the cerebral and muscular enzyme acetylcholinesterase (AChE), and histopathological analysis of liver and gill were evaluated in fishes from three sites of the Pirapó River during the dry and rainy seasons. The multivariate general result showed that the interaction between the seasons and the sites was significant: there are variations in the rates of alterations in the biological parameters, depending on the time of year researched at each site. In general, the best results were observed for the site nearest the spring, and alterations in the parameters at the intermediate and downstream sites. In sum, the results of this study showed the necessity of a multivariate analysis, evaluating several biological parameters, to obtain an integrated response to the effects of the environmental pollutants on the organisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional differences in echocardiography provision in New Zealand--results from the 2013 SCANZ Workforce Survey.

PubMed

Buckley, Belinda A; Poppe, Katrina; Farnworth, Mark J; Whalley, Gillian

2015-01-30

Abstract Healthcare may be unevenly distributed based on geographic location. This study aimed to identify whether regional differences in echocardiography provision exist and, if so, to explore key causes. In March 2013, 18 public hospitals with a sonographer-led echocardiography service were surveyed, all of which provided data. Questions related to characteristics of the sonographer workforce, echocardiogram volumes and workflows. Information on District Health Board (DHB) population was obtained from public access websites. Multivariable linear regression was performed using the following variables: ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, type of centre, sonographer full-time equivalent (FTE) and number/proportion of trainees to determine their potential contribution to echocardiogram volume. 1748 echocardiograms were performed per 100,000 population (mean) with significant differences seen amongst DHBs but not between tertiary surgical and regional centres (surgical median 1802, regional median 1658, p=0.18). Regional disparity in the population-based cardiac sonographer workforce size was observed and the number of scans performed per sonographer was higher in larger centres. In multivariable modelling, the DHB population-based scan volume was predicted by: socioeconomic status (top two quintiles of deprivation status increased scans by 75 per 100,000 population, p=0.02) and age (age 20 to 65 years increased scans by 131 per 100,000 population, p=0.06). Regional differences in echocardiography services in New Zealand exist as evidenced by marked regional disparity in both population-based echo volumes and cardiac sonographer workforce size.

VARIANCE ESTIMATION FOR SPATIALLY BALANCED SAMPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial distribution of a natural resource is an important consideration in designing an efficient survey or monitoring program for the resource. We review a unified strategy for designing probability samples of discrete, finite resource populations, such as lakes within som...

Numerical Simulation and Optimization of Directional Solidification Process of Single Crystal Superalloy Casting

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hang; Xu, Qingyan; Liu, Baicheng

2014-01-01

The rapid development of numerical modeling techniques has led to more accurate results in modeling metal solidification processes. In this study, the cellular automaton-finite difference (CA-FD) method was used to simulate the directional solidification (DS) process of single crystal (SX) superalloy blade samples. Experiments were carried out to validate the simulation results. Meanwhile, an intelligent model based on fuzzy control theory was built to optimize the complicate DS process. Several key parameters, such as mushy zone width and temperature difference at the cast-mold interface, were recognized as the input variables. The input variables were functioned with the multivariable fuzzy rule to get the output adjustment of withdrawal rate (v) (a key technological parameter). The multivariable fuzzy rule was built, based on the structure feature of casting, such as the relationship between section area, and the delay time of the temperature change response by changing v, and the professional experience of the operator as well. Then, the fuzzy controlling model coupled with CA-FD method could be used to optimize v in real-time during the manufacturing process. The optimized process was proven to be more flexible and adaptive for a steady and stray-grain free DS process. PMID:28788535

Design and Implementation of a Parallel Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Poseidon Ocean General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Koblinsky, Chester (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A multivariate ensemble Kalman filter (MvEnKF) implemented on a massively parallel computer architecture has been implemented for the Poseidon ocean circulation model and tested with a Pacific Basin model configuration. There are about two million prognostic state-vector variables. Parallelism for the data assimilation step is achieved by regionalization of the background-error covariances that are calculated from the phase-space distribution of the ensemble. Each processing element (PE) collects elements of a matrix measurement functional from nearby PEs. To avoid the introduction of spurious long-range covariances associated with finite ensemble sizes, the background-error covariances are given compact support by means of a Hadamard (element by element) product with a three-dimensional canonical correlation function. The methodology and the MvEnKF configuration are discussed. It is shown that the regionalization of the background covariances; has a negligible impact on the quality of the analyses. The parallel algorithm is very efficient for large numbers of observations but does not scale well beyond 100 PEs at the current model resolution. On a platform with distributed memory, memory rather than speed is the limiting factor.

Medicalising normality? Using a simulated dataset to assess the performance of different diagnostic criteria of HIV-associated cognitive impairment

PubMed Central

De Francesco, Davide; Leech, Robert; Sabin, Caroline A.; Winston, Alan

2018-01-01

Objective The reported prevalence of cognitive impairment remains similar to that reported in the pre-antiretroviral therapy era. This may be partially artefactual due to the methods used to diagnose impairment. In this study, we evaluated the diagnostic performance of the HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (Frascati criteria) and global deficit score (GDS) methods in comparison to a new, multivariate method of diagnosis. Methods Using a simulated ‘normative’ dataset informed by real-world cognitive data from the observational Pharmacokinetic and Clinical Observations in PeoPle Over fiftY (POPPY) cohort study, we evaluated the apparent prevalence of cognitive impairment using the Frascati and GDS definitions, as well as a novel multivariate method based on the Mahalanobis distance. We then quantified the diagnostic properties (including positive and negative predictive values and accuracy) of each method, using bootstrapping with 10,000 replicates, with a separate ‘test’ dataset to which a pre-defined proportion of ‘impaired’ individuals had been added. Results The simulated normative dataset demonstrated that up to ~26% of a normative control population would be diagnosed with cognitive impairment with the Frascati criteria and ~20% with the GDS. In contrast, the multivariate Mahalanobis distance method identified impairment in ~5%. Using the test dataset, diagnostic accuracy [95% confidence intervals] and positive predictive value (PPV) was best for the multivariate method vs. Frascati and GDS (accuracy: 92.8% [90.3–95.2%] vs. 76.1% [72.1–80.0%] and 80.6% [76.6–84.5%] respectively; PPV: 61.2% [48.3–72.2%] vs. 29.4% [22.2–36.8%] and 33.9% [25.6–42.3%] respectively). Increasing the a priori false positive rate for the multivariate Mahalanobis distance method from 5% to 15% resulted in an increase in sensitivity from 77.4% (64.5–89.4%) to 92.2% (83.3–100%) at a cost of specificity from 94.5% (92.8–95.2%) to 85.0% (81.2–88.5%). Conclusion Our simulations suggest that the commonly used diagnostic criteria of HIV-associated cognitive impairment label a significant proportion of a normative reference population as cognitively impaired, which will likely lead to a substantial over-estimate of the true proportion in a study population, due to their lower than expected specificity. These findings have important implications for clinical research regarding cognitive health in people living with HIV. More accurate methods of diagnosis should be implemented, with multivariate techniques offering a promising solution. PMID:29641619

Stabilizing Selection, Purifying Selection, and Mutational Bias in Finite Populations

PubMed Central

Charlesworth, Brian

2013-01-01

Genomic traits such as codon usage and the lengths of noncoding sequences may be subject to stabilizing selection rather than purifying selection. Mutations affecting these traits are often biased in one direction. To investigate the potential role of stabilizing selection on genomic traits, the effects of mutational bias on the equilibrium value of a trait under stabilizing selection in a finite population were investigated, using two different mutational models. Numerical results were generated using a matrix method for calculating the probability distribution of variant frequencies at sites affecting the trait, as well as by Monte Carlo simulations. Analytical approximations were also derived, which provided useful insights into the numerical results. A novel conclusion is that the scaled intensity of selection acting on individual variants is nearly independent of the effective population size over a wide range of parameter space and is strongly determined by the logarithm of the mutational bias parameter. This is true even when there is a very small departure of the mean from the optimum, as is usually the case. This implies that studies of the frequency spectra of DNA sequence variants may be unable to distinguish between stabilizing and purifying selection. A similar investigation of purifying selection against deleterious mutations was also carried out. Contrary to previous suggestions, the scaled intensity of purifying selection with synergistic fitness effects is sensitive to population size, which is inconsistent with the general lack of sensitivity of codon usage to effective population size. PMID:23709636

Productivity losses in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based survey.

PubMed

Erdal, Marta; Johannessen, Ane; Askildsen, Jan Erik; Eagan, Tomas; Gulsvik, Amund; Grønseth, Rune

2014-01-01

We aimed to estimate incremental productivity losses (sick leave and disability) of spirometry-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a population-based sample and in hospital-recruited patients with COPD. Furthermore, we examined predictors of productivity losses by multivariate analyses. We performed four quarterly telephone interviews of 53 and 107 population-based patients with COPD and controls, as well as 102 hospital-recruited patients with COPD below retirement age. Information was gathered regarding annual productivity loss, exacerbations of respiratory symptoms and comorbidities. Incremental productivity losses were estimated by multivariate quantile median regression according to the human capital approach, adjusting for sex, age, smoking habits, education and lung function. Main effect variables were COPD/control status, number of comorbidities and exacerbations of respiratory symptoms. Altogether 55%, 87% and 31% of population-based COPD cases, controls and hospital patients, respectively, had a paid job at baseline. The annual incremental productivity losses were 5.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 10.1) and 330.6 (95% CI 327.8 to 333.3) days, comparing population-recruited and hospital-recruited patients with COPD to controls, respectively. There were significantly higher productivity losses associated with female sex and less education. Additional adjustments for comorbidities, exacerbations and FEV1% predicted explained all productivity losses in the population-based sample, as well as nearly 40% of the productivity losses in hospital-recruited patients. Annual incremental productivity losses were more than 50 times higher in hospital-recruited patients with COPD than that of population-recruited patients with COPD. To ensure a precise estimation of societal burden, studies on patients with COPD should be population-based.

Multivariate meta-analysis for non-linear and other multi-parameter associations

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Kenward, M G

2012-01-01

In this paper, we formalize the application of multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression to synthesize estimates of multi-parameter associations obtained from different studies. This modelling approach extends the standard two-stage analysis used to combine results across different sub-groups or populations. The most straightforward application is for the meta-analysis of non-linear relationships, described for example by regression coefficients of splines or other functions, but the methodology easily generalizes to any setting where complex associations are described by multiple correlated parameters. The modelling framework of multivariate meta-analysis is implemented in the package mvmeta within the statistical environment R. As an illustrative example, we propose a two-stage analysis for investigating the non-linear exposure–response relationship between temperature and non-accidental mortality using time-series data from multiple cities. Multivariate meta-analysis represents a useful analytical tool for studying complex associations through a two-stage procedure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22807043

An Exactly Solvable Model for the Spread of Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mickens, Ronald E.

2012-01-01

We present a new SIR epidemiological model whose exact analytical solution can be calculated. In this model, unlike previous models, the infective population becomes zero at a finite time. Remarkably, these results can be derived from only an elementary knowledge of differential equations.

Phosphorus recovery and reuse from waste streams

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phosphorus (P) is a macronutrient essential for all living organisms. Regrettably, it is a finite resource since phosphate rock (PR) is the main material used for production of P fertilizers. Globally, the demand for quality PR is escalating due to many factors including increasing human population....

Maintenance of Genetic Variation with a Frequency-Dependent Selection Model as Compared to the Overdominant Model

PubMed Central

Hedrick, Philip W.

1972-01-01

A frequency-dependent selection model proposed by Huang, Singh and Kojima (1971) was found to be more effective at maintaining genetic variation in a finite population than the overdominant model. The fourth moment parameter of the distribution of unfixed states showed that there was a more platykurtic distribution for the frequency-dependent model. This agreed well with the expected gene frequency change found for an infinite population. PMID:4652882

Magneto-thermal reconnection processes, related mode momentum and formation of high energy particle populations

DOE PAGES

Coppi, B.; Basu, B.; Fletcher, A.

2017-05-31

In the context of a two-fluid theory of magnetic reconnection, when the longitudinal electron thermal conductivity is relatively large, the perturbed electron temperature tends to become singular in the presence of a reconnected field component and an electron temperature gradient. A finite transverse thermal diffusivity removes this singularity while a finite ‘inductivity’ can remove the singularity of the relevant plasma displacement. Then (i) a new ‘magneto-thermal’ reconnection producing mode, is found with characteristic widths of the reconnection layer remaining significant even when the macroscopic distances involved are very large; (ii) the mode phase velocities can be both in the directionmore » of the electron diamagnetic velocity as well in the opposite (ion) direction. A numerical solution of the complete set of equations has been carried out with a simplified analytical reformulation of the problem. A sequence of processes is analyzed to point out that high-energy particle populations can be produced as a result of reconnection events. These processes involve mode-particle resonances transferring energy of the reconnecting mode to a superthermal ion population and the excitation of lower hybrid waves that can lead to a significant superthermal electron population. The same modes excited in axisymmetric (e.g. toroidal) confinement configurations can extract angular momentum from the main body of the plasma column and thereby sustain a local ‘spontaneous rotation’ of it.« less

A process of rumour scotching on finite populations.

PubMed

de Arruda, Guilherme Ferraz; Lebensztayn, Elcio; Rodrigues, Francisco A; Rodríguez, Pablo Martín

2015-09-01

Rumour spreading is a ubiquitous phenomenon in social and technological networks. Traditional models consider that the rumour is propagated by pairwise interactions between spreaders and ignorants. Only spreaders are active and may become stiflers after contacting spreaders or stiflers. Here we propose a competition-like model in which spreaders try to transmit an information, while stiflers are also active and try to scotch it. We study the influence of transmission/scotching rates and initial conditions on the qualitative behaviour of the process. An analytical treatment based on the theory of convergence of density-dependent Markov chains is developed to analyse how the final proportion of ignorants behaves asymptotically in a finite homogeneously mixing population. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in random graphs and scale-free networks and verify that the results obtained for homogeneously mixing populations can be approximated for random graphs, but are not suitable for scale-free networks. Furthermore, regarding the process on a heterogeneous mixing population, we obtain a set of differential equations that describes the time evolution of the probability that an individual is in each state. Our model can also be applied for studying systems in which informed agents try to stop the rumour propagation, or for describing related susceptible-infected-recovered systems. In addition, our results can be considered to develop optimal information dissemination strategies and approaches to control rumour propagation.

A process of rumour scotching on finite populations

PubMed Central

de Arruda, Guilherme Ferraz; Lebensztayn, Elcio; Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Rodríguez, Pablo Martín

2015-01-01

Rumour spreading is a ubiquitous phenomenon in social and technological networks. Traditional models consider that the rumour is propagated by pairwise interactions between spreaders and ignorants. Only spreaders are active and may become stiflers after contacting spreaders or stiflers. Here we propose a competition-like model in which spreaders try to transmit an information, while stiflers are also active and try to scotch it. We study the influence of transmission/scotching rates and initial conditions on the qualitative behaviour of the process. An analytical treatment based on the theory of convergence of density-dependent Markov chains is developed to analyse how the final proportion of ignorants behaves asymptotically in a finite homogeneously mixing population. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in random graphs and scale-free networks and verify that the results obtained for homogeneously mixing populations can be approximated for random graphs, but are not suitable for scale-free networks. Furthermore, regarding the process on a heterogeneous mixing population, we obtain a set of differential equations that describes the time evolution of the probability that an individual is in each state. Our model can also be applied for studying systems in which informed agents try to stop the rumour propagation, or for describing related susceptible–infected–recovered systems. In addition, our results can be considered to develop optimal information dissemination strategies and approaches to control rumour propagation. PMID:26473048

Subjective Well-Being in a Multicultural Urban Population: Structural, and Multivariate Analyses of the Ontario Health Survey Well-Being Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

John, Lindsay Herbert

2004-01-01

The validity of a scale, from the Ontario Health Survey, measuring the subjective sense of well-being, for a large multicultural population in Metropolitan Toronto, is examined through principal components analysis with oblique rotation. Four factors are extracted. Factor 1, is a stress and strain factor, and consists of health worries, feeling…

Population-based study of high plasma C-reactive protein concentrations among the Inuit of Nunavik.

PubMed

Labonté, Marie-Eve; Dewailly, Eric; Chateau-Degat, Marie-Ludivine; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2012-01-01

The shift away from traditional lifestyle in the Inuit population over the past few decades has been associated with an increased prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure (BP) and diabetes. However, the impact of this transition on the pro-inflammatory marker high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) has not been documented. To examine the prevalence of elevated plasma hs-CRP concentrations in Inuit from Nunavik in the province of Quebec (Canada) and identify anthropometric, biochemical and lifestyle risk factors associated with elevated hs-CRP. A population-representative sample of 801 Inuit residents from 14 villages of Nunavik, aged between 18 and 74 years, was included in the analyses. Subjects participated in a clinical session and completed questionnaires on lifestyle. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for elevated hs-CRP. Elevated plasma hs-CRP concentrations (≥ 2 mg/L) were present in 32.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.5-35.8) of the Inuit adult population and were more prevalent among women than among men (36.7% vs. 29.0%, p=0.007). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that every 1 mmHg increase in systolic BP was associated with a 3% increase in the odds of having hs-CRP concentrations ≥ 2 mg/L in the Inuit population (95% CI 1.01-1.04). The combination of older age (≥ 50 vs. <30 years) and elevated waist circumference (gender-specific cut-off values) in a multivariate logistic model was also associated with a 13.3-fold increase in the odds of having plasma hs-CRP concentrations ≥ 2 mg/L (95% CI 5.8-30.9). These data indicate that elevated hs-CRP is relatively prevalent among Inuit with values that are similar to those seen in Canadian Caucasian populations. Sex, age, waist circumference and systolic BP are major factors that increase the risk of this inflammatory phenotype among Inuit from Nunavik, despite their different lifestyle background compared with Caucasians.

Population-based study of high plasma C-reactive protein concentrations among the Inuit of Nunavik

PubMed Central

Labonté, Marie-Eve; Dewailly, Eric; Chateau-Degat, Marie-Ludivine; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2012-01-01

Background The shift away from traditional lifestyle in the Inuit population over the past few decades has been associated with an increased prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure (BP) and diabetes. However, the impact of this transition on the pro-inflammatory marker high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) has not been documented. Objectives To examine the prevalence of elevated plasma hs-CRP concentrations in Inuit from Nunavik in the province of Quebec (Canada) and identify anthropometric, biochemical and lifestyle risk factors associated with elevated hs-CRP. Design A population-representative sample of 801 Inuit residents from 14 villages of Nunavik, aged between 18 and 74 years, was included in the analyses. Subjects participated in a clinical session and completed questionnaires on lifestyle. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for elevated hs-CRP. Results Elevated plasma hs-CRP concentrations (≥2 mg/L) were present in 32.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.5–35.8) of the Inuit adult population and were more prevalent among women than among men (36.7% vs. 29.0%, p=0.007). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that every 1 mmHg increase in systolic BP was associated with a 3% increase in the odds of having hs-CRP concentrations ≥2 mg/L in the Inuit population (95% CI 1.01–1.04). The combination of older age (≥50 vs. <30 years) and elevated waist circumference (gender-specific cut-off values) in a multivariate logistic model was also associated with a 13.3-fold increase in the odds of having plasma hs-CRP concentrations ≥2 mg/L (95% CI 5.8–30.9). Conclusions These data indicate that elevated hs-CRP is relatively prevalent among Inuit with values that are similar to those seen in Canadian Caucasian populations. Sex, age, waist circumference and systolic BP are major factors that increase the risk of this inflammatory phenotype among Inuit from Nunavik, despite their different lifestyle background compared with Caucasians. PMID:23087913

Risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: findings from the Andhra Pradesh eye disease study in South India.

PubMed

Krishnaiah, Sannapaneni; Das, Taraprasad; Nirmalan, Praveen K; Nutheti, Rishita; Shamanna, Bindiganavale R; Rao, Gullapalli N; Thomas, Ravi

2005-12-01

To assess prevalence, potential risk factors, and population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. A population-based study, using a stratified, random, cluster, systematic sampling strategy, was conducted in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India from 1996 to 2000. Participants from 94 clusters in one urban and three rural areas representative of the population of Andhra Pradesh underwent a detailed interview and a detailed dilated ocular evaluation by trained professionals. In this report, the authors present the prevalence estimates of AMD and examine the association of AMD with potential risk factors in persons aged 40 to 102 years (n = 3723). AMD was defined according to the international classification and grading system. Standard bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the potential risk factors for AMD. PAR% was calculated by Levin's formula. AMD was present in 71 subjects--an age-gender-area-adjusted prevalence of 1.82% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39%-2.25%). Risk factors that were significant in bivariate analyses were considered for multivariate logistic regression analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that the adjusted prevalence of AMD was significantly higher in those 60 years of age or older (odds ratio [OR], 3.55; 95% CI, 1.61-7.82) and history of prior cigar smoking (OR, 3.29; 95%CI, 1.42-7.57). Presence of cortical cataract and prior cataract surgery were significantly associated with increased prevalence of AMD (adjusted OR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.57-5.26 and 3.79; 95% CI, 2.1-6.78), respectively. The prevalence of AMD was significantly lower in light alcohol drinkers (adjusted OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.19-0.76) compared with nondrinkers. The PAR% for hypertension and heavy cigar smoking was 10% and 14%, respectively, in this population. The prevalence of AMD in this south Indian population is similar to those reported in other developed countries. Abstinence from smoking may reduce the risk of AMD in this population.

Copula based flexible modeling of associations between clustered event times.

PubMed

Geerdens, Candida; Claeskens, Gerda; Janssen, Paul

2016-07-01

Multivariate survival data are characterized by the presence of correlation between event times within the same cluster. First, we build multi-dimensional copulas with flexible and possibly symmetric dependence structures for such data. In particular, clustered right-censored survival data are modeled using mixtures of max-infinitely divisible bivariate copulas. Second, these copulas are fit by a likelihood approach where the vast amount of copula derivatives present in the likelihood is approximated by finite differences. Third, we formulate conditions for clustered right-censored survival data under which an information criterion for model selection is either weakly consistent or consistent. Several of the familiar selection criteria are included. A set of four-dimensional data on time-to-mastitis is used to demonstrate the developed methodology.

Functional Generalized Structured Component Analysis.

PubMed

Suk, Hye Won; Hwang, Heungsun

2016-12-01

An extension of Generalized Structured Component Analysis (GSCA), called Functional GSCA, is proposed to analyze functional data that are considered to arise from an underlying smooth curve varying over time or other continua. GSCA has been geared for the analysis of multivariate data. Accordingly, it cannot deal with functional data that often involve different measurement occasions across participants and a large number of measurement occasions that exceed the number of participants. Functional GSCA addresses these issues by integrating GSCA with spline basis function expansions that represent infinite-dimensional curves onto a finite-dimensional space. For parameter estimation, functional GSCA minimizes a penalized least squares criterion by using an alternating penalized least squares estimation algorithm. The usefulness of functional GSCA is illustrated with gait data.

Hospitalizations due to unintentional transport injuries among Aboriginal population of British Columbia, Canada: Incidence, changes over time and ecological analysis of risk markers

PubMed Central

George, M. Anne; Jin, Andrew; Amram, Ofer; McCormick, Rod; Lalonde, Christopher E.

2018-01-01

Background Worldwide, Indigenous people have disproportionately higher rates of transport injuries. We examined disparities in injury-related hospitalizations resulting from transport incidents for three population groups in British Columbia (BC): total population, Aboriginal off-reserve, and Aboriginal on-reserve populations. We also examined sociodemographic, geographic and ethnic risk markers for disparities. Methods We identified Aboriginal people through BC’s universal health care insurance plan insurance premium group and birth and death record notations. We calculated crude incidence rate and Standardized Relative Risk (SRR) of hospitalization for unintentional transport injury, standardized for age, gender and Health Service Delivery Area (HSDA), relative to the total population of BC. We tested hypothesized associations of geographic, socio-economic, and employment-related characteristics of Aboriginal communities with SRR of transport injury by multivariable linear regression. Results During the period 1991–2010, the SRR for the off-reserve Aboriginal population was 1.77 (95% CI: 1.71 to 1.83); and 2.00 (95% CI: 1.93 to 2.07) among those living on-reserve. Decline in crude rate and SRRs was observed over this period among both the Aboriginal and total populations of BC, but was proportionally greater among the Aboriginal population. The best-fitting multivariable risk marker model was an excellent fit (R2 = 0.912, p<0.001), predicted SRRs very close to observed values, and retained the following terms: urban residence, population per room, proportion of the population with a high school certificate, proportion of the population employed; and multiplicative interactions of Aboriginal ethnicity with population per room and proportion of the population employed. Conclusions Disparities in risk of hospitalization due to unintentional transport injury have narrowed. Aboriginal ethnicity modifies the effects of socioeconomic risk factors. Continued improvement of socioeconomic conditions and implementation of culturally relevant injury prevention interventions are needed. PMID:29373595

Hospitalizations due to unintentional transport injuries among Aboriginal population of British Columbia, Canada: Incidence, changes over time and ecological analysis of risk markers.

PubMed

Brussoni, Mariana; George, M Anne; Jin, Andrew; Amram, Ofer; McCormick, Rod; Lalonde, Christopher E

2018-01-01

Worldwide, Indigenous people have disproportionately higher rates of transport injuries. We examined disparities in injury-related hospitalizations resulting from transport incidents for three population groups in British Columbia (BC): total population, Aboriginal off-reserve, and Aboriginal on-reserve populations. We also examined sociodemographic, geographic and ethnic risk markers for disparities. We identified Aboriginal people through BC's universal health care insurance plan insurance premium group and birth and death record notations. We calculated crude incidence rate and Standardized Relative Risk (SRR) of hospitalization for unintentional transport injury, standardized for age, gender and Health Service Delivery Area (HSDA), relative to the total population of BC. We tested hypothesized associations of geographic, socio-economic, and employment-related characteristics of Aboriginal communities with SRR of transport injury by multivariable linear regression. During the period 1991-2010, the SRR for the off-reserve Aboriginal population was 1.77 (95% CI: 1.71 to 1.83); and 2.00 (95% CI: 1.93 to 2.07) among those living on-reserve. Decline in crude rate and SRRs was observed over this period among both the Aboriginal and total populations of BC, but was proportionally greater among the Aboriginal population. The best-fitting multivariable risk marker model was an excellent fit (R2 = 0.912, p<0.001), predicted SRRs very close to observed values, and retained the following terms: urban residence, population per room, proportion of the population with a high school certificate, proportion of the population employed; and multiplicative interactions of Aboriginal ethnicity with population per room and proportion of the population employed. Disparities in risk of hospitalization due to unintentional transport injury have narrowed. Aboriginal ethnicity modifies the effects of socioeconomic risk factors. Continued improvement of socioeconomic conditions and implementation of culturally relevant injury prevention interventions are needed.

Mixture Modeling: Applications in Educational Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hodis, Flaviu A.

2016-01-01

Model-based clustering methods, commonly referred to as finite mixture modeling, have been applied to a wide variety of cross-sectional and longitudinal data to account for heterogeneity in population characteristics. In this article, we elucidate 2 such approaches: growth mixture modeling and latent profile analysis. Both techniques are…

Environmental heterogeneity explains the genetic structure of Continental and Mediterranean populations of Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl.

PubMed

Temunović, Martina; Franjić, Jozo; Satovic, Zlatko; Grgurev, Marin; Frascaria-Lacoste, Nathalie; Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F

2012-01-01

Tree species with wide distributions often exhibit different levels of genetic structuring correlated to their environment. However, understanding how environmental heterogeneity influences genetic variation is difficult because the effects of gene flow, drift and selection are confounded. We investigated the genetic variation and its ecological correlates in a wind-pollinated Mediterranean tree species, Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl, within a recognised glacial refugium in Croatia. We sampled 11 populations from environmentally divergent habitats within the Continental and Mediterranean biogeographical regions. We combined genetic data analyses based on nuclear microsatellite loci, multivariate statistics on environmental data and ecological niche modelling (ENM). We identified a geographic structure with a high genetic diversity and low differentiation in the Continental region, which contrasted with the significantly lower genetic diversity and higher population divergence in the Mediterranean region. The positive and significant correlation between environmental and genetic distances after controlling for geographic distance suggests an important influence of ecological divergence of the sites in shaping genetic variation. The ENM provided support for niche differentiation between the populations from the Continental and Mediterranean regions, suggesting that contemporary populations may represent two divergent ecotypes. Ecotype differentiation was also supported by multivariate environmental and genetic distance analyses. Our results suggest that despite extensive gene flow in continental areas, long-term stability of heterogeneous environments have likely promoted genetic divergence of ashes in this region and can explain the present-day genetic variation patterns of these ancient populations.

Environmental Heterogeneity Explains the Genetic Structure of Continental and Mediterranean Populations of Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl

PubMed Central

Temunović, Martina; Franjić, Jozo; Satovic, Zlatko; Grgurev, Marin; Frascaria-Lacoste, Nathalie; Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F.

2012-01-01

Tree species with wide distributions often exhibit different levels of genetic structuring correlated to their environment. However, understanding how environmental heterogeneity influences genetic variation is difficult because the effects of gene flow, drift and selection are confounded. We investigated the genetic variation and its ecological correlates in a wind-pollinated Mediterranean tree species, Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl, within a recognised glacial refugium in Croatia. We sampled 11 populations from environmentally divergent habitats within the Continental and Mediterranean biogeographical regions. We combined genetic data analyses based on nuclear microsatellite loci, multivariate statistics on environmental data and ecological niche modelling (ENM). We identified a geographic structure with a high genetic diversity and low differentiation in the Continental region, which contrasted with the significantly lower genetic diversity and higher population divergence in the Mediterranean region. The positive and significant correlation between environmental and genetic distances after controlling for geographic distance suggests an important influence of ecological divergence of the sites in shaping genetic variation. The ENM provided support for niche differentiation between the populations from the Continental and Mediterranean regions, suggesting that contemporary populations may represent two divergent ecotypes. Ecotype differentiation was also supported by multivariate environmental and genetic distance analyses. Our results suggest that despite extensive gene flow in continental areas, long-term stability of heterogeneous environments have likely promoted genetic divergence of ashes in this region and can explain the present-day genetic variation patterns of these ancient populations. PMID:22905171

Serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate, psychosocial factors and musculoskeletal pain in workers.

PubMed

Marinelli, A; Prodi, A; Pesel, G; Ronchese, F; Bovenzi, M; Negro, C; Larese Filon, F

2017-12-30

The serum level of dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEA-S) has been suggested as a biological marker of stress. To assess the association between serum DHEA-S, psychosocial factors and musculoskeletal (MS) pain in university workers. The study population included voluntary workers at the scientific departments of the University of Trieste (Italy) who underwent periodical health surveillance from January 2011 to June 2012. DHEA-S level was analysed in serum. The assessment tools included the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) and a modified Nordic musculoskeletal symptoms questionnaire. The relation between DHEA-S, individual characteristics, pain perception and psychological factors was assessed by means of multivariable linear regression analysis. There were 189 study participants. The study population was characterized by high reward and low effort. Pain perception in the neck, shoulder, upper limbs, upper back and lower back was reported by 42, 32, 19, 29 and 43% of people, respectively. In multivariable regression analysis, gender, age and pain perception in the shoulder and upper limbs were significantly related to serum DHEA-S. Effort and overcommitment were related to shoulder and neck pain but not to DHEA-S. The GHQ score was associated with pain perception in different body sites and inversely to DHEA-S but significance was lost in multivariable regression analysis. DHEA-S was associated with age, gender and perception of MS pain, while effort-reward imbalance dimensions and GHQ score failed to reach the statistical significance in multivariable regression analysis. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Relationship between central and peripheral atherosclerosis and left ventricular dysfunction in a community population.

PubMed

Tsao, Connie W; Gona, Philimon; Salton, Carol; Murabito, Joanne M; Oyama, Noriko; Danias, Peter G; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Manning, Warren J; Yeon, Susan B

2011-08-01

We aimed to determine the relationships between resting left ventricular (LV) wall motion abnormalities (WMAs), aortic plaque, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) in a community cohort. A total of 1726 Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort participants (806 males, 65 ± 9 years) underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance with quantification of aortic plaque volume and assessment of regional left ventricular systolic function. Claudication, lower extremity revascularization, and ankle-brachial index (ABI) were recorded at the most contemporaneous examination visit. WMAs were associated with greater aortic plaque burden, decreased ABI, and claudication in age- and sex-adjusted analyses (all p < 0.001), which were not significant after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, both the presence (p < 0.001) and volume of aortic plaque were associated with decreased ABI (p < 0.001). After multivariable adjustment, an ABI ≤ 0.9 or prior revascularization was associated with a threefold odds of aortic plaque (p = 0.0083). Plaque volume significantly increased with decreasing ABI in multivariable-adjusted analyses (p < 0.0001). In this free-living population, associations of WMAs with aortic plaque burden and clinical measures of PAD were attenuated after adjustment for coronary heart disease risk factors. Aortic plaque volume and ABI remained strongly negatively correlated after multivariable adjustment. Our findings suggest that the association between coronary heart disease and non-coronary atherosclerosis is explained by cardiovascular risk factors. Aortic atherosclerosis and PAD remain strongly associated after multivariable adjustment, suggesting shared mechanisms beyond those captured by traditional risk factors.

Multivariate spatial models of excess crash frequency at area level: case of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-10-01

Recently, areal models of crash frequency have being used in the analysis of various area-wide factors affecting road crashes. On the other hand, disease mapping methods are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the relative risk of the population at different spatial units. A natural next step is to combine these two approaches to estimate the excess crash frequency at area level as a measure of absolute crash risk. Furthermore, multivariate spatial models of crash severity are explored in order to account for both frequency and severity of crashes and control for the spatial correlation frequently found in crash data. This paper aims to extent the concept of safety performance functions to be used in areal models of crash frequency. A multivariate spatial model is used for that purpose and compared to its univariate counterpart. Full Bayes hierarchical approach is used to estimate the models of crash frequency at canton level for Costa Rica. An intrinsic multivariate conditional autoregressive model is used for modeling spatial random effects. The results show that the multivariate spatial model performs better than its univariate counterpart in terms of the penalized goodness-of-fit measure Deviance Information Criteria. Additionally, the effects of the spatial smoothing due to the multivariate spatial random effects are evident in the estimation of excess equivalent property damage only crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Stable Finite-Difference Scheme for Population Growth and Diffusion on a Map

PubMed Central

Callegari, S.; Lake, G. R.; Tkachenko, N.; Weissmann, J. D.; Zollikofer, Ch. P. E.

2017-01-01

We describe a general Godunov-type splitting for numerical simulations of the Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovski–Piskunov growth and diffusion equation on a world map with Neumann boundary conditions. The procedure is semi-implicit, hence quite stable. Our principal application for this solver is modeling human population dispersal over geographical maps with changing paleovegetation and paleoclimate in the late Pleistocene. As a proxy for carrying capacity we use Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to predict times for human arrival in the Americas. PMID:28085882

Stationary Anonymous Sequential Games with Undiscounted Rewards.

PubMed

Więcek, Piotr; Altman, Eitan

Stationary anonymous sequential games with undiscounted rewards are a special class of games that combine features from both population games (infinitely many players) with stochastic games. We extend the theory for these games to the cases of total expected reward as well as to the expected average reward. We show that in the anonymous sequential game equilibria correspond to the limits of those of related finite population games as the number of players grows to infinity. We provide examples to illustrate our results.

Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

Cancer.gov

The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

A Stable Finite-Difference Scheme for Population Growth and Diffusion on a Map.

PubMed

Petersen, W P; Callegari, S; Lake, G R; Tkachenko, N; Weissmann, J D; Zollikofer, Ch P E

2017-01-01

We describe a general Godunov-type splitting for numerical simulations of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov growth and diffusion equation on a world map with Neumann boundary conditions. The procedure is semi-implicit, hence quite stable. Our principal application for this solver is modeling human population dispersal over geographical maps with changing paleovegetation and paleoclimate in the late Pleistocene. As a proxy for carrying capacity we use Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to predict times for human arrival in the Americas.

A traditional Sami diet score as a determinant of mortality in a general northern Swedish population.

PubMed

Nilsson, Lena Maria; Winkvist, Anna; Brustad, Magritt; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Johansson, Ingegerd; Lenner, Per; Lindahl, Bernt; Van Guelpen, Bethany

2012-05-04

To examine the relationship between "traditional Sami" dietary pattern and mortality in a general northern Swedish population. Population-based cohort study. We examined 77,319 subjects from the Västerbotten Intervention Program (VIP) cohort. A traditional Sami diet score was constructed by adding 1 point for intake above the median level of red meat, fatty fish, total fat, berries and boiled coffee, and 1 point for intake below the median of vegetables, bread and fibre. Hazard ratios (HR) for mortality were calculated by Cox regression. Increasing traditional Sami diet scores were associated with slightly elevated all-cause mortality in men [Multivariate HR per 1-point increase in score 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07), p=0.018], but not for women [Multivariate HR 1.03 (95% CI 0.99-1.07), p=0.130]. This increased risk was approximately equally attributable to cardiovascular disease and cancer, though somewhat more apparent for cardiovascular disease mortality in men free from diabetes, hypertension and obesity at baseline [Multivariate HR 1.10 (95% CI 1.01-1.20), p=0.023]. A weak increased all-cause mortality was observed in men with higher traditional Sami diet scores. However, due to the complexity in defining a "traditional Sami" diet, and the limitations of our questionnaire for this purpose, the study should be considered exploratory, a first attempt to relate a "traditional Sami" dietary pattern to health endpoints. Further investigation of cohorts with more detailed information on dietary and lifestyle items relevant for traditional Sami culture is warranted.

Are classic predictors of voltage valid in cardiac amyloidosis? A contemporary analysis of electrocardiographic findings.

PubMed

Sperry, Brett W; Vranian, Michael N; Hachamovitch, Rory; Joshi, Hariom; McCarthy, Meghann; Ikram, Asad; Hanna, Mazen

2016-07-01

Low voltage electrocardiography (ECG) coupled with increased ventricular wall thickness is the hallmark of cardiac amyloidosis. However, patient characteristics influencing voltage in the general population, including bundle branch block, have not been evaluated in amyloid heart disease. A retrospective analysis was performed of patients with newly diagnosed cardiac amyloidosis from 2002 to 2014. ECG voltage was calculated using limb (sum of QRS complex in leads I, II and III) and precordial (Sokolow: S in V1 plus R in V5-V6) criteria. The associations between voltage and clinical variables were tested using multivariable linear regression. A Cox model assessed the association of voltage with mortality. In 389 subjects (transthyretin ATTR 186, light chain AL 203), 30% had conduction delay (QRS >120ms). In those with narrow QRS, 68% met low limb, 72% low Sokolow and 57% both criteria, with lower voltages found in AL vs ATTR. LV mass index as well as other typical factors that impact voltage (age, sex, race, hypertension, BSA, and smoking) in the general population were not associated with voltage in this cardiac amyloidosis cohort. Patients with LBBB and IVCD had similar voltages when compared to those with narrow QRS. Voltage was significantly associated with mortality (p<0.001 for both criteria) after multivariable adjustment. Classic predictors of ECG voltage in the general population are not valid in cardiac amyloidosis. In this cohort, the prevalence estimates of ventricular conduction delay and low voltage are higher than previously reported. Voltage predicts mortality after multivariable adjustment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetes and work: 12-year national follow-up study of the association of diabetes incidence with socioeconomic group, age, gender and country of origin.

PubMed

Poulsen, Kjeld; Cleal, Bryan; Willaing, Ingrid

2014-12-01

To investigate the extent and socioeconomic distribution of incident diabetes among the Danish working-age population. The Danish National Diabetes Register was linked with socioeconomic and population-based registers covering the entire population. We analysed the 12-year diabetes incidence using multivariate Poisson regression for 2,086,682 people, adjusting for gender, 10-year age groups, main population groups defined by country of origin, and seven socioeconomic groups: professionals, managers, technicians, workers skilled at basic level, unskilled workers, unemployed and pensioners. The crude 12-year incidence of diabetes was 5.8%. The saturated multivariate model, adjusted for gender, age, country of origin and socioeconomic status; showed a relative risk (RR) for diabetes incidence of 1.44 for male (reference: female), 3.95 for the age range of 50-59 years (reference: 30-39 years), 2.07 for unskilled workers (reference: professionals) and 2.15 for people from countries of 'non-Western origin' (reference: Danish origin). Diabetes incidence increases with age, male gender and low socioeconomic status; and also among people from countries of 'non-Western origin'. The results indicate that getting a more senior workforce will substantially increase the proportion of workers with diabetes, especially among already vulnerable groups. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Seroepidemiology of HBV infection in South-East of iran; a population based study.

PubMed

Salehi, M; Alavian, S M; Tabatabaei, S V; Izadi, Sh; Sanei Moghaddam, E; Amini Kafi-Abad, S; Gharehbaghian, A; Khosravi, S; Abolghasemi, H

2012-05-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major risk factor of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma affecting billions of people globally. Since information on its prevalence in general population is mandatory for formulating effective policies, this population based serological survey was conducted in Sistan and Baluchistan, where no previous epidemiological data were available. Using random cluster sampling 3989 healthy subjects were selected from 9 districts of Sistan and Baluchistan Province in southeastern Iran. The subjects' age ranged from 6 to 65 years old. Serum samples were tested for HBcAb, HBsAg. Screening tests were carried out by the third generation of ELISA. Various risk factors were recorded and multivariate analysis was performed. The prevalence of HBsAg and HBcAb in Sistan and Baluchistan was 3.38% (95% CI 2.85; 3.98) and 23.58% (95% CI 22.29; 24.93) respectively. We found 8 cases of positive anti-HDV antibody. Predictors of HBsAg or HBcAb in multivariate analysis were age, marital status and addiction. The rate of HBV infection in Sistan and Baluchistan was higher than other parts of Iran. Approximately 25% of general population in this province had previous exposure to HBV and 3% were HBsAg carriers. Intrafamilial and addiction were major routes of HBV transmission in this province.

Imputation of missing genotypes from sparse to high density using long-range phasing

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Related individuals share potentially long chromosome segments that trace to a common ancestor. A phasing algorithm (ChromoPhase) that utilizes this characteristic of finite populations was developed to phase large sections of a chromosome. In addition to phasing, ChromoPhase imputes missing genotyp...

Repeated Random Sampling in Year 5

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Jane M.; English, Lyn D.

2016-01-01

As an extension to an activity introducing Year 5 students to the practice of statistics, the software "TinkerPlots" made it possible to collect repeated random samples from a finite population to informally explore students' capacity to begin reasoning with a distribution of sample statistics. This article provides background for the…

The Impact of Politics in Local Education: Navigating White Water

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Jane C.

2006-01-01

Today, administrators must assume a different mindset if public schools are to remain viable and functional. Changing populations resulting in heterogeneous communities, the diversity of community values, and the finite resources available to meet the infinite desires of a demanding constituency have created the necessity for political acumen on…

Estimation and Model Selection for Finite Mixtures of Latent Interaction Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Jui-Chen

2011-01-01

Latent interaction models and mixture models have received considerable attention in social science research recently, but little is known about how to handle if unobserved population heterogeneity exists in the endogenous latent variables of the nonlinear structural equation models. The current study estimates a mixture of latent interaction…

Epidemiology of Vocal Fold Paralyses After Total Thyroidectomy for Well-Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in Medicare Population

PubMed Central

Francis, David O.; Pearce, Elizabeth C.; Ni, Shenghua; Garrett, C. Gaelyn; Penson, David F.

2014-01-01

Objectives Population-level incidence of vocal fold paralysis after thyroidectomy for well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma (WDTC) is not known. This study aimed to measure longitudinal incidence of post-operative vocal fold paralyses and need for directed interventions in the Medicare population undergoing total thyroidectomy for WDTC. Study Design Retrospective Cohort Study Setting United States Population Subjects Medicare Beneficiaries Methods SEER-Medicare data (1991 – 2009) were used to identify beneficiaries who underwent total thyroidectomy for WDTC. Incident vocal fold paralyses and directed interventions were identified. Multivariate analyses were used to determine factors associated with odds of developing these surgical complications. Results Of 5,670 total thyroidectomies for WDTC, 9.5% were complicated by vocal fold paralysis [8.2% unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP); 1.3% bilateral vocal fold paralysis (BVFP)]. Rate of paralyses decreased 5% annually from 1991 to 2009 (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93 – 0.97; p<0.001). Overall, 22% of patients with vocal fold paralysis required surgical intervention (UVFP 21%, BVFP 28%). Multivariate logistic regression revealed odds of post-thyroidectomy paralysis increased with each additional year of age, with non-Caucasian race, particular histologic types, advanced stage, and in particular registry regions. Conclusions Annual rates of post-thyroidectomy vocal fold paralyses are decreasing among Medicare beneficiaries with WDTC. High incidence in this aged population is likely due to a preponderance of temporary paralyses, which is supported by the need for directed intervention in less than a quarter of affected patients. Further population-based studies are needed to refine the population incidence and risk factors for paralyses in the aging population. PMID:24482349

Disordered crystals from first principles I: Quantifying the configuration space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühne, Thomas D.; Prodan, Emil

2018-04-01

This work represents the first chapter of a project on the foundations of first-principle calculations of the electron transport in crystals at finite temperatures. We are interested in the range of temperatures, where most electronic components operate, that is, room temperature and above. The aim is a predictive first-principle formalism that combines ab-initio molecular dynamics and a finite-temperature Kubo-formula for homogeneous thermodynamic phases. The input for this formula is the ergodic dynamical system (Ω , G , dP) defining the thermodynamic crystalline phase, where Ω is the configuration space for the atomic degrees of freedom, G is the space group acting on Ω and dP is the ergodic Gibbs measure relative to the G-action. The present work develops an algorithmic method for quantifying (Ω , G , dP) from first principles. Using the silicon crystal as a working example, we find the Gibbs measure to be extremely well characterized by a multivariate normal distribution, which can be quantified using a small number of parameters. The latter are computed at various temperatures and communicated in the form of a table. Using this table, one can generate large and accurate thermally-disordered atomic configurations to serve, for example, as input for subsequent simulations of the electronic degrees of freedom.

Design of an essentially non-oscillatory reconstruction procedure in finite-element type meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abgrall, Remi

1992-01-01

An essentially non oscillatory reconstruction for functions defined on finite element type meshes is designed. Two related problems are studied: the interpolation of possibly unsmooth multivariate functions on arbitary meshes and the reconstruction of a function from its averages in the control volumes surrounding the nodes of the mesh. Concerning the first problem, the behavior of the highest coefficients of two polynomial interpolations of a function that may admit discontinuities of locally regular curves is studied: the Lagrange interpolation and an approximation such that the mean of the polynomial on any control volume is equal to that of the function to be approximated. This enables the best stencil for the approximation to be chosen. The choice of the smallest possible number of stencils is addressed. Concerning the reconstruction problem, two methods were studied: one based on an adaptation of the so called reconstruction via deconvolution method to irregular meshes and one that lies on the approximation on the mean as defined above. The first method is conservative up to a quadrature formula and the second one is exactly conservative. The two methods have the expected order of accuracy, but the second one is much less expensive than the first one. Some numerical examples are given which demonstrate the efficiency of the reconstruction.

Social exclusion in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wu, Te; Wang, Long

2015-04-01

Social exclusion, keeping free riders from benefit sharing, plays an important role in sustaining cooperation in our world. Here we propose two different exclusion regimes, namely, peer exclusion and pool exclusion, to investigate the evolution of social exclusion in finite populations. In the peer exclusion regime, each excluder expels all the defectors independently, and thus bears the total cost on his own, while in the pool exclusion regime, excluders spontaneously form an institution to carry out rejection of the free riders, and each excluder shares the cost equally. In a public goods game containing only excluders and defectors, it is found that peer excluders outperform pool excluders if the exclusion costs are small, and the situation is converse once the exclusion costs exceed some critical points, which holds true for all the selection intensities and different update rules. Moreover, excluders can dominate the whole population under a suitable parameters range in the presence of second-order free riders (cooperators), showing that exclusion has prominent advantages over common costly punishment. More importantly, our finding indicates that the group exclusion mechanism helps the cooperative union to survive under unfavorable conditions. Our results may give some insights into better understanding the prevalence of such a strategy in the real world and its significance in sustaining cooperation.

Evaluating the Impact of CETA on Participant Earnings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryant, Edward C.; Rupp, Kalman

1987-01-01

Estimates of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act's net impact on participant earnings, using Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey data, were compared to a similar sample from the Current Population Survey. The use of multivariate matching and weighting yielded acceptable results. (GDC)

Heterogeneous voter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuda, Naoki; Gibert, N.; Redner, S.

2010-07-01

We introduce the heterogeneous voter model (HVM), in which each agent has its own intrinsic rate to change state, reflective of the heterogeneity of real people, and the partisan voter model (PVM), in which each agent has an innate and fixed preference for one of two possible opinion states. For the HVM, the time until consensus is reached is much longer than in the classic voter model. For the PVM in the mean-field limit, a population evolves to a preference-based state, where each agent tends to be aligned with its internal preference. For finite populations, discrete fluctuations ultimately lead to consensus being reached in a time that scales exponentially with population size.

Stochastic evolutionary dynamics in minimum-effort coordination games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2016-08-01

The minimum-effort coordination game draws recently more attention for the fact that human behavior in this social dilemma is often inconsistent with the predictions of classical game theory. Here, we combine evolutionary game theory and coalescence theory to investigate this game in finite populations. Both analytic results and individual-based simulations show that effort costs play a key role in the evolution of contribution levels, which is in good agreement with those observed experimentally. Besides well-mixed populations, set structured populations have also been taken into consideration. Therein we find that large number of sets and moderate migration rate greatly promote effort levels, especially for high effort costs.

Risk Factors for Central Serous Chorioretinopathy: Multivariate Approach in a Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Chatziralli, Irini; Kabanarou, Stamatina A; Parikakis, Efstratios; Chatzirallis, Alexandros; Xirou, Tina; Mitropoulos, Panagiotis

2017-07-01

The purpose of this prospective study was to investigate the potential risk factors associated independently with central serous retinopathy (CSR) in a Greek population, using multivariate approach. Participants in the study were 183 consecutive patients diagnosed with CSR and 183 controls, matched for age. All participants underwent complete ophthalmological examination and information regarding their sociodemographic, clinical, medical and ophthalmological history were recorded, so as to assess potential risk factors for CSR. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed. Univariate analysis showed that male sex, high educational status, high income, alcohol consumption, smoking, hypertension, coronary heart disease, obstructive sleep apnea, autoimmune disorders, H. pylori infection, type A personality and stress, steroid use, pregnancy and hyperopia were associated with CSR, while myopia was found to protect from CSR. In multivariate analysis, alcohol consumption, hypertension, coronary heart disease and autoimmune disorders lost their significance, while the remaining factors were all independently associated with CSR. It is important to take into account the various risk factors for CSR, so as to define vulnerable groups and to shed light into the pathogenesis of the disease.

Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, J. D.; Feiveson, A. H.

2014-01-01

This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.

What's Hot and What's Not: Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Ten Labile Trace Elements in H-Chondrite Population Pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, S. F.; Lipschutz, M. E.

1993-07-01

Dodd et al. [1] found that, from their circumstances of fall, 17 H chondrites ("H Cluster 1") which fell in May, from 1855 to 1895, are distinguishable from other H chondrite falls and apparently derive from a co-orbital stream of meteoroids. From data for 10 moderately to highly labile trace elements (Rb, Ag, Se, Cs, Te, Zn, Cd, Bi, Tl, In), they used two multivariate statistical techniques--linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression--to demonstrate that 1. 13 H Cluster 1 chondrites are compositionally distinguishable from 45 other H chondrite falls, probably because of differences in thermal histories of the meteorites' parent materials; 2. The reality of the compositional differences between the populations of falls are beyond any reasonable statistical doubt. 3. The compositional differences are inconsistent with the notion that the results reflect analytical bias. We have used these techniques to assess analogous data for various H chondrite populations [2-4] with results that are listed in Table 1. These data indicate that 1. There is no statistical reason to believe that random populations from Victoria Land, Antarctica, differ compositionally from each other. 2. There is significant statistical reason to believe that the H chondrite population recovered from Victoria Land, Antarctica, differs compositionally from that from Queen Maud Land, Antarctica, and from falls. 3. There is no reason to believe that the H chondrite population recovered from Queen Maud Land, Antarctica, differs compositionally from falls. 4. These observations can be made either by data obtained by one analyst or several. These results, coupled with earlier ones [5], demonstrate that trivial explanations cannot explain compositional differences involving labile trace elements in pairs of H chondrite populations. These differences must then reflect differences of preterrestrial thermal histories of the meteorites' parent materials. Acceptance of these differences as preterrestrial has led to predictions subsequently verified by others (meteoroid and asteroid stream discoveries, differencesin thermoluminescence or TL). We predict that a TL difference will be seen between the populations of falls defined by Dodd et al. [1]. References: [1] Dodd R. T. et al. (1993) JGR, submitted. [2] Lingner D. W. et al. (1987) GCA, 51, 727-739. [3] Dennison J. E. and Lipschutz M. E. (1987) GCA, 51, 741-754. [4] Wolf S. F. and Lipschutz M. E. (1993) in Advances in Analytical Geochemistry (M. Hyman and M. Rowe, eds.), in press. [5] Wang M.-S. et al. (1992) Meteoritics, 27, 303. [6] Lipschutz M. E. and Samuels S. M. (1991) GCA, 55, 19-47. Table 1, which appears in the hard copy, shows a multivariate statistical analysis of H chondrite population pairs using 10 labile trace elements (number of meteorites in population in parentheses).

Epidemiology of uveitis among the Chinese population in Taiwan: a population-based study.

PubMed

Hwang, De-Kuang; Chou, Yiing-Jeng; Pu, Cheng-Yun; Chou, Pesus

2012-11-01

This study aimed to investigate the incidence and prevalence of uveitis in Taiwan, and then analyzed the risk factors related to uveitis using multivariate regression. Population-based cohort study using medical claims data. We randomly selected 1 000 000 residents from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. All participants with correct registry data (96%) were included in the study. The study period was from 2000 to 2008. All types of uveitis were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification diagnostic codes. The annual incidence and cumulative prevalence of uveitis were calculated. A univariate and a multivariate Poisson regression were used to determine the risk factors associated with uveitis. The first diagnosis of uveitis noted during the study period. The annual cumulative incidence rate of uveitis ranged from 102.2 to 122.0 cases per 100 000 persons over the study period, and the average incidence density was 111.3 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 108.4-114.1). The cumulative prevalence was found to have increased from 318.8 cases per 100 000 persons in 2003 to 622.7 cases per 100 000 persons in 2008. Anterior uveitis was the most common location and accounted for 77.7% of all incident cases, which was followed by panuveitis, posterior uveitis, and intermediate uveitis. Multivariate regression analysis showed that males, the elderly, and individuals who lived in an urban area had higher incidence rates for uveitis. The epidemiology of uveitis in Taiwan differs from most previous studies in other countries. The incidence of uveitis in Taiwan has increased significantly recently. The elderly and individuals living in urban areas are the populations that are most commonly affected by uveitis. These findings are consistent with suggestions found in several recent studies. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Depressive symptoms in HIV-infected and seronegative control subjects in Cameroon: Effect of age, education and gender

PubMed Central

Kanmogne, Georgette D.; Qiu, Fang; Ntone, Félicien E.; Fonsah, Julius Y.; Njamnshi, Dora M.; Kuate, Callixte T.; Doh, Roland F.; Kengne, Anne M.; Tagny, Claude T.; Nchindap, Emilienne; Kenmogne, Léopoldine; Mbanya, Dora; Cherner, Mariana; Heaton, Robert K.; Njamnshi, Alfred K.

2017-01-01

Depression is a leading cause of HIV/AIDS disease burden; it worsens health outcomes and quality of life. Addressing this problem requires accurate quantification of the extra burden of depression to HIV/AIDS in a given population, and knowledge of the baseline depression prevalence in the general population. There has been no previous study of depression in the general Cameroonian population. The current study attempts to address that important need. We used the Beck Depression Inventory-II to assess the prevalence and severity of depressive symptoms in 270 HIV-infected and seronegative Cameroonians. Univariate analyses showed a trend toward higher depressive symptoms among cases, compared to controls (p = 0.055), and among older subjects (>40 years), compared to younger subjects (≤40 years) (p = 0.059). Analysis of depression severity showed that 33.73% of cases had moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, compared to 19.8% of controls (p<0.01). However, multivariable negative binomial regression analyses showed no effect of age, HIV status, CD4 levels, viral loads, ART, or opportunistic infections on the risk of depressive symptoms. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed significantly higher risk of depressive symptoms among females compared to males; this was significant for both female controls and female cases. Female cases had significantly higher CD4 cell counts and lower viral loads, compared to males. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed that lower education (≤10 years) was associated with increased risk of depressive symptoms. This study shows a high prevalence of depressive symptoms among seronegative controls and HIV-infected Cameroonians. Integrating care for mental disorders such as depression into primary health care and existing HIV/AIDS treatment programs in Cameroon may improve the wellbeing of the general population and could lower the HIV/AIDS burden. PMID:28231258

Depressive symptoms in HIV-infected and seronegative control subjects in Cameroon: Effect of age, education and gender.

PubMed

Kanmogne, Georgette D; Qiu, Fang; Ntone, Félicien E; Fonsah, Julius Y; Njamnshi, Dora M; Kuate, Callixte T; Doh, Roland F; Kengne, Anne M; Tagny, Claude T; Nchindap, Emilienne; Kenmogne, Léopoldine; Mbanya, Dora; Cherner, Mariana; Heaton, Robert K; Njamnshi, Alfred K

2017-01-01

Depression is a leading cause of HIV/AIDS disease burden; it worsens health outcomes and quality of life. Addressing this problem requires accurate quantification of the extra burden of depression to HIV/AIDS in a given population, and knowledge of the baseline depression prevalence in the general population. There has been no previous study of depression in the general Cameroonian population. The current study attempts to address that important need. We used the Beck Depression Inventory-II to assess the prevalence and severity of depressive symptoms in 270 HIV-infected and seronegative Cameroonians. Univariate analyses showed a trend toward higher depressive symptoms among cases, compared to controls (p = 0.055), and among older subjects (>40 years), compared to younger subjects (≤40 years) (p = 0.059). Analysis of depression severity showed that 33.73% of cases had moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, compared to 19.8% of controls (p<0.01). However, multivariable negative binomial regression analyses showed no effect of age, HIV status, CD4 levels, viral loads, ART, or opportunistic infections on the risk of depressive symptoms. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed significantly higher risk of depressive symptoms among females compared to males; this was significant for both female controls and female cases. Female cases had significantly higher CD4 cell counts and lower viral loads, compared to males. Both univariate and multivariable regression analyses showed that lower education (≤10 years) was associated with increased risk of depressive symptoms. This study shows a high prevalence of depressive symptoms among seronegative controls and HIV-infected Cameroonians. Integrating care for mental disorders such as depression into primary health care and existing HIV/AIDS treatment programs in Cameroon may improve the wellbeing of the general population and could lower the HIV/AIDS burden.

Fast Genome-Wide QTL Association Mapping on Pedigree and Population Data.

PubMed

Zhou, Hua; Blangero, John; Dyer, Thomas D; Chan, Kei-Hang K; Lange, Kenneth; Sobel, Eric M

2017-04-01

Since most analysis software for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) currently exploit only unrelated individuals, there is a need for efficient applications that can handle general pedigree data or mixtures of both population and pedigree data. Even datasets thought to consist of only unrelated individuals may include cryptic relationships that can lead to false positives if not discovered and controlled for. In addition, family designs possess compelling advantages. They are better equipped to detect rare variants, control for population stratification, and facilitate the study of parent-of-origin effects. Pedigrees selected for extreme trait values often segregate a single gene with strong effect. Finally, many pedigrees are available as an important legacy from the era of linkage analysis. Unfortunately, pedigree likelihoods are notoriously hard to compute. In this paper, we reexamine the computational bottlenecks and implement ultra-fast pedigree-based GWAS analysis. Kinship coefficients can either be based on explicitly provided pedigrees or automatically estimated from dense markers. Our strategy (a) works for random sample data, pedigree data, or a mix of both; (b) entails no loss of power; (c) allows for any number of covariate adjustments, including correction for population stratification; (d) allows for testing SNPs under additive, dominant, and recessive models; and (e) accommodates both univariate and multivariate quantitative traits. On a typical personal computer (six CPU cores at 2.67 GHz), analyzing a univariate HDL (high-density lipoprotein) trait from the San Antonio Family Heart Study (935,392 SNPs on 1,388 individuals in 124 pedigrees) takes less than 2 min and 1.5 GB of memory. Complete multivariate QTL analysis of the three time-points of the longitudinal HDL multivariate trait takes less than 5 min and 1.5 GB of memory. The algorithm is implemented as the Ped-GWAS Analysis (Option 29) in the Mendel statistical genetics package, which is freely available for Macintosh, Linux, and Windows platforms from http://genetics.ucla.edu/software/mendel. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Ramsey scheme for coherent population resonance detection in the optically dense medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barantsev, Konstantin; Litvinov, Andrey; Popov, Evgeniy

2018-04-01

This work is devoted to a theoretical investigation of the Ramsey method of detection of the coherent population trapping resonance in cold atomic clouds taking into account collective effects caused by finite optical depth of the considered clouds. The interaction of atoms with pulsed laser radiation is described in the formalism of density matrix by means of Maxwell-Bloch set of equations. The Ramsey signal of coherent population trapping resonance was calculated for the radiation passed through the medium and analyzed for different length of the atomic cloud. Also the population of excited level was calculated in dependence on the two-photon detuning and coordinate along the main optical axis. The light shift of sidebands and appearance of additional harmonics were discovered.

Statistical mixture design and multivariate analysis of inkjet printed a-WO3/TiO2/WOX electrochromic films.

PubMed

Wojcik, Pawel Jerzy; Pereira, Luís; Martins, Rodrigo; Fortunato, Elvira

2014-01-13

An efficient mathematical strategy in the field of solution processed electrochromic (EC) films is outlined as a combination of an experimental work, modeling, and information extraction from massive computational data via statistical software. Design of Experiment (DOE) was used for statistical multivariate analysis and prediction of mixtures through a multiple regression model, as well as the optimization of a five-component sol-gel precursor subjected to complex constraints. This approach significantly reduces the number of experiments to be realized, from 162 in the full factorial (L=3) and 72 in the extreme vertices (D=2) approach down to only 30 runs, while still maintaining a high accuracy of the analysis. By carrying out a finite number of experiments, the empirical modeling in this study shows reasonably good prediction ability in terms of the overall EC performance. An optimized ink formulation was employed in a prototype of a passive EC matrix fabricated in order to test and trial this optically active material system together with a solid-state electrolyte for the prospective application in EC displays. Coupling of DOE with chromogenic material formulation shows the potential to maximize the capabilities of these systems and ensures increased productivity in many potential solution-processed electrochemical applications.

A Quantitative Comparison of the Similarity between Genes and Geography in Worldwide Human Populations

PubMed Central

Wang, Chaolong; Zöllner, Sebastian; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2012-01-01

Multivariate statistical techniques such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling (MDS) have been widely used to summarize the structure of human genetic variation, often in easily visualized two-dimensional maps. Many recent studies have reported similarity between geographic maps of population locations and MDS or PCA maps of genetic variation inferred from single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). However, this similarity has been evident primarily in a qualitative sense; and, because different multivariate techniques and marker sets have been used in different studies, it has not been possible to formally compare genetic variation datasets in terms of their levels of similarity with geography. In this study, using genome-wide SNP data from 128 populations worldwide, we perform a systematic analysis to quantitatively evaluate the similarity of genes and geography in different geographic regions. For each of a series of regions, we apply a Procrustes analysis approach to find an optimal transformation that maximizes the similarity between PCA maps of genetic variation and geographic maps of population locations. We consider examples in Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, East Asia, and Central/South Asia, as well as in a worldwide sample, finding that significant similarity between genes and geography exists in general at different geographic levels. The similarity is highest in our examples for Asia and, once highly distinctive populations have been removed, Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results provide a quantitative assessment of the geographic structure of human genetic variation worldwide, supporting the view that geography plays a strong role in giving rise to human population structure. PMID:22927824

Sex estimation standards for medieval and contemporary Croats

PubMed Central

Bašić, Željana; Kružić, Ivana; Jerković, Ivan; Anđelinović, Deny; Anđelinović, Šimun

2017-01-01

Aim To develop discriminant functions for sex estimation on medieval Croatian population and test their application on contemporary Croatian population. Methods From a total of 519 skeletons, we chose 84 adult excellently preserved skeletons free of antemortem and postmortem changes and took all standard measurements. Sex was estimated/determined using standard anthropological procedures and ancient DNA (amelogenin analysis) where pelvis was insufficiently preserved or where sex morphological indicators were not consistent. We explored which measurements showed sexual dimorphism and used them for developing univariate and multivariate discriminant functions for sex estimation. We included only those functions that reached accuracy rate ≥80%. We tested the applicability of developed functions on modern Croatian sample (n = 37). Results From 69 standard skeletal measurements used in this study, 56 of them showed statistically significant sexual dimorphism (74.7%). We developed five univariate discriminant functions with classification rate 80.6%-85.2% and seven multivariate discriminant functions with an accuracy rate of 81.8%-93.0%. When tested on the modern population functions showed classification rates 74.1%-100%, and ten of them reached aimed accuracy rate. Females showed higher classification rates in the medieval populations, whereas males were better classified in the modern populations. Conclusion Developed discriminant functions are sufficiently accurate for reliable sex estimation in both medieval Croatian population and modern Croatian samples and may be used in forensic settings. The methodological issues that emerged regarding the importance of considering external factors in development and application of discriminant functions for sex estimation should be further explored. PMID:28613039

A quantitative comparison of the similarity between genes and geography in worldwide human populations.

PubMed

Wang, Chaolong; Zöllner, Sebastian; Rosenberg, Noah A

2012-08-01

Multivariate statistical techniques such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling (MDS) have been widely used to summarize the structure of human genetic variation, often in easily visualized two-dimensional maps. Many recent studies have reported similarity between geographic maps of population locations and MDS or PCA maps of genetic variation inferred from single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). However, this similarity has been evident primarily in a qualitative sense; and, because different multivariate techniques and marker sets have been used in different studies, it has not been possible to formally compare genetic variation datasets in terms of their levels of similarity with geography. In this study, using genome-wide SNP data from 128 populations worldwide, we perform a systematic analysis to quantitatively evaluate the similarity of genes and geography in different geographic regions. For each of a series of regions, we apply a Procrustes analysis approach to find an optimal transformation that maximizes the similarity between PCA maps of genetic variation and geographic maps of population locations. We consider examples in Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, East Asia, and Central/South Asia, as well as in a worldwide sample, finding that significant similarity between genes and geography exists in general at different geographic levels. The similarity is highest in our examples for Asia and, once highly distinctive populations have been removed, Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results provide a quantitative assessment of the geographic structure of human genetic variation worldwide, supporting the view that geography plays a strong role in giving rise to human population structure.

Contact investigation outcomes of Canadian-born adults with tuberculosis in Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in Alberta.

PubMed

Eisenbeis, Lisa; Gao, Zhiwei; Heffernan, Courtney; Yacoub, Wadieh; Long, Richard; Verma, Geetika

2016-06-27

Contact investigations are a critical component of tuberculosis control in high-income countries. However, the relative success of conventional methods by population group and place of residence is unknown. This study compares outcomes of contact investigations of Canadian-born Indigenous tuberculosis cases living on- and off-reserve with other Canadian-born cases. In a retrospective analysis, Canadian-born adult culture-positive pulmonary TB cases (2001-2010) were identified. Characteristics of source cases and their contacts were compared by population group. Outcomes of contact investigations, including completion of recommended investigations and preventive therapy, were compared in multivariable analysis. Of 171 cases of tuberculosis identified, 49 (29%) were Indigenous on-reserve, 62 (36%) Indigenous off-reserve, and 60 (35%) non-Indigenous or Canadian-born, "other". Indigenous people had more contacts identified per case compared to non-Indigenous patients. Case population group and smear status were the main predictors of the success of contact investigations. Of those recommended preventive therapy, close contacts of Indigenous cases on-reserve had the highest rate of completion, at 54%, vs. 41% and 37% for close contacts of Indigenous living off-reserve and Canadian-born "other" respectively (p = 0.02). Contacts of Indigenous cases living off-reserve had the greatest delay in assessment and the lowest rates of completion of assessment and preventive therapy. In multivariable analysis, population group, smear status of source case and proximity of contact were predictors of preventive therapy acceptance and/or completion. Significant differences in outcomes of contact investigations were observed between population groups. The higher priority of contacts of smear-positive cases appears to influence efficiency of service delivery, regardless of population group. Jurisdictional differences in program delivery, resource availability and perceived risk of transmission likely influence outcomes of contact investigations.

Seroprevalence of Helicobacter pylori in Hispanics living in Puerto Rico: A population-based study.

PubMed

González-Pons, María; Soto-Salgado, Marievelisse; Sevilla, Javier; Márquez-Lespier, Juan M; Morgan, Douglas; Pérez, Cynthia M; Cruz-Correa, Marcia

2018-02-01

Helicobacter pylori is an important etiologic factor for peptic ulcers and gastric cancer, one of the top ten leading causes of cancer death in Puerto Rico. However, the prevalence of H. pylori infections in this population was previously unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the seroprevalence of H. pylori and its associated risk factors in Puerto Rico. A cross-sectional study was designed using an existing population-based biorepository. Seropositivity was determined using the Premier ™ H. pylori immunoassay. Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence was estimated with 95% confidence using marginal standardization following logistic regression. To assess the risk factors associated with H. pylori seropositivity, a multivariable log-binomial model was fitted to estimate the prevalence ratio (PR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI). A total of 528 population-based serum samples were analyzed. The mean age of the study population was 41 ± 12 years, of whom 55.3% were females. The overall seroprevalence of H. pylori was 33.0% (95% CI = 28.3%-38.1%). Increasing age and having <12 years of education were significantly (P < .05) associated with H. pylori seropositivity in the multivariable model; however, residing in counties with low population density reached marginal significance (P = .085). We report that H. pylori infection is common among Hispanics living in Puerto Rico. The H. pylori seroprevalence observed in Puerto Rico is similar to the seroprevalence reported in the overall population of the United States. The association between H. pylori seroprevalence and the risk factors analyzed offers insight into the epidemiology of gastric cancer in Puerto Rico and warrants further investigation. © 2017 The Authors. Helicobacter Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Design-based Sample and Probability Law-Assumed Sample: Their Role in Scientific Investigation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojeda, Mario Miguel; Sahai, Hardeo

2002-01-01

Discusses some key statistical concepts in probabilistic and non-probabilistic sampling to provide an overview for understanding the inference process. Suggests a statistical model constituting the basis of statistical inference and provides a brief review of the finite population descriptive inference and a quota sampling inferential theory.…

Dimensionality and the sample unit

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2009-01-01

The sample unit and its implications for the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture's Forest Inventory and Analysis program are discussed in light of a generalized three-dimensional concept of continuous forest inventories. The concept views the sampled population as a spatial-temporal cube and the sample as a finite partitioning of the cube. The sample...

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices about tuberculosis and choice of communication channels in Thailand.

PubMed

Pengpid, Supa; Peltzer, Karl; Puckpinyo, Apa; Tiraphat, Sariyamon; Viripiromgool, Somchai; Apidechkul, Tawatchai; Sathirapanya, Chutarat; Leethongdee, Songkramchai; Chompikul, Jiraporn; Mongkolchati, Aroonsri

2016-08-02

The aim of this study was to assess tuberculosis (TB) knowledge, attitudes, and practices in both the general population and risk groups in Thailand. In a cross-sectional survey, a general population (n = 3,074) and family members of a TB patient (n = 559) were randomly selected, using stratified multistage sampling, and interviewed. The average TB knowledge score was 5.7 (maximum = 10) in the Thai and 5.1 in the migrant and ethnic minorities general populations, 6.3 in Thais with a family member with TB, and 5.4 in migrants and ethnic minorities with a family member with TB. In multivariate linear regression among the Thai general population, higher education, higher income, and knowing a person from the community with TB were all significantly associated with level of TB knowledge. Across the different study populations, 18.6% indicated that they had undergone a TB screening test. Multivariate logistic regression found that older age, lower education, being a migrant or belonging to an ethnic minority group, residing in an area supported by the Global Fund, better TB knowledge, having a family member with TB, and knowing other people in the community with TB was associated having been screened for TB. This study revealed deficiencies in the public health knowledge about TB, particularly among migrants and ethnic minorities in Thailand. Sociodemographic factors should be considered when designing communication strategies and TB prevention and control interventions.

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.

2012-01-01

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

Immigration and leisure-time physical inactivity: a population-based study.

PubMed

Lindström, M; Sundquist, J

2001-05-01

To investigate the relationship between migration status and sedentary leisure-time physical activity status in the city of Malmö, Sweden. The public health survey in 1994 is a cross-sectional study. A total of 5,600 individuals aged 20-80 completed a postal questionnaire. The response rate was 71%. The population was categorized according to country of birth. Multivariate analysis was performed using a logistic regression model to investigate the importance of possible confounders for the differences in sedentary leisure-time physical activity status. The prevalence of a sedentary leisure-time physical activity status was 18.1% among men and 26.7% among women. The odds ratio of a sedentary leisure-time physical activity status was significantly higher among men born in Arabic-speaking countries, in All other countries, and among women born in Yugoslavia, Poland, Arabic-speaking countries, and the category all other countries', compared to the reference group born in Sweden. The multivariate analysis including age, sex, and education did not alter these results. There were significant ethnic differences in leisure-time physical activity status. This is a CVD risk factor that could be affected by intervention programs aimed at specific ethnic subgroups of the population.

Population structure of the Korean gizzard shad, Konosirus punctatus (Clupeiformes, Clupeidae) using multivariate morphometric analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Se Hun; Kim, Jin-Koo

2016-03-01

The gizzard shad, Konosirus punctatus, is one of the most important fish species in Korea, China, Japan and Taiwan, and therefore the implementation of an appropriate population structure analysis is both necessary and fitting. In order to clarify the current distribution range for the two lineages of the Korean gizzard shad (Myoung and Kim 2014), we conducted a multivariate morphometric analysis by locality and lineage. We analyzed 17 morphometric and 5 meristic characters of 173 individuals, which were sampled from eight localities in the East Sea, the Yellow Sea and the Korean Strait. Unlike population genetics studies, the canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) results showed that the two morphotypes were clearly segregated by the center value "0" of CAN1, of which morphotype A occurred from the Yellow Sea to the western Korean Strait with negative values, and morphotype B occurred from the East Sea to the eastern Korean Strait with positive values even though there exists an admixture zone in the eastern Korean Strait. Further studies using more sensitive markers such as microsatellite DNA are required in order to define the true relationship between the two lineages.

Influence of diabetes on the risk of urothelial cancer according to body mass index: a 10-year nationwide population-based observational study.

PubMed

Bae, Woong Jin; Choi, Jin Bong; Moon, Hyong Woo; Park, Young Hyun; Cho, Hyuk Jin; Hong, Sung-Hoo; Lee, Ji Youl; Kim, Sae Woong; Han, Kyung-Do; Ha, U-Syn

2018-01-01

To examine the association between obesity and urothelial cancer, we used a representative data from the National Health Insurance System (NHIS). Participants included 826,170 men aged 20 years and older who experienced a health examination at least one time between 2004 and 2008. The study thus excluded people aged <20 years and women. We used a multivariate adjusted Cox regression analysis to examine the association between urothelial cancer and body mass index (BMI) via a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The age- or multivariable-adjusted HR for urothelial cancer was stratified by BMI. Men with a higher BMI were more likely to acquire urothelial cancer independent of variables. In the population with diabetes, there showed a considerable, increasing trend in the risk of urothelial cancer in the overweight and obesity group, compared to the group with the same BMI but without diabetes. This population-based study showed evidence of an association between obesity and the development of urothelial cancer, where the presence of diabetes increased the risk of urothelial cancer. Additionally, the higher the BMI, the higher the risk for urothelial cancer.

Association between Serum Testosterone and PSA Levels in Middle-Aged Healthy Men from the General Population.

PubMed

Elzanaty, Saad; Rezanezhad, Babak; Dohle, Gert

2017-04-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between serum testosterone and PSA levels in middle-aged healthy men from the general population. Based on 119 healthy men from the general population, total testosterone and PSA levels were measured. Demographic data regarding BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, smoking, and alcohol consumption were also collected. Men were classified into two groups according to testosterone levels; hypogonadal (testosterone ≤ 12 nmol/l), and eugonadal (testosterone > 12 nmol/l). The mean age of the subjects was 55 years (range 46-60 years). No significant correlation between serum testosterone and PSA levels was found (p = 0.60). PSA levels were similar when compared between hypogonadal and eugonadal men (1.4 µg/l vs. 1.4 µg/l, p = 0.90). When using a multivariate analysis model adjusted for the age of the subjects, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, smoking, and alcohol consumption, a positive significant association between testosterone and PSA levels was found (β = 0.03, 95 % CI = 0.003-0.062, p = 0.03). Only after adjusted multivariate analysis, our results indicated that testosterone was associated with PSA levels in middle-aged healthy men.

The Effectiveness of Cigarette Price and Smoke-Free Homes on Low-Income Smokers in the United States

PubMed Central

Vijayaraghavan, Maya; Messer, Karen; White, Martha M.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the effectiveness of state cigarette price and smoke-free homes on smoking behaviors of low-income and high-income populations in the United States. Methods. We used the 2006–2007 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. The primary outcomes were average daily cigarette consumption and successful quitting. We used multivariable regression to examine the association of cigarette price and smoke-free home policies on these outcomes. Results. High state cigarette price (pack price ≥ $4.50) was associated with lower consumption across all income levels. Although low-income individuals were least likely to adopt smoke-free homes, those who adopted them had consumption levels and successful quit rates that were similar to those among higher-income individuals. In multivariable analysis, both policies were independently associated with lower consumption, but only smoke-free homes were associated with sustained cessation at 90 days. Conclusions. High cigarette prices and especially smoke-free homes have the potential to reduce smoking behaviors among low-income individuals. Interventions are needed to increase adoption of smoke-free homes among low-income populations to increase cessation rates and prevent relapse. PMID:24134354

Mutation load and the extinction of large populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, A. T.

1996-02-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population that, after sufficient time, would reduce population size and so lead to extinction. This joint action of mutation load and population reduction is called Mutational Meltdown and is usually considered only to occur in small asexual or very small sexual populations. However, the problem of extinction cannot be discussed in a proper way if one previously assumes the existence of an equilibrium state, as initially discussed in this paper. By performing simulations in a genetically inspired model for time-changing populations, we show that mutational meltdown also occurs in large asexual populations and that the mean time to extinction is a nonmonotonic function of the selection coefficient. The stochasticity of the extinction process is also discussed. The extinction of small sexual N ∼ 700 populations is shown and our results confirm the assumption that the existence of recombination might be a powerful mechanism to avoid extinction.

Limiting similarity and niche theory for structured populations.

PubMed

Szilágyi, András; Meszéna, Géza

2009-05-07

We develop the theory of limiting similarity and niche for structured populations with finite number of individual states (i-state). In line with a previously published theory for unstructured populations, the niche of a species is specified by the impact and sensitivity niche vectors. They describe the population's impact on and sensitivity towards the variables involved in the population regulation. Robust coexistence requires sufficient segregation of the impact, as well as of the sensitivity niche vectors. Connection between the population-level impact and sensitivity and the impact/sensitivity of the specific i-states is developed. Each i-state contributes to the impact of the population proportional to its frequency in the population. Sensitivity of the population is composed of the sensitivity of the rates of demographic transitions, weighted by the frequency and by the reproductive value of the initial and final i-states of the transition, respectively. Coexistence in a multi-patch environment is studied. This analysis is interpreted as spatial niche segregation.

Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Intharathirat, Rotchana, E-mail: rotchana.in@gmail.com; Abdul Salam, P., E-mail: salam@ait.ac.th; Kumar, S., E-mail: kumar@ait.ac.th

Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developingmore » countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.« less

Combining Correlation Matrices: Simulation Analysis of Improved Fixed-Effects Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafdahl, Adam R.

2007-01-01

The originally proposed multivariate meta-analysis approach for correlation matrices--analyze Pearson correlations, with each study's observed correlations replacing their population counterparts in its conditional-covariance matrix--performs poorly. Two refinements are considered: Analyze Fisher Z-transformed correlations, and substitute better…

Distribution of the Determinant of the Sample Correlation Matrix: Monte Carlo Type One Error Rates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reddon, John R.; And Others

1985-01-01

Computer sampling from a multivariate normal spherical population was used to evaluate the type one error rates for a test of sphericity based on the distribution of the determinant of the sample correlation matrix. (Author/LMO)

Clinical Trial Participation and Time to Treatment Among Adolescents and Young Adults With Cancer: Does Age at Diagnosis or Insurance Make a Difference?

PubMed Central

Parsons, Helen M.; Harlan, Linda C.; Seibel, Nita L.; Stevens, Jennifer L.; Keegan, Theresa H.M.

2011-01-01

Purpose Because adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients with cancer have experienced variable improvement in survival over the past two decades, enhancing the quality and timeliness of cancer care in this population has emerged as a priority area. To identify current trends in AYA care, we examined patterns of clinical trial participation, time to treatment, and provider characteristics in a population-based sample of AYA patients with cancer. Methods Using the National Cancer Institute Patterns of Care Study, we used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate demographic and provider characteristics associated with clinical trial enrollment and time to treatment among 1,358 AYA patients with cancer (age 15 to 39 years) identified through the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Results In our study, 14% of patients age 15 to 39 years had enrolled onto a clinical trial; participation varied by type of cancer, with the highest participation in those diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (37%) and sarcoma (32%). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that uninsured, older patients and those treated by nonpediatric oncologists were less likely to enroll onto clinical trials. Median time from pathologic confirmation to first treatment was 3 days, but this varied by race/ethnicity and cancer site. In multivariate analyses, advanced cancer stage and outpatient treatment alone were associated with longer time from pathologic confirmation to treatment. Conclusion Our study identified factors associated with low clinical trial participation in AYA patients with cancer. These findings support the continued need to improve access to clinical trials and innovative treatments for this population, which may ultimately translate into improved survival. PMID:21931022

Pregnancy outcome of patients following bariatric surgery as compared with obese women: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shai, Daniel; Shoham-Vardi, Ilana; Amsalem, Doron; Silverberg, Daniel; Levi, Isaac; Sheiner, Eyal

2014-02-01

To evaluate pregnancy outcome and rates of anemia in patients following bariatric operation in comparison with obese pregnant women. A retrospective population-based study comparing pregnancy outcome of patients following bariatric with the obese population was conducted. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to control for confounders. To evaluate the change in hemoglobin levels, we included women who had one pregnancy before the bariatric surgery and one following the surgery or two pregnancies for women with obesity. This study included 326 women who had one pregnancy before and after a bariatric surgery and 1612 obese women who had at least two consecutive deliveries. Using a multivariable logistic regression model, controlling for confounders such as maternal age, patients following bariatric surgery had lower rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (OR 0.7; 95% CI 0.5-0.9; p = 0.49) and macrosomia (OR 0.3; 95% CI 0.2-0.5; p < 0.001) as compared with obese parturients. Women post bariatric surgery were more likely to be anemic (hemoglobin <10 g/dL) as compared to obese parturients (48% versus 37%; OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.9; p < 0.001). A significant decline in hemoglobin level was noted in patients following bariatric surgery (a decline of 0.33 g/dL versus 0.18 g/dL between two consecutive pregnancies of obese women). Using another multivariable model with anemia as the outcome variable, bariatric was noted as a risk factor for anemia (adjusted OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.13-1.86, p = 0.004). Women following bariatric surgery have lower risk for gestational diabetes mellitus and fetal macrosomia as compared with obese parturients. Nevertheless, bariatric surgery is a risk factor for anemia.

Prevalence of gastro-esophageal reflux disease and its risk factors in a community-based population in southern India.

PubMed

Wang, Hai-Yun; Leena, Kondarapassery Balakumaran; Plymoth, Amelie; Hergens, Maria-Pia; Yin, Li; Shenoy, Kotacherry Trivikrama; Ye, Weimin

2016-03-15

The prevalence of gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) varies widely around the world. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of GERD in a general population of southern India. An interview-based observational study was carried out in southern India during 2010 and early 2011 using a GERD questionnaire (GerdQ). In total 1072 participants were enrolled using a multi-stage cluster sampling method. Presence of GERD was defined as a score of ≥ 8. Logistic regression models were used to derive odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). The prevalence of GERD was 22.2 % (238/1072) in southern India, and was more common among older subjects and men. Overweight and obese subjects had a dose-dependent increased risk of GERD, compared to those with body mass index less than 25 (multivariate-adjusted OR = 1.4, 95 % CI 1.0-2.0; OR = 2.3, 95 % CI 1.3-4.1, respectively). People residing in urban community were more vulnerable to GERD than those in rural community (multivariate-adjusted OR = 1.8, 95 % CI 1.3-2.5). Similarly, those with a lower educational level appeared to have an increased risk of GERD. Further, those with a habit of pan masala chewing were more likely to develop GERD compared with those abstained from the habit (multivariate-adjusted OR = 2.0, 95 % CI 1.2-3.2). GERD is highly prevalent in southern India. Increasing age and BMI, an urban environment, lower educational level, and pan masala chewing appear to be risk factors of GERD symptoms for the studied population.

Reproductive history and progression of lower urinary tract symptoms in women: results from a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Maserejian, Nancy N; Curto, Teresa; Hall, Susan A; Wittert, Gary; McKinlay, John B

2014-04-01

To examine whether reproductive history and related conditions are associated with the development and persistence of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) other than urinary incontinence in a racially and/or ethnically diverse population-based sample of women. The Boston Area Community Health Survey enrolled 3201 women aged 30-79 years of black, Hispanic, or white race and/or ethnicity. Baseline and 5-year follow-up interviews were completed by 2534 women (conditional response rate, 83.4%). The association between reproductive history factors and population-weighted estimates of LUTS progression and persistence was tested using multivariable logistic regression models. Between baseline and 5-year follow-up, 23.9% women had LUTS progression. In age-adjusted models, women who had delivered ≥2 childbirths had higher odds of LUTS progression, but the association was completely accounted for by vaginal child delivery (eg, 2 vaginal childbirths vs none, multivariable-adjusted odds ratio = 2.21; 95% CI, 1.46-3.35; P <.001). No increased odds of LUTS progression were found for women with only 1 vaginal delivery or who only had cesarean section(s). Uterine prolapse was associated with higher odds of LUTS progression (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio = 3.05; 95% CI, 1.43-6.50; P = .004). Gestational diabetes was associated with approximately twice the odds of LUTS progression, but only among younger women (interaction P = .003). In this cohort study, ≥2 vaginal child deliveries, uterine prolapse, and among younger women, gestational diabetes were robust predictors of LUTS progression. Clinicians should assess the presence of bothersome urinary frequency, urgency, and voiding symptoms among women who have had multiple vaginal childbirths or gestational diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

Evolution of a Fluctuating Population in a Randomly Switching Environment.

PubMed

Wienand, Karl; Frey, Erwin; Mobilia, Mauro

2017-10-13

Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an environment that randomly switches between states of abundance and scarcity. Assuming that one strain grows slightly faster than the other, we consider two scenarios-one of pure resource competition, and one in which one strain provides a public good-and investigate how environmental randomness (external noise) coupled to demographic (internal) noise determines the population's fixation properties and size distribution. By analytical means and simulations, we show that these coupled sources of noise can significantly enhance the fixation probability of the slower-growing species. We also show that the population size distribution can be unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal and undergoes noise-induced transitions between these regimes when the rate of switching matches the population's growth rate.

Evolution of a Fluctuating Population in a Randomly Switching Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wienand, Karl; Frey, Erwin; Mobilia, Mauro

2017-10-01

Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an environment that randomly switches between states of abundance and scarcity. Assuming that one strain grows slightly faster than the other, we consider two scenarios—one of pure resource competition, and one in which one strain provides a public good—and investigate how environmental randomness (external noise) coupled to demographic (internal) noise determines the population's fixation properties and size distribution. By analytical means and simulations, we show that these coupled sources of noise can significantly enhance the fixation probability of the slower-growing species. We also show that the population size distribution can be unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal and undergoes noise-induced transitions between these regimes when the rate of switching matches the population's growth rate.

Finite-Size Scaling of a First-Order Dynamical Phase Transition: Adaptive Population Dynamics and an Effective Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemoto, Takahiro; Jack, Robert L.; Lecomte, Vivien

2017-03-01

We analyze large deviations of the time-averaged activity in the one-dimensional Fredrickson-Andersen model, both numerically and analytically. The model exhibits a dynamical phase transition, which appears as a singularity in the large deviation function. We analyze the finite-size scaling of this phase transition numerically, by generalizing an existing cloning algorithm to include a multicanonical feedback control: this significantly improves the computational efficiency. Motivated by these numerical results, we formulate an effective theory for the model in the vicinity of the phase transition, which accounts quantitatively for the observed behavior. We discuss potential applications of the numerical method and the effective theory in a range of more general contexts.

Mean-Potential Law in Evolutionary Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nałecz-Jawecki, Paweł; Miekisz, Jacek

2018-01-01

The Letter presents a novel way to connect random walks, stochastic differential equations, and evolutionary game theory. We introduce a new concept of a potential function for discrete-space stochastic systems. It is based on a correspondence between one-dimensional stochastic differential equations and random walks, which may be exact not only in the continuous limit but also in finite-state spaces. Our method is useful for computation of fixation probabilities in discrete stochastic dynamical systems with two absorbing states. We apply it to evolutionary games, formulating two simple and intuitive criteria for evolutionary stability of pure Nash equilibria in finite populations. In particular, we show that the 1 /3 law of evolutionary games, introduced by Nowak et al. [Nature, 2004], follows from a more general mean-potential law.

Theoretical quasar emission-line ratios. VII - Energy-balance models for finite hydrogen slabs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hubbard, E. N.; Puetter, R. C.

1985-01-01

The present energy balance calculations for finite, isobaric, hydrogen-slab quasar emission line clouds incorporate probabilistic radiative transfer (RT) in all lines and bound-free continua of a five-level continuum model hydrogen atom. Attention is given to the line ratios, line formation regions, level populations and model applicability results obtained. H lines and a variety of other considerations suggest the possibility of emission line cloud densities in excess of 10 to the 10th/cu cm. Lyman-beta/Lyman-alpha line ratios that are in agreement with observed values are obtained by the models. The observed Lyman/Balmer ratios can be achieved with clouds whose column depths are about 10 to the 22nd/sq cm.

Genetic and Diagnostic Biomarker Development in ASD Toddlers Using Resting State Functional MRI

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

schizophrenia .    Specifically,   we  used  source-­‐based  morphometry,  a  multivariate...variation  in  the   general  population,  and  verified  its  relevance  to   schizophrenia  in  an  independent  case...it  has  been  linked  to  affective  disorders  and   schizophrenia  in  multiple  populations.  Thus,

Expected Shannon Entropy and Shannon Differentiation between Subpopulations for Neutral Genes under the Finite Island Model.

PubMed

Chao, Anne; Jost, Lou; Hsieh, T C; Ma, K H; Sherwin, William B; Rollins, Lee Ann

2015-01-01

Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1) unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2) these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3) Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4) Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information ("Shannon differentiation") between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.

The role of polyploidy in shaping morphological diversity in natural populations of Phlox amabilis.

PubMed

Chansler, Matthew T; Ferguson, Carolyn J; Fehlberg, Shannon D; Prather, L Alan

2016-09-01

Studies of natural populations of polyploids increasingly highlight complex patterns of variation in ploidy and geographic distribution of cytotypes. As our understanding of the complexity of polyploidy grows, our understanding of the morphological correlates of polyploidy should expand as well. Here we examine in what ways, and to what degree, polyploidy affects the overall phenotype of a species across its distribution when there are three ploidies and geographic complexity in cytotype distribution. We measured 31 morphological traits from stems, leaves, and flowers from up to 25 individuals from 11 sites across the distribution of Phlox amabilis. Chromosome counts and flow cytometry confirmed and expanded upon earlier research documenting diploid, tetraploid, and hexaploid populations, and also identified a site with two ploidies. Univariate and multivariate statistics were used to characterize the morphological effects of polyploidy. We detected significant associations between morphology and ploidy in 11 traits spread across vegetative and reproductive structures. Generally, diploid individuals differed from polyploid individuals to a greater extent, and in different ways, than tetraploid and hexaploid plants differed from each other. Multivariate morphometrics demonstrated that the two primary axes of overall variation are driven by morphological traits associated with polyploidy, and individuals of different ploidies can be discriminated with 95% success. Polyploidy plays a major role in shaping overall morphological diversity in natural populations of P. amabilis. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Multivariate Analysis of Income Inequality: Data from 32 Nations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stack, Steven

To analyze income inequality in 32 nations, the research tested hypotheses based upon eight socioeconomic variables. The first seven variables, often tested in income research, were: political participation, industrial development, population growth, educational level, inflation rate, economic growth, and technological complexity. The eighth…

Knowledge of Abortion Laws and Services Among Low-Income Women in Three United States Cities.

PubMed

Lara, Diana; Holt, Kelsey; Peña, Melanie; Grossman, Daniel

2015-12-01

Low-income women and women of color are disproportionately affected by unintended pregnancy. Lack of knowledge of abortion laws and services is one of several factors likely to hinder access to services, though little research has documented knowledge in this population. Survey with convenience sample of 1,262 women attending primary care or full-scope Ob/Gyn clinics serving low-income populations in three large cities and multivariable analyses with four knowledge outcomes. Among all participants, 53% were first-generation immigrants, 25% identified the correct gestational age limit, 41% identified state parental consent laws, 67% knew partner consent is not required, and 55% knew where to obtain abortion services. In multivariable analysis, first-generation immigrants and primarily Spanish speakers were significantly less likely than higher-generation or primarily English speakers to display correct knowledge. Design and evaluation of strategies to improve knowledge about abortion, particularly among migrant women and non-primary English speakers, is needed.

Association of High-resolution Peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography (HR-pQCT) bone microarchitectural parameters with previous clinical fracture in older men: The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study.

PubMed

Fink, Howard A; Langsetmo, Lisa; Vo, Tien N; Orwoll, Eric S; Schousboe, John T; Ensrud, Kristine E

2018-05-08

High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) assesses both volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) and trabecular and cortical microarchitecture. However, studies of the association of HR-pQCT parameters with fracture history have been small, predominantly limited to postmenopausal women, often performed limited adjustment for potential confounders including for BMD, and infrequently assessed strength or failure measures. We used data from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study, a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling men aged ≥65 years, to evaluate the association of distal radius, proximal (diaphyseal) tibia and distal tibia HR-pQCT parameters measured at the Year 14 (Y14) study visit with prior clinical fracture. The primary HR-pQCT exposure variables were finite element analysis estimated failure loads (EFL) for each skeletal site; secondary exposure variables were total vBMD, total bone area, trabecular vBMD, trabecular bone area, trabecular thickness, trabecular number, cortical vBMD, cortical bone area, cortical thickness, and cortical porosity. Clinical fractures were ascertained from questionnaires administered every 4 months between MrOS study baseline and the Y14 visit and centrally adjudicated by masked review of radiographic reports. We used multivariate-adjusted logistic regression to estimate the odds of prior clinical fracture per 1 SD decrement for each Y14 HR-pQCT parameter. Three hundred forty-four (19.2%) of the 1794 men with available HR-pQCT measures had a confirmed clinical fracture between baseline and Y14. After multivariable adjustment, including for total hip areal BMD, decreased HR-pQCT finite element analysis EFL for each site was associated with significantly greater odds of prior confirmed clinical fracture and major osteoporotic fracture. Among other HR-pQCT parameters, decreased cortical area appeared to have the strongest independent association with prior clinical fracture. Future studies should explore associations of HR-pQCT parameters with specific fracture types and risk of incident fractures and the impact of age and sex on these relationships. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Finite element modelling of the foot for clinical application: A systematic review.

PubMed

Behforootan, Sara; Chatzistergos, Panagiotis; Naemi, Roozbeh; Chockalingam, Nachiappan

2017-01-01

Over the last two decades finite element modelling has been widely used to give new insight on foot and footwear biomechanics. However its actual contribution for the improvement of the therapeutic outcome of different pathological conditions of the foot, such as the diabetic foot, remains relatively limited. This is mainly because finite element modelling has only been used within the research domain. Clinically applicable finite element modelling can open the way for novel diagnostic techniques and novel methods for treatment planning/optimisation which would significantly enhance clinical practice. In this context this review aims to provide an overview of modelling techniques in the field of foot and footwear biomechanics and to investigate their applicability in a clinical setting. Even though no integrated modelling system exists that could be directly used in the clinic and considerable progress is still required, current literature includes a comprehensive toolbox for future work towards clinically applicable finite element modelling. The key challenges include collecting the information that is needed for geometry design, the assignment of material properties and loading on a patient-specific basis and in a cost-effective and non-invasive way. The ultimate challenge for the implementation of any computational system into clinical practice is to ensure that it can produce reliable results for any person that belongs in the population for which it was developed. Consequently this highlights the need for thorough and extensive validation of each individual step of the modelling process as well as for the overall validation of the final integrated system. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

PubMed

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

2017-08-01

The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

Shape fabric development in rigid clast populations under pure shear: The influence of no-slip versus slip boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulchrone, Kieran F.; Meere, Patrick A.

2015-09-01

Shape fabrics of elliptical objects in rocks are usually assumed to develop by passive behavior of inclusions with respect to the surrounding material leading to shape-based strain analysis methods belonging to the Rf/ϕ family. A probability density function is derived for the orientational characteristics of populations of rigid ellipses deforming in a pure shear 2D deformation with both no-slip and slip boundary conditions. Using maximum likelihood a numerical method is developed for estimating finite strain in natural populations deforming for both mechanisms. Application to a natural example indicates the importance of the slip mechanism in explaining clast shape fabrics in deformed sediments.

A Matter of Classes: Stratifying Health Care Populations to Produce Better Estimates of Inpatient Costs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B

2005-01-01

Objective To stratify traditional risk-adjustment models by health severity classes in a way that is empirically based, is accessible to policy makers, and improves predictions of inpatient costs. Data Sources Secondary data created from the administrative claims from all 829,356 children aged 21 years and under enrolled in Georgia Medicaid in 1999. Study Design A finite mixture model was used to assign child Medicaid patients to health severity classes. These class assignments were then used to stratify both portions of a traditional two-part risk-adjustment model predicting inpatient Medicaid expenditures. Traditional model results were compared with the stratified model using actuarial statistics. Principal Findings The finite mixture model identified four classes of children: a majority healthy class and three illness classes with increasing levels of severity. Stratifying the traditional two-part risk-adjustment model by health severity classes improved its R2 from 0.17 to 0.25. The majority of additional predictive power resulted from stratifying the second part of the two-part model. Further, the preference for the stratified model was unaffected by months of patient enrollment time. Conclusions Stratifying health care populations based on measures of health severity is a powerful method to achieve more accurate cost predictions. Insurers who ignore the predictive advances of sample stratification in setting risk-adjusted premiums may create strong financial incentives for adverse selection. Finite mixture models provide an empirically based, replicable methodology for stratification that should be accessible to most health care financial managers. PMID:16033501

Model-assisted survey regression estimation with the lasso

Treesearch

Kelly S. McConville; F. Jay Breidt; Thomas C. M. Lee; Gretchen G. Moisen

2017-01-01

In the U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, as in other natural resource surveys, many auxiliary variables are available for use in model-assisted inference about finite population parameters. Some of this auxiliary information may be extraneous, and therefore model selection is appropriate to improve the efficiency of the survey...

A Class of Population Covariance Matrices in the Bootstrap Approach to Covariance Structure Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Hayashi, Kentaro; Yanagihara, Hirokazu

2007-01-01

Model evaluation in covariance structure analysis is critical before the results can be trusted. Due to finite sample sizes and unknown distributions of real data, existing conclusions regarding a particular statistic may not be applicable in practice. The bootstrap procedure automatically takes care of the unknown distribution and, for a given…

[Mathematical models and epidemiological analysis].

PubMed

Gerasimov, A N

2010-01-01

The limited use of mathematical simulation in epidemiology is due not only to the difficulty of monitoring the epidemic process and identifying its parameters but also to the application of oversimplified models. It is shown that realistic reproduction of actual morbidity dynamics requires taking into account heterogeneity and finiteness of the population and seasonal character of pathogen transmission mechanism.

Photoacoustic and luminescence spectroscopy of benzil crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonno, B.; Laporte, J. L.; Rousset, Y.

1991-06-01

In the present work, both photoacoustic and luminescence techniques were employed to study molecular crystals. This paper presents an extension of the standard Rosencwaig-Gersho photoacoustic model to molecular crystals, which includes finite-deexcitation-time effects and excited-state populations. In the temperature range 100-300 K, the phosphorescence quantum yield and thermal diffusivity of benzil crystals were determined.

Multi-Class Analytical Models of the DECsystem-10 Job-Swapping Behavior.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

Mark of the Unicorn for developing Scribble, the best text formatter for a CP/M home computer I’ve ever seen, and for their patient help when I...requests for service will tend to decrease as the queue length grows . The finite population model, also known as the machine interference model, was

A fortran program for Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery sequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Davis, J.C.

1993-01-01

We have developed a program for performing Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery histories. A synthetic parent population of fields is generated as a finite sample from a distribution of specified form. The discovery sequence then is simulated by sampling without replacement from this parent population in accordance with a probabilistic discovery process model. The program computes a chi-squared deviation between synthetic and actual discovery sequences as a function of the parameters of the discovery process model, the number of fields in the parent population, and the distributional parameters of the parent population. The program employs the three-parameter log gamma model for the distribution of field sizes and employs a two-parameter discovery process model, allowing the simulation of a wide range of scenarios. ?? 1993.

Multilingualism and Creativity: A Multivariate Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fürst, Guillaume; Grin, François

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a contribution to the investigation of the relation between multilingualism and creativity. Past evidence of a correlation between multilingualism and creativity is reviewed in a generalist perspective, that is, without focusing on a specific population such as migrants or highly proficient bilinguals. This review is also…

Alcohol Use, Eating Patterns, and Weight Behaviors in a University Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Melissa C.; Lust, Katherine; Story, Mary; Ehlinger, Ed

2009-01-01

Objective: To explore associations between alcohol, alcohol-related eating, and weight-related health indicators. Methods: Cross-sectional, multivariate regression of weight behaviors, binge drinking, and alcohol-related eating, using self-reported student survey data (n = 3206 undergraduates/graduates). Results: Binge drinking was associated with…

Crossing fitness canyons by a finite population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saakian, David B.; Bratus, Alexander S.; Hu, Chin-Kun

2017-06-01

We consider the Wright-Fisher model of the finite population evolution on a fitness landscape defined in the sequence space by a path of nearly neutral mutations. We study a specific structure of the fitness landscape: One of the intermediate mutations on the mutation path results in either a large fitness value (climbing up a fitness hill) or a low fitness value (crossing a fitness canyon), the rest of the mutations besides the last one are neutral, and the last sequence has much higher fitness than any intermediate sequence. We derive analytical formulas for the first arrival time of the mutant with two point mutations. For the first arrival problem for the further mutants in the case of canyon crossing, we analytically deduce how the mean first arrival time scales with the population size and fitness difference. The location of the canyon on the path of sequences has a crucial role. If the canyon is at the beginning of the path, then it significantly prolongs the first arrival time; otherwise it just slightly changes it. Furthermore, the fitness hill at the beginning of the path strongly prolongs the arrival time period; however, the hill located near the end of the path shortens it. We optimize the first arrival time by applying a nonzero selection to the intermediate sequences. We extend our results and provide a scaling for the valley crossing time via the depth of the canyon and population size in the case of a fitness canyon at the first position. Our approach is useful for understanding some complex evolution systems, e.g., the evolution of cancer.

Multivariate analysis of the impacts of the turbine fuel JP-4 in a microcosm toxicity test with implications for the evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and risk assessment.

PubMed

Landis, W G; Matthews, R A; Markiewicz, A J; Matthews, G B

1993-12-01

Turbine fuels are often the only aviation fuel available in most of the world. Turbine fuels consist of numerous constituents with varying water solubilities, volatilities and toxicities. This study investigates the toxicity of the water soluble fraction (WSF) of JP-4 using the Standard Aquatic Microcosm (SAM). Multivariate analysis of the complex data, including the relatively new method of nonmetric clustering, was used and compared to more traditional analyses. Particular emphasis is placed on ecosystem dynamics in multivariate space.The WSF is prepared by vigorously mixing the fuel and the SAM microcosm media in a separatory funnel. The water phase, which contains the water-soluble fraction of JP-4 is then collected. The SAM experiment was conducted using concentrations of 0.0, 1.5 and 15% WSF. The WSF is added on day 7 of the experiments by removing 450 ml from each microcosm including the controls, then adding the appropriate amount of toxicant solution and finally bringing the final volume to 3 L with microcosm media. Analysis of the WSF was performed by purge and trap gas chromatography. The organic constituents of the WSF were not recoverable from the water column within several days of the addition of the toxicant. However, the impact of the WSF on the microcosm was apparent. In the highest initial concentration treatment group an algal bloom ensued, generated by the apparent toxicity of the WSF of JP-4 to the daphnids. As the daphnid populations recovered the algal populations decreased to control values. Multivariate methods clearly demonstrated this initial impact along with an additional oscillation seperating the four treatment groups in the latter segment of the experiment. Apparent recovery may be an artifact of the projections used to describe the multivariate data. The variables that were most important in distinguishing the four groups shifted during the course of the 63 day experiment. Even this simple microcosm exhibited a variety of dynamics, with implications for biomonitoring schemes and ecological risk assessments.

Application of the LQG/LTR technique to robust controller synthesis for a large flexible space antenna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, S. M.; Armstrong, E. S.; Sundararajan, N.

1986-01-01

The problem of synthesizing a robust controller is considered for a large, flexible space-based antenna by using the linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG)/loop transfer recovery (LTR) method. The study is based on a finite-element model of the 122-m hoop/column antenna, which consists of three rigid-body rotational modes and the first 10 elastic modes. A robust compensator design for achieving the required performance bandwidth in the presence of modeling uncertainties is obtained using the LQG/LTR method for loop-shaping in the frequency domain. Different sensor actuator locations are analyzed in terms of the pole/zero locations of the multivariable systems and possible best locations are indicated. The computations are performed by using the LQG design package ORACLS augmented with frequency domain singular value analysis software.

Truncated Calogero-Sutherland models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittman, S. M.; Beau, M.; Olshanii, M.; del Campo, A.

2017-05-01

A one-dimensional quantum many-body system consisting of particles confined in a harmonic potential and subject to finite-range two-body and three-body inverse-square interactions is introduced. The range of the interactions is set by truncation beyond a number of neighbors and can be tuned to interpolate between the Calogero-Sutherland model and a system with nearest and next-nearest neighbors interactions discussed by Jain and Khare. The model also includes the Tonks-Girardeau gas describing impenetrable bosons as well as an extension with truncated interactions. While the ground state wave function takes a truncated Bijl-Jastrow form, collective modes of the system are found in terms of multivariable symmetric polynomials. We numerically compute the density profile, one-body reduced density matrix, and momentum distribution of the ground state as a function of the range r and the interaction strength.

Energy Savings Through Thermally Efficient Crucible Technology: Fundamentals, Process Modeling, and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Wenwu; Pinto, Brian

2017-12-01

Melting and holding molten metals within crucibles accounts for a large portion of total energy demand in the resource-intensive nonferrous foundry industry. Multivariate mathematical modeling aided by detailed material characterization and advancements in crucible technologies can make a significant impact in the areas of cost-efficiency and carbon footprint reduction. Key thermal properties such as conductivity and specific heat capacity were studied to understand their influence on crucible furnace energy consumption during melting and holding processes. The effects of conductivity on thermal stresses and longevity of crucibles were also evaluated. With this information, accurate theoretical models using finite element analysis were developed to study total energy consumption and melting time. By applying these findings to recent crucible developments, considerable improvements in field performance were reported and documented as case studies in applications such as aluminum melting and holding.

East Greenland and Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus): adaptive variation between two populations using skull morphometrics as an indicator of environmental and genetic differences.

PubMed

Pertoldi, Cino; Sonne, Christian; Wiig, Øystein; Baagøe, Hans J; Loeschcke, Volker; Bechshøft, Thea Østergaard

2012-06-01

A morphometric study was conducted on four skull traits of 37 male and 18 female adult East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) collected 1892-1968, and on 54 male and 44 female adult Barents Sea polar bears collected 1950-1969. The aim was to compare differences in size and shape of the bear skulls using a multivariate approach, characterizing the variation between the two populations using morphometric traits as an indicator of environmental and genetic differences. Mixture analysis testing for geographic differentiation within each population revealed three clusters for Barents Sea males and three clusters for Barents Sea females. East Greenland consisted of one female and one male cluster. A principal component analysis (PCA) conducted on the clusters defined by the mixture analysis, showed that East Greenland and Barents Sea polar bear populations overlapped to a large degree, especially with regards to females. Multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA) showed no significant differences in morphometric means between the two populations, but differences were detected between clusters from each respective geographic locality. To estimate the importance of genetics and environment in the morphometric differences between the bears, a PCA was performed on the covariance matrix derived from the skull measurements. Skull trait size (PC1) explained approx. 80% of the morphometric variation, whereas shape (PC2) defined approx. 15%, indicating some genetic differentiation. Hence, both environmental and genetic factors seem to have contributed to the observed skull differences between the two populations. Overall, results indicate that many Barents Sea polar bears are morphometrically similar to the East Greenland ones, suggesting an exchange of individuals between the two populations. Furthermore, a subpopulation structure in the Barents Sea population was also indicated from the present analyses, which should be considered with regards to future management decisions. © 2012 The Authors.

Alcohol Drinking, Dyslipidemia, and Diabetes: A Population-based Prospective Cohort Study among Inner Mongolians in China.

PubMed

Liang, Zhu; Qiu, Qiao Yan; Wu, Jia Hui; Zhou, Jing Wen; Xu, Tian; Zhang, Ming Zhi; Zhang, Yong Hong; Zhang, Shao Yan

2016-08-01

No previous studies have evaluated the association between dyslipidemia, alcohol drinking, and diabetes in an Inner Mongolian population. We aimed to evaluate the co-effects of drinking and dyslipidemia on diabetes incidence in this population. The present study was based on 1880 participants from a population-based prospective cohort study among Inner Mongolians living in China. Participants were classified into four subgroups according to their drinking status and dyslipidemia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the association between alcohol drinking, dyslipidemia, and diabetes. During the follow-up period, 203 participants were found to have developed diabetes. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for the incidence of non-dyslipidemia/drinkers, dyslipidemia/non-drinkers, and dyslipidemia/drinkers in diabetic patients were 1.40 (0.82-2.37), 1.73 (1.17-2.55), and 2.31 (1.38-3.87), respectively, when compared with non-dyslipidemia/non-drinkers. The area under the ROC curve for a model containing dyslipidemia and drinking status along with conventional factors (AUC=0.746) was significantly (P=0.003) larger than the one containing only conventional factors (AUC=0.711). The present study showed that dyslipidemia was an independent risk factor for diabetes, and that drinkers with dyslipidemia had the highest risk of diabetes in the Mongolian population. These findings suggest that dyslipidemia and drinking status may be valuable in predicting diabetes incidence. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Demographic and High-Risk Behaviors associated with HPV and HPV Vaccine Awareness among Persons Aged 15-74 Years in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Reyes, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Díaz, Carola T; Tortolero-Luna, Guillermo; Colón, Hector M; Ortiz, Ana Patricia

2015-12-01

Studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) awareness in Puerto Rico (PR) are limited and are of interest given low HPV vaccine uptake in this population. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine factors associated to HPV and HPV vaccine awareness among persons aged 15-74 years living in Puerto Rico. We analysed data from a sub-sample of 1,476 men and women who participated in a 2008 population-based island-wide household survey and who completed an HPV module. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine factors associated with HPV and HPV vaccine awareness. Overall, 37.2% of participants had heard about HPV and 33.4% had heard of the vaccine. Multivariate logistic regression showed that women were more likely to have heard of HPV (OR adjusted: 4.54; 95% CI=3.45, 5.98) or of the HPV vaccine (OR adjusted: 6.15; 95% CI=4.50, 8.40) as compared to men. HPV awareness was also lower among older adults, persons with lower income and with lower educational attainment, those without children and smokers (p < 0.05). In 2008, two years after the introduction of the first HPV vaccine in PR and the US, public awareness about HPV infection and the HPV vaccine was lower in Hispanics in PR as compared to other populations. Identified high-risk populations should be targeted in preventive care strategies. Future efforts should increase HPV knowledge and vaccine use in this population in order to maximize the impact of vaccination programs.

Sex estimation of the tibia in modern Turkish: A computed tomography study.

PubMed

Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Er, Ali; Bozdag, Mustafa; Akcaoglu, Mustafa; Can, Ismail Ozgur; García-Donas, Julieta G; Kranioti, Elena F

2016-11-01

The utilization of computed tomography is beneficial for the analysis of skeletal remains and it has important advantages for anthropometric studies. The present study investigated morphometry of left tibia using CT images of a contemporary Turkish population. Seven parameters were measured on 203 individuals (124 males and 79 females) within the 19-92-years age group. The first objective of this study was to provide population-specific sex estimation equations for the contemporary Turkish population based on CT images. A second objective was to test the sex estimation formulae on Southern Europeans by Kranioti and Apostol (2015). Univariate discriminant functions resulted in classification accuracy that ranged from 66 to 86%. The best single variable was found to be upper epiphyseal breadth (86%) followed by lower epiphyseal breadth (85%). Multivariate discriminant functions resulted in classification accuracy for cross-validated data ranged from 79 to 86%. Applying the multivariate sex estimation formulae on Southern Europeans (SE) by Kranioti and Apostol in our sample resulted in very high classification accuracy ranging from 81 to 88%. In addition, 35.5-47% of the total Turkish sample is correctly classified with over 95% posterior probability, which is actually higher than the one reported for the original sample (25-43%). We conclude that the tibia is a very useful bone for sex estimation in the contemporary Turkish population. Moreover, our test results support the hypothesis that the SE formulae are sufficient for the contemporary Turkish population and they can be used safely for criminal investigations when posterior probabilities are over 95%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seroprevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Its Risk Factors in the West of Iran: A Population-based Study

PubMed Central

Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Tabatabaei, Seyed Vahid; Ghadimi, Teyyeb; Beedrapour, Farzam; Kafi-abad, Sedigheh Amini; Gharehbaghian, Ahmad; Abolghasemi, Hassan

2012-01-01

Introduction: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious global public health problem affecting billions of people globally. The lack of information of its seroprevalence among the general population is an obstacle for formulating effective policies to reduce the burden viral hepatitis. Therefore, this population based serological survey was conducted in Kurdistan province, where no epidemiological data was available to determine the prevalence and risk factors of HBV infection. Methods: 1613 healthy subjects were selected from all districts of Kurdistan province (in the western of Iran) using random cluster sampling. The subjects’ age ranged from 6 to 65 years old. Serum samples were tested for HBcAb, HBsAg and anti-HDV antibody. Screening tests were carried out by the third generation of ELISA. Various risk factors were recorded and multivariate analysis was performed. Results: The prevalence of HBsAg and HBcAb in Kurdistan was before 0.80% (95% CI 0.44; 1.34) and 5.02% (95% CI 4.03; 6.17), respectively. None of HBsAg carriers had positive anti-HDV antibody. Predictors of HBsAg or HBcAb in multivariate analysis were: older age and marriage. We did not find any significant differences between males and females. Conclusion: Our population based study suggests that intrafamilial HBV transmission plays a major role in HBV transmission in Kurdistan province. Furthermore, approximately 5% of general population in this province has prior exposure to HBV and less than 1% is HBsAg carriers. However, we could not find any case of HDV infection among them. PMID:23189228

Genetic characterization of Colombian Bahman cattle using microsatellites markers.

PubMed

Gómez, Y M; Fernandez, M; Rivera, D; Gómez, G; Bernal, J E

2013-07-01

Genetic structure and diversity of 3789 animals of the Brahman breed from 23 Colombian regions were assessed. Considering the Brahman Zebu cattle as a single population, the multilocus test based on the HW equilibrium, shows significant differences (P < 0.001). Genetic characterization made on the cattle population allowed to examine the genetic variability, calculating a H(o) = 0.6621. Brahman population in Colombia was a small subdivision within populations (F(it) = 0.045), a geographic subdivision almost non-existent or low differentiation (F(st) = 0.003) and the F(is) calculated (0.042) indicates no detriment to the variability in the population, despite the narrow mating takes place or there is a force that causes the variability is sustained without inbreeding actually affect the cattle population. The outcomes of multivariate analyses, Bayesian inferences and interindividual genetic distances suggested that there is no genetic sub-structure in the population, because of the high rate of animal migration among regions.

Population Analysis: Communicating in Context

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Thaxton, Sherry

2008-01-01

Providing accommodation to a widely varying user population presents a challenge to engineers and designers. It is often even difficult to quantify who is accommodated and who is not accommodated by designs, especially for equipment with multiple critical anthropometric dimensions. An approach to communicating levels of accommodation referred to as population analysis applies existing human factors techniques in novel ways. This paper discusses the definition of population analysis as well as major applications and case studies. The major applications of population analysis consist of providing accommodation information for multivariate problems and enhancing the value of feedback from human-in-the-loop testing. The results of these analyses range from the provision of specific accommodation percentages of the user population to recommendations of design specifications based on quantitative data. Such feedback is invaluable to designers and results in the design of products that accommodate the intended user population.

Analysis of Mining Terrain Deformation Characteristics with Deformation Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blachowski, Jan; Milczarek, Wojciech; Grzempowski, Piotr

2014-05-01

Mapping and prediction of mining related deformations of the earth surface is an important measure for minimising threat to surface infrastructure, human population, the environment and safety of the mining operation itself arising from underground extraction of useful minerals. The number of methods and techniques used for monitoring and analysis of mining terrain deformations is wide and increasing with the development of geographical information technologies. These include for example: terrestrial geodetic measurements, global positioning systems, remote sensing, spatial interpolation, finite element method modelling, GIS based modelling, geological modelling, empirical modelling using the Knothe theory, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic calculations and other. The aim of this paper is to introduce the concept of an integrated Deformation Information System (DIS) developed in geographic information systems environment for analysis and modelling of various spatial data related to mining activity and demonstrate its applications for mapping and visualising, as well as identifying possible mining terrain deformation areas with various spatial modelling methods. The DIS concept is based on connected modules that include: the spatial database - the core of the system, the spatial data collection module formed by: terrestrial, satellite and remote sensing measurements of the ground changes, the spatial data mining module for data discovery and extraction, the geological modelling module, the spatial data modeling module with data processing algorithms for spatio-temporal analysis and mapping of mining deformations and their characteristics (e.g. deformation parameters: tilt, curvature and horizontal strain), the multivariate spatial data classification module and the visualization module allowing two-dimensional interactive and static mapping and three-dimensional visualizations of mining ground characteristics. The Systems's functionality has been presented on the case study of a coal mining region in SW Poland where it has been applied to study characteristics and map mining induced ground deformations in a city in the last two decades of underground coal extraction and in the first decade after the end of mining. The mining subsidence area and its deformation parameters (tilt and curvature) have been calculated and the latter classified and mapped according to the Polish regulations. In addition possible areas of ground deformation have been indicated based on multivariate spatial data analysis of geological and mining operation characteristics with the geographically weighted regression method.

Self-referrals versus physician referrals: What new patient visit yields an actual surgical case?

PubMed

Herring, Eric Z; Peck, Matthew R; Vonck, Caroline E; Smith, Gabriel A; Mroz, Thomas E; Steinmetz, Michael P

2018-06-15

OBJECTIVE Spine surgeons in the United States continue to be overwhelmed by an aging population, and patients are waiting weeks to months for appointments. With a finite number of clinic visits per surgeon, analysis of referral sources needs to be explored. In this study, the authors evaluated patient referrals and their yield for surgical volume at a tertiary care center. METHODS This is a retrospective study of new patient visits by the spine surgery group at the Cleveland Clinic Center for Spine Health from 2011 to 2016. Data on all new or consultation visits for 5 identified spinal surgeons at the Center for Spine Health were collected. Patients with an identifiable referral source and who were at least 18 years of age at initial visit were included in this study. Univariate analysis was used to identify demographic differences among referral groups, and then multivariate analysis was used to evaluate those referral groups as significant predictors of surgical yield. RESULTS After adjusting for demographic differences across all referrals, multivariate analysis identified physician referrals as more likely (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.04-2.10, p = 0.0293) to yield a surgical case than self-referrals. General practitioner referrals (OR 0.5616, 95% CI 0.3809-0.8278, p = 0.0036) were identified as less likely to yield surgical cases than referrals from interventionalists (OR 1.5296, p = 0.058) or neurologists (OR 1.7498, 95% CI 1.0057-3.0446, p = 0.0477). Additionally, 2 demographic factors, including distance from home and age, were identified as predictors of surgery. Local patients (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13-1.29, p = 0.018) and those 65 years of age or older (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.87, p = 0.0023) were both more likely to need surgery after establishing care with a spine surgeon. CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, referrals from general practitioners and self-referrals are important areas where focused triaging may be necessary. Further research into midlevel providers and nonsurgical spine provider's role in these referrals for spine pathology is needed. Patients from outside of the state or younger than 65 years could benefit from pre-visit screening as well to optimize a surgeon's clinic time use and streamline patient care.

Strain memory of 2D and 3D rigid inclusion populations in viscous flows - What is clast SPO telling us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahr, Donald W.; Law, Richard D.

2014-11-01

We model the development of shape preferred orientation (SPO) of a large population of two- and three-dimensional (2D and 3D) rigid clasts suspended in a linear viscous matrix deformed by superposed steady and continuously non-steady plane strain flows to investigate the sensitivity of clasts to changing boundary conditions during a single or superposed deformation events. Resultant clast SPOs are compared to one developed by an identical initial population that experienced a steady flow history of constant kinematic vorticity and reached an identical finite strain state, allowing examination of SPO sensitivity to deformation path. Rotation paths of individual triaxial inclusions are complex, even for steady plane strain flow histories. It has been suggested that the 3D nature of the system renders predictions based on 2D models inadequate for applied clast-based kinematic vorticity gauges. We demonstrate that for a large population of clasts, simplification to a 2D model does provide a good approximation to the SPO predicted by full 3D analysis for steady and non-steady plane strain deformation paths. Predictions of shape fabric development from 2D models are not only qualitatively similar to the more complex 3D analysis, but they display the same limitations of techniques based on clast SPO commonly used as a quantitative kinematic vorticity gauge. Our model results from steady, superposed, and non-steady flow histories with a significant pure shearing component at a wide range of finite strain resemble predictions for an identical initial population that experienced a single steady simple shearing deformation. We conclude that individual 2D and 3D clasts respond instantaneously to changes in boundary conditions, however, in aggregate, the SPO of a population of rigid inclusions does not reflect the late-stage kinematics of deformation, nor is it an indicator of the unique 'mean' kinematic vorticity experienced by a deformed rock volume.

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, Américo T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through the Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different repoductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.

Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

PubMed

Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

2015-07-01

Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

Detection of Problem Gambler Subgroups Using Recursive Partitioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce

2013-01-01

The multivariate socio-demographic risk factors for problem gambling have been well documented. While this body of research is valuable in determining risk factors aggregated across various populations, the majority of studies tend not to specifically identify particular subgroups of problem gamblers based on the interaction between variables. The…

Interaction Analysis in MANOVA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betz, M. Austin

Simultaneous test procedures (STPS for short) in the context of the unrestricted full rank general linear multivariate model for population cell means are introduced and utilized to analyze interactions in factorial designs. By appropriate choice of an implying hypothesis, it is shown how to test overall main effects, interactions, simple main,…

Dynamics of Volunteering in Older Europeans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hank, Karsten; Erlinghagen, Marcel

2010-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the dynamics of volunteering in the population aged 50 years or older across 11 Continental European countries. Design and Methods: Using longitudinal data from the first 2 waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we run multivariate regressions on a set of binary-dependent variables indicating…

Simultaneous Inference Procedures for Means.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krishnaiah, P. R.

Some aspects of simultaneous tests for means are reviewed. Specifically, the comparison of univariate or multivariate normal populations based on the values of the means or mean vectors when the variances or covariance matrices are equal is discussed. Tukey's and Dunnett's tests for multiple comparisons of means, Scheffe's method of examining…

Self-Esteem, Study Habits and Academic Performance among University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chilca Alva, Manuel L.

2017-01-01

This study was intended to establish whether self-esteem and study habits correlate with academic performance among university students. Research conducted was descriptive observational, multivariate or cross-sectional factorial in nature. The study population consisted of 196 students enrolled in a Basic Mathematics 1 class at the School of…

Inference on the Ranks of the Canonical Correlation Matrices for Elliptically Symmetric Populations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-05-01

robust estimates of the covariance matrix, the reader is referred to Devlin, Gnanadesikan and Kettenring (1975) and Maronna (1976). Murihead and...contoured distributions. J. Multivariate Anal. 11, 368-385. 6. DEVLIN, S.J. GNANADESIKAN , R. and KETTENRING, J. (1975). Robust estima- tion and outlier

Population-Based Ant Colony Optimization for Multivariate Microaggregation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksut, Ann Ahu

2013-01-01

Numerous organizations collect and distribute non-aggregate personal data for a variety of different purposes, including demographic and public health research. In these situations, the data distributor is responsible with the protection of the anonymity and personal information of individuals. Microaggregation is one of the most commonly used…

MMPI Modal Profiles in a Juvenile Delinquent Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pickett, Lawrence K., Jr.

1981-01-01

The MMPI results obtained from 245 adolescent males referred to the evaluation unit of a Juvenile Court were submitted to a multivariate classification system. By correlating individual subject profiles with the modal profiles, six membership groups were formed. No relationship was found between group membership and age or race. (Author)

Finite difference method accelerated with sparse solvers for structural analysis of the metal-organic complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guda, A. A.; Guda, S. A.; Soldatov, M. A.; Lomachenko, K. A.; Bugaev, A. L.; Lamberti, C.; Gawelda, W.; Bressler, C.; Smolentsev, G.; Soldatov, A. V.; Joly, Y.

2016-05-01

Finite difference method (FDM) implemented in the FDMNES software [Phys. Rev. B, 2001, 63, 125120] was revised. Thorough analysis shows, that the calculated diagonal in the FDM matrix consists of about 96% zero elements. Thus a sparse solver would be more suitable for the problem instead of traditional Gaussian elimination for the diagonal neighbourhood. We have tried several iterative sparse solvers and the direct one MUMPS solver with METIS ordering turned out to be the best. Compared to the Gaussian solver present method is up to 40 times faster and allows XANES simulations for complex systems already on personal computers. We show applicability of the software for metal-organic [Fe(bpy)3]2+ complex both for low spin and high spin states populated after laser excitation.

Mean-Potential Law in Evolutionary Games.

PubMed

Nałęcz-Jawecki, Paweł; Miękisz, Jacek

2018-01-12

The Letter presents a novel way to connect random walks, stochastic differential equations, and evolutionary game theory. We introduce a new concept of a potential function for discrete-space stochastic systems. It is based on a correspondence between one-dimensional stochastic differential equations and random walks, which may be exact not only in the continuous limit but also in finite-state spaces. Our method is useful for computation of fixation probabilities in discrete stochastic dynamical systems with two absorbing states. We apply it to evolutionary games, formulating two simple and intuitive criteria for evolutionary stability of pure Nash equilibria in finite populations. In particular, we show that the 1/3 law of evolutionary games, introduced by Nowak et al. [Nature, 2004], follows from a more general mean-potential law.

Genetic Structure of Bluefin Tuna in the Mediterranean Sea Correlates with Environmental Variables

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Stagioni, Marco; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2013-01-01

Background Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ABFT) shows complex demography and ecological variation in the Mediterranean Sea. Genetic surveys have detected significant, although weak, signals of population structuring; catch series analyses and tagging programs identified complex ABFT spatial dynamics and migration patterns. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the genetic structure of the ABFT in the Mediterranean is correlated with mean surface temperature and salinity. Methodology We used six samples collected from Western and Central Mediterranean integrated with a new sample collected from the recently identified easternmost reproductive area of Levantine Sea. To assess population structure in the Mediterranean we used a multidisciplinary framework combining classical population genetics, spatial and Bayesian clustering methods and a multivariate approach based on factor analysis. Conclusions FST analysis and Bayesian clustering methods detected several subpopulations in the Mediterranean, a result also supported by multivariate analyses. In addition, we identified significant correlations of genetic diversity with mean salinity and surface temperature values revealing that ABFT is genetically structured along two environmental gradients. These results suggest that a preference for some spawning habitat conditions could contribute to shape ABFT genetic structuring in the Mediterranean. However, further studies should be performed to assess to what extent ABFT spawning behaviour in the Mediterranean Sea can be affected by environmental variation. PMID:24260341

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

Evidences of local adaptation in quantitative traits in Prosopis alba (Leguminosae).

PubMed

Bessega, C; Pometti, C; Ewens, M; Saidman, B O; Vilardi, J C

2015-02-01

Signals of selection on quantitative traits can be detected by the comparison between the genetic differentiation of molecular (neutral) markers and quantitative traits, by multivariate extensions of the same model and by the observation of the additive covariance among relatives. We studied, by three different tests, signals of occurrence of selection in Prosopis alba populations over 15 quantitative traits: three economically important life history traits: height, basal diameter and biomass, 11 leaf morphology traits that may be related with heat-tolerance and physiological responses and spine length that is very important from silvicultural purposes. We analyzed 172 G1-generation trees growing in a common garden belonging to 32 open pollinated families from eight sampling sites in Argentina. The multivariate phenotypes differ significantly among origins, and the highest differentiation corresponded to foliar traits. Molecular genetic markers (SSR) exhibited significant differentiation and allowed us to provide convincing evidence that natural selection is responsible for the patterns of morphological differentiation. The heterogeneous selection over phenotypic traits observed suggested different optima in each population and has important implications for gene resource management. The results suggest that the adaptive significance of traits should be considered together with population provenance in breeding program as a crucial point prior to any selecting program, especially in Prosopis where the first steps are under development.

Systemic sclerosis in Canada's North American Native population: assessment of clinical and serological manifestations.

PubMed

Bacher, Adrienne; Mittoo, Shikha; Hudson, Marie; Tatibouet, Solène; Baron, Murray

2013-07-01

Certain North American Native (NAN) populations are known to have higher rates of systemic sclerosis (SSc) compared to non-NAN; however, little is known of the specific disease characteristics in this population in Canada. This study compares the clinical and serological manifestations of SSc in NAN and white patients. This cross-sectional, multicenter study included subjects enrolled in the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group registry between September 2004 and June 2012. Subjects were evaluated with complete medical histories, physical examinations, and self-questionnaires. Ethnicity was defined by self-report. Disease characteristics were compared between NAN and white patients and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the independent association between ethnicity and various clinical manifestations. Of 1278 patients, 1038 (81%) were white, 71 (6%) were NAN, and 169 (13%) were classified as non-white/non-NAN. There were important differences between NAN and white subjects with SSc. In multivariate analysis adjusting for socioeconomic differences and smoking status, NAN ethnicity was an independent risk factor for the severity of Raynaud phenomenon and more gastrointestinal symptoms, and was associated with a nonsignificant increase in the presence of digital ulcers. NAN patients with SSc have a distinct clinical phenotype. Our study provides a strong rationale to pursue further research into genetic and environmental determinants of SSc.

DROUGHT AND POPULATION MOBILITY IN RURAL ETHIOPIA

PubMed Central

Mueller, Valerie

2011-01-01

Significant attention has focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large populations in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have investigated climate-induced migration. We use event history methods and a unique longitudinal dataset from the rural Ethiopian highlands to investigate the effects of drought on population mobility over a ten-year period. The results indicate that men’s labor migration increases with drought and that land-poor households are most vulnerable. However, marriage-related moves by women also decrease with drought. These findings suggest a hybrid narrative of environmentally-induced migration that recognizes multiple dimensions of adaptation to environmental change. PMID:22523447

Can a bank crisis break your heart?

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Meissner, Christopher M; King, Lawrence P

2008-01-01

Background To assess whether a banking system crisis increases short-term population cardiovascular mortality rates. Methods International, longitudinal multivariate regression analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality data from 1960 to 2002 Results A system-wide banking crisis increases population heart disease mortality rates by 6.4% (95% CI: 2.5% to 10.2%, p < 0.01) in high income countries, after controlling for economic change, macroeconomic instability, and population age and social distribution. The estimated effect is nearly four times as large in low income countries. Conclusion Banking crises are a significant determinant of short-term increases in heart disease mortality rates, and may have more severe consequences for developing countries. PMID:18197979

Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

2016-08-01

The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

Finite land, infinite futures? Sustainable options on a fixed land base.

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

2001-01-01

The United States is expected to add around 120 million, an additional 40 percent, to its population in the next 50 years and personal incomes are generally projected to rise. This will inevitably intensify land use pressures. Between 1992 and 1997, USDA's National Resource Inventory estimated that 2.2 million acres of rural land were developed each year, with...

A Chronicle of Global Environmental Education Concept Development in the Social Studies Curriculum: 1970-1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Richard

If the nation and world community are to control population growth, better manage finite resources, provide adequate quantities of food and water, improve the quality of the atmosphere, and prevent further extinction of plant and animal species, then a program to educate a generation of quality environment-oriented people must be initiated.…

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Allen, Craig D.; Brown, James H.; Burger, Joseph R.; Davidson, Ana D.; Fristoe, Trevor S.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; Hammond, Sean T.; Kodric-Brown, Astrid; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Okie, Jordan G.

2013-01-01

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.

Estimation of Standard Error of Regression Effects in Latent Regression Models Using Binder's Linearization. Research Report. ETS RR-07-09

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Deping; Oranje, Andreas

2007-01-01

Two versions of a general method for approximating standard error of regression effect estimates within an IRT-based latent regression model are compared. The general method is based on Binder's (1983) approach, accounting for complex samples and finite populations by Taylor series linearization. In contrast, the current National Assessment of…

General Multivariate Linear Modeling of Surface Shapes Using SurfStat

PubMed Central

Chung, Moo K.; Worsley, Keith J.; Nacewicz, Brendon, M.; Dalton, Kim M.; Davidson, Richard J.

2010-01-01

Although there are many imaging studies on traditional ROI-based amygdala volumetry, there are very few studies on modeling amygdala shape variations. This paper present a unified computational and statistical framework for modeling amygdala shape variations in a clinical population. The weighted spherical harmonic representation is used as to parameterize, to smooth out, and to normalize amygdala surfaces. The representation is subsequently used as an input for multivariate linear models accounting for nuisance covariates such as age and brain size difference using SurfStat package that completely avoids the complexity of specifying design matrices. The methodology has been applied for quantifying abnormal local amygdala shape variations in 22 high functioning autistic subjects. PMID:20620211

Multivariate approach to matrimonial mobility in Catalonia.

PubMed

Calafell, F; Hernández, M

1993-10-01

Matrimonial mobility in Catalonia was studied using 1986 census data. Comarca (a geographic division) of birth was used as the population unit, and a measure of affinity (a statistical distance) between comarques in spouse geographic origin was defined. This distance was analyzed with multivariate methods drawn from numerical taxonomy to detect any discontinuities in matrimonial mobility and gene flow between comarques. Results show a three-level pattern of gene flow in Catalonia: (1) a strong endogamy within comarques; (2) a 100-km matrimonial circle around every comarca; and (3) the capital, Barcelona, which attracts migrants from all over Catalonia. The regionalization in matrimonial mobility follows the geographically clear-cut groups of comarques almost exactly.

Implications of Supermarket Access, Neighborhood Walkability, and Poverty Rates for Diabetes Risk in an Employee Population

PubMed Central

Herrick, Cynthia J.; Yount, Byron W.; Eyler, Amy A.

2016-01-01

Objective Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of this study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. Design This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employee zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual and zip code level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Setting Data was collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system 2009–2012. Subjects The dataset contains 25,227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual’s first entry into the database, 15,522 individuals had complete data for analysis. Results The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2.3%. There was significant variability in individual and zip code level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percent poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Conclusions Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighborhood environment, and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health. PMID:26638995

Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

PubMed

Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

2016-08-01

Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

A Persistent Disparity: Smoking in Rural Sexual and Gender Minorities.

PubMed

Bennett, Keisa; McElroy, Jane A; Johnson, Andrew O; Munk, Niki; Everett, Kevin D

2015-03-01

Sexual and gender minorities (SGM) smoke cigarettes at higher rates than the general population. Historically, research in SGM health issues was conducted in urban populations and recent population-based studies seldom have sufficient SGM participants to distinguish urban from rural. Given that rural populations also tend to have a smoking disparity, and that many SGM live in rural areas, it is vitally important to understand the intersection of rural residence, SGM identity, and smoking. This study analyzes the patterns of smoking in urban and rural SGM in a large sample. We conducted an analysis of 4280 adult participants in the Out, Proud, and Healthy project with complete data on SGM status, smoking status, and zip code. Surveys were conducted at 6 Missouri Pride Festivals and online in 2012. Analysis involved descriptive and bivariate methods, and multivariable logistic regression. We used GIS mapping to demonstrate the dispersion of rural SGM participants. SGM had higher smoking proportion than the non-SGM recruited from these settings. In the multivariable model, SGM identity conferred 1.35 times the odds of being a current smoker when controlled for covariates. Rural residence was not independently significant, demonstrating the persistence of the smoking disparity in rural SGM. Mapping revealed widespread distribution of SGM in rural areas. The SGM smoking disparity persists among rural SGM. These communities would benefit from continued research into interventions targeting both SGM and rural tobacco control measures. Recruitment at Pride Festivals may provide a venue for reaching rural SGM for intervention.

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

2014-03-25

Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

Harnessing Multivariate Statistics for Ellipsoidal Data in Structural Geology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, N.; Davis, J. R.; Titus, S.; Tikoff, B.

2015-12-01

Most structural geology articles do not state significance levels, report confidence intervals, or perform regressions to find trends. This is, in part, because structural data tend to include directions, orientations, ellipsoids, and tensors, which are not treatable by elementary statistics. We describe a full procedural methodology for the statistical treatment of ellipsoidal data. We use a reconstructed dataset of deformed ooids in Maryland from Cloos (1947) to illustrate the process. Normalized ellipsoids have five degrees of freedom and can be represented by a second order tensor. This tensor can be permuted into a five dimensional vector that belongs to a vector space and can be treated with standard multivariate statistics. Cloos made several claims about the distribution of deformation in the South Mountain fold, Maryland, and we reexamine two particular claims using hypothesis testing: 1) octahedral shear strain increases towards the axial plane of the fold; 2) finite strain orientation varies systematically along the trend of the axial trace as it bends with the Appalachian orogen. We then test the null hypothesis that the southern segment of South Mountain is the same as the northern segment. This test illustrates the application of ellipsoidal statistics, which combine both orientation and shape. We report confidence intervals for each test, and graphically display our results with novel plots. This poster illustrates the importance of statistics in structural geology, especially when working with noisy or small datasets.

An open source multivariate framework for n-tissue segmentation with evaluation on public data.

PubMed

Avants, Brian B; Tustison, Nicholas J; Wu, Jue; Cook, Philip A; Gee, James C

2011-12-01

We introduce Atropos, an ITK-based multivariate n-class open source segmentation algorithm distributed with ANTs ( http://www.picsl.upenn.edu/ANTs). The Bayesian formulation of the segmentation problem is solved using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm with the modeling of the class intensities based on either parametric or non-parametric finite mixtures. Atropos is capable of incorporating spatial prior probability maps (sparse), prior label maps and/or Markov Random Field (MRF) modeling. Atropos has also been efficiently implemented to handle large quantities of possible labelings (in the experimental section, we use up to 69 classes) with a minimal memory footprint. This work describes the technical and implementation aspects of Atropos and evaluates its performance on two different ground-truth datasets. First, we use the BrainWeb dataset from Montreal Neurological Institute to evaluate three-tissue segmentation performance via (1) K-means segmentation without use of template data; (2) MRF segmentation with initialization by prior probability maps derived from a group template; (3) Prior-based segmentation with use of spatial prior probability maps derived from a group template. We also evaluate Atropos performance by using spatial priors to drive a 69-class EM segmentation problem derived from the Hammers atlas from University College London. These evaluation studies, combined with illustrative examples that exercise Atropos options, demonstrate both performance and wide applicability of this new platform-independent open source segmentation tool.

An Open Source Multivariate Framework for n-Tissue Segmentation with Evaluation on Public Data

PubMed Central

Tustison, Nicholas J.; Wu, Jue; Cook, Philip A.; Gee, James C.

2012-01-01

We introduce Atropos, an ITK-based multivariate n-class open source segmentation algorithm distributed with ANTs (http://www.picsl.upenn.edu/ANTs). The Bayesian formulation of the segmentation problem is solved using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm with the modeling of the class intensities based on either parametric or non-parametric finite mixtures. Atropos is capable of incorporating spatial prior probability maps (sparse), prior label maps and/or Markov Random Field (MRF) modeling. Atropos has also been efficiently implemented to handle large quantities of possible labelings (in the experimental section, we use up to 69 classes) with a minimal memory footprint. This work describes the technical and implementation aspects of Atropos and evaluates its performance on two different ground-truth datasets. First, we use the BrainWeb dataset from Montreal Neurological Institute to evaluate three-tissue segmentation performance via (1) K-means segmentation without use of template data; (2) MRF segmentation with initialization by prior probability maps derived from a group template; (3) Prior-based segmentation with use of spatial prior probability maps derived from a group template. We also evaluate Atropos performance by using spatial priors to drive a 69-class EM segmentation problem derived from the Hammers atlas from University College London. These evaluation studies, combined with illustrative examples that exercise Atropos options, demonstrate both performance and wide applicability of this new platform-independent open source segmentation tool. PMID:21373993

Morphological variation, management and domestication of 'maguey alto' (Agave inaequidens) and 'maguey manso' (A. hookeri) in Michoacán, México.

PubMed

Figueredo, Carmen Julia; Casas, Alejandro; Colunga-GarcíaMarín, Patricia; Nassar, Jafet M; González-Rodríguez, Antonio

2014-09-16

Agave inaequidens and A. hookeri are anciently used species for producing the fermented beverage 'pulque', food and fiber in central Mexico. A. inaequidens is wild and cultivated and A. hookeri only cultivated, A. inaequidens being its putative wild relative. We analysed purposes and mechanisms of artificial selection and phenotypic divergences between wild and managed populations of A. inaequidens and between them and A. hookeri, hypothesizing phenotypic divergence between wild and domesticated populations of A. inaequidens in characters associated to domestication, and that A. hookeri would be phenotypically similar to cultivated A. inaequidens. We studied five wild and five cultivated populations of A. inaequidens, and three cultivated populations of A. hookeri. We interviewed agave managers documenting mechanisms of artificial selection, and measured 25 morphological characters. Morphological similarity and differentiation among plants and populations were analysed through multivariate methods and ANOVAs. People recognized 2-8 variants of A. inaequidens; for cultivation they select young plants collected in wild areas recognized as producing the best quality mescal agaves. Also, they collect seeds of the largest and most vigorous plants, sowing seeds in plant beds and then transplanting the most vigorous plantlets into plantations. Multivariate methods classified separately the wild and cultivated populations of A. inaequidens and these from A. hookeri, mainly because of characters related with plant and teeth size. The cultivated plants of A. inaequidens are significantly bigger with larger teeth than wild plants. A. hookeri are also significatly bigger plants with larger leaves but lower teeth density and size than A. inaequidens. Some cultivated plants of A. inaequidens were classified as A. hookeri, and nearly 10% of A. hookeri as cultivated A. inaequidens. Wild and cultivated populations of A. inaequidens differed in 13 characters, whereas A. hookeri differed in 23 characters with wild populations and only in 6 characters with cultivated populations of A. inaequidens. Divergence between wild and cultivated populations of A. inaequidens reflect artificial selection. A. hookeri is similar to the cultivated A. inaequidens, which supports the hypothesis that A. hookeri could be the extreme of a domestication gradient of a species complex.

A multivariate cure model for left-censored and right-censored data with application to colorectal cancer screening patterns.

PubMed

Hagar, Yolanda C; Harvey, Danielle J; Beckett, Laurel A

2016-08-30

We develop a multivariate cure survival model to estimate lifetime patterns of colorectal cancer screening. Screening data cover long periods of time, with sparse observations for each person. Some events may occur before the study begins or after the study ends, so the data are both left-censored and right-censored, and some individuals are never screened (the 'cured' population). We propose a multivariate parametric cure model that can be used with left-censored and right-censored data. Our model allows for the estimation of the time to screening as well as the average number of times individuals will be screened. We calculate likelihood functions based on the observations for each subject using a distribution that accounts for within-subject correlation and estimate parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply our methods to the estimation of lifetime colorectal cancer screening behavior in the SEER-Medicare data set. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prevalence and correlates of leisure-time physical activity among Nigerians

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Physical inactivity levels are rising in many countries with major implications for the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and the general health of the population worldwide. We conducted this study to examine leisure-time physical activity levels among African adults in an urban setting. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study among a random sample of 1,058 adults at a government worksite, in Abuja, an urban Nigerian city. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate the multivariable-adjusted associations of correlates of physical activity. Results The mean age of the study population was 42 ± 9.3 years, 60% were men and 40% were women. The mean metabolic equivalent hours per week for all the participants was 6.8 ± 7.2. In univariate analysis comparing the lowest to highest tertiles of physical activity, the prevalence ratio (PR) and (95% confidence interval, CI) was 0.95 (0.81-1.11) p = 0.49, comparing women to men; compared to those aged <30 years the PR (95% CI) was 0.70 (0.57-0.86), 0.70 (0.58-0.85) and 0.78 (0.63-0.96) for age 30–39, 40–49 and ≥50 years respectively, p for trend = 0.03; compared to those who were normal weight, the PR was 0.93 (0.79-1.10) and 0.90 (0.74-1.09) for overweight and obese persons respectively, p = 0.26. The PR for age was attenuated to non-significant levels in multivariable analyses. Being married was a statistically significant correlate of higher physical activity levels, the PR comparing unmarried to married persons in multivariate analysis was 0.81 (0.67-0.97), p = 0.03. Conclusions More than 80% of urban, professional Nigerian adults do not meet the WHO recommendations of physical activity. Urbanized Africans in this study population had low levels of leisure-time physical activity, independent of age, sex and body-mass index. This has major implications for the prevalence of non-communicable diseases in this population. PMID:24885080

Rapid differentiation of Listeria monocytogenes epidemic clones III and IV and their intact compared with heat-killed populations using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics.

PubMed

Nyarko, Esmond B; Puzey, Kenneth A; Donnelly, Catherine W

2014-06-01

The objectives of this study were to determine if Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy and multivariate statistical analysis (chemometrics) could be used to rapidly differentiate epidemic clones (ECs) of Listeria monocytogenes, as well as their intact compared with heat-killed populations. FT-IR spectra were collected from dried thin smears on infrared slides prepared from aliquots of 10 μL of each L. monocytogenes ECs (ECIII: J1-101 and R2-499; ECIV: J1-129 and J1-220), and also from intact and heat-killed cell populations of each EC strain using 250 scans at a resolution of 4 cm(-1) in the mid-infrared region in a reflectance mode. Chemometric analysis of spectra involved the application of the multivariate discriminant method for canonical variate analysis (CVA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). CVA of the spectra in the wavelength region 4000 to 600 cm(-1) separated the EC strains while LDA resulted in a 100% accurate classification of all spectra in the data set. Further, CVA separated intact and heat-killed cells of each EC strain and there was 100% accuracy in the classification of all spectra when LDA was applied. FT-IR spectral wavenumbers 1650 to 1390 cm(-1) were used to separate heat-killed and intact populations of L. monocytogenes. The FT-IR spectroscopy method allowed discrimination between strains that belong to the same EC. FT-IR is a highly discriminatory and reproducible method that can be used for the rapid subtyping of L. monocytogenes, as well as for the detection of live compared with dead populations of the organism. Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy and multivariate statistical analysis can be used for L. monocytogenes source tracking and for clinical case isolate comparison during epidemiological investigations since the method is capable of differentiating epidemic clones and it uses a library of well-characterized strains. The FT-IR method is potentially less expensive and more rapid compared to genetic subtyping methods, and can be used for L. monocytogenes strain typing by food industries and public health agencies to enable faster response and intervention to listeriosis outbreaks. FT-IR can also be applied for routine monitoring of the pathogen in food processing plants and for investigating postprocessing contamination because it is capable of differentiating heat-killed and viable L. monocytogenes populations. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

Fitting a Structured Juvenile-Adult Model for Green Tree Frogs to Population Estimates from Capture-Mark-Recapture Field Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Carter, J.; Deng, K.; Huang, Q.; Pal, N.; Yang, X.

2012-01-01

We derive point and interval estimates for an urban population of green tree frogs (Hyla cinerea) from capture-mark-recapture field data obtained during the years 2006-2009. We present an infinite-dimensional least-squares approach which compares a mathematical population model to the statistical population estimates obtained from the field data. The model is composed of nonlinear first-order hyperbolic equations describing the dynamics of the amphibian population where individuals are divided into juveniles (tadpoles) and adults (frogs). To solve the least-squares problem, an explicit finite difference approximation is developed. Convergence results for the computed parameters are presented. Parameter estimates for the vital rates of juveniles and adults are obtained, and standard deviations for these estimates are computed. Numerical results for the model sensitivity with respect to these parameters are given. Finally, the above-mentioned parameter estimates are used to illustrate the long-time behavior of the population under investigation. ?? 2011 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Semiclassical modelling of finite-pulse effects on non-adiabatic photodynamics via initial condition filtering: The predissociation of NaI as a test case

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martínez-Mesa, Aliezer; Institut für Chemie, Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam-Golm; Saalfrank, Peter

2015-05-21

Femtosecond-laser pulse driven non-adiabatic spectroscopy and dynamics in molecular and condensed phase systems continue to be a challenge for theoretical modelling. One of the main obstacles is the “curse of dimensionality” encountered in non-adiabatic, exact wavepacket propagation. A possible route towards treating complex molecular systems is via semiclassical surface-hopping schemes, in particular if they account not only for non-adiabatic post-excitation dynamics but also for the initial optical excitation. One such approach, based on initial condition filtering, will be put forward in what follows. As a simple test case which can be compared with exact wavepacket dynamics, we investigate the influencemore » of the different parameters determining the shape of a laser pulse (e.g., its finite width and a possible chirp) on the predissociation dynamics of a NaI molecule, upon photoexcitation of the A(0{sup +}) state. The finite-pulse effects are mapped into the initial conditions for semiclassical surface-hopping simulations. The simulated surface-hopping diabatic populations are in qualitative agreement with the quantum mechanical results, especially concerning the subpicosend photoinduced dynamics, the main deviations being the relative delay of the non-adiabatic transitions in the semiclassical picture. Likewise, these differences in the time-dependent electronic populations calculated via the semiclassical and the quantum methods are found to have a mild influence on the overall probability density distribution. As a result, the branching ratios between the bound and the dissociative reaction channels and the time-evolution of the molecular wavepacket predicted by the semiclassical method agree with those computed using quantum wavepacket propagation. Implications for more challenging molecular systems are given.« less

Response to Selection in Finite Locus Models with Nonadditive Effects.

PubMed

Esfandyari, Hadi; Henryon, Mark; Berg, Peer; Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Bijma, Piter; Sørensen, Anders Christian

2017-05-01

Under the finite-locus model in the absence of mutation, the additive genetic variation is expected to decrease when directional selection is acting on a population, according to quantitative-genetic theory. However, some theoretical studies of selection suggest that the level of additive variance can be sustained or even increased when nonadditive genetic effects are present. We tested the hypothesis that finite-locus models with both additive and nonadditive genetic effects maintain more additive genetic variance (VA) and realize larger medium- to long-term genetic gains than models with only additive effects when the trait under selection is subject to truncation selection. Four genetic models that included additive, dominance, and additive-by-additive epistatic effects were simulated. The simulated genome for individuals consisted of 25 chromosomes, each with a length of 1 M. One hundred bi-allelic QTL, 4 on each chromosome, were considered. In each generation, 100 sires and 100 dams were mated, producing 5 progeny per mating. The population was selected for a single trait (h2 = 0.1) for 100 discrete generations with selection on phenotype or BLUP-EBV. VA decreased with directional truncation selection even in presence of nonadditive genetic effects. Nonadditive effects influenced long-term response to selection and among genetic models additive gene action had highest response to selection. In addition, in all genetic models, BLUP-EBV resulted in a greater fixation of favorable and unfavorable alleles and higher response than phenotypic selection. In conclusion, for the schemes we simulated, the presence of nonadditive genetic effects had little effect in changes of additive variance and VA decreased by directional selection. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prevalence and Factors Associated with the Use of Eye Care Services in South Korea: Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010-2012.

PubMed

Park, Yong Seok; Heo, Hwan; Ye, Byeong Jin; Suh, Young-Woo; Kim, Seung-Hyun; Park, Shin Hae; Lim, Key Hwan; Lee, Sung Jin; Park, Song Hee; Baek, Seung-Hee

2017-02-01

To estimate the factors and prevalence of eye care service utilization in the South Korean population. This cross-sectional, population-based study included data from 22,550 Koreans aged ≥5 years who participated in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2010 to 2012. For people aged 5 to 11 years (young children), information was based on self-reports of contact with eye care service in the past year; for people aged ≥12 years (older population), the information was based on the self-reported lifetime contact with eye care service. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of the complex sample survey data were performed. The prevalence of eye care service use in young children during the past year was 61.1% (95% confidence interval, 58.1%-64.1%), while that in the older population during their lifetime was 73.5%. Subjects aged 7 to 11 years were more likely to have had an eye examination in the past year than subjects aged 5 to 6 years (odds ratio, 3.83; 95% confidence interval, 2.37-6.19). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that higher monthly household income, being a National Health Insurance holder, and having private health insurance were related to more frequent use of eye care services in young children. For the older population and women, those living in an urban area and those with a best-corrected visual acuity less than 20 / 40 in the worse-seeing eye were more likely to have had an eye examination during their lifetime. Low education level was associated with low lifetime use of eye care services in the older population. There are sociodemographic disparities with use of eye care services in South Korea. This population-based study provides information that is useful for determining different intervention programs based on sociodemographic disparities to promote eye care service utilization in South Korea.

Determinants of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Risk Perceptions in Youth Populations: A Multivariate Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denham, Bryan E.

2009-01-01

Grounded conceptually in social cognitive theory, this research examines how personal, behavioral, and environmental factors are associated with risk perceptions of anabolic-androgenic steroids. Ordinal logistic regression and logit log-linear models applied to data gathered from high-school seniors (N = 2,160) in the 2005 Monitoring the Future…

Predicting Community College and University Student Success: A Test of the Triadic Reciprocal Model for Two Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heller, Monica L.; Cassady, Jerrell C.

2017-01-01

The current study explored the differential influences that behavioral learning strategies (i.e., cognitive-metacognitive, resource management), motivational profiles, and academic anxiety appraisals have on college-level learners in two unique learning contexts. Using multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis, the study first…

Polymorphism, population structure, and multivariate relationships among secondary traits in open-pollinated corn heterotic groups

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant, ear and kernel traits directly or indirectly associated with grain yield in corn (Zea mays) were suggested as "secondary" traits to select for larger grain yield, especially in open-pollinated corn varieties (OPVs) and their hybrids (OPVhs). Thirty-four secondary traits, besides grain yield, ...

Multivariate analysis of the cotton seed ionome reveals integrated genetic signatures of abiotic stress-response

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To mitigate the effects of heat and drought stress, an understanding of the genetic control of physiological responses to these environmental conditions is needed. To this end, we evaluated an upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) mapping population under water-limited and well-watered conditions in...

Exact Interval Estimation, Power Calculation, and Sample Size Determination in Normal Correlation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shieh, Gwowen

2006-01-01

This paper considers the problem of analysis of correlation coefficients from a multivariate normal population. A unified theorem is derived for the regression model with normally distributed explanatory variables and the general results are employed to provide useful expressions for the distributions of simple, multiple, and partial-multiple…

Estimation of Latent Group Effects: Psychometric Technical Report No. 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mislevy, Robert J.

Conventional methods of multivariate normal analysis do not apply when the variables of interest are not observed directly, but must be inferred from fallible or incomplete data. For example, responses to mental test items may depend upon latent aptitude variables, which modeled in turn as functions of demographic effects in the population. A…

Buried landmine detection using multivariate normal clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duston, Brian M.

2001-10-01

A Bayesian classification algorithm is presented for discriminating buried land mines from buried and surface clutter in Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) signals. This algorithm is based on multivariate normal (MVN) clustering, where feature vectors are used to identify populations (clusters) of mines and clutter objects. The features are extracted from two-dimensional images created from ground penetrating radar scans. MVN clustering is used to determine the number of clusters in the data and to create probability density models for target and clutter populations, producing the MVN clustering classifier (MVNCC). The Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) is used to evaluate each model to determine the number of clusters in the data. An extension of the MVNCC allows the model to adapt to local clutter distributions by treating each of the MVN cluster components as a Poisson process and adaptively estimating the intensity parameters. The algorithm is developed using data collected by the Mine Hunter/Killer Close-In Detector (MH/K CID) at prepared mine lanes. The Mine Hunter/Killer is a prototype mine detecting and neutralizing vehicle developed for the U.S. Army to clear roads of anti-tank mines.

Low health literacy and poor health status in Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in Hawai'i.

PubMed

Sentell, Tetine; Baker, Kay Kromer; Onaka, Alvin; Braun, Kathryn

2011-01-01

Health literacy is understudied in Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders (AA/PI). We used a population-based sample in Hawai'i to consider if low health literacy is associated with poor health outcomes in Japanese, Filipino, Native Hawaiians, and other AA/PI groups compared with Whites. In data weighted and adjusted for population undercounts and complex survey design, low health literacy varied significantly by group, from 23.9% among Filipinos, 20.6% in Other AA/PI, 16.0% in Japanese, 15.9% in Native Hawaiians, and 13.2% in Whites (χ(2) (4) = 52.22; p < .001). In multivariate models, low health literacy was significantly associated with (a) poor self-reported health in Japanese, Filipinos, Other AA/PI, and Whites; (b) diabetes in Hawaiians and Japanese; and (c) depression for Hawaiians. Low health literacy did not significantly predict overweight/obesity in any ethnic grouping in multivariate models. The design and relevance of health literacy interventions, as well as the pathways that link health literacy to health status, may vary by race/ethnicity, culture, and health outcomes.

Risk factors for urinary tract infection following incontinence surgery.

PubMed

Nygaard, Ingrid; Brubaker, Linda; Chai, Toby C; Markland, Alayne D; Menefee, Shawn A; Sirls, Larry; Sutkin, Gary; Zimmern, Phillipe; Arisco, Amy; Huang, Liyuan; Tennstedt, Sharon; Stoddard, Anne

2011-10-01

The purpose of this study is to describe risk factors for post-operative urinary tract infection (UTI) the first year after stress urinary incontinence surgery. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed on data from 1,252 women randomized in two surgical trials, Stress Incontinence Surgical Treatment Efficacy trial (SISTEr) and Trial Of Mid-Urethral Slings (TOMUS). Baseline recurrent UTI (rUTI; ≥3 in 12 months) increased the risk of UTI in the first 6 weeks in both study populations, as did sling procedure and self-catheterization in SISTEr, and bladder perforation in TOMUS. Baseline rUTI, UTI in the first 6 weeks, and PVR > 100 cc at 12 months were independent risk factors for UTI between 6 weeks and 12 months in the SISTEr population. Few (2.3-2.4%) had post-operative rUTI, precluding multivariable analysis. In women with pre-operative rUTI, successful surgery (negative cough stress test) at 1 year did not appear to decrease the risk of persistent rUTI. Pre-operative rUTI is the strongest risk factor for post-operative UTI.

Heterozygote Advantage in a Finite Population: Black Color in Wolves.

PubMed

Hedrick, Philip W; Stahler, Daniel R; Dekker, Dick

2014-01-01

There is a striking color polymorphism for wolves in the Yellowstone National Park where approximately half the wolves are black. The genetic basis for this polymorphism is known, and fitnesses of the genotypes are estimated. These estimates suggest that there is strong heterozygote advantage but substantial asymmetry in the fitness differences of the 2 homozygotes. Theoretically, such fitnesses in a finite population are thought to reduce genetic variation at least as fast as if there were no selection at all. Because the color polymorphism has remained at about the same frequency for 17 years, about 4 generations, we investigated whether this was consistent with the theoretical predictions. Counter to this general expectation of loss, given the initial frequency of black wolves, the theoretical expectation in this case was found to be that the frequency would only decline slowly over time. For example, if the effective population size is 20, then the expected black allele frequency after 4 generations would be 0.191, somewhat less than the observed value of 0.237. However, nearly 30% of the time the expected frequency is 0.25 or greater, consistent with the contemporary observed frequency. In other words and in contrast to general theoretical predictions, because of the short period of time in evolutionary terms and the relatively weak selection at low frequencies, the observed variation and the predicted theoretical variation are not inconsistent. © The American Genetic Association 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A fundamental shift. For most countries in the world, the principal threat to security will not be military aggression, but food scarcity.

PubMed

Brown, L M

1995-01-01

There has been enormous growth in world population over the last several decades. 90 million people are currently added to the world's population every year. That amounts to 250,000 people per day, or 10,000 per hour. However, the Earth is a finite body with finite resources. For the first time, the human population is beginning to push against some of the Earth's limits at the global level. The author cites the example of the stagnation in growth of the world fish catch. The world fish catch grew from 22 million tons in 1950 to 100,000 million tons by 1990. In 1950, the average person consumed 9 kg of seafood; by 1990, average per capita consumption had increased to 19 kg. Japan alone in 1994 consumed almost 10 million tons of seafood. Most marine biologists believe that oceanic fisheries cannot sustain a catch of more than 100 million tons of seafood per year. Indeed, 6 years have passed since we hit that limit and the catch has not increased. The per capita seafood catch has therefore declined by 7% and will continue to decline until world population size is stabilized. Already expensive, seafood will grow increasingly more costly as demand rises. Available water supplies and cropland are also declining. It has even been determined that there are limits to the amount of fertilizer crops can use. The author considers the rising consumerism in China as it becomes increasingly industrialized and urges Japan to continue to expand its financial support of international family planning programs, especially in the context of US budget cuts to family planning expenditures. For most countries in the world, the main threat to security will not be military aggression, but food scarcity.

[Rank distributions in community ecology from the statistical viewpoint].

PubMed

Maksimov, V N

2004-01-01

Traditional statistical methods for definition of empirical functions of abundance distribution (population, biomass, production, etc.) of species in a community are applicable for processing of multivariate data contained in the above quantitative indices of the communities. In particular, evaluation of moments of distribution suffices for convolution of the data contained in a list of species and their abundance. At the same time, the species should be ranked in the list in ascending rather than descending population and the distribution models should be analyzed on the basis of the data on abundant species only.

Faà di Bruno's formula and the distributions of random partitions in population genetics and physics.

PubMed

Hoppe, Fred M

2008-06-01

We show that the formula of Faà di Bruno for the derivative of a composite function gives, in special cases, the sampling distributions in population genetics that are due to Ewens and to Pitman. The composite function is the same in each case. Other sampling distributions also arise in this way, such as those arising from Dirichlet, multivariate hypergeometric, and multinomial models, special cases of which correspond to Bose-Einstein, Fermi-Dirac, and Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions in physics. Connections are made to compound sampling models.

Deeper Insights into the Circumgalactic Medium using Multivariate Analysis Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, James; Churchill, Christopher W.; Nielsen, Nikole M.; Kacprzak, Glenn

2017-01-01

Drawing from a database of galaxies whose surrounding gas has absorption from MgII, called the MgII-Absorbing Galaxy Catalog (MAGIICAT, Neilsen et al 2013), we studied the circumgalactic medium (CGM) for a sample of 47 galaxies. Using multivariate analysis, in particular the k-means clustering algorithm, we determined that simultaneously examining column density (N), rest-frame B-K color, virial mass, and azimuthal angle (the projected angle between the galaxy major axis and the quasar line of sight) yields two distinct populations: (1) bluer, lower mass galaxies with higher column density along the minor axis, and (2) redder, higher mass galaxies with lower column density along the major axis. We support this grouping by running (i) two-sample, two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests on each of the six bivariate planes and (ii) two-sample KS tests on each of the four variables to show that the galaxies significantly cluster into two independent populations. To account for the fact that 16 of our 47 galaxies have upper limits on N, we performed Monte-Carlo tests whereby we replaced upper limits with random deviates drawn from a Schechter distribution fit, f(N). These tests strengthen the results of the KS tests. We examined the behavior of the MgII λ2796 absorption line equivalent width and velocity width for each galaxy population. We find that equivalent width and velocity width do not show similar characteristic distinctions between the two galaxy populations. We discuss the k-means clustering algorithm for optimizing the analysis of populations within datasets as opposed to using arbitrary bivariate subsample cuts. We also discuss the power of the k-means clustering algorithm in extracting deeper physical insight into the CGM in relationship to host galaxies.

Associations of Urinary Cotinine-Verified Active and Passive Smoking with Thyroid Function: Analysis of Population-Based Nationally Representative Data.

PubMed

Kang, Jihun; Kong, Eunhee; Choi, Jongsoon

2018-05-01

The effects of active and passive smoking on thyroid function in the Korean population have not been determined. Furthermore, related research is based on self-reported smoking status, which may be inaccurate, especially among women. The present study aimed at evaluating the association between biochemically verified smoking status and thyroid function in a nationally representative Korean population. This population-based cross-sectional study included 3404 subjects without thyroid disease who were not taking thyroid medication. Smoking status was identified using self-reported data and urinary cotinine levels. Kruskal-Wallis and Jonckheere-Terpstra trend tests were performed to evaluate the association between smoking exposure and thyroid function. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of smoking on subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). Biochemically verified active and passive smoking rates were 43.4% and 23.3% among men and 10.0% and 22.9% among women, respectively. Active smokers had significantly lower iodine levels than passive smokers and nonsmokers. Active smoking was associated with decreased serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels among both sexes, although only men exhibited a dose-response relationship between increasing smoking exposure and decreasing TSH levels. Passive smoking slightly decreased TSH levels, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The risk of SCH decreased with increasing smoking exposure in the multivariate-adjusted analysis (p for trend = 0.027 among men and 0.042 among women). Active and passive smoking were associated with decreasing serum TSH levels and a lower risk of SCH in a Korean population. These associations might be related to lower urinary iodine levels in active smokers.

Population health needs as predictors of variations in NHS practice payments: a cross-sectional study of English general practices in 2013–2014 and 2014–2015

PubMed Central

Levene, Louis S; Baker, Richard; Wilson, Andrew; Walker, Nicola; Boomla, Kambiz; Bankart, M John G

2017-01-01

Background NHS general practice payments in England include pay for performance elements and a weighted component designed to compensate for workload, but without measures of specific deprivation or ethnic groups. Aim To determine whether population factors related to health needs predicted variations in NHS payments to individual general practices in England. Design and setting Cross-sectional study of all practices in England, in financial years 2013–2014 and 2014–2015. Method Descriptive statistics, univariable analyses (examining correlations between payment and predictors), and multivariable analyses (undertaking multivariable linear regressions for each year, with logarithms of payments as the dependent variables, and with population, practice, and performance factors as independent variables) were undertaken. Results Several population variables predicted variations in adjusted total payments, but inconsistently. Higher payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, African Caribbean ethnic group, and asthma prevalence. Lower payments were associated with an increase in smoking prevalence. Long-term health conditions, South Asian ethnic group, and diabetes prevalence were not predictive. The adjusted R2 values were 0.359 (2013–2014) and 0.374 (2014–2015). A slightly different set of variables predicted variations in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Lower payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, and diabetes prevalence. Smoking prevalence was not predictive. There was a geographical differential. Conclusion Population factors related to health needs were, overall, poor predictors of variations in adjusted total practice payments and in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Revising the weighting formula and extending weighting to other payment components might better support practices to address these needs. PMID:27872085

Attitude to health risk in the Canadian population: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Bansback, Nick; Harrison, Mark; Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Stiggelbout, Anne; Whitehurst, David G.T.

2016-01-01

Background: Risk is a ubiquitous part of health care. Understanding how people respond to risks is important for predicting how populations make health decisions. Our objective was to seek preliminary descriptive insights into the attitude to health risk in the Canadian population and factors associated with heterogeneity in risk attitude. Methods: We used a large market-research panel to survey (in English and French) a representative sample of the Canadian general population that reflected the age, sex and geography of the population. The survey included the Health-Risk Attitude Scale, which predicts how a person resolves risky health decisions related to treatment, prevention of disease and health-related behaviour. In addition, we assessed participants' numeracy and risk understanding, as well as income band and level of education. We summarized the responses, and we explored the independent associations between demographics, numeracy, risk understanding and risk attitude in multivariable models. Results: Of 6780 respondents, 4949 (73.0%) were averse to health risks; however, but there was considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude of risk aversion. We found significant gradients of risk averse attitudes with increasing age and being female (p < 0.001) using the multivariable model. French-speaking participants appeared to be more risk averse than those who were English-speaking (p < 0.001), as were individuals scoring higher on the Subjective Numeracy Scale (p < 0.001). Interpreation: In general, Canadians were averse to health risks, but we found that a sizeable, identifiable group of risk takers exists. Heterogeneity in preferences for risk can explain variations in health care utilization in the context of patient-centred care. Understanding risk preference heterogeneity can help guide policy and assist in patient-physician decisions. PMID:27398375

Population health needs as predictors of variations in NHS practice payments: a cross-sectional study of English general practices in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

PubMed

Levene, Louis S; Baker, Richard; Wilson, Andrew; Walker, Nicola; Boomla, Kambiz; Bankart, M John G

2017-01-01

NHS general practice payments in England include pay for performance elements and a weighted component designed to compensate for workload, but without measures of specific deprivation or ethnic groups. To determine whether population factors related to health needs predicted variations in NHS payments to individual general practices in England. Cross-sectional study of all practices in England, in financial years 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Descriptive statistics, univariable analyses (examining correlations between payment and predictors), and multivariable analyses (undertaking multivariable linear regressions for each year, with logarithms of payments as the dependent variables, and with population, practice, and performance factors as independent variables) were undertaken. Several population variables predicted variations in adjusted total payments, but inconsistently. Higher payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, African Caribbean ethnic group, and asthma prevalence. Lower payments were associated with an increase in smoking prevalence. Long-term health conditions, South Asian ethnic group, and diabetes prevalence were not predictive. The adjusted R 2 values were 0.359 (2013-2014) and 0.374 (2014-2015). A slightly different set of variables predicted variations in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Lower payments were associated with increases in deprivation, patients of older age, and diabetes prevalence. Smoking prevalence was not predictive. There was a geographical differential. Population factors related to health needs were, overall, poor predictors of variations in adjusted total practice payments and in the payment component designed to compensate for workload. Revising the weighting formula and extending weighting to other payment components might better support practices to address these needs. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Do doctors vote?

PubMed

Grande, David; Asch, David A; Armstrong, Katrina

2007-05-01

Organizational leaders and scholars have issued calls for the medical profession to refocus its efforts on fulfilling the core tenets of professionalism. A key element of professionalism is participation in community affairs. To measure physician voting rates as an indicator of civic participation. Cross-sectional survey of a subgroup of physicians from a nationally representative household survey of civilian, noninstitutionalized adult citizens. A total of 350,870 participants in the Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voter Supplement from 1996-2002, including 1,274 physicians and 1,886 lawyers; 414,989 participants in the CPS survey from 1976-1982, including 2,033 health professionals. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to compare adjusted physician voting rates in the 1996-2002 congressional and presidential elections with those of lawyers and the general population and to compare voting rates of health professionals in 1996-2002 with those in 1976-1992. After multivariate adjustment for characteristics known to be associated with voting rates, physicians were less likely to vote than the general population in 1998 (odds ratio 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.99), 2000 (odds ratio 0.64; 95% CI 0.44-0.93), and 2002 (odds ratio 0.62; 95% CI 0.48-0.80) but not 1996 (odds ratio 0.83; 95% CI 0.59-1.17). Lawyers voted at higher rates than the general population and doctors in all four elections (P < .001). The pooled adjusted odds ratio for physician voting across the four elections was 0.70 (CI 0.61-0.81). No substantial changes in voting rates for health professionals were observed between 1976-1982 and 1996-2002. Physicians have lower adjusted voting rates than lawyers and the general population, suggesting reduced civic participation.

Extinction and survival in two-species annihilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amar, J. G.; Ben-Naim, E.; Davis, S. M.; Krapivsky, P. L.

2018-02-01

We study diffusion-controlled two-species annihilation with a finite number of particles. In this stochastic process, particles move diffusively, and when two particles of opposite type come into contact, the two annihilate. We focus on the behavior in three spatial dimensions and for initial conditions where particles are confined to a compact domain. Generally, one species outnumbers the other, and we find that the difference between the number of majority and minority species, which is a conserved quantity, controls the behavior. When the number difference exceeds a critical value, the minority becomes extinct and a finite number of majority particles survive, while below this critical difference, a finite number of particles of both species survive. The critical difference Δc grows algebraically with the total initial number of particles N , and when N ≫1 , the critical difference scales as Δc˜N1 /3 . Furthermore, when the initial concentrations of the two species are equal, the average number of surviving majority and minority particles, M+ and M-, exhibit two distinct scaling behaviors, M+˜N1 /2 and M-˜N1 /6 . In contrast, when the initial populations are equal, these two quantities are comparable M+˜M-˜N1 /3 .

Structural flexibility of the sulfur mustard molecule at finite temperature from Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Lach, Joanna; Goclon, Jakub; Rodziewicz, Pawel

2016-04-05

Sulfur mustard (SM) is one of the most dangerous chemical compounds used against humans, mostly at war conditions but also in terrorist attacks. Even though the sulfur mustard has been synthesized over a hundred years ago, some of its molecular properties are not yet resolved. We investigate the structural flexibility of the SM molecule in the gas phase by Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulations. Thorough conformation analysis of 81 different SM configurations using density functional theory is performed to analyze the behavior of the system at finite temperature. The conformational diversity is analyzed with respect to the formation of intramolecular blue-shifting CH⋯S and CH⋯Cl hydrogen bonds. Molecular dynamics simulations indicate that all structural rearrangements between SM local minima are realized either in direct or non-direct way, including the intermediate structure in the last case. We study the lifetime of the SM conformers and perform the population analysis. Additionally, we provide the anharmonic dynamical finite temperature IR spectrum from the Fourier Transform of the dipole moment autocorrelation function to mimic the missing experimental IR spectrum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference for finite-sample trajectories in dynamic multi-state site-occupancy models using hidden Markov model smoothing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gross, Kevin

2014-01-01

Ecologists and wildlife biologists increasingly use latent variable models to study patterns of species occurrence when detection is imperfect. These models have recently been generalized to accommodate both a more expansive description of state than simple presence or absence, and Markovian dynamics in the latent state over successive sampling seasons. In this paper, we write these multi-season, multi-state models as hidden Markov models to find both maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and finite-sample estimators of the trajectory of the latent state over time. These estimators are especially useful for characterizing population trends in species of conservation concern. We also develop parametric bootstrap procedures that allow formal inference about latent trend. We examine model behavior through simulation, and we apply the model to data from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program.

Supervised self-organization of homogeneous swarms using ergodic projections of Markov chains.

PubMed

Chattopadhyay, Ishanu; Ray, Asok

2009-12-01

This paper formulates a self-organization algorithm to address the problem of global behavior supervision in engineered swarms of arbitrarily large population sizes. The swarms considered in this paper are assumed to be homogeneous collections of independent identical finite-state agents, each of which is modeled by an irreducible finite Markov chain. The proposed algorithm computes the necessary perturbations in the local agents' behavior, which guarantees convergence to the desired observed state of the swarm. The ergodicity property of the swarm, which is induced as a result of the irreducibility of the agent models, implies that while the local behavior of the agents converges to the desired behavior only in the time average, the overall swarm behavior converges to the specification and stays there at all times. A simulation example illustrates the underlying concept.

Uncertainty in Damage Detection, Dynamic Propagation and Just-in-Time Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-03

estimated parameter uncertainty in dynamic data sets; high order compact finite difference schemes for Helmholtz equations with discontinuous wave numbers...delay differential equations with a Gamma distributed delay. We found that with the same population size the histogram plots for the solution to the...schemes for Helmholtz equations with discontinuous wave numbers across interfaces. • We carried out numerical sensitivity analysis with respect to

Motorcycle rider conspicuity and crash related injury: case-control study.

PubMed

Wells, Susan; Mullin, Bernadette; Norton, Robyn; Langley, John; Connor, Jennie; Lay-Yee, Roy; Jackson, Rod

2004-04-10

To investigate whether the risk of motorcycle crash related injuries is associated with the conspicuity of the driver or vehicle. Population based case-control study. Auckland region of New Zealand from February 1993 to February 1996. 463 motorcycle drivers (cases) involved in crashes leading to hospital treatment or death; 1233 motorcycle drivers (controls) recruited from randomly selected roadside survey sites. Estimates of relative risk of motorcycle crash related injury and population attributable risk associated with conspicuity measures, including the use of reflective or fluorescent clothing, headlight operation, and colour of helmet, clothing, and motorcycle. Crash related injuries occurred mainly in urban zones with 50 km/h speed limit (66%), during the day (63%), and in fine weather (72%). After adjustment for potential confounders, drivers wearing any reflective or fluorescent clothing had a 37% lower risk (multivariate odds ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.94) than other drivers. Compared with wearing a black helmet, use of a white helmet was associated with a 24% lower risk (multivariate odds ratio 0.76, 0.57 to 0.99). Self reported light coloured helmet versus dark coloured helmet was associated with a 19% lower risk. Three quarters of motorcycle riders had their headlight turned on during the day, and this was associated with a 27% lower risk (multivariate odds ratio 0.73, 0.53 to 1.00). No association occurred between risk and the frontal colour of drivers' clothing or motorcycle. If these odds ratios are unconfounded, the population attributable risks are 33% for wearing no reflective or fluorescent clothing, 18% for a non-white helmet, 11% for a dark coloured helmet, and 7% for no daytime headlight operation. Low conspicuity may increase the risk of motorcycle crash related injury. Increasing the use of reflective or fluorescent clothing, white or light coloured helmets, and daytime headlights are simple, cheap interventions that could considerably reduce motorcycle crash related injury and death.

Motorcycle rider conspicuity and crash related injury: case-control study

PubMed Central

Wells, Susan; Mullin, Bernadette; Norton, Robyn; Langley, John; Connor, Jennie; Lay-Yee, Roy; Jackson, Rod

2004-01-01

Objective To investigate whether the risk of motorcycle crash related injuries is associated with the conspicuity of the driver or vehicle. Design Population based case-control study. Setting Auckland region of New Zealand from February 1993 to February 1996. Participants 463 motorcycle drivers (cases) involved in crashes leading to hospital treatment or death; 1233 motorcycle drivers (controls) recruited from randomly selected roadside survey sites. Main outcome measures Estimates of relative risk of motorcycle crash related injury and population attributable risk associated with conspicuity measures, including the use of reflective or fluorescent clothing, headlight operation, and colour of helmet, clothing, and motorcycle. Results Crash related injuries occurred mainly in urban zones with 50 km/h speed limit (66%), during the day (63%), and in fine weather (72%). After adjustment for potential confounders, drivers wearing any reflective or fluorescent clothing had a 37% lower risk (multivariate odds ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.94) than other drivers. Compared with wearing a black helmet, use of a white helmet was associated with a 24% lower risk (multivariate odds ratio 0.76, 0.57 to 0.99). Self reported light coloured helmet versus dark coloured helmet was associated with a 19% lower risk. Three quarters of motorcycle riders had their headlight turned on during the day, and this was associated with a 27% lower risk (multivariate odds ratio 0.73, 0.53 to 1.00). No association occurred between risk and the frontal colour of drivers' clothing or motorcycle. If these odds ratios are unconfounded, the population attributable risks are 33% for wearing no reflective or fluorescent clothing, 18% for a non-white helmet, 11% for a dark coloured helmet, and 7% for no daytime headlight operation. Conclusions Low conspicuity may increase the risk of motorcycle crash related injury. Increasing the use of reflective or fluorescent clothing, white or light coloured helmets, and daytime headlights are simple, cheap interventions that could considerably reduce motorcycle crash related injury and death. PMID:14742349

Risk Factors for Urinary Tract Infections in Cardiac Surgical Patients

PubMed Central

Gillen, Jacob R.; Isbell, James M.; Michaels, Alex D.; Lau, Christine L.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Risk factors for catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgical procedures have been well documented. However, the variables associated with CAUTIs in the cardiac surgical population have not been clearly defined. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors associated with CAUTIs in patients undergoing cardiac procedures. Methods: All patients undergoing cardiac surgery at a single institution from 2006 through 2012 (4,883 patients) were reviewed. Patients with U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for CAUTI were identified from the hospital's Quality Assessment database. Pre-operative, operative, and post-operative patient factors were evaluated. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to identify significant correlations between perioperative characteristics and CAUTIs. Results: There were 55 (1.1%) documented CAUTIs in the study population. On univariate analysis, older age, female gender, diabetes mellitus, cardiogenic shock, urgent or emergent operation, packed red blood cell (PRBC) units transfused, and intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS) were all significantly associated with CAUTI [p<0.05]. On multivariable logistic regression, older age, female gender, diabetes mellitus, and ICU LOS remained significantly associated with CAUTI. Additionally, there was a significant association between CAUTI and 30-d mortality on univariate analysis. However, when controlling for common predictors of operative mortality on multivariable analysis, CAUTI was no longer associated with mortality. Conclusions: There are several identifiable risk factors for CAUTI in patients undergoing cardiac procedures. CAUTI is not independently associated with increased mortality, but it does serve as a marker of sicker patients more likely to die from other comorbidities or complications. Therefore, awareness of the high-risk nature of these patients should lead to increased diligence and may help to improve peri-operative outcomes. Recognizing patients at high risk for CAUTI may lead to improved measures to decrease CAUTI rates within this population. PMID:26115336

Association of hand or knee osteoarthritis with diabetes mellitus in a population of Hispanics from Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Nieves-Plaza, Mariely; Castro-Santana, Lesliane E; Font, Yvonne M; Mayor, Angel M; Vilá, Luis M

2013-01-01

Although a higher prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) has been reported among diabetes mellitus (DM) patients, inconsistencies and limitations of observational studies have precluded a conclusive association. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of hand or knee OA with DM in a population of Hispanics from Puerto Rico. A cross-sectional study was performed in 202 subjects (100 adult DM patients as per the National Diabetes Data Group Classification and 102 nondiabetic subjects). Osteoarthritis of hand and knee was ascertained using the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Sociodemographic characteristics, health-related behaviors, comorbidities, pharmacotherapy, and DM clinical manifestations were determined. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of DM with hand or knee OA and to evaluate factors associated with hand or knee OA among DM patients. The mean (SD) age for DM patients was 51.6 (13.1) years; 64.0% were females. The mean (SD) DM duration was 11.0 (10.4) years. The prevalence of OA in patients with DM and nondiabetic subjects was 49.0% and 26.5%, respectively (P < 0.01). In the multivariable analysis, patients with DM had 2.18 the odds of having OA when compared with nondiabetic subjects (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-4.24). In a subanalysis among DM patients, female patients were more likely to have hand or knee OA (odds ratio [95% CI], 5.06 [1.66-15.66]), whereas patients who did not use insulin alone for DM therapy were more likely to have OA (odds ratio [95% CI], 4.44 [1.22-16.12]). In this population of Hispanics from Puerto Rico, DM patients were more likely to have OA of hands or knees than were nondiabetic subjects. This association was retained in multivariable models accounting for established risk factors for OA. Among DM patients, females were at greater risk for OA, whereas the use of insulin was negatively associated.

Association of hand or knee osteoarthritis with diabetes mellitus in a population of Hispanics from Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Nieves-Plaza, Mariely; Castro-Santana, Lesliane E.; Font, Yvonne M.; Mayor, Angel M.; Vilá, Luis M.

2013-01-01

Background Although a higher prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) has been reported among diabetes mellitus (DM) patients, inconsistencies and limitations of observational studies have precluded a conclusive association. Objective To evaluate the association of hand or knee OA with DM in a population of Hispanics from Puerto Rico. Methods A cross-sectional study was performed in 202 subjects (100 adult DM patients as per the National Diabetes Data Group Classification, and 102 non-diabetic subjects). OA of hand and knee was ascertained using the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Sociodemographic characteristics, health-related behaviors, comorbidities, pharmacotherapy and DM clinical manifestations were determined. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of DM with hand or knee OA, and to evaluate factors associated with hand or knee OA among DM patients. Results The mean (standard deviation, SD) age for DM patients was 51.6 (13.1) years; 64.0% were females. The mean (SD) DM duration was 11.0 (10.4) years. The prevalence of OA in patients with DM and non-diabetics subjects was 49.0% and 26.5%, respectively (p<0.01). In the multivariable analysis, patients with DM had 2.18 the odds of having OA when compared to non-diabetic subjects (95% CI: 1.12–4.24). In a sub-analysis among DM patients, female patients were more likely to have hand or knee OA (OR [95% CI]: 5.06 [1.66–15.66]), whereas patients who did not use insulin alone for DM therapy were more likely to have OA (OR [95% CI]: 4.44 [1.22–16.12]). Conclusion In this population of Hispanics from Puerto Rico, DM patients were more likely to have OA of hands or knees than non-diabetic subjects. This association was retained in multivariable models accounting for established risk factors for OA. Among DM patients, females were at greater risk for OA, whereas the use of insulin was negatively associated. PMID:23319016

Risk Factors for Urinary Tract Infections in Cardiac Surgical Patients.

PubMed

Gillen, Jacob R; Isbell, James M; Michaels, Alex D; Lau, Christine L; Sawyer, Robert G

2015-10-01

Risk factors for catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgical procedures have been well documented. However, the variables associated with CAUTIs in the cardiac surgical population have not been clearly defined. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors associated with CAUTIs in patients undergoing cardiac procedures. All patients undergoing cardiac surgery at a single institution from 2006 through 2012 (4,883 patients) were reviewed. Patients with U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for CAUTI were identified from the hospital's Quality Assessment database. Pre-operative, operative, and post-operative patient factors were evaluated. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to identify significant correlations between perioperative characteristics and CAUTIs. There were 55 (1.1%) documented CAUTIs in the study population. On univariate analysis, older age, female gender, diabetes mellitus, cardiogenic shock, urgent or emergent operation, packed red blood cell (PRBC) units transfused, and intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS) were all significantly associated with CAUTI [p<0.05]. On multivariable logistic regression, older age, female gender, diabetes mellitus, and ICU LOS remained significantly associated with CAUTI. Additionally, there was a significant association between CAUTI and 30-d mortality on univariate analysis. However, when controlling for common predictors of operative mortality on multivariable analysis, CAUTI was no longer associated with mortality. There are several identifiable risk factors for CAUTI in patients undergoing cardiac procedures. CAUTI is not independently associated with increased mortality, but it does serve as a marker of sicker patients more likely to die from other comorbidities or complications. Therefore, awareness of the high-risk nature of these patients should lead to increased diligence and may help to improve peri-operative outcomes. Recognizing patients at high risk for CAUTI may lead to improved measures to decrease CAUTI rates within this population.

Multidisciplinary optimization of a controlled space structure using 150 design variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Benjamin B.

1993-01-01

A controls-structures interaction design method is presented. The method coordinates standard finite-element structural analysis, multivariable controls, and nonlinear programming codes and allows simultaneous optimization of the structure and control system of a spacecraft. Global sensitivity equations are used to account for coupling between the disciplines. Use of global sensitivity equations helps solve optimization problems that have a large number of design variables and a high degree of coupling between disciplines. The preliminary design of a generic geostationary platform is used to demonstrate the multidisciplinary optimization method. Design problems using 15, 63, and 150 design variables to optimize truss member sizes and feedback gain values are solved and the results are presented. The goal is to reduce the total mass of the structure and the vibration control system while satisfying constraints on vibration decay rate. Incorporation of the nonnegligible mass of actuators causes an essential coupling between structural design variables and control design variables.

An algorithmic approach to solving polynomial equations associated with quantum circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerdt, V. P.; Zinin, M. V.

2009-12-01

In this paper we present two algorithms for reducing systems of multivariate polynomial equations over the finite field F 2 to the canonical triangular form called lexicographical Gröbner basis. This triangular form is the most appropriate for finding solutions of the system. On the other hand, the system of polynomials over F 2 whose variables also take values in F 2 (Boolean polynomials) completely describes the unitary matrix generated by a quantum circuit. In particular, the matrix itself can be computed by counting the number of solutions (roots) of the associated polynomial system. Thereby, efficient construction of the lexicographical Gröbner bases over F 2 associated with quantum circuits gives a method for computing their circuit matrices that is alternative to the direct numerical method based on linear algebra. We compare our implementation of both algorithms with some other software packages available for computing Gröbner bases over F 2.

Euler-euler anisotropic gaussian mesoscale simulation of homogeneous cluster-induced gas-particle turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kong, Bo; Fox, Rodney O.; Feng, Heng

An Euler–Euler anisotropic Gaussian approach (EE-AG) for simulating gas–particle flows, in which particle velocities are assumed to follow a multivariate anisotropic Gaussian distribution, is used to perform mesoscale simulations of homogeneous cluster-induced turbulence (CIT). A three-dimensional Gauss–Hermite quadrature formulation is used to calculate the kinetic flux for 10 velocity moments in a finite-volume framework. The particle-phase volume-fraction and momentum equations are coupled with the Eulerian solver for the gas phase. This approach is implemented in an open-source CFD package, OpenFOAM, and detailed simulation results are compared with previous Euler–Lagrange simulations in a domain size study of CIT. Here, these resultsmore » demonstrate that the proposed EE-AG methodology is able to produce comparable results to EL simulations, and this moment-based methodology can be used to perform accurate mesoscale simulations of dilute gas–particle flows.« less

Euler-euler anisotropic gaussian mesoscale simulation of homogeneous cluster-induced gas-particle turbulence

DOE PAGES

Kong, Bo; Fox, Rodney O.; Feng, Heng; ...

2017-02-16

An Euler–Euler anisotropic Gaussian approach (EE-AG) for simulating gas–particle flows, in which particle velocities are assumed to follow a multivariate anisotropic Gaussian distribution, is used to perform mesoscale simulations of homogeneous cluster-induced turbulence (CIT). A three-dimensional Gauss–Hermite quadrature formulation is used to calculate the kinetic flux for 10 velocity moments in a finite-volume framework. The particle-phase volume-fraction and momentum equations are coupled with the Eulerian solver for the gas phase. This approach is implemented in an open-source CFD package, OpenFOAM, and detailed simulation results are compared with previous Euler–Lagrange simulations in a domain size study of CIT. Here, these resultsmore » demonstrate that the proposed EE-AG methodology is able to produce comparable results to EL simulations, and this moment-based methodology can be used to perform accurate mesoscale simulations of dilute gas–particle flows.« less

Landscape management and domestication of Stenocereus pruinosus (Cactaceae) in the Tehuacán Valley: human guided selection and gene flow.

PubMed

Parra, Fabiola; Blancas, José Juan; Casas, Alejandro

2012-08-14

Use of plant resources and ecosystems practiced by indigenous peoples of Mesoamerica commonly involves domestication of plant populations and landscapes. Our study analyzed interactions of coexisting wild and managed populations of the pitaya Stenocereus pruinosus, a columnar cactus used for its edible fruit occurring in natural forests, silviculturally managed in milpa agroforestry systems, and agriculturally managed in homegardens of the Tehuacán Valley, Mexico. We aimed at analyzing criteria of artificial selection and their consequences on phenotypic diversity and differentiation, as well as documenting management of propagules at landscape level and their possible contribution to gene flow among populations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to 83 households of the region to document perception of variation, criteria of artificial selection, and patterns of moving propagules among wild and managed populations. Morphological variation of trees from nine wild, silviculturally and agriculturally managed populations was analyzed for 37 characters through univariate and multivariate statistical methods. In addition, indexes of morphological diversity (MD) per population and phenotypic differentiation (PD) among populations were calculated using character states and frequencies. People recognized 15 pitaya varieties based on their pulp color, fruit size, form, flavor, and thorniness. On average, in wild populations we recorded one variety per population, in silviculturally managed populations 1.58 ± 0.77 varieties per parcel, and in agriculturally managed populations 2.19 ± 1.12 varieties per homegarden. Farmers select in favor of sweet flavor (71% of households interviewed) and pulp color (46%) mainly red, orange and yellow. Artificial selection is practiced in homegardens and 65% of people interviewed also do it in agroforestry systems. People obtain fruit and branches from different population types and move propagules from one another. Multivariate analyses showed morphological differentiation of wild and agriculturally managed populations, mainly due to differences in reproductive characters; however, the phenotypic differentiation indexes were relatively low among all populations studied. Morphological diversity of S. pruinosus (average MD = 0.600) is higher than in other columnar cacti species previously analyzed. Artificial selection in favor of high quality fruit promotes morphological variation and divergence because of the continual replacement of plant material propagated and introduction of propagules from other villages and regions. This process is counteracted by high gene flow influenced by natural factors (pollinators and seed dispersers) but also by human management (movement of propagules among populations), all of which determines relatively low phenotypic differentiation among populations. Conservation of genetic resources of S. pruinosus should be based on the traditional forms of germplasm management by local people.

The empirical Bayes estimators of fine-scale population structure in high gene flow species.

PubMed

Kitada, Shuichi; Nakamichi, Reiichiro; Kishino, Hirohisa

2017-11-01

An empirical Bayes (EB) pairwise F ST estimator was previously introduced and evaluated for its performance by numerical simulation. In this study, we conducted coalescent simulations and generated genetic population structure mechanistically, and compared the performance of the EBF ST with Nei's G ST , Nei and Chesser's bias-corrected G ST (G ST_NC ), Weir and Cockerham's θ (θ WC ) and θ with finite sample correction (θ WC_F ). We also introduced EB estimators for Hedrick' G' ST and Jost' D. We applied these estimators to publicly available SNP genotypes of Atlantic herring. We also examined the power to detect the environmental factors causing the population structure. Our coalescent simulations revealed that the finite sample correction of θ WC is necessary to assess population structure using pairwise F ST values. For microsatellite markers, EBF ST performed the best among the present estimators regarding both bias and precision under high gene flow scenarios (FST≤0.032). For 300 SNPs, EBF ST had the highest precision in all cases, but the bias was negative and greater than those for G ST_NC and θ WC_F in all cases. G ST_NC and θ WC_F performed very similarly at all levels of F ST . As the number of loci increased up to 10 000, the precision of G ST_NC and θ WC_F became slightly better than for EBF ST for cases with FST≥0.004, even though the size of the bias remained constant. The EB estimators described the fine-scale population structure of the herring and revealed that ~56% of the genetic differentiation was caused by sea surface temperature and salinity. The R package finepop for implementing all estimators used here is available on CRAN. © 2017 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolution and stability of altruist strategies in microbial games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

2012-01-01

When microbes compete for limited resources, they often engage in chemical warfare using bacterial toxins. This competition can be understood in terms of evolutionary game theory (EGT). We study the predictions of EGT for the bacterial “suicide bomber” game in terms of the phase portraits of population dynamics, for parameter combinations that cover all interesting games for two-players, and seven of the 38 possible phase portraits of the three-player game. We compare these predictions to simulations of these competitions in finite well-mixed populations, but also allowing for probabilistic rather than pure strategies, as well as Darwinian adaptation over tens of thousands of generations. We find that Darwinian evolution of probabilistic strategies stabilizes games of the rock-paper-scissors type that emerge for parameters describing realistic bacterial populations, and point to ways in which the population fixed point can be selected by changing those parameters.

Cooperation Dilemma in Finite Populations under Fluctuating Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Mobilia, Mauro; Roberts, Elijah

2013-12-01

We present a novel approach allowing the study of rare events like fixation under fluctuating environments, modeled as extrinsic noise, in evolutionary processes characterized by the dominance of one species. Our treatment consists of mapping the system onto an auxiliary model, exhibiting metastable species coexistence, that can be analyzed semiclassically. This approach enables us to study the interplay between extrinsic and demographic noise on the statistics of interest. We illustrate our theory by considering the paradigmatic prisoner’s dilemma game, whose evolution is described by the probability that cooperators fixate the population and replace all defectors. We analytically and numerically demonstrate that extrinsic noise may drastically enhance the cooperation fixation probability and even change its functional dependence on the population size. These results, which generalize earlier works in population genetics, indicate that extrinsic noise may help sustain and promote a much higher level of cooperation than static settings.

About an adaptively weighted Kaplan-Meier estimate.

PubMed

Plante, Jean-François

2009-09-01

The minimum averaged mean squared error nonparametric adaptive weights use data from m possibly different populations to infer about one population of interest. The definition of these weights is based on the properties of the empirical distribution function. We use the Kaplan-Meier estimate to let the weights accommodate right-censored data and use them to define the weighted Kaplan-Meier estimate. The proposed estimate is smoother than the usual Kaplan-Meier estimate and converges uniformly in probability to the target distribution. Simulations show that the performances of the weighted Kaplan-Meier estimate on finite samples exceed that of the usual Kaplan-Meier estimate. A case study is also presented.

Epoch Lifetimes in the Dynamics of a Competing Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeung, C. H.; Ma, Y. P.; Wong, K. Y. Michael

We propose a dynamical model of a competing population whose agents have a tendency to balance their decisions in time. The model is applicable to financial markets in which the agents trade with finite capital, or other multiagent systems such as routers in communication networks attempting to transmit multiclass traffic in a fair way. We find an oscillatory behavior due to the segregation of agents into two groups. Each group remains winning over epochs. The aggregation of smart agents is able to explain the lifetime distribution of epochs to 8 decades of probability. The existence of the super agents further refines the lifetime distribution of short epochs.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with dry eye symptoms: a population based study in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Lee, A J; Lee, J; Saw, S-M; Gazzard, G; Koh, D; Widjaja, D; Tan, D T H

2002-01-01

Aim: To determine the prevalence and identify associated risk factors for dry eye syndrome in a population in Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods: A one stage cluster sampling procedure was conducted to randomly select 100 households in each of the five rural villages and one provincial town of the Riau province, Indonesia, from April to June 2001. Interviewers collected demographic, lifestyle, and medical data from 1058 participants aged 21 years or over. Symptoms of dry eye were assessed using a six item validated questionnaire. Presence of one or more of the six dry eye symptoms often or all the time was analysed. Presence of pterygium was documented. Results: Prevalence of one or more of the six dry eye symptoms often or all the time adjusted for age was 27.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24.8 to 30.2). After adjusting for all significant variables, independent risk factors for dry eye were pterygium (p<0.001, multivariate odds ratio (OR) 1.8; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.5) and a history of current cigarette smoking (p=0.05, multivariate OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.0 to 2.2). Conclusions: This population based study provides prevalence rates of dry eye symptoms in a tropical developing nation. From our findings, pterygium is a possible independent risk factor for dry eye symptoms. PMID:12446361

Tuberculin reactivity and tuberculosis epidemiology in the Pakaanóva (Wari') Indians of Rondônia, south-western Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Escobar, A L; Coimbra, C E A; Camacho, L A B; Santos, R V

2004-01-01

To investigate the characteristics of tuberculin skin test reactivity in the Pakaanóva Indians, in Amazonia, Brazil, after revaccination of all study participants with bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG). The investigation was designed as a post-BCG vaccination purified protein derivative (PPD) survey. Data included PPD readings, age, sex, nutritional status, place of residence, previous tuberculosis, physical examinations and BCG status. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. About 90% (n = 505) of the total population participated. One third (32.1%) of the subjects presented induration > or = 10 mm at 72 h. Induration sizes showed weak linear correlation with age; differences between sexes were not observed. Skin reaction was not associated with nutritional status. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis were six times more likely to test positive. History of tuberculosis, age, and previous BCG vaccination were significantly associated with PPD reactivity in the multivariate analyses. The Pakaanóva showed a high proportion (58.4%) of non-reactors, even with a recent BCG booster. Sex differences in PPD reactivity were either not present or could not be demonstrated. The association between age and PPD reactivity resembles that observed in other Amazonian populations. The authors discuss the potential of PPD testing as a screening tool to enhance tuberculosis detection, especially in indigenous populations in Amazonia with limited access to health services.

Diversity among African Pygmies

PubMed Central

Ramírez Rozzi, Fernando V.; Sardi, Marina L.

2010-01-01

Although dissimilarities in cranial and post-cranial morphology among African pygmies groups have been recognized, comparative studies on skull morphology usually pull all pygmies together assuming that morphological characters are similar among them and different with respect to other populations. The main aim of this study is to compare cranial morphology between African pygmies and non-pygmies populations from Equatorial Africa derived from both the Eastern and the Western regions in order to test if the greatest morphological difference is obtained in the comparison between pygmies and non-pygmies. Thirty three-dimensional (3D) landmarks registered with Microscribe in four cranial samples (Western and Eastern pygmies and non-pygmies) were obtained. Multivariate analysis (generalized Procrustes analysis, Mahalanobis distances, multivariate regression) and complementary dimensions of size were evaluated with ANOVA and post hoc LSD. Results suggest that important cranial shape differentiation does occur between pygmies and non-pygmies but also between Eastern and Western populations and that size changes and allometries do not affect similarly Eastern and Western pygmies. Therefore, our findings raise serious doubt about the fact to consider African pygmies as a homogenous group in studies on skull morphology. Differences in cranial morphology among pygmies would suggest differentiation after divergence. Although not directly related to skull differentiation, the diversity among pygmies would probably suggest that the process responsible for reduced stature occurred after the split of the ancestors of modern Eastern and Western pygmies. PMID:21049030

Diversity among African pygmies.

PubMed

Ramírez Rozzi, Fernando V; Sardi, Marina L

2010-10-26

Although dissimilarities in cranial and post-cranial morphology among African pygmies groups have been recognized, comparative studies on skull morphology usually pull all pygmies together assuming that morphological characters are similar among them and different with respect to other populations. The main aim of this study is to compare cranial morphology between African pygmies and non-pygmies populations from Equatorial Africa derived from both the Eastern and the Western regions in order to test if the greatest morphological difference is obtained in the comparison between pygmies and non-pygmies. Thirty three-dimensional (3D) landmarks registered with Microscribe in four cranial samples (Western and Eastern pygmies and non-pygmies) were obtained. Multivariate analysis (generalized Procrustes analysis, Mahalanobis distances, multivariate regression) and complementary dimensions of size were evaluated with ANOVA and post hoc LSD. Results suggest that important cranial shape differentiation does occur between pygmies and non-pygmies but also between Eastern and Western populations and that size changes and allometries do not affect similarly Eastern and Western pygmies. Therefore, our findings raise serious doubt about the fact to consider African pygmies as a homogenous group in studies on skull morphology. Differences in cranial morphology among pygmies would suggest differentiation after divergence. Although not directly related to skull differentiation, the diversity among pygmies would probably suggest that the process responsible for reduced stature occurred after the split of the ancestors of modern Eastern and Western pygmies.

Unhealthy lifestyle factors and depressive symptoms: A Japanese general adult population survey.

PubMed

Furihata, Ryuji; Konno, Chisato; Suzuki, Masahiro; Takahashi, Sakae; Kaneita, Yoshitaka; Ohida, Takashi; Uchiyama, Makoto

2018-07-01

To investigate the relationship between unhealthy lifestyles factors and depressive symptoms among the general adult population in Japan. Participants were randomly selected from the Japanese general adult population. Data from 2334 people aged 20 years or older were analyzed. This cross-sectional survey was conducted in August and September 2009. Participants completed a face-to-face interview about unhealthy lifestyle factors, including lack of exercise, skipping breakfast, a poorly balanced diet, snacking between meals, insufficient sleep, current smoking, alcohol drinking, and obesity. Presence of depressive symptoms was defined as a score of ≥ 16 on the Japanese version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Relationships between unhealthy lifestyle factors and depressive symptoms were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusting for sociodemographic variables and other unhealthy lifestyle factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that insufficient sleep, a poorly balanced diet, snacking between meals and lack of exercise were significantly associated with the prevalence of depressive symptoms, with odds ratios ranging from 1.56 for lack of exercise to 3.98 for insufficient sleep. Since this study was a cross-sectional study, causal relationships could not be determined. These results suggest that promoting a healthy lifestyle focused on sleep, food intake and exercise may be important for individuals with depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-reported pigmentary phenotypes and race are significant but incomplete predictors of Fitzpatrick skin phototype in an ethnically diverse population.

PubMed

He, Steven Y; McCulloch, Charles E; Boscardin, W John; Chren, Mary-Margaret; Linos, Eleni; Arron, Sarah T

2014-10-01

Fitzpatrick skin phototype (FSPT) is the most common method used to assess sunburn risk and is an independent predictor of skin cancer risk. Because of a conventional assumption that FSPT is predictable based on pigmentary phenotypes, physicians frequently estimate FSPT based on patient appearance. We sought to determine the degree to which self-reported race and pigmentary phenotypes are predictive of FSPT in a large, ethnically diverse population. A cross-sectional survey collected responses from 3386 individuals regarding self-reported FSPT, pigmentary phenotypes, race, age, and sex. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine variables that significantly predict FSPT. Race, sex, skin color, eye color, and hair color are significant but weak independent predictors of FSPT (P<.0001). A multivariate model constructed using all independent predictors of FSPT only accurately predicted FSPT to within 1 point on the Fitzpatrick scale with 92% accuracy (weighted kappa statistic 0.53). Our study enriched for responses from ethnic minorities and does not fully represent the demographics of the US population. Patient self-reported race and pigmentary phenotypes are inaccurate predictors of sun sensitivity as defined by FSPT. There are limitations to using patient-reported race and appearance in predicting individual sunburn risk. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moments and Root-Mean-Square Error of the Bayesian MMSE Estimator of Classification Error in the Gaussian Model.

PubMed

Zollanvari, Amin; Dougherty, Edward R

2014-06-01

The most important aspect of any classifier is its error rate, because this quantifies its predictive capacity. Thus, the accuracy of error estimation is critical. Error estimation is problematic in small-sample classifier design because the error must be estimated using the same data from which the classifier has been designed. Use of prior knowledge, in the form of a prior distribution on an uncertainty class of feature-label distributions to which the true, but unknown, feature-distribution belongs, can facilitate accurate error estimation (in the mean-square sense) in circumstances where accurate completely model-free error estimation is impossible. This paper provides analytic asymptotically exact finite-sample approximations for various performance metrics of the resulting Bayesian Minimum Mean-Square-Error (MMSE) error estimator in the case of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) in the multivariate Gaussian model. These performance metrics include the first, second, and cross moments of the Bayesian MMSE error estimator with the true error of LDA, and therefore, the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) error of the estimator. We lay down the theoretical groundwork for Kolmogorov double-asymptotics in a Bayesian setting, which enables us to derive asymptotic expressions of the desired performance metrics. From these we produce analytic finite-sample approximations and demonstrate their accuracy via numerical examples. Various examples illustrate the behavior of these approximations and their use in determining the necessary sample size to achieve a desired RMS. The Supplementary Material contains derivations for some equations and added figures.

Sexual dimorphism of the mandible in a contemporary Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Dong, Hongmei; Deng, Mohong; Wang, WenPeng; Zhang, Ji; Mu, Jiao; Zhu, Guanghui

2015-10-01

A present limitation of forensic anthropology practice in China is the lack of population-specific criteria on contemporary human skeletons. In this study, a sample of 203 maxillofacial Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images, including 96 male and 107 female cases (20-65 years old), was analyzed to explore mandible sexual dimorphism in a population of contemporary adult Han Chinese to investigate the potential use of the mandible as sex indicator. A three-dimensional image from mandible CBCT scans was reconstructed using the SimPlant Pro 11.40 software. Nine linear and two angular parameters were measured. Discriminant function analysis (DFA) and logistic regression analysis (LRA) were used to develop the mathematics models for sex determination. All of the linear measurements studied and one angular measurement were found to be sexually dimorphic, with the maximum mandibular length and bi-condylar breadth being the most dimorphic by univariate DFA and LRA respectively. The cross-validated sex allocation accuracies on multivariate were ranged from 84.2% (direct DFA), 83.5% (direct LRA), 83.3% (stepwise DFA) to 80.5% (stepwise LRA). In general, multivariate DFA yielded a higher accuracy and LRA obtained a lower sex bias, and therefore both DFA and LRA had their own advantages for sex determination by the mandible in this sample. These results suggest that the mandible expresses sexual dimorphism in the contemporary adult Han Chinese population, indicating an excellent sexual discriminatory ability. Cone beam computed tomography scanning can be used as alternative source for contemporary osteometric techniques. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of and risk factors for pterygia in a rural Northern Chinese population.

PubMed

Li, Zhijian; Wu, Shubin; Mai, Jieying; Xu, Keke; Sun, Ying; Song, Zhen; Jin, Di; Wang, Haijing; Liu, Ping

2014-12-01

To determine the prevalence of and associated risk factors for pterygia development in a high-latitude-dwelling Northern Chinese population. A prospective population-based survey was conducted between November 2008 and July 2009. A stratified, clustered, randomized sampling procedure was used to select 8445 subjects, aged ≥18 years, all with diagnosed, graded pterygia. Risk factors associated with the occurrence of pterygia were evaluated according to logistic regression models. A total of 8445 residents (aged 18-94 years) from the Heilongjiang Province, China, participated in the study. Of these, 208 (2.5%) had at least one diagnosed pterygium. The prevalence of bilateral pterygia was 1.2% (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.0-1.4%). According to multivariable analysis, pterygia were significantly more likely to occur in persons aged 70-94 years than in those aged 18-39 years (odds ratio, OR, 29.0, 95% CI 13.6-61.6, p < 0.01). Pterygia were significantly associated with male sex (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6, p < 0.01) and outdoor work (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.6, p < 0.01). Multivariable analysis indicated that pterygia were not associated with smoking status (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.8-1.4) or alcohol intake (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7-1.4, p > 0.05). This study details the occurrence of and risk factors for pterygia in a Chinese population residing in a rural, high-latitude, cold-climate area of Northern China. The primary risk factors for pterygia were age, male sex, and outdoor work.

Prevalence and associated factors with alcohol use disorders among adults: a population-based study in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Reisdorfer, Emilene; Büchele, Fátima; Pires, Rodrigo Otávio Moretti; Boing, Antonio Fernando

2012-09-01

The study aimed to describe the prevalence of alcohol use disorders in an adult population from Brazil and its association with demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral variables and health conditions. A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted with adults (20 to 59 years) of a medium-sized city in Southern Brazil with a random sample of 1,720 individuals. Cluster sampling was done in two stages: census tract first and household second. Alcohol use disorders were measured using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and associations were tested with selected variables by Poisson Regression. Results of multivariate analysis were expressed as prevalence ratios. The prevalence of alcohol use disorders in the population was 18.4% (95% CI: 16.6% - 20.3%), higher among men (29.9%) than in women (9.3%). The prevalence of abstinence was 30.6%; 6.8% of respondents had already caused problems to themselves or to others after drinking; and 10.3% reported that a relative, friend or doctor had already shown concern on their drinking. After multivariate analysis, an association with alcohol use disorders remained for: being male, age 20 to 29 years, being single, declaring to be light-skinned blacks and being an ex-smoker or current smoker. The prevalence of alcohol use disorders identified is high compared with other similar studies, with differences according to being male, age 20 to 29, skin color and tobacco use. These issues must be considered in formulating public health policies aimed at reducing problems related to alcohol use.

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: a population-based prospective study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. Methods A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. Results During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. Conclusions These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method. PMID:24666820

Access, literacy and behavioural correlates of poor self-rated oral health amongst an indigenous south Australian population.

PubMed

Jones, K; Parker, E J; Jamieson, L M

2014-09-01

To better understand the determinants of self-rated oral health within an Indigenous population by: 1, examining potential individual-level correlates of socio-demographic, health behaviours, dental care access and oral health literacy-related outcomes with self-rated oral health; and, 2, examining the relative contribution of these domains to self-rated oral health in multivariable modelling. We conducted nested logistic regression analyses on self-reported status of 'fair or poor' versus 'better' oral health using data from a convenience sample of rural dwelling Indigenous Australians (n = 468). Data were collected on background characteristics, health behaviours, access to dental care, oral health literacy-related outcome variables and REALD 30, an oral health literacy scale. Overall 37.0 % of the Indigenous adult population reported fair or poor oral health. In multivariable modelling, risk indicators for fair or poor self-rated oral health that persisted after adjusting for other covariates included being aged 38+ years (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.9,4.6), holding a Government Health Concession card (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.1,4.5), avoiding the dentist due to financial constraints (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.4,3.6), not knowing how to make an emergency dental visit (OR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1,2.7) and poor understanding of the prevention of dental disease (OR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1,2.7). In this vulnerable population, risk indicators contributing to poor self-rated oral health included socio-demographic, dental care access and oral health literacy-related factors. Health behaviours were not significant.

Protection of obstetric dimensions in a small-bodied human sample.

PubMed

Kurki, Helen K

2007-08-01

In human females, the bony pelvis must find a balance between being small (narrow) for efficient bipedal locomotion, and being large to accommodate a relatively large newborn. It has been shown that within a given population, taller/larger-bodied women have larger pelvic canals. This study investigates whether in a population where small body size is the norm, pelvic geometry (size and shape), on average, shows accommodation to protect the obstetric canal. Osteometric data were collected from the pelves, femora, and clavicles (body size indicators) of adult skeletons representing a range of adult body size. Samples include Holocene Later Stone Age (LSA) foragers from southern Africa (n = 28 females, 31 males), Portuguese from the Coimbra-identified skeletal collection (CISC) (n = 40 females, 40 males) and European-Americans from the Hamann-Todd osteological collection (H-T) (n = 40 females, 40 males). Patterns of sexual dimorphism are similar in the samples. Univariate and multivariate analyses of raw and Mosimann shape-variables indicate that compared to the CISC and H-T females, the LSA females have relatively large midplane and outlet canal planes (particularly posterior and A-P lengths). The LSA males also follow this pattern, although with absolutely smaller pelves in multivariate space. The CISC females, who have equally small stature, but larger body mass, do not show the same type of pelvic canal size and shape accommodation. The results suggest that adaptive allometric modeling in at least some small-bodied populations protects the obstetric canal. These findings support the use of population-specific attributes in the clinical evaluation of obstetric risk. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Critical shoulder angle in an East Asian population: correlation to the incidence of rotator cuff tear and glenohumeral osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Shinagawa, Kiyotsugu; Hatta, Taku; Yamamoto, Nobuyuki; Kawakami, Jun; Shiota, Yuki; Mineta, Mitsuyoshi; Itoi, Eiji

2018-05-03

Focus has recently been on the critical shoulder angle (CSA) as a factor related to rotator cuff tear and osteoarthritis (OA) in the European population. However, whether this relationship is observed in the Asian population is unclear. The correlation between the CSAs measured on anteroposterior radiographs and the presence or absence of rotator cuff tears or OA changes was assessed in 295 patients. Rotator cuff tears were diagnosed with magnetic resonance imaging or ultrasonography. OA findings were classified using the Samilson-Prieto classification. The CSAs among the patients with rotator cuff tears, OA changes, and those without pathologies were compared. Multivariable analyses were used to clarify the potential risks for these pathologies. The mean CSA with rotator cuff tear (33.9° ± 4.1°) was significantly greater than that without a rotator cuff tear (32.3° ± 4.5°; P = .002). Multivariable analysis also showed that a greater CSA had a significantly increased risk of rotator cuff tears, with the odds ratio of 1.08 per degree. OA findings showed no significant correlation to the CSAs. Our study demonstrates that the CSA is greater in those with a rotator cuff tear than in those without a tear or OA changes, which may be an independent risk factor for the incidence of rotator cuff tears in the Japanese population. Copyright © 2018 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual dimorphism in relation to big-game hunting and economy in modern human populations.

PubMed

Collier, S

1993-08-01

Postcranial skeletal data from two recent Eskimo populations are used to test David Frayer's model of sexual dimorphism reduction in Europe between the Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic. Frayer argued that a change from big-game hunting and adoption of new technology in the Mesolithic reduced selection for large body size in males and led to a reduction in skeletal sexual dimorphism. Though aspects of Frayer's work have been criticized in the literature, the association of big-game hunting and high sexual dimorphism is untested. This study employs univariate and multivariate analysis to test that association by examining sexual dimorphism of cranial and postcranial bones of two recent Alaskan Eskimo populations, one being big-game (whale and other large marine mammal) hunting people, and the second being salmon fishing, riverine people. While big-game hunting influences skeletal robusticity, it cannot be said to lead to greater sexual dimorphism generally. The two populations had different relative sexual dimorphism levels for different parts of the body. Notably, the big-game hunting (whaling) Eskimos had the lower multivariate dimorphism in the humerus, which could be expected to be the structure under greatest exertion by such hunting in males. While the exertions of the whale hunting economic activities led to high skeletal robusticity, as predicted by Frayer's model, this was true of the females as well as the males, resulting in low sexual dimorphism in some features. Females are half the sexual dimorphism equation, and they cannot be seen as constants in any model of economic behavior.

The Risk of Developing Diabetes Mellitus in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Eder, Lihi; Chandran, Vinod; Cook, Richard; Gladman, Dafna D

2017-03-01

To estimate the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in comparison with the general population and to assess whether the level of disease activity over time predicts the development of DM in these patients. A cohort analysis was conducted in patients followed in a large PsA clinic from 1978 to 2014. The prevalence of DM in the patients was compared with the general population of Ontario, Canada, and the age-standardized prevalence ratio (SPR) was calculated. For the assessment of risk factors for DM, time-weighted arithmetic mean (AM) levels of PsA-related disease activity measures were assessed as predictors for the development of DM. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute HR for incident DM after controlling for potential confounders. A total of 1305 patients were included in the analysis. The SPR of DM in PsA compared with the general population in Ontario was 1.43 (p = 0.002). Of the 1065 patients who were included in the time-to-event analysis, 73 patients were observed to develop DM. Based on multivariable analyses, AM tender joint count (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.18, p = 0.02) and AM erythrocyte sedimentation rate (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03-1.41, p = 0.02) predicted the development of DM. The prevalence of DM is higher in patients with PsA compared with the general population. Patients with elevated levels of disease activity are at higher risk of developing DM.

Feature combinations and the divergence criterion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decell, H. P., Jr.; Mayekar, S. M.

1976-01-01

Classifying large quantities of multidimensional remotely sensed agricultural data requires efficient and effective classification techniques and the construction of certain transformations of a dimension reducing, information preserving nature. The construction of transformations that minimally degrade information (i.e., class separability) is described. Linear dimension reducing transformations for multivariate normal populations are presented. Information content is measured by divergence.

Correlates of Depressive Disorders in the Quebec General Population 6 to 14 Years of Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergeron, Lise; Valla, Jean-Pierre; Smolla, Nicole; Piche, Genevieve; Berthiaume, Claude; St.-Georges, Marie

2007-01-01

There are relatively few community-based epidemiological studies in which correlates of depressive disorders were identified through multivariate analyses in children and adolescents aged 6-14 years. Moreover, several family characteristics (e.g., parent-child relationship) have never been explored in this regard. The purpose of this study was…

The Decision to Adopt Educational Technology in Technical Education: A Multivariate Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beasley, Shannon Wilson Sewell

2016-01-01

Since the seminal work of Davis in 1989 produced the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), researchers have sought to extend the framework and use the resulting models to describe the predictors of technology adoption specific to various populations. Although the TAM has been used to understand the adoption of technology in higher education, most of…

Does Concern Motivate Behavior Change?: Exploring the Relationship between Physical Activity and Body Mass Index among Low-Income Housing Residents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tamers, Sara L.; Allen, Jennifer; Yang, May; Stoddard, Anne; Harley, Amy; Sorensen, Glorian

2014-01-01

Objective: To explore relationships between concerns and physical activity and body mass index (BMI) among a racially/ethnically diverse low-income population. Method: A cross-sectional survey documented behavioral risks among racially/ethnically diverse low-income residents in the Boston area (2005-2009). Multivariable logistic regressions were…

Math and Science Achievement in English Language Learners: Multivariate Latent Growth Modeling of Predictors, Mediators, and Moderators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guglielmi, R. Sergio

2012-01-01

The effectiveness of various strategies for educating the growing U.S. population of English language learners (ELLs) has attracted a great deal of controversy. Bilingual education theory posits that retention and continued development of native language (L1) skills facilitate academic achievement through two mediating mechanisms. First, L1…

The Media and Suicide: Evidence Based on Population Data over 9 Years in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsai, Jui-Feng

2010-01-01

The relationship between the regional distribution densities of different media and the suicide death rate was explored by analyzing the annual total, male, and female suicide rates and media densities from 23 cities/counties in Taiwan during 1998-2006 by univariate and multivariate regression adjusted for five socioeconomic factors. The regional…

Relationship of Source Selection Methods to Contract Outcomes: an Analysis of Air Force Source Selection

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

of squares more difficult. There are, however, solutions to these issues. A weighted mean can be used in place of the grand mean1 and the STATA ...multivariate test of means provided in STATA 12.1. This test checks whether or not population variances and covariances of both DVs (PALT and CPARS

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernardes, A.T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through themore » Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different reproductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.« less

Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations.

PubMed

Lande, R

1998-01-01

A model is developed for alternate fixations of mildly deleterious and wild-type alleles arising by forward and reverse mutation in a finite population. For almost all parameter values, this gives an equilibrium load that agrees closely with the general expression derived from diffusion theory. Nearly neutral mutations with selection coefficient a few times larger than 1/(2N(e)) do the most damage by increasing the equilibrium load. The model of alternate fixations facilitates dynamical analysis of the expected load and the mean time to extinction in a population that has been suddenly reduced from a very large size to a small size. Reverse mutation can substantially improve population viability, increasing the mean time to extinction by an order of magnitude or more, but because many mutations are irreversible the effects may not be large. Populations with initially high mean fitness and small effective size, N(e) below a few hundred individuals, may be at serious risk of extinction from fixation of deleterious mutations within 10(3) to 10(4) generations.

Health Insurance Coverage and Its Impact on Medical Cost: Observations from the Floating Population in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yinjun; Kang, Bowei; Liu, Yawen; Li, Yichong; Shi, Guoqing; Shen, Tao; Jiang, Yong; Zhang, Mei; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Limin

2014-01-01

Background China has the world's largest floating (migrant) population, which has characteristics largely different from the rest of the population. Our goal is to study health insurance coverage and its impact on medical cost for this population. Methods A telephone survey was conducted in 2012. 644 subjects were surveyed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted on insurance coverage and medical cost. Results 82.2% of the surveyed subjects were covered by basic insurance at hometowns with hukou or at residences. Subjects' characteristics including age, education, occupation, and presence of chronic diseases were associated with insurance coverage. After controlling for confounders, insurance coverage was not significantly associated with gross or out-of-pocket medical cost. Conclusion For the floating population, health insurance coverage needs to be improved. Policy interventions are needed so that health insurance can have a more effective protective effect on cost. PMID:25386914

Constrained evolution of the sex comb in Drosophila simulans.

PubMed

Maraqa, M S; Griffin, R; Sharma, M D; Wilson, A J; Hunt, J; Hosken, D J; House, C M

2017-02-01

Male fitness is dependent on sexual traits that influence mate acquisition (precopulatory sexual selection) and paternity (post-copulatory sexual selection), and although many studies have documented the form of selection in one or the other of these arenas, fewer have done it for both. Nonetheless, it appears that the dominant form of sexual selection is directional, although theoretically, populations should converge on peaks in the fitness surface, where selection is stabilizing. Many factors, however, can prevent populations from reaching adaptive peaks. Genetic constraints can be important if they prevent the development of highest fitness phenotypes, as can the direction of selection if it reverses across episodes of selection. In this study, we examine the evidence that these processes influence the evolution of the multivariate sex comb morphology of male Drosophila simulans. To do this, we conduct a quantitative genetic study together with a multivariate selection analysis to infer how the genetic architecture and selection interact. We find abundant genetic variance and covariance in elements of the sex comb. However, there was little evidence for directional selection in either arena. Significant nonlinear selection was detected prior to copulation when males were mated to nonvirgin females, and post-copulation during sperm offence (again with males mated to nonvirgins). Thus, contrary to our predictions, the evolution of the D. simulans sex comb is limited neither by genetic constraints nor by antagonistic selection between pre- and post-copulatory arenas, but nonlinear selection on the multivariate phenotype may prevent sex combs from evolving to reach some fitness maximizing optima. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Yellow Tongue Coating is Associated With Diabetes Mellitus Among Japanese Non-smoking Men and Women: The Toon Health Study.

PubMed

Tomooka, Kiyohide; Saito, Isao; Furukawa, Shinya; Maruyama, Koutatsu; Eguchi, Eri; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tanigawa, Takeshi

2018-06-05

Yellow tongue coating is one of the clinical signs for diabetes mellitus according to traditional East Asian medicine. Few reports have been available on the association between yellow tongue coating and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the general population. We examined that association among population samples of non-smoking men and women. The study subjects were Japanese non-smoking men (n = 315) and women (n = 654) aged 30-79 years who resided in Toon city and participated in the Toon Health Study from July 2011 through November 2014. Tongue coating was assessed by a nationally licensed acupuncturist and classified into three categories of white (normal), light yellow, and yellow. We performed an oral glucose tolerance test to confirm the presence of diabetes mellitus and prediabetes. The associations between yellow tongue coating and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and prediabetes were examined using multivariable logistic regression analyses, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, drinking status, and physical activity. The multivariable odds ratios of diabetes mellitus were 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-2.67) for light yellow tongue coating and 2.23 (95% CI, 1.16-4.30) for yellow tongue coating compared with white tongue coating. The respective multivariable odds ratios of prediabetes were 1.13 (95% CI, 0.80-1.61) and 1.43 (95% CI, 0.96-2.12). Yellow tongue coating was associated with higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus and tended to be associated with that of prediabetes among Japanese non-smoking men and women.

A mixed model for the relationship between climate and human cranial form.

PubMed

Katz, David C; Grote, Mark N; Weaver, Timothy D

2016-08-01

We expand upon a multivariate mixed model from quantitative genetics in order to estimate the magnitude of climate effects in a global sample of recent human crania. In humans, genetic distances are correlated with distances based on cranial form, suggesting that population structure influences both genetic and quantitative trait variation. Studies controlling for this structure have demonstrated significant underlying associations of cranial distances with ecological distances derived from climate variables. However, to assess the biological importance of an ecological predictor, estimates of effect size and uncertainty in the original units of measurement are clearly preferable to significance claims based on units of distance. Unfortunately, the magnitudes of ecological effects are difficult to obtain with distance-based methods, while models that produce estimates of effect size generally do not scale to high-dimensional data like cranial shape and form. Using recent innovations that extend quantitative genetics mixed models to highly multivariate observations, we estimate morphological effects associated with a climate predictor for a subset of the Howells craniometric dataset. Several measurements, particularly those associated with cranial vault breadth, show a substantial linear association with climate, and the multivariate model incorporating a climate predictor is preferred in model comparison. Previous studies demonstrated the existence of a relationship between climate and cranial form. The mixed model quantifies this relationship concretely. Evolutionary questions that require population structure and phylogeny to be disentangled from potential drivers of selection may be particularly well addressed by mixed models. Am J Phys Anthropol 160:593-603, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Acoustic neuroma: potential risk factors and audiometric surveillance in the aluminium industry

PubMed Central

Taiwo, Oyebode; Galusha, Deron; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Kirsche, Sharon; Cantley, Linda; Slade, Martin D; Cullen, Mark R; Donoghue, A Michael

2014-01-01

Objectives To look for an association between acoustic neuroma (AN) and participation in a hearing conservation programme (HCP) and also for an association between AN and possible occupational risk factors in the aluminium industry. Methods We conducted a case–control analysis of a population of US aluminium production workers in 8 smelters and 43 other plants. Using insurance claims data, 97 cases of AN were identified between 1996 and 2009. Each was matched with four controls. Covariates included participation in a HCP, working in an aluminium smelter, working in an electrical job and hearing loss. Results In the bivariate analyses, covariates associated with AN were participation in the HCP (OR=1.72; 95% CI 1.09 to 2.69) and smelter work (OR=1.88; 95% CI 1.06 to 3.36). Electrical work was not significant (OR=1.60; 95% CI 0.65 to 3.94). Owing to high participation in the HCP in smelters, multivariate subanalyses were required. In the multivariate analyses, participation in the HCP was the only statistically significant risk factor for AN. In the multivariate analysis restricted to employees not working in a smelter, the OR was 1.81 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.17). Hearing loss, an indirect measure of in-ear noise dose, was not predictive of AN. Conclusions Our results suggest the incidental detection of previously undiagnosed tumours in workers who participated in the company-sponsored HCP. The increased medical surveillance among this population of workers most likely introduced detection bias, leading to the identification of AN cases that would have otherwise remained undetected. PMID:25015928

A neuromorphic network for generic multivariate data classification

PubMed Central

Schmuker, Michael; Pfeil, Thomas; Nawrot, Martin Paul

2014-01-01

Computational neuroscience has uncovered a number of computational principles used by nervous systems. At the same time, neuromorphic hardware has matured to a state where fast silicon implementations of complex neural networks have become feasible. En route to future technical applications of neuromorphic computing the current challenge lies in the identification and implementation of functional brain algorithms. Taking inspiration from the olfactory system of insects, we constructed a spiking neural network for the classification of multivariate data, a common problem in signal and data analysis. In this model, real-valued multivariate data are converted into spike trains using “virtual receptors” (VRs). Their output is processed by lateral inhibition and drives a winner-take-all circuit that supports supervised learning. VRs are conveniently implemented in software, whereas the lateral inhibition and classification stages run on accelerated neuromorphic hardware. When trained and tested on real-world datasets, we find that the classification performance is on par with a naïve Bayes classifier. An analysis of the network dynamics shows that stable decisions in output neuron populations are reached within less than 100 ms of biological time, matching the time-to-decision reported for the insect nervous system. Through leveraging a population code, the network tolerates the variability of neuronal transfer functions and trial-to-trial variation that is inevitably present on the hardware system. Our work provides a proof of principle for the successful implementation of a functional spiking neural network on a configurable neuromorphic hardware system that can readily be applied to real-world computing problems. PMID:24469794

Population differences in the postcrania of modern South Africans and the implications for ancestry estimation.

PubMed

Liebenberg, Leandi; L'Abbé, Ericka N; Stull, Kyra E

2015-12-01

The cranium is widely recognized as the most important skeletal element to use when evaluating population differences and estimating ancestry. However, the cranium is not always intact or available for analysis, which emphasizes the need for postcranial alternatives. The purpose of this study was to quantify postcraniometric differences among South Africans that can be used to estimate ancestry. Thirty-nine standard measurements from 11 postcranial bones were collected from 360 modern black, white and coloured South Africans; the sex and ancestry distribution were equal. Group differences were explored with analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's honestly significant difference (HSD) test. Linear and flexible discriminant analysis (LDA and FDA, respectively) were conducted with bone models as well as numerous multivariate subsets to identify the model and method that yielded the highest correct classifications. Leave-one-out (LDA) and k-fold (k=10; FDA) cross-validation with equal priors were used for all models. ANOVA and Tukey's HSD results reveal statistically significant differences between at least two of the three groups for the majority of the variables, with varying degrees of group overlap. Bone models, which consisted of all measurements per bone, resulted in low accuracies that ranged from 46% to 63% (LDA) and 41% to 66% (FDA). In contrast, the multivariate subsets, which consisted of different variable combinations from all elements, achieved accuracies as high as 85% (LDA) and 87% (FDA). Thus, when using a multivariate approach, the postcranial skeleton can distinguish among three modern South African groups with high accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

VanderWalde, Noam A.; Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Meyer, Anne Marie

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare chemoradiation therapy (CRT) with radiation therapy (RT) only in an older patient population with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods and Materials: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database (1992-2007), we identified a retrospective cohort of nonmetastatic HNSCC patients and divided them into treatment groups. Comparisons were made between CRT and RT cohorts. Propensity scores for CRT were estimated from covariates associated with receipt of treatment using multivariable logistic regression. Standardized mortality ratio weights (SMRW) were created from the propensity scores and used to balance groupsmore » on measured confounders. Multivariable and SMR-weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of death for receipt of CRT versus RT among the whole group and for separate patient and tumor categories. Results: The final cohort of 10,599 patients was 68% male and 89% white. Median age was 74 years. Seventy-four percent were treated with RT, 26% were treated with CRT. Median follow-up points for CRT and RT survivors were 4.6 and 6.3 years, respectively. On multivariable analysis, HR for death with CRT was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.20; P<.01). Using the SMRW model, the HR for death with CRT was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.02-1.15; P=.01). Conclusions: Although the addition of chemotherapy to radiation has proven efficacious in many randomized controlled trials, it may be less effective in an older patient population treated outside of a controlled trial setting.« less

Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment in Urban Population of Delhi, India

PubMed Central

Gupta, Noopur; Vashist, Praveen; Malhotra, Sumit; Senjam, Suraj Singh; Misra, Vasundhara; Bhardwaj, Amit

2015-01-01

Purpose To determine the prevalence, causes and associated demographic factors related to visual impairment amongst the urban population of New Delhi, India. Methods A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in East Delhi district using cluster random sampling methodology. This Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment (RAVI) survey involved examination of all individuals aged 40 years and above in 24 randomly selected clusters of the district. Visual acuity (VA) assessment and comprehensive ocular examination were done during the door-to-door survey. A questionnaire was used to collect personal and demographic information of the study population. Blindness and Visual Impairment was defined as presenting VA <3/60and <6/18 in the better eye, respectively. Descriptive statistics were computed along with multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine associated factors for visual impairment. Results Of 2421 subjects enumerated, 2331 (96.3%) were available for ophthalmic examination. Among those examined, 49.3% were males. The prevalence of visual impairment (VI) in the study population, was 11.4% (95% C.I. 10.1, 12.7) and that of blindness was 1.2% (95% C.I. 0.8, 1.6). Uncorrected refractive error was the leading cause of VI accounting for 53.4% of all VI followed by cataract (33.8%). With multivariable logistic regression, the odds of having VI increased with age (OR= 24.6[95% C.I.: 14.9, 40.7]; p<0.001). Illiterate participants were more likely to have VI [OR= 1.5 (95% C.I.: 1.1,2.1)] when compared to educated participants. Conclusions The first implementation of the RAVI methodology in a North Indian population revealed that the burden of visual impairment is considerable in this region despite availability of adequate eye care facilities. Awareness generation and simple interventions like cataract surgery and provision of spectacles will help to eliminate the major causes of blindness and visual impairment in this region. PMID:25915659

Rapid assessment of visual impairment in urban population of Delhi, India.

PubMed

Gupta, Noopur; Vashist, Praveen; Malhotra, Sumit; Senjam, Suraj Singh; Misra, Vasundhara; Bhardwaj, Amit

2015-01-01

To determine the prevalence, causes and associated demographic factors related to visual impairment amongst the urban population of New Delhi, India. A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in East Delhi district using cluster random sampling methodology. This Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment (RAVI) survey involved examination of all individuals aged 40 years and above in 24 randomly selected clusters of the district. Visual acuity (VA) assessment and comprehensive ocular examination were done during the door-to-door survey. A questionnaire was used to collect personal and demographic information of the study population. Blindness and Visual Impairment was defined as presenting VA < 3/60 and < 6/18 in the better eye, respectively. Descriptive statistics were computed along with multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine associated factors for visual impairment. Of 2421 subjects enumerated, 2331 (96.3%) were available for ophthalmic examination. Among those examined, 49.3% were males. The prevalence of visual impairment (VI) in the study population, was 11.4% (95% C.I. 10.1, 12.7) and that of blindness was 1.2% (95% C.I. 0.8, 1.6). Uncorrected refractive error was the leading cause of VI accounting for 53.4% of all VI followed by cataract (33.8%). With multivariable logistic regression, the odds of having VI increased with age (OR = 24.6[95% C.I.: 14.9, 40.7]; p < 0.001). Illiterate participants were more likely to have VI [OR = 1.5 (95% C.I.: 1.1,2.1)] when compared to educated participants. The first implementation of the RAVI methodology in a North Indian population revealed that the burden of visual impairment is considerable in this region despite availability of adequate eye care facilities. Awareness generation and simple interventions like cataract surgery and provision of spectacles will help to eliminate the major causes of blindness and visual impairment in this region.

The population structure of Escherichia coli isolated from subtropical and temperate soils.

PubMed

Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N; Yan, Tao; Hamilton, Matthew J; Ishii, Satoshi; Fujioka, Roger S; Whitman, Richard L; Sadowsky, Michael J

2012-02-15

While genotypically-distinct naturalized Escherichia coli strains have been shown to occur in riparian soils of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior watersheds, comparative analyses of E. coli populations in diverse soils across a range of geographic and climatic conditions have not been investigated. The main objectives of this study were to: (a) examine the population structure and genetic relatedness of E. coli isolates collected from different soil types on a tropical island (Hawaii), and (b) determine if E. coli populations from Hawaii and temperate soils (Indiana, Minnesota) shared similar genotypes that may be reflective of biome-related soil conditions. DNA fingerprint and multivariate statistical analyses were used to examine the population structure and genotypic characteristics of the E. coli isolates. About 33% (98 of 293) of the E. coli from different soil types and locations on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, had unique DNA fingerprints, indicating that these bacteria were relatively diverse; the Shannon diversity index for the population was 4.03. Nearly 60% (171 of 293) of the E. coli isolates from Hawaii clustered into two major groups and the rest, with two or more isolates, fell into one of 22 smaller groups, or individual lineages. Multivariate analysis of variance of 89, 21, and 106 unique E. coli DNA fingerprints for Hawaii, Indiana, and Minnesota soils, respectively, showed that isolates formed tight cohesive groups, clustering mainly by location. However, there were several instances of clonal isolates being shared between geographically different locations. Thus, while nearly identical E. coli strains were shared between disparate climatologically- and geographically-distinct locations, a vast majority of the soil E. coli strains were genotypically diverse and were likely derived from separate lineages. This supports the hypothesis that these bacteria are not unique and multiple genotypes can readily adapt to become part of the soil autochthonous microflora. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The population structure of Escherichia coli isolated from subtropical and temperate soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N.; Yan, Tao; Hamilton, Matthew J.; Ishii, Satoshi; Fujioka, Roger S.; Whitman, Richard L.; Sadowsky, Michael J.

2012-01-01

While genotypically-distinct naturalized Escherichia coli strains have been shown to occur in riparian soils of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior watersheds, comparative analyses of E. coli populations in diverse soils across a range of geographic and climatic conditions have not been investigated. The main objectives of this study were to: (a) examine the population structure and genetic relatedness of E. coli isolates collected from different soil types on a tropical island (Hawaii), and (b) determine if E. coli populations from Hawaii and temperate soils (Indiana, Minnesota) shared similar genotypes that may be reflective of biome-related soil conditions. DNA fingerprint and multivariate statistical analyses were used to examine the population structure and genotypic characteristics of the E. coli isolates. About 33% (98 of 293) of the E. coli from different soil types and locations on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, had unique DNA fingerprints, indicating that these bacteria were relatively diverse; the Shannon diversity index for the population was 4.03. Nearly 60% (171 of 293) of the E. coli isolates from Hawaii clustered into two major groups and the rest, with two or more isolates, fell into one of 22 smaller groups, or individual lineages. Multivariate analysis of variance of 89, 21, and 106 unique E. coli DNA fingerprints for Hawaii, Indiana, and Minnesota soils, respectively, showed that isolates formed tight cohesive groups, clustering mainly by location. However, there were several instances of clonal isolates being shared between geographically different locations. Thus, while nearly identical E. coli strains were shared between disparate climatologically- and geographically-distinct locations, a vast majority of the soil E. coli strains were genotypically diverse and were likely derived from separate lineages. This supports the hypothesis that these bacteria are not unique and multiple genotypes can readily adapt to become part of the soil autochthonous microflora.

Construction and validation of a three-dimensional finite element model of degenerative scoliosis.

PubMed

Zheng, Jie; Yang, Yonghong; Lou, Shuliang; Zhang, Dongsheng; Liao, Shenghui

2015-12-24

With the aging of the population, degenerative scoliosis (DS) incidence rate is increasing. In recent years, increasing research on this topic has been carried out, yet biomechanical research on the subject is seldom seen and in vitro biomechanical model of DS nearly cannot be available. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a complete three-dimensional finite element model of DS in order to build the digital platform for further biomechanical study. A 55-year-old female DS patient (Suer Pan, ID number was P141986) was selected for this study. This study was performed in accordance with the ethical standards of Declaration of Helsinki and its amendments and was approved by the local ethics committee (117 hospital of PLA ethics committee). Spiral computed tomography (CT) scanning was conducted on the patient's lumbar spine from the T12 to S1. CT images were then imported into a finite element modeling system. A three-dimensional solid model was then formed from segmentation of the CT scan. The three-dimensional model of each vertebra was then meshed, and material properties were assigned to each element according to the pathological characteristics of DS. Loads and boundary conditions were then applied in such a manner as to simulate in vitro biomechanical experiments conducted on lumbar segments. The results of the model were then compared with experimental results in order to validate the model. An integral three-dimensional finite element model of DS was built successfully, consisting of 113,682 solid elements, 686 cable elements, 33,329 shell elements, 4968 target elements, 4968 contact elements, totaling 157,635 elements, and 197,374 nodes. The model accurately described the physical features of DS and was geometrically similar to the object of study. The results of analysis with the finite element model agreed closely with in vitro experiments, validating the accuracy of the model. The three-dimensional finite element model of DS built in this study is clear, reliable, and effective for further biomechanical simulation study of DS.

Appendicular and whole body lean mass outcomes are associated with finite element analysis-derived bone strength at the distal radius and tibia in adults aged 40years and older.

PubMed

Gibbs, Jenna C; Giangregorio, Lora M; Wong, Andy K O; Josse, Robert G; Cheung, Angela M

2017-10-01

The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to determine how appendicular lean mass index (ALMI), and whole body lean (LMI) and fat mass indices (FMI) associate with estimated bone strength outcomes at the distal radius and tibia in adults aged 40 years and older. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans were performed to determine body composition, including whole body lean and fat mass, and appendicular lean mass. ALMI (appendicular lean mass/height 2 ), LMI (lean tissue mass/height 2 ) and FMI (fat mass/height 2 ) were calculated. High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) scans were performed to assess bone structural properties at the distal radius and tibia. Using finite element analysis, failure load (N), stiffness (N/mm), ultimate stress (MPa), and cortical-to-trabecular load ratio were estimated from HRpQCT scans. The associations between body composition (ALMI, LMI, FMI) and estimated bone strength were examined using bivariate and multivariable linear regression analyses adjusting for age, sex, and other confounding variables. In 197 participants (127 women; mean±SD, age: 69.5±10.3y, body mass index: 27.95±4.95kg/m 2 , ALMI: 7.31±1.31kg/m 2 ), ALMI and LMI were significantly associated with failure load at the distal radius and tibia (explained 39%-48% of the variance) and remained significant after adjusting for confounding variables and multiple testing (R 2 =0.586-0.645, p<0.001). ALMI, LMI, and FMI did not have significant associations with ultimate stress in our multivariable models. FMI was significantly associated with cortical-to-trabecular load ratio at the distal radius and tibia (explained 6%-12% of the variance) and remained significant after adjusting for confounders and multiple testing (R 2 =0.208-0.243, p<0.001). FMI was no longer significantly associated with failure load after adjusting for confounders. These findings suggest that ALMI and LMI are important determinants of estimated bone strength, particularly failure load, at the distal radius and tibia, and may contribute to preservation of bone strength in middle-to-late adulthood. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evolution of multivariate maternal effects.

PubMed

Kuijper, Bram; Johnstone, Rufus A; Townley, Stuart

2014-04-01

There is a growing interest in predicting the social and ecological contexts that favor the evolution of maternal effects. Most predictions focus, however, on maternal effects that affect only a single character, whereas the evolution of maternal effects is poorly understood in the presence of suites of interacting traits. To overcome this, we simulate the evolution of multivariate maternal effects (captured by the matrix M) in a fluctuating environment. We find that the rate of environmental fluctuations has a substantial effect on the properties of M: in slowly changing environments, offspring are selected to have a multivariate phenotype roughly similar to the maternal phenotype, so that M is characterized by positive dominant eigenvalues; by contrast, rapidly changing environments favor Ms with dominant eigenvalues that are negative, as offspring favor a phenotype which substantially differs from the maternal phenotype. Moreover, when fluctuating selection on one maternal character is temporally delayed relative to selection on other traits, we find a striking pattern of cross-trait maternal effects in which maternal characters influence not only the same character in offspring, but also other offspring characters. Additionally, when selection on one character contains more stochastic noise relative to selection on other traits, large cross-trait maternal effects evolve from those maternal traits that experience the smallest amounts of noise. The presence of these cross-trait maternal effects shows that individual maternal effects cannot be studied in isolation, and that their study in a multivariate context may provide important insights about the nature of past selection. Our results call for more studies that measure multivariate maternal effects in wild populations.

The Evolution of Multivariate Maternal Effects

PubMed Central

Kuijper, Bram; Johnstone, Rufus A.; Townley, Stuart

2014-01-01

There is a growing interest in predicting the social and ecological contexts that favor the evolution of maternal effects. Most predictions focus, however, on maternal effects that affect only a single character, whereas the evolution of maternal effects is poorly understood in the presence of suites of interacting traits. To overcome this, we simulate the evolution of multivariate maternal effects (captured by the matrix M) in a fluctuating environment. We find that the rate of environmental fluctuations has a substantial effect on the properties of M: in slowly changing environments, offspring are selected to have a multivariate phenotype roughly similar to the maternal phenotype, so that M is characterized by positive dominant eigenvalues; by contrast, rapidly changing environments favor Ms with dominant eigenvalues that are negative, as offspring favor a phenotype which substantially differs from the maternal phenotype. Moreover, when fluctuating selection on one maternal character is temporally delayed relative to selection on other traits, we find a striking pattern of cross-trait maternal effects in which maternal characters influence not only the same character in offspring, but also other offspring characters. Additionally, when selection on one character contains more stochastic noise relative to selection on other traits, large cross-trait maternal effects evolve from those maternal traits that experience the smallest amounts of noise. The presence of these cross-trait maternal effects shows that individual maternal effects cannot be studied in isolation, and that their study in a multivariate context may provide important insights about the nature of past selection. Our results call for more studies that measure multivariate maternal effects in wild populations. PMID:24722346

Comparison of Analysis and Quantification of Cell Death in vivo and in vitro

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-05-01

mammalian somatic cells appear to have a finite life span that is genetically programmed ( Hayflick , 1977). Following the consummation of this program... limited situations it is possible to evaluate the proliferation kinetics of cell populations in tis- sues by autoradiographically detecting radiolabeled...are, therefore, virtually limited to the analysis of toxicity of directly active chemicals. Primary cultures of target cells retain the ability to

Electron Dynamics Within the Electron Diffusion Region of Asymmetric Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argall, M. R.; Paulson, K.; Alm, L.; Rager, A.; Dorelli, J.; Shuster, J.; Wang, S.; Torbert, R. B.; Vaith, H.; Dors, I.; Chutter, M.; Farrugia, C.; Burch, J.; Pollock, C.; Giles, B.; Gershman, D.; Lavraud, B.; Russell, C. T.; Strangeway, R.; Magnes, W.; Lindqvist, P.-A.; Khotyaintsev, Yu. V.; Ergun, R. E.; Ahmadi, N.

2018-01-01

We investigate the agyrotropic nature of electron distribution functions and their substructure to illuminate electron dynamics in a previously reported electron diffusion region (EDR) event. In particular, agyrotropy is examined as a function of energy to reveal detailed finite Larmor radius effects for the first time. It is shown that the previously reported ˜66 eV agyrotropic "crescent" population that has been accelerated as a result of reconnection is evanescent in nature because it mixes with a denser, gyrotopic background. Meanwhile, accelerated agyrotropic populations at 250 and 500 eV are more prominent because the background plasma at those energies is more tenuous. Agyrotropy at 250 and 500 eV is also more persistent than at 66 eV because of finite Larmor radius effects; agyrotropy is observed 2.5 ion inertial lengths from the EDR at 500 eV, but only in close proximity to the EDR at 66 eV. We also observe linearly polarized electrostatic waves leading up to and within the EDR. They have wave normal angles near 90°, and their occurrence and intensity correlate with agyrotropy. Within the EDR, they modulate the flux of 500 eV electrons travelling along the current layer. The net electric field intensifies the reconnection current, resulting in a flow of energy from the fields into the plasma.

Can we safely deform a plate to fit every bone? Population-based fit assessment and finite element deformation of a distal tibial plate.

PubMed

Harith, Hazreen; Schmutz, Beat; Malekani, Javad; Schuetz, Michael A; Yarlagadda, Prasad K

2016-03-01

Anatomically precontoured plates are commonly used to treat periarticular fractures. A well-fitting plate can be used as a tool for anatomical reduction of the fractured bone. Recent studies highlighted that some plates fit poorly for many patients due to considerable shape variations between bones of the same anatomical site. While it is impossible to design one shape that fits all, it is also burdensome for the manufacturers and hospitals to produce, store and manage multiple plate shapes without the certainty of utilization by a patient population. In this study, we investigated the number of shapes required for maximum fit within a given dataset, and if they could be obtained by manually deforming the original plate. A distal medial tibial plate was automatically positioned on 45 individual tibiae, and the optimal deformation was determined iteratively using finite element analysis simulation. Within the studied dataset, we found that: (i) 89% fit could be achieved with four shapes, (ii) 100% fit was impossible through mechanical deformation, and (iii) the deformations required to obtain the four plate shapes were safe for the stainless steel plate for further clinical use. The proposed framework is easily transferable to other orthopaedic plates. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observation of roton mode population in a dipolar quantum gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chomaz, L.; van Bijnen, R. M. W.; Petter, D.; Faraoni, G.; Baier, S.; Becher, J. H.; Mark, M. J.; Wächtler, F.; Santos, L.; Ferlaino, F.

2018-05-01

The concept of a roton, a special kind of elementary excitation forming a minimum of energy at finite momentum, has been essential for the understanding of the properties of superfluid 4He (ref. 1). In quantum liquids, rotons arise from the strong interparticle interactions, whose microscopic description remains debated2. In the realm of highly controllable quantum gases, a roton mode has been predicted to emerge due to magnetic dipole-dipole interactions despite their weakly interacting character3. This prospect has raised considerable interest4-12; yet roton modes in dipolar quantum gases have remained elusive to observations. Here we report experimental and theoretical studies of the momentum distribution in Bose-Einstein condensates of highly magnetic erbium atoms, revealing the existence of the long-sought roton mode. Following an interaction quench, the roton mode manifests itself with the appearance of symmetric peaks at well-defined finite momentum. The roton momentum follows the predicted geometrical scaling with the inverse of the confinement length along the magnetization axis. From the growth of the roton population, we probe the roton softening of the excitation spectrum in time and extract the corresponding imaginary roton gap. Our results provide a further step in the quest towards supersolidity in dipolar quantum gases13.

Epidemiological modeling in a branching population. Particular case of a general SIS model with two age classes.

PubMed

Jacob, C; Viet, A F

2003-03-01

This paper covers the elaboration of a general class of multitype branching processes for modeling in a branching population, the evolution of a disease with horizontal and vertical transmissions. When the size of the population may tend to infinity, normalization must be carried out. As the initial size tends to infinity, the normalized model converges a.s. to a dynamical system the solution of which is the probability law of the state of health for an individual ancestors line. The focal point of this study concerns the transient and asymptotical behaviors of a SIS model with two age classes in a branching population. We will compare the asymptotical probability of extinction on the scale of a finite population and on the scale of an individual in an infinite population: when the rates of transmission are small compared to the rate of renewing the population of susceptibles, the two models lead to a.s. extinction, giving consistent results, which no longer applies to the opposite situation of important transmissions. In that case the size of the population plays a crucial role in the spreading of the disease.

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Genetic structure is determined by stochastic factors in a natural population of Drosophila buzzatii in Argentina.

PubMed

Vilardi, J C; Hasson, E; Rodriguez, C; Fanara, J J

1994-01-01

D. buzzatii is a cactophilic species associated with several cactaceae in Argentina. This particular ecological niche implies that this species is faced with a non-uniform environment constituted by discrete and ephemeral breeding sites, which are colonized by a finite number of inseminated females. The genetic consequences of this population structure upon the second chromosome polymorphism were investigated by means of F-statistics in a natural endemic population of Argentina. The present study suggests that differentiation of inversion frequencies in third instar larvae among breeding sites has taken place mainly at random and selection is not operating to determine the structure of this population. The average number of parents breeding on a single pad seems to be similar to the number colonizing Opuntia ficus indica rotting cladodes in Carboneras, a derived population from Spain. There is no significant excess of heterokaryotypes within pads or in the population as a whole. The results obtained in the present study suggest that the potential role of selective versus stochastic factors relative to the among pad heterogeneity in the population here studied is different from that of the Spanish population previously reported. Potential mechanisms responsible for these differences are discussed.

Beyond the corporeal: Extending propertisation of body parts to derivative information.

PubMed

Bonython, Wendy; Arnold, Bruce Baer

2016-03-01

Jurisprudential consideration of property in the human body has typically conceptualised it as tangible, of finite lifespan, with limited end uses. This article offers an alternative conceptualisation: the body as information--intangible, infinite, and perpetual. Global markets in health "big data"--including population genomic data--trade this information. Emerging jurisprudence on source rights in this information are derived from jurisprudence based on the traditional, tangible, finite conceptualisation of the body--itself controversial--criticised in part for disregarding property rights vesting in the self, while recognising them in strangers. As such, it provides an uncertain foundation for extension to govern rights over derivatives, enabling disregard of legitimate concerns about health, commercialisation and genetic privacy, concerns compounded by the intergenerational nature of genetic information. A more nuanced approach, recognising that donors and strangers alike hold only weak custodial rights over access, use, and dissemination of tissues and derivative information, is required.

Spectra of Full 3-D PIC Simulations of Finite Meteor Trails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarnecki, L. K.; Oppenheim, M. M.

2016-12-01

Radars detect plasma trails created by the billions of small meteors that impact the Earth's atmosphere daily, returning data used to infer characteristics of the meteoroid population and upper atmosphere. Researchers use models to investigate the dynamic evolution of the trails. Previously, all models assumed a trail of infinite length, due to the constraints of simulation techniques. We present the first simulations of 3D meteor trails of finite length. This change more accurately captures the physics of the trails. We characterize the turbulence that develops as the trail evolves and study the effects of varying the external electric field, altitude, and initial density. The simulations show that turbulence develops in all cases, and that trails travel with the neutral wind rather than electric field. Our results will allow us to draw more detailed and accurate information from non-specular radar observations of meteors.

Modeling heat transfer and inactivation of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in precooked meat products in Argentina using the finite element method.

PubMed

Santos, M V; Zaritzky, N; Califano, A

2008-07-01

The presence of Escherichia coli is linked with sanitary deficiencies and undercooking of meat products. Recent studies have detected E. coli O157:H7 in black blood sausages. Minimum time-temperature specifications to kill the bacteria were obtained by numerical simulations of the microscopic heat conduction equation using the finite element method, and calculating the temperature profile of the sausage and the population of E. coli at the coldest point during heating. The model was validated by heating sausages in a water-bath. The effects of heat transfer coefficients and water temperatures on the required time to achieve an inactivation value (IV) of 12(log) are reported. Macroscopic heat balances were simultaneously solved to consider the temperature drop in the water batch as a function of the ratio between the mass of thermally treated sausage and the heat capacity of the system.

Metapopulation models for historical inference.

PubMed

Wakeley, John

2004-04-01

The genealogical process for a sample from a metapopulation, in which local populations are connected by migration and can undergo extinction and subsequent recolonization, is shown to have a relatively simple structure in the limit as the number of populations in the metapopulation approaches infinity. The result, which is an approximation to the ancestral behaviour of samples from a metapopulation with a large number of populations, is the same as that previously described for other metapopulation models, namely that the genealogical process is closely related to Kingman's unstructured coalescent. The present work considers a more general class of models that includes two kinds of extinction and recolonization, and the possibility that gamete production precedes extinction. In addition, following other recent work, this result for a metapopulation divided into many populations is shown to hold both for finite population sizes and in the usual diffusion limit, which assumes that population sizes are large. Examples illustrate when the usual diffusion limit is appropriate and when it is not. Some shortcomings and extensions of the model are considered, and the relevance of such models to understanding human history is discussed.

Differentiation in Coregonus zenithicus in Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Todd, Thomas N.; Smith, Gerald R.

1980-01-01

Morphological variation in Coregonus zenithicus has long plagued biologists working on Lake Superior ciscoes. Some of this variation is due to allometric growth; earlier workers incorrectly recognized large C. zenithicus as a distinct species, C. nigripinnis cyanopterus. Coregonus reighardi dymondi is a variant of C. zenithicus in northern bays of Lake Superior and Lake Nipigon. The morphological differences between members of spring and fall spawning populations of C. zenithicus in Lake Superior are no greater than those between geographically separate populations. We conclude that spawning time and geographic isolation act similarly in effecting differentiation of coregonine populations, and that populations with different spawning times do not necessarily represent different species.Key words: Coregonus zenithicus, cisco, Great Lakes, multivariate morphometrics, endangered species, taxonomy

Multiple Imputation in Two-Stage Cluster Samples Using The Weighted Finite Population Bayesian Bootstrap.

PubMed

Zhou, Hanzhi; Elliott, Michael R; Raghunathan, Trivellore E

2016-06-01

Multistage sampling is often employed in survey samples for cost and convenience. However, accounting for clustering features when generating datasets for multiple imputation is a nontrivial task, particularly when, as is often the case, cluster sampling is accompanied by unequal probabilities of selection, necessitating case weights. Thus, multiple imputation often ignores complex sample designs and assumes simple random sampling when generating imputations, even though failing to account for complex sample design features is known to yield biased estimates and confidence intervals that have incorrect nominal coverage. In this article, we extend a recently developed, weighted, finite-population Bayesian bootstrap procedure to generate synthetic populations conditional on complex sample design data that can be treated as simple random samples at the imputation stage, obviating the need to directly model design features for imputation. We develop two forms of this method: one where the probabilities of selection are known at the first and second stages of the design, and the other, more common in public use files, where only the final weight based on the product of the two probabilities is known. We show that this method has advantages in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage properties over methods where sample designs are ignored, with little loss in efficiency, even when compared with correct fully parametric models. An application is made using the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System, a multistage, unequal probability sample of U.S. passenger vehicle crashes, which suffers from a substantial amount of missing data in "Delta-V," a key crash severity measure.

Multiple Imputation in Two-Stage Cluster Samples Using The Weighted Finite Population Bayesian Bootstrap

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hanzhi; Elliott, Michael R.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.

2017-01-01

Multistage sampling is often employed in survey samples for cost and convenience. However, accounting for clustering features when generating datasets for multiple imputation is a nontrivial task, particularly when, as is often the case, cluster sampling is accompanied by unequal probabilities of selection, necessitating case weights. Thus, multiple imputation often ignores complex sample designs and assumes simple random sampling when generating imputations, even though failing to account for complex sample design features is known to yield biased estimates and confidence intervals that have incorrect nominal coverage. In this article, we extend a recently developed, weighted, finite-population Bayesian bootstrap procedure to generate synthetic populations conditional on complex sample design data that can be treated as simple random samples at the imputation stage, obviating the need to directly model design features for imputation. We develop two forms of this method: one where the probabilities of selection are known at the first and second stages of the design, and the other, more common in public use files, where only the final weight based on the product of the two probabilities is known. We show that this method has advantages in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage properties over methods where sample designs are ignored, with little loss in efficiency, even when compared with correct fully parametric models. An application is made using the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System, a multistage, unequal probability sample of U.S. passenger vehicle crashes, which suffers from a substantial amount of missing data in “Delta-V,” a key crash severity measure. PMID:29226161

Multivariate modelling of endophenotypes associated with the metabolic syndrome in Chinese twins.

PubMed

Pang, Z; Zhang, D; Li, S; Duan, H; Hjelmborg, J; Kruse, T A; Kyvik, K O; Christensen, K; Tan, Q

2010-12-01

The common genetic and environmental effects on endophenotypes related to the metabolic syndrome have been investigated using bivariate and multivariate twin models. This paper extends the pairwise analysis approach by introducing independent and common pathway models to Chinese twin data. The aim was to explore the common genetic architecture in the development of these phenotypes in the Chinese population. Three multivariate models including the full saturated Cholesky decomposition model, the common factor independent pathway model and the common factor common pathway model were fitted to 695 pairs of Chinese twins representing six phenotypes including BMI, total cholesterol, total triacylglycerol, fasting glucose, HDL and LDL. Performances of the nested models were compared with that of the full Cholesky model. Cross-phenotype correlation coefficients gave clear indication of common genetic or environmental backgrounds in the phenotypes. Decomposition of phenotypic correlation by the Cholesky model revealed that the observed phenotypic correlation among lipid phenotypes had genetic and unique environmental backgrounds. Both pathway models suggest a common genetic architecture for lipid phenotypes, which is distinct from that of the non-lipid phenotypes. The declining performance with model restriction indicates biological heterogeneity in development among some of these phenotypes. Our multivariate analyses revealed common genetic and environmental backgrounds for the studied lipid phenotypes in Chinese twins. Model performance showed that physiologically distinct endophenotypes may follow different genetic regulations.

Multiscale Characterization of PM2.5 in Southern Taiwan based on Noise-assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition and Time-dependent Intrinsic Correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, Y. R.; Tsai, C.

2017-12-01

As the WHO Air Quality Guideline indicates, ambient air pollution exposes world populations under threat of fatal symptoms (e.g. heart disease, lung cancer, asthma etc.), raising concerns of air pollution sources and relative factors. This study presents a novel approach to investigating the multiscale variations of PM2.5 in southern Taiwan over the past decade, with four meteorological influencing factors (Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed),based on Noise-assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition(NAMEMD) algorithm, Hilbert Spectral Analysis(HSA) and Time-dependent Intrinsic Correlation(TDIC) method. NAMEMD algorithm is a fully data-driven approach designed for nonlinear and nonstationary multivariate signals, and is performed to decompose multivariate signals into a collection of channels of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). TDIC method is an EMD-based method using a set of sliding window sizes to quantify localized correlation coefficients for multiscale signals. With the alignment property and quasi-dyadic filter bank of NAMEMD algorithm, one is able to produce same number of IMFs for all variables and estimates the cross correlation in a more accurate way. The performance of spectral representation of NAMEMD-HSA method is compared with Complementary Empirical Mode Decomposition/ Hilbert Spectral Analysis (CEEMD-HSA) and Wavelet Analysis. The nature of NAMAMD-based TDICC analysis is then compared with CEEMD-based TDIC analysis and the traditional correlation analysis.

Managing distance and covariate information with point-based clustering.

PubMed

Whigham, Peter A; de Graaf, Brandon; Srivastava, Rashmi; Glue, Paul

2016-09-01

Geographic perspectives of disease and the human condition often involve point-based observations and questions of clustering or dispersion within a spatial context. These problems involve a finite set of point observations and are constrained by a larger, but finite, set of locations where the observations could occur. Developing a rigorous method for pattern analysis in this context requires handling spatial covariates, a method for constrained finite spatial clustering, and addressing bias in geographic distance measures. An approach, based on Ripley's K and applied to the problem of clustering with deliberate self-harm (DSH), is presented. Point-based Monte-Carlo simulation of Ripley's K, accounting for socio-economic deprivation and sources of distance measurement bias, was developed to estimate clustering of DSH at a range of spatial scales. A rotated Minkowski L1 distance metric allowed variation in physical distance and clustering to be assessed. Self-harm data was derived from an audit of 2 years' emergency hospital presentations (n = 136) in a New Zealand town (population ~50,000). Study area was defined by residential (housing) land parcels representing a finite set of possible point addresses. Area-based deprivation was spatially correlated. Accounting for deprivation and distance bias showed evidence for clustering of DSH for spatial scales up to 500 m with a one-sided 95 % CI, suggesting that social contagion may be present for this urban cohort. Many problems involve finite locations in geographic space that require estimates of distance-based clustering at many scales. A Monte-Carlo approach to Ripley's K, incorporating covariates and models for distance bias, are crucial when assessing health-related clustering. The case study showed that social network structure defined at the neighbourhood level may account for aspects of neighbourhood clustering of DSH. Accounting for covariate measures that exhibit spatial clustering, such as deprivation, are crucial when assessing point-based clustering.

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet.

PubMed

Manuel, Douglas G; Perez, Richard; Sanmartin, Claudia; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Manson, Heather; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C

2016-08-01

Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death-the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)-was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867-0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868-0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet

PubMed Central

Perez, Richard; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C.

2016-01-01

Background Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. Methods A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. Findings The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Conclusions Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population. PMID:27529741

Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

2016-10-01

Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

Influence factors and forecast of carbon emission in China: structure adjustment for emission peak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Cui, C. Q.; Li, Z. P.

2018-02-01

This paper introduced Principal Component Analysis and Multivariate Linear Regression Model to verify long-term balance relationships between Carbon Emissions and the impact factors. The integrated model of improved PCA and multivariate regression analysis model is attainable to figure out the pattern of carbon emission sources. Main empirical results indicate that among all selected variables, the role of energy consumption scale was largest. GDP and Population follow and also have significant impacts on carbon emission. Industrialization rate and fossil fuel proportion, which is the indicator of reflecting the economic structure and energy structure, have a higher importance than the factor of urbanization rate and the dweller consumption level of urban areas. In this way, some suggestions are put forward for government to achieve the peak of carbon emissions.

Using genetic algorithms to optimize k-Nearest Neighbors configurations for use with airborne laser scanning data

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Grant M. Domke; Qi Chen; Erik Næsset; Terje Gobakken

2016-01-01

The relatively small sampling intensities used by national forest inventories are often insufficient to produce the desired precision for estimates of population parameters unless the estimation process is augmented with auxiliary information, usually in the form of remotely sensed data. The k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) technique is a non-parametric,multivariate approach...

Does Parental Monitoring Moderate the Relation between Parent-Child Communication and Pre-Coital Sexual Behaviours among Urban, Minority Early Adolescents?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santa Maria, Diane; Markham, Christine; Swank, Paul; Baumler, Elizabeth; McCurdy, Sheryl; Tortolero, Susan

2014-01-01

This study examined parental monitoring (PM) as a potential moderator of the relation between parent-child communication (PCC) and pre-coital sexual behaviours (PCSB) in an urban, minority, early adolescent population. Seventh-grade students (n = 1609) reported PCC, PM and PCSB. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess for…

Geographic variation in forest composition and precipitation predict the synchrony of forest insect outbreaks

Treesearch

Kyle J. Haynes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Andrew J. Allstadt; Randall S. Morin

2018-01-01

Evaluating the causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics in nature is notoriously difficult due to a lack of data and appropriate statistical methods. Here, we use a recently developed method, a multivariate extension of the local indicators of spatial autocorrelation statistic, to map geographic variation in the synchrony of gypsy moth outbreaks. Regression...

SELECTION AND TRAINING, A SURVEY OF IOWA MANUFACTURING FIRMS. MONOGRAPH SERIES NO. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SHERIFF, DON R.; AND OTHERS

INFORMATION ON EMPLOYEE SELECTION AND TRAINING ACTIVITIES WAS SECURED FROM QUESTIONNAIRES RETURNED BY 215 OF 283 FIRMS EMPLOYING AT LEAST 100 PERSONS. DATA FROM 207 SEPARATE ITEMS FOR EACH FIRM WERE KEY PUNCHED AND TABULATED INTO MULTIVARIATE CROSS-CLASSIFICATIONS. OVER 60 PERCENT OF THE FIRMS WERE IN CITIES HAVING OVER 25,000 POPULATION, 40…

A Multivariate Examination of Explanations for the Occurrence of Elder Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Litwin, Howard; Zoabi, Sameer

2004-01-01

The goal of the study was to determine the relative strength of four major explanations for the rise of elder abuse among a population in transition from traditional to modern culture. The study compared a sample of 120 abused elderly Arab Israelis with a control group of 120 nonabused older adults from the same background. The abuse status…

Analysis of Source Selection Methods and Performance Outcomes: Lowest Price Technically Acceptable vs. Tradeoff in Air Force Acquisitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

issues. A weighted mean can be used in place of the grand mean3 and the STATA software automatically handles the assignment of the sums of squares. Thus...between groups (i.e., sphericity) using the multivariate test of means provided in STATA 12.1. This test checks whether or not population variances and

A spline-based regression parameter set for creating customized DARTEL MRI brain templates from infancy to old age.

PubMed

Wilke, Marko

2018-02-01

This dataset contains the regression parameters derived by analyzing segmented brain MRI images (gray matter and white matter) from a large population of healthy subjects, using a multivariate adaptive regression splines approach. A total of 1919 MRI datasets ranging in age from 1-75 years from four publicly available datasets (NIH, C-MIND, fCONN, and IXI) were segmented using the CAT12 segmentation framework, writing out gray matter and white matter images normalized using an affine-only spatial normalization approach. These images were then subjected to a six-step DARTEL procedure, employing an iterative non-linear registration approach and yielding increasingly crisp intermediate images. The resulting six datasets per tissue class were then analyzed using multivariate adaptive regression splines, using the CerebroMatic toolbox. This approach allows for flexibly modelling smoothly varying trajectories while taking into account demographic (age, gender) as well as technical (field strength, data quality) predictors. The resulting regression parameters described here can be used to generate matched DARTEL or SHOOT templates for a given population under study, from infancy to old age. The dataset and the algorithm used to generate it are publicly available at https://irc.cchmc.org/software/cerebromatic.php.

A novel statistical approach shows evidence for multi-system physiological dysregulation during aging.

PubMed

Cohen, Alan A; Milot, Emmanuel; Yong, Jian; Seplaki, Christopher L; Fülöp, Tamàs; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Fried, Linda P

2013-03-01

Previous studies have identified many biomarkers that are associated with aging and related outcomes, but the relevance of these markers for underlying processes and their relationship to hypothesized systemic dysregulation is not clear. We address this gap by presenting a novel method for measuring dysregulation via the joint distribution of multiple biomarkers and assessing associations of dysregulation with age and mortality. Using longitudinal data from the Women's Health and Aging Study, we selected a 14-marker subset from 63 blood measures: those that diverged from the baseline population mean with age. For the 14 markers and all combinatorial sub-subsets we calculated a multivariate distance called the Mahalanobis distance (MHBD) for all observations, indicating how "strange" each individual's biomarker profile was relative to the baseline population mean. In most models, MHBD correlated positively with age, MHBD increased within individuals over time, and higher MHBD predicted higher risk of subsequent mortality. Predictive power increased as more variables were incorporated into the calculation of MHBD. Biomarkers from multiple systems were implicated. These results support hypotheses of simultaneous dysregulation in multiple systems and confirm the need for longitudinal, multivariate approaches to understanding biomarkers in aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining the Cervical Screening Behaviour of Women Aged 50 or above and Its Predicting Factors: A Population-Based Survey.

PubMed

Chan, Carmen W H; Choi, Kai Chow; Wong, Rosa S; Chow, Ka Ming; So, Winnie K W; Leung, Doris Y P; Lam, Wendy W T; Goggins, William

2016-12-02

Under-screening may increase the risk of cervical cancer in middle-aged women. This study aimed to investigate cervical cancer screening behaviour and its predictors among women aged 50 years or above. A population-based sample of 959 women was recruited by telephone from domestic households in Hong Kong, using random methods, and a structured questionnaire developed to survey participants. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to examine the factors independently associated with cervical screening behaviour. Nearly half the sample (48%) had never had a cervical smear test. Multivariable analyses showed that age, educational level, marital status, family history of cancer, smoking status, use of complementary therapy, recommendation from health professionals, and believing that regular visits to a doctor or a Chinese herbalist were good for their health were predictors of cervical screening behaviour. Misconceptions concerned with menopause may reduce women's perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer, especially if they are 50 or above, and exert a negative effect on their screening behaviour. Healthcare professionals should actively approach these high-risk groups-older unmarried women, smokers, those less educated and who are generally not much concerned with their health.

Social support for women of reproductive age and its predictors: a population-based study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Social support is an exchange of resources between at least two individuals perceived by the provider or recipient to be intended to promote the health of the recipient. Social support is a major determinant of health. The objective of this study was to determine the perceived social support and its associated sociodemographic factors among women of reproductive age. Methods This was a population-based cross-sectional study with multistage random cluster sampling of 1359 women of reproductive age. Data were collected using questionnaires on sociodemographic factors and perceived social support (PRQ85-Part 2). The relationship between the dependent variable (perceived social support) and the independent variables (sociodemographic characteristics) was analyzed using the multivariable linear regression model. Results The mean score of social support was 134.3 ± 17.9. Women scored highest in the “worth” dimension and lowest in the “social integration” dimension. Multivariable linear regression analysis indicated that the variables of education, spouse’s occupation, Sufficiency of income for expenses and primary support source were significantly related to the perceived social support. Conclusion Sociodemographic factors affect social support and could be considered in planning interventions to improve social support for Iranian women. PMID:22988834

Gene flow from domesticated species to wild relatives: migration load in a model of multivariate selection.

PubMed

Tufto, Jarle

2010-01-01

Domesticated species frequently spread their genes into populations of wild relatives through interbreeding. The domestication process often involves artificial selection for economically desirable traits. This can lead to an indirect response in unknown correlated traits and a reduction in fitness of domesticated individuals in the wild. Previous models for the effect of gene flow from domesticated species to wild relatives have assumed that evolution occurs in one dimension. Here, I develop a quantitative genetic model for the balance between migration and multivariate stabilizing selection. Different forms of correlational selection consistent with a given observed ratio between average fitness of domesticated and wild individuals offsets the phenotypic means at migration-selection balance away from predictions based on simpler one-dimensional models. For almost all parameter values, correlational selection leads to a reduction in the migration load. For ridge selection, this reduction arises because the distance the immigrants deviates from the local optimum in effect is reduced. For realistic parameter values, however, the effect of correlational selection on the load is small, suggesting that simpler one-dimensional models may still be adequate in terms of predicting mean population fitness and viability.

Extinction and survival in two-species annihilation

DOE PAGES

Amar, J. G.; Ben-Naim, E.; Davis, S. M.; ...

2018-02-09

In this paper, we study diffusion-controlled two-species annihilation with a finite number of particles. In this stochastic process, particles move diffusively, and when two particles of opposite type come into contact, the two annihilate. We focus on the behavior in three spatial dimensions and for initial conditions where particles are confined to a compact domain. Generally, one species outnumbers the other, and we find that the difference between the number of majority and minority species, which is a conserved quantity, controls the behavior. When the number difference exceeds a critical value, the minority becomes extinct and a finite number of majority particles survive, while below this critical difference, a finite number of particles of both species survive. The critical differencemore » $${\\mathrm{{\\Delta}}}_{c}$$ grows algebraically with the total initial number of particles N, and when $$N{\\gg}1$$, the critical difference scales as $${\\mathrm{{\\Delta}}}_{c}{\\sim}{N}^{1/3}$$. Furthermore, when the initial concentrations of the two species are equal, the average number of surviving majority and minority particles $${M}_{+}$$ and $${M}_{{-}}$$, exhibit two distinct scaling behaviors, $${M}_{+}{\\sim}{N}^{1/2}$$ and $${M}_{{-}}{\\sim}{N}^{1/6}$$. Finally, in contrast, when the initial populations are equal, these two quantities are comparable $${M}_{+}{\\sim}{M}_{{-}}{\\sim}{N}^{1/3}$$.« less

Extinction and survival in two-species annihilation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amar, J. G.; Ben-Naim, E.; Davis, S. M.

In this paper, we study diffusion-controlled two-species annihilation with a finite number of particles. In this stochastic process, particles move diffusively, and when two particles of opposite type come into contact, the two annihilate. We focus on the behavior in three spatial dimensions and for initial conditions where particles are confined to a compact domain. Generally, one species outnumbers the other, and we find that the difference between the number of majority and minority species, which is a conserved quantity, controls the behavior. When the number difference exceeds a critical value, the minority becomes extinct and a finite number of majority particles survive, while below this critical difference, a finite number of particles of both species survive. The critical differencemore » $${\\mathrm{{\\Delta}}}_{c}$$ grows algebraically with the total initial number of particles N, and when $$N{\\gg}1$$, the critical difference scales as $${\\mathrm{{\\Delta}}}_{c}{\\sim}{N}^{1/3}$$. Furthermore, when the initial concentrations of the two species are equal, the average number of surviving majority and minority particles $${M}_{+}$$ and $${M}_{{-}}$$, exhibit two distinct scaling behaviors, $${M}_{+}{\\sim}{N}^{1/2}$$ and $${M}_{{-}}{\\sim}{N}^{1/6}$$. Finally, in contrast, when the initial populations are equal, these two quantities are comparable $${M}_{+}{\\sim}{M}_{{-}}{\\sim}{N}^{1/3}$$.« less

Using Copula Distributions to Support More Accurate Imaging-Based Diagnostic Classifiers for Neuropsychiatric Disorders

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Hao, Xuejun; Liu, Jun; Peterson, Bradley S.

2014-01-01

Many investigators have tried to apply machine learning techniques to magnetic resonance images (MRIs) of the brain in order to diagnose neuropsychiatric disorders. Usually the number of brain imaging measures (such as measures of cortical thickness and measures of local surface morphology) derived from the MRIs (i.e., their dimensionality) has been large (e.g. >10) relative to the number of participants who provide the MRI data (<100). Sparse data in a high dimensional space increases the variability of the classification rules that machine learning algorithms generate, thereby limiting the validity, reproducibility, and generalizability of those classifiers. The accuracy and stability of the classifiers can improve significantly if the multivariate distributions of the imaging measures can be estimated accurately. To accurately estimate the multivariate distributions using sparse data, we propose to estimate first the univariate distributions of imaging data and then combine them using a Copula to generate more accurate estimates of their multivariate distributions. We then sample the estimated Copula distributions to generate dense sets of imaging measures and use those measures to train classifiers. We hypothesize that the dense sets of brain imaging measures will generate classifiers that are stable to variations in brain imaging measures, thereby improving the reproducibility, validity, and generalizability of diagnostic classification algorithms in imaging datasets from clinical populations. In our experiments, we used both computer-generated and real-world brain imaging datasets to assess the accuracy of multivariate Copula distributions in estimating the corresponding multivariate distributions of real-world imaging data. Our experiments showed that diagnostic classifiers generated using imaging measures sampled from the Copula were significantly more accurate and more reproducible than were the classifiers generated using either the real-world imaging measures or their multivariate Gaussian distributions. Thus, our findings demonstrate that estimated multivariate Copula distributions can generate dense sets of brain imaging measures that can in turn be used to train classifiers, and those classifiers are significantly more accurate and more reproducible than are those generated using real-world imaging measures alone. PMID:25093634

Landscape management and domestication of Stenocereus pruinosus (Cactaceae) in the Tehuacán Valley: human guided selection and gene flow

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Use of plant resources and ecosystems practiced by indigenous peoples of Mesoamerica commonly involves domestication of plant populations and landscapes. Our study analyzed interactions of coexisting wild and managed populations of the pitaya Stenocereus pruinosus, a columnar cactus used for its edible fruit occurring in natural forests, silviculturally managed in milpa agroforestry systems, and agriculturally managed in homegardens of the Tehuacán Valley, Mexico. We aimed at analyzing criteria of artificial selection and their consequences on phenotypic diversity and differentiation, as well as documenting management of propagules at landscape level and their possible contribution to gene flow among populations. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted to 83 households of the region to document perception of variation, criteria of artificial selection, and patterns of moving propagules among wild and managed populations. Morphological variation of trees from nine wild, silviculturally and agriculturally managed populations was analyzed for 37 characters through univariate and multivariate statistical methods. In addition, indexes of morphological diversity (MD) per population and phenotypic differentiation (PD) among populations were calculated using character states and frequencies. Results People recognized 15 pitaya varieties based on their pulp color, fruit size, form, flavor, and thorniness. On average, in wild populations we recorded one variety per population, in silviculturally managed populations 1.58 ± 0.77 varieties per parcel, and in agriculturally managed populations 2.19 ± 1.12 varieties per homegarden. Farmers select in favor of sweet flavor (71% of households interviewed) and pulp color (46%) mainly red, orange and yellow. Artificial selection is practiced in homegardens and 65% of people interviewed also do it in agroforestry systems. People obtain fruit and branches from different population types and move propagules from one another. Multivariate analyses showed morphological differentiation of wild and agriculturally managed populations, mainly due to differences in reproductive characters; however, the phenotypic differentiation indexes were relatively low among all populations studied. Morphological diversity of S. pruinosus (average MD = 0.600) is higher than in other columnar cacti species previously analyzed. Conclusions Artificial selection in favor of high quality fruit promotes morphological variation and divergence because of the continual replacement of plant material propagated and introduction of propagules from other villages and regions. This process is counteracted by high gene flow influenced by natural factors (pollinators and seed dispersers) but also by human management (movement of propagules among populations), all of which determines relatively low phenotypic differentiation among populations. Conservation of genetic resources of S. pruinosus should be based on the traditional forms of germplasm management by local people. PMID:22891978

R A Fisher, design theory, and the Indian connection.

PubMed

Rau, A R P

2009-09-01

Design Theory, a branch of mathematics, was born out of the experimental statistics research of the population geneticist R A Fisher and of Indian mathematical statisticians in the 1930s. The field combines elements of combinatorics, finite projective geometries, Latin squares, and a variety of further mathematical structures, brought together in surprising ways. This essay will present these structures and ideas as well as how the field came together, in itself an interesting story.

A kinetic study of solar wind electrons in the transition region from collision dominated to collisionless flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lie-Svendsen, O.; Leer, E.

1995-01-01

We have studied the evolution of the velocity distribution function of a test population of electrons in the solar corona and inner solar wind region, using a recently developed kinetic model. The model solves the time dependent, linear transport equation, with a Fokker-Planck collision operator to describe Coulomb collisions between the 'test population' and a thermal background of charged particles, using a finite differencing scheme. The model provides information on how non-Maxwellian features develop in the distribution function in the transition region from collision dominated to collisionless flow. By taking moments of the distribution the evolution of higher order moments, such as the heat flow, can be studied.

Recasting a model atomistic glassformer as a system of icosahedra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinney, Rhiannon; Bristol Centre for Complexity Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS; Liverpool, Tanniemola B.

2015-12-28

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of icosahedral structures. Upon cooling, these icosahedra organize into mesoclusters. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra which we describe with a population dynamics model. This model we parameterize with data from the temperature regime accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. We then use the model to determine the population of icosahedra in mesoclusters at arbitrary temperature. Using simulation data to incorporate dynamics into the model, we predict relaxation behavior at temperatures inaccessible to conventional approaches. Our model predicts super-Arrhenius dynamics whose relaxation timemore » remains finite for non-zero temperature.« less